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At the edge of the world, in a country
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with more sheep than people, one of the
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most powerful men in Silicon Valley
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built an escape hatch. Not a vacation
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home, not a tax shelter, a contingency
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plan.
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In 2011, a billionaire quietly secured
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citizenship in New Zealand after
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spending just days in the country. A
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legal backdoor, a geopolitical lifeboat
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deep in the rugged terrain of New
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Zealand's South Island, Peter Teal owns
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a vast private estate, remote, secluded,
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and far from the centers of power.
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While most billionaires buy yachts or
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private islands feel secured something
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more strategic, New Zealand citizenship
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and a vast estate in one of the most
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remote democracies on Earth. The
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purchase price for this geopolitical
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insurance policy.
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In 2011, Theel obtained New Zealand
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citizenship after spending just 12 days
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in the country over the previous 2
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years.
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a process that normally requires years
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of residency.
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The investment that secured this
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exceptional pathway, approximately $7
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million in local assets and business
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investments.
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The centerpiece, a 477 acre estate near
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Lake Wanaka, purchased for 13.5 million
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New Zealand, about $10 million.
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When New Zealand media exposed the deal
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in 2017, it sparked a national scandal.
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>> Hi Benedict, nice to talk to you again.
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So when we last spoke, you told us that
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Peter Teal was granted citizenship after
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having only visited New Zealand four
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times for an unknown number of days
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because the documents had that
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information redacted. Right.
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>> Politicians called it citizenship for
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sale. Opposition leaders demanded
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investigations,
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but Theel had already achieved his
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objective, a legal escape hatch in the
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world's most politically stable
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democracy,
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a geopolitical insurance policy that
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money can buy.
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Why would a man who helped build the
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digital future prepare for the collapse
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of the physical one? What does he see
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that others don't? Yes, it's the uh 1
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Thessalonians 5:3, the uh the the slogan
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of the Antichrist is peace and safety.
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And so, which is nothing wrong with
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peace and safety, but uh you have to
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sort of imagine that it resonates very
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differently in a world where the stakes
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are so absolute, where the stakes are so
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extreme, where the you know the
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alternative to peace and safety is, you
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know, Armageddon and the destruction of
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all things.
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He is one of the most polarizing figures
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in Silicon Valley. To some, a visionary
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genius who saw the future early. To
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others, the shadow financier of
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movements and candidates who challenged
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liberal democratic norms.
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This is not fear. This is strategy.
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For decades, Peter Theel has made the
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same bet over and over again. Bet
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against consensus. bet against the
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crowd, bet against the system itself.
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To understand why he built a fortress at
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the end of the earth, we have to go back
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to a childhood of constant displacement.
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To a chessboard where consensus meant
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nothing, to a company that tried to
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replace money and another that learned
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to see everything.
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But the estate is more than a luxury
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retreat. It is a fortress designed for
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civilizational uncertainty.
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Off-grid power systems, advanced
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security infrastructure, multiple
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evacuation routes through the mountains.
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Not built for comfort, built for
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continuity.
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While the world debates progress, Peter
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Theel is preparing for a different
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possibility.
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Not how to build the future, how to
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survive it.
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The architect of dissident
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total estimated value of the contingency
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infrastructure 20 to $30 million.
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Not for lifestyle, not for prestige, but
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for the day the system he helped build
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no longer holds.
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He didn't build this because he panics
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easily. He built it because he has
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always believed that the crowd is wrong
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and the future belongs to those willing
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to stand apart from it. Every fortress
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begins as an idea and Peter Theel has
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been building intellectual fortresses
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since he was a child.
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Before he was a billionaire, before he
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funded political outsiders, before he
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built machines that could see
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everything, he was a boy who never
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stayed in one place long enough to
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believe the world made sense.
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So, he searched for a world where the
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rules didn't change. He found it on a
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chessboard.
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To understand Peter Theel, you must
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understand what it means to be a
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permanent outsider.
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Born in Frankfurt, West Germany, Peter
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Theel spent part of his early childhood
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in southwest Africa, now Namibia, before
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growing up mainly in the United States
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between Ohio and California.
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Before he was a teenager, he had already
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experienced life on multiple continents,
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never staying long enough to feel fully
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at home.
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He didn't have a hometown. He didn't
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have a tribe. He only had his own mind.
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And in that isolation, he found a
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language that didn't require a passport.
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Chess.
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For a child who changed continents
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before he could even make friends, the
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outside world was unpredictable noise.
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But the board, the board was the only
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place where the rules didn't change
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depending on the country.
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His
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father, an engineer trained in a culture
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of precision and systems thinking,
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passed on a belief that reality could be
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understood and optimized.
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While other children sought to fit in,
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Peter sought the edge. He learned that
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the consensus of the crowd is usually a
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distraction.
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If everyone is running toward the ball,
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you run toward where the ball is going
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to be.
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Chess is the ultimate antidote to
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consensus.
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In a crowd, you can hide behind a
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popular opinion. In chess, you are
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either right or you are dead. There is
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no middle ground. There is no social
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construction of the board.
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He became a serious tournament chess
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player drawn to a world where rules were
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fixed, outcomes were earned, and
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consensus meant nothing.
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Mid1 1980s Stanford University.
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To the world this was the peak of
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American meritocracy.
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To Theel it was a factory of conformity.
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While his classmates were debating how
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to change the world through activism,
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Theel was wondering why they all sounded
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exactly the same. He saw the
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multiculturalism movement not as
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progress but as a new form of
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fundamentalism.
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Stanford in the late 1980s was ground
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zero for America's culture wars, battles
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over multiculturalism, speech, and the
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purpose of higher education.
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Field believed the university was
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drifting toward ideological conformity,
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that certain views were becoming
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socially, if not formally, off limits.
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Here is investment methodology was born.
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Identify what the crowd considers sacred
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and question it.
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If everyone says identity diversity is
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the most important thing, you argue that
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intellectual diversity is the only thing
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that matters.
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He wasn't looking for friends. He was
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looking to recruit others who like him
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did not fear being hated.
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He founded the Stanford Review. The
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paper quickly became one of the most
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controversial publications on campus,
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attacking what field the saw as
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intellectual monoculture and political
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group think. He saw that the smartest
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people in the country were all competing
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for the same narrow prizes, thinking the
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same narrow thoughts.
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He did what every top student does. He
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followed the track. After Stanford law,
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he secured a prestigious federal
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appalate clerkship, the kind of
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credential that opens every elite door
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in America.
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After his clerkship, he joined Sullivan
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and Cromwell in New York, one of the
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most elite law firms in the world. On
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paper, he had reached the summit. Wall
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Street was his great negative epiphany.
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But from his perspective, the brightest
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graduates in America were locked in
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brutal competition for careers they
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didn't even seem to want.
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It looked like Renee Gerard's theory
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made flesh, a system where everyone
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desired the same prize simply because
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everyone else did. Wall Street looked at
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Theo like a laboratory of mimemetic
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rivalry. He realized that if he won that
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race, his prize would be becoming the
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man in the office next door. A copy of a
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copy. The day he lost the opportunity to
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clerk for the US Supreme Court wasn't a
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defeat. It was his liberation.
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He lasted less than a year. But Theo's
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first venture after leaving law was a
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humbling lesson in failure. A lesson
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that would shape everything that came
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after.
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In 1996, he launched Theel Capital
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Management,
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a hedge fund focused on currency trading
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and macroeconomic derivatives.
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The strategy was to make big directional
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bets on interest rates, inflation
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expectations, and foreign exchange
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movements. Initial capital raised $1
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million mostly from Stanford connections
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who believed in the chess prodigy turned
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lawyer turned financia.
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The result was spectacular failure.
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Within the first year, the fund had lost
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significant capital. Industry estimates
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suggest losses between 30 and 40% of the
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initial investment pool. Investors fled.
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Some demanded their remaining money back
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immediately.
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The reputation among finance
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professionals, the people he had walked
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away from at Sullivan and Cromwell, took
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a serious hit.
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He was no longer the Stanford genius. He
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was just another failed trader.
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But this failure taught him the most
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important lesson of his career.
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Competition is for losers.
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Do not compete in crowded markets where
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everyone is making the same trades with
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the same information and the same tools.
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Wall Street was full of extremely smart
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people doing the same macro trades,
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reading the same economic reports,
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betting on the same currency movements.
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It was a zero someum game played by
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thousands of nearly identical players.
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He needed to find a space where the
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rules were still being written, where
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being first mattered more than being
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best, where a monopoly position was
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still available.
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He needed technology.
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And from the ashes of the capital
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management, a new philosophy was born.
281
00:14:05,279 --> 00:14:11,120
If you want to create lasting value, you
282
00:14:07,839 --> 00:14:14,000
have to build a monopoly. This became
283
00:14:11,120 --> 00:14:17,720
his investing mantra and it would make
284
00:14:14,000 --> 00:14:17,720
him billions.
285
00:14:19,279 --> 00:14:24,160
Theo walked away from the firm and went
286
00:14:21,360 --> 00:14:27,040
back to California not to start a tech
287
00:14:24,160 --> 00:14:30,800
empire but to try trading then to launch
288
00:14:27,040 --> 00:14:33,120
a hedge fund. It failed. The system he
289
00:14:30,800 --> 00:14:36,959
rejected did not welcome him back as a
290
00:14:33,120 --> 00:14:38,959
prodigy. It treated him like a nobody.
291
00:14:36,959 --> 00:14:42,800
That failure would become the last
292
00:14:38,959 --> 00:14:45,199
lesson before his real beginning. But he
293
00:14:42,800 --> 00:14:47,839
learned something. If you play the
294
00:14:45,199 --> 00:14:49,920
system game as everyone else, you've
295
00:14:47,839 --> 00:14:51,839
already lost.
296
00:14:49,920 --> 00:14:57,560
The chess master was done with the
297
00:14:51,839 --> 00:14:57,560
board. He was ready to build his own.
298
00:15:02,480 --> 00:15:06,399
So this is an ATM. What we're going to
299
00:15:04,399 --> 00:15:08,240
do is transform the traditional banking
300
00:15:06,399 --> 00:15:11,760
industry.
301
00:15:08,240 --> 00:15:13,360
>> I do not fit the picture of a banker.
302
00:15:11,760 --> 00:15:15,440
>> X.com. This is Julie.
303
00:15:13,360 --> 00:15:18,000
>> Raising $50 million is a matter of
304
00:15:15,440 --> 00:15:20,240
making a series of phone calls and the
305
00:15:18,000 --> 00:15:22,160
money is there.
306
00:15:20,240 --> 00:15:24,720
>> I've sunk the great majority of of my
307
00:15:22,160 --> 00:15:26,880
net worth into X.com, which is the new
308
00:15:24,720 --> 00:15:31,360
banking and mutual funds company on the
309
00:15:26,880 --> 00:15:34,160
internet that I started. December 1998,
310
00:15:31,360 --> 00:15:37,519
Peter Theel co-founds a company called
311
00:15:34,160 --> 00:15:40,639
Conffinity with Max Levchin, a brilliant
312
00:15:37,519 --> 00:15:44,240
Ukrainianborn programmer, and Luke Nosk,
313
00:15:40,639 --> 00:15:47,360
a fellow Stanford review illuminous.
314
00:15:44,240 --> 00:15:49,360
Initial funding, $300,000 scraped
315
00:15:47,360 --> 00:15:51,519
together from friends, family, and
316
00:15:49,360 --> 00:15:54,720
fellow libertarian true believers from
317
00:15:51,519 --> 00:15:57,920
the Stamford days. The original product
318
00:15:54,720 --> 00:16:01,120
idea, digital wallets on Palm Pilot
319
00:15:57,920 --> 00:16:03,440
handheld devices. The vision was that
320
00:16:01,120 --> 00:16:07,519
people would beam money to each other
321
00:16:03,440 --> 00:16:10,240
using infrared ports on the Palm Pilots
322
00:16:07,519 --> 00:16:11,759
in coffee shops, at restaurants,
323
00:16:10,240 --> 00:16:16,199
persontoperson,
324
00:16:11,759 --> 00:16:16,199
bypassing banks entirely.
325
00:16:16,399 --> 00:16:24,560
Total users after 6 months of operation,
326
00:16:20,079 --> 00:16:26,800
12 people. literally 12.
327
00:16:24,560 --> 00:16:29,519
Most of them were employees and their
328
00:16:26,800 --> 00:16:33,120
friends testing the system. It was a
329
00:16:29,519 --> 00:16:36,000
complete and utter flop. The technology
330
00:16:33,120 --> 00:16:40,959
worked, but nobody cared. Nobody wanted
331
00:16:36,000 --> 00:16:44,320
it. March 2000, Conffinity pivots hard
332
00:16:40,959 --> 00:16:46,720
and launches a new feature, email-based
333
00:16:44,320 --> 00:16:49,759
money transfers.
334
00:16:46,720 --> 00:16:52,160
You send money to any email address. The
335
00:16:49,759 --> 00:16:54,639
recipient gets a notification, creates
336
00:16:52,160 --> 00:16:57,680
an account, and the money is there.
337
00:16:54,639 --> 00:17:01,199
Simple, instant, revolutionary. The name
338
00:16:57,680 --> 00:17:04,000
of this new service, PayPal.
339
00:17:01,199 --> 00:17:06,640
Within weeks, user growth exploded at a
340
00:17:04,000 --> 00:17:08,240
rate nobody had ever seen in financial
341
00:17:06,640 --> 00:17:12,799
services.
342
00:17:08,240 --> 00:17:18,319
Month one, 10,000 users. Month three,
343
00:17:12,799 --> 00:17:23,280
100,000 users. Month 6, 1 million users.
344
00:17:18,319 --> 00:17:25,679
Month 12, 5 million users.
345
00:17:23,280 --> 00:17:28,000
This was the fastest user adoption rate
346
00:17:25,679 --> 00:17:30,880
in the entire history of financial
347
00:17:28,000 --> 00:17:33,360
services. Faster than credit cards,
348
00:17:30,880 --> 00:17:35,360
faster than checking accounts, faster
349
00:17:33,360 --> 00:17:37,919
than anything.
350
00:17:35,360 --> 00:17:40,960
But here is what most people do not know
351
00:17:37,919 --> 00:17:44,320
about PayPal's growth. Here is the
352
00:17:40,960 --> 00:17:47,520
secret that the mythology leaves out.
353
00:17:44,320 --> 00:17:51,840
PayPal's explosive user acquisition was
354
00:17:47,520 --> 00:17:56,720
not organic. It was not word of mouth.
355
00:17:51,840 --> 00:17:59,039
It was not viral in the natural sense.
356
00:17:56,720 --> 00:18:02,960
They literally bought their users with
357
00:17:59,039 --> 00:18:05,760
cash. The strategy was elegantly simple
358
00:18:02,960 --> 00:18:08,880
and brutally expensive.
359
00:18:05,760 --> 00:18:12,000
Sign up for a PayPal account, get $10
360
00:18:08,880 --> 00:18:15,600
deposited instantly. Refer a friend who
361
00:18:12,000 --> 00:18:19,760
signs up gets another $10. Your friend
362
00:18:15,600 --> 00:18:23,120
also gets $10. Cost per acquisition 20
363
00:18:19,760 --> 00:18:26,720
to $40 per user depending on how many
364
00:18:23,120 --> 00:18:30,000
referrals each user generated.
365
00:18:26,720 --> 00:18:32,880
Monthly cash burn rate of peak growth 10
366
00:18:30,000 --> 00:18:36,160
to 12 million
367
00:18:32,880 --> 00:18:39,840
just vanishing into a user acquisition.
368
00:18:36,160 --> 00:18:43,200
By late 2000, PayPal was spending 60 to
369
00:18:39,840 --> 00:18:45,760
70 million annually just to buy users
370
00:18:43,200 --> 00:18:47,840
with cash incentives.
371
00:18:45,760 --> 00:18:50,559
They were hemorrhaging money at a
372
00:18:47,840 --> 00:18:53,039
terrifying rate. Investors were
373
00:18:50,559 --> 00:18:55,840
panicking. Board members were demanding
374
00:18:53,039 --> 00:18:58,240
answers.
375
00:18:55,840 --> 00:19:01,840
How long can you sustain spending $10
376
00:18:58,240 --> 00:19:04,960
million a month buying users?
377
00:19:01,840 --> 00:19:07,919
But Theo had done the mathematics. He
378
00:19:04,960 --> 00:19:10,880
had run the numbers obsessively.
379
00:19:07,919 --> 00:19:14,640
Each acquired user was worth $100 to
380
00:19:10,880 --> 00:19:17,520
$200 in lifetime transaction fee revenue
381
00:19:14,640 --> 00:19:22,000
through the PayPal network. They were
382
00:19:17,520 --> 00:19:25,200
buying $100 bills for $20 bills. It was
383
00:19:22,000 --> 00:19:28,480
either genius or insanity, depending on
384
00:19:25,200 --> 00:19:30,960
whether the math actually worked. The
385
00:19:28,480 --> 00:19:33,280
believed it would work. He bet
386
00:19:30,960 --> 00:19:36,400
everything on it. But there was a
387
00:19:33,280 --> 00:19:39,760
problem. a major problem. Another
388
00:19:36,400 --> 00:19:43,360
company was doing the exact same thing.
389
00:19:39,760 --> 00:19:46,799
X.com, a finance company founded by Elon
390
00:19:43,360 --> 00:19:48,799
Musk with money from his Zip 2 exit and
391
00:19:46,799 --> 00:19:53,120
a vision for online banking that was
392
00:19:48,799 --> 00:19:56,799
nearly identical to PayPal's.
393
00:19:53,120 --> 00:19:59,679
Two companies, same idea, same market,
394
00:19:56,799 --> 00:20:03,200
both burning massive amounts of cash at
395
00:19:59,679 --> 00:20:05,840
completely unsustainable rates. Total
396
00:20:03,200 --> 00:20:08,960
funding raised between both companies
397
00:20:05,840 --> 00:20:12,240
over $100 million.
398
00:20:08,960 --> 00:20:13,760
Combined monthly cash burn rate over $20
399
00:20:12,240 --> 00:20:16,080
million
400
00:20:13,760 --> 00:20:21,120
time until both companies simultaneously
401
00:20:16,080 --> 00:20:24,000
ran out of money less than 6 months.
402
00:20:21,120 --> 00:20:27,520
The merger was inevitable.
403
00:20:24,000 --> 00:20:30,559
X.com and Confinity merged into a single
404
00:20:27,520 --> 00:20:32,880
entity. The combined company kept the
405
00:20:30,559 --> 00:20:36,640
PayPal name because users had already
406
00:20:32,880 --> 00:20:39,200
adopted it. The brand had momentum. Elon
407
00:20:36,640 --> 00:20:44,600
Musk became chief executive officer of
408
00:20:39,200 --> 00:20:44,600
the merged company for 5 months.
409
00:20:45,919 --> 00:20:52,240
October 2000, while Elon Musk was on his
410
00:20:49,600 --> 00:20:54,960
honeymoon, the board of directors led by
411
00:20:52,240 --> 00:20:58,159
Peter Theel and other Confinity founders
412
00:20:54,960 --> 00:21:00,720
held an emergency meeting and voted Musk
413
00:20:58,159 --> 00:21:03,440
out as CEO.
414
00:21:00,720 --> 00:21:06,559
The official reason cited strategic
415
00:21:03,440 --> 00:21:09,840
disagreements over technology platform.
416
00:21:06,559 --> 00:21:12,159
Musk wanted to use Microsoft software.
417
00:21:09,840 --> 00:21:16,080
The Confinity engineers believed in
418
00:21:12,159 --> 00:21:19,760
Unixbased systems. The actual reason
419
00:21:16,080 --> 00:21:23,600
Theel wanted control, full control. This
420
00:21:19,760 --> 00:21:25,840
was his company now.
421
00:21:23,600 --> 00:21:29,120
Peter Theel became chief executive
422
00:21:25,840 --> 00:21:31,679
officer of PayPal. Elon Musk remained a
423
00:21:29,120 --> 00:21:35,440
major shareholder, but his operational
424
00:21:31,679 --> 00:21:38,240
control was finished.
425
00:21:35,440 --> 00:21:40,720
The two men, both future billionaires,
426
00:21:38,240 --> 00:21:44,880
both future power brokers, had their
427
00:21:40,720 --> 00:21:47,679
first battle. feel one. At its core,
428
00:21:44,880 --> 00:21:50,400
PayPal ran on a simple idea that turned
429
00:21:47,679 --> 00:21:52,880
into a powerful engine.
430
00:21:50,400 --> 00:21:56,960
Every time money moved, PayPal took a
431
00:21:52,880 --> 00:21:59,520
small cut, 2.9% plus 30 cents per
432
00:21:56,960 --> 00:22:02,080
transaction. If that money crossed
433
00:21:59,520 --> 00:22:04,559
borders, the fee climbed to between 2
434
00:22:02,080 --> 00:22:06,720
1/2 and 4%.
435
00:22:04,559 --> 00:22:08,720
Then there was the float, the cash
436
00:22:06,720 --> 00:22:11,200
sitting in PayPal's accounts between
437
00:22:08,720 --> 00:22:14,559
payments, quietly earning interest for
438
00:22:11,200 --> 00:22:16,799
the company. Tiny slices repeated
439
00:22:14,559 --> 00:22:19,919
millions of times.
440
00:22:16,799 --> 00:22:23,679
By 2001, the numbers told the story of a
441
00:22:19,919 --> 00:22:26,640
system coming to life. Every single day,
442
00:22:23,679 --> 00:22:29,679
5 to8 million flowed through PayPal's
443
00:22:26,640 --> 00:22:34,559
network. Each month, that translated
444
00:22:29,679 --> 00:22:37,600
into 10 to$15 million in revenue.
445
00:22:34,559 --> 00:22:40,080
But growth at this speed came at a cost.
446
00:22:37,600 --> 00:22:42,960
Running the system, fighting fraud,
447
00:22:40,080 --> 00:22:48,080
scaling infrastructure, acquiring users,
448
00:22:42,960 --> 00:22:50,400
was burning 20 to30 million every month.
449
00:22:48,080 --> 00:22:52,799
The machine worked, it just wasn't
450
00:22:50,400 --> 00:22:54,799
profitable yet.
451
00:22:52,799 --> 00:22:57,360
Late 2000,
452
00:22:54,799 --> 00:23:01,039
PayPal's data scientists discovered
453
00:22:57,360 --> 00:23:03,440
something crucial. 70% of all PayPal
454
00:23:01,039 --> 00:23:05,120
transactions were happening on eBay
455
00:23:03,440 --> 00:23:07,360
auctions.
456
00:23:05,120 --> 00:23:10,000
People buying and selling random items
457
00:23:07,360 --> 00:23:13,360
on the internet's largest marketplace
458
00:23:10,000 --> 00:23:15,679
were using PayPal to move money. The
459
00:23:13,360 --> 00:23:19,039
strategic insight became immediately
460
00:23:15,679 --> 00:23:23,280
clear. Make PayPal the only payment
461
00:23:19,039 --> 00:23:27,200
method that eBay users trust completely.
462
00:23:23,280 --> 00:23:29,840
Own that market, become indispensable.
463
00:23:27,200 --> 00:23:32,240
The execution buyer protection
464
00:23:29,840 --> 00:23:35,039
guarantees that eBay's own payment
465
00:23:32,240 --> 00:23:37,679
system did not offer
466
00:23:35,039 --> 00:23:41,480
instant payment transfers with no 7-day
467
00:23:37,679 --> 00:23:41,480
check clearing period.
468
00:23:41,919 --> 00:23:47,120
Fraud detection algorithms that were
469
00:23:44,080 --> 00:23:50,000
better than credit card companies. Email
470
00:23:47,120 --> 00:23:54,400
notifications for every transaction.
471
00:23:50,000 --> 00:23:57,760
Simple, clean user interface.
472
00:23:54,400 --> 00:24:01,520
By mid 2001, the strategy was working
473
00:23:57,760 --> 00:24:04,240
beyond all projections. 50% of all eBay
474
00:24:01,520 --> 00:24:07,919
auctions accepted PayPal as a payment
475
00:24:04,240 --> 00:24:10,400
method. PayPal was processing $50
476
00:24:07,919 --> 00:24:13,360
million daily in eBay related
477
00:24:10,400 --> 00:24:18,640
transactions alone. And then eBay
478
00:24:13,360 --> 00:24:20,640
noticed and eBay was not happy.
479
00:24:18,640 --> 00:24:22,960
eBay launched their own competing
480
00:24:20,640 --> 00:24:25,760
service called Billpoint and attempted
481
00:24:22,960 --> 00:24:27,919
to kill PayPal through the marketplace.
482
00:24:25,760 --> 00:24:30,960
They promoted Billoint in search
483
00:24:27,919 --> 00:24:33,679
rankings. They penalized sellers who
484
00:24:30,960 --> 00:24:36,799
only accepted PayPal. They made it
485
00:24:33,679 --> 00:24:38,559
harder to display the PayPal logo. It
486
00:24:36,799 --> 00:24:41,600
was war.
487
00:24:38,559 --> 00:24:44,240
PayPal's response was total war.
488
00:24:41,600 --> 00:24:46,799
Temporarily lower transaction fees to
489
00:24:44,240 --> 00:24:48,960
undercut Billoint.
490
00:24:46,799 --> 00:24:52,159
Guarantee faster money transfers than
491
00:24:48,960 --> 00:24:55,840
eBay could offer. Invest heavily in
492
00:24:52,159 --> 00:24:57,760
superior $30 million deployed in 2001
493
00:24:55,840 --> 00:25:01,520
fraud protection.
494
00:24:57,760 --> 00:25:05,200
Massive marketing spending alone.
495
00:25:01,520 --> 00:25:09,520
By early 2002, the war was over. PayPal
496
00:25:05,200 --> 00:25:13,520
controlled 65% of eBay's payment market.
497
00:25:09,520 --> 00:25:15,840
Bill point at barely 10%.
498
00:25:13,520 --> 00:25:18,159
eBay executives looked at the numbers
499
00:25:15,840 --> 00:25:23,520
and reached the conclusion, if you
500
00:25:18,159 --> 00:25:27,679
cannot beat them, buy them. July 2002,
501
00:25:23,520 --> 00:25:29,760
eBay acquires PayPal for $1.5 billion in
502
00:25:27,679 --> 00:25:33,440
eBay stock.
503
00:25:29,760 --> 00:25:36,240
Peter Theal owned approximately $3.7% of
504
00:25:33,440 --> 00:25:39,520
PayPal at the time of the acquisition.
505
00:25:36,240 --> 00:25:43,039
His equity stake was worth $55 million
506
00:25:39,520 --> 00:25:45,520
in eBay stock. After taxes, he walked
507
00:25:43,039 --> 00:25:49,440
away with approximately $40 million in
508
00:25:45,520 --> 00:25:53,039
liquid wealth. At age 34, he had won his
509
00:25:49,440 --> 00:25:55,120
first billion dollar game.
510
00:25:53,039 --> 00:25:58,400
But the money was not the most valuable
511
00:25:55,120 --> 00:26:02,400
thing he extracted from PayPal. The real
512
00:25:58,400 --> 00:26:04,799
value was the network, the PayPal mafia,
513
00:26:02,400 --> 00:26:08,799
the name they gave themselves. And it
514
00:26:04,799 --> 00:26:11,600
was not ironic. It was descriptive. The
515
00:26:08,799 --> 00:26:13,679
core team that Theel assembled at PayPal
516
00:26:11,600 --> 00:26:16,960
would go on to create some of the most
517
00:26:13,679 --> 00:26:22,880
valuable companies in human history.
518
00:26:16,960 --> 00:26:27,760
Elon Musk Tesla Market Cap $650 billion.
519
00:26:22,880 --> 00:26:30,799
SpaceX estimated value $150 billion.
520
00:26:27,760 --> 00:26:33,760
Reed Hoffman LinkedIn sold to Microsoft
521
00:26:30,799 --> 00:26:37,919
for $26 billion.
522
00:26:33,760 --> 00:26:42,640
Steve Chen, Chad Hurley, Jawed Kareem.
523
00:26:37,919 --> 00:26:47,559
YouTube sold to Google for 1.65 billion,
524
00:26:42,640 --> 00:26:47,559
now worth over 100 billion.
525
00:26:47,760 --> 00:26:54,559
Jeremy Stoppleman and Russell Simmons,
526
00:26:50,480 --> 00:26:57,520
Yelp, peaked at $3 billion market cap.
527
00:26:54,559 --> 00:27:00,640
David Saxs, Yammer, sold to Microsoft
528
00:26:57,520 --> 00:27:03,600
for $1.2 billion.
529
00:27:00,640 --> 00:27:08,320
later founded Craft Ventures. Max
530
00:27:03,600 --> 00:27:12,960
Levchin, a firm 12 billion company. Also
531
00:27:08,320 --> 00:27:15,760
co-founded Yelp. Keith Rabo, COO of
532
00:27:12,960 --> 00:27:20,440
Square, partner at Founders Fund,
533
00:27:15,760 --> 00:27:20,440
investor in dozens of unicorns.
534
00:27:20,559 --> 00:27:27,279
Roloff Bofer, partner at Seoia Capital,
535
00:27:24,480 --> 00:27:31,840
led investments in Instagram, YouTube,
536
00:27:27,279 --> 00:27:34,880
Tumblr, MongoDB, Eventbrite.
537
00:27:31,840 --> 00:27:36,799
Total value created by the PayPal mafia
538
00:27:34,880 --> 00:27:40,320
across all their companies,
539
00:27:36,799 --> 00:27:42,720
conservatively estimated at over $200
540
00:27:40,320 --> 00:27:45,039
billion in combined market
541
00:27:42,720 --> 00:27:47,200
capitalization.
542
00:27:45,039 --> 00:27:49,039
Field's ownership stakes across this
543
00:27:47,200 --> 00:27:52,240
extended network through direct
544
00:27:49,039 --> 00:27:55,440
investments and fund positions estimated
545
00:27:52,240 --> 00:27:57,440
at 2 to4 billion.
546
00:27:55,440 --> 00:28:00,640
This was not just a company that got
547
00:27:57,440 --> 00:28:03,440
acquired. This was the creation of the
548
00:28:00,640 --> 00:28:06,840
most powerful business cartel in Silicon
549
00:28:03,440 --> 00:28:06,840
Valley history.
550
00:28:07,120 --> 00:28:12,640
But what made PayPal different was not
551
00:28:09,600 --> 00:28:14,960
the technology. Not really. The
552
00:28:12,640 --> 00:28:16,559
technology was impressive but not
553
00:28:14,960 --> 00:28:18,720
miraculous.
554
00:28:16,559 --> 00:28:21,440
What made PayPal different was the
555
00:28:18,720 --> 00:28:23,360
culture, the religion of extreme
556
00:28:21,440 --> 00:28:26,320
meritocracy.
557
00:28:23,360 --> 00:28:28,240
Theo's hiring criteria were brutally
558
00:28:26,320 --> 00:28:32,080
specific.
559
00:28:28,240 --> 00:28:35,440
One raw intelligence, high test scores,
560
00:28:32,080 --> 00:28:37,440
ability to solve complex puzzles, proof
561
00:28:35,440 --> 00:28:40,880
you could think better than everyone
562
00:28:37,440 --> 00:28:43,919
else. Two, intensity.
563
00:28:40,880 --> 00:28:45,840
Are you willing to work 100hour weeks?
564
00:28:43,919 --> 00:28:48,640
Are you willing to sacrifice everything
565
00:28:45,840 --> 00:28:52,320
else in your life for the mission?
566
00:28:48,640 --> 00:28:55,120
Three, missionary zeal. Do you actually
567
00:28:52,320 --> 00:28:57,840
believe we are changing the world or are
568
00:28:55,120 --> 00:29:01,120
you here for a paycheck?
569
00:28:57,840 --> 00:29:03,360
Four, loyalty to the tribe. Will you
570
00:29:01,120 --> 00:29:06,640
protect the other members? Will you put
571
00:29:03,360 --> 00:29:10,080
the group above yourself?
572
00:29:06,640 --> 00:29:15,600
Average employee age at PayPal 25 years
573
00:29:10,080 --> 00:29:17,840
old. Average work week 80 to 100 hours.
574
00:29:15,600 --> 00:29:19,360
Office culture libertarian,
575
00:29:17,840 --> 00:29:22,240
anti-regulation,
576
00:29:19,360 --> 00:29:24,320
contrarian, anti-establishment.
577
00:29:22,240 --> 00:29:26,880
They called themselves the mafia
578
00:29:24,320 --> 00:29:30,360
specifically because loyalty mattered
579
00:29:26,880 --> 00:29:30,360
more than credentials.
580
00:29:31,679 --> 00:29:37,120
More than degrees, more than previous
581
00:29:33,840 --> 00:29:40,000
experience, Theo's operating principle
582
00:29:37,120 --> 00:29:42,320
stated explicitly and repeatedly,
583
00:29:40,000 --> 00:29:44,559
talented people do not want to work with
584
00:29:42,320 --> 00:29:48,080
people who are less talented than they
585
00:29:44,559 --> 00:29:50,159
are. So, every new hire must be more
586
00:29:48,080 --> 00:29:53,520
talented than the average current
587
00:29:50,159 --> 00:29:56,320
employee. Otherwise, we are diluting the
588
00:29:53,520 --> 00:29:59,679
talent pool. This created a
589
00:29:56,320 --> 00:30:02,720
self-reinforcing escalation, an arms
590
00:29:59,679 --> 00:30:06,000
race of hiring. Every new person raised
591
00:30:02,720 --> 00:30:09,520
the bar. The standards became higher and
592
00:30:06,000 --> 00:30:12,320
higher. Only the absolute best could get
593
00:30:09,520 --> 00:30:15,360
in. And once you were in, you were
594
00:30:12,320 --> 00:30:17,840
family. But here is what most people
595
00:30:15,360 --> 00:30:19,919
forget about PayPal. Here is the
596
00:30:17,840 --> 00:30:22,720
original vision that got erased from the
597
00:30:19,919 --> 00:30:25,840
mythology. PayPal was supposed to
598
00:30:22,720 --> 00:30:28,240
destroy the Federal Reserve. It was
599
00:30:25,840 --> 00:30:31,520
supposed to undermine state control of
600
00:30:28,240 --> 00:30:33,360
currency. That was the actual mission.
601
00:30:31,520 --> 00:30:38,080
That was why Peter Theel, the
602
00:30:33,360 --> 00:30:40,640
libertarian ideologue, cared so much.
603
00:30:38,080 --> 00:30:43,520
The original vision laid out in Theo's
604
00:30:40,640 --> 00:30:46,960
founding documents. Create a new digital
605
00:30:43,520 --> 00:30:49,679
currency outside government control.
606
00:30:46,960 --> 00:30:52,720
enable true peer-to-peer transactions
607
00:30:49,679 --> 00:30:55,039
globally without state intermediaries.
608
00:30:52,720 --> 00:30:57,919
Undermine the state monopoly on money
609
00:30:55,039 --> 00:31:00,480
creation and management.
610
00:30:57,919 --> 00:31:02,799
Build the financial infrastructure for a
611
00:31:00,480 --> 00:31:05,200
stateless society.
612
00:31:02,799 --> 00:31:08,159
What actually happened? To become
613
00:31:05,200 --> 00:31:10,640
mainstream, to actually scale, PayPal
614
00:31:08,159 --> 00:31:13,039
had to compromise every single founding
615
00:31:10,640 --> 00:31:15,919
principle. They had to integrate with
616
00:31:13,039 --> 00:31:18,880
the traditional banking system. the
617
00:31:15,919 --> 00:31:21,120
enemy. They had to comply with know your
618
00:31:18,880 --> 00:31:22,720
customer and anti-moneylaundering
619
00:31:21,120 --> 00:31:24,799
regulations,
620
00:31:22,720 --> 00:31:26,640
government control.
621
00:31:24,799 --> 00:31:29,440
They had to partner with credit card
622
00:31:26,640 --> 00:31:32,159
companies, the old system they wanted to
623
00:31:29,440 --> 00:31:35,760
destroy. They had to get licensed in
624
00:31:32,159 --> 00:31:37,600
every single state. Regulatory capture.
625
00:31:35,760 --> 00:31:40,480
They had to report suspicious
626
00:31:37,600 --> 00:31:44,000
transactions to federal authorities.
627
00:31:40,480 --> 00:31:47,840
Surveillance. By 2002, PayPal was
628
00:31:44,000 --> 00:31:50,559
regulated exactly like a bank. Partnered
629
00:31:47,840 --> 00:31:53,360
with banks, dependent on banks for all
630
00:31:50,559 --> 00:31:55,600
core functionalities, the libertarian
631
00:31:53,360 --> 00:31:57,679
revolution had become just another
632
00:31:55,600 --> 00:32:00,000
fintech company playing by the
633
00:31:57,679 --> 00:32:02,320
government's rules.
634
00:32:00,000 --> 00:32:04,399
The learned the most important lesson of
635
00:32:02,320 --> 00:32:07,279
his career from PayPal's failure to
636
00:32:04,399 --> 00:32:09,760
achieve its revolutionary mission. You
637
00:32:07,279 --> 00:32:11,440
cannot disrupt the system from inside
638
00:32:09,760 --> 00:32:13,440
the system.
639
00:32:11,440 --> 00:32:15,440
If you want to change the rules, you
640
00:32:13,440 --> 00:32:18,480
cannot ask permission from the people
641
00:32:15,440 --> 00:32:21,760
who wrote them. This lesson would shape
642
00:32:18,480 --> 00:32:24,760
everything he did next. Palunteer
643
00:32:21,760 --> 00:32:24,760
Facebook.
644
00:32:24,799 --> 00:32:31,120
His political investments. Everything.
645
00:32:28,880 --> 00:32:34,320
The PayPal acquisition was not an
646
00:32:31,120 --> 00:32:36,960
ending. It was a beginning. The start of
647
00:32:34,320 --> 00:32:40,000
something much larger. The pattern that
648
00:32:36,960 --> 00:32:42,399
emerged over the next 20 years. PayPal
649
00:32:40,000 --> 00:32:44,559
veterans leave and start new companies
650
00:32:42,399 --> 00:32:47,760
in different sectors.
651
00:32:44,559 --> 00:32:50,640
Theel invests early as angel investor or
652
00:32:47,760 --> 00:32:52,480
through founders fund. PayPal mafia
653
00:32:50,640 --> 00:32:55,360
members join each other's boards of
654
00:32:52,480 --> 00:32:58,320
directors. Cross investment between all
655
00:32:55,360 --> 00:33:00,880
their venture funds creates alignment.
656
00:32:58,320 --> 00:33:03,200
Preferential access to deal flow because
657
00:33:00,880 --> 00:33:05,120
of network relationships.
658
00:33:03,200 --> 00:33:08,000
Shared intelligence about markets,
659
00:33:05,120 --> 00:33:09,840
technology, and opportunities.
660
00:33:08,000 --> 00:33:13,360
real examples of how the network
661
00:33:09,840 --> 00:33:16,960
compounds. Reed Hoffman introduces Theel
662
00:33:13,360 --> 00:33:20,960
to Mark Zuckerberg in 2004.
663
00:33:16,960 --> 00:33:24,640
Theel invests $500,000 in Facebook,
664
00:33:20,960 --> 00:33:27,919
eventually makes over $1 billion.
665
00:33:24,640 --> 00:33:30,080
Roloff Botha joins Sequoia Capital and
666
00:33:27,919 --> 00:33:32,559
invests in multiple Theelbacked
667
00:33:30,080 --> 00:33:34,080
companies creating reciprocal deal
668
00:33:32,559 --> 00:33:36,720
flows.
669
00:33:34,080 --> 00:33:39,679
David Saxs hosts high dollar fundraisers
670
00:33:36,720 --> 00:33:43,960
for Theo's political candidates, mixing
671
00:33:39,679 --> 00:33:43,960
business and politics seamlessly.
672
00:33:44,080 --> 00:33:50,159
Max Levchim provides seed capital for
673
00:33:46,720 --> 00:33:52,159
Palanteer and serves as adviser, lending
674
00:33:50,159 --> 00:33:54,399
credibility.
675
00:33:52,159 --> 00:33:58,399
This network effect multiplier is
676
00:33:54,399 --> 00:34:02,000
precisely how Theel turned $55 million
677
00:33:58,399 --> 00:34:03,919
from PayPal into over $5 billion in net
678
00:34:02,000 --> 00:34:07,279
worth today.
679
00:34:03,919 --> 00:34:09,839
The PayPal Mafia is not a cute nickname.
680
00:34:07,279 --> 00:34:12,320
It is not a metaphor. It is the most
681
00:34:09,839 --> 00:34:14,879
successful organized business cartel in
682
00:34:12,320 --> 00:34:17,440
Silicon Valley history. A
683
00:34:14,879 --> 00:34:19,760
self-reinforcing network of wealth,
684
00:34:17,440 --> 00:34:22,000
power, and influence that has shaped the
685
00:34:19,760 --> 00:34:25,200
entire technology industry for two
686
00:34:22,000 --> 00:34:30,280
decades. And Peter Theel sits at the
687
00:34:25,200 --> 00:34:30,280
center of it all. The Godfather
688
00:34:35,599 --> 00:34:40,800
After PayPal, Peter Theel was a man with
689
00:34:38,560 --> 00:34:44,000
a billion dollars and a dangerous
690
00:34:40,800 --> 00:34:45,760
secret. While other investors were
691
00:34:44,000 --> 00:34:48,560
looking at spreadsheets and profit
692
00:34:45,760 --> 00:34:50,800
margins, Theel was looking at the human
693
00:34:48,560 --> 00:34:52,879
soul through the eyes of his mentor,
694
00:34:50,800 --> 00:34:56,159
Renee Gerard.
695
00:34:52,879 --> 00:34:59,520
Gerard taught him a terrifying truth.
696
00:34:56,159 --> 00:35:02,720
Human beings don't know what they want.
697
00:34:59,520 --> 00:35:05,359
We are mimemetic creatures. We don't
698
00:35:02,720 --> 00:35:07,920
desire things for themselves. We desire
699
00:35:05,359 --> 00:35:10,400
them because other people desire them.
700
00:35:07,920 --> 00:35:13,359
We are copy machines disguised as
701
00:35:10,400 --> 00:35:16,000
individuals.
702
00:35:13,359 --> 00:35:18,720
August 2004.
703
00:35:16,000 --> 00:35:22,000
Facebook has been online for exactly 6
704
00:35:18,720 --> 00:35:24,480
months. It started as a Harvard dorm
705
00:35:22,000 --> 00:35:27,440
project and has now expanded to several
706
00:35:24,480 --> 00:35:30,720
college campuses.
707
00:35:27,440 --> 00:35:34,560
The metrics that Zuckerberg shows Theel
708
00:35:30,720 --> 00:35:38,000
total registered users 200,000
709
00:35:34,560 --> 00:35:41,599
almost entirely college students
710
00:35:38,000 --> 00:35:43,119
daily active user rate 70 to 80%
711
00:35:41,599 --> 00:35:47,920
engagement
712
00:35:43,119 --> 00:35:50,800
unprecedented in web services revenue $0
713
00:35:47,920 --> 00:35:54,880
no business model yet valuation
714
00:35:50,800 --> 00:35:56,720
Zuckerberg is asking for $5 million
715
00:35:54,880 --> 00:35:59,280
every single professional venture
716
00:35:56,720 --> 00:36:02,079
capitalist in Silicon Valley has passed
717
00:35:59,280 --> 00:36:05,200
on Facebook. Every major firm has looked
718
00:36:02,079 --> 00:36:08,560
into it and said no. The reasons they
719
00:36:05,200 --> 00:36:12,240
gave it is just a college directory
720
00:36:08,560 --> 00:36:14,560
limited market. Frenster has already 5
721
00:36:12,240 --> 00:36:17,520
million users and is the leader in
722
00:36:14,560 --> 00:36:20,640
social networking. MySpace is dominant
723
00:36:17,520 --> 00:36:23,040
with 8 million users and growing fast.
724
00:36:20,640 --> 00:36:26,400
There is no obvious business model or
725
00:36:23,040 --> 00:36:29,680
revenue stream. Mark Zuckerberg is too
726
00:36:26,400 --> 00:36:32,240
young, too inexperienced, too risky as a
727
00:36:29,680 --> 00:36:34,480
founder.
728
00:36:32,240 --> 00:36:37,040
Peter Theel saw something completely
729
00:36:34,480 --> 00:36:39,200
different, something that had nothing to
730
00:36:37,040 --> 00:36:41,680
do with technology.
731
00:36:39,200 --> 00:36:44,640
Theel had spent years studying Renee
732
00:36:41,680 --> 00:36:46,720
Gerard's mimemetic theory, the
733
00:36:44,640 --> 00:36:50,000
philosophical framework that would shape
734
00:36:46,720 --> 00:36:53,040
his entire investment approach. The core
735
00:36:50,000 --> 00:36:56,240
idea, humans do not have original
736
00:36:53,040 --> 00:36:59,280
desires. We desire what other people
737
00:36:56,240 --> 00:37:02,720
desire. We learn what to want by
738
00:36:59,280 --> 00:37:07,280
watching other people want. Desire is
739
00:37:02,720 --> 00:37:09,119
imitative. Desire is social. Desire is
740
00:37:07,280 --> 00:37:11,359
mimemetic.
741
00:37:09,119 --> 00:37:13,359
When Theel looked at Facebook, he did
742
00:37:11,359 --> 00:37:16,079
not see a technology platform for
743
00:37:13,359 --> 00:37:18,480
connecting friends. He saw something far
744
00:37:16,079 --> 00:37:21,680
more powerful. He saw the perfect
745
00:37:18,480 --> 00:37:24,800
mimemetic desire machine. The insight
746
00:37:21,680 --> 00:37:26,800
that made Theo invest. Social networks
747
00:37:24,800 --> 00:37:29,760
do not create value by connecting
748
00:37:26,800 --> 00:37:32,800
people. That is not where the money is.
749
00:37:29,760 --> 00:37:35,040
The money is in comparison. The money is
750
00:37:32,800 --> 00:37:37,440
in making people compare themselves to
751
00:37:35,040 --> 00:37:40,160
each other constantly.
752
00:37:37,440 --> 00:37:42,880
You see your friend's vacation photos.
753
00:37:40,160 --> 00:37:45,280
You want a better vacation. You see
754
00:37:42,880 --> 00:37:47,920
someone's job promotion announcement.
755
00:37:45,280 --> 00:37:50,560
You want higher status. You see
756
00:37:47,920 --> 00:37:53,200
someone's relationship photos. You want
757
00:37:50,560 --> 00:37:55,040
romance.
758
00:37:53,200 --> 00:37:58,320
You see someone getting likes and
759
00:37:55,040 --> 00:38:01,280
comments. You want validation.
760
00:37:58,320 --> 00:38:04,560
You see someone's perfect life. You feel
761
00:38:01,280 --> 00:38:07,359
your own life is inadequate.
762
00:38:04,560 --> 00:38:10,720
Facebook was not selling connections.
763
00:38:07,359 --> 00:38:13,200
Facebook was selling envy. And envy,
764
00:38:10,720 --> 00:38:15,680
feel the understood from Gerard is the
765
00:38:13,200 --> 00:38:18,720
most powerful economic force in human
766
00:38:15,680 --> 00:38:22,480
history. The desire for what others
767
00:38:18,720 --> 00:38:25,760
have. They need to keep up. The fear of
768
00:38:22,480 --> 00:38:28,960
being left behind. Infinite envy creates
769
00:38:25,760 --> 00:38:32,000
infinite demand. Infinite demand creates
770
00:38:28,960 --> 00:38:34,560
infinite value.
771
00:38:32,000 --> 00:38:38,480
September 2004.
772
00:38:34,560 --> 00:38:40,400
Peter Theal wires $500,000 to Facebook
773
00:38:38,480 --> 00:38:44,640
incororated.
774
00:38:40,400 --> 00:38:47,520
The deal terms 10.2% equity ownership in
775
00:38:44,640 --> 00:38:49,359
the company, a board seat giving him
776
00:38:47,520 --> 00:38:50,960
governance rights and inside
777
00:38:49,359 --> 00:38:53,839
information,
778
00:38:50,960 --> 00:38:57,200
right of first refusal on all future
779
00:38:53,839 --> 00:39:00,000
funding rounds, post money valuation of
780
00:38:57,200 --> 00:39:02,160
exactly $5 million.
781
00:39:00,000 --> 00:39:05,359
Mark Zuckerberg's reaction after the
782
00:39:02,160 --> 00:39:08,320
deal closed. This guy actually gets it.
783
00:39:05,359 --> 00:39:11,359
He understands what we are building.
784
00:39:08,320 --> 00:39:13,280
Silicon Valley's reaction. Peter Theal
785
00:39:11,359 --> 00:39:16,400
just threw away half a million dollars
786
00:39:13,280 --> 00:39:19,040
on a college kid's website. This will be
787
00:39:16,400 --> 00:39:21,280
his biggest failure.
788
00:39:19,040 --> 00:39:23,520
What happened next rewrote the history
789
00:39:21,280 --> 00:39:28,960
of venture capital.
790
00:39:23,520 --> 00:39:32,560
2004, end of year. 200,000 users grew to
791
00:39:28,960 --> 00:39:35,119
1 million users. Five times growth in 4
792
00:39:32,560 --> 00:39:38,720
months. 2005
793
00:39:35,119 --> 00:39:44,160
1 million users becomes 5.5 million
794
00:39:38,720 --> 00:39:47,520
users. 2006 5.5 million users becomes 12
795
00:39:44,160 --> 00:39:51,119
million users. 2007
796
00:39:47,520 --> 00:39:55,839
12 million users exploded to 50 million
797
00:39:51,119 --> 00:39:58,640
users. 2008 50 million users doubles to
798
00:39:55,839 --> 00:40:00,160
100 million users.
799
00:39:58,640 --> 00:40:03,839
2009
800
00:40:00,160 --> 00:40:07,119
100 million users becomes 350 million
801
00:40:03,839 --> 00:40:10,320
users. Growth rate the user base was
802
00:40:07,119 --> 00:40:12,640
doubling every 6 to9 months for five
803
00:40:10,320 --> 00:40:15,280
consecutive years.
804
00:40:12,640 --> 00:40:17,920
This growth curve had never been seen
805
00:40:15,280 --> 00:40:21,440
before in business history. Not even
806
00:40:17,920 --> 00:40:26,240
close. As Facebook grew, its valuation
807
00:40:21,440 --> 00:40:28,400
grew and Peter the stake grew with it.
808
00:40:26,240 --> 00:40:32,160
May 2005,
809
00:40:28,400 --> 00:40:35,040
Axel Partners invest $12.7 million at
810
00:40:32,160 --> 00:40:38,800
$100 million valuation.
811
00:40:35,040 --> 00:40:42,320
Field's 10.2% stake is now worth $10.2
812
00:40:38,800 --> 00:40:44,960
million. He has achieved 20 times return
813
00:40:42,320 --> 00:40:48,560
in 9 months.
814
00:40:44,960 --> 00:40:52,800
April 2006, Greylock Partners and
815
00:40:48,560 --> 00:40:55,520
Meritech Capital invest $27.5 million at
816
00:40:52,800 --> 00:40:59,440
$500 million valuation.
817
00:40:55,520 --> 00:41:03,040
The stake is now worth $51 million, 100
818
00:40:59,440 --> 00:41:05,440
times return on his original investment.
819
00:41:03,040 --> 00:41:10,000
October 2007,
820
00:41:05,440 --> 00:41:13,680
Microsoft invests $240 million, valuing
821
00:41:10,000 --> 00:41:18,079
Facebook at $15 billion.
822
00:41:13,680 --> 00:41:22,640
The stake is now worth $1.5 billion, a
823
00:41:18,079 --> 00:41:25,680
300,000 times return in 3 years.
824
00:41:22,640 --> 00:41:28,000
2009 through 2011.
825
00:41:25,680 --> 00:41:31,119
Multiple private sales and secondary
826
00:41:28,000 --> 00:41:32,960
transactions value Facebook at $50
827
00:41:31,119 --> 00:41:35,920
billion.
828
00:41:32,960 --> 00:41:39,359
The stake, if he had held everything,
829
00:41:35,920 --> 00:41:42,720
would be worth $5 billion.
830
00:41:39,359 --> 00:41:45,119
May 18th, 2012,
831
00:41:42,720 --> 00:41:49,920
Facebook goes public at a market
832
00:41:45,119 --> 00:41:52,720
capitalization of $14 billion.
833
00:41:49,920 --> 00:41:55,760
But the does not hold everything. He is
834
00:41:52,720 --> 00:41:59,119
strategic. He is tactical. He takes
835
00:41:55,760 --> 00:42:03,040
profits. At the initial public offering,
836
00:41:59,119 --> 00:42:04,800
Theel sells $640 million worth of shares
837
00:42:03,040 --> 00:42:07,119
immediately.
838
00:42:04,800 --> 00:42:09,280
Over the following 6 months, he sells
839
00:42:07,119 --> 00:42:11,680
the remainder of his stake in carefully
840
00:42:09,280 --> 00:42:13,839
timed transactions.
841
00:42:11,680 --> 00:42:18,640
Total cash realized from the Facebook
842
00:42:13,839 --> 00:42:21,920
investment approximately $1 billion.
843
00:42:18,640 --> 00:42:23,920
Initial investment in August 2004,
844
00:42:21,920 --> 00:42:28,079
$500,000.
845
00:42:23,920 --> 00:42:29,839
Total cash realized by end of 2012, $1
846
00:42:28,079 --> 00:42:34,560
billion.
847
00:42:29,839 --> 00:42:36,480
Total return, 2,000 times in 8 years.
848
00:42:34,560 --> 00:42:39,359
This is the single greatest venture
849
00:42:36,480 --> 00:42:42,480
capital return in recorded history.
850
00:42:39,359 --> 00:42:45,680
Nothing else comes close. But here is
851
00:42:42,480 --> 00:42:48,560
the twist. The haunting decision that
852
00:42:45,680 --> 00:42:52,160
Theel himself admits keeps him awake at
853
00:42:48,560 --> 00:42:54,880
night. Selling was a mistake.
854
00:42:52,160 --> 00:42:58,240
If Peter Theal had held his original
855
00:42:54,880 --> 00:43:00,880
10.2% stake and had never sold a single
856
00:42:58,240 --> 00:43:04,560
share, that stake at Facebook's peak
857
00:43:00,880 --> 00:43:08,319
market capitalization in 2021 would have
858
00:43:04,560 --> 00:43:11,520
been worth 102 billion.
859
00:43:08,319 --> 00:43:14,480
$12 billion.
860
00:43:11,520 --> 00:43:16,640
He left $100 billion on the table by
861
00:43:14,480 --> 00:43:18,880
selling early.
862
00:43:16,640 --> 00:43:21,280
The himself admitted this publicly
863
00:43:18,880 --> 00:43:24,079
saying, "The mistake was not investing
864
00:43:21,280 --> 00:43:25,680
in Facebook. The mistake was selling
865
00:43:24,079 --> 00:43:28,400
Facebook.
866
00:43:25,680 --> 00:43:30,960
I should have held longer. I should have
867
00:43:28,400 --> 00:43:34,000
believed more. It is the single most
868
00:43:30,960 --> 00:43:35,680
expensive decision of his life."
869
00:43:34,000 --> 00:43:38,160
Years
870
00:43:35,680 --> 00:43:41,200
later in a Stanford lecture, Theo
871
00:43:38,160 --> 00:43:44,720
explained his actual investment thesis,
872
00:43:41,200 --> 00:43:46,640
the real reason he invested. I did not
873
00:43:44,720 --> 00:43:49,440
invest in Facebook because I thought
874
00:43:46,640 --> 00:43:51,200
social networks were going to be big. I
875
00:43:49,440 --> 00:43:53,599
invested because I understood that
876
00:43:51,200 --> 00:43:57,359
humans will always want to be more like
877
00:43:53,599 --> 00:44:01,119
their peers. That desire is infinite. It
878
00:43:57,359 --> 00:44:03,680
never stops. It only intensifies.
879
00:44:01,119 --> 00:44:07,280
An infinite desire creates infinite
880
00:44:03,680 --> 00:44:08,800
value. The mimemetic theory made him a
881
00:44:07,280 --> 00:44:11,040
billionaire.
882
00:44:08,800 --> 00:44:14,640
The mimemetic theory also made him
883
00:44:11,040 --> 00:44:18,000
terrified of what he had helped create.
884
00:44:14,640 --> 00:44:20,480
A machine that weaponizes human envy. A
885
00:44:18,000 --> 00:44:22,400
system that profits from making people
886
00:44:20,480 --> 00:44:25,040
feel inadequate.
887
00:44:22,400 --> 00:44:27,599
An algorithm that amplifies the worst
888
00:44:25,040 --> 00:44:29,839
aspects of human nature.
889
00:44:27,599 --> 00:44:32,720
Peter Theal helped build the most
890
00:44:29,839 --> 00:44:36,240
powerful behavior modification system in
891
00:44:32,720 --> 00:44:40,119
human history. And then he cashed out
892
00:44:36,240 --> 00:44:40,119
for a billion dollars.
893
00:44:46,480 --> 00:44:51,359
2003
894
00:44:48,000 --> 00:44:54,560
Peter Theel has a problem. It is the
895
00:44:51,359 --> 00:44:57,440
CIA's problem, but they think the can
896
00:44:54,560 --> 00:45:00,240
solve it. His PayPal anti-fraud
897
00:44:57,440 --> 00:45:02,560
algorithms have become so sophisticated
898
00:45:00,240 --> 00:45:04,960
at detecting patterns in financial
899
00:45:02,560 --> 00:45:07,119
transactions at finding terrorists
900
00:45:04,960 --> 00:45:10,880
trying to move money through banking
901
00:45:07,119 --> 00:45:14,319
systems that the CIA venture capital arm
902
00:45:10,880 --> 00:45:17,280
in QEL requested a meeting.
903
00:45:14,319 --> 00:45:19,920
The pitch from the CIA, can you build
904
00:45:17,280 --> 00:45:22,400
what you built for PayPal but for
905
00:45:19,920 --> 00:45:26,079
national security? Can you find
906
00:45:22,400 --> 00:45:28,000
terrorists the way you found fraudsters?
907
00:45:26,079 --> 00:45:30,400
May 2003,
908
00:45:28,000 --> 00:45:32,800
Peter Theel co-founds Palunteer
909
00:45:30,400 --> 00:45:34,400
Technologies with an unusual group of
910
00:45:32,800 --> 00:45:37,359
co-founders.
911
00:45:34,400 --> 00:45:40,800
The founding team, Alex Karp, chief
912
00:45:37,359 --> 00:45:43,200
executive officer, Stanford Law Degree,
913
00:45:40,800 --> 00:45:45,920
philosophy, PhD from Frankfurt
914
00:45:43,200 --> 00:45:48,480
University in Germany, former human
915
00:45:45,920 --> 00:45:50,079
rights lawyer who once worked on refugee
916
00:45:48,480 --> 00:45:52,560
cases.
917
00:45:50,079 --> 00:45:54,560
an extremely odd choice to run a company
918
00:45:52,560 --> 00:45:56,720
that will become the most powerful
919
00:45:54,560 --> 00:45:58,240
surveillance technology provider on
920
00:45:56,720 --> 00:46:00,880
Earth.
921
00:45:58,240 --> 00:46:03,920
Nathan Gettings, chief technology
922
00:46:00,880 --> 00:46:06,880
officer. PayPal's lead security
923
00:46:03,920 --> 00:46:09,839
engineer. Brilliant programmer. Joe
924
00:46:06,880 --> 00:46:12,800
Lndale, a Stanford undergraduate
925
00:46:09,839 --> 00:46:16,480
student, barely 20 years old, one of the
926
00:46:12,800 --> 00:46:19,520
first Theel fellows. Steven Cohen,
927
00:46:16,480 --> 00:46:21,440
PayPal's chief security architect. the
928
00:46:19,520 --> 00:46:24,319
person who actually built the fraud
929
00:46:21,440 --> 00:46:26,079
detection algorithms. Initial funding,
930
00:46:24,319 --> 00:46:28,240
$2 million,
931
00:46:26,079 --> 00:46:31,839
entirely from Peter Theel's personal
932
00:46:28,240 --> 00:46:34,000
capital. No outside investors yet. This
933
00:46:31,839 --> 00:46:36,640
is his project.
934
00:46:34,000 --> 00:46:39,280
The mission statement, build software
935
00:46:36,640 --> 00:46:41,839
that can find patterns in massive data
936
00:46:39,280 --> 00:46:43,760
sets from disperate, incompatible
937
00:46:41,839 --> 00:46:46,800
sources.
938
00:46:43,760 --> 00:46:49,119
The kind of data that if intelligency
939
00:46:46,800 --> 00:46:52,160
agencies had been able to analyze it
940
00:46:49,119 --> 00:46:55,040
properly could have prevented September
941
00:46:52,160 --> 00:46:58,000
11th, 2001.
942
00:46:55,040 --> 00:47:00,319
The company name Palunteer
943
00:46:58,000 --> 00:47:02,800
named after the seeing stones in Lord of
944
00:47:00,319 --> 00:47:04,640
the Rings, the magical orbs that allow
945
00:47:02,800 --> 00:47:07,599
their possessors to see anything
946
00:47:04,640 --> 00:47:10,800
happening anywhere in Middle Earth. Even
947
00:47:07,599 --> 00:47:13,200
the name revealed the ambition total
948
00:47:10,800 --> 00:47:17,960
information awareness.
949
00:47:13,200 --> 00:47:17,960
the ability to see everything.
950
00:47:18,240 --> 00:47:25,680
2005, the CIA's venture capital arm in
951
00:47:22,319 --> 00:47:28,800
CQEL invest $2 million in Palanteer's
952
00:47:25,680 --> 00:47:31,760
series A funding round. This was not
953
00:47:28,800 --> 00:47:34,560
just money. This was validation from the
954
00:47:31,760 --> 00:47:36,960
intelligence community, a stamp of
955
00:47:34,560 --> 00:47:39,440
approval from the most secretive, most
956
00:47:36,960 --> 00:47:41,119
paranoid organization in the US
957
00:47:39,440 --> 00:47:44,960
government.
958
00:47:41,119 --> 00:47:47,040
Initial contract value undisclosed.
959
00:47:44,960 --> 00:47:50,319
Government intelligence contracts are
960
00:47:47,040 --> 00:47:53,040
classified by law, but industry analysts
961
00:47:50,319 --> 00:47:56,800
estimate the first CIA contracts were
962
00:47:53,040 --> 00:47:59,920
worth5 to 10 million annually. The
963
00:47:56,800 --> 00:48:03,119
product was called Palunteer Gotham. The
964
00:47:59,920 --> 00:48:06,319
name itself was significant. Gotham, the
965
00:48:03,119 --> 00:48:09,359
dark city that needs Batman. The city
966
00:48:06,319 --> 00:48:11,839
that needs surveillance to fight crime.
967
00:48:09,359 --> 00:48:13,839
core technical capabilities.
968
00:48:11,839 --> 00:48:16,640
Integrate data from dozens of
969
00:48:13,839 --> 00:48:18,560
incompatible government databases that
970
00:48:16,640 --> 00:48:21,280
were never designed to communicate with
971
00:48:18,560 --> 00:48:23,920
each other. From hidden connections
972
00:48:21,280 --> 00:48:27,839
between people, places, financial
973
00:48:23,920 --> 00:48:30,480
transactions, communications metadata,
974
00:48:27,839 --> 00:48:32,800
visualize networks of relationships in
975
00:48:30,480 --> 00:48:34,720
ways human analysts could understand
976
00:48:32,800 --> 00:48:37,040
intuitively.
977
00:48:34,720 --> 00:48:39,280
Predict future behavior and likely
978
00:48:37,040 --> 00:48:42,240
attack patterns based on historical
979
00:48:39,280 --> 00:48:45,119
data. Specific use cases for
980
00:48:42,240 --> 00:48:48,079
intelligence agencies. Track terrorist
981
00:48:45,119 --> 00:48:50,079
cells across multiple countries. Map
982
00:48:48,079 --> 00:48:52,319
drug trafficking routes from production
983
00:48:50,079 --> 00:48:54,400
to distribution.
984
00:48:52,319 --> 00:48:57,440
Identify money laundering networks
985
00:48:54,400 --> 00:48:59,920
moving funds for organized crime.
986
00:48:57,440 --> 00:49:02,079
Predict insurgent attacks in Iraq and
987
00:48:59,920 --> 00:49:05,760
Afghanistan based on pattern
988
00:49:02,079 --> 00:49:09,520
recognition. It worked. The software
989
00:49:05,760 --> 00:49:12,640
actually worked. By 2006, Palanteer
990
00:49:09,520 --> 00:49:15,599
software was being actively used in Iraq
991
00:49:12,640 --> 00:49:19,200
for counterinsurgency operations and in
992
00:49:15,599 --> 00:49:21,440
IED attack prediction.
993
00:49:19,200 --> 00:49:24,480
Afghanistan for predicting Taliban
994
00:49:21,440 --> 00:49:28,000
leadership networks. Langley, Virginia
995
00:49:24,480 --> 00:49:30,800
at CIA headquarters for threat analysis.
996
00:49:28,000 --> 00:49:34,920
FBI field officers nationwide for
997
00:49:30,800 --> 00:49:34,920
domestic terrorism investigation.
998
00:49:34,960 --> 00:49:41,119
Early revenue growth told the story of
999
00:49:37,119 --> 00:49:43,920
Palunteers's expanding reach. 2005,
1000
00:49:41,119 --> 00:49:50,240
$3 billion in revenue. Government
1001
00:49:43,920 --> 00:49:55,760
contracts only. 2006, $10 million. 2007,
1002
00:49:50,240 --> 00:50:00,319
$25 million. 2008, $50 million. First
1003
00:49:55,760 --> 00:50:06,800
commercial clients added 2010, $150
1004
00:50:00,319 --> 00:50:08,559
million. 2012, $400 million. By 2012,
1005
00:50:06,800 --> 00:50:10,720
Palanteer had achieved something
1006
00:50:08,559 --> 00:50:14,400
extremely rare for a high- growth
1007
00:50:10,720 --> 00:50:16,720
technology company. Profitability.
1008
00:50:14,400 --> 00:50:19,680
They were actually making money, not
1009
00:50:16,720 --> 00:50:22,720
just burning venture capital. Customer
1010
00:50:19,680 --> 00:50:26,720
revenue breakdown in 2012.
1011
00:50:22,720 --> 00:50:29,280
Government contracts, 60% of revenue,
1012
00:50:26,720 --> 00:50:33,760
$240 million.
1013
00:50:29,280 --> 00:50:36,480
Commercial clients, 40% of revenue, $160
1014
00:50:33,760 --> 00:50:40,559
million.
1015
00:50:36,480 --> 00:50:42,880
May the 1st, 2011. Palanteer Software
1016
00:50:40,559 --> 00:50:46,079
plays a role in the operation that kills
1017
00:50:42,880 --> 00:50:48,319
Osama bin Laden. A role that remains
1018
00:50:46,079 --> 00:50:51,520
partially classified, but has been
1019
00:50:48,319 --> 00:50:54,240
confirmed by multiple sources.
1020
00:50:51,520 --> 00:50:56,559
How Palanteer contributed? Palanteer
1021
00:50:54,240 --> 00:50:58,960
Gotham integrated dozens of different
1022
00:50:56,559 --> 00:51:01,440
intelligence sources.
1023
00:50:58,960 --> 00:51:04,559
CIA human intelligence on career
1024
00:51:01,440 --> 00:51:07,200
networks. NSA signal intelligence
1025
00:51:04,559 --> 00:51:10,000
including phone metadata and email
1026
00:51:07,200 --> 00:51:13,200
communications patterns.
1027
00:51:10,000 --> 00:51:16,000
National Geospatial Intelligence Agency
1028
00:51:13,200 --> 00:51:19,200
satellite imagery of potential compound
1029
00:51:16,000 --> 00:51:21,680
locations. historical pattern analysis
1030
00:51:19,200 --> 00:51:24,800
of previous high value target operations
1031
00:51:21,680 --> 00:51:26,880
in Pakistan.
1032
00:51:24,800 --> 00:51:29,200
The system identified patterns and
1033
00:51:26,880 --> 00:51:31,680
connections that human analysts working
1034
00:51:29,200 --> 00:51:34,960
with separate databases that did not
1035
00:51:31,680 --> 00:51:37,200
communicate had missed. It narrowed the
1036
00:51:34,960 --> 00:51:41,599
search area and helped confirm the
1037
00:51:37,200 --> 00:51:43,680
identity of the Abotabad compound.
1038
00:51:41,599 --> 00:51:46,640
When asked about Palanteer's role in the
1039
00:51:43,680 --> 00:51:49,920
bin Laden operation, The gave carefully
1040
00:51:46,640 --> 00:51:52,720
worded response. I cannot comment on
1041
00:51:49,920 --> 00:51:55,680
specific operations or specific clients
1042
00:51:52,720 --> 00:51:59,359
due to classification requirements, but
1043
00:51:55,680 --> 00:52:01,599
I will say this. Tools that help protect
1044
00:51:59,359 --> 00:52:04,800
American lives and help intelligence
1045
00:52:01,599 --> 00:52:08,160
professionals do their jobs better. That
1046
00:52:04,800 --> 00:52:10,400
is our mission.
1047
00:52:08,160 --> 00:52:13,359
This single operation, this single
1048
00:52:10,400 --> 00:52:15,359
success legitimized Palanteer's entire
1049
00:52:13,359 --> 00:52:17,839
value proposition to the national
1050
00:52:15,359 --> 00:52:20,640
security establishment.
1051
00:52:17,839 --> 00:52:23,119
After bin Laden, the contracts poured
1052
00:52:20,640 --> 00:52:25,839
in.
1053
00:52:23,119 --> 00:52:28,800
After the bin Laden success, Palanteer's
1054
00:52:25,839 --> 00:52:33,440
government business exploded. Revenue
1055
00:52:28,800 --> 00:52:38,720
growth from 2012 to 2015.
1056
00:52:33,440 --> 00:52:42,160
2012, $400 million in revenue. 2013,
1057
00:52:38,720 --> 00:52:47,599
$600 million. 2014,
1058
00:52:42,160 --> 00:52:50,640
$900 million. 2015, $1.5 billion in
1059
00:52:47,599 --> 00:52:53,640
revenue. Major new contracts announced
1060
00:52:50,640 --> 00:52:53,640
publicly.
1061
00:52:55,040 --> 00:53:02,480
US Department of Defense, $222 million
1062
00:52:59,599 --> 00:53:04,240
for a 3-year data integration platform
1063
00:53:02,480 --> 00:53:08,240
contract.
1064
00:53:04,240 --> 00:53:11,359
US Army, $800 million for comprehensive
1065
00:53:08,240 --> 00:53:13,520
data platform modernization across all
1066
00:53:11,359 --> 00:53:17,680
Army systems.
1067
00:53:13,520 --> 00:53:20,400
US Special Operations Command, $444
1068
00:53:17,680 --> 00:53:22,079
million for targeting and intelligence
1069
00:53:20,400 --> 00:53:25,599
fusion,
1070
00:53:22,079 --> 00:53:27,920
Department of Homeland Security, $240
1071
00:53:25,599 --> 00:53:31,040
million for border security and
1072
00:53:27,920 --> 00:53:33,520
immigration enforcement systems.
1073
00:53:31,040 --> 00:53:36,079
Palanteer had become the single most
1074
00:53:33,520 --> 00:53:37,920
important software company in the entire
1075
00:53:36,079 --> 00:53:39,599
US defense and intelligence
1076
00:53:37,920 --> 00:53:41,839
establishment.
1077
00:53:39,599 --> 00:53:45,040
More important than traditional defense
1078
00:53:41,839 --> 00:53:47,040
contractors, more embedded in classified
1079
00:53:45,040 --> 00:53:49,680
operations.
1080
00:53:47,040 --> 00:53:51,599
Simultaneously, Palanteer launched a
1081
00:53:49,680 --> 00:53:54,960
commercial product called Palunteer
1082
00:53:51,599 --> 00:53:58,000
Foundry for private sector clients. The
1083
00:53:54,960 --> 00:54:00,240
sales pitch to corporate America. Your
1084
00:53:58,000 --> 00:54:03,920
company has exactly the same problem as
1085
00:54:00,240 --> 00:54:06,559
the CIA. Too much data, too many
1086
00:54:03,920 --> 00:54:08,880
incompatible systems, not enough
1087
00:54:06,559 --> 00:54:11,520
insight. We can help you find the
1088
00:54:08,880 --> 00:54:13,680
patterns you are missing. Major
1089
00:54:11,520 --> 00:54:17,200
commercial clients and estimated
1090
00:54:13,680 --> 00:54:22,079
contract values.
1091
00:54:17,200 --> 00:54:23,839
JP Morgan Chase over $100 million fraud
1092
00:54:22,079 --> 00:54:27,200
detection and financial crime
1093
00:54:23,839 --> 00:54:30,079
prevention. Morgan Stanley over $50
1094
00:54:27,200 --> 00:54:34,880
million risk management and regulatory
1095
00:54:30,079 --> 00:54:37,040
compliance. Airbus over $75 million
1096
00:54:34,880 --> 00:54:39,760
supply chain optimization and
1097
00:54:37,040 --> 00:54:43,920
manufacturing analytics.
1098
00:54:39,760 --> 00:54:46,559
Merc Pharmaceuticals over $60 million
1099
00:54:43,920 --> 00:54:49,440
drug discovery analytics and clinical
1100
00:54:46,559 --> 00:54:54,000
trial data integration.
1101
00:54:49,440 --> 00:54:57,920
BP over $80 million oil field production
1102
00:54:54,000 --> 00:55:01,119
optimization and predictive maintenance.
1103
00:54:57,920 --> 00:55:02,960
Commercial revenue growth from 2015 to
1104
00:55:01,119 --> 00:55:06,240
2020.
1105
00:55:02,960 --> 00:55:09,920
In 2015, they got $600 million
1106
00:55:06,240 --> 00:55:12,720
commercial revenue. By 2016, the number
1107
00:55:09,920 --> 00:55:16,559
was around $800 billion.
1108
00:55:12,720 --> 00:55:18,800
In 2017, they reached $1.1 billion in
1109
00:55:16,559 --> 00:55:23,680
commercial revenue, and it became their
1110
00:55:18,800 --> 00:55:26,720
peak year. 2018 made them hit the $750
1111
00:55:23,680 --> 00:55:30,200
million mark, a temporary decline due to
1112
00:55:26,720 --> 00:55:30,200
customer churn.
1113
00:55:30,240 --> 00:55:36,000
In 2019, revenue was around $745
1114
00:55:34,400 --> 00:55:39,920
million,
1115
00:55:36,000 --> 00:55:43,920
and by 2020, they reached $1.1 billion.
1116
00:55:39,920 --> 00:55:47,040
Again, this recovery was driven by COVID
1117
00:55:43,920 --> 00:55:49,200
analytics contracts. Palanteer had
1118
00:55:47,040 --> 00:55:52,559
created a business model with two
1119
00:55:49,200 --> 00:55:54,480
enormous locked in customer bases, the
1120
00:55:52,559 --> 00:55:58,680
US government and the largest
1121
00:55:54,480 --> 00:55:58,680
corporations in the world.
1122
00:56:00,160 --> 00:56:05,280
But Palanteer's work, especially for
1123
00:56:02,480 --> 00:56:08,720
government agencies, attracted intense
1124
00:56:05,280 --> 00:56:11,680
controversy and moral criticism.
1125
00:56:08,720 --> 00:56:15,760
In 2019, they secured a contract with
1126
00:56:11,680 --> 00:56:18,319
ICE for $49 million. The purpose of the
1127
00:56:15,760 --> 00:56:20,720
contract was enforcement and removal
1128
00:56:18,319 --> 00:56:23,680
operations systems,
1129
00:56:20,720 --> 00:56:26,079
meaning a software used to identify,
1130
00:56:23,680 --> 00:56:28,880
track, and process undocumented
1131
00:56:26,079 --> 00:56:31,040
immigrants for deportation.
1132
00:56:28,880 --> 00:56:33,839
This project came with a controversy
1133
00:56:31,040 --> 00:56:35,839
attached. The software was used during
1134
00:56:33,839 --> 00:56:38,640
the family separation policy at the
1135
00:56:35,839 --> 00:56:42,079
southern border. Children separated from
1136
00:56:38,640 --> 00:56:44,160
their parents, families torn apart.
1137
00:56:42,079 --> 00:56:46,960
Palanteer Software helped make it
1138
00:56:44,160 --> 00:56:49,520
operationally possible. Hundreds of
1139
00:56:46,960 --> 00:56:51,839
Palunteer employees signed an internal
1140
00:56:49,520 --> 00:56:55,040
letter demanding the company cancel the
1141
00:56:51,839 --> 00:56:57,280
ICE contract.
1142
00:56:55,040 --> 00:57:00,319
They argued the company was enabling
1143
00:56:57,280 --> 00:57:04,160
human rights abuses. The and Karp's
1144
00:57:00,319 --> 00:57:06,079
response, absolute refusal, the contract
1145
00:57:04,160 --> 00:57:08,720
would continue.
1146
00:57:06,079 --> 00:57:10,960
Alex K gave a public statement saying
1147
00:57:08,720 --> 00:57:14,559
that they had chosen sides and that the
1148
00:57:10,960 --> 00:57:16,960
company supported American institutions.
1149
00:57:14,559 --> 00:57:20,319
But this was not the only controversy
1150
00:57:16,960 --> 00:57:23,280
Palanteer has faced. Palanteer worked
1151
00:57:20,319 --> 00:57:27,119
alongside the NYPD with a contract
1152
00:57:23,280 --> 00:57:30,799
estimated between 50 and $100 billion.
1153
00:57:27,119 --> 00:57:33,119
The mission predictive policy.
1154
00:57:30,799 --> 00:57:35,760
They were asked to use historical crime
1155
00:57:33,119 --> 00:57:38,640
data to predict where future crimes will
1156
00:57:35,760 --> 00:57:41,359
occur and who is likely to commit them.
1157
00:57:38,640 --> 00:57:44,240
The controversy civil rights groups
1158
00:57:41,359 --> 00:57:47,040
argued that system perpetuated racial
1159
00:57:44,240 --> 00:57:50,000
bias. Minority neighborhoods were
1160
00:57:47,040 --> 00:57:52,240
flagged as high risk. Innocent people
1161
00:57:50,000 --> 00:57:55,520
were put under surveillance based on
1162
00:57:52,240 --> 00:57:59,200
algorithmic predictions.
1163
00:57:55,520 --> 00:58:01,599
Joe Lawndale, Palunteer co-founder, had
1164
00:57:59,200 --> 00:58:03,200
made a personal investment in Cambridge
1165
00:58:01,599 --> 00:58:05,599
Analytica.
1166
00:58:03,200 --> 00:58:08,000
Multiple Palunteer employees on their
1167
00:58:05,599 --> 00:58:12,520
own time helped Cambridge Analytica
1168
00:58:08,000 --> 00:58:12,520
build data integration models.
1169
00:58:12,640 --> 00:58:17,680
Both companies use similar approaches to
1170
00:58:15,359 --> 00:58:19,200
data harvesting and psychological
1171
00:58:17,680 --> 00:58:21,119
profiling.
1172
00:58:19,200 --> 00:58:23,920
When the connection was exposed by
1173
00:58:21,119 --> 00:58:26,960
journalists, Palanteer claimed there was
1174
00:58:23,920 --> 00:58:30,319
no institutional relationship, just
1175
00:58:26,960 --> 00:58:32,559
coincidental personal connections.
1176
00:58:30,319 --> 00:58:36,720
But the damage to Palanteer's reputation
1177
00:58:32,559 --> 00:58:39,040
was done. The had built the panopticon.
1178
00:58:36,720 --> 00:58:41,520
The allseeing eye of corporate and
1179
00:58:39,040 --> 00:58:44,960
government surveillance.
1180
00:58:41,520 --> 00:58:48,160
September the 30th, 2020.
1181
00:58:44,960 --> 00:58:50,079
After 17 years as a private company, one
1182
00:58:48,160 --> 00:58:52,799
of the longest periods of private
1183
00:58:50,079 --> 00:58:55,760
operation for any major tech company,
1184
00:58:52,799 --> 00:58:58,799
Palanteer finally goes public through a
1185
00:58:55,760 --> 00:59:01,680
direct listing.
1186
00:58:58,799 --> 00:59:04,640
They went public at $10 per share and
1187
00:59:01,680 --> 00:59:08,240
their market capitalization at market
1188
00:59:04,640 --> 00:59:11,520
open was $16 billion.
1189
00:59:08,240 --> 00:59:13,440
By the first day, shares were down 5%.
1190
00:59:11,520 --> 00:59:14,960
The stock was initially a
1191
00:59:13,440 --> 00:59:17,040
disappointment.
1192
00:59:14,960 --> 00:59:19,040
Investors were skeptical of the business
1193
00:59:17,040 --> 00:59:21,680
model, worried about customer
1194
00:59:19,040 --> 00:59:23,839
concentration, concerned about the
1195
00:59:21,680 --> 00:59:26,880
controversy.
1196
00:59:23,839 --> 00:59:29,920
But then COVID 19 created massive new
1197
00:59:26,880 --> 00:59:33,839
demand for Palanteer's capabilities.
1198
00:59:29,920 --> 00:59:36,240
2020 to 2021, Palanteer wins enormous
1199
00:59:33,839 --> 00:59:39,440
pandemic related government contracts
1200
00:59:36,240 --> 00:59:41,520
with governments across the world. The
1201
00:59:39,440 --> 00:59:44,799
pandemic proved that governments needed
1202
00:59:41,520 --> 00:59:47,839
Palanteer and the market responded.
1203
00:59:44,799 --> 00:59:53,760
By late 2021, Palanteer stock had
1204
00:59:47,839 --> 00:59:56,240
exploded. $29 per share at 190% gain
1205
00:59:53,760 --> 00:59:57,920
from the direct listing price. Market
1206
00:59:56,240 --> 01:00:01,480
capitalization
1207
00:59:57,920 --> 01:00:01,480
$60 billion.
1208
01:00:02,640 --> 01:00:09,599
Peter Theal stake approximately 7%
1209
01:00:06,240 --> 01:00:12,400
ownership worth 4.2 2 billion at the
1210
01:00:09,599 --> 01:00:14,799
peak. 2022,
1211
01:00:12,400 --> 01:00:18,240
the tech crash hits Palanteer brutally
1212
01:00:14,799 --> 01:00:22,400
hard. Stock prices crash to $6 per
1213
01:00:18,240 --> 01:00:26,000
share, down 8% from the peak. Market cap
1214
01:00:22,400 --> 01:00:28,079
collapses to $13 billion.
1215
01:00:26,000 --> 01:00:34,000
The paper wealth from Palanteer
1216
01:00:28,079 --> 01:00:37,280
evaporates. Billions gone. 2023 to 2024,
1217
01:00:34,000 --> 01:00:39,680
the AI boom creates new opportunity.
1218
01:00:37,280 --> 01:00:42,640
Palanteer markets itself as the AI
1219
01:00:39,680 --> 01:00:45,599
platform for governments and enterprises
1220
01:00:42,640 --> 01:00:50,319
and they get major new contract wins.
1221
01:00:45,599 --> 01:00:52,480
The US Army invested $463 million for AI
1222
01:00:50,319 --> 01:00:55,359
powered battlefield analytics and
1223
01:00:52,480 --> 01:00:57,920
decision support systems.
1224
01:00:55,359 --> 01:01:02,640
Palanteer stock recovered
1225
01:00:57,920 --> 01:01:05,200
25 to 30 per share by 2024.
1226
01:01:02,640 --> 01:01:08,160
As of 2024, Peter Theel's current
1227
01:01:05,200 --> 01:01:10,640
Palanteer holdings are approximately 7%
1228
01:01:08,160 --> 01:01:14,799
of all shares with a current value
1229
01:01:10,640 --> 01:01:19,319
ranging from 3.8 to $4.5 billion
1230
01:01:14,799 --> 01:01:19,319
depending on daily stock price.
1231
01:01:20,960 --> 01:01:27,520
This makes Palunteer Field's single
1232
01:01:24,079 --> 01:01:30,799
largest source of personal wealth. In
1233
01:01:27,520 --> 01:01:32,880
2024, Palanteer's financial performance
1234
01:01:30,799 --> 01:01:35,680
was divided between government and
1235
01:01:32,880 --> 01:01:40,559
commercial revenue. The company's net
1236
01:01:35,680 --> 01:01:42,319
income was $2.5 billion annually. And as
1237
01:01:40,559 --> 01:01:44,240
big as the number is, this might
1238
01:01:42,319 --> 01:01:46,720
represent a future problem for the
1239
01:01:44,240 --> 01:01:48,880
company. If government budget cuts
1240
01:01:46,720 --> 01:01:50,400
happen, Palanteer is extremely
1241
01:01:48,880 --> 01:01:52,640
vulnerable.
1242
01:01:50,400 --> 01:01:56,240
Their entire business model depends on
1243
01:01:52,640 --> 01:01:59,440
continued government spending. Here is
1244
01:01:56,240 --> 01:02:01,440
Peter Theal's fundamental contradiction.
1245
01:01:59,440 --> 01:02:03,359
The paradox at the heart of everything
1246
01:02:01,440 --> 01:02:05,680
he has built. He claims to be a
1247
01:02:03,359 --> 01:02:08,880
libertarian who values individual
1248
01:02:05,680 --> 01:02:10,559
freedom above all else. A man who
1249
01:02:08,880 --> 01:02:12,960
believes government power should be
1250
01:02:10,559 --> 01:02:16,160
minimal. A man who wrote that freedom
1251
01:02:12,960 --> 01:02:18,720
and democracy are incompatible.
1252
01:02:16,160 --> 01:02:21,440
Yet, he built the most powerful private
1253
01:02:18,720 --> 01:02:24,160
surveillance technology company in human
1254
01:02:21,440 --> 01:02:25,920
history. A company that gives
1255
01:02:24,160 --> 01:02:29,359
governments and corporations
1256
01:02:25,920 --> 01:02:32,640
unprecedented ability to monitor, track,
1257
01:02:29,359 --> 01:02:35,119
predict, and control human behavior.
1258
01:02:32,640 --> 01:02:38,000
Palunteers technical capabilities
1259
01:02:35,119 --> 01:02:40,400
include realtime tracking of individuals
1260
01:02:38,000 --> 01:02:43,400
across multiple data sources and
1261
01:02:40,400 --> 01:02:43,400
databases.
1262
01:02:44,000 --> 01:02:48,720
Predictive behavioral modeling that
1263
01:02:46,640 --> 01:02:51,920
forecasts what people will do before
1264
01:02:48,720 --> 01:02:54,319
they do it. Network analysis that maps
1265
01:02:51,920 --> 01:02:57,760
every person you have ever contacted
1266
01:02:54,319 --> 01:03:00,480
through any medium. Complete integration
1267
01:02:57,760 --> 01:03:04,079
of financial records, communication
1268
01:03:00,480 --> 01:03:07,280
metadata, location history, and social
1269
01:03:04,079 --> 01:03:09,200
relationship data into a single unified
1270
01:03:07,280 --> 01:03:11,760
profile.
1271
01:03:09,200 --> 01:03:14,079
Field's defense of this contradiction
1272
01:03:11,760 --> 01:03:18,319
was explaining that the alternative to
1273
01:03:14,079 --> 01:03:20,960
Palanteer is not no surveillance.
1274
01:03:18,319 --> 01:03:23,119
The alternative is worse surveillance
1275
01:03:20,960 --> 01:03:26,160
performed by incompetent government
1276
01:03:23,119 --> 01:03:30,200
bureaucrats using decades old technology
1277
01:03:26,160 --> 01:03:30,200
that does not work properly.
1278
01:03:31,760 --> 01:03:38,240
The critics's response was obvious. They
1279
01:03:34,720 --> 01:03:42,319
told Theo he had built the panopticon,
1280
01:03:38,240 --> 01:03:44,480
the architecture of total surveillance,
1281
01:03:42,319 --> 01:03:46,799
a system allowing governments around the
1282
01:03:44,480 --> 01:03:49,680
world to use their citizens information
1283
01:03:46,799 --> 01:03:52,240
to control them, not a system to protect
1284
01:03:49,680 --> 01:03:54,559
them, said the critics.
1285
01:03:52,240 --> 01:03:57,359
Palanteer now operates in dozens of
1286
01:03:54,559 --> 01:04:00,240
countries worldwide. The United States,
1287
01:03:57,359 --> 01:04:03,119
the United Kingdom, Germany, France,
1288
01:04:00,240 --> 01:04:05,280
Australia, and even Japan.
1289
01:04:03,119 --> 01:04:08,319
The company has some controversial
1290
01:04:05,280 --> 01:04:11,280
international clients, some confirmed,
1291
01:04:08,319 --> 01:04:14,880
some alleged, but the total estimated
1292
01:04:11,280 --> 01:04:19,280
value of all global contracts lifetime,
1293
01:04:14,880 --> 01:04:22,160
over $10 billion in contract value.
1294
01:04:19,280 --> 01:04:25,200
Palanteer is Peter Theel's most
1295
01:04:22,160 --> 01:04:28,319
important company. Not because of its
1296
01:04:25,200 --> 01:04:30,720
valuation, though that is substantial.
1297
01:04:28,319 --> 01:04:34,400
Not because of its revenue, though that
1298
01:04:30,720 --> 01:04:36,720
is significant. Palanteer is important
1299
01:04:34,400 --> 01:04:39,680
because it reveals the truth about
1300
01:04:36,720 --> 01:04:42,319
Theo's worldview. It is the bridge
1301
01:04:39,680 --> 01:04:46,000
between his libertarian philosophy and
1302
01:04:42,319 --> 01:04:49,039
his authoritarian reality. He claims to
1303
01:04:46,000 --> 01:04:51,680
want freedom from government control.
1304
01:04:49,039 --> 01:04:53,920
But Palanteer gives governments
1305
01:04:51,680 --> 01:04:56,480
unprecedented control over their
1306
01:04:53,920 --> 01:04:58,720
citizens. The resolution of this
1307
01:04:56,480 --> 01:05:01,520
apparent contradiction.
1308
01:04:58,720 --> 01:05:04,720
Peter the believes in freedom for the
1309
01:05:01,520 --> 01:05:06,960
elite and surveillance for everyone
1310
01:05:04,720 --> 01:05:09,280
else.
1311
01:05:06,960 --> 01:05:12,480
In his vision of the world, there are
1312
01:05:09,280 --> 01:05:14,720
rulers and there are the ruled. There
1313
01:05:12,480 --> 01:05:17,359
are the people who make the decisions
1314
01:05:14,720 --> 01:05:19,920
and the people who are managed.
1315
01:05:17,359 --> 01:05:22,160
Palanteer is the enforcement mechanism
1316
01:05:19,920 --> 01:05:24,720
for that hierarchy.
1317
01:05:22,160 --> 01:05:27,680
The technology that ensures the rulers
1318
01:05:24,720 --> 01:05:30,240
can see everything. the system that
1319
01:05:27,680 --> 01:05:33,680
makes resistance impossible because
1320
01:05:30,240 --> 01:05:36,720
privacy no longer exists. And Peter
1321
01:05:33,680 --> 01:05:39,680
Theal sits at the center of that eye,
1322
01:05:36,720 --> 01:05:45,079
watching the world, seeing everything.
1323
01:05:39,680 --> 01:05:45,079
The architect of the surveillance state.
1324
01:05:47,520 --> 01:05:53,359
In 2016, Peter Theel made an investment
1325
01:05:51,280 --> 01:05:56,640
that every other major technology
1326
01:05:53,359 --> 01:05:59,039
investor avoided.
1327
01:05:56,640 --> 01:06:01,200
While his peers in Silicon Valley were
1328
01:05:59,039 --> 01:06:04,960
contributing millions to the opposing
1329
01:06:01,200 --> 01:06:07,680
campaign, Theel wrote a check for $1.25
1330
01:06:04,960 --> 01:06:09,200
million to Donald Trump's presidential
1331
01:06:07,680 --> 01:06:12,240
campaign.
1332
01:06:09,200 --> 01:06:15,680
This was not ideology. This was
1333
01:06:12,240 --> 01:06:18,720
portfolio diversification.
1334
01:06:15,680 --> 01:06:23,359
The has always invested in contrarian
1335
01:06:18,720 --> 01:06:26,160
positions. When everyone zigs, he zags.
1336
01:06:23,359 --> 01:06:29,119
When consensus forms in one direction,
1337
01:06:26,160 --> 01:06:32,960
he looks for asymmetric opportunities in
1338
01:06:29,119 --> 01:06:35,520
the other. The 2006 donation gave him
1339
01:06:32,960 --> 01:06:38,799
something money usually cannot buy in
1340
01:06:35,520 --> 01:06:42,160
Silicon Valley. Direct access to
1341
01:06:38,799 --> 01:06:45,760
executive power. The return on that
1342
01:06:42,160 --> 01:06:48,319
$1.25 $25 million investment,
1343
01:06:45,760 --> 01:06:51,760
a seat on the presidential transition
1344
01:06:48,319 --> 01:06:54,960
team, input on federal technology
1345
01:06:51,760 --> 01:06:57,760
policy, direct communication channels to
1346
01:06:54,960 --> 01:07:01,280
the White House, credibility as a
1347
01:06:57,760 --> 01:07:03,920
Washington power broker,
1348
01:07:01,280 --> 01:07:05,680
and most measurably, Palanteer's
1349
01:07:03,920 --> 01:07:09,200
government contracts increased
1350
01:07:05,680 --> 01:07:11,440
substantially during this period.
1351
01:07:09,200 --> 01:07:14,720
But feels most significant political
1352
01:07:11,440 --> 01:07:16,240
investments came in the 2022 midterm
1353
01:07:14,720 --> 01:07:20,000
elections.
1354
01:07:16,240 --> 01:07:23,520
Two candidates, both former employees,
1355
01:07:20,000 --> 01:07:25,440
both running for United States Senate.
1356
01:07:23,520 --> 01:07:28,319
The financial commitment was
1357
01:07:25,440 --> 01:07:30,799
unprecedented in scale.
1358
01:07:28,319 --> 01:07:32,880
Vance had worked at Theel's venture
1359
01:07:30,799 --> 01:07:35,920
capital firm before writing his
1360
01:07:32,880 --> 01:07:38,000
best-selling memoir. Fields total
1361
01:07:35,920 --> 01:07:42,960
financial commitment
1362
01:07:38,000 --> 01:07:45,280
direct campaign contribution $15 million
1363
01:07:42,960 --> 01:07:48,880
super PAC expenditures
1364
01:07:45,280 --> 01:07:50,640
$5 million combined investment $20
1365
01:07:48,880 --> 01:07:53,839
million.
1366
01:07:50,640 --> 01:07:56,319
This set a record as the largest single
1367
01:07:53,839 --> 01:07:59,760
donor contribution to an individual
1368
01:07:56,319 --> 01:08:02,960
Senate campaign in American history. The
1369
01:07:59,760 --> 01:08:06,559
outcome Vance won by six percentage
1370
01:08:02,960 --> 01:08:09,359
points. Masters had worked directly for
1371
01:08:06,559 --> 01:08:11,359
Theel as chief operating officer at
1372
01:08:09,359 --> 01:08:13,359
Theel Capital.
1373
01:08:11,359 --> 01:08:15,680
Theel's financial commitment to his
1374
01:08:13,359 --> 01:08:19,600
campaign was a combined investment of
1375
01:08:15,680 --> 01:08:22,640
$20 million. But unlike Vance, Masters
1376
01:08:19,600 --> 01:08:26,239
lost by 5 percentage points.
1377
01:08:22,640 --> 01:08:30,159
The total 2022 midterm investment was
1378
01:08:26,239 --> 01:08:32,000
over $40 million in two Senate races.
1379
01:08:30,159 --> 01:08:34,239
two different candidates that would have
1380
01:08:32,000 --> 01:08:37,600
allowed him to be in direct touch with
1381
01:08:34,239 --> 01:08:39,920
power at different chambers and stages.
1382
01:08:37,600 --> 01:08:42,319
For context, the average competitive
1383
01:08:39,920 --> 01:08:46,080
Senate race costs approximately $10
1384
01:08:42,319 --> 01:08:50,759
million total. Peter Theal invested four
1385
01:08:46,080 --> 01:08:50,759
times that amount on two races.
1386
01:08:51,359 --> 01:08:58,159
It's July 2024. JD Vance is selected as
1387
01:08:55,920 --> 01:09:01,040
the Republican vice presidential
1388
01:08:58,159 --> 01:09:03,600
candidate. From a pure investment
1389
01:09:01,040 --> 01:09:06,000
analysis perspective, this transforms
1390
01:09:03,600 --> 01:09:08,719
the return profile and Theel's $20
1391
01:09:06,000 --> 01:09:11,120
million commitment. He has considered
1392
01:09:08,719 --> 01:09:15,279
the potential financial implications if
1393
01:09:11,120 --> 01:09:17,839
this ticket wins and he gets access to
1394
01:09:15,279 --> 01:09:21,199
executive branch decisionmaking for 8
1395
01:09:17,839 --> 01:09:24,640
years. influence over federal contract
1396
01:09:21,199 --> 01:09:27,600
allocation across multiple agencies.
1397
01:09:24,640 --> 01:09:31,920
Input on technology regulation affecting
1398
01:09:27,600 --> 01:09:34,159
the portfolio companies.
1399
01:09:31,920 --> 01:09:36,239
If we consider what's the estimated
1400
01:09:34,159 --> 01:09:39,679
return on investment for Palanteer's
1401
01:09:36,239 --> 01:09:41,839
government business, what we see is
1402
01:09:39,679 --> 01:09:44,640
current annual government revenue of
1403
01:09:41,839 --> 01:09:47,359
$1.5 billion.
1404
01:09:44,640 --> 01:09:50,640
potential additional contract value over
1405
01:09:47,359 --> 01:09:53,640
eight years conservatively 5 to10
1406
01:09:50,640 --> 01:09:53,640
billion
1407
01:09:53,679 --> 01:10:00,320
and other defense companies in the
1408
01:09:56,800 --> 01:10:02,080
network potential 3 to5 billion in
1409
01:10:00,320 --> 01:10:04,480
contracts
1410
01:10:02,080 --> 01:10:08,080
regulatory treatment of cryptocurrency
1411
01:10:04,480 --> 01:10:11,080
holdings value potentially in tens of
1412
01:10:08,080 --> 01:10:11,080
billions.
1413
01:10:12,719 --> 01:10:18,800
The theoretical return of those 20
1414
01:10:15,280 --> 01:10:22,159
million invested is potentially 15 to 20
1415
01:10:18,800 --> 01:10:26,159
billion captured across the portfolio.
1416
01:10:22,159 --> 01:10:29,920
That represents a potential of 750 to
1417
01:10:26,159 --> 01:10:32,159
1,000 times return. By comparison,
1418
01:10:29,920 --> 01:10:34,480
Theel's Facebook investment returned
1419
01:10:32,159 --> 01:10:36,960
2,000 times.
1420
01:10:34,480 --> 01:10:42,320
To sum it up, the complete political
1421
01:10:36,960 --> 01:10:44,640
spending of the from 2016 to 2022 is 70
1422
01:10:42,320 --> 01:10:47,600
to $80 million.
1423
01:10:44,640 --> 01:10:50,960
For context, Amazon spends 20 million
1424
01:10:47,600 --> 01:10:53,679
annually on lobbying. Meta spends 20
1425
01:10:50,960 --> 01:10:57,360
million annual on lobbying. Google
1426
01:10:53,679 --> 01:11:00,000
spends 12 million annually on lobbying.
1427
01:10:57,360 --> 01:11:02,960
Field's approach is different. Rather
1428
01:11:00,000 --> 01:11:05,120
than ongoing lobbying expenditures, he
1429
01:11:02,960 --> 01:11:07,600
makes concentrated investments in
1430
01:11:05,120 --> 01:11:13,159
individual candidates who potentially
1431
01:11:07,600 --> 01:11:13,159
provide access for years or decades.
1432
01:11:13,199 --> 01:11:18,239
It is the venture capital model applied
1433
01:11:15,679 --> 01:11:21,199
to politics. Make early stage
1434
01:11:18,239 --> 01:11:23,679
investments in promising candidates.
1435
01:11:21,199 --> 01:11:27,040
Provide sufficient capital to help them
1436
01:11:23,679 --> 01:11:29,520
win. Capture value through long-term
1437
01:11:27,040 --> 01:11:32,159
relationships and access.
1438
01:11:29,520 --> 01:11:34,960
The candidates Theel has supported now
1439
01:11:32,159 --> 01:11:37,520
serve on key committees.
1440
01:11:34,960 --> 01:11:39,040
Technology regulation, defense
1441
01:11:37,520 --> 01:11:41,920
appropriations,
1442
01:11:39,040 --> 01:11:44,719
intelligence oversight, banking and
1443
01:11:41,920 --> 01:11:46,960
financial services.
1444
01:11:44,719 --> 01:11:49,440
Precisely the committees that oversee
1445
01:11:46,960 --> 01:11:51,840
industries where the has billions
1446
01:11:49,440 --> 01:11:54,640
invested and where he can use some
1447
01:11:51,840 --> 01:11:57,280
privileged information.
1448
01:11:54,640 --> 01:11:58,719
Is political investment a good use of
1449
01:11:57,280 --> 01:12:02,000
capital?
1450
01:11:58,719 --> 01:12:05,199
The mathematics suggest yes
1451
01:12:02,000 --> 01:12:08,719
70 to 80 million represents less than 1%
1452
01:12:05,199 --> 01:12:10,960
of the's net worth. The potential return
1453
01:12:08,719 --> 01:12:13,840
if access translate to favorable
1454
01:12:10,960 --> 01:12:17,360
treatment for portfolio companies could
1455
01:12:13,840 --> 01:12:19,760
be worth billions. Even with a 50%
1456
01:12:17,360 --> 01:12:22,640
success rate, the expected value is
1457
01:12:19,760 --> 01:12:25,760
positive by orders of magnitude.
1458
01:12:22,640 --> 01:12:29,760
Investment 70 to 80 million over 8
1459
01:12:25,760 --> 01:12:32,480
years. Potential value captured 15 to 30
1460
01:12:29,760 --> 01:12:36,159
billion across portfolio.
1461
01:12:32,480 --> 01:12:39,520
Expected return 200 to 400 times
1462
01:12:36,159 --> 01:12:42,080
invested capital
1463
01:12:39,520 --> 01:12:45,280
that rivals the best venture capital
1464
01:12:42,080 --> 01:12:48,560
returns in history. Peter Theel is not
1465
01:12:45,280 --> 01:12:51,560
playing politics. He is optimizing his
1466
01:12:48,560 --> 01:12:51,560
portfolio.
1467
01:12:52,880 --> 01:12:58,880
Chapter 7. The final exit.
1468
01:12:56,719 --> 01:13:01,679
Peter Theal has spent his life betting
1469
01:12:58,880 --> 01:13:04,159
on the future, building it, funding it,
1470
01:13:01,679 --> 01:13:08,159
accelerating it. But there is one
1471
01:13:04,159 --> 01:13:12,880
frontier he refuses to accept as fixed.
1472
01:13:08,159 --> 01:13:15,440
Death. To him, mortality is not destiny.
1473
01:13:12,880 --> 01:13:17,760
It is an engineering problem waiting for
1474
01:13:15,440 --> 01:13:19,920
a breakthrough. Unlike every other
1475
01:13:17,760 --> 01:13:23,120
system he has challenged, he believes
1476
01:13:19,920 --> 01:13:25,760
this one too can be redesigned.
1477
01:13:23,120 --> 01:13:28,880
While others plan for retirement, Theel
1478
01:13:25,760 --> 01:13:31,520
funds longevity labs. While governments
1479
01:13:28,880 --> 01:13:33,040
plan for decades, he thinks in
1480
01:13:31,520 --> 01:13:35,199
centuries.
1481
01:13:33,040 --> 01:13:37,760
If time is the ultimate constraint on
1482
01:13:35,199 --> 01:13:40,640
power, then extending life is the
1483
01:13:37,760 --> 01:13:43,760
ultimate leverage. At the edge of the
1484
01:13:40,640 --> 01:13:46,560
world, he built a refuge. Far from
1485
01:13:43,760 --> 01:13:51,040
political centers, far from social
1486
01:13:46,560 --> 01:13:53,360
unrest, close only to time. In Silicon
1487
01:13:51,040 --> 01:13:56,960
Valley, there is a dark joke shared
1488
01:13:53,360 --> 01:13:59,120
quietly among founders and investors.
1489
01:13:56,960 --> 01:14:01,679
How many billionaires does it take to
1490
01:13:59,120 --> 01:14:04,719
buy a country?
1491
01:14:01,679 --> 01:14:08,040
Just one, if he is smart enough to get
1492
01:14:04,719 --> 01:14:08,040
there first.
1493
01:14:08,480 --> 01:14:13,120
He invested in digital currencies that
1494
01:14:10,719 --> 01:14:15,120
governments cannot print. In
1495
01:14:13,120 --> 01:14:18,000
surveillance systems that see what
1496
01:14:15,120 --> 01:14:20,480
others cannot. In political candidates
1497
01:14:18,000 --> 01:14:23,120
who might shape the rules. In
1498
01:14:20,480 --> 01:14:24,640
technologies that might outlive biology
1499
01:14:23,120 --> 01:14:30,440
itself.
1500
01:14:24,640 --> 01:14:30,440
Not to save the world, to outlast it.
1501
01:14:32,400 --> 01:14:37,920
What began as a contingency plan for a
1502
01:14:35,040 --> 01:14:40,800
few has become an unspoken strategy
1503
01:14:37,920 --> 01:14:43,120
among the ultra wealthy.
1504
01:14:40,800 --> 01:14:45,679
When the New Zealand citizenship story
1505
01:14:43,120 --> 01:14:49,280
became public, one of Theo's closest
1506
01:14:45,679 --> 01:14:52,080
peers, Sam Alman, put it bluntly.
1507
01:14:49,280 --> 01:14:55,040
If things go really wrong, I'm flying to
1508
01:14:52,080 --> 01:14:58,239
Peter's place.
1509
01:14:55,040 --> 01:15:01,440
Some men try to make history. Peter
1510
01:14:58,239 --> 01:15:04,239
Theel is trying to escape it.
1511
01:15:01,440 --> 01:15:09,560
And if the future breaks, he intends to
1512
01:15:04,239 --> 01:15:09,560
be standing somewhere it cannot reach.
1513
01:16:35,360 --> 01:16:40,400
Most people see this and think culture.
1514
01:16:38,320 --> 01:16:42,800
They see a charming eco-friendly
1515
01:16:40,400 --> 01:16:45,600
tradition.
1516
01:16:42,800 --> 01:16:48,000
But look closer. This isn't just people
1517
01:16:45,600 --> 01:16:50,560
liking to pedal. What you were watching
1518
01:16:48,000 --> 01:16:52,400
is a highfrequency, low friction
1519
01:16:50,560 --> 01:16:54,239
economic machine.
1520
01:16:52,400 --> 01:16:56,239
>> Ultimately, private car ownership is
1521
01:16:54,239 --> 01:16:57,760
going to become obsolete. Cities are
1522
01:16:56,239 --> 01:16:59,440
building for pedestrians. They're
1523
01:16:57,760 --> 01:17:02,960
building for cycling. They're building
1524
01:16:59,440 --> 01:17:05,600
for livability, not for cars.
1525
01:17:02,960 --> 01:17:09,480
>> The bike economy, the multi-billion
1526
01:17:05,600 --> 01:17:09,480
dollar system of Amsterdam.
1527
01:17:10,719 --> 01:17:17,520
In Amsterdam, the bicycle isn't a toy.
1528
01:17:14,159 --> 01:17:20,320
It is a critical urban infrastructure.
1529
01:17:17,520 --> 01:17:24,840
If this system failed today, the city's
1530
01:17:20,320 --> 01:17:24,840
economy would collapse tomorrow.
1531
01:17:24,960 --> 01:17:30,080
For decades, the world has viewed
1532
01:17:26,800 --> 01:17:33,280
Amsterdam through a romantic lens. But
1533
01:17:30,080 --> 01:17:35,840
cities don't run on vibes. They run on
1534
01:17:33,280 --> 01:17:37,760
systems. And when a system moves
1535
01:17:35,840 --> 01:17:40,719
hundreds of thousands of people every
1536
01:17:37,760 --> 01:17:44,000
single day, it stops being a choice and
1537
01:17:40,719 --> 01:17:46,800
starts demanding three things. space,
1538
01:17:44,000 --> 01:17:49,040
rules, and capital.
1539
01:17:46,800 --> 01:17:51,199
Research shows that the cycling system
1540
01:17:49,040 --> 01:17:55,040
contributes benefits equivalent to
1541
01:17:51,199 --> 01:17:58,320
roughly 3% of the Netherlands GDP. This
1542
01:17:55,040 --> 01:18:00,640
isn't just green energy. It's hard cash
1543
01:17:58,320 --> 01:18:03,199
saved in public health, reduced
1544
01:18:00,640 --> 01:18:06,000
absenteeism at work, and most
1545
01:18:03,199 --> 01:18:08,640
importantly, unlocked productivity.
1546
01:18:06,000 --> 01:18:10,960
Every person on a bike is a person who
1547
01:18:08,640 --> 01:18:13,920
isn't taking up 12 square meters of
1548
01:18:10,960 --> 01:18:16,880
public space with a car. That freed up
1549
01:18:13,920 --> 01:18:20,400
space allows for high value real estate,
1550
01:18:16,880 --> 01:18:25,400
commerce, and tourism. In economics, we
1551
01:18:20,400 --> 01:18:25,400
call this optimization of land use.
1552
01:18:26,880 --> 01:18:33,760
But success created a crisis. By the
1553
01:18:30,320 --> 01:18:35,840
2010s, Amsterdam had a clutter problem.
1554
01:18:33,760 --> 01:18:39,280
Thousands of bikes were choking the
1555
01:18:35,840 --> 01:18:41,280
streets. The solution, one of the most
1556
01:18:39,280 --> 01:18:44,400
expensive and daring engineering
1557
01:18:41,280 --> 01:18:47,679
projects in the city. They built a
1558
01:18:44,400 --> 01:18:49,840
cathedral for 7,000 bicycles
1559
01:18:47,679 --> 01:18:52,480
under the water.
1560
01:18:49,840 --> 01:18:54,480
It cost millions. From a traditional
1561
01:18:52,480 --> 01:18:57,920
linear perspective, spending that much
1562
01:18:54,480 --> 01:19:00,480
on free parking seems insane. But from a
1563
01:18:57,920 --> 01:19:02,800
circular economy perspective, a model
1564
01:19:00,480 --> 01:19:06,239
where Amsterdam is a global leader with
1565
01:19:02,800 --> 01:19:08,960
30.6% circularity rate, it was a
1566
01:19:06,239 --> 01:19:11,120
mandatory investment. As we see in the
1567
01:19:08,960 --> 01:19:13,679
latest urban governance reports,
1568
01:19:11,120 --> 01:19:16,320
planning isn't an option here. It's the
1569
01:19:13,679 --> 01:19:18,960
only way to exist.
1570
01:19:16,320 --> 01:19:22,000
In this documentary, we are going beyond
1571
01:19:18,960 --> 01:19:25,120
the postcard. We will travel back to
1572
01:19:22,000 --> 01:19:28,320
1965 to see why the first sharing
1573
01:19:25,120 --> 01:19:31,040
economy experiment failed. We will use
1574
01:19:28,320 --> 01:19:34,080
scientific GPS data to track the shadow
1575
01:19:31,040 --> 01:19:37,520
economy of the 80,000 bikes stolen every
1576
01:19:34,080 --> 01:19:39,600
year. And we will explore how Amsterdam
1577
01:19:37,520 --> 01:19:43,120
is using the bicycle to become the
1578
01:19:39,600 --> 01:19:46,560
world's first 100% circular city by
1579
01:19:43,120 --> 01:19:48,640
2050. This is the story of how a humble
1580
01:19:46,560 --> 01:19:51,360
machine with two wheels became the
1581
01:19:48,640 --> 01:19:54,360
backbone of a multi-billion dollar urban
1582
01:19:51,360 --> 01:19:54,360
miracle.
1583
01:19:57,120 --> 01:20:03,199
To understand why Amsterdam spends €85
1584
01:20:00,080 --> 01:20:05,679
million on underwater parking today, we
1585
01:20:03,199 --> 01:20:08,960
have to go back to a time when the city
1586
01:20:05,679 --> 01:20:11,960
almost lost its soul to the car, the
1587
01:20:08,960 --> 01:20:11,960
1960s.
1588
01:20:16,239 --> 01:20:22,560
As postwar prosperity grew, Amsterdam
1589
01:20:19,280 --> 01:20:24,719
was being choked by motor vehicles.
1590
01:20:22,560 --> 01:20:26,800
In response, a counterculture group
1591
01:20:24,719 --> 01:20:29,280
called the Provos launched what would
1592
01:20:26,800 --> 01:20:32,800
become the first bike sharing program in
1593
01:20:29,280 --> 01:20:35,199
history, the Vita Fieten Plan, or the
1594
01:20:32,800 --> 01:20:37,760
White Bike Plan.
1595
01:20:35,199 --> 01:20:39,280
Their proposal was radical and purely
1596
01:20:37,760 --> 01:20:42,320
idealistic.
1597
01:20:39,280 --> 01:20:44,800
Paint 20,000 bicycles white, leave them
1598
01:20:42,320 --> 01:20:48,800
unlocked across the city, and let anyone
1599
01:20:44,800 --> 01:20:51,920
use them for free. No keys, no coins, no
1600
01:20:48,800 --> 01:20:54,880
owners. They viewed mobility as a public
1601
01:20:51,920 --> 01:20:58,239
good, as essential and free as the air
1602
01:20:54,880 --> 01:21:02,239
we breathe. On paper, it was a circular
1603
01:20:58,239 --> 01:21:05,199
economy, avant leterra. In practice, it
1604
01:21:02,239 --> 01:21:08,239
was a disaster. Within days, the system
1605
01:21:05,199 --> 01:21:10,080
collapsed. Why? Because the provos
1606
01:21:08,239 --> 01:21:15,640
ignored a fundamental principle of
1607
01:21:10,080 --> 01:21:15,640
economics, the tragedy of the commons.
1608
01:21:33,520 --> 01:21:36,520
for
1609
01:21:51,120 --> 01:21:55,920
without ownership or registration.
1610
01:21:53,199 --> 01:21:58,880
Public property quickly became nobody's
1611
01:21:55,920 --> 01:22:01,280
property. In an unregulated system with
1612
01:21:58,880 --> 01:22:04,000
zero entry cost, the incentive to
1613
01:22:01,280 --> 01:22:06,800
maintain the asset disappears. Without
1614
01:22:04,000 --> 01:22:09,600
locks or registration, public property
1615
01:22:06,800 --> 01:22:11,600
quickly became nobody's property. The
1616
01:22:09,600 --> 01:22:14,400
police confiscated the bikes because
1617
01:22:11,600 --> 01:22:17,040
they invited theft and the citizens
1618
01:22:14,400 --> 01:22:19,040
driven by individual rationalism either
1619
01:22:17,040 --> 01:22:21,760
took them home or threw them into the
1620
01:22:19,040 --> 01:22:24,480
canals.
1621
01:22:21,760 --> 01:22:26,560
The lesson was harsh. You cannot have a
1622
01:22:24,480 --> 01:22:28,880
massive urban transit system based
1623
01:22:26,560 --> 01:22:32,520
solely on romanticism.
1624
01:22:28,880 --> 01:22:32,520
You need governance.
1625
01:22:34,239 --> 01:22:40,320
However, the white bikes planted a seed.
1626
01:22:37,280 --> 01:22:42,000
It shifted the economic debate. The city
1627
01:22:40,320 --> 01:22:44,239
realized that if they didn't want to
1628
01:22:42,000 --> 01:22:46,880
spend billions on highways like Los
1629
01:22:44,239 --> 01:22:49,600
Angeles or London, they had to invest in
1630
01:22:46,880 --> 01:22:52,000
a different kind of capital. Transition
1631
01:22:49,600 --> 01:22:55,040
requires not just technology but a
1632
01:22:52,000 --> 01:22:57,120
change in urban metabolism.
1633
01:22:55,040 --> 01:22:59,360
The failure of the white bikes taught
1634
01:22:57,120 --> 01:23:01,520
Amsterdam that the bicycle had to be
1635
01:22:59,360 --> 01:23:04,639
integrated into the formal economy of
1636
01:23:01,520 --> 01:23:08,320
the city, not as a rebel symbol, but as
1637
01:23:04,639 --> 01:23:10,320
a regulated, taxed and planned asset.
1638
01:23:08,320 --> 01:23:13,120
Today, the free spirit of the white
1639
01:23:10,320 --> 01:23:16,320
bikes only survives in one place, the
1640
01:23:13,120 --> 01:23:18,560
Hoga Veluve National Park. But in the
1641
01:23:16,320 --> 01:23:21,280
city, the white bike has been replaced
1642
01:23:18,560 --> 01:23:23,760
by a sophisticated capital incentive
1643
01:23:21,280 --> 01:23:26,080
model. We no longer trust in the
1644
01:23:23,760 --> 01:23:29,120
goodness of the user. We trust in
1645
01:23:26,080 --> 01:23:31,520
incentives. We move the tragedy of the
1646
01:23:29,120 --> 01:23:34,719
commons to a system of managed common
1647
01:23:31,520 --> 01:23:37,840
pool resources. In economics, success
1648
01:23:34,719 --> 01:23:40,719
can be as disruptive as failure. By the
1649
01:23:37,840 --> 01:23:43,280
late 2010s, Amsterdam was a victim of
1650
01:23:40,719 --> 01:23:45,760
its own efficiency. With nearly 1
1651
01:23:43,280 --> 01:23:48,560
million bicycles in the city, the urban
1652
01:23:45,760 --> 01:23:51,440
surface had reached a breaking point.
1653
01:23:48,560 --> 01:23:54,639
Every bridge, railing, and sidewalk was
1654
01:23:51,440 --> 01:23:57,199
occupied by idle metal.
1655
01:23:54,639 --> 01:24:00,320
This wasn't just an aesthetic grievance.
1656
01:23:57,199 --> 01:24:02,639
It was an economic bottleneck. Thousands
1657
01:24:00,320 --> 01:24:05,679
of parked bikes were clogging the city's
1658
01:24:02,639 --> 01:24:08,719
arteries, slowing down 200,000 daily
1659
01:24:05,679 --> 01:24:10,800
commuters at Central Station. In one of
1660
01:24:08,719 --> 01:24:13,440
the world's most expensive real estate
1661
01:24:10,800 --> 01:24:15,760
markets, free surface parking is a
1662
01:24:13,440 --> 01:24:18,320
luxury that a functional city cannot
1663
01:24:15,760 --> 01:24:21,679
afford. The opportunity cost of that
1664
01:24:18,320 --> 01:24:25,040
space was becoming too high. To solve
1665
01:24:21,679 --> 01:24:28,000
this, Amsterdam launched the entre, a
1666
01:24:25,040 --> 01:24:30,800
massive urban reconfiguration project.
1667
01:24:28,000 --> 01:24:34,000
The crown jewel, the open haven
1668
01:24:30,800 --> 01:24:37,520
underwater parking. Consider that
1669
01:24:34,000 --> 01:24:40,880
figure. Spending €60 million just to
1670
01:24:37,520 --> 01:24:43,280
store 7,000 bicycles underwater.
1671
01:24:40,880 --> 01:24:46,400
To a traditional accountant, this looks
1672
01:24:43,280 --> 01:24:49,040
like a massive sunk cost. But to an
1673
01:24:46,400 --> 01:24:52,800
urban economist, it's a master stroke of
1674
01:24:49,040 --> 01:24:55,120
asset management. By moving 7,000 bikes
1675
01:24:52,800 --> 01:24:57,840
beneath the water, the city performed
1676
01:24:55,120 --> 01:24:59,840
open heart surgery on its central hub.
1677
01:24:57,840 --> 01:25:03,120
They reclaimed the surface, restoring
1678
01:24:59,840 --> 01:25:05,520
the landscape to its 1900's aesthetic.
1679
01:25:03,120 --> 01:25:08,719
This isn't just about beauty. It's about
1680
01:25:05,520 --> 01:25:11,040
maximizing pedestrian flow. A station
1681
01:25:08,719 --> 01:25:13,600
that breathes and flows is a station
1682
01:25:11,040 --> 01:25:16,639
that generates higher economic value for
1683
01:25:13,600 --> 01:25:19,679
the surrounding businesses. However, an
1684
01:25:16,639 --> 01:25:21,520
85 million euro asset must be managed
1685
01:25:19,679 --> 01:25:24,480
like a high performance logistics
1686
01:25:21,520 --> 01:25:27,280
center. You cannot allow zombie bikes to
1687
01:25:24,480 --> 01:25:29,280
occupy these slots indefinitely.
1688
01:25:27,280 --> 01:25:32,880
This is where the incentive structure
1689
01:25:29,280 --> 01:25:36,239
comes into play. The primary goal isn't
1690
01:25:32,880 --> 01:25:38,800
profit, it's turnover. By offering the
1691
01:25:36,239 --> 01:25:42,159
first 24 hours for free, the city
1692
01:25:38,800 --> 01:25:44,639
subsidizes the daily workforce. But by
1693
01:25:42,159 --> 01:25:46,719
charging a daily fee thereafter, they
1694
01:25:44,639 --> 01:25:49,600
penalize long-term storage and
1695
01:25:46,719 --> 01:25:51,920
abandonment. Using advanced optical
1696
01:25:49,600 --> 01:25:54,639
sensors, the city monitors idle
1697
01:25:51,920 --> 01:25:57,840
inventory in real time, ensuring that
1698
01:25:54,639 --> 01:26:02,520
these 7,000 slots remain a liquid asset
1699
01:25:57,840 --> 01:26:02,520
for those who keep the economy moving.
1700
01:26:02,639 --> 01:26:07,800
Finally, we must consider the cost of
1701
01:26:04,800 --> 01:26:07,800
friction.
1702
01:26:37,280 --> 01:26:41,320
The last person, the last
1703
01:26:43,199 --> 01:26:48,080
In transport economics, every second
1704
01:26:45,520 --> 01:26:50,320
lost in a transfer is a loss in human
1705
01:26:48,080 --> 01:26:52,400
capital and productivity.
1706
01:26:50,320 --> 01:26:54,400
This underwater facility connects
1707
01:26:52,400 --> 01:26:55,920
directly to the metro and train
1708
01:26:54,400 --> 01:26:58,080
platforms.
1709
01:26:55,920 --> 01:27:00,480
The commuter can transition from their
1710
01:26:58,080 --> 01:27:03,440
bicycle to their train seat in less than
1711
01:27:00,480 --> 01:27:06,080
2 minutes, shielded from the elements.
1712
01:27:03,440 --> 01:27:08,320
This level of intermodel synergy is
1713
01:27:06,080 --> 01:27:12,000
exactly what makes Amsterdam's circular
1714
01:27:08,320 --> 01:27:14,960
economy, currently at a record 30.6%
1715
01:27:12,000 --> 01:27:19,560
circularity rate, a functional reality
1716
01:27:14,960 --> 01:27:19,560
rather than just a policy goal.
1717
01:27:42,320 --> 01:27:46,880
But this transition to a highly
1718
01:27:44,080 --> 01:27:49,120
regulated system created its own set of
1719
01:27:46,880 --> 01:27:52,000
problems. Because when you turn a
1720
01:27:49,120 --> 01:27:54,560
bicycle into a valuable economic asset,
1721
01:27:52,000 --> 01:27:58,000
you create something else, a black
1722
01:27:54,560 --> 01:28:00,880
market. In Amsterdam, data doesn't tell
1723
01:27:58,000 --> 01:28:03,679
the whole story. While police record
1724
01:28:00,880 --> 01:28:06,560
11,000 thefts a year, the reality is
1725
01:28:03,679 --> 01:28:09,440
closer to 80,000.
1726
01:28:06,560 --> 01:28:12,000
Most citizens don't report it. Cost of
1727
01:28:09,440 --> 01:28:14,320
time is higher than the bike's value.
1728
01:28:12,000 --> 01:28:16,480
This creates a massive shadow market
1729
01:28:14,320 --> 01:28:19,679
operating entirely outside the official
1730
01:28:16,480 --> 01:28:22,719
GDP. Forget the myth of international
1731
01:28:19,679 --> 01:28:26,480
bike smuggling rings.
1732
01:28:22,719 --> 01:28:28,639
A 2023 study tracking 100 bikes proved
1733
01:28:26,480 --> 01:28:31,760
that stolen assets rarely leave the
1734
01:28:28,639 --> 01:28:34,480
city. Instead, they feed a shadow
1735
01:28:31,760 --> 01:28:36,560
circular economy. Your stolen bike is
1736
01:28:34,480 --> 01:28:39,120
sold to a street dealer and then bought
1737
01:28:36,560 --> 01:28:43,920
by your neighbor. It's a localized,
1738
01:28:39,120 --> 01:28:46,080
untaxed, and illegal closed loop.
1739
01:28:43,920 --> 01:28:48,639
High theft risk creates a market
1740
01:28:46,080 --> 01:28:51,040
distortion. If you expect your bike to
1741
01:28:48,639 --> 01:28:54,800
be stolen within months, you don't buy
1742
01:28:51,040 --> 01:28:57,120
quality, you buy junk. This beta bike
1743
01:28:54,800 --> 01:28:59,840
equilibrium keeps the city's transport
1744
01:28:57,120 --> 01:29:01,760
fleet low quality and forces owners to
1745
01:28:59,840 --> 01:29:03,760
spend more on locks than the bikes
1746
01:29:01,760 --> 01:29:06,560
themselves.
1747
01:29:03,760 --> 01:29:08,880
These aren't victimless crimes. They are
1748
01:29:06,560 --> 01:29:12,800
negative externalities that drain city
1749
01:29:08,880 --> 01:29:15,760
resources. Amsterdam's answer, the Fiat
1750
01:29:12,800 --> 01:29:18,159
depot. Since the city couldn't stop the
1751
01:29:15,760 --> 01:29:21,280
theft, it decided to manage the orphaned
1752
01:29:18,159 --> 01:29:23,920
assets. Because in a circular city, even
1753
01:29:21,280 --> 01:29:25,520
a stolen bike is a resource that must be
1754
01:29:23,920 --> 01:29:28,520
managed to maintain the urban
1755
01:29:25,520 --> 01:29:28,520
metabolism.
1756
01:29:28,960 --> 01:29:33,199
In a city with more bicycles than
1757
01:29:31,040 --> 01:29:34,960
people, orphaned assets are an
1758
01:29:33,199 --> 01:29:36,880
inevitability.
1759
01:29:34,960 --> 01:29:39,840
Every year, thousands of bikes are
1760
01:29:36,880 --> 01:29:42,480
simply left behind. In economic terms,
1761
01:29:39,840 --> 01:29:45,199
this is dead capital. They occupy
1762
01:29:42,480 --> 01:29:47,120
valuable public space, provide zero
1763
01:29:45,199 --> 01:29:48,719
utility, and degrade the urban
1764
01:29:47,120 --> 01:29:50,639
landscape.
1765
01:29:48,719 --> 01:29:53,040
According to official Amsterdam
1766
01:29:50,639 --> 01:29:55,520
regulations, the city must intervene
1767
01:29:53,040 --> 01:29:57,760
when private property interferes with
1768
01:29:55,520 --> 01:30:00,320
public efficiency.
1769
01:29:57,760 --> 01:30:03,199
Whether is an improperly parked bike
1770
01:30:00,320 --> 01:30:05,360
blocking an emergency exit or a wreck
1771
01:30:03,199 --> 01:30:07,520
that is no longer functional, the
1772
01:30:05,360 --> 01:30:11,360
municipality acts as the ultimate
1773
01:30:07,520 --> 01:30:14,159
enforcer of spatial order.
1774
01:30:11,360 --> 01:30:17,920
All seized bicycles are transported to a
1775
01:30:14,159 --> 01:30:20,239
central facility, the FID depot. This is
1776
01:30:17,920 --> 01:30:23,360
a logistical powerhouse that manages the
1777
01:30:20,239 --> 01:30:26,000
city's lost capital. This isn't just a
1778
01:30:23,360 --> 01:30:29,679
pound. It's a sorting facility for the
1779
01:30:26,000 --> 01:30:31,679
city's metal metabolism, the retrieval.
1780
01:30:29,679 --> 01:30:35,840
Owners have around 6 weeks to claim
1781
01:30:31,679 --> 01:30:37,760
their bike for a fee, approximately €25.
1782
01:30:35,840 --> 01:30:40,159
This fee doesn't cover the full
1783
01:30:37,760 --> 01:30:43,360
operational cost, but it serves as a
1784
01:30:40,159 --> 01:30:45,760
user pays tax to discourage abandonment.
1785
01:30:43,360 --> 01:30:48,239
If your bicycle was removed from a city
1786
01:30:45,760 --> 01:30:50,239
parking facility, you will also pay
1787
01:30:48,239 --> 01:30:54,719
€33.75
1788
01:30:50,239 --> 01:30:58,000
parking cost. The sorting only about 25%
1789
01:30:54,719 --> 01:31:00,960
of bikes are ever reclaimed. The rest
1790
01:30:58,000 --> 01:31:02,960
they are classified as waste or asset.
1791
01:31:00,960 --> 01:31:07,600
Here is where the circular economy
1792
01:31:02,960 --> 01:31:10,480
strategy 2020 to 2025 becomes tangible.
1793
01:31:07,600 --> 01:31:14,719
Amsterdam aims to reduce the use of new
1794
01:31:10,480 --> 01:31:16,960
raw materials by 50% by 2030.
1795
01:31:14,719 --> 01:31:18,800
The Fiat's depot doesn't just scrap
1796
01:31:16,960 --> 01:31:21,679
everything.
1797
01:31:18,800 --> 01:31:23,840
Refurbishment. Bikes in decent condition
1798
01:31:21,679 --> 01:31:26,719
are sold to social enterprises or
1799
01:31:23,840 --> 01:31:29,360
secondhand shops. They are recirculated
1800
01:31:26,719 --> 01:31:31,440
into the economy at a low price point,
1801
01:31:29,360 --> 01:31:34,000
providing affordable mobility for
1802
01:31:31,440 --> 01:31:35,600
lowincome residents.
1803
01:31:34,000 --> 01:31:37,920
Education.
1804
01:31:35,600 --> 01:31:40,639
Many are used in vocational training
1805
01:31:37,920 --> 01:31:43,280
programs, turning junk, into a teaching
1806
01:31:40,639 --> 01:31:46,239
tool for future mechanics. Raw
1807
01:31:43,280 --> 01:31:49,120
materials, the unsalvageable ones, are
1808
01:31:46,239 --> 01:31:52,400
sold as highquality scrap metal, feeding
1809
01:31:49,120 --> 01:31:54,320
back into the industrial cycle.
1810
01:31:52,400 --> 01:31:57,760
What we see here is a complete life
1811
01:31:54,320 --> 01:31:59,520
cycle management of a transport mode.
1812
01:31:57,760 --> 01:32:01,520
The biggest challenge for circular
1813
01:31:59,520 --> 01:32:04,239
cities is the lack of effective
1814
01:32:01,520 --> 01:32:06,400
governance mechanisms. Amsterdam
1815
01:32:04,239 --> 01:32:08,960
succeeds because it treats the bicycle
1816
01:32:06,400 --> 01:32:11,280
as a public utility. From the
1817
01:32:08,960 --> 01:32:13,920
multi-million euro investment under the
1818
01:32:11,280 --> 01:32:15,679
water to the scrap metal in the harbor,
1819
01:32:13,920 --> 01:32:20,440
the city manages the entire
1820
01:32:15,679 --> 01:32:20,440
cradletograve cycle of the bicycle.
1821
01:32:22,239 --> 01:32:26,880
Amsterdam is no longer just building
1822
01:32:24,480 --> 01:32:30,480
bike lanes. It is building a new
1823
01:32:26,880 --> 01:32:33,760
economic DNA. The city has set a target
1824
01:32:30,480 --> 01:32:39,080
that many economists call impossible to
1825
01:32:33,760 --> 01:32:39,080
be 100% circular by 2050.
1826
01:32:40,000 --> 01:32:45,520
This means that by midentury, every gram
1827
01:32:42,800 --> 01:32:48,080
of steel in a bicycle and every stone in
1828
01:32:45,520 --> 01:32:49,440
a bridge must stay within the economic
1829
01:32:48,080 --> 01:32:52,239
loop.
1830
01:32:49,440 --> 01:32:55,440
The take, make, waste model will be
1831
01:32:52,239 --> 01:32:58,239
extinct. For Amsterdam, the bicycle is
1832
01:32:55,440 --> 01:33:01,199
the alpha product, the test case for how
1833
01:32:58,239 --> 01:33:04,480
a city can move, consume, and recycle
1834
01:33:01,199 --> 01:33:07,679
without depleting the planet's capital.
1835
01:33:04,480 --> 01:33:09,920
To reach 100% circularity, the concept
1836
01:33:07,679 --> 01:33:13,280
of private ownership is being challenged
1837
01:33:09,920 --> 01:33:15,920
by a more efficient model, product as a
1838
01:33:13,280 --> 01:33:17,920
service. You don't buy the bike, you
1839
01:33:15,920 --> 01:33:19,840
rent the mobility.
1840
01:33:17,920 --> 01:33:21,440
So we talk a lot about ownership as a
1841
01:33:19,840 --> 01:33:24,480
service, but it's this idea of, you
1842
01:33:21,440 --> 01:33:26,800
know, something as a service. So in our
1843
01:33:24,480 --> 01:33:28,800
case, bike as a service. It's all of the
1844
01:33:26,800 --> 01:33:30,480
benefits of ownership, but none of the
1845
01:33:28,800 --> 01:33:32,480
drawbacks. So none of having to deal
1846
01:33:30,480 --> 01:33:34,080
with the maintenance or or any of the
1847
01:33:32,480 --> 01:33:35,120
things that come with actually owning
1848
01:33:34,080 --> 01:33:37,440
something.
1849
01:33:35,120 --> 01:33:40,320
>> Economically, this aligns the incentives
1850
01:33:37,440 --> 01:33:43,120
of the producer and the consumer. If the
1851
01:33:40,320 --> 01:33:45,840
bike breaks, it's the company's problem,
1852
01:33:43,120 --> 01:33:47,600
not yours. by centralizing all of that
1853
01:33:45,840 --> 01:33:49,199
maintenance. Obviously, we cut cost
1854
01:33:47,600 --> 01:33:51,840
significantly. We cut waste
1855
01:33:49,199 --> 01:33:54,320
significantly. Um but for the individual
1856
01:33:51,840 --> 01:33:56,080
user, um they have nothing to worry
1857
01:33:54,320 --> 01:33:57,679
about. You know, as a subscriber, you
1858
01:33:56,080 --> 01:33:59,600
get all of your maintenance. So, we come
1859
01:33:57,679 --> 01:34:01,280
and do preventative maintenance. So,
1860
01:33:59,600 --> 01:34:03,679
first of all, that obviously reduced the
1861
01:34:01,280 --> 01:34:05,840
cost um overall, not so much to the end
1862
01:34:03,679 --> 01:34:07,600
user, but the cost of the business. Um
1863
01:34:05,840 --> 01:34:10,320
that prevents breakdowns and things like
1864
01:34:07,600 --> 01:34:13,600
that. But in the end, if you think about
1865
01:34:10,320 --> 01:34:14,960
um the cost of time, the cost of effort,
1866
01:34:13,600 --> 01:34:16,719
um maybe you don't even know how to
1867
01:34:14,960 --> 01:34:18,320
maintain your own bike, um having a
1868
01:34:16,719 --> 01:34:20,480
service that does all of that for you is
1869
01:34:18,320 --> 01:34:23,120
just a a matter of convenience.
1870
01:34:20,480 --> 01:34:26,080
>> This forces manufacturers to design for
1871
01:34:23,120 --> 01:34:29,040
durability and modularity, the core
1872
01:34:26,080 --> 01:34:31,360
pillars of this circular economy. When
1873
01:34:29,040 --> 01:34:33,360
the city manages the flow and private
1874
01:34:31,360 --> 01:34:36,320
companies manage the maintenance, the
1875
01:34:33,360 --> 01:34:38,320
shadow economy of theft we saw in act
1876
01:34:36,320 --> 01:34:40,239
three begins to shrink.
1877
01:34:38,320 --> 01:34:41,760
>> So if you subscribe to a bike from
1878
01:34:40,239 --> 01:34:43,440
Clover and your bike gets stolen, first
1879
01:34:41,760 --> 01:34:45,440
of all, we actually probably will notice
1880
01:34:43,440 --> 01:34:47,840
that it got stolen maybe even before you
1881
01:34:45,440 --> 01:34:50,080
did because we have GPS on all the
1882
01:34:47,840 --> 01:34:52,320
bikes. Um, but if it does get stolen,
1883
01:34:50,080 --> 01:34:53,760
you use our WhatsApp chat. You basically
1884
01:34:52,320 --> 01:34:55,520
send us a message and we come and bring
1885
01:34:53,760 --> 01:34:57,840
you a new bike immediately.
1886
01:34:55,520 --> 01:35:00,400
>> Why steal a bike that is tracked?
1887
01:34:57,840 --> 01:35:03,840
branded and has no resale value in a
1888
01:35:00,400 --> 01:35:05,600
subscription-based market.
1889
01:35:03,840 --> 01:35:08,159
So, what is the final return on
1890
01:35:05,600 --> 01:35:11,920
investment? Let's look at the triple
1891
01:35:08,159 --> 01:35:14,320
bottom line. Public health. By avoiding
1892
01:35:11,920 --> 01:35:16,960
11,000 deaths annually through active
1893
01:35:14,320 --> 01:35:20,400
transport, the Dutch economy saves 19
1894
01:35:16,960 --> 01:35:23,760
billion in health care costs.
1895
01:35:20,400 --> 01:35:26,400
Urban density. By utilizing underwater
1896
01:35:23,760 --> 01:35:28,719
parking and vertical depots, Amsterdam
1897
01:35:26,400 --> 01:35:31,040
maintains a population density that
1898
01:35:28,719 --> 01:35:34,800
would be impossible with cars, keeping
1899
01:35:31,040 --> 01:35:37,440
real estate productivity at peak levels.
1900
01:35:34,800 --> 01:35:40,000
Resource independence by reclaiming
1901
01:35:37,440 --> 01:35:42,719
metal from the Fiats depot, the city
1902
01:35:40,000 --> 01:35:45,440
insulates itself from global commodity
1903
01:35:42,719 --> 01:35:48,560
price shocks. This is a sustainable
1904
01:35:45,440 --> 01:35:50,800
urban metabolism. The city isn't just a
1905
01:35:48,560 --> 01:35:53,360
place where people live. It's a living
1906
01:35:50,800 --> 01:35:55,760
organism that processes resources with
1907
01:35:53,360 --> 01:35:58,000
maximum efficiency.
1908
01:35:55,760 --> 01:36:00,400
Amsterdam's success has sent a clear
1909
01:35:58,000 --> 01:36:02,639
message to the rest of the continent.
1910
01:36:00,400 --> 01:36:05,520
Spatial efficiency is the only way
1911
01:36:02,639 --> 01:36:07,920
forward for the modern metropolis.
1912
01:36:05,520 --> 01:36:09,920
Across Europe, the bicycle has moved
1913
01:36:07,920 --> 01:36:12,080
from being a leisure tool to a
1914
01:36:09,920 --> 01:36:14,320
cornerstone of urban recovery and
1915
01:36:12,080 --> 01:36:16,960
economic resilience.
1916
01:36:14,320 --> 01:36:20,000
In Paris, a city once defined by its
1917
01:36:16,960 --> 01:36:22,639
congestion, the plano is investing
1918
01:36:20,000 --> 01:36:26,080
hundreds of millions to become 100%
1919
01:36:22,639 --> 01:36:28,400
cyclable. In Barcelona, the super blocks
1920
01:36:26,080 --> 01:36:32,719
are reclaiming entire intersections from
1921
01:36:28,400 --> 01:36:34,400
cars to create humanentric lungs.
1922
01:36:32,719 --> 01:36:38,000
These aren't just environmental
1923
01:36:34,400 --> 01:36:40,400
projects, they are market corrections.
1924
01:36:38,000 --> 01:36:42,880
The cities are betting that a quieter,
1925
01:36:40,400 --> 01:36:45,280
cleaner, and more agile urban center
1926
01:36:42,880 --> 01:36:48,159
will attract more talent, more tourism,
1927
01:36:45,280 --> 01:36:50,800
and higher property values.
1928
01:36:48,159 --> 01:36:53,280
From the cycle superighways of London to
1929
01:36:50,800 --> 01:36:56,320
the industrial hubs of Germany, the
1930
01:36:53,280 --> 01:36:59,679
economic logic is consistent. Replacing
1931
01:36:56,320 --> 01:37:02,080
a 1 and 1/2 ton vehicle with a 15 kg
1932
01:36:59,679 --> 01:37:04,000
machine reduces the cost of maintenance
1933
01:37:02,080 --> 01:37:06,880
for the city and increases the
1934
01:37:04,000 --> 01:37:09,040
productivity of the citizen.
1935
01:37:06,880 --> 01:37:11,280
But while northern capitals have the
1936
01:37:09,040 --> 01:37:14,080
advantage of decades of infrastructure,
1937
01:37:11,280 --> 01:37:16,159
the real test is happening in the south.
1938
01:37:14,080 --> 01:37:18,400
In the Mediterranean, where the streets
1939
01:37:16,159 --> 01:37:20,639
is a social space and the sun is a
1940
01:37:18,400 --> 01:37:23,280
constant resource, a new leader is
1941
01:37:20,639 --> 01:37:25,760
emerging. A city that has used the
1942
01:37:23,280 --> 01:37:29,639
Amsterdam blueprint to transform itself
1943
01:37:25,760 --> 01:37:29,639
at record speed.
1944
01:37:41,600 --> 01:37:44,600
Fore!
1945
01:37:56,480 --> 01:37:59,480
Foreign! Foreign!
1946
01:38:32,719 --> 01:38:38,840
If Amsterdam is the blueprint, Valencia
1947
01:38:35,360 --> 01:38:38,840
is the laboratory.
1948
01:38:51,840 --> 01:38:55,159
Not the fact
1949
01:39:10,719 --> 01:39:12,880
transport.
1950
01:39:22,480 --> 01:39:26,719
in less than a decade. This
1951
01:39:24,239 --> 01:39:29,119
Mediterranean city has transitioned from
1952
01:39:26,719 --> 01:39:33,320
a carcentric capital to a global
1953
01:39:29,119 --> 01:39:33,320
reference in urban metabolism.
1954
01:39:54,960 --> 01:40:00,560
Valencia's transformation wasn't a
1955
01:39:57,280 --> 01:40:02,639
matter of vibes or romanticism. It was a
1956
01:40:00,560 --> 01:40:04,239
calculated investment in spatial
1957
01:40:02,639 --> 01:40:06,480
efficiency.
1958
01:40:04,239 --> 01:40:08,080
I think attracting top global talent
1959
01:40:06,480 --> 01:40:09,920
means that you need to have a vibrant,
1960
01:40:08,080 --> 01:40:11,920
livable city. And I think most young
1961
01:40:09,920 --> 01:40:14,080
people um particularly who are coming
1962
01:40:11,920 --> 01:40:16,159
into the workforce now are looking for
1963
01:40:14,080 --> 01:40:18,719
ways to get around a city that doesn't
1964
01:40:16,159 --> 01:40:21,280
rely on public transit. They don't want
1965
01:40:18,719 --> 01:40:23,199
to own a car um because car ownership is
1966
01:40:21,280 --> 01:40:25,520
a total burden. Having to find parking,
1967
01:40:23,199 --> 01:40:26,960
insurance, cost of the car, all of that.
1968
01:40:25,520 --> 01:40:29,199
So having this accessible
1969
01:40:26,960 --> 01:40:31,119
infrastructure, cycling infrastructure
1970
01:40:29,199 --> 01:40:33,040
specifically, and in a city like
1971
01:40:31,119 --> 01:40:35,040
Valencia that, you know, already has a
1972
01:40:33,040 --> 01:40:37,440
lot of reasons to attract top talent,
1973
01:40:35,040 --> 01:40:39,280
just makes it that much better. Um,
1974
01:40:37,440 --> 01:40:40,960
cycling is a preferred way to get around
1975
01:40:39,280 --> 01:40:42,960
in Valencia, we're number seven in the
1976
01:40:40,960 --> 01:40:44,960
world for cycling to work, for example.
1977
01:40:42,960 --> 01:40:47,199
So adding a layer of an easy
1978
01:40:44,960 --> 01:40:49,440
subscription ebike service to that just
1979
01:40:47,199 --> 01:40:51,360
again attracts even more um top talent
1980
01:40:49,440 --> 01:40:54,400
to the city.
1981
01:40:51,360 --> 01:40:56,480
By implementing the Anilo Cista, the
1982
01:40:54,400 --> 01:40:59,280
city has reclaimed high value public
1983
01:40:56,480 --> 01:41:01,600
space to boost local commerce and reduce
1984
01:40:59,280 --> 01:41:03,760
the toxic liability of the car.
1985
01:41:01,600 --> 01:41:05,520
>> It's important to remember that um often
1986
01:41:03,760 --> 01:41:07,280
times with cars, although they can fit
1987
01:41:05,520 --> 01:41:09,199
multiple people, most of the time it's
1988
01:41:07,280 --> 01:41:10,960
one person per one car. So when we're
1989
01:41:09,199 --> 01:41:12,880
asking about, you know, 10 bikes versus
1990
01:41:10,960 --> 01:41:15,119
one car, we're essentially saying 10
1991
01:41:12,880 --> 01:41:16,880
people versus one person. So we have a
1992
01:41:15,119 --> 01:41:18,400
10x multiplier on essentially everything
1993
01:41:16,880 --> 01:41:19,679
that's happening on that street. Whether
1994
01:41:18,400 --> 01:41:20,800
that be visits to the businesses,
1995
01:41:19,679 --> 01:41:22,480
whether that be transactions and
1996
01:41:20,800 --> 01:41:24,080
purchases, everything gets that 10x
1997
01:41:22,480 --> 01:41:24,960
multiplier and increases revenue for the
1998
01:41:24,080 --> 01:41:27,440
whole street.
1999
01:41:24,960 --> 01:41:29,760
>> In economics, this is the optimization
2000
01:41:27,440 --> 01:41:32,000
of land use. The same principle that
2001
01:41:29,760 --> 01:41:32,880
drove Amsterdam to build under its
2002
01:41:32,000 --> 01:41:34,639
canals.
2003
01:41:32,880 --> 01:41:37,520
>> If I'm cycling and I pass by, for
2004
01:41:34,639 --> 01:41:38,800
example, a bakery, go I smell that
2005
01:41:37,520 --> 01:41:40,080
bakery and I go, "Oh, you know what?
2006
01:41:38,800 --> 01:41:41,840
Maybe I'm going to stop in, try
2007
01:41:40,080 --> 01:41:43,360
something, one of those products." Um,
2008
01:41:41,840 --> 01:41:44,639
you know, essentially become a patron of
2009
01:41:43,360 --> 01:41:46,159
that business. Whereas if I'm passing by
2010
01:41:44,639 --> 01:41:48,719
in a car, there's no chance of that
2011
01:41:46,159 --> 01:41:50,400
happening. And the other benefit is um
2012
01:41:48,719 --> 01:41:52,239
car parking also has this sort of
2013
01:41:50,400 --> 01:41:54,000
psychological effect on the streets and
2014
01:41:52,239 --> 01:41:55,600
the people that live there. Car parking
2015
01:41:54,000 --> 01:41:57,679
makes the space feel a lot more closed
2016
01:41:55,600 --> 01:41:59,119
in and a lot more cramped than bike
2017
01:41:57,679 --> 01:42:00,320
parking, which keeps the space very nice
2018
01:41:59,119 --> 01:42:02,320
and open.
2019
01:42:00,320 --> 01:42:05,119
>> Emerging businesses are shifting the
2020
01:42:02,320 --> 01:42:07,360
market from ownership to usership.
2021
01:42:05,119 --> 01:42:08,960
>> You know, our customers, they depend on
2022
01:42:07,360 --> 01:42:11,440
their bikes as a reliable way to get
2023
01:42:08,960 --> 01:42:13,840
around. And so we use an ownership as a
2024
01:42:11,440 --> 01:42:16,159
service model. So instead of owning the
2025
01:42:13,840 --> 01:42:18,000
asset yourself, um you subscribe to it
2026
01:42:16,159 --> 01:42:19,679
from us. And we think that's what
2027
01:42:18,000 --> 01:42:21,520
customers need in terms of reliable
2028
01:42:19,679 --> 01:42:24,159
day-to-day transportation. If you look
2029
01:42:21,520 --> 01:42:26,880
at something like Lime or Valon BC, they
2030
01:42:24,159 --> 01:42:29,199
will have that idle asset problem. Um
2031
01:42:26,880 --> 01:42:31,040
and certainly ownership obviously the
2032
01:42:29,199 --> 01:42:33,440
same thing. But with us, you know,
2033
01:42:31,040 --> 01:42:35,360
handling maintenance, battery swapping,
2034
01:42:33,440 --> 01:42:37,600
theft protection, insurance, all of
2035
01:42:35,360 --> 01:42:39,440
that. Um and yet still having access to
2036
01:42:37,600 --> 01:42:41,840
the bike anytime you want. It's your
2037
01:42:39,440 --> 01:42:44,239
bike. Subscription models like Swap
2038
01:42:41,840 --> 01:42:47,119
Fiats, which already dominate the Dutch
2039
01:42:44,239 --> 01:42:49,600
market, are landing in Valencia. These
2040
01:42:47,119 --> 01:42:51,679
companies treat the bike as a service,
2041
01:42:49,600 --> 01:42:52,960
covering all maintenance and repairs for
2042
01:42:51,679 --> 01:42:54,639
a monthly fee.
2043
01:42:52,960 --> 01:42:56,800
>> Ownership isn't necessarily a bad
2044
01:42:54,639 --> 01:42:58,480
investment, but I think um most
2045
01:42:56,800 --> 01:42:59,920
consumers are moving away from owning
2046
01:42:58,480 --> 01:43:01,679
things. You know, people are leasing
2047
01:42:59,920 --> 01:43:04,400
their cars, people are, you know, more
2048
01:43:01,679 --> 01:43:06,159
and more renting their homes. Um so for
2049
01:43:04,400 --> 01:43:08,400
us, a subscription model made sense.
2050
01:43:06,159 --> 01:43:10,639
That and affordability. This eliminates
2051
01:43:08,400 --> 01:43:13,600
the fear of theft and long-term
2052
01:43:10,639 --> 01:43:15,920
depreciation, turning the bicycle into a
2053
01:43:13,600 --> 01:43:19,119
predictable low- friction utility for
2054
01:43:15,920 --> 01:43:22,080
the modern worker. The impact extends to
2055
01:43:19,119 --> 01:43:24,080
logistics. In Valencia's historic
2056
01:43:22,080 --> 01:43:26,480
center, where large trucks are
2057
01:43:24,080 --> 01:43:28,960
increasingly restricted, last mile
2058
01:43:26,480 --> 01:43:31,360
delivery by cargo bike is becoming the
2059
01:43:28,960 --> 01:43:33,840
gold standard for efficiency. We are
2060
01:43:31,360 --> 01:43:36,320
witnessing the birth of micro hubs,
2061
01:43:33,840 --> 01:43:38,560
small urban distribution centers that
2062
01:43:36,320 --> 01:43:41,920
allow for zero emission high-speed
2063
01:43:38,560 --> 01:43:43,600
delivery in highdensity zones. From the
2064
01:43:41,920 --> 01:43:46,000
massive underwater investments in
2065
01:43:43,600 --> 01:43:48,560
Amsterdam to the emerging subscription
2066
01:43:46,000 --> 01:43:51,600
models in Valencia, the message is
2067
01:43:48,560 --> 01:43:54,480
clear. The bicycle is no longer just a
2068
01:43:51,600 --> 01:43:57,040
hobby. It is a financial instrument and
2069
01:43:54,480 --> 01:43:58,159
a spatial optimizer.
2070
01:43:57,040 --> 01:44:00,639
You know, when we were speaking to
2071
01:43:58,159 --> 01:44:02,960
consumers about how we could get them to
2072
01:44:00,639 --> 01:44:04,800
switch from a car to an ebike, it was
2073
01:44:02,960 --> 01:44:07,040
all about convenience. So, it was about
2074
01:44:04,800 --> 01:44:09,040
this idea that, you know, with a car,
2075
01:44:07,040 --> 01:44:10,800
you can go point A to point B whenever
2076
01:44:09,040 --> 01:44:12,880
you want. You're not relying on public
2077
01:44:10,800 --> 01:44:14,960
transit or any of those things. But if
2078
01:44:12,880 --> 01:44:16,639
you need gas, you go to a gas station,
2079
01:44:14,960 --> 01:44:18,960
it takes 5 minutes, and you're back on
2080
01:44:16,639 --> 01:44:20,800
your way. People perceived ebikes as
2081
01:44:18,960 --> 01:44:22,320
inconvenient because, oh, what if I
2082
01:44:20,800 --> 01:44:24,400
forget to charge the battery? Then it's
2083
01:44:22,320 --> 01:44:26,560
just kind of a very heavy paper weight.
2084
01:44:24,400 --> 01:44:28,239
Um, but if we eliminate that need for
2085
01:44:26,560 --> 01:44:30,719
charging and people can just come and
2086
01:44:28,239 --> 01:44:32,719
collect a charge battery anytime, um, it
2087
01:44:30,719 --> 01:44:35,520
helps break that barrier to entry for
2088
01:44:32,719 --> 01:44:37,600
getting out of a car. By integrating
2089
01:44:35,520 --> 01:44:40,080
these new business models with public
2090
01:44:37,600 --> 01:44:43,119
planning, Valencia is securing its place
2091
01:44:40,080 --> 01:44:45,760
in the 21st century economy. Proving
2092
01:44:43,119 --> 01:44:49,199
that a dense functional city isn't just
2093
01:44:45,760 --> 01:44:51,119
a choice, it's a competitive necessity.
2094
01:44:49,199 --> 01:44:53,119
>> Ultimately, private car ownership is
2095
01:44:51,119 --> 01:44:54,639
going to become obsolete. Cities are
2096
01:44:53,119 --> 01:44:56,320
building for pedestrians. They're
2097
01:44:54,639 --> 01:44:58,880
building for cycling. They're building
2098
01:44:56,320 --> 01:45:00,880
for livability, not for cars.
2099
01:44:58,880 --> 01:45:03,040
>> Throughout this documentary, we have
2100
01:45:00,880 --> 01:45:06,080
seen the gears of a massive economic
2101
01:45:03,040 --> 01:45:09,040
machine. But there is a final myth we
2102
01:45:06,080 --> 01:45:11,440
must dismantle. The idea that cities
2103
01:45:09,040 --> 01:45:13,920
like Amsterdam or Valencia look like
2104
01:45:11,440 --> 01:45:16,400
this because their citizens are simply
2105
01:45:13,920 --> 01:45:20,159
different. History tells a different
2106
01:45:16,400 --> 01:45:22,080
story. In the 1970s, Amsterdam was on
2107
01:45:20,159 --> 01:45:25,040
the verge of becoming another car
2108
01:45:22,080 --> 01:45:27,760
ccentric congested metropolis. The
2109
01:45:25,040 --> 01:45:30,639
transition we see today wasn't a natural
2110
01:45:27,760 --> 01:45:33,280
evolution of culture. It was a hostile
2111
01:45:30,639 --> 01:45:36,159
takeover of urban space by a policy and
2112
01:45:33,280 --> 01:45:38,960
planning. When a city reaches a certain
2113
01:45:36,159 --> 01:45:41,840
density, freedom of choice in transport
2114
01:45:38,960 --> 01:45:45,360
becomes a mathematical impossibility.
2115
01:45:41,840 --> 01:45:47,360
If everyone chooses a car, no one moves.
2116
01:45:45,360 --> 01:45:50,080
In this high stakes environment,
2117
01:45:47,360 --> 01:45:52,560
planning is not an option. It is the
2118
01:45:50,080 --> 01:45:55,600
only way to survive. What is the
2119
01:45:52,560 --> 01:45:58,480
ultimate harvest of this planning? It is
2120
01:45:55,600 --> 01:46:00,719
the 3% GDP boost we mentioned at the
2121
01:45:58,480 --> 01:46:02,320
start. But it's also found in the
2122
01:46:00,719 --> 01:46:05,520
margins,
2123
01:46:02,320 --> 01:46:07,440
the fiscal savings by avoiding the need
2124
01:46:05,520 --> 01:46:09,840
for multi-billion euro highway
2125
01:46:07,440 --> 01:46:12,880
expansions and massive health care costs
2126
01:46:09,840 --> 01:46:15,840
related to sedentary lifestyles.
2127
01:46:12,880 --> 01:46:18,159
The resilience factor by creating a
2128
01:46:15,840 --> 01:46:20,960
circular metropolis that can process its
2129
01:46:18,159 --> 01:46:22,960
own waste at the Kruu depot and turn it
2130
01:46:20,960 --> 01:46:26,080
back into capital.
2131
01:46:22,960 --> 01:46:28,239
The talent magnet in the global war for
2132
01:46:26,080 --> 01:46:31,520
talent. Highly skilled workers choose
2133
01:46:28,239 --> 01:46:33,840
cities based on livability. Amsterdam's
2134
01:46:31,520 --> 01:46:36,480
bicycle infrastructure is its most
2135
01:46:33,840 --> 01:46:38,320
effective recruitment tool. We started
2136
01:46:36,480 --> 01:46:41,520
this journey looking at a simple
2137
01:46:38,320 --> 01:46:44,080
machine, two wheels and a frame. But as
2138
01:46:41,520 --> 01:46:47,040
we've seen, the bicycle in Amsterdam is
2139
01:46:44,080 --> 01:46:49,679
much more than a transport mode. It is a
2140
01:46:47,040 --> 01:46:52,639
financial instrument. It is a spatial
2141
01:46:49,679 --> 01:46:55,600
optimizer. It is the invisible engine
2142
01:46:52,639 --> 01:46:59,600
that allows a medieval city to function
2143
01:46:55,600 --> 01:47:02,560
as a 21st century economic powerhouse.
2144
01:46:59,600 --> 01:47:04,960
The €85 million spent on underwater
2145
01:47:02,560 --> 01:47:08,000
tunnels, the complex logistics of the
2146
01:47:04,960 --> 01:47:11,199
Kruquest Depo, or the new Mediterranean
2147
01:47:08,000 --> 01:47:14,480
bike lanes are not costs. They are
2148
01:47:11,199 --> 01:47:17,040
investments in resilience.
2149
01:47:14,480 --> 01:47:19,280
In a world of rising energy prices and
2150
01:47:17,040 --> 01:47:22,239
shrinking urban space, the Amsterdam
2151
01:47:19,280 --> 01:47:24,480
model offers a glimpse into the future.
2152
01:47:22,239 --> 01:47:27,119
It proves that the most sophisticated
2153
01:47:24,480 --> 01:47:29,920
technology isn't always a new gadget.
2154
01:47:27,119 --> 01:47:33,199
Sometimes it's the perfect integration
2155
01:47:29,920 --> 01:47:36,199
of an old idea into a new circular
2156
01:47:33,199 --> 01:47:36,199
world.
2157
01:48:36,639 --> 01:48:39,639
Imagine
2158
01:48:52,080 --> 01:48:55,840
for a moment, what if your Bitcoin
2159
01:48:54,159 --> 01:48:57,920
holdings could purchase more than just
2160
01:48:55,840 --> 01:49:00,480
everyday items like coffee or the latest
2161
01:48:57,920 --> 01:49:02,400
gadgets? What if that digital currency
2162
01:49:00,480 --> 01:49:04,800
sitting in your wallet could actually
2163
01:49:02,400 --> 01:49:09,560
buy you a house or perhaps even an
2164
01:49:04,800 --> 01:49:09,560
entire commercial building? real estate.
2165
01:49:19,199 --> 01:49:23,280
Welcome to the fascinating and rapidly
2166
01:49:21,199 --> 01:49:25,040
evolving world of crypto real estate
2167
01:49:23,280 --> 01:49:29,639
where digital assets are being
2168
01:49:25,040 --> 01:49:29,639
transformed into tangible property.
2169
01:49:33,520 --> 01:49:36,719
Today, we're taking a deep dive into the
2170
01:49:35,520 --> 01:49:38,719
revolutionary intersection of
2171
01:49:36,719 --> 01:49:41,199
cryptocurrency and property ownership,
2172
01:49:38,719 --> 01:49:43,520
examining in detail how Bitcoin is
2173
01:49:41,199 --> 01:49:45,440
successfully transforming what were once
2174
01:49:43,520 --> 01:49:47,600
purely digital coins into tangible
2175
01:49:45,440 --> 01:49:49,199
physical real estate investments.
2176
01:49:47,600 --> 01:49:51,199
Whether you're an experienced crypto
2177
01:49:49,199 --> 01:49:53,040
investor looking to diversify your
2178
01:49:51,199 --> 01:49:54,719
portfolio or simply someone who's
2179
01:49:53,040 --> 01:49:56,960
curious about emerging trends in
2180
01:49:54,719 --> 01:49:58,880
property markets, this is an in-depth
2181
01:49:56,960 --> 01:50:00,480
look at how the landscape and future of
2182
01:49:58,880 --> 01:50:02,560
real estate transactions is
2183
01:50:00,480 --> 01:50:05,199
fundamentally evolving and changing
2184
01:50:02,560 --> 01:50:07,199
before our eyes.
2185
01:50:05,199 --> 01:50:09,119
The financial world is in constant
2186
01:50:07,199 --> 01:50:11,199
transformation, but in this decade,
2187
01:50:09,119 --> 01:50:14,560
digitalization has accelerated that
2188
01:50:11,199 --> 01:50:17,440
change faster than anyone imagined.
2189
01:50:14,560 --> 01:50:19,600
Today, money, investments, and assets
2190
01:50:17,440 --> 01:50:22,320
flow through codes silent, transparent,
2191
01:50:19,600 --> 01:50:25,119
and borderless. Cryptocurrencies led by
2192
01:50:22,320 --> 01:50:27,040
Bitcoin mark the beginning of a new era.
2193
01:50:25,119 --> 01:50:28,800
They shook the foundations of the global
2194
01:50:27,040 --> 01:50:31,679
financial system, sparking both
2195
01:50:28,800 --> 01:50:34,400
excitement and skepticism. Yet, behind
2196
01:50:31,679 --> 01:50:38,520
that phenomenon emerged something even
2197
01:50:34,400 --> 01:50:38,520
deeper. Tokenization.
2198
01:50:40,639 --> 01:50:43,639
Contraos,
2199
01:50:59,520 --> 01:51:03,080
real world assets.
2200
01:51:23,199 --> 01:51:25,280
Moment.
2201
01:51:35,440 --> 01:51:39,440
tokenization brings. So it's the most
2202
01:51:36,960 --> 01:51:41,040
suitable, most modern ledger technology
2203
01:51:39,440 --> 01:51:41,760
uh ideal for modernizing capital
2204
01:51:41,040 --> 01:51:44,960
markets.
2205
01:51:41,760 --> 01:51:46,960
>> The idea is simple, the impact enormous.
2206
01:51:44,960 --> 01:51:49,599
Each token represents a fraction of an
2207
01:51:46,960 --> 01:51:51,520
asset, a share, a bond, a property, or
2208
01:51:49,599 --> 01:51:53,679
even a work of art. All recorded on a
2209
01:51:51,520 --> 01:51:56,679
blockchain, a global tamper proof
2210
01:51:53,679 --> 01:51:56,679
ledger.
2211
01:52:13,840 --> 01:52:17,239
Smart contracts.
2212
01:52:31,520 --> 01:52:35,440
We believe the next step going forward
2213
01:52:33,360 --> 01:52:39,119
will be the tokenization of financial
2214
01:52:35,440 --> 01:52:41,440
assets. And that means every stock,
2215
01:52:39,119 --> 01:52:44,400
every bond will have its own basically
2216
01:52:41,440 --> 01:52:46,639
QIP. It'll be on one general ledger. In
2217
01:52:44,400 --> 01:52:49,119
other words, a token isn't just an
2218
01:52:46,639 --> 01:52:51,520
asset. It's a digital entry in a new
2219
01:52:49,119 --> 01:52:53,840
kind of ledger that is rewriting how
2220
01:52:51,520 --> 01:52:56,080
capital markets keep their books.
2221
01:52:53,840 --> 01:52:57,599
Investment in tokenized real estates
2222
01:52:56,080 --> 01:52:59,840
represents one of the most recent
2223
01:52:57,599 --> 01:53:02,080
advancements in the property industry.
2224
01:52:59,840 --> 01:53:04,560
Tokenization enables houses and
2225
01:53:02,080 --> 01:53:08,599
apartments to be divided and sold and
2226
01:53:04,560 --> 01:53:08,599
numerous smaller units.
2227
01:53:17,840 --> 01:53:20,000
Fraction.
2228
01:53:29,760 --> 01:53:32,719
Fractal
2229
01:53:54,960 --> 01:53:59,280
Small programs act like a bridge between
2230
01:53:56,800 --> 01:54:01,119
a property and online trading platform.
2231
01:53:59,280 --> 01:54:02,560
Hence tokens create a digital
2232
01:54:01,119 --> 01:54:06,920
representation of a property
2233
01:54:02,560 --> 01:54:06,920
facilitating its digital transfer.
2234
01:54:08,400 --> 01:54:12,320
The process of purchasing a property is
2235
01:54:10,560 --> 01:54:14,719
still associated with significant
2236
01:54:12,320 --> 01:54:17,119
bureaucracy, lengthy procedures and
2237
01:54:14,719 --> 01:54:20,480
subsequent high costs.
2238
01:54:17,119 --> 01:54:22,880
So what exactly is crypto real estate?
2239
01:54:20,480 --> 01:54:25,119
At its core, the term refers to any real
2240
01:54:22,880 --> 01:54:28,000
estate transaction where cryptocurrency
2241
01:54:25,119 --> 01:54:30,480
plays a major role, either as a direct
2242
01:54:28,000 --> 01:54:34,760
form of payment, a converted asset, or
2243
01:54:30,480 --> 01:54:34,760
collateral for purchasing property.
2244
01:54:42,239 --> 01:54:45,239
Bitcoins
2245
01:55:02,159 --> 01:55:06,360
Crypto reference loans.
2246
01:55:26,000 --> 01:55:30,960
But the concept goes even deeper than
2247
01:55:28,719 --> 01:55:32,880
that. Crypto real estate includes buying
2248
01:55:30,960 --> 01:55:35,040
a home directly with Bitcoin or other
2249
01:55:32,880 --> 01:55:38,080
cryptocurrencies, using stable coins
2250
01:55:35,040 --> 01:55:41,040
like USDT or USDC for a more stable
2251
01:55:38,080 --> 01:55:42,960
purchase, converting crypto into fiat at
2252
01:55:41,040 --> 01:55:44,400
closing, taking out loans backed by
2253
01:55:42,960 --> 01:55:46,159
cryptocurrency to purchase real
2254
01:55:44,400 --> 01:55:48,159
property, tokenized real estate where
2255
01:55:46,159 --> 01:55:49,760
ownership is fractionalized into digital
2256
01:55:48,159 --> 01:55:51,440
token, blockchain based property
2257
01:55:49,760 --> 01:55:54,440
records, and smart contract driven
2258
01:55:51,440 --> 01:55:54,440
transactions.
2259
01:56:06,560 --> 01:56:09,960
Stable coins.
2260
01:56:19,760 --> 01:56:22,760
Crypto
2261
01:56:23,679 --> 01:56:26,679
coins
2262
01:56:35,360 --> 01:56:40,360
EMT
2263
01:56:37,360 --> 01:56:40,360
AM
2264
01:56:41,040 --> 01:56:44,040
MT3,
2265
01:56:50,080 --> 01:56:53,080
USDT,
2266
01:56:56,880 --> 01:56:59,880
USDC.
2267
01:57:05,760 --> 01:57:08,760
for
2268
01:57:12,320 --> 01:57:15,320
us.
2269
01:57:19,679 --> 01:57:23,159
Stable coinry.
2270
01:57:34,239 --> 01:57:37,239
Foreign
2271
01:58:15,360 --> 01:58:20,480
It's an evolution in how value moves
2272
01:58:17,599 --> 01:58:22,239
around the world and for the first time
2273
01:58:20,480 --> 01:58:26,360
digital wealth is becoming a direct
2274
01:58:22,239 --> 01:58:26,360
pathway to physical ownership.
2275
01:58:27,920 --> 01:58:31,679
To understand how we arrived at this
2276
01:58:29,920 --> 01:58:34,320
moment, we need to step back and look at
2277
01:58:31,679 --> 01:58:36,400
the timeline. Bitcoin launched in 2009
2278
01:58:34,320 --> 01:58:38,239
as a peer-to-peer digital alternative to
2279
01:58:36,400 --> 01:58:40,080
money. In its early years, the idea of
2280
01:58:38,239 --> 01:58:42,480
using Bitcoin to buy real estate was
2281
01:58:40,080 --> 01:58:44,639
laughable. But Bitcoin grew. First
2282
01:58:42,480 --> 01:58:47,199
crossing $1, then a hundred, then a
2283
01:58:44,639 --> 01:58:49,840
thousand, then tens of thousands. A new
2284
01:58:47,199 --> 01:58:51,840
wave of wealth was created. Suddenly,
2285
01:58:49,840 --> 01:58:54,000
early adopters who once bought pizza
2286
01:58:51,840 --> 01:58:56,960
with Bitcoin now had enough digital
2287
01:58:54,000 --> 01:58:59,360
value to buy entire homes, and sellers
2288
01:58:56,960 --> 01:59:01,360
began paying attention. The first public
2289
01:58:59,360 --> 01:59:04,560
record of a property purchased fully in
2290
01:59:01,360 --> 01:59:06,719
Bitcoin. dates back to 2017. From there,
2291
01:59:04,560 --> 01:59:09,280
the trend spread to luxury markets.
2292
01:59:06,719 --> 01:59:11,599
Miami, Los Angeles, New York, Dubai, and
2293
01:59:09,280 --> 01:59:13,440
London. Developers began marketing
2294
01:59:11,599 --> 01:59:16,159
properties specifically to crypto
2295
01:59:13,440 --> 01:59:19,040
buyers. Brokers started specializing in
2296
01:59:16,159 --> 01:59:20,560
crypto transactions. Escrow companies
2297
01:59:19,040 --> 01:59:22,400
adapted.
2298
01:59:20,560 --> 01:59:25,760
Even governments began studying
2299
01:59:22,400 --> 01:59:28,239
blockchainbased property registries.
2300
01:59:25,760 --> 01:59:30,719
Buying real estate with Bitcoin isn't
2301
01:59:28,239 --> 01:59:32,639
science fiction. Some sellers now accept
2302
01:59:30,719 --> 01:59:34,639
crypto directly, while others work
2303
01:59:32,639 --> 01:59:37,840
through brokers who convert Bitcoin into
2304
01:59:34,639 --> 01:59:39,920
local currency. The process is faster,
2305
01:59:37,840 --> 01:59:42,320
borderless, and sometimes even tax
2306
01:59:39,920 --> 01:59:44,719
efficient if you know the rules. Things
2307
01:59:42,320 --> 01:59:48,080
that sounded impossible in 2010 became
2308
01:59:44,719 --> 01:59:50,400
normal by 2020. And now in the 2020s,
2309
01:59:48,080 --> 01:59:52,800
cryptocurrency is becoming a serious
2310
01:59:50,400 --> 01:59:54,639
player in global real estate. The crypto
2311
01:59:52,800 --> 01:59:56,960
boom has created a new class of
2312
01:59:54,639 --> 01:59:59,520
investors. High- netw worth individuals
2313
01:59:56,960 --> 02:00:02,159
want to diversify and real estate is a
2314
01:59:59,520 --> 02:00:04,960
safe tangible asset. From luxury homes
2315
02:00:02,159 --> 02:00:07,360
in Miami to condos in Dubai, Bitcoin
2316
02:00:04,960 --> 02:00:09,280
buyers are making their mark. Let's look
2317
02:00:07,360 --> 02:00:11,119
at a few real world examples to
2318
02:00:09,280 --> 02:00:14,719
understand how crypto real estate works
2319
02:00:11,119 --> 02:00:17,199
in practice. Case study one. In 2021, a
2320
02:00:14,719 --> 02:00:19,760
luxury penthouse at Arte by Antonio
2321
02:00:17,199 --> 02:00:23,199
Satario in Surfside, Florida made
2322
02:00:19,760 --> 02:00:26,239
history. The property sold for $22.5
2323
02:00:23,199 --> 02:00:28,239
million paid entirely in cryptocurrency.
2324
02:00:26,239 --> 02:00:30,480
The largest publicly known real estate
2325
02:00:28,239 --> 02:00:32,719
transaction completed using digital
2326
02:00:30,480 --> 02:00:34,719
assets at the time. A developer's
2327
02:00:32,719 --> 02:00:37,280
decision to accept cryptocurrency had
2328
02:00:34,719 --> 02:00:39,199
paid off. The sale came just weeks after
2329
02:00:37,280 --> 02:00:41,040
the developer announced it would begin
2330
02:00:39,199 --> 02:00:42,560
accepting cryptocurrency payments
2331
02:00:41,040 --> 02:00:44,400
through a partnership with blockchain
2332
02:00:42,560 --> 02:00:46,239
platform Solid Block. According to
2333
02:00:44,400 --> 02:00:48,560
Forbes, the deal demonstrated that
2334
02:00:46,239 --> 02:00:51,360
crypto was no longer just a speculative
2335
02:00:48,560 --> 02:00:53,920
asset. It had become a viable method for
2336
02:00:51,360 --> 02:00:56,639
purchasing high-end real estate. Hey
2337
02:00:53,920 --> 02:00:58,960
study 2 in Dubai, one of the earliest
2338
02:00:56,639 --> 02:01:01,360
large-scale experiments with crypto real
2339
02:00:58,960 --> 02:01:03,760
estate unfolded at Aston Plaza and
2340
02:01:01,360 --> 02:01:06,480
residences located in Dubai Science
2341
02:01:03,760 --> 02:01:08,159
Park. Marketed as one of the first major
2342
02:01:06,480 --> 02:01:10,719
developments in the region to accept
2343
02:01:08,159 --> 02:01:13,360
Bitcoin. The project offered apartments
2344
02:01:10,719 --> 02:01:15,360
priced directly in cryptocurrency.
2345
02:01:13,360 --> 02:01:18,080
Buyers were able to commit funds using
2346
02:01:15,360 --> 02:01:20,000
Bitcoin, capturing global attention. But
2347
02:01:18,080 --> 02:01:22,880
the story also revealed the risks of
2348
02:01:20,000 --> 02:01:26,400
innovation. Originally advertised as a
2349
02:01:22,880 --> 02:01:28,560
$325 million development. The project
2350
02:01:26,400 --> 02:01:30,960
later stalled and its completion became
2351
02:01:28,560 --> 02:01:33,760
uncertain. While crypto payments were
2352
02:01:30,960 --> 02:01:36,000
accepted, it remains unclear whether all
2353
02:01:33,760 --> 02:01:38,320
buyers ultimately received finished
2354
02:01:36,000 --> 02:01:40,880
properties. The case highlighted both
2355
02:01:38,320 --> 02:01:43,679
the promise and the pitfalls of early
2356
02:01:40,880 --> 02:01:46,800
crypto adoption real estate. Case study
2357
02:01:43,679 --> 02:01:48,639
three. In 2025, Spain recorded one of
2358
02:01:46,800 --> 02:01:51,280
its first officially reported property
2359
02:01:48,639 --> 02:01:54,239
sales completed with Bitcoin. A property
2360
02:01:51,280 --> 02:01:56,159
in Madrid valued at approximately 1.5
2361
02:01:54,239 --> 02:01:58,400
million of euros was purchased by an
2362
02:01:56,159 --> 02:02:00,320
international buyer using Bitcoin. The
2363
02:01:58,400 --> 02:02:02,960
transaction followed standard real
2364
02:02:00,320 --> 02:02:05,280
estate procedures, including escrow,
2365
02:02:02,960 --> 02:02:07,679
legal compliance, and the conversion of
2366
02:02:05,280 --> 02:02:09,679
crypto into euros for the seller. It
2367
02:02:07,679 --> 02:02:11,599
marked a significant milestone showing
2368
02:02:09,679 --> 02:02:13,920
that cryptocurrency could integrate into
2369
02:02:11,599 --> 02:02:16,480
traditional real estate systems even in
2370
02:02:13,920 --> 02:02:19,119
highly regulated European markets. Case
2371
02:02:16,480 --> 02:02:21,679
study four. In the United States, crypto
2372
02:02:19,119 --> 02:02:24,239
adoption hasn't been limited to coastal
2373
02:02:21,679 --> 02:02:26,639
tech hubs. An agent with Safabai
2374
02:02:24,239 --> 02:02:29,440
International Realy in Delaware reported
2375
02:02:26,639 --> 02:02:32,320
selling a luxury property for $175
2376
02:02:29,440 --> 02:02:34,320
million paid in Bitcoin. Believed to be
2377
02:02:32,320 --> 02:02:36,080
one of the state's first major real
2378
02:02:34,320 --> 02:02:38,320
estate transactions involving
2379
02:02:36,080 --> 02:02:40,320
cryptocurrency, the sale was widely
2380
02:02:38,320 --> 02:02:42,320
publicized as a local milestone,
2381
02:02:40,320 --> 02:02:44,320
signaling that crypto real estate was
2382
02:02:42,320 --> 02:02:49,000
beginning to reach beyond niche markets
2383
02:02:44,320 --> 02:02:49,000
and into everyday property transactions.
2384
02:03:05,199 --> 02:03:09,239
different stable coins.
2385
02:03:47,599 --> 02:03:51,159
Maximum. foro.
2386
02:04:40,639 --> 02:04:45,199
Taken together, these cases tell a
2387
02:04:42,560 --> 02:04:47,440
larger story, one of experimentation,
2388
02:04:45,199 --> 02:04:49,760
success, setbacks, and growing
2389
02:04:47,440 --> 02:04:52,000
legitimacy. Crypto real estate is no
2390
02:04:49,760 --> 02:04:54,159
longer hypothetical. It's happening
2391
02:04:52,000 --> 02:04:58,000
transaction by transaction across the
2392
02:04:54,159 --> 02:04:59,840
globe. But it's not all smooth sailing.
2393
02:04:58,000 --> 02:05:02,239
Crypto's value can be volatile.
2394
02:04:59,840 --> 02:05:04,719
Regulations vary by country, and tax
2395
02:05:02,239 --> 02:05:06,960
implications can be tricky. First,
2396
02:05:04,719 --> 02:05:09,199
volatility. Bitcoin and other
2397
02:05:06,960 --> 02:05:10,960
cryptocurrencies can move dramatically,
2398
02:05:09,199 --> 02:05:12,880
sometimes losing or gaining a third of
2399
02:05:10,960 --> 02:05:15,199
their value in weeks. For buyers who
2400
02:05:12,880 --> 02:05:18,560
convert at closing, rapid swings can
2401
02:05:15,199 --> 02:05:21,679
erase gains or spike costs and hours.
2402
02:05:18,560 --> 02:05:23,840
Second, transaction mechanics and title.
2403
02:05:21,679 --> 02:05:25,840
Even when a seller accepts crypto, most
2404
02:05:23,840 --> 02:05:27,280
governments and land registries require
2405
02:05:25,840 --> 02:05:29,679
deeds to be issued in the local
2406
02:05:27,280 --> 02:05:31,920
currency. That usually means an
2407
02:05:29,679 --> 02:05:33,840
intermediary converts crypto to fiat
2408
02:05:31,920 --> 02:05:36,000
before the legal title is registered,
2409
02:05:33,840 --> 02:05:37,760
adding counterparty risk and an extra
2410
02:05:36,000 --> 02:05:40,639
step that can delay and complicate
2411
02:05:37,760 --> 02:05:42,320
settlements. Third, taxes. In many
2412
02:05:40,639 --> 02:05:44,480
jurisdictions, authorities treat crypto
2413
02:05:42,320 --> 02:05:46,320
as property, not currency, which makes
2414
02:05:44,480 --> 02:05:48,639
nearly every transfer a taxable event.
2415
02:05:46,320 --> 02:05:50,800
That includes sales, exchanges, and
2416
02:05:48,639 --> 02:05:53,040
sometimes even payments for goods or
2417
02:05:50,800 --> 02:05:55,280
services. Buyers and sellers must track
2418
02:05:53,040 --> 02:05:57,440
cost basis, gains, and report the
2419
02:05:55,280 --> 02:06:00,000
transactions accurately or face audits
2420
02:05:57,440 --> 02:06:01,840
and penalties. Fourth, lending and
2421
02:06:00,000 --> 02:06:03,440
counterparty risk. Cryptobacked lending
2422
02:06:01,840 --> 02:06:05,280
exploded in the previous market cycle,
2423
02:06:03,440 --> 02:06:07,520
but it ended with high-profile collapses
2424
02:06:05,280 --> 02:06:09,360
and bankruptcies. When platforms fail,
2425
02:06:07,520 --> 02:06:11,280
borrowers and depositors can lose access
2426
02:06:09,360 --> 02:06:12,960
to funds. Collateral can be liquidated
2427
02:06:11,280 --> 02:06:14,800
at a loss and promise liquidity
2428
02:06:12,960 --> 02:06:16,719
disappears. A danger for anyone relying
2429
02:06:14,800 --> 02:06:18,800
on thirdparty services to bridge crypto
2430
02:06:16,719 --> 02:06:20,159
and property purchases.
2431
02:06:18,800 --> 02:06:22,719
Fifth, compliance and
2432
02:06:20,159 --> 02:06:24,400
anti-moneyaundering rules. Regulators
2433
02:06:22,719 --> 02:06:26,239
and global bodies have tightened rules
2434
02:06:24,400 --> 02:06:28,480
around virtual assets to prevent illicit
2435
02:06:26,239 --> 02:06:30,880
flows. Real estate transactions are high
2436
02:06:28,480 --> 02:06:32,560
on that list, meaning additional KYC,
2437
02:06:30,880 --> 02:06:34,639
source of fund checks, and reporting
2438
02:06:32,560 --> 02:06:36,480
requirements. Failure to meet these
2439
02:06:34,639 --> 02:06:38,800
standards can stall a sale, trigger
2440
02:06:36,480 --> 02:06:41,920
investigations, or expose participants
2441
02:06:38,800 --> 02:06:44,159
to legal liability. Sixth, operational
2442
02:06:41,920 --> 02:06:46,000
and technical risk. Crypto transactions
2443
02:06:44,159 --> 02:06:47,599
are irreversible. A single wrong
2444
02:06:46,000 --> 02:06:49,199
character in a wallet address or a
2445
02:06:47,599 --> 02:06:50,960
fishing attack on an email with wiring
2446
02:06:49,199 --> 02:06:52,320
instructions can send millions to the
2447
02:06:50,960 --> 02:06:54,239
wrong place, and there's no bank to
2448
02:06:52,320 --> 02:06:56,159
reverse the transfer. Seventh,
2449
02:06:54,239 --> 02:06:58,159
technology risk, smart contracts,
2450
02:06:56,159 --> 02:07:00,079
tokenization, and new platforms bring
2451
02:06:58,159 --> 02:07:01,840
innovation, but also software bugs and
2452
02:07:00,079 --> 02:07:04,000
design flaws. A poorly written smart
2453
02:07:01,840 --> 02:07:06,239
contract or an unodudited tokenization
2454
02:07:04,000 --> 02:07:09,119
platform can freeze assets, misallocate
2455
02:07:06,239 --> 02:07:11,679
ownership shares or enable exploits.
2456
02:07:09,119 --> 02:07:13,360
Finally, market and reputational risk.
2457
02:07:11,679 --> 02:07:15,040
Developers and brokers who accept crypto
2458
02:07:13,360 --> 02:07:16,880
can attract new buyers, but they also
2459
02:07:15,040 --> 02:07:18,560
take on greater scrutiny, regulatory
2460
02:07:16,880 --> 02:07:20,400
compliance burdens, and the risk that
2461
02:07:18,560 --> 02:07:22,639
projects promoted with crypto funding
2462
02:07:20,400 --> 02:07:25,679
may underdel, stall, or become entangled
2463
02:07:22,639 --> 02:07:27,920
in legal disputes. In short, crypto can
2464
02:07:25,679 --> 02:07:30,560
speed and globalize property deals, but
2465
02:07:27,920 --> 02:07:33,199
it also layers on volatility, regulatory
2466
02:07:30,560 --> 02:07:35,280
complexity, and new failure modes. For
2467
02:07:33,199 --> 02:07:37,599
buyers, sellers, and advisers, the
2468
02:07:35,280 --> 02:07:39,440
lesson is clear. Proceed with rigorous
2469
02:07:37,599 --> 02:07:42,000
legal counsel, hardened custody
2470
02:07:39,440 --> 02:07:44,000
practices, and transparent compliance.
2471
02:07:42,000 --> 02:07:47,000
The opportunity is real, but so are the
2472
02:07:44,000 --> 02:07:47,000
pitfalls.
2473
02:08:05,599 --> 02:08:10,719
Still, the opportunities are huge. A new
2474
02:08:08,639 --> 02:08:13,119
generation of buyers is turning digital
2475
02:08:10,719 --> 02:08:16,000
value into physical assets. For many,
2476
02:08:13,119 --> 02:08:18,320
Bitcoin isn't just a currency. It's a
2477
02:08:16,000 --> 02:08:19,599
gateway to ownership.
2478
02:08:18,320 --> 02:08:21,840
One of the biggest shifts is
2479
02:08:19,599 --> 02:08:24,000
tokenization. Instead of buying an
2480
02:08:21,840 --> 02:08:25,840
entire building, investors can now
2481
02:08:24,000 --> 02:08:28,480
purchase fractional ownership through
2482
02:08:25,840 --> 02:08:30,159
blockchainbased tokens. This lowers the
2483
02:08:28,480 --> 02:08:32,159
barrier to entry, allowing smaller
2484
02:08:30,159 --> 02:08:34,000
investors to access real estate markets
2485
02:08:32,159 --> 02:08:37,639
that were once reserved for institutions
2486
02:08:34,000 --> 02:08:37,639
and the ultra wealthy.
2487
02:08:41,599 --> 02:08:44,599
Okay.
2488
02:08:54,239 --> 02:08:57,239
Fractional
2489
02:09:22,239 --> 02:09:27,119
Tokenization also brings liquidity to an
2490
02:09:25,119 --> 02:09:29,520
industry that has traditionally been
2491
02:09:27,119 --> 02:09:31,920
slow and illquid. Real estate
2492
02:09:29,520 --> 02:09:34,000
transactions can take months. Tokenized
2493
02:09:31,920 --> 02:09:36,719
shares can potentially be transferred in
2494
02:09:34,000 --> 02:09:39,040
minutes. Crypto is also reshaping
2495
02:09:36,719 --> 02:09:41,199
crossber real estate. International
2496
02:09:39,040 --> 02:09:43,920
buyers often face currency controls,
2497
02:09:41,199 --> 02:09:46,000
wire delays, and banking restrictions.
2498
02:09:43,920 --> 02:09:47,920
Cryptocurrency allows capital to move
2499
02:09:46,000 --> 02:09:49,679
globally with fewer friction points,
2500
02:09:47,920 --> 02:09:51,760
opening markets to buyers who were
2501
02:09:49,679 --> 02:09:53,440
previously locked out. As a result,
2502
02:09:51,760 --> 02:09:55,040
cities that embrace crypto-friendly
2503
02:09:53,440 --> 02:09:56,880
regulations are attracting global
2504
02:09:55,040 --> 02:09:58,400
capital faster. Developers are
2505
02:09:56,880 --> 02:10:00,239
responding by marketing properties
2506
02:09:58,400 --> 02:10:02,800
directly to crypto holders, not as a
2507
02:10:00,239 --> 02:10:04,639
novelty, but as a strategy. Governments
2508
02:10:02,800 --> 02:10:06,639
are also exploring blockchain for land
2509
02:10:04,639 --> 02:10:08,639
registries and property records.
2510
02:10:06,639 --> 02:10:10,639
Immutable ledgers can reduce disputes,
2511
02:10:08,639 --> 02:10:13,040
prevent title fraud, and provide
2512
02:10:10,639 --> 02:10:14,560
permanent verifiable ownership history,
2513
02:10:13,040 --> 02:10:16,800
especially in regions where property
2514
02:10:14,560 --> 02:10:18,639
rights are difficult to enforce. This
2515
02:10:16,800 --> 02:10:20,560
isn't a complete replacement of
2516
02:10:18,639 --> 02:10:22,880
traditional real estate. It's a
2517
02:10:20,560 --> 02:10:25,199
transformation. Crypto doesn't eliminate
2518
02:10:22,880 --> 02:10:27,040
the fundamentals. Location, demand, and
2519
02:10:25,199 --> 02:10:28,880
due diligence still matter, but it
2520
02:10:27,040 --> 02:10:31,040
changes how value moves, how quickly
2521
02:10:28,880 --> 02:10:33,040
deals happen, and who gets access. So,
2522
02:10:31,040 --> 02:10:35,199
what does all of this mean for you as an
2523
02:10:33,040 --> 02:10:36,880
investor or future home buyer? It means
2524
02:10:35,199 --> 02:10:38,800
new opportunities are emerging.
2525
02:10:36,880 --> 02:10:41,119
Opportunities to leverage your crypto
2526
02:10:38,800 --> 02:10:43,679
holdings, opportunities to participate
2527
02:10:41,119 --> 02:10:46,159
in international markets more easily,
2528
02:10:43,679 --> 02:10:49,639
opportunities to acquire property faster
2529
02:10:46,159 --> 02:10:49,639
and more efficiently.
2530
02:10:55,119 --> 02:10:58,280
real estate.
2531
02:11:21,520 --> 02:11:24,520
Sophisticate
2532
02:11:48,320 --> 02:11:52,840
kayak system component. Foreign
2533
02:12:19,920 --> 02:12:23,079
real estate.
2534
02:12:29,199 --> 02:12:34,480
>> But like any emerging space, education
2535
02:12:32,159 --> 02:12:37,040
is key. Working with crypto friendly
2536
02:12:34,480 --> 02:12:39,119
agents, attorneys, and escrow companies
2537
02:12:37,040 --> 02:12:41,199
is essential.
2538
02:12:39,119 --> 02:12:42,880
Understanding your local regulations is
2539
02:12:41,199 --> 02:12:44,639
crucial, and ensuring the security of
2540
02:12:42,880 --> 02:12:47,360
your crypto wallet is absolutely
2541
02:12:44,639 --> 02:12:50,360
non-negotiable.
2542
02:12:47,360 --> 02:12:50,360
Fore
2543
02:12:57,599 --> 02:13:00,599
system.
2544
02:13:26,880 --> 02:13:29,880
for
2545
02:13:37,599 --> 02:13:40,599
moment.
2546
02:13:55,119 --> 02:13:58,119
Forement
2547
02:14:24,159 --> 02:14:28,199
Maximo. The last person.
2548
02:14:51,440 --> 02:14:55,920
The cryptocurrency market has entered
2549
02:14:53,360 --> 02:14:59,119
the opening days of 2026 with renewed
2550
02:14:55,920 --> 02:15:01,360
momentum. After a volatile end to 2025,
2551
02:14:59,119 --> 02:15:03,119
prices across major digital assets have
2552
02:15:01,360 --> 02:15:04,719
moved sharply higher, drawing attention
2553
02:15:03,119 --> 02:15:06,960
from both retail traders and
2554
02:15:04,719 --> 02:15:09,280
institutional investors. In early
2555
02:15:06,960 --> 02:15:11,679
January, the total cryptocurrency market
2556
02:15:09,280 --> 02:15:14,079
capitalization climbed to around $3.2
2557
02:15:11,679 --> 02:15:16,079
trillion, according to aggregated data
2558
02:15:14,079 --> 02:15:17,679
from major market trackers. This
2559
02:15:16,079 --> 02:15:20,320
represents a meaningful rebound from
2560
02:15:17,679 --> 02:15:22,079
late 2025 levels with the market adding
2561
02:15:20,320 --> 02:15:24,000
hundreds of billions of dollars in value
2562
02:15:22,079 --> 02:15:25,920
over a relatively short period. While
2563
02:15:24,000 --> 02:15:27,440
exact figures vary, the direction is
2564
02:15:25,920 --> 02:15:29,040
clear. Capital has returned to the
2565
02:15:27,440 --> 02:15:30,880
crypto market at the start of the year.
2566
02:15:29,040 --> 02:15:33,360
At the center of this move is Bitcoin,
2567
02:15:30,880 --> 02:15:35,679
which rallied toward the $93,000 level
2568
02:15:33,360 --> 02:15:37,679
in the first week of January. As the
2569
02:15:35,679 --> 02:15:39,920
largest and most influential digital
2570
02:15:37,679 --> 02:15:41,520
asset, Bitcoin continues to act as the
2571
02:15:39,920 --> 02:15:42,880
market's primary anchor, and its
2572
02:15:41,520 --> 02:15:45,040
strength has helped lift sentiment
2573
02:15:42,880 --> 02:15:47,360
across the broader ecosystem.
2574
02:15:45,040 --> 02:15:49,760
Historically, strong Bitcoin performance
2575
02:15:47,360 --> 02:15:51,119
has often preceded periods of increased
2576
02:15:49,760 --> 02:15:54,000
activity in alternative
2577
02:15:51,119 --> 02:15:55,920
cryptocurrencies, and early 2026 appears
2578
02:15:54,000 --> 02:15:57,599
to be following a similar pattern.
2579
02:15:55,920 --> 02:15:59,199
Another key factor has been renewed
2580
02:15:57,599 --> 02:16:00,880
institutional participation,
2581
02:15:59,199 --> 02:16:03,440
particularly through spot Bitcoin and
2582
02:16:00,880 --> 02:16:05,840
Ethereum exchange traded funds. Reports
2583
02:16:03,440 --> 02:16:07,599
from early January indicate notable ETF
2584
02:16:05,840 --> 02:16:09,440
inflows, suggesting that traditional
2585
02:16:07,599 --> 02:16:11,520
investors are once again increasing
2586
02:16:09,440 --> 02:16:13,199
exposure to digital assets. The current
2587
02:16:11,520 --> 02:16:15,119
momentum appears to be driven by a
2588
02:16:13,199 --> 02:16:18,079
combination of factors, including
2589
02:16:15,119 --> 02:16:20,880
Bitcoin's price recovery, increased ETF
2590
02:16:18,079 --> 02:16:22,400
inflows, improved global risk sentiment,
2591
02:16:20,880 --> 02:16:24,800
expectations of more supportive
2592
02:16:22,400 --> 02:16:27,280
regulatory and macroeconomic conditions.
2593
02:16:24,800 --> 02:16:29,040
As 2026 begins, the cryptocurrency
2594
02:16:27,280 --> 02:16:31,280
market finds itself at a familiar
2595
02:16:29,040 --> 02:16:32,960
crossroads. Renewed optimism balanced
2596
02:16:31,280 --> 02:16:34,559
against persistent uncertainty. Whether
2597
02:16:32,960 --> 02:16:36,399
this earlier strength marks the
2598
02:16:34,559 --> 02:16:38,080
beginning of a sustained trend or simply
2599
02:16:36,399 --> 02:16:40,080
another chapter in crypto's cyclical
2600
02:16:38,080 --> 02:16:43,200
nature is a question that only time will
2601
02:16:40,080 --> 02:16:45,920
answer. For now, the message from the
2602
02:16:43,200 --> 02:16:47,920
market is clear. Crypto is once again
2603
02:16:45,920 --> 02:16:49,599
commanding attention. If you approach
2604
02:16:47,920 --> 02:16:51,679
crypto real estate with knowledge and
2605
02:16:49,599 --> 02:16:54,479
preparation, the rewards can be
2606
02:16:51,679 --> 02:16:57,359
extraordinary. Bitcoin the bricks isn't
2607
02:16:54,479 --> 02:16:59,679
just a catchy phrase. It's the future of
2608
02:16:57,359 --> 02:17:02,000
real estate investment. If you want to
2609
02:16:59,679 --> 02:17:04,479
stay ahead of the curve, now's the time
2610
02:17:02,000 --> 02:17:07,479
to learn how crypto can open doors.
2611
02:17:04,479 --> 02:17:07,479
Literally.
2612
02:17:18,160 --> 02:17:21,160
Explorer.
2613
02:17:30,800 --> 02:17:33,800
Transparenc.
2614
02:18:04,479 --> 02:18:08,319
From digital coins to physical assets,
2615
02:18:06,639 --> 02:18:10,399
from online wallets to real world
2616
02:18:08,319 --> 02:18:12,479
property lines, cryptocurrency is
2617
02:18:10,399 --> 02:18:14,960
reshaping how we buy, sell, and think
2618
02:18:12,479 --> 02:18:17,280
about real estate. We are witnessing the
2619
02:18:14,960 --> 02:18:19,040
merging of two worlds. The oldest asset
2620
02:18:17,280 --> 02:18:21,280
on earth and one of the newest
2621
02:18:19,040 --> 02:18:24,080
technological inventions of our time.
2622
02:18:21,280 --> 02:18:26,559
And as the future unfolds, only one
2623
02:18:24,080 --> 02:18:29,880
question remain. Will Bitcoin buy your
2624
02:18:26,559 --> 02:18:29,880
next home?
2625
02:19:53,040 --> 02:19:58,399
September 2008.
2626
02:19:55,920 --> 02:20:01,040
The global financial system is on the
2627
02:19:58,399 --> 02:20:04,000
verge of a total blackout. Layman
2628
02:20:01,040 --> 02:20:07,760
Brothers has vanished. Meil Lynch is
2629
02:20:04,000 --> 02:20:09,840
gone. AIG is hemorrhaging billions every
2630
02:20:07,760 --> 02:20:12,080
hour.
2631
02:20:09,840 --> 02:20:14,000
In Washington, the halls of the Treasury
2632
02:20:12,080 --> 02:20:17,359
are filled with the smartest minds in
2633
02:20:14,000 --> 02:20:20,240
the country. But they have a problem.
2634
02:20:17,359 --> 02:20:23,200
They are staring at a black box of toxic
2635
02:20:20,240 --> 02:20:26,240
debt worth trillions and no tools to
2636
02:20:23,200 --> 02:20:29,280
open it. There is only one person who
2637
02:20:26,240 --> 02:20:31,760
has the map. One person who spent the
2638
02:20:29,280 --> 02:20:34,000
last 20 years building a digital
2639
02:20:31,760 --> 02:20:36,720
unblinking eye that can see through the
2640
02:20:34,000 --> 02:20:39,200
wreckage. The government didn't call the
2641
02:20:36,720 --> 02:20:41,920
big banks to save the world. They needed
2642
02:20:39,200 --> 02:20:43,840
someone to handle the toxic waste. And
2643
02:20:41,920 --> 02:20:47,359
there was only one man that could lead
2644
02:20:43,840 --> 02:20:50,359
through that darkness. They called Larry
2645
02:20:47,359 --> 02:20:50,359
Frink.
2646
02:20:51,760 --> 02:20:57,399
Larry Frink, the man behind Black Rock.
2647
02:20:58,160 --> 02:21:04,640
Today, he manages more money than the
2648
02:21:00,240 --> 02:21:06,880
GDP of almost every nation on Earth, $14
2649
02:21:04,640 --> 02:21:08,880
trillion.
2650
02:21:06,880 --> 02:21:11,200
But before he was the shadow sovereign
2651
02:21:08,880 --> 02:21:12,880
of Wall Street, he was a man who lost
2652
02:21:11,200 --> 02:21:16,960
everything.
2653
02:21:12,880 --> 02:21:19,040
Who is Larry Frink? Lawrence D.Fin, also
2654
02:21:16,960 --> 02:21:21,760
known as Larry Frink, is one of the
2655
02:21:19,040 --> 02:21:25,120
co-founders of Black Rockck. He is also
2656
02:21:21,760 --> 02:21:27,120
the chairman and CEO of the company, the
2657
02:21:25,120 --> 02:21:30,319
largest money management firm in the
2658
02:21:27,120 --> 02:21:32,080
world. It's the first time in history a
2659
02:21:30,319 --> 02:21:34,720
company manages to reach such a
2660
02:21:32,080 --> 02:21:37,760
milestone and gives a clear picture of
2661
02:21:34,720 --> 02:21:40,399
how Black Rockck operates. Not just a
2662
02:21:37,760 --> 02:21:42,720
traditional investment bank, but as a
2663
02:21:40,399 --> 02:21:45,439
central pillar of the global financial
2664
02:21:42,720 --> 02:21:47,680
infrastructure, where its sheer scale
2665
02:21:45,439 --> 02:21:49,520
allows it to influence economies and
2666
02:21:47,680 --> 02:21:53,840
industries at a level previously
2667
02:21:49,520 --> 02:21:56,800
reserved only for nation states.
2668
02:21:53,840 --> 02:21:59,680
Founded in 1988 as an investment firm
2669
02:21:56,800 --> 02:22:03,840
that prioritized risk management with
2670
02:21:59,680 --> 02:22:07,120
11.5 to 14 trillion under management,
2671
02:22:03,840 --> 02:22:09,359
Black Rockck's influence is staggering.
2672
02:22:07,120 --> 02:22:13,439
Black Rockck is a top three shareholder
2673
02:22:09,359 --> 02:22:16,640
in nearly every company in the S&P 500
2674
02:22:13,439 --> 02:22:19,520
from Apple to Exxon, from Microsoft to
2675
02:22:16,640 --> 02:22:23,280
Nestle. They don't just invest in the
2676
02:22:19,520 --> 02:22:26,160
market, they are the market.
2677
02:22:23,280 --> 02:22:28,800
But its reach is personal. It holds the
2678
02:22:26,160 --> 02:22:31,920
retirement dreams of over 35 million
2679
02:22:28,800 --> 02:22:34,479
Americans. This is the story of how a
2680
02:22:31,920 --> 02:22:38,080
kid from a California shoe store became
2681
02:22:34,479 --> 02:22:41,600
the custodian of the world's wealth. But
2682
02:22:38,080 --> 02:22:44,160
who is Larry Frink? Lawrence Douglas
2683
02:22:41,600 --> 02:22:46,640
Frink entered the world on November the
2684
02:22:44,160 --> 02:22:49,359
2nd, 1952.
2685
02:22:46,640 --> 02:22:51,359
Born in Los Angeles, California, he was
2686
02:22:49,359 --> 02:22:53,359
raised in a Jewish family in the heart
2687
02:22:51,359 --> 02:22:55,680
of San Fernando Valley, the
2688
02:22:53,359 --> 02:22:57,920
quintessential American suburb of
2689
02:22:55,680 --> 02:23:00,080
Vanois.
2690
02:22:57,920 --> 02:23:03,040
His home was a balance of academic
2691
02:23:00,080 --> 02:23:05,120
discipline and retail grit. His mother,
2692
02:23:03,040 --> 02:23:06,960
Leela, was an English professor who
2693
02:23:05,120 --> 02:23:08,479
valued the power of language and
2694
02:23:06,960 --> 02:23:10,479
education.
2695
02:23:08,479 --> 02:23:12,800
And long before he pulled the strings of
2696
02:23:10,479 --> 02:23:14,880
the global economy, Larry Frink was
2697
02:23:12,800 --> 02:23:16,479
learning the value of money on a much
2698
02:23:14,880 --> 02:23:19,439
smaller scale.
2699
02:23:16,479 --> 02:23:21,600
his father's shoe store in Vanoise where
2700
02:23:19,439 --> 02:23:24,880
he spent evenings helping and learning
2701
02:23:21,600 --> 02:23:27,120
the business. As one of three children,
2702
02:23:24,880 --> 02:23:29,600
Larry grew up in a household where hard
2703
02:23:27,120 --> 02:23:31,120
work wasn't just encouraged, it was the
2704
02:23:29,600 --> 02:23:33,120
baseline.
2705
02:23:31,120 --> 02:23:35,200
While he often joked he wasn't the
2706
02:23:33,120 --> 02:23:37,359
smartest in the room, it was this
2707
02:23:35,200 --> 02:23:40,080
specific combination of his mother's
2708
02:23:37,359 --> 02:23:42,160
intellectual curiosity and his father's
2709
02:23:40,080 --> 02:23:44,720
mainstream business sense that would
2710
02:23:42,160 --> 02:23:47,840
eventually form the DNA of a global
2711
02:23:44,720 --> 02:23:49,760
financial giant. While the future titans
2712
02:23:47,840 --> 02:23:52,160
of Wall Street were rubbing elbows in
2713
02:23:49,760 --> 02:23:56,399
the marble halls of Harvard or Yale,
2714
02:23:52,160 --> 02:23:58,560
Think was a brewin. In 1970, Larry
2715
02:23:56,399 --> 02:24:00,960
arrived at UCLA.
2716
02:23:58,560 --> 02:24:03,840
For a young man from Vanoise, this
2717
02:24:00,960 --> 02:24:05,920
wasn't just a local university. It was a
2718
02:24:03,840 --> 02:24:08,080
world of ideas.
2719
02:24:05,920 --> 02:24:10,560
But it was in his final years that the
2720
02:24:08,080 --> 02:24:13,040
trajectory of his life shifted. He
2721
02:24:10,560 --> 02:24:14,880
immersed himself in political science,
2722
02:24:13,040 --> 02:24:17,760
learning how power moves through
2723
02:24:14,880 --> 02:24:19,920
nations. But he soon realized that in
2724
02:24:17,760 --> 02:24:22,479
the modern world, power follows the
2725
02:24:19,920 --> 02:24:24,560
money. This led him to the Anderson
2726
02:24:22,479 --> 02:24:27,359
School of Management, specializing in
2727
02:24:24,560 --> 02:24:29,200
real estate. It was here that he began
2728
02:24:27,359 --> 02:24:32,000
to see the world through the lens of
2729
02:24:29,200 --> 02:24:33,920
assets and yields.
2730
02:24:32,000 --> 02:24:36,399
This public education gave him a
2731
02:24:33,920 --> 02:24:38,240
different edge. While his peers at
2732
02:24:36,399 --> 02:24:40,479
private East Coast schools were being
2733
02:24:38,240 --> 02:24:43,200
groomed for traditional corporate roles,
2734
02:24:40,479 --> 02:24:45,200
Larry was developing the outsider's eye,
2735
02:24:43,200 --> 02:24:47,439
a perspective that allowed him to see
2736
02:24:45,200 --> 02:24:51,640
opportunities in the messy, unpolished
2737
02:24:47,439 --> 02:24:51,640
corners of the bond market.
2738
02:24:52,240 --> 02:24:58,000
He graduated in 1976, not with a silver
2739
02:24:55,920 --> 02:24:59,920
spoon, but with a California bred
2740
02:24:58,000 --> 02:25:01,600
ambition to take on the giants of
2741
02:24:59,920 --> 02:25:04,240
Manhattan.
2742
02:25:01,600 --> 02:25:06,720
He was a brewin headed for Wall Street,
2743
02:25:04,240 --> 02:25:09,880
and the financial world had no idea what
2744
02:25:06,720 --> 02:25:09,880
was coming.
2745
02:25:12,080 --> 02:25:16,560
The year is 1976.
2746
02:25:14,640 --> 02:25:18,720
New York City is a grit cover
2747
02:25:16,560 --> 02:25:21,439
battlefield and Larry Frink has just
2748
02:25:18,720 --> 02:25:23,760
been handed the keys to the kingdom.
2749
02:25:21,439 --> 02:25:26,000
Goldman Sachs, the most prestigious name
2750
02:25:23,760 --> 02:25:29,280
in finance back then, has practically
2751
02:25:26,000 --> 02:25:32,319
hired him. He had passed the technical
2752
02:25:29,280 --> 02:25:34,080
tests. He had charmed the partners. All
2753
02:25:32,319 --> 02:25:36,640
that remained was a rubber stamp
2754
02:25:34,080 --> 02:25:40,080
interview with human resources.
2755
02:25:36,640 --> 02:25:42,720
But Larry, Larry wasn't just confident,
2756
02:25:40,080 --> 02:25:44,560
he was impatient. When the recruiter
2757
02:25:42,720 --> 02:25:47,040
asked for his thoughts on the firm,
2758
02:25:44,560 --> 02:25:49,680
Larry didn't give a thank you. He gave a
2759
02:25:47,040 --> 02:25:52,160
consultation. He pointed out the flaws
2760
02:25:49,680 --> 02:25:55,280
in their system. At Goldman, they wanted
2761
02:25:52,160 --> 02:25:58,520
a soldier. Larry was already acting like
2762
02:25:55,280 --> 02:25:58,520
a general.
2763
02:26:00,080 --> 02:26:05,439
In that room, the rigid Golden Way
2764
02:26:02,399 --> 02:26:07,520
clashed with the unfiltered Frink way.
2765
02:26:05,439 --> 02:26:10,960
Before he could even hail a camp back to
2766
02:26:07,520 --> 02:26:13,280
his hotel, the offer was dead. The most
2767
02:26:10,960 --> 02:26:15,600
coveted job in Wall Street history had
2768
02:26:13,280 --> 02:26:17,439
vanished. All because Larry Frink
2769
02:26:15,600 --> 02:26:20,800
couldn't stop himself from trying to fix
2770
02:26:17,439 --> 02:26:23,840
a system he hadn't even joined yet. It
2771
02:26:20,800 --> 02:26:26,319
was a crushing blow. But in the shadow
2772
02:26:23,840 --> 02:26:28,560
of that rejection, a door opened at a
2773
02:26:26,319 --> 02:26:31,040
scrappy second tier firm called First
2774
02:26:28,560 --> 02:26:34,399
Boston. It was a place with less
2775
02:26:31,040 --> 02:26:36,720
prestige but more white space. At
2776
02:26:34,399 --> 02:26:39,760
Goldman, he would have been a cog in a
2777
02:26:36,720 --> 02:26:42,640
perfect machine. At First Boston, he was
2778
02:26:39,760 --> 02:26:44,640
the architect. He was given a desk, a
2779
02:26:42,640 --> 02:26:46,960
telephone, and the freedom to build
2780
02:26:44,640 --> 02:26:49,840
something entirely new, the
2781
02:26:46,960 --> 02:26:52,560
mortgagebacked security. He didn't know
2782
02:26:49,840 --> 02:26:55,200
it yet, but that recruiters know was the
2783
02:26:52,560 --> 02:27:00,200
foundation upon which the $14 trillion
2784
02:26:55,200 --> 02:27:00,200
empire of Black Rock would be built.
2785
02:27:05,120 --> 02:27:11,439
It's 1976 when Larry Frink arrives at
2786
02:27:08,399 --> 02:27:13,439
First Boston. At the time, the firm was
2787
02:27:11,439 --> 02:27:16,160
the scrappy underdog of investment
2788
02:27:13,439 --> 02:27:19,760
banking. It wasn't as stiff as Morgan
2789
02:27:16,160 --> 02:27:21,920
Stanley or as elitist as Goldman. It was
2790
02:27:19,760 --> 02:27:25,040
the perfect laboratory for a man who
2791
02:27:21,920 --> 02:27:28,080
didn't fit the mold. Larry was assigned
2792
02:27:25,040 --> 02:27:30,080
to the bond department. Back then, bonds
2793
02:27:28,080 --> 02:27:31,280
were considered the boring corner of
2794
02:27:30,080 --> 02:27:34,160
finance.
2795
02:27:31,280 --> 02:27:37,200
It was where you went to retire. Stocks
2796
02:27:34,160 --> 02:27:40,160
were sexy. Bonds were for grandmothers.
2797
02:27:37,200 --> 02:27:41,680
But Larry saw something everyone else
2798
02:27:40,160 --> 02:27:43,920
missed.
2799
02:27:41,680 --> 02:27:46,640
He looked at the American dream, the
2800
02:27:43,920 --> 02:27:49,600
suburban house, the white picket fence,
2801
02:27:46,640 --> 02:27:51,120
the 30-year mortgage, and he saw a math
2802
02:27:49,600 --> 02:27:53,120
problem.
2803
02:27:51,120 --> 02:27:55,600
He realized that if you took thousands
2804
02:27:53,120 --> 02:27:57,680
of individual home mortgages, bundled
2805
02:27:55,600 --> 02:28:00,399
them together like a deck of cards, and
2806
02:27:57,680 --> 02:28:03,439
sold slices of that deck to investors,
2807
02:28:00,399 --> 02:28:06,319
you created a money machine.
2808
02:28:03,439 --> 02:28:07,840
This was the birth of the securitization
2809
02:28:06,319 --> 02:28:10,240
market.
2810
02:28:07,840 --> 02:28:12,880
What Larry Frink helped create was more
2811
02:28:10,240 --> 02:28:16,439
than a financial product. It was a
2812
02:28:12,880 --> 02:28:16,439
structural shift.
2813
02:28:16,800 --> 02:28:21,760
Securitization didn't just bundle
2814
02:28:18,960 --> 02:28:23,280
mortgages. It separated risk from
2815
02:28:21,760 --> 02:28:25,520
reality.
2816
02:28:23,280 --> 02:28:27,520
For the first time, financial value
2817
02:28:25,520 --> 02:28:30,479
could travel faster than the underlying
2818
02:28:27,520 --> 02:28:32,399
economy that supported it. A house in
2819
02:28:30,479 --> 02:28:34,640
California became a line in a
2820
02:28:32,399 --> 02:28:38,240
spreadsheet in New York, which became a
2821
02:28:34,640 --> 02:28:40,240
yield sold to an investor in Tokyo. Risk
2822
02:28:38,240 --> 02:28:43,280
no longer lived where decisions were
2823
02:28:40,240 --> 02:28:45,600
made. It was abstracted, sliced,
2824
02:28:43,280 --> 02:28:48,399
repackaged, and distributed across the
2825
02:28:45,600 --> 02:28:50,640
system. This was the moment when finance
2826
02:28:48,399 --> 02:28:54,000
stopped reflecting the real economy and
2827
02:28:50,640 --> 02:28:56,319
began building a parallel one. A system
2828
02:28:54,000 --> 02:28:58,160
that could grow without limits as long
2829
02:28:56,319 --> 02:29:02,319
as everyone believed the models were
2830
02:28:58,160 --> 02:29:04,960
right. And for a while they were.
2831
02:29:02,319 --> 02:29:07,520
By the early 80s, Larry was the golden
2832
02:29:04,960 --> 02:29:10,000
boy. He wasn't just hitting targets, he
2833
02:29:07,520 --> 02:29:12,160
was shattering them. In one year, his
2834
02:29:10,000 --> 02:29:14,240
department was responsible for nearly
2835
02:29:12,160 --> 02:29:17,359
onethird of First Boston's total
2836
02:29:14,240 --> 02:29:19,600
profits. At age 31, he became the
2837
02:29:17,359 --> 02:29:22,640
youngest managing director the firm had
2838
02:29:19,600 --> 02:29:25,120
ever seen. He was earning millions. He
2839
02:29:22,640 --> 02:29:27,920
was the successor, the prodigy, the man
2840
02:29:25,120 --> 02:29:30,640
who could do no wrong. He had moved to
2841
02:29:27,920 --> 02:29:33,040
his family to a sprawling estate. He was
2842
02:29:30,640 --> 02:29:37,640
flying private. He had conquered the
2843
02:29:33,040 --> 02:29:37,640
grit cover battlefield of Manhattan.
2844
02:29:38,160 --> 02:29:42,560
But in the world of high finance, the
2845
02:29:40,319 --> 02:29:45,560
higher you fly, the thinner the air
2846
02:29:42,560 --> 02:29:45,560
becomes.
2847
02:29:47,120 --> 02:29:51,359
Larry was making hundreds of millions
2848
02:29:49,040 --> 02:29:54,240
for the bank, but there was a ghost in
2849
02:29:51,359 --> 02:29:58,160
the machine, a variable he hadn't
2850
02:29:54,240 --> 02:30:00,399
accounted for. The year was 1986.
2851
02:29:58,160 --> 02:30:03,200
Larry had made a massive bet on interest
2852
02:30:00,399 --> 02:30:06,800
rates. He believed they would stay
2853
02:30:03,200 --> 02:30:08,800
stable. He was so sure of his math, so
2854
02:30:06,800 --> 02:30:10,800
confident in his track record that he
2855
02:30:08,800 --> 02:30:13,040
didn't realize the ground was shifting
2856
02:30:10,800 --> 02:30:15,040
beneath his feet.
2857
02:30:13,040 --> 02:30:17,280
In just 3 months, the Golden Boys
2858
02:30:15,040 --> 02:30:21,120
department went from profit to a
2859
02:30:17,280 --> 02:30:24,240
catastrophic $100 million loss. In the
2860
02:30:21,120 --> 02:30:27,120
80s, 100 million wasn't just a loss. It
2861
02:30:24,240 --> 02:30:29,200
was a national scandal. Overnight, the
2862
02:30:27,120 --> 02:30:32,399
man who was supposed to run the bank was
2863
02:30:29,200 --> 02:30:34,319
a pariah. The phone stopped ringing. The
2864
02:30:32,399 --> 02:30:36,720
friends on the trading floor looked away
2865
02:30:34,319 --> 02:30:38,880
when he walked by. He had been the
2866
02:30:36,720 --> 02:30:41,680
smartest man in the room until he
2867
02:30:38,880 --> 02:30:43,920
wasn't. He would later describe this
2868
02:30:41,680 --> 02:30:47,120
moment as the most painful experience of
2869
02:30:43,920 --> 02:30:49,760
my life. But as he sat in the ruins of
2870
02:30:47,120 --> 02:30:52,160
his reputation, Larry Frink wasn't just
2871
02:30:49,760 --> 02:30:55,680
mourning his career. He was obsessed
2872
02:30:52,160 --> 02:30:57,200
with one question. How did I not see the
2873
02:30:55,680 --> 02:30:59,760
risk?
2874
02:30:57,200 --> 02:31:02,160
That obsession, the fear of the unknown
2875
02:30:59,760 --> 02:31:05,800
variable, would become the cornerstone
2876
02:31:02,160 --> 02:31:05,800
of Black Rockck.
2877
02:31:08,880 --> 02:31:15,120
By 1983, Larry wasn't just selling
2878
02:31:11,680 --> 02:31:19,560
bonds, he was a pioneer of the CMO,
2879
02:31:15,120 --> 02:31:19,560
collateralized mortgage obligation.
2880
02:31:19,760 --> 02:31:24,720
Think of it like a waterfall. Larry took
2881
02:31:22,560 --> 02:31:27,680
thousands of mortgages and sliced them
2882
02:31:24,720 --> 02:31:30,720
into tranches. Some investors took the
2883
02:31:27,680 --> 02:31:33,920
top slice, low risk, low reward. Others
2884
02:31:30,720 --> 02:31:35,760
took the bottom, high risk, high yield.
2885
02:31:33,920 --> 02:31:39,600
It was a masterpiece of financial
2886
02:31:35,760 --> 02:31:42,319
engineering. It made the illquid liquid.
2887
02:31:39,600 --> 02:31:44,640
It made first Boston the center of the
2888
02:31:42,319 --> 02:31:46,800
universe.
2889
02:31:44,640 --> 02:31:49,760
But there was a flaw, a tiny
2890
02:31:46,800 --> 02:31:51,760
mathematical ghost in his models.
2891
02:31:49,760 --> 02:31:54,080
Larry's team had predicted that interest
2892
02:31:51,760 --> 02:31:56,479
rates would rise and they hedged their
2893
02:31:54,080 --> 02:31:59,520
bets accordingly. But in the second
2894
02:31:56,479 --> 02:32:01,920
quarter of 1986, rates did something the
2895
02:31:59,520 --> 02:32:03,520
models said was impossible. They
2896
02:32:01,920 --> 02:32:05,280
plummeted
2897
02:32:03,520 --> 02:32:07,600
because they didn't have a system to
2898
02:32:05,280 --> 02:32:10,399
track their real-time exposure. Larry
2899
02:32:07,600 --> 02:32:13,439
was flying blind. He was the pilot of a
2900
02:32:10,399 --> 02:32:15,600
Boeing 747 trying to land in a storm
2901
02:32:13,439 --> 02:32:18,080
using nothing but a compass and a
2902
02:32:15,600 --> 02:32:20,160
prayer. By the time he realized the
2903
02:32:18,080 --> 02:32:24,160
engines were on fire, the plane had
2904
02:32:20,160 --> 02:32:27,560
already hit the mountain. $100 million.
2905
02:32:24,160 --> 02:32:27,560
All gone.
2906
02:32:29,760 --> 02:32:35,040
He wasn't just fired, he was erased.
2907
02:32:32,960 --> 02:32:38,080
After the dust settled, Larry found
2908
02:32:35,040 --> 02:32:41,120
himself in a peculiar kind of exile. He
2909
02:32:38,080 --> 02:32:43,840
wasn't just unemployed, he was haunted.
2910
02:32:41,120 --> 02:32:46,160
He realized that the $100 million loss
2911
02:32:43,840 --> 02:32:49,760
wasn't a failure of talent, it was a
2912
02:32:46,160 --> 02:32:52,479
failure of vision. What happened in 1986
2913
02:32:49,760 --> 02:32:55,439
wasn't a personal miscalculation.
2914
02:32:52,479 --> 02:32:57,760
It was a systemic blindness.
2915
02:32:55,439 --> 02:33:00,640
At the time, every major financial
2916
02:32:57,760 --> 02:33:03,680
institution operated the same way.
2917
02:33:00,640 --> 02:33:06,319
Positions were fragmented. Exposure was
2918
02:33:03,680 --> 02:33:09,439
estimated, not measured. Risk was
2919
02:33:06,319 --> 02:33:11,760
inferred after the fact. Banks knew what
2920
02:33:09,439 --> 02:33:14,800
they bought yesterday, but not what it
2921
02:33:11,760 --> 02:33:17,439
was worth right now. The system rewarded
2922
02:33:14,800 --> 02:33:19,920
speed, volume, and confidence, not
2923
02:33:17,439 --> 02:33:22,720
understanding. And as long as markets
2924
02:33:19,920 --> 02:33:25,120
moved slowly, the illusion held. But
2925
02:33:22,720 --> 02:33:28,080
once volatility entered the market, no
2926
02:33:25,120 --> 02:33:31,120
one truly knew where the danger was or
2927
02:33:28,080 --> 02:33:33,760
how large it had become. Larry didn't
2928
02:33:31,120 --> 02:33:35,760
just lose money. He realized the entire
2929
02:33:33,760 --> 02:33:38,720
financial system was flying without
2930
02:33:35,760 --> 02:33:41,760
instruments. Wall Street was essentially
2931
02:33:38,720 --> 02:33:45,760
a collection of blind giants. Every
2932
02:33:41,760 --> 02:33:47,760
major firm, Goldman, Layman, Meil Lynch,
2933
02:33:45,760 --> 02:33:52,240
was standing just one inch away from
2934
02:33:47,760 --> 02:33:54,160
total collapse at any given second. Why?
2935
02:33:52,240 --> 02:33:57,040
Because they didn't actually know what
2936
02:33:54,160 --> 02:33:59,920
they owned. This was information
2937
02:33:57,040 --> 02:34:02,319
blindness.
2938
02:33:59,920 --> 02:34:04,640
In the 1980s, you knew what you bought
2939
02:34:02,319 --> 02:34:07,920
yesterday, but you had no idea what it
2940
02:34:04,640 --> 02:34:10,479
was worth right now. A sudden shift in
2941
02:34:07,920 --> 02:34:12,800
interest rates or a political coup
2942
02:34:10,479 --> 02:34:14,560
across the ocean could vaporize a
2943
02:34:12,800 --> 02:34:17,520
billion dollars before the morning
2944
02:34:14,560 --> 02:34:20,800
coffee was poured.
2945
02:34:17,520 --> 02:34:23,439
Larry understood a terrifying truth. The
2946
02:34:20,800 --> 02:34:26,720
entire global financial system was built
2947
02:34:23,439 --> 02:34:28,640
on a foundation of guesswork.
2948
02:34:26,720 --> 02:34:32,080
It hit him with the force of an
2949
02:34:28,640 --> 02:34:33,920
epiphany. If he could build a brain, a
2950
02:34:32,080 --> 02:34:36,319
machine that could see the risk that
2951
02:34:33,920 --> 02:34:39,120
humans were too slow to calculate, he
2952
02:34:36,319 --> 02:34:40,880
wouldn't just be a banker. He would be
2953
02:34:39,120 --> 02:34:43,840
the only man in the world with a
2954
02:34:40,880 --> 02:34:45,920
flashlight in a dark room. This
2955
02:34:43,840 --> 02:34:48,560
realization changed his entire
2956
02:34:45,920 --> 02:34:50,640
philosophy of investing. He stopped
2957
02:34:48,560 --> 02:34:53,280
looking for the big score and started
2958
02:34:50,640 --> 02:34:55,680
looking for the safe passage. He didn't
2959
02:34:53,280 --> 02:34:59,280
want to beat the market anymore. He
2960
02:34:55,680 --> 02:35:01,680
wanted to measure it.
2961
02:34:59,280 --> 02:35:04,960
He would later tell his partners, "We
2962
02:35:01,680 --> 02:35:08,560
are never going to be blind again." That
2963
02:35:04,960 --> 02:35:10,720
vow born from the humiliation of 1986
2964
02:35:08,560 --> 02:35:13,920
became the blueprint for a new kind of
2965
02:35:10,720 --> 02:35:16,399
firm. A firm that didn't rely on the ego
2966
02:35:13,920 --> 02:35:20,680
of a star trader, but on the cold,
2967
02:35:16,399 --> 02:35:20,680
unblinking eye of technology.
2968
02:35:25,439 --> 02:35:31,439
Larry Frink was a man with a vision, but
2969
02:35:28,240 --> 02:35:33,359
he was also a man with a tainted resume.
2970
02:35:31,439 --> 02:35:36,160
To the rest of Wall Street, he was the
2971
02:35:33,359 --> 02:35:38,240
guy who lost a h 100red million. But to
2972
02:35:36,160 --> 02:35:40,880
a small circle of insiders at First
2973
02:35:38,240 --> 02:35:44,240
Boston, he was the only one who truly
2974
02:35:40,880 --> 02:35:47,120
understood why it happened. He began
2975
02:35:44,240 --> 02:35:49,680
making calls. He wasn't offering high
2976
02:35:47,120 --> 02:35:52,479
salaries or flashy offices. He was
2977
02:35:49,680 --> 02:35:54,640
offering a chance to build a holy grail,
2978
02:35:52,479 --> 02:35:56,880
a financial firm where technology
2979
02:35:54,640 --> 02:35:59,920
governed the ego, not the other way
2980
02:35:56,880 --> 02:36:02,160
round. And he eventually found the right
2981
02:35:59,920 --> 02:36:05,160
people to help him build that holy
2982
02:36:02,160 --> 02:36:05,160
grail.
2983
02:36:05,760 --> 02:36:12,000
Rob Capito, the enforcer, a powerhouse
2984
02:36:09,840 --> 02:36:14,640
trader who knew the plumbing of the bomb
2985
02:36:12,000 --> 02:36:16,640
market better than anyone else. He
2986
02:36:14,640 --> 02:36:20,240
provided the muscle Larry needed to
2987
02:36:16,640 --> 02:36:23,359
execute the vision. Ben Golib, the
2988
02:36:20,240 --> 02:36:26,000
Oracle, a PhD with a mind like a
2989
02:36:23,359 --> 02:36:28,800
supercomput. While other bankers were
2990
02:36:26,000 --> 02:36:31,280
focused on lunch reservations, Golib was
2991
02:36:28,800 --> 02:36:33,920
thinking about value at risk and Monte
2992
02:36:31,280 --> 02:36:37,439
Carlo simulations.
2993
02:36:33,920 --> 02:36:39,840
Susan Wagner, the mastermind,
2994
02:36:37,439 --> 02:36:41,439
brilliant, calculating, and capable of
2995
02:36:39,840 --> 02:36:43,680
seeing structural flaws in a
2996
02:36:41,439 --> 02:36:46,000
multi-billion dollar merger before a
2997
02:36:43,680 --> 02:36:48,640
single paper was signed. Along with
2998
02:36:46,000 --> 02:36:50,880
Barbara Novik, Ralph Schloststein, Q
2999
02:36:48,640 --> 02:36:54,080
Freighter, and Keith Anderson, they
3000
02:36:50,880 --> 02:36:55,840
became the original eight. Frink wasn't
3001
02:36:54,080 --> 02:36:59,120
looking for bankers who would run after
3002
02:36:55,840 --> 02:37:02,319
the money. He wanted architects, people
3003
02:36:59,120 --> 02:37:04,319
who were tired of being blind.
3004
02:37:02,319 --> 02:37:06,960
When he found them, they met in living
3005
02:37:04,319 --> 02:37:08,800
rooms and coffee shops. They had the
3006
02:37:06,960 --> 02:37:11,840
blueprints for a system they called
3007
02:37:08,800 --> 02:37:14,560
Aladdin, an acronym for asset,
3008
02:37:11,840 --> 02:37:17,600
liability, debt, and derivative
3009
02:37:14,560 --> 02:37:20,080
investment network. It was designed to
3010
02:37:17,600 --> 02:37:22,240
be the unblinking eye Larry had dreamed
3011
02:37:20,080 --> 02:37:24,319
of in his exile.
3012
02:37:22,240 --> 02:37:27,280
But a brain without a body is just a
3013
02:37:24,319 --> 02:37:30,640
dream. To build Aladdin, they needed
3014
02:37:27,280 --> 02:37:32,399
hardware. They needed offices. And most
3015
02:37:30,640 --> 02:37:34,960
importantly, they needed the one thing
3016
02:37:32,399 --> 02:37:37,520
Larry's reputation had cost him.
3017
02:37:34,960 --> 02:37:39,760
Capital. Aladdin was not designed to
3018
02:37:37,520 --> 02:37:42,160
beat the market. It was designed to
3019
02:37:39,760 --> 02:37:45,040
understand it. But its real power
3020
02:37:42,160 --> 02:37:48,319
emerged when others started using it.
3021
02:37:45,040 --> 02:37:51,439
Banks, insurance companies, pension
3022
02:37:48,319 --> 02:37:53,600
funds, sovereign institutions. As
3023
02:37:51,439 --> 02:37:57,040
Aladdin spread, something subtle
3024
02:37:53,600 --> 02:38:00,160
happened. Risk stopped being subjective.
3025
02:37:57,040 --> 02:38:02,720
It became standardized. When Aladdin
3026
02:38:00,160 --> 02:38:06,760
flagged an asset as dangerous, entire
3027
02:38:02,720 --> 02:38:06,760
markets adjusted accordingly.
3028
02:38:06,880 --> 02:38:12,160
Not because Larry Frink said so, but
3029
02:38:09,280 --> 02:38:14,080
because the system trusted the model. At
3030
02:38:12,160 --> 02:38:16,560
that point, Black Rockck was no longer
3031
02:38:14,080 --> 02:38:19,600
just managing money. It was helping
3032
02:38:16,560 --> 02:38:22,000
define how risk itself was understood.
3033
02:38:19,600 --> 02:38:25,720
And whoever defines risk defines the
3034
02:38:22,000 --> 02:38:25,720
boundaries of decisionmaking.
3035
02:38:34,160 --> 02:38:39,520
Enter Steven Schwartzman. In 1988,
3036
02:38:37,439 --> 02:38:42,720
Schwartzman was the rising king of
3037
02:38:39,520 --> 02:38:46,399
private equity. His firm Blackstone was
3038
02:38:42,720 --> 02:38:49,040
aggressive, wealthy, and hungry.
3039
02:38:46,399 --> 02:38:52,160
The meeting was tense. Schwartzman knew
3040
02:38:49,040 --> 02:38:55,680
Larry's history. He knew about the 1986
3041
02:38:52,160 --> 02:38:59,359
disaster. But Larry didn't hide from it.
3042
02:38:55,680 --> 02:39:01,359
He used it as his primary selling point.
3043
02:38:59,359 --> 02:39:03,760
Because Larry had seen the end of the
3044
02:39:01,359 --> 02:39:06,319
world already, he knew exactly how the
3045
02:39:03,760 --> 02:39:08,080
lights went out. And because of that, he
3046
02:39:06,319 --> 02:39:10,240
was the only one who knew how to keep
3047
02:39:08,080 --> 02:39:12,960
them on.
3048
02:39:10,240 --> 02:39:14,960
Larry's pitch was revolutionary. He
3049
02:39:12,960 --> 02:39:18,160
didn't want to start a hedge fund. He
3050
02:39:14,960 --> 02:39:19,920
wanted to create a fiduciary company, a
3051
02:39:18,160 --> 02:39:22,160
firm that managed other people's money
3052
02:39:19,920 --> 02:39:25,359
with the same technological rigor
3053
02:39:22,160 --> 02:39:27,840
usually reserved for NASA. He asked for
3054
02:39:25,359 --> 02:39:30,560
a $5 million credit line and a
3055
02:39:27,840 --> 02:39:33,600
partnership. In exchange, Schwartzman
3056
02:39:30,560 --> 02:39:35,760
would own 50% of the new venture. He
3057
02:39:33,600 --> 02:39:38,240
knew he was buying cheap because he was
3058
02:39:35,760 --> 02:39:40,640
buying on a distressed asset, Frink's
3059
02:39:38,240 --> 02:39:42,560
damaged reputation.
3060
02:39:40,640 --> 02:39:44,640
But he did so betting on the idea that
3061
02:39:42,560 --> 02:39:49,280
the experience had turned Larry Frink
3062
02:39:44,640 --> 02:39:52,560
into some sort of financial genius.
3063
02:39:49,280 --> 02:39:55,200
The deal was done. On a Friday in March
3064
02:39:52,560 --> 02:39:57,040
1988, the team moved into a single
3065
02:39:55,200 --> 02:39:58,640
cramped room within Blackstone's
3066
02:39:57,040 --> 02:40:01,280
offices.
3067
02:39:58,640 --> 02:40:03,359
They were five computers, a few folding
3068
02:40:01,280 --> 02:40:06,000
chairs, and a mountain of cables on the
3069
02:40:03,359 --> 02:40:08,319
floor. They were under the Blackstone
3070
02:40:06,000 --> 02:40:10,880
umbrella, but Larry knew that this was
3071
02:40:08,319 --> 02:40:14,319
just a temporary shelter. He didn't just
3072
02:40:10,880 --> 02:40:16,960
want a department, he wanted an empire.
3073
02:40:14,319 --> 02:40:19,120
He had the money. He had the team. And
3074
02:40:16,960 --> 02:40:21,200
in the corner of that small room, the
3075
02:40:19,120 --> 02:40:24,000
first lines of code for Aladdin were
3076
02:40:21,200 --> 02:40:26,960
being written.
3077
02:40:24,000 --> 02:40:28,960
The information blindness was over. The
3078
02:40:26,960 --> 02:40:33,399
era of Black Rock, though it didn't have
3079
02:40:28,960 --> 02:40:33,399
that name yet, had begun.
3080
02:40:37,520 --> 02:40:42,720
The first office of Blackstone Financial
3081
02:40:39,840 --> 02:40:45,680
Management wasn't a glass tower. It was
3082
02:40:42,720 --> 02:40:47,920
a glorified closet. Because of the heat
3083
02:40:45,680 --> 02:40:49,680
generated by the early Sun Micro
3084
02:40:47,920 --> 02:40:51,439
Systemystems workstations, the
3085
02:40:49,680 --> 02:40:55,920
temperature in the room rarely dropped
3086
02:40:51,439 --> 02:40:57,760
below 80° 27° C.
3087
02:40:55,920 --> 02:41:00,160
While the rest of the Blackstone group
3088
02:40:57,760 --> 02:41:02,720
was out at expensive lunches closing
3089
02:41:00,160 --> 02:41:07,040
leveraged buyouts, Larry's original
3090
02:41:02,720 --> 02:41:09,359
eight were building a digital fortress.
3091
02:41:07,040 --> 02:41:11,760
They were the weirdos in the basement.
3092
02:41:09,359 --> 02:41:15,280
It was here that the name Aladdin became
3093
02:41:11,760 --> 02:41:18,080
a living thing. Every day, Ben Goler and
3094
02:41:15,280 --> 02:41:21,120
his team fed it data. Interest rates,
3095
02:41:18,080 --> 02:41:22,880
housing prices, historical crashes. They
3096
02:41:21,120 --> 02:41:28,280
were teaching the machine to be afraid
3097
02:41:22,880 --> 02:41:28,280
of everything Larry hadn't seen in 1986.
3098
02:41:31,920 --> 02:41:37,120
By 1992, the department inside
3099
02:41:34,640 --> 02:41:39,840
Blackstone was no longer a startup. It
3100
02:41:37,120 --> 02:41:43,200
was a powerhouse. Larry's team was
3101
02:41:39,840 --> 02:41:44,800
managing $17 billion.
3102
02:41:43,200 --> 02:41:47,120
They weren't just a side project
3103
02:41:44,800 --> 02:41:50,080
anymore. They were a significant engine
3104
02:41:47,120 --> 02:41:52,560
of Blackstone's growth. But with success
3105
02:41:50,080 --> 02:41:54,800
came a toxic byproduct,
3106
02:41:52,560 --> 02:41:57,359
identity confusion.
3107
02:41:54,800 --> 02:41:59,040
Clients were getting confused. They
3108
02:41:57,359 --> 02:42:01,520
would call Blackstone looking for
3109
02:41:59,040 --> 02:42:04,000
Larry's bond expertise or called Larry
3110
02:42:01,520 --> 02:42:06,479
looking for Schwarzman's buyouts. But
3111
02:42:04,000 --> 02:42:09,120
the friction went deeper than a name. It
3112
02:42:06,479 --> 02:42:11,680
was a war of philosophies. Schwartzman
3113
02:42:09,120 --> 02:42:14,960
was a dealmaker. He wanted to own
3114
02:42:11,680 --> 02:42:18,479
companies. Think was a fiduciary. He
3115
02:42:14,960 --> 02:42:20,560
wanted to manage risk for others.
3116
02:42:18,479 --> 02:42:22,960
The tension was similar to having two
3117
02:42:20,560 --> 02:42:25,280
predators in a cage too small to fit
3118
02:42:22,960 --> 02:42:28,399
both. The breaking point came over
3119
02:42:25,280 --> 02:42:30,720
equity. Larry wanted to use stock to
3120
02:42:28,399 --> 02:42:33,840
attract and keep the original eight and
3121
02:42:30,720 --> 02:42:36,000
new talent. Schwarzman, holding 50% of
3122
02:42:33,840 --> 02:42:38,479
the firm, didn't want to dilute his
3123
02:42:36,000 --> 02:42:40,720
state. The partnership that saved
3124
02:42:38,479 --> 02:42:46,640
Larry's career was now suffocating his
3125
02:42:40,720 --> 02:42:48,720
vision. In 1994, they reached the deal.
3126
02:42:46,640 --> 02:42:52,640
Schwarzman agreed to sell Blackstone
3127
02:42:48,720 --> 02:42:54,720
steak for $240 million. At the time, it
3128
02:42:52,640 --> 02:42:56,960
seemed like a win for Schwarzman, a
3129
02:42:54,720 --> 02:42:59,760
massive return on his $5 million
3130
02:42:56,960 --> 02:43:02,160
investment. It wasn't just about money.
3131
02:42:59,760 --> 02:43:04,399
It was about the spotlight. Schwarzman
3132
02:43:02,160 --> 02:43:06,960
was the king of Wall Street, but his
3133
02:43:04,399 --> 02:43:09,439
subtenant, Larry Frink, was the one the
3134
02:43:06,960 --> 02:43:12,960
New York Times wanted to interview. But
3135
02:43:09,439 --> 02:43:15,120
for Larry, it was the price of freedom.
3136
02:43:12,960 --> 02:43:17,359
Schwarzman would later call selling
3137
02:43:15,120 --> 02:43:20,080
Black Rock the worst mistake of my
3138
02:43:17,359 --> 02:43:22,640
career. For Larry, the divorce was the
3139
02:43:20,080 --> 02:43:25,200
moment the training wheels came off. He
3140
02:43:22,640 --> 02:43:28,240
was no longer under anyone's umbrella.
3141
02:43:25,200 --> 02:43:29,840
He was the CEO of an independent firm.
3142
02:43:28,240 --> 02:43:31,840
Now he just had to prove he could
3143
02:43:29,840 --> 02:43:34,840
survive the coming storm of the late
3144
02:43:31,840 --> 02:43:34,840
90s.
3145
02:43:42,479 --> 02:43:48,319
It is 2008. The financial world was
3146
02:43:45,760 --> 02:43:50,560
experiencing a heart attack. The
3147
02:43:48,319 --> 02:43:52,880
financial smoothies that mortgage back
3148
02:43:50,560 --> 02:43:55,200
securities Larry had helped create 30
3149
02:43:52,880 --> 02:43:57,920
years earlier had turned into a global
3150
02:43:55,200 --> 02:44:00,319
poison. Banks didn't know what they
3151
02:43:57,920 --> 02:44:02,880
owned, and more importantly, they didn't
3152
02:44:00,319 --> 02:44:04,960
know what their neighbors owned. Trust
3153
02:44:02,880 --> 02:44:06,960
had evaporated.
3154
02:44:04,960 --> 02:44:08,720
When the US government realized the
3155
02:44:06,960 --> 02:44:10,800
economy was on the brink of a total
3156
02:44:08,720 --> 02:44:14,720
blackout, they didn't call Goldman
3157
02:44:10,800 --> 02:44:17,120
Sachs. They didn't call JP Morgan. While
3158
02:44:14,720 --> 02:44:19,040
the CEOs of Layman and Merrill were
3159
02:44:17,120 --> 02:44:21,200
begging for government checks, Larry
3160
02:44:19,040 --> 02:44:23,439
Frink was the one the government called
3161
02:44:21,200 --> 02:44:25,680
to write the checks.
3162
02:44:23,439 --> 02:44:28,160
He was the only titan left standing with
3163
02:44:25,680 --> 02:44:30,240
a clean balance sheet.
3164
02:44:28,160 --> 02:44:32,319
The United States government didn't just
3165
02:44:30,240 --> 02:44:34,240
seek advice, it delegated
3166
02:44:32,319 --> 02:44:36,160
responsibility.
3167
02:44:34,240 --> 02:44:39,040
Black Rockck was tasked with valuing
3168
02:44:36,160 --> 02:44:41,279
assets no one understood, managing risks
3169
02:44:39,040 --> 02:44:43,200
no one could measure, and stabilizing
3170
02:44:41,279 --> 02:44:45,760
markets that were collapsing in real
3171
02:44:43,200 --> 02:44:48,080
time.
3172
02:44:45,760 --> 02:44:51,200
This wasn't a bailout. It was an
3173
02:44:48,080 --> 02:44:53,040
outsourcing of core sovereign functions.
3174
02:44:51,200 --> 02:44:54,960
For the first time, a private firm
3175
02:44:53,040 --> 02:44:58,000
played a central role in maintaining
3176
02:44:54,960 --> 02:45:00,000
global financial stability. Not through
3177
02:44:58,000 --> 02:45:02,319
political authority, but through
3178
02:45:00,000 --> 02:45:04,960
technical capability.
3179
02:45:02,319 --> 02:45:07,840
From that moment on, power was no longer
3180
02:45:04,960 --> 02:45:09,840
just about laws and institutions. It was
3181
02:45:07,840 --> 02:45:12,080
about who had the tools to see the
3182
02:45:09,840 --> 02:45:13,920
system clearly.
3183
02:45:12,080 --> 02:45:17,040
Black Rockck was hired to manage the
3184
02:45:13,920 --> 02:45:18,720
toxic waste of the crisis. They became
3185
02:45:17,040 --> 02:45:22,080
the official cleaner for the US
3186
02:45:18,720 --> 02:45:25,560
government, managing $130 billion of
3187
02:45:22,080 --> 02:45:25,560
troubled assets.
3188
02:45:25,600 --> 02:45:30,399
Suddenly, Larry Frink was the most
3189
02:45:28,080 --> 02:45:32,080
powerful man in the room, acting as an
3190
02:45:30,399 --> 02:45:33,600
adviser to the president and the
3191
02:45:32,080 --> 02:45:36,000
Treasury.
3192
02:45:33,600 --> 02:45:38,800
But while he was saving the system, he
3193
02:45:36,000 --> 02:45:41,040
saw a once-ina-lifetime opportunity to
3194
02:45:38,800 --> 02:45:43,520
dominate it. In the middle of the
3195
02:45:41,040 --> 02:45:46,240
carnage, Barclay's bank in the UK was
3196
02:45:43,520 --> 02:45:48,560
desperate for cash. They needed to sell
3197
02:45:46,240 --> 02:45:50,560
their crown jewel, a division called
3198
02:45:48,560 --> 02:45:52,960
Barclay's Global Investors, which
3199
02:45:50,560 --> 02:45:54,720
included a revolutionary product called
3200
02:45:52,960 --> 02:45:56,640
Eyesshares.
3201
02:45:54,720 --> 02:45:59,439
Eyessshares represented passive
3202
02:45:56,640 --> 02:46:02,479
investing, ETFs that track the whole
3203
02:45:59,439 --> 02:46:04,399
market rather than trying to beat it. It
3204
02:46:02,479 --> 02:46:07,120
was the ultimate expression of Larry's
3205
02:46:04,399 --> 02:46:09,760
philosophy. Stop betting on stars and
3206
02:46:07,120 --> 02:46:14,080
start owning the system. It was a
3207
02:46:09,760 --> 02:46:16,479
massive $13.5 billion gamble.
3208
02:46:14,080 --> 02:46:19,200
If the markets continue to fall, deal
3209
02:46:16,479 --> 02:46:21,439
could sink Black Rockck. But Larry knew
3210
02:46:19,200 --> 02:46:23,439
something the others didn't. He had
3211
02:46:21,439 --> 02:46:25,680
looked into the eye of Aladdin, and
3212
02:46:23,439 --> 02:46:28,560
Aladdin told him that the bottom was
3213
02:46:25,680 --> 02:46:31,439
near. With the acquisition of Eyesshares
3214
02:46:28,560 --> 02:46:34,160
in 2009, Black Rockck doubled its size
3215
02:46:31,439 --> 02:46:36,880
overnight. They weren't just a bond shop
3216
02:46:34,160 --> 02:46:39,840
anymore. They were now the largest money
3217
02:46:36,880 --> 02:46:42,560
manager on the planet. They had gone
3218
02:46:39,840 --> 02:46:44,720
into the crisis as a respected firm.
3219
02:46:42,560 --> 02:46:48,520
They came out of it as the shadow
3220
02:46:44,720 --> 02:46:48,520
government of finance.
3221
02:46:53,200 --> 02:46:58,479
By 2012, Larry Frink had built the
3222
02:46:55,760 --> 02:47:01,120
machine. He had the assets, the data,
3223
02:46:58,479 --> 02:47:04,399
and the influence. But he realized that
3224
02:47:01,120 --> 02:47:06,319
being king of Wall Street wasn't enough.
3225
02:47:04,399 --> 02:47:09,520
He wanted to change the way the world
3226
02:47:06,319 --> 02:47:11,359
did business. Every January, a ritual
3227
02:47:09,520 --> 02:47:14,479
began that would send tremors through
3228
02:47:11,359 --> 02:47:16,800
boardrooms from Detroit to Frankfurt.
3229
02:47:14,479 --> 02:47:19,359
Larry started writing letters. They
3230
02:47:16,800 --> 02:47:23,240
weren't just annual reports. They were
3231
02:47:19,359 --> 02:47:23,240
the Black Rockck Manifestos.
3232
02:47:23,840 --> 02:47:29,840
In 2018, he dropped a bomb. He told the
3233
02:47:27,600 --> 02:47:32,000
world's CEOs that if they wanted Black
3234
02:47:29,840 --> 02:47:35,040
Rockck's money, they had to prove they
3235
02:47:32,000 --> 02:47:37,840
served a social purpose. He wasn't just
3236
02:47:35,040 --> 02:47:41,840
asking for profits. He was asking for a
3237
02:47:37,840 --> 02:47:44,800
soul. He was mainstreaming ESG,
3238
02:47:41,840 --> 02:47:47,920
environmental, social, and governance.
3239
02:47:44,800 --> 02:47:50,960
And he was doing it with a $10 trillion
3240
02:47:47,920 --> 02:47:54,479
hammer. But Larry's new gospel didn't
3241
02:47:50,960 --> 02:47:56,399
sit well with everyone. By 2021, the
3242
02:47:54,479 --> 02:48:00,000
Golden Boy was finding himself in the
3243
02:47:56,399 --> 02:48:03,200
middle of a two-front war.
3244
02:48:00,000 --> 02:48:06,960
The ESG debate was never cultural. It
3245
02:48:03,200 --> 02:48:08,960
was economic. At its core, ESG was about
3246
02:48:06,960 --> 02:48:11,520
risk management, anticipating
3247
02:48:08,960 --> 02:48:13,680
regulation, climate disruption, and
3248
02:48:11,520 --> 02:48:15,840
social instability.
3249
02:48:13,680 --> 02:48:18,720
For Black Rockck, ignoring those factors
3250
02:48:15,840 --> 02:48:21,279
wasn't neutral. It was dangerous. But
3251
02:48:18,720 --> 02:48:24,000
when capital begins to price the future,
3252
02:48:21,279 --> 02:48:26,800
it also begins to shape it. That's why
3253
02:48:24,000 --> 02:48:29,840
the backlash was so intense.
3254
02:48:26,800 --> 02:48:31,680
To the left, Larry was a hypocrite. They
3255
02:48:29,840 --> 02:48:33,920
called him a greenwasher because Black
3256
02:48:31,680 --> 02:48:36,479
Rockck still held billions in oil and
3257
02:48:33,920 --> 02:48:38,560
gas stocks. To the right, he was a
3258
02:48:36,479 --> 02:48:40,479
globalist villain who was using other
3259
02:48:38,560 --> 02:48:43,359
people's money to push a radical
3260
02:48:40,479 --> 02:48:45,359
environmental agenda. The backlash
3261
02:48:43,359 --> 02:48:48,359
turned into a full-scale political
3262
02:48:45,359 --> 02:48:48,359
assault.
3263
02:48:48,479 --> 02:48:53,200
State treasurers in Florida, Texas, and
3264
02:48:50,960 --> 02:48:55,840
Mississippi began pulling billions out
3265
02:48:53,200 --> 02:48:58,479
of Black Rockck. They accused Larry of
3266
02:48:55,840 --> 02:49:00,720
boycotting energy and violating his duty
3267
02:48:58,479 --> 02:49:02,560
to investors.
3268
02:49:00,720 --> 02:49:05,279
For the first time, the man who had
3269
02:49:02,560 --> 02:49:10,600
mastered risk found himself in a risk he
3270
02:49:05,279 --> 02:49:10,600
couldn't calculate, the culture war.
3271
02:49:12,080 --> 02:49:17,040
He told a crowd in Aspen that he was
3272
02:49:14,319 --> 02:49:19,200
ashamed to be a part of the debate. He
3273
02:49:17,040 --> 02:49:22,080
even stopped using the term ESG
3274
02:49:19,200 --> 02:49:24,000
altogether, calling it weaponized.
3275
02:49:22,080 --> 02:49:26,720
He had tried to become the conscience of
3276
02:49:24,000 --> 02:49:29,600
capitalism. Instead, it became its most
3277
02:49:26,720 --> 02:49:31,600
controversial target. But even as the
3278
02:49:29,600 --> 02:49:36,560
politicians shouted and the protesters
3279
02:49:31,600 --> 02:49:38,319
marched, the assets kept growing.
3280
02:49:36,560 --> 02:49:40,319
Because in the end, whether you loved
3281
02:49:38,319 --> 02:49:44,359
him or hated him, you couldn't escape
3282
02:49:40,319 --> 02:49:44,359
the machine he built.
3283
02:49:52,160 --> 02:49:56,800
January 2026,
3284
02:49:54,399 --> 02:49:58,399
the number flashes on a terminal in
3285
02:49:56,800 --> 02:49:59,920
Black Rockck's Hudson Yards
3286
02:49:58,399 --> 02:50:02,479
headquarters.
3287
02:49:59,920 --> 02:50:05,600
$14 trillion.
3288
02:50:02,479 --> 02:50:07,279
It is a number so vast it defies human
3289
02:50:05,600 --> 02:50:09,760
comprehension.
3290
02:50:07,279 --> 02:50:12,240
If Larry Frink's assets under management
3291
02:50:09,760 --> 02:50:14,319
were a country's GDP, it would be the
3292
02:50:12,240 --> 02:50:16,720
third largest economy on Earth,
3293
02:50:14,319 --> 02:50:18,319
surpassed only by the United States and
3294
02:50:16,720 --> 02:50:20,560
China.
3295
02:50:18,319 --> 02:50:23,439
But as Larry looks out from his office,
3296
02:50:20,560 --> 02:50:25,279
he isn't looking at stock tickers. He is
3297
02:50:23,439 --> 02:50:28,279
looking at the very bones of
3298
02:50:25,279 --> 02:50:28,279
civilization.
3299
02:50:29,840 --> 02:50:36,240
In 2024, Larry made his final most
3300
02:50:33,279 --> 02:50:38,720
aggressive pivot. He realized that the
3301
02:50:36,240 --> 02:50:41,520
next decade won't be one with bits on a
3302
02:50:38,720 --> 02:50:44,720
screen, but with atoms in the ground.
3303
02:50:41,520 --> 02:50:47,200
With the 12.5 billion acquisition of
3304
02:50:44,720 --> 02:50:49,439
global infrastructure partners, Larry
3305
02:50:47,200 --> 02:50:52,960
signaled the end of the old Wall Street
3306
02:50:49,439 --> 02:50:55,439
era. Larry saw the AI revolution coming.
3307
02:50:52,960 --> 02:50:57,520
But he didn't buy the chip makers. He
3308
02:50:55,439 --> 02:51:00,520
bought the power plants that feed the
3309
02:50:57,520 --> 02:51:00,520
chips.
3310
02:51:03,439 --> 02:51:10,439
But every empire faces the same
3311
02:51:05,520 --> 02:51:10,439
inevitable question. Succession.
3312
02:51:11,840 --> 02:51:16,160
For years, Wall Street has whispered
3313
02:51:13,920 --> 02:51:19,439
about who could possibly replace the man
3314
02:51:16,160 --> 02:51:21,760
who is Black Rockck. Names like Rob
3315
02:51:19,439 --> 02:51:24,160
Capito, Mark Weberman, and Jennifer
3316
02:51:21,760 --> 02:51:27,200
Johnson swirl in the press. But the
3317
02:51:24,160 --> 02:51:29,920
truth is more complex. Larry hasn't just
3318
02:51:27,200 --> 02:51:32,160
built a company. He's built an organism.
3319
02:51:29,920 --> 02:51:35,040
A system where Aladdin, now a very
3320
02:51:32,160 --> 02:51:38,160
sophisticated AI entity, handles the
3321
02:51:35,040 --> 02:51:40,960
risk while a legion of 20,000 employees,
3322
02:51:38,160 --> 02:51:43,359
executes the vision. Aladdin is no
3323
02:51:40,960 --> 02:51:45,359
longer just a calculator. It is a
3324
02:51:43,359 --> 02:51:48,080
predictive engine that runs millions of
3325
02:51:45,359 --> 02:51:49,920
simulations every second, anticipating
3326
02:51:48,080 --> 02:51:53,760
everything from a war in the Middle East
3327
02:51:49,920 --> 02:51:56,160
to a crop failure in Brazil.
3328
02:51:53,760 --> 02:51:59,359
Some call him the king of the world.
3329
02:51:56,160 --> 02:52:01,600
Others call him the shadow architect.
3330
02:51:59,359 --> 02:52:03,680
But if you ask Larry, he'll tell you
3331
02:52:01,600 --> 02:52:05,920
he's still that kid from the Vanoise
3332
02:52:03,680 --> 02:52:10,040
shoe store, just trying to make sure
3333
02:52:05,920 --> 02:52:10,040
that the maths add up.
3334
02:52:10,319 --> 02:52:14,640
He took the greatest humiliation of his
3335
02:52:12,319 --> 02:52:16,720
life and turned it into a shield for the
3336
02:52:14,640 --> 02:52:18,720
global economy.
3337
02:52:16,720 --> 02:52:21,439
He taught the world that profit without
3338
02:52:18,720 --> 02:52:23,680
a plan is just a gamble and that in the
3339
02:52:21,439 --> 02:52:26,399
dark, the man with the flashlight is
3340
02:52:23,680 --> 02:52:28,479
king.
3341
02:52:26,399 --> 02:52:31,439
There is one financial question the
3342
02:52:28,479 --> 02:52:34,080
system cannot answer. What happens when
3343
02:52:31,439 --> 02:52:36,399
everyone measures risk the same way?
3344
02:52:34,080 --> 02:52:38,800
When models converge. When assumptions
3345
02:52:36,399 --> 02:52:40,560
align. When diversity of judgment
3346
02:52:38,800 --> 02:52:42,800
disappears.
3347
02:52:40,560 --> 02:52:45,760
A system optimized for stability can
3348
02:52:42,800 --> 02:52:47,760
become fragile. Not because it is wrong
3349
02:52:45,760 --> 02:52:49,439
but because it leaves no room for the
3350
02:52:47,760 --> 02:52:51,600
unexpected.
3351
02:52:49,439 --> 02:52:54,080
When the supervisor becomes invisible
3352
02:52:51,600 --> 02:52:57,200
and the rules are embedded in code,
3353
02:52:54,080 --> 02:53:00,479
accountability becomes harder to locate,
3354
02:52:57,200 --> 02:53:02,399
the system works until it doesn't. And
3355
02:53:00,479 --> 02:53:04,960
that's why Blackprop isn't just a
3356
02:53:02,399 --> 02:53:07,600
shareholder in your company. They are
3357
02:53:04,960 --> 02:53:10,399
the landlord of your power plant, the
3358
02:53:07,600 --> 02:53:12,720
owner of your airport, the architect of
3359
02:53:10,399 --> 02:53:14,720
your retirement. It is a level of
3360
02:53:12,720 --> 02:53:17,520
centralized influence the world has
3361
02:53:14,720 --> 02:53:20,800
never seen in a private individual.
3362
02:53:17,520 --> 02:53:22,880
Lawrence D.Fin didn't just build a bank.
3363
02:53:20,800 --> 02:53:24,560
He built the unblinking eye of
3364
02:53:22,880 --> 02:53:26,800
capitalism.
3365
02:53:24,560 --> 02:53:28,960
And as the world moves into the era of
3366
02:53:26,800 --> 02:53:31,840
AI, climate shift, and global
3367
02:53:28,960 --> 02:53:35,200
restructuring, one thing is certain,
3368
02:53:31,840 --> 02:53:39,800
Black Rockck will be there, watching,
3369
02:53:35,200 --> 02:53:39,800
calculating, and growing.
3370
02:54:59,760 --> 02:55:04,720
It's just a small plastic brick.
3371
02:55:03,200 --> 02:55:06,240
Lightweight,
3372
02:55:04,720 --> 02:55:09,920
simple,
3373
02:55:06,240 --> 02:55:14,240
unchanged since 1958.
3374
02:55:09,920 --> 02:55:16,319
And yet, it has built entire universes.
3375
02:55:14,240 --> 02:55:18,800
Lego constructions truly take us back to
3376
02:55:16,319 --> 02:55:20,560
childhood.
3377
02:55:18,800 --> 02:55:23,040
But they stay with us throughout our
3378
02:55:20,560 --> 02:55:25,520
entire lives. From bedrooms to
3379
02:55:23,040 --> 02:55:29,760
boardrooms, from playgrounds to
3380
02:55:25,520 --> 02:55:32,160
Hollywood, Lego has shaped generations.
3381
02:55:29,760 --> 02:55:34,000
>> When I design something from scratch, I
3382
02:55:32,160 --> 02:55:36,399
start with an idea that occurs to me at
3383
02:55:34,000 --> 02:55:38,160
any time of day.
3384
02:55:36,399 --> 02:55:41,200
I try to build it with Lego and see what
3385
02:55:38,160 --> 02:55:45,279
I come up with. In a global toy market
3386
02:55:41,200 --> 02:55:47,920
worth more than $120 billion, Lego
3387
02:55:45,279 --> 02:55:50,960
stands alone. A single company
3388
02:55:47,920 --> 02:55:53,359
controlling nearly one in every $10
3389
02:55:50,960 --> 02:55:55,520
spent on toys worldwide.
3390
02:55:53,359 --> 02:55:57,120
>> LEGO holds a leading position worldwide,
3391
02:55:55,520 --> 02:55:58,800
recognized above all for its
3392
02:55:57,120 --> 02:56:00,960
playability.
3393
02:55:58,800 --> 02:56:05,040
>> What if the most beloved toy in the
3394
02:56:00,960 --> 02:56:07,439
world almost didn't exist?
3395
02:56:05,040 --> 02:56:10,080
Discover the incredible journey of a
3396
02:56:07,439 --> 02:56:12,080
small, struggling carpentry shop. The
3397
02:56:10,080 --> 02:56:14,000
dared to dream bigger than anyone
3398
02:56:12,080 --> 02:56:16,479
thought possible.
3399
02:56:14,000 --> 02:56:19,520
>> This is the untold story of the
3400
02:56:16,479 --> 02:56:22,640
visionary who built Lego,
3401
02:56:19,520 --> 02:56:26,399
transforming simple wooden bricks into a
3402
02:56:22,640 --> 02:56:28,720
multibillion empire and forever changing
3403
02:56:26,399 --> 02:56:31,040
how we play.
3404
02:56:28,720 --> 02:56:34,240
But none of this began with billiondoll
3405
02:56:31,040 --> 02:56:38,080
charts or cinematic universes.
3406
02:56:34,240 --> 02:56:41,359
It began with a carpenter with a vision.
3407
02:56:38,080 --> 02:56:44,560
In a tiny Danish village, one man had a
3408
02:56:41,359 --> 02:56:47,560
dream. Building toys out of scraps of
3409
02:56:44,560 --> 02:56:47,560
wood.
3410
02:56:53,760 --> 02:57:00,560
Ole Kirk Christensen was born in 1891 in
3411
02:56:57,600 --> 02:57:04,560
western Denmark, a place defined by
3412
02:57:00,560 --> 02:57:07,279
silence, soil, and hard work.
3413
02:57:04,560 --> 02:57:09,439
He grew up poor, like most children in
3414
02:57:07,279 --> 02:57:10,720
the Jutland countryside.
3415
02:57:09,439 --> 02:57:13,439
But he learned the value of
3416
02:57:10,720 --> 02:57:16,960
craftsmanship early. When you made
3417
02:57:13,439 --> 02:57:19,680
something, it had to last.
3418
02:57:16,960 --> 02:57:21,920
He apprenticed as a carpenter. It was
3419
02:57:19,680 --> 02:57:25,520
not a really glamorous work, but
3420
02:57:21,920 --> 02:57:28,800
meticulous, honest, a craft that matched
3421
02:57:25,520 --> 02:57:31,279
Ola's character and manners.
3422
02:57:28,800 --> 02:57:34,640
Ola traveled through Denmark, Germany,
3423
02:57:31,279 --> 02:57:38,160
and Norway. Everywhere he went, he left
3424
02:57:34,640 --> 02:57:40,160
a reputation. Precise, patient,
3425
02:57:38,160 --> 02:57:43,760
relentless.
3426
02:57:40,160 --> 02:57:45,840
In 1916, Ole returned home and bought a
3427
02:57:43,760 --> 02:57:50,160
workshop in a place that barely existed
3428
02:57:45,840 --> 02:57:52,720
on the map, Bond. No shops, no train
3429
02:57:50,160 --> 02:57:54,720
station, just a handful of families
3430
02:57:52,720 --> 02:57:56,479
trying to survive the Danish winds.
3431
02:57:54,720 --> 02:57:59,680
>> Don't worry, I'm fine. I'm fine.
3432
02:57:56,479 --> 02:58:01,840
>> But 8 years later, disaster struck.
3433
02:57:59,680 --> 02:58:04,800
>> Oh. Oh. Oh no.
3434
02:58:01,840 --> 02:58:05,520
>> In 1924, a fire tore through his
3435
02:58:04,800 --> 02:58:08,399
workshop.
3436
02:58:05,520 --> 02:58:13,200
>> Oh god. No. Please no. Oh my god.
3437
02:58:08,399 --> 02:58:17,680
>> Everything burned. Tools, wood, orders,
3438
02:58:13,200 --> 02:58:21,760
and a lifetime of savings. All gone.
3439
02:58:17,680 --> 02:58:24,399
But Olair didn't quit. He rebuilt and
3440
02:58:21,760 --> 02:58:26,960
rebuilt bigger than before. Not because
3441
02:58:24,399 --> 02:58:30,880
it was safe, but because he refused to
3442
02:58:26,960 --> 02:58:33,760
let Bland disappear into the wind.
3443
02:58:30,880 --> 02:58:36,319
Then came the Great Depression. Houses
3444
02:58:33,760 --> 02:58:40,319
weren't being built. Doors weren't being
3445
02:58:36,319 --> 02:58:42,960
ordered. Bills weren't being paid.
3446
02:58:40,319 --> 02:58:46,000
Oair had workers depending on him,
3447
02:58:42,960 --> 02:58:48,880
families depending on him. So he did
3448
02:58:46,000 --> 02:58:52,720
something unexpected. He began crafting
3449
02:58:48,880 --> 02:58:56,319
small wooden toys. They were simple,
3450
02:58:52,720 --> 02:58:59,359
durable, and beautiful.
3451
02:58:56,319 --> 02:59:03,040
Locals mocked him. A grown man making
3452
02:58:59,359 --> 02:59:06,399
toys for children, you'll never survive.
3453
02:59:03,040 --> 02:59:08,399
But Ola believed that play and fun was a
3454
02:59:06,399 --> 02:59:11,520
serious business.
3455
02:59:08,399 --> 02:59:15,200
In 1934, he held a contest to name the
3456
02:59:11,520 --> 02:59:18,880
new toy company. He chose a short word,
3457
02:59:15,200 --> 02:59:22,560
Lego. It was not only a simple idea, but
3458
02:59:18,880 --> 02:59:25,279
a philosophy and a promise.
3459
02:59:22,560 --> 02:59:28,000
He hung a sign in the workshop. Only the
3460
02:59:25,279 --> 02:59:33,080
best is good enough. It wasn't
3461
02:59:28,000 --> 02:59:33,080
marketing. It was his identity.
3462
02:59:34,960 --> 02:59:38,240
>> Oh god, not again.
3463
02:59:36,479 --> 02:59:41,680
>> In 1942,
3464
02:59:38,240 --> 02:59:44,160
Ola faced another fire. This time it was
3465
02:59:41,680 --> 02:59:47,840
bigger, more devastating. Every
3466
02:59:44,160 --> 02:59:50,399
blueprint, every toy, every dream he had
3467
02:59:47,840 --> 02:59:53,200
turned into smoke.
3468
02:59:50,399 --> 02:59:56,800
But he had built himself for hardship.
3469
02:59:53,200 --> 02:59:59,920
And once more, he rebuilt the factory
3470
02:59:56,800 --> 03:00:03,920
stronger than the two previous ones.
3471
02:59:59,920 --> 03:00:05,920
In 1947, at the worst economic moment,
3472
03:00:03,920 --> 03:00:07,279
Ola made the riskiest choice of his
3473
03:00:05,920 --> 03:00:09,439
life.
3474
03:00:07,279 --> 03:00:12,640
He spent more than twice the company's
3475
03:00:09,439 --> 03:00:15,120
annual profits on a strange new machine.
3476
03:00:12,640 --> 03:00:16,960
One that worked not with wood, but with
3477
03:00:15,120 --> 03:00:19,600
plastic.
3478
03:00:16,960 --> 03:00:22,000
Retailers hated plastic. Parents
3479
03:00:19,600 --> 03:00:25,760
distrusted it. But Ola saw something
3480
03:00:22,000 --> 03:00:28,240
they didn't. Precision, repeatability,
3481
03:00:25,760 --> 03:00:30,479
and possibilities. Endless
3482
03:00:28,240 --> 03:00:34,240
possibilities.
3483
03:00:30,479 --> 03:00:36,319
Only 2 years later, in 1949, LEGO
3484
03:00:34,240 --> 03:00:39,600
released the first plastic bricks of its
3485
03:00:36,319 --> 03:00:45,080
history. They didn't click. They weren't
3486
03:00:39,600 --> 03:00:45,080
perfect, but they were the beginning.
3487
03:00:49,359 --> 03:00:53,680
>> The idea was good, but Ol and his team
3488
03:00:51,920 --> 03:00:56,000
faced setbacks while designing the
3489
03:00:53,680 --> 03:00:57,680
bricks that had cemented Lego's identity
3490
03:00:56,000 --> 03:01:01,439
through the years.
3491
03:00:57,680 --> 03:01:03,439
The plastic bricks didn't grip. This was
3492
03:01:01,439 --> 03:01:06,399
a major problem for a building set
3493
03:01:03,439 --> 03:01:09,359
because buildings collapsed. Towers fell
3494
03:01:06,399 --> 03:01:13,520
in front of their eyes. Apparently, Lego
3495
03:01:09,359 --> 03:01:15,040
wasn't created to build. And then in
3496
03:01:13,520 --> 03:01:17,279
1958,
3497
03:01:15,040 --> 03:01:19,600
everything changed.
3498
03:01:17,279 --> 03:01:21,680
>> Unlike 20 years ago, LEGO today allows
3499
03:01:19,600 --> 03:01:23,920
us to build many more things because
3500
03:01:21,680 --> 03:01:27,319
they have released more realistic colors
3501
03:01:23,920 --> 03:01:27,319
and shapes.
3502
03:01:27,680 --> 03:01:32,399
In the past, the pieces were mostly
3503
03:01:29,760 --> 03:01:34,479
square. Today, there is a much wider
3504
03:01:32,399 --> 03:01:36,640
variety of shapes, including more
3505
03:01:34,479 --> 03:01:39,439
rounded elements, which allow us to
3506
03:01:36,640 --> 03:01:41,200
create more ergonomic forms, ones that
3507
03:01:39,439 --> 03:01:43,439
more closely resemble the kinds of
3508
03:01:41,200 --> 03:01:45,680
buildings and structures we see in
3509
03:01:43,439 --> 03:01:48,720
everyday life.
3510
03:01:45,680 --> 03:01:51,920
>> Engineers at LEGO perfected a simple but
3511
03:01:48,720 --> 03:01:53,920
ingenious solution. hollow tubes inside
3512
03:01:51,920 --> 03:01:56,160
the brick.
3513
03:01:53,920 --> 03:01:58,800
Paired with the studs on top, the
3514
03:01:56,160 --> 03:02:02,640
geometry created what LEGO calls clutch
3515
03:01:58,800 --> 03:02:04,880
power. Not too tight, not too loose,
3516
03:02:02,640 --> 03:02:06,800
just perfect.
3517
03:02:04,880 --> 03:02:09,439
This was not just an adjustment or
3518
03:02:06,800 --> 03:02:12,560
improvement. It was the birth of what we
3519
03:02:09,439 --> 03:02:15,200
know today as a Lego brick. The brick
3520
03:02:12,560 --> 03:02:17,120
that today can still be used with the
3521
03:02:15,200 --> 03:02:19,279
modern ones.
3522
03:02:17,120 --> 03:02:22,720
the brick that was the foundation of a
3523
03:02:19,279 --> 03:02:26,240
company that still makes history today.
3524
03:02:22,720 --> 03:02:28,240
That same year, Lego filed the patent.
3525
03:02:26,240 --> 03:02:30,640
They had something worth protecting, and
3526
03:02:28,240 --> 03:02:33,680
Ole knew that sooner or later, it would
3527
03:02:30,640 --> 03:02:37,359
be replicated.
3528
03:02:33,680 --> 03:02:41,040
It was January the 28th, 1958 when the
3529
03:02:37,359 --> 03:02:43,680
patent was filed. Later that year, Ole
3530
03:02:41,040 --> 03:02:46,880
Christensen passed away.
3531
03:02:43,680 --> 03:02:50,760
And sadly, he never lived to see how far
3532
03:02:46,880 --> 03:02:50,760
his brick would travel.
3533
03:02:58,240 --> 03:03:03,760
After his father died, Godfred Kirk
3534
03:03:00,800 --> 03:03:06,000
Christensen stepped in. He wasn't
3535
03:03:03,760 --> 03:03:08,960
inheriting the company. He was
3536
03:03:06,000 --> 03:03:11,520
inheriting a philosophy, one he had been
3537
03:03:08,960 --> 03:03:14,160
raised with. His father wasn't around
3538
03:03:11,520 --> 03:03:16,240
anymore, but the original spirit of Lego
3539
03:03:14,160 --> 03:03:18,240
lived on in the second Christensen
3540
03:03:16,240 --> 03:03:20,560
generation.
3541
03:03:18,240 --> 03:03:22,720
But he also had something to add.
3542
03:03:20,560 --> 03:03:26,080
Godfred believed Lego should be more
3543
03:03:22,720 --> 03:03:28,399
than toys. It should be a system. A
3544
03:03:26,080 --> 03:03:32,560
system where every piece connected with
3545
03:03:28,399 --> 03:03:34,720
every other piece across every set. This
3546
03:03:32,560 --> 03:03:37,920
created a language of creativity and
3547
03:03:34,720 --> 03:03:39,439
possibilities. And a single idea changed
3548
03:03:37,920 --> 03:03:41,920
everything.
3549
03:03:39,439 --> 03:03:45,840
Suddenly, LEGO wasn't a collection of
3550
03:03:41,920 --> 03:03:48,319
toys, but an entire universe.
3551
03:03:45,840 --> 03:03:50,319
The company began to grow far beyond its
3552
03:03:48,319 --> 03:03:54,000
original frontiers.
3553
03:03:50,319 --> 03:03:58,800
During the 1960s and '7s, Lego expanded
3554
03:03:54,000 --> 03:04:01,600
across Europe, Germany, Sweden, the UK.
3555
03:03:58,800 --> 03:04:05,040
Bund, once a small village, became a
3556
03:04:01,600 --> 03:04:07,680
global hub of play. Lego then built its
3557
03:04:05,040 --> 03:04:09,920
own airport, factories, and distribution
3558
03:04:07,680 --> 03:04:12,560
centers. In the world of construction
3559
03:04:09,920 --> 03:04:15,359
toys, we know that Lego isn't the only
3560
03:04:12,560 --> 03:04:19,840
brand around.
3561
03:04:15,359 --> 03:04:22,479
What Lego provides is a quality product.
3562
03:04:19,840 --> 03:04:25,359
Maybe one part is wrong for every 10,000
3563
03:04:22,479 --> 03:04:28,080
or 100,000 items. And if you are missing
3564
03:04:25,359 --> 03:04:30,240
an item from a box, or if it is faulty,
3565
03:04:28,080 --> 03:04:31,760
the company's after sales service will
3566
03:04:30,240 --> 03:04:35,160
not question the fact that you are
3567
03:04:31,760 --> 03:04:35,160
missing a part.
3568
03:04:35,920 --> 03:04:42,240
And then the magic happened.
3569
03:04:39,600 --> 03:04:46,479
LEGO introduced something no toy company
3570
03:04:42,240 --> 03:04:50,240
had done at scale. Fully themed worlds.
3571
03:04:46,479 --> 03:04:51,600
Space town castles.
3572
03:04:50,240 --> 03:04:54,080
Children weren't just building
3573
03:04:51,600 --> 03:04:55,920
structures anymore. They were building
3574
03:04:54,080 --> 03:04:59,520
stories.
3575
03:04:55,920 --> 03:05:01,359
In 1978, LEGO released its most iconic
3576
03:04:59,520 --> 03:05:02,960
invention since the brick, the
3577
03:05:01,359 --> 03:05:06,000
minifigure.
3578
03:05:02,960 --> 03:05:10,080
It had a simple face, hands shaped like
3579
03:05:06,000 --> 03:05:12,560
a sea and feet made to stand on studs. A
3580
03:05:10,080 --> 03:05:15,520
tiny character that let kids project
3581
03:05:12,560 --> 03:05:18,560
themselves into entire universes.
3582
03:05:15,520 --> 03:05:22,640
Stories now had heroes and Lego had a
3583
03:05:18,560 --> 03:05:24,560
heartbeat. In the late 1970s, Lego was
3584
03:05:22,640 --> 03:05:28,640
already run by the third Christensen
3585
03:05:24,560 --> 03:05:30,800
generation. Ole's grandson killed began
3586
03:05:28,640 --> 03:05:34,319
shaping the company into the global
3587
03:05:30,800 --> 03:05:36,800
powerhouse we know today. He did so by
3588
03:05:34,319 --> 03:05:39,520
creating more sophisticated lines,
3589
03:05:36,800 --> 03:05:41,840
bringing in new universes, technic
3590
03:05:39,520 --> 03:05:45,439
brought mechanics, pirates brought
3591
03:05:41,840 --> 03:05:48,080
adventure, and trains brought motion. By
3592
03:05:45,439 --> 03:05:51,040
the late 20th century, the global toy
3593
03:05:48,080 --> 03:05:53,840
market was becoming massive. Tens of
3594
03:05:51,040 --> 03:05:56,240
billions of dollars a year worth.
3595
03:05:53,840 --> 03:05:59,040
The United States spent more on toys
3596
03:05:56,240 --> 03:06:01,920
than any country on Earth. And China
3597
03:05:59,040 --> 03:06:03,920
produced most of them, nearly 3/4 of the
3598
03:06:01,920 --> 03:06:06,880
world's total.
3599
03:06:03,920 --> 03:06:12,840
In this booming landscape, Lego wasn't
3600
03:06:06,880 --> 03:06:12,840
just another toy. It was the toy.
3601
03:06:17,359 --> 03:06:23,200
By the late 1990s, Lego was flying high.
3602
03:06:21,200 --> 03:06:25,439
It had become one of the most admired
3603
03:06:23,200 --> 03:06:27,600
companies in Europe. A creative
3604
03:06:25,439 --> 03:06:30,000
powerhouse built on the philosophy of
3605
03:06:27,600 --> 03:06:32,080
imagination and creation. We're not
3606
03:06:30,000 --> 03:06:33,840
focused only on childhood, but on
3607
03:06:32,080 --> 03:06:36,080
something that has quite literally built
3608
03:06:33,840 --> 03:06:38,240
us, pun intended, shaping our
3609
03:06:36,080 --> 03:06:40,960
personalities through Lego from an early
3610
03:06:38,240 --> 03:06:45,279
age. Those memories became a foundation
3611
03:06:40,960 --> 03:06:47,200
we've kept building on over time.
3612
03:06:45,279 --> 03:06:49,120
That's why exhibitions like this bring
3613
03:06:47,200 --> 03:06:52,080
us straight back to childhood. The
3614
03:06:49,120 --> 03:06:54,160
audience here is very diverse, but once
3615
03:06:52,080 --> 03:06:56,399
people walk in, they all become the boy
3616
03:06:54,160 --> 03:06:59,359
or girl they once were.
3617
03:06:56,399 --> 03:07:01,680
>> But it's not all gold that glitters.
3618
03:06:59,359 --> 03:07:04,640
Under the surface, something dangerous
3619
03:07:01,680 --> 03:07:06,880
was creeping in. The toy market was
3620
03:07:04,640 --> 03:07:08,880
changing fast. Children were spending
3621
03:07:06,880 --> 03:07:11,760
more and more time with video games and
3622
03:07:08,880 --> 03:07:14,160
early computer entertainment. Sony's
3623
03:07:11,760 --> 03:07:15,680
PlayStation, Nintendo, and Hasbro's
3624
03:07:14,160 --> 03:07:19,040
electronic toys were capturing
3625
03:07:15,680 --> 03:07:23,439
attention. And LEGO, determined not to
3626
03:07:19,040 --> 03:07:25,920
fall behind, expanded too far, too fast.
3627
03:07:23,439 --> 03:07:28,080
Throughout the 1990s, LEGO began
3628
03:07:25,920 --> 03:07:30,960
introducing thousands of completely new
3629
03:07:28,080 --> 03:07:33,840
pieces, specialized parts that not only
3630
03:07:30,960 --> 03:07:37,680
worked in one set, a single year could
3631
03:07:33,840 --> 03:07:39,840
bring more than 350 new designs. Each of
3632
03:07:37,680 --> 03:07:42,319
them costing tens of thousands of
3633
03:07:39,840 --> 03:07:44,479
dollars in steel machining and precision
3634
03:07:42,319 --> 03:07:46,399
engineering.
3635
03:07:44,479 --> 03:07:48,640
In 2002,
3636
03:07:46,399 --> 03:07:51,600
Lego had more than 12,000 active
3637
03:07:48,640 --> 03:07:54,080
elements. The system of play, once
3638
03:07:51,600 --> 03:07:57,359
simple and universal, was becoming
3639
03:07:54,080 --> 03:08:00,399
chaotic and difficult to follow. LEGO
3640
03:07:57,359 --> 03:08:02,560
also tried becoming a lifestyle brand.
3641
03:08:00,399 --> 03:08:05,680
New ventures appeared everywhere.
3642
03:08:02,560 --> 03:08:07,920
Clothing lines, theme parks, homegoods,
3643
03:08:05,680 --> 03:08:09,600
cartoon series, even watches and
3644
03:08:07,920 --> 03:08:11,520
sneakers.
3645
03:08:09,600 --> 03:08:14,080
But these projects drained resources
3646
03:08:11,520 --> 03:08:19,600
without reinforcing the core product.
3647
03:08:14,080 --> 03:08:22,000
the brick. And between 1999 and 2003,
3648
03:08:19,600 --> 03:08:24,160
LEGO sales collapsed.
3649
03:08:22,000 --> 03:08:26,880
During these years, the company went
3650
03:08:24,160 --> 03:08:30,080
from doubledigit growth to struggling.
3651
03:08:26,880 --> 03:08:33,439
And by 2003, the company was losing the
3652
03:08:30,080 --> 03:08:36,319
equivalent of $1 million a day. In a
3653
03:08:33,439 --> 03:08:40,160
global toy market still worth more than
3654
03:08:36,319 --> 03:08:42,560
$70 billion US at the time, Lego, once
3655
03:08:40,160 --> 03:08:45,040
the king of the toy box, was only a few
3656
03:08:42,560 --> 03:08:48,080
steps away from bankruptcy.
3657
03:08:45,040 --> 03:08:52,399
Times were dark, but a spark of genius
3658
03:08:48,080 --> 03:08:54,720
appeared. In 1999, LEGO signed its first
3659
03:08:52,399 --> 03:08:56,560
ever licensing deal with no other than
3660
03:08:54,720 --> 03:08:59,600
Lucasfilm.
3661
03:08:56,560 --> 03:09:02,880
The timing was perfect. Star Wars
3662
03:08:59,600 --> 03:09:05,680
Episode 1 was about to hit theaters.
3663
03:09:02,880 --> 03:09:08,640
Hype was global and the first Lego Star
3664
03:09:05,680 --> 03:09:11,920
Wars sets were instant hits. Not just
3665
03:09:08,640 --> 03:09:14,000
with children, with adults. Collectors
3666
03:09:11,920 --> 03:09:16,080
lined up to buy the X-wing, the
3667
03:09:14,000 --> 03:09:19,359
Snowspeeder, or the first Millennium
3668
03:09:16,080 --> 03:09:22,240
Falcon. For the first time in LEGO's
3669
03:09:19,359 --> 03:09:24,960
history, adults, including those in
3670
03:09:22,240 --> 03:09:25,920
their 30s and 40s, were buying sets for
3671
03:09:24,960 --> 03:09:27,840
themselves.
3672
03:09:25,920 --> 03:09:30,560
>> The adult fan of Lego community is
3673
03:09:27,840 --> 03:09:32,640
getting bigger. This is because Lego is
3674
03:09:30,560 --> 03:09:35,200
not the same as it was 20 or 30 years
3675
03:09:32,640 --> 03:09:37,439
ago.
3676
03:09:35,200 --> 03:09:39,359
Before, Lego was only seen as a toy to
3677
03:09:37,439 --> 03:09:42,359
play with when it was cold and you were
3678
03:09:39,359 --> 03:09:42,359
indoors.
3679
03:09:42,640 --> 03:09:47,520
Today, Lego is much more than a toy.
3680
03:09:45,120 --> 03:09:49,840
It's used to create logos, to design
3681
03:09:47,520 --> 03:09:52,800
dynamic group activities, and it also
3682
03:09:49,840 --> 03:09:55,040
represents a shift in how we see it.
3683
03:09:52,800 --> 03:09:57,439
years ago, if you said you played with
3684
03:09:55,040 --> 03:09:59,920
Lego or built Lego, you almost had to
3685
03:09:57,439 --> 03:10:01,680
explain yourself that you were at home
3686
03:09:59,920 --> 03:10:04,479
playing with little figures making up
3687
03:10:01,680 --> 03:10:06,319
battles. What we do today is different.
3688
03:10:04,479 --> 03:10:10,080
We come together as a community of
3689
03:10:06,319 --> 03:10:11,920
adults and LEGO has recognized that.
3690
03:10:10,080 --> 03:10:14,240
That's why more and more products are
3691
03:10:11,920 --> 03:10:16,880
now designed specifically for adults,
3692
03:10:14,240 --> 03:10:19,200
more complex to build, and also more
3693
03:10:16,880 --> 03:10:21,040
expensive.
3694
03:10:19,200 --> 03:10:23,680
followed.
3695
03:10:21,040 --> 03:10:26,800
>> This kid demographic would later become
3696
03:10:23,680 --> 03:10:29,680
one of LEGO's most profitable segments.
3697
03:10:26,800 --> 03:10:32,880
More licenses followed: Harry Potter,
3698
03:10:29,680 --> 03:10:34,880
Spider-Man, Batman, Indiana Jones, and
3699
03:10:32,880 --> 03:10:36,560
later the newest Marvel Cinematic
3700
03:10:34,880 --> 03:10:38,160
Universe.
3701
03:10:36,560 --> 03:10:41,520
Even though LEGO learned that
3702
03:10:38,160 --> 03:10:44,800
storytelling sells, in 2004, losses were
3703
03:10:41,520 --> 03:10:47,279
mounting and survival was uncertain.
3704
03:10:44,800 --> 03:10:48,880
And then the company made a radical
3705
03:10:47,279 --> 03:10:51,200
decision.
3706
03:10:48,880 --> 03:10:53,600
For the first time in its history, the
3707
03:10:51,200 --> 03:10:57,279
company appointed a CEO from outside the
3708
03:10:53,600 --> 03:10:59,680
Christensen family, Jurgen Victor,
3709
03:10:57,279 --> 03:11:03,520
a 35-year-old former McKenzie
3710
03:10:59,680 --> 03:11:05,040
consultant. He was calm, precise,
3711
03:11:03,520 --> 03:11:08,720
analytical,
3712
03:11:05,040 --> 03:11:12,560
and brutally honest. His diagnosis was
3713
03:11:08,720 --> 03:11:14,319
simple. Lego had forgotten what made it
3714
03:11:12,560 --> 03:11:16,640
Lego.
3715
03:11:14,319 --> 03:11:18,880
Kutto cut the number of unique elements
3716
03:11:16,640 --> 03:11:21,279
by nearly 50%.
3717
03:11:18,880 --> 03:11:24,479
He sold off the theme parks. He shut
3718
03:11:21,279 --> 03:11:26,640
down unprofitable production facilities.
3719
03:11:24,479 --> 03:11:29,279
He centralized supply chains,
3720
03:11:26,640 --> 03:11:31,600
standardized materials, and brought back
3721
03:11:29,279 --> 03:11:34,399
discipline to the system. But more
3722
03:11:31,600 --> 03:11:37,960
important, he put the brick back at the
3723
03:11:34,399 --> 03:11:37,960
center of the company.
3724
03:11:39,600 --> 03:11:44,560
This turnaround didn't happen in
3725
03:11:41,439 --> 03:11:47,840
isolation. The global toy industry was
3726
03:11:44,560 --> 03:11:50,399
undergoing a seismic change. China was
3727
03:11:47,840 --> 03:11:52,880
producing nearly 75% of the world's
3728
03:11:50,399 --> 03:11:56,080
toys, being the largest manufacturing
3729
03:11:52,880 --> 03:11:58,160
consolidation in toy history.
3730
03:11:56,080 --> 03:12:00,720
Meanwhile, the United States had become
3731
03:11:58,160 --> 03:12:02,960
the single largest consumer, responsible
3732
03:12:00,720 --> 03:12:05,960
for nearly onethird of the global toy
3733
03:12:02,960 --> 03:12:05,960
spending.
3734
03:12:06,240 --> 03:12:13,600
By 2005, the toy market was worth close
3735
03:12:09,760 --> 03:12:16,720
to $80 billion US, but it was brutally
3736
03:12:13,600 --> 03:12:19,439
competitive as well. Seasonality was
3737
03:12:16,720 --> 03:12:22,080
extreme. Nearly half of the annual toy
3738
03:12:19,439 --> 03:12:24,640
sales occurred in just 3 months from
3739
03:12:22,080 --> 03:12:27,760
October to December.
3740
03:12:24,640 --> 03:12:29,840
Companies lived or died by Christmas.
3741
03:12:27,760 --> 03:12:32,720
Mattel was battling declining Barbie
3742
03:12:29,840 --> 03:12:34,080
sales. Hasbro was betting its future on
3743
03:12:32,720 --> 03:12:35,760
Transformers and board game
3744
03:12:34,080 --> 03:12:37,520
reinventions.
3745
03:12:35,760 --> 03:12:40,479
Electronics were eating market share
3746
03:12:37,520 --> 03:12:44,960
across every age group. In this
3747
03:12:40,479 --> 03:12:50,840
scenario, Lego rebuilt and refocused and
3748
03:12:44,960 --> 03:12:50,840
then began rising above all of them.
3749
03:12:54,000 --> 03:13:01,680
Between 2008 and 2015, LEGO entered a
3750
03:12:58,240 --> 03:13:04,560
new era, a renaissance driven by design,
3751
03:13:01,680 --> 03:13:06,720
storytelling, digital engagement, and
3752
03:13:04,560 --> 03:13:08,560
adult passion.
3753
03:13:06,720 --> 03:13:11,520
The company launched the ultimate
3754
03:13:08,560 --> 03:13:15,040
collector series, producing the largest,
3755
03:13:11,520 --> 03:13:17,200
most detailed models in toy history.
3756
03:13:15,040 --> 03:13:20,479
LEGO architecture brought landmarks to
3757
03:13:17,200 --> 03:13:23,040
coffee tables. Modular buildings turned
3758
03:13:20,479 --> 03:13:25,200
living rooms into miniature cities, and
3759
03:13:23,040 --> 03:13:28,239
adults were no longer hiding their Lego
3760
03:13:25,200 --> 03:13:30,720
hobby, but embracing it. My story with
3761
03:13:28,239 --> 03:13:32,960
Lego began in the early '9s when I was a
3762
03:13:30,720 --> 03:13:35,120
small child.
3763
03:13:32,960 --> 03:13:36,960
I started playing, but then I stopped
3764
03:13:35,120 --> 03:13:38,640
for a while.
3765
03:13:36,960 --> 03:13:40,720
This is what most of us want to do when
3766
03:13:38,640 --> 03:13:45,319
we are teenagers, to do other hobbies
3767
03:13:40,720 --> 03:13:45,319
and spend less time playing with Lego.
3768
03:13:45,920 --> 03:13:51,279
After that, when I was in my early 20s,
3769
03:13:47,840 --> 03:13:53,359
I started collecting Lego. I met people
3770
03:13:51,279 --> 03:13:55,920
from the Valencian community and founded
3771
03:13:53,359 --> 03:13:57,840
Valere.
3772
03:13:55,920 --> 03:14:00,399
That eventually led me to a television
3773
03:13:57,840 --> 03:14:02,560
show where I took part and won. From
3774
03:14:00,399 --> 03:14:06,040
there, companies began approaching me to
3775
03:14:02,560 --> 03:14:06,040
develop projects.
3776
03:14:07,359 --> 03:14:11,040
At first, this hadn't even occurred to
3777
03:14:09,359 --> 03:14:13,439
me,
3778
03:14:11,040 --> 03:14:15,760
but I started to see a growing demand.
3779
03:14:13,439 --> 03:14:17,920
Whether it was building a corporate kit,
3780
03:14:15,760 --> 03:14:21,200
like a transport company's truck, or
3781
03:14:17,920 --> 03:14:22,960
even a company's logistics headquarters,
3782
03:14:21,200 --> 03:14:24,960
this market opened up a professional
3783
03:14:22,960 --> 03:14:26,960
path for me.
3784
03:14:24,960 --> 03:14:30,399
It supports me financially, but more
3785
03:14:26,960 --> 03:14:32,319
importantly, it's deeply rewarding.
3786
03:14:30,399 --> 03:14:34,000
Many of these projects challenge me to
3787
03:14:32,319 --> 03:14:35,439
build things I would never choose on my
3788
03:14:34,000 --> 03:14:38,239
own.
3789
03:14:35,439 --> 03:14:40,080
But once a challenge is set, build this,
3790
03:14:38,239 --> 03:14:42,880
my mind immediately starts collecting
3791
03:14:40,080 --> 03:14:44,880
ideas, figuring out how to shape them
3792
03:14:42,880 --> 03:14:48,760
and bring the project to life in the
3793
03:14:44,880 --> 03:14:48,760
best possible way.
3794
03:14:55,279 --> 03:15:02,479
fan events, engineering cups, a global
3795
03:14:58,479 --> 03:15:06,080
movement emerged. By 2014, adults
3796
03:15:02,479 --> 03:15:08,560
accounted for nearly 1/3 of Lego sales.
3797
03:15:06,080 --> 03:15:10,800
>> To anyone who thinks Lego is only for
3798
03:15:08,560 --> 03:15:12,319
children, I'd say come and see the
3799
03:15:10,800 --> 03:15:14,160
exhibition.
3800
03:15:12,319 --> 03:15:16,960
See what we're capable of creating with
3801
03:15:14,160 --> 03:15:20,960
Lego pieces and how imagination develops
3802
03:15:16,960 --> 03:15:23,120
in both children and adults.
3803
03:15:20,960 --> 03:15:26,000
Children work within certain limits and
3804
03:15:23,120 --> 03:15:28,640
see things differently, but adults with
3805
03:15:26,000 --> 03:15:31,279
a wider range of colors, shapes, and
3806
03:15:28,640 --> 03:15:34,479
ways to use the pieces can explore just
3807
03:15:31,279 --> 03:15:36,479
how much is possible.
3808
03:15:34,479 --> 03:15:39,359
>> It was a radical shift in the economics
3809
03:15:36,479 --> 03:15:41,200
of play. And then came the cultural
3810
03:15:39,359 --> 03:15:44,239
explosion.
3811
03:15:41,200 --> 03:15:47,359
In 2014, The Lego Movie shattered
3812
03:15:44,239 --> 03:15:50,720
expectations, earning nearly $500
3813
03:15:47,359 --> 03:15:53,600
million US at the box office.
3814
03:15:50,720 --> 03:15:57,200
What started as a toy was now pop
3815
03:15:53,600 --> 03:15:59,359
culture. By the mid 2010s,
3816
03:15:57,200 --> 03:16:02,319
Lego was the world's most valuable toy
3817
03:15:59,359 --> 03:16:04,960
company, even surpassing Mattel, Hasbro,
3818
03:16:02,319 --> 03:16:07,520
and every other competitor.
3819
03:16:04,960 --> 03:16:10,960
The brick that started it all was no
3820
03:16:07,520 --> 03:16:13,960
longer just a product. It was a global
3821
03:16:10,960 --> 03:16:13,960
icon.
3822
03:16:15,920 --> 03:16:20,239
The LEGO Group stands today as one of
3823
03:16:18,239 --> 03:16:22,239
the most efficient, profitable, and
3824
03:16:20,239 --> 03:16:24,720
culturally influential toy companies on
3825
03:16:22,239 --> 03:16:26,960
Earth. Its factories run with near
3826
03:16:24,720 --> 03:16:29,120
perfect precision.
3827
03:16:26,960 --> 03:16:32,319
Its design teams develop thousands of
3828
03:16:29,120 --> 03:16:34,319
prototypes each year. Its supply chain
3829
03:16:32,319 --> 03:16:37,120
delivers billions of bricks that must
3830
03:16:34,319 --> 03:16:39,040
all fit together flawlessly across
3831
03:16:37,120 --> 03:16:41,680
decades.
3832
03:16:39,040 --> 03:16:45,760
In a global toy market worth roughly
3833
03:16:41,680 --> 03:16:50,000
$120 billion a year, Lego commands
3834
03:16:45,760 --> 03:16:52,960
nearly 9% of all worldwide toy sales. No
3835
03:16:50,000 --> 03:16:55,760
other toy brand, not Barbie, not Marvel
3836
03:16:52,960 --> 03:16:57,920
figures, not Nintendo merchandise,
3837
03:16:55,760 --> 03:17:01,600
maintains such consistency across
3838
03:16:57,920 --> 03:17:03,680
continents, genders, and generations.
3839
03:17:01,600 --> 03:17:06,800
And unlike most toy companies that
3840
03:17:03,680 --> 03:17:08,160
outsource manufacturing, LEGO controls a
3841
03:17:06,800 --> 03:17:11,359
significant portion of its own
3842
03:17:08,160 --> 03:17:13,920
production with major hubs in Denmark,
3843
03:17:11,359 --> 03:17:15,920
Hungary, Mexico, China, and the Czech
3844
03:17:13,920 --> 03:17:18,640
Republic.
3845
03:17:15,920 --> 03:17:21,200
This vertical integration reduces risk,
3846
03:17:18,640 --> 03:17:23,120
stabilizes quality, and protects one of
3847
03:17:21,200 --> 03:17:26,399
the most important values in the
3848
03:17:23,120 --> 03:17:28,640
company's DNA, precision.
3849
03:17:26,399 --> 03:17:31,040
Every Lego brick must be manufactured
3850
03:17:28,640 --> 03:17:34,160
with tolerances thinner than a strand of
3851
03:17:31,040 --> 03:17:37,600
hair. If the clutch is too tight, the
3852
03:17:34,160 --> 03:17:40,800
model breaks. If it's too loose, towers
3853
03:17:37,600 --> 03:17:44,239
collapse. Across billions of pieces,
3854
03:17:40,800 --> 03:17:47,680
perfection is not an ambition. It is an
3855
03:17:44,239 --> 03:17:49,680
engineering reality for LEGO.
3856
03:17:47,680 --> 03:17:51,840
This level of detail gives the company
3857
03:17:49,680 --> 03:17:54,560
one of the highest brand trust ratings
3858
03:17:51,840 --> 03:17:57,120
in the world. Parents know the bricks
3859
03:17:54,560 --> 03:17:59,920
will last. Adults know the sets will
3860
03:17:57,120 --> 03:18:02,160
impress. Collectors know the investment
3861
03:17:59,920 --> 03:18:04,479
will hold value.
3862
03:18:02,160 --> 03:18:07,200
The modern toy market is a machine of
3863
03:18:04,479 --> 03:18:08,960
impulse, tradition, celebration, and
3864
03:18:07,200 --> 03:18:12,479
nostalgia.
3865
03:18:08,960 --> 03:18:16,399
In 2025, global spending on toys
3866
03:18:12,479 --> 03:18:19,439
approaches 120 billion, nearly double
3867
03:18:16,399 --> 03:18:21,200
what it was two decades earlier. The
3868
03:18:19,439 --> 03:18:23,760
United States remains the world's
3869
03:18:21,200 --> 03:18:26,800
largest consumer. accounting for roughly
3870
03:18:23,760 --> 03:18:28,960
onethird of global sales. A typical
3871
03:18:26,800 --> 03:18:32,640
American household with children may
3872
03:18:28,960 --> 03:18:35,600
spend $300 to $400 per child per year on
3873
03:18:32,640 --> 03:18:37,920
toys. This is more than five times the
3874
03:18:35,600 --> 03:18:40,399
global average.
3875
03:18:37,920 --> 03:18:42,640
Europe forms the second largest block
3876
03:18:40,399 --> 03:18:45,520
with strong purchasing power in Germany,
3877
03:18:42,640 --> 03:18:47,920
the United Kingdom, and France.
3878
03:18:45,520 --> 03:18:50,399
Asia-Pacific is rapidly growing,
3879
03:18:47,920 --> 03:18:53,200
especially in China, South Korea, and
3880
03:18:50,399 --> 03:18:55,920
Japan. driven by rising middle classes
3881
03:18:53,200 --> 03:18:58,399
and urban lifestyles.
3882
03:18:55,920 --> 03:19:01,680
But the most important shift of the last
3883
03:18:58,399 --> 03:19:04,680
decade is not geographic. It is
3884
03:19:01,680 --> 03:19:04,680
demographic.
3885
03:19:08,800 --> 03:19:13,840
Adults, once considered irrelevant to
3886
03:19:11,520 --> 03:19:16,800
the toy industry, are now one of the
3887
03:19:13,840 --> 03:19:19,840
most powerful forces. This growing
3888
03:19:16,800 --> 03:19:23,279
segment, commonly called the kid market,
3889
03:19:19,840 --> 03:19:26,080
now represents between 25 and 30% of all
3890
03:19:23,279 --> 03:19:28,640
toy purchases worldwide.
3891
03:19:26,080 --> 03:19:31,760
Adults buy toys for nostalgia, for
3892
03:19:28,640 --> 03:19:33,279
stress relief, for display, for
3893
03:19:31,760 --> 03:19:35,520
identity.
3894
03:19:33,279 --> 03:19:36,640
Lego is the undisputed champion of this
3895
03:19:35,520 --> 03:19:39,040
movement.
3896
03:19:36,640 --> 03:19:42,359
>> Unlike other hobbies, Lego gives me a
3897
03:19:39,040 --> 03:19:42,359
sense of calm.
3898
03:19:43,439 --> 03:19:48,160
It lets me take ideas from my mind,
3899
03:19:45,840 --> 03:19:50,800
bring them to life, think them through,
3900
03:19:48,160 --> 03:19:53,120
and simply enjoy the process.
3901
03:19:50,800 --> 03:19:56,000
>> Right now, I'm trying to instill that in
3902
03:19:53,120 --> 03:19:58,239
my son to enjoy himself, to learn, to
3903
03:19:56,000 --> 03:20:00,160
see colors and shapes, and to understand
3904
03:19:58,239 --> 03:20:02,160
that with imagination, anything is
3905
03:20:00,160 --> 03:20:05,520
possible.
3906
03:20:02,160 --> 03:20:08,000
Its premium sets, Technic Hypercars,
3907
03:20:05,520 --> 03:20:10,800
Star Wars Ultimate Collector Series,
3908
03:20:08,000 --> 03:20:13,120
iconic landmarks, regularly exceed
3909
03:20:10,800 --> 03:20:15,359
prices of $30,500,
3910
03:20:13,120 --> 03:20:18,080
even $800.
3911
03:20:15,359 --> 03:20:19,920
They sell out within hours. They hold
3912
03:20:18,080 --> 03:20:21,439
aftermarket values like fine
3913
03:20:19,920 --> 03:20:23,520
collectibles.
3914
03:20:21,439 --> 03:20:25,439
This adult segment has reshaped the
3915
03:20:23,520 --> 03:20:28,479
entire financial landscape of the
3916
03:20:25,439 --> 03:20:31,200
company. It provides stability when
3917
03:20:28,479 --> 03:20:34,399
children's trends shift. It creates
3918
03:20:31,200 --> 03:20:36,560
recurring revenue from loyal fans and it
3919
03:20:34,399 --> 03:20:39,520
strengthens LEGO's position as a
3920
03:20:36,560 --> 03:20:42,479
crossgenerational brand, something few
3921
03:20:39,520 --> 03:20:44,720
toy companies have ever achieved.
3922
03:20:42,479 --> 03:20:47,680
Seasonality still dictates much of the
3923
03:20:44,720 --> 03:20:50,000
global toy market. Every year, nearly
3924
03:20:47,680 --> 03:20:53,359
half of all toy sales occur between
3925
03:20:50,000 --> 03:20:56,239
October and December. Companies live or
3926
03:20:53,359 --> 03:20:59,520
die by holiday forecasting, inventory
3927
03:20:56,239 --> 03:21:02,239
strategy, and shipment timing. But LEGO
3928
03:20:59,520 --> 03:21:05,120
has become the exception. Adult
3929
03:21:02,239 --> 03:21:07,520
collectors buy year round. Digital
3930
03:21:05,120 --> 03:21:10,560
experiences drive sales outside the
3931
03:21:07,520 --> 03:21:13,840
holiday season. Licensed launches create
3932
03:21:10,560 --> 03:21:16,560
anticipation even in slow quarters.
3933
03:21:13,840 --> 03:21:18,560
LEGO has effectively freed itself or at
3934
03:21:16,560 --> 03:21:20,640
least partially from the seasonal
3935
03:21:18,560 --> 03:21:23,359
dependency that has defined the toy
3936
03:21:20,640 --> 03:21:26,319
industry for over a century.
3937
03:21:23,359 --> 03:21:29,040
The brick is physical, tangible,
3938
03:21:26,319 --> 03:21:31,920
mechanical. But LEGO's success in the
3939
03:21:29,040 --> 03:21:36,720
21st century extends into digital
3940
03:21:31,920 --> 03:21:39,040
worlds. Star Wars, Batman, Marvel. These
3941
03:21:36,720 --> 03:21:42,319
games defined an entire generation of
3942
03:21:39,040 --> 03:21:44,880
familyfriendly titles. They sold tens of
3943
03:21:42,319 --> 03:21:48,080
millions of copies. They introduced
3944
03:21:44,880 --> 03:21:51,600
humor, storytelling, and simplicity to a
3945
03:21:48,080 --> 03:21:53,680
medium often dominated by complexity.
3946
03:21:51,600 --> 03:21:56,720
For many children born after the year
3947
03:21:53,680 --> 03:22:00,560
2000, Lego was not discovered in a toy
3948
03:21:56,720 --> 03:22:03,359
box, but on a screen. The cinematic leap
3949
03:22:00,560 --> 03:22:06,239
came in 2014 when the Lego movie
3950
03:22:03,359 --> 03:22:09,040
premiered to global acclaim. He turned
3951
03:22:06,239 --> 03:22:11,680
nearly half a billion dollars. Most
3952
03:22:09,040 --> 03:22:15,040
importantly, it reframed Lego as a
3953
03:22:11,680 --> 03:22:17,359
cultural idea, not a product. The film
3954
03:22:15,040 --> 03:22:20,640
taught a global audience that creativity
3955
03:22:17,359 --> 03:22:22,720
matters, that imperfection is beautiful,
3956
03:22:20,640 --> 03:22:26,479
that building and rebuilding are not
3957
03:22:22,720 --> 03:22:29,520
failures, they are the process of play.
3958
03:22:26,479 --> 03:22:31,760
Lego Batman expanded the concept. Lego
3959
03:22:29,520 --> 03:22:35,040
Ninjago created an entirely new
3960
03:22:31,760 --> 03:22:37,120
generation of fans, and Lego Masters on
3961
03:22:35,040 --> 03:22:39,359
television turned building into a
3962
03:22:37,120 --> 03:22:42,080
competitive art form.
3963
03:22:39,359 --> 03:22:45,439
The brand had moved beyond toys, beyond
3964
03:22:42,080 --> 03:22:48,000
stories, beyond bricks. It had become
3965
03:22:45,439 --> 03:22:51,000
part of the cultural grammar of the 21st
3966
03:22:48,000 --> 03:22:51,000
century.
3967
03:22:54,640 --> 03:22:59,040
Long before STEM became a global
3968
03:22:56,720 --> 03:23:02,000
movement, Lego was already teaching
3969
03:22:59,040 --> 03:23:05,680
children how to think like engineers.
3970
03:23:02,000 --> 03:23:08,080
In the 1990s, Lego Mindstorms introduced
3971
03:23:05,680 --> 03:23:12,560
programmable robotics to students around
3972
03:23:08,080 --> 03:23:15,120
the world. Later sets, we do Spike Prime
3973
03:23:12,560 --> 03:23:18,800
Boost brought coding, sensors, and
3974
03:23:15,120 --> 03:23:21,200
motors into classrooms and homes. Today,
3975
03:23:18,800 --> 03:23:23,439
LEGO Education works with governments,
3976
03:23:21,200 --> 03:23:25,200
schools, and universities to bring
3977
03:23:23,439 --> 03:23:28,560
hands-on learning to millions of
3978
03:23:25,200 --> 03:23:31,200
students. The philosophy is simple.
3979
03:23:28,560 --> 03:23:33,520
Children learn best through play. This
3980
03:23:31,200 --> 03:23:36,800
approach shapes future engineers,
3981
03:23:33,520 --> 03:23:38,479
designers, and problem solvers. It helps
3982
03:23:36,800 --> 03:23:41,680
children experiment in ways that
3983
03:23:38,479 --> 03:23:44,239
textbooks cannot. And it continues Ole
3984
03:23:41,680 --> 03:23:46,319
Kirk's belief that play is not a
3985
03:23:44,239 --> 03:23:49,040
distraction from learning, but the
3986
03:23:46,319 --> 03:23:51,040
foundation of it.
3987
03:23:49,040 --> 03:23:51,840
In a world increasingly focused on
3988
03:23:51,040 --> 03:23:53,920
sustainability,
3989
03:23:51,840 --> 03:23:55,840
>> from my experience, what makes Lego
3990
03:23:53,920 --> 03:23:58,720
different from other construction toys
3991
03:23:55,840 --> 03:24:00,960
is its growing commitment to inclusion.
3992
03:23:58,720 --> 03:24:02,319
In recent years, LEGO has actively
3993
03:24:00,960 --> 03:24:04,560
embraced people with different
3994
03:24:02,319 --> 03:24:06,560
abilities. For example, by including
3995
03:24:04,560 --> 03:24:09,200
figures in wheelchairs and releasing
3996
03:24:06,560 --> 03:24:11,040
sets in braille. These are things most
3997
03:24:09,200 --> 03:24:13,200
other brands simply don't offer, but
3998
03:24:11,040 --> 03:24:15,359
LEGO does.
3999
03:24:13,200 --> 03:24:17,279
In addition, LEGO is strongly committed
4000
03:24:15,359 --> 03:24:18,960
to the environment.
4001
03:24:17,279 --> 03:24:21,200
They're producing more and more pieces
4002
03:24:18,960 --> 03:24:23,040
using recycled plastic and replacing
4003
03:24:21,200 --> 03:24:25,920
plastic packaging with paper to reduce
4004
03:24:23,040 --> 03:24:28,479
waste, something other brands simply
4005
03:24:25,920 --> 03:24:31,600
don't do.
4006
03:24:28,479 --> 03:24:34,080
Lego faces a unique challenge. Its
4007
03:24:31,600 --> 03:24:36,479
bricks are made to last forever. A
4008
03:24:34,080 --> 03:24:40,239
blessing for creativity, but a concern
4009
03:24:36,479 --> 03:24:42,319
in an era of plastic waste. In response,
4010
03:24:40,239 --> 03:24:44,160
LEGO has invested hundreds of millions
4011
03:24:42,319 --> 03:24:46,319
of dollars into developing more
4012
03:24:44,160 --> 03:24:48,960
sustainable materials.
4013
03:24:46,319 --> 03:24:52,239
Plant-based polyethylene is already used
4014
03:24:48,960 --> 03:24:55,200
for leaves and trees. Recycled PT
4015
03:24:52,239 --> 03:24:57,760
prototypes continue to advance.
4016
03:24:55,200 --> 03:25:01,279
Recycled PET prototypes continue to
4017
03:24:57,760 --> 03:25:04,880
advance. New polymer engineering aims to
4018
03:25:01,279 --> 03:25:07,439
create bricks as durable as ABS without
4019
03:25:04,880 --> 03:25:10,720
the environmental cost.
4020
03:25:07,439 --> 03:25:12,880
This transition is not simple. A Lego
4021
03:25:10,720 --> 03:25:15,600
brick must interlock with perfect
4022
03:25:12,880 --> 03:25:17,680
precision. A fraction of a millimeter
4023
03:25:15,600 --> 03:25:19,520
can make the difference between wonder
4024
03:25:17,680 --> 03:25:22,160
and frustration.
4025
03:25:19,520 --> 03:25:24,560
But the mission is clear. A toy that
4026
03:25:22,160 --> 03:25:27,760
lasts forever should also protect the
4027
03:25:24,560 --> 03:25:31,439
world it is played in. Play is not a
4028
03:25:27,760 --> 03:25:32,960
luxury. Play is exploration. Play is
4029
03:25:31,439 --> 03:25:35,279
curiosity.
4030
03:25:32,960 --> 03:25:37,120
Play is the earliest form of human
4031
03:25:35,279 --> 03:25:39,279
creativity.
4032
03:25:37,120 --> 03:25:41,840
From wooden ducks in a small Danish
4033
03:25:39,279 --> 03:25:43,920
workshop to interlocking bricks that
4034
03:25:41,840 --> 03:25:47,200
span generations
4035
03:25:43,920 --> 03:25:50,160
to movies, video games, robotics, and
4036
03:25:47,200 --> 03:25:52,720
global fan communities. LEGO has
4037
03:25:50,160 --> 03:25:56,560
remained loyal to a simple truth. When
4038
03:25:52,720 --> 03:26:00,239
we build, we grow. When we imagine, we
4039
03:25:56,560 --> 03:26:03,239
expand. When we play, we become more
4040
03:26:00,239 --> 03:26:03,239
human.
4041
03:26:07,200 --> 03:26:12,880
More than a century ago, a carpenter
4042
03:26:09,920 --> 03:26:15,920
rebuilt his workshop after a fire. He
4043
03:26:12,880 --> 03:26:18,560
rebuilt it again after another. Not
4044
03:26:15,920 --> 03:26:21,040
because it was easy, but because he
4045
03:26:18,560 --> 03:26:24,399
believed in the power of making things
4046
03:26:21,040 --> 03:26:26,399
and in the power of play. Today,
4047
03:26:24,399 --> 03:26:30,080
billions of creations have risen from
4048
03:26:26,399 --> 03:26:31,920
that belief. Cities, castles,
4049
03:26:30,080 --> 03:26:33,840
spaceships,
4050
03:26:31,920 --> 03:26:37,120
dreams that exist nowhere else but in
4051
03:26:33,840 --> 03:26:40,080
the minds of the people who build them.
4052
03:26:37,120 --> 03:26:42,960
LEGO is not perfect. It has faced
4053
03:26:40,080 --> 03:26:47,200
crisis, challenges, and impossible
4054
03:26:42,960 --> 03:26:49,279
decisions. But it endures through war,
4055
03:26:47,200 --> 03:26:52,080
through technological revolutions,
4056
03:26:49,279 --> 03:26:55,200
through economic storms. Because
4057
03:26:52,080 --> 03:26:57,120
imagination always endures,
4058
03:26:55,200 --> 03:27:01,600
and as long as there are hands reaching
4059
03:26:57,120 --> 03:27:04,160
for bricks, as long as there are minds,
4060
03:27:01,600 --> 03:27:06,000
the legacy of Ole Christensen will
4061
03:27:04,160 --> 03:27:11,640
continue.
4062
03:27:06,000 --> 03:27:11,640
Every dream starts with a single piece.
4063
03:28:37,840 --> 03:28:45,520
Jensen Huang, the software moat.
4064
03:28:42,160 --> 03:28:48,880
June 18th, 2024.
4065
03:28:45,520 --> 03:28:51,359
For a brief historic moment, the world
4066
03:28:48,880 --> 03:28:54,640
had a new king.
4067
03:28:51,359 --> 03:28:57,840
Jensen Huang, the co-founder and CEO of
4068
03:28:54,640 --> 03:29:01,120
Nvidia, stood at the peak of a $3.4
4069
03:28:57,840 --> 03:29:03,520
trillion mountain.
4070
03:29:01,120 --> 03:29:06,560
Analysts whispered that he wasn't just
4071
03:29:03,520 --> 03:29:10,160
leading a company. He was leading the
4072
03:29:06,560 --> 03:29:13,040
first entity destined for a $4 trillion
4073
03:29:10,160 --> 03:29:15,040
valuation.
4074
03:29:13,040 --> 03:29:18,479
But to understand the man in the leather
4075
03:29:15,040 --> 03:29:22,319
jacket, you cannot look at the triumph.
4076
03:29:18,479 --> 03:29:26,560
You must look at the fear. Behind the
4077
03:29:22,319 --> 03:29:30,080
250% revenue jumps and the soldout age
4078
03:29:26,560 --> 03:29:32,560
100 backlogs lies a leader obsessed with
4079
03:29:30,080 --> 03:29:34,239
the cyclical trap.
4080
03:29:32,560 --> 03:29:35,840
In the 60-year history of
4081
03:29:34,239 --> 03:29:38,560
semiconductors,
4082
03:29:35,840 --> 03:29:42,720
giants like Texas Instruments, Intel,
4083
03:29:38,560 --> 03:29:45,680
and Samsung have all held the crown only
4084
03:29:42,720 --> 03:29:48,800
to see it slip away.
4085
03:29:45,680 --> 03:29:53,520
Jensen's mission is simple. Break the
4086
03:29:48,800 --> 03:29:56,640
cycle before it breaks him.
4087
03:29:53,520 --> 03:29:59,279
Flashback to September 1996.
4088
03:29:56,640 --> 03:30:01,680
The golden era of the internet is
4089
03:29:59,279 --> 03:30:05,600
dawning for everyone else but for
4090
03:30:01,680 --> 03:30:08,720
Nvidia. It is a death nail.
4091
03:30:05,600 --> 03:30:11,680
Their first chip, the NV1, is a
4092
03:30:08,720 --> 03:30:14,160
technical ghost rejected by Microsoft's
4093
03:30:11,680 --> 03:30:16,720
DirectX.
4094
03:30:14,160 --> 03:30:19,520
Jensen stands before a dwindling team
4095
03:30:16,720 --> 03:30:22,160
and delivers the most famous mantra in
4096
03:30:19,520 --> 03:30:26,080
Silicon Valley history.
4097
03:30:22,160 --> 03:30:29,600
We have exactly 30 days of oxygen left.
4098
03:30:26,080 --> 03:30:32,000
We are 30 days from bankruptcy.
4099
03:30:29,600 --> 03:30:34,399
How does a man go from cleaning toilets
4100
03:30:32,000 --> 03:30:36,399
in a Kentucky reform school to
4101
03:30:34,399 --> 03:30:39,520
controlling the foundational layer of
4102
03:30:36,399 --> 03:30:42,399
the global AI economy?
4103
03:30:39,520 --> 03:30:45,600
From a red leather booth at a Denny's to
4104
03:30:42,399 --> 03:30:47,920
a legal showdown in the US Supreme Court
4105
03:30:45,600 --> 03:30:49,760
over the very intellectual honesty of
4106
03:30:47,920 --> 03:30:52,319
his empire.
4107
03:30:49,760 --> 03:30:53,920
This is not just a story of silicon and
4108
03:30:52,319 --> 03:30:56,080
software.
4109
03:30:53,920 --> 03:30:58,239
This is the chronicle of the man who
4110
03:30:56,080 --> 03:30:59,920
decided to manufacture intelligence
4111
03:30:58,239 --> 03:31:03,439
itself.
4112
03:30:59,920 --> 03:31:06,880
This is Jensen Huang, the architect of
4113
03:31:03,439 --> 03:31:12,200
the digital brain.
4114
03:31:06,880 --> 03:31:12,200
Chapter one. Forged in the chaos,
4115
03:31:12,319 --> 03:31:18,319
Nvidia was not born from abundance. Its
4116
03:31:15,840 --> 03:31:20,399
DNA was forged in the raw fires of
4117
03:31:18,319 --> 03:31:23,279
survival.
4118
03:31:20,399 --> 03:31:26,000
Jen's son Huang arrived in the United
4119
03:31:23,279 --> 03:31:29,359
States as a young migrant, but his
4120
03:31:26,000 --> 03:31:31,840
destination wasn't an elite prep school.
4121
03:31:29,359 --> 03:31:34,399
Due to a clerical misunderstanding by
4122
03:31:31,840 --> 03:31:37,600
his parents, he was sent to Onida
4123
03:31:34,399 --> 03:31:40,479
Baptist Institute in rural Kentucky, a
4124
03:31:37,600 --> 03:31:43,120
place that at the time functioned more
4125
03:31:40,479 --> 03:31:45,680
as a reform school for troubled youths
4126
03:31:43,120 --> 03:31:48,800
than a traditional academy.
4127
03:31:45,680 --> 03:31:50,800
At 9 years old, the future CEO of one of
4128
03:31:48,800 --> 03:31:53,359
the world's most valuable companies
4129
03:31:50,800 --> 03:31:56,800
wasn't coding. He was cleaning the
4130
03:31:53,359 --> 03:31:58,880
toilets of 150 teenagers every single
4131
03:31:56,800 --> 03:32:01,359
afternoon.
4132
03:31:58,880 --> 03:32:02,960
In his personal transcripts, Jensen
4133
03:32:01,359 --> 03:32:04,479
reflects on this with a chilling
4134
03:32:02,960 --> 03:32:07,120
stoicism.
4135
03:32:04,479 --> 03:32:08,880
I didn't complain. I just learned to
4136
03:32:07,120 --> 03:32:10,800
work hard.
4137
03:32:08,880 --> 03:32:13,520
Bad boy learned the first law of
4138
03:32:10,800 --> 03:32:17,040
accelerated computing decades before it
4139
03:32:13,520 --> 03:32:19,680
existed. For a system to be efficient,
4140
03:32:17,040 --> 03:32:22,880
it must be able to process chaos under
4141
03:32:19,680 --> 03:32:25,920
extreme pressure.
4142
03:32:22,880 --> 03:32:28,319
By 15, Jensen was the most efficient
4143
03:32:25,920 --> 03:32:31,439
dishwasher and waiter at a Denny's in
4144
03:32:28,319 --> 03:32:33,920
Portland. I was incredibly shy, he
4145
03:32:31,439 --> 03:32:36,880
admits. But the chaos of the kitchen
4146
03:32:33,920 --> 03:32:39,439
forced me out of my shell.
4147
03:32:36,880 --> 03:32:43,040
It is no coincidence that Nvidia was
4148
03:32:39,439 --> 03:32:45,760
founded in 1993 inside a booth at that
4149
03:32:43,040 --> 03:32:48,000
very same restaurant chain.
4150
03:32:45,760 --> 03:32:50,720
While the world saw the dawn of the PC
4151
03:32:48,000 --> 03:32:54,720
as an office tool for spreadsheets,
4152
03:32:50,720 --> 03:32:58,319
Jensen, Chris Mahovski, and Curtis P saw
4153
03:32:54,720 --> 03:33:02,560
a fatal weakness.
4154
03:32:58,319 --> 03:33:05,760
In 1993, Intel's generalpurpose CPU was
4155
03:33:02,560 --> 03:33:08,720
hitting a physical wall. If the future
4156
03:33:05,760 --> 03:33:10,720
of computing was visual and immersive,
4157
03:33:08,720 --> 03:33:12,800
the traditional serial architecture
4158
03:33:10,720 --> 03:33:14,479
would become the bottleneck of human
4159
03:33:12,800 --> 03:33:17,920
progress.
4160
03:33:14,479 --> 03:33:21,120
With only $40,000 in startup capital,
4161
03:33:17,920 --> 03:33:23,600
they founded Nvidia to chase a ghost,
4162
03:33:21,120 --> 03:33:25,439
accelerated computing.
4163
03:33:23,600 --> 03:33:28,479
They bet on a market the rest of the
4164
03:33:25,439 --> 03:33:32,319
industry dismissed as a niche for toys,
4165
03:33:28,479 --> 03:33:34,080
video games. Before Jensen, video games
4166
03:33:32,319 --> 03:33:35,680
were the ultimate technological
4167
03:33:34,080 --> 03:33:37,760
flywheel.
4168
03:33:35,680 --> 03:33:40,640
He knew that if you could master the
4169
03:33:37,760 --> 03:33:42,800
massive realtime rendering of pixels,
4170
03:33:40,640 --> 03:33:44,880
you could eventually simulate reality
4171
03:33:42,800 --> 03:33:47,359
itself.
4172
03:33:44,880 --> 03:33:49,600
But before they could reach that glory,
4173
03:33:47,359 --> 03:33:54,279
they had to survive their first massive
4174
03:33:49,600 --> 03:33:54,279
technical abyss, the NV1.
4175
03:34:01,600 --> 03:34:08,800
By 1995, Nvidia's first massive bet, the
4176
03:34:05,840 --> 03:34:11,359
NV1 chip, was ready to conquer the
4177
03:34:08,800 --> 03:34:14,479
market. But Jensen Hang had made a
4178
03:34:11,359 --> 03:34:16,000
catastrophic technical gamble.
4179
03:34:14,479 --> 03:34:19,359
At a time when the industry was
4180
03:34:16,000 --> 03:34:21,760
undecided, he bet on quadratic texture
4181
03:34:19,359 --> 03:34:24,960
mapping, a method that used curved
4182
03:34:21,760 --> 03:34:27,520
surfaces to create 3D images.
4183
03:34:24,960 --> 03:34:30,880
It was mathematically intelligent, but
4184
03:34:27,520 --> 03:34:32,880
it was a lonely path. The industry
4185
03:34:30,880 --> 03:34:36,399
hammer dropped when Microsoft released
4186
03:34:32,880 --> 03:34:39,359
its first DirectX API. Microsoft chose
4187
03:34:36,399 --> 03:34:42,080
triangles, not quads, as the universal
4188
03:34:39,359 --> 03:34:43,840
language for PC gaming.
4189
03:34:42,080 --> 03:34:47,359
This decision rendered Nvidia's
4190
03:34:43,840 --> 03:34:50,560
technology instantly obsolete.
4191
03:34:47,359 --> 03:34:54,319
The NV1 wasn't just a failure, it was a
4192
03:34:50,560 --> 03:34:57,200
dead end. The company was bleeding cash,
4193
03:34:54,319 --> 03:35:02,520
and as Jensen famously put it, they were
4194
03:34:57,200 --> 03:35:02,520
staring at exactly 30 days of oxygen.
4195
03:35:03,040 --> 03:35:08,000
Nvidia's only lifeline was a strategic
4196
03:35:05,680 --> 03:35:09,600
contract with the Japanese giant Seagga
4197
03:35:08,000 --> 03:35:12,880
to build the graphics engine for the
4198
03:35:09,600 --> 03:35:15,840
Sega Saturn. But Jensen was trapped in a
4199
03:35:12,880 --> 03:35:18,000
moral and business dilemma.
4200
03:35:15,840 --> 03:35:20,560
He knew that if they continued building
4201
03:35:18,000 --> 03:35:23,600
the chip for Sega using Nvidia's flawed
4202
03:35:20,560 --> 03:35:26,399
quad technology, Sega would lose the
4203
03:35:23,600 --> 03:35:29,600
console war to Sony's PlayStation and
4204
03:35:26,399 --> 03:35:32,640
Nvidia would eventually perish anyway.
4205
03:35:29,600 --> 03:35:34,399
In an act of intellectual honesty, or as
4206
03:35:32,640 --> 03:35:38,399
many at the time called corporate
4207
03:35:34,399 --> 03:35:42,000
suicide, Jensen flew to Japan. He sat
4208
03:35:38,399 --> 03:35:45,920
across from Shy Chiro Majiri, the CEO of
4209
03:35:42,000 --> 03:35:48,720
Sega, and told him the brutal truth. Our
4210
03:35:45,920 --> 03:35:51,120
technology is on the wrong path. If we
4211
03:35:48,720 --> 03:35:53,840
finish this project, you will produce an
4212
03:35:51,120 --> 03:35:56,720
inferior product.
4213
03:35:53,840 --> 03:35:59,120
Jensen asked for the impossible. He
4214
03:35:56,720 --> 03:36:01,680
asked Sega to terminate the contract,
4215
03:35:59,120 --> 03:36:04,640
but to pay the remaining $5 million
4216
03:36:01,680 --> 03:36:07,120
anyway. If you don't pay us, Jensen
4217
03:36:04,640 --> 03:36:09,040
pleaded, Nvidia will cease to exist
4218
03:36:07,120 --> 03:36:11,760
tomorrow.
4219
03:36:09,040 --> 03:36:14,960
To the astonishment of the tech world,
4220
03:36:11,760 --> 03:36:17,520
Majiri agreed. He didn't pay for a
4221
03:36:14,960 --> 03:36:19,920
working chip. He paid for Jensen's
4222
03:36:17,520 --> 03:36:22,880
integrity.
4223
03:36:19,920 --> 03:36:25,359
That $5 million was the most expensive
4224
03:36:22,880 --> 03:36:28,160
oxygen in history.
4225
03:36:25,359 --> 03:36:30,560
To make it last, Jensen had to fire half
4226
03:36:28,160 --> 03:36:32,479
of his workforce. These weren't just
4227
03:36:30,560 --> 03:36:35,200
employees. They were friends who had
4228
03:36:32,479 --> 03:36:37,279
shared the Denny's dream. This trauma
4229
03:36:35,200 --> 03:36:40,479
institutionalized a permanent state of
4230
03:36:37,279 --> 03:36:43,279
emergency at Nvidia.
4231
03:36:40,479 --> 03:36:47,040
With the remaining team, Jensen funneled
4232
03:36:43,279 --> 03:36:49,359
every cent into the Reval 128.
4233
03:36:47,040 --> 03:36:52,239
They abandoned quads and embraced
4234
03:36:49,359 --> 03:36:56,720
Microsoft's triangles with a vengeance.
4235
03:36:52,239 --> 03:36:59,680
When it launched in 1997, the Reva 128
4236
03:36:56,720 --> 03:37:01,439
was 400% faster than anything else on
4237
03:36:59,680 --> 03:37:04,560
the market.
4238
03:37:01,439 --> 03:37:07,520
It was a dive catch of epic proportions.
4239
03:37:04,560 --> 03:37:10,560
Nvidia was no longer just a survivor. It
4240
03:37:07,520 --> 03:37:13,359
had become a hunter.
4241
03:37:10,560 --> 03:37:16,720
But as Jensen looked at the horizon, he
4242
03:37:13,359 --> 03:37:21,080
saw 70 rivals waiting to kill him. The
4243
03:37:16,720 --> 03:37:21,080
war was only beginning.
4244
03:37:26,160 --> 03:37:32,000
The success of the Reva 128 was a dive
4245
03:37:29,439 --> 03:37:34,479
catch, but it placed Nvidia in the
4246
03:37:32,000 --> 03:37:38,000
middle of a slaughterhouse.
4247
03:37:34,479 --> 03:37:40,239
By 1997, there were over 70 companies
4248
03:37:38,000 --> 03:37:41,760
fighting for the soul of the 3D graphics
4249
03:37:40,239 --> 03:37:43,760
market.
4250
03:37:41,760 --> 03:37:46,960
It was a commodity war where price
4251
03:37:43,760 --> 03:37:49,279
cutting was the only weapon for most.
4252
03:37:46,960 --> 03:37:51,520
Jensen Huang realized that if Nvidia
4253
03:37:49,279 --> 03:37:55,040
played by the industry's rules, they
4254
03:37:51,520 --> 03:37:58,399
would eventually be ground into dust.
4255
03:37:55,040 --> 03:38:00,319
He decided to break the laws of time.
4256
03:37:58,399 --> 03:38:03,680
The industry standard for developing a
4257
03:38:00,319 --> 03:38:06,960
new chip was 18 to 24 months. Following
4258
03:38:03,680 --> 03:38:09,200
the steady beat of Moore's law, Jensen
4259
03:38:06,960 --> 03:38:12,239
gathered his engineers and imposed a
4260
03:38:09,200 --> 03:38:14,960
suicidal mandate. Nvidia would release a
4261
03:38:12,239 --> 03:38:18,640
brand new groundbreaking architecture
4262
03:38:14,960 --> 03:38:20,640
every 6 months.
4263
03:38:18,640 --> 03:38:22,160
It was a strategy of relentless
4264
03:38:20,640 --> 03:38:25,680
execution.
4265
03:38:22,160 --> 03:38:28,800
By the time a competitor like 3dfx or S3
4266
03:38:25,680 --> 03:38:31,840
could react to one Nvidia chip, Jensen
4267
03:38:28,800 --> 03:38:34,000
had already launched two more. This
4268
03:38:31,840 --> 03:38:36,319
forced the competition into a permanent
4269
03:38:34,000 --> 03:38:39,279
state of obsolescence.
4270
03:38:36,319 --> 03:38:41,600
To achieve this, Nvidia had to reinvent
4271
03:38:39,279 --> 03:38:44,160
its internal engineering, running
4272
03:38:41,600 --> 03:38:46,239
multiple design teams in parallel, a
4273
03:38:44,160 --> 03:38:48,239
massive financial risk that pushed the
4274
03:38:46,239 --> 03:38:52,720
company to the edge of its operational
4275
03:38:48,239 --> 03:38:58,880
capacity. In 1999, the war reached its
4276
03:38:52,720 --> 03:39:01,520
climax. Nvidia released the GeForce 256.
4277
03:38:58,880 --> 03:39:03,680
Jensen didn't just market it as a faster
4278
03:39:01,520 --> 03:39:07,680
card. He coined a term that would
4279
03:39:03,680 --> 03:39:10,640
redefine computing history, the GPU,
4280
03:39:07,680 --> 03:39:13,680
graphics processing unit. This wasn't
4281
03:39:10,640 --> 03:39:15,359
just branding. Technically, the GeForce
4282
03:39:13,680 --> 03:39:17,279
256
4283
03:39:15,359 --> 03:39:19,359
moved the transformer lighting
4284
03:39:17,279 --> 03:39:22,640
calculations, the most heavy
4285
03:39:19,359 --> 03:39:25,600
mathematical lifting of 3D off the CPU
4286
03:39:22,640 --> 03:39:28,080
and onto the chip itself. It was the
4287
03:39:25,600 --> 03:39:30,479
birth of a new era.
4288
03:39:28,080 --> 03:39:32,479
This performance leap was so massive
4289
03:39:30,479 --> 03:39:34,479
that Nvidia secured the prestigious
4290
03:39:32,479 --> 03:39:38,319
contract for the original Microsoft
4291
03:39:34,479 --> 03:39:40,880
Xbox, receiving a crucial $200 million
4292
03:39:38,319 --> 03:39:44,000
advance.
4293
03:39:40,880 --> 03:39:46,560
The six-month cycle worked. By the early
4294
03:39:44,000 --> 03:39:50,960
2000s, the 70 competitors had been
4295
03:39:46,560 --> 03:39:53,840
reduced to just two, Nvidia and ATI.
4296
03:39:50,960 --> 03:39:56,080
In a final act of dominance, Nvidia
4297
03:39:53,840 --> 03:40:00,640
acquired the assets of its former idol
4298
03:39:56,080 --> 03:40:03,920
and arch rival 3dfx in 2000.
4299
03:40:00,640 --> 03:40:07,359
Jensen had cleared the board. He was the
4300
03:40:03,920 --> 03:40:10,000
undisputed king of gaming. But at the
4301
03:40:07,359 --> 03:40:11,760
very moment of his greatest triumph, he
4302
03:40:10,000 --> 03:40:14,479
began to look at the higherformance
4303
03:40:11,760 --> 03:40:16,960
computing market. He realized that the
4304
03:40:14,479 --> 03:40:19,920
GPU's massive parallel math could do
4305
03:40:16,960 --> 03:40:22,880
more than just draw pixels. It could
4306
03:40:19,920 --> 03:40:26,399
solve the world's most complex problems.
4307
03:40:22,880 --> 03:40:30,680
The seeds of CUDA and the $10 billion
4308
03:40:26,399 --> 03:40:30,680
gamble were being planted.
4309
03:40:36,000 --> 03:40:42,800
By 2006, Nvidia was the undisputed king
4310
03:40:39,760 --> 03:40:45,359
of the gaming world. But Jensen Huang
4311
03:40:42,800 --> 03:40:47,520
was restless. He realized that the same
4312
03:40:45,359 --> 03:40:50,160
parallel processing power that rendered
4313
03:40:47,520 --> 03:40:52,160
pixels for World of Warcraft could be
4314
03:40:50,160 --> 03:40:54,640
used to solve the world's most complex
4315
03:40:52,160 --> 03:40:58,239
mathematical problems.
4316
03:40:54,640 --> 03:40:59,760
He launched CUDA, compute unified device
4317
03:40:58,239 --> 03:41:01,840
architecture.
4318
03:40:59,760 --> 03:41:04,399
It was a declaration of war against the
4319
03:41:01,840 --> 03:41:07,279
CPUcentric world.
4320
03:41:04,399 --> 03:41:10,080
The goal was simple yet insane.
4321
03:41:07,279 --> 03:41:13,040
Transform every NVIDIA GPU into a
4322
03:41:10,080 --> 03:41:15,040
general purpose supercomput.
4323
03:41:13,040 --> 03:41:18,880
But this decision came with a staggering
4324
03:41:15,040 --> 03:41:21,439
cost. Jensen mandated that every single
4325
03:41:18,880 --> 03:41:23,520
GPU Nvidia manufactured from the
4326
03:41:21,439 --> 03:41:26,160
high-end workstation cards to the
4327
03:41:23,520 --> 03:41:28,640
cheapest laptop chips must include the
4328
03:41:26,160 --> 03:41:31,040
extra transistors and hardware logic to
4329
03:41:28,640 --> 03:41:34,640
support CUDA.
4330
03:41:31,040 --> 03:41:37,200
Wall Street was horrified.
4331
03:41:34,640 --> 03:41:40,800
For nearly a decade, Nvidia spent
4332
03:41:37,200 --> 03:41:44,080
billions, estimated at over 10 billion
4333
03:41:40,800 --> 03:41:47,279
in cumulative R&D on a software platform
4334
03:41:44,080 --> 03:41:49,439
that almost no one was using. Profit
4335
03:41:47,279 --> 03:41:51,840
margins, which once sat comfortably
4336
03:41:49,439 --> 03:41:53,760
high, were sacrificed at the altar of
4337
03:41:51,840 --> 03:41:56,800
this vision.
4338
03:41:53,760 --> 03:42:00,319
Analysts mocked the strategy, calling it
4339
03:41:56,800 --> 03:42:03,040
the bridge to nowhere. During the 2008
4340
03:42:00,319 --> 03:42:05,760
financial crisis, Nvidia's market cap
4341
03:42:03,040 --> 03:42:08,880
plummeted and the company was once again
4342
03:42:05,760 --> 03:42:10,560
staring into the abyss.
4343
03:42:08,880 --> 03:42:13,359
But Jensen wasn't just building
4344
03:42:10,560 --> 03:42:16,479
hardware. He was building a software
4345
03:42:13,359 --> 03:42:19,040
moat. He sent Nvidia engineers to
4346
03:42:16,479 --> 03:42:21,200
universities around the world, helping
4347
03:42:19,040 --> 03:42:23,200
professors teach parallel programming
4348
03:42:21,200 --> 03:42:25,760
using CUDA.
4349
03:42:23,200 --> 03:42:28,399
He was seeding the ground. While
4350
03:42:25,760 --> 03:42:31,439
competitors like Intel and AMD focused
4351
03:42:28,399 --> 03:42:34,479
on making faster chips, Jensen was
4352
03:42:31,439 --> 03:42:36,720
building an entire language. By the time
4353
03:42:34,479 --> 03:42:39,359
a developer learned CUDA, they were
4354
03:42:36,720 --> 03:42:42,239
locked in. Switching to a competitor
4355
03:42:39,359 --> 03:42:44,319
wouldn't just mean buying a new chip. It
4356
03:42:42,239 --> 03:42:46,720
would mean rewriting millions of lines
4357
03:42:44,319 --> 03:42:49,840
of code.
4358
03:42:46,720 --> 03:42:52,479
Year after year, Jensen defended CUDA in
4359
03:42:49,840 --> 03:42:54,640
boardrooms and earning calls. He
4360
03:42:52,479 --> 03:42:56,960
practiced what he calls long-term
4361
03:42:54,640 --> 03:42:59,760
commitment to a vision, even when the
4362
03:42:56,960 --> 03:43:02,080
data didn't yet support it. He was
4363
03:42:59,760 --> 03:43:03,600
waiting for a killer app for accelerated
4364
03:43:02,080 --> 03:43:06,000
computing.
4365
03:43:03,600 --> 03:43:08,560
He didn't know what it would be. But he
4366
03:43:06,000 --> 03:43:10,880
knew that as data grew exponentially,
4367
03:43:08,560 --> 03:43:12,960
the serial processing of the CPU would
4368
03:43:10,880 --> 03:43:15,359
eventually fail.
4369
03:43:12,960 --> 03:43:17,199
The silence of the CUDA winter was about
4370
03:43:15,359 --> 03:43:20,239
to be broken.
4371
03:43:17,199 --> 03:43:23,359
In a lab at the University of Toronto, a
4372
03:43:20,239 --> 03:43:25,920
PhD student named Alex Kresvki was about
4373
03:43:23,359 --> 03:43:28,960
to feed a neural network called AlexNet
4374
03:43:25,920 --> 03:43:31,359
into those Nvidia GPUs.
4375
03:43:28,960 --> 03:43:34,399
The big bang of artificial intelligence
4376
03:43:31,359 --> 03:43:36,800
was seconds away, and Jensen Hang was
4377
03:43:34,399 --> 03:43:41,319
the only person on Earth who had already
4378
03:43:36,800 --> 03:43:41,319
built the engine to power it.
4379
03:43:46,800 --> 03:43:52,479
The year was 2012. While the world saw
4380
03:43:50,080 --> 03:43:54,720
just another academic competition,
4381
03:43:52,479 --> 03:43:57,359
Jensen Huang saw the spark that would
4382
03:43:54,720 --> 03:44:00,640
ignite a global revolution.
4383
03:43:57,359 --> 03:44:04,080
A neural network called AlexNet, powered
4384
03:44:00,640 --> 03:44:07,279
by NVIDIA GPUs, crushed the competition
4385
03:44:04,080 --> 03:44:09,920
in image recognition. It was the big
4386
03:44:07,279 --> 03:44:12,640
bang of deep learning.
4387
03:44:09,920 --> 03:44:15,840
Jensen didn't just celebrate, he pivoted
4388
03:44:12,640 --> 03:44:18,880
the entire company. He realized that the
4389
03:44:15,840 --> 03:44:23,199
$10 billion gamble on CUDA had finally
4390
03:44:18,880 --> 03:44:25,439
found its soul, artificial intelligence.
4391
03:44:23,199 --> 03:44:27,680
This pivot transformed Nvidia from a
4392
03:44:25,439 --> 03:44:29,840
graphics card company into the
4393
03:44:27,680 --> 03:44:32,800
foundational engine of the world's most
4394
03:44:29,840 --> 03:44:34,640
powerful data centers.
4395
03:44:32,800 --> 03:44:37,840
Jensen's vision was no longer about
4396
03:44:34,640 --> 03:44:39,279
drawing pixels. It was about generative
4397
03:44:37,840 --> 03:44:42,080
AI.
4398
03:44:39,279 --> 03:44:43,600
By the time Chat GPT launched in late
4399
03:44:42,080 --> 03:44:46,399
2022,
4400
03:44:43,600 --> 03:44:48,160
Nvidia didn't just have a head start.
4401
03:44:46,399 --> 03:44:51,120
They were the only ones at the starting
4402
03:44:48,160 --> 03:44:53,359
line.
4403
03:44:51,120 --> 03:44:56,000
Jensen acted with a speed that terrified
4404
03:44:53,359 --> 03:44:59,040
his competitors. He didn't just wait for
4405
03:44:56,000 --> 03:45:00,720
orders. He re-engineered Nvidia's entire
4406
03:44:59,040 --> 03:45:03,600
road map.
4407
03:45:00,720 --> 03:45:06,319
In 2016, he personally delivered the
4408
03:45:03,600 --> 03:45:09,120
first Nvidia DGX1,
4409
03:45:06,319 --> 03:45:11,920
the world's first AI supercomput in a
4410
03:45:09,120 --> 03:45:13,439
box to a then small nonprofit called
4411
03:45:11,920 --> 03:45:16,560
OpenAI.
4412
03:45:13,439 --> 03:45:19,560
He was very clear. This will change the
4413
03:45:16,560 --> 03:45:19,560
world.
4414
03:45:20,319 --> 03:45:23,680
Technically, this period was about
4415
03:45:22,080 --> 03:45:26,080
specialization.
4416
03:45:23,680 --> 03:45:28,880
Nvidia began adding tensor cores to its
4417
03:45:26,080 --> 03:45:30,479
chips. These weren't for graphics. They
4418
03:45:28,880 --> 03:45:32,479
were designed specifically for the deep
4419
03:45:30,479 --> 03:45:34,160
learning math that powers neural
4420
03:45:32,479 --> 03:45:36,080
networks.
4421
03:45:34,160 --> 03:45:38,640
Nvidia was no longer just making a
4422
03:45:36,080 --> 03:45:40,800
faster graphics card. It was building a
4423
03:45:38,640 --> 03:45:44,800
specialized brain.
4424
03:45:40,800 --> 03:45:47,199
By 2017, the momentum was unstoppable.
4425
03:45:44,800 --> 03:45:49,359
Every major tech giant was building AI
4426
03:45:47,199 --> 03:45:51,600
labs and they all had one thing in
4427
03:45:49,359 --> 03:45:53,279
common. They were built on Nvidia's
4428
03:45:51,600 --> 03:45:55,439
stack.
4429
03:45:53,279 --> 03:45:58,160
This was the era when the software mode
4430
03:45:55,439 --> 03:45:59,520
became a fortress. Thousands of
4431
03:45:58,160 --> 03:46:02,880
researchers were now writing their
4432
03:45:59,520 --> 03:46:04,720
doctoral thesis on CUDA.
4433
03:46:02,880 --> 03:46:07,199
If a competitor wanted to challenge
4434
03:46:04,720 --> 03:46:09,760
Nvidia, they wouldn't just need a better
4435
03:46:07,199 --> 03:46:12,319
chip. They would have to convince the
4436
03:46:09,760 --> 03:46:15,120
world's brightest minds to forget
4437
03:46:12,319 --> 03:46:17,920
everything they had learned.
4438
03:46:15,120 --> 03:46:21,040
But as the AI revolution took hold, an
4439
03:46:17,920 --> 03:46:23,600
unexpected shadow emerged. A new craze
4440
03:46:21,040 --> 03:46:26,160
called Bitcoin and Ethereum began to
4441
03:46:23,600 --> 03:46:29,199
consume Nvidia's supply.
4442
03:46:26,160 --> 03:46:32,960
To the world, Nvidia looked invincible,
4443
03:46:29,199 --> 03:46:34,640
but internally Jensen was wary. Jensen
4444
03:46:32,960 --> 03:46:36,160
knew that every bubble eventually
4445
03:46:34,640 --> 03:46:38,560
bursts.
4446
03:46:36,160 --> 03:46:40,880
This period of explosive accidental
4447
03:46:38,560 --> 03:46:44,000
growth from crypto miners was creating a
4448
03:46:40,880 --> 03:46:46,239
shadow over the company's true mission,
4449
03:46:44,000 --> 03:46:49,040
setting the stage for a highstakes legal
4450
03:46:46,239 --> 03:46:50,960
battle over corporate transparency and a
4451
03:46:49,040 --> 03:46:54,920
financial storm that would test the very
4452
03:46:50,960 --> 03:46:54,920
foundations of his leadership.
4453
03:46:58,640 --> 03:47:04,640
In 2018, Nvidia was riding a wave that
4454
03:47:02,080 --> 03:47:07,760
looked like a miracle, but felt like a
4455
03:47:04,640 --> 03:47:09,920
mirage. The explosion of cryptocurrency
4456
03:47:07,760 --> 03:47:12,560
mining had created an insatiable hunger
4457
03:47:09,920 --> 03:47:15,120
for GeForce cards.
4458
03:47:12,560 --> 03:47:18,160
To the outside world, Nvidia's revenue
4459
03:47:15,120 --> 03:47:20,319
was reaching historic heights. However,
4460
03:47:18,160 --> 03:47:23,279
beneath the surface, a dangerous
4461
03:47:20,319 --> 03:47:25,199
ambiguity was growing. Jensen Huang
4462
03:47:23,279 --> 03:47:28,000
insisted that the growth was driven by a
4463
03:47:25,199 --> 03:47:31,920
gaming renaissance, but the reality was
4464
03:47:28,000 --> 03:47:33,920
more volatile. The mirage evaporated in
4465
03:47:31,920 --> 03:47:36,800
late 2018.
4466
03:47:33,920 --> 03:47:40,239
The crypto winter arrived and the demand
4467
03:47:36,800 --> 03:47:42,160
for mining chips vanished overnight.
4468
03:47:40,239 --> 03:47:44,479
Nvidia was left with a massive surplus
4469
03:47:42,160 --> 03:47:47,120
of inventory and the market's reaction
4470
03:47:44,479 --> 03:47:51,359
was brutal. The company's stock price
4471
03:47:47,120 --> 03:47:54,000
plummeted by 28% in a single day.
4472
03:47:51,359 --> 03:47:57,920
The invincible architect of AI was
4473
03:47:54,000 --> 03:47:59,680
suddenly facing a crisis of credibility.
4474
03:47:57,920 --> 03:48:01,439
This financial collapse ignited a
4475
03:47:59,680 --> 03:48:03,279
highstakes legal battle that would
4476
03:48:01,439 --> 03:48:05,359
eventually reach the steps of the US
4477
03:48:03,279 --> 03:48:07,600
Supreme Court.
4478
03:48:05,359 --> 03:48:10,080
A group of institutional investors filed
4479
03:48:07,600 --> 03:48:12,560
a class action lawsuit alleging that
4480
03:48:10,080 --> 03:48:15,439
Jensen Huang had deliberately misled the
4481
03:48:12,560 --> 03:48:19,760
market. The core of the case rested on a
4482
03:48:15,439 --> 03:48:22,239
single devastating word, ci.
4483
03:48:19,760 --> 03:48:24,720
intent to deceive.
4484
03:48:22,239 --> 03:48:26,720
The accusation was sharp. Investors
4485
03:48:24,720 --> 03:48:28,880
claimed that internal Nvidia reports
4486
03:48:26,720 --> 03:48:31,439
clearly showed over a billion dollars in
4487
03:48:28,880 --> 03:48:34,160
revenue attributed to gamers was
4488
03:48:31,439 --> 03:48:36,399
actually coming from crypto miners.
4489
03:48:34,160 --> 03:48:38,720
Jensen fought back, defending his
4490
03:48:36,399 --> 03:48:40,800
intellectual honesty and arguing that
4491
03:48:38,720 --> 03:48:43,840
the expert opinions used against him
4492
03:48:40,800 --> 03:48:46,160
were nothing more than speculation.
4493
03:48:43,840 --> 03:48:48,479
This battle known as petition number
4494
03:48:46,160 --> 03:48:50,560
23-970
4495
03:48:48,479 --> 03:48:53,279
became a landmark moment for Silicon
4496
03:48:50,560 --> 03:48:55,359
Valley, questioning how much a CEO must
4497
03:48:53,279 --> 03:48:57,199
disclose when their technology
4498
03:48:55,359 --> 03:49:00,319
accidentally conquers a market they
4499
03:48:57,199 --> 03:49:02,800
didn't intend to lead.
4500
03:49:00,319 --> 03:49:04,640
While lawyers argued in Washington,
4501
03:49:02,800 --> 03:49:07,359
Jensen was already looking past the
4502
03:49:04,640 --> 03:49:09,760
wreckage. He didn't let the legal storm
4503
03:49:07,359 --> 03:49:12,319
or the inventory crisis slowed down his
4504
03:49:09,760 --> 03:49:14,960
ultimate plan. He doubled down on the
4505
03:49:12,319 --> 03:49:17,520
data center, acquiring Melanox for $7
4506
03:49:14,960 --> 03:49:20,560
billion to control the highways between
4507
03:49:17,520 --> 03:49:22,720
his chips. He was preparing for a world
4508
03:49:20,560 --> 03:49:25,359
where AI wouldn't just be a research
4509
03:49:22,720 --> 03:49:27,520
project, but the operating system of the
4510
03:49:25,359 --> 03:49:30,239
entire planet.
4511
03:49:27,520 --> 03:49:32,720
The storm of 2018 had been a warning.
4512
03:49:30,239 --> 03:49:36,439
The era of generative AI was about to
4513
03:49:32,720 --> 03:49:36,439
provide the answer.
4514
03:49:40,319 --> 03:49:45,120
By 2022,
4515
03:49:42,160 --> 03:49:47,279
the world had changed. The launch of
4516
03:49:45,120 --> 03:49:50,239
Chad GPT signaled the arrival of the
4517
03:49:47,279 --> 03:49:53,520
generative AI era and Nvidia was the
4518
03:49:50,239 --> 03:49:55,600
only company prepared to power it.
4519
03:49:53,520 --> 03:49:58,560
But as Jensen Huang stood on the brink
4520
03:49:55,600 --> 03:50:01,680
of total market dominance, a new wall
4521
03:49:58,560 --> 03:50:04,640
was built, not by a competitor, but by
4522
03:50:01,680 --> 03:50:06,960
the US government. Washington imposed
4523
03:50:04,640 --> 03:50:10,000
strict export controls on high-end AI
4524
03:50:06,960 --> 03:50:12,399
chips. For Nvidia, the stakes were
4525
03:50:10,000 --> 03:50:14,319
astronomical.
4526
03:50:12,399 --> 03:50:17,199
According to the geographical revenue
4527
03:50:14,319 --> 03:50:20,479
data, China accounted for approximately
4528
03:50:17,199 --> 03:50:22,319
20% to 25% of the company's total
4529
03:50:20,479 --> 03:50:24,720
business.
4530
03:50:22,319 --> 03:50:27,279
Overnight, Jensen had to navigate a
4531
03:50:24,720 --> 03:50:29,040
geopolitical minefield, redesigning
4532
03:50:27,279 --> 03:50:31,199
chips specifically to comply with
4533
03:50:29,040 --> 03:50:33,040
regulations while trying to keep his
4534
03:50:31,199 --> 03:50:35,279
most important market from slipping
4535
03:50:33,040 --> 03:50:37,600
away.
4536
03:50:35,279 --> 03:50:39,520
Jensen's answer to the geopolitical and
4537
03:50:37,600 --> 03:50:41,040
technical pressure was the Blackwell
4538
03:50:39,520 --> 03:50:44,640
architecture.
4539
03:50:41,040 --> 03:50:48,640
If the H100 was a spark, Blackwall was a
4540
03:50:44,640 --> 03:50:51,359
sun. Packing an incredible 208 billion
4541
03:50:48,640 --> 03:50:53,279
transistors, it delivered up to 30 times
4542
03:50:51,359 --> 03:50:55,760
the performance of its predecessor for
4543
03:50:53,279 --> 03:50:57,680
certain AI tasks.
4544
03:50:55,760 --> 03:51:00,399
But Blackwell represented a deeper
4545
03:50:57,680 --> 03:51:03,359
strategic shift. Nvidia was no longer
4546
03:51:00,399 --> 03:51:06,319
just a chipmaker.
4547
03:51:03,359 --> 03:51:07,840
Jensen was now building entire AI
4548
03:51:06,319 --> 03:51:10,000
factories.
4549
03:51:07,840 --> 03:51:12,399
By integrating Melanox's networking
4550
03:51:10,000 --> 03:51:14,399
technology, he controlled the highways
4551
03:51:12,399 --> 03:51:16,479
that allowed thousands of chips to talk
4552
03:51:14,399 --> 03:51:19,040
to each other as if they were a single
4553
03:51:16,479 --> 03:51:21,279
giant brain.
4554
03:51:19,040 --> 03:51:23,199
This system on a cluster approach meant
4555
03:51:21,279 --> 03:51:25,680
that even if a competitor produced a
4556
03:51:23,199 --> 03:51:27,359
faster individual chip, they couldn't
4557
03:51:25,680 --> 03:51:30,319
compete with the sheer efficiency of the
4558
03:51:27,359 --> 03:51:32,960
Nvidia ecosystem.
4559
03:51:30,319 --> 03:51:36,239
The financial results were staggering.
4560
03:51:32,960 --> 03:51:40,160
By early 2024, Nvidia's data center
4561
03:51:36,239 --> 03:51:44,880
revenue had surged to over $47 billion,
4562
03:51:40,160 --> 03:51:47,680
a 217% increase in a single year. The
4563
03:51:44,880 --> 03:51:50,319
company was operating with 78.4%
4564
03:51:47,680 --> 03:51:52,720
gross margins. Profit levels usually
4565
03:51:50,319 --> 03:51:55,279
reserved for software giants, not
4566
03:51:52,720 --> 03:51:58,960
hardware manufacturers.
4567
03:51:55,279 --> 03:52:02,319
On June 18th, 2024, Nvidia became the
4568
03:51:58,960 --> 03:52:05,120
most valuable company on the planet.
4569
03:52:02,319 --> 03:52:08,319
Yet, even as he stood at the summit,
4570
03:52:05,120 --> 03:52:11,199
Jensen refused to relax. He looked the
4571
03:52:08,319 --> 03:52:13,840
60-year history of semiconductors, the
4572
03:52:11,199 --> 03:52:16,560
rise and fall of Intel, the cycles of
4573
03:52:13,840 --> 03:52:18,720
Samsung and TI, and he knew that being
4574
03:52:16,560 --> 03:52:22,080
on top was the most dangerous place to
4575
03:52:18,720 --> 03:52:25,439
be. His next challenge wouldn't just be
4576
03:52:22,080 --> 03:52:29,080
about chips. It would be about giving AI
4577
03:52:25,439 --> 03:52:29,080
a physical body.
4578
03:52:32,880 --> 03:52:38,000
In 2024, Jensen Hang had already
4579
03:52:35,840 --> 03:52:40,399
conquered the digital world, but his
4580
03:52:38,000 --> 03:52:43,040
eyes were fixed on a new frontier, the
4581
03:52:40,399 --> 03:52:45,920
physical one. He declared that the next
4582
03:52:43,040 --> 03:52:47,760
wave of AI would be physical AI.
4583
03:52:45,920 --> 03:52:50,800
Intelligence that doesn't just process
4584
03:52:47,760 --> 03:52:52,640
text or images, but understands the laws
4585
03:52:50,800 --> 03:52:54,960
of physics.
4586
03:52:52,640 --> 03:52:57,920
Everything that moves from autonomous
4587
03:52:54,960 --> 03:53:01,120
cars to humanoid robots would eventually
4588
03:52:57,920 --> 03:53:03,439
be powered by an Nvidia brain.
4589
03:53:01,120 --> 03:53:07,199
This identifies it as the third pillar
4590
03:53:03,439 --> 03:53:10,160
of Nvidia's future. To win this race,
4591
03:53:07,199 --> 03:53:12,239
Jensen isn't just building chips. He is
4592
03:53:10,160 --> 03:53:14,399
building the omniverse.
4593
03:53:12,239 --> 03:53:16,560
This is a digital world where robots are
4594
03:53:14,399 --> 03:53:19,439
trained millions of times in a virtual
4595
03:53:16,560 --> 03:53:21,600
simulation before they ever step into a
4596
03:53:19,439 --> 03:53:24,319
real factory.
4597
03:53:21,600 --> 03:53:26,399
By the time a robot starts its job, it
4598
03:53:24,319 --> 03:53:29,600
has already lived a thousand lifetimes
4599
03:53:26,399 --> 03:53:32,239
of experience. Jensen's strategy is a
4600
03:53:29,600 --> 03:53:34,479
total vertical integration. He is
4601
03:53:32,239 --> 03:53:36,479
transforming Nvidia into a provider of
4602
03:53:34,479 --> 03:53:38,720
AI factories.
4603
03:53:36,479 --> 03:53:41,120
He believes that in the future, every
4604
03:53:38,720 --> 03:53:43,359
company will have two factories, one
4605
03:53:41,120 --> 03:53:46,479
that produces physical goods and a
4606
03:53:43,359 --> 03:53:48,560
digital one that produces intelligence.
4607
03:53:46,479 --> 03:53:50,640
With the Melanox networking, high-speed
4608
03:53:48,560 --> 03:53:53,199
highways, and the CUDA software
4609
03:53:50,640 --> 03:53:54,960
fortress, Jensen has ensured that the
4610
03:53:53,199 --> 03:53:58,399
entire infrastructure of this new
4611
03:53:54,960 --> 03:54:01,120
industrial revolution runs on Nvidia.
4612
03:53:58,399 --> 03:54:03,199
When asked about his legacy, Jensen
4613
03:54:01,120 --> 03:54:06,000
doesn't talk about stock prices or
4614
03:54:03,199 --> 03:54:08,319
trillions of dollars. He talks about
4615
03:54:06,000 --> 03:54:09,920
material sciences and scientific
4616
03:54:08,319 --> 03:54:12,080
discovery.
4617
03:54:09,920 --> 03:54:14,720
He believes AI will give humans
4618
03:54:12,080 --> 03:54:17,439
superpowers, helping us solve climate
4619
03:54:14,720 --> 03:54:19,680
change, cure diseases, and handle the
4620
03:54:17,439 --> 03:54:22,640
dangerous and mundane task so we can
4621
03:54:19,680 --> 03:54:25,640
focus on what truly makes us human,
4622
03:54:22,640 --> 03:54:25,640
curiosity.
4623
03:54:28,239 --> 03:54:32,640
By 2025,
4624
03:54:30,239 --> 03:54:34,399
the world had entered a state of compute
4625
03:54:32,640 --> 03:54:37,520
geopolitics.
4626
03:54:34,399 --> 03:54:40,080
Nvidia was no longer just a company. It
4627
03:54:37,520 --> 03:54:43,279
had become a strategic resource similar
4628
03:54:40,080 --> 03:54:46,880
to oil or grain. The launch of the
4629
03:54:43,279 --> 03:54:49,680
Blackwell B200 hadn't just met demand.
4630
03:54:46,880 --> 03:54:53,199
It had ignited a global scramble.
4631
03:54:49,680 --> 03:54:56,000
Nations like Japan, France, and the UAE
4632
03:54:53,199 --> 03:54:57,600
began building sovereign AI clouds.
4633
03:54:56,000 --> 03:55:00,000
Realizing that depending on a few
4634
03:54:57,600 --> 03:55:02,960
Silicon Valley giants for intelligence
4635
03:55:00,000 --> 03:55:06,319
was a national security risk.
4636
03:55:02,960 --> 03:55:10,160
But as 2025 progressed, a new whisper
4637
03:55:06,319 --> 03:55:13,040
began to haunt the industry. The wall.
4638
03:55:10,160 --> 03:55:15,920
For years, AI progress relied on scaling
4639
03:55:13,040 --> 03:55:18,160
laws. The idea that more data and more
4640
03:55:15,920 --> 03:55:22,160
GPUs would inevitably lead to more
4641
03:55:18,160 --> 03:55:24,880
intelligence. However, in 2026, the
4642
03:55:22,160 --> 03:55:27,439
returns are starting to diminish. Data
4643
03:55:24,880 --> 03:55:29,439
centers are becoming so massive, they
4644
03:55:27,439 --> 03:55:31,920
require their own dedicated nuclear
4645
03:55:29,439 --> 03:55:35,439
power plants. and the lowhanging fruit
4646
03:55:31,920 --> 03:55:37,680
of internet data has been exhausted.
4647
03:55:35,439 --> 03:55:40,319
Jensen's response to the wall is
4648
03:55:37,680 --> 03:55:42,399
typically defiant. He pivoted the
4649
03:55:40,319 --> 03:55:46,319
industry towards synthetic data and
4650
03:55:42,399 --> 03:55:48,800
reasoning models. In 2026, Nvidia's
4651
03:55:46,319 --> 03:55:53,040
focus has shifted from simply training
4652
03:55:48,800 --> 03:55:55,359
AI to inference at scale. The goal is no
4653
03:55:53,040 --> 03:55:57,840
longer just to build a model that knows
4654
03:55:55,359 --> 03:56:00,000
everything, but to build a system that
4655
03:55:57,840 --> 03:56:02,399
thinks through a problem for days, if
4656
03:56:00,000 --> 03:56:06,160
necessary, using massive clusters of
4657
03:56:02,399 --> 03:56:09,359
GPUs to reach a breakthrough.
4658
03:56:06,160 --> 03:56:12,640
The competition in 2026 has never been
4659
03:56:09,359 --> 03:56:15,040
fiercer. Nvidia's biggest customers,
4660
03:56:12,640 --> 03:56:17,199
Amazon, Google, and Microsoft, have
4661
03:56:15,040 --> 03:56:19,199
become its most dangerous rivals,
4662
03:56:17,199 --> 03:56:23,600
pouring billions into their own custom
4663
03:56:19,199 --> 03:56:26,560
AI chips to escape the NVIDIA tax. Yet,
4664
03:56:23,600 --> 03:56:28,960
the software mode remains unreached.
4665
03:56:26,560 --> 03:56:31,279
While others build chips, Jensen is
4666
03:56:28,960 --> 03:56:33,760
building the entire ecosystem, the
4667
03:56:31,279 --> 03:56:35,279
networking, the libraries, and the
4668
03:56:33,760 --> 03:56:38,080
pre-trained models that make a
4669
03:56:35,279 --> 03:56:41,439
competitor's hardware feel like a relic
4670
03:56:38,080 --> 03:56:44,160
before it even leaves the factory.
4671
03:56:41,439 --> 03:56:45,840
In this era, Jensen Hong has become one
4672
03:56:44,160 --> 03:56:48,720
of the world's most influential
4673
03:56:45,840 --> 03:56:50,960
diplomat. He navigates a world where the
4674
03:56:48,720 --> 03:56:52,800
power grid is the new bottleneck and
4675
03:56:50,960 --> 03:56:54,720
where a single shipment of chips can
4676
03:56:52,800 --> 03:56:56,399
determine the economic future of a
4677
03:56:54,720 --> 03:56:59,279
country.
4678
03:56:56,399 --> 03:57:02,399
The trillion dollar question of 2026 is
4679
03:56:59,279 --> 03:57:04,479
no longer if AI will change the world,
4680
03:57:02,399 --> 03:57:07,800
but who will own the infrastructure of
4681
03:57:04,479 --> 03:57:07,800
that change.
4682
03:57:11,120 --> 03:57:15,600
The story of Nvidia is often told as a
4683
03:57:13,600 --> 03:57:18,560
series of lucky breaks or inevitable
4684
03:57:15,600 --> 03:57:21,600
triumphs. But as we look at the empire
4685
03:57:18,560 --> 03:57:24,000
Jensen Hang has built, the reality is
4686
03:57:21,600 --> 03:57:25,920
far more deliberate and far more
4687
03:57:24,000 --> 03:57:28,800
precarious.
4688
03:57:25,920 --> 03:57:30,640
In 2026, the company stands at the
4689
03:57:28,800 --> 03:57:34,399
center of the greatest industrial shift
4690
03:57:30,640 --> 03:57:37,520
in human history. Yet for Jensen, the
4691
03:57:34,399 --> 03:57:40,800
valuation of three, four, or 5 trillion
4692
03:57:37,520 --> 03:57:42,880
is a lagging indicator. The true metric
4693
03:57:40,800 --> 03:57:44,880
is the oxygen.
4694
03:57:42,880 --> 03:57:46,720
Throughout his journey, from the dish
4695
03:57:44,880 --> 03:57:49,439
pits of Denny's to the halls of the
4696
03:57:46,720 --> 03:57:52,800
Supreme Court, Jensen has maintained a
4697
03:57:49,439 --> 03:57:55,359
philosophy of intellectual honesty.
4698
03:57:52,800 --> 03:57:58,080
He admits when the technology is wrong.
4699
03:57:55,359 --> 03:58:00,080
He pivots when the market shifts. And he
4700
03:57:58,080 --> 03:58:02,640
invests billions when the world calls
4701
03:58:00,080 --> 03:58:04,319
him a fall. He has turned a
4702
03:58:02,640 --> 03:58:07,040
semiconductor company into a
4703
03:58:04,319 --> 03:58:10,080
geopolitical superpower, a software
4704
03:58:07,040 --> 03:58:12,399
fortress, and the primary architect of a
4705
03:58:10,080 --> 03:58:14,479
new form of life.
4706
03:58:12,399 --> 03:58:17,040
Critics ask if Nvidia is a bubble
4707
03:58:14,479 --> 03:58:19,840
waiting to burst, or if the scaling laws
4708
03:58:17,040 --> 03:58:21,760
of AI will eventually hit a dead end.
4709
03:58:19,840 --> 03:58:24,319
But Jensen doesn't operate on the
4710
03:58:21,760 --> 03:58:26,640
timeline of a stock market cycle. He
4711
03:58:24,319 --> 03:58:28,319
operates on the timeline of human
4712
03:58:26,640 --> 03:58:30,960
evolution.
4713
03:58:28,319 --> 03:58:32,479
He isn't just selling chips. He is
4714
03:58:30,960 --> 03:58:35,199
selling the marginal cost of
4715
03:58:32,479 --> 03:58:37,920
intelligence, making the most valuable
4716
03:58:35,199 --> 03:58:40,800
resource in the universe so abundant
4717
03:58:37,920 --> 03:58:43,359
that it changes the very definition of
4718
03:58:40,800 --> 03:58:45,520
what is possible.
4719
03:58:43,359 --> 03:58:47,439
Jensen often says that he wakes up every
4720
03:58:45,520 --> 03:58:48,960
morning with the same feeling he had in
4721
03:58:47,439 --> 03:58:50,800
1993.
4722
03:58:48,960 --> 03:58:53,920
the feeling that the company is going
4723
03:58:50,800 --> 03:58:56,560
out of business. It is this productive
4724
03:58:53,920 --> 03:58:59,680
paranoia that prevents the cyclical trap
4725
03:58:56,560 --> 03:59:01,359
that claim the giants of the past.
4726
03:58:59,680 --> 03:59:04,160
He doesn't want to be the king of a
4727
03:59:01,359 --> 03:59:07,279
legacy. He wants to be the architect of
4728
03:59:04,160 --> 03:59:10,160
a future that hasn't even been imagined
4729
03:59:07,279 --> 03:59:13,600
yet.
4730
03:59:10,160 --> 03:59:16,080
Run, don't walk. Either you are running
4731
03:59:13,600 --> 03:59:19,760
for food or you are running from being
4732
03:59:16,080 --> 03:59:24,920
food. In the era of the digital brain,
4733
03:59:19,760 --> 03:59:24,920
the race has only just begun.
4734
04:00:51,199 --> 04:00:56,080
At the edge of the world in a country
4735
04:00:53,439 --> 04:00:58,479
with more sheep than people, one of the
4736
04:00:56,080 --> 04:01:01,760
most powerful men in Silicon Valley
4737
04:00:58,479 --> 04:01:05,760
built an escape hatch. Not a vacation
4738
04:01:01,760 --> 04:01:08,640
home, not a tax shelter, a contingency
4739
04:01:05,760 --> 04:01:12,239
plan.
4740
04:01:08,640 --> 04:01:14,399
In 2011, a billionaire quietly secured
4741
04:01:12,239 --> 04:01:17,359
citizenship in New Zealand after
4742
04:01:14,399 --> 04:01:21,600
spending just days in the country. A
4743
04:01:17,359 --> 04:01:23,520
legal backdoor, a geopolitical lifeboat
4744
04:01:21,600 --> 04:01:26,479
deep in the rugged terrain of New
4745
04:01:23,520 --> 04:01:30,479
Zealand's South Island, Peter Teal owns
4746
04:01:26,479 --> 04:01:34,080
a vast private estate, remote, secluded,
4747
04:01:30,479 --> 04:01:36,479
and far from the centers of power.
4748
04:01:34,080 --> 04:01:39,279
While most billionaires buy yachts or
4749
04:01:36,479 --> 04:01:43,680
private islands feel secured something
4750
04:01:39,279 --> 04:01:46,080
more strategic, New Zealand citizenship
4751
04:01:43,680 --> 04:01:49,040
and a vast estate in one of the most
4752
04:01:46,080 --> 04:01:51,600
remote democracies on Earth.
4753
04:01:49,040 --> 04:01:53,680
The purchase price for this geopolitical
4754
04:01:51,600 --> 04:01:57,040
insurance policy.
4755
04:01:53,680 --> 04:01:59,840
In 2011, Theel obtained New Zealand
4756
04:01:57,040 --> 04:02:02,080
citizenship after spending just 12 days
4757
04:01:59,840 --> 04:02:05,199
in the country over the previous 2
4758
04:02:02,080 --> 04:02:08,840
years. a process that normally requires
4759
04:02:05,199 --> 04:02:08,840
years of residency.
4760
04:02:09,040 --> 04:02:14,160
The investment that secured this
4761
04:02:10,880 --> 04:02:16,800
exceptional pathway, approximately $7
4762
04:02:14,160 --> 04:02:19,279
million in local assets and business
4763
04:02:16,800 --> 04:02:22,479
investments.
4764
04:02:19,279 --> 04:02:26,239
The centerpiece, a 477
4765
04:02:22,479 --> 04:02:29,920
acre estate near Lake Wanaka, purchased
4766
04:02:26,239 --> 04:02:33,120
for 13.5 million New Zealand,
4767
04:02:29,920 --> 04:02:35,520
about $10 million.
4768
04:02:33,120 --> 04:02:40,160
When New Zealand media exposed the deal
4769
04:02:35,520 --> 04:02:41,840
in 2017, it sparked a national scandal.
4770
04:02:40,160 --> 04:02:43,359
>> Hi, Benedict. Nice to talk to you again.
4771
04:02:41,840 --> 04:02:45,359
So, when we last spoke, you told us that
4772
04:02:43,359 --> 04:02:48,000
Peter Teal was granted citizenship after
4773
04:02:45,359 --> 04:02:51,120
having only visited New Zealand four
4774
04:02:48,000 --> 04:02:53,359
times for an unknown number of days
4775
04:02:51,120 --> 04:02:55,359
because the documents had that
4776
04:02:53,359 --> 04:02:57,680
information redacted. Right.
4777
04:02:55,359 --> 04:03:00,399
>> Politicians called it citizenship for
4778
04:02:57,680 --> 04:03:02,319
sale. Opposition leaders demanded
4779
04:03:00,399 --> 04:03:04,640
investigations,
4780
04:03:02,319 --> 04:03:07,760
but Theel had already achieved his
4781
04:03:04,640 --> 04:03:09,600
objective, a legal escape hatch in the
4782
04:03:07,760 --> 04:03:11,279
world's most politically stable
4783
04:03:09,600 --> 04:03:14,160
democracy,
4784
04:03:11,279 --> 04:03:17,920
a geopolitical insurance policy that
4785
04:03:14,160 --> 04:03:20,160
money can buy.
4786
04:03:17,920 --> 04:03:22,479
Why would a man who helped build the
4787
04:03:20,160 --> 04:03:26,080
digital future prepare for the collapse
4788
04:03:22,479 --> 04:03:29,439
of the physical one? What does he see
4789
04:03:26,080 --> 04:03:33,439
that others don't? Yes, it's the uh 1
4790
04:03:29,439 --> 04:03:36,160
Thessalonians 5:3, the uh the the slogan
4791
04:03:33,439 --> 04:03:38,720
of the Antichrist is peace and safety.
4792
04:03:36,160 --> 04:03:40,640
And so, which is nothing wrong with
4793
04:03:38,720 --> 04:03:42,720
peace and safety, but uh you have to
4794
04:03:40,640 --> 04:03:44,880
sort of imagine that it resonates very
4795
04:03:42,720 --> 04:03:46,800
differently in a world where the stakes
4796
04:03:44,880 --> 04:03:48,160
are so absolute, where the stakes are so
4797
04:03:46,800 --> 04:03:52,479
extreme, where the you know the
4798
04:03:48,160 --> 04:03:54,800
alternative to peace and safety is, you
4799
04:03:52,479 --> 04:03:56,479
know, Armageddon and the destruction of
4800
04:03:54,800 --> 04:03:58,880
all things.
4801
04:03:56,479 --> 04:04:02,319
He is one of the most polarizing figures
4802
04:03:58,880 --> 04:04:05,279
in Silicon Valley. To some, a visionary
4803
04:04:02,319 --> 04:04:07,920
genius who saw the future early. To
4804
04:04:05,279 --> 04:04:10,080
others, the shadow financier of
4805
04:04:07,920 --> 04:04:13,040
movements and candidates who challenged
4806
04:04:10,080 --> 04:04:16,960
liberal democratic norms.
4807
04:04:13,040 --> 04:04:19,359
This is not fear. This is strategy.
4808
04:04:16,960 --> 04:04:23,120
For decades, Peter Theel has made the
4809
04:04:19,359 --> 04:04:26,160
same bet over and over again. Bet
4810
04:04:23,120 --> 04:04:30,800
against consensus. better against the
4811
04:04:26,160 --> 04:04:33,279
crowd, better against the system itself.
4812
04:04:30,800 --> 04:04:35,840
To understand why he built a fortress at
4813
04:04:33,279 --> 04:04:39,199
the end of the earth, we have to go back
4814
04:04:35,840 --> 04:04:41,520
to a childhood of constant displacement.
4815
04:04:39,199 --> 04:04:44,000
To a chessboard where consensus meant
4816
04:04:41,520 --> 04:04:46,800
nothing, to a company that tried to
4817
04:04:44,000 --> 04:04:50,359
replace money and another that learned
4818
04:04:46,800 --> 04:04:50,359
to see everything.
4819
04:04:50,560 --> 04:04:55,920
But the estate is more than a luxury
4820
04:04:53,040 --> 04:04:59,199
retreat. It is a fortress designed for
4821
04:04:55,920 --> 04:05:01,840
civilizational uncertainty.
4822
04:04:59,199 --> 04:05:04,479
Off-grid power systems, advanced
4823
04:05:01,840 --> 04:05:07,359
security infrastructure, multiple
4824
04:05:04,479 --> 04:05:09,760
evacuation routes through the mountains.
4825
04:05:07,359 --> 04:05:11,600
Not built for comfort, built for
4826
04:05:09,760 --> 04:05:14,319
continuity.
4827
04:05:11,600 --> 04:05:16,319
While the world debates progress, Peter
4828
04:05:14,319 --> 04:05:17,920
Theel is preparing for a different
4829
04:05:16,319 --> 04:05:20,720
possibility.
4830
04:05:17,920 --> 04:05:24,199
Not how to build the future, how to
4831
04:05:20,720 --> 04:05:24,199
survive it.
4832
04:05:25,439 --> 04:05:32,160
The architect of dissident
4833
04:05:29,040 --> 04:05:36,640
total estimated value of the contingency
4834
04:05:32,160 --> 04:05:40,000
infrastructure 20 to $30 million.
4835
04:05:36,640 --> 04:05:42,239
Not for lifestyle, not for prestige, but
4836
04:05:40,000 --> 04:05:44,560
for the day the system he helped build
4837
04:05:42,239 --> 04:05:46,560
no longer holds.
4838
04:05:44,560 --> 04:05:49,439
He didn't build this because he panics
4839
04:05:46,560 --> 04:05:52,000
easily. He built it because he has
4840
04:05:49,439 --> 04:05:54,560
always believed that the crowd is wrong
4841
04:05:52,000 --> 04:05:58,000
and the future belongs to those willing
4842
04:05:54,560 --> 04:06:01,359
to stand apart from it. Every fortress
4843
04:05:58,000 --> 04:06:03,600
begins as an idea and Peter Theel has
4844
04:06:01,359 --> 04:06:07,560
been building intellectual fortresses
4845
04:06:03,600 --> 04:06:07,560
since he was a child.
4846
04:06:11,520 --> 04:06:16,800
Before he was a billionaire, before he
4847
04:06:14,000 --> 04:06:18,319
funded political outsiders, before he
4848
04:06:16,800 --> 04:06:21,359
built machines that could see
4849
04:06:18,319 --> 04:06:23,199
everything, he was a boy who never
4850
04:06:21,359 --> 04:06:26,000
stayed in one place long enough to
4851
04:06:23,199 --> 04:06:27,920
believe the world made sense.
4852
04:06:26,000 --> 04:06:31,439
So, he searched for a world where the
4853
04:06:27,920 --> 04:06:33,279
rules didn't change. He found it on a
4854
04:06:31,439 --> 04:06:35,600
chessboard.
4855
04:06:33,279 --> 04:06:37,680
To understand Peter Theel, you must
4856
04:06:35,600 --> 04:06:40,319
understand what it means to be a
4857
04:06:37,680 --> 04:06:43,120
permanent outsider.
4858
04:06:40,319 --> 04:06:45,439
Born in Frankfurt, West Germany, Peter
4859
04:06:43,120 --> 04:06:49,120
Theel spent part of his early childhood
4860
04:06:45,439 --> 04:06:51,439
in southwest Africa, now Namibia, before
4861
04:06:49,120 --> 04:06:54,800
growing up mainly in the United States
4862
04:06:51,439 --> 04:06:57,120
between Ohio and California.
4863
04:06:54,800 --> 04:07:00,399
Before he was a teenager, he had already
4864
04:06:57,120 --> 04:07:02,720
experienced life on multiple continents,
4865
04:07:00,399 --> 04:07:04,720
never staying long enough to feel fully
4866
04:07:02,720 --> 04:07:07,439
at home.
4867
04:07:04,720 --> 04:07:11,279
He didn't have a hometown. He didn't
4868
04:07:07,439 --> 04:07:13,680
have a tribe. He only had his own mind.
4869
04:07:11,279 --> 04:07:17,040
And in that isolation, he found a
4870
04:07:13,680 --> 04:07:20,040
language that didn't require a passport.
4871
04:07:17,040 --> 04:07:20,040
Chess.
4872
04:07:20,560 --> 04:07:24,880
For a child who changed continents
4873
04:07:22,720 --> 04:07:28,160
before he could even make friends, the
4874
04:07:24,880 --> 04:07:31,199
outside world was unpredictable noise.
4875
04:07:28,160 --> 04:07:33,199
But the board, the board was the only
4876
04:07:31,199 --> 04:07:36,399
place where the rules didn't change
4877
04:07:33,199 --> 04:07:39,279
depending on the country.
4878
04:07:36,399 --> 04:07:41,600
His
4879
04:07:39,279 --> 04:07:44,080
father, an engineer trained in a culture
4880
04:07:41,600 --> 04:07:46,399
of precision and systems thinking,
4881
04:07:44,080 --> 04:07:49,920
passed on a belief that reality could be
4882
04:07:46,399 --> 04:07:52,479
understood and optimized.
4883
04:07:49,920 --> 04:07:55,520
While other children sought to fit in,
4884
04:07:52,479 --> 04:07:58,319
Peter sought the edge. He learned that
4885
04:07:55,520 --> 04:08:00,000
the consensus of the crowd is usually a
4886
04:07:58,319 --> 04:08:02,560
distraction.
4887
04:08:00,000 --> 04:08:05,199
If everyone is running toward the ball,
4888
04:08:02,560 --> 04:08:06,800
you run toward where the ball is going
4889
04:08:05,199 --> 04:08:08,960
to be.
4890
04:08:06,800 --> 04:08:10,800
Chess is the ultimate antidote to
4891
04:08:08,960 --> 04:08:12,800
consensus.
4892
04:08:10,800 --> 04:08:15,520
In a crowd, you can hide behind a
4893
04:08:12,800 --> 04:08:18,640
popular opinion. In chess, you are
4894
04:08:15,520 --> 04:08:20,880
either right or you are dead. There is
4895
04:08:18,640 --> 04:08:23,520
no middle ground. There is no social
4896
04:08:20,880 --> 04:08:25,520
construction of the board.
4897
04:08:23,520 --> 04:08:28,160
He became a serious tournament chess
4898
04:08:25,520 --> 04:08:30,960
player drawn to a world where rules were
4899
04:08:28,160 --> 04:08:34,720
fixed, outcomes were earned, and
4900
04:08:30,960 --> 04:08:38,960
consensus meant nothing.
4901
04:08:34,720 --> 04:08:41,359
Mid1 1980s Stanford University.
4902
04:08:38,960 --> 04:08:43,680
To the world, this was the peak of
4903
04:08:41,359 --> 04:08:46,160
American meritocracy.
4904
04:08:43,680 --> 04:08:47,920
To Theel, it was a factory of
4905
04:08:46,160 --> 04:08:50,000
conformity.
4906
04:08:47,920 --> 04:08:52,399
While his classmates were debating how
4907
04:08:50,000 --> 04:08:54,640
to change the world through activism,
4908
04:08:52,399 --> 04:08:57,279
Theel was wondering why they all sounded
4909
04:08:54,640 --> 04:08:59,359
exactly the same. He saw the
4910
04:08:57,279 --> 04:09:01,520
multiculturalism movement not as
4911
04:08:59,359 --> 04:09:03,680
progress, but as a new form of
4912
04:09:01,520 --> 04:09:06,319
fundamentalism.
4913
04:09:03,680 --> 04:09:09,359
Stanford in the late 1980s was ground
4914
04:09:06,319 --> 04:09:12,160
zero for America's culture wars. Battles
4915
04:09:09,359 --> 04:09:15,199
over multiculturalism, speech, and the
4916
04:09:12,160 --> 04:09:17,520
purpose of higher education.
4917
04:09:15,199 --> 04:09:20,800
Field believed the university was
4918
04:09:17,520 --> 04:09:22,560
drifting toward ideological conformity
4919
04:09:20,800 --> 04:09:26,080
that certain views were becoming
4920
04:09:22,560 --> 04:09:29,760
socially, if not formally, offlimits.
4921
04:09:26,080 --> 04:09:32,800
Here is investment methodology was born.
4922
04:09:29,760 --> 04:09:36,000
Identify what the crowd considers sacred
4923
04:09:32,800 --> 04:09:39,439
and question it.
4924
04:09:36,000 --> 04:09:42,399
If everyone says identity diversity is
4925
04:09:39,439 --> 04:09:45,279
the most important thing, you argue that
4926
04:09:42,399 --> 04:09:47,359
intellectual diversity is the only thing
4927
04:09:45,279 --> 04:09:49,680
that matters.
4928
04:09:47,359 --> 04:09:52,800
He wasn't looking for friends. He was
4929
04:09:49,680 --> 04:09:55,760
looking to recruit others who like him
4930
04:09:52,800 --> 04:09:58,880
did not fear being hated.
4931
04:09:55,760 --> 04:10:01,439
He founded the Stanford Review.
4932
04:09:58,880 --> 04:10:04,640
The paper quickly became one of the most
4933
04:10:01,439 --> 04:10:07,520
controversial publications on campus,
4934
04:10:04,640 --> 04:10:11,359
attacking what field saw as intellectual
4935
04:10:07,520 --> 04:10:13,439
monoculture and political group think.
4936
04:10:11,359 --> 04:10:15,920
He saw that the smartest people in the
4937
04:10:13,439 --> 04:10:19,040
country were all competing for the same
4938
04:10:15,920 --> 04:10:20,880
narrow prizes, thinking the same narrow
4939
04:10:19,040 --> 04:10:24,239
thoughts.
4940
04:10:20,880 --> 04:10:27,680
He did what every top student does. He
4941
04:10:24,239 --> 04:10:29,920
followed the track. After Stanford Law,
4942
04:10:27,680 --> 04:10:32,319
he secured a prestigious federal
4943
04:10:29,920 --> 04:10:34,640
appalate clerkship, the kind of
4944
04:10:32,319 --> 04:10:37,920
credential that opens every elite door
4945
04:10:34,640 --> 04:10:39,920
in America. After his clerkship, he
4946
04:10:37,920 --> 04:10:42,800
joined Sullivan and Cromwell in New
4947
04:10:39,920 --> 04:10:45,840
York, one of the most elite law firms in
4948
04:10:42,800 --> 04:10:48,640
the world. On paper, he had reached the
4949
04:10:45,840 --> 04:10:51,840
summit. Wall Street was his great
4950
04:10:48,640 --> 04:10:54,080
negative epiphany.
4951
04:10:51,840 --> 04:10:56,239
But from his perspective, the brightest
4952
04:10:54,080 --> 04:10:58,319
graduates in America were locked in
4953
04:10:56,239 --> 04:11:01,279
brutal competition for careers they
4954
04:10:58,319 --> 04:11:03,680
didn't even seem to want.
4955
04:11:01,279 --> 04:11:06,319
It looked like Renee Gerard's theory
4956
04:11:03,680 --> 04:11:08,720
made flesh, a system where everyone
4957
04:11:06,319 --> 04:11:11,840
desired the same prize simply because
4958
04:11:08,720 --> 04:11:14,640
everyone else did. Wall Street looked to
4959
04:11:11,840 --> 04:11:17,680
Theo like a laboratory of mimemetic
4960
04:11:14,640 --> 04:11:20,239
rivalry. He realized that if he won that
4961
04:11:17,680 --> 04:11:23,520
race, his prize would be becoming the
4962
04:11:20,239 --> 04:11:26,720
man in the office next door. A copy of a
4963
04:11:23,520 --> 04:11:29,600
copy. The day he lost the opportunity to
4964
04:11:26,720 --> 04:11:33,040
clerk for the US Supreme Court wasn't a
4965
04:11:29,600 --> 04:11:36,319
defeat. It was his liberation.
4966
04:11:33,040 --> 04:11:39,040
He lasted less than a year. But Theo's
4967
04:11:36,319 --> 04:11:41,760
first venture after leaving law was a
4968
04:11:39,040 --> 04:11:43,760
humbling lesson in failure. A lesson
4969
04:11:41,760 --> 04:11:46,720
that would shape everything that came
4970
04:11:43,760 --> 04:11:49,920
after.
4971
04:11:46,720 --> 04:11:52,640
In 1996, he launched Theel Capital
4972
04:11:49,920 --> 04:11:55,680
Management,
4973
04:11:52,640 --> 04:11:58,880
a hedge fund focused on currency trading
4974
04:11:55,680 --> 04:12:01,680
and macroeconomic derivatives.
4975
04:11:58,880 --> 04:12:04,319
The strategy was to make big directional
4976
04:12:01,680 --> 04:12:06,720
bets on interest rates, inflation
4977
04:12:04,319 --> 04:12:10,479
expectations, and foreign exchange
4978
04:12:06,720 --> 04:12:14,000
movements. Initial capital raised $1
4979
04:12:10,479 --> 04:12:16,160
million mostly from Stanford connections
4980
04:12:14,000 --> 04:12:20,040
who believed in the chess prodigy turned
4981
04:12:16,160 --> 04:12:20,040
lawyer turned financia.
4982
04:12:20,800 --> 04:12:26,160
The result was spectacular failure.
4983
04:12:24,000 --> 04:12:29,520
Within the first year, the fund had lost
4984
04:12:26,160 --> 04:12:33,040
significant capital. Industry estimates
4985
04:12:29,520 --> 04:12:36,960
suggest losses between 30 and 40% of the
4986
04:12:33,040 --> 04:12:39,359
initial investment pool. Investors fled.
4987
04:12:36,960 --> 04:12:41,359
Some demanded their remaining money back
4988
04:12:39,359 --> 04:12:43,760
immediately.
4989
04:12:41,359 --> 04:12:45,920
The reputation among finance
4990
04:12:43,760 --> 04:12:48,239
professionals, the people he had walked
4991
04:12:45,920 --> 04:12:50,880
away from at Sullivan and Cromwell, took
4992
04:12:48,239 --> 04:12:54,160
a serious hit.
4993
04:12:50,880 --> 04:12:57,439
He was no longer the Stanford genius. He
4994
04:12:54,160 --> 04:12:59,840
was just another failed trader.
4995
04:12:57,439 --> 04:13:02,399
But this failure taught him the most
4996
04:12:59,840 --> 04:13:05,439
important lesson of his career.
4997
04:13:02,399 --> 04:13:07,840
Competition is for losers.
4998
04:13:05,439 --> 04:13:10,479
Do not compete in crowded markets where
4999
04:13:07,840 --> 04:13:14,239
everyone is making the same trades with
5000
04:13:10,479 --> 04:13:16,640
the same information and the same tools.
5001
04:13:14,239 --> 04:13:19,840
Wall Street was full of extremely smart
5002
04:13:16,640 --> 04:13:22,239
people doing the same macro trades,
5003
04:13:19,840 --> 04:13:25,359
reading the same economic reports,
5004
04:13:22,239 --> 04:13:27,760
betting on the same currency movements.
5005
04:13:25,359 --> 04:13:32,399
It was a zero someum game played by
5006
04:13:27,760 --> 04:13:34,560
thousands of nearly identical players.
5007
04:13:32,399 --> 04:13:37,680
He needed to find a space where the
5008
04:13:34,560 --> 04:13:40,080
rules were still being written. Where
5009
04:13:37,680 --> 04:13:43,359
being first mattered more than being
5010
04:13:40,080 --> 04:13:45,199
best, where a monopoly position was
5011
04:13:43,359 --> 04:13:47,600
still available.
5012
04:13:45,199 --> 04:13:50,000
He needed technology.
5013
04:13:47,600 --> 04:13:53,760
And from the ashes of the capital
5014
04:13:50,000 --> 04:13:56,319
management, a new philosophy was born.
5015
04:13:53,760 --> 04:13:59,520
If you want to create lasting value, you
5016
04:13:56,319 --> 04:14:02,399
have to build a monopoly. This became
5017
04:13:59,520 --> 04:14:06,120
his investing mantra and it would make
5018
04:14:02,399 --> 04:14:06,120
him billions.
5019
04:14:07,680 --> 04:14:12,560
Theel walked away from the firm and went
5020
04:14:09,760 --> 04:14:15,520
back to California not to start a tech
5021
04:14:12,560 --> 04:14:19,120
empire but to try trading then to launch
5022
04:14:15,520 --> 04:14:21,359
a hedge fund. It failed. The system he
5023
04:14:19,120 --> 04:14:25,359
had rejected did not welcome him back as
5024
04:14:21,359 --> 04:14:27,359
a prodigy. It treated him like a nobody.
5025
04:14:25,359 --> 04:14:31,279
That failure would become the last
5026
04:14:27,359 --> 04:14:33,680
lesson before his real beginning. But he
5027
04:14:31,279 --> 04:14:36,319
learned something. If you play the
5028
04:14:33,680 --> 04:14:38,319
system game as everyone else, you've
5029
04:14:36,319 --> 04:14:40,319
already lost.
5030
04:14:38,319 --> 04:14:45,960
The chess master was done with the
5031
04:14:40,319 --> 04:14:45,960
board. He was ready to build his own.
5032
04:14:50,960 --> 04:14:54,399
So this is an ATM. And what we're going
5033
04:14:52,720 --> 04:14:56,720
to do is transform the traditional
5034
04:14:54,399 --> 04:15:00,159
banking industry.
5035
04:14:56,720 --> 04:15:01,760
I do not fit the picture of a banker.
5036
04:15:00,159 --> 04:15:03,840
>> X.com. This is Julie.
5037
04:15:01,760 --> 04:15:06,479
>> Raising $50 million is a matter of
5038
04:15:03,840 --> 04:15:08,640
making a series of phone calls and the
5039
04:15:06,479 --> 04:15:10,640
money is there.
5040
04:15:08,640 --> 04:15:13,199
>> I've sunk the great majority of of my
5041
04:15:10,640 --> 04:15:15,279
net worth into X.com, which is the new
5042
04:15:13,199 --> 04:15:17,359
banking and mutual funds company on the
5043
04:15:15,279 --> 04:15:19,840
internet that I've started.
5044
04:15:17,359 --> 04:15:22,640
December 1998,
5045
04:15:19,840 --> 04:15:25,920
Peter Theel co-founds a company called
5046
04:15:22,640 --> 04:15:28,319
Conffinity with Max Levchin, a brilliant
5047
04:15:25,920 --> 04:15:30,720
Ukrainian-born programmer, and Luke
5048
04:15:28,319 --> 04:15:32,640
Nosk, a fellow Stanford review
5049
04:15:30,720 --> 04:15:35,840
illuminous.
5050
04:15:32,640 --> 04:15:37,840
Initial funding, $300,000 scraped
5051
04:15:35,840 --> 04:15:40,000
together from friends, family, and
5052
04:15:37,840 --> 04:15:42,080
fellow libertarian true believers from
5053
04:15:40,000 --> 04:15:44,479
the Stamford days.
5054
04:15:42,080 --> 04:15:48,399
The original product idea, digital
5055
04:15:44,479 --> 04:15:50,800
wallets on Palm Pilot handheld devices.
5056
04:15:48,399 --> 04:15:53,279
The vision was that people would beam
5057
04:15:50,800 --> 04:15:56,000
money to each other using infrared ports
5058
04:15:53,279 --> 04:15:58,720
on the Palm Pilots
5059
04:15:56,000 --> 04:16:00,239
in coffee shops, at restaurants,
5060
04:15:58,720 --> 04:16:04,600
persontoerson,
5061
04:16:00,239 --> 04:16:04,600
bypassing banks entirely.
5062
04:16:04,800 --> 04:16:12,960
Total users after 6 months of operation,
5063
04:16:08,479 --> 04:16:15,199
12 people. literally 12.
5064
04:16:12,960 --> 04:16:17,920
Most of them were employees and their
5065
04:16:15,199 --> 04:16:21,520
friends testing the system. It was a
5066
04:16:17,920 --> 04:16:24,479
complete and utter flop. The technology
5067
04:16:21,520 --> 04:16:29,439
worked, but nobody cared. Nobody wanted
5068
04:16:24,479 --> 04:16:32,800
it. March 2000, Confinity pivots hard
5069
04:16:29,439 --> 04:16:35,120
and launches a new feature, email-based
5070
04:16:32,800 --> 04:16:38,239
money transfers.
5071
04:16:35,120 --> 04:16:40,640
You send money to any email address. The
5072
04:16:38,239 --> 04:16:43,120
recipient gets a notification, creates
5073
04:16:40,640 --> 04:16:46,159
an account, and the money is there.
5074
04:16:43,120 --> 04:16:49,600
Simple, instant, revolutionary. The name
5075
04:16:46,159 --> 04:16:52,479
of this new service, PayPal.
5076
04:16:49,600 --> 04:16:55,040
Within weeks, user growth exploded at a
5077
04:16:52,479 --> 04:16:56,640
rate nobody had ever seen in financial
5078
04:16:55,040 --> 04:17:01,279
services.
5079
04:16:56,640 --> 04:17:06,720
Month one, 10,000 users. Month three,
5080
04:17:01,279 --> 04:17:11,760
100,000 users. Month 6, 1 million users.
5081
04:17:06,720 --> 04:17:14,080
Month 12, 5 million users.
5082
04:17:11,760 --> 04:17:16,399
This was the fastest user adoption rate
5083
04:17:14,080 --> 04:17:19,279
in the entire history of financial
5084
04:17:16,399 --> 04:17:21,760
services. Faster than credit cards,
5085
04:17:19,279 --> 04:17:23,840
faster than checking accounts, faster
5086
04:17:21,760 --> 04:17:26,319
than anything.
5087
04:17:23,840 --> 04:17:29,439
But here is what most people do not know
5088
04:17:26,319 --> 04:17:32,720
about PayPal's growth. Here is the
5089
04:17:29,439 --> 04:17:35,920
secret that the mythology leaves out.
5090
04:17:32,720 --> 04:17:40,239
PayPal's explosive user acquisition was
5091
04:17:35,920 --> 04:17:45,199
not organic. It was not word of mouth.
5092
04:17:40,239 --> 04:17:47,439
It was not viral in the natural sense.
5093
04:17:45,199 --> 04:17:51,359
They literally bought their users with
5094
04:17:47,439 --> 04:17:54,239
cash. The strategy was elegantly simple
5095
04:17:51,359 --> 04:17:57,279
and brutally expensive.
5096
04:17:54,239 --> 04:18:00,479
Sign up for a PayPal account, get $10
5097
04:17:57,279 --> 04:18:04,000
deposited instantly. Refer a friend who
5098
04:18:00,479 --> 04:18:08,159
signs up gets another $10. Your friend
5099
04:18:04,000 --> 04:18:11,600
also gets $10. Cost per acquisition 20
5100
04:18:08,159 --> 04:18:15,120
to $40 per user depending on how many
5101
04:18:11,600 --> 04:18:18,479
referrals each user generated.
5102
04:18:15,120 --> 04:18:21,359
Monthly cash burn rate of peak growth 10
5103
04:18:18,479 --> 04:18:24,960
to 12 million
5104
04:18:21,359 --> 04:18:28,640
just vanishing into user acquisition. By
5105
04:18:24,960 --> 04:18:31,920
late 2000, PayPal was spending60 to $70
5106
04:18:28,640 --> 04:18:34,239
million annually just to buy users with
5107
04:18:31,920 --> 04:18:36,319
cash incentives.
5108
04:18:34,239 --> 04:18:38,960
They were hemorrhaging money at a
5109
04:18:36,319 --> 04:18:41,520
terrifying rate. Investors were
5110
04:18:38,960 --> 04:18:44,239
panicking. Board members were demanding
5111
04:18:41,520 --> 04:18:46,720
answers.
5112
04:18:44,239 --> 04:18:50,319
How long can you sustain spending $10
5113
04:18:46,720 --> 04:18:53,600
million a month buying users?
5114
04:18:50,319 --> 04:18:56,319
But the had done the mathematics. He had
5115
04:18:53,600 --> 04:18:59,359
run the numbers obsessively.
5116
04:18:56,319 --> 04:19:03,120
Each acquired user was worth $100 to
5117
04:18:59,359 --> 04:19:06,000
$200 in lifetime transaction fee revenue
5118
04:19:03,120 --> 04:19:10,479
through the PayPal network. They were
5119
04:19:06,000 --> 04:19:13,680
buying $100 bills for $20 bills. It was
5120
04:19:10,479 --> 04:19:16,880
either genius or insanity depending on
5121
04:19:13,680 --> 04:19:19,359
whether the math actually worked. The
5122
04:19:16,880 --> 04:19:21,680
believed it would work. He bet
5123
04:19:19,359 --> 04:19:24,800
everything on it. that there was a
5124
04:19:21,680 --> 04:19:28,239
problem, a major problem. Another
5125
04:19:24,800 --> 04:19:31,840
company was doing the exact same thing.
5126
04:19:28,239 --> 04:19:35,279
X.com, a finance company founded by Elon
5127
04:19:31,840 --> 04:19:37,279
Musk with money from his Zip 2 exit and
5128
04:19:35,279 --> 04:19:41,600
a vision for online banking that was
5129
04:19:37,279 --> 04:19:45,199
nearly identical to PayPal's.
5130
04:19:41,600 --> 04:19:48,080
Two companies, same idea, same market,
5131
04:19:45,199 --> 04:19:51,199
both burning massive amounts of cash at
5132
04:19:48,080 --> 04:19:53,279
completely unsustainable rates.
5133
04:19:51,199 --> 04:19:57,359
Total funding raised between both
5134
04:19:53,279 --> 04:20:00,640
companies over $100 million.
5135
04:19:57,359 --> 04:20:02,159
Combined monthly cash burn rate over $20
5136
04:20:00,640 --> 04:20:04,479
million.
5137
04:20:02,159 --> 04:20:09,600
Time until both companies simultaneously
5138
04:20:04,479 --> 04:20:12,399
ran out of money, less than 6 months.
5139
04:20:09,600 --> 04:20:16,000
The merger was inevitable.
5140
04:20:12,399 --> 04:20:19,040
X.com and Confiniti merged into a single
5141
04:20:16,000 --> 04:20:21,359
entity. The combined company kept the
5142
04:20:19,040 --> 04:20:25,120
PayPal name because users had already
5143
04:20:21,359 --> 04:20:27,680
adopted it. The brand had momentum. Elon
5144
04:20:25,120 --> 04:20:33,080
Musk became chief executive officer of
5145
04:20:27,680 --> 04:20:33,080
the merged company for 5 months.
5146
04:20:34,399 --> 04:20:40,479
October 2000, while Elon Musk was on his
5147
04:20:38,000 --> 04:20:42,800
honeymoon, the board of directors, led
5148
04:20:40,479 --> 04:20:45,600
by Peter Theel and other Confinity
5149
04:20:42,800 --> 04:20:49,199
founders, held an emergency meeting and
5150
04:20:45,600 --> 04:20:51,920
voted Musk out as CEO.
5151
04:20:49,199 --> 04:20:55,040
The official reasons cited strategic
5152
04:20:51,920 --> 04:20:58,239
disagreements over technology platform.
5153
04:20:55,040 --> 04:21:00,640
Musk wanted to use Microsoft software.
5154
04:20:58,239 --> 04:21:04,479
The Confinity engineers believed in
5155
04:21:00,640 --> 04:21:08,239
Unixbased systems. The actual reason
5156
04:21:04,479 --> 04:21:12,080
Theel wanted control, full control. This
5157
04:21:08,239 --> 04:21:14,239
was his company now.
5158
04:21:12,080 --> 04:21:17,600
Peter Theel became chief executive
5159
04:21:14,239 --> 04:21:20,080
officer of PayPal. Elon Musk remained a
5160
04:21:17,600 --> 04:21:23,840
major shareholder, but his operational
5161
04:21:20,080 --> 04:21:26,720
control was finished.
5162
04:21:23,840 --> 04:21:29,120
The two men, both future billionaires,
5163
04:21:26,720 --> 04:21:33,359
both future power brokers, had their
5164
04:21:29,120 --> 04:21:36,080
first battle. feel one. At its core,
5165
04:21:33,359 --> 04:21:38,800
PayPal ran on a simple idea that turned
5166
04:21:36,080 --> 04:21:41,359
into a powerful engine.
5167
04:21:38,800 --> 04:21:45,439
Every time money moved, PayPal took a
5168
04:21:41,359 --> 04:21:47,920
small cut, 2.9% plus 30 cents per
5169
04:21:45,439 --> 04:21:50,560
transaction. If that money crossed
5170
04:21:47,920 --> 04:21:53,040
borders, the fee climbed to between 2
5171
04:21:50,560 --> 04:21:55,199
1/2 and 4%.
5172
04:21:53,040 --> 04:21:57,120
Then there was the float. The cash
5173
04:21:55,199 --> 04:21:59,680
sitting in PayPal's accounts between
5174
04:21:57,120 --> 04:22:02,960
payments, quietly earning interest for
5175
04:21:59,680 --> 04:22:05,199
the company. Tiny slices repeated
5176
04:22:02,960 --> 04:22:08,319
millions of times.
5177
04:22:05,199 --> 04:22:12,159
By 2001, the numbers told the story of a
5178
04:22:08,319 --> 04:22:15,040
system coming to life. Every single day,
5179
04:22:12,159 --> 04:22:18,080
5 to8 million flowed through PayPal's
5180
04:22:15,040 --> 04:22:23,040
network. Each month, that translated
5181
04:22:18,080 --> 04:22:26,000
into 10 to$15 million in revenue.
5182
04:22:23,040 --> 04:22:28,560
But growth at this speed came at a cost.
5183
04:22:26,000 --> 04:22:31,439
Running the system, fighting fraud,
5184
04:22:28,560 --> 04:22:36,560
scaling infrastructure, acquiring users
5185
04:22:31,439 --> 04:22:38,880
was burning 20 to30 million every month.
5186
04:22:36,560 --> 04:22:41,279
The machine worked, it just wasn't
5187
04:22:38,880 --> 04:22:43,279
profitable yet.
5188
04:22:41,279 --> 04:22:45,840
Late 2000,
5189
04:22:43,279 --> 04:22:49,520
PayPal's data scientists discovered
5190
04:22:45,840 --> 04:22:51,920
something crucial. 70% of all PayPal
5191
04:22:49,520 --> 04:22:53,600
transactions were happening on eBay
5192
04:22:51,920 --> 04:22:55,840
auctions.
5193
04:22:53,600 --> 04:22:58,399
People buying and selling random items
5194
04:22:55,840 --> 04:23:01,840
on the internet's largest marketplace
5195
04:22:58,399 --> 04:23:04,159
were using PayPal to move money. The
5196
04:23:01,840 --> 04:23:07,520
strategic insight became immediately
5197
04:23:04,159 --> 04:23:11,680
clear. Make PayPal the only payment
5198
04:23:07,520 --> 04:23:15,680
method that eBay users trust completely.
5199
04:23:11,680 --> 04:23:18,239
Own that market. Become indispensable.
5200
04:23:15,680 --> 04:23:20,640
The execution buyer protection
5201
04:23:18,239 --> 04:23:23,439
guarantees that eBay's own payment
5202
04:23:20,640 --> 04:23:26,080
system did not offer
5203
04:23:23,439 --> 04:23:29,960
instant payment transfers with no 7-day
5204
04:23:26,080 --> 04:23:29,960
check clearing period.
5205
04:23:30,399 --> 04:23:35,520
Fraud detection algorithms that were
5206
04:23:32,479 --> 04:23:38,399
better than credit card companies. Email
5207
04:23:35,520 --> 04:23:42,880
notifications for every transaction.
5208
04:23:38,399 --> 04:23:46,239
Simple, clean user interface.
5209
04:23:42,880 --> 04:23:50,000
By mid 2001, the strategy was working
5210
04:23:46,239 --> 04:23:52,720
beyond all projections. 50% of all eBay
5211
04:23:50,000 --> 04:23:56,319
auctions accepted PayPal as a payment
5212
04:23:52,720 --> 04:23:58,800
method. PayPal was processing $50
5213
04:23:56,319 --> 04:24:01,840
million daily in eBay related
5214
04:23:58,800 --> 04:24:07,040
transactions alone. And then eBay
5215
04:24:01,840 --> 04:24:09,040
noticed and eBay was not happy.
5216
04:24:07,040 --> 04:24:11,439
eBay launched their own competing
5217
04:24:09,040 --> 04:24:14,239
service called Billpoint and attempted
5218
04:24:11,439 --> 04:24:16,399
to kill PayPal through the marketplace.
5219
04:24:14,239 --> 04:24:19,439
They promoted Billoint in search
5220
04:24:16,399 --> 04:24:22,159
rankings. They penalized sellers who
5221
04:24:19,439 --> 04:24:25,279
only accepted PayPal. They made it
5222
04:24:22,159 --> 04:24:27,040
harder to display the PayPal logo. It
5223
04:24:25,279 --> 04:24:30,080
was war.
5224
04:24:27,040 --> 04:24:32,640
PayPal's response was total war.
5225
04:24:30,080 --> 04:24:35,279
Temporarily lower transaction fees to
5226
04:24:32,640 --> 04:24:37,439
undercut Bill point.
5227
04:24:35,279 --> 04:24:40,560
Guarantee faster money transfers than
5228
04:24:37,439 --> 04:24:44,239
eBay could offer. Invest heavily in
5229
04:24:40,560 --> 04:24:47,279
superior $30 million deployed in 2001
5230
04:24:44,239 --> 04:24:49,920
fraud protection. Massive marketing
5231
04:24:47,279 --> 04:24:53,680
spending alone.
5232
04:24:49,920 --> 04:24:57,920
By early 2002, the war was over. PayPal
5233
04:24:53,680 --> 04:25:02,000
controlled 65% of eBay's payment market.
5234
04:24:57,920 --> 04:25:04,319
Bill point at barely 10%.
5235
04:25:02,000 --> 04:25:06,640
eBay executives looked at the numbers
5236
04:25:04,319 --> 04:25:11,920
and reached the conclusion, if you
5237
04:25:06,640 --> 04:25:16,159
cannot beat them, buy them. July 2002,
5238
04:25:11,920 --> 04:25:18,239
eBay acquires PayPal for $1.5 billion in
5239
04:25:16,159 --> 04:25:21,920
eBay stock.
5240
04:25:18,239 --> 04:25:24,319
Peter Theal owned approximately $3.7% of
5241
04:25:21,920 --> 04:25:28,000
PayPal at the time of the acquisition.
5242
04:25:24,319 --> 04:25:31,439
His equity stake was worth $55 million
5243
04:25:28,000 --> 04:25:34,000
in eBay stock. After taxes, he walked
5244
04:25:31,439 --> 04:25:37,920
away with approximately $40 million in
5245
04:25:34,000 --> 04:25:41,520
liquid wealth. At age 34, he had won his
5246
04:25:37,920 --> 04:25:43,520
first billion dollar game.
5247
04:25:41,520 --> 04:25:46,800
But the money was not the most valuable
5248
04:25:43,520 --> 04:25:50,880
thing he extracted from PayPal. The real
5249
04:25:46,800 --> 04:25:53,199
value was the network, the PayPal mafia,
5250
04:25:50,880 --> 04:25:57,199
the name they gave themselves. And it
5251
04:25:53,199 --> 04:26:00,000
was not ironic. It was descriptive. The
5252
04:25:57,199 --> 04:26:02,159
core team that Theel assembled at PayPal
5253
04:26:00,000 --> 04:26:05,359
would go on to create some of the most
5254
04:26:02,159 --> 04:26:11,359
valuable companies in human history.
5255
04:26:05,359 --> 04:26:16,159
Elon Musk Tesla Market Cap $650 billion.
5256
04:26:11,359 --> 04:26:19,199
SpaceX estimated value $150 billion.
5257
04:26:16,159 --> 04:26:22,159
Reed Hoffman LinkedIn sold to Microsoft
5258
04:26:19,199 --> 04:26:26,319
for $26 billion.
5259
04:26:22,159 --> 04:26:31,040
Steve Chen, Chad Hurley, Jawed Kareem,
5260
04:26:26,319 --> 04:26:35,960
YouTube sold to Google for 1.65 billion,
5261
04:26:31,040 --> 04:26:35,960
now worth over 100 billion.
5262
04:26:36,239 --> 04:26:42,960
Jeremy Stoppleman and Russell Simmons,
5263
04:26:38,880 --> 04:26:46,000
Yelp, peaked at $3 billion market cap.
5264
04:26:42,960 --> 04:26:49,120
David Saxs, Yammer, sold to Microsoft
5265
04:26:46,000 --> 04:26:52,000
for $1.2 billion.
5266
04:26:49,120 --> 04:26:56,720
later founded Craft Ventures. Max
5267
04:26:52,000 --> 04:27:01,359
Levchin, a firm 12 billion company, also
5268
04:26:56,720 --> 04:27:04,239
co-founded Yelp. Keith Rabo, COO of
5269
04:27:01,359 --> 04:27:08,840
Square, partner at Founders Fund,
5270
04:27:04,239 --> 04:27:08,840
investor in dozens of unicorns.
5271
04:27:09,040 --> 04:27:15,040
Roloff Buffer, partner at Sequoia
5272
04:27:12,000 --> 04:27:20,319
Capital, led investments in Instagram,
5273
04:27:15,040 --> 04:27:23,279
YouTube, Tumblr, MongoDB, Eventbrite.
5274
04:27:20,319 --> 04:27:25,279
Total value created by the PayPal mafia
5275
04:27:23,279 --> 04:27:28,800
across all their companies,
5276
04:27:25,279 --> 04:27:31,199
conservatively estimated at over $200
5277
04:27:28,800 --> 04:27:33,520
billion in combined market
5278
04:27:31,199 --> 04:27:35,600
capitalization.
5279
04:27:33,520 --> 04:27:37,520
Field's ownership stakes across this
5280
04:27:35,600 --> 04:27:40,720
extended network through direct
5281
04:27:37,520 --> 04:27:43,920
investments and fund positions estimated
5282
04:27:40,720 --> 04:27:45,840
at two to4 billion.
5283
04:27:43,920 --> 04:27:49,040
This was not just a company that got
5284
04:27:45,840 --> 04:27:51,840
acquired. This was the creation of the
5285
04:27:49,040 --> 04:27:55,319
most powerful business cartel in Silicon
5286
04:27:51,840 --> 04:27:55,319
Valley history.
5287
04:27:55,520 --> 04:28:01,040
But what made PayPal different was not
5288
04:27:58,000 --> 04:28:03,359
the technology. Not really. The
5289
04:28:01,040 --> 04:28:05,040
technology was impressive but not
5290
04:28:03,359 --> 04:28:07,120
miraculous.
5291
04:28:05,040 --> 04:28:09,920
What made PayPal different was the
5292
04:28:07,120 --> 04:28:11,760
culture, the religion of extreme
5293
04:28:09,920 --> 04:28:14,800
meritocracy.
5294
04:28:11,760 --> 04:28:16,720
The hiring criteria were brutally
5295
04:28:14,800 --> 04:28:20,560
specific.
5296
04:28:16,720 --> 04:28:23,920
One raw intelligence, high test scores,
5297
04:28:20,560 --> 04:28:25,840
ability to solve complex puzzles, proof
5298
04:28:23,920 --> 04:28:30,239
you could think better than everyone
5299
04:28:25,840 --> 04:28:33,199
else. Two, intensity. Are you willing to
5300
04:28:30,239 --> 04:28:35,199
work 100hour weeks? Are you willing to
5301
04:28:33,199 --> 04:28:39,840
sacrifice everything else in your life
5302
04:28:35,199 --> 04:28:42,000
for the mission? Three, missionary zeal.
5303
04:28:39,840 --> 04:28:44,479
Do you actually believe we are changing
5304
04:28:42,000 --> 04:28:46,239
the world or are you here for a
5305
04:28:44,479 --> 04:28:49,600
paycheck?
5306
04:28:46,239 --> 04:28:51,760
Four, loyalty to the tribe. Will you
5307
04:28:49,600 --> 04:28:55,120
protect the other members? Will you put
5308
04:28:51,760 --> 04:28:58,479
the group above yourself?
5309
04:28:55,120 --> 04:29:04,000
Average employee age at PayPal 25 years
5310
04:28:58,479 --> 04:29:06,319
old. Average work week 80 to 100 hours.
5311
04:29:04,000 --> 04:29:08,880
Office culture libertarian,
5312
04:29:06,319 --> 04:29:10,640
anti-regulation, contrarian,
5313
04:29:08,880 --> 04:29:12,800
anti-establishment.
5314
04:29:10,640 --> 04:29:15,279
They called themselves the mafia
5315
04:29:12,800 --> 04:29:18,840
specifically because loyalty mattered
5316
04:29:15,279 --> 04:29:18,840
more than credentials,
5317
04:29:20,080 --> 04:29:25,520
more than degrees, more than previous
5318
04:29:22,239 --> 04:29:28,399
experience. Theel's operating principle
5319
04:29:25,520 --> 04:29:30,800
stated explicitly and repeatedly
5320
04:29:28,399 --> 04:29:33,040
talented people do not want to work with
5321
04:29:30,800 --> 04:29:36,560
people who are less talented than they
5322
04:29:33,040 --> 04:29:38,640
are. So every new hire must be more
5323
04:29:36,560 --> 04:29:41,920
talented than the average current
5324
04:29:38,640 --> 04:29:44,720
employee. Otherwise we are diluting the
5325
04:29:41,920 --> 04:29:48,080
talent pool. This created a
5326
04:29:44,720 --> 04:29:51,199
self-reinforcing escalation, an arms
5327
04:29:48,080 --> 04:29:54,399
race of hiring. Every new person raised
5328
04:29:51,199 --> 04:29:58,000
the bar. The standards became higher and
5329
04:29:54,399 --> 04:30:00,720
higher. Only the absolute best could get
5330
04:29:58,000 --> 04:30:03,760
in. And once you were in, you were
5331
04:30:00,720 --> 04:30:06,319
family. But here is what most people
5332
04:30:03,760 --> 04:30:08,399
forget about PayPal. Here is the
5333
04:30:06,319 --> 04:30:11,199
original vision that got erased from the
5334
04:30:08,399 --> 04:30:14,319
mythology. PayPal was supposed to
5335
04:30:11,199 --> 04:30:16,640
destroy the Federal Reserve. It was
5336
04:30:14,319 --> 04:30:20,000
supposed to undermine state control of
5337
04:30:16,640 --> 04:30:21,760
currency. That was the actual mission.
5338
04:30:20,000 --> 04:30:26,560
That was why Peter Theel, the
5339
04:30:21,760 --> 04:30:29,120
libertarian ideologue, cared so much.
5340
04:30:26,560 --> 04:30:32,000
The original vision laid out in Theo's
5341
04:30:29,120 --> 04:30:35,359
founding documents. Create a new digital
5342
04:30:32,000 --> 04:30:38,159
currency outside government control.
5343
04:30:35,359 --> 04:30:41,199
Enable true peer-to-peer transactions
5344
04:30:38,159 --> 04:30:43,439
globally without state intermediaries.
5345
04:30:41,199 --> 04:30:46,399
Undermine the state monopoly on money
5346
04:30:43,439 --> 04:30:48,960
creation and management.
5347
04:30:46,399 --> 04:30:51,199
build the financial infrastructure for a
5348
04:30:48,960 --> 04:30:53,680
stateless society.
5349
04:30:51,199 --> 04:30:56,640
What actually happened? To become
5350
04:30:53,680 --> 04:30:59,120
mainstream, to actually scale, PayPal
5351
04:30:56,640 --> 04:31:01,439
had to compromise every single founding
5352
04:30:59,120 --> 04:31:04,319
principle. They had to integrate with
5353
04:31:01,439 --> 04:31:07,359
the traditional banking system, the
5354
04:31:04,319 --> 04:31:09,600
enemy. They had to comply with know your
5355
04:31:07,359 --> 04:31:11,120
customer and anti-moneylaundering
5356
04:31:09,600 --> 04:31:13,279
regulations,
5357
04:31:11,120 --> 04:31:15,120
government control.
5358
04:31:13,279 --> 04:31:17,840
They had to partner with credit card
5359
04:31:15,120 --> 04:31:20,640
companies. The old system they wanted to
5360
04:31:17,840 --> 04:31:24,159
destroy. They had to get licensed in
5361
04:31:20,640 --> 04:31:26,000
every single state. Regulatory capture.
5362
04:31:24,159 --> 04:31:28,960
They had to report suspicious
5363
04:31:26,000 --> 04:31:32,399
transactions to federal authorities.
5364
04:31:28,960 --> 04:31:36,239
Surveillance. By 2002, PayPal was
5365
04:31:32,399 --> 04:31:38,960
regulated exactly like a bank. Partnered
5366
04:31:36,239 --> 04:31:41,840
with banks, dependent on banks for all
5367
04:31:38,960 --> 04:31:44,080
core functionalities. The libertarian
5368
04:31:41,840 --> 04:31:46,159
revolution had become just another
5369
04:31:44,080 --> 04:31:48,479
fintech company playing by the
5370
04:31:46,159 --> 04:31:50,720
government's rules.
5371
04:31:48,479 --> 04:31:52,880
The learned the most important lesson of
5372
04:31:50,720 --> 04:31:55,760
his career from PayPal's failure to
5373
04:31:52,880 --> 04:31:58,239
achieve its revolutionary mission. You
5374
04:31:55,760 --> 04:32:01,040
cannot disrupt the system from inside
5375
04:31:58,239 --> 04:32:03,439
the system. If you want to change the
5376
04:32:01,040 --> 04:32:06,319
rules, you cannot ask permission from
5377
04:32:03,439 --> 04:32:09,040
the people who wrote them. This lesson
5378
04:32:06,319 --> 04:32:13,159
would shape everything he did next.
5379
04:32:09,040 --> 04:32:13,159
Palanteer, Facebook,
5380
04:32:13,279 --> 04:32:17,359
his political investments,
5381
04:32:15,600 --> 04:32:19,600
everything.
5382
04:32:17,359 --> 04:32:22,720
The PayPal acquisition was not an
5383
04:32:19,600 --> 04:32:25,439
ending. It was a beginning, the start of
5384
04:32:22,720 --> 04:32:28,479
something much larger. The pattern that
5385
04:32:25,439 --> 04:32:30,800
emerged over the next 20 years. PayPal
5386
04:32:28,479 --> 04:32:33,040
veterans leave and start new companies
5387
04:32:30,800 --> 04:32:36,159
in different sectors.
5388
04:32:33,040 --> 04:32:39,120
Theel invests early as angel investor or
5389
04:32:36,159 --> 04:32:40,960
through founders fund. PayPal mafia
5390
04:32:39,120 --> 04:32:43,760
members join each other's boards of
5391
04:32:40,960 --> 04:32:46,720
directors. Cross investment between all
5392
04:32:43,760 --> 04:32:49,279
their venture funds creates alignment.
5393
04:32:46,720 --> 04:32:51,600
Preferential access to deal flow because
5394
04:32:49,279 --> 04:32:53,600
of network relationships.
5395
04:32:51,600 --> 04:32:56,399
Shared intelligence about markets,
5396
04:32:53,600 --> 04:32:58,319
technology, and opportunities.
5397
04:32:56,399 --> 04:33:01,840
Real examples of how the network
5398
04:32:58,319 --> 04:33:05,439
compounds. Reed Hoffman introduces Theel
5399
04:33:01,840 --> 04:33:09,439
to Mark Zuckerberg in 2004.
5400
04:33:05,439 --> 04:33:13,119
Theel invests $500,000 in Facebook,
5401
04:33:09,439 --> 04:33:16,320
eventually makes over $1 billion.
5402
04:33:13,119 --> 04:33:18,480
Roloff Botha joins Sequoia Capital and
5403
04:33:16,320 --> 04:33:20,959
invests in multiple Theelbacked
5404
04:33:18,480 --> 04:33:22,561
companies, creating reciprocal deal
5405
04:33:20,959 --> 04:33:25,119
flows.
5406
04:33:22,561 --> 04:33:28,080
David Saxs hosts high dollar fundraisers
5407
04:33:25,119 --> 04:33:32,359
for Theo's political candidates, mixing
5408
04:33:28,080 --> 04:33:32,359
business and politics seamlessly.
5409
04:33:32,480 --> 04:33:38,639
Max Levchim provides seed capital for
5410
04:33:35,119 --> 04:33:40,639
Palanteer and serves as advisor lending
5411
04:33:38,639 --> 04:33:42,879
credibility.
5412
04:33:40,639 --> 04:33:46,799
This network effect multiplier is
5413
04:33:42,879 --> 04:33:50,400
precisely how Theel turned $55 million
5414
04:33:46,799 --> 04:33:52,400
from PayPal into over $5 billion in net
5415
04:33:50,400 --> 04:33:55,760
worth today.
5416
04:33:52,400 --> 04:33:58,240
The PayPal mafia is not a cute nickname.
5417
04:33:55,760 --> 04:34:00,719
It is not a metaphor. It is the most
5418
04:33:58,240 --> 04:34:03,359
successful organized business cartel in
5419
04:34:00,719 --> 04:34:05,840
Silicon Valley history. A
5420
04:34:03,359 --> 04:34:08,160
self-reinforcing network of wealth,
5421
04:34:05,840 --> 04:34:10,480
power, and influence that has shaped the
5422
04:34:08,160 --> 04:34:13,680
entire technology industry for two
5423
04:34:10,480 --> 04:34:18,760
decades. And Peter Theel sits at the
5424
04:34:13,680 --> 04:34:18,760
center of it all. The Godfather.
5425
04:34:24,080 --> 04:34:29,279
After PayPal, Peter Theel was a man with
5426
04:34:27,039 --> 04:34:32,400
a billion dollars and a dangerous
5427
04:34:29,279 --> 04:34:34,240
secret. While other investors were
5428
04:34:32,400 --> 04:34:36,959
looking at spreadsheets and profit
5429
04:34:34,240 --> 04:34:39,279
margins, Theel was looking at the human
5430
04:34:36,959 --> 04:34:41,279
soul through the eyes of his mentor,
5431
04:34:39,279 --> 04:34:44,561
Renee Gerard.
5432
04:34:41,279 --> 04:34:48,000
Gerard taught him a terrifying truth.
5433
04:34:44,561 --> 04:34:51,119
Human beings don't know what they want.
5434
04:34:48,000 --> 04:34:53,840
We are mimemetic creatures. We don't
5435
04:34:51,119 --> 04:34:56,320
desire things for themselves. We desire
5436
04:34:53,840 --> 04:34:58,879
them because other people desire them.
5437
04:34:56,320 --> 04:35:01,840
We are copy machines disguised as
5438
04:34:58,879 --> 04:35:04,400
individuals.
5439
04:35:01,840 --> 04:35:07,199
August 2004.
5440
04:35:04,400 --> 04:35:10,480
Facebook has been online for exactly 6
5441
04:35:07,199 --> 04:35:12,959
months. It started as a Harvard dorm
5442
04:35:10,480 --> 04:35:15,920
project and has now expanded to several
5443
04:35:12,959 --> 04:35:19,199
college campuses.
5444
04:35:15,920 --> 04:35:23,039
The metrics that Zuckerberg shows Theel
5445
04:35:19,199 --> 04:35:26,400
total registered users 200,000
5446
04:35:23,039 --> 04:35:30,000
almost entirely college students
5447
04:35:26,400 --> 04:35:31,520
daily active user rate 70 to 80%
5448
04:35:30,000 --> 04:35:36,400
engagement
5449
04:35:31,520 --> 04:35:39,199
unprecedented in web services revenue $0
5450
04:35:36,400 --> 04:35:43,359
no business model yet valuation
5451
04:35:39,199 --> 04:35:45,199
Zuckerberg is asking for $5 million
5452
04:35:43,359 --> 04:35:47,760
every single professional venture
5453
04:35:45,199 --> 04:35:50,561
capitalist in Silicon Valley has passed
5454
04:35:47,760 --> 04:35:53,680
on Facebook. Every major firm has looked
5455
04:35:50,561 --> 04:35:57,039
into it and said no. The reasons they
5456
04:35:53,680 --> 04:36:00,639
gave it is just a college directory.
5457
04:35:57,039 --> 04:36:02,959
Limited market. Frenster has already 5
5458
04:36:00,639 --> 04:36:05,920
million users and is the leader in
5459
04:36:02,959 --> 04:36:09,039
social networking. MySpace is dominant
5460
04:36:05,920 --> 04:36:11,520
with 8 million users and growing fast.
5461
04:36:09,039 --> 04:36:14,959
There is no obvious business model or
5462
04:36:11,520 --> 04:36:18,240
revenue stream. Mark Zuckerberg is too
5463
04:36:14,959 --> 04:36:20,719
young, too inexperienced, too risky as a
5464
04:36:18,240 --> 04:36:23,039
founder.
5465
04:36:20,719 --> 04:36:25,600
Peter Theel saw something completely
5466
04:36:23,039 --> 04:36:27,760
different, something that had nothing to
5467
04:36:25,600 --> 04:36:30,160
do with technology.
5468
04:36:27,760 --> 04:36:33,199
Theel had spent years studying Renee
5469
04:36:30,160 --> 04:36:35,199
Gerard's mimemetic theory, the
5470
04:36:33,199 --> 04:36:38,480
philosophical framework that would shape
5471
04:36:35,199 --> 04:36:41,600
his entire investment approach. The core
5472
04:36:38,480 --> 04:36:44,719
idea, humans do not have original
5473
04:36:41,600 --> 04:36:47,840
desires. We desire what other people
5474
04:36:44,719 --> 04:36:51,199
desire. We learn what to want by
5475
04:36:47,840 --> 04:36:52,719
watching other people want. Desire is
5476
04:36:51,199 --> 04:36:57,600
imitative.
5477
04:36:52,719 --> 04:37:00,000
Desire is social. Desire is mimemetic.
5478
04:36:57,600 --> 04:37:02,400
When Theo looked at Facebook, he did not
5479
04:37:00,000 --> 04:37:04,959
see a technology platform for connecting
5480
04:37:02,400 --> 04:37:07,680
friends. He saw something far more
5481
04:37:04,959 --> 04:37:10,879
powerful. He saw the perfect mimemetic
5482
04:37:07,680 --> 04:37:13,680
desire machine. The insight that made
5483
04:37:10,879 --> 04:37:16,561
Theel invest. Social networks do not
5484
04:37:13,680 --> 04:37:19,039
create value by connecting people. That
5485
04:37:16,561 --> 04:37:21,920
is not where the money is. The money is
5486
04:37:19,039 --> 04:37:24,160
in comparison. The money is in making
5487
04:37:21,920 --> 04:37:25,920
people compare themselves to each other
5488
04:37:24,160 --> 04:37:28,639
constantly.
5489
04:37:25,920 --> 04:37:31,439
You see your friend's vacation photos,
5490
04:37:28,639 --> 04:37:33,680
you want a better vacation. You see
5491
04:37:31,439 --> 04:37:36,400
someone's job promotion announcement,
5492
04:37:33,680 --> 04:37:39,039
you want higher status. You see
5493
04:37:36,400 --> 04:37:41,680
someone's relationship photos, you want
5494
04:37:39,039 --> 04:37:43,439
romance.
5495
04:37:41,680 --> 04:37:46,799
You see someone getting likes and
5496
04:37:43,439 --> 04:37:49,680
comments, you want validation.
5497
04:37:46,799 --> 04:37:53,039
You see someone's perfect life, you feel
5498
04:37:49,680 --> 04:37:55,760
your own life is inadequate.
5499
04:37:53,039 --> 04:37:59,279
Facebook was not selling connections.
5500
04:37:55,760 --> 04:38:01,760
Facebook was selling envy. And envy,
5501
04:37:59,279 --> 04:38:04,240
Theel understood from Gerard, is the
5502
04:38:01,760 --> 04:38:07,279
most powerful economic force in human
5503
04:38:04,240 --> 04:38:10,959
history. The desire for what others
5504
04:38:07,279 --> 04:38:14,240
have. They need to keep up. The fear of
5505
04:38:10,959 --> 04:38:17,520
being left behind. Infinite envy creates
5506
04:38:14,240 --> 04:38:20,561
infinite demand. Infinite demand creates
5507
04:38:17,520 --> 04:38:22,959
infinite value.
5508
04:38:20,561 --> 04:38:26,959
September 2004,
5509
04:38:22,959 --> 04:38:28,879
Peter Theal wires $500,000 to Facebook
5510
04:38:26,959 --> 04:38:33,119
incororated.
5511
04:38:28,879 --> 04:38:36,000
The deal terms 10.2% equity ownership in
5512
04:38:33,119 --> 04:38:37,840
the company, a board seat giving him
5513
04:38:36,000 --> 04:38:39,439
governance rights and inside
5514
04:38:37,840 --> 04:38:42,320
information,
5515
04:38:39,439 --> 04:38:45,680
right of first refusal on all future
5516
04:38:42,320 --> 04:38:48,480
funding rounds, post money valuation of
5517
04:38:45,680 --> 04:38:50,561
exactly $5 million.
5518
04:38:48,480 --> 04:38:53,840
Mark Zuckerberg's reaction after the
5519
04:38:50,561 --> 04:38:56,799
deal closed. This guy actually gets it.
5520
04:38:53,840 --> 04:38:59,760
He understands what we are building.
5521
04:38:56,799 --> 04:39:01,760
Silicon Valley's reaction. Peter Theal
5522
04:38:59,760 --> 04:39:04,879
just threw away half a million dollars
5523
04:39:01,760 --> 04:39:07,439
on a college kid's website. This will be
5524
04:39:04,879 --> 04:39:09,760
his biggest failure.
5525
04:39:07,439 --> 04:39:12,000
What happened next rewrote the history
5526
04:39:09,760 --> 04:39:17,359
of venture capital.
5527
04:39:12,000 --> 04:39:20,799
2004 end of year. 200,000 users grew to
5528
04:39:17,359 --> 04:39:23,600
1 million users. Five times growth in
5529
04:39:20,799 --> 04:39:27,199
four months. 2005
5530
04:39:23,600 --> 04:39:32,639
1 million users becomes 5.5 million
5531
04:39:27,199 --> 04:39:37,600
users. 2006 5.5 million users becomes 12
5532
04:39:32,639 --> 04:39:42,400
million users. 2007 12 million users
5533
04:39:37,600 --> 04:39:45,280
exploded to 50 million users. 2008 50
5534
04:39:42,400 --> 04:39:47,040
million users doubles to 100 million
5535
04:39:45,280 --> 04:39:48,638
users.
5536
04:39:47,040 --> 04:39:52,240
2009
5537
04:39:48,638 --> 04:39:55,600
100 million users becomes 350 million
5538
04:39:52,240 --> 04:39:58,718
users. Growth rate the user base was
5539
04:39:55,600 --> 04:40:01,040
doubling every 6 to9 months for five
5540
04:39:58,718 --> 04:40:03,680
consecutive years.
5541
04:40:01,040 --> 04:40:06,400
This growth curve had never been seen
5542
04:40:03,680 --> 04:40:09,920
before in business history. Not even
5543
04:40:06,400 --> 04:40:12,400
close. As Facebook grew, its valuation
5544
04:40:09,920 --> 04:40:14,718
grew and Peter Theel's stake grew with
5545
04:40:12,400 --> 04:40:16,798
it.
5546
04:40:14,718 --> 04:40:20,638
May 2005,
5547
04:40:16,798 --> 04:40:23,520
Axel Partners invest $12.7 million at
5548
04:40:20,638 --> 04:40:27,280
$100 million valuation.
5549
04:40:23,520 --> 04:40:30,798
Field's 10.2% stake is now worth $10.2
5550
04:40:27,280 --> 04:40:33,440
million. He has achieved 20 times return
5551
04:40:30,798 --> 04:40:36,958
in 9 months.
5552
04:40:33,440 --> 04:40:41,280
April 2006, Greylock Partners and
5553
04:40:36,958 --> 04:40:44,878
Meritech Capital invest $27.5 million at
5554
04:40:41,280 --> 04:40:48,718
$500 million valuation. Theel stake is
5555
04:40:44,878 --> 04:40:51,440
now worth $51 million, 100 times return
5556
04:40:48,718 --> 04:40:53,920
on his original investment.
5557
04:40:51,440 --> 04:40:58,400
October 2007,
5558
04:40:53,920 --> 04:41:02,160
Microsoft invests $240 million, valuing
5559
04:40:58,400 --> 04:41:06,480
Facebook at $15 billion.
5560
04:41:02,160 --> 04:41:11,040
Theel stake is now worth $1.5 billion, a
5561
04:41:06,480 --> 04:41:14,080
300,000 times return in three years.
5562
04:41:11,040 --> 04:41:16,480
2009 through 2011,
5563
04:41:14,080 --> 04:41:19,600
multiple private sales and secondary
5564
04:41:16,480 --> 04:41:21,440
transactions value Facebook at $50
5565
04:41:19,600 --> 04:41:24,400
billion.
5566
04:41:21,440 --> 04:41:27,840
The stake, if he had held everything,
5567
04:41:24,400 --> 04:41:31,120
would be worth $5 billion.
5568
04:41:27,840 --> 04:41:33,520
May 18th, 2012,
5569
04:41:31,120 --> 04:41:38,480
Facebook goes public at a market
5570
04:41:33,520 --> 04:41:41,120
capitalization of $14 billion.
5571
04:41:38,480 --> 04:41:44,320
But Theel does not hold everything. He
5572
04:41:41,120 --> 04:41:47,600
is strategic. He is tactical. He takes
5573
04:41:44,320 --> 04:41:51,600
profits. At the initial public offering,
5574
04:41:47,600 --> 04:41:53,200
Theel sells $640 million worth of shares
5575
04:41:51,600 --> 04:41:55,600
immediately.
5576
04:41:53,200 --> 04:41:57,760
Over the following six months, he sells
5577
04:41:55,600 --> 04:42:00,160
the remainder of his stake in carefully
5578
04:41:57,760 --> 04:42:02,400
timed transactions.
5579
04:42:00,160 --> 04:42:07,040
Total cash realized from the Facebook
5580
04:42:02,400 --> 04:42:10,320
investment, approximately $1 billion.
5581
04:42:07,040 --> 04:42:12,400
Initial investment in August 2004,
5582
04:42:10,320 --> 04:42:16,480
$500,000.
5583
04:42:12,400 --> 04:42:18,240
Total cash realized by end of 2012, $1
5584
04:42:16,480 --> 04:42:22,958
billion.
5585
04:42:18,240 --> 04:42:24,878
Total return, 2,000 times in 8 years.
5586
04:42:22,958 --> 04:42:27,840
This is the single greatest venture
5587
04:42:24,878 --> 04:42:30,958
capital return in recorded history.
5588
04:42:27,840 --> 04:42:34,160
Nothing else comes close. But here is
5589
04:42:30,958 --> 04:42:36,958
the twist. The haunting decision that
5590
04:42:34,160 --> 04:42:40,638
Theel himself admits keeps him awake at
5591
04:42:36,958 --> 04:42:43,280
night. Selling was a mistake.
5592
04:42:40,638 --> 04:42:46,400
If Peter Theal had held his original
5593
04:42:43,280 --> 04:42:48,878
10.2% 2% stake and had never sold a
5594
04:42:46,400 --> 04:42:52,878
single share, that stake at Facebook's
5595
04:42:48,878 --> 04:42:56,798
peak market capitalization in 2021 would
5596
04:42:52,878 --> 04:42:59,920
have been worth $12 billion.
5597
04:42:56,798 --> 04:43:02,958
$12 billion.
5598
04:42:59,920 --> 04:43:05,120
He left $100 billion on the table by
5599
04:43:02,958 --> 04:43:07,440
selling early.
5600
04:43:05,120 --> 04:43:09,760
The himself admitted this publicly,
5601
04:43:07,440 --> 04:43:12,560
saying, "The mistake was not investing
5602
04:43:09,760 --> 04:43:14,160
in Facebook. The mistake was selling
5603
04:43:12,560 --> 04:43:16,878
Facebook.
5604
04:43:14,160 --> 04:43:19,440
I should have held longer. I should have
5605
04:43:16,878 --> 04:43:23,840
believed more. It is the single most
5606
04:43:19,440 --> 04:43:26,240
expensive decision of his life.
5607
04:43:23,840 --> 04:43:28,480
Years later, in a Stanford lecture,
5608
04:43:26,240 --> 04:43:32,638
Theel explained his actual investment
5609
04:43:28,480 --> 04:43:34,798
thesis, the real reason he invested. I
5610
04:43:32,638 --> 04:43:36,718
did not invest in Facebook because I
5611
04:43:34,798 --> 04:43:39,360
thought social networks were going to be
5612
04:43:36,718 --> 04:43:41,840
big. I invested because I understood
5613
04:43:39,360 --> 04:43:44,560
that humans will always want to be more
5614
04:43:41,840 --> 04:43:47,760
like their peers. That desire is
5615
04:43:44,560 --> 04:43:49,600
infinite. It never stops. It only
5616
04:43:47,760 --> 04:43:52,080
intensifies.
5617
04:43:49,600 --> 04:43:55,760
An infinite desire creates infinite
5618
04:43:52,080 --> 04:43:57,280
value. The mimemetic theory made him a
5619
04:43:55,760 --> 04:43:59,520
billionaire.
5620
04:43:57,280 --> 04:44:03,040
The mimemetic theory also made him
5621
04:43:59,520 --> 04:44:06,400
terrified of what he had helped create.
5622
04:44:03,040 --> 04:44:08,958
A machine that weaponizes human envy, a
5623
04:44:06,400 --> 04:44:10,798
system that profits from making people
5624
04:44:08,958 --> 04:44:13,520
feel inadequate.
5625
04:44:10,798 --> 04:44:17,120
An algorithm that amplifies the worst
5626
04:44:13,520 --> 04:44:19,360
aspects of human nature. Peter Theal
5627
04:44:17,120 --> 04:44:22,958
helped build the most powerful behavior
5628
04:44:19,360 --> 04:44:25,600
modification system in human history.
5629
04:44:22,958 --> 04:44:28,160
And then he cashed out for a billion
5630
04:44:25,600 --> 04:44:28,160
dollars.
5631
04:44:34,958 --> 04:44:42,718
2003 Peter Theel has a problem. It is
5632
04:44:39,520 --> 04:44:45,920
the CIA's problem, but they think the
5633
04:44:42,718 --> 04:44:48,718
can solve it. His PayPal anti-fraud
5634
04:44:45,920 --> 04:44:50,958
algorithms have become so sophisticated
5635
04:44:48,718 --> 04:44:53,360
at detecting patterns in financial
5636
04:44:50,958 --> 04:44:55,520
transactions at finding terrorists
5637
04:44:53,360 --> 04:44:59,360
trying to move money through banking
5638
04:44:55,520 --> 04:45:02,718
systems that the CIA venture capital arm
5639
04:44:59,360 --> 04:45:05,680
inel requested a meeting.
5640
04:45:02,718 --> 04:45:08,320
The pitch from the CIA, can you build
5641
04:45:05,680 --> 04:45:10,798
what you built for PayPal but for
5642
04:45:08,320 --> 04:45:14,480
national security? Can you find
5643
04:45:10,798 --> 04:45:16,480
terrorists the way you found fraudsters?
5644
04:45:14,480 --> 04:45:18,878
May 2003,
5645
04:45:16,480 --> 04:45:21,280
Peter Theal co-founds Palunteer
5646
04:45:18,878 --> 04:45:22,878
Technologies with an unusual group of
5647
04:45:21,280 --> 04:45:25,840
co-founders.
5648
04:45:22,878 --> 04:45:29,280
The founding team, Alex Karp, chief
5649
04:45:25,840 --> 04:45:31,680
executive officer, Stanford Law Degree,
5650
04:45:29,280 --> 04:45:34,320
philosophy, PhD from Frankfurt
5651
04:45:31,680 --> 04:45:36,878
University in Germany, former human
5652
04:45:34,320 --> 04:45:38,480
rights lawyer who once worked on refugee
5653
04:45:36,878 --> 04:45:41,040
cases.
5654
04:45:38,480 --> 04:45:43,040
an extremely odd choice to run a company
5655
04:45:41,040 --> 04:45:45,200
that will become the most powerful
5656
04:45:43,040 --> 04:45:46,718
surveillance technology provider on
5657
04:45:45,200 --> 04:45:49,280
Earth.
5658
04:45:46,718 --> 04:45:52,400
Nathan Gettings, chief technology
5659
04:45:49,280 --> 04:45:55,360
officer, PayPal's lead security
5660
04:45:52,400 --> 04:45:58,320
engineer, brilliant programmer, Joe
5661
04:45:55,360 --> 04:46:01,280
Londale, a Stamford undergraduate
5662
04:45:58,320 --> 04:46:04,878
student, barely 20 years old, one of the
5663
04:46:01,280 --> 04:46:08,000
first Theel fellows. Steven Cohen,
5664
04:46:04,878 --> 04:46:09,840
PayPal's chief security architect, the
5665
04:46:08,000 --> 04:46:12,798
person who actually built the fraud
5666
04:46:09,840 --> 04:46:14,560
detection algorithms. Initial funding,
5667
04:46:12,798 --> 04:46:16,718
$2 million,
5668
04:46:14,560 --> 04:46:20,240
entirely from Peter Theo's personal
5669
04:46:16,718 --> 04:46:22,480
capital. No outside investors yet. This
5670
04:46:20,240 --> 04:46:25,120
is his project.
5671
04:46:22,480 --> 04:46:27,680
The mission statement, build software
5672
04:46:25,120 --> 04:46:30,240
that can find patterns in massive data
5673
04:46:27,680 --> 04:46:32,160
sets from disperate, incompatible
5674
04:46:30,240 --> 04:46:35,280
sources.
5675
04:46:32,160 --> 04:46:37,600
The kind of data that if intelligency
5676
04:46:35,280 --> 04:46:40,560
agencies had been able to analyze it
5677
04:46:37,600 --> 04:46:43,520
properly could have prevented September
5678
04:46:40,560 --> 04:46:47,120
11th, 2001.
5679
04:46:43,520 --> 04:46:49,520
The company name Palanteer named after
5680
04:46:47,120 --> 04:46:51,520
the seeing stones in Lord of the Rings,
5681
04:46:49,520 --> 04:46:53,600
the magical orbs that allow their
5682
04:46:51,520 --> 04:46:56,638
possessors to see anything happening
5683
04:46:53,600 --> 04:47:00,080
anywhere in Middle Earth. Even the name
5684
04:46:56,638 --> 04:47:01,600
revealed the ambition total information
5685
04:47:00,080 --> 04:47:06,360
awareness.
5686
04:47:01,600 --> 04:47:06,360
the ability to see everything.
5687
04:47:06,638 --> 04:47:11,680
2005,
5688
04:47:08,160 --> 04:47:14,560
the CIA's venture capital arm in QEL
5689
04:47:11,680 --> 04:47:17,520
invest $2 million in Palanteer's series
5690
04:47:14,560 --> 04:47:20,240
A funding round. This was not just
5691
04:47:17,520 --> 04:47:22,958
money. This was validation from the
5692
04:47:20,240 --> 04:47:25,440
intelligence community, a stamp of
5693
04:47:22,958 --> 04:47:27,840
approval from the most secretive, most
5694
04:47:25,440 --> 04:47:29,520
paranoid organization in the US
5695
04:47:27,840 --> 04:47:33,360
government.
5696
04:47:29,520 --> 04:47:35,440
Initial contract value undisclosed.
5697
04:47:33,360 --> 04:47:38,798
Government intelligence contracts are
5698
04:47:35,440 --> 04:47:41,520
classified by law, but industry analysts
5699
04:47:38,798 --> 04:47:44,958
estimate the first CIA contracts were
5700
04:47:41,520 --> 04:47:48,160
worth 5 to 10 million annually.
5701
04:47:44,958 --> 04:47:51,360
The product was called Palunteer Gotham.
5702
04:47:48,160 --> 04:47:54,480
The name itself was significant. Gotham,
5703
04:47:51,360 --> 04:47:56,718
the dark city that needs Batman. The
5704
04:47:54,480 --> 04:48:00,320
city that needs surveillance to fight
5705
04:47:56,718 --> 04:48:02,320
crime. core technical capabilities.
5706
04:48:00,320 --> 04:48:05,040
Integrate data from dozens of
5707
04:48:02,320 --> 04:48:07,040
incompatible government databases that
5708
04:48:05,040 --> 04:48:09,680
were never designed to communicate with
5709
04:48:07,040 --> 04:48:12,400
each other. From hidden connections
5710
04:48:09,680 --> 04:48:16,320
between people, places, financial
5711
04:48:12,400 --> 04:48:18,958
transactions, communications metadata,
5712
04:48:16,320 --> 04:48:21,200
visualize networks of relationships in
5713
04:48:18,958 --> 04:48:23,200
ways human analysts could understand
5714
04:48:21,200 --> 04:48:25,440
intuitively.
5715
04:48:23,200 --> 04:48:27,680
Predicts future behavior and likely
5716
04:48:25,440 --> 04:48:30,638
attack patterns based on historical
5717
04:48:27,680 --> 04:48:33,520
data. Specific use cases for
5718
04:48:30,638 --> 04:48:36,480
intelligence agencies. Track terrorist
5719
04:48:33,520 --> 04:48:38,560
cells across multiple countries. Map
5720
04:48:36,480 --> 04:48:40,718
drug trafficking routes from production
5721
04:48:38,560 --> 04:48:42,878
to distribution.
5722
04:48:40,718 --> 04:48:45,840
Identify money laundering networks
5723
04:48:42,878 --> 04:48:48,320
moving funds for organized crime.
5724
04:48:45,840 --> 04:48:50,560
Predict insurgent attacks in Iraq and
5725
04:48:48,320 --> 04:48:54,160
Afghanistan based on pattern
5726
04:48:50,560 --> 04:48:57,920
recognition. It worked. The software
5727
04:48:54,160 --> 04:49:00,958
actually worked. By 2006, Palanteer
5728
04:48:57,920 --> 04:49:03,920
software was being actively used in Iraq
5729
04:49:00,958 --> 04:49:07,520
for counterinsurgency operations and in
5730
04:49:03,920 --> 04:49:09,760
IED attack prediction.
5731
04:49:07,520 --> 04:49:12,798
Afghanistan for predicting Taliban
5732
04:49:09,760 --> 04:49:16,400
leadership networks. Langley, Virginia
5733
04:49:12,798 --> 04:49:19,200
at CIA headquarters for threat analysis.
5734
04:49:16,400 --> 04:49:23,360
FBI field officers nationwide for
5735
04:49:19,200 --> 04:49:25,520
domestic terrorism investigation.
5736
04:49:23,360 --> 04:49:29,520
Early revenue growth told the story of
5737
04:49:25,520 --> 04:49:32,400
Palunteers expanding reach. 2005
5738
04:49:29,520 --> 04:49:38,718
$3 million in revenue. Government
5739
04:49:32,400 --> 04:49:44,160
contracts only. 2006 $10 million. 2007
5740
04:49:38,718 --> 04:49:48,798
$25 million. 2008 $50 million. First
5741
04:49:44,160 --> 04:49:55,280
commercial clients added 2010 $150
5742
04:49:48,798 --> 04:49:57,040
million. 2012 $400 million. By 2012,
5743
04:49:55,280 --> 04:49:59,200
Palanteer had achieved something
5744
04:49:57,040 --> 04:50:02,878
extremely rare for a high- growth
5745
04:49:59,200 --> 04:50:05,120
technology company. Profitability.
5746
04:50:02,878 --> 04:50:08,080
They were actually making money, not
5747
04:50:05,120 --> 04:50:11,200
just burning venture capital. Customer
5748
04:50:08,080 --> 04:50:15,040
revenue breakdown in 2012.
5749
04:50:11,200 --> 04:50:17,680
Government contracts, 60% of revenue,
5750
04:50:15,040 --> 04:50:22,080
$240 million.
5751
04:50:17,680 --> 04:50:24,878
Commercial clients, 40% of revenue, $160
5752
04:50:22,080 --> 04:50:28,878
million.
5753
04:50:24,878 --> 04:50:31,200
May the 1st, 2011. Palanteer Software
5754
04:50:28,878 --> 04:50:34,400
plays a role in the operation that kills
5755
04:50:31,200 --> 04:50:36,718
Osama bin Laden. A role that remains
5756
04:50:34,400 --> 04:50:39,920
partially classified, but has been
5757
04:50:36,718 --> 04:50:42,718
confirmed by multiple sources.
5758
04:50:39,920 --> 04:50:45,040
How Palanteer contributed. Palanteer
5759
04:50:42,718 --> 04:50:47,360
Gotham integrated dozens of different
5760
04:50:45,040 --> 04:50:49,840
intelligence sources.
5761
04:50:47,360 --> 04:50:53,040
CIA human intelligence on career
5762
04:50:49,840 --> 04:50:55,600
networks. NSA signal intelligence
5763
04:50:53,040 --> 04:50:58,400
including phone metadata and email
5764
04:50:55,600 --> 04:51:01,600
communications patterns.
5765
04:50:58,400 --> 04:51:04,480
National Geospatial Intelligence Agency
5766
04:51:01,600 --> 04:51:06,000
satellite imagery of potential compound
5767
04:51:04,480 --> 04:51:08,400
locations.
5768
04:51:06,000 --> 04:51:10,400
historical pattern analysis of previous
5769
04:51:08,400 --> 04:51:13,280
high-v valueue target operations in
5770
04:51:10,400 --> 04:51:15,360
Pakistan.
5771
04:51:13,280 --> 04:51:17,600
The system identified patterns and
5772
04:51:15,360 --> 04:51:20,160
connections that human analysts working
5773
04:51:17,600 --> 04:51:23,360
with separate databases that did not
5774
04:51:20,160 --> 04:51:25,600
communicate had missed. It narrowed the
5775
04:51:23,360 --> 04:51:30,080
search area and helped confirm the
5776
04:51:25,600 --> 04:51:32,160
identity of the Abotabad compound.
5777
04:51:30,080 --> 04:51:34,560
When asked about Palanteer's role in the
5778
04:51:32,160 --> 04:51:37,680
bin Laden operation, Theel gave
5779
04:51:34,560 --> 04:51:40,000
carefully worded response. I cannot
5780
04:51:37,680 --> 04:51:42,560
comment on specific operations or
5781
04:51:40,000 --> 04:51:46,718
specific clients due to classification
5782
04:51:42,560 --> 04:51:49,120
requirements, but I will say this. Tools
5783
04:51:46,718 --> 04:51:51,200
that help protect American lives and
5784
04:51:49,120 --> 04:51:56,638
help intelligence professionals do their
5785
04:51:51,200 --> 04:51:58,878
jobs better. That is our mission.
5786
04:51:56,638 --> 04:52:01,760
This single operation, this single
5787
04:51:58,878 --> 04:52:03,840
success legitimized Palanteer's entire
5788
04:52:01,760 --> 04:52:06,240
value proposition to the national
5789
04:52:03,840 --> 04:52:09,040
security establishment.
5790
04:52:06,240 --> 04:52:11,600
After bin Laden, the contracts poured
5791
04:52:09,040 --> 04:52:14,320
in.
5792
04:52:11,600 --> 04:52:17,200
After the bin Laden success, Palanteer's
5793
04:52:14,320 --> 04:52:21,840
government business exploded. Revenue
5794
04:52:17,200 --> 04:52:27,120
growth from 2012 to 2015.
5795
04:52:21,840 --> 04:52:30,560
2012, $400 million in revenue. 2013,
5796
04:52:27,120 --> 04:52:35,920
$600 million. 2014,
5797
04:52:30,560 --> 04:52:39,040
$900 million. 2015, $1.5 billion in
5798
04:52:35,920 --> 04:52:42,040
revenue. Major new contracts announced
5799
04:52:39,040 --> 04:52:42,040
publicly.
5800
04:52:43,440 --> 04:52:50,798
US Department of Defense, $222 million
5801
04:52:48,000 --> 04:52:52,638
for a 3-year data integration platform
5802
04:52:50,798 --> 04:52:56,560
contract.
5803
04:52:52,638 --> 04:52:59,680
US Army, $800 million for comprehensive
5804
04:52:56,560 --> 04:53:01,840
data platform modernization across all
5805
04:52:59,680 --> 04:53:06,080
Army systems.
5806
04:53:01,840 --> 04:53:08,718
US Special Operations Command, $444
5807
04:53:06,080 --> 04:53:10,400
million for targeting and intelligence
5808
04:53:08,718 --> 04:53:14,000
fusion,
5809
04:53:10,400 --> 04:53:16,320
Department of Homeland Security, $240
5810
04:53:14,000 --> 04:53:19,360
million for border security and
5811
04:53:16,320 --> 04:53:21,840
immigration enforcement systems.
5812
04:53:19,360 --> 04:53:24,400
Palanteer had become the single most
5813
04:53:21,840 --> 04:53:26,320
important software company in the entire
5814
04:53:24,400 --> 04:53:27,920
US defense and intelligence
5815
04:53:26,320 --> 04:53:30,160
establishment.
5816
04:53:27,920 --> 04:53:33,360
More important than traditional defense
5817
04:53:30,160 --> 04:53:35,360
contractors more embedded in classified
5818
04:53:33,360 --> 04:53:38,000
operations.
5819
04:53:35,360 --> 04:53:40,000
Simultaneously, Palunteer launched a
5820
04:53:38,000 --> 04:53:43,280
commercial product called Palunteer
5821
04:53:40,000 --> 04:53:46,400
Foundry for private sector clients. The
5822
04:53:43,280 --> 04:53:48,638
sales pitch to corporate America. Your
5823
04:53:46,400 --> 04:53:52,320
company has exactly the same problem as
5824
04:53:48,638 --> 04:53:54,958
the CIA. Too much data, too many
5825
04:53:52,320 --> 04:53:57,360
incompatible systems, not enough
5826
04:53:54,958 --> 04:54:00,000
insight. We can help you find the
5827
04:53:57,360 --> 04:54:02,160
patterns you are missing. Major
5828
04:54:00,000 --> 04:54:05,600
commercial clients and estimated
5829
04:54:02,160 --> 04:54:10,080
contract values.
5830
04:54:05,600 --> 04:54:12,320
JP Morgan Chase, over $100 million,
5831
04:54:10,080 --> 04:54:15,600
fraud detection and financial crime
5832
04:54:12,320 --> 04:54:18,560
prevention. Morgan Stanley over $50
5833
04:54:15,600 --> 04:54:23,280
million risk management and regulatory
5834
04:54:18,560 --> 04:54:25,440
compliance. Airbus over $75 million
5835
04:54:23,280 --> 04:54:28,240
supply chain optimization and
5836
04:54:25,440 --> 04:54:32,400
manufacturing analytics.
5837
04:54:28,240 --> 04:54:34,958
Merc Pharmaceuticals over $60 million
5838
04:54:32,400 --> 04:54:37,920
drug discovery analytics and clinical
5839
04:54:34,958 --> 04:54:42,480
trial data integration.
5840
04:54:37,920 --> 04:54:46,320
BP over $80 million oil field production
5841
04:54:42,480 --> 04:54:49,600
optimization and predictive maintenance
5842
04:54:46,320 --> 04:54:51,360
commercial revenue growth from 2015 to
5843
04:54:49,600 --> 04:54:54,718
2020.
5844
04:54:51,360 --> 04:54:58,400
In 2015, they got $600 million
5845
04:54:54,718 --> 04:55:02,878
commercial revenue. By 2016, the number
5846
04:54:58,400 --> 04:55:05,520
was around $800 billion. In 2017, they
5847
04:55:02,878 --> 04:55:08,958
reached $1.1 billion in commercial
5848
04:55:05,520 --> 04:55:12,878
revenue, and it became their peak year.
5849
04:55:08,958 --> 04:55:15,120
2018 made them hit the $750 million
5850
04:55:12,878 --> 04:55:18,680
mark, a temporary decline due to
5851
04:55:15,120 --> 04:55:18,680
customer churn.
5852
04:55:18,718 --> 04:55:24,480
In 2019, revenue was around $745
5853
04:55:22,878 --> 04:55:28,400
million,
5854
04:55:24,480 --> 04:55:32,320
and by 2020, they reached $1.1 billion.
5855
04:55:28,400 --> 04:55:35,360
Again, this recovery was driven by COVID
5856
04:55:32,320 --> 04:55:37,600
analytics contracts. Palanteer had
5857
04:55:35,360 --> 04:55:41,280
created a business model with two
5858
04:55:37,600 --> 04:55:43,520
enormous lockedin customer bases, the US
5859
04:55:41,280 --> 04:55:47,000
government and the largest corporations
5860
04:55:43,520 --> 04:55:47,000
in the world.
5861
04:55:48,638 --> 04:55:53,760
But Palanteer's work, especially for
5862
04:55:50,958 --> 04:55:57,120
government agencies, attracted intense
5863
04:55:53,760 --> 04:56:00,160
controversy and moral criticism.
5864
04:55:57,120 --> 04:56:04,240
In 2019, they secured a contract with
5865
04:56:00,160 --> 04:56:06,718
ICE for $49 million. The purpose of the
5866
04:56:04,240 --> 04:56:09,200
contract was enforcement and removal
5867
04:56:06,718 --> 04:56:12,080
operations systems,
5868
04:56:09,200 --> 04:56:14,560
meaning a software used to identify,
5869
04:56:12,080 --> 04:56:17,280
track, and process undocumented
5870
04:56:14,560 --> 04:56:19,440
immigrants for deportation.
5871
04:56:17,280 --> 04:56:22,240
This project came with a controversy
5872
04:56:19,440 --> 04:56:24,240
attached. The software was used during
5873
04:56:22,240 --> 04:56:27,120
the family separation policy at the
5874
04:56:24,240 --> 04:56:30,480
southern border. Children separated from
5875
04:56:27,120 --> 04:56:32,560
their parents. Families torn apart.
5876
04:56:30,480 --> 04:56:35,360
Palunteer software helped make it
5877
04:56:32,560 --> 04:56:37,920
operationally possible. Hundreds of
5878
04:56:35,360 --> 04:56:40,000
Palunteer employees signed an internal
5879
04:56:37,920 --> 04:56:43,440
letter demanding the company cancelled
5880
04:56:40,000 --> 04:56:45,760
the ICE contract.
5881
04:56:43,440 --> 04:56:48,798
They argued the company was enabling
5882
04:56:45,760 --> 04:56:52,560
human rights abuses. The and Karp's
5883
04:56:48,798 --> 04:56:54,560
response, absolute refusal. The contract
5884
04:56:52,560 --> 04:56:57,120
would continue.
5885
04:56:54,560 --> 04:56:59,440
Alex K gave a public statement saying
5886
04:56:57,120 --> 04:57:02,958
that they had chosen sides and that the
5887
04:56:59,440 --> 04:57:05,440
company supported American institutions.
5888
04:57:02,958 --> 04:57:07,760
But this was not the only controversy
5889
04:57:05,440 --> 04:57:11,120
Palanteer has faced.
5890
04:57:07,760 --> 04:57:14,320
Palanteer worked alongside the NYPD with
5891
04:57:11,120 --> 04:57:19,280
a contract estimated between 50 and $100
5892
04:57:14,320 --> 04:57:21,600
billion. The mission, predictive policy.
5893
04:57:19,280 --> 04:57:24,160
They were asked to use historical crime
5894
04:57:21,600 --> 04:57:27,040
data to predict where future crimes will
5895
04:57:24,160 --> 04:57:29,840
occur and who is likely to commit them.
5896
04:57:27,040 --> 04:57:32,638
The controversy, civil rights groups
5897
04:57:29,840 --> 04:57:35,520
argued that system perpetuated racial
5898
04:57:32,638 --> 04:57:38,480
bias. Minority neighborhoods were
5899
04:57:35,520 --> 04:57:40,718
flagged as high risk. Innocent people
5900
04:57:38,480 --> 04:57:44,000
were put under surveillance based on
5901
04:57:40,718 --> 04:57:47,600
algorithmic predictions.
5902
04:57:44,000 --> 04:57:50,080
Joe Lndale, Palanteer co-founder, had
5903
04:57:47,600 --> 04:57:51,680
made a personal investment in Cambridge
5904
04:57:50,080 --> 04:57:54,000
Analytica.
5905
04:57:51,680 --> 04:57:56,480
Multiple Palanteer employees on their
5906
04:57:54,000 --> 04:58:00,920
own time helped Cambridge Analytica
5907
04:57:56,480 --> 04:58:00,920
build data integration models.
5908
04:58:01,120 --> 04:58:06,160
Both companies use similar approaches to
5909
04:58:03,760 --> 04:58:07,680
data harvesting and psychological
5910
04:58:06,160 --> 04:58:09,520
profiling.
5911
04:58:07,680 --> 04:58:12,400
When the connection was exposed by
5912
04:58:09,520 --> 04:58:15,440
journalists, Palanteer claimed there was
5913
04:58:12,400 --> 04:58:18,718
no institutional relationship, just
5914
04:58:15,440 --> 04:58:21,040
coincidental personal connections.
5915
04:58:18,718 --> 04:58:25,120
But the damage to Palanteer's reputation
5916
04:58:21,040 --> 04:58:27,520
was done. The had built the panopticon,
5917
04:58:25,120 --> 04:58:29,920
the allseeing eye of corporate and
5918
04:58:27,520 --> 04:58:33,360
government surveillance.
5919
04:58:29,920 --> 04:58:36,480
September the 30th, 2020.
5920
04:58:33,360 --> 04:58:38,400
After 17 years as a private company, one
5921
04:58:36,480 --> 04:58:41,200
of the longest periods of private
5922
04:58:38,400 --> 04:58:44,080
operation for any major tech company,
5923
04:58:41,200 --> 04:58:47,200
Palanteer finally goes public through a
5924
04:58:44,080 --> 04:58:50,080
direct listing.
5925
04:58:47,200 --> 04:58:52,958
They went public at $10 per share and
5926
04:58:50,080 --> 04:58:56,638
their market capitalization at market
5927
04:58:52,958 --> 04:59:00,000
open was $16 billion.
5928
04:58:56,638 --> 04:59:01,840
By the first day, shares were down 5%.
5929
04:59:00,000 --> 04:59:03,360
The stock was initially a
5930
04:59:01,840 --> 04:59:05,520
disappointment.
5931
04:59:03,360 --> 04:59:07,520
Investors were skeptical of the business
5932
04:59:05,520 --> 04:59:10,160
model, worried about customer
5933
04:59:07,520 --> 04:59:12,240
concentration, concerned about the
5934
04:59:10,160 --> 04:59:15,280
controversy.
5935
04:59:12,240 --> 04:59:18,400
But then COVID 19 created massive new
5936
04:59:15,280 --> 04:59:22,320
demand for Palanteer's capabilities.
5937
04:59:18,400 --> 04:59:24,718
2020 to 2021, Palanteer wins enormous
5938
04:59:22,320 --> 04:59:27,840
pandemic related government contracts
5939
04:59:24,718 --> 04:59:30,000
with governments across the world. The
5940
04:59:27,840 --> 04:59:33,280
pandemic proved that governments needed
5941
04:59:30,000 --> 04:59:36,320
Palanteer and the market responded.
5942
04:59:33,280 --> 04:59:42,160
By late 2021, Palanteer stock had
5943
04:59:36,320 --> 04:59:44,638
exploded, $29 per share at 190% gain
5944
04:59:42,160 --> 04:59:46,320
from the direct listing price. Market
5945
04:59:44,638 --> 04:59:49,878
capitalization
5946
04:59:46,320 --> 04:59:49,878
$60 billion.
5947
04:59:51,120 --> 04:59:58,000
Peter Theal stake approximately 7%
5948
04:59:54,718 --> 05:00:02,638
ownership worth $4.2 billion at the
5949
04:59:58,000 --> 05:00:06,320
peak. 2022 the tech crash hits Palanteer
5950
05:00:02,638 --> 05:00:10,480
brutally hard. Stock prices crash to $6
5951
05:00:06,320 --> 05:00:14,480
per share, down 8% from the peak. Market
5952
05:00:10,480 --> 05:00:16,560
cap collapses to $13 billion.
5953
05:00:14,480 --> 05:00:22,400
The paper wealth from Palanteer
5954
05:00:16,560 --> 05:00:25,760
evaporates. Billions gone. 2023 to 2024,
5955
05:00:22,400 --> 05:00:28,080
the AI boom creates new opportunity.
5956
05:00:25,760 --> 05:00:29,600
Palanteer markets itself as the AI
5957
05:00:28,080 --> 05:00:31,120
platform for governments and
5958
05:00:29,600 --> 05:00:34,000
enterprises.
5959
05:00:31,120 --> 05:00:38,718
And they get major new contract wins.
5960
05:00:34,000 --> 05:00:40,878
The US Army invested $463 million for AI
5961
05:00:38,718 --> 05:00:43,840
powered battlefield analytics and
5962
05:00:40,878 --> 05:00:47,920
decision support systems.
5963
05:00:43,840 --> 05:00:51,040
Palanteer stock recovered 25 to 30 per
5964
05:00:47,920 --> 05:00:53,600
share by 2024.
5965
05:00:51,040 --> 05:00:56,560
As of 2024, Peter Theel's current
5966
05:00:53,600 --> 05:00:59,120
Palanteer holdings are approximately 7%
5967
05:00:56,560 --> 05:01:03,200
of all shares with a current value
5968
05:00:59,120 --> 05:01:07,798
ranging from 3.8 to $4.5 billion
5969
05:01:03,200 --> 05:01:07,798
depending on daily stock price.
5970
05:01:09,360 --> 05:01:16,000
This makes Palunteer Theo's single
5971
05:01:12,560 --> 05:01:19,280
largest source of personal wealth. In
5972
05:01:16,000 --> 05:01:21,360
2024, Palanteer's financial performance
5973
05:01:19,280 --> 05:01:24,160
was divided between government and
5974
05:01:21,360 --> 05:01:28,958
commercial revenue. The company's net
5975
05:01:24,160 --> 05:01:30,798
income was $2.5 billion annually. And as
5976
05:01:28,958 --> 05:01:32,718
big as the number is, this might
5977
05:01:30,798 --> 05:01:35,120
represent a future problem for the
5978
05:01:32,718 --> 05:01:37,360
company. If government budget cuts
5979
05:01:35,120 --> 05:01:38,878
happen, Palanteer is extremely
5980
05:01:37,360 --> 05:01:41,120
vulnerable.
5981
05:01:38,878 --> 05:01:44,240
Their entire business model depends on
5982
05:01:41,120 --> 05:01:46,400
continued government spending.
5983
05:01:44,240 --> 05:01:47,920
Here is Peter Theel's fundamental
5984
05:01:46,400 --> 05:01:49,920
contradiction.
5985
05:01:47,920 --> 05:01:51,840
The paradox at the heart of everything
5986
05:01:49,920 --> 05:01:54,080
he has built. He claims to be a
5987
05:01:51,840 --> 05:01:57,360
libertarian who values individual
5988
05:01:54,080 --> 05:01:59,040
freedom above all else. A man who
5989
05:01:57,360 --> 05:02:01,440
believes government power should be
5990
05:01:59,040 --> 05:02:04,560
minimal. A man who wrote that freedom
5991
05:02:01,440 --> 05:02:07,200
and democracy are incompatible.
5992
05:02:04,560 --> 05:02:09,840
Yet, he built the most powerful private
5993
05:02:07,200 --> 05:02:12,560
surveillance technology company in human
5994
05:02:09,840 --> 05:02:14,320
history. A company that gives
5995
05:02:12,560 --> 05:02:17,840
governments and corporations
5996
05:02:14,320 --> 05:02:21,120
unprecedented ability to monitor, track,
5997
05:02:17,840 --> 05:02:23,520
predict, and control human behavior.
5998
05:02:21,120 --> 05:02:26,480
Palanteer's technical capabilities
5999
05:02:23,520 --> 05:02:28,798
include realtime tracking of individuals
6000
05:02:26,480 --> 05:02:31,798
across multiple data sources and
6001
05:02:28,798 --> 05:02:31,798
databases.
6002
05:02:32,480 --> 05:02:37,120
Predictive behavioral modeling that
6003
05:02:35,120 --> 05:02:40,400
forecasts what people will do before
6004
05:02:37,120 --> 05:02:42,798
they do it. Network analysis that maps
6005
05:02:40,400 --> 05:02:46,240
every person you have ever contacted
6006
05:02:42,798 --> 05:02:48,958
through any medium. Complete integration
6007
05:02:46,240 --> 05:02:52,400
of financial records. Communication
6008
05:02:48,958 --> 05:02:55,680
metadata. location history and social
6009
05:02:52,400 --> 05:02:57,600
relationship data into a single unified
6010
05:02:55,680 --> 05:03:00,160
profile.
6011
05:02:57,600 --> 05:03:02,480
Field's defense of this contradiction
6012
05:03:00,160 --> 05:03:06,718
was explaining that the alternative to
6013
05:03:02,480 --> 05:03:09,280
Palanteer is not no surveillance.
6014
05:03:06,718 --> 05:03:11,440
The alternative is worse surveillance
6015
05:03:09,280 --> 05:03:14,480
performed by incompetent government
6016
05:03:11,440 --> 05:03:18,520
bureaucrats using decades old technology
6017
05:03:14,480 --> 05:03:18,520
that does not work properly.
6018
05:03:20,160 --> 05:03:26,718
The critics's response was obvious. They
6019
05:03:23,120 --> 05:03:30,798
told Theo he had built the panopticon,
6020
05:03:26,718 --> 05:03:32,958
the architecture of total surveillance.
6021
05:03:30,798 --> 05:03:35,200
A system allowing governments around the
6022
05:03:32,958 --> 05:03:38,160
world to use their citizens information
6023
05:03:35,200 --> 05:03:40,638
to control them, not a system to protect
6024
05:03:38,160 --> 05:03:42,958
them, said the critics.
6025
05:03:40,638 --> 05:03:45,840
Palanteer now operates in dozens of
6026
05:03:42,958 --> 05:03:48,718
countries worldwide. the United States,
6027
05:03:45,840 --> 05:03:51,600
the United Kingdom, Germany, France,
6028
05:03:48,718 --> 05:03:53,760
Australia, and even Japan.
6029
05:03:51,600 --> 05:03:56,798
The company has some controversial
6030
05:03:53,760 --> 05:03:59,760
international clients, some confirmed,
6031
05:03:56,798 --> 05:04:03,280
some alleged, but the total estimated
6032
05:03:59,760 --> 05:04:07,680
value of all global contracts lifetime,
6033
05:04:03,280 --> 05:04:11,200
over $10 billion in contract value.
6034
05:04:07,680 --> 05:04:14,718
Palanteer is Peter Theo's most important
6035
05:04:11,200 --> 05:04:17,280
company. Not because of its valuation,
6036
05:04:14,718 --> 05:04:19,440
though that is substantial. Not because
6037
05:04:17,280 --> 05:04:22,878
of its revenue, though that is
6038
05:04:19,440 --> 05:04:25,200
significant. Palanteer is important
6039
05:04:22,878 --> 05:04:28,160
because it reveals the truth about
6040
05:04:25,200 --> 05:04:30,798
Theo's worldview. It is the bridge
6041
05:04:28,160 --> 05:04:34,400
between his libertarian philosophy and
6042
05:04:30,798 --> 05:04:37,440
his authoritarian reality. He claims to
6043
05:04:34,400 --> 05:04:40,160
want freedom from government control.
6044
05:04:37,440 --> 05:04:42,320
But Palanteer gives governments
6045
05:04:40,160 --> 05:04:44,958
unprecedented control over their
6046
05:04:42,320 --> 05:04:48,000
citizens. The resolution of this
6047
05:04:44,958 --> 05:04:51,280
apparent contradiction, Peter Theel
6048
05:04:48,000 --> 05:04:55,440
believes in freedom for the elite and
6049
05:04:51,280 --> 05:04:57,680
surveillance for everyone else.
6050
05:04:55,440 --> 05:05:00,958
In his vision of the world, there are
6051
05:04:57,680 --> 05:05:03,120
rulers and there are the ruled. There
6052
05:05:00,958 --> 05:05:05,760
are the people who make the decisions
6053
05:05:03,120 --> 05:05:08,320
and the people who are managed.
6054
05:05:05,760 --> 05:05:11,680
Palanteer is the enforcement mechanism
6055
05:05:08,320 --> 05:05:14,958
for that hierarchy. The technology that
6056
05:05:11,680 --> 05:05:17,200
ensures the rulers can see everything.
6057
05:05:14,958 --> 05:05:20,240
The system that makes resistance
6058
05:05:17,200 --> 05:05:23,360
impossible because privacy no longer
6059
05:05:20,240 --> 05:05:26,560
exists. And Peter Theal sits at the
6060
05:05:23,360 --> 05:05:29,760
center of that eye, watching the world,
6061
05:05:26,560 --> 05:05:33,480
seeing everything. the architect of the
6062
05:05:29,760 --> 05:05:33,480
surveillance state.
6063
05:05:36,000 --> 05:05:41,760
In 2016, Peter Theel made an investment
6064
05:05:39,680 --> 05:05:45,040
that every other major technology
6065
05:05:41,760 --> 05:05:47,440
investor avoided.
6066
05:05:45,040 --> 05:05:49,600
While his peers in Silicon Valley were
6067
05:05:47,440 --> 05:05:53,360
contributing millions to the opposing
6068
05:05:49,600 --> 05:05:56,160
campaign, Theel wrote a check for $1.25
6069
05:05:53,360 --> 05:06:00,320
million to Donald Trump's presidential
6070
05:05:56,160 --> 05:06:04,080
campaign. This was not ideology. This
6071
05:06:00,320 --> 05:06:07,200
was portfolio diversification.
6072
05:06:04,080 --> 05:06:11,760
Feel has always invested in contrarian
6073
05:06:07,200 --> 05:06:14,560
positions. When everyone zigs, he zags.
6074
05:06:11,760 --> 05:06:17,520
When consensus forms in one direction,
6075
05:06:14,560 --> 05:06:21,440
he looks for asymmetric opportunities in
6076
05:06:17,520 --> 05:06:24,000
the other. The 2006 donation gave him
6077
05:06:21,440 --> 05:06:27,200
something money usually cannot buy in
6078
05:06:24,000 --> 05:06:30,638
Silicon Valley. direct access to
6079
05:06:27,200 --> 05:06:34,160
executive power, the return on that
6080
05:06:30,638 --> 05:06:36,798
$1.25 $25 million investment,
6081
05:06:34,160 --> 05:06:40,240
a seat on the presidential transition
6082
05:06:36,798 --> 05:06:43,440
team, input on federal technology
6083
05:06:40,240 --> 05:06:46,240
policy, direct communication channels to
6084
05:06:43,440 --> 05:06:49,760
the White House, credibility as a
6085
05:06:46,240 --> 05:06:52,400
Washington power broker,
6086
05:06:49,760 --> 05:06:54,080
and most measurably, Palanteer's
6087
05:06:52,400 --> 05:06:57,520
government contracts increased
6088
05:06:54,080 --> 05:06:59,920
substantially during this period.
6089
05:06:57,520 --> 05:07:03,200
but feels most significant political
6090
05:06:59,920 --> 05:07:04,718
investments came in the 2022 midterm
6091
05:07:03,200 --> 05:07:08,480
elections.
6092
05:07:04,718 --> 05:07:12,000
Two candidates, both former employees,
6093
05:07:08,480 --> 05:07:13,840
both running for United States Senate.
6094
05:07:12,000 --> 05:07:16,798
The financial commitment was
6095
05:07:13,840 --> 05:07:19,200
unprecedented in scale.
6096
05:07:16,798 --> 05:07:21,360
Vance had worked at Theel's venture
6097
05:07:19,200 --> 05:07:24,320
capital firm before writing his
6098
05:07:21,360 --> 05:07:27,600
best-selling memoir. Field's total
6099
05:07:24,320 --> 05:07:31,360
financial commitment. Direct campaign
6100
05:07:27,600 --> 05:07:35,360
contribution $15 million.
6101
05:07:31,360 --> 05:07:39,120
Super PAC expenditures $5 million.
6102
05:07:35,360 --> 05:07:42,320
Combined investment $20 million.
6103
05:07:39,120 --> 05:07:44,718
This set a record as the largest single
6104
05:07:42,320 --> 05:07:48,240
donor contribution to an individual
6105
05:07:44,718 --> 05:07:51,360
Senate campaign in American history. The
6106
05:07:48,240 --> 05:07:55,040
outcome, Vance won by six percentage
6107
05:07:51,360 --> 05:07:57,840
points. Masters had worked directly for
6108
05:07:55,040 --> 05:08:00,958
Theel as chief operating officer at
6109
05:07:57,840 --> 05:08:02,878
Theel Capital. Theel's financial
6110
05:08:00,958 --> 05:08:05,920
commitment to his campaign was a
6111
05:08:02,878 --> 05:08:09,040
combined investment of $20 million, but
6112
05:08:05,920 --> 05:08:11,120
unlike Vance, Masters lost by 5
6113
05:08:09,040 --> 05:08:14,718
percentage points.
6114
05:08:11,120 --> 05:08:18,638
Theo's total 2022 midterm investment was
6115
05:08:14,718 --> 05:08:20,480
over $40 million in two Senate races.
6116
05:08:18,638 --> 05:08:22,718
Two different candidates that would have
6117
05:08:20,480 --> 05:08:26,000
allowed him to be in direct touch with
6118
05:08:22,718 --> 05:08:28,320
power at different chambers and stages.
6119
05:08:26,000 --> 05:08:30,718
For context, the average competitive
6120
05:08:28,320 --> 05:08:34,480
Senate race costs approximately $10
6121
05:08:30,718 --> 05:08:39,160
million total. Peter Theal invested four
6122
05:08:34,480 --> 05:08:39,160
times that amount on two races.
6123
05:08:39,760 --> 05:08:45,280
It's July 2024.
6124
05:08:42,160 --> 05:08:48,718
JD Vance is selected as the Republican
6125
05:08:45,280 --> 05:08:51,360
vice presidential candidate. From a pure
6126
05:08:48,718 --> 05:08:54,000
investment analysis perspective, this
6127
05:08:51,360 --> 05:08:56,638
transforms the return profile on Theo's
6128
05:08:54,000 --> 05:08:58,480
$20 million commitment. He has
6129
05:08:56,638 --> 05:09:01,600
considered the potential financial
6130
05:08:58,480 --> 05:09:04,718
implications if this ticket wins and he
6131
05:09:01,600 --> 05:09:08,160
gets access to executive branch
6132
05:09:04,718 --> 05:09:11,040
decisionmaking for 8 years. influence
6133
05:09:08,160 --> 05:09:13,120
over federal contract allocation across
6134
05:09:11,040 --> 05:09:16,080
multiple agencies.
6135
05:09:13,120 --> 05:09:20,320
Input on technology regulation affecting
6136
05:09:16,080 --> 05:09:22,560
the portfolio companies.
6137
05:09:20,320 --> 05:09:24,718
If we consider what's the estimated
6138
05:09:22,560 --> 05:09:28,080
return on investment for Palanteer's
6139
05:09:24,718 --> 05:09:30,240
government business, what we see is
6140
05:09:28,080 --> 05:09:33,120
current annual government revenue of
6141
05:09:30,240 --> 05:09:35,840
$1.5 billion.
6142
05:09:33,120 --> 05:09:39,120
potential additional contract value over
6143
05:09:35,840 --> 05:09:42,120
eight years conservatively 5 to10
6144
05:09:39,120 --> 05:09:42,120
billion
6145
05:09:42,160 --> 05:09:48,798
and other defense companies in the
6146
05:09:45,200 --> 05:09:50,480
network potential 3 to5 billion in
6147
05:09:48,798 --> 05:09:52,958
contracts
6148
05:09:50,480 --> 05:09:56,480
regulatory treatment of cryptocurrency
6149
05:09:52,958 --> 05:09:59,480
holdings value potentially in tens of
6150
05:09:56,480 --> 05:09:59,480
billions.
6151
05:10:01,200 --> 05:10:07,280
The theoretical return of those 20
6152
05:10:03,680 --> 05:10:10,638
million invested is potentially 15 to 20
6153
05:10:07,280 --> 05:10:14,638
billion captured across the portfolio.
6154
05:10:10,638 --> 05:10:18,320
That represents a potential of 750 to
6155
05:10:14,638 --> 05:10:20,638
1,000 times return. By comparison,
6156
05:10:18,320 --> 05:10:22,958
Theel's Facebook investment returned
6157
05:10:20,638 --> 05:10:25,360
2,000 times.
6158
05:10:22,958 --> 05:10:30,798
To sum it up, the complete political
6159
05:10:25,360 --> 05:10:33,120
spending of the from 2016 to 2022 is 70
6160
05:10:30,798 --> 05:10:36,080
to $80 million.
6161
05:10:33,120 --> 05:10:39,360
For context, Amazon spends 20 million
6162
05:10:36,080 --> 05:10:42,080
annually on lobbying. Meta spends 20
6163
05:10:39,360 --> 05:10:45,840
million annual on lobbying. Google
6164
05:10:42,080 --> 05:10:48,480
spends 12 million annually on lobbying.
6165
05:10:45,840 --> 05:10:51,360
Field's approach is different. Rather
6166
05:10:48,480 --> 05:10:53,600
than ongoing lobbying expenditures, he
6167
05:10:51,360 --> 05:10:56,080
makes concentrated investments in
6168
05:10:53,600 --> 05:11:01,560
individual candidates who potentially
6169
05:10:56,080 --> 05:11:01,560
provide access for years or decades.
6170
05:11:01,600 --> 05:11:06,718
It is the venture capital model applied
6171
05:11:04,080 --> 05:11:09,680
to politics. Make early stage
6172
05:11:06,718 --> 05:11:12,160
investments in promising candidates.
6173
05:11:09,680 --> 05:11:15,440
Provide sufficient capital to help them
6174
05:11:12,160 --> 05:11:18,000
win. Capture value through long-term
6175
05:11:15,440 --> 05:11:20,638
relationships and access.
6176
05:11:18,000 --> 05:11:23,440
The candidates Theel has supported now
6177
05:11:20,638 --> 05:11:25,920
serve on key committees.
6178
05:11:23,440 --> 05:11:27,440
Technology regulation, defense
6179
05:11:25,920 --> 05:11:30,400
appropriations,
6180
05:11:27,440 --> 05:11:33,200
intelligence oversight, banking and
6181
05:11:30,400 --> 05:11:35,360
financial services.
6182
05:11:33,200 --> 05:11:37,840
Precisely the committees that oversee
6183
05:11:35,360 --> 05:11:40,320
industries where Theel has billions
6184
05:11:37,840 --> 05:11:43,040
invested and where he can use some
6185
05:11:40,320 --> 05:11:45,680
privileged information.
6186
05:11:43,040 --> 05:11:50,798
Is political investment a good use of
6187
05:11:45,680 --> 05:11:53,920
capital? The mathematics suggest yes 70
6188
05:11:50,798 --> 05:11:57,360
to 80 million represents less than 1% of
6189
05:11:53,920 --> 05:12:00,000
the's net worth. The potential return if
6190
05:11:57,360 --> 05:12:02,798
access translate to favorable treatment
6191
05:12:00,000 --> 05:12:06,560
for portfolio companies could be worth
6192
05:12:02,798 --> 05:12:09,360
billions. Even with a 50% success rate,
6193
05:12:06,560 --> 05:12:11,040
the expected value is positive by orders
6194
05:12:09,360 --> 05:12:14,160
of magnitude.
6195
05:12:11,040 --> 05:12:18,240
Investment 70 to 80 million over 8
6196
05:12:14,160 --> 05:12:21,440
years. Potential value captured 15 to 30
6197
05:12:18,240 --> 05:12:28,000
billion across portfolio. Expected
6198
05:12:21,440 --> 05:12:30,480
return 200 to 400 times invested capital
6199
05:12:28,000 --> 05:12:33,760
that rivals the best venture capital
6200
05:12:30,480 --> 05:12:37,040
returns in history. Peter Theel is not
6201
05:12:33,760 --> 05:12:40,040
playing politics. He is optimizing his
6202
05:12:37,040 --> 05:12:40,040
portfolio.
6203
05:12:41,360 --> 05:12:47,280
Chapter 7. The final exit.
6204
05:12:45,200 --> 05:12:50,080
Peter Theal has spent his life betting
6205
05:12:47,280 --> 05:12:52,638
on the future, building it, funding it,
6206
05:12:50,080 --> 05:12:56,560
accelerating it. But there is one
6207
05:12:52,638 --> 05:13:01,360
frontier he refuses to accept as fixed.
6208
05:12:56,560 --> 05:13:03,840
Death. To him, mortality is not destiny.
6209
05:13:01,360 --> 05:13:06,240
It is an engineering problem waiting for
6210
05:13:03,840 --> 05:13:08,320
a breakthrough. Unlike every other
6211
05:13:06,240 --> 05:13:11,520
system he has challenged, he believes
6212
05:13:08,320 --> 05:13:14,240
this one too can be redesigned.
6213
05:13:11,520 --> 05:13:17,360
While others plan for retirement, Theel
6214
05:13:14,240 --> 05:13:19,920
funds longevity labs. While governments
6215
05:13:17,360 --> 05:13:21,440
plan for decades, he thinks in
6216
05:13:19,920 --> 05:13:23,680
centuries.
6217
05:13:21,440 --> 05:13:26,240
If time is the ultimate constraint on
6218
05:13:23,680 --> 05:13:29,040
power, then extending life is the
6219
05:13:26,240 --> 05:13:32,240
ultimate leverage. At the edge of the
6220
05:13:29,040 --> 05:13:34,958
world, he built a refuge. Far from
6221
05:13:32,240 --> 05:13:39,440
political centers, far from social
6222
05:13:34,958 --> 05:13:41,760
unrest, close only to time. In Silicon
6223
05:13:39,440 --> 05:13:45,440
Valley, there is a dark joke shared
6224
05:13:41,760 --> 05:13:47,600
quietly among founders and investors.
6225
05:13:45,440 --> 05:13:50,080
How many billionaires does it take to
6226
05:13:47,600 --> 05:13:53,120
buy a country?
6227
05:13:50,080 --> 05:13:56,440
Just one, if he is smart enough to get
6228
05:13:53,120 --> 05:13:56,440
there first.
6229
05:13:56,878 --> 05:14:01,520
He invested in digital currencies that
6230
05:13:59,120 --> 05:14:03,600
governments cannot print. In
6231
05:14:01,520 --> 05:14:06,400
surveillance systems that see what
6232
05:14:03,600 --> 05:14:08,878
others cannot. In political candidates
6233
05:14:06,400 --> 05:14:11,600
who might shape the rules. In
6234
05:14:08,878 --> 05:14:15,280
technologies that might outlive biology
6235
05:14:11,600 --> 05:14:18,920
itself. Not to save the world, to
6236
05:14:15,280 --> 05:14:18,920
outlast it.
6237
05:14:20,878 --> 05:14:26,400
What began as a contingency plan for a
6238
05:14:23,520 --> 05:14:29,200
few has become an unspoken strategy
6239
05:14:26,400 --> 05:14:31,600
among the ultra wealthy.
6240
05:14:29,200 --> 05:14:34,160
When the New Zealand citizenship story
6241
05:14:31,600 --> 05:14:37,760
became public, one of Theo's closest
6242
05:14:34,160 --> 05:14:40,560
peers, Sam Alman, put it bluntly.
6243
05:14:37,760 --> 05:14:43,520
If things go really wrong, I'm flying to
6244
05:14:40,560 --> 05:14:46,718
Peter's place.
6245
05:14:43,520 --> 05:14:49,920
Some men try to make history. Peter
6246
05:14:46,718 --> 05:14:52,718
Theel is trying to escape it.
6247
05:14:49,920 --> 05:14:57,958
And if the future breaks, he intends to
6248
05:14:52,718 --> 05:14:57,958
be standing somewhere it cannot reach.
6249
05:16:23,760 --> 05:16:28,798
Most people see this and think culture.
6250
05:16:26,798 --> 05:16:31,280
They see a charming eco-friendly
6251
05:16:28,798 --> 05:16:34,080
tradition.
6252
05:16:31,280 --> 05:16:36,480
But look closer. This isn't just people
6253
05:16:34,080 --> 05:16:39,040
liking to pedal. What you were watching
6254
05:16:36,480 --> 05:16:40,798
is a highfrequency, low friction
6255
05:16:39,040 --> 05:16:42,718
economic machine.
6256
05:16:40,798 --> 05:16:44,718
>> Ultimately, private car ownership is
6257
05:16:42,718 --> 05:16:46,240
going to become obsolete. Cities are
6258
05:16:44,718 --> 05:16:47,920
building for pedestrians. They're
6259
05:16:46,240 --> 05:16:51,360
building for cycling. They're building
6260
05:16:47,920 --> 05:16:54,080
for livability, not for cars.
6261
05:16:51,360 --> 05:16:57,958
>> The bike economy, the multi-billion
6262
05:16:54,080 --> 05:16:57,958
dollar system of Amsterdam.
6263
05:16:59,120 --> 05:17:05,920
In Amsterdam, the bicycle isn't a toy.
6264
05:17:02,560 --> 05:17:08,718
It is a critical urban infrastructure.
6265
05:17:05,920 --> 05:17:13,160
If this system failed today, the city's
6266
05:17:08,718 --> 05:17:13,160
economy would collapse tomorrow.
6267
05:17:13,280 --> 05:17:18,480
For decades, the world has viewed
6268
05:17:15,200 --> 05:17:21,680
Amsterdam through a romantic lens. But
6269
05:17:18,480 --> 05:17:24,240
cities don't run on vibes. They run on
6270
05:17:21,680 --> 05:17:26,160
systems. And when a system moves
6271
05:17:24,240 --> 05:17:29,120
hundreds of thousands of people every
6272
05:17:26,160 --> 05:17:32,400
single day, it stops being a choice and
6273
05:17:29,120 --> 05:17:35,200
starts demanding three things. space,
6274
05:17:32,400 --> 05:17:37,520
rules, and capital.
6275
05:17:35,200 --> 05:17:39,680
Research shows that the cycling system
6276
05:17:37,520 --> 05:17:43,280
contributes benefits equivalent to
6277
05:17:39,680 --> 05:17:46,240
roughly 3% of the Netherlands GDP.
6278
05:17:43,280 --> 05:17:49,040
This isn't just green energy. It's hard
6279
05:17:46,240 --> 05:17:51,600
cash saved in public health, reduced
6280
05:17:49,040 --> 05:17:54,480
absenteeism at work, and most
6281
05:17:51,600 --> 05:17:57,120
importantly, unlocked productivity.
6282
05:17:54,480 --> 05:17:59,840
Every person on a bike is a person who
6283
05:17:57,120 --> 05:18:01,520
isn't taking up 12 square m of public
6284
05:17:59,840 --> 05:18:04,000
space with a car.
6285
05:18:01,520 --> 05:18:07,520
That freed up space allows for high
6286
05:18:04,000 --> 05:18:10,240
value real estate, commerce and tourism.
6287
05:18:07,520 --> 05:18:13,878
In economics, we call this optimization
6288
05:18:10,240 --> 05:18:13,878
of land use.
6289
05:18:15,360 --> 05:18:22,240
But success created a crisis. By the
6290
05:18:18,718 --> 05:18:24,320
2010s, Amsterdam had a clutter problem.
6291
05:18:22,240 --> 05:18:27,760
Thousands of bikes were choking the
6292
05:18:24,320 --> 05:18:29,760
streets. The solution? one of the most
6293
05:18:27,760 --> 05:18:32,878
expensive and daring engineering
6294
05:18:29,760 --> 05:18:36,718
projects in the city. They built a
6295
05:18:32,878 --> 05:18:38,320
cathedral for 7,000 bicycles under the
6296
05:18:36,718 --> 05:18:40,958
water.
6297
05:18:38,320 --> 05:18:42,958
It cost millions. From a traditional
6298
05:18:40,958 --> 05:18:46,400
linear perspective, spending that much
6299
05:18:42,958 --> 05:18:48,878
on free parking seems insane. But from a
6300
05:18:46,400 --> 05:18:51,280
circular economy perspective, a model
6301
05:18:48,878 --> 05:18:54,638
where Amsterdam is a global leader with
6302
05:18:51,280 --> 05:18:57,440
30.6% circularity rate, it was a
6303
05:18:54,638 --> 05:18:59,600
mandatory investment. As we see in the
6304
05:18:57,440 --> 05:19:02,160
latest urban governance reports,
6305
05:18:59,600 --> 05:19:04,798
planning isn't an option here. It's the
6306
05:19:02,160 --> 05:19:07,360
only way to exist.
6307
05:19:04,798 --> 05:19:10,480
In this documentary, we are going beyond
6308
05:19:07,360 --> 05:19:13,600
the postcard. We will travel back to
6309
05:19:10,480 --> 05:19:16,798
1965 to see why the first sharing
6310
05:19:13,600 --> 05:19:19,440
economy experiment failed. We will use
6311
05:19:16,798 --> 05:19:22,480
scientific GPS data to track the shadow
6312
05:19:19,440 --> 05:19:26,000
economy of the 80,000 bikes stolen every
6313
05:19:22,480 --> 05:19:28,000
year. and we will explore how Amsterdam
6314
05:19:26,000 --> 05:19:31,600
is using the bicycle to become the
6315
05:19:28,000 --> 05:19:35,040
world's first 100% circular city by
6316
05:19:31,600 --> 05:19:37,120
2050. This is the story of how a humble
6317
05:19:35,040 --> 05:19:39,920
machine with two wheels became the
6318
05:19:37,120 --> 05:19:42,920
backbone of a multi-billion dollar urban
6319
05:19:39,920 --> 05:19:42,920
miracle.
6320
05:19:45,680 --> 05:19:51,760
To understand why Amsterdam spends €85
6321
05:19:48,638 --> 05:19:54,240
million on underwater parking today, we
6322
05:19:51,760 --> 05:19:57,520
have to go back to a time when the city
6323
05:19:54,240 --> 05:20:00,520
almost lost its soul to the car, the
6324
05:19:57,520 --> 05:20:00,520
1960s.
6325
05:20:04,718 --> 05:20:10,958
As postwar prosperity grew, Amsterdam
6326
05:20:07,760 --> 05:20:13,120
was being choked by motor vehicles.
6327
05:20:10,958 --> 05:20:15,200
In response, a counterculture group
6328
05:20:13,120 --> 05:20:17,680
called the Provos launched what would
6329
05:20:15,200 --> 05:20:21,200
become the first bike sharing program in
6330
05:20:17,680 --> 05:20:23,520
history. The Vita Fieten plan or the
6331
05:20:21,200 --> 05:20:26,160
white bike plan.
6332
05:20:23,520 --> 05:20:30,240
Their proposal was radical and purely
6333
05:20:26,160 --> 05:20:32,480
idealistic. Paint 20,000 bicycles white,
6334
05:20:30,240 --> 05:20:35,840
leave them unlocked across the city, and
6335
05:20:32,480 --> 05:20:38,798
let anyone use them for free. No keys,
6336
05:20:35,840 --> 05:20:42,000
no coins, no owners. They viewed
6337
05:20:38,798 --> 05:20:45,040
mobility as a public good, as essential
6338
05:20:42,000 --> 05:20:48,000
and free as the air we breathe. On
6339
05:20:45,040 --> 05:20:52,240
paper, it was a circular economy, avant
6340
05:20:48,000 --> 05:20:55,680
letra. In practice, it was a disaster.
6341
05:20:52,240 --> 05:20:57,840
Within days, the system collapsed. Why?
6342
05:20:55,680 --> 05:21:00,878
Because the provos ignored a fundamental
6343
05:20:57,840 --> 05:21:04,120
principle of economics, the tragedy of
6344
05:21:00,878 --> 05:21:04,120
the commons.
6345
05:21:39,360 --> 05:21:44,240
Without ownership or registration,
6346
05:21:41,600 --> 05:21:46,718
public property quickly became nobody's
6347
05:21:44,240 --> 05:21:49,040
property. property. In an unregulated
6348
05:21:46,718 --> 05:21:50,878
system with zero entry cost, the
6349
05:21:49,040 --> 05:21:53,040
incentive to maintain the asset
6350
05:21:50,878 --> 05:21:55,680
disappears. Without locks or
6351
05:21:53,040 --> 05:21:58,480
registration, public property quickly
6352
05:21:55,680 --> 05:22:00,320
became nobody's property. The police
6353
05:21:58,480 --> 05:22:03,440
confiscated the bikes because they
6354
05:22:00,320 --> 05:22:05,920
invited theft and the citizens driven by
6355
05:22:03,440 --> 05:22:10,160
individual rationalism either took them
6356
05:22:05,920 --> 05:22:12,958
home or threw them into the canals.
6357
05:22:10,160 --> 05:22:15,040
The lesson was harsh. You cannot have a
6358
05:22:12,958 --> 05:22:17,360
massive urban transit system based
6359
05:22:15,040 --> 05:22:21,000
solely on romanticism.
6360
05:22:17,360 --> 05:22:21,000
You need governance.
6361
05:22:22,718 --> 05:22:28,718
However, the white bikes planted a seed.
6362
05:22:25,760 --> 05:22:30,480
It shifted the economic debate. The city
6363
05:22:28,718 --> 05:22:32,718
realized that if they didn't want to
6364
05:22:30,480 --> 05:22:35,360
spend billions on highways like Los
6365
05:22:32,718 --> 05:22:38,080
Angeles or London, they had to invest in
6366
05:22:35,360 --> 05:22:40,480
a different kind of capital. Transition
6367
05:22:38,080 --> 05:22:43,440
requires not just technology, but a
6368
05:22:40,480 --> 05:22:45,600
change in urban metabolism.
6369
05:22:43,440 --> 05:22:47,840
The failure of the white bikes taught
6370
05:22:45,600 --> 05:22:50,000
Amsterdam that the bicycle had to be
6371
05:22:47,840 --> 05:22:53,120
integrated into the formal economy of
6372
05:22:50,000 --> 05:22:56,798
the city, not as a rebel symbol, but as
6373
05:22:53,120 --> 05:22:58,798
a regulated, taxed, and planned asset.
6374
05:22:56,798 --> 05:23:01,600
Today, the free spirit of the white
6375
05:22:58,798 --> 05:23:04,798
bikes only survives in one place, the
6376
05:23:01,600 --> 05:23:06,958
Hoga Valu National Park. But in the
6377
05:23:04,798 --> 05:23:09,680
city, the white bike has been replaced
6378
05:23:06,958 --> 05:23:12,240
by a sophisticated capital incentive
6379
05:23:09,680 --> 05:23:14,560
model. We no longer trust in the
6380
05:23:12,240 --> 05:23:17,600
goodness of the user. We trust in
6381
05:23:14,560 --> 05:23:19,920
incentives. We move the tragedy of the
6382
05:23:17,600 --> 05:23:23,200
commons to a system of managed common
6383
05:23:19,920 --> 05:23:26,320
pool resources. In economics, success
6384
05:23:23,200 --> 05:23:29,200
can be as disruptive as failure. By the
6385
05:23:26,320 --> 05:23:31,760
late 2010s, Amsterdam was a victim of
6386
05:23:29,200 --> 05:23:34,240
its own efficiency. With nearly 1
6387
05:23:31,760 --> 05:23:37,040
million bicycles in the city, the urban
6388
05:23:34,240 --> 05:23:39,920
surface had reached a breaking point.
6389
05:23:37,040 --> 05:23:43,120
Every bridge, railing, and sidewalk was
6390
05:23:39,920 --> 05:23:45,680
occupied by idle metal.
6391
05:23:43,120 --> 05:23:48,798
This wasn't just an aesthetic grievance.
6392
05:23:45,680 --> 05:23:51,120
It was an economic bottleneck. Thousands
6393
05:23:48,798 --> 05:23:54,160
of parked bikes were clogging the city's
6394
05:23:51,120 --> 05:23:57,120
arteries, slowing down 200,000 daily
6395
05:23:54,160 --> 05:23:59,280
commuters at Central Station. In one of
6396
05:23:57,120 --> 05:24:01,920
the world's most expensive real estate
6397
05:23:59,280 --> 05:24:04,240
markets, free surface parking is a
6398
05:24:01,920 --> 05:24:06,798
luxury that a functional city cannot
6399
05:24:04,240 --> 05:24:10,160
afford. The opportunity cost of that
6400
05:24:06,798 --> 05:24:13,520
space was becoming too high. To solve
6401
05:24:10,160 --> 05:24:16,480
this, Amsterdam launched the entre, a
6402
05:24:13,520 --> 05:24:19,280
massive urban reconfiguration project.
6403
05:24:16,480 --> 05:24:21,600
The crown jewel, the open haven
6404
05:24:19,280 --> 05:24:24,480
underwater parking.
6405
05:24:21,600 --> 05:24:27,760
Consider that figure. Spending €60
6406
05:24:24,480 --> 05:24:29,280
million just to store 7,000 bicycles
6407
05:24:27,760 --> 05:24:31,680
underwater.
6408
05:24:29,280 --> 05:24:34,798
To a traditional accountant, this looks
6409
05:24:31,680 --> 05:24:37,520
like a massive sunk cost. But to an
6410
05:24:34,798 --> 05:24:41,280
urban economist, it's a master stroke of
6411
05:24:37,520 --> 05:24:43,600
asset management. By moving 7,000 bikes
6412
05:24:41,280 --> 05:24:46,400
beneath the water, the city performed
6413
05:24:43,600 --> 05:24:48,400
open heart surgery on its central hub.
6414
05:24:46,400 --> 05:24:51,680
They reclaimed the surface, restoring
6415
05:24:48,400 --> 05:24:54,000
the landscape to its 1900's aesthetic.
6416
05:24:51,680 --> 05:24:57,280
This isn't just about beauty. It's about
6417
05:24:54,000 --> 05:24:59,520
maximizing pedestrian flow. A station
6418
05:24:57,280 --> 05:25:02,080
that breathes and flows is a station
6419
05:24:59,520 --> 05:25:05,200
that generates higher economic value for
6420
05:25:02,080 --> 05:25:08,240
the surrounding businesses. However, an
6421
05:25:05,200 --> 05:25:10,080
85 million euro asset must be managed
6422
05:25:08,240 --> 05:25:12,958
like a high performance logistics
6423
05:25:10,080 --> 05:25:15,680
center. You cannot allow zombie bikes to
6424
05:25:12,958 --> 05:25:17,680
occupy these slots indefinitely.
6425
05:25:15,680 --> 05:25:21,280
This is where the incentive structure
6426
05:25:17,680 --> 05:25:24,638
comes into play. The primary goal isn't
6427
05:25:21,280 --> 05:25:27,200
profit, it's turnover. By offering the
6428
05:25:24,638 --> 05:25:30,560
first 24 hours for free, the city
6429
05:25:27,200 --> 05:25:33,040
subsidizes the daily workforce. But by
6430
05:25:30,560 --> 05:25:35,120
charging a daily fee thereafter, they
6431
05:25:33,040 --> 05:25:36,638
penalize long-term storage and
6432
05:25:35,120 --> 05:25:39,360
abandonment.
6433
05:25:36,638 --> 05:25:42,400
Using advanced optical sensors, the city
6434
05:25:39,360 --> 05:25:45,520
monitors idle infantry in real time,
6435
05:25:42,400 --> 05:25:47,520
ensuring that these 7,000 slots remain a
6436
05:25:45,520 --> 05:25:51,000
liquid asset for those who keep the
6437
05:25:47,520 --> 05:25:51,000
economy moving.
6438
05:25:51,040 --> 05:25:56,280
Finally, we must consider the cost of
6439
05:25:53,280 --> 05:25:56,280
friction.
6440
05:26:00,480 --> 05:26:03,480
Transport,
6441
05:26:26,560 --> 05:26:29,718
the last
6442
05:26:31,680 --> 05:26:36,480
In transport economics, every second
6443
05:26:33,920 --> 05:26:38,798
lost in a transfer is a loss in human
6444
05:26:36,480 --> 05:26:40,878
capital and productivity.
6445
05:26:38,798 --> 05:26:42,798
This underwater facility connects
6446
05:26:40,878 --> 05:26:44,320
directly to the metro and train
6447
05:26:42,798 --> 05:26:46,480
platforms.
6448
05:26:44,320 --> 05:26:48,958
A commuter can transition from their
6449
05:26:46,480 --> 05:26:51,920
bicycle to their train seat in less than
6450
05:26:48,958 --> 05:26:54,480
2 minutes, shielded from the elements.
6451
05:26:51,920 --> 05:26:56,798
This level of intermodel synergy is
6452
05:26:54,480 --> 05:27:00,400
exactly what makes Amsterdam's circular
6453
05:26:56,798 --> 05:27:03,440
economy, currently at a record 30.6%
6454
05:27:00,400 --> 05:27:08,040
circularity rate, a functional reality
6455
05:27:03,440 --> 05:27:08,040
rather than just a policy goal.
6456
05:27:30,798 --> 05:27:35,360
But this transition to a highly
6457
05:27:32,558 --> 05:27:37,600
regulated system created its own set of
6458
05:27:35,360 --> 05:27:40,480
problems. Because when you turn a
6459
05:27:37,600 --> 05:27:42,958
bicycle into a valuable economic asset,
6460
05:27:40,480 --> 05:27:46,400
you create something else, a black
6461
05:27:42,958 --> 05:27:49,360
market. In Amsterdam, data doesn't tell
6462
05:27:46,400 --> 05:27:52,080
the whole story. While police record
6463
05:27:49,360 --> 05:27:54,958
11,000 thefts a year, the reality is
6464
05:27:52,080 --> 05:27:57,920
closer to 80,000.
6465
05:27:54,958 --> 05:28:00,480
Most citizens don't report it. Cost of
6466
05:27:57,920 --> 05:28:02,718
time is higher than the bike's value.
6467
05:28:00,480 --> 05:28:04,958
This creates a massive shadow market
6468
05:28:02,718 --> 05:28:06,400
operating entirely outside the official
6469
05:28:04,958 --> 05:28:08,480
GDP.
6470
05:28:06,400 --> 05:28:11,200
Forget the myth of international bike
6471
05:28:08,480 --> 05:28:14,958
smuggling rings.
6472
05:28:11,200 --> 05:28:17,120
A 2023 study tracking 100 bikes proved
6473
05:28:14,958 --> 05:28:20,240
that stolen assets rarely leave the
6474
05:28:17,120 --> 05:28:22,878
city. Instead, they feed a shadow
6475
05:28:20,240 --> 05:28:25,040
circular economy. Your stolen bike is
6476
05:28:22,878 --> 05:28:27,520
sold to a street dealer and then bought
6477
05:28:25,040 --> 05:28:32,320
by your neighbor. It's a localized,
6478
05:28:27,520 --> 05:28:34,480
untaxed, and illegal closed loop.
6479
05:28:32,320 --> 05:28:37,040
High theft risk creates a market
6480
05:28:34,480 --> 05:28:39,440
distortion. If you expect your bike to
6481
05:28:37,040 --> 05:28:43,280
be stolen within months, you don't buy
6482
05:28:39,440 --> 05:28:45,600
quality, you buy junk. This beta bike
6483
05:28:43,280 --> 05:28:48,240
equilibrium keeps the city's transport
6484
05:28:45,600 --> 05:28:50,240
fleet low quality and forces owners to
6485
05:28:48,240 --> 05:28:52,240
spend more on locks than the bikes
6486
05:28:50,240 --> 05:28:55,040
themselves.
6487
05:28:52,240 --> 05:28:57,360
These aren't victimless crimes. They are
6488
05:28:55,040 --> 05:29:01,280
negative externalities that drain city
6489
05:28:57,360 --> 05:29:04,240
resources. Amsterdam's answer, the Fiat
6490
05:29:01,280 --> 05:29:06,638
depot. Since the city couldn't stop the
6491
05:29:04,240 --> 05:29:09,760
theft, it decided to manage the orphaned
6492
05:29:06,638 --> 05:29:12,320
assets. Because in a circular city, even
6493
05:29:09,760 --> 05:29:14,000
a stolen bike is a resource that must be
6494
05:29:12,320 --> 05:29:17,000
managed to maintain the urban
6495
05:29:14,000 --> 05:29:17,000
metabolism.
6496
05:29:17,440 --> 05:29:21,680
In a city with more bicycles than
6497
05:29:19,520 --> 05:29:23,440
people, orphaned assets are an
6498
05:29:21,680 --> 05:29:25,280
inevitability.
6499
05:29:23,440 --> 05:29:28,320
Every year, thousands of bikes are
6500
05:29:25,280 --> 05:29:30,958
simply left behind. In economic terms,
6501
05:29:28,320 --> 05:29:33,680
this is dead capital. They occupy
6502
05:29:30,958 --> 05:29:35,600
valuable public space, provide zero
6503
05:29:33,680 --> 05:29:37,200
utility, and degrade the urban
6504
05:29:35,600 --> 05:29:39,040
landscape.
6505
05:29:37,200 --> 05:29:41,520
According to official Amsterdam
6506
05:29:39,040 --> 05:29:44,000
regulations, the city must intervene
6507
05:29:41,520 --> 05:29:46,160
when private property interferes with
6508
05:29:44,000 --> 05:29:48,718
public efficiency.
6509
05:29:46,160 --> 05:29:51,680
Whether is an improperly parked bike
6510
05:29:48,718 --> 05:29:53,760
blocking an emergency exit or a wreck
6511
05:29:51,680 --> 05:29:56,000
that is no longer functional, the
6512
05:29:53,760 --> 05:29:59,840
municipality acts as the ultimate
6513
05:29:56,000 --> 05:30:02,638
enforcer of spatial order.
6514
05:29:59,840 --> 05:30:06,240
All seized bicycles are transported to a
6515
05:30:02,638 --> 05:30:08,480
central facility, the Fiat's depot. This
6516
05:30:06,240 --> 05:30:11,600
is a logistical powerhouse that manages
6517
05:30:08,480 --> 05:30:14,480
the city's lost capital. This isn't just
6518
05:30:11,600 --> 05:30:18,160
a pound. It's a sorting facility for the
6519
05:30:14,480 --> 05:30:20,160
city's metal metabolism, the retrieval.
6520
05:30:18,160 --> 05:30:24,240
Owners have around 6 weeks to claim
6521
05:30:20,160 --> 05:30:26,160
their bike for a fee, approximately €25.
6522
05:30:24,240 --> 05:30:28,480
This fee doesn't cover the full
6523
05:30:26,160 --> 05:30:31,760
operational cost, but it serves as a
6524
05:30:28,480 --> 05:30:34,160
user pays tax to discourage abandonment.
6525
05:30:31,760 --> 05:30:36,638
If your bicycle was removed from a city
6526
05:30:34,160 --> 05:30:38,638
parking facility, you will also pay
6527
05:30:36,638 --> 05:30:43,120
33.75
6528
05:30:38,638 --> 05:30:46,400
parking cost. The sorting only about 25%
6529
05:30:43,120 --> 05:30:49,280
of bikes are ever reclaimed. The rest
6530
05:30:46,400 --> 05:30:51,440
they are classified as waste or asset.
6531
05:30:49,280 --> 05:30:56,080
Here is where the circular economy
6532
05:30:51,440 --> 05:30:58,878
strategy 2020 to 2025 becomes tangible.
6533
05:30:56,080 --> 05:31:03,840
Amsterdam aims to reduce the use of new
6534
05:30:58,878 --> 05:31:07,200
raw materials by 50% by 2030. The Fiat's
6535
05:31:03,840 --> 05:31:08,718
depot doesn't just scrap everything.
6536
05:31:07,200 --> 05:31:10,958
Refurbishment.
6537
05:31:08,718 --> 05:31:13,760
Bikes in decent condition are sold to
6538
05:31:10,958 --> 05:31:16,240
social enterprises or secondhand shops.
6539
05:31:13,760 --> 05:31:18,320
They are recirculated into the economy
6540
05:31:16,240 --> 05:31:20,638
at a low price point, providing
6541
05:31:18,320 --> 05:31:22,480
affordable mobility for lowincome
6542
05:31:20,638 --> 05:31:24,080
residents.
6543
05:31:22,480 --> 05:31:26,400
Education.
6544
05:31:24,080 --> 05:31:29,120
Many are used in vocational training
6545
05:31:26,400 --> 05:31:31,760
programs, turning junk, into a teaching
6546
05:31:29,120 --> 05:31:34,718
tool for future mechanics. Raw
6547
05:31:31,760 --> 05:31:37,600
materials, the unsalvageable ones, are
6548
05:31:34,718 --> 05:31:40,798
sold as highquality scrap metal, feeding
6549
05:31:37,600 --> 05:31:42,718
back into the industrial cycle.
6550
05:31:40,798 --> 05:31:46,160
What we see here is a complete life
6551
05:31:42,718 --> 05:31:48,000
cycle management of a transport mode.
6552
05:31:46,160 --> 05:31:50,000
The biggest challenge for circular
6553
05:31:48,000 --> 05:31:52,718
cities is the lack of effective
6554
05:31:50,000 --> 05:31:54,878
governance mechanisms. Amsterdam
6555
05:31:52,718 --> 05:31:57,360
succeeds because it treats the bicycle
6556
05:31:54,878 --> 05:31:59,760
as a public utility. From the
6557
05:31:57,360 --> 05:32:02,320
multi-million euro investment under the
6558
05:31:59,760 --> 05:32:04,160
water to the scrap metal in the harbor,
6559
05:32:02,320 --> 05:32:08,920
the city manages the entire
6560
05:32:04,160 --> 05:32:08,920
cradletograve cycle of the bicycle.
6561
05:32:10,718 --> 05:32:15,280
Amsterdam is no longer just building
6562
05:32:12,878 --> 05:32:18,878
bike lanes. It is building a new
6563
05:32:15,280 --> 05:32:22,160
economic DNA. The city has set a target
6564
05:32:18,878 --> 05:32:27,558
that many economists call impossible to
6565
05:32:22,160 --> 05:32:27,558
be 100% circular by 2050.
6566
05:32:28,480 --> 05:32:34,000
This means that by midentury, every gram
6567
05:32:31,200 --> 05:32:36,558
of steel in a bicycle and every stone in
6568
05:32:34,000 --> 05:32:40,480
a bridge must stay within the economic
6569
05:32:36,558 --> 05:32:43,600
loop. The take, make, waste model will
6570
05:32:40,480 --> 05:32:46,480
be extinct. For Amsterdam, the bicycle
6571
05:32:43,600 --> 05:32:49,040
is the alpha product, the test case for
6572
05:32:46,480 --> 05:32:51,280
how a city can move, consume, and
6573
05:32:49,040 --> 05:32:52,958
recycle without depleting the planet's
6574
05:32:51,280 --> 05:32:56,160
capital.
6575
05:32:52,958 --> 05:32:58,400
To reach 100% circularity, the concept
6576
05:32:56,160 --> 05:33:01,680
of private ownership is being challenged
6577
05:32:58,400 --> 05:33:04,320
by a more efficient model, product as a
6578
05:33:01,680 --> 05:33:06,400
service. You don't buy the bike, you
6579
05:33:04,320 --> 05:33:08,240
rent the mobility.
6580
05:33:06,400 --> 05:33:09,920
So we talk a lot about ownership as a
6581
05:33:08,240 --> 05:33:12,878
service, but it's this idea of, you
6582
05:33:09,920 --> 05:33:15,280
know, something as a service. So in our
6583
05:33:12,878 --> 05:33:17,280
case, bike as a service. It's all of the
6584
05:33:15,280 --> 05:33:18,958
benefits of ownership, but none of the
6585
05:33:17,280 --> 05:33:20,958
drawbacks. So none of having to deal
6586
05:33:18,958 --> 05:33:22,558
with the maintenance or or any of the
6587
05:33:20,958 --> 05:33:23,520
things that come with actually owning
6588
05:33:22,558 --> 05:33:25,840
something.
6589
05:33:23,520 --> 05:33:28,798
>> Economically, this aligns the incentives
6590
05:33:25,840 --> 05:33:31,600
of the producer and the consumer. If the
6591
05:33:28,798 --> 05:33:34,320
bike breaks, it's the company's problem,
6592
05:33:31,600 --> 05:33:36,080
not yours. By centralizing all of that
6593
05:33:34,320 --> 05:33:37,600
maintenance, obviously we cut cost
6594
05:33:36,080 --> 05:33:40,320
significantly. We cut waste
6595
05:33:37,600 --> 05:33:42,718
significantly. Um but for the individual
6596
05:33:40,320 --> 05:33:44,480
user, um they have nothing to worry
6597
05:33:42,718 --> 05:33:46,080
about. You know, as a subscriber, you
6598
05:33:44,480 --> 05:33:48,000
get all of your maintenance. So we come
6599
05:33:46,080 --> 05:33:49,760
and do preventative maintenance. So
6600
05:33:48,000 --> 05:33:52,160
first of all, that obviously reduced the
6601
05:33:49,760 --> 05:33:54,320
cost um overall, not so much to the end
6602
05:33:52,160 --> 05:33:56,080
user, but the cost of the business. Um
6603
05:33:54,320 --> 05:33:58,718
that prevents breakdowns and things like
6604
05:33:56,080 --> 05:34:02,080
that. But in the end, if you think about
6605
05:33:58,718 --> 05:34:03,440
um the cost of time, the cost of effort,
6606
05:34:02,080 --> 05:34:05,200
um maybe you don't even know how to
6607
05:34:03,440 --> 05:34:06,798
maintain your own bike, um having a
6608
05:34:05,200 --> 05:34:08,878
service that does all of that for you is
6609
05:34:06,798 --> 05:34:11,600
just a a matter of convenience.
6610
05:34:08,878 --> 05:34:14,558
>> This forces manufacturers to design for
6611
05:34:11,600 --> 05:34:17,440
durability and modularity, the core
6612
05:34:14,558 --> 05:34:19,680
pillars of this circular economy. When
6613
05:34:17,440 --> 05:34:21,760
the city manages the flow and private
6614
05:34:19,680 --> 05:34:24,718
companies manage the maintenance, the
6615
05:34:21,760 --> 05:34:26,718
shadow economy of theft we saw in act
6616
05:34:24,718 --> 05:34:28,638
three begins to shrink.
6617
05:34:26,718 --> 05:34:30,160
>> So if you subscribe to a bike from
6618
05:34:28,638 --> 05:34:31,840
Clover and your bike gets stolen, first
6619
05:34:30,160 --> 05:34:33,840
of all, we actually probably will notice
6620
05:34:31,840 --> 05:34:36,240
that it got stolen maybe even before you
6621
05:34:33,840 --> 05:34:38,480
did because we have GPS on all the
6622
05:34:36,240 --> 05:34:40,718
bikes. Um, but if it does get stolen,
6623
05:34:38,480 --> 05:34:42,160
you use our WhatsApp chat. You basically
6624
05:34:40,718 --> 05:34:44,798
send us a message and we come and bring
6625
05:34:42,160 --> 05:34:47,200
you a new bike immediately. Why steal a
6626
05:34:44,798 --> 05:34:49,840
bike that is tracked, branded, and has
6627
05:34:47,200 --> 05:34:52,240
no resale value in a subscription-based
6628
05:34:49,840 --> 05:34:54,000
market?
6629
05:34:52,240 --> 05:34:56,480
So, what is the final return on
6630
05:34:54,000 --> 05:35:00,240
investment? Let's look at the triple
6631
05:34:56,480 --> 05:35:02,638
bottom line. Public health. By avoiding
6632
05:35:00,240 --> 05:35:05,280
11,000 deaths annually through active
6633
05:35:02,638 --> 05:35:08,958
transport, the Dutch economy saves 19
6634
05:35:05,280 --> 05:35:12,240
billion in health care costs.
6635
05:35:08,958 --> 05:35:14,878
urban density. By utilizing underwater
6636
05:35:12,240 --> 05:35:17,200
parking and vertical depots, Amsterdam
6637
05:35:14,878 --> 05:35:19,520
maintains a population density that
6638
05:35:17,200 --> 05:35:23,200
would be impossible with cars, keeping
6639
05:35:19,520 --> 05:35:25,920
real estate productivity at peak levels.
6640
05:35:23,200 --> 05:35:28,480
Resource independence by reclaiming
6641
05:35:25,920 --> 05:35:31,120
metal from the Fiats depot. The city
6642
05:35:28,480 --> 05:35:33,840
insulates itself from global commodity
6643
05:35:31,120 --> 05:35:37,040
price shocks. This is a sustainable
6644
05:35:33,840 --> 05:35:39,280
urban metabolism. The city isn't just a
6645
05:35:37,040 --> 05:35:41,840
place where people live. It's a living
6646
05:35:39,280 --> 05:35:44,240
organism that processes resources with
6647
05:35:41,840 --> 05:35:46,480
maximum efficiency.
6648
05:35:44,240 --> 05:35:48,878
Amsterdam's success has sent a clear
6649
05:35:46,480 --> 05:35:51,120
message to the rest of the continent.
6650
05:35:48,878 --> 05:35:54,000
Spatial efficiency is the only way
6651
05:35:51,120 --> 05:35:56,400
forward for the modern metropolis.
6652
05:35:54,000 --> 05:35:58,400
Across Europe, the bicycle has moved
6653
05:35:56,400 --> 05:36:00,558
from being a leisure tool to a
6654
05:35:58,400 --> 05:36:02,798
cornerstone of urban recovery and
6655
05:36:00,558 --> 05:36:05,440
economic resilience.
6656
05:36:02,798 --> 05:36:08,480
In Paris, a city once defined by its
6657
05:36:05,440 --> 05:36:11,120
congestion, the plano is investing
6658
05:36:08,480 --> 05:36:14,558
hundreds of millions to become 100%
6659
05:36:11,120 --> 05:36:16,878
cyclable. In Barcelona, the super blocks
6660
05:36:14,558 --> 05:36:21,200
are reclaiming entire intersections from
6661
05:36:16,878 --> 05:36:22,878
cars to create humanentric lungs.
6662
05:36:21,200 --> 05:36:26,400
These aren't just environmental
6663
05:36:22,878 --> 05:36:28,878
projects, they are market corrections.
6664
05:36:26,400 --> 05:36:31,360
The cities are betting that a quieter,
6665
05:36:28,878 --> 05:36:33,760
cleaner, and more agile urban center
6666
05:36:31,360 --> 05:36:36,638
will attract more talent, more tourism,
6667
05:36:33,760 --> 05:36:39,280
and higher property values.
6668
05:36:36,638 --> 05:36:41,760
From the cycle superighways of London to
6669
05:36:39,280 --> 05:36:44,798
the industrial hubs of Germany, the
6670
05:36:41,760 --> 05:36:48,080
economic logic is consistent. Replacing
6671
05:36:44,798 --> 05:36:50,558
a 1 and 1/2 ton vehicle with a 15 kg
6672
05:36:48,080 --> 05:36:52,480
machine reduces the cost of maintenance
6673
05:36:50,558 --> 05:36:55,360
for the city and increases the
6674
05:36:52,480 --> 05:36:57,520
productivity of the citizen.
6675
05:36:55,360 --> 05:36:59,760
But while northern capitals have the
6676
05:36:57,520 --> 05:37:02,558
advantage of decades of infrastructure,
6677
05:36:59,760 --> 05:37:04,638
the real test is happening in the south.
6678
05:37:02,558 --> 05:37:06,798
In the Mediterranean, where the streets
6679
05:37:04,638 --> 05:37:09,120
is a social space and the sun is a
6680
05:37:06,798 --> 05:37:11,760
constant resource, a new leader is
6681
05:37:09,120 --> 05:37:14,240
emerging. A city that has used the
6682
05:37:11,760 --> 05:37:18,040
Amsterdam blueprint to transform itself
6683
05:37:14,240 --> 05:37:18,040
at record speed.
6684
05:37:30,000 --> 05:37:33,000
forgo.
6685
05:38:21,120 --> 05:38:27,240
If Amsterdam is the blueprint, Valencia
6686
05:38:23,760 --> 05:38:27,240
is the laboratory.
6687
05:38:28,320 --> 05:38:31,320
Okay.
6688
05:38:49,360 --> 05:38:52,680
I could just
6689
05:39:08,000 --> 05:39:10,240
start
6690
05:39:10,958 --> 05:39:15,200
In less than a decade, this
6691
05:39:12,638 --> 05:39:17,600
Mediterranean city has transitioned from
6692
05:39:15,200 --> 05:39:21,718
a carcentric capital to a global
6693
05:39:17,600 --> 05:39:21,718
reference in urban metabolism.
6694
05:39:43,360 --> 05:39:49,040
Valencia's transformation wasn't a
6695
05:39:45,760 --> 05:39:51,120
matter of vibes or romanticism. It was a
6696
05:39:49,040 --> 05:39:52,718
calculated investment in spatial
6697
05:39:51,120 --> 05:39:54,958
efficiency.
6698
05:39:52,718 --> 05:39:56,558
>> I think attracting top global talent
6699
05:39:54,958 --> 05:39:58,400
means that you need to have a vibrant,
6700
05:39:56,558 --> 05:40:00,400
livable city. And I think most young
6701
05:39:58,400 --> 05:40:02,558
people um particularly who are coming
6702
05:40:00,400 --> 05:40:04,638
into the workforce now are looking for
6703
05:40:02,558 --> 05:40:07,120
ways to get around a city that doesn't
6704
05:40:04,638 --> 05:40:09,680
rely on public transit. They don't want
6705
05:40:07,120 --> 05:40:11,680
to own a car um because car ownership is
6706
05:40:09,680 --> 05:40:13,920
a total burden. Having to find parking,
6707
05:40:11,680 --> 05:40:15,440
insurance, cost of the car, all of that.
6708
05:40:13,920 --> 05:40:17,680
So having this accessible
6709
05:40:15,440 --> 05:40:20,080
infrastructure, cycling infrastructure
6710
05:40:17,680 --> 05:40:21,760
specifically and in a city like Valencia
6711
05:40:20,080 --> 05:40:23,920
that you know already has a lot of
6712
05:40:21,760 --> 05:40:26,718
reasons to attract top talent just makes
6713
05:40:23,920 --> 05:40:28,480
it that much better. Um, cycling is a
6714
05:40:26,718 --> 05:40:29,760
preferred way to get around in Valencia.
6715
05:40:28,480 --> 05:40:32,000
We're number seven in the world for
6716
05:40:29,760 --> 05:40:34,400
cycling to work, for example. So, adding
6717
05:40:32,000 --> 05:40:36,798
a layer of an easy subscription ebike
6718
05:40:34,400 --> 05:40:39,840
service to that just again attracts even
6719
05:40:36,798 --> 05:40:42,878
more um top talent to the city.
6720
05:40:39,840 --> 05:40:44,958
>> By implementing the Anilo Crista, the
6721
05:40:42,878 --> 05:40:47,760
city has reclaimed high value public
6722
05:40:44,958 --> 05:40:50,240
space to boost local commerce and reduce
6723
05:40:47,760 --> 05:40:52,160
the toxic liability of the car. It's
6724
05:40:50,240 --> 05:40:53,920
important to remember that um often
6725
05:40:52,160 --> 05:40:55,600
times with cars, although they can fit
6726
05:40:53,920 --> 05:40:57,600
multiple people, most of the time it's
6727
05:40:55,600 --> 05:40:59,360
one person per one car. So when we're
6728
05:40:57,600 --> 05:41:01,280
asking about, you know, 10 bikes versus
6729
05:40:59,360 --> 05:41:03,520
one car, we're essentially saying 10
6730
05:41:01,280 --> 05:41:05,280
people versus one person. So we have a
6731
05:41:03,520 --> 05:41:06,798
10x multiplier on essentially everything
6732
05:41:05,280 --> 05:41:08,160
that's happening on that street, whether
6733
05:41:06,798 --> 05:41:09,920
that be visits and businesses, whether
6734
05:41:08,160 --> 05:41:11,440
that be transactions and purchases.
6735
05:41:09,920 --> 05:41:13,360
Everything gets that 10x multiplier and
6736
05:41:11,440 --> 05:41:15,760
increases revenue for the whole street.
6737
05:41:13,360 --> 05:41:18,240
In economics, this is the optimization
6738
05:41:15,760 --> 05:41:20,480
of land use. the same principle that
6739
05:41:18,240 --> 05:41:21,360
drove Amsterdam to build under its
6740
05:41:20,480 --> 05:41:23,120
canals.
6741
05:41:21,360 --> 05:41:25,920
>> If I'm cycling and I pass by, for
6742
05:41:23,120 --> 05:41:27,200
example, a bakery, I go, I smell that
6743
05:41:25,920 --> 05:41:28,798
bakery and I go, "Oh, you know what?
6744
05:41:27,200 --> 05:41:30,878
Maybe I'm going to stop in try something
6745
05:41:28,798 --> 05:41:32,000
one of those products." Um, you know,
6746
05:41:30,878 --> 05:41:33,280
essentially become a patron of that
6747
05:41:32,000 --> 05:41:34,638
business. Whereas, if I'm passing by in
6748
05:41:33,280 --> 05:41:37,200
a car, there's no chance of that
6749
05:41:34,638 --> 05:41:38,878
happening. And the other benefit is um
6750
05:41:37,200 --> 05:41:40,718
car parking also has this sort of
6751
05:41:38,878 --> 05:41:42,400
psychological effect on the streets and
6752
05:41:40,718 --> 05:41:44,080
the people that live there. Car parking
6753
05:41:42,400 --> 05:41:46,160
makes the space feel a lot more closed
6754
05:41:44,080 --> 05:41:47,600
in and a lot more cramped than bike
6755
05:41:46,160 --> 05:41:48,798
parking, which keeps the space very nice
6756
05:41:47,600 --> 05:41:50,718
and open.
6757
05:41:48,798 --> 05:41:53,600
>> Emerging businesses are shifting the
6758
05:41:50,718 --> 05:41:55,840
market from ownership to usership.
6759
05:41:53,600 --> 05:41:57,440
>> You know, our customers, they depend on
6760
05:41:55,840 --> 05:41:59,840
their bikes as a reliable way to get
6761
05:41:57,440 --> 05:42:02,320
around. And so, we use an ownership as a
6762
05:41:59,840 --> 05:42:04,638
service model. So, instead of owning the
6763
05:42:02,320 --> 05:42:06,400
asset yourself, um, you subscribe to it
6764
05:42:04,638 --> 05:42:08,160
from us. And we think that's what
6765
05:42:06,400 --> 05:42:10,000
customers need in terms of reliable
6766
05:42:08,160 --> 05:42:12,638
day-to-day transportation. If you look
6767
05:42:10,000 --> 05:42:15,280
at something like Lime or Valon BC, they
6768
05:42:12,638 --> 05:42:17,680
will have that idle asset problem. Um,
6769
05:42:15,280 --> 05:42:19,520
and certainly ownership obviously the
6770
05:42:17,680 --> 05:42:21,920
same thing. But with us, you know,
6771
05:42:19,520 --> 05:42:23,760
handling maintenance, battery swapping,
6772
05:42:21,920 --> 05:42:26,080
theft protection, insurance, all of
6773
05:42:23,760 --> 05:42:27,920
that. Um, and yet still having access to
6774
05:42:26,080 --> 05:42:28,480
the bike anytime you want. It's your
6775
05:42:27,920 --> 05:42:31,360
bike.
6776
05:42:28,480 --> 05:42:33,520
>> Subscription models like swaps, which
6777
05:42:31,360 --> 05:42:36,080
already dominate the Dutch market, are
6778
05:42:33,520 --> 05:42:38,400
landing in Valencia. These companies
6779
05:42:36,080 --> 05:42:40,320
treat the bike as a service, covering
6780
05:42:38,400 --> 05:42:41,440
all maintenance and repairs for a
6781
05:42:40,320 --> 05:42:43,120
monthly fee.
6782
05:42:41,440 --> 05:42:45,280
>> Ownership isn't necessarily a bad
6783
05:42:43,120 --> 05:42:46,958
investment, but I think um most
6784
05:42:45,280 --> 05:42:48,320
consumers are moving away from owning
6785
05:42:46,958 --> 05:42:50,160
things. You know, people are leasing
6786
05:42:48,320 --> 05:42:52,798
their cars, people are, you know, more
6787
05:42:50,160 --> 05:42:54,638
and more renting their homes. Um so for
6788
05:42:52,798 --> 05:42:56,878
us, a subscription model made sense.
6789
05:42:54,638 --> 05:42:59,120
That and affordability. This eliminates
6790
05:42:56,878 --> 05:43:02,080
the fear of theft and long-term
6791
05:42:59,120 --> 05:43:04,320
depreciation, turning the bicycle into a
6792
05:43:02,080 --> 05:43:07,600
predictable low- friction utility for
6793
05:43:04,320 --> 05:43:10,558
the modern worker. The impact extends to
6794
05:43:07,600 --> 05:43:12,558
logistics. In Valencia's historic
6795
05:43:10,558 --> 05:43:14,878
center, where large trucks are
6796
05:43:12,558 --> 05:43:17,440
increasingly restricted, last mile
6797
05:43:14,878 --> 05:43:19,840
delivery by cargo bike is becoming the
6798
05:43:17,440 --> 05:43:22,878
gold standard for efficiency. We are
6799
05:43:19,840 --> 05:43:25,120
witnessing the birth of microhubs, small
6800
05:43:22,878 --> 05:43:27,760
urban distribution centers that allow
6801
05:43:25,120 --> 05:43:30,718
for zero emission high-speed delivery in
6802
05:43:27,760 --> 05:43:32,958
highdensity zones. From the massive
6803
05:43:30,718 --> 05:43:34,958
underwater investments in Amsterdam to
6804
05:43:32,958 --> 05:43:38,240
the emerging subscription models in
6805
05:43:34,958 --> 05:43:41,200
Valencia, the message is clear. The
6806
05:43:38,240 --> 05:43:43,680
bicycle is no longer just a hobby. It is
6807
05:43:41,200 --> 05:43:45,520
a financial instrument and a spatial
6808
05:43:43,680 --> 05:43:46,638
optimizer.
6809
05:43:45,520 --> 05:43:49,040
You know, when we were speaking to
6810
05:43:46,638 --> 05:43:51,360
consumers about how we could get them to
6811
05:43:49,040 --> 05:43:53,280
switch from a car to an ebike, it was
6812
05:43:51,360 --> 05:43:55,520
all about convenience. So, it was about
6813
05:43:53,280 --> 05:43:57,520
this idea that, you know, with a car,
6814
05:43:55,520 --> 05:43:59,200
you can go point A to point B whenever
6815
05:43:57,520 --> 05:44:01,360
you want. You're not relying on public
6816
05:43:59,200 --> 05:44:03,360
transit or any of those things. But if
6817
05:44:01,360 --> 05:44:05,120
you need gas, you go to a gas station,
6818
05:44:03,360 --> 05:44:07,440
it takes 5 minutes, and you're back on
6819
05:44:05,120 --> 05:44:09,280
your way. People perceived ebikes as
6820
05:44:07,440 --> 05:44:10,718
inconvenient because, oh, what if I
6821
05:44:09,280 --> 05:44:12,878
forget to charge the battery? Then it's
6822
05:44:10,718 --> 05:44:15,040
just kind of a very heavy paper weight.
6823
05:44:12,878 --> 05:44:16,718
Um, but if we eliminate that need for
6824
05:44:15,040 --> 05:44:19,200
charging and people can just come and
6825
05:44:16,718 --> 05:44:21,200
collect a charge battery anytime, um, it
6826
05:44:19,200 --> 05:44:23,920
helps break that barrier to entry for
6827
05:44:21,200 --> 05:44:26,000
getting out of a car. By integrating
6828
05:44:23,920 --> 05:44:28,558
these new business models with public
6829
05:44:26,000 --> 05:44:31,520
planning, Valencia is securing its place
6830
05:44:28,558 --> 05:44:34,240
in the 21st century economy. Proving
6831
05:44:31,520 --> 05:44:37,680
that a dense functional city isn't just
6832
05:44:34,240 --> 05:44:39,520
a choice, it's a competitive necessity.
6833
05:44:37,680 --> 05:44:41,600
>> Ultimately, private car ownership is
6834
05:44:39,520 --> 05:44:43,120
going to become obsolete. Cities are
6835
05:44:41,600 --> 05:44:44,798
building for pedestrians. They're
6836
05:44:43,120 --> 05:44:47,360
building for cycling. They're building
6837
05:44:44,798 --> 05:44:49,360
for livability, not for cars.
6838
05:44:47,360 --> 05:44:51,520
>> Throughout this documentary, we have
6839
05:44:49,360 --> 05:44:54,558
seen the gears of a massive economic
6840
05:44:51,520 --> 05:44:57,440
machine. But there is a final myth we
6841
05:44:54,558 --> 05:44:59,920
must dismantle. The idea that cities
6842
05:44:57,440 --> 05:45:02,320
like Amsterdam or Valencia look like
6843
05:44:59,920 --> 05:45:04,878
this because their citizens are simply
6844
05:45:02,320 --> 05:45:08,638
different. History tells a different
6845
05:45:04,878 --> 05:45:10,558
story. In the 1970s, Amsterdam was on
6846
05:45:08,638 --> 05:45:13,440
the verge of becoming another car
6847
05:45:10,558 --> 05:45:16,240
ccentric congested metropolis. The
6848
05:45:13,440 --> 05:45:19,040
transition we see today wasn't a natural
6849
05:45:16,240 --> 05:45:21,760
evolution of culture. It was a hostile
6850
05:45:19,040 --> 05:45:24,638
takeover of urban space by policy and
6851
05:45:21,760 --> 05:45:27,440
planning. When a city reaches a certain
6852
05:45:24,638 --> 05:45:30,320
density, freedom of choice in transport
6853
05:45:27,440 --> 05:45:33,840
becomes a mathematical impossibility.
6854
05:45:30,320 --> 05:45:36,320
If everyone chooses a car, no one moves.
6855
05:45:33,840 --> 05:45:39,280
In this highstakes environment, planning
6856
05:45:36,320 --> 05:45:42,000
is not an option. It is the only way to
6857
05:45:39,280 --> 05:45:46,160
survive. What is the ultimate harvest of
6858
05:45:42,000 --> 05:45:48,558
this planning? It is the 3% GDP boost we
6859
05:45:46,160 --> 05:45:50,798
mentioned at the start. But it's also
6860
05:45:48,558 --> 05:45:54,000
found in the margins,
6861
05:45:50,798 --> 05:45:55,840
the fiscal savings by avoiding the need
6862
05:45:54,000 --> 05:45:58,320
for multi-billion euro highway
6863
05:45:55,840 --> 05:46:01,280
expansions and massive health care costs
6864
05:45:58,320 --> 05:46:04,320
related to sedentary lifestyles.
6865
05:46:01,280 --> 05:46:06,638
The resilience factor by creating a
6866
05:46:04,320 --> 05:46:09,440
circular metropolis that can process its
6867
05:46:06,638 --> 05:46:11,440
own waste at the Kruu depot and turn it
6868
05:46:09,440 --> 05:46:14,558
back into capital.
6869
05:46:11,440 --> 05:46:16,718
The talent magnet in the global war for
6870
05:46:14,558 --> 05:46:20,000
talent. Highly skilled workers choose
6871
05:46:16,718 --> 05:46:22,320
cities based on livability. Amsterdam's
6872
05:46:20,000 --> 05:46:24,958
bicycle infrastructure is its most
6873
05:46:22,320 --> 05:46:26,718
effective recruitment tool. We started
6874
05:46:24,958 --> 05:46:30,000
this journey looking at a simple
6875
05:46:26,718 --> 05:46:32,558
machine, two wheels and a frame. But as
6876
05:46:30,000 --> 05:46:35,520
we've seen, the bicycle in Amsterdam is
6877
05:46:32,558 --> 05:46:38,160
much more than a transport mode. It is a
6878
05:46:35,520 --> 05:46:41,120
financial instrument. It is a spatial
6879
05:46:38,160 --> 05:46:44,080
optimizer. It is the invisible engine
6880
05:46:41,120 --> 05:46:48,000
that allows a medieval city to function
6881
05:46:44,080 --> 05:46:51,040
as a 21st century economic powerhouse.
6882
05:46:48,000 --> 05:46:53,440
The €85 million spent on underwater
6883
05:46:51,040 --> 05:46:56,480
tunnels, the complex logistics of the
6884
05:46:53,440 --> 05:46:59,680
Kruius depot, or the new Mediterranean
6885
05:46:56,480 --> 05:47:02,958
bike lanes are not costs. They are
6886
05:46:59,680 --> 05:47:05,440
investments in resilience.
6887
05:47:02,958 --> 05:47:07,680
In a world of rising energy prices and
6888
05:47:05,440 --> 05:47:10,718
shrinking urban space, the Amsterdam
6889
05:47:07,680 --> 05:47:12,878
model offers a glimpse into the future.
6890
05:47:10,718 --> 05:47:15,600
It proves that the most sophisticated
6891
05:47:12,878 --> 05:47:18,400
technology isn't always a new gadget.
6892
05:47:15,600 --> 05:47:21,680
Sometimes it's the perfect integration
6893
05:47:18,400 --> 05:47:24,680
of an old idea into a new circular
6894
05:47:21,680 --> 05:47:24,680
world.
6895
05:48:40,000 --> 05:48:43,840
imagine for a moment, what if your
6896
05:48:42,000 --> 05:48:45,840
Bitcoin holdings could purchase more
6897
05:48:43,840 --> 05:48:48,400
than just everyday items like coffee or
6898
05:48:45,840 --> 05:48:50,400
the latest gadgets? What if that digital
6899
05:48:48,400 --> 05:48:52,958
currency sitting in your wallet could
6900
05:48:50,400 --> 05:48:54,958
actually buy you a house or perhaps even
6901
05:48:52,958 --> 05:48:57,958
an entire commercial building? real
6902
05:48:54,958 --> 05:48:57,958
estate.
6903
05:49:02,718 --> 05:49:05,718
Bitcoin.
6904
05:49:07,600 --> 05:49:11,680
Welcome to the fascinating and rapidly
6905
05:49:09,600 --> 05:49:13,440
evolving world of crypto real estate,
6906
05:49:11,680 --> 05:49:18,040
where digital assets are being
6907
05:49:13,440 --> 05:49:18,040
transformed into tangible property.
6908
05:49:21,920 --> 05:49:25,120
Today, we're taking a deep dive into the
6909
05:49:23,920 --> 05:49:27,120
revolutionary intersection of
6910
05:49:25,120 --> 05:49:29,680
cryptocurrency and property ownership,
6911
05:49:27,120 --> 05:49:31,920
examining in detail how Bitcoin is
6912
05:49:29,680 --> 05:49:33,840
successfully transforming what were once
6913
05:49:31,920 --> 05:49:36,000
purely digital coins into tangible
6914
05:49:33,840 --> 05:49:37,600
physical real estate investments.
6915
05:49:36,000 --> 05:49:39,600
Whether you're an experienced crypto
6916
05:49:37,600 --> 05:49:41,520
investor looking to diversify your
6917
05:49:39,600 --> 05:49:43,120
portfolio or simply someone who's
6918
05:49:41,520 --> 05:49:45,360
curious about emerging trends in
6919
05:49:43,120 --> 05:49:47,280
property markets, this is an in-depth
6920
05:49:45,360 --> 05:49:48,878
look at how the landscape and future of
6921
05:49:47,280 --> 05:49:50,958
real estate transactions is
6922
05:49:48,878 --> 05:49:53,600
fundamentally evolving and changing
6923
05:49:50,958 --> 05:49:55,600
before our eyes.
6924
05:49:53,600 --> 05:49:57,520
The financial world is in constant
6925
05:49:55,600 --> 05:49:59,600
transformation, but in this decade,
6926
05:49:57,520 --> 05:50:02,958
digitalization has accelerated that
6927
05:49:59,600 --> 05:50:05,840
change faster than anyone imagined.
6928
05:50:02,958 --> 05:50:08,000
Today, money, investments, and assets
6929
05:50:05,840 --> 05:50:10,718
flow through codes silent, transparent,
6930
05:50:08,000 --> 05:50:13,520
and borderless. Cryptocurrencies led by
6931
05:50:10,718 --> 05:50:15,520
Bitcoin mark the beginning of a new era.
6932
05:50:13,520 --> 05:50:17,280
They shook the foundations of the global
6933
05:50:15,520 --> 05:50:20,080
financial system, sparking both
6934
05:50:17,280 --> 05:50:22,798
excitement and skepticism. Yet, behind
6935
05:50:20,080 --> 05:50:27,000
that phenomenon emerged something even
6936
05:50:22,798 --> 05:50:27,000
deeper. Tokenization.
6937
05:50:29,120 --> 05:50:32,120
Contraos.
6938
05:50:47,920 --> 05:50:51,480
Real world assets.
6939
05:51:11,600 --> 05:51:13,760
Moment.
6940
05:51:23,840 --> 05:51:27,840
tokenization brings. So it's the most
6941
05:51:25,360 --> 05:51:29,440
suitable, most modern ledger technology
6942
05:51:27,840 --> 05:51:30,160
uh ideal for modernizing capital
6943
05:51:29,440 --> 05:51:33,360
markets.
6944
05:51:30,160 --> 05:51:35,360
>> The idea is simple, the impact enormous.
6945
05:51:33,360 --> 05:51:38,000
Each token represents a fraction of an
6946
05:51:35,360 --> 05:51:40,000
asset, a share, a bond, a property, or
6947
05:51:38,000 --> 05:51:42,080
even a work of art. All recorded on a
6948
05:51:40,000 --> 05:51:45,080
blockchain, a global tamper proof
6949
05:51:42,080 --> 05:51:45,080
ledger.
6950
05:52:02,240 --> 05:52:05,638
Smart contracts.
6951
05:52:19,920 --> 05:52:23,920
We believe the next step going forward
6952
05:52:21,760 --> 05:52:27,600
will be the tokenization of financial
6953
05:52:23,920 --> 05:52:29,840
assets. And that means every stock,
6954
05:52:27,600 --> 05:52:32,638
every bond will have its own basically
6955
05:52:29,840 --> 05:52:35,120
QIP. It'll be on one general ledger.
6956
05:52:32,638 --> 05:52:37,600
>> In other words, a token isn't just an
6957
05:52:35,120 --> 05:52:39,920
asset. It's a digital entry in a new
6958
05:52:37,600 --> 05:52:42,240
kind of ledger that is rewriting how
6959
05:52:39,920 --> 05:52:44,480
capital markets keep their books.
6960
05:52:42,240 --> 05:52:46,000
Investment in tokenized real estates
6961
05:52:44,480 --> 05:52:48,240
represents one of the most recent
6962
05:52:46,000 --> 05:52:50,480
advancements in the property industry.
6963
05:52:48,240 --> 05:52:52,958
Tokenization enables houses and
6964
05:52:50,480 --> 05:52:57,000
apartments to be divided and sold and
6965
05:52:52,958 --> 05:52:57,000
numerous smaller units.
6966
05:53:06,240 --> 05:53:09,240
Fractional
6967
05:53:43,360 --> 05:53:47,760
small programs act like a bridge between
6968
05:53:45,200 --> 05:53:49,520
a property and online trading platform.
6969
05:53:47,760 --> 05:53:50,958
Hence, tokens create a digital
6970
05:53:49,520 --> 05:53:55,320
representation of a property,
6971
05:53:50,958 --> 05:53:55,320
facilitating its digital transfer.
6972
05:53:56,798 --> 05:54:00,718
The process of purchasing a property is
6973
05:53:58,958 --> 05:54:03,120
still associated with significant
6974
05:54:00,718 --> 05:54:05,520
bureaucracy, lengthy procedures, and
6975
05:54:03,120 --> 05:54:08,878
subsequent high costs.
6976
05:54:05,520 --> 05:54:11,280
So what exactly is crypto real estate?
6977
05:54:08,878 --> 05:54:13,600
At its core, the term refers to any real
6978
05:54:11,280 --> 05:54:16,400
estate transaction where cryptocurrency
6979
05:54:13,600 --> 05:54:18,878
plays a major role either as a direct
6980
05:54:16,400 --> 05:54:23,160
form of payment, a converted asset, or
6981
05:54:18,878 --> 05:54:23,160
collateral for purchasing property.
6982
05:54:26,160 --> 05:54:29,320
real estate,
6983
05:54:30,638 --> 05:54:33,638
Bitcoins.
6984
05:54:50,558 --> 05:54:54,760
Crypto reference loans.
6985
05:55:14,400 --> 05:55:19,360
But the concept goes even deeper than
6986
05:55:17,120 --> 05:55:21,360
that. Crypto real estate includes buying
6987
05:55:19,360 --> 05:55:23,440
a home directly with Bitcoin or other
6988
05:55:21,360 --> 05:55:26,558
cryptocurrencies, using stable coins
6989
05:55:23,440 --> 05:55:29,520
like USDT or USDC for a more stable
6990
05:55:26,558 --> 05:55:31,360
purchase, converting crypto into fiat at
6991
05:55:29,520 --> 05:55:32,878
closing, taking out loans backed by
6992
05:55:31,360 --> 05:55:34,558
cryptocurrency to purchase real
6993
05:55:32,878 --> 05:55:36,558
property, tokenized real estate where
6994
05:55:34,558 --> 05:55:38,160
ownership is fractionalized into digital
6995
05:55:36,558 --> 05:55:39,840
token, blockchain based property
6996
05:55:38,160 --> 05:55:42,840
records, and smart contract driven
6997
05:55:39,840 --> 05:55:42,840
transactions.
6998
05:55:54,958 --> 05:55:58,360
Stable coins,
6999
05:56:11,600 --> 05:56:15,000
stable coins.
7000
05:56:23,760 --> 05:56:28,920
EMT. E A R
7001
05:56:29,280 --> 05:56:32,280
Eas
7002
05:56:35,280 --> 05:56:38,280
t
7003
05:56:38,558 --> 05:56:41,558
USDT
7004
05:56:45,360 --> 05:56:48,360
USDC
7005
05:57:00,798 --> 05:57:03,798
US
7006
05:57:08,080 --> 05:57:11,558
stable coinry.
7007
05:57:44,718 --> 05:57:47,718
Fiat
7008
05:57:48,480 --> 05:57:51,480
laser.
7009
05:57:52,240 --> 05:57:57,718
For example,
7010
05:57:54,718 --> 05:57:57,718
coins.
7011
05:58:03,840 --> 05:58:08,160
It's an evolution in how value moves
7012
05:58:06,000 --> 05:58:10,320
around the world. And for the first
7013
05:58:08,160 --> 05:58:14,760
time, digital wealth is becoming a
7014
05:58:10,320 --> 05:58:14,760
direct pathway to physical ownership.
7015
05:58:16,400 --> 05:58:20,160
To understand how we arrived at this
7016
05:58:18,320 --> 05:58:22,718
moment, we need to step back and look at
7017
05:58:20,160 --> 05:58:24,798
the timeline. Bitcoin launched in 2009
7018
05:58:22,718 --> 05:58:26,718
as a peer-to-peer digital alternative to
7019
05:58:24,798 --> 05:58:28,480
money. In its early years, the idea of
7020
05:58:26,718 --> 05:58:30,878
using Bitcoin to buy real estate was
7021
05:58:28,480 --> 05:58:33,120
laughable. But Bitcoin grew, first
7022
05:58:30,878 --> 05:58:35,600
crossing $1, then a hundred, then a
7023
05:58:33,120 --> 05:58:38,240
thousand, then tens of thousands. A new
7024
05:58:35,600 --> 05:58:40,240
wave of wealth was created. Suddenly,
7025
05:58:38,240 --> 05:58:42,400
early adopters who once bought pizza
7026
05:58:40,240 --> 05:58:45,440
with Bitcoin now had enough digital
7027
05:58:42,400 --> 05:58:47,760
value to buy entire homes, and sellers
7028
05:58:45,440 --> 05:58:49,840
began paying attention. The first public
7029
05:58:47,760 --> 05:58:52,958
record of a property purchased fully in
7030
05:58:49,840 --> 05:58:55,120
Bitcoin dates back to 2017. From there,
7031
05:58:52,958 --> 05:58:57,680
the trend spread to luxury markets,
7032
05:58:55,120 --> 05:59:00,080
Miami, Los Angeles, New York, Dubai, and
7033
05:58:57,680 --> 05:59:01,840
London. Developers began marketing
7034
05:59:00,080 --> 05:59:04,638
properties specifically to crypto
7035
05:59:01,840 --> 05:59:07,520
buyers. Brokers started specializing in
7036
05:59:04,638 --> 05:59:09,040
crypto transactions. Escrow companies
7037
05:59:07,520 --> 05:59:10,798
adapted.
7038
05:59:09,040 --> 05:59:14,160
Even governments began studying
7039
05:59:10,798 --> 05:59:16,718
blockchainbased property registries.
7040
05:59:14,160 --> 05:59:19,200
Buying real estate with Bitcoin isn't
7041
05:59:16,718 --> 05:59:21,120
science fiction. Some sellers now accept
7042
05:59:19,200 --> 05:59:23,040
crypto directly, while others work
7043
05:59:21,120 --> 05:59:26,240
through brokers who convert Bitcoin into
7044
05:59:23,040 --> 05:59:28,400
local currency. The process is faster,
7045
05:59:26,240 --> 05:59:30,718
borderless, and sometimes even tax
7046
05:59:28,400 --> 05:59:33,120
efficient if you know the rules. Things
7047
05:59:30,718 --> 05:59:36,558
that sounded impossible in 2010 became
7048
05:59:33,120 --> 05:59:38,798
normal by 2020. And now in the 2020s,
7049
05:59:36,558 --> 05:59:41,200
cryptocurrency is becoming a serious
7050
05:59:38,798 --> 05:59:43,120
player in global real estate. The crypto
7051
05:59:41,200 --> 05:59:45,360
boom has created a new class of
7052
05:59:43,120 --> 05:59:47,920
investors. High- netw worth individuals
7053
05:59:45,360 --> 05:59:50,558
want to diversify, and real estate is a
7054
05:59:47,920 --> 05:59:53,440
safe, tangible asset. From luxury homes
7055
05:59:50,558 --> 05:59:55,760
in Miami to condos in Dubai, Bitcoin
7056
05:59:53,440 --> 05:59:57,680
buyers are making their mark. Let's look
7057
05:59:55,760 --> 05:59:59,520
at a few real world examples to
7058
05:59:57,680 --> 06:00:03,200
understand how crypto real estate works
7059
05:59:59,520 --> 06:00:05,680
in practice. Case study one. In 2021, a
7060
06:00:03,200 --> 06:00:08,160
luxury penthouse at Artee by Antonio
7061
06:00:05,680 --> 06:00:11,680
Satario in Surfside, Florida made
7062
06:00:08,160 --> 06:00:14,638
history. The property sold for 22.5
7063
06:00:11,680 --> 06:00:16,718
million paid entirely in cryptocurrency.
7064
06:00:14,638 --> 06:00:18,878
The largest publicly known real estate
7065
06:00:16,718 --> 06:00:21,120
transaction completed using digital
7066
06:00:18,878 --> 06:00:23,120
assets at the time. A developer's
7067
06:00:21,120 --> 06:00:25,680
decision to accept cryptocurrency had
7068
06:00:23,120 --> 06:00:27,600
paid off. The sale came just weeks after
7069
06:00:25,680 --> 06:00:29,440
the developer announced it would begin
7070
06:00:27,600 --> 06:00:31,040
accepting cryptocurrency payments
7071
06:00:29,440 --> 06:00:32,878
through a partnership with blockchain
7072
06:00:31,040 --> 06:00:34,718
platform Solid Block. According to
7073
06:00:32,878 --> 06:00:36,958
Forbes, the deal demonstrated that
7074
06:00:34,718 --> 06:00:39,760
crypto was no longer just a speculative
7075
06:00:36,958 --> 06:00:42,320
asset. It had become a viable method for
7076
06:00:39,760 --> 06:00:45,120
purchasing high-end real estate. Hey
7077
06:00:42,320 --> 06:00:47,360
Study 2 in Dubai, one of the earliest
7078
06:00:45,120 --> 06:00:49,840
large-scale experiments with crypto real
7079
06:00:47,360 --> 06:00:52,240
estate unfolded at Aston Plaza and
7080
06:00:49,840 --> 06:00:54,878
Residences located in Dubai Science
7081
06:00:52,240 --> 06:00:56,558
Park. Marketed as one of the first major
7082
06:00:54,878 --> 06:00:59,120
developments in the region to accept
7083
06:00:56,558 --> 06:01:01,760
Bitcoin, the project offered apartments
7084
06:00:59,120 --> 06:01:03,760
priced directly in cryptocurrency,
7085
06:01:01,760 --> 06:01:06,480
buyers were able to commit funds using
7086
06:01:03,760 --> 06:01:08,400
Bitcoin, capturing global attention. But
7087
06:01:06,480 --> 06:01:11,280
the story also revealed the risks of
7088
06:01:08,400 --> 06:01:14,798
innovation. Originally advertised as a
7089
06:01:11,280 --> 06:01:16,958
$325 million development, the project
7090
06:01:14,798 --> 06:01:19,360
later stalled and its completion became
7091
06:01:16,958 --> 06:01:22,240
uncertain. While crypto payments were
7092
06:01:19,360 --> 06:01:24,400
accepted, it remains unclear whether all
7093
06:01:22,240 --> 06:01:26,798
buyers ultimately received finished
7094
06:01:24,400 --> 06:01:29,280
properties. The case highlighted both
7095
06:01:26,798 --> 06:01:32,080
the promise and the pitfalls of early
7096
06:01:29,280 --> 06:01:35,440
crypto adoption real estate. Case study
7097
06:01:32,080 --> 06:01:37,440
3. In 2025, Spain recorded one of its
7098
06:01:35,440 --> 06:01:39,920
first officially reported property sales
7099
06:01:37,440 --> 06:01:42,638
completed with Bitcoin. A property in
7100
06:01:39,920 --> 06:01:44,558
Madrid valued at approximately 1.5
7101
06:01:42,638 --> 06:01:46,798
million of euros was purchased by an
7102
06:01:44,558 --> 06:01:48,718
international buyer using Bitcoin. The
7103
06:01:46,798 --> 06:01:51,760
transaction followed standard real
7104
06:01:48,718 --> 06:01:54,160
estate procedures including escrow legal
7105
06:01:51,760 --> 06:01:56,558
compliance and the conversion of crypto
7106
06:01:54,160 --> 06:01:58,320
into euros for the seller. It marked a
7107
06:01:56,558 --> 06:02:00,080
significant milestone showing that
7108
06:01:58,320 --> 06:02:02,320
cryptocurrency could integrate into
7109
06:02:00,080 --> 06:02:04,878
traditional real estate systems even in
7110
06:02:02,320 --> 06:02:07,520
highly regulated European markets. Case
7111
06:02:04,878 --> 06:02:10,080
study four in the United States crypto
7112
06:02:07,520 --> 06:02:12,638
adoption hasn't been limited to coastal
7113
06:02:10,080 --> 06:02:15,040
tech hubs. An agent with Safabis
7114
06:02:12,638 --> 06:02:17,840
International Realy in Delaware reported
7115
06:02:15,040 --> 06:02:20,718
selling a luxury property for $175
7116
06:02:17,840 --> 06:02:22,798
million paid in Bitcoin. Believed to be
7117
06:02:20,718 --> 06:02:24,480
one of the state's first major real
7118
06:02:22,798 --> 06:02:26,718
estate transactions involving
7119
06:02:24,480 --> 06:02:28,798
cryptocurrency, the sale was widely
7120
06:02:26,718 --> 06:02:30,718
publicized as a local milestone,
7121
06:02:28,798 --> 06:02:32,718
signaling that crypto real estate was
7122
06:02:30,718 --> 06:02:37,400
beginning to reach beyond niche markets
7123
06:02:32,718 --> 06:02:37,400
and into everyday property transactions.
7124
06:02:38,160 --> 06:02:41,638
Genius Act.
7125
06:03:07,760 --> 06:03:10,000
Evolution.
7126
06:03:36,080 --> 06:03:40,680
Maximum forto forch.
7127
06:04:29,040 --> 06:04:33,600
Taken together, these cases tell a
7128
06:04:31,040 --> 06:04:35,840
larger story, one of experimentation,
7129
06:04:33,600 --> 06:04:38,160
success, setbacks, and growing
7130
06:04:35,840 --> 06:04:40,400
legitimacy. Crypto real estate is no
7131
06:04:38,160 --> 06:04:42,558
longer hypothetical. It's happening
7132
06:04:40,400 --> 06:04:46,400
transaction by transaction across the
7133
06:04:42,558 --> 06:04:48,240
globe. But it's not all smooth sailing.
7134
06:04:46,400 --> 06:04:50,638
Crypto's value can be volatile.
7135
06:04:48,240 --> 06:04:53,120
Regulations vary by country, and tax
7136
06:04:50,638 --> 06:04:55,440
implications can be tricky. First,
7137
06:04:53,120 --> 06:04:57,600
volatility. Bitcoin and other
7138
06:04:55,440 --> 06:04:59,440
cryptocurrencies can move dramatically,
7139
06:04:57,600 --> 06:05:01,280
sometimes losing or gaining a third of
7140
06:04:59,440 --> 06:05:03,600
their value in weeks. For buyers who
7141
06:05:01,280 --> 06:05:06,958
convert at closing, rapid swings can
7142
06:05:03,600 --> 06:05:10,160
erase gains or spike costs in hours.
7143
06:05:06,958 --> 06:05:12,240
Second, transaction mechanics and title.
7144
06:05:10,160 --> 06:05:14,320
Even when a seller accepts crypto, most
7145
06:05:12,240 --> 06:05:15,760
governments and land registries require
7146
06:05:14,320 --> 06:05:18,080
deeds to be issued in the local
7147
06:05:15,760 --> 06:05:20,320
currency. That usually means an
7148
06:05:18,080 --> 06:05:22,240
intermediary converts crypto to fiat
7149
06:05:20,320 --> 06:05:24,400
before the legal title is registered,
7150
06:05:22,240 --> 06:05:26,160
adding counterparty risk and an extra
7151
06:05:24,400 --> 06:05:29,040
step that can delay and complicate
7152
06:05:26,160 --> 06:05:30,798
settlements. Third, taxes. In many
7153
06:05:29,040 --> 06:05:32,878
jurisdictions, authorities treat crypto
7154
06:05:30,798 --> 06:05:34,718
as property, not currency, which makes
7155
06:05:32,878 --> 06:05:37,120
nearly every transfer a taxable event.
7156
06:05:34,718 --> 06:05:39,200
That includes sales, exchanges, and
7157
06:05:37,120 --> 06:05:41,440
sometimes even payments for goods or
7158
06:05:39,200 --> 06:05:43,680
services. Buyers and sellers must track
7159
06:05:41,440 --> 06:05:45,840
cost basis, gains, and report the
7160
06:05:43,680 --> 06:05:48,400
transactions accurately or face audits
7161
06:05:45,840 --> 06:05:50,320
and penalties. Fourth, lending and
7162
06:05:48,400 --> 06:05:51,920
counterparty risk. Cryptoback lending
7163
06:05:50,320 --> 06:05:53,760
exploded in the previous market cycle,
7164
06:05:51,920 --> 06:05:55,920
but it ended with high-profile collapses
7165
06:05:53,760 --> 06:05:57,840
and bankruptcies. When platforms fail,
7166
06:05:55,920 --> 06:05:59,760
borrowers and depositors can lose access
7167
06:05:57,840 --> 06:06:01,360
to funds. Collateral can be liquidated
7168
06:05:59,760 --> 06:06:03,200
at a loss and promise liquidity
7169
06:06:01,360 --> 06:06:05,120
disappears, a danger for anyone relying
7170
06:06:03,200 --> 06:06:07,280
on thirdparty services to bridge crypto
7171
06:06:05,120 --> 06:06:08,558
and property purchases.
7172
06:06:07,280 --> 06:06:11,120
Fifth, compliance and
7173
06:06:08,558 --> 06:06:12,798
anti-moneyaundering rules. Regulators
7174
06:06:11,120 --> 06:06:14,638
and global bodies have tightened rules
7175
06:06:12,798 --> 06:06:16,878
around virtual assets to prevent illicit
7176
06:06:14,638 --> 06:06:19,280
flows. Real estate transactions are high
7177
06:06:16,878 --> 06:06:20,958
on that list, meaning additional KYC,
7178
06:06:19,280 --> 06:06:23,040
source of fund checks, and reporting
7179
06:06:20,958 --> 06:06:24,878
requirements. Failure to meet these
7180
06:06:23,040 --> 06:06:27,200
standards can stall a sale, trigger
7181
06:06:24,878 --> 06:06:30,320
investigations, or expose participants
7182
06:06:27,200 --> 06:06:32,638
to legal liability. Sixth, operational
7183
06:06:30,320 --> 06:06:34,400
and technical risk. Crypto transactions
7184
06:06:32,638 --> 06:06:36,000
are irreversible. A single wrong
7185
06:06:34,400 --> 06:06:37,600
character in a wallet address or a
7186
06:06:36,000 --> 06:06:39,360
fishing attack on an email with wiring
7187
06:06:37,600 --> 06:06:40,798
instructions can send millions to the
7188
06:06:39,360 --> 06:06:42,638
wrong place, and there's no bank to
7189
06:06:40,798 --> 06:06:44,558
reverse the transfer. Seventh,
7190
06:06:42,638 --> 06:06:46,558
technology risk, smart contracts,
7191
06:06:44,558 --> 06:06:48,480
tokenization, and new platforms bring
7192
06:06:46,558 --> 06:06:50,320
innovation, but also software bugs and
7193
06:06:48,480 --> 06:06:52,400
design flaws. A poorly written smart
7194
06:06:50,320 --> 06:06:54,718
contract or an unodudited tokenization
7195
06:06:52,400 --> 06:06:57,520
platform can freeze assets, misallocate
7196
06:06:54,718 --> 06:07:00,080
ownership shares or enable exploits.
7197
06:06:57,520 --> 06:07:01,760
Finally, market and reputational risk.
7198
06:07:00,080 --> 06:07:03,440
Developers and brokers who accept crypto
7199
06:07:01,760 --> 06:07:05,280
can attract new buyers, but they also
7200
06:07:03,440 --> 06:07:07,040
take on greater scrutiny, regulatory
7201
06:07:05,280 --> 06:07:08,798
compliance burdens, and the risk that
7202
06:07:07,040 --> 06:07:11,040
projects promoted with crypto funding
7203
06:07:08,798 --> 06:07:14,080
may underdel, stall, or become entangled
7204
06:07:11,040 --> 06:07:16,400
in legal disputes. In short, crypto can
7205
06:07:14,080 --> 06:07:18,958
speed and globalize property deals, but
7206
06:07:16,400 --> 06:07:21,600
it also layers on volatility, regulatory
7207
06:07:18,958 --> 06:07:23,680
complexity, and new failure modes. For
7208
06:07:21,600 --> 06:07:26,000
buyers, sellers, and advisers, the
7209
06:07:23,680 --> 06:07:27,840
lesson is clear. Proceed with rigorous
7210
06:07:26,000 --> 06:07:30,400
legal counsel, hardened custody
7211
06:07:27,840 --> 06:07:32,400
practices, and transparent compliance.
7212
06:07:30,400 --> 06:07:35,400
The opportunity is real, but so are the
7213
06:07:32,400 --> 06:07:35,400
pitfalls.
7214
06:07:54,080 --> 06:07:59,200
Still, the opportunities are huge. A new
7215
06:07:57,040 --> 06:08:01,520
generation of buyers is turning digital
7216
06:07:59,200 --> 06:08:04,480
value into physical assets. For many,
7217
06:08:01,520 --> 06:08:06,718
Bitcoin isn't just a currency. It's a
7218
06:08:04,480 --> 06:08:08,000
gateway to ownership.
7219
06:08:06,718 --> 06:08:10,240
One of the biggest shifts is
7220
06:08:08,000 --> 06:08:12,400
tokenization. Instead of buying an
7221
06:08:10,240 --> 06:08:14,320
entire building, investors can now
7222
06:08:12,400 --> 06:08:16,878
purchase fractional ownership through
7223
06:08:14,320 --> 06:08:18,558
blockchainbased tokens. This lowers the
7224
06:08:16,878 --> 06:08:20,558
barrier to entry, allowing smaller
7225
06:08:18,558 --> 06:08:22,400
investors to access real estate markets
7226
06:08:20,558 --> 06:08:26,040
that were once reserved for institutions
7227
06:08:22,400 --> 06:08:26,040
and the ultra wealthy.
7228
06:08:32,080 --> 06:08:35,080
for
7229
06:08:58,878 --> 06:09:01,200
important.
7230
06:09:10,638 --> 06:09:15,520
Tokenization also brings liquidity to an
7231
06:09:13,520 --> 06:09:17,920
industry that has traditionally been
7232
06:09:15,520 --> 06:09:20,320
slow and illquid. Real estate
7233
06:09:17,920 --> 06:09:22,480
transactions can take months. Tokenized
7234
06:09:20,320 --> 06:09:25,200
shares can potentially be transferred in
7235
06:09:22,480 --> 06:09:27,440
minutes. Crypto is also reshaping
7236
06:09:25,200 --> 06:09:29,600
crossber real estate. International
7237
06:09:27,440 --> 06:09:32,400
buyers often face currency controls,
7238
06:09:29,600 --> 06:09:34,400
wire delays, and banking restrictions.
7239
06:09:32,400 --> 06:09:36,320
Cryptocurrency allows capital to move
7240
06:09:34,400 --> 06:09:38,080
globally with fewer friction points,
7241
06:09:36,320 --> 06:09:40,160
opening markets to buyers who were
7242
06:09:38,080 --> 06:09:41,840
previously locked out. As a result,
7243
06:09:40,160 --> 06:09:43,440
cities that embrace crypto-friendly
7244
06:09:41,840 --> 06:09:45,280
regulations are attracting global
7245
06:09:43,440 --> 06:09:46,798
capital faster. Developers are
7246
06:09:45,280 --> 06:09:48,638
responding by marketing properties
7247
06:09:46,798 --> 06:09:51,200
directly to crypto holders, not as a
7248
06:09:48,638 --> 06:09:53,120
novelty, but as a strategy. Governments
7249
06:09:51,200 --> 06:09:54,958
are also exploring blockchain for land
7250
06:09:53,120 --> 06:09:57,120
registries and property records.
7251
06:09:54,958 --> 06:09:59,040
Immutable ledgers can reduce disputes,
7252
06:09:57,120 --> 06:10:01,440
prevent title fraud, and provide
7253
06:09:59,040 --> 06:10:02,958
permanent verifiable ownership history,
7254
06:10:01,440 --> 06:10:05,200
especially in regions where property
7255
06:10:02,958 --> 06:10:07,040
rights are difficult to enforce. This
7256
06:10:05,200 --> 06:10:08,958
isn't a complete replacement of
7257
06:10:07,040 --> 06:10:11,280
traditional real estate. It's a
7258
06:10:08,958 --> 06:10:13,680
transformation. Crypto doesn't eliminate
7259
06:10:11,280 --> 06:10:15,440
the fundamentals. Location, demand, and
7260
06:10:13,680 --> 06:10:17,280
due diligence still matter, but it
7261
06:10:15,440 --> 06:10:19,440
changes how value moves, how quickly
7262
06:10:17,280 --> 06:10:21,440
deals happen, and who gets access. So,
7263
06:10:19,440 --> 06:10:23,600
what does all of this mean for you as an
7264
06:10:21,440 --> 06:10:25,360
investor or future home buyer? It means
7265
06:10:23,600 --> 06:10:27,280
new opportunities are emerging.
7266
06:10:25,360 --> 06:10:29,520
Opportunities to leverage your crypto
7267
06:10:27,280 --> 06:10:32,160
holdings. Opportunities to participate
7268
06:10:29,520 --> 06:10:34,558
in international markets more easily.
7269
06:10:32,160 --> 06:10:38,120
Opportunities to acquire property faster
7270
06:10:34,558 --> 06:10:38,120
and more efficiently.
7271
06:10:44,240 --> 06:10:47,240
for
7272
06:11:15,360 --> 06:11:17,760
consequenc
7273
06:11:28,240 --> 06:11:31,480
Real estate
7274
06:11:37,200 --> 06:11:40,200
system.
7275
06:11:43,120 --> 06:11:46,120
Contractors
7276
06:12:08,320 --> 06:12:11,558
real estate.
7277
06:12:17,600 --> 06:12:22,878
But like any emerging space, education
7278
06:12:20,558 --> 06:12:25,440
is key. Working with crypto-friendly
7279
06:12:22,878 --> 06:12:27,520
agents, attorneys, and escrow companies
7280
06:12:25,440 --> 06:12:29,600
is essential.
7281
06:12:27,520 --> 06:12:31,280
Understanding your local regulations is
7282
06:12:29,600 --> 06:12:33,040
crucial, and ensuring the security of
7283
06:12:31,280 --> 06:12:36,040
your crypto wallet is absolutely
7284
06:12:33,040 --> 06:12:36,040
non-negotiable.
7285
06:12:40,000 --> 06:12:43,000
for
7286
06:12:47,680 --> 06:12:51,000
sophistic. Finan.
7287
06:12:56,558 --> 06:12:59,558
for
7288
06:13:23,520 --> 06:13:28,080
companion
7289
06:13:26,000 --> 06:13:28,080
moment.
7290
06:13:36,080 --> 06:13:39,080
Finances.
7291
06:13:57,680 --> 06:14:00,680
Absolute
7292
06:14:03,040 --> 06:14:06,040
maximos.
7293
06:14:39,920 --> 06:14:44,320
The cryptocurrency market has entered
7294
06:14:41,840 --> 06:14:47,600
the opening days of 2026 with renewed
7295
06:14:44,320 --> 06:14:49,840
momentum. After a volatile end to 2025,
7296
06:14:47,600 --> 06:14:51,520
prices across major digital assets have
7297
06:14:49,840 --> 06:14:53,120
moved sharply higher, drawing attention
7298
06:14:51,520 --> 06:14:55,440
from both retail traders and
7299
06:14:53,120 --> 06:14:57,680
institutional investors. In early
7300
06:14:55,440 --> 06:15:00,080
January, the total cryptocurrency market
7301
06:14:57,680 --> 06:15:02,480
capitalization climbed to around $3.2
7302
06:15:00,080 --> 06:15:04,480
trillion, according to aggregated data
7303
06:15:02,480 --> 06:15:06,160
from major market trackers. This
7304
06:15:04,480 --> 06:15:08,798
represents a meaningful rebound from
7305
06:15:06,160 --> 06:15:10,480
late 2025 levels, with the market adding
7306
06:15:08,798 --> 06:15:12,400
hundreds of billions of dollars in value
7307
06:15:10,480 --> 06:15:14,320
over a relatively short period. While
7308
06:15:12,400 --> 06:15:15,840
exact figures vary, the direction is
7309
06:15:14,320 --> 06:15:17,440
clear. Capital has returned to the
7310
06:15:15,840 --> 06:15:19,280
crypto market at the start of the year.
7311
06:15:17,440 --> 06:15:21,760
At the center of this move is Bitcoin,
7312
06:15:19,280 --> 06:15:24,080
which rallied toward the $93,000 level
7313
06:15:21,760 --> 06:15:26,080
in the first week of January. As the
7314
06:15:24,080 --> 06:15:28,320
largest and most influential digital
7315
06:15:26,080 --> 06:15:29,920
asset, Bitcoin continues to act as the
7316
06:15:28,320 --> 06:15:31,360
market's primary anchor, and its
7317
06:15:29,920 --> 06:15:33,440
strength has helped lift sentiment
7318
06:15:31,360 --> 06:15:35,760
across the broader ecosystem.
7319
06:15:33,440 --> 06:15:38,160
Historically, strong Bitcoin performance
7320
06:15:35,760 --> 06:15:39,520
has often preceded periods of increased
7321
06:15:38,160 --> 06:15:42,400
activity in alternative
7322
06:15:39,520 --> 06:15:44,320
cryptocurrencies, and early 2026 appears
7323
06:15:42,400 --> 06:15:46,000
to be following a similar pattern.
7324
06:15:44,320 --> 06:15:47,600
Another key factor has been renewed
7325
06:15:46,000 --> 06:15:49,280
institutional participation,
7326
06:15:47,600 --> 06:15:51,920
particularly through spot Bitcoin and
7327
06:15:49,280 --> 06:15:54,320
Ethereum exchange traded funds. Reports
7328
06:15:51,920 --> 06:15:56,000
from early January indicate notable ETF
7329
06:15:54,320 --> 06:15:57,840
inflows, suggesting that traditional
7330
06:15:56,000 --> 06:15:59,920
investors are once again increasing
7331
06:15:57,840 --> 06:16:01,600
exposure to digital assets. The current
7332
06:15:59,920 --> 06:16:03,520
momentum appears to be driven by a
7333
06:16:01,600 --> 06:16:06,480
combination of factors, including
7334
06:16:03,520 --> 06:16:09,280
Bitcoin's price recovery, increased ETF
7335
06:16:06,480 --> 06:16:10,798
inflows, improved global risk sentiment,
7336
06:16:09,280 --> 06:16:13,200
expectations of more supportive
7337
06:16:10,798 --> 06:16:15,680
regulatory and macroeconomic conditions.
7338
06:16:13,200 --> 06:16:17,520
As 2026 begins, the cryptocurrency
7339
06:16:15,680 --> 06:16:19,680
market finds itself at a familiar
7340
06:16:17,520 --> 06:16:21,360
crossroads. Renewed optimism balanced
7341
06:16:19,680 --> 06:16:23,040
against persistent uncertainty. Whether
7342
06:16:21,360 --> 06:16:24,878
this earlier strength marks the
7343
06:16:23,040 --> 06:16:26,480
beginning of a sustained trend or simply
7344
06:16:24,878 --> 06:16:28,558
another chapter in crypto's cyclical
7345
06:16:26,480 --> 06:16:31,600
nature is a question that only time will
7346
06:16:28,558 --> 06:16:34,320
answer. For now, the message from the
7347
06:16:31,600 --> 06:16:36,320
market is clear. Crypto is once again
7348
06:16:34,320 --> 06:16:38,000
commanding attention. If you approach
7349
06:16:36,320 --> 06:16:40,080
crypto real estate with knowledge and
7350
06:16:38,000 --> 06:16:42,878
preparation, the rewards can be
7351
06:16:40,080 --> 06:16:45,760
extraordinary. Bitcoin the bricks isn't
7352
06:16:42,878 --> 06:16:48,080
just a catchy phrase. It's the future of
7353
06:16:45,760 --> 06:16:50,400
real estate investment. If you want to
7354
06:16:48,080 --> 06:16:52,958
stay ahead of the curve, now's the time
7355
06:16:50,400 --> 06:16:55,958
to learn how crypto can open doors.
7356
06:16:52,958 --> 06:16:55,958
Literally.
7357
06:17:06,558 --> 06:17:09,558
Explorer
7358
06:17:19,200 --> 06:17:21,600
Transparenc.
7359
06:17:26,240 --> 06:17:29,240
control.
7360
06:17:52,878 --> 06:17:56,718
From digital coins to physical assets,
7361
06:17:55,040 --> 06:17:58,798
from online wallets to real world
7362
06:17:56,718 --> 06:18:00,878
property lines, cryptocurrency is
7363
06:17:58,798 --> 06:18:03,440
reshaping how we buy, sell, and think
7364
06:18:00,878 --> 06:18:05,760
about real estate. We are witnessing the
7365
06:18:03,440 --> 06:18:07,440
merging of two worlds. The oldest asset
7366
06:18:05,760 --> 06:18:09,680
on earth and one of the newest
7367
06:18:07,440 --> 06:18:12,480
technological inventions of our time.
7368
06:18:09,680 --> 06:18:14,958
And as the future unfolds, only one
7369
06:18:12,480 --> 06:18:18,280
question remain. Will Bitcoin buy your
7370
06:18:14,958 --> 06:18:18,280
next home?
7371
06:19:41,520 --> 06:19:46,878
September 2008.
7372
06:19:44,400 --> 06:19:49,520
The global financial system is on the
7373
06:19:46,878 --> 06:19:52,480
verge of a total blackout. Layman
7374
06:19:49,520 --> 06:19:56,240
Brothers has vanished. Meil Lynch is
7375
06:19:52,480 --> 06:19:58,320
gone. AIG is hemorrhaging billions every
7376
06:19:56,240 --> 06:20:00,558
hour.
7377
06:19:58,320 --> 06:20:02,480
In Washington, the halls of the Treasury
7378
06:20:00,558 --> 06:20:05,840
are filled with the smartest minds in
7379
06:20:02,480 --> 06:20:08,718
the country. But they have a problem.
7380
06:20:05,840 --> 06:20:11,680
They are staring at a black box of toxic
7381
06:20:08,718 --> 06:20:14,638
debt worth trillions and no tools to
7382
06:20:11,680 --> 06:20:17,760
open it. There is only one person who
7383
06:20:14,638 --> 06:20:20,240
has the map. One person who spent the
7384
06:20:17,760 --> 06:20:22,480
last 20 years building a digital
7385
06:20:20,240 --> 06:20:25,200
unblinking eye that can see through the
7386
06:20:22,480 --> 06:20:27,680
wreckage. The government didn't call the
7387
06:20:25,200 --> 06:20:30,400
big banks to save the world. They needed
7388
06:20:27,680 --> 06:20:32,320
someone to handle the toxic waste. And
7389
06:20:30,400 --> 06:20:35,840
there was only one man that could lead
7390
06:20:32,320 --> 06:20:38,840
through that darkness. They called Larry
7391
06:20:35,840 --> 06:20:38,840
Frink.
7392
06:20:40,240 --> 06:20:45,878
Larry Frink, the man behind Black Rock.
7393
06:20:46,638 --> 06:20:53,120
Today, he manages more money than the
7394
06:20:48,718 --> 06:20:55,360
GDP of almost every nation on Earth, $14
7395
06:20:53,120 --> 06:20:57,360
trillion.
7396
06:20:55,360 --> 06:20:59,680
But before he was the shadow sovereign
7397
06:20:57,360 --> 06:21:01,360
of Wall Street, he was a man who lost
7398
06:20:59,680 --> 06:21:05,440
everything.
7399
06:21:01,360 --> 06:21:07,520
Who is Larry Frink? Lawrence D.Fin, also
7400
06:21:05,440 --> 06:21:10,240
known as Larry Frink, is one of the
7401
06:21:07,520 --> 06:21:13,600
co-founders of Black Rockck. He is also
7402
06:21:10,240 --> 06:21:15,600
the chairman and CEO of the company, the
7403
06:21:13,600 --> 06:21:18,798
largest money management firm in the
7404
06:21:15,600 --> 06:21:20,558
world. It's the first time in history a
7405
06:21:18,798 --> 06:21:23,200
company manages to reach such a
7406
06:21:20,558 --> 06:21:26,240
milestone and gives a clear picture of
7407
06:21:23,200 --> 06:21:28,878
how Black Rockck operates. Not just a
7408
06:21:26,240 --> 06:21:31,200
traditional investment bank, but as a
7409
06:21:28,878 --> 06:21:33,920
central pillar of the global financial
7410
06:21:31,200 --> 06:21:36,160
infrastructure, where its sheer scale
7411
06:21:33,920 --> 06:21:38,000
allows it to influence economies and
7412
06:21:36,160 --> 06:21:42,320
industries at a level previously
7413
06:21:38,000 --> 06:21:45,280
reserved only for nation states.
7414
06:21:42,320 --> 06:21:48,160
Founded in 1988 as an investment firm
7415
06:21:45,280 --> 06:21:52,320
that prioritized risk management with
7416
06:21:48,160 --> 06:21:55,600
11.5 to 14 trillion under management,
7417
06:21:52,320 --> 06:21:57,840
Black Rockck's influence is staggering.
7418
06:21:55,600 --> 06:22:01,920
Black Rockck is a top three shareholder
7419
06:21:57,840 --> 06:22:05,120
in nearly every company in the S&P 500
7420
06:22:01,920 --> 06:22:08,000
from Apple to Exxon, from Microsoft to
7421
06:22:05,120 --> 06:22:11,760
Nestle. They don't just invest in the
7422
06:22:08,000 --> 06:22:14,638
market, they are the market.
7423
06:22:11,760 --> 06:22:17,280
But its reach is personal. It holds the
7424
06:22:14,638 --> 06:22:20,400
retirement dreams of over 35 million
7425
06:22:17,280 --> 06:22:22,958
Americans. This is the story of how a
7426
06:22:20,400 --> 06:22:26,558
kid from a California shoe store became
7427
06:22:22,958 --> 06:22:30,080
the custodian of the world's wealth. But
7428
06:22:26,558 --> 06:22:32,638
who is Larry Frink? Lawrence Douglas
7429
06:22:30,080 --> 06:22:35,120
Frink entered the world on November the
7430
06:22:32,638 --> 06:22:37,840
2nd, 1952.
7431
06:22:35,120 --> 06:22:39,840
Born in Los Angeles, California, he was
7432
06:22:37,840 --> 06:22:41,840
raised in a Jewish family in the heart
7433
06:22:39,840 --> 06:22:44,480
of San Fernando Valley, the
7434
06:22:41,840 --> 06:22:46,400
quintessential American suburb of Fan
7435
06:22:44,480 --> 06:22:48,558
Noise.
7436
06:22:46,400 --> 06:22:51,440
His home was a balance of academic
7437
06:22:48,558 --> 06:22:53,600
discipline and retail grit. His mother,
7438
06:22:51,440 --> 06:22:55,440
Leela, was an English professor who
7439
06:22:53,600 --> 06:22:56,958
valued the power of language and
7440
06:22:55,440 --> 06:22:58,958
education.
7441
06:22:56,958 --> 06:23:01,280
And long before he pulled the strings of
7442
06:22:58,958 --> 06:23:03,360
the global economy, Larry Frink was
7443
06:23:01,280 --> 06:23:04,958
learning the value of money on a much
7444
06:23:03,360 --> 06:23:07,920
smaller scale.
7445
06:23:04,958 --> 06:23:10,000
his father's shoe store in Vanoise where
7446
06:23:07,920 --> 06:23:13,360
he spent evenings helping and learning
7447
06:23:10,000 --> 06:23:15,600
the business. As one of three children,
7448
06:23:13,360 --> 06:23:18,080
Larry grew up in a household where hard
7449
06:23:15,600 --> 06:23:19,600
work wasn't just encouraged, it was the
7450
06:23:18,080 --> 06:23:21,600
baseline.
7451
06:23:19,600 --> 06:23:23,680
While he often joked he wasn't the
7452
06:23:21,600 --> 06:23:25,840
smartest in the room, it was this
7453
06:23:23,680 --> 06:23:28,558
specific combination of his mother's
7454
06:23:25,840 --> 06:23:30,638
intellectual curiosity and his father's
7455
06:23:28,558 --> 06:23:33,200
mainstream business sense that would
7456
06:23:30,638 --> 06:23:36,320
eventually form the DNA of a global
7457
06:23:33,200 --> 06:23:38,240
financial giant. While the future titans
7458
06:23:36,320 --> 06:23:40,638
of Wall Street were rubbing elbows in
7459
06:23:38,240 --> 06:23:44,878
the marble halls of Harvard or Yale,
7460
06:23:40,638 --> 06:23:48,160
Think was a brewin. In 1970, Larry
7461
06:23:44,878 --> 06:23:50,718
arrived at UCLA. For a young man from
7462
06:23:48,160 --> 06:23:54,400
Vanoise, this wasn't just a local
7463
06:23:50,718 --> 06:23:56,558
university. It was a world of ideas.
7464
06:23:54,400 --> 06:23:59,040
But it was in his final years that the
7465
06:23:56,558 --> 06:24:01,520
trajectory of his life shifted. He
7466
06:23:59,040 --> 06:24:03,360
immersed himself in political science,
7467
06:24:01,520 --> 06:24:06,240
learning how power moves through
7468
06:24:03,360 --> 06:24:08,320
nations. But he soon realized that in
7469
06:24:06,240 --> 06:24:10,958
the modern world, power follows the
7470
06:24:08,320 --> 06:24:12,958
money. This led him to the Anderson
7471
06:24:10,958 --> 06:24:15,840
School of Management specializing in
7472
06:24:12,958 --> 06:24:17,680
real estate. It was here that he began
7473
06:24:15,840 --> 06:24:20,480
to see the world through the lens of
7474
06:24:17,680 --> 06:24:22,400
assets and yields.
7475
06:24:20,480 --> 06:24:24,878
This public education gave him a
7476
06:24:22,400 --> 06:24:26,718
different edge. While his peers at
7477
06:24:24,878 --> 06:24:28,958
private East Coast schools were being
7478
06:24:26,718 --> 06:24:31,680
groomed for traditional corporate roles,
7479
06:24:28,958 --> 06:24:33,680
Larry was developing the outsider's eye,
7480
06:24:31,680 --> 06:24:35,920
a perspective that allowed him to see
7481
06:24:33,680 --> 06:24:40,080
opportunities in the messy, unpolished
7482
06:24:35,920 --> 06:24:40,080
corners of the bond market.
7483
06:24:40,718 --> 06:24:46,480
He graduated in 1976, not with a silver
7484
06:24:44,400 --> 06:24:48,400
spoon, but with a California bred
7485
06:24:46,480 --> 06:24:50,080
ambition to take on the giants of
7486
06:24:48,400 --> 06:24:52,718
Manhattan.
7487
06:24:50,080 --> 06:24:55,200
He was a brewin headed for Wall Street,
7488
06:24:52,718 --> 06:24:58,360
and the financial world had no idea what
7489
06:24:55,200 --> 06:24:58,360
was coming.
7490
06:25:00,558 --> 06:25:05,040
The year is 1976.
7491
06:25:03,120 --> 06:25:07,200
New York City is a grit cover
7492
06:25:05,040 --> 06:25:09,920
battlefield and Larry Frink has just
7493
06:25:07,200 --> 06:25:12,240
been handed the keys to the kingdom.
7494
06:25:09,920 --> 06:25:14,480
Goldman Sachs, the most prestigious name
7495
06:25:12,240 --> 06:25:17,760
in finance back then, has practically
7496
06:25:14,480 --> 06:25:20,798
hired him. He had passed the technical
7497
06:25:17,760 --> 06:25:22,558
tests. He had charmed the partners. All
7498
06:25:20,798 --> 06:25:25,120
that remained was a rubber stamp
7499
06:25:22,558 --> 06:25:28,480
interview with human resources.
7500
06:25:25,120 --> 06:25:31,200
But Larry, Larry wasn't just confident,
7501
06:25:28,480 --> 06:25:33,040
he was impatient. When the recruiter
7502
06:25:31,200 --> 06:25:35,520
asked for his thoughts on the firm,
7503
06:25:33,040 --> 06:25:38,160
Larry didn't give a thank you. He gave a
7504
06:25:35,520 --> 06:25:40,638
consultation. He pointed out the flaws
7505
06:25:38,160 --> 06:25:43,760
in their system. At Goldman, they wanted
7506
06:25:40,638 --> 06:25:47,000
a soldier. Larry was already acting like
7507
06:25:43,760 --> 06:25:47,000
a general.
7508
06:25:48,558 --> 06:25:53,920
In that room, the rigid Goldman way
7509
06:25:50,878 --> 06:25:56,240
clashed with the unfiltered Frink way.
7510
06:25:53,920 --> 06:25:59,440
Before he could even hail a camp to his
7511
06:25:56,240 --> 06:26:01,760
hotel, the offer was dead. The most
7512
06:25:59,440 --> 06:26:04,080
coveted job in Wall Street history had
7513
06:26:01,760 --> 06:26:05,920
vanished. All because Larry Frink
7514
06:26:04,080 --> 06:26:09,280
couldn't stop himself from trying to fix
7515
06:26:05,920 --> 06:26:12,320
a system he hadn't even joined yet. It
7516
06:26:09,280 --> 06:26:14,798
was a crushing blow. But in the shadow
7517
06:26:12,320 --> 06:26:17,040
of that rejection, a door opened at a
7518
06:26:14,798 --> 06:26:19,520
scrappy second tier firm called First
7519
06:26:17,040 --> 06:26:22,878
Boston. It was a place with less
7520
06:26:19,520 --> 06:26:25,200
prestige but more white space. At
7521
06:26:22,878 --> 06:26:28,240
Goldman, he would have been a cog in a
7522
06:26:25,200 --> 06:26:31,120
perfect machine. At First Boston, he was
7523
06:26:28,240 --> 06:26:33,120
the architect. He was given a desk, a
7524
06:26:31,120 --> 06:26:35,440
telephone, and the freedom to build
7525
06:26:33,120 --> 06:26:38,320
something entirely new, the
7526
06:26:35,440 --> 06:26:40,958
mortgagebacked security. He didn't know
7527
06:26:38,320 --> 06:26:43,680
it yet, but that recruiters know was the
7528
06:26:40,958 --> 06:26:48,680
foundation upon which the 14 trillion
7529
06:26:43,680 --> 06:26:48,680
empire of Black Rockck would be built.
7530
06:26:53,680 --> 06:27:00,000
It's 1976 when Larry Frink arrives at
7531
06:26:56,958 --> 06:27:02,000
First Boston. At the time, the firm was
7532
06:27:00,000 --> 06:27:04,718
the scrappy underdog of investment
7533
06:27:02,000 --> 06:27:08,320
banking. It wasn't as stiff as Morgan
7534
06:27:04,718 --> 06:27:10,478
Stanley or as elitist as Goldman. It was
7535
06:27:08,320 --> 06:27:13,600
the perfect laboratory for a man who
7536
06:27:10,478 --> 06:27:16,638
didn't fit the mold. Larry was assigned
7537
06:27:13,600 --> 06:27:18,638
to the bond department. Back then, bonds
7538
06:27:16,638 --> 06:27:19,840
were considered the boring corner of
7539
06:27:18,638 --> 06:27:22,718
finance.
7540
06:27:19,840 --> 06:27:25,760
It was where you went to retire. Stocks
7541
06:27:22,718 --> 06:27:28,718
were sexy. Bonds were for grandmothers.
7542
06:27:25,760 --> 06:27:30,240
But Larry saw something everyone else
7543
06:27:28,718 --> 06:27:32,478
missed.
7544
06:27:30,240 --> 06:27:35,200
He looked at the American dream, the
7545
06:27:32,478 --> 06:27:38,160
suburban house, the white picket fence,
7546
06:27:35,200 --> 06:27:39,600
the 30-year mortgage, and he saw a math
7547
06:27:38,160 --> 06:27:41,600
problem.
7548
06:27:39,600 --> 06:27:44,000
He realized that if you took thousands
7549
06:27:41,600 --> 06:27:46,160
of individual home mortgages, bundled
7550
06:27:44,000 --> 06:27:48,878
them together like a deck of cards, and
7551
06:27:46,160 --> 06:27:51,920
sold slices of that deck to investors,
7552
06:27:48,878 --> 06:27:54,798
you created a money machine.
7553
06:27:51,920 --> 06:27:56,320
This was the birth of the securitization
7554
06:27:54,798 --> 06:27:58,718
market.
7555
06:27:56,320 --> 06:28:01,360
What Larry Frink helped create was more
7556
06:27:58,718 --> 06:28:04,920
than a financial product. It was a
7557
06:28:01,360 --> 06:28:04,920
structural shift.
7558
06:28:05,280 --> 06:28:10,240
Securitization didn't just bundle
7559
06:28:07,440 --> 06:28:11,760
mortgages. It separated risk from
7560
06:28:10,240 --> 06:28:14,000
reality.
7561
06:28:11,760 --> 06:28:16,000
For the first time, financial value
7562
06:28:14,000 --> 06:28:18,958
could travel faster than the underlying
7563
06:28:16,000 --> 06:28:20,878
economy that supported it. A house in
7564
06:28:18,958 --> 06:28:23,120
California became a line in a
7565
06:28:20,878 --> 06:28:26,718
spreadsheet in New York, which became a
7566
06:28:23,120 --> 06:28:28,718
yield sold to an investor in Tokyo. Risk
7567
06:28:26,718 --> 06:28:31,760
no longer lived where decisions were
7568
06:28:28,718 --> 06:28:34,080
made. It was abstracted, sliced,
7569
06:28:31,760 --> 06:28:36,958
repackaged, and distributed across the
7570
06:28:34,080 --> 06:28:39,200
system. This was the moment when finance
7571
06:28:36,958 --> 06:28:42,558
stopped reflecting the real economy and
7572
06:28:39,200 --> 06:28:44,878
began building a parallel one. A system
7573
06:28:42,558 --> 06:28:46,718
that could grow without limits as long
7574
06:28:44,878 --> 06:28:50,878
as everyone believed the models were
7575
06:28:46,718 --> 06:28:53,520
right. And for a while they were.
7576
06:28:50,878 --> 06:28:56,080
By the early 80s, Larry was the golden
7577
06:28:53,520 --> 06:28:58,558
boy. He wasn't just hitting targets, he
7578
06:28:56,080 --> 06:29:00,718
was shattering them. In one year, his
7579
06:28:58,558 --> 06:29:02,798
department was responsible for nearly
7580
06:29:00,718 --> 06:29:05,840
onethird of First Boston's total
7581
06:29:02,798 --> 06:29:08,080
profits. At age 31, he became the
7582
06:29:05,840 --> 06:29:11,120
youngest managing director the firm had
7583
06:29:08,080 --> 06:29:13,600
ever seen. He was earning millions. He
7584
06:29:11,120 --> 06:29:16,400
was the successor, the prodigy, the man
7585
06:29:13,600 --> 06:29:19,120
who could do no wrong. He had moved to
7586
06:29:16,400 --> 06:29:21,520
his family to a sprawling estate. He was
7587
06:29:19,120 --> 06:29:26,120
flying private. He had conquered the
7588
06:29:21,520 --> 06:29:26,120
grit cover battlefield of Manhattan.
7589
06:29:26,638 --> 06:29:31,040
But in the world of high finance, the
7590
06:29:28,798 --> 06:29:34,040
higher you fly, the thinner the air
7591
06:29:31,040 --> 06:29:34,040
becomes.
7592
06:29:35,600 --> 06:29:39,840
Larry was making hundreds of millions
7593
06:29:37,520 --> 06:29:42,718
for the bank, but there was a ghost in
7594
06:29:39,840 --> 06:29:46,638
the machine, a variable he hadn't
7595
06:29:42,718 --> 06:29:48,878
accounted for. The year was 1986.
7596
06:29:46,638 --> 06:29:51,680
Larry had made a massive bet on interest
7597
06:29:48,878 --> 06:29:55,200
rates. He believed they would stay
7598
06:29:51,680 --> 06:29:57,280
stable. He was so sure of his math, so
7599
06:29:55,200 --> 06:29:59,280
confident in his track record that he
7600
06:29:57,280 --> 06:30:01,520
didn't realize the ground was shifting
7601
06:29:59,280 --> 06:30:03,520
beneath his feet.
7602
06:30:01,520 --> 06:30:05,760
In just 3 months, the Golden Boys
7603
06:30:03,520 --> 06:30:09,600
department went from profit to a
7604
06:30:05,760 --> 06:30:12,718
catastrophic $100 million loss. In the
7605
06:30:09,600 --> 06:30:15,600
80s, 100 million wasn't just a loss. It
7606
06:30:12,718 --> 06:30:17,680
was a national scandal. Overnight, the
7607
06:30:15,600 --> 06:30:20,798
man who was supposed to run the bank was
7608
06:30:17,680 --> 06:30:22,798
a pariah. The phone stopped ringing. The
7609
06:30:20,798 --> 06:30:25,120
friends on the trading floor looked away
7610
06:30:22,798 --> 06:30:27,360
when he walked by. He had been the
7611
06:30:25,120 --> 06:30:30,160
smartest man in the room until he
7612
06:30:27,360 --> 06:30:32,400
wasn't. He would later describe this
7613
06:30:30,160 --> 06:30:35,600
moment as the most painful experience of
7614
06:30:32,400 --> 06:30:38,240
my life. But as he sat in the ruins of
7615
06:30:35,600 --> 06:30:40,638
his reputation, Larry Frink wasn't just
7616
06:30:38,240 --> 06:30:42,718
mourning his career. He was obsessed
7617
06:30:40,638 --> 06:30:45,680
with one question.
7618
06:30:42,718 --> 06:30:48,240
How did I not see the risk?
7619
06:30:45,680 --> 06:30:50,638
That obsession, the fear of the unknown
7620
06:30:48,240 --> 06:30:54,280
variable, would become the cornerstone
7621
06:30:50,638 --> 06:30:54,280
of Black Rockck.
7622
06:30:57,360 --> 06:31:03,600
By 1983, Larry wasn't just selling
7623
06:31:00,160 --> 06:31:08,040
bonds, he was a pioneer of the CMO,
7624
06:31:03,600 --> 06:31:08,040
collateralized mortgage obligation.
7625
06:31:08,240 --> 06:31:13,200
Think of it like a waterfall. Larry took
7626
06:31:11,040 --> 06:31:16,080
thousands of mortgages and sliced them
7627
06:31:13,200 --> 06:31:19,200
into tranches. Some investors took the
7628
06:31:16,080 --> 06:31:22,400
top slice, low risk, low reward. Others
7629
06:31:19,200 --> 06:31:24,240
took the bottom, high risk, high yield.
7630
06:31:22,400 --> 06:31:28,080
It was a masterpiece of financial
7631
06:31:24,240 --> 06:31:30,798
engineering. It made the illquid liquid.
7632
06:31:28,080 --> 06:31:33,120
It made first Boston the center of the
7633
06:31:30,798 --> 06:31:35,280
universe.
7634
06:31:33,120 --> 06:31:38,240
But there was a flaw, a tiny
7635
06:31:35,280 --> 06:31:40,240
mathematical ghost in his models.
7636
06:31:38,240 --> 06:31:42,558
Larry's team had predicted that interest
7637
06:31:40,240 --> 06:31:44,958
rates would rise and they hedged their
7638
06:31:42,558 --> 06:31:48,000
bets accordingly. But in the second
7639
06:31:44,958 --> 06:31:50,400
quarter of 1986, rates did something the
7640
06:31:48,000 --> 06:31:52,000
models said was impossible. They
7641
06:31:50,400 --> 06:31:53,760
plummeted
7642
06:31:52,000 --> 06:31:56,080
because they didn't have a system to
7643
06:31:53,760 --> 06:31:58,878
track their real-time exposure. Larry
7644
06:31:56,080 --> 06:32:01,920
was flying blind. He was the pilot of a
7645
06:31:58,878 --> 06:32:04,080
Boeing 747 trying to land in a storm
7646
06:32:01,920 --> 06:32:06,558
using nothing but a compass and a
7647
06:32:04,080 --> 06:32:08,558
prayer. By the time he realized the
7648
06:32:06,558 --> 06:32:12,638
engines were on fire, the plane had
7649
06:32:08,558 --> 06:32:16,040
already hit the mountain. $100 million.
7650
06:32:12,638 --> 06:32:16,040
All gone.
7651
06:32:18,160 --> 06:32:23,520
He wasn't just fired, he was erased.
7652
06:32:21,440 --> 06:32:26,558
After the dust settled, Larry found
7653
06:32:23,520 --> 06:32:29,520
himself in a peculiar kind of exile. He
7654
06:32:26,558 --> 06:32:32,320
wasn't just unemployed, he was haunted.
7655
06:32:29,520 --> 06:32:34,638
He realized that the $100 million loss
7656
06:32:32,320 --> 06:32:38,240
wasn't a failure of talent, it was a
7657
06:32:34,638 --> 06:32:40,958
failure of vision. What happened in 1986
7658
06:32:38,240 --> 06:32:44,000
wasn't a personal miscalculation.
7659
06:32:40,958 --> 06:32:46,320
It was a systemic blindness.
7660
06:32:44,000 --> 06:32:49,200
At the time, every major financial
7661
06:32:46,320 --> 06:32:52,240
institution operated the same way.
7662
06:32:49,200 --> 06:32:54,878
Positions were fragmented. Exposure was
7663
06:32:52,240 --> 06:32:58,000
estimated, not measured. Risk was
7664
06:32:54,878 --> 06:33:00,320
inferred after the fact. Banks knew what
7665
06:32:58,000 --> 06:33:03,360
they bought yesterday, but not what it
7666
06:33:00,320 --> 06:33:06,000
was worth right now. The system rewarded
7667
06:33:03,360 --> 06:33:08,478
speed, volume, and confidence, not
7668
06:33:06,000 --> 06:33:11,200
understanding. And as long as markets
7669
06:33:08,478 --> 06:33:13,600
moved slowly, the illusion held. But
7670
06:33:11,200 --> 06:33:16,558
once volatility entered the market, no
7671
06:33:13,600 --> 06:33:19,600
one truly knew where the danger was or
7672
06:33:16,558 --> 06:33:22,240
how large it had become. Larry didn't
7673
06:33:19,600 --> 06:33:24,240
just lose money. He realized the entire
7674
06:33:22,240 --> 06:33:27,200
financial system was flying without
7675
06:33:24,240 --> 06:33:30,240
instruments. Wall Street was essentially
7676
06:33:27,200 --> 06:33:34,240
a collection of blind giants. Every
7677
06:33:30,240 --> 06:33:36,240
major firm, Goldman, Layman, Meil Lynch
7678
06:33:34,240 --> 06:33:40,718
was standing just one inch away from
7679
06:33:36,240 --> 06:33:42,638
total collapse at any given second. Why?
7680
06:33:40,718 --> 06:33:45,520
Because they didn't actually know what
7681
06:33:42,638 --> 06:33:48,400
they owned. This was information
7682
06:33:45,520 --> 06:33:50,798
blindness.
7683
06:33:48,400 --> 06:33:53,120
In the 1980s, you knew what you bought
7684
06:33:50,798 --> 06:33:56,400
yesterday, but you had no idea what it
7685
06:33:53,120 --> 06:33:58,958
was worth right now. A sudden shift in
7686
06:33:56,400 --> 06:34:01,280
interest rates or a political coup
7687
06:33:58,958 --> 06:34:03,040
across the ocean could vaporize a
7688
06:34:01,280 --> 06:34:06,000
billion dollars before the morning
7689
06:34:03,040 --> 06:34:09,280
coffee was poured.
7690
06:34:06,000 --> 06:34:11,920
Larry understood a terrifying truth. The
7691
06:34:09,280 --> 06:34:15,200
entire global financial system was built
7692
06:34:11,920 --> 06:34:17,120
on a foundation of guesswork.
7693
06:34:15,200 --> 06:34:20,558
It hit him with the force of an
7694
06:34:17,120 --> 06:34:22,400
epiphany. If he could build a brain, a
7695
06:34:20,558 --> 06:34:24,798
machine that could see the risk that
7696
06:34:22,400 --> 06:34:27,600
humans were too slow to calculate, he
7697
06:34:24,798 --> 06:34:29,360
wouldn't just be a banker. He would be
7698
06:34:27,600 --> 06:34:32,240
the only man in the world with a
7699
06:34:29,360 --> 06:34:34,400
flashlight in a dark room. This
7700
06:34:32,240 --> 06:34:37,040
realization changed his entire
7701
06:34:34,400 --> 06:34:39,120
philosophy of investing. He stopped
7702
06:34:37,040 --> 06:34:41,760
looking for the big score and started
7703
06:34:39,120 --> 06:34:44,160
looking for the safe passage. He didn't
7704
06:34:41,760 --> 06:34:47,760
want to beat the market anymore. He
7705
06:34:44,160 --> 06:34:50,160
wanted to measure it.
7706
06:34:47,760 --> 06:34:53,440
He would later tell his partners, "We
7707
06:34:50,160 --> 06:34:57,040
are never going to be blind again." That
7708
06:34:53,440 --> 06:34:59,200
vow born from the humiliation of 1986
7709
06:34:57,040 --> 06:35:02,478
became the blueprint for a new kind of
7710
06:34:59,200 --> 06:35:04,958
firm. A firm that didn't rely on the ego
7711
06:35:02,478 --> 06:35:09,240
of a star trader, but on the cold,
7712
06:35:04,958 --> 06:35:09,240
unblinking eye of technology.
7713
06:35:14,000 --> 06:35:20,080
Larry Frink was a man with a vision, but
7714
06:35:16,798 --> 06:35:21,920
he was also a man with a tainted resume.
7715
06:35:20,080 --> 06:35:24,558
To the rest of Wall Street, he was the
7716
06:35:21,920 --> 06:35:26,718
guy who lost a h 100red million. But to
7717
06:35:24,558 --> 06:35:29,360
a small circle of insiders at First
7718
06:35:26,718 --> 06:35:32,718
Boston, he was the only one who truly
7719
06:35:29,360 --> 06:35:35,520
understood why it happened. He began
7720
06:35:32,718 --> 06:35:38,160
making calls. He wasn't offering high
7721
06:35:35,520 --> 06:35:40,958
salaries or flashy offices. He was
7722
06:35:38,160 --> 06:35:43,040
offering a chance to build a holy grail,
7723
06:35:40,958 --> 06:35:45,360
a financial firm where technology
7724
06:35:43,040 --> 06:35:48,400
governed the ego, not the other way
7725
06:35:45,360 --> 06:35:50,638
round. And he eventually found the right
7726
06:35:48,400 --> 06:35:53,638
people to help him build that holy
7727
06:35:50,638 --> 06:35:53,638
grail.
7728
06:35:54,240 --> 06:36:00,478
Rob Capito, the enforcer, a powerhouse
7729
06:35:58,320 --> 06:36:03,040
trader who knew the plumbing of the bomb
7730
06:36:00,478 --> 06:36:05,120
market better than anyone else. He
7731
06:36:03,040 --> 06:36:08,718
provided the muscle Larry needed to
7732
06:36:05,120 --> 06:36:11,840
execute the vision. Ben Golib, the
7733
06:36:08,718 --> 06:36:14,478
Oracle, a PhD with a mind like a
7734
06:36:11,840 --> 06:36:17,280
supercomput. While other bankers were
7735
06:36:14,478 --> 06:36:19,760
focused on lunch reservations, Golib was
7736
06:36:17,280 --> 06:36:22,478
thinking about value at risk and Monte
7737
06:36:19,760 --> 06:36:26,000
Carlo simulations.
7738
06:36:22,478 --> 06:36:28,400
Susan Wagner, the mastermind,
7739
06:36:26,000 --> 06:36:30,000
brilliant, calculating, and capable of
7740
06:36:28,400 --> 06:36:32,240
seeing structural flaws in a
7741
06:36:30,000 --> 06:36:34,558
multi-billion dollar merger before a
7742
06:36:32,240 --> 06:36:37,200
single paper was signed. Along with
7743
06:36:34,558 --> 06:36:39,840
Barbara Novik, Ralph Schllostein, Q
7744
06:36:37,200 --> 06:36:42,798
Freigha, and Keith Anderson, they became
7745
06:36:39,840 --> 06:36:44,638
the original eight. Frink wasn't looking
7746
06:36:42,798 --> 06:36:48,000
for bankers who would run after the
7747
06:36:44,638 --> 06:36:50,798
money. He wanted architects, people who
7748
06:36:48,000 --> 06:36:52,798
were tired of being blind.
7749
06:36:50,798 --> 06:36:55,440
When he found them, they met in living
7750
06:36:52,798 --> 06:36:57,280
rooms and coffee shops. They had the
7751
06:36:55,440 --> 06:37:00,320
blueprints for a system they called
7752
06:36:57,280 --> 06:37:03,040
Aladdin, an acronym for asset,
7753
06:37:00,320 --> 06:37:06,080
liability, debt, and derivative
7754
06:37:03,040 --> 06:37:08,558
investment network. It was designed to
7755
06:37:06,080 --> 06:37:10,718
be the unblinking eye Larry had dreamed
7756
06:37:08,558 --> 06:37:12,798
of in his exile.
7757
06:37:10,718 --> 06:37:15,760
But a brain without a body is just a
7758
06:37:12,798 --> 06:37:19,120
dream. To build Aladdin, they needed
7759
06:37:15,760 --> 06:37:20,878
hardware. They needed offices. And most
7760
06:37:19,120 --> 06:37:23,440
importantly, they needed the one thing
7761
06:37:20,878 --> 06:37:26,000
Larry's reputation had cost him.
7762
06:37:23,440 --> 06:37:28,240
Capital. Aladdin was not designed to
7763
06:37:26,000 --> 06:37:30,638
beat the market. It was designed to
7764
06:37:28,240 --> 06:37:33,520
understand it. But its real power
7765
06:37:30,638 --> 06:37:36,798
emerged when others started using it.
7766
06:37:33,520 --> 06:37:39,920
Banks, insurance companies, pension
7767
06:37:36,798 --> 06:37:42,080
funds, sovereign institutions. As
7768
06:37:39,920 --> 06:37:45,520
Aladdin spread, something subtle
7769
06:37:42,080 --> 06:37:48,638
happened. Risk stopped being subjective.
7770
06:37:45,520 --> 06:37:51,200
It became standardized. When Aladdin
7771
06:37:48,638 --> 06:37:55,240
flagged an asset as dangerous, entire
7772
06:37:51,200 --> 06:37:55,240
markets adjusted accordingly.
7773
06:37:55,360 --> 06:38:00,638
Not because Larry Frink said so, but
7774
06:37:57,760 --> 06:38:02,558
because the system trusted the model. At
7775
06:38:00,638 --> 06:38:05,040
that point, Black Rockck was no longer
7776
06:38:02,558 --> 06:38:08,080
just managing money. It was helping
7777
06:38:05,040 --> 06:38:10,478
define how risk itself was understood.
7778
06:38:08,080 --> 06:38:14,680
And whoever defines risk defines the
7779
06:38:10,478 --> 06:38:14,680
boundaries of decision making.
7780
06:38:22,718 --> 06:38:28,080
Enter Steven Schwartzman. In 1988,
7781
06:38:26,000 --> 06:38:31,280
Schwartzman was the rising king of
7782
06:38:28,080 --> 06:38:34,958
private equity. His firm Blackstone was
7783
06:38:31,280 --> 06:38:37,600
aggressive, wealthy, and hungry.
7784
06:38:34,958 --> 06:38:40,638
The meeting was tense. Schwartzman knew
7785
06:38:37,600 --> 06:38:44,160
Larry's history. He knew about the 1986
7786
06:38:40,638 --> 06:38:47,840
disaster. But Larry didn't hide from it.
7787
06:38:44,160 --> 06:38:49,840
He used it as his primary selling point.
7788
06:38:47,840 --> 06:38:52,240
Because Larry had seen the end of the
7789
06:38:49,840 --> 06:38:54,798
world already, he knew exactly how the
7790
06:38:52,240 --> 06:38:56,558
lights went out. And because of that, he
7791
06:38:54,798 --> 06:38:58,718
was the only one who knew how to keep
7792
06:38:56,558 --> 06:39:01,440
them on.
7793
06:38:58,718 --> 06:39:03,440
Larry's pitch was revolutionary. He
7794
06:39:01,440 --> 06:39:06,320
didn't want to start a hedge fund. He
7795
06:39:03,440 --> 06:39:08,400
wanted to create a fiduciary company.
7796
06:39:06,320 --> 06:39:10,558
a firm that managed other people's money
7797
06:39:08,400 --> 06:39:13,200
with the same technological rigor
7798
06:39:10,558 --> 06:39:15,840
usually reserved for NASA.
7799
06:39:13,200 --> 06:39:18,320
He asked for a $5 million credit line
7800
06:39:15,840 --> 06:39:20,798
and a partnership. In exchange,
7801
06:39:18,320 --> 06:39:23,520
Schwartzman would own 50% of the new
7802
06:39:20,798 --> 06:39:25,440
venture. He knew he was buying cheap
7803
06:39:23,520 --> 06:39:29,120
because he was buying on a distressed
7804
06:39:25,440 --> 06:39:31,040
asset, Think's damaged reputation.
7805
06:39:29,120 --> 06:39:33,120
But he did so betting on the idea that
7806
06:39:31,040 --> 06:39:37,760
the experience had turned Larry Frink
7807
06:39:33,120 --> 06:39:41,040
into some sort of financial genius.
7808
06:39:37,760 --> 06:39:43,680
The deal was done. On a Friday in March
7809
06:39:41,040 --> 06:39:45,520
1988, the team moved into a single
7810
06:39:43,680 --> 06:39:47,120
cramped room within Blackstone's
7811
06:39:45,520 --> 06:39:49,760
offices.
7812
06:39:47,120 --> 06:39:51,840
They were five computers, a few folding
7813
06:39:49,760 --> 06:39:54,478
chairs, and a mountain of cables on the
7814
06:39:51,840 --> 06:39:56,798
floor. They were under the Blackstone
7815
06:39:54,478 --> 06:39:59,360
umbrella, but Larry knew that this was
7816
06:39:56,798 --> 06:40:02,798
just a temporary shelter. He didn't just
7817
06:39:59,360 --> 06:40:05,440
want a department. He wanted an empire.
7818
06:40:02,798 --> 06:40:07,600
He had the money. He had the team. And
7819
06:40:05,440 --> 06:40:09,680
in the corner of that small room, the
7820
06:40:07,600 --> 06:40:12,478
first lines of code for Aladdin were
7821
06:40:09,680 --> 06:40:15,440
being written.
7822
06:40:12,478 --> 06:40:17,440
The information blindness was over. The
7823
06:40:15,440 --> 06:40:21,878
era of Black Rock, though it didn't have
7824
06:40:17,440 --> 06:40:21,878
that name yet, had begun.
7825
06:40:26,000 --> 06:40:31,200
The first office of Blackstone Financial
7826
06:40:28,320 --> 06:40:34,160
Management wasn't a glass tower. It was
7827
06:40:31,200 --> 06:40:36,400
a glorified closet. Because of the heat
7828
06:40:34,160 --> 06:40:38,160
generated by the early Sun Micro
7829
06:40:36,400 --> 06:40:39,920
Systemystems workstations, the
7830
06:40:38,160 --> 06:40:44,400
temperature in the room rarely dropped
7831
06:40:39,920 --> 06:40:46,240
below 80°, 27° C.
7832
06:40:44,400 --> 06:40:48,638
While the rest of the Blackstone group
7833
06:40:46,240 --> 06:40:51,120
was out at expensive lunches closing
7834
06:40:48,638 --> 06:40:55,520
leveraged buyouts, Larry's original
7835
06:40:51,120 --> 06:40:57,840
eight were building a digital fortress.
7836
06:40:55,520 --> 06:41:00,240
They were the weirdos in the basement.
7837
06:40:57,840 --> 06:41:04,000
It was here that the name Aladdin became
7838
06:41:00,240 --> 06:41:06,478
a living thing. Every day, Benol and his
7839
06:41:04,000 --> 06:41:09,600
team fed it data. Interest rates,
7840
06:41:06,478 --> 06:41:11,360
housing prices, historical crashes. They
7841
06:41:09,600 --> 06:41:16,760
were teaching the machine to be afraid
7842
06:41:11,360 --> 06:41:16,760
of everything Larry hadn't seen in 1986.
7843
06:41:20,400 --> 06:41:25,600
By 1992, the department inside
7844
06:41:23,040 --> 06:41:28,320
Blackstone was no longer a startup. It
7845
06:41:25,600 --> 06:41:31,680
was a powerhouse. Larry's team was
7846
06:41:28,320 --> 06:41:33,280
managing $17 billion.
7847
06:41:31,680 --> 06:41:35,600
They weren't just a side project
7848
06:41:33,280 --> 06:41:38,558
anymore. They were a significant engine
7849
06:41:35,600 --> 06:41:41,040
of Blackstone's growth. But with success
7850
06:41:38,558 --> 06:41:43,200
came a toxic byproduct,
7851
06:41:41,040 --> 06:41:45,840
identity confusion.
7852
06:41:43,200 --> 06:41:47,520
Clients were getting confused. They
7853
06:41:45,840 --> 06:41:50,000
would call Blackstone looking for
7854
06:41:47,520 --> 06:41:52,478
Larry's bond expertise or called Larry
7855
06:41:50,000 --> 06:41:54,958
looking for Schwarzman's buyouts. But
7856
06:41:52,478 --> 06:41:57,600
the friction went deeper than a name. It
7857
06:41:54,958 --> 06:42:00,160
was a war of philosophies. Schwartzman
7858
06:41:57,600 --> 06:42:03,440
was a dealmaker. He wanted to own
7859
06:42:00,160 --> 06:42:06,878
companies. Think was a fiduciary. He
7860
06:42:03,440 --> 06:42:09,040
wanted to manage risk for others.
7861
06:42:06,878 --> 06:42:11,360
The tension was similar to having two
7862
06:42:09,040 --> 06:42:13,760
predators in a cage too small to fit
7863
06:42:11,360 --> 06:42:16,878
both. The breaking point came over
7864
06:42:13,760 --> 06:42:19,120
equity. Larry wanted to use stock to
7865
06:42:16,878 --> 06:42:22,320
attract and keep the original eight and
7866
06:42:19,120 --> 06:42:24,478
new talent. Schwarzman, holding 50% of
7867
06:42:22,320 --> 06:42:26,958
the firm, didn't want to dilute his
7868
06:42:24,478 --> 06:42:29,120
state. The partnership that saved
7869
06:42:26,958 --> 06:42:35,120
Larry's career was now suffocating his
7870
06:42:29,120 --> 06:42:37,200
vision. In 1994, they reached a deal.
7871
06:42:35,120 --> 06:42:41,120
Schwarzman agreed to sell Blackstone
7872
06:42:37,200 --> 06:42:43,200
steak for $240 million. At the time, it
7873
06:42:41,120 --> 06:42:45,360
seemed like a win for Schwarzman, a
7874
06:42:43,200 --> 06:42:48,240
massive return on his $5 million
7875
06:42:45,360 --> 06:42:50,638
investment. It wasn't just about money.
7876
06:42:48,240 --> 06:42:52,878
It was about the spotlight. Schwarzman
7877
06:42:50,638 --> 06:42:55,360
was the king of Wall Street, but his
7878
06:42:52,878 --> 06:42:57,920
subtenant, Larry Frink, was the one the
7879
06:42:55,360 --> 06:43:01,280
New York Times wanted to interview. But
7880
06:42:57,920 --> 06:43:03,520
for Larry, it was the price of freedom.
7881
06:43:01,280 --> 06:43:05,840
Schwarzman would later call selling
7882
06:43:03,520 --> 06:43:08,558
Black Rockck the worst mistake of my
7883
06:43:05,840 --> 06:43:11,120
career. For Larry, the divorce was the
7884
06:43:08,558 --> 06:43:13,680
moment the training wheels came off. He
7885
06:43:11,120 --> 06:43:16,638
was no longer under anyone's umbrella.
7886
06:43:13,680 --> 06:43:18,320
He was the CEO of an independent firm.
7887
06:43:16,638 --> 06:43:20,160
Now he just had to prove he could
7888
06:43:18,320 --> 06:43:23,160
survive the coming storm of the late
7889
06:43:20,160 --> 06:43:23,160
'90s.
7890
06:43:30,958 --> 06:43:36,798
It is 2008. The financial world was
7891
06:43:34,240 --> 06:43:39,040
experiencing a heart attack. The
7892
06:43:36,798 --> 06:43:41,360
financial smoothies that mortgage back
7893
06:43:39,040 --> 06:43:43,680
securities Larry had helped create 30
7894
06:43:41,360 --> 06:43:46,400
years earlier had turned into a global
7895
06:43:43,680 --> 06:43:48,798
poison. Banks didn't know what they
7896
06:43:46,400 --> 06:43:51,360
owned, and more importantly, they didn't
7897
06:43:48,798 --> 06:43:53,440
know what their neighbors owned. Trust
7898
06:43:51,360 --> 06:43:55,440
had evaporated.
7899
06:43:53,440 --> 06:43:57,200
When the US government realized the
7900
06:43:55,440 --> 06:43:59,280
economy was on the brink of a total
7901
06:43:57,200 --> 06:44:03,200
blackout, they didn't call Goldman
7902
06:43:59,280 --> 06:44:05,600
Sachs. They didn't call JP Morgan. While
7903
06:44:03,200 --> 06:44:07,520
the CEOs of Layman and Merrill were
7904
06:44:05,600 --> 06:44:09,680
begging for government checks, Larry
7905
06:44:07,520 --> 06:44:11,920
Frink was the one the government called
7906
06:44:09,680 --> 06:44:14,160
to write the checks.
7907
06:44:11,920 --> 06:44:16,638
He was the only titan left standing with
7908
06:44:14,160 --> 06:44:18,718
a clean balance sheet.
7909
06:44:16,638 --> 06:44:20,798
The United States government didn't just
7910
06:44:18,718 --> 06:44:22,638
seek advice, it delegated
7911
06:44:20,798 --> 06:44:24,638
responsibility.
7912
06:44:22,638 --> 06:44:27,520
Black Robb was tasked with valuing
7913
06:44:24,638 --> 06:44:29,760
assets no one understood, managing risks
7914
06:44:27,520 --> 06:44:31,680
no one could measure and stabilizing
7915
06:44:29,760 --> 06:44:34,240
markets that were collapsing in real
7916
06:44:31,680 --> 06:44:36,558
time.
7917
06:44:34,240 --> 06:44:39,680
This wasn't a bailout. It was an
7918
06:44:36,558 --> 06:44:41,440
outsourcing of core sovereign functions.
7919
06:44:39,680 --> 06:44:43,520
For the first time, a private firm
7920
06:44:41,440 --> 06:44:46,478
played a central role in maintaining
7921
06:44:43,520 --> 06:44:48,400
global financial stability, not through
7922
06:44:46,478 --> 06:44:50,878
political authority, but through
7923
06:44:48,400 --> 06:44:53,440
technical capability.
7924
06:44:50,878 --> 06:44:56,320
From that moment on, power was no longer
7925
06:44:53,440 --> 06:44:58,320
just about laws and institutions. It was
7926
06:44:56,320 --> 06:45:00,558
about who had the tools to see the
7927
06:44:58,320 --> 06:45:02,400
system clearly.
7928
06:45:00,558 --> 06:45:05,520
Black Rockck was hired to manage the
7929
06:45:02,400 --> 06:45:07,200
toxic waste of the crisis. They became
7930
06:45:05,520 --> 06:45:10,558
the official cleaner for the US
7931
06:45:07,200 --> 06:45:14,040
government, managing $130 billion of
7932
06:45:10,558 --> 06:45:14,040
troubled assets.
7933
06:45:14,080 --> 06:45:18,798
Suddenly, Larry Frink was the most
7934
06:45:16,478 --> 06:45:20,558
powerful man in the room, acting as an
7935
06:45:18,798 --> 06:45:22,080
adviser to the president and the
7936
06:45:20,558 --> 06:45:24,478
treasury.
7937
06:45:22,080 --> 06:45:27,280
But while he was saving the system, he
7938
06:45:24,478 --> 06:45:29,520
saw a once-ina-lifetime opportunity to
7939
06:45:27,280 --> 06:45:32,000
dominate it. In the middle of the
7940
06:45:29,520 --> 06:45:34,798
carnage, Barclay's bank in the UK was
7941
06:45:32,000 --> 06:45:37,120
desperate for cash. They needed to sell
7942
06:45:34,798 --> 06:45:39,120
their crown jewel, a division called
7943
06:45:37,120 --> 06:45:41,520
Barclay's Global Investors, which
7944
06:45:39,120 --> 06:45:43,280
included a revolutionary product called
7945
06:45:41,520 --> 06:45:45,200
Eyesshares.
7946
06:45:43,280 --> 06:45:48,000
Eyessshares represented passive
7947
06:45:45,200 --> 06:45:51,040
investing, ETFs that track the whole
7948
06:45:48,000 --> 06:45:52,958
market rather than trying to beat it. It
7949
06:45:51,040 --> 06:45:55,680
was the ultimate expression of Larry's
7950
06:45:52,958 --> 06:45:58,240
philosophy. Stop betting on stars and
7951
06:45:55,680 --> 06:46:02,638
start owning the system. It was a
7952
06:45:58,240 --> 06:46:05,040
massive $13.5 billion gamble.
7953
06:46:02,638 --> 06:46:07,760
If the markets continue to fall, deal
7954
06:46:05,040 --> 06:46:10,000
could sink Black Rockck. But Larry knew
7955
06:46:07,760 --> 06:46:12,000
something the others didn't. He had
7956
06:46:10,000 --> 06:46:14,240
looked into the eye of Aladdin, and
7957
06:46:12,000 --> 06:46:17,040
Aladdin told him that the bottom was
7958
06:46:14,240 --> 06:46:20,000
near. With the acquisition of Eyesshares
7959
06:46:17,040 --> 06:46:22,718
in 2009, Black Rockck doubled its size
7960
06:46:20,000 --> 06:46:25,440
overnight. They weren't just a bond shop
7961
06:46:22,718 --> 06:46:28,400
anymore. They were now the largest money
7962
06:46:25,440 --> 06:46:31,040
manager on the planet. They had gone
7963
06:46:28,400 --> 06:46:33,200
into the crisis as a respected firm.
7964
06:46:31,040 --> 06:46:37,000
They came out of it as the shadow
7965
06:46:33,200 --> 06:46:37,000
government of finance.
7966
06:46:41,680 --> 06:46:46,958
By 2012, Larry Frink had built the
7967
06:46:44,240 --> 06:46:49,600
machine. He had the assets, the data,
7968
06:46:46,958 --> 06:46:52,878
and the influence. But he realized that
7969
06:46:49,600 --> 06:46:54,798
being king of Wall Street wasn't enough.
7970
06:46:52,878 --> 06:46:58,000
He wanted to change the way the world
7971
06:46:54,798 --> 06:46:59,840
did business. Every January, a ritual
7972
06:46:58,000 --> 06:47:02,958
began that would send tremors through
7973
06:46:59,840 --> 06:47:05,280
boardrooms from Detroit to Frankfurt.
7974
06:47:02,958 --> 06:47:07,840
Larry started writing letters. They
7975
06:47:05,280 --> 06:47:11,638
weren't just annual reports. They were
7976
06:47:07,840 --> 06:47:11,638
the Black Rockck Manifestos.
7977
06:47:12,320 --> 06:47:18,320
In 2018, he dropped a bomb. He told the
7978
06:47:16,080 --> 06:47:20,478
world's CEOs that if they wanted Black
7979
06:47:18,320 --> 06:47:23,520
Rockck's money, they had to prove they
7980
06:47:20,478 --> 06:47:26,320
served a social purpose. He wasn't just
7981
06:47:23,520 --> 06:47:30,320
asking for profits. He was asking for a
7982
06:47:26,320 --> 06:47:33,200
soul. He was mainstreaming ESG,
7983
06:47:30,320 --> 06:47:36,400
environmental, social, and governance.
7984
06:47:33,200 --> 06:47:39,440
And he was doing it with a $10 trillion
7985
06:47:36,400 --> 06:47:42,958
hammer. But Larry's new gospel didn't
7986
06:47:39,440 --> 06:47:44,878
sit well with everyone. By 2021, the
7987
06:47:42,958 --> 06:47:48,478
Golden Boy was finding himself in the
7988
06:47:44,878 --> 06:47:51,680
middle of a two-front war.
7989
06:47:48,478 --> 06:47:55,520
The ESG debate was never cultural. It
7990
06:47:51,680 --> 06:47:57,440
was economic. At its core, ESG was about
7991
06:47:55,520 --> 06:48:00,000
risk management, anticipating
7992
06:47:57,440 --> 06:48:02,240
regulation, climate disruption, and
7993
06:48:00,000 --> 06:48:04,400
social instability.
7994
06:48:02,240 --> 06:48:07,280
For Black Rockck, ignoring those factors
7995
06:48:04,400 --> 06:48:09,840
wasn't neutral. It was dangerous. But
7996
06:48:07,280 --> 06:48:12,558
when capital begins to price the future,
7997
06:48:09,840 --> 06:48:15,360
it also begins to shape it. That's why
7998
06:48:12,558 --> 06:48:18,320
the backlash was so intense.
7999
06:48:15,360 --> 06:48:20,160
To the left, Larry was a hypocrite. They
8000
06:48:18,320 --> 06:48:22,400
called him a greenwasher because Black
8001
06:48:20,160 --> 06:48:24,958
Rockck still held billions in oil and
8002
06:48:22,400 --> 06:48:27,040
gas stocks. To the right, he was a
8003
06:48:24,958 --> 06:48:28,958
globalist villain who was using other
8004
06:48:27,040 --> 06:48:31,840
people's money to push a radical
8005
06:48:28,958 --> 06:48:33,840
environmental agenda. The backlash
8006
06:48:31,840 --> 06:48:36,840
turned into a full-scale political
8007
06:48:33,840 --> 06:48:36,840
assault.
8008
06:48:36,958 --> 06:48:41,680
State treasurers in Florida, Texas, and
8009
06:48:39,360 --> 06:48:44,320
Mississippi began pulling billions out
8010
06:48:41,680 --> 06:48:46,958
of Black Rockck. They accused Larry of
8011
06:48:44,320 --> 06:48:49,200
boycotting energy and violating his duty
8012
06:48:46,958 --> 06:48:51,040
to investors.
8013
06:48:49,200 --> 06:48:53,760
For the first time, the man who had
8014
06:48:51,040 --> 06:48:59,080
mastered risk found himself in a risk he
8015
06:48:53,760 --> 06:48:59,080
couldn't calculate, the culture war.
8016
06:49:00,558 --> 06:49:05,440
He told a crowd in Aspen that he was
8017
06:49:02,798 --> 06:49:07,680
ashamed to be a part of the debate. He
8018
06:49:05,440 --> 06:49:10,558
even stopped using the term ESG
8019
06:49:07,680 --> 06:49:12,478
altogether, calling it weaponized.
8020
06:49:10,558 --> 06:49:15,200
He had tried to become the conscience of
8021
06:49:12,478 --> 06:49:18,080
capitalism. Instead, it became its most
8022
06:49:15,200 --> 06:49:20,080
controversial target. But even as the
8023
06:49:18,080 --> 06:49:25,040
politicians shouted and the protesters
8024
06:49:20,080 --> 06:49:26,798
marched, the assets kept growing.
8025
06:49:25,040 --> 06:49:28,798
Because in the end, whether you loved
8026
06:49:26,798 --> 06:49:32,840
him or hated him, you couldn't escape
8027
06:49:28,798 --> 06:49:32,840
the machine he built.
8028
06:49:40,718 --> 06:49:45,280
January 2026,
8029
06:49:42,958 --> 06:49:46,958
the number flashes on a terminal in
8030
06:49:45,280 --> 06:49:48,478
Black Rockck's Hudson Yards
8031
06:49:46,958 --> 06:49:50,958
headquarters.
8032
06:49:48,478 --> 06:49:54,160
$14 trillion.
8033
06:49:50,958 --> 06:49:55,760
It is a number so vast it defies human
8034
06:49:54,160 --> 06:49:58,160
comprehension.
8035
06:49:55,760 --> 06:50:00,718
If Larry Frink's assets under management
8036
06:49:58,160 --> 06:50:02,718
were a country's GDP, it would be the
8037
06:50:00,718 --> 06:50:05,200
third largest economy on Earth,
8038
06:50:02,718 --> 06:50:06,798
surpassed only by the United States and
8039
06:50:05,200 --> 06:50:09,040
China.
8040
06:50:06,798 --> 06:50:11,840
But as Larry looks out from his office,
8041
06:50:09,040 --> 06:50:13,760
he isn't looking at stock tickers. He is
8042
06:50:11,840 --> 06:50:16,760
looking at the very bones of
8043
06:50:13,760 --> 06:50:16,760
civilization.
8044
06:50:18,320 --> 06:50:24,718
In 2024, Larry made his final most
8045
06:50:21,760 --> 06:50:27,200
aggressive pivot. He realized that the
8046
06:50:24,718 --> 06:50:30,000
next decade won't be one with bits on a
8047
06:50:27,200 --> 06:50:33,200
screen, but with atoms in the ground.
8048
06:50:30,000 --> 06:50:35,680
With the 12.5 billion acquisition of
8049
06:50:33,200 --> 06:50:37,920
global infrastructure partners, Larry
8050
06:50:35,680 --> 06:50:41,440
signaled the end of the old Wall Street
8051
06:50:37,920 --> 06:50:43,920
era. Larry saw the AI revolution coming.
8052
06:50:41,440 --> 06:50:46,000
But he didn't buy the chip makers. He
8053
06:50:43,920 --> 06:50:49,000
bought the power plants that feed the
8054
06:50:46,000 --> 06:50:49,000
chips.
8055
06:50:51,920 --> 06:50:58,920
But every empire faces the same
8056
06:50:53,920 --> 06:50:58,920
inevitable question. Succession.
8057
06:51:00,320 --> 06:51:04,638
For years, Wall Street has whispered
8058
06:51:02,400 --> 06:51:07,920
about who could possibly replace the man
8059
06:51:04,638 --> 06:51:10,240
who is Black Rockck. Names like Rob
8060
06:51:07,920 --> 06:51:12,638
Capito, Mark Weberman, and Jennifer
8061
06:51:10,240 --> 06:51:15,680
Johnson swirl in the press. But the
8062
06:51:12,638 --> 06:51:18,400
truth is more complex. Larry hasn't just
8063
06:51:15,680 --> 06:51:20,638
built a company. He's built an organism.
8064
06:51:18,400 --> 06:51:23,520
A system where Aladdin, now a very
8065
06:51:20,638 --> 06:51:26,638
sophisticated AI entity, handles the
8066
06:51:23,520 --> 06:51:29,440
risk while a legion of 20,000 employees,
8067
06:51:26,638 --> 06:51:31,840
executes the vision. Aladdin is no
8068
06:51:29,440 --> 06:51:33,840
longer just a calculator. It is a
8069
06:51:31,840 --> 06:51:36,558
predictive engine that runs millions of
8070
06:51:33,840 --> 06:51:38,400
simulations every second, anticipating
8071
06:51:36,558 --> 06:51:42,240
everything from a war in the Middle East
8072
06:51:38,400 --> 06:51:44,638
to a crop failure in Brazil.
8073
06:51:42,240 --> 06:51:47,840
Some call him the king of the world.
8074
06:51:44,638 --> 06:51:50,080
Others call him the shadow architect.
8075
06:51:47,840 --> 06:51:52,160
But if you ask Larry, he'll tell you
8076
06:51:50,080 --> 06:51:54,400
he's still that kid from the Van Noise
8077
06:51:52,160 --> 06:51:58,520
shoe store, just trying to make sure
8078
06:51:54,400 --> 06:51:58,520
that the maths add up.
8079
06:51:58,798 --> 06:52:03,120
He took the greatest humiliation of his
8080
06:52:00,798 --> 06:52:05,120
life and turned it into a shield for the
8081
06:52:03,120 --> 06:52:07,200
global economy.
8082
06:52:05,120 --> 06:52:09,840
He taught the world that profit without
8083
06:52:07,200 --> 06:52:14,958
a plan is just a gamble and that in the
8084
06:52:09,840 --> 06:52:17,040
dark, the man with a flashlight is king.
8085
06:52:14,958 --> 06:52:20,000
There is one financial question the
8086
06:52:17,040 --> 06:52:22,638
system cannot answer. What happens when
8087
06:52:20,000 --> 06:52:24,958
everyone measures risk the same way?
8088
06:52:22,638 --> 06:52:27,360
When models converge. When assumptions
8089
06:52:24,958 --> 06:52:29,120
align. When diversity of judgment
8090
06:52:27,360 --> 06:52:31,360
disappears.
8091
06:52:29,120 --> 06:52:34,320
A system optimized for stability can
8092
06:52:31,360 --> 06:52:36,320
become fragile. Not because it is wrong
8093
06:52:34,320 --> 06:52:37,920
but because it leaves no room for the
8094
06:52:36,320 --> 06:52:40,080
unexpected.
8095
06:52:37,920 --> 06:52:42,558
When the supervisor becomes invisible
8096
06:52:40,080 --> 06:52:45,680
and the rules are embedded in code,
8097
06:52:42,558 --> 06:52:48,958
accountability becomes harder to locate,
8098
06:52:45,680 --> 06:52:50,878
the system works until it doesn't. And
8099
06:52:48,958 --> 06:52:53,440
that's why Blackprop isn't just a
8100
06:52:50,878 --> 06:52:56,080
shareholder in your company. They are
8101
06:52:53,440 --> 06:52:58,878
the landlord of your power plant, the
8102
06:52:56,080 --> 06:53:01,200
owner of your airport, the architect of
8103
06:52:58,878 --> 06:53:03,200
your retirement. It is a level of
8104
06:53:01,200 --> 06:53:06,000
centralized influence the world has
8105
06:53:03,200 --> 06:53:08,478
never seen in a private individual.
8106
06:53:06,000 --> 06:53:11,360
Lawrence D.Fink didn't just build a
8107
06:53:08,478 --> 06:53:13,040
bank. He built the unblinking eye of
8108
06:53:11,360 --> 06:53:15,280
capitalism.
8109
06:53:13,040 --> 06:53:17,440
And as the world moves into the era of
8110
06:53:15,280 --> 06:53:20,320
AI, climate shift, and global
8111
06:53:17,440 --> 06:53:23,680
restructuring, one thing is certain.
8112
06:53:20,320 --> 06:53:28,200
Black Rockck will be there, watching,
8113
06:53:23,680 --> 06:53:28,200
calculating, and growing.
8114
06:54:48,320 --> 06:54:53,360
It's just a small plastic brick.
8115
06:54:51,840 --> 06:54:58,478
Lightweight,
8116
06:54:53,360 --> 06:55:02,798
simple, unchanged since 1958.
8117
06:54:58,478 --> 06:55:04,878
And yet, it has built entire universes.
8118
06:55:02,798 --> 06:55:07,360
Lego constructions truly take us back to
8119
06:55:04,878 --> 06:55:09,120
childhood.
8120
06:55:07,360 --> 06:55:11,680
But they stay with us throughout our
8121
06:55:09,120 --> 06:55:14,080
entire lives. From bedrooms to
8122
06:55:11,680 --> 06:55:18,320
boardrooms, from playgrounds to
8123
06:55:14,080 --> 06:55:20,718
Hollywood, Lego has shaped generations.
8124
06:55:18,320 --> 06:55:22,558
>> When I design something from scratch, I
8125
06:55:20,718 --> 06:55:24,958
start with an idea that occurs to me at
8126
06:55:22,558 --> 06:55:26,798
any time of day.
8127
06:55:24,958 --> 06:55:29,760
>> I try to build it with Lego and see what
8128
06:55:26,798 --> 06:55:33,840
I come up with. In a global toy market
8129
06:55:29,760 --> 06:55:36,558
worth more than $120 billion, LEGO
8130
06:55:33,840 --> 06:55:39,600
stands alone. A single company
8131
06:55:36,558 --> 06:55:41,920
controlling nearly one in every $10
8132
06:55:39,600 --> 06:55:44,080
spent on toys worldwide.
8133
06:55:41,920 --> 06:55:45,680
>> LEGO holds a leading position worldwide,
8134
06:55:44,080 --> 06:55:47,360
recognized above all for its
8135
06:55:45,680 --> 06:55:49,520
playability.
8136
06:55:47,360 --> 06:55:53,600
>> What if the most beloved toy in the
8137
06:55:49,520 --> 06:55:56,000
world almost didn't exist?
8138
06:55:53,600 --> 06:55:58,638
Discover the incredible journey of a
8139
06:55:56,000 --> 06:56:00,638
small, struggling carpentry shop. The
8140
06:55:58,638 --> 06:56:02,558
dared to dream bigger than anyone
8141
06:56:00,638 --> 06:56:05,040
thought possible.
8142
06:56:02,558 --> 06:56:08,160
>> This is the untold story of the
8143
06:56:05,040 --> 06:56:11,200
visionary who built Lego.
8144
06:56:08,160 --> 06:56:14,478
Transforming simple wooden bricks into a
8145
06:56:11,200 --> 06:56:17,360
multibillion dollar empire and forever
8146
06:56:14,478 --> 06:56:19,600
changing how we play.
8147
06:56:17,360 --> 06:56:22,798
But none of this began with billiondoll
8148
06:56:19,600 --> 06:56:26,718
charts or cinematic universes.
8149
06:56:22,798 --> 06:56:29,920
It began with a carpenter with a vision.
8150
06:56:26,718 --> 06:56:33,120
In a tiny Danish village, one man had a
8151
06:56:29,920 --> 06:56:36,120
dream. Building toys out of scraps of
8152
06:56:33,120 --> 06:56:36,120
wood.
8153
06:56:42,320 --> 06:56:49,120
Ole Kirk Christensen was born in 1891 in
8154
06:56:46,160 --> 06:56:53,120
western Denmark, a place defined by
8155
06:56:49,120 --> 06:56:55,840
silence, soil, and hard work.
8156
06:56:53,120 --> 06:56:58,000
He grew up poor, like most children in
8157
06:56:55,840 --> 06:56:59,360
the Jutland countryside.
8158
06:56:58,000 --> 06:57:02,000
But he learned the value of
8159
06:56:59,360 --> 06:57:05,520
craftsmanship early. When you made
8160
06:57:02,000 --> 06:57:08,240
something, it had to last.
8161
06:57:05,520 --> 06:57:10,478
He apprenticed as a carpenter. It was
8162
06:57:08,240 --> 06:57:14,080
not a really glamorous work, but
8163
06:57:10,478 --> 06:57:17,440
meticulous, honest, a craft that matched
8164
06:57:14,080 --> 06:57:19,840
Ola's character and manners.
8165
06:57:17,440 --> 06:57:23,280
Ola traveled through Denmark, Germany,
8166
06:57:19,840 --> 06:57:26,718
and Norway. Everywhere he went, he left
8167
06:57:23,280 --> 06:57:28,798
a reputation. Precise, patient,
8168
06:57:26,718 --> 06:57:32,400
relentless.
8169
06:57:28,798 --> 06:57:34,400
In 1916, Ole returned home and bought a
8170
06:57:32,400 --> 06:57:38,718
workshop in a place that barely existed
8171
06:57:34,400 --> 06:57:41,280
on the map. Bund. No shops, no train
8172
06:57:38,718 --> 06:57:43,280
station, just a handful of families
8173
06:57:41,280 --> 06:57:45,120
trying to survive the Danish winds.
8174
06:57:43,280 --> 06:57:48,240
>> Don't worry, I'm fine. I'm fine.
8175
06:57:45,120 --> 06:57:50,400
>> But 8 years later, disaster struck.
8176
06:57:48,240 --> 06:57:53,440
>> Oh. Oh. Oh no.
8177
06:57:50,400 --> 06:57:54,080
>> In 1924, a fire tore through his
8178
06:57:53,440 --> 06:57:56,958
workshop.
8179
06:57:54,080 --> 06:57:58,558
>> Oh god. No. Please no. Oh my god.
8180
06:57:56,958 --> 06:58:02,878
>> Everything burned.
8181
06:57:58,558 --> 06:58:06,240
tools, wood, orders, and a lifetime of
8182
06:58:02,878 --> 06:58:10,320
savings, all gone.
8183
06:58:06,240 --> 06:58:12,958
But Olair didn't quit. He rebuilt and
8184
06:58:10,320 --> 06:58:15,520
rebuilt bigger than before. Not because
8185
06:58:12,958 --> 06:58:19,440
it was safe, but because he refused to
8186
06:58:15,520 --> 06:58:22,320
let Bill disappear into the wind.
8187
06:58:19,440 --> 06:58:24,958
Then came the Great Depression. Houses
8188
06:58:22,320 --> 06:58:28,878
weren't being built. Doors weren't being
8189
06:58:24,958 --> 06:58:31,600
ordered. Bills weren't being paid.
8190
06:58:28,878 --> 06:58:34,558
Oair had workers depending on him,
8191
06:58:31,600 --> 06:58:37,520
families depending on him. So, he did
8192
06:58:34,558 --> 06:58:39,840
something unexpected. He began crafting
8193
06:58:37,520 --> 06:58:42,958
small wooden toys.
8194
06:58:39,840 --> 06:58:44,958
They were simple, durable, and
8195
06:58:42,958 --> 06:58:47,920
beautiful.
8196
06:58:44,958 --> 06:58:51,680
Locals mocked him. A grown man making
8197
06:58:47,920 --> 06:58:54,958
toys for children. You'll never survive.
8198
06:58:51,680 --> 06:58:56,958
But Ola believed that play and fun was a
8199
06:58:54,958 --> 06:59:00,080
serious business.
8200
06:58:56,958 --> 06:59:03,760
In 1934, he held a contest to name the
8201
06:59:00,080 --> 06:59:07,440
new toy company. He chose a short word,
8202
06:59:03,760 --> 06:59:11,120
Lego. It was not only a simple idea, but
8203
06:59:07,440 --> 06:59:13,920
a philosophy and a promise.
8204
06:59:11,120 --> 06:59:16,558
He hung a sign in the workshop. Only the
8205
06:59:13,920 --> 06:59:21,638
best is good enough. It wasn't
8206
06:59:16,558 --> 06:59:21,638
marketing. It was his identity.
8207
06:59:23,520 --> 06:59:26,798
Oh god, not again.
8208
06:59:25,040 --> 06:59:30,240
>> In 1942,
8209
06:59:26,798 --> 06:59:32,798
Ola faced another fire. This time it was
8210
06:59:30,240 --> 06:59:36,400
bigger, more devastating. Every
8211
06:59:32,798 --> 06:59:38,958
blueprint, every toy, every dream he had
8212
06:59:36,400 --> 06:59:41,760
turned into smoke.
8213
06:59:38,958 --> 06:59:45,360
But he had built himself the hardship.
8214
06:59:41,760 --> 06:59:48,478
And once more, he rebuilt the factory
8215
06:59:45,360 --> 06:59:52,478
stronger than the two previous ones.
8216
06:59:48,478 --> 06:59:54,558
In 1947, at the worst economic moment,
8217
06:59:52,478 --> 06:59:57,520
Ola made the riskiest choice of his
8218
06:59:54,558 --> 06:59:59,680
life. He spent more than twice the
8219
06:59:57,520 --> 07:00:02,478
company's annual profits on a strange
8220
06:59:59,680 --> 07:00:05,520
new machine, one that worked not with
8221
07:00:02,478 --> 07:00:08,160
wood, but with plastic.
8222
07:00:05,520 --> 07:00:10,558
Retailers hated plastic. Parents
8223
07:00:08,160 --> 07:00:14,400
distrusted it. But Ola saw something
8224
07:00:10,558 --> 07:00:16,798
they didn't. Precision, repeatability,
8225
07:00:14,400 --> 07:00:19,040
and possibilities. Endless
8226
07:00:16,798 --> 07:00:22,400
possibilities.
8227
07:00:19,040 --> 07:00:24,558
Only 2 years later, in 1949,
8228
07:00:22,400 --> 07:00:27,840
LEGO released the first plastic bricks
8229
07:00:24,558 --> 07:00:30,638
of its history. They didn't click. They
8230
07:00:27,840 --> 07:00:33,638
weren't perfect, but they were the
8231
07:00:30,638 --> 07:00:33,638
beginning.
8232
07:00:37,920 --> 07:00:42,240
>> The idea was good, but Ola and his team
8233
07:00:40,478 --> 07:00:44,558
faced setbacks while designing the
8234
07:00:42,240 --> 07:00:47,760
bricks that had cemented Lego's identity
8235
07:00:44,558 --> 07:00:50,958
through the years. The plastic bricks
8236
07:00:47,760 --> 07:00:53,040
didn't grip. This was a major problem
8237
07:00:50,958 --> 07:00:55,760
for a building set because buildings
8238
07:00:53,040 --> 07:00:59,200
collapsed. Towers fell in front of their
8239
07:00:55,760 --> 07:01:03,680
eyes. Apparently, Lego wasn't created to
8240
07:00:59,200 --> 07:01:05,920
build. And then in 1958,
8241
07:01:03,680 --> 07:01:08,240
everything changed.
8242
07:01:05,920 --> 07:01:10,240
>> Unlike 20 years ago, LEGO today allows
8243
07:01:08,240 --> 07:01:12,558
us to build many more things because
8244
07:01:10,240 --> 07:01:15,878
they have released more realistic colors
8245
07:01:12,558 --> 07:01:15,878
and shapes.
8246
07:01:16,240 --> 07:01:21,040
In the past, the pieces were mostly
8247
07:01:18,320 --> 07:01:23,040
square. Today, there is a much wider
8248
07:01:21,040 --> 07:01:25,200
variety of shapes, including more
8249
07:01:23,040 --> 07:01:28,000
rounded elements, which allow us to
8250
07:01:25,200 --> 07:01:29,760
create more ergonomic forms, ones that
8251
07:01:28,000 --> 07:01:32,080
more closely resemble the kinds of
8252
07:01:29,760 --> 07:01:34,240
buildings and structures we see in
8253
07:01:32,080 --> 07:01:37,280
everyday life.
8254
07:01:34,240 --> 07:01:40,478
>> Engineers at LEGO perfected a simple but
8255
07:01:37,280 --> 07:01:42,478
ingenious solution. hollow tubes inside
8256
07:01:40,478 --> 07:01:44,798
the brick.
8257
07:01:42,478 --> 07:01:47,360
Paired with the studs on top, the
8258
07:01:44,798 --> 07:01:51,200
geometry created what LEGO calls clutch
8259
07:01:47,360 --> 07:01:53,440
power. Not too tight, not too loose,
8260
07:01:51,200 --> 07:01:55,360
just perfect.
8261
07:01:53,440 --> 07:01:58,000
This was not just an adjustment or
8262
07:01:55,360 --> 07:02:01,120
improvement. It was the birth of what we
8263
07:01:58,000 --> 07:02:03,760
know today as a Lego brick. The brick
8264
07:02:01,120 --> 07:02:05,760
that today can still be used with the
8265
07:02:03,760 --> 07:02:07,840
modern ones.
8266
07:02:05,760 --> 07:02:11,360
the brick that was the foundation of a
8267
07:02:07,840 --> 07:02:14,798
company that still makes history today.
8268
07:02:11,360 --> 07:02:16,798
That same year, Lego filed the patent.
8269
07:02:14,798 --> 07:02:19,040
They had something worth protecting, and
8270
07:02:16,798 --> 07:02:22,240
Ollie knew that sooner or later, it
8271
07:02:19,040 --> 07:02:25,920
would be replicated.
8272
07:02:22,240 --> 07:02:29,600
It was January the 28th, 1958 when the
8273
07:02:25,920 --> 07:02:32,240
patent was filed. Later that year, Ole
8274
07:02:29,600 --> 07:02:35,520
Christensen passed away.
8275
07:02:32,240 --> 07:02:39,320
And sadly, he never lived to see how far
8276
07:02:35,520 --> 07:02:39,320
his brick would travel.
8277
07:02:46,798 --> 07:02:52,320
After his father died, Godfred Kerr
8278
07:02:49,440 --> 07:02:54,558
Christensen stepped in. He wasn't
8279
07:02:52,320 --> 07:02:57,600
inheriting the company. He was
8280
07:02:54,558 --> 07:03:00,080
inheriting a philosophy, one he had been
8281
07:02:57,600 --> 07:03:02,718
raised with. His father wasn't around
8282
07:03:00,080 --> 07:03:04,798
anymore, but the original spirit of Lego
8283
07:03:02,718 --> 07:03:06,798
lived on in the second Christensen
8284
07:03:04,798 --> 07:03:09,120
generation.
8285
07:03:06,798 --> 07:03:11,280
But he also had something to add.
8286
07:03:09,120 --> 07:03:14,638
Godfred believed Lego should be more
8287
07:03:11,280 --> 07:03:16,958
than toys. It should be a system. A
8288
07:03:14,638 --> 07:03:20,878
system where every piece connected with
8289
07:03:16,958 --> 07:03:22,958
every other piece across every set.
8290
07:03:20,878 --> 07:03:24,798
This created a language of creativity
8291
07:03:22,958 --> 07:03:28,000
and possibilities.
8292
07:03:24,798 --> 07:03:30,478
And a single idea changed everything.
8293
07:03:28,000 --> 07:03:34,400
Suddenly, LEGO wasn't a collection of
8294
07:03:30,478 --> 07:03:36,878
toys, but an entire universe.
8295
07:03:34,400 --> 07:03:38,878
The company began to grow far beyond its
8296
07:03:36,878 --> 07:03:42,638
original frontiers.
8297
07:03:38,878 --> 07:03:47,360
During the 1960s and '7s, Lego expanded
8298
07:03:42,638 --> 07:03:50,160
across Europe, Germany, Sweden, the UK.
8299
07:03:47,360 --> 07:03:53,600
Bund, once a small village, became a
8300
07:03:50,160 --> 07:03:56,240
global hub of play. Lego then built its
8301
07:03:53,600 --> 07:03:58,478
own airport, factories, and distribution
8302
07:03:56,240 --> 07:04:01,200
centers. In the world of construction
8303
07:03:58,478 --> 07:04:03,920
toys, we know that Lego isn't the only
8304
07:04:01,200 --> 07:04:08,400
brand around.
8305
07:04:03,920 --> 07:04:11,040
What Lego provides is a quality product.
8306
07:04:08,400 --> 07:04:13,920
Maybe one part is wrong for every 10,000
8307
07:04:11,040 --> 07:04:16,718
or 100,000 items. And if you are missing
8308
07:04:13,920 --> 07:04:18,878
an item from a box, or if it is faulty,
8309
07:04:16,718 --> 07:04:20,320
the company's after sales service will
8310
07:04:18,878 --> 07:04:23,718
not question the fact that you are
8311
07:04:20,320 --> 07:04:23,718
missing a part.
8312
07:04:24,478 --> 07:04:30,798
And then the magic happened.
8313
07:04:28,160 --> 07:04:35,040
LEGO introduced something no toy company
8314
07:04:30,798 --> 07:04:38,878
had done at scale. Fully themed worlds.
8315
07:04:35,040 --> 07:04:40,160
Space town castles.
8316
07:04:38,878 --> 07:04:42,638
Children weren't just building
8317
07:04:40,160 --> 07:04:44,478
structures anymore. They were building
8318
07:04:42,638 --> 07:04:48,080
stories.
8319
07:04:44,478 --> 07:04:50,000
In 1978, LEGO released its most iconic
8320
07:04:48,080 --> 07:04:51,520
invention since the brick, the
8321
07:04:50,000 --> 07:04:54,558
minifigure.
8322
07:04:51,520 --> 07:04:58,400
It had a simple face, hands shaped like
8323
07:04:54,558 --> 07:05:01,120
a sea, and feet made to stand on studs.
8324
07:04:58,400 --> 07:05:04,080
A tiny character that let kids project
8325
07:05:01,120 --> 07:05:07,120
themselves into entire universes.
8326
07:05:04,080 --> 07:05:08,638
Stories now had heroes, and Lego had a
8327
07:05:07,120 --> 07:05:11,760
heartbeat.
8328
07:05:08,638 --> 07:05:14,478
In the late 1970s, Lego was already run
8329
07:05:11,760 --> 07:05:17,920
by the third Christensen generation.
8330
07:05:14,478 --> 07:05:20,240
Ole's grandson killed began shaping the
8331
07:05:17,920 --> 07:05:23,600
company into the global powerhouse we
8332
07:05:20,240 --> 07:05:26,240
know today. He did so by creating more
8333
07:05:23,600 --> 07:05:29,520
sophisticated lines, bringing in new
8334
07:05:26,240 --> 07:05:31,920
universes, technic brought mechanics,
8335
07:05:29,520 --> 07:05:34,878
pirates brought adventure, and trains
8336
07:05:31,920 --> 07:05:37,280
brought motion. By the late 20th
8337
07:05:34,878 --> 07:05:40,320
century, the global toy market was
8338
07:05:37,280 --> 07:05:42,400
becoming massive. Tens of billions of
8339
07:05:40,320 --> 07:05:44,798
dollars a year worth.
8340
07:05:42,400 --> 07:05:47,600
The United States spent more on toys
8341
07:05:44,798 --> 07:05:50,478
than any country on Earth. And China
8342
07:05:47,600 --> 07:05:52,558
produced most of them, nearly 3/4 of the
8343
07:05:50,478 --> 07:05:55,440
world's total.
8344
07:05:52,558 --> 07:06:01,400
In this booming landscape, Lego wasn't
8345
07:05:55,440 --> 07:06:01,400
just another toy. It was the toy.
8346
07:06:06,000 --> 07:06:11,840
By the late 1990s, Lego was flying high.
8347
07:06:09,840 --> 07:06:14,000
It had become one of the most admired
8348
07:06:11,840 --> 07:06:16,160
companies in Europe. A creative
8349
07:06:14,000 --> 07:06:18,638
powerhouse built on the philosophy of
8350
07:06:16,160 --> 07:06:20,638
imagination and creation. We're not
8351
07:06:18,638 --> 07:06:22,400
focused only on childhood, but on
8352
07:06:20,638 --> 07:06:24,718
something that has quite literally built
8353
07:06:22,400 --> 07:06:26,878
us, pun intended, shaping our
8354
07:06:24,718 --> 07:06:29,520
personalities through Lego from an early
8355
07:06:26,878 --> 07:06:33,840
age. Those memories became a foundation
8356
07:06:29,520 --> 07:06:35,760
we've kept building on over time.
8357
07:06:33,840 --> 07:06:37,680
That's why exhibitions like this bring
8358
07:06:35,760 --> 07:06:40,638
us straight back to childhood. The
8359
07:06:37,680 --> 07:06:42,718
audience here is very diverse, but once
8360
07:06:40,638 --> 07:06:45,040
people walk in, they all become the boy
8361
07:06:42,718 --> 07:06:47,920
or girl they once were.
8362
07:06:45,040 --> 07:06:50,240
>> But it's not all gold that glitters.
8363
07:06:47,920 --> 07:06:53,200
Under the surface, something dangerous
8364
07:06:50,240 --> 07:06:55,440
was creeping in. The toy market was
8365
07:06:53,200 --> 07:06:57,440
changing fast. Children were spending
8366
07:06:55,440 --> 07:06:59,840
more and more time with video games and
8367
07:06:57,440 --> 07:07:02,080
early computer entertainment.
8368
07:06:59,840 --> 07:07:04,240
Sony's PlayStation, Nintendo, and
8369
07:07:02,080 --> 07:07:07,600
Hasbro's electronic toys were capturing
8370
07:07:04,240 --> 07:07:12,000
attention. And Lego, determined not to
8371
07:07:07,600 --> 07:07:14,478
fall behind, expanded too far, too fast.
8372
07:07:12,000 --> 07:07:16,718
Throughout the 1990s, LEGO began
8373
07:07:14,478 --> 07:07:19,520
introducing thousands of completely new
8374
07:07:16,718 --> 07:07:22,478
pieces, specialized parts that not only
8375
07:07:19,520 --> 07:07:26,240
worked in one set. A single year could
8376
07:07:22,478 --> 07:07:28,400
bring more than 350 new designs. Each of
8377
07:07:26,240 --> 07:07:30,878
them costing tens of thousands of
8378
07:07:28,400 --> 07:07:33,040
dollars in steel machining and precision
8379
07:07:30,878 --> 07:07:34,958
engineering.
8380
07:07:33,040 --> 07:07:37,280
In 2002,
8381
07:07:34,958 --> 07:07:40,240
Lego had more than 12,000 active
8382
07:07:37,280 --> 07:07:42,638
elements. The system of play, once
8383
07:07:40,240 --> 07:07:46,000
simple and universal, was becoming
8384
07:07:42,638 --> 07:07:48,958
chaotic and difficult to follow. LEGO
8385
07:07:46,000 --> 07:07:51,120
also tried becoming a lifestyle brand.
8386
07:07:48,958 --> 07:07:54,240
New ventures appeared everywhere.
8387
07:07:51,120 --> 07:07:56,478
Clothing lines, theme parks, homegoods,
8388
07:07:54,240 --> 07:07:58,160
cartoon series, even watches and
8389
07:07:56,478 --> 07:08:00,080
sneakers.
8390
07:07:58,160 --> 07:08:02,718
But these projects drained resources
8391
07:08:00,080 --> 07:08:04,478
without reinforcing the core product.
8392
07:08:02,718 --> 07:08:08,240
the brick.
8393
07:08:04,478 --> 07:08:10,638
And between 1999 and 2003,
8394
07:08:08,240 --> 07:08:12,718
LEGO sales collapsed.
8395
07:08:10,638 --> 07:08:15,440
During these years, the company went
8396
07:08:12,718 --> 07:08:18,718
from doubledigit growth to struggling.
8397
07:08:15,440 --> 07:08:22,000
And by 2003, the company was losing the
8398
07:08:18,718 --> 07:08:24,958
equivalent of $1 million a day. In a
8399
07:08:22,000 --> 07:08:28,718
global toy market still worth more than
8400
07:08:24,958 --> 07:08:31,120
$70 billion US at the time, Lego, once
8401
07:08:28,718 --> 07:08:33,600
the king of the toy box, was only a few
8402
07:08:31,120 --> 07:08:36,638
steps away from bankruptcy.
8403
07:08:33,600 --> 07:08:40,958
Times were dark, but a spark of genius
8404
07:08:36,638 --> 07:08:43,280
appeared. In 1999, LEGO signed its first
8405
07:08:40,958 --> 07:08:45,120
ever licensing deal with no other than
8406
07:08:43,280 --> 07:08:48,160
Lucasfilm.
8407
07:08:45,120 --> 07:08:51,440
The timing was perfect. Star Wars
8408
07:08:48,160 --> 07:08:54,240
Episode 1 was about to hit theaters.
8409
07:08:51,440 --> 07:08:57,280
Hype was global and the first Lego Star
8410
07:08:54,240 --> 07:09:00,478
Wars sets were instant hits, not just
8411
07:08:57,280 --> 07:09:02,558
with children, with adults. Collectors
8412
07:09:00,478 --> 07:09:04,638
lined up to buy the X-wing, the
8413
07:09:02,558 --> 07:09:07,920
Snowspeeder, or the first Millennium
8414
07:09:04,638 --> 07:09:10,798
Falcon. For the first time in LEGO's
8415
07:09:07,920 --> 07:09:13,600
history, adults, including those in
8416
07:09:10,798 --> 07:09:14,478
their 30s and 40s, were buying sets for
8417
07:09:13,600 --> 07:09:16,400
themselves.
8418
07:09:14,478 --> 07:09:19,120
>> The adult fan of Lego community is
8419
07:09:16,400 --> 07:09:21,200
getting bigger. This is because Lego is
8420
07:09:19,120 --> 07:09:23,760
not the same as it was 20 or 30 years
8421
07:09:21,200 --> 07:09:26,080
ago.
8422
07:09:23,760 --> 07:09:27,920
Before, Lego was only seen as a toy to
8423
07:09:26,080 --> 07:09:30,920
play with when it was cold and you were
8424
07:09:27,920 --> 07:09:30,920
indoors.
8425
07:09:31,280 --> 07:09:36,080
Today, Lego is much more than a toy.
8426
07:09:33,680 --> 07:09:38,400
It's used to create logos to design
8427
07:09:36,080 --> 07:09:41,360
dynamic group activities. And it also
8428
07:09:38,400 --> 07:09:43,600
represents a shift in how we see it.
8429
07:09:41,360 --> 07:09:46,000
years ago, if you said you played with
8430
07:09:43,600 --> 07:09:48,478
Lego or built Lego, you almost had to
8431
07:09:46,000 --> 07:09:50,240
explain yourself that you were at home
8432
07:09:48,478 --> 07:09:53,040
playing with little figures making up
8433
07:09:50,240 --> 07:09:54,878
battles. What we do today is different.
8434
07:09:53,040 --> 07:09:58,638
We come together as a community of
8435
07:09:54,878 --> 07:10:00,478
adults, and Lego has recognized that.
8436
07:09:58,638 --> 07:10:02,798
That's why more and more products are
8437
07:10:00,478 --> 07:10:05,440
now designed specifically for adults,
8438
07:10:02,798 --> 07:10:08,440
more complex to build, and also more
8439
07:10:05,440 --> 07:10:08,440
expensive.
8440
07:10:09,600 --> 07:10:15,360
This kid demographic would later become
8441
07:10:12,320 --> 07:10:18,240
one of LEGO's most profitable segments.
8442
07:10:15,360 --> 07:10:21,440
More licenses followed Harry Potter,
8443
07:10:18,240 --> 07:10:23,440
Spider-Man, Batman, Indiana Jones, and
8444
07:10:21,440 --> 07:10:25,120
later the newest Marvel Cinematic
8445
07:10:23,440 --> 07:10:26,718
Universe.
8446
07:10:25,120 --> 07:10:30,160
Even though LEGO learned that
8447
07:10:26,718 --> 07:10:33,440
storytelling sells, in 2004, losses were
8448
07:10:30,160 --> 07:10:35,920
mounting and survival was uncertain.
8449
07:10:33,440 --> 07:10:37,440
And then the company made a radical
8450
07:10:35,920 --> 07:10:39,760
decision.
8451
07:10:37,440 --> 07:10:42,160
For the first time in its history, the
8452
07:10:39,760 --> 07:10:46,160
company appointed a CEO from outside the
8453
07:10:42,160 --> 07:10:49,760
Christensen family, Jurgen Victor, a
8454
07:10:46,160 --> 07:10:53,680
35-year-old former McKenzie consultant.
8455
07:10:49,760 --> 07:10:57,280
He was calm, precise, analytical,
8456
07:10:53,680 --> 07:11:01,120
and brutally honest. His diagnosis was
8457
07:10:57,280 --> 07:11:02,958
simple. Lego had forgotten what made it
8458
07:11:01,120 --> 07:11:05,200
Lego.
8459
07:11:02,958 --> 07:11:07,440
Kutto cut the number of unique elements
8460
07:11:05,200 --> 07:11:09,840
by nearly 50%.
8461
07:11:07,440 --> 07:11:13,040
He sold off the theme parks. He shut
8462
07:11:09,840 --> 07:11:15,200
down unprofitable production facilities.
8463
07:11:13,040 --> 07:11:17,840
He centralized supply chains,
8464
07:11:15,200 --> 07:11:20,160
standardized materials, and brought back
8465
07:11:17,840 --> 07:11:22,958
discipline to the system. But more
8466
07:11:20,160 --> 07:11:26,520
important, he put the brick back at the
8467
07:11:22,958 --> 07:11:26,520
center of the company.
8468
07:11:28,240 --> 07:11:33,120
This turnaround didn't happen in
8469
07:11:30,080 --> 07:11:36,400
isolation. The global toy industry was
8470
07:11:33,120 --> 07:11:38,958
undergoing a seismic change. China was
8471
07:11:36,400 --> 07:11:41,520
producing nearly 75% of the world's
8472
07:11:38,958 --> 07:11:44,638
toys, being the largest manufacturing
8473
07:11:41,520 --> 07:11:46,718
consolidation in toy history.
8474
07:11:44,638 --> 07:11:49,360
Meanwhile, the United States had become
8475
07:11:46,718 --> 07:11:51,520
the single largest consumer, responsible
8476
07:11:49,360 --> 07:11:54,520
for nearly onethird of the global toy
8477
07:11:51,520 --> 07:11:54,520
spending.
8478
07:11:54,798 --> 07:12:02,160
By 2005, the toy market was worth close
8479
07:11:58,400 --> 07:12:05,280
to $80 billion US. But it was brutally
8480
07:12:02,160 --> 07:12:08,080
competitive as well. Seasonality was
8481
07:12:05,280 --> 07:12:10,718
extreme. Nearly half of the annual toy
8482
07:12:08,080 --> 07:12:13,280
sales occurred in just 3 months from
8483
07:12:10,718 --> 07:12:16,320
October to December.
8484
07:12:13,280 --> 07:12:18,478
Companies lived or died by Christmas.
8485
07:12:16,320 --> 07:12:21,280
Mattel was battling declining Barbie
8486
07:12:18,478 --> 07:12:22,718
sales. Hasbro was betting its future on
8487
07:12:21,280 --> 07:12:24,320
Transformers and board game
8488
07:12:22,718 --> 07:12:26,160
reinventions.
8489
07:12:24,320 --> 07:12:29,040
Electronics were eating market share
8490
07:12:26,160 --> 07:12:33,520
across every age group. In this
8491
07:12:29,040 --> 07:12:39,400
scenario, Lego rebuilt and refocused and
8492
07:12:33,520 --> 07:12:39,400
then began rising above all of them.
8493
07:12:42,638 --> 07:12:50,240
Between 2008 and 2015, LEGO entered a
8494
07:12:46,878 --> 07:12:53,120
new era, a renaissance driven by design,
8495
07:12:50,240 --> 07:12:55,280
storytelling, digital engagement, and
8496
07:12:53,120 --> 07:12:57,200
adult passion.
8497
07:12:55,280 --> 07:13:00,080
The company launched the ultimate
8498
07:12:57,200 --> 07:13:03,600
collector series, producing the largest,
8499
07:13:00,080 --> 07:13:05,840
most detailed models in toy history.
8500
07:13:03,600 --> 07:13:09,040
LEGO architecture brought landmarks to
8501
07:13:05,840 --> 07:13:11,600
coffee tables. Modular buildings turned
8502
07:13:09,040 --> 07:13:13,760
living rooms into miniature cities, and
8503
07:13:11,600 --> 07:13:16,878
adults were no longer hiding their Lego
8504
07:13:13,760 --> 07:13:19,280
hobby, but embracing it. My story with
8505
07:13:16,878 --> 07:13:21,520
Lego began in the early '9s when I was a
8506
07:13:19,280 --> 07:13:23,680
small child.
8507
07:13:21,520 --> 07:13:25,520
I started playing, but then I stopped
8508
07:13:23,680 --> 07:13:27,200
for a while.
8509
07:13:25,520 --> 07:13:29,600
This is what most of us want to do when
8510
07:13:27,200 --> 07:13:33,878
we are teenagers to do other hobbies and
8511
07:13:29,600 --> 07:13:33,878
spend less time playing with Lego.
8512
07:13:34,478 --> 07:13:39,840
After that, when I was in my early 20s,
8513
07:13:36,400 --> 07:13:41,920
I started collecting Lego. I met people
8514
07:13:39,840 --> 07:13:44,558
from the Valencian community and founded
8515
07:13:41,920 --> 07:13:46,400
Valre.
8516
07:13:44,558 --> 07:13:48,958
That eventually led me to a television
8517
07:13:46,400 --> 07:13:51,200
show where I took part and won. From
8518
07:13:48,958 --> 07:13:54,680
there, companies began approaching me to
8519
07:13:51,200 --> 07:13:54,680
develop projects.
8520
07:13:56,000 --> 07:13:59,600
At first, this hadn't even occurred to
8521
07:13:57,920 --> 07:14:02,080
me,
8522
07:13:59,600 --> 07:14:04,320
but I started to see a growing demand.
8523
07:14:02,080 --> 07:14:06,478
Whether it was building a corporate kit,
8524
07:14:04,320 --> 07:14:09,760
like a transport company's truck, or
8525
07:14:06,478 --> 07:14:11,520
even a company's logistics headquarters,
8526
07:14:09,760 --> 07:14:13,520
this market opened up a professional
8527
07:14:11,520 --> 07:14:15,520
path for me.
8528
07:14:13,520 --> 07:14:18,958
It supports me financially, but more
8529
07:14:15,520 --> 07:14:20,878
importantly, it's deeply rewarding.
8530
07:14:18,958 --> 07:14:22,558
Many of these projects challenge me to
8531
07:14:20,878 --> 07:14:24,080
build things I would never choose on my
8532
07:14:22,558 --> 07:14:26,798
own.
8533
07:14:24,080 --> 07:14:28,718
But once a challenge is set, build this,
8534
07:14:26,798 --> 07:14:31,520
my mind immediately starts collecting
8535
07:14:28,718 --> 07:14:33,520
ideas, figuring out how to shape them
8536
07:14:31,520 --> 07:14:37,320
and bring the project to life in the
8537
07:14:33,520 --> 07:14:37,320
best possible way.
8538
07:14:43,920 --> 07:14:51,120
fan events, engineering cups, a global
8539
07:14:47,040 --> 07:14:54,638
movement emerged. By 2014, adults
8540
07:14:51,120 --> 07:14:57,120
accounted for nearly 1/3 of LEGO sales.
8541
07:14:54,638 --> 07:14:59,360
>> To anyone who thinks Lego is only for
8542
07:14:57,120 --> 07:15:00,958
children, I'd say come and see the
8543
07:14:59,360 --> 07:15:02,798
exhibition.
8544
07:15:00,958 --> 07:15:05,520
See what we're capable of creating with
8545
07:15:02,798 --> 07:15:09,520
Lego pieces and how imagination develops
8546
07:15:05,520 --> 07:15:11,680
in both children and adults.
8547
07:15:09,520 --> 07:15:14,558
Children work within certain limits and
8548
07:15:11,680 --> 07:15:17,200
see things differently, but adults with
8549
07:15:14,558 --> 07:15:19,920
a wider range of colors, shapes, and
8550
07:15:17,200 --> 07:15:23,040
ways to use the pieces can explore just
8551
07:15:19,920 --> 07:15:25,040
how much is possible.
8552
07:15:23,040 --> 07:15:27,920
>> It was a radical shift in the economics
8553
07:15:25,040 --> 07:15:29,840
of play. And then came the cultural
8554
07:15:27,920 --> 07:15:32,878
explosion.
8555
07:15:29,840 --> 07:15:36,400
In 2014, The Lego Movie shattered
8556
07:15:32,878 --> 07:15:39,280
expectations, earning nearly$500 million
8557
07:15:36,400 --> 07:15:42,160
US at the box office.
8558
07:15:39,280 --> 07:15:45,760
What started as a toy was now pop
8559
07:15:42,160 --> 07:15:47,920
culture. By the mid 2010s,
8560
07:15:45,760 --> 07:15:50,878
LEGO was the world's most valuable toy
8561
07:15:47,920 --> 07:15:53,600
company, even surpassing Mattel, Hasbro,
8562
07:15:50,878 --> 07:15:56,080
and every other competitor.
8563
07:15:53,600 --> 07:15:59,600
The brick that started it all was no
8564
07:15:56,080 --> 07:16:02,600
longer just a product. It was a global
8565
07:15:59,600 --> 07:16:02,600
icon.
8566
07:16:04,478 --> 07:16:08,798
The LEGO Group stands today as one of
8567
07:16:06,798 --> 07:16:10,798
the most efficient, profitable, and
8568
07:16:08,798 --> 07:16:12,958
culturally influential toy companies on
8569
07:16:10,798 --> 07:16:15,600
Earth. Its factories run with
8570
07:16:12,958 --> 07:16:17,760
nearperfect precision.
8571
07:16:15,600 --> 07:16:20,878
Its design teams develop thousands of
8572
07:16:17,760 --> 07:16:22,878
prototypes each year. Its supply chain
8573
07:16:20,878 --> 07:16:25,760
delivers billions of bricks that must
8574
07:16:22,878 --> 07:16:27,600
all fit together flawlessly across
8575
07:16:25,760 --> 07:16:30,240
decades.
8576
07:16:27,600 --> 07:16:34,320
In a global toy market worth roughly
8577
07:16:30,240 --> 07:16:38,558
$120 billion a year, Lego commands
8578
07:16:34,320 --> 07:16:41,520
nearly 9% of all worldwide toy sales. No
8579
07:16:38,558 --> 07:16:44,320
other toy brand, not Barbie, not Marvel
8580
07:16:41,520 --> 07:16:46,478
figures, not Nintendo merchandise,
8581
07:16:44,320 --> 07:16:50,240
maintains such consistency across
8582
07:16:46,478 --> 07:16:52,240
continents, genders, and generations.
8583
07:16:50,240 --> 07:16:55,360
And unlike most toy companies that
8584
07:16:52,240 --> 07:16:56,718
outsource manufacturing, LEGO controls a
8585
07:16:55,360 --> 07:16:59,920
significant portion of its own
8586
07:16:56,718 --> 07:17:02,478
production with major hubs in Denmark,
8587
07:16:59,920 --> 07:17:04,478
Hungary, Mexico, China, and the Czech
8588
07:17:02,478 --> 07:17:07,200
Republic.
8589
07:17:04,478 --> 07:17:09,760
This vertical integration reduces risk,
8590
07:17:07,200 --> 07:17:11,680
stabilizes quality, and protects one of
8591
07:17:09,760 --> 07:17:14,958
the most important values in the
8592
07:17:11,680 --> 07:17:17,280
company's DNA, precision.
8593
07:17:14,958 --> 07:17:19,600
Every Lego brick must be manufactured
8594
07:17:17,280 --> 07:17:22,718
with tolerances thinner than a strand of
8595
07:17:19,600 --> 07:17:26,240
hair. If the clutch is too tight, the
8596
07:17:22,718 --> 07:17:29,360
model breaks. If it's too loose, towers
8597
07:17:26,240 --> 07:17:32,878
collapse. Across billions of pieces,
8598
07:17:29,360 --> 07:17:36,240
perfection is not an ambition. It is an
8599
07:17:32,878 --> 07:17:38,240
engineering reality for LEGO.
8600
07:17:36,240 --> 07:17:40,400
This level of detail gives the company
8601
07:17:38,240 --> 07:17:43,120
one of the highest brand trust ratings
8602
07:17:40,400 --> 07:17:45,680
in the world. Parents know the bricks
8603
07:17:43,120 --> 07:17:48,478
will last. Adults know the sets will
8604
07:17:45,680 --> 07:17:50,798
impress. Collectors know the investment
8605
07:17:48,478 --> 07:17:53,040
will hold value.
8606
07:17:50,798 --> 07:17:55,760
The modern toy market is a machine of
8607
07:17:53,040 --> 07:17:57,520
impulse, tradition, celebration, and
8608
07:17:55,760 --> 07:18:01,120
nostalgia.
8609
07:17:57,520 --> 07:18:04,958
In 2025, global spending on toys
8610
07:18:01,120 --> 07:18:08,000
approaches 120 billion, nearly double
8611
07:18:04,958 --> 07:18:09,760
what it was two decades earlier. The
8612
07:18:08,000 --> 07:18:12,320
United States remains the world's
8613
07:18:09,760 --> 07:18:15,440
largest consumer. accounting for roughly
8614
07:18:12,320 --> 07:18:17,520
onethird of global sales. A typical
8615
07:18:15,440 --> 07:18:21,200
American household with children may
8616
07:18:17,520 --> 07:18:24,160
spend $300 to $400 per child per year on
8617
07:18:21,200 --> 07:18:26,478
toys. This is more than five times the
8618
07:18:24,160 --> 07:18:28,958
global average.
8619
07:18:26,478 --> 07:18:31,200
Europe forms the second largest block
8620
07:18:28,958 --> 07:18:34,080
with strong purchasing power in Germany,
8621
07:18:31,200 --> 07:18:36,558
the United Kingdom, and France.
8622
07:18:34,080 --> 07:18:38,958
Asia-Pacific is rapidly growing,
8623
07:18:36,558 --> 07:18:41,840
especially in China, South Korea, and
8624
07:18:38,958 --> 07:18:44,558
Japan. driven by rising middle classes
8625
07:18:41,840 --> 07:18:46,958
and urban lifestyles.
8626
07:18:44,558 --> 07:18:50,240
But the most important shift of the last
8627
07:18:46,958 --> 07:18:53,240
decade is not geographic. It is
8628
07:18:50,240 --> 07:18:53,240
demographic.
8629
07:18:57,360 --> 07:19:02,478
Adults, once considered irrelevant to
8630
07:19:00,080 --> 07:19:04,718
the toy industry, are now one of the
8631
07:19:02,478 --> 07:19:06,878
most powerful forces.
8632
07:19:04,718 --> 07:19:09,840
This growing segment, commonly called
8633
07:19:06,878 --> 07:19:12,798
the kid market, now represents between
8634
07:19:09,840 --> 07:19:14,718
25 and 30% of all toy purchases
8635
07:19:12,798 --> 07:19:17,200
worldwide.
8636
07:19:14,718 --> 07:19:20,320
Adults buy toys for nostalgia, for
8637
07:19:17,200 --> 07:19:21,840
stress relief, for display, for
8638
07:19:20,320 --> 07:19:24,080
identity.
8639
07:19:21,840 --> 07:19:25,200
Lego is the undisputed champion of this
8640
07:19:24,080 --> 07:19:27,600
movement.
8641
07:19:25,200 --> 07:19:30,920
>> Unlike other hobbies, Lego gives me a
8642
07:19:27,600 --> 07:19:30,920
sense of calm.
8643
07:19:32,080 --> 07:19:36,718
It lets me take ideas from my mind,
8644
07:19:34,400 --> 07:19:39,360
bring them to life, think them through,
8645
07:19:36,718 --> 07:19:41,680
and simply enjoy the process.
8646
07:19:39,360 --> 07:19:44,798
>> Right now, I'm trying to instill that in
8647
07:19:41,680 --> 07:19:46,878
my son to enjoy himself, to learn to see
8648
07:19:44,798 --> 07:19:48,718
colors and shapes, and to understand
8649
07:19:46,878 --> 07:19:50,798
that with imagination, anything is
8650
07:19:48,718 --> 07:19:54,080
possible.
8651
07:19:50,798 --> 07:19:56,638
Its premium sets, Technic Hypercars,
8652
07:19:54,080 --> 07:19:59,360
Star Wars Ultimate Collector Series,
8653
07:19:56,638 --> 07:20:01,680
iconic landmarks, regularly exceed
8654
07:19:59,360 --> 07:20:03,920
prices of $30,500,
8655
07:20:01,680 --> 07:20:06,718
even $800.
8656
07:20:03,920 --> 07:20:08,478
They sell out within hours. They hold
8657
07:20:06,718 --> 07:20:10,000
aftermarket values like fine
8658
07:20:08,478 --> 07:20:12,160
collectibles.
8659
07:20:10,000 --> 07:20:14,000
This adult segment has reshaped the
8660
07:20:12,160 --> 07:20:17,040
entire financial landscape of the
8661
07:20:14,000 --> 07:20:19,760
company. It provides stability when
8662
07:20:17,040 --> 07:20:23,040
children's trends shift. It creates
8663
07:20:19,760 --> 07:20:25,120
recurring revenue from loyal fans and it
8664
07:20:23,040 --> 07:20:28,080
strengthens LEGO's position as a
8665
07:20:25,120 --> 07:20:31,040
crossgenerational brand, something few
8666
07:20:28,080 --> 07:20:33,360
toy companies have ever achieved.
8667
07:20:31,040 --> 07:20:36,320
Seasonality still dictates much of the
8668
07:20:33,360 --> 07:20:38,558
global toy market. Every year, nearly
8669
07:20:36,320 --> 07:20:41,920
half of all toy sales occur between
8670
07:20:38,558 --> 07:20:44,798
October and December. Companies live or
8671
07:20:41,920 --> 07:20:48,080
die by holiday forecasting, inventory
8672
07:20:44,798 --> 07:20:50,878
strategy, and shipment timing. But LEGO
8673
07:20:48,080 --> 07:20:53,680
has become the exception. Adult
8674
07:20:50,878 --> 07:20:56,080
collectors buy year round. Digital
8675
07:20:53,680 --> 07:20:59,120
experiences drive sales outside the
8676
07:20:56,080 --> 07:21:02,478
holiday season. Licensed launches create
8677
07:20:59,120 --> 07:21:05,120
anticipation even in slow quarters.
8678
07:21:02,478 --> 07:21:07,120
LEGO has effectively freed itself or at
8679
07:21:05,120 --> 07:21:09,200
least partially from the seasonal
8680
07:21:07,120 --> 07:21:11,920
dependency that has defined the toy
8681
07:21:09,200 --> 07:21:14,878
industry for over a century.
8682
07:21:11,920 --> 07:21:17,600
The brick is physical, tangible,
8683
07:21:14,878 --> 07:21:20,478
mechanical. But LEGO's success in the
8684
07:21:17,600 --> 07:21:25,280
21st century extends into digital
8685
07:21:20,478 --> 07:21:27,600
worlds. Star Wars, Batman, Marvel. These
8686
07:21:25,280 --> 07:21:30,878
games defined an entire generation of
8687
07:21:27,600 --> 07:21:33,440
familyfriendly titles. They sold tens of
8688
07:21:30,878 --> 07:21:36,638
millions of copies. They introduced
8689
07:21:33,440 --> 07:21:40,160
humor, storytelling, and simplicity to a
8690
07:21:36,638 --> 07:21:42,240
medium often dominated by complexity.
8691
07:21:40,160 --> 07:21:45,280
For many children born after the year
8692
07:21:42,240 --> 07:21:49,120
2000, Lego was not discovered in a toy
8693
07:21:45,280 --> 07:21:52,000
box, but on a screen. The cinematic leap
8694
07:21:49,120 --> 07:21:54,798
came in 2014 when the Lego movie
8695
07:21:52,000 --> 07:21:57,600
premiered to global acclaim. It turned
8696
07:21:54,798 --> 07:22:00,240
nearly half a billion dollars. Most
8697
07:21:57,600 --> 07:22:03,600
importantly, it reframed Lego as a
8698
07:22:00,240 --> 07:22:05,920
cultural idea, not a product. The film
8699
07:22:03,600 --> 07:22:09,200
taught a global audience that creativity
8700
07:22:05,920 --> 07:22:11,280
matters, that imperfection is beautiful,
8701
07:22:09,200 --> 07:22:15,040
that building and rebuilding are not
8702
07:22:11,280 --> 07:22:18,080
failures, they are the process of play.
8703
07:22:15,040 --> 07:22:20,320
Lego Batman expanded the concept. Lego
8704
07:22:18,080 --> 07:22:23,680
Ninjago created an entirely new
8705
07:22:20,320 --> 07:22:25,760
generation of fans. And Lego Masters on
8706
07:22:23,680 --> 07:22:27,920
television turned building into a
8707
07:22:25,760 --> 07:22:30,718
competitive art form.
8708
07:22:27,920 --> 07:22:34,000
The brand had moved beyond toys, beyond
8709
07:22:30,718 --> 07:22:36,558
stories, beyond bricks. It had become
8710
07:22:34,000 --> 07:22:39,558
part of the cultural grammar of the 21st
8711
07:22:36,558 --> 07:22:39,558
century.
8712
07:22:43,200 --> 07:22:47,600
Long before STEM became a global
8713
07:22:45,280 --> 07:22:50,558
movement, Lego was already teaching
8714
07:22:47,600 --> 07:22:54,240
children how to think like engineers.
8715
07:22:50,558 --> 07:22:56,718
In the 1990s, LEGO Mindstorms introduced
8716
07:22:54,240 --> 07:23:00,558
programmable robotics to students around
8717
07:22:56,718 --> 07:23:03,440
the world. Later sets we do, Spike
8718
07:23:00,558 --> 07:23:06,478
Prime, Boost, brought coding, sensors,
8719
07:23:03,440 --> 07:23:09,120
and motors into classrooms and homes.
8720
07:23:06,478 --> 07:23:11,600
Today, LEGO Education works with
8721
07:23:09,120 --> 07:23:13,600
governments, schools, and universities
8722
07:23:11,600 --> 07:23:17,120
to bring hands-on learning to millions
8723
07:23:13,600 --> 07:23:19,760
of students. The philosophy is simple.
8724
07:23:17,120 --> 07:23:22,160
Children learn best through play. This
8725
07:23:19,760 --> 07:23:25,360
approach shapes future engineers,
8726
07:23:22,160 --> 07:23:27,040
designers, and problem solvers. It helps
8727
07:23:25,360 --> 07:23:29,840
children experiment in ways that
8728
07:23:27,040 --> 07:23:32,798
textbooks cannot. And it continues
8729
07:23:29,840 --> 07:23:34,878
Olirk's belief that play is not a
8730
07:23:32,798 --> 07:23:37,600
distraction from learning, but the
8731
07:23:34,878 --> 07:23:39,600
foundation of it.
8732
07:23:37,600 --> 07:23:40,400
In a world increasingly focused on
8733
07:23:39,600 --> 07:23:42,478
sustainability,
8734
07:23:40,400 --> 07:23:44,400
>> from my experience, what makes Lego
8735
07:23:42,478 --> 07:23:47,280
different from other construction toys
8736
07:23:44,400 --> 07:23:49,600
is its growing commitment to inclusion.
8737
07:23:47,280 --> 07:23:50,958
In recent years, LEGO has actively
8738
07:23:49,600 --> 07:23:53,120
embraced people with different
8739
07:23:50,958 --> 07:23:55,120
abilities. For example, by including
8740
07:23:53,120 --> 07:23:57,840
figures in wheelchairs and releasing
8741
07:23:55,120 --> 07:23:59,600
sets in braille. These are things most
8742
07:23:57,840 --> 07:24:01,760
other brands simply don't offer, but
8743
07:23:59,600 --> 07:24:03,920
LEGO does.
8744
07:24:01,760 --> 07:24:05,920
In addition, LEGO is strongly committed
8745
07:24:03,920 --> 07:24:07,520
to the environment.
8746
07:24:05,920 --> 07:24:09,760
They're producing more and more pieces
8747
07:24:07,520 --> 07:24:11,680
using recycled plastic and replacing
8748
07:24:09,760 --> 07:24:14,478
plastic packaging with paper to reduce
8749
07:24:11,680 --> 07:24:17,040
waste, something other brands simply
8750
07:24:14,478 --> 07:24:20,160
don't do.
8751
07:24:17,040 --> 07:24:22,638
LEGO faces a unique challenge. Its
8752
07:24:20,160 --> 07:24:25,040
bricks are made to last forever. A
8753
07:24:22,638 --> 07:24:28,798
blessing for creativity, but a concern
8754
07:24:25,040 --> 07:24:30,878
in an era of plastic waste. In response,
8755
07:24:28,798 --> 07:24:32,718
LEGO has invested hundreds of millions
8756
07:24:30,878 --> 07:24:34,958
of dollars into developing more
8757
07:24:32,718 --> 07:24:37,520
sustainable materials.
8758
07:24:34,958 --> 07:24:40,798
Plant-based polyethylene is already used
8759
07:24:37,520 --> 07:24:43,840
for leaves and trees. Recycled PT
8760
07:24:40,798 --> 07:24:46,320
prototypes continue to advance.
8761
07:24:43,840 --> 07:24:49,840
Recycled PET prototypes continue to
8762
07:24:46,320 --> 07:24:53,360
advance. New polymer engineering aims to
8763
07:24:49,840 --> 07:24:56,000
create bricks as durable as ABS without
8764
07:24:53,360 --> 07:24:59,280
the environmental cost.
8765
07:24:56,000 --> 07:25:01,440
This transition is not simple. A Lego
8766
07:24:59,280 --> 07:25:04,160
brick must interlock with perfect
8767
07:25:01,440 --> 07:25:06,240
precision. A fraction of a millimeter
8768
07:25:04,160 --> 07:25:08,080
can make the difference between wonder
8769
07:25:06,240 --> 07:25:10,718
and frustration.
8770
07:25:08,080 --> 07:25:13,120
But the mission is clear. A toy that
8771
07:25:10,718 --> 07:25:16,320
lasts forever should also protect the
8772
07:25:13,120 --> 07:25:20,000
world it is played in. Play is not a
8773
07:25:16,320 --> 07:25:21,600
luxury. Play is exploration. Play is
8774
07:25:20,000 --> 07:25:23,840
curiosity.
8775
07:25:21,600 --> 07:25:25,680
Play is the earliest form of human
8776
07:25:23,840 --> 07:25:27,840
creativity.
8777
07:25:25,680 --> 07:25:30,400
From wooden ducks in a small Danish
8778
07:25:27,840 --> 07:25:32,478
workshop to interlocking bricks that
8779
07:25:30,400 --> 07:25:35,760
span generations
8780
07:25:32,478 --> 07:25:38,718
to movies, video games, robotics, and
8781
07:25:35,760 --> 07:25:41,360
global fan communities. LEGO has
8782
07:25:38,718 --> 07:25:45,120
remained loyal to a simple truth. When
8783
07:25:41,360 --> 07:25:48,798
we build, we grow. When we imagine, we
8784
07:25:45,120 --> 07:25:51,798
expand. When we play, we become more
8785
07:25:48,798 --> 07:25:51,798
human.
8786
07:25:55,760 --> 07:26:01,440
More than a century ago, a carpenter
8787
07:25:58,478 --> 07:26:04,558
rebuilt his workshop after a fire. He
8788
07:26:01,440 --> 07:26:07,120
rebuilt it again after another. Not
8789
07:26:04,558 --> 07:26:09,600
because it was easy, but because he
8790
07:26:07,120 --> 07:26:12,958
believed in the power of making things
8791
07:26:09,600 --> 07:26:15,040
and in the power of play. Today,
8792
07:26:12,958 --> 07:26:18,638
billions of creations have risen from
8793
07:26:15,040 --> 07:26:20,478
that belief. Cities, castles,
8794
07:26:18,638 --> 07:26:22,478
spaceships,
8795
07:26:20,478 --> 07:26:25,680
dreams that exist nowhere else but in
8796
07:26:22,478 --> 07:26:28,718
the minds of the people who build them.
8797
07:26:25,680 --> 07:26:31,600
Lego is not perfect. It has faced
8798
07:26:28,718 --> 07:26:35,760
crises, challenges, and impossible
8799
07:26:31,600 --> 07:26:37,840
decisions. But it endures through war,
8800
07:26:35,760 --> 07:26:40,638
through technological revolutions,
8801
07:26:37,840 --> 07:26:43,760
through economic storms. Because
8802
07:26:40,638 --> 07:26:45,680
imagination always endures.
8803
07:26:43,760 --> 07:26:48,478
And as long as there are hands reaching
8804
07:26:45,680 --> 07:26:51,600
for bricks, as long as there are minds
8805
07:26:48,478 --> 07:26:54,558
ready to create, the legacy of Ole
8806
07:26:51,600 --> 07:27:00,200
Christensen will continue.
8807
07:26:54,558 --> 07:27:00,200
Every dream starts with a single piece.
8808
07:28:26,320 --> 07:28:34,000
Jensen Huang, the software moat.
8809
07:28:30,638 --> 07:28:37,360
June 18th, 2024.
8810
07:28:34,000 --> 07:28:39,840
For a brief historic moment, the world
8811
07:28:37,360 --> 07:28:43,200
had a new king.
8812
07:28:39,840 --> 07:28:46,320
Jensen Hang, the co-founder and CEO of
8813
07:28:43,200 --> 07:28:49,680
Nvidia, stood at the peak of a $3.4
8814
07:28:46,320 --> 07:28:52,000
trillion mountain.
8815
07:28:49,680 --> 07:28:55,040
Analysts whispered that he wasn't just
8816
07:28:52,000 --> 07:28:58,638
leading a company. He was leading the
8817
07:28:55,040 --> 07:29:01,520
first entity destined for a $4 trillion
8818
07:28:58,638 --> 07:29:03,520
valuation.
8819
07:29:01,520 --> 07:29:06,958
But to understand the man in the leather
8820
07:29:03,520 --> 07:29:10,798
jacket, you cannot look at the triumph.
8821
07:29:06,958 --> 07:29:15,040
You must look at the fear. Behind the
8822
07:29:10,798 --> 07:29:18,558
250% revenue jumps and the soldout age
8823
07:29:15,040 --> 07:29:21,040
100 backlogs lies a leader obsessed with
8824
07:29:18,558 --> 07:29:22,718
the cyclical trap.
8825
07:29:21,040 --> 07:29:24,320
In the 60-year history of
8826
07:29:22,718 --> 07:29:27,120
semiconductors,
8827
07:29:24,320 --> 07:29:31,200
giants like Texas Instruments, Intel,
8828
07:29:27,120 --> 07:29:34,240
and Samsung have all held the crown only
8829
07:29:31,200 --> 07:29:37,280
to see it slip away.
8830
07:29:34,240 --> 07:29:42,000
Jensen's mission is simple. Break the
8831
07:29:37,280 --> 07:29:45,120
cycle before it breaks him.
8832
07:29:42,000 --> 07:29:47,760
Flashback to September 1996.
8833
07:29:45,120 --> 07:29:50,160
The golden era of the internet is
8834
07:29:47,760 --> 07:29:54,160
dawning for everyone else but for
8835
07:29:50,160 --> 07:29:57,200
Nvidia. It is a death nail.
8836
07:29:54,160 --> 07:30:00,160
Their first chip, the NV1, is a
8837
07:29:57,200 --> 07:30:02,638
technical ghost rejected by Microsoft's
8838
07:30:00,160 --> 07:30:05,200
DirectX.
8839
07:30:02,638 --> 07:30:08,000
Jensen stands before a dwindling team
8840
07:30:05,200 --> 07:30:10,638
and delivers the most famous mantra in
8841
07:30:08,000 --> 07:30:14,558
Silicon Valley history.
8842
07:30:10,638 --> 07:30:18,080
We have exactly 30 days of oxygen left.
8843
07:30:14,558 --> 07:30:20,478
We are 30 days from bankruptcy.
8844
07:30:18,080 --> 07:30:22,878
How does a man go from cleaning toilets
8845
07:30:20,478 --> 07:30:24,878
in a Kentucky reform school to
8846
07:30:22,878 --> 07:30:28,000
controlling the foundational layer of
8847
07:30:24,878 --> 07:30:30,878
the global AI economy?
8848
07:30:28,000 --> 07:30:34,160
From a red leather booth at a Denny's to
8849
07:30:30,878 --> 07:30:36,398
a legal showdown in the US Supreme Court
8850
07:30:34,160 --> 07:30:38,240
over the very intellectual honesty of
8851
07:30:36,398 --> 07:30:40,878
his empire.
8852
07:30:38,240 --> 07:30:42,398
This is not just a story of silicon and
8853
07:30:40,878 --> 07:30:44,558
software.
8854
07:30:42,398 --> 07:30:46,718
This is the chronicle of the man who
8855
07:30:44,558 --> 07:30:48,398
decided to manufacture intelligence
8856
07:30:46,718 --> 07:30:51,920
itself.
8857
07:30:48,398 --> 07:30:55,360
This is Jensen Hang, the architect of
8858
07:30:51,920 --> 07:31:00,680
the digital brain.
8859
07:30:55,360 --> 07:31:00,680
Chapter one. Forged in the chaos,
8860
07:31:00,878 --> 07:31:06,798
Nvidia was not born from abundance. Its
8861
07:31:04,320 --> 07:31:08,958
DNA was forged in the raw fires of
8862
07:31:06,798 --> 07:31:11,760
survival.
8863
07:31:08,958 --> 07:31:14,478
Jen's son Huang arrived in the United
8864
07:31:11,760 --> 07:31:17,840
States as a young migrant, but his
8865
07:31:14,478 --> 07:31:20,320
destination wasn't an elite prep school.
8866
07:31:17,840 --> 07:31:22,878
Due to a clerical misunderstanding by
8867
07:31:20,320 --> 07:31:26,080
his parents, he was sent to Onida
8868
07:31:22,878 --> 07:31:28,958
Baptist Institute in rural Kentucky, a
8869
07:31:26,080 --> 07:31:31,600
place that at the time functioned more
8870
07:31:28,958 --> 07:31:34,160
as a reform school for troubled youths
8871
07:31:31,600 --> 07:31:37,280
than a traditional academy.
8872
07:31:34,160 --> 07:31:39,280
At 9 years old, the future CEO of one of
8873
07:31:37,280 --> 07:31:41,840
the world's most valuable companies
8874
07:31:39,280 --> 07:31:45,280
wasn't coding. He was cleaning the
8875
07:31:41,840 --> 07:31:47,360
toilets of 150 teenagers every single
8876
07:31:45,280 --> 07:31:49,840
afternoon.
8877
07:31:47,360 --> 07:31:51,520
In his personal transcripts, Jensen
8878
07:31:49,840 --> 07:31:55,040
reflects on this with a chilling
8879
07:31:51,520 --> 07:31:57,440
stoicism. I didn't complain. I just
8880
07:31:55,040 --> 07:31:59,360
learned to work hard.
8881
07:31:57,440 --> 07:32:02,000
That boy learned the first law of
8882
07:31:59,360 --> 07:32:05,520
accelerated computing decades before it
8883
07:32:02,000 --> 07:32:08,160
existed. For a system to be efficient,
8884
07:32:05,520 --> 07:32:11,360
it must be able to process chaos under
8885
07:32:08,160 --> 07:32:14,398
extreme pressure.
8886
07:32:11,360 --> 07:32:16,798
By 15, Jensen was the most efficient
8887
07:32:14,398 --> 07:32:19,920
dishwasher and waiter at a Denny's in
8888
07:32:16,798 --> 07:32:22,398
Portland. I was incredibly shy, he
8889
07:32:19,920 --> 07:32:25,360
admits. But the chaos of the kitchen
8890
07:32:22,398 --> 07:32:27,920
forced me out of my shell.
8891
07:32:25,360 --> 07:32:31,520
It is no coincidence that Nvidia was
8892
07:32:27,920 --> 07:32:34,240
founded in 1993 inside a booth at that
8893
07:32:31,520 --> 07:32:36,478
very same restaurant chain.
8894
07:32:34,240 --> 07:32:39,200
While the world saw the dawn of the PC
8895
07:32:36,478 --> 07:32:42,878
as an office tool for spreadsheets,
8896
07:32:39,200 --> 07:32:46,798
Jensen, Chris Mahovski, and Curtis Pim
8897
07:32:42,878 --> 07:32:51,120
saw a fatal weakness.
8898
07:32:46,798 --> 07:32:54,240
In 1993, Intel's generalpurpose CPU was
8899
07:32:51,120 --> 07:32:57,200
hitting a physical wall. If the future
8900
07:32:54,240 --> 07:32:59,200
of computing was visual and immersive,
8901
07:32:57,200 --> 07:33:01,280
the traditional serial architecture
8902
07:32:59,200 --> 07:33:02,958
would become the bottleneck of human
8903
07:33:01,280 --> 07:33:06,398
progress.
8904
07:33:02,958 --> 07:33:09,600
With only $40,000 in startup capital,
8905
07:33:06,398 --> 07:33:12,080
they founded Nvidia to chase a ghost,
8906
07:33:09,600 --> 07:33:14,000
accelerated computing.
8907
07:33:12,080 --> 07:33:16,958
They bet on a market the rest of the
8908
07:33:14,000 --> 07:33:20,798
industry dismissed as a niche for toys,
8909
07:33:16,958 --> 07:33:22,558
video games. Before Jensen, video games
8910
07:33:20,798 --> 07:33:24,160
were the ultimate technological
8911
07:33:22,558 --> 07:33:26,240
flywheel.
8912
07:33:24,160 --> 07:33:29,120
He knew that if you could master the
8913
07:33:26,240 --> 07:33:31,280
massive realtime rendering of pixels,
8914
07:33:29,120 --> 07:33:33,360
you could eventually simulate reality
8915
07:33:31,280 --> 07:33:35,840
itself.
8916
07:33:33,360 --> 07:33:38,160
But before they could reach that glory,
8917
07:33:35,840 --> 07:33:42,760
they had to survive their first massive
8918
07:33:38,160 --> 07:33:42,760
technical abyss, the NV1.
8919
07:33:50,080 --> 07:33:57,280
By 1995, Nvidia's first massive bet, the
8920
07:33:54,320 --> 07:33:59,920
NV1 chip, was ready to conquer the
8921
07:33:57,280 --> 07:34:02,958
market. But Jensen Huang had made a
8922
07:33:59,920 --> 07:34:04,558
catastrophic technical gamble.
8923
07:34:02,958 --> 07:34:07,840
At a time when the industry was
8924
07:34:04,558 --> 07:34:10,240
undecided, he bet on quadratic texture
8925
07:34:07,840 --> 07:34:13,520
mapping, a method that used curved
8926
07:34:10,240 --> 07:34:16,000
surfaces to create 3D images.
8927
07:34:13,520 --> 07:34:19,360
It was mathematically intelligent, but
8928
07:34:16,000 --> 07:34:21,360
it was a lonely path. The industry
8929
07:34:19,360 --> 07:34:24,878
hammer dropped when Microsoft released
8930
07:34:21,360 --> 07:34:27,840
its first DirectX API. Microsoft chose
8931
07:34:24,878 --> 07:34:30,558
triangles, not quads, as the universal
8932
07:34:27,840 --> 07:34:32,398
language for PC gaming.
8933
07:34:30,558 --> 07:34:35,840
This decision rendered Nvidia's
8934
07:34:32,398 --> 07:34:39,040
technology instantly obsolete.
8935
07:34:35,840 --> 07:34:42,798
The NV1 wasn't just a failure, it was a
8936
07:34:39,040 --> 07:34:45,680
dead end. The company was bleeding cash,
8937
07:34:42,798 --> 07:34:51,000
and as Jensen famously put it, they were
8938
07:34:45,680 --> 07:34:51,000
staring at exactly 30 days of oxygen.
8939
07:34:51,520 --> 07:34:56,718
Nvidia's only lifeline was a strategic
8940
07:34:54,160 --> 07:34:58,558
contract with the Japanese giant Sega to
8941
07:34:56,718 --> 07:35:01,360
build the graphics engine for the Sega
8942
07:34:58,558 --> 07:35:04,320
Saturn. But Jensen was trapped in a
8943
07:35:01,360 --> 07:35:06,478
moral and business dilemma.
8944
07:35:04,320 --> 07:35:09,040
He knew that if they continued building
8945
07:35:06,478 --> 07:35:12,080
the chip for Sega using Nvidia's flawed
8946
07:35:09,040 --> 07:35:14,878
quad technology, Sega would lose the
8947
07:35:12,080 --> 07:35:18,160
console war to Sony's PlayStation and
8948
07:35:14,878 --> 07:35:21,120
Nvidia would eventually perish anyway.
8949
07:35:18,160 --> 07:35:22,878
In an act of intellectual honesty, or as
8950
07:35:21,120 --> 07:35:26,878
many at the time called corporate
8951
07:35:22,878 --> 07:35:30,478
suicide, Jensen flew to Japan. He sat
8952
07:35:26,878 --> 07:35:34,398
across from Shy Chiro Majiri, the CEO of
8953
07:35:30,478 --> 07:35:37,200
Sega, and told him the brutal truth. Our
8954
07:35:34,398 --> 07:35:39,680
technology is on the wrong path. If we
8955
07:35:37,200 --> 07:35:42,320
finish this project, you will produce an
8956
07:35:39,680 --> 07:35:45,200
inferior product.
8957
07:35:42,320 --> 07:35:47,680
Jensen asked for the impossible. He
8958
07:35:45,200 --> 07:35:50,160
asked Sega to terminate the contract,
8959
07:35:47,680 --> 07:35:53,120
but to pay the remaining $5 million
8960
07:35:50,160 --> 07:35:55,600
anyway. If you don't pay us, Jensen
8961
07:35:53,120 --> 07:35:57,520
pleaded, Nvidia will cease to exist
8962
07:35:55,600 --> 07:35:59,920
tomorrow.
8963
07:35:57,520 --> 07:36:03,040
To the astonishment of the tech world,
8964
07:35:59,920 --> 07:36:06,000
Idim Majiri son agreed. He didn't pay
8965
07:36:03,040 --> 07:36:08,398
for a working chip. He paid for Jensen's
8966
07:36:06,000 --> 07:36:11,360
integrity.
8967
07:36:08,398 --> 07:36:13,840
That $5 million was the most expensive
8968
07:36:11,360 --> 07:36:16,638
oxygen in history.
8969
07:36:13,840 --> 07:36:19,040
To make it last, Jensen had to fire half
8970
07:36:16,638 --> 07:36:20,958
of his workforce. These weren't just
8971
07:36:19,040 --> 07:36:23,760
employees. They were friends who had
8972
07:36:20,958 --> 07:36:25,760
shared the Denny's dream. This trauma
8973
07:36:23,760 --> 07:36:28,958
institutionalized a permanent state of
8974
07:36:25,760 --> 07:36:31,840
emergency at Nvidia.
8975
07:36:28,958 --> 07:36:35,520
With the remaining team, Jensen funneled
8976
07:36:31,840 --> 07:36:37,920
every cent into the Reval 128.
8977
07:36:35,520 --> 07:36:40,718
They abandoned quads and embraced
8978
07:36:37,920 --> 07:36:45,200
Microsoft's triangles with a vengeance.
8979
07:36:40,718 --> 07:36:48,240
When it launched in 1997, the Revo 128
8980
07:36:45,200 --> 07:36:49,920
was 400% faster than anything else on
8981
07:36:48,240 --> 07:36:53,040
the market.
8982
07:36:49,920 --> 07:36:56,080
It was a dive catch of epic proportions.
8983
07:36:53,040 --> 07:36:59,040
Nvidia was no longer just a survivor. It
8984
07:36:56,080 --> 07:37:01,840
had become a hunter.
8985
07:36:59,040 --> 07:37:05,280
But as Jensen looked at the horizon, he
8986
07:37:01,840 --> 07:37:09,558
saw 70 rivals waiting to kill him. The
8987
07:37:05,280 --> 07:37:09,558
war was only beginning.
8988
07:37:14,638 --> 07:37:20,478
The success of the Reva 128 was a dive
8989
07:37:18,000 --> 07:37:22,958
catch, but it placed Nvidia in the
8990
07:37:20,478 --> 07:37:26,478
middle of a slaughterhouse.
8991
07:37:22,958 --> 07:37:28,718
By 1997, there were over 70 companies
8992
07:37:26,478 --> 07:37:30,240
fighting for the soul of the 3D graphics
8993
07:37:28,718 --> 07:37:32,240
market.
8994
07:37:30,240 --> 07:37:35,520
It was a commodity war where price
8995
07:37:32,240 --> 07:37:37,760
cutting was the only weapon for most.
8996
07:37:35,520 --> 07:37:40,000
Jensen Huang realized that if Nvidia
8997
07:37:37,760 --> 07:37:43,520
played by the industry's rules, they
8998
07:37:40,000 --> 07:37:46,878
would eventually be ground into dust.
8999
07:37:43,520 --> 07:37:48,878
He decided to break the laws of time.
9000
07:37:46,878 --> 07:37:52,160
The industry's standard for developing a
9001
07:37:48,878 --> 07:37:55,440
new chip was 18 to 24 months. Following
9002
07:37:52,160 --> 07:37:57,680
the steady beat of Moore's law, Jensen
9003
07:37:55,440 --> 07:38:00,798
gathered his engineers and imposed a
9004
07:37:57,680 --> 07:38:03,440
suicidal mandate. Nvidia would release a
9005
07:38:00,798 --> 07:38:07,200
brand new groundbreaking architecture
9006
07:38:03,440 --> 07:38:09,120
every 6 months.
9007
07:38:07,200 --> 07:38:10,718
It was a strategy of relentless
9008
07:38:09,120 --> 07:38:14,160
execution.
9009
07:38:10,718 --> 07:38:17,280
By the time a competitor like 3dfx or S3
9010
07:38:14,160 --> 07:38:20,320
could react to one Nvidia chip, Jensen
9011
07:38:17,280 --> 07:38:22,558
had already launched two more. This
9012
07:38:20,320 --> 07:38:24,798
forced the competition into a permanent
9013
07:38:22,558 --> 07:38:27,760
state of obsolescence.
9014
07:38:24,798 --> 07:38:30,160
To achieve this, Nvidia had to reinvent
9015
07:38:27,760 --> 07:38:32,638
its internal engineering, running
9016
07:38:30,160 --> 07:38:34,718
multiple design teams in parallel, a
9017
07:38:32,638 --> 07:38:36,718
massive financial risk that pushed the
9018
07:38:34,718 --> 07:38:41,200
company to the edge of its operational
9019
07:38:36,718 --> 07:38:47,360
capacity. In 1999, the war reached its
9020
07:38:41,200 --> 07:38:50,000
climax. Nvidia released the GeForce 256.
9021
07:38:47,360 --> 07:38:52,160
Jensen didn't just market it as a faster
9022
07:38:50,000 --> 07:38:56,160
card. He coined a term that would
9023
07:38:52,160 --> 07:38:59,120
redefine computing history, the GPU,
9024
07:38:56,160 --> 07:39:02,160
graphics processing unit. This wasn't
9025
07:38:59,120 --> 07:39:03,840
just branding. Technically, the GeForce
9026
07:39:02,160 --> 07:39:05,760
256
9027
07:39:03,840 --> 07:39:07,840
moved the transform and lighting
9028
07:39:05,760 --> 07:39:11,120
calculations, the most heavy
9029
07:39:07,840 --> 07:39:14,080
mathematical lifting of 3D off the CPU
9030
07:39:11,120 --> 07:39:16,558
and onto the chip itself. It was the
9031
07:39:14,080 --> 07:39:18,958
birth of a new era.
9032
07:39:16,558 --> 07:39:20,958
This performance leap was so massive
9033
07:39:18,958 --> 07:39:22,958
that Nvidia secured the prestigious
9034
07:39:20,958 --> 07:39:26,878
contract for the original Microsoft
9035
07:39:22,958 --> 07:39:29,360
Xbox, receiving a crucial $200 million
9036
07:39:26,878 --> 07:39:32,478
advance.
9037
07:39:29,360 --> 07:39:35,040
The 6-month cycle worked. By the early
9038
07:39:32,478 --> 07:39:39,440
2000s, the 70 competitors had been
9039
07:39:35,040 --> 07:39:42,320
reduced to just two, Nvidia and ATI.
9040
07:39:39,440 --> 07:39:44,638
In a final act of dominance, Nvidia
9041
07:39:42,320 --> 07:39:49,120
acquired the assets of its former idol
9042
07:39:44,638 --> 07:39:52,398
and arch rival 3dfx in 2000.
9043
07:39:49,120 --> 07:39:55,920
Jensen had cleared the board. He was the
9044
07:39:52,398 --> 07:39:58,478
undisputed king of gaming. But at the
9045
07:39:55,920 --> 07:40:00,240
very moment of his greatest triumph, he
9046
07:39:58,478 --> 07:40:03,040
began to look at the higherformance
9047
07:40:00,240 --> 07:40:05,440
computing market. He realized that the
9048
07:40:03,040 --> 07:40:08,398
GPU's massive parallel math could do
9049
07:40:05,440 --> 07:40:11,360
more than just draw pixels. It could
9050
07:40:08,398 --> 07:40:14,878
solve the world's most complex problems.
9051
07:40:11,360 --> 07:40:19,240
The seeds of CUDA and the $10 billion
9052
07:40:14,878 --> 07:40:19,240
gamble were being planted.
9053
07:40:24,478 --> 07:40:31,280
By 2006, Nvidia was the undisputed king
9054
07:40:28,240 --> 07:40:33,840
of the gaming world. But Jensen Huang
9055
07:40:31,280 --> 07:40:36,080
was restless. He realized that the same
9056
07:40:33,840 --> 07:40:38,638
parallel processing power that rendered
9057
07:40:36,080 --> 07:40:40,638
pixels for World of Warcraft could be
9058
07:40:38,638 --> 07:40:43,120
used to solve the world's most complex
9059
07:40:40,638 --> 07:40:46,718
mathematical problems.
9060
07:40:43,120 --> 07:40:48,240
He launched CUDA, compute unified device
9061
07:40:46,718 --> 07:40:50,320
architecture.
9062
07:40:48,240 --> 07:40:52,958
It was a declaration of war against the
9063
07:40:50,320 --> 07:40:55,760
CPUcentric world.
9064
07:40:52,958 --> 07:40:58,558
The goal was simple yet insane.
9065
07:40:55,760 --> 07:41:01,520
Transform every NVIDIA GPU into a
9066
07:40:58,558 --> 07:41:03,520
generalpurpose supercomput.
9067
07:41:01,520 --> 07:41:07,360
But this decision came with a staggering
9068
07:41:03,520 --> 07:41:09,920
cost. Jensen mandated that every single
9069
07:41:07,360 --> 07:41:12,080
GPU Nvidia manufactured, from the
9070
07:41:09,920 --> 07:41:14,718
high-end workstation cards to the
9071
07:41:12,080 --> 07:41:17,120
cheapest laptop chips must include the
9072
07:41:14,718 --> 07:41:19,600
extra transistors and hardware logic to
9073
07:41:17,120 --> 07:41:23,120
support CUDA.
9074
07:41:19,600 --> 07:41:25,760
Wall Street was horrified.
9075
07:41:23,120 --> 07:41:29,600
For nearly a decade, Nvidia spent
9076
07:41:25,760 --> 07:41:32,558
billions, estimated at over10 billion in
9077
07:41:29,600 --> 07:41:35,360
cumulative R&D on a software platform
9078
07:41:32,558 --> 07:41:37,360
that almost no one was using.
9079
07:41:35,360 --> 07:41:39,760
Profit margins, which once sat
9080
07:41:37,360 --> 07:41:42,240
comfortably high, were sacrificed at the
9081
07:41:39,760 --> 07:41:45,280
altar of this vision.
9082
07:41:42,240 --> 07:41:47,520
Analysts mocked the strategy, calling it
9083
07:41:45,280 --> 07:41:50,320
the bridge to nowhere.
9084
07:41:47,520 --> 07:41:52,798
During the 2008 financial crisis,
9085
07:41:50,320 --> 07:41:55,120
Nvidia's market cap plummeted and the
9086
07:41:52,798 --> 07:41:57,360
company was once again staring into the
9087
07:41:55,120 --> 07:41:59,040
abyss.
9088
07:41:57,360 --> 07:42:01,840
But Jensen wasn't just building
9089
07:41:59,040 --> 07:42:04,958
hardware. He was building a software
9090
07:42:01,840 --> 07:42:07,520
moat. He sent Nvidia engineers to
9091
07:42:04,958 --> 07:42:09,680
universities around the world, helping
9092
07:42:07,520 --> 07:42:11,680
professors teach parallel programming
9093
07:42:09,680 --> 07:42:14,240
using CUDA.
9094
07:42:11,680 --> 07:42:16,878
He was seeding the ground. While
9095
07:42:14,240 --> 07:42:19,920
competitors like Intel and AMD focused
9096
07:42:16,878 --> 07:42:22,958
on making faster chips, Jensen was
9097
07:42:19,920 --> 07:42:25,200
building an entire language. By the time
9098
07:42:22,958 --> 07:42:27,840
a developer learned CUDA, they were
9099
07:42:25,200 --> 07:42:30,718
locked in. Switching to a competitor
9100
07:42:27,840 --> 07:42:32,798
wouldn't just mean buying a new chip. It
9101
07:42:30,718 --> 07:42:35,200
would mean rewriting millions of lines
9102
07:42:32,798 --> 07:42:38,320
of code.
9103
07:42:35,200 --> 07:42:40,958
Year after year, Jensen defended CUDA in
9104
07:42:38,320 --> 07:42:43,120
boardrooms and earning calls. He
9105
07:42:40,958 --> 07:42:45,440
practiced what he calls long-term
9106
07:42:43,120 --> 07:42:48,240
commitment to a vision, even when the
9107
07:42:45,440 --> 07:42:50,638
data didn't yet support it. He was
9108
07:42:48,240 --> 07:42:53,360
waiting for a killer app for accelerated
9109
07:42:50,638 --> 07:42:55,840
computing. He didn't know what it would
9110
07:42:53,360 --> 07:42:58,478
be. But he knew that as data grew
9111
07:42:55,840 --> 07:43:01,440
exponentially, the serial processing of
9112
07:42:58,478 --> 07:43:03,920
the CPU would eventually fail.
9113
07:43:01,440 --> 07:43:05,680
The silence of the CUDA winter was about
9114
07:43:03,920 --> 07:43:08,718
to be broken.
9115
07:43:05,680 --> 07:43:11,920
In a lab at the University of Toronto, a
9116
07:43:08,718 --> 07:43:14,398
PhD student named Alex Kresvki was about
9117
07:43:11,920 --> 07:43:17,440
to feed a neural network called AlexNet
9118
07:43:14,398 --> 07:43:19,840
into those Nvidia GPUs.
9119
07:43:17,440 --> 07:43:22,958
The big bang of artificial intelligence
9120
07:43:19,840 --> 07:43:25,280
was seconds away, and Jensen Hang was
9121
07:43:22,958 --> 07:43:29,798
the only person on Earth who had already
9122
07:43:25,280 --> 07:43:29,798
built the engine to power it.
9123
07:43:35,280 --> 07:43:39,200
The year was 2012.
9124
07:43:37,600 --> 07:43:42,160
While the world saw just another
9125
07:43:39,200 --> 07:43:44,320
academic competition, Jensen Huang saw
9126
07:43:42,160 --> 07:43:45,920
the spark that would ignite a global
9127
07:43:44,320 --> 07:43:49,120
revolution.
9128
07:43:45,920 --> 07:43:52,558
A neural network called AlexNet, powered
9129
07:43:49,120 --> 07:43:55,760
by NVIDIA GPUs, crushed the competition
9130
07:43:52,558 --> 07:43:58,398
in image recognition. It was the big
9131
07:43:55,760 --> 07:44:01,120
bang of deep learning.
9132
07:43:58,398 --> 07:44:04,320
Jensen didn't just celebrate, he pivoted
9133
07:44:01,120 --> 07:44:07,360
the entire company. He realized that the
9134
07:44:04,320 --> 07:44:11,680
$10 billion gamble on CUDA had finally
9135
07:44:07,360 --> 07:44:13,920
found its soul, artificial intelligence.
9136
07:44:11,680 --> 07:44:16,160
This pivot transformed Nvidia from a
9137
07:44:13,920 --> 07:44:18,320
graphics card company into the
9138
07:44:16,160 --> 07:44:21,280
foundational engine of the world's most
9139
07:44:18,320 --> 07:44:23,120
powerful data centers.
9140
07:44:21,280 --> 07:44:26,320
Jensen's vision was no longer about
9141
07:44:23,120 --> 07:44:27,760
drawing pixels. It was about generative
9142
07:44:26,320 --> 07:44:30,638
AI.
9143
07:44:27,760 --> 07:44:33,840
By the time Chat GPT launched in late
9144
07:44:30,638 --> 07:44:36,320
2022, Nvidia didn't just have a head
9145
07:44:33,840 --> 07:44:39,600
start. They were the only ones at the
9146
07:44:36,320 --> 07:44:41,840
starting line.
9147
07:44:39,600 --> 07:44:44,478
Jensen acted with a speed that terrified
9148
07:44:41,840 --> 07:44:47,520
his competitors. He didn't just wait for
9149
07:44:44,478 --> 07:44:49,200
orders. He re-engineered Nvidia's entire
9150
07:44:47,520 --> 07:44:52,080
road map.
9151
07:44:49,200 --> 07:44:54,798
In 2016, he personally delivered the
9152
07:44:52,080 --> 07:44:57,600
first Nvidia DGX1,
9153
07:44:54,798 --> 07:45:00,398
the world's first AI supercomput in a
9154
07:44:57,600 --> 07:45:01,920
box to a then small nonprofit called
9155
07:45:00,398 --> 07:45:05,040
OpenAI.
9156
07:45:01,920 --> 07:45:08,040
He was very clear. This will change the
9157
07:45:05,040 --> 07:45:08,040
world.
9158
07:45:08,798 --> 07:45:12,160
Technically, this period was about
9159
07:45:10,558 --> 07:45:14,558
specialization.
9160
07:45:12,160 --> 07:45:17,360
Nvidia began adding tensor cores to its
9161
07:45:14,558 --> 07:45:18,958
chips. These weren't for graphics. They
9162
07:45:17,360 --> 07:45:20,958
were designed specifically for the deep
9163
07:45:18,958 --> 07:45:22,638
learning math that powers neural
9164
07:45:20,958 --> 07:45:24,558
networks.
9165
07:45:22,638 --> 07:45:27,120
Nvidia was no longer just making a
9166
07:45:24,558 --> 07:45:29,280
faster graphics card. It was building a
9167
07:45:27,120 --> 07:45:33,360
specialized brain.
9168
07:45:29,280 --> 07:45:35,680
By 2017, the momentum was unstoppable.
9169
07:45:33,360 --> 07:45:37,840
Every major tech giant was building AI
9170
07:45:35,680 --> 07:45:40,080
labs and they all had one thing in
9171
07:45:37,840 --> 07:45:41,760
common. They were built on Nvidia's
9172
07:45:40,080 --> 07:45:44,000
stack.
9173
07:45:41,760 --> 07:45:46,638
This was the era when the software mode
9174
07:45:44,000 --> 07:45:48,080
became a fortress. Thousands of
9175
07:45:46,638 --> 07:45:51,360
researchers were now writing their
9176
07:45:48,080 --> 07:45:53,200
doctoral thesis on CUDA.
9177
07:45:51,360 --> 07:45:55,680
If a competitor wanted to challenge
9178
07:45:53,200 --> 07:45:58,240
Nvidia, they wouldn't just need a better
9179
07:45:55,680 --> 07:46:00,798
chip. They would have to convince the
9180
07:45:58,240 --> 07:46:03,680
world's brightest minds to forget
9181
07:46:00,798 --> 07:46:06,398
everything they had learned.
9182
07:46:03,680 --> 07:46:09,520
But as the AI revolution took hold, an
9183
07:46:06,398 --> 07:46:12,080
unexpected shadow emerged. A new craze
9184
07:46:09,520 --> 07:46:14,638
called Bitcoin and Ethereum began to
9185
07:46:12,080 --> 07:46:17,680
consume Nvidia's supply.
9186
07:46:14,638 --> 07:46:21,440
To the world, Nvidia looked invincible,
9187
07:46:17,680 --> 07:46:23,120
but internally Jensen was wary. Jensen
9188
07:46:21,440 --> 07:46:24,638
knew that every bubble eventually
9189
07:46:23,120 --> 07:46:27,040
bursts.
9190
07:46:24,638 --> 07:46:29,360
This period of explosive accidental
9191
07:46:27,040 --> 07:46:32,478
growth from crypto miners was creating a
9192
07:46:29,360 --> 07:46:34,718
shadow over the company's true mission,
9193
07:46:32,478 --> 07:46:37,520
setting the stage for a highstakes legal
9194
07:46:34,718 --> 07:46:39,440
battle over corporate transparency and a
9195
07:46:37,520 --> 07:46:43,398
financial storm that would test the very
9196
07:46:39,440 --> 07:46:43,398
foundations of his leadership.
9197
07:46:47,200 --> 07:46:53,120
In 2018, Nvidia was riding a wave that
9198
07:46:50,558 --> 07:46:56,240
looked like a miracle, but felt like a
9199
07:46:53,120 --> 07:46:58,398
mirage. The explosion of cryptocurrency
9200
07:46:56,240 --> 07:47:01,040
mining had created an insatiable hunger
9201
07:46:58,398 --> 07:47:03,600
for GeForce cards.
9202
07:47:01,040 --> 07:47:06,638
To the outside world, Nvidia's revenue
9203
07:47:03,600 --> 07:47:08,798
was reaching historic heights. However,
9204
07:47:06,638 --> 07:47:11,760
beneath the surface, a dangerous
9205
07:47:08,798 --> 07:47:13,760
ambiguity was growing. Jensen Hang
9206
07:47:11,760 --> 07:47:16,478
insisted that the growth was driven by a
9207
07:47:13,760 --> 07:47:20,398
gaming renaissance, but the reality was
9208
07:47:16,478 --> 07:47:22,398
more volatile. The mirage evaporated in
9209
07:47:20,398 --> 07:47:25,280
late 2018.
9210
07:47:22,398 --> 07:47:28,718
The crypto winter arrived and the demand
9211
07:47:25,280 --> 07:47:30,638
for mining chips vanished overnight.
9212
07:47:28,718 --> 07:47:32,958
Nvidia was left with a massive surplus
9213
07:47:30,638 --> 07:47:35,600
of inventory and the market's reaction
9214
07:47:32,958 --> 07:47:39,840
was brutal. The company's stock price
9215
07:47:35,600 --> 07:47:42,478
plummeted by 28% in a single day.
9216
07:47:39,840 --> 07:47:46,398
The invincible architect of AI was
9217
07:47:42,478 --> 07:47:48,240
suddenly facing a crisis of credibility.
9218
07:47:46,398 --> 07:47:49,920
This financial collapse ignited a
9219
07:47:48,240 --> 07:47:51,840
highstakes legal battle that would
9220
07:47:49,920 --> 07:47:53,840
eventually reach the steps of the US
9221
07:47:51,840 --> 07:47:56,160
Supreme Court.
9222
07:47:53,840 --> 07:47:58,558
A group of institutional investors filed
9223
07:47:56,160 --> 07:48:01,040
a class action lawsuit alleging that
9224
07:47:58,558 --> 07:48:04,000
Jensen Huang had deliberately misled the
9225
07:48:01,040 --> 07:48:08,718
market. The core of the case rested on a
9226
07:48:04,000 --> 07:48:10,718
single devastating word, ci. The intent
9227
07:48:08,718 --> 07:48:13,200
to deceive.
9228
07:48:10,718 --> 07:48:15,200
The accusation was sharp. Investors
9229
07:48:13,200 --> 07:48:17,440
claimed that internal Nvidia reports
9230
07:48:15,200 --> 07:48:19,920
clearly showed over a billion dollars in
9231
07:48:17,440 --> 07:48:22,638
revenue attributed to gamers was
9232
07:48:19,920 --> 07:48:24,958
actually coming from crypto miners.
9233
07:48:22,638 --> 07:48:27,200
Jensen fought back, defending his
9234
07:48:24,958 --> 07:48:29,280
intellectual honesty and arguing that
9235
07:48:27,200 --> 07:48:32,320
the expert opinions used against him
9236
07:48:29,280 --> 07:48:34,718
were nothing more than speculation.
9237
07:48:32,320 --> 07:48:36,958
This battle known as petition number
9238
07:48:34,718 --> 07:48:39,040
23-970
9239
07:48:36,958 --> 07:48:41,760
became a landmark moment for Silicon
9240
07:48:39,040 --> 07:48:43,840
Valley, questioning how much a CEO must
9241
07:48:41,760 --> 07:48:45,680
disclose when their technology
9242
07:48:43,840 --> 07:48:48,878
accidentally conquers a market they
9243
07:48:45,680 --> 07:48:51,280
didn't intend to lead.
9244
07:48:48,878 --> 07:48:53,120
While lawyers argued in Washington,
9245
07:48:51,280 --> 07:48:55,920
Jensen was already looking past the
9246
07:48:53,120 --> 07:48:58,240
wreckage. He didn't let the legal storm
9247
07:48:55,920 --> 07:49:00,798
or the inventory crisis slowed down his
9248
07:48:58,240 --> 07:49:03,440
ultimate plan. He doubled down on the
9249
07:49:00,798 --> 07:49:06,000
data center, acquiring Melanox for $7
9250
07:49:03,440 --> 07:49:07,840
billion to control the highways between
9251
07:49:06,000 --> 07:49:09,760
his chips.
9252
07:49:07,840 --> 07:49:12,320
He was preparing for a world where AI
9253
07:49:09,760 --> 07:49:14,398
wouldn't just be a research project, but
9254
07:49:12,320 --> 07:49:16,000
the operating system of the entire
9255
07:49:14,398 --> 07:49:18,798
planet.
9256
07:49:16,000 --> 07:49:21,200
The storm of 2018 had been a warning.
9257
07:49:18,798 --> 07:49:25,000
The era of generative AI was about to
9258
07:49:21,200 --> 07:49:25,000
provide the answer.
9259
07:49:28,798 --> 07:49:35,520
By 2022, the world had changed. The
9260
07:49:33,200 --> 07:49:38,478
launch of Chad GPT signaled the arrival
9261
07:49:35,520 --> 07:49:42,000
of the generative AI era, and Nvidia was
9262
07:49:38,478 --> 07:49:44,240
the only company prepared to power it.
9263
07:49:42,000 --> 07:49:47,280
But as Jensen Hang stood on the brink of
9264
07:49:44,240 --> 07:49:50,398
total market dominance, a new wall was
9265
07:49:47,280 --> 07:49:53,520
built, not by a competitor, but by the
9266
07:49:50,398 --> 07:49:56,558
US government. Washington imposed strict
9267
07:49:53,520 --> 07:49:58,478
export controls on high-end AI chips.
9268
07:49:56,558 --> 07:50:00,878
For Nvidia, the stakes were
9269
07:49:58,478 --> 07:50:02,798
astronomical.
9270
07:50:00,878 --> 07:50:05,760
According to the geographical revenue
9271
07:50:02,798 --> 07:50:08,958
data, China accounted for approximately
9272
07:50:05,760 --> 07:50:10,798
20% to 25% of the company's total
9273
07:50:08,958 --> 07:50:13,200
business.
9274
07:50:10,798 --> 07:50:15,760
Overnight, Jensen had to navigate a
9275
07:50:13,200 --> 07:50:17,520
geopolitical minefield, redesigning
9276
07:50:15,760 --> 07:50:19,680
chips specifically to comply with
9277
07:50:17,520 --> 07:50:21,600
regulations while trying to keep his
9278
07:50:19,680 --> 07:50:23,760
most important market from slipping
9279
07:50:21,600 --> 07:50:26,080
away.
9280
07:50:23,760 --> 07:50:28,000
Jensen's answer to the geopolitical and
9281
07:50:26,080 --> 07:50:29,520
technical pressure was the Blackwell
9282
07:50:28,000 --> 07:50:33,120
architecture.
9283
07:50:29,520 --> 07:50:37,200
If the H100 was a spark, Blackwell was a
9284
07:50:33,120 --> 07:50:39,840
sun. Packing an incredible 208 billion
9285
07:50:37,200 --> 07:50:41,840
transistors, it delivered up to 30 times
9286
07:50:39,840 --> 07:50:44,240
the performance of its predecessor for
9287
07:50:41,840 --> 07:50:46,160
certain AI tasks.
9288
07:50:44,240 --> 07:50:48,878
But Blackwell represented a deeper
9289
07:50:46,160 --> 07:50:51,920
strategic shift. Nvidia was no longer
9290
07:50:48,878 --> 07:50:54,798
just a chipmaker.
9291
07:50:51,920 --> 07:50:56,320
Jensen was now building entire AI
9292
07:50:54,798 --> 07:50:58,478
factories.
9293
07:50:56,320 --> 07:51:00,958
By integrating Melanox's networking
9294
07:50:58,478 --> 07:51:02,878
technology, he controlled the highways
9295
07:51:00,958 --> 07:51:04,958
that allowed thousands of chips to talk
9296
07:51:02,878 --> 07:51:07,520
to each other as if they were a single
9297
07:51:04,958 --> 07:51:09,760
giant brain.
9298
07:51:07,520 --> 07:51:11,680
This system on a cluster approach meant
9299
07:51:09,760 --> 07:51:14,160
that even if a competitor produced a
9300
07:51:11,680 --> 07:51:15,840
faster individual chip, they couldn't
9301
07:51:14,160 --> 07:51:18,878
compete with the sheer efficiency of the
9302
07:51:15,840 --> 07:51:21,520
Nvidia ecosystem.
9303
07:51:18,878 --> 07:51:24,718
The financial results were staggering.
9304
07:51:21,520 --> 07:51:28,638
By early 2024, Nvidia's data center
9305
07:51:24,718 --> 07:51:33,360
revenue had surged to over $47 billion,
9306
07:51:28,638 --> 07:51:36,240
a 217% increase in a single year. The
9307
07:51:33,360 --> 07:51:38,798
company was operating with 78.4%
9308
07:51:36,240 --> 07:51:41,200
gross margins. Profit levels usually
9309
07:51:38,798 --> 07:51:43,760
reserved for software giants, not
9310
07:51:41,200 --> 07:51:47,440
hardware manufacturers.
9311
07:51:43,760 --> 07:51:50,798
On June 18th, 2024, Nvidia became the
9312
07:51:47,440 --> 07:51:53,600
most valuable company on the planet.
9313
07:51:50,798 --> 07:51:56,878
Yet, even as he stood at the summit,
9314
07:51:53,600 --> 07:51:59,680
Jensen refused to relax. He looked the
9315
07:51:56,878 --> 07:52:02,320
60-year history of semiconductors, the
9316
07:51:59,680 --> 07:52:05,040
rise and fall of Intel, the cycles of
9317
07:52:02,320 --> 07:52:07,200
Samsung and TI, and he knew that being
9318
07:52:05,040 --> 07:52:10,558
on top was the most dangerous place to
9319
07:52:07,200 --> 07:52:13,920
be. His next challenge wouldn't just be
9320
07:52:10,558 --> 07:52:17,558
about chips. It would be about giving AI
9321
07:52:13,920 --> 07:52:17,558
a physical body.
9322
07:52:21,360 --> 07:52:26,478
In 2024, Jensen Hang had already
9323
07:52:24,320 --> 07:52:28,878
conquered the digital world, but his
9324
07:52:26,478 --> 07:52:31,520
eyes were fixed on a new frontier, the
9325
07:52:28,878 --> 07:52:34,398
physical one. He declared that the next
9326
07:52:31,520 --> 07:52:36,240
wave of AI would be physical AI.
9327
07:52:34,398 --> 07:52:39,280
Intelligence that doesn't just process
9328
07:52:36,240 --> 07:52:41,120
text or images, but understands the laws
9329
07:52:39,280 --> 07:52:43,440
of physics.
9330
07:52:41,120 --> 07:52:46,478
Everything that moves from autonomous
9331
07:52:43,440 --> 07:52:49,600
cars to humanoid robots would eventually
9332
07:52:46,478 --> 07:52:52,000
be powered by an Nvidia brain.
9333
07:52:49,600 --> 07:52:55,680
This identifies it as the third pillar
9334
07:52:52,000 --> 07:52:58,718
of Nvidia's future. To win this race,
9335
07:52:55,680 --> 07:53:00,718
Jensen isn't just building chips. He is
9336
07:52:58,718 --> 07:53:02,878
building the omniverse.
9337
07:53:00,718 --> 07:53:05,040
This is a digital world where robots are
9338
07:53:02,878 --> 07:53:07,920
trained millions of times in a virtual
9339
07:53:05,040 --> 07:53:10,080
simulation before they ever step into a
9340
07:53:07,920 --> 07:53:12,798
real factory.
9341
07:53:10,080 --> 07:53:14,878
By the time a robot starts its job, it
9342
07:53:12,798 --> 07:53:18,080
has already lived a thousand lifetimes
9343
07:53:14,878 --> 07:53:20,718
of experience. Jensen's strategy is a
9344
07:53:18,080 --> 07:53:22,958
total vertical integration. He is
9345
07:53:20,718 --> 07:53:24,958
transforming Nvidia into a provider of
9346
07:53:22,958 --> 07:53:27,200
AI factories.
9347
07:53:24,958 --> 07:53:29,600
He believes that in the future, every
9348
07:53:27,200 --> 07:53:31,840
company will have two factories, one
9349
07:53:29,600 --> 07:53:34,958
that produces physical goods and a
9350
07:53:31,840 --> 07:53:37,120
digital one that produces intelligence.
9351
07:53:34,958 --> 07:53:40,320
With the Melanox networking, high-speed
9352
07:53:37,120 --> 07:53:42,160
highways and the CUDA software fortress,
9353
07:53:40,320 --> 07:53:44,080
Jensen has ensured that the entire
9354
07:53:42,160 --> 07:53:47,440
infrastructure of this new industrial
9355
07:53:44,080 --> 07:53:50,320
revolution runs on Nvidia. When asked
9356
07:53:47,440 --> 07:53:52,320
about his legacy, Jensen doesn't talk
9357
07:53:50,320 --> 07:53:55,040
about stock prices or trillions of
9358
07:53:52,320 --> 07:53:58,478
dollars. He talks about material
9359
07:53:55,040 --> 07:54:00,558
sciences and scientific discovery.
9360
07:53:58,478 --> 07:54:03,200
He believes AI will give humans
9361
07:54:00,558 --> 07:54:05,920
superpowers, helping us solve climate
9362
07:54:03,200 --> 07:54:08,160
change, cure diseases, and handle the
9363
07:54:05,920 --> 07:54:11,120
dangerous and mundane tasks so we can
9364
07:54:08,160 --> 07:54:14,120
focus on what truly makes us human,
9365
07:54:11,120 --> 07:54:14,120
curiosity.
9366
07:54:16,718 --> 07:54:21,120
By 2025,
9367
07:54:18,718 --> 07:54:22,878
the world had entered a state of compute
9368
07:54:21,120 --> 07:54:26,000
geopolitics.
9369
07:54:22,878 --> 07:54:28,558
Nvidia was no longer just a company. It
9370
07:54:26,000 --> 07:54:31,760
had become a strategic resource similar
9371
07:54:28,558 --> 07:54:35,360
to oil or grain. The launch of the
9372
07:54:31,760 --> 07:54:38,160
Blackwell B200 hadn't just met demand.
9373
07:54:35,360 --> 07:54:41,680
It had ignited a global scramble.
9374
07:54:38,160 --> 07:54:44,478
Nations like Japan, France, and the UAE
9375
07:54:41,680 --> 07:54:46,160
began building sovereign AI clouds.
9376
07:54:44,478 --> 07:54:48,478
Realizing that depending on a few
9377
07:54:46,160 --> 07:54:51,520
Silicon Valley giants for intelligence
9378
07:54:48,478 --> 07:54:54,878
was a national security risk.
9379
07:54:51,520 --> 07:54:58,638
But as 2025 progressed, a new whisper
9380
07:54:54,878 --> 07:55:01,520
began to haunt the industry. The wall.
9381
07:54:58,638 --> 07:55:04,398
For years, AI progress relied on scaling
9382
07:55:01,520 --> 07:55:06,638
laws. The idea that more data and more
9383
07:55:04,398 --> 07:55:08,160
GPUs would inevitably lead to more
9384
07:55:06,638 --> 07:55:11,280
intelligence.
9385
07:55:08,160 --> 07:55:13,920
However, in 2026, the returns are
9386
07:55:11,280 --> 07:55:16,558
starting to diminish. Data centers are
9387
07:55:13,920 --> 07:55:19,280
becoming so massive, they require their
9388
07:55:16,558 --> 07:55:21,440
own dedicated nuclear power plants. and
9389
07:55:19,280 --> 07:55:23,920
the lowhanging fruit of internet data
9390
07:55:21,440 --> 07:55:26,160
has been exhausted.
9391
07:55:23,920 --> 07:55:28,798
Jensen's response to the wall is
9392
07:55:26,160 --> 07:55:30,878
typically defiant. He pivoted the
9393
07:55:28,798 --> 07:55:34,798
industry towards synthetic data and
9394
07:55:30,878 --> 07:55:37,280
reasoning models. In 2026, Nvidia's
9395
07:55:34,798 --> 07:55:41,600
focus has shifted from simply training
9396
07:55:37,280 --> 07:55:43,840
AI to inference at scale. The goal is no
9397
07:55:41,600 --> 07:55:46,320
longer just to build a model that knows
9398
07:55:43,840 --> 07:55:48,478
everything, but to build a system that
9399
07:55:46,320 --> 07:55:50,878
thinks through a problem for days, if
9400
07:55:48,478 --> 07:55:54,638
necessary, using massive clusters of
9401
07:55:50,878 --> 07:55:57,840
GPUs to reach a breakthrough.
9402
07:55:54,638 --> 07:56:01,120
The competition in 2026 has never been
9403
07:55:57,840 --> 07:56:03,520
fiercer. Nvidia's biggest customers,
9404
07:56:01,120 --> 07:56:05,680
Amazon, Google, and Microsoft, have
9405
07:56:03,520 --> 07:56:07,680
become its most dangerous rivals,
9406
07:56:05,680 --> 07:56:12,080
pouring billions into their own custom
9407
07:56:07,680 --> 07:56:15,040
AI chips to escape the NVIDIA tax. Yet,
9408
07:56:12,080 --> 07:56:17,440
the software mode remains unreached.
9409
07:56:15,040 --> 07:56:19,760
While others build chips, Jensen is
9410
07:56:17,440 --> 07:56:22,240
building the entire ecosystem, the
9411
07:56:19,760 --> 07:56:23,760
networking, the libraries, and the
9412
07:56:22,240 --> 07:56:26,558
pre-trained models that make a
9413
07:56:23,760 --> 07:56:29,920
competitor's hardware feel like a relic
9414
07:56:26,558 --> 07:56:32,718
before it even leaves the factory.
9415
07:56:29,920 --> 07:56:34,320
In this era, Jensen Hong has become one
9416
07:56:32,718 --> 07:56:37,200
of the world's most influential
9417
07:56:34,320 --> 07:56:39,440
diplomat. He navigates a world where the
9418
07:56:37,200 --> 07:56:41,280
power grid is the new bottleneck and
9419
07:56:39,440 --> 07:56:43,200
where a single shipment of chips can
9420
07:56:41,280 --> 07:56:44,958
determine the economic future of a
9421
07:56:43,200 --> 07:56:47,760
country.
9422
07:56:44,958 --> 07:56:50,958
The trillion dollar question of 2026 is
9423
07:56:47,760 --> 07:56:53,040
no longer if AI will change the world,
9424
07:56:50,958 --> 07:56:56,280
but who will own the infrastructure of
9425
07:56:53,040 --> 07:56:56,280
that change.
9426
07:56:59,600 --> 07:57:04,080
The story of Nvidia is often told as a
9427
07:57:02,080 --> 07:57:07,040
series of lucky breaks or inevitable
9428
07:57:04,080 --> 07:57:10,080
triumphs. But as we look at the empire
9429
07:57:07,040 --> 07:57:12,478
Jensen Huang has built, the reality is
9430
07:57:10,080 --> 07:57:14,398
far more deliberate and far more
9431
07:57:12,478 --> 07:57:17,360
precarious.
9432
07:57:14,398 --> 07:57:19,120
In 2026, the company stands at the
9433
07:57:17,360 --> 07:57:21,360
center of the greatest industrial shift
9434
07:57:19,120 --> 07:57:24,240
in human history.
9435
07:57:21,360 --> 07:57:26,798
Yet for Jensen, the valuation of three,
9436
07:57:24,240 --> 07:57:29,760
four, or 5 trillion is a lagging
9437
07:57:26,798 --> 07:57:31,360
indicator. The true metric is the
9438
07:57:29,760 --> 07:57:33,360
oxygen.
9439
07:57:31,360 --> 07:57:35,280
Throughout his journey, from the dish
9440
07:57:33,360 --> 07:57:37,920
pits of Dennis to the halls of the
9441
07:57:35,280 --> 07:57:41,280
Supreme Court, Jensen has maintained a
9442
07:57:37,920 --> 07:57:43,840
philosophy of intellectual honesty.
9443
07:57:41,280 --> 07:57:46,558
He admits when the technology is wrong.
9444
07:57:43,840 --> 07:57:48,558
He pivots when the market shifts. And he
9445
07:57:46,558 --> 07:57:51,120
invests billions when the world calls
9446
07:57:48,558 --> 07:57:52,798
him a fool. He has turned a
9447
07:57:51,120 --> 07:57:55,520
semiconductor company into a
9448
07:57:52,798 --> 07:57:58,558
geopolitical superpower, a software
9449
07:57:55,520 --> 07:58:00,958
fortress, and the primary architect of a
9450
07:57:58,558 --> 07:58:02,958
new form of life.
9451
07:58:00,958 --> 07:58:05,520
Critics ask if Nvidia is a bubble
9452
07:58:02,958 --> 07:58:08,398
waiting to burst, or if the scaling laws
9453
07:58:05,520 --> 07:58:10,240
of AI will eventually hit a dead end.
9454
07:58:08,398 --> 07:58:12,798
But Jensen doesn't operate on the
9455
07:58:10,240 --> 07:58:15,120
timeline of a stock market cycle. He
9456
07:58:12,798 --> 07:58:16,798
operates on the timeline of human
9457
07:58:15,120 --> 07:58:19,520
evolution.
9458
07:58:16,798 --> 07:58:20,958
He isn't just selling chips. He is
9459
07:58:19,520 --> 07:58:23,680
selling the marginal cost of
9460
07:58:20,958 --> 07:58:26,398
intelligence, making the most valuable
9461
07:58:23,680 --> 07:58:29,280
resource in the universe so abundant
9462
07:58:26,398 --> 07:58:31,840
that it changes the very definition of
9463
07:58:29,280 --> 07:58:34,000
what is possible.
9464
07:58:31,840 --> 07:58:35,920
Jensen often says that he wakes up every
9465
07:58:34,000 --> 07:58:37,440
morning with the same feeling he had in
9466
07:58:35,920 --> 07:58:39,280
1993.
9467
07:58:37,440 --> 07:58:42,398
the feeling that the company is going
9468
07:58:39,280 --> 07:58:45,120
out of business. It is this productive
9469
07:58:42,398 --> 07:58:48,398
paranoia that prevents the cyclical trap
9470
07:58:45,120 --> 07:58:51,040
that claim the giants of the past. He
9471
07:58:48,398 --> 07:58:53,600
doesn't want to be the king of a legacy.
9472
07:58:51,040 --> 07:58:58,638
He wants to be the architect of a future
9473
07:58:53,600 --> 07:59:02,080
that hasn't even been imagined yet.
9474
07:58:58,638 --> 07:59:04,558
Run, don't walk. Either you are running
9475
07:59:02,080 --> 07:59:08,240
for food or you are running from being
9476
07:59:04,558 --> 07:59:13,398
food. In the era of the digital brain,
9477
07:59:08,240 --> 07:59:13,398
the race has only just begun.
9478
08:00:39,760 --> 08:00:44,638
At the edge of the world, in a country
9479
08:00:42,000 --> 08:00:47,040
with more sheep than people, one of the
9480
08:00:44,638 --> 08:00:50,320
most powerful men in Silicon Valley
9481
08:00:47,040 --> 08:00:54,398
built an escape hatch. Not a vacation
9482
08:00:50,320 --> 08:00:57,200
home, not a tax shelter, a contingency
9483
08:00:54,398 --> 08:01:00,798
plan.
9484
08:00:57,200 --> 08:01:03,040
In 2011, a billionaire quietly secured
9485
08:01:00,798 --> 08:01:05,920
citizenship in New Zealand after
9486
08:01:03,040 --> 08:01:10,160
spending just days in the country. A
9487
08:01:05,920 --> 08:01:12,080
legal backdoor, a geopolitical lifeboat
9488
08:01:10,160 --> 08:01:15,040
deep in the rugged terrain of New
9489
08:01:12,080 --> 08:01:19,040
Zealand's South Island, Peter Teal owns
9490
08:01:15,040 --> 08:01:22,638
a vast private estate, remote, secluded,
9491
08:01:19,040 --> 08:01:25,040
and far from the centers of power.
9492
08:01:22,638 --> 08:01:27,840
While most billionaires buy yachts or
9493
08:01:25,040 --> 08:01:32,240
private islands feel secured something
9494
08:01:27,840 --> 08:01:34,638
more strategic, New Zealand citizenship
9495
08:01:32,240 --> 08:01:37,840
and a vast estate in one of the most
9496
08:01:34,638 --> 08:01:40,160
remote democracies on earth. The
9497
08:01:37,840 --> 08:01:42,240
purchase price for this geopolitical
9498
08:01:40,160 --> 08:01:45,680
insurance policy.
9499
08:01:42,240 --> 08:01:48,398
In 2011, Theel obtained New Zealand
9500
08:01:45,680 --> 08:01:50,718
citizenship after spending just 12 days
9501
08:01:48,398 --> 08:01:51,760
in the country over the previous 2
9502
08:01:50,718 --> 08:01:54,160
years.
9503
08:01:51,760 --> 08:01:57,478
a process that normally requires years
9504
08:01:54,160 --> 08:01:57,478
of residency.
9505
08:01:57,600 --> 08:02:02,718
The investment that secured this
9506
08:01:59,440 --> 08:02:05,360
exceptional pathway, approximately $7
9507
08:02:02,718 --> 08:02:07,840
million in local assets and business
9508
08:02:05,360 --> 08:02:11,040
investments.
9509
08:02:07,840 --> 08:02:14,798
The centerpiece, a 477
9510
08:02:11,040 --> 08:02:19,120
acre estate near Lake Wanaka, purchased
9511
08:02:14,798 --> 08:02:21,680
for 13.5 million New Zealand, about $10
9512
08:02:19,120 --> 08:02:24,080
million.
9513
08:02:21,680 --> 08:02:28,718
When New Zealand media exposed the deal
9514
08:02:24,080 --> 08:02:30,398
in 2017, it sparked a national scandal.
9515
08:02:28,718 --> 08:02:32,000
>> Hi, Benedict. Nice to talk to you again.
9516
08:02:30,398 --> 08:02:33,920
So, when we last spoke, you told us that
9517
08:02:32,000 --> 08:02:36,558
Peter Teal was granted citizenship after
9518
08:02:33,920 --> 08:02:39,680
having only visited New Zealand four
9519
08:02:36,558 --> 08:02:41,920
times for an unknown number of days
9520
08:02:39,680 --> 08:02:43,920
because the documents had that
9521
08:02:41,920 --> 08:02:46,240
information redacted. Right.
9522
08:02:43,920 --> 08:02:48,958
>> Politicians called it citizenship for
9523
08:02:46,240 --> 08:02:50,878
sale. Opposition leaders demanded
9524
08:02:48,958 --> 08:02:53,200
investigations,
9525
08:02:50,878 --> 08:02:56,398
but Theel had already achieved his
9526
08:02:53,200 --> 08:02:58,160
objective, a legal escape hatch in the
9527
08:02:56,398 --> 08:02:59,840
world's most politically stable
9528
08:02:58,160 --> 08:03:02,718
democracy,
9529
08:02:59,840 --> 08:03:06,478
a geopolitical insurance policy that
9530
08:03:02,718 --> 08:03:08,798
money can buy.
9531
08:03:06,478 --> 08:03:11,040
Why would a man who helped build the
9532
08:03:08,798 --> 08:03:14,718
digital future prepare for the collapse
9533
08:03:11,040 --> 08:03:18,000
of the physical one? What does he see
9534
08:03:14,718 --> 08:03:22,000
that others don't? Yes, it's the uh 1
9535
08:03:18,000 --> 08:03:24,718
Thessalonians 5:3, the uh the the slogan
9536
08:03:22,000 --> 08:03:27,280
of the Antichrist is peace and safety.
9537
08:03:24,718 --> 08:03:29,280
And so, which is nothing wrong with
9538
08:03:27,280 --> 08:03:31,280
peace and safety, but uh you have to
9539
08:03:29,280 --> 08:03:33,520
sort of imagine that it resonates very
9540
08:03:31,280 --> 08:03:35,360
differently in a world where the stakes
9541
08:03:33,520 --> 08:03:36,718
are so absolute, where the stakes are so
9542
08:03:35,360 --> 08:03:41,120
extreme, where the you know the
9543
08:03:36,718 --> 08:03:43,360
alternative to peace and safety is, you
9544
08:03:41,120 --> 08:03:45,040
know, Armageddon and the destruction of
9545
08:03:43,360 --> 08:03:47,440
all things.
9546
08:03:45,040 --> 08:03:50,878
He is one of the most polarizing figures
9547
08:03:47,440 --> 08:03:53,840
in Silicon Valley. To some, a visionary
9548
08:03:50,878 --> 08:03:56,558
genius who saw the future early. To
9549
08:03:53,840 --> 08:03:58,718
others, the shadow financier of
9550
08:03:56,558 --> 08:04:01,600
movements and candidates who challenge
9551
08:03:58,718 --> 08:04:05,520
liberal democratic norms.
9552
08:04:01,600 --> 08:04:08,000
This is not fear. This is strategy.
9553
08:04:05,520 --> 08:04:11,680
For decades, Peter Theel has made the
9554
08:04:08,000 --> 08:04:14,718
same bet over and over again. Bet
9555
08:04:11,680 --> 08:04:19,360
against consensus. better against the
9556
08:04:14,718 --> 08:04:21,920
crowd, better against the system itself.
9557
08:04:19,360 --> 08:04:24,478
To understand why he built a fortress at
9558
08:04:21,920 --> 08:04:27,840
the end of the earth, we have to go back
9559
08:04:24,478 --> 08:04:30,160
to a childhood of constant displacement.
9560
08:04:27,840 --> 08:04:32,558
To a chessboard where consensus meant
9561
08:04:30,160 --> 08:04:35,360
nothing, to a company that tried to
9562
08:04:32,558 --> 08:04:38,920
replace money and another that learned
9563
08:04:35,360 --> 08:04:38,920
to see everything.
9564
08:04:39,120 --> 08:04:44,558
But the estate is more than a luxury
9565
08:04:41,600 --> 08:04:47,760
retreat. It is a fortress designed for
9566
08:04:44,558 --> 08:04:50,398
civilizational uncertainty.
9567
08:04:47,760 --> 08:04:53,040
Off-grid power systems, advanced
9568
08:04:50,398 --> 08:04:55,920
security infrastructure, multiple
9569
08:04:53,040 --> 08:04:58,320
evacuation routes through the mountains.
9570
08:04:55,920 --> 08:05:00,240
Not built for comfort, built for
9571
08:04:58,320 --> 08:05:02,878
continuity.
9572
08:05:00,240 --> 08:05:04,878
While the world debates progress, Peter
9573
08:05:02,878 --> 08:05:06,558
Theel is preparing for a different
9574
08:05:04,878 --> 08:05:09,280
possibility.
9575
08:05:06,558 --> 08:05:12,760
Not how to build the future, how to
9576
08:05:09,280 --> 08:05:12,760
survive it.
9577
08:05:14,080 --> 08:05:19,920
The architect of dissident
9578
08:05:17,680 --> 08:05:23,440
total estimated value of Theo's
9579
08:05:19,920 --> 08:05:25,200
contingency infrastructure 20 to30
9580
08:05:23,440 --> 08:05:28,558
million.
9581
08:05:25,200 --> 08:05:30,798
Not for lifestyle, not for prestige, but
9582
08:05:28,558 --> 08:05:33,120
for the day the system he helped build
9583
08:05:30,798 --> 08:05:35,200
no longer holds.
9584
08:05:33,120 --> 08:05:38,000
He didn't build this because he panics
9585
08:05:35,200 --> 08:05:40,638
easily. He built it because he has
9586
08:05:38,000 --> 08:05:43,200
always believed that the crowd is wrong
9587
08:05:40,638 --> 08:05:46,558
and the future belongs to those willing
9588
08:05:43,200 --> 08:05:49,920
to stand apart from it. Every fortress
9589
08:05:46,558 --> 08:05:52,240
begins as an idea and Peter Theel has
9590
08:05:49,920 --> 08:05:56,120
been building intellectual fortresses
9591
08:05:52,240 --> 08:05:56,120
since he was a child.
9592
08:06:00,080 --> 08:06:05,360
Before he was a billionaire, before he
9593
08:06:02,558 --> 08:06:06,878
funded political outsiders, before he
9594
08:06:05,360 --> 08:06:09,920
built machines that could see
9595
08:06:06,878 --> 08:06:11,840
everything, he was a boy who never
9596
08:06:09,920 --> 08:06:14,558
stayed in one place long enough to
9597
08:06:11,840 --> 08:06:16,558
believe the world made sense.
9598
08:06:14,558 --> 08:06:20,000
So he searched for a world where the
9599
08:06:16,558 --> 08:06:21,840
rules didn't change. He found it on a
9600
08:06:20,000 --> 08:06:24,240
chess board.
9601
08:06:21,840 --> 08:06:26,240
To understand Peter the you must
9602
08:06:24,240 --> 08:06:28,878
understand what it means to be a
9603
08:06:26,240 --> 08:06:31,680
permanent outsider.
9604
08:06:28,878 --> 08:06:34,080
Born in Frankfurt, West Germany, Peter
9605
08:06:31,680 --> 08:06:37,680
Theel spent part of his early childhood
9606
08:06:34,080 --> 08:06:40,000
in southwest Africa, now Namibia, before
9607
08:06:37,680 --> 08:06:43,360
growing up mainly in the United States
9608
08:06:40,000 --> 08:06:45,680
between Ohio and California.
9609
08:06:43,360 --> 08:06:48,958
Before he was a teenager, he had already
9610
08:06:45,680 --> 08:06:51,280
experienced life on multiple continents,
9611
08:06:48,958 --> 08:06:53,280
never staying long enough to feel fully
9612
08:06:51,280 --> 08:06:56,000
at home.
9613
08:06:53,280 --> 08:06:59,840
He didn't have a hometown. He didn't
9614
08:06:56,000 --> 08:07:02,240
have a tribe. He only had his own mind.
9615
08:06:59,840 --> 08:07:05,600
And in that isolation, he found a
9616
08:07:02,240 --> 08:07:08,600
language that didn't require a passport.
9617
08:07:05,600 --> 08:07:08,600
Chess.
9618
08:07:09,120 --> 08:07:13,440
For a child who changed continents
9619
08:07:11,280 --> 08:07:16,718
before he could even make friends, the
9620
08:07:13,440 --> 08:07:19,760
outside world was unpredictable noise.
9621
08:07:16,718 --> 08:07:21,760
But the board, the board was the only
9622
08:07:19,760 --> 08:07:24,958
place where the rules didn't change
9623
08:07:21,760 --> 08:07:27,840
depending on the country.
9624
08:07:24,958 --> 08:07:30,240
His
9625
08:07:27,840 --> 08:07:32,638
father, an engineer trained in a culture
9626
08:07:30,240 --> 08:07:35,040
of precision and systems thinking,
9627
08:07:32,638 --> 08:07:38,478
passed on a belief that reality could be
9628
08:07:35,040 --> 08:07:41,040
understood and optimized.
9629
08:07:38,478 --> 08:07:44,080
While other children sought to fit in,
9630
08:07:41,040 --> 08:07:46,878
Peter sought the edge. He learned that
9631
08:07:44,080 --> 08:07:48,558
the consensus of the crowd is usually a
9632
08:07:46,878 --> 08:07:51,120
distraction.
9633
08:07:48,558 --> 08:07:53,760
If everyone is running toward the ball,
9634
08:07:51,120 --> 08:07:55,440
you run toward where the ball is going
9635
08:07:53,760 --> 08:07:57,600
to be.
9636
08:07:55,440 --> 08:07:59,360
Chess is the ultimate antidote to
9637
08:07:57,600 --> 08:08:01,360
consensus.
9638
08:07:59,360 --> 08:08:04,080
In a crowd, you can hide behind a
9639
08:08:01,360 --> 08:08:07,200
popular opinion. In chess, you are
9640
08:08:04,080 --> 08:08:09,440
either right or you are dead. There is
9641
08:08:07,200 --> 08:08:12,080
no middle ground. There is no social
9642
08:08:09,440 --> 08:08:14,080
construction of the board.
9643
08:08:12,080 --> 08:08:16,718
He became a serious tournament chess
9644
08:08:14,080 --> 08:08:19,520
player drawn to a world where rules were
9645
08:08:16,718 --> 08:08:23,280
fixed, outcomes were earned, and
9646
08:08:19,520 --> 08:08:27,600
consensus meant nothing.
9647
08:08:23,280 --> 08:08:29,920
Mid1 1980s Stanford University.
9648
08:08:27,600 --> 08:08:32,240
To the world this was the peak of
9649
08:08:29,920 --> 08:08:36,478
American meritocracy.
9650
08:08:32,240 --> 08:08:38,558
To Theel it was a factory of conformity.
9651
08:08:36,478 --> 08:08:40,958
While his classmates were debating how
9652
08:08:38,558 --> 08:08:43,200
to change the world through activism,
9653
08:08:40,958 --> 08:08:45,840
Theel was wondering why they all sounded
9654
08:08:43,200 --> 08:08:47,920
exactly the same. He saw the
9655
08:08:45,840 --> 08:08:50,080
multiculturalism movement not as
9656
08:08:47,920 --> 08:08:52,240
progress but as a new form of
9657
08:08:50,080 --> 08:08:54,878
fundamentalism.
9658
08:08:52,240 --> 08:08:57,920
Stanford in the late 1980s was ground
9659
08:08:54,878 --> 08:09:00,718
zero for America's culture wars. Battles
9660
08:08:57,920 --> 08:09:03,760
over multiculturalism, speech, and the
9661
08:09:00,718 --> 08:09:06,080
purpose of higher education.
9662
08:09:03,760 --> 08:09:09,360
Field believed the university was
9663
08:09:06,080 --> 08:09:11,200
drifting toward ideological conformity,
9664
08:09:09,360 --> 08:09:14,638
that certain views were becoming
9665
08:09:11,200 --> 08:09:17,280
socially, if not formally, offlimits.
9666
08:09:14,638 --> 08:09:20,638
Here his investment methodology was
9667
08:09:17,280 --> 08:09:24,558
born. Identify what the crowd considers
9668
08:09:20,638 --> 08:09:28,000
sacred and question it.
9669
08:09:24,558 --> 08:09:30,958
If everyone says identity diversity is
9670
08:09:28,000 --> 08:09:33,920
the most important thing, you argue that
9671
08:09:30,958 --> 08:09:36,000
intellectual diversity is the only thing
9672
08:09:33,920 --> 08:09:38,240
that matters.
9673
08:09:36,000 --> 08:09:41,360
He wasn't looking for friends. He was
9674
08:09:38,240 --> 08:09:44,320
looking to recruit others who like him
9675
08:09:41,360 --> 08:09:47,440
did not fear being hated.
9676
08:09:44,320 --> 08:09:50,000
He founded the Stanford Review.
9677
08:09:47,440 --> 08:09:53,200
The paper quickly became one of the most
9678
08:09:50,000 --> 08:09:56,080
controversial publications on campus,
9679
08:09:53,200 --> 08:09:59,920
attacking what field saw as intellectual
9680
08:09:56,080 --> 08:10:02,080
monoculture and political group think.
9681
08:09:59,920 --> 08:10:04,478
He saw that the smartest people in the
9682
08:10:02,080 --> 08:10:07,680
country were all competing for the same
9683
08:10:04,478 --> 08:10:09,440
narrow prizes, thinking the same narrow
9684
08:10:07,680 --> 08:10:12,798
thoughts.
9685
08:10:09,440 --> 08:10:16,320
He did what every top student does. He
9686
08:10:12,798 --> 08:10:18,478
followed the track. After Stanford law,
9687
08:10:16,320 --> 08:10:20,878
he secured a prestigious federal
9688
08:10:18,478 --> 08:10:23,200
appalate clerkship, the kind of
9689
08:10:20,878 --> 08:10:25,040
credential that opens every elite door
9690
08:10:23,200 --> 08:10:27,280
in America.
9691
08:10:25,040 --> 08:10:29,760
After his clerkship, he joined Sullivan
9692
08:10:27,280 --> 08:10:33,040
and Cromwell in New York, one of the
9693
08:10:29,760 --> 08:10:35,680
most elite law firms in the world. On
9694
08:10:33,040 --> 08:10:40,398
paper, he had reached the summit. Wall
9695
08:10:35,680 --> 08:10:42,638
Street was his great negative epiphany.
9696
08:10:40,398 --> 08:10:44,798
But from his perspective, the brightest
9697
08:10:42,638 --> 08:10:46,878
graduates in America were locked in
9698
08:10:44,798 --> 08:10:49,840
brutal competition for careers they
9699
08:10:46,878 --> 08:10:52,240
didn't even seem to want.
9700
08:10:49,840 --> 08:10:54,878
It looked like Renee Gerard's theory
9701
08:10:52,240 --> 08:10:57,280
made flesh, a system where everyone
9702
08:10:54,878 --> 08:11:00,398
desired the same prize simply because
9703
08:10:57,280 --> 08:11:03,200
everyone else did. Wall Street looked at
9704
08:11:00,398 --> 08:11:06,240
Theo like a laboratory of mimemetic
9705
08:11:03,200 --> 08:11:08,798
rivalry. He realized that if he won that
9706
08:11:06,240 --> 08:11:12,080
race, his prize would be becoming the
9707
08:11:08,798 --> 08:11:15,360
man in the office next door. A copy of a
9708
08:11:12,080 --> 08:11:18,160
copy. The day he lost the opportunity to
9709
08:11:15,360 --> 08:11:21,680
clerk for the US Supreme Court wasn't a
9710
08:11:18,160 --> 08:11:24,958
defeat. It was his liberation.
9711
08:11:21,680 --> 08:11:27,600
He lasted less than a year. But Theo's
9712
08:11:24,958 --> 08:11:30,398
first venture after leaving law was a
9713
08:11:27,600 --> 08:11:32,320
humbling lesson in failure. A lesson
9714
08:11:30,398 --> 08:11:35,280
that would shape everything that came
9715
08:11:32,320 --> 08:11:38,558
after.
9716
08:11:35,280 --> 08:11:41,280
In 1996, he launched Theel Capital
9717
08:11:38,558 --> 08:11:44,240
Management,
9718
08:11:41,280 --> 08:11:47,440
a hedge fund focused on currency trading
9719
08:11:44,240 --> 08:11:50,240
and macroeconomic derivatives.
9720
08:11:47,440 --> 08:11:52,958
The strategy was to make big directional
9721
08:11:50,240 --> 08:11:55,280
bets on interest rates, inflation
9722
08:11:52,958 --> 08:11:59,040
expectations, and foreign exchange
9723
08:11:55,280 --> 08:12:02,558
movements. Initial capital raised $1
9724
08:11:59,040 --> 08:12:04,718
million mostly from Stanford connections
9725
08:12:02,558 --> 08:12:08,600
who believed in the chess prodigy turned
9726
08:12:04,718 --> 08:12:08,600
lawyer turned financia.
9727
08:12:09,440 --> 08:12:14,798
The result was spectacular failure.
9728
08:12:12,558 --> 08:12:18,080
Within the first year, the fund had lost
9729
08:12:14,798 --> 08:12:21,600
significant capital. Industry estimates
9730
08:12:18,080 --> 08:12:25,520
suggest losses between 30 and 40% of the
9731
08:12:21,600 --> 08:12:27,920
initial investment pool. Investors fled.
9732
08:12:25,520 --> 08:12:29,920
Some demanded their remaining money back
9733
08:12:27,920 --> 08:12:32,320
immediately.
9734
08:12:29,920 --> 08:12:34,478
The reputation among finance
9735
08:12:32,320 --> 08:12:36,798
professionals, the people he had walked
9736
08:12:34,478 --> 08:12:39,440
away from at Sullivan and Cromwell, took
9737
08:12:36,798 --> 08:12:42,718
a serious hit.
9738
08:12:39,440 --> 08:12:46,000
He was no longer the Stanford genius. He
9739
08:12:42,718 --> 08:12:48,478
was just another failed trader.
9740
08:12:46,000 --> 08:12:50,958
But this failure taught him the most
9741
08:12:48,478 --> 08:12:54,000
important lesson of his career.
9742
08:12:50,958 --> 08:12:56,398
Competition is for losers.
9743
08:12:54,000 --> 08:12:59,120
Do not compete in crowded markets where
9744
08:12:56,398 --> 08:13:02,798
everyone is making the same trades with
9745
08:12:59,120 --> 08:13:05,200
the same information and the same tools.
9746
08:13:02,798 --> 08:13:08,398
Wall Street was full of extremely smart
9747
08:13:05,200 --> 08:13:10,798
people doing the same macro trades,
9748
08:13:08,398 --> 08:13:13,920
reading the same economic reports,
9749
08:13:10,798 --> 08:13:16,320
betting on the same currency movements.
9750
08:13:13,920 --> 08:13:20,958
It was a zero someum game played by
9751
08:13:16,320 --> 08:13:23,120
thousands of nearly identical players.
9752
08:13:20,958 --> 08:13:26,240
He needed to find a space where the
9753
08:13:23,120 --> 08:13:28,638
rules were still being written. Where
9754
08:13:26,240 --> 08:13:31,920
being first mattered more than being
9755
08:13:28,638 --> 08:13:33,840
best, where a monopoly position was
9756
08:13:31,920 --> 08:13:36,160
still available.
9757
08:13:33,840 --> 08:13:38,558
He needed technology.
9758
08:13:36,160 --> 08:13:42,320
And from the ashes of the capital
9759
08:13:38,558 --> 08:13:44,878
management, a new philosophy was born.
9760
08:13:42,320 --> 08:13:48,160
If you want to create lasting value, you
9761
08:13:44,878 --> 08:13:50,958
have to build a monopoly. This became
9762
08:13:48,160 --> 08:13:54,680
his investing mantra and it would make
9763
08:13:50,958 --> 08:13:54,680
him billions.
9764
08:13:56,240 --> 08:14:01,120
Theel walked away from the firm and went
9765
08:13:58,320 --> 08:14:04,080
back to California not to start a tech
9766
08:14:01,120 --> 08:14:07,680
empire but to try trading then to launch
9767
08:14:04,080 --> 08:14:09,920
a hedge fund. It failed. The system he
9768
08:14:07,680 --> 08:14:13,920
had rejected did not welcome him back as
9769
08:14:09,920 --> 08:14:15,920
a prodigy. It treated him like a nobody.
9770
08:14:13,920 --> 08:14:19,840
That failure would become the last
9771
08:14:15,920 --> 08:14:22,240
lesson before his real beginning. But he
9772
08:14:19,840 --> 08:14:24,878
learned something. If you play the
9773
08:14:22,240 --> 08:14:26,878
system game as everyone else, you've
9774
08:14:24,878 --> 08:14:28,878
already lost.
9775
08:14:26,878 --> 08:14:34,520
The chess master was done with the
9776
08:14:28,878 --> 08:14:34,520
board. He was ready to build his own.
9777
08:14:39,520 --> 08:14:43,440
So this is an ATM. What we're going to
9778
08:14:41,440 --> 08:14:45,280
do is transform the traditional banking
9779
08:14:43,440 --> 08:14:48,718
industry.
9780
08:14:45,280 --> 08:14:50,398
>> I do not fit the picture of a banker.
9781
08:14:48,718 --> 08:14:52,478
>> X.com. This is Julie.
9782
08:14:50,398 --> 08:14:55,040
>> Raising $50 million is a matter of
9783
08:14:52,478 --> 08:14:57,280
making a series of phone calls and the
9784
08:14:55,040 --> 08:14:59,200
money is there.
9785
08:14:57,280 --> 08:15:01,760
>> I've sunk the great majority of of my
9786
08:14:59,200 --> 08:15:03,840
net worth into X.com, which is the new
9787
08:15:01,760 --> 08:15:06,558
banking and mutual funds company on the
9788
08:15:03,840 --> 08:15:08,398
internet that I've started. December
9789
08:15:06,558 --> 08:15:11,200
1998,
9790
08:15:08,398 --> 08:15:14,478
Peter Theel co-founds a company called
9791
08:15:11,200 --> 08:15:16,878
Conffinity with Max Levchin, a brilliant
9792
08:15:14,478 --> 08:15:19,280
Ukrainian-born programmer, and Luke
9793
08:15:16,878 --> 08:15:21,200
Nosk, a fellow Stanford review
9794
08:15:19,280 --> 08:15:24,398
illuminous.
9795
08:15:21,200 --> 08:15:26,398
Initial funding, $300,000 scraped
9796
08:15:24,398 --> 08:15:28,558
together from friends, family, and
9797
08:15:26,398 --> 08:15:30,638
fellow libertarian true believers from
9798
08:15:28,558 --> 08:15:33,040
the Stamford days.
9799
08:15:30,638 --> 08:15:36,958
The original product idea, digital
9800
08:15:33,040 --> 08:15:39,360
wallets on Palm Pilot handheld devices.
9801
08:15:36,958 --> 08:15:41,920
The vision was that people would beam
9802
08:15:39,360 --> 08:15:44,558
money to each other using infrared ports
9803
08:15:41,920 --> 08:15:47,280
on the Palm Pilots
9804
08:15:44,558 --> 08:15:48,798
in coffee shops, at restaurants,
9805
08:15:47,280 --> 08:15:53,160
persontoerson,
9806
08:15:48,798 --> 08:15:53,160
bypassing banks entirely.
9807
08:15:53,440 --> 08:16:01,520
Total users after 6 months of operation,
9808
08:15:57,040 --> 08:16:03,760
12 people. literally 12.
9809
08:16:01,520 --> 08:16:06,478
Most of them were employees and their
9810
08:16:03,760 --> 08:16:10,080
friends testing the system. It was a
9811
08:16:06,478 --> 08:16:13,040
complete and utter flop. The technology
9812
08:16:10,080 --> 08:16:18,000
worked, but nobody cared. Nobody wanted
9813
08:16:13,040 --> 08:16:21,360
it. March 2000, Confinity pivots hard
9814
08:16:18,000 --> 08:16:23,680
and launches a new feature, email-based
9815
08:16:21,360 --> 08:16:26,798
money transfers.
9816
08:16:23,680 --> 08:16:29,200
You send money to any email address. The
9817
08:16:26,798 --> 08:16:31,680
recipient gets a notification, creates
9818
08:16:29,200 --> 08:16:34,718
an account, and the money is there.
9819
08:16:31,680 --> 08:16:38,160
Simple, instant, revolutionary. The name
9820
08:16:34,718 --> 08:16:41,040
of this new service, PayPal.
9821
08:16:38,160 --> 08:16:43,600
Within weeks, user growth exploded at a
9822
08:16:41,040 --> 08:16:45,280
rate nobody had ever seen in financial
9823
08:16:43,600 --> 08:16:49,840
services.
9824
08:16:45,280 --> 08:16:55,360
Month one, 10,000 users. Month three,
9825
08:16:49,840 --> 08:17:00,320
100,000 users. Month 6, 1 million users.
9826
08:16:55,360 --> 08:17:02,718
Month 12, 5 million users.
9827
08:17:00,320 --> 08:17:04,958
This was the fastest user adoption rate
9828
08:17:02,718 --> 08:17:07,920
in the entire history of financial
9829
08:17:04,958 --> 08:17:10,398
services. Faster than credit cards,
9830
08:17:07,920 --> 08:17:12,398
faster than checking accounts, faster
9831
08:17:10,398 --> 08:17:14,958
than anything.
9832
08:17:12,398 --> 08:17:18,000
But here is what most people do not know
9833
08:17:14,958 --> 08:17:21,360
about PayPal's growth. Here is the
9834
08:17:18,000 --> 08:17:24,478
secret that the mythology leaves out.
9835
08:17:21,360 --> 08:17:28,878
PayPal's explosive user acquisition was
9836
08:17:24,478 --> 08:17:33,760
not organic. It was not word of mouth.
9837
08:17:28,878 --> 08:17:36,080
It was not viral in the natural sense.
9838
08:17:33,760 --> 08:17:40,000
They literally bought their users with
9839
08:17:36,080 --> 08:17:42,798
cash. The strategy was elegantly simple
9840
08:17:40,000 --> 08:17:45,920
and brutally expensive.
9841
08:17:42,798 --> 08:17:49,040
Sign up for a PayPal account, get $10
9842
08:17:45,920 --> 08:17:52,558
deposited instantly. Refer a friend who
9843
08:17:49,040 --> 08:17:56,798
signs up gets another $10. Your friend
9844
08:17:52,558 --> 08:18:00,160
also gets $10. Cost per acquisition 20
9845
08:17:56,798 --> 08:18:03,760
to $40 per user depending on how many
9846
08:18:00,160 --> 08:18:07,040
referrals each user generated.
9847
08:18:03,760 --> 08:18:09,920
Monthly cash burn rate of peak growth 10
9848
08:18:07,040 --> 08:18:13,200
to 12 million
9849
08:18:09,920 --> 08:18:16,798
just vanishing into user acquisition.
9850
08:18:13,200 --> 08:18:20,240
By late 2000, PayPal was spending 60 to
9851
08:18:16,798 --> 08:18:22,798
70 million annually just to buy users
9852
08:18:20,240 --> 08:18:24,878
with cash incentives.
9853
08:18:22,798 --> 08:18:27,520
They were hemorrhaging money at a
9854
08:18:24,878 --> 08:18:30,080
terrifying rate. Investors were
9855
08:18:27,520 --> 08:18:32,798
panicking. Board members were demanding
9856
08:18:30,080 --> 08:18:35,280
answers.
9857
08:18:32,798 --> 08:18:38,878
How long can you sustain spending $10
9858
08:18:35,280 --> 08:18:41,920
million a month buying users?
9859
08:18:38,878 --> 08:18:44,958
But Theel had done the mathematics. He
9860
08:18:41,920 --> 08:18:47,920
had run the numbers obsessively.
9861
08:18:44,958 --> 08:18:51,680
Each acquired user was worth $100 to
9862
08:18:47,920 --> 08:18:54,558
$200 in lifetime transaction fee revenue
9863
08:18:51,680 --> 08:18:59,040
through the PayPal network. They were
9864
08:18:54,558 --> 08:19:02,240
buying $100 bills for $20 bills. It was
9865
08:18:59,040 --> 08:19:05,520
either genius or insanity depending on
9866
08:19:02,240 --> 08:19:07,920
whether the math actually worked. The
9867
08:19:05,520 --> 08:19:10,240
believed it would work. He bet
9868
08:19:07,920 --> 08:19:13,360
everything on it. But there was a
9869
08:19:10,240 --> 08:19:16,798
problem. a major problem. Another
9870
08:19:13,360 --> 08:19:20,398
company was doing the exact same thing.
9871
08:19:16,798 --> 08:19:23,840
X.com, a finance company founded by Elon
9872
08:19:20,398 --> 08:19:25,840
Musk with money from his Zip 2 exit and
9873
08:19:23,840 --> 08:19:30,160
a vision for online banking that was
9874
08:19:25,840 --> 08:19:33,760
nearly identical to PayPal's.
9875
08:19:30,160 --> 08:19:36,638
Two companies, same idea, same market,
9876
08:19:33,760 --> 08:19:40,240
both burning massive amounts of cash at
9877
08:19:36,638 --> 08:19:42,878
completely unsustainable rates. Total
9878
08:19:40,240 --> 08:19:45,920
funding raised between both companies
9879
08:19:42,878 --> 08:19:49,280
over $100 million.
9880
08:19:45,920 --> 08:19:52,240
Combined monthly cash burn rate over $20
9881
08:19:49,280 --> 08:19:54,958
million time until both companies
9882
08:19:52,240 --> 08:19:58,160
simultaneously ran out of money less
9883
08:19:54,958 --> 08:20:00,958
than 6 months.
9884
08:19:58,160 --> 08:20:04,558
The merger was inevitable.
9885
08:20:00,958 --> 08:20:07,600
X.com and Confinity merged into a single
9886
08:20:04,558 --> 08:20:09,920
entity. The combined company kept the
9887
08:20:07,600 --> 08:20:13,680
PayPal name because users had already
9888
08:20:09,920 --> 08:20:16,240
adopted it. The brand had momentum. Elon
9889
08:20:13,680 --> 08:20:21,638
Musk became chief executive officer of
9890
08:20:16,240 --> 08:20:21,638
the merged company for 5 months.
9891
08:20:22,958 --> 08:20:29,280
October 2000, while Elon Musk was on his
9892
08:20:26,638 --> 08:20:32,000
honeymoon, the board of directors led by
9893
08:20:29,280 --> 08:20:35,200
Peter Theel and other Confinity founders
9894
08:20:32,000 --> 08:20:37,760
held an emergency meeting and voted Musk
9895
08:20:35,200 --> 08:20:40,478
out as CEO.
9896
08:20:37,760 --> 08:20:43,600
The official reason cited strategic
9897
08:20:40,478 --> 08:20:46,878
disagreements over technology platform.
9898
08:20:43,600 --> 08:20:49,200
Musk wanted to use Microsoft software.
9899
08:20:46,878 --> 08:20:53,040
The Confinity engineers believed in
9900
08:20:49,200 --> 08:20:56,798
Unixbased systems. The actual reason
9901
08:20:53,040 --> 08:21:00,638
Theel wanted control, full control. This
9902
08:20:56,798 --> 08:21:02,798
was his company now.
9903
08:21:00,638 --> 08:21:06,160
Peter Theel became chief executive
9904
08:21:02,798 --> 08:21:08,638
officer of PayPal. Elon Musk remained a
9905
08:21:06,160 --> 08:21:12,398
major shareholder, but his operational
9906
08:21:08,638 --> 08:21:15,280
control was finished.
9907
08:21:12,398 --> 08:21:17,680
The two men, both future billionaires,
9908
08:21:15,280 --> 08:21:21,920
both future power brokers, had their
9909
08:21:17,680 --> 08:21:24,718
first battle. feel one. At its core,
9910
08:21:21,920 --> 08:21:27,360
PayPal ran on a simple idea that turned
9911
08:21:24,718 --> 08:21:29,920
into a powerful engine.
9912
08:21:27,360 --> 08:21:34,000
Every time money moved, PayPal took a
9913
08:21:29,920 --> 08:21:36,478
small cut, 2.9% plus 30 cents per
9914
08:21:34,000 --> 08:21:39,120
transaction. If that money crossed
9915
08:21:36,478 --> 08:21:41,600
borders, the fee climbed to between 2
9916
08:21:39,120 --> 08:21:43,760
1/2 and 4%.
9917
08:21:41,600 --> 08:21:45,680
Then there was the float. The cash
9918
08:21:43,760 --> 08:21:48,240
sitting in PayPal's accounts between
9919
08:21:45,680 --> 08:21:51,600
payments, quietly earning interest for
9920
08:21:48,240 --> 08:21:53,840
the company. Tiny slices repeated
9921
08:21:51,600 --> 08:21:56,958
millions of times.
9922
08:21:53,840 --> 08:22:00,718
By 2001, the numbers told the story of a
9923
08:21:56,958 --> 08:22:03,600
system coming to life. Every single day,
9924
08:22:00,718 --> 08:22:06,638
5 to8 million flowed through PayPal's
9925
08:22:03,600 --> 08:22:11,600
network. Each month, that translated
9926
08:22:06,638 --> 08:22:14,558
into 10 to$15 million in revenue.
9927
08:22:11,600 --> 08:22:17,120
But growth at this speed came at a cost.
9928
08:22:14,558 --> 08:22:20,000
Running the system, fighting fraud,
9929
08:22:17,120 --> 08:22:25,120
scaling infrastructure, acquiring users
9930
08:22:20,000 --> 08:22:27,440
was burning 20 to30 million every month.
9931
08:22:25,120 --> 08:22:29,840
The machine worked, it just wasn't
9932
08:22:27,440 --> 08:22:31,840
profitable yet.
9933
08:22:29,840 --> 08:22:34,398
Late 2000,
9934
08:22:31,840 --> 08:22:38,080
PayPal's data scientists discovered
9935
08:22:34,398 --> 08:22:40,478
something crucial. 70% of all PayPal
9936
08:22:38,080 --> 08:22:42,160
transactions were happening on eBay
9937
08:22:40,478 --> 08:22:44,398
auctions.
9938
08:22:42,160 --> 08:22:46,958
People buying and selling random items
9939
08:22:44,398 --> 08:22:50,398
on the internet's largest marketplace
9940
08:22:46,958 --> 08:22:52,718
were using PayPal to move money. The
9941
08:22:50,398 --> 08:22:56,080
strategic insight became immediately
9942
08:22:52,718 --> 08:23:00,240
clear. Make PayPal the only payment
9943
08:22:56,080 --> 08:23:04,240
method that eBay users trust completely.
9944
08:23:00,240 --> 08:23:06,878
Own that market, become indispensable.
9945
08:23:04,240 --> 08:23:09,200
The execution buyer protection
9946
08:23:06,878 --> 08:23:12,000
guarantees that eBay's own payment
9947
08:23:09,200 --> 08:23:14,638
system did not offer
9948
08:23:12,000 --> 08:23:18,520
instant payment transfers with no 7-day
9949
08:23:14,638 --> 08:23:18,520
check clearing period.
9950
08:23:18,958 --> 08:23:24,080
Fraud detection algorithms that were
9951
08:23:21,120 --> 08:23:26,958
better than credit card companies. Email
9952
08:23:24,080 --> 08:23:31,440
notifications for every transaction.
9953
08:23:26,958 --> 08:23:34,798
Simple, clean user interface.
9954
08:23:31,440 --> 08:23:38,558
By mid 2001, the strategy was working
9955
08:23:34,798 --> 08:23:41,280
beyond all projections. 50% of all eBay
9956
08:23:38,558 --> 08:23:44,958
auctions accepted PayPal as a payment
9957
08:23:41,280 --> 08:23:47,440
method. PayPal was processing $50
9958
08:23:44,958 --> 08:23:50,398
million daily in eBay related
9959
08:23:47,440 --> 08:23:55,600
transactions alone. And then eBay
9960
08:23:50,398 --> 08:23:57,600
noticed and eBay was not happy.
9961
08:23:55,600 --> 08:24:00,000
eBay launched their own competing
9962
08:23:57,600 --> 08:24:02,798
service called Billpoint and attempted
9963
08:24:00,000 --> 08:24:04,958
to kill PayPal through the marketplace.
9964
08:24:02,798 --> 08:24:08,000
They promoted Billoint in search
9965
08:24:04,958 --> 08:24:10,718
rankings. They penalized sellers who
9966
08:24:08,000 --> 08:24:13,840
only accepted PayPal. They made it
9967
08:24:10,718 --> 08:24:15,600
harder to display the PayPal logo. It
9968
08:24:13,840 --> 08:24:18,638
was war.
9969
08:24:15,600 --> 08:24:21,280
PayPal's response was total war.
9970
08:24:18,638 --> 08:24:23,840
Temporarily lower transaction fees to
9971
08:24:21,280 --> 08:24:26,000
undercut Bill.
9972
08:24:23,840 --> 08:24:29,200
Guarantee faster money transfers than
9973
08:24:26,000 --> 08:24:32,878
eBay could offer. Invest heavily in
9974
08:24:29,200 --> 08:24:35,920
superior $30 million deployed in 2001
9975
08:24:32,878 --> 08:24:38,478
fraud protection. Massive marketing
9976
08:24:35,920 --> 08:24:42,240
spending alone.
9977
08:24:38,478 --> 08:24:46,558
By early 2002, the war was over. PayPal
9978
08:24:42,240 --> 08:24:50,558
controlled 65% of eBay's payment market.
9979
08:24:46,558 --> 08:24:52,878
Bill point at barely 10%.
9980
08:24:50,558 --> 08:24:55,200
eBay executives looked at the numbers
9981
08:24:52,878 --> 08:25:00,478
and reached the conclusion, if you
9982
08:24:55,200 --> 08:25:04,718
cannot beat them, buy them. July 2002,
9983
08:25:00,478 --> 08:25:06,798
eBay acquires PayPal for $1.5 billion in
9984
08:25:04,718 --> 08:25:10,478
eBay stock.
9985
08:25:06,798 --> 08:25:12,958
Peter Theal owned approximately $3.7% of
9986
08:25:10,478 --> 08:25:16,558
PayPal at the time of the acquisition.
9987
08:25:12,958 --> 08:25:20,080
His equity stake was worth $55 million
9988
08:25:16,558 --> 08:25:22,558
in eBay stock. After taxes, he walked
9989
08:25:20,080 --> 08:25:26,478
away with approximately $40 million in
9990
08:25:22,558 --> 08:25:30,080
liquid wealth. At age 34, he had won his
9991
08:25:26,478 --> 08:25:32,080
first billion dollar game.
9992
08:25:30,080 --> 08:25:35,360
But the money was not the most valuable
9993
08:25:32,080 --> 08:25:39,440
thing he extracted from PayPal. The real
9994
08:25:35,360 --> 08:25:41,840
value was the network, the PayPal mafia,
9995
08:25:39,440 --> 08:25:45,760
the name they gave themselves. And it
9996
08:25:41,840 --> 08:25:48,638
was not ironic. It was descriptive. The
9997
08:25:45,760 --> 08:25:50,718
core team that Theel assembled at PayPal
9998
08:25:48,638 --> 08:25:53,920
would go on to create some of the most
9999
08:25:50,718 --> 08:25:59,920
valuable companies in human history.
10000
08:25:53,920 --> 08:26:04,718
Elon Musk Tesla Market Cap $650 billion.
10001
08:25:59,920 --> 08:26:07,840
SpaceX estimated value $150 billion.
10002
08:26:04,718 --> 08:26:10,798
Reed Hoffman LinkedIn sold to Microsoft
10003
08:26:07,840 --> 08:26:14,878
for $26 billion.
10004
08:26:10,798 --> 08:26:19,680
Steve Chen, Chad Hurley, Jawed Kareem.
10005
08:26:14,878 --> 08:26:24,520
YouTube sold to Google for 1.65 billion,
10006
08:26:19,680 --> 08:26:24,520
now worth over 100 billion.
10007
08:26:24,798 --> 08:26:31,520
Jeremy Stoppleman and Russell Simmons,
10008
08:26:27,440 --> 08:26:34,558
Yelp, peaked at $3 billion market cap.
10009
08:26:31,520 --> 08:26:37,680
David Saxs, Yammer, sold to Microsoft
10010
08:26:34,558 --> 08:26:40,638
for $1.2 billion.
10011
08:26:37,680 --> 08:26:44,878
later founded Craft Ventures. Max
10012
08:26:40,638 --> 08:26:50,000
Levchin, a firm $12 billion company.
10013
08:26:44,878 --> 08:26:52,798
Also co-founded Yelp. Keith Rabo, COO of
10014
08:26:50,000 --> 08:26:57,478
Square, partner at Founders Fund,
10015
08:26:52,798 --> 08:26:57,478
investor in dozens of unicorns.
10016
08:26:57,600 --> 08:27:04,318
Roloff Bofer, partner at Seoia Capital,
10017
08:27:01,520 --> 08:27:08,878
led investments in Instagram, YouTube,
10018
08:27:04,318 --> 08:27:11,920
Tumblr, MongoDB, Eventbrite.
10019
08:27:08,878 --> 08:27:13,840
Total value created by the PayPal mafia
10020
08:27:11,920 --> 08:27:17,360
across all their companies,
10021
08:27:13,840 --> 08:27:19,760
conservatively estimated at over $200
10022
08:27:17,360 --> 08:27:22,080
billion in combined market
10023
08:27:19,760 --> 08:27:24,240
capitalization.
10024
08:27:22,080 --> 08:27:26,080
Field's ownership stakes across this
10025
08:27:24,240 --> 08:27:29,280
extended network through direct
10026
08:27:26,080 --> 08:27:32,478
investments and fund positions estimated
10027
08:27:29,280 --> 08:27:34,398
at 2 to4 billion.
10028
08:27:32,478 --> 08:27:37,600
This was not just a company that got
10029
08:27:34,398 --> 08:27:40,478
acquired. This was the creation of the
10030
08:27:37,600 --> 08:27:43,878
most powerful business cartel in Silicon
10031
08:27:40,478 --> 08:27:43,878
Valley history.
10032
08:27:44,080 --> 08:27:49,600
But what made PayPal different was not
10033
08:27:46,638 --> 08:27:52,000
the technology. Not really. The
10034
08:27:49,600 --> 08:27:53,600
technology was impressive but not
10035
08:27:52,000 --> 08:27:55,680
miraculous.
10036
08:27:53,600 --> 08:27:58,478
What made PayPal different was the
10037
08:27:55,680 --> 08:28:00,318
culture, the religion of extreme
10038
08:27:58,478 --> 08:28:03,360
meritocracy.
10039
08:28:00,318 --> 08:28:05,280
The hiring criteria were brutally
10040
08:28:03,360 --> 08:28:09,120
specific.
10041
08:28:05,280 --> 08:28:12,478
One raw intelligence, high test scores,
10042
08:28:09,120 --> 08:28:14,398
ability to solve complex puzzles, proof
10043
08:28:12,478 --> 08:28:17,920
you could think better than everyone
10044
08:28:14,398 --> 08:28:20,958
else. Two, intensity.
10045
08:28:17,920 --> 08:28:22,878
Are you willing to work 100hour weeks?
10046
08:28:20,958 --> 08:28:25,600
Are you willing to sacrifice everything
10047
08:28:22,878 --> 08:28:29,360
else in your life for the mission?
10048
08:28:25,600 --> 08:28:32,160
Three, missionary zeal. Do you actually
10049
08:28:29,360 --> 08:28:34,878
believe we are changing the world or are
10050
08:28:32,160 --> 08:28:38,160
you here for a paycheck?
10051
08:28:34,878 --> 08:28:40,318
Four, loyalty to the tribe. Will you
10052
08:28:38,160 --> 08:28:43,680
protect the other members? Will you put
10053
08:28:40,318 --> 08:28:47,040
the group above yourself?
10054
08:28:43,680 --> 08:28:52,558
Average employee age at PayPal 25 years
10055
08:28:47,040 --> 08:28:54,878
old. Average work week 80 to 100 hours.
10056
08:28:52,558 --> 08:28:57,440
Office culture libertarian,
10057
08:28:54,878 --> 08:28:59,280
anti-regulation, contrarian,
10058
08:28:57,440 --> 08:29:01,360
anti-establishment.
10059
08:28:59,280 --> 08:29:03,840
They called themselves the mafia
10060
08:29:01,360 --> 08:29:07,398
specifically because loyalty mattered
10061
08:29:03,840 --> 08:29:07,398
more than credentials,
10062
08:29:08,638 --> 08:29:14,160
more than degrees, more than previous
10063
08:29:10,798 --> 08:29:17,040
experience. Theel's operating principle
10064
08:29:14,160 --> 08:29:19,360
stated explicitly and repeatedly,
10065
08:29:17,040 --> 08:29:21,600
talented people do not want to work with
10066
08:29:19,360 --> 08:29:25,120
people who are less talented than they
10067
08:29:21,600 --> 08:29:27,200
are. So every new hire must be more
10068
08:29:25,120 --> 08:29:30,558
talented than the average current
10069
08:29:27,200 --> 08:29:33,280
employee. Otherwise, we are diluting the
10070
08:29:30,558 --> 08:29:36,638
talent pool. This created a
10071
08:29:33,280 --> 08:29:39,760
self-reinforcing escalation, an arms
10072
08:29:36,638 --> 08:29:42,958
race of hiring. Every new person raised
10073
08:29:39,760 --> 08:29:46,558
the bar. The standards became higher and
10074
08:29:42,958 --> 08:29:49,360
higher. Only the absolute best could get
10075
08:29:46,558 --> 08:29:52,398
in. And once you were in, you were
10076
08:29:49,360 --> 08:29:54,878
family. But here is what most people
10077
08:29:52,398 --> 08:29:56,958
forget about PayPal. Here is the
10078
08:29:54,878 --> 08:29:59,760
original vision that got erased from the
10079
08:29:56,958 --> 08:30:02,878
mythology. PayPal was supposed to
10080
08:29:59,760 --> 08:30:05,200
destroy the Federal Reserve. It was
10081
08:30:02,878 --> 08:30:08,558
supposed to undermine state control of
10082
08:30:05,200 --> 08:30:10,318
currency. That was the actual mission.
10083
08:30:08,558 --> 08:30:15,120
That was why Peter Theal, the
10084
08:30:10,318 --> 08:30:17,680
libertarian ideologue, cared so much.
10085
08:30:15,120 --> 08:30:20,558
The original vision laid out in Theo's
10086
08:30:17,680 --> 08:30:24,000
founding documents create a new digital
10087
08:30:20,558 --> 08:30:26,718
currency outside government control.
10088
08:30:24,000 --> 08:30:29,760
Enable true peer-to-peer transactions
10089
08:30:26,718 --> 08:30:32,080
globally without state intermediaries.
10090
08:30:29,760 --> 08:30:34,958
Undermine the state monopoly on money
10091
08:30:32,080 --> 08:30:37,520
creation and management.
10092
08:30:34,958 --> 08:30:39,760
build the financial infrastructure for a
10093
08:30:37,520 --> 08:30:42,240
stateless society.
10094
08:30:39,760 --> 08:30:45,200
What actually happened? To become
10095
08:30:42,240 --> 08:30:47,680
mainstream, to actually scale, PayPal
10096
08:30:45,200 --> 08:30:50,000
had to compromise every single founding
10097
08:30:47,680 --> 08:30:52,958
principle. They had to integrate with
10098
08:30:50,000 --> 08:30:55,920
the traditional banking system, the
10099
08:30:52,958 --> 08:30:58,160
enemy. They had to comply with know your
10100
08:30:55,920 --> 08:30:59,680
customer and anti-moneyaundering
10101
08:30:58,160 --> 08:31:01,840
regulations,
10102
08:30:59,680 --> 08:31:03,680
government control.
10103
08:31:01,840 --> 08:31:06,398
They had to partner with credit card
10104
08:31:03,680 --> 08:31:09,200
companies. The old system they wanted to
10105
08:31:06,398 --> 08:31:12,718
destroy. They had to get licensed in
10106
08:31:09,200 --> 08:31:14,638
every single state. Regulatory capture.
10107
08:31:12,718 --> 08:31:17,520
They had to report suspicious
10108
08:31:14,638 --> 08:31:21,040
transactions to federal authorities.
10109
08:31:17,520 --> 08:31:24,798
Surveillance. By 2002, PayPal was
10110
08:31:21,040 --> 08:31:27,520
regulated exactly like a bank. Partnered
10111
08:31:24,798 --> 08:31:30,398
with banks, dependent on banks for all
10112
08:31:27,520 --> 08:31:32,638
core functionalities. The libertarian
10113
08:31:30,398 --> 08:31:34,718
revolution had become just another
10114
08:31:32,638 --> 08:31:37,040
fintech company playing by the
10115
08:31:34,718 --> 08:31:39,360
government's rules.
10116
08:31:37,040 --> 08:31:41,440
The learned the most important lesson of
10117
08:31:39,360 --> 08:31:44,318
his career from PayPal's failure to
10118
08:31:41,440 --> 08:31:46,798
achieve its revolutionary mission. You
10119
08:31:44,318 --> 08:31:49,680
cannot disrupt the system from inside
10120
08:31:46,798 --> 08:31:52,000
the system. If you want to change the
10121
08:31:49,680 --> 08:31:54,878
rules, you cannot ask permission from
10122
08:31:52,000 --> 08:31:57,600
the people who wrote them. This lesson
10123
08:31:54,878 --> 08:32:01,718
would shape everything he did next.
10124
08:31:57,600 --> 08:32:01,718
Palanteer, Facebook,
10125
08:32:01,840 --> 08:32:08,160
his political investments, everything.
10126
08:32:05,920 --> 08:32:11,280
The PayPal acquisition was not an
10127
08:32:08,160 --> 08:32:14,000
ending. It was a beginning, the start of
10128
08:32:11,280 --> 08:32:17,040
something much larger. The pattern that
10129
08:32:14,000 --> 08:32:19,360
emerged over the next 20 years. PayPal
10130
08:32:17,040 --> 08:32:21,600
veterans leave and start new companies
10131
08:32:19,360 --> 08:32:24,798
in different sectors.
10132
08:32:21,600 --> 08:32:27,680
Theel invests early as angel investor or
10133
08:32:24,798 --> 08:32:29,520
through founders fund. PayPal mafia
10134
08:32:27,680 --> 08:32:32,318
members join each other's boards of
10135
08:32:29,520 --> 08:32:35,280
directors. Cross investment between all
10136
08:32:32,318 --> 08:32:37,920
their venture funds creates alignment.
10137
08:32:35,280 --> 08:32:40,240
Preferential access to deal flow because
10138
08:32:37,920 --> 08:32:42,160
of network relationships.
10139
08:32:40,240 --> 08:32:44,958
Shared intelligence about markets,
10140
08:32:42,160 --> 08:32:46,878
technology, and opportunities.
10141
08:32:44,958 --> 08:32:50,398
Real examples of how the network
10142
08:32:46,878 --> 08:32:54,000
compounds. Reed Hoffman introduces Theel
10143
08:32:50,398 --> 08:32:58,000
to Mark Zuckerberg in 2004.
10144
08:32:54,000 --> 08:33:01,680
Theel invests $500,000 in Facebook,
10145
08:32:58,000 --> 08:33:04,878
eventually makes over $1 billion.
10146
08:33:01,680 --> 08:33:07,040
Roloff Bother joins Sequoia Capital and
10147
08:33:04,878 --> 08:33:09,520
invests in multiple Theelbacked
10148
08:33:07,040 --> 08:33:11,120
companies, creating reciprocal deal
10149
08:33:09,520 --> 08:33:13,680
flows.
10150
08:33:11,120 --> 08:33:16,638
David Saxs hosts high dollar fundraisers
10151
08:33:13,680 --> 08:33:20,920
for Theo's political candidates, mixing
10152
08:33:16,638 --> 08:33:20,920
business and politics seamlessly.
10153
08:33:21,040 --> 08:33:27,200
Max Levchim provides seed capital for
10154
08:33:23,680 --> 08:33:29,200
Palanteer and serves as advisor lending
10155
08:33:27,200 --> 08:33:31,440
credibility.
10156
08:33:29,200 --> 08:33:35,440
This network effect multiplier is
10157
08:33:31,440 --> 08:33:38,958
precisely how Theel turned $55 million
10158
08:33:35,440 --> 08:33:40,958
from PayPal into over $5 billion in net
10159
08:33:38,958 --> 08:33:44,318
worth today.
10160
08:33:40,958 --> 08:33:46,798
The PayPal mafia is not a cute nickname.
10161
08:33:44,318 --> 08:33:49,360
It is not a metaphor. It is the most
10162
08:33:46,798 --> 08:33:51,680
successful organized business cartel in
10163
08:33:49,360 --> 08:33:54,398
Silicon Valley history.
10164
08:33:51,680 --> 08:33:56,718
A self-reinforcing network of wealth,
10165
08:33:54,398 --> 08:33:59,040
power, and influence that has shaped the
10166
08:33:56,718 --> 08:34:02,240
entire technology industry for two
10167
08:33:59,040 --> 08:34:07,318
decades. And Peter Theal sits at the
10168
08:34:02,240 --> 08:34:07,318
center of it all. The Godfather.
10169
08:34:12,638 --> 08:34:17,840
After PayPal, Peter Theel was a man with
10170
08:34:15,600 --> 08:34:21,040
a billion dollars and a dangerous
10171
08:34:17,840 --> 08:34:22,798
secret. While other investors were
10172
08:34:21,040 --> 08:34:25,520
looking at spreadsheets and profit
10173
08:34:22,798 --> 08:34:27,840
margins, Theel was looking at the human
10174
08:34:25,520 --> 08:34:29,840
soul through the eyes of his mentor,
10175
08:34:27,840 --> 08:34:33,120
Renee Gerard.
10176
08:34:29,840 --> 08:34:36,558
Gerard taught him a terrifying truth.
10177
08:34:33,120 --> 08:34:39,680
Human beings don't know what they want.
10178
08:34:36,558 --> 08:34:42,398
We are mimemetic creatures. We don't
10179
08:34:39,680 --> 08:34:44,958
desire things for themselves. We desire
10180
08:34:42,398 --> 08:34:47,440
them because other people desire them.
10181
08:34:44,958 --> 08:34:50,398
We are copy machines disguised as
10182
08:34:47,440 --> 08:34:52,958
individuals.
10183
08:34:50,398 --> 08:34:55,760
August 2004.
10184
08:34:52,958 --> 08:34:59,040
Facebook has been online for exactly 6
10185
08:34:55,760 --> 08:35:01,520
months. It started as a Harvard dorm
10186
08:34:59,040 --> 08:35:04,478
project and has now expanded to several
10187
08:35:01,520 --> 08:35:07,760
college campuses.
10188
08:35:04,478 --> 08:35:11,600
The metrics that Zuckerberg shows Theel
10189
08:35:07,760 --> 08:35:14,958
total registered users 200,000
10190
08:35:11,600 --> 08:35:18,558
almost entirely college students
10191
08:35:14,958 --> 08:35:20,160
daily active user rate 70 to 80%
10192
08:35:18,558 --> 08:35:24,958
engagement
10193
08:35:20,160 --> 08:35:27,840
unprecedented in web services revenue $0
10194
08:35:24,958 --> 08:35:31,920
no business model yet valuation
10195
08:35:27,840 --> 08:35:33,760
Zuckerberg is asking for $5 million
10196
08:35:31,920 --> 08:35:36,318
every single professional venture
10197
08:35:33,760 --> 08:35:39,120
capitalist in Silicon Valley has passed
10198
08:35:36,318 --> 08:35:42,240
on Facebook. Every major firm has looked
10199
08:35:39,120 --> 08:35:45,600
into it and said no. The reasons they
10200
08:35:42,240 --> 08:35:49,280
gave it is just a college directory.
10201
08:35:45,600 --> 08:35:51,520
Limited market. Fster has already 5
10202
08:35:49,280 --> 08:35:54,558
million users and is the leader in
10203
08:35:51,520 --> 08:35:57,600
social networking. MySpace is dominant
10204
08:35:54,558 --> 08:36:00,080
with 8 million users and growing fast.
10205
08:35:57,600 --> 08:36:03,520
There is no obvious business model or
10206
08:36:00,080 --> 08:36:06,798
revenue stream. Mark Zuckerberg is too
10207
08:36:03,520 --> 08:36:09,280
young, too inexperienced, too risky as a
10208
08:36:06,798 --> 08:36:11,600
founder.
10209
08:36:09,280 --> 08:36:14,160
Peter Theel saw something completely
10210
08:36:11,600 --> 08:36:16,318
different, something that had nothing to
10211
08:36:14,160 --> 08:36:18,718
do with technology.
10212
08:36:16,318 --> 08:36:21,760
The had spent years studying Renee
10213
08:36:18,718 --> 08:36:23,760
Gerard's mimemetic theory, the
10214
08:36:21,760 --> 08:36:27,120
philosophical framework that would shape
10215
08:36:23,760 --> 08:36:30,160
his entire investment approach, the core
10216
08:36:27,120 --> 08:36:31,440
idea, humans do not have original
10217
08:36:30,160 --> 08:36:34,878
desires.
10218
08:36:31,440 --> 08:36:37,200
We desire what other people desire. We
10219
08:36:34,878 --> 08:36:41,280
learn what to want by watching other
10220
08:36:37,200 --> 08:36:46,240
people want. Desire is imitative.
10221
08:36:41,280 --> 08:36:48,398
Desire is social. Desire is mimemetic.
10222
08:36:46,240 --> 08:36:50,398
When Theel looked at Facebook, he did
10223
08:36:48,398 --> 08:36:53,200
not see a technology platform for
10224
08:36:50,398 --> 08:36:55,600
connecting friends. He saw something far
10225
08:36:53,200 --> 08:36:58,798
more powerful. He saw the perfect
10226
08:36:55,600 --> 08:37:01,840
mimemetic desire machine. The insight
10227
08:36:58,798 --> 08:37:03,840
that made Theel invest. Social networks
10228
08:37:01,840 --> 08:37:06,878
do not create value by connecting
10229
08:37:03,840 --> 08:37:09,920
people. That is not where the money is.
10230
08:37:06,878 --> 08:37:12,160
The money is in comparison. The money is
10231
08:37:09,920 --> 08:37:14,478
in making people compare themselves to
10232
08:37:12,160 --> 08:37:17,200
each other constantly.
10233
08:37:14,478 --> 08:37:20,000
You see your friend's vacation photos,
10234
08:37:17,200 --> 08:37:22,318
you want a better vacation. You see
10235
08:37:20,000 --> 08:37:24,958
someone's job promotion announcement,
10236
08:37:22,318 --> 08:37:27,600
you want higher status. You see
10237
08:37:24,958 --> 08:37:30,240
someone's relationship photos, you want
10238
08:37:27,600 --> 08:37:32,080
romance.
10239
08:37:30,240 --> 08:37:35,360
You see someone getting likes and
10240
08:37:32,080 --> 08:37:38,240
comments, you want validation.
10241
08:37:35,360 --> 08:37:41,600
You see someone's perfect life, you feel
10242
08:37:38,240 --> 08:37:44,398
your own life is inadequate.
10243
08:37:41,600 --> 08:37:48,240
Facebook was not selling connections.
10244
08:37:44,398 --> 08:37:50,558
Facebook was selling envy. And envy the
10245
08:37:48,240 --> 08:37:52,798
understood from Gerard is the most
10246
08:37:50,558 --> 08:37:54,080
powerful economic force in human
10247
08:37:52,798 --> 08:37:57,280
history.
10248
08:37:54,080 --> 08:38:00,080
The desire for what others have. They
10249
08:37:57,280 --> 08:38:03,360
need to keep up. The fear of being left
10250
08:38:00,080 --> 08:38:06,798
behind. Infinite envy creates infinite
10251
08:38:03,360 --> 08:38:09,120
demand. Infinite demand creates infinite
10252
08:38:06,798 --> 08:38:11,600
value.
10253
08:38:09,120 --> 08:38:15,520
September 2004.
10254
08:38:11,600 --> 08:38:17,440
Peter Theal wires $500,000 to Facebook
10255
08:38:15,520 --> 08:38:21,680
incororated.
10256
08:38:17,440 --> 08:38:24,558
The deal terms 10.2% equity ownership in
10257
08:38:21,680 --> 08:38:26,318
the company. A board seat giving him
10258
08:38:24,558 --> 08:38:28,000
governance rights and inside
10259
08:38:26,318 --> 08:38:30,878
information.
10260
08:38:28,000 --> 08:38:34,240
Right of first refusal on all future
10261
08:38:30,878 --> 08:38:37,040
funding rounds. Post money valuation of
10262
08:38:34,240 --> 08:38:39,120
exactly $5 million.
10263
08:38:37,040 --> 08:38:42,398
Mark Zuckerberg's reaction after the
10264
08:38:39,120 --> 08:38:45,360
deal closed. This guy actually gets it.
10265
08:38:42,398 --> 08:38:48,398
He understands what we are building.
10266
08:38:45,360 --> 08:38:50,318
Silicon Valley's reaction. Peter Theal
10267
08:38:48,398 --> 08:38:53,440
just threw away half a million dollars
10268
08:38:50,318 --> 08:38:56,000
on a college kid's website. This will be
10269
08:38:53,440 --> 08:38:58,318
his biggest failure.
10270
08:38:56,000 --> 08:39:03,440
What happened next rewrote the history
10271
08:38:58,318 --> 08:39:08,160
of venture capital. 2004 end of year.
10272
08:39:03,440 --> 08:39:12,240
200,000 users grew to 1 million users.
10273
08:39:08,160 --> 08:39:15,760
Five times growth in 4 months. 2005
10274
08:39:12,240 --> 08:39:21,280
1 million users becomes 5.5 million
10275
08:39:15,760 --> 08:39:26,160
users. 2006 5.5 million users becomes 12
10276
08:39:21,280 --> 08:39:30,958
million users. 2007 12 million users
10277
08:39:26,160 --> 08:39:33,840
exploded to 50 million users. 2008 50
10278
08:39:30,958 --> 08:39:35,680
million users doubles to 100 million
10279
08:39:33,840 --> 08:39:37,200
users.
10280
08:39:35,680 --> 08:39:40,798
2009
10281
08:39:37,200 --> 08:39:44,160
100 million users becomes 350 million
10282
08:39:40,798 --> 08:39:47,280
users. growth rate. The user base was
10283
08:39:44,160 --> 08:39:49,680
doubling every 6 to9 months for five
10284
08:39:47,280 --> 08:39:52,240
consecutive years.
10285
08:39:49,680 --> 08:39:54,958
This growth curve had never been seen
10286
08:39:52,240 --> 08:39:58,478
before in business history. Not even
10287
08:39:54,958 --> 08:40:00,958
close. As Facebook grew, its valuation
10288
08:39:58,478 --> 08:40:03,280
grew and Peter Theel's stake grew with
10289
08:40:00,958 --> 08:40:05,440
it.
10290
08:40:03,280 --> 08:40:09,200
May 2005,
10291
08:40:05,440 --> 08:40:12,080
Axel Partners invests $12.7 million at
10292
08:40:09,200 --> 08:40:15,840
$100 million valuation.
10293
08:40:12,080 --> 08:40:19,360
Field's 10.2% stake is now worth $10.2
10294
08:40:15,840 --> 08:40:22,000
million. He has achieved 20 times return
10295
08:40:19,360 --> 08:40:25,520
in 9 months.
10296
08:40:22,000 --> 08:40:29,840
April 2006, Greylock Partners and
10297
08:40:25,520 --> 08:40:32,558
Meritech Capital invest $27.5 million at
10298
08:40:29,840 --> 08:40:36,000
$500 million valuation.
10299
08:40:32,558 --> 08:40:38,318
Theel stake is now worth $51 million,
10300
08:40:36,000 --> 08:40:40,000
100 times return on his original
10301
08:40:38,318 --> 08:40:42,478
investment.
10302
08:40:40,000 --> 08:40:47,040
October 2007,
10303
08:40:42,478 --> 08:40:50,718
Microsoft invests $240 million, valuing
10304
08:40:47,040 --> 08:40:55,120
Facebook at $15 billion.
10305
08:40:50,718 --> 08:40:59,680
Theel stake is now worth $1.5 billion, a
10306
08:40:55,120 --> 08:41:02,638
300,000 times return in 3 years.
10307
08:40:59,680 --> 08:41:05,040
2009 through 2011,
10308
08:41:02,638 --> 08:41:08,160
multiple private sales and secondary
10309
08:41:05,040 --> 08:41:10,000
transactions value Facebook at $50
10310
08:41:08,160 --> 08:41:12,958
billion.
10311
08:41:10,000 --> 08:41:16,398
The stake, if he had held everything,
10312
08:41:12,958 --> 08:41:19,760
would be worth $5 billion.
10313
08:41:16,398 --> 08:41:22,160
May 18th, 2012.
10314
08:41:19,760 --> 08:41:27,040
Facebook goes public at a market
10315
08:41:22,160 --> 08:41:29,680
capitalization of $14 billion.
10316
08:41:27,040 --> 08:41:32,878
But Theel does not hold everything. He
10317
08:41:29,680 --> 08:41:36,160
is strategic. He is tactical. He takes
10318
08:41:32,878 --> 08:41:40,160
profits. At the initial public offering,
10319
08:41:36,160 --> 08:41:41,920
Theel sells $640 million worth of shares
10320
08:41:40,160 --> 08:41:44,160
immediately.
10321
08:41:41,920 --> 08:41:46,318
Over the following 6 months, he sells
10322
08:41:44,160 --> 08:41:48,718
the remainder of his stake in carefully
10323
08:41:46,318 --> 08:41:50,958
timed transactions.
10324
08:41:48,718 --> 08:41:55,680
Total cash realized from the Facebook
10325
08:41:50,958 --> 08:41:58,958
investment approximately $1 billion.
10326
08:41:55,680 --> 08:42:00,958
Initial investment in August 2004,
10327
08:41:58,958 --> 08:42:05,040
$500,000.
10328
08:42:00,958 --> 08:42:06,798
Total cash realized by end of 2012, $1
10329
08:42:05,040 --> 08:42:11,600
billion.
10330
08:42:06,798 --> 08:42:13,440
Total return 2,000 times in 8 years.
10331
08:42:11,600 --> 08:42:16,398
This is the single greatest venture
10332
08:42:13,440 --> 08:42:18,878
capital return in recorded history.
10333
08:42:16,398 --> 08:42:21,680
Nothing else comes close.
10334
08:42:18,878 --> 08:42:24,718
But here is the twist. The haunting
10335
08:42:21,680 --> 08:42:27,680
decision that Theel himself admits keeps
10336
08:42:24,718 --> 08:42:29,200
him awake at night. Selling was a
10337
08:42:27,680 --> 08:42:31,920
mistake.
10338
08:42:29,200 --> 08:42:35,280
If Peter Theal had held his original
10339
08:42:31,920 --> 08:42:37,920
10.2% stake and had never sold a single
10340
08:42:35,280 --> 08:42:41,600
share, that stake at Facebook's peak
10341
08:42:37,920 --> 08:42:45,360
market capitalization in 2021 would have
10342
08:42:41,600 --> 08:42:48,558
been worth 102 billion.
10343
08:42:45,360 --> 08:42:51,600
$12 billion.
10344
08:42:48,558 --> 08:42:53,760
He left $100 billion on the table by
10345
08:42:51,600 --> 08:42:56,000
selling early.
10346
08:42:53,760 --> 08:42:58,318
The himself admitted this publicly,
10347
08:42:56,000 --> 08:43:01,200
saying, "The mistake was not investing
10348
08:42:58,318 --> 08:43:02,798
in Facebook. The mistake was selling
10349
08:43:01,200 --> 08:43:05,520
Facebook.
10350
08:43:02,798 --> 08:43:08,080
I should have held longer. I should have
10351
08:43:05,520 --> 08:43:12,718
believed more. It is the single most
10352
08:43:08,080 --> 08:43:15,200
expensive decision of his life." Years
10353
08:43:12,718 --> 08:43:18,240
later in a Stanford lecture, Theel
10354
08:43:15,200 --> 08:43:21,760
explained his actual investment thesis,
10355
08:43:18,240 --> 08:43:23,680
the real reason he invested. I did not
10356
08:43:21,760 --> 08:43:26,478
invest in Facebook because I thought
10357
08:43:23,680 --> 08:43:28,240
social networks were going to be big. I
10358
08:43:26,478 --> 08:43:30,638
invested because I understood that
10359
08:43:28,240 --> 08:43:34,398
humans will always want to be more like
10360
08:43:30,638 --> 08:43:38,160
their peers. That desire is infinite. It
10361
08:43:34,398 --> 08:43:40,718
never stops. It only intensifies.
10362
08:43:38,160 --> 08:43:44,318
An infinite desire creates infinite
10363
08:43:40,718 --> 08:43:45,840
value. The mimemetic theory made him a
10364
08:43:44,318 --> 08:43:48,080
billionaire.
10365
08:43:45,840 --> 08:43:51,680
The mimemetic theory also made him
10366
08:43:48,080 --> 08:43:55,040
terrified of what he had helped create.
10367
08:43:51,680 --> 08:43:57,520
A machine that weaponizes human envy. A
10368
08:43:55,040 --> 08:43:59,440
system that profits from making people
10369
08:43:57,520 --> 08:44:02,080
feel inadequate.
10370
08:43:59,440 --> 08:44:04,638
An algorithm that amplifies the worst
10371
08:44:02,080 --> 08:44:06,878
aspects of human nature.
10372
08:44:04,638 --> 08:44:09,760
Peter Theal helped build the most
10373
08:44:06,878 --> 08:44:13,280
powerful behavior modification system in
10374
08:44:09,760 --> 08:44:17,160
human history. And then he cashed out
10375
08:44:13,280 --> 08:44:17,160
for a billion dollars.
10376
08:44:23,520 --> 08:44:31,360
2003 Peter Theel has a problem. It is
10377
08:44:28,160 --> 08:44:34,478
the CIA's problem, but they think the
10378
08:44:31,360 --> 08:44:37,280
can solve it. His PayPal anti-fraud
10379
08:44:34,478 --> 08:44:39,600
algorithms have become so sophisticated
10380
08:44:37,280 --> 08:44:41,920
at detecting patterns in financial
10381
08:44:39,600 --> 08:44:44,160
transactions at finding terrorists
10382
08:44:41,920 --> 08:44:47,920
trying to move money through banking
10383
08:44:44,160 --> 08:44:51,840
systems that the CIA venture capital arm
10384
08:44:47,920 --> 08:44:54,718
in QEL requested a meeting. The pitch
10385
08:44:51,840 --> 08:44:57,440
from the CIA, can you build what you
10386
08:44:54,718 --> 08:45:00,398
built for PayPal but for national
10387
08:44:57,440 --> 08:45:03,120
security? Can you find terrorists the
10388
08:45:00,398 --> 08:45:05,040
way you found fraudsters?
10389
08:45:03,120 --> 08:45:07,440
May 2003,
10390
08:45:05,040 --> 08:45:09,840
Peter Theel co-founds Palunteer
10391
08:45:07,440 --> 08:45:11,440
Technologies with an unusual group of
10392
08:45:09,840 --> 08:45:14,398
co-founders.
10393
08:45:11,440 --> 08:45:17,840
The founding team, Alex Karp, chief
10394
08:45:14,398 --> 08:45:20,240
executive officer, Stanford Law Degree,
10395
08:45:17,840 --> 08:45:22,878
philosophy, PhD from Frankfurt
10396
08:45:20,240 --> 08:45:25,520
University in Germany, former human
10397
08:45:22,878 --> 08:45:27,040
rights lawyer who once worked on refugee
10398
08:45:25,520 --> 08:45:29,600
cases.
10399
08:45:27,040 --> 08:45:31,600
an extremely odd choice to run a company
10400
08:45:29,600 --> 08:45:33,760
that will become the most powerful
10401
08:45:31,600 --> 08:45:35,280
surveillance technology provider on
10402
08:45:33,760 --> 08:45:37,840
Earth.
10403
08:45:35,280 --> 08:45:40,958
Nathan Gettings, chief technology
10404
08:45:37,840 --> 08:45:43,920
officer. PayPal's lead security
10405
08:45:40,958 --> 08:45:46,878
engineer. Brilliant programmer. Joe
10406
08:45:43,920 --> 08:45:49,840
Lonsdale, a Stamford undergraduate
10407
08:45:46,878 --> 08:45:53,440
student, barely 20 years old, one of the
10408
08:45:49,840 --> 08:45:56,558
first Theel fellows. Steven Cohen,
10409
08:45:53,440 --> 08:45:58,398
PayPal's chief security architect. The
10410
08:45:56,558 --> 08:46:01,600
person who actually built the fraud
10411
08:45:58,398 --> 08:46:03,120
detection algorithms. Initial funding $2
10412
08:46:01,600 --> 08:46:05,280
million
10413
08:46:03,120 --> 08:46:08,878
entirely from Peter Theel's personal
10414
08:46:05,280 --> 08:46:11,040
capital. No outside investors yet. This
10415
08:46:08,878 --> 08:46:13,680
is his project.
10416
08:46:11,040 --> 08:46:16,240
The mission statement. Build software
10417
08:46:13,680 --> 08:46:18,798
that can find patterns in massive data
10418
08:46:16,240 --> 08:46:20,798
sets from disperate incompatible
10419
08:46:18,798 --> 08:46:23,840
sources.
10420
08:46:20,798 --> 08:46:26,160
The kind of data that if intelligency
10421
08:46:23,840 --> 08:46:29,120
agencies had been able to analyze it
10422
08:46:26,160 --> 08:46:32,080
properly could have prevented September
10423
08:46:29,120 --> 08:46:35,680
11th, 2001.
10424
08:46:32,080 --> 08:46:38,080
The company name Palunteer named after
10425
08:46:35,680 --> 08:46:40,080
the seeing stones in Lord of the Rings,
10426
08:46:38,080 --> 08:46:42,240
the magical orbs that allow their
10427
08:46:40,080 --> 08:46:45,200
possessors to see anything happening
10428
08:46:42,240 --> 08:46:48,638
anywhere in Middle Earth. Even the name
10429
08:46:45,200 --> 08:46:50,160
revealed the ambition total information
10430
08:46:48,638 --> 08:46:55,000
awareness.
10431
08:46:50,160 --> 08:46:55,000
the ability to see everything.
10432
08:46:55,200 --> 08:47:00,240
2005,
10433
08:46:56,718 --> 08:47:03,120
the CIA's venture capital arm in CQEL
10434
08:47:00,240 --> 08:47:06,080
invest $2 million in Palanteer's series
10435
08:47:03,120 --> 08:47:08,798
A funding round. This was not just
10436
08:47:06,080 --> 08:47:11,520
money. This was validation from the
10437
08:47:08,798 --> 08:47:14,000
intelligence community. A stamp of
10438
08:47:11,520 --> 08:47:16,478
approval from the most secretive, most
10439
08:47:14,000 --> 08:47:18,080
paranoid organization in the US
10440
08:47:16,478 --> 08:47:21,920
government.
10441
08:47:18,080 --> 08:47:24,000
Initial contract value undisclosed.
10442
08:47:21,920 --> 08:47:27,360
Government intelligence contracts are
10443
08:47:24,000 --> 08:47:30,080
classified by law, but industry analysts
10444
08:47:27,360 --> 08:47:33,520
estimate the first CIA contracts were
10445
08:47:30,080 --> 08:47:36,718
worth 5 to 10 million annually.
10446
08:47:33,520 --> 08:47:39,920
The product was called Palunteer Gotham.
10447
08:47:36,718 --> 08:47:43,040
The name itself was significant. Gotham,
10448
08:47:39,920 --> 08:47:45,280
the dark city that needs Batman. The
10449
08:47:43,040 --> 08:47:48,878
city that needs surveillance to fight
10450
08:47:45,280 --> 08:47:50,878
crime. Core technical capabilities.
10451
08:47:48,878 --> 08:47:53,600
Integrate data from dozens of
10452
08:47:50,878 --> 08:47:55,600
incompatible government databases that
10453
08:47:53,600 --> 08:47:58,318
were never designed to communicate with
10454
08:47:55,600 --> 08:48:00,958
each other. From hidden connections
10455
08:47:58,318 --> 08:48:04,878
between people, places, financial
10456
08:48:00,958 --> 08:48:07,520
transactions, communications metadata,
10457
08:48:04,878 --> 08:48:09,760
visualize networks of relationships in
10458
08:48:07,520 --> 08:48:11,760
ways human analysts could understand
10459
08:48:09,760 --> 08:48:14,080
intuitively.
10460
08:48:11,760 --> 08:48:16,318
Predict future behavior and likely
10461
08:48:14,080 --> 08:48:19,280
attack patterns based on historical
10462
08:48:16,318 --> 08:48:22,160
data. Specific use cases for
10463
08:48:19,280 --> 08:48:25,120
intelligence agencies. Track terrorist
10464
08:48:22,160 --> 08:48:27,120
cells across multiple countries. Map
10465
08:48:25,120 --> 08:48:29,280
drug trafficking routes from production
10466
08:48:27,120 --> 08:48:31,440
to distribution.
10467
08:48:29,280 --> 08:48:34,398
Identify money laundering networks
10468
08:48:31,440 --> 08:48:36,878
moving funds for organized crime.
10469
08:48:34,398 --> 08:48:39,120
Predict insurgent attacks in Iraq and
10470
08:48:36,878 --> 08:48:42,798
Afghanistan based on pattern
10471
08:48:39,120 --> 08:48:46,558
recognition. It worked. The software
10472
08:48:42,798 --> 08:48:49,680
actually worked. By 2006, Palanteer
10473
08:48:46,558 --> 08:48:52,638
software was being actively used in Iraq
10474
08:48:49,680 --> 08:48:56,240
for counterinsurgency operations and in
10475
08:48:52,638 --> 08:48:58,478
IED attack prediction.
10476
08:48:56,240 --> 08:49:01,440
Afghanistan for predicting Taliban
10477
08:48:58,478 --> 08:49:05,040
leadership networks. Langley, Virginia
10478
08:49:01,440 --> 08:49:07,760
at CIA headquarters for threat analysis.
10479
08:49:05,040 --> 08:49:11,958
FBI field officers nationwide for
10480
08:49:07,760 --> 08:49:11,958
domestic terrorism investigation.
10481
08:49:12,000 --> 08:49:18,160
Early revenue growth told the story of
10482
08:49:14,160 --> 08:49:20,958
Palunteers expanding reach. 2005
10483
08:49:18,160 --> 08:49:27,280
$3 million in revenue. Government
10484
08:49:20,958 --> 08:49:32,718
contracts only. 2006 $10 million. 2007
10485
08:49:27,280 --> 08:49:37,360
$25 million. 2008 $50 million. First
10486
08:49:32,718 --> 08:49:43,840
commercial clients added 2010 $150
10487
08:49:37,360 --> 08:49:45,600
million 2012 $400 million. By 2012,
10488
08:49:43,840 --> 08:49:47,760
Palanteer had achieved something
10489
08:49:45,600 --> 08:49:51,440
extremely rare for a high- growth
10490
08:49:47,760 --> 08:49:53,680
technology company. Profitability.
10491
08:49:51,440 --> 08:49:56,638
They were actually making money, not
10492
08:49:53,680 --> 08:49:59,760
just burning venture capital. Customer
10493
08:49:56,638 --> 08:50:03,760
revenue breakdown in 2012.
10494
08:49:59,760 --> 08:50:06,318
Government contracts, 60% of revenue,
10495
08:50:03,760 --> 08:50:10,798
$240 million.
10496
08:50:06,318 --> 08:50:13,520
Commercial clients, 40% of revenue, $160
10497
08:50:10,798 --> 08:50:17,520
million.
10498
08:50:13,520 --> 08:50:19,840
May the 1st, 2011. Palanteer Software
10499
08:50:17,520 --> 08:50:23,120
plays a role in the operation that kills
10500
08:50:19,840 --> 08:50:25,360
Osama bin Laden. A role that remains
10501
08:50:23,120 --> 08:50:28,478
partially classified, but has been
10502
08:50:25,360 --> 08:50:31,280
confirmed by multiple sources.
10503
08:50:28,478 --> 08:50:33,600
How Palanteer contributed. Palanteer
10504
08:50:31,280 --> 08:50:36,000
Gotham integrated dozens of different
10505
08:50:33,600 --> 08:50:38,398
intelligence sources.
10506
08:50:36,000 --> 08:50:41,600
CIA human intelligence on career
10507
08:50:38,398 --> 08:50:44,160
networks. NSA signal intelligence
10508
08:50:41,600 --> 08:50:47,040
including phone metadata and email
10509
08:50:44,160 --> 08:50:50,160
communications patterns.
10510
08:50:47,040 --> 08:50:53,040
National Geospatial Intelligence Agency
10511
08:50:50,160 --> 08:50:54,558
satellite imagery of potential compound
10512
08:50:53,040 --> 08:50:57,040
locations.
10513
08:50:54,558 --> 08:50:59,040
historical pattern analysis of previous
10514
08:50:57,040 --> 08:51:01,840
highv value target operations in
10515
08:50:59,040 --> 08:51:03,920
Pakistan.
10516
08:51:01,840 --> 08:51:06,240
The system identified patterns and
10517
08:51:03,920 --> 08:51:08,718
connections that human analysts working
10518
08:51:06,240 --> 08:51:11,920
with separate databases that did not
10519
08:51:08,718 --> 08:51:14,160
communicate had missed. It narrowed the
10520
08:51:11,920 --> 08:51:18,638
search area and helped confirm the
10521
08:51:14,160 --> 08:51:20,718
identity of the Abotabad compound.
10522
08:51:18,638 --> 08:51:23,680
When asked about Palanteer's role in the
10523
08:51:20,718 --> 08:51:26,958
bin Laden operation, Theo gave carefully
10524
08:51:23,680 --> 08:51:29,680
worded response. I cannot comment on
10525
08:51:26,958 --> 08:51:32,718
specific operations or specific clients
10526
08:51:29,680 --> 08:51:36,398
due to classification requirements, but
10527
08:51:32,718 --> 08:51:38,638
I will say this. Tools that help protect
10528
08:51:36,398 --> 08:51:41,760
American lives and help intelligence
10529
08:51:38,638 --> 08:51:45,200
professionals do their jobs better. That
10530
08:51:41,760 --> 08:51:47,440
is our mission.
10531
08:51:45,200 --> 08:51:50,398
This single operation, this single
10532
08:51:47,440 --> 08:51:52,398
success legitimized Palanteer's entire
10533
08:51:50,398 --> 08:51:54,798
value proposition to the national
10534
08:51:52,398 --> 08:51:57,680
security establishment.
10535
08:51:54,798 --> 08:52:00,160
After bin Laden, the contracts poured
10536
08:51:57,680 --> 08:52:02,878
in.
10537
08:52:00,160 --> 08:52:05,840
After the bin Laden success, Palanteer's
10538
08:52:02,878 --> 08:52:10,398
government business exploded. Revenue
10539
08:52:05,840 --> 08:52:15,760
growth from 2012 to 2015.
10540
08:52:10,398 --> 08:52:19,200
2012, $400 million in revenue. 2013,
10541
08:52:15,760 --> 08:52:24,558
$600 million. 2014,
10542
08:52:19,200 --> 08:52:27,680
$900 million. 2015, $1.5 billion in
10543
08:52:24,558 --> 08:52:30,680
revenue. Major new contracts announced
10544
08:52:27,680 --> 08:52:30,680
publicly.
10545
08:52:32,080 --> 08:52:39,520
US Department of Defense, $222 million
10546
08:52:36,638 --> 08:52:41,280
for a 3-year data integration platform
10547
08:52:39,520 --> 08:52:45,280
contract.
10548
08:52:41,280 --> 08:52:48,398
US Army, $800 million for comprehensive
10549
08:52:45,280 --> 08:52:50,558
data platform modernization across all
10550
08:52:48,398 --> 08:52:54,718
army systems,
10551
08:52:50,558 --> 08:52:57,360
US Special Operations Command, $444
10552
08:52:54,718 --> 08:52:59,120
million for targeting and intelligence
10553
08:52:57,360 --> 08:53:02,638
fusion,
10554
08:52:59,120 --> 08:53:04,958
Department of Homeland Security, $240
10555
08:53:02,638 --> 08:53:08,000
million for border security and
10556
08:53:04,958 --> 08:53:10,478
immigration enforcement systems.
10557
08:53:08,000 --> 08:53:13,040
Palanteer had become the single most
10558
08:53:10,478 --> 08:53:14,958
important software company in the entire
10559
08:53:13,040 --> 08:53:16,558
US defense and intelligence
10560
08:53:14,958 --> 08:53:18,798
establishment,
10561
08:53:16,558 --> 08:53:22,000
more important than traditional defense
10562
08:53:18,798 --> 08:53:24,000
contractors, more embedded in classified
10563
08:53:22,000 --> 08:53:26,638
operations.
10564
08:53:24,000 --> 08:53:28,638
Simultaneously, Palanteer launched a
10565
08:53:26,638 --> 08:53:32,000
commercial product called Palunteer
10566
08:53:28,638 --> 08:53:35,040
Foundry for private sector clients. The
10567
08:53:32,000 --> 08:53:37,200
sales pitch to corporate America. Your
10568
08:53:35,040 --> 08:53:40,878
company has exactly the same problem as
10569
08:53:37,200 --> 08:53:43,520
the CIA. Too much data, too many
10570
08:53:40,878 --> 08:53:45,920
incompatible systems, not enough
10571
08:53:43,520 --> 08:53:48,558
insight. We can help you find the
10572
08:53:45,920 --> 08:53:50,718
patterns you are missing. Major
10573
08:53:48,558 --> 08:53:54,240
commercial clients and estimated
10574
08:53:50,718 --> 08:53:58,638
contract values.
10575
08:53:54,240 --> 08:54:00,878
JP Morgan Chase, over $100 million,
10576
08:53:58,638 --> 08:54:04,160
fraud detection and financial crime
10577
08:54:00,878 --> 08:54:07,120
prevention. Morgan Stanley over $50
10578
08:54:04,160 --> 08:54:11,920
million risk management and regulatory
10579
08:54:07,120 --> 08:54:14,080
compliance. Airbus over $75 million
10580
08:54:11,920 --> 08:54:16,798
supply chain optimization and
10581
08:54:14,080 --> 08:54:20,958
manufacturing analytics.
10582
08:54:16,798 --> 08:54:23,600
Merc Pharmaceuticals over $60 million
10583
08:54:20,958 --> 08:54:26,478
drug discovery analytics and clinical
10584
08:54:23,600 --> 08:54:31,040
trial data integration.
10585
08:54:26,478 --> 08:54:34,878
BP over $80 million oil field production
10586
08:54:31,040 --> 08:54:38,160
optimization and predictive maintenance.
10587
08:54:34,878 --> 08:54:40,000
Commercial revenue growth from 2015 to
10588
08:54:38,160 --> 08:54:43,280
2020.
10589
08:54:40,000 --> 08:54:46,958
In 2015, they got $600 million
10590
08:54:43,280 --> 08:54:51,440
commercial revenue. By 2016, the number
10591
08:54:46,958 --> 08:54:54,080
was around $800 billion. In 2017, they
10592
08:54:51,440 --> 08:54:57,520
reached $1.1 billion in commercial
10593
08:54:54,080 --> 08:55:01,440
revenue, and it became their peak year.
10594
08:54:57,520 --> 08:55:03,680
2018 made them hit the $750 million
10595
08:55:01,440 --> 08:55:07,240
mark, a temporary decline due to
10596
08:55:03,680 --> 08:55:07,240
customer churn.
10597
08:55:07,280 --> 08:55:13,040
In 2019, revenue was around $745
10598
08:55:11,440 --> 08:55:16,958
million,
10599
08:55:13,040 --> 08:55:20,958
and by 2020, they reached $1.1 billion.
10600
08:55:16,958 --> 08:55:24,080
Again, this recovery was driven by COVID
10601
08:55:20,958 --> 08:55:26,240
analytics contracts. Palanteer had
10602
08:55:24,080 --> 08:55:29,920
created a business model with two
10603
08:55:26,240 --> 08:55:32,160
enormous lockedin customer bases, the US
10604
08:55:29,920 --> 08:55:35,638
government and the largest corporations
10605
08:55:32,160 --> 08:55:35,638
in the world.
10606
08:55:37,200 --> 08:55:42,318
But Palanteer's work, especially for
10607
08:55:39,520 --> 08:55:45,680
government agencies, attracted intense
10608
08:55:42,318 --> 08:55:48,718
controversy and moral criticism.
10609
08:55:45,680 --> 08:55:52,798
In 2019, they secured a contract with
10610
08:55:48,718 --> 08:55:55,280
ICE for $49 million. The purpose of the
10611
08:55:52,798 --> 08:55:57,760
contract was enforcement and removal
10612
08:55:55,280 --> 08:56:00,638
operations systems,
10613
08:55:57,760 --> 08:56:03,120
meaning a software used to identify,
10614
08:56:00,638 --> 08:56:05,840
track, and process undocumented
10615
08:56:03,120 --> 08:56:08,080
immigrants for deportation.
10616
08:56:05,840 --> 08:56:10,798
This project came with a controversy
10617
08:56:08,080 --> 08:56:12,878
attached. The software was used during
10618
08:56:10,798 --> 08:56:15,680
the family separation policy at the
10619
08:56:12,878 --> 08:56:19,040
southern border. Children separated from
10620
08:56:15,680 --> 08:56:21,200
their parents. Families torn apart.
10621
08:56:19,040 --> 08:56:23,920
Palanteer software helped make it
10622
08:56:21,200 --> 08:56:26,478
operationally possible. Hundreds of
10623
08:56:23,920 --> 08:56:28,878
Palunteer employees signed an internal
10624
08:56:26,478 --> 08:56:32,000
letter demanding the company cancel the
10625
08:56:28,878 --> 08:56:34,318
ICE contract.
10626
08:56:32,000 --> 08:56:37,360
They argued the company was enabling
10627
08:56:34,318 --> 08:56:41,120
human rights abuses. The and Karp's
10628
08:56:37,360 --> 08:56:43,120
response, absolute refusal. The contract
10629
08:56:41,120 --> 08:56:45,680
would continue.
10630
08:56:43,120 --> 08:56:48,000
Alex Kart gave a public statement saying
10631
08:56:45,680 --> 08:56:51,520
that they had chosen sides and that the
10632
08:56:48,000 --> 08:56:54,000
company supported American institutions.
10633
08:56:51,520 --> 08:56:56,318
But this was not the only controversy
10634
08:56:54,000 --> 08:56:59,680
Palanteer has faced.
10635
08:56:56,318 --> 08:57:02,878
Palanteer worked alongside the NYPD with
10636
08:56:59,680 --> 08:57:07,840
a contract estimated between 50 and $100
10637
08:57:02,878 --> 08:57:10,160
billion. The mission predictive policy.
10638
08:57:07,840 --> 08:57:12,718
They were asked to use historical crime
10639
08:57:10,160 --> 08:57:15,600
data to predict where future crimes will
10640
08:57:12,718 --> 08:57:18,398
occur and who is likely to commit them.
10641
08:57:15,600 --> 08:57:21,200
The controversy civil rights groups
10642
08:57:18,398 --> 08:57:24,080
argued that system perpetuated racial
10643
08:57:21,200 --> 08:57:27,040
bias. Minority neighborhoods were
10644
08:57:24,080 --> 08:57:29,280
flagged as high risk. Innocent people
10645
08:57:27,040 --> 08:57:32,558
were put under surveillance based on
10646
08:57:29,280 --> 08:57:36,160
algorithmic predictions.
10647
08:57:32,558 --> 08:57:38,638
Joe Lndale, Palanteer co-founder, had
10648
08:57:36,160 --> 08:57:40,240
made a personal investment in Cambridge
10649
08:57:38,638 --> 08:57:42,558
Analytica.
10650
08:57:40,240 --> 08:57:45,040
Multiple Palanteer employees on their
10651
08:57:42,558 --> 08:57:49,558
own time helped Cambridge Analytica
10652
08:57:45,040 --> 08:57:49,558
build data integration models.
10653
08:57:49,680 --> 08:57:54,718
Both companies use similar approaches to
10654
08:57:52,398 --> 08:57:56,240
data harvesting and psychological
10655
08:57:54,718 --> 08:57:58,080
profiling.
10656
08:57:56,240 --> 08:58:00,958
When the connection was exposed by
10657
08:57:58,080 --> 08:58:04,000
journalists, Palanteer claimed there was
10658
08:58:00,958 --> 08:58:07,280
no institutional relationship, just
10659
08:58:04,000 --> 08:58:09,600
coincidental personal connections.
10660
08:58:07,280 --> 08:58:13,680
But the damage to Palanteer's reputation
10661
08:58:09,600 --> 08:58:16,080
was done. The had built the panoptagon,
10662
08:58:13,680 --> 08:58:18,558
the allseeing eye of corporate and
10663
08:58:16,080 --> 08:58:22,000
government surveillance.
10664
08:58:18,558 --> 08:58:25,200
September the 30th, 2020.
10665
08:58:22,000 --> 08:58:27,120
After 17 years as a private company, one
10666
08:58:25,200 --> 08:58:29,840
of the longest periods of private
10667
08:58:27,120 --> 08:58:32,798
operation for any major tech company,
10668
08:58:29,840 --> 08:58:35,840
Palanteer finally goes public through a
10669
08:58:32,798 --> 08:58:38,718
direct listing.
10670
08:58:35,840 --> 08:58:41,600
They went public at $10 per share and
10671
08:58:38,718 --> 08:58:45,280
their market capitalization at market
10672
08:58:41,600 --> 08:58:48,558
open was $16 billion.
10673
08:58:45,280 --> 08:58:50,398
By the first day, shares were down 5%.
10674
08:58:48,558 --> 08:58:51,920
The stock was initially a
10675
08:58:50,398 --> 08:58:54,080
disappointment.
10676
08:58:51,920 --> 08:58:56,080
Investors were skeptical of the business
10677
08:58:54,080 --> 08:58:58,718
model, worried about customer
10678
08:58:56,080 --> 08:59:00,798
concentration, concerned about the
10679
08:58:58,718 --> 08:59:03,920
controversy.
10680
08:59:00,798 --> 08:59:06,958
But then COVID 19 created massive new
10681
08:59:03,920 --> 08:59:10,878
demand for Palanteer's capabilities.
10682
08:59:06,958 --> 08:59:13,280
2020 to 2021, Palanteer wins enormous
10683
08:59:10,878 --> 08:59:16,398
pandemic related government contracts
10684
08:59:13,280 --> 08:59:18,558
with governments across the world. The
10685
08:59:16,398 --> 08:59:21,840
pandemic proved that governments needed
10686
08:59:18,558 --> 08:59:24,878
Palanteer and the market responded.
10687
08:59:21,840 --> 08:59:30,798
By late 2021, Palanteer stock had
10688
08:59:24,878 --> 08:59:33,200
exploded, $29 per share at 190% gain
10689
08:59:30,798 --> 08:59:34,958
from the direct listing price. Market
10690
08:59:33,200 --> 08:59:38,520
capitalization
10691
08:59:34,958 --> 08:59:38,520
$60 billion.
10692
08:59:39,680 --> 08:59:46,638
Peter Theal stake approximately 7%
10693
08:59:43,280 --> 08:59:49,440
ownership worth $4.2 billion at the
10694
08:59:46,638 --> 08:59:51,840
peak. 2022
10695
08:59:49,440 --> 08:59:55,280
the tech crash hits Palanteer brutally
10696
08:59:51,840 --> 08:59:59,360
hard. Stock prices crash to $6 per
10697
08:59:55,280 --> 09:00:03,040
share, down 8% from the peak. Market cap
10698
08:59:59,360 --> 09:00:05,120
collapses to $13 billion.
10699
09:00:03,040 --> 09:00:10,958
The paper wealth from Palanteer
10700
09:00:05,120 --> 09:00:14,318
evaporates. Billions gone. 2023 to 2024,
10701
09:00:10,958 --> 09:00:16,718
the AI boom creates new opportunity.
10702
09:00:14,318 --> 09:00:18,160
Palanteer markets itself as the AI
10703
09:00:16,718 --> 09:00:19,760
platform for governments and
10704
09:00:18,160 --> 09:00:22,638
enterprises.
10705
09:00:19,760 --> 09:00:27,280
And they get major new contract wins.
10706
09:00:22,638 --> 09:00:29,440
The US Army invested $463 million for AI
10707
09:00:27,280 --> 09:00:32,398
powered battlefield analytics and
10708
09:00:29,440 --> 09:00:34,878
decision support systems.
10709
09:00:32,398 --> 09:00:39,600
Palanteer stock recovered
10710
09:00:34,878 --> 09:00:42,240
25 to 30 per share by 2024.
10711
09:00:39,600 --> 09:00:45,200
As of 2024, Peter Theel's current
10712
09:00:42,240 --> 09:00:47,680
Palanteer holdings are approximately 7%
10713
09:00:45,200 --> 09:00:51,760
of all shares with a current value
10714
09:00:47,680 --> 09:00:56,360
ranging from 3.8 to $4.5 billion
10715
09:00:51,760 --> 09:00:56,360
depending on daily stock price.
10716
09:00:57,920 --> 09:01:04,558
This makes Palunteer Field's single
10717
09:01:01,120 --> 09:01:07,840
largest source of personal wealth. In
10718
09:01:04,558 --> 09:01:09,920
2024, Palanteer's financial performance
10719
09:01:07,840 --> 09:01:12,718
was divided between government and
10720
09:01:09,920 --> 09:01:17,520
commercial revenue. The company's net
10721
09:01:12,718 --> 09:01:19,360
income was $2.5 billion annually. And as
10722
09:01:17,520 --> 09:01:21,280
big as the number is, this might
10723
09:01:19,360 --> 09:01:23,760
represent a future problem for the
10724
09:01:21,280 --> 09:01:25,920
company. If government budget cuts
10725
09:01:23,760 --> 09:01:27,440
happen, Palanteer is extremely
10726
09:01:25,920 --> 09:01:29,680
vulnerable.
10727
09:01:27,440 --> 09:01:32,798
Their entire business model depends on
10728
09:01:29,680 --> 09:01:34,958
continued government spending.
10729
09:01:32,798 --> 09:01:36,478
Here is Peter Theel's fundamental
10730
09:01:34,958 --> 09:01:38,478
contradiction.
10731
09:01:36,478 --> 09:01:40,398
The paradox at the heart of everything
10732
09:01:38,478 --> 09:01:42,638
he has built. He claims to be a
10733
09:01:40,398 --> 09:01:45,920
libertarian who values individual
10734
09:01:42,638 --> 09:01:47,600
freedom above all else. A man who
10735
09:01:45,920 --> 09:01:50,000
believes government power should be
10736
09:01:47,600 --> 09:01:53,200
minimal. A man who wrote that freedom
10737
09:01:50,000 --> 09:01:55,760
and democracy are incompatible.
10738
09:01:53,200 --> 09:01:58,398
Yet he built the most powerful private
10739
09:01:55,760 --> 09:02:01,200
surveillance technology company in human
10740
09:01:58,398 --> 09:02:02,958
history. A company that gives
10741
09:02:01,200 --> 09:02:06,398
governments and corporations
10742
09:02:02,958 --> 09:02:09,680
unprecedented ability to monitor, track,
10743
09:02:06,398 --> 09:02:12,080
predict, and control human behavior.
10744
09:02:09,680 --> 09:02:15,040
Palanteer's technical capabilities
10745
09:02:12,080 --> 09:02:17,440
include realtime tracking of individuals
10746
09:02:15,040 --> 09:02:20,440
across multiple data sources and
10747
09:02:17,440 --> 09:02:20,440
databases.
10748
09:02:21,040 --> 09:02:25,680
Predictive behavioral modeling that
10749
09:02:23,680 --> 09:02:28,958
forecasts what people will do before
10750
09:02:25,680 --> 09:02:31,360
they do it. Network analysis that maps
10751
09:02:28,958 --> 09:02:34,798
every person you have ever contacted
10752
09:02:31,360 --> 09:02:37,520
through any medium. Complete integration
10753
09:02:34,798 --> 09:02:41,040
of financial records. communication
10754
09:02:37,520 --> 09:02:44,318
metadata, location history, and social
10755
09:02:41,040 --> 09:02:46,240
relationship data into a single unified
10756
09:02:44,318 --> 09:02:48,798
profile.
10757
09:02:46,240 --> 09:02:51,120
Field's defense of this contradiction
10758
09:02:48,798 --> 09:02:55,360
was explaining that the alternative to
10759
09:02:51,120 --> 09:02:57,920
Palanteer is not no surveillance.
10760
09:02:55,360 --> 09:03:00,160
The alternative is worse surveillance
10761
09:02:57,920 --> 09:03:03,120
performed by incompetent government
10762
09:03:00,160 --> 09:03:07,160
bureaucrats using decades old technology
10763
09:03:03,120 --> 09:03:07,160
that does not work properly.
10764
09:03:08,718 --> 09:03:15,280
The critics's response was obvious. They
10765
09:03:11,680 --> 09:03:19,440
told Theo he had built the panopticon,
10766
09:03:15,280 --> 09:03:21,520
the architecture of total surveillance.
10767
09:03:19,440 --> 09:03:23,760
A system allowing governments around the
10768
09:03:21,520 --> 09:03:26,718
world to use their citizens information
10769
09:03:23,760 --> 09:03:29,200
to control them, not a system to protect
10770
09:03:26,718 --> 09:03:31,520
them, said the critics.
10771
09:03:29,200 --> 09:03:34,398
Palanteer now operates in dozens of
10772
09:03:31,520 --> 09:03:37,280
countries worldwide. the United States,
10773
09:03:34,398 --> 09:03:40,160
the United Kingdom, Germany, France,
10774
09:03:37,280 --> 09:03:42,318
Australia, and even Japan.
10775
09:03:40,160 --> 09:03:45,360
The company has some controversial
10776
09:03:42,318 --> 09:03:48,318
international clients, some confirmed,
10777
09:03:45,360 --> 09:03:51,840
some alleged, but the total estimated
10778
09:03:48,318 --> 09:03:56,318
value of all global contracts lifetime,
10779
09:03:51,840 --> 09:03:59,760
over $10 billion in contract value.
10780
09:03:56,318 --> 09:04:03,360
Palanteer is Peter Theo's most important
10781
09:03:59,760 --> 09:04:05,840
company. Not because of its valuation,
10782
09:04:03,360 --> 09:04:08,000
though that is substantial. Not because
10783
09:04:05,840 --> 09:04:11,440
of its revenue, though that is
10784
09:04:08,000 --> 09:04:13,760
significant. Palanteer is important
10785
09:04:11,440 --> 09:04:16,718
because it reveals the truth about
10786
09:04:13,760 --> 09:04:19,360
Theo's worldview. It is the bridge
10787
09:04:16,718 --> 09:04:23,040
between his libertarian philosophy and
10788
09:04:19,360 --> 09:04:26,000
his authoritarian reality. He claims to
10789
09:04:23,040 --> 09:04:28,718
want freedom from government control.
10790
09:04:26,000 --> 09:04:30,878
But Palanteer gives governments
10791
09:04:28,718 --> 09:04:33,520
unprecedented control over their
10792
09:04:30,878 --> 09:04:36,558
citizens. The resolution of this
10793
09:04:33,520 --> 09:04:39,920
apparent contradiction, Peter Theel
10794
09:04:36,558 --> 09:04:44,000
believes in freedom for the elite and
10795
09:04:39,920 --> 09:04:46,240
surveillance for everyone else.
10796
09:04:44,000 --> 09:04:49,520
In his vision of the world, there are
10797
09:04:46,240 --> 09:04:51,680
rulers and there are the ruled. There
10798
09:04:49,520 --> 09:04:54,398
are the people who make the decisions
10799
09:04:51,680 --> 09:04:56,958
and the people who are managed.
10800
09:04:54,398 --> 09:05:00,318
Palanteer is the enforcement mechanism
10801
09:04:56,958 --> 09:05:03,600
for that hierarchy. The technology that
10802
09:05:00,318 --> 09:05:05,840
ensures the rulers can see everything.
10803
09:05:03,600 --> 09:05:08,878
The system that makes resistance
10804
09:05:05,840 --> 09:05:12,000
impossible because privacy no longer
10805
09:05:08,878 --> 09:05:15,280
exists. And Peter Theal sits at the
10806
09:05:12,000 --> 09:05:18,398
center of that eye, watching the world,
10807
09:05:15,280 --> 09:05:22,120
seeing everything. The architect of the
10808
09:05:18,398 --> 09:05:22,120
surveillance state.
10809
09:05:24,558 --> 09:05:30,318
In 2016, Peter Theal made an investment
10810
09:05:28,318 --> 09:05:33,680
that every other major technology
10811
09:05:30,318 --> 09:05:36,000
investor avoided.
10812
09:05:33,680 --> 09:05:38,240
While his peers in Silicon Valley were
10813
09:05:36,000 --> 09:05:42,000
contributing millions to the opposing
10814
09:05:38,240 --> 09:05:44,718
campaign, Theel wrote a check for $1.25
10815
09:05:42,000 --> 09:05:46,240
million to Donald Trump's presidential
10816
09:05:44,718 --> 09:05:49,200
campaign.
10817
09:05:46,240 --> 09:05:52,638
This was not ideology. This was
10818
09:05:49,200 --> 09:05:55,760
portfolio diversification.
10819
09:05:52,638 --> 09:06:00,398
Feel has always invested in contrarian
10820
09:05:55,760 --> 09:06:03,120
positions. When everyone zigs, he zags.
10821
09:06:00,398 --> 09:06:06,080
When consensus forms in one direction,
10822
09:06:03,120 --> 09:06:10,000
he looks for asymmetric opportunities in
10823
09:06:06,080 --> 09:06:12,558
the other. The 2006 donation gave him
10824
09:06:10,000 --> 09:06:15,840
something money usually cannot buy in
10825
09:06:12,558 --> 09:06:19,200
Silicon Valley. Direct access to
10826
09:06:15,840 --> 09:06:22,718
executive power. the return on that
10827
09:06:19,200 --> 09:06:25,360
$1.25 million investment,
10828
09:06:22,718 --> 09:06:28,800
a seat on the presidential transition
10829
09:06:25,360 --> 09:06:32,000
team, input on federal technology
10830
09:06:28,800 --> 09:06:34,800
policy, direct communication channels to
10831
09:06:32,000 --> 09:06:38,320
the White House, credibility as a
10832
09:06:34,800 --> 09:06:40,960
Washington power broker,
10833
09:06:38,320 --> 09:06:42,640
and most measurably, Palanteer's
10834
09:06:40,960 --> 09:06:46,160
government contracts increased
10835
09:06:42,640 --> 09:06:48,480
substantially during this period.
10836
09:06:46,160 --> 09:06:51,758
But feels most significant political
10837
09:06:48,480 --> 09:06:53,278
investments came in the 2022 midterm
10838
09:06:51,758 --> 09:06:57,040
elections.
10839
09:06:53,278 --> 09:07:00,558
Two candidates, both former employees,
10840
09:06:57,040 --> 09:07:02,480
both running for United States Senate.
10841
09:07:00,558 --> 09:07:05,360
The financial commitment was
10842
09:07:02,480 --> 09:07:07,758
unprecedented in scale.
10843
09:07:05,360 --> 09:07:09,918
Vance had worked at Theel's venture
10844
09:07:07,758 --> 09:07:12,960
capital firm before writing his
10845
09:07:09,918 --> 09:07:15,040
best-selling memoir. Field's total
10846
09:07:12,960 --> 09:07:18,160
financial commitment.
10847
09:07:15,040 --> 09:07:19,918
Direct campaign contribution $15
10848
09:07:18,160 --> 09:07:23,918
million.
10849
09:07:19,918 --> 09:07:27,680
Super PAC expenditures $5 million.
10850
09:07:23,918 --> 09:07:30,878
Combined investment $20 million.
10851
09:07:27,680 --> 09:07:33,278
This set a record as the largest single
10852
09:07:30,878 --> 09:07:36,800
donor contribution to an individual
10853
09:07:33,278 --> 09:07:39,918
Senate campaign in American history. The
10854
09:07:36,800 --> 09:07:43,598
outcome, Vance won by six percentage
10855
09:07:39,918 --> 09:07:46,398
points. Masters had worked directly for
10856
09:07:43,598 --> 09:07:48,398
Theel as chief operating officer at
10857
09:07:46,398 --> 09:07:50,398
Theel Capital.
10858
09:07:48,398 --> 09:07:52,718
Theel's financial commitment to his
10859
09:07:50,398 --> 09:07:56,558
campaign was a combined investment of
10860
09:07:52,718 --> 09:07:59,680
$20 million, but unlike Vance, Masters
10861
09:07:56,558 --> 09:08:03,278
lost by 5 percentage points.
10862
09:07:59,680 --> 09:08:07,200
The total 2022 midterm investment was
10863
09:08:03,278 --> 09:08:09,040
over $40 million in two Senate races.
10864
09:08:07,200 --> 09:08:11,278
Two different candidates that would have
10865
09:08:09,040 --> 09:08:14,558
allowed him to be in direct touch with
10866
09:08:11,278 --> 09:08:16,960
power at different chambers and stages.
10867
09:08:14,558 --> 09:08:19,360
For context, the average competitive
10868
09:08:16,960 --> 09:08:23,040
Senate race costs approximately $10
10869
09:08:19,360 --> 09:08:27,718
million total. Peter Theal invested four
10870
09:08:23,040 --> 09:08:27,718
times that amount on two races.
10871
09:08:28,398 --> 09:08:35,122
It's July 2024. JD Vance is selected as
10872
09:08:32,960 --> 09:08:38,000
the Republican vice presidential
10873
09:08:35,122 --> 09:08:40,640
candidate. From a pure investment
10874
09:08:38,000 --> 09:08:43,598
analysis perspective, this transforms
10875
09:08:40,640 --> 09:08:46,078
the return profile on Theo's $20 million
10876
09:08:43,598 --> 09:08:48,398
commitment. He has considered the
10877
09:08:46,078 --> 09:08:52,320
potential financial implications if this
10878
09:08:48,398 --> 09:08:54,878
ticket wins and he gets access to
10879
09:08:52,320 --> 09:08:58,238
executive branch decisionmaking for 8
10880
09:08:54,878 --> 09:09:01,680
years. influence over federal contract
10881
09:08:58,238 --> 09:09:04,640
allocation across multiple agencies.
10882
09:09:01,680 --> 09:09:08,878
Input on technology regulation affecting
10883
09:09:04,640 --> 09:09:11,122
the portfolio companies.
10884
09:09:08,878 --> 09:09:13,278
If we consider what's the estimated
10885
09:09:11,122 --> 09:09:16,640
return on investment for Palanteer's
10886
09:09:13,278 --> 09:09:18,878
government business, what we see is
10887
09:09:16,640 --> 09:09:21,680
current annual government revenue of
10888
09:09:18,878 --> 09:09:24,398
$1.5 billion.
10889
09:09:21,680 --> 09:09:27,680
potential additional contract value over
10890
09:09:24,398 --> 09:09:30,680
eight years conservatively 5 to10
10891
09:09:27,680 --> 09:09:30,680
billion
10892
09:09:30,718 --> 09:09:37,360
and other defense companies in the
10893
09:09:33,758 --> 09:09:39,040
network potential 3 to5 billion in
10894
09:09:37,360 --> 09:09:41,520
contracts
10895
09:09:39,040 --> 09:09:45,040
regulatory treatment of cryptocurrency
10896
09:09:41,520 --> 09:09:48,040
holdings value potentially in tens of
10897
09:09:45,040 --> 09:09:48,040
billions.
10898
09:09:49,758 --> 09:09:55,840
The theoretical return of those 20
10899
09:09:52,320 --> 09:09:59,200
million invested is potentially 15 to 20
10900
09:09:55,840 --> 09:10:03,200
billion captured across the portfolio.
10901
09:09:59,200 --> 09:10:06,878
That represents a potential of 750 to
10902
09:10:03,200 --> 09:10:09,200
1,000 times return. By comparison,
10903
09:10:06,878 --> 09:10:11,520
Theel's Facebook investment returned
10904
09:10:09,200 --> 09:10:14,000
2,000 times.
10905
09:10:11,520 --> 09:10:19,360
To sum it up, the complete political
10906
09:10:14,000 --> 09:10:21,680
spending of the from 2016 to 2022 is 70
10907
09:10:19,360 --> 09:10:24,640
to $80 million.
10908
09:10:21,680 --> 09:10:27,918
For context, Amazon spends 20 million
10909
09:10:24,640 --> 09:10:30,640
annually on lobbying. Meta spends 20
10910
09:10:27,918 --> 09:10:34,398
million annual on lobbying. Google
10911
09:10:30,640 --> 09:10:37,040
spends 12 million annually on lobbying.
10912
09:10:34,398 --> 09:10:40,000
Field's approach is different. Rather
10913
09:10:37,040 --> 09:10:42,160
than ongoing lobbying expenditures, he
10914
09:10:40,000 --> 09:10:44,640
makes concentrated investments in
10915
09:10:42,160 --> 09:10:50,200
individual candidates who potentially
10916
09:10:44,640 --> 09:10:50,200
provide access for years or decades.
10917
09:10:50,238 --> 09:10:55,278
It is the venture capital model applied
10918
09:10:52,640 --> 09:10:58,238
to politics. Make early stage
10919
09:10:55,278 --> 09:11:00,718
investments in promising candidates.
10920
09:10:58,238 --> 09:11:04,000
Provide sufficient capital to help them
10921
09:11:00,718 --> 09:11:06,558
win. Capture value through long-term
10922
09:11:04,000 --> 09:11:09,200
relationships and access.
10923
09:11:06,558 --> 09:11:12,000
The candidates Theel has supported now
10924
09:11:09,200 --> 09:11:14,480
serve on key committees.
10925
09:11:12,000 --> 09:11:16,078
Technology regulation, defense
10926
09:11:14,480 --> 09:11:18,960
appropriations,
10927
09:11:16,078 --> 09:11:21,758
intelligence oversight, banking and
10928
09:11:18,960 --> 09:11:24,000
financial services.
10929
09:11:21,758 --> 09:11:26,480
Precisely the committees that oversee
10930
09:11:24,000 --> 09:11:28,878
industries where the has billions
10931
09:11:26,480 --> 09:11:31,680
invested and where he can use some
10932
09:11:28,878 --> 09:11:34,320
privileged information.
10933
09:11:31,680 --> 09:11:39,438
Is political investment a good use of
10934
09:11:34,320 --> 09:11:42,558
capital? The mathematics suggest yes 70
10935
09:11:39,438 --> 09:11:46,000
to 80 million represents less than 1% of
10936
09:11:42,558 --> 09:11:48,640
the's net worth. The potential return if
10937
09:11:46,000 --> 09:11:51,438
facets translate to favorable treatment
10938
09:11:48,640 --> 09:11:55,278
for portfolio companies could be worth
10939
09:11:51,438 --> 09:11:58,000
billions. Even with a 50% success rate,
10940
09:11:55,278 --> 09:12:01,680
the expected value is positive by orders
10941
09:11:58,000 --> 09:12:04,800
of magnitude. Investment 70 to 80
10942
09:12:01,680 --> 09:12:08,000
million over 8 years. Potential value
10943
09:12:04,800 --> 09:12:12,640
captured 15 to 30 billion across
10944
09:12:08,000 --> 09:12:16,558
portfolio. Expected return 200 to 400
10945
09:12:12,640 --> 09:12:19,122
times invested capital
10946
09:12:16,558 --> 09:12:22,320
that rivals the best venture capital
10947
09:12:19,122 --> 09:12:25,598
returns in history. Peter Theel is not
10948
09:12:22,320 --> 09:12:28,598
playing politics. He is optimizing his
10949
09:12:25,598 --> 09:12:28,598
portfolio.
10950
09:12:29,918 --> 09:12:35,840
Chapter 7. The final exit.
10951
09:12:33,758 --> 09:12:38,640
Peter Theal has spent his life betting
10952
09:12:35,840 --> 09:12:41,200
on the future, building it, funding it,
10953
09:12:38,640 --> 09:12:45,122
accelerating it. But there is one
10954
09:12:41,200 --> 09:12:49,918
frontier he refuses to accept as fixed.
10955
09:12:45,122 --> 09:12:52,480
Death. To him, mortality is not destiny.
10956
09:12:49,918 --> 09:12:54,800
It is an engineering problem waiting for
10957
09:12:52,480 --> 09:12:56,960
a breakthrough. Unlike every other
10958
09:12:54,800 --> 09:13:00,160
system he has challenged, he believes
10959
09:12:56,960 --> 09:13:02,800
this one too can be redesigned.
10960
09:13:00,160 --> 09:13:05,918
While others plan for retirement, Theel
10961
09:13:02,800 --> 09:13:08,480
funds longevity labs. While governments
10962
09:13:05,918 --> 09:13:10,000
plan for decades, he thinks in
10963
09:13:08,480 --> 09:13:12,238
centuries.
10964
09:13:10,000 --> 09:13:14,800
If time is the ultimate constraint on
10965
09:13:12,238 --> 09:13:17,598
power, then extending life is the
10966
09:13:14,800 --> 09:13:20,800
ultimate leverage. At the edge of the
10967
09:13:17,598 --> 09:13:23,520
world, he built a refuge. Far from
10968
09:13:20,800 --> 09:13:28,078
political centers, far from social
10969
09:13:23,520 --> 09:13:30,398
unrest, close only to time. In Silicon
10970
09:13:28,078 --> 09:13:34,000
Valley, there is a dark joke shared
10971
09:13:30,398 --> 09:13:36,160
quietly among founders and investors.
10972
09:13:34,000 --> 09:13:38,640
How many billionaires does it take to
10973
09:13:36,160 --> 09:13:41,680
buy a country?
10974
09:13:38,640 --> 09:13:45,078
Just one, if he is smart enough to get
10975
09:13:41,680 --> 09:13:45,078
there first.
10976
09:13:45,438 --> 09:13:50,078
He invested in digital currencies that
10977
09:13:47,758 --> 09:13:52,160
governments cannot print. In
10978
09:13:50,078 --> 09:13:54,960
surveillance systems that see what
10979
09:13:52,160 --> 09:13:57,520
others cannot. In political candidates
10980
09:13:54,960 --> 09:14:00,160
who might shape the rules. In
10981
09:13:57,520 --> 09:14:03,840
technologies that might outlive biology
10982
09:14:00,160 --> 09:14:07,480
itself. Not to save the world, to
10983
09:14:03,840 --> 09:14:07,480
outlast it.
10984
09:14:09,438 --> 09:14:14,960
What began as a contingency plan for a
10985
09:14:12,078 --> 09:14:17,758
few has become an unspoken strategy
10986
09:14:14,960 --> 09:14:20,160
among the ultra wealthy.
10987
09:14:17,758 --> 09:14:22,718
When the New Zealand citizenship story
10988
09:14:20,160 --> 09:14:26,320
became public, one of Theo's closest
10989
09:14:22,718 --> 09:14:29,122
peers, Samman, put it bluntly.
10990
09:14:26,320 --> 09:14:32,078
If things go really wrong, I'm flying to
10991
09:14:29,122 --> 09:14:35,278
Peter's place.
10992
09:14:32,078 --> 09:14:38,480
Some men try to make history. Peter
10993
09:14:35,278 --> 09:14:41,278
Theel is trying to escape it.
10994
09:14:38,480 --> 09:14:46,598
And if the future breaks, he intends to
10995
09:14:41,278 --> 09:14:46,598
be standing somewhere it cannot reach.
10996
09:16:12,320 --> 09:16:17,360
Most people see this and think culture.
10997
09:16:15,360 --> 09:16:19,758
They see a charming eco-friendly
10998
09:16:17,360 --> 09:16:22,640
tradition.
10999
09:16:19,758 --> 09:16:25,040
But look closer. This isn't just people
11000
09:16:22,640 --> 09:16:27,598
liking to pedal. What you were watching
11001
09:16:25,040 --> 09:16:29,360
is a highfrequency, low friction
11002
09:16:27,598 --> 09:16:31,200
economic machine.
11003
09:16:29,360 --> 09:16:33,200
>> Ultimately, private car ownership is
11004
09:16:31,200 --> 09:16:34,800
going to become obsolete. Cities are
11005
09:16:33,200 --> 09:16:36,480
building for pedestrians. They're
11006
09:16:34,800 --> 09:16:39,918
building for cycling. They're building
11007
09:16:36,480 --> 09:16:42,640
for livability, not for cars.
11008
09:16:39,918 --> 09:16:46,520
>> The bike economy, the multi-billion
11009
09:16:42,640 --> 09:16:46,520
dollar system of Amsterdam.
11010
09:16:47,680 --> 09:16:54,558
In Amsterdam, the bicycle isn't a toy.
11011
09:16:51,122 --> 09:16:57,360
It is a critical urban infrastructure.
11012
09:16:54,558 --> 09:17:01,800
If this system failed today, the city's
11013
09:16:57,360 --> 09:17:01,800
economy would collapse tomorrow.
11014
09:17:01,918 --> 09:17:07,122
For decades, the world has viewed
11015
09:17:03,840 --> 09:17:10,320
Amsterdam through a romantic lens. But
11016
09:17:07,122 --> 09:17:12,878
cities don't run on vibes. They run on
11017
09:17:10,320 --> 09:17:14,800
systems. And when a system moves
11018
09:17:12,878 --> 09:17:17,758
hundreds of thousands of people every
11019
09:17:14,800 --> 09:17:20,960
single day, it stops being a choice and
11020
09:17:17,758 --> 09:17:23,758
starts demanding three things. space,
11021
09:17:20,960 --> 09:17:26,078
rules, and capital.
11022
09:17:23,758 --> 09:17:28,238
Research shows that the cycling system
11023
09:17:26,078 --> 09:17:31,840
contributes benefits equivalent to
11024
09:17:28,238 --> 09:17:34,800
roughly 3% of the Netherlands GDP.
11025
09:17:31,840 --> 09:17:37,598
This isn't just green energy. It's hard
11026
09:17:34,800 --> 09:17:40,160
cash saved in public health, reduced
11027
09:17:37,598 --> 09:17:43,040
absenteeism at work, and most
11028
09:17:40,160 --> 09:17:45,680
importantly, unlocked productivity.
11029
09:17:43,040 --> 09:17:48,000
Every person on a bike is a person who
11030
09:17:45,680 --> 09:17:50,960
isn't taking up 12 square meters of
11031
09:17:48,000 --> 09:17:53,918
public space with a car. That freed up
11032
09:17:50,960 --> 09:17:57,360
space allows for high value real estate,
11033
09:17:53,918 --> 09:18:02,438
commerce, and tourism. In economics, we
11034
09:17:57,360 --> 09:18:02,438
call this optimization of land use.
11035
09:18:03,918 --> 09:18:10,800
But success created a crisis. By the
11036
09:18:07,278 --> 09:18:12,800
2010s, Amsterdam had a clutter problem.
11037
09:18:10,800 --> 09:18:16,238
Thousands of bikes were choking the
11038
09:18:12,800 --> 09:18:18,320
streets. The solution, one of the most
11039
09:18:16,238 --> 09:18:21,438
expensive and daring engineering
11040
09:18:18,320 --> 09:18:25,278
projects in the city. They built a
11041
09:18:21,438 --> 09:18:26,878
cathedral for 7,000 bicycles under the
11042
09:18:25,278 --> 09:18:29,438
water.
11043
09:18:26,878 --> 09:18:31,520
It cost millions. From a traditional
11044
09:18:29,438 --> 09:18:34,960
linear perspective, spending that much
11045
09:18:31,520 --> 09:18:37,438
on free parking seems insane. But from a
11046
09:18:34,960 --> 09:18:39,840
circular economy perspective, a model
11047
09:18:37,438 --> 09:18:43,200
where Amsterdam is a global leader with
11048
09:18:39,840 --> 09:18:46,000
30.6% circularity rate, it was a
11049
09:18:43,200 --> 09:18:48,078
mandatory investment. As we see in the
11050
09:18:46,000 --> 09:18:50,718
latest urban governance reports,
11051
09:18:48,078 --> 09:18:53,360
planning isn't an option here. It's the
11052
09:18:50,718 --> 09:18:55,918
only way to exist.
11053
09:18:53,360 --> 09:18:59,040
In this documentary, we are going beyond
11054
09:18:55,918 --> 09:19:02,160
the postcard. We will travel back to
11055
09:18:59,040 --> 09:19:05,360
1965 to see why the first sharing
11056
09:19:02,160 --> 09:19:08,000
economy experiment failed. We will use
11057
09:19:05,360 --> 09:19:11,040
scientific GPS data to track the shadow
11058
09:19:08,000 --> 09:19:14,560
economy of the 80,000 bikes stolen every
11059
09:19:11,040 --> 09:19:16,560
year. And we will explore how Amsterdam
11060
09:19:14,560 --> 09:19:20,160
is using the bicycle to become the
11061
09:19:16,560 --> 09:19:23,596
world's first 100% circular city by
11062
09:19:20,160 --> 09:19:25,680
2050. This is the story of how a humble
11063
09:19:23,596 --> 09:19:28,480
machine with two wheels became the
11064
09:19:25,680 --> 09:19:31,480
backbone of a multi-billion dollar urban
11065
09:19:28,480 --> 09:19:31,480
miracle.
11066
09:19:34,240 --> 09:19:40,320
To understand why Amsterdam spends €85
11067
09:19:37,200 --> 09:19:42,800
million on underwater parking today, we
11068
09:19:40,320 --> 09:19:46,080
have to go back to a time when the city
11069
09:19:42,800 --> 09:19:49,080
almost lost its soul to the car, the
11070
09:19:46,080 --> 09:19:49,080
1960s.
11071
09:19:53,276 --> 09:19:59,520
As post-war prosperity grew, Amsterdam
11072
09:19:56,240 --> 09:20:01,680
was being choked by motor vehicles.
11073
09:19:59,520 --> 09:20:03,756
In response, a counterculture group
11074
09:20:01,680 --> 09:20:06,320
called the Provos launched what would
11075
09:20:03,756 --> 09:20:09,840
become the first bike sharing program in
11076
09:20:06,320 --> 09:20:12,160
history, the Vita Fieten Plan, or the
11077
09:20:09,840 --> 09:20:14,800
White Bike Plan.
11078
09:20:12,160 --> 09:20:18,880
Their proposal was radical and purely
11079
09:20:14,800 --> 09:20:21,120
idealistic. Paint 20,000 bicycles white.
11080
09:20:18,880 --> 09:20:24,480
Leave them unlocked across the city and
11081
09:20:21,120 --> 09:20:27,360
let anyone use them for free. No keys,
11082
09:20:24,480 --> 09:20:30,560
no coins, no owners. They viewed
11083
09:20:27,360 --> 09:20:33,596
mobility as a public good, as essential
11084
09:20:30,560 --> 09:20:36,560
and free as the air we breathe. On
11085
09:20:33,596 --> 09:20:40,800
paper, it was a circular economy. Avant
11086
09:20:36,560 --> 09:20:44,160
Letra. In practice, it was a disaster.
11087
09:20:40,800 --> 09:20:46,400
Within days, the system collapsed. Why?
11088
09:20:44,160 --> 09:20:49,436
Because the provos ignored a fundamental
11089
09:20:46,400 --> 09:20:52,680
principle of economics, the tragedy of
11090
09:20:49,436 --> 09:20:52,680
the commons.
11091
09:21:28,000 --> 09:21:32,880
Without ownership or registration,
11092
09:21:30,160 --> 09:21:35,916
public property quickly became nobody's
11093
09:21:32,880 --> 09:21:38,320
property. In an unregulated system with
11094
09:21:35,916 --> 09:21:40,960
zero entry cost, the incentive to
11095
09:21:38,320 --> 09:21:43,756
maintain the asset disappears. Without
11096
09:21:40,960 --> 09:21:46,640
locks or registration, public property
11097
09:21:43,756 --> 09:21:48,560
quickly became nobody's property. The
11098
09:21:46,640 --> 09:21:51,360
police confiscated the bikes because
11099
09:21:48,560 --> 09:21:54,080
they invited theft and the citizens
11100
09:21:51,360 --> 09:21:56,080
driven by individual rationalism either
11101
09:21:54,080 --> 09:21:58,720
took them home or threw them into the
11102
09:21:56,080 --> 09:22:01,520
canals.
11103
09:21:58,720 --> 09:22:03,596
The lesson was harsh. You cannot have a
11104
09:22:01,520 --> 09:22:05,916
massive urban transit system based
11105
09:22:03,596 --> 09:22:09,560
solely on romanticism.
11106
09:22:05,916 --> 09:22:09,560
You need governance.
11107
09:22:11,276 --> 09:22:17,276
However, the white bikes planted a seed.
11108
09:22:14,320 --> 09:22:19,040
It shifted the economic debate. The city
11109
09:22:17,276 --> 09:22:21,276
realized that if they didn't want to
11110
09:22:19,040 --> 09:22:23,916
spend billions on highways like Los
11111
09:22:21,276 --> 09:22:26,640
Angeles or London, they had to invest in
11112
09:22:23,916 --> 09:22:29,040
a different kind of capital. Transition
11113
09:22:26,640 --> 09:22:32,000
requires not just technology, but a
11114
09:22:29,040 --> 09:22:34,080
change in urban metabolism.
11115
09:22:32,000 --> 09:22:36,400
The failure of the white bikes taught
11116
09:22:34,080 --> 09:22:38,560
Amsterdam that the bicycle had to be
11117
09:22:36,400 --> 09:22:41,680
integrated into the formal economy of
11118
09:22:38,560 --> 09:22:45,360
the city, not as a rebel symbol, but as
11119
09:22:41,680 --> 09:22:47,360
a regulated, taxed, and planned asset.
11120
09:22:45,360 --> 09:22:50,160
Today, the free spirit of the white
11121
09:22:47,360 --> 09:22:53,360
bikes only survives in one place, the
11122
09:22:50,160 --> 09:22:55,520
Hoga Valu National Park. But in the
11123
09:22:53,360 --> 09:22:58,240
city, the white bike has been replaced
11124
09:22:55,520 --> 09:23:00,800
by a sophisticated capital incentive
11125
09:22:58,240 --> 09:23:03,040
model. We no longer trust in the
11126
09:23:00,800 --> 09:23:06,080
goodness of the user. We trust in
11127
09:23:03,040 --> 09:23:08,480
incentives. We move the tragedy of the
11128
09:23:06,080 --> 09:23:11,680
commons to a system of managed common
11129
09:23:08,480 --> 09:23:14,880
pool resources. In economics, success
11130
09:23:11,680 --> 09:23:17,680
can be as disruptive as failure. By the
11131
09:23:14,880 --> 09:23:20,320
late 2010s, Amsterdam was a victim of
11132
09:23:17,680 --> 09:23:22,800
its own efficiency. With nearly 1
11133
09:23:20,320 --> 09:23:25,520
million bicycles in the city, the urban
11134
09:23:22,800 --> 09:23:28,480
surface had reached a breaking point.
11135
09:23:25,520 --> 09:23:31,680
Every bridge, railing, and sidewalk was
11136
09:23:28,480 --> 09:23:34,240
occupied by idle metal.
11137
09:23:31,680 --> 09:23:37,276
This wasn't just an aesthetic grievance.
11138
09:23:34,240 --> 09:23:39,680
It was an economic bottleneck. Thousands
11139
09:23:37,276 --> 09:23:42,720
of parked bikes were clogging the city's
11140
09:23:39,680 --> 09:23:45,680
arteries, slowing down 200,000 daily
11141
09:23:42,720 --> 09:23:47,840
commuters at Central Station. In one of
11142
09:23:45,680 --> 09:23:50,400
the world's most expensive real estate
11143
09:23:47,840 --> 09:23:52,800
markets, free surface parking is a
11144
09:23:50,400 --> 09:23:55,360
luxury that a functional city cannot
11145
09:23:52,800 --> 09:23:58,720
afford. The opportunity cost of that
11146
09:23:55,360 --> 09:24:02,000
space was becoming too high. To solve
11147
09:23:58,720 --> 09:24:05,040
this, Amsterdam launched the entre, a
11148
09:24:02,000 --> 09:24:07,756
massive urban reconfiguration project.
11149
09:24:05,040 --> 09:24:10,160
The crown jewel, the open haven
11150
09:24:07,756 --> 09:24:13,040
underwater parking.
11151
09:24:10,160 --> 09:24:16,320
Consider that figure. Spending €60
11152
09:24:13,040 --> 09:24:17,840
million just to store 7,000 bicycles
11153
09:24:16,320 --> 09:24:20,240
underwater.
11154
09:24:17,840 --> 09:24:23,360
To a traditional accountant, this looks
11155
09:24:20,240 --> 09:24:26,080
like a massive sunk cost. But to an
11156
09:24:23,360 --> 09:24:29,756
urban economist, it's a master stroke of
11157
09:24:26,080 --> 09:24:32,160
asset management. By moving 7,000 bikes
11158
09:24:29,756 --> 09:24:34,960
beneath the water, the city performed
11159
09:24:32,160 --> 09:24:36,880
open heart surgery on its central hub.
11160
09:24:34,960 --> 09:24:40,240
They reclaimed the surface, restoring
11161
09:24:36,880 --> 09:24:42,560
the landscape to its 1900's aesthetic.
11162
09:24:40,240 --> 09:24:45,840
This isn't just about beauty. It's about
11163
09:24:42,560 --> 09:24:48,080
maximizing pedestrian flow. A station
11164
09:24:45,840 --> 09:24:50,640
that breathes and flows is a station
11165
09:24:48,080 --> 09:24:53,756
that generates higher economic value for
11166
09:24:50,640 --> 09:24:56,800
the surrounding businesses. However, an
11167
09:24:53,756 --> 09:24:58,640
85 million euro asset must be managed
11168
09:24:56,800 --> 09:25:01,520
like a high performance logistics
11169
09:24:58,640 --> 09:25:04,320
center. You cannot allow zombie bikes to
11170
09:25:01,520 --> 09:25:06,320
occupy these slots indefinitely.
11171
09:25:04,320 --> 09:25:09,916
This is where the incentive structure
11172
09:25:06,320 --> 09:25:13,276
comes into play. The primary goal isn't
11173
09:25:09,916 --> 09:25:15,840
profit, it's turnover. By offering the
11174
09:25:13,276 --> 09:25:19,200
first 24 hours for free, the city
11175
09:25:15,840 --> 09:25:21,680
subsidizes the daily workforce. But by
11176
09:25:19,200 --> 09:25:23,756
charging a daily fee thereafter, they
11177
09:25:21,680 --> 09:25:26,640
penalize long-term storage and
11178
09:25:23,756 --> 09:25:29,520
abandonment. Using advanced optical
11179
09:25:26,640 --> 09:25:32,720
sensors, the city monitors idle infantry
11180
09:25:29,520 --> 09:25:35,360
in real time, ensuring that these 7,000
11181
09:25:32,720 --> 09:25:39,560
slots remain a liquid asset for those
11182
09:25:35,360 --> 09:25:39,560
who keep the economy moving.
11183
09:25:39,596 --> 09:25:44,840
Finally, we must consider the cost of
11184
09:25:41,840 --> 09:25:44,840
friction.
11185
09:25:48,720 --> 09:25:51,720
for
11186
09:26:14,320 --> 09:26:18,360
the last person. The last
11187
09:26:20,240 --> 09:26:25,040
In transport economics, every second
11188
09:26:22,480 --> 09:26:27,360
lost in a transfer is a loss in human
11189
09:26:25,040 --> 09:26:29,436
capital and productivity.
11190
09:26:27,360 --> 09:26:31,360
This underwater facility connects
11191
09:26:29,436 --> 09:26:34,560
directly to the metro and train
11192
09:26:31,360 --> 09:26:36,800
platforms. A commuter can transition
11193
09:26:34,560 --> 09:26:39,276
from their bicycle to their train seat
11194
09:26:36,800 --> 09:26:42,000
in less than 2 minutes, shielded from
11195
09:26:39,276 --> 09:26:44,080
the elements. This level of intermodel
11196
09:26:42,000 --> 09:26:46,560
synergy is exactly what makes
11197
09:26:44,080 --> 09:26:50,720
Amsterdam's circular economy, currently
11198
09:26:46,560 --> 09:26:53,120
at a record 30.6% circularity rate, a
11199
09:26:50,720 --> 09:26:56,520
functional reality rather than just a
11200
09:26:53,120 --> 09:26:56,520
policy goal.
11201
09:27:19,360 --> 09:27:23,916
But this transition to a highly
11202
09:27:21,120 --> 09:27:26,160
regulated system created its own set of
11203
09:27:23,916 --> 09:27:29,040
problems. Because when you turn a
11204
09:27:26,160 --> 09:27:31,520
bicycle into a valuable economic asset,
11205
09:27:29,040 --> 09:27:34,960
you create something else. A black
11206
09:27:31,520 --> 09:27:37,916
market. In Amsterdam, data doesn't tell
11207
09:27:34,960 --> 09:27:40,640
the whole story. While police record
11208
09:27:37,916 --> 09:27:43,520
11,000 thefts a year, the reality is
11209
09:27:40,640 --> 09:27:46,480
closer to 80,000.
11210
09:27:43,520 --> 09:27:49,040
Most citizens don't report it. Cost of
11211
09:27:46,480 --> 09:27:51,276
time is higher than the bike's value.
11212
09:27:49,040 --> 09:27:53,520
This creates a massive shadow market
11213
09:27:51,276 --> 09:27:56,720
operating entirely outside the official
11214
09:27:53,520 --> 09:27:59,756
GDP. Forget the myth of international
11215
09:27:56,720 --> 09:28:03,520
bike smuggling rings.
11216
09:27:59,756 --> 09:28:05,680
A 2023 study tracking 100 bikes proved
11217
09:28:03,520 --> 09:28:08,800
that stolen assets rarely leave the
11218
09:28:05,680 --> 09:28:11,436
city. Instead, they feed a shadow
11219
09:28:08,800 --> 09:28:13,596
circular economy. Your stolen bike is
11220
09:28:11,436 --> 09:28:16,080
sold to a street dealer and then bought
11221
09:28:13,596 --> 09:28:20,880
by your neighbor. It's a localized,
11222
09:28:16,080 --> 09:28:23,040
untaxed, and illegal closed loop.
11223
09:28:20,880 --> 09:28:25,596
High theft risk creates a market
11224
09:28:23,040 --> 09:28:28,000
distortion. If you expect your bike to
11225
09:28:25,596 --> 09:28:31,840
be stolen within months, you don't buy
11226
09:28:28,000 --> 09:28:34,160
quality, you buy junk. This beta bike
11227
09:28:31,840 --> 09:28:36,800
equilibrium keeps the city's transport
11228
09:28:34,160 --> 09:28:38,800
fleet low quality and forces owners to
11229
09:28:36,800 --> 09:28:40,800
spend more on locks than the bikes
11230
09:28:38,800 --> 09:28:43,520
themselves.
11231
09:28:40,800 --> 09:28:45,916
These aren't victimless crimes. They are
11232
09:28:43,520 --> 09:28:49,840
negative externalities that drain city
11233
09:28:45,916 --> 09:28:52,800
resources. Amsterdam's answer, the Fiat
11234
09:28:49,840 --> 09:28:55,200
depot. Since the city couldn't stop the
11235
09:28:52,800 --> 09:28:58,320
theft, it decided to manage the orphaned
11236
09:28:55,200 --> 09:29:00,880
assets. Because in a circular city, even
11237
09:28:58,320 --> 09:29:02,560
a stolen bike is a resource that must be
11238
09:29:00,880 --> 09:29:05,560
managed to maintain the urban
11239
09:29:02,560 --> 09:29:05,560
metabolism.
11240
09:29:05,916 --> 09:29:10,240
In a city with more bicycles than
11241
09:29:08,080 --> 09:29:11,916
people, orphaned assets are an
11242
09:29:10,240 --> 09:29:13,840
inevitability.
11243
09:29:11,916 --> 09:29:16,880
Every year, thousands of bikes are
11244
09:29:13,840 --> 09:29:19,520
simply left behind. In economic terms,
11245
09:29:16,880 --> 09:29:22,240
this is dead capital. They occupy
11246
09:29:19,520 --> 09:29:24,160
valuable public space, provide zero
11247
09:29:22,240 --> 09:29:25,756
utility, and degrade the urban
11248
09:29:24,160 --> 09:29:27,596
landscape.
11249
09:29:25,756 --> 09:29:30,080
According to official Amsterdam
11250
09:29:27,596 --> 09:29:32,560
regulations, the city must intervene
11251
09:29:30,080 --> 09:29:34,720
when private property interferes with
11252
09:29:32,560 --> 09:29:37,276
public efficiency.
11253
09:29:34,720 --> 09:29:40,240
Whether is an improperly parked bike
11254
09:29:37,276 --> 09:29:42,320
blocking an emergency exit or a wreck
11255
09:29:40,240 --> 09:29:44,560
that is no longer functional, the
11256
09:29:42,320 --> 09:29:48,400
municipality acts as the ultimate
11257
09:29:44,560 --> 09:29:51,200
enforcer of spatial order.
11258
09:29:48,400 --> 09:29:54,800
All seized bicycles are transported to a
11259
09:29:51,200 --> 09:29:57,040
central facility, the Fiat's depot. This
11260
09:29:54,800 --> 09:30:00,160
is a logistical powerhouse that manages
11261
09:29:57,040 --> 09:30:03,040
the city's lost capital. This isn't just
11262
09:30:00,160 --> 09:30:06,640
a pound. It's a sorting facility for the
11263
09:30:03,040 --> 09:30:08,720
city's metal metabolism. The retrieval
11264
09:30:06,640 --> 09:30:12,800
owners have around 6 weeks to claim
11265
09:30:08,720 --> 09:30:14,800
their bike for a fee, approximately €25.
11266
09:30:12,800 --> 09:30:17,120
This fee doesn't cover the full
11267
09:30:14,800 --> 09:30:20,400
operational cost, but it serves as a
11268
09:30:17,120 --> 09:30:22,800
user pays tax to discourage abandonment.
11269
09:30:20,400 --> 09:30:25,200
If your bicycle was removed from a city
11270
09:30:22,800 --> 09:30:27,276
parking facility, you will also pay
11271
09:30:25,200 --> 09:30:31,756
€33.75
11272
09:30:27,276 --> 09:30:35,040
parking cost. The sorting only about 25%
11273
09:30:31,756 --> 09:30:37,840
of bikes are ever reclaimed. The rest
11274
09:30:35,040 --> 09:30:40,000
they are classified as waste or asset.
11275
09:30:37,840 --> 09:30:44,640
Here is where the circular economy
11276
09:30:40,000 --> 09:30:47,436
strategy 2020 to 2025 becomes tangible.
11277
09:30:44,640 --> 09:30:52,400
Amsterdam aims to reduce the use of new
11278
09:30:47,436 --> 09:30:55,756
raw materials by 50% by 2030. The Fiat's
11279
09:30:52,400 --> 09:30:57,276
depot doesn't just scrap everything.
11280
09:30:55,756 --> 09:30:59,520
Refurbishment.
11281
09:30:57,276 --> 09:31:02,320
Bikes in decent condition are sold to
11282
09:30:59,520 --> 09:31:04,800
social enterprises or secondhand shops.
11283
09:31:02,320 --> 09:31:06,880
They are recirculated into the economy
11284
09:31:04,800 --> 09:31:09,200
at a low price point, providing
11285
09:31:06,880 --> 09:31:10,960
affordable mobility for lowincome
11286
09:31:09,200 --> 09:31:12,560
residents.
11287
09:31:10,960 --> 09:31:14,960
Education.
11288
09:31:12,560 --> 09:31:17,680
Many are used in vocational training
11289
09:31:14,960 --> 09:31:20,320
programs, turning junk, into a teaching
11290
09:31:17,680 --> 09:31:23,276
tool for future mechanics. Raw
11291
09:31:20,320 --> 09:31:26,160
materials, the unsalvageable ones, are
11292
09:31:23,276 --> 09:31:29,360
sold as highquality scrap metal, feeding
11293
09:31:26,160 --> 09:31:31,276
back into the industrial cycle.
11294
09:31:29,360 --> 09:31:34,720
What we see here is a complete life
11295
09:31:31,276 --> 09:31:36,560
cycle management of a transport mode.
11296
09:31:34,720 --> 09:31:38,560
The biggest challenge for circular
11297
09:31:36,560 --> 09:31:41,276
cities is the lack of effective
11298
09:31:38,560 --> 09:31:43,436
governance mechanisms. Amsterdam
11299
09:31:41,276 --> 09:31:45,916
succeeds because it treats the bicycle
11300
09:31:43,436 --> 09:31:48,320
as a public utility. From the
11301
09:31:45,916 --> 09:31:50,880
multi-million euro investment under the
11302
09:31:48,320 --> 09:31:52,720
water to the scrap metal in the harbor,
11303
09:31:50,880 --> 09:31:57,400
the city manages the entire
11304
09:31:52,720 --> 09:31:57,400
cradletograve cycle of the bicycle.
11305
09:31:59,276 --> 09:32:03,840
Amsterdam is no longer just building
11306
09:32:01,436 --> 09:32:07,436
bike lanes. It is building a new
11307
09:32:03,840 --> 09:32:10,720
economic DNA. The city has set a target
11308
09:32:07,436 --> 09:32:16,120
that many economists call impossible to
11309
09:32:10,720 --> 09:32:16,120
be 100% circular by 2050.
11310
09:32:16,960 --> 09:32:22,560
This means that by midentury, every gram
11311
09:32:19,756 --> 09:32:25,120
of steel in a bicycle and every stone in
11312
09:32:22,560 --> 09:32:29,040
a bridge must stay within the economic
11313
09:32:25,120 --> 09:32:32,160
loop. The take, make, waste model will
11314
09:32:29,040 --> 09:32:35,040
be extinct. For Amsterdam, the bicycle
11315
09:32:32,160 --> 09:32:37,520
is the alpha product, the test case for
11316
09:32:35,040 --> 09:32:39,756
how a city can move, consume, and
11317
09:32:37,520 --> 09:32:41,520
recycle without depleting the planet's
11318
09:32:39,756 --> 09:32:44,720
capital.
11319
09:32:41,520 --> 09:32:46,960
To reach 100% circularity, the concept
11320
09:32:44,720 --> 09:32:50,240
of private ownership is being challenged
11321
09:32:46,960 --> 09:32:52,880
by a more efficient model, product as a
11322
09:32:50,240 --> 09:32:54,960
service. You don't buy the bike, you
11323
09:32:52,880 --> 09:32:56,800
rent the mobility.
11324
09:32:54,960 --> 09:32:58,480
So we talk a lot about ownership as a
11325
09:32:56,800 --> 09:33:01,436
service, but it's this idea of, you
11326
09:32:58,480 --> 09:33:03,840
know, something as a service. So in our
11327
09:33:01,436 --> 09:33:05,840
case, bike as a service. It's all of the
11328
09:33:03,840 --> 09:33:07,520
benefits of ownership, but none of the
11329
09:33:05,840 --> 09:33:09,520
drawbacks. So none of having to deal
11330
09:33:07,520 --> 09:33:11,120
with the maintenance or or any of the
11331
09:33:09,520 --> 09:33:12,080
things that come with actually owning
11332
09:33:11,120 --> 09:33:14,400
something.
11333
09:33:12,080 --> 09:33:17,360
>> Economically, this aligns the incentives
11334
09:33:14,400 --> 09:33:20,160
of the producer and the consumer. If the
11335
09:33:17,360 --> 09:33:22,880
bike breaks, it's the company's problem,
11336
09:33:20,160 --> 09:33:24,640
not yours. by centralizing all of that
11337
09:33:22,880 --> 09:33:27,436
maintenance obviously we cut cost
11338
09:33:24,640 --> 09:33:30,320
significantly we cut waste significantly
11339
09:33:27,436 --> 09:33:32,160
um but for the individual user um they
11340
09:33:30,320 --> 09:33:33,596
have nothing to worry about you know as
11341
09:33:32,160 --> 09:33:35,040
a subscriber you get all of your
11342
09:33:33,596 --> 09:33:37,040
maintenance so we come and do
11343
09:33:35,040 --> 09:33:38,960
preventative maintenance so first of all
11344
09:33:37,040 --> 09:33:41,120
that obviously reduced the cost um
11345
09:33:38,960 --> 09:33:43,120
overall not so much to the end user but
11346
09:33:41,120 --> 09:33:45,200
the cost of the business um that
11347
09:33:43,120 --> 09:33:48,080
prevents breakdowns and things like that
11348
09:33:45,200 --> 09:33:50,960
but in the end if you think about um the
11349
09:33:48,080 --> 09:33:52,480
cost of time the cost of effort um maybe
11350
09:33:50,960 --> 09:33:54,400
you don't even know how to maintain your
11351
09:33:52,480 --> 09:33:56,160
own bike. Um, having a service that does
11352
09:33:54,400 --> 09:33:57,436
all of that for you is just a a matter
11353
09:33:56,160 --> 09:34:00,080
of convenience.
11354
09:33:57,436 --> 09:34:03,120
>> This forces manufacturers to design for
11355
09:34:00,080 --> 09:34:06,080
durability and modularity, the core
11356
09:34:03,120 --> 09:34:08,320
pillars of this circular economy. When
11357
09:34:06,080 --> 09:34:10,400
the city manages the flow and private
11358
09:34:08,320 --> 09:34:13,360
companies manage the maintenance, the
11359
09:34:10,400 --> 09:34:16,240
shadow economy of theft we saw in act
11360
09:34:13,360 --> 09:34:17,756
three begins to shrink. So, if you
11361
09:34:16,240 --> 09:34:19,276
subscribe to a bike from Clover and your
11362
09:34:17,756 --> 09:34:20,800
bike gets stolen, first of all, we
11363
09:34:19,276 --> 09:34:22,960
actually probably will notice that it
11364
09:34:20,800 --> 09:34:25,436
got stolen, maybe even before you did,
11365
09:34:22,960 --> 09:34:27,596
because we have GPS on all the bikes.
11366
09:34:25,436 --> 09:34:29,596
Um, but if it does get stolen, you use
11367
09:34:27,596 --> 09:34:31,040
our WhatsApp chat. You basically send us
11368
09:34:29,596 --> 09:34:33,596
a message and we come and bring you a
11369
09:34:31,040 --> 09:34:36,080
new bike immediately. Why steal a bike
11370
09:34:33,596 --> 09:34:38,400
that is tracked, branded, and has no
11371
09:34:36,080 --> 09:34:40,800
resale value in a subscription-based
11372
09:34:38,400 --> 09:34:42,560
market?
11373
09:34:40,800 --> 09:34:45,120
So, what is the final return on
11374
09:34:42,560 --> 09:34:48,880
investment? Let's look at the triple
11375
09:34:45,120 --> 09:34:51,276
bottom line. Public health. By avoiding
11376
09:34:48,880 --> 09:34:53,916
11,000 deaths annually through active
11377
09:34:51,276 --> 09:34:57,360
transport, the Dutch economy saves 19
11378
09:34:53,916 --> 09:35:00,800
billion in healthcare costs.
11379
09:34:57,360 --> 09:35:03,436
Urban density. By utilizing underwater
11380
09:35:00,800 --> 09:35:05,756
parking and vertical depots, Amsterdam
11381
09:35:03,436 --> 09:35:08,080
maintains a population density that
11382
09:35:05,756 --> 09:35:11,680
would be impossible with cars, keeping
11383
09:35:08,080 --> 09:35:14,400
real estate productivity at peak levels.
11384
09:35:11,680 --> 09:35:16,960
Resource independence. By reclaiming
11385
09:35:14,400 --> 09:35:19,596
metal from the Fiats depot, the city
11386
09:35:16,960 --> 09:35:22,320
insulates itself from global commodity
11387
09:35:19,596 --> 09:35:25,520
price shocks. This is a sustainable
11388
09:35:22,320 --> 09:35:27,756
urban metabolism. The city isn't just a
11389
09:35:25,520 --> 09:35:30,320
place where people live. It's a living
11390
09:35:27,756 --> 09:35:32,720
organism that processes resources with
11391
09:35:30,320 --> 09:35:34,960
maximum efficiency.
11392
09:35:32,720 --> 09:35:37,436
Amsterdam's success has sent a clear
11393
09:35:34,960 --> 09:35:39,680
message to the rest of the continent.
11394
09:35:37,436 --> 09:35:42,480
Spatial efficiency is the only way
11395
09:35:39,680 --> 09:35:44,960
forward for the modern metropolis.
11396
09:35:42,480 --> 09:35:46,960
Across Europe, the bicycle has moved
11397
09:35:44,960 --> 09:35:49,120
from being a leisure tool to a
11398
09:35:46,960 --> 09:35:51,276
cornerstone of urban recovery and
11399
09:35:49,120 --> 09:35:54,000
economic resilience.
11400
09:35:51,276 --> 09:35:57,040
In Paris, a city once defined by its
11401
09:35:54,000 --> 09:35:59,596
congestion, the plan is investing
11402
09:35:57,040 --> 09:36:03,040
hundreds of millions to become 100%
11403
09:35:59,596 --> 09:36:05,436
cyclable. In Barcelona, the super blocks
11404
09:36:03,040 --> 09:36:09,756
are reclaiming entire intersections from
11405
09:36:05,436 --> 09:36:11,436
cars to create humanentric lungs.
11406
09:36:09,756 --> 09:36:14,960
These aren't just environmental
11407
09:36:11,436 --> 09:36:17,360
projects. They are market corrections.
11408
09:36:14,960 --> 09:36:19,916
The cities are betting that a quieter,
11409
09:36:17,360 --> 09:36:22,320
cleaner, and more agile urban center
11410
09:36:19,916 --> 09:36:25,200
will attract more talent, more tourism,
11411
09:36:22,320 --> 09:36:27,840
and higher property values.
11412
09:36:25,200 --> 09:36:30,320
From the cycle superighways of London to
11413
09:36:27,840 --> 09:36:33,360
the industrial hubs of Germany, the
11414
09:36:30,320 --> 09:36:36,640
economic logic is consistent. Replacing
11415
09:36:33,360 --> 09:36:39,120
a 1 and 1/2 ton vehicle with a 15 kg
11416
09:36:36,640 --> 09:36:41,040
machine reduces the cost of maintenance
11417
09:36:39,120 --> 09:36:43,916
for the city and increases the
11418
09:36:41,040 --> 09:36:46,080
productivity of the citizen.
11419
09:36:43,916 --> 09:36:48,320
But while northern capitals have the
11420
09:36:46,080 --> 09:36:51,040
advantage of decades of infrastructure,
11421
09:36:48,320 --> 09:36:53,040
the real test is happening in the south.
11422
09:36:51,040 --> 09:36:55,276
In the Mediterranean, where the street
11423
09:36:53,040 --> 09:36:57,596
is a social space and the sun is a
11424
09:36:55,276 --> 09:37:00,240
constant resource, a new leader is
11425
09:36:57,596 --> 09:37:02,720
emerging. A city that has used the
11426
09:37:00,240 --> 09:37:06,520
Amsterdam blueprint to transform itself
11427
09:37:02,720 --> 09:37:06,520
at record speed.
11428
09:37:12,560 --> 09:37:15,560
Fore
11429
09:37:33,436 --> 09:37:36,436
speech.
11430
09:38:09,680 --> 09:38:15,720
If Amsterdam is the blueprint, Valencia
11431
09:38:12,240 --> 09:38:15,720
is the laboratory.
11432
09:38:17,680 --> 09:38:20,680
Yes.
11433
09:38:37,916 --> 09:38:41,400
I could as
11434
09:38:59,596 --> 09:39:03,680
in less than a decade, this
11435
09:39:01,200 --> 09:39:06,160
Mediterranean city has transitioned from
11436
09:39:03,680 --> 09:39:09,840
a car ccentric capital to a global
11437
09:39:06,160 --> 09:39:09,840
reference in urban metabolism.
11438
09:39:31,840 --> 09:39:37,520
Valencia's transformation wasn't a
11439
09:39:34,160 --> 09:39:39,680
matter of vibes or romanticism. It was a
11440
09:39:37,520 --> 09:39:41,276
calculated investment in spatial
11441
09:39:39,680 --> 09:39:43,520
efficiency.
11442
09:39:41,276 --> 09:39:45,040
>> I think attracting top global talent
11443
09:39:43,520 --> 09:39:46,880
means that you need to have a vibrant,
11444
09:39:45,040 --> 09:39:48,960
livable city. And I think most young
11445
09:39:46,880 --> 09:39:51,120
people um particularly who are coming
11446
09:39:48,960 --> 09:39:53,200
into the workforce now are looking for
11447
09:39:51,120 --> 09:39:55,680
ways to get around a city that doesn't
11448
09:39:53,200 --> 09:39:58,240
rely on public transit. They don't want
11449
09:39:55,680 --> 09:40:00,240
to own a car um because car ownership is
11450
09:39:58,240 --> 09:40:02,480
a total burden. Having to find parking,
11451
09:40:00,240 --> 09:40:04,000
insurance, cost of the car, all of that.
11452
09:40:02,480 --> 09:40:06,240
So having this accessible
11453
09:40:04,000 --> 09:40:08,080
infrastructure, cycling infrastructure
11454
09:40:06,240 --> 09:40:10,080
specifically, and in a city like
11455
09:40:08,080 --> 09:40:12,000
Valencia that, you know, already has a
11456
09:40:10,080 --> 09:40:14,400
lot of reasons to attract top talent,
11457
09:40:12,000 --> 09:40:16,240
just makes it that much better. Um,
11458
09:40:14,400 --> 09:40:18,000
cycling is a preferred way to get around
11459
09:40:16,240 --> 09:40:20,000
in Valencia, we're number seven in the
11460
09:40:18,000 --> 09:40:22,000
world for cycling to work, for example.
11461
09:40:20,000 --> 09:40:24,160
So adding a layer of an easy
11462
09:40:22,000 --> 09:40:26,480
subscription ebike service to that just
11463
09:40:24,160 --> 09:40:28,400
again attracts even more um top talent
11464
09:40:26,480 --> 09:40:31,436
to the city.
11465
09:40:28,400 --> 09:40:33,520
By implementing the Anilo Crista, the
11466
09:40:31,436 --> 09:40:36,320
city has reclaimed high value public
11467
09:40:33,520 --> 09:40:38,640
space to boost local commerce and reduce
11468
09:40:36,320 --> 09:40:40,800
the toxic liability of the car.
11469
09:40:38,640 --> 09:40:42,560
>> It's important to remember that um often
11470
09:40:40,800 --> 09:40:44,240
times with cars, although they can fit
11471
09:40:42,560 --> 09:40:46,240
multiple people, most of the time it's
11472
09:40:44,240 --> 09:40:48,000
one person per one car. So when we're
11473
09:40:46,240 --> 09:40:49,916
asking about, you know, 10 bikes versus
11474
09:40:48,000 --> 09:40:52,160
one car, we're essentially saying 10
11475
09:40:49,916 --> 09:40:53,916
people versus one person. So we have a
11476
09:40:52,160 --> 09:40:55,360
10x multiplier on essentially everything
11477
09:40:53,916 --> 09:40:56,640
that's happening on that street. Whether
11478
09:40:55,360 --> 09:40:57,840
that be visits to the businesses,
11479
09:40:56,640 --> 09:40:59,520
whether that be transactions and
11480
09:40:57,840 --> 09:41:01,120
purchases, everything gets that 10x
11481
09:40:59,520 --> 09:41:02,000
multiplier and increases revenue for the
11482
09:41:01,120 --> 09:41:04,400
whole street.
11483
09:41:02,000 --> 09:41:06,800
>> In economics, this is the optimization
11484
09:41:04,400 --> 09:41:09,040
of land use. The same principle that
11485
09:41:06,800 --> 09:41:09,840
drove Amsterdam to build under its
11486
09:41:09,040 --> 09:41:11,680
canals.
11487
09:41:09,840 --> 09:41:14,480
>> If I'm cycling and I pass by, for
11488
09:41:11,680 --> 09:41:15,756
example, a bakery, go I smell that
11489
09:41:14,480 --> 09:41:17,040
bakery and I go, "Oh, you know what?
11490
09:41:15,756 --> 09:41:18,880
Maybe I'm going to stop in, try
11491
09:41:17,040 --> 09:41:20,320
something one of those products." Um,
11492
09:41:18,880 --> 09:41:21,680
you know, essentially become a patron of
11493
09:41:20,320 --> 09:41:23,120
that business. Whereas if I'm passing by
11494
09:41:21,680 --> 09:41:25,680
in a car, there's no chance of that
11495
09:41:23,120 --> 09:41:27,436
happening. And the other benefit is um
11496
09:41:25,680 --> 09:41:29,276
car parking also has this sort of
11497
09:41:27,436 --> 09:41:30,960
psychological effect on the streets and
11498
09:41:29,276 --> 09:41:32,640
the people that live there. Car parking
11499
09:41:30,960 --> 09:41:34,720
makes the space feel a lot more closed
11500
09:41:32,640 --> 09:41:36,160
in and a lot more cramped than bike
11501
09:41:34,720 --> 09:41:37,360
parking, which keeps the space very nice
11502
09:41:36,160 --> 09:41:39,276
and open.
11503
09:41:37,360 --> 09:41:42,160
>> Emerging businesses are shifting the
11504
09:41:39,276 --> 09:41:44,400
market from ownership to usership.
11505
09:41:42,160 --> 09:41:46,000
>> You know, our customers, they depend on
11506
09:41:44,400 --> 09:41:48,400
their bikes as a reliable way to get
11507
09:41:46,000 --> 09:41:50,880
around. And so we use an ownership as a
11508
09:41:48,400 --> 09:41:53,200
service model. So instead of owning the
11509
09:41:50,880 --> 09:41:54,960
asset yourself um you subscribe to it
11510
09:41:53,200 --> 09:41:56,720
from us and we think that's what
11511
09:41:54,960 --> 09:41:58,560
customers need in terms of reliable
11512
09:41:56,720 --> 09:42:01,200
day-to-day transportation. If you look
11513
09:41:58,560 --> 09:42:03,840
at something like Lime or Valen BC they
11514
09:42:01,200 --> 09:42:06,240
will have that idle asset problem. Um
11515
09:42:03,840 --> 09:42:08,480
and certainly ownership obviously the
11516
09:42:06,240 --> 09:42:10,800
same thing but with us you know handling
11517
09:42:08,480 --> 09:42:13,040
maintenance, battery swapping, theft
11518
09:42:10,800 --> 09:42:15,120
protection, insurance, all of that. Um
11519
09:42:13,040 --> 09:42:17,040
and yet still having access to the bike
11520
09:42:15,120 --> 09:42:19,520
anytime you want. It's your bike.
11521
09:42:17,040 --> 09:42:21,840
Subscription models like Swap Fiats,
11522
09:42:19,520 --> 09:42:24,640
which already dominate the Dutch market,
11523
09:42:21,840 --> 09:42:26,960
are landing in Valencia. These companies
11524
09:42:24,640 --> 09:42:28,880
treat the bike as a service, covering
11525
09:42:26,960 --> 09:42:29,756
all maintenance and repairs for a
11526
09:42:28,880 --> 09:42:31,680
monthly fee.
11527
09:42:29,756 --> 09:42:33,840
>> You ownership isn't necessarily a bad
11528
09:42:31,680 --> 09:42:35,520
investment, but I think um most
11529
09:42:33,840 --> 09:42:36,880
consumers are moving away from owning
11530
09:42:35,520 --> 09:42:38,720
things. You know, people are leasing
11531
09:42:36,880 --> 09:42:41,360
their cars, people are, you know, more
11532
09:42:38,720 --> 09:42:43,120
and more renting their homes. Um so for
11533
09:42:41,360 --> 09:42:45,360
us, a subscription model made sense.
11534
09:42:43,120 --> 09:42:47,596
That and affordability. This eliminates
11535
09:42:45,360 --> 09:42:50,560
the fear of theft and long-term
11536
09:42:47,596 --> 09:42:52,800
depreciation, turning the bicycle into a
11537
09:42:50,560 --> 09:42:56,080
predictable, low- friction utility for
11538
09:42:52,800 --> 09:42:59,040
the modern worker. The impact extends to
11539
09:42:56,080 --> 09:43:01,040
logistics. In Valencia's historic
11540
09:42:59,040 --> 09:43:03,360
center, where large trucks are
11541
09:43:01,040 --> 09:43:05,916
increasingly restricted, last mile
11542
09:43:03,360 --> 09:43:08,400
delivery by cargo bike is becoming the
11543
09:43:05,916 --> 09:43:11,436
gold standard for efficiency. We are
11544
09:43:08,400 --> 09:43:13,680
witnessing the birth of microhubs, small
11545
09:43:11,436 --> 09:43:16,320
urban distribution centers that allow
11546
09:43:13,680 --> 09:43:19,276
for zero emission high-speed delivery in
11547
09:43:16,320 --> 09:43:21,520
highdensity zones. From the massive
11548
09:43:19,276 --> 09:43:23,520
underwater investments in Amsterdam to
11549
09:43:21,520 --> 09:43:26,800
the emerging subscription models in
11550
09:43:23,520 --> 09:43:29,680
Valencia, the message is clear. The
11551
09:43:26,800 --> 09:43:32,240
bicycle is no longer just a hobby. It is
11552
09:43:29,680 --> 09:43:34,080
a financial instrument and a spatial
11553
09:43:32,240 --> 09:43:35,200
optimizer.
11554
09:43:34,080 --> 09:43:37,596
You know, when we were speaking to
11555
09:43:35,200 --> 09:43:39,916
consumers about how we could get them to
11556
09:43:37,596 --> 09:43:41,840
switch from a car to an ebike, it was
11557
09:43:39,916 --> 09:43:44,080
all about convenience. So, it was about
11558
09:43:41,840 --> 09:43:46,080
this idea that, you know, with a car,
11559
09:43:44,080 --> 09:43:47,756
you can go point A to point B whenever
11560
09:43:46,080 --> 09:43:49,916
you want. You're not relying on public
11561
09:43:47,756 --> 09:43:51,916
transit or any of those things. But if
11562
09:43:49,916 --> 09:43:53,596
you need gas, you go to a gas station,
11563
09:43:51,916 --> 09:43:55,916
it takes 5 minutes, and you're back on
11564
09:43:53,596 --> 09:43:57,840
your way. People perceived ebikes as
11565
09:43:55,916 --> 09:43:59,276
inconvenient because, oh, what if I
11566
09:43:57,840 --> 09:44:01,436
forget to charge the battery? Then it's
11567
09:43:59,276 --> 09:44:03,596
just kind of a very heavy paper weight.
11568
09:44:01,436 --> 09:44:05,200
Um, but if we eliminate that need for
11569
09:44:03,596 --> 09:44:07,756
charging and people can just come and
11570
09:44:05,200 --> 09:44:09,756
collect a charge battery anytime, um, it
11571
09:44:07,756 --> 09:44:11,596
helps break that barrier to entry for
11572
09:44:09,756 --> 09:44:13,840
getting out of a car.
11573
09:44:11,596 --> 09:44:16,080
>> By integrating these new business models
11574
09:44:13,840 --> 09:44:18,640
with public planning, Valencia is
11575
09:44:16,080 --> 09:44:21,680
securing its place in the 21st century
11576
09:44:18,640 --> 09:44:24,240
economy. Proving that a dense functional
11577
09:44:21,680 --> 09:44:26,240
city isn't just a choice, it's a
11578
09:44:24,240 --> 09:44:28,080
competitive necessity.
11579
09:44:26,240 --> 09:44:30,160
>> Ultimately, private car ownership is
11580
09:44:28,080 --> 09:44:31,680
going to become obsolete. Cities are
11581
09:44:30,160 --> 09:44:33,360
building for pedestrians. They're
11582
09:44:31,680 --> 09:44:35,916
building for cycling. They're building
11583
09:44:33,360 --> 09:44:37,916
for livability, not for cars.
11584
09:44:35,916 --> 09:44:40,000
>> Throughout this documentary, we have
11585
09:44:37,916 --> 09:44:43,120
seen the gears of a massive economic
11586
09:44:40,000 --> 09:44:46,000
machine. But there is a final myth we
11587
09:44:43,120 --> 09:44:48,480
must dismantle. The idea that cities
11588
09:44:46,000 --> 09:44:50,880
like Amsterdam or Valencia look like
11589
09:44:48,480 --> 09:44:53,436
this because their citizens are simply
11590
09:44:50,880 --> 09:44:57,200
different. History tells a different
11591
09:44:53,436 --> 09:44:59,120
story. In the 1970s, Amsterdam was on
11592
09:44:57,200 --> 09:45:01,756
the verge of becoming another car
11593
09:44:59,120 --> 09:45:04,320
ccentric congested metropolis.
11594
09:45:01,756 --> 09:45:07,040
The transition we see today wasn't a
11595
09:45:04,320 --> 09:45:09,680
natural evolution of culture. It was a
11596
09:45:07,040 --> 09:45:12,480
hostile takeover of urban space by a
11597
09:45:09,680 --> 09:45:15,360
policy and planning. When a city reaches
11598
09:45:12,480 --> 09:45:17,360
a certain density, freedom of choice in
11599
09:45:15,360 --> 09:45:18,880
transport becomes a mathematical
11600
09:45:17,360 --> 09:45:22,400
impossibility.
11601
09:45:18,880 --> 09:45:24,880
If everyone chooses a car, no one moves.
11602
09:45:22,400 --> 09:45:27,840
In this highstakes environment, planning
11603
09:45:24,880 --> 09:45:30,560
is not an option. It is the only way to
11604
09:45:27,840 --> 09:45:34,720
survive. What is the ultimate harvest of
11605
09:45:30,560 --> 09:45:37,120
this planning? It is the 3% GDP boost we
11606
09:45:34,720 --> 09:45:39,360
mentioned at the start. But it's also
11607
09:45:37,120 --> 09:45:42,560
found in the margins,
11608
09:45:39,360 --> 09:45:44,400
the fiscal savings by avoiding the need
11609
09:45:42,560 --> 09:45:46,880
for multi-billion euro highway
11610
09:45:44,400 --> 09:45:49,756
expansions and massive health care costs
11611
09:45:46,880 --> 09:45:52,800
related to sedentary lifestyles.
11612
09:45:49,756 --> 09:45:55,040
The resilience factor by creating a
11613
09:45:52,800 --> 09:45:57,916
circular metropolis that can process its
11614
09:45:55,040 --> 09:45:59,916
own waste at the Kruu depot and turn it
11615
09:45:57,916 --> 09:46:03,040
back into capital.
11616
09:45:59,916 --> 09:46:05,200
The talent magnet in the global war for
11617
09:46:03,040 --> 09:46:08,480
talent. Highly skilled workers choose
11618
09:46:05,200 --> 09:46:10,720
cities based on livability. Amsterdam's
11619
09:46:08,480 --> 09:46:13,436
bicycle infrastructure is its most
11620
09:46:10,720 --> 09:46:15,200
effective recruitment tool. We started
11621
09:46:13,436 --> 09:46:18,480
this journey looking at a simple
11622
09:46:15,200 --> 09:46:21,040
machine, two wheels and a frame. But as
11623
09:46:18,480 --> 09:46:24,000
we've seen, the bicycle in Amsterdam is
11624
09:46:21,040 --> 09:46:26,640
much more than a transport mode. It is a
11625
09:46:24,000 --> 09:46:29,596
financial instrument. It is a spatial
11626
09:46:26,640 --> 09:46:32,560
optimizer. It is the invisible engine
11627
09:46:29,596 --> 09:46:36,480
that allows a medieval city to function
11628
09:46:32,560 --> 09:46:39,436
as a 21st century economic powerhouse.
11629
09:46:36,480 --> 09:46:41,916
The €85 million spent on underwater
11630
09:46:39,436 --> 09:46:44,960
tunnels, the complex logistics of the
11631
09:46:41,916 --> 09:46:47,680
Kruius depot, or the new Mediterranean
11632
09:46:44,960 --> 09:46:51,520
bike lanes are not costs.
11633
09:46:47,680 --> 09:46:54,000
They are investments in resilience.
11634
09:46:51,520 --> 09:46:56,240
In a world of rising energy prices and
11635
09:46:54,000 --> 09:46:59,276
shrinking urban space, the Amsterdam
11636
09:46:56,240 --> 09:47:01,436
model offers a glimpse into the future.
11637
09:46:59,276 --> 09:47:04,160
It proves that the most sophisticated
11638
09:47:01,436 --> 09:47:06,960
technology isn't always a new gadget.
11639
09:47:04,160 --> 09:47:10,240
Sometimes it's the perfect integration
11640
09:47:06,960 --> 09:47:13,240
of an old idea into a new circular
11641
09:47:10,240 --> 09:47:13,240
world.
11642
09:48:28,560 --> 09:48:32,400
imagine for a moment, what if your
11643
09:48:30,560 --> 09:48:34,400
Bitcoin holdings could purchase more
11644
09:48:32,400 --> 09:48:36,960
than just everyday items like coffee or
11645
09:48:34,400 --> 09:48:38,960
the latest gadgets? What if that digital
11646
09:48:36,960 --> 09:48:41,520
currency sitting in your wallet could
11647
09:48:38,960 --> 09:48:43,520
actually buy you a house or perhaps even
11648
09:48:41,520 --> 09:48:46,520
an entire commercial building? real
11649
09:48:43,520 --> 09:48:46,520
estate.
11650
09:48:51,276 --> 09:48:54,276
Bitcoin.
11651
09:48:56,160 --> 09:49:00,240
Welcome to the fascinating and rapidly
11652
09:48:58,160 --> 09:49:02,000
evolving world of crypto real estate
11653
09:49:00,240 --> 09:49:06,596
where digital assets are being
11654
09:49:02,000 --> 09:49:06,596
transformed into tangible property.
11655
09:49:10,480 --> 09:49:13,680
Today, we're taking a deep dive into the
11656
09:49:12,480 --> 09:49:15,680
revolutionary intersection of
11657
09:49:13,680 --> 09:49:18,160
cryptocurrency and property ownership,
11658
09:49:15,680 --> 09:49:20,480
examining in detail how Bitcoin is
11659
09:49:18,160 --> 09:49:22,400
successfully transforming what were once
11660
09:49:20,480 --> 09:49:24,560
purely digital coins into tangible
11661
09:49:22,400 --> 09:49:26,160
physical real estate investments.
11662
09:49:24,560 --> 09:49:28,160
Whether you're an experienced crypto
11663
09:49:26,160 --> 09:49:30,080
investor looking to diversify your
11664
09:49:28,160 --> 09:49:31,680
portfolio or simply someone who's
11665
09:49:30,080 --> 09:49:33,916
curious about emerging trends in
11666
09:49:31,680 --> 09:49:35,840
property markets, this is an in-depth
11667
09:49:33,916 --> 09:49:37,436
look at how the landscape and future of
11668
09:49:35,840 --> 09:49:39,520
real estate transactions is
11669
09:49:37,436 --> 09:49:42,160
fundamentally evolving and changing
11670
09:49:39,520 --> 09:49:44,160
before our eyes.
11671
09:49:42,160 --> 09:49:46,080
The financial world is in constant
11672
09:49:44,160 --> 09:49:48,160
transformation, but in this decade,
11673
09:49:46,080 --> 09:49:51,520
digitalization has accelerated that
11674
09:49:48,160 --> 09:49:54,400
change faster than anyone imagined.
11675
09:49:51,520 --> 09:49:56,560
Today, money, investments, and assets
11676
09:49:54,400 --> 09:49:59,276
flow through codes silent, transparent,
11677
09:49:56,560 --> 09:50:02,080
and borderless. Cryptocurrencies led by
11678
09:49:59,276 --> 09:50:04,080
Bitcoin mark the beginning of a new era.
11679
09:50:02,080 --> 09:50:05,840
They shook the foundations of the global
11680
09:50:04,080 --> 09:50:08,640
financial system, sparking both
11681
09:50:05,840 --> 09:50:11,360
excitement and skepticism. Yet, behind
11682
09:50:08,640 --> 09:50:15,560
that phenomenon emerged something even
11683
09:50:11,360 --> 09:50:15,560
deeper. Tokenization.
11684
09:50:17,680 --> 09:50:20,680
Contraos.
11685
09:50:36,480 --> 09:50:40,040
Real world assets.
11686
09:51:00,160 --> 09:51:02,240
Moment.
11687
09:51:12,400 --> 09:51:16,400
tokenization brings. So it's the most
11688
09:51:13,916 --> 09:51:18,000
suitable, most modern ledger technology
11689
09:51:16,400 --> 09:51:18,720
uh ideal for modernizing capital
11690
09:51:18,000 --> 09:51:21,916
markets.
11691
09:51:18,720 --> 09:51:23,916
>> The idea is simple, the impact enormous.
11692
09:51:21,916 --> 09:51:26,560
Each token represents a fraction of an
11693
09:51:23,916 --> 09:51:28,560
asset, a share, a bond, a property, or
11694
09:51:26,560 --> 09:51:30,640
even a work of art. All recorded on a
11695
09:51:28,560 --> 09:51:33,640
blockchain, a global tamper proof
11696
09:51:30,640 --> 09:51:33,640
ledger.
11697
09:51:50,800 --> 09:51:54,200
Smart contracts.
11698
09:52:08,480 --> 09:52:12,480
We believe the next step going forward
11699
09:52:10,320 --> 09:52:16,160
will be the tokenization of financial
11700
09:52:12,480 --> 09:52:18,400
assets. And that means every stock,
11701
09:52:16,160 --> 09:52:21,200
every bond will have its own basically
11702
09:52:18,400 --> 09:52:23,680
QIP. It'll be on one general ledger.
11703
09:52:21,200 --> 09:52:26,080
>> In other words, a token isn't just an
11704
09:52:23,680 --> 09:52:28,400
asset. It's a digital entry in a new
11705
09:52:26,080 --> 09:52:30,720
kind of ledger that is rewriting how
11706
09:52:28,400 --> 09:52:32,960
capital markets keep their books.
11707
09:52:30,720 --> 09:52:34,480
Investment in tokenized real estates
11708
09:52:32,960 --> 09:52:36,720
represents one of the most recent
11709
09:52:34,480 --> 09:52:38,960
advancements in the property industry.
11710
09:52:36,720 --> 09:52:41,436
Tokenization enables houses and
11711
09:52:38,960 --> 09:52:45,480
apartments to be divided and sold and
11712
09:52:41,436 --> 09:52:45,480
numerous smaller units.
11713
09:52:54,800 --> 09:52:57,800
Fractional
11714
09:53:31,916 --> 09:53:36,320
small programs act like a bridge between
11715
09:53:33,756 --> 09:53:38,080
a property and online trading platform.
11716
09:53:36,320 --> 09:53:39,520
Hence, tokens create a digital
11717
09:53:38,080 --> 09:53:43,880
representation of a property,
11718
09:53:39,520 --> 09:53:43,880
facilitating its digital transfer.
11719
09:53:45,276 --> 09:53:49,200
The process of purchasing a property is
11720
09:53:47,436 --> 09:53:51,596
still associated with significant
11721
09:53:49,200 --> 09:53:54,000
bureaucracy, lengthy procedures, and
11722
09:53:51,596 --> 09:53:57,360
subsequent high costs.
11723
09:53:54,000 --> 09:53:59,756
So what exactly is crypto real estate?
11724
09:53:57,360 --> 09:54:02,080
At its core, the term refers to any real
11725
09:53:59,756 --> 09:54:04,880
estate transaction where cryptocurrency
11726
09:54:02,080 --> 09:54:07,360
plays a major role either as a direct
11727
09:54:04,880 --> 09:54:11,640
form of payment, a converted asset, or
11728
09:54:07,360 --> 09:54:11,640
collateral for purchasing property.
11729
09:54:14,640 --> 09:54:17,880
real estate,
11730
09:54:19,200 --> 09:54:22,200
Bitcoins.
11731
09:54:39,120 --> 09:54:43,320
Crypto reference loans.
11732
09:55:02,960 --> 09:55:07,916
But the concept goes even deeper than
11733
09:55:05,680 --> 09:55:09,916
that. Crypto real estate includes buying
11734
09:55:07,916 --> 09:55:12,000
a home directly with Bitcoin or other
11735
09:55:09,916 --> 09:55:15,040
cryptocurrencies, using stable coins
11736
09:55:12,000 --> 09:55:18,080
like USDT or USDC for a more stable
11737
09:55:15,040 --> 09:55:19,916
purchase, converting crypto into fiat at
11738
09:55:18,080 --> 09:55:21,436
closing, taking out loans backed by
11739
09:55:19,916 --> 09:55:23,120
cryptocurrency to purchase real
11740
09:55:21,436 --> 09:55:25,120
property, tokenized real estate where
11741
09:55:23,120 --> 09:55:26,720
ownership is fractionalized into digital
11742
09:55:25,120 --> 09:55:28,400
token, blockchain based property
11743
09:55:26,720 --> 09:55:31,400
records, and smart contract driven
11744
09:55:28,400 --> 09:55:31,400
transactions.
11745
09:55:43,520 --> 09:55:46,916
Stable coins
11746
09:56:00,640 --> 09:56:02,720
coins.
11747
09:56:12,320 --> 09:56:16,360
EMT ether
11748
09:56:27,040 --> 09:56:29,756
USDT.
11749
09:56:33,840 --> 09:56:36,840
USDC.
11750
09:56:49,276 --> 09:56:52,276
US
11751
09:56:56,560 --> 09:57:00,040
stable coinry.
11752
09:57:16,960 --> 09:57:19,960
for
11753
09:57:42,880 --> 09:57:46,276
stable coins.
11754
09:57:52,240 --> 09:57:56,640
It's an evolution in how value moves
11755
09:57:54,480 --> 09:57:58,800
around the world. And for the first
11756
09:57:56,640 --> 09:58:03,240
time, digital wealth is becoming a
11757
09:57:58,800 --> 09:58:03,240
direct pathway to physical ownership.
11758
09:58:04,800 --> 09:58:08,640
To understand how we arrived at this
11759
09:58:06,800 --> 09:58:11,200
moment, we need to step back and look at
11760
09:58:08,640 --> 09:58:13,276
the timeline. Bitcoin launched in 2009
11761
09:58:11,200 --> 09:58:15,200
as a peer-to-peer digital alternative to
11762
09:58:13,276 --> 09:58:16,960
money. In its early years, the idea of
11763
09:58:15,200 --> 09:58:19,360
using Bitcoin to buy real estate was
11764
09:58:16,960 --> 09:58:21,520
laughable. But Bitcoin grew. First
11765
09:58:19,360 --> 09:58:24,160
crossing $1, then a hundred, then a
11766
09:58:21,520 --> 09:58:26,720
thousand, then tens of thousands. A new
11767
09:58:24,160 --> 09:58:28,720
wave of wealth was created. Suddenly,
11768
09:58:26,720 --> 09:58:30,880
early adopters who once bought pizza
11769
09:58:28,720 --> 09:58:33,916
with Bitcoin now had enough digital
11770
09:58:30,880 --> 09:58:36,240
value to buy entire homes, and sellers
11771
09:58:33,916 --> 09:58:38,240
began paying attention. The first public
11772
09:58:36,240 --> 09:58:41,520
record of a property purchased fully in
11773
09:58:38,240 --> 09:58:43,680
Bitcoin dates back to 2017. From there,
11774
09:58:41,520 --> 09:58:46,240
the trend spread to luxury markets.
11775
09:58:43,680 --> 09:58:48,640
Miami, Los Angeles, New York, Dubai, and
11776
09:58:46,240 --> 09:58:50,400
London. Developers began marketing
11777
09:58:48,640 --> 09:58:53,200
properties specifically to crypto
11778
09:58:50,400 --> 09:58:56,080
buyers. Brokers started specializing in
11779
09:58:53,200 --> 09:58:57,596
crypto transactions. Escrow companies
11780
09:58:56,080 --> 09:58:59,360
adapted.
11781
09:58:57,596 --> 09:59:02,720
Even governments began studying
11782
09:58:59,360 --> 09:59:05,200
blockchainbased property registries.
11783
09:59:02,720 --> 09:59:07,756
Buying real estate with Bitcoin isn't
11784
09:59:05,200 --> 09:59:09,680
science fiction. Some sellers now accept
11785
09:59:07,756 --> 09:59:11,596
crypto directly, while others work
11786
09:59:09,680 --> 09:59:14,800
through brokers who convert Bitcoin into
11787
09:59:11,596 --> 09:59:16,960
local currency. The process is faster,
11788
09:59:14,800 --> 09:59:19,276
borderless, and sometimes even tax
11789
09:59:16,960 --> 09:59:21,680
efficient if you know the rules. Things
11790
09:59:19,276 --> 09:59:25,120
that sounded impossible in 2010 became
11791
09:59:21,680 --> 09:59:27,360
normal by 2020. And now in the 2020s,
11792
09:59:25,120 --> 09:59:29,756
cryptocurrency is becoming a serious
11793
09:59:27,360 --> 09:59:31,680
player in global real estate. The crypto
11794
09:59:29,756 --> 09:59:33,916
boom has created a new class of
11795
09:59:31,680 --> 09:59:36,480
investors. High- netw worth individuals
11796
09:59:33,916 --> 09:59:39,120
want to diversify and real estate is a
11797
09:59:36,480 --> 09:59:42,000
safe tangible asset. From luxury homes
11798
09:59:39,120 --> 09:59:44,320
in Miami to condos in Dubai, Bitcoin
11799
09:59:42,000 --> 09:59:46,240
buyers are making their mark. Let's look
11800
09:59:44,320 --> 09:59:48,080
at a few real world examples to
11801
09:59:46,240 --> 09:59:51,756
understand how crypto real estate works
11802
09:59:48,080 --> 09:59:54,240
in practice. Case study one. In 2021, a
11803
09:59:51,756 --> 09:59:56,720
luxury penthouse at Arte by Antonio
11804
09:59:54,240 --> 10:00:00,080
Satario in Surfside, Florida made
11805
09:59:56,720 --> 10:00:02,000
history. The property sold for $22.5
11806
10:00:00,080 --> 10:00:04,320
million, paid entirely in
11807
10:00:02,000 --> 10:00:06,480
cryptocurrency. The largest publicly
11808
10:00:04,320 --> 10:00:09,040
known real estate transaction completed
11809
10:00:06,480 --> 10:00:10,560
using digital assets at the time. A
11810
10:00:09,040 --> 10:00:12,880
developer's decision to accept
11811
10:00:10,560 --> 10:00:14,880
cryptocurrency had paid off. The sale
11812
10:00:12,880 --> 10:00:16,560
came just weeks after the developer
11813
10:00:14,880 --> 10:00:18,320
announced it would begin accepting
11814
10:00:16,560 --> 10:00:19,916
cryptocurrency payments through a
11815
10:00:18,320 --> 10:00:22,080
partnership with blockchain platform
11816
10:00:19,916 --> 10:00:24,000
Solid Block. According to Forbes, the
11817
10:00:22,080 --> 10:00:26,720
deal demonstrated that crypto was no
11818
10:00:24,000 --> 10:00:28,880
longer just a speculative asset. It had
11819
10:00:26,720 --> 10:00:31,840
become a viable method for purchasing
11820
10:00:28,880 --> 10:00:34,400
high-end real estate. Case study 2. In
11821
10:00:31,840 --> 10:00:36,400
Dubai, one of the earliest large-scale
11822
10:00:34,400 --> 10:00:39,200
experiments with crypto real estate
11823
10:00:36,400 --> 10:00:42,080
unfolded at Aston Plaza and residences
11824
10:00:39,200 --> 10:00:44,000
located in Dubai Science Park. Marketed
11825
10:00:42,080 --> 10:00:46,240
as one of the first major developments
11826
10:00:44,000 --> 10:00:48,000
in the region to accept Bitcoin. The
11827
10:00:46,240 --> 10:00:50,320
project offered apartments priced
11828
10:00:48,000 --> 10:00:52,320
directly in cryptocurrency.
11829
10:00:50,320 --> 10:00:55,120
Buyers were able to commit funds using
11830
10:00:52,320 --> 10:00:56,960
Bitcoin, capturing global attention. But
11831
10:00:55,120 --> 10:00:59,840
the story also revealed the risks of
11832
10:00:56,960 --> 10:01:03,360
innovation. Originally advertised as a
11833
10:00:59,840 --> 10:01:05,520
$325 million development. The project
11834
10:01:03,360 --> 10:01:07,916
later stalled and its completion became
11835
10:01:05,520 --> 10:01:10,800
uncertain. While crypto payments were
11836
10:01:07,916 --> 10:01:12,960
accepted, it remains unclear whether all
11837
10:01:10,800 --> 10:01:15,276
buyers ultimately received finished
11838
10:01:12,960 --> 10:01:17,840
properties. The case highlighted both
11839
10:01:15,276 --> 10:01:20,720
the promise and the pitfalls of early
11840
10:01:17,840 --> 10:01:23,756
crypto adoption real estate. Case study
11841
10:01:20,720 --> 10:01:25,596
three. In 2025, Spain recorded one of
11842
10:01:23,756 --> 10:01:28,240
its first officially reported property
11843
10:01:25,596 --> 10:01:31,200
sales completed with Bitcoin. A property
11844
10:01:28,240 --> 10:01:33,120
in Madrid valued at approximately 1.5
11845
10:01:31,200 --> 10:01:35,360
million of euros was purchased by an
11846
10:01:33,120 --> 10:01:37,276
international buyer using Bitcoin. The
11847
10:01:35,360 --> 10:01:39,916
transaction followed standard real
11848
10:01:37,276 --> 10:01:42,320
estate procedures including escrow,
11849
10:01:39,916 --> 10:01:44,640
legal compliance, and the conversion of
11850
10:01:42,320 --> 10:01:46,640
crypto into euros for the seller. It
11851
10:01:44,640 --> 10:01:48,640
marked a significant milestone showing
11852
10:01:46,640 --> 10:01:50,880
that cryptocurrency could integrate into
11853
10:01:48,640 --> 10:01:53,436
traditional real estate systems even in
11854
10:01:50,880 --> 10:01:56,080
highly regulated European markets. Case
11855
10:01:53,436 --> 10:01:58,640
study 4. In the United States, crypto
11856
10:01:56,080 --> 10:02:01,200
adoption hasn't been limited to coastal
11857
10:01:58,640 --> 10:02:03,596
tech hubs. An agent with Safabis
11858
10:02:01,200 --> 10:02:06,400
International Realy in Delaware reported
11859
10:02:03,596 --> 10:02:09,276
selling a luxury property for $175
11860
10:02:06,400 --> 10:02:11,276
million paid in Bitcoin. Believed to be
11861
10:02:09,276 --> 10:02:13,040
one of the state's first major real
11862
10:02:11,276 --> 10:02:15,276
estate transactions involving
11863
10:02:13,040 --> 10:02:17,360
cryptocurrency, the sale was widely
11864
10:02:15,276 --> 10:02:19,276
publicized as a local milestone,
11865
10:02:17,360 --> 10:02:21,276
signaling that crypto real estate was
11866
10:02:19,276 --> 10:02:25,960
beginning to reach beyond niche markets
11867
10:02:21,276 --> 10:02:25,960
and into everyday property transactions.
11868
10:02:26,720 --> 10:02:30,120
Genius Act.
11869
10:02:42,160 --> 10:02:46,200
different stable coins.
11870
10:03:24,640 --> 10:03:28,120
Maximum. foro.
11871
10:04:17,596 --> 10:04:22,160
Taken together, these cases tell a
11872
10:04:19,596 --> 10:04:24,400
larger story, one of experimentation,
11873
10:04:22,160 --> 10:04:26,720
success, setbacks, and growing
11874
10:04:24,400 --> 10:04:28,960
legitimacy. Crypto real estate is no
11875
10:04:26,720 --> 10:04:31,120
longer hypothetical. It's happening
11876
10:04:28,960 --> 10:04:34,960
transaction by transaction across the
11877
10:04:31,120 --> 10:04:36,800
globe. But it's not all smooth sailing.
11878
10:04:34,960 --> 10:04:39,200
Crypto's value can be volatile.
11879
10:04:36,800 --> 10:04:41,680
Regulations vary by country, and tax
11880
10:04:39,200 --> 10:04:44,000
implications can be tricky. First,
11881
10:04:41,680 --> 10:04:46,160
volatility. Bitcoin and other
11882
10:04:44,000 --> 10:04:47,916
cryptocurrencies can move dramatically,
11883
10:04:46,160 --> 10:04:49,840
sometimes losing or gaining a third of
11884
10:04:47,916 --> 10:04:52,160
their value in weeks. for buyers who
11885
10:04:49,840 --> 10:04:55,520
convert at closing. Rapid swings can
11886
10:04:52,160 --> 10:04:58,720
erase gains or spike costs in hours.
11887
10:04:55,520 --> 10:05:00,800
Second, transaction mechanics and title.
11888
10:04:58,720 --> 10:05:02,800
Even when a seller accepts crypto, most
11889
10:05:00,800 --> 10:05:04,320
governments and land registries require
11890
10:05:02,800 --> 10:05:06,640
deeds to be issued in the local
11891
10:05:04,320 --> 10:05:08,880
currency. That usually means an
11892
10:05:06,640 --> 10:05:10,800
intermediary converts crypto to fiat
11893
10:05:08,880 --> 10:05:12,960
before the legal title is registered,
11894
10:05:10,800 --> 10:05:14,720
adding counterparty risk and an extra
11895
10:05:12,960 --> 10:05:17,596
step that can delay and complicate
11896
10:05:14,720 --> 10:05:19,276
settlements. Third, taxes. In many
11897
10:05:17,596 --> 10:05:21,436
jurisdictions, authorities treat crypto
11898
10:05:19,276 --> 10:05:23,276
as property, not currency, which makes
11899
10:05:21,436 --> 10:05:25,680
nearly every transfer a taxable event.
11900
10:05:23,276 --> 10:05:27,756
That includes sales, exchanges, and
11901
10:05:25,680 --> 10:05:30,000
sometimes even payments for goods or
11902
10:05:27,756 --> 10:05:32,240
services. Buyers and sellers must track
11903
10:05:30,000 --> 10:05:34,400
cost basis, gains, and report the
11904
10:05:32,240 --> 10:05:36,960
transactions accurately or face audits
11905
10:05:34,400 --> 10:05:38,880
and penalties. Fourth, lending and
11906
10:05:36,960 --> 10:05:40,480
counterparty risk. Cryptoback lending
11907
10:05:38,880 --> 10:05:42,320
exploded in the previous market cycle,
11908
10:05:40,480 --> 10:05:44,400
but it ended with high-profile collapses
11909
10:05:42,320 --> 10:05:46,320
and bankruptcies. When platforms fail,
11910
10:05:44,400 --> 10:05:48,240
borrowers and depositors can lose access
11911
10:05:46,320 --> 10:05:49,840
to funds. Collateral can be liquidated
11912
10:05:48,240 --> 10:05:51,680
at a loss and promise liquidity
11913
10:05:49,840 --> 10:05:53,596
disappears, a danger for anyone relying
11914
10:05:51,680 --> 10:05:55,756
on thirdparty services to bridge crypto
11915
10:05:53,596 --> 10:05:57,040
and property purchases.
11916
10:05:55,756 --> 10:05:59,596
Fifth, compliance and
11917
10:05:57,040 --> 10:06:01,276
anti-moneyaundering rules. Regulators
11918
10:05:59,596 --> 10:06:03,120
and global bodies have tightened rules
11919
10:06:01,276 --> 10:06:05,360
around virtual assets to prevent illicit
11920
10:06:03,120 --> 10:06:07,756
flows. Real estate transactions are high
11921
10:06:05,360 --> 10:06:09,436
on that list, meaning additional KYC,
11922
10:06:07,756 --> 10:06:11,596
source of fund checks, and reporting
11923
10:06:09,436 --> 10:06:13,436
requirements. Failure to meet these
11924
10:06:11,596 --> 10:06:15,756
standards can stall a sale, trigger
11925
10:06:13,436 --> 10:06:18,880
investigations, or expose participants
11926
10:06:15,756 --> 10:06:21,200
to legal liability. Sixth, operational
11927
10:06:18,880 --> 10:06:22,960
and technical risk. Crypto transactions
11928
10:06:21,200 --> 10:06:24,560
are irreversible. A single wrong
11929
10:06:22,960 --> 10:06:26,160
character in a wallet address or a
11930
10:06:24,560 --> 10:06:27,916
fishing attack on an email with wiring
11931
10:06:26,160 --> 10:06:29,360
instructions can send millions to the
11932
10:06:27,916 --> 10:06:31,200
wrong place, and there's no bank to
11933
10:06:29,360 --> 10:06:33,120
reverse the transfer. Seventh,
11934
10:06:31,200 --> 10:06:35,120
technology risk, smart contracts,
11935
10:06:33,120 --> 10:06:37,040
tokenization, and new platforms bring
11936
10:06:35,120 --> 10:06:38,720
innovation, but also software bugs and
11937
10:06:37,040 --> 10:06:40,880
design flaws. A poorly written smart
11938
10:06:38,720 --> 10:06:43,200
contract or an unodudited tokenization
11939
10:06:40,880 --> 10:06:46,000
platform can freeze assets, misallocate
11940
10:06:43,200 --> 10:06:48,560
ownership shares or enable exports.
11941
10:06:46,000 --> 10:06:50,240
Finally, market and reputational risk.
11942
10:06:48,560 --> 10:06:51,916
Developers and brokers who accept crypto
11943
10:06:50,240 --> 10:06:53,756
can attract new buyers, but they also
11944
10:06:51,916 --> 10:06:55,520
take on greater scrutiny, regulatory
11945
10:06:53,756 --> 10:06:57,276
compliance burdens, and the risk that
11946
10:06:55,520 --> 10:06:59,520
projects promoted with crypto funding
11947
10:06:57,276 --> 10:07:02,640
may underdel, stall, or become entangled
11948
10:06:59,520 --> 10:07:04,960
in legal disputes. In short, crypto can
11949
10:07:02,640 --> 10:07:07,520
speed and globalize property deals, but
11950
10:07:04,960 --> 10:07:10,160
it also layers on volatility, regulatory
11951
10:07:07,520 --> 10:07:12,240
complexity, and new failure modes. For
11952
10:07:10,160 --> 10:07:14,560
buyers, sellers, and advisers, the
11953
10:07:12,240 --> 10:07:16,400
lesson is clear. Proceed with rigorous
11954
10:07:14,560 --> 10:07:18,960
legal counsel, hardened custody
11955
10:07:16,400 --> 10:07:20,960
practices, and transparent compliance.
11956
10:07:18,960 --> 10:07:23,960
The opportunity is real, but so are the
11957
10:07:20,960 --> 10:07:23,960
pitfalls.
11958
10:07:42,560 --> 10:07:47,680
Still, the opportunities are huge. A new
11959
10:07:45,520 --> 10:07:50,000
generation of buyers is turning digital
11960
10:07:47,680 --> 10:07:52,960
value into physical assets. For many,
11961
10:07:50,000 --> 10:07:55,276
Bitcoin isn't just a currency. It's a
11962
10:07:52,960 --> 10:07:56,560
gateway to ownership.
11963
10:07:55,276 --> 10:07:58,800
One of the biggest shifts is
11964
10:07:56,560 --> 10:08:00,960
tokenization. Instead of buying an
11965
10:07:58,800 --> 10:08:02,880
entire building, investors can now
11966
10:08:00,960 --> 10:08:05,436
purchase fractional ownership through
11967
10:08:02,880 --> 10:08:07,120
blockchainbased tokens. This lowers the
11968
10:08:05,436 --> 10:08:09,120
barrier to entry, allowing smaller
11969
10:08:07,120 --> 10:08:10,960
investors to access real estate markets
11970
10:08:09,120 --> 10:08:14,596
that were once reserved for institutions
11971
10:08:10,960 --> 10:08:14,596
and the ultra wealthy.
11972
10:08:31,200 --> 10:08:33,360
Fraction.
11973
10:08:59,200 --> 10:09:04,080
Tokenization also brings liquidity to an
11974
10:09:02,080 --> 10:09:06,480
industry that has traditionally been
11975
10:09:04,080 --> 10:09:08,880
slow and illquid. Real estate
11976
10:09:06,480 --> 10:09:11,040
transactions can take months. Tokenized
11977
10:09:08,880 --> 10:09:13,756
shares can potentially be transferred in
11978
10:09:11,040 --> 10:09:16,000
minutes. Crypto is also reshaping
11979
10:09:13,756 --> 10:09:18,160
crossber real estate. International
11980
10:09:16,000 --> 10:09:20,960
buyers often face currency controls,
11981
10:09:18,160 --> 10:09:22,960
wire delays, and banking restrictions.
11982
10:09:20,960 --> 10:09:24,880
Cryptocurrency allows capital to move
11983
10:09:22,960 --> 10:09:26,640
globally with fewer friction points,
11984
10:09:24,880 --> 10:09:28,720
opening markets to buyers who were
11985
10:09:26,640 --> 10:09:30,400
previously locked out. As a result,
11986
10:09:28,720 --> 10:09:32,000
cities that embrace crypto-friendly
11987
10:09:30,400 --> 10:09:33,756
regulations are attracting global
11988
10:09:32,000 --> 10:09:35,276
capital faster. Developers are
11989
10:09:33,756 --> 10:09:37,120
responding by marketing properties
11990
10:09:35,276 --> 10:09:39,680
directly to crypto holders, not as a
11991
10:09:37,120 --> 10:09:41,596
novelty, but as a strategy. Governments
11992
10:09:39,680 --> 10:09:43,520
are also exploring blockchain for land
11993
10:09:41,596 --> 10:09:45,596
registries and property records.
11994
10:09:43,520 --> 10:09:47,520
Immutable ledgers can reduce disputes,
11995
10:09:45,596 --> 10:09:49,916
prevent title fraud, and provide
11996
10:09:47,520 --> 10:09:51,436
permanent verifiable ownership history,
11997
10:09:49,916 --> 10:09:53,680
especially in regions where property
11998
10:09:51,436 --> 10:09:55,520
rights are difficult to enforce. This
11999
10:09:53,680 --> 10:09:57,436
isn't a complete replacement of
12000
10:09:55,520 --> 10:09:59,840
traditional real estate. It's a
12001
10:09:57,436 --> 10:10:02,240
transformation. Crypto doesn't eliminate
12002
10:09:59,840 --> 10:10:04,000
the fundamentals. Location, demand, and
12003
10:10:02,240 --> 10:10:05,840
due diligence still matter. But it
12004
10:10:04,000 --> 10:10:08,000
changes how value moves, how quickly
12005
10:10:05,840 --> 10:10:10,000
deals happen, and who gets access. So,
12006
10:10:08,000 --> 10:10:12,160
what does all of this mean for you as an
12007
10:10:10,000 --> 10:10:13,840
investor or future home buyer? It means
12008
10:10:12,160 --> 10:10:15,840
new opportunities are emerging.
12009
10:10:13,840 --> 10:10:18,080
Opportunities to leverage your crypto
12010
10:10:15,840 --> 10:10:20,720
holdings, opportunities to participate
12011
10:10:18,080 --> 10:10:23,120
in international markets more easily,
12012
10:10:20,720 --> 10:10:26,680
opportunities to acquire property faster
12013
10:10:23,120 --> 10:10:26,680
and more efficiently.
12014
10:10:32,080 --> 10:10:35,240
real estate.
12015
10:10:40,560 --> 10:10:43,560
Constessure
12016
10:11:03,916 --> 10:11:06,320
consequenc
12017
10:11:16,800 --> 10:11:20,040
Real estate
12018
10:11:25,756 --> 10:11:28,756
system.
12019
10:11:31,680 --> 10:11:34,680
Contractors
12020
10:11:56,880 --> 10:12:00,120
real estate.
12021
10:12:06,160 --> 10:12:11,436
But like any emerging space, education
12022
10:12:09,120 --> 10:12:14,000
is key. Working with crypto-friendly
12023
10:12:11,436 --> 10:12:16,080
agents, attorneys, and escrow companies
12024
10:12:14,000 --> 10:12:18,160
is essential.
12025
10:12:16,080 --> 10:12:19,840
Understanding your local regulations is
12026
10:12:18,160 --> 10:12:21,596
crucial, and ensuring the security of
12027
10:12:19,840 --> 10:12:24,596
your crypto wallet is absolutely
12028
10:12:21,596 --> 10:12:24,596
non-negotiable.
12029
10:12:28,560 --> 10:12:31,560
for
12030
10:12:36,240 --> 10:12:38,560
sophistic.
12031
10:12:44,880 --> 10:12:48,120
Finan. for
12032
10:13:11,916 --> 10:13:16,560
companion
12033
10:13:14,480 --> 10:13:16,560
moment.
12034
10:13:17,360 --> 10:13:20,360
Tomando
12035
10:13:37,520 --> 10:13:40,756
Fundament. Absolute
12036
10:13:51,596 --> 10:13:54,596
maximas.
12037
10:14:28,480 --> 10:14:32,880
The cryptocurrency market has entered
12038
10:14:30,400 --> 10:14:36,160
the opening days of 2026 with renewed
12039
10:14:32,880 --> 10:14:38,400
momentum. After a volatile end to 2025,
12040
10:14:36,160 --> 10:14:40,080
prices across major digital assets have
12041
10:14:38,400 --> 10:14:41,680
moved sharply higher, drawing attention
12042
10:14:40,080 --> 10:14:44,000
from both retail traders and
12043
10:14:41,680 --> 10:14:46,240
institutional investors. In early
12044
10:14:44,000 --> 10:14:48,640
January, the total cryptocurrency market
12045
10:14:46,240 --> 10:14:51,040
capitalization climbed to around $3.2
12046
10:14:48,640 --> 10:14:53,040
trillion, according to aggregated data
12047
10:14:51,040 --> 10:14:54,720
from major market trackers. This
12048
10:14:53,040 --> 10:14:57,360
represents a meaningful rebound from
12049
10:14:54,720 --> 10:14:59,040
late 2025 levels, with the market adding
12050
10:14:57,360 --> 10:15:00,960
hundreds of billions of dollars in value
12051
10:14:59,040 --> 10:15:02,880
over a relatively short period. While
12052
10:15:00,960 --> 10:15:04,400
exact figures vary, the direction is
12053
10:15:02,880 --> 10:15:06,000
clear. Capital has returned to the
12054
10:15:04,400 --> 10:15:07,840
crypto market at the start of the year.
12055
10:15:06,000 --> 10:15:10,320
At the center of this move is Bitcoin,
12056
10:15:07,840 --> 10:15:12,640
which rallied toward the $93,000 level
12057
10:15:10,320 --> 10:15:14,640
in the first week of January. As the
12058
10:15:12,640 --> 10:15:16,880
largest and most influential digital
12059
10:15:14,640 --> 10:15:18,480
asset, Bitcoin continues to act as the
12060
10:15:16,880 --> 10:15:19,840
market's primary anchor, and its
12061
10:15:18,480 --> 10:15:22,000
strength has helped lift sentiment
12062
10:15:19,840 --> 10:15:24,320
across the broader ecosystem.
12063
10:15:22,000 --> 10:15:26,720
Historically, strong Bitcoin performance
12064
10:15:24,320 --> 10:15:28,080
has often preceded periods of increased
12065
10:15:26,720 --> 10:15:30,960
activity in alternative
12066
10:15:28,080 --> 10:15:32,880
cryptocurrencies, and early 2026 appears
12067
10:15:30,960 --> 10:15:34,560
to be following a similar pattern.
12068
10:15:32,880 --> 10:15:36,160
Another key factor has been renewed
12069
10:15:34,560 --> 10:15:37,840
institutional participation,
12070
10:15:36,160 --> 10:15:40,480
particularly through spot Bitcoin and
12071
10:15:37,840 --> 10:15:42,880
Ethereum exchange traded funds. Reports
12072
10:15:40,480 --> 10:15:44,560
from early January indicate notable ETF
12073
10:15:42,880 --> 10:15:46,400
inflows, suggesting that traditional
12074
10:15:44,560 --> 10:15:48,480
investors are once again increasing
12075
10:15:46,400 --> 10:15:50,160
exposure to digital assets. The current
12076
10:15:48,480 --> 10:15:52,080
momentum appears to be driven by a
12077
10:15:50,160 --> 10:15:55,040
combination of factors, including
12078
10:15:52,080 --> 10:15:57,840
Bitcoin's price recovery, increased ETF
12079
10:15:55,040 --> 10:15:59,360
inflows, improved global risk sentiment,
12080
10:15:57,840 --> 10:16:01,756
expectations of more supportive
12081
10:15:59,360 --> 10:16:04,240
regulatory and macroeconomic conditions.
12082
10:16:01,756 --> 10:16:06,080
As 2026 begins, the cryptocurrency
12083
10:16:04,240 --> 10:16:08,240
market finds itself at a familiar
12084
10:16:06,080 --> 10:16:09,916
crossroads. Renewed optimism balanced
12085
10:16:08,240 --> 10:16:11,520
against persistent uncertainty. Whether
12086
10:16:09,916 --> 10:16:13,436
this earlier strength marks the
12087
10:16:11,520 --> 10:16:15,040
beginning of a sustained trend or simply
12088
10:16:13,436 --> 10:16:17,040
another chapter in crypto's cyclical
12089
10:16:15,040 --> 10:16:20,160
nature is a question that only time will
12090
10:16:17,040 --> 10:16:22,880
answer. For now, the message from the
12091
10:16:20,160 --> 10:16:24,880
market is clear. Crypto is once again
12092
10:16:22,880 --> 10:16:26,560
commanding attention. If you approach
12093
10:16:24,880 --> 10:16:28,640
crypto real estate with knowledge and
12094
10:16:26,560 --> 10:16:31,436
preparation, the rewards can be
12095
10:16:28,640 --> 10:16:34,320
extraordinary. Bitcoin the bricks isn't
12096
10:16:31,436 --> 10:16:36,640
just a catchy phrase. It's the future of
12097
10:16:34,320 --> 10:16:38,960
real estate investment. If you want to
12098
10:16:36,640 --> 10:16:41,520
stay ahead of the curve, now's the time
12099
10:16:38,960 --> 10:16:44,520
to learn how crypto can open doors.
12100
10:16:41,520 --> 10:16:44,520
Literally.
12101
10:16:55,120 --> 10:16:58,120
Explorer
12102
10:17:07,756 --> 10:17:10,160
Transparenc.
12103
10:17:14,720 --> 10:17:17,720
control.
12104
10:17:41,436 --> 10:17:45,276
From digital coins to physical assets,
12105
10:17:43,596 --> 10:17:47,360
from online wallets to real world
12106
10:17:45,276 --> 10:17:49,436
property lines, cryptocurrency is
12107
10:17:47,360 --> 10:17:52,000
reshaping how we buy, sell, and think
12108
10:17:49,436 --> 10:17:54,240
about real estate. We are witnessing the
12109
10:17:52,000 --> 10:17:56,000
merging of two worlds. The oldest asset
12110
10:17:54,240 --> 10:17:58,240
on earth and one of the newest
12111
10:17:56,000 --> 10:18:01,040
technological inventions of our time.
12112
10:17:58,240 --> 10:18:03,520
And as the future unfolds, only one
12113
10:18:01,040 --> 10:18:06,840
question remain. Will Bitcoin buy your
12114
10:18:03,520 --> 10:18:06,840
next home?
12115
10:19:29,916 --> 10:19:35,360
September 2008.
12116
10:19:32,880 --> 10:19:38,000
The global financial system is on the
12117
10:19:35,360 --> 10:19:40,960
verge of a total blackout. Layman
12118
10:19:38,000 --> 10:19:44,720
Brothers has vanished. Meil Lynch is
12119
10:19:40,960 --> 10:19:46,800
gone. AIG is hemorrhaging billions every
12120
10:19:44,720 --> 10:19:49,040
hour.
12121
10:19:46,800 --> 10:19:50,960
In Washington, the halls of the Treasury
12122
10:19:49,040 --> 10:19:54,320
are filled with the smartest minds in
12123
10:19:50,960 --> 10:19:57,200
the country. But they have a problem.
12124
10:19:54,320 --> 10:20:00,160
They are staring at a black box of toxic
12125
10:19:57,200 --> 10:20:03,120
debt worth trillions and no tools to
12126
10:20:00,160 --> 10:20:06,240
open it. There is only one person who
12127
10:20:03,120 --> 10:20:08,640
has the map. One person who spent the
12128
10:20:06,240 --> 10:20:10,960
last 20 years building a digital
12129
10:20:08,640 --> 10:20:13,680
unblinking eye that can see through the
12130
10:20:10,960 --> 10:20:16,160
wreckage. The government didn't call the
12131
10:20:13,680 --> 10:20:18,880
big banks to save the world. They needed
12132
10:20:16,160 --> 10:20:20,720
someone to handle the toxic waste. And
12133
10:20:18,880 --> 10:20:24,240
there was only one man that could lead
12134
10:20:20,720 --> 10:20:27,240
through that darkness. They called Larry
12135
10:20:24,240 --> 10:20:27,240
Frink.
12136
10:20:28,720 --> 10:20:34,360
Larry Frink, the man behind Black Rock.
12137
10:20:35,120 --> 10:20:41,596
Today, he manages more money than the
12138
10:20:37,200 --> 10:20:43,840
GDP of almost every nation on Earth, $14
12139
10:20:41,596 --> 10:20:45,840
trillion.
12140
10:20:43,840 --> 10:20:48,160
But before he was the shadow sovereign
12141
10:20:45,840 --> 10:20:49,840
of Wall Street, he was a man who lost
12142
10:20:48,160 --> 10:20:53,916
everything.
12143
10:20:49,840 --> 10:20:56,000
Who is Larry Frink? Lawrence D.Fin, also
12144
10:20:53,916 --> 10:20:58,720
known as Larry Frink, is one of the
12145
10:20:56,000 --> 10:21:02,080
co-founders of Black Rockck. He is also
12146
10:20:58,720 --> 10:21:04,080
the chairman and CEO of the company, the
12147
10:21:02,080 --> 10:21:07,276
largest money management firm in the
12148
10:21:04,080 --> 10:21:09,040
world. It's the first time in history a
12149
10:21:07,276 --> 10:21:11,680
company manages to reach such a
12150
10:21:09,040 --> 10:21:14,720
milestone and gives a clear picture of
12151
10:21:11,680 --> 10:21:17,360
how Black Rockck operates. Not just a
12152
10:21:14,720 --> 10:21:19,680
traditional investment bank, but as a
12153
10:21:17,360 --> 10:21:22,400
central pillar of the global financial
12154
10:21:19,680 --> 10:21:24,640
infrastructure, where its sheer scale
12155
10:21:22,400 --> 10:21:26,480
allows it to influence economies and
12156
10:21:24,640 --> 10:21:30,800
industries at a level previously
12157
10:21:26,480 --> 10:21:33,756
reserved only for nation states.
12158
10:21:30,800 --> 10:21:36,640
Founded in 1988 as an investment firm
12159
10:21:33,756 --> 10:21:40,800
that prioritized risk management with
12160
10:21:36,640 --> 10:21:44,080
11.5 to 14 trillion under management,
12161
10:21:40,800 --> 10:21:46,320
Black Rockck's influence is staggering.
12162
10:21:44,080 --> 10:21:50,400
Black Rockck is a top three shareholder
12163
10:21:46,320 --> 10:21:53,596
in nearly every company in the S&P 500
12164
10:21:50,400 --> 10:21:56,480
from Apple to Exxon, from Microsoft to
12165
10:21:53,596 --> 10:22:00,240
Nestle. They don't just invest in the
12166
10:21:56,480 --> 10:22:03,120
market, they are the market.
12167
10:22:00,240 --> 10:22:05,756
But its reach is personal. It holds the
12168
10:22:03,120 --> 10:22:08,880
retirement dreams of over 35 million
12169
10:22:05,756 --> 10:22:11,436
Americans. This is the story of how a
12170
10:22:08,880 --> 10:22:15,040
kid from a California shoe store became
12171
10:22:11,436 --> 10:22:18,560
the custodian of the world's wealth. But
12172
10:22:15,040 --> 10:22:21,120
who is Larry Frink? Lawrence Douglas
12173
10:22:18,560 --> 10:22:23,596
Frink entered the world on November the
12174
10:22:21,120 --> 10:22:26,320
2nd, 1952.
12175
10:22:23,596 --> 10:22:28,320
Born in Los Angeles, California, he was
12176
10:22:26,320 --> 10:22:30,320
raised in a Jewish family in the heart
12177
10:22:28,320 --> 10:22:34,880
of San Fernando Valley, the
12178
10:22:30,320 --> 10:22:37,040
quintessential American suburb of Vanoi.
12179
10:22:34,880 --> 10:22:39,916
His home was a balance of academic
12180
10:22:37,040 --> 10:22:42,080
discipline and retail grit. His mother,
12181
10:22:39,916 --> 10:22:43,916
Leela, was an English professor who
12182
10:22:42,080 --> 10:22:45,436
valued the power of language and
12183
10:22:43,916 --> 10:22:47,436
education.
12184
10:22:45,436 --> 10:22:49,756
And long before he pulled the strings of
12185
10:22:47,436 --> 10:22:51,840
the global economy, Larry Frink was
12186
10:22:49,756 --> 10:22:53,436
learning the value of money on a much
12187
10:22:51,840 --> 10:22:56,400
smaller scale.
12188
10:22:53,436 --> 10:22:58,480
his father's shoe store in Vanoise where
12189
10:22:56,400 --> 10:23:01,840
he spent evenings helping and learning
12190
10:22:58,480 --> 10:23:04,080
the business. As one of three children,
12191
10:23:01,840 --> 10:23:06,560
Larry grew up in a household where hard
12192
10:23:04,080 --> 10:23:08,080
work wasn't just encouraged, it was the
12193
10:23:06,560 --> 10:23:10,080
baseline.
12194
10:23:08,080 --> 10:23:12,160
While he often joked he wasn't the
12195
10:23:10,080 --> 10:23:14,320
smartest in the room, it was this
12196
10:23:12,160 --> 10:23:17,040
specific combination of his mother's
12197
10:23:14,320 --> 10:23:19,120
intellectual curiosity and his father's
12198
10:23:17,040 --> 10:23:21,680
mainstream business sense that would
12199
10:23:19,120 --> 10:23:24,800
eventually form the DNA of a global
12200
10:23:21,680 --> 10:23:26,720
financial giant. While the future titans
12201
10:23:24,800 --> 10:23:29,120
of Wall Street were rubbing elbows in
12202
10:23:26,720 --> 10:23:33,360
the marble halls of Harvard or Yale,
12203
10:23:29,120 --> 10:23:36,640
Think was a brewin. In 1970, Larry
12204
10:23:33,360 --> 10:23:39,200
arrived at UCLA. For a young man from
12205
10:23:36,640 --> 10:23:42,880
Vanoise, this wasn't just a local
12206
10:23:39,200 --> 10:23:45,040
university. It was a world of ideas.
12207
10:23:42,880 --> 10:23:47,520
But it was in his final years that the
12208
10:23:45,040 --> 10:23:50,000
trajectory of his life shifted. He
12209
10:23:47,520 --> 10:23:51,840
immersed himself in political science,
12210
10:23:50,000 --> 10:23:54,720
learning how power moves through
12211
10:23:51,840 --> 10:23:56,800
nations. But he soon realized that in
12212
10:23:54,720 --> 10:23:59,436
the modern world, power follows the
12213
10:23:56,800 --> 10:24:01,436
money. This led him to the Anderson
12214
10:23:59,436 --> 10:24:04,320
School of Management specializing in
12215
10:24:01,436 --> 10:24:06,080
real estate. It was here that he began
12216
10:24:04,320 --> 10:24:08,960
to see the world through the lens of
12217
10:24:06,080 --> 10:24:10,880
assets and yields.
12218
10:24:08,960 --> 10:24:13,276
This public education gave him a
12219
10:24:10,880 --> 10:24:15,200
different edge. While his peers at
12220
10:24:13,276 --> 10:24:17,436
private East Coast schools were being
12221
10:24:15,200 --> 10:24:20,160
groomed for traditional corporate roles,
12222
10:24:17,436 --> 10:24:22,080
Larry was developing the outsider's eye,
12223
10:24:20,160 --> 10:24:24,400
a perspective that allowed him to see
12224
10:24:22,080 --> 10:24:28,560
opportunities in the messy, unpolished
12225
10:24:24,400 --> 10:24:28,560
corners of the bond market.
12226
10:24:29,120 --> 10:24:34,880
He graduated in 1976, not with a silver
12227
10:24:32,800 --> 10:24:36,800
spoon, but with a California bred
12228
10:24:34,880 --> 10:24:38,480
ambition to take on the giants of
12229
10:24:36,800 --> 10:24:41,120
Manhattan.
12230
10:24:38,480 --> 10:24:43,596
He was a brewin headed for Wall Street,
12231
10:24:41,120 --> 10:24:46,756
and the financial world had no idea what
12232
10:24:43,596 --> 10:24:46,756
was coming.
12233
10:24:48,960 --> 10:24:53,520
The year is 1976.
12234
10:24:51,596 --> 10:24:55,680
New York City is a grit cover
12235
10:24:53,520 --> 10:24:58,400
battlefield and Larry Frink has just
12236
10:24:55,680 --> 10:25:00,640
been handed the keys to the kingdom.
12237
10:24:58,400 --> 10:25:02,960
Goldman Sachs, the most prestigious name
12238
10:25:00,640 --> 10:25:06,240
in finance back then, has practically
12239
10:25:02,960 --> 10:25:09,276
hired him. He had passed the technical
12240
10:25:06,240 --> 10:25:11,040
tests. He had charmed the partners. All
12241
10:25:09,276 --> 10:25:13,596
that remained was a rubber stamp
12242
10:25:11,040 --> 10:25:16,960
interview with human resources.
12243
10:25:13,596 --> 10:25:19,680
But Larry, Larry wasn't just confident,
12244
10:25:16,960 --> 10:25:21,520
he was impatient. When the recruiter
12245
10:25:19,680 --> 10:25:23,916
asked for his thoughts on the firm,
12246
10:25:21,520 --> 10:25:26,560
Larry didn't give a thank you. He gave a
12247
10:25:23,916 --> 10:25:29,120
consultation. He pointed out the flaws
12248
10:25:26,560 --> 10:25:32,240
in their system. At Goldman, they wanted
12249
10:25:29,120 --> 10:25:35,480
a soldier. Larry was already acting like
12250
10:25:32,240 --> 10:25:35,480
a general.
12251
10:25:37,040 --> 10:25:42,400
In that room, the rigid Goldman way
12252
10:25:39,360 --> 10:25:44,480
clashed with the unfiltered Frink way.
12253
10:25:42,400 --> 10:25:47,916
Before he could even hail a camp back to
12254
10:25:44,480 --> 10:25:50,160
his hotel, the offer was dead. The most
12255
10:25:47,916 --> 10:25:52,560
coveted job in Wall Street history had
12256
10:25:50,160 --> 10:25:54,400
vanished. All because Larry Frink
12257
10:25:52,560 --> 10:25:57,756
couldn't stop himself from trying to fix
12258
10:25:54,400 --> 10:26:00,800
a system he hadn't even joined yet. It
12259
10:25:57,756 --> 10:26:03,276
was a crushing blow. But in the shadow
12260
10:26:00,800 --> 10:26:05,520
of that rejection, a door opened at a
12261
10:26:03,276 --> 10:26:08,000
scrappy second tier firm called First
12262
10:26:05,520 --> 10:26:11,360
Boston. It was a place with less
12263
10:26:08,000 --> 10:26:13,680
prestige but more white space. At
12264
10:26:11,360 --> 10:26:16,720
Goldman, he would have been a cog in a
12265
10:26:13,680 --> 10:26:19,596
perfect machine. At First Boston, he was
12266
10:26:16,720 --> 10:26:21,596
the architect. He was given a desk, a
12267
10:26:19,596 --> 10:26:23,916
telephone, and the freedom to build
12268
10:26:21,596 --> 10:26:26,800
something entirely new, the
12269
10:26:23,916 --> 10:26:29,436
mortgagebacked security. He didn't know
12270
10:26:26,800 --> 10:26:32,160
it yet, but that recruiters know was the
12271
10:26:29,436 --> 10:26:37,160
foundation upon which the 14 trillion
12272
10:26:32,160 --> 10:26:37,160
empire of Black Rock would be built.
12273
10:26:42,080 --> 10:26:48,400
It's 1976 when Larry Frink arrives at
12274
10:26:45,360 --> 10:26:50,400
First Boston. At the time, the firm was
12275
10:26:48,400 --> 10:26:53,120
the scrappy underdog of investment
12276
10:26:50,400 --> 10:26:56,720
banking. It wasn't as stiff as Morgan
12277
10:26:53,120 --> 10:26:58,880
Stanley or as elitist as Goldman. It was
12278
10:26:56,720 --> 10:27:02,000
the perfect laboratory for a man who
12279
10:26:58,880 --> 10:27:05,040
didn't fit the mold. Larry was assigned
12280
10:27:02,000 --> 10:27:07,040
to the bond department. Back then, bonds
12281
10:27:05,040 --> 10:27:08,320
were considered the boring corner of
12282
10:27:07,040 --> 10:27:11,200
finance.
12283
10:27:08,320 --> 10:27:14,240
It was where you went to retire. Stocks
12284
10:27:11,200 --> 10:27:17,200
were sexy. Bonds were for grandmothers.
12285
10:27:14,240 --> 10:27:18,720
But Larry saw something everyone else
12286
10:27:17,200 --> 10:27:20,960
missed.
12287
10:27:18,720 --> 10:27:23,680
He looked at the American dream, the
12288
10:27:20,960 --> 10:27:26,640
suburban house, the white picket fence,
12289
10:27:23,680 --> 10:27:28,080
the 30-year mortgage, and he saw a math
12290
10:27:26,640 --> 10:27:30,080
problem.
12291
10:27:28,080 --> 10:27:32,480
He realized that if you took thousands
12292
10:27:30,080 --> 10:27:34,640
of individual home mortgages, bundled
12293
10:27:32,480 --> 10:27:37,360
them together like a deck of cards, and
12294
10:27:34,640 --> 10:27:40,400
sold slices of that deck to investors,
12295
10:27:37,360 --> 10:27:43,276
you created a money machine.
12296
10:27:40,400 --> 10:27:44,800
This was the birth of the securitization
12297
10:27:43,276 --> 10:27:47,200
market.
12298
10:27:44,800 --> 10:27:49,840
What Larry Frink helped create was more
12299
10:27:47,200 --> 10:27:53,400
than a financial product. It was a
12300
10:27:49,840 --> 10:27:53,400
structural shift.
12301
10:27:53,756 --> 10:27:58,720
Securitization didn't just bundle
12302
10:27:55,916 --> 10:28:00,240
mortgages. It separated risk from
12303
10:27:58,720 --> 10:28:02,480
reality.
12304
10:28:00,240 --> 10:28:04,480
For the first time, financial value
12305
10:28:02,480 --> 10:28:07,436
could travel faster than the underlying
12306
10:28:04,480 --> 10:28:09,360
economy that supported it. A house in
12307
10:28:07,436 --> 10:28:11,596
California became a line in a
12308
10:28:09,360 --> 10:28:15,200
spreadsheet in New York, which became a
12309
10:28:11,596 --> 10:28:17,200
yield sold to an investor in Tokyo. Risk
12310
10:28:15,200 --> 10:28:20,240
no longer lived where decisions were
12311
10:28:17,200 --> 10:28:22,560
made. It was abstracted, sliced,
12312
10:28:20,240 --> 10:28:25,360
repackaged, and distributed across the
12313
10:28:22,560 --> 10:28:27,596
system. This was the moment when finance
12314
10:28:25,360 --> 10:28:30,960
stopped reflecting the real economy and
12315
10:28:27,596 --> 10:28:33,276
began building a parallel one. A system
12316
10:28:30,960 --> 10:28:35,120
that could grow without limits as long
12317
10:28:33,276 --> 10:28:39,276
as everyone believed the models were
12318
10:28:35,120 --> 10:28:41,916
right. And for a while they were.
12319
10:28:39,276 --> 10:28:44,480
By the early 80s, Larry was the golden
12320
10:28:41,916 --> 10:28:46,960
boy. He wasn't just hitting targets, he
12321
10:28:44,480 --> 10:28:49,120
was shattering them. In one year, his
12322
10:28:46,960 --> 10:28:51,200
department was responsible for nearly
12323
10:28:49,120 --> 10:28:54,320
onethird of First Boston's total
12324
10:28:51,200 --> 10:28:56,560
profits. At age 31, he became the
12325
10:28:54,320 --> 10:28:59,596
youngest managing director the firm had
12326
10:28:56,560 --> 10:29:02,080
ever seen. He was earning millions. He
12327
10:28:59,596 --> 10:29:04,880
was the successor, the prodigy, the man
12328
10:29:02,080 --> 10:29:07,596
who could do no wrong. He had moved to
12329
10:29:04,880 --> 10:29:10,000
his family to a sprawling estate. He was
12330
10:29:07,596 --> 10:29:14,596
flying private. He had conquered the
12331
10:29:10,000 --> 10:29:14,596
grit cover battlefield of Manhattan.
12332
10:29:15,120 --> 10:29:19,520
But in the world of high finance, the
12333
10:29:17,276 --> 10:29:22,520
higher you fly, the thinner the air
12334
10:29:19,520 --> 10:29:22,520
becomes.
12335
10:29:24,080 --> 10:29:28,320
Larry was making hundreds of millions
12336
10:29:26,000 --> 10:29:31,200
for the bank, but there was a ghost in
12337
10:29:28,320 --> 10:29:35,040
the machine, a variable he hadn't
12338
10:29:31,200 --> 10:29:37,360
accounted for. The year was 1986.
12339
10:29:35,040 --> 10:29:40,160
Larry had made a massive bet on interest
12340
10:29:37,360 --> 10:29:43,680
rates. He believed they would stay
12341
10:29:40,160 --> 10:29:45,756
stable. He was so sure of his math, so
12342
10:29:43,680 --> 10:29:47,680
confident in his track record that he
12343
10:29:45,756 --> 10:29:50,000
didn't realize the ground was shifting
12344
10:29:47,680 --> 10:29:52,000
beneath his feet.
12345
10:29:50,000 --> 10:29:54,240
In just 3 months, the Golden Boys
12346
10:29:52,000 --> 10:29:58,080
department went from profit to a
12347
10:29:54,240 --> 10:30:01,200
catastrophic $100 million loss. In the
12348
10:29:58,080 --> 10:30:04,080
80s, 100 million wasn't just a loss. It
12349
10:30:01,200 --> 10:30:06,080
was a national scandal. Overnight, the
12350
10:30:04,080 --> 10:30:09,040
man who was supposed to run the bank was
12351
10:30:06,080 --> 10:30:10,960
a pariah. The phones stopped ringing.
12352
10:30:09,040 --> 10:30:13,596
The friends on the trading floor looked
12353
10:30:10,960 --> 10:30:15,840
away when he walked by. He had been the
12354
10:30:13,596 --> 10:30:18,640
smartest man in the room until he
12355
10:30:15,840 --> 10:30:20,880
wasn't. He would later describe this
12356
10:30:18,640 --> 10:30:24,080
moment as the most painful experience of
12357
10:30:20,880 --> 10:30:26,720
my life. But as he sat in the ruins of
12358
10:30:24,080 --> 10:30:29,120
his reputation, Larry Frink wasn't just
12359
10:30:26,720 --> 10:30:31,200
mourning his career. He was obsessed
12360
10:30:29,120 --> 10:30:34,160
with one question.
12361
10:30:31,200 --> 10:30:36,720
How did I not see the risk?
12362
10:30:34,160 --> 10:30:39,120
That obsession, the fear of the unknown
12363
10:30:36,720 --> 10:30:42,756
variable, would become the cornerstone
12364
10:30:39,120 --> 10:30:42,756
of Black Rockck.
12365
10:30:45,840 --> 10:30:52,080
By 1983, Larry wasn't just selling
12366
10:30:48,640 --> 10:30:56,520
bonds, he was a pioneer of the CMO,
12367
10:30:52,080 --> 10:30:56,520
collateralized mortgage obligation.
12368
10:30:56,720 --> 10:31:01,596
Think of it like a waterfall. Larry took
12369
10:30:59,520 --> 10:31:04,560
thousands of mortgages and sliced them
12370
10:31:01,596 --> 10:31:07,680
into tranches. Some investors took the
12371
10:31:04,560 --> 10:31:10,880
top slice, low risk, low reward. Others
12372
10:31:07,680 --> 10:31:12,720
took the bottom, high risk, high yield.
12373
10:31:10,880 --> 10:31:16,480
It was a masterpiece of financial
12374
10:31:12,720 --> 10:31:19,200
engineering. It made the illquid liquid.
12375
10:31:16,480 --> 10:31:21,520
It made first Boston the center of the
12376
10:31:19,200 --> 10:31:23,680
universe.
12377
10:31:21,520 --> 10:31:26,640
But there was a flaw, a tiny
12378
10:31:23,680 --> 10:31:28,640
mathematical ghost in his models.
12379
10:31:26,640 --> 10:31:30,960
Larry's team had predicted that interest
12380
10:31:28,640 --> 10:31:33,360
rates would rise and they hedged their
12381
10:31:30,960 --> 10:31:36,400
bets accordingly. But in the second
12382
10:31:33,360 --> 10:31:38,880
quarter of 1986, rates did something the
12383
10:31:36,400 --> 10:31:40,480
models said was impossible. They
12384
10:31:38,880 --> 10:31:42,240
plummeted
12385
10:31:40,480 --> 10:31:44,560
because they didn't have a system to
12386
10:31:42,240 --> 10:31:47,360
track their real-time exposure. Larry
12387
10:31:44,560 --> 10:31:50,400
was flying blind. He was the pilot of a
12388
10:31:47,360 --> 10:31:52,560
Boeing 747 trying to land in a storm
12389
10:31:50,400 --> 10:31:55,040
using nothing but a compass and a
12390
10:31:52,560 --> 10:31:57,040
prayer. By the time he realized the
12391
10:31:55,040 --> 10:32:01,120
engines were on fire, the plane had
12392
10:31:57,040 --> 10:32:04,520
already hit the mountain. $100 million.
12393
10:32:01,120 --> 10:32:04,520
All gone.
12394
10:32:06,640 --> 10:32:12,000
He wasn't just fired, he was erased.
12395
10:32:09,916 --> 10:32:15,040
After the dust settled, Larry found
12396
10:32:12,000 --> 10:32:18,000
himself in a peculiar kind of exile. He
12397
10:32:15,040 --> 10:32:20,800
wasn't just unemployed, he was haunted.
12398
10:32:18,000 --> 10:32:23,120
He realized that the $100 million loss
12399
10:32:20,800 --> 10:32:26,720
wasn't a failure of talent, it was a
12400
10:32:23,120 --> 10:32:29,436
failure of vision. What happened in 1986
12401
10:32:26,720 --> 10:32:32,480
wasn't a personal miscalculation.
12402
10:32:29,436 --> 10:32:34,800
It was a systemic blindness.
12403
10:32:32,480 --> 10:32:37,680
At the time, every major financial
12404
10:32:34,800 --> 10:32:40,640
institution operated the same way.
12405
10:32:37,680 --> 10:32:43,360
Positions were fragmented. Exposure was
12406
10:32:40,640 --> 10:32:46,480
estimated, not measured. Risk was
12407
10:32:43,360 --> 10:32:48,800
inferred after the fact. Banks knew what
12408
10:32:46,480 --> 10:32:51,840
they bought yesterday, but not what it
12409
10:32:48,800 --> 10:32:54,480
was worth right now. The system rewarded
12410
10:32:51,840 --> 10:32:56,960
speed, volume, and confidence, not
12411
10:32:54,480 --> 10:32:59,680
understanding. And as long as markets
12412
10:32:56,960 --> 10:33:02,080
moved slowly, the illusion held. But
12413
10:32:59,680 --> 10:33:05,040
once volatility entered the market, no
12414
10:33:02,080 --> 10:33:08,080
one truly knew where the danger was or
12415
10:33:05,040 --> 10:33:10,720
how large it had become. Larry didn't
12416
10:33:08,080 --> 10:33:12,720
just lose money. He realized the entire
12417
10:33:10,720 --> 10:33:15,680
financial system was flying without
12418
10:33:12,720 --> 10:33:18,720
instruments. Wall Street was essentially
12419
10:33:15,680 --> 10:33:22,720
a collection of blind giants. Every
12420
10:33:18,720 --> 10:33:24,720
major firm, Goldman, Layman, Meil Lynch,
12421
10:33:22,720 --> 10:33:29,200
was standing just one inch away from
12422
10:33:24,720 --> 10:33:31,120
total collapse at any given second. Why?
12423
10:33:29,200 --> 10:33:34,000
Because they didn't actually know what
12424
10:33:31,120 --> 10:33:36,800
they owned. This was information
12425
10:33:34,000 --> 10:33:39,200
blindness.
12426
10:33:36,800 --> 10:33:41,596
In the 1980s, you knew what you bought
12427
10:33:39,200 --> 10:33:44,800
yesterday, but you had no idea what it
12428
10:33:41,596 --> 10:33:47,436
was worth right now. A sudden shift in
12429
10:33:44,800 --> 10:33:49,756
interest rates or a political coup
12430
10:33:47,436 --> 10:33:51,520
across the ocean could vaporize a
12431
10:33:49,756 --> 10:33:54,400
billion dollars before the morning
12432
10:33:51,520 --> 10:33:57,756
coffee was poured.
12433
10:33:54,400 --> 10:34:00,400
Larry understood a terrifying truth. The
12434
10:33:57,756 --> 10:34:03,680
entire global financial system was built
12435
10:34:00,400 --> 10:34:05,520
on a foundation of guesswork.
12436
10:34:03,680 --> 10:34:07,040
It hit him with the force of an
12437
10:34:05,520 --> 10:34:09,360
epiphany.
12438
10:34:07,040 --> 10:34:11,436
If he could build a brain, a machine
12439
10:34:09,360 --> 10:34:13,840
that could see the risk that humans were
12440
10:34:11,436 --> 10:34:16,960
too slow to calculate, he wouldn't just
12441
10:34:13,840 --> 10:34:19,276
be a banker. He would be the only man in
12442
10:34:16,960 --> 10:34:22,400
the world with a flashlight in a dark
12443
10:34:19,276 --> 10:34:25,200
room. This realization changed his
12444
10:34:22,400 --> 10:34:27,120
entire philosophy of investing. He
12445
10:34:25,200 --> 10:34:29,916
stopped looking for the big score and
12446
10:34:27,120 --> 10:34:32,240
started looking for the safe passage. He
12447
10:34:29,916 --> 10:34:36,160
didn't want to beat the market anymore.
12448
10:34:32,240 --> 10:34:38,560
He wanted to measure it.
12449
10:34:36,160 --> 10:34:41,840
He would later tell his partners, "We
12450
10:34:38,560 --> 10:34:45,436
are never going to be blind again." That
12451
10:34:41,840 --> 10:34:47,596
vow born from the humiliation of 1986
12452
10:34:45,436 --> 10:34:50,960
became the blueprint for a new kind of
12453
10:34:47,596 --> 10:34:53,436
firm. A firm that didn't rely on the ego
12454
10:34:50,960 --> 10:34:57,720
of a star trader, but on the cold,
12455
10:34:53,436 --> 10:34:57,720
unblinking eye of technology.
12456
10:35:02,480 --> 10:35:08,480
Larry Frink was a man with a vision, but
12457
10:35:05,200 --> 10:35:10,400
he was also a man with a tainted resume.
12458
10:35:08,480 --> 10:35:13,120
To the rest of Wall Street, he was the
12459
10:35:10,400 --> 10:35:15,200
guy who lost a h 100red million. But to
12460
10:35:13,120 --> 10:35:17,840
a small circle of insiders at First
12461
10:35:15,200 --> 10:35:21,200
Boston, he was the only one who truly
12462
10:35:17,840 --> 10:35:24,000
understood why it happened. He began
12463
10:35:21,200 --> 10:35:26,640
making calls. He wasn't offering high
12464
10:35:24,000 --> 10:35:29,436
salaries or flashy offices. He was
12465
10:35:26,640 --> 10:35:31,520
offering a chance to build a holy grail,
12466
10:35:29,436 --> 10:35:33,840
a financial firm where technology
12467
10:35:31,520 --> 10:35:36,880
governed the ego, not the other way
12468
10:35:33,840 --> 10:35:39,120
round. And he eventually found the right
12469
10:35:36,880 --> 10:35:42,120
people to help him build that holy
12470
10:35:39,120 --> 10:35:42,120
grail.
12471
10:35:42,720 --> 10:35:48,960
Rob Capito, the enforcer, a powerhouse
12472
10:35:46,800 --> 10:35:51,520
trader who knew the plumbing of the bomb
12473
10:35:48,960 --> 10:35:53,596
market better than anyone else. He
12474
10:35:51,520 --> 10:35:57,200
provided the muscle Larry needed to
12475
10:35:53,596 --> 10:36:00,320
execute the vision. Ben Golib, the
12476
10:35:57,200 --> 10:36:02,960
Oracle, a PhD with a mind like a
12477
10:36:00,320 --> 10:36:05,680
supercomput. While other bankers were
12478
10:36:02,960 --> 10:36:08,240
focused on lunch reservations, Golib was
12479
10:36:05,680 --> 10:36:10,960
thinking about value at risk and Monte
12480
10:36:08,240 --> 10:36:14,480
Carlo simulations.
12481
10:36:10,960 --> 10:36:16,880
Susan Wagner, the mastermind,
12482
10:36:14,480 --> 10:36:18,480
brilliant, calculating, and capable of
12483
10:36:16,880 --> 10:36:20,720
seeing structural flaws in a
12484
10:36:18,480 --> 10:36:23,040
multi-billion dollar merger before a
12485
10:36:20,720 --> 10:36:25,680
single paper was signed. Along with
12486
10:36:23,040 --> 10:36:28,320
Barbara Novik, Ralph Schllostein, Q
12487
10:36:25,680 --> 10:36:31,276
Freigha, and Keith Anderson, they became
12488
10:36:28,320 --> 10:36:33,120
the original eight. Frink wasn't looking
12489
10:36:31,276 --> 10:36:36,480
for bankers who would run after the
12490
10:36:33,120 --> 10:36:39,276
money. He wanted architects, people who
12491
10:36:36,480 --> 10:36:41,276
were tired of being blind.
12492
10:36:39,276 --> 10:36:43,916
When he found them, they met in living
12493
10:36:41,276 --> 10:36:45,756
rooms and coffee shops. They had the
12494
10:36:43,916 --> 10:36:48,800
blueprints for a system they called
12495
10:36:45,756 --> 10:36:51,520
Aladdin, an acronym for asset,
12496
10:36:48,800 --> 10:36:54,560
liability, debt, and derivative
12497
10:36:51,520 --> 10:36:57,040
investment network. It was designed to
12498
10:36:54,560 --> 10:36:59,200
be the unblinking eye Larry had dreamed
12499
10:36:57,040 --> 10:37:01,276
of in his exile.
12500
10:36:59,200 --> 10:37:04,240
But a brain without a body is just a
12501
10:37:01,276 --> 10:37:07,596
dream. To build Aladdin, they needed
12502
10:37:04,240 --> 10:37:09,360
hardware. They needed offices. And most
12503
10:37:07,596 --> 10:37:11,916
importantly, they needed the one thing
12504
10:37:09,360 --> 10:37:14,480
Larry's reputation had cost him.
12505
10:37:11,916 --> 10:37:16,720
Capital. Aladdin was not designed to
12506
10:37:14,480 --> 10:37:19,120
beat the market. It was designed to
12507
10:37:16,720 --> 10:37:22,000
understand it. But its real power
12508
10:37:19,120 --> 10:37:25,276
emerged when others started using it.
12509
10:37:22,000 --> 10:37:28,400
Banks, insurance companies, pension
12510
10:37:25,276 --> 10:37:30,560
funds, sovereign institutions. As
12511
10:37:28,400 --> 10:37:34,000
Aladdin spread, something subtle
12512
10:37:30,560 --> 10:37:36,160
happened. Risk stopped being subjective.
12513
10:37:34,000 --> 10:37:38,400
It became standardized.
12514
10:37:36,160 --> 10:37:40,720
When Aladdin flagged an asset as
12515
10:37:38,400 --> 10:37:43,720
dangerous, entire markets adjusted
12516
10:37:40,720 --> 10:37:43,720
accordingly.
12517
10:37:43,840 --> 10:37:49,120
Not because Larry Frink said so, but
12518
10:37:46,240 --> 10:37:51,040
because the system trusted the model. At
12519
10:37:49,120 --> 10:37:53,436
that point, Black Rockck was no longer
12520
10:37:51,040 --> 10:37:56,560
just managing money. It was helping
12521
10:37:53,436 --> 10:37:58,960
define how risk itself was understood.
12522
10:37:56,560 --> 10:38:02,680
And whoever defines risk defines the
12523
10:37:58,960 --> 10:38:02,680
boundaries of decisionmaking.
12524
10:38:11,120 --> 10:38:16,560
Enter Steven Schwartzman. In 1988,
12525
10:38:14,480 --> 10:38:19,756
Schwartzman was the rising king of
12526
10:38:16,560 --> 10:38:23,436
private equity. His firm Blackstone was
12527
10:38:19,756 --> 10:38:26,000
aggressive, wealthy, and hungry.
12528
10:38:23,436 --> 10:38:29,120
The meeting was tense. Schwartzman knew
12529
10:38:26,000 --> 10:38:30,640
Larry's history. He knew about the 1986
12530
10:38:29,120 --> 10:38:33,200
disaster.
12531
10:38:30,640 --> 10:38:36,640
But Larry didn't hide from it. He used
12532
10:38:33,200 --> 10:38:38,640
it as his primary selling point. Because
12533
10:38:36,640 --> 10:38:41,040
Larry had seen the end of the world
12534
10:38:38,640 --> 10:38:43,360
already, he knew exactly how the lights
12535
10:38:41,040 --> 10:38:45,276
went out. And because of that, he was
12536
10:38:43,360 --> 10:38:47,200
the only one who knew how to keep them
12537
10:38:45,276 --> 10:38:49,916
on.
12538
10:38:47,200 --> 10:38:51,916
Larry's pitch was revolutionary. He
12539
10:38:49,916 --> 10:38:55,120
didn't want to start a hedge fund. He
12540
10:38:51,916 --> 10:38:56,880
wanted to create a fiduciary company, a
12541
10:38:55,120 --> 10:38:59,040
firm that managed other people's money
12542
10:38:56,880 --> 10:39:02,320
with the same technological rigor
12543
10:38:59,040 --> 10:39:04,800
usually reserved for NASA. He asked for
12544
10:39:02,320 --> 10:39:07,520
a $5 million credit line and a
12545
10:39:04,800 --> 10:39:10,560
partnership. In exchange, Schwartzman
12546
10:39:07,520 --> 10:39:12,720
would own 50% of the new venture. He
12547
10:39:10,560 --> 10:39:15,200
knew he was buying cheap because he was
12548
10:39:12,720 --> 10:39:17,596
buying on a distressed asset, Frink's
12549
10:39:15,200 --> 10:39:19,520
damaged reputation.
12550
10:39:17,596 --> 10:39:21,596
But he did so betting on the idea that
12551
10:39:19,520 --> 10:39:26,240
the experience had turned Larry Frink
12552
10:39:21,596 --> 10:39:29,520
into some sort of financial genius.
12553
10:39:26,240 --> 10:39:32,160
The deal was done. On a Friday in March
12554
10:39:29,520 --> 10:39:34,000
1988, the team moved into a single
12555
10:39:32,160 --> 10:39:35,596
cramped room within Blackstone's
12556
10:39:34,000 --> 10:39:38,240
offices.
12557
10:39:35,596 --> 10:39:40,240
They were five computers, a few folding
12558
10:39:38,240 --> 10:39:42,960
chairs, and a mountain of cables on the
12559
10:39:40,240 --> 10:39:45,276
floor. They were under the Blackstone
12560
10:39:42,960 --> 10:39:47,840
umbrella, but Larry knew that this was
12561
10:39:45,276 --> 10:39:51,276
just a temporary shelter. He didn't just
12562
10:39:47,840 --> 10:39:53,916
want a department, he wanted an empire.
12563
10:39:51,276 --> 10:39:56,080
He had the money. He had the team. And
12564
10:39:53,916 --> 10:39:58,160
in the corner of that small room, the
12565
10:39:56,080 --> 10:40:00,960
first lines of code for Aladdin were
12566
10:39:58,160 --> 10:40:03,916
being written.
12567
10:40:00,960 --> 10:40:05,916
The information blindness was over. The
12568
10:40:03,916 --> 10:40:10,360
era of Black Rock, though it didn't have
12569
10:40:05,916 --> 10:40:10,360
that name yet, had begun.
12570
10:40:14,480 --> 10:40:19,680
The first office of Blackstone Financial
12571
10:40:16,800 --> 10:40:22,560
Management wasn't a glass tower. It was
12572
10:40:19,680 --> 10:40:24,800
a glorified closet. Because of the heat
12573
10:40:22,560 --> 10:40:26,560
generated by the early Sun Micros
12574
10:40:24,800 --> 10:40:28,320
Systemystems workstations, the
12575
10:40:26,560 --> 10:40:32,800
temperature in the room rarely dropped
12576
10:40:28,320 --> 10:40:34,640
below 80° 27° C.
12577
10:40:32,800 --> 10:40:37,040
While the rest of the Blackstone group
12578
10:40:34,640 --> 10:40:39,520
was out at expensive lunches closing
12579
10:40:37,040 --> 10:40:43,916
leveraged buyouts, Larry's original
12580
10:40:39,520 --> 10:40:46,240
eight were building a digital fortress.
12581
10:40:43,916 --> 10:40:48,560
They were the weirdos in the basement.
12582
10:40:46,240 --> 10:40:52,240
It was here that the name Aladdin became
12583
10:40:48,560 --> 10:40:54,960
a living thing. Every day, Ben Goler and
12584
10:40:52,240 --> 10:40:58,080
his team fed it data. Interest rates,
12585
10:40:54,960 --> 10:40:59,840
housing prices, historical crashes. They
12586
10:40:58,080 --> 10:41:05,240
were teaching the machine to be afraid
12587
10:40:59,840 --> 10:41:05,240
of everything Larry hadn't seen in 1986.
12588
10:41:08,880 --> 10:41:14,080
By 1992, the department inside
12589
10:41:11,520 --> 10:41:16,800
Blackstone was no longer a startup. It
12590
10:41:14,080 --> 10:41:20,160
was a powerhouse. Larry's team was
12591
10:41:16,800 --> 10:41:21,756
managing $17 billion.
12592
10:41:20,160 --> 10:41:24,080
They weren't just a side project
12593
10:41:21,756 --> 10:41:27,040
anymore. They were a significant engine
12594
10:41:24,080 --> 10:41:29,520
of Blackstone's growth. But with success
12595
10:41:27,040 --> 10:41:31,680
came a toxic byproduct,
12596
10:41:29,520 --> 10:41:34,320
identity confusion.
12597
10:41:31,680 --> 10:41:36,000
Clients were getting confused. They
12598
10:41:34,320 --> 10:41:38,480
would call Blackstone looking for
12599
10:41:36,000 --> 10:41:40,960
Larry's bond expertise or called Larry
12600
10:41:38,480 --> 10:41:43,436
looking for Schwarzman's buyouts. But
12601
10:41:40,960 --> 10:41:46,080
the friction went deeper than a name. It
12602
10:41:43,436 --> 10:41:48,560
was a war of philosophies. Schwartzman
12603
10:41:46,080 --> 10:41:51,916
was a dealmaker. He wanted to own
12604
10:41:48,560 --> 10:41:55,360
companies. Think was a fiduciary. He
12605
10:41:51,916 --> 10:41:57,520
wanted to manage risk for others.
12606
10:41:55,360 --> 10:41:59,840
The tension was similar to having two
12607
10:41:57,520 --> 10:42:02,240
predators in a cage too small to fit
12608
10:41:59,840 --> 10:42:05,360
both. The breaking point came over
12609
10:42:02,240 --> 10:42:07,596
equity. Larry wanted to use stock to
12610
10:42:05,360 --> 10:42:10,800
attract and keep the original eight and
12611
10:42:07,596 --> 10:42:12,880
new talent. Schwarzman, holding 50% of
12612
10:42:10,800 --> 10:42:15,436
the firm, didn't want to dilute his
12613
10:42:12,880 --> 10:42:17,596
state. The partnership that saved
12614
10:42:15,436 --> 10:42:23,596
Larry's career was now suffocating his
12615
10:42:17,596 --> 10:42:25,680
vision. In 1994, they reached the deal.
12616
10:42:23,596 --> 10:42:29,596
Schwarzman agreed to sell Blackstone
12617
10:42:25,680 --> 10:42:31,680
steak for $240 million. At the time, it
12618
10:42:29,596 --> 10:42:33,840
seemed like a win for Schwarzman, a
12619
10:42:31,680 --> 10:42:36,720
massive return on his $5 million
12620
10:42:33,840 --> 10:42:39,120
investment. It wasn't just about money.
12621
10:42:36,720 --> 10:42:41,360
It was about the spotlight. Schwarzman
12622
10:42:39,120 --> 10:42:43,840
was the king of Wall Street, but his
12623
10:42:41,360 --> 10:42:46,400
subtenant, Larry Frink, was the one the
12624
10:42:43,840 --> 10:42:49,916
New York Times wanted to interview. But
12625
10:42:46,400 --> 10:42:52,000
for Larry, it was the price of freedom.
12626
10:42:49,916 --> 10:42:54,320
Schwarzman would later call selling
12627
10:42:52,000 --> 10:42:57,040
Black Rock the worst mistake of my
12628
10:42:54,320 --> 10:42:59,596
career. For Larry, the divorce was the
12629
10:42:57,040 --> 10:43:02,080
moment the training wheels came off. He
12630
10:42:59,596 --> 10:43:05,120
was no longer under anyone's umbrella.
12631
10:43:02,080 --> 10:43:06,800
He was the CEO of an independent firm.
12632
10:43:05,120 --> 10:43:08,720
Now he just had to prove he could
12633
10:43:06,800 --> 10:43:11,720
survive the coming storm of the late
12634
10:43:08,720 --> 10:43:11,720
90s.
12635
10:43:19,436 --> 10:43:25,276
It is 2008. The financial world was
12636
10:43:22,720 --> 10:43:27,520
experiencing a heart attack. The
12637
10:43:25,276 --> 10:43:29,840
financial smoothies that mortgage back
12638
10:43:27,520 --> 10:43:32,160
securities Larry had helped create 30
12639
10:43:29,840 --> 10:43:34,880
years earlier had turned into a global
12640
10:43:32,160 --> 10:43:37,276
poison. Banks didn't know what they
12641
10:43:34,880 --> 10:43:39,840
owned, and more importantly, they didn't
12642
10:43:37,276 --> 10:43:41,916
know what their neighbors owned. Trust
12643
10:43:39,840 --> 10:43:43,916
had evaporated.
12644
10:43:41,916 --> 10:43:45,680
When the US government realized the
12645
10:43:43,916 --> 10:43:47,756
economy was on the brink of a total
12646
10:43:45,680 --> 10:43:51,680
blackout, they didn't call Goldman
12647
10:43:47,756 --> 10:43:54,000
Sachs. They didn't call JP Morgan. While
12648
10:43:51,680 --> 10:43:56,000
the CEOs of Layman and Merrill were
12649
10:43:54,000 --> 10:43:58,160
begging for government checks, Larry
12650
10:43:56,000 --> 10:44:00,400
Frink was the one the government called
12651
10:43:58,160 --> 10:44:02,640
to write the checks.
12652
10:44:00,400 --> 10:44:05,120
He was the only titan left standing with
12653
10:44:02,640 --> 10:44:07,200
a clean balance sheet.
12654
10:44:05,120 --> 10:44:09,276
The United States government didn't just
12655
10:44:07,200 --> 10:44:11,120
seek advice. It delegated
12656
10:44:09,276 --> 10:44:13,120
responsibility.
12657
10:44:11,120 --> 10:44:16,000
Black Rockck was tasked with valuing
12658
10:44:13,120 --> 10:44:18,240
assets no one understood, managing risks
12659
10:44:16,000 --> 10:44:20,160
no one could measure, and stabilizing
12660
10:44:18,240 --> 10:44:22,640
markets that were collapsing in real
12661
10:44:20,160 --> 10:44:25,040
time.
12662
10:44:22,640 --> 10:44:28,160
This wasn't a bailout. It was an
12663
10:44:25,040 --> 10:44:29,916
outsourcing of core sovereign functions.
12664
10:44:28,160 --> 10:44:31,916
For the first time, a private firm
12665
10:44:29,916 --> 10:44:34,960
played a central role in maintaining
12666
10:44:31,916 --> 10:44:36,880
global financial stability. Not through
12667
10:44:34,960 --> 10:44:39,276
political authority, but through
12668
10:44:36,880 --> 10:44:41,916
technical capability.
12669
10:44:39,276 --> 10:44:44,800
From that moment on, power was no longer
12670
10:44:41,916 --> 10:44:46,800
just about laws and institutions. It was
12671
10:44:44,800 --> 10:44:48,960
about who had the tools to see the
12672
10:44:46,800 --> 10:44:50,880
system clearly.
12673
10:44:48,960 --> 10:44:53,916
Black Rockck was hired to manage the
12674
10:44:50,880 --> 10:44:55,596
toxic waste of the crisis. They became
12675
10:44:53,916 --> 10:44:58,960
the official cleaner for the US
12676
10:44:55,596 --> 10:45:02,436
government, managing $130 billion of
12677
10:44:58,960 --> 10:45:02,436
troubled assets.
12678
10:45:02,480 --> 10:45:07,200
Suddenly, Larry Frink was the most
12679
10:45:04,880 --> 10:45:08,960
powerful man in the room, acting as an
12680
10:45:07,200 --> 10:45:10,480
adviser to the president and the
12681
10:45:08,960 --> 10:45:12,800
Treasury.
12682
10:45:10,480 --> 10:45:15,596
But while he was saving the system, he
12683
10:45:12,800 --> 10:45:17,916
saw a once-ina-lifetime opportunity to
12684
10:45:15,596 --> 10:45:20,400
dominate it. In the middle of the
12685
10:45:17,916 --> 10:45:23,200
carnage, Barclay's bank in the UK was
12686
10:45:20,400 --> 10:45:25,520
desperate for cash. They needed to sell
12687
10:45:23,200 --> 10:45:27,520
their crown jewel, a division called
12688
10:45:25,520 --> 10:45:29,916
Barclay's Global Investors, which
12689
10:45:27,520 --> 10:45:31,680
included a revolutionary product called
12690
10:45:29,916 --> 10:45:34,720
Eyesshares.
12691
10:45:31,680 --> 10:45:37,120
Eyesshares represented passive investing
12692
10:45:34,720 --> 10:45:39,840
ETFs that track the whole market rather
12693
10:45:37,120 --> 10:45:41,276
than trying to beat it. It was the
12694
10:45:39,840 --> 10:45:44,080
ultimate expression of Larry's
12695
10:45:41,276 --> 10:45:46,640
philosophy. Stop betting on stars and
12696
10:45:44,080 --> 10:45:51,120
start owning the system. It was a
12697
10:45:46,640 --> 10:45:53,520
massive $13.5 billion gamble.
12698
10:45:51,120 --> 10:45:56,240
If the markets continue to fall, deal
12699
10:45:53,520 --> 10:45:58,480
could sink Black Rockck. But Larry knew
12700
10:45:56,240 --> 10:46:00,480
something the others didn't. He had
12701
10:45:58,480 --> 10:46:02,720
looked into the eye of Aladdin, and
12702
10:46:00,480 --> 10:46:05,520
Aladdin told him that the bottom was
12703
10:46:02,720 --> 10:46:08,480
near. With the acquisition of Eyesshares
12704
10:46:05,520 --> 10:46:11,200
in 2009, Black Rockck doubled its size
12705
10:46:08,480 --> 10:46:13,916
overnight. They weren't just a bond shop
12706
10:46:11,200 --> 10:46:16,880
anymore. They were now the largest money
12707
10:46:13,916 --> 10:46:19,520
manager on the planet. They had gone
12708
10:46:16,880 --> 10:46:21,680
into the crisis as a respected firm.
12709
10:46:19,520 --> 10:46:25,480
They came out of it as the shadow
12710
10:46:21,680 --> 10:46:25,480
government of finance.
12711
10:46:30,160 --> 10:46:35,436
By 2012, Larry Frink had built the
12712
10:46:32,720 --> 10:46:38,080
machine. He had the assets, the data,
12713
10:46:35,436 --> 10:46:41,360
and the influence. But he realized that
12714
10:46:38,080 --> 10:46:43,276
being king of Wall Street wasn't enough.
12715
10:46:41,360 --> 10:46:46,480
He wanted to change the way the world
12716
10:46:43,276 --> 10:46:48,320
did business. Every January, a ritual
12717
10:46:46,480 --> 10:46:51,436
began that would send tremors through
12718
10:46:48,320 --> 10:46:53,756
boardrooms from Detroit to Frankfurt.
12719
10:46:51,436 --> 10:46:56,240
Larry started writing letters. They
12720
10:46:53,756 --> 10:47:00,120
weren't just annual reports. They were
12721
10:46:56,240 --> 10:47:00,120
the Black Rockck Manifestos.
12722
10:47:00,800 --> 10:47:06,800
In 2018, he dropped a bomb. He told the
12723
10:47:04,560 --> 10:47:08,960
world's CEOs that if they wanted Black
12724
10:47:06,800 --> 10:47:12,000
Rockck's money, they had to prove they
12725
10:47:08,960 --> 10:47:14,800
served a social purpose. He wasn't just
12726
10:47:12,000 --> 10:47:18,800
asking for profits. He was asking for a
12727
10:47:14,800 --> 10:47:21,680
soul. He was mainstreaming ESG,
12728
10:47:18,800 --> 10:47:24,880
environmental, social, and governance.
12729
10:47:21,680 --> 10:47:27,916
And he was doing it with a $10 trillion
12730
10:47:24,880 --> 10:47:31,436
hammer. But Larry's new gospel didn't
12731
10:47:27,916 --> 10:47:33,360
sit well with everyone. By 2021, the
12732
10:47:31,436 --> 10:47:36,960
Golden Boy was finding himself in the
12733
10:47:33,360 --> 10:47:40,160
middle of a two-front war.
12734
10:47:36,960 --> 10:47:44,000
The ESG debate was never cultural. It
12735
10:47:40,160 --> 10:47:45,916
was economic. At its core, ESG was about
12736
10:47:44,000 --> 10:47:48,480
risk management, anticipating
12737
10:47:45,916 --> 10:47:50,720
regulation, climate disruption, and
12738
10:47:48,480 --> 10:47:52,880
social instability.
12739
10:47:50,720 --> 10:47:55,756
For Black Rockck, ignoring those factors
12740
10:47:52,880 --> 10:47:58,320
wasn't neutral. It was dangerous. But
12741
10:47:55,756 --> 10:48:01,040
when capital begins to price the future,
12742
10:47:58,320 --> 10:48:03,840
it also begins to shape it. That's why
12743
10:48:01,040 --> 10:48:06,640
the backlash was so intense.
12744
10:48:03,840 --> 10:48:08,560
To the left, Larry was a hypocrite. They
12745
10:48:06,640 --> 10:48:10,800
called him a greenwasher because Black
12746
10:48:08,560 --> 10:48:13,360
Rockck still held billions in oil and
12747
10:48:10,800 --> 10:48:15,436
gas stocks. To the right, he was a
12748
10:48:13,360 --> 10:48:17,360
globalist villain who was using other
12749
10:48:15,436 --> 10:48:20,240
people's money to push a radical
12750
10:48:17,360 --> 10:48:22,240
environmental agenda. The backlash
12751
10:48:20,240 --> 10:48:25,240
turned into a full-scale political
12752
10:48:22,240 --> 10:48:25,240
assault.
12753
10:48:25,276 --> 10:48:30,080
State treasurers in Florida, Texas, and
12754
10:48:27,756 --> 10:48:32,800
Mississippi began pulling billions out
12755
10:48:30,080 --> 10:48:35,436
of Black Rockck. They accused Larry of
12756
10:48:32,800 --> 10:48:37,680
boycotting energy and violating his duty
12757
10:48:35,436 --> 10:48:39,520
to investors.
12758
10:48:37,680 --> 10:48:42,240
For the first time, the man who had
12759
10:48:39,520 --> 10:48:47,560
mastered risk found himself in a risk he
12760
10:48:42,240 --> 10:48:47,560
couldn't calculate, the culture war.
12761
10:48:49,040 --> 10:48:53,916
He told a crowd in Aspen that he was
12762
10:48:51,276 --> 10:48:56,160
ashamed to be a part of the debate. He
12763
10:48:53,916 --> 10:48:59,040
even stopped using the term ESG
12764
10:48:56,160 --> 10:49:00,960
altogether, calling it weaponized.
12765
10:48:59,040 --> 10:49:03,680
He had tried to become the conscience of
12766
10:49:00,960 --> 10:49:06,560
capitalism. Instead, it became its most
12767
10:49:03,680 --> 10:49:08,560
controversial target. But even as the
12768
10:49:06,560 --> 10:49:13,520
politicians shouted and the protesters
12769
10:49:08,560 --> 10:49:15,276
marched, the assets kept growing.
12770
10:49:13,520 --> 10:49:17,276
Because in the end, whether you loved
12771
10:49:15,276 --> 10:49:21,320
him or hated him, you couldn't escape
12772
10:49:17,276 --> 10:49:21,320
the machine he built.
12773
10:49:29,200 --> 10:49:33,756
January 2026,
12774
10:49:31,436 --> 10:49:35,436
the number flashes on a terminal in
12775
10:49:33,756 --> 10:49:36,960
Black Rockck's Hudson Yards
12776
10:49:35,436 --> 10:49:39,436
headquarters.
12777
10:49:36,960 --> 10:49:42,640
$14 trillion.
12778
10:49:39,436 --> 10:49:44,240
It is a number so vast it defies human
12779
10:49:42,640 --> 10:49:46,640
comprehension.
12780
10:49:44,240 --> 10:49:49,200
If Larry Frink's assets under management
12781
10:49:46,640 --> 10:49:51,200
were a country's GDP, it would be the
12782
10:49:49,200 --> 10:49:53,680
third largest economy on Earth,
12783
10:49:51,200 --> 10:49:55,276
surpassed only by the United States and
12784
10:49:53,680 --> 10:49:57,520
China.
12785
10:49:55,276 --> 10:50:00,320
But as Larry looks out from his office,
12786
10:49:57,520 --> 10:50:02,240
he isn't looking at stock tickers. He is
12787
10:50:00,320 --> 10:50:05,240
looking at the very bones of
12788
10:50:02,240 --> 10:50:05,240
civilization.
12789
10:50:06,800 --> 10:50:13,200
In 2024, Larry made his final most
12790
10:50:10,160 --> 10:50:15,680
aggressive pivot. He realized that the
12791
10:50:13,200 --> 10:50:18,480
next decade won't be one with bits on a
12792
10:50:15,680 --> 10:50:21,680
screen, but with atoms in the ground.
12793
10:50:18,480 --> 10:50:24,160
With the 12.5 billion acquisition of
12794
10:50:21,680 --> 10:50:26,400
global infrastructure partners, Larry
12795
10:50:24,160 --> 10:50:29,916
signaled the end of the old Wall Street
12796
10:50:26,400 --> 10:50:32,400
era. Larry saw the AI revolution coming.
12797
10:50:29,916 --> 10:50:34,480
But he didn't buy the chip makers. He
12798
10:50:32,400 --> 10:50:37,480
bought the power plants that feed the
12799
10:50:34,480 --> 10:50:37,480
chips.
12800
10:50:40,400 --> 10:50:47,400
But every empire faces the same
12801
10:50:42,400 --> 10:50:47,400
inevitable question. Succession.
12802
10:50:48,800 --> 10:50:53,120
For years, Wall Street has whispered
12803
10:50:50,880 --> 10:50:56,400
about who could possibly replace the man
12804
10:50:53,120 --> 10:50:58,720
who is Black Rockck. Names like Rob
12805
10:50:56,400 --> 10:51:01,120
Capito, Mark Weberman, and Jennifer
12806
10:50:58,720 --> 10:51:04,160
Johnson swirl in the press. But the
12807
10:51:01,120 --> 10:51:06,800
truth is more complex. Larry hasn't just
12808
10:51:04,160 --> 10:51:09,040
built a company. He's built an organism.
12809
10:51:06,800 --> 10:51:11,916
A system where Aladdin, now a very
12810
10:51:09,040 --> 10:51:15,040
sophisticated AI entity, handles the
12811
10:51:11,916 --> 10:51:17,840
risk while a legion of 20,000 employees,
12812
10:51:15,040 --> 10:51:20,240
executes the vision. Aladdin is no
12813
10:51:17,840 --> 10:51:22,240
longer just a calculator. It is a
12814
10:51:20,240 --> 10:51:24,960
predictive engine that runs millions of
12815
10:51:22,240 --> 10:51:26,800
simulations every second, anticipating
12816
10:51:24,960 --> 10:51:30,640
everything from a war in the Middle East
12817
10:51:26,800 --> 10:51:33,040
to a crop failure in Brazil.
12818
10:51:30,640 --> 10:51:36,320
Some call him the king of the world.
12819
10:51:33,040 --> 10:51:38,560
Others call him the shadow architect.
12820
10:51:36,320 --> 10:51:40,560
But if you ask Larry, he'll tell you
12821
10:51:38,560 --> 10:51:42,880
he's still that kid from the Van Noise
12822
10:51:40,560 --> 10:51:47,000
shoe store, just trying to make sure
12823
10:51:42,880 --> 10:51:47,000
that the maths add up.
12824
10:51:47,276 --> 10:51:51,596
He took the greatest humiliation of his
12825
10:51:49,276 --> 10:51:53,596
life and turned it into a shield for the
12826
10:51:51,596 --> 10:51:55,680
global economy.
12827
10:51:53,596 --> 10:51:58,320
He taught the world that profit without
12828
10:51:55,680 --> 10:52:00,560
a plan is just a gamble and that in the
12829
10:51:58,320 --> 10:52:03,436
dark, the man with the flashlight is
12830
10:52:00,560 --> 10:52:05,520
king.
12831
10:52:03,436 --> 10:52:08,480
There is one financial question the
12832
10:52:05,520 --> 10:52:11,040
system cannot answer. What happens when
12833
10:52:08,480 --> 10:52:13,436
everyone measures risk the same way?
12834
10:52:11,040 --> 10:52:15,840
When models converge. When assumptions
12835
10:52:13,436 --> 10:52:17,596
align. When diversity of judgment
12836
10:52:15,840 --> 10:52:19,840
disappears.
12837
10:52:17,596 --> 10:52:22,800
A system optimized for stability can
12838
10:52:19,840 --> 10:52:24,800
become fragile. Not because it is wrong
12839
10:52:22,800 --> 10:52:26,400
but because it leaves no room for the
12840
10:52:24,800 --> 10:52:28,560
unexpected.
12841
10:52:26,400 --> 10:52:31,040
When the supervisor becomes invisible
12842
10:52:28,560 --> 10:52:34,160
and the rules are embedded in code,
12843
10:52:31,040 --> 10:52:37,436
accountability becomes harder to locate,
12844
10:52:34,160 --> 10:52:39,360
the system works until it doesn't. And
12845
10:52:37,436 --> 10:52:41,916
that's why Blackprop isn't just a
12846
10:52:39,360 --> 10:52:44,560
shareholder in your company. They are
12847
10:52:41,916 --> 10:52:47,360
the landlord of your power plant, the
12848
10:52:44,560 --> 10:52:49,680
owner of your airport, the architect of
12849
10:52:47,360 --> 10:52:51,680
your retirement. It is a level of
12850
10:52:49,680 --> 10:52:54,400
centralized influence the world has
12851
10:52:51,680 --> 10:52:56,880
never seen in a private individual.
12852
10:52:54,400 --> 10:52:59,756
Lawrence D.Fink didn't just build a
12853
10:52:56,880 --> 10:53:01,360
bank. He built the unblinking eye of
12854
10:52:59,756 --> 10:53:03,680
capitalism.
12855
10:53:01,360 --> 10:53:05,840
And as the world moves into the era of
12856
10:53:03,680 --> 10:53:08,720
AI, climate shift, and global
12857
10:53:05,840 --> 10:53:12,000
restructuring, one thing is certain.
12858
10:53:08,720 --> 10:53:16,596
Black Rockck will be there, watching,
12859
10:53:12,000 --> 10:53:16,596
calculating, and growing.
12860
10:54:36,720 --> 10:54:41,756
It's just a small plastic brick.
12861
10:54:40,240 --> 10:54:46,880
Lightweight,
12862
10:54:41,756 --> 10:54:51,276
simple, unchanged since 1958.
12863
10:54:46,880 --> 10:54:53,360
And yet, it has built entire universes.
12864
10:54:51,276 --> 10:54:55,840
Lego constructions truly take us back to
12865
10:54:53,360 --> 10:54:57,596
childhood.
12866
10:54:55,840 --> 10:55:00,160
But they stay with us throughout our
12867
10:54:57,596 --> 10:55:02,560
entire lives. From bedrooms to
12868
10:55:00,160 --> 10:55:06,800
boardrooms, from playgrounds to
12869
10:55:02,560 --> 10:55:09,200
Hollywood, Lego has shaped generations.
12870
10:55:06,800 --> 10:55:11,040
>> When I design something from scratch, I
12871
10:55:09,200 --> 10:55:13,436
start with an idea that occurs to me at
12872
10:55:11,040 --> 10:55:15,276
any time of day.
12873
10:55:13,436 --> 10:55:18,240
>> I try to build it with Lego and see what
12874
10:55:15,276 --> 10:55:22,320
I come up with. In a global toy market
12875
10:55:18,240 --> 10:55:25,040
worth more than $120 billion, LEGO
12876
10:55:22,320 --> 10:55:28,000
stands alone. A single company
12877
10:55:25,040 --> 10:55:30,400
controlling nearly one in every $10
12878
10:55:28,000 --> 10:55:32,560
spent on toys worldwide.
12879
10:55:30,400 --> 10:55:34,160
>> LEGO holds a leading position worldwide,
12880
10:55:32,560 --> 10:55:35,840
recognized above all for its
12881
10:55:34,160 --> 10:55:38,000
playability.
12882
10:55:35,840 --> 10:55:42,080
>> What if the most beloved toy in the
12883
10:55:38,000 --> 10:55:44,480
world almost didn't exist?
12884
10:55:42,080 --> 10:55:47,200
Discover the incredible journey of a
12885
10:55:44,480 --> 10:55:49,116
small, struggling carpentry shop that
12886
10:55:47,200 --> 10:55:51,040
dared to dream bigger than anyone
12887
10:55:49,116 --> 10:55:53,520
thought possible.
12888
10:55:51,040 --> 10:55:56,560
>> This is the untold story of the
12889
10:55:53,520 --> 10:55:59,680
visionary who built Lego,
12890
10:55:56,560 --> 10:56:02,960
transforming simple wooden bricks into a
12891
10:55:59,680 --> 10:56:05,680
multibillion dollar empire and forever
12892
10:56:02,960 --> 10:56:07,276
changing how we play.
12893
10:56:05,680 --> 10:56:09,520
But none of this began with
12894
10:56:07,276 --> 10:56:11,200
billiondollar charts or cinematic
12895
10:56:09,520 --> 10:56:15,116
universes.
12896
10:56:11,200 --> 10:56:18,320
It began with a carpenter with a vision.
12897
10:56:15,116 --> 10:56:21,520
In a tiny Danish village, one man had a
12898
10:56:18,320 --> 10:56:24,520
dream. Building toys out of scraps of
12899
10:56:21,520 --> 10:56:24,520
wood.
12900
10:56:30,800 --> 10:56:37,596
Ole Kirk Christensen was born in 1891 in
12901
10:56:34,640 --> 10:56:41,596
western Denmark, a place defined by
12902
10:56:37,596 --> 10:56:44,320
silence, soil, and hard work.
12903
10:56:41,596 --> 10:56:46,480
He grew up poor, like most children in
12904
10:56:44,320 --> 10:56:47,840
the Jutland countryside.
12905
10:56:46,480 --> 10:56:50,480
But he learned the value of
12906
10:56:47,840 --> 10:56:54,000
craftsmanship early. When you made
12907
10:56:50,480 --> 10:56:56,720
something, it had to last.
12908
10:56:54,000 --> 10:56:58,960
He apprenticed as a carpenter. It was
12909
10:56:56,720 --> 10:57:02,560
not a really glamorous work, but
12910
10:56:58,960 --> 10:57:05,916
meticulous, honest, a craft that matched
12911
10:57:02,560 --> 10:57:08,320
Ola's character and manners.
12912
10:57:05,916 --> 10:57:11,756
Ola traveled through Denmark, Germany,
12913
10:57:08,320 --> 10:57:15,200
and Norway. Everywhere he went, he left
12914
10:57:11,756 --> 10:57:17,276
a reputation. Precise, patient,
12915
10:57:15,200 --> 10:57:20,880
relentless.
12916
10:57:17,276 --> 10:57:22,880
In 1916, Ole returned home and bought a
12917
10:57:20,880 --> 10:57:27,200
workshop in a place that barely existed
12918
10:57:22,880 --> 10:57:29,756
on the map. Bund. No shops, no train
12919
10:57:27,200 --> 10:57:31,756
station, just a handful of families
12920
10:57:29,756 --> 10:57:33,596
trying to survive the Danish winds.
12921
10:57:31,756 --> 10:57:36,720
>> Don't worry, I'm fine. I'm fine.
12922
10:57:33,596 --> 10:57:38,880
>> But 8 years later, disaster struck.
12923
10:57:36,720 --> 10:57:41,916
>> Oh. Oh. Oh no.
12924
10:57:38,880 --> 10:57:42,560
>> In 1924, a fire tore through his
12925
10:57:41,916 --> 10:57:45,436
workshop.
12926
10:57:42,560 --> 10:57:47,040
>> Oh god. No. Please no. Oh my god.
12927
10:57:45,436 --> 10:57:51,360
>> Everything burned.
12928
10:57:47,040 --> 10:57:54,720
tools, wood, orders, and a lifetime of
12929
10:57:51,360 --> 10:57:58,800
savings, all gone.
12930
10:57:54,720 --> 10:58:01,436
But Olair didn't quit. He rebuilt and
12931
10:57:58,800 --> 10:58:04,000
rebuilt bigger than before. Not because
12932
10:58:01,436 --> 10:58:07,916
it was safe, but because he refused to
12933
10:58:04,000 --> 10:58:10,800
let Bill disappear into the wind.
12934
10:58:07,916 --> 10:58:13,436
Then came the Great Depression. Houses
12935
10:58:10,800 --> 10:58:17,276
weren't being built. Doors weren't being
12936
10:58:13,436 --> 10:58:20,000
ordered. bills weren't being paid.
12937
10:58:17,276 --> 10:58:22,960
Oair had workers depending on him,
12938
10:58:20,000 --> 10:58:25,916
families depending on him. So, he did
12939
10:58:22,960 --> 10:58:28,240
something unexpected. He began crafting
12940
10:58:25,916 --> 10:58:31,360
small wooden toys.
12941
10:58:28,240 --> 10:58:33,360
They were simple, durable, and
12942
10:58:31,360 --> 10:58:36,320
beautiful.
12943
10:58:33,360 --> 10:58:40,080
Locals mocked him. A grown man making
12944
10:58:36,320 --> 10:58:43,436
toys for children. You'll never survive.
12945
10:58:40,080 --> 10:58:45,436
But Ola believed that play and fun was a
12946
10:58:43,436 --> 10:58:48,560
serious business.
12947
10:58:45,436 --> 10:58:52,240
In 1934, he held a contest to name the
12948
10:58:48,560 --> 10:58:55,916
new toy company. He chose a short word,
12949
10:58:52,240 --> 10:58:59,596
Lego. It was not only a simple idea, but
12950
10:58:55,916 --> 10:59:02,400
a philosophy and a promise.
12951
10:58:59,596 --> 10:59:05,040
He hung a sign in the workshop. Only the
12952
10:59:02,400 --> 10:59:10,116
best is good enough. It wasn't
12953
10:59:05,040 --> 10:59:10,116
marketing. It was his identity.
12954
10:59:12,000 --> 10:59:15,276
Oh god, not again.
12955
10:59:13,520 --> 10:59:18,720
>> In 1942,
12956
10:59:15,276 --> 10:59:21,276
Ola faced another fire. This time it was
12957
10:59:18,720 --> 10:59:24,880
bigger, more devastating. Every
12958
10:59:21,276 --> 10:59:27,436
blueprint, every toy, every dream he had
12959
10:59:24,880 --> 10:59:30,240
turned into smoke.
12960
10:59:27,436 --> 10:59:33,840
But he had built himself the hardship.
12961
10:59:30,240 --> 10:59:36,960
And once more, he rebuilt the factory
12962
10:59:33,840 --> 10:59:40,960
stronger than the two previous ones.
12963
10:59:36,960 --> 10:59:43,040
In 1947, at the worst economic moment,
12964
10:59:40,960 --> 10:59:46,000
Ola made the riskiest choice of his
12965
10:59:43,040 --> 10:59:48,160
life. He spent more than twice the
12966
10:59:46,000 --> 10:59:50,960
company's annual profits on a strange
12967
10:59:48,160 --> 10:59:54,000
new machine, one that worked not with
12968
10:59:50,960 --> 10:59:56,640
wood, but with plastic.
12969
10:59:54,000 --> 10:59:59,040
Retailers hated plastic. Parents
12970
10:59:56,640 --> 11:00:02,880
distrusted it. But Ola saw something
12971
10:59:59,040 --> 11:00:05,276
they didn't. Precision, repeatability,
12972
11:00:02,880 --> 11:00:07,520
and possibilities. Endless
12973
11:00:05,276 --> 11:00:10,880
possibilities.
12974
11:00:07,520 --> 11:00:13,040
Only 2 years later, in 1949,
12975
11:00:10,880 --> 11:00:16,320
LEGO released the first plastic bricks
12976
11:00:13,040 --> 11:00:19,116
of its history. They didn't click. They
12977
11:00:16,320 --> 11:00:22,116
weren't perfect, but they were the
12978
11:00:19,116 --> 11:00:22,116
beginning.
12979
11:00:26,400 --> 11:00:30,720
>> The idea was good, but Ola and his team
12980
11:00:28,960 --> 11:00:33,040
faced setbacks while designing the
12981
11:00:30,720 --> 11:00:36,240
bricks that had cemented Lego's identity
12982
11:00:33,040 --> 11:00:39,436
through the years. The plastic bricks
12983
11:00:36,240 --> 11:00:41,520
didn't grip. This was a major problem
12984
11:00:39,436 --> 11:00:44,240
for a building set because buildings
12985
11:00:41,520 --> 11:00:47,680
collapsed. Towers fell in front of their
12986
11:00:44,240 --> 11:00:52,160
eyes. Apparently, Lego wasn't created to
12987
11:00:47,680 --> 11:00:54,400
build. And then in 1958,
12988
11:00:52,160 --> 11:00:56,720
everything changed.
12989
11:00:54,400 --> 11:00:58,720
>> Unlike 20 years ago, LEGO today allows
12990
11:00:56,720 --> 11:01:01,040
us to build many more things because
12991
11:00:58,720 --> 11:01:04,360
they have released more realistic colors
12992
11:01:01,040 --> 11:01:04,360
and shapes.
12993
11:01:04,720 --> 11:01:09,520
In the past, the pieces were mostly
12994
11:01:06,800 --> 11:01:11,520
square. Today, there is a much wider
12995
11:01:09,520 --> 11:01:13,680
variety of shapes, including more
12996
11:01:11,520 --> 11:01:16,480
rounded elements, which allow us to
12997
11:01:13,680 --> 11:01:18,240
create more ergonomic forms, ones that
12998
11:01:16,480 --> 11:01:20,560
more closely resemble the kinds of
12999
11:01:18,240 --> 11:01:22,720
buildings and structures we see in
13000
11:01:20,560 --> 11:01:25,756
everyday life.
13001
11:01:22,720 --> 11:01:28,880
>> Engineers at LEGO perfected a simple but
13002
11:01:25,756 --> 11:01:30,880
ingenious solution. hollow tubes inside
13003
11:01:28,880 --> 11:01:33,200
the brick.
13004
11:01:30,880 --> 11:01:35,756
Paired with the studs on top, the
13005
11:01:33,200 --> 11:01:39,596
geometry created what LEGO calls clutch
13006
11:01:35,756 --> 11:01:41,840
power, not too tight, not too loose,
13007
11:01:39,596 --> 11:01:43,756
just perfect.
13008
11:01:41,840 --> 11:01:46,400
This was not just an adjustment or
13009
11:01:43,756 --> 11:01:49,520
improvement. It was the birth of what we
13010
11:01:46,400 --> 11:01:52,160
know today as a Lego brick. The brick
13011
11:01:49,520 --> 11:01:54,240
that today can still be used with the
13012
11:01:52,160 --> 11:01:56,320
modern ones.
13013
11:01:54,240 --> 11:01:59,840
the brick that was the foundation of a
13014
11:01:56,320 --> 11:02:03,276
company that still makes history today.
13015
11:01:59,840 --> 11:02:05,276
That same year, Lego filed the patent.
13016
11:02:03,276 --> 11:02:07,520
They had something worth protecting, and
13017
11:02:05,276 --> 11:02:10,720
Ollie knew that sooner or later, it
13018
11:02:07,520 --> 11:02:14,400
would be replicated.
13019
11:02:10,720 --> 11:02:17,840
It was January the 28th, 1958 when the
13020
11:02:14,400 --> 11:02:20,720
patent was filed. Later that year, Ole
13021
11:02:17,840 --> 11:02:24,000
Kirk Christensen passed away.
13022
11:02:20,720 --> 11:02:27,800
And sadly, he never lived to see how far
13023
11:02:24,000 --> 11:02:27,800
his brick would travel.
13024
11:02:35,276 --> 11:02:40,800
After his father died, Godfred Kerr
13025
11:02:37,916 --> 11:02:43,040
Christensen stepped in. He wasn't
13026
11:02:40,800 --> 11:02:46,080
inheriting the company. He was
13027
11:02:43,040 --> 11:02:48,560
inheriting a philosophy, one he had been
13028
11:02:46,080 --> 11:02:51,200
raised with. His father wasn't around
13029
11:02:48,560 --> 11:02:53,276
anymore, but the original spirit of Lego
13030
11:02:51,200 --> 11:02:55,276
lived on in the second Christensen
13031
11:02:53,276 --> 11:02:57,596
generation.
13032
11:02:55,276 --> 11:02:59,756
But he also had something to add.
13033
11:02:57,596 --> 11:03:03,116
Godfred believed Lego should be more
13034
11:02:59,756 --> 11:03:05,436
than toys. It should be a system. A
13035
11:03:03,116 --> 11:03:09,596
system where every piece connected with
13036
11:03:05,436 --> 11:03:11,756
every other piece across every set. This
13037
11:03:09,596 --> 11:03:13,276
created a language of creativity and
13038
11:03:11,756 --> 11:03:16,480
possibilities.
13039
11:03:13,276 --> 11:03:18,960
And a single idea changed everything.
13040
11:03:16,480 --> 11:03:22,880
Suddenly, LEGO wasn't a collection of
13041
11:03:18,960 --> 11:03:25,360
toys, but an entire universe.
13042
11:03:22,880 --> 11:03:27,360
The company began to grow far beyond its
13043
11:03:25,360 --> 11:03:31,116
original frontiers.
13044
11:03:27,360 --> 11:03:35,840
During the 1960s and '7s, Lego expanded
13045
11:03:31,116 --> 11:03:38,640
across Europe, Germany, Sweden, the UK.
13046
11:03:35,840 --> 11:03:42,080
Villand, once a small village, became a
13047
11:03:38,640 --> 11:03:44,720
global hub of play. Lego then built its
13048
11:03:42,080 --> 11:03:46,960
own airport, factories, and distribution
13049
11:03:44,720 --> 11:03:49,680
centers. In the world of construction
13050
11:03:46,960 --> 11:03:52,400
toys, we know that Lego isn't the only
13051
11:03:49,680 --> 11:03:56,880
brand around.
13052
11:03:52,400 --> 11:03:59,520
What Lego provides is a quality product.
13053
11:03:56,880 --> 11:04:02,400
Maybe one part is wrong for every 10,000
13054
11:03:59,520 --> 11:04:05,200
or 100,000 items. And if you are missing
13055
11:04:02,400 --> 11:04:07,360
an item from a box, or if it is faulty,
13056
11:04:05,200 --> 11:04:08,800
the company's after sales service will
13057
11:04:07,360 --> 11:04:12,200
not question the fact that you are
13058
11:04:08,800 --> 11:04:12,200
missing a part.
13059
11:04:12,960 --> 11:04:19,276
And then the magic happened.
13060
11:04:16,640 --> 11:04:23,520
LEGO introduced something no toy company
13061
11:04:19,276 --> 11:04:27,360
had done at scale. Fully themed worlds.
13062
11:04:23,520 --> 11:04:28,640
Space town castles.
13063
11:04:27,360 --> 11:04:31,116
Children weren't just building
13064
11:04:28,640 --> 11:04:32,960
structures anymore. They were building
13065
11:04:31,116 --> 11:04:36,560
stories.
13066
11:04:32,960 --> 11:04:38,480
In 1978, LEGO released its most iconic
13067
11:04:36,560 --> 11:04:40,000
invention since the brick, the
13068
11:04:38,480 --> 11:04:43,040
minifigure.
13069
11:04:40,000 --> 11:04:46,880
It had a simple face, hands shaped like
13070
11:04:43,040 --> 11:04:49,596
a sea, and feet made to stand on studs.
13071
11:04:46,880 --> 11:04:52,560
A tiny character that let kids project
13072
11:04:49,596 --> 11:04:55,596
themselves into entire universes.
13073
11:04:52,560 --> 11:04:57,116
Stories now had heroes, and Lego had a
13074
11:04:55,596 --> 11:05:00,240
heartbeat.
13075
11:04:57,116 --> 11:05:02,960
In the late 1970s, Lego was already run
13076
11:05:00,240 --> 11:05:06,400
by the third Christensen generation.
13077
11:05:02,960 --> 11:05:08,720
Ole's grandson killed began shaping the
13078
11:05:06,400 --> 11:05:12,080
company into the global powerhouse we
13079
11:05:08,720 --> 11:05:14,720
know today. He did so by creating more
13080
11:05:12,080 --> 11:05:18,000
sophisticated lines, bringing in new
13081
11:05:14,720 --> 11:05:20,400
universes, technic brought mechanics,
13082
11:05:18,000 --> 11:05:23,360
pirates brought adventure, and trains
13083
11:05:20,400 --> 11:05:25,756
brought motion. By the late 20th
13084
11:05:23,360 --> 11:05:28,800
century, the global toy market was
13085
11:05:25,756 --> 11:05:30,880
becoming massive. Tens of billions of
13086
11:05:28,800 --> 11:05:33,276
dollars a year worth.
13087
11:05:30,880 --> 11:05:36,080
The United States spent more on toys
13088
11:05:33,276 --> 11:05:38,960
than any country on Earth. And China
13089
11:05:36,080 --> 11:05:41,040
produced most of them, nearly 3/4 of the
13090
11:05:38,960 --> 11:05:43,916
world's total.
13091
11:05:41,040 --> 11:05:49,880
In this booming landscape, Lego wasn't
13092
11:05:43,916 --> 11:05:49,880
just another toy. It was the toy.
13093
11:05:54,480 --> 11:06:00,320
By the late 1990s, Lego was flying high.
13094
11:05:58,320 --> 11:06:02,480
It had become one of the most admired
13095
11:06:00,320 --> 11:06:04,640
companies in Europe. A creative
13096
11:06:02,480 --> 11:06:07,116
powerhouse built on the philosophy of
13097
11:06:04,640 --> 11:06:09,116
imagination and creation. We're not
13098
11:06:07,116 --> 11:06:10,880
focused only on childhood, but on
13099
11:06:09,116 --> 11:06:13,200
something that has quite literally built
13100
11:06:10,880 --> 11:06:15,360
us, pun intended, shaping our
13101
11:06:13,200 --> 11:06:18,000
personalities through Lego from an early
13102
11:06:15,360 --> 11:06:22,320
age. Those memories became a foundation
13103
11:06:18,000 --> 11:06:24,240
we've kept building on over time.
13104
11:06:22,320 --> 11:06:26,160
That's why exhibitions like this bring
13105
11:06:24,240 --> 11:06:29,116
us straight back to childhood. The
13106
11:06:26,160 --> 11:06:31,200
audience here is very diverse, but once
13107
11:06:29,116 --> 11:06:33,520
people walk in, they all become the boy
13108
11:06:31,200 --> 11:06:36,400
or girl they once were.
13109
11:06:33,520 --> 11:06:38,720
>> But it's not all gold that glitters.
13110
11:06:36,400 --> 11:06:41,680
Under the surface, something dangerous
13111
11:06:38,720 --> 11:06:43,916
was creeping in. The toy market was
13112
11:06:41,680 --> 11:06:45,916
changing fast. Children were spending
13113
11:06:43,916 --> 11:06:48,320
more and more time with video games and
13114
11:06:45,916 --> 11:06:50,560
early computer entertainment.
13115
11:06:48,320 --> 11:06:52,720
Sony's PlayStation, Nintendo, and
13116
11:06:50,560 --> 11:06:56,000
Hasbro's electronic toys were capturing
13117
11:06:52,720 --> 11:07:00,400
attention. And Lego, determined not to
13118
11:06:56,000 --> 11:07:02,880
fall behind, expanded too far, too fast.
13119
11:07:00,400 --> 11:07:05,116
Throughout the 1990s, LEGO began
13120
11:07:02,880 --> 11:07:07,916
introducing thousands of completely new
13121
11:07:05,116 --> 11:07:10,880
pieces, specialized parts that not only
13122
11:07:07,916 --> 11:07:14,640
worked in one set. A single year could
13123
11:07:10,880 --> 11:07:16,800
bring more than 350 new designs. Each of
13124
11:07:14,640 --> 11:07:19,276
them costing tens of thousands of
13125
11:07:16,800 --> 11:07:21,520
dollars in steel machining and precision
13126
11:07:19,276 --> 11:07:23,436
engineering.
13127
11:07:21,520 --> 11:07:25,756
In 2002,
13128
11:07:23,436 --> 11:07:28,640
Lego had more than 12,000 active
13129
11:07:25,756 --> 11:07:31,116
elements. The system of play, once
13130
11:07:28,640 --> 11:07:34,480
simple and universal, was becoming
13131
11:07:31,116 --> 11:07:37,436
chaotic and difficult to follow. LEGO
13132
11:07:34,480 --> 11:07:39,596
also tried becoming a lifestyle brand.
13133
11:07:37,436 --> 11:07:42,720
New ventures appeared everywhere.
13134
11:07:39,596 --> 11:07:44,960
Clothing lines, theme parks, homegoods,
13135
11:07:42,720 --> 11:07:46,640
cartoon series, even watches and
13136
11:07:44,960 --> 11:07:48,560
sneakers.
13137
11:07:46,640 --> 11:07:51,200
But these projects drained resources
13138
11:07:48,560 --> 11:07:56,720
without reinforcing the core product.
13139
11:07:51,200 --> 11:07:59,116
the brick. And between 1999 and 2003,
13140
11:07:56,720 --> 11:08:01,200
LEGO sales collapsed.
13141
11:07:59,116 --> 11:08:03,916
During these years, the company went
13142
11:08:01,200 --> 11:08:07,200
from double-digit growth to struggling.
13143
11:08:03,916 --> 11:08:10,480
And by 2003, the company was losing the
13144
11:08:07,200 --> 11:08:13,436
equivalent of $1 million a day. In a
13145
11:08:10,480 --> 11:08:17,200
global toy market still worth more than
13146
11:08:13,436 --> 11:08:19,596
$70 billion US at the time, Lego, once
13147
11:08:17,200 --> 11:08:22,080
the king of the toy box, was only a few
13148
11:08:19,596 --> 11:08:25,116
steps away from bankruptcy.
13149
11:08:22,080 --> 11:08:29,436
Times were dark, but a spark of genius
13150
11:08:25,116 --> 11:08:31,756
appeared. In 1999, LEGO signed its first
13151
11:08:29,436 --> 11:08:33,596
ever licensing deal with no other than
13152
11:08:31,756 --> 11:08:36,640
Lucasfilm.
13153
11:08:33,596 --> 11:08:39,916
The timing was perfect. Star Wars
13154
11:08:36,640 --> 11:08:42,720
Episode 1 was about to hit theaters.
13155
11:08:39,916 --> 11:08:45,756
Hype was global and the first Lego Star
13156
11:08:42,720 --> 11:08:48,960
Wars sets were instant hits, not just
13157
11:08:45,756 --> 11:08:51,040
with children, with adults. Collectors
13158
11:08:48,960 --> 11:08:53,116
lined up to buy the X-wing, the
13159
11:08:51,040 --> 11:08:56,400
Snowspeeder, or the first Millennium
13160
11:08:53,116 --> 11:08:59,276
Falcon. For the first time in LEGO's
13161
11:08:56,400 --> 11:09:02,080
history, adults, including those in
13162
11:08:59,276 --> 11:09:02,960
their 30s and 40s, were buying sets for
13163
11:09:02,080 --> 11:09:04,880
themselves.
13164
11:09:02,960 --> 11:09:07,596
>> The adult fan of Lego community is
13165
11:09:04,880 --> 11:09:09,680
getting bigger. This is because Lego is
13166
11:09:07,596 --> 11:09:12,240
not the same as it was 20 or 30 years
13167
11:09:09,680 --> 11:09:14,560
ago.
13168
11:09:12,240 --> 11:09:16,400
Before, Lego was only seen as a toy to
13169
11:09:14,560 --> 11:09:19,400
play with when it was cold and you were
13170
11:09:16,400 --> 11:09:19,400
indoors.
13171
11:09:19,680 --> 11:09:24,560
Today, Lego is much more than a toy.
13172
11:09:22,160 --> 11:09:26,880
It's used to create logos to design
13173
11:09:24,560 --> 11:09:29,840
dynamic group activities. And it also
13174
11:09:26,880 --> 11:09:32,080
represents a shift in how we see it.
13175
11:09:29,840 --> 11:09:34,480
years ago, if you said you played with
13176
11:09:32,080 --> 11:09:36,960
Lego or built Lego, you almost had to
13177
11:09:34,480 --> 11:09:38,720
explain yourself that you were at home
13178
11:09:36,960 --> 11:09:41,520
playing with little figures making up
13179
11:09:38,720 --> 11:09:43,360
battles. What we do today is different.
13180
11:09:41,520 --> 11:09:47,116
We come together as a community of
13181
11:09:43,360 --> 11:09:48,960
adults, and Lego has recognized that.
13182
11:09:47,116 --> 11:09:51,276
That's why more and more products are
13183
11:09:48,960 --> 11:09:53,916
now designed specifically for adults,
13184
11:09:51,276 --> 11:09:56,916
more complex to build, and also more
13185
11:09:53,916 --> 11:09:56,916
expensive.
13186
11:09:58,080 --> 11:10:03,840
This kid demographic would later become
13187
11:10:00,800 --> 11:10:06,720
one of LEGO's most profitable segments.
13188
11:10:03,840 --> 11:10:09,916
More licenses followed Harry Potter,
13189
11:10:06,720 --> 11:10:11,916
Spider-Man, Batman, Indiana Jones, and
13190
11:10:09,916 --> 11:10:13,596
later the newest Marvel Cinematic
13191
11:10:11,916 --> 11:10:15,200
Universe.
13192
11:10:13,596 --> 11:10:18,640
Even though LEGO learned that
13193
11:10:15,200 --> 11:10:21,916
storytelling sells, in 2004, losses were
13194
11:10:18,640 --> 11:10:24,400
mounting and survival was uncertain.
13195
11:10:21,916 --> 11:10:25,916
And then the company made a radical
13196
11:10:24,400 --> 11:10:28,240
decision.
13197
11:10:25,916 --> 11:10:30,640
For the first time in its history, the
13198
11:10:28,240 --> 11:10:34,640
company appointed a CEO from outside the
13199
11:10:30,640 --> 11:10:38,240
Christensen family, Jurgen Victor, a
13200
11:10:34,640 --> 11:10:42,160
35-year-old former McKenzie consultant.
13201
11:10:38,240 --> 11:10:45,756
He was calm, precise, analytical,
13202
11:10:42,160 --> 11:10:49,520
and brutally honest. His diagnosis was
13203
11:10:45,756 --> 11:10:51,360
simple. Lego had forgotten what made it
13204
11:10:49,520 --> 11:10:53,596
Lego.
13205
11:10:51,360 --> 11:10:55,840
Kutto cut the number of unique elements
13206
11:10:53,596 --> 11:10:58,240
by nearly 50%.
13207
11:10:55,840 --> 11:11:01,436
He sold off the theme parks. He shut
13208
11:10:58,240 --> 11:11:03,596
down unprofitable production facilities.
13209
11:11:01,436 --> 11:11:06,240
He centralized supply chains,
13210
11:11:03,596 --> 11:11:08,560
standardized materials, and brought back
13211
11:11:06,240 --> 11:11:11,360
discipline to the system. But more
13212
11:11:08,560 --> 11:11:14,916
important, he put the bread back at the
13213
11:11:11,360 --> 11:11:14,916
center of the company.
13214
11:11:16,720 --> 11:11:21,596
This turnaround didn't happen in
13215
11:11:18,560 --> 11:11:24,880
isolation. The global toy industry was
13216
11:11:21,596 --> 11:11:27,436
undergoing a seismic change. China was
13217
11:11:24,880 --> 11:11:30,000
producing nearly 75% of the world's
13218
11:11:27,436 --> 11:11:33,116
toys, being the largest manufacturing
13219
11:11:30,000 --> 11:11:35,200
consolidation in toy history.
13220
11:11:33,116 --> 11:11:37,756
Meanwhile, the United States had become
13221
11:11:35,200 --> 11:11:40,000
the single largest consumer, responsible
13222
11:11:37,756 --> 11:11:43,000
for nearly onethird of the global toy
13223
11:11:40,000 --> 11:11:43,000
spending.
13224
11:11:43,200 --> 11:11:50,560
By 2005, the toy market was worth close
13225
11:11:46,800 --> 11:11:53,680
to $80 billion US. But it was brutally
13226
11:11:50,560 --> 11:11:56,480
competitive as well. Seasonality was
13227
11:11:53,680 --> 11:11:59,116
extreme. Nearly half of the annual toy
13228
11:11:56,480 --> 11:12:01,680
sales occurred in just 3 months from
13229
11:11:59,116 --> 11:12:04,720
October to December.
13230
11:12:01,680 --> 11:12:06,880
Companies lived or died by Christmas.
13231
11:12:04,720 --> 11:12:09,680
Mattel was battling declining Barbie
13232
11:12:06,880 --> 11:12:11,116
sales. Hasbro was betting its future on
13233
11:12:09,680 --> 11:12:12,800
Transformers and board game
13234
11:12:11,116 --> 11:12:14,640
reinventions.
13235
11:12:12,800 --> 11:12:17,520
Electronics were eating market share
13236
11:12:14,640 --> 11:12:22,000
across every age group. In this
13237
11:12:17,520 --> 11:12:27,880
scenario, Lego rebuilt and refocused and
13238
11:12:22,000 --> 11:12:27,880
then began rising above all of them.
13239
11:12:31,116 --> 11:12:38,720
Between 2008 and 2015, LEGO entered a
13240
11:12:35,360 --> 11:12:41,596
new era, a renaissance driven by design,
13241
11:12:38,720 --> 11:12:43,756
storytelling, digital engagement, and
13242
11:12:41,596 --> 11:12:45,680
adult passion.
13243
11:12:43,756 --> 11:12:48,560
The company launched the ultimate
13244
11:12:45,680 --> 11:12:52,080
collector series, producing the largest,
13245
11:12:48,560 --> 11:12:54,320
most detailed models in toy history.
13246
11:12:52,080 --> 11:12:57,520
LEGO architecture brought landmarks to
13247
11:12:54,320 --> 11:13:00,080
coffee tables. Modular buildings turned
13248
11:12:57,520 --> 11:13:02,240
living rooms into miniature cities, and
13249
11:13:00,080 --> 11:13:05,360
adults were no longer hiding their Lego
13250
11:13:02,240 --> 11:13:07,756
hobby, but embracing it. My story with
13251
11:13:05,360 --> 11:13:10,000
Lego began in the early '9s when I was a
13252
11:13:07,756 --> 11:13:12,160
small child.
13253
11:13:10,000 --> 11:13:14,000
I started playing, but then I stopped
13254
11:13:12,160 --> 11:13:15,680
for a while.
13255
11:13:14,000 --> 11:13:17,840
This is what most of us want to do when
13256
11:13:15,680 --> 11:13:22,360
we are teenagers, to do other hobbies
13257
11:13:17,840 --> 11:13:22,360
and spend less time playing with Lego.
13258
11:13:22,960 --> 11:13:28,320
After that, when I was in my early 20s,
13259
11:13:24,880 --> 11:13:30,400
I started collecting Lego. I met people
13260
11:13:28,320 --> 11:13:32,960
from the Valencian community and founded
13261
11:13:30,400 --> 11:13:34,880
Valre.
13262
11:13:32,960 --> 11:13:37,436
That eventually led me to a television
13263
11:13:34,880 --> 11:13:39,680
show where I took part and won. From
13264
11:13:37,436 --> 11:13:43,080
there, companies began approaching me to
13265
11:13:39,680 --> 11:13:43,080
develop projects.
13266
11:13:44,480 --> 11:13:48,080
At first, this hadn't even occurred to
13267
11:13:46,400 --> 11:13:50,560
me,
13268
11:13:48,080 --> 11:13:52,800
but I started to see a growing demand.
13269
11:13:50,560 --> 11:13:54,960
Whether it was building a corporate kit,
13270
11:13:52,800 --> 11:13:58,240
like a transport company's truck, or
13271
11:13:54,960 --> 11:14:00,000
even a company's logistics headquarters,
13272
11:13:58,240 --> 11:14:02,000
this market opened up a professional
13273
11:14:00,000 --> 11:14:04,000
path for me.
13274
11:14:02,000 --> 11:14:07,436
It supports me financially, but more
13275
11:14:04,000 --> 11:14:09,360
importantly, it's deeply rewarding.
13276
11:14:07,436 --> 11:14:11,040
Many of these projects challenge me to
13277
11:14:09,360 --> 11:14:12,560
build things I would never choose on my
13278
11:14:11,040 --> 11:14:15,276
own.
13279
11:14:12,560 --> 11:14:17,200
But once a challenge is set, build this,
13280
11:14:15,276 --> 11:14:20,000
my mind immediately starts collecting
13281
11:14:17,200 --> 11:14:22,000
ideas, figuring out how to shape them
13282
11:14:20,000 --> 11:14:25,800
and bring the project to life in the
13283
11:14:22,000 --> 11:14:25,800
best possible way.
13284
11:14:32,400 --> 11:14:39,596
fan events, engineering cups, a global
13285
11:14:35,520 --> 11:14:43,116
movement emerged. By 2014, adults
13286
11:14:39,596 --> 11:14:45,596
accounted for nearly 1/3 of LEGO sales.
13287
11:14:43,116 --> 11:14:47,840
>> To anyone who thinks Lego is only for
13288
11:14:45,596 --> 11:14:49,436
children, I'd say come and see the
13289
11:14:47,840 --> 11:14:51,276
exhibition.
13290
11:14:49,436 --> 11:14:54,000
See what we're capable of creating with
13291
11:14:51,276 --> 11:14:58,000
Lego pieces and how imagination develops
13292
11:14:54,000 --> 11:15:00,160
in both children and adults.
13293
11:14:58,000 --> 11:15:03,040
Children work within certain limits and
13294
11:15:00,160 --> 11:15:05,680
see things differently, but adults with
13295
11:15:03,040 --> 11:15:08,320
a wider range of colors, shapes, and
13296
11:15:05,680 --> 11:15:11,520
ways to use the pieces can explore just
13297
11:15:08,320 --> 11:15:13,520
how much is possible.
13298
11:15:11,520 --> 11:15:16,400
>> It was a radical shift in the economics
13299
11:15:13,520 --> 11:15:18,320
of play. And then came the cultural
13300
11:15:16,400 --> 11:15:21,360
explosion.
13301
11:15:18,320 --> 11:15:24,880
In 2014, The Lego Movie shattered
13302
11:15:21,360 --> 11:15:27,756
expectations, earning nearly$500 million
13303
11:15:24,880 --> 11:15:30,640
US at the box office.
13304
11:15:27,756 --> 11:15:34,240
What started as a toy was now pop
13305
11:15:30,640 --> 11:15:36,400
culture. By the mid 2010s,
13306
11:15:34,240 --> 11:15:39,360
LEGO was the world's most valuable toy
13307
11:15:36,400 --> 11:15:42,080
company, even surpassing Mattel, Hasbro,
13308
11:15:39,360 --> 11:15:44,560
and every other competitor.
13309
11:15:42,080 --> 11:15:48,000
The brick that started it all was no
13310
11:15:44,560 --> 11:15:51,000
longer just a product. It was a global
13311
11:15:48,000 --> 11:15:51,000
icon.
13312
11:15:52,880 --> 11:15:57,200
The LEGO Group stands today as one of
13313
11:15:55,200 --> 11:15:59,200
the most efficient, profitable, and
13314
11:15:57,200 --> 11:16:01,756
culturally influential toy companies on
13315
11:15:59,200 --> 11:16:04,000
Earth. Its factories run with near
13316
11:16:01,756 --> 11:16:06,160
perfect precision.
13317
11:16:04,000 --> 11:16:09,276
Its design teams develop thousands of
13318
11:16:06,160 --> 11:16:11,276
prototypes each year. Its supply chain
13319
11:16:09,276 --> 11:16:14,160
delivers billions of bricks that must
13320
11:16:11,276 --> 11:16:16,080
all fit together flawlessly across
13321
11:16:14,160 --> 11:16:18,720
decades.
13322
11:16:16,080 --> 11:16:22,800
In a global toy market worth roughly
13323
11:16:18,720 --> 11:16:27,040
$120 billion a year, Lego commands
13324
11:16:22,800 --> 11:16:30,000
nearly 9% of all worldwide toy sales. No
13325
11:16:27,040 --> 11:16:32,800
other toy brand, not Barbie, not Marvel
13326
11:16:30,000 --> 11:16:34,960
figures, not Nintendo merchandise,
13327
11:16:32,800 --> 11:16:38,720
maintains such consistency across
13328
11:16:34,960 --> 11:16:40,720
continents, genders, and generations.
13329
11:16:38,720 --> 11:16:43,840
And unlike most toy companies that
13330
11:16:40,720 --> 11:16:45,200
outsource manufacturing, LEGO controls a
13331
11:16:43,840 --> 11:16:48,400
significant portion of its own
13332
11:16:45,200 --> 11:16:50,960
production with major hubs in Denmark,
13333
11:16:48,400 --> 11:16:52,960
Hungary, Mexico, China, and the Czech
13334
11:16:50,960 --> 11:16:55,680
Republic.
13335
11:16:52,960 --> 11:16:58,240
This vertical integration reduces risk,
13336
11:16:55,680 --> 11:17:00,160
stabilizes quality, and protects one of
13337
11:16:58,240 --> 11:17:03,436
the most important values in the
13338
11:17:00,160 --> 11:17:05,756
company's DNA, precision.
13339
11:17:03,436 --> 11:17:08,080
Every Lego brick must be manufactured
13340
11:17:05,756 --> 11:17:11,200
with tolerances thinner than a strand of
13341
11:17:08,080 --> 11:17:14,720
hair. If the clutch is too tight, the
13342
11:17:11,200 --> 11:17:17,840
model breaks. If it's too loose, towers
13343
11:17:14,720 --> 11:17:21,276
collapse. Across billions of pieces,
13344
11:17:17,840 --> 11:17:24,720
perfection is not an ambition. It is an
13345
11:17:21,276 --> 11:17:26,720
engineering reality for LEGO.
13346
11:17:24,720 --> 11:17:28,880
This level of detail gives the company
13347
11:17:26,720 --> 11:17:31,520
one of the highest brand trust ratings
13348
11:17:28,880 --> 11:17:34,080
in the world. Parents know the bricks
13349
11:17:31,520 --> 11:17:36,880
will last. Adults know the sets will
13350
11:17:34,080 --> 11:17:39,200
impress. Collectors know the investment
13351
11:17:36,880 --> 11:17:41,436
will hold value.
13352
11:17:39,200 --> 11:17:44,160
The modern toy market is a machine of
13353
11:17:41,436 --> 11:17:45,916
impulse, tradition, celebration, and
13354
11:17:44,160 --> 11:17:49,520
nostalgia.
13355
11:17:45,916 --> 11:17:53,360
In 2025, global spending on toys
13356
11:17:49,520 --> 11:17:56,400
approaches 120 billion, nearly double
13357
11:17:53,360 --> 11:17:58,160
what it was two decades earlier. The
13358
11:17:56,400 --> 11:18:00,720
United States remains the world's
13359
11:17:58,160 --> 11:18:03,840
largest consumer. accounting for roughly
13360
11:18:00,720 --> 11:18:05,916
onethird of global sales. A typical
13361
11:18:03,840 --> 11:18:09,596
American household with children may
13362
11:18:05,916 --> 11:18:12,560
spend $300 to $400 per child per year on
13363
11:18:09,596 --> 11:18:14,880
toys. This is more than five times the
13364
11:18:12,560 --> 11:18:17,360
global average.
13365
11:18:14,880 --> 11:18:19,596
Europe forms the second largest block
13366
11:18:17,360 --> 11:18:22,480
with strong purchasing power in Germany,
13367
11:18:19,596 --> 11:18:24,880
the United Kingdom, and France.
13368
11:18:22,480 --> 11:18:27,360
Asia-Pacific is rapidly growing,
13369
11:18:24,880 --> 11:18:30,320
especially in China, South Korea, and
13370
11:18:27,360 --> 11:18:33,040
Japan. driven by rising middle classes
13371
11:18:30,320 --> 11:18:35,436
and urban lifestyles.
13372
11:18:33,040 --> 11:18:38,720
But the most important shift of the last
13373
11:18:35,436 --> 11:18:41,720
decade is not geographic. It is
13374
11:18:38,720 --> 11:18:41,720
demographic.
13375
11:18:45,840 --> 11:18:50,960
Adults, once considered irrelevant to
13376
11:18:48,560 --> 11:18:53,756
the toy industry, are now one of the
13377
11:18:50,960 --> 11:18:56,880
most powerful forces. This growing
13378
11:18:53,756 --> 11:19:00,240
segment, commonly called the kid market,
13379
11:18:56,880 --> 11:19:03,116
now represents between 25 and 30% of all
13380
11:19:00,240 --> 11:19:05,680
toy purchases worldwide.
13381
11:19:03,116 --> 11:19:08,720
Adults buy toys for nostalgia, for
13382
11:19:05,680 --> 11:19:10,240
stress relief, for display, for
13383
11:19:08,720 --> 11:19:12,480
identity.
13384
11:19:10,240 --> 11:19:13,596
Lego is the undisputed champion of this
13385
11:19:12,480 --> 11:19:16,000
movement.
13386
11:19:13,596 --> 11:19:19,320
>> Unlike other hobbies, Lego gives me a
13387
11:19:16,000 --> 11:19:19,320
sense of calm.
13388
11:19:20,480 --> 11:19:25,200
It lets me take ideas from my mind,
13389
11:19:22,880 --> 11:19:27,840
bring them to life, think them through,
13390
11:19:25,200 --> 11:19:30,160
and simply enjoy the process.
13391
11:19:27,840 --> 11:19:33,276
>> Right now, I'm trying to instill that in
13392
11:19:30,160 --> 11:19:35,360
my son to enjoy himself, to learn to see
13393
11:19:33,276 --> 11:19:37,200
colors and shapes, and to understand
13394
11:19:35,360 --> 11:19:39,276
that with imagination, anything is
13395
11:19:37,200 --> 11:19:42,560
possible.
13396
11:19:39,276 --> 11:19:45,116
Its premium sets, Technic Hypercars,
13397
11:19:42,560 --> 11:19:47,840
Star Wars Ultimate Collector Series,
13398
11:19:45,116 --> 11:19:50,160
iconic landmarks, regularly exceed
13399
11:19:47,840 --> 11:19:52,400
prices of $30,500,
13400
11:19:50,160 --> 11:19:55,200
even $800.
13401
11:19:52,400 --> 11:19:57,040
They sell out within hours. They hold
13402
11:19:55,200 --> 11:19:59,840
aftermarket values like fine
13403
11:19:57,040 --> 11:20:02,080
collectibles. This adult segment has
13404
11:19:59,840 --> 11:20:05,200
reshaped the entire financial landscape
13405
11:20:02,080 --> 11:20:08,240
of the company. It provides stability
13406
11:20:05,200 --> 11:20:11,520
when children's trends shift. It creates
13407
11:20:08,240 --> 11:20:13,596
recurring revenue from loyal fans and it
13408
11:20:11,520 --> 11:20:16,560
strengthens LEGO's position as a
13409
11:20:13,596 --> 11:20:19,520
crossgenerational brand, something few
13410
11:20:16,560 --> 11:20:21,840
toy companies have ever achieved.
13411
11:20:19,520 --> 11:20:24,800
Seasonality still dictates much of the
13412
11:20:21,840 --> 11:20:27,040
global toy market. Every year, nearly
13413
11:20:24,800 --> 11:20:30,400
half of all toy sales occur between
13414
11:20:27,040 --> 11:20:33,276
October and December. Companies live or
13415
11:20:30,400 --> 11:20:36,480
die by holiday forecasting, inventory
13416
11:20:33,276 --> 11:20:39,276
strategy, and shipment timing. But LEGO
13417
11:20:36,480 --> 11:20:42,080
has become the exception. Adult
13418
11:20:39,276 --> 11:20:44,480
collectors buy year round. Digital
13419
11:20:42,080 --> 11:20:47,520
experiences drive sales outside the
13420
11:20:44,480 --> 11:20:50,880
holiday season. Licensed launches create
13421
11:20:47,520 --> 11:20:53,520
anticipation even in slow quarters.
13422
11:20:50,880 --> 11:20:55,520
LEGO has effectively freed itself or at
13423
11:20:53,520 --> 11:20:57,596
least partially from the seasonal
13424
11:20:55,520 --> 11:21:00,320
dependency that has defined the toy
13425
11:20:57,596 --> 11:21:03,276
industry for over a century.
13426
11:21:00,320 --> 11:21:06,080
The brick is physical, tangible,
13427
11:21:03,276 --> 11:21:08,960
mechanical. But LEGO's success in the
13428
11:21:06,080 --> 11:21:13,756
21st century extends into digital
13429
11:21:08,960 --> 11:21:16,080
worlds. Star Wars, Batman, Marvel. These
13430
11:21:13,756 --> 11:21:19,360
games defined an entire generation of
13431
11:21:16,080 --> 11:21:21,916
familyfriendly titles. They sold tens of
13432
11:21:19,360 --> 11:21:25,116
millions of copies. They introduced
13433
11:21:21,916 --> 11:21:28,640
humor, storytelling, and simplicity to a
13434
11:21:25,116 --> 11:21:30,720
medium often dominated by complexity.
13435
11:21:28,640 --> 11:21:33,756
For many children born after the year
13436
11:21:30,720 --> 11:21:37,596
2000, Lego was not discovered in a toy
13437
11:21:33,756 --> 11:21:40,480
box, but on a screen. The cinematic leap
13438
11:21:37,596 --> 11:21:43,276
came in 2014 when the Lego movie
13439
11:21:40,480 --> 11:21:46,080
premiered to global acclaim. It turned
13440
11:21:43,276 --> 11:21:48,720
nearly half a billion dollars. Most
13441
11:21:46,080 --> 11:21:52,000
importantly, it reframed Lego as a
13442
11:21:48,720 --> 11:21:54,320
cultural idea, not a product. The film
13443
11:21:52,000 --> 11:21:57,596
taught a global audience that creativity
13444
11:21:54,320 --> 11:21:59,680
matters, that imperfection is beautiful,
13445
11:21:57,596 --> 11:22:03,436
that building and rebuilding are not
13446
11:21:59,680 --> 11:22:06,480
failures, they are the process of play.
13447
11:22:03,436 --> 11:22:08,720
Lego Batman expanded the concept. Lego
13448
11:22:06,480 --> 11:22:12,080
Ninjago created an entirely new
13449
11:22:08,720 --> 11:22:14,160
generation of fans and Lego Masters on
13450
11:22:12,080 --> 11:22:16,400
television turned building into a
13451
11:22:14,160 --> 11:22:19,200
competitive art form.
13452
11:22:16,400 --> 11:22:22,480
The brand had moved beyond toys, beyond
13453
11:22:19,200 --> 11:22:25,040
stories, beyond bricks. It had become
13454
11:22:22,480 --> 11:22:28,040
part of the cultural grammar of the 21st
13455
11:22:25,040 --> 11:22:28,040
century.
13456
11:22:31,680 --> 11:22:36,080
Long before STEM became a global
13457
11:22:33,756 --> 11:22:39,040
movement, Lego was already teaching
13458
11:22:36,080 --> 11:22:42,720
children how to think like engineers.
13459
11:22:39,040 --> 11:22:45,200
In the 1990s, LEGO Mindstorms introduced
13460
11:22:42,720 --> 11:22:49,040
programmable robotics to students around
13461
11:22:45,200 --> 11:22:51,916
the world. Later sets, Weedoo, Spike
13462
11:22:49,040 --> 11:22:54,960
Prime, Boost, brought coding, sensors,
13463
11:22:51,916 --> 11:22:57,596
and motors into classrooms and homes.
13464
11:22:54,960 --> 11:23:00,080
Today, LEGO Education works with
13465
11:22:57,596 --> 11:23:02,080
governments, schools, and universities
13466
11:23:00,080 --> 11:23:05,596
to bring hands-on learning to millions
13467
11:23:02,080 --> 11:23:08,240
of students. The philosophy is simple.
13468
11:23:05,596 --> 11:23:10,640
Children learn best through play. This
13469
11:23:08,240 --> 11:23:13,840
approach shapes future engineers,
13470
11:23:10,640 --> 11:23:15,520
designers, and problem solvers. It helps
13471
11:23:13,840 --> 11:23:18,320
children experiment in ways that
13472
11:23:15,520 --> 11:23:21,276
textbooks cannot. And it continues
13473
11:23:18,320 --> 11:23:23,360
Olirk's belief that play is not a
13474
11:23:21,276 --> 11:23:26,080
distraction from learning, but the
13475
11:23:23,360 --> 11:23:28,080
foundation of it.
13476
11:23:26,080 --> 11:23:28,880
In a world increasingly focused on
13477
11:23:28,080 --> 11:23:30,960
sustainability.
13478
11:23:28,880 --> 11:23:32,880
>> From my experience, what makes Lego
13479
11:23:30,960 --> 11:23:35,756
different from other construction toys
13480
11:23:32,880 --> 11:23:38,080
is its growing commitment to inclusion.
13481
11:23:35,756 --> 11:23:39,436
In recent years, LEGO has actively
13482
11:23:38,080 --> 11:23:41,596
embraced people with different
13483
11:23:39,436 --> 11:23:43,596
abilities. For example, by including
13484
11:23:41,596 --> 11:23:46,320
figures in wheelchairs and releasing
13485
11:23:43,596 --> 11:23:48,080
sets in braille. These are things most
13486
11:23:46,320 --> 11:23:50,240
other brands simply don't offer, but
13487
11:23:48,080 --> 11:23:52,400
LEGO does.
13488
11:23:50,240 --> 11:23:54,400
In addition, LEGO is strongly committed
13489
11:23:52,400 --> 11:23:56,000
to the environment.
13490
11:23:54,400 --> 11:23:58,240
They're producing more and more pieces
13491
11:23:56,000 --> 11:24:00,160
using recycled plastic and replacing
13492
11:23:58,240 --> 11:24:02,960
plastic packaging with paper to reduce
13493
11:24:00,160 --> 11:24:05,520
waste, something other brands simply
13494
11:24:02,960 --> 11:24:08,640
don't do.
13495
11:24:05,520 --> 11:24:11,116
LEGO faces a unique challenge. Its
13496
11:24:08,640 --> 11:24:13,520
bricks are made to last forever. A
13497
11:24:11,116 --> 11:24:17,276
blessing for creativity, but a concern
13498
11:24:13,520 --> 11:24:19,360
in an era of plastic waste. In response,
13499
11:24:17,276 --> 11:24:21,200
LEGO has invested hundreds of millions
13500
11:24:19,360 --> 11:24:23,436
of dollars into developing more
13501
11:24:21,200 --> 11:24:26,080
sustainable materials.
13502
11:24:23,436 --> 11:24:29,276
Plant-based polyethylene is already used
13503
11:24:26,080 --> 11:24:32,320
for leaves and trees. Recycled PT
13504
11:24:29,276 --> 11:24:34,800
prototypes continue to advance.
13505
11:24:32,320 --> 11:24:38,320
Recycled PET prototypes continue to
13506
11:24:34,800 --> 11:24:41,840
advance. New polymer engineering aims to
13507
11:24:38,320 --> 11:24:44,480
create bricks as durable as ABS without
13508
11:24:41,840 --> 11:24:47,756
the environmental cost.
13509
11:24:44,480 --> 11:24:49,916
This transition is not simple. A Lego
13510
11:24:47,756 --> 11:24:52,640
brick must interlock with perfect
13511
11:24:49,916 --> 11:24:54,720
precision. A fraction of a millimeter
13512
11:24:52,640 --> 11:24:56,560
can make the difference between wonder
13513
11:24:54,720 --> 11:24:59,200
and frustration.
13514
11:24:56,560 --> 11:25:01,596
But the mission is clear. A toy that
13515
11:24:59,200 --> 11:25:04,800
lasts forever should also protect the
13516
11:25:01,596 --> 11:25:08,480
world it is played in. Play is not a
13517
11:25:04,800 --> 11:25:10,080
luxury. Play is exploration. Play is
13518
11:25:08,480 --> 11:25:12,320
curiosity.
13519
11:25:10,080 --> 11:25:14,160
Play is the earliest form of human
13520
11:25:12,320 --> 11:25:16,320
creativity.
13521
11:25:14,160 --> 11:25:18,880
From wooden ducks in a small Danish
13522
11:25:16,320 --> 11:25:20,960
workshop to interlocking bricks that
13523
11:25:18,880 --> 11:25:24,240
span generations
13524
11:25:20,960 --> 11:25:27,116
to movies, video games, robotics, and
13525
11:25:24,240 --> 11:25:29,756
global fan communities. LEGO has
13526
11:25:27,116 --> 11:25:33,520
remained loyal to a simple truth. When
13527
11:25:29,756 --> 11:25:37,200
we build, we grow. When we imagine, we
13528
11:25:33,520 --> 11:25:40,200
expand. When we play, we become more
13529
11:25:37,200 --> 11:25:40,200
human.
13530
11:25:44,160 --> 11:25:49,916
More than a century ago, a carpenter
13531
11:25:46,880 --> 11:25:53,040
rebuilt his workshop after a fire. He
13532
11:25:49,916 --> 11:25:55,596
rebuilt it again after another. Not
13533
11:25:53,040 --> 11:25:58,080
because it was easy, but because he
13534
11:25:55,596 --> 11:26:01,436
believed in the power of making things
13535
11:25:58,080 --> 11:26:03,520
and in the power of play. Today,
13536
11:26:01,436 --> 11:26:07,116
billions of creations have risen from
13537
11:26:03,520 --> 11:26:08,960
that belief. Cities, castles,
13538
11:26:07,116 --> 11:26:10,960
spaceships,
13539
11:26:08,960 --> 11:26:14,160
dreams that exist nowhere else but in
13540
11:26:10,960 --> 11:26:17,116
the minds of the people who build them.
13541
11:26:14,160 --> 11:26:20,000
Lego is not perfect. It has faced
13542
11:26:17,116 --> 11:26:24,160
crises, challenges, and impossible
13543
11:26:20,000 --> 11:26:26,240
decisions. But it endures through war,
13544
11:26:24,160 --> 11:26:29,040
through technological revolutions,
13545
11:26:26,240 --> 11:26:32,160
through economic storms. Because
13546
11:26:29,040 --> 11:26:34,080
imagination always endures.
13547
11:26:32,160 --> 11:26:36,880
And as long as there are hands reaching
13548
11:26:34,080 --> 11:26:40,000
for bricks, as long as there are minds
13549
11:26:36,880 --> 11:26:43,040
ready to create, the legacy of Ole
13550
11:26:40,000 --> 11:26:48,680
Christensen will continue.
13551
11:26:43,040 --> 11:26:48,680
Every dream starts with a single piece.
13552
11:28:14,880 --> 11:28:22,560
Jensen Huang, the software moat.
13553
11:28:19,200 --> 11:28:26,000
June 18th, 2024.
13554
11:28:22,560 --> 11:28:28,400
For a brief historic moment, the world
13555
11:28:26,000 --> 11:28:31,756
had a new king.
13556
11:28:28,400 --> 11:28:34,960
Jensen Huang, the co-founder and CEO of
13557
11:28:31,756 --> 11:28:38,240
Nvidia, stood at the peak of a $3.4
13558
11:28:34,960 --> 11:28:40,560
trillion mountain.
13559
11:28:38,240 --> 11:28:43,596
Analysts whispered that he wasn't just
13560
11:28:40,560 --> 11:28:47,200
leading a company. He was leading the
13561
11:28:43,596 --> 11:28:50,160
first entity destined for a $4 trillion
13562
11:28:47,200 --> 11:28:52,080
valuation.
13563
11:28:50,160 --> 11:28:55,596
But to understand the man in the leather
13564
11:28:52,080 --> 11:28:59,360
jacket, you cannot look at the triumph.
13565
11:28:55,596 --> 11:29:04,080
You must look at the fear. Behind the
13566
11:28:59,360 --> 11:29:07,360
250% revenue jumps and the soldout H100
13567
11:29:04,080 --> 11:29:09,596
backlogs lies a leader obsessed with the
13568
11:29:07,360 --> 11:29:11,276
cyclical trap.
13569
11:29:09,596 --> 11:29:12,880
In the 60-year history of
13570
11:29:11,276 --> 11:29:15,680
semiconductors,
13571
11:29:12,880 --> 11:29:19,756
giants like Texas Instruments, Intel,
13572
11:29:15,680 --> 11:29:22,800
and Samsung have all held the crown only
13573
11:29:19,756 --> 11:29:25,840
to see it slip away.
13574
11:29:22,800 --> 11:29:30,640
Jensen's mission is simple. Break the
13575
11:29:25,840 --> 11:29:33,756
cycle before it breaks him.
13576
11:29:30,640 --> 11:29:36,400
Flashback to September 1996.
13577
11:29:33,756 --> 11:29:38,720
The golden era of the internet is
13578
11:29:36,400 --> 11:29:42,720
dawning for everyone else but for
13579
11:29:38,720 --> 11:29:45,756
Nvidia. It is a death nail.
13580
11:29:42,720 --> 11:29:48,720
Their first chip, the NV1, is a
13581
11:29:45,756 --> 11:29:51,116
technical ghost rejected by Microsoft's
13582
11:29:48,720 --> 11:29:53,680
DirectX.
13583
11:29:51,116 --> 11:29:56,480
Jensen stands before a dwindling team
13584
11:29:53,680 --> 11:29:59,116
and delivers the most famous mantra in
13585
11:29:56,480 --> 11:30:03,040
Silicon Valley history.
13586
11:29:59,116 --> 11:30:06,640
We have exactly 30 days of oxygen left.
13587
11:30:03,040 --> 11:30:08,960
We are 30 days from bankruptcy.
13588
11:30:06,640 --> 11:30:11,360
How does a man go from cleaning toilets
13589
11:30:08,960 --> 11:30:13,360
in a Kentucky reform school to
13590
11:30:11,360 --> 11:30:16,560
controlling the foundational layer of
13591
11:30:13,360 --> 11:30:19,436
the global AI economy?
13592
11:30:16,560 --> 11:30:22,720
From a red leather booth at a Denny's to
13593
11:30:19,436 --> 11:30:25,040
a legal showdown in the US Supreme Court
13594
11:30:22,720 --> 11:30:26,800
over the very intellectual honesty of
13595
11:30:25,040 --> 11:30:29,436
his empire.
13596
11:30:26,800 --> 11:30:30,960
This is not just a story of silicon and
13597
11:30:29,436 --> 11:30:33,116
software.
13598
11:30:30,960 --> 11:30:35,360
This is the chronicle of the man who
13599
11:30:33,116 --> 11:30:36,960
decided to manufacture intelligence
13600
11:30:35,360 --> 11:30:40,560
itself.
13601
11:30:36,960 --> 11:30:44,000
This is Jensen Hang, the architect of
13602
11:30:40,560 --> 11:30:49,240
the digital brain.
13603
11:30:44,000 --> 11:30:49,240
Chapter 1. Forged in the chaos,
13604
11:30:49,436 --> 11:30:55,436
Nvidia was not born from abundance. Its
13605
11:30:52,880 --> 11:30:57,520
DNA was forged in the raw fires of
13606
11:30:55,436 --> 11:31:00,400
survival.
13607
11:30:57,520 --> 11:31:03,116
Jen's son, Huang, arrived in the United
13608
11:31:00,400 --> 11:31:06,480
States as a young migrant, but his
13609
11:31:03,116 --> 11:31:08,880
destination wasn't an elite prep school.
13610
11:31:06,480 --> 11:31:11,436
Due to a clerical misunderstanding by
13611
11:31:08,880 --> 11:31:14,640
his parents, he was sent to Onida
13612
11:31:11,436 --> 11:31:17,596
Baptist Institute in rural Kentucky, a
13613
11:31:14,640 --> 11:31:20,160
place that at the time functioned more
13614
11:31:17,596 --> 11:31:22,720
as a reform school for troubled youths
13615
11:31:20,160 --> 11:31:25,840
than a traditional academy.
13616
11:31:22,720 --> 11:31:27,916
At 9 years old, the future CEO of one of
13617
11:31:25,840 --> 11:31:30,480
the world's most valuable companies
13618
11:31:27,916 --> 11:31:33,840
wasn't coding. He was cleaning the
13619
11:31:30,480 --> 11:31:35,916
toilets of 150 teenagers every single
13620
11:31:33,840 --> 11:31:38,480
afternoon.
13621
11:31:35,916 --> 11:31:40,080
In his personal transcripts, Jensen
13622
11:31:38,480 --> 11:31:43,596
reflects on this with a chilling
13623
11:31:40,080 --> 11:31:46,000
stoicism. I didn't complain. I just
13624
11:31:43,596 --> 11:31:47,916
learned to work hard.
13625
11:31:46,000 --> 11:31:50,560
Bad boy learned the first law of
13626
11:31:47,916 --> 11:31:54,160
accelerated computing decades before it
13627
11:31:50,560 --> 11:31:56,720
existed. For a system to be efficient,
13628
11:31:54,160 --> 11:31:59,840
it must be able to process chaos under
13629
11:31:56,720 --> 11:32:02,960
extreme pressure.
13630
11:31:59,840 --> 11:32:05,360
By 15, Jensen was the most efficient
13631
11:32:02,960 --> 11:32:08,480
dishwasher and waiter at a Denny's in
13632
11:32:05,360 --> 11:32:10,880
Portland. I was incredibly shy, he
13633
11:32:08,480 --> 11:32:13,916
admits. But the chaos of the kitchen
13634
11:32:10,880 --> 11:32:16,400
forced me out of my shell.
13635
11:32:13,916 --> 11:32:20,080
It is no coincidence that Nvidia was
13636
11:32:16,400 --> 11:32:22,720
founded in 1993 inside a booth at that
13637
11:32:20,080 --> 11:32:25,040
very same restaurant chain.
13638
11:32:22,720 --> 11:32:27,756
While the world saw the dawn of the PC
13639
11:32:25,040 --> 11:32:31,360
as an office tool for spreadsheets,
13640
11:32:27,756 --> 11:32:35,360
Jensen, Chris Mahovsky, and Curtis Pim
13641
11:32:31,360 --> 11:32:39,596
saw a fatal weakness.
13642
11:32:35,360 --> 11:32:42,720
In 1993, Intel's generalpurpose CPU was
13643
11:32:39,596 --> 11:32:45,756
hitting a physical wall. If the future
13644
11:32:42,720 --> 11:32:47,756
of computing was visual and immersive,
13645
11:32:45,756 --> 11:32:49,756
the traditional serial architecture
13646
11:32:47,756 --> 11:32:51,520
would become the bottleneck of human
13647
11:32:49,756 --> 11:32:54,960
progress.
13648
11:32:51,520 --> 11:32:58,080
With only $40,000 in startup capital,
13649
11:32:54,960 --> 11:33:00,560
they founded Nvidia to chase a ghost,
13650
11:32:58,080 --> 11:33:02,480
accelerated computing.
13651
11:33:00,560 --> 11:33:05,520
They bet on a market the rest of the
13652
11:33:02,480 --> 11:33:07,360
industry dismissed as a niche for toys,
13653
11:33:05,520 --> 11:33:09,840
video games.
13654
11:33:07,360 --> 11:33:12,720
Before Jensen, video games were the
13655
11:33:09,840 --> 11:33:14,720
ultimate technological flywheel.
13656
11:33:12,720 --> 11:33:17,596
He knew that if you could master the
13657
11:33:14,720 --> 11:33:19,756
massive realtime rendering of pixels,
13658
11:33:17,596 --> 11:33:22,000
you could eventually simulate reality
13659
11:33:19,756 --> 11:33:24,480
itself.
13660
11:33:22,000 --> 11:33:26,720
But before they could reach that glory,
13661
11:33:24,480 --> 11:33:31,320
they had to survive their first massive
13662
11:33:26,720 --> 11:33:31,320
technical abyss, the NV1.
13663
11:33:38,640 --> 11:33:45,840
By 1995, Nvidia's first massive bet, the
13664
11:33:42,880 --> 11:33:48,400
NV1 chip, was ready to conquer the
13665
11:33:45,840 --> 11:33:51,436
market. But Jensen Huang had made a
13666
11:33:48,400 --> 11:33:53,040
catastrophic technical gamble.
13667
11:33:51,436 --> 11:33:56,320
At a time when the industry was
13668
11:33:53,040 --> 11:33:58,720
undecided, he bet on quadratic texture
13669
11:33:56,320 --> 11:34:02,000
mapping, a method that used curved
13670
11:33:58,720 --> 11:34:04,480
surfaces to create 3D images.
13671
11:34:02,000 --> 11:34:07,276
It was mathematically intelligent, but
13672
11:34:04,480 --> 11:34:08,880
it was a lonely path.
13673
11:34:07,276 --> 11:34:11,276
The industry hammer dropped when
13674
11:34:08,880 --> 11:34:14,720
Microsoft released its first DirectX
13675
11:34:11,276 --> 11:34:17,436
API. Microsoft chose triangles, not
13676
11:34:14,720 --> 11:34:19,116
quads, as the universal language for PC
13677
11:34:17,436 --> 11:34:20,960
gaming.
13678
11:34:19,116 --> 11:34:24,480
This decision rendered Nvidia's
13679
11:34:20,960 --> 11:34:27,680
technology instantly obsolete.
13680
11:34:24,480 --> 11:34:31,360
The NV1 wasn't just a failure, it was a
13681
11:34:27,680 --> 11:34:34,240
dead end. The company was bleeding cash,
13682
11:34:31,360 --> 11:34:39,560
and as Jensen famously put it, they were
13683
11:34:34,240 --> 11:34:39,560
staring at exactly 30 days of oxygen.
13684
11:34:40,080 --> 11:34:45,276
Nvidia's only lifeline was a strategic
13685
11:34:42,720 --> 11:34:47,116
contract with the Japanese giant Sega to
13686
11:34:45,276 --> 11:34:49,916
build the graphics engine for the Sega
13687
11:34:47,116 --> 11:34:52,880
Saturn. But Jensen was trapped in a
13688
11:34:49,916 --> 11:34:55,040
moral and business dilemma.
13689
11:34:52,880 --> 11:34:57,596
He knew that if they continued building
13690
11:34:55,040 --> 11:35:00,720
the chip for Sega using Nvidia's flawed
13691
11:34:57,596 --> 11:35:03,520
quad technology, Sega would lose the
13692
11:35:00,720 --> 11:35:06,720
console war to Sony's PlayStation and
13693
11:35:03,520 --> 11:35:09,680
Nvidia would eventually perish anyway.
13694
11:35:06,720 --> 11:35:11,436
In an act of intellectual honesty, or as
13695
11:35:09,680 --> 11:35:15,436
many at the time called corporate
13696
11:35:11,436 --> 11:35:19,040
suicide, Jensen flew to Japan. He sat
13697
11:35:15,436 --> 11:35:22,960
across from Shy Chiro Majiri, the CEO of
13698
11:35:19,040 --> 11:35:25,756
Sega, and told him the brutal truth. Our
13699
11:35:22,960 --> 11:35:28,240
technology is on the wrong path. If we
13700
11:35:25,756 --> 11:35:30,960
finish this project, you will produce an
13701
11:35:28,240 --> 11:35:33,840
inferior product.
13702
11:35:30,960 --> 11:35:36,240
Jensen asked for the impossible. He
13703
11:35:33,840 --> 11:35:38,720
asked Sega to terminate the contract,
13704
11:35:36,240 --> 11:35:41,680
but to pay the remaining $5 million
13705
11:35:38,720 --> 11:35:44,160
anyway. If you don't pay us, Jensen
13706
11:35:41,680 --> 11:35:46,080
pleaded. Nvidia will cease to exist
13707
11:35:44,160 --> 11:35:48,480
tomorrow.
13708
11:35:46,080 --> 11:35:52,000
To the astonishment of the tech world,
13709
11:35:48,480 --> 11:35:54,640
Idlimiri son agreed. He didn't pay for a
13710
11:35:52,000 --> 11:35:56,960
working chip. He paid for Jensen's
13711
11:35:54,640 --> 11:35:59,916
integrity.
13712
11:35:56,960 --> 11:36:02,320
That $5 million was the most expensive
13713
11:35:59,916 --> 11:36:05,116
oxygen in history.
13714
11:36:02,320 --> 11:36:07,520
To make it last, Jensen had to fire half
13715
11:36:05,116 --> 11:36:09,436
of his workforce. These weren't just
13716
11:36:07,520 --> 11:36:12,240
employees. They were friends who had
13717
11:36:09,436 --> 11:36:14,240
shared the Denny's dream. This trauma
13718
11:36:12,240 --> 11:36:17,520
institutionalized a permanent state of
13719
11:36:14,240 --> 11:36:20,320
emergency at Nvidia.
13720
11:36:17,520 --> 11:36:24,240
With the remaining team, Jensen funneled
13721
11:36:20,320 --> 11:36:27,116
every cent into the Reval 128. They
13722
11:36:24,240 --> 11:36:29,596
abandoned quads and embraced Microsoft's
13723
11:36:27,116 --> 11:36:35,116
triangles with a vengeance. When it
13724
11:36:29,596 --> 11:36:38,400
launched in 1997, the Revo 128 was 400%
13725
11:36:35,116 --> 11:36:41,596
faster than anything else on the market.
13726
11:36:38,400 --> 11:36:44,560
It was a dive catch of epic proportions.
13727
11:36:41,596 --> 11:36:47,520
Nvidia was no longer just a survivor. It
13728
11:36:44,560 --> 11:36:50,400
had become a hunter.
13729
11:36:47,520 --> 11:36:53,756
But as Jensen looked at the horizon, he
13730
11:36:50,400 --> 11:36:58,040
saw 70 rivals waiting to kill him. The
13731
11:36:53,756 --> 11:36:58,040
war was only beginning.
13732
11:37:03,200 --> 11:37:09,040
The success of the Reval 128 was a dive
13733
11:37:06,560 --> 11:37:11,520
catch, but it placed Nvidia in the
13734
11:37:09,040 --> 11:37:15,116
middle of a slaughterhouse.
13735
11:37:11,520 --> 11:37:17,276
By 1997, there were over 70 companies
13736
11:37:15,116 --> 11:37:18,880
fighting for the soul of the 3D graphics
13737
11:37:17,276 --> 11:37:20,880
market.
13738
11:37:18,880 --> 11:37:24,080
It was a commodity war where price
13739
11:37:20,880 --> 11:37:26,320
cutting was the only weapon for most.
13740
11:37:24,080 --> 11:37:28,560
Jensen Hang realized that if Nvidia
13741
11:37:26,320 --> 11:37:32,160
played by the industry's rules, they
13742
11:37:28,560 --> 11:37:35,520
would eventually be ground into dust.
13743
11:37:32,160 --> 11:37:37,436
He decided to break the laws of time.
13744
11:37:35,520 --> 11:37:40,800
The industry standard for developing a
13745
11:37:37,436 --> 11:37:44,000
new chip was 18 to 24 months. Following
13746
11:37:40,800 --> 11:37:46,320
the steady beat of Moore's law, Jensen
13747
11:37:44,000 --> 11:37:49,360
gathered his engineers and imposed a
13748
11:37:46,320 --> 11:37:52,000
suicidal mandate. Nvidia would release a
13749
11:37:49,360 --> 11:37:55,756
brand new groundbreaking architecture
13750
11:37:52,000 --> 11:37:57,680
every 6 months.
13751
11:37:55,756 --> 11:37:59,276
It was a strategy of relentless
13752
11:37:57,680 --> 11:38:02,720
execution.
13753
11:37:59,276 --> 11:38:05,916
By the time a competitor like 3dfx or S3
13754
11:38:02,720 --> 11:38:08,960
could react to one Nvidia chip, Jensen
13755
11:38:05,916 --> 11:38:11,116
had already launched two more. This
13756
11:38:08,960 --> 11:38:13,276
forced the competition into a permanent
13757
11:38:11,116 --> 11:38:16,240
state of obsolescence.
13758
11:38:13,276 --> 11:38:18,640
To achieve this, Nvidia had to reinvent
13759
11:38:16,240 --> 11:38:21,200
its internal engineering, running
13760
11:38:18,640 --> 11:38:23,276
multiple design teams in parallel. A
13761
11:38:21,200 --> 11:38:25,200
massive financial risk that pushed the
13762
11:38:23,276 --> 11:38:29,756
company to the edge of its operational
13763
11:38:25,200 --> 11:38:35,840
capacity. In 1999, the war reached its
13764
11:38:29,756 --> 11:38:38,480
climax. Nvidia released the GeForce 256.
13765
11:38:35,840 --> 11:38:40,720
Jensen didn't just market it as a faster
13766
11:38:38,480 --> 11:38:44,800
card. He coined a term that would
13767
11:38:40,720 --> 11:38:47,680
redefine computing history, the GPU,
13768
11:38:44,800 --> 11:38:50,800
graphics processing unit. This wasn't
13769
11:38:47,680 --> 11:38:52,480
just branding. Technically, the GeForce
13770
11:38:50,800 --> 11:38:54,400
256
13771
11:38:52,480 --> 11:38:56,400
moved the transform and lighting
13772
11:38:54,400 --> 11:38:59,756
calculations, the most heavy
13773
11:38:56,400 --> 11:39:02,640
mathematical lifting of 3D off the CPU
13774
11:38:59,756 --> 11:39:05,116
and onto the chip itself. It was the
13775
11:39:02,640 --> 11:39:07,596
birth of a new era.
13776
11:39:05,116 --> 11:39:09,520
This performance leap was so massive
13777
11:39:07,596 --> 11:39:11,520
that Nvidia secured the prestigious
13778
11:39:09,520 --> 11:39:15,436
contract for the original Microsoft
13779
11:39:11,520 --> 11:39:17,916
Xbox, receiving a crucial $200 million
13780
11:39:15,436 --> 11:39:21,040
advance.
13781
11:39:17,916 --> 11:39:23,680
The 6-month cycle worked. By the early
13782
11:39:21,040 --> 11:39:28,000
2000s, the 70 competitors had been
13783
11:39:23,680 --> 11:39:30,880
reduced to just two, Nvidia and ATI.
13784
11:39:28,000 --> 11:39:33,200
In a final act of dominance, Nvidia
13785
11:39:30,880 --> 11:39:37,756
acquired the assets of its former idol
13786
11:39:33,200 --> 11:39:40,960
and arch rival 3DFX in 2000.
13787
11:39:37,756 --> 11:39:44,480
Jensen had cleared the board. He was the
13788
11:39:40,960 --> 11:39:47,116
undisputed king of gaming. But at the
13789
11:39:44,480 --> 11:39:48,880
very moment of his greatest triumph, he
13790
11:39:47,116 --> 11:39:51,596
began to look at the higherformance
13791
11:39:48,880 --> 11:39:54,000
computing market. He realized that the
13792
11:39:51,596 --> 11:39:56,960
GPU's massive parallel math could do
13793
11:39:54,000 --> 11:40:00,000
more than just draw pixels. It could
13794
11:39:56,960 --> 11:40:03,436
solve the world's most complex problems.
13795
11:40:00,000 --> 11:40:07,800
The seeds of CUDA and the $10 billion
13796
11:40:03,436 --> 11:40:07,800
gamble were being planted.
13797
11:40:13,116 --> 11:40:19,916
By 2006, Nvidia was the undisputed king
13798
11:40:16,800 --> 11:40:22,400
of the gaming world. But Jensen Huang
13799
11:40:19,916 --> 11:40:24,640
was restless. He realized that the same
13800
11:40:22,400 --> 11:40:27,276
parallel processing power that rendered
13801
11:40:24,640 --> 11:40:29,200
pixels for World of Warcraft could be
13802
11:40:27,276 --> 11:40:31,680
used to solve the world's most complex
13803
11:40:29,200 --> 11:40:35,360
mathematical problems.
13804
11:40:31,680 --> 11:40:38,080
He launched CUDA, compute unified device
13805
11:40:35,360 --> 11:40:41,520
architecture. It was a declaration of
13806
11:40:38,080 --> 11:40:44,400
war against the CPUcentric world.
13807
11:40:41,520 --> 11:40:47,200
The goal was simple yet insane.
13808
11:40:44,400 --> 11:40:50,080
Transform every NVIDIA GPU into a
13809
11:40:47,200 --> 11:40:52,160
generalpurpose supercomput.
13810
11:40:50,080 --> 11:40:56,000
But this decision came with a staggering
13811
11:40:52,160 --> 11:40:58,480
cost. Jensen mandated that every single
13812
11:40:56,000 --> 11:41:00,640
GPU Nvidia manufactured from the
13813
11:40:58,480 --> 11:41:03,276
high-end workstation cards to the
13814
11:41:00,640 --> 11:41:05,756
cheapest laptop chips must include the
13815
11:41:03,276 --> 11:41:08,160
extra transistors and hardware logic to
13816
11:41:05,756 --> 11:41:11,756
support CUDA.
13817
11:41:08,160 --> 11:41:14,320
Wall Street was horrified.
13818
11:41:11,756 --> 11:41:17,840
For nearly a decade, Nvidia spent
13819
11:41:14,320 --> 11:41:21,116
billions, estimated at over $10 billion
13820
11:41:17,840 --> 11:41:24,320
in cumulative R&D on a software platform
13821
11:41:21,116 --> 11:41:26,480
that almost no one was using. Profit
13822
11:41:24,320 --> 11:41:28,960
margins, which once sat comfortably
13823
11:41:26,480 --> 11:41:30,880
high, were sacrificed at the altar of
13824
11:41:28,960 --> 11:41:33,840
this vision.
13825
11:41:30,880 --> 11:41:37,360
Analysts mocked the strategy, calling it
13826
11:41:33,840 --> 11:41:40,160
the bridge to nowhere. During the 2008
13827
11:41:37,360 --> 11:41:42,800
financial crisis, Nvidia's market cap
13828
11:41:40,160 --> 11:41:45,916
plummeted and the company was once again
13829
11:41:42,800 --> 11:41:47,596
staring into the abyss.
13830
11:41:45,916 --> 11:41:50,480
But Jensen wasn't just building
13831
11:41:47,596 --> 11:41:53,520
hardware. He was building a software
13832
11:41:50,480 --> 11:41:56,080
moat. He sent Nvidia engineers to
13833
11:41:53,520 --> 11:41:58,240
universities around the world, helping
13834
11:41:56,080 --> 11:42:00,320
professors teach parallel programming
13835
11:41:58,240 --> 11:42:02,880
using CUDA.
13836
11:42:00,320 --> 11:42:05,520
He was seeding the ground. While
13837
11:42:02,880 --> 11:42:08,480
competitors like Intel and AMD focused
13838
11:42:05,520 --> 11:42:11,040
on making faster chips, Jensen was
13839
11:42:08,480 --> 11:42:13,360
building an entire language.
13840
11:42:11,040 --> 11:42:15,916
By the time a developer learned CUDA,
13841
11:42:13,360 --> 11:42:18,000
they were locked in. Switching to a
13842
11:42:15,916 --> 11:42:20,400
competitor wouldn't just mean buying a
13843
11:42:18,000 --> 11:42:23,840
new chip. It would mean rewriting
13844
11:42:20,400 --> 11:42:26,880
millions of lines of code.
13845
11:42:23,840 --> 11:42:29,596
Year after year, Jensen defended CUDA in
13846
11:42:26,880 --> 11:42:31,680
boardrooms and earning calls. He
13847
11:42:29,596 --> 11:42:34,000
practiced what he calls long-term
13848
11:42:31,680 --> 11:42:36,800
commitment to a vision, even when the
13849
11:42:34,000 --> 11:42:39,200
data didn't yet support it. He was
13850
11:42:36,800 --> 11:42:40,720
waiting for a killer app for accelerated
13851
11:42:39,200 --> 11:42:43,116
computing.
13852
11:42:40,720 --> 11:42:45,596
He didn't know what it would be. But he
13853
11:42:43,116 --> 11:42:48,000
knew that as data grew exponentially,
13854
11:42:45,596 --> 11:42:50,080
the serial processing of the CPU would
13855
11:42:48,000 --> 11:42:52,480
eventually fail.
13856
11:42:50,080 --> 11:42:54,320
The silence of the Cuda winter was about
13857
11:42:52,480 --> 11:42:57,276
to be broken.
13858
11:42:54,320 --> 11:43:00,480
In a lab at the University of Toronto, a
13859
11:42:57,276 --> 11:43:02,960
PhD student named Alex Kreski was about
13860
11:43:00,480 --> 11:43:06,000
to feed a neural network called AlexNet
13861
11:43:02,960 --> 11:43:08,400
into those Nvidia GPUs.
13862
11:43:06,000 --> 11:43:11,520
The big bang of artificial intelligence
13863
11:43:08,400 --> 11:43:13,916
was seconds away, and Jensen Huang was
13864
11:43:11,520 --> 11:43:18,360
the only person on Earth who had already
13865
11:43:13,916 --> 11:43:18,360
built the engine to power it.
13866
11:43:23,840 --> 11:43:27,756
The year was 2012.
13867
11:43:26,160 --> 11:43:30,720
While the world saw just another
13868
11:43:27,756 --> 11:43:32,880
academic competition, Jensen Huang saw
13869
11:43:30,720 --> 11:43:34,480
the spark that would ignite a global
13870
11:43:32,880 --> 11:43:37,756
revolution.
13871
11:43:34,480 --> 11:43:41,116
A neural network called AlexNet, powered
13872
11:43:37,756 --> 11:43:44,400
by Nvidia GPUs, crushed the competition
13873
11:43:41,116 --> 11:43:46,960
in image recognition. It was the big
13874
11:43:44,400 --> 11:43:49,756
bang of deep learning.
13875
11:43:46,960 --> 11:43:51,840
Jensen didn't just celebrate, he pivoted
13876
11:43:49,756 --> 11:43:54,160
the entire company.
13877
11:43:51,840 --> 11:43:57,436
He realized that the $10 billion gamble
13878
11:43:54,160 --> 11:44:00,240
on CUDA had finally found its soul,
13879
11:43:57,436 --> 11:44:02,560
artificial intelligence.
13880
11:44:00,240 --> 11:44:04,720
This pivot transformed Nvidia from a
13881
11:44:02,560 --> 11:44:06,880
graphics card company into the
13882
11:44:04,720 --> 11:44:09,916
foundational engine of the world's most
13883
11:44:06,880 --> 11:44:11,756
powerful data centers.
13884
11:44:09,916 --> 11:44:14,880
Jensen's vision was no longer about
13885
11:44:11,756 --> 11:44:16,400
drawing pixels. It was about generative
13886
11:44:14,880 --> 11:44:19,200
AI.
13887
11:44:16,400 --> 11:44:20,720
By the time Chat GPT launched in late
13888
11:44:19,200 --> 11:44:23,436
2022,
13889
11:44:20,720 --> 11:44:25,200
Nvidia didn't just have a head start.
13890
11:44:23,436 --> 11:44:28,200
They were the only ones at the starting
13891
11:44:25,200 --> 11:44:28,200
line.
13892
11:44:28,240 --> 11:44:33,040
Jensen acted with a speed that terrified
13893
11:44:30,480 --> 11:44:36,080
his competitors. He didn't just wait for
13894
11:44:33,040 --> 11:44:37,756
orders. He re-engineered Nvidia's entire
13895
11:44:36,080 --> 11:44:40,720
road map.
13896
11:44:37,756 --> 11:44:43,436
In 2016, he personally delivered the
13897
11:44:40,720 --> 11:44:46,240
first Nvidia DGX1,
13898
11:44:43,436 --> 11:44:49,040
the world's first AI supercomput in a
13899
11:44:46,240 --> 11:44:53,116
box to a then small nonprofit called
13900
11:44:49,040 --> 11:44:56,680
Open AAI. He was very clear this will
13901
11:44:53,116 --> 11:44:56,680
change the world.
13902
11:44:57,360 --> 11:45:00,720
Technically, this period was about
13903
11:44:59,200 --> 11:45:03,116
specialization.
13904
11:45:00,720 --> 11:45:05,916
Nvidia began adding tensor cores to its
13905
11:45:03,116 --> 11:45:07,596
chips. These weren't for graphics. They
13906
11:45:05,916 --> 11:45:09,520
were designed specifically for the deep
13907
11:45:07,596 --> 11:45:11,276
learning math that powers neural
13908
11:45:09,520 --> 11:45:13,200
networks.
13909
11:45:11,276 --> 11:45:15,756
Nvidia was no longer just making a
13910
11:45:13,200 --> 11:45:17,916
faster graphics card. It was building a
13911
11:45:15,756 --> 11:45:21,916
specialized brain.
13912
11:45:17,916 --> 11:45:24,240
By 2017, the momentum was unstoppable.
13913
11:45:21,916 --> 11:45:26,400
Every major tech giant was building AI
13914
11:45:24,240 --> 11:45:28,640
labs and they all had one thing in
13915
11:45:26,400 --> 11:45:30,320
common. They were built on Nvidia's
13916
11:45:28,640 --> 11:45:32,560
stack.
13917
11:45:30,320 --> 11:45:35,200
This was the era when the software mode
13918
11:45:32,560 --> 11:45:36,640
became a fortress. Thousands of
13919
11:45:35,200 --> 11:45:39,916
researchers were now writing their
13920
11:45:36,640 --> 11:45:41,840
doctoral thesis on CUDA.
13921
11:45:39,916 --> 11:45:44,240
If a competitor wanted to challenge
13922
11:45:41,840 --> 11:45:46,800
Nvidia, they wouldn't just need a better
13923
11:45:44,240 --> 11:45:49,360
chip. They would have to convince the
13924
11:45:46,800 --> 11:45:52,240
world's brightest minds to forget
13925
11:45:49,360 --> 11:45:54,960
everything they had learned.
13926
11:45:52,240 --> 11:45:58,160
But as the AI revolution took hold, an
13927
11:45:54,960 --> 11:46:00,640
unexpected shadow emerged. A new craze
13928
11:45:58,160 --> 11:46:03,200
called Bitcoin and Ethereum began to
13929
11:46:00,640 --> 11:46:06,320
consume Nvidia's supply.
13930
11:46:03,200 --> 11:46:10,000
To the world, Nvidia looked invincible,
13931
11:46:06,320 --> 11:46:11,680
but internally Jensen was wary. Jensen
13932
11:46:10,000 --> 11:46:13,200
knew that every bubble eventually
13933
11:46:11,680 --> 11:46:15,596
bursts.
13934
11:46:13,200 --> 11:46:17,916
This period of explosive accidental
13935
11:46:15,596 --> 11:46:21,040
growth from crypto miners was creating a
13936
11:46:17,916 --> 11:46:23,276
shadow over the company's true mission,
13937
11:46:21,040 --> 11:46:26,160
setting the stage for a highstakes legal
13938
11:46:23,276 --> 11:46:28,080
battle over corporate transparency and a
13939
11:46:26,160 --> 11:46:32,040
financial storm that would test the very
13940
11:46:28,080 --> 11:46:32,040
foundations of his leadership.
13941
11:46:35,756 --> 11:46:41,756
In 2018, Nvidia was riding a wave that
13942
11:46:39,116 --> 11:46:44,880
looked like a miracle, but felt like a
13943
11:46:41,756 --> 11:46:46,960
mirage. The explosion of cryptocurrency
13944
11:46:44,880 --> 11:46:49,596
mining had created an insatiable hunger
13945
11:46:46,960 --> 11:46:52,240
for GeForce cards.
13946
11:46:49,596 --> 11:46:55,200
To the outside world, Nvidia's revenue
13947
11:46:52,240 --> 11:46:57,436
was reaching historic heights. However,
13948
11:46:55,200 --> 11:47:00,320
beneath the surface, a dangerous
13949
11:46:57,436 --> 11:47:02,320
ambiguity was growing. Jensen Huang
13950
11:47:00,320 --> 11:47:05,040
insisted that the growth was driven by a
13951
11:47:02,320 --> 11:47:08,960
gaming renaissance, but the reality was
13952
11:47:05,040 --> 11:47:11,040
more volatile. The mirage evaporated in
13953
11:47:08,960 --> 11:47:13,840
late 2018.
13954
11:47:11,040 --> 11:47:17,360
The crypto winter arrived and the demand
13955
11:47:13,840 --> 11:47:19,276
for mining chips vanished overnight.
13956
11:47:17,360 --> 11:47:21,596
Nvidia was left with a massive surplus
13957
11:47:19,276 --> 11:47:24,240
of inventory and the market's reaction
13958
11:47:21,596 --> 11:47:28,480
was brutal. The company's stock price
13959
11:47:24,240 --> 11:47:31,040
plummeted by 28% in a single day.
13960
11:47:28,480 --> 11:47:35,040
The invincible architect of AI was
13961
11:47:31,040 --> 11:47:36,800
suddenly facing a crisis of credibility.
13962
11:47:35,040 --> 11:47:38,480
This financial collapse ignited a
13963
11:47:36,800 --> 11:47:40,400
highstakes legal battle that would
13964
11:47:38,480 --> 11:47:42,400
eventually reach the steps of the US
13965
11:47:40,400 --> 11:47:44,720
Supreme Court.
13966
11:47:42,400 --> 11:47:47,200
A group of institutional investors filed
13967
11:47:44,720 --> 11:47:49,680
a class action lawsuit alleging that
13968
11:47:47,200 --> 11:47:52,560
Jensen Hang had deliberately misled the
13969
11:47:49,680 --> 11:47:55,360
market. The core of the case rested on a
13970
11:47:52,560 --> 11:47:59,276
single devastating word,
13971
11:47:55,360 --> 11:48:01,756
scient, the intent to deceive.
13972
11:47:59,276 --> 11:48:03,756
The accusation was sharp. Investors
13973
11:48:01,756 --> 11:48:06,000
claimed that internal Nvidia reports
13974
11:48:03,756 --> 11:48:08,480
clearly showed over a billion dollars in
13975
11:48:06,000 --> 11:48:11,276
revenue attributed to gamers was
13976
11:48:08,480 --> 11:48:13,520
actually coming from crypto miners.
13977
11:48:11,276 --> 11:48:15,756
Jensen fought back, defending his
13978
11:48:13,520 --> 11:48:17,840
intellectual honesty and arguing that
13979
11:48:15,756 --> 11:48:20,880
the expert opinions used against him
13980
11:48:17,840 --> 11:48:23,276
were nothing more than speculation.
13981
11:48:20,880 --> 11:48:25,596
This battle known as petition number
13982
11:48:23,276 --> 11:48:27,680
23-970
13983
11:48:25,596 --> 11:48:30,400
became a landmark moment for Silicon
13984
11:48:27,680 --> 11:48:32,400
Valley, questioning how much a CEO must
13985
11:48:30,400 --> 11:48:34,240
disclose when their technology
13986
11:48:32,400 --> 11:48:37,436
accidentally conquers a market they
13987
11:48:34,240 --> 11:48:39,840
didn't intend to lead.
13988
11:48:37,436 --> 11:48:41,680
While lawyers argued in Washington,
13989
11:48:39,840 --> 11:48:44,480
Jensen was already looking past the
13990
11:48:41,680 --> 11:48:46,880
wreckage. He didn't let the legal storm
13991
11:48:44,480 --> 11:48:49,436
or the inventory crisis slowed down his
13992
11:48:46,880 --> 11:48:52,000
ultimate plan. He doubled down on the
13993
11:48:49,436 --> 11:48:54,640
data center, acquiring Melanox for $7
13994
11:48:52,000 --> 11:48:56,400
billion to control the highways between
13995
11:48:54,640 --> 11:48:58,400
his chips.
13996
11:48:56,400 --> 11:49:00,960
He was preparing for a world where AI
13997
11:48:58,400 --> 11:49:02,960
wouldn't just be a research project, but
13998
11:49:00,960 --> 11:49:04,640
the operating system of the entire
13999
11:49:02,960 --> 11:49:07,360
planet.
14000
11:49:04,640 --> 11:49:09,840
The storm of 2018 had been a warning.
14001
11:49:07,360 --> 11:49:13,560
The era of generative AI was about to
14002
11:49:09,840 --> 11:49:13,560
provide the answer.
14003
11:49:17,360 --> 11:49:22,160
By 2022,
14004
11:49:19,276 --> 11:49:24,400
the world had changed. The launch of
14005
11:49:22,160 --> 11:49:27,276
Chad GPT signaled the arrival of the
14006
11:49:24,400 --> 11:49:30,560
generative AI era, and Nvidia was the
14007
11:49:27,276 --> 11:49:32,640
only company prepared to power it.
14008
11:49:30,560 --> 11:49:35,596
But as Jensen Huang stood on the brink
14009
11:49:32,640 --> 11:49:38,800
of total market dominance, a new wall
14010
11:49:35,596 --> 11:49:41,756
was built, not by a competitor, but by
14011
11:49:38,800 --> 11:49:44,000
the US government. Washington imposed
14012
11:49:41,756 --> 11:49:47,040
strict export controls on high-end AI
14013
11:49:44,000 --> 11:49:49,436
chips. For Nvidia, the stakes were
14014
11:49:47,040 --> 11:49:51,360
astronomical.
14015
11:49:49,436 --> 11:49:54,320
According to the geographical revenue
14016
11:49:51,360 --> 11:49:57,596
data, China accounted for approximately
14017
11:49:54,320 --> 11:49:59,436
20% to 25% of the company's total
14018
11:49:57,596 --> 11:50:01,840
business.
14019
11:49:59,436 --> 11:50:04,320
Overnight, Jensen had to navigate a
14020
11:50:01,840 --> 11:50:06,160
geopolitical minefield, redesigning
14021
11:50:04,320 --> 11:50:08,320
chips specifically to comply with
14022
11:50:06,160 --> 11:50:10,160
regulations while trying to keep his
14023
11:50:08,320 --> 11:50:12,400
most important market from slipping
14024
11:50:10,160 --> 11:50:14,640
away.
14025
11:50:12,400 --> 11:50:16,640
Jensen's answer to the geopolitical and
14026
11:50:14,640 --> 11:50:20,560
technical pressure was the Blackwall
14027
11:50:16,640 --> 11:50:23,680
architecture. If the H100 was a spark,
14028
11:50:20,560 --> 11:50:27,116
Blackwell was a sun. Packing an
14029
11:50:23,680 --> 11:50:29,040
incredible 208 billion transistors, it
14030
11:50:27,116 --> 11:50:32,800
delivered up to 30 times the performance
14031
11:50:29,040 --> 11:50:34,720
of its predecessor for certain AI tasks.
14032
11:50:32,800 --> 11:50:37,520
But Blackwell represented a deeper
14033
11:50:34,720 --> 11:50:40,480
strategic shift. Nvidia was no longer
14034
11:50:37,520 --> 11:50:43,360
just a chipmaker.
14035
11:50:40,480 --> 11:50:44,960
Jensen was now building entire AI
14036
11:50:43,360 --> 11:50:47,116
factories.
14037
11:50:44,960 --> 11:50:49,520
By integrating Melanox's networking
14038
11:50:47,116 --> 11:50:51,520
technology, he controlled the highways
14039
11:50:49,520 --> 11:50:53,520
that allowed thousands of chips to talk
14040
11:50:51,520 --> 11:50:56,080
to each other as if they were a single
14041
11:50:53,520 --> 11:50:58,400
giant brain.
14042
11:50:56,080 --> 11:51:00,240
This system on a cluster approach meant
14043
11:50:58,400 --> 11:51:02,720
that even if a competitor produced a
14044
11:51:00,240 --> 11:51:04,400
faster individual chip, they couldn't
14045
11:51:02,720 --> 11:51:07,436
compete with the sheer efficiency of the
14046
11:51:04,400 --> 11:51:10,080
Nvidia ecosystem.
14047
11:51:07,436 --> 11:51:13,276
The financial results were staggering.
14048
11:51:10,080 --> 11:51:17,596
By early 2024, Nvidia's data center
14049
11:51:13,276 --> 11:51:19,116
revenue had surged to over 47 billion, a
14050
11:51:17,596 --> 11:51:22,240
217%
14051
11:51:19,116 --> 11:51:24,800
increase in a single year. The company
14052
11:51:22,240 --> 11:51:27,360
was operating with 78.4%
14053
11:51:24,800 --> 11:51:29,840
gross margins, profit levels usually
14054
11:51:27,360 --> 11:51:32,320
reserved for software giants, not
14055
11:51:29,840 --> 11:51:36,080
hardware manufacturers.
14056
11:51:32,320 --> 11:51:39,360
On June 18th, 2024, Nvidia became the
14057
11:51:36,080 --> 11:51:42,240
most valuable company on the planet.
14058
11:51:39,360 --> 11:51:45,436
Yet, even as he stood at the summit,
14059
11:51:42,240 --> 11:51:48,240
Jensen refused to relax. He looked the
14060
11:51:45,436 --> 11:51:50,960
60-year history of semiconductors, the
14061
11:51:48,240 --> 11:51:53,596
rise and fall of Intel, the cycles of
14062
11:51:50,960 --> 11:51:55,756
Samsung and TI, and he knew that being
14063
11:51:53,596 --> 11:51:59,200
on top was the most dangerous place to
14064
11:51:55,756 --> 11:52:02,480
be. His next challenge wouldn't just be
14065
11:51:59,200 --> 11:52:06,116
about chips. It would be about giving AI
14066
11:52:02,480 --> 11:52:06,116
a physical body.
14067
11:52:09,916 --> 11:52:15,116
In 2024, Jensen Huang had already
14068
11:52:12,880 --> 11:52:17,436
conquered the digital world, but his
14069
11:52:15,116 --> 11:52:20,160
eyes were fixed on a new frontier, the
14070
11:52:17,436 --> 11:52:22,960
physical one. He declared that the next
14071
11:52:20,160 --> 11:52:24,800
wave of AI would be physical AI.
14072
11:52:22,960 --> 11:52:27,840
Intelligence that doesn't just process
14073
11:52:24,800 --> 11:52:29,756
text or images, but understands the laws
14074
11:52:27,840 --> 11:52:32,000
of physics.
14075
11:52:29,756 --> 11:52:35,040
Everything that moves from autonomous
14076
11:52:32,000 --> 11:52:38,160
cars to humanoid robots would eventually
14077
11:52:35,040 --> 11:52:40,560
be powered by an Nvidia brain.
14078
11:52:38,160 --> 11:52:44,240
This identifies it as the third pillar
14079
11:52:40,560 --> 11:52:47,276
of Nvidia's future. To win this race,
14080
11:52:44,240 --> 11:52:49,360
Jensen isn't just building chips. He is
14081
11:52:47,276 --> 11:52:51,520
building the omniverse.
14082
11:52:49,360 --> 11:52:53,596
This is a digital world where robots are
14083
11:52:51,520 --> 11:52:56,480
trained millions of times in a virtual
14084
11:52:53,596 --> 11:52:58,640
simulation before they ever step into a
14085
11:52:56,480 --> 11:53:01,360
real factory.
14086
11:52:58,640 --> 11:53:03,436
By the time a robot starts its job, it
14087
11:53:01,360 --> 11:53:06,640
has already lived a thousand lifetimes
14088
11:53:03,436 --> 11:53:09,360
of experience. Jensen's strategy is a
14089
11:53:06,640 --> 11:53:11,520
total vertical integration. He is
14090
11:53:09,360 --> 11:53:13,596
transforming Nvidia into a provider of
14091
11:53:11,520 --> 11:53:15,756
AI factories.
14092
11:53:13,596 --> 11:53:18,240
He believes that in the future, every
14093
11:53:15,756 --> 11:53:20,480
company will have two factories, one
14094
11:53:18,240 --> 11:53:23,520
that produces physical goods and a
14095
11:53:20,480 --> 11:53:25,680
digital one that produces intelligence.
14096
11:53:23,520 --> 11:53:27,756
With the Melanox networking, high-speed
14097
11:53:25,680 --> 11:53:30,240
highways, and the CUDA software
14098
11:53:27,756 --> 11:53:32,080
fortress, Jensen has ensured that the
14099
11:53:30,240 --> 11:53:35,436
entire infrastructure of this new
14100
11:53:32,080 --> 11:53:38,240
industrial revolution runs on Nvidia.
14101
11:53:35,436 --> 11:53:40,240
When asked about his legacy, Jensen
14102
11:53:38,240 --> 11:53:43,040
doesn't talk about stock prices or
14103
11:53:40,240 --> 11:53:45,436
trillions of dollars. He talks about
14104
11:53:43,040 --> 11:53:47,040
material sciences and scientific
14105
11:53:45,436 --> 11:53:49,116
discovery.
14106
11:53:47,040 --> 11:53:51,756
He believes AI will give humans
14107
11:53:49,116 --> 11:53:54,560
superpowers, helping us solve climate
14108
11:53:51,756 --> 11:53:56,720
change, cure diseases, and handle the
14109
11:53:54,560 --> 11:53:59,756
dangerous and mundane tasks so we can
14110
11:53:56,720 --> 11:54:02,756
focus on what truly makes us human,
14111
11:53:59,756 --> 11:54:02,756
curiosity.
14112
11:54:05,360 --> 11:54:09,680
By 2025,
14113
11:54:07,276 --> 11:54:11,436
the world had entered a state of compute
14114
11:54:09,680 --> 11:54:14,640
geopolitics.
14115
11:54:11,436 --> 11:54:17,200
Nvidia was no longer just a company. It
14116
11:54:14,640 --> 11:54:20,320
had become a strategic resource similar
14117
11:54:17,200 --> 11:54:23,916
to oil or grain. The launch of the
14118
11:54:20,320 --> 11:54:26,720
Blackwell B200 hadn't just met demand.
14119
11:54:23,916 --> 11:54:30,320
It had ignited a global scramble.
14120
11:54:26,720 --> 11:54:33,116
Nations like Japan, France, and the UAE
14121
11:54:30,320 --> 11:54:34,720
began building sovereign AI clouds.
14122
11:54:33,116 --> 11:54:37,040
Realizing that depending on a few
14123
11:54:34,720 --> 11:54:40,080
Silicon Valley giants for intelligence
14124
11:54:37,040 --> 11:54:43,436
was a national security risk.
14125
11:54:40,080 --> 11:54:47,200
But as 2025 progressed, a new whisper
14126
11:54:43,436 --> 11:54:50,080
began to haunt the industry. The wall.
14127
11:54:47,200 --> 11:54:52,960
For years, AI progress relied on scaling
14128
11:54:50,080 --> 11:54:55,276
laws. The idea that more data and more
14129
11:54:52,960 --> 11:54:59,200
GPUs would inevitably lead to more
14130
11:54:55,276 --> 11:55:01,436
intelligence. However, in 2026, the
14131
11:54:59,200 --> 11:55:01,436
returns1053409
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