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These are the user uploaded subtitles that are being translated: 1 00:00:09,720 --> 00:00:12,837 Some people today say that companies - 2 00:00:12,920 --> 00:00:17,710 and particularly multinational corporations - rule the world. 3 00:00:17,800 --> 00:00:21,475 lt's pretty hard to believe that any kind of human organisation 4 00:00:21,560 --> 00:00:25,838 could tame the vast natural barriers of South America. 5 00:00:25,920 --> 00:00:29,196 But one company believed it could. 6 00:00:32,800 --> 00:00:37,635 By constructing a 1.5 billion dollar gas pipeline from Bolivia 7 00:00:37,720 --> 00:00:42,316 right across the South American continent to the Atlantic coast of Brazil. 8 00:00:42,400 --> 00:00:46,473 By running gas along the longest pipeline in the world 9 00:00:46,560 --> 00:00:53,272 4,000 miles from the tip of Patagonia to the Argentine capital Buenos Aires. 10 00:00:56,360 --> 00:01:01,309 Such schemes exempIify the vauIting ambition of modern capitaIism, 11 00:01:01,400 --> 00:01:04,631 but they're onIy possibIe because of one invention - 12 00:01:04,720 --> 00:01:06,039 the joint stock company. 13 00:01:10,160 --> 00:01:13,470 lf the 1 6th century had seen a revolution in money and credit, 14 00:01:13,560 --> 00:01:16,916 and the 1 7th had witnessed the birth of the bond market, 15 00:01:17,000 --> 00:01:20,151 then the next step in the story of the ascent of money 16 00:01:20,240 --> 00:01:24,199 was the rise of the joint stock limited liability company. 17 00:01:27,600 --> 00:01:31,718 But the ability of the company to transform our lives 18 00:01:31,800 --> 00:01:33,870 would depend on another innovation... 19 00:01:36,400 --> 00:01:37,879 The stock market. 20 00:01:42,720 --> 00:01:46,759 The price that people are prepared to pay for a company's shares in the market 21 00:01:46,840 --> 00:01:49,991 tells you how much money they think it'll make in the future. 22 00:01:53,800 --> 00:01:57,156 But as we have discovered in recent months of financial turmoil, 23 00:01:57,240 --> 00:02:00,437 stock markets can also be shock markets. 24 00:02:01,880 --> 00:02:04,269 The future is aIways uncertain. 25 00:02:04,360 --> 00:02:07,477 But we human beings are prone to over-optimism. 26 00:02:07,560 --> 00:02:11,553 When prices here on the New York Stock Exchange surge upwards in synch, 27 00:02:11,640 --> 00:02:15,428 it's as if investors are gripped by a kind of coIIective euphoria - 28 00:02:15,520 --> 00:02:18,910 what the former chairman of the FederaI Reserve, AIan Greenspan, 29 00:02:19,000 --> 00:02:21,753 once famousIy caIIed ''irrationaI exuberance''. 30 00:02:21,840 --> 00:02:25,071 So stock markets reaIIy can be Iike soap bubbIes. 31 00:02:25,160 --> 00:02:27,469 We never quite know when they're gonna burst. 32 00:02:30,400 --> 00:02:35,269 The exuberance was especially irrational and the burst especially painful 33 00:02:35,360 --> 00:02:40,309 for the company that proposed those vast projects in Latin America. 34 00:02:40,400 --> 00:02:46,191 Enron became the biggest corporate fraud in modern American history. 35 00:02:46,280 --> 00:02:49,078 But Enron was very far from the only corporate scam 36 00:02:49,160 --> 00:02:53,551 since shares were first bought and sold 400 years ago. 37 00:02:53,640 --> 00:02:57,474 And the shady practices it epitomised live on. 38 00:02:57,560 --> 00:03:01,758 lndeed, they've been a key cause of the financial crisis we're living through now. 39 00:03:02,840 --> 00:03:06,594 Cooked books? Stock prices rigged? 40 00:03:06,680 --> 00:03:08,671 Been there. Done that. 41 00:03:08,760 --> 00:03:10,637 For centuries. 42 00:03:10,720 --> 00:03:14,998 Nothing illustrates more clearly than the history of stock market bubbles 43 00:03:15,080 --> 00:03:19,471 how hard human beings find it to learn from history. 44 00:03:28,760 --> 00:03:30,796 STOCK MARKET HUBBUB 45 00:03:47,280 --> 00:03:50,590 Hidden away among the many splendours of Venice 46 00:03:50,680 --> 00:03:54,036 is a small clue to one of the most astonishing tales of adventure 47 00:03:54,120 --> 00:03:56,076 in all financial history. 48 00:04:02,400 --> 00:04:06,154 ''To the honour and memory of John Law of Edinburgh, 49 00:04:06,240 --> 00:04:11,598 ''most distinguished controIIer of the treasury of the Kings of the French.'' 50 00:04:12,680 --> 00:04:17,390 This is the finaI resting pIace of the man who invented the stock market bubbIe. 51 00:04:17,480 --> 00:04:20,677 An ambitious Scot, a convicted murderer, 52 00:04:20,760 --> 00:04:24,548 a compuIsive gambIer and a fIawed financiaI genius, 53 00:04:24,640 --> 00:04:28,713 he not onIy caused the first true boom and bust in asset prices, 54 00:04:28,800 --> 00:04:31,360 he aIso indirectIy caused the French RevoIution. 55 00:04:33,520 --> 00:04:38,640 There was a time when John Law owned a quarter of what is now the United States, 56 00:04:38,720 --> 00:04:42,838 only to lose it all in history's first great crash. 57 00:04:42,920 --> 00:04:47,630 From Edinburgh to Amsterdam to Paris, all the way here to New Orleans, 58 00:04:47,720 --> 00:04:52,999 and finally to Venice, Law's story is a classic tale of boom and bust. 59 00:04:53,080 --> 00:04:56,197 lt's also very much a story for our own times. 60 00:04:58,800 --> 00:05:02,076 Hidden away here in the warehouse of the Louisiana State Museum 61 00:05:02,160 --> 00:05:05,994 is the onIy known painting of John Law. 62 00:05:06,080 --> 00:05:07,559 Here he is. 63 00:05:09,280 --> 00:05:10,554 With that Iean and hungry Iook, 64 00:05:10,640 --> 00:05:13,916 he reaIIy is, for aII the worId, a Scotsman on the make. 65 00:05:21,000 --> 00:05:26,472 The path that led Law ''from obscurity to celebrity, to notoriety'' is a path 66 00:05:26,560 --> 00:05:29,870 that many of the great stock market players have followed since. 67 00:05:32,000 --> 00:05:35,390 Law was born here in Edinburgh in 1 67 1, 68 00:05:35,480 --> 00:05:40,759 the son of a successful goldsmith and heir to the estate of Lauriston. 69 00:05:40,840 --> 00:05:43,070 ln 1 694, while living in London, 70 00:05:43,160 --> 00:05:47,153 Law killed a man in a duel over a woman 71 00:05:47,240 --> 00:05:49,117 and was sentenced to death. 72 00:05:52,240 --> 00:05:56,995 Somehow, Law managed to escape from prison and fled to Amsterdam. 73 00:05:57,080 --> 00:06:00,038 He couldn't have picked a better town to lie low in. 74 00:06:05,000 --> 00:06:10,358 By the 1 690s, Amsterdam was the world capital of financial innovation. 75 00:06:10,440 --> 00:06:12,795 To help finance their war against Spain, 76 00:06:12,880 --> 00:06:16,509 the Dutch had introduced one of the world's first national lotteries. 77 00:06:16,600 --> 00:06:19,160 To protect their merchants from dodgy coinage, 78 00:06:19,240 --> 00:06:22,232 they'd created the world's first central bank. 79 00:06:23,320 --> 00:06:25,993 But the one that had the biggest impact on Law 80 00:06:26,080 --> 00:06:29,755 was the single greatest Dutch invention of them all - 81 00:06:29,840 --> 00:06:31,432 the company. 82 00:06:36,160 --> 00:06:40,711 The story of the company had begun 1 00 years before Law's arrival 83 00:06:40,800 --> 00:06:43,473 as Dutch traders spread out all over the world, 84 00:06:43,560 --> 00:06:46,916 from Manhattan lsland to the Cape of Good Hope. 85 00:06:47,000 --> 00:06:51,994 But it was Asia that became the primary target of Dutch commercial expansion. 86 00:06:52,080 --> 00:06:54,116 Why? 87 00:06:54,200 --> 00:06:57,237 The East Indies were so aIIuring because of these - 88 00:06:57,320 --> 00:06:58,594 spices - 89 00:06:58,680 --> 00:07:01,672 pepper, cIoves, nutmeg, ginger. 90 00:07:01,760 --> 00:07:05,958 Europeans craved them to fIavour their food, but aIso to preserve it. 91 00:07:06,040 --> 00:07:09,112 TraditionaIIy, they'd come overIand by the Spice Road. 92 00:07:09,200 --> 00:07:13,910 But the Dutch pIan was to fetch them the Ionger, but quicker way, by sea. 93 00:07:14,000 --> 00:07:17,390 And that pungent aroma was the smeII of money to be made. 94 00:07:24,680 --> 00:07:29,470 This painting shows the return of one of the first Dutch fleets from the East. 95 00:07:29,560 --> 00:07:34,918 The inscription reads, ''Four ships sailed to go and get the spices towards Bantam 96 00:07:35,000 --> 00:07:37,434 ''and also established trading posts. 97 00:07:37,520 --> 00:07:41,115 ''And came back richly laden to the poles of Amsterdam. 98 00:07:41,200 --> 00:07:44,192 ''Departed 1 st May 1 598. 99 00:07:44,280 --> 00:07:48,273 ''Returned 1 9th July 1 599. '' 100 00:07:52,080 --> 00:07:54,594 The Asian spice trade was so profitable 101 00:07:54,680 --> 00:07:58,309 that just one return trip could pay for the construction costs 102 00:07:58,400 --> 00:07:59,958 of a ship like this. 103 00:08:00,040 --> 00:08:03,794 But so prolonged was the journey round the Cape of Good Hope to the East 104 00:08:03,880 --> 00:08:09,318 and so hazardous that merchants had to pool their resources and their risk. 105 00:08:09,400 --> 00:08:13,837 The result was around six fledgling East lndia enterprises. 106 00:08:23,920 --> 00:08:27,196 In 1602, at the instigation of the Dutch government, 107 00:08:27,280 --> 00:08:29,396 these various companies came together 108 00:08:29,480 --> 00:08:32,870 to form the United Dutch East India Chartered Company, 109 00:08:32,960 --> 00:08:36,270 or Vereenigde Oost-Indische Compagnie for short. 110 00:08:36,360 --> 00:08:38,828 And this is its originaI charter, 111 00:08:38,920 --> 00:08:42,674 which speIIs out that the company was to enjoy a monopoIy on aII trade 112 00:08:42,760 --> 00:08:47,197 from the Cape of Good Hope aII the way east to the Straits of MageIIan. 113 00:08:47,280 --> 00:08:49,157 Pretty much haIf the worId. 114 00:08:50,240 --> 00:08:53,277 The structure of the new entity was novel. 115 00:08:53,360 --> 00:08:56,318 The capital of the company was divided unequally 116 00:08:56,400 --> 00:08:58,914 between all the major Dutch cities. 117 00:08:59,000 --> 00:09:03,278 Citizens were invited to participate in the new venture by investing. 118 00:09:03,360 --> 00:09:07,433 lt was the form of this investment that was the real novelty. 119 00:09:10,680 --> 00:09:14,798 This rather wonderfuI painting is of the famiIy of one of the founders 120 00:09:14,880 --> 00:09:18,236 of the Dutch East India Company, Dirck Bas. 121 00:09:18,320 --> 00:09:22,757 For 6,000 guiIders, he and 16 other so-caIIed ''participants'', 122 00:09:22,840 --> 00:09:26,435 became the firm's managing directors, the bewindhebber. 123 00:09:26,520 --> 00:09:30,877 After 1606, however, anyone who put his money into the East India Company 124 00:09:30,960 --> 00:09:33,838 received an ''aktie'' - IiteraIIy an ''action'', 125 00:09:33,920 --> 00:09:36,070 or as we wouId say, ''a piece of the action'' - 126 00:09:36,160 --> 00:09:38,549 a share in the company's future profits. 127 00:09:38,640 --> 00:09:41,791 And here it is, the worId's very first share certificate, 128 00:09:41,880 --> 00:09:46,112 issued by the worId's very first muItinationaI company. 129 00:09:46,200 --> 00:09:48,794 AImost exactIy four centuries ago. 130 00:09:53,920 --> 00:09:56,957 Three years later, Bas and his fellow directors declared 131 00:09:57,040 --> 00:10:01,750 that any shareholders who wanted their cash back could not have it refunded, 132 00:10:01,840 --> 00:10:04,877 but would have to sell their shares to another investor. 133 00:10:08,040 --> 00:10:12,158 Overnight, a market for the company's shares was born - 134 00:10:12,240 --> 00:10:14,470 the worId's first true stock market. 135 00:10:17,280 --> 00:10:21,068 This invention was to change the face of finance for ever, 136 00:10:21,160 --> 00:10:25,472 because it created a mechanism whereby the price of shares was determined 137 00:10:25,560 --> 00:10:30,793 by the laws of supply and demand, sellers and buyers. 138 00:10:30,880 --> 00:10:34,589 And as the renegade Scotsman John Law couldn't help but notice, 139 00:10:34,680 --> 00:10:36,750 the trading of these company stocks 140 00:10:36,840 --> 00:10:41,675 was making the world's first shareholders very rich indeed. 141 00:10:56,800 --> 00:11:02,193 By 1 61 0, the world's first joint stock company, the Dutch East lndia Company, 142 00:11:02,280 --> 00:11:04,555 was ready to conquer the world. 143 00:11:04,640 --> 00:11:10,078 lt had a new charter, new shareholders and a burgeoning trade in these shares. 144 00:11:12,800 --> 00:11:15,473 But it had to fight to survive, 145 00:11:15,560 --> 00:11:17,551 literally. 146 00:11:22,040 --> 00:11:25,874 Having established a string of factories and warehouses across South Asia 147 00:11:25,960 --> 00:11:29,839 from Java to lndia, the company had to struggle to keep the Spaniards 148 00:11:29,920 --> 00:11:32,832 and their English competitors at bay. 149 00:11:32,920 --> 00:11:36,515 With 40 warships and a private army of 1 0,000 soldiers, 150 00:11:36,600 --> 00:11:41,720 the directors of the East lndia Company were the original corporate raiders. 151 00:11:48,160 --> 00:11:50,310 For the Dutch East India Company, 152 00:11:50,400 --> 00:11:53,790 firepower and foreign trade went hand in hand. 153 00:11:53,880 --> 00:11:57,555 But the key to the company's success wasn't just its cannons 154 00:11:57,640 --> 00:12:01,030 Iike these ones aboard The Batavia, the pride of its fIeet. 155 00:12:01,120 --> 00:12:04,829 Like aII big companies, it was abIe to combine economies of scaIe 156 00:12:04,920 --> 00:12:07,195 with reduced transaction costs 157 00:12:07,280 --> 00:12:10,158 and what economists caII ''network externaIities'' - 158 00:12:10,240 --> 00:12:14,392 the abiIity to pooI information between muItipIe empIoyees and agents. 159 00:12:14,480 --> 00:12:19,110 The Batavia was part man-of-war, part muItinationaI corporation. 160 00:12:23,440 --> 00:12:27,513 The big networked company was simply more efficient. 161 00:12:27,600 --> 00:12:29,955 That was why, by the 1 620s, 162 00:12:30,040 --> 00:12:35,068 it had established a virtual monopoly on spice exports from Asia to Europe. 163 00:12:35,160 --> 00:12:41,713 The world's first multinational was making its shareholders enormously wealthy. 164 00:12:41,800 --> 00:12:44,712 I'm Iooking here at the originaI sharehoIders' register 165 00:12:44,800 --> 00:12:46,472 of the Dutch East India Company, 166 00:12:46,560 --> 00:12:48,869 and IiteraIIy every name in here was a winner. 167 00:12:48,960 --> 00:12:52,509 If you'd put 1 ,000 guiIders into the company at its very inception, 168 00:12:52,600 --> 00:12:56,593 by 1 736, your investment wouId have been worth 7,000. 169 00:12:59,000 --> 00:13:05,075 Over its entire Iifetime, the company paid an average annuaI dividend of 16.5%. 170 00:13:05,160 --> 00:13:08,596 VirtuaIIy aII its profits were paid back to the sharehoIders. 171 00:13:12,160 --> 00:13:15,948 Dirck Bas's original shareholding of 6,000 guilders 172 00:13:16,040 --> 00:13:20,636 had been transformed into a 500,000 guilder fortune. 173 00:13:29,320 --> 00:13:33,871 To John Law, lying low in Amsterdam having escaped the gallows in London, 174 00:13:33,960 --> 00:13:38,750 the workings of the Dutch East lndia Company came as a revelation. 175 00:13:38,840 --> 00:13:41,718 Law was living off his winnings at the gambling table. 176 00:13:41,800 --> 00:13:45,031 But he was fascinated by the relationships between the company, 177 00:13:45,120 --> 00:13:49,636 with its splendid offices in the Hoogstraat, the nearby stock exchange, 178 00:13:49,720 --> 00:13:54,191 where dealers busily traded the company shares, and the Bank of Amsterdam. 179 00:13:58,600 --> 00:14:04,072 Yet this Dutch financial system struck Law as not quite complete. 180 00:14:04,160 --> 00:14:08,950 To Law's financiaIIy supercharged mind, the Dutch were missing a trick, or two. 181 00:14:09,040 --> 00:14:11,156 For one thing, it seemed compIeteIy nuts 182 00:14:11,240 --> 00:14:13,993 to restrict the number of East India Company shares 183 00:14:14,080 --> 00:14:17,197 when the markets were so cIearIy enamoured of them. 184 00:14:17,280 --> 00:14:21,034 Law was also puzzled by the conservatism of the Bank of Amsterdam. 185 00:14:21,120 --> 00:14:26,274 lt had created an internal system which allowed merchants to settle their accounts 186 00:14:26,360 --> 00:14:28,590 by direct cashless transfers, 187 00:14:28,680 --> 00:14:32,389 but it hadn't issued any real banknotes to the public. 188 00:14:32,480 --> 00:14:36,678 The idea was aIready taking shape of a breathtaking modification 189 00:14:36,760 --> 00:14:41,436 of the institutions that Law had first encountered here in Amsterdam. 190 00:14:41,520 --> 00:14:46,355 OnIy combine the properties of a monopoIy trading company and a pubIic bank 191 00:14:46,440 --> 00:14:48,874 and the sky reaIIy wouId be the Iimit. 192 00:14:48,960 --> 00:14:52,669 Law was preparing to unIeash a whoIe new system of finance 193 00:14:52,760 --> 00:14:54,318 on an unsuspecting nation. 194 00:15:01,480 --> 00:15:05,473 ln 1 7 1 6, John Law arrived in Paris. 195 00:15:05,560 --> 00:15:10,873 He had identified France as the ideal laboratory 196 00:15:10,960 --> 00:15:15,556 for what would be the biggest experiment in the history of the stock market. 197 00:15:15,640 --> 00:15:18,438 But why did the French give him his chance? 198 00:15:23,800 --> 00:15:28,635 The answer is that France's fiscal problems were exceptionally desperate. 199 00:15:28,720 --> 00:15:32,395 The country was saddled with enormous public debts 200 00:15:32,480 --> 00:15:35,631 as a result of the wars of Louis XlV. 201 00:15:35,720 --> 00:15:38,314 When the Sun King died in 1 7 1 5, 202 00:15:38,400 --> 00:15:43,349 the Duke of Orleans, who was acting as Regent for the under-age king Louis XV, 203 00:15:43,440 --> 00:15:48,594 faced a country on the brink of its third bankruptcy in less than a century. 204 00:15:50,520 --> 00:15:54,229 lt was the perfect opportunity for Law, 205 00:15:54,320 --> 00:15:57,710 the maverick self-taught economist who'd developed his theories 206 00:15:57,800 --> 00:16:00,951 somewhere between the casino and the stock market. 207 00:16:03,440 --> 00:16:06,910 Law's ambition was to revive economic confidence in France 208 00:16:07,000 --> 00:16:09,195 by estabIishing a bank on the Dutch modeI, 209 00:16:09,280 --> 00:16:12,590 but with the difference that this bank wouId issue paper money 210 00:16:12,680 --> 00:16:14,830 Iike this 100 Iivres note. 211 00:16:16,600 --> 00:16:18,272 As money was invested in the bank, 212 00:16:18,360 --> 00:16:21,033 the government's huge debt wouId be consoIidated. 213 00:16:21,120 --> 00:16:25,033 But at the same time, and this was the reaIIy important part of Law's system, 214 00:16:25,120 --> 00:16:30,558 paper money wouId revive French trade, and with it French economic power. 215 00:16:31,720 --> 00:16:34,712 The Royal Government gained doubly. 216 00:16:34,800 --> 00:16:38,509 Consolidation simply meant that its onerous debts 217 00:16:38,600 --> 00:16:40,750 were magically transformed into shares in Law's bank. 218 00:16:40,840 --> 00:16:44,879 At the same time, the monarch gained the ability 219 00:16:44,960 --> 00:16:47,235 to print as much money as he liked. 220 00:16:48,840 --> 00:16:53,994 As Law wrote - ''l maintain that an absolute prince who knows how to govern 221 00:16:54,080 --> 00:16:59,279 ''can extend his credit further and find needed funds at a lower interest rate 222 00:16:59,360 --> 00:17:03,035 ''than a prince who is limited in his authority. 223 00:17:03,120 --> 00:17:08,148 ''ln credit, supreme power must reside in only one person. '' 224 00:17:12,880 --> 00:17:16,077 That absoIute power was in the hands of the Duke of OrIeans 225 00:17:16,160 --> 00:17:18,355 who Iived here in the PaIais RoyaI, 226 00:17:18,440 --> 00:17:21,477 just a short step from Law's apartment in the PIace Vendome. 227 00:17:21,560 --> 00:17:24,711 It was to him that Law now unfoIded his scheme. 228 00:17:24,800 --> 00:17:28,429 The prize was nothing Iess than the revivaI of French power 229 00:17:28,520 --> 00:17:30,476 through financiaI engineering. 230 00:17:30,560 --> 00:17:33,757 But that was onIy haIf of Law's ingenious pIan. 231 00:17:36,000 --> 00:17:38,798 As Law wrote, 232 00:17:38,880 --> 00:17:43,112 ''The bank is not the only, nor the grandest of my ideas. 233 00:17:43,200 --> 00:17:46,317 ''l will produce a work which will surprise Europe 234 00:17:46,400 --> 00:17:51,599 ''by changes more powerful than were produced by the discovery of the lndies. '' 235 00:17:56,000 --> 00:17:57,991 The second part of Law's idea 236 00:17:58,080 --> 00:18:01,959 was that a huge monopoIy trading company shouId be estabIished, 237 00:18:02,040 --> 00:18:04,918 the Compagnie d'Occident, the Company of the West. 238 00:18:05,000 --> 00:18:09,312 As he put it, the whoIe nation wouId become a body of traders 239 00:18:09,400 --> 00:18:14,793 and Law himseIf, named here as the company's chief director, 240 00:18:14,880 --> 00:18:16,677 wouId be at its head. 241 00:18:23,600 --> 00:18:27,639 The focus for this wildly ambitious scheme would be in America, 242 00:18:27,720 --> 00:18:30,917 where the French laid claim to a vast tract of land 243 00:18:31,000 --> 00:18:33,878 either side of the Mississippi - Louisiana. 244 00:18:33,960 --> 00:18:39,193 The Regent gave Law's company, what was to become the Mississippi Company, 245 00:18:39,280 --> 00:18:42,352 a monopoly on trade with the new colony. 246 00:18:42,440 --> 00:18:47,070 Frenchmen, regardless of rank, were encouraged to buy shares in the company. 247 00:18:47,160 --> 00:18:50,197 Law's name headed the list of directors. 248 00:18:56,560 --> 00:18:59,233 In modern parIance, what these documents teII us 249 00:18:59,320 --> 00:19:02,869 is that Law was attempting a refIation. And why not? 250 00:19:02,960 --> 00:19:05,713 France in 1 7 16 was in a depression 251 00:19:05,800 --> 00:19:08,758 and Law's banknotes heIped stimuIate a recovery. 252 00:19:08,840 --> 00:19:10,637 At the same time, what he was doing 253 00:19:10,720 --> 00:19:15,396 was effectiveIy transforming a burdensome and badIy managed pubIic debt 254 00:19:15,480 --> 00:19:20,315 into shares in what was a privatised tax-gathering and trade company. 255 00:19:20,400 --> 00:19:21,992 WeII, what was not to Iike about that? 256 00:19:24,960 --> 00:19:27,315 ln a fever of mass speculation, 257 00:19:27,400 --> 00:19:30,119 the Mississippi Company's share price soared, 258 00:19:30,200 --> 00:19:35,638 from the original price of 500 livres to 5,000 on September 4th. 259 00:19:37,240 --> 00:19:41,518 By December 1 7 1 9, it had reached 1 0,000. 260 00:19:43,880 --> 00:19:45,552 And this is where it aII happened. 261 00:19:45,640 --> 00:19:50,395 This was where Law's share issuing office was Iocated, the Rue Quincampoix. 262 00:19:50,480 --> 00:19:52,948 You can imagine the scenes of frenzy here 263 00:19:53,040 --> 00:19:55,634 as haIf of Paris descended on this narrow aIIeyway 264 00:19:55,720 --> 00:19:58,280 aII desperate for a piece of the action. 265 00:19:58,360 --> 00:20:01,477 The higher the share price went, the more they wanted to buy. 266 00:20:01,560 --> 00:20:04,393 It was a cIassic stock market feedback Ioop. 267 00:20:09,120 --> 00:20:14,114 lt was in these heady times that the word ''millionaire'' was first coined. 268 00:20:14,200 --> 00:20:19,957 Yes, millionaires, like entrepreneurs, were invented in France. 269 00:20:20,040 --> 00:20:25,433 And by January 1 720, John Law was the richest of them all. 270 00:20:27,520 --> 00:20:33,390 Louis XlV had said ''L'etat, c'est moi'' - ''l am the state. '' 271 00:20:33,480 --> 00:20:37,712 Now the renegade Scotsman, John Law, was able to say, 272 00:20:37,800 --> 00:20:41,713 ''L'economie, c'est moi'' - 273 00:20:41,800 --> 00:20:43,836 ''l am the economy. '' 274 00:20:48,200 --> 00:20:51,988 Ensconced in his paIatiaI suite, here in the PIace Vendome, 275 00:20:52,080 --> 00:20:53,957 that's the Ritz HoteI over there, 276 00:20:54,040 --> 00:20:58,272 Law had achieved a greater concentration of financiaI power in his hands 277 00:20:58,360 --> 00:21:01,079 than any individuaI in aII French history. 278 00:21:01,160 --> 00:21:04,948 As ControIIer-GeneraI of French Finances, he was IiteraIIy in charge of 279 00:21:05,040 --> 00:21:07,918 the coIIection of aII France's indirect taxes, 280 00:21:08,000 --> 00:21:10,116 the entire French nationaI debt, 281 00:21:10,200 --> 00:21:14,512 the 26 mints that produced the country's goId and siIver coinage, 282 00:21:14,600 --> 00:21:17,876 the Company of the Indies - better known as the Mississippi Company - 283 00:21:17,960 --> 00:21:20,315 which had a monopoIy on the import of tobacco, 284 00:21:20,400 --> 00:21:22,709 aII of France's trade with Africa and Asia, 285 00:21:22,800 --> 00:21:24,870 oh, and the Louisiana coIony, 286 00:21:24,960 --> 00:21:28,919 which covered around a quarter of what is today the United States. 287 00:21:33,360 --> 00:21:38,275 ln his own right, Law also owned the Mazarin Palace, 288 00:21:38,360 --> 00:21:42,717 more than a third of the buildings around the Place Vendome, 289 00:21:42,800 --> 00:21:47,191 more than 1 2 country estates, 290 00:21:47,280 --> 00:21:50,716 several plantations in Louisiana, 291 00:21:50,800 --> 00:21:55,430 and a hundred million livres of shares in the Mississippi Company. 292 00:21:55,520 --> 00:21:59,638 Not bad going for a man who, when he'd first come here 12 years before, 293 00:21:59,720 --> 00:22:04,748 had been identified as a joueur - a professionaI gambIer and a possibIe spy. 294 00:22:05,840 --> 00:22:10,311 By January 1 720, Law's triumph seemed complete. 295 00:22:10,400 --> 00:22:14,837 A Scots murderer was, in effect, Prime Minister of France. 296 00:22:18,600 --> 00:22:23,276 Law's problem was that he had no clear idea where to stop. 297 00:22:23,360 --> 00:22:27,592 On the contrary, he had a strong personal interest in printing more money, 298 00:22:27,680 --> 00:22:33,550 which his own bank controlled, to drive up the price of his own company's shares. 299 00:22:34,680 --> 00:22:38,150 FortunateIy for Law, both his bank and his company 300 00:22:38,240 --> 00:22:40,913 were now operating out of the very same buiIding, 301 00:22:41,000 --> 00:22:44,310 the Mazarin PaIace, which he himseIf happened to own. 302 00:22:44,400 --> 00:22:47,949 So aII he had to do in order to drive up the company's share price 303 00:22:48,040 --> 00:22:52,113 was to take a waIk down the corridor from the office where the shares were issued, 304 00:22:52,200 --> 00:22:54,395 to the office where the money was printed. 305 00:22:54,480 --> 00:22:59,110 You couId say that Law had become the uItimate insider trader. 306 00:23:03,000 --> 00:23:07,073 At root, Law's system was what we nowadays call a Ponzi scheme, 307 00:23:07,160 --> 00:23:11,233 after the legendary ltalian-American conman, Charles Ponzi. 308 00:23:11,320 --> 00:23:16,235 To pay out the generous returns it's promised to the first lot of suckers, 309 00:23:16,320 --> 00:23:20,677 a Ponzi scheme needs to take in more money from the next lot of suckers. 310 00:23:20,760 --> 00:23:24,833 ln John Law's scheme, the acquisitions of other companies 311 00:23:24,920 --> 00:23:27,150 and the generous dividends Law paid 312 00:23:27,240 --> 00:23:30,471 were financed not from company profits, 313 00:23:30,560 --> 00:23:32,755 but simply by selling new shares. 314 00:23:41,960 --> 00:23:47,080 Like aII Ponzi schemes, however, the effect of Law's system 315 00:23:47,160 --> 00:23:50,072 was to generate an unsustainabIe bubbIe. 316 00:23:50,160 --> 00:23:52,151 Law had refIated the French economy 317 00:23:52,240 --> 00:23:55,471 with a combination of paper money and pubIic confidence. 318 00:23:55,560 --> 00:23:58,916 Now, unfortunateIy, his bubbIe was about to go pop. 319 00:24:13,120 --> 00:24:15,190 By the beginning of 1 720, 320 00:24:15,280 --> 00:24:19,671 France was in the grip of a mania - the Mississippi Bubble. 321 00:24:22,240 --> 00:24:27,473 But the man responsible, the renegade Scots murderer and gambler, John Law, 322 00:24:27,560 --> 00:24:30,916 who'd risen to become master of the entire French economy, 323 00:24:31,000 --> 00:24:34,231 was about to discover an inviolable law of finance... 324 00:24:36,200 --> 00:24:38,350 Trees don't grow to the sky. 325 00:24:45,560 --> 00:24:47,710 According to Law's PR campaign, 326 00:24:47,800 --> 00:24:52,191 the huge profits he was projecting would come from the French colony of Louisiana, 327 00:24:52,280 --> 00:24:55,636 which he painted as a veritable Garden of Eden, 328 00:24:55,720 --> 00:24:58,314 inhabited by friendly noble savages 329 00:24:58,400 --> 00:25:02,188 willing to exchange a cornucopia of exotic goods. 330 00:25:02,280 --> 00:25:05,556 These would flow to France through a new city 331 00:25:05,640 --> 00:25:08,757 at the mouth of the Mississippi, New Orleans, 332 00:25:08,840 --> 00:25:13,994 named to flatter the always susceptible French Regent, the Duke of Orleans. 333 00:25:15,120 --> 00:25:17,395 All the colony lacked was settlers. 334 00:25:20,520 --> 00:25:24,274 Grasping that Frenchmen were more interested in stock market speculation 335 00:25:24,360 --> 00:25:26,590 than the hard graft of colonisation, 336 00:25:26,680 --> 00:25:30,798 Law launched a recruitment drive in the Franco-German borderlands. 337 00:25:35,600 --> 00:25:40,720 Several thousand bold Germans signed up and set sail to the promised land. 338 00:25:45,120 --> 00:25:47,918 They ended up here. 339 00:25:50,760 --> 00:25:55,072 This was the unfortunate immigrants' first gIimpse of Louisiana, 340 00:25:55,160 --> 00:25:57,151 an insect-infested swamp. 341 00:25:57,240 --> 00:26:01,028 Within a year, 80% of them had died of starvation 342 00:26:01,120 --> 00:26:03,270 or tropicaI diseases Iike yeIIow fever. 343 00:26:03,360 --> 00:26:06,989 SadIy for Law, the Mississippi Company's principaI asset, 344 00:26:07,080 --> 00:26:12,029 its monopoIy on trade with Louisiana, Iooked Iike being more or Iess worthIess. 345 00:26:16,120 --> 00:26:19,396 As the inscription on this Dutch cartoon put it, 346 00:26:19,480 --> 00:26:24,508 ''This is the wondrous Mississippi land made famous by her share dealings, 347 00:26:24,600 --> 00:26:30,630 ''which through deceit and devious conduct has squandered countless treasures. 348 00:26:30,720 --> 00:26:36,158 ''However men regard the shares, it is wind and smoke and nothing more. '' 349 00:26:39,200 --> 00:26:42,954 To Law, economic success was all about confidence. 350 00:26:44,200 --> 00:26:47,078 But this was a confidence trick. 351 00:26:49,160 --> 00:26:50,878 THUNDER RUMBLES 352 00:26:53,360 --> 00:26:56,955 ln Paris, the first rumours began to circulate 353 00:26:57,040 --> 00:26:59,634 that all was not well with Law's system. 354 00:26:59,720 --> 00:27:03,429 The share price of the Mississippi Company began to slide. 355 00:27:08,880 --> 00:27:13,271 ln a desperate bid to avert meltdown, Law called on the Duke of Orleans 356 00:27:13,360 --> 00:27:18,195 to cut the official share price from 9,000 livres to 5,000. 357 00:27:20,120 --> 00:27:23,078 This was when the limits of royal absolutism, 358 00:27:23,160 --> 00:27:27,153 the foundation of Law's system, suddenly became apparent. 359 00:27:30,520 --> 00:27:33,512 Within weeks, the share price was in freefall. 360 00:27:33,600 --> 00:27:37,354 Angry crowds gathered outside Law's bank. 361 00:27:37,440 --> 00:27:39,476 Stones were thrown, windows broken. 362 00:27:40,840 --> 00:27:45,277 By December, the shares had lost more than 90% of their value. 363 00:27:54,760 --> 00:28:00,437 This French map from 1 730 gives an absoIuteIy wonderfuI visuaI representation 364 00:28:00,520 --> 00:28:02,670 of the worId's first stock market bubbIe. 365 00:28:02,760 --> 00:28:04,751 Here at the top is the goddess Fortuna, 366 00:28:04,840 --> 00:28:08,355 pouring down goodies from her horn of pIenty. 367 00:28:08,440 --> 00:28:11,159 Here are the happy investors receiving their shares 368 00:28:11,240 --> 00:28:13,993 in the Mississippi Company from fIying cherubs. 369 00:28:14,080 --> 00:28:17,436 But down beIow, there are some other cherubs chopping up the shares 370 00:28:17,520 --> 00:28:19,158 beside a shattered printing press. 371 00:28:19,240 --> 00:28:21,879 And there are two more cherubs bIowing bubbIes. 372 00:28:21,960 --> 00:28:25,396 To the right, there are four very unhappy Iooking men, 373 00:28:25,480 --> 00:28:29,155 one of whom is preparing to commit suicide by faIIing on his sword. 374 00:28:31,800 --> 00:28:35,679 As if pricked by a sword, the Mississippi Bubble had now burst. 375 00:28:38,680 --> 00:28:44,516 lt was at this moment that Law, vilified by the French people, fled the country. 376 00:28:46,000 --> 00:28:48,719 He never saw his wife and daughter again. 377 00:28:51,160 --> 00:28:53,390 He spent the rest of his life in Venice, 378 00:28:53,480 --> 00:28:57,996 dividing his time between writing long, self-justifying letters 379 00:28:58,080 --> 00:28:59,832 and gambling. 380 00:28:59,920 --> 00:29:01,990 He died in 1 729. 381 00:29:10,840 --> 00:29:15,356 ln France, however, his devastating legacy lived on. 382 00:29:15,440 --> 00:29:20,389 Law's bubbIe and bust fataIIy set back France's financiaI deveIopment, 383 00:29:20,480 --> 00:29:25,395 putting Frenchmen off paper money and stock markets for more than a generation. 384 00:29:25,480 --> 00:29:28,119 The French monarchy's fiscaI crisis went unresoIved 385 00:29:28,200 --> 00:29:31,510 and for the rest of the reign of Louis XV and Louis XVI, 386 00:29:31,600 --> 00:29:33,477 the crown Iived from hand to mouth. 387 00:29:36,360 --> 00:29:42,196 Eventually, France was driven by royal bankruptcy to revolution. 388 00:29:50,280 --> 00:29:56,719 The Mississippi Bubble of 1 7 1 9 was the first stock market bubble in history. 389 00:29:56,800 --> 00:29:58,995 But it's been by no means the largest. 390 00:29:59,080 --> 00:30:02,470 When we think of stock market bubbles, we think of this. 391 00:30:07,400 --> 00:30:10,597 The nightmare that haunts the world of finance, 392 00:30:10,680 --> 00:30:13,797 which has returned to haunt us in the last few months, 393 00:30:13,880 --> 00:30:18,158 is that there could ever be a bust to match the Great Wall Street Crash, 394 00:30:18,240 --> 00:30:23,075 which began on October 24th 1 929, Black Thursday. 395 00:30:23,160 --> 00:30:28,473 Over the next three years, the US stock market declined a staggering 86%, 396 00:30:28,560 --> 00:30:32,599 reaching its nadir in June 1 932. 397 00:30:39,760 --> 00:30:42,638 What was worse, this asset price deflation 398 00:30:42,720 --> 00:30:45,951 was accompanied by the worst depression in all history. 399 00:30:50,520 --> 00:30:54,399 ln the United States, output collapsed by nearly a third. 400 00:30:54,480 --> 00:30:58,553 Unemployment reached a quarter of the civilian labour force. 401 00:31:04,320 --> 00:31:07,312 Why did the 1 929 crash happen? 402 00:31:09,240 --> 00:31:12,516 Why, indeed, does any crash happen? 403 00:31:12,600 --> 00:31:16,912 This remains one of the most hotly debated questions in financial history. 404 00:31:22,960 --> 00:31:27,431 There are all kinds of technical explanations for stock market crashes. 405 00:31:27,520 --> 00:31:31,229 But at root, it's all about herd psychology. 406 00:31:35,200 --> 00:31:39,273 ln a bull market, that's when share prices are rising, 407 00:31:39,360 --> 00:31:41,749 even the smartest investors can succumb 408 00:31:41,840 --> 00:31:44,673 to what the former chairman of the American Federal Reserve, 409 00:31:44,760 --> 00:31:49,311 Alan Greenspan, famously called ''irrational exuberance''. 410 00:31:49,400 --> 00:31:51,391 But when the herd changes direction, 411 00:31:51,480 --> 00:31:54,790 sometimes in reaction to nothing more than a change in the wind, 412 00:31:54,880 --> 00:32:00,000 their mood can also change from euphoria to gloom. 413 00:32:00,080 --> 00:32:02,719 The herd stampedes. 414 00:32:04,280 --> 00:32:06,236 One cow gets scared, 415 00:32:06,320 --> 00:32:10,074 and that fear just transIates to the whoIe herd and they aII take off. 416 00:32:10,160 --> 00:32:12,549 And the rest of them don't know why they're scared. 417 00:32:12,640 --> 00:32:15,632 They just feeI that fear and they run. 418 00:32:15,720 --> 00:32:20,589 Fear overwheIms aII rationaI thinking. 419 00:32:20,680 --> 00:32:22,238 UntiI it's over. 420 00:32:23,680 --> 00:32:30,233 ln market jargon, the buyers have turned into sellers, the bulls into bears. 421 00:32:30,320 --> 00:32:33,278 Despite the zooIogicaI imagery, 422 00:32:33,360 --> 00:32:36,477 the point is that markets are mirrors of the human psyche. 423 00:32:36,560 --> 00:32:39,199 Like homo sapiens, they are prone to mood swings, 424 00:32:39,280 --> 00:32:40,952 from greed to fear. 425 00:32:41,040 --> 00:32:43,031 They can suffer from depression. 426 00:32:43,120 --> 00:32:46,271 And sometimes they can experience compIete breakdowns. 427 00:32:46,360 --> 00:32:47,952 That happens rather more often 428 00:32:48,040 --> 00:32:51,077 than some financiaI theories wouId Iead you to expect, 429 00:32:51,160 --> 00:32:54,835 but not so often that we're ever quite ready for the next breakdown. 430 00:32:59,600 --> 00:33:02,034 lf movements in financial markets 431 00:33:02,120 --> 00:33:05,271 were statistically distributed like human heights, 432 00:33:05,360 --> 00:33:07,555 there would hardly be any crashes. 433 00:33:07,640 --> 00:33:11,076 Most months would be clustered around the average, 434 00:33:11,160 --> 00:33:15,631 with only a tiny number witnessing extreme ups or downs. 435 00:33:15,720 --> 00:33:20,748 Let's face it, not many of us are below four feet in height or above eight feet. 436 00:33:26,320 --> 00:33:28,595 This is the cIassic beII-shaped curve, 437 00:33:28,680 --> 00:33:31,797 where things are distributed according to their frequency - 438 00:33:31,880 --> 00:33:35,236 the most commonIy occurring cIustered here around the middIe 439 00:33:35,320 --> 00:33:39,279 and the reIativeIy rare dwarves and giants out here at the extremes. 440 00:33:39,360 --> 00:33:40,952 That's why it's quite a steep curve, 441 00:33:41,040 --> 00:33:44,112 because most human heights are quite cIose to the average. 442 00:33:44,200 --> 00:33:46,668 But if you do the same thing for financiaI markets, 443 00:33:46,760 --> 00:33:48,716 for daiIy moves in the stock market, 444 00:33:48,800 --> 00:33:52,395 you end up with something that Iooks more Iike this, 445 00:33:52,480 --> 00:33:54,630 with reIativeIy fewer smaII movements 446 00:33:54,720 --> 00:33:58,508 and reIativeIy more big movements down or up. 447 00:33:58,600 --> 00:34:04,357 And these are what the statisticians mean when they taIk about Iong or fat taiIs. 448 00:34:06,720 --> 00:34:10,030 lf stock market movements were distributed like human heights, 449 00:34:10,120 --> 00:34:14,716 a drop of 1 0% would happen only once every 500 years. 450 00:34:14,800 --> 00:34:19,510 And stock market crashes of 20% in a year would be unheard of, 451 00:34:19,600 --> 00:34:21,875 rather like people just six inches tall. 452 00:34:21,960 --> 00:34:27,273 Whereas in fact, there have been seven such crashes in the past century. 453 00:34:31,080 --> 00:34:36,234 As it turned out, those who feared that the brief panic of October 1 987 454 00:34:36,320 --> 00:34:40,029 would turn into the next great crash were proved wrong. 455 00:34:40,120 --> 00:34:44,352 The market had one really bad month, then rallied. 456 00:34:44,440 --> 00:34:49,434 But that bubble provided a golden opportunity for corporate crookery. 457 00:34:51,080 --> 00:34:54,311 What John Law's Mississippi Company had been to the bubbIe 458 00:34:54,400 --> 00:34:56,277 that Iaunched the 18th century, 459 00:34:56,360 --> 00:34:59,955 so another company wouId be to the bubbIe that ended the 20th. 460 00:35:00,040 --> 00:35:02,600 It was a company that promised its investors 461 00:35:02,680 --> 00:35:04,716 weaIth beyond the dreams of avarice. 462 00:35:04,800 --> 00:35:09,032 It was a company that cIaimed to have reinvented the entire financiaI system. 463 00:35:09,120 --> 00:35:12,590 And it was a company that used its impeccabIe poIiticaI connections 464 00:35:12,680 --> 00:35:15,433 to ride aII the way to the top of the buII market. 465 00:35:15,520 --> 00:35:21,038 Named by Fortune Magazine as ''America's Most lnnovative Company'' 466 00:35:21,120 --> 00:35:24,476 for six consecutive years, that company was... 467 00:35:24,560 --> 00:35:26,198 Enron. 468 00:35:28,200 --> 00:35:29,872 Seven years after its collapse, 469 00:35:29,960 --> 00:35:34,317 most of us have consigned Enron to the dustbin of financial history. 470 00:35:34,400 --> 00:35:38,837 Yet it pioneered many of the dubious business practices 471 00:35:38,920 --> 00:35:41,434 that continue to plague us today. 472 00:35:49,480 --> 00:35:52,074 ln the three years up to August 2000, 473 00:35:52,160 --> 00:35:55,391 shares of the Houston energy company had gone through the roof. 474 00:35:55,480 --> 00:35:59,189 Once a small-time gas company in Nebraska, 475 00:35:59,280 --> 00:36:03,114 Enron was now the fifth largest company in the United States, 476 00:36:03,200 --> 00:36:07,671 with stated revenues of 1 1 1 billion dollars. 477 00:36:07,760 --> 00:36:11,036 Enron was the darling of Wall Street. 478 00:36:14,840 --> 00:36:20,551 Yet a little historical knowledge might have made Enron's investors think twice. 479 00:36:22,960 --> 00:36:27,431 lndeed, the story of Enron was like a re-run of the Mississippi Bubble 480 00:36:27,520 --> 00:36:29,590 280 years before. 481 00:36:32,240 --> 00:36:37,712 John Law's plan had been to revolutionise French government finance. 482 00:36:37,800 --> 00:36:39,950 Ken Lay, the chairman of Enron, 483 00:36:40,040 --> 00:36:43,749 planned to revolutionise the global energy business. 484 00:36:49,800 --> 00:36:54,669 For years, the industry had been dominated by huge utility companies, 485 00:36:54,760 --> 00:36:58,992 which both produced the energy, pumped the gas and generated the electricity, 486 00:36:59,080 --> 00:37:01,196 and sold it on to consumers. 487 00:37:02,760 --> 00:37:06,912 Lay's big idea was to create a kind of energy bank, 488 00:37:07,000 --> 00:37:11,915 which would act as the intermediary between suppliers and consumers. 489 00:37:12,000 --> 00:37:17,199 His dream was to make Enron the greatest energy company in the world. 490 00:37:17,280 --> 00:37:19,953 Caught up in the heady spirit of the times 491 00:37:20,040 --> 00:37:23,271 was senior Enron executive, Sherron Watkins. 492 00:37:23,360 --> 00:37:25,555 It was very eIectric. 493 00:37:25,640 --> 00:37:28,518 You feIt Iike you couId... If you came up with a good idea, 494 00:37:28,600 --> 00:37:32,195 Enron wouId give you the money and you couId go for it at a very young age. 495 00:37:32,280 --> 00:37:35,909 Like John Law, Ken Lay had friends in high places. 496 00:37:36,000 --> 00:37:41,393 He contributed generously to George HWBush's presidential campaign. 497 00:37:41,480 --> 00:37:44,916 As President, Bush duly pushed through legislation 498 00:37:45,000 --> 00:37:47,309 that deregulated the energy industry. 499 00:37:48,600 --> 00:37:51,592 Riding a global wave of energy privatisation, 500 00:37:51,680 --> 00:37:55,559 Enron snapped up assets all over the world. 501 00:37:55,640 --> 00:37:59,952 ln Latin America alone, the company had interests in Colombia, Ecuador, 502 00:38:00,040 --> 00:38:05,672 Peru and Bolivia, where they laid a huge pipeline across the continent to Brazil. 503 00:38:05,760 --> 00:38:11,357 And thanks to the intervention of Ken Lay's personaI friend, George W Bush, 504 00:38:11,440 --> 00:38:13,829 Enron was abIe to acquire a controIIing stake 505 00:38:13,920 --> 00:38:18,072 in the Iargest naturaI gas pipeIine network in the worId, 506 00:38:18,160 --> 00:38:20,720 here in Argentina. 507 00:38:24,400 --> 00:38:26,914 Above all, however, Enron traded. 508 00:38:27,000 --> 00:38:31,039 Not only in energy, but in virtually all the ancient elements 509 00:38:31,120 --> 00:38:33,270 of earth, water, fire and air. 510 00:38:33,360 --> 00:38:37,512 lt even traded in internet bandwidth. 511 00:38:38,600 --> 00:38:43,549 Enron led a Wall Street surge unnervingly reminiscent of the Mississippi Bubble. 512 00:38:44,920 --> 00:38:49,755 Despite his half-hearted warnings against ''irrational exuberance'', 513 00:38:49,840 --> 00:38:52,195 this bull market was propelled upward 514 00:38:52,280 --> 00:38:56,273 by the chairman of the US Federal Reserve, Alan Greenspan. 515 00:38:58,840 --> 00:39:02,719 As in John Law's time, a stock market bubble could only happen 516 00:39:02,800 --> 00:39:05,030 if money was abundant. 517 00:39:06,920 --> 00:39:12,472 And by raising interest rates only once between February 1 995 and June 1 990, 518 00:39:12,560 --> 00:39:15,791 Greenspan made sure that it was. 519 00:39:15,880 --> 00:39:18,314 The rewards for investors were immense, 520 00:39:18,400 --> 00:39:21,995 and aIso for the managers here at the company's Houston headquarters, 521 00:39:22,080 --> 00:39:24,992 who were generousIy incentivised with share options. 522 00:39:25,080 --> 00:39:28,470 In the space of just three years after 1997, 523 00:39:28,560 --> 00:39:32,792 the Enron stock price rose by a factor of very nearIy five, 524 00:39:32,880 --> 00:39:36,156 from beIow 20 doIIars a share to above 90. 525 00:39:36,240 --> 00:39:39,118 It was the Mississippi Company aII over again. 526 00:39:45,760 --> 00:39:52,199 Even a city used to extravagant oil-fired living had seen nothing like it. 527 00:39:53,600 --> 00:39:57,718 This is where Ken Lay and his Enron executives used to live, 528 00:39:57,800 --> 00:40:01,509 in River Oaks, Houston's most exclusive neighbourhood. 529 00:40:01,600 --> 00:40:07,357 ln the final year of its existence, Enron paid its top 1 40 executives 530 00:40:07,440 --> 00:40:10,079 an average of 5.3 million dollars each. 531 00:40:10,160 --> 00:40:13,391 Luxury car sales went through the roof. 532 00:40:16,160 --> 00:40:20,676 (Sherron Watkins) You got muItipIes of your annuaI base pay. 533 00:40:20,760 --> 00:40:23,069 You were reaIIy Iess thought of if you got a percentage, 534 00:40:23,160 --> 00:40:25,310 even if it was 75% of your annuaI base pay. 535 00:40:25,400 --> 00:40:27,789 Oh, you were getting a percentage. You wanted muItipIes. 536 00:40:27,880 --> 00:40:30,235 You wanted two times your annuaI base pay, 537 00:40:30,320 --> 00:40:34,029 three times, four times your annuaI base pay, as a bonus. 538 00:40:36,000 --> 00:40:38,560 And Lay, the pillar of society, 539 00:40:38,640 --> 00:40:42,030 espoused the highest moral standards for his company. 540 00:40:42,120 --> 00:40:47,433 (Ken Lay) Enron is a company that deaIs with everyone with absoIute integrity. 541 00:40:47,520 --> 00:40:50,557 We pIay by aII of the ruIes, we stand by our word, 542 00:40:50,640 --> 00:40:52,870 we mean what we say, we say what we mean. 543 00:40:54,240 --> 00:40:58,028 The only problem was that, like John Law's system, 544 00:40:58,120 --> 00:41:02,033 the Enron system was an elaborate fraud. 545 00:41:02,120 --> 00:41:04,350 PHONE RINGS 546 00:41:13,160 --> 00:41:14,752 ln this tape, an Enron trader 547 00:41:14,840 --> 00:41:17,638 is discussing with the El Paso Electric Company 548 00:41:17,720 --> 00:41:20,951 how to hold California's consumers to ransom 549 00:41:21,040 --> 00:41:25,113 by closing power stations to restrict the supply of electricity. 550 00:41:34,520 --> 00:41:36,556 OK. 551 00:41:40,960 --> 00:41:44,669 The results were not only the higher prices Enron wanted, 552 00:41:44,760 --> 00:41:49,038 but also, despite there being plenty of power available, 553 00:41:49,120 --> 00:41:50,917 repeated blackouts for consumers. 554 00:41:57,120 --> 00:42:00,157 Enron's money was stolen in more ways than one. 555 00:42:00,240 --> 00:42:03,471 The company's stated assets were vastly inflated. 556 00:42:03,560 --> 00:42:09,954 But its key financial innovation was to remove its debts from the balance sheet 557 00:42:10,040 --> 00:42:14,955 and hide them in so-called ''special purpose entities'', 558 00:42:15,040 --> 00:42:18,077 dubious names like Chewco and Raptor. 559 00:42:18,160 --> 00:42:22,995 Each quarter, the company's executives had to use more smoke and more mirrors 560 00:42:23,080 --> 00:42:26,072 to make actual losses look like bumper profits. 561 00:42:27,400 --> 00:42:28,992 lt couldn't last. 562 00:42:29,080 --> 00:42:32,709 When you cook the books and then you try to hide it, 563 00:42:32,800 --> 00:42:33,755 you're toast. 564 00:42:35,040 --> 00:42:37,190 When they sensed the game would soon be up, 565 00:42:37,280 --> 00:42:39,475 Lay and his cronies started to unload 566 00:42:39,560 --> 00:42:42,074 hundreds of millions of dollars worth of shares, 567 00:42:42,160 --> 00:42:44,515 while at the same time reassuring the public 568 00:42:44,600 --> 00:42:47,194 that the share price would continue to soar. 569 00:42:49,120 --> 00:42:50,917 Like John Law's desperate attempts 570 00:42:51,000 --> 00:42:53,992 to stem the freefall of Mississippi Company shares, 571 00:42:54,080 --> 00:42:57,675 all Ken Lay's reassurances were in vain. 572 00:42:59,880 --> 00:43:06,069 On November 1 5th 2001, Alan Greenspan, head of the US Federal Reserve, 573 00:43:06,160 --> 00:43:10,676 received the Enron Prize for Distinguished Public Service, 574 00:43:10,760 --> 00:43:12,512 adding his name to a roll of honour 575 00:43:12,600 --> 00:43:16,275 that included Mikhail Gorbachev and Nelson Mandela. 576 00:43:16,360 --> 00:43:21,195 Greenspan deserved it, because without his monetary policies in the late '90s, 577 00:43:21,280 --> 00:43:25,114 the Enron bubble, and the dotcom bubble that coincided with it, 578 00:43:25,200 --> 00:43:27,475 would surely have been impossible. 579 00:43:30,480 --> 00:43:35,600 Just two weeks after the award ceremony, Enron filed for bankruptcy. 580 00:43:35,680 --> 00:43:38,717 The company owed billions. 581 00:43:38,800 --> 00:43:40,791 But just how many billions? 582 00:43:42,600 --> 00:43:45,398 When Enron decIared bankruptcy, December 2001 , 583 00:43:45,480 --> 00:43:49,393 they met with their creditors to say, 584 00:43:49,480 --> 00:43:52,756 ''Erm, guys, I know on our baIance sheet, 585 00:43:52,840 --> 00:43:56,389 ''we have reported 13 biIIion doIIars of Iong-term debt. 586 00:43:56,480 --> 00:44:00,951 ''Our true Iong-term debt picture is 38 biIIion doIIars. 587 00:44:01,040 --> 00:44:05,989 ''There's 25 biIIion doIIars in off-baIance-sheet debt''. 588 00:44:06,080 --> 00:44:07,957 (NiaII Ferguson) Did those numbers come as a shock to you? 589 00:44:08,040 --> 00:44:09,917 You knew there were probIems, but not on that scaIe. 590 00:44:10,000 --> 00:44:13,231 Yes, I mean, I think we were aII fIabbergasted. 591 00:44:16,000 --> 00:44:22,030 The day before 4,500 employees at Enron's HQ were given their marching orders, 592 00:44:22,120 --> 00:44:26,238 a final round of bonus cheques were issued to grateful executives. 593 00:44:28,760 --> 00:44:35,472 ln May 2006, Ken Lay was convicted on all six counts of securities and wire fraud. 594 00:44:35,560 --> 00:44:40,111 His sidekick, Jeffrey Skilling, was sentenced to 24 years in prison. 595 00:44:42,920 --> 00:44:47,869 Lay died before sentencing, while on holiday in Aspen, Colorado. 596 00:44:49,320 --> 00:44:53,279 Yet the fraudulent practices that propelled Enron's rise and fall 597 00:44:53,360 --> 00:44:55,510 didn't die with Ken Lay. 598 00:44:56,640 --> 00:45:01,475 On the contrary, the habit of hiding debt off-balance-sheet 599 00:45:01,560 --> 00:45:06,395 that Enron pioneered subsequently spread throughout the Western financial system. 600 00:45:07,480 --> 00:45:09,994 The unravelling of this dodgy accounting 601 00:45:10,080 --> 00:45:13,277 has been a key component of the current crisis. 602 00:45:13,360 --> 00:45:17,831 In many respects, I think the Enron probIem was in a Petri dish 603 00:45:17,920 --> 00:45:21,469 and the germ has spread throughout the financiaI markets. 604 00:45:21,560 --> 00:45:25,155 Some of which comes from Enron traders and finance foIks 605 00:45:25,240 --> 00:45:28,596 that are gainfuIIy empIoyed at banks and energy trading houses. 606 00:45:28,680 --> 00:45:32,229 So that rot is everywhere in the financiaI markets. 607 00:45:39,120 --> 00:45:45,036 The joint stock Iimited IiabiIity company truIy is a miracuIous institution. 608 00:45:45,120 --> 00:45:47,156 And yet throughout financiaI history, 609 00:45:47,240 --> 00:45:50,073 there have aIways been a few crooked companies, 610 00:45:50,160 --> 00:45:53,152 just as there have occasionaIIy been irrationaI markets. 611 00:45:53,240 --> 00:45:55,196 Indeed, the two go hand in hand, 612 00:45:55,280 --> 00:45:59,512 because it's preciseIy when the buIIs are stampeding most enthusiasticaIIy 613 00:45:59,600 --> 00:46:04,071 that peopIe are most IikeIy to get taken for the proverbiaI ride. 614 00:46:05,160 --> 00:46:08,596 THUNDER RUMBLES 615 00:46:08,680 --> 00:46:10,238 As we've seen in the past year, 616 00:46:10,320 --> 00:46:14,552 the path of financial markets can never be as smooth as we would like. 617 00:46:14,640 --> 00:46:17,359 Since the current credit crunch began, 618 00:46:17,440 --> 00:46:22,150 some stock markets around the world have fallen by as much as 50%. 619 00:46:26,080 --> 00:46:28,548 So long as human expectations of the future veer 620 00:46:28,640 --> 00:46:32,918 from the over-optimistic to the over-pessimistic, from greed to fear, 621 00:46:33,000 --> 00:46:35,992 stock prices will tend to trace a line 622 00:46:36,080 --> 00:46:39,993 not unlike the jagged and irregular peaks of the Andes. 623 00:46:41,640 --> 00:46:43,596 As an investor, you just have to hope 624 00:46:43,680 --> 00:46:47,036 that when you have to come down from the summit of euphoria, 625 00:46:47,120 --> 00:46:51,830 it'll be on a nice, smooth ski-slope, and not over a sheer cliff. 626 00:46:53,320 --> 00:46:57,313 But is there nothing we can do to protect ourselves 627 00:46:57,400 --> 00:46:59,834 from real and metaphorical falls? 628 00:47:00,800 --> 00:47:04,315 As we'll see in the next episode of The Ascent Of Money, 629 00:47:04,400 --> 00:47:08,632 finance is as much about risk as it is about return. 630 00:47:08,720 --> 00:47:10,438 And the big question is, 631 00:47:10,520 --> 00:47:11,919 are you insured? 632 00:47:12,000 --> 00:47:14,798 Or are you hedged? 58381

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