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Most people see this and think culture.
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They see a charming eco-friendly
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tradition.
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But look closer. This isn't just people
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liking to pedal. What you were watching
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is a highfrequency, low friction
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economic machine.
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>> Ultimately, private car ownership is
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going to become obsolete. Cities are
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building for pedestrians. They're
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building for cycling. They're building
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for livability, not for cars.
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>> The bike economy, the multi-billion
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dollar system of Amsterdam.
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In Amsterdam, the bicycle isn't a toy.
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It is a critical urban infrastructure.
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If this system failed today, the city's
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economy would collapse tomorrow.
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For decades, the world has viewed
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Amsterdam through a romantic lens. But
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cities don't run on vibes. They run on
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systems. And when a system moves
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hundreds of thousands of people every
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single day, it stops being a choice and
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starts demanding three things. space,
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rules, and capital.
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Research shows that the cycling system
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contributes benefits equivalent to
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roughly 3% of the Netherlands GDP.
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This isn't just green energy. It's hard
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cash saved in public health, reduced
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absenteeism at work, and most
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importantly, unlocked productivity.
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Every person on a bike is a person who
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isn't taking up 12 square meters of
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public space with a car. That freed up
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space allows for high value real estate,
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commerce, and tourism. In economics, we
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call this optimization of land use.
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But success created a crisis. By the
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2010s, [music] Amsterdam had a clutter
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problem. Thousands of bikes were choking
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the streets. The solution, one of the
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[music] most expensive and daring
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engineering projects in the city. They
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built a cathedral for 7,000 bicycles
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under the water.
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It cost millions. From a traditional
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linear perspective, [music] spending
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that much on free parking seems insane.
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But from a circular economy perspective,
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a model where Amsterdam is a global
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leader with 30.6% circularity rate, it
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was a mandatory investment. As we see in
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the latest urban governance [music]
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reports, planning isn't an option here.
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It's the only way to exist.
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In this documentary, we are going beyond
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the postcard. We will travel back to
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1965 to see why the first sharing
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economy experiment failed. We will use
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scientific GPS data to track the shadow
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economy of the 80,000 bikes stolen every
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year. And we will explore [music] how
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Amsterdam is using the bicycle to become
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the world's first 100% circular city
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[music] by 2050. This is the story of
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how a humble machine with two wheels
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became [music] the backbone of a
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multi-billion dollar urban miracle.
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To understand why Amsterdam spends €85
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million on underwater parking today, we
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have to go back to a time when the city
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almost lost its [music] soul to the car,
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the 1960s.
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As post-war prosperity grew, Amsterdam
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was being choked by motor vehicles.
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In response, a counterculture group
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called the Provos launched what would
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become the first bike sharing program in
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history, [music]
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the Vita Fien Plan or the white bike
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plan.
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Their proposal was radical and purely
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idealistic. Paint 20,000 bicycles white,
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leave them unlocked across the city, and
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let anyone use them for free. No keys,
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no coins, [music] no owners. They viewed
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mobility as a public good, as essential
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and free as the air we breathe. On
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paper, it was a circular economy. Avon
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Pletra. In practice, [music] it was a
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disaster. Within days, the system
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collapsed. Why? Because the provos
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ignored a fundamental principle of
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economics, the tragedy of the commons.
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for
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without ownership or registration.
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Public property quickly became nobody's
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property. In an unregulated system with
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zero entry cost, the incentive to
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maintain the [music] asset disappears.
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Without locks or registration, public
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property quickly became nobody's [music]
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property. The police confiscated the
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bikes because they invited theft and the
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citizens driven by individual
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rationalism either took them home
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[music] or threw them into the canals.
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The lesson was harsh. You cannot have a
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massive urban transit system [music]
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based solely on romanticism.
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You need governance.
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However, the white bikes planted a seed.
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It shifted the economic debate. The city
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realized that if they didn't want to
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spend billions on highways like Los
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Angeles or London, they had to invest in
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a different kind of capital. Transition
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requires not just technology but a
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change in urban metabolism.
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The failure of the white [music] bikes
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taught Amsterdam that the bicycle had to
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be integrated into the formal economy of
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the city, not as a rebel symbol, but as
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a regulated, taxed and planned asset.
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Today, the free spirit of the white
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bikes only survives in one place, the
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Hoga Valu National Park. But in the
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city, the white bike [music] has been
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replaced by a sophisticated capital
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incentive model. [music] We no longer
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trust in the goodness of the user. We
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trust in incentives. We move the tragedy
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of the commons to a system of managed
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common pool resources. [music]
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In economics, success can be as
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disruptive as failure. By the late
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2010s, Amsterdam was a victim of its own
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efficiency. With nearly 1 million
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bicycles in the city, the urban surface
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had reached a breaking point. Every
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bridge, railing, and sidewalk was
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occupied by idle metal.
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This wasn't just an aesthetic grievance.
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It was an economic [music]
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bottleneck. Thousands of parked bikes
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were clogging the city's arteries,
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slowing down 200,000 daily [music]
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commuters at Central Station. In one of
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the world's most expensive real estate
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markets, free surface parking is a
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luxury [music] that a functional city
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cannot afford. The opportunity cost of
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that space was becoming too high. To
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[music] solve this, Amsterdam launched
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the entre, a massive urban
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reconfiguration project. The crown
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jewel, the open haven underwater
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parking.
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Consider that figure. Spending €60
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million just to store 7,000 bicycles
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underwater.
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To a traditional accountant, this looks
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like a massive sunk cost. But to an
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urban economist, it's a master stroke of
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asset management. By moving 7,000 bikes
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beneath the water, the city performed
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open heart surgery on its central hub.
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They reclaimed the surface, restoring
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the landscape to its 1900's aesthetic.
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This isn't just about beauty. It's about
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maximizing pedestrian flow. A station
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that breathes and flows is a station
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that generates higher economic value for
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the surrounding businesses. However, an
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85 million euro asset must be managed
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like a high performance logistics
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center. You cannot allow zombie bikes to
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occupy these slots indefinitely.
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This is where the incentive structure
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comes into play. The primary goal isn't
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profit, it's turnover. By offering the
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first 24 hours for free, the city
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subsidizes the daily [music] workforce.
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But by charging a daily fee thereafter,
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they penalize long-term storage and
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abandonment. Using advanced optical
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sensors, the city monitors idle
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inventory in real time, [music]
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ensuring that these 7,000 slots remain a
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liquid asset for those who keep the
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economy moving.
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Finally, we must consider the cost of
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friction.
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Transport.
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In transport economics, every second
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lost in a transfer is a loss in human
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capital and productivity.
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This underwater facility connects
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directly to the metro [music] and train
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platforms. A commuter can transition
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from their bicycle [music] to their
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train seat in less than 2 minutes,
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shielded from the elements. This level
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of intermodel [music]
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synergy is exactly what makes
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Amsterdam's circular economy, currently
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at a record 30.6% [music] circularity
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rate, a functional reality rather than
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just a policy goal.
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But this transition to a highly
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regulated system created its own set of
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problems. [music] Because when you turn
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a bicycle into a valuable economic
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asset, you create something else. A
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black market. [music] In Amsterdam, data
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doesn't tell the whole story. While
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police record 11,000 thefts a year, the
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reality is closer to 80,000.
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Most citizens don't report it. Cost of
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time is higher than the bike's value.
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This creates a massive shadow market
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operating entirely outside the official
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GDP. Forget the myth of international
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bike smuggling rings.
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A 2023 study tracking 100 bikes proved
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that stolen assets rarely leave the
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city. Instead, they feed a shadow
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circular economy. Your stolen bike is
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sold to a street dealer and then bought
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by your neighbor. It's a localized,
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untaxed, and
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>> [music]
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>> illegal closed loop.
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High theft risk creates a market
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distortion. If you expect your bike to
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be stolen within months, you don't buy
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quality, you buy junk. This beta bike
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equilibrium keeps the city's transport
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fleet low quality and forces owners to
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spend more on locks than the bikes
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themselves. [music]
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These aren't victimless crimes. They are
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negative externalities that drain city
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resources. Amsterdam's answer, the Fiat
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depot. Since the city couldn't stop the
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theft, it decided to manage the orphaned
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assets. Because in a circular [music]
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city, even a stolen bike is a resource
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that must be managed to maintain [music]
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the urban metabolism.
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In a city with more bicycles than
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people, orphaned assets are an
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inevitability.
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Every year, thousands of bikes are
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simply left behind. In economic terms,
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this is dead capital. They occupy
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valuable public space, provide zero
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utility, and degrade the urban
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landscape.
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According to official Amsterdam
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regulations, the city must intervene
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when private property interferes with
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public efficiency.
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Whether is an improperly parked bike
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blocking an emergency exit or a wreck
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that is no longer functional, the
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municipality acts as the ultimate
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enforcer of spatial order.
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All seized bicycles are transported to a
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central facility, the Fiat's depot. This
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is a logistical powerhouse that manages
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the city's lost capital. This isn't just
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a pound. It's a sorting facility for the
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city's metal metabolism, the retrieval.
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Owners have around 6 weeks to claim
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their bike for a fee, approximately €25.
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This fee doesn't cover the full
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operational cost, but it serves as a
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user pays tax to [music] discourage
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abandonment. If your bicycle was removed
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from a city parking facility, you will
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also pay €33.75
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parking cost. The sorting only about 25%
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of bikes are ever reclaimed. The rest
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they are classified as waste or asset.
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Here is where the circular economy
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strategy 2020 to 2025 becomes tangible.
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Amsterdam aims to reduce the use of new
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raw materials by 50% by 2030. The Fiat's
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depot doesn't just scrap everything.
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Refurbishment.
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Bikes in decent condition are sold to
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social enterprises or secondhand shops.
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They are recirculated into the economy
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at a low price point, providing
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affordable mobility for lowincome
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residents.
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Education.
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Many are used in vocational training
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programs, turning junk, into a teaching
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tool for future mechanics. Raw
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00:16:11,759 --> 00:16:17,680
materials, the unsalvageable ones, are
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sold as highquality scrap metal, feeding
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00:16:17,680 --> 00:16:22,800
back into the industrial cycle.
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What we see here is a complete life
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cycle management of a transport mode.
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The biggest challenge for circular
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00:16:28,079 --> 00:16:32,720
cities is the lack of effective
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governance mechanisms. Amsterdam
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succeeds because it treats the bicycle
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as a public utility. From the
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multi-million euro investment under the
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water to the scrap metal in the harbor,
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the city manages the entire
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cradletograve cycle of the bicycle.
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00:16:50,800 --> 00:16:55,360
Amsterdam is no longer just building
319
00:16:52,959 --> 00:16:58,959
bike lanes. It is building a new
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economic DNA. The city has set a target
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that many economists call impossible to
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be 100% circular by 2050.
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00:17:08,480 --> 00:17:13,120
This means that by midentury, [music]
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every gram of steel in a bicycle and
325
00:17:13,120 --> 00:17:17,919
every stone in a bridge must stay within
326
00:17:15,760 --> 00:17:20,720
the economic loop.
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00:17:17,919 --> 00:17:23,919
The take, make, waste model will be
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00:17:20,720 --> 00:17:26,720
extinct. For Amsterdam, the bicycle is
329
00:17:23,919 --> 00:17:29,760
the alpha product. The test case for how
330
00:17:26,720 --> 00:17:33,039
a city can move, consume, and recycle
331
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without depleting the planet's capital.
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00:17:33,039 --> 00:17:38,480
To reach 100% circularity, the concept
333
00:17:36,240 --> 00:17:41,760
of private ownership is being challenged
334
00:17:38,480 --> 00:17:44,400
by a more efficient model, product as a
335
00:17:41,760 --> 00:17:46,480
service. You don't buy the bike, you
336
00:17:44,400 --> 00:17:48,320
rent the mobility.
337
00:17:46,480 --> 00:17:49,919
So we talk a lot about ownership as a
338
00:17:48,320 --> 00:17:52,960
service, but it's this idea of, you
339
00:17:49,919 --> 00:17:55,360
know, something as a service. So in our
340
00:17:52,960 --> 00:17:57,360
case, bike as a service. It's all of the
341
00:17:55,360 --> 00:17:58,960
benefits of ownership, but none of the
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00:17:57,360 --> 00:18:01,039
drawbacks. So none of having to deal
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00:17:58,960 --> 00:18:02,640
with the maintenance or or any of the
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00:18:01,039 --> 00:18:03,600
things that come with actually owning
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something.
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00:18:03,600 --> 00:18:08,880
>> Economically, this aligns the incentives
347
00:18:05,919 --> 00:18:11,679
of the producer and the consumer. If the
348
00:18:08,880 --> 00:18:14,400
bike breaks, it's the company's problem,
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00:18:11,679 --> 00:18:16,160
not yours. by centralizing all of that
350
00:18:14,400 --> 00:18:17,679
maintenance obviously we cut cost
351
00:18:16,160 --> 00:18:20,320
significantly [music] we cut waste
352
00:18:17,679 --> 00:18:23,120
significantly um but for the individual
353
00:18:20,320 --> 00:18:24,960
user um they have nothing to worry about
354
00:18:23,120 --> 00:18:26,559
you know as a subscriber you get all of
355
00:18:24,960 --> 00:18:28,480
your maintenance so we come and do
356
00:18:26,559 --> 00:18:30,480
preventative maintenance so first of all
357
00:18:28,480 --> 00:18:32,640
that obviously reduced the cost um
358
00:18:30,480 --> 00:18:34,640
overall not so much to the end user but
359
00:18:32,640 --> 00:18:36,720
the cost of the business um that
360
00:18:34,640 --> 00:18:39,600
prevents breakdowns and things like that
361
00:18:36,720 --> 00:18:42,480
but in the end if you think about um the
362
00:18:39,600 --> 00:18:44,000
cost of time the cost of effort um maybe
363
00:18:42,480 --> 00:18:45,919
you don't even know how to maintain your
364
00:18:44,000 --> 00:18:47,679
own bike. Um, having a service that does
365
00:18:45,919 --> 00:18:48,960
all of that for you is just a a matter
366
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of convenience.
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00:18:48,960 --> 00:18:54,640
>> This forces manufacturers to design for
368
00:18:51,600 --> 00:18:57,600
durability and modularity, the core
369
00:18:54,640 --> 00:18:59,840
pillars of this circular economy. When
370
00:18:57,600 --> 00:19:01,919
the city manages the flow and private
371
00:18:59,840 --> 00:19:04,880
companies manage the maintenance, the
372
00:19:01,919 --> 00:19:07,840
shadow economy of theft we saw in act
373
00:19:04,880 --> 00:19:09,360
three begins to shrink. So, if you
374
00:19:07,840 --> 00:19:10,880
subscribe to a bike from Clover and your
375
00:19:09,360 --> 00:19:12,400
bike gets stolen, first of all, we
376
00:19:10,880 --> 00:19:14,559
actually probably will notice that it
377
00:19:12,400 --> 00:19:16,960
got stolen, maybe even before you did,
378
00:19:14,559 --> 00:19:19,120
because we have GPS on all the bikes.
379
00:19:16,960 --> 00:19:21,200
Um, but if it does get stolen, you use
380
00:19:19,120 --> 00:19:22,559
our WhatsApp chat. You basically send us
381
00:19:21,200 --> 00:19:25,200
a message and we come and bring you a
382
00:19:22,559 --> 00:19:27,679
new bike immediately. Why steal a bike
383
00:19:25,200 --> 00:19:29,919
that is tracked, branded, and has no
384
00:19:27,679 --> 00:19:32,400
resale value in a subscription-based
385
00:19:29,919 --> 00:19:34,080
market?
386
00:19:32,400 --> 00:19:36,640
So, what is the final return on
387
00:19:34,080 --> 00:19:40,400
investment? Let's look at the triple
388
00:19:36,640 --> 00:19:42,799
bottom line. Public health. By avoiding
389
00:19:40,400 --> 00:19:44,400
11,000 deaths annually through active
390
00:19:42,799 --> 00:19:47,528
transport, [music] the Dutch economy
391
00:19:44,400 --> 00:19:48,880
saves 19 billion in healthcare costs.
392
00:19:47,528 --> 00:19:52,320
[music]
393
00:19:48,880 --> 00:19:54,880
Urban density. By utilizing underwater
394
00:19:52,320 --> 00:19:57,200
parking and vertical depots, Amsterdam
395
00:19:54,880 --> 00:19:59,120
maintains a population density that
396
00:19:57,200 --> 00:20:01,600
would be impossible with cars, [music]
397
00:19:59,120 --> 00:20:03,280
keeping real estate productivity at peak
398
00:20:01,600 --> 00:20:06,000
levels.
399
00:20:03,280 --> 00:20:08,559
resource independence. By reclaiming
400
00:20:06,000 --> 00:20:11,200
metal from the fiat depot, the city
401
00:20:08,559 --> 00:20:13,919
insulates itself from global commodity
402
00:20:11,200 --> 00:20:17,120
price shocks. This is a sustainable
403
00:20:13,919 --> 00:20:19,039
urban metabolism. The city isn't just a
404
00:20:17,120 --> 00:20:21,520
place where people live. It's a [music]
405
00:20:19,039 --> 00:20:24,320
living organism that processes resources
406
00:20:21,520 --> 00:20:26,559
with maximum efficiency.
407
00:20:24,320 --> 00:20:28,880
Amsterdam's success has sent a clear
408
00:20:26,559 --> 00:20:31,200
message to the rest of the continent.
409
00:20:28,880 --> 00:20:34,000
Spatial efficiency is the only way
410
00:20:31,200 --> 00:20:36,480
forward for the modern metropolis.
411
00:20:34,000 --> 00:20:38,480
Across Europe, the bicycle has moved
412
00:20:36,480 --> 00:20:40,584
from being a leisure tool to a
413
00:20:38,480 --> 00:20:42,799
cornerstone of urban recovery and
414
00:20:40,584 --> 00:20:45,520
[music] economic resilience.
415
00:20:42,799 --> 00:20:48,559
In Paris, a city once defined by its
416
00:20:45,520 --> 00:20:51,120
congestion, the plan is investing
417
00:20:48,559 --> 00:20:54,559
hundreds of millions to become 100%
418
00:20:51,120 --> 00:20:56,880
cyclable. In Barcelona, the super blocks
419
00:20:54,559 --> 00:21:01,280
are reclaiming entire intersections from
420
00:20:56,880 --> 00:21:02,880
cars to create human centric lungs.
421
00:21:01,280 --> 00:21:06,480
These aren't [music] just environmental
422
00:21:02,880 --> 00:21:08,880
projects. They are market corrections.
423
00:21:06,480 --> 00:21:11,360
The cities are betting that a quieter,
424
00:21:08,880 --> 00:21:13,760
cleaner, and more agile urban center
425
00:21:11,360 --> 00:21:16,720
will attract more talent, more tourism,
426
00:21:13,760 --> 00:21:19,280
and higher property values.
427
00:21:16,720 --> 00:21:21,760
From the cycle superighways of London to
428
00:21:19,280 --> 00:21:24,799
the industrial hubs of Germany, the
429
00:21:21,760 --> 00:21:28,799
economic logic is consistent. Replacing
430
00:21:24,799 --> 00:21:31,039
a 1 1/2 ton vehicle with a 15 kg machine
431
00:21:28,799 --> 00:21:32,984
reduces the cost of maintenance for the
432
00:21:31,039 --> 00:21:35,360
city and increases the productivity
433
00:21:32,984 --> 00:21:37,520
[music] of the citizen.
434
00:21:35,360 --> 00:21:39,840
But while northern capitals have the
435
00:21:37,520 --> 00:21:42,640
advantage of decades of infrastructure,
436
00:21:39,840 --> 00:21:44,640
the real test is happening in the south.
437
00:21:42,640 --> 00:21:46,880
In the Mediterranean, where the street
438
00:21:44,640 --> 00:21:49,120
is a social space and the sun is a
439
00:21:46,880 --> 00:21:51,840
constant resource, a new leader is
440
00:21:49,120 --> 00:21:54,320
emerging. A city that has used the
441
00:21:51,840 --> 00:21:58,120
Amsterdam blueprint to transform itself
442
00:21:54,320 --> 00:21:58,120
at record speed.
443
00:22:04,080 --> 00:22:07,080
Foreign
444
00:22:17,440 --> 00:22:20,440
speech. Foreign speech. Foreign speech.
445
00:22:59,445 --> 00:23:03,840
>> [music]
446
00:23:01,280 --> 00:23:07,320
>> If Amsterdam is the blueprint, Valencia
447
00:23:03,840 --> 00:23:07,320
is the laboratory.
448
00:23:09,200 --> 00:23:12,200
Yes.
449
00:23:23,681 --> 00:23:25,701
>> [music]
450
00:23:29,440 --> 00:23:32,840
>> I could as
451
00:23:51,120 --> 00:23:55,200
in less than a decade, this
452
00:23:52,720 --> 00:23:57,679
Mediterranean city has transitioned from
453
00:23:55,200 --> 00:24:01,280
a car ccentric capital to a global
454
00:23:57,679 --> 00:24:01,280
reference [music] in urban metabolism.
455
00:24:23,440 --> 00:24:29,039
Valencia's transformation wasn't a
456
00:24:25,760 --> 00:24:31,200
matter of vibes or romanticism. It was a
457
00:24:29,039 --> 00:24:32,720
calculated investment in spatial
458
00:24:31,200 --> 00:24:34,960
efficiency.
459
00:24:32,720 --> 00:24:36,559
>> I think attracting top global talent
460
00:24:34,960 --> 00:24:38,400
means that you need to have a vibrant,
461
00:24:36,559 --> 00:24:40,480
livable city. And I think most young
462
00:24:38,400 --> 00:24:42,282
people um particularly who are coming
463
00:24:40,480 --> 00:24:44,159
into the workforce now are looking
464
00:24:42,282 --> 00:24:46,640
[music] for ways to get around a city
465
00:24:44,159 --> 00:24:48,880
that doesn't rely on public transit.
466
00:24:46,640 --> 00:24:50,880
They don't want to own a car um because
467
00:24:48,880 --> 00:24:52,480
car ownership is a total burden. Having
468
00:24:50,880 --> 00:24:55,039
to find parking, [music] insurance, cost
469
00:24:52,480 --> 00:24:56,640
of the car, all of that. So having this
470
00:24:55,039 --> 00:24:59,200
accessible infrastructure, cycling
471
00:24:56,640 --> 00:25:00,720
infrastructure specifically, and in a
472
00:24:59,200 --> 00:25:02,720
city like Valencia that, you know,
473
00:25:00,720 --> 00:25:04,640
already has a lot of reasons to attract
474
00:25:02,720 --> 00:25:07,279
top talent, just makes it that much
475
00:25:04,640 --> 00:25:08,880
better. Um, cycling is a preferred way
476
00:25:07,279 --> 00:25:10,640
to get around in Valencia, we're number
477
00:25:08,880 --> 00:25:12,960
seven in the world for cycling to work,
478
00:25:10,640 --> 00:25:15,360
for example. So adding a layer of an
479
00:25:12,960 --> 00:25:17,679
easy subscription ebike service to that
480
00:25:15,360 --> 00:25:19,840
just again attracts even more um top
481
00:25:17,679 --> 00:25:22,880
talent to the city.
482
00:25:19,840 --> 00:25:25,039
By implementing the Anilo Cista, the
483
00:25:22,880 --> 00:25:27,477
city has reclaimed high value public
484
00:25:25,039 --> 00:25:30,159
space to boost local commerce and reduce
485
00:25:27,477 --> 00:25:32,320
[music] the toxic liability of the car.
486
00:25:30,159 --> 00:25:34,080
>> It's important to remember that um often
487
00:25:32,320 --> 00:25:35,760
times with cars, although they can fit
488
00:25:34,080 --> 00:25:37,760
multiple people, most of the time it's
489
00:25:35,760 --> 00:25:39,200
one person per one car. So when we're
490
00:25:37,760 --> 00:25:41,120
asking [music] about, you know, 10 bikes
491
00:25:39,200 --> 00:25:43,520
versus one car, we're essentially saying
492
00:25:41,120 --> 00:25:45,120
10 people versus one person. So we have
493
00:25:43,520 --> 00:25:46,159
a 10x multiplier on essentially
494
00:25:45,120 --> 00:25:47,760
everything that's happening on that
495
00:25:46,159 --> 00:25:49,039
street. Whether that be visits to the
496
00:25:47,760 --> 00:25:50,480
businesses, whether that be transactions
497
00:25:49,039 --> 00:25:52,000
and purchases, [music] everything gets
498
00:25:50,480 --> 00:25:53,440
that 10x multiplier and increases
499
00:25:52,000 --> 00:25:55,919
revenue for the whole street.
500
00:25:53,440 --> 00:25:58,240
>> In economics, this is the optimization
501
00:25:55,919 --> 00:26:00,480
of land use. The same principle that
502
00:25:58,240 --> 00:26:01,360
drove Amsterdam to build under its
503
00:26:00,480 --> 00:26:03,200
canals.
504
00:26:01,360 --> 00:26:05,840
>> If I'm cycling and I pass by, for
505
00:26:03,200 --> 00:26:07,279
example, a bakery, go I [snorts] smell
506
00:26:05,840 --> 00:26:08,559
that bakery, I go, "Oh, you know what?
507
00:26:07,279 --> 00:26:09,279
Maybe I'm going to stop in, try
508
00:26:08,559 --> 00:26:11,200
something [music] one of those
509
00:26:09,279 --> 00:26:12,240
products." Um, you know, essentially
510
00:26:11,200 --> 00:26:13,760
become a patron of that business.
511
00:26:12,240 --> 00:26:15,520
Whereas if I'm passing by in a car,
512
00:26:13,760 --> 00:26:17,520
there's no chance of that happening. And
513
00:26:15,520 --> 00:26:18,960
the other benefit is [music] um car
514
00:26:17,520 --> 00:26:20,720
parking also has this sort of
515
00:26:18,960 --> 00:26:22,480
psychological effect on the streets and
516
00:26:20,720 --> 00:26:24,159
the people that live there. Car parking
517
00:26:22,480 --> 00:26:26,240
makes the space feel a lot more closed
518
00:26:24,159 --> 00:26:27,600
in and a lot more cramped than bike
519
00:26:26,240 --> 00:26:28,880
parking. It keeps the space very nice
520
00:26:27,600 --> 00:26:30,799
and open.
521
00:26:28,880 --> 00:26:33,679
>> Emerging businesses are shifting the
522
00:26:30,799 --> 00:26:35,440
market from ownership to usership.
523
00:26:33,679 --> 00:26:37,200
>> You know, our customers, [music] they
524
00:26:35,440 --> 00:26:39,200
depend on their bikes as a reliable way
525
00:26:37,200 --> 00:26:41,279
to get around. And so we use an
526
00:26:39,200 --> 00:26:43,760
ownership as a service model. [music] So
527
00:26:41,279 --> 00:26:45,840
instead of owning the asset yourself, um
528
00:26:43,760 --> 00:26:47,440
you subscribe to it from us. And we
529
00:26:45,840 --> 00:26:48,720
think that's what customers need in
530
00:26:47,440 --> 00:26:50,400
terms of reliable day-to-day
531
00:26:48,720 --> 00:26:53,039
transportation. If you look at something
532
00:26:50,400 --> 00:26:55,600
like Lime or Valon BC, they will have
533
00:26:53,039 --> 00:26:57,919
that idle asset problem. Um and
534
00:26:55,600 --> 00:27:00,000
certainly ownership obviously the same
535
00:26:57,919 --> 00:27:02,320
thing. But with us, you know, handling
536
00:27:00,000 --> 00:27:03,039
maintenance, battery swapping, theft
537
00:27:02,320 --> 00:27:05,360
protection, [music]
538
00:27:03,039 --> 00:27:07,200
insurance, all of that. Um and yet still
539
00:27:05,360 --> 00:27:09,120
having access to the bike anytime you
540
00:27:07,200 --> 00:27:11,760
want. It's your bike. Subscription
541
00:27:09,120 --> 00:27:13,840
models like Swap Fiats, which already
542
00:27:11,760 --> 00:27:16,640
dominate the Dutch market, are landing
543
00:27:13,840 --> 00:27:18,720
in Valencia. These companies treat the
544
00:27:16,640 --> 00:27:20,799
bike as a service, covering all
545
00:27:18,720 --> 00:27:21,520
maintenance and repairs for a monthly
546
00:27:20,799 --> 00:27:23,200
fee.
547
00:27:21,520 --> 00:27:25,279
>> Ownership isn't necessarily a bad
548
00:27:23,200 --> 00:27:27,039
investment, but I think um most
549
00:27:25,279 --> 00:27:28,400
consumers are moving away from owning
550
00:27:27,039 --> 00:27:30,159
things. You know, people are leasing
551
00:27:28,400 --> 00:27:32,480
their cars, people are, you know, more
552
00:27:30,159 --> 00:27:34,320
and more renting their homes. [music] Um
553
00:27:32,480 --> 00:27:36,320
so for us, a subscription model made
554
00:27:34,320 --> 00:27:38,480
sense. That and affordability. This
555
00:27:36,320 --> 00:27:40,960
eliminates the fear of theft and
556
00:27:38,480 --> 00:27:43,120
long-term depreciation, turning the
557
00:27:40,960 --> 00:27:46,159
bicycle into a predictable, low-
558
00:27:43,120 --> 00:27:49,279
friction utility for the modern worker.
559
00:27:46,159 --> 00:27:51,919
The impact extends to logistics. In
560
00:27:49,279 --> 00:27:54,640
Valencia's historic center, where large
561
00:27:51,919 --> 00:27:56,960
trucks are increasingly restricted, last
562
00:27:54,640 --> 00:27:58,399
mile delivery by [music] cargo bike is
563
00:27:56,960 --> 00:28:00,799
becoming the gold standard for
564
00:27:58,399 --> 00:28:03,919
efficiency. We are witnessing the birth
565
00:28:00,799 --> 00:28:06,480
of micro hubs, small urban distribution
566
00:28:03,919 --> 00:28:08,640
centers that allow for zero emission
567
00:28:06,480 --> 00:28:11,360
high-speed delivery in high density
568
00:28:08,640 --> 00:28:13,840
zones. From the massive underwater
569
00:28:11,360 --> 00:28:16,480
investments in Amsterdam to the emerging
570
00:28:13,840 --> 00:28:19,360
subscription models in Valencia, the
571
00:28:16,480 --> 00:28:21,919
message is clear. The bicycle is no
572
00:28:19,360 --> 00:28:25,520
longer just a hobby. It is a financial
573
00:28:21,919 --> 00:28:26,720
instrument and a spatial optimizer.
574
00:28:25,520 --> 00:28:29,120
You know, when we were speaking to
575
00:28:26,720 --> 00:28:31,440
consumers about how we could get them to
576
00:28:29,120 --> 00:28:33,279
switch from a car to an ebike, it was
577
00:28:31,440 --> 00:28:35,520
all about convenience. So, it was about
578
00:28:33,279 --> 00:28:37,520
this idea that, you know, with a car,
579
00:28:35,520 --> 00:28:39,279
you can go point A to point B whenever
580
00:28:37,520 --> 00:28:41,360
you want. You're not relying on public
581
00:28:39,279 --> 00:28:43,440
transit or any of those things. But if
582
00:28:41,360 --> 00:28:45,120
you need gas, you go to a gas station,
583
00:28:43,440 --> 00:28:47,440
it takes 5 minutes, and you're back on
584
00:28:45,120 --> 00:28:49,279
your way. People perceived ebikes as
585
00:28:47,440 --> 00:28:50,799
inconvenient because, oh, what if I
586
00:28:49,279 --> 00:28:52,880
forget to charge the battery? Then it's
587
00:28:50,799 --> 00:28:55,120
just kind of a very heavy paper weight.
588
00:28:52,880 --> 00:28:56,720
Um, but if we eliminate that need for
589
00:28:55,120 --> 00:28:58,389
charging and people can just come and
590
00:28:56,720 --> 00:29:00,399
collect a charge battery anytime,
591
00:28:58,389 --> 00:29:03,440
[music] um, it helps break that barrier
592
00:29:00,399 --> 00:29:05,360
to entry for getting out of a car. By
593
00:29:03,440 --> 00:29:07,560
integrating these new business models
594
00:29:05,360 --> 00:29:09,679
with public planning, Valencia is
595
00:29:07,560 --> 00:29:12,640
[music] securing its place in the 21st
596
00:29:09,679 --> 00:29:15,279
century economy. Proving that a dense
597
00:29:12,640 --> 00:29:17,760
functional city isn't just a choice,
598
00:29:15,279 --> 00:29:19,600
it's a competitive necessity.
599
00:29:17,760 --> 00:29:21,440
>> Ultimately, private car ownership is
600
00:29:19,600 --> 00:29:23,200
going to become obsolete. [music] Cities
601
00:29:21,440 --> 00:29:24,880
are building for pedestrians. They're
602
00:29:23,200 --> 00:29:27,440
building for cycling. They're building
603
00:29:24,880 --> 00:29:29,440
for livability, not for cars.
604
00:29:27,440 --> 00:29:31,520
>> Throughout this documentary, we have
605
00:29:29,440 --> 00:29:34,640
seen the gears of a massive economic
606
00:29:31,520 --> 00:29:37,520
machine. But there is a final myth we
607
00:29:34,640 --> 00:29:39,919
must dismantle. The idea that cities
608
00:29:37,520 --> 00:29:41,919
like Amsterdam or Valencia look like
609
00:29:39,919 --> 00:29:44,559
this [music] because their citizens are
610
00:29:41,919 --> 00:29:47,520
simply different. History tells a
611
00:29:44,559 --> 00:29:49,760
different [music] story. In the 1970s,
612
00:29:47,520 --> 00:29:51,760
Amsterdam was on the verge of becoming
613
00:29:49,760 --> 00:29:53,279
another carcent ccentric congested
614
00:29:51,760 --> 00:29:55,840
metropolis.
615
00:29:53,279 --> 00:29:58,240
The transition we see today wasn't a
616
00:29:55,840 --> 00:30:00,960
natural evolution [music] of culture. It
617
00:29:58,240 --> 00:30:02,799
was a hostile takeover of urban space by
618
00:30:00,960 --> 00:30:05,600
a policy and planning. [music]
619
00:30:02,799 --> 00:30:08,080
When a city reaches a certain density,
620
00:30:05,600 --> 00:30:10,320
freedom of choice in transport becomes a
621
00:30:08,080 --> 00:30:13,919
mathematical impossibility.
622
00:30:10,320 --> 00:30:15,840
If everyone chooses a car, no one moves.
623
00:30:13,919 --> 00:30:18,559
In this high [music] stakes environment,
624
00:30:15,840 --> 00:30:21,039
planning is not an option. It is the
625
00:30:18,559 --> 00:30:22,320
only way to survive. What is the
626
00:30:21,039 --> 00:30:26,240
ultimate harvest [music] of this
627
00:30:22,320 --> 00:30:28,640
planning? It is the 3% GDP boost we
628
00:30:26,240 --> 00:30:30,880
mentioned at the start. But it's also
629
00:30:28,640 --> 00:30:34,000
found in the margins,
630
00:30:30,880 --> 00:30:35,919
the fiscal savings by avoiding the need
631
00:30:34,000 --> 00:30:38,399
for multi-billion euro highway
632
00:30:35,919 --> 00:30:41,360
expansions and massive health care costs
633
00:30:38,399 --> 00:30:44,399
related to sedentary lifestyles.
634
00:30:41,360 --> 00:30:46,640
The resilience factor by creating a
635
00:30:44,399 --> 00:30:49,520
circular metropolis that can process its
636
00:30:46,640 --> 00:30:51,520
own waste at the Kruu depot and turn it
637
00:30:49,520 --> 00:30:54,640
back into capital.
638
00:30:51,520 --> 00:30:56,799
The talent magnet in the global war for
639
00:30:54,640 --> 00:30:59,200
talent. Highly skilled workers choose
640
00:30:56,799 --> 00:31:01,760
cities based on [music] livability.
641
00:30:59,200 --> 00:31:03,496
Amsterdam's bicycle infrastructure is
642
00:31:01,760 --> 00:31:04,399
its most effective recruitment tool.
643
00:31:03,496 --> 00:31:06,480
[music]
644
00:31:04,399 --> 00:31:09,600
We started this journey looking at a
645
00:31:06,480 --> 00:31:11,440
simple machine, two wheels and a frame.
646
00:31:09,600 --> 00:31:13,520
But as we've [music] seen, the bicycle
647
00:31:11,440 --> 00:31:16,080
in Amsterdam is much more than a
648
00:31:13,520 --> 00:31:19,440
transport mode. It is a financial
649
00:31:16,080 --> 00:31:22,159
instrument. It is a spatial optimizer.
650
00:31:19,440 --> 00:31:25,200
It is the invisible engine that allows a
651
00:31:22,159 --> 00:31:26,320
medieval city to function as a 21st
652
00:31:25,200 --> 00:31:28,080
century economic [music]
653
00:31:26,320 --> 00:31:31,039
powerhouse.
654
00:31:28,080 --> 00:31:33,120
The €85 million spent on underwater
655
00:31:31,039 --> 00:31:35,760
tunnels, the complex [music] logistics
656
00:31:33,120 --> 00:31:37,919
of the Kruquius Depo, or the new
657
00:31:35,760 --> 00:31:40,880
Mediterranean bike lanes [music] are not
658
00:31:37,919 --> 00:31:42,960
costs. They are investments in
659
00:31:40,880 --> 00:31:45,519
resilience.
660
00:31:42,960 --> 00:31:47,760
In a world of rising energy prices and
661
00:31:45,519 --> 00:31:50,720
shrinking urban space, the Amsterdam
662
00:31:47,760 --> 00:31:52,960
model offers a glimpse into the future.
663
00:31:50,720 --> 00:31:55,679
It proves that the most sophisticated
664
00:31:52,960 --> 00:31:58,399
technology isn't always a new gadget.
665
00:31:55,679 --> 00:32:01,760
Sometimes it's the perfect integration
666
00:31:58,399 --> 00:32:04,760
of an old idea into a new circular
667
00:32:01,760 --> 00:32:04,760
world.
668
00:33:05,120 --> 00:33:08,120
Imagine
669
00:33:20,640 --> 00:33:24,399
for a moment, what if your Bitcoin
670
00:33:22,640 --> 00:33:26,480
holdings could purchase more than just
671
00:33:24,399 --> 00:33:29,039
everyday items like coffee or the latest
672
00:33:26,480 --> 00:33:30,880
gadgets? What if that digital currency
673
00:33:29,039 --> 00:33:33,360
sitting in your wallet could actually
674
00:33:30,880 --> 00:33:38,120
buy you a house or perhaps even an
675
00:33:33,360 --> 00:33:38,120
entire commercial building? real estate.
676
00:33:47,760 --> 00:33:51,279
Welcome to the fascinating and rapidly
677
00:33:49,760 --> 00:33:53,600
evolving world of crypto real [music]
678
00:33:51,279 --> 00:33:58,200
estate where digital assets are being
679
00:33:53,600 --> 00:33:58,200
transformed into tangible property.
680
00:34:02,080 --> 00:34:05,279
Today, we're taking a deep dive into the
681
00:34:04,080 --> 00:34:07,279
revolutionary intersection of
682
00:34:05,279 --> 00:34:09,520
cryptocurrency and property ownership,
683
00:34:07,279 --> 00:34:11,679
examining in detail how Bitcoin [music]
684
00:34:09,520 --> 00:34:14,000
is successfully transforming what were
685
00:34:11,679 --> 00:34:16,159
once purely digital coins into tangible
686
00:34:14,000 --> 00:34:17,679
physical real estate investments.
687
00:34:16,159 --> 00:34:19,440
Whether you're an experienced crypto
688
00:34:17,679 --> 00:34:21,599
investor [music] looking to diversify
689
00:34:19,440 --> 00:34:23,280
your portfolio or simply someone who's
690
00:34:21,599 --> 00:34:25,520
curious about emerging trends in
691
00:34:23,280 --> 00:34:27,359
property markets, this is an in-depth
692
00:34:25,520 --> 00:34:28,960
look at how the landscape and future of
693
00:34:27,359 --> 00:34:31,119
real estate transactions is
694
00:34:28,960 --> 00:34:33,679
fundamentally evolving and changing
695
00:34:31,119 --> 00:34:35,760
before our eyes.
696
00:34:33,679 --> 00:34:37,679
The financial world is in constant
697
00:34:35,760 --> 00:34:39,679
transformation, but in this decade,
698
00:34:37,679 --> 00:34:43,119
digitalization has accelerated that
699
00:34:39,679 --> 00:34:45,280
change faster than anyone imagined.
700
00:34:43,119 --> 00:34:47,599
Today, money, investments, [music] and
701
00:34:45,280 --> 00:34:49,040
assets flow through codes silent,
702
00:34:47,599 --> 00:34:52,240
transparent, and borderless.
703
00:34:49,040 --> 00:34:54,399
Cryptocurrencies led by Bitcoin mark the
704
00:34:52,240 --> 00:34:56,079
beginning of a new era. They shook the
705
00:34:54,399 --> 00:34:58,240
foundations of the global financial
706
00:34:56,079 --> 00:35:01,440
system, sparking both excitement and
707
00:34:58,240 --> 00:35:04,079
skepticism. Yet, behind that phenomenon
708
00:35:01,440 --> 00:35:07,079
emerged something even deeper.
709
00:35:04,079 --> 00:35:07,079
Tokenization.
710
00:35:09,200 --> 00:35:12,200
Contraos,
711
00:35:28,079 --> 00:35:31,640
real world assets.
712
00:35:51,760 --> 00:35:53,839
Moment.
713
00:36:04,000 --> 00:36:08,000
tokenization brings. So it's the most
714
00:36:05,440 --> 00:36:09,599
suitable, most modern ledger technology
715
00:36:08,000 --> 00:36:10,240
uh ideal for modernizing capital
716
00:36:09,599 --> 00:36:13,520
markets.
717
00:36:10,240 --> 00:36:15,520
>> The idea is simple, the impact enormous.
718
00:36:13,520 --> 00:36:18,160
Each token represents a fraction of an
719
00:36:15,520 --> 00:36:20,079
asset, a share, a bond, a property, or
720
00:36:18,160 --> 00:36:22,240
even a work of art. All recorded on a
721
00:36:20,079 --> 00:36:25,240
blockchain, a global tamper proof
722
00:36:22,240 --> 00:36:25,240
ledger.
723
00:36:29,035 --> 00:36:31,055
[music]
724
00:36:39,515 --> 00:36:41,535
>> [music]
725
00:36:42,400 --> 00:36:45,800
>> Smart contracts.
726
00:37:00,000 --> 00:37:03,280
We believe the next step going forward
727
00:37:01,839 --> 00:37:06,079
will be the tokenization [music]
728
00:37:03,280 --> 00:37:08,960
of financial assets. And that means
729
00:37:06,079 --> 00:37:11,760
every stock, every bond will have its
730
00:37:08,960 --> 00:37:12,640
own basically QIP. It'll be on one
731
00:37:11,760 --> 00:37:15,119
general ledger.
732
00:37:12,640 --> 00:37:17,440
>> In other words, a token isn't just an
733
00:37:15,119 --> 00:37:20,000
asset. It's a digital entry [music] in a
734
00:37:17,440 --> 00:37:22,320
new kind of ledger that is rewriting how
735
00:37:20,000 --> 00:37:24,560
capital markets keep their books.
736
00:37:22,320 --> 00:37:26,079
Investment in tokenized real estates
737
00:37:24,560 --> 00:37:27,330
represents one of the most recent
738
00:37:26,079 --> 00:37:28,320
advancements in the property industry.
739
00:37:27,330 --> 00:37:30,560
[music]
740
00:37:28,320 --> 00:37:33,040
Tokenization enables houses and
741
00:37:30,560 --> 00:37:37,079
apartments to be divided and sold and
742
00:37:33,040 --> 00:37:37,079
numerous smaller units.
743
00:37:46,320 --> 00:37:48,480
Fraction.
744
00:37:58,320 --> 00:38:02,200
Fraction.
745
00:37:59,200 --> 00:38:02,200
different.
746
00:38:05,976 --> 00:38:07,996
[music]
747
00:38:13,836 --> 00:38:15,856
[music]
748
00:38:23,440 --> 00:38:27,839
Small programs act like a bridge between
749
00:38:25,280 --> 00:38:29,680
a property and online trading platform.
750
00:38:27,839 --> 00:38:31,119
Hence tokens create a digital
751
00:38:29,680 --> 00:38:35,480
representation of a property [music]
752
00:38:31,119 --> 00:38:35,480
facilitating its digital transfer.
753
00:38:36,960 --> 00:38:40,800
The process of purchasing a property is
754
00:38:39,119 --> 00:38:43,280
still associated with significant
755
00:38:40,800 --> 00:38:45,680
bureaucracy, lengthy procedures and
756
00:38:43,280 --> 00:38:49,040
subsequent high costs.
757
00:38:45,680 --> 00:38:51,440
So what exactly is crypto real estate?
758
00:38:49,040 --> 00:38:53,680
At its core, the term refers to any real
759
00:38:51,440 --> 00:38:56,560
estate transaction where cryptocurrency
760
00:38:53,680 --> 00:38:59,040
plays a major role, either as a direct
761
00:38:56,560 --> 00:39:03,320
form of payment, a converted asset, or
762
00:38:59,040 --> 00:39:03,320
collateral for purchasing property.
763
00:39:10,800 --> 00:39:13,800
Bitcoins
764
00:39:30,720 --> 00:39:34,920
Crypto reference loans.
765
00:39:54,560 --> 00:39:59,520
But the concept goes even deeper than
766
00:39:57,280 --> 00:40:01,440
that. Crypto real estate includes buying
767
00:39:59,520 --> 00:40:03,520
a home directly with Bitcoin or other
768
00:40:01,440 --> 00:40:06,497
cryptocurrencies, using stable coins
769
00:40:03,520 --> 00:40:08,880
like USDT or USDC for a more stable
770
00:40:06,497 --> 00:40:11,359
[music] purchase, converting crypto into
771
00:40:08,880 --> 00:40:12,960
fiat at closing, taking out loans backed
772
00:40:11,359 --> 00:40:14,720
by cryptocurrency to purchase real
773
00:40:12,960 --> 00:40:16,640
property, tokenized real estate where
774
00:40:14,720 --> 00:40:18,320
ownership is fractionalized into digital
775
00:40:16,640 --> 00:40:20,000
token, blockchain based property
776
00:40:18,320 --> 00:40:23,000
records, and smart contract driven
777
00:40:20,000 --> 00:40:23,000
transactions.
778
00:40:35,040 --> 00:40:38,440
Stable coins.
779
00:40:51,680 --> 00:40:55,079
Stable coins.
780
00:41:03,920 --> 00:41:09,319
EMT. E A R Tther
781
00:41:17,520 --> 00:41:21,640
U USDT
782
00:41:25,440 --> 00:41:28,440
USDC
783
00:41:40,880 --> 00:41:43,880
US
784
00:41:48,240 --> 00:41:51,720
stable coinry.
785
00:41:58,504 --> 00:42:00,524
>> [snorts]
786
00:42:08,160 --> 00:42:11,160
>> for
787
00:42:34,480 --> 00:42:37,880
stable coins.
788
00:42:43,920 --> 00:42:48,319
It's an evolution in how value moves
789
00:42:46,160 --> 00:42:50,480
around the world. And for the first
790
00:42:48,319 --> 00:42:54,640
time, digital wealth is becoming a
791
00:42:50,480 --> 00:42:54,640
direct pathway to physical ownership.
792
00:42:56,480 --> 00:43:00,240
To understand how we arrived at this
793
00:42:58,480 --> 00:43:02,880
moment, we need to step back and look at
794
00:43:00,240 --> 00:43:04,960
the timeline. Bitcoin launched in 2009
795
00:43:02,880 --> 00:43:06,800
as a peer-to-peer digital alternative to
796
00:43:04,960 --> 00:43:08,640
money. In its early years, the idea of
797
00:43:06,800 --> 00:43:10,960
using Bitcoin to buy real estate was
798
00:43:08,640 --> 00:43:13,280
laughable. But Bitcoin grew, first
799
00:43:10,960 --> 00:43:15,760
crossing $1, then a 100, then a
800
00:43:13,280 --> 00:43:18,400
thousand, then tens of thousands. A new
801
00:43:15,760 --> 00:43:20,400
wave of wealth was created. Suddenly,
802
00:43:18,400 --> 00:43:22,560
early adopters who once bought pizza
803
00:43:20,400 --> 00:43:25,520
with Bitcoin now had enough digital
804
00:43:22,560 --> 00:43:27,920
value to buy entire homes, and sellers
805
00:43:25,520 --> 00:43:29,920
began paying attention. The first public
806
00:43:27,920 --> 00:43:33,119
record of a property purchased fully in
807
00:43:29,920 --> 00:43:35,280
Bitcoin dates back to 2017. From there,
808
00:43:33,119 --> 00:43:37,839
the trend spread to luxury markets,
809
00:43:35,280 --> 00:43:40,160
Miami, Los Angeles, New York, Dubai, and
810
00:43:37,839 --> 00:43:42,000
London. Developers began marketing
811
00:43:40,160 --> 00:43:44,720
properties specifically to crypto
812
00:43:42,000 --> 00:43:47,599
buyers. Brokers started specializing in
813
00:43:44,720 --> 00:43:49,119
crypto transactions. Escrow companies
814
00:43:47,599 --> 00:43:50,960
adapted.
815
00:43:49,119 --> 00:43:54,319
Even governments began studying
816
00:43:50,960 --> 00:43:56,800
blockchainbased property registries.
817
00:43:54,319 --> 00:43:59,280
Buying real estate with Bitcoin isn't
818
00:43:56,800 --> 00:44:01,200
science fiction. Some sellers now accept
819
00:43:59,280 --> 00:44:02,955
crypto directly, while others work
820
00:44:01,200 --> 00:44:05,760
through brokers who convert Bitcoin into
821
00:44:02,955 --> 00:44:08,160
[music] local currency. The process is
822
00:44:05,760 --> 00:44:10,640
faster, borderless, and sometimes even
823
00:44:08,160 --> 00:44:12,880
tax efficient if you know the rules.
824
00:44:10,640 --> 00:44:15,599
Things that sounded impossible in 2010
825
00:44:12,880 --> 00:44:18,240
became normal by 2020. And now [music]
826
00:44:15,599 --> 00:44:20,640
in the 2020s, cryptocurrency is becoming
827
00:44:18,240 --> 00:44:23,040
a serious player in global real estate.
828
00:44:20,640 --> 00:44:24,880
The crypto boom has created a new class
829
00:44:23,040 --> 00:44:26,800
of investors. High- netw worth
830
00:44:24,880 --> 00:44:28,960
individuals [music] want to diversify,
831
00:44:26,800 --> 00:44:31,599
and real estate is a safe, tangible
832
00:44:28,960 --> 00:44:34,240
asset. From luxury homes in Miami to
833
00:44:31,599 --> 00:44:36,480
condos in Dubai, Bitcoin buyers are
834
00:44:34,240 --> 00:44:38,400
making their mark. Let's look at a few
835
00:44:36,480 --> 00:44:40,960
real world examples to understand how
836
00:44:38,400 --> 00:44:43,760
crypto real estate works in practice.
837
00:44:40,960 --> 00:44:46,720
Case study one. In 2021, a luxury
838
00:44:43,760 --> 00:44:49,359
penthouse at Artee by Antonio Satario in
839
00:44:46,720 --> 00:44:52,960
Surfside, Florida made history. The
840
00:44:49,359 --> 00:44:55,440
property sold for 22.5 million paid
841
00:44:52,960 --> 00:44:57,599
entirely in cryptocurrency. The largest
842
00:44:55,440 --> 00:44:59,920
publicly known real estate transaction
843
00:44:57,599 --> 00:45:02,240
completed using digital assets at the
844
00:44:59,920 --> 00:45:04,480
time. A developer's decision to accept
845
00:45:02,240 --> 00:45:06,560
cryptocurrency had paid off. The sale
846
00:45:04,480 --> 00:45:07,760
came just weeks after the developer
847
00:45:06,560 --> 00:45:09,599
announced it [music] would begin
848
00:45:07,760 --> 00:45:11,119
accepting cryptocurrency payments
849
00:45:09,599 --> 00:45:12,960
through a partnership with blockchain
850
00:45:11,119 --> 00:45:14,560
platform Solid Block. According to
851
00:45:12,960 --> 00:45:16,480
Forbes, the [music] deal demonstrated
852
00:45:14,560 --> 00:45:18,880
that crypto was no longer just a
853
00:45:16,480 --> 00:45:20,480
speculative asset. It had become a
854
00:45:18,880 --> 00:45:23,359
viable method [music] for purchasing
855
00:45:20,480 --> 00:45:25,920
high-end real estate. Hey Study 2 in
856
00:45:23,359 --> 00:45:27,520
Dubai, one of the earliest large-scale
857
00:45:25,920 --> 00:45:29,920
experiments [music] with crypto real
858
00:45:27,520 --> 00:45:32,319
estate unfolded at Aston Plaza and
859
00:45:29,920 --> 00:45:35,040
residences located in Dubai Science
860
00:45:32,319 --> 00:45:36,720
Park. Marketed as one of the first major
861
00:45:35,040 --> 00:45:38,640
developments in the region to accept
862
00:45:36,720 --> 00:45:40,319
Bitcoin, the project [music] offered
863
00:45:38,640 --> 00:45:41,839
apartments priced directly in
864
00:45:40,319 --> 00:45:43,920
cryptocurrency,
865
00:45:41,839 --> 00:45:45,520
buyers were able to commit funds using
866
00:45:43,920 --> 00:45:47,839
Bitcoin, capturing global [music]
867
00:45:45,520 --> 00:45:50,240
attention. But the story also revealed
868
00:45:47,839 --> 00:45:53,440
the risks of innovation. Originally
869
00:45:50,240 --> 00:45:55,760
advertised as a $325 million
870
00:45:53,440 --> 00:45:58,079
development, the project later stalled
871
00:45:55,760 --> 00:46:00,480
and its completion became uncertain.
872
00:45:58,079 --> 00:46:03,040
While crypto payments were accepted, it
873
00:46:00,480 --> 00:46:05,680
remains unclear whether all buyers
874
00:46:03,040 --> 00:46:07,520
ultimately received finished properties.
875
00:46:05,680 --> 00:46:09,839
The case highlighted both the promise
876
00:46:07,520 --> 00:46:13,280
and the pitfalls of early crypto
877
00:46:09,839 --> 00:46:15,760
adoption real estate. Case study 3. In
878
00:46:13,280 --> 00:46:17,520
2025, Spain recorded one of its first
879
00:46:15,760 --> 00:46:20,079
officially reported property sales
880
00:46:17,520 --> 00:46:22,800
completed with Bitcoin. A property in
881
00:46:20,079 --> 00:46:24,720
Madrid valued at approximately 1.5
882
00:46:22,800 --> 00:46:26,960
million of euros was purchased by an
883
00:46:24,720 --> 00:46:28,880
international buyer using Bitcoin. The
884
00:46:26,960 --> 00:46:31,920
transaction followed standard real
885
00:46:28,880 --> 00:46:34,240
estate procedures including escrow legal
886
00:46:31,920 --> 00:46:36,640
compliance and the conversion of crypto
887
00:46:34,240 --> 00:46:38,400
into euros for the seller. It marked a
888
00:46:36,640 --> 00:46:40,160
significant milestone showing that
889
00:46:38,400 --> 00:46:42,000
cryptocurrency could integrate into
890
00:46:40,160 --> 00:46:43,920
traditional real [music] estate systems
891
00:46:42,000 --> 00:46:46,720
even in highly regulated European
892
00:46:43,920 --> 00:46:49,040
markets. Case study four in the United
893
00:46:46,720 --> 00:46:51,680
States crypto adoption hasn't been
894
00:46:49,040 --> 00:46:54,000
limited to coastal tech hubs. An agent
895
00:46:51,680 --> 00:46:56,240
with Sothabis International Realy in
896
00:46:54,000 --> 00:46:59,359
Delaware reported selling a luxury
897
00:46:56,240 --> 00:47:01,280
property for $175 million paid in
898
00:46:59,359 --> 00:47:03,280
Bitcoin. Believed to be one of the
899
00:47:01,280 --> 00:47:05,680
state's first major real estate
900
00:47:03,280 --> 00:47:07,839
transactions involving cryptocurrency,
901
00:47:05,680 --> 00:47:10,079
the sale was widely publicized as a
902
00:47:07,839 --> 00:47:11,599
local milestone, signaling that crypto
903
00:47:10,079 --> 00:47:14,079
real estate was beginning to reach
904
00:47:11,599 --> 00:47:17,560
beyond niche markets and into everyday
905
00:47:14,079 --> 00:47:17,560
property transactions.
906
00:47:18,147 --> 00:47:21,720
>> [music]
907
00:47:18,319 --> 00:47:21,720
>> Genius Act.
908
00:47:22,732 --> 00:47:24,752
[music]
909
00:47:33,760 --> 00:47:37,720
different stable coins.
910
00:47:47,839 --> 00:47:50,839
Evolution
911
00:47:55,440 --> 00:47:58,440
motion.
912
00:48:16,160 --> 00:48:19,160
Maximum.
913
00:48:30,480 --> 00:48:33,480
forract.
914
00:49:09,200 --> 00:49:13,760
Taken together, these cases tell a
915
00:49:11,119 --> 00:49:15,920
larger story, one of experimentation,
916
00:49:13,760 --> 00:49:18,319
success, setbacks, and growing
917
00:49:15,920 --> 00:49:20,559
legitimacy. Crypto real estate is no
918
00:49:18,319 --> 00:49:22,720
longer hypothetical. It's happening
919
00:49:20,559 --> 00:49:26,559
transaction by transaction across the
920
00:49:22,720 --> 00:49:28,400
globe. But it's not all smooth sailing.
921
00:49:26,559 --> 00:49:30,800
Crypto's value can be volatile,
922
00:49:28,400 --> 00:49:33,280
regulations vary by country, and tax
923
00:49:30,800 --> 00:49:35,520
implications can be tricky. First,
924
00:49:33,280 --> 00:49:37,760
volatility. Bitcoin and other
925
00:49:35,520 --> 00:49:39,520
cryptocurrencies can move dramatically,
926
00:49:37,760 --> 00:49:41,359
sometimes losing or gaining a third of
927
00:49:39,520 --> 00:49:43,680
their value in weeks. For buyers who
928
00:49:41,359 --> 00:49:47,119
convert at closing, rapid swings can
929
00:49:43,680 --> 00:49:50,240
erase gains or spike costs in hours.
930
00:49:47,119 --> 00:49:52,400
Second, transaction mechanics and title.
931
00:49:50,240 --> 00:49:54,400
Even when a seller accepts crypto, most
932
00:49:52,400 --> 00:49:55,839
governments and land registries require
933
00:49:54,400 --> 00:49:58,240
deeds to be issued in the local
934
00:49:55,839 --> 00:50:00,480
currency. That usually means an
935
00:49:58,240 --> 00:50:02,319
intermediary converts crypto to fiat
936
00:50:00,480 --> 00:50:04,559
before the legal title is registered,
937
00:50:02,319 --> 00:50:06,240
adding counterparty risk and an extra
938
00:50:04,559 --> 00:50:09,200
step that can delay and complicate
939
00:50:06,240 --> 00:50:10,880
settlements. Third, taxes. In many
940
00:50:09,200 --> 00:50:12,960
jurisdictions, authorities treat crypto
941
00:50:10,880 --> 00:50:14,880
as property, not currency, which makes
942
00:50:12,960 --> 00:50:17,200
nearly every transfer a taxable event.
943
00:50:14,880 --> 00:50:19,280
that includes sales, exchanges, and
944
00:50:17,200 --> 00:50:21,520
sometimes even payments for goods or
945
00:50:19,280 --> 00:50:23,839
services. Buyers and sellers must track
946
00:50:21,520 --> 00:50:25,920
cost basis, gains, and report the
947
00:50:23,839 --> 00:50:28,559
transactions accurately or face audits
948
00:50:25,920 --> 00:50:30,400
and penalties. Fourth, lending and
949
00:50:28,559 --> 00:50:32,000
counterparty risk. Cryptobacked lending
950
00:50:30,400 --> 00:50:33,839
exploded in the previous market cycle,
951
00:50:32,000 --> 00:50:36,079
but it ended with high-profile collapses
952
00:50:33,839 --> 00:50:37,920
and bankruptcies. When platforms fail,
953
00:50:36,079 --> 00:50:39,839
borrowers and depositors can lose access
954
00:50:37,920 --> 00:50:41,520
to funds. Collateral can be liquidated
955
00:50:39,839 --> 00:50:43,359
at a loss and promise liquidity
956
00:50:41,520 --> 00:50:45,200
disappears, a danger for anyone relying
957
00:50:43,359 --> 00:50:47,359
on thirdparty services to bridge crypto
958
00:50:45,200 --> 00:50:48,720
and property purchases.
959
00:50:47,359 --> 00:50:51,280
Fifth, compliance and
960
00:50:48,720 --> 00:50:52,880
anti-moneyaundering rules. Regulators
961
00:50:51,280 --> 00:50:54,800
and global bodies have tightened rules
962
00:50:52,880 --> 00:50:57,040
around virtual assets to prevent illicit
963
00:50:54,800 --> 00:50:59,359
flows. Real estate transactions are high
964
00:50:57,040 --> 00:51:01,119
on that list, meaning additional KYC,
965
00:50:59,359 --> 00:51:03,200
source of fund checks, and reporting
966
00:51:01,119 --> 00:51:05,040
requirements. Failure to meet these
967
00:51:03,200 --> 00:51:07,280
standards can stall a sale, trigger
968
00:51:05,040 --> 00:51:10,480
investigations, or expose participants
969
00:51:07,280 --> 00:51:12,720
to legal liability. Sixth, operational
970
00:51:10,480 --> 00:51:14,559
and technical risk. Crypto transactions
971
00:51:12,720 --> 00:51:16,160
are irreversible. A single wrong
972
00:51:14,559 --> 00:51:17,760
character in a wallet address or a
973
00:51:16,160 --> 00:51:19,520
fishing attack on an email with wiring
974
00:51:17,760 --> 00:51:20,880
instructions can send millions to the
975
00:51:19,520 --> 00:51:22,800
wrong place, and there's no bank to
976
00:51:20,880 --> 00:51:24,640
reverse the transfer. Seventh,
977
00:51:22,800 --> 00:51:26,720
technology risk, smart contracts,
978
00:51:24,640 --> 00:51:28,640
tokenization, and new platforms bring
979
00:51:26,720 --> 00:51:30,400
innovation, but also software bugs and
980
00:51:28,640 --> 00:51:32,559
design flaws. A poorly written smart
981
00:51:30,400 --> 00:51:34,800
contract or an unodudited tokenization
982
00:51:32,559 --> 00:51:37,599
platform can freeze assets, misallocate
983
00:51:34,800 --> 00:51:40,240
ownership shares or enable exploits.
984
00:51:37,599 --> 00:51:41,920
Finally, market and reputational risk.
985
00:51:40,240 --> 00:51:43,599
Developers and brokers who accept crypto
986
00:51:41,920 --> 00:51:45,440
can attract new buyers, but they also
987
00:51:43,599 --> 00:51:47,119
take on greater scrutiny, regulatory
988
00:51:45,440 --> 00:51:48,960
compliance burdens, and the risk that
989
00:51:47,119 --> 00:51:51,200
projects promoted with crypto funding
990
00:51:48,960 --> 00:51:54,160
may underdel, stall, or become entangled
991
00:51:51,200 --> 00:51:56,480
in legal disputes. In short, crypto can
992
00:51:54,160 --> 00:51:59,119
speed and globalize property deals, but
993
00:51:56,480 --> 00:52:01,760
it also layers on volatility, regulatory
994
00:51:59,119 --> 00:52:03,839
complexity, and new failure modes for
995
00:52:01,760 --> 00:52:06,160
buyers, sellers, and advisers. The
996
00:52:03,839 --> 00:52:08,000
lesson is clear. Proceed with rigorous
997
00:52:06,160 --> 00:52:10,559
legal counsel, hardened custody
998
00:52:08,000 --> 00:52:12,559
practices, and transparent compliance.
999
00:52:10,559 --> 00:52:15,559
The opportunity is real, but so are the
1000
00:52:12,559 --> 00:52:15,559
pitfalls.
1001
00:52:34,160 --> 00:52:39,280
Still, the opportunities are huge. A new
1002
00:52:37,200 --> 00:52:41,119
generation of buyers is turning digital
1003
00:52:39,280 --> 00:52:44,240
value into physical assets. [music] For
1004
00:52:41,119 --> 00:52:46,880
many, Bitcoin isn't just a currency.
1005
00:52:44,240 --> 00:52:48,160
It's a gateway to ownership.
1006
00:52:46,880 --> 00:52:49,359
One of the biggest shifts is
1007
00:52:48,160 --> 00:52:51,520
tokenization. [music]
1008
00:52:49,359 --> 00:52:53,440
Instead of buying an entire building,
1009
00:52:51,520 --> 00:52:54,079
investors can now purchase fractional
1010
00:52:53,440 --> 00:52:56,559
ownership [music]
1011
00:52:54,079 --> 00:52:58,319
through blockchainbased tokens. This
1012
00:52:56,559 --> 00:53:00,319
lowers the barrier to entry, allowing
1013
00:52:58,319 --> 00:53:01,920
smaller investors to access real estate
1014
00:53:00,319 --> 00:53:06,200
markets that were once reserved for
1015
00:53:01,920 --> 00:53:06,200
institutions and the ultra wealthy.
1016
00:53:12,240 --> 00:53:15,240
for
1017
00:53:17,091 --> 00:53:19,111
[music]
1018
00:53:25,606 --> 00:53:27,626
[music]
1019
00:53:39,040 --> 00:53:41,359
important.
1020
00:53:49,842 --> 00:53:53,680
>> [music]
1021
00:53:50,800 --> 00:53:55,680
>> Tokenization also brings liquidity to an
1022
00:53:53,680 --> 00:53:58,079
industry that has traditionally been
1023
00:53:55,680 --> 00:54:00,480
slow [music] and illquid. Real estate
1024
00:53:58,079 --> 00:54:02,559
transactions can take months. Tokenized
1025
00:54:00,480 --> 00:54:05,280
shares can potentially be transferred in
1026
00:54:02,559 --> 00:54:07,599
minutes. Crypto is also reshaping
1027
00:54:05,280 --> 00:54:09,680
crossber real estate. International
1028
00:54:07,599 --> 00:54:12,480
buyers often face currency controls,
1029
00:54:09,680 --> 00:54:14,559
wire delays, and banking restrictions.
1030
00:54:12,480 --> 00:54:16,042
Cryptocurrency allows capital to move
1031
00:54:14,559 --> 00:54:18,000
globally with fewer friction points,
1032
00:54:16,042 --> 00:54:20,240
[music] opening markets to buyers who
1033
00:54:18,000 --> 00:54:22,000
were previously locked out. As a result,
1034
00:54:20,240 --> 00:54:23,599
cities that embrace crypto-friendly
1035
00:54:22,000 --> 00:54:25,440
regulations are attracting global
1036
00:54:23,599 --> 00:54:26,880
capital faster. Developers are
1037
00:54:25,440 --> 00:54:28,800
responding by marketing properties
1038
00:54:26,880 --> 00:54:31,359
directly to crypto holders, not as a
1039
00:54:28,800 --> 00:54:33,200
novelty, but as a strategy. Governments
1040
00:54:31,359 --> 00:54:35,119
are also exploring blockchain for land
1041
00:54:33,200 --> 00:54:37,200
registries and property records.
1042
00:54:35,119 --> 00:54:39,200
Immutable ledgers can reduce disputes,
1043
00:54:37,200 --> 00:54:41,599
prevent title fraud, and provide [music]
1044
00:54:39,200 --> 00:54:43,119
permanent verifiable ownership history,
1045
00:54:41,599 --> 00:54:45,359
especially in regions where property
1046
00:54:43,119 --> 00:54:47,119
rights are difficult to enforce. This
1047
00:54:45,359 --> 00:54:49,119
isn't a complete replacement of
1048
00:54:47,119 --> 00:54:50,240
traditional real estate. It's a
1049
00:54:49,119 --> 00:54:51,599
transformation. [music]
1050
00:54:50,240 --> 00:54:54,079
Crypto doesn't eliminate the
1051
00:54:51,599 --> 00:54:55,839
fundamentals. Location, demand, and due
1052
00:54:54,079 --> 00:54:57,760
diligence still matter, but it changes
1053
00:54:55,839 --> 00:54:59,599
how value moves, how quickly deals
1054
00:54:57,760 --> 00:55:01,599
happen, and who gets [music] access. So,
1055
00:54:59,599 --> 00:55:03,760
what does all of this mean for you as an
1056
00:55:01,599 --> 00:55:05,440
investor or future home buyer? It means
1057
00:55:03,760 --> 00:55:07,359
new opportunities are emerging.
1058
00:55:05,440 --> 00:55:09,040
Opportunities to leverage your crypto
1059
00:55:07,359 --> 00:55:11,359
holdings. Opportunities [music] to
1060
00:55:09,040 --> 00:55:13,760
participate in international markets
1061
00:55:11,359 --> 00:55:15,200
more easily. Opportunities to acquire
1062
00:55:13,760 --> 00:55:18,200
property faster and more [music]
1063
00:55:15,200 --> 00:55:18,200
efficiently.
1064
00:55:33,988 --> 00:55:36,008
>> [music]
1065
00:55:50,079 --> 00:55:52,480
>> Sophistic.
1066
00:55:55,520 --> 00:55:57,839
consequenc
1067
00:56:08,400 --> 00:56:11,640
Real estate
1068
00:56:17,359 --> 00:56:19,893
system. [music]
1069
00:56:23,280 --> 00:56:26,280
Fore
1070
00:56:28,354 --> 00:56:30,374
[music]
1071
00:56:40,144 --> 00:56:42,164
[music]
1072
00:56:45,384 --> 00:56:47,404
[music]
1073
00:56:48,480 --> 00:56:51,640
real estate.
1074
00:56:57,760 --> 00:57:02,559
But like any emerging space, education
1075
00:57:00,449 --> 00:57:05,119
[music] is key. Working with crypto
1076
00:57:02,559 --> 00:57:07,599
friendly agents, attorneys, and escrow
1077
00:57:05,119 --> 00:57:09,760
companies is essential.
1078
00:57:07,599 --> 00:57:11,440
Understanding your local regulations is
1079
00:57:09,760 --> 00:57:13,200
crucial, and ensuring the security of
1080
00:57:11,440 --> 00:57:16,200
your crypto wallet is absolutely
1081
00:57:13,200 --> 00:57:16,200
non-negotiable.
1082
00:57:17,680 --> 00:57:20,154
The professor [music]
1083
00:57:26,649 --> 00:57:30,160
[music]
1084
00:57:27,839 --> 00:57:30,160
sophistic
1085
00:57:36,480 --> 00:57:39,480
Financchech.
1086
00:57:40,404 --> 00:57:42,424
[music]
1087
00:57:50,229 --> 00:57:52,249
[music]
1088
00:57:58,160 --> 00:58:00,765
experenc. [music]
1089
00:58:12,500 --> 00:58:14,520
[music]
1090
00:58:24,945 --> 00:58:26,965
[music]
1091
00:58:29,200 --> 00:58:32,200
Fundamentas
1092
00:58:32,805 --> 00:58:34,825
[music]
1093
00:58:41,320 --> 00:58:43,340
[music]
1094
00:58:57,200 --> 00:58:59,359
physical.
1095
00:59:05,555 --> 00:59:07,575
>> [music]
1096
00:59:20,000 --> 00:59:24,000
>> The cryptocurrency market has entered
1097
00:59:21,920 --> 00:59:26,640
the opening days of 2026 [music] with
1098
00:59:24,000 --> 00:59:29,359
renewed momentum after a volatile end to
1099
00:59:26,640 --> 00:59:30,960
2025. Five. Prices across major digital
1100
00:59:29,359 --> 00:59:32,559
assets have moved sharply higher,
1101
00:59:30,960 --> 00:59:35,200
drawing attention from both retail
1102
00:59:32,559 --> 00:59:37,520
traders and institutional investors. In
1103
00:59:35,200 --> 00:59:39,440
early January, the total cryptocurrency
1104
00:59:37,520 --> 00:59:40,240
market capitalization climbed to around
1105
00:59:39,440 --> 00:59:42,640
$3.2 [music]
1106
00:59:40,240 --> 00:59:44,559
trillion, according to aggregated data
1107
00:59:42,640 --> 00:59:46,240
from major market trackers. This
1108
00:59:44,559 --> 00:59:48,880
represents a meaningful rebound from
1109
00:59:46,240 --> 00:59:50,640
late 2025 levels with the market adding
1110
00:59:48,880 --> 00:59:52,559
hundreds of billions of dollars in value
1111
00:59:50,640 --> 00:59:53,920
over a relatively short period. While
1112
00:59:52,559 --> 00:59:55,680
exact figures vary, [music] the
1113
00:59:53,920 --> 00:59:57,280
direction is clear. Capital has returned
1114
00:59:55,680 --> 00:59:58,880
to the crypto market at the start of the
1115
00:59:57,280 --> 01:00:00,319
year. At the center of this move is
1116
00:59:58,880 --> 01:00:02,720
Bitcoin, [music] which rallied toward
1117
01:00:00,319 --> 01:00:05,119
the $93,000 level in the first week of
1118
01:00:02,720 --> 01:00:07,126
January. As the largest and most
1119
01:00:05,119 --> 01:00:08,799
influential digital asset, Bitcoin
1120
01:00:07,126 --> 01:00:10,480
[music] continues to act as the market's
1121
01:00:08,799 --> 01:00:12,319
primary anchor, and its strength has
1122
01:00:10,480 --> 01:00:15,359
helped lift sentiment across the broader
1123
01:00:12,319 --> 01:00:17,520
ecosystem. Historically, strong Bitcoin
1124
01:00:15,359 --> 01:00:19,119
performance has often preceded periods
1125
01:00:17,520 --> 01:00:21,440
of [music] increased activity in
1126
01:00:19,119 --> 01:00:23,359
alternative cryptocurrencies, and early
1127
01:00:21,440 --> 01:00:25,599
2026 appears [music] to be following a
1128
01:00:23,359 --> 01:00:26,799
similar pattern. Another key factor has
1129
01:00:25,599 --> 01:00:28,880
been renewed institutional
1130
01:00:26,799 --> 01:00:30,720
participation, particularly through spot
1131
01:00:28,880 --> 01:00:33,119
Bitcoin and Ethereum exchange traded
1132
01:00:30,720 --> 01:00:35,440
funds. Reports from early January
1133
01:00:33,119 --> 01:00:37,119
indicate notable ETF inflows, suggesting
1134
01:00:35,440 --> 01:00:39,040
that traditional investors are once
1135
01:00:37,119 --> 01:00:41,040
again increasing exposure to digital
1136
01:00:39,040 --> 01:00:42,799
assets. The current momentum appears to
1137
01:00:41,040 --> 01:00:44,400
be driven by a combination of factors,
1138
01:00:42,799 --> 01:00:47,359
including Bitcoin's [music]
1139
01:00:44,400 --> 01:00:49,440
price recovery, increased ETF inflows,
1140
01:00:47,359 --> 01:00:50,960
improved global risk sentiment,
1141
01:00:49,440 --> 01:00:53,359
expectations of more supportive
1142
01:00:50,960 --> 01:00:55,839
regulatory and macroeconomic conditions.
1143
01:00:53,359 --> 01:00:57,599
As 2026 begins, the cryptocurrency
1144
01:00:55,839 --> 01:00:59,760
market finds itself at a familiar
1145
01:00:57,599 --> 01:01:01,520
crossroads. Renewed optimism balanced
1146
01:00:59,760 --> 01:01:03,119
against persistent uncertainty. Whether
1147
01:01:01,520 --> 01:01:04,960
this earlier strength marks [music] the
1148
01:01:03,119 --> 01:01:06,640
beginning of a sustained trend or simply
1149
01:01:04,960 --> 01:01:08,640
another chapter in crypto's cyclical
1150
01:01:06,640 --> 01:01:11,760
nature is a question that only time will
1151
01:01:08,640 --> 01:01:14,000
answer. For now, the message from the
1152
01:01:11,760 --> 01:01:16,000
market is clear. Crypto is once [music]
1153
01:01:14,000 --> 01:01:17,599
again commanding attention. If you
1154
01:01:16,000 --> 01:01:19,680
approach crypto real estate with
1155
01:01:17,599 --> 01:01:21,440
knowledge and preparation, the rewards
1156
01:01:19,680 --> 01:01:23,920
can be extraordinary. [music]
1157
01:01:21,440 --> 01:01:26,559
Bitcoin the bricks isn't just a catchy
1158
01:01:23,920 --> 01:01:28,880
phrase. It's the future of real estate
1159
01:01:26,559 --> 01:01:31,280
investment. If you want to stay ahead of
1160
01:01:28,880 --> 01:01:33,040
the curve, now's the time to learn how
1161
01:01:31,280 --> 01:01:36,040
crypto [music] can open doors.
1162
01:01:33,040 --> 01:01:36,040
Literally.
1163
01:01:46,720 --> 01:01:49,720
Explorer
1164
01:01:51,927 --> 01:01:53,947
[music]
1165
01:01:59,359 --> 01:02:01,807
Transparence. [music]
1166
01:02:10,267 --> 01:02:12,287
[music]
1167
01:02:33,040 --> 01:02:36,640
From digital coins to physical assets,
1168
01:02:35,200 --> 01:02:38,880
from online wallets to real [music]
1169
01:02:36,640 --> 01:02:41,040
world property lines, cryptocurrency is
1170
01:02:38,880 --> 01:02:43,520
reshaping how we buy, sell, and think
1171
01:02:41,040 --> 01:02:45,040
about real estate. We are witnessing the
1172
01:02:43,520 --> 01:02:47,119
merging of two worlds. The [music]
1173
01:02:45,040 --> 01:02:49,200
oldest asset on earth and one of the
1174
01:02:47,119 --> 01:02:52,160
newest technological inventions of our
1175
01:02:49,200 --> 01:02:53,920
time. And as the future unfolds, only
1176
01:02:52,160 --> 01:02:58,359
one question remain. [music] Will
1177
01:02:53,920 --> 01:02:58,359
Bitcoin buy your next home?
1178
01:04:21,599 --> 01:04:26,960
September 2008.
1179
01:04:24,480 --> 01:04:29,599
The global financial system is on the
1180
01:04:26,960 --> 01:04:32,640
verge of a total blackout. Layman
1181
01:04:29,599 --> 01:04:36,319
Brothers has vanished. Meil Lynch is
1182
01:04:32,640 --> 01:04:38,400
gone. AIG is hemorrhaging billions every
1183
01:04:36,319 --> 01:04:40,720
hour.
1184
01:04:38,400 --> 01:04:42,640
In Washington, the halls of the Treasury
1185
01:04:40,720 --> 01:04:45,920
are filled with the smartest minds in
1186
01:04:42,640 --> 01:04:47,920
the country. But they have a problem.
1187
01:04:45,920 --> 01:04:51,119
They are staring at [music] a black box
1188
01:04:47,920 --> 01:04:54,160
of toxic debt worth trillions and no
1189
01:04:51,119 --> 01:04:57,280
tools to open it. There is only one
1190
01:04:54,160 --> 01:04:59,440
person who has the map. One person who
1191
01:04:57,280 --> 01:05:02,160
spent the last 20 years [music] building
1192
01:04:59,440 --> 01:05:04,559
a digital unblinking eye that can see
1193
01:05:02,160 --> 01:05:06,079
through the wreckage. The government
1194
01:05:04,559 --> 01:05:08,319
didn't call the [music] big banks to
1195
01:05:06,079 --> 01:05:10,880
save the world. They needed someone to
1196
01:05:08,319 --> 01:05:12,640
handle the toxic waste. And there was
1197
01:05:10,880 --> 01:05:14,480
only one man that could lead through
1198
01:05:12,640 --> 01:05:18,920
that darkness.
1199
01:05:14,480 --> 01:05:18,920
They called Larry Frink.
1200
01:05:20,319 --> 01:05:25,960
Larry Frink, the man behind Black Rock.
1201
01:05:26,720 --> 01:05:33,200
Today, he manages more money than the
1202
01:05:28,880 --> 01:05:35,440
GDP of almost every nation on Earth, $14
1203
01:05:33,200 --> 01:05:37,440
trillion. [music]
1204
01:05:35,440 --> 01:05:39,760
But before he was the shadow sovereign
1205
01:05:37,440 --> 01:05:41,440
of Wall Street, he was a man who lost
1206
01:05:39,760 --> 01:05:43,839
everything.
1207
01:05:41,440 --> 01:05:46,400
Who is Larry Frink? [music]
1208
01:05:43,839 --> 01:05:48,240
Lawrence D.Fin, also known as Larry
1209
01:05:46,400 --> 01:05:51,280
Frink, is [music] one of the co-founders
1210
01:05:48,240 --> 01:05:54,079
of Black Rockck. He is also the chairman
1211
01:05:51,280 --> 01:05:55,680
and CEO of the company, the largest
1212
01:05:54,079 --> 01:05:58,880
money [music] management firm in the
1213
01:05:55,680 --> 01:06:00,640
world. It's the first time in history a
1214
01:05:58,880 --> 01:06:03,280
company manages to reach such a
1215
01:06:00,640 --> 01:06:05,760
milestone and gives a clear picture of
1216
01:06:03,280 --> 01:06:08,400
how Black Rockck [music] operates. Not
1217
01:06:05,760 --> 01:06:10,720
just a traditional investment bank, but
1218
01:06:08,400 --> 01:06:12,480
as a central pillar of the global
1219
01:06:10,720 --> 01:06:14,720
financial infrastructure, [music]
1220
01:06:12,480 --> 01:06:17,200
where its sheer scale allows it to
1221
01:06:14,720 --> 01:06:19,280
influence economies and industries at a
1222
01:06:17,200 --> 01:06:22,400
level previously reserved only for
1223
01:06:19,280 --> 01:06:25,359
nation states. [music]
1224
01:06:22,400 --> 01:06:28,319
Founded in 1988 as an investment firm
1225
01:06:25,359 --> 01:06:29,520
that prioritized risk management with
1226
01:06:28,319 --> 01:06:32,720
11.5 [music]
1227
01:06:29,520 --> 01:06:35,680
to 14 trillion under management, Black
1228
01:06:32,720 --> 01:06:37,200
Rockck's influence is staggering.
1229
01:06:35,680 --> 01:06:39,839
BlackRock [music] is a top three
1230
01:06:37,200 --> 01:06:43,920
shareholder in nearly every company in
1231
01:06:39,839 --> 01:06:47,039
the S&P 500 from Apple [music] to Exxon,
1232
01:06:43,920 --> 01:06:50,079
from Microsoft to Nestle. They don't
1233
01:06:47,039 --> 01:06:51,839
just invest in the market, they are the
1234
01:06:50,079 --> 01:06:54,541
market.
1235
01:06:51,839 --> 01:06:56,960
But its reach is personal. It holds
1236
01:06:54,541 --> 01:06:59,359
[music] the retirement dreams of over 35
1237
01:06:56,960 --> 01:07:01,920
million Americans. This is the [music]
1238
01:06:59,359 --> 01:07:04,559
story of how a kid from a California
1239
01:07:01,920 --> 01:07:09,039
shoe store became the custodian of the
1240
01:07:04,559 --> 01:07:10,160
world's wealth. But who is Larry Frink?
1241
01:07:09,039 --> 01:07:12,720
Lawrence Douglas [music]
1242
01:07:10,160 --> 01:07:15,200
Frink entered the world on November the
1243
01:07:12,720 --> 01:07:17,599
2nd, 1952.
1244
01:07:15,200 --> 01:07:19,760
Born [music] in Los Angeles, California,
1245
01:07:17,599 --> 01:07:21,680
he was raised in a Jewish family in the
1246
01:07:19,760 --> 01:07:24,240
heart of San Fernando Valley, [music]
1247
01:07:21,680 --> 01:07:26,480
the quintessential American suburb of
1248
01:07:24,240 --> 01:07:28,079
Vanois.
1249
01:07:26,480 --> 01:07:31,280
His home was a balance of [music]
1250
01:07:28,079 --> 01:07:33,359
academic discipline and retail grit. His
1251
01:07:31,280 --> 01:07:35,280
mother, Leela, was an English professor
1252
01:07:33,359 --> 01:07:37,119
who valued the power [music] of language
1253
01:07:35,280 --> 01:07:39,039
and education.
1254
01:07:37,119 --> 01:07:41,359
And long before he pulled the strings of
1255
01:07:39,039 --> 01:07:43,200
the global economy, Larry Frink was
1256
01:07:41,359 --> 01:07:45,119
learning the value of money [music] on a
1257
01:07:43,200 --> 01:07:48,000
much smaller scale.
1258
01:07:45,119 --> 01:07:50,160
his father's shoe store in Vanoise where
1259
01:07:48,000 --> 01:07:52,799
he spent evenings helping and learning
1260
01:07:50,160 --> 01:07:55,039
the business. As one [music] of three
1261
01:07:52,799 --> 01:07:56,766
children, Larry grew up in a household
1262
01:07:55,039 --> 01:07:57,599
where hard work wasn't just encouraged,
1263
01:07:56,766 --> 01:07:59,680
[music]
1264
01:07:57,599 --> 01:08:01,760
it was the baseline.
1265
01:07:59,680 --> 01:08:03,760
While he often joked he wasn't the
1266
01:08:01,760 --> 01:08:05,440
smartest in the room, it was this
1267
01:08:03,760 --> 01:08:08,079
specific [music] combination of his
1268
01:08:05,440 --> 01:08:10,480
mother's intellectual curiosity and his
1269
01:08:08,079 --> 01:08:12,640
father's mainstream business sense that
1270
01:08:10,480 --> 01:08:15,599
would eventually form the DNA of [music]
1271
01:08:12,640 --> 01:08:17,120
a global financial giant. While the
1272
01:08:15,599 --> 01:08:19,199
future titans of Wall Street [music]
1273
01:08:17,120 --> 01:08:23,040
were rubbing elbows in the marble halls
1274
01:08:19,199 --> 01:08:24,560
of Harvard or Yale, Think was a brewin.
1275
01:08:23,040 --> 01:08:27,120
In 1970, [music]
1276
01:08:24,560 --> 01:08:29,279
Larry arrived at UCLA.
1277
01:08:27,120 --> 01:08:32,080
For a young man from Vanoise, [music]
1278
01:08:29,279 --> 01:08:34,480
this wasn't just a local university. It
1279
01:08:32,080 --> 01:08:36,640
was a world of ideas.
1280
01:08:34,480 --> 01:08:38,880
But it was in his final years that the
1281
01:08:36,640 --> 01:08:40,719
trajectory of his life shifted. [music]
1282
01:08:38,880 --> 01:08:43,040
He immersed himself in political
1283
01:08:40,719 --> 01:08:45,920
science, learning how power moves
1284
01:08:43,040 --> 01:08:47,839
through nations. But he soon realized
1285
01:08:45,920 --> 01:08:50,480
that in the modern [music] world, power
1286
01:08:47,839 --> 01:08:52,239
follows the money. This led him to the
1287
01:08:50,480 --> 01:08:54,799
Anderson School of Management
1288
01:08:52,239 --> 01:08:56,799
specializing [music] in real estate. It
1289
01:08:54,799 --> 01:08:58,640
was here that he began to see the world
1290
01:08:56,799 --> 01:09:00,560
through the lens of assets and [music]
1291
01:08:58,640 --> 01:09:02,480
yields.
1292
01:09:00,560 --> 01:09:04,640
This public education gave him a
1293
01:09:02,480 --> 01:09:06,799
different edge. While his [music] peers
1294
01:09:04,640 --> 01:09:09,040
at private East Coast schools were being
1295
01:09:06,799 --> 01:09:11,759
groomed for traditional corporate roles,
1296
01:09:09,040 --> 01:09:13,759
Larry was developing the outsider's eye,
1297
01:09:11,759 --> 01:09:16,000
a perspective that allowed him to see
1298
01:09:13,759 --> 01:09:20,159
opportunities in the messy, unpolished
1299
01:09:16,000 --> 01:09:20,159
corners of the bond market.
1300
01:09:20,799 --> 01:09:26,560
He graduated in 1976, [music] not with a
1301
01:09:24,080 --> 01:09:28,480
silver spoon, but with a California bred
1302
01:09:26,560 --> 01:09:30,159
ambition to take on the giants of
1303
01:09:28,480 --> 01:09:32,398
Manhattan.
1304
01:09:30,159 --> 01:09:34,560
He was a brewin headed for Wall Street,
1305
01:09:32,398 --> 01:09:38,520
[music] and the financial world had no
1306
01:09:34,560 --> 01:09:38,520
idea what was coming.
1307
01:09:38,947 --> 01:09:43,279
[music]
1308
01:09:40,640 --> 01:09:45,120
The year is 1976.
1309
01:09:43,279 --> 01:09:47,279
New York City is a grit cover
1310
01:09:45,120 --> 01:09:50,000
battlefield and Larry Frink has just
1311
01:09:47,279 --> 01:09:52,319
been handed the keys to the kingdom.
1312
01:09:50,000 --> 01:09:54,560
Goldman Sachs, the most prestigious name
1313
01:09:52,319 --> 01:09:57,840
in finance back then, has practically
1314
01:09:54,560 --> 01:10:00,880
hired him. He had passed the technical
1315
01:09:57,840 --> 01:10:02,640
tests. He had charmed the partners. All
1316
01:10:00,880 --> 01:10:05,199
that remained was a rubber stamp
1317
01:10:02,640 --> 01:10:08,640
interview with human resources.
1318
01:10:05,199 --> 01:10:11,280
But Larry, Larry wasn't just confident,
1319
01:10:08,640 --> 01:10:13,120
he was impatient. When the recruiter
1320
01:10:11,280 --> 01:10:15,600
asked for his thoughts on the firm,
1321
01:10:13,120 --> 01:10:18,239
Larry didn't give a thank you. He gave a
1322
01:10:15,600 --> 01:10:20,719
consultation. He pointed out the flaws
1323
01:10:18,239 --> 01:10:23,840
in their system. At Goldman, they wanted
1324
01:10:20,719 --> 01:10:27,159
a soldier. Larry was already acting like
1325
01:10:23,840 --> 01:10:27,159
a general.
1326
01:10:28,640 --> 01:10:34,000
In that room, the rigid Golden Way
1327
01:10:30,960 --> 01:10:36,159
clashed with the unfiltered Finink way.
1328
01:10:34,000 --> 01:10:39,520
Before he could even hail a camp back to
1329
01:10:36,159 --> 01:10:41,840
his hotel, the offer was dead. The most
1330
01:10:39,520 --> 01:10:44,159
coveted job in Wall Street history had
1331
01:10:41,840 --> 01:10:46,080
vanished. All because Larry Frink
1332
01:10:44,159 --> 01:10:49,360
couldn't stop himself from trying to fix
1333
01:10:46,080 --> 01:10:52,400
a system he hadn't even joined yet. It
1334
01:10:49,360 --> 01:10:54,880
was a crushing blow. But in the shadow
1335
01:10:52,400 --> 01:10:57,120
of that rejection, a door opened at a
1336
01:10:54,880 --> 01:10:59,600
scrappy second tier firm called First
1337
01:10:57,120 --> 01:11:02,960
Boston. It was a place with less
1338
01:10:59,600 --> 01:11:05,280
prestige but more white space. At
1339
01:11:02,960 --> 01:11:08,320
Goldman, he would have been a cog in a
1340
01:11:05,280 --> 01:11:11,199
perfect machine. At First Boston, he was
1341
01:11:08,320 --> 01:11:13,199
the architect. He was given a desk, a
1342
01:11:11,199 --> 01:11:15,520
telephone, and the freedom to build
1343
01:11:13,199 --> 01:11:18,400
something entirely new. The
1344
01:11:15,520 --> 01:11:21,120
mortgagebacked security. He didn't know
1345
01:11:18,400 --> 01:11:23,760
it yet, but that recruiters know was the
1346
01:11:21,120 --> 01:11:28,760
foundation upon which the $14 trillion
1347
01:11:23,760 --> 01:11:28,760
empire of Black Rockck would be built.
1348
01:11:33,760 --> 01:11:39,199
It's 1976 when [music] Larry Frink
1349
01:11:36,400 --> 01:11:41,520
arrives at First Boston. At the time,
1350
01:11:39,199 --> 01:11:44,159
the firm was the scrappy underdog of
1351
01:11:41,520 --> 01:11:46,640
investment banking. It wasn't as stiff
1352
01:11:44,159 --> 01:11:49,040
as Morgan [music] Stanley or as elitist
1353
01:11:46,640 --> 01:11:51,280
as Goldman. It was the perfect
1354
01:11:49,040 --> 01:11:54,480
laboratory for a man who didn't fit the
1355
01:11:51,280 --> 01:11:56,719
mold. Larry was assigned to the bond
1356
01:11:54,480 --> 01:11:58,719
department. Back then, bonds [music]
1357
01:11:56,719 --> 01:11:59,920
were considered the boring corner of
1358
01:11:58,719 --> 01:12:02,800
finance.
1359
01:11:59,920 --> 01:12:05,840
It was where you went to retire. Stocks
1360
01:12:02,800 --> 01:12:08,239
were sexy. Bonds were for grandmothers.
1361
01:12:05,840 --> 01:12:10,320
But Larry [music] saw something everyone
1362
01:12:08,239 --> 01:12:12,320
else missed.
1363
01:12:10,320 --> 01:12:14,640
He looked at the American dream, [music]
1364
01:12:12,320 --> 01:12:17,760
the suburban house, the white picket
1365
01:12:14,640 --> 01:12:19,679
fence, the 30-year mortgage, and he saw
1366
01:12:17,760 --> 01:12:21,679
a math problem.
1367
01:12:19,679 --> 01:12:24,159
He realized that if you took thousands
1368
01:12:21,679 --> 01:12:25,520
of individual home mortgages, bundled
1369
01:12:24,159 --> 01:12:28,000
them together [music] like a deck of
1370
01:12:25,520 --> 01:12:32,000
cards, and sold slices of that deck to
1371
01:12:28,000 --> 01:12:34,880
investors, you created a money machine.
1372
01:12:32,000 --> 01:12:36,400
This was the birth of the securitization
1373
01:12:34,880 --> 01:12:38,800
market.
1374
01:12:36,400 --> 01:12:41,199
What Larry Frink helped create was more
1375
01:12:38,800 --> 01:12:45,080
than a [music] financial product. It was
1376
01:12:41,199 --> 01:12:45,080
a structural shift.
1377
01:12:45,360 --> 01:12:50,400
Securitization didn't just bundle
1378
01:12:47,520 --> 01:12:53,520
mortgages. It separated risk from
1379
01:12:50,400 --> 01:12:55,360
reality. For the first time, financial
1380
01:12:53,520 --> 01:12:57,360
value could travel faster [music] than
1381
01:12:55,360 --> 01:13:00,640
the underlying economy that supported
1382
01:12:57,360 --> 01:13:02,640
it. A house in California became a line
1383
01:13:00,640 --> 01:13:05,040
in a spreadsheet in New York, which
1384
01:13:02,640 --> 01:13:08,080
became a yield sold to an investor in
1385
01:13:05,040 --> 01:13:10,515
Tokyo. Risk no longer lived where
1386
01:13:08,080 --> 01:13:11,120
decisions were made. It was abstracted,
1387
01:13:10,515 --> 01:13:13,520
[music]
1388
01:13:11,120 --> 01:13:16,239
sliced, repackaged, and distributed
1389
01:13:13,520 --> 01:13:17,840
across the system. This was the moment
1390
01:13:16,239 --> 01:13:20,480
when finance [music] stopped reflecting
1391
01:13:17,840 --> 01:13:23,520
the real economy and began building a
1392
01:13:20,480 --> 01:13:25,600
parallel one. A system that could grow
1393
01:13:23,520 --> 01:13:28,080
without limits as long as everyone
1394
01:13:25,600 --> 01:13:31,040
believed the models were right. And for
1395
01:13:28,080 --> 01:13:33,600
a while [music] they were.
1396
01:13:31,040 --> 01:13:36,159
By the early 80s, Larry was the golden
1397
01:13:33,600 --> 01:13:38,640
boy. He wasn't just hitting targets, he
1398
01:13:36,159 --> 01:13:40,800
was shattering them. In one year, his
1399
01:13:38,640 --> 01:13:42,880
department was responsible for nearly
1400
01:13:40,800 --> 01:13:46,000
onethird of First Boston's total
1401
01:13:42,880 --> 01:13:48,239
profits. At age 31, he became the
1402
01:13:46,000 --> 01:13:51,199
youngest managing director the firm had
1403
01:13:48,239 --> 01:13:53,679
ever seen. He was earning millions. He
1404
01:13:51,199 --> 01:13:56,480
was the successor for Prodigy, the man
1405
01:13:53,679 --> 01:13:59,199
who could do no wrong. He had moved to
1406
01:13:56,480 --> 01:14:01,600
his family to a sprawling estate. He was
1407
01:13:59,199 --> 01:14:02,880
flying private. He had conquered the
1408
01:14:01,600 --> 01:14:06,199
grit cover battlefield [music]
1409
01:14:02,880 --> 01:14:06,199
of Manhattan.
1410
01:14:06,719 --> 01:14:11,120
But in the world of high finance, the
1411
01:14:08,880 --> 01:14:14,120
higher you fly, the thinner the air
1412
01:14:11,120 --> 01:14:14,120
becomes.
1413
01:14:15,600 --> 01:14:19,920
Larry was making hundreds of millions
1414
01:14:17,520 --> 01:14:22,566
for the bank, but there was a ghost in
1415
01:14:19,920 --> 01:14:25,120
the machine, a variable he hadn't
1416
01:14:22,566 --> 01:14:26,640
[music] accounted for. The year was
1417
01:14:25,120 --> 01:14:28,960
1986.
1418
01:14:26,640 --> 01:14:31,679
Larry had made a massive bet on interest
1419
01:14:28,960 --> 01:14:35,280
rates. He believed they would stay
1420
01:14:31,679 --> 01:14:37,280
stable. He was so sure of his math, so
1421
01:14:35,280 --> 01:14:39,280
confident in his track record that he
1422
01:14:37,280 --> 01:14:41,679
didn't realize the ground was shifting
1423
01:14:39,280 --> 01:14:43,600
beneath his feet.
1424
01:14:41,679 --> 01:14:45,840
In just 3 months, the Golden Boys
1425
01:14:43,600 --> 01:14:49,199
department went from profit to a
1426
01:14:45,840 --> 01:14:52,000
catastrophic $100 million [music] loss.
1427
01:14:49,199 --> 01:14:54,880
In the 80s, 100 million wasn't just a
1428
01:14:52,000 --> 01:14:56,320
loss. It was a national scandal.
1429
01:14:54,880 --> 01:14:58,880
Overnight, the man who [music] was
1430
01:14:56,320 --> 01:15:01,199
supposed to run the bank was a pariah.
1431
01:14:58,880 --> 01:15:03,280
The phones stopped ringing. The friends
1432
01:15:01,199 --> 01:15:05,920
on the trading floor looked away when he
1433
01:15:03,280 --> 01:15:08,719
walked by. He had been the smartest man
1434
01:15:05,920 --> 01:15:10,719
in the room until he wasn't. [music]
1435
01:15:08,719 --> 01:15:13,920
He would later describe this moment as
1436
01:15:10,719 --> 01:15:15,840
the most painful experience of my life.
1437
01:15:13,920 --> 01:15:18,239
But as he sat in the ruins of his
1438
01:15:15,840 --> 01:15:19,679
reputation, Larry Frink wasn't just
1439
01:15:18,239 --> 01:15:23,040
mourning his career. [music]
1440
01:15:19,679 --> 01:15:25,760
He was obsessed with one question. How
1441
01:15:23,040 --> 01:15:28,239
did I not see the risk?
1442
01:15:25,760 --> 01:15:30,640
That obsession, the fear of the unknown
1443
01:15:28,239 --> 01:15:34,280
variable, would become the cornerstone
1444
01:15:30,640 --> 01:15:34,280
of Black Rockck.
1445
01:15:37,440 --> 01:15:42,477
By 1983, Larry wasn't just selling
1446
01:15:40,239 --> 01:15:43,679
bonds, he was a pioneer of the CMO,
1447
01:15:42,477 --> 01:15:48,120
[music]
1448
01:15:43,679 --> 01:15:48,120
collateralized mortgage obligation.
1449
01:15:48,320 --> 01:15:53,280
Think of it like a waterfall. Larry took
1450
01:15:51,120 --> 01:15:56,239
thousands of mortgages and sliced them
1451
01:15:53,280 --> 01:15:59,360
into tranches. Some investors took the
1452
01:15:56,239 --> 01:16:02,480
top slice, low risk, low reward. Others
1453
01:15:59,360 --> 01:16:03,760
took the bottom, high risk, high yield.
1454
01:16:02,480 --> 01:16:06,239
It was a masterpiece [music] of
1455
01:16:03,760 --> 01:16:10,000
financial engineering. It made the
1456
01:16:06,239 --> 01:16:13,199
illquid liquid. It made first Boston the
1457
01:16:10,000 --> 01:16:15,360
center of the universe.
1458
01:16:13,199 --> 01:16:18,320
But there was a flaw, a tiny
1459
01:16:15,360 --> 01:16:20,320
mathematical ghost in his models.
1460
01:16:18,320 --> 01:16:22,640
Larry's team had predicted that interest
1461
01:16:20,320 --> 01:16:25,120
rates would rise and they hedged their
1462
01:16:22,640 --> 01:16:28,159
bets accordingly. But in the second
1463
01:16:25,120 --> 01:16:30,480
quarter of 1986, rates did something the
1464
01:16:28,159 --> 01:16:32,080
models said was impossible. They
1465
01:16:30,480 --> 01:16:33,840
plummeted
1466
01:16:32,080 --> 01:16:36,159
because they didn't have a system to
1467
01:16:33,840 --> 01:16:38,320
track their real-time exposure. Larry
1468
01:16:36,159 --> 01:16:41,360
was [music] flying blind. He was the
1469
01:16:38,320 --> 01:16:44,000
pilot of a Boeing 747 trying to land in
1470
01:16:41,360 --> 01:16:46,640
a storm using nothing but a compass and
1471
01:16:44,000 --> 01:16:48,719
a prayer. By the time he realized the
1472
01:16:46,640 --> 01:16:51,280
engines were on fire, the plane had
1473
01:16:48,719 --> 01:16:52,800
already hit the [music] mountain. $100
1474
01:16:51,280 --> 01:16:56,120
million.
1475
01:16:52,800 --> 01:16:56,120
All gone.
1476
01:16:58,239 --> 01:17:03,520
He wasn't just fired, he was erased.
1477
01:17:01,440 --> 01:17:06,560
After the dust settled, Larry found
1478
01:17:03,520 --> 01:17:09,600
himself in a peculiar kind of exile. He
1479
01:17:06,560 --> 01:17:11,558
wasn't just unemployed, he was haunted.
1480
01:17:09,600 --> 01:17:14,080
He realized that the $100 million
1481
01:17:11,558 --> 01:17:16,719
[music] loss wasn't a failure of talent,
1482
01:17:14,080 --> 01:17:19,360
it was a failure of vision. What
1483
01:17:16,719 --> 01:17:20,960
happened in 1986 wasn't a personal
1484
01:17:19,360 --> 01:17:24,080
miscalculation.
1485
01:17:20,960 --> 01:17:25,968
It was a systemic blindness.
1486
01:17:24,080 --> 01:17:28,560
At the time, every major financial
1487
01:17:25,968 --> 01:17:31,863
[music] institution operated the same
1488
01:17:28,560 --> 01:17:34,320
way. Positions were fragmented. Exposure
1489
01:17:31,863 --> 01:17:37,600
[music] was estimated, not measured.
1490
01:17:34,320 --> 01:17:39,360
Risk was inferred after the fact. Banks
1491
01:17:37,600 --> 01:17:42,320
knew what they bought [music] yesterday,
1492
01:17:39,360 --> 01:17:44,800
but not what it was worth right now. The
1493
01:17:42,320 --> 01:17:47,840
system rewarded speed, volume, and
1494
01:17:44,800 --> 01:17:49,440
confidence, not understanding. And as
1495
01:17:47,840 --> 01:17:52,320
long as markets [music] moved slowly,
1496
01:17:49,440 --> 01:17:54,239
the illusion held. But once volatility
1497
01:17:52,320 --> 01:17:57,199
entered the market, no one truly [music]
1498
01:17:54,239 --> 01:17:59,920
knew where the danger was or how large
1499
01:17:57,199 --> 01:18:02,320
it had become. Larry didn't [music] just
1500
01:17:59,920 --> 01:18:03,959
lose money. He realized the entire
1501
01:18:02,320 --> 01:18:06,640
financial system was flying without
1502
01:18:03,959 --> 01:18:08,719
[music] instruments. Wall Street was
1503
01:18:06,640 --> 01:18:12,480
essentially a collection of blind
1504
01:18:08,719 --> 01:18:15,094
giants. Every major firm, Goldman,
1505
01:18:12,480 --> 01:18:16,880
Layman, Meil Lynch was standing just
1506
01:18:15,094 --> 01:18:20,800
[music] one inch away from total
1507
01:18:16,880 --> 01:18:22,719
collapse at any given second. Why?
1508
01:18:20,800 --> 01:18:25,600
Because they didn't actually know what
1509
01:18:22,719 --> 01:18:28,480
they owned. This was information
1510
01:18:25,600 --> 01:18:30,560
blindness.
1511
01:18:28,480 --> 01:18:32,800
In the [music] 1980s, you knew what you
1512
01:18:30,560 --> 01:18:35,760
bought yesterday, but you had no idea
1513
01:18:32,800 --> 01:18:38,080
what it was worth right now. A sudden
1514
01:18:35,760 --> 01:18:40,400
shift in interest rates [music] or a
1515
01:18:38,080 --> 01:18:42,800
political coup across the ocean could
1516
01:18:40,400 --> 01:18:46,080
vaporize a billion dollars before the
1517
01:18:42,800 --> 01:18:49,440
morning coffee [music] was poured.
1518
01:18:46,080 --> 01:18:52,000
Larry understood a terrifying truth. The
1519
01:18:49,440 --> 01:18:55,280
entire global financial system was built
1520
01:18:52,000 --> 01:18:57,199
on a foundation of guesswork.
1521
01:18:55,280 --> 01:18:59,840
It hit him with the force of an
1522
01:18:57,199 --> 01:19:02,159
epiphany. If he could build a [music]
1523
01:18:59,840 --> 01:19:04,640
brain, a machine that could see the risk
1524
01:19:02,159 --> 01:19:07,440
that humans were too slow to calculate,
1525
01:19:04,640 --> 01:19:09,440
he wouldn't just be a banker. He would
1526
01:19:07,440 --> 01:19:12,400
be the only man in the world with a
1527
01:19:09,440 --> 01:19:14,480
flashlight in a dark room. This
1528
01:19:12,400 --> 01:19:17,199
realization changed his entire
1529
01:19:14,480 --> 01:19:19,280
philosophy of investing. He stopped
1530
01:19:17,199 --> 01:19:21,840
looking for the big score and started
1531
01:19:19,280 --> 01:19:24,239
looking for the safe passage. He didn't
1532
01:19:21,840 --> 01:19:27,840
want to beat the market anymore. He
1533
01:19:24,239 --> 01:19:30,239
wanted to measure it.
1534
01:19:27,840 --> 01:19:33,520
He would later tell his partners, "We
1535
01:19:30,239 --> 01:19:35,600
are never going to be blind again." That
1536
01:19:33,520 --> 01:19:38,880
vow born from the humiliation [music]
1537
01:19:35,600 --> 01:19:42,000
of 1986 became the blueprint for a new
1538
01:19:38,880 --> 01:19:44,400
kind of firm. A firm that didn't rely on
1539
01:19:42,000 --> 01:19:49,320
the ego of a [music] star trader, but on
1540
01:19:44,400 --> 01:19:49,320
the cold, unblinking eye of technology.
1541
01:19:54,159 --> 01:20:00,159
Larry Frink was a man with a vision, but
1542
01:19:56,880 --> 01:20:02,000
he was also a man with a tainted resume.
1543
01:20:00,159 --> 01:20:04,719
To the rest of Wall Street, he was the
1544
01:20:02,000 --> 01:20:06,800
guy who lost a h 100red million. But to
1545
01:20:04,719 --> 01:20:09,440
a small circle of insiders at First
1546
01:20:06,800 --> 01:20:12,880
Boston, he was the only one who truly
1547
01:20:09,440 --> 01:20:15,679
understood why it happened. He began
1548
01:20:12,880 --> 01:20:18,239
making calls. He wasn't offering high
1549
01:20:15,679 --> 01:20:21,040
salaries or flashy offices. He was
1550
01:20:18,239 --> 01:20:23,199
offering a chance to build a holy grail,
1551
01:20:21,040 --> 01:20:25,440
a financial firm where technology
1552
01:20:23,199 --> 01:20:28,560
governed the ego, not the other way
1553
01:20:25,440 --> 01:20:30,680
round. And he eventually found the right
1554
01:20:28,560 --> 01:20:33,300
people to help him build that holy
1555
01:20:30,680 --> 01:20:34,320
[clears throat] grail.
1556
01:20:33,300 --> 01:20:38,400
[music]
1557
01:20:34,320 --> 01:20:40,560
Rob Capito, the enforcer, a powerhouse
1558
01:20:38,400 --> 01:20:43,199
trader who knew the plumbing of the bomb
1559
01:20:40,560 --> 01:20:45,199
market better than anyone else. He
1560
01:20:43,199 --> 01:20:48,800
provided the muscle Larry needed to
1561
01:20:45,199 --> 01:20:51,920
execute the vision. Ben Golib, the
1562
01:20:48,800 --> 01:20:54,560
Oracle, a PhD with a mind like a
1563
01:20:51,920 --> 01:20:57,360
supercomput. While other bankers were
1564
01:20:54,560 --> 01:20:59,840
focused on lunch reservations, Golib was
1565
01:20:57,360 --> 01:21:02,560
thinking about value at risk and Monte
1566
01:20:59,840 --> 01:21:06,080
Carlo simulations.
1567
01:21:02,560 --> 01:21:08,480
Susan Wagner, the mastermind,
1568
01:21:06,080 --> 01:21:10,080
brilliant, calculating, and capable of
1569
01:21:08,480 --> 01:21:12,320
seeing structural flaws in a
1570
01:21:10,080 --> 01:21:14,640
multi-billion dollar merger before a
1571
01:21:12,320 --> 01:21:17,280
single paper was signed. Along with
1572
01:21:14,640 --> 01:21:19,520
Barbara Novik, Ralph Schloststein, Q
1573
01:21:17,280 --> 01:21:22,719
Freighter, and Keith Anderson, they
1574
01:21:19,520 --> 01:21:24,480
became the original eight. Frink wasn't
1575
01:21:22,719 --> 01:21:27,840
looking for bankers who would run after
1576
01:21:24,480 --> 01:21:30,880
the money. He wanted architects, people
1577
01:21:27,840 --> 01:21:32,880
who were tired of being blind.
1578
01:21:30,880 --> 01:21:35,520
When he found them, they met in living
1579
01:21:32,880 --> 01:21:37,440
rooms and coffee shops. They had the
1580
01:21:35,520 --> 01:21:40,400
blueprints for a system they called
1581
01:21:37,440 --> 01:21:43,199
Aladdin, an acronym for asset,
1582
01:21:40,400 --> 01:21:46,159
liability, debt, and derivative
1583
01:21:43,199 --> 01:21:48,640
investment network. It was designed to
1584
01:21:46,159 --> 01:21:50,800
be the unblinking eye Larry had dreamed
1585
01:21:48,640 --> 01:21:52,960
of in his exile.
1586
01:21:50,800 --> 01:21:55,840
But a brain without a body is just a
1587
01:21:52,960 --> 01:21:59,199
dream. To build Aladdin, they needed
1588
01:21:55,840 --> 01:22:00,960
hardware. They needed offices. And most
1589
01:21:59,199 --> 01:22:03,520
importantly, they needed the one thing
1590
01:22:00,960 --> 01:22:06,080
Larry's reputation had cost him.
1591
01:22:03,520 --> 01:22:08,320
Capital. Aladdin was not designed to
1592
01:22:06,080 --> 01:22:10,719
beat the market. It was designed to
1593
01:22:08,320 --> 01:22:13,600
understand it. But its real power
1594
01:22:10,719 --> 01:22:16,880
emerged when others started using it.
1595
01:22:13,600 --> 01:22:19,920
Banks, insurance companies, pension
1596
01:22:16,880 --> 01:22:22,080
funds, sovereign institutions. As
1597
01:22:19,920 --> 01:22:25,600
Aladdin spread, something subtle
1598
01:22:22,080 --> 01:22:28,639
happened. Risk stopped being subjective.
1599
01:22:25,600 --> 01:22:31,199
It became standardized. When Aladdin
1600
01:22:28,639 --> 01:22:35,239
flagged an asset as dangerous, entire
1601
01:22:31,199 --> 01:22:35,239
markets adjusted accordingly.
1602
01:22:35,360 --> 01:22:40,719
Not because Larry Frink said so, but
1603
01:22:37,760 --> 01:22:42,560
because the system trusted the model. At
1604
01:22:40,719 --> 01:22:45,040
that point, Black Rockck was no longer
1605
01:22:42,560 --> 01:22:46,922
just managing money. It was helping
1606
01:22:45,040 --> 01:22:48,159
define how risk itself was understood.
1607
01:22:46,922 --> 01:22:50,560
[music]
1608
01:22:48,159 --> 01:22:54,280
And whoever defines risk defines the
1609
01:22:50,560 --> 01:22:54,280
boundaries of decisionmaking.
1610
01:23:02,800 --> 01:23:08,239
Enter Steven Schwartzman. In 1988,
1611
01:23:06,080 --> 01:23:11,360
Schwartzman was the rising king of
1612
01:23:08,239 --> 01:23:15,040
private equity. His firm Blackstone was
1613
01:23:11,360 --> 01:23:17,679
aggressive, wealthy, and hungry.
1614
01:23:15,040 --> 01:23:20,800
The meeting was tense. Schwartzman knew
1615
01:23:17,679 --> 01:23:24,239
Larry's history. He knew about the 1986
1616
01:23:20,800 --> 01:23:27,920
disaster. But Larry didn't hide from it.
1617
01:23:24,239 --> 01:23:29,920
He used it as his primary selling point.
1618
01:23:27,920 --> 01:23:31,920
Because Larry had seen the end of the
1619
01:23:29,920 --> 01:23:34,239
world already, [music] he knew exactly
1620
01:23:31,920 --> 01:23:36,320
how the lights went out. And because of
1621
01:23:34,239 --> 01:23:38,800
that, he was the only one who knew how
1622
01:23:36,320 --> 01:23:41,520
to keep them on.
1623
01:23:38,800 --> 01:23:43,520
Larry's pitch was revolutionary. He
1624
01:23:41,520 --> 01:23:46,400
didn't want to start a hedge fund. He
1625
01:23:43,520 --> 01:23:48,480
wanted to create a fiduciary company.
1626
01:23:46,400 --> 01:23:50,719
a firm that managed other people's money
1627
01:23:48,480 --> 01:23:54,000
with the same technological rigor
1628
01:23:50,719 --> 01:23:56,400
usually reserved for NASA. He asked for
1629
01:23:54,000 --> 01:23:59,120
a $5 million credit line and a
1630
01:23:56,400 --> 01:24:02,159
partnership. In exchange, Schwartzman
1631
01:23:59,120 --> 01:24:03,920
would own 50% of the new venture. He
1632
01:24:02,159 --> 01:24:06,320
knew he was buying cheap [music] because
1633
01:24:03,920 --> 01:24:09,199
he was buying on a distressed asset,
1634
01:24:06,320 --> 01:24:11,199
Think's damaged reputation.
1635
01:24:09,199 --> 01:24:12,800
But he did so betting on the idea that
1636
01:24:11,199 --> 01:24:14,880
the [music] experience had turned Larry
1637
01:24:12,800 --> 01:24:17,840
Frink into some sort of financial
1638
01:24:14,880 --> 01:24:21,120
genius.
1639
01:24:17,840 --> 01:24:23,760
The deal was done. On a Friday in March
1640
01:24:21,120 --> 01:24:25,600
1988, the team moved into a single
1641
01:24:23,760 --> 01:24:27,199
cramped room within Blackstone's [music]
1642
01:24:25,600 --> 01:24:29,840
offices.
1643
01:24:27,199 --> 01:24:31,520
They were five computers, a few folding
1644
01:24:29,840 --> 01:24:33,840
chairs, and a mountain of cables [music]
1645
01:24:31,520 --> 01:24:36,480
on the floor. They were under the
1646
01:24:33,840 --> 01:24:37,760
Blackstone umbrella, but Larry knew that
1647
01:24:36,480 --> 01:24:39,920
this was just [music] a temporary
1648
01:24:37,760 --> 01:24:43,360
shelter. He didn't just want a
1649
01:24:39,920 --> 01:24:45,920
department. He wanted an empire. He had
1650
01:24:43,360 --> 01:24:48,000
the money. He had the team. And in the
1651
01:24:45,920 --> 01:24:50,080
corner of that small room, the first
1652
01:24:48,000 --> 01:24:52,560
lines of code for Aladdin were being
1653
01:24:50,080 --> 01:24:55,520
written.
1654
01:24:52,560 --> 01:24:57,520
The information blindness was over. The
1655
01:24:55,520 --> 01:25:02,040
era of Black Rock, though it didn't have
1656
01:24:57,520 --> 01:25:02,040
that name yet, had begun.
1657
01:25:03,819 --> 01:25:05,839
>> [music]
1658
01:25:06,080 --> 01:25:11,280
>> The first office of Blackstone Financial
1659
01:25:08,400 --> 01:25:13,760
Management wasn't a glass tower. It was
1660
01:25:11,280 --> 01:25:16,080
a glorified closet. [music] Because of
1661
01:25:13,760 --> 01:25:18,239
the heat generated by the early Sun
1662
01:25:16,080 --> 01:25:20,000
Micro Systemystems workstations, the
1663
01:25:18,239 --> 01:25:24,480
temperature in the room rarely dropped
1664
01:25:20,000 --> 01:25:26,320
below 80°, [music] 27° C.
1665
01:25:24,480 --> 01:25:28,800
While the rest of the Blackstone group
1666
01:25:26,320 --> 01:25:31,199
was out at expensive lunches closing
1667
01:25:28,800 --> 01:25:33,440
leveraged buyouts, Larry's original
1668
01:25:31,199 --> 01:25:35,600
eight [music] were building a digital
1669
01:25:33,440 --> 01:25:37,879
fortress.
1670
01:25:35,600 --> 01:25:39,199
They were the weirdos in the basement.
1671
01:25:37,879 --> 01:25:42,320
[music] It was here that the name
1672
01:25:39,199 --> 01:25:44,639
Aladdin became a living thing. Every
1673
01:25:42,320 --> 01:25:47,840
day, Ben Golab and his team fed [music]
1674
01:25:44,639 --> 01:25:49,840
it data. Interest rates, housing prices,
1675
01:25:47,840 --> 01:25:51,679
historical crashes. They [music] were
1676
01:25:49,840 --> 01:25:56,840
teaching the machine to be afraid of
1677
01:25:51,679 --> 01:25:56,840
everything Larry hadn't seen in 1986.
1678
01:26:00,480 --> 01:26:04,719
By 1992, the department inside
1679
01:26:03,199 --> 01:26:07,920
Blackstone was no [music] longer a
1680
01:26:04,719 --> 01:26:11,760
startup. It was a powerhouse. Larry's
1681
01:26:07,920 --> 01:26:13,360
team was managing $17 billion.
1682
01:26:11,760 --> 01:26:15,214
They weren't just a side project
1683
01:26:13,360 --> 01:26:16,639
anymore. They were a significant
1684
01:26:15,214 --> 01:26:19,600
[singing] engine of Blackstone's [music]
1685
01:26:16,639 --> 01:26:21,120
growth. But with success came a toxic
1686
01:26:19,600 --> 01:26:23,360
byproduct,
1687
01:26:21,120 --> 01:26:26,000
identity confusion.
1688
01:26:23,360 --> 01:26:27,440
Clients were getting confused. They
1689
01:26:26,000 --> 01:26:30,080
would call [music] Blackstone looking
1690
01:26:27,440 --> 01:26:32,560
for Larry's bond expertise or call Larry
1691
01:26:30,080 --> 01:26:33,360
looking for Schwarzman's buyouts. But
1692
01:26:32,560 --> 01:26:35,840
the friction [music and singing] went
1693
01:26:33,360 --> 01:26:38,000
deeper than a name. It was a war of
1694
01:26:35,840 --> 01:26:41,440
philosophies. Schwartzman was a
1695
01:26:38,000 --> 01:26:43,840
dealmaker. He wanted to own companies.
1696
01:26:41,440 --> 01:26:46,960
Think was a fiduciary. He [music] wanted
1697
01:26:43,840 --> 01:26:49,120
to manage risk for others.
1698
01:26:46,960 --> 01:26:51,440
The tension was similar to having two
1699
01:26:49,120 --> 01:26:53,520
predators in a cage too small to fit
1700
01:26:51,440 --> 01:26:56,800
both. [music] The breaking point came
1701
01:26:53,520 --> 01:26:58,639
over equity. Larry wanted to use stock
1702
01:26:56,800 --> 01:27:01,199
to attract and keep the original [music]
1703
01:26:58,639 --> 01:27:03,840
eight and new talent. Schwarzman,
1704
01:27:01,199 --> 01:27:06,080
holding 50% of the firm, didn't want to
1705
01:27:03,840 --> 01:27:07,840
dilute his [music] state. The
1706
01:27:06,080 --> 01:27:10,890
partnership that saved Larry's career
1707
01:27:07,840 --> 01:27:11,600
was now suffocating his vision. In 1994,
1708
01:27:10,890 --> 01:27:15,280
[music]
1709
01:27:11,600 --> 01:27:17,280
they reached a deal.
1710
01:27:15,280 --> 01:27:20,715
Schwarzman agreed to sell Blackstone
1711
01:27:17,280 --> 01:27:22,159
steak for $240 million. At the time,
1712
01:27:20,715 --> 01:27:24,800
[music] it seemed like a win for
1713
01:27:22,159 --> 01:27:27,360
Schwarzman, a massive return on his $5
1714
01:27:24,800 --> 01:27:29,040
million investment. It wasn't [music]
1715
01:27:27,360 --> 01:27:31,600
just about money. It was about the
1716
01:27:29,040 --> 01:27:34,080
spotlight. Schwarzman was the king of
1717
01:27:31,600 --> 01:27:36,320
Wall Street. But his subtenant, Larry
1718
01:27:34,080 --> 01:27:39,055
Frink, was the one the New York Times
1719
01:27:36,320 --> 01:27:41,440
wanted to interview. But for Larry, it
1720
01:27:39,055 --> 01:27:43,679
[music] was the price of freedom.
1721
01:27:41,440 --> 01:27:45,440
Schwarzman would later call selling
1722
01:27:43,679 --> 01:27:48,480
Black Rockck the worst [music] mistake
1723
01:27:45,440 --> 01:27:51,040
of my career. For Larry, the divorce was
1724
01:27:48,480 --> 01:27:52,960
the moment the training wheels came off.
1725
01:27:51,040 --> 01:27:55,199
He was no longer under anyone's
1726
01:27:52,960 --> 01:27:57,840
umbrella. He was the [music] CEO of an
1727
01:27:55,199 --> 01:27:59,380
independent firm. Now he just had to
1728
01:27:57,840 --> 01:28:03,239
prove he could survive the coming storm
1729
01:27:59,380 --> 01:28:03,239
[music] of the late '90s.
1730
01:28:11,040 --> 01:28:16,880
It is 2008. The financial world was
1731
01:28:14,400 --> 01:28:19,199
experiencing a heart attack. The
1732
01:28:16,880 --> 01:28:21,440
financial smoothies that mortgage back
1733
01:28:19,199 --> 01:28:23,280
securities Larry had helped create 30
1734
01:28:21,440 --> 01:28:26,320
years earlier had turned into [music] a
1735
01:28:23,280 --> 01:28:28,639
global poison. Banks didn't know what
1736
01:28:26,320 --> 01:28:30,880
they owned, and more importantly, they
1737
01:28:28,639 --> 01:28:33,600
didn't know what their neighbors owned.
1738
01:28:30,880 --> 01:28:35,600
Trust had evaporated.
1739
01:28:33,600 --> 01:28:37,280
When the US government realized the
1740
01:28:35,600 --> 01:28:39,360
economy was on the brink of a total
1741
01:28:37,280 --> 01:28:43,280
blackout, they didn't call Goldman
1742
01:28:39,360 --> 01:28:45,679
Sachs. They didn't call JP Morgan. While
1743
01:28:43,280 --> 01:28:47,600
the CEOs of Layman and Merrill were
1744
01:28:45,679 --> 01:28:49,760
begging for government checks, Larry
1745
01:28:47,600 --> 01:28:52,000
Frink was the one the government called
1746
01:28:49,760 --> 01:28:54,239
to write the checks.
1747
01:28:52,000 --> 01:28:56,719
He was the only titan left standing with
1748
01:28:54,239 --> 01:28:58,800
a clean balance sheet.
1749
01:28:56,719 --> 01:29:00,960
The United States government didn't just
1750
01:28:58,800 --> 01:29:02,800
seek advice, it delegated
1751
01:29:00,960 --> 01:29:04,719
responsibility.
1752
01:29:02,800 --> 01:29:06,639
Black Rockck was tasked with valuing
1753
01:29:04,719 --> 01:29:09,040
assets [music] no one understood,
1754
01:29:06,639 --> 01:29:11,280
managing risks no one could measure and
1755
01:29:09,040 --> 01:29:14,320
stabilizing markets that were collapsing
1756
01:29:11,280 --> 01:29:16,719
in real time.
1757
01:29:14,320 --> 01:29:18,616
This wasn't a bailout. It was an
1758
01:29:16,719 --> 01:29:19,760
outsourcing of core sovereign functions.
1759
01:29:18,616 --> 01:29:21,600
[music]
1760
01:29:19,760 --> 01:29:23,600
For the first time, a private firm
1761
01:29:21,600 --> 01:29:26,560
played a central role in maintaining
1762
01:29:23,600 --> 01:29:27,920
global financial stability, not through
1763
01:29:26,560 --> 01:29:30,960
political authority, [music]
1764
01:29:27,920 --> 01:29:33,520
but through technical capability.
1765
01:29:30,960 --> 01:29:36,400
From that moment on, power was no longer
1766
01:29:33,520 --> 01:29:38,400
just about laws and institutions. It was
1767
01:29:36,400 --> 01:29:40,639
about who had the tools to see the
1768
01:29:38,400 --> 01:29:42,480
system clearly.
1769
01:29:40,639 --> 01:29:45,600
Black Rockck was hired to manage the
1770
01:29:42,480 --> 01:29:47,360
toxic waste of the crisis. They became
1771
01:29:45,600 --> 01:29:50,639
the official cleaner for the US
1772
01:29:47,360 --> 01:29:54,120
government, managing $130 billion of
1773
01:29:50,639 --> 01:29:54,120
troubled assets.
1774
01:29:54,159 --> 01:29:58,960
Suddenly, Larry Frink was the most
1775
01:29:56,639 --> 01:30:00,639
powerful man in the room, acting as an
1776
01:29:58,960 --> 01:30:02,159
adviser to the president and the
1777
01:30:00,639 --> 01:30:04,560
treasury.
1778
01:30:02,159 --> 01:30:07,360
But while he was saving the system, he
1779
01:30:04,560 --> 01:30:09,600
saw a once-ina-lifetime opportunity to
1780
01:30:07,360 --> 01:30:12,159
dominate it. In the middle of the
1781
01:30:09,600 --> 01:30:14,960
carnage, Barclay's bank in the UK was
1782
01:30:12,159 --> 01:30:17,199
desperate for cash. They needed to sell
1783
01:30:14,960 --> 01:30:18,960
their crown jewel, a division called
1784
01:30:17,199 --> 01:30:21,280
Barclay's Global Investors, [music]
1785
01:30:18,960 --> 01:30:23,360
which included a revolutionary product
1786
01:30:21,280 --> 01:30:26,082
called Eyesshares.
1787
01:30:23,360 --> 01:30:28,480
Eyesshares represented passive investing
1788
01:30:26,082 --> 01:30:31,199
[music] ETFs that track the whole market
1789
01:30:28,480 --> 01:30:33,040
rather than trying to beat it. It was
1790
01:30:31,199 --> 01:30:35,760
the ultimate expression of Larry's
1791
01:30:33,040 --> 01:30:38,400
philosophy. Stop betting on stars and
1792
01:30:35,760 --> 01:30:42,719
start owning the system. It was a
1793
01:30:38,400 --> 01:30:45,120
massive $13.5 billion gamble.
1794
01:30:42,719 --> 01:30:47,840
If the markets continue to fall, deal
1795
01:30:45,120 --> 01:30:50,080
could sink Black Rockck. But Larry knew
1796
01:30:47,840 --> 01:30:52,159
something the others didn't. He had
1797
01:30:50,080 --> 01:30:54,320
looked into the eye of Aladdin, and
1798
01:30:52,159 --> 01:30:57,199
Aladdin told him that the bottom was
1799
01:30:54,320 --> 01:31:00,159
near. With the acquisition of Eyesshares
1800
01:30:57,199 --> 01:31:02,800
in 2009, Black Rockck doubled its size
1801
01:31:00,159 --> 01:31:05,520
overnight. They weren't just a bond shop
1802
01:31:02,800 --> 01:31:08,480
anymore. They were now the largest money
1803
01:31:05,520 --> 01:31:11,120
manager on the planet. They had gone
1804
01:31:08,480 --> 01:31:13,280
into the crisis as a respected firm.
1805
01:31:11,120 --> 01:31:17,080
They came out of it as the shadow
1806
01:31:13,280 --> 01:31:17,080
government of finance.
1807
01:31:21,760 --> 01:31:25,600
By 2012, [music]
1808
01:31:22,960 --> 01:31:27,520
Larry Frink had built the machine. He
1809
01:31:25,600 --> 01:31:30,000
had the assets, the data, and the
1810
01:31:27,520 --> 01:31:33,280
influence. But he realized that being
1811
01:31:30,000 --> 01:31:34,639
king of Wall Street wasn't enough. He
1812
01:31:33,280 --> 01:31:37,760
wanted to [music] change the way the
1813
01:31:34,639 --> 01:31:39,679
world did business. Every January, a
1814
01:31:37,760 --> 01:31:41,600
ritual began that would send tremors
1815
01:31:39,679 --> 01:31:44,239
through boardrooms from Detroit to
1816
01:31:41,600 --> 01:31:46,400
Frankfurt. Larry started writing
1817
01:31:44,239 --> 01:31:48,800
letters. They weren't just annual
1818
01:31:46,400 --> 01:31:51,800
reports. They were the Black Rockck
1819
01:31:48,800 --> 01:31:51,800
Manifestos.
1820
01:31:52,400 --> 01:31:58,080
In 2018, he dropped a bomb. He told the
1821
01:31:56,159 --> 01:32:00,239
world's CEOs that if they [music] wanted
1822
01:31:58,080 --> 01:32:03,440
Black Rockck's money, they had to prove
1823
01:32:00,239 --> 01:32:05,840
they served a social purpose. He wasn't
1824
01:32:03,440 --> 01:32:10,400
just asking for profits. He was asking
1825
01:32:05,840 --> 01:32:11,440
for a soul. He was mainstreaming ESG,
1826
01:32:10,400 --> 01:32:14,159
environmental, [music]
1827
01:32:11,440 --> 01:32:17,840
social, and governance. And he was doing
1828
01:32:14,159 --> 01:32:19,840
it with a $10 trillion hammer. But
1829
01:32:17,840 --> 01:32:23,360
Larry's new gospel [music] didn't sit
1830
01:32:19,840 --> 01:32:25,360
well with everyone. By 2021, the Golden
1831
01:32:23,360 --> 01:32:28,560
Boy was finding himself in the middle of
1832
01:32:25,360 --> 01:32:31,840
a two-front war.
1833
01:32:28,560 --> 01:32:35,600
The ESG debate was never cultural. It
1834
01:32:31,840 --> 01:32:37,600
was economic. At its core, ESG was about
1835
01:32:35,600 --> 01:32:40,159
risk management, anticipating
1836
01:32:37,600 --> 01:32:42,400
regulation, climate disruption, and
1837
01:32:40,159 --> 01:32:44,560
social instability.
1838
01:32:42,400 --> 01:32:46,159
For Black Rockck, ignoring those factors
1839
01:32:44,560 --> 01:32:48,719
wasn't [music] neutral. It was
1840
01:32:46,159 --> 01:32:51,040
dangerous. But when capital begins to
1841
01:32:48,719 --> 01:32:53,840
price the future, it also begins to
1842
01:32:51,040 --> 01:32:55,520
shape it. That's why the backlash was so
1843
01:32:53,840 --> 01:32:58,400
intense.
1844
01:32:55,520 --> 01:33:00,000
To the left, Larry was a hypocrite. They
1845
01:32:58,400 --> 01:33:02,239
called him [music] a greenwasher because
1846
01:33:00,000 --> 01:33:05,040
Black Rockck still held billions in oil
1847
01:33:02,239 --> 01:33:07,120
and gas stocks. To the right, he was a
1848
01:33:05,040 --> 01:33:09,040
globalist villain who was using other
1849
01:33:07,120 --> 01:33:11,920
people's money to push a radical
1850
01:33:09,040 --> 01:33:13,920
environmental agenda. The backlash
1851
01:33:11,920 --> 01:33:16,920
turned into a full-scale political
1852
01:33:13,920 --> 01:33:16,920
assault.
1853
01:33:17,040 --> 01:33:21,760
State treasurers in Florida, Texas, and
1854
01:33:19,520 --> 01:33:24,400
Mississippi began pulling billions out
1855
01:33:21,760 --> 01:33:27,120
of Black Rockck. They accused Larry of
1856
01:33:24,400 --> 01:33:29,280
boycotting energy and violating his duty
1857
01:33:27,120 --> 01:33:31,120
to investors.
1858
01:33:29,280 --> 01:33:33,840
For the first time, the man who had
1859
01:33:31,120 --> 01:33:39,159
mastered risk found himself in a risk he
1860
01:33:33,840 --> 01:33:39,159
couldn't calculate, the culture war.
1861
01:33:40,639 --> 01:33:45,600
He told a crowd in Aspen that he was
1862
01:33:42,880 --> 01:33:47,760
ashamed to be a part of the debate. He
1863
01:33:45,600 --> 01:33:50,639
even stopped using the term ESG
1864
01:33:47,760 --> 01:33:52,560
altogether, calling it weaponized.
1865
01:33:50,639 --> 01:33:55,360
He had tried to become the conscience of
1866
01:33:52,560 --> 01:33:57,760
capitalism. Instead, it became its most
1867
01:33:55,360 --> 01:33:59,600
controversial target. But even [music]
1868
01:33:57,760 --> 01:34:02,239
as the politicians shouted and the
1869
01:33:59,600 --> 01:34:05,120
protesters marched, the assets kept
1870
01:34:02,239 --> 01:34:06,880
growing. [music]
1871
01:34:05,120 --> 01:34:08,880
Because in the end, whether you loved
1872
01:34:06,880 --> 01:34:12,114
him or hated him, you couldn't escape
1873
01:34:08,880 --> 01:34:12,114
the machine he built. [music]
1874
01:34:20,800 --> 01:34:25,440
January 2026, [music]
1875
01:34:23,120 --> 01:34:27,120
the number flashes on a terminal in
1876
01:34:25,440 --> 01:34:31,120
Black Rockck's Hudson Yards
1877
01:34:27,120 --> 01:34:34,239
headquarters. $14 [music] trillion.
1878
01:34:31,120 --> 01:34:35,840
It is a number so vast it defies human
1879
01:34:34,239 --> 01:34:37,600
comprehension.
1880
01:34:35,840 --> 01:34:40,320
If Larry Frink's assets [music] under
1881
01:34:37,600 --> 01:34:42,320
management were a country's GDP, it
1882
01:34:40,320 --> 01:34:44,239
would be the third largest economy on
1883
01:34:42,320 --> 01:34:46,880
Earth, surpassed only [music] by the
1884
01:34:44,239 --> 01:34:49,120
United States and China.
1885
01:34:46,880 --> 01:34:52,000
But as Larry looks out from his office,
1886
01:34:49,120 --> 01:34:53,840
he isn't looking at stock tickers. He is
1887
01:34:52,000 --> 01:34:56,840
looking at the very bones of
1888
01:34:53,840 --> 01:34:56,840
civilization.
1889
01:34:58,400 --> 01:35:04,800
In 2024, Larry made his final most
1890
01:35:01,840 --> 01:35:06,560
aggressive pivot. He realized that the
1891
01:35:04,800 --> 01:35:09,120
next decade won't be one with [music]
1892
01:35:06,560 --> 01:35:12,159
bits on a screen, but with atoms in the
1893
01:35:09,120 --> 01:35:12,960
ground. With the 12.5 billion
1894
01:35:12,159 --> 01:35:15,760
acquisition [music]
1895
01:35:12,960 --> 01:35:18,000
of global infrastructure partners, Larry
1896
01:35:15,760 --> 01:35:20,880
signaled the end of the old Wall Street
1897
01:35:18,000 --> 01:35:22,880
era. Larry saw the AI revolution [music]
1898
01:35:20,880 --> 01:35:25,600
coming. But he didn't buy the chip
1899
01:35:22,880 --> 01:35:29,080
makers. He bought the power plants that
1900
01:35:25,600 --> 01:35:29,080
feed the chips.
1901
01:35:32,000 --> 01:35:39,000
But every empire [music] faces the same
1902
01:35:34,080 --> 01:35:39,000
inevitable question. Succession.
1903
01:35:40,400 --> 01:35:44,416
For years, Wall Street has whispered
1904
01:35:42,480 --> 01:35:47,360
about who could possibly replace the
1905
01:35:44,416 --> 01:35:49,920
[music] man who is Black Rockck. Names
1906
01:35:47,360 --> 01:35:52,480
like Rob Capito, Mark Weirman, and
1907
01:35:49,920 --> 01:35:55,551
Jennifer Johnson swirl in the press. But
1908
01:35:52,480 --> 01:35:57,199
the truth is more complex. Larry hasn't
1909
01:35:55,551 --> 01:36:00,239
[music] just built a company. He's built
1910
01:35:57,199 --> 01:36:03,360
an organism. A system where Aladdin, now
1911
01:36:00,239 --> 01:36:05,199
a very sophisticated AI entity, handles
1912
01:36:03,360 --> 01:36:08,560
the risk while a legion [music] of
1913
01:36:05,199 --> 01:36:11,440
20,000 employees, executes the vision.
1914
01:36:08,560 --> 01:36:13,280
Aladdin is no longer just a calculator.
1915
01:36:11,440 --> 01:36:15,040
It is a predictive engine that runs
1916
01:36:13,280 --> 01:36:17,440
millions of [music] simulations every
1917
01:36:15,040 --> 01:36:19,679
second, anticipating everything from a
1918
01:36:17,440 --> 01:36:22,320
war in the Middle East to a crop failure
1919
01:36:19,679 --> 01:36:24,719
in Brazil.
1920
01:36:22,320 --> 01:36:27,920
Some call him the king of the world,
1921
01:36:24,719 --> 01:36:29,760
others call him the shadow architect.
1922
01:36:27,920 --> 01:36:31,920
But if [music] you ask Larry, he'll tell
1923
01:36:29,760 --> 01:36:34,320
you he's still that kid from the Van
1924
01:36:31,920 --> 01:36:38,600
Noise shoe store, just trying to make
1925
01:36:34,320 --> 01:36:38,600
sure that the maths add up.
1926
01:36:38,880 --> 01:36:43,199
He took the greatest humiliation of his
1927
01:36:40,960 --> 01:36:45,280
life and turned it into a shield for the
1928
01:36:43,199 --> 01:36:47,280
global economy.
1929
01:36:45,280 --> 01:36:50,000
He taught the world that profit without
1930
01:36:47,280 --> 01:36:52,239
a plan is just a gamble and that in the
1931
01:36:50,000 --> 01:36:55,040
dark, the man with the flashlight is
1932
01:36:52,239 --> 01:36:57,119
king.
1933
01:36:55,040 --> 01:36:59,360
There is one financial question the
1934
01:36:57,119 --> 01:37:01,679
system [music] cannot answer. What
1935
01:36:59,360 --> 01:37:04,480
happens when everyone measures risk the
1936
01:37:01,679 --> 01:37:06,159
same way? When models converge. When
1937
01:37:04,480 --> 01:37:09,199
assumptions [music] align. When
1938
01:37:06,159 --> 01:37:11,520
diversity of judgment disappears.
1939
01:37:09,199 --> 01:37:13,760
A system optimized for stability can
1940
01:37:11,520 --> 01:37:16,000
become fragile. Not because [music] it
1941
01:37:13,760 --> 01:37:18,000
is wrong but because it leaves no room
1942
01:37:16,000 --> 01:37:20,239
for the unexpected.
1943
01:37:18,000 --> 01:37:21,840
When the supervisor becomes invisible
1944
01:37:20,239 --> 01:37:24,480
and the rules are embedded [music] in
1945
01:37:21,840 --> 01:37:27,920
code, accountability becomes harder to
1946
01:37:24,480 --> 01:37:29,872
locate, the system works until it
1947
01:37:27,920 --> 01:37:32,080
doesn't. And that's why Blackprop
1948
01:37:29,872 --> 01:37:34,800
[music] isn't just a shareholder in your
1949
01:37:32,080 --> 01:37:37,840
company. They are the landlord of your
1950
01:37:34,800 --> 01:37:40,639
power plant, the owner of your airport,
1951
01:37:37,840 --> 01:37:42,800
the architect of your retirement. It is
1952
01:37:40,639 --> 01:37:44,320
a level of centralized influence the
1953
01:37:42,800 --> 01:37:47,600
world [music] has never seen in a
1954
01:37:44,320 --> 01:37:49,520
private individual. Lawrence D.Fin
1955
01:37:47,600 --> 01:37:53,119
didn't just build [music] a bank. He
1956
01:37:49,520 --> 01:37:55,360
built the unblinking eye of capitalism.
1957
01:37:53,119 --> 01:37:57,600
And as the world moves into the era of
1958
01:37:55,360 --> 01:38:00,400
AI, climate shift, and global
1959
01:37:57,600 --> 01:38:03,760
restructuring, one thing is certain.
1960
01:38:00,400 --> 01:38:08,360
Black Rockck will be there, watching,
1961
01:38:03,760 --> 01:38:08,360
calculating, and growing.
1962
01:39:28,320 --> 01:39:33,280
It's just a small plastic brick.
1963
01:39:31,760 --> 01:39:38,400
Lightweight,
1964
01:39:33,280 --> 01:39:42,719
simple, unchanged since 1958.
1965
01:39:38,400 --> 01:39:44,480
And yet, it has built entire universes.
1966
01:39:42,719 --> 01:39:47,280
Lego constructions [music] truly take us
1967
01:39:44,480 --> 01:39:48,800
back to childhood.
1968
01:39:47,280 --> 01:39:51,600
But they stay with us throughout [music]
1969
01:39:48,800 --> 01:39:54,000
our entire lives. From bedrooms to
1970
01:39:51,600 --> 01:39:58,239
boardrooms, from playgrounds to [music]
1971
01:39:54,000 --> 01:40:00,719
Hollywood, Lego has shaped generations.
1972
01:39:58,239 --> 01:40:02,560
>> When I design something from scratch, I
1973
01:40:00,719 --> 01:40:04,880
start with an idea that occurs to me at
1974
01:40:02,560 --> 01:40:06,719
any time of day.
1975
01:40:04,880 --> 01:40:09,679
I try to build it with Lego and see what
1976
01:40:06,719 --> 01:40:13,760
I come up with. In a global toy market
1977
01:40:09,679 --> 01:40:16,480
worth more than $120 billion, LEGO
1978
01:40:13,760 --> 01:40:19,520
stands alone. A single company
1979
01:40:16,480 --> 01:40:21,840
controlling nearly one in every $10
1980
01:40:19,520 --> 01:40:24,000
spent on toys worldwide.
1981
01:40:21,840 --> 01:40:25,600
>> Lego holds a leading position worldwide,
1982
01:40:24,000 --> 01:40:27,280
recognized above all for its
1983
01:40:25,600 --> 01:40:29,440
playability.
1984
01:40:27,280 --> 01:40:33,274
>> What if the most beloved toy in the
1985
01:40:29,440 --> 01:40:33,520
world almost didn't exist?
1986
01:40:33,274 --> 01:40:35,920
>> [music]
1987
01:40:33,520 --> 01:40:38,639
>> Discover the incredible journey of a
1988
01:40:35,920 --> 01:40:40,479
small, struggling carpentry shop. The
1989
01:40:38,639 --> 01:40:42,480
dared to dream bigger than anyone
1990
01:40:40,479 --> 01:40:45,040
[music] thought possible.
1991
01:40:42,480 --> 01:40:48,080
>> This is the untold story of the
1992
01:40:45,040 --> 01:40:50,304
visionary who built Lego.
1993
01:40:48,080 --> 01:40:52,560
Transforming simple wooden bricks
1994
01:40:50,304 --> 01:40:57,280
[music] into a multibillion dollar
1995
01:40:52,560 --> 01:40:59,520
empire and forever changing how we play.
1996
01:40:57,280 --> 01:41:02,719
But none of this began with billiondoll
1997
01:40:59,520 --> 01:41:06,639
charts or cinematic universes.
1998
01:41:02,719 --> 01:41:09,920
It began with a carpenter with a vision.
1999
01:41:06,639 --> 01:41:13,040
In a tiny Danish village, one man had a
2000
01:41:09,920 --> 01:41:16,040
dream. Building toys out of scraps of
2001
01:41:13,040 --> 01:41:16,040
wood.
2002
01:41:22,239 --> 01:41:28,719
Ole Kirk Christensen was born in 1891 in
2003
01:41:26,080 --> 01:41:33,040
western [music] Denmark, a place defined
2004
01:41:28,719 --> 01:41:35,760
by silence, soil, and hard work.
2005
01:41:33,040 --> 01:41:37,920
He grew up poor, like most children in
2006
01:41:35,760 --> 01:41:39,280
the Jutland countryside.
2007
01:41:37,920 --> 01:41:42,000
But he learned the value of
2008
01:41:39,280 --> 01:41:45,520
craftsmanship early. When you made
2009
01:41:42,000 --> 01:41:48,159
something, it had to last.
2010
01:41:45,520 --> 01:41:50,400
He apprenticed as a carpenter. It was
2011
01:41:48,159 --> 01:41:54,000
not a really glamorous work, but
2012
01:41:50,400 --> 01:41:57,360
meticulous, honest, a craft that matched
2013
01:41:54,000 --> 01:41:59,760
Ola's character and manners.
2014
01:41:57,360 --> 01:42:03,199
Ola traveled through Denmark, Germany,
2015
01:41:59,760 --> 01:42:06,719
and Norway. Everywhere he went, he left
2016
01:42:03,199 --> 01:42:08,719
a reputation. Precise, patient,
2017
01:42:06,719 --> 01:42:10,400
relentless.
2018
01:42:08,719 --> 01:42:12,719
In 1916, [music]
2019
01:42:10,400 --> 01:42:14,719
Ole returned home and bought a workshop
2020
01:42:12,719 --> 01:42:18,739
in a place that barely existed on the
2021
01:42:14,719 --> 01:42:19,760
map. Bund. No shops, no train station,
2022
01:42:18,739 --> 01:42:21,679
[music]
2023
01:42:19,760 --> 01:42:23,280
just a handful of families trying to
2024
01:42:21,679 --> 01:42:25,040
survive the Danish winds.
2025
01:42:23,280 --> 01:42:28,159
>> Don't worry, I'm fine. I'm fine.
2026
01:42:25,040 --> 01:42:30,320
>> But 8 years later, disaster struck.
2027
01:42:28,159 --> 01:42:33,360
>> Oh. Oh. Oh no.
2028
01:42:30,320 --> 01:42:34,080
>> In 1924, a fire tore through his
2029
01:42:33,360 --> 01:42:36,880
workshop.
2030
01:42:34,080 --> 01:42:38,560
>> Oh god, no. Please, no. Oh my god.
2031
01:42:36,880 --> 01:42:42,800
>> Everything burned.
2032
01:42:38,560 --> 01:42:44,159
tools, wood, orders, and a lifetime of
2033
01:42:42,800 --> 01:42:46,159
savings, [music]
2034
01:42:44,159 --> 01:42:50,239
all gone.
2035
01:42:46,159 --> 01:42:52,960
But Olair didn't quit. He rebuilt and
2036
01:42:50,239 --> 01:42:55,440
rebuilt bigger than before. Not because
2037
01:42:52,960 --> 01:42:59,360
it was safe, but because he refused to
2038
01:42:55,440 --> 01:43:01,840
let Billand disappear into the wind.
2039
01:42:59,360 --> 01:43:04,320
Then came the [music] Great Depression.
2040
01:43:01,840 --> 01:43:06,960
Houses weren't being built. Doors
2041
01:43:04,320 --> 01:43:08,800
weren't being ordered. Bills weren't
2042
01:43:06,960 --> 01:43:11,520
being paid.
2043
01:43:08,800 --> 01:43:14,480
Olair had workers depending on him,
2044
01:43:11,520 --> 01:43:17,440
families depending on him. So, he did
2045
01:43:14,480 --> 01:43:21,199
something unexpected. He began crafting
2046
01:43:17,440 --> 01:43:24,880
small wooden toys. They were simple,
2047
01:43:21,199 --> 01:43:27,440
durable, and beautiful.
2048
01:43:24,880 --> 01:43:30,000
Locals mocked [music] him. A grown man
2049
01:43:27,440 --> 01:43:31,600
making toys for children. You'll never
2050
01:43:30,000 --> 01:43:34,880
survive.
2051
01:43:31,600 --> 01:43:36,880
But Ola believed that play and fun was a
2052
01:43:34,880 --> 01:43:40,080
serious business.
2053
01:43:36,880 --> 01:43:43,679
In 1934, he held a contest to name the
2054
01:43:40,080 --> 01:43:47,360
new toy company. He chose a short word,
2055
01:43:43,679 --> 01:43:51,119
Lego. It was not only a simple idea, but
2056
01:43:47,360 --> 01:43:53,840
a philosophy and a promise.
2057
01:43:51,119 --> 01:43:56,480
He hung a sign in the workshop. Only the
2058
01:43:53,840 --> 01:44:01,639
best is [music] good enough. It wasn't
2059
01:43:56,480 --> 01:44:01,639
marketing. It was his identity.
2060
01:44:02,221 --> 01:44:04,960
>> [panting]
2061
01:44:03,440 --> 01:44:09,600
>> Oh god, not again.
2062
01:44:04,960 --> 01:44:11,119
>> In 1942, Ola faced another fire. This
2063
01:44:09,600 --> 01:44:14,800
time it was bigger, [music] more
2064
01:44:11,119 --> 01:44:18,880
devastating. Every blueprint, every toy,
2065
01:44:14,800 --> 01:44:21,760
every dream he had turned into smoke.
2066
01:44:18,880 --> 01:44:25,280
But he had built himself the hardship.
2067
01:44:21,760 --> 01:44:27,112
And once more, he rebuilt the factory
2068
01:44:25,280 --> 01:44:28,400
stronger than the two previous ones.
2069
01:44:27,112 --> 01:44:32,400
[music]
2070
01:44:28,400 --> 01:44:34,480
In 1947, at the worst economic moment,
2071
01:44:32,400 --> 01:44:37,440
Ola made the riskiest choice of his
2072
01:44:34,480 --> 01:44:39,600
life. He spent more than twice the
2073
01:44:37,440 --> 01:44:42,480
company's annual profits on a strange
2074
01:44:39,600 --> 01:44:45,440
new machine, one that worked not with
2075
01:44:42,480 --> 01:44:48,159
wood, but with plastic.
2076
01:44:45,440 --> 01:44:50,480
Retailers hated plastic. Parents
2077
01:44:48,159 --> 01:44:54,320
distrusted it. But Ola saw something
2078
01:44:50,480 --> 01:44:56,719
they didn't. Precision, repeatability,
2079
01:44:54,320 --> 01:44:58,960
and possibilities. Endless
2080
01:44:56,719 --> 01:45:02,320
possibilities.
2081
01:44:58,960 --> 01:45:04,480
Only two years later, in 1949,
2082
01:45:02,320 --> 01:45:07,760
LEGO released the first plastic bricks
2083
01:45:04,480 --> 01:45:10,560
of its history. They didn't click. They
2084
01:45:07,760 --> 01:45:13,560
weren't perfect, but they were the
2085
01:45:10,560 --> 01:45:13,560
beginning.
2086
01:45:17,840 --> 01:45:22,560
>> The idea was good, but Ola and his team
2087
01:45:20,480 --> 01:45:24,560
face setbacks while designing the bricks
2088
01:45:22,560 --> 01:45:27,760
that had cemented Lego's identity
2089
01:45:24,560 --> 01:45:30,880
through the years. The plastic bricks
2090
01:45:27,760 --> 01:45:32,960
didn't grip. This was a major problem
2091
01:45:30,880 --> 01:45:35,679
for a building set because buildings
2092
01:45:32,960 --> 01:45:39,119
collapsed. Towers fell in front of their
2093
01:45:35,679 --> 01:45:43,600
eyes. Apparently, Lego wasn't created to
2094
01:45:39,119 --> 01:45:45,840
build. And then in 1958,
2095
01:45:43,600 --> 01:45:48,159
everything changed.
2096
01:45:45,840 --> 01:45:50,159
>> Unlike 20 years ago, LEGO today allows
2097
01:45:48,159 --> 01:45:52,480
us to build many more things because
2098
01:45:50,159 --> 01:45:55,800
they have released more realistic colors
2099
01:45:52,480 --> 01:45:55,800
and shapes.
2100
01:45:56,239 --> 01:46:00,960
In the past, the pieces were mostly
2101
01:45:58,239 --> 01:46:02,960
square. Today, there is a much wider
2102
01:46:00,960 --> 01:46:05,199
variety of shapes, including more
2103
01:46:02,960 --> 01:46:08,000
rounded elements, which allow us to
2104
01:46:05,199 --> 01:46:09,679
create more ergonomic forms, ones that
2105
01:46:08,000 --> 01:46:12,000
more closely resemble the kinds of
2106
01:46:09,679 --> 01:46:14,159
buildings and structures we see in
2107
01:46:12,000 --> 01:46:17,199
everyday life.
2108
01:46:14,159 --> 01:46:20,400
>> Engineers at LEGO perfected a simple but
2109
01:46:17,199 --> 01:46:22,480
ingenious solution. hollow tubes inside
2110
01:46:20,400 --> 01:46:24,719
the brick.
2111
01:46:22,480 --> 01:46:27,280
Paired with the studs on top, the
2112
01:46:24,719 --> 01:46:31,119
geometry created what LEGO calls clutch
2113
01:46:27,280 --> 01:46:33,360
power. Not too tight, not too loose,
2114
01:46:31,119 --> 01:46:35,280
just [music] perfect.
2115
01:46:33,360 --> 01:46:37,920
This was not just an adjustment or
2116
01:46:35,280 --> 01:46:40,719
improvement. It was the birth of what we
2117
01:46:37,920 --> 01:46:43,520
know [music] today as a Lego brick. The
2118
01:46:40,719 --> 01:46:45,679
brick that today can still be used with
2119
01:46:43,520 --> 01:46:47,760
the modern ones.
2120
01:46:45,679 --> 01:46:49,520
the brick that was the foundation of a
2121
01:46:47,760 --> 01:46:51,280
company [music] that still makes history
2122
01:46:49,520 --> 01:46:54,719
today.
2123
01:46:51,280 --> 01:46:56,453
That same year, Lego filed the patent.
2124
01:46:54,719 --> 01:46:58,239
They had something worth protecting,
2125
01:46:56,453 --> 01:47:02,159
[music] and OA knew that sooner or
2126
01:46:58,239 --> 01:47:05,840
later, it would be replicated.
2127
01:47:02,159 --> 01:47:09,600
It was January the 28th, 1958 when the
2128
01:47:05,840 --> 01:47:12,239
patent was filed. Later that year, Ole
2129
01:47:09,600 --> 01:47:15,440
Christensen [music] passed away.
2130
01:47:12,239 --> 01:47:19,239
and savvy. He never lived to see how far
2131
01:47:15,440 --> 01:47:19,239
his brick would travel.
2132
01:47:26,800 --> 01:47:32,320
After his father died, Godfred Kerr
2133
01:47:29,360 --> 01:47:34,560
Christensen stepped in. He wasn't
2134
01:47:32,320 --> 01:47:37,520
inheriting the company. He was
2135
01:47:34,560 --> 01:47:39,760
inheriting a philosophy, one he had been
2136
01:47:37,520 --> 01:47:41,840
raised with. [music] His father wasn't
2137
01:47:39,760 --> 01:47:44,080
around anymore, but the original spirit
2138
01:47:41,840 --> 01:47:46,719
of Lego lived on in the second
2139
01:47:44,080 --> 01:47:49,119
Christensen [music] generation.
2140
01:47:46,719 --> 01:47:51,280
But he also had something to add.
2141
01:47:49,119 --> 01:47:54,639
Godfred believed Lego should be more
2142
01:47:51,280 --> 01:47:56,159
than toys. It should be a system. A
2143
01:47:54,639 --> 01:47:58,880
system [music] where every piece
2144
01:47:56,159 --> 01:48:00,800
connected with every other piece across
2145
01:47:58,880 --> 01:48:02,880
every set.
2146
01:48:00,800 --> 01:48:06,000
This created a language of creativity
2147
01:48:02,880 --> 01:48:09,199
and possibilities. And a single idea
2148
01:48:06,000 --> 01:48:11,840
changed everything. Suddenly, LEGO
2149
01:48:09,199 --> 01:48:14,320
wasn't a collection of toys, but an
2150
01:48:11,840 --> 01:48:16,800
entire universe.
2151
01:48:14,320 --> 01:48:18,800
The company began to grow far beyond its
2152
01:48:16,800 --> 01:48:22,000
original frontiers.
2153
01:48:18,800 --> 01:48:25,600
During the 1960s and [music] '7s, Lego
2154
01:48:22,000 --> 01:48:29,520
expanded across Europe, Germany, Sweden,
2155
01:48:25,600 --> 01:48:32,960
the UK. Band, once a small village,
2156
01:48:29,520 --> 01:48:35,600
became a global hub of play. Lego then
2157
01:48:32,960 --> 01:48:37,920
built its own airport, factories, and
2158
01:48:35,600 --> 01:48:40,400
distribution centers. In the world of
2159
01:48:37,920 --> 01:48:43,840
construction toys, we know that Lego
2160
01:48:40,400 --> 01:48:48,400
isn't the only brand around.
2161
01:48:43,840 --> 01:48:51,040
What Lego provides is a quality product.
2162
01:48:48,400 --> 01:48:53,840
Maybe one part is wrong for every 10,000
2163
01:48:51,040 --> 01:48:56,639
or 100,000 items. And if you are missing
2164
01:48:53,840 --> 01:48:58,800
an item from a box, or if it is faulty,
2165
01:48:56,639 --> 01:49:00,239
the company's after sales service will
2166
01:48:58,800 --> 01:49:03,639
not question the fact that you are
2167
01:49:00,239 --> 01:49:03,639
missing a part.
2168
01:49:04,400 --> 01:49:10,719
And then the magic happened.
2169
01:49:08,080 --> 01:49:14,960
Lego introduced something no toy company
2170
01:49:10,719 --> 01:49:18,800
had done at scale. Fully themed worlds.
2171
01:49:14,960 --> 01:49:20,080
Space town castles.
2172
01:49:18,800 --> 01:49:22,560
Children weren't just building
2173
01:49:20,080 --> 01:49:24,400
structures anymore. They were building
2174
01:49:22,560 --> 01:49:28,000
stories.
2175
01:49:24,400 --> 01:49:29,920
In 1978, LEGO released its most iconic
2176
01:49:28,000 --> 01:49:31,440
invention [music] since the brick, the
2177
01:49:29,920 --> 01:49:34,480
minifigure.
2178
01:49:31,440 --> 01:49:38,320
It had a simple face, hands shaped like
2179
01:49:34,480 --> 01:49:40,861
a sea, and feet made to stand on studs.
2180
01:49:38,320 --> 01:49:42,560
A tiny character that let kids project
2181
01:49:40,861 --> 01:49:46,080
[music] themselves into entire
2182
01:49:42,560 --> 01:49:48,560
universes. Stories now had heroes and
2183
01:49:46,080 --> 01:49:50,560
Lego had a heartbeat.
2184
01:49:48,560 --> 01:49:52,480
In the late 1970s, [music]
2185
01:49:50,560 --> 01:49:55,271
Lego was already run by the third
2186
01:49:52,480 --> 01:49:58,320
Christensen generation. Ole's grandson
2187
01:49:55,271 --> 01:50:00,400
[music] killed began shaping the company
2188
01:49:58,320 --> 01:50:01,920
into the global powerhouse we know
2189
01:50:00,400 --> 01:50:04,320
today.
2190
01:50:01,920 --> 01:50:07,600
He did so by creating more sophisticated
2191
01:50:04,320 --> 01:50:10,000
lines, bringing in new universes,
2192
01:50:07,600 --> 01:50:12,239
technic brought mechanics, pirates
2193
01:50:10,000 --> 01:50:15,840
brought adventure, and trains brought
2194
01:50:12,239 --> 01:50:17,679
motion. By the late 20th century, the
2195
01:50:15,840 --> 01:50:20,800
global toy market was becoming [music]
2196
01:50:17,679 --> 01:50:22,320
massive. Tens of billions of dollars a
2197
01:50:20,800 --> 01:50:24,320
year worth.
2198
01:50:22,320 --> 01:50:27,119
The United States [music] spent more on
2199
01:50:24,320 --> 01:50:30,080
toys than any country on Earth. And
2200
01:50:27,119 --> 01:50:32,480
China produced most of them, nearly 3/4
2201
01:50:30,080 --> 01:50:35,440
of the world's total.
2202
01:50:32,480 --> 01:50:38,320
In this booming landscape, Lego wasn't
2203
01:50:35,440 --> 01:50:41,320
just another toy. It was [music] the
2204
01:50:38,320 --> 01:50:41,320
toy.
2205
01:50:45,920 --> 01:50:51,760
By the late 1990s, Lego was flying high.
2206
01:50:49,760 --> 01:50:54,000
It had become one of the most admired
2207
01:50:51,760 --> 01:50:56,080
companies in Europe. A creative
2208
01:50:54,000 --> 01:50:58,560
powerhouse built on the philosophy of
2209
01:50:56,080 --> 01:51:00,639
imagination and creation. We're not
2210
01:50:58,560 --> 01:51:02,320
focused only on childhood, but on
2211
01:51:00,639 --> 01:51:04,639
something that has quite literally built
2212
01:51:02,320 --> 01:51:06,800
us, pun intended, shaping our
2213
01:51:04,639 --> 01:51:09,040
personalities through Lego from an early
2214
01:51:06,800 --> 01:51:11,040
age. [music] Those memories became a
2215
01:51:09,040 --> 01:51:13,217
foundation we've kept building on over
2216
01:51:11,040 --> 01:51:13,840
time.
2217
01:51:13,217 --> 01:51:15,760
[music]
2218
01:51:13,840 --> 01:51:17,679
That's why exhibitions like this bring
2219
01:51:15,760 --> 01:51:20,560
us straight back to childhood. The
2220
01:51:17,679 --> 01:51:22,719
audience here is very diverse, but once
2221
01:51:20,560 --> 01:51:24,960
people walk in, they all become the boy
2222
01:51:22,719 --> 01:51:27,920
or girl they once were.
2223
01:51:24,960 --> 01:51:30,159
>> But it's not all gold that glitters.
2224
01:51:27,920 --> 01:51:33,119
Under the surface, something dangerous
2225
01:51:30,159 --> 01:51:35,440
was creeping in. The toy market was
2226
01:51:33,119 --> 01:51:36,800
changing fast. Children were spending
2227
01:51:35,440 --> 01:51:39,760
more [music] and more time with video
2228
01:51:36,800 --> 01:51:42,000
games and early computer entertainment.
2229
01:51:39,760 --> 01:51:43,760
Sony's PlayStation, Nintendo, and
2230
01:51:42,000 --> 01:51:46,560
Hasbro's electronic toys [music] were
2231
01:51:43,760 --> 01:51:49,199
capturing attention. And LEGO,
2232
01:51:46,560 --> 01:51:51,920
determined not to fall behind, expanded
2233
01:51:49,199 --> 01:51:54,400
too far, too fast.
2234
01:51:51,920 --> 01:51:56,639
Throughout the 1990s, LEGO began
2235
01:51:54,400 --> 01:51:58,960
introducing thousands of completely new
2236
01:51:56,639 --> 01:52:01,920
pieces. Specialized parts [music] that
2237
01:51:58,960 --> 01:52:04,560
not only worked in one set, a single
2238
01:52:01,920 --> 01:52:07,760
year could bring more than 350 new
2239
01:52:04,560 --> 01:52:10,000
designs. Each of them costing tens of
2240
01:52:07,760 --> 01:52:13,040
thousands of dollars in steel machining
2241
01:52:10,000 --> 01:52:14,880
and precision engineering.
2242
01:52:13,040 --> 01:52:17,199
In 2002,
2243
01:52:14,880 --> 01:52:20,159
Lego had more than 12,000 active
2244
01:52:17,199 --> 01:52:22,560
elements. The system of play, once
2245
01:52:20,159 --> 01:52:25,920
simple and universal, was becoming
2246
01:52:22,560 --> 01:52:27,760
chaotic and difficult to follow. LEGO
2247
01:52:25,920 --> 01:52:31,040
also tried [music] becoming a lifestyle
2248
01:52:27,760 --> 01:52:34,239
brand. New ventures appeared everywhere.
2249
01:52:31,040 --> 01:52:36,400
Clothing lines, theme parks, homegoods,
2250
01:52:34,239 --> 01:52:38,080
cartoon series, even watches and
2251
01:52:36,400 --> 01:52:40,080
sneakers.
2252
01:52:38,080 --> 01:52:42,639
But these projects drained resources
2253
01:52:40,080 --> 01:52:46,239
without reinforcing the core product.
2254
01:52:42,639 --> 01:52:48,159
the brick. And between 1999 [music]
2255
01:52:46,239 --> 01:52:50,560
and 2003,
2256
01:52:48,159 --> 01:52:52,719
LEGO sales collapsed.
2257
01:52:50,560 --> 01:52:54,320
During these years, the company went
2258
01:52:52,719 --> 01:52:58,080
from doubledigit growth to [music]
2259
01:52:54,320 --> 01:52:59,983
struggling. And by 2003, the company was
2260
01:52:58,080 --> 01:53:03,520
losing the equivalent of $1 million
2261
01:52:59,983 --> 01:53:05,878
[music] a day. In a global toy market
2262
01:53:03,520 --> 01:53:06,400
still worth more than $70 billion US
2263
01:53:05,878 --> 01:53:09,280
[music]
2264
01:53:06,400 --> 01:53:11,360
at the time, Lego, once the king of the
2265
01:53:09,280 --> 01:53:13,520
toy box, was only a few steps [music]
2266
01:53:11,360 --> 01:53:16,639
away from bankruptcy.
2267
01:53:13,520 --> 01:53:20,880
Times were dark, but a spark of genius
2268
01:53:16,639 --> 01:53:23,199
appeared. In 1999, LEGO signed its first
2269
01:53:20,880 --> 01:53:25,040
ever licensing deal with no other than
2270
01:53:23,199 --> 01:53:28,159
Lucasfilm.
2271
01:53:25,040 --> 01:53:31,360
The timing was perfect. Star Wars
2272
01:53:28,159 --> 01:53:34,159
Episode 1 was about to hit theaters.
2273
01:53:31,360 --> 01:53:37,199
Hype was global and the first Lego Star
2274
01:53:34,159 --> 01:53:40,400
Wars sets were instant hits. Not just
2275
01:53:37,199 --> 01:53:42,480
with children, with adults. Collectors
2276
01:53:40,400 --> 01:53:44,560
lined up to buy the X-wing, the
2277
01:53:42,480 --> 01:53:47,920
Snowspeeder, or the first Millennium
2278
01:53:44,560 --> 01:53:50,719
Falcon. For the first time in LEGO's
2279
01:53:47,920 --> 01:53:53,520
history, adults, including those in
2280
01:53:50,719 --> 01:53:54,400
their 30s and 40s, were buying sets for
2281
01:53:53,520 --> 01:53:56,320
themselves.
2282
01:53:54,400 --> 01:53:59,119
>> The adult fan of Lego community is
2283
01:53:56,320 --> 01:54:01,199
getting bigger. This is because Lego is
2284
01:53:59,119 --> 01:54:03,679
not the same as it was 20 or 30 years
2285
01:54:01,199 --> 01:54:06,000
ago.
2286
01:54:03,679 --> 01:54:07,840
Before, Lego was only seen as a toy to
2287
01:54:06,000 --> 01:54:10,840
play with when it was cold and you were
2288
01:54:07,840 --> 01:54:10,840
indoors.
2289
01:54:11,199 --> 01:54:16,000
Today, Lego is much more than a toy.
2290
01:54:13,599 --> 01:54:18,320
It's used to create logos to design
2291
01:54:16,000 --> 01:54:21,360
dynamic group activities. And it also
2292
01:54:18,320 --> 01:54:23,599
represents a shift in how we see it.
2293
01:54:21,360 --> 01:54:26,000
years ago, if you said you played with
2294
01:54:23,599 --> 01:54:28,400
Lego or built Lego, you almost had to
2295
01:54:26,000 --> 01:54:30,159
explain yourself that you were at home
2296
01:54:28,400 --> 01:54:32,960
playing with little figures making up
2297
01:54:30,159 --> 01:54:34,880
battles. What we do today is different.
2298
01:54:32,960 --> 01:54:38,560
We come together as a community of
2299
01:54:34,880 --> 01:54:40,400
adults and Lego has recognized that.
2300
01:54:38,560 --> 01:54:42,719
That's why more and more products are
2301
01:54:40,400 --> 01:54:45,440
now designed specifically for adults,
2302
01:54:42,719 --> 01:54:48,440
more complex to build, and also more
2303
01:54:45,440 --> 01:54:48,440
expensive.
2304
01:54:49,520 --> 01:54:53,840
This kid [music] demographic would later
2305
01:54:51,920 --> 01:54:57,440
become one of LEGO's most profitable
2306
01:54:53,840 --> 01:54:59,920
segments. More licenses followed Harry
2307
01:54:57,440 --> 01:55:02,320
Potter, [music] Spider-Man, Batman,
2308
01:54:59,920 --> 01:55:05,040
Indiana Jones, and later the newest
2309
01:55:02,320 --> 01:55:06,639
Marvel Cinematic Universe.
2310
01:55:05,040 --> 01:55:10,080
Even though LEGO learned that [music]
2311
01:55:06,639 --> 01:55:13,360
storytelling sells, in 2004, losses were
2312
01:55:10,080 --> 01:55:15,360
mounting and survival was uncertain.
2313
01:55:13,360 --> 01:55:17,360
And then the company made [music] a
2314
01:55:15,360 --> 01:55:19,679
radical decision.
2315
01:55:17,360 --> 01:55:21,440
For the first time in its history, the
2316
01:55:19,679 --> 01:55:24,320
company appointed [music] a CEO from
2317
01:55:21,440 --> 01:55:25,840
outside the Christensen family, Jurgen
2318
01:55:24,320 --> 01:55:28,239
Victor,
2319
01:55:25,840 --> 01:55:32,080
a 35-year-old [music] former McKenzie
2320
01:55:28,239 --> 01:55:33,599
consultant. He was calm, precise,
2321
01:55:32,080 --> 01:55:37,280
analytical,
2322
01:55:33,599 --> 01:55:40,639
and brutally honest. His diagnosis was
2323
01:55:37,280 --> 01:55:42,880
simple. Lego had forgotten what [music]
2324
01:55:40,639 --> 01:55:45,119
made it Lego.
2325
01:55:42,880 --> 01:55:48,480
Kutto cut the number of unique elements
2326
01:55:45,119 --> 01:55:51,119
by nearly 50%. He sold off the theme
2327
01:55:48,480 --> 01:55:53,280
parks. He shut down unprofitable
2328
01:55:51,119 --> 01:55:55,920
production facilities. [music] He
2329
01:55:53,280 --> 01:55:58,239
centralized supply chains, standardized
2330
01:55:55,920 --> 01:56:01,440
materials, and brought back discipline
2331
01:55:58,239 --> 01:56:03,520
to the system. But more important, he
2332
01:56:01,440 --> 01:56:06,520
put the brick back at the center of the
2333
01:56:03,520 --> 01:56:06,520
company.
2334
01:56:08,159 --> 01:56:13,040
This turnaround didn't happen in
2335
01:56:10,000 --> 01:56:16,320
isolation. The global toy industry was
2336
01:56:13,040 --> 01:56:18,880
undergoing a seismic change. China was
2337
01:56:16,320 --> 01:56:21,440
producing nearly 75% of the world's
2338
01:56:18,880 --> 01:56:24,560
toys, being the largest manufacturing
2339
01:56:21,440 --> 01:56:26,719
consolidation in toy history.
2340
01:56:24,560 --> 01:56:29,280
Meanwhile, the United States had become
2341
01:56:26,719 --> 01:56:31,520
the single largest consumer, responsible
2342
01:56:29,280 --> 01:56:34,520
for nearly onethird of the global toy
2343
01:56:31,520 --> 01:56:34,520
spending.
2344
01:56:34,719 --> 01:56:40,800
By 2005, the toy market was worth close
2345
01:56:38,320 --> 01:56:44,239
to 80 billion US.
2346
01:56:40,800 --> 01:56:46,639
But it was brutally competitive as well.
2347
01:56:44,239 --> 01:56:49,040
Seasonality [music] was extreme. Nearly
2348
01:56:46,639 --> 01:56:51,520
half of the annual toy sales occurred in
2349
01:56:49,040 --> 01:56:53,199
just 3 months [music] from October to
2350
01:56:51,520 --> 01:56:56,320
December.
2351
01:56:53,199 --> 01:56:58,400
Companies lived or died by Christmas.
2352
01:56:56,320 --> 01:57:01,199
Mattel was battling declining Barbie
2353
01:56:58,400 --> 01:57:02,639
sales. Hasbro was betting its future on
2354
01:57:01,199 --> 01:57:04,239
Transformers and board game
2355
01:57:02,639 --> 01:57:06,080
reinventions.
2356
01:57:04,239 --> 01:57:09,040
Electronics were eating market share
2357
01:57:06,080 --> 01:57:13,440
across every age group. In this
2358
01:57:09,040 --> 01:57:19,400
scenario, LEGO rebuilt and refocused and
2359
01:57:13,440 --> 01:57:19,400
then began rising above all of them.
2360
01:57:22,560 --> 01:57:29,846
Between 2008 and 2015, LEGO entered a
2361
01:57:26,800 --> 01:57:31,760
new era, a renaissance driven by design,
2362
01:57:29,846 --> 01:57:35,280
[music] storytelling, digital
2363
01:57:31,760 --> 01:57:37,119
engagement, and adult passion.
2364
01:57:35,280 --> 01:57:40,000
The company launched the ultimate
2365
01:57:37,119 --> 01:57:42,000
collector series, producing the largest,
2366
01:57:40,000 --> 01:57:43,520
most [music] detailed models in toy
2367
01:57:42,000 --> 01:57:45,760
history.
2368
01:57:43,520 --> 01:57:47,280
Lego architecture brought landmarks to
2369
01:57:45,760 --> 01:57:49,599
coffee tables. [music]
2370
01:57:47,280 --> 01:57:52,239
Modular buildings turned living rooms
2371
01:57:49,599 --> 01:57:54,639
into miniature cities, and adults were
2372
01:57:52,239 --> 01:57:57,520
no longer hiding their Lego hobby, but
2373
01:57:54,639 --> 01:57:59,520
embracing it. My story with Lego began
2374
01:57:57,520 --> 01:58:01,440
in the early 90s when I was a small
2375
01:57:59,520 --> 01:58:03,760
child.
2376
01:58:01,440 --> 01:58:06,800
I started playing but then I stopped for
2377
01:58:03,760 --> 01:58:08,880
a while. This is what most of us want to
2378
01:58:06,800 --> 01:58:10,880
do when we are teenagers to do other
2379
01:58:08,880 --> 01:58:13,880
hobbies and spend less time playing with
2380
01:58:10,880 --> 01:58:13,880
Lego.
2381
01:58:14,480 --> 01:58:19,760
After that, when I was in my early 20s,
2382
01:58:16,400 --> 01:58:21,920
I started collecting Lego. I met people
2383
01:58:19,760 --> 01:58:24,480
from the Valencian community and founded
2384
01:58:21,920 --> 01:58:26,320
Valre.
2385
01:58:24,480 --> 01:58:28,880
That eventually led me to a television
2386
01:58:26,320 --> 01:58:31,119
show where I took part and won. From
2387
01:58:28,880 --> 01:58:34,599
there, companies began approaching me to
2388
01:58:31,119 --> 01:58:34,599
develop projects.
2389
01:58:35,920 --> 01:58:39,679
At first, this hadn't even [music]
2390
01:58:37,360 --> 01:58:41,920
occurred to me.
2391
01:58:39,679 --> 01:58:44,239
But I started to see a growing demand,
2392
01:58:41,920 --> 01:58:46,159
whether it was building a corporate kit,
2393
01:58:44,239 --> 01:58:47,840
like a transport company's truck [music]
2394
01:58:46,159 --> 01:58:49,760
or even a company's logistics
2395
01:58:47,840 --> 01:58:51,440
headquarters.
2396
01:58:49,760 --> 01:58:53,520
This market opened up a professional
2397
01:58:51,440 --> 01:58:55,440
path for me.
2398
01:58:53,520 --> 01:58:58,880
It supports me financially, but more
2399
01:58:55,440 --> 01:59:00,880
importantly, it's deeply rewarding.
2400
01:58:58,880 --> 01:59:02,480
Many of these projects challenge me to
2401
01:59:00,880 --> 01:59:04,000
build things I would never choose on my
2402
01:59:02,480 --> 01:59:06,719
own.
2403
01:59:04,000 --> 01:59:08,639
But once a challenge is set, build this,
2404
01:59:06,719 --> 01:59:11,440
my mind immediately starts collecting
2405
01:59:08,639 --> 01:59:13,440
ideas, figuring out how to shape them
2406
01:59:11,440 --> 01:59:17,239
and bring the project to life in the
2407
01:59:13,440 --> 01:59:17,239
best possible way.
2408
01:59:18,639 --> 01:59:24,000
The adult [music] fans of Lego
2409
01:59:20,400 --> 01:59:26,960
skyrocketed. forums, conventions, fan
2410
01:59:24,000 --> 01:59:31,040
events, engineering clubs. A global
2411
01:59:26,960 --> 01:59:33,360
movement emerged. By 2014, adults
2412
01:59:31,040 --> 01:59:34,560
accounted for nearly 1/3 [music] of LEGO
2413
01:59:33,360 --> 01:59:37,040
sales.
2414
01:59:34,560 --> 01:59:39,280
>> To anyone who thinks Lego is only for
2415
01:59:37,040 --> 01:59:40,880
children, I'd say come and see the
2416
01:59:39,280 --> 01:59:42,719
exhibition.
2417
01:59:40,880 --> 01:59:45,440
See what we're capable of creating with
2418
01:59:42,719 --> 01:59:49,520
Lego pieces and how imagination develops
2419
01:59:45,440 --> 01:59:51,679
in both children and adults.
2420
01:59:49,520 --> 01:59:54,480
Children work within certain limits and
2421
01:59:51,679 --> 01:59:57,199
see things differently, but adults with
2422
01:59:54,480 --> 01:59:59,840
a wider range of colors, shapes, and
2423
01:59:57,199 --> 02:00:02,960
ways to use the pieces can explore just
2424
01:59:59,840 --> 02:00:04,960
how much is possible.
2425
02:00:02,960 --> 02:00:07,360
>> It was a radical shift in the economics
2426
02:00:04,960 --> 02:00:09,760
of play. [music] And then came the
2427
02:00:07,360 --> 02:00:12,800
cultural explosion.
2428
02:00:09,760 --> 02:00:15,920
In 2014, The Lego Movie shattered
2429
02:00:12,800 --> 02:00:19,199
expectations, earning nearly $500
2430
02:00:15,920 --> 02:00:22,159
million US [music] at the box office.
2431
02:00:19,199 --> 02:00:25,760
What started as a toy was now pop
2432
02:00:22,159 --> 02:00:27,840
culture. By the mid 2010s,
2433
02:00:25,760 --> 02:00:30,320
Lego was the world's most valuable toy
2434
02:00:27,840 --> 02:00:33,520
company, even surpassing [music] Mattel,
2435
02:00:30,320 --> 02:00:35,520
Hasbro, and every other competitor.
2436
02:00:33,520 --> 02:00:38,960
The brick [music] that started it all
2437
02:00:35,520 --> 02:00:42,520
was no longer just a product. It was a
2438
02:00:38,960 --> 02:00:42,520
global icon.
2439
02:00:44,400 --> 02:00:48,480
The LEGO Group stands today as one of
2440
02:00:46,719 --> 02:00:50,480
the most efficient, [music] profitable,
2441
02:00:48,480 --> 02:00:53,280
and culturally influential toy companies
2442
02:00:50,480 --> 02:00:55,520
on Earth. Its factories run with near
2443
02:00:53,280 --> 02:00:57,679
perfect precision.
2444
02:00:55,520 --> 02:01:00,880
Its design teams develop thousands of
2445
02:00:57,679 --> 02:01:02,800
prototypes each year. Its supply chain
2446
02:01:00,880 --> 02:01:05,679
delivers billions of bricks that must
2447
02:01:02,800 --> 02:01:07,520
all fit together flawlessly across
2448
02:01:05,679 --> 02:01:10,239
decades.
2449
02:01:07,520 --> 02:01:14,239
In a global toy market worth roughly
2450
02:01:10,239 --> 02:01:18,560
$120 billion a year, Lego commands
2451
02:01:14,239 --> 02:01:21,440
nearly 9% of all worldwide toy sales. No
2452
02:01:18,560 --> 02:01:24,320
other toy brand, not Barbie, not Marvel
2453
02:01:21,440 --> 02:01:26,400
figures, not Nintendo merchandise,
2454
02:01:24,320 --> 02:01:30,159
maintains such consistency across
2455
02:01:26,400 --> 02:01:32,159
continents, genders, and generations.
2456
02:01:30,159 --> 02:01:35,280
And unlike most toy companies that
2457
02:01:32,159 --> 02:01:36,719
outsource manufacturing, LEGO controls a
2458
02:01:35,280 --> 02:01:39,840
significant portion of its own
2459
02:01:36,719 --> 02:01:42,400
production with major hubs in Denmark,
2460
02:01:39,840 --> 02:01:44,400
Hungary, Mexico, China, and the Czech
2461
02:01:42,400 --> 02:01:47,199
Republic.
2462
02:01:44,400 --> 02:01:49,760
This vertical integration reduces risk,
2463
02:01:47,199 --> 02:01:51,599
stabilizes quality, and protects one of
2464
02:01:49,760 --> 02:01:54,880
the most important values in the
2465
02:01:51,599 --> 02:01:57,199
company's DNA, precision.
2466
02:01:54,880 --> 02:01:59,520
Every Lego brick must be manufactured
2467
02:01:57,199 --> 02:02:02,639
with tolerances thinner than a strand of
2468
02:01:59,520 --> 02:02:06,159
hair. If the clutch is too tight, the
2469
02:02:02,639 --> 02:02:09,280
model breaks. If it's too loose, towers
2470
02:02:06,159 --> 02:02:12,000
collapse. Across billions of pieces,
2471
02:02:09,280 --> 02:02:16,159
perfection is not an [music] ambition.
2472
02:02:12,000 --> 02:02:18,239
It is an engineering reality for LEGO.
2473
02:02:16,159 --> 02:02:20,320
This level of detail gives the company
2474
02:02:18,239 --> 02:02:23,040
one of the highest brand trust ratings
2475
02:02:20,320 --> 02:02:24,320
in the world. Parents know the bricks
2476
02:02:23,040 --> 02:02:26,800
will last.
2477
02:02:24,320 --> 02:02:29,040
Adults know the sets will impress.
2478
02:02:26,800 --> 02:02:30,719
Collectors know the investment will hold
2479
02:02:29,040 --> 02:02:32,960
value.
2480
02:02:30,719 --> 02:02:35,679
The modern toy market is a machine of
2481
02:02:32,960 --> 02:02:37,440
impulse, tradition, celebration, and
2482
02:02:35,679 --> 02:02:39,360
nostalgia.
2483
02:02:37,440 --> 02:02:42,880
In 2025,
2484
02:02:39,360 --> 02:02:45,920
global spending on toys approaches $120
2485
02:02:42,880 --> 02:02:48,639
billion, nearly double what it was two
2486
02:02:45,920 --> 02:02:50,159
decades earlier. The United States
2487
02:02:48,639 --> 02:02:52,239
remains the world's [music] largest
2488
02:02:50,159 --> 02:02:55,360
consumer, accounting for roughly
2489
02:02:52,239 --> 02:02:57,349
onethird of global sales. A typical
2490
02:02:55,360 --> 02:03:00,639
American household with children may
2491
02:02:57,349 --> 02:03:03,520
[music] spend $300 to $400 per child per
2492
02:03:00,639 --> 02:03:06,480
year on toys. This is more than five
2493
02:03:03,520 --> 02:03:08,880
times the global [music] average.
2494
02:03:06,480 --> 02:03:10,560
Europe forms the second largest block
2495
02:03:08,880 --> 02:03:14,000
with strong purchasing [music] power in
2496
02:03:10,560 --> 02:03:16,480
Germany, the United Kingdom, and France.
2497
02:03:14,000 --> 02:03:18,080
Asia-Pacific is rapidly growing,
2498
02:03:16,480 --> 02:03:20,960
especially in [music] China, South
2499
02:03:18,080 --> 02:03:24,480
Korea, and Japan, driven by rising
2500
02:03:20,960 --> 02:03:26,880
middle classes and urban lifestyles.
2501
02:03:24,480 --> 02:03:30,239
But the most important shift of the last
2502
02:03:26,880 --> 02:03:33,430
decade is not geographic, it is
2503
02:03:30,239 --> 02:03:33,430
demographic. [laughter]
2504
02:03:37,280 --> 02:03:42,159
Adults, once considered irrelevant to
2505
02:03:39,940 --> 02:03:45,280
[music] the toy industry, are now one of
2506
02:03:42,159 --> 02:03:48,400
the most powerful forces. This growing
2507
02:03:45,280 --> 02:03:51,760
segment, commonly called the kid market,
2508
02:03:48,400 --> 02:03:54,639
now represents between 25 and 30% of all
2509
02:03:51,760 --> 02:03:56,960
toy purchases worldwide.
2510
02:03:54,639 --> 02:04:00,320
Adults buy toys for nostalgia, [music]
2511
02:03:56,960 --> 02:04:01,760
for stress relief, for display, for
2512
02:04:00,320 --> 02:04:04,000
identity.
2513
02:04:01,760 --> 02:04:05,119
Lego is the undisputed champion of this
2514
02:04:04,000 --> 02:04:07,520
movement.
2515
02:04:05,119 --> 02:04:10,840
>> Unlike other hobbies, Lego gives me a
2516
02:04:07,520 --> 02:04:10,840
sense of calm.
2517
02:04:12,000 --> 02:04:16,639
It lets me take ideas from my mind,
2518
02:04:14,320 --> 02:04:20,000
bring them to life, think them through,
2519
02:04:16,639 --> 02:04:22,800
and simply enjoy the process. Right now,
2520
02:04:20,000 --> 02:04:25,119
I'm trying to instill that in my son to
2521
02:04:22,800 --> 02:04:27,280
enjoy himself, to learn to see colors
2522
02:04:25,119 --> 02:04:30,719
and shapes, and to understand that with
2523
02:04:27,280 --> 02:04:33,635
imagination, anything is possible.
2524
02:04:30,719 --> 02:04:35,599
Its premium sets, Technic Hypercars,
2525
02:04:33,635 --> 02:04:38,719
[music] Star Wars Ultimate Collector
2526
02:04:35,599 --> 02:04:41,599
Series, iconic landmarks, regularly
2527
02:04:38,719 --> 02:04:43,840
exceed prices of $30,500,
2528
02:04:41,599 --> 02:04:46,639
even $800.
2529
02:04:43,840 --> 02:04:48,480
They sell out within hours. They hold
2530
02:04:46,639 --> 02:04:51,280
aftermarket values like fine
2531
02:04:48,480 --> 02:04:53,520
collectibles. This adult segment has
2532
02:04:51,280 --> 02:04:56,639
reshaped the entire financial landscape
2533
02:04:53,520 --> 02:04:59,679
of the company. It provides stability
2534
02:04:56,639 --> 02:05:02,639
when children's trends shift. It creates
2535
02:04:59,679 --> 02:05:05,040
recurring revenue from loyal fans, and
2536
02:05:02,639 --> 02:05:08,000
it strengthens LEGO's position as a
2537
02:05:05,040 --> 02:05:11,040
crossgenerational brand, something few
2538
02:05:08,000 --> 02:05:13,280
toy companies have ever achieved.
2539
02:05:11,040 --> 02:05:16,239
Seasonality still dictates much of the
2540
02:05:13,280 --> 02:05:18,480
global toy market. Every year, nearly
2541
02:05:16,239 --> 02:05:21,840
half of all toy sales occur between
2542
02:05:18,480 --> 02:05:24,719
October and December. Companies live or
2543
02:05:21,840 --> 02:05:28,080
die by holiday forecasting, inventory
2544
02:05:24,719 --> 02:05:30,800
strategy, and shipment timing. But LEGO
2545
02:05:28,080 --> 02:05:33,679
has become the exception. Adult
2546
02:05:30,800 --> 02:05:36,000
collectors buy year round. Digital
2547
02:05:33,679 --> 02:05:39,119
experiences drive sales outside the
2548
02:05:36,000 --> 02:05:42,400
holiday season. Licensed launches create
2549
02:05:39,119 --> 02:05:45,119
anticipation even in slow quarters.
2550
02:05:42,400 --> 02:05:47,040
LEGO has effectively freed itself or at
2551
02:05:45,119 --> 02:05:49,199
least partially from the seasonal
2552
02:05:47,040 --> 02:05:51,840
dependency that has defined the toy
2553
02:05:49,199 --> 02:05:54,800
industry for over a century.
2554
02:05:51,840 --> 02:05:57,520
The brick is physical, tangible,
2555
02:05:54,800 --> 02:06:00,400
mechanical. But LEGO's success in the
2556
02:05:57,520 --> 02:06:05,199
21st century extends into digital
2557
02:06:00,400 --> 02:06:07,520
worlds. Star Wars, Batman, Marvel. These
2558
02:06:05,199 --> 02:06:10,800
games defined an entire generation of
2559
02:06:07,520 --> 02:06:13,360
familyfriendly titles. They sold tens of
2560
02:06:10,800 --> 02:06:16,560
millions of copies. They introduced
2561
02:06:13,360 --> 02:06:20,080
humor, storytelling, and simplicity to a
2562
02:06:16,560 --> 02:06:22,239
medium often dominated by complexity.
2563
02:06:20,080 --> 02:06:25,199
For many children born after the year
2564
02:06:22,239 --> 02:06:29,119
2000, Lego was not discovered in a toy
2565
02:06:25,199 --> 02:06:31,920
box, but on a screen. The cinematic leap
2566
02:06:29,119 --> 02:06:34,719
came in 2014 when the Lego movie
2567
02:06:31,920 --> 02:06:37,520
premiered to global acclaim. It earned
2568
02:06:34,719 --> 02:06:40,159
nearly half a billion dollars. Most
2569
02:06:37,520 --> 02:06:43,520
importantly, it reframed Lego as a
2570
02:06:40,159 --> 02:06:45,840
cultural idea, not a product. The film
2571
02:06:43,520 --> 02:06:49,119
taught a global audience that creativity
2572
02:06:45,840 --> 02:06:51,199
matters, that imperfection is beautiful,
2573
02:06:49,119 --> 02:06:54,960
that building and rebuilding are not
2574
02:06:51,199 --> 02:06:58,079
failures, they are the process of play.
2575
02:06:54,960 --> 02:07:00,239
Lego Batman expanded the concept. Lego
2576
02:06:58,079 --> 02:07:03,599
Ninjago created an entirely new
2577
02:07:00,239 --> 02:07:05,679
generation of fans and Lego Masters on
2578
02:07:03,599 --> 02:07:07,840
television turned building into a
2579
02:07:05,679 --> 02:07:10,239
competitive art form.
2580
02:07:07,840 --> 02:07:13,520
The brand had moved beyond toys, [music]
2581
02:07:10,239 --> 02:07:15,599
beyond stories, beyond bricks. It had
2582
02:07:13,520 --> 02:07:19,480
become part of the cultural grammar of
2583
02:07:15,599 --> 02:07:19,480
the 21st century.
2584
02:07:23,199 --> 02:07:27,520
Long before STEM became a global
2585
02:07:25,280 --> 02:07:30,719
movement, Lego was already teaching
2586
02:07:27,520 --> 02:07:33,599
children how to think like engineers. In
2587
02:07:30,719 --> 02:07:35,760
the 1990s, LEGO Mindstorms [music]
2588
02:07:33,599 --> 02:07:39,360
introduced programmable robotics to
2589
02:07:35,760 --> 02:07:42,239
students around the world. Later sets,
2590
02:07:39,360 --> 02:07:44,400
we do Spike Prime, Boost, brought
2591
02:07:42,239 --> 02:07:47,760
coding, sensors, and motors into
2592
02:07:44,400 --> 02:07:49,760
classrooms and homes. Today, LEGO
2593
02:07:47,760 --> 02:07:52,000
Education works with governments,
2594
02:07:49,760 --> 02:07:53,760
schools, and universities to bring
2595
02:07:52,000 --> 02:07:57,040
hands-on learning to millions [music] of
2596
02:07:53,760 --> 02:07:59,679
students. The philosophy is simple.
2597
02:07:57,040 --> 02:08:02,079
Children learn best through play. This
2598
02:07:59,679 --> 02:08:05,203
approach shapes future engineers,
2599
02:08:02,079 --> 02:08:06,960
designers, and problem solvers. It helps
2600
02:08:05,203 --> 02:08:09,840
[music] children experiment in ways that
2601
02:08:06,960 --> 02:08:12,719
textbooks cannot. And it continues
2602
02:08:09,840 --> 02:08:14,560
Olirk's belief that play is not a
2603
02:08:12,719 --> 02:08:17,520
distraction [music] from learning, but
2604
02:08:14,560 --> 02:08:19,599
the foundation of it.
2605
02:08:17,520 --> 02:08:20,400
In a world increasingly focused on
2606
02:08:19,599 --> 02:08:22,400
sustainability, [music]
2607
02:08:20,400 --> 02:08:24,320
>> from my experience, what makes Lego
2608
02:08:22,400 --> 02:08:27,199
different from other construction toys
2609
02:08:24,320 --> 02:08:29,520
is its growing commitment to inclusion.
2610
02:08:27,199 --> 02:08:30,880
In recent years, LEGO has actively
2611
02:08:29,520 --> 02:08:33,119
embraced people with different
2612
02:08:30,880 --> 02:08:35,040
abilities. For example, by including
2613
02:08:33,119 --> 02:08:37,760
figures in wheelchairs and releasing
2614
02:08:35,040 --> 02:08:39,599
sets in Braille. These are things most
2615
02:08:37,760 --> 02:08:41,679
other brands simply don't offer, but
2616
02:08:39,599 --> 02:08:43,920
LEGO does.
2617
02:08:41,679 --> 02:08:45,840
In addition, LEGO is strongly committed
2618
02:08:43,920 --> 02:08:47,440
to the environment.
2619
02:08:45,840 --> 02:08:49,679
They're producing more and more pieces
2620
02:08:47,440 --> 02:08:51,280
using recycled plastic and replacing
2621
02:08:49,679 --> 02:08:53,599
plastic packaging [music] with paper to
2622
02:08:51,280 --> 02:08:57,040
reduce waste, something other brands
2623
02:08:53,599 --> 02:09:00,079
simply don't do.
2624
02:08:57,040 --> 02:09:02,560
Lego faces a unique challenge. Its
2625
02:09:00,079 --> 02:09:05,040
bricks are made to last forever. A
2626
02:09:02,560 --> 02:09:08,719
blessing for creativity, but a concern
2627
02:09:05,040 --> 02:09:10,800
in an era of plastic waste. In response,
2628
02:09:08,719 --> 02:09:12,719
LEGO has invested hundreds of millions
2629
02:09:10,800 --> 02:09:14,880
of dollars into developing more
2630
02:09:12,719 --> 02:09:17,520
sustainable materials.
2631
02:09:14,880 --> 02:09:20,239
Plant-based polyethylene is already used
2632
02:09:17,520 --> 02:09:23,760
for leaves and trees. Recycled [music]
2633
02:09:20,239 --> 02:09:26,239
PT prototypes continue to advance.
2634
02:09:23,760 --> 02:09:27,760
Recycled PET prototypes continue to
2635
02:09:26,239 --> 02:09:30,079
advance.
2636
02:09:27,760 --> 02:09:33,440
New polymer engineering aims to create
2637
02:09:30,079 --> 02:09:36,000
bricks [music] as durable as ABS without
2638
02:09:33,440 --> 02:09:36,960
the environmental cost.
2639
02:09:36,000 --> 02:09:40,000
This transition [music]
2640
02:09:36,960 --> 02:09:42,880
is not simple. A Lego brick must
2641
02:09:40,000 --> 02:09:44,764
interlock with perfect precision. A
2642
02:09:42,880 --> 02:09:46,480
fraction of a millimeter can make the
2643
02:09:44,764 --> 02:09:48,000
[music] difference between wonder and
2644
02:09:46,480 --> 02:09:50,639
frustration.
2645
02:09:48,000 --> 02:09:52,480
But the mission is clear. A toy that
2646
02:09:50,639 --> 02:09:55,599
lasts [music] forever should also
2647
02:09:52,480 --> 02:09:57,280
protect the world it is played in. Play
2648
02:09:55,599 --> 02:10:01,520
is not a luxury. [music]
2649
02:09:57,280 --> 02:10:03,760
Play is exploration. Play is curiosity.
2650
02:10:01,520 --> 02:10:05,679
Play is the earliest form of human
2651
02:10:03,760 --> 02:10:07,760
creativity.
2652
02:10:05,679 --> 02:10:10,320
From wooden ducks in a small Danish
2653
02:10:07,760 --> 02:10:12,400
workshop to interlocking bricks that
2654
02:10:10,320 --> 02:10:15,760
span generations
2655
02:10:12,400 --> 02:10:18,639
to movies, video games, robotics, and
2656
02:10:15,760 --> 02:10:21,280
global fan communities. LEGO has
2657
02:10:18,639 --> 02:10:25,119
remained loyal to a simple truth. When
2658
02:10:21,280 --> 02:10:28,800
we build, we grow. When we imagine, we
2659
02:10:25,119 --> 02:10:31,800
expand. When we play, we become more
2660
02:10:28,800 --> 02:10:31,800
human.
2661
02:10:35,679 --> 02:10:41,360
More than a century ago, a carpenter
2662
02:10:38,480 --> 02:10:44,239
rebuilt his workshop after a fire. He
2663
02:10:41,360 --> 02:10:47,040
rebuilt [music] it again after another.
2664
02:10:44,239 --> 02:10:49,520
Not because it was easy, but because he
2665
02:10:47,040 --> 02:10:52,960
believed in the power of making things
2666
02:10:49,520 --> 02:10:54,960
and in the power [music] of play. Today,
2667
02:10:52,960 --> 02:10:58,560
billions of creations have risen from
2668
02:10:54,960 --> 02:11:00,400
that belief. Cities, castles,
2669
02:10:58,560 --> 02:11:02,400
spaceships,
2670
02:11:00,400 --> 02:11:05,599
dreams that exist nowhere else but in
2671
02:11:02,400 --> 02:11:08,639
the minds of the people who build them.
2672
02:11:05,599 --> 02:11:10,639
Lego is not perfect. It has faced
2673
02:11:08,639 --> 02:11:14,639
crises, challenges, [screaming]
2674
02:11:10,639 --> 02:11:16,639
and impossible decisions. But it endures
2675
02:11:14,639 --> 02:11:20,079
through war, through technological
2676
02:11:16,639 --> 02:11:23,679
revolutions, through economic storms.
2677
02:11:20,079 --> 02:11:25,599
Because imagination always endures.
2678
02:11:23,679 --> 02:11:28,480
And as long as there are hands reaching
2679
02:11:25,599 --> 02:11:31,599
for bricks, as long as there are minds
2680
02:11:28,480 --> 02:11:34,480
ready to create, the legacy of Ole Ker
2681
02:11:31,599 --> 02:11:37,199
Christensen will continue.
2682
02:11:34,480 --> 02:11:40,199
Every [music] dream starts with a single
2683
02:11:37,199 --> 02:11:40,199
piece.
2684
02:13:06,400 --> 02:13:14,159
Jensen Hang the Software Moat.
2685
02:13:10,719 --> 02:13:17,520
June 18th, 2024.
2686
02:13:14,159 --> 02:13:19,607
For a brief historic moment, the world
2687
02:13:17,520 --> 02:13:22,639
had a new king.
2688
02:13:19,607 --> 02:13:25,520
[music] Jensen Huang, the co-founder and
2689
02:13:22,639 --> 02:13:29,760
CEO of Nvidia, stood at the peak of a
2690
02:13:25,520 --> 02:13:32,079
$3.4 trillion mountain.
2691
02:13:29,760 --> 02:13:35,119
Analysts whispered that he wasn't just
2692
02:13:32,079 --> 02:13:37,760
leading a company. He was leading the
2693
02:13:35,119 --> 02:13:41,679
first entity [music] destined for a $4
2694
02:13:37,760 --> 02:13:43,599
trillion valuation.
2695
02:13:41,679 --> 02:13:47,119
But to understand the man in the leather
2696
02:13:43,599 --> 02:13:49,920
jacket, you cannot look at the triumph.
2697
02:13:47,119 --> 02:13:53,920
You must look at the fear.
2698
02:13:49,920 --> 02:13:58,000
Behind the 250% revenue jumps and the
2699
02:13:53,920 --> 02:14:01,119
soldout age 100 backlogs lies a leader
2700
02:13:58,000 --> 02:14:02,800
obsessed with the cyclical trap.
2701
02:14:01,119 --> 02:14:05,280
In the 60-year history of
2702
02:14:02,800 --> 02:14:08,480
semiconductors, [music] giants like
2703
02:14:05,280 --> 02:14:11,920
Texas Instruments, Intel, and Samsung
2704
02:14:08,480 --> 02:14:14,320
have all held the crown only to see it
2705
02:14:11,920 --> 02:14:17,360
slip away.
2706
02:14:14,320 --> 02:14:22,159
Jensen's mission is simple. Break the
2707
02:14:17,360 --> 02:14:25,280
cycle before it breaks him.
2708
02:14:22,159 --> 02:14:27,840
Flashback to September 1996.
2709
02:14:25,280 --> 02:14:30,239
The golden era of the internet is
2710
02:14:27,840 --> 02:14:34,239
dawning for everyone else but for
2711
02:14:30,239 --> 02:14:37,280
Nvidia. It is a death nail.
2712
02:14:34,239 --> 02:14:40,239
Their first chip, the NV1, is a
2713
02:14:37,280 --> 02:14:42,719
technical ghost rejected by Microsoft's
2714
02:14:40,239 --> 02:14:45,280
DirectX.
2715
02:14:42,719 --> 02:14:48,079
Jensen stands before a dwindling team
2716
02:14:45,280 --> 02:14:50,719
and delivers the most famous mantra in
2717
02:14:48,079 --> 02:14:54,639
Silicon Valley history.
2718
02:14:50,719 --> 02:14:58,239
We have exactly 30 days of oxygen left.
2719
02:14:54,639 --> 02:15:00,560
We are 30 days from bankruptcy.
2720
02:14:58,239 --> 02:15:02,960
How does a man go from cleaning toilets
2721
02:15:00,560 --> 02:15:04,960
in a Kentucky reform school to
2722
02:15:02,960 --> 02:15:08,079
controlling the foundational layer of
2723
02:15:04,960 --> 02:15:10,960
the global AI economy?
2724
02:15:08,079 --> 02:15:14,239
From a red leather booth at a Denny's to
2725
02:15:10,960 --> 02:15:16,560
a legal showdown in the US Supreme Court
2726
02:15:14,239 --> 02:15:18,320
over the very intellectual honesty of
2727
02:15:16,560 --> 02:15:20,960
his empire.
2728
02:15:18,320 --> 02:15:22,480
This is not just a story of silicon and
2729
02:15:20,960 --> 02:15:24,639
software.
2730
02:15:22,480 --> 02:15:26,880
This is the chronicle of the man who
2731
02:15:24,639 --> 02:15:28,480
decided to manufacture intelligence
2732
02:15:26,880 --> 02:15:32,079
itself.
2733
02:15:28,480 --> 02:15:35,520
This is Jensen Hang, the architect of
2734
02:15:32,079 --> 02:15:40,760
the digital brain.
2735
02:15:35,520 --> 02:15:40,760
Chapter 1. Forged in the chaos,
2736
02:15:40,960 --> 02:15:46,960
Nvidia was not born from abundance. Its
2737
02:15:44,400 --> 02:15:49,040
DNA was forged in the raw fires of
2738
02:15:46,960 --> 02:15:51,920
survival.
2739
02:15:49,040 --> 02:15:54,639
Jen's son Huang arrived in the United
2740
02:15:51,920 --> 02:15:58,000
States as a young migrant, but his
2741
02:15:54,639 --> 02:16:00,400
destination wasn't an elite prep school.
2742
02:15:58,000 --> 02:16:01,679
Due to a clerical misunderstanding by
2743
02:16:00,400 --> 02:16:04,079
his parents, [music]
2744
02:16:01,679 --> 02:16:07,520
he was sent to Onida Baptist Institute
2745
02:16:04,079 --> 02:16:10,320
in rural Kentucky, a place that at the
2746
02:16:07,520 --> 02:16:12,719
time functioned more as a reform school
2747
02:16:10,320 --> 02:16:14,239
for troubled youths than a traditional
2748
02:16:12,719 --> 02:16:17,360
academy.
2749
02:16:14,239 --> 02:16:19,440
At 9 years old, the future CEO of one of
2750
02:16:17,360 --> 02:16:22,000
the world's most valuable companies
2751
02:16:19,440 --> 02:16:24,960
wasn't coding. He was cleaning the
2752
02:16:22,000 --> 02:16:27,440
toilets of [music] 150 teenagers every
2753
02:16:24,960 --> 02:16:30,000
single afternoon.
2754
02:16:27,440 --> 02:16:31,599
In his personal transcripts, Jensen
2755
02:16:30,000 --> 02:16:35,120
reflects on this with a chilling
2756
02:16:31,599 --> 02:16:37,519
stoicism. I didn't complain. I just
2757
02:16:35,120 --> 02:16:39,439
learned to work hard.
2758
02:16:37,519 --> 02:16:42,080
Bad boy learned the first law of
2759
02:16:39,439 --> 02:16:45,679
accelerated computing decades before it
2760
02:16:42,080 --> 02:16:48,240
existed. For a system to be efficient,
2761
02:16:45,679 --> 02:16:51,439
it must be able to process chaos under
2762
02:16:48,240 --> 02:16:54,559
extreme pressure.
2763
02:16:51,439 --> 02:16:56,960
By 15, Jensen was the most efficient
2764
02:16:54,559 --> 02:16:59,840
dishwasher and waiter at a Denny's in
2765
02:16:56,960 --> 02:17:02,479
Portland. I was incredibly shy, [music]
2766
02:16:59,840 --> 02:17:05,519
he admits. But the chaos of the kitchen
2767
02:17:02,479 --> 02:17:08,000
forced me out of my shell.
2768
02:17:05,519 --> 02:17:11,599
It is no coincidence that Nvidia was
2769
02:17:08,000 --> 02:17:14,319
founded in 1993 inside a booth at that
2770
02:17:11,599 --> 02:17:16,000
very same restaurant chain.
2771
02:17:14,319 --> 02:17:17,920
While the [music] world saw the dawn of
2772
02:17:16,000 --> 02:17:21,439
the PC as an office tool for
2773
02:17:17,920 --> 02:17:26,960
spreadsheets, Jensen, Chris Mahovski,
2774
02:17:21,439 --> 02:17:30,160
and Curtis Pium saw a fatal weakness.
2775
02:17:26,960 --> 02:17:34,080
In 1993, [music] Intel's generalpurpose
2776
02:17:30,160 --> 02:17:36,160
CPU was hitting a physical wall. If the
2777
02:17:34,080 --> 02:17:38,639
future of computing was visual and
2778
02:17:36,160 --> 02:17:40,719
immersive, the traditional serial
2779
02:17:38,639 --> 02:17:43,120
architecture would become the bottleneck
2780
02:17:40,719 --> 02:17:46,559
of human progress.
2781
02:17:43,120 --> 02:17:49,679
With only $40,000 in startup capital,
2782
02:17:46,559 --> 02:17:52,160
they founded Nvidia to chase a ghost,
2783
02:17:49,679 --> 02:17:54,080
accelerated computing.
2784
02:17:52,160 --> 02:17:57,120
They bet on a market the rest of the
2785
02:17:54,080 --> 02:18:00,240
industry dismissed as a niche for toys,
2786
02:17:57,120 --> 02:18:01,920
video games. Before Jensen, [music]
2787
02:18:00,240 --> 02:18:04,319
video games were the ultimate
2788
02:18:01,920 --> 02:18:06,319
technological flywheel.
2789
02:18:04,319 --> 02:18:08,240
He knew that if you could master the
2790
02:18:06,319 --> 02:18:10,800
massive realtime [music] rendering of
2791
02:18:08,240 --> 02:18:13,519
pixels, you could eventually simulate
2792
02:18:10,800 --> 02:18:15,920
reality itself.
2793
02:18:13,519 --> 02:18:18,240
But before they could reach that glory,
2794
02:18:15,920 --> 02:18:22,840
they had to survive their first massive
2795
02:18:18,240 --> 02:18:22,840
technical abyss, the NV1.
2796
02:18:30,160 --> 02:18:37,359
By 1995, Nvidia's first massive bet, the
2797
02:18:34,399 --> 02:18:40,000
NV1 chip, was ready to conquer the
2798
02:18:37,359 --> 02:18:43,040
market. But Jensen Huang had made a
2799
02:18:40,000 --> 02:18:44,639
catastrophic technical gamble.
2800
02:18:43,040 --> 02:18:47,920
At a time when the industry was
2801
02:18:44,639 --> 02:18:50,319
undecided, he bet on quadratic texture
2802
02:18:47,920 --> 02:18:53,599
mapping, a method that used curved
2803
02:18:50,319 --> 02:18:55,626
surfaces to create 3D images.
2804
02:18:53,599 --> 02:18:58,880
It was mathematically intelligent,
2805
02:18:55,626 --> 02:19:00,479
[music] but it was a lonely path.
2806
02:18:58,880 --> 02:19:02,176
The industry hammer dropped when
2807
02:19:00,479 --> 02:19:02,880
Microsoft released its first DirectX
2808
02:19:02,176 --> 02:19:06,240
[music]
2809
02:19:02,880 --> 02:19:08,960
API. Microsoft chose triangles, not
2810
02:19:06,240 --> 02:19:10,639
quads, as the universal language for PC
2811
02:19:08,960 --> 02:19:12,479
gaming.
2812
02:19:10,639 --> 02:19:16,000
This decision rendered Nvidia's
2813
02:19:12,479 --> 02:19:19,120
technology instantly [music] obsolete.
2814
02:19:16,000 --> 02:19:22,880
The NV1 wasn't just a failure, it was a
2815
02:19:19,120 --> 02:19:25,760
dead end. The company was bleeding cash,
2816
02:19:22,880 --> 02:19:31,080
and as Jensen famously put it, they were
2817
02:19:25,760 --> 02:19:31,080
staring at exactly 30 days of oxygen.
2818
02:19:31,599 --> 02:19:36,800
Nvidia's only lifeline was a strategic
2819
02:19:34,240 --> 02:19:38,639
contract with the Japanese giant Sega to
2820
02:19:36,800 --> 02:19:41,439
build the graphics engine for the Sega
2821
02:19:38,639 --> 02:19:44,399
Saturn. But Jensen was trapped in a
2822
02:19:41,439 --> 02:19:46,559
moral and business dilemma.
2823
02:19:44,399 --> 02:19:49,120
He knew that if they continued building
2824
02:19:46,559 --> 02:19:52,160
the chip for Sega using Nvidia's flawed
2825
02:19:49,120 --> 02:19:55,040
quad technology, Sega would lose the
2826
02:19:52,160 --> 02:19:58,240
console war to Sony's PlayStation and
2827
02:19:55,040 --> 02:19:59,816
Nvidia would eventually perish anyway.
2828
02:19:58,240 --> 02:20:00,800
In an act of intellectual honesty,
2829
02:19:59,816 --> 02:20:02,960
[music]
2830
02:20:00,800 --> 02:20:06,960
or as many at the time called corporate
2831
02:20:02,960 --> 02:20:10,399
suicide, Jensen flew to Japan. He sat
2832
02:20:06,960 --> 02:20:14,160
across from Shy Chiro Inimiri, the CEO
2833
02:20:10,399 --> 02:20:17,120
of Sega, and told him the brutal truth.
2834
02:20:14,160 --> 02:20:19,520
Our technology is on the wrong path. If
2835
02:20:17,120 --> 02:20:22,479
we finish this project, you will produce
2836
02:20:19,520 --> 02:20:25,359
an inferior product.
2837
02:20:22,479 --> 02:20:27,760
Jensen asked for the impossible. He
2838
02:20:25,359 --> 02:20:30,240
asked Sega to terminate the contract,
2839
02:20:27,760 --> 02:20:32,720
but to pay the remaining $5 million
2840
02:20:30,240 --> 02:20:35,359
anyway. If you don't [music] pay us,
2841
02:20:32,720 --> 02:20:37,600
Jensen pleaded. Nvidia will cease to
2842
02:20:35,359 --> 02:20:40,000
exist tomorrow.
2843
02:20:37,600 --> 02:20:43,520
To the astonishment of the tech world,
2844
02:20:40,000 --> 02:20:46,080
Idlimiri son agreed. He didn't pay for a
2845
02:20:43,520 --> 02:20:48,479
working chip. He paid for Jensen's
2846
02:20:46,080 --> 02:20:51,439
integrity.
2847
02:20:48,479 --> 02:20:53,920
That $5 million was the most expensive
2848
02:20:51,439 --> 02:20:56,720
oxygen in history.
2849
02:20:53,920 --> 02:20:59,120
To make it last, Jensen had to fire half
2850
02:20:56,720 --> 02:21:00,880
of his workforce. These weren't just
2851
02:20:59,120 --> 02:21:03,359
employees. [music] They were friends who
2852
02:21:00,880 --> 02:21:05,439
had shared the Denny's dream. This
2853
02:21:03,359 --> 02:21:09,120
trauma institutionalized a permanent
2854
02:21:05,439 --> 02:21:11,920
state of emergency at Nvidia.
2855
02:21:09,120 --> 02:21:15,840
With the remaining team, Jensen funneled
2856
02:21:11,920 --> 02:21:18,720
every cent into the Reval 128. They
2857
02:21:15,840 --> 02:21:21,200
abandoned quads and embraced Microsoft's
2858
02:21:18,720 --> 02:21:26,720
triangles with a vengeance. When it
2859
02:21:21,200 --> 02:21:28,479
launched in 1997, the Revo 128 was 400%
2860
02:21:26,720 --> 02:21:30,000
faster than anything [music] else on the
2861
02:21:28,479 --> 02:21:32,827
market.
2862
02:21:30,000 --> 02:21:34,800
It was a dive catch of epic proportions.
2863
02:21:32,827 --> 02:21:39,120
[music] Nvidia was no longer just a
2864
02:21:34,800 --> 02:21:42,000
survivor. It had become a hunter.
2865
02:21:39,120 --> 02:21:45,359
But as Jensen looked at the horizon, he
2866
02:21:42,000 --> 02:21:49,640
saw 70 rivals waiting to kill him. The
2867
02:21:45,359 --> 02:21:49,640
war was only beginning.
2868
02:21:54,720 --> 02:22:00,560
The success of the Reva 128 was a dive
2869
02:21:58,080 --> 02:22:04,720
catch, but it placed Nvidia in the
2870
02:22:00,560 --> 02:22:06,960
middle of a slaughter house. By 1997,
2871
02:22:04,720 --> 02:22:10,399
there were over 70 companies fighting
2872
02:22:06,960 --> 02:22:12,399
for the soul of the 3D graphics market.
2873
02:22:10,399 --> 02:22:15,600
It was a commodity war where price
2874
02:22:12,399 --> 02:22:17,840
cutting was the only weapon for most.
2875
02:22:15,600 --> 02:22:20,080
Jensen Hang realized that if Nvidia
2876
02:22:17,840 --> 02:22:23,680
played by the industry's rules, they
2877
02:22:20,080 --> 02:22:27,040
would eventually be ground into dust.
2878
02:22:23,680 --> 02:22:28,960
He decided to break the laws of time.
2879
02:22:27,040 --> 02:22:32,319
The industry standard for developing a
2880
02:22:28,960 --> 02:22:35,520
new chip was 18 to 24 months. Following
2881
02:22:32,319 --> 02:22:37,200
the steady beat of Moore's law, Jensen
2882
02:22:35,520 --> 02:22:40,399
gathered [music] his engineers and
2883
02:22:37,200 --> 02:22:42,560
imposed a suicidal mandate. Nvidia would
2884
02:22:40,399 --> 02:22:47,280
release a brand new groundbreaking
2885
02:22:42,560 --> 02:22:49,200
architecture every 6 months.
2886
02:22:47,280 --> 02:22:50,800
It was a strategy of relentless
2887
02:22:49,200 --> 02:22:54,240
execution.
2888
02:22:50,800 --> 02:22:57,439
By the time a competitor like 3dfx or S3
2889
02:22:54,240 --> 02:23:00,479
could react to one Nvidia chip, Jensen
2890
02:22:57,439 --> 02:23:02,640
had already launched two more. This
2891
02:23:00,479 --> 02:23:04,880
forced the competition into a permanent
2892
02:23:02,640 --> 02:23:07,840
state of obsolescence.
2893
02:23:04,880 --> 02:23:09,920
To achieve this, Nvidia had to reinvent
2894
02:23:07,840 --> 02:23:11,680
its internal engineering, [music]
2895
02:23:09,920 --> 02:23:14,319
running multiple design teams in
2896
02:23:11,680 --> 02:23:16,160
parallel. A massive financial risk that
2897
02:23:14,319 --> 02:23:20,640
pushed the company to the edge of its
2898
02:23:16,160 --> 02:23:23,840
operational capacity. In 1999, the war
2899
02:23:20,640 --> 02:23:27,439
reached its climax. Nvidia released the
2900
02:23:23,840 --> 02:23:30,080
GeForce 256.
2901
02:23:27,439 --> 02:23:32,160
Jensen didn't just market it as a faster
2902
02:23:30,080 --> 02:23:36,240
card. He coined a term that would
2903
02:23:32,160 --> 02:23:39,120
redefine computing history, the GPU,
2904
02:23:36,240 --> 02:23:41,520
graphics processing unit. This wasn't
2905
02:23:39,120 --> 02:23:43,920
just [music] branding. Technically, the
2906
02:23:41,520 --> 02:23:45,840
GeForce 256
2907
02:23:43,920 --> 02:23:47,840
moved the transform and lighting
2908
02:23:45,840 --> 02:23:51,200
calculations, the most heavy
2909
02:23:47,840 --> 02:23:54,080
mathematical lifting of 3D off the CPU
2910
02:23:51,200 --> 02:23:56,640
and onto the chip itself. It was the
2911
02:23:54,080 --> 02:23:59,120
birth of a new era.
2912
02:23:56,640 --> 02:24:01,040
This performance leap was so massive
2913
02:23:59,120 --> 02:24:03,040
that Nvidia secured the prestigious
2914
02:24:01,040 --> 02:24:06,960
contract for the original Microsoft
2915
02:24:03,040 --> 02:24:09,439
Xbox, receiving a crucial $200 million
2916
02:24:06,960 --> 02:24:12,560
advance.
2917
02:24:09,439 --> 02:24:15,200
The 6-month cycle worked. By the early
2918
02:24:12,560 --> 02:24:17,840
2000s, the 70 competitors had been
2919
02:24:15,200 --> 02:24:19,520
reduced to just [music] two, Nvidia and
2920
02:24:17,840 --> 02:24:22,399
ATI.
2921
02:24:19,520 --> 02:24:24,720
In a final act of dominance, Nvidia
2922
02:24:22,399 --> 02:24:29,280
acquired the assets of its former idol
2923
02:24:24,720 --> 02:24:32,479
and arch rival 3dfx in 2000.
2924
02:24:29,280 --> 02:24:36,000
Jensen had cleared the board. He was the
2925
02:24:32,479 --> 02:24:38,640
undisputed king of gaming. But at the
2926
02:24:36,000 --> 02:24:40,399
very moment of his greatest triumph, he
2927
02:24:38,640 --> 02:24:43,120
began to look at the higherformance
2928
02:24:40,399 --> 02:24:45,520
computing market. He realized that the
2929
02:24:43,120 --> 02:24:48,399
GPU's massive parallel math could do
2930
02:24:45,520 --> 02:24:51,439
more than just draw pixels. It could
2931
02:24:48,399 --> 02:24:54,880
solve the world's most complex problems.
2932
02:24:51,439 --> 02:24:59,240
The seeds of CUDA and the $10 billion
2933
02:24:54,880 --> 02:24:59,240
gamble were being planted.
2934
02:25:04,560 --> 02:25:10,880
By 2006, Nvidia was the undisputed king
2935
02:25:08,240 --> 02:25:13,600
of [music] the gaming world. But Jensen
2936
02:25:10,880 --> 02:25:15,359
Huang was restless. He realized that the
2937
02:25:13,600 --> 02:25:17,200
same parallel [music] processing power
2938
02:25:15,359 --> 02:25:19,520
that rendered pixels for World of
2939
02:25:17,200 --> 02:25:21,359
Warcraft could be used to solve the
2940
02:25:19,520 --> 02:25:23,120
world's most complex mathematical
2941
02:25:21,359 --> 02:25:25,760
problems.
2942
02:25:23,120 --> 02:25:28,800
He launched [music] CUDA, compute
2943
02:25:25,760 --> 02:25:30,399
unified device architecture. It was a
2944
02:25:28,800 --> 02:25:32,960
declaration of war against the
2945
02:25:30,399 --> 02:25:35,840
CPUcentric [music] world.
2946
02:25:32,960 --> 02:25:38,399
The goal was simple yet insane.
2947
02:25:35,840 --> 02:25:41,520
Transform every [music] NVIDIA GPU into
2948
02:25:38,399 --> 02:25:43,040
a generalpurpose supercomput.
2949
02:25:41,520 --> 02:25:46,560
But this decision came [music] with a
2950
02:25:43,040 --> 02:25:49,600
staggering cost. Jensen mandated that
2951
02:25:46,560 --> 02:25:51,040
every single GPU Nvidia manufactured
2952
02:25:49,600 --> 02:25:54,080
from the high-end [music] workstation
2953
02:25:51,040 --> 02:25:55,840
cards to the cheapest laptop chips must
2954
02:25:54,080 --> 02:25:59,600
include the extra transistors [music]
2955
02:25:55,840 --> 02:26:03,200
and hardware logic to support CUDA.
2956
02:25:59,600 --> 02:26:05,760
Wall Street was horrified.
2957
02:26:03,200 --> 02:26:06,960
For nearly a decade, Nvidia spent
2958
02:26:05,760 --> 02:26:09,600
billions, [music]
2959
02:26:06,960 --> 02:26:12,560
estimated at over $10 billion in
2960
02:26:09,600 --> 02:26:15,760
cumulative R&D on a software platform
2961
02:26:12,560 --> 02:26:17,359
that almost no one was using. Profit
2962
02:26:15,760 --> 02:26:19,760
margins, [music] which once sat
2963
02:26:17,359 --> 02:26:22,319
comfortably high, were sacrificed at the
2964
02:26:19,760 --> 02:26:24,640
altar of this vision.
2965
02:26:22,319 --> 02:26:27,840
Analysts mocked the strategy, [music]
2966
02:26:24,640 --> 02:26:30,319
calling it the bridge to nowhere. During
2967
02:26:27,840 --> 02:26:32,800
the 2008 financial crisis, [music]
2968
02:26:30,319 --> 02:26:35,120
Nvidia's market cap plummeted and the
2969
02:26:32,800 --> 02:26:37,359
company was once again staring into the
2970
02:26:35,120 --> 02:26:39,040
abyss.
2971
02:26:37,359 --> 02:26:41,359
But Jensen wasn't just building
2972
02:26:39,040 --> 02:26:44,640
hardware. [music] He was building a
2973
02:26:41,359 --> 02:26:47,120
software moat. He sent Nvidia engineers
2974
02:26:44,640 --> 02:26:48,399
to universities around the world,
2975
02:26:47,120 --> 02:26:51,760
helping professors [music] teach
2976
02:26:48,399 --> 02:26:54,319
parallel programming using CUDA.
2977
02:26:51,760 --> 02:26:57,040
He was seeding [music] the ground. While
2978
02:26:54,319 --> 02:26:59,840
competitors like Intel and AMD focused
2979
02:26:57,040 --> 02:27:02,560
on making faster chips, Jensen [music]
2980
02:26:59,840 --> 02:27:04,880
was building an entire language.
2981
02:27:02,560 --> 02:27:07,439
By the time a developer learned CUDA,
2982
02:27:04,880 --> 02:27:08,960
they were locked in. Switching to a
2983
02:27:07,439 --> 02:27:11,200
competitor wouldn't [music] just mean
2984
02:27:08,960 --> 02:27:15,359
buying a new chip. It would mean
2985
02:27:11,200 --> 02:27:18,399
rewriting millions of lines of code.
2986
02:27:15,359 --> 02:27:21,040
Year after year, Jensen defended CUDA in
2987
02:27:18,399 --> 02:27:22,560
boardrooms and earning calls. He
2988
02:27:21,040 --> 02:27:25,200
practiced [music] what he calls
2989
02:27:22,560 --> 02:27:28,160
long-term commitment to a vision, even
2990
02:27:25,200 --> 02:27:30,000
when the data didn't yet support it. He
2991
02:27:28,160 --> 02:27:32,240
was waiting for a killer app for
2992
02:27:30,000 --> 02:27:34,240
accelerated computing.
2993
02:27:32,240 --> 02:27:35,920
He didn't know what it would be. [music]
2994
02:27:34,240 --> 02:27:38,560
But he knew that as data grew
2995
02:27:35,920 --> 02:27:41,520
exponentially, the serial processing of
2996
02:27:38,560 --> 02:27:44,000
the CPU would eventually [music] fail.
2997
02:27:41,520 --> 02:27:45,840
The silence of the Cuda winter was about
2998
02:27:44,000 --> 02:27:48,800
to be broken.
2999
02:27:45,840 --> 02:27:52,000
In a lab at the University of Toronto, a
3000
02:27:48,800 --> 02:27:54,479
PhD student named Alex Kepski was about
3001
02:27:52,000 --> 02:27:57,520
to feed a neural network called Alexet
3002
02:27:54,479 --> 02:27:59,920
into those Nvidia GPUs.
3003
02:27:57,520 --> 02:28:03,040
The big bang of artificial intelligence
3004
02:27:59,920 --> 02:28:05,439
was seconds away, and Jensen Huang was
3005
02:28:03,040 --> 02:28:09,880
the only person on Earth who had already
3006
02:28:05,439 --> 02:28:09,880
built the engine to power it.
3007
02:28:15,359 --> 02:28:19,280
The year was 2012.
3008
02:28:17,680 --> 02:28:22,240
While the world saw just another
3009
02:28:19,280 --> 02:28:24,399
academic competition, Jensen Huang saw
3010
02:28:22,240 --> 02:28:26,000
the spark that would ignite a global
3011
02:28:24,399 --> 02:28:29,280
revolution.
3012
02:28:26,000 --> 02:28:32,640
A neural network called AlexNet, powered
3013
02:28:29,280 --> 02:28:35,920
by NVIDIA GPUs, crushed the competition
3014
02:28:32,640 --> 02:28:38,479
in image recognition. It was the big
3015
02:28:35,920 --> 02:28:41,280
bang of deep learning.
3016
02:28:38,479 --> 02:28:44,399
Jensen didn't just celebrate, he pivoted
3017
02:28:41,280 --> 02:28:47,520
the entire company. He realized that the
3018
02:28:44,399 --> 02:28:49,600
$10 billion gamble on CUDA had finally
3019
02:28:47,520 --> 02:28:51,760
found its soul, artificial [music]
3020
02:28:49,600 --> 02:28:54,000
intelligence.
3021
02:28:51,760 --> 02:28:56,240
This pivot transformed Nvidia from a
3022
02:28:54,000 --> 02:28:58,399
graphics card company into the
3023
02:28:56,240 --> 02:29:01,439
foundational engine of the world's most
3024
02:28:58,399 --> 02:29:03,200
powerful data centers.
3025
02:29:01,439 --> 02:29:06,093
Jensen's vision was no longer about
3026
02:29:03,200 --> 02:29:07,920
drawing pixels. It was about generative
3027
02:29:06,093 --> 02:29:10,720
[music] AI.
3028
02:29:07,920 --> 02:29:12,240
By the time Chat GPT launched in late
3029
02:29:10,720 --> 02:29:13,920
2022,
3030
02:29:12,240 --> 02:29:16,399
Nvidia [music] didn't just have a head
3031
02:29:13,920 --> 02:29:19,720
start. They were the only ones at the
3032
02:29:16,399 --> 02:29:19,720
starting line.
3033
02:29:19,760 --> 02:29:23,840
Jensen acted with a speed that [music]
3034
02:29:21,439 --> 02:29:26,479
terrified his competitors. He didn't
3035
02:29:23,840 --> 02:29:29,280
just wait for orders. He re-engineered
3036
02:29:26,479 --> 02:29:32,240
Nvidia's entire road map.
3037
02:29:29,280 --> 02:29:34,960
In 2016, he personally delivered the
3038
02:29:32,240 --> 02:29:37,760
first Nvidia [music] DGX1,
3039
02:29:34,960 --> 02:29:40,560
the world's first AI supercomputer in a
3040
02:29:37,760 --> 02:29:43,840
box to a then small nonprofit called
3041
02:29:40,560 --> 02:29:48,200
Open AAI. He was very clear [music]
3042
02:29:43,840 --> 02:29:48,200
this will change the world.
3043
02:29:48,880 --> 02:29:52,240
Technically, this period was about
3044
02:29:50,640 --> 02:29:54,640
specialization.
3045
02:29:52,240 --> 02:29:57,184
Nvidia began adding tensor cores to its
3046
02:29:54,640 --> 02:29:57,200
chips. These weren't for graphics.
3047
02:29:57,184 --> 02:29:58,880
>> [music]
3048
02:29:57,200 --> 02:30:01,040
>> They were designed specifically for the
3049
02:29:58,880 --> 02:30:02,800
deep learning math that powers neural
3050
02:30:01,040 --> 02:30:04,399
networks.
3051
02:30:02,800 --> 02:30:07,040
Nvidia was no longer just making [music]
3052
02:30:04,399 --> 02:30:09,439
a faster graphics card. It was building
3053
02:30:07,040 --> 02:30:10,880
a specialized brain.
3054
02:30:09,439 --> 02:30:13,439
By 2017, [music]
3055
02:30:10,880 --> 02:30:15,760
the momentum was unstoppable.
3056
02:30:13,439 --> 02:30:17,920
Every major tech giant was building AI
3057
02:30:15,760 --> 02:30:19,600
labs and they all had one thing in
3058
02:30:17,920 --> 02:30:21,840
common. They were built on [music]
3059
02:30:19,600 --> 02:30:24,080
Nvidia's stack.
3060
02:30:21,840 --> 02:30:26,640
This was the era when the software mode
3061
02:30:24,080 --> 02:30:27,840
became a fortress. Thousands of
3062
02:30:26,640 --> 02:30:31,359
researchers [music] were now writing
3063
02:30:27,840 --> 02:30:33,200
their doctoral thesis on CUDA.
3064
02:30:31,359 --> 02:30:35,174
If a competitor wanted to challenge
3065
02:30:33,200 --> 02:30:37,600
Nvidia, they wouldn't just need a
3066
02:30:35,174 --> 02:30:40,240
[music] better chip. They would have to
3067
02:30:37,600 --> 02:30:43,680
convince the world's brightest minds to
3068
02:30:40,240 --> 02:30:46,399
forget everything they had learned.
3069
02:30:43,680 --> 02:30:49,120
But as the AI revolution took hold, an
3070
02:30:46,399 --> 02:30:51,920
unexpected shadow emerged. [music] A new
3071
02:30:49,120 --> 02:30:54,720
craze called Bitcoin and Ethereum began
3072
02:30:51,920 --> 02:30:57,840
to consume Nvidia's supply.
3073
02:30:54,720 --> 02:31:01,040
To the world, Nvidia looked invincible,
3074
02:30:57,840 --> 02:31:03,200
but internally Jensen [music] was wary.
3075
02:31:01,040 --> 02:31:04,720
Jensen knew that every bubble eventually
3076
02:31:03,200 --> 02:31:07,120
bursts.
3077
02:31:04,720 --> 02:31:09,439
This period of explosive accidental
3078
02:31:07,120 --> 02:31:12,560
growth from crypto miners was creating a
3079
02:31:09,439 --> 02:31:14,800
shadow over the company's true mission,
3080
02:31:12,560 --> 02:31:17,680
setting the stage for a highstakes legal
3081
02:31:14,800 --> 02:31:19,120
battle over corporate transparency and a
3082
02:31:17,680 --> 02:31:23,560
financial storm that would test [music]
3083
02:31:19,120 --> 02:31:23,560
the very foundations of his leadership.
3084
02:31:27,280 --> 02:31:32,319
In 2018, Nvidia was [music] riding a
3085
02:31:30,240 --> 02:31:35,520
wave that looked like a miracle, but
3086
02:31:32,319 --> 02:31:37,520
felt like a mirage. The explosion of
3087
02:31:35,520 --> 02:31:41,120
cryptocurrency mining had created an
3088
02:31:37,520 --> 02:31:43,760
insatiable hunger for GeForce cards.
3089
02:31:41,120 --> 02:31:46,080
To the outside world, Nvidia's revenue
3090
02:31:43,760 --> 02:31:48,479
was reaching historic [music] heights.
3091
02:31:46,080 --> 02:31:50,960
However, beneath the surface, a
3092
02:31:48,479 --> 02:31:52,880
dangerous ambiguity was growing. [music]
3093
02:31:50,960 --> 02:31:55,085
Jensen Huang insisted that the growth
3094
02:31:52,880 --> 02:31:56,800
was driven by a gaming renaissance,
3095
02:31:55,085 --> 02:32:00,960
[music] but the reality was more
3096
02:31:56,800 --> 02:32:02,560
volatile. The mirage evaporated in late
3097
02:32:00,960 --> 02:32:05,359
2018.
3098
02:32:02,560 --> 02:32:08,880
The crypto winter arrived and the demand
3099
02:32:05,359 --> 02:32:10,800
for mining chips vanished overnight.
3100
02:32:08,880 --> 02:32:12,770
Nvidia was left with a massive surplus
3101
02:32:10,800 --> 02:32:15,359
of inventory and the market's reaction
3102
02:32:12,770 --> 02:32:20,000
[music] was brutal. The company's stock
3103
02:32:15,359 --> 02:32:22,560
price plummeted by 28% in a single day.
3104
02:32:20,000 --> 02:32:24,000
The invincible architect of AI was
3105
02:32:22,560 --> 02:32:26,560
suddenly facing a crisis of [music]
3106
02:32:24,000 --> 02:32:28,319
credibility.
3107
02:32:26,560 --> 02:32:30,000
This financial collapse ignited a
3108
02:32:28,319 --> 02:32:31,920
highstakes legal battle that would
3109
02:32:30,000 --> 02:32:33,920
eventually reach the steps of the US
3110
02:32:31,920 --> 02:32:36,240
Supreme Court.
3111
02:32:33,920 --> 02:32:38,720
A group of institutional investors filed
3112
02:32:36,240 --> 02:32:40,479
a class action lawsuit alleging that
3113
02:32:38,720 --> 02:32:43,280
Jensen Hang had deliberately [music]
3114
02:32:40,479 --> 02:32:46,880
misled the market. The core of the case
3115
02:32:43,280 --> 02:32:50,800
rested on a single devastating word,
3116
02:32:46,880 --> 02:32:53,280
ci. The intent [music] to deceive.
3117
02:32:50,800 --> 02:32:54,800
The accusation was sharp. Investors
3118
02:32:53,280 --> 02:32:57,040
claimed [music] that internal Nvidia
3119
02:32:54,800 --> 02:32:59,760
reports clearly showed over a billion
3120
02:32:57,040 --> 02:33:01,280
dollars in revenue attributed to gamers
3121
02:32:59,760 --> 02:33:02,800
was actually coming from crypto [music]
3122
02:33:01,280 --> 02:33:05,040
miners.
3123
02:33:02,800 --> 02:33:07,280
Jensen fought back, defending his
3124
02:33:05,040 --> 02:33:09,359
intellectual honesty and arguing that
3125
02:33:07,280 --> 02:33:10,319
the expert opinions used against him
3126
02:33:09,359 --> 02:33:12,399
were nothing [music] more than
3127
02:33:10,319 --> 02:33:14,800
speculation.
3128
02:33:12,399 --> 02:33:17,120
This battle known as petition number
3129
02:33:14,800 --> 02:33:19,200
23-970
3130
02:33:17,120 --> 02:33:21,920
became a landmark moment for Silicon
3131
02:33:19,200 --> 02:33:23,920
Valley, questioning how much a CEO must
3132
02:33:21,920 --> 02:33:25,520
disclose when their technology
3133
02:33:23,920 --> 02:33:28,960
accidentally [music] conquers a market
3134
02:33:25,520 --> 02:33:31,359
they didn't intend to lead.
3135
02:33:28,960 --> 02:33:33,200
While lawyers argued in Washington,
3136
02:33:31,359 --> 02:33:35,956
Jensen was already looking past the
3137
02:33:33,200 --> 02:33:37,680
wreckage. He didn't let the legal storm
3138
02:33:35,956 --> 02:33:40,479
[music] or the inventory crisis slowed
3139
02:33:37,680 --> 02:33:42,506
down his ultimate plan. He doubled down
3140
02:33:40,479 --> 02:33:43,040
on the data center, acquiring Melanox
3141
02:33:42,506 --> 02:33:45,680
[music]
3142
02:33:43,040 --> 02:33:47,840
for $7 billion to control the highways
3143
02:33:45,680 --> 02:33:49,120
between his chips.
3144
02:33:47,840 --> 02:33:51,280
He was preparing [music] for a world
3145
02:33:49,120 --> 02:33:53,920
where AI wouldn't just be a research
3146
02:33:51,280 --> 02:33:56,080
project, but the operating system of the
3147
02:33:53,920 --> 02:33:58,800
entire planet.
3148
02:33:56,080 --> 02:34:01,280
The storm of 2018 had been a warning.
3149
02:33:58,800 --> 02:34:05,000
The era of generative AI was about to
3150
02:34:01,280 --> 02:34:05,000
provide [music] the answer.
3151
02:34:08,880 --> 02:34:13,680
By 2022,
3152
02:34:10,800 --> 02:34:15,920
the world had changed. The launch of
3153
02:34:13,680 --> 02:34:18,800
Chat GPT signaled the arrival of the
3154
02:34:15,920 --> 02:34:22,080
generative AI era, and Nvidia was the
3155
02:34:18,800 --> 02:34:24,160
only company prepared to power it.
3156
02:34:22,080 --> 02:34:27,120
But as Jensen Huang stood on the brink
3157
02:34:24,160 --> 02:34:30,319
of total market dominance, a new wall
3158
02:34:27,120 --> 02:34:32,800
was built, not by a competitor, but by
3159
02:34:30,319 --> 02:34:34,720
the [music] US government. Washington
3160
02:34:32,800 --> 02:34:38,000
imposed strict export controls on
3161
02:34:34,720 --> 02:34:40,960
high-end AI chips. For Nvidia, the
3162
02:34:38,000 --> 02:34:42,880
stakes [music] were astronomical.
3163
02:34:40,960 --> 02:34:44,880
According to the geographical revenue
3164
02:34:42,880 --> 02:34:48,319
data, [music] China accounted for
3165
02:34:44,880 --> 02:34:50,960
approximately 20% to 25% of the
3166
02:34:48,319 --> 02:34:52,800
company's total business.
3167
02:34:50,960 --> 02:34:55,200
Overnight, [music] Jensen had to
3168
02:34:52,800 --> 02:34:57,439
navigate a geopolitical minefield,
3169
02:34:55,200 --> 02:34:58,720
redesigning chips specifically to comply
3170
02:34:57,439 --> 02:35:00,640
with regulations [music]
3171
02:34:58,720 --> 02:35:03,920
while trying to keep his most important
3172
02:35:00,640 --> 02:35:06,160
market from slipping away.
3173
02:35:03,920 --> 02:35:08,160
Jensen's answer to the geopolitical and
3174
02:35:06,160 --> 02:35:12,080
technical pressure was the Blackwall
3175
02:35:08,160 --> 02:35:15,200
architecture. If the H100 was a spark,
3176
02:35:12,080 --> 02:35:18,137
Blackwell was a sun. Packing an
3177
02:35:15,200 --> 02:35:20,240
incredible 208 billion transistors,
3178
02:35:18,137 --> 02:35:21,920
[music] it delivered up to 30 times the
3179
02:35:20,240 --> 02:35:24,319
performance of its predecessor for
3180
02:35:21,920 --> 02:35:26,240
certain AI tasks.
3181
02:35:24,319 --> 02:35:29,040
But Blackwell represented a deeper
3182
02:35:26,240 --> 02:35:32,000
strategic shift. Nvidia was no longer
3183
02:35:29,040 --> 02:35:34,880
just [music] a chipmaker.
3184
02:35:32,000 --> 02:35:36,479
Jensen was now building entire AI
3185
02:35:34,880 --> 02:35:38,442
factories.
3186
02:35:36,479 --> 02:35:40,560
By integrating Melanox networking
3187
02:35:38,442 --> 02:35:42,640
[music] technology, he controlled the
3188
02:35:40,560 --> 02:35:44,240
highways that allowed thousands of chips
3189
02:35:42,640 --> 02:35:47,600
to talk to each other as [music] if they
3190
02:35:44,240 --> 02:35:49,920
were a single giant brain.
3191
02:35:47,600 --> 02:35:51,760
This system on a cluster approach meant
3192
02:35:49,920 --> 02:35:54,240
that even if a competitor produced a
3193
02:35:51,760 --> 02:35:55,920
faster individual chip, they couldn't
3194
02:35:54,240 --> 02:35:58,960
compete with the sheer efficiency of the
3195
02:35:55,920 --> 02:36:00,479
Nvidia ecosystem.
3196
02:35:58,960 --> 02:36:04,479
The financial results [music] were
3197
02:36:00,479 --> 02:36:07,263
staggering. By early 2024, Nvidia's data
3198
02:36:04,479 --> 02:36:10,640
center revenue had surged to over 47
3199
02:36:07,263 --> 02:36:13,760
[music] billion, a 217%
3200
02:36:10,640 --> 02:36:16,319
increase in a single year. The company
3201
02:36:13,760 --> 02:36:18,880
was [music] operating with 78.4%
3202
02:36:16,319 --> 02:36:21,359
gross margins, profit levels usually
3203
02:36:18,880 --> 02:36:23,840
reserved for software giants, not
3204
02:36:21,359 --> 02:36:27,600
hardware manufacturers.
3205
02:36:23,840 --> 02:36:30,880
On June 18th, 2024, Nvidia became the
3206
02:36:27,600 --> 02:36:33,760
most valuable company on the planet.
3207
02:36:30,880 --> 02:36:36,960
Yet, even as he stood at the summit,
3208
02:36:33,760 --> 02:36:38,160
Jensen refused to relax. He looked the
3209
02:36:36,960 --> 02:36:40,800
60-year history of [music]
3210
02:36:38,160 --> 02:36:44,240
semiconductors, the rise and fall of
3211
02:36:40,800 --> 02:36:46,399
Intel, the cycles of Samsung and TI, and
3212
02:36:44,240 --> 02:36:48,960
he knew that being on top was the most
3213
02:36:46,399 --> 02:36:52,160
dangerous place to be. His next
3214
02:36:48,960 --> 02:36:54,640
challenge wouldn't just be about chips.
3215
02:36:52,160 --> 02:36:57,640
It would be about giving AI a physical
3216
02:36:54,640 --> 02:36:57,640
body.
3217
02:37:01,439 --> 02:37:06,640
In 2024, Jensen Huang had already
3218
02:37:04,399 --> 02:37:08,960
conquered the digital world, but his
3219
02:37:06,640 --> 02:37:11,680
eyes were fixed on a new frontier, the
3220
02:37:08,960 --> 02:37:14,479
physical one. He declared that the next
3221
02:37:11,680 --> 02:37:16,319
wave of AI would be physical AI.
3222
02:37:14,479 --> 02:37:18,800
Intelligence that doesn't just process
3223
02:37:16,319 --> 02:37:21,200
text [music] or images, but understands
3224
02:37:18,800 --> 02:37:23,520
the laws of physics.
3225
02:37:21,200 --> 02:37:26,080
Everything that moves from autonomous
3226
02:37:23,520 --> 02:37:28,080
cars [music] to humanoid robots would
3227
02:37:26,080 --> 02:37:29,680
eventually be powered by an Nvidia
3228
02:37:28,080 --> 02:37:32,080
brain.
3229
02:37:29,680 --> 02:37:35,760
This identifies it as the third pillar
3230
02:37:32,080 --> 02:37:38,309
of Nvidia's future. To win this race,
3231
02:37:35,760 --> 02:37:40,880
Jensen isn't just building chips.
3232
02:37:38,309 --> 02:37:43,040
[music] He is building the omniverse.
3233
02:37:40,880 --> 02:37:45,120
This is a digital world where robots are
3234
02:37:43,040 --> 02:37:46,319
trained millions of times in a virtual
3235
02:37:45,120 --> 02:37:48,319
simulation [music]
3236
02:37:46,319 --> 02:37:50,160
before they ever step into a real
3237
02:37:48,319 --> 02:37:52,880
factory.
3238
02:37:50,160 --> 02:37:54,960
By the time a robot starts its job, it
3239
02:37:52,880 --> 02:37:56,479
has already lived a thousand lifetimes
3240
02:37:54,960 --> 02:37:59,120
of experience. [music]
3241
02:37:56,479 --> 02:38:01,920
Jensen's strategy is a total vertical
3242
02:37:59,120 --> 02:38:05,120
integration. He is transforming Nvidia
3243
02:38:01,920 --> 02:38:07,280
into a provider of AI factories.
3244
02:38:05,120 --> 02:38:09,760
He believes that in the future, every
3245
02:38:07,280 --> 02:38:12,000
company will have two factories, one
3246
02:38:09,760 --> 02:38:13,679
that produces physical goods and a
3247
02:38:12,000 --> 02:38:15,040
digital one that produces intelligence.
3248
02:38:13,679 --> 02:38:17,200
[music]
3249
02:38:15,040 --> 02:38:19,280
With the Melanox networking, high-speed
3250
02:38:17,200 --> 02:38:21,760
highways, and the CUDA software
3251
02:38:19,280 --> 02:38:23,504
fortress, Jensen has ensured that the
3252
02:38:21,760 --> 02:38:25,840
entire infrastructure of this new
3253
02:38:23,504 --> 02:38:29,200
[music] industrial revolution runs on
3254
02:38:25,840 --> 02:38:31,520
Nvidia. When asked about his legacy,
3255
02:38:29,200 --> 02:38:34,560
Jensen doesn't talk about stock prices
3256
02:38:31,520 --> 02:38:36,960
or trillions of dollars. He talks about
3257
02:38:34,560 --> 02:38:38,560
material sciences [music] and scientific
3258
02:38:36,960 --> 02:38:40,640
discovery.
3259
02:38:38,560 --> 02:38:42,880
He believes AI will give humans
3260
02:38:40,640 --> 02:38:45,439
superpowers, helping us solve [music]
3261
02:38:42,880 --> 02:38:47,680
climate change, cure diseases, and
3262
02:38:45,439 --> 02:38:50,240
handle the dangerous and mundane tasks
3263
02:38:47,680 --> 02:38:54,280
so we can focus on what truly makes us
3264
02:38:50,240 --> 02:38:54,280
human, curiosity.
3265
02:38:56,880 --> 02:39:01,200
By 2025,
3266
02:38:58,800 --> 02:39:02,960
the world had entered a state of compute
3267
02:39:01,200 --> 02:39:06,160
geopolitics.
3268
02:39:02,960 --> 02:39:08,720
Nvidia was no longer just a company. It
3269
02:39:06,160 --> 02:39:11,840
had become a strategic resource similar
3270
02:39:08,720 --> 02:39:15,439
to oil or grain. The launch of the
3271
02:39:11,840 --> 02:39:18,240
Blackwell B200 hadn't just met demand.
3272
02:39:15,439 --> 02:39:21,840
It had ignited a global scramble.
3273
02:39:18,240 --> 02:39:24,420
Nations like Japan, France, and the UAE
3274
02:39:21,840 --> 02:39:26,000
began building sovereign AI clouds.
3275
02:39:24,420 --> 02:39:27,680
[music] Realizing that depending on a
3276
02:39:26,000 --> 02:39:30,000
few Silicon Valley giants for
3277
02:39:27,680 --> 02:39:31,600
intelligence was a national security
3278
02:39:30,000 --> 02:39:34,960
risk.
3279
02:39:31,600 --> 02:39:38,720
But as 2025 progressed, a new whisper
3280
02:39:34,960 --> 02:39:41,680
began to haunt the industry. The wall.
3281
02:39:38,720 --> 02:39:44,479
For years, AI progress relied on scaling
3282
02:39:41,680 --> 02:39:46,800
laws. The idea that more data and more
3283
02:39:44,479 --> 02:39:50,720
GPUs would inevitably lead to more
3284
02:39:46,800 --> 02:39:53,439
intelligence. However, in 2026, the
3285
02:39:50,720 --> 02:39:56,000
returns are starting to diminish. Data
3286
02:39:53,439 --> 02:39:58,000
centers are becoming so massive, they
3287
02:39:56,000 --> 02:40:00,399
require their own dedicated nuclear
3288
02:39:58,000 --> 02:40:02,410
power plants. and the lowhanging fruit
3289
02:40:00,399 --> 02:40:03,920
of internet data has been exhausted.
3290
02:40:02,410 --> 02:40:06,160
[music]
3291
02:40:03,920 --> 02:40:08,800
Jensen's response to the wall is
3292
02:40:06,160 --> 02:40:10,880
typically defiant. He pivoted the
3293
02:40:08,800 --> 02:40:14,800
industry towards synthetic data and
3294
02:40:10,880 --> 02:40:16,820
reasoning models. In 2026, Nvidia's
3295
02:40:14,800 --> 02:40:21,040
focus has shifted from simply training
3296
02:40:16,820 --> 02:40:23,120
[music] AI to inference at scale. The
3297
02:40:21,040 --> 02:40:25,920
goal is no longer just to build a model
3298
02:40:23,120 --> 02:40:27,359
that knows everything, but to build a
3299
02:40:25,920 --> 02:40:29,920
system that thinks [music] through a
3300
02:40:27,359 --> 02:40:32,399
problem for days, if necessary, using
3301
02:40:29,920 --> 02:40:34,720
massive clusters of GPUs to reach a
3302
02:40:32,399 --> 02:40:38,000
breakthrough.
3303
02:40:34,720 --> 02:40:41,200
The competition in 2026 has never been
3304
02:40:38,000 --> 02:40:43,680
fiercer. Nvidia's biggest customers,
3305
02:40:41,200 --> 02:40:45,840
Amazon, Google, and Microsoft, have
3306
02:40:43,680 --> 02:40:47,760
become its most dangerous rivals,
3307
02:40:45,840 --> 02:40:52,240
pouring billions into their own custom
3308
02:40:47,760 --> 02:40:55,120
AI chips to escape the NVIDIA tax. Yet,
3309
02:40:52,240 --> 02:40:57,520
the software mode remains unreached.
3310
02:40:55,120 --> 02:40:59,840
While others build chips, Jensen is
3311
02:40:57,520 --> 02:41:02,160
building the entire ecosystem, the
3312
02:40:59,840 --> 02:41:03,840
networking, the libraries, and [music]
3313
02:41:02,160 --> 02:41:06,720
the pre-trained models that make a
3314
02:41:03,840 --> 02:41:10,000
competitor's hardware feel like a relic
3315
02:41:06,720 --> 02:41:10,531
before it even leaves the factory.
3316
02:41:10,000 --> 02:41:10,640
In this
3317
02:41:10,531 --> 02:41:13,040
>> [music]
3318
02:41:10,640 --> 02:41:15,920
>> era, Jensen Hang has become one of the
3319
02:41:13,040 --> 02:41:17,840
world's most influential diplomat. He
3320
02:41:15,920 --> 02:41:20,240
navigates a world where the power grid
3321
02:41:17,840 --> 02:41:22,000
is the new bottleneck and where a single
3322
02:41:20,240 --> 02:41:24,960
shipment of chips can determine the
3323
02:41:22,000 --> 02:41:27,760
economic future of a country.
3324
02:41:24,960 --> 02:41:30,960
The trillion dollar question of 2026 is
3325
02:41:27,760 --> 02:41:33,040
no longer if AI will change the world,
3326
02:41:30,960 --> 02:41:36,280
but who will own the infrastructure of
3327
02:41:33,040 --> 02:41:36,280
that change.
3328
02:41:39,680 --> 02:41:44,160
The story of Nvidia is often told as a
3329
02:41:42,080 --> 02:41:47,040
series of lucky breaks or inevitable
3330
02:41:44,160 --> 02:41:49,439
triumphs. But as we look at the empire
3331
02:41:47,040 --> 02:41:52,160
Jensen [music] Huang has built, the
3332
02:41:49,439 --> 02:41:54,479
reality is far more deliberate and far
3333
02:41:52,160 --> 02:41:56,160
more precarious.
3334
02:41:54,479 --> 02:41:58,000
In 2026, [music]
3335
02:41:56,160 --> 02:41:59,920
the company stands at the center of the
3336
02:41:58,000 --> 02:42:01,439
greatest industrial shift in human
3337
02:41:59,920 --> 02:42:04,319
history.
3338
02:42:01,439 --> 02:42:06,960
Yet for Jensen, the valuation of three,
3339
02:42:04,319 --> 02:42:09,600
four, or 5 trillion is a lagging
3340
02:42:06,960 --> 02:42:11,520
indicator. The true metric is [music]
3341
02:42:09,600 --> 02:42:13,439
the oxygen.
3342
02:42:11,520 --> 02:42:15,359
Throughout his journey, from the dish
3343
02:42:13,439 --> 02:42:17,997
pits of Denny's to the halls of the
3344
02:42:15,359 --> 02:42:19,680
Supreme Court, Jensen has maintained a
3345
02:42:17,997 --> 02:42:21,359
[music] philosophy of intellectual
3346
02:42:19,680 --> 02:42:23,920
honesty.
3347
02:42:21,359 --> 02:42:26,720
He admits when the technology is wrong.
3348
02:42:23,920 --> 02:42:28,720
He pivots when the market shifts. And he
3349
02:42:26,720 --> 02:42:31,200
invests billions when the world calls
3350
02:42:28,720 --> 02:42:32,960
him a fall. He [music] has turned a
3351
02:42:31,200 --> 02:42:35,600
semiconductor company into a
3352
02:42:32,960 --> 02:42:38,720
geopolitical superpower, a software
3353
02:42:35,600 --> 02:42:41,920
fortress, and the primary architect of a
3354
02:42:38,720 --> 02:42:44,560
new form of life. [music] Critics ask if
3355
02:42:41,920 --> 02:42:46,399
Nvidia is a bubble waiting to burst, or
3356
02:42:44,560 --> 02:42:49,200
if the scaling laws of AI will
3357
02:42:46,399 --> 02:42:50,720
eventually hit a dead end. But Jensen
3358
02:42:49,200 --> 02:42:53,840
doesn't operate on [music] the timeline
3359
02:42:50,720 --> 02:42:56,880
of a stock market cycle. He operates on
3360
02:42:53,840 --> 02:42:59,600
the timeline of human evolution.
3361
02:42:56,880 --> 02:43:01,120
He isn't just selling chips. He is
3362
02:42:59,600 --> 02:43:03,760
selling the marginal cost of
3363
02:43:01,120 --> 02:43:06,479
intelligence, making the most valuable
3364
02:43:03,760 --> 02:43:08,433
resource in the universe so abundant
3365
02:43:06,479 --> 02:43:09,120
that it changes the very definition
3366
02:43:08,433 --> 02:43:11,920
[music]
3367
02:43:09,120 --> 02:43:14,080
of what is possible.
3368
02:43:11,920 --> 02:43:16,000
Jensen often says that he wakes up every
3369
02:43:14,080 --> 02:43:17,520
morning with the same feeling he had in
3370
02:43:16,000 --> 02:43:19,120
1993.
3371
02:43:17,520 --> 02:43:21,280
the feeling that [music] the company is
3372
02:43:19,120 --> 02:43:23,680
going out of business.
3373
02:43:21,280 --> 02:43:25,439
It is this productive paranoia that
3374
02:43:23,680 --> 02:43:28,800
prevents the cyclical trap [music] that
3375
02:43:25,439 --> 02:43:31,439
claim the giants of the past. He doesn't
3376
02:43:28,800 --> 02:43:32,960
want to be the king of a legacy. He
3377
02:43:31,439 --> 02:43:35,840
wants to be the architect of [music] a
3378
02:43:32,960 --> 02:43:38,720
future that hasn't even been imagined
3379
02:43:35,840 --> 02:43:42,160
yet.
3380
02:43:38,720 --> 02:43:44,720
Run, don't walk. Either you are running
3381
02:43:42,160 --> 02:43:47,359
for food or you are running from being
3382
02:43:44,720 --> 02:43:53,560
food. In the era of the digital [music]
3383
02:43:47,359 --> 02:43:53,560
brain, the race has only just begun.
3384
02:45:19,840 --> 02:45:24,720
At the edge of the world, in a country
3385
02:45:22,080 --> 02:45:27,200
with more sheep than people, one of the
3386
02:45:24,720 --> 02:45:30,399
most powerful men in Silicon Valley
3387
02:45:27,200 --> 02:45:34,479
built an escape hatch. Not a vacation
3388
02:45:30,399 --> 02:45:37,279
home, not a tax shelter, a contingency
3389
02:45:34,479 --> 02:45:40,880
plan.
3390
02:45:37,279 --> 02:45:43,120
In 2011, a billionaire quietly secured
3391
02:45:40,880 --> 02:45:44,560
citizenship in New Zealand after
3392
02:45:43,120 --> 02:45:47,520
spending just [music] days in the
3393
02:45:44,560 --> 02:45:50,240
country. A legal backdoor, a
3394
02:45:47,520 --> 02:45:52,160
geopolitical lifeboat
3395
02:45:50,240 --> 02:45:55,120
deep in the rugged terrain of New
3396
02:45:52,160 --> 02:45:59,120
Zealand's South Island, Peter Teal owns
3397
02:45:55,120 --> 02:46:02,720
a vast private estate, remote, secluded,
3398
02:45:59,120 --> 02:46:04,630
and far from the centers of power.
3399
02:46:02,720 --> 02:46:07,520
While most billionaires buy yachts
3400
02:46:04,630 --> 02:46:10,479
[music] or private islands feel secured
3401
02:46:07,520 --> 02:46:12,319
something more strategic, New Zealand
3402
02:46:10,479 --> 02:46:14,479
citizenship
3403
02:46:12,319 --> 02:46:17,920
and a vast estate in one of the [music]
3404
02:46:14,479 --> 02:46:20,240
most remote democracies on earth. The
3405
02:46:17,920 --> 02:46:22,319
purchase price for this geopolitical
3406
02:46:20,240 --> 02:46:25,760
insurance policy.
3407
02:46:22,319 --> 02:46:28,479
In 2011, Theel obtained New Zealand
3408
02:46:25,760 --> 02:46:30,800
citizenship after spending just 12 days
3409
02:46:28,479 --> 02:46:33,840
in the country over the previous 2
3410
02:46:30,800 --> 02:46:37,479
years. a process that normally requires
3411
02:46:33,840 --> 02:46:37,479
years of residency.
3412
02:46:37,600 --> 02:46:42,800
The investment that secured this
3413
02:46:39,439 --> 02:46:44,960
exceptional pathway, approximately $7
3414
02:46:42,800 --> 02:46:47,840
million in local assets [music] and
3415
02:46:44,960 --> 02:46:51,040
business investments.
3416
02:46:47,840 --> 02:46:54,880
The centerpiece, a 477
3417
02:46:51,040 --> 02:46:59,120
acre estate near Lake Wanaka, purchased
3418
02:46:54,880 --> 02:47:01,760
for 13.5 million New Zealand, about $10
3419
02:46:59,120 --> 02:47:04,160
million.
3420
02:47:01,760 --> 02:47:07,680
When New Zealand media exposed the deal
3421
02:47:04,160 --> 02:47:08,800
in 2017, it sparked [music] a national
3422
02:47:07,680 --> 02:47:10,479
scandal.
3423
02:47:08,800 --> 02:47:12,080
>> Hi Benedict, nice to talk to you again.
3424
02:47:10,479 --> 02:47:14,000
So when we last spoke, you told us that
3425
02:47:12,080 --> 02:47:16,640
Peter Teal was granted citizenship after
3426
02:47:14,000 --> 02:47:19,760
having only visited New Zealand four
3427
02:47:16,640 --> 02:47:22,000
times for an unknown number of days
3428
02:47:19,760 --> 02:47:24,000
because the documents had that
3429
02:47:22,000 --> 02:47:26,319
information redacted. Right.
3430
02:47:24,000 --> 02:47:29,040
>> Politicians called it citizenship for
3431
02:47:26,319 --> 02:47:31,040
sale. Opposition leaders demanded
3432
02:47:29,040 --> 02:47:33,279
investigations,
3433
02:47:31,040 --> 02:47:36,479
but Theel had already achieved his
3434
02:47:33,279 --> 02:47:38,240
objective, a legal escape hatch in the
3435
02:47:36,479 --> 02:47:39,920
world's most politically stable
3436
02:47:38,240 --> 02:47:42,800
democracy, [music]
3437
02:47:39,920 --> 02:47:46,560
a geopolitical insurance policy that
3438
02:47:42,800 --> 02:47:48,560
money can buy.
3439
02:47:46,560 --> 02:47:50,800
Why would a man who helped [music] build
3440
02:47:48,560 --> 02:47:53,840
the digital future prepare for the
3441
02:47:50,800 --> 02:47:56,880
collapse of the physical one? What does
3442
02:47:53,840 --> 02:48:00,720
he [music] see that others don't? Yes,
3443
02:47:56,880 --> 02:48:03,120
it's the uh 1 Thessalonians 5:3, the uh
3444
02:48:00,720 --> 02:48:06,640
the the slogan of the Antichrist is
3445
02:48:03,120 --> 02:48:08,640
peace and safety. And so, which is
3446
02:48:06,640 --> 02:48:10,479
nothing wrong with peace and safety, but
3447
02:48:08,640 --> 02:48:12,356
uh you have to sort of imagine that it
3448
02:48:10,479 --> 02:48:13,920
resonates very differently in a world
3449
02:48:12,356 --> 02:48:15,359
[music] where the stakes are so
3450
02:48:13,920 --> 02:48:16,720
absolute, where the stakes are so
3451
02:48:15,359 --> 02:48:21,120
extreme, where the you know the
3452
02:48:16,720 --> 02:48:23,359
alternative to peace and safety is, you
3453
02:48:21,120 --> 02:48:25,120
know, Armageddon and the destruction of
3454
02:48:23,359 --> 02:48:27,120
all things.
3455
02:48:25,120 --> 02:48:30,319
He is one of the most polarizing [music]
3456
02:48:27,120 --> 02:48:32,720
figures in Silicon Valley. To some, a
3457
02:48:30,319 --> 02:48:36,240
visionary genius who saw the future
3458
02:48:32,720 --> 02:48:38,240
early. To others, the shadow financier
3459
02:48:36,240 --> 02:48:40,080
of movements and candidates who
3460
02:48:38,240 --> 02:48:41,680
challenged [music] liberal democratic
3461
02:48:40,080 --> 02:48:45,600
norms.
3462
02:48:41,680 --> 02:48:48,080
This is not fear. This is strategy.
3463
02:48:45,600 --> 02:48:51,840
For decades, Peter Theel has made the
3464
02:48:48,080 --> 02:48:54,800
same bet over and over again. Bet
3465
02:48:51,840 --> 02:48:55,600
against consensus. bet against the
3466
02:48:54,800 --> 02:48:59,439
crowd, [music]
3467
02:48:55,600 --> 02:49:02,000
bet against the system itself.
3468
02:48:59,439 --> 02:49:04,560
To understand why he built a fortress at
3469
02:49:02,000 --> 02:49:07,920
the end of the earth, we have to go back
3470
02:49:04,560 --> 02:49:09,997
to a childhood of constant displacement.
3471
02:49:07,920 --> 02:49:12,399
To a chessboard where consensus meant
3472
02:49:09,997 --> 02:49:15,120
[music] nothing, to a company that tried
3473
02:49:12,399 --> 02:49:19,000
to replace money and another that
3474
02:49:15,120 --> 02:49:19,000
learned to see [music] everything.
3475
02:49:19,200 --> 02:49:23,840
But the estate is more than a [music]
3476
02:49:21,200 --> 02:49:27,840
luxury retreat. It is a fortress
3477
02:49:23,840 --> 02:49:30,560
designed for civilizational uncertainty.
3478
02:49:27,840 --> 02:49:33,120
Off-grid power systems, advanced
3479
02:49:30,560 --> 02:49:34,800
security infrastructure, multiple
3480
02:49:33,120 --> 02:49:38,080
evacuation routes [music] through the
3481
02:49:34,800 --> 02:49:40,319
mountains. Not built for comfort, built
3482
02:49:38,080 --> 02:49:42,960
for continuity.
3483
02:49:40,319 --> 02:49:44,960
While the world debates progress, Peter
3484
02:49:42,960 --> 02:49:46,640
Theel is preparing for a different
3485
02:49:44,960 --> 02:49:49,359
possibility.
3486
02:49:46,640 --> 02:49:52,840
Not how to build the future, how to
3487
02:49:49,359 --> 02:49:52,840
survive it.
3488
02:49:54,160 --> 02:50:00,000
The architect of dissident
3489
02:49:57,760 --> 02:50:03,520
total estimated value of [music] Theo's
3490
02:50:00,000 --> 02:50:05,279
contingency infrastructure 20 to $30
3491
02:50:03,520 --> 02:50:08,640
million.
3492
02:50:05,279 --> 02:50:10,880
Not for lifestyle, not for prestige, but
3493
02:50:08,640 --> 02:50:13,200
for the day the system he helped build
3494
02:50:10,880 --> 02:50:14,843
no longer holds.
3495
02:50:13,200 --> 02:50:17,760
He didn't build this because he panics
3496
02:50:14,843 --> 02:50:19,840
[music] easily. He built it because he
3497
02:50:17,760 --> 02:50:22,800
has always believed that the crowd is
3498
02:50:19,840 --> 02:50:26,000
wrong and the future belongs to those
3499
02:50:22,800 --> 02:50:29,120
willing to stand apart from it. Every
3500
02:50:26,000 --> 02:50:31,359
fortress begins as an idea and Peter
3501
02:50:29,120 --> 02:50:36,120
Theel has been building intellectual
3502
02:50:31,359 --> 02:50:36,120
fortresses since he was a child.
3503
02:50:40,160 --> 02:50:45,439
Before he was a billionaire, before he
3504
02:50:42,640 --> 02:50:46,960
funded political outsiders, before he
3505
02:50:45,439 --> 02:50:50,000
built machines that could see
3506
02:50:46,960 --> 02:50:51,920
everything, he was a boy who never
3507
02:50:50,000 --> 02:50:54,720
stayed in one place long enough to
3508
02:50:51,920 --> 02:50:56,640
believe the world made sense.
3509
02:50:54,720 --> 02:51:00,080
So, he searched for a world where the
3510
02:50:56,640 --> 02:51:01,920
rules didn't change. He found it on a
3511
02:51:00,080 --> 02:51:04,319
chessboard.
3512
02:51:01,920 --> 02:51:06,319
To understand Peter Theel, you must
3513
02:51:04,319 --> 02:51:08,960
understand what it means to be a
3514
02:51:06,319 --> 02:51:11,760
permanent outsider.
3515
02:51:08,960 --> 02:51:14,160
Born in Frankfurt, West Germany, Peter
3516
02:51:11,760 --> 02:51:16,413
Theel spent part of his early childhood
3517
02:51:14,160 --> 02:51:17,359
in southwest Africa, now Namibia,
3518
02:51:16,413 --> 02:51:19,439
[music]
3519
02:51:17,359 --> 02:51:21,653
before growing up mainly in the United
3520
02:51:19,439 --> 02:51:23,439
States between Ohio and California.
3521
02:51:21,653 --> 02:51:25,760
[music]
3522
02:51:23,439 --> 02:51:29,040
Before he was a teenager, he had already
3523
02:51:25,760 --> 02:51:31,359
experienced life on multiple continents,
3524
02:51:29,040 --> 02:51:33,359
never staying long enough to feel fully
3525
02:51:31,359 --> 02:51:36,160
at home.
3526
02:51:33,359 --> 02:51:39,920
He didn't have a hometown. He didn't
3527
02:51:36,160 --> 02:51:42,319
have a tribe. He only had his own mind.
3528
02:51:39,920 --> 02:51:45,680
And in that isolation, he found a
3529
02:51:42,319 --> 02:51:48,680
language that didn't require a passport.
3530
02:51:45,680 --> 02:51:48,680
Chess.
3531
02:51:49,200 --> 02:51:52,640
For a child who changed continents
3532
02:51:51,129 --> 02:51:54,640
[music] before he could even make
3533
02:51:52,640 --> 02:51:58,640
friends, the outside world was
3534
02:51:54,640 --> 02:52:01,040
unpredictable noise. But the board, the
3535
02:51:58,640 --> 02:52:02,720
board was the only place where the rules
3536
02:52:01,040 --> 02:52:05,040
didn't change [music] depending on the
3537
02:52:02,720 --> 02:52:07,920
country.
3538
02:52:05,040 --> 02:52:10,319
His
3539
02:52:07,920 --> 02:52:12,800
father, an engineer trained in a culture
3540
02:52:10,319 --> 02:52:15,120
of precision and systems thinking,
3541
02:52:12,800 --> 02:52:18,640
passed on a belief that reality could be
3542
02:52:15,120 --> 02:52:21,120
understood and optimized.
3543
02:52:18,640 --> 02:52:24,160
While other children sought to fit in,
3544
02:52:21,120 --> 02:52:26,960
Peter sought the edge. He learned that
3545
02:52:24,160 --> 02:52:28,640
the consensus of the crowd is usually a
3546
02:52:26,960 --> 02:52:31,200
distraction.
3547
02:52:28,640 --> 02:52:33,840
If everyone is running toward the ball,
3548
02:52:31,200 --> 02:52:35,520
you run toward where the ball is going
3549
02:52:33,840 --> 02:52:37,680
to be.
3550
02:52:35,520 --> 02:52:39,520
Chess is the ultimate antidote to
3551
02:52:37,680 --> 02:52:41,439
consensus.
3552
02:52:39,520 --> 02:52:44,160
In a crowd, you can hide behind a
3553
02:52:41,439 --> 02:52:46,960
popular opinion. In chess, you are
3554
02:52:44,160 --> 02:52:49,040
either [music] right or you are dead.
3555
02:52:46,960 --> 02:52:52,160
There is no middle ground. There is no
3556
02:52:49,040 --> 02:52:54,160
social construction of the board.
3557
02:52:52,160 --> 02:52:56,240
He became a serious tournament chess
3558
02:52:54,160 --> 02:52:59,279
player [music] drawn to a world where
3559
02:52:56,240 --> 02:53:03,359
rules were fixed, outcomes were earned,
3560
02:52:59,279 --> 02:53:07,680
and consensus [music] meant nothing.
3561
02:53:03,359 --> 02:53:10,000
Mid1 1980s Stanford University.
3562
02:53:07,680 --> 02:53:12,319
To the world this was the peak of
3563
02:53:10,000 --> 02:53:16,640
American meritocracy.
3564
02:53:12,319 --> 02:53:18,640
To Theel it was a factory of conformity.
3565
02:53:16,640 --> 02:53:21,040
While his classmates were debating how
3566
02:53:18,640 --> 02:53:23,279
to change the world through activism,
3567
02:53:21,040 --> 02:53:25,920
Theel was wondering why they all sounded
3568
02:53:23,279 --> 02:53:28,000
exactly the same. He saw the
3569
02:53:25,920 --> 02:53:30,160
multiculturalism movement not as
3570
02:53:28,000 --> 02:53:32,319
progress but as a new form of
3571
02:53:30,160 --> 02:53:34,960
fundamentalism.
3572
02:53:32,319 --> 02:53:38,000
Stanford in the late 1980s was ground
3573
02:53:34,960 --> 02:53:40,800
zero for America's culture wars, battles
3574
02:53:38,000 --> 02:53:43,840
over multiculturalism, speech, and the
3575
02:53:40,800 --> 02:53:46,160
purpose of higher education.
3576
02:53:43,840 --> 02:53:49,520
Field believed the university was
3577
02:53:46,160 --> 02:53:51,279
drifting toward ideological conformity,
3578
02:53:49,520 --> 02:53:54,720
that certain views were becoming
3579
02:53:51,279 --> 02:53:57,359
socially, if not formally, offlimits.
3580
02:53:54,720 --> 02:54:00,720
Here his investment methodology was
3581
02:53:57,359 --> 02:54:04,640
born. Identify what the crowd considers
3582
02:54:00,720 --> 02:54:08,080
sacred and question it.
3583
02:54:04,640 --> 02:54:11,040
If everyone says identity diversity is
3584
02:54:08,080 --> 02:54:14,000
the most important thing, you argue that
3585
02:54:11,040 --> 02:54:16,080
intellectual diversity is the only thing
3586
02:54:14,000 --> 02:54:18,319
that matters.
3587
02:54:16,080 --> 02:54:21,520
He wasn't looking for friends. He was
3588
02:54:18,319 --> 02:54:24,399
looking to recruit others who like him
3589
02:54:21,520 --> 02:54:27,680
did not fear being hated.
3590
02:54:24,399 --> 02:54:30,000
He founded the Stanford Review. The
3591
02:54:27,680 --> 02:54:33,279
paper quickly became one of the most
3592
02:54:30,000 --> 02:54:35,535
controversial publications on campus,
3593
02:54:33,279 --> 02:54:36,080
attacking what field saw as intellectual
3594
02:54:35,535 --> 02:54:39,920
[music]
3595
02:54:36,080 --> 02:54:42,080
monoculture and political group think.
3596
02:54:39,920 --> 02:54:44,479
He saw that the smartest people in the
3597
02:54:42,080 --> 02:54:47,680
country were all competing for the same
3598
02:54:44,479 --> 02:54:49,439
narrow prizes, thinking the same narrow
3599
02:54:47,680 --> 02:54:52,800
thoughts.
3600
02:54:49,439 --> 02:54:54,880
He did what every top student does. He
3601
02:54:52,800 --> 02:54:57,359
followed the track.
3602
02:54:54,880 --> 02:55:00,319
After Stanford Law, he secured a
3603
02:54:57,359 --> 02:55:02,720
prestigious federal appalate clerkship,
3604
02:55:00,319 --> 02:55:05,120
the kind of credential that opens every
3605
02:55:02,720 --> 02:55:07,359
elite door in America.
3606
02:55:05,120 --> 02:55:09,600
After his clerkship, he joined Sullivan
3607
02:55:07,359 --> 02:55:12,800
and Cromwell in [music] New York, one of
3608
02:55:09,600 --> 02:55:15,520
the most elite law firms in the world.
3609
02:55:12,800 --> 02:55:17,920
On paper, he had reached the summit.
3610
02:55:15,520 --> 02:55:20,479
Wall Street was his great negative
3611
02:55:17,920 --> 02:55:22,696
epiphany.
3612
02:55:20,479 --> 02:55:24,640
But from his perspective, the brightest
3613
02:55:22,696 --> 02:55:26,960
[music] graduates in America were locked
3614
02:55:24,640 --> 02:55:29,920
in brutal competition for careers they
3615
02:55:26,960 --> 02:55:32,319
didn't even seem to want.
3616
02:55:29,920 --> 02:55:35,040
It looked like Renee Gerard's theory
3617
02:55:32,319 --> 02:55:37,439
made flesh, a system where everyone
3618
02:55:35,040 --> 02:55:40,479
desired the same prize simply because
3619
02:55:37,439 --> 02:55:43,279
everyone else did. Wall Street looked at
3620
02:55:40,479 --> 02:55:46,319
Theo like a laboratory of mimemetic
3621
02:55:43,279 --> 02:55:48,880
rivalry. He realized that if he won that
3622
02:55:46,319 --> 02:55:52,160
race, his prize would be becoming the
3623
02:55:48,880 --> 02:55:55,439
man in the office next door. A copy of a
3624
02:55:52,160 --> 02:55:58,240
copy. The day he lost the opportunity to
3625
02:55:55,439 --> 02:56:01,760
clerk for the US Supreme Court wasn't a
3626
02:55:58,240 --> 02:56:05,040
defeat. It was his liberation.
3627
02:56:01,760 --> 02:56:07,680
He lasted less than a year. But Theo's
3628
02:56:05,040 --> 02:56:10,479
first venture after leaving law was a
3629
02:56:07,680 --> 02:56:12,399
humbling lesson in failure. A lesson
3630
02:56:10,479 --> 02:56:15,359
that would shape everything that came
3631
02:56:12,399 --> 02:56:18,160
after.
3632
02:56:15,359 --> 02:56:21,359
In 1996, he launched Theel [music]
3633
02:56:18,160 --> 02:56:24,319
Capital Management,
3634
02:56:21,359 --> 02:56:27,520
a hedge fund focused on currency trading
3635
02:56:24,319 --> 02:56:30,319
and macroeconomic derivatives.
3636
02:56:27,520 --> 02:56:32,319
The strategy was to make big directional
3637
02:56:30,319 --> 02:56:34,800
bets on [music] interest rates,
3638
02:56:32,319 --> 02:56:38,000
inflation expectations, and foreign
3639
02:56:34,800 --> 02:56:41,840
exchange movements. Initial capital
3640
02:56:38,000 --> 02:56:43,920
raised $1 million mostly from Stanford
3641
02:56:41,840 --> 02:56:48,680
connections who believed in the chess
3642
02:56:43,920 --> 02:56:48,680
prodigy turned lawyer turned financia.
3643
02:56:49,520 --> 02:56:54,880
The result was spectacular failure.
3644
02:56:52,640 --> 02:56:58,160
Within the first year, the fund had lost
3645
02:56:54,880 --> 02:57:00,947
significant capital. Industry estimates
3646
02:56:58,160 --> 02:57:03,760
suggest losses between 30 and 40%
3647
02:57:00,947 --> 02:57:06,800
[music] of the initial investment pool.
3648
02:57:03,760 --> 02:57:10,000
Investors fled. Some demanded their
3649
02:57:06,800 --> 02:57:12,399
remaining money back immediately.
3650
02:57:10,000 --> 02:57:14,240
The reputation among finance
3651
02:57:12,399 --> 02:57:15,840
professionals, the people he [music] had
3652
02:57:14,240 --> 02:57:19,520
walked away from at Sullivan and
3653
02:57:15,840 --> 02:57:22,800
Cromwell, took a serious hit.
3654
02:57:19,520 --> 02:57:26,080
He was no longer the Stanford genius. He
3655
02:57:22,800 --> 02:57:28,560
was just another failed trader.
3656
02:57:26,080 --> 02:57:31,040
But this failure taught him the most
3657
02:57:28,560 --> 02:57:34,080
important lesson of his career.
3658
02:57:31,040 --> 02:57:36,479
Competition is for losers.
3659
02:57:34,080 --> 02:57:38,938
Do not compete in crowded markets where
3660
02:57:36,479 --> 02:57:40,880
everyone is making the same trades with
3661
02:57:38,938 --> 02:57:42,880
[music] the same information and the
3662
02:57:40,880 --> 02:57:45,279
same tools.
3663
02:57:42,880 --> 02:57:48,107
Wall Street was full of extremely smart
3664
02:57:45,279 --> 02:57:50,160
people doing the same macro trades,
3665
02:57:48,107 --> 02:57:52,640
[music] reading the same economic
3666
02:57:50,160 --> 02:57:55,760
reports, betting on the same currency
3667
02:57:52,640 --> 02:57:58,240
movements. It was a zero someum game
3668
02:57:55,760 --> 02:58:01,040
played by thousands of nearly identical
3669
02:57:58,240 --> 02:58:03,279
players.
3670
02:58:01,040 --> 02:58:06,319
He needed to find a space where the
3671
02:58:03,279 --> 02:58:08,720
rules were still being written, where
3672
02:58:06,319 --> 02:58:11,760
being first mattered more than being
3673
02:58:08,720 --> 02:58:13,920
best, where a [music] monopoly position
3674
02:58:11,760 --> 02:58:16,240
was still available.
3675
02:58:13,920 --> 02:58:18,640
He needed technology.
3676
02:58:16,240 --> 02:58:22,399
And from the ashes of the capital
3677
02:58:18,640 --> 02:58:24,960
management, a new philosophy was born.
3678
02:58:22,399 --> 02:58:28,240
If you want to create lasting value, you
3679
02:58:24,960 --> 02:58:31,040
have to build a monopoly. This became
3680
02:58:28,240 --> 02:58:34,760
his investing mantra and it would make
3681
02:58:31,040 --> 02:58:34,760
him billions.
3682
02:58:36,319 --> 02:58:40,720
The [music] walked away from the firm
3683
02:58:37,920 --> 02:58:43,920
and went back to California not to start
3684
02:58:40,720 --> 02:58:47,120
a tech empire but to try trading then to
3685
02:58:43,920 --> 02:58:49,439
launch a hedge fund. It failed. The
3686
02:58:47,120 --> 02:58:52,000
system he had rejected did not welcome
3687
02:58:49,439 --> 02:58:54,000
him back as a prodigy. It treated him
3688
02:58:52,000 --> 02:58:56,000
like a nobody.
3689
02:58:54,000 --> 02:58:59,920
That failure would become the last
3690
02:58:56,000 --> 02:59:02,319
lesson before his real beginning. But he
3691
02:58:59,920 --> 02:59:04,960
learned something. If you play the
3692
02:59:02,319 --> 02:59:06,960
system game as everyone else, you've
3693
02:59:04,960 --> 02:59:08,720
already lost.
3694
02:59:06,960 --> 02:59:11,600
The chess master was [music] done with
3695
02:59:08,720 --> 02:59:14,600
the board. He was ready to build his
3696
02:59:11,600 --> 02:59:14,600
own.
3697
02:59:19,600 --> 02:59:23,520
So this is an ATM. What we're going to
3698
02:59:21,520 --> 02:59:25,359
do is transform the traditional banking
3699
02:59:23,520 --> 02:59:28,880
industry.
3700
02:59:25,359 --> 02:59:30,479
>> I do not fit the picture of a banker.
3701
02:59:28,880 --> 02:59:32,560
>> X.com. This is Julie.
3702
02:59:30,479 --> 02:59:35,120
>> Raising $50 million is a matter of
3703
02:59:32,560 --> 02:59:37,359
making a series of phone calls and the
3704
02:59:35,120 --> 02:59:39,279
money is there.
3705
02:59:37,359 --> 02:59:41,359
>> I've sunk the great majority of of my
3706
02:59:39,279 --> 02:59:43,520
net worth into [music] X.com, which is
3707
02:59:41,359 --> 02:59:46,000
the new banking and mutual funds company
3708
02:59:43,520 --> 02:59:48,479
on the internet that I've started.
3709
02:59:46,000 --> 02:59:51,279
December 1998,
3710
02:59:48,479 --> 02:59:54,640
Peter Theel co-founds a company called
3711
02:59:51,279 --> 02:59:56,960
Conffinity with Max Levchin, a brilliant
3712
02:59:54,640 --> 02:59:59,359
Ukrainian born programmer, and Luke
3713
02:59:56,960 --> 03:00:01,359
Nosk, a fellow Stanford review
3714
02:59:59,359 --> 03:00:04,479
illuminous.
3715
03:00:01,359 --> 03:00:06,479
Initial funding, $300,000 scraped
3716
03:00:04,479 --> 03:00:08,640
together from friends, family, and
3717
03:00:06,479 --> 03:00:10,720
fellow libertarian true believers from
3718
03:00:08,640 --> 03:00:13,120
the Stamford days.
3719
03:00:10,720 --> 03:00:17,040
The original product idea, digital
3720
03:00:13,120 --> 03:00:19,439
wallets on Palm Pilot handheld devices.
3721
03:00:17,040 --> 03:00:20,960
The vision was that people would beam
3722
03:00:19,439 --> 03:00:24,640
money to each [music] other using
3723
03:00:20,960 --> 03:00:27,359
infrared ports on the Palm Pilots
3724
03:00:24,640 --> 03:00:28,880
in coffee shops, at restaurants,
3725
03:00:27,359 --> 03:00:33,240
persontoerson,
3726
03:00:28,880 --> 03:00:33,240
bypassing banks entirely.
3727
03:00:33,520 --> 03:00:41,600
Total users [music] after 6 months of
3728
03:00:35,680 --> 03:00:43,840
operation, 12 people. literally 12.
3729
03:00:41,600 --> 03:00:46,640
Most of them were employees and their
3730
03:00:43,840 --> 03:00:50,160
friends testing the system. It was a
3731
03:00:46,640 --> 03:00:53,120
complete and utter flop. The technology
3732
03:00:50,160 --> 03:00:58,080
worked, but nobody cared. Nobody wanted
3733
03:00:53,120 --> 03:01:01,439
it. March 2000, Conffinity pivots hard
3734
03:00:58,080 --> 03:01:03,840
and launches a new feature, email-based
3735
03:01:01,439 --> 03:01:06,880
money transfers.
3736
03:01:03,840 --> 03:01:08,880
You send money to any email address. The
3737
03:01:06,880 --> 03:01:10,880
recipient gets a notification, [music]
3738
03:01:08,880 --> 03:01:14,399
creates an account, and the money is
3739
03:01:10,880 --> 03:01:18,240
there. Simple, instant, revolutionary.
3740
03:01:14,399 --> 03:01:21,120
The name of this new service, PayPal.
3741
03:01:18,240 --> 03:01:23,760
Within weeks, user growth exploded at a
3742
03:01:21,120 --> 03:01:25,359
rate nobody had ever seen in financial
3743
03:01:23,760 --> 03:01:27,439
services.
3744
03:01:25,359 --> 03:01:32,560
Month one, 10,000 [music]
3745
03:01:27,439 --> 03:01:37,360
users. Month three, 100,000 users. Month
3746
03:01:32,560 --> 03:01:40,399
6, 1 million users. Month 12, 5 million
3747
03:01:37,360 --> 03:01:42,800
[music] users.
3748
03:01:40,399 --> 03:01:45,040
This was the fastest user adoption rate
3749
03:01:42,800 --> 03:01:48,000
in the entire history of financial
3750
03:01:45,040 --> 03:01:50,479
services. Faster than credit cards,
3751
03:01:48,000 --> 03:01:52,479
faster than checking accounts, faster
3752
03:01:50,479 --> 03:01:55,040
than anything.
3753
03:01:52,479 --> 03:01:58,080
But here is what most people do not know
3754
03:01:55,040 --> 03:02:01,439
about PayPal's growth. Here is the
3755
03:01:58,080 --> 03:02:04,560
secret that the mythology leaves out.
3756
03:02:01,439 --> 03:02:08,960
PayPal's explosive user acquisition was
3757
03:02:04,560 --> 03:02:13,840
not organic. It was not word of mouth.
3758
03:02:08,960 --> 03:02:16,160
It was not viral in the natural sense.
3759
03:02:13,840 --> 03:02:20,080
They literally bought their users with
3760
03:02:16,160 --> 03:02:22,880
cash. The strategy was elegantly simple
3761
03:02:20,080 --> 03:02:26,000
and brutally expensive.
3762
03:02:22,880 --> 03:02:29,120
Sign up for a PayPal account, get $10
3763
03:02:26,000 --> 03:02:32,720
deposited instantly. Refer a friend who
3764
03:02:29,120 --> 03:02:35,656
signs up gets another $10. Your friend
3765
03:02:32,720 --> 03:02:36,560
also gets $10. Cost per acquisition
3766
03:02:35,656 --> 03:02:40,240
[music]
3767
03:02:36,560 --> 03:02:43,840
20 to $40 per user depending on how many
3768
03:02:40,240 --> 03:02:47,120
referrals each user [music] generated.
3769
03:02:43,840 --> 03:02:50,000
Monthly cash burn rate of peak growth 10
3770
03:02:47,120 --> 03:02:53,600
to 12 million [music]
3771
03:02:50,000 --> 03:02:56,080
just vanishing into user acquisition. By
3772
03:02:53,600 --> 03:02:59,760
late 2000, PayPal was [music] spending
3773
03:02:56,080 --> 03:03:02,880
60 to 70 million annually just to buy
3774
03:02:59,760 --> 03:03:04,960
users with cash incentives.
3775
03:03:02,880 --> 03:03:07,600
They were hemorrhaging money at a
3776
03:03:04,960 --> 03:03:10,160
terrifying rate. Investors were
3777
03:03:07,600 --> 03:03:12,880
panicking. Board members were demanding
3778
03:03:10,160 --> 03:03:15,359
answers.
3779
03:03:12,880 --> 03:03:18,960
How long can you sustain spending $10
3780
03:03:15,359 --> 03:03:22,000
million a month buying users?
3781
03:03:18,960 --> 03:03:25,040
But Theo had done the mathematics. He
3782
03:03:22,000 --> 03:03:28,000
had run the numbers obsessively.
3783
03:03:25,040 --> 03:03:31,332
Each acquired user was worth $100 to
3784
03:03:28,000 --> 03:03:34,479
$200 in lifetime transaction fee revenue
3785
03:03:31,332 --> 03:03:37,520
[music] through the PayPal network. They
3786
03:03:34,479 --> 03:03:41,760
were buying $100 bills for $20 [music]
3787
03:03:37,520 --> 03:03:43,920
bills. It was either genius or insanity
3788
03:03:41,760 --> 03:03:47,600
depending on whether the math actually
3789
03:03:43,920 --> 03:03:50,319
worked. The believed it would work. He
3790
03:03:47,600 --> 03:03:53,520
bet everything on it. But there was a
3791
03:03:50,319 --> 03:03:55,520
problem. a major problem. Another
3792
03:03:53,520 --> 03:03:59,840
company was doing [music] the exact same
3793
03:03:55,520 --> 03:04:03,040
thing. X.com, a finance company founded
3794
03:03:59,840 --> 03:04:05,520
by Elon Musk with money from his Zip 2
3795
03:04:03,040 --> 03:04:10,240
exit and a vision for online banking
3796
03:04:05,520 --> 03:04:13,840
that was nearly identical to PayPal's.
3797
03:04:10,240 --> 03:04:16,527
Two companies, same idea, same market,
3798
03:04:13,840 --> 03:04:19,840
both burning massive amounts of cash at
3799
03:04:16,527 --> 03:04:22,000
[music] completely unsustainable rates.
3800
03:04:19,840 --> 03:04:26,080
Total funding raised between both
3801
03:04:22,000 --> 03:04:29,359
companies over $100 million.
3802
03:04:26,080 --> 03:04:30,800
Combined monthly cash burn rate over $20
3803
03:04:29,359 --> 03:04:33,200
million [music]
3804
03:04:30,800 --> 03:04:38,240
time until both companies simultaneously
3805
03:04:33,200 --> 03:04:41,040
ran out of money less than 6 months.
3806
03:04:38,240 --> 03:04:44,000
The merger was inevitable.
3807
03:04:41,040 --> 03:04:47,200
X.com [music] and Confinity merged into
3808
03:04:44,000 --> 03:04:49,277
a single entity. The combined company
3809
03:04:47,200 --> 03:04:51,600
kept the PayPal name because users
3810
03:04:49,277 --> 03:04:54,560
[music] had already adopted it. The
3811
03:04:51,600 --> 03:04:56,560
brand had momentum. Elon Musk became
3812
03:04:54,560 --> 03:05:01,720
chief executive [music] officer of the
3813
03:04:56,560 --> 03:05:01,720
merged company for 5 months.
3814
03:05:03,040 --> 03:05:09,359
October 2000, while Elon Musk was on his
3815
03:05:06,720 --> 03:05:12,080
honeymoon, the board of directors led by
3816
03:05:09,359 --> 03:05:15,279
Peter Theel and other Confinity founders
3817
03:05:12,080 --> 03:05:17,840
held an emergency meeting and voted Musk
3818
03:05:15,279 --> 03:05:20,560
out as CEO.
3819
03:05:17,840 --> 03:05:21,279
The official reason cited strategic
3820
03:05:20,560 --> 03:05:24,640
disagreements [music]
3821
03:05:21,279 --> 03:05:27,920
over technology platform. Musk wanted to
3822
03:05:24,640 --> 03:05:31,600
use Microsoft software. The Confinity
3823
03:05:27,920 --> 03:05:34,960
engineers believed in Unixbased systems.
3824
03:05:31,600 --> 03:05:40,720
The actual reason Theel wanted control,
3825
03:05:34,960 --> 03:05:42,960
full control. This was his company now.
3826
03:05:40,720 --> 03:05:45,619
Peter Theel became chief executive
3827
03:05:42,960 --> 03:05:48,000
officer of PayPal. Elon Musk remained
3828
03:05:45,619 --> 03:05:52,479
[music] a major shareholder, but his
3829
03:05:48,000 --> 03:05:55,359
operational control was finished.
3830
03:05:52,479 --> 03:05:57,840
The two men, both future billionaires,
3831
03:05:55,359 --> 03:06:02,000
both future power brokers, had their
3832
03:05:57,840 --> 03:06:04,800
first battle. feel one. At its core,
3833
03:06:02,000 --> 03:06:07,520
PayPal ran on a simple idea that turned
3834
03:06:04,800 --> 03:06:10,000
into a powerful engine.
3835
03:06:07,520 --> 03:06:14,080
Every time money moved, PayPal took a
3836
03:06:10,000 --> 03:06:16,560
small cut, 2.9% plus 30 cents per
3837
03:06:14,080 --> 03:06:18,319
transaction. If that money crossed
3838
03:06:16,560 --> 03:06:21,680
borders, [music] the fee climbed to
3839
03:06:18,319 --> 03:06:23,520
between 2 1/2 and 4%.
3840
03:06:21,680 --> 03:06:25,359
Then there was the float, [music] the
3841
03:06:23,520 --> 03:06:27,680
cash sitting in PayPal's accounts
3842
03:06:25,359 --> 03:06:31,040
between payments, quietly earning
3843
03:06:27,680 --> 03:06:33,920
interest for the company. Tiny slices
3844
03:06:31,040 --> 03:06:37,040
repeated millions of times.
3845
03:06:33,920 --> 03:06:40,800
By 2001, the numbers told the story of a
3846
03:06:37,040 --> 03:06:43,760
system coming to life. Every single day,
3847
03:06:40,800 --> 03:06:46,720
5 to8 million flowed through PayPal's
3848
03:06:43,760 --> 03:06:51,680
network. Each month, that translated
3849
03:06:46,720 --> 03:06:54,640
into 10 to$15 million in revenue.
3850
03:06:51,680 --> 03:06:57,200
But growth at this speed came at a cost.
3851
03:06:54,640 --> 03:07:00,080
Running the system, fighting fraud,
3852
03:06:57,200 --> 03:07:05,200
scaling infrastructure, acquiring users,
3853
03:07:00,080 --> 03:07:07,520
was burning 20 to30 million every month.
3854
03:07:05,200 --> 03:07:09,920
The machine worked, it just wasn't
3855
03:07:07,520 --> 03:07:11,920
profitable yet.
3856
03:07:09,920 --> 03:07:14,479
Late 2000,
3857
03:07:11,920 --> 03:07:18,160
PayPal's data scientists discovered
3858
03:07:14,479 --> 03:07:20,560
something crucial. 70% of all PayPal
3859
03:07:18,160 --> 03:07:22,240
transactions were happening on eBay
3860
03:07:20,560 --> 03:07:24,479
auctions.
3861
03:07:22,240 --> 03:07:27,120
People buying and selling random items
3862
03:07:24,479 --> 03:07:30,479
on the internet's largest marketplace
3863
03:07:27,120 --> 03:07:32,800
were using PayPal to move money. The
3864
03:07:30,479 --> 03:07:36,160
strategic insight became immediately
3865
03:07:32,800 --> 03:07:40,319
clear. Make PayPal the only payment
3866
03:07:36,160 --> 03:07:44,319
method that eBay users trust completely.
3867
03:07:40,319 --> 03:07:46,960
Own that market, become indispensable.
3868
03:07:44,319 --> 03:07:49,279
The execution buyer protection
3869
03:07:46,960 --> 03:07:52,080
guarantees that eBay's own payment
3870
03:07:49,279 --> 03:07:54,800
system did not offer
3871
03:07:52,080 --> 03:07:58,600
instant payment transfers with no 7-day
3872
03:07:54,800 --> 03:07:58,600
check clearing period.
3873
03:07:59,040 --> 03:08:04,160
Fraud detection algorithms that were
3874
03:08:01,200 --> 03:08:07,120
better than credit card companies. Email
3875
03:08:04,160 --> 03:08:11,520
notifications for every transaction.
3876
03:08:07,120 --> 03:08:14,880
Simple, clean user interface.
3877
03:08:11,520 --> 03:08:18,640
By mid 2001, the strategy was working
3878
03:08:14,880 --> 03:08:21,359
beyond all projections. 50% of all eBay
3879
03:08:18,640 --> 03:08:24,640
auctions accepted PayPal as a payment
3880
03:08:21,359 --> 03:08:27,520
method. PayPal was processing [music]
3881
03:08:24,640 --> 03:08:30,479
$50 million daily in eBay related
3882
03:08:27,520 --> 03:08:35,680
transactions alone. And then eBay
3883
03:08:30,479 --> 03:08:37,760
noticed and eBay was not happy.
3884
03:08:35,680 --> 03:08:40,080
eBay launched their own competing
3885
03:08:37,760 --> 03:08:42,880
service called Billpoint and attempted
3886
03:08:40,080 --> 03:08:45,040
to kill PayPal through the marketplace.
3887
03:08:42,880 --> 03:08:48,080
They promoted Billoint in search
3888
03:08:45,040 --> 03:08:50,800
rankings. They penalized sellers who
3889
03:08:48,080 --> 03:08:53,920
only accepted PayPal. They made it
3890
03:08:50,800 --> 03:08:55,680
harder to display the PayPal logo. It
3891
03:08:53,920 --> 03:08:58,720
was war.
3892
03:08:55,680 --> 03:09:01,359
PayPal's response was total war.
3893
03:08:58,720 --> 03:09:03,920
Temporarily lower transaction fees to
3894
03:09:01,359 --> 03:09:06,080
undercut Billoint.
3895
03:09:03,920 --> 03:09:09,279
Guarantee faster money transfers than
3896
03:09:06,080 --> 03:09:12,960
eBay could offer. Invest heavily in
3897
03:09:09,279 --> 03:09:16,000
superior $30 million deployed in 2001
3898
03:09:12,960 --> 03:09:18,560
fraud protection. Massive marketing
3899
03:09:16,000 --> 03:09:22,319
spending alone.
3900
03:09:18,560 --> 03:09:26,640
By early 2002, the war was over. PayPal
3901
03:09:22,319 --> 03:09:30,640
controlled 65% of eBay's payment market.
3902
03:09:26,640 --> 03:09:32,960
Bill point [music] at barely 10%.
3903
03:09:30,640 --> 03:09:35,600
eBay executives looked at the numbers
3904
03:09:32,960 --> 03:09:40,640
and reached a conclusion, if you cannot
3905
03:09:35,600 --> 03:09:44,800
beat them, buy them. July 2002,
3906
03:09:40,640 --> 03:09:46,880
eBay acquires PayPal for $1.5 billion in
3907
03:09:44,800 --> 03:09:50,560
eBay stock.
3908
03:09:46,880 --> 03:09:53,439
Peter Theal owned approximately $3.7% of
3909
03:09:50,560 --> 03:09:56,640
PayPal at the time of the acquisition.
3910
03:09:53,439 --> 03:10:00,160
His equity stake was worth $55 million
3911
03:09:56,640 --> 03:10:02,640
in eBay stock. After taxes, he walked
3912
03:10:00,160 --> 03:10:06,560
away with approximately $40 million in
3913
03:10:02,640 --> 03:10:10,160
liquid wealth. At age 34, he had won his
3914
03:10:06,560 --> 03:10:12,160
first billion dollar game.
3915
03:10:10,160 --> 03:10:15,520
But the money was not the most valuable
3916
03:10:12,160 --> 03:10:19,520
thing he extracted from PayPal. The real
3917
03:10:15,520 --> 03:10:21,520
value was the network, the PayPal mafia,
3918
03:10:19,520 --> 03:10:24,319
the name they [music] gave themselves.
3919
03:10:21,520 --> 03:10:27,279
And it was not ironic. It was
3920
03:10:24,319 --> 03:10:29,600
descriptive. The core team that Theel
3921
03:10:27,279 --> 03:10:31,359
assembled at PayPal would go on to
3922
03:10:29,600 --> 03:10:35,200
create some of the most valuable
3923
03:10:31,359 --> 03:10:40,000
companies in human history. Elon Musk
3924
03:10:35,200 --> 03:10:44,880
Tesla market cap [music] $650 billion.
3925
03:10:40,000 --> 03:10:47,920
SpaceX estimated value $150 billion.
3926
03:10:44,880 --> 03:10:50,880
Reed Hoffman LinkedIn sold to Microsoft
3927
03:10:47,920 --> 03:10:54,960
for $26 billion.
3928
03:10:50,880 --> 03:10:58,399
Steve Chen, Chad Hurley, Jawed Kareem.
3929
03:10:54,960 --> 03:11:04,600
YouTube sold to Google for $1.65
3930
03:10:58,399 --> 03:11:04,600
billion, now worth over 100 billion.
3931
03:11:04,880 --> 03:11:11,600
Jeremy Stoppleman and Russell Simmons,
3932
03:11:07,520 --> 03:11:14,640
Yelp, peaked at $3 billion market cap.
3933
03:11:11,600 --> 03:11:17,760
David Saxs, Yammer, sold to Microsoft
3934
03:11:14,640 --> 03:11:20,720
for $1.2 billion.
3935
03:11:17,760 --> 03:11:24,960
later founded Craft Ventures. Max
3936
03:11:20,720 --> 03:11:30,080
Levchin, a firm $12 billion company,
3937
03:11:24,960 --> 03:11:32,880
also co-founded Yelp. Keith Rabo, COO of
3938
03:11:30,080 --> 03:11:37,560
Square, partner at Founders Fund,
3939
03:11:32,880 --> 03:11:37,560
investor in dozens of unicorns.
3940
03:11:37,680 --> 03:11:44,399
Roloff Bofer, partner at Seoia Capital,
3941
03:11:41,600 --> 03:11:48,960
led investments in Instagram, YouTube,
3942
03:11:44,399 --> 03:11:52,000
Tumblr, MongoDB, Eventbrite.
3943
03:11:48,960 --> 03:11:53,920
Total value created by the PayPal mafia
3944
03:11:52,000 --> 03:11:57,439
across all their companies,
3945
03:11:53,920 --> 03:11:59,840
conservatively estimated at over $200
3946
03:11:57,439 --> 03:12:02,160
billion in combined market
3947
03:11:59,840 --> 03:12:04,319
capitalization.
3948
03:12:02,160 --> 03:12:06,160
Field's ownership stakes across this
3949
03:12:04,319 --> 03:12:09,359
extended network through direct
3950
03:12:06,160 --> 03:12:12,560
investments and fund positions estimated
3951
03:12:09,359 --> 03:12:14,560
at 2 to4 billion.
3952
03:12:12,560 --> 03:12:15,760
This was not just a company that got
3953
03:12:14,560 --> 03:12:18,000
acquired. [music]
3954
03:12:15,760 --> 03:12:20,560
This was the creation of the most
3955
03:12:18,000 --> 03:12:23,960
powerful business cartel in Silicon
3956
03:12:20,560 --> 03:12:23,960
Valley history.
3957
03:12:24,160 --> 03:12:29,680
But what made PayPal different was not
3958
03:12:26,720 --> 03:12:32,080
the technology. Not really. The
3959
03:12:29,680 --> 03:12:33,680
technology was impressive but not
3960
03:12:32,080 --> 03:12:35,760
miraculous.
3961
03:12:33,680 --> 03:12:38,560
What made PayPal different was the
3962
03:12:35,760 --> 03:12:40,399
culture, the religion of extreme
3963
03:12:38,560 --> 03:12:43,439
meritocracy.
3964
03:12:40,399 --> 03:12:45,359
Theo's hiring criteria were brutally
3965
03:12:43,439 --> 03:12:49,200
specific.
3966
03:12:45,359 --> 03:12:52,560
One raw intelligence, high test scores,
3967
03:12:49,200 --> 03:12:54,479
ability to solve complex puzzles, proof
3968
03:12:52,560 --> 03:12:58,000
you could think better than everyone
3969
03:12:54,479 --> 03:13:01,040
else. [music] Two, intensity.
3970
03:12:58,000 --> 03:13:02,960
Are you willing to work 100hour weeks?
3971
03:13:01,040 --> 03:13:05,760
Are you willing to sacrifice everything
3972
03:13:02,960 --> 03:13:08,960
else in your life for the mission?
3973
03:13:05,760 --> 03:13:10,880
Three, [music] missionary zeal. Do you
3974
03:13:08,960 --> 03:13:14,960
actually believe we are changing the
3975
03:13:10,880 --> 03:13:18,240
world or are you here for a paycheck?
3976
03:13:14,960 --> 03:13:20,479
Four, loyalty to the tribe. Will you
3977
03:13:18,240 --> 03:13:23,760
protect the other members? Will you put
3978
03:13:20,479 --> 03:13:27,120
the group above yourself?
3979
03:13:23,760 --> 03:13:31,120
Average employee age at PayPal 25 years
3980
03:13:27,120 --> 03:13:32,640
old. Average work week [music] 80 to 100
3981
03:13:31,120 --> 03:13:34,960
hours.
3982
03:13:32,640 --> 03:13:37,520
Office culture libertarian,
3983
03:13:34,960 --> 03:13:39,359
anti-regulation, contrarian,
3984
03:13:37,520 --> 03:13:41,439
anti-establishment.
3985
03:13:39,359 --> 03:13:43,920
They called themselves the mafia
3986
03:13:41,439 --> 03:13:47,479
specifically because loyalty mattered
3987
03:13:43,920 --> 03:13:47,479
more than credentials,
3988
03:13:48,720 --> 03:13:54,239
more than degrees, more than previous
3989
03:13:50,960 --> 03:13:57,120
experience. Theel's operating principle
3990
03:13:54,239 --> 03:13:59,439
stated explicitly and repeatedly,
3991
03:13:57,120 --> 03:14:01,120
talented people do not want to work with
3992
03:13:59,439 --> 03:14:04,960
people who are less talented [music]
3993
03:14:01,120 --> 03:14:07,279
than they are. So every new hire must be
3994
03:14:04,960 --> 03:14:09,680
more talented than the average current
3995
03:14:07,279 --> 03:14:13,359
employee. Otherwise, we [music] are
3996
03:14:09,680 --> 03:14:16,080
diluting the talent pool. This created a
3997
03:14:13,359 --> 03:14:19,439
self-reinforcing escalation, [music]
3998
03:14:16,080 --> 03:14:22,160
an arms race of hiring. Every new person
3999
03:14:19,439 --> 03:14:25,680
raised the bar. The standards became
4000
03:14:22,160 --> 03:14:28,880
higher and higher. Only the absolute
4001
03:14:25,680 --> 03:14:32,160
best could get in. And once you were in,
4002
03:14:28,880 --> 03:14:34,560
you were family. But here is what most
4003
03:14:32,160 --> 03:14:36,640
people [music] forget about PayPal. Here
4004
03:14:34,560 --> 03:14:39,279
is the original vision that got erased
4005
03:14:36,640 --> 03:14:42,560
from the mythology. PayPal [music] was
4006
03:14:39,279 --> 03:14:44,640
supposed to destroy the Federal Reserve.
4007
03:14:42,560 --> 03:14:47,760
It was supposed to undermine state
4008
03:14:44,640 --> 03:14:50,479
control of currency. That was the actual
4009
03:14:47,760 --> 03:14:52,800
mission. That was why Peter Theal, the
4010
03:14:50,479 --> 03:14:55,200
libertarian ideologue, cared so [music]
4011
03:14:52,800 --> 03:14:57,760
much.
4012
03:14:55,200 --> 03:15:00,640
The original vision laid out in Theo's
4013
03:14:57,760 --> 03:15:04,080
founding documents create a new digital
4014
03:15:00,640 --> 03:15:05,920
currency outside government control.
4015
03:15:04,080 --> 03:15:08,239
Enable [music] true peer-to-peer
4016
03:15:05,920 --> 03:15:09,840
transactions globally without state
4017
03:15:08,239 --> 03:15:11,439
intermediaries.
4018
03:15:09,840 --> 03:15:15,040
Undermine the state monopoly [music]
4019
03:15:11,439 --> 03:15:17,600
on money creation and management.
4020
03:15:15,040 --> 03:15:19,920
build the financial infrastructure for a
4021
03:15:17,600 --> 03:15:22,319
stateless society.
4022
03:15:19,920 --> 03:15:24,640
What actually happened? To become
4023
03:15:22,319 --> 03:15:27,279
mainstream, to [music] actually scale,
4024
03:15:24,640 --> 03:15:29,359
PayPal had to compromise every single
4025
03:15:27,279 --> 03:15:31,520
founding principle. [music] They had to
4026
03:15:29,359 --> 03:15:35,040
integrate with the traditional banking
4027
03:15:31,520 --> 03:15:36,880
system. The enemy, they had to comply
4028
03:15:35,040 --> 03:15:39,760
with know your [music] customer and
4029
03:15:36,880 --> 03:15:41,920
anti-moneyaundering regulations,
4030
03:15:39,760 --> 03:15:43,760
government control.
4031
03:15:41,920 --> 03:15:46,000
They had to partner with credit card
4032
03:15:43,760 --> 03:15:48,399
companies, the old system [music] they
4033
03:15:46,000 --> 03:15:50,960
wanted to destroy. They had to get
4034
03:15:48,399 --> 03:15:53,520
licensed in every single state.
4035
03:15:50,960 --> 03:15:55,680
Regulatory [music] capture. They had to
4036
03:15:53,520 --> 03:15:59,359
report suspicious transactions to
4037
03:15:55,680 --> 03:16:03,040
federal authorities. Surveillance. By
4038
03:15:59,359 --> 03:16:05,920
2002, PayPal was regulated exactly like
4039
03:16:03,040 --> 03:16:08,080
a bank. Partnered with banks, [music]
4040
03:16:05,920 --> 03:16:10,479
dependent on banks for all core
4041
03:16:08,080 --> 03:16:12,720
functionalities. The libertarian
4042
03:16:10,479 --> 03:16:14,800
revolution had become just another
4043
03:16:12,720 --> 03:16:17,120
fintech company [music] playing by the
4044
03:16:14,800 --> 03:16:19,439
government's rules.
4045
03:16:17,120 --> 03:16:21,520
The learned the most important lesson of
4046
03:16:19,439 --> 03:16:24,399
his career from PayPal's failure to
4047
03:16:21,520 --> 03:16:26,880
achieve its revolutionary mission. You
4048
03:16:24,399 --> 03:16:29,760
cannot disrupt the system from inside
4049
03:16:26,880 --> 03:16:32,080
the system. If you want to change the
4050
03:16:29,760 --> 03:16:34,160
rules, you cannot ask permission from
4051
03:16:32,080 --> 03:16:36,399
the people who wrote them. [music]
4052
03:16:34,160 --> 03:16:41,880
This lesson would shape everything he
4053
03:16:36,399 --> 03:16:41,880
did next. Palanteer, Facebook,
4054
03:16:41,920 --> 03:16:48,000
his political investments, everything.
4055
03:16:45,855 --> 03:16:51,120
[music] The PayPal acquisition was not
4056
03:16:48,000 --> 03:16:53,920
an ending. It was a beginning, the start
4057
03:16:51,120 --> 03:16:55,681
of something much larger. The pattern
4058
03:16:53,920 --> 03:16:56,560
that emerged over the next 20 years.
4059
03:16:55,681 --> 03:16:59,120
[music]
4060
03:16:56,560 --> 03:17:01,680
PayPal veterans leave and start new
4061
03:16:59,120 --> 03:17:04,880
companies in different sectors.
4062
03:17:01,680 --> 03:17:07,760
Theel invests early as angel investor or
4063
03:17:04,880 --> 03:17:09,359
through founders fund. PayPal mafia
4064
03:17:07,760 --> 03:17:12,239
members join each other's [music] boards
4065
03:17:09,359 --> 03:17:14,000
of directors. Cross investment between
4066
03:17:12,239 --> 03:17:17,279
all their venture funds creates
4067
03:17:14,000 --> 03:17:20,319
alignment. Preferential access to deal
4068
03:17:17,279 --> 03:17:21,680
flow because of network relationships.
4069
03:17:20,319 --> 03:17:25,040
Shared [music] intelligence about
4070
03:17:21,680 --> 03:17:26,960
markets, technology, and opportunities.
4071
03:17:25,040 --> 03:17:30,479
Real examples of how the network
4072
03:17:26,960 --> 03:17:34,080
compounds. Reed Hoffman introduces Theel
4073
03:17:30,479 --> 03:17:38,080
to Mark Zuckerberg in 2004.
4074
03:17:34,080 --> 03:17:41,760
Theel invests $500,000 in Facebook,
4075
03:17:38,080 --> 03:17:44,960
eventually makes over $1 billion.
4076
03:17:41,760 --> 03:17:47,120
Roloff Botha joins Sequoia Capital and
4077
03:17:44,960 --> 03:17:49,600
invests in multiple Theelbacked
4078
03:17:47,120 --> 03:17:51,200
companies, creating reciprocal deal
4079
03:17:49,600 --> 03:17:53,120
flows.
4080
03:17:51,200 --> 03:17:55,040
David Saxs hosts high [music] dollar
4081
03:17:53,120 --> 03:17:58,000
fundraisers for Theo's political
4082
03:17:55,040 --> 03:18:01,000
candidates, mixing business and politics
4083
03:17:58,000 --> 03:18:01,000
seamlessly.
4084
03:18:01,120 --> 03:18:04,560
Max Levchim provides seed capital for
4085
03:18:03,760 --> 03:18:07,279
Palanteer [music]
4086
03:18:04,560 --> 03:18:09,279
and serves as advisor lending
4087
03:18:07,279 --> 03:18:11,520
credibility.
4088
03:18:09,279 --> 03:18:14,937
This network effect multiplier is
4089
03:18:11,520 --> 03:18:15,520
precisely how Theel turned $55 million
4090
03:18:14,937 --> 03:18:19,040
[music]
4091
03:18:15,520 --> 03:18:21,040
from PayPal into over $5 billion in net
4092
03:18:19,040 --> 03:18:24,399
worth today.
4093
03:18:21,040 --> 03:18:26,960
The PayPal mafia is not a cute nickname.
4094
03:18:24,399 --> 03:18:28,691
It is not a metaphor. It is the most
4095
03:18:26,960 --> 03:18:31,760
successful organized business cartel
4096
03:18:28,691 --> 03:18:33,920
[music] in Silicon Valley history.
4097
03:18:31,760 --> 03:18:36,239
A self-reinforcing [music] network of
4098
03:18:33,920 --> 03:18:38,479
wealth, power, and influence that has
4099
03:18:36,239 --> 03:18:40,319
shaped the entire technology industry
4100
03:18:38,479 --> 03:18:43,279
for two decades. [music]
4101
03:18:40,319 --> 03:18:47,399
And Peter Theal sits at the center of it
4102
03:18:43,279 --> 03:18:47,399
all. The Godfather.
4103
03:18:52,720 --> 03:18:57,439
After PayPal, Peter Theel was a man with
4104
03:18:55,680 --> 03:19:00,800
a billion [music] dollars and a
4105
03:18:57,439 --> 03:19:02,880
dangerous secret. While other investors
4106
03:19:00,800 --> 03:19:05,040
were looking at spreadsheets and profit
4107
03:19:02,880 --> 03:19:07,120
margins, Theel was looking [music] at
4108
03:19:05,040 --> 03:19:09,920
the human soul through the eyes of his
4109
03:19:07,120 --> 03:19:13,200
mentor, Renee Gerard.
4110
03:19:09,920 --> 03:19:16,640
Gerard taught him a terrifying truth.
4111
03:19:13,200 --> 03:19:19,760
Human beings don't know what they want.
4112
03:19:16,640 --> 03:19:22,479
We are mimemetic creatures. We don't
4113
03:19:19,760 --> 03:19:25,040
desire things for themselves. We desire
4114
03:19:22,479 --> 03:19:27,200
them because other people desire them.
4115
03:19:25,040 --> 03:19:30,479
We are copy machines disguised [music]
4116
03:19:27,200 --> 03:19:33,120
as individuals.
4117
03:19:30,479 --> 03:19:35,840
August 2004.
4118
03:19:33,120 --> 03:19:39,120
Facebook has been online for exactly 6
4119
03:19:35,840 --> 03:19:41,600
months. It started as a Harvard dorm
4120
03:19:39,120 --> 03:19:44,560
project and has now expanded to several
4121
03:19:41,600 --> 03:19:47,840
college campuses.
4122
03:19:44,560 --> 03:19:51,680
The metrics that Zuckerberg shows Theel
4123
03:19:47,840 --> 03:19:55,040
total registered users 200,000
4124
03:19:51,680 --> 03:19:58,640
almost entirely college students
4125
03:19:55,040 --> 03:20:00,239
daily active user rate 70 to [music] 80%
4126
03:19:58,640 --> 03:20:05,040
engagement
4127
03:20:00,239 --> 03:20:07,920
unprecedented in web services revenue $0
4128
03:20:05,040 --> 03:20:12,000
no business model yet valuation
4129
03:20:07,920 --> 03:20:13,840
Zuckerberg is asking for $5 million
4130
03:20:12,000 --> 03:20:16,399
every single professional venture
4131
03:20:13,840 --> 03:20:19,200
capitalist in Silicon Valley has passed
4132
03:20:16,399 --> 03:20:22,319
on Facebook. Every major firm has looked
4133
03:20:19,200 --> 03:20:25,680
into it and said no. The reasons they
4134
03:20:22,319 --> 03:20:29,359
gave it is just a college directory.
4135
03:20:25,680 --> 03:20:31,680
Limited market. Fster has already 5
4136
03:20:29,359 --> 03:20:34,640
million users and is the leader in
4137
03:20:31,680 --> 03:20:37,760
social networking. MySpace is dominant
4138
03:20:34,640 --> 03:20:40,160
with 8 million users and growing fast.
4139
03:20:37,760 --> 03:20:43,600
There is no obvious business model or
4140
03:20:40,160 --> 03:20:46,243
revenue stream. Mark Zuckerberg is too
4141
03:20:43,600 --> 03:20:49,359
young, too inexperienced, too risky
4142
03:20:46,243 --> 03:20:51,680
[music] as a founder.
4143
03:20:49,359 --> 03:20:54,239
Peter Theel saw something completely
4144
03:20:51,680 --> 03:20:56,399
different, something that had nothing to
4145
03:20:54,239 --> 03:20:58,800
do with technology.
4146
03:20:56,399 --> 03:21:01,840
Theel had spent years studying Renee
4147
03:20:58,800 --> 03:21:03,840
Gerard's mimemetic theory, the
4148
03:21:01,840 --> 03:21:07,200
philosophical framework that would shape
4149
03:21:03,840 --> 03:21:08,160
his entire investment approach. The core
4150
03:21:07,200 --> 03:21:11,520
idea, [music]
4151
03:21:08,160 --> 03:21:14,960
humans do not have original desires.
4152
03:21:11,520 --> 03:21:17,279
We desire what other people desire. We
4153
03:21:14,960 --> 03:21:21,920
learn what to want by watching other
4154
03:21:17,279 --> 03:21:26,319
people want. Desire is imitative. Desire
4155
03:21:21,920 --> 03:21:28,479
is social. Desire is mimemetic.
4156
03:21:26,319 --> 03:21:30,560
When Theel looked at Facebook, he did
4157
03:21:28,479 --> 03:21:33,279
not see a technology platform for
4158
03:21:30,560 --> 03:21:35,680
connecting friends. He saw something far
4159
03:21:33,279 --> 03:21:38,880
more powerful. He saw the perfect
4160
03:21:35,680 --> 03:21:41,920
mimemetic desire machine. The insight
4161
03:21:38,880 --> 03:21:43,439
that made Theel invest. Social networks
4162
03:21:41,920 --> 03:21:46,000
do not create [music] value by
4163
03:21:43,439 --> 03:21:49,279
connecting people. That is not where the
4164
03:21:46,000 --> 03:21:51,439
money is. The money is in comparison.
4165
03:21:49,279 --> 03:21:54,560
The money is in making people compare
4166
03:21:51,439 --> 03:21:56,319
themselves to each other constantly.
4167
03:21:54,560 --> 03:21:59,840
You see [music] your friend's vacation
4168
03:21:56,319 --> 03:22:01,359
photos, you want a better vacation. You
4169
03:21:59,840 --> 03:22:04,560
see someone's job promotion
4170
03:22:01,359 --> 03:22:07,120
announcement, you want higher status.
4171
03:22:04,560 --> 03:22:10,319
You see someone's relationship photos,
4172
03:22:07,120 --> 03:22:12,160
you want [music] romance.
4173
03:22:10,319 --> 03:22:15,439
You see someone getting likes and
4174
03:22:12,160 --> 03:22:18,319
comments, you want validation.
4175
03:22:15,439 --> 03:22:21,680
You see someone's perfect life, you feel
4176
03:22:18,319 --> 03:22:23,185
your own life is inadequate.
4177
03:22:21,680 --> 03:22:24,479
Facebook was not selling connections.
4178
03:22:23,185 --> 03:22:28,319
[music]
4179
03:22:24,479 --> 03:22:30,640
Facebook was selling envy. And envy, the
4180
03:22:28,319 --> 03:22:32,880
understood from Gerard is the most
4181
03:22:30,640 --> 03:22:34,160
powerful [music] economic force in human
4182
03:22:32,880 --> 03:22:37,359
history.
4183
03:22:34,160 --> 03:22:40,160
The desire for what others have. They
4184
03:22:37,359 --> 03:22:43,439
need to keep up. The fear of being left
4185
03:22:40,160 --> 03:22:46,880
behind. Infinite envy creates infinite
4186
03:22:43,439 --> 03:22:49,200
demand. Infinite demand creates infinite
4187
03:22:46,880 --> 03:22:51,680
value.
4188
03:22:49,200 --> 03:22:55,600
September 2004.
4189
03:22:51,680 --> 03:22:57,520
Peter Theal wires $500,000 to Facebook
4190
03:22:55,600 --> 03:23:01,760
incororated.
4191
03:22:57,520 --> 03:23:04,640
The deal terms 10.2% equity ownership in
4192
03:23:01,760 --> 03:23:06,399
the company. A board seat giving him
4193
03:23:04,640 --> 03:23:08,080
governance rights and inside
4194
03:23:06,399 --> 03:23:10,960
information.
4195
03:23:08,080 --> 03:23:14,319
Right of first refusal on all future
4196
03:23:10,960 --> 03:23:17,120
funding rounds. Post money valuation of
4197
03:23:14,319 --> 03:23:19,200
exactly $5 million.
4198
03:23:17,120 --> 03:23:22,479
Mark Zuckerberg's reaction after the
4199
03:23:19,200 --> 03:23:25,439
deal closed. This guy actually gets it.
4200
03:23:22,479 --> 03:23:28,479
He understands what we are building.
4201
03:23:25,439 --> 03:23:30,399
Silicon Valley's reaction. Peter Theal
4202
03:23:28,479 --> 03:23:33,520
just threw away half a million dollars
4203
03:23:30,399 --> 03:23:36,080
on a college kid's website. This will be
4204
03:23:33,520 --> 03:23:38,399
his biggest failure.
4205
03:23:36,080 --> 03:23:40,640
What happened next rewrote the history
4206
03:23:38,399 --> 03:23:46,000
of venture capital.
4207
03:23:40,640 --> 03:23:48,239
2004 end of year. 200,000 users grew to
4208
03:23:46,000 --> 03:23:52,319
1 million users.
4209
03:23:48,239 --> 03:23:55,840
Five times growth in 4 months. 2005
4210
03:23:52,319 --> 03:24:01,359
1 million users becomes 5.5 million
4211
03:23:55,840 --> 03:24:06,239
users. 2006 5.5 million users becomes 12
4212
03:24:01,359 --> 03:24:11,040
million users. 2007 12 million users
4213
03:24:06,239 --> 03:24:13,920
exploded to 50 million users. 2008 50
4214
03:24:11,040 --> 03:24:15,760
million users doubles to 100 million
4215
03:24:13,920 --> 03:24:17,359
users.
4216
03:24:15,760 --> 03:24:20,880
2009
4217
03:24:17,359 --> 03:24:24,239
100 million users becomes 350 million
4218
03:24:20,880 --> 03:24:27,439
users. growth rate. The user base was
4219
03:24:24,239 --> 03:24:29,760
doubling every 6 to9 months for five
4220
03:24:27,439 --> 03:24:32,319
consecutive years.
4221
03:24:29,760 --> 03:24:35,040
This growth curve had never been seen
4222
03:24:32,319 --> 03:24:38,560
before in business history. Not even
4223
03:24:35,040 --> 03:24:41,120
close. As Facebook grew, its valuation
4224
03:24:38,560 --> 03:24:43,359
grew and Peter Theel's stake grew with
4225
03:24:41,120 --> 03:24:45,520
it.
4226
03:24:43,359 --> 03:24:49,279
May 2005,
4227
03:24:45,520 --> 03:24:52,160
Axel Partners invests $12.7 million at
4228
03:24:49,279 --> 03:24:55,920
$100 million valuation.
4229
03:24:52,160 --> 03:24:59,439
Field's 10.2% stake is now worth $10.2
4230
03:24:55,920 --> 03:25:02,080
million. He has achieved 20 times return
4231
03:24:59,439 --> 03:25:05,600
in 9 months.
4232
03:25:02,080 --> 03:25:09,920
April 2006, Greylock Partners and
4233
03:25:05,600 --> 03:25:12,640
Meritech Capital invest $27.5 million at
4234
03:25:09,920 --> 03:25:16,080
$500 million valuation.
4235
03:25:12,640 --> 03:25:18,399
Theel stake is now worth $51 million,
4236
03:25:16,080 --> 03:25:20,160
100 times return on his original
4237
03:25:18,399 --> 03:25:22,560
investment.
4238
03:25:20,160 --> 03:25:27,120
October 2007,
4239
03:25:22,560 --> 03:25:30,800
Microsoft invests $240 million, valuing
4240
03:25:27,120 --> 03:25:35,200
Facebook at $15 billion.
4241
03:25:30,800 --> 03:25:39,760
The stake is now worth $1.5 billion, a
4242
03:25:35,200 --> 03:25:42,720
300,000 times return in 3 years.
4243
03:25:39,760 --> 03:25:45,120
2009 through 2011.
4244
03:25:42,720 --> 03:25:48,239
Multiple private sales and secondary
4245
03:25:45,120 --> 03:25:50,080
transactions value Facebook at $50
4246
03:25:48,239 --> 03:25:53,040
billion.
4247
03:25:50,080 --> 03:25:56,479
The stake, if he had held everything,
4248
03:25:53,040 --> 03:25:59,840
would be worth $5 billion.
4249
03:25:56,479 --> 03:26:02,239
May 18th, 2012,
4250
03:25:59,840 --> 03:26:07,120
Facebook goes public at a market
4251
03:26:02,239 --> 03:26:09,920
capitalization of $14 billion.
4252
03:26:07,120 --> 03:26:12,960
But the does not hold everything. He is
4253
03:26:09,920 --> 03:26:16,319
strategic. He is tactical. He takes
4254
03:26:12,960 --> 03:26:20,239
profits. At the initial public offering,
4255
03:26:16,319 --> 03:26:22,000
Theel sells $640 million worth of shares
4256
03:26:20,239 --> 03:26:24,319
immediately.
4257
03:26:22,000 --> 03:26:26,479
Over the following 6 months, he sells
4258
03:26:24,319 --> 03:26:28,800
the remainder of his stake in carefully
4259
03:26:26,479 --> 03:26:31,040
timed transactions.
4260
03:26:28,800 --> 03:26:35,760
Total cash realized from the Facebook
4261
03:26:31,040 --> 03:26:39,040
investment approximately $1 billion.
4262
03:26:35,760 --> 03:26:41,040
Initial investment in August 2004,
4263
03:26:39,040 --> 03:26:45,200
$500,000.
4264
03:26:41,040 --> 03:26:46,880
Total cash realized by end of 2012, $1
4265
03:26:45,200 --> 03:26:51,680
billion.
4266
03:26:46,880 --> 03:26:53,600
Total return, 2,000 times in 8 years.
4267
03:26:51,680 --> 03:26:56,479
This is the single greatest venture
4268
03:26:53,600 --> 03:26:59,200
capital return in recorded history.
4269
03:26:56,479 --> 03:27:02,399
Nothing else [music] comes close. But
4270
03:26:59,200 --> 03:27:04,800
here is the twist. The haunting decision
4271
03:27:02,399 --> 03:27:07,760
that Theel [music] himself admits keeps
4272
03:27:04,800 --> 03:27:09,279
him awake at night. Selling was a
4273
03:27:07,760 --> 03:27:12,000
mistake.
4274
03:27:09,279 --> 03:27:15,318
If Peter Theal had held his original
4275
03:27:12,000 --> 03:27:17,600
10.2% stake and had never sold a single
4276
03:27:15,318 --> 03:27:21,520
[music] share, that stake at Facebook's
4277
03:27:17,600 --> 03:27:25,439
peak market capitalization in 2021 would
4278
03:27:21,520 --> 03:27:28,640
have been worth 102 billion.
4279
03:27:25,439 --> 03:27:31,680
$12 billion.
4280
03:27:28,640 --> 03:27:33,840
He left $100 billion on the table by
4281
03:27:31,680 --> 03:27:35,439
selling early.
4282
03:27:33,840 --> 03:27:38,000
The himself admitted [music] this
4283
03:27:35,439 --> 03:27:40,800
publicly saying, "The mistake was not
4284
03:27:38,000 --> 03:27:42,880
investing in Facebook. The mistake was
4285
03:27:40,800 --> 03:27:45,600
selling Facebook. [music]
4286
03:27:42,880 --> 03:27:48,160
I should have held longer. I should have
4287
03:27:45,600 --> 03:27:52,800
believed more. It is the single most
4288
03:27:48,160 --> 03:27:54,880
expensive decision of his life." Years
4289
03:27:52,800 --> 03:27:57,120
later in [music] a Stanford lecture,
4290
03:27:54,880 --> 03:28:01,359
Theel explained his actual investment
4291
03:27:57,120 --> 03:28:02,960
thesis, the real reason he invested. I
4292
03:28:01,359 --> 03:28:04,880
did not [music] invest in Facebook
4293
03:28:02,960 --> 03:28:07,600
because I thought social networks were
4294
03:28:04,880 --> 03:28:09,279
going to be big. I invested because I
4295
03:28:07,600 --> 03:28:12,080
understood that humans will [music]
4296
03:28:09,279 --> 03:28:15,760
always want to be more like their peers.
4297
03:28:12,080 --> 03:28:18,239
That desire is infinite. It never stops.
4298
03:28:15,760 --> 03:28:20,180
It only intensifies.
4299
03:28:18,239 --> 03:28:20,800
An infinite desire creates infinite
4300
03:28:20,180 --> 03:28:24,399
[music]
4301
03:28:20,800 --> 03:28:25,920
value. The mimemetic theory made him a
4302
03:28:24,399 --> 03:28:28,160
billionaire.
4303
03:28:25,920 --> 03:28:30,239
The mimemetic theory also made him
4304
03:28:28,160 --> 03:28:31,760
terrified [music] of what he had helped
4305
03:28:30,239 --> 03:28:35,120
create.
4306
03:28:31,760 --> 03:28:37,200
A machine that weaponizes human envy. A
4307
03:28:35,120 --> 03:28:39,520
system that profits from [music] making
4308
03:28:37,200 --> 03:28:42,160
people feel inadequate.
4309
03:28:39,520 --> 03:28:44,720
An algorithm that amplifies the worst
4310
03:28:42,160 --> 03:28:46,960
aspects of human nature.
4311
03:28:44,720 --> 03:28:49,840
Peter Theal helped build the most
4312
03:28:46,960 --> 03:28:53,359
powerful behavior modification system in
4313
03:28:49,840 --> 03:28:57,239
human history. And then he cashed out
4314
03:28:53,359 --> 03:28:57,239
for a billion dollars.
4315
03:29:03,600 --> 03:29:08,479
2003 [music]
4316
03:29:05,120 --> 03:29:11,120
Peter Theel has a problem. It is the
4317
03:29:08,479 --> 03:29:14,560
CIA's problem, but they think [music]
4318
03:29:11,120 --> 03:29:17,359
the can solve it. His PayPal anti-fraud
4319
03:29:14,560 --> 03:29:19,680
algorithms have become so sophisticated
4320
03:29:17,359 --> 03:29:22,080
at detecting patterns in financial
4321
03:29:19,680 --> 03:29:23,699
transactions at finding terrorists
4322
03:29:22,080 --> 03:29:24,239
trying to move money through banking
4323
03:29:23,699 --> 03:29:28,000
[music]
4324
03:29:24,239 --> 03:29:31,920
systems that the CIA venture capital arm
4325
03:29:28,000 --> 03:29:34,800
in QEL requested a meeting. The pitch
4326
03:29:31,920 --> 03:29:37,520
from the CIA, can you build what you
4327
03:29:34,800 --> 03:29:40,479
built for PayPal but for national
4328
03:29:37,520 --> 03:29:43,200
security? Can you find terrorists the
4329
03:29:40,479 --> 03:29:45,120
way you found fraudsters?
4330
03:29:43,200 --> 03:29:47,520
May 2003.
4331
03:29:45,120 --> 03:29:49,920
Peter Theel co-founds Palunteer
4332
03:29:47,520 --> 03:29:51,520
Technologies with an unusual group of
4333
03:29:49,920 --> 03:29:54,479
co-founders.
4334
03:29:51,520 --> 03:29:57,920
The founding team, Alex Karp, chief
4335
03:29:54,479 --> 03:30:00,960
executive officer. Stanford law degree
4336
03:29:57,920 --> 03:30:03,680
philosophy PhD from Frankfurt University
4337
03:30:00,960 --> 03:30:07,120
in Germany. Former human rights lawyer
4338
03:30:03,680 --> 03:30:09,680
who once worked on refugee cases.
4339
03:30:07,120 --> 03:30:11,680
an extremely odd choice to run a company
4340
03:30:09,680 --> 03:30:13,840
that will become the most powerful
4341
03:30:11,680 --> 03:30:15,359
surveillance technology provider on
4342
03:30:13,840 --> 03:30:18,000
Earth.
4343
03:30:15,359 --> 03:30:21,040
Nathan Gettings, chief technology
4344
03:30:18,000 --> 03:30:24,000
officer. PayPal's lead security
4345
03:30:21,040 --> 03:30:26,960
engineer. Brilliant programmer. Joe
4346
03:30:24,000 --> 03:30:29,920
Lndale, a Stanford undergraduate
4347
03:30:26,960 --> 03:30:33,520
student, barely 20 years old, one of the
4348
03:30:29,920 --> 03:30:36,640
first Theel fellows. Steven Cohen,
4349
03:30:33,520 --> 03:30:38,479
PayPal's chief security architect. the
4350
03:30:36,640 --> 03:30:41,439
person who actually built the fraud
4351
03:30:38,479 --> 03:30:43,200
detection algorithms. Initial funding,
4352
03:30:41,439 --> 03:30:45,359
$2 million,
4353
03:30:43,200 --> 03:30:48,960
entirely from Peter Theel's personal
4354
03:30:45,359 --> 03:30:51,120
capital. No outside investors yet. This
4355
03:30:48,960 --> 03:30:53,760
is his project.
4356
03:30:51,120 --> 03:30:56,399
The mission statement, build software
4357
03:30:53,760 --> 03:30:58,880
that can find patterns in massive data
4358
03:30:56,399 --> 03:31:00,880
sets from disperate, incompatible
4359
03:30:58,880 --> 03:31:03,920
sources.
4360
03:31:00,880 --> 03:31:06,239
The kind of data that if intelligency
4361
03:31:03,920 --> 03:31:09,200
agencies had been able to analyze it
4362
03:31:06,239 --> 03:31:12,160
properly could have prevented September
4363
03:31:09,200 --> 03:31:15,120
11th, 2001.
4364
03:31:12,160 --> 03:31:17,359
The company name Palunteer
4365
03:31:15,120 --> 03:31:19,920
named after the seeing stones in Lord of
4366
03:31:17,359 --> 03:31:21,760
the Rings, the magical orbs that allow
4367
03:31:19,920 --> 03:31:24,720
their possessors to see anything
4368
03:31:21,760 --> 03:31:27,840
happening anywhere in Middle Earth. Even
4369
03:31:24,720 --> 03:31:30,239
the name revealed the ambition total
4370
03:31:27,840 --> 03:31:35,080
information awareness.
4371
03:31:30,239 --> 03:31:35,080
the ability to see everything.
4372
03:31:35,279 --> 03:31:40,399
2005,
4373
03:31:36,800 --> 03:31:42,800
the CIA's venture capital arm in CQEL
4374
03:31:40,399 --> 03:31:45,920
invest [music] $2 million in Palanteer's
4375
03:31:42,800 --> 03:31:48,880
series A funding round. This was not
4376
03:31:45,920 --> 03:31:51,680
just money. This was validation from the
4377
03:31:48,880 --> 03:31:54,080
intelligence community, a stamp of
4378
03:31:51,680 --> 03:31:56,560
approval from the most secretive, most
4379
03:31:54,080 --> 03:31:58,239
paranoid organization in the US
4380
03:31:56,560 --> 03:32:02,000
government.
4381
03:31:58,239 --> 03:32:04,160
Initial contract value undisclosed.
4382
03:32:02,000 --> 03:32:07,439
Government intelligence contracts are
4383
03:32:04,160 --> 03:32:10,160
classified by law, but industry analysts
4384
03:32:07,439 --> 03:32:13,920
estimate the first CIA contracts were
4385
03:32:10,160 --> 03:32:17,040
worth 5 to 10 million annually. The
4386
03:32:13,920 --> 03:32:20,239
product was called Palunteer Gotham. The
4387
03:32:17,040 --> 03:32:23,439
name itself was significant. Gotham, the
4388
03:32:20,239 --> 03:32:26,399
dark city that needs Batman. The city
4389
03:32:23,439 --> 03:32:28,960
that needs surveillance to fight crime.
4390
03:32:26,399 --> 03:32:30,960
Core technical capabilities.
4391
03:32:28,960 --> 03:32:33,680
Integrate data from dozens of
4392
03:32:30,960 --> 03:32:35,680
incompatible government databases that
4393
03:32:33,680 --> 03:32:38,399
were never designed to communicate with
4394
03:32:35,680 --> 03:32:41,040
each other. From hidden connections
4395
03:32:38,399 --> 03:32:44,960
between people, places, financial
4396
03:32:41,040 --> 03:32:47,600
transactions, communications metadata,
4397
03:32:44,960 --> 03:32:49,920
visualize networks of relationships in
4398
03:32:47,600 --> 03:32:51,840
ways human analysts could understand
4399
03:32:49,920 --> 03:32:54,160
intuitively.
4400
03:32:51,840 --> 03:32:56,399
Predict future behavior and likely
4401
03:32:54,160 --> 03:32:59,359
attack patterns based on historical
4402
03:32:56,399 --> 03:33:02,239
data. Specific use cases for
4403
03:32:59,359 --> 03:33:05,200
intelligence agencies. Track terrorist
4404
03:33:02,239 --> 03:33:07,200
cells across multiple countries. Map
4405
03:33:05,200 --> 03:33:09,359
drug trafficking routes from production
4406
03:33:07,200 --> 03:33:11,520
to distribution.
4407
03:33:09,359 --> 03:33:14,560
Identify money laundering networks
4408
03:33:11,520 --> 03:33:16,399
moving funds for organized crime.
4409
03:33:14,560 --> 03:33:19,200
Predict [music] insurgent attacks in
4410
03:33:16,399 --> 03:33:22,880
Iraq and Afghanistan based on pattern
4411
03:33:19,200 --> 03:33:26,640
recognition. It worked. The software
4412
03:33:22,880 --> 03:33:29,760
actually worked. By 2006, Palanteer
4413
03:33:26,640 --> 03:33:32,000
software was being actively used in Iraq
4414
03:33:29,760 --> 03:33:36,319
for [music] counterinsurgency operations
4415
03:33:32,000 --> 03:33:38,560
and in IED attack prediction.
4416
03:33:36,319 --> 03:33:41,520
Afghanistan for predicting Taliban
4417
03:33:38,560 --> 03:33:45,120
leadership networks. Langley, Virginia
4418
03:33:41,520 --> 03:33:47,840
at CIA headquarters for threat analysis.
4419
03:33:45,120 --> 03:33:52,040
FBI field officers nationwide for
4420
03:33:47,840 --> 03:33:52,040
domestic terrorism investigation.
4421
03:33:52,080 --> 03:33:58,239
Early revenue growth told the story of
4422
03:33:54,239 --> 03:34:01,040
Palunteers expanding reach. 2005
4423
03:33:58,239 --> 03:34:07,359
$3 billion in revenue. Government
4424
03:34:01,040 --> 03:34:12,800
contracts only. 2006 $10 million. 2007
4425
03:34:07,359 --> 03:34:17,439
$25 million. 2008 $50 million. First
4426
03:34:12,800 --> 03:34:23,920
commercial clients added 2010 $150
4427
03:34:17,439 --> 03:34:25,680
million. 2012 $400 million. By 2012,
4428
03:34:23,920 --> 03:34:27,840
Palanteer had achieved something
4429
03:34:25,680 --> 03:34:31,520
extremely rare for a high- growth
4430
03:34:27,840 --> 03:34:33,760
technology company. Profitability.
4431
03:34:31,520 --> 03:34:36,720
They were actually making money, not
4432
03:34:33,760 --> 03:34:39,840
just burning venture capital. Customer
4433
03:34:36,720 --> 03:34:43,840
revenue breakdown in 2012.
4434
03:34:39,840 --> 03:34:46,399
Government contracts, 60% of revenue,
4435
03:34:43,840 --> 03:34:50,880
$240 million.
4436
03:34:46,399 --> 03:34:53,600
Commercial clients, 40% of revenue, $160
4437
03:34:50,880 --> 03:34:57,600
million.
4438
03:34:53,600 --> 03:34:59,920
May the 1st, 2011. Palanteer Software
4439
03:34:57,600 --> 03:35:03,200
plays a role in the operation that kills
4440
03:34:59,920 --> 03:35:05,439
Osama bin Laden. A role that remains
4441
03:35:03,200 --> 03:35:08,640
partially classified, but has been
4442
03:35:05,439 --> 03:35:11,359
confirmed by multiple [music] sources.
4443
03:35:08,640 --> 03:35:13,680
How Palanteer contributed. Palanteer
4444
03:35:11,359 --> 03:35:16,080
Gotham integrated dozens of different
4445
03:35:13,680 --> 03:35:18,560
intelligence sources.
4446
03:35:16,080 --> 03:35:21,680
CIA human intelligence on career
4447
03:35:18,560 --> 03:35:23,840
networks. NSA signal intelligence
4448
03:35:21,680 --> 03:35:27,120
including [music] phone metadata and
4449
03:35:23,840 --> 03:35:30,319
email communications patterns.
4450
03:35:27,120 --> 03:35:33,120
National Geospatial Intelligence Agency
4451
03:35:30,319 --> 03:35:34,640
satellite imagery of potential compound
4452
03:35:33,120 --> 03:35:37,120
locations.
4453
03:35:34,640 --> 03:35:39,120
historical pattern analysis of previous
4454
03:35:37,120 --> 03:35:41,920
highv value target operations in
4455
03:35:39,120 --> 03:35:44,000
Pakistan.
4456
03:35:41,920 --> 03:35:46,319
The system identified patterns and
4457
03:35:44,000 --> 03:35:48,800
connections that human analysts working
4458
03:35:46,319 --> 03:35:52,080
with separate databases that did not
4459
03:35:48,800 --> 03:35:54,239
communicate had missed. It narrowed the
4460
03:35:52,080 --> 03:35:58,720
search area and helped confirm the
4461
03:35:54,239 --> 03:36:00,800
identity of the Abotabad compound.
4462
03:35:58,720 --> 03:36:03,760
When asked about Palanteer's role in the
4463
03:36:00,800 --> 03:36:07,040
bin Laden operation, Theo gave carefully
4464
03:36:03,760 --> 03:36:09,840
worded response. I cannot comment on
4465
03:36:07,040 --> 03:36:12,800
specific operations or specific clients
4466
03:36:09,840 --> 03:36:16,479
due to classification requirements, but
4467
03:36:12,800 --> 03:36:18,720
I will say this. Tools that help protect
4468
03:36:16,479 --> 03:36:21,840
American lives and help intelligence
4469
03:36:18,720 --> 03:36:25,279
professionals do their jobs better. That
4470
03:36:21,840 --> 03:36:27,520
is our mission.
4471
03:36:25,279 --> 03:36:29,920
This single operation, this single
4472
03:36:27,520 --> 03:36:32,479
success legitimized Palanteer's [music]
4473
03:36:29,920 --> 03:36:34,880
entire value proposition to the national
4474
03:36:32,479 --> 03:36:37,760
security establishment.
4475
03:36:34,880 --> 03:36:40,239
After bin Laden, the contracts poured
4476
03:36:37,760 --> 03:36:42,960
in.
4477
03:36:40,239 --> 03:36:45,920
After the bin Laden success, Palanteer's
4478
03:36:42,960 --> 03:36:50,479
government business exploded. Revenue
4479
03:36:45,920 --> 03:36:55,840
growth from 2012 to 2015.
4480
03:36:50,479 --> 03:36:59,279
2012, $400 million in revenue. 2013,
4481
03:36:55,840 --> 03:37:04,720
$600 million. 2014,
4482
03:36:59,279 --> 03:37:07,760
$900 million. 2015, $1.5 billion in
4483
03:37:04,720 --> 03:37:10,760
revenue. Major new contracts announced
4484
03:37:07,760 --> 03:37:10,760
publicly.
4485
03:37:12,160 --> 03:37:19,600
US Department of Defense, $222 million
4486
03:37:16,720 --> 03:37:21,359
for a 3-year data integration platform
4487
03:37:19,600 --> 03:37:25,359
contract.
4488
03:37:21,359 --> 03:37:27,750
US Army, $800 million for comprehensive
4489
03:37:25,359 --> 03:37:30,640
data platform modernization across
4490
03:37:27,750 --> 03:37:34,800
[music] all Army systems,
4491
03:37:30,640 --> 03:37:37,439
US Special Operations Command, $444
4492
03:37:34,800 --> 03:37:39,200
million for targeting and intelligence
4493
03:37:37,439 --> 03:37:42,720
fusion,
4494
03:37:39,200 --> 03:37:45,040
Department of Homeland Security, $240
4495
03:37:42,720 --> 03:37:48,160
million for border security and
4496
03:37:45,040 --> 03:37:50,560
immigration enforcement systems.
4497
03:37:48,160 --> 03:37:53,200
Palanteer had become the single most
4498
03:37:50,560 --> 03:37:55,040
important software company in the entire
4499
03:37:53,200 --> 03:37:56,640
US defense and intelligence
4500
03:37:55,040 --> 03:37:58,960
establishment,
4501
03:37:56,640 --> 03:38:02,080
more important than traditional defense
4502
03:37:58,960 --> 03:38:04,160
contractors, more embedded in classified
4503
03:38:02,080 --> 03:38:06,720
operations.
4504
03:38:04,160 --> 03:38:08,360
Simultaneously, Palanteer launched a
4505
03:38:06,720 --> 03:38:10,720
commercial product called Palunteer
4506
03:38:08,360 --> 03:38:13,439
[music] Foundry for private sector
4507
03:38:10,720 --> 03:38:16,399
clients. The sales pitch to corporate
4508
03:38:13,439 --> 03:38:20,399
America. Your company has exactly the
4509
03:38:16,399 --> 03:38:23,279
same problem as the CIA. Too much data,
4510
03:38:20,399 --> 03:38:26,000
too many incompatible systems, not
4511
03:38:23,279 --> 03:38:28,640
enough insight. We can help you find the
4512
03:38:26,000 --> 03:38:30,800
patterns you are missing. Major
4513
03:38:28,640 --> 03:38:34,319
commercial clients and estimated
4514
03:38:30,800 --> 03:38:39,200
contract values.
4515
03:38:34,319 --> 03:38:40,960
JP Morgan Chase over $100 million fraud
4516
03:38:39,200 --> 03:38:44,319
detection and financial crime
4517
03:38:40,960 --> 03:38:47,200
prevention. Morgan Stanley over $50
4518
03:38:44,319 --> 03:38:52,000
million risk management and regulatory
4519
03:38:47,200 --> 03:38:54,160
compliance. Airbus over $75 million
4520
03:38:52,000 --> 03:38:56,880
supply chain optimization and
4521
03:38:54,160 --> 03:39:01,040
manufacturing analytics.
4522
03:38:56,880 --> 03:39:03,680
Merc Pharmaceuticals over $60 million
4523
03:39:01,040 --> 03:39:06,560
drug discovery analytics and clinical
4524
03:39:03,680 --> 03:39:11,120
trial data integration.
4525
03:39:06,560 --> 03:39:14,960
BP over $80 million oil field production
4526
03:39:11,120 --> 03:39:18,239
optimization and predictive maintenance.
4527
03:39:14,960 --> 03:39:20,080
Commercial revenue growth from 2015 to
4528
03:39:18,239 --> 03:39:23,359
2020. [music]
4529
03:39:20,080 --> 03:39:26,880
In 2015, they got $600 million
4530
03:39:23,359 --> 03:39:29,840
commercial [music] revenue. By 2016, the
4531
03:39:26,880 --> 03:39:33,680
number was around $800 billion.
4532
03:39:29,840 --> 03:39:35,920
In 2017, they reached $1.1 billion in
4533
03:39:33,680 --> 03:39:40,800
commercial revenue, and it became their
4534
03:39:35,920 --> 03:39:43,840
peak year. 2018 made them hit the $750
4535
03:39:40,800 --> 03:39:47,319
million mark, a temporary decline due to
4536
03:39:43,840 --> 03:39:47,319
customer churn.
4537
03:39:47,359 --> 03:39:53,120
In 2019, revenue was around $745
4538
03:39:51,520 --> 03:39:57,040
million,
4539
03:39:53,120 --> 03:40:01,040
and by 2020, they reached $1.1 billion.
4540
03:39:57,040 --> 03:40:04,160
Again, this recovery was driven by COVID
4541
03:40:01,040 --> 03:40:06,319
analytics contracts. Palanteer had
4542
03:40:04,160 --> 03:40:09,680
created a business model with two
4543
03:40:06,319 --> 03:40:11,520
enormous locked in customer bases, the
4544
03:40:09,680 --> 03:40:15,720
US government and the largest
4545
03:40:11,520 --> 03:40:15,720
corporations in the world.
4546
03:40:17,279 --> 03:40:22,399
But Palanteer's work, especially for
4547
03:40:19,600 --> 03:40:25,840
government agencies, attracted intense
4548
03:40:22,399 --> 03:40:28,800
controversy and moral criticism.
4549
03:40:25,840 --> 03:40:32,880
In 2019, they secured a contract with
4550
03:40:28,800 --> 03:40:35,439
ICE for $49 million. The purpose of the
4551
03:40:32,880 --> 03:40:37,840
contract was enforcement and removal
4552
03:40:35,439 --> 03:40:40,720
operations systems,
4553
03:40:37,840 --> 03:40:43,200
meaning a software used to identify,
4554
03:40:40,720 --> 03:40:46,000
track, and process undocumented
4555
03:40:43,200 --> 03:40:48,160
immigrants for deportation.
4556
03:40:46,000 --> 03:40:50,803
This project came with a controversy
4557
03:40:48,160 --> 03:40:52,800
attached. The software was used during
4558
03:40:50,803 --> 03:40:55,520
[music] the family separation policy at
4559
03:40:52,800 --> 03:40:59,120
the southern border. Children separated
4560
03:40:55,520 --> 03:41:01,279
from their parents, families torn apart.
4561
03:40:59,120 --> 03:41:04,000
Palanteer Software helped make it
4562
03:41:01,279 --> 03:41:06,080
operationally possible. Hundreds of
4563
03:41:04,000 --> 03:41:08,239
Palunteer employees signed an [music]
4564
03:41:06,080 --> 03:41:12,160
internal letter demanding the company
4565
03:41:08,239 --> 03:41:14,399
cancel the ICE contract.
4566
03:41:12,160 --> 03:41:17,439
They argued the company was enabling
4567
03:41:14,399 --> 03:41:21,200
human rights abuses. The Karp's
4568
03:41:17,439 --> 03:41:23,200
response, absolute refusal. The contract
4569
03:41:21,200 --> 03:41:25,840
would continue.
4570
03:41:23,200 --> 03:41:28,080
Alex Cart gave a public statement saying
4571
03:41:25,840 --> 03:41:31,680
that they had chosen sides and that the
4572
03:41:28,080 --> 03:41:34,080
company supported American institutions.
4573
03:41:31,680 --> 03:41:37,439
But this was not the only controversy
4574
03:41:34,080 --> 03:41:40,000
Palunteer has faced. Palanteer worked
4575
03:41:37,439 --> 03:41:42,960
alongside [music] the NYPD with a
4576
03:41:40,000 --> 03:41:47,920
contract estimated between 50 and $100
4577
03:41:42,960 --> 03:41:50,239
billion. The mission predictive policy.
4578
03:41:47,920 --> 03:41:52,880
They were asked to use historical crime
4579
03:41:50,239 --> 03:41:55,760
data to predict where future crimes will
4580
03:41:52,880 --> 03:41:58,479
occur and who is likely to commit them.
4581
03:41:55,760 --> 03:42:01,359
The controversy civil rights groups
4582
03:41:58,479 --> 03:42:04,160
argued that system perpetuated racial
4583
03:42:01,359 --> 03:42:07,120
bias. Minority neighborhoods were
4584
03:42:04,160 --> 03:42:09,359
flagged as high risk. Innocent people
4585
03:42:07,120 --> 03:42:12,640
were put under surveillance based on
4586
03:42:09,359 --> 03:42:16,239
algorithmic predictions.
4587
03:42:12,640 --> 03:42:18,720
Joe Londale, Palunteer co-founder, had
4588
03:42:16,239 --> 03:42:20,319
made a personal investment in Cambridge
4589
03:42:18,720 --> 03:42:22,720
Analytica.
4590
03:42:20,319 --> 03:42:25,120
Multiple Palanteer employees on their
4591
03:42:22,720 --> 03:42:29,640
own time helped Cambridge Analytica
4592
03:42:25,120 --> 03:42:29,640
build data integration models.
4593
03:42:29,760 --> 03:42:34,800
Both companies use similar approaches to
4594
03:42:32,479 --> 03:42:36,399
data harvesting and psychological
4595
03:42:34,800 --> 03:42:38,239
profiling.
4596
03:42:36,399 --> 03:42:41,040
When the connection was exposed by
4597
03:42:38,239 --> 03:42:44,080
journalists, Palanteer claimed there was
4598
03:42:41,040 --> 03:42:47,439
no institutional relationship, just
4599
03:42:44,080 --> 03:42:49,120
coincidental personal connections.
4600
03:42:47,439 --> 03:42:52,080
But the damage [music] to Palanteer's
4601
03:42:49,120 --> 03:42:53,840
reputation was done. The had built the
4602
03:42:52,080 --> 03:42:56,160
panopticon.
4603
03:42:53,840 --> 03:42:58,640
The allseeing eye of corporate and
4604
03:42:56,160 --> 03:43:02,080
government surveillance.
4605
03:42:58,640 --> 03:43:05,279
September the 30th, 2020.
4606
03:43:02,080 --> 03:43:07,200
After 17 years as a private company, one
4607
03:43:05,279 --> 03:43:09,920
of the longest periods of private
4608
03:43:07,200 --> 03:43:12,880
operation for any major tech company,
4609
03:43:09,920 --> 03:43:15,920
Palanteer finally goes public through a
4610
03:43:12,880 --> 03:43:18,800
direct listing.
4611
03:43:15,920 --> 03:43:21,680
They went public at $10 per share and
4612
03:43:18,800 --> 03:43:25,279
their market capitalization at market
4613
03:43:21,680 --> 03:43:28,640
open was $16 billion.
4614
03:43:25,279 --> 03:43:30,560
By the first day, shares were down 5%.
4615
03:43:28,640 --> 03:43:32,080
The stock was initially a
4616
03:43:30,560 --> 03:43:34,160
disappointment.
4617
03:43:32,080 --> 03:43:36,160
Investors were skeptical of the business
4618
03:43:34,160 --> 03:43:38,800
model, worried about customer
4619
03:43:36,160 --> 03:43:40,880
concentration, concerned about the
4620
03:43:38,800 --> 03:43:44,000
controversy.
4621
03:43:40,880 --> 03:43:47,040
But then COVID 19 created massive new
4622
03:43:44,000 --> 03:43:50,960
demand for Palanteer's capabilities.
4623
03:43:47,040 --> 03:43:53,359
2020 to 2021, Palanteer wins enormous
4624
03:43:50,960 --> 03:43:56,560
pandemic related government contracts
4625
03:43:53,359 --> 03:43:58,640
with governments across the world. The
4626
03:43:56,560 --> 03:44:01,920
pandemic proved that governments needed
4627
03:43:58,640 --> 03:44:04,960
Palanteer and the market responded.
4628
03:44:01,920 --> 03:44:10,880
By late 2021, Palanteer stock had
4629
03:44:04,960 --> 03:44:13,359
exploded. $29 per share at 190% gain
4630
03:44:10,880 --> 03:44:15,040
from the direct listing price. Market
4631
03:44:13,359 --> 03:44:18,600
capitalization
4632
03:44:15,040 --> 03:44:18,600
$60 billion.
4633
03:44:19,760 --> 03:44:26,720
Peter Theal stake approximately 7%
4634
03:44:23,359 --> 03:44:30,640
ownership worth 4.2 2 billion at the
4635
03:44:26,720 --> 03:44:33,760
peak. 2022, the tech crash hits
4636
03:44:30,640 --> 03:44:37,760
Palanteer brutally hard. Stock prices
4637
03:44:33,760 --> 03:44:40,960
crash to $6 per share, down 8% from the
4638
03:44:37,760 --> 03:44:43,120
peak. Market cap collapses to $13
4639
03:44:40,960 --> 03:44:45,199
billion.
4640
03:44:43,120 --> 03:44:51,040
The paper wealth from Palanteer
4641
03:44:45,199 --> 03:44:54,399
evaporates. Billions gone. 2023 to 2024,
4642
03:44:51,040 --> 03:44:56,800
the AI boom creates new opportunity.
4643
03:44:54,399 --> 03:44:59,760
Palanteer markets itself as the AI
4644
03:44:56,800 --> 03:45:02,720
platform for governments and enterprises
4645
03:44:59,760 --> 03:45:07,439
and they get major new contract wins.
4646
03:45:02,720 --> 03:45:09,199
The US Army invested $463 million for AI
4647
03:45:07,439 --> 03:45:12,479
powered battlefield analytics [music]
4648
03:45:09,199 --> 03:45:14,960
and decision support systems.
4649
03:45:12,479 --> 03:45:19,680
Palanteer stock recovered
4650
03:45:14,960 --> 03:45:22,319
25 to 30 per share by 2024.
4651
03:45:19,680 --> 03:45:25,279
As of 2024, Peter Theel's current
4652
03:45:22,319 --> 03:45:27,760
Palanteer holdings are approximately 7%
4653
03:45:25,279 --> 03:45:31,840
of all shares with a current value
4654
03:45:27,760 --> 03:45:36,439
ranging from 3.8 to $4.5 billion
4655
03:45:31,840 --> 03:45:36,439
depending on daily stock price.
4656
03:45:38,080 --> 03:45:44,640
This makes Palunteer Field's single
4657
03:45:41,199 --> 03:45:47,920
largest source of personal wealth. In
4658
03:45:44,640 --> 03:45:50,000
2024, Palanteer's financial performance
4659
03:45:47,920 --> 03:45:52,800
was divided between government and
4660
03:45:50,000 --> 03:45:57,600
commercial revenue. The company's net
4661
03:45:52,800 --> 03:45:59,439
income was $2.5 billion annually. And as
4662
03:45:57,600 --> 03:46:01,359
big as the number is, this might
4663
03:45:59,439 --> 03:46:03,840
represent a future problem for the
4664
03:46:01,359 --> 03:46:06,000
company. If government budget cuts
4665
03:46:03,840 --> 03:46:07,520
happen, Palanteer is extremely
4666
03:46:06,000 --> 03:46:09,760
vulnerable.
4667
03:46:07,520 --> 03:46:13,359
Their entire business model depends on
4668
03:46:09,760 --> 03:46:16,560
continued government spending. Here is
4669
03:46:13,359 --> 03:46:18,160
Peter Theel's fundamental contradiction.
4670
03:46:16,560 --> 03:46:20,319
The paradox at the [music] heart of
4671
03:46:18,160 --> 03:46:22,800
everything he has built. He claims to be
4672
03:46:20,319 --> 03:46:26,000
a libertarian who values individual
4673
03:46:22,800 --> 03:46:27,680
freedom above all else. A man who
4674
03:46:26,000 --> 03:46:30,080
believes government power should be
4675
03:46:27,680 --> 03:46:33,279
minimal. A man who wrote that freedom
4676
03:46:30,080 --> 03:46:35,840
and democracy are incompatible.
4677
03:46:33,279 --> 03:46:38,560
Yet, he built the most powerful private
4678
03:46:35,840 --> 03:46:41,279
surveillance technology company in human
4679
03:46:38,560 --> 03:46:43,040
history. A company that gives [music]
4680
03:46:41,279 --> 03:46:46,479
governments and corporations
4681
03:46:43,040 --> 03:46:48,437
unprecedented ability to monitor, track,
4682
03:46:46,479 --> 03:46:49,760
predict, and control human behavior.
4683
03:46:48,437 --> 03:46:52,239
[music]
4684
03:46:49,760 --> 03:46:55,120
Palunteers technical capabilities
4685
03:46:52,239 --> 03:46:57,520
include realtime tracking of individuals
4686
03:46:55,120 --> 03:47:00,520
across multiple data sources and
4687
03:46:57,520 --> 03:47:00,520
databases.
4688
03:47:01,120 --> 03:47:05,760
Predictive behavioral modeling that
4689
03:47:03,760 --> 03:47:09,040
forecasts what people will do before
4690
03:47:05,760 --> 03:47:10,800
they do it. Network analysis that maps
4691
03:47:09,040 --> 03:47:14,239
every [music] person you have ever
4692
03:47:10,800 --> 03:47:15,760
contacted through any medium. Complete
4693
03:47:14,239 --> 03:47:18,880
integration of financial [music]
4694
03:47:15,760 --> 03:47:21,199
records, communication metadata,
4695
03:47:18,880 --> 03:47:24,399
location history, and social
4696
03:47:21,199 --> 03:47:26,319
relationship data into a single unified
4697
03:47:24,399 --> 03:47:28,880
profile. [music]
4698
03:47:26,319 --> 03:47:31,012
Field's defense of this contradiction
4699
03:47:28,880 --> 03:47:33,359
was explaining that the alternative to
4700
03:47:31,012 --> 03:47:35,439
[music] Palanteer is not no
4701
03:47:33,359 --> 03:47:38,000
surveillance.
4702
03:47:35,439 --> 03:47:40,239
The alternative is worse surveillance
4703
03:47:38,000 --> 03:47:43,279
performed by incompetent government
4704
03:47:40,239 --> 03:47:47,319
bureaucrats using decades old technology
4705
03:47:43,279 --> 03:47:47,319
that does not work properly.
4706
03:47:48,880 --> 03:47:55,359
The critics's response was obvious. They
4707
03:47:51,840 --> 03:47:59,520
told Theo he had built the panopticon,
4708
03:47:55,359 --> 03:48:01,600
the architecture of total surveillance.
4709
03:47:59,520 --> 03:48:03,920
A system allowing governments around the
4710
03:48:01,600 --> 03:48:06,800
world to use their citizens information
4711
03:48:03,920 --> 03:48:09,359
to control them, not a system to protect
4712
03:48:06,800 --> 03:48:11,680
them, said the critics.
4713
03:48:09,359 --> 03:48:14,479
Palanteer now operates in dozens of
4714
03:48:11,680 --> 03:48:17,359
countries worldwide. The United States,
4715
03:48:14,479 --> 03:48:20,239
the United Kingdom, Germany, France,
4716
03:48:17,359 --> 03:48:22,399
Australia, and [music] even Japan.
4717
03:48:20,239 --> 03:48:25,439
The company has some controversial
4718
03:48:22,399 --> 03:48:28,399
international clients, some confirmed,
4719
03:48:25,439 --> 03:48:32,000
some alleged, but the total estimated
4720
03:48:28,399 --> 03:48:36,399
value of all global contracts lifetime,
4721
03:48:32,000 --> 03:48:39,199
over $10 billion in contract value.
4722
03:48:36,399 --> 03:48:42,319
Palanteer is Peter Theel's most
4723
03:48:39,199 --> 03:48:45,439
important company. Not because of its
4724
03:48:42,319 --> 03:48:47,840
valuation, though that is substantial.
4725
03:48:45,439 --> 03:48:51,520
Not because of its revenue, though that
4726
03:48:47,840 --> 03:48:53,840
is significant. Palanteer is important
4727
03:48:51,520 --> 03:48:56,800
because it reveals the truth about
4728
03:48:53,840 --> 03:48:59,439
Theo's worldview. It is the bridge
4729
03:48:56,800 --> 03:49:03,120
between his libertarian philosophy and
4730
03:48:59,439 --> 03:49:04,678
his authoritarian reality. He claims to
4731
03:49:03,120 --> 03:49:06,160
want freedom from government control.
4732
03:49:04,678 --> 03:49:08,800
[music]
4733
03:49:06,160 --> 03:49:11,040
But Palanteer gives governments
4734
03:49:08,800 --> 03:49:13,600
unprecedented control over their
4735
03:49:11,040 --> 03:49:16,640
citizens. The resolution of this
4736
03:49:13,600 --> 03:49:20,000
apparent contradiction. Peter the
4737
03:49:16,640 --> 03:49:24,080
believes in freedom for the elite and
4738
03:49:20,000 --> 03:49:26,399
surveillance for everyone else.
4739
03:49:24,080 --> 03:49:29,600
In his vision of the world, there are
4740
03:49:26,399 --> 03:49:31,760
rulers and there are the ruled. There
4741
03:49:29,600 --> 03:49:34,479
are the people who make the decisions
4742
03:49:31,760 --> 03:49:37,040
and the [music] people who are managed.
4743
03:49:34,479 --> 03:49:40,399
Palanteer is the enforcement mechanism
4744
03:49:37,040 --> 03:49:43,680
for that hierarchy. The technology that
4745
03:49:40,399 --> 03:49:45,920
ensures the rulers can see everything.
4746
03:49:43,680 --> 03:49:48,960
the system that makes resistance
4747
03:49:45,920 --> 03:49:52,080
impossible because privacy no longer
4748
03:49:48,960 --> 03:49:55,359
exists. And Peter Theal sits at the
4749
03:49:52,080 --> 03:49:58,479
center of that eye, watching the world,
4750
03:49:55,359 --> 03:50:02,199
seeing everything. The architect of the
4751
03:49:58,479 --> 03:50:02,199
surveillance state.
4752
03:50:04,640 --> 03:50:10,479
In 2016, Peter Theal made an investment
4753
03:50:08,399 --> 03:50:13,508
that every other major technology
4754
03:50:10,479 --> 03:50:13,508
investor avoided. [music]
4755
03:50:13,680 --> 03:50:18,319
While his peers in Silicon Valley were
4756
03:50:16,160 --> 03:50:22,080
contributing millions to the opposing
4757
03:50:18,319 --> 03:50:24,800
campaign, Theel wrote a check for $1.25
4758
03:50:22,080 --> 03:50:26,319
million to Donald Trump's presidential
4759
03:50:24,800 --> 03:50:29,279
campaign.
4760
03:50:26,319 --> 03:50:32,720
This was not ideology. This was
4761
03:50:29,279 --> 03:50:35,040
portfolio diversification.
4762
03:50:32,720 --> 03:50:37,840
Feel [music] has always invested in
4763
03:50:35,040 --> 03:50:42,080
contrarian positions. When everyone
4764
03:50:37,840 --> 03:50:45,199
zigs, he zags. When consensus forms in
4765
03:50:42,080 --> 03:50:48,640
one direction, he looks for asymmetric
4766
03:50:45,199 --> 03:50:51,040
opportunities in the other. The 2006
4767
03:50:48,640 --> 03:50:53,120
donation gave him something money
4768
03:50:51,040 --> 03:50:56,640
usually cannot buy in Silicon [music]
4769
03:50:53,120 --> 03:51:00,319
Valley. Direct access to executive
4770
03:50:56,640 --> 03:51:02,880
power. The return on that $1.25 $25
4771
03:51:00,319 --> 03:51:05,439
million investment,
4772
03:51:02,880 --> 03:51:08,880
a seat on the presidential transition
4773
03:51:05,439 --> 03:51:12,080
team, input on federal technology
4774
03:51:08,880 --> 03:51:14,640
policy, direct communication channels to
4775
03:51:12,080 --> 03:51:18,399
the White [music] House, credibility as
4776
03:51:14,640 --> 03:51:21,040
a Washington power broker,
4777
03:51:18,399 --> 03:51:22,800
and most measurably, Palanteer's
4778
03:51:21,040 --> 03:51:26,239
government contracts increased
4779
03:51:22,800 --> 03:51:28,560
substantially during this period.
4780
03:51:26,239 --> 03:51:31,840
But the's most significant political
4781
03:51:28,560 --> 03:51:33,359
investments came in the 2022 midterm
4782
03:51:31,840 --> 03:51:37,120
elections.
4783
03:51:33,359 --> 03:51:40,640
Two candidates, both former employees,
4784
03:51:37,120 --> 03:51:42,560
both running for United States Senate.
4785
03:51:40,640 --> 03:51:45,439
The financial commitment was
4786
03:51:42,560 --> 03:51:47,840
unprecedented in scale.
4787
03:51:45,439 --> 03:51:50,000
Vance had worked at Theel's venture
4788
03:51:47,840 --> 03:51:53,040
capital firm before writing his [music]
4789
03:51:50,000 --> 03:51:55,120
best-selling memoir. Fields total
4790
03:51:53,040 --> 03:52:00,080
financial commitment
4791
03:51:55,120 --> 03:52:02,640
direct campaign contribution $15 million
4792
03:52:00,080 --> 03:52:07,760
super PAC [music] expenditures $5
4793
03:52:02,640 --> 03:52:10,479
million combined investment $20 million.
4794
03:52:07,760 --> 03:52:12,800
This set a [music] record as the largest
4795
03:52:10,479 --> 03:52:15,359
single donor contribution to an
4796
03:52:12,800 --> 03:52:19,439
individual Senate campaign in American
4797
03:52:15,359 --> 03:52:21,520
history. The outcome Vance won by six
4798
03:52:19,439 --> 03:52:24,560
percentage points.
4799
03:52:21,520 --> 03:52:26,960
Masters had worked directly for Theel as
4800
03:52:24,560 --> 03:52:28,479
chief operating officer at Theel
4801
03:52:26,960 --> 03:52:30,479
Capital.
4802
03:52:28,479 --> 03:52:32,800
Theel's financial commitment to his
4803
03:52:30,479 --> 03:52:36,640
campaign was a combined investment of
4804
03:52:32,800 --> 03:52:39,760
$20 million. But unlike Vance, Masters
4805
03:52:36,640 --> 03:52:43,359
lost by 5 percentage points.
4806
03:52:39,760 --> 03:52:47,279
The total 2022 midterm investment was
4807
03:52:43,359 --> 03:52:49,120
over $40 million in two Senate races.
4808
03:52:47,279 --> 03:52:51,359
two different candidates that would have
4809
03:52:49,120 --> 03:52:53,199
allowed him to be in direct touch with
4810
03:52:51,359 --> 03:52:56,239
power at different chambers [music] and
4811
03:52:53,199 --> 03:52:58,319
stages. For context, the average
4812
03:52:56,239 --> 03:53:01,840
competitive Senate race costs
4813
03:52:58,319 --> 03:53:04,411
approximately $10 million total. Peter
4814
03:53:01,840 --> 03:53:07,880
Theal invested four times that amount on
4815
03:53:04,411 --> 03:53:07,880
[music] two races.
4816
03:53:08,479 --> 03:53:15,199
It's July 2024. JD Vance is selected as
4817
03:53:13,040 --> 03:53:18,080
the Republican vice presidential
4818
03:53:15,199 --> 03:53:20,720
candidate. From a pure investment
4819
03:53:18,080 --> 03:53:23,120
analysis perspective, this transforms
4820
03:53:20,720 --> 03:53:25,840
the return profile and Theo's $20
4821
03:53:23,120 --> 03:53:28,239
million commitment. He has considered
4822
03:53:25,840 --> 03:53:32,399
the potential financial implications if
4823
03:53:28,239 --> 03:53:34,960
this ticket wins and he gets access to
4824
03:53:32,399 --> 03:53:38,319
executive branch decisionmaking for 8
4825
03:53:34,960 --> 03:53:41,760
years. influence over federal contract
4826
03:53:38,319 --> 03:53:44,720
allocation across multiple agencies.
4827
03:53:41,760 --> 03:53:48,960
Input on technology regulation affecting
4828
03:53:44,720 --> 03:53:51,279
the portfolio [music] companies.
4829
03:53:48,960 --> 03:53:53,359
If we consider what's the estimated
4830
03:53:51,279 --> 03:53:56,720
return on investment for Palanteer's
4831
03:53:53,359 --> 03:53:58,960
government business, what we see is
4832
03:53:56,720 --> 03:54:01,760
current annual government revenue of
4833
03:53:58,960 --> 03:54:04,479
$1.5 billion.
4834
03:54:01,760 --> 03:54:07,760
potential additional contract value over
4835
03:54:04,479 --> 03:54:09,966
eight years conservatively 5 to10
4836
03:54:07,760 --> 03:54:09,966
billion [music]
4837
03:54:10,800 --> 03:54:17,439
and other defense companies in the
4838
03:54:13,920 --> 03:54:19,120
network potential 3 to5 billion in
4839
03:54:17,439 --> 03:54:20,640
contracts
4840
03:54:19,120 --> 03:54:23,120
regulatory [music] treatment of
4841
03:54:20,640 --> 03:54:28,120
cryptocurrency holdings value
4842
03:54:23,120 --> 03:54:28,120
potentially in tens of billions.
4843
03:54:29,840 --> 03:54:35,920
The theoretical return of those 20
4844
03:54:32,399 --> 03:54:39,279
million invested is potentially 15 to 20
4845
03:54:35,920 --> 03:54:43,279
billion captured across the portfolio.
4846
03:54:39,279 --> 03:54:46,960
That represents a potential of 750 to
4847
03:54:43,279 --> 03:54:49,279
1,000 times return. By comparison,
4848
03:54:46,960 --> 03:54:51,600
Theel's Facebook investment returned
4849
03:54:49,279 --> 03:54:54,080
2,000 times.
4850
03:54:51,600 --> 03:54:59,439
To sum it up, the complete political
4851
03:54:54,080 --> 03:55:01,760
spending of the from 2016 to 2022 is 70
4852
03:54:59,439 --> 03:55:04,319
to $80 million.
4853
03:55:01,760 --> 03:55:07,199
For context, Amazon spends 20 [music]
4854
03:55:04,319 --> 03:55:10,239
million annually on lobbying. Meta
4855
03:55:07,199 --> 03:55:13,040
spends 20 million annual on lobbying.
4856
03:55:10,239 --> 03:55:16,720
Google spends 12 million annually on
4857
03:55:13,040 --> 03:55:18,720
lobbying. Field's approach is different.
4858
03:55:16,720 --> 03:55:20,652
Rather than ongoing lobbying
4859
03:55:18,720 --> 03:55:21,279
expenditures, he makes concentrated
4860
03:55:20,652 --> 03:55:24,080
[music]
4861
03:55:21,279 --> 03:55:27,279
investments in individual candidates who
4862
03:55:24,080 --> 03:55:30,279
potentially provide access for years or
4863
03:55:27,279 --> 03:55:30,279
decades.
4864
03:55:30,319 --> 03:55:35,359
It is the venture capital model applied
4865
03:55:32,800 --> 03:55:38,319
to politics. Make early stage
4866
03:55:35,359 --> 03:55:40,800
investments in promising candidates.
4867
03:55:38,319 --> 03:55:44,080
Provide sufficient capital to help them
4868
03:55:40,800 --> 03:55:46,640
win. Capture value through long-term
4869
03:55:44,080 --> 03:55:49,279
relationships and access.
4870
03:55:46,640 --> 03:55:52,080
The candidates Theel has supported now
4871
03:55:49,279 --> 03:55:54,560
serve on key committees.
4872
03:55:52,080 --> 03:55:56,160
Technology regulation, defense
4873
03:55:54,560 --> 03:55:59,040
appropriations,
4874
03:55:56,160 --> 03:56:01,840
intelligence oversight, banking and
4875
03:55:59,040 --> 03:56:04,080
financial services.
4876
03:56:01,840 --> 03:56:06,560
Precisely the committees that oversee
4877
03:56:04,080 --> 03:56:08,960
industries where the has billions
4878
03:56:06,560 --> 03:56:11,760
invested and where he can use some
4879
03:56:08,960 --> 03:56:14,399
privileged information. [music]
4880
03:56:11,760 --> 03:56:17,600
Is political investment a good use of
4881
03:56:14,399 --> 03:56:19,120
capital? The mathematics suggest [music]
4882
03:56:17,600 --> 03:56:22,319
yes
4883
03:56:19,120 --> 03:56:25,840
70 to 80 million represents less than 1%
4884
03:56:22,319 --> 03:56:28,080
of the's net worth. The potential return
4885
03:56:25,840 --> 03:56:30,960
if facets translate to favorable
4886
03:56:28,080 --> 03:56:34,479
treatment for portfolio companies could
4887
03:56:30,960 --> 03:56:36,880
be worth billions. Even with a 50%
4888
03:56:34,479 --> 03:56:39,760
success rate, the expected value is
4889
03:56:36,880 --> 03:56:42,880
positive by orders of magnitude.
4890
03:56:39,760 --> 03:56:46,880
Investment 70 to 80 million over 8
4891
03:56:42,880 --> 03:56:50,160
years. Potential value captured 15 to 30
4892
03:56:46,880 --> 03:56:56,640
billion across portfolio. Expected
4893
03:56:50,160 --> 03:56:59,199
return 200 to 400 times invested capital
4894
03:56:56,640 --> 03:57:02,399
that rivals the best venture capital
4895
03:56:59,199 --> 03:57:05,680
returns in history. Peter Theel is not
4896
03:57:02,399 --> 03:57:08,680
playing politics. He is optimizing his
4897
03:57:05,680 --> 03:57:08,680
portfolio.
4898
03:57:10,000 --> 03:57:16,000
Chapter 7. The final exit.
4899
03:57:13,840 --> 03:57:18,720
Peter Theal has spent his life betting
4900
03:57:16,000 --> 03:57:21,279
on the future, building it, funding it,
4901
03:57:18,720 --> 03:57:25,199
accelerating it. But there is one
4902
03:57:21,279 --> 03:57:30,000
frontier he refuses to accept as fixed.
4903
03:57:25,199 --> 03:57:32,560
Death. To him, mortality is not destiny.
4904
03:57:30,000 --> 03:57:34,880
It is an engineering problem waiting for
4905
03:57:32,560 --> 03:57:37,040
a breakthrough. Unlike every other
4906
03:57:34,880 --> 03:57:40,239
system he has challenged, he believes
4907
03:57:37,040 --> 03:57:42,880
this one too can be redesigned.
4908
03:57:40,239 --> 03:57:45,520
While others plan for retirement, Theel
4909
03:57:42,880 --> 03:57:48,239
funds longevity [music] labs. While
4910
03:57:45,520 --> 03:57:51,304
governments plan for decades, he thinks
4911
03:57:48,239 --> 03:57:53,199
in centuries. If time is the ultimate
4912
03:57:51,304 --> 03:57:56,720
[music] constraint on power, then
4913
03:57:53,199 --> 03:57:58,960
extending life is the ultimate leverage.
4914
03:57:56,720 --> 03:58:02,880
At the edge of the world, he built a
4915
03:57:58,960 --> 03:58:07,439
refuge. Far from political centers, far
4916
03:58:02,880 --> 03:58:09,920
from social unrest, close only to time.
4917
03:58:07,439 --> 03:58:11,920
In Silicon Valley, there is a dark joke
4918
03:58:09,920 --> 03:58:14,080
shared quietly [music] among founders
4919
03:58:11,920 --> 03:58:16,239
and investors.
4920
03:58:14,080 --> 03:58:18,720
How many billionaires does it take to
4921
03:58:16,239 --> 03:58:21,760
buy a country?
4922
03:58:18,720 --> 03:58:25,160
Just one, if he is smart enough to get
4923
03:58:21,760 --> 03:58:25,160
there first.
4924
03:58:25,520 --> 03:58:30,160
He invested in digital currencies that
4925
03:58:27,840 --> 03:58:32,000
governments cannot print. In
4926
03:58:30,160 --> 03:58:34,560
surveillance systems that see [music]
4927
03:58:32,000 --> 03:58:37,600
what others cannot. In political
4928
03:58:34,560 --> 03:58:40,239
candidates who might shape the rules. In
4929
03:58:37,600 --> 03:58:43,920
technologies that might outlive biology
4930
03:58:40,239 --> 03:58:47,560
itself. Not to save the world, to
4931
03:58:43,920 --> 03:58:47,560
outlast it.
4932
03:58:49,520 --> 03:58:55,040
What began as a contingency plan for a
4933
03:58:52,160 --> 03:58:57,840
few has become an unspoken strategy
4934
03:58:55,040 --> 03:59:00,239
among the ultra wealthy.
4935
03:58:57,840 --> 03:59:02,800
When the New Zealand citizenship story
4936
03:59:00,239 --> 03:59:06,399
became public, one of Theo's closest
4937
03:59:02,800 --> 03:59:09,199
peers, Samman, put it bluntly.
4938
03:59:06,399 --> 03:59:12,160
If things go really wrong, I'm flying to
4939
03:59:09,199 --> 03:59:15,359
Peter's place.
4940
03:59:12,160 --> 03:59:18,560
Some men try to make history. Peter
4941
03:59:15,359 --> 03:59:21,359
Theel is trying to escape it.
4942
03:59:18,560 --> 03:59:26,680
And if the future breaks, he intends to
4943
03:59:21,359 --> 03:59:26,680
be standing somewhere it cannot reach.
4944
04:00:52,399 --> 04:00:57,439
Most people see this and think culture.
4945
04:00:55,439 --> 04:00:59,840
They see a charming eco-friendly
4946
04:00:57,439 --> 04:01:02,640
tradition.
4947
04:00:59,840 --> 04:01:05,120
But look closer. This isn't just people
4948
04:01:02,640 --> 04:01:07,600
liking to pedal. What you were watching
4949
04:01:05,120 --> 04:01:09,439
is a highfrequency, low friction
4950
04:01:07,600 --> 04:01:11,279
economic machine.
4951
04:01:09,439 --> 04:01:13,120
>> Ultimately, private car ownership is
4952
04:01:11,279 --> 04:01:14,880
going to become [music] obsolete. Cities
4953
04:01:13,120 --> 04:01:16,560
are building for pedestrians. They're
4954
04:01:14,880 --> 04:01:20,000
building for cycling. They're building
4955
04:01:16,560 --> 04:01:22,640
for livability, not for cars.
4956
04:01:20,000 --> 04:01:26,600
>> The bike economy, the multi-billion
4957
04:01:22,640 --> 04:01:26,600
dollar system of Amsterdam.
4958
04:01:27,760 --> 04:01:34,560
In Amsterdam, the bicycle isn't a toy.
4959
04:01:31,199 --> 04:01:37,439
It is a critical urban infrastructure.
4960
04:01:34,560 --> 04:01:41,880
If this system failed today, the city's
4961
04:01:37,439 --> 04:01:41,880
economy would collapse tomorrow.
4962
04:01:42,000 --> 04:01:47,120
For decades, the world has viewed
4963
04:01:43,920 --> 04:01:50,399
Amsterdam through a romantic lens. But
4964
04:01:47,120 --> 04:01:52,960
cities don't run on vibes. They run on
4965
04:01:50,399 --> 04:01:54,880
systems. And when a system moves
4966
04:01:52,960 --> 04:01:57,840
hundreds of thousands of people every
4967
04:01:54,880 --> 04:02:01,040
single day, it stops being a choice and
4968
04:01:57,840 --> 04:02:03,840
starts demanding three things. space,
4969
04:02:01,040 --> 04:02:06,080
rules, and capital.
4970
04:02:03,840 --> 04:02:08,319
Research shows that the cycling system
4971
04:02:06,080 --> 04:02:10,399
contributes benefits equivalent to
4972
04:02:08,319 --> 04:02:11,920
roughly 3% of the Netherlands [music]
4973
04:02:10,399 --> 04:02:14,880
GDP.
4974
04:02:11,920 --> 04:02:17,680
This isn't just green energy. It's hard
4975
04:02:14,880 --> 04:02:20,239
cash saved in public health, reduced
4976
04:02:17,680 --> 04:02:21,279
absenteeism at work, and most
4977
04:02:20,239 --> 04:02:24,160
importantly, [music]
4978
04:02:21,279 --> 04:02:27,062
unlocked productivity. Every person on a
4979
04:02:24,160 --> 04:02:28,800
bike is a person who isn't taking up 12
4980
04:02:27,062 --> 04:02:32,080
[music] square meters of public space
4981
04:02:28,800 --> 04:02:34,640
with a car. That freed up space allows
4982
04:02:32,080 --> 04:02:37,920
for high value real estate, commerce,
4983
04:02:34,640 --> 04:02:42,520
and tourism. In economics, we call this
4984
04:02:37,920 --> 04:02:42,520
optimization of land use.
4985
04:02:44,000 --> 04:02:49,920
But success created a [music] crisis. By
4986
04:02:47,120 --> 04:02:52,607
the 2010s, Amsterdam had a clutter
4987
04:02:49,920 --> 04:02:55,760
problem. Thousands of bikes were choking
4988
04:02:52,607 --> 04:02:57,680
[music] the streets. The solution, one
4989
04:02:55,760 --> 04:02:59,279
of the most expensive and daring
4990
04:02:57,680 --> 04:03:03,279
engineering projects [music] in the
4991
04:02:59,279 --> 04:03:06,880
city. They built a cathedral for 7,000
4992
04:03:03,279 --> 04:03:08,479
bicycles under the water.
4993
04:03:06,880 --> 04:03:10,800
It cost millions. [music]
4994
04:03:08,479 --> 04:03:13,279
From a traditional linear perspective,
4995
04:03:10,800 --> 04:03:16,160
spending that much on free parking seems
4996
04:03:13,279 --> 04:03:18,560
insane. But from a circular economy
4997
04:03:16,160 --> 04:03:21,279
perspective, a model where Amsterdam is
4998
04:03:18,560 --> 04:03:23,840
a global leader with 30.6% [music]
4999
04:03:21,279 --> 04:03:26,560
circularity rate, it was a mandatory
5000
04:03:23,840 --> 04:03:28,160
investment. As we see in the latest
5001
04:03:26,560 --> 04:03:30,800
urban governance reports, [music]
5002
04:03:28,160 --> 04:03:33,439
planning isn't an option here. It's the
5003
04:03:30,800 --> 04:03:35,279
only way to exist.
5004
04:03:33,439 --> 04:03:38,080
In this documentary, [music] we are
5005
04:03:35,279 --> 04:03:41,199
going beyond the postcard. We will
5006
04:03:38,080 --> 04:03:43,520
travel back to 1965 to see why [music]
5007
04:03:41,199 --> 04:03:46,318
the first sharing economy experiment
5008
04:03:43,520 --> 04:03:48,720
failed. We will use scientific GPS
5009
04:03:46,318 --> 04:03:52,239
[music] data to track the shadow economy
5010
04:03:48,720 --> 04:03:53,920
of the 80,000 bikes stolen every year.
5011
04:03:52,239 --> 04:03:56,399
And we will explore [music] how
5012
04:03:53,920 --> 04:04:00,239
Amsterdam is using the bicycle to become
5013
04:03:56,399 --> 04:04:03,680
the world's first 100% circular city by
5014
04:04:00,239 --> 04:04:05,760
2050. This is the story of how a humble
5015
04:04:03,680 --> 04:04:08,560
machine with two wheels became the
5016
04:04:05,760 --> 04:04:11,560
backbone of a multi-billion dollar urban
5017
04:04:08,560 --> 04:04:11,560
miracle.
5018
04:04:14,319 --> 04:04:20,399
To understand why Amsterdam spends €85
5019
04:04:17,199 --> 04:04:22,880
million on underwater parking today, we
5020
04:04:20,399 --> 04:04:26,160
have to go back to a time when the city
5021
04:04:22,880 --> 04:04:29,160
almost lost its soul to the car, the
5022
04:04:26,160 --> 04:04:29,160
1960s.
5023
04:04:33,359 --> 04:04:39,600
As post-war prosperity grew, Amsterdam
5024
04:04:36,319 --> 04:04:41,760
was being choked by motor vehicles.
5025
04:04:39,600 --> 04:04:43,840
In response, a counterculture group
5026
04:04:41,760 --> 04:04:46,399
called the Provos launched what would
5027
04:04:43,840 --> 04:04:49,920
become the first bike sharing program in
5028
04:04:46,399 --> 04:04:52,239
history, the Vita Fieten Plan, or the
5029
04:04:49,920 --> 04:04:54,880
White Bike Plan.
5030
04:04:52,239 --> 04:04:57,600
Their proposal was radical and purely
5031
04:04:54,880 --> 04:04:59,920
idealistic. Paint 20,000 [music]
5032
04:04:57,600 --> 04:05:02,399
bicycles white, leave them unlocked
5033
04:04:59,920 --> 04:05:05,600
across the city and let anyone use them
5034
04:05:02,399 --> 04:05:08,640
for free. No keys, no coins, [music]
5035
04:05:05,600 --> 04:05:11,520
no owners. They viewed mobility as a
5036
04:05:08,640 --> 04:05:14,720
public good, as essential and free as
5037
04:05:11,520 --> 04:05:16,080
the air we breathe. On paper, it was a
5038
04:05:14,720 --> 04:05:19,600
circular economy, [music]
5039
04:05:16,080 --> 04:05:21,920
avant letra. In practice, it was a
5040
04:05:19,600 --> 04:05:24,720
disaster. [music] Within days, the
5041
04:05:21,920 --> 04:05:26,880
system collapsed. Why? Because the
5042
04:05:24,720 --> 04:05:29,760
provos ignored a fundamental principle
5043
04:05:26,880 --> 04:05:32,760
of economics, the tragedy [music] of the
5044
04:05:29,760 --> 04:05:32,760
commons.
5045
04:06:08,080 --> 04:06:12,319
Without ownership or registration,
5046
04:06:10,239 --> 04:06:15,359
public property quickly [music] became
5047
04:06:12,319 --> 04:06:17,600
nobody's property. In an unregulated
5048
04:06:15,359 --> 04:06:19,439
system with zero entry cost, the
5049
04:06:17,600 --> 04:06:21,680
incentive to maintain the asset
5050
04:06:19,439 --> 04:06:24,239
disappears. Without locks or
5051
04:06:21,680 --> 04:06:26,399
registration, public property quickly
5052
04:06:24,239 --> 04:06:28,640
became nobody's property. [music]
5053
04:06:26,399 --> 04:06:31,439
The police confiscated the bikes because
5054
04:06:28,640 --> 04:06:34,160
they invited theft and the citizens
5055
04:06:31,439 --> 04:06:35,965
driven by individual rationalism either
5056
04:06:34,160 --> 04:06:38,800
took them home or threw them into
5057
04:06:35,965 --> 04:06:41,600
[music] the canals.
5058
04:06:38,800 --> 04:06:43,279
The lesson was harsh. You cannot have a
5059
04:06:41,600 --> 04:06:46,000
massive urban transit system [music]
5060
04:06:43,279 --> 04:06:49,640
based solely on romanticism.
5061
04:06:46,000 --> 04:06:49,640
You need governance.
5062
04:06:51,279 --> 04:06:57,359
However, the white bikes planted a seed.
5063
04:06:54,319 --> 04:06:59,120
It shifted the economic debate. The city
5064
04:06:57,359 --> 04:07:01,359
realized that if they didn't want to
5065
04:06:59,120 --> 04:07:04,000
spend billions on highways like Los
5066
04:07:01,359 --> 04:07:06,080
Angeles or London, they had to invest in
5067
04:07:04,000 --> 04:07:08,640
a [music] different kind of capital.
5068
04:07:06,080 --> 04:07:12,080
Transition requires not just technology
5069
04:07:08,640 --> 04:07:14,160
but a change in urban metabolism.
5070
04:07:12,080 --> 04:07:16,479
The failure of the white bikes taught
5071
04:07:14,160 --> 04:07:18,560
Amsterdam that the bicycle had to be
5072
04:07:16,479 --> 04:07:21,279
integrated into the formal economy of
5073
04:07:18,560 --> 04:07:23,920
the city, not as a rebel symbol, [music]
5074
04:07:21,279 --> 04:07:25,439
but as a regulated, taxed and planned
5075
04:07:23,920 --> 04:07:27,439
asset.
5076
04:07:25,439 --> 04:07:29,199
Today, the free spirit of the white
5077
04:07:27,439 --> 04:07:33,040
bikes only survives in one [music]
5078
04:07:29,199 --> 04:07:35,199
place, the Hoga Valu National Park. But
5079
04:07:33,040 --> 04:07:37,600
in the city, the white bike has been
5080
04:07:35,199 --> 04:07:40,640
replaced by a sophisticated capital
5081
04:07:37,600 --> 04:07:42,775
incentive model. We no longer trust in
5082
04:07:40,640 --> 04:07:45,359
the goodness of the user. We trust
5083
04:07:42,775 --> 04:07:47,680
[music] in incentives. We move the
5084
04:07:45,359 --> 04:07:50,560
tragedy of the commons to a system of
5085
04:07:47,680 --> 04:07:53,040
managed common pool resources. In
5086
04:07:50,560 --> 04:07:56,800
economics, success can be as disruptive
5087
04:07:53,040 --> 04:07:59,760
as failure. By the late 2010s, Amsterdam
5088
04:07:56,800 --> 04:08:02,239
was a victim of its own efficiency. With
5089
04:07:59,760 --> 04:08:04,479
nearly 1 million bicycles in the city,
5090
04:08:02,239 --> 04:08:07,600
the urban surface had reached a breaking
5091
04:08:04,479 --> 04:08:11,760
point. Every bridge, railing, and
5092
04:08:07,600 --> 04:08:14,319
sidewalk was occupied by idle metal.
5093
04:08:11,760 --> 04:08:15,439
This wasn't just an aesthetic grievance.
5094
04:08:14,319 --> 04:08:18,560
It was an economic [music]
5095
04:08:15,439 --> 04:08:20,640
bottleneck. Thousands of parked bikes
5096
04:08:18,560 --> 04:08:23,387
were clogging the city's arteries,
5097
04:08:20,640 --> 04:08:26,000
slowing down 200,000 daily commuters at
5098
04:08:23,387 --> 04:08:27,920
[music] Central Station. In one of the
5099
04:08:26,000 --> 04:08:30,319
world's most expensive real estate
5100
04:08:27,920 --> 04:08:32,880
markets, free surface parking [music] is
5101
04:08:30,319 --> 04:08:35,439
a luxury that a functional city cannot
5102
04:08:32,880 --> 04:08:38,560
afford. The opportunity cost of that
5103
04:08:35,439 --> 04:08:40,800
space [music] was becoming too high. To
5104
04:08:38,560 --> 04:08:41,840
solve this, Amsterdam launched the
5105
04:08:40,800 --> 04:08:45,040
entre, [music]
5106
04:08:41,840 --> 04:08:47,840
a massive urban reconfiguration project.
5107
04:08:45,040 --> 04:08:50,239
The crown jewel, the open haven
5108
04:08:47,840 --> 04:08:53,120
underwater parking.
5109
04:08:50,239 --> 04:08:56,399
Consider that figure. Spending €60
5110
04:08:53,120 --> 04:08:57,920
million just to store 7,000 bicycles
5111
04:08:56,399 --> 04:09:00,319
underwater.
5112
04:08:57,920 --> 04:09:03,439
To a traditional accountant, this looks
5113
04:09:00,319 --> 04:09:06,160
like a massive sunk cost. But to an
5114
04:09:03,439 --> 04:09:09,840
urban economist, it's a master stroke of
5115
04:09:06,160 --> 04:09:12,239
asset management. By moving 7,000 bikes
5116
04:09:09,840 --> 04:09:15,040
beneath the water, the city performed
5117
04:09:12,239 --> 04:09:16,960
open heart surgery on its central hub.
5118
04:09:15,040 --> 04:09:20,319
They reclaimed the surface, restoring
5119
04:09:16,960 --> 04:09:22,640
the landscape to its 1900's aesthetic.
5120
04:09:20,319 --> 04:09:25,920
This isn't just about beauty. It's about
5121
04:09:22,640 --> 04:09:28,160
maximizing pedestrian flow. A station
5122
04:09:25,920 --> 04:09:30,720
that breathes and flows is a station
5123
04:09:28,160 --> 04:09:33,840
that generates higher economic value for
5124
04:09:30,720 --> 04:09:36,880
the surrounding businesses. However, an
5125
04:09:33,840 --> 04:09:38,720
85 million euro asset must be managed
5126
04:09:36,880 --> 04:09:41,600
like a high performance logistics
5127
04:09:38,720 --> 04:09:44,399
center. You cannot allow zombie bikes to
5128
04:09:41,600 --> 04:09:46,399
occupy these slots indefinitely.
5129
04:09:44,399 --> 04:09:50,000
This is where the incentive structure
5130
04:09:46,399 --> 04:09:53,359
comes into play. The primary goal isn't
5131
04:09:50,000 --> 04:09:55,920
profit, it's turnover. By offering the
5132
04:09:53,359 --> 04:09:58,560
first 24 hours for free, the city
5133
04:09:55,920 --> 04:10:01,439
subsidizes the daily [music] workforce.
5134
04:09:58,560 --> 04:10:03,840
But by charging a daily fee thereafter,
5135
04:10:01,439 --> 04:10:06,720
they penalize long-term storage and
5136
04:10:03,840 --> 04:10:07,439
abandonment. Using advanced optical
5137
04:10:06,720 --> 04:10:10,239
sensors, [music]
5138
04:10:07,439 --> 04:10:12,800
the city monitors idle inventory in real
5139
04:10:10,239 --> 04:10:15,439
time, ensuring that these [music] 7,000
5140
04:10:12,800 --> 04:10:19,640
slots remain a liquid asset for those
5141
04:10:15,439 --> 04:10:19,640
who keep the economy moving.
5142
04:10:19,680 --> 04:10:24,920
Finally, we must consider the cost of
5143
04:10:21,920 --> 04:10:24,920
friction.
5144
04:10:29,199 --> 04:10:32,199
Transport.
5145
04:11:00,319 --> 04:11:05,120
In transport economics, every second
5146
04:11:02,560 --> 04:11:07,439
lost in a transfer is a loss in human
5147
04:11:05,120 --> 04:11:09,520
capital and productivity.
5148
04:11:07,439 --> 04:11:11,439
This underwater facility connects
5149
04:11:09,520 --> 04:11:14,560
directly to the metro and [music] train
5150
04:11:11,439 --> 04:11:16,880
platforms. A commuter can transition
5151
04:11:14,560 --> 04:11:19,120
from their bicycle to their train seat
5152
04:11:16,880 --> 04:11:21,359
in [music] less than 2 minutes, shielded
5153
04:11:19,120 --> 04:11:22,080
from the elements. This level of
5154
04:11:21,359 --> 04:11:24,160
intermodel [music]
5155
04:11:22,080 --> 04:11:26,640
synergy is exactly what makes
5156
04:11:24,160 --> 04:11:30,800
Amsterdam's circular economy currently
5157
04:11:26,640 --> 04:11:33,199
at a record 30.6 6% circularity rate, a
5158
04:11:30,800 --> 04:11:36,600
functional reality rather than just a
5159
04:11:33,199 --> 04:11:36,600
policy goal.
5160
04:11:59,439 --> 04:12:04,000
But this transition to a highly
5161
04:12:01,199 --> 04:12:06,000
regulated system created its own set of
5162
04:12:04,000 --> 04:12:08,399
problems. [music] Because when you turn
5163
04:12:06,000 --> 04:12:11,279
a bicycle into a valuable economic
5164
04:12:08,399 --> 04:12:14,560
asset, you create something else. A
5165
04:12:11,279 --> 04:12:17,040
black market. [music] In Amsterdam, data
5166
04:12:14,560 --> 04:12:20,080
doesn't tell the whole story. While
5167
04:12:17,040 --> 04:12:23,600
police record 11,000 thefts a year, the
5168
04:12:20,080 --> 04:12:26,000
reality is closer to 80,000.
5169
04:12:23,600 --> 04:12:28,080
Most citizens don't report it. [music]
5170
04:12:26,000 --> 04:12:30,960
Cost of time is higher than the bike's
5171
04:12:28,080 --> 04:12:33,120
value. This creates a massive shadow
5172
04:12:30,960 --> 04:12:36,080
market operating entirely outside the
5173
04:12:33,120 --> 04:12:39,840
official GDP. Forget the myth of
5174
04:12:36,080 --> 04:12:43,600
international bike smuggling rings.
5175
04:12:39,840 --> 04:12:45,760
A 2023 study tracking 100 bikes proved
5176
04:12:43,600 --> 04:12:48,880
that stolen assets rarely leave the
5177
04:12:45,760 --> 04:12:51,520
city. Instead, they feed a shadow
5178
04:12:48,880 --> 04:12:53,359
circular economy. Your stolen bike is
5179
04:12:51,520 --> 04:12:55,439
sold to [music] a street dealer and then
5180
04:12:53,359 --> 04:12:57,180
bought by your neighbor. It's a
5181
04:12:55,439 --> 04:12:57,279
localized, untaxed, and
5182
04:12:57,180 --> 04:13:00,960
>> [music]
5183
04:12:57,279 --> 04:13:03,120
>> illegal closed loop.
5184
04:13:00,960 --> 04:13:05,680
High theft risk creates a market
5185
04:13:03,120 --> 04:13:07,659
distortion. If you expect your bike to
5186
04:13:05,680 --> 04:13:11,040
be stolen within months, you don't
5187
04:13:07,659 --> 04:13:13,760
[music] buy quality, you buy junk. This
5188
04:13:11,040 --> 04:13:16,319
beta bike equilibrium keeps the city's
5189
04:13:13,760 --> 04:13:18,140
transport fleet low quality and forces
5190
04:13:16,319 --> 04:13:20,880
owners to spend more on locks than
5191
04:13:18,140 --> 04:13:23,600
[music] the bikes themselves.
5192
04:13:20,880 --> 04:13:26,000
These aren't victimless crimes. They are
5193
04:13:23,600 --> 04:13:27,279
negative externalities that drain city
5194
04:13:26,000 --> 04:13:31,120
resources. [music]
5195
04:13:27,279 --> 04:13:32,880
Amsterdam's answer, the Fiat depot.
5196
04:13:31,120 --> 04:13:35,279
Since the city [music] couldn't stop the
5197
04:13:32,880 --> 04:13:37,600
theft, it decided to manage the orphaned
5198
04:13:35,279 --> 04:13:40,239
assets. Because in a circular [music]
5199
04:13:37,600 --> 04:13:42,319
city, even a stolen bike is a resource
5200
04:13:40,239 --> 04:13:45,640
that must be managed to maintain the
5201
04:13:42,319 --> 04:13:45,640
urban metabolism.
5202
04:13:46,000 --> 04:13:50,319
In a city with more bicycles than
5203
04:13:48,159 --> 04:13:52,000
people, orphaned assets are an
5204
04:13:50,319 --> 04:13:53,920
inevitability.
5205
04:13:52,000 --> 04:13:56,960
Every year, thousands of bikes are
5206
04:13:53,920 --> 04:13:59,600
simply left behind. In economic terms,
5207
04:13:56,960 --> 04:14:02,319
this is dead capital. They occupy
5208
04:13:59,600 --> 04:14:04,239
valuable public space, provide zero
5209
04:14:02,319 --> 04:14:05,840
utility, and degrade the urban
5210
04:14:04,239 --> 04:14:07,680
landscape.
5211
04:14:05,840 --> 04:14:10,159
According to official Amsterdam
5212
04:14:07,680 --> 04:14:12,640
regulations, the city must intervene
5213
04:14:10,159 --> 04:14:14,800
when private property interferes with
5214
04:14:12,640 --> 04:14:17,359
public efficiency.
5215
04:14:14,800 --> 04:14:20,319
Whether is an improperly parked bike
5216
04:14:17,359 --> 04:14:22,399
blocking an emergency exit or a wreck
5217
04:14:20,319 --> 04:14:24,640
that is no longer functional, the
5218
04:14:22,399 --> 04:14:28,479
municipality acts as the ultimate
5219
04:14:24,640 --> 04:14:31,279
enforcer of spatial order.
5220
04:14:28,479 --> 04:14:34,880
All seized bicycles are transported to a
5221
04:14:31,279 --> 04:14:37,120
central facility, the Fiat's depot. This
5222
04:14:34,880 --> 04:14:40,239
is a logistical powerhouse that manages
5223
04:14:37,120 --> 04:14:43,120
the city's lost capital. This isn't just
5224
04:14:40,239 --> 04:14:46,720
a pound. It's a sorting facility for the
5225
04:14:43,120 --> 04:14:48,800
city's metal metabolism, the retrieval.
5226
04:14:46,720 --> 04:14:52,880
Owners have around 6 weeks to claim
5227
04:14:48,800 --> 04:14:54,800
their bike for a fee, approximately €25.
5228
04:14:52,880 --> 04:14:57,199
This fee doesn't cover the full
5229
04:14:54,800 --> 04:15:00,479
operational cost, but it serves as a
5230
04:14:57,199 --> 04:15:02,880
user pays tax to discourage abandonment.
5231
04:15:00,479 --> 04:15:05,279
If your bicycle was removed from a city
5232
04:15:02,880 --> 04:15:07,359
parking facility, you will also pay
5233
04:15:05,279 --> 04:15:11,840
€33.75
5234
04:15:07,359 --> 04:15:15,120
parking cost. The sorting only about 25%
5235
04:15:11,840 --> 04:15:17,920
of bikes are ever reclaimed. The rest
5236
04:15:15,120 --> 04:15:19,439
they are classified as waste or asset.
5237
04:15:17,920 --> 04:15:23,439
Here [music] is where the circular
5238
04:15:19,439 --> 04:15:26,720
economy strategy 2020 to 2025 becomes
5239
04:15:23,439 --> 04:15:29,840
tangible. Amsterdam aims to reduce the
5240
04:15:26,720 --> 04:15:33,600
use of new raw materials by 50% [music]
5241
04:15:29,840 --> 04:15:35,840
by 2030. The Fiat's depot doesn't just
5242
04:15:33,600 --> 04:15:37,359
scrap everything.
5243
04:15:35,840 --> 04:15:39,600
Refurbishment.
5244
04:15:37,359 --> 04:15:42,399
Bikes in decent condition are sold to
5245
04:15:39,600 --> 04:15:44,880
social enterprises or secondhand shops.
5246
04:15:42,399 --> 04:15:46,960
They are recirculated into the economy
5247
04:15:44,880 --> 04:15:49,279
at a low price point, providing
5248
04:15:46,960 --> 04:15:51,040
affordable mobility for lowincome
5249
04:15:49,279 --> 04:15:52,640
residents.
5250
04:15:51,040 --> 04:15:55,040
Education.
5251
04:15:52,640 --> 04:15:57,680
Many are used in vocational training
5252
04:15:55,040 --> 04:16:00,399
programs, turning junk, into a teaching
5253
04:15:57,680 --> 04:16:03,359
tool for future mechanics. Raw
5254
04:16:00,399 --> 04:16:06,239
materials, the unsalvageable ones, are
5255
04:16:03,359 --> 04:16:09,439
sold as highquality scrap metal, feeding
5256
04:16:06,239 --> 04:16:11,359
back into the industrial cycle.
5257
04:16:09,439 --> 04:16:14,800
What we see here is a complete life
5258
04:16:11,359 --> 04:16:16,080
cycle management of a transport mode.
5259
04:16:14,800 --> 04:16:18,640
The biggest challenge [music] for
5260
04:16:16,080 --> 04:16:21,279
circular cities is the lack of effective
5261
04:16:18,640 --> 04:16:23,520
governance mechanisms. Amsterdam
5262
04:16:21,279 --> 04:16:26,000
succeeds because it treats the bicycle
5263
04:16:23,520 --> 04:16:28,399
as a public utility. From the
5264
04:16:26,000 --> 04:16:30,960
multi-million euro investment under the
5265
04:16:28,399 --> 04:16:32,800
water to the scrap metal in the harbor,
5266
04:16:30,960 --> 04:16:37,479
the city manages the entire
5267
04:16:32,800 --> 04:16:37,479
cradletograve cycle of the bicycle.
5268
04:16:39,359 --> 04:16:43,920
Amsterdam is no longer just building
5269
04:16:41,520 --> 04:16:47,520
bike lanes. It is building a new
5270
04:16:43,920 --> 04:16:50,800
economic DNA. The city has set a target
5271
04:16:47,520 --> 04:16:56,199
that many economists call impossible to
5272
04:16:50,800 --> 04:16:56,199
be 100% circular by 2050.
5273
04:16:57,040 --> 04:17:02,640
This means that by midentury, every gram
5274
04:16:59,840 --> 04:17:05,199
of steel in a bicycle and every stone in
5275
04:17:02,640 --> 04:17:06,479
a bridge must stay within the economic
5276
04:17:05,199 --> 04:17:09,279
loop.
5277
04:17:06,479 --> 04:17:12,479
The take, make, waste model will be
5278
04:17:09,279 --> 04:17:15,279
extinct. For Amsterdam, the bicycle is
5279
04:17:12,479 --> 04:17:18,319
the alpha product. The test case for how
5280
04:17:15,279 --> 04:17:21,600
a city can move, consume, and recycle
5281
04:17:18,319 --> 04:17:24,800
without depleting the planet's capital.
5282
04:17:21,600 --> 04:17:27,040
To reach 100% circularity, the concept
5283
04:17:24,800 --> 04:17:30,319
of private ownership is being challenged
5284
04:17:27,040 --> 04:17:32,960
by a more efficient model, product as a
5285
04:17:30,319 --> 04:17:35,040
service. You don't buy the bike, you
5286
04:17:32,960 --> 04:17:36,880
rent the mobility.
5287
04:17:35,040 --> 04:17:38,560
So we talk a lot about ownership as a
5288
04:17:36,880 --> 04:17:41,520
service, but it's this idea of, you
5289
04:17:38,560 --> 04:17:43,920
know, something as a service. So in our
5290
04:17:41,520 --> 04:17:45,920
case, bike as a service. It's all of the
5291
04:17:43,920 --> 04:17:47,600
benefits of ownership, but none of the
5292
04:17:45,920 --> 04:17:49,600
drawbacks. So none of having to deal
5293
04:17:47,600 --> 04:17:51,199
with the maintenance or or any of the
5294
04:17:49,600 --> 04:17:52,159
things that come with actually owning
5295
04:17:51,199 --> 04:17:54,479
something.
5296
04:17:52,159 --> 04:17:57,439
>> Economically, this aligns the incentives
5297
04:17:54,479 --> 04:18:00,239
of the producer and the consumer. If the
5298
04:17:57,439 --> 04:18:02,960
bike breaks, it's the company's problem,
5299
04:18:00,239 --> 04:18:04,720
not yours. by centralizing all of that
5300
04:18:02,960 --> 04:18:06,239
maintenance obviously we cut cost
5301
04:18:04,720 --> 04:18:08,960
significantly we cut [music] waste
5302
04:18:06,239 --> 04:18:11,760
significantly um but for the individual
5303
04:18:08,960 --> 04:18:13,520
user um they have nothing to worry about
5304
04:18:11,760 --> 04:18:15,120
you know as a subscriber you get all of
5305
04:18:13,520 --> 04:18:17,120
your maintenance so we come and do
5306
04:18:15,120 --> 04:18:19,040
preventative maintenance so first of all
5307
04:18:17,120 --> 04:18:21,199
that obviously reduced the cost um
5308
04:18:19,040 --> 04:18:23,199
overall not so much to the end user but
5309
04:18:21,199 --> 04:18:25,279
the cost of the business um that
5310
04:18:23,199 --> 04:18:28,159
prevents breakdowns and things like that
5311
04:18:25,279 --> 04:18:30,960
but in the end if you think about um the
5312
04:18:28,159 --> 04:18:32,319
cost of time the cost of effort um maybe
5313
04:18:30,960 --> 04:18:34,319
you you don't even know how to maintain
5314
04:18:32,319 --> 04:18:36,000
your own bike. Um, having a service that
5315
04:18:34,319 --> 04:18:37,520
does all of that for you is just a a
5316
04:18:36,000 --> 04:18:40,159
matter of convenience.
5317
04:18:37,520 --> 04:18:43,199
>> This forces manufacturers to design for
5318
04:18:40,159 --> 04:18:46,159
durability and modularity, the core
5319
04:18:43,199 --> 04:18:48,399
pillars of this circular economy. When
5320
04:18:46,159 --> 04:18:50,479
the city manages the flow and private
5321
04:18:48,399 --> 04:18:53,439
companies manage the maintenance, the
5322
04:18:50,479 --> 04:18:56,399
shadow economy of theft we saw in act
5323
04:18:53,439 --> 04:18:57,920
three begins to shrink. So, if you
5324
04:18:56,399 --> 04:18:59,439
subscribe to a bike from Clover and your
5325
04:18:57,920 --> 04:19:00,960
bike gets stolen, first of all, we
5326
04:18:59,439 --> 04:19:03,120
actually probably will notice that it
5327
04:19:00,960 --> 04:19:05,600
got stolen, maybe even before you did,
5328
04:19:03,120 --> 04:19:07,760
because we have GPS on all the bikes.
5329
04:19:05,600 --> 04:19:09,760
Um, but if it does get stolen, you use
5330
04:19:07,760 --> 04:19:11,199
our WhatsApp chat. You basically send us
5331
04:19:09,760 --> 04:19:13,760
a message and we come and bring you a
5332
04:19:11,199 --> 04:19:16,239
new bike immediately. Why steal a bike
5333
04:19:13,760 --> 04:19:18,560
that is tracked, branded, and has no
5334
04:19:16,239 --> 04:19:20,960
resale value in a subscription-based
5335
04:19:18,560 --> 04:19:22,720
market?
5336
04:19:20,960 --> 04:19:24,720
So, what is the final return on
5337
04:19:22,720 --> 04:19:28,399
investment? [music] Let's look at the
5338
04:19:24,720 --> 04:19:30,960
triple bottom line. Public health. By
5339
04:19:28,399 --> 04:19:32,560
avoiding 11,000 deaths annually through
5340
04:19:30,960 --> 04:19:35,760
active transport, [music] the Dutch
5341
04:19:32,560 --> 04:19:37,439
economy saves 19 billion in healthcare
5342
04:19:35,760 --> 04:19:40,880
costs.
5343
04:19:37,439 --> 04:19:43,520
Urban density. By utilizing underwater
5344
04:19:40,880 --> 04:19:45,760
parking and vertical depots, Amsterdam
5345
04:19:43,520 --> 04:19:48,080
maintains a population density that
5346
04:19:45,760 --> 04:19:51,840
would be impossible with cars, keeping
5347
04:19:48,080 --> 04:19:54,560
real estate productivity at peak levels.
5348
04:19:51,840 --> 04:19:57,120
Resource independence. By reclaiming
5349
04:19:54,560 --> 04:19:59,120
metal from the Fiats depot, the city
5350
04:19:57,120 --> 04:20:01,680
insulates itself from [music] global
5351
04:19:59,120 --> 04:20:04,880
commodity price shocks. This is a
5352
04:20:01,680 --> 04:20:07,199
sustainable urban metabolism. The city
5353
04:20:04,880 --> 04:20:09,520
isn't just a place where people live.
5354
04:20:07,199 --> 04:20:12,880
It's a living organism that processes
5355
04:20:09,520 --> 04:20:15,120
resources with maximum efficiency.
5356
04:20:12,880 --> 04:20:17,520
Amsterdam's success has sent a clear
5357
04:20:15,120 --> 04:20:19,760
message to the rest of the continent.
5358
04:20:17,520 --> 04:20:22,560
Spatial efficiency is the only way
5359
04:20:19,760 --> 04:20:25,040
forward for the modern metropolis.
5360
04:20:22,560 --> 04:20:27,040
Across Europe, the bicycle has moved
5361
04:20:25,040 --> 04:20:29,199
from being a leisure tool to a
5362
04:20:27,040 --> 04:20:31,359
cornerstone of urban recovery and
5363
04:20:29,199 --> 04:20:34,080
economic resilience.
5364
04:20:31,359 --> 04:20:37,120
In Paris, a city once defined by its
5365
04:20:34,080 --> 04:20:39,680
congestion, the plan is investing
5366
04:20:37,120 --> 04:20:43,120
hundreds of millions to become 100%
5367
04:20:39,680 --> 04:20:45,439
cyclable. In Barcelona, the super blocks
5368
04:20:43,120 --> 04:20:49,840
are reclaiming entire intersections from
5369
04:20:45,439 --> 04:20:51,439
cars to create human centric lungs.
5370
04:20:49,840 --> 04:20:55,040
These aren't just environmental
5371
04:20:51,439 --> 04:20:57,439
projects. They are market corrections.
5372
04:20:55,040 --> 04:21:00,000
The cities are betting that a quieter,
5373
04:20:57,439 --> 04:21:02,399
cleaner, and more agile urban center
5374
04:21:00,000 --> 04:21:05,279
will attract more talent, more tourism,
5375
04:21:02,399 --> 04:21:07,840
and higher property values.
5376
04:21:05,279 --> 04:21:10,399
From the cycle superighways of London to
5377
04:21:07,840 --> 04:21:13,439
the industrial hubs of Germany, the
5378
04:21:10,399 --> 04:21:16,720
economic logic is consistent. Replacing
5379
04:21:13,439 --> 04:21:19,120
a 1 and 1/2 ton vehicle with a 15 kg
5380
04:21:16,720 --> 04:21:21,120
machine reduces the cost of maintenance
5381
04:21:19,120 --> 04:21:24,000
for the city and increases the
5382
04:21:21,120 --> 04:21:26,159
productivity of the citizen.
5383
04:21:24,000 --> 04:21:28,399
But while northern capitals have the
5384
04:21:26,159 --> 04:21:31,199
advantage of decades of infrastructure,
5385
04:21:28,399 --> 04:21:33,199
the real test is happening in the south.
5386
04:21:31,199 --> 04:21:35,439
In the Mediterranean, where the street
5387
04:21:33,199 --> 04:21:37,760
is a social space and the sun is a
5388
04:21:35,439 --> 04:21:40,399
constant resource, a new leader is
5389
04:21:37,760 --> 04:21:42,880
emerging. A city that has used the
5390
04:21:40,399 --> 04:21:46,680
Amsterdam blueprint to transform itself
5391
04:21:42,880 --> 04:21:46,680
at record speed.
5392
04:21:51,666 --> 04:21:55,640
[music]
5393
04:21:52,640 --> 04:21:55,640
Fore
5394
04:22:13,520 --> 04:22:16,520
speech.
5395
04:22:19,176 --> 04:22:21,195
>> [music]
5396
04:22:49,840 --> 04:22:55,880
>> If Amsterdam is the blueprint, [music]
5397
04:22:51,680 --> 04:22:55,880
Valencia is the laboratory.
5398
04:22:57,840 --> 04:23:00,840
is
5399
04:23:08,880 --> 04:23:12,199
not the fact.
5400
04:23:39,600 --> 04:23:43,760
In less than a decade, this
5401
04:23:41,279 --> 04:23:45,760
Mediterranean city has transitioned from
5402
04:23:43,760 --> 04:23:50,359
a car ccentric capital to a [music]
5403
04:23:45,760 --> 04:23:50,359
global reference in urban metabolism.
5404
04:24:12,000 --> 04:24:17,600
Valencia's transformation wasn't a
5405
04:24:14,319 --> 04:24:19,760
matter of vibes or romanticism. It was a
5406
04:24:17,600 --> 04:24:21,279
calculated investment in spatial
5407
04:24:19,760 --> 04:24:23,600
efficiency.
5408
04:24:21,279 --> 04:24:25,120
I think attracting top global talent
5409
04:24:23,600 --> 04:24:26,960
means that you need to have a vibrant,
5410
04:24:25,120 --> 04:24:29,040
livable city. And I think most young
5411
04:24:26,960 --> 04:24:31,120
people um particularly who are coming
5412
04:24:29,040 --> 04:24:33,279
into the workforce now are looking for
5413
04:24:31,120 --> 04:24:35,760
ways to get around a city that doesn't
5414
04:24:33,279 --> 04:24:38,319
rely on public transit. They don't want
5415
04:24:35,760 --> 04:24:40,003
to own a car um because car ownership is
5416
04:24:38,319 --> 04:24:41,840
a total burden. Having to find parking,
5417
04:24:40,003 --> 04:24:44,080
[music] insurance, cost of the car, all
5418
04:24:41,840 --> 04:24:46,319
of that. So having this accessible
5419
04:24:44,080 --> 04:24:47,279
infrastructure, cycling infrastructure
5420
04:24:46,319 --> 04:24:49,120
specifically, [music]
5421
04:24:47,279 --> 04:24:50,960
and in a city like Valencia that, you
5422
04:24:49,120 --> 04:24:52,960
know, already has a lot of reasons to
5423
04:24:50,960 --> 04:24:55,760
attract top talent just makes it that
5424
04:24:52,960 --> 04:24:57,279
much better. Um, cycling is a preferred
5425
04:24:55,760 --> 04:24:58,960
way to get around in Valencia, we're
5426
04:24:57,279 --> 04:25:01,279
number seven in the world for cycling to
5427
04:24:58,960 --> 04:25:03,439
work, for example. So adding a layer of
5428
04:25:01,279 --> 04:25:05,439
an easy subscription ebike service to
5429
04:25:03,439 --> 04:25:08,399
that just [music] again attracts even
5430
04:25:05,439 --> 04:25:11,520
more um top talent to the city.
5431
04:25:08,399 --> 04:25:13,600
By implementing the Anilo Crista, the
5432
04:25:11,520 --> 04:25:16,399
city has reclaimed high value public
5433
04:25:13,600 --> 04:25:18,720
space to boost local commerce and reduce
5434
04:25:16,399 --> 04:25:20,880
the toxic liability of the car.
5435
04:25:18,720 --> 04:25:22,640
>> It's important to remember that um often
5436
04:25:20,880 --> 04:25:24,319
times with cars, although they can fit
5437
04:25:22,640 --> 04:25:26,319
multiple people, most of the time it's
5438
04:25:24,319 --> 04:25:28,000
one person per one car. So when we're
5439
04:25:26,319 --> 04:25:30,000
asking about, you know, 10 bikes versus
5440
04:25:28,000 --> 04:25:32,239
one car, we're essentially saying 10
5441
04:25:30,000 --> 04:25:34,000
people versus one person. So we have a
5442
04:25:32,239 --> 04:25:35,439
10x multiplier on essentially everything
5443
04:25:34,000 --> 04:25:36,720
that's happening on that street. Whether
5444
04:25:35,439 --> 04:25:37,920
that be visits to the businesses,
5445
04:25:36,720 --> 04:25:39,600
whether that be transactions and
5446
04:25:37,920 --> 04:25:41,199
purchases, everything gets that 10x
5447
04:25:39,600 --> 04:25:42,080
multiplier and increases revenue for the
5448
04:25:41,199 --> 04:25:44,479
whole street.
5449
04:25:42,080 --> 04:25:46,880
>> In economics, this is the optimization
5450
04:25:44,479 --> 04:25:49,040
of land use. The same principle that
5451
04:25:46,880 --> 04:25:49,920
drove Amsterdam to build under its
5452
04:25:49,040 --> 04:25:51,760
canals.
5453
04:25:49,920 --> 04:25:54,560
>> If I'm cycling and I pass by, for
5454
04:25:51,760 --> 04:25:56,080
example, a bakery, go I smell that
5455
04:25:54,560 --> 04:25:57,293
bakery, I go, "Oh, you know what? Maybe
5456
04:25:56,080 --> 04:25:59,120
I'm going to stop in try something
5457
04:25:57,293 --> 04:26:00,399
[music] one of those products." Um, you
5458
04:25:59,120 --> 04:26:01,760
know, essentially become a patron of
5459
04:26:00,399 --> 04:26:03,199
that business. Whereas if I'm passing by
5460
04:26:01,760 --> 04:26:04,880
in a car, there's no chance of that
5461
04:26:03,199 --> 04:26:07,520
happening. And the other benefit [music]
5462
04:26:04,880 --> 04:26:09,359
is um car parking also has this sort of
5463
04:26:07,520 --> 04:26:11,040
psychological effect on the streets and
5464
04:26:09,359 --> 04:26:12,720
the people that live there. Car parking
5465
04:26:11,040 --> 04:26:14,800
makes the space feel a lot more closed
5466
04:26:12,720 --> 04:26:15,840
in and a lot more cramped than bike
5467
04:26:14,800 --> 04:26:17,439
parking, [music] which keeps the space
5468
04:26:15,840 --> 04:26:19,359
very nice and open.
5469
04:26:17,439 --> 04:26:22,239
>> Emerging businesses are shifting the
5470
04:26:19,359 --> 04:26:23,760
market from ownership to usership.
5471
04:26:22,239 --> 04:26:25,680
>> You know, our customers, [music]
5472
04:26:23,760 --> 04:26:27,760
they depend on their bikes as a reliable
5473
04:26:25,680 --> 04:26:29,840
way to get around. And so we use an
5474
04:26:27,760 --> 04:26:32,319
ownership as a service model. So [music]
5475
04:26:29,840 --> 04:26:34,560
instead of owning the asset yourself um
5476
04:26:32,319 --> 04:26:36,319
you subscribe to it from us and we think
5477
04:26:34,560 --> 04:26:38,399
that's what customers need in terms of
5478
04:26:36,319 --> 04:26:40,399
reliable day-to-day transportation. If
5479
04:26:38,399 --> 04:26:42,560
you look at something like Lime or Valen
5480
04:26:40,399 --> 04:26:45,120
BC they will have that idle asset
5481
04:26:42,560 --> 04:26:48,000
problem. Um and certainly ownership
5482
04:26:45,120 --> 04:26:49,760
obviously the same thing but with us you
5483
04:26:48,000 --> 04:26:52,159
know handling maintenance, battery
5484
04:26:49,760 --> 04:26:53,920
swapping, theft protection, insurance,
5485
04:26:52,159 --> 04:26:55,760
all of that. Um [music] and yet still
5486
04:26:53,920 --> 04:26:57,680
having access to the bike anytime you
5487
04:26:55,760 --> 04:27:00,399
want. It's your bike. Subscription
5488
04:26:57,680 --> 04:27:02,399
models like Swap Fiats, which already
5489
04:27:00,399 --> 04:27:05,199
dominate the Dutch market, are landing
5490
04:27:02,399 --> 04:27:07,359
in Valencia. These companies treat the
5491
04:27:05,199 --> 04:27:09,359
bike as a service, covering all
5492
04:27:07,359 --> 04:27:09,840
maintenance and repairs for a monthly
5493
04:27:09,359 --> 04:27:11,760
fee.
5494
04:27:09,840 --> 04:27:13,840
>> You ownership isn't necessarily a bad
5495
04:27:11,760 --> 04:27:15,600
investment, but I think um most
5496
04:27:13,840 --> 04:27:16,960
consumers are moving away from owning
5497
04:27:15,600 --> 04:27:18,800
things. You know, people are leasing
5498
04:27:16,960 --> 04:27:21,439
their cars, people are, you know, more
5499
04:27:18,800 --> 04:27:23,439
and more renting their homes. Um so for
5500
04:27:21,439 --> 04:27:25,760
us, a subscription model made sense that
5501
04:27:23,439 --> 04:27:27,760
and affordability. This eliminates the
5502
04:27:25,760 --> 04:27:30,720
fear of theft and long-term
5503
04:27:27,760 --> 04:27:32,960
depreciation, turning the bicycle into a
5504
04:27:30,720 --> 04:27:36,239
predictable, low- friction utility for
5505
04:27:32,960 --> 04:27:39,199
the modern worker. The impact extends to
5506
04:27:36,239 --> 04:27:41,120
logistics. In Valencia's historic
5507
04:27:39,199 --> 04:27:43,520
center, where large trucks are
5508
04:27:41,120 --> 04:27:45,520
increasingly restricted, last mile
5509
04:27:43,520 --> 04:27:46,960
delivery by cargo [music] bike is
5510
04:27:45,520 --> 04:27:49,359
becoming the gold standard for
5511
04:27:46,960 --> 04:27:52,479
efficiency. We are witnessing the birth
5512
04:27:49,359 --> 04:27:55,120
of microhubs, small urban distribution
5513
04:27:52,479 --> 04:27:57,199
centers that allow for zero emission
5514
04:27:55,120 --> 04:27:59,920
high-speed delivery in highdensity
5515
04:27:57,199 --> 04:28:02,399
zones. From the massive underwater
5516
04:27:59,920 --> 04:28:05,040
investments in Amsterdam to the emerging
5517
04:28:02,399 --> 04:28:07,920
subscription models in Valencia, the
5518
04:28:05,040 --> 04:28:10,560
message is clear. The bicycle is no
5519
04:28:07,920 --> 04:28:14,159
longer just a hobby. It is a financial
5520
04:28:10,560 --> 04:28:15,279
instrument and a spatial optimizer.
5521
04:28:14,159 --> 04:28:17,680
You know, when we were speaking to
5522
04:28:15,279 --> 04:28:20,000
consumers about how we could get them to
5523
04:28:17,680 --> 04:28:21,920
switch from a car to an ebike, it was
5524
04:28:20,000 --> 04:28:24,080
all about convenience. So, it was about
5525
04:28:21,920 --> 04:28:26,080
this idea that, you know, with a car,
5526
04:28:24,080 --> 04:28:27,840
you can go point A to point B whenever
5527
04:28:26,080 --> 04:28:29,600
you want. You're not relying on public
5528
04:28:27,840 --> 04:28:31,600
transit or any of those things. [music]
5529
04:28:29,600 --> 04:28:33,439
But if you need gas, you go to a gas
5530
04:28:31,600 --> 04:28:35,279
station, it takes 5 minutes, and you're
5531
04:28:33,439 --> 04:28:37,600
back on your way. People perceived
5532
04:28:35,279 --> 04:28:39,199
ebikes as inconvenient because, oh, what
5533
04:28:37,600 --> 04:28:40,720
if I forget to charge the battery? Then
5534
04:28:39,199 --> 04:28:43,199
it's just kind of a very heavy paper
5535
04:28:40,720 --> 04:28:44,960
weight. Um, but if we eliminate that
5536
04:28:43,199 --> 04:28:46,399
need for charging and people can just
5537
04:28:44,960 --> 04:28:49,040
come and collect a charge battery
5538
04:28:46,399 --> 04:28:52,000
anytime, um, it helps break that barrier
5539
04:28:49,040 --> 04:28:53,920
to entry for getting out of a car. By
5540
04:28:52,000 --> 04:28:56,159
integrating these new business models
5541
04:28:53,920 --> 04:28:58,720
with public planning, Valencia is
5542
04:28:56,159 --> 04:29:01,760
securing its place in the 21st century
5543
04:28:58,720 --> 04:29:04,319
economy. Proving that a dense functional
5544
04:29:01,760 --> 04:29:06,319
city isn't just a choice, it's a
5545
04:29:04,319 --> 04:29:08,159
competitive necessity.
5546
04:29:06,319 --> 04:29:10,239
>> Ultimately, private car ownership is
5547
04:29:08,159 --> 04:29:11,760
going to become obsolete. Cities are
5548
04:29:10,239 --> 04:29:13,439
building for pedestrians. They're
5549
04:29:11,760 --> 04:29:16,000
building for cycling. They're building
5550
04:29:13,439 --> 04:29:18,000
for livability, not for cars.
5551
04:29:16,000 --> 04:29:20,080
>> Throughout this documentary, we have
5552
04:29:18,000 --> 04:29:23,199
seen the gears of a massive economic
5553
04:29:20,080 --> 04:29:26,080
machine. But there is a final myth we
5554
04:29:23,199 --> 04:29:28,479
must dismantle. The idea that cities
5555
04:29:26,080 --> 04:29:30,960
like Amsterdam or Valencia look like
5556
04:29:28,479 --> 04:29:33,520
this because their citizens are simply
5557
04:29:30,960 --> 04:29:37,279
different. History tells a different
5558
04:29:33,520 --> 04:29:39,199
story. In the 1970s, Amsterdam was on
5559
04:29:37,279 --> 04:29:41,840
the verge of becoming another car
5560
04:29:39,199 --> 04:29:44,399
ccentric congested metropolis.
5561
04:29:41,840 --> 04:29:46,800
The transition we see today wasn't a
5562
04:29:44,399 --> 04:29:49,520
natural evolution of culture. [music] It
5563
04:29:46,800 --> 04:29:52,080
was a hostile takeover of urban space by
5564
04:29:49,520 --> 04:29:54,239
a policy and planning. When a city
5565
04:29:52,080 --> 04:29:56,640
reaches a certain density, [music]
5566
04:29:54,239 --> 04:29:58,960
freedom of choice in transport becomes a
5567
04:29:56,640 --> 04:30:02,479
mathematical impossibility.
5568
04:29:58,960 --> 04:30:04,960
If everyone chooses a car, no one moves.
5569
04:30:02,479 --> 04:30:07,920
In this highstakes environment, planning
5570
04:30:04,960 --> 04:30:10,640
is not an option. It is the only way to
5571
04:30:07,920 --> 04:30:14,239
survive. What is the ultimate harvest of
5572
04:30:10,640 --> 04:30:16,560
this planning? It is the [music] 3% GDP
5573
04:30:14,239 --> 04:30:19,439
boost we mentioned at the start. But
5574
04:30:16,560 --> 04:30:22,640
it's also found in the margins,
5575
04:30:19,439 --> 04:30:24,479
the fiscal savings by avoiding the need
5576
04:30:22,640 --> 04:30:26,960
for multi-billion [music] euro highway
5577
04:30:24,479 --> 04:30:29,920
expansions and massive health care costs
5578
04:30:26,960 --> 04:30:32,960
related to sedentary lifestyles.
5579
04:30:29,920 --> 04:30:35,199
The resilience factor by creating a
5580
04:30:32,960 --> 04:30:38,080
circular metropolis that can process its
5581
04:30:35,199 --> 04:30:40,080
own waste at the Kruu depot and turn it
5582
04:30:38,080 --> 04:30:43,199
back into capital.
5583
04:30:40,080 --> 04:30:45,359
The talent magnet in the global war for
5584
04:30:43,199 --> 04:30:47,760
talent. Highly skilled workers choose
5585
04:30:45,359 --> 04:30:50,319
cities based on livability. [music]
5586
04:30:47,760 --> 04:30:52,080
Amsterdam's bicycle infrastructure is
5587
04:30:50,319 --> 04:30:54,720
its most effective recruitment [music]
5588
04:30:52,080 --> 04:30:57,279
tool. We started this journey looking at
5589
04:30:54,720 --> 04:30:59,680
a simple machine, two wheels and a
5590
04:30:57,279 --> 04:31:02,080
frame. [music] But as we've seen, the
5591
04:30:59,680 --> 04:31:04,640
bicycle in Amsterdam is much more than a
5592
04:31:02,080 --> 04:31:08,000
transport mode. It is a financial
5593
04:31:04,640 --> 04:31:10,720
instrument. It is a spatial optimizer.
5594
04:31:08,000 --> 04:31:13,760
It is the invisible engine that allows a
5595
04:31:10,720 --> 04:31:16,640
medieval city to function as a 21st
5596
04:31:13,760 --> 04:31:19,600
century economic powerhouse.
5597
04:31:16,640 --> 04:31:22,080
The €85 million spent on underwater
5598
04:31:19,600 --> 04:31:25,120
tunnels, the complex logistics of the
5599
04:31:22,080 --> 04:31:28,319
Kruquest Depo, or the new Mediterranean
5600
04:31:25,120 --> 04:31:31,600
bike lanes are not costs. They are
5601
04:31:28,319 --> 04:31:34,080
investments in resilience.
5602
04:31:31,600 --> 04:31:36,319
In a world of rising energy prices and
5603
04:31:34,080 --> 04:31:39,359
shrinking urban space, the Amsterdam
5604
04:31:36,319 --> 04:31:41,520
model offers a glimpse into the future.
5605
04:31:39,359 --> 04:31:44,239
It proves that the most sophisticated
5606
04:31:41,520 --> 04:31:46,960
technology isn't always a new gadget.
5607
04:31:44,239 --> 04:31:50,319
Sometimes it's the perfect integration
5608
04:31:46,960 --> 04:31:53,319
of an old idea into a new circular
5609
04:31:50,319 --> 04:31:53,319
world.
5610
04:32:53,760 --> 04:32:56,760
Imagine
5611
04:33:09,199 --> 04:33:12,959
for a moment, what if your Bitcoin
5612
04:33:11,199 --> 04:33:15,039
holdings could purchase more than just
5613
04:33:12,959 --> 04:33:17,600
everyday items like coffee or the latest
5614
04:33:15,039 --> 04:33:19,439
gadgets? What if that digital currency
5615
04:33:17,600 --> 04:33:21,920
sitting in your wallet could actually
5616
04:33:19,439 --> 04:33:26,600
buy you a house or perhaps even an
5617
04:33:21,920 --> 04:33:26,600
entire commercial building? real estate.
5618
04:33:27,283 --> 04:33:29,303
[music]
5619
04:33:36,240 --> 04:33:39,840
Welcome to the fascinating and rapidly
5620
04:33:38,320 --> 04:33:42,160
evolving world of crypto real [music]
5621
04:33:39,840 --> 04:33:46,760
estate where digital assets are being
5622
04:33:42,160 --> 04:33:46,760
transformed into tangible property.
5623
04:33:50,561 --> 04:33:53,760
Today, we're taking a deep dive into the
5624
04:33:52,561 --> 04:33:55,840
revolutionary intersection of
5625
04:33:53,760 --> 04:33:58,080
cryptocurrency and property ownership,
5626
04:33:55,840 --> 04:34:00,240
examining in detail how [music] Bitcoin
5627
04:33:58,080 --> 04:34:02,561
is successfully transforming what were
5628
04:34:00,240 --> 04:34:04,719
once purely digital coins into tangible
5629
04:34:02,561 --> 04:34:06,240
physical real estate investments.
5630
04:34:04,719 --> 04:34:08,240
Whether you're an experienced crypto
5631
04:34:06,240 --> 04:34:10,160
investor looking to diversify your
5632
04:34:08,240 --> 04:34:11,840
portfolio or simply someone who's
5633
04:34:10,160 --> 04:34:14,000
curious about emerging trends in
5634
04:34:11,840 --> 04:34:15,920
property markets, this is an in-depth
5635
04:34:14,000 --> 04:34:17,520
look at how the landscape and future of
5636
04:34:15,920 --> 04:34:19,680
real estate transactions is
5637
04:34:17,520 --> 04:34:22,240
fundamentally evolving and changing
5638
04:34:19,680 --> 04:34:23,760
before our eyes.
5639
04:34:22,240 --> 04:34:25,680
The financial world is in [music]
5640
04:34:23,760 --> 04:34:28,000
constant transformation, but in this
5641
04:34:25,680 --> 04:34:29,600
decade, digitalization has accelerated
5642
04:34:28,000 --> 04:34:31,680
that change faster than anyone [music]
5643
04:34:29,600 --> 04:34:34,480
imagined.
5644
04:34:31,680 --> 04:34:36,719
Today, money, investments, and assets
5645
04:34:34,480 --> 04:34:39,439
flow through codes silent, transparent,
5646
04:34:36,719 --> 04:34:42,160
and borderless. Cryptocurrencies led by
5647
04:34:39,439 --> 04:34:44,160
Bitcoin mark the beginning of a new era.
5648
04:34:42,160 --> 04:34:45,920
They shook the foundations of the global
5649
04:34:44,160 --> 04:34:48,719
financial system, sparking [music] both
5650
04:34:45,920 --> 04:34:51,439
excitement and skepticism. Yet, behind
5651
04:34:48,719 --> 04:34:55,639
that phenomenon emerged something even
5652
04:34:51,439 --> 04:34:55,639
deeper. Tokenization.
5653
04:34:57,760 --> 04:35:00,760
Contraos
5654
04:35:16,639 --> 04:35:20,199
real world assets.
5655
04:35:40,240 --> 04:35:42,400
Moment.
5656
04:35:48,766 --> 04:35:50,785
>> [music]
5657
04:35:52,561 --> 04:35:56,561
>> tokenization brings. So it's the most
5658
04:35:54,000 --> 04:35:58,160
suitable, most modern ledger technology
5659
04:35:56,561 --> 04:35:58,799
uh ideal for modernizing capital
5660
04:35:58,160 --> 04:36:01,865
markets.
5661
04:35:58,799 --> 04:36:03,680
>> The idea is simple, the impact enormous.
5662
04:36:01,865 --> 04:36:05,920
[music] Each token represents a fraction
5663
04:36:03,680 --> 04:36:07,920
of an asset, a share, a bond, a
5664
04:36:05,920 --> 04:36:10,000
property, or even a work of art. All
5665
04:36:07,920 --> 04:36:13,055
recorded on a blockchain, a global
5666
04:36:10,000 --> 04:36:13,055
tamper proof ledger. [music]
5667
04:36:17,586 --> 04:36:19,605
[music]
5668
04:36:30,959 --> 04:36:34,359
Smart contracts.
5669
04:36:48,639 --> 04:36:52,160
We believe the next step going forward
5670
04:36:50,480 --> 04:36:55,439
will be the [music] tokenization of
5671
04:36:52,160 --> 04:36:57,920
financial assets. And that means every
5672
04:36:55,439 --> 04:37:00,719
stock, every bond will have its own
5673
04:36:57,920 --> 04:37:01,279
basically QIP. It'll be on one general
5674
04:37:00,719 --> 04:37:03,760
ledger. [music]
5675
04:37:01,279 --> 04:37:06,240
>> In other words, a token isn't just an
5676
04:37:03,760 --> 04:37:08,639
asset. It's a digital entry in a new
5677
04:37:06,240 --> 04:37:10,959
kind of ledger that is rewriting how
5678
04:37:08,639 --> 04:37:13,119
capital markets keep their books.
5679
04:37:10,959 --> 04:37:14,639
Investment in tokenized real estates
5680
04:37:13,119 --> 04:37:16,959
represents one of the most recent
5681
04:37:14,639 --> 04:37:19,199
advancements in the property industry.
5682
04:37:16,959 --> 04:37:21,680
Tokenization [music] enables houses and
5683
04:37:19,199 --> 04:37:25,719
apartments to be divided and sold and
5684
04:37:21,680 --> 04:37:25,719
numerous smaller units.
5685
04:37:34,879 --> 04:37:37,039
Fraction.
5686
04:37:46,879 --> 04:37:48,959
Fraction.
5687
04:38:12,000 --> 04:38:16,400
Small programs act like a bridge between
5688
04:38:13,920 --> 04:38:18,160
a property and online trading platform.
5689
04:38:16,400 --> 04:38:19,680
Hence tokens create a digital
5690
04:38:18,160 --> 04:38:21,039
representation of a property
5691
04:38:19,680 --> 04:38:24,039
facilitating its digital [music]
5692
04:38:21,039 --> 04:38:24,039
transfer.
5693
04:38:25,520 --> 04:38:28,799
The process [music] of purchasing a
5694
04:38:26,959 --> 04:38:30,879
property is still associated with
5695
04:38:28,799 --> 04:38:34,240
significant bureaucracy, lengthy
5696
04:38:30,879 --> 04:38:37,520
procedures and subsequent high costs.
5697
04:38:34,240 --> 04:38:40,000
So what exactly is crypto real estate?
5698
04:38:37,520 --> 04:38:42,240
At its core, the term refers to any real
5699
04:38:40,000 --> 04:38:45,039
estate transaction where cryptocurrency
5700
04:38:42,240 --> 04:38:47,520
plays a major role, either as a direct
5701
04:38:45,039 --> 04:38:51,879
form of payment, a converted asset, or
5702
04:38:47,520 --> 04:38:51,879
collateral for purchasing property.
5703
04:38:59,359 --> 04:39:02,359
Bitcoins
5704
04:39:19,279 --> 04:39:23,480
Crypto reference loans.
5705
04:39:43,120 --> 04:39:48,080
But the concept goes even deeper than
5706
04:39:45,840 --> 04:39:50,000
that. Crypto real estate includes buying
5707
04:39:48,080 --> 04:39:52,080
a home directly with Bitcoin or other
5708
04:39:50,000 --> 04:39:55,200
cryptocurrencies, using stable coins
5709
04:39:52,080 --> 04:39:58,160
like USDT or USDC for a more stable
5710
04:39:55,200 --> 04:40:00,080
purchase, converting crypto into fiat at
5711
04:39:58,160 --> 04:40:01,520
closing, taking out loans backed by
5712
04:40:00,080 --> 04:40:03,280
cryptocurrency to purchase real
5713
04:40:01,520 --> 04:40:05,200
property, tokenized real estate where
5714
04:40:03,280 --> 04:40:06,878
ownership is fractionalized into digital
5715
04:40:05,200 --> 04:40:08,480
token, blockchain based property
5716
04:40:06,878 --> 04:40:11,480
records, and smart contract driven
5717
04:40:08,480 --> 04:40:11,480
transactions.
5718
04:40:23,680 --> 04:40:27,080
Stable coins.
5719
04:40:40,320 --> 04:40:43,718
Stable coins.
5720
04:40:52,400 --> 04:40:57,638
EMT. E A R
5721
04:40:58,000 --> 04:41:01,000
E
5722
04:41:04,000 --> 04:41:10,200
10
5723
04:41:06,080 --> 04:41:10,200
U US USDT
5724
04:41:14,000 --> 04:41:17,000
USDC
5725
04:41:29,440 --> 04:41:32,440
US
5726
04:41:36,798 --> 04:41:40,280
stable coinry.
5727
04:42:01,040 --> 04:42:04,040
for
5728
04:42:23,040 --> 04:42:26,440
stable coins.
5729
04:42:32,480 --> 04:42:36,878
It's an evolution in how value moves
5730
04:42:34,718 --> 04:42:39,040
around the world. And for the first
5731
04:42:36,878 --> 04:42:43,200
time, digital wealth is becoming a
5732
04:42:39,040 --> 04:42:43,200
direct pathway to physical ownership.
5733
04:42:45,040 --> 04:42:48,798
To understand how we arrived at this
5734
04:42:47,040 --> 04:42:51,440
moment, we need to step back and look at
5735
04:42:48,798 --> 04:42:53,520
the timeline. Bitcoin launched in 2009
5736
04:42:51,440 --> 04:42:55,360
as a peer-to-peer digital alternative to
5737
04:42:53,520 --> 04:42:57,200
money. In its early years, the idea of
5738
04:42:55,360 --> 04:42:59,520
using Bitcoin to buy real estate was
5739
04:42:57,200 --> 04:43:01,840
laughable. But Bitcoin grew, first
5740
04:42:59,520 --> 04:43:04,320
crossing $1, then a 100, then a
5741
04:43:01,840 --> 04:43:06,958
thousand, then tens of thousands. A new
5742
04:43:04,320 --> 04:43:08,958
wave of wealth was created. Suddenly,
5743
04:43:06,958 --> 04:43:11,040
early adopters who once bought pizza
5744
04:43:08,958 --> 04:43:14,080
with Bitcoin now had enough digital
5745
04:43:11,040 --> 04:43:16,480
value to buy entire homes, and sellers
5746
04:43:14,080 --> 04:43:18,480
began paying attention. The first public
5747
04:43:16,480 --> 04:43:21,600
record of a property purchased fully in
5748
04:43:18,480 --> 04:43:23,840
Bitcoin dates back to 2017. From there,
5749
04:43:21,600 --> 04:43:26,320
the trend spread to luxury markets.
5750
04:43:23,840 --> 04:43:28,718
Miami, Los Angeles, New York, Dubai, and
5751
04:43:26,320 --> 04:43:30,560
London. Developers began marketing
5752
04:43:28,718 --> 04:43:33,280
properties specifically to crypto
5753
04:43:30,560 --> 04:43:36,160
buyers. Brokers started specializing in
5754
04:43:33,280 --> 04:43:37,680
crypto transactions. Escrow companies
5755
04:43:36,160 --> 04:43:39,520
adapted.
5756
04:43:37,680 --> 04:43:42,878
Even governments began studying
5757
04:43:39,520 --> 04:43:45,360
blockchainbased property registries.
5758
04:43:42,878 --> 04:43:47,840
Buying real estate with Bitcoin isn't
5759
04:43:45,360 --> 04:43:49,760
science fiction. Some sellers now accept
5760
04:43:47,840 --> 04:43:51,760
crypto directly, while others work
5761
04:43:49,760 --> 04:43:54,958
through brokers who convert Bitcoin into
5762
04:43:51,760 --> 04:43:57,040
local currency. The process is faster,
5763
04:43:54,958 --> 04:43:59,360
borderless, and sometimes even tax
5764
04:43:57,040 --> 04:44:01,840
efficient if you know the rules. Things
5765
04:43:59,360 --> 04:44:04,560
that sounded impossible in 2010 became
5766
04:44:01,840 --> 04:44:07,120
normal by 2020. And now [music] in the
5767
04:44:04,560 --> 04:44:09,200
2020s, cryptocurrency is becoming a
5768
04:44:07,120 --> 04:44:11,600
serious player in global real estate.
5769
04:44:09,200 --> 04:44:12,638
The crypto boom has created a new class
5770
04:44:11,600 --> 04:44:14,480
of investors. [music]
5771
04:44:12,638 --> 04:44:16,958
High- netw worth individuals want to
5772
04:44:14,480 --> 04:44:19,440
diversify, and real estate is a safe,
5773
04:44:16,958 --> 04:44:22,292
tangible asset. From luxury homes in
5774
04:44:19,440 --> 04:44:24,240
Miami to condos in Dubai, Bitcoin buyers
5775
04:44:22,292 --> 04:44:26,400
[music] are making their mark. Let's
5776
04:44:24,240 --> 04:44:28,160
look at a few real world examples to
5777
04:44:26,400 --> 04:44:31,840
understand how crypto real estate works
5778
04:44:28,160 --> 04:44:34,320
in practice. Case study one. In 2021, a
5779
04:44:31,840 --> 04:44:36,878
luxury penthouse at Arte by Antonio
5780
04:44:34,320 --> 04:44:40,320
Satario in Surfside, Florida made
5781
04:44:36,878 --> 04:44:43,360
history. The property sold for $22.5
5782
04:44:40,320 --> 04:44:45,360
million paid entirely in cryptocurrency.
5783
04:44:43,360 --> 04:44:47,520
The largest publicly known real estate
5784
04:44:45,360 --> 04:44:49,280
transaction completed using digital
5785
04:44:47,520 --> 04:44:50,718
assets [music] at the time. A
5786
04:44:49,280 --> 04:44:53,040
developer's decision to accept
5787
04:44:50,718 --> 04:44:55,120
cryptocurrency had paid off. The sale
5788
04:44:53,040 --> 04:44:56,798
came just weeks after the developer
5789
04:44:55,120 --> 04:44:58,560
announced it would begin accepting
5790
04:44:56,798 --> 04:44:59,680
cryptocurrency payments through a
5791
04:44:58,560 --> 04:45:01,520
partnership with blockchain [music]
5792
04:44:59,680 --> 04:45:03,360
platform Solid Block. According to
5793
04:45:01,520 --> 04:45:05,680
Forbes, the deal demonstrated that
5794
04:45:03,360 --> 04:45:08,480
crypto was no longer just a speculative
5795
04:45:05,680 --> 04:45:10,958
asset. It had become a viable method for
5796
04:45:08,480 --> 04:45:13,760
purchasing high-end real estate. Case
5797
04:45:10,958 --> 04:45:15,360
study 2. in Dubai. One of the earliest
5798
04:45:13,760 --> 04:45:17,840
large-scale experiments [music] with
5799
04:45:15,360 --> 04:45:20,480
crypto real estate unfolded at Aston
5800
04:45:17,840 --> 04:45:22,878
Plaza and residences located in Dubai
5801
04:45:20,480 --> 04:45:24,518
Science Park. Marketed as one of the
5802
04:45:22,878 --> 04:45:26,718
first major developments in the region
5803
04:45:24,518 --> 04:45:28,878
[music] to accept Bitcoin, the project
5804
04:45:26,718 --> 04:45:30,480
offered apartments priced directly in
5805
04:45:28,878 --> 04:45:32,480
cryptocurrency.
5806
04:45:30,480 --> 04:45:35,200
Buyers were able to commit funds using
5807
04:45:32,480 --> 04:45:37,040
Bitcoin, capturing global attention. But
5808
04:45:35,200 --> 04:45:40,000
the story also revealed the risks of
5809
04:45:37,040 --> 04:45:41,280
innovation. Originally advertised as a
5810
04:45:40,000 --> 04:45:43,840
$325 [music]
5811
04:45:41,280 --> 04:45:45,280
million development, the project later
5812
04:45:43,840 --> 04:45:47,840
stalled and its completion [music]
5813
04:45:45,280 --> 04:45:50,160
became uncertain. While crypto payments
5814
04:45:47,840 --> 04:45:52,638
were accepted, it remains unclear
5815
04:45:50,160 --> 04:45:54,718
whether all buyers ultimately received
5816
04:45:52,638 --> 04:45:56,480
finished properties. The case
5817
04:45:54,718 --> 04:45:58,578
highlighted both the promise and the
5818
04:45:56,480 --> 04:46:01,520
pitfalls of early crypto adoption
5819
04:45:58,578 --> 04:46:03,840
[music] real estate. Case study three.
5820
04:46:01,520 --> 04:46:05,680
In 2025, Spain recorded one of [music]
5821
04:46:03,840 --> 04:46:08,400
its first officially reported property
5822
04:46:05,680 --> 04:46:10,368
sales completed with Bitcoin. A property
5823
04:46:08,400 --> 04:46:12,560
in Madrid valued at approximately
5824
04:46:10,368 --> 04:46:14,160
[music] 1.5 million of euros was
5825
04:46:12,560 --> 04:46:16,560
purchased by an international buyer
5826
04:46:14,160 --> 04:46:18,878
using Bitcoin. The transaction followed
5827
04:46:16,560 --> 04:46:21,440
standard real estate procedures,
5828
04:46:18,878 --> 04:46:23,680
including escrow, legal compliance, and
5829
04:46:21,440 --> 04:46:25,680
the conversion of crypto into euros for
5830
04:46:23,680 --> 04:46:27,760
the seller. It marked a significant
5831
04:46:25,680 --> 04:46:29,520
milestone showing that cryptocurrency
5832
04:46:27,760 --> 04:46:31,920
could integrate into traditional real
5833
04:46:29,520 --> 04:46:34,958
estate systems even in highly regulated
5834
04:46:31,920 --> 04:46:37,360
European markets. Case study 4. In the
5835
04:46:34,958 --> 04:46:39,920
United States, crypto adoption hasn't
5836
04:46:37,360 --> 04:46:42,560
been limited to coastal tech hubs. An
5837
04:46:39,920 --> 04:46:44,718
agent with Safaby International Realy in
5838
04:46:42,560 --> 04:46:47,680
Delaware reported selling a luxury
5839
04:46:44,718 --> 04:46:49,840
property [music] for $175 million paid
5840
04:46:47,680 --> 04:46:51,840
in Bitcoin. Believed to be one of the
5841
04:46:49,840 --> 04:46:54,160
state's first major real estate
5842
04:46:51,840 --> 04:46:56,400
transactions involving cryptocurrency,
5843
04:46:54,160 --> 04:46:58,638
the sale was widely publicized as a
5844
04:46:56,400 --> 04:47:00,160
local milestone, signaling that crypto
5845
04:46:58,638 --> 04:47:02,000
real estate was beginning to reach
5846
04:47:00,160 --> 04:47:06,120
beyond niche [music] markets and into
5847
04:47:02,000 --> 04:47:06,120
everyday property transactions.
5848
04:47:06,718 --> 04:47:10,200
Genius Act.
5849
04:47:11,284 --> 04:47:13,302
[music]
5850
04:47:17,178 --> 04:47:21,080
[music]
5851
04:47:18,080 --> 04:47:21,080
Apostable
5852
04:47:23,280 --> 04:47:26,280
coins.
5853
04:47:52,718 --> 04:47:55,718
prote.
5854
04:48:16,080 --> 04:48:19,638
Conservator. for us.
5855
04:48:28,958 --> 04:48:31,958
really.
5856
04:48:57,760 --> 04:49:02,320
Taken together, these cases tell a
5857
04:48:59,680 --> 04:49:04,480
larger story, one of experimentation,
5858
04:49:02,320 --> 04:49:06,798
success, setbacks, and growing
5859
04:49:04,480 --> 04:49:09,120
legitimacy. Crypto real estate is no
5860
04:49:06,798 --> 04:49:11,280
longer hypothetical. It's happening
5861
04:49:09,120 --> 04:49:15,040
transaction by transaction across the
5862
04:49:11,280 --> 04:49:16,878
globe. But it's not all smooth sailing.
5863
04:49:15,040 --> 04:49:19,280
Crypto's value can be volatile.
5864
04:49:16,878 --> 04:49:21,760
Regulations vary by country, and tax
5865
04:49:19,280 --> 04:49:24,080
implications can be tricky. First,
5866
04:49:21,760 --> 04:49:26,240
volatility. Bitcoin and other
5867
04:49:24,080 --> 04:49:28,080
cryptocurrencies can move dramatically,
5868
04:49:26,240 --> 04:49:29,920
sometimes losing or gaining a third of
5869
04:49:28,080 --> 04:49:32,240
their value in weeks. For buyers who
5870
04:49:29,920 --> 04:49:35,680
convert at closing, rapid swings can
5871
04:49:32,240 --> 04:49:38,798
erase gains or spike costs in hours.
5872
04:49:35,680 --> 04:49:40,958
Second, transaction mechanics and title.
5873
04:49:38,798 --> 04:49:42,958
Even when a seller accepts crypto, most
5874
04:49:40,958 --> 04:49:44,400
governments and land registries require
5875
04:49:42,958 --> 04:49:46,798
deeds to be issued in the local
5876
04:49:44,400 --> 04:49:48,958
currency. That usually means an
5877
04:49:46,798 --> 04:49:50,878
intermediary converts crypto to fiat
5878
04:49:48,958 --> 04:49:53,120
before the legal title is registered,
5879
04:49:50,878 --> 04:49:54,798
adding counterparty risk and an extra
5880
04:49:53,120 --> 04:49:57,680
step that can delay and complicate
5881
04:49:54,798 --> 04:49:59,440
settlements. Third, taxes. In many
5882
04:49:57,680 --> 04:50:01,520
jurisdictions, authorities treat crypto
5883
04:49:59,440 --> 04:50:03,440
as property, not currency, which makes
5884
04:50:01,520 --> 04:50:05,760
nearly every transfer a taxable event.
5885
04:50:03,440 --> 04:50:07,840
That includes sales, exchanges, and
5886
04:50:05,760 --> 04:50:10,000
sometimes even payments for goods or
5887
04:50:07,840 --> 04:50:12,240
services. Buyers and sellers must track
5888
04:50:10,000 --> 04:50:14,400
cost basis gains and report the
5889
04:50:12,240 --> 04:50:16,958
transactions accurately or face audits
5890
04:50:14,400 --> 04:50:18,878
and penalties. Fourth, lending and
5891
04:50:16,958 --> 04:50:20,480
counterparty risk. Cryptobacked lending
5892
04:50:18,878 --> 04:50:22,320
exploded in the previous market cycle,
5893
04:50:20,480 --> 04:50:24,560
but it ended with high-profile collapses
5894
04:50:22,320 --> 04:50:26,400
and bankruptcies. When platforms fail,
5895
04:50:24,560 --> 04:50:28,320
borrowers and depositors can lose access
5896
04:50:26,400 --> 04:50:30,000
to funds. Collateral can be liquidated
5897
04:50:28,320 --> 04:50:31,840
at a loss and promise liquidity
5898
04:50:30,000 --> 04:50:33,680
disappears, a danger for anyone relying
5899
04:50:31,840 --> 04:50:35,840
on thirdparty services to bridge crypto
5900
04:50:33,680 --> 04:50:37,200
and property purchases.
5901
04:50:35,840 --> 04:50:39,680
Fifth, compliance and
5902
04:50:37,200 --> 04:50:41,360
anti-moneylaundering rules. Regulators
5903
04:50:39,680 --> 04:50:43,280
and global bodies have tightened rules
5904
04:50:41,360 --> 04:50:45,440
around virtual assets to prevent elicit
5905
04:50:43,280 --> 04:50:47,840
flows. Real estate transactions are high
5906
04:50:45,440 --> 04:50:49,520
on that list, meaning additional KYC,
5907
04:50:47,840 --> 04:50:51,680
source of fund checks, and reporting
5908
04:50:49,520 --> 04:50:53,520
requirements. Failure to meet these
5909
04:50:51,680 --> 04:50:55,760
standards can stall a sale, trigger
5910
04:50:53,520 --> 04:50:58,958
investigations, or expose participants
5911
04:50:55,760 --> 04:51:01,200
to legal liability. Sixth, operational
5912
04:50:58,958 --> 04:51:03,040
and technical risk. Crypto transactions
5913
04:51:01,200 --> 04:51:04,560
are irreversible. A single wrong
5914
04:51:03,040 --> 04:51:06,240
character in a wallet address or a
5915
04:51:04,560 --> 04:51:08,000
fishing attack on an email with wiring
5916
04:51:06,240 --> 04:51:09,360
instructions can send millions to the
5917
04:51:08,000 --> 04:51:11,200
wrong place and there's no bank to
5918
04:51:09,360 --> 04:51:13,120
reverse the transfer. Seventh,
5919
04:51:11,200 --> 04:51:15,200
technology risk. Smart contracts
5920
04:51:13,120 --> 04:51:17,040
tokenization and new platforms bring
5921
04:51:15,200 --> 04:51:18,878
innovation, but also software bugs and
5922
04:51:17,040 --> 04:51:21,040
design flaws. A poorly written smart
5923
04:51:18,878 --> 04:51:23,280
contract or an unodudited tokenization
5924
04:51:21,040 --> 04:51:26,080
platform can freeze assets, misallocate
5925
04:51:23,280 --> 04:51:28,798
ownership shares, or enable exploits.
5926
04:51:26,080 --> 04:51:30,400
Finally, market and reputational risk.
5927
04:51:28,798 --> 04:51:32,080
Developers and brokers who accept crypto
5928
04:51:30,400 --> 04:51:33,920
can attract new buyers, but they also
5929
04:51:32,080 --> 04:51:35,680
take on greater scrutiny, regulatory
5930
04:51:33,920 --> 04:51:37,520
compliance burdens, and the risk that
5931
04:51:35,680 --> 04:51:39,680
projects promoted with crypto funding
5932
04:51:37,520 --> 04:51:42,718
may underdel, stall, or become entangled
5933
04:51:39,680 --> 04:51:45,040
in legal disputes. In short, crypto can
5934
04:51:42,718 --> 04:51:47,680
speed and globalize property deals. But
5935
04:51:45,040 --> 04:51:50,320
it also layers on volatility, regulatory
5936
04:51:47,680 --> 04:51:52,400
complexity, and new failure modes. For
5937
04:51:50,320 --> 04:51:54,718
buyers, sellers, and advisers, the
5938
04:51:52,400 --> 04:51:56,560
lesson is clear. proceed with rigorous
5939
04:51:54,718 --> 04:51:59,040
legal counsel, hardened custody
5940
04:51:56,560 --> 04:52:01,120
practices, and transparent compliance.
5941
04:51:59,040 --> 04:52:04,120
The opportunity is real, but so are the
5942
04:52:01,120 --> 04:52:04,120
pitfalls.
5943
04:52:22,718 --> 04:52:27,840
Still, the opportunities are huge. A new
5944
04:52:25,760 --> 04:52:30,240
generation of buyers is turning digital
5945
04:52:27,840 --> 04:52:32,718
value into physical assets. For many,
5946
04:52:30,240 --> 04:52:35,440
Bitcoin isn't just a [music] currency.
5947
04:52:32,718 --> 04:52:36,718
It's a gateway to ownership.
5948
04:52:35,440 --> 04:52:38,788
One of the biggest shifts is
5949
04:52:36,718 --> 04:52:40,798
tokenization. Instead of buying an
5950
04:52:38,788 --> 04:52:42,638
[music] entire building, investors can
5951
04:52:40,798 --> 04:52:45,120
now purchase fractional ownership
5952
04:52:42,638 --> 04:52:46,878
through blockchainbased tokens. This
5953
04:52:45,120 --> 04:52:48,878
lowers the barrier to entry, allowing
5954
04:52:46,878 --> 04:52:50,480
smaller investors to access real estate
5955
04:52:48,878 --> 04:52:51,760
markets that were once reserved for
5956
04:52:50,480 --> 04:52:54,760
institutions and [music] the ultra
5957
04:52:51,760 --> 04:52:54,760
wealthy.
5958
04:53:00,798 --> 04:53:03,798
forch.
5959
04:53:10,226 --> 04:53:12,246
[music]
5960
04:53:29,876 --> 04:53:31,896
>> [music]
5961
04:53:37,738 --> 04:53:42,080
[music]
5962
04:53:39,200 --> 04:53:44,080
>> Tokenization also brings liquidity to an
5963
04:53:42,080 --> 04:53:46,480
industry that has traditionally been
5964
04:53:44,080 --> 04:53:48,240
slow and illquid. Real estate
5965
04:53:46,480 --> 04:53:50,320
transactions [music] can take months.
5966
04:53:48,240 --> 04:53:53,200
Tokenized shares can potentially be
5967
04:53:50,320 --> 04:53:55,520
transferred in minutes. Crypto is also
5968
04:53:53,200 --> 04:53:57,760
reshaping crossber real estate.
5969
04:53:55,520 --> 04:53:59,200
International buyers often face currency
5970
04:53:57,760 --> 04:54:01,920
controls, wire delays, [music] and
5971
04:53:59,200 --> 04:54:03,840
banking restrictions. Cryptocurrency
5972
04:54:01,920 --> 04:54:05,360
allows capital to move globally with
5973
04:54:03,840 --> 04:54:07,200
fewer friction points, [music] opening
5974
04:54:05,360 --> 04:54:09,360
markets to buyers who were previously
5975
04:54:07,200 --> 04:54:11,280
locked out. As a result, cities that
5976
04:54:09,360 --> 04:54:13,280
embrace crypto-friendly regulations are
5977
04:54:11,280 --> 04:54:15,040
attracting global capital faster.
5978
04:54:13,280 --> 04:54:16,400
Developers are responding by marketing
5979
04:54:15,040 --> 04:54:18,638
properties directly to crypto [music]
5980
04:54:16,400 --> 04:54:20,798
holders, not as a novelty, but as a
5981
04:54:18,638 --> 04:54:22,320
strategy. Governments are also exploring
5982
04:54:20,798 --> 04:54:24,638
blockchain for land registries [music]
5983
04:54:22,320 --> 04:54:26,560
and property records. Immutable ledgers
5984
04:54:24,638 --> 04:54:28,240
can reduce disputes, prevent title
5985
04:54:26,560 --> 04:54:30,480
fraud, [music] and provide permanent
5986
04:54:28,240 --> 04:54:32,080
verifiable ownership history, especially
5987
04:54:30,480 --> 04:54:34,400
in regions where property rights are
5988
04:54:32,080 --> 04:54:36,480
difficult to enforce. This isn't a
5989
04:54:34,400 --> 04:54:39,200
complete replacement of traditional real
5990
04:54:36,480 --> 04:54:40,878
estate. It's a transformation. Crypto
5991
04:54:39,200 --> 04:54:43,120
doesn't eliminate the fundamentals.
5992
04:54:40,878 --> 04:54:44,638
Location, demand, and due diligence
5993
04:54:43,120 --> 04:54:46,638
still matter, but [music] it changes how
5994
04:54:44,638 --> 04:54:48,798
value moves, how quickly deals happen,
5995
04:54:46,638 --> 04:54:50,798
and who gets access. So, what does all
5996
04:54:48,798 --> 04:54:52,560
of this mean for you as an investor or
5997
04:54:50,798 --> 04:54:54,000
future home buyer? It means new
5998
04:54:52,560 --> 04:54:55,920
opportunities are emerging.
5999
04:54:54,000 --> 04:54:58,240
Opportunities to leverage your crypto
6000
04:54:55,920 --> 04:55:00,160
holdings. Opportunities to participate
6001
04:54:58,240 --> 04:55:02,240
in [music] international markets more
6002
04:55:00,160 --> 04:55:04,200
easily. Opportunities to acquire
6003
04:55:02,240 --> 04:55:06,218
property faster and more efficiently.
6004
04:55:04,200 --> 04:55:06,218
[music]
6005
04:55:12,878 --> 04:55:15,878
Professor,
6006
04:55:21,882 --> 04:55:23,902
[music]
6007
04:55:27,120 --> 04:55:30,120
Bureaucratic
6008
04:55:31,708 --> 04:55:33,728
[music]
6009
04:55:44,154 --> 04:55:46,174
[music]
6010
04:55:55,290 --> 04:56:00,040
>> [music]
6011
04:55:56,878 --> 04:56:00,040
>> Real estate
6012
04:56:05,920 --> 04:56:08,444
Foreign [music]
6013
04:56:16,904 --> 04:56:18,924
[music]
6014
04:56:37,866 --> 04:56:39,884
>> [music]
6015
04:56:46,320 --> 04:56:51,520
>> But like any emerging space, education
6016
04:56:49,280 --> 04:56:53,680
is key. Working with crypto friendly
6017
04:56:51,520 --> 04:56:56,160
agents, attorneys, and [music] escrow
6018
04:56:53,680 --> 04:56:58,240
companies is essential.
6019
04:56:56,160 --> 04:57:00,000
Understanding your local regulations is
6020
04:56:58,240 --> 04:57:01,680
crucial, and ensuring the security of
6021
04:57:00,000 --> 04:57:03,410
your crypto wallet is absolutely
6022
04:57:01,680 --> 04:57:04,000
non-negotiable.
6023
04:57:03,410 --> 04:57:07,000
[music]
6024
04:57:04,000 --> 04:57:07,000
Activos.
6025
04:57:15,200 --> 04:57:17,218
>> [music]
6026
04:57:42,958 --> 04:57:45,120
>> compliment.
6027
04:57:47,294 --> 04:57:49,314
>> [music]
6028
04:57:52,160 --> 04:57:55,160
>> Composition.
6029
04:58:01,050 --> 04:58:03,070
>> [music]
6030
04:58:13,496 --> 04:58:15,516
[music]
6031
04:58:17,680 --> 04:58:20,680
>> Funament
6032
04:58:29,872 --> 04:58:34,680
[music]
6033
04:58:31,680 --> 04:58:34,680
Maximos
6034
04:58:41,280 --> 04:58:44,280
Maximastoch.
6035
04:58:47,556 --> 04:58:49,576
[music]
6036
04:58:54,106 --> 04:58:56,124
[music]
6037
04:59:07,208 --> 04:59:10,480
[music]
6038
04:59:08,560 --> 04:59:12,560
The cryptocurrency market has entered
6039
04:59:10,480 --> 04:59:14,958
the opening days of 2026 with [music]
6040
04:59:12,560 --> 04:59:17,920
renewed momentum. After a volatile end
6041
04:59:14,958 --> 04:59:19,440
to 2025, prices across major digital
6042
04:59:17,920 --> 04:59:21,120
assets have moved sharply higher,
6043
04:59:19,440 --> 04:59:23,582
drawing attention from both retail
6044
04:59:21,120 --> 04:59:25,280
traders and institutional investors. In
6045
04:59:23,582 --> 04:59:27,120
[music] early January, the total
6046
04:59:25,280 --> 04:59:29,680
cryptocurrency market capitalization
6047
04:59:27,120 --> 04:59:31,760
climbed to around $3.2 trillion,
6048
04:59:29,680 --> 04:59:32,752
according to aggregated data from major
6049
04:59:31,760 --> 04:59:32,878
market trackers.
6050
04:59:32,752 --> 04:59:34,560
>> [music]
6051
04:59:32,878 --> 04:59:37,120
>> This represents a meaningful rebound
6052
04:59:34,560 --> 04:59:38,638
from late 2025 levels with the market
6053
04:59:37,120 --> 04:59:40,798
adding hundreds of billions of dollars
6054
04:59:38,638 --> 04:59:42,798
in value over a relatively short period.
6055
04:59:40,798 --> 04:59:44,560
While exact figures vary, the direction
6056
04:59:42,798 --> 04:59:46,080
is clear. Capital has returned to the
6057
04:59:44,560 --> 04:59:47,920
crypto market at the start of the year.
6058
04:59:46,080 --> 04:59:50,480
At the center of this move is Bitcoin,
6059
04:59:47,920 --> 04:59:52,798
which rallied toward the $93,000 level
6060
04:59:50,480 --> 04:59:54,320
in the first week of January. As the
6061
04:59:52,798 --> 04:59:56,638
largest and most influential [music]
6062
04:59:54,320 --> 04:59:58,560
digital asset, Bitcoin continues to act
6063
04:59:56,638 --> 04:59:59,600
as the market's primary anchor, and its
6064
04:59:58,560 --> 05:00:02,080
strength has [music] helped lift
6065
04:59:59,600 --> 05:00:03,920
sentiment across the broader ecosystem.
6066
05:00:02,080 --> 05:00:06,000
Historically, strong Bitcoin [music]
6067
05:00:03,920 --> 05:00:08,240
performance has often preceded periods
6068
05:00:06,000 --> 05:00:10,718
of increased activity in alternative
6069
05:00:08,240 --> 05:00:12,160
cryptocurrencies, and [music] early 2026
6070
05:00:10,718 --> 05:00:14,240
appears to be following a similar
6071
05:00:12,160 --> 05:00:16,240
pattern. Another key factor has been
6072
05:00:14,240 --> 05:00:18,000
renewed institutional participation,
6073
05:00:16,240 --> 05:00:20,160
particularly through spot Bitcoin and
6074
05:00:18,000 --> 05:00:22,160
Ethereum exchange [music] traded funds.
6075
05:00:20,160 --> 05:00:24,240
Reports from early January indicate
6076
05:00:22,160 --> 05:00:26,000
notable ETF inflows, suggesting that
6077
05:00:24,240 --> 05:00:28,000
traditional investors are once again
6078
05:00:26,000 --> 05:00:29,600
increasing exposure to digital assets.
6079
05:00:28,000 --> 05:00:31,046
The current momentum appears to be
6080
05:00:29,600 --> 05:00:33,200
driven by a combination of factors,
6081
05:00:31,046 --> 05:00:35,840
[music] including Bitcoin's price
6082
05:00:33,200 --> 05:00:37,840
recovery, increased ETF inflows, [music]
6083
05:00:35,840 --> 05:00:39,440
improved global risk sentiment,
6084
05:00:37,840 --> 05:00:41,840
expectations of more supportive
6085
05:00:39,440 --> 05:00:43,520
regulatory and macroeconomic conditions.
6086
05:00:41,840 --> 05:00:45,680
As 2026 begins, [music] the
6087
05:00:43,520 --> 05:00:47,840
cryptocurrency market finds itself at a
6088
05:00:45,680 --> 05:00:49,680
familiar crossroads. Renewed optimism
6089
05:00:47,840 --> 05:00:51,600
balanced against persistent uncertainty.
6090
05:00:49,680 --> 05:00:53,440
Whether this earlier strength marks the
6091
05:00:51,600 --> 05:00:55,120
beginning of a sustained trend or simply
6092
05:00:53,440 --> 05:00:57,120
another chapter in crypto's cyclical
6093
05:00:55,120 --> 05:00:59,760
nature is a question that only time will
6094
05:00:57,120 --> 05:01:02,480
answer. For now, the [music] message
6095
05:00:59,760 --> 05:01:04,480
from the market is clear. Crypto is once
6096
05:01:02,480 --> 05:01:06,080
again commanding attention. If you
6097
05:01:04,480 --> 05:01:07,728
approach crypto real estate with
6098
05:01:06,080 --> 05:01:10,480
knowledge and preparation, the rewards
6099
05:01:07,728 --> 05:01:13,200
[music] can be extraordinary. Bitcoin
6100
05:01:10,480 --> 05:01:14,958
the bricks isn't just a catchy phrase.
6101
05:01:13,200 --> 05:01:17,440
It's the future of real estate
6102
05:01:14,958 --> 05:01:19,360
investment. If you want to stay ahead of
6103
05:01:17,440 --> 05:01:21,600
the curve, now's the [music] time to
6104
05:01:19,360 --> 05:01:24,600
learn how crypto can open doors.
6105
05:01:21,600 --> 05:01:24,600
Literally.
6106
05:01:35,200 --> 05:01:38,200
Explorer
6107
05:01:48,338 --> 05:01:50,358
[music]
6108
05:01:54,878 --> 05:01:57,878
control.
6109
05:01:58,818 --> 05:02:00,838
[music]
6110
05:02:04,712 --> 05:02:06,732
>> [music]
6111
05:02:21,520 --> 05:02:25,360
>> From digital coins to physical assets,
6112
05:02:23,680 --> 05:02:27,200
from online wallets to real world
6113
05:02:25,360 --> 05:02:29,520
property [music] lines, cryptocurrency
6114
05:02:27,200 --> 05:02:31,360
is reshaping how we buy, sell, and think
6115
05:02:29,520 --> 05:02:33,280
about real estate. [music] We are
6116
05:02:31,360 --> 05:02:35,600
witnessing the merging of two worlds,
6117
05:02:33,280 --> 05:02:37,280
the oldest asset on earth and one of the
6118
05:02:35,600 --> 05:02:40,160
newest technological inventions [music]
6119
05:02:37,280 --> 05:02:42,878
of our time. And as the future unfolds,
6120
05:02:40,160 --> 05:02:46,840
only one question remain. Will Bitcoin
6121
05:02:42,878 --> 05:02:46,840
buy your next home?
6122
05:04:10,160 --> 05:04:15,600
September 2008.
6123
05:04:13,040 --> 05:04:18,240
The global financial system is on the
6124
05:04:15,600 --> 05:04:21,200
verge of a total blackout. Layman
6125
05:04:18,240 --> 05:04:24,230
Brothers has vanished. Meil Lynch is
6126
05:04:21,200 --> 05:04:26,958
gone. AIG is hemorrhaging billions
6127
05:04:24,230 --> 05:04:29,280
[music] every hour.
6128
05:04:26,958 --> 05:04:31,200
In Washington, the halls of the Treasury
6129
05:04:29,280 --> 05:04:34,480
are filled with the smartest minds in
6130
05:04:31,200 --> 05:04:37,360
the country. But they have a problem.
6131
05:04:34,480 --> 05:04:40,320
They are staring at a black box of toxic
6132
05:04:37,360 --> 05:04:43,360
debt worth trillions and no tools to
6133
05:04:40,320 --> 05:04:46,400
open it. There is only one person who
6134
05:04:43,360 --> 05:04:48,878
has the map. One person who spent the
6135
05:04:46,400 --> 05:04:51,120
last 20 years building a digital
6136
05:04:48,878 --> 05:04:53,840
unblinking eye that can see through the
6137
05:04:51,120 --> 05:04:55,680
wreckage. The government didn't call the
6138
05:04:53,840 --> 05:04:57,920
big banks to save the world. [music]
6139
05:04:55,680 --> 05:05:00,400
They needed someone to handle the toxic
6140
05:04:57,920 --> 05:05:03,040
waste. And there was only one man that
6141
05:05:00,400 --> 05:05:07,480
could lead through that darkness.
6142
05:05:03,040 --> 05:05:07,480
They called Larry Frink.
6143
05:05:08,878 --> 05:05:14,600
Larry Frink, the man behind Black Rock.
6144
05:05:14,666 --> 05:05:17,440
[music]
6145
05:05:15,280 --> 05:05:21,760
Today, he manages more money than the
6146
05:05:17,440 --> 05:05:24,000
GDP of almost every nation on Earth. $14
6147
05:05:21,760 --> 05:05:26,000
trillion. [music]
6148
05:05:24,000 --> 05:05:27,920
But before he was the shadow sovereign
6149
05:05:26,000 --> 05:05:30,000
of Wall Street, he [music] was a man who
6150
05:05:27,920 --> 05:05:34,080
lost everything.
6151
05:05:30,000 --> 05:05:36,000
Who is Larry Frink? Lawrence D.Fin, also
6152
05:05:34,080 --> 05:05:38,638
known as Larry Frink, is [music] one of
6153
05:05:36,000 --> 05:05:41,280
the co-founders of Black Rockck. He is
6154
05:05:38,638 --> 05:05:43,520
also the chairman and CEO of [music] the
6155
05:05:41,280 --> 05:05:46,106
company, the largest money management
6156
05:05:43,520 --> 05:05:47,840
firm in the world. It's the first
6157
05:05:46,106 --> 05:05:50,320
[music] time in history a company
6158
05:05:47,840 --> 05:05:52,160
manages to reach such a milestone and
6159
05:05:50,320 --> 05:05:54,878
gives a [music] clear picture of how
6160
05:05:52,160 --> 05:05:57,520
Black Rockck operates. Not just a
6161
05:05:54,878 --> 05:05:59,862
traditional investment bank, but as a
6162
05:05:57,520 --> 05:06:02,000
central pillar of the global financial
6163
05:05:59,862 --> 05:06:04,480
[music] infrastructure, where its sheer
6164
05:06:02,000 --> 05:06:06,718
scale allows it to influence economies
6165
05:06:04,480 --> 05:06:10,342
and industries at a level previously
6166
05:06:06,718 --> 05:06:11,040
reserved only for nation states.
6167
05:06:10,342 --> 05:06:13,920
>> [music]
6168
05:06:11,040 --> 05:06:16,878
>> Founded in 1988 as an investment firm
6169
05:06:13,920 --> 05:06:20,160
that prioritized risk management with
6170
05:06:16,878 --> 05:06:22,638
11.5 to [music] 14 trillion under
6171
05:06:20,160 --> 05:06:24,240
management, Black Rockck's influence is
6172
05:06:22,638 --> 05:06:26,480
staggering.
6173
05:06:24,240 --> 05:06:28,638
Black Rockck is a top three shareholder
6174
05:06:26,480 --> 05:06:32,718
in [music] nearly every company in the
6175
05:06:28,638 --> 05:06:35,920
S&P 500. From Apple to Exxon, from
6176
05:06:32,718 --> 05:06:38,638
Microsoft to Nestle. They don't just
6177
05:06:35,920 --> 05:06:40,320
invest in the market, they are the
6178
05:06:38,638 --> 05:06:42,718
market.
6179
05:06:40,320 --> 05:06:45,440
But its reach [music] is personal. It
6180
05:06:42,718 --> 05:06:48,560
holds the retirement dreams of over 35
6181
05:06:45,440 --> 05:06:51,200
million Americans. This is the story of
6182
05:06:48,560 --> 05:06:53,440
how a kid from a California shoe store
6183
05:06:51,200 --> 05:06:58,160
became the custodian of the world's
6184
05:06:53,440 --> 05:07:00,240
wealth. But who is Larry Frink? Lawrence
6185
05:06:58,160 --> 05:07:03,840
Douglas Frink [music] entered the world
6186
05:07:00,240 --> 05:07:05,280
on November the 2nd, 1952.
6187
05:07:03,840 --> 05:07:07,520
Born in Los Angeles, [music]
6188
05:07:05,280 --> 05:07:09,600
California, he was raised in a Jewish
6189
05:07:07,520 --> 05:07:11,440
family in the heart of San Fernando
6190
05:07:09,600 --> 05:07:15,040
Valley, [music] the quintessential
6191
05:07:11,440 --> 05:07:16,638
American suburb of Vanois.
6192
05:07:15,040 --> 05:07:19,840
His home was a [music] balance of
6193
05:07:16,638 --> 05:07:22,000
academic discipline and retail grit. His
6194
05:07:19,840 --> 05:07:23,840
mother, Leela, was an English professor
6195
05:07:22,000 --> 05:07:25,680
who valued the power [music] of language
6196
05:07:23,840 --> 05:07:27,600
and education.
6197
05:07:25,680 --> 05:07:29,920
And long before he pulled the strings of
6198
05:07:27,600 --> 05:07:32,080
the global economy, Larry Frink was
6199
05:07:29,920 --> 05:07:34,878
learning the value of money on a much
6200
05:07:32,080 --> 05:07:36,160
smaller scale. his father's shoe store
6201
05:07:34,878 --> 05:07:38,320
in Vanoise, [music]
6202
05:07:36,160 --> 05:07:41,280
where he spent evenings helping and
6203
05:07:38,320 --> 05:07:43,520
learning the business. As one of three
6204
05:07:41,280 --> 05:07:45,120
children, Larry grew up in a household
6205
05:07:43,520 --> 05:07:48,240
where hard [music] work wasn't just
6206
05:07:45,120 --> 05:07:50,080
encouraged, it was the baseline.
6207
05:07:48,240 --> 05:07:52,320
While he often joked [music] he wasn't
6208
05:07:50,080 --> 05:07:54,480
the smartest in the room, it was this
6209
05:07:52,320 --> 05:07:57,108
specific combination of his mother's
6210
05:07:54,480 --> 05:07:59,040
intellectual curiosity and his father's
6211
05:07:57,108 --> 05:08:01,440
[music] main street business sense that
6212
05:07:59,040 --> 05:08:04,560
would eventually form the DNA of a
6213
05:08:01,440 --> 05:08:06,278
global financial giant. While the future
6214
05:08:04,560 --> 05:08:08,000
titans of Wall Street were rubbing
6215
05:08:06,278 --> 05:08:11,840
[music] elbows in the marble halls of
6216
05:08:08,000 --> 05:08:13,040
Harvard or Yale, Think was a brewin. In
6217
05:08:11,840 --> 05:08:15,600
1970, [music]
6218
05:08:13,040 --> 05:08:18,080
Larry arrived at UCLA.
6219
05:08:15,600 --> 05:08:20,958
For a young man from Vanoise, this
6220
05:08:18,080 --> 05:08:24,320
wasn't just a local university. It was a
6221
05:08:20,958 --> 05:08:26,480
world of ideas. But it was in his final
6222
05:08:24,320 --> 05:08:28,718
years that the trajectory of his life
6223
05:08:26,480 --> 05:08:30,080
shifted. He immersed himself in
6224
05:08:28,718 --> 05:08:31,920
political science, [music]
6225
05:08:30,080 --> 05:08:34,878
learning how power moves through
6226
05:08:31,920 --> 05:08:36,718
nations. But he soon realized that in
6227
05:08:34,878 --> 05:08:39,680
the modern [music] world, power follows
6228
05:08:36,718 --> 05:08:40,798
the money. This led him to the Anderson
6229
05:08:39,680 --> 05:08:43,760
School of Management [music]
6230
05:08:40,798 --> 05:08:45,600
specializing in real estate. It was here
6231
05:08:43,760 --> 05:08:49,120
that he began to see the world through
6232
05:08:45,600 --> 05:08:51,120
the lens of assets and [music] yields.
6233
05:08:49,120 --> 05:08:53,200
This public education gave him a
6234
05:08:51,120 --> 05:08:55,360
different edge. While his [music] peers
6235
05:08:53,200 --> 05:08:57,600
at private East Coast schools were being
6236
05:08:55,360 --> 05:09:00,400
groomed for traditional corporate roles,
6237
05:08:57,600 --> 05:09:01,920
Larry was developing the outsider's eye,
6238
05:09:00,400 --> 05:09:03,920
a perspective that [music] allowed him
6239
05:09:01,920 --> 05:09:08,718
to see opportunities in the messy,
6240
05:09:03,920 --> 05:09:08,718
unpolished corners of the bond market.
6241
05:09:09,360 --> 05:09:15,200
He graduated [music] in 1976, not with a
6242
05:09:12,718 --> 05:09:16,798
silver spoon, but with a California bred
6243
05:09:15,200 --> 05:09:18,718
ambition to take on the [music] giants
6244
05:09:16,798 --> 05:09:21,360
of Manhattan.
6245
05:09:18,718 --> 05:09:23,568
He was a brewin headed for Wall Street,
6246
05:09:21,360 --> 05:09:27,080
and the financial world had no idea
6247
05:09:23,568 --> 05:09:27,080
[music] what was coming.
6248
05:09:29,200 --> 05:09:33,680
The year is 1976.
6249
05:09:31,840 --> 05:09:35,840
New York City is a grit cover
6250
05:09:33,680 --> 05:09:38,560
battlefield and Larry Frink has just
6251
05:09:35,840 --> 05:09:40,878
been handed the keys to the kingdom.
6252
05:09:38,560 --> 05:09:43,120
Goldman Sachs, the most prestigious name
6253
05:09:40,878 --> 05:09:46,400
in finance back then, has practically
6254
05:09:43,120 --> 05:09:49,440
hired him. He had passed the technical
6255
05:09:46,400 --> 05:09:51,280
tests. He had charmed the partners. All
6256
05:09:49,440 --> 05:09:53,840
that remained was a rubber stamp
6257
05:09:51,280 --> 05:09:57,200
interview with human resources.
6258
05:09:53,840 --> 05:09:59,840
But Larry, Larry wasn't just confident,
6259
05:09:57,200 --> 05:10:01,680
he was impatient. When the recruiter
6260
05:09:59,840 --> 05:10:04,160
asked for his thoughts on the firm,
6261
05:10:01,680 --> 05:10:06,798
Larry didn't give a thank you. He gave a
6262
05:10:04,160 --> 05:10:09,360
consultation. He pointed out the flaws
6263
05:10:06,798 --> 05:10:12,480
in their system. At Goldman, they wanted
6264
05:10:09,360 --> 05:10:15,718
a soldier. Larry was already acting like
6265
05:10:12,480 --> 05:10:15,718
a general.
6266
05:10:17,200 --> 05:10:22,560
In that room, the rigid Goldman way
6267
05:10:19,600 --> 05:10:24,718
clashed with the unfiltered Frink way.
6268
05:10:22,560 --> 05:10:28,000
Before he could even hail a camp back to
6269
05:10:24,718 --> 05:10:30,320
his hotel, the offer was dead. The most
6270
05:10:28,000 --> 05:10:32,638
coveted job in Wall Street history had
6271
05:10:30,320 --> 05:10:34,560
vanished. All because Larry Frink
6272
05:10:32,638 --> 05:10:37,920
couldn't stop himself from trying to fix
6273
05:10:34,560 --> 05:10:40,878
a system he hadn't even joined yet. It
6274
05:10:37,920 --> 05:10:43,360
was a crushing blow. But in the shadow
6275
05:10:40,878 --> 05:10:45,600
of that rejection, a door opened at a
6276
05:10:43,360 --> 05:10:48,080
scrappy second tier firm called First
6277
05:10:45,600 --> 05:10:51,440
Boston. It was a place with less
6278
05:10:48,080 --> 05:10:53,760
prestige but more white space. At
6279
05:10:51,440 --> 05:10:56,798
Goldman, he would have been a cog in a
6280
05:10:53,760 --> 05:10:59,680
perfect machine. At First Boston, he was
6281
05:10:56,798 --> 05:11:01,760
the architect. He was given a desk, a
6282
05:10:59,680 --> 05:11:04,000
telephone, and the freedom to build
6283
05:11:01,760 --> 05:11:06,878
something entirely new. The
6284
05:11:04,000 --> 05:11:09,600
mortgagebacked security. He didn't know
6285
05:11:06,878 --> 05:11:12,240
it yet, but that recruiters know was the
6286
05:11:09,600 --> 05:11:17,240
foundation upon which the $14 trillion
6287
05:11:12,240 --> 05:11:17,240
empire of Black Rockck would be built.
6288
05:11:20,814 --> 05:11:25,600
>> [music]
6289
05:11:22,320 --> 05:11:28,638
>> It's 1976 when Larry Frink arrives at
6290
05:11:25,600 --> 05:11:30,638
First Boston. At the time, the firm was
6291
05:11:28,638 --> 05:11:33,260
the scrappy underdog of investment
6292
05:11:30,638 --> 05:11:35,520
banking. It wasn't as stiff as Morgan
6293
05:11:33,260 --> 05:11:38,240
[music] Stanley or as elitist as
6294
05:11:35,520 --> 05:11:41,680
Goldman. It was the perfect laboratory
6295
05:11:38,240 --> 05:11:44,080
for a man who didn't fit the mold. Larry
6296
05:11:41,680 --> 05:11:46,240
was assigned to the bond department.
6297
05:11:44,080 --> 05:11:48,480
Back then, bonds were considered the
6298
05:11:46,240 --> 05:11:51,360
boring corner of finance.
6299
05:11:48,480 --> 05:11:54,480
It was where you went to retire. Stocks
6300
05:11:51,360 --> 05:11:56,798
were sexy. Bonds were for grandmothers.
6301
05:11:54,480 --> 05:11:58,878
But Larry [music] saw something everyone
6302
05:11:56,798 --> 05:12:01,120
else missed.
6303
05:11:58,878 --> 05:12:03,840
He looked at the American dream, the
6304
05:12:01,120 --> 05:12:06,878
suburban house, the white picket fence,
6305
05:12:03,840 --> 05:12:08,240
the 30-year mortgage, and he saw a math
6306
05:12:06,878 --> 05:12:10,240
problem.
6307
05:12:08,240 --> 05:12:12,560
He realized that if you took thousands
6308
05:12:10,240 --> 05:12:14,080
of individual home mortgages, bundled
6309
05:12:12,560 --> 05:12:16,560
[music] them together like a deck of
6310
05:12:14,080 --> 05:12:20,638
cards, and sold slices of that deck to
6311
05:12:16,560 --> 05:12:23,440
investors, you created a money machine.
6312
05:12:20,638 --> 05:12:24,958
This was the birth of the securitization
6313
05:12:23,440 --> 05:12:27,360
market.
6314
05:12:24,958 --> 05:12:29,760
What Larry Frink helped create was more
6315
05:12:27,360 --> 05:12:33,638
than a [music] financial product. It was
6316
05:12:29,760 --> 05:12:33,638
a structural shift.
6317
05:12:34,000 --> 05:12:38,958
Securitization didn't just bundle
6318
05:12:36,080 --> 05:12:42,160
mortgages. It separated risk from
6319
05:12:38,958 --> 05:12:44,160
reality. For the first time, financial
6320
05:12:42,160 --> 05:12:45,520
value could travel faster than the
6321
05:12:44,160 --> 05:12:48,400
underlying economy that [music]
6322
05:12:45,520 --> 05:12:50,480
supported it. A house in California
6323
05:12:48,400 --> 05:12:52,878
became a line in a spreadsheet in New
6324
05:12:50,480 --> 05:12:55,680
York, which became a yield sold to an
6325
05:12:52,878 --> 05:12:58,400
investor [music] in Tokyo. Risk no
6326
05:12:55,680 --> 05:13:01,200
longer lived where decisions were made.
6327
05:12:58,400 --> 05:13:02,996
It was abstracted, sliced, repackaged,
6328
05:13:01,200 --> 05:13:03,920
and distributed across the system.
6329
05:13:02,996 --> 05:13:06,000
[music]
6330
05:13:03,920 --> 05:13:08,320
This was the moment when finance stopped
6331
05:13:06,000 --> 05:13:11,600
reflecting the real economy and began
6332
05:13:08,320 --> 05:13:13,760
building a parallel one. A system that
6333
05:13:11,600 --> 05:13:16,240
could grow without limits as long as
6334
05:13:13,760 --> 05:13:19,600
everyone believed the models were right.
6335
05:13:16,240 --> 05:13:21,760
And for a while they were.
6336
05:13:19,600 --> 05:13:23,840
By the early 80s, [music] Larry was the
6337
05:13:21,760 --> 05:13:26,638
golden boy. He wasn't just hitting
6338
05:13:23,840 --> 05:13:28,958
targets, he was shattering them. In one
6339
05:13:26,638 --> 05:13:31,162
year, his department was responsible for
6340
05:13:28,958 --> 05:13:34,320
nearly onethird of First Boston's total
6341
05:13:31,162 --> 05:13:36,480
[music] profits. At age 31, he became
6342
05:13:34,320 --> 05:13:39,520
the youngest managing director the firm
6343
05:13:36,480 --> 05:13:41,640
had ever seen. He was earning millions.
6344
05:13:39,520 --> 05:13:44,240
He was the successor for Prodigy,
6345
05:13:41,640 --> 05:13:46,000
[music] the man who could do no wrong.
6346
05:13:44,240 --> 05:13:48,160
He had moved to his family to a
6347
05:13:46,000 --> 05:13:50,798
sprawling estate. He [music] was flying
6348
05:13:48,160 --> 05:13:54,760
private. He had conquered the grit cover
6349
05:13:50,798 --> 05:13:54,760
battlefield of Manhattan.
6350
05:13:55,280 --> 05:13:59,760
But in the world of high finance, the
6351
05:13:57,520 --> 05:14:02,760
higher you fly, the thinner the air
6352
05:13:59,760 --> 05:14:02,760
becomes.
6353
05:14:04,240 --> 05:14:08,560
Larry was making hundreds of millions
6354
05:14:06,240 --> 05:14:11,118
for the bank, but there was a ghost in
6355
05:14:08,560 --> 05:14:13,760
the machine, a variable he hadn't
6356
05:14:11,118 --> 05:14:15,280
[music] accounted for. The year was
6357
05:14:13,760 --> 05:14:17,600
1986.
6358
05:14:15,280 --> 05:14:20,400
Larry had made a massive bet on interest
6359
05:14:17,600 --> 05:14:23,920
rates. He believed they would stay
6360
05:14:20,400 --> 05:14:25,920
stable. He was so sure of his math, so
6361
05:14:23,920 --> 05:14:27,920
confident in his track record that he
6362
05:14:25,920 --> 05:14:30,240
didn't realize the ground was shifting
6363
05:14:27,920 --> 05:14:32,240
beneath his feet.
6364
05:14:30,240 --> 05:14:34,480
In just 3 months, the Golden Boy
6365
05:14:32,240 --> 05:14:38,240
department went from profit to a
6366
05:14:34,480 --> 05:14:41,440
catastrophic $100 million loss. In the
6367
05:14:38,240 --> 05:14:44,240
80s, 100 million wasn't just a loss. It
6368
05:14:41,440 --> 05:14:46,320
was a national scandal. Overnight, the
6369
05:14:44,240 --> 05:14:49,108
man who was supposed to run the bank was
6370
05:14:46,320 --> 05:14:50,878
a pariah. The phones stopped ringing.
6371
05:14:49,108 --> 05:14:53,440
[music] The friends on the trading floor
6372
05:14:50,878 --> 05:14:55,760
looked away when he walked by. He had
6373
05:14:53,440 --> 05:14:57,440
been the smartest man in the room until
6374
05:14:55,760 --> 05:14:59,360
he wasn't. [music]
6375
05:14:57,440 --> 05:15:02,560
He would later describe this moment as
6376
05:14:59,360 --> 05:15:04,480
the most painful experience of my life.
6377
05:15:02,560 --> 05:15:05,520
But as he sat in the ruins of his
6378
05:15:04,480 --> 05:15:07,600
reputation, [music]
6379
05:15:05,520 --> 05:15:09,920
Larry Frink wasn't just mourning his
6380
05:15:07,600 --> 05:15:11,440
career. He was obsessed with one
6381
05:15:09,920 --> 05:15:14,400
question.
6382
05:15:11,440 --> 05:15:16,958
How did I not see the risk?
6383
05:15:14,400 --> 05:15:19,280
That obsession, the fear of the unknown
6384
05:15:16,958 --> 05:15:22,920
variable, would become the cornerstone
6385
05:15:19,280 --> 05:15:22,920
of Black Rockck.
6386
05:15:26,080 --> 05:15:32,240
By 1983, Larry wasn't just selling
6387
05:15:28,878 --> 05:15:36,680
bonds, he was a pioneer of the CMO,
6388
05:15:32,240 --> 05:15:36,680
collateralized mortgage obligation.
6389
05:15:36,958 --> 05:15:41,840
Think of it like a waterfall. Larry took
6390
05:15:39,680 --> 05:15:44,798
thousands of mortgages and sliced them
6391
05:15:41,840 --> 05:15:47,920
into tranches. Some investors took the
6392
05:15:44,798 --> 05:15:51,040
top slice, low risk, low reward. Others
6393
05:15:47,920 --> 05:15:52,878
took the bottom, high risk, high yield.
6394
05:15:51,040 --> 05:15:56,718
It was a masterpiece of financial
6395
05:15:52,878 --> 05:15:59,520
engineering. It made the illquid liquid.
6396
05:15:56,718 --> 05:16:01,760
It made first Boston the center of the
6397
05:15:59,520 --> 05:16:04,000
universe.
6398
05:16:01,760 --> 05:16:05,600
But there was a flaw, a tiny
6399
05:16:04,000 --> 05:16:08,560
mathematical [music] ghost in his
6400
05:16:05,600 --> 05:16:10,638
models. Larry's team had predicted that
6401
05:16:08,560 --> 05:16:13,200
interest rates would rise and they
6402
05:16:10,638 --> 05:16:15,568
hedged their bets accordingly. But in
6403
05:16:13,200 --> 05:16:17,360
the second quarter of 1986, rates
6404
05:16:15,568 --> 05:16:20,638
[music] did something the models said
6405
05:16:17,360 --> 05:16:22,400
was impossible. They plummeted
6406
05:16:20,638 --> 05:16:24,718
because they didn't have a system to
6407
05:16:22,400 --> 05:16:26,320
track their real-time exposure. Larry
6408
05:16:24,718 --> 05:16:29,360
was flying blind. [music]
6409
05:16:26,320 --> 05:16:31,840
He was the pilot of a Boeing 747 trying
6410
05:16:29,360 --> 05:16:34,560
to land in a storm using nothing but a
6411
05:16:31,840 --> 05:16:36,718
compass and a prayer. By the time he
6412
05:16:34,560 --> 05:16:38,000
realized the engines were on fire, the
6413
05:16:36,718 --> 05:16:41,360
plane had already hit the [music]
6414
05:16:38,000 --> 05:16:44,680
mountain. $100 million.
6415
05:16:41,360 --> 05:16:44,680
All gone.
6416
05:16:46,878 --> 05:16:52,240
He wasn't just fired, he was erased.
6417
05:16:50,080 --> 05:16:55,200
After the dust settled, Larry found
6418
05:16:52,240 --> 05:16:58,240
himself in a peculiar kind of exile. He
6419
05:16:55,200 --> 05:17:00,764
wasn't just unemployed, he was haunted.
6420
05:16:58,240 --> 05:17:02,958
He realized that the $100 million loss
6421
05:17:00,764 --> 05:17:05,680
[music] wasn't a failure of talent, it
6422
05:17:02,958 --> 05:17:06,878
was a failure of vision. What happened
6423
05:17:05,680 --> 05:17:09,600
in 1986 [music]
6424
05:17:06,878 --> 05:17:12,638
wasn't a personal miscalculation.
6425
05:17:09,600 --> 05:17:14,520
It was a systemic blindness.
6426
05:17:12,638 --> 05:17:17,120
At the time, every major financial
6427
05:17:14,520 --> 05:17:20,638
[music] institution operated the same
6428
05:17:17,120 --> 05:17:23,600
way. Positions were fragmented. Exposure
6429
05:17:20,638 --> 05:17:26,718
was estimated, not measured. Risk was
6430
05:17:23,600 --> 05:17:28,560
inferred after the fact. Banks knew what
6431
05:17:26,718 --> 05:17:31,360
they bought [music] yesterday, but not
6432
05:17:28,560 --> 05:17:34,320
what it was worth right now. The system
6433
05:17:31,360 --> 05:17:36,718
rewarded speed, volume, and confidence,
6434
05:17:34,320 --> 05:17:38,320
not understanding. And as long as
6435
05:17:36,718 --> 05:17:40,878
markets [music] moved slowly, the
6436
05:17:38,320 --> 05:17:42,878
illusion held. But once volatility
6437
05:17:40,878 --> 05:17:45,760
entered the [music] market, no one truly
6438
05:17:42,878 --> 05:17:48,480
knew where the danger was or how large
6439
05:17:45,760 --> 05:17:50,878
it had become. Larry didn't [music] just
6440
05:17:48,480 --> 05:17:52,878
lose money. He realized the entire
6441
05:17:50,878 --> 05:17:55,128
financial system was flying without
6442
05:17:52,878 --> 05:17:55,280
instruments. Wall Street was
6443
05:17:55,128 --> 05:17:57,280
>> [music]
6444
05:17:55,280 --> 05:18:01,040
>> essentially a collection of blind
6445
05:17:57,280 --> 05:18:03,920
giants. Every major firm, Goldman,
6446
05:18:01,040 --> 05:18:06,638
Layman, Meil Lynch, was standing just
6447
05:18:03,920 --> 05:18:10,240
one inch away from total collapse at any
6448
05:18:06,638 --> 05:18:13,440
given second. Why? Because they didn't
6449
05:18:10,240 --> 05:18:16,958
actually know what they owned. This was
6450
05:18:13,440 --> 05:18:19,040
information blindness.
6451
05:18:16,958 --> 05:18:21,280
In the 1980s, [music] you knew what you
6452
05:18:19,040 --> 05:18:24,320
bought yesterday, but you had no idea
6453
05:18:21,280 --> 05:18:27,120
what it was worth right now. A sudden
6454
05:18:24,320 --> 05:18:29,840
shift in interest rates or a political
6455
05:18:27,120 --> 05:18:31,280
coup across the ocean could vaporize a
6456
05:18:29,840 --> 05:18:34,560
billion [music] dollars before the
6457
05:18:31,280 --> 05:18:37,920
morning coffee was poured.
6458
05:18:34,560 --> 05:18:40,560
Larry understood a terrifying truth. The
6459
05:18:37,920 --> 05:18:43,840
entire global financial system was built
6460
05:18:40,560 --> 05:18:45,680
on a foundation of guesswork.
6461
05:18:43,840 --> 05:18:49,120
It hit him with the force of an
6462
05:18:45,680 --> 05:18:50,958
epiphany. If he could build a brain, a
6463
05:18:49,120 --> 05:18:53,440
machine that could see the risk that
6464
05:18:50,958 --> 05:18:56,160
humans were too slow to calculate, he
6465
05:18:53,440 --> 05:18:57,920
wouldn't just be a banker. He would be
6466
05:18:56,160 --> 05:19:00,878
the only man in the world with a
6467
05:18:57,920 --> 05:19:02,958
flashlight in a dark room. This
6468
05:19:00,878 --> 05:19:05,760
realization changed his entire
6469
05:19:02,958 --> 05:19:07,440
philosophy of investing. He stopped
6470
05:19:05,760 --> 05:19:10,160
looking for the big score and [music]
6471
05:19:07,440 --> 05:19:12,480
started looking for the safe passage. He
6472
05:19:10,160 --> 05:19:16,400
didn't want to beat the market anymore.
6473
05:19:12,480 --> 05:19:17,680
He wanted to measure it.
6474
05:19:16,400 --> 05:19:19,920
He would later [music] tell his
6475
05:19:17,680 --> 05:19:21,840
partners, "We are never going to be
6476
05:19:19,920 --> 05:19:23,440
blind again."
6477
05:19:21,840 --> 05:19:26,718
That vow [music] born from the
6478
05:19:23,440 --> 05:19:29,680
humiliation of 1986 became the blueprint
6479
05:19:26,718 --> 05:19:31,920
for a new kind of firm. A firm that
6480
05:19:29,680 --> 05:19:34,638
didn't rely on the ego of a [music] star
6481
05:19:31,920 --> 05:19:37,878
trader, but on the cold, unblinking eye
6482
05:19:34,638 --> 05:19:37,878
of technology.
6483
05:19:42,718 --> 05:19:48,638
Larry Frink was a man with a vision, but
6484
05:19:45,440 --> 05:19:50,560
he was also a man with a tainted resume.
6485
05:19:48,638 --> 05:19:53,200
To the rest of Wall Street, he was the
6486
05:19:50,560 --> 05:19:55,280
guy who lost a h 100red million. But to
6487
05:19:53,200 --> 05:19:57,920
a small circle of insiders at First
6488
05:19:55,280 --> 05:20:01,360
Boston, he was the only one who truly
6489
05:19:57,920 --> 05:20:04,160
understood why it happened. He began
6490
05:20:01,360 --> 05:20:06,718
making calls. He wasn't offering high
6491
05:20:04,160 --> 05:20:09,520
salaries or flashy offices. He was
6492
05:20:06,718 --> 05:20:11,680
offering a chance to build a holy grail,
6493
05:20:09,520 --> 05:20:13,920
a financial firm where technology
6494
05:20:11,680 --> 05:20:17,040
governed the ego, not the other way
6495
05:20:13,920 --> 05:20:19,200
round. And he eventually found the right
6496
05:20:17,040 --> 05:20:21,250
people to help him build that holy
6497
05:20:19,200 --> 05:20:21,250
grail. [music]
6498
05:20:22,798 --> 05:20:29,040
Rob Capito, the enforcer, a powerhouse
6499
05:20:26,878 --> 05:20:31,680
trader who knew the plumbing of the bond
6500
05:20:29,040 --> 05:20:33,680
market better than anyone else. He
6501
05:20:31,680 --> 05:20:37,280
provided the muscle Larry needed to
6502
05:20:33,680 --> 05:20:40,400
execute the vision. Ben Golib, the
6503
05:20:37,280 --> 05:20:43,040
Oracle, a PhD with a mind like a
6504
05:20:40,400 --> 05:20:45,840
supercomput. While other bankers were
6505
05:20:43,040 --> 05:20:48,320
focused on lunch reservations, Golib was
6506
05:20:45,840 --> 05:20:51,120
thinking about value at risk and Monte
6507
05:20:48,320 --> 05:20:54,638
Carlo simulations.
6508
05:20:51,120 --> 05:20:57,040
Susan Wagner, the mastermind,
6509
05:20:54,638 --> 05:20:58,718
brilliant, calculating, and capable of
6510
05:20:57,040 --> 05:21:00,958
seeing structural flaws in a
6511
05:20:58,718 --> 05:21:03,280
multi-billion dollar merger before a
6512
05:21:00,958 --> 05:21:05,840
single paper was signed. Along with
6513
05:21:03,280 --> 05:21:08,160
Barbara Novik, Ralph Schlostein, Hugh
6514
05:21:05,840 --> 05:21:10,958
Freighter, and Keith Anderson, they
6515
05:21:08,160 --> 05:21:12,798
became the original eight. [music] Frink
6516
05:21:10,958 --> 05:21:15,840
wasn't looking for bankers who would run
6517
05:21:12,798 --> 05:21:19,440
after the money. He wanted architects,
6518
05:21:15,840 --> 05:21:21,440
people who were tired of being blind.
6519
05:21:19,440 --> 05:21:23,920
When he found them, they met in living
6520
05:21:21,440 --> 05:21:26,000
rooms and coffee [music] shops. They had
6521
05:21:23,920 --> 05:21:28,958
the blueprints for a system they called
6522
05:21:26,000 --> 05:21:31,760
Aladdin, an acronym for asset,
6523
05:21:28,958 --> 05:21:34,718
liability, debt, and derivative
6524
05:21:31,760 --> 05:21:37,280
investment network. It was designed to
6525
05:21:34,718 --> 05:21:40,638
be the unblinking eye Larry had dreamed
6526
05:21:37,280 --> 05:21:43,760
of in his exile. But a brain without a
6527
05:21:40,638 --> 05:21:46,000
body is just a dream. To build Aladdin,
6528
05:21:43,760 --> 05:21:48,718
they needed hardware. They needed
6529
05:21:46,000 --> 05:21:50,718
offices. And most importantly, they
6530
05:21:48,718 --> 05:21:54,080
needed the one thing Larry's reputation
6531
05:21:50,718 --> 05:21:56,160
had cost him. Capital. Aladdin was not
6532
05:21:54,080 --> 05:21:58,958
designed to beat the market. It was
6533
05:21:56,160 --> 05:22:01,200
designed to understand it. But its real
6534
05:21:58,958 --> 05:22:05,520
power emerged when others started using
6535
05:22:01,200 --> 05:22:08,560
it. Banks, insurance companies, pension
6536
05:22:05,520 --> 05:22:10,718
funds, sovereign institutions. As
6537
05:22:08,560 --> 05:22:14,240
Aladdin spread, something subtle
6538
05:22:10,718 --> 05:22:17,200
happened. Risk stopped being subjective.
6539
05:22:14,240 --> 05:22:19,760
It became standardized. When Aladdin
6540
05:22:17,200 --> 05:22:23,798
flagged an asset as dangerous, entire
6541
05:22:19,760 --> 05:22:23,798
markets adjusted accordingly,
6542
05:22:23,920 --> 05:22:29,280
not because Larry Frink said so, but
6543
05:22:26,400 --> 05:22:31,200
because the system trusted the model. At
6544
05:22:29,280 --> 05:22:33,600
that point, Black Rockck was no longer
6545
05:22:31,200 --> 05:22:35,472
just managing money. It was helping
6546
05:22:33,600 --> 05:22:36,638
define how risk itself was understood.
6547
05:22:35,472 --> 05:22:39,040
[music]
6548
05:22:36,638 --> 05:22:42,760
And whoever defines risk defines the
6549
05:22:39,040 --> 05:22:42,760
boundaries of decisionmaking.
6550
05:22:51,360 --> 05:22:56,798
Enter Steven Schwartzman. In 1988,
6551
05:22:54,718 --> 05:22:59,920
Schwartzman was the rising king of
6552
05:22:56,798 --> 05:23:03,600
private equity. His firm Blackstone was
6553
05:22:59,920 --> 05:23:06,240
aggressive, [music] wealthy, and hungry.
6554
05:23:03,600 --> 05:23:08,876
The meeting was tense. Schwartzman knew
6555
05:23:06,240 --> 05:23:12,000
Larry's history. He knew about the 1986
6556
05:23:08,876 --> 05:23:14,638
[music] disaster. But Larry didn't hide
6557
05:23:12,000 --> 05:23:17,760
from it. He used it as his primary
6558
05:23:14,638 --> 05:23:20,000
selling point. Because Larry had seen
6559
05:23:17,760 --> 05:23:22,320
the end of the world already, he knew
6560
05:23:20,000 --> 05:23:24,400
exactly how the lights went out. And
6561
05:23:22,320 --> 05:23:27,280
because of that, he was the only one who
6562
05:23:24,400 --> 05:23:30,000
knew how to keep them on.
6563
05:23:27,280 --> 05:23:32,000
Larry's pitch was revolutionary. He
6564
05:23:30,000 --> 05:23:35,200
didn't want to start a hedge fund. He
6565
05:23:32,000 --> 05:23:36,958
wanted to create a fiduciary company, a
6566
05:23:35,200 --> 05:23:39,200
firm that managed other people's money
6567
05:23:36,958 --> 05:23:41,840
with the same technological rigor
6568
05:23:39,200 --> 05:23:44,480
usually reserved for NASA.
6569
05:23:41,840 --> 05:23:46,958
He asked for a $5 million credit line
6570
05:23:44,480 --> 05:23:49,440
and a partnership. In exchange,
6571
05:23:46,958 --> 05:23:52,160
Schwartzman would own 50% of the new
6572
05:23:49,440 --> 05:23:54,074
venture. He knew he was buying cheap
6573
05:23:52,160 --> 05:23:55,840
because he was buying on a distressed
6574
05:23:54,074 --> 05:23:57,840
[music] asset, Frink's damaged
6575
05:23:55,840 --> 05:23:59,760
reputation.
6576
05:23:57,840 --> 05:24:01,840
But he did so betting on the idea that
6577
05:23:59,760 --> 05:24:06,400
the experience had turned Larry Frink
6578
05:24:01,840 --> 05:24:09,680
into some sort of financial genius.
6579
05:24:06,400 --> 05:24:12,320
The deal was done. On a Friday in March
6580
05:24:09,680 --> 05:24:14,160
1988, the team moved into a single
6581
05:24:12,320 --> 05:24:15,760
cramped room within Blackstone's [music]
6582
05:24:14,160 --> 05:24:18,400
offices.
6583
05:24:15,760 --> 05:24:20,480
They were five computers, a few folding
6584
05:24:18,400 --> 05:24:23,200
chairs, and a mountain of cables on the
6585
05:24:20,480 --> 05:24:25,520
floor. They were under the Blackstone
6586
05:24:23,200 --> 05:24:28,000
umbrella. But Larry knew that this was
6587
05:24:25,520 --> 05:24:31,440
just a temporary shelter. He didn't just
6588
05:24:28,000 --> 05:24:33,200
want a department, he wanted an empire.
6589
05:24:31,440 --> 05:24:35,520
He had the money, he [music] had the
6590
05:24:33,200 --> 05:24:37,600
team. And in the corner of that small
6591
05:24:35,520 --> 05:24:41,200
room, the first lines of code for
6592
05:24:37,600 --> 05:24:44,080
Aladdin were being written.
6593
05:24:41,200 --> 05:24:46,080
The information blindness was over. The
6594
05:24:44,080 --> 05:24:49,750
era of Black Rock, though it didn't have
6595
05:24:46,080 --> 05:24:51,770
that name yet, had begun.
6596
05:24:49,750 --> 05:24:51,770
[music]
6597
05:24:54,718 --> 05:24:59,840
The first office of Blackstone Financial
6598
05:24:56,958 --> 05:25:02,798
Management wasn't a glass tower. It was
6599
05:24:59,840 --> 05:25:05,040
a glorified closet. Because of the heat
6600
05:25:02,798 --> 05:25:06,798
generated by the early Sun Micro
6601
05:25:05,040 --> 05:25:08,560
Systemystems workstations, the
6602
05:25:06,798 --> 05:25:13,120
temperature in the room rarely dropped
6603
05:25:08,560 --> 05:25:14,878
below 80° [music] 27° C.
6604
05:25:13,120 --> 05:25:17,360
While the rest of the Blackstone group
6605
05:25:14,878 --> 05:25:19,840
was out at expensive lunches closing
6606
05:25:17,360 --> 05:25:22,000
leveraged buyouts, Larry's original
6607
05:25:19,840 --> 05:25:24,160
eight were building a digital [music]
6608
05:25:22,000 --> 05:25:26,430
fortress.
6609
05:25:24,160 --> 05:25:27,760
They were the weirdos in the basement.
6610
05:25:26,430 --> 05:25:30,958
[music] It was here that the name
6611
05:25:27,760 --> 05:25:33,200
Aladdin became a living thing. Every
6612
05:25:30,958 --> 05:25:36,400
day, Ben Golab and his team fed [music]
6613
05:25:33,200 --> 05:25:38,400
it data. Interest rates, housing prices,
6614
05:25:36,400 --> 05:25:40,320
historical crashes. They [music] were
6615
05:25:38,400 --> 05:25:45,400
teaching the machine to be afraid of
6616
05:25:40,320 --> 05:25:45,400
everything Larry hadn't seen in 1986.
6617
05:25:49,040 --> 05:25:53,940
By 1992, the department inside
6618
05:25:51,760 --> 05:25:56,560
Blackstone was no longer a startup.
6619
05:25:53,940 --> 05:26:00,320
[music] It was a powerhouse. Larry's
6620
05:25:56,560 --> 05:26:01,920
team was managing $17 billion.
6621
05:26:00,320 --> 05:26:04,320
They weren't just a side project
6622
05:26:01,920 --> 05:26:06,718
anymore. They were a significant engine
6623
05:26:04,320 --> 05:26:09,680
of Blackstone's [music] growth. But with
6624
05:26:06,718 --> 05:26:11,920
success came a toxic byproduct,
6625
05:26:09,680 --> 05:26:14,560
identity confusion.
6626
05:26:11,920 --> 05:26:16,000
Clients were getting confused. They
6627
05:26:14,560 --> 05:26:18,718
would call [music] Blackstone looking
6628
05:26:16,000 --> 05:26:21,120
for Larry's bond expertise or call Larry
6629
05:26:18,718 --> 05:26:22,638
looking for Schwarzman's buyouts. But
6630
05:26:21,120 --> 05:26:25,520
the friction went deeper [music] than a
6631
05:26:22,638 --> 05:26:28,160
name. It was a war of philosophies.
6632
05:26:25,520 --> 05:26:30,718
Schwartzman was a dealmaker. He wanted
6633
05:26:28,160 --> 05:26:33,520
to own companies. Think was a [music]
6634
05:26:30,718 --> 05:26:35,520
fiduciary. He wanted to manage risk for
6635
05:26:33,520 --> 05:26:37,680
others.
6636
05:26:35,520 --> 05:26:39,680
The tension was similar to having two
6637
05:26:37,680 --> 05:26:42,400
predators [music] in a cage too small to
6638
05:26:39,680 --> 05:26:44,878
fit both. The breaking point came over
6639
05:26:42,400 --> 05:26:47,120
equity. Larry wanted [music] to use
6640
05:26:44,878 --> 05:26:49,616
stock to attract and keep the original
6641
05:26:47,120 --> 05:26:51,920
eight and new talent. Schwarzman,
6642
05:26:49,616 --> 05:26:54,560
[music] holding 50% of the firm, didn't
6643
05:26:51,920 --> 05:26:56,080
want to dilute his state. The
6644
05:26:54,560 --> 05:26:58,798
partnership that saved [music] Larry's
6645
05:26:56,080 --> 05:27:03,760
career was now suffocating his vision.
6646
05:26:58,798 --> 05:27:05,120
In 1994, they reached a deal.
6647
05:27:03,760 --> 05:27:08,878
Schwarzman agreed [music] to sell
6648
05:27:05,120 --> 05:27:10,576
Blackstone steak for $240 million. At
6649
05:27:08,878 --> 05:27:12,718
the time, it seemed like a win for
6650
05:27:10,576 --> 05:27:15,840
[music] Schwarzman, a massive return on
6651
05:27:12,718 --> 05:27:17,440
his $5 million investment. It wasn't
6652
05:27:15,840 --> 05:27:19,920
just about money. [music] It was about
6653
05:27:17,440 --> 05:27:21,520
the spotlight. Schwarzman was the king
6654
05:27:19,920 --> 05:27:24,080
of Wall Street, [music] but his
6655
05:27:21,520 --> 05:27:26,638
subtenant, Larry Frink, was the one the
6656
05:27:24,080 --> 05:27:28,718
New York Times wanted to interview. But
6657
05:27:26,638 --> 05:27:31,840
for Larry, it [music] was the price of
6658
05:27:28,718 --> 05:27:34,240
freedom. Schwarzman would later call
6659
05:27:31,840 --> 05:27:36,400
selling Black Rock the worst mistake of
6660
05:27:34,240 --> 05:27:38,160
my career. For Larry, [music] the
6661
05:27:36,400 --> 05:27:40,878
divorce was the moment the training
6662
05:27:38,160 --> 05:27:42,878
wheels came off. He was no longer under
6663
05:27:40,878 --> 05:27:46,000
anyone's umbrella. He was the [music]
6664
05:27:42,878 --> 05:27:47,840
CEO of an independent firm. Now he just
6665
05:27:46,000 --> 05:27:51,798
had to prove he could survive the coming
6666
05:27:47,840 --> 05:27:51,798
storm of the late [music] '9s.
6667
05:27:59,600 --> 05:28:05,440
It is 2008. The financial world was
6668
05:28:02,878 --> 05:28:07,680
experiencing a heart attack. The
6669
05:28:05,440 --> 05:28:09,920
financial smoothies that mortgage back
6670
05:28:07,680 --> 05:28:11,760
securities Larry had helped create 30
6671
05:28:09,920 --> 05:28:14,798
years earlier had [music] turned into a
6672
05:28:11,760 --> 05:28:17,120
global poison. Banks didn't know what
6673
05:28:14,798 --> 05:28:19,360
they owned. And more importantly, they
6674
05:28:17,120 --> 05:28:22,080
didn't know what their neighbors owned.
6675
05:28:19,360 --> 05:28:24,080
Trust had evaporated.
6676
05:28:22,080 --> 05:28:25,440
When the US government realized the
6677
05:28:24,080 --> 05:28:27,920
economy was [music] on the brink of a
6678
05:28:25,440 --> 05:28:31,760
total blackout, they didn't call Goldman
6679
05:28:27,920 --> 05:28:34,160
Sachs. They didn't call JP Morgan. While
6680
05:28:31,760 --> 05:28:35,760
the CEOs of Layman and Merrill were
6681
05:28:34,160 --> 05:28:38,000
begging for government [music] checks,
6682
05:28:35,760 --> 05:28:40,558
Larry Frink was the one the government
6683
05:28:38,000 --> 05:28:42,798
called to write the checks.
6684
05:28:40,558 --> 05:28:45,280
He was the only titan left standing with
6685
05:28:42,798 --> 05:28:47,360
a clean balance sheet.
6686
05:28:45,280 --> 05:28:49,520
The United States government didn't just
6687
05:28:47,360 --> 05:28:51,360
seek advice, it delegated
6688
05:28:49,520 --> 05:28:52,798
responsibility.
6689
05:28:51,360 --> 05:28:55,200
Black Rockck was [music] tasked with
6690
05:28:52,798 --> 05:28:57,680
valuing assets no one understood,
6691
05:28:55,200 --> 05:28:59,840
managing risks no one could measure and
6692
05:28:57,680 --> 05:29:02,878
stabilizing markets that were collapsing
6693
05:28:59,840 --> 05:29:05,280
in real time.
6694
05:29:02,878 --> 05:29:07,168
This wasn't a bailout. It was an
6695
05:29:05,280 --> 05:29:08,320
outsourcing of core sovereign functions.
6696
05:29:07,168 --> 05:29:10,080
[music]
6697
05:29:08,320 --> 05:29:12,080
For the first time, a private firm
6698
05:29:10,080 --> 05:29:15,120
played a central role in maintaining
6699
05:29:12,080 --> 05:29:16,400
global financial stability. Not through
6700
05:29:15,120 --> 05:29:19,440
political authority, [music]
6701
05:29:16,400 --> 05:29:22,000
but through technical capability.
6702
05:29:19,440 --> 05:29:23,200
From that moment on, power was no longer
6703
05:29:22,000 --> 05:29:25,840
just [music] about laws and
6704
05:29:23,200 --> 05:29:29,120
institutions. It was about who had the
6705
05:29:25,840 --> 05:29:31,040
tools to see the system clearly.
6706
05:29:29,120 --> 05:29:33,600
Black Rockck was hired to manage the
6707
05:29:31,040 --> 05:29:35,600
toxic waste of the crisis.
6708
05:29:33,600 --> 05:29:39,200
They became the official cleaner for the
6709
05:29:35,600 --> 05:29:42,680
US government, managing $130 billion of
6710
05:29:39,200 --> 05:29:42,680
troubled assets.
6711
05:29:42,798 --> 05:29:47,520
Suddenly, Larry Frink was the most
6712
05:29:45,200 --> 05:29:49,200
powerful man in the room, acting as an
6713
05:29:47,520 --> 05:29:50,718
adviser to the president and the
6714
05:29:49,200 --> 05:29:53,120
treasury.
6715
05:29:50,718 --> 05:29:55,920
But while he was saving the system, he
6716
05:29:53,120 --> 05:29:58,160
saw a once-ina-lifetime opportunity to
6717
05:29:55,920 --> 05:30:00,718
dominate it. In the middle of the
6718
05:29:58,160 --> 05:30:03,520
carnage, Barclay's bank in the UK was
6719
05:30:00,718 --> 05:30:05,760
desperate for cash. They needed to sell
6720
05:30:03,520 --> 05:30:07,840
their crown jewel, a division called
6721
05:30:05,760 --> 05:30:10,240
Barclay's Global Investors, which
6722
05:30:07,840 --> 05:30:12,000
included a revolutionary product called
6723
05:30:10,240 --> 05:30:13,840
Eyesshares.
6724
05:30:12,000 --> 05:30:16,638
Eyesshares represented passive
6725
05:30:13,840 --> 05:30:19,680
investing. ETFs that track the whole
6726
05:30:16,638 --> 05:30:21,600
market rather than trying to beat it. It
6727
05:30:19,680 --> 05:30:24,320
was the ultimate expression of Larry's
6728
05:30:21,600 --> 05:30:26,958
philosophy. Stop betting on stars and
6729
05:30:24,320 --> 05:30:31,280
start owning the system. It was a
6730
05:30:26,958 --> 05:30:33,680
massive $13.5 billion gamble.
6731
05:30:31,280 --> 05:30:36,400
If the markets continue to fall, deal
6732
05:30:33,680 --> 05:30:38,638
could sink Black Rockck. But Larry knew
6733
05:30:36,400 --> 05:30:40,718
something the others didn't. He had
6734
05:30:38,638 --> 05:30:42,958
looked into the eye of Aladdin, and
6735
05:30:40,718 --> 05:30:45,760
Aladdin told him that the bottom was
6736
05:30:42,958 --> 05:30:48,718
near. With the acquisition of Eyesshares
6737
05:30:45,760 --> 05:30:51,360
in 2009, Black Rockck doubled its size
6738
05:30:48,718 --> 05:30:54,080
overnight. They weren't just a bond shop
6739
05:30:51,360 --> 05:30:57,040
anymore. They were now the largest money
6740
05:30:54,080 --> 05:30:59,760
manager on the planet. They had gone
6741
05:30:57,040 --> 05:31:01,840
into the crisis as a respected firm.
6742
05:30:59,760 --> 05:31:05,638
They came out of it as the shadow
6743
05:31:01,840 --> 05:31:05,638
government of finance.
6744
05:31:10,320 --> 05:31:14,160
By 2012, [music]
6745
05:31:11,520 --> 05:31:16,080
Larry Frink had built the machine. He
6746
05:31:14,160 --> 05:31:17,280
had the assets, the data, and the
6747
05:31:16,080 --> 05:31:19,200
influence. [music]
6748
05:31:17,280 --> 05:31:22,100
But he realized that being king of Wall
6749
05:31:19,200 --> 05:31:23,680
Street wasn't enough. He wanted to
6750
05:31:22,100 --> 05:31:27,040
[music] change the way the world did
6751
05:31:23,680 --> 05:31:28,480
business. Every January, a ritual began
6752
05:31:27,040 --> 05:31:31,600
that would send tremors through
6753
05:31:28,480 --> 05:31:34,000
boardrooms from Detroit to Frankfurt.
6754
05:31:31,600 --> 05:31:36,480
Larry started writing letters. They
6755
05:31:34,000 --> 05:31:40,360
weren't just annual reports. They were
6756
05:31:36,480 --> 05:31:40,360
the Black Rockck Manifestos.
6757
05:31:41,040 --> 05:31:46,958
In 2018, he dropped a bomb. He told the
6758
05:31:44,798 --> 05:31:49,120
world's CEOs that if they wanted Black
6759
05:31:46,958 --> 05:31:52,240
Rockck's money, they had to prove they
6760
05:31:49,120 --> 05:31:54,958
served a social purpose. He wasn't just
6761
05:31:52,240 --> 05:31:57,520
asking for profits. He was asking for a
6762
05:31:54,958 --> 05:32:00,638
soul. He was mainstreaming [music]
6763
05:31:57,520 --> 05:32:03,520
ESG, environmental, social, and
6764
05:32:00,638 --> 05:32:07,120
governance. And he was doing it with a
6765
05:32:03,520 --> 05:32:08,878
$10 trillion hammer. But Larry's new
6766
05:32:07,120 --> 05:32:12,400
gospel [music] didn't sit well with
6767
05:32:08,878 --> 05:32:14,080
everyone. By 2021, the golden boy was
6768
05:32:12,400 --> 05:32:17,120
finding himself in the middle of a
6769
05:32:14,080 --> 05:32:20,320
two-front war.
6770
05:32:17,120 --> 05:32:22,000
The ESG debate was never cultural. It
6771
05:32:20,320 --> 05:32:24,638
was economic.
6772
05:32:22,000 --> 05:32:27,120
At its core, ESG [music] was about risk
6773
05:32:24,638 --> 05:32:29,120
management, anticipating regulation,
6774
05:32:27,120 --> 05:32:30,958
climate disruption, and social
6775
05:32:29,120 --> 05:32:32,638
instability.
6776
05:32:30,958 --> 05:32:34,718
For Black Rockck, ignoring [music] those
6777
05:32:32,638 --> 05:32:36,770
factors wasn't neutral. It was
6778
05:32:34,718 --> 05:32:39,040
dangerous. But when capital begins
6779
05:32:36,770 --> 05:32:41,440
[music] to price the future, it also
6780
05:32:39,040 --> 05:32:44,080
begins to shape it. That's why the
6781
05:32:41,440 --> 05:32:46,958
backlash was so intense.
6782
05:32:44,080 --> 05:32:48,558
To the left, Larry was a hypocrite. They
6783
05:32:46,958 --> 05:32:50,798
called him [music] a greenwasher because
6784
05:32:48,558 --> 05:32:53,280
Black Rockck still held billions in oil
6785
05:32:50,798 --> 05:32:55,440
and gas stocks. To the right, he [music]
6786
05:32:53,280 --> 05:32:57,600
was a globalist villain who was using
6787
05:32:55,440 --> 05:32:59,920
other people's money to push a radical
6788
05:32:57,600 --> 05:33:02,000
environmental [music] agenda. The
6789
05:32:59,920 --> 05:33:05,558
backlash turned into a full-scale
6790
05:33:02,000 --> 05:33:05,558
political assault.
6791
05:33:05,600 --> 05:33:10,320
State treasurers in Florida, Texas, and
6792
05:33:08,080 --> 05:33:12,958
Mississippi began pulling billions out
6793
05:33:10,320 --> 05:33:14,878
of Black Rockck. They accused Larry of
6794
05:33:12,958 --> 05:33:17,760
boycotting energy and [music] violating
6795
05:33:14,878 --> 05:33:19,600
his duty to investors.
6796
05:33:17,760 --> 05:33:22,320
For the first time, the man who had
6797
05:33:19,600 --> 05:33:23,920
mastered risk found himself in a risk he
6798
05:33:22,320 --> 05:33:27,638
couldn't calculate, [music]
6799
05:33:23,920 --> 05:33:27,638
the culture war.
6800
05:33:29,120 --> 05:33:34,080
He told a crowd in Aspen that he was
6801
05:33:31,360 --> 05:33:36,240
ashamed to be a part of the debate. He
6802
05:33:34,080 --> 05:33:39,280
even stopped using the term ESG
6803
05:33:36,240 --> 05:33:41,120
altogether, calling it weaponized.
6804
05:33:39,280 --> 05:33:43,920
He had tried to become the conscience of
6805
05:33:41,120 --> 05:33:46,320
capitalism. Instead, it became its most
6806
05:33:43,920 --> 05:33:48,160
controversial target. But even [music]
6807
05:33:46,320 --> 05:33:50,798
as the politicians shouted and the
6808
05:33:48,160 --> 05:33:53,680
protesters marched, the assets kept
6809
05:33:50,798 --> 05:33:55,440
growing. [music]
6810
05:33:53,680 --> 05:33:57,520
Because in the end, whether you loved
6811
05:33:55,440 --> 05:34:01,974
him or hated him, you couldn't escape
6812
05:33:57,520 --> 05:34:01,974
the machine he built. [music]
6813
05:34:09,360 --> 05:34:14,000
January 2026,
6814
05:34:11,680 --> 05:34:15,680
the number flashes on a terminal in
6815
05:34:14,000 --> 05:34:19,680
Black Rockck's Hudson Yards
6816
05:34:15,680 --> 05:34:22,798
headquarters. $14 trillion.
6817
05:34:19,680 --> 05:34:24,400
It is a number so vast it defies human
6818
05:34:22,798 --> 05:34:26,160
comprehension.
6819
05:34:24,400 --> 05:34:28,878
If Larry thinks assets [music] under
6820
05:34:26,160 --> 05:34:30,878
management were a country's GDP, it
6821
05:34:28,878 --> 05:34:33,200
would be the third largest economy on
6822
05:34:30,878 --> 05:34:35,440
Earth, surpassed only by the United
6823
05:34:33,200 --> 05:34:37,680
States [music] and China.
6824
05:34:35,440 --> 05:34:40,558
But as Larry looks out from his office,
6825
05:34:37,680 --> 05:34:42,400
he isn't looking at stock tickers. He is
6826
05:34:40,558 --> 05:34:45,400
looking at the very bones of
6827
05:34:42,400 --> 05:34:45,400
civilization.
6828
05:34:46,958 --> 05:34:53,200
In 2024, Larry made his final [music]
6829
05:34:50,000 --> 05:34:54,978
most aggressive pivot. He realized that
6830
05:34:53,200 --> 05:34:57,280
the next decade won't be one with
6831
05:34:54,978 --> 05:35:00,216
[music] bits on a screen, but with atoms
6832
05:34:57,280 --> 05:35:02,320
in the ground. With the 12.5 billion
6833
05:35:00,216 --> 05:35:04,798
[music] acquisition of global
6834
05:35:02,320 --> 05:35:06,558
infrastructure partners, Larry signaled
6835
05:35:04,798 --> 05:35:10,080
the end of the [music] old Wall Street
6836
05:35:06,558 --> 05:35:11,440
era. Larry saw the AI revolution coming.
6837
05:35:10,080 --> 05:35:14,160
But he didn't buy the chip [music]
6838
05:35:11,440 --> 05:35:17,718
makers. He bought the power plants that
6839
05:35:14,160 --> 05:35:17,718
feed the chips.
6840
05:35:20,558 --> 05:35:27,638
But every empire faces the same
6841
05:35:22,638 --> 05:35:27,638
inevitable [music] question. Succession.
6842
05:35:29,040 --> 05:35:33,280
For years, Wall Street has whispered
6843
05:35:31,120 --> 05:35:36,558
about who could possibly replace the man
6844
05:35:33,280 --> 05:35:38,480
who is Black Rockck. Names like Rob
6845
05:35:36,558 --> 05:35:41,120
Capito, Mark Weirman, [music] and
6846
05:35:38,480 --> 05:35:44,102
Jennifer Johnson swirl in the press. But
6847
05:35:41,120 --> 05:35:45,840
the truth is more complex. Larry hasn't
6848
05:35:44,102 --> 05:35:48,688
[music] just built a company. He's built
6849
05:35:45,840 --> 05:35:51,520
an organism. A system where Aladdin, now
6850
05:35:48,688 --> 05:35:53,760
[music] a very sophisticated AI entity,
6851
05:35:51,520 --> 05:35:56,000
handles the risk while a legion of
6852
05:35:53,760 --> 05:35:58,798
20,000 employees, [music] executes the
6853
05:35:56,000 --> 05:36:01,280
vision. Aladdin is no longer just a
6854
05:35:58,798 --> 05:36:02,480
calculator. It is a predictive engine
6855
05:36:01,280 --> 05:36:05,200
that runs millions of [music]
6856
05:36:02,480 --> 05:36:07,120
simulations every second, anticipating
6857
05:36:05,200 --> 05:36:10,878
everything from a war in the Middle East
6858
05:36:07,120 --> 05:36:13,360
to a crop [music] failure in Brazil.
6859
05:36:10,878 --> 05:36:16,480
Some call him the king of the world,
6860
05:36:13,360 --> 05:36:18,718
others call him the shadow architect.
6861
05:36:16,480 --> 05:36:20,480
But if you ask Larry, he'll tell you
6862
05:36:18,718 --> 05:36:22,878
he's [music] still that kid from the Van
6863
05:36:20,480 --> 05:36:27,160
Noise shoe store, just trying to make
6864
05:36:22,878 --> 05:36:27,160
sure that the maths add up.
6865
05:36:27,520 --> 05:36:31,360
He took the greatest humiliation of his
6866
05:36:29,520 --> 05:36:33,840
life and turned it [music] into a shield
6867
05:36:31,360 --> 05:36:35,840
for the global economy.
6868
05:36:33,840 --> 05:36:38,558
He taught the world that profit without
6869
05:36:35,840 --> 05:36:40,798
a plan is just a gamble and that in the
6870
05:36:38,558 --> 05:36:43,680
dark, the man with the flashlight is
6871
05:36:40,798 --> 05:36:45,680
king.
6872
05:36:43,680 --> 05:36:48,292
There is one financial question the
6873
05:36:45,680 --> 05:36:50,320
system cannot answer. What happens
6874
05:36:48,292 --> 05:36:53,040
[music] when everyone measures risk the
6875
05:36:50,320 --> 05:36:55,498
same way? When models converge. When
6876
05:36:53,040 --> 05:36:57,760
assumptions align. When diversity of
6877
05:36:55,498 --> 05:37:00,080
[music] judgment disappears.
6878
05:36:57,760 --> 05:37:02,320
A system optimized for stability can
6879
05:37:00,080 --> 05:37:04,558
become fragile. Not because [music] it
6880
05:37:02,320 --> 05:37:06,558
is wrong but because it leaves no room
6881
05:37:04,558 --> 05:37:08,798
for the unexpected.
6882
05:37:06,558 --> 05:37:11,200
When the supervisor becomes invisible
6883
05:37:08,798 --> 05:37:14,320
and the rules are embedded in code,
6884
05:37:11,200 --> 05:37:17,600
accountability becomes harder to locate,
6885
05:37:14,320 --> 05:37:19,520
the system works until it doesn't. And
6886
05:37:17,600 --> 05:37:22,080
that's why Blackprop isn't just a
6887
05:37:19,520 --> 05:37:24,718
shareholder in your company. They are
6888
05:37:22,080 --> 05:37:27,520
the landlord of your power plant, the
6889
05:37:24,718 --> 05:37:29,920
owner of your airport, the architect of
6890
05:37:27,520 --> 05:37:31,840
your retirement. It is a level of
6891
05:37:29,920 --> 05:37:33,280
centralized influence the world has
6892
05:37:31,840 --> 05:37:36,718
never seen [music] in a private
6893
05:37:33,280 --> 05:37:39,440
individual. Lawrence D.Fin didn't just
6894
05:37:36,718 --> 05:37:41,680
build a bank. He built the unblinking
6895
05:37:39,440 --> 05:37:43,920
eye of [music] capitalism.
6896
05:37:41,680 --> 05:37:46,160
And as the world moves into the era of
6897
05:37:43,920 --> 05:37:47,840
AI, climate shift, and global
6898
05:37:46,160 --> 05:37:51,120
restructuring, one [music] thing is
6899
05:37:47,840 --> 05:37:56,920
certain. Black Rockck will be there,
6900
05:37:51,120 --> 05:37:56,920
watching, calculating, and growing.
6901
05:39:17,040 --> 05:39:22,000
It's just a small plastic brick.
6902
05:39:20,480 --> 05:39:27,200
Lightweight,
6903
05:39:22,000 --> 05:39:31,520
simple, unchanged since 1958.
6904
05:39:27,200 --> 05:39:33,520
And yet, it has built entire universes.
6905
05:39:31,520 --> 05:39:36,080
Lego constructions truly take us back to
6906
05:39:33,520 --> 05:39:37,840
childhood.
6907
05:39:36,080 --> 05:39:40,320
But they stay with us throughout our
6908
05:39:37,840 --> 05:39:42,718
entire lives. From bedrooms to
6909
05:39:40,320 --> 05:39:46,958
boardrooms, from playgrounds to
6910
05:39:42,718 --> 05:39:49,440
Hollywood, Lego has shaped generations.
6911
05:39:46,958 --> 05:39:51,058
>> When I design something from scratch, I
6912
05:39:49,440 --> 05:39:53,680
start with an idea that occurs to me at
6913
05:39:51,058 --> 05:39:55,440
[music] any time of day.
6914
05:39:53,680 --> 05:39:58,480
>> I try to build it with Lego and see what
6915
05:39:55,440 --> 05:40:02,080
I come up with. In a global toy market
6916
05:39:58,480 --> 05:40:04,794
worth more [music] than $120 billion,
6917
05:40:02,080 --> 05:40:07,360
LEGO stands alone. A single company
6918
05:40:04,794 --> 05:40:10,558
[music] controlling nearly one in every
6919
05:40:07,360 --> 05:40:12,798
$10 spent on toys worldwide.
6920
05:40:10,558 --> 05:40:14,400
>> Lego holds a leading position worldwide,
6921
05:40:12,798 --> 05:40:16,000
recognized above all for its
6922
05:40:14,400 --> 05:40:18,160
playability.
6923
05:40:16,000 --> 05:40:22,240
>> What if the most beloved toy in the
6924
05:40:18,160 --> 05:40:24,638
world almost didn't exist?
6925
05:40:22,240 --> 05:40:27,360
Discover the incredible journey of a
6926
05:40:24,638 --> 05:40:29,360
small, struggling carpentry shop. The
6927
05:40:27,360 --> 05:40:31,200
dared to dream bigger than anyone
6928
05:40:29,360 --> 05:40:33,760
thought possible.
6929
05:40:31,200 --> 05:40:36,798
>> This is the untold story of the [music]
6930
05:40:33,760 --> 05:40:39,840
visionary who built Lego.
6931
05:40:36,798 --> 05:40:43,120
Transforming simple wooden bricks into a
6932
05:40:39,840 --> 05:40:46,000
multi-billion dollar empire and forever
6933
05:40:43,120 --> 05:40:47,600
changing how we play.
6934
05:40:46,000 --> 05:40:49,840
But none of this [music] began with
6935
05:40:47,600 --> 05:40:51,520
billiondoll charts or cinematic
6936
05:40:49,840 --> 05:40:55,360
universes.
6937
05:40:51,520 --> 05:40:57,920
It began with a carpenter with a vision.
6938
05:40:55,360 --> 05:41:01,200
In a tiny Danish [music] village, one
6939
05:40:57,920 --> 05:41:04,840
man had a dream. Building toys out of
6940
05:41:01,200 --> 05:41:04,840
scraps of wood.
6941
05:41:11,040 --> 05:41:17,840
Ole Christensen was born in 1891 in
6942
05:41:14,878 --> 05:41:21,760
western Denmark, a place defined by
6943
05:41:17,840 --> 05:41:24,480
silence, soil, and hard work.
6944
05:41:21,760 --> 05:41:26,638
He grew up poor, like most children in
6945
05:41:24,480 --> 05:41:28,000
the Jutland countryside.
6946
05:41:26,638 --> 05:41:30,718
But he learned the value of
6947
05:41:28,000 --> 05:41:34,160
craftsmanship early. When you made
6948
05:41:30,718 --> 05:41:36,878
something, it had to last.
6949
05:41:34,160 --> 05:41:39,120
He apprenticed as a carpenter. It was
6950
05:41:36,878 --> 05:41:42,718
not a really glamorous work, but
6951
05:41:39,120 --> 05:41:46,000
meticulous, honest, a craft that matched
6952
05:41:42,718 --> 05:41:48,000
Ola's character and manners.
6953
05:41:46,000 --> 05:41:51,360
Ola traveled through Denmark, [music]
6954
05:41:48,000 --> 05:41:55,360
Germany, and Norway. Everywhere he went,
6955
05:41:51,360 --> 05:41:57,440
he left a reputation. Precise, patient,
6956
05:41:55,360 --> 05:41:59,120
relentless.
6957
05:41:57,440 --> 05:42:01,440
In 1916, [music]
6958
05:41:59,120 --> 05:42:03,440
Ole returned home and bought a workshop
6959
05:42:01,440 --> 05:42:08,480
in a place that barely existed on the
6960
05:42:03,440 --> 05:42:10,480
map. Bund. No shops, no train station,
6961
05:42:08,480 --> 05:42:12,000
just a handful of families trying to
6962
05:42:10,480 --> 05:42:13,760
survive the Danish winds.
6963
05:42:12,000 --> 05:42:16,878
>> Don't worry, I'm fine. I'm fine.
6964
05:42:13,760 --> 05:42:19,040
>> But 8 years later, disaster struck.
6965
05:42:16,878 --> 05:42:22,080
>> Oh. Oh. Oh, no.
6966
05:42:19,040 --> 05:42:22,798
>> In 1924, a fire tore through his
6967
05:42:22,080 --> 05:42:25,680
workshop.
6968
05:42:22,798 --> 05:42:27,280
>> Oh god, no. Please, no. Oh my god.
6969
05:42:25,680 --> 05:42:31,520
>> Everything burned.
6970
05:42:27,280 --> 05:42:34,878
tools, wood, orders, and a lifetime of
6971
05:42:31,520 --> 05:42:39,040
savings, all gone.
6972
05:42:34,878 --> 05:42:41,360
But Olair didn't quit. He rebuilt and
6973
05:42:39,040 --> 05:42:43,680
rebuilt [music] bigger than before. Not
6974
05:42:41,360 --> 05:42:45,920
because it was safe, but because he
6975
05:42:43,680 --> 05:42:48,160
refused to let Billand disappear into
6976
05:42:45,920 --> 05:42:50,558
the wind.
6977
05:42:48,160 --> 05:42:53,040
Then came the Great Depression. [music]
6978
05:42:50,558 --> 05:42:55,680
Houses weren't being built. Doors
6979
05:42:53,040 --> 05:42:57,600
weren't being ordered. bills weren't
6980
05:42:55,680 --> 05:43:00,240
being paid.
6981
05:42:57,600 --> 05:43:03,200
Ole had workers depending on him,
6982
05:43:00,240 --> 05:43:06,160
families depending on him. So, he did
6983
05:43:03,200 --> 05:43:10,000
something unexpected. He began crafting
6984
05:43:06,160 --> 05:43:13,600
small wooden toys. They were simple,
6985
05:43:10,000 --> 05:43:16,638
durable, and beautiful.
6986
05:43:13,600 --> 05:43:20,320
Locals mocked him. A grown man making
6987
05:43:16,638 --> 05:43:23,600
toys for children. You'll never survive.
6988
05:43:20,320 --> 05:43:25,600
But Ola believed that play and fun was a
6989
05:43:23,600 --> 05:43:28,798
serious business.
6990
05:43:25,600 --> 05:43:32,400
In 1934, he held a contest to name the
6991
05:43:28,798 --> 05:43:33,920
new toy company. He chose a short word,
6992
05:43:32,400 --> 05:43:36,320
Lego.
6993
05:43:33,920 --> 05:43:39,840
It was not only a simple idea, but a
6994
05:43:36,320 --> 05:43:42,558
philosophy and a promise.
6995
05:43:39,840 --> 05:43:45,200
He hung a sign in the workshop. Only the
6996
05:43:42,558 --> 05:43:50,360
best is good enough. It wasn't
6997
05:43:45,200 --> 05:43:50,360
marketing. It was his identity.
6998
05:43:50,772 --> 05:43:53,680
>> [panting]
6999
05:43:52,240 --> 05:43:58,320
>> Oh god, not again.
7000
05:43:53,680 --> 05:44:01,120
>> In 1942, Ola faced another fire. This
7001
05:43:58,320 --> 05:44:04,160
time it was bigger, more devastating.
7002
05:44:01,120 --> 05:44:07,600
Every blueprint, every toy, every dream
7003
05:44:04,160 --> 05:44:10,480
he had turned into smoke.
7004
05:44:07,600 --> 05:44:14,000
But he had built himself the hardship.
7005
05:44:10,480 --> 05:44:15,680
And once more, he rebuilt the factory
7006
05:44:14,000 --> 05:44:20,080
stronger than the two previous [music]
7007
05:44:15,680 --> 05:44:22,958
ones. In 1947, at the worst economic
7008
05:44:20,080 --> 05:44:26,160
moment, Ola made the riskiest choice of
7009
05:44:22,958 --> 05:44:28,320
his life. He spent more than twice the
7010
05:44:26,160 --> 05:44:31,120
company's annual profits on a strange
7011
05:44:28,320 --> 05:44:34,080
new machine, one that worked not with
7012
05:44:31,120 --> 05:44:36,798
wood, but with plastic.
7013
05:44:34,080 --> 05:44:39,200
Retailers hated plastic. Parents
7014
05:44:36,798 --> 05:44:42,958
distrusted it. But Ola saw something
7015
05:44:39,200 --> 05:44:45,360
they didn't. Precision, repeatability,
7016
05:44:42,958 --> 05:44:47,680
and possibilities. Endless
7017
05:44:45,360 --> 05:44:50,958
possibilities.
7018
05:44:47,680 --> 05:44:53,120
Only two years later, in 1949,
7019
05:44:50,958 --> 05:44:56,400
LEGO released the first plastic bricks
7020
05:44:53,120 --> 05:44:59,200
of its history. They didn't click. They
7021
05:44:56,400 --> 05:45:02,200
weren't perfect, but they were the
7022
05:44:59,200 --> 05:45:02,200
beginning.
7023
05:45:06,480 --> 05:45:10,878
>> The idea was good, but and his team
7024
05:45:09,120 --> 05:45:13,200
faced setbacks while designing the
7025
05:45:10,878 --> 05:45:14,878
bricks that had cemented Lego's identity
7026
05:45:13,200 --> 05:45:18,718
through the years.
7027
05:45:14,878 --> 05:45:20,718
The plastic bricks didn't grip. This was
7028
05:45:18,718 --> 05:45:23,680
a major problem for a building set
7029
05:45:20,718 --> 05:45:26,638
because buildings collapsed. Towers fell
7030
05:45:23,680 --> 05:45:30,718
in front of their eyes. Apparently, Lego
7031
05:45:26,638 --> 05:45:32,320
wasn't created to build. And then in
7032
05:45:30,718 --> 05:45:34,558
1958,
7033
05:45:32,320 --> 05:45:36,878
everything changed.
7034
05:45:34,558 --> 05:45:38,878
>> Unlike 20 years ago, LEGO today allows
7035
05:45:36,878 --> 05:45:41,200
us to build many more things because
7036
05:45:38,878 --> 05:45:44,520
they have released more realistic colors
7037
05:45:41,200 --> 05:45:44,520
and shapes.
7038
05:45:44,958 --> 05:45:49,680
In the past, the pieces were mostly
7039
05:45:47,040 --> 05:45:51,760
square. Today, there is a much wider
7040
05:45:49,680 --> 05:45:53,920
variety of shapes, including more
7041
05:45:51,760 --> 05:45:56,718
rounded elements, which allow us to
7042
05:45:53,920 --> 05:45:58,400
create more ergonomic forms, ones that
7043
05:45:56,718 --> 05:46:00,718
more closely resemble the kinds of
7044
05:45:58,400 --> 05:46:02,878
buildings and structures we see in
7045
05:46:00,718 --> 05:46:05,920
everyday life.
7046
05:46:02,878 --> 05:46:09,120
>> Engineers at LEGO perfected a simple but
7047
05:46:05,920 --> 05:46:11,200
ingenious solution. hollow tubes inside
7048
05:46:09,120 --> 05:46:13,440
the brick.
7049
05:46:11,200 --> 05:46:16,000
Paired with the studs on top, the
7050
05:46:13,440 --> 05:46:18,878
geometry created what LEGO calls clutch
7051
05:46:16,000 --> 05:46:22,160
power. Not too [music] tight, not too
7052
05:46:18,878 --> 05:46:24,000
loose, just perfect.
7053
05:46:22,160 --> 05:46:26,638
This was not just an adjustment or
7054
05:46:24,000 --> 05:46:29,520
improvement. It was the birth of what we
7055
05:46:26,638 --> 05:46:32,240
know [music] today as a Lego brick. The
7056
05:46:29,520 --> 05:46:34,400
brick that today can still be used with
7057
05:46:32,240 --> 05:46:35,680
the modern ones.
7058
05:46:34,400 --> 05:46:37,760
the brick that [music] was the
7059
05:46:35,680 --> 05:46:40,000
foundation of a company that still makes
7060
05:46:37,760 --> 05:46:43,440
history today.
7061
05:46:40,000 --> 05:46:44,638
That same year, Bego filed the patent.
7062
05:46:43,440 --> 05:46:46,958
They had something worth [music]
7063
05:46:44,638 --> 05:46:50,878
protecting, and OA knew that sooner or
7064
05:46:46,958 --> 05:46:54,558
later, it would be replicated.
7065
05:46:50,878 --> 05:46:57,450
It was January the 28th, 1958 when the
7066
05:46:54,558 --> 05:46:59,360
patent was filed. Later that year,
7067
05:46:57,450 --> 05:47:00,958
[music] Ole Kirk Christensen passed
7068
05:46:59,360 --> 05:47:04,160
away.
7069
05:47:00,958 --> 05:47:07,958
And sadly, he never lived to see how far
7070
05:47:04,160 --> 05:47:07,958
his brick would travel.
7071
05:47:15,520 --> 05:47:21,040
After his father died, Godfred Kerr
7072
05:47:18,080 --> 05:47:23,280
Christensen stepped in. He wasn't
7073
05:47:21,040 --> 05:47:26,240
inheriting the company. He was
7074
05:47:23,280 --> 05:47:28,480
inheriting a philosophy, one he had been
7075
05:47:26,240 --> 05:47:30,638
raised [music] with. His father wasn't
7076
05:47:28,480 --> 05:47:32,798
around anymore, but the original spirit
7077
05:47:30,638 --> 05:47:33,440
of Lego lived on in the second
7078
05:47:32,798 --> 05:47:35,440
Christensen [music]
7079
05:47:33,440 --> 05:47:37,840
generation.
7080
05:47:35,440 --> 05:47:40,000
But he also had something to add.
7081
05:47:37,840 --> 05:47:43,360
Godfred believed Lego should be more
7082
05:47:40,000 --> 05:47:44,878
than toys. It should be a system. A
7083
05:47:43,360 --> 05:47:47,600
system where [music] every piece
7084
05:47:44,878 --> 05:47:49,520
connected with every other piece across
7085
05:47:47,600 --> 05:47:50,878
every set.
7086
05:47:49,520 --> 05:47:53,920
This created a language [music] of
7087
05:47:50,878 --> 05:47:56,638
creativity and possibilities. And a
7088
05:47:53,920 --> 05:47:58,558
single idea changed everything.
7089
05:47:56,638 --> 05:48:01,120
Suddenly, LEGO [music] wasn't a
7090
05:47:58,558 --> 05:48:03,040
collection of toys, but an entire
7091
05:48:01,120 --> 05:48:05,600
universe.
7092
05:48:03,040 --> 05:48:07,520
The company began to grow far beyond its
7093
05:48:05,600 --> 05:48:11,280
original frontiers. [music]
7094
05:48:07,520 --> 05:48:16,080
During the 1960s and '7s, Lego expanded
7095
05:48:11,280 --> 05:48:18,240
across Europe, Germany, Sweden, the UK.
7096
05:48:16,080 --> 05:48:21,680
Band, once [music] a small village,
7097
05:48:18,240 --> 05:48:24,320
became a global hub of play. Lego then
7098
05:48:21,680 --> 05:48:26,638
built its own airport, factories, and
7099
05:48:24,320 --> 05:48:29,120
distribution centers. In the world of
7100
05:48:26,638 --> 05:48:32,558
construction toys, we know that Lego
7101
05:48:29,120 --> 05:48:37,120
isn't the only brand around.
7102
05:48:32,558 --> 05:48:39,760
What Lego provides is a quality product.
7103
05:48:37,120 --> 05:48:42,558
Maybe one part is wrong for every 10,000
7104
05:48:39,760 --> 05:48:45,360
or 100,000 items. And if you are missing
7105
05:48:42,558 --> 05:48:47,520
an item from a box, or if it is faulty,
7106
05:48:45,360 --> 05:48:48,958
the company's after sales service will
7107
05:48:47,520 --> 05:48:52,360
not question the fact that you are
7108
05:48:48,958 --> 05:48:52,360
missing a part.
7109
05:48:53,200 --> 05:48:59,440
And then the magic happened.
7110
05:48:56,798 --> 05:49:03,680
Lego introduced something no toy company
7111
05:48:59,440 --> 05:49:07,520
had done at scale. Fully themed worlds.
7112
05:49:03,680 --> 05:49:08,878
Space town castles.
7113
05:49:07,520 --> 05:49:11,280
Children weren't just building
7114
05:49:08,878 --> 05:49:13,200
structures anymore. They were building
7115
05:49:11,280 --> 05:49:16,718
stories.
7116
05:49:13,200 --> 05:49:18,638
In 1978, LEGO released its most iconic
7117
05:49:16,718 --> 05:49:20,240
invention since the brick, the
7118
05:49:18,638 --> 05:49:23,200
minifigure.
7119
05:49:20,240 --> 05:49:25,680
It had a simple face, hands shaped like
7120
05:49:23,200 --> 05:49:29,360
a sea and feet made to stand on [music]
7121
05:49:25,680 --> 05:49:31,280
studs. A tiny character that let kids
7122
05:49:29,360 --> 05:49:32,798
project themselves into entire
7123
05:49:31,280 --> 05:49:35,440
universes.
7124
05:49:32,798 --> 05:49:39,680
Stories now had heroes and Lego [music]
7125
05:49:35,440 --> 05:49:41,840
had a heartbeat. In the late 1970s, Lego
7126
05:49:39,680 --> 05:49:44,480
was already run by the third Christensen
7127
05:49:41,840 --> 05:49:47,280
generation. Ole's grandson [music]
7128
05:49:44,480 --> 05:49:50,638
killed began shaping the company into
7129
05:49:47,280 --> 05:49:52,240
the global powerhouse we know today.
7130
05:49:50,638 --> 05:49:54,958
He did so by creating [music] more
7131
05:49:52,240 --> 05:49:58,240
sophisticated lines, bringing in new
7132
05:49:54,958 --> 05:50:00,638
universes, technic brought mechanics,
7133
05:49:58,240 --> 05:50:03,600
pirates brought adventure, and trains
7134
05:50:00,638 --> 05:50:06,000
brought motion. By the late 20th
7135
05:50:03,600 --> 05:50:08,958
century, the global toy market was
7136
05:50:06,000 --> 05:50:11,120
becoming massive. Tens of billions of
7137
05:50:08,958 --> 05:50:13,040
dollars a year worth.
7138
05:50:11,120 --> 05:50:15,840
The United States [music] spent more on
7139
05:50:13,040 --> 05:50:17,680
toys than any country on Earth. And
7140
05:50:15,840 --> 05:50:21,200
China produced [music] most of them,
7141
05:50:17,680 --> 05:50:24,160
nearly 3/4 of the world's total.
7142
05:50:21,200 --> 05:50:27,058
In this booming landscape, Lego wasn't
7143
05:50:24,160 --> 05:50:29,078
just another toy. It was the toy.
7144
05:50:27,058 --> 05:50:29,078
[music]
7145
05:50:34,638 --> 05:50:39,360
By the late 1990s, [music]
7146
05:50:36,638 --> 05:50:42,080
Lego was flying high. It had become one
7147
05:50:39,360 --> 05:50:43,360
of the most admired companies in Europe.
7148
05:50:42,080 --> 05:50:45,520
A creative powerhouse [music]
7149
05:50:43,360 --> 05:50:48,240
built on the philosophy of imagination
7150
05:50:45,520 --> 05:50:49,840
and creation. We're not focused only on
7151
05:50:48,240 --> 05:50:52,000
childhood, but on [music] something that
7152
05:50:49,840 --> 05:50:54,080
has quite literally built us, pun
7153
05:50:52,000 --> 05:50:56,798
intended, shaping our personalities
7154
05:50:54,080 --> 05:50:58,878
through Lego from an early age. Those
7155
05:50:56,798 --> 05:51:01,768
memories became a foundation we've kept
7156
05:50:58,878 --> 05:51:02,558
building on over time.
7157
05:51:01,768 --> 05:51:04,480
[music]
7158
05:51:02,558 --> 05:51:06,400
That's why exhibitions like this bring
7159
05:51:04,480 --> 05:51:09,360
us straight back to childhood. The
7160
05:51:06,400 --> 05:51:11,440
audience here is very diverse, but once
7161
05:51:09,360 --> 05:51:13,680
people walk in, they all become the boy
7162
05:51:11,440 --> 05:51:16,638
or girl they once were.
7163
05:51:13,680 --> 05:51:18,958
>> But it's not all gold that glitters.
7164
05:51:16,638 --> 05:51:21,920
Under the surface, something dangerous
7165
05:51:18,958 --> 05:51:24,160
was creeping in. The toy market was
7166
05:51:21,920 --> 05:51:25,520
changing fast. Children were spending
7167
05:51:24,160 --> 05:51:28,480
more and more [music] time with video
7168
05:51:25,520 --> 05:51:30,798
games and early computer entertainment.
7169
05:51:28,480 --> 05:51:32,480
Sony's PlayStation, Nintendo, and
7170
05:51:30,798 --> 05:51:35,280
Hasbro's electronic [music] toys were
7171
05:51:32,480 --> 05:51:38,000
capturing attention. And LEGO,
7172
05:51:35,280 --> 05:51:40,718
determined not to fall behind, expanded
7173
05:51:38,000 --> 05:51:43,200
too far too fast.
7174
05:51:40,718 --> 05:51:45,360
Throughout the 1990s, [music] LEGO began
7175
05:51:43,200 --> 05:51:48,160
introducing thousands of completely new
7176
05:51:45,360 --> 05:51:51,120
pieces, specialized parts that not only
7177
05:51:48,160 --> 05:51:54,958
worked in one set. A single year could
7178
05:51:51,120 --> 05:51:57,120
bring more than 350 new designs. Each of
7179
05:51:54,958 --> 05:51:59,520
them costing tens of thousands of
7180
05:51:57,120 --> 05:52:01,760
dollars in steel machining and precision
7181
05:51:59,520 --> 05:52:03,600
engineering.
7182
05:52:01,760 --> 05:52:05,920
In 2002,
7183
05:52:03,600 --> 05:52:08,878
LEGO had more than 12,000 active
7184
05:52:05,920 --> 05:52:11,360
elements. The system of play, once
7185
05:52:08,878 --> 05:52:14,638
simple and universal, was becoming
7186
05:52:11,360 --> 05:52:17,680
chaotic and difficult to follow. LEGO
7187
05:52:14,638 --> 05:52:19,760
also tried becoming a lifestyle brand.
7188
05:52:17,680 --> 05:52:22,958
New ventures appeared everywhere.
7189
05:52:19,760 --> 05:52:25,120
Clothing lines, theme parks, homegoods,
7190
05:52:22,958 --> 05:52:26,878
cartoon series, even watches and
7191
05:52:25,120 --> 05:52:28,798
sneakers.
7192
05:52:26,878 --> 05:52:31,360
But these projects drained resources
7193
05:52:28,798 --> 05:52:35,440
without reinforcing the core product.
7194
05:52:31,360 --> 05:52:39,280
the brick. And between 1999 and [music]
7195
05:52:35,440 --> 05:52:41,440
2003, LEGO sales collapsed.
7196
05:52:39,280 --> 05:52:43,950
During these years, the company went
7197
05:52:41,440 --> 05:52:46,798
from doubledigit growth to struggling.
7198
05:52:43,950 --> 05:52:49,120
[music] And by 2003, the company was
7199
05:52:46,798 --> 05:52:52,240
losing the equivalent of $1 million a
7200
05:52:49,120 --> 05:52:55,360
day. In a global toy [music] market,
7201
05:52:52,240 --> 05:52:58,320
still worth more than $70 billion US at
7202
05:52:55,360 --> 05:53:00,320
the time, Lego, once the king of the toy
7203
05:52:58,320 --> 05:53:02,240
box, [music] was only a few steps away
7204
05:53:00,320 --> 05:53:05,360
from bankruptcy.
7205
05:53:02,240 --> 05:53:09,600
Times were dark, but a spark of genius
7206
05:53:05,360 --> 05:53:12,000
appeared. In 1999, LEGO signed its first
7207
05:53:09,600 --> 05:53:13,840
ever licensing deal with no other than
7208
05:53:12,000 --> 05:53:16,878
Lucasfilm.
7209
05:53:13,840 --> 05:53:20,160
The timing was perfect. Star Wars
7210
05:53:16,878 --> 05:53:22,878
Episode 1 was about to hit theaters.
7211
05:53:20,160 --> 05:53:25,920
Hype was global and the first Lego Star
7212
05:53:22,878 --> 05:53:29,120
Wars sets were instant hits, not just
7213
05:53:25,920 --> 05:53:31,200
with children, with adults. Collectors
7214
05:53:29,120 --> 05:53:33,280
lined up to buy the X-wing, the
7215
05:53:31,200 --> 05:53:36,638
Snowspeeder, or the first Millennium
7216
05:53:33,280 --> 05:53:39,440
Falcon. For the first time in LEGO's
7217
05:53:36,638 --> 05:53:42,240
history, adults, including those in
7218
05:53:39,440 --> 05:53:43,120
their 30s and 40s, were buying sets for
7219
05:53:42,240 --> 05:53:45,040
themselves.
7220
05:53:43,120 --> 05:53:47,840
>> The adult fan of Lego community is
7221
05:53:45,040 --> 05:53:49,920
getting bigger. This is because Lego is
7222
05:53:47,840 --> 05:53:52,400
not the same as it was 20 or 30 years
7223
05:53:49,920 --> 05:53:54,718
ago.
7224
05:53:52,400 --> 05:53:56,558
Before, Lego was only seen as a toy to
7225
05:53:54,718 --> 05:53:59,558
play with when it was cold and you were
7226
05:53:56,558 --> 05:53:59,558
indoors.
7227
05:53:59,920 --> 05:54:04,798
Today, Lego is much more than a toy.
7228
05:54:02,400 --> 05:54:07,120
It's used to create logos to design
7229
05:54:04,798 --> 05:54:10,080
dynamic group activities. And it also
7230
05:54:07,120 --> 05:54:12,320
represents a shift in how we see it.
7231
05:54:10,080 --> 05:54:14,718
years ago, if you said you played with
7232
05:54:12,320 --> 05:54:17,120
Lego or built Lego, you almost had to
7233
05:54:14,718 --> 05:54:18,958
explain yourself that you were at home
7234
05:54:17,120 --> 05:54:21,760
playing with little figures making up
7235
05:54:18,958 --> 05:54:23,600
battles. What we do today is different.
7236
05:54:21,760 --> 05:54:27,360
We come together as a community of
7237
05:54:23,600 --> 05:54:29,200
adults and LEGO has recognized that.
7238
05:54:27,360 --> 05:54:31,520
That's why more and more products are
7239
05:54:29,200 --> 05:54:34,160
now designed specifically for adults,
7240
05:54:31,520 --> 05:54:37,160
more complex to build, and also more
7241
05:54:34,160 --> 05:54:37,160
expensive.
7242
05:54:38,320 --> 05:54:42,638
This kid demographic [music] would later
7243
05:54:40,638 --> 05:54:45,780
become one of LEGO's most profitable
7244
05:54:42,638 --> 05:54:47,840
segments. More licenses followed.
7245
05:54:45,780 --> 05:54:50,718
[music] Harry Potter, Spider-Man,
7246
05:54:47,840 --> 05:54:53,760
Batman, Indiana Jones, and later the
7247
05:54:50,718 --> 05:54:55,360
newest Marvel Cinematic Universe.
7248
05:54:53,760 --> 05:54:58,160
Even though LEGO learned that
7249
05:54:55,360 --> 05:55:00,558
storytelling sells, in 2004, [music]
7250
05:54:58,160 --> 05:55:02,080
losses were mounting and survival was
7251
05:55:00,558 --> 05:55:04,080
uncertain.
7252
05:55:02,080 --> 05:55:06,080
And then [music] the company made a
7253
05:55:04,080 --> 05:55:08,480
radical decision.
7254
05:55:06,080 --> 05:55:10,878
For the first time in its history, the
7255
05:55:08,480 --> 05:55:14,558
company appointed a CEO from outside the
7256
05:55:10,878 --> 05:55:16,958
Christensen family, Jurgen Victor,
7257
05:55:14,558 --> 05:55:20,798
a 35-year-old former McKenzie
7258
05:55:16,958 --> 05:55:22,320
consultant. He was calm, precise,
7259
05:55:20,798 --> 05:55:26,000
analytical,
7260
05:55:22,320 --> 05:55:29,760
and brutally honest. His diagnosis was
7261
05:55:26,000 --> 05:55:31,600
simple. Lego had forgotten what made it
7262
05:55:29,760 --> 05:55:33,840
Lego.
7263
05:55:31,600 --> 05:55:37,200
Kutto cut the number of unique elements
7264
05:55:33,840 --> 05:55:39,840
by nearly 50%. He sold off the theme
7265
05:55:37,200 --> 05:55:42,638
parks. He shut down unprofitable
7266
05:55:39,840 --> 05:55:44,638
production facilities. He centralized
7267
05:55:42,638 --> 05:55:46,958
supply [music] chains, standardized
7268
05:55:44,638 --> 05:55:50,160
materials, and brought back discipline
7269
05:55:46,958 --> 05:55:52,240
to the system. But more important, he
7270
05:55:50,160 --> 05:55:55,240
put the brick back at the center of the
7271
05:55:52,240 --> 05:55:55,240
company.
7272
05:55:56,878 --> 05:56:01,760
This turnaround didn't happen in
7273
05:55:58,718 --> 05:56:05,040
isolation. The global toy industry was
7274
05:56:01,760 --> 05:56:07,680
undergoing a seismic change. China was
7275
05:56:05,040 --> 05:56:10,160
producing nearly 75% of the world's
7276
05:56:07,680 --> 05:56:13,280
toys, being the largest manufacturing
7277
05:56:10,160 --> 05:56:15,440
consolidation in toy history.
7278
05:56:13,280 --> 05:56:18,000
Meanwhile, the United States had become
7279
05:56:15,440 --> 05:56:20,240
the single largest consumer, responsible
7280
05:56:18,000 --> 05:56:23,240
for nearly onethird of the global toy
7281
05:56:20,240 --> 05:56:23,240
spending.
7282
05:56:23,440 --> 05:56:30,000
By 2005, the [music] toy market was
7283
05:56:26,400 --> 05:56:32,958
worth close to $80 billion US. But it
7284
05:56:30,000 --> 05:56:35,840
was brutally competitive as well.
7285
05:56:32,958 --> 05:56:38,320
Seasonality was extreme. Nearly half of
7286
05:56:35,840 --> 05:56:41,920
the annual toy sales occurred in just 3
7287
05:56:38,320 --> 05:56:45,040
months from October to December.
7288
05:56:41,920 --> 05:56:46,718
Companies lived or died by Christmas.
7289
05:56:45,040 --> 05:56:49,440
Mattel was [music] battling declining
7290
05:56:46,718 --> 05:56:51,120
Barbie sales. Hasbro was betting its
7291
05:56:49,440 --> 05:56:52,958
future on Transformers and board [music]
7292
05:56:51,120 --> 05:56:54,798
game reinventions.
7293
05:56:52,958 --> 05:56:57,760
Electronics were eating market share
7294
05:56:54,798 --> 05:57:00,240
across every age group. In this
7295
05:56:57,760 --> 05:57:04,160
scenario, LEGO rebuilt [music]
7296
05:57:00,240 --> 05:57:07,262
and refocused and then began rising
7297
05:57:04,160 --> 05:57:09,282
above all of them.
7298
05:57:07,262 --> 05:57:09,282
[snorts]
7299
05:57:11,280 --> 05:57:18,080
Between 2008 and 2015, LEGO entered a
7300
05:57:15,520 --> 05:57:20,558
new era, [music] a renaissance driven by
7301
05:57:18,080 --> 05:57:24,000
design, storytelling, digital
7302
05:57:20,558 --> 05:57:25,840
engagement, and [music] adult passion.
7303
05:57:24,000 --> 05:57:28,798
The company launched the ultimate
7304
05:57:25,840 --> 05:57:30,718
collector series, producing the largest,
7305
05:57:28,798 --> 05:57:32,240
most detailed [music] models in toy
7306
05:57:30,718 --> 05:57:34,480
history.
7307
05:57:32,240 --> 05:57:36,080
LEGO architecture brought landmarks to
7308
05:57:34,480 --> 05:57:38,320
coffee tables. [music]
7309
05:57:36,080 --> 05:57:40,958
Modular buildings turned living rooms
7310
05:57:38,320 --> 05:57:43,360
into miniature cities, and adults were
7311
05:57:40,958 --> 05:57:46,240
no longer hiding their Lego hobby, but
7312
05:57:43,360 --> 05:57:48,240
embracing it. My story with Lego began
7313
05:57:46,240 --> 05:57:50,240
in the early '9s when I was a small
7314
05:57:48,240 --> 05:57:52,320
child.
7315
05:57:50,240 --> 05:57:54,240
I started playing, but then I stopped
7316
05:57:52,320 --> 05:57:55,920
for a while.
7317
05:57:54,240 --> 05:57:58,240
This is what most of us want to do when
7318
05:57:55,920 --> 05:58:02,600
we are teenagers to do other hobbies and
7319
05:57:58,240 --> 05:58:02,600
spend less time playing with Lego.
7320
05:58:03,200 --> 05:58:08,480
After that, when I was in my early 20s,
7321
05:58:05,120 --> 05:58:10,638
I started collecting Lego. I met people
7322
05:58:08,480 --> 05:58:13,200
from the Valencian community and founded
7323
05:58:10,638 --> 05:58:15,120
Valrech.
7324
05:58:13,200 --> 05:58:17,600
That eventually led me to a television
7325
05:58:15,120 --> 05:58:19,840
show where I took part and won. From
7326
05:58:17,600 --> 05:58:23,320
there, companies began approaching me to
7327
05:58:19,840 --> 05:58:23,320
develop projects.
7328
05:58:24,638 --> 05:58:28,320
At first, this hadn't even occurred to
7329
05:58:26,558 --> 05:58:30,718
me,
7330
05:58:28,320 --> 05:58:32,958
but I started to see a growing demand.
7331
05:58:30,718 --> 05:58:35,200
Whether it was building a corporate kit,
7332
05:58:32,958 --> 05:58:38,480
like a transport company's truck, or
7333
05:58:35,200 --> 05:58:40,160
even a company's logistics headquarters,
7334
05:58:38,480 --> 05:58:42,240
this market opened up a professional
7335
05:58:40,160 --> 05:58:44,160
path for me.
7336
05:58:42,240 --> 05:58:47,680
It supports me financially, but more
7337
05:58:44,160 --> 05:58:49,600
importantly, it's deeply rewarding.
7338
05:58:47,680 --> 05:58:51,280
Many of these projects challenge me to
7339
05:58:49,600 --> 05:58:52,718
build things I would never choose on my
7340
05:58:51,280 --> 05:58:55,440
own.
7341
05:58:52,718 --> 05:58:57,360
But once a challenge is set, build this.
7342
05:58:55,440 --> 05:59:00,160
My mind immediately starts collecting
7343
05:58:57,360 --> 05:59:02,160
ideas, figuring out how to shape them
7344
05:59:00,160 --> 05:59:06,040
and bring the project to life in the
7345
05:59:02,160 --> 05:59:06,040
best possible way.
7346
05:59:10,402 --> 05:59:12,422
[music]
7347
05:59:12,798 --> 05:59:17,680
events, engineering cups, a [music]
7348
05:59:15,200 --> 05:59:21,440
global movement emerged.
7349
05:59:17,680 --> 05:59:23,280
By 2014, adults accounted for nearly 1/3
7350
05:59:21,440 --> 05:59:25,760
of [music] LEGO sales.
7351
05:59:23,280 --> 05:59:28,080
>> To anyone who thinks Lego is only for
7352
05:59:25,760 --> 05:59:29,600
children, I'd say come and see the
7353
05:59:28,080 --> 05:59:31,440
exhibition.
7354
05:59:29,600 --> 05:59:34,240
See what we're capable of creating with
7355
05:59:31,440 --> 05:59:38,240
Lego pieces and how imagination develops
7356
05:59:34,240 --> 05:59:40,400
in both children and adults.
7357
05:59:38,240 --> 05:59:43,280
Children work within certain limits and
7358
05:59:40,400 --> 05:59:45,920
see things differently, but adults with
7359
05:59:43,280 --> 05:59:48,558
a wider range of colors, shapes, and
7360
05:59:45,920 --> 05:59:51,760
ways to use the pieces can explore just
7361
05:59:48,558 --> 05:59:53,632
how much is possible.
7362
05:59:51,760 --> 05:59:56,080
>> It was a radical shift in the economics
7363
05:59:53,632 --> 05:59:58,480
[music] of play. And then came the
7364
05:59:56,080 --> 06:00:01,520
cultural explosion.
7365
05:59:58,480 --> 06:00:04,638
In 2014, The Lego Movie shattered
7366
06:00:01,520 --> 06:00:07,920
expectations, earning nearly $500
7367
06:00:04,638 --> 06:00:10,878
million US at the box office.
7368
06:00:07,920 --> 06:00:15,200
What started as a toy was now pop
7369
06:00:10,878 --> 06:00:17,212
culture. By the mid 2010s, LEGO was the
7370
06:00:15,200 --> 06:00:19,520
world's most valuable toy company,
7371
06:00:17,212 --> 06:00:22,240
[music] even surpassing Mattel, Hasbro,
7372
06:00:19,520 --> 06:00:24,240
and every other competitor.
7373
06:00:22,240 --> 06:00:27,680
The brick that [music] started it all
7374
06:00:24,240 --> 06:00:31,024
was no longer just a product. It was a
7375
06:00:27,680 --> 06:00:31,024
global icon. [music]
7376
06:00:33,120 --> 06:00:37,200
The LEGO Group stands today as [music]
7377
06:00:35,200 --> 06:00:39,200
one of the most efficient, profitable,
7378
06:00:37,200 --> 06:00:42,000
and culturally influential toy companies
7379
06:00:39,200 --> 06:00:44,240
on Earth. Its factories run with near
7380
06:00:42,000 --> 06:00:46,400
perfect precision.
7381
06:00:44,240 --> 06:00:49,600
Its design teams develop thousands of
7382
06:00:46,400 --> 06:00:51,600
prototypes each year. Its supply chain
7383
06:00:49,600 --> 06:00:54,400
delivers billions of bricks that must
7384
06:00:51,600 --> 06:00:56,240
all fit together flawlessly across
7385
06:00:54,400 --> 06:00:58,958
decades.
7386
06:00:56,240 --> 06:01:02,958
In a global toy market worth roughly
7387
06:00:58,958 --> 06:01:07,280
$120 billion a year, Lego commands
7388
06:01:02,958 --> 06:01:10,160
nearly 9% of all worldwide toy sales. No
7389
06:01:07,280 --> 06:01:13,040
other toy brand, not Barbie, not Marvel
7390
06:01:10,160 --> 06:01:15,200
figures, not Nintendo merchandise,
7391
06:01:13,040 --> 06:01:17,474
maintains such consistency across
7392
06:01:15,200 --> 06:01:18,878
continents, genders, and generations.
7393
06:01:17,474 --> 06:01:20,878
[music]
7394
06:01:18,878 --> 06:01:24,000
And unlike most toy companies that
7395
06:01:20,878 --> 06:01:25,440
outsource manufacturing, LEGO controls a
7396
06:01:24,000 --> 06:01:28,558
significant portion of its own
7397
06:01:25,440 --> 06:01:31,120
production with major hubs in Denmark,
7398
06:01:28,558 --> 06:01:33,120
Hungary, Mexico, China, and the Czech
7399
06:01:31,120 --> 06:01:35,920
Republic.
7400
06:01:33,120 --> 06:01:38,160
This vertical integration reduces risk,
7401
06:01:35,920 --> 06:01:40,320
stabilizes [music] quality, and protects
7402
06:01:38,160 --> 06:01:43,680
one of the most important values in the
7403
06:01:40,320 --> 06:01:45,920
company's DNA, precision.
7404
06:01:43,680 --> 06:01:48,240
Every Lego brick must be manufactured
7405
06:01:45,920 --> 06:01:51,360
with tolerances thinner than a strand of
7406
06:01:48,240 --> 06:01:54,878
hair. If the clutch is too tight, the
7407
06:01:51,360 --> 06:01:58,000
model breaks. If it's too loose, towers
7408
06:01:54,878 --> 06:02:00,718
collapse. Across billions of pieces,
7409
06:01:58,000 --> 06:02:04,878
perfection is not an ambition. [music]
7410
06:02:00,718 --> 06:02:06,958
It is an engineering reality for LEGO.
7411
06:02:04,878 --> 06:02:09,120
This level of detail gives the company
7412
06:02:06,958 --> 06:02:11,840
one of the highest brand trust ratings
7413
06:02:09,120 --> 06:02:13,040
in the world. Parents know the bricks
7414
06:02:11,840 --> 06:02:15,520
will last.
7415
06:02:13,040 --> 06:02:17,760
Adults know the sets will impress.
7416
06:02:15,520 --> 06:02:19,440
Collectors know the investment will hold
7417
06:02:17,760 --> 06:02:21,680
value.
7418
06:02:19,440 --> 06:02:24,480
The modern toy market is a machine of
7419
06:02:21,680 --> 06:02:26,160
impulse, tradition, celebration, and
7420
06:02:24,480 --> 06:02:28,080
nostalgia.
7421
06:02:26,160 --> 06:02:31,600
In 2025,
7422
06:02:28,080 --> 06:02:34,638
global spending on toys approaches $120
7423
06:02:31,600 --> 06:02:37,360
billion, nearly double what it was two
7424
06:02:34,638 --> 06:02:39,920
decades earlier. The United States
7425
06:02:37,360 --> 06:02:41,680
remains the world's largest consumer,
7426
06:02:39,920 --> 06:02:44,558
accounting for roughly onethird of
7427
06:02:41,680 --> 06:02:47,200
global sales. A typical American
7428
06:02:44,558 --> 06:02:49,920
household with children may spend $300
7429
06:02:47,200 --> 06:02:52,878
to $400 per [music] child per year on
7430
06:02:49,920 --> 06:02:55,200
toys. This is more than five times the
7431
06:02:52,878 --> 06:02:57,600
global average.
7432
06:02:55,200 --> 06:02:59,280
Europe forms the second largest block
7433
06:02:57,600 --> 06:03:02,798
with strong purchasing [music] power in
7434
06:02:59,280 --> 06:03:05,200
Germany, the United Kingdom, and France.
7435
06:03:02,798 --> 06:03:07,680
Asia-Pacific [music] is rapidly growing,
7436
06:03:05,200 --> 06:03:10,558
especially in China, South Korea, and
7437
06:03:07,680 --> 06:03:13,200
Japan, driven by rising middle classes
7438
06:03:10,558 --> 06:03:15,378
and urban lifestyles.
7439
06:03:13,200 --> 06:03:18,958
But the most important shift of the last
7440
06:03:15,378 --> 06:03:20,616
[music] decade is not geographic, it is
7441
06:03:18,958 --> 06:03:22,634
demographic.
7442
06:03:20,616 --> 06:03:22,634
[laughter]
7443
06:03:26,080 --> 06:03:30,638
adults. Once considered [music]
7444
06:03:28,080 --> 06:03:33,600
irrelevant to the toy industry and now
7445
06:03:30,638 --> 06:03:36,320
one of the most powerful forces, this
7446
06:03:33,600 --> 06:03:39,360
growing segment, commonly called the kid
7447
06:03:36,320 --> 06:03:43,360
market, now represents between 25 and
7448
06:03:39,360 --> 06:03:45,920
30% of all toy purchases worldwide.
7449
06:03:43,360 --> 06:03:49,040
Adults buy toys for nostalgia, for
7450
06:03:45,920 --> 06:03:52,000
stress [music] relief, for display, for
7451
06:03:49,040 --> 06:03:54,480
identity. Lego is the undisputed
7452
06:03:52,000 --> 06:03:59,638
champion of this movement. Unlike other
7453
06:03:54,480 --> 06:03:59,638
hobbies, Lego gives me a sense of calm.
7454
06:04:00,718 --> 06:04:05,360
It lets me take ideas from my mind,
7455
06:04:03,120 --> 06:04:08,718
bring them to life, think them through,
7456
06:04:05,360 --> 06:04:11,520
and simply enjoy the process. Right now,
7457
06:04:08,718 --> 06:04:14,080
I'm trying to instill that in my son to
7458
06:04:11,520 --> 06:04:16,000
enjoy himself to learn to see colors and
7459
06:04:14,080 --> 06:04:19,440
shapes and to understand that with
7460
06:04:16,000 --> 06:04:22,718
imagination, anything is possible.
7461
06:04:19,440 --> 06:04:25,280
Its premium sets, Technic Hypercars,
7462
06:04:22,718 --> 06:04:28,000
Star Wars Ultimate Collector Series,
7463
06:04:25,280 --> 06:04:30,320
iconic landmarks, regularly exceed
7464
06:04:28,000 --> 06:04:32,638
prices of $30,500,
7465
06:04:30,320 --> 06:04:35,360
even $800.
7466
06:04:32,638 --> 06:04:37,200
They sell out within hours. They hold
7467
06:04:35,360 --> 06:04:40,000
aftermarket values like fine
7468
06:04:37,200 --> 06:04:42,320
collectibles. This adult segment has
7469
06:04:40,000 --> 06:04:45,360
reshaped the entire financial landscape
7470
06:04:42,320 --> 06:04:48,480
of the company. It provides stability
7471
06:04:45,360 --> 06:04:51,680
when children's trends shift. It creates
7472
06:04:48,480 --> 06:04:53,840
recurring revenue from loyal fans and it
7473
06:04:51,680 --> 06:04:56,718
strengthens LEGO's position as a
7474
06:04:53,840 --> 06:04:58,000
crossgenerational brand, something few
7475
06:04:56,718 --> 06:04:59,760
toy companies have [music] ever
7476
06:04:58,000 --> 06:05:02,000
achieved.
7477
06:04:59,760 --> 06:05:04,958
Seasonality still dictates much of the
7478
06:05:02,000 --> 06:05:07,280
global toy market. Every year, nearly
7479
06:05:04,958 --> 06:05:10,638
half of all toy sales occur between
7480
06:05:07,280 --> 06:05:13,520
October and December. Companies live or
7481
06:05:10,638 --> 06:05:16,798
die by holiday forecasting, inventory
7482
06:05:13,520 --> 06:05:19,520
strategy, and shipment timing. But LEGO
7483
06:05:16,798 --> 06:05:22,400
has become the exception. Adult
7484
06:05:19,520 --> 06:05:24,718
collectors buy year round. Digital
7485
06:05:22,400 --> 06:05:27,840
experiences drive sales outside the
7486
06:05:24,718 --> 06:05:31,120
holiday season. Licensed launches create
7487
06:05:27,840 --> 06:05:33,840
anticipation even in slow quarters.
7488
06:05:31,120 --> 06:05:35,840
LEGO has effectively freed itself or at
7489
06:05:33,840 --> 06:05:37,920
least partially from the seasonal
7490
06:05:35,840 --> 06:05:41,360
dependency that has defined the toy
7491
06:05:37,920 --> 06:05:45,200
industry for over a century. The brick
7492
06:05:41,360 --> 06:05:47,680
is physical, tangible, mechanical. But
7493
06:05:45,200 --> 06:05:51,440
Lego's success in the 21st century
7494
06:05:47,680 --> 06:05:55,120
extends into digital worlds. Star Wars,
7495
06:05:51,440 --> 06:05:57,120
Batman, Marvel. These games defined an
7496
06:05:55,120 --> 06:06:00,160
entire generation of familyfriendly
7497
06:05:57,120 --> 06:06:02,878
titles. They sold tens of millions of
7498
06:06:00,160 --> 06:06:05,840
copies. They introduced humor,
7499
06:06:02,878 --> 06:06:08,798
storytelling, and simplicity to a medium
7500
06:06:05,840 --> 06:06:10,958
often dominated by complexity.
7501
06:06:08,798 --> 06:06:13,540
For many children born after the year
7502
06:06:10,958 --> 06:06:16,798
2000, Lego was not discovered in a
7503
06:06:13,540 --> 06:06:20,000
[music] toy box, but on a screen. The
7504
06:06:16,798 --> 06:06:22,878
cinematic leap came in 2014 when the
7505
06:06:20,000 --> 06:06:25,920
Lego movie premiered to global acclaim.
7506
06:06:22,878 --> 06:06:28,878
It turned nearly half a billion dollars.
7507
06:06:25,920 --> 06:06:32,240
Most importantly, it reframed Lego as a
7508
06:06:28,878 --> 06:06:34,558
cultural idea, not a product. The film
7509
06:06:32,240 --> 06:06:37,840
taught a global audience that creativity
7510
06:06:34,558 --> 06:06:39,920
matters, that imperfection is beautiful,
7511
06:06:37,840 --> 06:06:43,680
that building and rebuilding are not
7512
06:06:39,920 --> 06:06:46,798
failures, they are the process of play.
7513
06:06:43,680 --> 06:06:49,040
Lego Batman expanded the concept. Lego
7514
06:06:46,798 --> 06:06:52,320
Ninjago created an entirely new
7515
06:06:49,040 --> 06:06:54,400
generation of fans and Lego Masters on
7516
06:06:52,320 --> 06:06:56,558
television turned building into a
7517
06:06:54,400 --> 06:06:59,360
competitive art form.
7518
06:06:56,558 --> 06:07:02,638
The brand had moved beyond toys, beyond
7519
06:06:59,360 --> 06:07:05,200
stories, beyond bricks. It had become
7520
06:07:02,638 --> 06:07:08,200
part of the cultural grammar of the 21st
7521
06:07:05,200 --> 06:07:08,200
century.
7522
06:07:11,920 --> 06:07:16,240
Long before STEM became a global
7523
06:07:14,000 --> 06:07:19,440
movement, Lego was already teaching
7524
06:07:16,240 --> 06:07:22,958
children how to think like engineers. In
7525
06:07:19,440 --> 06:07:25,360
the 1990s, Lego Mindstorms introduced
7526
06:07:22,958 --> 06:07:28,798
programmable robotics to students around
7527
06:07:25,360 --> 06:07:31,600
the [music] world. Later sets, we do
7528
06:07:28,798 --> 06:07:33,840
Spike Prime Boost brought coding,
7529
06:07:31,600 --> 06:07:37,120
sensors, and motors into classrooms and
7530
06:07:33,840 --> 06:07:39,360
homes. Today, [music] LEGO Education
7531
06:07:37,120 --> 06:07:41,600
works with governments, schools, and
7532
06:07:39,360 --> 06:07:43,920
universities to bring hands-on learning
7533
06:07:41,600 --> 06:07:46,558
to millions of students. [music]
7534
06:07:43,920 --> 06:07:49,280
The philosophy is simple. Children learn
7535
06:07:46,558 --> 06:07:52,240
best through play. This approach shapes
7536
06:07:49,280 --> 06:07:53,520
future engineers, designers, and problem
7537
06:07:52,240 --> 06:07:55,440
solvers. [music]
7538
06:07:53,520 --> 06:07:58,558
It helps children experiment in ways
7539
06:07:55,440 --> 06:08:01,280
that textbooks cannot. And it continues
7540
06:07:58,558 --> 06:08:03,600
Olirk's belief that play is [music] not
7541
06:08:01,280 --> 06:08:06,320
a distraction from learning, but the
7542
06:08:03,600 --> 06:08:08,164
foundation of it.
7543
06:08:06,320 --> 06:08:09,120
In a world increasingly focused on
7544
06:08:08,164 --> 06:08:11,120
[music] sustainability,
7545
06:08:09,120 --> 06:08:13,120
>> from my experience, what makes Lego
7546
06:08:11,120 --> 06:08:15,920
different from other construction toys
7547
06:08:13,120 --> 06:08:18,240
is its growing commitment to inclusion.
7548
06:08:15,920 --> 06:08:19,600
In recent years, LEGO has actively
7549
06:08:18,240 --> 06:08:21,840
embraced people with different
7550
06:08:19,600 --> 06:08:23,760
abilities. For example, by including
7551
06:08:21,840 --> 06:08:26,480
figures in wheelchairs and releasing
7552
06:08:23,760 --> 06:08:28,320
sets in Braille. These are things most
7553
06:08:26,480 --> 06:08:30,400
other brands simply don't offer, but
7554
06:08:28,320 --> 06:08:32,638
LEGO does.
7555
06:08:30,400 --> 06:08:34,558
In addition, LEGO is strongly committed
7556
06:08:32,638 --> 06:08:36,160
to the environment.
7557
06:08:34,558 --> 06:08:38,400
They're producing more and more pieces
7558
06:08:36,160 --> 06:08:40,320
using recycled plastic and replacing
7559
06:08:38,400 --> 06:08:43,120
plastic packaging with paper to reduce
7560
06:08:40,320 --> 06:08:45,760
waste, something other brands simply
7561
06:08:43,120 --> 06:08:48,798
don't do.
7562
06:08:45,760 --> 06:08:51,280
Lego faces a unique challenge. Its
7563
06:08:48,798 --> 06:08:53,760
bricks are made to last forever. A
7564
06:08:51,280 --> 06:08:57,440
blessing for creativity, but a concern
7565
06:08:53,760 --> 06:08:59,200
in an era of plastic waste. In response,
7566
06:08:57,440 --> 06:09:01,440
LEGO has [music] invested hundreds of
7567
06:08:59,200 --> 06:09:03,600
millions of dollars into developing more
7568
06:09:01,440 --> 06:09:05,280
sustainable materials.
7569
06:09:03,600 --> 06:09:08,240
Plant-based polyethylene [music]
7570
06:09:05,280 --> 06:09:10,798
is already used for leaves and trees.
7571
06:09:08,240 --> 06:09:12,480
Recycled PT [music] prototypes continue
7572
06:09:10,798 --> 06:09:15,040
to advance.
7573
06:09:12,480 --> 06:09:18,480
Recycled PET prototypes continue to
7574
06:09:15,040 --> 06:09:21,520
advance. New polymer engineering aims to
7575
06:09:18,480 --> 06:09:24,718
create bricks as durable [music] as ABS
7576
06:09:21,520 --> 06:09:27,920
without the environmental cost.
7577
06:09:24,718 --> 06:09:29,680
This transition is not simple. A Lego
7578
06:09:27,920 --> 06:09:32,240
brick must interlock with [music]
7579
06:09:29,680 --> 06:09:33,920
perfect precision. A fraction of a
7580
06:09:32,240 --> 06:09:36,718
millimeter can make the difference
7581
06:09:33,920 --> 06:09:39,440
between wonder and frustration. [music]
7582
06:09:36,718 --> 06:09:41,840
But the mission is clear. A toy that
7583
06:09:39,440 --> 06:09:44,958
lasts forever should also protect the
7584
06:09:41,840 --> 06:09:48,000
world it is played in. Play is not a
7585
06:09:44,958 --> 06:09:50,240
luxury. Play is exploration. [music]
7586
06:09:48,000 --> 06:09:52,558
Play is curiosity.
7587
06:09:50,240 --> 06:09:54,400
Play is the earliest form of human
7588
06:09:52,558 --> 06:09:56,480
creativity. [music]
7589
06:09:54,400 --> 06:09:59,040
From wooden ducks in a small Danish
7590
06:09:56,480 --> 06:10:01,120
workshop to interlocking bricks that
7591
06:09:59,040 --> 06:10:04,480
span generations
7592
06:10:01,120 --> 06:10:07,360
to movies, video games, robotics, and
7593
06:10:04,480 --> 06:10:08,718
global fan communities. LEGO has
7594
06:10:07,360 --> 06:10:12,558
remained [music] loyal to a simple
7595
06:10:08,718 --> 06:10:16,718
truth. When we build, we grow. When we
7596
06:10:12,558 --> 06:10:20,520
imagine, we expand. When we play, we
7597
06:10:16,718 --> 06:10:20,520
become more human.
7598
06:10:24,400 --> 06:10:30,160
More than a century ago, a carpenter
7599
06:10:27,200 --> 06:10:32,958
rebuilt his workshop after a fire. He
7600
06:10:30,160 --> 06:10:35,760
rebuilt it again after another.
7601
06:10:32,958 --> 06:10:38,240
Not because it was easy, but because he
7602
06:10:35,760 --> 06:10:41,680
believed in the power of making things
7603
06:10:38,240 --> 06:10:43,680
and in the power of play. Today,
7604
06:10:41,680 --> 06:10:47,280
billions of creations have risen from
7605
06:10:43,680 --> 06:10:49,120
that belief. Cities, castles,
7606
06:10:47,280 --> 06:10:51,120
spaceships,
7607
06:10:49,120 --> 06:10:54,320
dreams that exist nowhere else but in
7608
06:10:51,120 --> 06:10:57,360
the minds of the people who build them.
7609
06:10:54,320 --> 06:10:59,600
Lego is not perfect. It has faced
7610
06:10:57,360 --> 06:11:03,440
crises, challenges, [screaming] and
7611
06:10:59,600 --> 06:11:05,440
impossible decisions. But it endures
7612
06:11:03,440 --> 06:11:08,798
through war, through technological
7613
06:11:05,440 --> 06:11:12,480
revolutions, through economic storms.
7614
06:11:08,798 --> 06:11:14,400
Because imagination always endures.
7615
06:11:12,480 --> 06:11:16,806
And as long as there are hands reaching
7616
06:11:14,400 --> 06:11:19,680
for bricks, as long as there are minds
7617
06:11:16,806 --> 06:11:23,280
[music] ready to create, the legacy of
7618
06:11:19,680 --> 06:11:28,920
Ole Kirk Christensen will continue.
7619
06:11:23,280 --> 06:11:28,920
Every dream starts with a single piece.
7620
06:12:55,040 --> 06:13:02,718
Jensen Hang the Software Moat.
7621
06:12:59,280 --> 06:13:06,080
June 18th, 2024.
7622
06:13:02,718 --> 06:13:08,480
For a brief historic moment, the world
7623
06:13:06,080 --> 06:13:11,200
had a new king.
7624
06:13:08,480 --> 06:13:14,080
Jensen Huang, the [music] co-founder and
7625
06:13:11,200 --> 06:13:18,320
CEO of Nvidia, stood at the peak of a
7626
06:13:14,080 --> 06:13:20,638
$3.4 trillion mountain.
7627
06:13:18,320 --> 06:13:23,680
Analysts whispered that he wasn't just
7628
06:13:20,638 --> 06:13:27,280
leading a company. He was leading the
7629
06:13:23,680 --> 06:13:30,240
first entity destined for a $4 trillion
7630
06:13:27,280 --> 06:13:32,160
valuation.
7631
06:13:30,240 --> 06:13:35,680
But to understand the man in the leather
7632
06:13:32,160 --> 06:13:39,440
jacket, you cannot look at the triumph.
7633
06:13:35,680 --> 06:13:43,760
You must look at the fear. Behind the
7634
06:13:39,440 --> 06:13:47,200
250% revenue jumps and the soldout age
7635
06:13:43,760 --> 06:13:49,680
100 backlogs lies a leader obsessed with
7636
06:13:47,200 --> 06:13:51,440
the cyclical trap.
7637
06:13:49,680 --> 06:13:52,958
In the 60-year history of
7638
06:13:51,440 --> 06:13:55,760
semiconductors,
7639
06:13:52,958 --> 06:13:59,840
giants like Texas Instruments, Intel,
7640
06:13:55,760 --> 06:14:02,878
and Samsung have all held the crown only
7641
06:13:59,840 --> 06:14:05,920
to see it slip away.
7642
06:14:02,878 --> 06:14:10,438
Jensen's mission is simple. Break the
7643
06:14:05,920 --> 06:14:10,438
cycle before it breaks him. [music]
7644
06:14:10,718 --> 06:14:16,160
Flashback to September 1996.
7645
06:14:13,840 --> 06:14:18,798
The golden [music] era of the internet
7646
06:14:16,160 --> 06:14:22,798
is dawning for everyone else but for
7647
06:14:18,798 --> 06:14:25,920
Nvidia. It is a [music] death nail.
7648
06:14:22,798 --> 06:14:28,798
Their first chip, the NV1, is a
7649
06:14:25,920 --> 06:14:31,280
technical ghost rejected by Microsoft's
7650
06:14:28,798 --> 06:14:33,840
DirectX. [music]
7651
06:14:31,280 --> 06:14:36,638
Jensen stands before a dwindling team
7652
06:14:33,840 --> 06:14:39,280
and delivers the most famous mantra in
7653
06:14:36,638 --> 06:14:43,200
Silicon Valley history.
7654
06:14:39,280 --> 06:14:46,798
We have exactly 30 days of oxygen left.
7655
06:14:43,200 --> 06:14:49,120
We are 30 days from bankruptcy.
7656
06:14:46,798 --> 06:14:51,600
How does a man go from cleaning toilets
7657
06:14:49,120 --> 06:14:53,520
in a Kentucky reform school to
7658
06:14:51,600 --> 06:14:56,718
controlling the foundational layer of
7659
06:14:53,520 --> 06:14:59,520
the global AI economy?
7660
06:14:56,718 --> 06:15:02,798
From a red leather booth at a Denny's to
7661
06:14:59,520 --> 06:15:05,120
a legal showdown in the US Supreme Court
7662
06:15:02,798 --> 06:15:06,878
over the very intellectual honesty of
7663
06:15:05,120 --> 06:15:09,520
his empire.
7664
06:15:06,878 --> 06:15:11,120
This is not just a story of silicon and
7665
06:15:09,520 --> 06:15:13,200
software.
7666
06:15:11,120 --> 06:15:15,440
This is the chronicle of the man who
7667
06:15:13,200 --> 06:15:17,040
decided to manufacture intelligence
7668
06:15:15,440 --> 06:15:19,440
itself.
7669
06:15:17,040 --> 06:15:24,080
This is Jensen Hang, [music]
7670
06:15:19,440 --> 06:15:29,320
the architect of the digital brain.
7671
06:15:24,080 --> 06:15:29,320
Chapter one. Forged in the chaos,
7672
06:15:29,520 --> 06:15:35,520
Nvidia was not born from abundance. Its
7673
06:15:32,958 --> 06:15:37,600
DNA was forged in the raw fires of
7674
06:15:35,520 --> 06:15:40,480
survival.
7675
06:15:37,600 --> 06:15:42,878
Jen's son Huang arrived in the United
7676
06:15:40,480 --> 06:15:45,360
States [music] as a young migrant, but
7677
06:15:42,878 --> 06:15:47,680
his destination wasn't an elite prep
7678
06:15:45,360 --> 06:15:50,638
school. Due to a clerical
7679
06:15:47,680 --> 06:15:53,360
misunderstanding by his parents, he was
7680
06:15:50,638 --> 06:15:56,878
sent to Onida Baptist Institute in rural
7681
06:15:53,360 --> 06:15:59,200
Kentucky, a place that at the time
7682
06:15:56,878 --> 06:16:01,280
functioned more as a reform school for
7683
06:15:59,200 --> 06:16:02,798
troubled youths than a traditional
7684
06:16:01,280 --> 06:16:05,920
academy.
7685
06:16:02,798 --> 06:16:08,000
At 9 years old, the future CEO of one of
7686
06:16:05,920 --> 06:16:10,558
the world's most valuable companies
7687
06:16:08,000 --> 06:16:13,920
wasn't coding. He was cleaning the
7688
06:16:10,558 --> 06:16:16,000
toilets of 150 teenagers every single
7689
06:16:13,920 --> 06:16:18,558
afternoon.
7690
06:16:16,000 --> 06:16:20,160
In his personal transcripts, Jensen
7691
06:16:18,558 --> 06:16:23,680
reflects on this with a chilling
7692
06:16:20,160 --> 06:16:26,080
stoicism. I didn't complain. I just
7693
06:16:23,680 --> 06:16:28,000
learned to work hard.
7694
06:16:26,080 --> 06:16:30,718
Bad boy learned the first law of
7695
06:16:28,000 --> 06:16:34,240
accelerated computing decades before it
7696
06:16:30,718 --> 06:16:36,450
existed. For a system to be efficient,
7697
06:16:34,240 --> 06:16:40,080
it must be able to process chaos under
7698
06:16:36,450 --> 06:16:43,120
[music] extreme pressure.
7699
06:16:40,080 --> 06:16:45,520
By 15, Jensen was the most efficient
7700
06:16:43,120 --> 06:16:48,638
dishwasher and waiter at a Denny's in
7701
06:16:45,520 --> 06:16:51,040
Portland. I was incredibly shy, he
7702
06:16:48,638 --> 06:16:54,080
admits. But the chaos of the kitchen
7703
06:16:51,040 --> 06:16:56,558
forced me out of my shell.
7704
06:16:54,080 --> 06:17:00,240
It is no coincidence that Nvidia was
7705
06:16:56,558 --> 06:17:02,878
founded in 1993 inside a booth at that
7706
06:17:00,240 --> 06:17:05,200
very same restaurant chain.
7707
06:17:02,878 --> 06:17:07,890
While the world saw the dawn of the PC
7708
06:17:05,200 --> 06:17:10,240
as an office tool for spreadsheets,
7709
06:17:07,890 --> 06:17:15,520
[music] Jensen, Chris Mahovsky, and
7710
06:17:10,240 --> 06:17:19,760
Curtis Pim saw a fatal weakness.
7711
06:17:15,520 --> 06:17:22,878
In 1993, Intel's generalpurpose CPU was
7712
06:17:19,760 --> 06:17:25,920
hitting a physical wall. If the future
7713
06:17:22,878 --> 06:17:27,920
of computing was visual and immersive,
7714
06:17:25,920 --> 06:17:29,920
the traditional serial architecture
7715
06:17:27,920 --> 06:17:31,680
would become the bottleneck of human
7716
06:17:29,920 --> 06:17:35,120
progress.
7717
06:17:31,680 --> 06:17:38,240
With only $40,000 in startup capital,
7718
06:17:35,120 --> 06:17:40,718
they founded Nvidia to chase a ghost,
7719
06:17:38,240 --> 06:17:42,638
accelerated computing,
7720
06:17:40,718 --> 06:17:45,680
they bet on a market the rest of the
7721
06:17:42,638 --> 06:17:47,520
industry dismissed as a niche for toys,
7722
06:17:45,680 --> 06:17:50,000
video games.
7723
06:17:47,520 --> 06:17:52,878
Before Jensen, video games were the
7724
06:17:50,000 --> 06:17:54,878
ultimate technological flywheel.
7725
06:17:52,878 --> 06:17:57,760
He knew that if you could master the
7726
06:17:54,878 --> 06:17:59,920
massive realtime rendering of pixels,
7727
06:17:57,760 --> 06:18:02,080
you could eventually simulate reality
7728
06:17:59,920 --> 06:18:04,558
itself.
7729
06:18:02,080 --> 06:18:06,798
But before they could reach that glory,
7730
06:18:04,558 --> 06:18:11,480
they had to survive their first massive
7731
06:18:06,798 --> 06:18:11,480
technical abyss, the NV1.
7732
06:18:18,718 --> 06:18:25,360
By 1995, Nvidia's first massive bet,
7733
06:18:22,560 --> 06:18:28,160
[music] the NV1 chip, was ready to
7734
06:18:25,360 --> 06:18:31,600
conquer the market. But Jensen Hang had
7735
06:18:28,160 --> 06:18:33,200
made a catastrophic technical gamble.
7736
06:18:31,600 --> 06:18:36,480
At a time when the industry was
7737
06:18:33,200 --> 06:18:38,878
undecided, he bet on quadratic texture
7738
06:18:36,480 --> 06:18:42,160
mapping, a method that used curved
7739
06:18:38,878 --> 06:18:44,638
surfaces to create 3D images.
7740
06:18:42,160 --> 06:18:48,080
It was mathematically intelligent, but
7741
06:18:44,638 --> 06:18:50,080
it was a lonely path. The industry
7742
06:18:48,080 --> 06:18:51,440
hammer dropped when Microsoft released
7743
06:18:50,080 --> 06:18:54,798
its first DirectX [music]
7744
06:18:51,440 --> 06:18:57,600
API. Microsoft chose triangles, not
7745
06:18:54,798 --> 06:18:59,200
quads, as the universal language for PC
7746
06:18:57,600 --> 06:19:01,040
gaming.
7747
06:18:59,200 --> 06:19:04,558
This decision rendered Nvidia's
7748
06:19:01,040 --> 06:19:07,760
technology instantly obsolete.
7749
06:19:04,558 --> 06:19:11,520
The NV1 wasn't just a failure, it was a
7750
06:19:07,760 --> 06:19:14,320
dead end. The company was bleeding cash.
7751
06:19:11,520 --> 06:19:19,638
And as Jensen famously put it, they were
7752
06:19:14,320 --> 06:19:19,638
staring at exactly 30 days of oxygen.
7753
06:19:20,160 --> 06:19:25,360
Nvidia's only lifeline was a strategic
7754
06:19:22,798 --> 06:19:27,200
contract with the Japanese giant Sega to
7755
06:19:25,360 --> 06:19:30,080
build the graphics engine for the Sega
7756
06:19:27,200 --> 06:19:32,958
Saturn. But Jensen was trapped in a
7757
06:19:30,080 --> 06:19:35,120
moral and business dilemma.
7758
06:19:32,958 --> 06:19:37,760
He knew that if they continued building
7759
06:19:35,120 --> 06:19:39,680
the chip for Sega using Nvidia's flawed
7760
06:19:37,760 --> 06:19:41,600
quad technology,
7761
06:19:39,680 --> 06:19:44,320
Sega would lose the console war to
7762
06:19:41,600 --> 06:19:47,600
Sony's PlayStation and Nvidia would
7763
06:19:44,320 --> 06:19:50,320
eventually perish anyway. In an act of
7764
06:19:47,600 --> 06:19:53,280
intellectual honesty, or as many at the
7765
06:19:50,320 --> 06:19:56,718
time called corporate suicide, Jensen
7766
06:19:53,280 --> 06:20:00,480
flew to Japan. He sat across from Shy
7767
06:19:56,718 --> 06:20:03,840
Chiro Inimiri, the CEO of Sega, and told
7768
06:20:00,480 --> 06:20:06,480
him the brutal truth. Our technology is
7769
06:20:03,840 --> 06:20:08,958
on the wrong path. If we finish this
7770
06:20:06,480 --> 06:20:11,040
project, you will produce an inferior
7771
06:20:08,958 --> 06:20:13,920
product.
7772
06:20:11,040 --> 06:20:16,320
Jensen asked for the impossible. He
7773
06:20:13,920 --> 06:20:18,798
asked Sega to terminate the contract,
7774
06:20:16,320 --> 06:20:21,760
but to pay the remaining $5 million
7775
06:20:18,798 --> 06:20:24,240
anyway. If you don't pay us, Jensen
7776
06:20:21,760 --> 06:20:26,160
pleaded. Nvidia will cease to exist
7777
06:20:24,240 --> 06:20:28,558
tomorrow.
7778
06:20:26,160 --> 06:20:32,080
To the astonishment of the tech world,
7779
06:20:28,558 --> 06:20:34,718
Idlimiri son agreed. He didn't pay for a
7780
06:20:32,080 --> 06:20:37,040
working chip. He paid for Jensen's
7781
06:20:34,718 --> 06:20:40,000
integrity.
7782
06:20:37,040 --> 06:20:42,480
That $5 million was the most expensive
7783
06:20:40,000 --> 06:20:45,360
oxygen in history.
7784
06:20:42,480 --> 06:20:47,680
To make it last, Jensen had to fire half
7785
06:20:45,360 --> 06:20:49,600
of his workforce. These weren't just
7786
06:20:47,680 --> 06:20:52,400
employees. They were friends who had
7787
06:20:49,600 --> 06:20:54,400
shared the Denny's dream. This trauma
7788
06:20:52,400 --> 06:20:57,680
institutionalized a permanent state of
7789
06:20:54,400 --> 06:21:00,480
emergency at Nvidia.
7790
06:20:57,680 --> 06:21:04,160
With the remaining team, Jensen funneled
7791
06:21:00,480 --> 06:21:06,558
every scent [music] into the Reva 128.
7792
06:21:04,160 --> 06:21:09,360
They abandoned quads and embraced
7793
06:21:06,558 --> 06:21:13,840
Microsoft's triangles with a vengeance.
7794
06:21:09,360 --> 06:21:16,878
When it launched in 1997, the Revo 128
7795
06:21:13,840 --> 06:21:18,558
was 400% faster than anything else on
7796
06:21:16,878 --> 06:21:21,760
the market.
7797
06:21:18,558 --> 06:21:23,360
It was a dive catch of epic proportions.
7798
06:21:21,760 --> 06:21:27,680
Nvidia was no longer just a [music]
7799
06:21:23,360 --> 06:21:30,558
survivor. It had become a hunter.
7800
06:21:27,680 --> 06:21:33,920
But as Jensen looked at the horizon, he
7801
06:21:30,558 --> 06:21:38,200
saw 70 rivals waiting to kill him. The
7802
06:21:33,920 --> 06:21:38,200
war was only beginning.
7803
06:21:43,280 --> 06:21:49,200
The success of the Reval 128 was a dive
7804
06:21:46,638 --> 06:21:53,280
catch, but it placed Nvidia in the
7805
06:21:49,200 --> 06:21:55,520
middle of a slaughter house. By 1997,
7806
06:21:53,280 --> 06:21:58,958
there were over 70 companies fighting
7807
06:21:55,520 --> 06:22:00,958
for the soul of the 3D graphics market.
7808
06:21:58,958 --> 06:22:04,160
It was a commodity war where price
7809
06:22:00,958 --> 06:22:06,400
cutting was the only weapon for most.
7810
06:22:04,160 --> 06:22:08,638
Jensen Hang realized that if Nvidia
7811
06:22:06,400 --> 06:22:12,240
played by the industry's rules, they
7812
06:22:08,638 --> 06:22:15,600
would eventually be ground into dust.
7813
06:22:12,240 --> 06:22:17,520
He decided to break the laws of time.
7814
06:22:15,600 --> 06:22:20,878
The industry standard for developing a
7815
06:22:17,520 --> 06:22:24,080
new chip was 18 to 24 months. Following
7816
06:22:20,878 --> 06:22:26,400
the steady beat of Moore's law, Jensen
7817
06:22:24,080 --> 06:22:29,440
gathered his engineers and imposed a
7818
06:22:26,400 --> 06:22:32,080
suicidal mandate. Nvidia would release a
7819
06:22:29,440 --> 06:22:35,840
brand new groundbreaking architecture
7820
06:22:32,080 --> 06:22:37,840
every 6 months.
7821
06:22:35,840 --> 06:22:39,360
It was a strategy of relentless
7822
06:22:37,840 --> 06:22:42,798
execution.
7823
06:22:39,360 --> 06:22:46,000
By the time a competitor like 3dfx or S3
7824
06:22:42,798 --> 06:22:49,040
could react to one Nvidia chip, Jensen
7825
06:22:46,000 --> 06:22:51,200
had already launched two more. This
7826
06:22:49,040 --> 06:22:53,440
forced the competition into a permanent
7827
06:22:51,200 --> 06:22:56,400
state of obsolescence.
7828
06:22:53,440 --> 06:22:58,798
To achieve this, Nvidia had to reinvent
7829
06:22:56,400 --> 06:23:01,360
its internal engineering, running
7830
06:22:58,798 --> 06:23:03,440
multiple design teams in parallel, a
7831
06:23:01,360 --> 06:23:05,360
massive financial risk that pushed the
7832
06:23:03,440 --> 06:23:09,920
company to the edge of its operational
7833
06:23:05,360 --> 06:23:16,000
capacity. In 1999, the war reached its
7834
06:23:09,920 --> 06:23:17,920
climax. Nvidia released the GeForce 256.
7835
06:23:16,000 --> 06:23:20,638
Jensen didn't [music] just market it as
7836
06:23:17,920 --> 06:23:23,520
a faster card. He coined a term that
7837
06:23:20,638 --> 06:23:27,440
would redefine computing history, the
7838
06:23:23,520 --> 06:23:29,440
GPU, graphics processing unit. This
7839
06:23:27,440 --> 06:23:32,558
wasn't just branding. [music]
7840
06:23:29,440 --> 06:23:34,480
Technically, the GeForce 256
7841
06:23:32,558 --> 06:23:36,480
moved the transform and lighting
7842
06:23:34,480 --> 06:23:39,840
calculations, the most heavy
7843
06:23:36,480 --> 06:23:42,718
mathematical lifting of 3D off the CPU
7844
06:23:39,840 --> 06:23:45,200
and onto the chip itself. It was the
7845
06:23:42,718 --> 06:23:47,680
birth of a new era.
7846
06:23:45,200 --> 06:23:49,680
This performance leap was so massive
7847
06:23:47,680 --> 06:23:51,680
that Nvidia secured the prestigious
7848
06:23:49,680 --> 06:23:55,520
contract for the original Microsoft
7849
06:23:51,680 --> 06:23:58,000
Xbox, receiving a crucial $200 million
7850
06:23:55,520 --> 06:24:01,120
advance.
7851
06:23:58,000 --> 06:24:03,600
The 6-month cycle worked. By the early
7852
06:24:01,120 --> 06:24:06,400
2000s, [music] the 70 competitors had
7853
06:24:03,600 --> 06:24:08,080
been reduced to just two, Nvidia and
7854
06:24:06,400 --> 06:24:10,958
ATI.
7855
06:24:08,080 --> 06:24:13,280
In a final act of dominance, Nvidia
7856
06:24:10,958 --> 06:24:17,840
acquired the assets of its former idol
7857
06:24:13,280 --> 06:24:21,040
and arch rival 3dfx in 2000.
7858
06:24:17,840 --> 06:24:24,558
Jensen had cleared the board. He was the
7859
06:24:21,040 --> 06:24:27,200
undisputed king of gaming. But at the
7860
06:24:24,558 --> 06:24:28,958
very moment of his greatest triumph, he
7861
06:24:27,200 --> 06:24:31,680
began to look at the higherformance
7862
06:24:28,958 --> 06:24:34,080
computing market. He realized that the
7863
06:24:31,680 --> 06:24:37,040
GPU's massive parallel math could do
7864
06:24:34,080 --> 06:24:40,080
more than just draw pixels. It could
7865
06:24:37,040 --> 06:24:43,600
solve the world's most complex problems.
7866
06:24:40,080 --> 06:24:47,878
The seeds of CUDA and the $10 billion
7867
06:24:43,600 --> 06:24:47,878
gamble were being planted.
7868
06:24:53,200 --> 06:25:00,000
By 2006, Nvidia was the undisputed king
7869
06:24:56,878 --> 06:25:02,116
of the gaming world. But Jensen Huang
7870
06:25:00,000 --> 06:25:04,000
was restless. He realized that the
7871
06:25:02,116 --> 06:25:05,920
[music] same parallel processing power
7872
06:25:04,000 --> 06:25:08,010
that rendered pixels for World of
7873
06:25:05,920 --> 06:25:09,280
Warcraft could be used to solve the
7874
06:25:08,010 --> 06:25:11,760
[music] world's most complex
7875
06:25:09,280 --> 06:25:14,400
mathematical problems.
7876
06:25:11,760 --> 06:25:17,440
He launched [music] CUDA, compute
7877
06:25:14,400 --> 06:25:19,040
unified device architecture. It was a
7878
06:25:17,440 --> 06:25:21,600
declaration [music] of war against the
7879
06:25:19,040 --> 06:25:24,480
CPUcentric world.
7880
06:25:21,600 --> 06:25:27,040
The goal was simple yet insane.
7881
06:25:24,480 --> 06:25:30,160
Transform [music] every NVIDIA GPU into
7882
06:25:27,040 --> 06:25:31,680
a generalpurpose supercomput.
7883
06:25:30,160 --> 06:25:35,200
But this decision [music] came with a
7884
06:25:31,680 --> 06:25:38,240
staggering cost. Jensen mandated that
7885
06:25:35,200 --> 06:25:40,558
every single GPU Nvidia manufactured
7886
06:25:38,240 --> 06:25:42,718
from the high-end workstation cards to
7887
06:25:40,558 --> 06:25:44,798
the cheapest laptop [music] chips must
7888
06:25:42,718 --> 06:25:48,240
include the extra transistors and
7889
06:25:44,798 --> 06:25:51,840
hardware logic to support CUDA.
7890
06:25:48,240 --> 06:25:54,000
Wall Street was [music] horrified.
7891
06:25:51,840 --> 06:25:57,120
For nearly a decade, Nvidia [music]
7892
06:25:54,000 --> 06:26:00,400
spent billions, estimated at over 10
7893
06:25:57,120 --> 06:26:02,376
billion dollars in cumulative R&D on a
7894
06:26:00,400 --> 06:26:05,360
software platform that almost no one was
7895
06:26:02,376 --> 06:26:07,440
[music] using. Profit margins, which
7896
06:26:05,360 --> 06:26:10,958
once sat comfortably high, were
7897
06:26:07,440 --> 06:26:13,280
sacrificed at the altar of this vision.
7898
06:26:10,958 --> 06:26:16,480
Analysts mocked the [music] strategy,
7899
06:26:13,280 --> 06:26:19,600
calling it the bridge to nowhere. During
7900
06:26:16,480 --> 06:26:21,440
the 2008 financial crisis, Nvidia's
7901
06:26:19,600 --> 06:26:23,760
market cap plummeted [music] and the
7902
06:26:21,440 --> 06:26:26,000
company was once again staring into the
7903
06:26:23,760 --> 06:26:27,680
abyss.
7904
06:26:26,000 --> 06:26:30,000
But Jensen wasn't just building
7905
06:26:27,680 --> 06:26:33,360
hardware. He was building [music] a
7906
06:26:30,000 --> 06:26:35,760
software moat. He sent Nvidia engineers
7907
06:26:33,360 --> 06:26:37,120
to universities around the world,
7908
06:26:35,760 --> 06:26:40,400
helping [music] professors teach
7909
06:26:37,120 --> 06:26:42,958
parallel programming using CUDA.
7910
06:26:40,400 --> 06:26:45,200
He was seeding the ground. While
7911
06:26:42,958 --> 06:26:48,400
competitors like [music] Intel and AMD
7912
06:26:45,200 --> 06:26:51,120
focused on making faster chips, Jensen
7913
06:26:48,400 --> 06:26:53,520
was building [music] an entire language.
7914
06:26:51,120 --> 06:26:56,000
By the time a developer learned CUDA,
7915
06:26:53,520 --> 06:26:58,080
they were locked in. Switching to a
7916
06:26:56,000 --> 06:27:00,478
competitor wouldn't just mean buying a
7917
06:26:58,080 --> 06:27:03,920
new chip. It would mean rewriting
7918
06:27:00,478 --> 06:27:07,040
millions of lines of code.
7919
06:27:03,920 --> 06:27:09,680
Year after year, Jensen defended CUDA in
7920
06:27:07,040 --> 06:27:11,760
boardrooms and earning calls. He
7921
06:27:09,680 --> 06:27:13,760
practiced what he calls long-term
7922
06:27:11,760 --> 06:27:16,798
commitment to [music] a vision, even
7923
06:27:13,760 --> 06:27:18,558
when the data didn't yet support it. He
7924
06:27:16,798 --> 06:27:20,798
was waiting for a killer app for
7925
06:27:18,558 --> 06:27:23,200
accelerated computing.
7926
06:27:20,798 --> 06:27:24,478
He didn't know what it would be. But he
7927
06:27:23,200 --> 06:27:27,120
knew that as data grew [music]
7928
06:27:24,478 --> 06:27:30,160
exponentially, the serial processing of
7929
06:27:27,120 --> 06:27:32,558
the CPU would eventually fail.
7930
06:27:30,160 --> 06:27:34,400
The silence of the Cuda winter was about
7931
06:27:32,558 --> 06:27:36,042
to be broken.
7932
06:27:34,400 --> 06:27:37,120
In a lab at the University of Toronto,
7933
06:27:36,042 --> 06:27:40,320
[music]
7934
06:27:37,120 --> 06:27:42,320
a PhD student named Alex Kreski was
7935
06:27:40,320 --> 06:27:46,080
about to feed a neural network called
7936
06:27:42,320 --> 06:27:48,478
Alexet into those Nvidia GPUs.
7937
06:27:46,080 --> 06:27:51,600
The big bang of artificial intelligence
7938
06:27:48,478 --> 06:27:54,000
was seconds away, and Jensen Huang was
7939
06:27:51,600 --> 06:27:58,440
the only person on Earth who had already
7940
06:27:54,000 --> 06:27:58,440
built the engine to [music] power it.
7941
06:28:03,920 --> 06:28:09,680
The year was 2012. While the world saw
7942
06:28:07,280 --> 06:28:11,920
just another academic competition,
7943
06:28:09,680 --> 06:28:14,558
Jensen Hang saw the spark that would
7944
06:28:11,920 --> 06:28:17,840
ignite a global revolution.
7945
06:28:14,558 --> 06:28:21,200
A neural network called AlexNet, powered
7946
06:28:17,840 --> 06:28:24,478
by NVIDIA GPUs, crushed the competition
7947
06:28:21,200 --> 06:28:27,040
in image recognition. It was the big
7948
06:28:24,478 --> 06:28:29,280
bang of deep learning.
7949
06:28:27,040 --> 06:28:32,558
Jinsen didn't just [music] celebrate, he
7950
06:28:29,280 --> 06:28:35,680
pivoted the entire company. He realized
7951
06:28:32,558 --> 06:28:37,520
that the $10 billion gamble on CUDA had
7952
06:28:35,680 --> 06:28:40,320
finally found [music] its soul,
7953
06:28:37,520 --> 06:28:42,240
artificial intelligence.
7954
06:28:40,320 --> 06:28:44,878
This pivot transformed [music] Nvidia
7955
06:28:42,240 --> 06:28:46,958
from a graphics card company into the
7956
06:28:44,878 --> 06:28:50,000
foundational engine of the world's most
7957
06:28:46,958 --> 06:28:51,840
powerful data centers.
7958
06:28:50,000 --> 06:28:53,280
Jensen's vision was no longer about
7959
06:28:51,840 --> 06:28:56,478
drawing pixels. [music]
7960
06:28:53,280 --> 06:28:58,878
It was about generative AI.
7961
06:28:56,478 --> 06:29:00,798
By the time Chat [music] GPT launched in
7962
06:28:58,878 --> 06:29:02,504
late 2022,
7963
06:29:00,798 --> 06:29:03,520
Nvidia didn't just have a head start.
7964
06:29:02,504 --> 06:29:05,280
[music]
7965
06:29:03,520 --> 06:29:08,280
They were the only ones at the starting
7966
06:29:05,280 --> 06:29:08,280
line.
7967
06:29:08,320 --> 06:29:12,400
Jensen [music] acted with a speed that
7968
06:29:10,000 --> 06:29:15,040
terrified his competitors. He didn't
7969
06:29:12,400 --> 06:29:17,840
just wait for orders. He re-engineered
7970
06:29:15,040 --> 06:29:20,798
Nvidia's entire road map.
7971
06:29:17,840 --> 06:29:23,520
In 2016, he personally delivered the
7972
06:29:20,798 --> 06:29:26,320
first [music] Nvidia DGX1,
7973
06:29:23,520 --> 06:29:29,120
the world's first AI supercomput in a
7974
06:29:26,320 --> 06:29:32,400
box to a then small nonprofit called
7975
06:29:29,120 --> 06:29:36,760
Open AAI. He was very [music] clear,
7976
06:29:32,400 --> 06:29:36,760
this will change the world.
7977
06:29:37,440 --> 06:29:40,798
Technically, this period was about
7978
06:29:39,280 --> 06:29:43,200
specialization. [music]
7979
06:29:40,798 --> 06:29:45,078
Nvidia began adding tensor cores to its
7980
06:29:43,200 --> 06:29:45,760
chips. These weren't for graphics.
7981
06:29:45,078 --> 06:29:47,440
[music]
7982
06:29:45,760 --> 06:29:49,600
They were designed specifically for the
7983
06:29:47,440 --> 06:29:51,360
deep learning math that powers neural
7984
06:29:49,600 --> 06:29:53,280
networks. [music]
7985
06:29:51,360 --> 06:29:55,840
Nvidia was no longer just making a
7986
06:29:53,280 --> 06:29:58,000
faster graphics card. It was building a
7987
06:29:55,840 --> 06:30:00,400
specialized brain.
7988
06:29:58,000 --> 06:30:02,000
By 2017, the momentum [music] was
7989
06:30:00,400 --> 06:30:04,320
unstoppable.
7990
06:30:02,000 --> 06:30:06,478
Every major tech giant was building AI
7991
06:30:04,320 --> 06:30:07,280
labs and they all had one thing in
7992
06:30:06,478 --> 06:30:10,478
common. [music]
7993
06:30:07,280 --> 06:30:12,638
They were built on Nvidia's stack.
7994
06:30:10,478 --> 06:30:15,280
This was the era when the software mode
7995
06:30:12,638 --> 06:30:16,718
became a fortress. Thousands of
7996
06:30:15,280 --> 06:30:20,000
researchers were now writing their
7997
06:30:16,718 --> 06:30:21,920
doctoral thesis on [music] CUDA.
7998
06:30:20,000 --> 06:30:23,760
If a competitor wanted to challenge
7999
06:30:21,920 --> 06:30:26,240
Nvidia, they wouldn't just need [music]
8000
06:30:23,760 --> 06:30:28,878
a better chip. They would have to
8001
06:30:26,240 --> 06:30:30,320
convince the world's brightest minds to
8002
06:30:28,878 --> 06:30:32,320
forget everything [music] they had
8003
06:30:30,320 --> 06:30:35,040
learned.
8004
06:30:32,320 --> 06:30:38,240
But as the AI revolution took hold, an
8005
06:30:35,040 --> 06:30:40,718
unexpected shadow emerged. A new craze
8006
06:30:38,240 --> 06:30:43,360
called Bitcoin and Ethereum began to
8007
06:30:40,718 --> 06:30:45,994
consume [music] Nvidia's supply.
8008
06:30:43,360 --> 06:30:49,600
To the world, Nvidia looked invincible,
8009
06:30:45,994 --> 06:30:51,760
[music] but internally Jensen was wary.
8010
06:30:49,600 --> 06:30:53,280
Jensen knew that every bubble eventually
8011
06:30:51,760 --> 06:30:55,680
bursts.
8012
06:30:53,280 --> 06:30:58,000
This period of explosive accidental
8013
06:30:55,680 --> 06:31:01,120
growth from crypto miners was creating a
8014
06:30:58,000 --> 06:31:02,320
shadow over the company's true mission,
8015
06:31:01,120 --> 06:31:04,718
setting the stage [music] for a
8016
06:31:02,320 --> 06:31:07,200
highstakes legal battle over corporate
8017
06:31:04,718 --> 06:31:09,120
transparency and a financial storm that
8018
06:31:07,200 --> 06:31:12,120
would test the very foundations of his
8019
06:31:09,120 --> 06:31:12,120
leadership.
8020
06:31:15,840 --> 06:31:20,878
In 2018, Nvidia was [music] riding a
8021
06:31:18,798 --> 06:31:24,080
wave that looked like a miracle, but
8022
06:31:20,878 --> 06:31:26,080
felt like a mirage. The explosion of
8023
06:31:24,080 --> 06:31:29,680
cryptocurrency mining had created an
8024
06:31:26,080 --> 06:31:32,320
insatiable hunger for GeForce cards.
8025
06:31:29,680 --> 06:31:35,122
To the outside world, Nvidia's revenue
8026
06:31:32,320 --> 06:31:37,520
was reaching historic heights. However,
8027
06:31:35,122 --> 06:31:40,400
[music] beneath the surface, a dangerous
8028
06:31:37,520 --> 06:31:42,400
ambiguity was growing. Jensen Huang
8029
06:31:40,400 --> 06:31:45,120
insisted that the growth was driven by a
8030
06:31:42,400 --> 06:31:48,220
gaming renaissance, but the reality was
8031
06:31:45,120 --> 06:31:48,798
more volatile. The mirage evaporated
8032
06:31:48,220 --> 06:31:51,120
[music]
8033
06:31:48,798 --> 06:31:53,460
in late 2018.
8034
06:31:51,120 --> 06:31:55,520
The crypto winter arrived and the
8035
06:31:53,460 --> 06:31:57,440
[music] demand for mining chips vanished
8036
06:31:55,520 --> 06:31:59,356
overnight.
8037
06:31:57,440 --> 06:32:01,200
Nvidia was left with a massive surplus
8038
06:31:59,356 --> 06:32:03,920
[music] of inventory and the market's
8039
06:32:01,200 --> 06:32:06,478
reaction was brutal. The company's stock
8040
06:32:03,920 --> 06:32:08,558
price [music] plummeted by 28% in a
8041
06:32:06,478 --> 06:32:11,120
single day.
8042
06:32:08,558 --> 06:32:15,120
The invincible architect of AI was
8043
06:32:11,120 --> 06:32:16,878
suddenly facing a crisis of credibility.
8044
06:32:15,120 --> 06:32:18,638
This financial collapse ignited a
8045
06:32:16,878 --> 06:32:20,478
highstakes legal battle that would
8046
06:32:18,638 --> 06:32:22,478
eventually reach the steps of the US
8047
06:32:20,478 --> 06:32:24,798
Supreme Court.
8048
06:32:22,478 --> 06:32:27,280
A group of institutional investors filed
8049
06:32:24,798 --> 06:32:29,040
a class action lawsuit alleging that
8050
06:32:27,280 --> 06:32:31,840
Jensen [music] Hang had deliberately
8051
06:32:29,040 --> 06:32:34,070
misled the market. The core of the case
8052
06:32:31,840 --> 06:32:35,440
rested on a single devastating word,
8053
06:32:34,070 --> 06:32:36,958
[music]
8054
06:32:35,440 --> 06:32:39,360
ci
8055
06:32:36,958 --> 06:32:41,360
intent to deceive.
8056
06:32:39,360 --> 06:32:43,360
The accusation [music] was sharp.
8057
06:32:41,360 --> 06:32:45,600
Investors claimed that internal Nvidia
8058
06:32:43,360 --> 06:32:47,360
reports clearly showed over a billion
8059
06:32:45,600 --> 06:32:49,840
dollars in revenue attributed to [music]
8060
06:32:47,360 --> 06:32:51,360
gamers was actually coming from crypto
8061
06:32:49,840 --> 06:32:53,600
miners.
8062
06:32:51,360 --> 06:32:55,840
Jensen fought back, defending his
8063
06:32:53,600 --> 06:32:57,920
intellectual honesty and arguing that
8064
06:32:55,840 --> 06:32:58,878
the expert opinions used against him
8065
06:32:57,920 --> 06:33:00,958
were nothing [music] more than
8066
06:32:58,878 --> 06:33:03,360
speculation.
8067
06:33:00,958 --> 06:33:05,512
This battle known as petition number
8068
06:33:03,360 --> 06:33:07,280
23-970
8069
06:33:05,512 --> 06:33:09,840
[music] became a landmark moment for
8070
06:33:07,280 --> 06:33:12,478
Silicon Valley, questioning how much a
8071
06:33:09,840 --> 06:33:14,400
CEO must disclose when their technology
8072
06:33:12,478 --> 06:33:17,520
accidentally conquers a market they
8073
06:33:14,400 --> 06:33:19,920
didn't intend to lead.
8074
06:33:17,520 --> 06:33:21,760
While lawyers argued in Washington,
8075
06:33:19,920 --> 06:33:24,558
Jensen was already looking past the
8076
06:33:21,760 --> 06:33:26,240
wreckage. He didn't let the legal storm
8077
06:33:24,558 --> 06:33:29,200
or the inventory crisis [music] slowed
8078
06:33:26,240 --> 06:33:31,680
down his ultimate plan. He doubled down
8079
06:33:29,200 --> 06:33:34,320
on the data center, acquiring Melanox
8080
06:33:31,680 --> 06:33:36,478
for $7 billion to control the highways
8081
06:33:34,320 --> 06:33:38,478
between his chips. [music]
8082
06:33:36,478 --> 06:33:41,040
He was preparing for a world where AI
8083
06:33:38,478 --> 06:33:42,558
wouldn't just be a research project, but
8084
06:33:41,040 --> 06:33:44,718
the operating system of [music] the
8085
06:33:42,558 --> 06:33:47,432
entire planet.
8086
06:33:44,718 --> 06:33:49,440
The storm of 2018 had been a warning.
8087
06:33:47,432 --> 06:33:53,638
[music] The era of generative AI was
8088
06:33:49,440 --> 06:33:53,638
about to provide the answer.
8089
06:33:57,440 --> 06:34:02,240
By 2022,
8090
06:33:59,360 --> 06:34:04,478
the world had changed. The launch of
8091
06:34:02,240 --> 06:34:06,958
Chad GPT signaled the arrival of the
8092
06:34:04,478 --> 06:34:09,040
generative AI [music] era, and Nvidia
8093
06:34:06,958 --> 06:34:10,638
was the only company prepared to power
8094
06:34:09,040 --> 06:34:12,558
it.
8095
06:34:10,638 --> 06:34:15,360
But as Jensen Huang [music] stood on the
8096
06:34:12,558 --> 06:34:18,718
brink of total market dominance, a new
8097
06:34:15,360 --> 06:34:21,492
wall was built, not by a competitor, but
8098
06:34:18,718 --> 06:34:23,280
by the US government. Washington imposed
8099
06:34:21,492 --> 06:34:26,558
[music] strict export controls on
8100
06:34:23,280 --> 06:34:29,600
high-end AI chips. For Nvidia, the
8101
06:34:26,558 --> 06:34:31,440
stakes were astronomical.
8102
06:34:29,600 --> 06:34:33,938
According to the geographical revenue
8103
06:34:31,440 --> 06:34:37,360
data, China accounted for approximately
8104
06:34:33,938 --> 06:34:39,520
[music] 20% to 25% of the company's
8105
06:34:37,360 --> 06:34:41,360
total business.
8106
06:34:39,520 --> 06:34:43,760
Overnight, [music] Jensen had to
8107
06:34:41,360 --> 06:34:46,000
navigate a geopolitical minefield,
8108
06:34:43,760 --> 06:34:48,080
redesigning chips specifically to comply
8109
06:34:46,000 --> 06:34:50,240
with regulations while trying to keep
8110
06:34:48,080 --> 06:34:52,478
his most important market from slipping
8111
06:34:50,240 --> 06:34:54,718
away.
8112
06:34:52,478 --> 06:34:56,718
Jensen's answer to the geopolitical and
8113
06:34:54,718 --> 06:35:00,638
technical pressure was the Blackwall
8114
06:34:56,718 --> 06:35:03,760
architecture. If the H100 was a spark,
8115
06:35:00,638 --> 06:35:07,200
Blackwell was a sun. Packing an
8116
06:35:03,760 --> 06:35:09,120
incredible 208 billion transistors, it
8117
06:35:07,200 --> 06:35:12,958
delivered up to 30 times the performance
8118
06:35:09,120 --> 06:35:14,798
of its predecessor for certain AI tasks.
8119
06:35:12,958 --> 06:35:17,600
But Blackwell represented a deeper
8120
06:35:14,798 --> 06:35:20,558
strategic shift. Nvidia was no longer
8121
06:35:17,600 --> 06:35:23,440
just a chipmaker.
8122
06:35:20,558 --> 06:35:25,040
Jensen was now building entire AI
8123
06:35:23,440 --> 06:35:27,200
factories. [music]
8124
06:35:25,040 --> 06:35:29,600
By integrating Melanox's networking
8125
06:35:27,200 --> 06:35:31,600
technology, he controlled the highways
8126
06:35:29,600 --> 06:35:33,600
that allowed thousands of chips to talk
8127
06:35:31,600 --> 06:35:36,160
to each other as if they were a single
8128
06:35:33,600 --> 06:35:38,478
giant brain.
8129
06:35:36,160 --> 06:35:40,400
This system on a cluster approach meant
8130
06:35:38,478 --> 06:35:42,798
that even if a competitor produced a
8131
06:35:40,400 --> 06:35:44,478
faster individual chip, they couldn't
8132
06:35:42,798 --> 06:35:47,520
compete with the sheer efficiency of the
8133
06:35:44,478 --> 06:35:50,160
Nvidia ecosystem.
8134
06:35:47,520 --> 06:35:53,360
The financial results were staggering.
8135
06:35:50,160 --> 06:35:57,680
By early 2024, Nvidia's data center
8136
06:35:53,360 --> 06:35:59,200
revenue had surged to over 47 billion, a
8137
06:35:57,680 --> 06:36:02,000
217%
8138
06:35:59,200 --> 06:36:04,878
increase in [music] a single year. The
8139
06:36:02,000 --> 06:36:07,120
company was operating with 78.4%
8140
06:36:04,878 --> 06:36:09,600
gross [music] margins, profit levels
8141
06:36:07,120 --> 06:36:12,400
usually reserved for software giants,
8142
06:36:09,600 --> 06:36:16,160
not hardware manufacturers.
8143
06:36:12,400 --> 06:36:19,440
On June 18th, 2024, Nvidia became the
8144
06:36:16,160 --> 06:36:22,320
most valuable company on the planet.
8145
06:36:19,440 --> 06:36:25,520
Yet, even as he stood at the summit,
8146
06:36:22,320 --> 06:36:28,320
Jensen refused to relax. He looked the
8147
06:36:25,520 --> 06:36:31,040
60-year history of semiconductors, the
8148
06:36:28,320 --> 06:36:33,680
rise and fall of Intel, the cycles of
8149
06:36:31,040 --> 06:36:35,840
Samsung and TI, and he knew that being
8150
06:36:33,680 --> 06:36:39,280
on top was the most dangerous place to
8151
06:36:35,840 --> 06:36:42,558
be. His next challenge wouldn't just be
8152
06:36:39,280 --> 06:36:46,280
about chips. It would be about giving AI
8153
06:36:42,558 --> 06:36:46,280
a physical body.
8154
06:36:50,000 --> 06:36:55,200
In 2024, Jensen Huang had already
8155
06:36:52,958 --> 06:36:57,520
conquered the digital world, but his
8156
06:36:55,200 --> 06:37:00,240
eyes were fixed on a new frontier, the
8157
06:36:57,520 --> 06:37:03,120
physical one. He declared that the next
8158
06:37:00,240 --> 06:37:04,878
wave of AI would be physical AI.
8159
06:37:03,120 --> 06:37:07,920
Intelligence that doesn't just process
8160
06:37:04,878 --> 06:37:09,840
text or images, but understands the laws
8161
06:37:07,920 --> 06:37:12,080
of physics.
8162
06:37:09,840 --> 06:37:15,120
Everything that moves from autonomous
8163
06:37:12,080 --> 06:37:18,240
cars to humanoid robots would eventually
8164
06:37:15,120 --> 06:37:20,638
be powered by an Nvidia brain.
8165
06:37:18,240 --> 06:37:23,584
This identifies it as the third pillar
8166
06:37:20,638 --> 06:37:24,320
of Nvidia's future. To win this race,
8167
06:37:23,584 --> 06:37:27,360
[music]
8168
06:37:24,320 --> 06:37:29,440
Jensen isn't just building chips. He is
8169
06:37:27,360 --> 06:37:31,600
building the omniverse.
8170
06:37:29,440 --> 06:37:33,410
This is a digital world where robots are
8171
06:37:31,600 --> 06:37:36,080
trained millions of times in a virtual
8172
06:37:33,410 --> 06:37:38,718
[music] simulation before they ever step
8173
06:37:36,080 --> 06:37:41,520
into a real factory.
8174
06:37:38,718 --> 06:37:42,958
By the time a robot starts its job, it
8175
06:37:41,520 --> 06:37:45,680
has already [music] lived a thousand
8176
06:37:42,958 --> 06:37:47,680
lifetimes of experience. Jensen's
8177
06:37:45,680 --> 06:37:50,478
strategy is a total vertical
8178
06:37:47,680 --> 06:37:53,680
integration. He is transforming Nvidia
8179
06:37:50,478 --> 06:37:55,840
into a provider of AI factories. [music]
8180
06:37:53,680 --> 06:37:58,320
He believes that in the future, every
8181
06:37:55,840 --> 06:38:00,558
company will have two factories, one
8182
06:37:58,320 --> 06:38:03,680
that produces physical goods and a
8183
06:38:00,558 --> 06:38:05,760
digital one that produces intelligence.
8184
06:38:03,680 --> 06:38:07,840
With the Melanox networking, high-speed
8185
06:38:05,760 --> 06:38:10,320
highways, [music] and the CUDA software
8186
06:38:07,840 --> 06:38:12,160
fortress, Jensen has ensured that the
8187
06:38:10,320 --> 06:38:14,400
entire infrastructure of this new
8188
06:38:12,160 --> 06:38:17,760
industrial revolution [music] runs on
8189
06:38:14,400 --> 06:38:20,080
Nvidia. When asked about his legacy,
8190
06:38:17,760 --> 06:38:23,200
Jensen doesn't talk about stock prices
8191
06:38:20,080 --> 06:38:25,520
or trillions of dollars. He talks about
8192
06:38:23,200 --> 06:38:27,120
material sciences [music] and scientific
8193
06:38:25,520 --> 06:38:29,200
discovery.
8194
06:38:27,120 --> 06:38:31,440
He believes AI will give humans
8195
06:38:29,200 --> 06:38:34,000
superpowers, helping us [music] solve
8196
06:38:31,440 --> 06:38:36,240
climate change, cure diseases, and
8197
06:38:34,000 --> 06:38:38,320
handle the dangerous and mundane tasks
8198
06:38:36,240 --> 06:38:42,840
so we can focus on what truly [music]
8199
06:38:38,320 --> 06:38:42,840
makes us human, curiosity.
8200
06:38:45,440 --> 06:38:49,760
By 2025,
8201
06:38:47,360 --> 06:38:51,520
the world had entered a state of compute
8202
06:38:49,760 --> 06:38:54,718
geopolitics.
8203
06:38:51,520 --> 06:38:57,280
Nvidia was no longer just a company. It
8204
06:38:54,718 --> 06:39:00,400
had become a strategic resource similar
8205
06:38:57,280 --> 06:39:04,000
to oil or grain. The launch of the
8206
06:39:00,400 --> 06:39:06,878
Blackwell B200 hadn't just met demand.
8207
06:39:04,000 --> 06:39:10,400
It had ignited a global scramble.
8208
06:39:06,878 --> 06:39:13,200
Nations like Japan, France, and the UAE
8209
06:39:10,400 --> 06:39:14,798
began building sovereign AI clouds.
8210
06:39:13,200 --> 06:39:17,200
Realizing that depending on a few
8211
06:39:14,798 --> 06:39:20,240
Silicon Valley giants for intelligence
8212
06:39:17,200 --> 06:39:23,520
was a national security risk.
8213
06:39:20,240 --> 06:39:27,280
But as 2025 progressed, a new whisper
8214
06:39:23,520 --> 06:39:30,240
began to haunt the industry. The wall.
8215
06:39:27,280 --> 06:39:33,040
For years, AI progress relied on scaling
8216
06:39:30,240 --> 06:39:35,360
laws. The idea that more data and more
8217
06:39:33,040 --> 06:39:39,280
GPUs would inevitably lead to more
8218
06:39:35,360 --> 06:39:42,000
intelligence. However, in 2026, the
8219
06:39:39,280 --> 06:39:44,638
returns are starting to diminish. Data
8220
06:39:42,000 --> 06:39:46,638
centers are becoming so massive, they
8221
06:39:44,638 --> 06:39:49,040
require their own dedicated nuclear
8222
06:39:46,638 --> 06:39:50,558
power plants. and the lowhanging fruit
8223
06:39:49,040 --> 06:39:52,558
of internet data has [music] been
8224
06:39:50,558 --> 06:39:54,798
exhausted.
8225
06:39:52,558 --> 06:39:57,440
Jensen's response to the wall is
8226
06:39:54,798 --> 06:39:59,600
typically defiant. He pivoted the
8227
06:39:57,440 --> 06:40:03,440
industry towards synthetic data and
8228
06:39:59,600 --> 06:40:06,000
reasoning models. In 2026, Nvidia's
8229
06:40:03,440 --> 06:40:10,240
focus has shifted from simply training
8230
06:40:06,000 --> 06:40:12,558
AI to inference at scale. The goal is no
8231
06:40:10,240 --> 06:40:14,958
longer just to build a model that knows
8232
06:40:12,558 --> 06:40:16,478
everything, but to build a system that
8233
06:40:14,958 --> 06:40:18,958
thinks [music] through a problem for
8234
06:40:16,478 --> 06:40:21,040
days, if necessary, using massive
8235
06:40:18,958 --> 06:40:23,360
clusters of GPUs to reach a
8236
06:40:21,040 --> 06:40:26,558
breakthrough.
8237
06:40:23,360 --> 06:40:27,640
The competition in 2026 has never been
8238
06:40:26,558 --> 06:40:27,760
fiercer.
8239
06:40:27,640 --> 06:40:30,558
>> [music]
8240
06:40:27,760 --> 06:40:32,718
>> Nvidia's biggest customers, Amazon,
8241
06:40:30,558 --> 06:40:35,280
Google, and Microsoft, have become its
8242
06:40:32,718 --> 06:40:38,000
most dangerous rivals, pouring billions
8243
06:40:35,280 --> 06:40:41,920
into their own custom AI chips to escape
8244
06:40:38,000 --> 06:40:44,558
the NVIDIA tax. Yet, the software mode
8245
06:40:41,920 --> 06:40:47,040
remains unreached. While others build
8246
06:40:44,558 --> 06:40:49,600
chips, Jensen is building the entire
8247
06:40:47,040 --> 06:40:51,520
ecosystem, the networking, the
8248
06:40:49,600 --> 06:40:53,760
libraries, and [music] the pre-trained
8249
06:40:51,520 --> 06:40:56,558
models that make a competitor's hardware
8250
06:40:53,760 --> 06:40:58,558
feel like a relic before it even leaves
8251
06:40:56,558 --> 06:41:01,360
the factory.
8252
06:40:58,558 --> 06:41:02,958
In this era, Jensen Hang has become one
8253
06:41:01,360 --> 06:41:05,840
of the world's most influential
8254
06:41:02,958 --> 06:41:08,080
diplomat. He navigates a world where the
8255
06:41:05,840 --> 06:41:10,000
power grid is the new bottleneck and
8256
06:41:08,080 --> 06:41:11,840
where a single shipment of chips can
8257
06:41:10,000 --> 06:41:13,600
determine the economic future of a
8258
06:41:11,840 --> 06:41:16,400
country.
8259
06:41:13,600 --> 06:41:19,600
The trillion dollar question of 2026 is
8260
06:41:16,400 --> 06:41:21,680
no longer if AI will change the world,
8261
06:41:19,600 --> 06:41:24,920
but who will own the infrastructure of
8262
06:41:21,680 --> 06:41:24,920
that change.
8263
06:41:28,320 --> 06:41:32,798
The story of Nvidia is often told as a
8264
06:41:30,718 --> 06:41:35,200
series of lucky breaks or inevitable
8265
06:41:32,798 --> 06:41:38,080
triumphs. [music] But as we look at the
8266
06:41:35,200 --> 06:41:40,798
empire Jensen Hang has built, the
8267
06:41:38,080 --> 06:41:43,040
reality is far more deliberate and far
8268
06:41:40,798 --> 06:41:46,000
more precarious. [music]
8269
06:41:43,040 --> 06:41:47,552
In 2026, the company stands at the
8270
06:41:46,000 --> 06:41:50,000
center of the greatest industrial shift
8271
06:41:47,552 --> 06:41:52,878
[music] in human history.
8272
06:41:50,000 --> 06:41:55,520
Yet for Jensen, the valuation of three,
8273
06:41:52,878 --> 06:41:58,400
four, or 5 trillion is a lagging
8274
06:41:55,520 --> 06:42:00,080
indicator. The true metric is the
8275
06:41:58,400 --> 06:42:02,080
oxygen.
8276
06:42:00,080 --> 06:42:03,920
Throughout his journey, from the dish
8277
06:42:02,080 --> 06:42:06,638
pits of Denny's to the halls of the
8278
06:42:03,920 --> 06:42:08,240
Supreme Court, Jensen has maintained a
8279
06:42:06,638 --> 06:42:09,920
philosophy of intellectual [music]
8280
06:42:08,240 --> 06:42:12,558
honesty.
8281
06:42:09,920 --> 06:42:14,000
He admits when the technology is wrong.
8282
06:42:12,558 --> 06:42:16,718
He pivots when the market [music]
8283
06:42:14,000 --> 06:42:19,360
shifts. And he invests billions when the
8284
06:42:16,718 --> 06:42:21,520
world calls him a fall. He [music] has
8285
06:42:19,360 --> 06:42:24,160
turned a semiconductor company into a
8286
06:42:21,520 --> 06:42:27,280
geopolitical superpower, a software
8287
06:42:24,160 --> 06:42:29,600
fortress, and the primary architect of a
8288
06:42:27,280 --> 06:42:31,280
new form of life.
8289
06:42:29,600 --> 06:42:33,440
Critics ask if Nvidia [music] is a
8290
06:42:31,280 --> 06:42:35,680
bubble waiting to burst, or if the
8291
06:42:33,440 --> 06:42:38,160
scaling laws of AI will eventually hit a
8292
06:42:35,680 --> 06:42:39,840
dead end. But Jensen doesn't [music]
8293
06:42:38,160 --> 06:42:42,638
operate on the timeline of a stock
8294
06:42:39,840 --> 06:42:45,440
market cycle. He operates on the
8295
06:42:42,638 --> 06:42:48,000
timeline of human evolution.
8296
06:42:45,440 --> 06:42:49,680
He isn't just selling [music] chips. He
8297
06:42:48,000 --> 06:42:52,400
is selling the marginal cost of
8298
06:42:49,680 --> 06:42:54,364
intelligence, making the most valuable
8299
06:42:52,400 --> 06:42:55,040
resource in the universe so abundant
8300
06:42:54,364 --> 06:42:58,000
[music]
8301
06:42:55,040 --> 06:43:00,478
that it changes the very definition of
8302
06:42:58,000 --> 06:43:02,638
what is possible.
8303
06:43:00,478 --> 06:43:04,558
Jensen often says that he wakes up every
8304
06:43:02,638 --> 06:43:06,160
morning with the same feeling he had in
8305
06:43:04,558 --> 06:43:07,760
1993.
8306
06:43:06,160 --> 06:43:09,840
the feeling that the company is [music]
8307
06:43:07,760 --> 06:43:12,240
going out of business.
8308
06:43:09,840 --> 06:43:14,000
It is this productive paranoia that
8309
06:43:12,240 --> 06:43:16,878
prevents the cyclical [music] trap that
8310
06:43:14,000 --> 06:43:18,478
claim the giants of the past.
8311
06:43:16,878 --> 06:43:19,680
He doesn't want to be the king of a
8312
06:43:18,478 --> 06:43:22,240
legacy. [music]
8313
06:43:19,680 --> 06:43:27,280
He wants to be the architect of a future
8314
06:43:22,240 --> 06:43:30,478
that hasn't even been imagined yet.
8315
06:43:27,280 --> 06:43:32,878
Run, don't walk. Either you are [music]
8316
06:43:30,478 --> 06:43:35,920
running for food or you are running from
8317
06:43:32,878 --> 06:43:39,120
being food. In the era of the digital
8318
06:43:35,920 --> 06:43:42,120
brain, the race has only just [music]
8319
06:43:39,120 --> 06:43:42,120
begun.
8320
06:45:08,478 --> 06:45:13,360
At the edge of the world, in a country
8321
06:45:10,718 --> 06:45:15,760
with more sheep than people, one of the
8322
06:45:13,360 --> 06:45:19,040
most powerful men in Silicon Valley
8323
06:45:15,760 --> 06:45:22,240
built an escape hatch. Not a vacation
8324
06:45:19,040 --> 06:45:25,920
home, not a tax [music] shelter, a
8325
06:45:22,240 --> 06:45:29,520
contingency plan.
8326
06:45:25,920 --> 06:45:31,760
In 2011, a billionaire quietly secured
8327
06:45:29,520 --> 06:45:33,200
citizenship in New Zealand after
8328
06:45:31,760 --> 06:45:36,160
spending just [music] days in the
8329
06:45:33,200 --> 06:45:38,878
country. A legal backdoor, a
8330
06:45:36,160 --> 06:45:40,638
geopolitical lifeboat
8331
06:45:38,878 --> 06:45:43,360
deep in the [music] rugged terrain of
8332
06:45:40,638 --> 06:45:46,240
New Zealand's South Island, Peter Teal
8333
06:45:43,360 --> 06:45:48,718
owns a vast private estate, [music]
8334
06:45:46,240 --> 06:45:51,360
remote, secluded, and far from the
8335
06:45:48,718 --> 06:45:53,040
centers of power.
8336
06:45:51,360 --> 06:45:56,160
While most billionaires [music] buy
8337
06:45:53,040 --> 06:45:59,120
yachts or private islands feel secured
8338
06:45:56,160 --> 06:46:00,958
something more strategic, New Zealand
8339
06:45:59,120 --> 06:46:03,360
citizenship [music]
8340
06:46:00,958 --> 06:46:06,558
and a vast estate in one of the most
8341
06:46:03,360 --> 06:46:07,920
remote democracies on Earth. The
8342
06:46:06,558 --> 06:46:10,958
purchase price for [music] this
8343
06:46:07,920 --> 06:46:14,400
geopolitical insurance policy.
8344
06:46:10,958 --> 06:46:17,120
In 2011, Theel obtained New Zealand
8345
06:46:14,400 --> 06:46:19,380
citizenship after spending just 12 days
8346
06:46:17,120 --> 06:46:20,478
in the country over the previous 2
8347
06:46:19,380 --> 06:46:22,878
[music] years.
8348
06:46:20,478 --> 06:46:26,200
a process that normally requires years
8349
06:46:22,878 --> 06:46:26,200
of residency.
8350
06:46:26,320 --> 06:46:31,440
The investment that secured this
8351
06:46:28,160 --> 06:46:34,080
exceptional pathway, approximately $7
8352
06:46:31,440 --> 06:46:36,558
million in local assets and business
8353
06:46:34,080 --> 06:46:39,760
investments.
8354
06:46:36,558 --> 06:46:43,520
The centerpiece, a 477
8355
06:46:39,760 --> 06:46:47,200
acre estate near Lake Wanaka, purchased
8356
06:46:43,520 --> 06:46:50,400
for 13.5 million New Zealand, [music]
8357
06:46:47,200 --> 06:46:52,798
about $10 million.
8358
06:46:50,400 --> 06:46:56,320
When New Zealand media exposed the deal
8359
06:46:52,798 --> 06:46:57,440
in 2017, [music] it sparked a national
8360
06:46:56,320 --> 06:46:59,120
scandal.
8361
06:46:57,440 --> 06:47:00,718
>> Hi, Benedict. Nice to talk to you again.
8362
06:46:59,120 --> 06:47:02,638
So, when we last spoke, you told us that
8363
06:47:00,718 --> 06:47:05,280
Peter Teal was granted citizenship after
8364
06:47:02,638 --> 06:47:08,400
having only visited New Zealand four
8365
06:47:05,280 --> 06:47:10,638
times for an unknown number of days
8366
06:47:08,400 --> 06:47:12,638
because the documents had that
8367
06:47:10,638 --> 06:47:14,958
information redacted. Right.
8368
06:47:12,638 --> 06:47:17,040
>> Politicians called it citizenship for
8369
06:47:14,958 --> 06:47:19,680
sale. Opposition leaders [music]
8370
06:47:17,040 --> 06:47:21,920
demanded investigations,
8371
06:47:19,680 --> 06:47:25,120
but Theel had already achieved his
8372
06:47:21,920 --> 06:47:26,878
objective, a legal escape hatch in the
8373
06:47:25,120 --> 06:47:28,558
world's most politically stable
8374
06:47:26,878 --> 06:47:31,440
democracy,
8375
06:47:28,558 --> 06:47:35,200
a geopolitical insurance policy that
8376
06:47:31,440 --> 06:47:37,200
money can buy.
8377
06:47:35,200 --> 06:47:39,440
Why would a man who helped [music] build
8378
06:47:37,200 --> 06:47:42,478
the digital future prepare for the
8379
06:47:39,440 --> 06:47:46,160
collapse of the physical one? What does
8380
06:47:42,478 --> 06:47:49,440
he see that others don't? Yes, it's the
8381
06:47:46,160 --> 06:47:51,840
uh 1 Thessalonians 5:3, [music] the uh
8382
06:47:49,440 --> 06:47:55,360
the the slogan of the Antichrist is
8383
06:47:51,840 --> 06:47:57,360
peace and safety. And so, which is
8384
06:47:55,360 --> 06:47:59,200
nothing wrong with peace and safety, but
8385
06:47:57,360 --> 06:48:01,280
uh you have to sort of imagine that it
8386
06:47:59,200 --> 06:48:03,360
resonates very differently in a world
8387
06:48:01,280 --> 06:48:04,638
where the stakes are so absolute, where
8388
06:48:03,360 --> 06:48:07,680
the stakes are so extreme, [music] where
8389
06:48:04,638 --> 06:48:11,280
the you know the alternative to peace
8390
06:48:07,680 --> 06:48:13,760
and safety is, you know, Armageddon and
8391
06:48:11,280 --> 06:48:16,160
the destruction of all things.
8392
06:48:13,760 --> 06:48:19,600
He is one of the most polarizing figures
8393
06:48:16,160 --> 06:48:22,558
in Silicon Valley. To some, a visionary
8394
06:48:19,600 --> 06:48:25,280
genius who saw the future early. To
8395
06:48:22,558 --> 06:48:26,878
others, the shadow financier of
8396
06:48:25,280 --> 06:48:30,320
movements and [music] candidates who
8397
06:48:26,878 --> 06:48:34,240
challenge liberal democratic norms.
8398
06:48:30,320 --> 06:48:36,718
This is not fear. This is strategy.
8399
06:48:34,240 --> 06:48:40,400
For decades, Peter Theel has made the
8400
06:48:36,718 --> 06:48:43,440
same bet over and over again. Bet
8401
06:48:40,400 --> 06:48:44,240
against consensus. better against the
8402
06:48:43,440 --> 06:48:48,080
crowd, [music]
8403
06:48:44,240 --> 06:48:50,638
bet against the system itself.
8404
06:48:48,080 --> 06:48:53,200
To understand why he built a fortress at
8405
06:48:50,638 --> 06:48:55,272
the end of the earth, we have to go back
8406
06:48:53,200 --> 06:48:56,558
to a childhood of constant displacement.
8407
06:48:55,272 --> 06:48:58,878
[music]
8408
06:48:56,558 --> 06:49:01,040
To a chessboard where consensus meant
8409
06:48:58,878 --> 06:49:03,760
nothing, to a company that [music] tried
8410
06:49:01,040 --> 06:49:07,638
to replace money and another that
8411
06:49:03,760 --> 06:49:07,638
learned to see everything.
8412
06:49:07,840 --> 06:49:12,478
But the estate is [music] more than a
8413
06:49:09,840 --> 06:49:16,478
luxury retreat. It is a fortress
8414
06:49:12,478 --> 06:49:19,120
designed for civilizational uncertainty.
8415
06:49:16,478 --> 06:49:21,760
Off-grid power systems, advanced
8416
06:49:19,120 --> 06:49:23,440
security infrastructure, multiple
8417
06:49:21,760 --> 06:49:26,718
evacuation routes through the [music]
8418
06:49:23,440 --> 06:49:28,958
mountains. Not built for comfort, built
8419
06:49:26,718 --> 06:49:31,600
for continuity.
8420
06:49:28,958 --> 06:49:33,600
While the world debates progress, Peter
8421
06:49:31,600 --> 06:49:35,280
Theel is preparing for a different
8422
06:49:33,600 --> 06:49:38,000
possibility.
8423
06:49:35,280 --> 06:49:41,478
Not how to build the future, how to
8424
06:49:38,000 --> 06:49:41,478
survive it.
8425
06:49:42,798 --> 06:49:48,638
The architect of dissident
8426
06:49:46,400 --> 06:49:52,160
total estimated value of Theo's
8427
06:49:48,638 --> 06:49:53,920
contingency infrastructure 20 to $30
8428
06:49:52,160 --> 06:49:57,280
million.
8429
06:49:53,920 --> 06:49:59,462
Not for lifestyle, not for prestige, but
8430
06:49:57,280 --> 06:50:01,840
for the day the system he helped build
8431
06:49:59,462 --> 06:50:03,920
[music] no longer holds.
8432
06:50:01,840 --> 06:50:06,718
He didn't build this because he panics
8433
06:50:03,920 --> 06:50:08,632
easily. He built it because he has
8434
06:50:06,718 --> 06:50:09,360
always believed that the crowd is wrong
8435
06:50:08,632 --> 06:50:11,920
[music]
8436
06:50:09,360 --> 06:50:15,280
and the future belongs to those willing
8437
06:50:11,920 --> 06:50:18,638
to stand apart from it. Every fortress
8438
06:50:15,280 --> 06:50:20,958
begins as an idea and Peter Theel has
8439
06:50:18,638 --> 06:50:24,840
been building intellectual fortresses
8440
06:50:20,958 --> 06:50:24,840
since he was a child.
8441
06:50:28,798 --> 06:50:34,080
Before he was a billionaire, before he
8442
06:50:31,280 --> 06:50:35,600
funded political outsiders, before he
8443
06:50:34,080 --> 06:50:38,000
built machines that could see
8444
06:50:35,600 --> 06:50:40,000
everything, he was a boy [music]
8445
06:50:38,000 --> 06:50:43,280
who never stayed in one place long
8446
06:50:40,000 --> 06:50:45,280
enough to believe the world made sense.
8447
06:50:43,280 --> 06:50:48,718
So, he searched for a world where the
8448
06:50:45,280 --> 06:50:50,558
rules didn't change. He found it on a
8449
06:50:48,718 --> 06:50:52,958
chessboard.
8450
06:50:50,558 --> 06:50:54,958
To understand Peter Theel, you must
8451
06:50:52,958 --> 06:50:57,600
understand what it means to be a
8452
06:50:54,958 --> 06:51:00,400
permanent outsider.
8453
06:50:57,600 --> 06:51:02,798
Born in Frankfurt, West Germany, Peter
8454
06:51:00,400 --> 06:51:06,400
Theel spent part of his early childhood
8455
06:51:02,798 --> 06:51:08,718
in southwest Africa, now Namibia, before
8456
06:51:06,400 --> 06:51:12,080
growing up mainly in the United States
8457
06:51:08,718 --> 06:51:14,400
between [music] Ohio and California.
8458
06:51:12,080 --> 06:51:17,680
Before he was a teenager, he had already
8459
06:51:14,400 --> 06:51:20,000
experienced life on multiple continents,
8460
06:51:17,680 --> 06:51:22,000
never staying long enough to feel fully
8461
06:51:20,000 --> 06:51:24,718
at home.
8462
06:51:22,000 --> 06:51:28,558
He didn't have a hometown. He didn't
8463
06:51:24,718 --> 06:51:30,958
have a tribe. He only had his own mind.
8464
06:51:28,558 --> 06:51:34,320
And in that isolation, he found a
8465
06:51:30,958 --> 06:51:37,320
language that didn't require a passport.
8466
06:51:34,320 --> 06:51:37,320
Chess.
8467
06:51:37,840 --> 06:51:41,280
For a child who changed continents
8468
06:51:39,680 --> 06:51:43,280
[music] before he could even make
8469
06:51:41,280 --> 06:51:47,280
friends, the outside world was
8470
06:51:43,280 --> 06:51:49,600
unpredictable noise. But the board, the
8471
06:51:47,280 --> 06:51:53,680
board was the only place where the rules
8472
06:51:49,600 --> 06:51:56,558
didn't change depending on the country.
8473
06:51:53,680 --> 06:51:58,958
His
8474
06:51:56,558 --> 06:52:01,360
father, an engineer trained in a culture
8475
06:51:58,958 --> 06:52:03,760
of precision and systems thinking,
8476
06:52:01,360 --> 06:52:07,200
passed on a belief that reality could be
8477
06:52:03,760 --> 06:52:09,760
understood and optimized.
8478
06:52:07,200 --> 06:52:12,798
While other children sought to fit in,
8479
06:52:09,760 --> 06:52:15,600
Peter sought the edge. He learned that
8480
06:52:12,798 --> 06:52:17,280
the consensus of the crowd is usually a
8481
06:52:15,600 --> 06:52:19,840
distraction.
8482
06:52:17,280 --> 06:52:22,478
If everyone is running toward the ball,
8483
06:52:19,840 --> 06:52:24,160
you run toward where the ball is going
8484
06:52:22,478 --> 06:52:26,320
to be.
8485
06:52:24,160 --> 06:52:28,160
Chess is the ultimate antidote to
8486
06:52:26,320 --> 06:52:30,080
consensus.
8487
06:52:28,160 --> 06:52:32,798
In a crowd, you can hide behind a
8488
06:52:30,080 --> 06:52:35,920
popular opinion. In chess, you are
8489
06:52:32,798 --> 06:52:38,160
either right or you are dead. There is
8490
06:52:35,920 --> 06:52:40,798
no middle ground. There is no social
8491
06:52:38,160 --> 06:52:42,798
construction of the board.
8492
06:52:40,798 --> 06:52:45,440
He became a serious tournament chess
8493
06:52:42,798 --> 06:52:48,240
player drawn to a world where rules were
8494
06:52:45,440 --> 06:52:52,000
fixed, outcomes were earned, and
8495
06:52:48,240 --> 06:52:56,320
consensus meant [music] nothing.
8496
06:52:52,000 --> 06:52:58,638
Mid1 1980s Stanford University.
8497
06:52:56,320 --> 06:53:00,958
To the world this was the peak of
8498
06:52:58,638 --> 06:53:05,200
American meritocracy.
8499
06:53:00,958 --> 06:53:07,280
To Theel it was a factory of conformity.
8500
06:53:05,200 --> 06:53:08,558
While his classmates were debating how
8501
06:53:07,280 --> 06:53:11,200
to change [music] the world through
8502
06:53:08,558 --> 06:53:14,558
activism, Theel was wondering why they
8503
06:53:11,200 --> 06:53:16,638
all sounded exactly the same. He saw the
8504
06:53:14,558 --> 06:53:18,798
multiculturalism movement not as
8505
06:53:16,638 --> 06:53:20,958
progress but as a new form of
8506
06:53:18,798 --> 06:53:23,040
fundamentalism.
8507
06:53:20,958 --> 06:53:25,280
Stanford in the late 1980s [music]
8508
06:53:23,040 --> 06:53:28,320
was ground zero for America's culture
8509
06:53:25,280 --> 06:53:30,558
wars, battles over multiculturalism,
8510
06:53:28,320 --> 06:53:32,478
speech, and the purpose of higher
8511
06:53:30,558 --> 06:53:34,798
education.
8512
06:53:32,478 --> 06:53:38,160
Field believed the university was
8513
06:53:34,798 --> 06:53:39,920
drifting toward ideological conformity,
8514
06:53:38,160 --> 06:53:43,360
that certain views were becoming
8515
06:53:39,920 --> 06:53:46,000
socially, if not formally, offlimits.
8516
06:53:43,360 --> 06:53:49,360
Here his investment methodology was
8517
06:53:46,000 --> 06:53:53,280
born. Identify what the crowd considers
8518
06:53:49,360 --> 06:53:56,718
sacred and question it.
8519
06:53:53,280 --> 06:53:59,680
If everyone says identity diversity is
8520
06:53:56,718 --> 06:54:02,638
the most important thing, you argue that
8521
06:53:59,680 --> 06:54:04,718
intellectual diversity is the only thing
8522
06:54:02,638 --> 06:54:06,958
that matters.
8523
06:54:04,718 --> 06:54:10,160
He wasn't looking for friends. He was
8524
06:54:06,958 --> 06:54:13,040
looking to recruit others who like him
8525
06:54:10,160 --> 06:54:16,160
did not fear being hated.
8526
06:54:13,040 --> 06:54:18,718
He founded the Stanford Review.
8527
06:54:16,160 --> 06:54:20,810
The paper quickly became one of the most
8528
06:54:18,718 --> 06:54:21,920
controversial publications on campus,
8529
06:54:20,810 --> 06:54:24,798
[music]
8530
06:54:21,920 --> 06:54:28,638
attacking what field saw as intellectual
8531
06:54:24,798 --> 06:54:30,798
monoculture and political group think.
8532
06:54:28,638 --> 06:54:33,200
He saw that the smartest people in the
8533
06:54:30,798 --> 06:54:36,400
country were all competing for the same
8534
06:54:33,200 --> 06:54:38,160
narrow prizes, thinking the same narrow
8535
06:54:36,400 --> 06:54:41,520
thoughts.
8536
06:54:38,160 --> 06:54:45,040
He did what every top student does. He
8537
06:54:41,520 --> 06:54:47,200
followed the track. After Stanford Law,
8538
06:54:45,040 --> 06:54:49,600
he secured a prestigious federal
8539
06:54:47,200 --> 06:54:51,920
appalate clerkship, the kind of
8540
06:54:49,600 --> 06:54:53,760
credential that opens every elite door
8541
06:54:51,920 --> 06:54:56,000
in America.
8542
06:54:53,760 --> 06:54:58,240
After his clerkship, he joined Sullivan
8543
06:54:56,000 --> 06:55:01,440
and Cromwell in [music] New York, one of
8544
06:54:58,240 --> 06:55:04,160
the most elite law firms in the world.
8545
06:55:01,440 --> 06:55:06,558
On paper, he had reached the summit.
8546
06:55:04,160 --> 06:55:09,120
Wall Street was his great negative
8547
06:55:06,558 --> 06:55:11,360
epiphany.
8548
06:55:09,120 --> 06:55:13,520
But from his perspective, the brightest
8549
06:55:11,360 --> 06:55:15,600
graduates in America were locked in
8550
06:55:13,520 --> 06:55:18,558
brutal competition for careers they
8551
06:55:15,600 --> 06:55:20,958
didn't even seem to want.
8552
06:55:18,558 --> 06:55:23,600
It looked like Renee Gerard's theory
8553
06:55:20,958 --> 06:55:26,000
made flesh, a system where everyone
8554
06:55:23,600 --> 06:55:29,120
desired the same prize simply because
8555
06:55:26,000 --> 06:55:31,920
everyone else did. Wall Street looked at
8556
06:55:29,120 --> 06:55:34,958
Theo like a laboratory of mimemetic
8557
06:55:31,920 --> 06:55:37,520
rivalry. He realized that if he won that
8558
06:55:34,958 --> 06:55:40,798
race, his prize would be becoming the
8559
06:55:37,520 --> 06:55:44,080
man in the office next door. A copy of a
8560
06:55:40,798 --> 06:55:46,240
copy. The day he lost the opportunity to
8561
06:55:44,080 --> 06:55:50,400
clerk for the US Supreme [music] Court
8562
06:55:46,240 --> 06:55:53,680
wasn't a defeat. It was his liberation.
8563
06:55:50,400 --> 06:55:56,320
He lasted less than a year. But Theo's
8564
06:55:53,680 --> 06:55:59,120
first venture after leaving law was a
8565
06:55:56,320 --> 06:56:01,040
humbling lesson in failure. A lesson
8566
06:55:59,120 --> 06:56:04,000
that would shape everything that came
8567
06:56:01,040 --> 06:56:07,280
after.
8568
06:56:04,000 --> 06:56:10,000
In 1996, he launched Theel Capital
8569
06:56:07,280 --> 06:56:12,958
Management,
8570
06:56:10,000 --> 06:56:16,160
a hedge fund focused on currency trading
8571
06:56:12,958 --> 06:56:18,958
and macroeconomic derivatives.
8572
06:56:16,160 --> 06:56:20,958
The strategy was to make big directional
8573
06:56:18,958 --> 06:56:23,440
bets on [music] interest rates,
8574
06:56:20,958 --> 06:56:26,638
inflation expectations, and foreign
8575
06:56:23,440 --> 06:56:30,478
exchange movements. Initial capital
8576
06:56:26,638 --> 06:56:32,558
raised $1 million mostly from Stanford
8577
06:56:30,478 --> 06:56:37,320
connections who believed in the chess
8578
06:56:32,558 --> 06:56:37,320
prodigy turned lawyer turned financia.
8579
06:56:38,160 --> 06:56:43,520
The result was spectacular failure.
8580
06:56:41,280 --> 06:56:46,222
Within the first year, the fund had lost
8581
06:56:43,520 --> 06:56:46,798
significant capital. Industry estimates
8582
06:56:46,222 --> 06:56:50,320
[music]
8583
06:56:46,798 --> 06:56:54,240
suggest losses between 30 and 40% of the
8584
06:56:50,320 --> 06:56:56,638
initial investment pool. Investors fled.
8585
06:56:54,240 --> 06:56:58,638
Some demanded their remaining money back
8586
06:56:56,638 --> 06:57:01,040
immediately. [music]
8587
06:56:58,638 --> 06:57:02,878
The reputation among finance
8588
06:57:01,040 --> 06:57:04,478
professionals, the people he [music] had
8589
06:57:02,878 --> 06:57:08,160
walked away from at Sullivan and
8590
06:57:04,478 --> 06:57:11,440
Cromwell, took a serious hit.
8591
06:57:08,160 --> 06:57:14,718
He was no longer the Stanford genius. He
8592
06:57:11,440 --> 06:57:17,200
was just another failed trader.
8593
06:57:14,718 --> 06:57:19,680
But this failure taught him the most
8594
06:57:17,200 --> 06:57:22,718
important lesson of his career.
8595
06:57:19,680 --> 06:57:25,120
Competition is for losers.
8596
06:57:22,718 --> 06:57:27,840
Do not compete in crowded markets where
8597
06:57:25,120 --> 06:57:29,520
everyone is making the same trades with
8598
06:57:27,840 --> 06:57:31,520
the same information [music] and the
8599
06:57:29,520 --> 06:57:33,920
same tools.
8600
06:57:31,520 --> 06:57:37,120
Wall Street was full of extremely smart
8601
06:57:33,920 --> 06:57:38,718
people doing the same macro trades,
8602
06:57:37,120 --> 06:57:41,280
reading the same economic [music]
8603
06:57:38,718 --> 06:57:44,400
reports, betting on the same currency
8604
06:57:41,280 --> 06:57:46,878
movements. It was a zero someum game
8605
06:57:44,400 --> 06:57:49,680
played by thousands of nearly identical
8606
06:57:46,878 --> 06:57:51,840
players.
8607
06:57:49,680 --> 06:57:54,958
He needed to find a space where the
8608
06:57:51,840 --> 06:57:57,360
rules were still being written. Where
8609
06:57:54,958 --> 06:58:00,638
being first mattered more than being
8610
06:57:57,360 --> 06:58:02,558
best, where a monopoly position was
8611
06:58:00,638 --> 06:58:04,878
still available.
8612
06:58:02,558 --> 06:58:07,280
He needed technology. [music]
8613
06:58:04,878 --> 06:58:11,040
And from the ashes of the capital
8614
06:58:07,280 --> 06:58:13,600
management, a new philosophy was born.
8615
06:58:11,040 --> 06:58:16,878
If you want to create lasting value, you
8616
06:58:13,600 --> 06:58:19,680
have to build a monopoly. This became
8617
06:58:16,878 --> 06:58:23,400
his investing mantra and it would make
8618
06:58:19,680 --> 06:58:23,400
him billions.
8619
06:58:24,958 --> 06:58:29,920
Theel walked away from the firm and went
8620
06:58:27,040 --> 06:58:32,798
back to California not to start a tech
8621
06:58:29,920 --> 06:58:36,400
empire but to try trading then to launch
8622
06:58:32,798 --> 06:58:38,638
a hedge fund. It failed. The system he
8623
06:58:36,400 --> 06:58:42,638
had rejected did not welcome him back as
8624
06:58:38,638 --> 06:58:44,638
a prodigy. It treated him like a nobody.
8625
06:58:42,638 --> 06:58:46,744
That failure would become the last
8626
06:58:44,638 --> 06:58:48,160
lesson before his real beginning.
8627
06:58:46,744 --> 06:58:50,718
[music]
8628
06:58:48,160 --> 06:58:53,600
But he learned something. If you play
8629
06:58:50,718 --> 06:58:55,600
the system game as everyone else, you've
8630
06:58:53,600 --> 06:58:57,600
already lost.
8631
06:58:55,600 --> 06:59:03,240
The chess master was done with the
8632
06:58:57,600 --> 06:59:03,240
board. He was ready to build his own.
8633
06:59:08,240 --> 06:59:12,160
So this is an ATM. What we're going to
8634
06:59:10,160 --> 06:59:14,000
do is transform the traditional banking
8635
06:59:12,160 --> 06:59:17,440
industry.
8636
06:59:14,000 --> 06:59:19,120
>> I do not fit the picture of a banker.
8637
06:59:17,440 --> 06:59:21,200
>> X.com. This is Julie.
8638
06:59:19,120 --> 06:59:23,200
>> Raising $50 million is a matter of
8639
06:59:21,200 --> 06:59:26,000
making a series of phone [music] calls
8640
06:59:23,200 --> 06:59:27,920
and the money is there.
8641
06:59:26,000 --> 06:59:30,478
>> I've sunk the great majority of of my
8642
06:59:27,920 --> 06:59:32,558
net worth into X.com, which is the new
8643
06:59:30,478 --> 06:59:34,638
banking and mutual funds company on the
8644
06:59:32,558 --> 06:59:37,120
internet [music] that I've started.
8645
06:59:34,638 --> 06:59:39,920
December 1998,
8646
06:59:37,120 --> 06:59:43,200
Peter Theel co-founds a company called
8647
06:59:39,920 --> 06:59:46,400
Conffinity with Max Levchin, a brilliant
8648
06:59:43,200 --> 06:59:49,920
Ukrainianborn programmer, and Luke Nosk,
8649
06:59:46,400 --> 06:59:53,120
a fellow Stanford review illuminous.
8650
06:59:49,920 --> 06:59:55,120
Initial funding, $300,000 scraped
8651
06:59:53,120 --> 06:59:57,280
together from friends, family, and
8652
06:59:55,120 --> 06:59:59,360
fellow libertarian true believers from
8653
06:59:57,280 --> 07:00:01,760
the Stamford days.
8654
06:59:59,360 --> 07:00:05,680
The original product idea, digital
8655
07:00:01,760 --> 07:00:08,080
wallets on Palm Pilot handheld devices.
8656
07:00:05,680 --> 07:00:10,638
The vision was that people would beam
8657
07:00:08,080 --> 07:00:13,280
money to each other using infrared ports
8658
07:00:10,638 --> 07:00:16,000
on the Palm Pilots
8659
07:00:13,280 --> 07:00:17,520
in coffee shops, at restaurants,
8660
07:00:16,000 --> 07:00:21,878
persontoerson,
8661
07:00:17,520 --> 07:00:21,878
bypassing banks [music] entirely.
8662
07:00:22,160 --> 07:00:30,240
Total users after 6 months of operation,
8663
07:00:25,760 --> 07:00:32,478
12 people. literally 12.
8664
07:00:30,240 --> 07:00:35,200
Most of them were employees and their
8665
07:00:32,478 --> 07:00:38,798
friends testing the system. It was a
8666
07:00:35,200 --> 07:00:41,760
complete and utter flop. The technology
8667
07:00:38,798 --> 07:00:46,718
worked, but nobody cared. Nobody wanted
8668
07:00:41,760 --> 07:00:50,080
it. March 2000, Confinity pivots hard
8669
07:00:46,718 --> 07:00:52,400
and launches a new feature, email-based
8670
07:00:50,080 --> 07:00:55,520
money transfers.
8671
07:00:52,400 --> 07:00:57,920
You send money to any email address. The
8672
07:00:55,520 --> 07:01:00,400
recipient gets a notification, creates
8673
07:00:57,920 --> 07:01:03,440
an account, and the money is there.
8674
07:01:00,400 --> 07:01:06,878
Simple, instant, revolutionary. The name
8675
07:01:03,440 --> 07:01:08,880
of this new service, PayPal.
8676
07:01:06,878 --> 07:01:11,440
Within weeks, user growth exploded
8677
07:01:08,880 --> 07:01:14,000
[music] at a rate nobody had ever seen
8678
07:01:11,440 --> 07:01:18,558
in financial services.
8679
07:01:14,000 --> 07:01:24,080
Month one, 10,000 users. Month three,
8680
07:01:18,558 --> 07:01:29,040
100,000 users. Month 6, 1 million users.
8681
07:01:24,080 --> 07:01:31,440
Month 12, 5 million users.
8682
07:01:29,040 --> 07:01:33,680
This was the fastest user adoption rate
8683
07:01:31,440 --> 07:01:36,638
in the entire history of financial
8684
07:01:33,680 --> 07:01:39,120
services. Faster than credit cards,
8685
07:01:36,638 --> 07:01:41,120
faster than checking accounts, faster
8686
07:01:39,120 --> 07:01:43,680
than anything.
8687
07:01:41,120 --> 07:01:46,718
But here is what most people do not know
8688
07:01:43,680 --> 07:01:50,080
about PayPal's growth. Here is the
8689
07:01:46,718 --> 07:01:53,200
secret that the mythology leaves out.
8690
07:01:50,080 --> 07:01:57,600
PayPal's explosive user acquisition was
8691
07:01:53,200 --> 07:02:02,478
not organic. It was not word of mouth.
8692
07:01:57,600 --> 07:02:04,798
It was not viral in the natural sense.
8693
07:02:02,478 --> 07:02:08,718
They literally bought their users with
8694
07:02:04,798 --> 07:02:11,520
cash. The strategy was elegantly simple
8695
07:02:08,718 --> 07:02:14,638
and brutally expensive.
8696
07:02:11,520 --> 07:02:17,760
Sign up for a PayPal account, get $10
8697
07:02:14,638 --> 07:02:21,360
deposited instantly. Refer a friend who
8698
07:02:17,760 --> 07:02:25,520
signs up gets another $10. Your friend
8699
07:02:21,360 --> 07:02:27,760
also gets $10. Cost per acquisition 20
8700
07:02:25,520 --> 07:02:30,080
to $40 per user [music]
8701
07:02:27,760 --> 07:02:32,478
depending on how many referrals each
8702
07:02:30,080 --> 07:02:35,760
user generated.
8703
07:02:32,478 --> 07:02:38,638
Monthly cash burn rate at peak growth 10
8704
07:02:35,760 --> 07:02:41,920
to 12 million [music]
8705
07:02:38,638 --> 07:02:44,080
just vanishing into a user acquisition.
8706
07:02:41,920 --> 07:02:47,840
By late 2000, PayPal [music] was
8707
07:02:44,080 --> 07:02:51,520
spending 60 to 70 million annually just
8708
07:02:47,840 --> 07:02:53,600
to buy users with cash incentives.
8709
07:02:51,520 --> 07:02:56,240
They were hemorrhaging money at a
8710
07:02:53,600 --> 07:02:58,798
terrifying rate. Investors were
8711
07:02:56,240 --> 07:03:01,520
panicking. Board members were demanding
8712
07:02:58,798 --> 07:03:04,000
answers.
8713
07:03:01,520 --> 07:03:07,600
How long can you sustain spending $10
8714
07:03:04,000 --> 07:03:10,638
million a month buying users?
8715
07:03:07,600 --> 07:03:13,680
But Theel had done the mathematics. He
8716
07:03:10,638 --> 07:03:16,638
had run the numbers obsessively.
8717
07:03:13,680 --> 07:03:19,882
Each acquired user was worth $100 to
8718
07:03:16,638 --> 07:03:23,120
$200 in lifetime transaction fee revenue
8719
07:03:19,882 --> 07:03:26,160
[music] through the PayPal network. They
8720
07:03:23,120 --> 07:03:30,400
were buying $100 bills for $20 [music]
8721
07:03:26,160 --> 07:03:32,558
bills. It was either genius or insanity
8722
07:03:30,400 --> 07:03:35,120
depending on whether the math actually
8723
07:03:32,558 --> 07:03:38,638
worked. The believed [music] it would
8724
07:03:35,120 --> 07:03:42,080
work. He bet everything on it. But there
8725
07:03:38,638 --> 07:03:44,160
was a problem. a major problem. Another
8726
07:03:42,080 --> 07:03:48,478
company was doing the exact [music] same
8727
07:03:44,160 --> 07:03:51,680
thing. X.com, a finance company founded
8728
07:03:48,478 --> 07:03:54,160
by Elon Musk with money from his Zip 2
8729
07:03:51,680 --> 07:03:58,878
exit and a vision for online banking
8730
07:03:54,160 --> 07:04:02,478
that was nearly identical to PayPal's.
8731
07:03:58,878 --> 07:04:05,440
Two companies, same idea, same market,
8732
07:04:02,478 --> 07:04:08,958
both burning massive amounts of cash at
8733
07:04:05,440 --> 07:04:11,600
completely unsustainable rates. Total
8734
07:04:08,958 --> 07:04:14,638
funding raised between both companies
8735
07:04:11,600 --> 07:04:18,000
over $100 million.
8736
07:04:14,638 --> 07:04:20,958
Combined monthly cash burn rate over $20
8737
07:04:18,000 --> 07:04:23,360
million time until both companies
8738
07:04:20,958 --> 07:04:26,878
simultaneously [music] ran out of money
8739
07:04:23,360 --> 07:04:29,680
less than 6 months.
8740
07:04:26,878 --> 07:04:33,280
The merger was inevitable.
8741
07:04:29,680 --> 07:04:36,320
X.com and Confinity merged into a single
8742
07:04:33,280 --> 07:04:38,638
entity. The combined company kept the
8743
07:04:36,320 --> 07:04:42,400
PayPal name because users had already
8744
07:04:38,638 --> 07:04:44,240
adopted it. The brand had momentum. Elon
8745
07:04:42,400 --> 07:04:47,360
Musk became chief executive [music]
8746
07:04:44,240 --> 07:04:50,360
officer of the merged company for 5
8747
07:04:47,360 --> 07:04:50,360
months.
8748
07:04:51,680 --> 07:04:58,000
October 2000. While Elon Musk was on his
8749
07:04:55,360 --> 07:05:00,718
honeymoon, the board of directors led by
8750
07:04:58,000 --> 07:05:03,920
Peter Theel and other Confinity founders
8751
07:05:00,718 --> 07:05:06,478
held an emergency meeting and voted Musk
8752
07:05:03,920 --> 07:05:09,200
out as CEO.
8753
07:05:06,478 --> 07:05:11,040
The official reasons cited strategic
8754
07:05:09,200 --> 07:05:14,320
disagreements over technology [music]
8755
07:05:11,040 --> 07:05:17,120
platform. Musk wanted to use Microsoft
8756
07:05:14,320 --> 07:05:20,478
software. The Confinity engineers
8757
07:05:17,120 --> 07:05:24,000
believed in Unix based systems. The
8758
07:05:20,478 --> 07:05:29,360
actual reason Theel wanted control, full
8759
07:05:24,000 --> 07:05:31,520
control. This was his company now.
8760
07:05:29,360 --> 07:05:34,878
Peter Theel became chief executive
8761
07:05:31,520 --> 07:05:37,360
officer of PayPal. Elon Musk remained a
8762
07:05:34,878 --> 07:05:41,120
major shareholder, but his operational
8763
07:05:37,360 --> 07:05:44,000
control [music] was finished.
8764
07:05:41,120 --> 07:05:46,160
The two men, both future billionaires,
8765
07:05:44,000 --> 07:05:50,240
both future power brokers, had [music]
8766
07:05:46,160 --> 07:05:53,120
their first battle. feel one. At its
8767
07:05:50,240 --> 07:05:56,080
core, PayPal ran on a simple idea that
8768
07:05:53,120 --> 07:05:58,638
turned into a powerful engine.
8769
07:05:56,080 --> 07:06:02,718
Every time money moved, PayPal took a
8770
07:05:58,638 --> 07:06:04,944
small cut, 2.9% plus 30 cents per
8771
07:06:02,718 --> 07:06:06,958
transaction. If that money crossed
8772
07:06:04,944 --> 07:06:10,320
[music] borders, the fee climbed to
8773
07:06:06,958 --> 07:06:12,478
between 2 1/2 and 4%.
8774
07:06:10,320 --> 07:06:14,400
Then there was the float, the cash
8775
07:06:12,478 --> 07:06:15,440
sitting in PayPal's accounts between
8776
07:06:14,400 --> 07:06:17,200
payments, [music]
8777
07:06:15,440 --> 07:06:20,798
quietly earning interest for the
8778
07:06:17,200 --> 07:06:22,558
company. Tiny slices repeated millions
8779
07:06:20,798 --> 07:06:25,680
of times.
8780
07:06:22,558 --> 07:06:29,440
By 2001, the numbers told the story of a
8781
07:06:25,680 --> 07:06:32,320
system coming to life. Every single day,
8782
07:06:29,440 --> 07:06:35,360
5 to8 million flowed through PayPal's
8783
07:06:32,320 --> 07:06:40,320
network. Each month, that translated
8784
07:06:35,360 --> 07:06:43,280
into 10 to$15 million in revenue.
8785
07:06:40,320 --> 07:06:45,840
But growth at this speed came at a cost.
8786
07:06:43,280 --> 07:06:48,718
Running the system, fighting fraud,
8787
07:06:45,840 --> 07:06:53,840
scaling infrastructure, acquiring users
8788
07:06:48,718 --> 07:06:56,160
was burning 20 to30 million every month.
8789
07:06:53,840 --> 07:06:58,558
The machine worked, it just wasn't
8790
07:06:56,160 --> 07:07:00,558
profitable yet.
8791
07:06:58,558 --> 07:07:03,120
Late 2000,
8792
07:07:00,558 --> 07:07:06,798
PayPal's data scientists discovered
8793
07:07:03,120 --> 07:07:09,200
something crucial. 70% of all PayPal
8794
07:07:06,798 --> 07:07:10,878
transactions were happening on eBay
8795
07:07:09,200 --> 07:07:13,120
auctions.
8796
07:07:10,878 --> 07:07:15,680
People buying and selling random items
8797
07:07:13,120 --> 07:07:19,120
on the internet's largest marketplace
8798
07:07:15,680 --> 07:07:21,440
were using PayPal to move money. The
8799
07:07:19,120 --> 07:07:24,798
strategic insight became immediately
8800
07:07:21,440 --> 07:07:28,958
clear. Make PayPal the only payment
8801
07:07:24,798 --> 07:07:31,404
method that eBay users trust completely.
8802
07:07:28,958 --> 07:07:32,958
Own that market, become indispensable.
8803
07:07:31,404 --> 07:07:35,600
[music]
8804
07:07:32,958 --> 07:07:37,920
The execution buyer protection
8805
07:07:35,600 --> 07:07:40,718
guarantees that eBay's own payment
8806
07:07:37,920 --> 07:07:43,360
system did not offer
8807
07:07:40,718 --> 07:07:47,240
instant payment transfers with no 7-day
8808
07:07:43,360 --> 07:07:47,240
check clearing period.
8809
07:07:47,680 --> 07:07:52,798
Fraud detection algorithms that were
8810
07:07:49,840 --> 07:07:55,680
better than credit card companies. Email
8811
07:07:52,798 --> 07:08:00,160
notifications for every transaction.
8812
07:07:55,680 --> 07:08:03,520
Simple, clean user interface.
8813
07:08:00,160 --> 07:08:07,280
By mid 2001, the strategy was working
8814
07:08:03,520 --> 07:08:10,000
beyond all projections. 50% of all eBay
8815
07:08:07,280 --> 07:08:13,680
auctions accepted PayPal as a payment
8816
07:08:10,000 --> 07:08:16,160
method. PayPal was processing $50
8817
07:08:13,680 --> 07:08:19,120
million daily in eBay related
8818
07:08:16,160 --> 07:08:24,320
transactions alone. And then eBay
8819
07:08:19,120 --> 07:08:26,400
noticed and eBay was not happy.
8820
07:08:24,320 --> 07:08:28,718
eBay launched their own competing
8821
07:08:26,400 --> 07:08:31,520
service called Billpoint and attempted
8822
07:08:28,718 --> 07:08:33,680
to kill PayPal through the marketplace.
8823
07:08:31,520 --> 07:08:36,718
They promoted Billoint in search
8824
07:08:33,680 --> 07:08:39,440
rankings. They penalized sellers who
8825
07:08:36,718 --> 07:08:42,558
only accepted PayPal. They made it
8826
07:08:39,440 --> 07:08:44,320
harder to display the PayPal logo. It
8827
07:08:42,558 --> 07:08:47,360
was war.
8828
07:08:44,320 --> 07:08:50,000
PayPal's response was total war.
8829
07:08:47,360 --> 07:08:52,558
Temporarily lower transaction fees to
8830
07:08:50,000 --> 07:08:54,718
undercut Bill.
8831
07:08:52,558 --> 07:08:57,920
Guarantee faster money transfers than
8832
07:08:54,718 --> 07:09:01,600
eBay could offer. Invest heavily in
8833
07:08:57,920 --> 07:09:04,638
superior $30 million deployed in 2001
8834
07:09:01,600 --> 07:09:07,200
fraud protection. Massive marketing
8835
07:09:04,638 --> 07:09:10,958
spending alone.
8836
07:09:07,200 --> 07:09:15,280
By early 2002, the war was over. PayPal
8837
07:09:10,958 --> 07:09:19,280
controlled 65% of eBay's payment market.
8838
07:09:15,280 --> 07:09:21,600
Bill point at barely 10%.
8839
07:09:19,280 --> 07:09:24,240
eBay executives looked at the numbers
8840
07:09:21,600 --> 07:09:29,280
and reached a conclusion, if you cannot
8841
07:09:24,240 --> 07:09:33,440
beat them, buy them. July 2002,
8842
07:09:29,280 --> 07:09:35,520
eBay acquires PayPal for $1.5 billion in
8843
07:09:33,440 --> 07:09:39,200
eBay stock.
8844
07:09:35,520 --> 07:09:42,080
Peter Theal owned approximately $3.7% of
8845
07:09:39,200 --> 07:09:45,280
PayPal at the time of the acquisition.
8846
07:09:42,080 --> 07:09:48,798
His equity stake was worth $55 million
8847
07:09:45,280 --> 07:09:51,280
in eBay stock. After taxes, he walked
8848
07:09:48,798 --> 07:09:55,200
away with approximately $40 million in
8849
07:09:51,280 --> 07:09:58,798
liquid wealth. At age 34, he had won his
8850
07:09:55,200 --> 07:10:00,798
first billion dollar game.
8851
07:09:58,798 --> 07:10:04,160
But the money was not the most valuable
8852
07:10:00,798 --> 07:10:08,160
thing he extracted from PayPal. The real
8853
07:10:04,160 --> 07:10:10,478
value was the network, the PayPal mafia,
8854
07:10:08,160 --> 07:10:14,558
the name they gave themselves. And it
8855
07:10:10,478 --> 07:10:17,360
was not ironic. It was descriptive. The
8856
07:10:14,558 --> 07:10:19,440
core team that Theel assembled at PayPal
8857
07:10:17,360 --> 07:10:22,638
would go on to create some of the most
8858
07:10:19,440 --> 07:10:28,638
valuable companies in human history.
8859
07:10:22,638 --> 07:10:30,958
Elon Musk Tesla market cap $650 billion.
8860
07:10:28,638 --> 07:10:35,680
SpaceX estimated value [music]
8861
07:10:30,958 --> 07:10:39,520
$150 billion. Reed Hoffman LinkedIn sold
8862
07:10:35,680 --> 07:10:43,600
to Microsoft for $26 billion.
8863
07:10:39,520 --> 07:10:48,400
Steve Chen, Chad Hurley, Jawed Kareem,
8864
07:10:43,600 --> 07:10:53,240
YouTube sold to Google for 1.65 billion,
8865
07:10:48,400 --> 07:10:53,240
now worth over 100 billion.
8866
07:10:53,520 --> 07:11:00,240
Jeremy Stoppleman and Russell Simmons,
8867
07:10:56,160 --> 07:11:03,280
Yelp, peaked at $3 billion market cap.
8868
07:11:00,240 --> 07:11:06,400
David Saxs, Yammer, sold to Microsoft
8869
07:11:03,280 --> 07:11:09,360
for $1.2 billion.
8870
07:11:06,400 --> 07:11:14,000
later founded Craft Ventures. Max
8871
07:11:09,360 --> 07:11:14,718
Levchin, a firm 12 billion company. Also
8872
07:11:14,000 --> 07:11:20,000
co-founded [music]
8873
07:11:14,718 --> 07:11:23,200
Yelp. Keith Rabo, COO of Square, partner
8874
07:11:20,000 --> 07:11:26,200
at Founders Fund, investor in dozens of
8875
07:11:23,200 --> 07:11:26,200
unicorns.
8876
07:11:26,320 --> 07:11:33,040
Roloff Bofer, partner at Seoia Capital,
8877
07:11:30,240 --> 07:11:37,600
led investments in Instagram, YouTube,
8878
07:11:33,040 --> 07:11:40,638
Tumblr, MongoDB, Eventbrite.
8879
07:11:37,600 --> 07:11:42,558
Total value created by the PayPal mafia
8880
07:11:40,638 --> 07:11:46,080
across all their companies,
8881
07:11:42,558 --> 07:11:48,478
conservatively estimated at over $200
8882
07:11:46,080 --> 07:11:50,798
billion in combined market
8883
07:11:48,478 --> 07:11:52,958
capitalization.
8884
07:11:50,798 --> 07:11:54,798
Field's ownership stakes across this
8885
07:11:52,958 --> 07:11:58,000
extended network through direct
8886
07:11:54,798 --> 07:12:01,200
investments and fund positions estimated
8887
07:11:58,000 --> 07:12:03,200
at 2 to4 billion.
8888
07:12:01,200 --> 07:12:06,320
This was not just a company that got
8889
07:12:03,200 --> 07:12:09,200
acquired. This was the creation of the
8890
07:12:06,320 --> 07:12:12,600
most powerful business cartel in Silicon
8891
07:12:09,200 --> 07:12:12,600
Valley history.
8892
07:12:12,798 --> 07:12:18,320
But what made PayPal different was not
8893
07:12:15,360 --> 07:12:20,718
the technology. Not really. The
8894
07:12:18,320 --> 07:12:22,320
technology was impressive but not
8895
07:12:20,718 --> 07:12:24,400
miraculous.
8896
07:12:22,320 --> 07:12:27,200
What made PayPal different was the
8897
07:12:24,400 --> 07:12:29,040
culture, the religion of extreme
8898
07:12:27,200 --> 07:12:32,080
meritocracy.
8899
07:12:29,040 --> 07:12:34,000
The hiring criteria were brutally
8900
07:12:32,080 --> 07:12:37,840
specific.
8901
07:12:34,000 --> 07:12:39,520
One raw intelligence, high test scores,
8902
07:12:37,840 --> 07:12:42,400
ability to solve [music] complex
8903
07:12:39,520 --> 07:12:46,638
puzzles, proof you could think better
8904
07:12:42,400 --> 07:12:49,680
than everyone else. Two, intensity.
8905
07:12:46,638 --> 07:12:51,600
Are you willing to work 100hour weeks?
8906
07:12:49,680 --> 07:12:54,400
Are you willing to sacrifice everything
8907
07:12:51,600 --> 07:12:58,080
else in your life for the mission?
8908
07:12:54,400 --> 07:13:00,878
Three, missionary zeal. Do you actually
8909
07:12:58,080 --> 07:13:03,600
believe we are changing the world or are
8910
07:13:00,878 --> 07:13:06,878
you here for a paycheck?
8911
07:13:03,600 --> 07:13:09,040
Four, loyalty to the tribe. Will you
8912
07:13:06,878 --> 07:13:12,400
protect the other members? Will you put
8913
07:13:09,040 --> 07:13:14,878
the group above yourself?
8914
07:13:12,400 --> 07:13:19,200
Average employee age at PayPal [music]
8915
07:13:14,878 --> 07:13:21,280
25 years old. Average work week 80 to
8916
07:13:19,200 --> 07:13:23,600
100 hours.
8917
07:13:21,280 --> 07:13:26,160
Office culture libertarian,
8918
07:13:23,600 --> 07:13:28,000
anti-regulation, contrarian,
8919
07:13:26,160 --> 07:13:30,080
anti-establishment.
8920
07:13:28,000 --> 07:13:32,558
They called themselves the mafia
8921
07:13:30,080 --> 07:13:36,120
specifically because loyalty mattered
8922
07:13:32,558 --> 07:13:36,120
more than credentials,
8923
07:13:37,360 --> 07:13:42,878
more than degrees, more than previous
8924
07:13:39,520 --> 07:13:45,760
experience. Theel's operating principle
8925
07:13:42,878 --> 07:13:48,080
stated explicitly and repeatedly,
8926
07:13:45,760 --> 07:13:50,320
talented people do not want to work with
8927
07:13:48,080 --> 07:13:53,840
people who are less talented than they
8928
07:13:50,320 --> 07:13:55,520
are. So every new hire must be more
8929
07:13:53,840 --> 07:13:58,320
talented than [music] the average
8930
07:13:55,520 --> 07:14:02,000
current employee. Otherwise, we are
8931
07:13:58,320 --> 07:14:04,718
diluting the talent pool. This created a
8932
07:14:02,000 --> 07:14:08,080
self-reinforcing escalation, [music]
8933
07:14:04,718 --> 07:14:10,798
an arms race of hiring. Every new person
8934
07:14:08,080 --> 07:14:14,320
raised the bar. The standards became
8935
07:14:10,798 --> 07:14:17,520
higher and higher. Only the absolute
8936
07:14:14,320 --> 07:14:20,798
best could get in. And once you were in,
8937
07:14:17,520 --> 07:14:22,958
you were family. But here is what most
8938
07:14:20,798 --> 07:14:24,878
people forget about PayPal. [music]
8939
07:14:22,958 --> 07:14:27,920
Here is the original vision that got
8940
07:14:24,878 --> 07:14:29,840
erased from the mythology. PayPal was
8941
07:14:27,920 --> 07:14:32,878
supposed [music] to destroy the Federal
8942
07:14:29,840 --> 07:14:35,520
Reserve. It was supposed to undermine
8943
07:14:32,878 --> 07:14:38,000
state [music] control of currency. That
8944
07:14:35,520 --> 07:14:40,718
was the actual mission. That was why
8945
07:14:38,000 --> 07:14:43,840
Peter Theel, the libertarian ideologue,
8946
07:14:40,718 --> 07:14:46,400
cared so much.
8947
07:14:43,840 --> 07:14:49,280
The original vision laid out in Theo's
8948
07:14:46,400 --> 07:14:51,200
founding documents create a new digital
8949
07:14:49,280 --> 07:14:52,718
currency outside government [music]
8950
07:14:51,200 --> 07:14:55,440
control.
8951
07:14:52,718 --> 07:14:56,878
Enable true peer-to-peer transactions
8952
07:14:55,440 --> 07:14:58,478
globally without [music] state
8953
07:14:56,878 --> 07:15:00,798
intermediaries.
8954
07:14:58,478 --> 07:15:03,680
Undermine the state monopoly on money
8955
07:15:00,798 --> 07:15:06,240
creation and management.
8956
07:15:03,680 --> 07:15:08,478
build the financial infrastructure for a
8957
07:15:06,240 --> 07:15:10,958
stateless society.
8958
07:15:08,478 --> 07:15:11,760
What actually happened? To become
8959
07:15:10,958 --> 07:15:14,400
mainstream, [music]
8960
07:15:11,760 --> 07:15:16,400
to actually scale, PayPal had to
8961
07:15:14,400 --> 07:15:18,558
compromise every single founding
8962
07:15:16,400 --> 07:15:21,680
principle. They had to integrate [music]
8963
07:15:18,558 --> 07:15:24,638
with the traditional banking system, the
8964
07:15:21,680 --> 07:15:26,878
enemy. They had to comply with know your
8965
07:15:24,638 --> 07:15:28,400
customer and anti-moneyaundering
8966
07:15:26,878 --> 07:15:30,558
regulations,
8967
07:15:28,400 --> 07:15:32,400
government control.
8968
07:15:30,558 --> 07:15:35,120
They had to partner with credit card
8969
07:15:32,400 --> 07:15:36,320
companies. The old system they wanted to
8970
07:15:35,120 --> 07:15:38,638
destroy. [music]
8971
07:15:36,320 --> 07:15:42,160
They had to get licensed in every single
8972
07:15:38,638 --> 07:15:43,360
state. Regulatory capture. They had to
8973
07:15:42,160 --> 07:15:46,240
report suspicious [music]
8974
07:15:43,360 --> 07:15:49,520
transactions to federal authorities.
8975
07:15:46,240 --> 07:15:53,120
Surveillance. By 2002, PayPal [music]
8976
07:15:49,520 --> 07:15:55,680
was regulated exactly like a bank.
8977
07:15:53,120 --> 07:15:58,320
Partnered with banks, dependent on banks
8978
07:15:55,680 --> 07:16:00,958
for all core functionalities. The
8979
07:15:58,320 --> 07:16:03,440
libertarian revolution had become just
8980
07:16:00,958 --> 07:16:05,760
another fintech company playing by the
8981
07:16:03,440 --> 07:16:08,080
government's rules.
8982
07:16:05,760 --> 07:16:10,160
The learned the most important lesson of
8983
07:16:08,080 --> 07:16:11,680
his career from PayPal's failure to
8984
07:16:10,160 --> 07:16:14,558
achieve its [music] revolutionary
8985
07:16:11,680 --> 07:16:17,920
mission. You cannot disrupt the system
8986
07:16:14,558 --> 07:16:20,000
from inside the system. If you want to
8987
07:16:17,920 --> 07:16:21,760
change [music] the rules, you cannot ask
8988
07:16:20,000 --> 07:16:24,718
permission from the people who wrote
8989
07:16:21,760 --> 07:16:29,166
them. This lesson would shape everything
8990
07:16:24,718 --> 07:16:30,558
he did next. Palanteer, Facebook,
8991
07:16:29,166 --> 07:16:34,406
[music]
8992
07:16:30,558 --> 07:16:36,638
his political investments, everything.
8993
07:16:34,406 --> 07:16:39,760
[music] The PayPal acquisition was not
8994
07:16:36,638 --> 07:16:42,558
an ending. It was a beginning, the start
8995
07:16:39,760 --> 07:16:44,240
of something much larger. The pattern
8996
07:16:42,558 --> 07:16:47,440
that emerged [music] over the next 20
8997
07:16:44,240 --> 07:16:50,320
years. PayPal veterans leave and start
8998
07:16:47,440 --> 07:16:52,746
new companies in different sectors.
8999
07:16:50,320 --> 07:16:55,920
Theel invests early as angel investor
9000
07:16:52,746 --> 07:16:58,000
[music] or through founders fund. PayPal
9001
07:16:55,920 --> 07:17:00,878
mafia members join each other's boards
9002
07:16:58,000 --> 07:17:02,638
of directors. Cross investment between
9003
07:17:00,878 --> 07:17:05,840
all their venture funds [music] creates
9004
07:17:02,638 --> 07:17:08,958
alignment. Preferential access to deal
9005
07:17:05,840 --> 07:17:10,320
flow because of network relationships.
9006
07:17:08,958 --> 07:17:13,680
Shared intelligence [music] about
9007
07:17:10,320 --> 07:17:15,600
markets, technology, and opportunities.
9008
07:17:13,680 --> 07:17:17,760
Real examples of how the network
9009
07:17:15,600 --> 07:17:20,958
compounds. Reed [music] Hoffman
9010
07:17:17,760 --> 07:17:22,718
introduces Theel to Mark Zuckerberg in
9011
07:17:20,958 --> 07:17:24,878
2004.
9012
07:17:22,718 --> 07:17:26,718
Theel invests $500,000 [music]
9013
07:17:24,878 --> 07:17:30,400
in Facebook,
9014
07:17:26,718 --> 07:17:32,638
eventually makes over $1 billion.
9015
07:17:30,400 --> 07:17:35,040
Roloff Bother [music] joins Sequoia
9016
07:17:32,638 --> 07:17:37,200
Capital and invests in multiple
9017
07:17:35,040 --> 07:17:39,840
Theelbacked companies, creating
9018
07:17:37,200 --> 07:17:41,872
reciprocal deal flows.
9019
07:17:39,840 --> 07:17:42,400
David Saxs hosts high dollar fundraisers
9020
07:17:41,872 --> 07:17:45,360
[music]
9021
07:17:42,400 --> 07:17:49,638
for Theo's political candidates, mixing
9022
07:17:45,360 --> 07:17:49,638
business and politics seamlessly.
9023
07:17:49,760 --> 07:17:55,360
Max Levchim provides seed capital for
9024
07:17:52,352 --> 07:17:57,920
[music] Palanteer and serves as advisor
9025
07:17:55,360 --> 07:18:00,160
lending credibility.
9026
07:17:57,920 --> 07:18:04,160
This network effect multiplier is
9027
07:18:00,160 --> 07:18:07,200
precisely how Theel turned $55 million
9028
07:18:04,160 --> 07:18:09,680
from PayPal [music] into over $5 billion
9029
07:18:07,200 --> 07:18:13,040
in net worth today.
9030
07:18:09,680 --> 07:18:15,520
The PayPal mafia is not a cute nickname.
9031
07:18:13,040 --> 07:18:17,280
It is not a metaphor. It is the most
9032
07:18:15,520 --> 07:18:20,400
successful organized business [music]
9033
07:18:17,280 --> 07:18:22,558
cartel in Silicon Valley history.
9034
07:18:20,400 --> 07:18:24,878
A self-reinforcing [music] network of
9035
07:18:22,558 --> 07:18:27,120
wealth, power, and influence that has
9036
07:18:24,878 --> 07:18:30,718
shaped the entire technology industry
9037
07:18:27,120 --> 07:18:36,040
for two decades. And Peter Theal sits at
9038
07:18:30,718 --> 07:18:36,040
the center of it all. The Godfather.
9039
07:18:41,360 --> 07:18:46,062
After PayPal, Peter Theel was a man with
9040
07:18:44,320 --> 07:18:49,440
a billion dollars and a dangerous
9041
07:18:46,062 --> 07:18:51,520
[music] secret. While other investors
9042
07:18:49,440 --> 07:18:54,240
were looking at spreadsheets and profit
9043
07:18:51,520 --> 07:18:55,760
margins, Theel was looking at the human
9044
07:18:54,240 --> 07:18:58,558
soul [music] through the eyes of his
9045
07:18:55,760 --> 07:19:01,840
mentor, Renee Gerard.
9046
07:18:58,558 --> 07:19:05,280
Gerard taught him a terrifying truth.
9047
07:19:01,840 --> 07:19:08,400
Human beings don't know what they want.
9048
07:19:05,280 --> 07:19:11,120
We are mimemetic creatures. We don't
9049
07:19:08,400 --> 07:19:13,680
desire things for themselves. We desire
9050
07:19:11,120 --> 07:19:16,160
them because other people desire them.
9051
07:19:13,680 --> 07:19:19,120
We are copy machines disguised as
9052
07:19:16,160 --> 07:19:21,760
individuals.
9053
07:19:19,120 --> 07:19:24,478
August 2004.
9054
07:19:21,760 --> 07:19:27,760
Facebook has been online for exactly 6
9055
07:19:24,478 --> 07:19:30,240
months. It started as a Harvard dorm
9056
07:19:27,760 --> 07:19:33,200
project and has now expanded to several
9057
07:19:30,240 --> 07:19:36,478
college campuses.
9058
07:19:33,200 --> 07:19:40,320
The metrics that Zuckerberg shows Theel
9059
07:19:36,478 --> 07:19:43,680
total registered users 200,000
9060
07:19:40,320 --> 07:19:47,280
almost entirely college students
9061
07:19:43,680 --> 07:19:48,878
daily active user rate 70 to 80%
9062
07:19:47,280 --> 07:19:51,680
engagement
9063
07:19:48,878 --> 07:19:55,840
unprecedented in web [music] services
9064
07:19:51,680 --> 07:19:58,878
revenue $0 no business model yet
9065
07:19:55,840 --> 07:20:00,638
valuation Zuckerberg is asking for $5
9066
07:19:58,878 --> 07:20:02,478
million
9067
07:20:00,638 --> 07:20:05,040
every single professional venture
9068
07:20:02,478 --> 07:20:07,840
capitalist in Silicon Valley has passed
9069
07:20:05,040 --> 07:20:10,958
on Facebook. Every major firm has looked
9070
07:20:07,840 --> 07:20:13,040
into it and said no. The reasons they
9071
07:20:10,958 --> 07:20:17,120
gave it is just a [music] college
9072
07:20:13,040 --> 07:20:18,958
directory. Limited market. Fster has
9073
07:20:17,120 --> 07:20:22,000
already 5 million users [music]
9074
07:20:18,958 --> 07:20:24,558
and is the leader in social networking.
9075
07:20:22,000 --> 07:20:27,520
MySpace is dominant with 8 million users
9076
07:20:24,558 --> 07:20:29,554
and growing fast. There is no obvious
9077
07:20:27,520 --> 07:20:30,558
business model or revenue stream.
9078
07:20:29,554 --> 07:20:33,120
[music]
9079
07:20:30,558 --> 07:20:38,000
Mark Zuckerberg is too young, too
9080
07:20:33,120 --> 07:20:40,320
inexperienced, too risky as a founder.
9081
07:20:38,000 --> 07:20:42,878
Peter Theel saw something completely
9082
07:20:40,320 --> 07:20:45,040
different, something that had nothing to
9083
07:20:42,878 --> 07:20:47,440
do with technology.
9084
07:20:45,040 --> 07:20:50,478
The had spent years studying Renee
9085
07:20:47,440 --> 07:20:52,000
Gerard's mimemetic theory, the
9086
07:20:50,478 --> 07:20:54,000
philosophical framework that [music]
9087
07:20:52,000 --> 07:20:58,000
would shape his entire investment
9088
07:20:54,000 --> 07:21:00,160
approach, the core idea, humans do not
9089
07:20:58,000 --> 07:21:02,080
have original desires.
9090
07:21:00,160 --> 07:21:05,120
We desire what other people [music]
9091
07:21:02,080 --> 07:21:08,558
desire. We learn what to want by
9092
07:21:05,120 --> 07:21:13,120
watching other people want. Desire is
9093
07:21:08,558 --> 07:21:14,958
imitative. Desire is social. Desire is
9094
07:21:13,120 --> 07:21:17,120
mimemetic.
9095
07:21:14,958 --> 07:21:19,120
When Theel looked at Facebook, he did
9096
07:21:17,120 --> 07:21:21,920
not see a technology platform for
9097
07:21:19,120 --> 07:21:24,320
connecting friends. He saw something far
9098
07:21:21,920 --> 07:21:27,520
more powerful. He saw the perfect
9099
07:21:24,320 --> 07:21:30,558
mimemetic desire machine. the insight
9100
07:21:27,520 --> 07:21:32,436
that made Theel invest. Social networks
9101
07:21:30,558 --> 07:21:34,638
do not create value by connecting
9102
07:21:32,436 --> 07:21:37,920
[music] people. That is not where the
9103
07:21:34,638 --> 07:21:40,080
money is. The money is in comparison.
9104
07:21:37,920 --> 07:21:43,200
The money is in making people compare
9105
07:21:40,080 --> 07:21:45,920
themselves to each other constantly.
9106
07:21:43,200 --> 07:21:48,718
You see your friend's vacation photos,
9107
07:21:45,920 --> 07:21:51,040
you want a better vacation. You see
9108
07:21:48,718 --> 07:21:53,680
someone's job promotion announcement,
9109
07:21:51,040 --> 07:21:56,020
you want higher status. You see
9110
07:21:53,680 --> 07:21:58,958
someone's relationship photos, you want
9111
07:21:56,020 --> 07:22:00,798
[music] romance.
9112
07:21:58,958 --> 07:22:04,080
You see someone getting likes and
9113
07:22:00,798 --> 07:22:06,958
comments, you want validation.
9114
07:22:04,080 --> 07:22:10,320
You see someone's perfect life, you feel
9115
07:22:06,958 --> 07:22:13,120
your own life is inadequate.
9116
07:22:10,320 --> 07:22:16,958
Facebook was not selling connections.
9117
07:22:13,120 --> 07:22:19,280
Facebook was selling envy. And envy the
9118
07:22:16,958 --> 07:22:21,520
understood from Gerard is the most
9119
07:22:19,280 --> 07:22:22,798
powerful [music] economic force in human
9120
07:22:21,520 --> 07:22:26,000
history.
9121
07:22:22,798 --> 07:22:28,798
The desire for what others have. They
9122
07:22:26,000 --> 07:22:32,080
need to keep up. The fear of being left
9123
07:22:28,798 --> 07:22:35,520
behind. Infinite envy creates infinite
9124
07:22:32,080 --> 07:22:37,840
demand. Infinite demand creates infinite
9125
07:22:35,520 --> 07:22:40,320
value.
9126
07:22:37,840 --> 07:22:44,240
September 2004.
9127
07:22:40,320 --> 07:22:46,160
Peter Theal wires $500,000 to Facebook
9128
07:22:44,240 --> 07:22:50,400
incororated.
9129
07:22:46,160 --> 07:22:53,280
The deal terms 10.2% equity ownership in
9130
07:22:50,400 --> 07:22:55,040
the company. A board seat giving him
9131
07:22:53,280 --> 07:22:56,718
governance rights and inside
9132
07:22:55,040 --> 07:22:59,600
information.
9133
07:22:56,718 --> 07:23:02,958
Right of first refusal on all future
9134
07:22:59,600 --> 07:23:05,760
funding rounds. Post money valuation of
9135
07:23:02,958 --> 07:23:07,840
exactly $5 million.
9136
07:23:05,760 --> 07:23:11,120
Mark Zuckerberg's reaction after the
9137
07:23:07,840 --> 07:23:14,080
deal closed. This guy actually gets it.
9138
07:23:11,120 --> 07:23:17,120
He understands what we are building.
9139
07:23:14,080 --> 07:23:19,040
Silicon Valley's reaction. Peter Theal
9140
07:23:17,120 --> 07:23:22,160
just threw away half a million dollars
9141
07:23:19,040 --> 07:23:24,718
on a college kid's website. This will be
9142
07:23:22,160 --> 07:23:27,040
his biggest failure.
9143
07:23:24,718 --> 07:23:29,280
What happened next rewrote the history
9144
07:23:27,040 --> 07:23:34,638
of venture capital.
9145
07:23:29,280 --> 07:23:36,878
2004 end of year. 200,000 users grew to
9146
07:23:34,638 --> 07:23:40,958
1 million users.
9147
07:23:36,878 --> 07:23:44,478
Five times growth in 4 months. 2005
9148
07:23:40,958 --> 07:23:50,000
1 million users becomes 5.5 million
9149
07:23:44,478 --> 07:23:54,878
users. 2006 5.5 million users becomes 12
9150
07:23:50,000 --> 07:23:59,680
million users. 2007 12 million users
9151
07:23:54,878 --> 07:24:02,558
exploded to 50 million users. 2008 50
9152
07:23:59,680 --> 07:24:04,400
million users doubles to 100 million
9153
07:24:02,558 --> 07:24:05,920
users.
9154
07:24:04,400 --> 07:24:09,520
2009
9155
07:24:05,920 --> 07:24:12,878
100 million users becomes 350 million
9156
07:24:09,520 --> 07:24:16,000
users. growth rate. The user base was
9157
07:24:12,878 --> 07:24:18,400
doubling every 6 to9 months for five
9158
07:24:16,000 --> 07:24:20,958
consecutive years.
9159
07:24:18,400 --> 07:24:23,680
This growth curve had never been seen
9160
07:24:20,958 --> 07:24:27,200
before in business history. Not even
9161
07:24:23,680 --> 07:24:29,680
close. As Facebook grew, its valuation
9162
07:24:27,200 --> 07:24:32,000
grew and Peter Theel's stake grew with
9163
07:24:29,680 --> 07:24:34,160
it.
9164
07:24:32,000 --> 07:24:37,920
May 2005,
9165
07:24:34,160 --> 07:24:40,798
Axel Partners invests $12.7 million at
9166
07:24:37,920 --> 07:24:44,558
$100 million valuation.
9167
07:24:40,798 --> 07:24:48,080
Field's 10.2% stake is now worth $10.2
9168
07:24:44,558 --> 07:24:50,718
million. He has achieved 20 times return
9169
07:24:48,080 --> 07:24:54,240
in 9 months.
9170
07:24:50,718 --> 07:24:57,280
April 2006, Greylock Partners and
9171
07:24:54,240 --> 07:25:01,280
Meritech Capital [music] invest $27.5
9172
07:24:57,280 --> 07:25:04,718
million at $500 million valuation.
9173
07:25:01,280 --> 07:25:07,040
Theel stake is now worth $51 million,
9174
07:25:04,718 --> 07:25:08,718
100 times return on his original
9175
07:25:07,040 --> 07:25:11,200
investment.
9176
07:25:08,718 --> 07:25:15,760
October 2007,
9177
07:25:11,200 --> 07:25:19,440
Microsoft invests $240 million, valuing
9178
07:25:15,760 --> 07:25:23,840
Facebook at $15 billion.
9179
07:25:19,440 --> 07:25:28,400
Theel stake is now worth $1.5 billion, a
9180
07:25:23,840 --> 07:25:31,360
300,000 times return in 3 years.
9181
07:25:28,400 --> 07:25:33,760
2009 through 2011,
9182
07:25:31,360 --> 07:25:36,878
multiple private sales and secondary
9183
07:25:33,760 --> 07:25:38,718
transactions value Facebook at $50
9184
07:25:36,878 --> 07:25:41,680
billion.
9185
07:25:38,718 --> 07:25:45,120
The stake, if he had held everything,
9186
07:25:41,680 --> 07:25:48,478
would be worth $5 billion.
9187
07:25:45,120 --> 07:25:50,878
May 18th, 2012.
9188
07:25:48,478 --> 07:25:55,760
Facebook goes public at a market
9189
07:25:50,878 --> 07:25:58,400
capitalization of $14 billion.
9190
07:25:55,760 --> 07:26:01,600
But Theel does not hold everything. He
9191
07:25:58,400 --> 07:26:04,878
is strategic. He is tactical. He takes
9192
07:26:01,600 --> 07:26:08,878
profits. At the initial public offering,
9193
07:26:04,878 --> 07:26:10,638
Theel sells $640 million worth of shares
9194
07:26:08,878 --> 07:26:12,878
immediately.
9195
07:26:10,638 --> 07:26:15,040
Over the following 6 months, he sells
9196
07:26:12,878 --> 07:26:17,440
the remainder of his stake in carefully
9197
07:26:15,040 --> 07:26:19,680
timed transactions.
9198
07:26:17,440 --> 07:26:24,400
Total cash realized from the Facebook
9199
07:26:19,680 --> 07:26:27,680
investment approximately $1 billion.
9200
07:26:24,400 --> 07:26:29,680
Initial investment in August 2004,
9201
07:26:27,680 --> 07:26:33,760
$500,000.
9202
07:26:29,680 --> 07:26:35,520
Total cash realized by end of 2012, $1
9203
07:26:33,760 --> 07:26:40,320
billion.
9204
07:26:35,520 --> 07:26:42,160
Total return 2,000 times in 8 years.
9205
07:26:40,320 --> 07:26:44,000
This is the single greatest venture
9206
07:26:42,160 --> 07:26:47,840
capital return in recorded [music]
9207
07:26:44,000 --> 07:26:51,040
history. Nothing else comes close. But
9208
07:26:47,840 --> 07:26:53,440
here is the twist. The haunting decision
9209
07:26:51,040 --> 07:26:56,398
that [music] Theel himself admits keeps
9210
07:26:53,440 --> 07:26:57,920
him awake at night. Selling was a
9211
07:26:56,398 --> 07:27:00,638
mistake.
9212
07:26:57,920 --> 07:27:01,840
If Peter Theal had held his original
9213
07:27:00,638 --> 07:27:04,718
10.2% [music]
9214
07:27:01,840 --> 07:27:07,120
stake and had never sold a single share,
9215
07:27:04,718 --> 07:27:08,320
that stake at Facebook's peak market
9216
07:27:07,120 --> 07:27:12,240
capitalization [music]
9217
07:27:08,320 --> 07:27:14,160
in 2021 would have been worth $12
9218
07:27:12,240 --> 07:27:17,280
billion.
9219
07:27:14,160 --> 07:27:20,320
$12 [music] billion.
9220
07:27:17,280 --> 07:27:22,478
He left $100 billion on the table by
9221
07:27:20,320 --> 07:27:24,718
selling early.
9222
07:27:22,478 --> 07:27:26,638
The himself admitted this publicly,
9223
07:27:24,718 --> 07:27:29,440
saying, "The [music] mistake was not
9224
07:27:26,638 --> 07:27:31,520
investing in Facebook. The mistake was
9225
07:27:29,440 --> 07:27:34,240
selling Facebook.
9226
07:27:31,520 --> 07:27:36,398
I should have held longer. I should have
9227
07:27:34,240 --> 07:27:39,680
believed [music] more. It is the single
9228
07:27:36,398 --> 07:27:41,440
most expensive decision of his life."
9229
07:27:39,680 --> 07:27:43,920
Years
9230
07:27:41,440 --> 07:27:46,958
later in a Stanford lecture, Theel
9231
07:27:43,920 --> 07:27:50,478
explained his actual investment thesis,
9232
07:27:46,958 --> 07:27:52,080
the real reason he invested. I did not
9233
07:27:50,478 --> 07:27:54,000
invest in Facebook because [music] I
9234
07:27:52,080 --> 07:27:56,638
thought social networks were going to be
9235
07:27:54,000 --> 07:27:59,120
big. I invested because I understood
9236
07:27:56,638 --> 07:28:01,920
that humans will always want to be more
9237
07:27:59,120 --> 07:28:04,718
like their peers. That desire is
9238
07:28:01,920 --> 07:28:06,878
infinite. [music] It never stops. It
9239
07:28:04,718 --> 07:28:08,798
only intensifies.
9240
07:28:06,878 --> 07:28:12,080
An infinite [music] desire creates
9241
07:28:08,798 --> 07:28:14,558
infinite value. The mimemetic theory
9242
07:28:12,080 --> 07:28:16,798
made him a billionaire.
9243
07:28:14,558 --> 07:28:20,398
The mimemetic theory also made him
9244
07:28:16,798 --> 07:28:23,760
terrified of what he had helped create.
9245
07:28:20,398 --> 07:28:26,240
A machine that weaponizes human envy. A
9246
07:28:23,760 --> 07:28:28,160
system that profits from making people
9247
07:28:26,240 --> 07:28:30,798
feel inadequate.
9248
07:28:28,160 --> 07:28:33,360
An algorithm that amplifies the worst
9249
07:28:30,798 --> 07:28:35,600
aspects of human nature.
9250
07:28:33,360 --> 07:28:38,478
Peter Theal helped build the most
9251
07:28:35,600 --> 07:28:42,000
powerful behavior modification system in
9252
07:28:38,478 --> 07:28:45,878
human history. And then he cashed out
9253
07:28:42,000 --> 07:28:45,878
for a billion dollars.
9254
07:28:52,240 --> 07:28:59,680
2003 Peter Theel [music] has a problem.
9255
07:28:56,398 --> 07:29:02,398
It is the CIA's problem, but they think
9256
07:28:59,680 --> 07:29:04,390
the [music] can solve it. His PayPal
9257
07:29:02,398 --> 07:29:06,878
anti-fraud algorithms have become
9258
07:29:04,390 --> 07:29:09,680
[music] so sophisticated at detecting
9259
07:29:06,878 --> 07:29:11,840
patterns in financial transactions at
9260
07:29:09,680 --> 07:29:14,638
finding terrorists trying to move money
9261
07:29:11,840 --> 07:29:18,320
through [music] banking systems that the
9262
07:29:14,638 --> 07:29:20,080
CIA venture capital arm in QEL requested
9263
07:29:18,320 --> 07:29:22,958
a meeting.
9264
07:29:20,080 --> 07:29:25,440
The pitch from the CIA, can you build
9265
07:29:22,958 --> 07:29:28,080
what you built for [music] PayPal but
9266
07:29:25,440 --> 07:29:31,840
for national security? Can you find
9267
07:29:28,080 --> 07:29:33,760
terrorists the way you found fraudsters?
9268
07:29:31,840 --> 07:29:36,160
May 2003,
9269
07:29:33,760 --> 07:29:38,558
Peter Theel co-founds Palunteer
9270
07:29:36,160 --> 07:29:40,160
Technologies with an unusual group of
9271
07:29:38,558 --> 07:29:43,120
co-founders.
9272
07:29:40,160 --> 07:29:46,558
The founding team, Alex Karp, chief
9273
07:29:43,120 --> 07:29:48,958
executive officer, Stanford Law Degree,
9274
07:29:46,558 --> 07:29:51,600
philosophy, PhD from Frankfurt
9275
07:29:48,958 --> 07:29:54,240
University in Germany, former human
9276
07:29:51,600 --> 07:29:55,760
rights lawyer who once worked on refugee
9277
07:29:54,240 --> 07:29:58,320
cases.
9278
07:29:55,760 --> 07:30:00,320
an extremely odd choice to run a company
9279
07:29:58,320 --> 07:30:02,478
that will become the most powerful
9280
07:30:00,320 --> 07:30:04,000
surveillance technology provider on
9281
07:30:02,478 --> 07:30:06,558
Earth.
9282
07:30:04,000 --> 07:30:09,680
Nathan Gettings, chief technology
9283
07:30:06,558 --> 07:30:12,638
officer. PayPal's lead security
9284
07:30:09,680 --> 07:30:15,600
engineer. Brilliant programmer. Joe
9285
07:30:12,638 --> 07:30:18,080
Lonsdale, a Stamford undergraduate
9286
07:30:15,600 --> 07:30:21,280
student, barely [music] 20 years old,
9287
07:30:18,080 --> 07:30:23,840
one of the first Theel fellows. Steven
9288
07:30:21,280 --> 07:30:26,558
Cohen, PayPal's chief security
9289
07:30:23,840 --> 07:30:28,958
architect. The person who actually built
9290
07:30:26,558 --> 07:30:31,840
the fraud detection [music] algorithms.
9291
07:30:28,958 --> 07:30:34,000
Initial funding $2 million
9292
07:30:31,840 --> 07:30:37,600
entirely from Peter Theel's personal
9293
07:30:34,000 --> 07:30:39,760
capital. No outside investors yet. This
9294
07:30:37,600 --> 07:30:42,398
is his project.
9295
07:30:39,760 --> 07:30:44,958
The mission statement. Build software
9296
07:30:42,398 --> 07:30:47,520
that can find patterns in massive data
9297
07:30:44,958 --> 07:30:49,520
sets from disperate incompatible
9298
07:30:47,520 --> 07:30:52,558
sources.
9299
07:30:49,520 --> 07:30:54,878
The kind of data that if intelligency
9300
07:30:52,558 --> 07:30:57,840
agencies had been able to analyze it
9301
07:30:54,878 --> 07:31:00,798
properly could have prevented September
9302
07:30:57,840 --> 07:31:04,398
11th, 2001.
9303
07:31:00,798 --> 07:31:06,798
The company name Palunteer named after
9304
07:31:04,398 --> 07:31:08,798
the seeing stones in Lord of the Rings,
9305
07:31:06,798 --> 07:31:10,958
the magical orbs that allow their
9306
07:31:08,798 --> 07:31:13,920
possessors to see anything happening
9307
07:31:10,958 --> 07:31:17,360
anywhere in Middle Earth. Even the name
9308
07:31:13,920 --> 07:31:18,878
revealed the ambition total information
9309
07:31:17,360 --> 07:31:23,718
awareness.
9310
07:31:18,878 --> 07:31:23,718
the ability to see everything.
9311
07:31:23,920 --> 07:31:28,492
2005,
9312
07:31:25,440 --> 07:31:29,040
the CIA's venture capital arm in CQEL
9313
07:31:28,492 --> 07:31:31,920
[music]
9314
07:31:29,040 --> 07:31:34,798
invest $2 million in Palanteer's series
9315
07:31:31,920 --> 07:31:37,520
A funding round. This was not just
9316
07:31:34,798 --> 07:31:38,320
money. This was validation from the
9317
07:31:37,520 --> 07:31:41,200
intelligence [music]
9318
07:31:38,320 --> 07:31:43,440
community, a stamp of approval from the
9319
07:31:41,200 --> 07:31:45,200
most secretive, most paranoid
9320
07:31:43,440 --> 07:31:46,798
organization in the US [music]
9321
07:31:45,200 --> 07:31:50,638
government.
9322
07:31:46,798 --> 07:31:51,840
Initial contract value undisclosed.
9323
07:31:50,638 --> 07:31:54,958
Government intelligence [music]
9324
07:31:51,840 --> 07:31:57,840
contracts are classified by law, but
9325
07:31:54,958 --> 07:32:00,718
industry analysts estimate the first CIA
9326
07:31:57,840 --> 07:32:02,240
contracts were worth 5 to 10 million
9327
07:32:00,718 --> 07:32:05,440
annually.
9328
07:32:02,240 --> 07:32:08,638
The product was called Palunteer Gotham.
9329
07:32:05,440 --> 07:32:11,760
The name itself was significant. Gotham,
9330
07:32:08,638 --> 07:32:14,000
the dark city that needs Batman. The
9331
07:32:11,760 --> 07:32:17,600
city that needs surveillance to fight
9332
07:32:14,000 --> 07:32:19,600
crime. core technical capabilities.
9333
07:32:17,600 --> 07:32:22,320
Integrate data from dozens of
9334
07:32:19,600 --> 07:32:24,320
incompatible government databases that
9335
07:32:22,320 --> 07:32:27,040
were never designed to communicate with
9336
07:32:24,320 --> 07:32:29,680
each other. From hidden connections
9337
07:32:27,040 --> 07:32:33,600
between people, places, financial
9338
07:32:29,680 --> 07:32:36,240
transactions, communications metadata,
9339
07:32:33,600 --> 07:32:38,478
visualize networks of relationships in
9340
07:32:36,240 --> 07:32:40,478
ways human analysts could understand
9341
07:32:38,478 --> 07:32:42,798
intuitively.
9342
07:32:40,478 --> 07:32:45,040
Predict future behavior and likely
9343
07:32:42,798 --> 07:32:48,000
attack patterns based on historical
9344
07:32:45,040 --> 07:32:50,878
data. Specific use cases for
9345
07:32:48,000 --> 07:32:53,840
intelligence agencies. Track terrorist
9346
07:32:50,878 --> 07:32:55,840
cells across multiple countries. Map
9347
07:32:53,840 --> 07:32:58,000
drug trafficking routes from production
9348
07:32:55,840 --> 07:33:00,160
to distribution.
9349
07:32:58,000 --> 07:33:03,120
Identify money laundering networks
9350
07:33:00,160 --> 07:33:05,600
moving funds for organized crime.
9351
07:33:03,120 --> 07:33:07,840
Predict insurgent attacks in Iraq and
9352
07:33:05,600 --> 07:33:11,520
Afghanistan based on pattern
9353
07:33:07,840 --> 07:33:15,280
recognition. It worked. The software
9354
07:33:11,520 --> 07:33:18,398
actually worked. By 2006, Palanteer
9355
07:33:15,280 --> 07:33:19,760
software was being actively used in Iraq
9356
07:33:18,398 --> 07:33:24,958
for counterinsurgency [music]
9357
07:33:19,760 --> 07:33:27,200
operations and in IED attack prediction.
9358
07:33:24,958 --> 07:33:30,160
Afghanistan for predicting Taliban
9359
07:33:27,200 --> 07:33:33,760
leadership networks. Langley, Virginia
9360
07:33:30,160 --> 07:33:36,478
at CIA headquarters for threat analysis.
9361
07:33:33,760 --> 07:33:40,680
FBI field officers nationwide for
9362
07:33:36,478 --> 07:33:40,680
domestic terrorism investigation.
9363
07:33:40,718 --> 07:33:46,878
Early revenue growth told the story of
9364
07:33:42,878 --> 07:33:49,680
Palunteers expanding reach. 2005
9365
07:33:46,878 --> 07:33:52,558
$3 million in revenue. Government
9366
07:33:49,680 --> 07:33:56,000
contracts [music] only. 2006 $10
9367
07:33:52,558 --> 07:33:58,000
million. 2007
9368
07:33:56,000 --> 07:34:02,000
$25 million. [music]
9369
07:33:58,000 --> 07:34:07,520
2008 $50 million. First commercial
9370
07:34:02,000 --> 07:34:13,200
clients added 2010 $150 million [music]
9371
07:34:07,520 --> 07:34:15,360
2012 $400 million. By 2012, Palanteer
9372
07:34:13,200 --> 07:34:18,160
had achieved something extremely rare
9373
07:34:15,360 --> 07:34:20,160
for a high- growth technology company.
9374
07:34:18,160 --> 07:34:22,240
Profitability.
9375
07:34:20,160 --> 07:34:24,878
They were actually making money, [music]
9376
07:34:22,240 --> 07:34:28,478
not just burning venture capital.
9377
07:34:24,878 --> 07:34:32,478
Customer revenue breakdown in 2012.
9378
07:34:28,478 --> 07:34:35,040
Government contracts, 60% of revenue,
9379
07:34:32,478 --> 07:34:39,520
$240 million.
9380
07:34:35,040 --> 07:34:42,240
Commercial clients, 40% of revenue, $160
9381
07:34:39,520 --> 07:34:44,718
million.
9382
07:34:42,240 --> 07:34:47,360
May the 1st, 2011. [music]
9383
07:34:44,718 --> 07:34:50,798
Palanteer Software plays a role in the
9384
07:34:47,360 --> 07:34:53,360
operation that kills Osama bin Laden. A
9385
07:34:50,798 --> 07:34:55,680
role that remains partially classified,
9386
07:34:53,360 --> 07:34:57,200
but has been confirmed by multiple
9387
07:34:55,680 --> 07:35:00,000
sources.
9388
07:34:57,200 --> 07:35:02,320
How Palanteer contributed. Palanteer
9389
07:35:00,000 --> 07:35:04,718
Gotham integrated dozens of different
9390
07:35:02,320 --> 07:35:07,120
intelligence sources.
9391
07:35:04,718 --> 07:35:10,320
CIA human intelligence on career
9392
07:35:07,120 --> 07:35:12,878
networks. NSA signal intelligence
9393
07:35:10,320 --> 07:35:15,760
including phone metadata and email
9394
07:35:12,878 --> 07:35:18,878
communications patterns.
9395
07:35:15,760 --> 07:35:21,760
National Geospatial Intelligence Agency
9396
07:35:18,878 --> 07:35:23,280
satellite imagery of potential compound
9397
07:35:21,760 --> 07:35:25,760
locations.
9398
07:35:23,280 --> 07:35:27,760
historical pattern analysis of previous
9399
07:35:25,760 --> 07:35:30,558
highv value target operations in
9400
07:35:27,760 --> 07:35:32,638
Pakistan.
9401
07:35:30,558 --> 07:35:34,958
The system identified patterns and
9402
07:35:32,638 --> 07:35:37,440
connections that human analysts working
9403
07:35:34,958 --> 07:35:40,638
with separate databases that did not
9404
07:35:37,440 --> 07:35:42,878
communicate had missed. It narrowed the
9405
07:35:40,638 --> 07:35:47,360
search area and helped confirm the
9406
07:35:42,878 --> 07:35:49,440
identity of the Abotabad compound.
9407
07:35:47,360 --> 07:35:52,398
When asked about Palanteer's role in the
9408
07:35:49,440 --> 07:35:55,680
bin Laden operation, Theo gave carefully
9409
07:35:52,398 --> 07:35:58,398
worded response. I cannot comment on
9410
07:35:55,680 --> 07:36:01,440
specific operations or specific clients
9411
07:35:58,398 --> 07:36:05,120
due to classification requirements, but
9412
07:36:01,440 --> 07:36:07,360
I will say this. Tools that help protect
9413
07:36:05,120 --> 07:36:10,478
American lives and help intelligence
9414
07:36:07,360 --> 07:36:13,920
professionals do their jobs better. That
9415
07:36:10,478 --> 07:36:16,160
is our mission.
9416
07:36:13,920 --> 07:36:19,120
This single operation, this single
9417
07:36:16,160 --> 07:36:21,120
success legitimized Palanteer's entire
9418
07:36:19,120 --> 07:36:23,520
value proposition to the national
9419
07:36:21,120 --> 07:36:26,398
security establishment.
9420
07:36:23,520 --> 07:36:28,878
After bin Laden, the contracts poured
9421
07:36:26,398 --> 07:36:31,600
in.
9422
07:36:28,878 --> 07:36:34,558
After the bin Laden success, Palanteer's
9423
07:36:31,600 --> 07:36:39,120
government business exploded. Revenue
9424
07:36:34,558 --> 07:36:44,478
growth from 2012 to 2015.
9425
07:36:39,120 --> 07:36:46,398
2012, $400 million in revenue. 2013,
9426
07:36:44,478 --> 07:36:47,920
$600 million. [music]
9427
07:36:46,398 --> 07:36:53,280
2014,
9428
07:36:47,920 --> 07:36:55,760
$900 million. 2015, $1.5 billion in
9429
07:36:53,280 --> 07:36:59,398
revenue. Major new contracts [music]
9430
07:36:55,760 --> 07:36:59,398
announced publicly.
9431
07:37:00,798 --> 07:37:08,240
US Department of Defense, $222 million
9432
07:37:05,360 --> 07:37:10,000
for a 3-year data integration platform
9433
07:37:08,240 --> 07:37:14,000
contract.
9434
07:37:10,000 --> 07:37:17,120
US Army, $800 million for comprehensive
9435
07:37:14,000 --> 07:37:19,280
data platform modernization across all
9436
07:37:17,120 --> 07:37:23,440
army systems,
9437
07:37:19,280 --> 07:37:26,080
US Special Operations Command, $444
9438
07:37:23,440 --> 07:37:27,840
million for targeting and intelligence
9439
07:37:26,080 --> 07:37:31,360
fusion,
9440
07:37:27,840 --> 07:37:33,680
Department of Homeland Security, $240
9441
07:37:31,360 --> 07:37:36,798
million for border security and
9442
07:37:33,680 --> 07:37:39,200
immigration enforcement systems.
9443
07:37:36,798 --> 07:37:41,760
Palanteer had become the single most
9444
07:37:39,200 --> 07:37:43,680
important software company in the entire
9445
07:37:41,760 --> 07:37:45,280
US defense and intelligence
9446
07:37:43,680 --> 07:37:47,520
establishment,
9447
07:37:45,280 --> 07:37:50,718
more important than traditional defense
9448
07:37:47,520 --> 07:37:52,718
contractors, more embedded in classified
9449
07:37:50,718 --> 07:37:55,360
operations.
9450
07:37:52,718 --> 07:37:57,360
Simultaneously, Palunteer launched a
9451
07:37:55,360 --> 07:37:58,160
commercial product called Palunteer
9452
07:37:57,360 --> 07:38:00,958
Foundry [music]
9453
07:37:58,160 --> 07:38:04,080
for private sector clients. The sales
9454
07:38:00,958 --> 07:38:07,520
pitch to corporate America. Your company
9455
07:38:04,080 --> 07:38:10,558
has exactly the same problem as the CIA.
9456
07:38:07,520 --> 07:38:13,680
Too much data, too many incompatible
9457
07:38:10,558 --> 07:38:15,600
systems, not enough [music] insight. We
9458
07:38:13,680 --> 07:38:18,718
can help you find the patterns you are
9459
07:38:15,600 --> 07:38:22,958
missing. Major commercial clients and
9460
07:38:18,718 --> 07:38:27,360
estimated contract values.
9461
07:38:22,958 --> 07:38:29,600
JP Morgan Chase, over $100 million,
9462
07:38:27,360 --> 07:38:32,958
fraud detection and financial crime
9463
07:38:29,600 --> 07:38:35,840
prevention. Morgan Stanley over $50
9464
07:38:32,958 --> 07:38:40,638
million risk management and regulatory
9465
07:38:35,840 --> 07:38:42,798
compliance. Airbus over $75 million
9466
07:38:40,638 --> 07:38:45,520
supply chain optimization and
9467
07:38:42,798 --> 07:38:49,680
manufacturing analytics.
9468
07:38:45,520 --> 07:38:52,320
Merc Pharmaceuticals over $60 million
9469
07:38:49,680 --> 07:38:55,200
drug discovery analytics and clinical
9470
07:38:52,320 --> 07:38:59,760
trial data integration.
9471
07:38:55,200 --> 07:39:03,600
BP over $80 million oil field production
9472
07:38:59,760 --> 07:39:06,878
optimization and predictive maintenance.
9473
07:39:03,600 --> 07:39:08,718
Commercial revenue growth from 2015 to
9474
07:39:06,878 --> 07:39:12,000
2020.
9475
07:39:08,718 --> 07:39:15,680
In 2015, they got $600 million
9476
07:39:12,000 --> 07:39:20,160
commercial revenue. By 2016, the number
9477
07:39:15,680 --> 07:39:22,798
was around $800 billion. In 2017, they
9478
07:39:20,160 --> 07:39:26,240
reached $1.1 billion in commercial
9479
07:39:22,798 --> 07:39:30,160
revenue, and it became their peak year.
9480
07:39:26,240 --> 07:39:32,398
2018 made them hit the $750 million
9481
07:39:30,160 --> 07:39:35,958
mark, a temporary decline due to
9482
07:39:32,398 --> 07:39:35,958
customer churn.
9483
07:39:36,000 --> 07:39:41,760
In 2019, revenue was around $745
9484
07:39:40,160 --> 07:39:45,680
million,
9485
07:39:41,760 --> 07:39:49,680
and by 2020, they reached $1.1 billion.
9486
07:39:45,680 --> 07:39:52,798
Again, this recovery was driven by COVID
9487
07:39:49,680 --> 07:39:54,958
analytics contracts. Palanteer had
9488
07:39:52,798 --> 07:39:58,320
created a business model with two
9489
07:39:54,958 --> 07:40:00,160
enormous locked in customer bases, the
9490
07:39:58,320 --> 07:40:04,360
US government and the largest
9491
07:40:00,160 --> 07:40:04,360
corporations [music] in the world.
9492
07:40:05,920 --> 07:40:11,040
But Palanteer's work, especially for
9493
07:40:08,240 --> 07:40:14,398
government agencies, attracted intense
9494
07:40:11,040 --> 07:40:17,440
controversy and moral criticism.
9495
07:40:14,398 --> 07:40:21,520
In 2019, they secured a contract with
9496
07:40:17,440 --> 07:40:24,080
ICE for $49 million. The purpose of the
9497
07:40:21,520 --> 07:40:26,478
contract was enforcement and removal
9498
07:40:24,080 --> 07:40:29,360
operations [music] systems,
9499
07:40:26,478 --> 07:40:31,840
meaning a software used to identify,
9500
07:40:29,360 --> 07:40:34,558
track, and process undocumented
9501
07:40:31,840 --> 07:40:36,798
immigrants [music] for deportation.
9502
07:40:34,558 --> 07:40:39,520
This project came with a controversy
9503
07:40:36,798 --> 07:40:41,440
attached. The software was used during
9504
07:40:39,520 --> 07:40:44,160
the family separation [music] policy at
9505
07:40:41,440 --> 07:40:47,760
the southern border. Children separated
9506
07:40:44,160 --> 07:40:49,920
from their parents. Families torn apart.
9507
07:40:47,760 --> 07:40:52,478
Palanteer software helped make it
9508
07:40:49,920 --> 07:40:54,718
operationally [music] possible. Hundreds
9509
07:40:52,478 --> 07:40:56,398
of Palunteer employees signed an
9510
07:40:54,718 --> 07:41:00,718
internal letter demanding the [music]
9511
07:40:56,398 --> 07:41:03,040
company cancel the ICE contract.
9512
07:41:00,718 --> 07:41:05,600
They argued the company was enabling
9513
07:41:03,040 --> 07:41:09,280
human rights [music] abuses. The and
9514
07:41:05,600 --> 07:41:11,840
Karp's response, absolute refusal. The
9515
07:41:09,280 --> 07:41:14,398
contract would continue.
9516
07:41:11,840 --> 07:41:16,240
Alex Kart gave a public statement saying
9517
07:41:14,398 --> 07:41:18,398
that they had chosen [music] sides and
9518
07:41:16,240 --> 07:41:20,240
that the company supported American
9519
07:41:18,398 --> 07:41:22,718
institutions.
9520
07:41:20,240 --> 07:41:25,040
But this was not the only controversy
9521
07:41:22,718 --> 07:41:28,398
Palanteer [music] has faced.
9522
07:41:25,040 --> 07:41:31,600
Palanteer worked alongside the NYPD with
9523
07:41:28,398 --> 07:41:36,558
a contract estimated between 50 and $100
9524
07:41:31,600 --> 07:41:38,878
billion. The mission predictive policy.
9525
07:41:36,558 --> 07:41:41,440
They were asked to use historical crime
9526
07:41:38,878 --> 07:41:43,542
data to predict where future crimes will
9527
07:41:41,440 --> 07:41:46,240
occur and who is likely to commit
9528
07:41:43,542 --> 07:41:48,478
[music] them. The controversy civil
9529
07:41:46,240 --> 07:41:51,840
rights groups argued that system
9530
07:41:48,478 --> 07:41:54,958
perpetuated racial bias. Minority
9531
07:41:51,840 --> 07:41:56,558
neighborhoods were flagged as high risk.
9532
07:41:54,958 --> 07:41:58,878
Innocent people were [music] put under
9533
07:41:56,558 --> 07:42:01,280
surveillance based on algorithmic
9534
07:41:58,878 --> 07:42:04,878
predictions.
9535
07:42:01,280 --> 07:42:07,360
Joe Lndale, Palanteer co-founder, had
9536
07:42:04,878 --> 07:42:08,958
made a personal investment in Cambridge
9537
07:42:07,360 --> 07:42:11,360
Analytica.
9538
07:42:08,958 --> 07:42:13,760
Multiple Palanteer employees on their
9539
07:42:11,360 --> 07:42:18,280
own time helped Cambridge Analytica
9540
07:42:13,760 --> 07:42:18,280
build data integration models.
9541
07:42:18,398 --> 07:42:23,440
Both companies use similar approaches to
9542
07:42:21,120 --> 07:42:24,958
data harvesting and psychological
9543
07:42:23,440 --> 07:42:26,798
profiling.
9544
07:42:24,958 --> 07:42:29,680
When the connection was exposed by
9545
07:42:26,798 --> 07:42:32,718
journalists, Palanteer claimed there was
9546
07:42:29,680 --> 07:42:36,000
no institutional relationship, just
9547
07:42:32,718 --> 07:42:38,320
coincidental personal connections.
9548
07:42:36,000 --> 07:42:42,398
But the damage to Palanteer's reputation
9549
07:42:38,320 --> 07:42:44,798
was done. The had built the panoptagon,
9550
07:42:42,398 --> 07:42:47,280
the allseeing eye of corporate and
9551
07:42:44,798 --> 07:42:50,718
government surveillance.
9552
07:42:47,280 --> 07:42:53,920
September the 30th, 2020.
9553
07:42:50,718 --> 07:42:55,840
After 17 years as a private company, one
9554
07:42:53,920 --> 07:42:58,558
of the longest periods of private
9555
07:42:55,840 --> 07:43:01,520
operation for any major tech company,
9556
07:42:58,558 --> 07:43:04,558
Palanteer finally goes public through a
9557
07:43:01,520 --> 07:43:07,440
direct listing.
9558
07:43:04,558 --> 07:43:10,320
They went public at $10 per share and
9559
07:43:07,440 --> 07:43:14,000
their market capitalization at market
9560
07:43:10,320 --> 07:43:17,280
open was $16 billion.
9561
07:43:14,000 --> 07:43:19,120
By the first day, shares were down 5%.
9562
07:43:17,280 --> 07:43:20,718
The stock was initially a
9563
07:43:19,120 --> 07:43:22,798
disappointment.
9564
07:43:20,718 --> 07:43:24,798
Investors were skeptical of the business
9565
07:43:22,798 --> 07:43:27,440
model, worried about customer
9566
07:43:24,798 --> 07:43:29,520
concentration, concerned about the
9567
07:43:27,440 --> 07:43:32,638
controversy.
9568
07:43:29,520 --> 07:43:35,680
But then COVID 19 created massive new
9569
07:43:32,638 --> 07:43:39,600
demand for Palanteer's capabilities.
9570
07:43:35,680 --> 07:43:42,000
2020 to 2021, Palanteer wins enormous
9571
07:43:39,600 --> 07:43:45,120
pandemic related government contracts
9572
07:43:42,000 --> 07:43:47,280
with governments across the world. The
9573
07:43:45,120 --> 07:43:50,558
pandemic proved that governments needed
9574
07:43:47,280 --> 07:43:53,600
Palanteer and the market responded.
9575
07:43:50,558 --> 07:43:59,520
By late 2021, Palanteer stock had
9576
07:43:53,600 --> 07:44:02,000
exploded, $29 per share at 190% gain
9577
07:43:59,520 --> 07:44:03,680
from the direct listing price. Market
9578
07:44:02,000 --> 07:44:07,240
capitalization
9579
07:44:03,680 --> 07:44:07,240
$60 billion.
9580
07:44:08,398 --> 07:44:15,360
Peter Theal stake approximately 7%
9581
07:44:12,000 --> 07:44:18,160
ownership worth $4.2 billion at the
9582
07:44:15,360 --> 07:44:20,558
peak. 2022
9583
07:44:18,160 --> 07:44:24,000
the tech crash hits Palanteer brutally
9584
07:44:20,558 --> 07:44:28,080
hard. Stock prices crash to $6 per
9585
07:44:24,000 --> 07:44:31,760
share, down 8% from the peak. Market cap
9586
07:44:28,080 --> 07:44:33,840
collapses to $13 billion.
9587
07:44:31,760 --> 07:44:39,680
The paper wealth from Palanteer
9588
07:44:33,840 --> 07:44:42,362
evaporates. Billions gone. 2023 to 2024,
9589
07:44:39,680 --> 07:44:43,040
the AI boom creates new opportunity.
9590
07:44:42,362 --> 07:44:45,440
[music]
9591
07:44:43,040 --> 07:44:46,878
Palanteer markets itself as the AI
9592
07:44:45,440 --> 07:44:48,478
platform for governments and
9593
07:44:46,878 --> 07:44:51,360
enterprises.
9594
07:44:48,478 --> 07:44:56,000
And they get major new contract wins.
9595
07:44:51,360 --> 07:44:57,840
The US Army invested $463 million for AI
9596
07:44:56,000 --> 07:45:01,120
powered [music] battlefield analytics
9597
07:44:57,840 --> 07:45:03,600
and decision support systems.
9598
07:45:01,120 --> 07:45:08,320
Palanteer stock recovered
9599
07:45:03,600 --> 07:45:10,958
25 to 30 per share by 2024.
9600
07:45:08,320 --> 07:45:13,920
As of 2024, Peter Theel's current
9601
07:45:10,958 --> 07:45:16,398
Palanteer holdings are approximately 7%
9602
07:45:13,920 --> 07:45:20,478
of all shares with a current value
9603
07:45:16,398 --> 07:45:25,080
ranging from 3.8 to $4.5 billion
9604
07:45:20,478 --> 07:45:25,080
depending on daily stock price.
9605
07:45:26,638 --> 07:45:33,280
This makes Palunteer Field's single
9606
07:45:29,840 --> 07:45:35,840
largest source of personal wealth. In
9607
07:45:33,280 --> 07:45:37,840
2024, Palanteer's financial [music]
9608
07:45:35,840 --> 07:45:40,718
performance was divided between
9609
07:45:37,840 --> 07:45:44,398
government and commercial revenue. The
9610
07:45:40,718 --> 07:45:47,600
company's net income was $2.5 billion
9611
07:45:44,398 --> 07:45:49,520
annually. And as big as the number is,
9612
07:45:47,600 --> 07:45:52,080
this might represent a future problem
9613
07:45:49,520 --> 07:45:54,638
for the company. If government budget
9614
07:45:52,080 --> 07:45:56,160
cuts happen, Palanteer is extremely
9615
07:45:54,638 --> 07:45:58,398
vulnerable.
9616
07:45:56,160 --> 07:46:01,520
Their entire business model depends on
9617
07:45:58,398 --> 07:46:03,680
continued government spending.
9618
07:46:01,520 --> 07:46:05,200
Here is Peter Theel's fundamental
9619
07:46:03,680 --> 07:46:07,200
contradiction.
9620
07:46:05,200 --> 07:46:09,120
The paradox at the heart of everything
9621
07:46:07,200 --> 07:46:11,360
he has built. He claims to be a
9622
07:46:09,120 --> 07:46:14,638
libertarian who values individual
9623
07:46:11,360 --> 07:46:16,320
freedom above all else. A man who
9624
07:46:14,638 --> 07:46:18,718
believes government power should be
9625
07:46:16,320 --> 07:46:21,920
minimal. A man who wrote that freedom
9626
07:46:18,718 --> 07:46:24,478
and democracy are incompatible.
9627
07:46:21,920 --> 07:46:27,120
Yet he built the most powerful private
9628
07:46:24,478 --> 07:46:29,920
surveillance technology company in human
9629
07:46:27,120 --> 07:46:31,680
history. A company that gives [music]
9630
07:46:29,920 --> 07:46:35,120
governments and corporations
9631
07:46:31,680 --> 07:46:38,398
unprecedented ability to monitor, track,
9632
07:46:35,120 --> 07:46:40,798
predict, and control human behavior.
9633
07:46:38,398 --> 07:46:43,760
Palanteer's technical capabilities
9634
07:46:40,798 --> 07:46:46,160
include realtime tracking of individuals
9635
07:46:43,760 --> 07:46:49,160
across multiple data sources and
9636
07:46:46,160 --> 07:46:49,160
databases.
9637
07:46:49,760 --> 07:46:54,398
Predictive behavioral modeling that
9638
07:46:52,398 --> 07:46:57,680
forecasts what people will do before
9639
07:46:54,398 --> 07:47:00,080
they do it. Network analysis that maps
9640
07:46:57,680 --> 07:47:03,520
every person you have ever contacted
9641
07:47:00,080 --> 07:47:05,440
through any medium. Complete integration
9642
07:47:03,520 --> 07:47:08,160
of financial records. [music]
9643
07:47:05,440 --> 07:47:11,120
communication metadata, location
9644
07:47:08,160 --> 07:47:14,958
history, and social relationship data
9645
07:47:11,120 --> 07:47:17,520
into a single unified profile.
9646
07:47:14,958 --> 07:47:19,840
Field's defense of this contradiction
9647
07:47:17,520 --> 07:47:24,080
was explaining that the alternative to
9648
07:47:19,840 --> 07:47:26,638
Palanteer is not no surveillance.
9649
07:47:24,080 --> 07:47:28,878
The alternative is worse surveillance
9650
07:47:26,638 --> 07:47:31,840
performed by incompetent government
9651
07:47:28,878 --> 07:47:35,958
bureaucrats using decades old technology
9652
07:47:31,840 --> 07:47:35,958
that does not work properly.
9653
07:47:37,440 --> 07:47:44,000
The critics's response was obvious. They
9654
07:47:40,398 --> 07:47:48,160
told Theo he had built the panopticon,
9655
07:47:44,000 --> 07:47:50,240
the architecture of total surveillance.
9656
07:47:48,160 --> 07:47:52,478
A system allowing governments around the
9657
07:47:50,240 --> 07:47:55,440
world to use their citizens information
9658
07:47:52,478 --> 07:47:57,920
to control them, not a system to protect
9659
07:47:55,440 --> 07:48:00,080
them, said the critics.
9660
07:47:57,920 --> 07:48:02,638
Palanteer now operates in [music] dozens
9661
07:48:00,080 --> 07:48:05,200
of countries worldwide. the United
9662
07:48:02,638 --> 07:48:08,878
States, the United Kingdom, Germany,
9663
07:48:05,200 --> 07:48:11,040
France, Australia, and even Japan.
9664
07:48:08,878 --> 07:48:14,080
The company has some controversial
9665
07:48:11,040 --> 07:48:17,040
international clients, some confirmed,
9666
07:48:14,080 --> 07:48:20,558
some alleged, but the total estimated
9667
07:48:17,040 --> 07:48:25,040
value of all global contracts lifetime,
9668
07:48:20,558 --> 07:48:27,840
over $10 billion in contract value.
9669
07:48:25,040 --> 07:48:30,958
Palanteer is Peter Theel's most
9670
07:48:27,840 --> 07:48:34,080
important company. Not because of its
9671
07:48:30,958 --> 07:48:36,478
valuation, though that is substantial.
9672
07:48:34,080 --> 07:48:40,160
Not because of its revenue, though that
9673
07:48:36,478 --> 07:48:42,478
is significant. Palanteer is important
9674
07:48:40,160 --> 07:48:45,440
because it reveals the truth about
9675
07:48:42,478 --> 07:48:48,080
Theo's worldview. It is the bridge
9676
07:48:45,440 --> 07:48:51,760
between his libertarian philosophy and
9677
07:48:48,080 --> 07:48:54,718
his authoritarian reality. He claims to
9678
07:48:51,760 --> 07:48:57,440
want freedom from government control.
9679
07:48:54,718 --> 07:48:59,600
But Palanteer gives governments
9680
07:48:57,440 --> 07:49:02,240
unprecedented control over their
9681
07:48:59,600 --> 07:49:05,280
citizens. The resolution of this
9682
07:49:02,240 --> 07:49:08,638
apparent contradiction, Peter Theel
9683
07:49:05,280 --> 07:49:12,718
believes in freedom for the elite and
9684
07:49:08,638 --> 07:49:14,958
surveillance for everyone else.
9685
07:49:12,718 --> 07:49:18,240
In his vision of the world, there are
9686
07:49:14,958 --> 07:49:20,398
rulers and there are the ruled. There
9687
07:49:18,240 --> 07:49:23,120
are the people who make the decisions
9688
07:49:20,398 --> 07:49:25,680
and the people who are managed.
9689
07:49:23,120 --> 07:49:29,040
Palanteer is the enforcement mechanism
9690
07:49:25,680 --> 07:49:32,320
for that hierarchy. The technology that
9691
07:49:29,040 --> 07:49:34,558
ensures the rulers can see everything.
9692
07:49:32,320 --> 07:49:37,600
The system that makes resistance
9693
07:49:34,558 --> 07:49:40,718
impossible because privacy no longer
9694
07:49:37,600 --> 07:49:44,000
exists. And Peter Theal sits at the
9695
07:49:40,718 --> 07:49:47,120
center of that eye, watching the world,
9696
07:49:44,000 --> 07:49:50,840
seeing everything. The architect of the
9697
07:49:47,120 --> 07:49:50,840
surveillance state.
9698
07:49:53,280 --> 07:49:59,040
In 2016, Peter Theal made an investment
9699
07:49:57,040 --> 07:50:02,058
that every other major technology
9700
07:49:59,040 --> 07:50:02,058
investor avoided. [music]
9701
07:50:02,398 --> 07:50:06,590
While his peers in Silicon Valley were
9702
07:50:04,718 --> 07:50:09,280
contributing millions to the opposing
9703
07:50:06,590 --> 07:50:12,160
[music] campaign, Theel wrote a check
9704
07:50:09,280 --> 07:50:14,958
for $1.25 million to [music] Donald
9705
07:50:12,160 --> 07:50:17,070
Trump's presidential campaign.
9706
07:50:14,958 --> 07:50:17,120
This was not ideology.
9707
07:50:17,070 --> 07:50:21,360
>> [music]
9708
07:50:17,120 --> 07:50:24,478
>> This was portfolio diversification.
9709
07:50:21,360 --> 07:50:29,120
Phil has always invested in contrarian
9710
07:50:24,478 --> 07:50:31,840
positions. When everyone zigs, he zags.
9711
07:50:29,120 --> 07:50:33,840
When consensus forms in one direction,
9712
07:50:31,840 --> 07:50:37,280
he looks for [music] asymmetric
9713
07:50:33,840 --> 07:50:39,200
opportunities in the other. The 2006
9714
07:50:37,280 --> 07:50:41,760
donation [music] gave him something
9715
07:50:39,200 --> 07:50:44,558
money usually cannot buy in Silicon
9716
07:50:41,760 --> 07:50:47,920
Valley. Direct access [music] to
9717
07:50:44,558 --> 07:50:51,440
executive power. the return on that
9718
07:50:47,920 --> 07:50:54,080
$1.25 million investment,
9719
07:50:51,440 --> 07:50:57,520
a seat on the presidential transition
9720
07:50:54,080 --> 07:51:00,718
team, input on federal technology
9721
07:50:57,520 --> 07:51:03,520
policy, direct communication channels to
9722
07:51:00,718 --> 07:51:06,904
the White House, credibility as a
9723
07:51:03,520 --> 07:51:06,904
Washington power broker, [music]
9724
07:51:07,040 --> 07:51:11,440
and most measurably, Palanteer's
9725
07:51:09,680 --> 07:51:14,878
government contracts increased [music]
9726
07:51:11,440 --> 07:51:17,200
substantially during this period.
9727
07:51:14,878 --> 07:51:19,920
But feels most significant political
9728
07:51:17,200 --> 07:51:22,000
investments [music] came in the 2022
9729
07:51:19,920 --> 07:51:25,760
midterm elections.
9730
07:51:22,000 --> 07:51:29,280
Two candidates, both former employees,
9731
07:51:25,760 --> 07:51:31,200
both running for United States Senate.
9732
07:51:29,280 --> 07:51:34,080
The financial commitment was
9733
07:51:31,200 --> 07:51:36,478
unprecedented in scale.
9734
07:51:34,080 --> 07:51:38,638
Vance had worked at Theel's venture
9735
07:51:36,478 --> 07:51:41,680
capital firm before writing his
9736
07:51:38,638 --> 07:51:43,760
best-selling memoir. Field's total
9737
07:51:41,680 --> 07:51:48,718
financial commitment
9738
07:51:43,760 --> 07:51:52,638
direct campaign contribution $15 million
9739
07:51:48,718 --> 07:51:56,398
super PAC expenditures $5 million
9740
07:51:52,638 --> 07:51:59,120
combined investment $20 million.
9741
07:51:56,398 --> 07:52:01,440
This set a [music] record as the largest
9742
07:51:59,120 --> 07:52:03,440
single donor contribution to an
9743
07:52:01,440 --> 07:52:07,360
individual Senate campaign in [music]
9744
07:52:03,440 --> 07:52:11,200
American history. The outcome, Vance won
9745
07:52:07,360 --> 07:52:13,520
by six percentage points. Masters had
9746
07:52:11,200 --> 07:52:15,600
worked directly for Theel as chief
9747
07:52:13,520 --> 07:52:17,120
operating [music] officer at Theel
9748
07:52:15,600 --> 07:52:19,120
Capital.
9749
07:52:17,120 --> 07:52:21,440
Theel's financial commitment to his
9750
07:52:19,120 --> 07:52:25,280
campaign was a combined investment of
9751
07:52:21,440 --> 07:52:28,398
$20 million, but unlike Vance, Masters
9752
07:52:25,280 --> 07:52:31,680
lost by 5 percentage points.
9753
07:52:28,398 --> 07:52:34,558
Theel's total 2022 midterm investment
9754
07:52:31,680 --> 07:52:37,440
was over $40 million in two Senate
9755
07:52:34,558 --> 07:52:39,440
races. Two different candidates that
9756
07:52:37,440 --> 07:52:41,520
would have allowed him to be in direct
9757
07:52:39,440 --> 07:52:44,878
touch with power at different chambers
9758
07:52:41,520 --> 07:52:46,878
and stages. For context, the average
9759
07:52:44,878 --> 07:52:50,478
competitive Senate race costs
9760
07:52:46,878 --> 07:52:52,398
approximately $10 million total. Peter
9761
07:52:50,478 --> 07:52:56,440
Theal invested four times that [music]
9762
07:52:52,398 --> 07:52:56,440
amount on two races.
9763
07:52:57,120 --> 07:53:03,840
It's July 2024. JD Vance is selected as
9764
07:53:01,680 --> 07:53:06,718
the Republican vice presidential
9765
07:53:03,840 --> 07:53:09,360
candidate. From a pure investment
9766
07:53:06,718 --> 07:53:12,320
analysis perspective, this transforms
9767
07:53:09,360 --> 07:53:14,798
the return profile on Theo's $20 million
9768
07:53:12,320 --> 07:53:17,120
commitment. He has considered the
9769
07:53:14,798 --> 07:53:21,040
potential financial implications if this
9770
07:53:17,120 --> 07:53:23,600
ticket wins and he gets access to
9771
07:53:21,040 --> 07:53:26,958
executive branch decisionmaking for 8
9772
07:53:23,600 --> 07:53:30,398
years. influence over federal contract
9773
07:53:26,958 --> 07:53:33,360
allocation across multiple agencies.
9774
07:53:30,398 --> 07:53:37,600
Input on technology regulation affecting
9775
07:53:33,360 --> 07:53:39,920
the portfolio companies.
9776
07:53:37,600 --> 07:53:42,000
If we consider what's the estimated
9777
07:53:39,920 --> 07:53:43,440
return on investment for Palanteer's
9778
07:53:42,000 --> 07:53:46,718
government business, [music]
9779
07:53:43,440 --> 07:53:50,398
what we see is current annual government
9780
07:53:46,718 --> 07:53:53,120
revenue of $1.5 billion.
9781
07:53:50,398 --> 07:53:56,398
potential additional contract value over
9782
07:53:53,120 --> 07:53:59,398
eight years conservatively 5 to10
9783
07:53:56,398 --> 07:53:59,398
billion
9784
07:53:59,440 --> 07:54:06,080
and other defense companies in the
9785
07:54:02,478 --> 07:54:07,760
network potential 3 to5 billion in
9786
07:54:06,080 --> 07:54:10,240
contracts
9787
07:54:07,760 --> 07:54:12,878
regulatory treatment of cryptocurrency
9788
07:54:10,240 --> 07:54:16,760
holdings value [music] potentially in
9789
07:54:12,878 --> 07:54:16,760
tens of billions.
9790
07:54:18,478 --> 07:54:24,558
The theoretical return of those 20
9791
07:54:21,040 --> 07:54:27,920
million invested is potentially 15 to 20
9792
07:54:24,558 --> 07:54:31,920
billion captured across the portfolio.
9793
07:54:27,920 --> 07:54:35,600
That represents a potential of 750 to
9794
07:54:31,920 --> 07:54:37,280
1,000 times return. By comparison,
9795
07:54:35,600 --> 07:54:40,240
Theel's Facebook investment [music]
9796
07:54:37,280 --> 07:54:42,718
returned 2,000 times.
9797
07:54:40,240 --> 07:54:48,080
To sum it up, the complete political
9798
07:54:42,718 --> 07:54:50,398
spending of the from 2016 to 2022 is 70
9799
07:54:48,080 --> 07:54:53,360
to $80 million.
9800
07:54:50,398 --> 07:54:56,638
For context, Amazon spends 20 million
9801
07:54:53,360 --> 07:54:58,878
annually on lobbying. Meta spends 20
9802
07:54:56,638 --> 07:55:01,680
million annual on lobbying. [music]
9803
07:54:58,878 --> 07:55:05,280
Google spends 12 million annually on
9804
07:55:01,680 --> 07:55:07,280
lobbying. Field's approach is different.
9805
07:55:05,280 --> 07:55:09,920
Rather than ongoing lobbying
9806
07:55:07,280 --> 07:55:12,718
expenditures, he makes concentrated
9807
07:55:09,920 --> 07:55:15,920
investments in individual candidates who
9808
07:55:12,718 --> 07:55:18,920
potentially provide access for years or
9809
07:55:15,920 --> 07:55:18,920
decades.
9810
07:55:18,958 --> 07:55:24,000
It is the venture capital model applied
9811
07:55:21,440 --> 07:55:26,958
to politics. Make early stage
9812
07:55:24,000 --> 07:55:29,440
investments in promising candidates.
9813
07:55:26,958 --> 07:55:32,718
Provide sufficient capital to help them
9814
07:55:29,440 --> 07:55:35,280
win. Capture value through long-term
9815
07:55:32,718 --> 07:55:37,920
relationships and access.
9816
07:55:35,280 --> 07:55:40,718
The candidates Theel has supported now
9817
07:55:37,920 --> 07:55:43,200
serve on key committees.
9818
07:55:40,718 --> 07:55:44,798
Technology regulation, defense
9819
07:55:43,200 --> 07:55:47,680
appropriations,
9820
07:55:44,798 --> 07:55:50,478
intelligence oversight, banking and
9821
07:55:47,680 --> 07:55:52,718
financial services.
9822
07:55:50,478 --> 07:55:55,200
Precisely the committees that oversee
9823
07:55:52,718 --> 07:55:57,280
industries where the has billions
9824
07:55:55,200 --> 07:56:00,398
invested and where he can [music] use
9825
07:55:57,280 --> 07:56:03,040
some privileged information.
9826
07:56:00,398 --> 07:56:08,160
Is political investment a good use of
9827
07:56:03,040 --> 07:56:11,280
capital? The mathematics suggest yes 70
9828
07:56:08,160 --> 07:56:14,718
to 80 million represents less than 1% of
9829
07:56:11,280 --> 07:56:16,718
the's net worth. The potential return if
9830
07:56:14,718 --> 07:56:19,520
facets translate to favorable [music]
9831
07:56:16,718 --> 07:56:23,120
treatment for portfolio companies could
9832
07:56:19,520 --> 07:56:25,520
be worth billions. Even with a 50%
9833
07:56:23,120 --> 07:56:28,398
success rate, the expected value is
9834
07:56:25,520 --> 07:56:31,520
positive by orders of magnitude.
9835
07:56:28,398 --> 07:56:35,520
Investment 70 to 80 million over 8
9836
07:56:31,520 --> 07:56:38,798
years. Potential value captured 15 to 30
9837
07:56:35,520 --> 07:56:45,280
billion across portfolio. Expected
9838
07:56:38,798 --> 07:56:47,840
return 200 to 400 times invested capital
9839
07:56:45,280 --> 07:56:51,040
that rivals the best venture capital
9840
07:56:47,840 --> 07:56:54,320
returns in history. Peter Theel is not
9841
07:56:51,040 --> 07:56:57,320
playing politics. He is optimizing his
9842
07:56:54,320 --> 07:56:57,320
portfolio.
9843
07:56:58,638 --> 07:57:04,558
Chapter 7. The final exit.
9844
07:57:02,478 --> 07:57:07,360
Peter Theal has spent his life betting
9845
07:57:04,558 --> 07:57:09,920
on the future, building it, funding it,
9846
07:57:07,360 --> 07:57:13,840
accelerating it. But there is one
9847
07:57:09,920 --> 07:57:18,638
frontier he refuses to accept as fixed.
9848
07:57:13,840 --> 07:57:21,200
Death. To him, mortality is not destiny.
9849
07:57:18,638 --> 07:57:23,520
It is an engineering problem waiting for
9850
07:57:21,200 --> 07:57:25,680
a breakthrough. Unlike every other
9851
07:57:23,520 --> 07:57:28,878
system he has challenged, he believes
9852
07:57:25,680 --> 07:57:31,520
this one too can be redesigned.
9853
07:57:28,878 --> 07:57:34,638
While others plan for retirement, Theel
9854
07:57:31,520 --> 07:57:37,200
funds longevity labs. While governments
9855
07:57:34,638 --> 07:57:38,718
plan for decades, he thinks in
9856
07:57:37,200 --> 07:57:40,240
centuries.
9857
07:57:38,718 --> 07:57:42,878
If time is the ultimate [music]
9858
07:57:40,240 --> 07:57:46,080
constraint on power, then extending life
9859
07:57:42,878 --> 07:57:49,520
is the ultimate leverage. At the edge of
9860
07:57:46,080 --> 07:57:52,240
the world, he built a refuge. Far from
9861
07:57:49,520 --> 07:57:56,798
political centers, far from social
9862
07:57:52,240 --> 07:57:59,120
unrest, close only to time. In Silicon
9863
07:57:56,798 --> 07:58:02,718
Valley, there is a dark joke shared
9864
07:57:59,120 --> 07:58:04,878
quietly among founders and investors.
9865
07:58:02,718 --> 07:58:07,360
How many billionaires does it take to
9866
07:58:04,878 --> 07:58:10,398
buy a country?
9867
07:58:07,360 --> 07:58:13,798
Just one, if he is smart enough to get
9868
07:58:10,398 --> 07:58:13,798
there first.
9869
07:58:14,160 --> 07:58:18,798
He invested in digital currencies that
9870
07:58:16,478 --> 07:58:20,878
governments cannot print. In
9871
07:58:18,798 --> 07:58:23,760
surveillance systems that see what
9872
07:58:20,878 --> 07:58:26,240
others cannot. In political candidates
9873
07:58:23,760 --> 07:58:28,878
who might shape the rules. In
9874
07:58:26,240 --> 07:58:32,558
technologies that might outlive biology
9875
07:58:28,878 --> 07:58:36,200
itself. Not to save the world, to
9876
07:58:32,558 --> 07:58:36,200
outlast it.
9877
07:58:38,160 --> 07:58:43,680
What began as a contingency plan for a
9878
07:58:40,798 --> 07:58:46,478
few has become an unspoken strategy
9879
07:58:43,680 --> 07:58:48,878
among the ultra wealthy.
9880
07:58:46,478 --> 07:58:51,440
When the New Zealand citizenship story
9881
07:58:48,878 --> 07:58:55,040
became public, one of Theo's closest
9882
07:58:51,440 --> 07:58:57,800
peers, Samman, put it bluntly.
9883
07:58:55,040 --> 07:59:00,798
If things go really wrong, I'm flying to
9884
07:58:57,800 --> 07:59:04,000
[music] Peter's place.
9885
07:59:00,798 --> 07:59:07,200
Some men try to make history. Peter
9886
07:59:04,000 --> 07:59:10,000
Theel is trying to escape it.
9887
07:59:07,200 --> 07:59:12,320
And if the future breaks, he intends to
9888
07:59:10,000 --> 07:59:15,320
be standing [music] somewhere it cannot
9889
07:59:12,320 --> 07:59:15,320
reach.
9890
08:00:41,040 --> 08:00:46,080
Most people see this and think culture.
9891
08:00:44,000 --> 08:00:48,478
They see a charming eco-friendly
9892
08:00:46,080 --> 08:00:51,280
tradition.
9893
08:00:48,478 --> 08:00:53,680
But look closer. This isn't just people
9894
08:00:51,280 --> 08:00:56,240
liking to pedal. What you were watching
9895
08:00:53,680 --> 08:00:58,080
is a highfrequency, low friction
9896
08:00:56,240 --> 08:00:59,920
economic machine.
9897
08:00:58,080 --> 08:01:01,920
>> Ultimately, private car ownership is
9898
08:00:59,920 --> 08:01:03,520
going to become obsolete. Cities are
9899
08:01:01,920 --> 08:01:05,200
building for pedestrians. They're
9900
08:01:03,520 --> 08:01:08,638
building for cycling. They're building
9901
08:01:05,200 --> 08:01:11,280
for livability, not for cars.
9902
08:01:08,638 --> 08:01:15,240
>> The bike economy, the multi-billion
9903
08:01:11,280 --> 08:01:15,240
dollar system of Amsterdam.
9904
08:01:16,398 --> 08:01:23,200
In Amsterdam, the bicycle isn't a toy.
9905
08:01:19,840 --> 08:01:26,080
It is a critical urban infrastructure.
9906
08:01:23,200 --> 08:01:30,520
If this system failed today, the city's
9907
08:01:26,080 --> 08:01:30,520
economy would collapse tomorrow.
9908
08:01:30,638 --> 08:01:35,760
For decades, the world has viewed
9909
08:01:32,558 --> 08:01:38,958
Amsterdam through a romantic lens. But
9910
08:01:35,760 --> 08:01:41,600
cities don't run on vibes. They run on
9911
08:01:38,958 --> 08:01:43,520
systems. And when a system moves
9912
08:01:41,600 --> 08:01:46,478
hundreds of thousands of people every
9913
08:01:43,520 --> 08:01:49,680
single day, it stops being a choice and
9914
08:01:46,478 --> 08:01:52,478
starts demanding three things. space,
9915
08:01:49,680 --> 08:01:54,718
rules, and capital.
9916
08:01:52,478 --> 08:01:56,878
Research shows that the cycling system
9917
08:01:54,718 --> 08:01:59,040
contributes benefits equivalent to
9918
08:01:56,878 --> 08:02:00,558
roughly 3% [music] of the Netherlands
9919
08:01:59,040 --> 08:02:03,440
GDP.
9920
08:02:00,558 --> 08:02:06,320
This isn't just green energy. It's hard
9921
08:02:03,440 --> 08:02:08,878
cash saved in public health, reduced
9922
08:02:06,320 --> 08:02:10,558
absenteeism at work, and most
9923
08:02:08,878 --> 08:02:13,360
importantly, [music] unlocked
9924
08:02:10,558 --> 08:02:16,080
productivity. Every person on a bike is
9925
08:02:13,360 --> 08:02:19,040
a person who isn't taking up 12 square
9926
08:02:16,080 --> 08:02:21,280
meters of public space with a car. That
9927
08:02:19,040 --> 08:02:23,600
freed up space [music] allows for high
9928
08:02:21,280 --> 08:02:26,558
value real estate, commerce, and
9929
08:02:23,600 --> 08:02:31,160
tourism. In economics, we call this
9930
08:02:26,558 --> 08:02:31,160
optimization of land use.
9931
08:02:32,638 --> 08:02:39,440
But success created a crisis. By the
9932
08:02:36,000 --> 08:02:41,520
2010s, Amsterdam had a clutter problem.
9933
08:02:39,440 --> 08:02:44,958
Thousands of bikes were choking the
9934
08:02:41,520 --> 08:02:47,040
streets. The solution, one of the most
9935
08:02:44,958 --> 08:02:50,160
expensive [music] and daring engineering
9936
08:02:47,040 --> 08:02:53,920
projects in the city. They built a
9937
08:02:50,160 --> 08:02:55,520
cathedral for 7,000 bicycles under the
9938
08:02:53,920 --> 08:02:58,160
water.
9939
08:02:55,520 --> 08:03:00,240
It cost millions. From a traditional
9940
08:02:58,160 --> 08:03:01,440
linear perspective, spending that much
9941
08:03:00,240 --> 08:03:04,160
on free parking [music]
9942
08:03:01,440 --> 08:03:06,398
seems insane. But from a circular
9943
08:03:04,160 --> 08:03:08,160
economy perspective, a model where
9944
08:03:06,398 --> 08:03:11,920
Amsterdam is a [music] global leader
9945
08:03:08,160 --> 08:03:14,638
with 30.6% circularity rate, it was a
9946
08:03:11,920 --> 08:03:16,798
mandatory investment. As we see in the
9947
08:03:14,638 --> 08:03:19,440
latest urban governance reports, [music]
9948
08:03:16,798 --> 08:03:22,000
planning isn't an option here. It's the
9949
08:03:19,440 --> 08:03:23,920
only way to exist.
9950
08:03:22,000 --> 08:03:26,718
In this documentary, we are [music]
9951
08:03:23,920 --> 08:03:30,398
going beyond the postcard. We will
9952
08:03:26,718 --> 08:03:33,600
travel back to 1965 to see why the first
9953
08:03:30,398 --> 08:03:36,080
sharing economy experiment failed. We
9954
08:03:33,600 --> 08:03:37,360
will use scientific GPS data to track
9955
08:03:36,080 --> 08:03:40,878
the shadow economy [music]
9956
08:03:37,360 --> 08:03:43,440
of the 80,000 bikes stolen every year.
9957
08:03:40,878 --> 08:03:45,350
And we will explore how Amsterdam is
9958
08:03:43,440 --> 08:03:48,878
using the bicycle to become the world's
9959
08:03:45,350 --> 08:03:52,320
[music] first 100% circular city by
9960
08:03:48,878 --> 08:03:54,398
2050. This is the story of how a humble
9961
08:03:52,320 --> 08:03:57,200
machine with two wheels became the
9962
08:03:54,398 --> 08:04:00,200
backbone of a multi-billion dollar urban
9963
08:03:57,200 --> 08:04:00,200
miracle.
9964
08:04:02,878 --> 08:04:08,958
To understand why Amsterdam spends €85
9965
08:04:05,840 --> 08:04:11,440
million on underwater parking today, we
9966
08:04:08,958 --> 08:04:14,718
have to go back to a time when the city
9967
08:04:11,440 --> 08:04:17,718
almost lost its soul to the car, the
9968
08:04:14,718 --> 08:04:17,718
1960s.
9969
08:04:21,920 --> 08:04:26,478
As postwar prosperity grew, Amsterdam
9970
08:04:24,958 --> 08:04:28,240
was being choked by [music] motor
9971
08:04:26,478 --> 08:04:30,398
vehicles.
9972
08:04:28,240 --> 08:04:32,478
In response, a counterculture group
9973
08:04:30,398 --> 08:04:35,040
called the Provos launched what would
9974
08:04:32,478 --> 08:04:38,798
become the first bike sharing program in
9975
08:04:35,040 --> 08:04:40,878
history, the Vita Fien Plan or the white
9976
08:04:38,798 --> 08:04:42,990
bike plan.
9977
08:04:40,878 --> 08:04:43,520
Their proposal was radical and purely
9978
08:04:42,990 --> 08:04:47,600
[music]
9979
08:04:43,520 --> 08:04:49,840
idealistic. Paint 20,000 bicycles white,
9980
08:04:47,600 --> 08:04:52,160
leave them unlocked across the city, and
9981
08:04:49,840 --> 08:04:55,680
let anyone use them for free. [music]
9982
08:04:52,160 --> 08:04:58,638
No keys, no coins, no owners. They
9983
08:04:55,680 --> 08:05:00,878
viewed mobility as a public good, as
9984
08:04:58,638 --> 08:05:03,360
essential and free as the air we
9985
08:05:00,878 --> 08:05:06,958
breathe. On paper, [music] it was a
9986
08:05:03,360 --> 08:05:09,440
circular economy. Avon Plletra. In
9987
08:05:06,958 --> 08:05:12,878
practice, it [music] was a disaster.
9988
08:05:09,440 --> 08:05:14,478
Within days, the system collapsed. Why?
9989
08:05:12,878 --> 08:05:16,394
Because the province ignored a
9990
08:05:14,478 --> 08:05:17,040
fundamental principle of economics,
9991
08:05:16,394 --> 08:05:21,320
[music]
9992
08:05:17,040 --> 08:05:21,320
the tragedy of the commons.
9993
08:05:39,200 --> 08:05:42,200
for
9994
08:05:56,798 --> 08:06:01,600
without ownership or registration.
9995
08:05:58,958 --> 08:06:04,210
Public property quickly became nobody's
9996
08:06:01,600 --> 08:06:06,240
property. In an unregulated system
9997
08:06:04,210 --> 08:06:08,080
[music] with zero entry cost, the
9998
08:06:06,240 --> 08:06:10,320
incentive to maintain the asset
9999
08:06:08,080 --> 08:06:12,878
disappears. Without locks or
10000
08:06:10,320 --> 08:06:15,760
registration, public property quickly
10001
08:06:12,878 --> 08:06:17,310
became nobody's property. The police
10002
08:06:15,760 --> 08:06:20,080
confiscated the bikes because they
10003
08:06:17,310 --> 08:06:22,718
[music] invited theft and the citizens
10004
08:06:20,080 --> 08:06:24,320
driven by individual rationalism either
10005
08:06:22,718 --> 08:06:27,440
took them home [music] or threw them
10006
08:06:24,320 --> 08:06:30,160
into the canals.
10007
08:06:27,440 --> 08:06:31,920
The lesson was harsh. You cannot have a
10008
08:06:30,160 --> 08:06:34,558
massive urban transit system [music]
10009
08:06:31,920 --> 08:06:38,280
based solely on romanticism.
10010
08:06:34,558 --> 08:06:38,280
You need governance.
10011
08:06:39,920 --> 08:06:46,000
However, the white bikes planted a seed.
10012
08:06:42,958 --> 08:06:47,760
It shifted the economic debate. The city
10013
08:06:46,000 --> 08:06:50,000
realized that if they didn't want to
10014
08:06:47,760 --> 08:06:52,558
spend billions on highways like Los
10015
08:06:50,000 --> 08:06:55,360
Angeles or London, they had to invest in
10016
08:06:52,558 --> 08:06:57,680
a different kind of capital. Transition
10017
08:06:55,360 --> 08:07:00,718
requires not just technology but a
10018
08:06:57,680 --> 08:07:02,506
change in urban metabolism.
10019
08:07:00,718 --> 08:07:04,718
The failure of the white bikes taught
10020
08:07:02,506 --> 08:07:07,040
[music] Amsterdam that the bicycle had
10021
08:07:04,718 --> 08:07:10,160
to be integrated into the formal economy
10022
08:07:07,040 --> 08:07:14,080
of the city, not as a rebel symbol, but
10023
08:07:10,160 --> 08:07:16,080
as a regulated, taxed and planned asset.
10024
08:07:14,080 --> 08:07:18,798
Today, the free spirit of the white
10025
08:07:16,080 --> 08:07:21,680
bikes only survives in one place, the
10026
08:07:18,798 --> 08:07:23,840
Hoga Valuve National Park. But [music]
10027
08:07:21,680 --> 08:07:26,240
in the city, the white bike has been
10028
08:07:23,840 --> 08:07:29,280
replaced by a sophisticated capital
10029
08:07:26,240 --> 08:07:31,200
incentive model. We no longer trust in
10030
08:07:29,280 --> 08:07:34,478
the [music] goodness of the user. We
10031
08:07:31,200 --> 08:07:36,798
trust in incentives. We move the tragedy
10032
08:07:34,478 --> 08:07:40,000
of the commons to a system of managed
10033
08:07:36,798 --> 08:07:43,120
common pool resources. In economics,
10034
08:07:40,000 --> 08:07:45,840
success can be as disruptive as failure.
10035
08:07:43,120 --> 08:07:48,398
By the late 2010s, Amsterdam was a
10036
08:07:45,840 --> 08:07:50,798
victim of its own efficiency. With
10037
08:07:48,398 --> 08:07:53,120
nearly 1 million bicycles in the city,
10038
08:07:50,798 --> 08:07:56,240
the urban surface had reached a breaking
10039
08:07:53,120 --> 08:08:00,320
point. Every bridge, railing, and
10040
08:07:56,240 --> 08:08:02,878
sidewalk was occupied by idle metal.
10041
08:08:00,320 --> 08:08:06,000
This wasn't just an aesthetic grievance.
10042
08:08:02,878 --> 08:08:08,398
It was an economic bottleneck. Thousands
10043
08:08:06,000 --> 08:08:09,200
of parked bikes were clogging the city's
10044
08:08:08,398 --> 08:08:12,080
arteries, [music]
10045
08:08:09,200 --> 08:08:14,958
slowing down 200,000 daily commuters at
10046
08:08:12,080 --> 08:08:17,680
Central Station. In one of the world's
10047
08:08:14,958 --> 08:08:20,000
most expensive real estate markets, free
10048
08:08:17,680 --> 08:08:22,398
surface parking is a luxury that a
10049
08:08:20,000 --> 08:08:24,798
functional city cannot [music] afford.
10050
08:08:22,398 --> 08:08:27,840
The opportunity cost of that space was
10051
08:08:24,798 --> 08:08:31,280
becoming too high. To solve this,
10052
08:08:27,840 --> 08:08:34,240
Amsterdam launched the entre, a massive
10053
08:08:31,280 --> 08:08:37,200
urban reconfiguration project. The crown
10054
08:08:34,240 --> 08:08:38,878
jewel, the open haven underwater
10055
08:08:37,200 --> 08:08:41,360
parking.
10056
08:08:38,878 --> 08:08:45,040
Consider that figure. spending [music]
10057
08:08:41,360 --> 08:08:46,558
€60 million just to store 7,000 bicycles
10058
08:08:45,040 --> 08:08:48,958
underwater.
10059
08:08:46,558 --> 08:08:52,080
To a traditional accountant, this looks
10060
08:08:48,958 --> 08:08:54,798
like a massive sunk cost. But to an
10061
08:08:52,080 --> 08:08:58,478
urban economist, it's a master stroke of
10062
08:08:54,798 --> 08:09:00,798
asset management. By moving 7,000 bikes
10063
08:08:58,478 --> 08:09:03,680
beneath the water, the city performed
10064
08:09:00,798 --> 08:09:05,600
open heart surgery on its central hub.
10065
08:09:03,680 --> 08:09:08,878
They reclaimed the surface, restoring
10066
08:09:05,600 --> 08:09:11,280
the landscape to its 1900's aesthetic.
10067
08:09:08,878 --> 08:09:14,478
This isn't just about beauty. It's about
10068
08:09:11,280 --> 08:09:16,798
maximizing pedestrian flow. A station
10069
08:09:14,478 --> 08:09:19,360
that breathes and flows is a station
10070
08:09:16,798 --> 08:09:22,478
that generates higher economic value for
10071
08:09:19,360 --> 08:09:25,440
the surrounding businesses. However, an
10072
08:09:22,478 --> 08:09:27,360
85 million euro asset must be managed
10073
08:09:25,440 --> 08:09:30,240
like a high performance logistics
10074
08:09:27,360 --> 08:09:33,040
center. You cannot allow zombie bikes to
10075
08:09:30,240 --> 08:09:35,040
occupy these slots indefinitely.
10076
08:09:33,040 --> 08:09:37,040
This is where the incentive structure
10077
08:09:35,040 --> 08:09:39,840
comes into play.
10078
08:09:37,040 --> 08:09:43,040
The primary goal isn't profit, it's
10079
08:09:39,840 --> 08:09:45,604
turnover. By offering the first 24 hours
10080
08:09:43,040 --> 08:09:48,478
for free, the city subsidizes the daily
10081
08:09:45,604 --> 08:09:51,040
[music] workforce. But by charging a
10082
08:09:48,478 --> 08:09:54,240
daily fee thereafter, they penalize
10083
08:09:51,040 --> 08:09:56,638
long-term storage and abandonment. Using
10084
08:09:54,240 --> 08:09:59,600
advanced optical sensors, the city
10085
08:09:56,638 --> 08:10:02,080
monitors idle inventory in real time,
10086
08:09:59,600 --> 08:10:04,478
ensuring that these [music] 7,000 slots
10087
08:10:02,080 --> 08:10:07,840
remain a liquid asset for those who keep
10088
08:10:04,478 --> 08:10:07,840
the economy moving.
10089
08:10:08,240 --> 08:10:13,478
Finally, we must consider the cost of
10090
08:10:10,478 --> 08:10:13,478
friction.
10091
08:10:21,440 --> 08:10:24,440
Fore
10092
08:10:49,040 --> 08:10:53,760
in transport economics, every Second
10093
08:10:51,280 --> 08:10:56,080
loss in a transfer is a loss in human
10094
08:10:53,760 --> 08:10:58,160
capital and productivity.
10095
08:10:56,080 --> 08:11:00,080
This underwater facility connects
10096
08:10:58,160 --> 08:11:03,200
directly to the [music] metro and train
10097
08:11:00,080 --> 08:11:05,520
platforms. A commuter can transition
10098
08:11:03,200 --> 08:11:07,760
from their bicycle to their train seat
10099
08:11:05,520 --> 08:11:10,000
in less than 2 [music] minutes, shielded
10100
08:11:07,760 --> 08:11:11,440
from the elements. This level of
10101
08:11:10,000 --> 08:11:13,520
intermodel synergy [music]
10102
08:11:11,440 --> 08:11:15,680
is exactly what makes Amsterdam's
10103
08:11:13,520 --> 08:11:19,360
circular economy, currently at [music] a
10104
08:11:15,680 --> 08:11:21,760
record 30.6% 6% circularity rate, a
10105
08:11:19,360 --> 08:11:25,240
functional reality rather than just a
10106
08:11:21,760 --> 08:11:25,240
policy goal.
10107
08:11:48,000 --> 08:11:52,558
But this transition to a highly
10108
08:11:49,760 --> 08:11:54,798
regulated system created its own set of
10109
08:11:52,558 --> 08:11:57,760
problems. Because when you turn a
10110
08:11:54,798 --> 08:12:00,240
bicycle into a valuable economic asset,
10111
08:11:57,760 --> 08:12:03,200
you create something else. A black
10112
08:12:00,240 --> 08:12:05,600
market. In Amsterdam, [music] data
10113
08:12:03,200 --> 08:12:08,718
doesn't tell the whole story. While
10114
08:12:05,600 --> 08:12:12,240
police record 11,000 thefts a year, the
10115
08:12:08,718 --> 08:12:15,120
reality is closer to 80,000.
10116
08:12:12,240 --> 08:12:17,760
Most citizens don't report it. Cost of
10117
08:12:15,120 --> 08:12:20,000
time is higher than the bike's value.
10118
08:12:17,760 --> 08:12:22,240
This creates a massive shadow market
10119
08:12:20,000 --> 08:12:25,360
operating entirely outside the official
10120
08:12:22,240 --> 08:12:28,478
GDP. Forget the myth of international
10121
08:12:25,360 --> 08:12:32,160
bike smuggling rings.
10122
08:12:28,478 --> 08:12:34,320
A 2023 study tracking 100 bikes proved
10123
08:12:32,160 --> 08:12:37,440
that stolen assets rarely leave the
10124
08:12:34,320 --> 08:12:39,834
city. Instead, they feed a shadow
10125
08:12:37,440 --> 08:12:41,760
circular economy. Your stolen bike
10126
08:12:39,834 --> 08:12:44,000
[music] is sold to a street dealer and
10127
08:12:41,760 --> 08:12:46,398
then bought by your neighbor. It's a
10128
08:12:44,000 --> 08:12:49,600
localized, untaxed, and [music] illegal
10129
08:12:46,398 --> 08:12:51,760
closed loop.
10130
08:12:49,600 --> 08:12:54,320
High theft risk creates a market
10131
08:12:51,760 --> 08:12:56,718
distortion. If you expect your bike to
10132
08:12:54,320 --> 08:12:57,680
be stolen within months, you don't buy
10133
08:12:56,718 --> 08:13:01,440
quality, [music]
10134
08:12:57,680 --> 08:13:03,600
you buy junk. This beta bike equilibrium
10135
08:13:01,440 --> 08:13:06,000
keeps the city's transport fleet low
10136
08:13:03,600 --> 08:13:09,520
quality and forces owners to spend more
10137
08:13:06,000 --> 08:13:12,240
on locks than the bikes themselves.
10138
08:13:09,520 --> 08:13:14,550
These aren't victimless crimes. They are
10139
08:13:12,240 --> 08:13:17,680
negative externalities that drain city
10140
08:13:14,550 --> 08:13:20,958
[music] resources. Amsterdam's answer,
10141
08:13:17,680 --> 08:13:23,064
the Fiat depot. Since the city couldn't
10142
08:13:20,958 --> 08:13:25,760
stop the theft, it decided to manage
10143
08:13:23,064 --> 08:13:28,304
[music] the orphaned assets because in a
10144
08:13:25,760 --> 08:13:30,240
circular city, even a stolen bike is a
10145
08:13:28,304 --> 08:13:34,200
[music] resource that must be managed to
10146
08:13:30,240 --> 08:13:34,200
maintain the urban metabolism.
10147
08:13:34,638 --> 08:13:38,958
In a city with more bicycles than
10148
08:13:36,798 --> 08:13:40,638
people, orphaned assets are an
10149
08:13:38,958 --> 08:13:42,558
inevitability.
10150
08:13:40,638 --> 08:13:45,600
Every year, thousands of bikes are
10151
08:13:42,558 --> 08:13:48,160
simply left behind. In economic terms,
10152
08:13:45,600 --> 08:13:50,878
this is dead capital. They occupy
10153
08:13:48,160 --> 08:13:52,798
valuable public space, provide zero
10154
08:13:50,878 --> 08:13:54,398
utility, and degrade the urban
10155
08:13:52,798 --> 08:13:56,320
landscape.
10156
08:13:54,398 --> 08:13:58,798
According to official Amsterdam
10157
08:13:56,320 --> 08:14:01,280
regulations, the city must intervene
10158
08:13:58,798 --> 08:14:03,440
when private property interferes with
10159
08:14:01,280 --> 08:14:06,000
public efficiency.
10160
08:14:03,440 --> 08:14:08,878
Whether is an improperly parked bike
10161
08:14:06,000 --> 08:14:10,880
blocking an emergency exit or a wreck
10162
08:14:08,878 --> 08:14:12,878
that is no longer functional, the
10163
08:14:10,880 --> 08:14:17,120
[music] municipality acts as the
10164
08:14:12,878 --> 08:14:19,840
ultimate enforcer of spatial order.
10165
08:14:17,120 --> 08:14:23,440
All seized bicycles are transported to a
10166
08:14:19,840 --> 08:14:25,680
central facility, the Fiat depot. This
10167
08:14:23,440 --> 08:14:28,798
is a logistical powerhouse that manages
10168
08:14:25,680 --> 08:14:31,280
the city's lost capital. This isn't just
10169
08:14:28,798 --> 08:14:33,920
a pound. [music] It's a sorting facility
10170
08:14:31,280 --> 08:14:37,120
for the city's metal metabolism, the
10171
08:14:33,920 --> 08:14:38,958
retrieval. Owners have around 6 weeks to
10172
08:14:37,120 --> 08:14:41,520
claim their bike for a fee,
10173
08:14:38,958 --> 08:14:43,440
approximately €25.
10174
08:14:41,520 --> 08:14:45,840
This fee doesn't cover the full
10175
08:14:43,440 --> 08:14:49,120
operational cost, but it serves as a
10176
08:14:45,840 --> 08:14:51,520
user pays tax to discourage abandonment.
10177
08:14:49,120 --> 08:14:53,920
If your bicycle was removed from a city
10178
08:14:51,520 --> 08:14:56,000
parking facility, you will also pay
10179
08:14:53,920 --> 08:15:00,398
€33.75
10180
08:14:56,000 --> 08:15:03,680
parking cost. The sorting only about 25%
10181
08:15:00,398 --> 08:15:06,558
of bikes are ever reclaimed. The rest
10182
08:15:03,680 --> 08:15:08,080
they are classified as waste or asset.
10183
08:15:06,558 --> 08:15:12,000
Here is where [music] the circular
10184
08:15:08,080 --> 08:15:15,360
economy strategy 2020 to 2025 becomes
10185
08:15:12,000 --> 08:15:20,398
tangible. Amsterdam aims to reduce the
10186
08:15:15,360 --> 08:15:22,718
use of new raw materials by 50% by 2030.
10187
08:15:20,398 --> 08:15:24,478
The Fiat's depot doesn't just scrap
10188
08:15:22,718 --> 08:15:26,000
everything.
10189
08:15:24,478 --> 08:15:28,240
Refurbishment.
10190
08:15:26,000 --> 08:15:31,040
Bikes in decent condition are sold to
10191
08:15:28,240 --> 08:15:33,520
social enterprises or secondhand shops.
10192
08:15:31,040 --> 08:15:35,520
They are recirculated into the economy
10193
08:15:33,520 --> 08:15:37,920
at a low price point, providing
10194
08:15:35,520 --> 08:15:39,680
affordable mobility for lowincome
10195
08:15:37,920 --> 08:15:41,280
residents.
10196
08:15:39,680 --> 08:15:43,680
Education.
10197
08:15:41,280 --> 08:15:46,320
Many are used in vocational training
10198
08:15:43,680 --> 08:15:48,958
programs, turning junk, into a teaching
10199
08:15:46,320 --> 08:15:52,000
tool for future mechanics. Raw
10200
08:15:48,958 --> 08:15:54,398
materials, the unsalvageable ones, are
10201
08:15:52,000 --> 08:15:58,080
sold as highquality scrap metal, [music]
10202
08:15:54,398 --> 08:16:00,000
feeding back into the industrial cycle.
10203
08:15:58,080 --> 08:16:03,440
What we see here is a complete life
10204
08:16:00,000 --> 08:16:05,280
cycle management of a transport mode.
10205
08:16:03,440 --> 08:16:07,200
The biggest challenge for circular
10206
08:16:05,280 --> 08:16:09,920
cities is the lack of effective
10207
08:16:07,200 --> 08:16:12,080
governance mechanisms. Amsterdam
10208
08:16:09,920 --> 08:16:14,638
succeeds because it treats the bicycle
10209
08:16:12,080 --> 08:16:16,958
as a public utility. From the
10210
08:16:14,638 --> 08:16:19,600
multi-million euro investment under the
10211
08:16:16,958 --> 08:16:21,440
water to the scrap metal in the harbor,
10212
08:16:19,600 --> 08:16:26,120
the city manages the entire
10213
08:16:21,440 --> 08:16:26,120
cradletograve cycle of the bicycle.
10214
08:16:28,000 --> 08:16:32,558
Amsterdam is no longer just building
10215
08:16:30,160 --> 08:16:36,160
bike lanes. It is building a new
10216
08:16:32,558 --> 08:16:39,440
economic DNA. The city has set a target
10217
08:16:36,160 --> 08:16:44,760
that many economists call impossible to
10218
08:16:39,440 --> 08:16:44,760
be 100% circular by 2050.
10219
08:16:45,680 --> 08:16:51,280
This means that by midentury, every gram
10220
08:16:48,478 --> 08:16:53,760
of steel in a bicycle and every stone in
10221
08:16:51,280 --> 08:16:55,120
a bridge must stay within the economic
10222
08:16:53,760 --> 08:16:57,920
loop.
10223
08:16:55,120 --> 08:17:01,120
The take, make, waste model will be
10224
08:16:57,920 --> 08:17:03,920
extinct. For Amsterdam, the bicycle is
10225
08:17:01,120 --> 08:17:06,958
the alpha product. The test case for how
10226
08:17:03,920 --> 08:17:10,240
a city can move, consume, and recycle
10227
08:17:06,958 --> 08:17:13,440
without depleting the planet's capital.
10228
08:17:10,240 --> 08:17:15,680
To reach 100% circularity, the concept
10229
08:17:13,440 --> 08:17:18,958
of private ownership is being challenged
10230
08:17:15,680 --> 08:17:21,600
by a more efficient model, product as a
10231
08:17:18,958 --> 08:17:23,680
service. You don't buy the bike, you
10232
08:17:21,600 --> 08:17:25,520
rent the mobility.
10233
08:17:23,680 --> 08:17:27,120
So we talk a lot about ownership as a
10234
08:17:25,520 --> 08:17:30,160
service, but it's this idea of, you
10235
08:17:27,120 --> 08:17:32,558
know, something as a service. So in our
10236
08:17:30,160 --> 08:17:34,558
case, bike as a service. It's all of the
10237
08:17:32,558 --> 08:17:36,160
benefits of ownership, but none of the
10238
08:17:34,558 --> 08:17:38,160
drawbacks. So none of having to deal
10239
08:17:36,160 --> 08:17:39,840
with the maintenance or or any of the
10240
08:17:38,160 --> 08:17:40,798
things that come with actually owning
10241
08:17:39,840 --> 08:17:43,120
something.
10242
08:17:40,798 --> 08:17:46,000
>> Economically, this aligns the incentives
10243
08:17:43,120 --> 08:17:48,798
of the producer and the consumer. If the
10244
08:17:46,000 --> 08:17:51,600
bike breaks, it's the company's problem,
10245
08:17:48,798 --> 08:17:53,360
not yours. by centralizing all of that
10246
08:17:51,600 --> 08:17:54,878
maintenance. Obviously, we cut cost
10247
08:17:53,360 --> 08:17:56,958
significantly. We cut [music] waste
10248
08:17:54,878 --> 08:17:59,600
significantly. Um, but for the
10249
08:17:56,958 --> 08:18:01,040
individual user, um, they have nothing
10250
08:17:59,600 --> 08:18:02,320
to worry about. You know, as a
10251
08:18:01,040 --> 08:18:03,760
subscriber, you get all of your
10252
08:18:02,320 --> 08:18:05,520
maintenance. So, we come and do
10253
08:18:03,760 --> 08:18:07,680
preventative maintenance. So, first of
10254
08:18:05,520 --> 08:18:09,680
all, that obviously reduced the cost um,
10255
08:18:07,680 --> 08:18:11,840
overall, not so much to the end user,
10256
08:18:09,680 --> 08:18:13,280
but the cost of the business. Um, that
10257
08:18:11,840 --> 08:18:16,000
prevents breakdowns and things like
10258
08:18:13,280 --> 08:18:19,280
that. But in the end, if you think about
10259
08:18:16,000 --> 08:18:20,638
um the cost of time, the cost of effort,
10260
08:18:19,280 --> 08:18:22,398
um maybe you don't even know how to
10261
08:18:20,638 --> 08:18:24,080
maintain your own bike. Um having a
10262
08:18:22,398 --> 08:18:26,160
service that does all of that for you is
10263
08:18:24,080 --> 08:18:28,798
just a a matter of convenience.
10264
08:18:26,160 --> 08:18:31,760
>> This forces manufacturers to design for
10265
08:18:28,798 --> 08:18:34,798
durability and modularity, the core
10266
08:18:31,760 --> 08:18:37,040
pillars of this circular economy. When
10267
08:18:34,798 --> 08:18:39,120
the city manages the flow and private
10268
08:18:37,040 --> 08:18:42,080
companies manage the maintenance, the
10269
08:18:39,120 --> 08:18:45,040
shadow economy of theft we saw in act
10270
08:18:42,080 --> 08:18:46,558
three begins to shrink. So if you
10271
08:18:45,040 --> 08:18:48,080
subscribe to a bike from Clover and your
10272
08:18:46,558 --> 08:18:49,600
bike gets stolen, first of all, we
10273
08:18:48,080 --> 08:18:51,680
actually probably will notice that it
10274
08:18:49,600 --> 08:18:53,844
got stolen maybe even before you did
10275
08:18:51,680 --> 08:18:55,760
because we have GPS on all the bikes.
10276
08:18:53,844 --> 08:18:58,080
[music] Um, but if it does get stolen,
10277
08:18:55,760 --> 08:18:59,520
you use our WhatsApp chat. You basically
10278
08:18:58,080 --> 08:19:02,080
send us a message and we come and bring
10279
08:18:59,520 --> 08:19:04,558
you a new bike immediately. Why steal a
10280
08:19:02,080 --> 08:19:07,120
bike that is tracked, branded, and has
10281
08:19:04,558 --> 08:19:09,520
no resale value in a subscription-based
10282
08:19:07,120 --> 08:19:11,280
market?
10283
08:19:09,520 --> 08:19:13,840
So, what is the final return on
10284
08:19:11,280 --> 08:19:17,600
investment? Let's look at the triple
10285
08:19:13,840 --> 08:19:20,000
bottom line. Public health. By avoiding
10286
08:19:17,600 --> 08:19:20,638
11,000 deaths annually through active
10287
08:19:20,000 --> 08:19:23,840
transport, [music]
10288
08:19:20,638 --> 08:19:26,080
the Dutch economy saves 19 billion in
10289
08:19:23,840 --> 08:19:29,520
health care costs.
10290
08:19:26,080 --> 08:19:32,080
Urban density. By utilizing underwater
10291
08:19:29,520 --> 08:19:34,398
parking and vertical depots, Amsterdam
10292
08:19:32,080 --> 08:19:36,320
maintains a population density that
10293
08:19:34,398 --> 08:19:38,798
would be impossible with cars, [music]
10294
08:19:36,320 --> 08:19:40,478
keeping real estate productivity at peak
10295
08:19:38,798 --> 08:19:43,200
levels.
10296
08:19:40,478 --> 08:19:45,680
Resource independence by reclaiming
10297
08:19:43,200 --> 08:19:47,760
metal from the Fiats depot. The city
10298
08:19:45,680 --> 08:19:50,240
insulates itself from [music] global
10299
08:19:47,760 --> 08:19:53,520
commodity price shocks. This is a
10300
08:19:50,240 --> 08:19:55,840
sustainable urban metabolism. The city
10301
08:19:53,520 --> 08:19:58,080
isn't just a place where people live.
10302
08:19:55,840 --> 08:20:01,520
It's a living organism that processes
10303
08:19:58,080 --> 08:20:03,760
resources with maximum efficiency.
10304
08:20:01,520 --> 08:20:06,080
Amsterdam's success has sent a clear
10305
08:20:03,760 --> 08:20:08,398
message to the rest of the continent.
10306
08:20:06,080 --> 08:20:11,200
Spatial efficiency is the only way
10307
08:20:08,398 --> 08:20:13,680
forward for the modern metropolis.
10308
08:20:11,200 --> 08:20:15,680
Across Europe, the bicycle has moved
10309
08:20:13,680 --> 08:20:17,840
from being a leisure tool to a
10310
08:20:15,680 --> 08:20:20,000
cornerstone of urban recovery and
10311
08:20:17,840 --> 08:20:22,398
economic resilience.
10312
08:20:20,000 --> 08:20:25,680
In Paris, a city once defined by [music]
10313
08:20:22,398 --> 08:20:28,320
its congestion, the plan is investing
10314
08:20:25,680 --> 08:20:31,760
hundreds of millions to become 100%
10315
08:20:28,320 --> 08:20:34,080
cyclable. In Barcelona, the super blocks
10316
08:20:31,760 --> 08:20:38,478
are reclaiming entire intersections from
10317
08:20:34,080 --> 08:20:40,080
cars to create human ccentric lungs.
10318
08:20:38,478 --> 08:20:42,000
These aren't just environmental
10319
08:20:40,080 --> 08:20:43,680
projects, [music] they are market
10320
08:20:42,000 --> 08:20:46,080
corrections.
10321
08:20:43,680 --> 08:20:48,558
The cities are betting that a quieter,
10322
08:20:46,080 --> 08:20:50,958
cleaner, and more agile urban center
10323
08:20:48,558 --> 08:20:53,920
will attract more talent, more tourism,
10324
08:20:50,958 --> 08:20:56,478
and higher property values.
10325
08:20:53,920 --> 08:20:58,958
From the cycle superighways of London to
10326
08:20:56,478 --> 08:21:02,000
the industrial hubs of Germany, the
10327
08:20:58,958 --> 08:21:05,360
economic logic is consistent. Replacing
10328
08:21:02,000 --> 08:21:07,760
a 1 and 1/2 ton vehicle with a 15 kg
10329
08:21:05,360 --> 08:21:09,760
machine reduces the cost of maintenance
10330
08:21:07,760 --> 08:21:12,558
for the city and increases the
10331
08:21:09,760 --> 08:21:14,718
productivity of the citizen.
10332
08:21:12,558 --> 08:21:17,040
But while northern capitals have the
10333
08:21:14,718 --> 08:21:19,760
advantage of decades of infrastructure,
10334
08:21:17,040 --> 08:21:21,840
the real test is happening in the south.
10335
08:21:19,760 --> 08:21:24,080
In the Mediterranean, where the street
10336
08:21:21,840 --> 08:21:26,320
is a social space and the sun is a
10337
08:21:24,080 --> 08:21:29,040
constant resource, a new leader is
10338
08:21:26,320 --> 08:21:31,520
emerging. A city that has used the
10339
08:21:29,040 --> 08:21:35,320
Amsterdam blueprint to transform itself
10340
08:21:31,520 --> 08:21:35,320
at record speed.
10341
08:21:36,942 --> 08:21:38,960
[music]
10342
08:21:47,360 --> 08:21:50,360
forgo.
10343
08:22:37,202 --> 08:22:41,040
>> [music]
10344
08:22:38,478 --> 08:22:44,520
>> If Amsterdam is the blueprint, Valencia
10345
08:22:41,040 --> 08:22:44,520
is the laboratory.
10346
08:22:45,600 --> 08:22:48,600
Okay.
10347
08:22:57,520 --> 08:23:00,840
Not the fact
10348
08:23:28,160 --> 08:23:32,398
In less than a decade, this
10349
08:23:29,920 --> 08:23:34,842
Mediterranean city has transitioned from
10350
08:23:32,398 --> 08:23:39,000
a car ccentric capital to a global
10351
08:23:34,842 --> 08:23:39,000
[music] reference in urban metabolism.
10352
08:23:39,428 --> 08:23:41,448
[music]
10353
08:24:00,638 --> 08:24:06,240
Valencia's transformation wasn't a
10354
08:24:02,958 --> 08:24:08,398
matter of vibes or romanticism. It was a
10355
08:24:06,240 --> 08:24:09,920
calculated investment in spatial
10356
08:24:08,398 --> 08:24:12,160
efficiency.
10357
08:24:09,920 --> 08:24:13,760
>> I think attracting top global talent
10358
08:24:12,160 --> 08:24:15,454
means that you need to have a vibrant,
10359
08:24:13,760 --> 08:24:17,520
livable city. And I think most young
10360
08:24:15,454 --> 08:24:19,360
[music] people um particularly who are
10361
08:24:17,520 --> 08:24:21,360
coming into the workforce now are
10362
08:24:19,360 --> 08:24:23,840
looking for ways to get around a city
10363
08:24:21,360 --> 08:24:25,680
that doesn't rely on public transit.
10364
08:24:23,840 --> 08:24:27,840
They [music] don't want to own a car um
10365
08:24:25,680 --> 08:24:29,600
because car ownership is a total burden.
10366
08:24:27,840 --> 08:24:31,174
Having to find parking, insurance, cost
10367
08:24:29,600 --> 08:24:31,200
of the car, all of that.
10368
08:24:31,174 --> 08:24:32,718
>> [music]
10369
08:24:31,200 --> 08:24:34,958
>> So having this accessible
10370
08:24:32,718 --> 08:24:36,798
infrastructure, cycling infrastructure
10371
08:24:34,958 --> 08:24:38,718
specifically, and in a city like
10372
08:24:36,798 --> 08:24:40,718
Valencia that, you know, already has a
10373
08:24:38,718 --> 08:24:43,120
lot of reasons to attract top talent,
10374
08:24:40,718 --> 08:24:44,958
just makes it that much better. Um,
10375
08:24:43,120 --> 08:24:46,638
cycling is a preferred way to get around
10376
08:24:44,958 --> 08:24:48,718
in Valencia, we're number seven in the
10377
08:24:46,638 --> 08:24:50,638
world for cycling to work, for example.
10378
08:24:48,718 --> 08:24:52,790
So adding a layer of an easy
10379
08:24:50,638 --> 08:24:54,878
subscription ebike service to that just
10380
08:24:52,790 --> 08:24:57,040
[music] again attracts even more um top
10381
08:24:54,878 --> 08:25:00,080
talent to the city.
10382
08:24:57,040 --> 08:25:02,240
By implementing the Anilo cichlista, the
10383
08:25:00,080 --> 08:25:05,040
city has reclaimed high value public
10384
08:25:02,240 --> 08:25:07,360
space to boost local commerce and reduce
10385
08:25:05,040 --> 08:25:09,520
the toxic liability [music] of the car.
10386
08:25:07,360 --> 08:25:11,200
>> It's important to remember that um often
10387
08:25:09,520 --> 08:25:12,958
times with cars, although they can fit
10388
08:25:11,200 --> 08:25:14,958
multiple people, most of the time it's
10389
08:25:12,958 --> 08:25:16,638
one person per one car. So when we're
10390
08:25:14,958 --> 08:25:18,638
asking about, you know, 10 bikes versus
10391
08:25:16,638 --> 08:25:20,798
one car, we're essentially saying 10
10392
08:25:18,638 --> 08:25:22,558
people versus one person. So we have a
10393
08:25:20,798 --> 08:25:24,080
10x multiplier on essentially everything
10394
08:25:22,558 --> 08:25:25,360
that's happening on that street. Whether
10395
08:25:24,080 --> 08:25:26,478
that be visits to the businesses,
10396
08:25:25,360 --> 08:25:28,240
whether that be transactions and
10397
08:25:26,478 --> 08:25:29,760
purchases, everything gets that 10x
10398
08:25:28,240 --> 08:25:30,638
multiplier and increases revenue for the
10399
08:25:29,760 --> 08:25:33,120
whole street.
10400
08:25:30,638 --> 08:25:35,440
>> In economics, this is the optimization
10401
08:25:33,120 --> 08:25:37,680
of land use. The same principle that
10402
08:25:35,440 --> 08:25:38,558
drove Amsterdam to build under its
10403
08:25:37,680 --> 08:25:40,398
canals.
10404
08:25:38,558 --> 08:25:43,200
>> If I'm cycling and I pass by, for
10405
08:25:40,398 --> 08:25:44,718
example, a bakery, I go I smell that
10406
08:25:43,200 --> 08:25:46,160
bakery, I go, "Oh, you know what? Maybe
10407
08:25:44,718 --> 08:25:48,080
I'm going to stop in, try something one
10408
08:25:46,160 --> 08:25:49,200
of those products." Um, you know,
10409
08:25:48,080 --> 08:25:50,638
essentially become a patron of that
10410
08:25:49,200 --> 08:25:51,840
business. Whereas if I'm passing by in a
10411
08:25:50,638 --> 08:25:54,398
car, there's no chance of that
10412
08:25:51,840 --> 08:25:56,080
happening. And the other benefit is um
10413
08:25:54,398 --> 08:25:57,920
car parking also has this sort of
10414
08:25:56,080 --> 08:25:59,680
psychological effect on the streets and
10415
08:25:57,920 --> 08:26:01,360
the people that live there. Car parking
10416
08:25:59,680 --> 08:26:03,440
makes the space feel a lot more closed
10417
08:26:01,360 --> 08:26:04,798
in and a lot more cramped than bike
10418
08:26:03,440 --> 08:26:06,080
parking, which keeps the space very nice
10419
08:26:04,798 --> 08:26:08,000
and open.
10420
08:26:06,080 --> 08:26:10,878
>> Emerging businesses are shifting the
10421
08:26:08,000 --> 08:26:13,040
market from ownership to usership.
10422
08:26:10,878 --> 08:26:14,718
>> You know, our customers, they depend on
10423
08:26:13,040 --> 08:26:17,120
their bikes as a reliable way to get
10424
08:26:14,718 --> 08:26:18,478
around. And so we use an ownership as a
10425
08:26:17,120 --> 08:26:20,878
service model. So [music]
10426
08:26:18,478 --> 08:26:23,040
instead of owning the asset yourself, um
10427
08:26:20,878 --> 08:26:24,638
you subscribe to it from us. And we
10428
08:26:23,040 --> 08:26:25,920
think that's what customers need in
10429
08:26:24,638 --> 08:26:27,440
terms of reliable day-to-day
10430
08:26:25,920 --> 08:26:29,920
transportation. If you [music] look at
10431
08:26:27,440 --> 08:26:32,558
something like Lime or Valon BC, they
10432
08:26:29,920 --> 08:26:34,958
will have that idle asset problem. Um
10433
08:26:32,558 --> 08:26:36,718
and certainly ownership obviously the
10434
08:26:34,958 --> 08:26:39,120
same thing. But with us, you know,
10435
08:26:36,718 --> 08:26:41,040
handling maintenance, battery swapping,
10436
08:26:39,120 --> 08:26:43,280
theft protection, insurance, all of
10437
08:26:41,040 --> 08:26:45,200
that. Um and yet still having access to
10438
08:26:43,280 --> 08:26:47,120
the bike anytime you want. It's your
10439
08:26:45,200 --> 08:26:49,600
bike. [music] Subscription models like
10440
08:26:47,120 --> 08:26:52,478
swap Fiats, which already dominate the
10441
08:26:49,600 --> 08:26:54,478
Dutch market, are landing in Valencia.
10442
08:26:52,478 --> 08:26:56,718
These companies treat the bike as a
10443
08:26:54,478 --> 08:26:58,718
service, covering all maintenance and
10444
08:26:56,718 --> 08:27:00,398
repairs for a monthly fee.
10445
08:26:58,718 --> 08:27:02,478
>> Ownership isn't necessarily a bad
10446
08:27:00,398 --> 08:27:04,240
investment, but I think um most
10447
08:27:02,478 --> 08:27:05,600
consumers are moving away from owning
10448
08:27:04,240 --> 08:27:07,360
things. You know, people are leasing
10449
08:27:05,600 --> 08:27:10,080
their cars, people are, you know, more
10450
08:27:07,360 --> 08:27:11,840
and more renting their homes. Um so for
10451
08:27:10,080 --> 08:27:14,160
us, a subscription model made sense.
10452
08:27:11,840 --> 08:27:16,318
That and affordability. This eliminates
10453
08:27:14,160 --> 08:27:19,360
the fear of theft and long-term
10454
08:27:16,318 --> 08:27:21,600
depreciation, turning the bicycle into a
10455
08:27:19,360 --> 08:27:24,798
predictable low- friction utility for
10456
08:27:21,600 --> 08:27:27,840
the modern worker. The impact extends to
10457
08:27:24,798 --> 08:27:29,760
logistics. In Valencia's historic
10458
08:27:27,840 --> 08:27:32,160
center, where large trucks are
10459
08:27:29,760 --> 08:27:34,638
increasingly restricted, last mile
10460
08:27:32,160 --> 08:27:37,120
delivery by cargo bike is becoming the
10461
08:27:34,638 --> 08:27:39,520
gold standard for efficiency. We are
10462
08:27:37,120 --> 08:27:42,000
witnessing the birth of micro hubs,
10463
08:27:39,520 --> 08:27:44,318
small urban distribution centers that
10464
08:27:42,000 --> 08:27:47,600
allow for zero emission high-speed
10465
08:27:44,318 --> 08:27:49,280
delivery in high density zones. From the
10466
08:27:47,600 --> 08:27:51,680
massive underwater investments in
10467
08:27:49,280 --> 08:27:54,240
Amsterdam to the emerging subscription
10468
08:27:51,680 --> 08:27:57,280
models in Valencia, the message is
10469
08:27:54,240 --> 08:28:00,160
clear. The bicycle is no longer just a
10470
08:27:57,280 --> 08:28:02,718
hobby. It is a financial instrument and
10471
08:28:00,160 --> 08:28:03,920
a spatial optimizer.
10472
08:28:02,718 --> 08:28:06,318
You know, when we were speaking to
10473
08:28:03,920 --> 08:28:08,638
consumers about how we could get them to
10474
08:28:06,318 --> 08:28:10,478
switch from a car to an ebike, it was
10475
08:28:08,638 --> 08:28:12,718
all about convenience. So, it was about
10476
08:28:10,478 --> 08:28:14,718
this idea that, you know, with a car,
10477
08:28:12,718 --> 08:28:16,478
you can go point A to point B whenever
10478
08:28:14,718 --> 08:28:18,558
you want. You're not relying on public
10479
08:28:16,478 --> 08:28:20,638
transit or any of those things. But if
10480
08:28:18,558 --> 08:28:22,318
you need gas, you go to a gas station,
10481
08:28:20,638 --> 08:28:24,356
it takes 5 minutes, and you're back on
10482
08:28:22,318 --> 08:28:26,080
your way. People perceived ebikes
10483
08:28:24,356 --> 08:28:27,680
[music] as inconvenient because, oh,
10484
08:28:26,080 --> 08:28:29,040
what if I forget to charge the battery?
10485
08:28:27,680 --> 08:28:31,520
Then it's just kind of a very heavy
10486
08:28:29,040 --> 08:28:33,440
paper weight. Um, but if we eliminate
10487
08:28:31,520 --> 08:28:35,040
that need for charging and people can
10488
08:28:33,440 --> 08:28:37,600
just come and collect a charge battery
10489
08:28:35,040 --> 08:28:40,638
anytime, um, it helps break that barrier
10490
08:28:37,600 --> 08:28:42,558
to entry for getting out of a car. By
10491
08:28:40,638 --> 08:28:43,920
integrating these new business models
10492
08:28:42,558 --> 08:28:46,318
with public planning, [music]
10493
08:28:43,920 --> 08:28:49,280
Valencia is securing its place in the
10494
08:28:46,318 --> 08:28:51,680
21st century economy. Proving that a
10495
08:28:49,280 --> 08:28:54,958
dense functional city isn't just a
10496
08:28:51,680 --> 08:28:56,798
choice, it's a competitive necessity.
10497
08:28:54,958 --> 08:28:58,798
>> Ultimately, private car ownership is
10498
08:28:56,798 --> 08:29:00,398
going to become obsolete. Cities are
10499
08:28:58,798 --> 08:29:02,080
building for pedestrians. They're
10500
08:29:00,398 --> 08:29:04,638
building for cycling. They're building
10501
08:29:02,080 --> 08:29:06,558
for livability, not for cars.
10502
08:29:04,638 --> 08:29:08,718
>> Throughout this documentary, we have
10503
08:29:06,558 --> 08:29:11,840
seen the gears of a massive economic
10504
08:29:08,718 --> 08:29:14,718
machine. But there is a final myth we
10505
08:29:11,840 --> 08:29:17,120
must dismantle. The idea that cities
10506
08:29:14,718 --> 08:29:19,600
like Amsterdam or Valencia look like
10507
08:29:17,120 --> 08:29:22,080
this because their citizens are simply
10508
08:29:19,600 --> 08:29:25,840
different. History tells a different
10509
08:29:22,080 --> 08:29:27,760
story. In the 1970s, Amsterdam was on
10510
08:29:25,840 --> 08:29:30,478
the verge of becoming another car
10511
08:29:27,760 --> 08:29:33,040
ccentric congested metropolis.
10512
08:29:30,478 --> 08:29:35,760
The transition we see today wasn't a
10513
08:29:33,040 --> 08:29:38,318
natural evolution of culture. It was a
10514
08:29:35,760 --> 08:29:41,200
hostile takeover of urban space by a
10515
08:29:38,318 --> 08:29:43,440
policy and planning. When a city reaches
10516
08:29:41,200 --> 08:29:45,280
a certain density, [music] freedom of
10517
08:29:43,440 --> 08:29:47,520
choice in transport becomes a
10518
08:29:45,280 --> 08:29:51,120
mathematical impossibility. [music]
10519
08:29:47,520 --> 08:29:53,040
If everyone chooses a car, no one moves.
10520
08:29:51,120 --> 08:29:55,760
In this high stakes environment,
10521
08:29:53,040 --> 08:29:58,240
planning is not an option. It is the
10522
08:29:55,760 --> 08:30:01,280
only way to survive. What is the
10523
08:29:58,240 --> 08:30:04,160
ultimate harvest of this planning? It is
10524
08:30:01,280 --> 08:30:06,240
the 3% GDP boost we mentioned at the
10525
08:30:04,160 --> 08:30:08,080
start. But it's also found [music] in
10526
08:30:06,240 --> 08:30:11,200
the margins,
10527
08:30:08,080 --> 08:30:13,120
the fiscal savings by avoiding the need
10528
08:30:11,200 --> 08:30:14,958
for multi-billion euro highway
10529
08:30:13,120 --> 08:30:16,878
expansions [music] and massive health
10530
08:30:14,958 --> 08:30:18,558
care costs related to sedentary
10531
08:30:16,878 --> 08:30:21,600
lifestyles.
10532
08:30:18,558 --> 08:30:23,840
The resilience factor by creating a
10533
08:30:21,600 --> 08:30:26,638
circular metropolis that can process its
10534
08:30:23,840 --> 08:30:28,638
own waste at the Kruu depot and turn it
10535
08:30:26,638 --> 08:30:30,478
back into capital.
10536
08:30:28,638 --> 08:30:32,798
The talent magnet [music]
10537
08:30:30,478 --> 08:30:34,958
in the global war for talent. Highly
10538
08:30:32,798 --> 08:30:37,760
skilled workers choose cities based on
10539
08:30:34,958 --> 08:30:39,942
livability. Amsterdam's bicycle
10540
08:30:37,760 --> 08:30:42,160
infrastructure is its most effective
10541
08:30:39,942 --> 08:30:44,000
[music] recruitment tool. We started
10542
08:30:42,160 --> 08:30:47,200
this journey looking at a simple
10543
08:30:44,000 --> 08:30:49,840
machine, two wheels and a frame. But as
10544
08:30:47,200 --> 08:30:52,718
we've seen, the bicycle in Amsterdam is
10545
08:30:49,840 --> 08:30:54,878
much more than a transport mode. It is a
10546
08:30:52,718 --> 08:30:58,000
financial instrument. It [music] is a
10547
08:30:54,878 --> 08:31:00,798
spatial optimizer. It is the invisible
10548
08:30:58,000 --> 08:31:03,520
engine that allows a medieval city to
10549
08:31:00,798 --> 08:31:05,280
function as a 21st century economic
10550
08:31:03,520 --> 08:31:08,240
powerhouse.
10551
08:31:05,280 --> 08:31:10,718
The €85 million spent on underwater
10552
08:31:08,240 --> 08:31:13,760
tunnels, the complex logistics of the
10553
08:31:10,718 --> 08:31:16,958
Kruquest Depo, or the new Mediterranean
10554
08:31:13,760 --> 08:31:20,160
bike lanes are not costs. They are
10555
08:31:16,958 --> 08:31:22,718
investments in [music] resilience.
10556
08:31:20,160 --> 08:31:24,958
In a world of rising energy prices and
10557
08:31:22,718 --> 08:31:26,958
shrinking urban space, the Amsterdam
10558
08:31:24,958 --> 08:31:29,200
model offers a glimpse into [music] the
10559
08:31:26,958 --> 08:31:32,080
future. It proves that the most
10560
08:31:29,200 --> 08:31:34,798
sophisticated technology isn't always a
10561
08:31:32,080 --> 08:31:38,318
new gadget. Sometimes it's the perfect
10562
08:31:34,798 --> 08:31:41,958
integration of an old idea into a new
10563
08:31:38,318 --> 08:31:41,958
circular world.
10564
08:32:38,958 --> 08:32:41,958
Imagine
10565
08:32:57,840 --> 08:33:01,600
for a moment, what if your Bitcoin
10566
08:32:59,840 --> 08:33:03,600
holdings could purchase more than just
10567
08:33:01,600 --> 08:33:06,160
everyday items like coffee or the latest
10568
08:33:03,600 --> 08:33:08,080
gadgets? What if that digital currency
10569
08:33:06,160 --> 08:33:10,478
sitting in your wallet could actually
10570
08:33:08,080 --> 08:33:14,280
buy you a house or perhaps even an
10571
08:33:10,478 --> 08:33:14,280
entire [music] commercial building?
10572
08:33:24,878 --> 08:33:28,934
Welcome to the fascinating and rapidly
10573
08:33:26,958 --> 08:33:30,718
evolving world of crypto real estate,
10574
08:33:28,934 --> 08:33:35,318
[music] where digital assets are being
10575
08:33:30,718 --> 08:33:35,318
transformed into tangible property.
10576
08:33:39,200 --> 08:33:42,398
Today, we're taking a deep dive into the
10577
08:33:41,200 --> 08:33:44,398
revolutionary intersection of
10578
08:33:42,398 --> 08:33:46,718
cryptocurrency and property ownership,
10579
08:33:44,398 --> 08:33:48,878
examining in detail how Bitcoin [music]
10580
08:33:46,718 --> 08:33:51,120
is successfully transforming what were
10581
08:33:48,878 --> 08:33:53,280
once purely digital coins into tangible
10582
08:33:51,120 --> 08:33:54,498
physical real estate investments.
10583
08:33:53,280 --> 08:33:56,638
Whether you're an experienced crypto
10584
08:33:54,498 --> 08:33:58,798
[music] investor looking to diversify
10585
08:33:56,638 --> 08:34:00,398
your portfolio or simply someone who's
10586
08:33:58,798 --> 08:34:02,638
curious about emerging trends in
10587
08:34:00,398 --> 08:34:04,558
property markets, this is an in-depth
10588
08:34:02,638 --> 08:34:06,160
look at how the landscape and future of
10589
08:34:04,558 --> 08:34:08,318
real estate transactions is
10590
08:34:06,160 --> 08:34:10,878
fundamentally evolving and changing
10591
08:34:08,318 --> 08:34:12,878
before our eyes.
10592
08:34:10,878 --> 08:34:14,786
The financial world is in constant
10593
08:34:12,878 --> 08:34:16,558
transformation, but in this decade,
10594
08:34:14,786 --> 08:34:20,240
[music] digitalization has accelerated
10595
08:34:16,558 --> 08:34:23,120
that change faster than anyone imagined.
10596
08:34:20,240 --> 08:34:24,718
Today, money, investments, and assets
10597
08:34:23,120 --> 08:34:26,160
flow [music] through codes silent,
10598
08:34:24,718 --> 08:34:29,440
transparent, and borderless.
10599
08:34:26,160 --> 08:34:31,600
Cryptocurrencies led by Bitcoin mark the
10600
08:34:29,440 --> 08:34:33,124
beginning of a new era. They shook the
10601
08:34:31,600 --> 08:34:35,120
foundations of the global financial
10602
08:34:33,124 --> 08:34:37,680
[music] system, sparking both excitement
10603
08:34:35,120 --> 08:34:38,638
and skepticism. Yet, behind that
10604
08:34:37,680 --> 08:34:41,280
phenomenon [music]
10605
08:34:38,638 --> 08:34:44,280
emerged something even deeper.
10606
08:34:41,280 --> 08:34:44,280
Tokenization.
10607
08:34:46,398 --> 08:34:49,398
Contraos.
10608
08:35:05,200 --> 08:35:08,760
Real world assets.
10609
08:35:11,120 --> 08:35:14,120
Forech.
10610
08:35:41,120 --> 08:35:45,120
tokenization brings. So it's the most
10611
08:35:42,638 --> 08:35:46,798
suitable, most modern ledger technology
10612
08:35:45,120 --> 08:35:47,440
uh ideal for modernizing capital
10613
08:35:46,798 --> 08:35:50,638
markets.
10614
08:35:47,440 --> 08:35:52,638
>> The idea is simple, the impact enormous.
10615
08:35:50,638 --> 08:35:55,280
Each token represents a fraction of an
10616
08:35:52,638 --> 08:35:57,280
asset, a share, a bond, a property, or
10617
08:35:55,280 --> 08:35:59,360
even a work of art, all recorded on a
10618
08:35:57,280 --> 08:36:02,360
blockchain, a global tamper proof
10619
08:35:59,360 --> 08:36:02,360
ledger.
10620
08:36:03,516 --> 08:36:08,280
[music]
10621
08:36:05,280 --> 08:36:08,280
Okay.
10622
08:36:19,520 --> 08:36:22,920
Smart contracts.
10623
08:36:33,920 --> 08:36:36,920
bureau.
10624
08:36:37,200 --> 08:36:41,200
>> We believe the next step going forward
10625
08:36:39,040 --> 08:36:45,120
will be the tokenization of financial
10626
08:36:41,200 --> 08:36:48,080
assets and that means every stock, every
10627
08:36:45,120 --> 08:36:49,920
bond will have its own basically QIP.
10628
08:36:48,080 --> 08:36:52,398
It'll be on one general ledger. [music]
10629
08:36:49,920 --> 08:36:54,878
In other words, a token isn't just an
10630
08:36:52,398 --> 08:36:57,200
asset. It's a digital entry in a new
10631
08:36:54,878 --> 08:36:59,600
kind of ledger that is rewriting how
10632
08:36:57,200 --> 08:37:01,156
capital markets keep their books.
10633
08:36:59,600 --> 08:37:01,760
Investment in tokenized real estates
10634
08:37:01,156 --> 08:37:03,280
[music]
10635
08:37:01,760 --> 08:37:05,520
represents one of the most recent
10636
08:37:03,280 --> 08:37:07,760
advancements in the property industry.
10637
08:37:05,520 --> 08:37:10,240
Tokenization [music] enables houses and
10638
08:37:07,760 --> 08:37:14,280
apartments to be divided and sold and
10639
08:37:10,240 --> 08:37:14,280
numerous smaller units.
10640
08:37:20,798 --> 08:37:23,798
Foreom
10641
08:37:52,902 --> 08:37:54,922
>> [music]
10642
08:38:00,718 --> 08:38:05,040
>> small programs act like a bridge between
10643
08:38:02,478 --> 08:38:06,798
a property and online trading platform.
10644
08:38:05,040 --> 08:38:08,318
Hence, tokens create a digital
10645
08:38:06,798 --> 08:38:09,600
representation of a property
10646
08:38:08,318 --> 08:38:12,600
facilitating its [music] digital
10647
08:38:09,600 --> 08:38:12,600
transfer.
10648
08:38:14,080 --> 08:38:18,000
The process of purchasing a property is
10649
08:38:16,240 --> 08:38:20,398
still associated with significant
10650
08:38:18,000 --> 08:38:21,040
bureaucracy, lengthy procedures, and
10651
08:38:20,398 --> 08:38:22,878
subsequent [music]
10652
08:38:21,040 --> 08:38:26,160
high costs.
10653
08:38:22,878 --> 08:38:28,558
So what exactly is crypto real estate?
10654
08:38:26,160 --> 08:38:30,878
At its core, the term refers to any real
10655
08:38:28,558 --> 08:38:33,680
estate transaction where cryptocurrency
10656
08:38:30,878 --> 08:38:36,160
plays a major role either as a direct
10657
08:38:33,680 --> 08:38:40,440
form of payment, a converted asset, or
10658
08:38:36,160 --> 08:38:40,440
collateral for purchasing property.
10659
08:38:43,440 --> 08:38:46,600
real estate,
10660
08:38:48,000 --> 08:38:51,000
Bitcoins.
10661
08:39:07,840 --> 08:39:12,040
Crypto reference loans.
10662
08:39:31,680 --> 08:39:36,638
But the concept goes even deeper than
10663
08:39:34,398 --> 08:39:38,638
that. Crypto real estate includes buying
10664
08:39:36,638 --> 08:39:40,718
a home directly with Bitcoin or other
10665
08:39:38,638 --> 08:39:43,840
cryptocurrencies, using stable coins
10666
08:39:40,718 --> 08:39:46,798
like USDT or USDC for a more stable
10667
08:39:43,840 --> 08:39:48,638
purchase, converting crypto into fiat at
10668
08:39:46,798 --> 08:39:50,160
closing, taking out loans backed by
10669
08:39:48,638 --> 08:39:51,840
cryptocurrency to purchase real
10670
08:39:50,160 --> 08:39:53,840
property, tokenized real estate where
10671
08:39:51,840 --> 08:39:55,440
ownership is fractionalized into digital
10672
08:39:53,840 --> 08:39:57,120
token, blockchain based property
10673
08:39:55,440 --> 08:40:00,120
records, and smart contract driven
10674
08:39:57,120 --> 08:40:00,120
transactions.
10675
08:40:12,240 --> 08:40:15,638
Stable coins.
10676
08:40:28,878 --> 08:40:32,360
Stable coins.
10677
08:40:41,040 --> 08:40:46,520
EMT. E A R T
10678
08:40:54,718 --> 08:40:58,840
U USDT
10679
08:41:02,638 --> 08:41:05,638
USDC
10680
08:41:18,080 --> 08:41:21,080
US
10681
08:41:25,360 --> 08:41:28,840
stable coinry.
10682
08:41:40,798 --> 08:41:43,798
for
10683
08:42:09,600 --> 08:42:12,240
example.
10684
08:42:21,120 --> 08:42:25,440
It's an evolution in how value moves
10685
08:42:23,360 --> 08:42:27,600
around the world. And for the first
10686
08:42:25,440 --> 08:42:32,040
time, digital wealth is becoming a
10687
08:42:27,600 --> 08:42:32,040
direct pathway to physical ownership.
10688
08:42:33,680 --> 08:42:37,440
To understand how we arrived at this
10689
08:42:35,680 --> 08:42:40,000
moment, we need to step back and look at
10690
08:42:37,440 --> 08:42:42,080
the timeline. Bitcoin launched in 2009
10691
08:42:40,000 --> 08:42:44,000
as a peer-to-peer digital alternative to
10692
08:42:42,080 --> 08:42:45,840
money. In its early years, the idea of
10693
08:42:44,000 --> 08:42:48,160
using Bitcoin to buy real estate was
10694
08:42:45,840 --> 08:42:50,398
laughable. But Bitcoin grew, first
10695
08:42:48,160 --> 08:42:52,958
crossing $1, then a 100, then a
10696
08:42:50,398 --> 08:42:55,520
thousand, then tens of thousands. A new
10697
08:42:52,958 --> 08:42:57,520
wave of wealth was created. Suddenly,
10698
08:42:55,520 --> 08:42:59,680
early adopters who once bought pizza
10699
08:42:57,520 --> 08:43:02,718
with Bitcoin now had enough digital
10700
08:42:59,680 --> 08:43:05,040
value to buy entire homes, and sellers
10701
08:43:02,718 --> 08:43:07,040
began paying attention. The first public
10702
08:43:05,040 --> 08:43:09,920
record of a property purchased fully in
10703
08:43:07,040 --> 08:43:11,760
Bitcoin. and dates back to 2017. From
10704
08:43:09,920 --> 08:43:14,398
there, the trend spread to luxury
10705
08:43:11,760 --> 08:43:16,798
markets. Miami, Los Angeles, New York,
10706
08:43:14,398 --> 08:43:18,798
Dubai, and London. Developers began
10707
08:43:16,798 --> 08:43:20,958
marketing properties specifically to
10708
08:43:18,798 --> 08:43:23,760
crypto buyers. Brokers started
10709
08:43:20,958 --> 08:43:26,318
specializing in crypto transactions.
10710
08:43:23,760 --> 08:43:28,160
Escrow companies adapted.
10711
08:43:26,318 --> 08:43:31,440
Even governments began studying
10712
08:43:28,160 --> 08:43:34,000
blockchainbased property registries.
10713
08:43:31,440 --> 08:43:36,478
Buying real estate with Bitcoin isn't
10714
08:43:34,000 --> 08:43:38,398
science fiction. Some sellers now accept
10715
08:43:36,478 --> 08:43:40,318
crypto directly, while others work
10716
08:43:38,398 --> 08:43:43,520
through brokers who convert Bitcoin into
10717
08:43:40,318 --> 08:43:45,680
local currency. The process is faster,
10718
08:43:43,520 --> 08:43:48,000
borderless, and sometimes even tax
10719
08:43:45,680 --> 08:43:50,398
efficient if you know the rules. Things
10720
08:43:48,000 --> 08:43:53,840
that sounded impossible in 2010 became
10721
08:43:50,398 --> 08:43:56,080
normal by 2020. And now in the 2020s,
10722
08:43:53,840 --> 08:43:57,840
cryptocurrency is becoming a serious
10723
08:43:56,080 --> 08:44:00,160
player in global [music] real estate.
10724
08:43:57,840 --> 08:44:02,000
The crypto boom has created a new class
10725
08:44:00,160 --> 08:44:04,000
of investors. High- netw worth
10726
08:44:02,000 --> 08:44:06,080
individuals [music] want to diversify
10727
08:44:04,000 --> 08:44:08,798
and real estate is a safe tangible
10728
08:44:06,080 --> 08:44:11,360
asset. From luxury homes in Miami to
10729
08:44:08,798 --> 08:44:13,680
condos in Dubai, Bitcoin buyers are
10730
08:44:11,360 --> 08:44:15,426
making their mark. Let's look at a few
10731
08:44:13,680 --> 08:44:17,040
real world examples to understand how
10732
08:44:15,426 --> 08:44:20,478
[music] crypto real estate works in
10733
08:44:17,040 --> 08:44:22,958
practice. Case study one. In 2021, a
10734
08:44:20,478 --> 08:44:25,440
luxury penthouse at Arte by Antonio
10735
08:44:22,958 --> 08:44:28,878
Satario in Surfside, Florida made
10736
08:44:25,440 --> 08:44:30,798
history. The property sold for $22.5
10737
08:44:28,878 --> 08:44:33,120
million, paid entirely in
10738
08:44:30,798 --> 08:44:35,280
cryptocurrency. The largest publicly
10739
08:44:33,120 --> 08:44:37,840
known real estate transaction completed
10740
08:44:35,280 --> 08:44:39,360
using digital assets at the time. A
10741
08:44:37,840 --> 08:44:41,680
developer's decision to accept
10742
08:44:39,360 --> 08:44:43,680
cryptocurrency had paid off. The sale
10743
08:44:41,680 --> 08:44:45,360
came just weeks after the developer
10744
08:44:43,680 --> 08:44:47,200
announced it would begin accepting
10745
08:44:45,360 --> 08:44:48,318
cryptocurrency payments through a
10746
08:44:47,200 --> 08:44:50,160
partnership [music] with blockchain
10747
08:44:48,318 --> 08:44:52,000
platform Solid Block. According to
10748
08:44:50,160 --> 08:44:54,240
Forbes, the deal demonstrated that
10749
08:44:52,000 --> 08:44:57,040
crypto was no longer just a speculative
10750
08:44:54,240 --> 08:44:59,600
asset. It had become a viable method for
10751
08:44:57,040 --> 08:45:02,398
purchasing high-end real estate. Case
10752
08:44:59,600 --> 08:45:04,638
study 2. In Dubai, one of the earliest
10753
08:45:02,398 --> 08:45:07,120
large-scale experiments with crypto real
10754
08:45:04,638 --> 08:45:09,520
estate unfolded at Aston Plaza and
10755
08:45:07,120 --> 08:45:12,160
residences located in Dubai Science
10756
08:45:09,520 --> 08:45:13,840
Park. Marketed as one of the first major
10757
08:45:12,160 --> 08:45:15,760
developments in the region to accept
10758
08:45:13,840 --> 08:45:17,440
Bitcoin. The project offered [music]
10759
08:45:15,760 --> 08:45:19,040
apartments priced directly in
10760
08:45:17,440 --> 08:45:21,040
cryptocurrency.
10761
08:45:19,040 --> 08:45:23,840
Buyers were able to commit funds using
10762
08:45:21,040 --> 08:45:25,680
Bitcoin, capturing global attention. But
10763
08:45:23,840 --> 08:45:28,638
the story also revealed the risks of
10764
08:45:25,680 --> 08:45:32,080
innovation. Originally advertised as a
10765
08:45:28,638 --> 08:45:34,240
$325 million development. The project
10766
08:45:32,080 --> 08:45:36,638
later stalled and its completion became
10767
08:45:34,240 --> 08:45:39,520
uncertain. While crypto payments were
10768
08:45:36,638 --> 08:45:41,680
accepted, it remains unclear whether all
10769
08:45:39,520 --> 08:45:44,080
buyers ultimately received finished
10770
08:45:41,680 --> 08:45:46,558
properties. The case highlighted both
10771
08:45:44,080 --> 08:45:48,718
the promise and the pitfalls of early
10772
08:45:46,558 --> 08:45:51,760
crypto adoption [music] real estate.
10773
08:45:48,718 --> 08:45:52,958
Case study three. In 2025, Spain
10774
08:45:51,760 --> 08:45:54,718
recorded one [music] of its first
10775
08:45:52,958 --> 08:45:57,200
officially reported property sales
10776
08:45:54,718 --> 08:45:59,920
completed with Bitcoin. A property in
10777
08:45:57,200 --> 08:46:01,920
Madrid valued at approximately 1.5
10778
08:45:59,920 --> 08:46:04,080
million of euros was purchased by an
10779
08:46:01,920 --> 08:46:06,000
international buyer using Bitcoin. The
10780
08:46:04,080 --> 08:46:08,638
transaction followed standard real
10781
08:46:06,000 --> 08:46:11,040
estate procedures, including escrow,
10782
08:46:08,638 --> 08:46:13,360
legal compliance, and the conversion of
10783
08:46:11,040 --> 08:46:15,360
crypto into euros for the seller. It
10784
08:46:13,360 --> 08:46:16,558
marked a significant milestone showing
10785
08:46:15,360 --> 08:46:18,478
that cryptocurrency [music] could
10786
08:46:16,558 --> 08:46:20,558
integrate into traditional real estate
10787
08:46:18,478 --> 08:46:23,120
systems even in highly regulated
10788
08:46:20,558 --> 08:46:25,520
European markets. Case [music] study 4.
10789
08:46:23,120 --> 08:46:27,680
In the United States, crypto adoption
10790
08:46:25,520 --> 08:46:29,920
hasn't been limited to coastal tech
10791
08:46:27,680 --> 08:46:32,318
hubs. [music] An agent with Safabis
10792
08:46:29,920 --> 08:46:35,120
International Realy in Delaware reported
10793
08:46:32,318 --> 08:46:38,000
selling a luxury property for $175
10794
08:46:35,120 --> 08:46:40,080
million paid in Bitcoin. Believed to be
10795
08:46:38,000 --> 08:46:41,760
one of the state's first major real
10796
08:46:40,080 --> 08:46:42,798
estate transactions involving
10797
08:46:41,760 --> 08:46:44,958
cryptocurrency, [music]
10798
08:46:42,798 --> 08:46:47,200
the sale was widely publicized as a
10799
08:46:44,958 --> 08:46:48,798
local milestone, signaling that crypto
10800
08:46:47,200 --> 08:46:50,638
real estate was beginning to reach
10801
08:46:48,798 --> 08:46:54,680
beyond niche markets and [music] into
10802
08:46:50,638 --> 08:46:54,680
everyday property transactions.
10803
08:46:55,440 --> 08:46:58,578
Genius Act. [music]
10804
08:47:14,240 --> 08:47:17,240
daughter.
10805
08:47:28,654 --> 08:47:30,674
[music]
10806
08:47:53,360 --> 08:47:56,360
Maximum.
10807
08:48:46,318 --> 08:48:50,878
Taken together, these cases tell a
10808
08:48:48,318 --> 08:48:53,120
larger story. one of experimentation,
10809
08:48:50,878 --> 08:48:55,440
success, setbacks, and growing
10810
08:48:53,120 --> 08:48:57,680
legitimacy. Crypto real estate is no
10811
08:48:55,440 --> 08:48:59,920
longer hypothetical. It's happening
10812
08:48:57,680 --> 08:49:03,680
transaction by transaction across the
10813
08:48:59,920 --> 08:49:05,520
globe. But it's not all smooth sailing.
10814
08:49:03,680 --> 08:49:07,920
Crypto's value can be volatile.
10815
08:49:05,520 --> 08:49:10,398
Regulations vary by country, and tax
10816
08:49:07,920 --> 08:49:12,718
implications can be tricky. First,
10817
08:49:10,398 --> 08:49:14,878
volatility. Bitcoin and other
10818
08:49:12,718 --> 08:49:16,718
cryptocurrencies can move dramatically,
10819
08:49:14,878 --> 08:49:18,558
sometimes losing or gaining a third of
10820
08:49:16,718 --> 08:49:20,878
their value in weeks. for buyers who
10821
08:49:18,558 --> 08:49:24,318
convert at closing. Rapid swings can
10822
08:49:20,878 --> 08:49:27,440
erase gains or spike costs and hours.
10823
08:49:24,318 --> 08:49:29,520
Second, transaction mechanics and title.
10824
08:49:27,440 --> 08:49:31,600
Even when a seller accepts crypto, most
10825
08:49:29,520 --> 08:49:33,040
governments and land registries require
10826
08:49:31,600 --> 08:49:35,360
deeds to be issued in the local
10827
08:49:33,040 --> 08:49:37,600
currency. That usually means an
10828
08:49:35,360 --> 08:49:39,520
intermediary converts crypto to fiat
10829
08:49:37,600 --> 08:49:41,680
before the legal title is registered,
10830
08:49:39,520 --> 08:49:43,440
adding counterparty risk and an extra
10831
08:49:41,680 --> 08:49:46,318
step that can delay and complicate
10832
08:49:43,440 --> 08:49:48,000
settlements. Third, taxes. In many
10833
08:49:46,318 --> 08:49:50,160
jurisdictions, authorities treat crypto
10834
08:49:48,000 --> 08:49:52,080
as property, not currency, which makes
10835
08:49:50,160 --> 08:49:54,398
nearly every transfer a taxable event.
10836
08:49:52,080 --> 08:49:56,478
That includes sales, exchanges, and
10837
08:49:54,398 --> 08:49:58,718
sometimes even payments for goods or
10838
08:49:56,478 --> 08:50:00,958
services. Buyers and sellers must track
10839
08:49:58,718 --> 08:50:03,120
cost basis, gains, and report the
10840
08:50:00,958 --> 08:50:05,680
transactions accurately or face audits
10841
08:50:03,120 --> 08:50:07,600
and penalties. Fourth, lending and
10842
08:50:05,680 --> 08:50:09,200
counterparty risk. Cryptoback lending
10843
08:50:07,600 --> 08:50:11,040
exploded in the previous market cycle,
10844
08:50:09,200 --> 08:50:13,280
but it ended with high-profile collapses
10845
08:50:11,040 --> 08:50:15,120
and bankruptcies. When platforms fail,
10846
08:50:13,280 --> 08:50:17,040
borrowers and depositors can lose access
10847
08:50:15,120 --> 08:50:18,718
to funds. Collateral can be liquidated
10848
08:50:17,040 --> 08:50:20,478
at a loss and promise liquidity
10849
08:50:18,718 --> 08:50:22,398
disappears, a danger for anyone relying
10850
08:50:20,478 --> 08:50:24,558
on thirdparty services to bridge crypto
10851
08:50:22,398 --> 08:50:25,920
and property purchases.
10852
08:50:24,558 --> 08:50:28,398
Fifth, compliance and
10853
08:50:25,920 --> 08:50:30,080
anti-moneyaundering rules. Regulators
10854
08:50:28,398 --> 08:50:31,920
and global bodies have tightened rules
10855
08:50:30,080 --> 08:50:34,160
around virtual assets to prevent illicit
10856
08:50:31,920 --> 08:50:36,558
flows. Real estate transactions are high
10857
08:50:34,160 --> 08:50:38,240
on that list, meaning additional KYC,
10858
08:50:36,558 --> 08:50:40,318
source of fund checks, and reporting
10859
08:50:38,240 --> 08:50:42,160
requirements. Failure to meet these
10860
08:50:40,318 --> 08:50:44,478
standards can stall a sale, trigger
10861
08:50:42,160 --> 08:50:47,600
investigations, or expose participants
10862
08:50:44,478 --> 08:50:49,280
to legal liability. Sixth, operational
10863
08:50:47,600 --> 08:50:51,360
and technical risk. Crypto [music]
10864
08:50:49,280 --> 08:50:53,280
transactions are irreversible. A single
10865
08:50:51,360 --> 08:50:54,958
wrong character in a wallet address or a
10866
08:50:53,280 --> 08:50:56,638
fishing attack on an email with wiring
10867
08:50:54,958 --> 08:50:58,080
instructions can send millions to the
10868
08:50:56,638 --> 08:51:00,478
wrong place, and there's no bank to
10869
08:50:58,080 --> 08:51:02,878
reverse the transfer. Seven, technology
10870
08:51:00,478 --> 08:51:04,878
risk, smart contracts, tokenization, and
10871
08:51:02,878 --> 08:51:06,958
new platforms bring innovation, but also
10872
08:51:04,878 --> 08:51:08,958
software bugs and design flaws. A poorly
10873
08:51:06,958 --> 08:51:11,280
written smart contract or an unodudited
10874
08:51:08,958 --> 08:51:13,520
tokenization platform can freeze assets,
10875
08:51:11,280 --> 08:51:16,240
misallocate ownership shares or enable
10876
08:51:13,520 --> 08:51:18,000
exploits. Finally, market [music] and
10877
08:51:16,240 --> 08:51:19,520
reputational risk. Developers and
10878
08:51:18,000 --> 08:51:21,120
brokers who accept crypto can attract
10879
08:51:19,520 --> 08:51:23,040
new buyers, but they also take on
10880
08:51:21,120 --> 08:51:24,458
greater scrutiny, regulatory compliance
10881
08:51:23,040 --> 08:51:26,318
burdens, and the risk that projects
10882
08:51:24,458 --> 08:51:28,558
[music] promoted with crypto funding may
10883
08:51:26,318 --> 08:51:31,360
underdel, stall, or become entangled in
10884
08:51:28,558 --> 08:51:33,680
legal disputes. In short, crypto can
10885
08:51:31,360 --> 08:51:36,240
speed and globalize property deals, but
10886
08:51:33,680 --> 08:51:38,878
it also layers on volatility, regulatory
10887
08:51:36,240 --> 08:51:40,958
complexity, and new failure modes. For
10888
08:51:38,878 --> 08:51:43,280
buyers, sellers, and advisers, the
10889
08:51:40,958 --> 08:51:45,120
lesson is clear. Proceed with rigorous
10890
08:51:43,280 --> 08:51:47,680
legal counsel, hardened custody
10891
08:51:45,120 --> 08:51:49,760
practices, and transparent compliance.
10892
08:51:47,680 --> 08:51:52,760
The opportunity is real, but so are the
10893
08:51:49,760 --> 08:51:52,760
pitfalls.
10894
08:52:11,360 --> 08:52:16,478
Still, the opportunities are huge. A new
10895
08:52:14,318 --> 08:52:18,318
generation of buyers is turning digital
10896
08:52:16,478 --> 08:52:21,360
value into physical assets. [music] For
10897
08:52:18,318 --> 08:52:24,000
many, Bitcoin isn't just a currency.
10898
08:52:21,360 --> 08:52:25,280
It's a gateway to ownership.
10899
08:52:24,000 --> 08:52:27,520
One of the biggest shifts is
10900
08:52:25,280 --> 08:52:29,440
tokenization. Instead of buying an
10901
08:52:27,520 --> 08:52:31,200
entire building, investors can [music]
10902
08:52:29,440 --> 08:52:33,680
now purchase fractional ownership
10903
08:52:31,200 --> 08:52:35,440
through blockchainbased tokens. This
10904
08:52:33,680 --> 08:52:37,520
lowers the barrier to entry, allowing
10905
08:52:35,440 --> 08:52:38,878
smaller investors to access real estate
10906
08:52:37,520 --> 08:52:43,318
markets [music] that were once reserved
10907
08:52:38,878 --> 08:52:43,318
for institutions and the ultra wealthy.
10908
08:52:45,024 --> 08:52:47,042
[music]
10909
08:52:49,440 --> 08:52:52,440
forction.
10910
08:52:54,848 --> 08:52:56,868
[music]
10911
08:53:03,364 --> 08:53:05,382
[music]
10912
08:53:27,920 --> 08:53:32,798
Tokenization also brings liquidity to an
10913
08:53:30,798 --> 08:53:35,200
industry that has traditionally been
10914
08:53:32,798 --> 08:53:37,600
slow and illquid. Real estate
10915
08:53:35,200 --> 08:53:39,040
transactions can take months. Tokenized
10916
08:53:37,600 --> 08:53:41,920
shares can potentially [music] be
10917
08:53:39,040 --> 08:53:44,160
transferred in minutes. Crypto is also
10918
08:53:41,920 --> 08:53:45,940
reshaping crossber real estate.
10919
08:53:44,160 --> 08:53:47,840
International buyers often face currency
10920
08:53:45,940 --> 08:53:50,558
[music] controls, wire delays, and
10921
08:53:47,840 --> 08:53:52,478
banking restrictions. Cryptocurrency
10922
08:53:50,558 --> 08:53:54,000
allows capital to move globally with
10923
08:53:52,478 --> 08:53:55,840
fewer friction [music] points, opening
10924
08:53:54,000 --> 08:53:57,920
markets to buyers who were previously
10925
08:53:55,840 --> 08:53:59,920
locked out. As a result, cities that
10926
08:53:57,920 --> 08:54:01,840
embrace crypto-friendly regulations are
10927
08:53:59,920 --> 08:54:03,600
attracting global capital faster.
10928
08:54:01,840 --> 08:54:05,520
Developers are responding by marketing
10929
08:54:03,600 --> 08:54:08,080
properties directly to crypto holders,
10930
08:54:05,520 --> 08:54:09,440
not as a novelty, but as a strategy.
10931
08:54:08,080 --> 08:54:10,878
Governments are also exploring
10932
08:54:09,440 --> 08:54:13,200
blockchain for land registries [music]
10933
08:54:10,878 --> 08:54:15,120
and property records. Immutable ledgers
10934
08:54:13,200 --> 08:54:17,600
can reduce disputes, prevent title
10935
08:54:15,120 --> 08:54:19,680
fraud, and provide permanent verifiable
10936
08:54:17,600 --> 08:54:21,120
ownership history, especially in regions
10937
08:54:19,680 --> 08:54:23,520
where property rights are difficult to
10938
08:54:21,120 --> 08:54:25,840
enforce. This isn't a complete
10939
08:54:23,520 --> 08:54:28,160
replacement of traditional real estate.
10940
08:54:25,840 --> 08:54:30,160
It's a transformation. Crypto doesn't
10941
08:54:28,160 --> 08:54:32,318
eliminate the fundamentals. Location,
10942
08:54:30,160 --> 08:54:34,080
demand, and due diligence still matter,
10943
08:54:32,318 --> 08:54:35,840
but [music] it changes how value moves,
10944
08:54:34,080 --> 08:54:37,920
how quickly deals happen, and who gets
10945
08:54:35,840 --> 08:54:39,920
access. So, what does all of this mean
10946
08:54:37,920 --> 08:54:41,920
for you as an investor or future home
10947
08:54:39,920 --> 08:54:43,520
buyer? It means new opportunities are
10948
08:54:41,920 --> 08:54:45,280
emerging. Opportunities [music] to
10949
08:54:43,520 --> 08:54:47,200
leverage your crypto holdings.
10950
08:54:45,280 --> 08:54:49,440
Opportunities to participate in
10951
08:54:47,200 --> 08:54:50,878
international markets more easily.
10952
08:54:49,440 --> 08:54:55,398
Opportunities [music] to acquire
10953
08:54:50,878 --> 08:54:55,398
property faster and more efficiently.
10954
08:54:58,644 --> 08:55:00,664
[music]
10955
08:55:01,520 --> 08:55:04,520
for
10956
08:55:12,398 --> 08:55:14,418
[music]
10957
08:55:31,040 --> 08:55:34,040
Fore
10958
08:55:41,876 --> 08:55:43,894
[music]
10959
08:55:45,600 --> 08:55:48,760
real estate
10960
08:55:49,080 --> 08:55:51,100
[music]
10961
08:55:54,558 --> 08:55:56,994
system. [music]
10962
08:55:59,440 --> 08:56:03,544
Fore
10963
08:56:01,526 --> 08:56:03,544
[music]
10964
08:56:25,680 --> 08:56:29,090
real estate. [snorts]
10965
08:56:34,878 --> 08:56:39,280
But like any emerging [music] space,
10966
08:56:37,280 --> 08:56:41,480
education is key. Working with
10967
08:56:39,280 --> 08:56:43,120
crypto-friendly agents, attorneys,
10968
08:56:41,480 --> 08:56:44,798
[music] and escrow companies is
10969
08:56:43,120 --> 08:56:46,878
essential.
10970
08:56:44,798 --> 08:56:48,558
Understanding your local regulations is
10971
08:56:46,878 --> 08:56:50,318
crucial, and ensuring the security of
10972
08:56:48,558 --> 08:56:53,318
your crypto wallet is absolutely
10973
08:56:50,318 --> 08:56:53,318
non-negotiable.
10974
08:56:55,890 --> 08:57:00,280
>> [music]
10975
08:56:57,280 --> 08:57:00,280
>> for
10976
08:57:03,096 --> 08:57:08,360
[music]
10977
08:57:04,958 --> 08:57:08,360
sophistic. Finan.
10978
08:57:13,840 --> 08:57:16,840
for
10979
08:57:35,846 --> 08:57:37,866
[music]
10980
08:57:40,798 --> 08:57:45,360
companion
10981
08:57:43,280 --> 08:57:45,360
moment.
10982
08:57:53,360 --> 08:57:55,550
Finances. [music]
10983
08:58:02,702 --> 08:58:04,720
[music]
10984
08:58:14,958 --> 08:58:17,958
Absolute
10985
08:58:20,318 --> 08:58:23,318
maximos.
10986
08:58:28,246 --> 08:58:30,266
[music]
10987
08:58:35,452 --> 08:58:37,470
[music]
10988
08:58:42,656 --> 08:58:44,676
>> [music]
10989
08:58:50,518 --> 08:58:52,538
[music]
10990
08:58:57,200 --> 08:59:01,200
>> The cryptocurrency market has entered
10991
08:58:59,120 --> 08:59:03,600
the opening days of 2026 with [music]
10992
08:59:01,200 --> 08:59:06,478
renewed momentum. After a volatile end
10993
08:59:03,600 --> 08:59:08,080
to 2025, prices across major digital
10994
08:59:06,478 --> 08:59:09,760
assets have moved sharply higher,
10995
08:59:08,080 --> 08:59:11,120
drawing attention from both retail
10996
08:59:09,760 --> 08:59:13,920
traders and [music] institutional
10997
08:59:11,120 --> 08:59:15,760
investors. In early January, the total
10998
08:59:13,920 --> 08:59:18,318
cryptocurrency market capitalization
10999
08:59:15,760 --> 08:59:20,398
climbed to around $3.2 trillion,
11000
08:59:18,318 --> 08:59:22,398
according to aggregated data from major
11001
08:59:20,398 --> 08:59:24,638
market trackers. This represents a
11002
08:59:22,398 --> 08:59:26,398
meaningful rebound from late 2025
11003
08:59:24,638 --> 08:59:28,240
levels, with the market adding hundreds
11004
08:59:26,398 --> 08:59:30,080
of billions of dollars in value over a
11005
08:59:28,240 --> 08:59:32,000
relatively short period. While exact
11006
08:59:30,080 --> 08:59:33,440
figures vary, the direction is clear.
11007
08:59:32,000 --> 08:59:35,040
Capital has returned to the crypto
11008
08:59:33,440 --> 08:59:36,798
market at the start of the year. At the
11009
08:59:35,040 --> 08:59:39,360
center of this move is Bitcoin, which
11010
08:59:36,798 --> 08:59:41,760
rallied toward the $93,000 level in the
11011
08:59:39,360 --> 08:59:43,360
first week of January. As the largest
11012
08:59:41,760 --> 08:59:45,600
and most influential [music] digital
11013
08:59:43,360 --> 08:59:47,200
asset, Bitcoin continues to act as the
11014
08:59:45,600 --> 08:59:48,638
market's primary anchor, and its
11015
08:59:47,200 --> 08:59:50,718
strength has helped lift sentiment
11016
08:59:48,638 --> 08:59:52,478
across the broader ecosystem.
11017
08:59:50,718 --> 08:59:54,638
Historically, [music] strong Bitcoin
11018
08:59:52,478 --> 08:59:56,878
performance has often preceded periods
11019
08:59:54,638 --> 08:59:59,360
of increased activity in alternative
11020
08:59:56,878 --> 09:00:00,798
cryptocurrencies, and early 2026 [music]
11021
08:59:59,360 --> 09:00:02,878
appears to be following a similar
11022
09:00:00,798 --> 09:00:04,878
pattern. Another key factor has been
11023
09:00:02,878 --> 09:00:06,080
renewed institutional participation,
11024
09:00:04,878 --> 09:00:07,920
particularly through spot [music]
11025
09:00:06,080 --> 09:00:10,318
Bitcoin and Ethereum exchange traded
11026
09:00:07,920 --> 09:00:12,558
funds. Reports from early January
11027
09:00:10,318 --> 09:00:14,318
indicate notable ETF inflows, suggesting
11028
09:00:12,558 --> 09:00:16,160
that traditional investors are once
11029
09:00:14,318 --> 09:00:18,240
again increasing exposure to digital
11030
09:00:16,160 --> 09:00:19,598
assets. The current momentum appears to
11031
09:00:18,240 --> 09:00:21,920
be driven by a combination of factors,
11032
09:00:19,598 --> 09:00:24,558
[music] including Bitcoin's price
11033
09:00:21,920 --> 09:00:26,558
recovery, increased ETF inflows,
11034
09:00:24,558 --> 09:00:28,080
improved global risk sentiment,
11035
09:00:26,558 --> 09:00:30,558
expectations of more supportive
11036
09:00:28,080 --> 09:00:32,958
regulatory and macroeconomic conditions.
11037
09:00:30,558 --> 09:00:34,798
As 2026 begins, the cryptocurrency
11038
09:00:32,958 --> 09:00:36,958
market finds itself at a familiar
11039
09:00:34,798 --> 09:00:38,718
crossroads. Renewed optimism balanced
11040
09:00:36,958 --> 09:00:40,478
against persistent uncertainty. Whether
11041
09:00:38,718 --> 09:00:42,160
this early strength marks the beginning
11042
09:00:40,478 --> 09:00:43,840
of a sustained trend or simply [music]
11043
09:00:42,160 --> 09:00:45,840
another chapter in crypto's cyclical
11044
09:00:43,840 --> 09:00:48,478
nature is a question that only time will
11045
09:00:45,840 --> 09:00:51,200
answer. For now, [music] the message
11046
09:00:48,478 --> 09:00:53,200
from the market is clear. Crypto is once
11047
09:00:51,200 --> 09:00:54,718
again commanding attention. If you
11048
09:00:53,200 --> 09:00:56,318
approach crypto real estate with
11049
09:00:54,718 --> 09:00:59,120
knowledge and preparation, the [music]
11050
09:00:56,318 --> 09:01:01,840
rewards can be extraordinary. Bitcoin
11051
09:00:59,120 --> 09:01:03,680
the bricks isn't just a catchy phrase.
11052
09:01:01,840 --> 09:01:06,000
It's the future of real estate
11053
09:01:03,680 --> 09:01:07,920
investment. If you want to stay ahead of
11054
09:01:06,000 --> 09:01:10,240
the curve, now's the [music] time to
11055
09:01:07,920 --> 09:01:13,240
learn how crypto can open doors.
11056
09:01:10,240 --> 09:01:13,240
Literally.
11057
09:01:18,548 --> 09:01:20,568
[music]
11058
09:01:22,798 --> 09:01:25,798
important
11059
09:01:29,030 --> 09:01:31,048
[music]
11060
09:01:36,888 --> 09:01:38,908
[music]
11061
09:01:49,040 --> 09:01:52,664
technology.
11062
09:01:50,644 --> 09:01:52,664
>> [music]
11063
09:02:07,020 --> 09:02:09,040
[music]
11064
09:02:10,160 --> 09:02:14,000
>> From digital coins to physical assets,
11065
09:02:12,318 --> 09:02:16,080
from online wallets to real world
11066
09:02:14,000 --> 09:02:18,160
property lines, cryptocurrency is
11067
09:02:16,080 --> 09:02:19,680
reshaping how we buy, sell, and think
11068
09:02:18,160 --> 09:02:21,440
about real estate.
11069
09:02:19,680 --> 09:02:23,840
We are witnessing the merging of two
11070
09:02:21,440 --> 09:02:25,440
worlds. The oldest asset on earth and
11071
09:02:23,840 --> 09:02:27,600
one of the newest [music] technological
11072
09:02:25,440 --> 09:02:29,944
inventions of our time. And as the
11073
09:02:27,600 --> 09:02:32,240
future unfolds, only one question
11074
09:02:29,944 --> 09:02:35,184
[music] remain. Will Bitcoin buy your
11075
09:02:32,240 --> 09:02:37,204
next home?
11076
09:02:35,184 --> 09:02:37,204
[music]
11077
09:02:42,388 --> 09:02:44,408
[music]
11078
09:03:58,798 --> 09:04:04,160
September 2008.
11079
09:04:01,680 --> 09:04:06,318
The global financial system is on the
11080
09:04:04,160 --> 09:04:09,520
verge of a total blackout. [music]
11081
09:04:06,318 --> 09:04:12,638
Layman Brothers has vanished. Meil Lynch
11082
09:04:09,520 --> 09:04:15,520
is gone. AIG is hemorrhaging [music]
11083
09:04:12,638 --> 09:04:17,840
billions every hour.
11084
09:04:15,520 --> 09:04:19,760
In Washington, the halls of the Treasury
11085
09:04:17,840 --> 09:04:23,120
are filled with the smartest minds in
11086
09:04:19,760 --> 09:04:26,000
the country. But they have a problem.
11087
09:04:23,120 --> 09:04:28,958
They are staring at a black box of toxic
11088
09:04:26,000 --> 09:04:32,000
debt worth trillions and no tools to
11089
09:04:28,958 --> 09:04:35,040
open it. There is only one person who
11090
09:04:32,000 --> 09:04:37,520
has the map. one person who spent the
11091
09:04:35,040 --> 09:04:39,760
last 20 years building a digital
11092
09:04:37,520 --> 09:04:42,478
unblinking eye that can see through the
11093
09:04:39,760 --> 09:04:44,958
wreckage. The government didn't call the
11094
09:04:42,478 --> 09:04:47,496
big banks to save the world. They needed
11095
09:04:44,958 --> 09:04:49,040
someone to handle the toxic waste.
11096
09:04:47,496 --> 09:04:51,680
[music] And there was only one man that
11097
09:04:49,040 --> 09:04:56,120
could lead through that darkness.
11098
09:04:51,680 --> 09:04:56,120
They called Larry Frink.
11099
09:04:57,520 --> 09:05:03,160
Larry Frink, the man behind Black Rock.
11100
09:05:03,920 --> 09:05:10,398
Today, he manages more money than the
11101
09:05:06,000 --> 09:05:12,638
GDP of almost every nation on Earth, $14
11102
09:05:10,398 --> 09:05:14,638
trillion.
11103
09:05:12,638 --> 09:05:16,558
But before he was the shadow sovereign
11104
09:05:14,638 --> 09:05:18,638
of Wall [music] Street, he was a man who
11105
09:05:16,558 --> 09:05:21,556
lost everything.
11106
09:05:18,638 --> 09:05:22,398
Who is Larry Frink? Lawrence D.Fin,
11107
09:05:21,556 --> 09:05:24,798
[music]
11108
09:05:22,398 --> 09:05:26,796
also known as Larry Frink, is one of the
11109
09:05:24,798 --> 09:05:26,878
co-founders of Black Rockck.
11110
09:05:26,796 --> 09:05:29,920
>> [music]
11111
09:05:26,878 --> 09:05:32,160
>> He is also the chairman and CEO of the
11112
09:05:29,920 --> 09:05:34,958
company, the largest money management
11113
09:05:32,160 --> 09:05:37,120
firm in the world. It's the first time
11114
09:05:34,958 --> 09:05:39,760
in history a [music] company manages to
11115
09:05:37,120 --> 09:05:42,638
reach such a milestone and gives a clear
11116
09:05:39,760 --> 09:05:44,160
picture of how Black Rockck operates.
11117
09:05:42,638 --> 09:05:46,958
not just [music] a traditional
11118
09:05:44,160 --> 09:05:48,478
investment bank but as a central pillar
11119
09:05:46,958 --> 09:05:51,200
of the global financial [music]
11120
09:05:48,478 --> 09:05:53,440
infrastructure where its sheer scale
11121
09:05:51,200 --> 09:05:55,280
allows it to influence economies and
11122
09:05:53,440 --> 09:05:59,680
industries [music] at a level previously
11123
09:05:55,280 --> 09:06:02,240
reserved only for nation states.
11124
09:05:59,680 --> 09:06:04,878
Founded in [music] 1988 as an investment
11125
09:06:02,240 --> 09:06:07,680
firm that prioritized risk management
11126
09:06:04,878 --> 09:06:09,918
with 11.5 to$14 [music]
11127
09:06:07,680 --> 09:06:12,878
trillion under management, Black
11128
09:06:09,918 --> 09:06:14,398
Rockck's influence is staggering.
11129
09:06:12,878 --> 09:06:17,040
BlackRock is a top [music] three
11130
09:06:14,398 --> 09:06:21,160
shareholder in nearly every company in
11131
09:06:17,040 --> 09:06:24,238
the S&P 500 from Apple to Exxon, from
11132
09:06:21,160 --> 09:06:27,278
[music] Microsoft to Nestle. They don't
11133
09:06:24,238 --> 09:06:29,122
just invest in the market, they are the
11134
09:06:27,278 --> 09:06:31,918
market. [music]
11135
09:06:29,122 --> 09:06:34,160
But its reach is personal. It holds the
11136
09:06:31,918 --> 09:06:37,200
retirement dreams of [music] over 35
11137
09:06:34,160 --> 09:06:39,918
million Americans. This is the story of
11138
09:06:37,200 --> 09:06:42,160
how a kid from a California shoe store
11139
09:06:39,918 --> 09:06:46,800
became the custodian of the world's
11140
09:06:42,160 --> 09:06:47,918
wealth. But who is Larry Frink? Lawrence
11141
09:06:46,800 --> 09:06:50,398
Douglas Frink [music]
11142
09:06:47,918 --> 09:06:51,950
entered the world on November the 2nd,
11143
09:06:50,398 --> 09:06:54,718
1952.
11144
09:06:51,950 --> 09:06:56,878
[music] Born in Los Angeles, California,
11145
09:06:54,718 --> 09:06:59,122
he was raised in a Jewish family in the
11146
09:06:56,878 --> 09:07:01,122
heart of San Fernando Valley, the
11147
09:06:59,122 --> 09:07:03,520
quintessential [music] American suburb
11148
09:07:01,122 --> 09:07:05,704
of Vano.
11149
09:07:03,520 --> 09:07:08,480
His home was a balance of academic
11150
09:07:05,704 --> 09:07:10,290
[music] discipline and retail grit. His
11151
09:07:08,480 --> 09:07:12,398
mother, Leela, was an English professor
11152
09:07:10,290 --> 09:07:14,238
[music] who valued the power of language
11153
09:07:12,398 --> 09:07:15,680
and education.
11154
09:07:14,238 --> 09:07:18,000
And long before he pulled the [music]
11155
09:07:15,680 --> 09:07:20,160
strings of the global economy, Larry
11156
09:07:18,000 --> 09:07:23,278
Frink was learning the value of money on
11157
09:07:20,160 --> 09:07:26,320
a much smaller scale. His father's shoe
11158
09:07:23,278 --> 09:07:27,598
store in Vano, where he spent evenings
11159
09:07:26,320 --> 09:07:30,640
helping and learning the [music]
11160
09:07:27,598 --> 09:07:32,878
business. As one of three children,
11161
09:07:30,640 --> 09:07:35,040
Larry grew up in a household where hard
11162
09:07:32,878 --> 09:07:36,878
work wasn't [music] just encouraged, it
11163
09:07:35,040 --> 09:07:38,718
was the baseline.
11164
09:07:36,878 --> 09:07:40,960
While he often joked [music] he wasn't
11165
09:07:38,718 --> 09:07:43,122
the smartest in the room, it was this
11166
09:07:40,960 --> 09:07:45,278
specific combination of his mother's
11167
09:07:43,122 --> 09:07:47,680
intellectual curiosity [music] and his
11168
09:07:45,278 --> 09:07:50,078
father's mainstream business sense that
11169
09:07:47,680 --> 09:07:53,200
would eventually form the DNA of a
11170
09:07:50,078 --> 09:07:54,878
global financial giant. While the future
11171
09:07:53,200 --> 09:07:56,558
titans of Wall Street were rubbing
11172
09:07:54,878 --> 09:08:00,558
elbows in the marble halls [music] of
11173
09:07:56,558 --> 09:08:04,480
Harvard or Yale, Think was a brewin. In
11174
09:08:00,558 --> 09:08:07,122
1970, [music] Larry arrived at UCLA. For
11175
09:08:04,480 --> 09:08:09,918
a young man from Vanoise, this wasn't
11176
09:08:07,122 --> 09:08:11,680
just a local university. It was a world
11177
09:08:09,918 --> 09:08:13,360
of ideas.
11178
09:08:11,680 --> 09:08:16,078
But it was in his [music] final years
11179
09:08:13,360 --> 09:08:17,918
that the trajectory of his life shifted.
11180
09:08:16,078 --> 09:08:20,238
He immersed himself in political
11181
09:08:17,918 --> 09:08:21,918
science, learning how power moves
11182
09:08:20,238 --> 09:08:23,680
through nations.
11183
09:08:21,918 --> 09:08:26,640
But he soon realized that in the [music]
11184
09:08:23,680 --> 09:08:28,238
modern world, power follows the money.
11185
09:08:26,640 --> 09:08:30,320
This led him to the Anderson [music]
11186
09:08:28,238 --> 09:08:32,820
School of Management, specializing in
11187
09:08:30,320 --> 09:08:34,398
real estate. It was here that he began
11188
09:08:32,820 --> 09:08:37,758
[music] to see the world through the
11189
09:08:34,398 --> 09:08:39,680
lens of assets and yields.
11190
09:08:37,758 --> 09:08:41,988
This public education gave him a
11191
09:08:39,680 --> 09:08:43,758
different edge. While his peers at
11192
09:08:41,988 --> 09:08:45,598
[music] private East Coast schools were
11193
09:08:43,758 --> 09:08:47,758
being groomed for traditional corporate
11194
09:08:45,598 --> 09:08:50,320
roles, Larry [music] was developing the
11195
09:08:47,758 --> 09:08:52,558
outsers's eye, perspective that allowed
11196
09:08:50,320 --> 09:08:57,398
him to see opportunities in the messy,
11197
09:08:52,558 --> 09:08:57,398
unpolished corners of the bond market.
11198
09:08:58,000 --> 09:09:03,758
He graduated in 1976, [music] not with a
11199
09:09:01,278 --> 09:09:05,680
silver spoon, but with a California bred
11200
09:09:03,758 --> 09:09:07,278
ambition to take on the giants of
11201
09:09:05,680 --> 09:09:10,000
Manhattan.
11202
09:09:07,278 --> 09:09:11,758
He was a brewin headed for Wall Street
11203
09:09:10,000 --> 09:09:15,640
and [music] the financial world had no
11204
09:09:11,758 --> 09:09:15,640
idea what was coming.
11205
09:09:17,840 --> 09:09:22,320
The year is 1976.
11206
09:09:20,398 --> 09:09:24,480
New York City is a grit cover
11207
09:09:22,320 --> 09:09:27,200
battlefield and Larry Frink has just
11208
09:09:24,480 --> 09:09:29,520
been handed the keys to the kingdom.
11209
09:09:27,200 --> 09:09:31,758
Goldman Sachs, the most prestigious name
11210
09:09:29,520 --> 09:09:35,040
in finance back then, has practically
11211
09:09:31,758 --> 09:09:38,078
hired him. He had passed the technical
11212
09:09:35,040 --> 09:09:39,840
tests. He had charmed the partners. All
11213
09:09:38,078 --> 09:09:42,398
that remained was a rubber stamp
11214
09:09:39,840 --> 09:09:45,840
interview with human resources.
11215
09:09:42,398 --> 09:09:48,480
But Larry, Larry wasn't just confident.
11216
09:09:45,840 --> 09:09:50,320
He was impatient. When the recruiter
11217
09:09:48,480 --> 09:09:52,800
asked for his thoughts on the firm,
11218
09:09:50,320 --> 09:09:55,438
Larry didn't give a thank you. He gave a
11219
09:09:52,800 --> 09:09:57,918
consultation. He pointed out the flaws
11220
09:09:55,438 --> 09:10:01,040
in their system. At Goldman, they wanted
11221
09:09:57,918 --> 09:10:04,278
a soldier. Larry was already acting like
11222
09:10:01,040 --> 09:10:04,278
a general.
11223
09:10:05,840 --> 09:10:11,200
In that room, the rigid Golden Way
11224
09:10:08,160 --> 09:10:13,278
clashed with the unfiltered Frink way.
11225
09:10:11,200 --> 09:10:16,718
Before he could even hail a camp back to
11226
09:10:13,278 --> 09:10:19,040
his hotel, the offer was dead. The most
11227
09:10:16,718 --> 09:10:21,360
coveted job in Wall Street history had
11228
09:10:19,040 --> 09:10:23,200
vanished. All because Larry Frink
11229
09:10:21,360 --> 09:10:26,558
couldn't stop himself from trying to fix
11230
09:10:23,200 --> 09:10:29,598
a system he hadn't even joined yet. It
11231
09:10:26,558 --> 09:10:32,078
was a crushing blow. But in the shadow
11232
09:10:29,598 --> 09:10:34,320
of that rejection, a door opened at a
11233
09:10:32,078 --> 09:10:36,800
scrappy second tier firm called First
11234
09:10:34,320 --> 09:10:40,160
Boston. It was a place with less
11235
09:10:36,800 --> 09:10:42,480
prestige but more white space. At
11236
09:10:40,160 --> 09:10:45,520
Goldman, he would have been a cog in a
11237
09:10:42,480 --> 09:10:48,398
perfect machine. At First Boston, he was
11238
09:10:45,520 --> 09:10:50,398
the architect. He was given a desk, a
11239
09:10:48,398 --> 09:10:52,718
telephone, and the freedom to build
11240
09:10:50,398 --> 09:10:55,598
something entirely new, the
11241
09:10:52,718 --> 09:10:58,320
mortgagebacked security. He didn't know
11242
09:10:55,598 --> 09:11:00,960
it yet, but that recruiters know was the
11243
09:10:58,320 --> 09:11:05,960
foundation upon which the $14 trillion
11244
09:11:00,960 --> 09:11:05,960
empire of Black Rock would be built.
11245
09:11:10,020 --> 09:11:14,238
[music]
11246
09:11:10,960 --> 09:11:17,278
It's 1976 when Larry Frink arrives at
11247
09:11:14,238 --> 09:11:19,278
First Boston. At the time, the firm was
11248
09:11:17,278 --> 09:11:21,598
the scrappy underdog of investment
11249
09:11:19,278 --> 09:11:25,278
banking. It [music] wasn't as stiff as
11250
09:11:21,598 --> 09:11:27,520
Morgan Stanley or as elitist as Goldman.
11251
09:11:25,278 --> 09:11:30,480
It was the perfect laboratory for a man
11252
09:11:27,520 --> 09:11:33,040
who didn't fit the mold. Larry was
11253
09:11:30,480 --> 09:11:35,360
assigned to the bond department. Back
11254
09:11:33,040 --> 09:11:38,078
then, bonds were considered the boring
11255
09:11:35,360 --> 09:11:41,680
corner of finance. It was where you went
11256
09:11:38,078 --> 09:11:44,398
to retire. Stocks were sexy. Bonds were
11257
09:11:41,680 --> 09:11:47,520
for grandmothers. But Larry saw
11258
09:11:44,398 --> 09:11:49,758
something everyone else missed. [music]
11259
09:11:47,520 --> 09:11:52,480
He looked at the American dream. the
11260
09:11:49,758 --> 09:11:55,438
suburban house, the white picket fence,
11261
09:11:52,480 --> 09:11:58,398
the 30-year mortgage, and he saw a math
11262
09:11:55,438 --> 09:12:00,878
problem. He realized that if you took
11263
09:11:58,398 --> 09:12:02,320
thousands of individual home mortgages,
11264
09:12:00,878 --> 09:12:04,718
bundled [music] them together like a
11265
09:12:02,320 --> 09:12:07,360
deck of cards, and sold slices of that
11266
09:12:04,718 --> 09:12:09,200
deck to investors, [music] you created a
11267
09:12:07,360 --> 09:12:12,078
money machine.
11268
09:12:09,200 --> 09:12:13,598
This was the birth of the securitization
11269
09:12:12,078 --> 09:12:16,000
market.
11270
09:12:13,598 --> 09:12:18,640
What Larry Frink helped create was more
11271
09:12:16,000 --> 09:12:22,200
than a financial product. It was a
11272
09:12:18,640 --> 09:12:22,200
structural shift.
11273
09:12:22,558 --> 09:12:27,520
Securitization didn't just bundle
11274
09:12:24,718 --> 09:12:29,040
mortgages. It separated risk from
11275
09:12:27,520 --> 09:12:31,278
reality.
11276
09:12:29,040 --> 09:12:32,718
For the first time, financial value
11277
09:12:31,278 --> 09:12:35,758
could travel [music] faster than the
11278
09:12:32,718 --> 09:12:37,598
underlying economy that supported it. A
11279
09:12:35,758 --> 09:12:39,840
house in California became [music] a
11280
09:12:37,598 --> 09:12:42,238
line in a spreadsheet in New York, which
11281
09:12:39,840 --> 09:12:45,200
became a yield sold to an investor in
11282
09:12:42,238 --> 09:12:48,320
Tokyo. Risk no longer lived where
11283
09:12:45,200 --> 09:12:50,718
decisions were made. It was abstracted,
11284
09:12:48,320 --> 09:12:53,438
sliced, repackaged, and distributed
11285
09:12:50,718 --> 09:12:55,598
across the system. This was the moment
11286
09:12:53,438 --> 09:12:58,238
when finance stopped reflecting the real
11287
09:12:55,598 --> 09:13:01,040
economy and began building a parallel
11288
09:12:58,238 --> 09:13:03,360
one. A system that could grow without
11289
09:13:01,040 --> 09:13:05,438
limits as long as everyone believed the
11290
09:13:03,360 --> 09:13:08,238
models were [music] right. And for a
11291
09:13:05,438 --> 09:13:10,398
while, they were.
11292
09:13:08,238 --> 09:13:12,480
By the early 80s, [music] Larry was the
11293
09:13:10,398 --> 09:13:15,278
golden boy. He wasn't just hitting
11294
09:13:12,480 --> 09:13:17,520
targets, he was shattering them. In one
11295
09:13:15,278 --> 09:13:20,078
year, his department was responsible for
11296
09:13:17,520 --> 09:13:23,200
nearly onethird of First Boston's total
11297
09:13:20,078 --> 09:13:25,360
profits. At age 31, he became the
11298
09:13:23,200 --> 09:13:28,398
youngest managing director the firm had
11299
09:13:25,360 --> 09:13:30,878
ever seen. He was earning millions. He
11300
09:13:28,398 --> 09:13:33,680
was the successor, the Prodigy, the man
11301
09:13:30,878 --> 09:13:36,086
who could do no wrong. He had moved to
11302
09:13:33,680 --> 09:13:38,238
his family to a sprawling estate. He
11303
09:13:36,086 --> 09:13:40,398
[music] was flying private. He had
11304
09:13:38,238 --> 09:13:43,398
conquered the grit cover battlefield of
11305
09:13:40,398 --> 09:13:43,398
Manhattan.
11306
09:13:43,918 --> 09:13:48,320
But in the world of high finance, the
11307
09:13:46,078 --> 09:13:51,320
higher you fly, the thinner the air
11308
09:13:48,320 --> 09:13:51,320
becomes.
11309
09:13:52,878 --> 09:13:57,122
Larry was making hundreds of millions
11310
09:13:54,800 --> 09:14:00,000
for the bank. But there was a ghost in
11311
09:13:57,122 --> 09:14:03,918
the machine, a variable he hadn't
11312
09:14:00,000 --> 09:14:06,238
accounted for. The year was 1986.
11313
09:14:03,918 --> 09:14:08,960
Larry had made a massive bet on interest
11314
09:14:06,238 --> 09:14:12,558
rates. He believed they would stay
11315
09:14:08,960 --> 09:14:14,558
stable. He was so sure of his math, so
11316
09:14:12,558 --> 09:14:16,558
confident in his track record that he
11317
09:14:14,558 --> 09:14:18,800
didn't realize the ground was shifting
11318
09:14:16,558 --> 09:14:20,800
beneath his feet.
11319
09:14:18,800 --> 09:14:23,040
In just 3 months, the Golden Boy
11320
09:14:20,800 --> 09:14:24,000
department went from profit to a
11321
09:14:23,040 --> 09:14:28,000
catastrophic [music]
11322
09:14:24,000 --> 09:14:30,320
$100 million loss. In the 80s, 100
11323
09:14:28,000 --> 09:14:32,878
million wasn't just a loss, it was a
11324
09:14:30,320 --> 09:14:34,960
national [music] scandal. Overnight, the
11325
09:14:32,878 --> 09:14:37,918
man who was supposed to run the bank was
11326
09:14:34,960 --> 09:14:39,840
a pariah. The phones stopped ringing.
11327
09:14:37,918 --> 09:14:42,480
The friends on the trading floor looked
11328
09:14:39,840 --> 09:14:44,640
away when he walked by. He had been the
11329
09:14:42,480 --> 09:14:47,438
smartest man in the room until he
11330
09:14:44,640 --> 09:14:49,680
wasn't. He would later describe this
11331
09:14:47,438 --> 09:14:52,878
moment as the most painful experience of
11332
09:14:49,680 --> 09:14:55,520
my life. But as he sat in the ruins of
11333
09:14:52,878 --> 09:14:57,918
his reputation, Larry Frink wasn't just
11334
09:14:55,520 --> 09:15:00,960
mourning his career. He was obsessed
11335
09:14:57,918 --> 09:15:03,040
with [music] one question. How did I not
11336
09:15:00,960 --> 09:15:05,520
see the risk?
11337
09:15:03,040 --> 09:15:08,238
That obsession, the fear of the unknown
11338
09:15:05,520 --> 09:15:11,558
variable would become the cornerstone of
11339
09:15:08,238 --> 09:15:11,558
Black Rockck.
11340
09:15:14,640 --> 09:15:20,878
By 1983, Larry wasn't just selling
11341
09:15:17,438 --> 09:15:22,320
bonds, he was a pioneer of the CMO,
11342
09:15:20,878 --> 09:15:25,320
collateralized [music] mortgage
11343
09:15:22,320 --> 09:15:25,320
obligation.
11344
09:15:25,520 --> 09:15:30,480
Think of it like a waterfall. Larry took
11345
09:15:28,320 --> 09:15:33,438
thousands of mortgages and sliced them
11346
09:15:30,480 --> 09:15:36,160
into tranches. Some investors took the
11347
09:15:33,438 --> 09:15:38,718
top slice, [music] low risk, low reward.
11348
09:15:36,160 --> 09:15:41,520
Others took the bottom, high risk, high
11349
09:15:38,718 --> 09:15:45,360
yield. It was a masterpiece of financial
11350
09:15:41,520 --> 09:15:48,078
engineering. It made the illquid liquid.
11351
09:15:45,360 --> 09:15:50,398
It made First Boston the center of the
11352
09:15:48,078 --> 09:15:52,558
universe.
11353
09:15:50,398 --> 09:15:55,520
But there was a flaw, a tiny
11354
09:15:52,558 --> 09:15:57,520
mathematical ghost in his models.
11355
09:15:55,520 --> 09:15:59,840
Larry's team had predicted that interest
11356
09:15:57,520 --> 09:16:02,320
rates would rise and they hedged their
11357
09:15:59,840 --> 09:16:05,360
bets accordingly. But in the second
11358
09:16:02,320 --> 09:16:07,680
quarter of 1986, rates did something the
11359
09:16:05,360 --> 09:16:09,278
models said was impossible. They
11360
09:16:07,680 --> 09:16:11,040
plummeted
11361
09:16:09,278 --> 09:16:13,598
because they didn't have a system to
11362
09:16:11,040 --> 09:16:16,160
track their realtime exposure. Larry was
11363
09:16:13,598 --> 09:16:19,200
flying blind. He was the pilot of a
11364
09:16:16,160 --> 09:16:21,360
Boeing 747 trying to land in a storm
11365
09:16:19,200 --> 09:16:23,840
using nothing but a compass and a
11366
09:16:21,360 --> 09:16:25,734
prayer. By the time he realized the
11367
09:16:23,840 --> 09:16:28,480
engines were on fire, the plane had
11368
09:16:25,734 --> 09:16:30,000
[music] already hit the mountain. $100
11369
09:16:28,480 --> 09:16:33,320
million.
11370
09:16:30,000 --> 09:16:33,320
all gone.
11371
09:16:35,520 --> 09:16:40,800
He wasn't just fired, he was erased.
11372
09:16:38,718 --> 09:16:43,840
After the dust settled, Larry found
11373
09:16:40,800 --> 09:16:45,360
himself in a peculiar kind of exile. He
11374
09:16:43,840 --> 09:16:48,000
wasn't just unemployed, [music]
11375
09:16:45,360 --> 09:16:50,640
he was haunted. He realized that the
11376
09:16:48,000 --> 09:16:54,000
$100 million loss wasn't a failure of
11377
09:16:50,640 --> 09:16:56,160
talent, it was a failure of vision. What
11378
09:16:54,000 --> 09:16:58,160
happened in [music] 1986 wasn't a
11379
09:16:56,160 --> 09:17:01,200
personal miscalculation.
11380
09:16:58,160 --> 09:17:03,598
It was a systemic blindness.
11381
09:17:01,200 --> 09:17:04,640
At the time, every major financial
11382
09:17:03,598 --> 09:17:07,278
institution [music]
11383
09:17:04,640 --> 09:17:10,558
operated the same way. Positions were
11384
09:17:07,278 --> 09:17:13,438
fragmented. Exposure was estimated, not
11385
09:17:10,558 --> 09:17:15,758
measured. Risk was inferred after the
11386
09:17:13,438 --> 09:17:18,078
fact. Banks knew what they bought
11387
09:17:15,758 --> 09:17:21,200
yesterday, but not what it was worth
11388
09:17:18,078 --> 09:17:23,278
right now. The system rewarded speed,
11389
09:17:21,200 --> 09:17:25,360
volume, and confidence, not
11390
09:17:23,278 --> 09:17:28,320
understanding. And as long as [music]
11391
09:17:25,360 --> 09:17:30,640
markets moved slowly, the illusion held.
11392
09:17:28,320 --> 09:17:32,160
But once volatility entered the market,
11393
09:17:30,640 --> 09:17:36,160
no one truly knew where [music] the
11394
09:17:32,160 --> 09:17:38,160
danger was or how large it had become.
11395
09:17:36,160 --> 09:17:40,718
Larry didn't just lose money. [music] He
11396
09:17:38,160 --> 09:17:43,520
realized the entire financial system was
11397
09:17:40,718 --> 09:17:45,840
flying without instruments. Wall Street
11398
09:17:43,520 --> 09:17:47,122
was essentially a collection of blind
11399
09:17:45,840 --> 09:17:50,480
giants. [music]
11400
09:17:47,122 --> 09:17:53,040
Every major firm, Goldman, Layman,
11401
09:17:50,480 --> 09:17:55,680
Merrill Lynch, was standing just 1 in
11402
09:17:53,040 --> 09:17:58,878
away from total collapse at any given
11403
09:17:55,680 --> 09:18:02,160
second. Why? Because they didn't
11404
09:17:58,878 --> 09:18:05,680
actually know what they owned. This was
11405
09:18:02,160 --> 09:18:08,078
information blindness.
11406
09:18:05,680 --> 09:18:10,398
In the 1980s, you knew what you bought
11407
09:18:08,078 --> 09:18:13,598
yesterday, but you had no idea what it
11408
09:18:10,398 --> 09:18:15,840
was worth right now. A sudden shift in
11409
09:18:13,598 --> 09:18:18,558
interest rates or a political [music]
11410
09:18:15,840 --> 09:18:20,320
coup across the ocean could vaporize a
11411
09:18:18,558 --> 09:18:23,036
billion dollars before the morning
11412
09:18:20,320 --> 09:18:23,036
coffee was poured. [music]
11413
09:18:23,278 --> 09:18:29,200
Larry understood a terrifying truth. The
11414
09:18:26,558 --> 09:18:32,480
entire global financial system was built
11415
09:18:29,200 --> 09:18:34,398
on a foundation of guesswork.
11416
09:18:32,480 --> 09:18:37,840
It hit him with the force of an
11417
09:18:34,398 --> 09:18:39,680
epiphany. If he could build a brain, a
11418
09:18:37,840 --> 09:18:42,078
machine that could see the risk that
11419
09:18:39,680 --> 09:18:44,878
humans were too slow to calculate, he
11420
09:18:42,078 --> 09:18:46,640
wouldn't just be a banker. He would be
11421
09:18:44,878 --> 09:18:49,598
the only man in the world with a
11422
09:18:46,640 --> 09:18:51,680
flashlight in a dark room. This
11423
09:18:49,598 --> 09:18:54,398
realization changed his entire
11424
09:18:51,680 --> 09:18:56,000
philosophy of investing. He stopped
11425
09:18:54,398 --> 09:18:58,800
looking for the big score and [music]
11426
09:18:56,000 --> 09:19:01,122
started looking for the safe passage. He
11427
09:18:58,800 --> 09:19:05,040
didn't want to beat the market anymore.
11428
09:19:01,122 --> 09:19:07,438
He wanted to measure [music] it.
11429
09:19:05,040 --> 09:19:10,718
He would later tell his partners, "We
11430
09:19:07,438 --> 09:19:14,320
are never going to be blind again." That
11431
09:19:10,718 --> 09:19:16,080
vow, born from the humiliation of 1986,
11432
09:19:14,320 --> 09:19:19,200
became the blueprint for [music] a new
11433
09:19:16,080 --> 09:19:21,840
kind of firm. A firm that didn't rely on
11434
09:19:19,200 --> 09:19:26,520
the ego of a star trader, but on the
11435
09:19:21,840 --> 09:19:26,520
cold, unblinking eye of technology.
11436
09:19:31,276 --> 09:19:37,276
Larry Frink was a man with a vision, but
11437
09:19:34,080 --> 09:19:39,200
he was also a man with a tainted resume.
11438
09:19:37,276 --> 09:19:41,916
To the rest of Wall Street, he was the
11439
09:19:39,200 --> 09:19:44,000
guy who lost a h 100red million. But to
11440
09:19:41,916 --> 09:19:46,640
a small circle of insiders at First
11441
09:19:44,000 --> 09:19:50,000
Boston, he was the only one who truly
11442
09:19:46,640 --> 09:19:52,800
understood why it happened. He began
11443
09:19:50,000 --> 09:19:55,436
making calls. He wasn't offering high
11444
09:19:52,800 --> 09:19:58,240
salaries or flashy offices. He was
11445
09:19:55,436 --> 09:20:00,400
offering a chance to build a holy grail,
11446
09:19:58,240 --> 09:20:02,640
a financial firm where technology
11447
09:20:00,400 --> 09:20:05,680
governed the ego, not the other way
11448
09:20:02,640 --> 09:20:07,916
round. And he eventually found the right
11449
09:20:05,680 --> 09:20:10,916
people to help him build that holy
11450
09:20:07,916 --> 09:20:10,916
grail.
11451
09:20:11,520 --> 09:20:17,756
Rob Capito, the enforcer, a powerhouse
11452
09:20:15,596 --> 09:20:20,320
trader who knew the plumbing of the bomb
11453
09:20:17,756 --> 09:20:22,400
market better than anyone else. He
11454
09:20:20,320 --> 09:20:26,000
provided the muscle Larry needed to
11455
09:20:22,400 --> 09:20:29,120
execute the vision. Ben Golib, the
11456
09:20:26,000 --> 09:20:31,756
Oracle, a PhD with a mind like a
11457
09:20:29,120 --> 09:20:34,560
supercomput. While other bankers were
11458
09:20:31,756 --> 09:20:37,040
focused on lunch reservations, Golib was
11459
09:20:34,560 --> 09:20:39,756
thinking about value at risk and Monte
11460
09:20:37,040 --> 09:20:43,276
Carlo simulations.
11461
09:20:39,756 --> 09:20:45,680
Susan Wagner, the mastermind,
11462
09:20:43,276 --> 09:20:47,276
brilliant, calculating, and capable of
11463
09:20:45,680 --> 09:20:49,520
seeing structural flaws in a
11464
09:20:47,276 --> 09:20:51,840
multi-billion dollar merger before a
11465
09:20:49,520 --> 09:20:54,480
single paper was signed. Along with
11466
09:20:51,840 --> 09:20:56,720
Barbara Novik, Ralph Schlstein, Q
11467
09:20:54,480 --> 09:20:59,916
Freighter, and Keith Anderson, they
11468
09:20:56,720 --> 09:21:01,680
became the original eight. Frink wasn't
11469
09:20:59,916 --> 09:21:05,040
looking for bankers who would run after
11470
09:21:01,680 --> 09:21:08,080
the money. He wanted architects, people
11471
09:21:05,040 --> 09:21:10,080
who were tired of being blind.
11472
09:21:08,080 --> 09:21:12,720
When he found them, they met in living
11473
09:21:10,080 --> 09:21:14,560
rooms and coffee shops. They had the
11474
09:21:12,720 --> 09:21:17,596
blueprints for a system they called
11475
09:21:14,560 --> 09:21:20,320
Aladdin, an acronym for asset,
11476
09:21:17,596 --> 09:21:23,360
liability, debt, and derivative [music]
11477
09:21:20,320 --> 09:21:25,840
investment network. It was designed to
11478
09:21:23,360 --> 09:21:28,000
be the unblinking eye Larry had dreamed
11479
09:21:25,840 --> 09:21:30,080
of in his exile.
11480
09:21:28,000 --> 09:21:33,040
But a brain without a body is just a
11481
09:21:30,080 --> 09:21:36,400
dream. To build Aladdin, they needed
11482
09:21:33,040 --> 09:21:38,160
hardware. They needed offices. And most
11483
09:21:36,400 --> 09:21:40,720
importantly, they needed the one thing
11484
09:21:38,160 --> 09:21:43,276
Larry's reputation had cost him.
11485
09:21:40,720 --> 09:21:45,520
Capital. Aladdin was not designed to
11486
09:21:43,276 --> 09:21:47,916
beat the market. It was designed to
11487
09:21:45,520 --> 09:21:50,800
understand it. But its real power
11488
09:21:47,916 --> 09:21:54,080
emerged when others started using it.
11489
09:21:50,800 --> 09:21:57,200
Banks, insurance companies, pension
11490
09:21:54,080 --> 09:21:59,360
funds, sovereign institutions. As
11491
09:21:57,200 --> 09:22:01,680
Aladdin spread, something subtle
11492
09:21:59,360 --> 09:22:05,276
happened. Risk stopped [music] being
11493
09:22:01,680 --> 09:22:08,000
subjective. It became standardized. When
11494
09:22:05,276 --> 09:22:11,580
Aladdin flagged an asset as dangerous,
11495
09:22:08,000 --> 09:22:12,640
entire markets adjusted accordingly.
11496
09:22:11,580 --> 09:22:15,040
[music]
11497
09:22:12,640 --> 09:22:17,916
Not because Larry Frink said so, but
11498
09:22:15,040 --> 09:22:19,840
because the system trusted the model. At
11499
09:22:17,916 --> 09:22:22,320
that point, Black Rockck was no longer
11500
09:22:19,840 --> 09:22:24,080
just managing money. It was helping
11501
09:22:22,320 --> 09:22:27,120
define how risk itself was [music]
11502
09:22:24,080 --> 09:22:28,480
understood. And whoever defines risk
11503
09:22:27,120 --> 09:22:31,480
defines the boundaries of
11504
09:22:28,480 --> 09:22:31,480
decisionmaking.
11505
09:22:40,000 --> 09:22:45,360
Enter Steven Schwartzman. In 1988,
11506
09:22:43,276 --> 09:22:48,560
Schwartzman was the rising king of
11507
09:22:45,360 --> 09:22:52,240
private equity. His firm Blackstone was
11508
09:22:48,560 --> 09:22:54,880
aggressive, wealthy, and hungry.
11509
09:22:52,240 --> 09:22:57,428
The meeting was tense. Schwartzman knew
11510
09:22:54,880 --> 09:22:58,000
Larry's history. He knew about the 1986
11511
09:22:57,428 --> 09:23:01,436
[music]
11512
09:22:58,000 --> 09:23:05,120
disaster. But Larry didn't hide from it.
11513
09:23:01,436 --> 09:23:07,120
He used it as his primary selling point.
11514
09:23:05,120 --> 09:23:09,520
Because Larry had seen the end of the
11515
09:23:07,120 --> 09:23:12,080
world already, he knew exactly how the
11516
09:23:09,520 --> 09:23:13,840
lights went out. And because of that, he
11517
09:23:12,080 --> 09:23:16,000
was the only one who knew how to keep
11518
09:23:13,840 --> 09:23:18,720
them on.
11519
09:23:16,000 --> 09:23:20,720
Larry's pitch was revolutionary. He
11520
09:23:18,720 --> 09:23:23,916
didn't want to start a hedge fund. He
11521
09:23:20,720 --> 09:23:25,680
wanted to create a fiduciary company, a
11522
09:23:23,916 --> 09:23:27,916
firm that managed other people's money
11523
09:23:25,680 --> 09:23:31,200
with the same technological rigor
11524
09:23:27,916 --> 09:23:33,596
usually reserved for NASA. He asked for
11525
09:23:31,200 --> 09:23:36,320
a $5 million credit line and a
11526
09:23:33,596 --> 09:23:39,360
partnership. In exchange, Schwartzman
11527
09:23:36,320 --> 09:23:41,520
would own 50% of the new venture. He
11528
09:23:39,360 --> 09:23:44,000
knew he was buying cheap because he was
11529
09:23:41,520 --> 09:23:46,400
buying on a distressed asset, Frink's
11530
09:23:44,000 --> 09:23:48,320
damaged reputation.
11531
09:23:46,400 --> 09:23:50,000
But he did so betting on the idea that
11532
09:23:48,320 --> 09:23:52,080
the experience had [music] turned Larry
11533
09:23:50,000 --> 09:23:55,040
Frink into some sort of financial
11534
09:23:52,080 --> 09:23:58,320
genius.
11535
09:23:55,040 --> 09:24:00,640
The deal was done. On a Friday in March
11536
09:23:58,320 --> 09:24:02,800
1988, the team moved into [music] a
11537
09:24:00,640 --> 09:24:04,400
single cramped room within Blackstone's
11538
09:24:02,800 --> 09:24:07,040
offices.
11539
09:24:04,400 --> 09:24:09,120
They were five computers, a few folding
11540
09:24:07,040 --> 09:24:11,756
chairs, and a mountain of cables on the
11541
09:24:09,120 --> 09:24:14,080
floor. They were under the Blackstone
11542
09:24:11,756 --> 09:24:16,640
umbrella, but Larry knew that this was
11543
09:24:14,080 --> 09:24:18,960
just a temporary shelter. He didn't just
11544
09:24:16,640 --> 09:24:21,840
want [music] a department, he wanted an
11545
09:24:18,960 --> 09:24:22,560
empire. He had the money. He had the
11546
09:24:21,840 --> 09:24:24,640
team. [music]
11547
09:24:22,560 --> 09:24:26,960
And in the corner of that small room,
11548
09:24:24,640 --> 09:24:29,756
the first lines of code for Aladdin were
11549
09:24:26,960 --> 09:24:32,720
being written.
11550
09:24:29,756 --> 09:24:34,720
The information blindness was over. The
11551
09:24:32,720 --> 09:24:39,160
era of Black Rock, though it didn't have
11552
09:24:34,720 --> 09:24:39,160
that name yet, had begun.
11553
09:24:41,576 --> 09:24:45,596
[music]
11554
09:24:43,276 --> 09:24:48,160
The first office of Blackstone Financial
11555
09:24:45,596 --> 09:24:50,960
Management wasn't a glass tower. [music]
11556
09:24:48,160 --> 09:24:53,276
It was a glorified closet. Because of
11557
09:24:50,960 --> 09:24:55,200
the heat generated by the early Sun
11558
09:24:53,276 --> 09:24:56,880
Micro Systemystems workstations, [music]
11559
09:24:55,200 --> 09:25:01,680
the temperature in the room rarely
11560
09:24:56,880 --> 09:25:03,520
dropped below 80° 27° [music] C.
11561
09:25:01,680 --> 09:25:05,520
While the rest of the Blackstone group
11562
09:25:03,520 --> 09:25:07,916
was out at expensive lunches [music]
11563
09:25:05,520 --> 09:25:10,560
closing leveraged buyouts, Larry's
11564
09:25:07,916 --> 09:25:12,800
original eight were building a digital
11565
09:25:10,560 --> 09:25:14,240
fortress.
11566
09:25:12,800 --> 09:25:16,400
They [music] were the weirdos in the
11567
09:25:14,240 --> 09:25:19,520
basement. It was here that the name
11568
09:25:16,400 --> 09:25:21,840
Aladdin became a living thing. Every
11569
09:25:19,520 --> 09:25:25,040
day, Ben Golab and [music] his team fed
11570
09:25:21,840 --> 09:25:27,040
it data. Interest rates, housing prices,
11571
09:25:25,040 --> 09:25:28,880
historical crashes. They [music] were
11572
09:25:27,040 --> 09:25:34,040
teaching the machine to be afraid of
11573
09:25:28,880 --> 09:25:34,040
everything Larry hadn't seen in 1986.
11574
09:25:35,940 --> 09:25:40,400
[music]
11575
09:25:37,680 --> 09:25:42,880
By 1992, the department inside
11576
09:25:40,400 --> 09:25:44,456
Blackstone was no longer a startup. It
11577
09:25:42,880 --> 09:25:44,640
was a powerhouse.
11578
09:25:44,456 --> 09:25:48,960
>> [music]
11579
09:25:44,640 --> 09:25:50,560
>> Larry's team was managing $17 billion.
11580
09:25:48,960 --> 09:25:52,960
They weren't just a side project
11581
09:25:50,560 --> 09:25:55,588
anymore. They were a significant engine
11582
09:25:52,960 --> 09:25:58,320
of Blackstone's growth. But with success
11583
09:25:55,588 --> 09:26:00,560
[music] came a toxic byproduct,
11584
09:25:58,320 --> 09:26:03,120
identity confusion.
11585
09:26:00,560 --> 09:26:04,800
Clients were getting confused. They
11586
09:26:03,120 --> 09:26:07,276
would call Blackstone looking for
11587
09:26:04,800 --> 09:26:08,480
Larry's bond expertise or called Larry
11588
09:26:07,276 --> 09:26:10,880
looking for Schwarzman's [music]
11589
09:26:08,480 --> 09:26:13,040
buyouts. But the friction went deeper
11590
09:26:10,880 --> 09:26:15,200
than a name. It was a war of
11591
09:26:13,040 --> 09:26:18,640
philosophies. Schwartzman [music] was a
11592
09:26:15,200 --> 09:26:21,276
dealmaker. He wanted to own companies.
11593
09:26:18,640 --> 09:26:24,240
Think was a fiduciary. He wanted to
11594
09:26:21,276 --> 09:26:26,320
manage risk for others. [music]
11595
09:26:24,240 --> 09:26:28,720
The tension was similar to having two
11596
09:26:26,320 --> 09:26:30,720
predators in a cage too small to fit
11597
09:26:28,720 --> 09:26:33,916
both. The breaking point [music] came
11598
09:26:30,720 --> 09:26:36,200
over equity. Larry wanted to use stock
11599
09:26:33,916 --> 09:26:38,400
to attract and keep the original eight
11600
09:26:36,200 --> 09:26:41,040
[music] and new talent. Schwarzman,
11601
09:26:38,400 --> 09:26:43,276
holding 50% of the firm, didn't want to
11602
09:26:41,040 --> 09:26:45,040
dilute his [music] state. The
11603
09:26:43,276 --> 09:26:47,992
partnership that saved Larry's career
11604
09:26:45,040 --> 09:26:48,800
was now suffocating his vision. In 1994,
11605
09:26:47,992 --> 09:26:52,400
[music]
11606
09:26:48,800 --> 09:26:55,040
they reached the deal.
11607
09:26:52,400 --> 09:26:58,640
Schwarzman agreed to sell Blackstone for
11608
09:26:55,040 --> 09:27:00,480
$240 million. At the time, it seemed
11609
09:26:58,640 --> 09:27:02,720
like a win [music] for Schwarzman, a
11610
09:27:00,480 --> 09:27:05,020
massive return on his $5 million
11611
09:27:02,720 --> 09:27:07,276
investment. It wasn't just about money.
11612
09:27:05,020 --> 09:27:09,756
[music] It was about the spotlight.
11613
09:27:07,276 --> 09:27:12,240
Schwarzman was the king of Wall Street,
11614
09:27:09,756 --> 09:27:14,000
but his subtenant, Larry Frink, was the
11615
09:27:12,240 --> 09:27:16,720
one the New York [music] Times wanted to
11616
09:27:14,000 --> 09:27:20,080
interview. But for Larry, it was the
11617
09:27:16,720 --> 09:27:21,916
price of freedom. Schwarzman would later
11618
09:27:20,080 --> 09:27:24,800
call selling [music] Black Rock the
11619
09:27:21,916 --> 09:27:26,720
worst mistake of my career. For Larry,
11620
09:27:24,800 --> 09:27:29,436
the divorce was the moment the training
11621
09:27:26,720 --> 09:27:32,320
wheels came off. He was no longer under
11622
09:27:29,436 --> 09:27:34,000
anyone's umbrella. He was the CEO of an
11623
09:27:32,320 --> 09:27:35,596
independent firm. [music]
11624
09:27:34,000 --> 09:27:37,520
Now he just had to prove he could
11625
09:27:35,596 --> 09:27:40,520
survive the coming storm of the late
11626
09:27:37,520 --> 09:27:40,520
'9s.
11627
09:27:48,240 --> 09:27:54,080
It is 2008. The financial world was
11628
09:27:51,520 --> 09:27:56,320
experiencing a heart attack. The
11629
09:27:54,080 --> 09:27:58,640
financial smoothies that mortgage back
11630
09:27:56,320 --> 09:28:00,960
securities Larry had helped create 30
11631
09:27:58,640 --> 09:28:02,320
years earlier had turned into a global
11632
09:28:00,960 --> 09:28:04,560
poison.
11633
09:28:02,320 --> 09:28:06,560
Banks didn't know what they owned, and
11634
09:28:04,560 --> 09:28:08,880
more importantly, they didn't know what
11635
09:28:06,560 --> 09:28:10,720
their neighbors owned. Trust had
11636
09:28:08,880 --> 09:28:12,720
evaporated. [music]
11637
09:28:10,720 --> 09:28:14,480
When the US government realized the
11638
09:28:12,720 --> 09:28:16,560
economy was on the brink of a total
11639
09:28:14,480 --> 09:28:20,480
blackout, they didn't call Goldman
11640
09:28:16,560 --> 09:28:22,880
Sachs. They didn't call JP Morgan. While
11641
09:28:20,480 --> 09:28:24,800
the CEOs of Layman and Merrill were
11642
09:28:22,880 --> 09:28:26,640
begging for government checks, Larry
11643
09:28:24,800 --> 09:28:29,200
Frink [music] was the one the government
11644
09:28:26,640 --> 09:28:31,436
called to write the checks.
11645
09:28:29,200 --> 09:28:33,916
He was the only titan left standing with
11646
09:28:31,436 --> 09:28:36,000
a clean balance sheet.
11647
09:28:33,916 --> 09:28:38,080
The United States government didn't just
11648
09:28:36,000 --> 09:28:40,000
seek advice. It delegated
11649
09:28:38,080 --> 09:28:41,916
responsibility.
11650
09:28:40,000 --> 09:28:43,840
Black Rockck was tasked with valuing
11651
09:28:41,916 --> 09:28:46,240
assets [music] no one understood,
11652
09:28:43,840 --> 09:28:48,480
managing risks no one could measure, and
11653
09:28:46,240 --> 09:28:51,520
stabilizing markets that were collapsing
11654
09:28:48,480 --> 09:28:53,840
in real time.
11655
09:28:51,520 --> 09:28:57,040
This wasn't a bailout. It was an
11656
09:28:53,840 --> 09:28:58,400
outsourcing of core sovereign functions.
11657
09:28:57,040 --> 09:29:00,160
For the first time, [music] a private
11658
09:28:58,400 --> 09:29:03,200
firm played a central role in
11659
09:29:00,160 --> 09:29:05,360
maintaining global financial stability.
11660
09:29:03,200 --> 09:29:08,080
Not through political authority, but
11661
09:29:05,360 --> 09:29:10,720
through technical capability.
11662
09:29:08,080 --> 09:29:13,596
From that moment on, power was no longer
11663
09:29:10,720 --> 09:29:15,596
just about laws and institutions. It was
11664
09:29:13,596 --> 09:29:17,840
about who had the tools to see the
11665
09:29:15,596 --> 09:29:19,680
system clearly.
11666
09:29:17,840 --> 09:29:22,800
Black Rockck was hired to manage the
11667
09:29:19,680 --> 09:29:24,480
toxic waste of the crisis. They became
11668
09:29:22,800 --> 09:29:27,840
the official cleaner for the US
11669
09:29:24,480 --> 09:29:31,320
government, managing $130 billion of
11670
09:29:27,840 --> 09:29:31,320
troubled assets.
11671
09:29:31,436 --> 09:29:36,160
Suddenly, Larry Frink was the most
11672
09:29:33,840 --> 09:29:37,840
powerful man in the room, acting as an
11673
09:29:36,160 --> 09:29:39,360
adviser to the president and the
11674
09:29:37,840 --> 09:29:41,756
Treasury.
11675
09:29:39,360 --> 09:29:44,560
But while he was saving the system, he
11676
09:29:41,756 --> 09:29:46,800
saw a once-ina-lifetime opportunity to
11677
09:29:44,560 --> 09:29:49,276
dominate it. In the middle of the
11678
09:29:46,800 --> 09:29:52,080
carnage, Barclay's bank in the UK was
11679
09:29:49,276 --> 09:29:54,400
desperate for cash. They needed to sell
11680
09:29:52,080 --> 09:29:56,400
their crown jewel, a division called
11681
09:29:54,400 --> 09:29:58,880
Barclay's Global Investors, which
11682
09:29:56,400 --> 09:30:00,560
included a revolutionary product called
11683
09:29:58,880 --> 09:30:02,480
Eyesshares.
11684
09:30:00,560 --> 09:30:05,276
Eyessshares represented passive
11685
09:30:02,480 --> 09:30:08,320
investing, ETFs that track the whole
11686
09:30:05,276 --> 09:30:10,240
market rather than trying to beat it. It
11687
09:30:08,320 --> 09:30:12,960
was the ultimate expression of Larry's
11688
09:30:10,240 --> 09:30:15,596
philosophy. Stop betting on stars and
11689
09:30:12,960 --> 09:30:19,916
start owning the system. It was a
11690
09:30:15,596 --> 09:30:21,916
massive $13.5 billion gamble.
11691
09:30:19,916 --> 09:30:24,720
If the markets continue to fall, the
11692
09:30:21,916 --> 09:30:27,276
deal could sink Black Rockck. But Larry
11693
09:30:24,720 --> 09:30:29,276
knew something the others didn't. He had
11694
09:30:27,276 --> 09:30:31,520
looked into the eye of Aladdin, and
11695
09:30:29,276 --> 09:30:34,400
Aladdin told him that the bottom was
11696
09:30:31,520 --> 09:30:37,276
near. With the acquisition of Eyesshares
11697
09:30:34,400 --> 09:30:40,000
in 2009, Blackrop doubled its size
11698
09:30:37,276 --> 09:30:42,720
overnight. They weren't just a bond shop
11699
09:30:40,000 --> 09:30:45,680
anymore. They were now the largest money
11700
09:30:42,720 --> 09:30:48,320
manager on the planet. They had gone
11701
09:30:45,680 --> 09:30:50,480
into the crisis as a respected firm.
11702
09:30:48,320 --> 09:30:54,276
They came out of it as the shadow
11703
09:30:50,480 --> 09:30:54,276
government of finance.
11704
09:30:58,960 --> 09:31:04,240
By 2012, Larry Frink had built the
11705
09:31:01,520 --> 09:31:06,720
machine. He had the assets, the data,
11706
09:31:04,240 --> 09:31:08,880
and the influence. But he realized that
11707
09:31:06,720 --> 09:31:11,840
[music] being king of Wall Street wasn't
11708
09:31:08,880 --> 09:31:14,580
enough. He wanted to change the way the
11709
09:31:11,840 --> 09:31:16,320
world did business. Every January,
11710
09:31:14,580 --> 09:31:18,560
[music] a ritual began that would send
11711
09:31:16,320 --> 09:31:21,436
tremors through boardrooms from Detroit
11712
09:31:18,560 --> 09:31:23,092
to Frankfurt. Larry started writing
11713
09:31:21,436 --> 09:31:25,596
letters. They weren't just annual
11714
09:31:23,092 --> 09:31:29,000
[music] reports. They were the Black
11715
09:31:25,596 --> 09:31:29,000
Rockck Manifestos.
11716
09:31:29,596 --> 09:31:35,596
In 2018, he dropped a bomb. He told the
11717
09:31:33,360 --> 09:31:37,756
world's CEOs that if they wanted Black
11718
09:31:35,596 --> 09:31:40,800
Rockck's money, they had to prove they
11719
09:31:37,756 --> 09:31:43,596
served a social purpose. He wasn't just
11720
09:31:40,800 --> 09:31:47,596
asking for profits. He was asking for a
11721
09:31:43,596 --> 09:31:50,560
soul. He was mainstreaming ESG,
11722
09:31:47,596 --> 09:31:52,720
environmental, social, and governance.
11723
09:31:50,560 --> 09:31:55,844
And he was doing [music] it with a $10
11724
09:31:52,720 --> 09:31:56,400
trillion hammer. But Larry's new gospel
11725
09:31:55,844 --> 09:32:00,000
[music]
11726
09:31:56,400 --> 09:32:01,740
didn't sit well with everyone. By 2021,
11727
09:32:00,000 --> 09:32:03,360
the Golden Boy was finding himself
11728
09:32:01,740 --> 09:32:05,756
[music] in the middle of a two-front
11729
09:32:03,360 --> 09:32:08,960
war.
11730
09:32:05,756 --> 09:32:12,800
The ESG debate was never cultural. It
11731
09:32:08,960 --> 09:32:14,800
was economic. At its core, ESG was about
11732
09:32:12,800 --> 09:32:17,360
risk management, anticipating [music]
11733
09:32:14,800 --> 09:32:19,596
regulation, climate disruption, and
11734
09:32:17,360 --> 09:32:21,276
social instability.
11735
09:32:19,596 --> 09:32:23,360
For Black Rockck, ignoring [music] those
11736
09:32:21,276 --> 09:32:25,916
factors wasn't neutral. It was
11737
09:32:23,360 --> 09:32:28,240
dangerous. But when capital begins to
11738
09:32:25,916 --> 09:32:31,040
price the future, it also begins to
11739
09:32:28,240 --> 09:32:32,640
shape it. That's why the backlash was so
11740
09:32:31,040 --> 09:32:35,596
intense.
11741
09:32:32,640 --> 09:32:37,436
To the left, Larry was a hypocrite. They
11742
09:32:35,596 --> 09:32:39,200
called him a greenwasher because Black
11743
09:32:37,436 --> 09:32:42,000
Rockck [music] still held billions in
11744
09:32:39,200 --> 09:32:44,320
oil and gas stocks. To the right, he was
11745
09:32:42,000 --> 09:32:46,240
a globalist villain who was using other
11746
09:32:44,320 --> 09:32:49,120
people's money to [music] push a radical
11747
09:32:46,240 --> 09:32:51,120
environmental agenda. The backlash
11748
09:32:49,120 --> 09:32:54,120
turned into a full-scale political
11749
09:32:51,120 --> 09:32:54,120
assault.
11750
09:32:54,240 --> 09:32:58,960
State treasurers in Florida, Texas, and
11751
09:32:56,720 --> 09:33:01,596
Mississippi began pulling billions out
11752
09:32:58,960 --> 09:33:04,320
of Black Rockck. They accused Larry of
11753
09:33:01,596 --> 09:33:06,480
boycotting energy and violating his duty
11754
09:33:04,320 --> 09:33:08,320
to investors.
11755
09:33:06,480 --> 09:33:11,040
For the first time, the man who had
11756
09:33:08,320 --> 09:33:16,360
mastered risk found himself in a risk he
11757
09:33:11,040 --> 09:33:16,360
couldn't calculate, the culture war.
11758
09:33:17,840 --> 09:33:21,652
He told a crowd in Aspen that he was
11759
09:33:20,080 --> 09:33:22,480
ashamed to be a part of the debate.
11760
09:33:21,652 --> 09:33:24,960
[music]
11761
09:33:22,480 --> 09:33:28,000
He even stopped using the term ESG
11762
09:33:24,960 --> 09:33:29,680
altogether, calling it weaponized. He
11763
09:33:28,000 --> 09:33:32,400
had tried to become the conscience of
11764
09:33:29,680 --> 09:33:35,276
capitalism. Instead, it became its most
11765
09:33:32,400 --> 09:33:37,276
controversial target. But even as the
11766
09:33:35,276 --> 09:33:41,300
politicians shouted and the protesters
11767
09:33:37,276 --> 09:33:42,240
marched, the assets kept growing.
11768
09:33:41,300 --> 09:33:44,000
[music]
11769
09:33:42,240 --> 09:33:45,888
Because in the end, whether you loved
11770
09:33:44,000 --> 09:33:50,040
him or hated him, you couldn't escape
11771
09:33:45,888 --> 09:33:50,040
[music] the machine he built.
11772
09:33:58,000 --> 09:34:02,640
January 2026, [music]
11773
09:34:00,320 --> 09:34:04,240
the number flashes on a terminal in
11774
09:34:02,640 --> 09:34:05,756
Black Rockck's Hudson Yards
11775
09:34:04,240 --> 09:34:08,320
headquarters.
11776
09:34:05,756 --> 09:34:11,436
$14 trillion.
11777
09:34:08,320 --> 09:34:13,040
It is a number so vast it defies human
11778
09:34:11,436 --> 09:34:14,800
comprehension.
11779
09:34:13,040 --> 09:34:17,520
If Larry Frink's assets under [music]
11780
09:34:14,800 --> 09:34:19,436
management were a country's GDP, it
11781
09:34:17,520 --> 09:34:21,436
would be the third largest economy on
11782
09:34:19,436 --> 09:34:24,080
Earth, surpassed only by the [music]
11783
09:34:21,436 --> 09:34:26,320
United States and China.
11784
09:34:24,080 --> 09:34:29,200
But as Larry looks out from his office,
11785
09:34:26,320 --> 09:34:31,040
he isn't looking at stock tickers. He is
11786
09:34:29,200 --> 09:34:34,040
looking at the very bones of
11787
09:34:31,040 --> 09:34:34,040
civilization.
11788
09:34:35,596 --> 09:34:42,000
In 2024, Larry made his final most
11789
09:34:39,040 --> 09:34:44,180
aggressive pivot. He realized that the
11790
09:34:42,000 --> 09:34:46,320
next decade won't be one with bits on
11791
09:34:44,180 --> 09:34:49,360
[music] a screen, but with atoms in the
11792
09:34:46,320 --> 09:34:51,680
ground. With the 12.5 billion
11793
09:34:49,360 --> 09:34:54,160
acquisition of global infrastructure
11794
09:34:51,680 --> 09:34:57,360
partners, Larry signaled the end of the
11795
09:34:54,160 --> 09:34:59,756
old Wall Street era. Larry saw the AI
11796
09:34:57,360 --> 09:35:02,400
revolution coming. But he didn't buy the
11797
09:34:59,756 --> 09:35:06,276
chip makers. He bought the power plants
11798
09:35:02,400 --> 09:35:06,276
that feed the chips.
11799
09:35:09,200 --> 09:35:16,200
But every empire faces [music] the same
11800
09:35:11,276 --> 09:35:16,200
inevitable question. Succession.
11801
09:35:17,596 --> 09:35:21,916
For years, Wall Street has whispered
11802
09:35:19,680 --> 09:35:24,800
about who could possibly replace the man
11803
09:35:21,916 --> 09:35:27,520
who is Black [music] Rockck. Names like
11804
09:35:24,800 --> 09:35:29,520
Rob Capito, Mark Webbman, and Jennifer
11805
09:35:27,520 --> 09:35:32,480
Johnson swirl in the press. [music]
11806
09:35:29,520 --> 09:35:34,000
But the truth is more complex. Larry
11807
09:35:32,480 --> 09:35:36,480
hasn't just built a [music] company.
11808
09:35:34,000 --> 09:35:39,200
He's built an organism. A system where
11809
09:35:36,480 --> 09:35:42,000
Aladdin, now a very sophisticated AI
11810
09:35:39,200 --> 09:35:44,320
entity, handles the risk while a legion
11811
09:35:42,000 --> 09:35:47,360
of 20,000 employees, [music] executes
11812
09:35:44,320 --> 09:35:49,840
the vision. Aladdin is no longer just a
11813
09:35:47,360 --> 09:35:51,040
calculator. It is a predictive engine
11814
09:35:49,840 --> 09:35:53,756
that runs millions of [music]
11815
09:35:51,040 --> 09:35:55,596
simulations every second, anticipating
11816
09:35:53,756 --> 09:35:59,436
everything from a war in the Middle East
11817
09:35:55,596 --> 09:36:01,840
to a crop [music] failure in Brazil.
11818
09:35:59,436 --> 09:36:05,120
Some call him the king of the world.
11819
09:36:01,840 --> 09:36:06,960
Others call him the shadow architect.
11820
09:36:05,120 --> 09:36:09,436
But if you ask Larry, he'll [music] tell
11821
09:36:06,960 --> 09:36:11,520
you he's still that kid from the Vanoise
11822
09:36:09,436 --> 09:36:15,800
shoe store, just trying to make [music]
11823
09:36:11,520 --> 09:36:15,800
sure that the maths add up.
11824
09:36:16,080 --> 09:36:20,400
He took the greatest humiliation of his
11825
09:36:18,080 --> 09:36:22,480
life and turned it into a shield for the
11826
09:36:20,400 --> 09:36:24,480
global economy.
11827
09:36:22,480 --> 09:36:27,200
He taught the world that profit without
11828
09:36:24,480 --> 09:36:32,240
a plan is just a gamble and that in the
11829
09:36:27,200 --> 09:36:33,916
dark, the man with a flashlight is king.
11830
09:36:32,240 --> 09:36:36,880
There is one financial [music] question
11831
09:36:33,916 --> 09:36:39,120
the system cannot answer. What happens
11832
09:36:36,880 --> 09:36:41,680
when everyone measures risk the same
11833
09:36:39,120 --> 09:36:43,360
way? When models converge. When
11834
09:36:41,680 --> 09:36:46,400
assumptions [music] align. When
11835
09:36:43,360 --> 09:36:48,480
diversity of judgment disappears.
11836
09:36:46,400 --> 09:36:51,120
A system optimized for stability [music]
11837
09:36:48,480 --> 09:36:53,436
can become fragile. Not because it is
11838
09:36:51,120 --> 09:36:55,200
wrong but because it leaves no room for
11839
09:36:53,436 --> 09:36:57,360
the unexpected. [music]
11840
09:36:55,200 --> 09:36:59,840
When the supervisor becomes invisible
11841
09:36:57,360 --> 09:37:02,960
and the rules are embedded in code,
11842
09:36:59,840 --> 09:37:06,240
accountability becomes harder to locate,
11843
09:37:02,960 --> 09:37:08,160
the system works until it doesn't. And
11844
09:37:06,240 --> 09:37:10,720
that's why Blackprock isn't just a
11845
09:37:08,160 --> 09:37:13,360
shareholder in your company. They are
11846
09:37:10,720 --> 09:37:15,360
the landlord of your power plant, the
11847
09:37:13,360 --> 09:37:18,080
owner of your airport, [music] the
11848
09:37:15,360 --> 09:37:19,680
architect of your retirement. It is a
11849
09:37:18,080 --> 09:37:21,916
level of centralized influence [music]
11850
09:37:19,680 --> 09:37:24,800
the world has never seen in a private
11851
09:37:21,916 --> 09:37:27,276
individual. Lawrence D.Fin [music]
11852
09:37:24,800 --> 09:37:30,320
didn't just build a bank. He built the
11853
09:37:27,276 --> 09:37:32,560
unblinking eye of capitalism.
11854
09:37:30,320 --> 09:37:34,720
And as the world moves into the era of
11855
09:37:32,560 --> 09:37:37,596
AI, climate shift, and global
11856
09:37:34,720 --> 09:37:40,960
restructuring, one thing is certain.
11857
09:37:37,596 --> 09:37:45,560
Black Rockck will be there, watching,
11858
09:37:40,960 --> 09:37:45,560
calculating, and growing.
11859
09:39:05,520 --> 09:39:10,480
It's just a small plastic brick.
11860
09:39:08,960 --> 09:39:15,680
Lightweight,
11861
09:39:10,480 --> 09:39:20,080
simple, unchanged since 1958. [music]
11862
09:39:15,680 --> 09:39:22,080
And yet, it has built entire universes.
11863
09:39:20,080 --> 09:39:24,580
Lego constructions truly take us back to
11864
09:39:22,080 --> 09:39:24,580
childhood. [music]
11865
09:39:24,640 --> 09:39:28,880
But they stay with us throughout our
11866
09:39:26,400 --> 09:39:31,276
entire lives. From bedrooms to
11867
09:39:28,880 --> 09:39:35,520
boardrooms, from playgrounds to
11868
09:39:31,276 --> 09:39:38,000
Hollywood, Lego has shaped generations.
11869
09:39:35,520 --> 09:39:39,840
>> When I design something from scratch, I
11870
09:39:38,000 --> 09:39:42,240
start with an idea that occurs to me at
11871
09:39:39,840 --> 09:39:44,000
any time of day.
11872
09:39:42,240 --> 09:39:47,040
>> I try to build it with Lego and see what
11873
09:39:44,000 --> 09:39:51,120
I come up with. In a global toy market
11874
09:39:47,040 --> 09:39:53,756
worth more than $120 billion, Lego
11875
09:39:51,120 --> 09:39:56,800
stands alone. A single company
11876
09:39:53,756 --> 09:39:59,120
controlling nearly one in every $10
11877
09:39:56,800 --> 09:40:01,360
spent on toys worldwide.
11878
09:39:59,120 --> 09:40:02,960
>> Lego holds a leading position worldwide,
11879
09:40:01,360 --> 09:40:04,560
recognized above all for its
11880
09:40:02,960 --> 09:40:06,720
playability.
11881
09:40:04,560 --> 09:40:10,880
>> What if the most beloved toy in the
11882
09:40:06,720 --> 09:40:13,200
world almost didn't exist?
11883
09:40:10,880 --> 09:40:15,916
Discover the incredible journey of a
11884
09:40:13,200 --> 09:40:17,916
small, struggling carpentry shop. The
11885
09:40:15,916 --> 09:40:19,756
dared to dream bigger than anyone
11886
09:40:17,916 --> 09:40:22,320
thought possible.
11887
09:40:19,756 --> 09:40:25,360
>> This is the untold story of the [music]
11888
09:40:22,320 --> 09:40:28,060
visionary who built Lego.
11889
09:40:25,360 --> 09:40:30,720
Transforming simple wooden bricks into
11890
09:40:28,060 --> 09:40:34,560
[music] a multi-billion dollar empire
11891
09:40:30,720 --> 09:40:36,800
and forever changing how we play.
11892
09:40:34,560 --> 09:40:40,080
But none of this began with billiondoll
11893
09:40:36,800 --> 09:40:43,916
charts or cinematic universes.
11894
09:40:40,080 --> 09:40:47,200
It began with a carpenter with a vision.
11895
09:40:43,916 --> 09:40:49,756
In a tiny Danish village, one man had a
11896
09:40:47,200 --> 09:40:53,400
dream. Building [music] toys out of
11897
09:40:49,756 --> 09:40:53,400
scraps of wood.
11898
09:40:59,596 --> 09:41:06,400
Ole Christensen was born in 1891 [music]
11899
09:41:03,120 --> 09:41:07,436
in western Denmark, a place defined by
11900
09:41:06,400 --> 09:41:10,320
silence, [music]
11901
09:41:07,436 --> 09:41:13,040
soil, and hard work.
11902
09:41:10,320 --> 09:41:15,200
He grew up poor, like most children in
11903
09:41:13,040 --> 09:41:16,560
the Jutland countryside.
11904
09:41:15,200 --> 09:41:19,276
But he learned the value of
11905
09:41:16,560 --> 09:41:22,800
craftsmanship early. When you made
11906
09:41:19,276 --> 09:41:25,520
something, it had to last.
11907
09:41:22,800 --> 09:41:27,756
He apprenticed as a carpenter. It was
11908
09:41:25,520 --> 09:41:31,360
not a really glamorous [music] work, but
11909
09:41:27,756 --> 09:41:34,640
meticulous, honest, a craft that matched
11910
09:41:31,360 --> 09:41:37,040
Ola's character and manners.
11911
09:41:34,640 --> 09:41:40,480
Ola traveled through Denmark, Germany,
11912
09:41:37,040 --> 09:41:44,000
and Norway. Everywhere he went, he left
11913
09:41:40,480 --> 09:41:46,000
a reputation. Precise, patient,
11914
09:41:44,000 --> 09:41:49,596
relentless.
11915
09:41:46,000 --> 09:41:51,680
In 1916, Ole returned home and bought a
11916
09:41:49,596 --> 09:41:56,000
workshop in a place that barely existed
11917
09:41:51,680 --> 09:41:58,480
on the map. Bund. No shops, no train
11918
09:41:56,000 --> 09:42:00,560
station, just a handful of families
11919
09:41:58,480 --> 09:42:02,320
trying to survive the Danish winds.
11920
09:42:00,560 --> 09:42:05,436
>> Don't worry, I'm fine. I'm fine.
11921
09:42:02,320 --> 09:42:07,596
>> But 8 years later, disaster struck.
11922
09:42:05,436 --> 09:42:10,640
>> Oh. Oh. Oh, no.
11923
09:42:07,596 --> 09:42:11,360
>> In 1924, a fire tore through his
11924
09:42:10,640 --> 09:42:14,240
workshop.
11925
09:42:11,360 --> 09:42:15,840
>> Oh god, no. Please, no. Oh my god.
11926
09:42:14,240 --> 09:42:20,080
>> Everything burned.
11927
09:42:15,840 --> 09:42:23,436
tools, wood, orders, and a lifetime of
11928
09:42:20,080 --> 09:42:27,596
savings, all gone.
11929
09:42:23,436 --> 09:42:30,240
But Oair didn't quit. He rebuilt and
11930
09:42:27,596 --> 09:42:32,800
rebuilt bigger than before. Not because
11931
09:42:30,240 --> 09:42:36,720
it was safe, but because he refused to
11932
09:42:32,800 --> 09:42:39,596
let Billand disappear into the wind.
11933
09:42:36,720 --> 09:42:42,160
Then came the Great Depression. Houses
11934
09:42:39,596 --> 09:42:46,000
weren't being built. Doors weren't being
11935
09:42:42,160 --> 09:42:48,720
ordered. bills weren't being paid.
11936
09:42:46,000 --> 09:42:51,756
Olair had workers depending on him,
11937
09:42:48,720 --> 09:42:54,640
families depending on him. So, he did
11938
09:42:51,756 --> 09:42:58,480
something unexpected. He began crafting
11939
09:42:54,640 --> 09:43:02,080
small wooden toys. They were simple,
11940
09:42:58,480 --> 09:43:05,120
durable, and beautiful.
11941
09:43:02,080 --> 09:43:08,880
Locals mocked him. A grown man making
11942
09:43:05,120 --> 09:43:12,160
toys for children. You'll never survive.
11943
09:43:08,880 --> 09:43:14,160
But Ola believed that play and fun was a
11944
09:43:12,160 --> 09:43:17,360
serious business.
11945
09:43:14,160 --> 09:43:20,960
In 1934, he held a contest to name the
11946
09:43:17,360 --> 09:43:22,480
new toy company. He chose a short word,
11947
09:43:20,960 --> 09:43:24,880
Lego.
11948
09:43:22,480 --> 09:43:28,400
It was not only a simple idea, but a
11949
09:43:24,880 --> 09:43:31,120
philosophy and a promise.
11950
09:43:28,400 --> 09:43:33,756
He hung a sign in the workshop. Only the
11951
09:43:31,120 --> 09:43:38,916
best is good enough. It wasn't
11952
09:43:33,756 --> 09:43:38,916
marketing. It was his identity.
11953
09:43:39,324 --> 09:43:42,240
>> [panting]
11954
09:43:40,800 --> 09:43:46,880
>> Oh god, not again.
11955
09:43:42,240 --> 09:43:49,680
>> In 1942, Ola faced another fire. This
11956
09:43:46,880 --> 09:43:52,720
time it was bigger, more devastating.
11957
09:43:49,680 --> 09:43:56,160
Every blueprint, every toy, every dream
11958
09:43:52,720 --> 09:43:59,040
he had turned into smoke.
11959
09:43:56,160 --> 09:44:02,560
But he had built himself the hardship.
11960
09:43:59,040 --> 09:44:05,756
And once more, he rebuilt the factory
11961
09:44:02,560 --> 09:44:09,756
stronger than the two previous ones.
11962
09:44:05,756 --> 09:44:11,756
In 1947, at the worst economic moment,
11963
09:44:09,756 --> 09:44:14,800
Ola made the riskiest choice of his
11964
09:44:11,756 --> 09:44:16,960
life. He spent more than twice the
11965
09:44:14,800 --> 09:44:19,756
company's annual profits on a strange
11966
09:44:16,960 --> 09:44:22,720
new machine, one that worked not with
11967
09:44:19,756 --> 09:44:25,436
wood, but with plastic.
11968
09:44:22,720 --> 09:44:27,840
Retailers hated plastic. Parents
11969
09:44:25,436 --> 09:44:31,596
distrusted it. But Ola saw something
11970
09:44:27,840 --> 09:44:34,080
they didn't. Precision, repeatability,
11971
09:44:31,596 --> 09:44:36,320
and possibilities. Endless
11972
09:44:34,080 --> 09:44:39,596
possibilities.
11973
09:44:36,320 --> 09:44:41,756
Only two years later, in 1949,
11974
09:44:39,596 --> 09:44:45,040
LEGO released the first plastic bricks
11975
09:44:41,756 --> 09:44:47,840
of its history. They didn't click. They
11976
09:44:45,040 --> 09:44:50,840
weren't perfect, but they were the
11977
09:44:47,840 --> 09:44:50,840
beginning.
11978
09:44:55,120 --> 09:44:59,520
>> The idea was good, but O and his team
11979
09:44:57,756 --> 09:45:01,840
faced setbacks while designing the
11980
09:44:59,520 --> 09:45:05,040
bricks that had cemented Lego's identity
11981
09:45:01,840 --> 09:45:08,240
through the years. The plastic bricks
11982
09:45:05,040 --> 09:45:10,240
didn't grip. This was a major problem
11983
09:45:08,240 --> 09:45:13,040
for a building set because buildings
11984
09:45:10,240 --> 09:45:16,400
collapsed. Towers fell in front of their
11985
09:45:13,040 --> 09:45:20,880
eyes. Apparently, Lego wasn't created to
11986
09:45:16,400 --> 09:45:23,120
build. And then in 1958,
11987
09:45:20,880 --> 09:45:25,436
everything changed.
11988
09:45:23,120 --> 09:45:27,436
>> Unlike 20 years ago, LEGO today allows
11989
09:45:25,436 --> 09:45:29,756
us to build many more things because
11990
09:45:27,436 --> 09:45:33,160
they have released more realistic colors
11991
09:45:29,756 --> 09:45:33,160
and shapes.
11992
09:45:33,436 --> 09:45:38,160
In the past, the pieces were mostly
11993
09:45:35,520 --> 09:45:40,240
square. Today, there is a much wider
11994
09:45:38,160 --> 09:45:42,400
variety of shapes, including more
11995
09:45:40,240 --> 09:45:45,200
rounded elements, which allow us to
11996
09:45:42,400 --> 09:45:46,960
create more ergonomic forms, ones that
11997
09:45:45,200 --> 09:45:49,200
more closely resemble the kinds of
11998
09:45:46,960 --> 09:45:51,360
buildings and structures we see in
11999
09:45:49,200 --> 09:45:54,400
everyday life.
12000
09:45:51,360 --> 09:45:57,680
>> Engineers at LEGO perfected a simple but
12001
09:45:54,400 --> 09:45:59,756
ingenious solution. hollow tubes inside
12002
09:45:57,680 --> 09:46:02,000
the brick.
12003
09:45:59,756 --> 09:46:04,560
Paired with the studs on top, the
12004
09:46:02,000 --> 09:46:08,400
geometry created what LEGO calls clutch
12005
09:46:04,560 --> 09:46:10,720
power. Not too tight, not too loose,
12006
09:46:08,400 --> 09:46:12,560
just perfect.
12007
09:46:10,720 --> 09:46:15,200
This was not just an adjustment or
12008
09:46:12,560 --> 09:46:18,400
improvement. It was the birth of what we
12009
09:46:15,200 --> 09:46:20,560
know today as a Lego brick. The brick
12010
09:46:18,400 --> 09:46:22,880
that today [music] can still be used
12011
09:46:20,560 --> 09:46:24,160
with the modern ones.
12012
09:46:22,880 --> 09:46:26,320
the brick that [music] was the
12013
09:46:24,160 --> 09:46:28,480
foundation of a company that still makes
12014
09:46:26,320 --> 09:46:32,000
history today.
12015
09:46:28,480 --> 09:46:33,120
That same year, Lego filed the patent.
12016
09:46:32,000 --> 09:46:35,520
They had something worth [music]
12017
09:46:33,120 --> 09:46:39,436
protecting, and Ole knew that sooner or
12018
09:46:35,520 --> 09:46:42,640
later, it would be replicated.
12019
09:46:39,436 --> 09:46:45,436
It was January the 28th, 1958 [music]
12020
09:46:42,640 --> 09:46:48,620
when the patent was filed. Later that
12021
09:46:45,436 --> 09:46:49,520
year, Ole Christensen passed away.
12022
09:46:48,620 --> 09:46:52,720
[music]
12023
09:46:49,520 --> 09:46:56,520
And sadly, he never lived to see how far
12024
09:46:52,720 --> 09:46:56,520
his brick would travel.
12025
09:47:04,080 --> 09:47:09,596
After his father died, Godfred Kirk
12026
09:47:06,640 --> 09:47:11,840
Christensen stepped in. He wasn't
12027
09:47:09,596 --> 09:47:14,800
inheriting the company. He was
12028
09:47:11,840 --> 09:47:17,040
inheriting a philosophy, one he had been
12029
09:47:14,800 --> 09:47:19,200
raised [music] with. His father wasn't
12030
09:47:17,040 --> 09:47:21,360
around anymore, but the original spirit
12031
09:47:19,200 --> 09:47:22,000
of Lego lived on in the second
12032
09:47:21,360 --> 09:47:24,000
Christensen [music]
12033
09:47:22,000 --> 09:47:26,400
generation.
12034
09:47:24,000 --> 09:47:28,560
But he also had something to add.
12035
09:47:26,400 --> 09:47:31,916
Godfred believed Lego should be more
12036
09:47:28,560 --> 09:47:33,436
than toys. It should be a system. A
12037
09:47:31,916 --> 09:47:36,160
system where [music] every piece
12038
09:47:33,436 --> 09:47:38,080
connected with every other piece across
12039
09:47:36,160 --> 09:47:40,160
every set.
12040
09:47:38,080 --> 09:47:42,720
This created a language of creativity
12041
09:47:40,160 --> 09:47:46,400
and [music] possibilities. And a single
12042
09:47:42,720 --> 09:47:49,040
idea changed everything. Suddenly, LEGO
12043
09:47:46,400 --> 09:47:51,520
wasn't a collection of toys, but an
12044
09:47:49,040 --> 09:47:54,080
entire universe.
12045
09:47:51,520 --> 09:47:56,000
The company began to grow far beyond its
12046
09:47:54,080 --> 09:47:58,720
original frontiers.
12047
09:47:56,000 --> 09:48:02,000
During the 1960s and '7s, [music]
12048
09:47:58,720 --> 09:48:05,916
Lego expanded across Europe, Germany,
12049
09:48:02,000 --> 09:48:09,436
Sweden, the UK. Villand, once a small
12050
09:48:05,916 --> 09:48:11,680
village, became a global hub of play.
12051
09:48:09,436 --> 09:48:13,436
Lego then built its own airport,
12052
09:48:11,680 --> 09:48:15,680
factories, and distribution [music]
12053
09:48:13,436 --> 09:48:18,320
centers. In the world of construction
12054
09:48:15,680 --> 09:48:21,040
toys, we know that Lego isn't the only
12055
09:48:18,320 --> 09:48:25,596
brand around.
12056
09:48:21,040 --> 09:48:28,240
What Lego provides is a quality product.
12057
09:48:25,596 --> 09:48:31,040
Maybe one part is wrong for every 10,000
12058
09:48:28,240 --> 09:48:33,840
or 100,000 items. And if you are missing
12059
09:48:31,040 --> 09:48:36,000
an item from a box, or if it is faulty,
12060
09:48:33,840 --> 09:48:37,436
the company's after sales service will
12061
09:48:36,000 --> 09:48:40,916
not question the fact that you are
12062
09:48:37,436 --> 09:48:40,916
missing a part.
12063
09:48:41,756 --> 09:48:48,000
And then the magic happened.
12064
09:48:45,360 --> 09:48:50,880
Lego introduced something no toy company
12065
09:48:48,000 --> 09:48:56,080
had done at scale. Fully themed [music]
12066
09:48:50,880 --> 09:48:57,436
worlds. Space town castles.
12067
09:48:56,080 --> 09:48:59,840
Children weren't just building
12068
09:48:57,436 --> 09:49:01,756
structures anymore. They were building
12069
09:48:59,840 --> 09:49:05,276
stories.
12070
09:49:01,756 --> 09:49:07,200
In 1978, LEGO released its most iconic
12071
09:49:05,276 --> 09:49:08,800
invention since the brick, the
12072
09:49:07,200 --> 09:49:11,840
minifigure.
12073
09:49:08,800 --> 09:49:14,240
It had a simple face, hands shaped like
12074
09:49:11,840 --> 09:49:17,916
a sea, and feet made to stand on [music]
12075
09:49:14,240 --> 09:49:19,840
studs. A tiny character that let kids
12076
09:49:17,916 --> 09:49:21,360
project themselves [music] into entire
12077
09:49:19,840 --> 09:49:24,000
universes.
12078
09:49:21,360 --> 09:49:28,240
Stories now had heroes, and [music] Lego
12079
09:49:24,000 --> 09:49:30,400
had a heartbeat. In the late 1970s, Lego
12080
09:49:28,240 --> 09:49:31,756
was already run by the third Christensen
12081
09:49:30,400 --> 09:49:34,992
generation. [music]
12082
09:49:31,756 --> 09:49:36,640
Ole's grandson killed began shaping the
12083
09:49:34,992 --> 09:49:39,200
[music] company into the global
12084
09:49:36,640 --> 09:49:40,800
powerhouse we know today.
12085
09:49:39,200 --> 09:49:43,520
He did so by creating [music] more
12086
09:49:40,800 --> 09:49:46,800
sophisticated lines, bringing in new
12087
09:49:43,520 --> 09:49:49,200
universes, technic brought mechanics,
12088
09:49:46,800 --> 09:49:52,160
pirates brought adventure, and trains
12089
09:49:49,200 --> 09:49:54,560
brought motion. By the late 20th
12090
09:49:52,160 --> 09:49:56,240
century, the global toy market was
12091
09:49:54,560 --> 09:49:58,320
becoming massive. [music]
12092
09:49:56,240 --> 09:49:59,680
Tens of billions of dollars a year
12093
09:49:58,320 --> 09:50:01,596
worth.
12094
09:49:59,680 --> 09:50:04,400
The United States [music] spent more on
12095
09:50:01,596 --> 09:50:07,360
toys than any country on Earth. And
12096
09:50:04,400 --> 09:50:09,756
China produced most of them, nearly 3/4
12097
09:50:07,360 --> 09:50:12,720
of the world's total.
12098
09:50:09,756 --> 09:50:15,616
In this booming landscape, Lego wasn't
12099
09:50:12,720 --> 09:50:17,636
just another toy. It was the toy.
12100
09:50:15,616 --> 09:50:17,636
[music]
12101
09:50:23,200 --> 09:50:29,040
By the late 1990s, Lego was flying high.
12102
09:50:27,040 --> 09:50:31,276
It had become one of the most admired
12103
09:50:29,040 --> 09:50:32,720
companies in Europe. A creative
12104
09:50:31,276 --> 09:50:35,360
powerhouse built on the [music]
12105
09:50:32,720 --> 09:50:37,680
philosophy of imagination and creation.
12106
09:50:35,360 --> 09:50:39,360
We're not focused only on childhood, but
12107
09:50:37,680 --> 09:50:41,916
on something that has quite literally
12108
09:50:39,360 --> 09:50:44,080
built us, pun intended, shaping our
12109
09:50:41,916 --> 09:50:46,800
personalities through Lego from an early
12110
09:50:44,080 --> 09:50:50,972
age. Those memories became a foundation
12111
09:50:46,800 --> 09:50:52,800
we've kept building on over time.
12112
09:50:50,972 --> 09:50:54,960
[music] That's why exhibitions like this
12113
09:50:52,800 --> 09:50:57,916
bring us straight back to childhood. The
12114
09:50:54,960 --> 09:51:00,000
audience here is very diverse, but once
12115
09:50:57,916 --> 09:51:02,240
people walk in, they all become the boy
12116
09:51:00,000 --> 09:51:05,200
or girl they once were.
12117
09:51:02,240 --> 09:51:07,520
>> But it's not all gold that glitters.
12118
09:51:05,200 --> 09:51:10,480
Under the surface, something dangerous
12119
09:51:07,520 --> 09:51:12,720
was creeping in. The toy market was
12120
09:51:10,480 --> 09:51:14,080
changing fast. Children were spending
12121
09:51:12,720 --> 09:51:17,040
more and more [music] time with video
12122
09:51:14,080 --> 09:51:19,360
games and early computer entertainment.
12123
09:51:17,040 --> 09:51:21,100
Sony's PlayStation, Nintendo, and
12124
09:51:19,360 --> 09:51:24,320
Hasbro's electronic toys were capturing
12125
09:51:21,100 --> 09:51:27,596
[music] attention. And LEGO, determined
12126
09:51:24,320 --> 09:51:29,200
not to fall behind, expanded too far too
12127
09:51:27,596 --> 09:51:31,680
fast.
12128
09:51:29,200 --> 09:51:33,840
Throughout the 1990s, Lego began
12129
09:51:31,680 --> 09:51:36,640
introducing thousands of completely new
12130
09:51:33,840 --> 09:51:39,596
pieces, specialized parts that not only
12131
09:51:36,640 --> 09:51:43,436
worked in one set. A single year could
12132
09:51:39,596 --> 09:51:45,360
bring more than 350 new designs. Each of
12133
09:51:43,436 --> 09:51:47,436
them costing [music] tens of thousands
12134
09:51:45,360 --> 09:51:50,320
of dollars in steel machining and
12135
09:51:47,436 --> 09:51:52,240
precision engineering.
12136
09:51:50,320 --> 09:51:54,480
In 2002,
12137
09:51:52,240 --> 09:51:57,436
Lego had more than 12,000 [music] active
12138
09:51:54,480 --> 09:51:59,916
elements. The system of play, once
12139
09:51:57,436 --> 09:52:03,200
simple and universal, was becoming
12140
09:51:59,916 --> 09:52:06,240
chaotic and difficult to follow. LEGO
12141
09:52:03,200 --> 09:52:08,320
also tried becoming a lifestyle brand.
12142
09:52:06,240 --> 09:52:11,520
New ventures appeared everywhere.
12143
09:52:08,320 --> 09:52:13,680
Clothing lines, theme parks, homegoods,
12144
09:52:11,520 --> 09:52:15,436
cartoon series, even watches and
12145
09:52:13,680 --> 09:52:17,360
sneakers.
12146
09:52:15,436 --> 09:52:19,916
But these projects drained resources
12147
09:52:17,360 --> 09:52:24,000
without reinforcing the core product.
12148
09:52:19,916 --> 09:52:27,840
the brick. And between 1999 [music] and
12149
09:52:24,000 --> 09:52:29,880
2003, LEGO sales collapsed.
12150
09:52:27,840 --> 09:52:31,680
During these years, the company went
12151
09:52:29,880 --> 09:52:35,360
[music] from doubledigit growth to
12152
09:52:31,680 --> 09:52:37,680
struggling. And by 2003, the company was
12153
09:52:35,360 --> 09:52:41,596
losing the equivalent of $1 million a
12154
09:52:37,680 --> 09:52:44,080
day. In a global toy market still worth
12155
09:52:41,596 --> 09:52:46,880
more than $70 billion US [music] at the
12156
09:52:44,080 --> 09:52:48,880
time, Lego, once the king of the toy
12157
09:52:46,880 --> 09:52:50,800
box, was only a few steps away [music]
12158
09:52:48,880 --> 09:52:53,916
from bankruptcy.
12159
09:52:50,800 --> 09:52:58,160
Times were dark, but a spark of genius
12160
09:52:53,916 --> 09:53:00,560
appeared. In 1999, LEGO signed its first
12161
09:52:58,160 --> 09:53:02,400
ever licensing deal with no other than
12162
09:53:00,560 --> 09:53:05,436
Lucasfilm.
12163
09:53:02,400 --> 09:53:08,720
The timing was perfect. Star Wars
12164
09:53:05,436 --> 09:53:11,436
Episode 1 was about to hit theaters.
12165
09:53:08,720 --> 09:53:14,480
Hype was global and the first Lego Star
12166
09:53:11,436 --> 09:53:17,680
Wars sets were instant hits, not just
12167
09:53:14,480 --> 09:53:19,756
with children, with adults. Collectors
12168
09:53:17,680 --> 09:53:21,840
lined up to buy the X-wing, the
12169
09:53:19,756 --> 09:53:25,200
Snowspeeder, or the first Millennium
12170
09:53:21,840 --> 09:53:28,000
Falcon. For the first time in LEGO's
12171
09:53:25,200 --> 09:53:30,800
history, adults, including those in
12172
09:53:28,000 --> 09:53:31,680
their 30s and 40s, were buying sets for
12173
09:53:30,800 --> 09:53:33,680
themselves.
12174
09:53:31,680 --> 09:53:36,320
>> The adult fan of Lego community is
12175
09:53:33,680 --> 09:53:38,400
getting bigger. This is because Lego is
12176
09:53:36,320 --> 09:53:40,960
not the same as it was 20 or 30 years
12177
09:53:38,400 --> 09:53:43,200
ago.
12178
09:53:40,960 --> 09:53:45,040
Before, Lego was only seen as a toy to
12179
09:53:43,200 --> 09:53:48,040
play with when it was cold and you were
12180
09:53:45,040 --> 09:53:48,040
indoors.
12181
09:53:48,400 --> 09:53:53,276
Today, Lego is much more than a toy.
12182
09:53:50,880 --> 09:53:55,596
It's used to create logos to design
12183
09:53:53,276 --> 09:53:58,640
dynamic group activities. And it also
12184
09:53:55,596 --> 09:54:00,880
represents a shift in how we see it.
12185
09:53:58,640 --> 09:54:03,276
years ago, if you said you played with
12186
09:54:00,880 --> 09:54:05,680
Lego or built Lego, you almost had to
12187
09:54:03,276 --> 09:54:07,520
explain yourself that you were at home
12188
09:54:05,680 --> 09:54:10,320
playing with little figures making up
12189
09:54:07,520 --> 09:54:12,160
battles. What we do today is different.
12190
09:54:10,320 --> 09:54:15,916
We come together as a community of
12191
09:54:12,160 --> 09:54:17,756
adults and Lego has recognized that.
12192
09:54:15,916 --> 09:54:20,080
That's why more and more products are
12193
09:54:17,756 --> 09:54:22,720
now designed specifically for adults,
12194
09:54:20,080 --> 09:54:25,720
more complex to build, and also more
12195
09:54:22,720 --> 09:54:25,720
expensive.
12196
09:54:26,880 --> 09:54:30,640
This kid demographic [music]
12197
09:54:28,640 --> 09:54:33,520
would later become one of LEGO's most
12198
09:54:30,640 --> 09:54:34,400
profitable segments. More licenses
12199
09:54:33,520 --> 09:54:37,276
followed. [music]
12200
09:54:34,400 --> 09:54:39,276
Harry Potter, Spider-Man, Batman,
12201
09:54:37,276 --> 09:54:42,320
Indiana Jones, and later [music] the
12202
09:54:39,276 --> 09:54:43,916
newest Marvel Cinematic Universe.
12203
09:54:42,320 --> 09:54:45,596
Even though LEGO learned that
12204
09:54:43,916 --> 09:54:48,320
storytelling sells, [music]
12205
09:54:45,596 --> 09:54:50,640
in 2004, losses were mounting and
12206
09:54:48,320 --> 09:54:53,120
survival was uncertain.
12207
09:54:50,640 --> 09:54:54,640
And then the company made a radical
12208
09:54:53,120 --> 09:54:57,040
decision.
12209
09:54:54,640 --> 09:54:59,436
For the first time in its history, the
12210
09:54:57,040 --> 09:55:03,120
company appointed a CEO from outside the
12211
09:54:59,436 --> 09:55:05,520
Christensen family, Jurgen Victor,
12212
09:55:03,120 --> 09:55:06,960
a 35-year-old former McKenzie
12213
09:55:05,520 --> 09:55:10,880
consultant. [music]
12214
09:55:06,960 --> 09:55:14,284
He was calm, precise, analytical,
12215
09:55:10,880 --> 09:55:17,596
and brutally honest. His diagnosis
12216
09:55:14,284 --> 09:55:20,160
[music] was simple. Lego had forgotten
12217
09:55:17,596 --> 09:55:22,480
what made it Lego.
12218
09:55:20,160 --> 09:55:25,520
Kutto cut the number of unique elements
12219
09:55:22,480 --> 09:55:28,400
by nearly 50%. He sold off the [music]
12220
09:55:25,520 --> 09:55:31,200
theme parks. He shut down unprofitable
12221
09:55:28,400 --> 09:55:33,280
production facilities. He centralized
12222
09:55:31,200 --> 09:55:34,240
supply chains, standardized materials,
12223
09:55:33,280 --> 09:55:35,916
[music]
12224
09:55:34,240 --> 09:55:39,040
and brought back discipline to the
12225
09:55:35,916 --> 09:55:43,800
system. But more important, he put the
12226
09:55:39,040 --> 09:55:43,800
brick back at the center of the company.
12227
09:55:45,436 --> 09:55:50,320
This turnaround didn't happen in
12228
09:55:47,276 --> 09:55:53,680
isolation. The global toy industry was
12229
09:55:50,320 --> 09:55:56,240
undergoing a seismic change. China was
12230
09:55:53,680 --> 09:55:58,720
producing nearly 75% of the world's
12231
09:55:56,240 --> 09:56:01,840
toys, being the largest manufacturing
12232
09:55:58,720 --> 09:56:04,000
consolidation in toy history.
12233
09:56:01,840 --> 09:56:06,560
Meanwhile, the United States had become
12234
09:56:04,000 --> 09:56:08,652
the single largest consumer, responsible
12235
09:56:06,560 --> 09:56:11,800
for nearly onethird of the global toy
12236
09:56:08,652 --> 09:56:11,800
[music] spending.
12237
09:56:12,000 --> 09:56:19,132
By 2005, the toy market was worth close
12238
09:56:15,596 --> 09:56:22,240
to $80 billion US. But it was brutally
12239
09:56:19,132 --> 09:56:24,960
[music] competitive as well. Seasonality
12240
09:56:22,240 --> 09:56:27,916
was extreme. Nearly half of the annual
12241
09:56:24,960 --> 09:56:30,480
toy sales occurred in just 3 months from
12242
09:56:27,916 --> 09:56:33,596
October [music] to December.
12243
09:56:30,480 --> 09:56:35,680
Companies lived or died by Christmas.
12244
09:56:33,596 --> 09:56:38,480
Mattel was battling declining Barbie
12245
09:56:35,680 --> 09:56:39,840
sales. Hasbro was betting its future on
12246
09:56:38,480 --> 09:56:41,436
Transformers and board game
12247
09:56:39,840 --> 09:56:42,960
reinventions.
12248
09:56:41,436 --> 09:56:46,240
Electronics [music] were eating market
12249
09:56:42,960 --> 09:56:50,640
share across every age group. In this
12250
09:56:46,240 --> 09:56:56,596
scenario, LEGO rebuilt and refocused and
12251
09:56:50,640 --> 09:56:56,596
then began rising above all of them.
12252
09:56:59,840 --> 09:57:07,520
Between 2008 and 2015, LEGO entered a
12253
09:57:04,080 --> 09:57:08,640
new era, a renaissance driven by design,
12254
09:57:07,520 --> 09:57:12,560
storytelling, [music]
12255
09:57:08,640 --> 09:57:14,400
digital engagement, and adult passion.
12256
09:57:12,560 --> 09:57:16,720
The company launched the ultimate
12257
09:57:14,400 --> 09:57:19,276
collector series, producing [music] the
12258
09:57:16,720 --> 09:57:20,800
largest, most detailed models in toy
12259
09:57:19,276 --> 09:57:23,040
history.
12260
09:57:20,800 --> 09:57:24,632
LEGO architecture brought landmarks to
12261
09:57:23,040 --> 09:57:24,640
coffee tables.
12262
09:57:24,632 --> 09:57:26,880
>> [music]
12263
09:57:24,640 --> 09:57:29,520
>> Modular buildings turned living rooms
12264
09:57:26,880 --> 09:57:31,916
into miniature cities, and adults were
12265
09:57:29,520 --> 09:57:34,800
no longer hiding their Lego hobby, but
12266
09:57:31,916 --> 09:57:36,800
embracing it. My story with Lego began
12267
09:57:34,800 --> 09:57:38,800
in the early '9s when I was a small
12268
09:57:36,800 --> 09:57:40,880
child.
12269
09:57:38,800 --> 09:57:42,800
I started playing, but then I stopped
12270
09:57:40,880 --> 09:57:44,480
for a while.
12271
09:57:42,800 --> 09:57:46,800
This is what most of us want to do when
12272
09:57:44,480 --> 09:57:51,160
we are teenagers to do other hobbies and
12273
09:57:46,800 --> 09:57:51,160
spend less time playing with Lego.
12274
09:57:51,756 --> 09:57:57,040
After that, when I was in my early 20s,
12275
09:57:53,680 --> 09:57:59,200
I started collecting Lego. I met people
12276
09:57:57,040 --> 09:58:01,756
from the Valencian community and founded
12277
09:57:59,200 --> 09:58:03,680
Valrech.
12278
09:58:01,756 --> 09:58:06,240
That eventually led me to a television
12279
09:58:03,680 --> 09:58:08,400
show where I took part and won. From
12280
09:58:06,240 --> 09:58:11,880
there, companies began approaching me to
12281
09:58:08,400 --> 09:58:11,880
develop projects.
12282
09:58:13,276 --> 09:58:16,880
At first, this hadn't even occurred to
12283
09:58:15,120 --> 09:58:19,276
me,
12284
09:58:16,880 --> 09:58:21,520
but I started to see a growing demand,
12285
09:58:19,276 --> 09:58:23,756
whether it was building a corporate kit,
12286
09:58:21,520 --> 09:58:27,040
like a transport company's truck, or
12287
09:58:23,756 --> 09:58:28,800
even a company's logistics headquarters.
12288
09:58:27,040 --> 09:58:30,800
This market opened up a professional
12289
09:58:28,800 --> 09:58:32,720
path for me.
12290
09:58:30,800 --> 09:58:36,028
It supports me financially, but more
12291
09:58:32,720 --> 09:58:37,840
importantly, it's deeply rewarding.
12292
09:58:36,028 --> 09:58:39,436
[music] Many of these projects challenge
12293
09:58:37,840 --> 09:58:42,960
me to build things I would never choose
12294
09:58:39,436 --> 09:58:45,436
on my own. But once a challenge is set,
12295
09:58:42,960 --> 09:58:48,080
build this. My mind immediately starts
12296
09:58:45,436 --> 09:58:50,240
collecting ideas, figuring out how to
12297
09:58:48,080 --> 09:58:54,596
shape them and bring the project to life
12298
09:58:50,240 --> 09:58:54,596
in the best possible way.
12299
09:58:55,916 --> 09:59:01,276
The adult fans of Lego [music]
12300
09:58:57,680 --> 09:59:04,320
skyrocketed. Forums, conventions, fan
12301
09:59:01,276 --> 09:59:07,756
events, engineering clubs. A global
12302
09:59:04,320 --> 09:59:10,160
movement emerged. By 2014, [music]
12303
09:59:07,756 --> 09:59:11,840
adults accounted for nearly onethird of
12304
09:59:10,160 --> 09:59:14,320
Lego sales.
12305
09:59:11,840 --> 09:59:16,560
>> To anyone who thinks Lego is only for
12306
09:59:14,320 --> 09:59:18,080
children, I'd say come and see the
12307
09:59:16,560 --> 09:59:19,916
exhibition.
12308
09:59:18,080 --> 09:59:22,720
See what we're capable of creating with
12309
09:59:19,916 --> 09:59:26,720
Lego pieces and how imagination develops
12310
09:59:22,720 --> 09:59:28,880
in both children and adults.
12311
09:59:26,720 --> 09:59:31,756
Children work within certain limits and
12312
09:59:28,880 --> 09:59:34,480
see things differently. But adults with
12313
09:59:31,756 --> 09:59:37,120
a wider range of colors, shapes, and
12314
09:59:34,480 --> 09:59:40,320
ways to use the pieces can explore just
12315
09:59:37,120 --> 09:59:42,320
how much is possible.
12316
09:59:40,320 --> 09:59:44,640
It was a radical shift in the economics
12317
09:59:42,320 --> 09:59:47,040
of play. And [music] then came the
12318
09:59:44,640 --> 09:59:50,080
cultural explosion.
12319
09:59:47,040 --> 09:59:53,596
In 2014, the Lego movie shattered
12320
09:59:50,080 --> 09:59:56,480
expectations, earning nearly 500 million
12321
09:59:53,596 --> 09:59:59,436
US at the [music] box office.
12322
09:59:56,480 --> 10:00:03,360
What started as a toy was now pop
12323
09:59:59,436 --> 10:00:05,120
culture. By the mid [music] 2010s, LEGO
12324
10:00:03,360 --> 10:00:07,520
was the world's most valuable toy
12325
10:00:05,120 --> 10:00:10,720
company, even surpassing Mattel, [music]
12326
10:00:07,520 --> 10:00:12,720
Hasbro, and every other competitor.
12327
10:00:10,720 --> 10:00:16,160
The brick that started [music] it all
12328
10:00:12,720 --> 10:00:19,720
was no longer just a product. It was a
12329
10:00:16,160 --> 10:00:19,720
global icon.
12330
10:00:21,596 --> 10:00:25,916
The LEGO Group stands today as one of
12331
10:00:23,916 --> 10:00:27,360
the most efficient, profitable, and
12332
10:00:25,916 --> 10:00:30,000
culturally [music] influential toy
12333
10:00:27,360 --> 10:00:30,960
companies on Earth. Its factories run
12334
10:00:30,000 --> 10:00:32,800
with [clears throat] near perfect
12335
10:00:30,960 --> 10:00:34,960
precision.
12336
10:00:32,800 --> 10:00:38,160
Its design teams develop thousands of
12337
10:00:34,960 --> 10:00:40,160
prototypes each year. Its supply chain
12338
10:00:38,160 --> 10:00:42,960
delivers billions of bricks that must
12339
10:00:40,160 --> 10:00:44,800
all fit together flawlessly across
12340
10:00:42,960 --> 10:00:48,560
decades.
12341
10:00:44,800 --> 10:00:52,640
In a global toy market worth roughly 120
12342
10:00:48,560 --> 10:00:56,400
billion a year, Lego commands nearly 9%
12343
10:00:52,640 --> 10:00:59,596
of all worldwide toy sales. No other toy
12344
10:00:56,400 --> 10:01:02,480
brand, not Barbie, not Marvel figures,
12345
10:00:59,596 --> 10:01:05,360
not Nintendo merchandise, maintains such
12346
10:01:02,480 --> 10:01:07,436
consistency across continents, genders,
12347
10:01:05,360 --> 10:01:09,436
and generations. [music]
12348
10:01:07,436 --> 10:01:12,640
And unlike most toy companies that
12349
10:01:09,436 --> 10:01:14,000
outsource manufacturing, LEGO controls a
12350
10:01:12,640 --> 10:01:16,504
significant portion of its own
12351
10:01:14,000 --> 10:01:17,120
production with major hubs in Denmark,
12352
10:01:16,504 --> 10:01:19,680
[music]
12353
10:01:17,120 --> 10:01:21,680
Hungary, Mexico, China, and the Czech
12354
10:01:19,680 --> 10:01:24,480
Republic.
12355
10:01:21,680 --> 10:01:27,040
This vertical integration reduces risk,
12356
10:01:24,480 --> 10:01:28,880
stabilizes quality, and protects one of
12357
10:01:27,040 --> 10:01:32,240
the most important values in the
12358
10:01:28,880 --> 10:01:34,480
company's DNA, precision.
12359
10:01:32,240 --> 10:01:36,800
Every LEGO brick must be manufactured
12360
10:01:34,480 --> 10:01:39,916
with tolerances thinner than a strand of
12361
10:01:36,800 --> 10:01:43,436
hair. If the clutch is too tight, the
12362
10:01:39,916 --> 10:01:46,560
model breaks. If it's too loose, towers
12363
10:01:43,436 --> 10:01:50,080
collapse. Across billions of pieces,
12364
10:01:46,560 --> 10:01:53,436
perfection is not an ambition. It is an
12365
10:01:50,080 --> 10:01:55,520
engineering reality for LEGO.
12366
10:01:53,436 --> 10:01:57,680
This level of detail gives the company
12367
10:01:55,520 --> 10:02:00,400
one of the highest brand trust ratings
12368
10:01:57,680 --> 10:02:02,880
in the world. Parents know the bricks
12369
10:02:00,400 --> 10:02:05,756
will last. Adults know the sets will
12370
10:02:02,880 --> 10:02:08,000
impress. Collectors know the investment
12371
10:02:05,756 --> 10:02:10,240
will hold value.
12372
10:02:08,000 --> 10:02:13,040
The modern toy market is a machine of
12373
10:02:10,240 --> 10:02:14,640
impulse, tradition, celebration, and
12374
10:02:13,040 --> 10:02:16,560
nostalgia.
12375
10:02:14,640 --> 10:02:20,080
In 2025,
12376
10:02:16,560 --> 10:02:23,120
global spending on toys approaches $120
12377
10:02:20,080 --> 10:02:25,916
billion, nearly double what it was two
12378
10:02:23,120 --> 10:02:28,400
decades earlier. The United States
12379
10:02:25,916 --> 10:02:29,916
remains the world's largest consumer,
12380
10:02:28,400 --> 10:02:33,040
accounting for roughly onethird [music]
12381
10:02:29,916 --> 10:02:35,680
of global sales. A typical American
12382
10:02:33,040 --> 10:02:38,400
household with children may spend $300
12383
10:02:35,680 --> 10:02:41,360
to $400 per child per [music] year on
12384
10:02:38,400 --> 10:02:43,756
toys. This is more than five times the
12385
10:02:41,360 --> 10:02:45,520
global average.
12386
10:02:43,756 --> 10:02:47,840
Europe forms [music] the second largest
12387
10:02:45,520 --> 10:02:51,360
block with strong purchasing power in
12388
10:02:47,840 --> 10:02:53,756
Germany, the United Kingdom and France.
12389
10:02:51,360 --> 10:02:55,360
Asia-Pacific is rapidly growing,
12390
10:02:53,756 --> 10:02:58,240
especially in China, [music] South
12391
10:02:55,360 --> 10:03:01,756
Korea, and Japan. Driven by rising
12392
10:02:58,240 --> 10:03:04,160
middle classes and urban lifestyles.
12393
10:03:01,756 --> 10:03:07,520
But the most important shift of the last
12394
10:03:04,160 --> 10:03:09,168
decade is not geographic. It is
12395
10:03:07,520 --> 10:03:11,188
demographic.
12396
10:03:09,168 --> 10:03:11,188
[laughter]
12397
10:03:14,560 --> 10:03:19,520
Adults, once considered irrelevant to
12398
10:03:17,360 --> 10:03:22,560
the toy industry, are [music] now one of
12399
10:03:19,520 --> 10:03:25,544
the most powerful forces. This growing
12400
10:03:22,560 --> 10:03:28,000
segment, commonly called the kid market,
12401
10:03:25,544 --> 10:03:31,916
[music] now represents between 25 and
12402
10:03:28,000 --> 10:03:34,480
30% of all toy purchases worldwide.
12403
10:03:31,916 --> 10:03:37,596
Adults buy toys for nostalgia, for
12404
10:03:34,480 --> 10:03:40,480
stress relief, for display, for
12405
10:03:37,596 --> 10:03:42,320
identity. Lego is the undisputed
12406
10:03:40,480 --> 10:03:44,720
champion of this movement.
12407
10:03:42,320 --> 10:03:48,120
>> Unlike other hobbies, Lego gives me a
12408
10:03:44,720 --> 10:03:48,120
sense of calm.
12409
10:03:49,200 --> 10:03:53,840
It lets me take ideas from my mind,
12410
10:03:51,596 --> 10:03:57,200
bring them to life, think them through,
12411
10:03:53,840 --> 10:04:00,000
and simply enjoy the process. Right now,
12412
10:03:57,200 --> 10:04:02,320
I'm trying to instill that in my son to
12413
10:04:00,000 --> 10:04:04,480
enjoy himself, to learn to see colors
12414
10:04:02,320 --> 10:04:08,000
and shapes, and to understand that with
12415
10:04:04,480 --> 10:04:11,276
imagination, anything is possible.
12416
10:04:08,000 --> 10:04:13,840
Its premium sets, Technic Hypercars,
12417
10:04:11,276 --> 10:04:16,560
Star Wars Ultimate Collector Series,
12418
10:04:13,840 --> 10:04:21,200
iconic landmarks, regularly exceed
12419
10:04:16,560 --> 10:04:23,916
prices of $30, 500, even $800.
12420
10:04:21,200 --> 10:04:25,756
They sell out within hours. They hold
12421
10:04:23,916 --> 10:04:28,640
aftermarket values like fine
12422
10:04:25,756 --> 10:04:30,880
collectibles. This adult segment has
12423
10:04:28,640 --> 10:04:33,916
reshaped the entire financial landscape
12424
10:04:30,880 --> 10:04:36,480
of the company. It provides stability
12425
10:04:33,916 --> 10:04:38,640
when [music] children's trends shift. It
12426
10:04:36,480 --> 10:04:41,916
creates recurring revenue from loyal
12427
10:04:38,640 --> 10:04:44,960
fans and it strengthens LEGO's position
12428
10:04:41,916 --> 10:04:46,560
as a crossgenerational brand, something
12429
10:04:44,960 --> 10:04:48,320
few toy companies have [music] ever
12430
10:04:46,560 --> 10:04:50,560
achieved.
12431
10:04:48,320 --> 10:04:53,520
Seasonality still dictates much of the
12432
10:04:50,560 --> 10:04:55,840
global toy market. Every year, nearly
12433
10:04:53,520 --> 10:04:59,200
half of all toy sales occur between
12434
10:04:55,840 --> 10:05:02,080
October and December. Companies live or
12435
10:04:59,200 --> 10:05:05,276
die by holiday forecasting, inventory
12436
10:05:02,080 --> 10:05:08,000
strategy, and shipment timing. But LEGO
12437
10:05:05,276 --> 10:05:10,880
has become the exception. Adult
12438
10:05:08,000 --> 10:05:13,200
collectors buy year round. Digital
12439
10:05:10,880 --> 10:05:16,240
experiences drive sales outside the
12440
10:05:13,200 --> 10:05:18,080
holiday season. Licensed launches create
12441
10:05:16,240 --> 10:05:19,596
[music] anticipation even in slow
12442
10:05:18,080 --> 10:05:22,320
quarters.
12443
10:05:19,596 --> 10:05:24,320
LEGO has effectively freed itself or at
12444
10:05:22,320 --> 10:05:26,400
least partially from the seasonal
12445
10:05:24,320 --> 10:05:29,840
dependency that has defined the toy
12446
10:05:26,400 --> 10:05:33,756
industry for over a century. The brick
12447
10:05:29,840 --> 10:05:36,240
is physical, tangible, mechanical. But
12448
10:05:33,756 --> 10:05:40,000
Lego's success in the 21st century
12449
10:05:36,240 --> 10:05:43,680
extends into digital worlds. Star Wars,
12450
10:05:40,000 --> 10:05:45,680
Batman, Marvel. These games defined an
12451
10:05:43,680 --> 10:05:48,720
entire generation of familyfriendly
12452
10:05:45,680 --> 10:05:51,436
titles. They sold tens of millions of
12453
10:05:48,720 --> 10:05:54,400
copies. They introduced humor,
12454
10:05:51,436 --> 10:05:57,276
storytelling, and simplicity to a medium
12455
10:05:54,400 --> 10:05:59,436
often dominated by complexity.
12456
10:05:57,276 --> 10:06:02,400
For many children born after the year
12457
10:05:59,436 --> 10:06:06,320
2000, Lego was not discovered in a toy
12458
10:06:02,400 --> 10:06:09,120
box, but on a screen. The cinematic leap
12459
10:06:06,320 --> 10:06:12,000
came in 2014 when the Lego movie
12460
10:06:09,120 --> 10:06:14,720
premiered to global acclaim. It earned
12461
10:06:12,000 --> 10:06:17,360
nearly half a billion dollars. Most
12462
10:06:14,720 --> 10:06:20,320
importantly, it reframed Lego as a
12463
10:06:17,360 --> 10:06:22,480
cultural idea, not a product.
12464
10:06:20,320 --> 10:06:25,360
The film taught a global audience that
12465
10:06:22,480 --> 10:06:28,000
creativity matters, that imperfection is
12466
10:06:25,360 --> 10:06:30,560
beautiful, that building and rebuilding
12467
10:06:28,000 --> 10:06:33,916
are not failures, they are the process
12468
10:06:30,560 --> 10:06:36,720
of play. Lego Batman expanded the
12469
10:06:33,916 --> 10:06:39,916
concept. Lego Ninjago created an
12470
10:06:36,720 --> 10:06:42,480
entirely new generation of fans and Lego
12471
10:06:39,916 --> 10:06:45,120
Masters on television turned building
12472
10:06:42,480 --> 10:06:47,916
into a competitive art form.
12473
10:06:45,120 --> 10:06:51,200
The brand had moved beyond toys, beyond
12474
10:06:47,916 --> 10:06:53,756
stories, beyond bricks. It had become
12475
10:06:51,200 --> 10:06:56,756
part of a cultural grammar of the 21st
12476
10:06:53,756 --> 10:06:56,756
century.
12477
10:07:00,480 --> 10:07:04,800
Long before STEM became a global
12478
10:07:02,560 --> 10:07:08,080
movement, Lego was already teaching
12479
10:07:04,800 --> 10:07:11,520
children how to think like engineers. In
12480
10:07:08,080 --> 10:07:13,916
the 1990s, Lego Mindstorms introduced
12481
10:07:11,520 --> 10:07:17,360
programmable robotics to students around
12482
10:07:13,916 --> 10:07:20,160
the world. Later sets, we [music] do
12483
10:07:17,360 --> 10:07:22,400
Spike Prime Boost brought coding,
12484
10:07:20,160 --> 10:07:25,680
sensors, and motors into classrooms and
12485
10:07:22,400 --> 10:07:27,916
homes. Today, [music] LEGO Education
12486
10:07:25,680 --> 10:07:30,160
works with governments, schools, and
12487
10:07:27,916 --> 10:07:32,480
universities to bring hands-on learning
12488
10:07:30,160 --> 10:07:35,120
to millions of students. [music]
12489
10:07:32,480 --> 10:07:37,436
The philosophy is simple. Children learn
12490
10:07:35,120 --> 10:07:40,480
best through play. This approach [music]
12491
10:07:37,436 --> 10:07:42,960
shapes future engineers, designers, and
12492
10:07:40,480 --> 10:07:44,320
problem solvers. It helps children
12493
10:07:42,960 --> 10:07:47,120
[music] experiment in ways that
12494
10:07:44,320 --> 10:07:50,000
textbooks cannot. And it continues
12495
10:07:47,120 --> 10:07:52,160
Olirk's belief that play is not a
12496
10:07:50,000 --> 10:07:54,880
distraction from learning, but the
12497
10:07:52,160 --> 10:07:56,880
foundation of it.
12498
10:07:54,880 --> 10:07:57,680
In a world increasingly focused on
12499
10:07:56,880 --> 10:07:59,680
sustainability,
12500
10:07:57,680 --> 10:08:01,680
>> from my experience, what makes Lego
12501
10:07:59,680 --> 10:08:03,264
different from other construction toys
12502
10:08:01,680 --> 10:08:04,480
is its growing commitment to inclusion.
12503
10:08:03,264 --> 10:08:06,800
[music]
12504
10:08:04,480 --> 10:08:08,160
In recent years, LEGO has actively
12505
10:08:06,800 --> 10:08:10,400
embraced people with different
12506
10:08:08,160 --> 10:08:12,320
abilities. For example, by including
12507
10:08:10,400 --> 10:08:15,040
figures in wheelchairs and releasing
12508
10:08:12,320 --> 10:08:16,880
sets in Braille. These are things most
12509
10:08:15,040 --> 10:08:18,960
other brands simply don't offer, but
12510
10:08:16,880 --> 10:08:20,948
LEGO does.
12511
10:08:18,960 --> 10:08:23,120
In addition, LEGO is strongly committed
12512
10:08:20,948 --> 10:08:24,720
[music] to the environment.
12513
10:08:23,120 --> 10:08:26,960
They're producing more and more pieces
12514
10:08:24,720 --> 10:08:28,880
using recycled plastic and replacing
12515
10:08:26,960 --> 10:08:31,680
plastic packaging with paper to reduce
12516
10:08:28,880 --> 10:08:34,320
waste, something other brands simply
12517
10:08:31,680 --> 10:08:37,360
don't do.
12518
10:08:34,320 --> 10:08:39,840
Lego faces a unique challenge. Its
12519
10:08:37,360 --> 10:08:42,320
bricks are made to last forever. A
12520
10:08:39,840 --> 10:08:46,080
blessing for creativity, but a concern
12521
10:08:42,320 --> 10:08:48,080
in an era of plastic waste. In response,
12522
10:08:46,080 --> 10:08:50,000
LEGO has invested hundreds of millions
12523
10:08:48,080 --> 10:08:52,160
of dollars into developing more
12524
10:08:50,000 --> 10:08:53,840
sustainable materials.
12525
10:08:52,160 --> 10:08:56,800
Plant-based polyethylene [music]
12526
10:08:53,840 --> 10:08:59,596
is already used for leaves and trees.
12527
10:08:56,800 --> 10:09:01,040
Recycled PT prototypes continue to
12528
10:08:59,596 --> 10:09:03,596
advance.
12529
10:09:01,040 --> 10:09:06,480
Recycled PET prototypes continue to
12530
10:09:03,596 --> 10:09:10,080
advance. New polymer engineering [music]
12531
10:09:06,480 --> 10:09:13,276
aims to create bricks as durable as ABS
12532
10:09:10,080 --> 10:09:16,160
without the environmental cost.
12533
10:09:13,276 --> 10:09:18,640
This transition [music] is not simple. A
12534
10:09:16,160 --> 10:09:21,436
Lego brick must interlock with perfect
12535
10:09:18,640 --> 10:09:23,436
precision. A fraction of a millimeter
12536
10:09:21,436 --> 10:09:25,276
can make the difference between wonder
12537
10:09:23,436 --> 10:09:27,916
and frustration.
12538
10:09:25,276 --> 10:09:30,320
But the mission is clear. A toy that
12539
10:09:27,916 --> 10:09:33,120
lasts forever should also protect the
12540
10:09:30,320 --> 10:09:35,620
world [music] it is played in. Play is
12541
10:09:33,120 --> 10:09:36,480
not a luxury. Play is exploration.
12542
10:09:35,620 --> 10:09:38,720
[music]
12543
10:09:36,480 --> 10:09:41,040
Play is curiosity.
12544
10:09:38,720 --> 10:09:42,880
Play is the earliest form of human
12545
10:09:41,040 --> 10:09:44,960
creativity.
12546
10:09:42,880 --> 10:09:47,276
From wooden ducks in a small Danish
12547
10:09:44,960 --> 10:09:49,596
workshop [music] to interlocking bricks
12548
10:09:47,276 --> 10:09:52,960
that span generations
12549
10:09:49,596 --> 10:09:55,840
to movies, video games, robotics, and
12550
10:09:52,960 --> 10:09:58,480
global fan communities. LEGO has
12551
10:09:55,840 --> 10:10:02,320
remained loyal to a simple truth. When
12552
10:09:58,480 --> 10:10:06,000
we build, we grow. When we imagine, we
12553
10:10:02,320 --> 10:10:09,000
expand. When we play, we become more
12554
10:10:06,000 --> 10:10:09,000
human.
12555
10:10:12,880 --> 10:10:18,196
More than a century ago, a carpenter
12556
10:10:15,680 --> 10:10:20,000
rebuilt his workshop after a fire.
12557
10:10:18,196 --> 10:10:21,520
[music] He rebuilt it again after
12558
10:10:20,000 --> 10:10:24,400
another.
12559
10:10:21,520 --> 10:10:26,800
Not because it was easy, but because he
12560
10:10:24,400 --> 10:10:30,240
believed in the power of making things
12561
10:10:26,800 --> 10:10:31,952
and in the power of play. Today,
12562
10:10:30,240 --> 10:10:35,840
billions of creations have risen from
12563
10:10:31,952 --> 10:10:37,680
[music] that belief. Cities, castles,
12564
10:10:35,840 --> 10:10:39,680
spaceships,
12565
10:10:37,680 --> 10:10:42,880
dreams that exist nowhere else but in
12566
10:10:39,680 --> 10:10:45,840
the minds of the people who build them.
12567
10:10:42,880 --> 10:10:48,080
Lego is not perfect. It has faced
12568
10:10:45,840 --> 10:10:51,916
crises, challenges, [screaming] and
12569
10:10:48,080 --> 10:10:53,916
impossible decisions. But it endures
12570
10:10:51,916 --> 10:10:57,276
through war, through technological
12571
10:10:53,916 --> 10:11:00,960
revolutions, through economic storms.
12572
10:10:57,276 --> 10:11:02,880
Because imagination always endures.
12573
10:11:00,960 --> 10:11:04,240
And as long as there are hands reaching
12574
10:11:02,880 --> 10:11:06,160
for bricks, [music]
12575
10:11:04,240 --> 10:11:08,800
as long as there are minds ready to
12576
10:11:06,160 --> 10:11:11,840
create, the legacy of Ole Kerr
12577
10:11:08,800 --> 10:11:13,200
Christensen will continue.
12578
10:11:11,840 --> 10:11:17,480
Every dream [music]
12579
10:11:13,200 --> 10:11:17,480
starts with a single piece.
12580
10:12:43,680 --> 10:12:51,360
Jensen Huang, the software moat.
12581
10:12:47,916 --> 10:12:54,720
June 18th, 2024.
12582
10:12:51,360 --> 10:12:57,200
For a brief historic moment, the world
12583
10:12:54,720 --> 10:13:00,480
had a new king.
12584
10:12:57,200 --> 10:13:03,680
Jensen Huang, the co-founder and CEO of
12585
10:13:00,480 --> 10:13:06,880
Nvidia, stood at the peak of a $3.4
12586
10:13:03,680 --> 10:13:09,276
trillion mountain.
12587
10:13:06,880 --> 10:13:12,320
Analysts whispered that he wasn't just
12588
10:13:09,276 --> 10:13:15,840
leading a company. He was leading the
12589
10:13:12,320 --> 10:13:18,800
first entity destined for a $4 trillion
12590
10:13:15,840 --> 10:13:20,800
valuation.
12591
10:13:18,800 --> 10:13:24,220
But to understand the man in the leather
12592
10:13:20,800 --> 10:13:27,200
jacket, you cannot look at the triumph.
12593
10:13:24,220 --> 10:13:31,120
[music] You must look at the fear.
12594
10:13:27,200 --> 10:13:35,200
Behind the 250% revenue jumps and the
12595
10:13:31,120 --> 10:13:38,400
soldout age 100 backlogs lies a leader
12596
10:13:35,200 --> 10:13:40,080
obsessed with the cyclical trap.
12597
10:13:38,400 --> 10:13:41,596
In the 60-year history of
12598
10:13:40,080 --> 10:13:44,400
semiconductors,
12599
10:13:41,596 --> 10:13:48,560
giants like Texas Instruments, Intel,
12600
10:13:44,400 --> 10:13:51,520
and Samsung have all held the crown only
12601
10:13:48,560 --> 10:13:54,560
to see it slip away.
12602
10:13:51,520 --> 10:13:59,360
Jensen's mission is simple. Break the
12603
10:13:54,560 --> 10:14:02,480
cycle before it breaks him.
12604
10:13:59,360 --> 10:14:05,120
Flashback to September 1996.
12605
10:14:02,480 --> 10:14:07,520
The golden era of the internet is
12606
10:14:05,120 --> 10:14:11,436
dawning for everyone else but for
12607
10:14:07,520 --> 10:14:14,560
Nvidia. It is a death nail.
12608
10:14:11,436 --> 10:14:17,520
Their first chip, the NV1, is a
12609
10:14:14,560 --> 10:14:19,916
technical ghost rejected by Microsoft's
12610
10:14:17,520 --> 10:14:22,480
DirectX.
12611
10:14:19,916 --> 10:14:25,276
Jensen stands before a dwindling team
12612
10:14:22,480 --> 10:14:28,000
and delivers the most famous mantra in
12613
10:14:25,276 --> 10:14:31,916
Silicon Valley history.
12614
10:14:28,000 --> 10:14:35,436
We have exactly 30 days of oxygen left.
12615
10:14:31,916 --> 10:14:37,840
We are 30 days from bankruptcy.
12616
10:14:35,436 --> 10:14:40,240
How does a man go from cleaning toilets
12617
10:14:37,840 --> 10:14:42,240
in a Kentucky reform school to
12618
10:14:40,240 --> 10:14:45,276
controlling the foundational layer of
12619
10:14:42,240 --> 10:14:48,160
the global AI economy?
12620
10:14:45,276 --> 10:14:51,360
From a red leather booth at a Denny's to
12621
10:14:48,160 --> 10:14:53,680
a legal showdown in the US Supreme Court
12622
10:14:51,360 --> 10:14:55,436
over the very intellectual honesty of
12623
10:14:53,680 --> 10:14:58,080
his empire.
12624
10:14:55,436 --> 10:14:59,680
This is not just a story of silicon and
12625
10:14:58,080 --> 10:15:01,756
software.
12626
10:14:59,680 --> 10:15:04,000
This is the chronicle of the man who
12627
10:15:01,756 --> 10:15:05,596
decided to manufacture intelligence
12628
10:15:04,000 --> 10:15:09,200
itself.
12629
10:15:05,596 --> 10:15:12,640
This is Jensen Hang, the architect of
12630
10:15:09,200 --> 10:15:17,960
the digital brain.
12631
10:15:12,640 --> 10:15:17,960
Chapter one. Forged in the chaos,
12632
10:15:18,160 --> 10:15:24,160
Nvidia was not born from abundance. Its
12633
10:15:21,680 --> 10:15:26,240
DNA was forged in the raw fires of
12634
10:15:24,160 --> 10:15:28,720
survival.
12635
10:15:26,240 --> 10:15:31,520
Jen's son Huang arrived [music] in the
12636
10:15:28,720 --> 10:15:34,080
United States as a young migrant, but
12637
10:15:31,520 --> 10:15:36,400
his destination wasn't an elite prep
12638
10:15:34,080 --> 10:15:38,880
school. Due to a clerical
12639
10:15:36,400 --> 10:15:41,276
misunderstanding by his [music] parents,
12640
10:15:38,880 --> 10:15:44,800
he was sent to Onida Baptist Institute
12641
10:15:41,276 --> 10:15:47,200
in rural Kentucky, a place that at the
12642
10:15:44,800 --> 10:15:49,436
time [music] functioned more as a reform
12643
10:15:47,200 --> 10:15:51,436
school for troubled youths than a
12644
10:15:49,436 --> 10:15:54,560
traditional academy.
12645
10:15:51,436 --> 10:15:56,640
At 9 years old, the future CEO of one of
12646
10:15:54,560 --> 10:15:59,200
the world's most valuable companies
12647
10:15:56,640 --> 10:16:02,160
wasn't coding. He was cleaning the
12648
10:15:59,200 --> 10:16:04,640
toilets of 150 teenagers every [music]
12649
10:16:02,160 --> 10:16:07,200
single afternoon.
12650
10:16:04,640 --> 10:16:08,800
In his personal transcripts, Jensen
12651
10:16:07,200 --> 10:16:12,320
reflects on this with a chilling
12652
10:16:08,800 --> 10:16:14,720
stoicism. I didn't complain. I just
12653
10:16:12,320 --> 10:16:16,640
learned to work hard.
12654
10:16:14,720 --> 10:16:19,360
Bad boy learned the first law of
12655
10:16:16,640 --> 10:16:20,720
accelerated computing decades before it
12656
10:16:19,360 --> 10:16:23,596
existed. [music]
12657
10:16:20,720 --> 10:16:26,160
For a system to be efficient, it must be
12658
10:16:23,596 --> 10:16:28,720
able to process chaos under extreme
12659
10:16:26,160 --> 10:16:31,756
pressure.
12660
10:16:28,720 --> 10:16:34,160
By 15, Jensen was the most efficient
12661
10:16:31,756 --> 10:16:37,276
dishwasher and waiter at a Denny's in
12662
10:16:34,160 --> 10:16:39,756
Portland. I was incredibly shy, he
12663
10:16:37,276 --> 10:16:42,720
admits. But the chaos of the kitchen
12664
10:16:39,756 --> 10:16:45,200
forced me out of my shell.
12665
10:16:42,720 --> 10:16:48,400
It is no coincidence that Nvidia was
12666
10:16:45,200 --> 10:16:51,436
founded in 1993 [music] inside a booth
12667
10:16:48,400 --> 10:16:53,756
at that very same restaurant chain.
12668
10:16:51,436 --> 10:16:56,480
While the world saw the dawn of the PC
12669
10:16:53,756 --> 10:17:00,080
as an office tool for spreadsheets,
12670
10:16:56,480 --> 10:17:04,080
Jensen, Chris Mahovski, and Curtis Pim
12671
10:17:00,080 --> 10:17:08,320
saw a fatal weakness.
12672
10:17:04,080 --> 10:17:11,504
In 1993, Intel's generalpurpose CPU was
12673
10:17:08,320 --> 10:17:13,360
hitting a physical wall. If the future
12674
10:17:11,504 --> 10:17:15,756
[music] of computing was visual and
12675
10:17:13,360 --> 10:17:17,840
immersive, the traditional serial
12676
10:17:15,756 --> 10:17:20,320
architecture would become the bottleneck
12677
10:17:17,840 --> 10:17:23,756
of human progress.
12678
10:17:20,320 --> 10:17:26,880
With only $40,000 in startup capital,
12679
10:17:23,756 --> 10:17:29,360
they founded Nvidia to chase a ghost,
12680
10:17:26,880 --> 10:17:31,276
accelerated computing.
12681
10:17:29,360 --> 10:17:34,320
They bet on a market the rest of the
12682
10:17:31,276 --> 10:17:36,160
industry dismissed as a niche for toys,
12683
10:17:34,320 --> 10:17:38,640
video games. [music]
12684
10:17:36,160 --> 10:17:41,520
Before Jensen, video games were the
12685
10:17:38,640 --> 10:17:43,596
ultimate technological flywheel.
12686
10:17:41,520 --> 10:17:46,400
He knew that if you could master the
12687
10:17:43,596 --> 10:17:48,560
massive realtime rendering of pixels,
12688
10:17:46,400 --> 10:17:50,720
you could eventually simulate reality
12689
10:17:48,560 --> 10:17:53,200
itself.
12690
10:17:50,720 --> 10:17:55,436
But before they could reach that glory,
12691
10:17:53,200 --> 10:18:00,120
they had to survive their first massive
12692
10:17:55,436 --> 10:18:00,120
technical abyss, the NV1.
12693
10:18:07,436 --> 10:18:12,400
By 1995,
12694
10:18:09,276 --> 10:18:15,596
Nvidia's first massive bet, the NV1
12695
10:18:12,400 --> 10:18:18,000
chip, was ready to conquer the market.
12696
10:18:15,596 --> 10:18:20,240
But Jensen Hang had made a catastrophic
12697
10:18:18,000 --> 10:18:21,840
technical gamble.
12698
10:18:20,240 --> 10:18:25,120
At a time when the industry was
12699
10:18:21,840 --> 10:18:27,120
undecided, he bet on quadratic texture
12700
10:18:25,120 --> 10:18:30,800
mapping, a [music] method that used
12701
10:18:27,120 --> 10:18:33,276
curved surfaces to create 3D images.
12702
10:18:30,800 --> 10:18:36,720
It was mathematically intelligent, but
12703
10:18:33,276 --> 10:18:38,720
it was a lonely path. The industry
12704
10:18:36,720 --> 10:18:42,160
hammer dropped when Microsoft released
12705
10:18:38,720 --> 10:18:45,120
its first DirectX API. Microsoft chose
12706
10:18:42,160 --> 10:18:47,840
triangles, not quads, as the universal
12707
10:18:45,120 --> 10:18:49,596
language for PC gaming.
12708
10:18:47,840 --> 10:18:53,120
This decision rendered Nvidia's
12709
10:18:49,596 --> 10:18:56,320
technology instantly obsolete.
12710
10:18:53,120 --> 10:19:00,080
The NV1 wasn't just a failure, it was a
12711
10:18:56,320 --> 10:19:02,856
dead end. The company was bleeding cash.
12712
10:19:00,080 --> 10:19:05,276
And as Jensen famously put it, they were
12713
10:19:02,856 --> 10:19:08,276
[music] staring at exactly 30 days of
12714
10:19:05,276 --> 10:19:08,276
oxygen.
12715
10:19:08,800 --> 10:19:13,120
Nvidia's only lifeline was a strategic
12716
10:19:11,436 --> 10:19:15,276
contract with the Japanese [music] giant
12717
10:19:13,120 --> 10:19:18,400
Seagga to build the graphics engine for
12718
10:19:15,276 --> 10:19:21,680
the Sega Saturn. But Jensen was trapped
12719
10:19:18,400 --> 10:19:23,840
in a moral and business dilemma.
12720
10:19:21,680 --> 10:19:26,400
He knew that if they continued building
12721
10:19:23,840 --> 10:19:29,436
the chip for Sega using Nvidia's flawed
12722
10:19:26,400 --> 10:19:32,240
quad technology, Sega would lose the
12723
10:19:29,436 --> 10:19:35,436
console war to Sony's PlayStation and
12724
10:19:32,240 --> 10:19:38,400
Nvidia would eventually perish anyway.
12725
10:19:35,436 --> 10:19:40,160
In an act of intellectual honesty, or as
12726
10:19:38,400 --> 10:19:41,436
many at the time called corporate
12727
10:19:40,160 --> 10:19:43,916
suicide, [music]
12728
10:19:41,436 --> 10:19:47,200
Jensen flew to Japan. [clears throat] He
12729
10:19:43,916 --> 10:19:50,080
sat across from Shy Chiro Inimiri, the
12730
10:19:47,200 --> 10:19:53,200
CEO of Sega, and told him the brutal
12731
10:19:50,080 --> 10:19:56,160
truth. Our technology is on the wrong
12732
10:19:53,200 --> 10:19:57,596
path. If we finish this project, you
12733
10:19:56,160 --> 10:19:59,680
will produce [music] an inferior
12734
10:19:57,596 --> 10:20:02,560
product.
12735
10:19:59,680 --> 10:20:04,960
Jensen asked for the impossible. He
12736
10:20:02,560 --> 10:20:07,436
asked Sega to terminate the contract,
12737
10:20:04,960 --> 10:20:10,480
but to pay the remaining $5 million
12738
10:20:07,436 --> 10:20:12,640
anyway. If you don't pay us, Jensen
12739
10:20:10,480 --> 10:20:14,880
pleaded. [music] Nvidia will cease to
12740
10:20:12,640 --> 10:20:18,560
exist tomorrow.
12741
10:20:14,880 --> 10:20:21,120
To the astonishment of the tech world
12742
10:20:18,560 --> 10:20:25,756
agreed. He didn't pay for a working
12743
10:20:21,120 --> 10:20:28,640
chip. He paid for Jensen's integrity.
12744
10:20:25,756 --> 10:20:31,120
That $5 million was the most expensive
12745
10:20:28,640 --> 10:20:33,916
oxygen in history.
12746
10:20:31,120 --> 10:20:36,320
To make it last, Jensen had to fire half
12747
10:20:33,916 --> 10:20:38,160
of his workforce. These weren't just
12748
10:20:36,320 --> 10:20:40,960
employees. They were friends who had
12749
10:20:38,160 --> 10:20:43,040
shared the Denny's dream. This trauma
12750
10:20:40,960 --> 10:20:46,240
institutionalized a permanent state of
12751
10:20:43,040 --> 10:20:49,040
emergency at Nvidia.
12752
10:20:46,240 --> 10:20:52,800
With the remaining team, Jensen funneled
12753
10:20:49,040 --> 10:20:55,120
every scent into the Reval 128.
12754
10:20:52,800 --> 10:20:58,000
They abandoned quads and embraced
12755
10:20:55,120 --> 10:21:02,560
Microsoft's triangles with a vengeance.
12756
10:20:58,000 --> 10:21:05,520
When it launched in 1997, the Reva 128
12757
10:21:02,560 --> 10:21:07,276
was 400% faster than anything else on
12758
10:21:05,520 --> 10:21:10,400
the market.
12759
10:21:07,276 --> 10:21:13,360
It was a dive catch of epic proportions.
12760
10:21:10,400 --> 10:21:16,400
Nvidia was no longer just a survivor. It
12761
10:21:13,360 --> 10:21:19,096
had become a hunter.
12762
10:21:16,400 --> 10:21:21,360
But as Jensen looked at the horizon, he
12763
10:21:19,096 --> 10:21:26,916
[music] saw 70 rivals waiting to kill
12764
10:21:21,360 --> 10:21:26,916
him. The war was only beginning.
12765
10:21:31,916 --> 10:21:37,756
The success of the Reval 128 was a dive
12766
10:21:35,200 --> 10:21:40,240
catch, but it placed Nvidia in the
12767
10:21:37,756 --> 10:21:43,756
middle of a slaughterhouse.
12768
10:21:40,240 --> 10:21:46,000
By 1997, there were over 70 companies
12769
10:21:43,756 --> 10:21:47,520
fighting for the soul of the 3D graphics
12770
10:21:46,000 --> 10:21:49,520
market.
12771
10:21:47,520 --> 10:21:52,800
It was a commodity war where price
12772
10:21:49,520 --> 10:21:55,040
cutting was the only weapon for most.
12773
10:21:52,800 --> 10:21:57,040
Jensen Huang realized that if Nvidia
12774
10:21:55,040 --> 10:21:58,800
played by the industry's rules, [music]
12775
10:21:57,040 --> 10:22:00,880
they would eventually be ground into
12776
10:21:58,800 --> 10:22:04,240
dust.
12777
10:22:00,880 --> 10:22:06,160
He decided to break the laws of time.
12778
10:22:04,240 --> 10:22:09,520
The industry standard for developing a
12779
10:22:06,160 --> 10:22:12,720
new chip was 18 to 24 months. Following
12780
10:22:09,520 --> 10:22:15,040
the steady beat of Moore's law, Jensen
12781
10:22:12,720 --> 10:22:18,080
gathered his engineers and imposed a
12782
10:22:15,040 --> 10:22:20,800
suicidal mandate. Nvidia would release a
12783
10:22:18,080 --> 10:22:24,480
brand new groundbreaking architecture
12784
10:22:20,800 --> 10:22:26,480
every 6 months.
12785
10:22:24,480 --> 10:22:28,000
It was a strategy of relentless
12786
10:22:26,480 --> 10:22:31,436
execution.
12787
10:22:28,000 --> 10:22:34,080
By the time a competitor like 3dfx or S3
12788
10:22:31,436 --> 10:22:37,360
could react to one Nvidia [music] chip,
12789
10:22:34,080 --> 10:22:39,360
Jensen had already launched two more.
12790
10:22:37,360 --> 10:22:42,080
This forced the competition into a
12791
10:22:39,360 --> 10:22:44,960
permanent state of obsolescence.
12792
10:22:42,080 --> 10:22:47,360
To achieve this, Nvidia had to reinvent
12793
10:22:44,960 --> 10:22:49,916
its internal engineering, running
12794
10:22:47,360 --> 10:22:52,000
multiple design teams in parallel, a
12795
10:22:49,916 --> 10:22:53,916
massive financial risk that pushed the
12796
10:22:52,000 --> 10:22:58,480
company to the edge of its operational
12797
10:22:53,916 --> 10:23:04,560
capacity. In 1999, the war reached its
12798
10:22:58,480 --> 10:23:07,200
climax. Nvidia released the GeForce 256.
12799
10:23:04,560 --> 10:23:09,436
Jensen didn't just market it as a faster
12800
10:23:07,200 --> 10:23:13,520
card. He coined a term that would
12801
10:23:09,436 --> 10:23:16,480
redefine computing history, the GPU,
12802
10:23:13,520 --> 10:23:19,520
graphics processing unit. This wasn't
12803
10:23:16,480 --> 10:23:21,200
just branding. Technically, the GeForce
12804
10:23:19,520 --> 10:23:23,120
256
12805
10:23:21,200 --> 10:23:25,120
moved the transformer and lighting
12806
10:23:23,120 --> 10:23:28,480
calculations, the most heavy
12807
10:23:25,120 --> 10:23:31,360
mathematical lifting of 3D off the CPU
12808
10:23:28,480 --> 10:23:33,840
and onto the chip itself. It was the
12809
10:23:31,360 --> 10:23:36,320
birth of a new era.
12810
10:23:33,840 --> 10:23:38,320
This performance leap was so massive
12811
10:23:36,320 --> 10:23:40,320
that Nvidia secured the prestigious
12812
10:23:38,320 --> 10:23:44,160
contract for the original Microsoft
12813
10:23:40,320 --> 10:23:46,720
Xbox, receiving a crucial $200 million
12814
10:23:44,160 --> 10:23:49,840
advance.
12815
10:23:46,720 --> 10:23:52,400
The 6-month cycle worked. By the early
12816
10:23:49,840 --> 10:23:56,720
2000s, the 70 competitors had been
12817
10:23:52,400 --> 10:23:59,596
reduced to just two, Nvidia and ATI.
12818
10:23:56,720 --> 10:24:01,916
In a final act of dominance, Nvidia
12819
10:23:59,596 --> 10:24:06,480
acquired the assets of its former idol
12820
10:24:01,916 --> 10:24:09,756
and arch rival 3dfx in 2000.
12821
10:24:06,480 --> 10:24:13,200
Jensen had cleared the board. He was the
12822
10:24:09,756 --> 10:24:15,840
undisputed king of gaming. But at the
12823
10:24:13,200 --> 10:24:17,596
very moment of his greatest triumph, he
12824
10:24:15,840 --> 10:24:20,320
began to look at the high performance
12825
10:24:17,596 --> 10:24:22,720
computing market. He realized that the
12826
10:24:20,320 --> 10:24:25,680
GPU's massive parallel math could do
12827
10:24:22,720 --> 10:24:28,720
more than just draw pixels. It could
12828
10:24:25,680 --> 10:24:32,240
solve the world's most complex problems.
12829
10:24:28,720 --> 10:24:36,520
The seeds of CUDA and the $10 billion
12830
10:24:32,240 --> 10:24:36,520
gamble were being planted.
12831
10:24:41,840 --> 10:24:48,240
By 2006, Nvidia was the undisputed king
12832
10:24:45,424 --> 10:24:50,400
[music] of the gaming world. But Jensen
12833
10:24:48,240 --> 10:24:52,560
Hang was restless. He [music] realized
12834
10:24:50,400 --> 10:24:54,480
that the same parallel processing power
12835
10:24:52,560 --> 10:24:56,720
that rendered pixels for World of
12836
10:24:54,480 --> 10:24:58,640
Warcraft could be used to solve the
12837
10:24:56,720 --> 10:25:00,320
world's most complex mathematical
12838
10:24:58,640 --> 10:25:03,108
problems.
12839
10:25:00,320 --> 10:25:06,000
He launched CUDA, compute unified
12840
10:25:03,108 --> 10:25:07,596
[music] device architecture. It was a
12841
10:25:06,000 --> 10:25:10,160
declaration of war against the
12842
10:25:07,596 --> 10:25:13,040
CPUcentric [music] world.
12843
10:25:10,160 --> 10:25:15,840
The goal was simple yet insane.
12844
10:25:13,040 --> 10:25:18,800
Transform every NVIDIA GPU into a
12845
10:25:15,840 --> 10:25:20,320
general purpose supercomput.
12846
10:25:18,800 --> 10:25:23,916
But this decision [music] came with a
12847
10:25:20,320 --> 10:25:26,880
staggering cost. Jensen mandated that
12848
10:25:23,916 --> 10:25:28,656
every single GPU Nvidia manufactured
12849
10:25:26,880 --> 10:25:31,120
from the high-end workstation cards
12850
10:25:28,656 --> 10:25:33,436
[music] to the cheapest laptop chips
12851
10:25:31,120 --> 10:25:36,880
must include the extra transistors and
12852
10:25:33,436 --> 10:25:40,480
hardware logic to support CUDA. [music]
12853
10:25:36,880 --> 10:25:42,640
Wall Street was horrified.
12854
10:25:40,480 --> 10:25:45,756
For nearly a decade, Nvidia [music]
12855
10:25:42,640 --> 10:25:49,040
spent billions, estimated at over 10
12856
10:25:45,756 --> 10:25:51,200
billion dollars in cumulative R&D on a
12857
10:25:49,040 --> 10:25:54,000
software platform that almost no one was
12858
10:25:51,200 --> 10:25:56,160
using. Profit margins, [music] which
12859
10:25:54,000 --> 10:25:59,596
once sat comfortably high, were
12860
10:25:56,160 --> 10:26:01,916
sacrificed at the altar of this vision.
12861
10:25:59,596 --> 10:26:05,120
Analysts mocked the strategy, [music]
12862
10:26:01,916 --> 10:26:07,596
calling it the bridge to nowhere. During
12863
10:26:05,120 --> 10:26:10,080
the 2008 [music] financial crisis,
12864
10:26:07,596 --> 10:26:12,400
Nvidia's market cap plummeted and the
12865
10:26:10,080 --> 10:26:14,564
company was once again staring into the
12866
10:26:12,400 --> 10:26:14,564
abyss. [music]
12867
10:26:14,640 --> 10:26:19,200
But Jensen wasn't just building
12868
10:26:16,320 --> 10:26:22,320
hardware. He was building a software
12869
10:26:19,200 --> 10:26:24,400
moat. He sent Nvidia engineers to
12870
10:26:22,320 --> 10:26:26,320
universities around the world, [music]
12871
10:26:24,400 --> 10:26:29,040
helping professors teach parallel
12872
10:26:26,320 --> 10:26:31,276
programming using CUDA.
12873
10:26:29,040 --> 10:26:33,840
He was seeding the ground. [music]
12874
10:26:31,276 --> 10:26:37,040
While competitors like Intel and AMD
12875
10:26:33,840 --> 10:26:39,756
focused on making faster chips, Jensen
12876
10:26:37,040 --> 10:26:42,160
was building [music] an entire language.
12877
10:26:39,756 --> 10:26:44,640
By the time a developer learned CUDA,
12878
10:26:42,160 --> 10:26:46,720
they were locked in. Switching to a
12879
10:26:44,640 --> 10:26:49,120
competitor wouldn't just mean buying a
12880
10:26:46,720 --> 10:26:52,560
new chip. It would mean rewriting
12881
10:26:49,120 --> 10:26:55,680
millions of lines of code.
12882
10:26:52,560 --> 10:26:58,320
Year after year, Jensen defended CUDA in
12883
10:26:55,680 --> 10:27:00,480
boardrooms and earning calls. He
12884
10:26:58,320 --> 10:27:02,800
practiced what he calls long-term
12885
10:27:00,480 --> 10:27:05,596
commitment to a vision, even when the
12886
10:27:02,800 --> 10:27:07,916
data didn't yet support it. He was
12887
10:27:05,596 --> 10:27:09,436
waiting for a killer app for accelerated
12888
10:27:07,916 --> 10:27:11,436
computing.
12889
10:27:09,436 --> 10:27:13,200
He didn't know what it would be. [music]
12890
10:27:11,436 --> 10:27:15,756
But he knew that as data grew
12891
10:27:13,200 --> 10:27:18,800
exponentially, the serial processing of
12892
10:27:15,756 --> 10:27:21,200
the CPU would eventually fail.
12893
10:27:18,800 --> 10:27:23,040
The silence of the Cuda winter was about
12894
10:27:21,200 --> 10:27:25,248
to be broken.
12895
10:27:23,040 --> 10:27:25,840
In a lab at the University of Toronto,
12896
10:27:25,248 --> 10:27:28,960
[music]
12897
10:27:25,840 --> 10:27:30,960
a PhD student named Alex Kresvki was
12898
10:27:28,960 --> 10:27:34,720
about to feed a neural network called
12899
10:27:30,960 --> 10:27:37,120
Alexet into those Nvidia GPUs.
12900
10:27:34,720 --> 10:27:40,240
The big bang of artificial intelligence
12901
10:27:37,120 --> 10:27:42,640
was seconds away, and Jensen Huang was
12902
10:27:40,240 --> 10:27:47,080
the only person on Earth who had already
12903
10:27:42,640 --> 10:27:47,080
built the engine to power it.
12904
10:27:52,560 --> 10:27:58,320
The year was 2012. While the world saw
12905
10:27:55,916 --> 10:28:00,560
just another academic competition,
12906
10:27:58,320 --> 10:28:03,200
Jensen Hang saw the spark that would
12907
10:28:00,560 --> 10:28:06,480
ignite a global revolution.
12908
10:28:03,200 --> 10:28:09,840
A neural network called AlexNet, powered
12909
10:28:06,480 --> 10:28:13,120
by NVIDIA GPUs, crushed the competition
12910
10:28:09,840 --> 10:28:15,680
in image recognition. It was the big
12911
10:28:13,120 --> 10:28:18,480
bang of deep learning.
12912
10:28:15,680 --> 10:28:21,680
Jensen didn't just celebrate, he pivoted
12913
10:28:18,480 --> 10:28:24,720
the entire company. He realized that the
12914
10:28:21,680 --> 10:28:26,820
$10 billion gamble on CUDA had finally
12915
10:28:24,720 --> 10:28:28,840
found its soul, artificial intelligence.
12916
10:28:26,820 --> 10:28:28,840
[music]
12917
10:28:28,960 --> 10:28:33,520
This pivot transformed Nvidia from a
12918
10:28:31,276 --> 10:28:35,596
graphics card company into the
12919
10:28:33,520 --> 10:28:38,608
foundational engine of the world's most
12920
10:28:35,596 --> 10:28:40,160
powerful data centers.
12921
10:28:38,608 --> 10:28:43,120
[music] Jensen's vision was no longer
12922
10:28:40,160 --> 10:28:45,120
about drawing pixels. It was about
12923
10:28:43,120 --> 10:28:47,596
generative AI.
12924
10:28:45,120 --> 10:28:49,436
By the time Chat GPT launched [music] in
12925
10:28:47,596 --> 10:28:52,160
late 2022,
12926
10:28:49,436 --> 10:28:54,000
Nvidia didn't just have a head start.
12927
10:28:52,160 --> 10:28:56,960
They were the only ones at the starting
12928
10:28:54,000 --> 10:28:58,640
line.
12929
10:28:56,960 --> 10:29:01,120
Jensen acted [music] with a speed that
12930
10:28:58,640 --> 10:29:03,680
terrified his competitors. He didn't
12931
10:29:01,120 --> 10:29:06,560
just wait for orders. He re-engineered
12932
10:29:03,680 --> 10:29:09,436
Nvidia's entire road map.
12933
10:29:06,560 --> 10:29:12,016
In 2016, he personally delivered the
12934
10:29:09,436 --> 10:29:14,560
first Nvidia DGX1,
12935
10:29:12,016 --> 10:29:17,360
[music] the world's first AI supercomput
12936
10:29:14,560 --> 10:29:19,276
in a box to a then small nonprofit
12937
10:29:17,360 --> 10:29:21,840
called OpenAI.
12938
10:29:19,276 --> 10:29:25,400
He was very clear, [music] this will
12939
10:29:21,840 --> 10:29:25,400
change the world.
12940
10:29:26,080 --> 10:29:29,436
Technically, this period was about
12941
10:29:27,916 --> 10:29:31,916
specialization. [music]
12942
10:29:29,436 --> 10:29:34,640
Nvidia began adding tensor cores to its
12943
10:29:31,916 --> 10:29:36,320
chips. These weren't for graphics. They
12944
10:29:34,640 --> 10:29:38,320
were designed specifically for the deep
12945
10:29:36,320 --> 10:29:40,000
learning math [music] that powers neural
12946
10:29:38,320 --> 10:29:41,916
networks.
12947
10:29:40,000 --> 10:29:44,480
Nvidia was no longer just making a
12948
10:29:41,916 --> 10:29:46,640
faster graphics card. It was building a
12949
10:29:44,480 --> 10:29:50,640
specialized [music] brain.
12950
10:29:46,640 --> 10:29:52,160
By 2017, the momentum was unstoppable.
12951
10:29:50,640 --> 10:29:54,800
Every major [music] tech giant was
12952
10:29:52,160 --> 10:29:56,800
building AI labs and they all had one
12953
10:29:54,800 --> 10:29:59,120
thing in common. They were built on
12954
10:29:56,800 --> 10:30:01,276
Nvidia's stack.
12955
10:29:59,120 --> 10:30:04,000
This was the era when the software mode
12956
10:30:01,276 --> 10:30:05,200
became a fortress. Thousands of
12957
10:30:04,000 --> 10:30:08,720
researchers were now writing [music]
12958
10:30:05,200 --> 10:30:10,560
their doctoral thesis on CUDA.
12959
10:30:08,720 --> 10:30:12,480
If a competitor wanted to challenge
12960
10:30:10,560 --> 10:30:14,880
Nvidia, they [music] wouldn't just need
12961
10:30:12,480 --> 10:30:17,520
a better chip. They would have to
12962
10:30:14,880 --> 10:30:18,960
convince the world's brightest minds to
12963
10:30:17,520 --> 10:30:20,960
forget everything [music] they had
12964
10:30:18,960 --> 10:30:23,412
learned.
12965
10:30:20,960 --> 10:30:26,320
But as the AI revolution took hold,
12966
10:30:23,412 --> 10:30:28,880
[music] an unexpected shadow emerged. A
12967
10:30:26,320 --> 10:30:30,480
new craze called Bitcoin and Ethereum
12968
10:30:28,880 --> 10:30:33,916
began to [music] consume Nvidia's
12969
10:30:30,480 --> 10:30:36,960
supply. To the world, Nvidia looked
12970
10:30:33,916 --> 10:30:38,240
invincible. But internally, Jensen was
12971
10:30:36,960 --> 10:30:40,400
wary. [music]
12972
10:30:38,240 --> 10:30:41,916
Jensen knew that every bubble eventually
12973
10:30:40,400 --> 10:30:44,240
bursts.
12974
10:30:41,916 --> 10:30:46,336
This period of explosive accidental
12975
10:30:44,240 --> 10:30:48,240
growth from crypto miners was creating
12976
10:30:46,336 --> 10:30:49,756
[music] a shadow over the company's true
12977
10:30:48,240 --> 10:30:51,916
mission,
12978
10:30:49,756 --> 10:30:54,800
setting the stage for a highstakes legal
12979
10:30:51,916 --> 10:30:56,720
battle over corporate transparency and a
12980
10:30:54,800 --> 10:31:00,144
financial storm that would test the very
12981
10:30:56,720 --> 10:31:00,144
foundations of his leadership. [music]
12982
10:31:04,400 --> 10:31:10,000
In 2018, Nvidia was riding a wave that
12983
10:31:07,840 --> 10:31:11,756
looked like a miracle but felt [music]
12984
10:31:10,000 --> 10:31:13,916
like a mirage.
12985
10:31:11,756 --> 10:31:15,808
The explosion of cryptocurrency mining
12986
10:31:13,916 --> 10:31:18,320
had created an insatiable hunger for
12987
10:31:15,808 --> 10:31:20,880
[music] GeForce cards.
12988
10:31:18,320 --> 10:31:23,200
To the outside world, Nvidia's revenue
12989
10:31:20,880 --> 10:31:25,596
was reaching historic heights. [music]
12990
10:31:23,200 --> 10:31:28,560
However, beneath the surface, a
12991
10:31:25,596 --> 10:31:30,240
dangerous ambiguity was growing. Jensen
12992
10:31:28,560 --> 10:31:32,840
Huang insisted that the growth was
12993
10:31:30,240 --> 10:31:35,596
driven by a gaming renaissance, but the
12994
10:31:32,840 --> 10:31:39,756
[music] reality was more volatile. The
12995
10:31:35,596 --> 10:31:42,160
mirage evaporated in [music] late 2018.
12996
10:31:39,756 --> 10:31:44,160
The crypto winter arrived and [music]
12997
10:31:42,160 --> 10:31:46,080
the demand for mining chips vanished
12998
10:31:44,160 --> 10:31:48,000
overnight.
12999
10:31:46,080 --> 10:31:49,916
Nvidia was left with a massive surplus
13000
10:31:48,000 --> 10:31:52,560
of inventory and [music] the market's
13001
10:31:49,916 --> 10:31:57,200
reaction was brutal. The company's stock
13002
10:31:52,560 --> 10:31:59,840
price plummeted by 28% in a single day.
13003
10:31:57,200 --> 10:32:03,756
The invincible architect of AI was
13004
10:31:59,840 --> 10:32:05,520
suddenly facing a crisis of credibility.
13005
10:32:03,756 --> 10:32:07,276
This financial collapse ignited a
13006
10:32:05,520 --> 10:32:09,120
highstakes legal battle that would
13007
10:32:07,276 --> 10:32:11,200
eventually reach the steps of the US
13008
10:32:09,120 --> 10:32:13,436
Supreme Court.
13009
10:32:11,200 --> 10:32:15,756
A group of institutional investors filed
13010
10:32:13,436 --> 10:32:17,680
a class action lawsuit [music] alleging
13011
10:32:15,756 --> 10:32:20,480
that Jensen Huang had deliberately
13012
10:32:17,680 --> 10:32:22,620
misled the market. The core of the case
13013
10:32:20,480 --> 10:32:24,080
rested on a single devastating word.
13014
10:32:22,620 --> 10:32:28,000
[music]
13015
10:32:24,080 --> 10:32:30,000
Cienta, the intent to deceive.
13016
10:32:28,000 --> 10:32:32,000
The accusation was sharp. [music]
13017
10:32:30,000 --> 10:32:34,240
Investors claimed that internal Nvidia
13018
10:32:32,000 --> 10:32:36,000
reports clearly showed over a billion
13019
10:32:34,240 --> 10:32:38,480
dollars in revenue attributed [music] to
13020
10:32:36,000 --> 10:32:40,000
gamers was actually coming from crypto
13021
10:32:38,480 --> 10:32:42,240
miners.
13022
10:32:40,000 --> 10:32:44,560
Jensen fought back, defending his
13023
10:32:42,240 --> 10:32:46,560
intellectual honesty and arguing that
13024
10:32:44,560 --> 10:32:47,520
the expert opinions used against him
13025
10:32:46,560 --> 10:32:49,680
were nothing [music] more than
13026
10:32:47,520 --> 10:32:52,000
speculation.
13027
10:32:49,680 --> 10:32:54,320
This battle known as petition number
13028
10:32:52,000 --> 10:32:56,400
23-970 [music]
13029
10:32:54,320 --> 10:32:59,120
became a landmark moment for Silicon
13030
10:32:56,400 --> 10:32:59,916
Valley, questioning how much a CEO must
13031
10:32:59,120 --> 10:33:01,840
disclose [music]
13032
10:32:59,916 --> 10:33:03,916
when their technology accidentally
13033
10:33:01,840 --> 10:33:06,160
conquers a market they didn't intend to
13034
10:33:03,916 --> 10:33:08,560
lead.
13035
10:33:06,160 --> 10:33:10,400
While lawyers argued in Washington,
13036
10:33:08,560 --> 10:33:13,200
Jensen was already looking past the
13037
10:33:10,400 --> 10:33:15,596
wreckage. He didn't let the legal storm
13038
10:33:13,200 --> 10:33:18,160
or the inventory crisis slowed down his
13039
10:33:15,596 --> 10:33:20,320
ultimate plan. He doubled down on the
13040
10:33:18,160 --> 10:33:22,960
data center, [music] acquiring Melanox
13041
10:33:20,320 --> 10:33:26,080
for $7 billion to control the highways
13042
10:33:22,960 --> 10:33:27,756
between his chips. He was preparing for
13043
10:33:26,080 --> 10:33:30,400
a world where AI [music] wouldn't just
13044
10:33:27,756 --> 10:33:33,360
be a research project, but the operating
13045
10:33:30,400 --> 10:33:36,080
system of the entire [music] planet.
13046
10:33:33,360 --> 10:33:38,560
The storm of 2018 had been a warning.
13047
10:33:36,080 --> 10:33:42,276
The era of generative AI was about to
13048
10:33:38,560 --> 10:33:42,276
provide the [music] answer.
13049
10:33:46,000 --> 10:33:50,880
By 2022,
13050
10:33:47,916 --> 10:33:53,040
the world had changed. The launch of
13051
10:33:50,880 --> 10:33:55,916
Chat GPT signaled the arrival of the
13052
10:33:53,040 --> 10:33:59,200
generative AI era, and Nvidia was the
13053
10:33:55,916 --> 10:34:01,360
only company prepared to power it.
13054
10:33:59,200 --> 10:34:04,240
But as Jensen Huang stood on the brink
13055
10:34:01,360 --> 10:34:07,436
of total market dominance, a new wall
13056
10:34:04,240 --> 10:34:10,400
was built, not by a competitor, but by
13057
10:34:07,436 --> 10:34:11,840
the US government. Washington imposed
13058
10:34:10,400 --> 10:34:15,200
strict export controls [music] on
13059
10:34:11,840 --> 10:34:18,240
high-end AI chips. For Nvidia, the
13060
10:34:15,200 --> 10:34:20,160
stakes were astronomical.
13061
10:34:18,240 --> 10:34:22,080
According to the geographical revenue
13062
10:34:20,160 --> 10:34:25,520
data, [music] China accounted for
13063
10:34:22,080 --> 10:34:28,160
approximately 20% to 25% of the
13064
10:34:25,520 --> 10:34:30,560
company's total business.
13065
10:34:28,160 --> 10:34:32,968
Overnight, Jensen had to navigate a
13066
10:34:30,560 --> 10:34:34,640
geopolitical minefield, redesigning
13067
10:34:32,968 --> 10:34:36,720
[music] chips specifically to comply
13068
10:34:34,640 --> 10:34:38,864
with regulations while trying to keep
13069
10:34:36,720 --> 10:34:41,120
his most important market from slipping
13070
10:34:38,864 --> 10:34:43,360
[music] away.
13071
10:34:41,120 --> 10:34:45,360
Jensen's answer to the geopolitical and
13072
10:34:43,360 --> 10:34:46,880
technical pressure was the Blackwall
13073
10:34:45,360 --> 10:34:49,344
architecture.
13074
10:34:46,880 --> 10:34:50,000
If the H100 was a spark, Blackwell
13075
10:34:49,344 --> 10:34:54,080
[music]
13076
10:34:50,000 --> 10:34:55,896
was a sun. Packing an incredible 208
13077
10:34:54,080 --> 10:34:57,756
billion transistors, it delivered
13078
10:34:55,896 --> 10:35:01,596
[music] up to 30 times the performance
13079
10:34:57,756 --> 10:35:03,520
of its predecessor for certain AI tasks.
13080
10:35:01,596 --> 10:35:06,240
But Blackwell represented a deeper
13081
10:35:03,520 --> 10:35:09,048
strategic shift. Nvidia was no longer
13082
10:35:06,240 --> 10:35:09,048
just a chipmaker. [music]
13083
10:35:09,200 --> 10:35:13,680
Jensen was now building entire AI
13084
10:35:12,080 --> 10:35:15,840
factories.
13085
10:35:13,680 --> 10:35:18,240
By integrating Melanox's networking
13086
10:35:15,840 --> 10:35:20,128
technology, he controlled the highways
13087
10:35:18,240 --> 10:35:21,916
that allowed thousands of chips to talk
13088
10:35:20,128 --> 10:35:24,880
[music] to each other as if they were a
13089
10:35:21,916 --> 10:35:27,120
single giant brain.
13090
10:35:24,880 --> 10:35:29,040
This system on a cluster approach meant
13091
10:35:27,120 --> 10:35:31,520
that even if a competitor produced a
13092
10:35:29,040 --> 10:35:33,120
faster individual chip, they couldn't
13093
10:35:31,520 --> 10:35:36,160
compete with the sheer efficiency of the
13094
10:35:33,120 --> 10:35:38,800
Nvidia ecosystem.
13095
10:35:36,160 --> 10:35:42,000
The financial results were staggering.
13096
10:35:38,800 --> 10:35:46,000
By early 2024, Nvidia's data center
13097
10:35:42,000 --> 10:35:50,640
revenue had surged to over $47 billion,
13098
10:35:46,000 --> 10:35:53,520
a 217% increase in a single year. The
13099
10:35:50,640 --> 10:35:54,960
company was operating with 78.4%
13100
10:35:53,520 --> 10:35:56,800
gross margins. [music]
13101
10:35:54,960 --> 10:35:59,040
Profit levels usually reserved for
13102
10:35:56,800 --> 10:36:01,120
software giants, not hardware
13103
10:35:59,040 --> 10:36:04,800
manufacturers.
13104
10:36:01,120 --> 10:36:08,080
On June 18th, 2024, Nvidia became the
13105
10:36:04,800 --> 10:36:10,960
most valuable company on the planet.
13106
10:36:08,080 --> 10:36:14,160
Yet, even as he stood at the summit,
13107
10:36:10,960 --> 10:36:16,960
Jensen refused to relax. He looked the
13108
10:36:14,160 --> 10:36:19,680
60-year history of semiconductors, the
13109
10:36:16,960 --> 10:36:22,400
rise and fall of Intel, the cycles of
13110
10:36:19,680 --> 10:36:24,560
Samsung and TI, and he knew that being
13111
10:36:22,400 --> 10:36:27,916
on top was the most dangerous place to
13112
10:36:24,560 --> 10:36:31,200
be. His next challenge wouldn't just be
13113
10:36:27,916 --> 10:36:34,916
about chips. It would be about giving AI
13114
10:36:31,200 --> 10:36:34,916
a physical body.
13115
10:36:38,720 --> 10:36:43,840
In 2024, Jensen Huang had already
13116
10:36:41,596 --> 10:36:45,040
conquered the digital world, but his
13117
10:36:43,840 --> 10:36:48,320
eyes were fixed on [music] a new
13118
10:36:45,040 --> 10:36:50,240
frontier, the physical one. He declared
13119
10:36:48,320 --> 10:36:52,800
that the next wave of AI would be
13120
10:36:50,240 --> 10:36:55,120
physical AI. Intelligence that doesn't
13121
10:36:52,800 --> 10:36:58,480
just process text or images, [music]
13122
10:36:55,120 --> 10:37:00,720
but understands the laws of physics.
13123
10:36:58,480 --> 10:37:03,756
Everything that moves from autonomous
13124
10:37:00,720 --> 10:37:06,880
cars to humanoid robots would eventually
13125
10:37:03,756 --> 10:37:09,276
be powered by an Nvidia brain.
13126
10:37:06,880 --> 10:37:13,040
This identifies it as the third pillar
13127
10:37:09,276 --> 10:37:16,000
of Nvidia's future. To win this race,
13128
10:37:13,040 --> 10:37:18,080
Jensen isn't just building chips. He is
13129
10:37:16,000 --> 10:37:20,240
building the omniverse.
13130
10:37:18,080 --> 10:37:22,000
This is a digital world where robots are
13131
10:37:20,240 --> 10:37:24,800
trained millions [music] of times in a
13132
10:37:22,000 --> 10:37:27,360
virtual simulation before they ever step
13133
10:37:24,800 --> 10:37:30,160
into a real factory.
13134
10:37:27,360 --> 10:37:32,240
By the time a robot starts its job, it
13135
10:37:30,160 --> 10:37:35,360
has already lived a thousand lifetimes
13136
10:37:32,240 --> 10:37:37,916
of experience. Jensen's strategy is a
13137
10:37:35,360 --> 10:37:40,080
total vertical integration. He [music]
13138
10:37:37,916 --> 10:37:42,320
is transforming Nvidia into a provider
13139
10:37:40,080 --> 10:37:44,480
of AI factories.
13140
10:37:42,320 --> 10:37:46,852
He believes that in the future, every
13141
10:37:44,480 --> 10:37:49,040
company will have two factories, one
13142
10:37:46,852 --> 10:37:50,640
[music] that produces physical goods and
13143
10:37:49,040 --> 10:37:52,320
a digital one that produces
13144
10:37:50,640 --> 10:37:54,400
intelligence.
13145
10:37:52,320 --> 10:37:56,480
With the Melanox networking, high-speed
13146
10:37:54,400 --> 10:37:58,960
highways, and [music] the CUDA software
13147
10:37:56,480 --> 10:38:00,560
fortress, Jensen has ensured that the
13148
10:37:58,960 --> 10:38:03,040
entire infrastructure [music] of this
13149
10:38:00,560 --> 10:38:06,480
new industrial revolution runs on
13150
10:38:03,040 --> 10:38:08,320
Nvidia. When asked about his legacy,
13151
10:38:06,480 --> 10:38:11,360
Jensen [music] doesn't talk about stock
13152
10:38:08,320 --> 10:38:13,708
prices or trillions of dollars. He talks
13153
10:38:11,360 --> 10:38:15,756
about material sciences and scientific
13154
10:38:13,708 --> 10:38:17,840
[music] discovery.
13155
10:38:15,756 --> 10:38:20,560
He believes AI will give humans
13156
10:38:17,840 --> 10:38:23,276
superpowers, helping us solve climate
13157
10:38:20,560 --> 10:38:25,520
change, cure diseases, and handle the
13158
10:38:23,276 --> 10:38:28,480
dangerous and mundane tasks so we can
13159
10:38:25,520 --> 10:38:31,480
focus on what truly makes us human,
13160
10:38:28,480 --> 10:38:31,480
curiosity.
13161
10:38:34,080 --> 10:38:38,400
By 2025,
13162
10:38:36,080 --> 10:38:40,160
the world had entered a state of compute
13163
10:38:38,400 --> 10:38:43,360
geopolitics.
13164
10:38:40,160 --> 10:38:45,916
Nvidia was no longer just a company. It
13165
10:38:43,360 --> 10:38:49,120
had become a strategic resource similar
13166
10:38:45,916 --> 10:38:51,756
to oil or grain. The launch of the
13167
10:38:49,120 --> 10:38:54,080
Blackwell B200 hadn't [music] just met
13168
10:38:51,756 --> 10:38:57,680
demand. It had ignited a global
13169
10:38:54,080 --> 10:39:00,720
scramble. Nations like Japan, France,
13170
10:38:57,680 --> 10:39:03,276
and the UAE began building sovereign AI
13171
10:39:00,720 --> 10:39:04,880
clouds. Realizing that depending on a
13172
10:39:03,276 --> 10:39:06,720
few Silicon Valley giants for
13173
10:39:04,880 --> 10:39:08,800
intelligence [music] was a national
13174
10:39:06,720 --> 10:39:12,160
security risk.
13175
10:39:08,800 --> 10:39:15,916
But as 2025 progressed, a new whisper
13176
10:39:12,160 --> 10:39:18,880
began to haunt the industry. The wall.
13177
10:39:15,916 --> 10:39:21,756
For years, AI progress relied on scaling
13178
10:39:18,880 --> 10:39:24,000
laws. The idea that more data and more
13179
10:39:21,756 --> 10:39:27,916
GPUs would inevitably lead to more
13180
10:39:24,000 --> 10:39:30,640
intelligence. However, in 2026, the
13181
10:39:27,916 --> 10:39:33,276
returns are starting to diminish. Data
13182
10:39:30,640 --> 10:39:35,276
centers are becoming so massive, they
13183
10:39:33,276 --> 10:39:37,756
require their own dedicated nuclear
13184
10:39:35,276 --> 10:39:41,200
power plants. and the lowhanging fruit
13185
10:39:37,756 --> 10:39:43,436
of internet data has been exhausted.
13186
10:39:41,200 --> 10:39:46,160
Jensen's response to the wall is
13187
10:39:43,436 --> 10:39:48,240
typically defiant. He pivoted the
13188
10:39:46,160 --> 10:39:52,160
industry towards synthetic data and
13189
10:39:48,240 --> 10:39:54,640
reasoning models. In 2026, Nvidia's
13190
10:39:52,160 --> 10:39:58,880
focus has shifted from simply training
13191
10:39:54,640 --> 10:40:01,200
AI to inference at scale. The goal is no
13192
10:39:58,880 --> 10:40:03,120
longer just to build a model that knows
13193
10:40:01,200 --> 10:40:05,120
everything, [music] but to build a
13194
10:40:03,120 --> 10:40:07,120
system that thinks through a problem for
13195
10:40:05,120 --> 10:40:09,680
days, if necessary, using [music]
13196
10:40:07,120 --> 10:40:12,000
massive clusters of GPUs to reach a
13197
10:40:09,680 --> 10:40:15,200
breakthrough.
13198
10:40:12,000 --> 10:40:18,400
The competition in 2026 has never been
13199
10:40:15,200 --> 10:40:20,880
fiercer. Nvidia's biggest customers,
13200
10:40:18,400 --> 10:40:23,040
Amazon, Google, and Microsoft, have
13201
10:40:20,880 --> 10:40:24,960
become its most dangerous rivals,
13202
10:40:23,040 --> 10:40:28,880
pouring billions into their own custom
13203
10:40:24,960 --> 10:40:30,960
AI chips to escape the NVIDIA attacks.
13204
10:40:28,880 --> 10:40:34,080
Yet, the software mode remains
13205
10:40:30,960 --> 10:40:36,800
unreached. While others build chips,
13206
10:40:34,080 --> 10:40:39,520
Jensen is building the entire ecosystem,
13207
10:40:36,800 --> 10:40:41,120
the networking, the libraries, and the
13208
10:40:39,520 --> 10:40:43,916
pre-trained models that make a
13209
10:40:41,120 --> 10:40:47,276
competitor's hardware feel like a relic
13210
10:40:43,916 --> 10:40:50,000
before it even leaves the factory.
13211
10:40:47,276 --> 10:40:51,596
In this era, Jensen Huang has become one
13212
10:40:50,000 --> 10:40:54,160
of the world's most influential
13213
10:40:51,596 --> 10:40:55,596
diplomat. [music] He navigates a world
13214
10:40:54,160 --> 10:40:57,916
where the power grid is the new
13215
10:40:55,596 --> 10:40:59,840
bottleneck and where a single shipment
13216
10:40:57,916 --> 10:41:02,240
of chips can determine the economic
13217
10:40:59,840 --> 10:41:05,120
future of a country.
13218
10:41:02,240 --> 10:41:08,240
The trillion dollar question of 2026 is
13219
10:41:05,120 --> 10:41:10,320
no longer if AI will change the world,
13220
10:41:08,240 --> 10:41:13,640
but who will own the infrastructure of
13221
10:41:10,320 --> 10:41:13,640
that change.
13222
10:41:16,960 --> 10:41:21,436
The story of Nvidia is often told as a
13223
10:41:19,360 --> 10:41:24,400
series of lucky breaks or inevitable
13224
10:41:21,436 --> 10:41:26,720
triumphs. But as we look at the empire
13225
10:41:24,400 --> 10:41:29,520
Jensen Hang [music] has built, the
13226
10:41:26,720 --> 10:41:31,680
reality is far more deliberate and far
13227
10:41:29,520 --> 10:41:33,360
more precarious.
13228
10:41:31,680 --> 10:41:35,200
In 2026, [music]
13229
10:41:33,360 --> 10:41:37,200
the company stands at the center of the
13230
10:41:35,200 --> 10:41:40,720
greatest industrial shift in human
13231
10:41:37,200 --> 10:41:43,756
history. Yet for Jensen, the valuation
13232
10:41:40,720 --> 10:41:46,800
of three, four, or 5 trillion is a
13233
10:41:43,756 --> 10:41:48,720
lagging indicator. The true metric is
13234
10:41:46,800 --> 10:41:50,720
the oxygen.
13235
10:41:48,720 --> 10:41:52,560
Throughout his journey, from the dish
13236
10:41:50,720 --> 10:41:55,276
pits of Denny's to the halls of the
13237
10:41:52,560 --> 10:41:56,880
Supreme Court, Jensen has maintained a
13238
10:41:55,276 --> 10:41:58,640
philosophy of intellectual [music]
13239
10:41:56,880 --> 10:42:01,200
honesty.
13240
10:41:58,640 --> 10:42:03,916
He admits when the technology is wrong.
13241
10:42:01,200 --> 10:42:05,680
He pivots when the market shifts. And he
13242
10:42:03,916 --> 10:42:08,400
invests billions when the world [music]
13243
10:42:05,680 --> 10:42:10,160
calls him a fall. He has turned a
13244
10:42:08,400 --> 10:42:12,800
semiconductor company into a
13245
10:42:10,160 --> 10:42:15,916
geopolitical superpower, a software
13246
10:42:12,800 --> 10:42:18,240
fortress, and the primary architect of a
13247
10:42:15,916 --> 10:42:19,916
new form of life.
13248
10:42:18,240 --> 10:42:22,080
Critics ask if Nvidia [music] is a
13249
10:42:19,916 --> 10:42:24,400
bubble waiting to burst, or if the
13250
10:42:22,080 --> 10:42:26,880
scaling laws of AI will eventually hit a
13251
10:42:24,400 --> 10:42:28,480
dead end. But Jensen doesn't [music]
13252
10:42:26,880 --> 10:42:31,276
operate on the timeline of a stock
13253
10:42:28,480 --> 10:42:34,080
market cycle. He operates on the
13254
10:42:31,276 --> 10:42:36,640
timeline of human evolution.
13255
10:42:34,080 --> 10:42:38,320
He isn't just [music] selling chips. He
13256
10:42:36,640 --> 10:42:41,040
is selling the marginal cost of
13257
10:42:38,320 --> 10:42:42,720
intelligence, making the most valuable
13258
10:42:41,040 --> 10:42:45,520
resource in [music] the universe so
13259
10:42:42,720 --> 10:42:49,120
abundant that it changes the very
13260
10:42:45,520 --> 10:42:50,800
definition of what is possible.
13261
10:42:49,120 --> 10:42:52,480
Jensen often says that he wakes [music]
13262
10:42:50,800 --> 10:42:54,800
up every morning with the same feeling
13263
10:42:52,480 --> 10:42:56,400
he had in 1993.
13264
10:42:54,800 --> 10:42:59,200
the feeling that the company [music] is
13265
10:42:56,400 --> 10:43:00,960
going out of business. It is this
13266
10:42:59,200 --> 10:43:03,040
productive paranoia [music] that
13267
10:43:00,960 --> 10:43:05,520
prevents the cyclical trap that claim
13268
10:43:03,040 --> 10:43:07,200
the giants of the past.
13269
10:43:05,520 --> 10:43:09,916
He doesn't want to be the king of a
13270
10:43:07,200 --> 10:43:12,560
legacy. He wants to be the architect of
13271
10:43:09,916 --> 10:43:16,000
a future that hasn't even been [music]
13272
10:43:12,560 --> 10:43:19,436
imagined yet.
13273
10:43:16,000 --> 10:43:21,916
Run, don't walk. Either you are running
13274
10:43:19,436 --> 10:43:25,596
for food or you are running from being
13275
10:43:21,916 --> 10:43:30,756
food. In the era of the digital brain,
13276
10:43:25,596 --> 10:43:30,756
the race has only just [music] begun.
13277
10:44:57,040 --> 10:45:01,916
At the edge of the world, in a country
13278
10:44:59,276 --> 10:45:04,320
with more sheep than people, one of the
13279
10:45:01,916 --> 10:45:07,596
most powerful men in Silicon Valley
13280
10:45:04,320 --> 10:45:11,680
built an escape hatch. Not a vacation
13281
10:45:07,596 --> 10:45:14,480
home, not a tax shelter, a contingency
13282
10:45:11,680 --> 10:45:18,080
plan.
13283
10:45:14,480 --> 10:45:20,320
In 2011, a billionaire quietly secured
13284
10:45:18,080 --> 10:45:23,200
citizenship in New Zealand after
13285
10:45:20,320 --> 10:45:25,756
spending just days in the country. A
13286
10:45:23,200 --> 10:45:27,436
legal backdoor, a geopolitical [music]
13287
10:45:25,756 --> 10:45:29,360
lifeboat
13288
10:45:27,436 --> 10:45:32,320
deep in the rugged terrain of New
13289
10:45:29,360 --> 10:45:36,320
Zealand's South Island, Peter Teal owns
13290
10:45:32,320 --> 10:45:37,916
a vast private estate, remote, secluded,
13291
10:45:36,320 --> 10:45:39,916
and [music] far from the centers of
13292
10:45:37,916 --> 10:45:41,732
power.
13293
10:45:39,916 --> 10:45:44,720
While most billionaires buy yachts
13294
10:45:41,732 --> 10:45:47,680
[music] or private islands feel secured
13295
10:45:44,720 --> 10:45:49,520
something more strategic, New Zealand
13296
10:45:47,680 --> 10:45:51,916
citizenship [music]
13297
10:45:49,520 --> 10:45:55,120
and a vast estate in one of the most
13298
10:45:51,916 --> 10:45:56,480
remote democracies on Earth. The
13299
10:45:55,120 --> 10:45:59,520
purchase price for [music] this
13300
10:45:56,480 --> 10:46:02,960
geopolitical insurance policy.
13301
10:45:59,520 --> 10:46:05,680
In 2011, Theel obtained New Zealand
13302
10:46:02,960 --> 10:46:07,928
citizenship after spending just 12 days
13303
10:46:05,680 --> 10:46:09,040
in the country over the previous 2
13304
10:46:07,928 --> 10:46:11,436
[music] years.
13305
10:46:09,040 --> 10:46:14,756
a process that normally requires years
13306
10:46:11,436 --> 10:46:14,756
of residency.
13307
10:46:14,880 --> 10:46:20,080
The investment that secured this [music]
13308
10:46:16,720 --> 10:46:22,240
exceptional pathway, approximately $7
13309
10:46:20,080 --> 10:46:25,120
million in [music] local assets and
13310
10:46:22,240 --> 10:46:28,320
business investments.
13311
10:46:25,120 --> 10:46:32,080
The centerpiece, a 477
13312
10:46:28,320 --> 10:46:36,400
acre estate near Lake Wanaka, purchased
13313
10:46:32,080 --> 10:46:38,880
for 13.5 million New Zealand, about $10
13314
10:46:36,400 --> 10:46:41,276
million.
13315
10:46:38,880 --> 10:46:43,360
When New Zealand media exposed the deal
13316
10:46:41,276 --> 10:46:45,916
in 2017, [music]
13317
10:46:43,360 --> 10:46:47,596
it sparked a national scandal.
13318
10:46:45,916 --> 10:46:49,200
>> Hi, Benedict. Nice to talk to you again.
13319
10:46:47,596 --> 10:46:51,120
So, when we last spoke, you told us that
13320
10:46:49,200 --> 10:46:53,200
Peter Teal was granted citizenship after
13321
10:46:51,120 --> 10:46:56,880
having only visited New Zealand [music]
13322
10:46:53,200 --> 10:46:59,120
four times for an unknown number of days
13323
10:46:56,880 --> 10:47:01,120
because the documents had that
13324
10:46:59,120 --> 10:47:03,436
information redacted. Right.
13325
10:47:01,120 --> 10:47:06,240
>> Politicians called it citizenship for
13326
10:47:03,436 --> 10:47:08,240
sale. Opposition leaders demanded
13327
10:47:06,240 --> 10:47:10,480
investigations,
13328
10:47:08,240 --> 10:47:13,680
but Theel had already achieved his
13329
10:47:10,480 --> 10:47:15,436
objective, a legal escape hatch in the
13330
10:47:13,680 --> 10:47:17,120
world's most politically stable
13331
10:47:15,436 --> 10:47:20,000
democracy,
13332
10:47:17,120 --> 10:47:23,756
a geopolitical insurance policy that
13333
10:47:20,000 --> 10:47:25,876
money [music] can buy.
13334
10:47:23,756 --> 10:47:28,000
Why would a man who helped build the
13335
10:47:25,876 --> 10:47:31,040
[music] digital future prepare for the
13336
10:47:28,000 --> 10:47:34,160
collapse of the physical one? What does
13337
10:47:31,040 --> 10:47:38,000
he see [music] that others don't? Yes,
13338
10:47:34,160 --> 10:47:40,400
it's the uh 1 Thessalonians 5:3, the uh
13339
10:47:38,000 --> 10:47:43,916
the the slogan of the Antichrist is
13340
10:47:40,400 --> 10:47:45,916
peace and safety. And so, which is
13341
10:47:43,916 --> 10:47:47,756
nothing wrong with peace and safety, but
13342
10:47:45,916 --> 10:47:49,840
uh you have to sort of imagine that it
13343
10:47:47,756 --> 10:47:51,916
resonates very differently in a world
13344
10:47:49,840 --> 10:47:53,200
where the stakes are so absolute, where
13345
10:47:51,916 --> 10:47:56,240
the stakes are so extreme, [music] where
13346
10:47:53,200 --> 10:47:58,160
the you know the alternative to peace
13347
10:47:56,240 --> 10:48:00,480
and safety is, [music]
13348
10:47:58,160 --> 10:48:02,320
you know, Armageddon and the destruction
13349
10:48:00,480 --> 10:48:04,720
of all things.
13350
10:48:02,320 --> 10:48:08,160
He is one of the most polarizing figures
13351
10:48:04,720 --> 10:48:11,120
in Silicon Valley. To some, a visionary
13352
10:48:08,160 --> 10:48:13,840
genius who saw the future early. To
13353
10:48:11,120 --> 10:48:15,436
others, the shadow financier of
13354
10:48:13,840 --> 10:48:18,880
movements and candidates [music] who
13355
10:48:15,436 --> 10:48:22,800
challenge liberal democratic norms.
13356
10:48:18,880 --> 10:48:25,276
This is not fear. This is strategy.
13357
10:48:22,800 --> 10:48:28,960
For decades, Peter Theel has made the
13358
10:48:25,276 --> 10:48:32,000
same bet over and over again. Bet
13359
10:48:28,960 --> 10:48:36,640
against consensus. better against the
13360
10:48:32,000 --> 10:48:39,200
crowd, bet against the system itself.
13361
10:48:36,640 --> 10:48:41,756
To understand why he built a fortress at
13362
10:48:39,200 --> 10:48:43,824
the end of the earth, we have to go back
13363
10:48:41,756 --> 10:48:45,120
to a childhood of constant displacement.
13364
10:48:43,824 --> 10:48:47,436
[music]
13365
10:48:45,120 --> 10:48:49,596
To a chessboard where consensus meant
13366
10:48:47,436 --> 10:48:52,320
nothing, to a company that [music] tried
13367
10:48:49,596 --> 10:48:56,200
to replace money and another that
13368
10:48:52,320 --> 10:48:56,200
learned to see everything.
13369
10:48:56,400 --> 10:49:00,960
But the estate is [music] more than a
13370
10:48:58,400 --> 10:49:04,960
luxury retreat. It is a fortress
13371
10:49:00,960 --> 10:49:07,596
designed for civilizational uncertainty.
13372
10:49:04,960 --> 10:49:10,240
Off-grid power systems, advanced
13373
10:49:07,596 --> 10:49:13,120
security infrastructure, multiple
13374
10:49:10,240 --> 10:49:15,520
evacuation routes through the mountains.
13375
10:49:13,120 --> 10:49:17,436
Not built for comfort, built for
13376
10:49:15,520 --> 10:49:19,192
continuity.
13377
10:49:17,436 --> 10:49:21,680
While the world debates progress,
13378
10:49:19,192 --> 10:49:23,756
[music] Peter Theel is preparing for a
13379
10:49:21,680 --> 10:49:26,480
different possibility.
13380
10:49:23,756 --> 10:49:29,960
Not how to build the future, how to
13381
10:49:26,480 --> 10:49:29,960
survive it.
13382
10:49:31,360 --> 10:49:38,000
The architect of dissident
13383
10:49:34,960 --> 10:49:42,480
total estimated value of the contingency
13384
10:49:38,000 --> 10:49:45,840
infrastructure 20 to $30 million.
13385
10:49:42,480 --> 10:49:48,080
Not for lifestyle, not for prestige, but
13386
10:49:45,840 --> 10:49:50,400
for the day the system he helped build
13387
10:49:48,080 --> 10:49:52,480
no longer holds.
13388
10:49:50,400 --> 10:49:55,276
He didn't build this because he panics
13389
10:49:52,480 --> 10:49:57,916
easily. He built it because he has
13390
10:49:55,276 --> 10:50:00,456
always believed that the crowd is wrong
13391
10:49:57,916 --> 10:50:03,276
and the future belongs to those willing
13392
10:50:00,456 --> 10:50:06,400
[music] to stand apart from it. Every
13393
10:50:03,276 --> 10:50:08,640
fortress begins as an idea and Peter
13394
10:50:06,400 --> 10:50:13,400
Theel has been building intellectual
13395
10:50:08,640 --> 10:50:13,400
fortresses since he was a child.
13396
10:50:17,360 --> 10:50:22,640
Before he was a billionaire, before he
13397
10:50:19,840 --> 10:50:24,160
funded political outsiders, before he
13398
10:50:22,640 --> 10:50:27,200
built machines that could see
13399
10:50:24,160 --> 10:50:29,120
everything, he was a boy who never
13400
10:50:27,200 --> 10:50:31,840
stayed in one place long enough to
13401
10:50:29,120 --> 10:50:33,840
believe the world made sense.
13402
10:50:31,840 --> 10:50:37,276
So, he searched for a world where the
13403
10:50:33,840 --> 10:50:39,120
rules didn't change. He found it on a
13404
10:50:37,276 --> 10:50:41,520
chess board.
13405
10:50:39,120 --> 10:50:43,520
To understand Peter Theel, you must
13406
10:50:41,520 --> 10:50:46,160
understand what it means to be a
13407
10:50:43,520 --> 10:50:48,960
permanent [music] outsider.
13408
10:50:46,160 --> 10:50:51,360
Born in Frankfurt, West Germany, Peter
13409
10:50:48,960 --> 10:50:54,960
Theel spent part of his early childhood
13410
10:50:51,360 --> 10:50:57,276
in southwest Africa, now Namibia, before
13411
10:50:54,960 --> 10:51:00,640
growing up mainly in the United States
13412
10:50:57,276 --> 10:51:02,960
between Ohio and California.
13413
10:51:00,640 --> 10:51:06,240
Before he was a teenager, he had already
13414
10:51:02,960 --> 10:51:08,560
experienced life on multiple continents,
13415
10:51:06,240 --> 10:51:10,560
never staying long enough to feel fully
13416
10:51:08,560 --> 10:51:13,276
at home.
13417
10:51:10,560 --> 10:51:15,916
He didn't have a hometown. He didn't
13418
10:51:13,276 --> 10:51:19,120
have a tribe. [music] He only had his
13419
10:51:15,916 --> 10:51:21,360
own mind. And in that isolation, he
13420
10:51:19,120 --> 10:51:22,880
found a language that didn't require a
13421
10:51:21,360 --> 10:51:25,880
passport.
13422
10:51:22,880 --> 10:51:25,880
Chess.
13423
10:51:26,400 --> 10:51:29,840
For a child who changed continents
13424
10:51:28,560 --> 10:51:31,840
before he [music] could even make
13425
10:51:29,840 --> 10:51:35,840
friends, the outside world was
13426
10:51:31,840 --> 10:51:38,160
unpredictable noise. But the board, the
13427
10:51:35,840 --> 10:51:42,240
board was the only place where the rules
13428
10:51:38,160 --> 10:51:45,040
didn't change depending on the country.
13429
10:51:42,240 --> 10:51:47,436
His
13430
10:51:45,040 --> 10:51:49,840
father, an engineer trained in a culture
13431
10:51:47,436 --> 10:51:52,240
of precision and systems thinking,
13432
10:51:49,840 --> 10:51:55,680
passed on a belief that reality could be
13433
10:51:52,240 --> 10:51:58,240
understood and optimized.
13434
10:51:55,680 --> 10:52:01,276
While other children sought to fit in,
13435
10:51:58,240 --> 10:52:04,080
Peter sought the edge. He learned that
13436
10:52:01,276 --> 10:52:05,756
the consensus of the crowd is usually a
13437
10:52:04,080 --> 10:52:08,320
distraction.
13438
10:52:05,756 --> 10:52:10,960
If everyone is running toward the ball,
13439
10:52:08,320 --> 10:52:12,720
you run toward where the ball is going
13440
10:52:10,960 --> 10:52:14,880
to be.
13441
10:52:12,720 --> 10:52:16,640
Chess is the ultimate antidote to
13442
10:52:14,880 --> 10:52:18,640
consensus.
13443
10:52:16,640 --> 10:52:21,360
In a crowd, you can hide behind a
13444
10:52:18,640 --> 10:52:22,480
popular opinion. In chess, you are
13445
10:52:21,360 --> 10:52:25,040
either right [music]
13446
10:52:22,480 --> 10:52:27,276
or you are dead. There is no middle
13447
10:52:25,040 --> 10:52:29,360
ground. There is no social construction
13448
10:52:27,276 --> 10:52:31,360
of the board.
13449
10:52:29,360 --> 10:52:34,000
He became a serious tournament chess
13450
10:52:31,360 --> 10:52:36,800
player drawn to a world where rules were
13451
10:52:34,000 --> 10:52:40,560
fixed, outcomes were earned, and
13452
10:52:36,800 --> 10:52:44,880
consensus meant [music] nothing.
13453
10:52:40,560 --> 10:52:47,200
Mid1 1980s Stanford University.
13454
10:52:44,880 --> 10:52:49,520
To the world this was the peak of
13455
10:52:47,200 --> 10:52:53,756
American meritocracy.
13456
10:52:49,520 --> 10:52:55,840
To Theel it was a factory of conformity.
13457
10:52:53,756 --> 10:52:58,240
While his classmates were debating how
13458
10:52:55,840 --> 10:53:00,480
to change the world through activism,
13459
10:52:58,240 --> 10:53:03,120
Theel was wondering why they all sounded
13460
10:53:00,480 --> 10:53:05,200
exactly the same. He saw the
13461
10:53:03,120 --> 10:53:07,360
multiculturalism movement not as
13462
10:53:05,200 --> 10:53:09,520
progress but as a new form of
13463
10:53:07,360 --> 10:53:12,160
fundamentalism.
13464
10:53:09,520 --> 10:53:15,200
Stanford in the late 1980s was ground
13465
10:53:12,160 --> 10:53:18,000
zero for America's culture wars, battles
13466
10:53:15,200 --> 10:53:21,040
over multiculturalism, speech, and the
13467
10:53:18,000 --> 10:53:23,360
purpose of higher education.
13468
10:53:21,040 --> 10:53:26,720
Field believed the university was
13469
10:53:23,360 --> 10:53:28,480
drifting toward ideological conformity,
13470
10:53:26,720 --> 10:53:31,916
that certain views were becoming
13471
10:53:28,480 --> 10:53:34,560
socially, if not formally, offlimits.
13472
10:53:31,916 --> 10:53:37,916
Here, his investment methodology was
13473
10:53:34,560 --> 10:53:41,840
born. Identify what the crowd considers
13474
10:53:37,916 --> 10:53:45,276
sacred and question it.
13475
10:53:41,840 --> 10:53:48,240
If everyone says identity diversity is
13476
10:53:45,276 --> 10:53:51,200
the most important thing, you argue that
13477
10:53:48,240 --> 10:53:53,276
intellectual diversity is the only thing
13478
10:53:51,200 --> 10:53:55,520
that matters.
13479
10:53:53,276 --> 10:53:58,720
He wasn't looking for friends. He was
13480
10:53:55,520 --> 10:54:01,596
looking to recruit others who like him
13481
10:53:58,720 --> 10:54:04,720
did not fear being hated.
13482
10:54:01,596 --> 10:54:07,276
He founded the Stanford Review.
13483
10:54:04,720 --> 10:54:09,360
The paper quickly became one of the most
13484
10:54:07,276 --> 10:54:10,560
controversial publications on campus,
13485
10:54:09,360 --> 10:54:13,360
[music]
13486
10:54:10,560 --> 10:54:17,200
attacking what field saw as intellectual
13487
10:54:13,360 --> 10:54:19,360
monoculture and political group think.
13488
10:54:17,200 --> 10:54:21,756
He saw that the smartest people in the
13489
10:54:19,360 --> 10:54:24,960
country were all competing for the same
13490
10:54:21,756 --> 10:54:26,720
narrow prizes, thinking the same narrow
13491
10:54:24,960 --> 10:54:28,880
thoughts.
13492
10:54:26,720 --> 10:54:32,480
He did what every top student [music]
13493
10:54:28,880 --> 10:54:35,276
does. He followed the track. After
13494
10:54:32,480 --> 10:54:38,160
Stanford Law, he secured a prestigious
13495
10:54:35,276 --> 10:54:40,148
federal appalate clerkship, the kind of
13496
10:54:38,160 --> 10:54:42,320
credential that opens every elite
13497
10:54:40,148 --> 10:54:44,560
[music] door in America.
13498
10:54:42,320 --> 10:54:47,040
After his clerkship, he joined Sullivan
13499
10:54:44,560 --> 10:54:48,880
and Cromwell in New York, one of the
13500
10:54:47,040 --> 10:54:51,680
most elite law [music] firms in the
13501
10:54:48,880 --> 10:54:54,480
world. On paper, he had reached the
13502
10:54:51,680 --> 10:54:57,680
summit. Wall Street was his great
13503
10:54:54,480 --> 10:54:59,916
negative epiphany.
13504
10:54:57,680 --> 10:55:02,080
But from his perspective, the brightest
13505
10:54:59,916 --> 10:55:04,160
graduates in America were locked in
13506
10:55:02,080 --> 10:55:07,116
brutal competition for careers they
13507
10:55:04,160 --> 10:55:09,520
didn't even seem to want.
13508
10:55:07,116 --> 10:55:12,160
It looked like Renee Gerard's theory
13509
10:55:09,520 --> 10:55:14,560
made flesh, a system where everyone
13510
10:55:12,160 --> 10:55:17,680
desired the same prize simply because
13511
10:55:14,560 --> 10:55:20,480
everyone else did. Wall Street looked to
13512
10:55:17,680 --> 10:55:23,520
Theo like a laboratory of mimemetic
13513
10:55:20,480 --> 10:55:26,080
rivalry. He realized that if he won that
13514
10:55:23,520 --> 10:55:29,360
race, his prize would be becoming the
13515
10:55:26,080 --> 10:55:32,640
man in the office next door. A copy of a
13516
10:55:29,360 --> 10:55:35,436
copy. The day he lost the opportunity to
13517
10:55:32,640 --> 10:55:38,960
clerk for the US Supreme Court wasn't a
13518
10:55:35,436 --> 10:55:42,240
defeat. It was his liberation.
13519
10:55:38,960 --> 10:55:44,880
He lasted less than a year. But Theo's
13520
10:55:42,240 --> 10:55:47,680
first venture after leaving law was a
13521
10:55:44,880 --> 10:55:49,596
humbling lesson in failure. A lesson
13522
10:55:47,680 --> 10:55:52,480
that would shape everything that came
13523
10:55:49,596 --> 10:55:55,756
after.
13524
10:55:52,480 --> 10:55:58,148
In 1996, he launched Theel Capital
13525
10:55:55,756 --> 10:55:58,148
Management, [music]
13526
10:55:58,480 --> 10:56:04,640
a hedge fund focused on currency trading
13527
10:56:01,436 --> 10:56:07,436
and macroeconomic derivatives.
13528
10:56:04,640 --> 10:56:09,436
The strategy was to make big directional
13529
10:56:07,436 --> 10:56:11,916
bets on [music] interest rates,
13530
10:56:09,436 --> 10:56:15,116
inflation expectations, and foreign
13531
10:56:11,916 --> 10:56:18,960
exchange movements. Initial capital
13532
10:56:15,116 --> 10:56:21,040
raised $1 million mostly from Stanford
13533
10:56:18,960 --> 10:56:25,800
connections who believed in the chess
13534
10:56:21,040 --> 10:56:25,800
prodigy turned lawyer turned financia.
13535
10:56:26,640 --> 10:56:32,000
The result was spectacular failure.
13536
10:56:29,756 --> 10:56:34,772
Within the first year, the fund had lost
13537
10:56:32,000 --> 10:56:37,596
significant capital. Industry estimates
13538
10:56:34,772 --> 10:56:40,880
[music] suggest losses between 30 and
13539
10:56:37,596 --> 10:56:44,000
40% of the initial investment pool.
13540
10:56:40,880 --> 10:56:47,200
Investors fled. Some demanded their
13541
10:56:44,000 --> 10:56:49,596
remaining money back immediately.
13542
10:56:47,200 --> 10:56:51,436
The reputation among finance
13543
10:56:49,596 --> 10:56:53,040
professionals, the people he [music] had
13544
10:56:51,436 --> 10:56:56,720
walked away from at Sullivan and
13545
10:56:53,040 --> 10:57:00,000
Cromwell, took a serious hit.
13546
10:56:56,720 --> 10:57:03,276
He was no longer the Stanford genius. He
13547
10:57:00,000 --> 10:57:05,756
was just another failed trader.
13548
10:57:03,276 --> 10:57:08,240
But this failure taught him the most
13549
10:57:05,756 --> 10:57:11,276
important lesson of his career.
13550
10:57:08,240 --> 10:57:13,680
Competition is for losers.
13551
10:57:11,276 --> 10:57:16,400
Do not compete in crowded markets where
13552
10:57:13,680 --> 10:57:18,080
everyone is making the same trades with
13553
10:57:16,400 --> 10:57:20,080
the same information [music] and the
13554
10:57:18,080 --> 10:57:22,480
same tools.
13555
10:57:20,080 --> 10:57:25,680
Wall Street was full of extremely smart
13556
10:57:22,480 --> 10:57:28,080
people doing the same macro trades,
13557
10:57:25,680 --> 10:57:31,200
reading the same economic reports,
13558
10:57:28,080 --> 10:57:33,596
betting on the same currency movements.
13559
10:57:31,200 --> 10:57:35,436
It was a zero someum game played by
13560
10:57:33,596 --> 10:57:38,160
thousands of nearly identical [music]
13561
10:57:35,436 --> 10:57:40,320
players.
13562
10:57:38,160 --> 10:57:43,116
He needed to find a space where the
13563
10:57:40,320 --> 10:57:45,436
rules [music] were still being written,
13564
10:57:43,116 --> 10:57:48,800
where being first mattered more than
13565
10:57:45,436 --> 10:57:51,040
being best, where a monopoly position
13566
10:57:48,800 --> 10:57:53,360
was still available.
13567
10:57:51,040 --> 10:57:55,756
He needed technology.
13568
10:57:53,360 --> 10:57:59,520
And from the ashes of the capital
13569
10:57:55,756 --> 10:58:02,080
management, a new philosophy was born.
13570
10:57:59,520 --> 10:58:04,400
If you want to create lasting value, you
13571
10:58:02,080 --> 10:58:07,840
have to build a monopoly.
13572
10:58:04,400 --> 10:58:11,960
This became his investing mantra and it
13573
10:58:07,840 --> 10:58:11,960
would make him billions.
13574
10:58:13,520 --> 10:58:18,480
Theel walked away from the firm and went
13575
10:58:15,596 --> 10:58:21,360
back to California not to start a tech
13576
10:58:18,480 --> 10:58:24,960
empire but to try trading then to launch
13577
10:58:21,360 --> 10:58:27,200
a hedge fund. It failed. The system he
13578
10:58:24,960 --> 10:58:31,116
had rejected did not welcome him back as
13579
10:58:27,200 --> 10:58:33,116
a prodigy. It treated him like a nobody.
13580
10:58:31,116 --> 10:58:37,040
That failure would become the last
13581
10:58:33,116 --> 10:58:39,436
lesson before his real beginning. But he
13582
10:58:37,040 --> 10:58:42,080
learned something. If you play the
13583
10:58:39,436 --> 10:58:44,080
system game as everyone else, you've
13584
10:58:42,080 --> 10:58:46,080
already lost.
13585
10:58:44,080 --> 10:58:51,720
The chess master was done with the
13586
10:58:46,080 --> 10:58:51,720
board. He was ready to build his own.
13587
10:58:56,720 --> 10:59:00,720
So this is an ATM. What we're going to
13588
10:58:58,720 --> 10:59:02,560
do is transform the traditional banking
13589
10:59:00,720 --> 10:59:04,112
industry.
13590
10:59:02,560 --> 10:59:06,000
>> I do not fit the picture of a banker.
13591
10:59:04,112 --> 10:59:07,680
[music]
13592
10:59:06,000 --> 10:59:09,756
>> X.com. This is Julie.
13593
10:59:07,680 --> 10:59:12,320
>> Raising $50 million is a matter of
13594
10:59:09,756 --> 10:59:14,560
making a series of phone calls and the
13595
10:59:12,320 --> 10:59:15,916
money is there.
13596
10:59:14,560 --> 10:59:18,800
>> I've sunk the [music] great majority of
13597
10:59:15,916 --> 10:59:20,400
of my net worth into X.com, which is the
13598
10:59:18,800 --> 10:59:21,840
new banking and mutual [music] funds
13599
10:59:20,400 --> 10:59:25,680
company on the internet that I've
13600
10:59:21,840 --> 10:59:28,480
started. December 1998,
13601
10:59:25,680 --> 10:59:31,756
Peter Theel co-founds a company called
13602
10:59:28,480 --> 10:59:34,960
Conffinity with Max Levchin, a brilliant
13603
10:59:31,756 --> 10:59:38,480
Ukrainianborn programmer, and Luke Nosk,
13604
10:59:34,960 --> 10:59:41,680
a fellow Stanford review illuminous.
13605
10:59:38,480 --> 10:59:43,680
Initial funding, $300,000 scraped
13606
10:59:41,680 --> 10:59:45,840
together from friends, family, and
13607
10:59:43,680 --> 10:59:47,916
fellow libertarian true believers from
13608
10:59:45,840 --> 10:59:50,320
the Stamford [music] days.
13609
10:59:47,916 --> 10:59:54,240
The original product idea, digital
13610
10:59:50,320 --> 10:59:56,640
wallets on Palm Pilot handheld devices.
13611
10:59:54,240 --> 10:59:58,160
The vision was that people would beam
13612
10:59:56,640 --> 11:00:01,840
money to each other using [music]
13613
10:59:58,160 --> 11:00:04,560
infrared ports on the Palm Pilots
13614
11:00:01,840 --> 11:00:06,080
in coffee shops, at restaurants,
13615
11:00:04,560 --> 11:00:10,436
persontoerson,
13616
11:00:06,080 --> 11:00:10,436
bypassing banks entirely.
13617
11:00:10,720 --> 11:00:18,720
Total users after 6 months of operation,
13618
11:00:14,320 --> 11:00:20,960
12 people. literally 12.
13619
11:00:18,720 --> 11:00:23,680
Most of them were employees and their
13620
11:00:20,960 --> 11:00:27,276
friends testing the system. It was a
13621
11:00:23,680 --> 11:00:30,240
complete and utter flop. The technology
13622
11:00:27,276 --> 11:00:35,200
worked, but nobody cared. Nobody wanted
13623
11:00:30,240 --> 11:00:38,560
it. March 2000, Confinity pivots hard
13624
11:00:35,200 --> 11:00:40,880
and launches a new feature, email-based
13625
11:00:38,560 --> 11:00:44,080
money transfers.
13626
11:00:40,880 --> 11:00:46,080
You send money to any email address. The
13627
11:00:44,080 --> 11:00:48,080
recipient gets a [music] notification,
13628
11:00:46,080 --> 11:00:51,596
creates an account, and the money is
13629
11:00:48,080 --> 11:00:55,436
there. Simple, instant, revolutionary.
13630
11:00:51,596 --> 11:00:58,320
The name of this new service, PayPal.
13631
11:00:55,436 --> 11:01:00,880
Within weeks, user growth exploded at a
13632
11:00:58,320 --> 11:01:02,560
rate nobody had ever seen in financial
13633
11:01:00,880 --> 11:01:07,116
services.
13634
11:01:02,560 --> 11:01:12,640
Month one, 10,000 users. Month three,
13635
11:01:07,116 --> 11:01:17,136
100,000 users. Month 6, 1 million users.
13636
11:01:12,640 --> 11:01:17,136
Month 12, 5 million users. [music]
13637
11:01:17,596 --> 11:01:22,240
This was the fastest user adoption rate
13638
11:01:20,000 --> 11:01:25,200
in the entire history of financial
13639
11:01:22,240 --> 11:01:27,680
services. Faster than credit cards,
13640
11:01:25,200 --> 11:01:29,680
faster than checking accounts, faster
13641
11:01:27,680 --> 11:01:32,240
than anything.
13642
11:01:29,680 --> 11:01:35,276
But here is what most people do not know
13643
11:01:32,240 --> 11:01:38,640
about PayPal's growth. Here is the
13644
11:01:35,276 --> 11:01:41,756
secret that the mythology leaves out.
13645
11:01:38,640 --> 11:01:46,160
PayPal's explosive user acquisition was
13646
11:01:41,756 --> 11:01:48,524
not organic. It was not word of mouth.
13647
11:01:46,160 --> 11:01:50,544
It was not viral in the natural sense.
13648
11:01:48,524 --> 11:01:50,544
[music]
13649
11:01:51,040 --> 11:01:57,276
They literally bought their users with
13650
11:01:53,360 --> 11:02:00,080
cash. The strategy was elegantly simple
13651
11:01:57,276 --> 11:02:03,200
and brutally expensive.
13652
11:02:00,080 --> 11:02:06,320
Sign up for a PayPal account, get $10
13653
11:02:03,200 --> 11:02:09,916
deposited instantly. Refer a friend who
13654
11:02:06,320 --> 11:02:14,080
signs up gets another $10. Your friend
13655
11:02:09,916 --> 11:02:17,344
also gets $10. Cost per acquisition 20
13656
11:02:14,080 --> 11:02:21,040
to $40 per user depending on how many
13657
11:02:17,344 --> 11:02:24,320
[music] referrals each user generated.
13658
11:02:21,040 --> 11:02:27,200
Monthly cash burn rate at peak growth 10
13659
11:02:24,320 --> 11:02:30,480
to 12 million
13660
11:02:27,200 --> 11:02:32,640
just vanishing into user acquisition.
13661
11:02:30,480 --> 11:02:36,400
By late 2000, PayPal [music] was
13662
11:02:32,640 --> 11:02:38,300
spending 60 to 70 million annually just
13663
11:02:36,400 --> 11:02:40,080
to buy users with cash incentives.
13664
11:02:38,300 --> 11:02:42,160
[music]
13665
11:02:40,080 --> 11:02:44,800
They were hemorrhaging money at a
13666
11:02:42,160 --> 11:02:45,680
terrifying rate. Investors were
13667
11:02:44,800 --> 11:02:50,080
panicking. [music]
13668
11:02:45,680 --> 11:02:52,560
Board members were demanding answers.
13669
11:02:50,080 --> 11:02:56,160
How long can you sustain spending $10
13670
11:02:52,560 --> 11:02:59,200
million a month buying users? [music]
13671
11:02:56,160 --> 11:03:02,240
But Theel had done the mathematics. He
13672
11:02:59,200 --> 11:03:05,200
had run the numbers obsessively.
13673
11:03:02,240 --> 11:03:08,240
Each acquired user was worth $100 to
13674
11:03:05,200 --> 11:03:11,680
$200 in [music] lifetime transaction fee
13675
11:03:08,240 --> 11:03:14,984
revenue through the PayPal network. They
13676
11:03:11,680 --> 11:03:15,916
were buying $100 bills for $20 bills.
13677
11:03:14,984 --> 11:03:18,960
[music]
13678
11:03:15,916 --> 11:03:21,116
It was either genius or insanity
13679
11:03:18,960 --> 11:03:24,800
depending on whether the math actually
13680
11:03:21,116 --> 11:03:27,200
worked. The believed it would work. He
13681
11:03:24,800 --> 11:03:30,640
bet everything on it. [music] But there
13682
11:03:27,200 --> 11:03:34,080
was a problem. a major problem. Another
13683
11:03:30,640 --> 11:03:37,680
company was doing the exact same thing.
13684
11:03:34,080 --> 11:03:41,116
X.com, a finance company founded by Elon
13685
11:03:37,680 --> 11:03:43,116
Musk with money from his Zip 2 exit and
13686
11:03:41,116 --> 11:03:47,436
a vision for online banking that was
13687
11:03:43,116 --> 11:03:51,040
nearly identical [music] to PayPal's.
13688
11:03:47,436 --> 11:03:53,628
Two companies, same idea, same market,
13689
11:03:51,040 --> 11:03:57,040
both burning massive amounts of cash at
13690
11:03:53,628 --> 11:03:59,200
[music] completely unsustainable rates.
13691
11:03:57,040 --> 11:04:03,200
Total funding raised between both
13692
11:03:59,200 --> 11:04:06,560
companies over $100 million.
13693
11:04:03,200 --> 11:04:08,000
Combined monthly cash burn rate over $20
13694
11:04:06,560 --> 11:04:10,400
million [music]
13695
11:04:08,000 --> 11:04:15,436
time until both companies simultaneously
13696
11:04:10,400 --> 11:04:18,240
ran out of money less than 6 months.
13697
11:04:15,436 --> 11:04:21,840
The merger was inevitable.
13698
11:04:18,240 --> 11:04:24,880
X.com and Confinity merged into a single
13699
11:04:21,840 --> 11:04:27,200
entity. The combined company kept the
13700
11:04:24,880 --> 11:04:30,960
PayPal name because users had already
13701
11:04:27,200 --> 11:04:33,520
adopted it. The brand had momentum. Elon
13702
11:04:30,960 --> 11:04:38,916
Musk became chief executive officer of
13703
11:04:33,520 --> 11:04:38,916
the merged company for 5 months.
13704
11:04:40,240 --> 11:04:46,480
October 2000. While Elon Musk was on his
13705
11:04:43,840 --> 11:04:49,200
honeymoon, the board of directors led by
13706
11:04:46,480 --> 11:04:52,400
Peter Theel and other Confinity founders
13707
11:04:49,200 --> 11:04:54,960
held an emergency meeting and voted Musk
13708
11:04:52,400 --> 11:04:57,680
out as CEO.
13709
11:04:54,960 --> 11:05:00,800
The official reason cited strategic
13710
11:04:57,680 --> 11:05:04,080
disagreements over technology platform.
13711
11:05:00,800 --> 11:05:07,040
Musk wanted to use Microsoft software.
13712
11:05:04,080 --> 11:05:10,640
The Confinity engineers believed in Unix
13713
11:05:07,040 --> 11:05:14,240
based systems. The actual reason Theel
13714
11:05:10,640 --> 11:05:17,840
wanted control, full control. This was
13715
11:05:14,240 --> 11:05:20,000
his company now.
13716
11:05:17,840 --> 11:05:22,720
Peter Theel became chief executive
13717
11:05:20,000 --> 11:05:25,116
officer of PayPal. Elon Musk [music]
13718
11:05:22,720 --> 11:05:29,596
remained a major shareholder, but his
13719
11:05:25,116 --> 11:05:32,480
operational control was finished.
13720
11:05:29,596 --> 11:05:34,880
The two men, both future billionaires,
13721
11:05:32,480 --> 11:05:39,084
both future power brokers, had their
13722
11:05:34,880 --> 11:05:41,680
first battle. feel one. At its core,
13723
11:05:39,084 --> 11:05:44,640
[music] PayPal ran on a simple idea that
13724
11:05:41,680 --> 11:05:47,200
turned into a powerful engine.
13725
11:05:44,640 --> 11:05:51,276
Every time money moved, PayPal took a
13726
11:05:47,200 --> 11:05:53,756
small cut, 2.9% plus 30 cents per
13727
11:05:51,276 --> 11:05:56,400
transaction. If that money crossed
13728
11:05:53,756 --> 11:05:58,880
borders, the fee climbed to between 2
13729
11:05:56,400 --> 11:06:01,040
1/2 and 4%.
13730
11:05:58,880 --> 11:06:02,960
Then there was the float. The cash
13731
11:06:01,040 --> 11:06:04,000
sitting in PayPal's accounts between
13732
11:06:02,960 --> 11:06:05,756
payments, [music]
13733
11:06:04,000 --> 11:06:09,360
quietly earning interest for the
13734
11:06:05,756 --> 11:06:11,116
company. Tiny slices repeated millions
13735
11:06:09,360 --> 11:06:14,240
of times.
13736
11:06:11,116 --> 11:06:18,000
By 2001, the numbers told the story of a
13737
11:06:14,240 --> 11:06:20,880
system coming to life. Every single day,
13738
11:06:18,000 --> 11:06:23,916
5 to8 million flowed through PayPal's
13739
11:06:20,880 --> 11:06:28,880
network. Each month, that translated
13740
11:06:23,916 --> 11:06:31,840
into 10 to$15 million in revenue.
13741
11:06:28,880 --> 11:06:34,400
But growth at this speed came at a cost.
13742
11:06:31,840 --> 11:06:37,276
Running the system, fighting fraud,
13743
11:06:34,400 --> 11:06:42,400
scaling infrastructure, acquiring users
13744
11:06:37,276 --> 11:06:44,720
was burning 20 to30 million every month.
13745
11:06:42,400 --> 11:06:47,116
The machine worked, it just wasn't
13746
11:06:44,720 --> 11:06:49,116
profitable yet.
13747
11:06:47,116 --> 11:06:51,680
Late 2000,
13748
11:06:49,116 --> 11:06:55,360
PayPal's data scientists discovered
13749
11:06:51,680 --> 11:06:57,756
something crucial. 70% of all PayPal
13750
11:06:55,360 --> 11:06:59,436
transactions were happening on eBay
13751
11:06:57,756 --> 11:07:01,680
auctions.
13752
11:06:59,436 --> 11:07:04,240
People buying and selling random items
13753
11:07:01,680 --> 11:07:07,680
on the internet's largest marketplace
13754
11:07:04,240 --> 11:07:10,000
were using PayPal to move money. The
13755
11:07:07,680 --> 11:07:13,360
strategic insight became immediately
13756
11:07:10,000 --> 11:07:17,520
clear. Make PayPal the only payment
13757
11:07:13,360 --> 11:07:19,596
method that eBay users trust completely.
13758
11:07:17,520 --> 11:07:21,520
Own that market, become [music]
13759
11:07:19,596 --> 11:07:24,160
indispensable.
13760
11:07:21,520 --> 11:07:26,480
The execution buyer protection
13761
11:07:24,160 --> 11:07:29,276
guarantees that eBay's own payment
13762
11:07:26,480 --> 11:07:31,916
system did not offer
13763
11:07:29,276 --> 11:07:35,800
instant payment transfers with no 7-day
13764
11:07:31,916 --> 11:07:35,800
check clearing period.
13765
11:07:36,240 --> 11:07:41,360
Fraud detection algorithms that were
13766
11:07:38,400 --> 11:07:44,240
better than credit card companies. Email
13767
11:07:41,360 --> 11:07:48,720
notifications for every transaction.
13768
11:07:44,240 --> 11:07:52,080
Simple, clean user interface.
13769
11:07:48,720 --> 11:07:55,840
By mid 2001, the strategy was working
13770
11:07:52,080 --> 11:07:58,560
beyond all projections. 50% of all eBay
13771
11:07:55,840 --> 11:08:02,240
auctions accepted PayPal as a payment
13772
11:07:58,560 --> 11:08:04,720
method. PayPal was processing $50
13773
11:08:02,240 --> 11:08:07,680
million daily in eBay related
13774
11:08:04,720 --> 11:08:12,880
transactions alone. And then eBay
13775
11:08:07,680 --> 11:08:14,960
noticed and eBay was not happy.
13776
11:08:12,880 --> 11:08:17,276
eBay launched their own competing
13777
11:08:14,960 --> 11:08:20,080
service called Billpoint and attempted
13778
11:08:17,276 --> 11:08:22,240
to kill PayPal through the marketplace.
13779
11:08:20,080 --> 11:08:25,276
They promoted Billoint in search
13780
11:08:22,240 --> 11:08:28,000
rankings. They penalized sellers who
13781
11:08:25,276 --> 11:08:31,116
only accepted PayPal. They made it
13782
11:08:28,000 --> 11:08:32,880
harder to display the PayPal logo. It
13783
11:08:31,116 --> 11:08:35,916
was war.
13784
11:08:32,880 --> 11:08:38,560
PayPal's response was total war.
13785
11:08:35,916 --> 11:08:41,116
Temporarily lower transaction fees to
13786
11:08:38,560 --> 11:08:43,276
undercut Bill.
13787
11:08:41,116 --> 11:08:46,480
Guarantee faster money transfers than
13788
11:08:43,276 --> 11:08:50,160
eBay could offer. Invest heavily in
13789
11:08:46,480 --> 11:08:53,200
superior $30 million deployed in 2001
13790
11:08:50,160 --> 11:08:55,756
fraud protection. Massive marketing
13791
11:08:53,200 --> 11:08:59,520
spending alone.
13792
11:08:55,756 --> 11:09:03,840
By early 2002, the war was over. PayPal
13793
11:08:59,520 --> 11:09:07,840
controlled 65% of eBay's payment market.
13794
11:09:03,840 --> 11:09:10,160
Bill point at barely 10%.
13795
11:09:07,840 --> 11:09:12,480
eBay executives looked at the numbers
13796
11:09:10,160 --> 11:09:17,840
and reached the conclusion, if you
13797
11:09:12,480 --> 11:09:22,000
cannot beat them, buy them. July 2002,
13798
11:09:17,840 --> 11:09:24,080
eBay acquires PayPal for $1.5 billion in
13799
11:09:22,000 --> 11:09:27,756
eBay stock.
13800
11:09:24,080 --> 11:09:30,240
Peter Theal owned approximately $3.7% of
13801
11:09:27,756 --> 11:09:33,840
PayPal at the time of the acquisition.
13802
11:09:30,240 --> 11:09:37,360
His equity stake was worth $55 million
13803
11:09:33,840 --> 11:09:39,840
in eBay stock. After taxes, he walked
13804
11:09:37,360 --> 11:09:43,756
away with approximately $40 million in
13805
11:09:39,840 --> 11:09:47,360
liquid wealth. At age 34, he had won his
13806
11:09:43,756 --> 11:09:49,360
first billion dollar game.
13807
11:09:47,360 --> 11:09:52,720
But the money was not the most valuable
13808
11:09:49,360 --> 11:09:56,720
thing he extracted from PayPal. The real
13809
11:09:52,720 --> 11:09:59,116
value was the network, the PayPal mafia,
13810
11:09:56,720 --> 11:10:03,040
the name they gave themselves. And it
13811
11:09:59,116 --> 11:10:05,916
was not ironic, it was descriptive. The
13812
11:10:03,040 --> 11:10:08,000
core team that Theel assembled at PayPal
13813
11:10:05,916 --> 11:10:11,200
would go on to create some of the most
13814
11:10:08,000 --> 11:10:15,200
valuable companies in human history.
13815
11:10:11,200 --> 11:10:17,200
Elon Musk, Tesla Market Cap, $650
13816
11:10:15,200 --> 11:10:22,048
billion.
13817
11:10:17,200 --> 11:10:24,480
SpaceX, estimated value, $150 billion.
13818
11:10:22,048 --> 11:10:28,000
[music] Reed Hoffman, LinkedIn, sold to
13819
11:10:24,480 --> 11:10:32,080
Microsoft for $26 billion.
13820
11:10:28,000 --> 11:10:36,880
Steve Chen, Chad Hurley, Jawed Kareem.
13821
11:10:32,080 --> 11:10:41,044
YouTube sold to Google for 1.65 billion,
13822
11:10:36,880 --> 11:10:42,000
now worth over 100 billion.
13823
11:10:41,044 --> 11:10:44,640
[music]
13824
11:10:42,000 --> 11:10:48,720
Jeremy Stoppleman and Russell Simmons,
13825
11:10:44,640 --> 11:10:51,276
Yelp, peaked at $3 billion market cap.
13826
11:10:48,720 --> 11:10:54,960
David Saxs, Yammer, sold [music] to
13827
11:10:51,276 --> 11:10:57,916
Microsoft for $1.2 billion.
13828
11:10:54,960 --> 11:11:02,160
later founded Craft Ventures. Max
13829
11:10:57,916 --> 11:11:07,276
Levchin, a firm $12 billion company.
13830
11:11:02,160 --> 11:11:10,080
Also co-founded Yelp. Keith Rabo, COO of
13831
11:11:07,276 --> 11:11:14,756
Square, partner at Founders Fund,
13832
11:11:10,080 --> 11:11:14,756
investor in dozens of unicorns.
13833
11:11:14,800 --> 11:11:21,520
Roloff Bofer, partner at Seoia Capital,
13834
11:11:18,720 --> 11:11:26,080
led investments in Instagram, YouTube,
13835
11:11:21,520 --> 11:11:29,116
Tumblr, MongoDB, Eventbrite.
13836
11:11:26,080 --> 11:11:31,040
Total value created by the PayPal mafia
13837
11:11:29,116 --> 11:11:34,560
across all their companies,
13838
11:11:31,040 --> 11:11:36,960
conservatively estimated at over $200
13839
11:11:34,560 --> 11:11:39,360
billion in combined market
13840
11:11:36,960 --> 11:11:41,520
capitalization.
13841
11:11:39,360 --> 11:11:43,360
Field's ownership stakes across this
13842
11:11:41,520 --> 11:11:46,560
extended network through direct
13843
11:11:43,360 --> 11:11:49,756
investments and fund positions estimated
13844
11:11:46,560 --> 11:11:51,756
at 2 to4 billion.
13845
11:11:49,756 --> 11:11:54,880
This was not just a company that got
13846
11:11:51,756 --> 11:11:57,756
acquired. This was the creation of the
13847
11:11:54,880 --> 11:12:01,160
most powerful business cartel in Silicon
13848
11:11:57,756 --> 11:12:01,160
Valley history.
13849
11:12:01,360 --> 11:12:06,880
But what made PayPal different was not
13850
11:12:03,916 --> 11:12:09,276
the technology. Not really. The
13851
11:12:06,880 --> 11:12:10,880
technology was impressive but not
13852
11:12:09,276 --> 11:12:12,960
miraculous.
13853
11:12:10,880 --> 11:12:15,756
What made PayPal different was the
13854
11:12:12,960 --> 11:12:17,596
culture, the religion of extreme
13855
11:12:15,756 --> 11:12:20,640
meritocracy.
13856
11:12:17,596 --> 11:12:22,560
Theo's hiring criteria were brutally
13857
11:12:20,640 --> 11:12:26,400
specific.
13858
11:12:22,560 --> 11:12:29,756
One, raw intelligence, high test scores,
13859
11:12:26,400 --> 11:12:31,680
ability to solve complex puzzles, proof
13860
11:12:29,756 --> 11:12:35,200
you could think better than everyone
13861
11:12:31,680 --> 11:12:38,240
else. Two, intensity.
13862
11:12:35,200 --> 11:12:39,680
Are you willing to work 100hour weeks?
13863
11:12:38,240 --> 11:12:41,436
Are [music] you willing to sacrifice
13864
11:12:39,680 --> 11:12:42,960
everything else in your life for the
13865
11:12:41,436 --> 11:12:46,640
mission?
13866
11:12:42,960 --> 11:12:49,436
Three, missionary zeal. Do you actually
13867
11:12:46,640 --> 11:12:52,160
believe we are changing the world or are
13868
11:12:49,436 --> 11:12:55,436
you here for a paycheck?
13869
11:12:52,160 --> 11:12:57,596
Four, loyalty to the tribe. Will you
13870
11:12:55,436 --> 11:13:00,960
protect the other members? Will you put
13871
11:12:57,596 --> 11:13:04,320
the group above yourself?
13872
11:13:00,960 --> 11:13:09,840
Average employee age at PayPal 25 years
13873
11:13:04,320 --> 11:13:12,160
old. Average work week 80 to 100 hours.
13874
11:13:09,840 --> 11:13:14,720
Office culture libertarian,
13875
11:13:12,160 --> 11:13:16,560
anti-regulation, contrarian,
13876
11:13:14,720 --> 11:13:18,640
anti-establishment.
13877
11:13:16,560 --> 11:13:21,116
They called themselves the mafia
13878
11:13:18,640 --> 11:13:24,680
specifically because loyalty mattered
13879
11:13:21,116 --> 11:13:24,680
more than credentials,
13880
11:13:25,916 --> 11:13:31,436
more than degrees, more than previous
13881
11:13:28,080 --> 11:13:34,320
experience. Theel's operating principle
13882
11:13:31,436 --> 11:13:36,640
stated explicitly and repeatedly,
13883
11:13:34,320 --> 11:13:38,320
talented people do not want to work with
13884
11:13:36,640 --> 11:13:42,160
people who [music] are less talented
13885
11:13:38,320 --> 11:13:44,480
than they are. So every new hire must be
13886
11:13:42,160 --> 11:13:47,720
more talented than the average current
13887
11:13:44,480 --> 11:13:50,560
employee. Otherwise, we are diluting the
13888
11:13:47,720 --> 11:13:53,916
[music] talent pool. This created a
13889
11:13:50,560 --> 11:13:56,892
self-reinforcing escalation, an arms
13890
11:13:53,916 --> 11:13:59,360
race of hiring. Every new person raised
13891
11:13:56,892 --> 11:14:02,880
[music] the bar. The standards became
13892
11:13:59,360 --> 11:14:06,080
higher and higher. Only the absolute
13893
11:14:02,880 --> 11:14:09,360
best could get in. And once you were in,
13894
11:14:06,080 --> 11:14:11,520
you were family. But here is what most
13895
11:14:09,360 --> 11:14:13,436
people forget about PayPal. [music]
13896
11:14:11,520 --> 11:14:16,480
Here is the original vision that got
13897
11:14:13,436 --> 11:14:18,400
erased from the mythology. PayPal was
13898
11:14:16,480 --> 11:14:21,436
supposed [music] to destroy the Federal
13899
11:14:18,400 --> 11:14:24,560
Reserve. It was supposed to undermine
13900
11:14:21,436 --> 11:14:26,960
state control of currency. That was the
13901
11:14:24,560 --> 11:14:28,400
actual mission. That was why Peter
13902
11:14:26,960 --> 11:14:32,400
Theel, the libertarian [music]
13903
11:14:28,400 --> 11:14:34,960
ideologue, cared so much.
13904
11:14:32,400 --> 11:14:37,840
The original vision laid out in Theo's
13905
11:14:34,960 --> 11:14:41,276
founding documents create a new digital
13906
11:14:37,840 --> 11:14:44,000
currency outside government control.
13907
11:14:41,276 --> 11:14:45,436
Enable true peer-to-peer transactions
13908
11:14:44,000 --> 11:14:47,040
globally [music] without state
13909
11:14:45,436 --> 11:14:48,960
intermediaries.
13910
11:14:47,040 --> 11:14:52,240
Undermine the state monopoly [music] on
13911
11:14:48,960 --> 11:14:54,800
money creation and management.
13912
11:14:52,240 --> 11:14:57,040
build the financial infrastructure for a
13913
11:14:54,800 --> 11:14:59,520
stateless society.
13914
11:14:57,040 --> 11:15:00,320
What actually happened? To become
13915
11:14:59,520 --> 11:15:02,960
mainstream, [music]
13916
11:15:00,320 --> 11:15:04,960
to actually scale, PayPal had to
13917
11:15:02,960 --> 11:15:07,276
compromise every single founding
13918
11:15:04,960 --> 11:15:10,240
principle. They had to integrate with
13919
11:15:07,276 --> 11:15:13,200
the traditional banking system, the
13920
11:15:10,240 --> 11:15:15,436
enemy. They had to comply with know your
13921
11:15:13,200 --> 11:15:16,960
customer and anti-moneyaundering
13922
11:15:15,436 --> 11:15:19,116
regulations,
13923
11:15:16,960 --> 11:15:20,960
government control.
13924
11:15:19,116 --> 11:15:23,680
They had to partner with credit card
13925
11:15:20,960 --> 11:15:26,480
companies. The old system they wanted to
13926
11:15:23,680 --> 11:15:30,000
destroy. They had to get licensed in
13927
11:15:26,480 --> 11:15:31,916
every single state. Regulatory capture.
13928
11:15:30,000 --> 11:15:34,800
They had to report suspicious
13929
11:15:31,916 --> 11:15:38,320
transactions to federal authorities.
13930
11:15:34,800 --> 11:15:41,680
Surveillance. By 2002, PayPal was
13931
11:15:38,320 --> 11:15:44,240
regulated exactly like a [music] bank.
13932
11:15:41,680 --> 11:15:46,880
Partnered with banks, dependent on banks
13933
11:15:44,240 --> 11:15:49,520
for all core functionalities. The
13934
11:15:46,880 --> 11:15:52,000
libertarian revolution had become just
13935
11:15:49,520 --> 11:15:54,320
another fintech company playing by the
13936
11:15:52,000 --> 11:15:56,640
government's rules. [music]
13937
11:15:54,320 --> 11:15:58,720
The learned the most important lesson of
13938
11:15:56,640 --> 11:16:00,240
his career from PayPal's failure to
13939
11:15:58,720 --> 11:16:03,116
achieve [music] its revolutionary
13940
11:16:00,240 --> 11:16:06,480
mission. You cannot disrupt the system
13941
11:16:03,116 --> 11:16:08,560
from inside the system. If you want to
13942
11:16:06,480 --> 11:16:10,320
change the rules, you cannot ask
13943
11:16:08,560 --> 11:16:13,276
permission from the people who wrote
13944
11:16:10,320 --> 11:16:19,000
them. This lesson would shape everything
13945
11:16:13,276 --> 11:16:19,000
he did next. Palanteer, Facebook,
13946
11:16:19,116 --> 11:16:25,200
his political investments, everything.
13947
11:16:23,200 --> 11:16:28,320
The PayPal acquisition [music] was not
13948
11:16:25,200 --> 11:16:31,116
an ending. It was a beginning, the start
13949
11:16:28,320 --> 11:16:32,800
of something much larger. The pattern
13950
11:16:31,116 --> 11:16:36,000
that emerged over the next 20 [music]
13951
11:16:32,800 --> 11:16:38,880
years. PayPal veterans leave and start
13952
11:16:36,000 --> 11:16:41,296
new companies in different sectors.
13953
11:16:38,880 --> 11:16:44,480
Theel invests early as angel investor
13954
11:16:41,296 --> 11:16:46,536
[music] or through founders fund. PayPal
13955
11:16:44,480 --> 11:16:48,960
mafia members join each other's boards
13956
11:16:46,536 --> 11:16:51,120
[music] of directors. Cross investment
13957
11:16:48,960 --> 11:16:53,756
between all their venture funds creates
13958
11:16:51,120 --> 11:16:55,916
[music] alignment. Preferential access
13959
11:16:53,756 --> 11:16:57,520
to deal flow because of network
13960
11:16:55,916 --> 11:16:58,880
relationships.
13961
11:16:57,520 --> 11:17:02,240
Shared intelligence [music] about
13962
11:16:58,880 --> 11:17:04,160
markets, technology, and opportunities.
13963
11:17:02,240 --> 11:17:07,680
Real examples of how the network
13964
11:17:04,160 --> 11:17:11,276
compounds. Reed Hoffman introduces Theel
13965
11:17:07,680 --> 11:17:15,276
to Mark Zuckerberg in 2004.
13966
11:17:11,276 --> 11:17:18,960
Theel invests $500,000 in Facebook,
13967
11:17:15,276 --> 11:17:21,200
eventually makes over $1 billion.
13968
11:17:18,960 --> 11:17:23,596
Roloff Botha [music] joins Sequoia
13969
11:17:21,200 --> 11:17:25,756
Capital and invests in multiple
13970
11:17:23,596 --> 11:17:28,400
Theelbacked companies, creating
13971
11:17:25,756 --> 11:17:30,960
reciprocal deal flows. [music]
13972
11:17:28,400 --> 11:17:33,436
David Saxs hosts high dollar fundraisers
13973
11:17:30,960 --> 11:17:38,200
for Theo's [music] political candidates,
13974
11:17:33,436 --> 11:17:38,200
mixing business and politics seamlessly.
13975
11:17:38,320 --> 11:17:44,480
Max Levchim provides seed capital for
13976
11:17:40,960 --> 11:17:46,480
Palanteer and serves as advisor lending
13977
11:17:44,480 --> 11:17:48,720
credibility.
13978
11:17:46,480 --> 11:17:49,360
This network effect multiplier is
13979
11:17:48,720 --> 11:17:53,756
precisely [music]
13980
11:17:49,360 --> 11:17:56,620
how Theel turned $55 million from PayPal
13981
11:17:53,756 --> 11:17:58,240
into over $5 billion in net worth today.
13982
11:17:56,620 --> 11:18:01,596
[music]
13983
11:17:58,240 --> 11:18:04,080
The PayPal mafia is not a cute nickname.
13984
11:18:01,596 --> 11:18:05,840
It is not a metaphor. It is the most
13985
11:18:04,080 --> 11:18:08,960
successful [music] organized business
13986
11:18:05,840 --> 11:18:11,116
cartel in Silicon Valley history.
13987
11:18:08,960 --> 11:18:13,436
A self-reinforcing [music] network of
13988
11:18:11,116 --> 11:18:15,680
wealth, power, and influence that has
13989
11:18:13,436 --> 11:18:19,276
shaped the entire technology industry
13990
11:18:15,680 --> 11:18:24,596
for two decades. And Peter Theal sits at
13991
11:18:19,276 --> 11:18:24,596
the center of it all. The Godfather.
13992
11:18:29,916 --> 11:18:35,116
After PayPal, Peter Theel was a man with
13993
11:18:32,880 --> 11:18:38,320
a billion dollars and a dangerous
13994
11:18:35,116 --> 11:18:39,680
secret. While other investors were
13995
11:18:38,320 --> 11:18:42,480
looking at spreadsheets [music] and
13996
11:18:39,680 --> 11:18:44,320
profit margins, Theel was looking at the
13997
11:18:42,480 --> 11:18:47,116
human soul through the eyes of his
13998
11:18:44,320 --> 11:18:50,400
mentor, Renee Gerard.
13999
11:18:47,116 --> 11:18:53,840
Gerard taught him a terrifying truth.
14000
11:18:50,400 --> 11:18:56,960
Human beings don't know what they want.
14001
11:18:53,840 --> 11:18:59,680
We are mimemetic creatures. We don't
14002
11:18:56,960 --> 11:19:01,520
desire things for themselves. We desire
14003
11:18:59,680 --> 11:19:04,720
them because other people [music] desire
14004
11:19:01,520 --> 11:19:07,680
them. We are copy machines disguised as
14005
11:19:04,720 --> 11:19:10,320
individuals.
14006
11:19:07,680 --> 11:19:13,040
August 2004.
14007
11:19:10,320 --> 11:19:16,320
Facebook has been online for exactly 6
14008
11:19:13,040 --> 11:19:18,800
months. It started as a Harvard dorm
14009
11:19:16,320 --> 11:19:21,756
project and has now expanded to several
14010
11:19:18,800 --> 11:19:25,040
college campuses.
14011
11:19:21,756 --> 11:19:27,200
The metrics that Zuckerberg shows Theel
14012
11:19:25,040 --> 11:19:28,880
total registered users [music]
14013
11:19:27,200 --> 11:19:32,240
200,000
14014
11:19:28,880 --> 11:19:35,840
almost entirely college students
14015
11:19:32,240 --> 11:19:37,436
daily active user [music] rate 70 to 80%
14016
11:19:35,840 --> 11:19:41,424
engagement
14017
11:19:37,436 --> 11:19:42,240
unprecedented in web services revenue $0
14018
11:19:41,424 --> 11:19:45,116
[music]
14019
11:19:42,240 --> 11:19:49,200
no business model yet valuation
14020
11:19:45,116 --> 11:19:51,040
Zuckerberg is asking for $5 million
14021
11:19:49,200 --> 11:19:53,596
every single professional venture
14022
11:19:51,040 --> 11:19:56,400
capitalist in Silicon Valley has passed
14023
11:19:53,596 --> 11:19:59,520
on Facebook. Every major firm has looked
14024
11:19:56,400 --> 11:20:02,880
into it and said no. The reasons they
14025
11:19:59,520 --> 11:20:06,560
gave it is just a college directory.
14026
11:20:02,880 --> 11:20:07,520
Limited market. Fster has already 5
14027
11:20:06,560 --> 11:20:10,560
million users [music]
14028
11:20:07,520 --> 11:20:13,116
and is the leader in social networking.
14029
11:20:10,560 --> 11:20:15,596
MySpace is dominant with 8 million users
14030
11:20:13,116 --> 11:20:17,840
and growing [music] fast. There is no
14031
11:20:15,596 --> 11:20:19,116
obvious business model or revenue
14032
11:20:17,840 --> 11:20:21,680
stream. [music]
14033
11:20:19,116 --> 11:20:26,560
Mark Zuckerberg is too young, too
14034
11:20:21,680 --> 11:20:28,880
inexperienced, too risky as a founder.
14035
11:20:26,560 --> 11:20:31,436
Peter Theel saw something completely
14036
11:20:28,880 --> 11:20:33,596
different, something that had nothing to
14037
11:20:31,436 --> 11:20:36,000
do with technology.
14038
11:20:33,596 --> 11:20:39,040
Theel had spent years studying Renee
14039
11:20:36,000 --> 11:20:40,560
Gerard's mimemetic theory, the
14040
11:20:39,040 --> 11:20:42,640
philosophical framework that [music]
14041
11:20:40,560 --> 11:20:46,560
would shape his entire investment
14042
11:20:42,640 --> 11:20:49,680
approach, the core idea, humans do not
14043
11:20:46,560 --> 11:20:52,960
have original desires. We desire what
14044
11:20:49,680 --> 11:20:54,800
other people desire. We learn what to
14045
11:20:52,960 --> 11:20:59,360
want by watching other people [music]
14046
11:20:54,800 --> 11:21:03,436
want. Desire is imitative. Desire is
14047
11:20:59,360 --> 11:21:05,596
social. Desire is mimemetic.
14048
11:21:03,436 --> 11:21:07,596
When Theel looked at Facebook, he did
14049
11:21:05,596 --> 11:21:10,400
not see a technology platform for
14050
11:21:07,596 --> 11:21:12,800
connecting friends. He saw something far
14051
11:21:10,400 --> 11:21:16,000
more powerful. He saw the perfect
14052
11:21:12,800 --> 11:21:18,480
mimemetic desire machine. the insight
14053
11:21:16,000 --> 11:21:20,560
that made [music] Theel invest. Social
14054
11:21:18,480 --> 11:21:23,116
networks do not create value by
14055
11:21:20,560 --> 11:21:26,400
connecting people. That is not where the
14056
11:21:23,116 --> 11:21:28,560
money is. The money is in comparison.
14057
11:21:26,400 --> 11:21:31,680
The money is in making people compare
14058
11:21:28,560 --> 11:21:34,400
themselves to each other constantly.
14059
11:21:31,680 --> 11:21:37,200
You see your friend's vacation photos,
14060
11:21:34,400 --> 11:21:39,520
you want a better vacation. You see
14061
11:21:37,200 --> 11:21:42,240
someone's job promotion announcement,
14062
11:21:39,520 --> 11:21:44,880
you want higher status. You see
14063
11:21:42,240 --> 11:21:47,520
someone's relationship photos, you want
14064
11:21:44,880 --> 11:21:49,360
romance.
14065
11:21:47,520 --> 11:21:52,640
You see someone getting likes and
14066
11:21:49,360 --> 11:21:55,520
comments, you want validation.
14067
11:21:52,640 --> 11:21:58,880
You see someone's perfect life, you feel
14068
11:21:55,520 --> 11:22:01,680
your own life is inadequate.
14069
11:21:58,880 --> 11:22:05,200
Facebook was not selling connections.
14070
11:22:01,680 --> 11:22:07,596
Facebook was selling envy. And envy,
14071
11:22:05,200 --> 11:22:10,080
Theel understood from Gerard, is the
14072
11:22:07,596 --> 11:22:11,360
most powerful economic force in human
14073
11:22:10,080 --> 11:22:14,560
history.
14074
11:22:11,360 --> 11:22:17,360
The desire for what others have. They
14075
11:22:14,560 --> 11:22:20,640
need to keep up. The fear of being left
14076
11:22:17,360 --> 11:22:24,080
behind. Infinite envy creates infinite
14077
11:22:20,640 --> 11:22:26,400
demand. Infinite demand creates infinite
14078
11:22:24,080 --> 11:22:28,880
value.
14079
11:22:26,400 --> 11:22:32,800
September 2004.
14080
11:22:28,880 --> 11:22:34,720
Peter Theal wires $500,000 to Facebook
14081
11:22:32,800 --> 11:22:38,960
incororated.
14082
11:22:34,720 --> 11:22:41,840
The deal terms 10.2% equity ownership in
14083
11:22:38,960 --> 11:22:43,596
the company. A board seat giving him
14084
11:22:41,840 --> 11:22:45,276
governance rights and inside
14085
11:22:43,596 --> 11:22:48,160
information.
14086
11:22:45,276 --> 11:22:51,520
Right of first refusal on all future
14087
11:22:48,160 --> 11:22:54,320
funding rounds. Post money valuation of
14088
11:22:51,520 --> 11:22:56,400
exactly $5 million.
14089
11:22:54,320 --> 11:22:59,680
Mark Zuckerberg's reaction after the
14090
11:22:56,400 --> 11:23:02,640
deal closed. This guy actually gets it.
14091
11:22:59,680 --> 11:23:05,680
He understands what we are building.
14092
11:23:02,640 --> 11:23:07,596
Silicon Valley's reaction. Peter Theal
14093
11:23:05,680 --> 11:23:10,720
just threw away half a million dollars
14094
11:23:07,596 --> 11:23:13,276
on a college kid's website. This will be
14095
11:23:10,720 --> 11:23:15,596
his biggest failure.
14096
11:23:13,276 --> 11:23:20,800
What happened next rewrote the history
14097
11:23:15,596 --> 11:23:25,436
of venture capital. 2004 end of year.
14098
11:23:20,800 --> 11:23:29,520
200,000 users grew to 1 million users.
14099
11:23:25,436 --> 11:23:33,040
Five times growth in 4 months. 2005
14100
11:23:29,520 --> 11:23:38,560
1 million users becomes 5.5 million
14101
11:23:33,040 --> 11:23:43,436
users. 2006 5.5 million users becomes 12
14102
11:23:38,560 --> 11:23:48,240
million users. 2007 12 million users
14103
11:23:43,436 --> 11:23:51,116
exploded to 50 million users. 2008 50
14104
11:23:48,240 --> 11:23:52,960
million users doubles to 100 million
14105
11:23:51,116 --> 11:23:54,480
users.
14106
11:23:52,960 --> 11:23:58,080
2009
14107
11:23:54,480 --> 11:24:01,360
100 million users becomes 350 million
14108
11:23:58,080 --> 11:24:04,480
users. growth rate. The user base was
14109
11:24:01,360 --> 11:24:06,880
doubling every 6 to9 months for five
14110
11:24:04,480 --> 11:24:09,436
consecutive years.
14111
11:24:06,880 --> 11:24:12,160
This growth curve had never been seen
14112
11:24:09,436 --> 11:24:15,680
before in business history. Not even
14113
11:24:12,160 --> 11:24:18,160
close. As Facebook grew, its valuation
14114
11:24:15,680 --> 11:24:20,512
grew and Peter Theel's stake grew with
14115
11:24:18,160 --> 11:24:20,512
it. [music]
14116
11:24:20,560 --> 11:24:26,480
May 2005,
14117
11:24:22,720 --> 11:24:29,360
Axel Partners invests $12.7 million at
14118
11:24:26,480 --> 11:24:33,116
$100 million valuation.
14119
11:24:29,360 --> 11:24:36,640
Field's 10.2% stake is now worth $10.2
14120
11:24:33,116 --> 11:24:39,276
million. He has achieved 20 times return
14121
11:24:36,640 --> 11:24:42,800
in 9 months.
14122
11:24:39,276 --> 11:24:47,116
April 2006, Greylock Partners and
14123
11:24:42,800 --> 11:24:49,840
Meritech Capital invest $27.5 million at
14124
11:24:47,116 --> 11:24:53,276
$500 million valuation.
14125
11:24:49,840 --> 11:24:55,596
Theel stake is now worth $51 million,
14126
11:24:53,276 --> 11:24:57,276
100 times return on his original
14127
11:24:55,596 --> 11:24:59,756
investment.
14128
11:24:57,276 --> 11:25:04,320
October 2007,
14129
11:24:59,756 --> 11:25:08,000
Microsoft invests $240 million, valuing
14130
11:25:04,320 --> 11:25:12,400
Facebook at $15 billion.
14131
11:25:08,000 --> 11:25:16,960
Theel stake is now worth $1.5 billion, a
14132
11:25:12,400 --> 11:25:19,916
300,000 times return in 3 years.
14133
11:25:16,960 --> 11:25:22,320
2009 through 2011,
14134
11:25:19,916 --> 11:25:25,436
multiple private sales and secondary
14135
11:25:22,320 --> 11:25:27,276
transactions value Facebook at $50
14136
11:25:25,436 --> 11:25:30,240
billion.
14137
11:25:27,276 --> 11:25:33,680
The stake, if he had held everything,
14138
11:25:30,240 --> 11:25:37,040
would be [music] worth $5 billion.
14139
11:25:33,680 --> 11:25:39,436
May 18th, 2012.
14140
11:25:37,040 --> 11:25:44,320
Facebook goes public at a market
14141
11:25:39,436 --> 11:25:46,960
capitalization of $14 billion.
14142
11:25:44,320 --> 11:25:50,160
But Theel does not hold everything. He
14143
11:25:46,960 --> 11:25:52,640
is strategic. He is tactical. He takes
14144
11:25:50,160 --> 11:25:56,720
profits. At [music] the initial public
14145
11:25:52,640 --> 11:25:59,200
offering, Theel sells $640 million worth
14146
11:25:56,720 --> 11:26:01,436
of shares immediately.
14147
11:25:59,200 --> 11:26:03,596
Over the following 6 months, he sells
14148
11:26:01,436 --> 11:26:06,000
the remainder of his stake in carefully
14149
11:26:03,596 --> 11:26:08,240
timed transactions.
14150
11:26:06,000 --> 11:26:12,960
Total cash realized from the Facebook
14151
11:26:08,240 --> 11:26:16,240
investment approximately $1 billion.
14152
11:26:12,960 --> 11:26:18,240
Initial investment in August 2004,
14153
11:26:16,240 --> 11:26:20,720
$500,000.
14154
11:26:18,240 --> 11:26:24,080
Total [music] cash realized by end of
14155
11:26:20,720 --> 11:26:28,880
2012, $1 billion.
14156
11:26:24,080 --> 11:26:30,720
Total return 2,000 times in 8 years.
14157
11:26:28,880 --> 11:26:33,680
This is the single greatest venture
14158
11:26:30,720 --> 11:26:36,080
capital return in recorded history.
14159
11:26:33,680 --> 11:26:38,880
Nothing else comes close.
14160
11:26:36,080 --> 11:26:40,880
But here is the twist. The haunting
14161
11:26:38,880 --> 11:26:44,320
decision that Theel himself [music]
14162
11:26:40,880 --> 11:26:46,400
admits keeps him awake at night. Selling
14163
11:26:44,320 --> 11:26:49,116
was a mistake.
14164
11:26:46,400 --> 11:26:52,160
If Peter Theal had held his original
14165
11:26:49,116 --> 11:26:54,720
10.2% [music] stake and had never sold a
14166
11:26:52,160 --> 11:26:58,640
single share, that stake at Facebook's
14167
11:26:54,720 --> 11:27:02,560
peak market capitalization in 2021 would
14168
11:26:58,640 --> 11:27:05,756
have been worth 102 billion.
14169
11:27:02,560 --> 11:27:08,800
$12 [music] billion.
14170
11:27:05,756 --> 11:27:10,960
He left $100 billion on the table by
14171
11:27:08,800 --> 11:27:12,724
selling early.
14172
11:27:10,960 --> 11:27:15,116
The himself admitted this publicly,
14173
11:27:12,724 --> 11:27:17,916
[music] saying, "The mistake was not
14174
11:27:15,116 --> 11:27:20,000
investing in Facebook. The mistake was
14175
11:27:17,916 --> 11:27:22,720
selling Facebook.
14176
11:27:20,000 --> 11:27:25,276
I should have held longer. I should have
14177
11:27:22,720 --> 11:27:30,000
believed more. It is the single most
14178
11:27:25,276 --> 11:27:32,080
expensive decision of his life." Years
14179
11:27:30,000 --> 11:27:34,320
later in a Stanford [music] lecture,
14180
11:27:32,080 --> 11:27:38,560
Theel explained his actual investment
14181
11:27:34,320 --> 11:27:40,640
thesis, the real reason he invested. I
14182
11:27:38,560 --> 11:27:42,080
did not invest in Facebook because I
14183
11:27:40,640 --> 11:27:44,800
thought [music] social networks were
14184
11:27:42,080 --> 11:27:47,040
going to be big. I invested because I
14185
11:27:44,800 --> 11:27:49,276
understood that humans will always want
14186
11:27:47,040 --> 11:27:52,960
to be more like their [music] peers.
14187
11:27:49,276 --> 11:27:55,436
That desire is infinite. It never stops.
14188
11:27:52,960 --> 11:27:58,000
It only intensifies.
14189
11:27:55,436 --> 11:28:00,960
An infinite desire creates infinite
14190
11:27:58,000 --> 11:28:03,116
value. The mimemetic [music] theory made
14191
11:28:00,960 --> 11:28:05,040
him a billionaire.
14192
11:28:03,116 --> 11:28:07,436
The mimemetic theory also [music] made
14193
11:28:05,040 --> 11:28:08,960
him terrified of what he had helped
14194
11:28:07,436 --> 11:28:12,320
create.
14195
11:28:08,960 --> 11:28:14,800
A machine that weaponizes human envy. A
14196
11:28:12,320 --> 11:28:16,720
system that profits from making people
14197
11:28:14,800 --> 11:28:19,360
feel [music] inadequate.
14198
11:28:16,720 --> 11:28:21,916
An algorithm that amplifies the worst
14199
11:28:19,360 --> 11:28:24,160
aspects [music] of human nature.
14200
11:28:21,916 --> 11:28:26,080
Peter Theal helped build the most
14201
11:28:24,160 --> 11:28:29,756
powerful behavior modification [music]
14202
11:28:26,080 --> 11:28:34,436
system in human history. And then he
14203
11:28:29,756 --> 11:28:34,436
cashed out for a billion dollars.
14204
11:28:40,800 --> 11:28:48,640
2003 Peter Theel has a problem. It is
14205
11:28:45,436 --> 11:28:51,680
the CIA's problem, but they think the
14206
11:28:48,640 --> 11:28:54,480
can solve it. His PayPal anti-fraud
14207
11:28:51,680 --> 11:28:56,800
algorithms have become so sophisticated
14208
11:28:54,480 --> 11:28:59,116
at detecting patterns in financial
14209
11:28:56,800 --> 11:29:01,360
transactions at finding terrorists
14210
11:28:59,116 --> 11:29:05,116
trying to move money through banking
14211
11:29:01,360 --> 11:29:08,480
systems that the CIA venture capital arm
14212
11:29:05,116 --> 11:29:11,436
in QEL requested a meeting. [music]
14213
11:29:08,480 --> 11:29:14,160
The pitch from the CIA, can you build
14214
11:29:11,436 --> 11:29:16,640
what you built for PayPal but for
14215
11:29:14,160 --> 11:29:20,400
national security? Can you find
14216
11:29:16,640 --> 11:29:22,320
terrorists the way you found fraudsters?
14217
11:29:20,400 --> 11:29:24,720
May 2003,
14218
11:29:22,320 --> 11:29:27,116
Peter Theel co-founds Palunteer
14219
11:29:24,720 --> 11:29:28,720
Technologies with an unusual group of
14220
11:29:27,116 --> 11:29:31,680
co-founders.
14221
11:29:28,720 --> 11:29:35,116
The founding team, Alex Karp, chief
14222
11:29:31,680 --> 11:29:37,520
executive officer, Stanford Law Degree,
14223
11:29:35,116 --> 11:29:40,160
philosophy, PhD from Frankfurt
14224
11:29:37,520 --> 11:29:42,800
University in Germany, former human
14225
11:29:40,160 --> 11:29:44,320
rights lawyer who once worked on refugee
14226
11:29:42,800 --> 11:29:46,880
cases.
14227
11:29:44,320 --> 11:29:48,880
an extremely odd choice to run a company
14228
11:29:46,880 --> 11:29:51,040
that will become the most powerful
14229
11:29:48,880 --> 11:29:52,560
surveillance technology provider on
14230
11:29:51,040 --> 11:29:55,116
Earth.
14231
11:29:52,560 --> 11:29:58,240
Nathan Gettings, chief technology
14232
11:29:55,116 --> 11:30:01,200
officer. PayPal's lead security
14233
11:29:58,240 --> 11:30:04,160
engineer. Brilliant programmer. Joe
14234
11:30:01,200 --> 11:30:07,116
Lndale, a Stamford undergraduate
14235
11:30:04,160 --> 11:30:10,720
student, barely 20 years old, one of the
14236
11:30:07,116 --> 11:30:13,840
first Theel fellows. Steven Cohen,
14237
11:30:10,720 --> 11:30:15,472
PayPal's chief security architect. The
14238
11:30:13,840 --> 11:30:18,000
person who actually built the fraud
14239
11:30:15,472 --> 11:30:20,400
[music] detection algorithms. Initial
14240
11:30:18,000 --> 11:30:22,560
funding $2 million
14241
11:30:20,400 --> 11:30:26,160
entirely from Peter Theel's personal
14242
11:30:22,560 --> 11:30:28,320
capital. No outside investors yet. This
14243
11:30:26,160 --> 11:30:30,960
is his project.
14244
11:30:28,320 --> 11:30:32,640
The mission statement. Build software
14245
11:30:30,960 --> 11:30:35,116
that can find patterns in [music]
14246
11:30:32,640 --> 11:30:38,000
massive data sets from disperate
14247
11:30:35,116 --> 11:30:41,040
incompatible sources.
14248
11:30:38,000 --> 11:30:43,360
The kind of data that if intelligency
14249
11:30:41,040 --> 11:30:46,320
agencies had been able to analyze it
14250
11:30:43,360 --> 11:30:49,276
properly could have prevented September
14251
11:30:46,320 --> 11:30:52,880
11th, 2001.
14252
11:30:49,276 --> 11:30:55,276
The company name Palunteer named after
14253
11:30:52,880 --> 11:30:57,276
the seeing stones in Lord of the Rings,
14254
11:30:55,276 --> 11:30:59,436
the magical orbs that allow their
14255
11:30:57,276 --> 11:31:02,400
possessors to see anything happening
14256
11:30:59,436 --> 11:31:05,840
anywhere in Middle Earth. Even the name
14257
11:31:02,400 --> 11:31:07,436
revealed the ambition total information
14258
11:31:05,840 --> 11:31:12,276
awareness.
14259
11:31:07,436 --> 11:31:12,276
the ability to see everything.
14260
11:31:12,480 --> 11:31:17,596
2005,
14261
11:31:14,000 --> 11:31:20,480
the CIA's venture capital arm in CQEL
14262
11:31:17,596 --> 11:31:23,360
invest $2 million in Palanteer's series
14263
11:31:20,480 --> 11:31:26,080
A funding round. This was not just
14264
11:31:23,360 --> 11:31:28,640
money. This was validation from the
14265
11:31:26,080 --> 11:31:30,960
intelligence [music] community. A stamp
14266
11:31:28,640 --> 11:31:33,416
of approval from the most secretive,
14267
11:31:30,960 --> 11:31:35,360
most paranoid organization in the US
14268
11:31:33,416 --> 11:31:39,200
[music] government.
14269
11:31:35,360 --> 11:31:41,276
Initial contract value undisclosed.
14270
11:31:39,200 --> 11:31:44,640
Government intelligence contracts are
14271
11:31:41,276 --> 11:31:47,360
classified by law, but industry analysts
14272
11:31:44,640 --> 11:31:50,800
estimate the first CIA contracts were
14273
11:31:47,360 --> 11:31:52,880
worth 5 to 10 million annually.
14274
11:31:50,800 --> 11:31:56,400
The product was called Palunteer [music]
14275
11:31:52,880 --> 11:32:00,160
Gotham. The name itself was significant.
14276
11:31:56,400 --> 11:32:02,160
Gotham, the dark city that needs Batman.
14277
11:32:00,160 --> 11:32:04,640
The city that needs surveillance to
14278
11:32:02,160 --> 11:32:06,160
fight crime. core technical
14279
11:32:04,640 --> 11:32:08,160
capabilities.
14280
11:32:06,160 --> 11:32:10,880
Integrate data [music] from dozens of
14281
11:32:08,160 --> 11:32:12,720
incompatible government databases that
14282
11:32:10,880 --> 11:32:14,880
were never designed to communicate with
14283
11:32:12,720 --> 11:32:17,680
[music] each other. From hidden
14284
11:32:14,880 --> 11:32:20,480
connections between people, places,
14285
11:32:17,680 --> 11:32:22,160
financial transactions, communications
14286
11:32:20,480 --> 11:32:24,800
metadata,
14287
11:32:22,160 --> 11:32:27,040
visualize networks of relationships in
14288
11:32:24,800 --> 11:32:29,040
ways human analysts could understand
14289
11:32:27,040 --> 11:32:31,360
intuitively.
14290
11:32:29,040 --> 11:32:33,596
Predict future behavior and likely
14291
11:32:31,360 --> 11:32:36,560
attack patterns based on historical
14292
11:32:33,596 --> 11:32:39,436
data. Specific use cases for
14293
11:32:36,560 --> 11:32:42,400
intelligence agencies. Track terrorist
14294
11:32:39,436 --> 11:32:44,400
cells across multiple countries. Map
14295
11:32:42,400 --> 11:32:46,560
drug trafficking routes from production
14296
11:32:44,400 --> 11:32:48,720
to distribution.
14297
11:32:46,560 --> 11:32:51,680
Identify money laundering networks
14298
11:32:48,720 --> 11:32:54,160
moving funds for organized crime.
14299
11:32:51,680 --> 11:32:56,400
Predict insurgent attacks in Iraq and
14300
11:32:54,160 --> 11:33:00,080
Afghanistan based on pattern
14301
11:32:56,400 --> 11:33:03,840
recognition. It worked. The software
14302
11:33:00,080 --> 11:33:06,960
actually worked. By 2006, Palanteer
14303
11:33:03,840 --> 11:33:08,320
software was being actively used in Iraq
14304
11:33:06,960 --> 11:33:13,520
for counterinsurgency [music]
14305
11:33:08,320 --> 11:33:15,756
operations and in IED attack prediction.
14306
11:33:13,520 --> 11:33:18,720
Afghanistan for predicting Taliban
14307
11:33:15,756 --> 11:33:22,320
leadership networks. Langley, Virginia
14308
11:33:18,720 --> 11:33:25,040
at CIA headquarters for threat analysis.
14309
11:33:22,320 --> 11:33:29,240
FBI field officers nationwide for
14310
11:33:25,040 --> 11:33:29,240
domestic terrorism investigation.
14311
11:33:29,276 --> 11:33:35,436
Early revenue growth told the story of
14312
11:33:31,436 --> 11:33:38,240
Palunteers expanding reach. 2005
14313
11:33:35,436 --> 11:33:41,116
$3 million in revenue. Government
14314
11:33:38,240 --> 11:33:44,560
contracts [music] only. 2006 $10
14315
11:33:41,116 --> 11:33:50,000
million. 2007
14316
11:33:44,560 --> 11:33:54,640
$25 million. 2008 $50 million. First
14317
11:33:50,000 --> 11:34:01,116
commercial clients added 2010 $150
14318
11:33:54,640 --> 11:34:02,880
million 2012 $400 million. By 2012,
14319
11:34:01,116 --> 11:34:05,040
Palanteer had achieved something
14320
11:34:02,880 --> 11:34:08,720
extremely rare for a high- growth
14321
11:34:05,040 --> 11:34:10,960
technology company. Profitability.
14322
11:34:08,720 --> 11:34:13,916
They were actually making money, not
14323
11:34:10,960 --> 11:34:17,040
just burning venture capital. Customer
14324
11:34:13,916 --> 11:34:21,040
revenue breakdown in 2012.
14325
11:34:17,040 --> 11:34:23,596
Government contracts, 60% of revenue,
14326
11:34:21,040 --> 11:34:28,080
$240 million.
14327
11:34:23,596 --> 11:34:30,800
Commercial clients, 40% of revenue, $160
14328
11:34:28,080 --> 11:34:34,800
million.
14329
11:34:30,800 --> 11:34:37,116
May the 1st, 2011. Palanteer Software
14330
11:34:34,800 --> 11:34:40,400
plays a role in the operation that kills
14331
11:34:37,116 --> 11:34:42,640
Osama bin Laden. A role that remains
14332
11:34:40,400 --> 11:34:45,756
partially classified, but has been
14333
11:34:42,640 --> 11:34:48,560
confirmed by multiple sources.
14334
11:34:45,756 --> 11:34:50,880
How Palanteer contributed. Palanteer
14335
11:34:48,560 --> 11:34:53,276
Gotham integrated dozens of different
14336
11:34:50,880 --> 11:34:55,680
intelligence sources.
14337
11:34:53,276 --> 11:34:58,880
CIA human intelligence on career
14338
11:34:55,680 --> 11:35:01,436
networks. NSA signal intelligence
14339
11:34:58,880 --> 11:35:04,320
including phone metadata and email
14340
11:35:01,436 --> 11:35:07,436
communications patterns.
14341
11:35:04,320 --> 11:35:10,320
National Geospatial Intelligence Agency
14342
11:35:07,436 --> 11:35:11,840
satellite imagery of potential compound
14343
11:35:10,320 --> 11:35:14,320
locations.
14344
11:35:11,840 --> 11:35:16,320
historical pattern analysis of previous
14345
11:35:14,320 --> 11:35:19,116
highv value target operations in
14346
11:35:16,320 --> 11:35:21,200
Pakistan.
14347
11:35:19,116 --> 11:35:23,520
The system identified patterns and
14348
11:35:21,200 --> 11:35:26,000
connections that human analysts working
14349
11:35:23,520 --> 11:35:29,200
with separate databases that did not
14350
11:35:26,000 --> 11:35:31,436
communicate had missed. It narrowed the
14351
11:35:29,200 --> 11:35:35,916
search area and helped confirm the
14352
11:35:31,436 --> 11:35:38,000
identity of the Abotabad compound.
14353
11:35:35,916 --> 11:35:40,400
When asked about Palanteer's role in the
14354
11:35:38,000 --> 11:35:43,520
bin Laden operation, Theel gave
14355
11:35:40,400 --> 11:35:45,840
carefully worded response. I cannot
14356
11:35:43,520 --> 11:35:48,400
comment on specific operations or
14357
11:35:45,840 --> 11:35:52,560
specific clients due to classification
14358
11:35:48,400 --> 11:35:54,960
requirements, but I will say this. Tools
14359
11:35:52,560 --> 11:35:57,116
that help protect American lives and
14360
11:35:54,960 --> 11:36:02,480
help intelligence professionals do their
14361
11:35:57,116 --> 11:36:04,720
jobs better. That is our mission.
14362
11:36:02,480 --> 11:36:07,212
This single operation, this single
14363
11:36:04,720 --> 11:36:09,276
success legitimized Palanteer's entire
14364
11:36:07,212 --> 11:36:12,080
[music] value proposition to the
14365
11:36:09,276 --> 11:36:14,960
national security establishment.
14366
11:36:12,080 --> 11:36:17,436
After bin Laden, the contracts poured
14367
11:36:14,960 --> 11:36:20,160
in.
14368
11:36:17,436 --> 11:36:23,116
After the bin Laden success, Palanteer's
14369
11:36:20,160 --> 11:36:27,680
government business exploded. Revenue
14370
11:36:23,116 --> 11:36:33,040
growth from 2012 to 2015.
14371
11:36:27,680 --> 11:36:34,960
2012, $400 million in revenue. 2013,
14372
11:36:33,040 --> 11:36:36,480
$600 million. [music]
14373
11:36:34,960 --> 11:36:41,840
2014,
14374
11:36:36,480 --> 11:36:44,548
$900 million. 2015, $1.5 billion in
14375
11:36:41,840 --> 11:36:47,960
revenue. Major new contracts announced
14376
11:36:44,548 --> 11:36:47,960
[music] publicly.
14377
11:36:49,360 --> 11:36:56,800
US Department of Defense, $222 million
14378
11:36:53,916 --> 11:36:58,560
for a 3-year data integration platform
14379
11:36:56,800 --> 11:37:02,560
contract.
14380
11:36:58,560 --> 11:37:05,596
US Army, $800 million for comprehensive
14381
11:37:02,560 --> 11:37:07,840
data platform modernization across all
14382
11:37:05,596 --> 11:37:12,000
Army systems,
14383
11:37:07,840 --> 11:37:14,640
US Special Operations Command, $444
14384
11:37:12,000 --> 11:37:16,400
million for targeting and intelligence
14385
11:37:14,640 --> 11:37:19,916
fusion,
14386
11:37:16,400 --> 11:37:22,240
Department of Homeland Security, $240
14387
11:37:19,916 --> 11:37:25,360
million for border security and
14388
11:37:22,240 --> 11:37:27,756
immigration enforcement [music] systems.
14389
11:37:25,360 --> 11:37:30,320
Palanteer had become the single most
14390
11:37:27,756 --> 11:37:32,240
important software company in the entire
14391
11:37:30,320 --> 11:37:33,840
US defense and intelligence
14392
11:37:32,240 --> 11:37:36,080
establishment, [music]
14393
11:37:33,840 --> 11:37:39,276
more important than traditional defense
14394
11:37:36,080 --> 11:37:41,276
contractors, more embedded in classified
14395
11:37:39,276 --> 11:37:43,916
operations.
14396
11:37:41,276 --> 11:37:45,916
Simultaneously, Palunteer launched a
14397
11:37:43,916 --> 11:37:46,720
commercial product called Palunteer
14398
11:37:45,916 --> 11:37:49,520
Foundry [music]
14399
11:37:46,720 --> 11:37:52,640
for private sector clients. The sales
14400
11:37:49,520 --> 11:37:56,080
pitch to corporate America. Your company
14401
11:37:52,640 --> 11:37:59,116
has exactly the same problem as the CIA.
14402
11:37:56,080 --> 11:38:02,560
Too much data, too many incompatible
14403
11:37:59,116 --> 11:38:05,436
systems, not enough insight. We can help
14404
11:38:02,560 --> 11:38:08,000
you find the patterns you are missing.
14405
11:38:05,436 --> 11:38:11,520
Major commercial clients and estimated
14406
11:38:08,000 --> 11:38:15,916
contract values.
14407
11:38:11,520 --> 11:38:18,160
JP Morgan Chase, over $100 million,
14408
11:38:15,916 --> 11:38:21,520
fraud detection and financial crime
14409
11:38:18,160 --> 11:38:24,400
prevention. Morgan Stanley over $50
14410
11:38:21,520 --> 11:38:29,200
million risk management and regulatory
14411
11:38:24,400 --> 11:38:31,360
compliance. Airbus over $75 million
14412
11:38:29,200 --> 11:38:34,080
supply chain optimization and
14413
11:38:31,360 --> 11:38:38,240
manufacturing analytics.
14414
11:38:34,080 --> 11:38:40,880
Merc Pharmaceuticals over $60 million
14415
11:38:38,240 --> 11:38:43,756
drug discovery analytics and clinical
14416
11:38:40,880 --> 11:38:48,320
trial data integration.
14417
11:38:43,756 --> 11:38:52,160
BP over $80 million oil field production
14418
11:38:48,320 --> 11:38:55,436
optimization and predictive maintenance.
14419
11:38:52,160 --> 11:38:57,276
Commercial revenue growth from 2015 to
14420
11:38:55,436 --> 11:39:00,560
2020. [music]
14421
11:38:57,276 --> 11:39:04,240
In 2015, they got $600 million
14422
11:39:00,560 --> 11:39:08,720
commercial revenue. By 2016, the number
14423
11:39:04,240 --> 11:39:11,360
was around $800 billion. In 2017, they
14424
11:39:08,720 --> 11:39:14,800
reached $1.1 billion in commercial
14425
11:39:11,360 --> 11:39:18,720
revenue, and it became their peak year.
14426
11:39:14,800 --> 11:39:21,040
2018 made them hit the $750 million
14427
11:39:18,720 --> 11:39:24,520
mark, a temporary decline due to
14428
11:39:21,040 --> 11:39:24,520
customer churn.
14429
11:39:24,560 --> 11:39:30,320
In 2019, revenue was around $745
14430
11:39:28,720 --> 11:39:33,436
million,
14431
11:39:30,320 --> 11:39:37,360
and by 2020, they [music] reached $1.1
14432
11:39:33,436 --> 11:39:41,040
billion. Again, this recovery was driven
14433
11:39:37,360 --> 11:39:43,520
by COVID analytics contracts. Palanteer
14434
11:39:41,040 --> 11:39:46,880
had created a business model with two
14435
11:39:43,520 --> 11:39:48,720
enormous locked in customer bases, the
14436
11:39:46,880 --> 11:39:52,916
US government and the largest
14437
11:39:48,720 --> 11:39:52,916
corporations [music] in the world.
14438
11:39:54,480 --> 11:39:59,596
But Palanteer's work, especially for
14439
11:39:56,800 --> 11:40:03,040
government agencies, attracted intense
14440
11:39:59,596 --> 11:40:06,000
controversy and moral criticism.
14441
11:40:03,040 --> 11:40:10,080
In 2019, they secured a contract with
14442
11:40:06,000 --> 11:40:12,184
ICE for $49 million. The purpose of the
14443
11:40:10,080 --> 11:40:15,040
contract was enforcement and removal
14444
11:40:12,184 --> 11:40:17,916
[music] operations systems,
14445
11:40:15,040 --> 11:40:20,400
meaning a software used to identify,
14446
11:40:17,916 --> 11:40:23,200
track, and process undocumented
14447
11:40:20,400 --> 11:40:25,360
immigrants for deportation.
14448
11:40:23,200 --> 11:40:28,080
This project came with a controversy
14449
11:40:25,360 --> 11:40:30,000
attached. The software was used during
14450
11:40:28,080 --> 11:40:32,720
the family separation [music] policy at
14451
11:40:30,000 --> 11:40:36,320
the southern border. Children separated
14452
11:40:32,720 --> 11:40:38,480
from their parents, families torn apart.
14453
11:40:36,320 --> 11:40:41,200
Palanteer Software helped make it
14454
11:40:38,480 --> 11:40:43,756
operationally possible. Hundreds of
14455
11:40:41,200 --> 11:40:46,160
Palunteer employees signed an internal
14456
11:40:43,756 --> 11:40:49,360
letter demanding the company cancel the
14457
11:40:46,160 --> 11:40:51,596
ICE [music] contract.
14458
11:40:49,360 --> 11:40:54,640
They argued the company was enabling
14459
11:40:51,596 --> 11:40:58,400
human rights [music] abuses. The Karp's
14460
11:40:54,640 --> 11:41:00,400
response, absolute refusal. The contract
14461
11:40:58,400 --> 11:41:02,960
would continue.
14462
11:41:00,400 --> 11:41:05,276
Alex K gave a public statement saying
14463
11:41:02,960 --> 11:41:08,800
that they had chosen sides and that the
14464
11:41:05,276 --> 11:41:11,276
company supported American institutions.
14465
11:41:08,800 --> 11:41:14,640
But this was not the only controversy
14466
11:41:11,276 --> 11:41:17,596
Palanteer has faced. Palanteer worked
14467
11:41:14,640 --> 11:41:18,880
alongside the NYPD with a contract
14468
11:41:17,596 --> 11:41:22,800
estimated between [music]
14469
11:41:18,880 --> 11:41:25,116
50 and $100 billion. The mission
14470
11:41:22,800 --> 11:41:27,436
predictive policy.
14471
11:41:25,116 --> 11:41:30,000
They were asked to use historical crime
14472
11:41:27,436 --> 11:41:32,960
data to predict where future crimes will
14473
11:41:30,000 --> 11:41:35,680
occur and who is likely to commit them.
14474
11:41:32,960 --> 11:41:38,480
The controversy civil rights groups
14475
11:41:35,680 --> 11:41:41,360
argued that system perpetuated racial
14476
11:41:38,480 --> 11:41:44,320
bias. Minority neighborhoods were
14477
11:41:41,360 --> 11:41:45,916
flagged as high risk. Innocent people
14478
11:41:44,320 --> 11:41:49,840
were [music] put under surveillance
14479
11:41:45,916 --> 11:41:53,436
based on algorithmic predictions.
14480
11:41:49,840 --> 11:41:55,916
Joe Londale, Palunteer co-founder, had
14481
11:41:53,436 --> 11:41:57,520
made a personal investment in Cambridge
14482
11:41:55,916 --> 11:41:59,840
Analytica.
14483
11:41:57,520 --> 11:42:02,320
Multiple Palanteer employees on their
14484
11:41:59,840 --> 11:42:06,840
own time helped Cambridge Analytica
14485
11:42:02,320 --> 11:42:06,840
build data integration models.
14486
11:42:06,960 --> 11:42:12,000
Both companies use similar approaches to
14487
11:42:09,680 --> 11:42:13,596
data harvesting and psychological
14488
11:42:12,000 --> 11:42:15,360
profiling.
14489
11:42:13,596 --> 11:42:18,240
When the connection was exposed by
14490
11:42:15,360 --> 11:42:21,276
journalists, Palanteer claimed there was
14491
11:42:18,240 --> 11:42:24,640
no institutional relationship, just
14492
11:42:21,276 --> 11:42:26,880
coincidental personal connections.
14493
11:42:24,640 --> 11:42:30,960
But the damage to Palanteer's reputation
14494
11:42:26,880 --> 11:42:33,360
was done. The had built the panoptagon,
14495
11:42:30,960 --> 11:42:35,840
the allseeing eye of corporate and
14496
11:42:33,360 --> 11:42:39,276
government surveillance.
14497
11:42:35,840 --> 11:42:42,480
September the 30th, 2020.
14498
11:42:39,276 --> 11:42:44,400
After 17 years as a private company, one
14499
11:42:42,480 --> 11:42:47,116
of the longest periods of private
14500
11:42:44,400 --> 11:42:50,080
operation for any major tech company,
14501
11:42:47,116 --> 11:42:53,116
Palanteer finally goes public through a
14502
11:42:50,080 --> 11:42:56,000
direct listing.
14503
11:42:53,116 --> 11:42:58,880
They went public at $10 per share and
14504
11:42:56,000 --> 11:43:02,480
their market capitalization at market
14505
11:42:58,880 --> 11:43:05,840
open was $16 billion.
14506
11:43:02,480 --> 11:43:07,680
By the first day, shares were down 5%.
14507
11:43:05,840 --> 11:43:09,200
The stock was initially a
14508
11:43:07,680 --> 11:43:11,360
disappointment.
14509
11:43:09,200 --> 11:43:13,360
Investors were skeptical of the business
14510
11:43:11,360 --> 11:43:16,000
model, worried about customer
14511
11:43:13,360 --> 11:43:18,080
concentration, concerned about the
14512
11:43:16,000 --> 11:43:21,200
controversy.
14513
11:43:18,080 --> 11:43:24,240
But then COVID 19 created massive new
14514
11:43:21,200 --> 11:43:28,160
demand for Palanteer's capabilities.
14515
11:43:24,240 --> 11:43:30,560
2020 to 2021, Palanteer wins enormous
14516
11:43:28,160 --> 11:43:33,756
pandemic related government contracts
14517
11:43:30,560 --> 11:43:35,840
with governments across the world. The
14518
11:43:33,756 --> 11:43:39,116
pandemic proved that governments needed
14519
11:43:35,840 --> 11:43:42,160
Palanteer and the market responded.
14520
11:43:39,116 --> 11:43:48,080
By late 2021, Palanteer stock had
14521
11:43:42,160 --> 11:43:50,480
exploded. $29 per share at 190% gain
14522
11:43:48,080 --> 11:43:52,240
from the direct listing price. Market
14523
11:43:50,480 --> 11:43:55,800
capitalization
14524
11:43:52,240 --> 11:43:55,800
$60 billion.
14525
11:43:56,960 --> 11:44:03,916
Peter Theal stake approximately 7%
14526
11:44:00,560 --> 11:44:07,840
ownership worth 4.2 2 billion at the
14527
11:44:03,916 --> 11:44:10,960
peak. 2022, the tech crash hits
14528
11:44:07,840 --> 11:44:14,960
Palanteer brutally hard. Stock prices
14529
11:44:10,960 --> 11:44:18,160
crash to $6 per share, down 8% from the
14530
11:44:14,960 --> 11:44:20,320
peak. Market cap collapses to $13
14531
11:44:18,160 --> 11:44:22,400
billion.
14532
11:44:20,320 --> 11:44:28,240
The paper wealth from Palanteer
14533
11:44:22,400 --> 11:44:31,596
evaporates. Billions gone. 2023 to 2024,
14534
11:44:28,240 --> 11:44:34,000
the AI boom creates new opportunity.
14535
11:44:31,596 --> 11:44:36,960
Palanteer markets itself as the AI
14536
11:44:34,000 --> 11:44:39,916
platform for governments and enterprises
14537
11:44:36,960 --> 11:44:44,640
and they get major new contract wins.
14538
11:44:39,916 --> 11:44:46,632
The US Army invested $463 million for AI
14539
11:44:44,640 --> 11:44:49,680
powered battlefield analytics and
14540
11:44:46,632 --> 11:44:52,160
[music] decision support systems.
14541
11:44:49,680 --> 11:44:56,880
Palanteer stock recovered
14542
11:44:52,160 --> 11:44:59,520
25 to 30 per share by 2024.
14543
11:44:56,880 --> 11:45:02,480
As of 2024, Peter Theel's current
14544
11:44:59,520 --> 11:45:04,960
Palanteer holdings are approximately 7%
14545
11:45:02,480 --> 11:45:09,040
of all shares with a current value
14546
11:45:04,960 --> 11:45:13,640
ranging from 3.8 to $4.5 billion
14547
11:45:09,040 --> 11:45:13,640
depending on daily stock price.
14548
11:45:15,200 --> 11:45:21,840
This makes Palunteer Field's single
14549
11:45:18,400 --> 11:45:25,116
largest source of personal wealth. In
14550
11:45:21,840 --> 11:45:27,200
2024, Palanteer's financial performance
14551
11:45:25,116 --> 11:45:30,000
was divided between government and
14552
11:45:27,200 --> 11:45:34,800
commercial revenue. The company's net
14553
11:45:30,000 --> 11:45:36,640
income was $2.5 billion annually. And as
14554
11:45:34,800 --> 11:45:38,560
big as the number is, this might
14555
11:45:36,640 --> 11:45:41,040
represent a future problem for the
14556
11:45:38,560 --> 11:45:43,200
company. If government budget cuts
14557
11:45:41,040 --> 11:45:44,720
happen, Palanteer is extremely
14558
11:45:43,200 --> 11:45:46,960
vulnerable.
14559
11:45:44,720 --> 11:45:50,560
Their entire business model depends on
14560
11:45:46,960 --> 11:45:53,756
continued government spending. Here is
14561
11:45:50,560 --> 11:45:55,756
Peter Theal's fundamental contradiction.
14562
11:45:53,756 --> 11:45:57,680
The paradox at the heart of everything
14563
11:45:55,756 --> 11:45:59,916
he has built. He claims to be a
14564
11:45:57,680 --> 11:46:03,200
libertarian who values individual
14565
11:45:59,916 --> 11:46:04,880
freedom above all else. A man who
14566
11:46:03,200 --> 11:46:07,276
believes government power should be
14567
11:46:04,880 --> 11:46:10,480
minimal. A man who wrote that freedom
14568
11:46:07,276 --> 11:46:13,040
and democracy are incompatible.
14569
11:46:10,480 --> 11:46:15,060
Yet, he built the most powerful private
14570
11:46:13,040 --> 11:46:18,080
surveillance technology company in
14571
11:46:15,060 --> 11:46:20,240
[music] human history. A company that
14572
11:46:18,080 --> 11:46:23,680
gives governments and corporations
14573
11:46:20,240 --> 11:46:26,960
unprecedented ability to monitor, track,
14574
11:46:23,680 --> 11:46:29,360
predict, and control human behavior.
14575
11:46:26,960 --> 11:46:31,520
Palunteers technical capabilities
14576
11:46:29,360 --> 11:46:34,320
include [music] realtime tracking of
14577
11:46:31,520 --> 11:46:37,720
individuals across multiple data sources
14578
11:46:34,320 --> 11:46:37,720
and databases.
14579
11:46:38,320 --> 11:46:42,960
Predictive behavioral modeling that
14580
11:46:40,960 --> 11:46:46,240
forecasts what people will do before
14581
11:46:42,960 --> 11:46:48,640
they do it. Network analysis that maps
14582
11:46:46,240 --> 11:46:50,800
every person you have ever contacted
14583
11:46:48,640 --> 11:46:52,960
through any medium. [music]
14584
11:46:50,800 --> 11:46:56,080
Complete integration of financial
14585
11:46:52,960 --> 11:46:58,400
records, communication metadata,
14586
11:46:56,080 --> 11:47:01,596
location history, and social
14587
11:46:58,400 --> 11:47:03,520
relationship data into a single unified
14588
11:47:01,596 --> 11:47:06,080
profile.
14589
11:47:03,520 --> 11:47:08,400
Field's defense of this contradiction
14590
11:47:06,080 --> 11:47:12,640
was explaining that the alternative to
14591
11:47:08,400 --> 11:47:15,200
Palanteer is not no surveillance.
14592
11:47:12,640 --> 11:47:17,436
The alternative is worse surveillance
14593
11:47:15,200 --> 11:47:20,480
performed by incompetent government
14594
11:47:17,436 --> 11:47:24,520
bureaucrats using decades old technology
14595
11:47:20,480 --> 11:47:24,520
that does not work properly.
14596
11:47:26,080 --> 11:47:31,040
The critics's response [music] was
14597
11:47:27,680 --> 11:47:32,560
obvious. They told Theo he had built the
14598
11:47:31,040 --> 11:47:36,720
panopticon,
14599
11:47:32,560 --> 11:47:38,800
the architecture of total surveillance.
14600
11:47:36,720 --> 11:47:41,040
A system allowing governments around the
14601
11:47:38,800 --> 11:47:44,000
world to use their citizens information
14602
11:47:41,040 --> 11:47:46,480
to control them, not a system to protect
14603
11:47:44,000 --> 11:47:48,800
them, said the critics.
14604
11:47:46,480 --> 11:47:51,680
Palanteer now operates in dozens of
14605
11:47:48,800 --> 11:47:54,560
countries worldwide. The United States,
14606
11:47:51,680 --> 11:47:57,436
the United Kingdom, Germany, France,
14607
11:47:54,560 --> 11:47:59,596
Australia, and even Japan.
14608
11:47:57,436 --> 11:48:02,640
The company has some controversial
14609
11:47:59,596 --> 11:48:05,596
international clients, some confirmed,
14610
11:48:02,640 --> 11:48:09,116
some alleged, but the total estimated
14611
11:48:05,596 --> 11:48:13,596
value of all global contracts lifetime,
14612
11:48:09,116 --> 11:48:16,400
over $10 billion in contract value.
14613
11:48:13,596 --> 11:48:19,520
Palanteer is Peter Theel's most
14614
11:48:16,400 --> 11:48:22,640
important company. Not because of its
14615
11:48:19,520 --> 11:48:25,040
valuation, though that is substantial.
14616
11:48:22,640 --> 11:48:28,720
Not because of its revenue, though that
14617
11:48:25,040 --> 11:48:31,040
is significant. Palanteer is important
14618
11:48:28,720 --> 11:48:34,000
because it reveals the truth about
14619
11:48:31,040 --> 11:48:36,640
Theo's worldview. It is the bridge
14620
11:48:34,000 --> 11:48:40,320
between his libertarian philosophy and
14621
11:48:36,640 --> 11:48:43,276
his authoritarian reality. He claims to
14622
11:48:40,320 --> 11:48:46,000
want freedom from government control.
14623
11:48:43,276 --> 11:48:47,040
But Palanteer gives governments
14624
11:48:46,000 --> 11:48:49,756
unprecedented [music]
14625
11:48:47,040 --> 11:48:51,520
control over their citizens. The
14626
11:48:49,756 --> 11:48:54,640
resolution of this apparent
14627
11:48:51,520 --> 11:48:58,160
contradiction. Peter the believes in
14628
11:48:54,640 --> 11:49:01,276
freedom for the elite and surveillance
14629
11:48:58,160 --> 11:49:03,520
for everyone else.
14630
11:49:01,276 --> 11:49:06,800
In his vision of the world, there are
14631
11:49:03,520 --> 11:49:08,960
rulers and there are the ruled. There
14632
11:49:06,800 --> 11:49:11,680
are the people who make the decisions
14633
11:49:08,960 --> 11:49:14,240
and the people who are managed.
14634
11:49:11,680 --> 11:49:17,596
Palanteer is the enforcement mechanism
14635
11:49:14,240 --> 11:49:20,880
for that hierarchy. The technology that
14636
11:49:17,596 --> 11:49:23,116
ensures the rulers can see everything.
14637
11:49:20,880 --> 11:49:26,160
the system that makes resistance
14638
11:49:23,116 --> 11:49:29,276
impossible because privacy no longer
14639
11:49:26,160 --> 11:49:32,560
exists. And Peter Theal sits at the
14640
11:49:29,276 --> 11:49:35,680
center of that eye, watching the world,
14641
11:49:32,560 --> 11:49:39,400
seeing everything. The architect of the
14642
11:49:35,680 --> 11:49:39,400
surveillance state.
14643
11:49:41,840 --> 11:49:47,680
In 2016, Peter Theel made an investment
14644
11:49:45,596 --> 11:49:50,880
that every other major technology
14645
11:49:47,680 --> 11:49:53,360
investor avoided.
14646
11:49:50,880 --> 11:49:55,520
While his peers in Silicon Valley were
14647
11:49:53,360 --> 11:49:59,276
contributing millions to the opposing
14648
11:49:55,520 --> 11:50:01,276
campaign, Theel wrote a check for $1.25
14649
11:49:59,276 --> 11:50:03,520
million to Donald Trump's [music]
14650
11:50:01,276 --> 11:50:06,480
presidential campaign.
14651
11:50:03,520 --> 11:50:09,916
This was not ideology. This was
14652
11:50:06,480 --> 11:50:13,040
portfolio diversification.
14653
11:50:09,916 --> 11:50:16,000
Feel has always invested in contrarian
14654
11:50:13,040 --> 11:50:19,520
positions. [music] When everyone zigs,
14655
11:50:16,000 --> 11:50:22,400
he zags. When consensus forms in one
14656
11:50:19,520 --> 11:50:25,840
direction, he looks for asymmetric
14657
11:50:22,400 --> 11:50:27,756
opportunities in the other. The 2006
14658
11:50:25,840 --> 11:50:30,320
donation [music] gave him something
14659
11:50:27,756 --> 11:50:33,136
money usually cannot buy in Silicon
14660
11:50:30,320 --> 11:50:33,840
Valley. Direct access to executive
14661
11:50:33,136 --> 11:50:37,520
[music]
14662
11:50:33,840 --> 11:50:40,000
power. The return on that $1.25 $25
14663
11:50:37,520 --> 11:50:42,640
million investment,
14664
11:50:40,000 --> 11:50:46,080
a seat on the presidential transition
14665
11:50:42,640 --> 11:50:49,276
team, input on federal technology
14666
11:50:46,080 --> 11:50:52,080
policy, direct communication channels to
14667
11:50:49,276 --> 11:50:55,596
the White House, credibility as a
14668
11:50:52,080 --> 11:50:58,240
Washington power broker,
14669
11:50:55,596 --> 11:51:00,000
and most measurably, [music] Palanteer's
14670
11:50:58,240 --> 11:51:03,436
government contracts increased
14671
11:51:00,000 --> 11:51:05,756
substantially during this period.
14672
11:51:03,436 --> 11:51:09,040
But feels most significant political
14673
11:51:05,756 --> 11:51:10,560
investments came in the 2022 midterm
14674
11:51:09,040 --> 11:51:14,320
elections.
14675
11:51:10,560 --> 11:51:17,840
Two candidates, both former employees,
14676
11:51:14,320 --> 11:51:19,756
both running for United States Senate.
14677
11:51:17,840 --> 11:51:22,640
The financial commitment was
14678
11:51:19,756 --> 11:51:25,040
unprecedented in scale.
14679
11:51:22,640 --> 11:51:27,200
Vance had worked at Theel's venture
14680
11:51:25,040 --> 11:51:30,240
capital firm before writing his
14681
11:51:27,200 --> 11:51:32,320
best-selling memoir. Field's total
14682
11:51:30,240 --> 11:51:35,436
financial commitment.
14683
11:51:32,320 --> 11:51:37,200
Direct campaign contribution $15
14684
11:51:35,436 --> 11:51:39,520
million.
14685
11:51:37,200 --> 11:51:43,200
Super PAC expenditures [music]
14686
11:51:39,520 --> 11:51:44,960
$5 million. Combined investment $20
14687
11:51:43,200 --> 11:51:48,160
million.
14688
11:51:44,960 --> 11:51:50,560
This set a record as the largest single
14689
11:51:48,160 --> 11:51:54,080
donor contribution to an individual
14690
11:51:50,560 --> 11:51:57,200
Senate campaign in American history. The
14691
11:51:54,080 --> 11:52:00,880
outcome, Vance won by six percentage
14692
11:51:57,200 --> 11:52:03,680
points. Masters had worked directly for
14693
11:52:00,880 --> 11:52:05,680
Theel as chief operating officer at
14694
11:52:03,680 --> 11:52:07,456
Theel Capital.
14695
11:52:05,680 --> 11:52:09,116
Theel's financial commitment to his
14696
11:52:07,456 --> 11:52:12,160
[music] campaign was a combined
14697
11:52:09,116 --> 11:52:15,436
investment of $20 million, but unlike
14698
11:52:12,160 --> 11:52:16,960
Vance, Masters lost by 5 percentage
14699
11:52:15,436 --> 11:52:20,240
points.
14700
11:52:16,960 --> 11:52:23,116
Theel's total 2022 midterm investment
14701
11:52:20,240 --> 11:52:25,792
was over $40 million in two Senate
14702
11:52:23,116 --> 11:52:27,596
races. Two different candidates that
14703
11:52:25,792 --> 11:52:29,680
[music] would have allowed him to be in
14704
11:52:27,596 --> 11:52:33,040
direct touch with power at different
14705
11:52:29,680 --> 11:52:35,116
chambers and stages. For context, the
14706
11:52:33,040 --> 11:52:38,560
average competitive Senate [music] race
14707
11:52:35,116 --> 11:52:40,856
costs approximately $10 million total.
14708
11:52:38,560 --> 11:52:45,000
Peter Theal invested four times that
14709
11:52:40,856 --> 11:52:45,000
[music] amount on two races.
14710
11:52:45,680 --> 11:52:52,400
It's July 2024. JD Vance is selected as
14711
11:52:50,240 --> 11:52:55,276
the Republican vice presidential
14712
11:52:52,400 --> 11:52:57,916
candidate. From a pure investment
14713
11:52:55,276 --> 11:53:00,880
analysis perspective, this transforms
14714
11:52:57,916 --> 11:53:03,360
the return profile on Theo's $20 million
14715
11:53:00,880 --> 11:53:05,680
commitment. He has considered the
14716
11:53:03,360 --> 11:53:09,596
potential financial implications if this
14717
11:53:05,680 --> 11:53:12,160
ticket wins and he gets access to
14718
11:53:09,596 --> 11:53:15,520
executive branch decisionmaking for 8
14719
11:53:12,160 --> 11:53:18,960
years. influence over federal contract
14720
11:53:15,520 --> 11:53:21,916
allocation across multiple agencies.
14721
11:53:18,960 --> 11:53:26,160
Input on technology regulation affecting
14722
11:53:21,916 --> 11:53:28,016
the portfolio [music] companies.
14723
11:53:26,160 --> 11:53:29,840
If we consider what's the estimated
14724
11:53:28,016 --> 11:53:32,480
[music] return on investment for
14725
11:53:29,840 --> 11:53:35,756
Palanteer's government business, what we
14726
11:53:32,480 --> 11:53:38,960
see is current annual government revenue
14727
11:53:35,756 --> 11:53:41,680
of $1.5 billion.
14728
11:53:38,960 --> 11:53:44,960
potential additional contract value over
14729
11:53:41,680 --> 11:53:47,960
eight years conservatively 5 to10
14730
11:53:44,960 --> 11:53:47,960
billion
14731
11:53:48,000 --> 11:53:54,640
and other defense companies in the
14732
11:53:51,040 --> 11:53:56,320
network potential 3 to5 billion in
14733
11:53:54,640 --> 11:53:58,800
contracts
14734
11:53:56,320 --> 11:54:01,436
regulatory treatment of cryptocurrency
14735
11:53:58,800 --> 11:54:05,320
holdings value potentially in [music]
14736
11:54:01,436 --> 11:54:05,320
tens of billions.
14737
11:54:07,040 --> 11:54:13,116
The theoretical return of those 20
14738
11:54:09,596 --> 11:54:16,480
million invested is potentially 15 to 20
14739
11:54:13,116 --> 11:54:18,880
billion captured across the portfolio.
14740
11:54:16,480 --> 11:54:23,200
That represents [music] a potential of
14741
11:54:18,880 --> 11:54:25,200
750 to 1,000 times return. By
14742
11:54:23,200 --> 11:54:28,800
comparison, Theel's Facebook [music]
14743
11:54:25,200 --> 11:54:31,276
investment returned 2,000 times.
14744
11:54:28,800 --> 11:54:36,640
To sum it up, the complete political
14745
11:54:31,276 --> 11:54:38,960
spending of the from 2016 to 2022 is 70
14746
11:54:36,640 --> 11:54:41,520
to $80 million.
14747
11:54:38,960 --> 11:54:44,400
For context, Amazon spends 20 [music]
14748
11:54:41,520 --> 11:54:47,436
million annually on lobbying. Meta
14749
11:54:44,400 --> 11:54:49,276
spends 20 million annual on lobbying.
14750
11:54:47,436 --> 11:54:52,560
Google spends 12 [music] million
14751
11:54:49,276 --> 11:54:55,276
annually on lobbying. Field's approach
14752
11:54:52,560 --> 11:54:57,680
is different. Rather than ongoing
14753
11:54:55,276 --> 11:55:00,160
lobbying expenditures, he makes
14754
11:54:57,680 --> 11:55:00,160
concentrated1095558
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