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Some people today say that companies -
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and particularly multinational
corporations - rule the world.
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lt's pretty hard to believe
that any kind of human organisation
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could tame the vast natural barriers
of South America.
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But one company believed it could.
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By constructing a 1.5 billion dollar
gas pipeline from Bolivia
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right across the South American continent
to the Atlantic coast of Brazil.
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By running gas along
the longest pipeline in the world
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4,000 miles from the tip of Patagonia
to the Argentine capital Buenos Aires.
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Such schemes exempIify the vauIting
ambition of modern capitaIism,
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but they're onIy possibIe
because of one invention -
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the joint stock company.
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lf the 1 6th century had seen
a revolution in money and credit,
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and the 1 7th had witnessed
the birth of the bond market,
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then the next step in the story
of the ascent of money
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was the rise of the joint stock
limited liability company.
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But the ability of the company
to transform our lives
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would depend on another innovation...
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The stock market.
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The price that people are prepared to pay
for a company's shares in the market
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tells you how much money
they think it'll make in the future.
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But as we have discovered
in recent months of financial turmoil,
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stock markets can also be shock markets.
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The future is aIways uncertain.
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But we human beings
are prone to over-optimism.
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When prices here on the New York Stock
Exchange surge upwards in synch,
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it's as if investors are gripped
by a kind of coIIective euphoria -
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what the former chairman of
the FederaI Reserve, AIan Greenspan,
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once famousIy caIIed
''irrationaI exuberance''.
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So stock markets reaIIy can be
Iike soap bubbIes.
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We never quite know
when they're gonna burst.
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The exuberance was especially irrational
and the burst especially painful
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for the company that proposed
those vast projects in Latin America.
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Enron became the biggest corporate fraud
in modern American history.
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But Enron was very far
from the only corporate scam
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since shares were first bought and sold
400 years ago.
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And the shady practices
it epitomised live on.
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lndeed, they've been a key cause of the
financial crisis we're living through now.
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Cooked books? Stock prices rigged?
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Been there. Done that.
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For centuries.
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Nothing illustrates more clearly
than the history of stock market bubbles
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how hard human beings find it
to learn from history.
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STOCK MARKET HUBBUB
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Hidden away among
the many splendours of Venice
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is a small clue to one of the most
astonishing tales of adventure
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in all financial history.
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''To the honour and memory
of John Law of Edinburgh,
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''most distinguished controIIer of
the treasury of the Kings of the French.''
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This is the finaI resting pIace of the man
who invented the stock market bubbIe.
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An ambitious Scot, a convicted murderer,
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a compuIsive gambIer
and a fIawed financiaI genius,
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he not onIy caused the first true
boom and bust in asset prices,
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he aIso indirectIy caused
the French RevoIution.
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There was a time when John Law owned a
quarter of what is now the United States,
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only to lose it all in history's
first great crash.
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From Edinburgh to Amsterdam to Paris,
all the way here to New Orleans,
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and finally to Venice, Law's story
is a classic tale of boom and bust.
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lt's also very much a story
for our own times.
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Hidden away here in the warehouse
of the Louisiana State Museum
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is the onIy known painting of John Law.
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Here he is.
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With that Iean and hungry Iook,
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he reaIIy is, for aII the worId,
a Scotsman on the make.
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The path that led Law ''from obscurity
to celebrity, to notoriety'' is a path
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that many of the great stock market
players have followed since.
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00:05:32,000 --> 00:05:35,390
Law was born here
in Edinburgh in 1 67 1,
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the son of a successful goldsmith
and heir to the estate of Lauriston.
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00:05:40,840 --> 00:05:43,070
ln 1 694, while living in London,
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Law killed a man in a duel over a woman
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and was sentenced to death.
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Somehow, Law managed to escape
from prison and fled to Amsterdam.
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He couldn't have picked
a better town to lie low in.
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By the 1 690s, Amsterdam was
the world capital of financial innovation.
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To help finance their war against Spain,
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the Dutch had introduced one
of the world's first national lotteries.
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To protect their merchants
from dodgy coinage,
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they'd created the world's
first central bank.
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But the one that had
the biggest impact on Law
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was the single greatest
Dutch invention of them all -
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the company.
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The story of the company had begun
1 00 years before Law's arrival
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as Dutch traders spread out
all over the world,
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from Manhattan lsland
to the Cape of Good Hope.
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But it was Asia that became the primary
target of Dutch commercial expansion.
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Why?
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The East Indies were so aIIuring
because of these -
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spices -
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pepper, cIoves, nutmeg, ginger.
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Europeans craved them to fIavour
their food, but aIso to preserve it.
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00:07:06,040 --> 00:07:09,112
TraditionaIIy, they'd come overIand
by the Spice Road.
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But the Dutch pIan was to fetch them
the Ionger, but quicker way, by sea.
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And that pungent aroma
was the smeII of money to be made.
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This painting shows the return of one
of the first Dutch fleets from the East.
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The inscription reads, ''Four ships sailed
to go and get the spices towards Bantam
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''and also established trading posts.
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''And came back richly laden
to the poles of Amsterdam.
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''Departed 1 st May 1 598.
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''Returned 1 9th July 1 599. ''
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The Asian spice trade was so profitable
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that just one return trip could pay
for the construction costs
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of a ship like this.
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00:08:00,040 --> 00:08:03,794
But so prolonged was the journey round
the Cape of Good Hope to the East
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and so hazardous that merchants had
to pool their resources and their risk.
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The result was around six fledgling
East lndia enterprises.
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In 1602, at the instigation
of the Dutch government,
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these various companies came together
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to form the United Dutch East India
Chartered Company,
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or Vereenigde Oost-Indische Compagnie
for short.
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00:08:36,360 --> 00:08:38,828
And this is its originaI charter,
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which speIIs out that the company
was to enjoy a monopoIy on aII trade
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from the Cape of Good Hope aII the way
east to the Straits of MageIIan.
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Pretty much haIf the worId.
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00:08:50,240 --> 00:08:53,277
The structure of the new entity was novel.
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The capital of the company
was divided unequally
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between all the major Dutch cities.
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Citizens were invited to participate
in the new venture by investing.
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lt was the form of this investment
that was the real novelty.
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This rather wonderfuI painting is
of the famiIy of one of the founders
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of the Dutch East India Company,
Dirck Bas.
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For 6,000 guiIders,
he and 16 other so-caIIed ''participants'',
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became the firm's managing directors,
the bewindhebber.
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00:09:26,520 --> 00:09:30,877
After 1606, however, anyone who put
his money into the East India Company
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received an ''aktie'' -
IiteraIIy an ''action'',
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or as we wouId say,
''a piece of the action'' -
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a share in the company's future profits.
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And here it is, the worId's
very first share certificate,
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issued by the worId's
very first muItinationaI company.
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AImost exactIy four centuries ago.
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00:09:53,920 --> 00:09:56,957
Three years later,
Bas and his fellow directors declared
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that any shareholders who wanted their
cash back could not have it refunded,
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but would have to sell their shares
to another investor.
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00:10:08,040 --> 00:10:12,158
Overnight, a market for
the company's shares was born -
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the worId's first true stock market.
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00:10:17,280 --> 00:10:21,068
This invention was to change
the face of finance for ever,
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because it created a mechanism whereby
the price of shares was determined
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by the laws of supply and demand,
sellers and buyers.
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And as the renegade Scotsman
John Law couldn't help but notice,
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the trading of these company stocks
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was making the world's
first shareholders very rich indeed.
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By 1 61 0, the world's first joint stock
company, the Dutch East lndia Company,
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was ready to conquer the world.
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lt had a new charter, new shareholders
and a burgeoning trade in these shares.
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00:11:12,800 --> 00:11:15,473
But it had to fight to survive,
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literally.
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Having established a string of factories
and warehouses across South Asia
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from Java to lndia, the company
had to struggle to keep the Spaniards
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and their English competitors at bay.
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00:11:32,920 --> 00:11:36,515
With 40 warships and a private army
of 1 0,000 soldiers,
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00:11:36,600 --> 00:11:41,720
the directors of the East lndia Company
were the original corporate raiders.
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00:11:48,160 --> 00:11:50,310
For the Dutch East India Company,
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firepower and foreign trade
went hand in hand.
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00:11:53,880 --> 00:11:57,555
But the key to the company's success
wasn't just its cannons
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Iike these ones aboard The Batavia,
the pride of its fIeet.
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00:12:01,120 --> 00:12:04,829
Like aII big companies, it was abIe
to combine economies of scaIe
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with reduced transaction costs
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00:12:07,280 --> 00:12:10,158
and what economists caII
''network externaIities'' -
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00:12:10,240 --> 00:12:14,392
the abiIity to pooI information between
muItipIe empIoyees and agents.
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00:12:14,480 --> 00:12:19,110
The Batavia was part man-of-war,
part muItinationaI corporation.
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00:12:23,440 --> 00:12:27,513
The big networked company
was simply more efficient.
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That was why, by the 1 620s,
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it had established a virtual monopoly
on spice exports from Asia to Europe.
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The world's first multinational was making
its shareholders enormously wealthy.
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00:12:41,800 --> 00:12:44,712
I'm Iooking here
at the originaI sharehoIders' register
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of the Dutch East India Company,
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and IiteraIIy every name in here
was a winner.
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If you'd put 1 ,000 guiIders
into the company at its very inception,
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by 1 736, your investment
wouId have been worth 7,000.
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00:12:59,000 --> 00:13:05,075
Over its entire Iifetime, the company
paid an average annuaI dividend of 16.5%.
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00:13:05,160 --> 00:13:08,596
VirtuaIIy aII its profits were paid back
to the sharehoIders.
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00:13:12,160 --> 00:13:15,948
Dirck Bas's original shareholding
of 6,000 guilders
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00:13:16,040 --> 00:13:20,636
had been transformed
into a 500,000 guilder fortune.
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00:13:29,320 --> 00:13:33,871
To John Law, lying low in Amsterdam
having escaped the gallows in London,
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00:13:33,960 --> 00:13:38,750
the workings of the Dutch East lndia
Company came as a revelation.
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Law was living off his winnings
at the gambling table.
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But he was fascinated by the relationships
between the company,
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00:13:45,120 --> 00:13:49,636
with its splendid offices in the
Hoogstraat, the nearby stock exchange,
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00:13:49,720 --> 00:13:54,191
where dealers busily traded the company
shares, and the Bank of Amsterdam.
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00:13:58,600 --> 00:14:04,072
Yet this Dutch financial system
struck Law as not quite complete.
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00:14:04,160 --> 00:14:08,950
To Law's financiaIIy supercharged mind,
the Dutch were missing a trick, or two.
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00:14:09,040 --> 00:14:11,156
For one thing, it seemed compIeteIy nuts
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00:14:11,240 --> 00:14:13,993
to restrict the number
of East India Company shares
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00:14:14,080 --> 00:14:17,197
when the markets
were so cIearIy enamoured of them.
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00:14:17,280 --> 00:14:21,034
Law was also puzzled by the conservatism
of the Bank of Amsterdam.
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00:14:21,120 --> 00:14:26,274
lt had created an internal system which
allowed merchants to settle their accounts
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by direct cashless transfers,
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00:14:28,680 --> 00:14:32,389
but it hadn't issued
any real banknotes to the public.
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00:14:32,480 --> 00:14:36,678
The idea was aIready taking shape
of a breathtaking modification
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00:14:36,760 --> 00:14:41,436
of the institutions that Law
had first encountered here in Amsterdam.
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00:14:41,520 --> 00:14:46,355
OnIy combine the properties of a monopoIy
trading company and a pubIic bank
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00:14:46,440 --> 00:14:48,874
and the sky reaIIy wouId be the Iimit.
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00:14:48,960 --> 00:14:52,669
Law was preparing to unIeash
a whoIe new system of finance
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00:14:52,760 --> 00:14:54,318
on an unsuspecting nation.
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00:15:01,480 --> 00:15:05,473
ln 1 7 1 6, John Law arrived in Paris.
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00:15:05,560 --> 00:15:10,873
He had identified France
as the ideal laboratory
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00:15:10,960 --> 00:15:15,556
for what would be the biggest experiment
in the history of the stock market.
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00:15:15,640 --> 00:15:18,438
But why did the French
give him his chance?
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00:15:23,800 --> 00:15:28,635
The answer is that France's fiscal
problems were exceptionally desperate.
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00:15:28,720 --> 00:15:32,395
The country was saddled
with enormous public debts
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00:15:32,480 --> 00:15:35,631
as a result of the wars of Louis XlV.
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00:15:35,720 --> 00:15:38,314
When the Sun King died in 1 7 1 5,
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00:15:38,400 --> 00:15:43,349
the Duke of Orleans, who was acting as
Regent for the under-age king Louis XV,
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00:15:43,440 --> 00:15:48,594
faced a country on the brink of its third
bankruptcy in less than a century.
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00:15:50,520 --> 00:15:54,229
lt was the perfect opportunity for Law,
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00:15:54,320 --> 00:15:57,710
the maverick self-taught economist
who'd developed his theories
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00:15:57,800 --> 00:16:00,951
somewhere between the casino
and the stock market.
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00:16:03,440 --> 00:16:06,910
Law's ambition was to revive
economic confidence in France
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00:16:07,000 --> 00:16:09,195
by estabIishing a bank
on the Dutch modeI,
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00:16:09,280 --> 00:16:12,590
but with the difference that this bank
wouId issue paper money
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Iike this 100 Iivres note.
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00:16:16,600 --> 00:16:18,272
As money was invested in the bank,
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00:16:18,360 --> 00:16:21,033
the government's huge debt
wouId be consoIidated.
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00:16:21,120 --> 00:16:25,033
But at the same time, and this was
the reaIIy important part of Law's system,
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00:16:25,120 --> 00:16:30,558
paper money wouId revive French trade,
and with it French economic power.
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00:16:31,720 --> 00:16:34,712
The Royal Government gained doubly.
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00:16:34,800 --> 00:16:38,509
Consolidation simply meant
that its onerous debts
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00:16:38,600 --> 00:16:40,750
were magically transformed
into shares in Law's bank.
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00:16:40,840 --> 00:16:44,879
At the same time,
the monarch gained the ability
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00:16:44,960 --> 00:16:47,235
to print as much money as he liked.
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00:16:48,840 --> 00:16:53,994
As Law wrote - ''l maintain that an
absolute prince who knows how to govern
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00:16:54,080 --> 00:16:59,279
''can extend his credit further and find
needed funds at a lower interest rate
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00:16:59,360 --> 00:17:03,035
''than a prince
who is limited in his authority.
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00:17:03,120 --> 00:17:08,148
''ln credit, supreme power
must reside in only one person. ''
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00:17:12,880 --> 00:17:16,077
That absoIute power
was in the hands of the Duke of OrIeans
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00:17:16,160 --> 00:17:18,355
who Iived here in the PaIais RoyaI,
226
00:17:18,440 --> 00:17:21,477
just a short step from Law's apartment
in the PIace Vendome.
227
00:17:21,560 --> 00:17:24,711
It was to him that Law
now unfoIded his scheme.
228
00:17:24,800 --> 00:17:28,429
The prize was nothing Iess
than the revivaI of French power
229
00:17:28,520 --> 00:17:30,476
through financiaI engineering.
230
00:17:30,560 --> 00:17:33,757
But that was onIy haIf
of Law's ingenious pIan.
231
00:17:36,000 --> 00:17:38,798
As Law wrote,
232
00:17:38,880 --> 00:17:43,112
''The bank is not the only,
nor the grandest of my ideas.
233
00:17:43,200 --> 00:17:46,317
''l will produce a work
which will surprise Europe
234
00:17:46,400 --> 00:17:51,599
''by changes more powerful than were
produced by the discovery of the lndies. ''
235
00:17:56,000 --> 00:17:57,991
The second part of Law's idea
236
00:17:58,080 --> 00:18:01,959
was that a huge monopoIy
trading company shouId be estabIished,
237
00:18:02,040 --> 00:18:04,918
the Compagnie d'Occident,
the Company of the West.
238
00:18:05,000 --> 00:18:09,312
As he put it, the whoIe nation
wouId become a body of traders
239
00:18:09,400 --> 00:18:14,793
and Law himseIf, named here
as the company's chief director,
240
00:18:14,880 --> 00:18:16,677
wouId be at its head.
241
00:18:23,600 --> 00:18:27,639
The focus for this wildly ambitious
scheme would be in America,
242
00:18:27,720 --> 00:18:30,917
where the French laid claim
to a vast tract of land
243
00:18:31,000 --> 00:18:33,878
either side of the Mississippi -
Louisiana.
244
00:18:33,960 --> 00:18:39,193
The Regent gave Law's company, what
was to become the Mississippi Company,
245
00:18:39,280 --> 00:18:42,352
a monopoly on trade with the new colony.
246
00:18:42,440 --> 00:18:47,070
Frenchmen, regardless of rank, were
encouraged to buy shares in the company.
247
00:18:47,160 --> 00:18:50,197
Law's name headed the list of directors.
248
00:18:56,560 --> 00:18:59,233
In modern parIance,
what these documents teII us
249
00:18:59,320 --> 00:19:02,869
is that Law was attempting
a refIation. And why not?
250
00:19:02,960 --> 00:19:05,713
France in 1 7 16 was in a depression
251
00:19:05,800 --> 00:19:08,758
and Law's banknotes
heIped stimuIate a recovery.
252
00:19:08,840 --> 00:19:10,637
At the same time, what he was doing
253
00:19:10,720 --> 00:19:15,396
was effectiveIy transforming a burdensome
and badIy managed pubIic debt
254
00:19:15,480 --> 00:19:20,315
into shares in what was a privatised
tax-gathering and trade company.
255
00:19:20,400 --> 00:19:21,992
WeII, what was not to Iike about that?
256
00:19:24,960 --> 00:19:27,315
ln a fever of mass speculation,
257
00:19:27,400 --> 00:19:30,119
the Mississippi Company's
share price soared,
258
00:19:30,200 --> 00:19:35,638
from the original price of 500 livres
to 5,000 on September 4th.
259
00:19:37,240 --> 00:19:41,518
By December 1 7 1 9,
it had reached 1 0,000.
260
00:19:43,880 --> 00:19:45,552
And this is where it aII happened.
261
00:19:45,640 --> 00:19:50,395
This was where Law's share issuing office
was Iocated, the Rue Quincampoix.
262
00:19:50,480 --> 00:19:52,948
You can imagine the scenes of frenzy here
263
00:19:53,040 --> 00:19:55,634
as haIf of Paris descended
on this narrow aIIeyway
264
00:19:55,720 --> 00:19:58,280
aII desperate for a piece of the action.
265
00:19:58,360 --> 00:20:01,477
The higher the share price went,
the more they wanted to buy.
266
00:20:01,560 --> 00:20:04,393
It was a cIassic stock market
feedback Ioop.
267
00:20:09,120 --> 00:20:14,114
lt was in these heady times that the word
''millionaire'' was first coined.
268
00:20:14,200 --> 00:20:19,957
Yes, millionaires, like entrepreneurs,
were invented in France.
269
00:20:20,040 --> 00:20:25,433
And by January 1 720,
John Law was the richest of them all.
270
00:20:27,520 --> 00:20:33,390
Louis XlV had said ''L'etat, c'est moi'' -
''l am the state. ''
271
00:20:33,480 --> 00:20:37,712
Now the renegade Scotsman,
John Law, was able to say,
272
00:20:37,800 --> 00:20:41,713
''L'economie, c'est moi'' -
273
00:20:41,800 --> 00:20:43,836
''l am the economy. ''
274
00:20:48,200 --> 00:20:51,988
Ensconced in his paIatiaI suite,
here in the PIace Vendome,
275
00:20:52,080 --> 00:20:53,957
that's the Ritz HoteI over there,
276
00:20:54,040 --> 00:20:58,272
Law had achieved a greater concentration
of financiaI power in his hands
277
00:20:58,360 --> 00:21:01,079
than any individuaI in aII French history.
278
00:21:01,160 --> 00:21:04,948
As ControIIer-GeneraI of French Finances,
he was IiteraIIy in charge of
279
00:21:05,040 --> 00:21:07,918
the coIIection
of aII France's indirect taxes,
280
00:21:08,000 --> 00:21:10,116
the entire French nationaI debt,
281
00:21:10,200 --> 00:21:14,512
the 26 mints that produced
the country's goId and siIver coinage,
282
00:21:14,600 --> 00:21:17,876
the Company of the Indies -
better known as the Mississippi Company -
283
00:21:17,960 --> 00:21:20,315
which had a monopoIy
on the import of tobacco,
284
00:21:20,400 --> 00:21:22,709
aII of France's trade
with Africa and Asia,
285
00:21:22,800 --> 00:21:24,870
oh, and the Louisiana coIony,
286
00:21:24,960 --> 00:21:28,919
which covered around a quarter
of what is today the United States.
287
00:21:33,360 --> 00:21:38,275
ln his own right,
Law also owned the Mazarin Palace,
288
00:21:38,360 --> 00:21:42,717
more than a third of the buildings
around the Place Vendome,
289
00:21:42,800 --> 00:21:47,191
more than 1 2 country estates,
290
00:21:47,280 --> 00:21:50,716
several plantations in Louisiana,
291
00:21:50,800 --> 00:21:55,430
and a hundred million livres of shares
in the Mississippi Company.
292
00:21:55,520 --> 00:21:59,638
Not bad going for a man who, when
he'd first come here 12 years before,
293
00:21:59,720 --> 00:22:04,748
had been identified as a joueur -
a professionaI gambIer and a possibIe spy.
294
00:22:05,840 --> 00:22:10,311
By January 1 720,
Law's triumph seemed complete.
295
00:22:10,400 --> 00:22:14,837
A Scots murderer was, in effect,
Prime Minister of France.
296
00:22:18,600 --> 00:22:23,276
Law's problem was that he had
no clear idea where to stop.
297
00:22:23,360 --> 00:22:27,592
On the contrary, he had a strong personal
interest in printing more money,
298
00:22:27,680 --> 00:22:33,550
which his own bank controlled, to drive up
the price of his own company's shares.
299
00:22:34,680 --> 00:22:38,150
FortunateIy for Law,
both his bank and his company
300
00:22:38,240 --> 00:22:40,913
were now operating
out of the very same buiIding,
301
00:22:41,000 --> 00:22:44,310
the Mazarin PaIace,
which he himseIf happened to own.
302
00:22:44,400 --> 00:22:47,949
So aII he had to do in order to
drive up the company's share price
303
00:22:48,040 --> 00:22:52,113
was to take a waIk down the corridor from
the office where the shares were issued,
304
00:22:52,200 --> 00:22:54,395
to the office where the money was printed.
305
00:22:54,480 --> 00:22:59,110
You couId say that Law had become
the uItimate insider trader.
306
00:23:03,000 --> 00:23:07,073
At root, Law's system was what
we nowadays call a Ponzi scheme,
307
00:23:07,160 --> 00:23:11,233
after the legendary ltalian-American
conman, Charles Ponzi.
308
00:23:11,320 --> 00:23:16,235
To pay out the generous returns
it's promised to the first lot of suckers,
309
00:23:16,320 --> 00:23:20,677
a Ponzi scheme needs to take in
more money from the next lot of suckers.
310
00:23:20,760 --> 00:23:24,833
ln John Law's scheme,
the acquisitions of other companies
311
00:23:24,920 --> 00:23:27,150
and the generous dividends Law paid
312
00:23:27,240 --> 00:23:30,471
were financed not from company profits,
313
00:23:30,560 --> 00:23:32,755
but simply by selling new shares.
314
00:23:41,960 --> 00:23:47,080
Like aII Ponzi schemes, however,
the effect of Law's system
315
00:23:47,160 --> 00:23:50,072
was to generate an unsustainabIe bubbIe.
316
00:23:50,160 --> 00:23:52,151
Law had refIated the French economy
317
00:23:52,240 --> 00:23:55,471
with a combination of paper money
and pubIic confidence.
318
00:23:55,560 --> 00:23:58,916
Now, unfortunateIy,
his bubbIe was about to go pop.
319
00:24:13,120 --> 00:24:15,190
By the beginning of 1 720,
320
00:24:15,280 --> 00:24:19,671
France was in the grip of a mania -
the Mississippi Bubble.
321
00:24:22,240 --> 00:24:27,473
But the man responsible, the renegade
Scots murderer and gambler, John Law,
322
00:24:27,560 --> 00:24:30,916
who'd risen to become master
of the entire French economy,
323
00:24:31,000 --> 00:24:34,231
was about to discover
an inviolable law of finance...
324
00:24:36,200 --> 00:24:38,350
Trees don't grow to the sky.
325
00:24:45,560 --> 00:24:47,710
According to Law's PR campaign,
326
00:24:47,800 --> 00:24:52,191
the huge profits he was projecting would
come from the French colony of Louisiana,
327
00:24:52,280 --> 00:24:55,636
which he painted as
a veritable Garden of Eden,
328
00:24:55,720 --> 00:24:58,314
inhabited by friendly noble savages
329
00:24:58,400 --> 00:25:02,188
willing to exchange
a cornucopia of exotic goods.
330
00:25:02,280 --> 00:25:05,556
These would flow to France
through a new city
331
00:25:05,640 --> 00:25:08,757
at the mouth of the Mississippi,
New Orleans,
332
00:25:08,840 --> 00:25:13,994
named to flatter the always susceptible
French Regent, the Duke of Orleans.
333
00:25:15,120 --> 00:25:17,395
All the colony lacked was settlers.
334
00:25:20,520 --> 00:25:24,274
Grasping that Frenchmen were more
interested in stock market speculation
335
00:25:24,360 --> 00:25:26,590
than the hard graft of colonisation,
336
00:25:26,680 --> 00:25:30,798
Law launched a recruitment drive
in the Franco-German borderlands.
337
00:25:35,600 --> 00:25:40,720
Several thousand bold Germans signed up
and set sail to the promised land.
338
00:25:45,120 --> 00:25:47,918
They ended up here.
339
00:25:50,760 --> 00:25:55,072
This was the unfortunate immigrants'
first gIimpse of Louisiana,
340
00:25:55,160 --> 00:25:57,151
an insect-infested swamp.
341
00:25:57,240 --> 00:26:01,028
Within a year, 80% of them
had died of starvation
342
00:26:01,120 --> 00:26:03,270
or tropicaI diseases Iike yeIIow fever.
343
00:26:03,360 --> 00:26:06,989
SadIy for Law,
the Mississippi Company's principaI asset,
344
00:26:07,080 --> 00:26:12,029
its monopoIy on trade with Louisiana,
Iooked Iike being more or Iess worthIess.
345
00:26:16,120 --> 00:26:19,396
As the inscription
on this Dutch cartoon put it,
346
00:26:19,480 --> 00:26:24,508
''This is the wondrous Mississippi land
made famous by her share dealings,
347
00:26:24,600 --> 00:26:30,630
''which through deceit and devious conduct
has squandered countless treasures.
348
00:26:30,720 --> 00:26:36,158
''However men regard the shares,
it is wind and smoke and nothing more. ''
349
00:26:39,200 --> 00:26:42,954
To Law, economic success
was all about confidence.
350
00:26:44,200 --> 00:26:47,078
But this was a confidence trick.
351
00:26:49,160 --> 00:26:50,878
THUNDER RUMBLES
352
00:26:53,360 --> 00:26:56,955
ln Paris, the first rumours
began to circulate
353
00:26:57,040 --> 00:26:59,634
that all was not well with Law's system.
354
00:26:59,720 --> 00:27:03,429
The share price of the Mississippi Company
began to slide.
355
00:27:08,880 --> 00:27:13,271
ln a desperate bid to avert meltdown,
Law called on the Duke of Orleans
356
00:27:13,360 --> 00:27:18,195
to cut the official share price
from 9,000 livres to 5,000.
357
00:27:20,120 --> 00:27:23,078
This was when the limits
of royal absolutism,
358
00:27:23,160 --> 00:27:27,153
the foundation of Law's system,
suddenly became apparent.
359
00:27:30,520 --> 00:27:33,512
Within weeks, the share price
was in freefall.
360
00:27:33,600 --> 00:27:37,354
Angry crowds gathered outside Law's bank.
361
00:27:37,440 --> 00:27:39,476
Stones were thrown, windows broken.
362
00:27:40,840 --> 00:27:45,277
By December, the shares had lost
more than 90% of their value.
363
00:27:54,760 --> 00:28:00,437
This French map from 1 730 gives an
absoIuteIy wonderfuI visuaI representation
364
00:28:00,520 --> 00:28:02,670
of the worId's first stock market bubbIe.
365
00:28:02,760 --> 00:28:04,751
Here at the top is the goddess Fortuna,
366
00:28:04,840 --> 00:28:08,355
pouring down goodies
from her horn of pIenty.
367
00:28:08,440 --> 00:28:11,159
Here are the happy investors
receiving their shares
368
00:28:11,240 --> 00:28:13,993
in the Mississippi Company
from fIying cherubs.
369
00:28:14,080 --> 00:28:17,436
But down beIow, there are some
other cherubs chopping up the shares
370
00:28:17,520 --> 00:28:19,158
beside a shattered printing press.
371
00:28:19,240 --> 00:28:21,879
And there are two more cherubs
bIowing bubbIes.
372
00:28:21,960 --> 00:28:25,396
To the right, there are four
very unhappy Iooking men,
373
00:28:25,480 --> 00:28:29,155
one of whom is preparing to commit suicide
by faIIing on his sword.
374
00:28:31,800 --> 00:28:35,679
As if pricked by a sword,
the Mississippi Bubble had now burst.
375
00:28:38,680 --> 00:28:44,516
lt was at this moment that Law, vilified
by the French people, fled the country.
376
00:28:46,000 --> 00:28:48,719
He never saw his wife and daughter again.
377
00:28:51,160 --> 00:28:53,390
He spent the rest of his life in Venice,
378
00:28:53,480 --> 00:28:57,996
dividing his time between writing
long, self-justifying letters
379
00:28:58,080 --> 00:28:59,832
and gambling.
380
00:28:59,920 --> 00:29:01,990
He died in 1 729.
381
00:29:10,840 --> 00:29:15,356
ln France, however,
his devastating legacy lived on.
382
00:29:15,440 --> 00:29:20,389
Law's bubbIe and bust fataIIy
set back France's financiaI deveIopment,
383
00:29:20,480 --> 00:29:25,395
putting Frenchmen off paper money and
stock markets for more than a generation.
384
00:29:25,480 --> 00:29:28,119
The French monarchy's fiscaI crisis
went unresoIved
385
00:29:28,200 --> 00:29:31,510
and for the rest of the reign of Louis XV
and Louis XVI,
386
00:29:31,600 --> 00:29:33,477
the crown Iived from hand to mouth.
387
00:29:36,360 --> 00:29:42,196
Eventually, France was driven
by royal bankruptcy to revolution.
388
00:29:50,280 --> 00:29:56,719
The Mississippi Bubble of 1 7 1 9 was
the first stock market bubble in history.
389
00:29:56,800 --> 00:29:58,995
But it's been by no means the largest.
390
00:29:59,080 --> 00:30:02,470
When we think of stock market bubbles,
we think of this.
391
00:30:07,400 --> 00:30:10,597
The nightmare
that haunts the world of finance,
392
00:30:10,680 --> 00:30:13,797
which has returned to haunt us
in the last few months,
393
00:30:13,880 --> 00:30:18,158
is that there could ever be a bust
to match the Great Wall Street Crash,
394
00:30:18,240 --> 00:30:23,075
which began on October 24th 1 929,
Black Thursday.
395
00:30:23,160 --> 00:30:28,473
Over the next three years, the US stock
market declined a staggering 86%,
396
00:30:28,560 --> 00:30:32,599
reaching its nadir in June 1 932.
397
00:30:39,760 --> 00:30:42,638
What was worse,
this asset price deflation
398
00:30:42,720 --> 00:30:45,951
was accompanied by the worst
depression in all history.
399
00:30:50,520 --> 00:30:54,399
ln the United States,
output collapsed by nearly a third.
400
00:30:54,480 --> 00:30:58,553
Unemployment reached a quarter
of the civilian labour force.
401
00:31:04,320 --> 00:31:07,312
Why did the 1 929 crash happen?
402
00:31:09,240 --> 00:31:12,516
Why, indeed,
does any crash happen?
403
00:31:12,600 --> 00:31:16,912
This remains one of the most hotly
debated questions in financial history.
404
00:31:22,960 --> 00:31:27,431
There are all kinds of technical
explanations for stock market crashes.
405
00:31:27,520 --> 00:31:31,229
But at root,
it's all about herd psychology.
406
00:31:35,200 --> 00:31:39,273
ln a bull market,
that's when share prices are rising,
407
00:31:39,360 --> 00:31:41,749
even the smartest investors can succumb
408
00:31:41,840 --> 00:31:44,673
to what the former chairman
of the American Federal Reserve,
409
00:31:44,760 --> 00:31:49,311
Alan Greenspan,
famously called ''irrational exuberance''.
410
00:31:49,400 --> 00:31:51,391
But when the herd changes direction,
411
00:31:51,480 --> 00:31:54,790
sometimes in reaction to nothing more
than a change in the wind,
412
00:31:54,880 --> 00:32:00,000
their mood can also change
from euphoria to gloom.
413
00:32:00,080 --> 00:32:02,719
The herd stampedes.
414
00:32:04,280 --> 00:32:06,236
One cow gets scared,
415
00:32:06,320 --> 00:32:10,074
and that fear just transIates
to the whoIe herd and they aII take off.
416
00:32:10,160 --> 00:32:12,549
And the rest of them
don't know why they're scared.
417
00:32:12,640 --> 00:32:15,632
They just feeI that fear and they run.
418
00:32:15,720 --> 00:32:20,589
Fear overwheIms aII rationaI thinking.
419
00:32:20,680 --> 00:32:22,238
UntiI it's over.
420
00:32:23,680 --> 00:32:30,233
ln market jargon, the buyers have turned
into sellers, the bulls into bears.
421
00:32:30,320 --> 00:32:33,278
Despite the zooIogicaI imagery,
422
00:32:33,360 --> 00:32:36,477
the point is that markets are mirrors
of the human psyche.
423
00:32:36,560 --> 00:32:39,199
Like homo sapiens,
they are prone to mood swings,
424
00:32:39,280 --> 00:32:40,952
from greed to fear.
425
00:32:41,040 --> 00:32:43,031
They can suffer from depression.
426
00:32:43,120 --> 00:32:46,271
And sometimes they can experience
compIete breakdowns.
427
00:32:46,360 --> 00:32:47,952
That happens rather more often
428
00:32:48,040 --> 00:32:51,077
than some financiaI theories
wouId Iead you to expect,
429
00:32:51,160 --> 00:32:54,835
but not so often that we're ever
quite ready for the next breakdown.
430
00:32:59,600 --> 00:33:02,034
lf movements in financial markets
431
00:33:02,120 --> 00:33:05,271
were statistically distributed
like human heights,
432
00:33:05,360 --> 00:33:07,555
there would hardly be any crashes.
433
00:33:07,640 --> 00:33:11,076
Most months would be clustered
around the average,
434
00:33:11,160 --> 00:33:15,631
with only a tiny number
witnessing extreme ups or downs.
435
00:33:15,720 --> 00:33:20,748
Let's face it, not many of us are below
four feet in height or above eight feet.
436
00:33:26,320 --> 00:33:28,595
This is the cIassic beII-shaped curve,
437
00:33:28,680 --> 00:33:31,797
where things are distributed
according to their frequency -
438
00:33:31,880 --> 00:33:35,236
the most commonIy occurring
cIustered here around the middIe
439
00:33:35,320 --> 00:33:39,279
and the reIativeIy rare dwarves
and giants out here at the extremes.
440
00:33:39,360 --> 00:33:40,952
That's why it's quite a steep curve,
441
00:33:41,040 --> 00:33:44,112
because most human heights
are quite cIose to the average.
442
00:33:44,200 --> 00:33:46,668
But if you do the same thing
for financiaI markets,
443
00:33:46,760 --> 00:33:48,716
for daiIy moves in the stock market,
444
00:33:48,800 --> 00:33:52,395
you end up with something
that Iooks more Iike this,
445
00:33:52,480 --> 00:33:54,630
with reIativeIy fewer smaII movements
446
00:33:54,720 --> 00:33:58,508
and reIativeIy more
big movements down or up.
447
00:33:58,600 --> 00:34:04,357
And these are what the statisticians mean
when they taIk about Iong or fat taiIs.
448
00:34:06,720 --> 00:34:10,030
lf stock market movements
were distributed like human heights,
449
00:34:10,120 --> 00:34:14,716
a drop of 1 0% would happen
only once every 500 years.
450
00:34:14,800 --> 00:34:19,510
And stock market crashes of 20%
in a year would be unheard of,
451
00:34:19,600 --> 00:34:21,875
rather like people just six inches tall.
452
00:34:21,960 --> 00:34:27,273
Whereas in fact, there have been
seven such crashes in the past century.
453
00:34:31,080 --> 00:34:36,234
As it turned out, those who feared
that the brief panic of October 1 987
454
00:34:36,320 --> 00:34:40,029
would turn into the next great crash
were proved wrong.
455
00:34:40,120 --> 00:34:44,352
The market had one
really bad month, then rallied.
456
00:34:44,440 --> 00:34:49,434
But that bubble provided a golden
opportunity for corporate crookery.
457
00:34:51,080 --> 00:34:54,311
What John Law's Mississippi Company
had been to the bubbIe
458
00:34:54,400 --> 00:34:56,277
that Iaunched the 18th century,
459
00:34:56,360 --> 00:34:59,955
so another company wouId be
to the bubbIe that ended the 20th.
460
00:35:00,040 --> 00:35:02,600
It was a company
that promised its investors
461
00:35:02,680 --> 00:35:04,716
weaIth beyond the dreams of avarice.
462
00:35:04,800 --> 00:35:09,032
It was a company that cIaimed to have
reinvented the entire financiaI system.
463
00:35:09,120 --> 00:35:12,590
And it was a company that used
its impeccabIe poIiticaI connections
464
00:35:12,680 --> 00:35:15,433
to ride aII the way to the top
of the buII market.
465
00:35:15,520 --> 00:35:21,038
Named by Fortune Magazine
as ''America's Most lnnovative Company''
466
00:35:21,120 --> 00:35:24,476
for six consecutive years,
that company was...
467
00:35:24,560 --> 00:35:26,198
Enron.
468
00:35:28,200 --> 00:35:29,872
Seven years after its collapse,
469
00:35:29,960 --> 00:35:34,317
most of us have consigned Enron
to the dustbin of financial history.
470
00:35:34,400 --> 00:35:38,837
Yet it pioneered many
of the dubious business practices
471
00:35:38,920 --> 00:35:41,434
that continue to plague us today.
472
00:35:49,480 --> 00:35:52,074
ln the three years up to August 2000,
473
00:35:52,160 --> 00:35:55,391
shares of the Houston energy company
had gone through the roof.
474
00:35:55,480 --> 00:35:59,189
Once a small-time
gas company in Nebraska,
475
00:35:59,280 --> 00:36:03,114
Enron was now the fifth largest company
in the United States,
476
00:36:03,200 --> 00:36:07,671
with stated revenues
of 1 1 1 billion dollars.
477
00:36:07,760 --> 00:36:11,036
Enron was the darling of Wall Street.
478
00:36:14,840 --> 00:36:20,551
Yet a little historical knowledge might
have made Enron's investors think twice.
479
00:36:22,960 --> 00:36:27,431
lndeed, the story of Enron was like
a re-run of the Mississippi Bubble
480
00:36:27,520 --> 00:36:29,590
280 years before.
481
00:36:32,240 --> 00:36:37,712
John Law's plan had been to revolutionise
French government finance.
482
00:36:37,800 --> 00:36:39,950
Ken Lay, the chairman of Enron,
483
00:36:40,040 --> 00:36:43,749
planned to revolutionise
the global energy business.
484
00:36:49,800 --> 00:36:54,669
For years, the industry had been
dominated by huge utility companies,
485
00:36:54,760 --> 00:36:58,992
which both produced the energy, pumped
the gas and generated the electricity,
486
00:36:59,080 --> 00:37:01,196
and sold it on to consumers.
487
00:37:02,760 --> 00:37:06,912
Lay's big idea was to create
a kind of energy bank,
488
00:37:07,000 --> 00:37:11,915
which would act as the intermediary
between suppliers and consumers.
489
00:37:12,000 --> 00:37:17,199
His dream was to make Enron
the greatest energy company in the world.
490
00:37:17,280 --> 00:37:19,953
Caught up in the heady spirit of the times
491
00:37:20,040 --> 00:37:23,271
was senior Enron executive,
Sherron Watkins.
492
00:37:23,360 --> 00:37:25,555
It was very eIectric.
493
00:37:25,640 --> 00:37:28,518
You feIt Iike you couId...
If you came up with a good idea,
494
00:37:28,600 --> 00:37:32,195
Enron wouId give you the money and
you couId go for it at a very young age.
495
00:37:32,280 --> 00:37:35,909
Like John Law,
Ken Lay had friends in high places.
496
00:37:36,000 --> 00:37:41,393
He contributed generously to
George HWBush's presidential campaign.
497
00:37:41,480 --> 00:37:44,916
As President,
Bush duly pushed through legislation
498
00:37:45,000 --> 00:37:47,309
that deregulated the energy industry.
499
00:37:48,600 --> 00:37:51,592
Riding a global wave
of energy privatisation,
500
00:37:51,680 --> 00:37:55,559
Enron snapped up assets
all over the world.
501
00:37:55,640 --> 00:37:59,952
ln Latin America alone, the company
had interests in Colombia, Ecuador,
502
00:38:00,040 --> 00:38:05,672
Peru and Bolivia, where they laid a huge
pipeline across the continent to Brazil.
503
00:38:05,760 --> 00:38:11,357
And thanks to the intervention of
Ken Lay's personaI friend, George W Bush,
504
00:38:11,440 --> 00:38:13,829
Enron was abIe to acquire
a controIIing stake
505
00:38:13,920 --> 00:38:18,072
in the Iargest naturaI gas
pipeIine network in the worId,
506
00:38:18,160 --> 00:38:20,720
here in Argentina.
507
00:38:24,400 --> 00:38:26,914
Above all, however, Enron traded.
508
00:38:27,000 --> 00:38:31,039
Not only in energy,
but in virtually all the ancient elements
509
00:38:31,120 --> 00:38:33,270
of earth, water, fire and air.
510
00:38:33,360 --> 00:38:37,512
lt even traded in internet bandwidth.
511
00:38:38,600 --> 00:38:43,549
Enron led a Wall Street surge unnervingly
reminiscent of the Mississippi Bubble.
512
00:38:44,920 --> 00:38:49,755
Despite his half-hearted warnings
against ''irrational exuberance'',
513
00:38:49,840 --> 00:38:52,195
this bull market was propelled upward
514
00:38:52,280 --> 00:38:56,273
by the chairman of the US Federal Reserve,
Alan Greenspan.
515
00:38:58,840 --> 00:39:02,719
As in John Law's time,
a stock market bubble could only happen
516
00:39:02,800 --> 00:39:05,030
if money was abundant.
517
00:39:06,920 --> 00:39:12,472
And by raising interest rates only once
between February 1 995 and June 1 990,
518
00:39:12,560 --> 00:39:15,791
Greenspan made sure that it was.
519
00:39:15,880 --> 00:39:18,314
The rewards for investors were immense,
520
00:39:18,400 --> 00:39:21,995
and aIso for the managers here
at the company's Houston headquarters,
521
00:39:22,080 --> 00:39:24,992
who were generousIy incentivised
with share options.
522
00:39:25,080 --> 00:39:28,470
In the space of just three years
after 1997,
523
00:39:28,560 --> 00:39:32,792
the Enron stock price rose
by a factor of very nearIy five,
524
00:39:32,880 --> 00:39:36,156
from beIow 20 doIIars a share
to above 90.
525
00:39:36,240 --> 00:39:39,118
It was the Mississippi Company
aII over again.
526
00:39:45,760 --> 00:39:52,199
Even a city used to extravagant
oil-fired living had seen nothing like it.
527
00:39:53,600 --> 00:39:57,718
This is where Ken Lay
and his Enron executives used to live,
528
00:39:57,800 --> 00:40:01,509
in River Oaks, Houston's
most exclusive neighbourhood.
529
00:40:01,600 --> 00:40:07,357
ln the final year of its existence,
Enron paid its top 1 40 executives
530
00:40:07,440 --> 00:40:10,079
an average of 5.3 million dollars each.
531
00:40:10,160 --> 00:40:13,391
Luxury car sales went through the roof.
532
00:40:16,160 --> 00:40:20,676
(Sherron Watkins) You got muItipIes
of your annuaI base pay.
533
00:40:20,760 --> 00:40:23,069
You were reaIIy Iess thought of
if you got a percentage,
534
00:40:23,160 --> 00:40:25,310
even if it was 75%
of your annuaI base pay.
535
00:40:25,400 --> 00:40:27,789
Oh, you were getting a percentage.
You wanted muItipIes.
536
00:40:27,880 --> 00:40:30,235
You wanted two times
your annuaI base pay,
537
00:40:30,320 --> 00:40:34,029
three times, four times
your annuaI base pay, as a bonus.
538
00:40:36,000 --> 00:40:38,560
And Lay, the pillar of society,
539
00:40:38,640 --> 00:40:42,030
espoused the highest moral
standards for his company.
540
00:40:42,120 --> 00:40:47,433
(Ken Lay) Enron is a company that deaIs
with everyone with absoIute integrity.
541
00:40:47,520 --> 00:40:50,557
We pIay by aII of the ruIes,
we stand by our word,
542
00:40:50,640 --> 00:40:52,870
we mean what we say,
we say what we mean.
543
00:40:54,240 --> 00:40:58,028
The only problem was that,
like John Law's system,
544
00:40:58,120 --> 00:41:02,033
the Enron system was an elaborate fraud.
545
00:41:02,120 --> 00:41:04,350
PHONE RINGS
546
00:41:13,160 --> 00:41:14,752
ln this tape, an Enron trader
547
00:41:14,840 --> 00:41:17,638
is discussing with
the El Paso Electric Company
548
00:41:17,720 --> 00:41:20,951
how to hold California's
consumers to ransom
549
00:41:21,040 --> 00:41:25,113
by closing power stations
to restrict the supply of electricity.
550
00:41:34,520 --> 00:41:36,556
OK.
551
00:41:40,960 --> 00:41:44,669
The results were not only
the higher prices Enron wanted,
552
00:41:44,760 --> 00:41:49,038
but also, despite there being
plenty of power available,
553
00:41:49,120 --> 00:41:50,917
repeated blackouts for consumers.
554
00:41:57,120 --> 00:42:00,157
Enron's money was stolen
in more ways than one.
555
00:42:00,240 --> 00:42:03,471
The company's stated assets
were vastly inflated.
556
00:42:03,560 --> 00:42:09,954
But its key financial innovation was to
remove its debts from the balance sheet
557
00:42:10,040 --> 00:42:14,955
and hide them in so-called
''special purpose entities'',
558
00:42:15,040 --> 00:42:18,077
dubious names like Chewco and Raptor.
559
00:42:18,160 --> 00:42:22,995
Each quarter, the company's executives
had to use more smoke and more mirrors
560
00:42:23,080 --> 00:42:26,072
to make actual losses
look like bumper profits.
561
00:42:27,400 --> 00:42:28,992
lt couldn't last.
562
00:42:29,080 --> 00:42:32,709
When you cook the books
and then you try to hide it,
563
00:42:32,800 --> 00:42:33,755
you're toast.
564
00:42:35,040 --> 00:42:37,190
When they sensed
the game would soon be up,
565
00:42:37,280 --> 00:42:39,475
Lay and his cronies started to unload
566
00:42:39,560 --> 00:42:42,074
hundreds of millions
of dollars worth of shares,
567
00:42:42,160 --> 00:42:44,515
while at the same time
reassuring the public
568
00:42:44,600 --> 00:42:47,194
that the share price
would continue to soar.
569
00:42:49,120 --> 00:42:50,917
Like John Law's desperate attempts
570
00:42:51,000 --> 00:42:53,992
to stem the freefall
of Mississippi Company shares,
571
00:42:54,080 --> 00:42:57,675
all Ken Lay's reassurances were in vain.
572
00:42:59,880 --> 00:43:06,069
On November 1 5th 2001, Alan Greenspan,
head of the US Federal Reserve,
573
00:43:06,160 --> 00:43:10,676
received the Enron Prize
for Distinguished Public Service,
574
00:43:10,760 --> 00:43:12,512
adding his name to a roll of honour
575
00:43:12,600 --> 00:43:16,275
that included Mikhail Gorbachev
and Nelson Mandela.
576
00:43:16,360 --> 00:43:21,195
Greenspan deserved it, because without
his monetary policies in the late '90s,
577
00:43:21,280 --> 00:43:25,114
the Enron bubble, and the dotcom bubble
that coincided with it,
578
00:43:25,200 --> 00:43:27,475
would surely have been impossible.
579
00:43:30,480 --> 00:43:35,600
Just two weeks after the award ceremony,
Enron filed for bankruptcy.
580
00:43:35,680 --> 00:43:38,717
The company owed billions.
581
00:43:38,800 --> 00:43:40,791
But just how many billions?
582
00:43:42,600 --> 00:43:45,398
When Enron decIared bankruptcy,
December 2001 ,
583
00:43:45,480 --> 00:43:49,393
they met with their creditors to say,
584
00:43:49,480 --> 00:43:52,756
''Erm, guys, I know on our baIance sheet,
585
00:43:52,840 --> 00:43:56,389
''we have reported 13 biIIion doIIars
of Iong-term debt.
586
00:43:56,480 --> 00:44:00,951
''Our true Iong-term debt picture
is 38 biIIion doIIars.
587
00:44:01,040 --> 00:44:05,989
''There's 25 biIIion doIIars
in off-baIance-sheet debt''.
588
00:44:06,080 --> 00:44:07,957
(NiaII Ferguson) Did those numbers
come as a shock to you?
589
00:44:08,040 --> 00:44:09,917
You knew there were probIems,
but not on that scaIe.
590
00:44:10,000 --> 00:44:13,231
Yes, I mean, I think
we were aII fIabbergasted.
591
00:44:16,000 --> 00:44:22,030
The day before 4,500 employees at Enron's
HQ were given their marching orders,
592
00:44:22,120 --> 00:44:26,238
a final round of bonus cheques
were issued to grateful executives.
593
00:44:28,760 --> 00:44:35,472
ln May 2006, Ken Lay was convicted on all
six counts of securities and wire fraud.
594
00:44:35,560 --> 00:44:40,111
His sidekick, Jeffrey Skilling,
was sentenced to 24 years in prison.
595
00:44:42,920 --> 00:44:47,869
Lay died before sentencing,
while on holiday in Aspen, Colorado.
596
00:44:49,320 --> 00:44:53,279
Yet the fraudulent practices
that propelled Enron's rise and fall
597
00:44:53,360 --> 00:44:55,510
didn't die with Ken Lay.
598
00:44:56,640 --> 00:45:01,475
On the contrary, the habit
of hiding debt off-balance-sheet
599
00:45:01,560 --> 00:45:06,395
that Enron pioneered subsequently spread
throughout the Western financial system.
600
00:45:07,480 --> 00:45:09,994
The unravelling of this dodgy accounting
601
00:45:10,080 --> 00:45:13,277
has been a key component
of the current crisis.
602
00:45:13,360 --> 00:45:17,831
In many respects, I think
the Enron probIem was in a Petri dish
603
00:45:17,920 --> 00:45:21,469
and the germ has spread
throughout the financiaI markets.
604
00:45:21,560 --> 00:45:25,155
Some of which comes from
Enron traders and finance foIks
605
00:45:25,240 --> 00:45:28,596
that are gainfuIIy empIoyed at banks
and energy trading houses.
606
00:45:28,680 --> 00:45:32,229
So that rot is everywhere
in the financiaI markets.
607
00:45:39,120 --> 00:45:45,036
The joint stock Iimited IiabiIity company
truIy is a miracuIous institution.
608
00:45:45,120 --> 00:45:47,156
And yet throughout financiaI history,
609
00:45:47,240 --> 00:45:50,073
there have aIways been
a few crooked companies,
610
00:45:50,160 --> 00:45:53,152
just as there have occasionaIIy
been irrationaI markets.
611
00:45:53,240 --> 00:45:55,196
Indeed, the two go hand in hand,
612
00:45:55,280 --> 00:45:59,512
because it's preciseIy when the buIIs
are stampeding most enthusiasticaIIy
613
00:45:59,600 --> 00:46:04,071
that peopIe are most IikeIy
to get taken for the proverbiaI ride.
614
00:46:05,160 --> 00:46:08,596
THUNDER RUMBLES
615
00:46:08,680 --> 00:46:10,238
As we've seen in the past year,
616
00:46:10,320 --> 00:46:14,552
the path of financial markets can
never be as smooth as we would like.
617
00:46:14,640 --> 00:46:17,359
Since the current credit crunch began,
618
00:46:17,440 --> 00:46:22,150
some stock markets around the world
have fallen by as much as 50%.
619
00:46:26,080 --> 00:46:28,548
So long as human expectations
of the future veer
620
00:46:28,640 --> 00:46:32,918
from the over-optimistic to
the over-pessimistic, from greed to fear,
621
00:46:33,000 --> 00:46:35,992
stock prices will tend to trace a line
622
00:46:36,080 --> 00:46:39,993
not unlike the jagged
and irregular peaks of the Andes.
623
00:46:41,640 --> 00:46:43,596
As an investor, you just have to hope
624
00:46:43,680 --> 00:46:47,036
that when you have to come down
from the summit of euphoria,
625
00:46:47,120 --> 00:46:51,830
it'll be on a nice, smooth ski-slope,
and not over a sheer cliff.
626
00:46:53,320 --> 00:46:57,313
But is there nothing
we can do to protect ourselves
627
00:46:57,400 --> 00:46:59,834
from real and metaphorical falls?
628
00:47:00,800 --> 00:47:04,315
As we'll see in the next episode
of The Ascent Of Money,
629
00:47:04,400 --> 00:47:08,632
finance is as much about risk
as it is about return.
630
00:47:08,720 --> 00:47:10,438
And the big question is,
631
00:47:10,520 --> 00:47:11,919
are you insured?
632
00:47:12,000 --> 00:47:14,798
Or are you hedged?
58381
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