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it began in healthy-looking pigs months

perhaps years ago a new corona virus

spreads silently within herds gradually

farmers started getting sick infected

people got a respiratory illness with

symptoms ranging from mild flu-like

signs to severe pneumonia the sickest

required intensive care many died

experts agree unless it is quickly

controlled it could lead to a severe

pandemic an outbreak that circles the

globe and affects people everywhere

the mission of the pandemic emergency

board is to provide recommendations to

deal with a major global challenges

arising in response to an unfolding

pandemic the board is comprised of

highly experienced leaders from business

public health and civil society we could

be looking at double the number of cases

in one week and 16 times as many in a

month if we are not able to stop the

spread that would be on the order of

half a million cases and it would

continue to rise exponentially in three

months we could be approaching 10

million cases we're at the start of

what's looking like it will be a severe

pandemic and there are problems emerging

that can only be solved by global

business and governments working

together

we have known about caps like viruses in

animals and people for decades but have

not been successful at developing a

licensed vaccine I'm sure there are new

technologies that may help but it's

going to be difficult I'm not optimistic

about having a vaccine in time to be

relevant during this pandemic so the

policy crisis in question for this board

in this meeting is this how should

government's business and international

organizations allocate and distribute

pandemic antivirals and medical supplies

to the people who need the most what

we've seen work very well in the HIV

field is in fact procurement through the

Global Fund so having a centralized

mechanism so financially financially

able to procure on behalf of affected

countries currently critical I think the

second thing the second thing is it's

going to be very important that for the

business sector for manufacturers of

anti antivirals that we have clarity

around what the need is and where the

need is and who are making the decisions

I think that given that the countries

most affected are those that are low and

middle-income countries with unequal

access to technology to to finances the

UN has worldwide footprint universally

recognized and universal membership a

global stockpile would certainly help

ensure more rational and strategic

allocation but the reality is that we

don't have the logistics capability even

within the UN to bring that together in

one place and run it so this is where I

think a collaboration between the

international organizations like the

World Health Organization and the

private sector which runs the supply

chains for many purposes every day

understand where the supplies are make

smart decisions about how to allocate

them to the people who need them in the

places that need them the most

and then work with the industry to move

those supplies from where they are today

to where they need to be just to

underscore the point that cooperation

among supply chain providers or

businesses that have huge supply chains

can

a lot of efficiency to the whole process

the question is can you through this

international mechanism really promote

commitments to doing this as quickly as

possible and give people a sense that

actually if they contribute more that

they will have a better chance of

protecting their own populations in

their country's security and health so

to be completely clear most of this

production would already be committed in

contracts yeah it is almost unheard of

that people are producing product

without having a forward commitment for

the consumption of that product so the

first thing needs to be done because

this is not something that the countries

currently control unless countries are

going to bring about emergency

situations and co-opt

an existing supply chain I think it's

not likely I agree that that countries

are not going to buy by countermeasure

to put into a global supply without

retaining a large portion of it for

themselves

public health agencies have issued

travel advisories while some countries

have been travel from the worst affected

areas as a result the travel sector is

taking a huge hit travel bookings are

down 45% and many flights have been

canceled a ripple effect is racing

through the service sector governments

that rely on travel and tourism as a

large part of their economies are being

hit particularly hard

how should national leaders businesses

and international organizations balance

the risk of worsening disease that would

be caused by the continued movement of

people around the world against the

risks of profound economic consequence

of travel and trade bans if there's some

sense that there's a UN institution that

can do all of this then III worry we're

suffering from a delusional disorder on

the power of the UN it's really

important to get those industries and

their trade associations and an

efficient leadership established which

is decentralized but has a collective

responsibility and accountability and

that needs to be supported by the public

leadership what is essential about this

non-essential travel we have to clarify

this otherwise if we go down to 20%

bookings over long periods the company

will run down that's effective you know

there's a whole complex set of issues in

a highly interdependent world on supply

chains that are just in time we need to

think about how much flex there is in

that just-in-time supply chain system

and make sure it keeps running I think

it's going to take specificity and it's

going to take knowledge that only the

private sector has the UN can play an

important coordinating facilitation role

but the companies know where those

commodities are where they move how to

move them and that's where a type of

public-private collaboration that we

have not generally add in these crises

needs to be put together pretty quickly

we are not out of money yet but the fact

is we are trending in a dangerous

direction and something needs to change

so the policy question for this board

now is how should financial resources be

prioritized are there nodes that we

cannot allowed to fail what is your

sense of priorities we don't have money

to pay for all of these urgent problems

so at the moment we want the funds right

you need the money so where's the money

so government kind of supplies our money

a lot of you know private sectors you

know some I see if you hear you have

some money but now you need a really

cold united centralized leverage hotels

will be will be experiencing you know

crippling losses doing that and we know

that the hotel business in itself makes

up 5% of the GDP governments need to be

willing to do things that are out of

their historical perspective for the

most part it's it's really a war footing

that we need to be on we shouldn't

underestimate the power of

entrepreneurship we need to escalate

that whether it's through you know the

government's help them with tax breaks

or you know subsidies of that nature to

increase the manufacturing of those

types of products it can happen quickly

a Marshall type plan you know it don't

mean if they say that exactly but a

Marshall plane they can go into effect

and stimulate a change very quickly

countries are reacting in different ways

as to how best to manage the

overwhelming amounts of disks and

misinformation circulating over the

Internet

in some cases limited internet shutdowns

are being implemented to quell panic how

much control of information should there

be and by whom and how can false

information be effectively challenged

and what if that false information is

coming from companies or from

governments I think it's very important

that we make sure that there is concise

communication with all healthcare

facilities where these patients are

being treated so that there isn't mass

panic we're at a moment where the social

media platforms have to step forward and

recognize the moment to assert that

they're a technology platform and not a

broadcaster is over they in fact have to

be a participant in broadcasting

accurate information and partnering with

the scientific and health communities to

counterweight if not flood the zone of

accurate information because it's a trek

to put the genie back in the bottle of

the misinformation and disinformation is

nigh impossible one thing we haven't

spoken about and I'm wondering whether

it's time to talk about this is a step

up from the part of the government's on

enforcement actions against fake news I

personally do not believe that try to

shut things down in terms of information

is either practical or desirable and we

do have I think a couple of strategies

that are available to is one of which is

the flood strategy second of which is

relying and informing and equipping

trusted sources of information with the

facts so they can then pass that on but

we also need to actually think about a

technological answer to this

the outcome of the Cape's pandemic an

event 201 was catastrophic 65 million

people died in the first 18 months the

outbreak was small at first and

initially seemed controllable but then

it started spreading in densely crowded

and impoverished neighborhoods of mega

cities from that point on the spread of

the disease was explosive

within six months cases were occurring

in nearly every country the global

economy was in a freefall the GDP down

11% stock markets around the world

plummeted between 20 and 40 percent and

headed into a downward cycle of fear and

low expectation businesses were not

borrowing banks were not lending

everyone was just hoping to hunker down

and weather the storm economists say the

economic turmoil caused by such a

pandemic will last for years perhaps a

decade the societal impacts the loss of

faith in government the distrust of news

and the breakdown of social cohesion

could last even longer we have to ask

did this need to be so bad are there

things we could have done in the five to

ten years leading up to the pandemic

that would have lessened the

catastrophic consequences we believe the

answer is yes so are we as a global

community

now finally ready to do the hard work

needed to prepare for the next pandemic

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