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Would you like to inspect the original subtitles? These are the user uploaded subtitles that are being translated: 1 00:01:03,840 --> 00:01:08,880 Most people see this and think culture. 2 00:01:06,799 --> 00:01:11,280 They see a charming eco-friendly 3 00:01:08,880 --> 00:01:14,080 tradition. 4 00:01:11,280 --> 00:01:16,560 But look closer. This isn't just people 5 00:01:14,080 --> 00:01:19,040 liking to pedal. What you were watching 6 00:01:16,560 --> 00:01:20,880 is a highfrequency, low friction 7 00:01:19,040 --> 00:01:22,720 economic machine. 8 00:01:20,880 --> 00:01:24,720 >> Ultimately, private car ownership is 9 00:01:22,720 --> 00:01:26,320 going to become obsolete. Cities are 10 00:01:24,720 --> 00:01:28,000 building for pedestrians. They're 11 00:01:26,320 --> 00:01:31,439 building for cycling. They're building 12 00:01:28,000 --> 00:01:34,079 for livability, not for cars. 13 00:01:31,439 --> 00:01:38,040 >> The bike economy, the multi-billion 14 00:01:34,079 --> 00:01:38,040 dollar system of Amsterdam. 15 00:01:39,200 --> 00:01:46,000 In Amsterdam, the bicycle isn't a toy. 16 00:01:42,640 --> 00:01:48,880 It is a critical urban infrastructure. 17 00:01:46,000 --> 00:01:53,320 If this system failed today, the city's 18 00:01:48,880 --> 00:01:53,320 economy would collapse tomorrow. 19 00:01:53,439 --> 00:01:58,560 For decades, the world has viewed 20 00:01:55,360 --> 00:02:01,840 Amsterdam through a romantic lens. But 21 00:01:58,560 --> 00:02:04,399 cities don't run on vibes. They run on 22 00:02:01,840 --> 00:02:06,320 systems. And when a system moves 23 00:02:04,399 --> 00:02:09,280 hundreds of thousands of people every 24 00:02:06,320 --> 00:02:12,480 single day, it stops being a choice and 25 00:02:09,280 --> 00:02:15,280 starts demanding three things. space, 26 00:02:12,480 --> 00:02:17,520 rules, and capital. 27 00:02:15,280 --> 00:02:19,680 Research shows that the cycling system 28 00:02:17,520 --> 00:02:23,360 contributes benefits equivalent to 29 00:02:19,680 --> 00:02:26,239 roughly 3% of the Netherlands GDP. 30 00:02:23,360 --> 00:02:29,120 This isn't just green energy. It's hard 31 00:02:26,239 --> 00:02:31,680 cash saved in public health, reduced 32 00:02:29,120 --> 00:02:34,480 absenteeism at work, and most 33 00:02:31,680 --> 00:02:37,200 importantly, unlocked productivity. 34 00:02:34,480 --> 00:02:39,519 Every person on a bike is a person who 35 00:02:37,200 --> 00:02:42,480 isn't taking up 12 square meters of 36 00:02:39,519 --> 00:02:45,440 public space with a car. That freed up 37 00:02:42,480 --> 00:02:48,879 space allows for high value real estate, 38 00:02:45,440 --> 00:02:53,959 commerce, and tourism. In economics, we 39 00:02:48,879 --> 00:02:53,959 call this optimization of land use. 40 00:02:55,440 --> 00:03:01,360 But success created a crisis. By the 41 00:02:58,800 --> 00:03:04,080 2010s, [music] Amsterdam had a clutter 42 00:03:01,360 --> 00:03:07,332 problem. Thousands of bikes were choking 43 00:03:04,080 --> 00:03:09,120 the streets. The solution, one of the 44 00:03:07,332 --> 00:03:12,480 [music] most expensive and daring 45 00:03:09,120 --> 00:03:16,159 engineering projects in the city. They 46 00:03:12,480 --> 00:03:18,319 built a cathedral for 7,000 bicycles 47 00:03:16,159 --> 00:03:20,959 under the water. 48 00:03:18,319 --> 00:03:22,560 It cost millions. From a traditional 49 00:03:20,959 --> 00:03:25,840 linear perspective, [music] spending 50 00:03:22,560 --> 00:03:28,480 that much on free parking seems insane. 51 00:03:25,840 --> 00:03:30,560 But from a circular economy perspective, 52 00:03:28,480 --> 00:03:34,400 a model where Amsterdam is a global 53 00:03:30,560 --> 00:03:37,280 leader with 30.6% circularity rate, it 54 00:03:34,400 --> 00:03:38,799 was a mandatory investment. As we see in 55 00:03:37,280 --> 00:03:41,760 the latest urban governance [music] 56 00:03:38,799 --> 00:03:44,799 reports, planning isn't an option here. 57 00:03:41,760 --> 00:03:47,440 It's the only way to exist. 58 00:03:44,799 --> 00:03:50,560 In this documentary, we are going beyond 59 00:03:47,440 --> 00:03:53,680 the postcard. We will travel back to 60 00:03:50,560 --> 00:03:56,879 1965 to see why the first sharing 61 00:03:53,680 --> 00:03:59,519 economy experiment failed. We will use 62 00:03:56,879 --> 00:04:02,560 scientific GPS data to track the shadow 63 00:03:59,519 --> 00:04:05,360 economy of the 80,000 bikes stolen every 64 00:04:02,560 --> 00:04:07,840 year. And we will explore [music] how 65 00:04:05,360 --> 00:04:10,867 Amsterdam is using the bicycle to become 66 00:04:07,840 --> 00:04:14,239 the world's first 100% circular city 67 00:04:10,867 --> 00:04:16,639 [music] by 2050. This is the story of 68 00:04:14,239 --> 00:04:18,239 how a humble machine with two wheels 69 00:04:16,639 --> 00:04:23,000 became [music] the backbone of a 70 00:04:18,239 --> 00:04:23,000 multi-billion dollar urban miracle. 71 00:04:25,680 --> 00:04:31,840 To understand why Amsterdam spends €85 72 00:04:28,639 --> 00:04:34,240 million on underwater parking today, we 73 00:04:31,840 --> 00:04:37,199 have to go back to a time when the city 74 00:04:34,240 --> 00:04:40,520 almost lost its [music] soul to the car, 75 00:04:37,199 --> 00:04:40,520 the 1960s. 76 00:04:44,720 --> 00:04:51,040 As post-war prosperity grew, Amsterdam 77 00:04:47,759 --> 00:04:53,199 was being choked by motor vehicles. 78 00:04:51,040 --> 00:04:55,280 In response, a counterculture group 79 00:04:53,199 --> 00:04:57,840 called the Provos launched what would 80 00:04:55,280 --> 00:04:58,800 become the first bike sharing program in 81 00:04:57,840 --> 00:05:02,000 history, [music] 82 00:04:58,800 --> 00:05:03,680 the Vita Fien Plan or the white bike 83 00:05:02,000 --> 00:05:06,320 plan. 84 00:05:03,680 --> 00:05:10,400 Their proposal was radical and purely 85 00:05:06,320 --> 00:05:12,639 idealistic. Paint 20,000 bicycles white, 86 00:05:10,400 --> 00:05:16,000 leave them unlocked across the city, and 87 00:05:12,639 --> 00:05:18,880 let anyone use them for free. No keys, 88 00:05:16,000 --> 00:05:22,080 no coins, [music] no owners. They viewed 89 00:05:18,880 --> 00:05:25,039 mobility as a public good, as essential 90 00:05:22,080 --> 00:05:28,000 and free as the air we breathe. On 91 00:05:25,039 --> 00:05:31,039 paper, it was a circular economy. Avon 92 00:05:28,000 --> 00:05:33,759 Pletra. In practice, [music] it was a 93 00:05:31,039 --> 00:05:36,720 disaster. Within days, the system 94 00:05:33,759 --> 00:05:38,560 collapsed. Why? Because the provos 95 00:05:36,720 --> 00:05:44,120 ignored a fundamental principle of 96 00:05:38,560 --> 00:05:44,120 economics, the tragedy of the commons. 97 00:06:02,000 --> 00:06:05,000 for 98 00:06:19,600 --> 00:06:24,400 without ownership or registration. 99 00:06:21,759 --> 00:06:27,440 Public property quickly became nobody's 100 00:06:24,400 --> 00:06:29,840 property. In an unregulated system with 101 00:06:27,440 --> 00:06:32,080 zero entry cost, the incentive to 102 00:06:29,840 --> 00:06:34,479 maintain the [music] asset disappears. 103 00:06:32,080 --> 00:06:36,800 Without locks or registration, public 104 00:06:34,479 --> 00:06:39,360 property quickly became nobody's [music] 105 00:06:36,800 --> 00:06:42,319 property. The police confiscated the 106 00:06:39,360 --> 00:06:44,080 bikes because they invited theft and the 107 00:06:42,319 --> 00:06:46,104 citizens driven by individual 108 00:06:44,080 --> 00:06:50,240 rationalism either took them home 109 00:06:46,104 --> 00:06:52,960 [music] or threw them into the canals. 110 00:06:50,240 --> 00:06:54,720 The lesson was harsh. You cannot have a 111 00:06:52,960 --> 00:06:57,360 massive urban transit system [music] 112 00:06:54,720 --> 00:07:01,080 based solely on romanticism. 113 00:06:57,360 --> 00:07:01,080 You need governance. 114 00:07:02,720 --> 00:07:08,800 However, the white bikes planted a seed. 115 00:07:05,759 --> 00:07:10,560 It shifted the economic debate. The city 116 00:07:08,800 --> 00:07:12,800 realized that if they didn't want to 117 00:07:10,560 --> 00:07:15,440 spend billions on highways like Los 118 00:07:12,800 --> 00:07:18,160 Angeles or London, they had to invest in 119 00:07:15,440 --> 00:07:20,479 a different kind of capital. Transition 120 00:07:18,160 --> 00:07:23,520 requires not just technology but a 121 00:07:20,479 --> 00:07:25,280 change in urban metabolism. 122 00:07:23,520 --> 00:07:27,680 The failure of the white [music] bikes 123 00:07:25,280 --> 00:07:30,000 taught Amsterdam that the bicycle had to 124 00:07:27,680 --> 00:07:33,120 be integrated into the formal economy of 125 00:07:30,000 --> 00:07:36,880 the city, not as a rebel symbol, but as 126 00:07:33,120 --> 00:07:38,880 a regulated, taxed and planned asset. 127 00:07:36,880 --> 00:07:41,599 Today, the free spirit of the white 128 00:07:38,880 --> 00:07:44,880 bikes only survives in one place, the 129 00:07:41,599 --> 00:07:46,639 Hoga Valu National Park. But in the 130 00:07:44,880 --> 00:07:49,039 city, the white bike [music] has been 131 00:07:46,639 --> 00:07:51,520 replaced by a sophisticated capital 132 00:07:49,039 --> 00:07:54,000 incentive model. [music] We no longer 133 00:07:51,520 --> 00:07:57,280 trust in the goodness of the user. We 134 00:07:54,000 --> 00:07:59,599 trust in incentives. We move the tragedy 135 00:07:57,280 --> 00:08:01,680 of the commons to a system of managed 136 00:07:59,599 --> 00:08:03,840 common pool resources. [music] 137 00:08:01,680 --> 00:08:06,720 In economics, success can be as 138 00:08:03,840 --> 00:08:09,759 disruptive as failure. By the late 139 00:08:06,720 --> 00:08:12,160 2010s, Amsterdam was a victim of its own 140 00:08:09,759 --> 00:08:14,720 efficiency. With nearly 1 million 141 00:08:12,160 --> 00:08:17,360 bicycles in the city, the urban surface 142 00:08:14,720 --> 00:08:19,919 had reached a breaking point. Every 143 00:08:17,360 --> 00:08:23,120 bridge, railing, and sidewalk was 144 00:08:19,919 --> 00:08:25,680 occupied by idle metal. 145 00:08:23,120 --> 00:08:26,879 This wasn't just an aesthetic grievance. 146 00:08:25,680 --> 00:08:29,919 It was an economic [music] 147 00:08:26,879 --> 00:08:32,000 bottleneck. Thousands of parked bikes 148 00:08:29,919 --> 00:08:34,240 were clogging the city's arteries, 149 00:08:32,000 --> 00:08:37,200 slowing down 200,000 daily [music] 150 00:08:34,240 --> 00:08:39,360 commuters at Central Station. In one of 151 00:08:37,200 --> 00:08:41,919 the world's most expensive real estate 152 00:08:39,360 --> 00:08:43,839 markets, free surface parking is a 153 00:08:41,919 --> 00:08:46,560 luxury [music] that a functional city 154 00:08:43,839 --> 00:08:49,901 cannot afford. The opportunity cost of 155 00:08:46,560 --> 00:08:52,160 that space was becoming too high. To 156 00:08:49,901 --> 00:08:54,399 [music] solve this, Amsterdam launched 157 00:08:52,160 --> 00:08:57,040 the entre, a massive urban 158 00:08:54,399 --> 00:09:00,000 reconfiguration project. The crown 159 00:08:57,040 --> 00:09:01,680 jewel, the open haven underwater 160 00:09:00,000 --> 00:09:04,560 parking. 161 00:09:01,680 --> 00:09:07,839 Consider that figure. Spending €60 162 00:09:04,560 --> 00:09:09,360 million just to store 7,000 bicycles 163 00:09:07,839 --> 00:09:11,760 underwater. 164 00:09:09,360 --> 00:09:14,880 To a traditional accountant, this looks 165 00:09:11,760 --> 00:09:17,600 like a massive sunk cost. But to an 166 00:09:14,880 --> 00:09:21,279 urban economist, it's a master stroke of 167 00:09:17,600 --> 00:09:23,600 asset management. By moving 7,000 bikes 168 00:09:21,279 --> 00:09:26,480 beneath the water, the city performed 169 00:09:23,600 --> 00:09:28,399 open heart surgery on its central hub. 170 00:09:26,480 --> 00:09:31,760 They reclaimed the surface, restoring 171 00:09:28,399 --> 00:09:34,080 the landscape to its 1900's aesthetic. 172 00:09:31,760 --> 00:09:37,279 This isn't just about beauty. It's about 173 00:09:34,080 --> 00:09:39,600 maximizing pedestrian flow. A station 174 00:09:37,279 --> 00:09:42,160 that breathes and flows is a station 175 00:09:39,600 --> 00:09:45,279 that generates higher economic value for 176 00:09:42,160 --> 00:09:48,240 the surrounding businesses. However, an 177 00:09:45,279 --> 00:09:50,160 85 million euro asset must be managed 178 00:09:48,240 --> 00:09:53,040 like a high performance logistics 179 00:09:50,160 --> 00:09:55,839 center. You cannot allow zombie bikes to 180 00:09:53,040 --> 00:09:57,839 occupy these slots indefinitely. 181 00:09:55,839 --> 00:10:01,360 This is where the incentive structure 182 00:09:57,839 --> 00:10:04,720 comes into play. The primary goal isn't 183 00:10:01,360 --> 00:10:07,279 profit, it's turnover. By offering the 184 00:10:04,720 --> 00:10:10,000 first 24 hours for free, the city 185 00:10:07,279 --> 00:10:12,880 subsidizes the daily [music] workforce. 186 00:10:10,000 --> 00:10:15,200 But by charging a daily fee thereafter, 187 00:10:12,880 --> 00:10:18,160 they penalize long-term storage and 188 00:10:15,200 --> 00:10:20,399 abandonment. Using advanced optical 189 00:10:18,160 --> 00:10:22,399 sensors, the city monitors idle 190 00:10:20,399 --> 00:10:25,600 inventory in real time, [music] 191 00:10:22,399 --> 00:10:27,519 ensuring that these 7,000 slots remain a 192 00:10:25,600 --> 00:10:31,079 liquid asset for those who keep the 193 00:10:27,519 --> 00:10:31,079 economy moving. 194 00:10:31,120 --> 00:10:36,279 Finally, we must consider the cost of 195 00:10:33,279 --> 00:10:36,279 friction. 196 00:10:40,640 --> 00:10:43,640 Transport. 197 00:11:11,760 --> 00:11:16,560 In transport economics, every second 198 00:11:14,000 --> 00:11:18,880 lost in a transfer is a loss in human 199 00:11:16,560 --> 00:11:20,959 capital and productivity. 200 00:11:18,880 --> 00:11:22,880 This underwater facility connects 201 00:11:20,959 --> 00:11:26,000 directly to the metro [music] and train 202 00:11:22,880 --> 00:11:27,680 platforms. A commuter can transition 203 00:11:26,000 --> 00:11:30,000 from their bicycle [music] to their 204 00:11:27,680 --> 00:11:32,560 train seat in less than 2 minutes, 205 00:11:30,000 --> 00:11:33,519 shielded from the elements. This level 206 00:11:32,560 --> 00:11:35,519 of intermodel [music] 207 00:11:33,519 --> 00:11:38,000 synergy is exactly what makes 208 00:11:35,519 --> 00:11:41,279 Amsterdam's circular economy, currently 209 00:11:38,000 --> 00:11:44,079 at a record 30.6% [music] circularity 210 00:11:41,279 --> 00:11:48,040 rate, a functional reality rather than 211 00:11:44,079 --> 00:11:48,040 just a policy goal. 212 00:12:10,800 --> 00:12:15,360 But this transition to a highly 213 00:12:12,639 --> 00:12:17,440 regulated system created its own set of 214 00:12:15,360 --> 00:12:19,839 problems. [music] Because when you turn 215 00:12:17,440 --> 00:12:22,720 a bicycle into a valuable economic 216 00:12:19,839 --> 00:12:26,000 asset, you create something else. A 217 00:12:22,720 --> 00:12:28,399 black market. [music] In Amsterdam, data 218 00:12:26,000 --> 00:12:31,519 doesn't tell the whole story. While 219 00:12:28,399 --> 00:12:35,040 police record 11,000 thefts a year, the 220 00:12:31,519 --> 00:12:37,920 reality is closer to 80,000. 221 00:12:35,040 --> 00:12:40,560 Most citizens don't report it. Cost of 222 00:12:37,920 --> 00:12:42,800 time is higher than the bike's value. 223 00:12:40,560 --> 00:12:45,040 This creates a massive shadow market 224 00:12:42,800 --> 00:12:48,160 operating entirely outside the official 225 00:12:45,040 --> 00:12:51,279 GDP. Forget the myth of international 226 00:12:48,160 --> 00:12:54,959 bike smuggling rings. 227 00:12:51,279 --> 00:12:57,120 A 2023 study tracking 100 bikes proved 228 00:12:54,959 --> 00:13:00,240 that stolen assets rarely leave the 229 00:12:57,120 --> 00:13:02,959 city. Instead, they feed a shadow 230 00:13:00,240 --> 00:13:05,120 circular economy. Your stolen bike is 231 00:13:02,959 --> 00:13:07,600 sold to a street dealer and then bought 232 00:13:05,120 --> 00:13:08,629 by your neighbor. It's a localized, 233 00:13:07,600 --> 00:13:08,720 untaxed, and 234 00:13:08,629 --> 00:13:12,399 >> [music] 235 00:13:08,720 --> 00:13:14,560 >> illegal closed loop. 236 00:13:12,399 --> 00:13:17,120 High theft risk creates a market 237 00:13:14,560 --> 00:13:19,519 distortion. If you expect your bike to 238 00:13:17,120 --> 00:13:23,279 be stolen within months, you don't buy 239 00:13:19,519 --> 00:13:25,680 quality, you buy junk. This beta bike 240 00:13:23,279 --> 00:13:28,320 equilibrium keeps the city's transport 241 00:13:25,680 --> 00:13:30,240 fleet low quality and forces owners to 242 00:13:28,320 --> 00:13:32,280 spend more on locks than the bikes 243 00:13:30,240 --> 00:13:32,280 themselves. [music] 244 00:13:32,320 --> 00:13:37,440 These aren't victimless crimes. They are 245 00:13:35,040 --> 00:13:41,279 negative externalities that drain city 246 00:13:37,440 --> 00:13:44,240 resources. Amsterdam's answer, the Fiat 247 00:13:41,279 --> 00:13:46,720 depot. Since the city couldn't stop the 248 00:13:44,240 --> 00:13:49,040 theft, it decided to manage the orphaned 249 00:13:46,720 --> 00:13:51,680 assets. Because in a circular [music] 250 00:13:49,040 --> 00:13:53,360 city, even a stolen bike is a resource 251 00:13:51,680 --> 00:13:57,000 that must be managed to maintain [music] 252 00:13:53,360 --> 00:13:57,000 the urban metabolism. 253 00:13:57,440 --> 00:14:01,760 In a city with more bicycles than 254 00:13:59,600 --> 00:14:03,440 people, orphaned assets are an 255 00:14:01,760 --> 00:14:05,360 inevitability. 256 00:14:03,440 --> 00:14:08,399 Every year, thousands of bikes are 257 00:14:05,360 --> 00:14:11,040 simply left behind. In economic terms, 258 00:14:08,399 --> 00:14:13,680 this is dead capital. They occupy 259 00:14:11,040 --> 00:14:15,680 valuable public space, provide zero 260 00:14:13,680 --> 00:14:17,199 utility, and degrade the urban 261 00:14:15,680 --> 00:14:19,120 landscape. 262 00:14:17,199 --> 00:14:21,600 According to official Amsterdam 263 00:14:19,120 --> 00:14:24,079 regulations, the city must intervene 264 00:14:21,600 --> 00:14:26,240 when private property interferes with 265 00:14:24,079 --> 00:14:28,800 public efficiency. 266 00:14:26,240 --> 00:14:31,680 Whether is an improperly parked bike 267 00:14:28,800 --> 00:14:33,839 blocking an emergency exit or a wreck 268 00:14:31,680 --> 00:14:36,000 that is no longer functional, the 269 00:14:33,839 --> 00:14:39,920 municipality acts as the ultimate 270 00:14:36,000 --> 00:14:42,720 enforcer of spatial order. 271 00:14:39,920 --> 00:14:46,320 All seized bicycles are transported to a 272 00:14:42,720 --> 00:14:48,560 central facility, the Fiat's depot. This 273 00:14:46,320 --> 00:14:51,680 is a logistical powerhouse that manages 274 00:14:48,560 --> 00:14:54,560 the city's lost capital. This isn't just 275 00:14:51,680 --> 00:14:58,160 a pound. It's a sorting facility for the 276 00:14:54,560 --> 00:15:00,160 city's metal metabolism, the retrieval. 277 00:14:58,160 --> 00:15:04,320 Owners have around 6 weeks to claim 278 00:15:00,160 --> 00:15:06,240 their bike for a fee, approximately €25. 279 00:15:04,320 --> 00:15:08,639 This fee doesn't cover the full 280 00:15:06,240 --> 00:15:10,639 operational cost, but it serves as a 281 00:15:08,639 --> 00:15:13,440 user pays tax to [music] discourage 282 00:15:10,639 --> 00:15:15,920 abandonment. If your bicycle was removed 283 00:15:13,440 --> 00:15:18,800 from a city parking facility, you will 284 00:15:15,920 --> 00:15:23,279 also pay €33.75 285 00:15:18,800 --> 00:15:26,480 parking cost. The sorting only about 25% 286 00:15:23,279 --> 00:15:29,360 of bikes are ever reclaimed. The rest 287 00:15:26,480 --> 00:15:31,440 they are classified as waste or asset. 288 00:15:29,360 --> 00:15:36,160 Here is where the circular economy 289 00:15:31,440 --> 00:15:38,959 strategy 2020 to 2025 becomes tangible. 290 00:15:36,160 --> 00:15:43,920 Amsterdam aims to reduce the use of new 291 00:15:38,959 --> 00:15:47,279 raw materials by 50% by 2030. The Fiat's 292 00:15:43,920 --> 00:15:48,800 depot doesn't just scrap everything. 293 00:15:47,279 --> 00:15:51,040 Refurbishment. 294 00:15:48,800 --> 00:15:53,839 Bikes in decent condition are sold to 295 00:15:51,040 --> 00:15:56,320 social enterprises or secondhand shops. 296 00:15:53,839 --> 00:15:58,320 They are recirculated into the economy 297 00:15:56,320 --> 00:16:00,720 at a low price point, providing 298 00:15:58,320 --> 00:16:02,480 affordable mobility for lowincome 299 00:16:00,720 --> 00:16:04,079 residents. 300 00:16:02,480 --> 00:16:06,480 Education. 301 00:16:04,079 --> 00:16:09,120 Many are used in vocational training 302 00:16:06,480 --> 00:16:11,759 programs, turning junk, into a teaching 303 00:16:09,120 --> 00:16:14,800 tool for future mechanics. Raw 304 00:16:11,759 --> 00:16:17,680 materials, the unsalvageable ones, are 305 00:16:14,800 --> 00:16:20,880 sold as highquality scrap metal, feeding 306 00:16:17,680 --> 00:16:22,800 back into the industrial cycle. 307 00:16:20,880 --> 00:16:26,240 What we see here is a complete life 308 00:16:22,800 --> 00:16:28,079 cycle management of a transport mode. 309 00:16:26,240 --> 00:16:30,079 The biggest challenge for circular 310 00:16:28,079 --> 00:16:32,720 cities is the lack of effective 311 00:16:30,079 --> 00:16:34,880 governance mechanisms. Amsterdam 312 00:16:32,720 --> 00:16:37,440 succeeds because it treats the bicycle 313 00:16:34,880 --> 00:16:39,759 as a public utility. From the 314 00:16:37,440 --> 00:16:42,399 multi-million euro investment under the 315 00:16:39,759 --> 00:16:44,240 water to the scrap metal in the harbor, 316 00:16:42,399 --> 00:16:48,920 the city manages the entire 317 00:16:44,240 --> 00:16:48,920 cradletograve cycle of the bicycle. 318 00:16:50,800 --> 00:16:55,360 Amsterdam is no longer just building 319 00:16:52,959 --> 00:16:58,959 bike lanes. It is building a new 320 00:16:55,360 --> 00:17:02,240 economic DNA. The city has set a target 321 00:16:58,959 --> 00:17:07,559 that many economists call impossible to 322 00:17:02,240 --> 00:17:07,559 be 100% circular by 2050. 323 00:17:08,480 --> 00:17:13,120 This means that by midentury, [music] 324 00:17:10,559 --> 00:17:15,760 every gram of steel in a bicycle and 325 00:17:13,120 --> 00:17:17,919 every stone in a bridge must stay within 326 00:17:15,760 --> 00:17:20,720 the economic loop. 327 00:17:17,919 --> 00:17:23,919 The take, make, waste model will be 328 00:17:20,720 --> 00:17:26,720 extinct. For Amsterdam, the bicycle is 329 00:17:23,919 --> 00:17:29,760 the alpha product. The test case for how 330 00:17:26,720 --> 00:17:33,039 a city can move, consume, and recycle 331 00:17:29,760 --> 00:17:36,240 without depleting the planet's capital. 332 00:17:33,039 --> 00:17:38,480 To reach 100% circularity, the concept 333 00:17:36,240 --> 00:17:41,760 of private ownership is being challenged 334 00:17:38,480 --> 00:17:44,400 by a more efficient model, product as a 335 00:17:41,760 --> 00:17:46,480 service. You don't buy the bike, you 336 00:17:44,400 --> 00:17:48,320 rent the mobility. 337 00:17:46,480 --> 00:17:49,919 So we talk a lot about ownership as a 338 00:17:48,320 --> 00:17:52,960 service, but it's this idea of, you 339 00:17:49,919 --> 00:17:55,360 know, something as a service. So in our 340 00:17:52,960 --> 00:17:57,360 case, bike as a service. It's all of the 341 00:17:55,360 --> 00:17:58,960 benefits of ownership, but none of the 342 00:17:57,360 --> 00:18:01,039 drawbacks. So none of having to deal 343 00:17:58,960 --> 00:18:02,640 with the maintenance or or any of the 344 00:18:01,039 --> 00:18:03,600 things that come with actually owning 345 00:18:02,640 --> 00:18:05,919 something. 346 00:18:03,600 --> 00:18:08,880 >> Economically, this aligns the incentives 347 00:18:05,919 --> 00:18:11,679 of the producer and the consumer. If the 348 00:18:08,880 --> 00:18:14,400 bike breaks, it's the company's problem, 349 00:18:11,679 --> 00:18:16,160 not yours. by centralizing all of that 350 00:18:14,400 --> 00:18:17,679 maintenance obviously we cut cost 351 00:18:16,160 --> 00:18:20,320 significantly [music] we cut waste 352 00:18:17,679 --> 00:18:23,120 significantly um but for the individual 353 00:18:20,320 --> 00:18:24,960 user um they have nothing to worry about 354 00:18:23,120 --> 00:18:26,559 you know as a subscriber you get all of 355 00:18:24,960 --> 00:18:28,480 your maintenance so we come and do 356 00:18:26,559 --> 00:18:30,480 preventative maintenance so first of all 357 00:18:28,480 --> 00:18:32,640 that obviously reduced the cost um 358 00:18:30,480 --> 00:18:34,640 overall not so much to the end user but 359 00:18:32,640 --> 00:18:36,720 the cost of the business um that 360 00:18:34,640 --> 00:18:39,600 prevents breakdowns and things like that 361 00:18:36,720 --> 00:18:42,480 but in the end if you think about um the 362 00:18:39,600 --> 00:18:44,000 cost of time the cost of effort um maybe 363 00:18:42,480 --> 00:18:45,919 you don't even know how to maintain your 364 00:18:44,000 --> 00:18:47,679 own bike. Um, having a service that does 365 00:18:45,919 --> 00:18:48,960 all of that for you is just a a matter 366 00:18:47,679 --> 00:18:51,600 of convenience. 367 00:18:48,960 --> 00:18:54,640 >> This forces manufacturers to design for 368 00:18:51,600 --> 00:18:57,600 durability and modularity, the core 369 00:18:54,640 --> 00:18:59,840 pillars of this circular economy. When 370 00:18:57,600 --> 00:19:01,919 the city manages the flow and private 371 00:18:59,840 --> 00:19:04,880 companies manage the maintenance, the 372 00:19:01,919 --> 00:19:07,840 shadow economy of theft we saw in act 373 00:19:04,880 --> 00:19:09,360 three begins to shrink. So, if you 374 00:19:07,840 --> 00:19:10,880 subscribe to a bike from Clover and your 375 00:19:09,360 --> 00:19:12,400 bike gets stolen, first of all, we 376 00:19:10,880 --> 00:19:14,559 actually probably will notice that it 377 00:19:12,400 --> 00:19:16,960 got stolen, maybe even before you did, 378 00:19:14,559 --> 00:19:19,120 because we have GPS on all the bikes. 379 00:19:16,960 --> 00:19:21,200 Um, but if it does get stolen, you use 380 00:19:19,120 --> 00:19:22,559 our WhatsApp chat. You basically send us 381 00:19:21,200 --> 00:19:25,200 a message and we come and bring you a 382 00:19:22,559 --> 00:19:27,679 new bike immediately. Why steal a bike 383 00:19:25,200 --> 00:19:29,919 that is tracked, branded, and has no 384 00:19:27,679 --> 00:19:32,400 resale value in a subscription-based 385 00:19:29,919 --> 00:19:34,080 market? 386 00:19:32,400 --> 00:19:36,640 So, what is the final return on 387 00:19:34,080 --> 00:19:40,400 investment? Let's look at the triple 388 00:19:36,640 --> 00:19:42,799 bottom line. Public health. By avoiding 389 00:19:40,400 --> 00:19:44,400 11,000 deaths annually through active 390 00:19:42,799 --> 00:19:47,528 transport, [music] the Dutch economy 391 00:19:44,400 --> 00:19:48,880 saves 19 billion in healthcare costs. 392 00:19:47,528 --> 00:19:52,320 [music] 393 00:19:48,880 --> 00:19:54,880 Urban density. By utilizing underwater 394 00:19:52,320 --> 00:19:57,200 parking and vertical depots, Amsterdam 395 00:19:54,880 --> 00:19:59,120 maintains a population density that 396 00:19:57,200 --> 00:20:01,600 would be impossible with cars, [music] 397 00:19:59,120 --> 00:20:03,280 keeping real estate productivity at peak 398 00:20:01,600 --> 00:20:06,000 levels. 399 00:20:03,280 --> 00:20:08,559 resource independence. By reclaiming 400 00:20:06,000 --> 00:20:11,200 metal from the fiat depot, the city 401 00:20:08,559 --> 00:20:13,919 insulates itself from global commodity 402 00:20:11,200 --> 00:20:17,120 price shocks. This is a sustainable 403 00:20:13,919 --> 00:20:19,039 urban metabolism. The city isn't just a 404 00:20:17,120 --> 00:20:21,520 place where people live. It's a [music] 405 00:20:19,039 --> 00:20:24,320 living organism that processes resources 406 00:20:21,520 --> 00:20:26,559 with maximum efficiency. 407 00:20:24,320 --> 00:20:28,880 Amsterdam's success has sent a clear 408 00:20:26,559 --> 00:20:31,200 message to the rest of the continent. 409 00:20:28,880 --> 00:20:34,000 Spatial efficiency is the only way 410 00:20:31,200 --> 00:20:36,480 forward for the modern metropolis. 411 00:20:34,000 --> 00:20:38,480 Across Europe, the bicycle has moved 412 00:20:36,480 --> 00:20:40,584 from being a leisure tool to a 413 00:20:38,480 --> 00:20:42,799 cornerstone of urban recovery and 414 00:20:40,584 --> 00:20:45,520 [music] economic resilience. 415 00:20:42,799 --> 00:20:48,559 In Paris, a city once defined by its 416 00:20:45,520 --> 00:20:51,120 congestion, the plan is investing 417 00:20:48,559 --> 00:20:54,559 hundreds of millions to become 100% 418 00:20:51,120 --> 00:20:56,880 cyclable. In Barcelona, the super blocks 419 00:20:54,559 --> 00:21:01,280 are reclaiming entire intersections from 420 00:20:56,880 --> 00:21:02,880 cars to create human centric lungs. 421 00:21:01,280 --> 00:21:06,480 These aren't [music] just environmental 422 00:21:02,880 --> 00:21:08,880 projects. They are market corrections. 423 00:21:06,480 --> 00:21:11,360 The cities are betting that a quieter, 424 00:21:08,880 --> 00:21:13,760 cleaner, and more agile urban center 425 00:21:11,360 --> 00:21:16,720 will attract more talent, more tourism, 426 00:21:13,760 --> 00:21:19,280 and higher property values. 427 00:21:16,720 --> 00:21:21,760 From the cycle superighways of London to 428 00:21:19,280 --> 00:21:24,799 the industrial hubs of Germany, the 429 00:21:21,760 --> 00:21:28,799 economic logic is consistent. Replacing 430 00:21:24,799 --> 00:21:31,039 a 1 1/2 ton vehicle with a 15 kg machine 431 00:21:28,799 --> 00:21:32,984 reduces the cost of maintenance for the 432 00:21:31,039 --> 00:21:35,360 city and increases the productivity 433 00:21:32,984 --> 00:21:37,520 [music] of the citizen. 434 00:21:35,360 --> 00:21:39,840 But while northern capitals have the 435 00:21:37,520 --> 00:21:42,640 advantage of decades of infrastructure, 436 00:21:39,840 --> 00:21:44,640 the real test is happening in the south. 437 00:21:42,640 --> 00:21:46,880 In the Mediterranean, where the street 438 00:21:44,640 --> 00:21:49,120 is a social space and the sun is a 439 00:21:46,880 --> 00:21:51,840 constant resource, a new leader is 440 00:21:49,120 --> 00:21:54,320 emerging. A city that has used the 441 00:21:51,840 --> 00:21:58,120 Amsterdam blueprint to transform itself 442 00:21:54,320 --> 00:21:58,120 at record speed. 443 00:22:04,080 --> 00:22:07,080 Foreign 444 00:22:17,440 --> 00:22:20,440 speech. Foreign speech. Foreign speech. 445 00:22:59,445 --> 00:23:03,840 >> [music] 446 00:23:01,280 --> 00:23:07,320 >> If Amsterdam is the blueprint, Valencia 447 00:23:03,840 --> 00:23:07,320 is the laboratory. 448 00:23:09,200 --> 00:23:12,200 Yes. 449 00:23:23,681 --> 00:23:25,701 >> [music] 450 00:23:29,440 --> 00:23:32,840 >> I could as 451 00:23:51,120 --> 00:23:55,200 in less than a decade, this 452 00:23:52,720 --> 00:23:57,679 Mediterranean city has transitioned from 453 00:23:55,200 --> 00:24:01,280 a car ccentric capital to a global 454 00:23:57,679 --> 00:24:01,280 reference [music] in urban metabolism. 455 00:24:23,440 --> 00:24:29,039 Valencia's transformation wasn't a 456 00:24:25,760 --> 00:24:31,200 matter of vibes or romanticism. It was a 457 00:24:29,039 --> 00:24:32,720 calculated investment in spatial 458 00:24:31,200 --> 00:24:34,960 efficiency. 459 00:24:32,720 --> 00:24:36,559 >> I think attracting top global talent 460 00:24:34,960 --> 00:24:38,400 means that you need to have a vibrant, 461 00:24:36,559 --> 00:24:40,480 livable city. And I think most young 462 00:24:38,400 --> 00:24:42,282 people um particularly who are coming 463 00:24:40,480 --> 00:24:44,159 into the workforce now are looking 464 00:24:42,282 --> 00:24:46,640 [music] for ways to get around a city 465 00:24:44,159 --> 00:24:48,880 that doesn't rely on public transit. 466 00:24:46,640 --> 00:24:50,880 They don't want to own a car um because 467 00:24:48,880 --> 00:24:52,480 car ownership is a total burden. Having 468 00:24:50,880 --> 00:24:55,039 to find parking, [music] insurance, cost 469 00:24:52,480 --> 00:24:56,640 of the car, all of that. So having this 470 00:24:55,039 --> 00:24:59,200 accessible infrastructure, cycling 471 00:24:56,640 --> 00:25:00,720 infrastructure specifically, and in a 472 00:24:59,200 --> 00:25:02,720 city like Valencia that, you know, 473 00:25:00,720 --> 00:25:04,640 already has a lot of reasons to attract 474 00:25:02,720 --> 00:25:07,279 top talent, just makes it that much 475 00:25:04,640 --> 00:25:08,880 better. Um, cycling is a preferred way 476 00:25:07,279 --> 00:25:10,640 to get around in Valencia, we're number 477 00:25:08,880 --> 00:25:12,960 seven in the world for cycling to work, 478 00:25:10,640 --> 00:25:15,360 for example. So adding a layer of an 479 00:25:12,960 --> 00:25:17,679 easy subscription ebike service to that 480 00:25:15,360 --> 00:25:19,840 just again attracts even more um top 481 00:25:17,679 --> 00:25:22,880 talent to the city. 482 00:25:19,840 --> 00:25:25,039 By implementing the Anilo Cista, the 483 00:25:22,880 --> 00:25:27,477 city has reclaimed high value public 484 00:25:25,039 --> 00:25:30,159 space to boost local commerce and reduce 485 00:25:27,477 --> 00:25:32,320 [music] the toxic liability of the car. 486 00:25:30,159 --> 00:25:34,080 >> It's important to remember that um often 487 00:25:32,320 --> 00:25:35,760 times with cars, although they can fit 488 00:25:34,080 --> 00:25:37,760 multiple people, most of the time it's 489 00:25:35,760 --> 00:25:39,200 one person per one car. So when we're 490 00:25:37,760 --> 00:25:41,120 asking [music] about, you know, 10 bikes 491 00:25:39,200 --> 00:25:43,520 versus one car, we're essentially saying 492 00:25:41,120 --> 00:25:45,120 10 people versus one person. So we have 493 00:25:43,520 --> 00:25:46,159 a 10x multiplier on essentially 494 00:25:45,120 --> 00:25:47,760 everything that's happening on that 495 00:25:46,159 --> 00:25:49,039 street. Whether that be visits to the 496 00:25:47,760 --> 00:25:50,480 businesses, whether that be transactions 497 00:25:49,039 --> 00:25:52,000 and purchases, [music] everything gets 498 00:25:50,480 --> 00:25:53,440 that 10x multiplier and increases 499 00:25:52,000 --> 00:25:55,919 revenue for the whole street. 500 00:25:53,440 --> 00:25:58,240 >> In economics, this is the optimization 501 00:25:55,919 --> 00:26:00,480 of land use. The same principle that 502 00:25:58,240 --> 00:26:01,360 drove Amsterdam to build under its 503 00:26:00,480 --> 00:26:03,200 canals. 504 00:26:01,360 --> 00:26:05,840 >> If I'm cycling and I pass by, for 505 00:26:03,200 --> 00:26:07,279 example, a bakery, go I [snorts] smell 506 00:26:05,840 --> 00:26:08,559 that bakery, I go, "Oh, you know what? 507 00:26:07,279 --> 00:26:09,279 Maybe I'm going to stop in, try 508 00:26:08,559 --> 00:26:11,200 something [music] one of those 509 00:26:09,279 --> 00:26:12,240 products." Um, you know, essentially 510 00:26:11,200 --> 00:26:13,760 become a patron of that business. 511 00:26:12,240 --> 00:26:15,520 Whereas if I'm passing by in a car, 512 00:26:13,760 --> 00:26:17,520 there's no chance of that happening. And 513 00:26:15,520 --> 00:26:18,960 the other benefit is [music] um car 514 00:26:17,520 --> 00:26:20,720 parking also has this sort of 515 00:26:18,960 --> 00:26:22,480 psychological effect on the streets and 516 00:26:20,720 --> 00:26:24,159 the people that live there. Car parking 517 00:26:22,480 --> 00:26:26,240 makes the space feel a lot more closed 518 00:26:24,159 --> 00:26:27,600 in and a lot more cramped than bike 519 00:26:26,240 --> 00:26:28,880 parking. It keeps the space very nice 520 00:26:27,600 --> 00:26:30,799 and open. 521 00:26:28,880 --> 00:26:33,679 >> Emerging businesses are shifting the 522 00:26:30,799 --> 00:26:35,440 market from ownership to usership. 523 00:26:33,679 --> 00:26:37,200 >> You know, our customers, [music] they 524 00:26:35,440 --> 00:26:39,200 depend on their bikes as a reliable way 525 00:26:37,200 --> 00:26:41,279 to get around. And so we use an 526 00:26:39,200 --> 00:26:43,760 ownership as a service model. [music] So 527 00:26:41,279 --> 00:26:45,840 instead of owning the asset yourself, um 528 00:26:43,760 --> 00:26:47,440 you subscribe to it from us. And we 529 00:26:45,840 --> 00:26:48,720 think that's what customers need in 530 00:26:47,440 --> 00:26:50,400 terms of reliable day-to-day 531 00:26:48,720 --> 00:26:53,039 transportation. If you look at something 532 00:26:50,400 --> 00:26:55,600 like Lime or Valon BC, they will have 533 00:26:53,039 --> 00:26:57,919 that idle asset problem. Um and 534 00:26:55,600 --> 00:27:00,000 certainly ownership obviously the same 535 00:26:57,919 --> 00:27:02,320 thing. But with us, you know, handling 536 00:27:00,000 --> 00:27:03,039 maintenance, battery swapping, theft 537 00:27:02,320 --> 00:27:05,360 protection, [music] 538 00:27:03,039 --> 00:27:07,200 insurance, all of that. Um and yet still 539 00:27:05,360 --> 00:27:09,120 having access to the bike anytime you 540 00:27:07,200 --> 00:27:11,760 want. It's your bike. Subscription 541 00:27:09,120 --> 00:27:13,840 models like Swap Fiats, which already 542 00:27:11,760 --> 00:27:16,640 dominate the Dutch market, are landing 543 00:27:13,840 --> 00:27:18,720 in Valencia. These companies treat the 544 00:27:16,640 --> 00:27:20,799 bike as a service, covering all 545 00:27:18,720 --> 00:27:21,520 maintenance and repairs for a monthly 546 00:27:20,799 --> 00:27:23,200 fee. 547 00:27:21,520 --> 00:27:25,279 >> Ownership isn't necessarily a bad 548 00:27:23,200 --> 00:27:27,039 investment, but I think um most 549 00:27:25,279 --> 00:27:28,400 consumers are moving away from owning 550 00:27:27,039 --> 00:27:30,159 things. You know, people are leasing 551 00:27:28,400 --> 00:27:32,480 their cars, people are, you know, more 552 00:27:30,159 --> 00:27:34,320 and more renting their homes. [music] Um 553 00:27:32,480 --> 00:27:36,320 so for us, a subscription model made 554 00:27:34,320 --> 00:27:38,480 sense. That and affordability. This 555 00:27:36,320 --> 00:27:40,960 eliminates the fear of theft and 556 00:27:38,480 --> 00:27:43,120 long-term depreciation, turning the 557 00:27:40,960 --> 00:27:46,159 bicycle into a predictable, low- 558 00:27:43,120 --> 00:27:49,279 friction utility for the modern worker. 559 00:27:46,159 --> 00:27:51,919 The impact extends to logistics. In 560 00:27:49,279 --> 00:27:54,640 Valencia's historic center, where large 561 00:27:51,919 --> 00:27:56,960 trucks are increasingly restricted, last 562 00:27:54,640 --> 00:27:58,399 mile delivery by [music] cargo bike is 563 00:27:56,960 --> 00:28:00,799 becoming the gold standard for 564 00:27:58,399 --> 00:28:03,919 efficiency. We are witnessing the birth 565 00:28:00,799 --> 00:28:06,480 of micro hubs, small urban distribution 566 00:28:03,919 --> 00:28:08,640 centers that allow for zero emission 567 00:28:06,480 --> 00:28:11,360 high-speed delivery in high density 568 00:28:08,640 --> 00:28:13,840 zones. From the massive underwater 569 00:28:11,360 --> 00:28:16,480 investments in Amsterdam to the emerging 570 00:28:13,840 --> 00:28:19,360 subscription models in Valencia, the 571 00:28:16,480 --> 00:28:21,919 message is clear. The bicycle is no 572 00:28:19,360 --> 00:28:25,520 longer just a hobby. It is a financial 573 00:28:21,919 --> 00:28:26,720 instrument and a spatial optimizer. 574 00:28:25,520 --> 00:28:29,120 You know, when we were speaking to 575 00:28:26,720 --> 00:28:31,440 consumers about how we could get them to 576 00:28:29,120 --> 00:28:33,279 switch from a car to an ebike, it was 577 00:28:31,440 --> 00:28:35,520 all about convenience. So, it was about 578 00:28:33,279 --> 00:28:37,520 this idea that, you know, with a car, 579 00:28:35,520 --> 00:28:39,279 you can go point A to point B whenever 580 00:28:37,520 --> 00:28:41,360 you want. You're not relying on public 581 00:28:39,279 --> 00:28:43,440 transit or any of those things. But if 582 00:28:41,360 --> 00:28:45,120 you need gas, you go to a gas station, 583 00:28:43,440 --> 00:28:47,440 it takes 5 minutes, and you're back on 584 00:28:45,120 --> 00:28:49,279 your way. People perceived ebikes as 585 00:28:47,440 --> 00:28:50,799 inconvenient because, oh, what if I 586 00:28:49,279 --> 00:28:52,880 forget to charge the battery? Then it's 587 00:28:50,799 --> 00:28:55,120 just kind of a very heavy paper weight. 588 00:28:52,880 --> 00:28:56,720 Um, but if we eliminate that need for 589 00:28:55,120 --> 00:28:58,389 charging and people can just come and 590 00:28:56,720 --> 00:29:00,399 collect a charge battery anytime, 591 00:28:58,389 --> 00:29:03,440 [music] um, it helps break that barrier 592 00:29:00,399 --> 00:29:05,360 to entry for getting out of a car. By 593 00:29:03,440 --> 00:29:07,560 integrating these new business models 594 00:29:05,360 --> 00:29:09,679 with public planning, Valencia is 595 00:29:07,560 --> 00:29:12,640 [music] securing its place in the 21st 596 00:29:09,679 --> 00:29:15,279 century economy. Proving that a dense 597 00:29:12,640 --> 00:29:17,760 functional city isn't just a choice, 598 00:29:15,279 --> 00:29:19,600 it's a competitive necessity. 599 00:29:17,760 --> 00:29:21,440 >> Ultimately, private car ownership is 600 00:29:19,600 --> 00:29:23,200 going to become obsolete. [music] Cities 601 00:29:21,440 --> 00:29:24,880 are building for pedestrians. They're 602 00:29:23,200 --> 00:29:27,440 building for cycling. They're building 603 00:29:24,880 --> 00:29:29,440 for livability, not for cars. 604 00:29:27,440 --> 00:29:31,520 >> Throughout this documentary, we have 605 00:29:29,440 --> 00:29:34,640 seen the gears of a massive economic 606 00:29:31,520 --> 00:29:37,520 machine. But there is a final myth we 607 00:29:34,640 --> 00:29:39,919 must dismantle. The idea that cities 608 00:29:37,520 --> 00:29:41,919 like Amsterdam or Valencia look like 609 00:29:39,919 --> 00:29:44,559 this [music] because their citizens are 610 00:29:41,919 --> 00:29:47,520 simply different. History tells a 611 00:29:44,559 --> 00:29:49,760 different [music] story. In the 1970s, 612 00:29:47,520 --> 00:29:51,760 Amsterdam was on the verge of becoming 613 00:29:49,760 --> 00:29:53,279 another carcent ccentric congested 614 00:29:51,760 --> 00:29:55,840 metropolis. 615 00:29:53,279 --> 00:29:58,240 The transition we see today wasn't a 616 00:29:55,840 --> 00:30:00,960 natural evolution [music] of culture. It 617 00:29:58,240 --> 00:30:02,799 was a hostile takeover of urban space by 618 00:30:00,960 --> 00:30:05,600 a policy and planning. [music] 619 00:30:02,799 --> 00:30:08,080 When a city reaches a certain density, 620 00:30:05,600 --> 00:30:10,320 freedom of choice in transport becomes a 621 00:30:08,080 --> 00:30:13,919 mathematical impossibility. 622 00:30:10,320 --> 00:30:15,840 If everyone chooses a car, no one moves. 623 00:30:13,919 --> 00:30:18,559 In this high [music] stakes environment, 624 00:30:15,840 --> 00:30:21,039 planning is not an option. It is the 625 00:30:18,559 --> 00:30:22,320 only way to survive. What is the 626 00:30:21,039 --> 00:30:26,240 ultimate harvest [music] of this 627 00:30:22,320 --> 00:30:28,640 planning? It is the 3% GDP boost we 628 00:30:26,240 --> 00:30:30,880 mentioned at the start. But it's also 629 00:30:28,640 --> 00:30:34,000 found in the margins, 630 00:30:30,880 --> 00:30:35,919 the fiscal savings by avoiding the need 631 00:30:34,000 --> 00:30:38,399 for multi-billion euro highway 632 00:30:35,919 --> 00:30:41,360 expansions and massive health care costs 633 00:30:38,399 --> 00:30:44,399 related to sedentary lifestyles. 634 00:30:41,360 --> 00:30:46,640 The resilience factor by creating a 635 00:30:44,399 --> 00:30:49,520 circular metropolis that can process its 636 00:30:46,640 --> 00:30:51,520 own waste at the Kruu depot and turn it 637 00:30:49,520 --> 00:30:54,640 back into capital. 638 00:30:51,520 --> 00:30:56,799 The talent magnet in the global war for 639 00:30:54,640 --> 00:30:59,200 talent. Highly skilled workers choose 640 00:30:56,799 --> 00:31:01,760 cities based on [music] livability. 641 00:30:59,200 --> 00:31:03,496 Amsterdam's bicycle infrastructure is 642 00:31:01,760 --> 00:31:04,399 its most effective recruitment tool. 643 00:31:03,496 --> 00:31:06,480 [music] 644 00:31:04,399 --> 00:31:09,600 We started this journey looking at a 645 00:31:06,480 --> 00:31:11,440 simple machine, two wheels and a frame. 646 00:31:09,600 --> 00:31:13,520 But as we've [music] seen, the bicycle 647 00:31:11,440 --> 00:31:16,080 in Amsterdam is much more than a 648 00:31:13,520 --> 00:31:19,440 transport mode. It is a financial 649 00:31:16,080 --> 00:31:22,159 instrument. It is a spatial optimizer. 650 00:31:19,440 --> 00:31:25,200 It is the invisible engine that allows a 651 00:31:22,159 --> 00:31:26,320 medieval city to function as a 21st 652 00:31:25,200 --> 00:31:28,080 century economic [music] 653 00:31:26,320 --> 00:31:31,039 powerhouse. 654 00:31:28,080 --> 00:31:33,120 The €85 million spent on underwater 655 00:31:31,039 --> 00:31:35,760 tunnels, the complex [music] logistics 656 00:31:33,120 --> 00:31:37,919 of the Kruquius Depo, or the new 657 00:31:35,760 --> 00:31:40,880 Mediterranean bike lanes [music] are not 658 00:31:37,919 --> 00:31:42,960 costs. They are investments in 659 00:31:40,880 --> 00:31:45,519 resilience. 660 00:31:42,960 --> 00:31:47,760 In a world of rising energy prices and 661 00:31:45,519 --> 00:31:50,720 shrinking urban space, the Amsterdam 662 00:31:47,760 --> 00:31:52,960 model offers a glimpse into the future. 663 00:31:50,720 --> 00:31:55,679 It proves that the most sophisticated 664 00:31:52,960 --> 00:31:58,399 technology isn't always a new gadget. 665 00:31:55,679 --> 00:32:01,760 Sometimes it's the perfect integration 666 00:31:58,399 --> 00:32:04,760 of an old idea into a new circular 667 00:32:01,760 --> 00:32:04,760 world. 668 00:33:05,120 --> 00:33:08,120 Imagine 669 00:33:20,640 --> 00:33:24,399 for a moment, what if your Bitcoin 670 00:33:22,640 --> 00:33:26,480 holdings could purchase more than just 671 00:33:24,399 --> 00:33:29,039 everyday items like coffee or the latest 672 00:33:26,480 --> 00:33:30,880 gadgets? What if that digital currency 673 00:33:29,039 --> 00:33:33,360 sitting in your wallet could actually 674 00:33:30,880 --> 00:33:38,120 buy you a house or perhaps even an 675 00:33:33,360 --> 00:33:38,120 entire commercial building? real estate. 676 00:33:47,760 --> 00:33:51,279 Welcome to the fascinating and rapidly 677 00:33:49,760 --> 00:33:53,600 evolving world of crypto real [music] 678 00:33:51,279 --> 00:33:58,200 estate where digital assets are being 679 00:33:53,600 --> 00:33:58,200 transformed into tangible property. 680 00:34:02,080 --> 00:34:05,279 Today, we're taking a deep dive into the 681 00:34:04,080 --> 00:34:07,279 revolutionary intersection of 682 00:34:05,279 --> 00:34:09,520 cryptocurrency and property ownership, 683 00:34:07,279 --> 00:34:11,679 examining in detail how Bitcoin [music] 684 00:34:09,520 --> 00:34:14,000 is successfully transforming what were 685 00:34:11,679 --> 00:34:16,159 once purely digital coins into tangible 686 00:34:14,000 --> 00:34:17,679 physical real estate investments. 687 00:34:16,159 --> 00:34:19,440 Whether you're an experienced crypto 688 00:34:17,679 --> 00:34:21,599 investor [music] looking to diversify 689 00:34:19,440 --> 00:34:23,280 your portfolio or simply someone who's 690 00:34:21,599 --> 00:34:25,520 curious about emerging trends in 691 00:34:23,280 --> 00:34:27,359 property markets, this is an in-depth 692 00:34:25,520 --> 00:34:28,960 look at how the landscape and future of 693 00:34:27,359 --> 00:34:31,119 real estate transactions is 694 00:34:28,960 --> 00:34:33,679 fundamentally evolving and changing 695 00:34:31,119 --> 00:34:35,760 before our eyes. 696 00:34:33,679 --> 00:34:37,679 The financial world is in constant 697 00:34:35,760 --> 00:34:39,679 transformation, but in this decade, 698 00:34:37,679 --> 00:34:43,119 digitalization has accelerated that 699 00:34:39,679 --> 00:34:45,280 change faster than anyone imagined. 700 00:34:43,119 --> 00:34:47,599 Today, money, investments, [music] and 701 00:34:45,280 --> 00:34:49,040 assets flow through codes silent, 702 00:34:47,599 --> 00:34:52,240 transparent, and borderless. 703 00:34:49,040 --> 00:34:54,399 Cryptocurrencies led by Bitcoin mark the 704 00:34:52,240 --> 00:34:56,079 beginning of a new era. They shook the 705 00:34:54,399 --> 00:34:58,240 foundations of the global financial 706 00:34:56,079 --> 00:35:01,440 system, sparking both excitement and 707 00:34:58,240 --> 00:35:04,079 skepticism. Yet, behind that phenomenon 708 00:35:01,440 --> 00:35:07,079 emerged something even deeper. 709 00:35:04,079 --> 00:35:07,079 Tokenization. 710 00:35:09,200 --> 00:35:12,200 Contraos, 711 00:35:28,079 --> 00:35:31,640 real world assets. 712 00:35:51,760 --> 00:35:53,839 Moment. 713 00:36:04,000 --> 00:36:08,000 tokenization brings. So it's the most 714 00:36:05,440 --> 00:36:09,599 suitable, most modern ledger technology 715 00:36:08,000 --> 00:36:10,240 uh ideal for modernizing capital 716 00:36:09,599 --> 00:36:13,520 markets. 717 00:36:10,240 --> 00:36:15,520 >> The idea is simple, the impact enormous. 718 00:36:13,520 --> 00:36:18,160 Each token represents a fraction of an 719 00:36:15,520 --> 00:36:20,079 asset, a share, a bond, a property, or 720 00:36:18,160 --> 00:36:22,240 even a work of art. All recorded on a 721 00:36:20,079 --> 00:36:25,240 blockchain, a global tamper proof 722 00:36:22,240 --> 00:36:25,240 ledger. 723 00:36:29,035 --> 00:36:31,055 [music] 724 00:36:39,515 --> 00:36:41,535 >> [music] 725 00:36:42,400 --> 00:36:45,800 >> Smart contracts. 726 00:37:00,000 --> 00:37:03,280 We believe the next step going forward 727 00:37:01,839 --> 00:37:06,079 will be the tokenization [music] 728 00:37:03,280 --> 00:37:08,960 of financial assets. And that means 729 00:37:06,079 --> 00:37:11,760 every stock, every bond will have its 730 00:37:08,960 --> 00:37:12,640 own basically QIP. It'll be on one 731 00:37:11,760 --> 00:37:15,119 general ledger. 732 00:37:12,640 --> 00:37:17,440 >> In other words, a token isn't just an 733 00:37:15,119 --> 00:37:20,000 asset. It's a digital entry [music] in a 734 00:37:17,440 --> 00:37:22,320 new kind of ledger that is rewriting how 735 00:37:20,000 --> 00:37:24,560 capital markets keep their books. 736 00:37:22,320 --> 00:37:26,079 Investment in tokenized real estates 737 00:37:24,560 --> 00:37:27,330 represents one of the most recent 738 00:37:26,079 --> 00:37:28,320 advancements in the property industry. 739 00:37:27,330 --> 00:37:30,560 [music] 740 00:37:28,320 --> 00:37:33,040 Tokenization enables houses and 741 00:37:30,560 --> 00:37:37,079 apartments to be divided and sold and 742 00:37:33,040 --> 00:37:37,079 numerous smaller units. 743 00:37:46,320 --> 00:37:48,480 Fraction. 744 00:37:58,320 --> 00:38:02,200 Fraction. 745 00:37:59,200 --> 00:38:02,200 different. 746 00:38:05,976 --> 00:38:07,996 [music] 747 00:38:13,836 --> 00:38:15,856 [music] 748 00:38:23,440 --> 00:38:27,839 Small programs act like a bridge between 749 00:38:25,280 --> 00:38:29,680 a property and online trading platform. 750 00:38:27,839 --> 00:38:31,119 Hence tokens create a digital 751 00:38:29,680 --> 00:38:35,480 representation of a property [music] 752 00:38:31,119 --> 00:38:35,480 facilitating its digital transfer. 753 00:38:36,960 --> 00:38:40,800 The process of purchasing a property is 754 00:38:39,119 --> 00:38:43,280 still associated with significant 755 00:38:40,800 --> 00:38:45,680 bureaucracy, lengthy procedures and 756 00:38:43,280 --> 00:38:49,040 subsequent high costs. 757 00:38:45,680 --> 00:38:51,440 So what exactly is crypto real estate? 758 00:38:49,040 --> 00:38:53,680 At its core, the term refers to any real 759 00:38:51,440 --> 00:38:56,560 estate transaction where cryptocurrency 760 00:38:53,680 --> 00:38:59,040 plays a major role, either as a direct 761 00:38:56,560 --> 00:39:03,320 form of payment, a converted asset, or 762 00:38:59,040 --> 00:39:03,320 collateral for purchasing property. 763 00:39:10,800 --> 00:39:13,800 Bitcoins 764 00:39:30,720 --> 00:39:34,920 Crypto reference loans. 765 00:39:54,560 --> 00:39:59,520 But the concept goes even deeper than 766 00:39:57,280 --> 00:40:01,440 that. Crypto real estate includes buying 767 00:39:59,520 --> 00:40:03,520 a home directly with Bitcoin or other 768 00:40:01,440 --> 00:40:06,497 cryptocurrencies, using stable coins 769 00:40:03,520 --> 00:40:08,880 like USDT or USDC for a more stable 770 00:40:06,497 --> 00:40:11,359 [music] purchase, converting crypto into 771 00:40:08,880 --> 00:40:12,960 fiat at closing, taking out loans backed 772 00:40:11,359 --> 00:40:14,720 by cryptocurrency to purchase real 773 00:40:12,960 --> 00:40:16,640 property, tokenized real estate where 774 00:40:14,720 --> 00:40:18,320 ownership is fractionalized into digital 775 00:40:16,640 --> 00:40:20,000 token, blockchain based property 776 00:40:18,320 --> 00:40:23,000 records, and smart contract driven 777 00:40:20,000 --> 00:40:23,000 transactions. 778 00:40:35,040 --> 00:40:38,440 Stable coins. 779 00:40:51,680 --> 00:40:55,079 Stable coins. 780 00:41:03,920 --> 00:41:09,319 EMT. E A R Tther 781 00:41:17,520 --> 00:41:21,640 U USDT 782 00:41:25,440 --> 00:41:28,440 USDC 783 00:41:40,880 --> 00:41:43,880 US 784 00:41:48,240 --> 00:41:51,720 stable coinry. 785 00:41:58,504 --> 00:42:00,524 >> [snorts] 786 00:42:08,160 --> 00:42:11,160 >> for 787 00:42:34,480 --> 00:42:37,880 stable coins. 788 00:42:43,920 --> 00:42:48,319 It's an evolution in how value moves 789 00:42:46,160 --> 00:42:50,480 around the world. And for the first 790 00:42:48,319 --> 00:42:54,640 time, digital wealth is becoming a 791 00:42:50,480 --> 00:42:54,640 direct pathway to physical ownership. 792 00:42:56,480 --> 00:43:00,240 To understand how we arrived at this 793 00:42:58,480 --> 00:43:02,880 moment, we need to step back and look at 794 00:43:00,240 --> 00:43:04,960 the timeline. Bitcoin launched in 2009 795 00:43:02,880 --> 00:43:06,800 as a peer-to-peer digital alternative to 796 00:43:04,960 --> 00:43:08,640 money. In its early years, the idea of 797 00:43:06,800 --> 00:43:10,960 using Bitcoin to buy real estate was 798 00:43:08,640 --> 00:43:13,280 laughable. But Bitcoin grew, first 799 00:43:10,960 --> 00:43:15,760 crossing $1, then a 100, then a 800 00:43:13,280 --> 00:43:18,400 thousand, then tens of thousands. A new 801 00:43:15,760 --> 00:43:20,400 wave of wealth was created. Suddenly, 802 00:43:18,400 --> 00:43:22,560 early adopters who once bought pizza 803 00:43:20,400 --> 00:43:25,520 with Bitcoin now had enough digital 804 00:43:22,560 --> 00:43:27,920 value to buy entire homes, and sellers 805 00:43:25,520 --> 00:43:29,920 began paying attention. The first public 806 00:43:27,920 --> 00:43:33,119 record of a property purchased fully in 807 00:43:29,920 --> 00:43:35,280 Bitcoin dates back to 2017. From there, 808 00:43:33,119 --> 00:43:37,839 the trend spread to luxury markets, 809 00:43:35,280 --> 00:43:40,160 Miami, Los Angeles, New York, Dubai, and 810 00:43:37,839 --> 00:43:42,000 London. Developers began marketing 811 00:43:40,160 --> 00:43:44,720 properties specifically to crypto 812 00:43:42,000 --> 00:43:47,599 buyers. Brokers started specializing in 813 00:43:44,720 --> 00:43:49,119 crypto transactions. Escrow companies 814 00:43:47,599 --> 00:43:50,960 adapted. 815 00:43:49,119 --> 00:43:54,319 Even governments began studying 816 00:43:50,960 --> 00:43:56,800 blockchainbased property registries. 817 00:43:54,319 --> 00:43:59,280 Buying real estate with Bitcoin isn't 818 00:43:56,800 --> 00:44:01,200 science fiction. Some sellers now accept 819 00:43:59,280 --> 00:44:02,955 crypto directly, while others work 820 00:44:01,200 --> 00:44:05,760 through brokers who convert Bitcoin into 821 00:44:02,955 --> 00:44:08,160 [music] local currency. The process is 822 00:44:05,760 --> 00:44:10,640 faster, borderless, and sometimes even 823 00:44:08,160 --> 00:44:12,880 tax efficient if you know the rules. 824 00:44:10,640 --> 00:44:15,599 Things that sounded impossible in 2010 825 00:44:12,880 --> 00:44:18,240 became normal by 2020. And now [music] 826 00:44:15,599 --> 00:44:20,640 in the 2020s, cryptocurrency is becoming 827 00:44:18,240 --> 00:44:23,040 a serious player in global real estate. 828 00:44:20,640 --> 00:44:24,880 The crypto boom has created a new class 829 00:44:23,040 --> 00:44:26,800 of investors. High- netw worth 830 00:44:24,880 --> 00:44:28,960 individuals [music] want to diversify, 831 00:44:26,800 --> 00:44:31,599 and real estate is a safe, tangible 832 00:44:28,960 --> 00:44:34,240 asset. From luxury homes in Miami to 833 00:44:31,599 --> 00:44:36,480 condos in Dubai, Bitcoin buyers are 834 00:44:34,240 --> 00:44:38,400 making their mark. Let's look at a few 835 00:44:36,480 --> 00:44:40,960 real world examples to understand how 836 00:44:38,400 --> 00:44:43,760 crypto real estate works in practice. 837 00:44:40,960 --> 00:44:46,720 Case study one. In 2021, a luxury 838 00:44:43,760 --> 00:44:49,359 penthouse at Artee by Antonio Satario in 839 00:44:46,720 --> 00:44:52,960 Surfside, Florida made history. The 840 00:44:49,359 --> 00:44:55,440 property sold for 22.5 million paid 841 00:44:52,960 --> 00:44:57,599 entirely in cryptocurrency. The largest 842 00:44:55,440 --> 00:44:59,920 publicly known real estate transaction 843 00:44:57,599 --> 00:45:02,240 completed using digital assets at the 844 00:44:59,920 --> 00:45:04,480 time. A developer's decision to accept 845 00:45:02,240 --> 00:45:06,560 cryptocurrency had paid off. The sale 846 00:45:04,480 --> 00:45:07,760 came just weeks after the developer 847 00:45:06,560 --> 00:45:09,599 announced it [music] would begin 848 00:45:07,760 --> 00:45:11,119 accepting cryptocurrency payments 849 00:45:09,599 --> 00:45:12,960 through a partnership with blockchain 850 00:45:11,119 --> 00:45:14,560 platform Solid Block. According to 851 00:45:12,960 --> 00:45:16,480 Forbes, the [music] deal demonstrated 852 00:45:14,560 --> 00:45:18,880 that crypto was no longer just a 853 00:45:16,480 --> 00:45:20,480 speculative asset. It had become a 854 00:45:18,880 --> 00:45:23,359 viable method [music] for purchasing 855 00:45:20,480 --> 00:45:25,920 high-end real estate. Hey Study 2 in 856 00:45:23,359 --> 00:45:27,520 Dubai, one of the earliest large-scale 857 00:45:25,920 --> 00:45:29,920 experiments [music] with crypto real 858 00:45:27,520 --> 00:45:32,319 estate unfolded at Aston Plaza and 859 00:45:29,920 --> 00:45:35,040 residences located in Dubai Science 860 00:45:32,319 --> 00:45:36,720 Park. Marketed as one of the first major 861 00:45:35,040 --> 00:45:38,640 developments in the region to accept 862 00:45:36,720 --> 00:45:40,319 Bitcoin, the project [music] offered 863 00:45:38,640 --> 00:45:41,839 apartments priced directly in 864 00:45:40,319 --> 00:45:43,920 cryptocurrency, 865 00:45:41,839 --> 00:45:45,520 buyers were able to commit funds using 866 00:45:43,920 --> 00:45:47,839 Bitcoin, capturing global [music] 867 00:45:45,520 --> 00:45:50,240 attention. But the story also revealed 868 00:45:47,839 --> 00:45:53,440 the risks of innovation. Originally 869 00:45:50,240 --> 00:45:55,760 advertised as a $325 million 870 00:45:53,440 --> 00:45:58,079 development, the project later stalled 871 00:45:55,760 --> 00:46:00,480 and its completion became uncertain. 872 00:45:58,079 --> 00:46:03,040 While crypto payments were accepted, it 873 00:46:00,480 --> 00:46:05,680 remains unclear whether all buyers 874 00:46:03,040 --> 00:46:07,520 ultimately received finished properties. 875 00:46:05,680 --> 00:46:09,839 The case highlighted both the promise 876 00:46:07,520 --> 00:46:13,280 and the pitfalls of early crypto 877 00:46:09,839 --> 00:46:15,760 adoption real estate. Case study 3. In 878 00:46:13,280 --> 00:46:17,520 2025, Spain recorded one of its first 879 00:46:15,760 --> 00:46:20,079 officially reported property sales 880 00:46:17,520 --> 00:46:22,800 completed with Bitcoin. A property in 881 00:46:20,079 --> 00:46:24,720 Madrid valued at approximately 1.5 882 00:46:22,800 --> 00:46:26,960 million of euros was purchased by an 883 00:46:24,720 --> 00:46:28,880 international buyer using Bitcoin. The 884 00:46:26,960 --> 00:46:31,920 transaction followed standard real 885 00:46:28,880 --> 00:46:34,240 estate procedures including escrow legal 886 00:46:31,920 --> 00:46:36,640 compliance and the conversion of crypto 887 00:46:34,240 --> 00:46:38,400 into euros for the seller. It marked a 888 00:46:36,640 --> 00:46:40,160 significant milestone showing that 889 00:46:38,400 --> 00:46:42,000 cryptocurrency could integrate into 890 00:46:40,160 --> 00:46:43,920 traditional real [music] estate systems 891 00:46:42,000 --> 00:46:46,720 even in highly regulated European 892 00:46:43,920 --> 00:46:49,040 markets. Case study four in the United 893 00:46:46,720 --> 00:46:51,680 States crypto adoption hasn't been 894 00:46:49,040 --> 00:46:54,000 limited to coastal tech hubs. An agent 895 00:46:51,680 --> 00:46:56,240 with Sothabis International Realy in 896 00:46:54,000 --> 00:46:59,359 Delaware reported selling a luxury 897 00:46:56,240 --> 00:47:01,280 property for $175 million paid in 898 00:46:59,359 --> 00:47:03,280 Bitcoin. Believed to be one of the 899 00:47:01,280 --> 00:47:05,680 state's first major real estate 900 00:47:03,280 --> 00:47:07,839 transactions involving cryptocurrency, 901 00:47:05,680 --> 00:47:10,079 the sale was widely publicized as a 902 00:47:07,839 --> 00:47:11,599 local milestone, signaling that crypto 903 00:47:10,079 --> 00:47:14,079 real estate was beginning to reach 904 00:47:11,599 --> 00:47:17,560 beyond niche markets and into everyday 905 00:47:14,079 --> 00:47:17,560 property transactions. 906 00:47:18,147 --> 00:47:21,720 >> [music] 907 00:47:18,319 --> 00:47:21,720 >> Genius Act. 908 00:47:22,732 --> 00:47:24,752 [music] 909 00:47:33,760 --> 00:47:37,720 different stable coins. 910 00:47:47,839 --> 00:47:50,839 Evolution 911 00:47:55,440 --> 00:47:58,440 motion. 912 00:48:16,160 --> 00:48:19,160 Maximum. 913 00:48:30,480 --> 00:48:33,480 forract. 914 00:49:09,200 --> 00:49:13,760 Taken together, these cases tell a 915 00:49:11,119 --> 00:49:15,920 larger story, one of experimentation, 916 00:49:13,760 --> 00:49:18,319 success, setbacks, and growing 917 00:49:15,920 --> 00:49:20,559 legitimacy. Crypto real estate is no 918 00:49:18,319 --> 00:49:22,720 longer hypothetical. It's happening 919 00:49:20,559 --> 00:49:26,559 transaction by transaction across the 920 00:49:22,720 --> 00:49:28,400 globe. But it's not all smooth sailing. 921 00:49:26,559 --> 00:49:30,800 Crypto's value can be volatile, 922 00:49:28,400 --> 00:49:33,280 regulations vary by country, and tax 923 00:49:30,800 --> 00:49:35,520 implications can be tricky. First, 924 00:49:33,280 --> 00:49:37,760 volatility. Bitcoin and other 925 00:49:35,520 --> 00:49:39,520 cryptocurrencies can move dramatically, 926 00:49:37,760 --> 00:49:41,359 sometimes losing or gaining a third of 927 00:49:39,520 --> 00:49:43,680 their value in weeks. For buyers who 928 00:49:41,359 --> 00:49:47,119 convert at closing, rapid swings can 929 00:49:43,680 --> 00:49:50,240 erase gains or spike costs in hours. 930 00:49:47,119 --> 00:49:52,400 Second, transaction mechanics and title. 931 00:49:50,240 --> 00:49:54,400 Even when a seller accepts crypto, most 932 00:49:52,400 --> 00:49:55,839 governments and land registries require 933 00:49:54,400 --> 00:49:58,240 deeds to be issued in the local 934 00:49:55,839 --> 00:50:00,480 currency. That usually means an 935 00:49:58,240 --> 00:50:02,319 intermediary converts crypto to fiat 936 00:50:00,480 --> 00:50:04,559 before the legal title is registered, 937 00:50:02,319 --> 00:50:06,240 adding counterparty risk and an extra 938 00:50:04,559 --> 00:50:09,200 step that can delay and complicate 939 00:50:06,240 --> 00:50:10,880 settlements. Third, taxes. In many 940 00:50:09,200 --> 00:50:12,960 jurisdictions, authorities treat crypto 941 00:50:10,880 --> 00:50:14,880 as property, not currency, which makes 942 00:50:12,960 --> 00:50:17,200 nearly every transfer a taxable event. 943 00:50:14,880 --> 00:50:19,280 that includes sales, exchanges, and 944 00:50:17,200 --> 00:50:21,520 sometimes even payments for goods or 945 00:50:19,280 --> 00:50:23,839 services. Buyers and sellers must track 946 00:50:21,520 --> 00:50:25,920 cost basis, gains, and report the 947 00:50:23,839 --> 00:50:28,559 transactions accurately or face audits 948 00:50:25,920 --> 00:50:30,400 and penalties. Fourth, lending and 949 00:50:28,559 --> 00:50:32,000 counterparty risk. Cryptobacked lending 950 00:50:30,400 --> 00:50:33,839 exploded in the previous market cycle, 951 00:50:32,000 --> 00:50:36,079 but it ended with high-profile collapses 952 00:50:33,839 --> 00:50:37,920 and bankruptcies. When platforms fail, 953 00:50:36,079 --> 00:50:39,839 borrowers and depositors can lose access 954 00:50:37,920 --> 00:50:41,520 to funds. Collateral can be liquidated 955 00:50:39,839 --> 00:50:43,359 at a loss and promise liquidity 956 00:50:41,520 --> 00:50:45,200 disappears, a danger for anyone relying 957 00:50:43,359 --> 00:50:47,359 on thirdparty services to bridge crypto 958 00:50:45,200 --> 00:50:48,720 and property purchases. 959 00:50:47,359 --> 00:50:51,280 Fifth, compliance and 960 00:50:48,720 --> 00:50:52,880 anti-moneyaundering rules. Regulators 961 00:50:51,280 --> 00:50:54,800 and global bodies have tightened rules 962 00:50:52,880 --> 00:50:57,040 around virtual assets to prevent illicit 963 00:50:54,800 --> 00:50:59,359 flows. Real estate transactions are high 964 00:50:57,040 --> 00:51:01,119 on that list, meaning additional KYC, 965 00:50:59,359 --> 00:51:03,200 source of fund checks, and reporting 966 00:51:01,119 --> 00:51:05,040 requirements. Failure to meet these 967 00:51:03,200 --> 00:51:07,280 standards can stall a sale, trigger 968 00:51:05,040 --> 00:51:10,480 investigations, or expose participants 969 00:51:07,280 --> 00:51:12,720 to legal liability. Sixth, operational 970 00:51:10,480 --> 00:51:14,559 and technical risk. Crypto transactions 971 00:51:12,720 --> 00:51:16,160 are irreversible. A single wrong 972 00:51:14,559 --> 00:51:17,760 character in a wallet address or a 973 00:51:16,160 --> 00:51:19,520 fishing attack on an email with wiring 974 00:51:17,760 --> 00:51:20,880 instructions can send millions to the 975 00:51:19,520 --> 00:51:22,800 wrong place, and there's no bank to 976 00:51:20,880 --> 00:51:24,640 reverse the transfer. Seventh, 977 00:51:22,800 --> 00:51:26,720 technology risk, smart contracts, 978 00:51:24,640 --> 00:51:28,640 tokenization, and new platforms bring 979 00:51:26,720 --> 00:51:30,400 innovation, but also software bugs and 980 00:51:28,640 --> 00:51:32,559 design flaws. A poorly written smart 981 00:51:30,400 --> 00:51:34,800 contract or an unodudited tokenization 982 00:51:32,559 --> 00:51:37,599 platform can freeze assets, misallocate 983 00:51:34,800 --> 00:51:40,240 ownership shares or enable exploits. 984 00:51:37,599 --> 00:51:41,920 Finally, market and reputational risk. 985 00:51:40,240 --> 00:51:43,599 Developers and brokers who accept crypto 986 00:51:41,920 --> 00:51:45,440 can attract new buyers, but they also 987 00:51:43,599 --> 00:51:47,119 take on greater scrutiny, regulatory 988 00:51:45,440 --> 00:51:48,960 compliance burdens, and the risk that 989 00:51:47,119 --> 00:51:51,200 projects promoted with crypto funding 990 00:51:48,960 --> 00:51:54,160 may underdel, stall, or become entangled 991 00:51:51,200 --> 00:51:56,480 in legal disputes. In short, crypto can 992 00:51:54,160 --> 00:51:59,119 speed and globalize property deals, but 993 00:51:56,480 --> 00:52:01,760 it also layers on volatility, regulatory 994 00:51:59,119 --> 00:52:03,839 complexity, and new failure modes for 995 00:52:01,760 --> 00:52:06,160 buyers, sellers, and advisers. The 996 00:52:03,839 --> 00:52:08,000 lesson is clear. Proceed with rigorous 997 00:52:06,160 --> 00:52:10,559 legal counsel, hardened custody 998 00:52:08,000 --> 00:52:12,559 practices, and transparent compliance. 999 00:52:10,559 --> 00:52:15,559 The opportunity is real, but so are the 1000 00:52:12,559 --> 00:52:15,559 pitfalls. 1001 00:52:34,160 --> 00:52:39,280 Still, the opportunities are huge. A new 1002 00:52:37,200 --> 00:52:41,119 generation of buyers is turning digital 1003 00:52:39,280 --> 00:52:44,240 value into physical assets. [music] For 1004 00:52:41,119 --> 00:52:46,880 many, Bitcoin isn't just a currency. 1005 00:52:44,240 --> 00:52:48,160 It's a gateway to ownership. 1006 00:52:46,880 --> 00:52:49,359 One of the biggest shifts is 1007 00:52:48,160 --> 00:52:51,520 tokenization. [music] 1008 00:52:49,359 --> 00:52:53,440 Instead of buying an entire building, 1009 00:52:51,520 --> 00:52:54,079 investors can now purchase fractional 1010 00:52:53,440 --> 00:52:56,559 ownership [music] 1011 00:52:54,079 --> 00:52:58,319 through blockchainbased tokens. This 1012 00:52:56,559 --> 00:53:00,319 lowers the barrier to entry, allowing 1013 00:52:58,319 --> 00:53:01,920 smaller investors to access real estate 1014 00:53:00,319 --> 00:53:06,200 markets that were once reserved for 1015 00:53:01,920 --> 00:53:06,200 institutions and the ultra wealthy. 1016 00:53:12,240 --> 00:53:15,240 for 1017 00:53:17,091 --> 00:53:19,111 [music] 1018 00:53:25,606 --> 00:53:27,626 [music] 1019 00:53:39,040 --> 00:53:41,359 important. 1020 00:53:49,842 --> 00:53:53,680 >> [music] 1021 00:53:50,800 --> 00:53:55,680 >> Tokenization also brings liquidity to an 1022 00:53:53,680 --> 00:53:58,079 industry that has traditionally been 1023 00:53:55,680 --> 00:54:00,480 slow [music] and illquid. Real estate 1024 00:53:58,079 --> 00:54:02,559 transactions can take months. Tokenized 1025 00:54:00,480 --> 00:54:05,280 shares can potentially be transferred in 1026 00:54:02,559 --> 00:54:07,599 minutes. Crypto is also reshaping 1027 00:54:05,280 --> 00:54:09,680 crossber real estate. International 1028 00:54:07,599 --> 00:54:12,480 buyers often face currency controls, 1029 00:54:09,680 --> 00:54:14,559 wire delays, and banking restrictions. 1030 00:54:12,480 --> 00:54:16,042 Cryptocurrency allows capital to move 1031 00:54:14,559 --> 00:54:18,000 globally with fewer friction points, 1032 00:54:16,042 --> 00:54:20,240 [music] opening markets to buyers who 1033 00:54:18,000 --> 00:54:22,000 were previously locked out. As a result, 1034 00:54:20,240 --> 00:54:23,599 cities that embrace crypto-friendly 1035 00:54:22,000 --> 00:54:25,440 regulations are attracting global 1036 00:54:23,599 --> 00:54:26,880 capital faster. Developers are 1037 00:54:25,440 --> 00:54:28,800 responding by marketing properties 1038 00:54:26,880 --> 00:54:31,359 directly to crypto holders, not as a 1039 00:54:28,800 --> 00:54:33,200 novelty, but as a strategy. Governments 1040 00:54:31,359 --> 00:54:35,119 are also exploring blockchain for land 1041 00:54:33,200 --> 00:54:37,200 registries and property records. 1042 00:54:35,119 --> 00:54:39,200 Immutable ledgers can reduce disputes, 1043 00:54:37,200 --> 00:54:41,599 prevent title fraud, and provide [music] 1044 00:54:39,200 --> 00:54:43,119 permanent verifiable ownership history, 1045 00:54:41,599 --> 00:54:45,359 especially in regions where property 1046 00:54:43,119 --> 00:54:47,119 rights are difficult to enforce. This 1047 00:54:45,359 --> 00:54:49,119 isn't a complete replacement of 1048 00:54:47,119 --> 00:54:50,240 traditional real estate. It's a 1049 00:54:49,119 --> 00:54:51,599 transformation. [music] 1050 00:54:50,240 --> 00:54:54,079 Crypto doesn't eliminate the 1051 00:54:51,599 --> 00:54:55,839 fundamentals. Location, demand, and due 1052 00:54:54,079 --> 00:54:57,760 diligence still matter, but it changes 1053 00:54:55,839 --> 00:54:59,599 how value moves, how quickly deals 1054 00:54:57,760 --> 00:55:01,599 happen, and who gets [music] access. So, 1055 00:54:59,599 --> 00:55:03,760 what does all of this mean for you as an 1056 00:55:01,599 --> 00:55:05,440 investor or future home buyer? It means 1057 00:55:03,760 --> 00:55:07,359 new opportunities are emerging. 1058 00:55:05,440 --> 00:55:09,040 Opportunities to leverage your crypto 1059 00:55:07,359 --> 00:55:11,359 holdings. Opportunities [music] to 1060 00:55:09,040 --> 00:55:13,760 participate in international markets 1061 00:55:11,359 --> 00:55:15,200 more easily. Opportunities to acquire 1062 00:55:13,760 --> 00:55:18,200 property faster and more [music] 1063 00:55:15,200 --> 00:55:18,200 efficiently. 1064 00:55:33,988 --> 00:55:36,008 >> [music] 1065 00:55:50,079 --> 00:55:52,480 >> Sophistic. 1066 00:55:55,520 --> 00:55:57,839 consequenc 1067 00:56:08,400 --> 00:56:11,640 Real estate 1068 00:56:17,359 --> 00:56:19,893 system. [music] 1069 00:56:23,280 --> 00:56:26,280 Fore 1070 00:56:28,354 --> 00:56:30,374 [music] 1071 00:56:40,144 --> 00:56:42,164 [music] 1072 00:56:45,384 --> 00:56:47,404 [music] 1073 00:56:48,480 --> 00:56:51,640 real estate. 1074 00:56:57,760 --> 00:57:02,559 But like any emerging space, education 1075 00:57:00,449 --> 00:57:05,119 [music] is key. Working with crypto 1076 00:57:02,559 --> 00:57:07,599 friendly agents, attorneys, and escrow 1077 00:57:05,119 --> 00:57:09,760 companies is essential. 1078 00:57:07,599 --> 00:57:11,440 Understanding your local regulations is 1079 00:57:09,760 --> 00:57:13,200 crucial, and ensuring the security of 1080 00:57:11,440 --> 00:57:16,200 your crypto wallet is absolutely 1081 00:57:13,200 --> 00:57:16,200 non-negotiable. 1082 00:57:17,680 --> 00:57:20,154 The professor [music] 1083 00:57:26,649 --> 00:57:30,160 [music] 1084 00:57:27,839 --> 00:57:30,160 sophistic 1085 00:57:36,480 --> 00:57:39,480 Financchech. 1086 00:57:40,404 --> 00:57:42,424 [music] 1087 00:57:50,229 --> 00:57:52,249 [music] 1088 00:57:58,160 --> 00:58:00,765 experenc. [music] 1089 00:58:12,500 --> 00:58:14,520 [music] 1090 00:58:24,945 --> 00:58:26,965 [music] 1091 00:58:29,200 --> 00:58:32,200 Fundamentas 1092 00:58:32,805 --> 00:58:34,825 [music] 1093 00:58:41,320 --> 00:58:43,340 [music] 1094 00:58:57,200 --> 00:58:59,359 physical. 1095 00:59:05,555 --> 00:59:07,575 >> [music] 1096 00:59:20,000 --> 00:59:24,000 >> The cryptocurrency market has entered 1097 00:59:21,920 --> 00:59:26,640 the opening days of 2026 [music] with 1098 00:59:24,000 --> 00:59:29,359 renewed momentum after a volatile end to 1099 00:59:26,640 --> 00:59:30,960 2025. Five. Prices across major digital 1100 00:59:29,359 --> 00:59:32,559 assets have moved sharply higher, 1101 00:59:30,960 --> 00:59:35,200 drawing attention from both retail 1102 00:59:32,559 --> 00:59:37,520 traders and institutional investors. In 1103 00:59:35,200 --> 00:59:39,440 early January, the total cryptocurrency 1104 00:59:37,520 --> 00:59:40,240 market capitalization climbed to around 1105 00:59:39,440 --> 00:59:42,640 $3.2 [music] 1106 00:59:40,240 --> 00:59:44,559 trillion, according to aggregated data 1107 00:59:42,640 --> 00:59:46,240 from major market trackers. This 1108 00:59:44,559 --> 00:59:48,880 represents a meaningful rebound from 1109 00:59:46,240 --> 00:59:50,640 late 2025 levels with the market adding 1110 00:59:48,880 --> 00:59:52,559 hundreds of billions of dollars in value 1111 00:59:50,640 --> 00:59:53,920 over a relatively short period. While 1112 00:59:52,559 --> 00:59:55,680 exact figures vary, [music] the 1113 00:59:53,920 --> 00:59:57,280 direction is clear. Capital has returned 1114 00:59:55,680 --> 00:59:58,880 to the crypto market at the start of the 1115 00:59:57,280 --> 01:00:00,319 year. At the center of this move is 1116 00:59:58,880 --> 01:00:02,720 Bitcoin, [music] which rallied toward 1117 01:00:00,319 --> 01:00:05,119 the $93,000 level in the first week of 1118 01:00:02,720 --> 01:00:07,126 January. As the largest and most 1119 01:00:05,119 --> 01:00:08,799 influential digital asset, Bitcoin 1120 01:00:07,126 --> 01:00:10,480 [music] continues to act as the market's 1121 01:00:08,799 --> 01:00:12,319 primary anchor, and its strength has 1122 01:00:10,480 --> 01:00:15,359 helped lift sentiment across the broader 1123 01:00:12,319 --> 01:00:17,520 ecosystem. Historically, strong Bitcoin 1124 01:00:15,359 --> 01:00:19,119 performance has often preceded periods 1125 01:00:17,520 --> 01:00:21,440 of [music] increased activity in 1126 01:00:19,119 --> 01:00:23,359 alternative cryptocurrencies, and early 1127 01:00:21,440 --> 01:00:25,599 2026 appears [music] to be following a 1128 01:00:23,359 --> 01:00:26,799 similar pattern. Another key factor has 1129 01:00:25,599 --> 01:00:28,880 been renewed institutional 1130 01:00:26,799 --> 01:00:30,720 participation, particularly through spot 1131 01:00:28,880 --> 01:00:33,119 Bitcoin and Ethereum exchange traded 1132 01:00:30,720 --> 01:00:35,440 funds. Reports from early January 1133 01:00:33,119 --> 01:00:37,119 indicate notable ETF inflows, suggesting 1134 01:00:35,440 --> 01:00:39,040 that traditional investors are once 1135 01:00:37,119 --> 01:00:41,040 again increasing exposure to digital 1136 01:00:39,040 --> 01:00:42,799 assets. The current momentum appears to 1137 01:00:41,040 --> 01:00:44,400 be driven by a combination of factors, 1138 01:00:42,799 --> 01:00:47,359 including Bitcoin's [music] 1139 01:00:44,400 --> 01:00:49,440 price recovery, increased ETF inflows, 1140 01:00:47,359 --> 01:00:50,960 improved global risk sentiment, 1141 01:00:49,440 --> 01:00:53,359 expectations of more supportive 1142 01:00:50,960 --> 01:00:55,839 regulatory and macroeconomic conditions. 1143 01:00:53,359 --> 01:00:57,599 As 2026 begins, the cryptocurrency 1144 01:00:55,839 --> 01:00:59,760 market finds itself at a familiar 1145 01:00:57,599 --> 01:01:01,520 crossroads. Renewed optimism balanced 1146 01:00:59,760 --> 01:01:03,119 against persistent uncertainty. Whether 1147 01:01:01,520 --> 01:01:04,960 this earlier strength marks [music] the 1148 01:01:03,119 --> 01:01:06,640 beginning of a sustained trend or simply 1149 01:01:04,960 --> 01:01:08,640 another chapter in crypto's cyclical 1150 01:01:06,640 --> 01:01:11,760 nature is a question that only time will 1151 01:01:08,640 --> 01:01:14,000 answer. For now, the message from the 1152 01:01:11,760 --> 01:01:16,000 market is clear. Crypto is once [music] 1153 01:01:14,000 --> 01:01:17,599 again commanding attention. If you 1154 01:01:16,000 --> 01:01:19,680 approach crypto real estate with 1155 01:01:17,599 --> 01:01:21,440 knowledge and preparation, the rewards 1156 01:01:19,680 --> 01:01:23,920 can be extraordinary. [music] 1157 01:01:21,440 --> 01:01:26,559 Bitcoin the bricks isn't just a catchy 1158 01:01:23,920 --> 01:01:28,880 phrase. It's the future of real estate 1159 01:01:26,559 --> 01:01:31,280 investment. If you want to stay ahead of 1160 01:01:28,880 --> 01:01:33,040 the curve, now's the time to learn how 1161 01:01:31,280 --> 01:01:36,040 crypto [music] can open doors. 1162 01:01:33,040 --> 01:01:36,040 Literally. 1163 01:01:46,720 --> 01:01:49,720 Explorer 1164 01:01:51,927 --> 01:01:53,947 [music] 1165 01:01:59,359 --> 01:02:01,807 Transparence. [music] 1166 01:02:10,267 --> 01:02:12,287 [music] 1167 01:02:33,040 --> 01:02:36,640 From digital coins to physical assets, 1168 01:02:35,200 --> 01:02:38,880 from online wallets to real [music] 1169 01:02:36,640 --> 01:02:41,040 world property lines, cryptocurrency is 1170 01:02:38,880 --> 01:02:43,520 reshaping how we buy, sell, and think 1171 01:02:41,040 --> 01:02:45,040 about real estate. We are witnessing the 1172 01:02:43,520 --> 01:02:47,119 merging of two worlds. The [music] 1173 01:02:45,040 --> 01:02:49,200 oldest asset on earth and one of the 1174 01:02:47,119 --> 01:02:52,160 newest technological inventions of our 1175 01:02:49,200 --> 01:02:53,920 time. And as the future unfolds, only 1176 01:02:52,160 --> 01:02:58,359 one question remain. [music] Will 1177 01:02:53,920 --> 01:02:58,359 Bitcoin buy your next home? 1178 01:04:21,599 --> 01:04:26,960 September 2008. 1179 01:04:24,480 --> 01:04:29,599 The global financial system is on the 1180 01:04:26,960 --> 01:04:32,640 verge of a total blackout. Layman 1181 01:04:29,599 --> 01:04:36,319 Brothers has vanished. Meil Lynch is 1182 01:04:32,640 --> 01:04:38,400 gone. AIG is hemorrhaging billions every 1183 01:04:36,319 --> 01:04:40,720 hour. 1184 01:04:38,400 --> 01:04:42,640 In Washington, the halls of the Treasury 1185 01:04:40,720 --> 01:04:45,920 are filled with the smartest minds in 1186 01:04:42,640 --> 01:04:47,920 the country. But they have a problem. 1187 01:04:45,920 --> 01:04:51,119 They are staring at [music] a black box 1188 01:04:47,920 --> 01:04:54,160 of toxic debt worth trillions and no 1189 01:04:51,119 --> 01:04:57,280 tools to open it. There is only one 1190 01:04:54,160 --> 01:04:59,440 person who has the map. One person who 1191 01:04:57,280 --> 01:05:02,160 spent the last 20 years [music] building 1192 01:04:59,440 --> 01:05:04,559 a digital unblinking eye that can see 1193 01:05:02,160 --> 01:05:06,079 through the wreckage. The government 1194 01:05:04,559 --> 01:05:08,319 didn't call the [music] big banks to 1195 01:05:06,079 --> 01:05:10,880 save the world. They needed someone to 1196 01:05:08,319 --> 01:05:12,640 handle the toxic waste. And there was 1197 01:05:10,880 --> 01:05:14,480 only one man that could lead through 1198 01:05:12,640 --> 01:05:18,920 that darkness. 1199 01:05:14,480 --> 01:05:18,920 They called Larry Frink. 1200 01:05:20,319 --> 01:05:25,960 Larry Frink, the man behind Black Rock. 1201 01:05:26,720 --> 01:05:33,200 Today, he manages more money than the 1202 01:05:28,880 --> 01:05:35,440 GDP of almost every nation on Earth, $14 1203 01:05:33,200 --> 01:05:37,440 trillion. [music] 1204 01:05:35,440 --> 01:05:39,760 But before he was the shadow sovereign 1205 01:05:37,440 --> 01:05:41,440 of Wall Street, he was a man who lost 1206 01:05:39,760 --> 01:05:43,839 everything. 1207 01:05:41,440 --> 01:05:46,400 Who is Larry Frink? [music] 1208 01:05:43,839 --> 01:05:48,240 Lawrence D.Fin, also known as Larry 1209 01:05:46,400 --> 01:05:51,280 Frink, is [music] one of the co-founders 1210 01:05:48,240 --> 01:05:54,079 of Black Rockck. He is also the chairman 1211 01:05:51,280 --> 01:05:55,680 and CEO of the company, the largest 1212 01:05:54,079 --> 01:05:58,880 money [music] management firm in the 1213 01:05:55,680 --> 01:06:00,640 world. It's the first time in history a 1214 01:05:58,880 --> 01:06:03,280 company manages to reach such a 1215 01:06:00,640 --> 01:06:05,760 milestone and gives a clear picture of 1216 01:06:03,280 --> 01:06:08,400 how Black Rockck [music] operates. Not 1217 01:06:05,760 --> 01:06:10,720 just a traditional investment bank, but 1218 01:06:08,400 --> 01:06:12,480 as a central pillar of the global 1219 01:06:10,720 --> 01:06:14,720 financial infrastructure, [music] 1220 01:06:12,480 --> 01:06:17,200 where its sheer scale allows it to 1221 01:06:14,720 --> 01:06:19,280 influence economies and industries at a 1222 01:06:17,200 --> 01:06:22,400 level previously reserved only for 1223 01:06:19,280 --> 01:06:25,359 nation states. [music] 1224 01:06:22,400 --> 01:06:28,319 Founded in 1988 as an investment firm 1225 01:06:25,359 --> 01:06:29,520 that prioritized risk management with 1226 01:06:28,319 --> 01:06:32,720 11.5 [music] 1227 01:06:29,520 --> 01:06:35,680 to 14 trillion under management, Black 1228 01:06:32,720 --> 01:06:37,200 Rockck's influence is staggering. 1229 01:06:35,680 --> 01:06:39,839 BlackRock [music] is a top three 1230 01:06:37,200 --> 01:06:43,920 shareholder in nearly every company in 1231 01:06:39,839 --> 01:06:47,039 the S&P 500 from Apple [music] to Exxon, 1232 01:06:43,920 --> 01:06:50,079 from Microsoft to Nestle. They don't 1233 01:06:47,039 --> 01:06:51,839 just invest in the market, they are the 1234 01:06:50,079 --> 01:06:54,541 market. 1235 01:06:51,839 --> 01:06:56,960 But its reach is personal. It holds 1236 01:06:54,541 --> 01:06:59,359 [music] the retirement dreams of over 35 1237 01:06:56,960 --> 01:07:01,920 million Americans. This is the [music] 1238 01:06:59,359 --> 01:07:04,559 story of how a kid from a California 1239 01:07:01,920 --> 01:07:09,039 shoe store became the custodian of the 1240 01:07:04,559 --> 01:07:10,160 world's wealth. But who is Larry Frink? 1241 01:07:09,039 --> 01:07:12,720 Lawrence Douglas [music] 1242 01:07:10,160 --> 01:07:15,200 Frink entered the world on November the 1243 01:07:12,720 --> 01:07:17,599 2nd, 1952. 1244 01:07:15,200 --> 01:07:19,760 Born [music] in Los Angeles, California, 1245 01:07:17,599 --> 01:07:21,680 he was raised in a Jewish family in the 1246 01:07:19,760 --> 01:07:24,240 heart of San Fernando Valley, [music] 1247 01:07:21,680 --> 01:07:26,480 the quintessential American suburb of 1248 01:07:24,240 --> 01:07:28,079 Vanois. 1249 01:07:26,480 --> 01:07:31,280 His home was a balance of [music] 1250 01:07:28,079 --> 01:07:33,359 academic discipline and retail grit. His 1251 01:07:31,280 --> 01:07:35,280 mother, Leela, was an English professor 1252 01:07:33,359 --> 01:07:37,119 who valued the power [music] of language 1253 01:07:35,280 --> 01:07:39,039 and education. 1254 01:07:37,119 --> 01:07:41,359 And long before he pulled the strings of 1255 01:07:39,039 --> 01:07:43,200 the global economy, Larry Frink was 1256 01:07:41,359 --> 01:07:45,119 learning the value of money [music] on a 1257 01:07:43,200 --> 01:07:48,000 much smaller scale. 1258 01:07:45,119 --> 01:07:50,160 his father's shoe store in Vanoise where 1259 01:07:48,000 --> 01:07:52,799 he spent evenings helping and learning 1260 01:07:50,160 --> 01:07:55,039 the business. As one [music] of three 1261 01:07:52,799 --> 01:07:56,766 children, Larry grew up in a household 1262 01:07:55,039 --> 01:07:57,599 where hard work wasn't just encouraged, 1263 01:07:56,766 --> 01:07:59,680 [music] 1264 01:07:57,599 --> 01:08:01,760 it was the baseline. 1265 01:07:59,680 --> 01:08:03,760 While he often joked he wasn't the 1266 01:08:01,760 --> 01:08:05,440 smartest in the room, it was this 1267 01:08:03,760 --> 01:08:08,079 specific [music] combination of his 1268 01:08:05,440 --> 01:08:10,480 mother's intellectual curiosity and his 1269 01:08:08,079 --> 01:08:12,640 father's mainstream business sense that 1270 01:08:10,480 --> 01:08:15,599 would eventually form the DNA of [music] 1271 01:08:12,640 --> 01:08:17,120 a global financial giant. While the 1272 01:08:15,599 --> 01:08:19,199 future titans of Wall Street [music] 1273 01:08:17,120 --> 01:08:23,040 were rubbing elbows in the marble halls 1274 01:08:19,199 --> 01:08:24,560 of Harvard or Yale, Think was a brewin. 1275 01:08:23,040 --> 01:08:27,120 In 1970, [music] 1276 01:08:24,560 --> 01:08:29,279 Larry arrived at UCLA. 1277 01:08:27,120 --> 01:08:32,080 For a young man from Vanoise, [music] 1278 01:08:29,279 --> 01:08:34,480 this wasn't just a local university. It 1279 01:08:32,080 --> 01:08:36,640 was a world of ideas. 1280 01:08:34,480 --> 01:08:38,880 But it was in his final years that the 1281 01:08:36,640 --> 01:08:40,719 trajectory of his life shifted. [music] 1282 01:08:38,880 --> 01:08:43,040 He immersed himself in political 1283 01:08:40,719 --> 01:08:45,920 science, learning how power moves 1284 01:08:43,040 --> 01:08:47,839 through nations. But he soon realized 1285 01:08:45,920 --> 01:08:50,480 that in the modern [music] world, power 1286 01:08:47,839 --> 01:08:52,239 follows the money. This led him to the 1287 01:08:50,480 --> 01:08:54,799 Anderson School of Management 1288 01:08:52,239 --> 01:08:56,799 specializing [music] in real estate. It 1289 01:08:54,799 --> 01:08:58,640 was here that he began to see the world 1290 01:08:56,799 --> 01:09:00,560 through the lens of assets and [music] 1291 01:08:58,640 --> 01:09:02,480 yields. 1292 01:09:00,560 --> 01:09:04,640 This public education gave him a 1293 01:09:02,480 --> 01:09:06,799 different edge. While his [music] peers 1294 01:09:04,640 --> 01:09:09,040 at private East Coast schools were being 1295 01:09:06,799 --> 01:09:11,759 groomed for traditional corporate roles, 1296 01:09:09,040 --> 01:09:13,759 Larry was developing the outsider's eye, 1297 01:09:11,759 --> 01:09:16,000 a perspective that allowed him to see 1298 01:09:13,759 --> 01:09:20,159 opportunities in the messy, unpolished 1299 01:09:16,000 --> 01:09:20,159 corners of the bond market. 1300 01:09:20,799 --> 01:09:26,560 He graduated in 1976, [music] not with a 1301 01:09:24,080 --> 01:09:28,480 silver spoon, but with a California bred 1302 01:09:26,560 --> 01:09:30,159 ambition to take on the giants of 1303 01:09:28,480 --> 01:09:32,398 Manhattan. 1304 01:09:30,159 --> 01:09:34,560 He was a brewin headed for Wall Street, 1305 01:09:32,398 --> 01:09:38,520 [music] and the financial world had no 1306 01:09:34,560 --> 01:09:38,520 idea what was coming. 1307 01:09:38,947 --> 01:09:43,279 [music] 1308 01:09:40,640 --> 01:09:45,120 The year is 1976. 1309 01:09:43,279 --> 01:09:47,279 New York City is a grit cover 1310 01:09:45,120 --> 01:09:50,000 battlefield and Larry Frink has just 1311 01:09:47,279 --> 01:09:52,319 been handed the keys to the kingdom. 1312 01:09:50,000 --> 01:09:54,560 Goldman Sachs, the most prestigious name 1313 01:09:52,319 --> 01:09:57,840 in finance back then, has practically 1314 01:09:54,560 --> 01:10:00,880 hired him. He had passed the technical 1315 01:09:57,840 --> 01:10:02,640 tests. He had charmed the partners. All 1316 01:10:00,880 --> 01:10:05,199 that remained was a rubber stamp 1317 01:10:02,640 --> 01:10:08,640 interview with human resources. 1318 01:10:05,199 --> 01:10:11,280 But Larry, Larry wasn't just confident, 1319 01:10:08,640 --> 01:10:13,120 he was impatient. When the recruiter 1320 01:10:11,280 --> 01:10:15,600 asked for his thoughts on the firm, 1321 01:10:13,120 --> 01:10:18,239 Larry didn't give a thank you. He gave a 1322 01:10:15,600 --> 01:10:20,719 consultation. He pointed out the flaws 1323 01:10:18,239 --> 01:10:23,840 in their system. At Goldman, they wanted 1324 01:10:20,719 --> 01:10:27,159 a soldier. Larry was already acting like 1325 01:10:23,840 --> 01:10:27,159 a general. 1326 01:10:28,640 --> 01:10:34,000 In that room, the rigid Golden Way 1327 01:10:30,960 --> 01:10:36,159 clashed with the unfiltered Finink way. 1328 01:10:34,000 --> 01:10:39,520 Before he could even hail a camp back to 1329 01:10:36,159 --> 01:10:41,840 his hotel, the offer was dead. The most 1330 01:10:39,520 --> 01:10:44,159 coveted job in Wall Street history had 1331 01:10:41,840 --> 01:10:46,080 vanished. All because Larry Frink 1332 01:10:44,159 --> 01:10:49,360 couldn't stop himself from trying to fix 1333 01:10:46,080 --> 01:10:52,400 a system he hadn't even joined yet. It 1334 01:10:49,360 --> 01:10:54,880 was a crushing blow. But in the shadow 1335 01:10:52,400 --> 01:10:57,120 of that rejection, a door opened at a 1336 01:10:54,880 --> 01:10:59,600 scrappy second tier firm called First 1337 01:10:57,120 --> 01:11:02,960 Boston. It was a place with less 1338 01:10:59,600 --> 01:11:05,280 prestige but more white space. At 1339 01:11:02,960 --> 01:11:08,320 Goldman, he would have been a cog in a 1340 01:11:05,280 --> 01:11:11,199 perfect machine. At First Boston, he was 1341 01:11:08,320 --> 01:11:13,199 the architect. He was given a desk, a 1342 01:11:11,199 --> 01:11:15,520 telephone, and the freedom to build 1343 01:11:13,199 --> 01:11:18,400 something entirely new. The 1344 01:11:15,520 --> 01:11:21,120 mortgagebacked security. He didn't know 1345 01:11:18,400 --> 01:11:23,760 it yet, but that recruiters know was the 1346 01:11:21,120 --> 01:11:28,760 foundation upon which the $14 trillion 1347 01:11:23,760 --> 01:11:28,760 empire of Black Rockck would be built. 1348 01:11:33,760 --> 01:11:39,199 It's 1976 when [music] Larry Frink 1349 01:11:36,400 --> 01:11:41,520 arrives at First Boston. At the time, 1350 01:11:39,199 --> 01:11:44,159 the firm was the scrappy underdog of 1351 01:11:41,520 --> 01:11:46,640 investment banking. It wasn't as stiff 1352 01:11:44,159 --> 01:11:49,040 as Morgan [music] Stanley or as elitist 1353 01:11:46,640 --> 01:11:51,280 as Goldman. It was the perfect 1354 01:11:49,040 --> 01:11:54,480 laboratory for a man who didn't fit the 1355 01:11:51,280 --> 01:11:56,719 mold. Larry was assigned to the bond 1356 01:11:54,480 --> 01:11:58,719 department. Back then, bonds [music] 1357 01:11:56,719 --> 01:11:59,920 were considered the boring corner of 1358 01:11:58,719 --> 01:12:02,800 finance. 1359 01:11:59,920 --> 01:12:05,840 It was where you went to retire. Stocks 1360 01:12:02,800 --> 01:12:08,239 were sexy. Bonds were for grandmothers. 1361 01:12:05,840 --> 01:12:10,320 But Larry [music] saw something everyone 1362 01:12:08,239 --> 01:12:12,320 else missed. 1363 01:12:10,320 --> 01:12:14,640 He looked at the American dream, [music] 1364 01:12:12,320 --> 01:12:17,760 the suburban house, the white picket 1365 01:12:14,640 --> 01:12:19,679 fence, the 30-year mortgage, and he saw 1366 01:12:17,760 --> 01:12:21,679 a math problem. 1367 01:12:19,679 --> 01:12:24,159 He realized that if you took thousands 1368 01:12:21,679 --> 01:12:25,520 of individual home mortgages, bundled 1369 01:12:24,159 --> 01:12:28,000 them together [music] like a deck of 1370 01:12:25,520 --> 01:12:32,000 cards, and sold slices of that deck to 1371 01:12:28,000 --> 01:12:34,880 investors, you created a money machine. 1372 01:12:32,000 --> 01:12:36,400 This was the birth of the securitization 1373 01:12:34,880 --> 01:12:38,800 market. 1374 01:12:36,400 --> 01:12:41,199 What Larry Frink helped create was more 1375 01:12:38,800 --> 01:12:45,080 than a [music] financial product. It was 1376 01:12:41,199 --> 01:12:45,080 a structural shift. 1377 01:12:45,360 --> 01:12:50,400 Securitization didn't just bundle 1378 01:12:47,520 --> 01:12:53,520 mortgages. It separated risk from 1379 01:12:50,400 --> 01:12:55,360 reality. For the first time, financial 1380 01:12:53,520 --> 01:12:57,360 value could travel faster [music] than 1381 01:12:55,360 --> 01:13:00,640 the underlying economy that supported 1382 01:12:57,360 --> 01:13:02,640 it. A house in California became a line 1383 01:13:00,640 --> 01:13:05,040 in a spreadsheet in New York, which 1384 01:13:02,640 --> 01:13:08,080 became a yield sold to an investor in 1385 01:13:05,040 --> 01:13:10,515 Tokyo. Risk no longer lived where 1386 01:13:08,080 --> 01:13:11,120 decisions were made. It was abstracted, 1387 01:13:10,515 --> 01:13:13,520 [music] 1388 01:13:11,120 --> 01:13:16,239 sliced, repackaged, and distributed 1389 01:13:13,520 --> 01:13:17,840 across the system. This was the moment 1390 01:13:16,239 --> 01:13:20,480 when finance [music] stopped reflecting 1391 01:13:17,840 --> 01:13:23,520 the real economy and began building a 1392 01:13:20,480 --> 01:13:25,600 parallel one. A system that could grow 1393 01:13:23,520 --> 01:13:28,080 without limits as long as everyone 1394 01:13:25,600 --> 01:13:31,040 believed the models were right. And for 1395 01:13:28,080 --> 01:13:33,600 a while [music] they were. 1396 01:13:31,040 --> 01:13:36,159 By the early 80s, Larry was the golden 1397 01:13:33,600 --> 01:13:38,640 boy. He wasn't just hitting targets, he 1398 01:13:36,159 --> 01:13:40,800 was shattering them. In one year, his 1399 01:13:38,640 --> 01:13:42,880 department was responsible for nearly 1400 01:13:40,800 --> 01:13:46,000 onethird of First Boston's total 1401 01:13:42,880 --> 01:13:48,239 profits. At age 31, he became the 1402 01:13:46,000 --> 01:13:51,199 youngest managing director the firm had 1403 01:13:48,239 --> 01:13:53,679 ever seen. He was earning millions. He 1404 01:13:51,199 --> 01:13:56,480 was the successor for Prodigy, the man 1405 01:13:53,679 --> 01:13:59,199 who could do no wrong. He had moved to 1406 01:13:56,480 --> 01:14:01,600 his family to a sprawling estate. He was 1407 01:13:59,199 --> 01:14:02,880 flying private. He had conquered the 1408 01:14:01,600 --> 01:14:06,199 grit cover battlefield [music] 1409 01:14:02,880 --> 01:14:06,199 of Manhattan. 1410 01:14:06,719 --> 01:14:11,120 But in the world of high finance, the 1411 01:14:08,880 --> 01:14:14,120 higher you fly, the thinner the air 1412 01:14:11,120 --> 01:14:14,120 becomes. 1413 01:14:15,600 --> 01:14:19,920 Larry was making hundreds of millions 1414 01:14:17,520 --> 01:14:22,566 for the bank, but there was a ghost in 1415 01:14:19,920 --> 01:14:25,120 the machine, a variable he hadn't 1416 01:14:22,566 --> 01:14:26,640 [music] accounted for. The year was 1417 01:14:25,120 --> 01:14:28,960 1986. 1418 01:14:26,640 --> 01:14:31,679 Larry had made a massive bet on interest 1419 01:14:28,960 --> 01:14:35,280 rates. He believed they would stay 1420 01:14:31,679 --> 01:14:37,280 stable. He was so sure of his math, so 1421 01:14:35,280 --> 01:14:39,280 confident in his track record that he 1422 01:14:37,280 --> 01:14:41,679 didn't realize the ground was shifting 1423 01:14:39,280 --> 01:14:43,600 beneath his feet. 1424 01:14:41,679 --> 01:14:45,840 In just 3 months, the Golden Boys 1425 01:14:43,600 --> 01:14:49,199 department went from profit to a 1426 01:14:45,840 --> 01:14:52,000 catastrophic $100 million [music] loss. 1427 01:14:49,199 --> 01:14:54,880 In the 80s, 100 million wasn't just a 1428 01:14:52,000 --> 01:14:56,320 loss. It was a national scandal. 1429 01:14:54,880 --> 01:14:58,880 Overnight, the man who [music] was 1430 01:14:56,320 --> 01:15:01,199 supposed to run the bank was a pariah. 1431 01:14:58,880 --> 01:15:03,280 The phones stopped ringing. The friends 1432 01:15:01,199 --> 01:15:05,920 on the trading floor looked away when he 1433 01:15:03,280 --> 01:15:08,719 walked by. He had been the smartest man 1434 01:15:05,920 --> 01:15:10,719 in the room until he wasn't. [music] 1435 01:15:08,719 --> 01:15:13,920 He would later describe this moment as 1436 01:15:10,719 --> 01:15:15,840 the most painful experience of my life. 1437 01:15:13,920 --> 01:15:18,239 But as he sat in the ruins of his 1438 01:15:15,840 --> 01:15:19,679 reputation, Larry Frink wasn't just 1439 01:15:18,239 --> 01:15:23,040 mourning his career. [music] 1440 01:15:19,679 --> 01:15:25,760 He was obsessed with one question. How 1441 01:15:23,040 --> 01:15:28,239 did I not see the risk? 1442 01:15:25,760 --> 01:15:30,640 That obsession, the fear of the unknown 1443 01:15:28,239 --> 01:15:34,280 variable, would become the cornerstone 1444 01:15:30,640 --> 01:15:34,280 of Black Rockck. 1445 01:15:37,440 --> 01:15:42,477 By 1983, Larry wasn't just selling 1446 01:15:40,239 --> 01:15:43,679 bonds, he was a pioneer of the CMO, 1447 01:15:42,477 --> 01:15:48,120 [music] 1448 01:15:43,679 --> 01:15:48,120 collateralized mortgage obligation. 1449 01:15:48,320 --> 01:15:53,280 Think of it like a waterfall. Larry took 1450 01:15:51,120 --> 01:15:56,239 thousands of mortgages and sliced them 1451 01:15:53,280 --> 01:15:59,360 into tranches. Some investors took the 1452 01:15:56,239 --> 01:16:02,480 top slice, low risk, low reward. Others 1453 01:15:59,360 --> 01:16:03,760 took the bottom, high risk, high yield. 1454 01:16:02,480 --> 01:16:06,239 It was a masterpiece [music] of 1455 01:16:03,760 --> 01:16:10,000 financial engineering. It made the 1456 01:16:06,239 --> 01:16:13,199 illquid liquid. It made first Boston the 1457 01:16:10,000 --> 01:16:15,360 center of the universe. 1458 01:16:13,199 --> 01:16:18,320 But there was a flaw, a tiny 1459 01:16:15,360 --> 01:16:20,320 mathematical ghost in his models. 1460 01:16:18,320 --> 01:16:22,640 Larry's team had predicted that interest 1461 01:16:20,320 --> 01:16:25,120 rates would rise and they hedged their 1462 01:16:22,640 --> 01:16:28,159 bets accordingly. But in the second 1463 01:16:25,120 --> 01:16:30,480 quarter of 1986, rates did something the 1464 01:16:28,159 --> 01:16:32,080 models said was impossible. They 1465 01:16:30,480 --> 01:16:33,840 plummeted 1466 01:16:32,080 --> 01:16:36,159 because they didn't have a system to 1467 01:16:33,840 --> 01:16:38,320 track their real-time exposure. Larry 1468 01:16:36,159 --> 01:16:41,360 was [music] flying blind. He was the 1469 01:16:38,320 --> 01:16:44,000 pilot of a Boeing 747 trying to land in 1470 01:16:41,360 --> 01:16:46,640 a storm using nothing but a compass and 1471 01:16:44,000 --> 01:16:48,719 a prayer. By the time he realized the 1472 01:16:46,640 --> 01:16:51,280 engines were on fire, the plane had 1473 01:16:48,719 --> 01:16:52,800 already hit the [music] mountain. $100 1474 01:16:51,280 --> 01:16:56,120 million. 1475 01:16:52,800 --> 01:16:56,120 All gone. 1476 01:16:58,239 --> 01:17:03,520 He wasn't just fired, he was erased. 1477 01:17:01,440 --> 01:17:06,560 After the dust settled, Larry found 1478 01:17:03,520 --> 01:17:09,600 himself in a peculiar kind of exile. He 1479 01:17:06,560 --> 01:17:11,558 wasn't just unemployed, he was haunted. 1480 01:17:09,600 --> 01:17:14,080 He realized that the $100 million 1481 01:17:11,558 --> 01:17:16,719 [music] loss wasn't a failure of talent, 1482 01:17:14,080 --> 01:17:19,360 it was a failure of vision. What 1483 01:17:16,719 --> 01:17:20,960 happened in 1986 wasn't a personal 1484 01:17:19,360 --> 01:17:24,080 miscalculation. 1485 01:17:20,960 --> 01:17:25,968 It was a systemic blindness. 1486 01:17:24,080 --> 01:17:28,560 At the time, every major financial 1487 01:17:25,968 --> 01:17:31,863 [music] institution operated the same 1488 01:17:28,560 --> 01:17:34,320 way. Positions were fragmented. Exposure 1489 01:17:31,863 --> 01:17:37,600 [music] was estimated, not measured. 1490 01:17:34,320 --> 01:17:39,360 Risk was inferred after the fact. Banks 1491 01:17:37,600 --> 01:17:42,320 knew what they bought [music] yesterday, 1492 01:17:39,360 --> 01:17:44,800 but not what it was worth right now. The 1493 01:17:42,320 --> 01:17:47,840 system rewarded speed, volume, and 1494 01:17:44,800 --> 01:17:49,440 confidence, not understanding. And as 1495 01:17:47,840 --> 01:17:52,320 long as markets [music] moved slowly, 1496 01:17:49,440 --> 01:17:54,239 the illusion held. But once volatility 1497 01:17:52,320 --> 01:17:57,199 entered the market, no one truly [music] 1498 01:17:54,239 --> 01:17:59,920 knew where the danger was or how large 1499 01:17:57,199 --> 01:18:02,320 it had become. Larry didn't [music] just 1500 01:17:59,920 --> 01:18:03,959 lose money. He realized the entire 1501 01:18:02,320 --> 01:18:06,640 financial system was flying without 1502 01:18:03,959 --> 01:18:08,719 [music] instruments. Wall Street was 1503 01:18:06,640 --> 01:18:12,480 essentially a collection of blind 1504 01:18:08,719 --> 01:18:15,094 giants. Every major firm, Goldman, 1505 01:18:12,480 --> 01:18:16,880 Layman, Meil Lynch was standing just 1506 01:18:15,094 --> 01:18:20,800 [music] one inch away from total 1507 01:18:16,880 --> 01:18:22,719 collapse at any given second. Why? 1508 01:18:20,800 --> 01:18:25,600 Because they didn't actually know what 1509 01:18:22,719 --> 01:18:28,480 they owned. This was information 1510 01:18:25,600 --> 01:18:30,560 blindness. 1511 01:18:28,480 --> 01:18:32,800 In the [music] 1980s, you knew what you 1512 01:18:30,560 --> 01:18:35,760 bought yesterday, but you had no idea 1513 01:18:32,800 --> 01:18:38,080 what it was worth right now. A sudden 1514 01:18:35,760 --> 01:18:40,400 shift in interest rates [music] or a 1515 01:18:38,080 --> 01:18:42,800 political coup across the ocean could 1516 01:18:40,400 --> 01:18:46,080 vaporize a billion dollars before the 1517 01:18:42,800 --> 01:18:49,440 morning coffee [music] was poured. 1518 01:18:46,080 --> 01:18:52,000 Larry understood a terrifying truth. The 1519 01:18:49,440 --> 01:18:55,280 entire global financial system was built 1520 01:18:52,000 --> 01:18:57,199 on a foundation of guesswork. 1521 01:18:55,280 --> 01:18:59,840 It hit him with the force of an 1522 01:18:57,199 --> 01:19:02,159 epiphany. If he could build a [music] 1523 01:18:59,840 --> 01:19:04,640 brain, a machine that could see the risk 1524 01:19:02,159 --> 01:19:07,440 that humans were too slow to calculate, 1525 01:19:04,640 --> 01:19:09,440 he wouldn't just be a banker. He would 1526 01:19:07,440 --> 01:19:12,400 be the only man in the world with a 1527 01:19:09,440 --> 01:19:14,480 flashlight in a dark room. This 1528 01:19:12,400 --> 01:19:17,199 realization changed his entire 1529 01:19:14,480 --> 01:19:19,280 philosophy of investing. He stopped 1530 01:19:17,199 --> 01:19:21,840 looking for the big score and started 1531 01:19:19,280 --> 01:19:24,239 looking for the safe passage. He didn't 1532 01:19:21,840 --> 01:19:27,840 want to beat the market anymore. He 1533 01:19:24,239 --> 01:19:30,239 wanted to measure it. 1534 01:19:27,840 --> 01:19:33,520 He would later tell his partners, "We 1535 01:19:30,239 --> 01:19:35,600 are never going to be blind again." That 1536 01:19:33,520 --> 01:19:38,880 vow born from the humiliation [music] 1537 01:19:35,600 --> 01:19:42,000 of 1986 became the blueprint for a new 1538 01:19:38,880 --> 01:19:44,400 kind of firm. A firm that didn't rely on 1539 01:19:42,000 --> 01:19:49,320 the ego of a [music] star trader, but on 1540 01:19:44,400 --> 01:19:49,320 the cold, unblinking eye of technology. 1541 01:19:54,159 --> 01:20:00,159 Larry Frink was a man with a vision, but 1542 01:19:56,880 --> 01:20:02,000 he was also a man with a tainted resume. 1543 01:20:00,159 --> 01:20:04,719 To the rest of Wall Street, he was the 1544 01:20:02,000 --> 01:20:06,800 guy who lost a h 100red million. But to 1545 01:20:04,719 --> 01:20:09,440 a small circle of insiders at First 1546 01:20:06,800 --> 01:20:12,880 Boston, he was the only one who truly 1547 01:20:09,440 --> 01:20:15,679 understood why it happened. He began 1548 01:20:12,880 --> 01:20:18,239 making calls. He wasn't offering high 1549 01:20:15,679 --> 01:20:21,040 salaries or flashy offices. He was 1550 01:20:18,239 --> 01:20:23,199 offering a chance to build a holy grail, 1551 01:20:21,040 --> 01:20:25,440 a financial firm where technology 1552 01:20:23,199 --> 01:20:28,560 governed the ego, not the other way 1553 01:20:25,440 --> 01:20:30,680 round. And he eventually found the right 1554 01:20:28,560 --> 01:20:33,300 people to help him build that holy 1555 01:20:30,680 --> 01:20:34,320 [clears throat] grail. 1556 01:20:33,300 --> 01:20:38,400 [music] 1557 01:20:34,320 --> 01:20:40,560 Rob Capito, the enforcer, a powerhouse 1558 01:20:38,400 --> 01:20:43,199 trader who knew the plumbing of the bomb 1559 01:20:40,560 --> 01:20:45,199 market better than anyone else. He 1560 01:20:43,199 --> 01:20:48,800 provided the muscle Larry needed to 1561 01:20:45,199 --> 01:20:51,920 execute the vision. Ben Golib, the 1562 01:20:48,800 --> 01:20:54,560 Oracle, a PhD with a mind like a 1563 01:20:51,920 --> 01:20:57,360 supercomput. While other bankers were 1564 01:20:54,560 --> 01:20:59,840 focused on lunch reservations, Golib was 1565 01:20:57,360 --> 01:21:02,560 thinking about value at risk and Monte 1566 01:20:59,840 --> 01:21:06,080 Carlo simulations. 1567 01:21:02,560 --> 01:21:08,480 Susan Wagner, the mastermind, 1568 01:21:06,080 --> 01:21:10,080 brilliant, calculating, and capable of 1569 01:21:08,480 --> 01:21:12,320 seeing structural flaws in a 1570 01:21:10,080 --> 01:21:14,640 multi-billion dollar merger before a 1571 01:21:12,320 --> 01:21:17,280 single paper was signed. Along with 1572 01:21:14,640 --> 01:21:19,520 Barbara Novik, Ralph Schloststein, Q 1573 01:21:17,280 --> 01:21:22,719 Freighter, and Keith Anderson, they 1574 01:21:19,520 --> 01:21:24,480 became the original eight. Frink wasn't 1575 01:21:22,719 --> 01:21:27,840 looking for bankers who would run after 1576 01:21:24,480 --> 01:21:30,880 the money. He wanted architects, people 1577 01:21:27,840 --> 01:21:32,880 who were tired of being blind. 1578 01:21:30,880 --> 01:21:35,520 When he found them, they met in living 1579 01:21:32,880 --> 01:21:37,440 rooms and coffee shops. They had the 1580 01:21:35,520 --> 01:21:40,400 blueprints for a system they called 1581 01:21:37,440 --> 01:21:43,199 Aladdin, an acronym for asset, 1582 01:21:40,400 --> 01:21:46,159 liability, debt, and derivative 1583 01:21:43,199 --> 01:21:48,640 investment network. It was designed to 1584 01:21:46,159 --> 01:21:50,800 be the unblinking eye Larry had dreamed 1585 01:21:48,640 --> 01:21:52,960 of in his exile. 1586 01:21:50,800 --> 01:21:55,840 But a brain without a body is just a 1587 01:21:52,960 --> 01:21:59,199 dream. To build Aladdin, they needed 1588 01:21:55,840 --> 01:22:00,960 hardware. They needed offices. And most 1589 01:21:59,199 --> 01:22:03,520 importantly, they needed the one thing 1590 01:22:00,960 --> 01:22:06,080 Larry's reputation had cost him. 1591 01:22:03,520 --> 01:22:08,320 Capital. Aladdin was not designed to 1592 01:22:06,080 --> 01:22:10,719 beat the market. It was designed to 1593 01:22:08,320 --> 01:22:13,600 understand it. But its real power 1594 01:22:10,719 --> 01:22:16,880 emerged when others started using it. 1595 01:22:13,600 --> 01:22:19,920 Banks, insurance companies, pension 1596 01:22:16,880 --> 01:22:22,080 funds, sovereign institutions. As 1597 01:22:19,920 --> 01:22:25,600 Aladdin spread, something subtle 1598 01:22:22,080 --> 01:22:28,639 happened. Risk stopped being subjective. 1599 01:22:25,600 --> 01:22:31,199 It became standardized. When Aladdin 1600 01:22:28,639 --> 01:22:35,239 flagged an asset as dangerous, entire 1601 01:22:31,199 --> 01:22:35,239 markets adjusted accordingly. 1602 01:22:35,360 --> 01:22:40,719 Not because Larry Frink said so, but 1603 01:22:37,760 --> 01:22:42,560 because the system trusted the model. At 1604 01:22:40,719 --> 01:22:45,040 that point, Black Rockck was no longer 1605 01:22:42,560 --> 01:22:46,922 just managing money. It was helping 1606 01:22:45,040 --> 01:22:48,159 define how risk itself was understood. 1607 01:22:46,922 --> 01:22:50,560 [music] 1608 01:22:48,159 --> 01:22:54,280 And whoever defines risk defines the 1609 01:22:50,560 --> 01:22:54,280 boundaries of decisionmaking. 1610 01:23:02,800 --> 01:23:08,239 Enter Steven Schwartzman. In 1988, 1611 01:23:06,080 --> 01:23:11,360 Schwartzman was the rising king of 1612 01:23:08,239 --> 01:23:15,040 private equity. His firm Blackstone was 1613 01:23:11,360 --> 01:23:17,679 aggressive, wealthy, and hungry. 1614 01:23:15,040 --> 01:23:20,800 The meeting was tense. Schwartzman knew 1615 01:23:17,679 --> 01:23:24,239 Larry's history. He knew about the 1986 1616 01:23:20,800 --> 01:23:27,920 disaster. But Larry didn't hide from it. 1617 01:23:24,239 --> 01:23:29,920 He used it as his primary selling point. 1618 01:23:27,920 --> 01:23:31,920 Because Larry had seen the end of the 1619 01:23:29,920 --> 01:23:34,239 world already, [music] he knew exactly 1620 01:23:31,920 --> 01:23:36,320 how the lights went out. And because of 1621 01:23:34,239 --> 01:23:38,800 that, he was the only one who knew how 1622 01:23:36,320 --> 01:23:41,520 to keep them on. 1623 01:23:38,800 --> 01:23:43,520 Larry's pitch was revolutionary. He 1624 01:23:41,520 --> 01:23:46,400 didn't want to start a hedge fund. He 1625 01:23:43,520 --> 01:23:48,480 wanted to create a fiduciary company. 1626 01:23:46,400 --> 01:23:50,719 a firm that managed other people's money 1627 01:23:48,480 --> 01:23:54,000 with the same technological rigor 1628 01:23:50,719 --> 01:23:56,400 usually reserved for NASA. He asked for 1629 01:23:54,000 --> 01:23:59,120 a $5 million credit line and a 1630 01:23:56,400 --> 01:24:02,159 partnership. In exchange, Schwartzman 1631 01:23:59,120 --> 01:24:03,920 would own 50% of the new venture. He 1632 01:24:02,159 --> 01:24:06,320 knew he was buying cheap [music] because 1633 01:24:03,920 --> 01:24:09,199 he was buying on a distressed asset, 1634 01:24:06,320 --> 01:24:11,199 Think's damaged reputation. 1635 01:24:09,199 --> 01:24:12,800 But he did so betting on the idea that 1636 01:24:11,199 --> 01:24:14,880 the [music] experience had turned Larry 1637 01:24:12,800 --> 01:24:17,840 Frink into some sort of financial 1638 01:24:14,880 --> 01:24:21,120 genius. 1639 01:24:17,840 --> 01:24:23,760 The deal was done. On a Friday in March 1640 01:24:21,120 --> 01:24:25,600 1988, the team moved into a single 1641 01:24:23,760 --> 01:24:27,199 cramped room within Blackstone's [music] 1642 01:24:25,600 --> 01:24:29,840 offices. 1643 01:24:27,199 --> 01:24:31,520 They were five computers, a few folding 1644 01:24:29,840 --> 01:24:33,840 chairs, and a mountain of cables [music] 1645 01:24:31,520 --> 01:24:36,480 on the floor. They were under the 1646 01:24:33,840 --> 01:24:37,760 Blackstone umbrella, but Larry knew that 1647 01:24:36,480 --> 01:24:39,920 this was just [music] a temporary 1648 01:24:37,760 --> 01:24:43,360 shelter. He didn't just want a 1649 01:24:39,920 --> 01:24:45,920 department. He wanted an empire. He had 1650 01:24:43,360 --> 01:24:48,000 the money. He had the team. And in the 1651 01:24:45,920 --> 01:24:50,080 corner of that small room, the first 1652 01:24:48,000 --> 01:24:52,560 lines of code for Aladdin were being 1653 01:24:50,080 --> 01:24:55,520 written. 1654 01:24:52,560 --> 01:24:57,520 The information blindness was over. The 1655 01:24:55,520 --> 01:25:02,040 era of Black Rock, though it didn't have 1656 01:24:57,520 --> 01:25:02,040 that name yet, had begun. 1657 01:25:03,819 --> 01:25:05,839 >> [music] 1658 01:25:06,080 --> 01:25:11,280 >> The first office of Blackstone Financial 1659 01:25:08,400 --> 01:25:13,760 Management wasn't a glass tower. It was 1660 01:25:11,280 --> 01:25:16,080 a glorified closet. [music] Because of 1661 01:25:13,760 --> 01:25:18,239 the heat generated by the early Sun 1662 01:25:16,080 --> 01:25:20,000 Micro Systemystems workstations, the 1663 01:25:18,239 --> 01:25:24,480 temperature in the room rarely dropped 1664 01:25:20,000 --> 01:25:26,320 below 80°, [music] 27° C. 1665 01:25:24,480 --> 01:25:28,800 While the rest of the Blackstone group 1666 01:25:26,320 --> 01:25:31,199 was out at expensive lunches closing 1667 01:25:28,800 --> 01:25:33,440 leveraged buyouts, Larry's original 1668 01:25:31,199 --> 01:25:35,600 eight [music] were building a digital 1669 01:25:33,440 --> 01:25:37,879 fortress. 1670 01:25:35,600 --> 01:25:39,199 They were the weirdos in the basement. 1671 01:25:37,879 --> 01:25:42,320 [music] It was here that the name 1672 01:25:39,199 --> 01:25:44,639 Aladdin became a living thing. Every 1673 01:25:42,320 --> 01:25:47,840 day, Ben Golab and his team fed [music] 1674 01:25:44,639 --> 01:25:49,840 it data. Interest rates, housing prices, 1675 01:25:47,840 --> 01:25:51,679 historical crashes. They [music] were 1676 01:25:49,840 --> 01:25:56,840 teaching the machine to be afraid of 1677 01:25:51,679 --> 01:25:56,840 everything Larry hadn't seen in 1986. 1678 01:26:00,480 --> 01:26:04,719 By 1992, the department inside 1679 01:26:03,199 --> 01:26:07,920 Blackstone was no [music] longer a 1680 01:26:04,719 --> 01:26:11,760 startup. It was a powerhouse. Larry's 1681 01:26:07,920 --> 01:26:13,360 team was managing $17 billion. 1682 01:26:11,760 --> 01:26:15,214 They weren't just a side project 1683 01:26:13,360 --> 01:26:16,639 anymore. They were a significant 1684 01:26:15,214 --> 01:26:19,600 [singing] engine of Blackstone's [music] 1685 01:26:16,639 --> 01:26:21,120 growth. But with success came a toxic 1686 01:26:19,600 --> 01:26:23,360 byproduct, 1687 01:26:21,120 --> 01:26:26,000 identity confusion. 1688 01:26:23,360 --> 01:26:27,440 Clients were getting confused. They 1689 01:26:26,000 --> 01:26:30,080 would call [music] Blackstone looking 1690 01:26:27,440 --> 01:26:32,560 for Larry's bond expertise or call Larry 1691 01:26:30,080 --> 01:26:33,360 looking for Schwarzman's buyouts. But 1692 01:26:32,560 --> 01:26:35,840 the friction [music and singing] went 1693 01:26:33,360 --> 01:26:38,000 deeper than a name. It was a war of 1694 01:26:35,840 --> 01:26:41,440 philosophies. Schwartzman was a 1695 01:26:38,000 --> 01:26:43,840 dealmaker. He wanted to own companies. 1696 01:26:41,440 --> 01:26:46,960 Think was a fiduciary. He [music] wanted 1697 01:26:43,840 --> 01:26:49,120 to manage risk for others. 1698 01:26:46,960 --> 01:26:51,440 The tension was similar to having two 1699 01:26:49,120 --> 01:26:53,520 predators in a cage too small to fit 1700 01:26:51,440 --> 01:26:56,800 both. [music] The breaking point came 1701 01:26:53,520 --> 01:26:58,639 over equity. Larry wanted to use stock 1702 01:26:56,800 --> 01:27:01,199 to attract and keep the original [music] 1703 01:26:58,639 --> 01:27:03,840 eight and new talent. Schwarzman, 1704 01:27:01,199 --> 01:27:06,080 holding 50% of the firm, didn't want to 1705 01:27:03,840 --> 01:27:07,840 dilute his [music] state. The 1706 01:27:06,080 --> 01:27:10,890 partnership that saved Larry's career 1707 01:27:07,840 --> 01:27:11,600 was now suffocating his vision. In 1994, 1708 01:27:10,890 --> 01:27:15,280 [music] 1709 01:27:11,600 --> 01:27:17,280 they reached a deal. 1710 01:27:15,280 --> 01:27:20,715 Schwarzman agreed to sell Blackstone 1711 01:27:17,280 --> 01:27:22,159 steak for $240 million. At the time, 1712 01:27:20,715 --> 01:27:24,800 [music] it seemed like a win for 1713 01:27:22,159 --> 01:27:27,360 Schwarzman, a massive return on his $5 1714 01:27:24,800 --> 01:27:29,040 million investment. It wasn't [music] 1715 01:27:27,360 --> 01:27:31,600 just about money. It was about the 1716 01:27:29,040 --> 01:27:34,080 spotlight. Schwarzman was the king of 1717 01:27:31,600 --> 01:27:36,320 Wall Street. But his subtenant, Larry 1718 01:27:34,080 --> 01:27:39,055 Frink, was the one the New York Times 1719 01:27:36,320 --> 01:27:41,440 wanted to interview. But for Larry, it 1720 01:27:39,055 --> 01:27:43,679 [music] was the price of freedom. 1721 01:27:41,440 --> 01:27:45,440 Schwarzman would later call selling 1722 01:27:43,679 --> 01:27:48,480 Black Rockck the worst [music] mistake 1723 01:27:45,440 --> 01:27:51,040 of my career. For Larry, the divorce was 1724 01:27:48,480 --> 01:27:52,960 the moment the training wheels came off. 1725 01:27:51,040 --> 01:27:55,199 He was no longer under anyone's 1726 01:27:52,960 --> 01:27:57,840 umbrella. He was the [music] CEO of an 1727 01:27:55,199 --> 01:27:59,380 independent firm. Now he just had to 1728 01:27:57,840 --> 01:28:03,239 prove he could survive the coming storm 1729 01:27:59,380 --> 01:28:03,239 [music] of the late '90s. 1730 01:28:11,040 --> 01:28:16,880 It is 2008. The financial world was 1731 01:28:14,400 --> 01:28:19,199 experiencing a heart attack. The 1732 01:28:16,880 --> 01:28:21,440 financial smoothies that mortgage back 1733 01:28:19,199 --> 01:28:23,280 securities Larry had helped create 30 1734 01:28:21,440 --> 01:28:26,320 years earlier had turned into [music] a 1735 01:28:23,280 --> 01:28:28,639 global poison. Banks didn't know what 1736 01:28:26,320 --> 01:28:30,880 they owned, and more importantly, they 1737 01:28:28,639 --> 01:28:33,600 didn't know what their neighbors owned. 1738 01:28:30,880 --> 01:28:35,600 Trust had evaporated. 1739 01:28:33,600 --> 01:28:37,280 When the US government realized the 1740 01:28:35,600 --> 01:28:39,360 economy was on the brink of a total 1741 01:28:37,280 --> 01:28:43,280 blackout, they didn't call Goldman 1742 01:28:39,360 --> 01:28:45,679 Sachs. They didn't call JP Morgan. While 1743 01:28:43,280 --> 01:28:47,600 the CEOs of Layman and Merrill were 1744 01:28:45,679 --> 01:28:49,760 begging for government checks, Larry 1745 01:28:47,600 --> 01:28:52,000 Frink was the one the government called 1746 01:28:49,760 --> 01:28:54,239 to write the checks. 1747 01:28:52,000 --> 01:28:56,719 He was the only titan left standing with 1748 01:28:54,239 --> 01:28:58,800 a clean balance sheet. 1749 01:28:56,719 --> 01:29:00,960 The United States government didn't just 1750 01:28:58,800 --> 01:29:02,800 seek advice, it delegated 1751 01:29:00,960 --> 01:29:04,719 responsibility. 1752 01:29:02,800 --> 01:29:06,639 Black Rockck was tasked with valuing 1753 01:29:04,719 --> 01:29:09,040 assets [music] no one understood, 1754 01:29:06,639 --> 01:29:11,280 managing risks no one could measure and 1755 01:29:09,040 --> 01:29:14,320 stabilizing markets that were collapsing 1756 01:29:11,280 --> 01:29:16,719 in real time. 1757 01:29:14,320 --> 01:29:18,616 This wasn't a bailout. It was an 1758 01:29:16,719 --> 01:29:19,760 outsourcing of core sovereign functions. 1759 01:29:18,616 --> 01:29:21,600 [music] 1760 01:29:19,760 --> 01:29:23,600 For the first time, a private firm 1761 01:29:21,600 --> 01:29:26,560 played a central role in maintaining 1762 01:29:23,600 --> 01:29:27,920 global financial stability, not through 1763 01:29:26,560 --> 01:29:30,960 political authority, [music] 1764 01:29:27,920 --> 01:29:33,520 but through technical capability. 1765 01:29:30,960 --> 01:29:36,400 From that moment on, power was no longer 1766 01:29:33,520 --> 01:29:38,400 just about laws and institutions. It was 1767 01:29:36,400 --> 01:29:40,639 about who had the tools to see the 1768 01:29:38,400 --> 01:29:42,480 system clearly. 1769 01:29:40,639 --> 01:29:45,600 Black Rockck was hired to manage the 1770 01:29:42,480 --> 01:29:47,360 toxic waste of the crisis. They became 1771 01:29:45,600 --> 01:29:50,639 the official cleaner for the US 1772 01:29:47,360 --> 01:29:54,120 government, managing $130 billion of 1773 01:29:50,639 --> 01:29:54,120 troubled assets. 1774 01:29:54,159 --> 01:29:58,960 Suddenly, Larry Frink was the most 1775 01:29:56,639 --> 01:30:00,639 powerful man in the room, acting as an 1776 01:29:58,960 --> 01:30:02,159 adviser to the president and the 1777 01:30:00,639 --> 01:30:04,560 treasury. 1778 01:30:02,159 --> 01:30:07,360 But while he was saving the system, he 1779 01:30:04,560 --> 01:30:09,600 saw a once-ina-lifetime opportunity to 1780 01:30:07,360 --> 01:30:12,159 dominate it. In the middle of the 1781 01:30:09,600 --> 01:30:14,960 carnage, Barclay's bank in the UK was 1782 01:30:12,159 --> 01:30:17,199 desperate for cash. They needed to sell 1783 01:30:14,960 --> 01:30:18,960 their crown jewel, a division called 1784 01:30:17,199 --> 01:30:21,280 Barclay's Global Investors, [music] 1785 01:30:18,960 --> 01:30:23,360 which included a revolutionary product 1786 01:30:21,280 --> 01:30:26,082 called Eyesshares. 1787 01:30:23,360 --> 01:30:28,480 Eyesshares represented passive investing 1788 01:30:26,082 --> 01:30:31,199 [music] ETFs that track the whole market 1789 01:30:28,480 --> 01:30:33,040 rather than trying to beat it. It was 1790 01:30:31,199 --> 01:30:35,760 the ultimate expression of Larry's 1791 01:30:33,040 --> 01:30:38,400 philosophy. Stop betting on stars and 1792 01:30:35,760 --> 01:30:42,719 start owning the system. It was a 1793 01:30:38,400 --> 01:30:45,120 massive $13.5 billion gamble. 1794 01:30:42,719 --> 01:30:47,840 If the markets continue to fall, deal 1795 01:30:45,120 --> 01:30:50,080 could sink Black Rockck. But Larry knew 1796 01:30:47,840 --> 01:30:52,159 something the others didn't. He had 1797 01:30:50,080 --> 01:30:54,320 looked into the eye of Aladdin, and 1798 01:30:52,159 --> 01:30:57,199 Aladdin told him that the bottom was 1799 01:30:54,320 --> 01:31:00,159 near. With the acquisition of Eyesshares 1800 01:30:57,199 --> 01:31:02,800 in 2009, Black Rockck doubled its size 1801 01:31:00,159 --> 01:31:05,520 overnight. They weren't just a bond shop 1802 01:31:02,800 --> 01:31:08,480 anymore. They were now the largest money 1803 01:31:05,520 --> 01:31:11,120 manager on the planet. They had gone 1804 01:31:08,480 --> 01:31:13,280 into the crisis as a respected firm. 1805 01:31:11,120 --> 01:31:17,080 They came out of it as the shadow 1806 01:31:13,280 --> 01:31:17,080 government of finance. 1807 01:31:21,760 --> 01:31:25,600 By 2012, [music] 1808 01:31:22,960 --> 01:31:27,520 Larry Frink had built the machine. He 1809 01:31:25,600 --> 01:31:30,000 had the assets, the data, and the 1810 01:31:27,520 --> 01:31:33,280 influence. But he realized that being 1811 01:31:30,000 --> 01:31:34,639 king of Wall Street wasn't enough. He 1812 01:31:33,280 --> 01:31:37,760 wanted to [music] change the way the 1813 01:31:34,639 --> 01:31:39,679 world did business. Every January, a 1814 01:31:37,760 --> 01:31:41,600 ritual began that would send tremors 1815 01:31:39,679 --> 01:31:44,239 through boardrooms from Detroit to 1816 01:31:41,600 --> 01:31:46,400 Frankfurt. Larry started writing 1817 01:31:44,239 --> 01:31:48,800 letters. They weren't just annual 1818 01:31:46,400 --> 01:31:51,800 reports. They were the Black Rockck 1819 01:31:48,800 --> 01:31:51,800 Manifestos. 1820 01:31:52,400 --> 01:31:58,080 In 2018, he dropped a bomb. He told the 1821 01:31:56,159 --> 01:32:00,239 world's CEOs that if they [music] wanted 1822 01:31:58,080 --> 01:32:03,440 Black Rockck's money, they had to prove 1823 01:32:00,239 --> 01:32:05,840 they served a social purpose. He wasn't 1824 01:32:03,440 --> 01:32:10,400 just asking for profits. He was asking 1825 01:32:05,840 --> 01:32:11,440 for a soul. He was mainstreaming ESG, 1826 01:32:10,400 --> 01:32:14,159 environmental, [music] 1827 01:32:11,440 --> 01:32:17,840 social, and governance. And he was doing 1828 01:32:14,159 --> 01:32:19,840 it with a $10 trillion hammer. But 1829 01:32:17,840 --> 01:32:23,360 Larry's new gospel [music] didn't sit 1830 01:32:19,840 --> 01:32:25,360 well with everyone. By 2021, the Golden 1831 01:32:23,360 --> 01:32:28,560 Boy was finding himself in the middle of 1832 01:32:25,360 --> 01:32:31,840 a two-front war. 1833 01:32:28,560 --> 01:32:35,600 The ESG debate was never cultural. It 1834 01:32:31,840 --> 01:32:37,600 was economic. At its core, ESG was about 1835 01:32:35,600 --> 01:32:40,159 risk management, anticipating 1836 01:32:37,600 --> 01:32:42,400 regulation, climate disruption, and 1837 01:32:40,159 --> 01:32:44,560 social instability. 1838 01:32:42,400 --> 01:32:46,159 For Black Rockck, ignoring those factors 1839 01:32:44,560 --> 01:32:48,719 wasn't [music] neutral. It was 1840 01:32:46,159 --> 01:32:51,040 dangerous. But when capital begins to 1841 01:32:48,719 --> 01:32:53,840 price the future, it also begins to 1842 01:32:51,040 --> 01:32:55,520 shape it. That's why the backlash was so 1843 01:32:53,840 --> 01:32:58,400 intense. 1844 01:32:55,520 --> 01:33:00,000 To the left, Larry was a hypocrite. They 1845 01:32:58,400 --> 01:33:02,239 called him [music] a greenwasher because 1846 01:33:00,000 --> 01:33:05,040 Black Rockck still held billions in oil 1847 01:33:02,239 --> 01:33:07,120 and gas stocks. To the right, he was a 1848 01:33:05,040 --> 01:33:09,040 globalist villain who was using other 1849 01:33:07,120 --> 01:33:11,920 people's money to push a radical 1850 01:33:09,040 --> 01:33:13,920 environmental agenda. The backlash 1851 01:33:11,920 --> 01:33:16,920 turned into a full-scale political 1852 01:33:13,920 --> 01:33:16,920 assault. 1853 01:33:17,040 --> 01:33:21,760 State treasurers in Florida, Texas, and 1854 01:33:19,520 --> 01:33:24,400 Mississippi began pulling billions out 1855 01:33:21,760 --> 01:33:27,120 of Black Rockck. They accused Larry of 1856 01:33:24,400 --> 01:33:29,280 boycotting energy and violating his duty 1857 01:33:27,120 --> 01:33:31,120 to investors. 1858 01:33:29,280 --> 01:33:33,840 For the first time, the man who had 1859 01:33:31,120 --> 01:33:39,159 mastered risk found himself in a risk he 1860 01:33:33,840 --> 01:33:39,159 couldn't calculate, the culture war. 1861 01:33:40,639 --> 01:33:45,600 He told a crowd in Aspen that he was 1862 01:33:42,880 --> 01:33:47,760 ashamed to be a part of the debate. He 1863 01:33:45,600 --> 01:33:50,639 even stopped using the term ESG 1864 01:33:47,760 --> 01:33:52,560 altogether, calling it weaponized. 1865 01:33:50,639 --> 01:33:55,360 He had tried to become the conscience of 1866 01:33:52,560 --> 01:33:57,760 capitalism. Instead, it became its most 1867 01:33:55,360 --> 01:33:59,600 controversial target. But even [music] 1868 01:33:57,760 --> 01:34:02,239 as the politicians shouted and the 1869 01:33:59,600 --> 01:34:05,120 protesters marched, the assets kept 1870 01:34:02,239 --> 01:34:06,880 growing. [music] 1871 01:34:05,120 --> 01:34:08,880 Because in the end, whether you loved 1872 01:34:06,880 --> 01:34:12,114 him or hated him, you couldn't escape 1873 01:34:08,880 --> 01:34:12,114 the machine he built. [music] 1874 01:34:20,800 --> 01:34:25,440 January 2026, [music] 1875 01:34:23,120 --> 01:34:27,120 the number flashes on a terminal in 1876 01:34:25,440 --> 01:34:31,120 Black Rockck's Hudson Yards 1877 01:34:27,120 --> 01:34:34,239 headquarters. $14 [music] trillion. 1878 01:34:31,120 --> 01:34:35,840 It is a number so vast it defies human 1879 01:34:34,239 --> 01:34:37,600 comprehension. 1880 01:34:35,840 --> 01:34:40,320 If Larry Frink's assets [music] under 1881 01:34:37,600 --> 01:34:42,320 management were a country's GDP, it 1882 01:34:40,320 --> 01:34:44,239 would be the third largest economy on 1883 01:34:42,320 --> 01:34:46,880 Earth, surpassed only [music] by the 1884 01:34:44,239 --> 01:34:49,120 United States and China. 1885 01:34:46,880 --> 01:34:52,000 But as Larry looks out from his office, 1886 01:34:49,120 --> 01:34:53,840 he isn't looking at stock tickers. He is 1887 01:34:52,000 --> 01:34:56,840 looking at the very bones of 1888 01:34:53,840 --> 01:34:56,840 civilization. 1889 01:34:58,400 --> 01:35:04,800 In 2024, Larry made his final most 1890 01:35:01,840 --> 01:35:06,560 aggressive pivot. He realized that the 1891 01:35:04,800 --> 01:35:09,120 next decade won't be one with [music] 1892 01:35:06,560 --> 01:35:12,159 bits on a screen, but with atoms in the 1893 01:35:09,120 --> 01:35:12,960 ground. With the 12.5 billion 1894 01:35:12,159 --> 01:35:15,760 acquisition [music] 1895 01:35:12,960 --> 01:35:18,000 of global infrastructure partners, Larry 1896 01:35:15,760 --> 01:35:20,880 signaled the end of the old Wall Street 1897 01:35:18,000 --> 01:35:22,880 era. Larry saw the AI revolution [music] 1898 01:35:20,880 --> 01:35:25,600 coming. But he didn't buy the chip 1899 01:35:22,880 --> 01:35:29,080 makers. He bought the power plants that 1900 01:35:25,600 --> 01:35:29,080 feed the chips. 1901 01:35:32,000 --> 01:35:39,000 But every empire [music] faces the same 1902 01:35:34,080 --> 01:35:39,000 inevitable question. Succession. 1903 01:35:40,400 --> 01:35:44,416 For years, Wall Street has whispered 1904 01:35:42,480 --> 01:35:47,360 about who could possibly replace the 1905 01:35:44,416 --> 01:35:49,920 [music] man who is Black Rockck. Names 1906 01:35:47,360 --> 01:35:52,480 like Rob Capito, Mark Weirman, and 1907 01:35:49,920 --> 01:35:55,551 Jennifer Johnson swirl in the press. But 1908 01:35:52,480 --> 01:35:57,199 the truth is more complex. Larry hasn't 1909 01:35:55,551 --> 01:36:00,239 [music] just built a company. He's built 1910 01:35:57,199 --> 01:36:03,360 an organism. A system where Aladdin, now 1911 01:36:00,239 --> 01:36:05,199 a very sophisticated AI entity, handles 1912 01:36:03,360 --> 01:36:08,560 the risk while a legion [music] of 1913 01:36:05,199 --> 01:36:11,440 20,000 employees, executes the vision. 1914 01:36:08,560 --> 01:36:13,280 Aladdin is no longer just a calculator. 1915 01:36:11,440 --> 01:36:15,040 It is a predictive engine that runs 1916 01:36:13,280 --> 01:36:17,440 millions of [music] simulations every 1917 01:36:15,040 --> 01:36:19,679 second, anticipating everything from a 1918 01:36:17,440 --> 01:36:22,320 war in the Middle East to a crop failure 1919 01:36:19,679 --> 01:36:24,719 in Brazil. 1920 01:36:22,320 --> 01:36:27,920 Some call him the king of the world, 1921 01:36:24,719 --> 01:36:29,760 others call him the shadow architect. 1922 01:36:27,920 --> 01:36:31,920 But if [music] you ask Larry, he'll tell 1923 01:36:29,760 --> 01:36:34,320 you he's still that kid from the Van 1924 01:36:31,920 --> 01:36:38,600 Noise shoe store, just trying to make 1925 01:36:34,320 --> 01:36:38,600 sure that the maths add up. 1926 01:36:38,880 --> 01:36:43,199 He took the greatest humiliation of his 1927 01:36:40,960 --> 01:36:45,280 life and turned it into a shield for the 1928 01:36:43,199 --> 01:36:47,280 global economy. 1929 01:36:45,280 --> 01:36:50,000 He taught the world that profit without 1930 01:36:47,280 --> 01:36:52,239 a plan is just a gamble and that in the 1931 01:36:50,000 --> 01:36:55,040 dark, the man with the flashlight is 1932 01:36:52,239 --> 01:36:57,119 king. 1933 01:36:55,040 --> 01:36:59,360 There is one financial question the 1934 01:36:57,119 --> 01:37:01,679 system [music] cannot answer. What 1935 01:36:59,360 --> 01:37:04,480 happens when everyone measures risk the 1936 01:37:01,679 --> 01:37:06,159 same way? When models converge. When 1937 01:37:04,480 --> 01:37:09,199 assumptions [music] align. When 1938 01:37:06,159 --> 01:37:11,520 diversity of judgment disappears. 1939 01:37:09,199 --> 01:37:13,760 A system optimized for stability can 1940 01:37:11,520 --> 01:37:16,000 become fragile. Not because [music] it 1941 01:37:13,760 --> 01:37:18,000 is wrong but because it leaves no room 1942 01:37:16,000 --> 01:37:20,239 for the unexpected. 1943 01:37:18,000 --> 01:37:21,840 When the supervisor becomes invisible 1944 01:37:20,239 --> 01:37:24,480 and the rules are embedded [music] in 1945 01:37:21,840 --> 01:37:27,920 code, accountability becomes harder to 1946 01:37:24,480 --> 01:37:29,872 locate, the system works until it 1947 01:37:27,920 --> 01:37:32,080 doesn't. And that's why Blackprop 1948 01:37:29,872 --> 01:37:34,800 [music] isn't just a shareholder in your 1949 01:37:32,080 --> 01:37:37,840 company. They are the landlord of your 1950 01:37:34,800 --> 01:37:40,639 power plant, the owner of your airport, 1951 01:37:37,840 --> 01:37:42,800 the architect of your retirement. It is 1952 01:37:40,639 --> 01:37:44,320 a level of centralized influence the 1953 01:37:42,800 --> 01:37:47,600 world [music] has never seen in a 1954 01:37:44,320 --> 01:37:49,520 private individual. Lawrence D.Fin 1955 01:37:47,600 --> 01:37:53,119 didn't just build [music] a bank. He 1956 01:37:49,520 --> 01:37:55,360 built the unblinking eye of capitalism. 1957 01:37:53,119 --> 01:37:57,600 And as the world moves into the era of 1958 01:37:55,360 --> 01:38:00,400 AI, climate shift, and global 1959 01:37:57,600 --> 01:38:03,760 restructuring, one thing is certain. 1960 01:38:00,400 --> 01:38:08,360 Black Rockck will be there, watching, 1961 01:38:03,760 --> 01:38:08,360 calculating, and growing. 1962 01:39:28,320 --> 01:39:33,280 It's just a small plastic brick. 1963 01:39:31,760 --> 01:39:38,400 Lightweight, 1964 01:39:33,280 --> 01:39:42,719 simple, unchanged since 1958. 1965 01:39:38,400 --> 01:39:44,480 And yet, it has built entire universes. 1966 01:39:42,719 --> 01:39:47,280 Lego constructions [music] truly take us 1967 01:39:44,480 --> 01:39:48,800 back to childhood. 1968 01:39:47,280 --> 01:39:51,600 But they stay with us throughout [music] 1969 01:39:48,800 --> 01:39:54,000 our entire lives. From bedrooms to 1970 01:39:51,600 --> 01:39:58,239 boardrooms, from playgrounds to [music] 1971 01:39:54,000 --> 01:40:00,719 Hollywood, Lego has shaped generations. 1972 01:39:58,239 --> 01:40:02,560 >> When I design something from scratch, I 1973 01:40:00,719 --> 01:40:04,880 start with an idea that occurs to me at 1974 01:40:02,560 --> 01:40:06,719 any time of day. 1975 01:40:04,880 --> 01:40:09,679 I try to build it with Lego and see what 1976 01:40:06,719 --> 01:40:13,760 I come up with. In a global toy market 1977 01:40:09,679 --> 01:40:16,480 worth more than $120 billion, LEGO 1978 01:40:13,760 --> 01:40:19,520 stands alone. A single company 1979 01:40:16,480 --> 01:40:21,840 controlling nearly one in every $10 1980 01:40:19,520 --> 01:40:24,000 spent on toys worldwide. 1981 01:40:21,840 --> 01:40:25,600 >> Lego holds a leading position worldwide, 1982 01:40:24,000 --> 01:40:27,280 recognized above all for its 1983 01:40:25,600 --> 01:40:29,440 playability. 1984 01:40:27,280 --> 01:40:33,274 >> What if the most beloved toy in the 1985 01:40:29,440 --> 01:40:33,520 world almost didn't exist? 1986 01:40:33,274 --> 01:40:35,920 >> [music] 1987 01:40:33,520 --> 01:40:38,639 >> Discover the incredible journey of a 1988 01:40:35,920 --> 01:40:40,479 small, struggling carpentry shop. The 1989 01:40:38,639 --> 01:40:42,480 dared to dream bigger than anyone 1990 01:40:40,479 --> 01:40:45,040 [music] thought possible. 1991 01:40:42,480 --> 01:40:48,080 >> This is the untold story of the 1992 01:40:45,040 --> 01:40:50,304 visionary who built Lego. 1993 01:40:48,080 --> 01:40:52,560 Transforming simple wooden bricks 1994 01:40:50,304 --> 01:40:57,280 [music] into a multibillion dollar 1995 01:40:52,560 --> 01:40:59,520 empire and forever changing how we play. 1996 01:40:57,280 --> 01:41:02,719 But none of this began with billiondoll 1997 01:40:59,520 --> 01:41:06,639 charts or cinematic universes. 1998 01:41:02,719 --> 01:41:09,920 It began with a carpenter with a vision. 1999 01:41:06,639 --> 01:41:13,040 In a tiny Danish village, one man had a 2000 01:41:09,920 --> 01:41:16,040 dream. Building toys out of scraps of 2001 01:41:13,040 --> 01:41:16,040 wood. 2002 01:41:22,239 --> 01:41:28,719 Ole Kirk Christensen was born in 1891 in 2003 01:41:26,080 --> 01:41:33,040 western [music] Denmark, a place defined 2004 01:41:28,719 --> 01:41:35,760 by silence, soil, and hard work. 2005 01:41:33,040 --> 01:41:37,920 He grew up poor, like most children in 2006 01:41:35,760 --> 01:41:39,280 the Jutland countryside. 2007 01:41:37,920 --> 01:41:42,000 But he learned the value of 2008 01:41:39,280 --> 01:41:45,520 craftsmanship early. When you made 2009 01:41:42,000 --> 01:41:48,159 something, it had to last. 2010 01:41:45,520 --> 01:41:50,400 He apprenticed as a carpenter. It was 2011 01:41:48,159 --> 01:41:54,000 not a really glamorous work, but 2012 01:41:50,400 --> 01:41:57,360 meticulous, honest, a craft that matched 2013 01:41:54,000 --> 01:41:59,760 Ola's character and manners. 2014 01:41:57,360 --> 01:42:03,199 Ola traveled through Denmark, Germany, 2015 01:41:59,760 --> 01:42:06,719 and Norway. Everywhere he went, he left 2016 01:42:03,199 --> 01:42:08,719 a reputation. Precise, patient, 2017 01:42:06,719 --> 01:42:10,400 relentless. 2018 01:42:08,719 --> 01:42:12,719 In 1916, [music] 2019 01:42:10,400 --> 01:42:14,719 Ole returned home and bought a workshop 2020 01:42:12,719 --> 01:42:18,739 in a place that barely existed on the 2021 01:42:14,719 --> 01:42:19,760 map. Bund. No shops, no train station, 2022 01:42:18,739 --> 01:42:21,679 [music] 2023 01:42:19,760 --> 01:42:23,280 just a handful of families trying to 2024 01:42:21,679 --> 01:42:25,040 survive the Danish winds. 2025 01:42:23,280 --> 01:42:28,159 >> Don't worry, I'm fine. I'm fine. 2026 01:42:25,040 --> 01:42:30,320 >> But 8 years later, disaster struck. 2027 01:42:28,159 --> 01:42:33,360 >> Oh. Oh. Oh no. 2028 01:42:30,320 --> 01:42:34,080 >> In 1924, a fire tore through his 2029 01:42:33,360 --> 01:42:36,880 workshop. 2030 01:42:34,080 --> 01:42:38,560 >> Oh god, no. Please, no. Oh my god. 2031 01:42:36,880 --> 01:42:42,800 >> Everything burned. 2032 01:42:38,560 --> 01:42:44,159 tools, wood, orders, and a lifetime of 2033 01:42:42,800 --> 01:42:46,159 savings, [music] 2034 01:42:44,159 --> 01:42:50,239 all gone. 2035 01:42:46,159 --> 01:42:52,960 But Olair didn't quit. He rebuilt and 2036 01:42:50,239 --> 01:42:55,440 rebuilt bigger than before. Not because 2037 01:42:52,960 --> 01:42:59,360 it was safe, but because he refused to 2038 01:42:55,440 --> 01:43:01,840 let Billand disappear into the wind. 2039 01:42:59,360 --> 01:43:04,320 Then came the [music] Great Depression. 2040 01:43:01,840 --> 01:43:06,960 Houses weren't being built. Doors 2041 01:43:04,320 --> 01:43:08,800 weren't being ordered. Bills weren't 2042 01:43:06,960 --> 01:43:11,520 being paid. 2043 01:43:08,800 --> 01:43:14,480 Olair had workers depending on him, 2044 01:43:11,520 --> 01:43:17,440 families depending on him. So, he did 2045 01:43:14,480 --> 01:43:21,199 something unexpected. He began crafting 2046 01:43:17,440 --> 01:43:24,880 small wooden toys. They were simple, 2047 01:43:21,199 --> 01:43:27,440 durable, and beautiful. 2048 01:43:24,880 --> 01:43:30,000 Locals mocked [music] him. A grown man 2049 01:43:27,440 --> 01:43:31,600 making toys for children. You'll never 2050 01:43:30,000 --> 01:43:34,880 survive. 2051 01:43:31,600 --> 01:43:36,880 But Ola believed that play and fun was a 2052 01:43:34,880 --> 01:43:40,080 serious business. 2053 01:43:36,880 --> 01:43:43,679 In 1934, he held a contest to name the 2054 01:43:40,080 --> 01:43:47,360 new toy company. He chose a short word, 2055 01:43:43,679 --> 01:43:51,119 Lego. It was not only a simple idea, but 2056 01:43:47,360 --> 01:43:53,840 a philosophy and a promise. 2057 01:43:51,119 --> 01:43:56,480 He hung a sign in the workshop. Only the 2058 01:43:53,840 --> 01:44:01,639 best is [music] good enough. It wasn't 2059 01:43:56,480 --> 01:44:01,639 marketing. It was his identity. 2060 01:44:02,221 --> 01:44:04,960 >> [panting] 2061 01:44:03,440 --> 01:44:09,600 >> Oh god, not again. 2062 01:44:04,960 --> 01:44:11,119 >> In 1942, Ola faced another fire. This 2063 01:44:09,600 --> 01:44:14,800 time it was bigger, [music] more 2064 01:44:11,119 --> 01:44:18,880 devastating. Every blueprint, every toy, 2065 01:44:14,800 --> 01:44:21,760 every dream he had turned into smoke. 2066 01:44:18,880 --> 01:44:25,280 But he had built himself the hardship. 2067 01:44:21,760 --> 01:44:27,112 And once more, he rebuilt the factory 2068 01:44:25,280 --> 01:44:28,400 stronger than the two previous ones. 2069 01:44:27,112 --> 01:44:32,400 [music] 2070 01:44:28,400 --> 01:44:34,480 In 1947, at the worst economic moment, 2071 01:44:32,400 --> 01:44:37,440 Ola made the riskiest choice of his 2072 01:44:34,480 --> 01:44:39,600 life. He spent more than twice the 2073 01:44:37,440 --> 01:44:42,480 company's annual profits on a strange 2074 01:44:39,600 --> 01:44:45,440 new machine, one that worked not with 2075 01:44:42,480 --> 01:44:48,159 wood, but with plastic. 2076 01:44:45,440 --> 01:44:50,480 Retailers hated plastic. Parents 2077 01:44:48,159 --> 01:44:54,320 distrusted it. But Ola saw something 2078 01:44:50,480 --> 01:44:56,719 they didn't. Precision, repeatability, 2079 01:44:54,320 --> 01:44:58,960 and possibilities. Endless 2080 01:44:56,719 --> 01:45:02,320 possibilities. 2081 01:44:58,960 --> 01:45:04,480 Only two years later, in 1949, 2082 01:45:02,320 --> 01:45:07,760 LEGO released the first plastic bricks 2083 01:45:04,480 --> 01:45:10,560 of its history. They didn't click. They 2084 01:45:07,760 --> 01:45:13,560 weren't perfect, but they were the 2085 01:45:10,560 --> 01:45:13,560 beginning. 2086 01:45:17,840 --> 01:45:22,560 >> The idea was good, but Ola and his team 2087 01:45:20,480 --> 01:45:24,560 face setbacks while designing the bricks 2088 01:45:22,560 --> 01:45:27,760 that had cemented Lego's identity 2089 01:45:24,560 --> 01:45:30,880 through the years. The plastic bricks 2090 01:45:27,760 --> 01:45:32,960 didn't grip. This was a major problem 2091 01:45:30,880 --> 01:45:35,679 for a building set because buildings 2092 01:45:32,960 --> 01:45:39,119 collapsed. Towers fell in front of their 2093 01:45:35,679 --> 01:45:43,600 eyes. Apparently, Lego wasn't created to 2094 01:45:39,119 --> 01:45:45,840 build. And then in 1958, 2095 01:45:43,600 --> 01:45:48,159 everything changed. 2096 01:45:45,840 --> 01:45:50,159 >> Unlike 20 years ago, LEGO today allows 2097 01:45:48,159 --> 01:45:52,480 us to build many more things because 2098 01:45:50,159 --> 01:45:55,800 they have released more realistic colors 2099 01:45:52,480 --> 01:45:55,800 and shapes. 2100 01:45:56,239 --> 01:46:00,960 In the past, the pieces were mostly 2101 01:45:58,239 --> 01:46:02,960 square. Today, there is a much wider 2102 01:46:00,960 --> 01:46:05,199 variety of shapes, including more 2103 01:46:02,960 --> 01:46:08,000 rounded elements, which allow us to 2104 01:46:05,199 --> 01:46:09,679 create more ergonomic forms, ones that 2105 01:46:08,000 --> 01:46:12,000 more closely resemble the kinds of 2106 01:46:09,679 --> 01:46:14,159 buildings and structures we see in 2107 01:46:12,000 --> 01:46:17,199 everyday life. 2108 01:46:14,159 --> 01:46:20,400 >> Engineers at LEGO perfected a simple but 2109 01:46:17,199 --> 01:46:22,480 ingenious solution. hollow tubes inside 2110 01:46:20,400 --> 01:46:24,719 the brick. 2111 01:46:22,480 --> 01:46:27,280 Paired with the studs on top, the 2112 01:46:24,719 --> 01:46:31,119 geometry created what LEGO calls clutch 2113 01:46:27,280 --> 01:46:33,360 power. Not too tight, not too loose, 2114 01:46:31,119 --> 01:46:35,280 just [music] perfect. 2115 01:46:33,360 --> 01:46:37,920 This was not just an adjustment or 2116 01:46:35,280 --> 01:46:40,719 improvement. It was the birth of what we 2117 01:46:37,920 --> 01:46:43,520 know [music] today as a Lego brick. The 2118 01:46:40,719 --> 01:46:45,679 brick that today can still be used with 2119 01:46:43,520 --> 01:46:47,760 the modern ones. 2120 01:46:45,679 --> 01:46:49,520 the brick that was the foundation of a 2121 01:46:47,760 --> 01:46:51,280 company [music] that still makes history 2122 01:46:49,520 --> 01:46:54,719 today. 2123 01:46:51,280 --> 01:46:56,453 That same year, Lego filed the patent. 2124 01:46:54,719 --> 01:46:58,239 They had something worth protecting, 2125 01:46:56,453 --> 01:47:02,159 [music] and OA knew that sooner or 2126 01:46:58,239 --> 01:47:05,840 later, it would be replicated. 2127 01:47:02,159 --> 01:47:09,600 It was January the 28th, 1958 when the 2128 01:47:05,840 --> 01:47:12,239 patent was filed. Later that year, Ole 2129 01:47:09,600 --> 01:47:15,440 Christensen [music] passed away. 2130 01:47:12,239 --> 01:47:19,239 and savvy. He never lived to see how far 2131 01:47:15,440 --> 01:47:19,239 his brick would travel. 2132 01:47:26,800 --> 01:47:32,320 After his father died, Godfred Kerr 2133 01:47:29,360 --> 01:47:34,560 Christensen stepped in. He wasn't 2134 01:47:32,320 --> 01:47:37,520 inheriting the company. He was 2135 01:47:34,560 --> 01:47:39,760 inheriting a philosophy, one he had been 2136 01:47:37,520 --> 01:47:41,840 raised with. [music] His father wasn't 2137 01:47:39,760 --> 01:47:44,080 around anymore, but the original spirit 2138 01:47:41,840 --> 01:47:46,719 of Lego lived on in the second 2139 01:47:44,080 --> 01:47:49,119 Christensen [music] generation. 2140 01:47:46,719 --> 01:47:51,280 But he also had something to add. 2141 01:47:49,119 --> 01:47:54,639 Godfred believed Lego should be more 2142 01:47:51,280 --> 01:47:56,159 than toys. It should be a system. A 2143 01:47:54,639 --> 01:47:58,880 system [music] where every piece 2144 01:47:56,159 --> 01:48:00,800 connected with every other piece across 2145 01:47:58,880 --> 01:48:02,880 every set. 2146 01:48:00,800 --> 01:48:06,000 This created a language of creativity 2147 01:48:02,880 --> 01:48:09,199 and possibilities. And a single idea 2148 01:48:06,000 --> 01:48:11,840 changed everything. Suddenly, LEGO 2149 01:48:09,199 --> 01:48:14,320 wasn't a collection of toys, but an 2150 01:48:11,840 --> 01:48:16,800 entire universe. 2151 01:48:14,320 --> 01:48:18,800 The company began to grow far beyond its 2152 01:48:16,800 --> 01:48:22,000 original frontiers. 2153 01:48:18,800 --> 01:48:25,600 During the 1960s and [music] '7s, Lego 2154 01:48:22,000 --> 01:48:29,520 expanded across Europe, Germany, Sweden, 2155 01:48:25,600 --> 01:48:32,960 the UK. Band, once a small village, 2156 01:48:29,520 --> 01:48:35,600 became a global hub of play. Lego then 2157 01:48:32,960 --> 01:48:37,920 built its own airport, factories, and 2158 01:48:35,600 --> 01:48:40,400 distribution centers. In the world of 2159 01:48:37,920 --> 01:48:43,840 construction toys, we know that Lego 2160 01:48:40,400 --> 01:48:48,400 isn't the only brand around. 2161 01:48:43,840 --> 01:48:51,040 What Lego provides is a quality product. 2162 01:48:48,400 --> 01:48:53,840 Maybe one part is wrong for every 10,000 2163 01:48:51,040 --> 01:48:56,639 or 100,000 items. And if you are missing 2164 01:48:53,840 --> 01:48:58,800 an item from a box, or if it is faulty, 2165 01:48:56,639 --> 01:49:00,239 the company's after sales service will 2166 01:48:58,800 --> 01:49:03,639 not question the fact that you are 2167 01:49:00,239 --> 01:49:03,639 missing a part. 2168 01:49:04,400 --> 01:49:10,719 And then the magic happened. 2169 01:49:08,080 --> 01:49:14,960 Lego introduced something no toy company 2170 01:49:10,719 --> 01:49:18,800 had done at scale. Fully themed worlds. 2171 01:49:14,960 --> 01:49:20,080 Space town castles. 2172 01:49:18,800 --> 01:49:22,560 Children weren't just building 2173 01:49:20,080 --> 01:49:24,400 structures anymore. They were building 2174 01:49:22,560 --> 01:49:28,000 stories. 2175 01:49:24,400 --> 01:49:29,920 In 1978, LEGO released its most iconic 2176 01:49:28,000 --> 01:49:31,440 invention [music] since the brick, the 2177 01:49:29,920 --> 01:49:34,480 minifigure. 2178 01:49:31,440 --> 01:49:38,320 It had a simple face, hands shaped like 2179 01:49:34,480 --> 01:49:40,861 a sea, and feet made to stand on studs. 2180 01:49:38,320 --> 01:49:42,560 A tiny character that let kids project 2181 01:49:40,861 --> 01:49:46,080 [music] themselves into entire 2182 01:49:42,560 --> 01:49:48,560 universes. Stories now had heroes and 2183 01:49:46,080 --> 01:49:50,560 Lego had a heartbeat. 2184 01:49:48,560 --> 01:49:52,480 In the late 1970s, [music] 2185 01:49:50,560 --> 01:49:55,271 Lego was already run by the third 2186 01:49:52,480 --> 01:49:58,320 Christensen generation. Ole's grandson 2187 01:49:55,271 --> 01:50:00,400 [music] killed began shaping the company 2188 01:49:58,320 --> 01:50:01,920 into the global powerhouse we know 2189 01:50:00,400 --> 01:50:04,320 today. 2190 01:50:01,920 --> 01:50:07,600 He did so by creating more sophisticated 2191 01:50:04,320 --> 01:50:10,000 lines, bringing in new universes, 2192 01:50:07,600 --> 01:50:12,239 technic brought mechanics, pirates 2193 01:50:10,000 --> 01:50:15,840 brought adventure, and trains brought 2194 01:50:12,239 --> 01:50:17,679 motion. By the late 20th century, the 2195 01:50:15,840 --> 01:50:20,800 global toy market was becoming [music] 2196 01:50:17,679 --> 01:50:22,320 massive. Tens of billions of dollars a 2197 01:50:20,800 --> 01:50:24,320 year worth. 2198 01:50:22,320 --> 01:50:27,119 The United States [music] spent more on 2199 01:50:24,320 --> 01:50:30,080 toys than any country on Earth. And 2200 01:50:27,119 --> 01:50:32,480 China produced most of them, nearly 3/4 2201 01:50:30,080 --> 01:50:35,440 of the world's total. 2202 01:50:32,480 --> 01:50:38,320 In this booming landscape, Lego wasn't 2203 01:50:35,440 --> 01:50:41,320 just another toy. It was [music] the 2204 01:50:38,320 --> 01:50:41,320 toy. 2205 01:50:45,920 --> 01:50:51,760 By the late 1990s, Lego was flying high. 2206 01:50:49,760 --> 01:50:54,000 It had become one of the most admired 2207 01:50:51,760 --> 01:50:56,080 companies in Europe. A creative 2208 01:50:54,000 --> 01:50:58,560 powerhouse built on the philosophy of 2209 01:50:56,080 --> 01:51:00,639 imagination and creation. We're not 2210 01:50:58,560 --> 01:51:02,320 focused only on childhood, but on 2211 01:51:00,639 --> 01:51:04,639 something that has quite literally built 2212 01:51:02,320 --> 01:51:06,800 us, pun intended, shaping our 2213 01:51:04,639 --> 01:51:09,040 personalities through Lego from an early 2214 01:51:06,800 --> 01:51:11,040 age. [music] Those memories became a 2215 01:51:09,040 --> 01:51:13,217 foundation we've kept building on over 2216 01:51:11,040 --> 01:51:13,840 time. 2217 01:51:13,217 --> 01:51:15,760 [music] 2218 01:51:13,840 --> 01:51:17,679 That's why exhibitions like this bring 2219 01:51:15,760 --> 01:51:20,560 us straight back to childhood. The 2220 01:51:17,679 --> 01:51:22,719 audience here is very diverse, but once 2221 01:51:20,560 --> 01:51:24,960 people walk in, they all become the boy 2222 01:51:22,719 --> 01:51:27,920 or girl they once were. 2223 01:51:24,960 --> 01:51:30,159 >> But it's not all gold that glitters. 2224 01:51:27,920 --> 01:51:33,119 Under the surface, something dangerous 2225 01:51:30,159 --> 01:51:35,440 was creeping in. The toy market was 2226 01:51:33,119 --> 01:51:36,800 changing fast. Children were spending 2227 01:51:35,440 --> 01:51:39,760 more [music] and more time with video 2228 01:51:36,800 --> 01:51:42,000 games and early computer entertainment. 2229 01:51:39,760 --> 01:51:43,760 Sony's PlayStation, Nintendo, and 2230 01:51:42,000 --> 01:51:46,560 Hasbro's electronic toys [music] were 2231 01:51:43,760 --> 01:51:49,199 capturing attention. And LEGO, 2232 01:51:46,560 --> 01:51:51,920 determined not to fall behind, expanded 2233 01:51:49,199 --> 01:51:54,400 too far, too fast. 2234 01:51:51,920 --> 01:51:56,639 Throughout the 1990s, LEGO began 2235 01:51:54,400 --> 01:51:58,960 introducing thousands of completely new 2236 01:51:56,639 --> 01:52:01,920 pieces. Specialized parts [music] that 2237 01:51:58,960 --> 01:52:04,560 not only worked in one set, a single 2238 01:52:01,920 --> 01:52:07,760 year could bring more than 350 new 2239 01:52:04,560 --> 01:52:10,000 designs. Each of them costing tens of 2240 01:52:07,760 --> 01:52:13,040 thousands of dollars in steel machining 2241 01:52:10,000 --> 01:52:14,880 and precision engineering. 2242 01:52:13,040 --> 01:52:17,199 In 2002, 2243 01:52:14,880 --> 01:52:20,159 Lego had more than 12,000 active 2244 01:52:17,199 --> 01:52:22,560 elements. The system of play, once 2245 01:52:20,159 --> 01:52:25,920 simple and universal, was becoming 2246 01:52:22,560 --> 01:52:27,760 chaotic and difficult to follow. LEGO 2247 01:52:25,920 --> 01:52:31,040 also tried [music] becoming a lifestyle 2248 01:52:27,760 --> 01:52:34,239 brand. New ventures appeared everywhere. 2249 01:52:31,040 --> 01:52:36,400 Clothing lines, theme parks, homegoods, 2250 01:52:34,239 --> 01:52:38,080 cartoon series, even watches and 2251 01:52:36,400 --> 01:52:40,080 sneakers. 2252 01:52:38,080 --> 01:52:42,639 But these projects drained resources 2253 01:52:40,080 --> 01:52:46,239 without reinforcing the core product. 2254 01:52:42,639 --> 01:52:48,159 the brick. And between 1999 [music] 2255 01:52:46,239 --> 01:52:50,560 and 2003, 2256 01:52:48,159 --> 01:52:52,719 LEGO sales collapsed. 2257 01:52:50,560 --> 01:52:54,320 During these years, the company went 2258 01:52:52,719 --> 01:52:58,080 from doubledigit growth to [music] 2259 01:52:54,320 --> 01:52:59,983 struggling. And by 2003, the company was 2260 01:52:58,080 --> 01:53:03,520 losing the equivalent of $1 million 2261 01:52:59,983 --> 01:53:05,878 [music] a day. In a global toy market 2262 01:53:03,520 --> 01:53:06,400 still worth more than $70 billion US 2263 01:53:05,878 --> 01:53:09,280 [music] 2264 01:53:06,400 --> 01:53:11,360 at the time, Lego, once the king of the 2265 01:53:09,280 --> 01:53:13,520 toy box, was only a few steps [music] 2266 01:53:11,360 --> 01:53:16,639 away from bankruptcy. 2267 01:53:13,520 --> 01:53:20,880 Times were dark, but a spark of genius 2268 01:53:16,639 --> 01:53:23,199 appeared. In 1999, LEGO signed its first 2269 01:53:20,880 --> 01:53:25,040 ever licensing deal with no other than 2270 01:53:23,199 --> 01:53:28,159 Lucasfilm. 2271 01:53:25,040 --> 01:53:31,360 The timing was perfect. Star Wars 2272 01:53:28,159 --> 01:53:34,159 Episode 1 was about to hit theaters. 2273 01:53:31,360 --> 01:53:37,199 Hype was global and the first Lego Star 2274 01:53:34,159 --> 01:53:40,400 Wars sets were instant hits. Not just 2275 01:53:37,199 --> 01:53:42,480 with children, with adults. Collectors 2276 01:53:40,400 --> 01:53:44,560 lined up to buy the X-wing, the 2277 01:53:42,480 --> 01:53:47,920 Snowspeeder, or the first Millennium 2278 01:53:44,560 --> 01:53:50,719 Falcon. For the first time in LEGO's 2279 01:53:47,920 --> 01:53:53,520 history, adults, including those in 2280 01:53:50,719 --> 01:53:54,400 their 30s and 40s, were buying sets for 2281 01:53:53,520 --> 01:53:56,320 themselves. 2282 01:53:54,400 --> 01:53:59,119 >> The adult fan of Lego community is 2283 01:53:56,320 --> 01:54:01,199 getting bigger. This is because Lego is 2284 01:53:59,119 --> 01:54:03,679 not the same as it was 20 or 30 years 2285 01:54:01,199 --> 01:54:06,000 ago. 2286 01:54:03,679 --> 01:54:07,840 Before, Lego was only seen as a toy to 2287 01:54:06,000 --> 01:54:10,840 play with when it was cold and you were 2288 01:54:07,840 --> 01:54:10,840 indoors. 2289 01:54:11,199 --> 01:54:16,000 Today, Lego is much more than a toy. 2290 01:54:13,599 --> 01:54:18,320 It's used to create logos to design 2291 01:54:16,000 --> 01:54:21,360 dynamic group activities. And it also 2292 01:54:18,320 --> 01:54:23,599 represents a shift in how we see it. 2293 01:54:21,360 --> 01:54:26,000 years ago, if you said you played with 2294 01:54:23,599 --> 01:54:28,400 Lego or built Lego, you almost had to 2295 01:54:26,000 --> 01:54:30,159 explain yourself that you were at home 2296 01:54:28,400 --> 01:54:32,960 playing with little figures making up 2297 01:54:30,159 --> 01:54:34,880 battles. What we do today is different. 2298 01:54:32,960 --> 01:54:38,560 We come together as a community of 2299 01:54:34,880 --> 01:54:40,400 adults and Lego has recognized that. 2300 01:54:38,560 --> 01:54:42,719 That's why more and more products are 2301 01:54:40,400 --> 01:54:45,440 now designed specifically for adults, 2302 01:54:42,719 --> 01:54:48,440 more complex to build, and also more 2303 01:54:45,440 --> 01:54:48,440 expensive. 2304 01:54:49,520 --> 01:54:53,840 This kid [music] demographic would later 2305 01:54:51,920 --> 01:54:57,440 become one of LEGO's most profitable 2306 01:54:53,840 --> 01:54:59,920 segments. More licenses followed Harry 2307 01:54:57,440 --> 01:55:02,320 Potter, [music] Spider-Man, Batman, 2308 01:54:59,920 --> 01:55:05,040 Indiana Jones, and later the newest 2309 01:55:02,320 --> 01:55:06,639 Marvel Cinematic Universe. 2310 01:55:05,040 --> 01:55:10,080 Even though LEGO learned that [music] 2311 01:55:06,639 --> 01:55:13,360 storytelling sells, in 2004, losses were 2312 01:55:10,080 --> 01:55:15,360 mounting and survival was uncertain. 2313 01:55:13,360 --> 01:55:17,360 And then the company made [music] a 2314 01:55:15,360 --> 01:55:19,679 radical decision. 2315 01:55:17,360 --> 01:55:21,440 For the first time in its history, the 2316 01:55:19,679 --> 01:55:24,320 company appointed [music] a CEO from 2317 01:55:21,440 --> 01:55:25,840 outside the Christensen family, Jurgen 2318 01:55:24,320 --> 01:55:28,239 Victor, 2319 01:55:25,840 --> 01:55:32,080 a 35-year-old [music] former McKenzie 2320 01:55:28,239 --> 01:55:33,599 consultant. He was calm, precise, 2321 01:55:32,080 --> 01:55:37,280 analytical, 2322 01:55:33,599 --> 01:55:40,639 and brutally honest. His diagnosis was 2323 01:55:37,280 --> 01:55:42,880 simple. Lego had forgotten what [music] 2324 01:55:40,639 --> 01:55:45,119 made it Lego. 2325 01:55:42,880 --> 01:55:48,480 Kutto cut the number of unique elements 2326 01:55:45,119 --> 01:55:51,119 by nearly 50%. He sold off the theme 2327 01:55:48,480 --> 01:55:53,280 parks. He shut down unprofitable 2328 01:55:51,119 --> 01:55:55,920 production facilities. [music] He 2329 01:55:53,280 --> 01:55:58,239 centralized supply chains, standardized 2330 01:55:55,920 --> 01:56:01,440 materials, and brought back discipline 2331 01:55:58,239 --> 01:56:03,520 to the system. But more important, he 2332 01:56:01,440 --> 01:56:06,520 put the brick back at the center of the 2333 01:56:03,520 --> 01:56:06,520 company. 2334 01:56:08,159 --> 01:56:13,040 This turnaround didn't happen in 2335 01:56:10,000 --> 01:56:16,320 isolation. The global toy industry was 2336 01:56:13,040 --> 01:56:18,880 undergoing a seismic change. China was 2337 01:56:16,320 --> 01:56:21,440 producing nearly 75% of the world's 2338 01:56:18,880 --> 01:56:24,560 toys, being the largest manufacturing 2339 01:56:21,440 --> 01:56:26,719 consolidation in toy history. 2340 01:56:24,560 --> 01:56:29,280 Meanwhile, the United States had become 2341 01:56:26,719 --> 01:56:31,520 the single largest consumer, responsible 2342 01:56:29,280 --> 01:56:34,520 for nearly onethird of the global toy 2343 01:56:31,520 --> 01:56:34,520 spending. 2344 01:56:34,719 --> 01:56:40,800 By 2005, the toy market was worth close 2345 01:56:38,320 --> 01:56:44,239 to 80 billion US. 2346 01:56:40,800 --> 01:56:46,639 But it was brutally competitive as well. 2347 01:56:44,239 --> 01:56:49,040 Seasonality [music] was extreme. Nearly 2348 01:56:46,639 --> 01:56:51,520 half of the annual toy sales occurred in 2349 01:56:49,040 --> 01:56:53,199 just 3 months [music] from October to 2350 01:56:51,520 --> 01:56:56,320 December. 2351 01:56:53,199 --> 01:56:58,400 Companies lived or died by Christmas. 2352 01:56:56,320 --> 01:57:01,199 Mattel was battling declining Barbie 2353 01:56:58,400 --> 01:57:02,639 sales. Hasbro was betting its future on 2354 01:57:01,199 --> 01:57:04,239 Transformers and board game 2355 01:57:02,639 --> 01:57:06,080 reinventions. 2356 01:57:04,239 --> 01:57:09,040 Electronics were eating market share 2357 01:57:06,080 --> 01:57:13,440 across every age group. In this 2358 01:57:09,040 --> 01:57:19,400 scenario, LEGO rebuilt and refocused and 2359 01:57:13,440 --> 01:57:19,400 then began rising above all of them. 2360 01:57:22,560 --> 01:57:29,846 Between 2008 and 2015, LEGO entered a 2361 01:57:26,800 --> 01:57:31,760 new era, a renaissance driven by design, 2362 01:57:29,846 --> 01:57:35,280 [music] storytelling, digital 2363 01:57:31,760 --> 01:57:37,119 engagement, and adult passion. 2364 01:57:35,280 --> 01:57:40,000 The company launched the ultimate 2365 01:57:37,119 --> 01:57:42,000 collector series, producing the largest, 2366 01:57:40,000 --> 01:57:43,520 most [music] detailed models in toy 2367 01:57:42,000 --> 01:57:45,760 history. 2368 01:57:43,520 --> 01:57:47,280 Lego architecture brought landmarks to 2369 01:57:45,760 --> 01:57:49,599 coffee tables. [music] 2370 01:57:47,280 --> 01:57:52,239 Modular buildings turned living rooms 2371 01:57:49,599 --> 01:57:54,639 into miniature cities, and adults were 2372 01:57:52,239 --> 01:57:57,520 no longer hiding their Lego hobby, but 2373 01:57:54,639 --> 01:57:59,520 embracing it. My story with Lego began 2374 01:57:57,520 --> 01:58:01,440 in the early 90s when I was a small 2375 01:57:59,520 --> 01:58:03,760 child. 2376 01:58:01,440 --> 01:58:06,800 I started playing but then I stopped for 2377 01:58:03,760 --> 01:58:08,880 a while. This is what most of us want to 2378 01:58:06,800 --> 01:58:10,880 do when we are teenagers to do other 2379 01:58:08,880 --> 01:58:13,880 hobbies and spend less time playing with 2380 01:58:10,880 --> 01:58:13,880 Lego. 2381 01:58:14,480 --> 01:58:19,760 After that, when I was in my early 20s, 2382 01:58:16,400 --> 01:58:21,920 I started collecting Lego. I met people 2383 01:58:19,760 --> 01:58:24,480 from the Valencian community and founded 2384 01:58:21,920 --> 01:58:26,320 Valre. 2385 01:58:24,480 --> 01:58:28,880 That eventually led me to a television 2386 01:58:26,320 --> 01:58:31,119 show where I took part and won. From 2387 01:58:28,880 --> 01:58:34,599 there, companies began approaching me to 2388 01:58:31,119 --> 01:58:34,599 develop projects. 2389 01:58:35,920 --> 01:58:39,679 At first, this hadn't even [music] 2390 01:58:37,360 --> 01:58:41,920 occurred to me. 2391 01:58:39,679 --> 01:58:44,239 But I started to see a growing demand, 2392 01:58:41,920 --> 01:58:46,159 whether it was building a corporate kit, 2393 01:58:44,239 --> 01:58:47,840 like a transport company's truck [music] 2394 01:58:46,159 --> 01:58:49,760 or even a company's logistics 2395 01:58:47,840 --> 01:58:51,440 headquarters. 2396 01:58:49,760 --> 01:58:53,520 This market opened up a professional 2397 01:58:51,440 --> 01:58:55,440 path for me. 2398 01:58:53,520 --> 01:58:58,880 It supports me financially, but more 2399 01:58:55,440 --> 01:59:00,880 importantly, it's deeply rewarding. 2400 01:58:58,880 --> 01:59:02,480 Many of these projects challenge me to 2401 01:59:00,880 --> 01:59:04,000 build things I would never choose on my 2402 01:59:02,480 --> 01:59:06,719 own. 2403 01:59:04,000 --> 01:59:08,639 But once a challenge is set, build this, 2404 01:59:06,719 --> 01:59:11,440 my mind immediately starts collecting 2405 01:59:08,639 --> 01:59:13,440 ideas, figuring out how to shape them 2406 01:59:11,440 --> 01:59:17,239 and bring the project to life in the 2407 01:59:13,440 --> 01:59:17,239 best possible way. 2408 01:59:18,639 --> 01:59:24,000 The adult [music] fans of Lego 2409 01:59:20,400 --> 01:59:26,960 skyrocketed. forums, conventions, fan 2410 01:59:24,000 --> 01:59:31,040 events, engineering clubs. A global 2411 01:59:26,960 --> 01:59:33,360 movement emerged. By 2014, adults 2412 01:59:31,040 --> 01:59:34,560 accounted for nearly 1/3 [music] of LEGO 2413 01:59:33,360 --> 01:59:37,040 sales. 2414 01:59:34,560 --> 01:59:39,280 >> To anyone who thinks Lego is only for 2415 01:59:37,040 --> 01:59:40,880 children, I'd say come and see the 2416 01:59:39,280 --> 01:59:42,719 exhibition. 2417 01:59:40,880 --> 01:59:45,440 See what we're capable of creating with 2418 01:59:42,719 --> 01:59:49,520 Lego pieces and how imagination develops 2419 01:59:45,440 --> 01:59:51,679 in both children and adults. 2420 01:59:49,520 --> 01:59:54,480 Children work within certain limits and 2421 01:59:51,679 --> 01:59:57,199 see things differently, but adults with 2422 01:59:54,480 --> 01:59:59,840 a wider range of colors, shapes, and 2423 01:59:57,199 --> 02:00:02,960 ways to use the pieces can explore just 2424 01:59:59,840 --> 02:00:04,960 how much is possible. 2425 02:00:02,960 --> 02:00:07,360 >> It was a radical shift in the economics 2426 02:00:04,960 --> 02:00:09,760 of play. [music] And then came the 2427 02:00:07,360 --> 02:00:12,800 cultural explosion. 2428 02:00:09,760 --> 02:00:15,920 In 2014, The Lego Movie shattered 2429 02:00:12,800 --> 02:00:19,199 expectations, earning nearly $500 2430 02:00:15,920 --> 02:00:22,159 million US [music] at the box office. 2431 02:00:19,199 --> 02:00:25,760 What started as a toy was now pop 2432 02:00:22,159 --> 02:00:27,840 culture. By the mid 2010s, 2433 02:00:25,760 --> 02:00:30,320 Lego was the world's most valuable toy 2434 02:00:27,840 --> 02:00:33,520 company, even surpassing [music] Mattel, 2435 02:00:30,320 --> 02:00:35,520 Hasbro, and every other competitor. 2436 02:00:33,520 --> 02:00:38,960 The brick [music] that started it all 2437 02:00:35,520 --> 02:00:42,520 was no longer just a product. It was a 2438 02:00:38,960 --> 02:00:42,520 global icon. 2439 02:00:44,400 --> 02:00:48,480 The LEGO Group stands today as one of 2440 02:00:46,719 --> 02:00:50,480 the most efficient, [music] profitable, 2441 02:00:48,480 --> 02:00:53,280 and culturally influential toy companies 2442 02:00:50,480 --> 02:00:55,520 on Earth. Its factories run with near 2443 02:00:53,280 --> 02:00:57,679 perfect precision. 2444 02:00:55,520 --> 02:01:00,880 Its design teams develop thousands of 2445 02:00:57,679 --> 02:01:02,800 prototypes each year. Its supply chain 2446 02:01:00,880 --> 02:01:05,679 delivers billions of bricks that must 2447 02:01:02,800 --> 02:01:07,520 all fit together flawlessly across 2448 02:01:05,679 --> 02:01:10,239 decades. 2449 02:01:07,520 --> 02:01:14,239 In a global toy market worth roughly 2450 02:01:10,239 --> 02:01:18,560 $120 billion a year, Lego commands 2451 02:01:14,239 --> 02:01:21,440 nearly 9% of all worldwide toy sales. No 2452 02:01:18,560 --> 02:01:24,320 other toy brand, not Barbie, not Marvel 2453 02:01:21,440 --> 02:01:26,400 figures, not Nintendo merchandise, 2454 02:01:24,320 --> 02:01:30,159 maintains such consistency across 2455 02:01:26,400 --> 02:01:32,159 continents, genders, and generations. 2456 02:01:30,159 --> 02:01:35,280 And unlike most toy companies that 2457 02:01:32,159 --> 02:01:36,719 outsource manufacturing, LEGO controls a 2458 02:01:35,280 --> 02:01:39,840 significant portion of its own 2459 02:01:36,719 --> 02:01:42,400 production with major hubs in Denmark, 2460 02:01:39,840 --> 02:01:44,400 Hungary, Mexico, China, and the Czech 2461 02:01:42,400 --> 02:01:47,199 Republic. 2462 02:01:44,400 --> 02:01:49,760 This vertical integration reduces risk, 2463 02:01:47,199 --> 02:01:51,599 stabilizes quality, and protects one of 2464 02:01:49,760 --> 02:01:54,880 the most important values in the 2465 02:01:51,599 --> 02:01:57,199 company's DNA, precision. 2466 02:01:54,880 --> 02:01:59,520 Every Lego brick must be manufactured 2467 02:01:57,199 --> 02:02:02,639 with tolerances thinner than a strand of 2468 02:01:59,520 --> 02:02:06,159 hair. If the clutch is too tight, the 2469 02:02:02,639 --> 02:02:09,280 model breaks. If it's too loose, towers 2470 02:02:06,159 --> 02:02:12,000 collapse. Across billions of pieces, 2471 02:02:09,280 --> 02:02:16,159 perfection is not an [music] ambition. 2472 02:02:12,000 --> 02:02:18,239 It is an engineering reality for LEGO. 2473 02:02:16,159 --> 02:02:20,320 This level of detail gives the company 2474 02:02:18,239 --> 02:02:23,040 one of the highest brand trust ratings 2475 02:02:20,320 --> 02:02:24,320 in the world. Parents know the bricks 2476 02:02:23,040 --> 02:02:26,800 will last. 2477 02:02:24,320 --> 02:02:29,040 Adults know the sets will impress. 2478 02:02:26,800 --> 02:02:30,719 Collectors know the investment will hold 2479 02:02:29,040 --> 02:02:32,960 value. 2480 02:02:30,719 --> 02:02:35,679 The modern toy market is a machine of 2481 02:02:32,960 --> 02:02:37,440 impulse, tradition, celebration, and 2482 02:02:35,679 --> 02:02:39,360 nostalgia. 2483 02:02:37,440 --> 02:02:42,880 In 2025, 2484 02:02:39,360 --> 02:02:45,920 global spending on toys approaches $120 2485 02:02:42,880 --> 02:02:48,639 billion, nearly double what it was two 2486 02:02:45,920 --> 02:02:50,159 decades earlier. The United States 2487 02:02:48,639 --> 02:02:52,239 remains the world's [music] largest 2488 02:02:50,159 --> 02:02:55,360 consumer, accounting for roughly 2489 02:02:52,239 --> 02:02:57,349 onethird of global sales. A typical 2490 02:02:55,360 --> 02:03:00,639 American household with children may 2491 02:02:57,349 --> 02:03:03,520 [music] spend $300 to $400 per child per 2492 02:03:00,639 --> 02:03:06,480 year on toys. This is more than five 2493 02:03:03,520 --> 02:03:08,880 times the global [music] average. 2494 02:03:06,480 --> 02:03:10,560 Europe forms the second largest block 2495 02:03:08,880 --> 02:03:14,000 with strong purchasing [music] power in 2496 02:03:10,560 --> 02:03:16,480 Germany, the United Kingdom, and France. 2497 02:03:14,000 --> 02:03:18,080 Asia-Pacific is rapidly growing, 2498 02:03:16,480 --> 02:03:20,960 especially in [music] China, South 2499 02:03:18,080 --> 02:03:24,480 Korea, and Japan, driven by rising 2500 02:03:20,960 --> 02:03:26,880 middle classes and urban lifestyles. 2501 02:03:24,480 --> 02:03:30,239 But the most important shift of the last 2502 02:03:26,880 --> 02:03:33,430 decade is not geographic, it is 2503 02:03:30,239 --> 02:03:33,430 demographic. [laughter] 2504 02:03:37,280 --> 02:03:42,159 Adults, once considered irrelevant to 2505 02:03:39,940 --> 02:03:45,280 [music] the toy industry, are now one of 2506 02:03:42,159 --> 02:03:48,400 the most powerful forces. This growing 2507 02:03:45,280 --> 02:03:51,760 segment, commonly called the kid market, 2508 02:03:48,400 --> 02:03:54,639 now represents between 25 and 30% of all 2509 02:03:51,760 --> 02:03:56,960 toy purchases worldwide. 2510 02:03:54,639 --> 02:04:00,320 Adults buy toys for nostalgia, [music] 2511 02:03:56,960 --> 02:04:01,760 for stress relief, for display, for 2512 02:04:00,320 --> 02:04:04,000 identity. 2513 02:04:01,760 --> 02:04:05,119 Lego is the undisputed champion of this 2514 02:04:04,000 --> 02:04:07,520 movement. 2515 02:04:05,119 --> 02:04:10,840 >> Unlike other hobbies, Lego gives me a 2516 02:04:07,520 --> 02:04:10,840 sense of calm. 2517 02:04:12,000 --> 02:04:16,639 It lets me take ideas from my mind, 2518 02:04:14,320 --> 02:04:20,000 bring them to life, think them through, 2519 02:04:16,639 --> 02:04:22,800 and simply enjoy the process. Right now, 2520 02:04:20,000 --> 02:04:25,119 I'm trying to instill that in my son to 2521 02:04:22,800 --> 02:04:27,280 enjoy himself, to learn to see colors 2522 02:04:25,119 --> 02:04:30,719 and shapes, and to understand that with 2523 02:04:27,280 --> 02:04:33,635 imagination, anything is possible. 2524 02:04:30,719 --> 02:04:35,599 Its premium sets, Technic Hypercars, 2525 02:04:33,635 --> 02:04:38,719 [music] Star Wars Ultimate Collector 2526 02:04:35,599 --> 02:04:41,599 Series, iconic landmarks, regularly 2527 02:04:38,719 --> 02:04:43,840 exceed prices of $30,500, 2528 02:04:41,599 --> 02:04:46,639 even $800. 2529 02:04:43,840 --> 02:04:48,480 They sell out within hours. They hold 2530 02:04:46,639 --> 02:04:51,280 aftermarket values like fine 2531 02:04:48,480 --> 02:04:53,520 collectibles. This adult segment has 2532 02:04:51,280 --> 02:04:56,639 reshaped the entire financial landscape 2533 02:04:53,520 --> 02:04:59,679 of the company. It provides stability 2534 02:04:56,639 --> 02:05:02,639 when children's trends shift. It creates 2535 02:04:59,679 --> 02:05:05,040 recurring revenue from loyal fans, and 2536 02:05:02,639 --> 02:05:08,000 it strengthens LEGO's position as a 2537 02:05:05,040 --> 02:05:11,040 crossgenerational brand, something few 2538 02:05:08,000 --> 02:05:13,280 toy companies have ever achieved. 2539 02:05:11,040 --> 02:05:16,239 Seasonality still dictates much of the 2540 02:05:13,280 --> 02:05:18,480 global toy market. Every year, nearly 2541 02:05:16,239 --> 02:05:21,840 half of all toy sales occur between 2542 02:05:18,480 --> 02:05:24,719 October and December. Companies live or 2543 02:05:21,840 --> 02:05:28,080 die by holiday forecasting, inventory 2544 02:05:24,719 --> 02:05:30,800 strategy, and shipment timing. But LEGO 2545 02:05:28,080 --> 02:05:33,679 has become the exception. Adult 2546 02:05:30,800 --> 02:05:36,000 collectors buy year round. Digital 2547 02:05:33,679 --> 02:05:39,119 experiences drive sales outside the 2548 02:05:36,000 --> 02:05:42,400 holiday season. Licensed launches create 2549 02:05:39,119 --> 02:05:45,119 anticipation even in slow quarters. 2550 02:05:42,400 --> 02:05:47,040 LEGO has effectively freed itself or at 2551 02:05:45,119 --> 02:05:49,199 least partially from the seasonal 2552 02:05:47,040 --> 02:05:51,840 dependency that has defined the toy 2553 02:05:49,199 --> 02:05:54,800 industry for over a century. 2554 02:05:51,840 --> 02:05:57,520 The brick is physical, tangible, 2555 02:05:54,800 --> 02:06:00,400 mechanical. But LEGO's success in the 2556 02:05:57,520 --> 02:06:05,199 21st century extends into digital 2557 02:06:00,400 --> 02:06:07,520 worlds. Star Wars, Batman, Marvel. These 2558 02:06:05,199 --> 02:06:10,800 games defined an entire generation of 2559 02:06:07,520 --> 02:06:13,360 familyfriendly titles. They sold tens of 2560 02:06:10,800 --> 02:06:16,560 millions of copies. They introduced 2561 02:06:13,360 --> 02:06:20,080 humor, storytelling, and simplicity to a 2562 02:06:16,560 --> 02:06:22,239 medium often dominated by complexity. 2563 02:06:20,080 --> 02:06:25,199 For many children born after the year 2564 02:06:22,239 --> 02:06:29,119 2000, Lego was not discovered in a toy 2565 02:06:25,199 --> 02:06:31,920 box, but on a screen. The cinematic leap 2566 02:06:29,119 --> 02:06:34,719 came in 2014 when the Lego movie 2567 02:06:31,920 --> 02:06:37,520 premiered to global acclaim. It earned 2568 02:06:34,719 --> 02:06:40,159 nearly half a billion dollars. Most 2569 02:06:37,520 --> 02:06:43,520 importantly, it reframed Lego as a 2570 02:06:40,159 --> 02:06:45,840 cultural idea, not a product. The film 2571 02:06:43,520 --> 02:06:49,119 taught a global audience that creativity 2572 02:06:45,840 --> 02:06:51,199 matters, that imperfection is beautiful, 2573 02:06:49,119 --> 02:06:54,960 that building and rebuilding are not 2574 02:06:51,199 --> 02:06:58,079 failures, they are the process of play. 2575 02:06:54,960 --> 02:07:00,239 Lego Batman expanded the concept. Lego 2576 02:06:58,079 --> 02:07:03,599 Ninjago created an entirely new 2577 02:07:00,239 --> 02:07:05,679 generation of fans and Lego Masters on 2578 02:07:03,599 --> 02:07:07,840 television turned building into a 2579 02:07:05,679 --> 02:07:10,239 competitive art form. 2580 02:07:07,840 --> 02:07:13,520 The brand had moved beyond toys, [music] 2581 02:07:10,239 --> 02:07:15,599 beyond stories, beyond bricks. It had 2582 02:07:13,520 --> 02:07:19,480 become part of the cultural grammar of 2583 02:07:15,599 --> 02:07:19,480 the 21st century. 2584 02:07:23,199 --> 02:07:27,520 Long before STEM became a global 2585 02:07:25,280 --> 02:07:30,719 movement, Lego was already teaching 2586 02:07:27,520 --> 02:07:33,599 children how to think like engineers. In 2587 02:07:30,719 --> 02:07:35,760 the 1990s, LEGO Mindstorms [music] 2588 02:07:33,599 --> 02:07:39,360 introduced programmable robotics to 2589 02:07:35,760 --> 02:07:42,239 students around the world. Later sets, 2590 02:07:39,360 --> 02:07:44,400 we do Spike Prime, Boost, brought 2591 02:07:42,239 --> 02:07:47,760 coding, sensors, and motors into 2592 02:07:44,400 --> 02:07:49,760 classrooms and homes. Today, LEGO 2593 02:07:47,760 --> 02:07:52,000 Education works with governments, 2594 02:07:49,760 --> 02:07:53,760 schools, and universities to bring 2595 02:07:52,000 --> 02:07:57,040 hands-on learning to millions [music] of 2596 02:07:53,760 --> 02:07:59,679 students. The philosophy is simple. 2597 02:07:57,040 --> 02:08:02,079 Children learn best through play. This 2598 02:07:59,679 --> 02:08:05,203 approach shapes future engineers, 2599 02:08:02,079 --> 02:08:06,960 designers, and problem solvers. It helps 2600 02:08:05,203 --> 02:08:09,840 [music] children experiment in ways that 2601 02:08:06,960 --> 02:08:12,719 textbooks cannot. And it continues 2602 02:08:09,840 --> 02:08:14,560 Olirk's belief that play is not a 2603 02:08:12,719 --> 02:08:17,520 distraction [music] from learning, but 2604 02:08:14,560 --> 02:08:19,599 the foundation of it. 2605 02:08:17,520 --> 02:08:20,400 In a world increasingly focused on 2606 02:08:19,599 --> 02:08:22,400 sustainability, [music] 2607 02:08:20,400 --> 02:08:24,320 >> from my experience, what makes Lego 2608 02:08:22,400 --> 02:08:27,199 different from other construction toys 2609 02:08:24,320 --> 02:08:29,520 is its growing commitment to inclusion. 2610 02:08:27,199 --> 02:08:30,880 In recent years, LEGO has actively 2611 02:08:29,520 --> 02:08:33,119 embraced people with different 2612 02:08:30,880 --> 02:08:35,040 abilities. For example, by including 2613 02:08:33,119 --> 02:08:37,760 figures in wheelchairs and releasing 2614 02:08:35,040 --> 02:08:39,599 sets in Braille. These are things most 2615 02:08:37,760 --> 02:08:41,679 other brands simply don't offer, but 2616 02:08:39,599 --> 02:08:43,920 LEGO does. 2617 02:08:41,679 --> 02:08:45,840 In addition, LEGO is strongly committed 2618 02:08:43,920 --> 02:08:47,440 to the environment. 2619 02:08:45,840 --> 02:08:49,679 They're producing more and more pieces 2620 02:08:47,440 --> 02:08:51,280 using recycled plastic and replacing 2621 02:08:49,679 --> 02:08:53,599 plastic packaging [music] with paper to 2622 02:08:51,280 --> 02:08:57,040 reduce waste, something other brands 2623 02:08:53,599 --> 02:09:00,079 simply don't do. 2624 02:08:57,040 --> 02:09:02,560 Lego faces a unique challenge. Its 2625 02:09:00,079 --> 02:09:05,040 bricks are made to last forever. A 2626 02:09:02,560 --> 02:09:08,719 blessing for creativity, but a concern 2627 02:09:05,040 --> 02:09:10,800 in an era of plastic waste. In response, 2628 02:09:08,719 --> 02:09:12,719 LEGO has invested hundreds of millions 2629 02:09:10,800 --> 02:09:14,880 of dollars into developing more 2630 02:09:12,719 --> 02:09:17,520 sustainable materials. 2631 02:09:14,880 --> 02:09:20,239 Plant-based polyethylene is already used 2632 02:09:17,520 --> 02:09:23,760 for leaves and trees. Recycled [music] 2633 02:09:20,239 --> 02:09:26,239 PT prototypes continue to advance. 2634 02:09:23,760 --> 02:09:27,760 Recycled PET prototypes continue to 2635 02:09:26,239 --> 02:09:30,079 advance. 2636 02:09:27,760 --> 02:09:33,440 New polymer engineering aims to create 2637 02:09:30,079 --> 02:09:36,000 bricks [music] as durable as ABS without 2638 02:09:33,440 --> 02:09:36,960 the environmental cost. 2639 02:09:36,000 --> 02:09:40,000 This transition [music] 2640 02:09:36,960 --> 02:09:42,880 is not simple. A Lego brick must 2641 02:09:40,000 --> 02:09:44,764 interlock with perfect precision. A 2642 02:09:42,880 --> 02:09:46,480 fraction of a millimeter can make the 2643 02:09:44,764 --> 02:09:48,000 [music] difference between wonder and 2644 02:09:46,480 --> 02:09:50,639 frustration. 2645 02:09:48,000 --> 02:09:52,480 But the mission is clear. A toy that 2646 02:09:50,639 --> 02:09:55,599 lasts [music] forever should also 2647 02:09:52,480 --> 02:09:57,280 protect the world it is played in. Play 2648 02:09:55,599 --> 02:10:01,520 is not a luxury. [music] 2649 02:09:57,280 --> 02:10:03,760 Play is exploration. Play is curiosity. 2650 02:10:01,520 --> 02:10:05,679 Play is the earliest form of human 2651 02:10:03,760 --> 02:10:07,760 creativity. 2652 02:10:05,679 --> 02:10:10,320 From wooden ducks in a small Danish 2653 02:10:07,760 --> 02:10:12,400 workshop to interlocking bricks that 2654 02:10:10,320 --> 02:10:15,760 span generations 2655 02:10:12,400 --> 02:10:18,639 to movies, video games, robotics, and 2656 02:10:15,760 --> 02:10:21,280 global fan communities. LEGO has 2657 02:10:18,639 --> 02:10:25,119 remained loyal to a simple truth. When 2658 02:10:21,280 --> 02:10:28,800 we build, we grow. When we imagine, we 2659 02:10:25,119 --> 02:10:31,800 expand. When we play, we become more 2660 02:10:28,800 --> 02:10:31,800 human. 2661 02:10:35,679 --> 02:10:41,360 More than a century ago, a carpenter 2662 02:10:38,480 --> 02:10:44,239 rebuilt his workshop after a fire. He 2663 02:10:41,360 --> 02:10:47,040 rebuilt [music] it again after another. 2664 02:10:44,239 --> 02:10:49,520 Not because it was easy, but because he 2665 02:10:47,040 --> 02:10:52,960 believed in the power of making things 2666 02:10:49,520 --> 02:10:54,960 and in the power [music] of play. Today, 2667 02:10:52,960 --> 02:10:58,560 billions of creations have risen from 2668 02:10:54,960 --> 02:11:00,400 that belief. Cities, castles, 2669 02:10:58,560 --> 02:11:02,400 spaceships, 2670 02:11:00,400 --> 02:11:05,599 dreams that exist nowhere else but in 2671 02:11:02,400 --> 02:11:08,639 the minds of the people who build them. 2672 02:11:05,599 --> 02:11:10,639 Lego is not perfect. It has faced 2673 02:11:08,639 --> 02:11:14,639 crises, challenges, [screaming] 2674 02:11:10,639 --> 02:11:16,639 and impossible decisions. But it endures 2675 02:11:14,639 --> 02:11:20,079 through war, through technological 2676 02:11:16,639 --> 02:11:23,679 revolutions, through economic storms. 2677 02:11:20,079 --> 02:11:25,599 Because imagination always endures. 2678 02:11:23,679 --> 02:11:28,480 And as long as there are hands reaching 2679 02:11:25,599 --> 02:11:31,599 for bricks, as long as there are minds 2680 02:11:28,480 --> 02:11:34,480 ready to create, the legacy of Ole Ker 2681 02:11:31,599 --> 02:11:37,199 Christensen will continue. 2682 02:11:34,480 --> 02:11:40,199 Every [music] dream starts with a single 2683 02:11:37,199 --> 02:11:40,199 piece. 2684 02:13:06,400 --> 02:13:14,159 Jensen Hang the Software Moat. 2685 02:13:10,719 --> 02:13:17,520 June 18th, 2024. 2686 02:13:14,159 --> 02:13:19,607 For a brief historic moment, the world 2687 02:13:17,520 --> 02:13:22,639 had a new king. 2688 02:13:19,607 --> 02:13:25,520 [music] Jensen Huang, the co-founder and 2689 02:13:22,639 --> 02:13:29,760 CEO of Nvidia, stood at the peak of a 2690 02:13:25,520 --> 02:13:32,079 $3.4 trillion mountain. 2691 02:13:29,760 --> 02:13:35,119 Analysts whispered that he wasn't just 2692 02:13:32,079 --> 02:13:37,760 leading a company. He was leading the 2693 02:13:35,119 --> 02:13:41,679 first entity [music] destined for a $4 2694 02:13:37,760 --> 02:13:43,599 trillion valuation. 2695 02:13:41,679 --> 02:13:47,119 But to understand the man in the leather 2696 02:13:43,599 --> 02:13:49,920 jacket, you cannot look at the triumph. 2697 02:13:47,119 --> 02:13:53,920 You must look at the fear. 2698 02:13:49,920 --> 02:13:58,000 Behind the 250% revenue jumps and the 2699 02:13:53,920 --> 02:14:01,119 soldout age 100 backlogs lies a leader 2700 02:13:58,000 --> 02:14:02,800 obsessed with the cyclical trap. 2701 02:14:01,119 --> 02:14:05,280 In the 60-year history of 2702 02:14:02,800 --> 02:14:08,480 semiconductors, [music] giants like 2703 02:14:05,280 --> 02:14:11,920 Texas Instruments, Intel, and Samsung 2704 02:14:08,480 --> 02:14:14,320 have all held the crown only to see it 2705 02:14:11,920 --> 02:14:17,360 slip away. 2706 02:14:14,320 --> 02:14:22,159 Jensen's mission is simple. Break the 2707 02:14:17,360 --> 02:14:25,280 cycle before it breaks him. 2708 02:14:22,159 --> 02:14:27,840 Flashback to September 1996. 2709 02:14:25,280 --> 02:14:30,239 The golden era of the internet is 2710 02:14:27,840 --> 02:14:34,239 dawning for everyone else but for 2711 02:14:30,239 --> 02:14:37,280 Nvidia. It is a death nail. 2712 02:14:34,239 --> 02:14:40,239 Their first chip, the NV1, is a 2713 02:14:37,280 --> 02:14:42,719 technical ghost rejected by Microsoft's 2714 02:14:40,239 --> 02:14:45,280 DirectX. 2715 02:14:42,719 --> 02:14:48,079 Jensen stands before a dwindling team 2716 02:14:45,280 --> 02:14:50,719 and delivers the most famous mantra in 2717 02:14:48,079 --> 02:14:54,639 Silicon Valley history. 2718 02:14:50,719 --> 02:14:58,239 We have exactly 30 days of oxygen left. 2719 02:14:54,639 --> 02:15:00,560 We are 30 days from bankruptcy. 2720 02:14:58,239 --> 02:15:02,960 How does a man go from cleaning toilets 2721 02:15:00,560 --> 02:15:04,960 in a Kentucky reform school to 2722 02:15:02,960 --> 02:15:08,079 controlling the foundational layer of 2723 02:15:04,960 --> 02:15:10,960 the global AI economy? 2724 02:15:08,079 --> 02:15:14,239 From a red leather booth at a Denny's to 2725 02:15:10,960 --> 02:15:16,560 a legal showdown in the US Supreme Court 2726 02:15:14,239 --> 02:15:18,320 over the very intellectual honesty of 2727 02:15:16,560 --> 02:15:20,960 his empire. 2728 02:15:18,320 --> 02:15:22,480 This is not just a story of silicon and 2729 02:15:20,960 --> 02:15:24,639 software. 2730 02:15:22,480 --> 02:15:26,880 This is the chronicle of the man who 2731 02:15:24,639 --> 02:15:28,480 decided to manufacture intelligence 2732 02:15:26,880 --> 02:15:32,079 itself. 2733 02:15:28,480 --> 02:15:35,520 This is Jensen Hang, the architect of 2734 02:15:32,079 --> 02:15:40,760 the digital brain. 2735 02:15:35,520 --> 02:15:40,760 Chapter 1. Forged in the chaos, 2736 02:15:40,960 --> 02:15:46,960 Nvidia was not born from abundance. Its 2737 02:15:44,400 --> 02:15:49,040 DNA was forged in the raw fires of 2738 02:15:46,960 --> 02:15:51,920 survival. 2739 02:15:49,040 --> 02:15:54,639 Jen's son Huang arrived in the United 2740 02:15:51,920 --> 02:15:58,000 States as a young migrant, but his 2741 02:15:54,639 --> 02:16:00,400 destination wasn't an elite prep school. 2742 02:15:58,000 --> 02:16:01,679 Due to a clerical misunderstanding by 2743 02:16:00,400 --> 02:16:04,079 his parents, [music] 2744 02:16:01,679 --> 02:16:07,520 he was sent to Onida Baptist Institute 2745 02:16:04,079 --> 02:16:10,320 in rural Kentucky, a place that at the 2746 02:16:07,520 --> 02:16:12,719 time functioned more as a reform school 2747 02:16:10,320 --> 02:16:14,239 for troubled youths than a traditional 2748 02:16:12,719 --> 02:16:17,360 academy. 2749 02:16:14,239 --> 02:16:19,440 At 9 years old, the future CEO of one of 2750 02:16:17,360 --> 02:16:22,000 the world's most valuable companies 2751 02:16:19,440 --> 02:16:24,960 wasn't coding. He was cleaning the 2752 02:16:22,000 --> 02:16:27,440 toilets of [music] 150 teenagers every 2753 02:16:24,960 --> 02:16:30,000 single afternoon. 2754 02:16:27,440 --> 02:16:31,599 In his personal transcripts, Jensen 2755 02:16:30,000 --> 02:16:35,120 reflects on this with a chilling 2756 02:16:31,599 --> 02:16:37,519 stoicism. I didn't complain. I just 2757 02:16:35,120 --> 02:16:39,439 learned to work hard. 2758 02:16:37,519 --> 02:16:42,080 Bad boy learned the first law of 2759 02:16:39,439 --> 02:16:45,679 accelerated computing decades before it 2760 02:16:42,080 --> 02:16:48,240 existed. For a system to be efficient, 2761 02:16:45,679 --> 02:16:51,439 it must be able to process chaos under 2762 02:16:48,240 --> 02:16:54,559 extreme pressure. 2763 02:16:51,439 --> 02:16:56,960 By 15, Jensen was the most efficient 2764 02:16:54,559 --> 02:16:59,840 dishwasher and waiter at a Denny's in 2765 02:16:56,960 --> 02:17:02,479 Portland. I was incredibly shy, [music] 2766 02:16:59,840 --> 02:17:05,519 he admits. But the chaos of the kitchen 2767 02:17:02,479 --> 02:17:08,000 forced me out of my shell. 2768 02:17:05,519 --> 02:17:11,599 It is no coincidence that Nvidia was 2769 02:17:08,000 --> 02:17:14,319 founded in 1993 inside a booth at that 2770 02:17:11,599 --> 02:17:16,000 very same restaurant chain. 2771 02:17:14,319 --> 02:17:17,920 While the [music] world saw the dawn of 2772 02:17:16,000 --> 02:17:21,439 the PC as an office tool for 2773 02:17:17,920 --> 02:17:26,960 spreadsheets, Jensen, Chris Mahovski, 2774 02:17:21,439 --> 02:17:30,160 and Curtis Pium saw a fatal weakness. 2775 02:17:26,960 --> 02:17:34,080 In 1993, [music] Intel's generalpurpose 2776 02:17:30,160 --> 02:17:36,160 CPU was hitting a physical wall. If the 2777 02:17:34,080 --> 02:17:38,639 future of computing was visual and 2778 02:17:36,160 --> 02:17:40,719 immersive, the traditional serial 2779 02:17:38,639 --> 02:17:43,120 architecture would become the bottleneck 2780 02:17:40,719 --> 02:17:46,559 of human progress. 2781 02:17:43,120 --> 02:17:49,679 With only $40,000 in startup capital, 2782 02:17:46,559 --> 02:17:52,160 they founded Nvidia to chase a ghost, 2783 02:17:49,679 --> 02:17:54,080 accelerated computing. 2784 02:17:52,160 --> 02:17:57,120 They bet on a market the rest of the 2785 02:17:54,080 --> 02:18:00,240 industry dismissed as a niche for toys, 2786 02:17:57,120 --> 02:18:01,920 video games. Before Jensen, [music] 2787 02:18:00,240 --> 02:18:04,319 video games were the ultimate 2788 02:18:01,920 --> 02:18:06,319 technological flywheel. 2789 02:18:04,319 --> 02:18:08,240 He knew that if you could master the 2790 02:18:06,319 --> 02:18:10,800 massive realtime [music] rendering of 2791 02:18:08,240 --> 02:18:13,519 pixels, you could eventually simulate 2792 02:18:10,800 --> 02:18:15,920 reality itself. 2793 02:18:13,519 --> 02:18:18,240 But before they could reach that glory, 2794 02:18:15,920 --> 02:18:22,840 they had to survive their first massive 2795 02:18:18,240 --> 02:18:22,840 technical abyss, the NV1. 2796 02:18:30,160 --> 02:18:37,359 By 1995, Nvidia's first massive bet, the 2797 02:18:34,399 --> 02:18:40,000 NV1 chip, was ready to conquer the 2798 02:18:37,359 --> 02:18:43,040 market. But Jensen Huang had made a 2799 02:18:40,000 --> 02:18:44,639 catastrophic technical gamble. 2800 02:18:43,040 --> 02:18:47,920 At a time when the industry was 2801 02:18:44,639 --> 02:18:50,319 undecided, he bet on quadratic texture 2802 02:18:47,920 --> 02:18:53,599 mapping, a method that used curved 2803 02:18:50,319 --> 02:18:55,626 surfaces to create 3D images. 2804 02:18:53,599 --> 02:18:58,880 It was mathematically intelligent, 2805 02:18:55,626 --> 02:19:00,479 [music] but it was a lonely path. 2806 02:18:58,880 --> 02:19:02,176 The industry hammer dropped when 2807 02:19:00,479 --> 02:19:02,880 Microsoft released its first DirectX 2808 02:19:02,176 --> 02:19:06,240 [music] 2809 02:19:02,880 --> 02:19:08,960 API. Microsoft chose triangles, not 2810 02:19:06,240 --> 02:19:10,639 quads, as the universal language for PC 2811 02:19:08,960 --> 02:19:12,479 gaming. 2812 02:19:10,639 --> 02:19:16,000 This decision rendered Nvidia's 2813 02:19:12,479 --> 02:19:19,120 technology instantly [music] obsolete. 2814 02:19:16,000 --> 02:19:22,880 The NV1 wasn't just a failure, it was a 2815 02:19:19,120 --> 02:19:25,760 dead end. The company was bleeding cash, 2816 02:19:22,880 --> 02:19:31,080 and as Jensen famously put it, they were 2817 02:19:25,760 --> 02:19:31,080 staring at exactly 30 days of oxygen. 2818 02:19:31,599 --> 02:19:36,800 Nvidia's only lifeline was a strategic 2819 02:19:34,240 --> 02:19:38,639 contract with the Japanese giant Sega to 2820 02:19:36,800 --> 02:19:41,439 build the graphics engine for the Sega 2821 02:19:38,639 --> 02:19:44,399 Saturn. But Jensen was trapped in a 2822 02:19:41,439 --> 02:19:46,559 moral and business dilemma. 2823 02:19:44,399 --> 02:19:49,120 He knew that if they continued building 2824 02:19:46,559 --> 02:19:52,160 the chip for Sega using Nvidia's flawed 2825 02:19:49,120 --> 02:19:55,040 quad technology, Sega would lose the 2826 02:19:52,160 --> 02:19:58,240 console war to Sony's PlayStation and 2827 02:19:55,040 --> 02:19:59,816 Nvidia would eventually perish anyway. 2828 02:19:58,240 --> 02:20:00,800 In an act of intellectual honesty, 2829 02:19:59,816 --> 02:20:02,960 [music] 2830 02:20:00,800 --> 02:20:06,960 or as many at the time called corporate 2831 02:20:02,960 --> 02:20:10,399 suicide, Jensen flew to Japan. He sat 2832 02:20:06,960 --> 02:20:14,160 across from Shy Chiro Inimiri, the CEO 2833 02:20:10,399 --> 02:20:17,120 of Sega, and told him the brutal truth. 2834 02:20:14,160 --> 02:20:19,520 Our technology is on the wrong path. If 2835 02:20:17,120 --> 02:20:22,479 we finish this project, you will produce 2836 02:20:19,520 --> 02:20:25,359 an inferior product. 2837 02:20:22,479 --> 02:20:27,760 Jensen asked for the impossible. He 2838 02:20:25,359 --> 02:20:30,240 asked Sega to terminate the contract, 2839 02:20:27,760 --> 02:20:32,720 but to pay the remaining $5 million 2840 02:20:30,240 --> 02:20:35,359 anyway. If you don't [music] pay us, 2841 02:20:32,720 --> 02:20:37,600 Jensen pleaded. Nvidia will cease to 2842 02:20:35,359 --> 02:20:40,000 exist tomorrow. 2843 02:20:37,600 --> 02:20:43,520 To the astonishment of the tech world, 2844 02:20:40,000 --> 02:20:46,080 Idlimiri son agreed. He didn't pay for a 2845 02:20:43,520 --> 02:20:48,479 working chip. He paid for Jensen's 2846 02:20:46,080 --> 02:20:51,439 integrity. 2847 02:20:48,479 --> 02:20:53,920 That $5 million was the most expensive 2848 02:20:51,439 --> 02:20:56,720 oxygen in history. 2849 02:20:53,920 --> 02:20:59,120 To make it last, Jensen had to fire half 2850 02:20:56,720 --> 02:21:00,880 of his workforce. These weren't just 2851 02:20:59,120 --> 02:21:03,359 employees. [music] They were friends who 2852 02:21:00,880 --> 02:21:05,439 had shared the Denny's dream. This 2853 02:21:03,359 --> 02:21:09,120 trauma institutionalized a permanent 2854 02:21:05,439 --> 02:21:11,920 state of emergency at Nvidia. 2855 02:21:09,120 --> 02:21:15,840 With the remaining team, Jensen funneled 2856 02:21:11,920 --> 02:21:18,720 every cent into the Reval 128. They 2857 02:21:15,840 --> 02:21:21,200 abandoned quads and embraced Microsoft's 2858 02:21:18,720 --> 02:21:26,720 triangles with a vengeance. When it 2859 02:21:21,200 --> 02:21:28,479 launched in 1997, the Revo 128 was 400% 2860 02:21:26,720 --> 02:21:30,000 faster than anything [music] else on the 2861 02:21:28,479 --> 02:21:32,827 market. 2862 02:21:30,000 --> 02:21:34,800 It was a dive catch of epic proportions. 2863 02:21:32,827 --> 02:21:39,120 [music] Nvidia was no longer just a 2864 02:21:34,800 --> 02:21:42,000 survivor. It had become a hunter. 2865 02:21:39,120 --> 02:21:45,359 But as Jensen looked at the horizon, he 2866 02:21:42,000 --> 02:21:49,640 saw 70 rivals waiting to kill him. The 2867 02:21:45,359 --> 02:21:49,640 war was only beginning. 2868 02:21:54,720 --> 02:22:00,560 The success of the Reva 128 was a dive 2869 02:21:58,080 --> 02:22:04,720 catch, but it placed Nvidia in the 2870 02:22:00,560 --> 02:22:06,960 middle of a slaughter house. By 1997, 2871 02:22:04,720 --> 02:22:10,399 there were over 70 companies fighting 2872 02:22:06,960 --> 02:22:12,399 for the soul of the 3D graphics market. 2873 02:22:10,399 --> 02:22:15,600 It was a commodity war where price 2874 02:22:12,399 --> 02:22:17,840 cutting was the only weapon for most. 2875 02:22:15,600 --> 02:22:20,080 Jensen Hang realized that if Nvidia 2876 02:22:17,840 --> 02:22:23,680 played by the industry's rules, they 2877 02:22:20,080 --> 02:22:27,040 would eventually be ground into dust. 2878 02:22:23,680 --> 02:22:28,960 He decided to break the laws of time. 2879 02:22:27,040 --> 02:22:32,319 The industry standard for developing a 2880 02:22:28,960 --> 02:22:35,520 new chip was 18 to 24 months. Following 2881 02:22:32,319 --> 02:22:37,200 the steady beat of Moore's law, Jensen 2882 02:22:35,520 --> 02:22:40,399 gathered [music] his engineers and 2883 02:22:37,200 --> 02:22:42,560 imposed a suicidal mandate. Nvidia would 2884 02:22:40,399 --> 02:22:47,280 release a brand new groundbreaking 2885 02:22:42,560 --> 02:22:49,200 architecture every 6 months. 2886 02:22:47,280 --> 02:22:50,800 It was a strategy of relentless 2887 02:22:49,200 --> 02:22:54,240 execution. 2888 02:22:50,800 --> 02:22:57,439 By the time a competitor like 3dfx or S3 2889 02:22:54,240 --> 02:23:00,479 could react to one Nvidia chip, Jensen 2890 02:22:57,439 --> 02:23:02,640 had already launched two more. This 2891 02:23:00,479 --> 02:23:04,880 forced the competition into a permanent 2892 02:23:02,640 --> 02:23:07,840 state of obsolescence. 2893 02:23:04,880 --> 02:23:09,920 To achieve this, Nvidia had to reinvent 2894 02:23:07,840 --> 02:23:11,680 its internal engineering, [music] 2895 02:23:09,920 --> 02:23:14,319 running multiple design teams in 2896 02:23:11,680 --> 02:23:16,160 parallel. A massive financial risk that 2897 02:23:14,319 --> 02:23:20,640 pushed the company to the edge of its 2898 02:23:16,160 --> 02:23:23,840 operational capacity. In 1999, the war 2899 02:23:20,640 --> 02:23:27,439 reached its climax. Nvidia released the 2900 02:23:23,840 --> 02:23:30,080 GeForce 256. 2901 02:23:27,439 --> 02:23:32,160 Jensen didn't just market it as a faster 2902 02:23:30,080 --> 02:23:36,240 card. He coined a term that would 2903 02:23:32,160 --> 02:23:39,120 redefine computing history, the GPU, 2904 02:23:36,240 --> 02:23:41,520 graphics processing unit. This wasn't 2905 02:23:39,120 --> 02:23:43,920 just [music] branding. Technically, the 2906 02:23:41,520 --> 02:23:45,840 GeForce 256 2907 02:23:43,920 --> 02:23:47,840 moved the transform and lighting 2908 02:23:45,840 --> 02:23:51,200 calculations, the most heavy 2909 02:23:47,840 --> 02:23:54,080 mathematical lifting of 3D off the CPU 2910 02:23:51,200 --> 02:23:56,640 and onto the chip itself. It was the 2911 02:23:54,080 --> 02:23:59,120 birth of a new era. 2912 02:23:56,640 --> 02:24:01,040 This performance leap was so massive 2913 02:23:59,120 --> 02:24:03,040 that Nvidia secured the prestigious 2914 02:24:01,040 --> 02:24:06,960 contract for the original Microsoft 2915 02:24:03,040 --> 02:24:09,439 Xbox, receiving a crucial $200 million 2916 02:24:06,960 --> 02:24:12,560 advance. 2917 02:24:09,439 --> 02:24:15,200 The 6-month cycle worked. By the early 2918 02:24:12,560 --> 02:24:17,840 2000s, the 70 competitors had been 2919 02:24:15,200 --> 02:24:19,520 reduced to just [music] two, Nvidia and 2920 02:24:17,840 --> 02:24:22,399 ATI. 2921 02:24:19,520 --> 02:24:24,720 In a final act of dominance, Nvidia 2922 02:24:22,399 --> 02:24:29,280 acquired the assets of its former idol 2923 02:24:24,720 --> 02:24:32,479 and arch rival 3dfx in 2000. 2924 02:24:29,280 --> 02:24:36,000 Jensen had cleared the board. He was the 2925 02:24:32,479 --> 02:24:38,640 undisputed king of gaming. But at the 2926 02:24:36,000 --> 02:24:40,399 very moment of his greatest triumph, he 2927 02:24:38,640 --> 02:24:43,120 began to look at the higherformance 2928 02:24:40,399 --> 02:24:45,520 computing market. He realized that the 2929 02:24:43,120 --> 02:24:48,399 GPU's massive parallel math could do 2930 02:24:45,520 --> 02:24:51,439 more than just draw pixels. It could 2931 02:24:48,399 --> 02:24:54,880 solve the world's most complex problems. 2932 02:24:51,439 --> 02:24:59,240 The seeds of CUDA and the $10 billion 2933 02:24:54,880 --> 02:24:59,240 gamble were being planted. 2934 02:25:04,560 --> 02:25:10,880 By 2006, Nvidia was the undisputed king 2935 02:25:08,240 --> 02:25:13,600 of [music] the gaming world. But Jensen 2936 02:25:10,880 --> 02:25:15,359 Huang was restless. He realized that the 2937 02:25:13,600 --> 02:25:17,200 same parallel [music] processing power 2938 02:25:15,359 --> 02:25:19,520 that rendered pixels for World of 2939 02:25:17,200 --> 02:25:21,359 Warcraft could be used to solve the 2940 02:25:19,520 --> 02:25:23,120 world's most complex mathematical 2941 02:25:21,359 --> 02:25:25,760 problems. 2942 02:25:23,120 --> 02:25:28,800 He launched [music] CUDA, compute 2943 02:25:25,760 --> 02:25:30,399 unified device architecture. It was a 2944 02:25:28,800 --> 02:25:32,960 declaration of war against the 2945 02:25:30,399 --> 02:25:35,840 CPUcentric [music] world. 2946 02:25:32,960 --> 02:25:38,399 The goal was simple yet insane. 2947 02:25:35,840 --> 02:25:41,520 Transform every [music] NVIDIA GPU into 2948 02:25:38,399 --> 02:25:43,040 a generalpurpose supercomput. 2949 02:25:41,520 --> 02:25:46,560 But this decision came [music] with a 2950 02:25:43,040 --> 02:25:49,600 staggering cost. Jensen mandated that 2951 02:25:46,560 --> 02:25:51,040 every single GPU Nvidia manufactured 2952 02:25:49,600 --> 02:25:54,080 from the high-end [music] workstation 2953 02:25:51,040 --> 02:25:55,840 cards to the cheapest laptop chips must 2954 02:25:54,080 --> 02:25:59,600 include the extra transistors [music] 2955 02:25:55,840 --> 02:26:03,200 and hardware logic to support CUDA. 2956 02:25:59,600 --> 02:26:05,760 Wall Street was horrified. 2957 02:26:03,200 --> 02:26:06,960 For nearly a decade, Nvidia spent 2958 02:26:05,760 --> 02:26:09,600 billions, [music] 2959 02:26:06,960 --> 02:26:12,560 estimated at over $10 billion in 2960 02:26:09,600 --> 02:26:15,760 cumulative R&D on a software platform 2961 02:26:12,560 --> 02:26:17,359 that almost no one was using. Profit 2962 02:26:15,760 --> 02:26:19,760 margins, [music] which once sat 2963 02:26:17,359 --> 02:26:22,319 comfortably high, were sacrificed at the 2964 02:26:19,760 --> 02:26:24,640 altar of this vision. 2965 02:26:22,319 --> 02:26:27,840 Analysts mocked the strategy, [music] 2966 02:26:24,640 --> 02:26:30,319 calling it the bridge to nowhere. During 2967 02:26:27,840 --> 02:26:32,800 the 2008 financial crisis, [music] 2968 02:26:30,319 --> 02:26:35,120 Nvidia's market cap plummeted and the 2969 02:26:32,800 --> 02:26:37,359 company was once again staring into the 2970 02:26:35,120 --> 02:26:39,040 abyss. 2971 02:26:37,359 --> 02:26:41,359 But Jensen wasn't just building 2972 02:26:39,040 --> 02:26:44,640 hardware. [music] He was building a 2973 02:26:41,359 --> 02:26:47,120 software moat. He sent Nvidia engineers 2974 02:26:44,640 --> 02:26:48,399 to universities around the world, 2975 02:26:47,120 --> 02:26:51,760 helping professors [music] teach 2976 02:26:48,399 --> 02:26:54,319 parallel programming using CUDA. 2977 02:26:51,760 --> 02:26:57,040 He was seeding [music] the ground. While 2978 02:26:54,319 --> 02:26:59,840 competitors like Intel and AMD focused 2979 02:26:57,040 --> 02:27:02,560 on making faster chips, Jensen [music] 2980 02:26:59,840 --> 02:27:04,880 was building an entire language. 2981 02:27:02,560 --> 02:27:07,439 By the time a developer learned CUDA, 2982 02:27:04,880 --> 02:27:08,960 they were locked in. Switching to a 2983 02:27:07,439 --> 02:27:11,200 competitor wouldn't [music] just mean 2984 02:27:08,960 --> 02:27:15,359 buying a new chip. It would mean 2985 02:27:11,200 --> 02:27:18,399 rewriting millions of lines of code. 2986 02:27:15,359 --> 02:27:21,040 Year after year, Jensen defended CUDA in 2987 02:27:18,399 --> 02:27:22,560 boardrooms and earning calls. He 2988 02:27:21,040 --> 02:27:25,200 practiced [music] what he calls 2989 02:27:22,560 --> 02:27:28,160 long-term commitment to a vision, even 2990 02:27:25,200 --> 02:27:30,000 when the data didn't yet support it. He 2991 02:27:28,160 --> 02:27:32,240 was waiting for a killer app for 2992 02:27:30,000 --> 02:27:34,240 accelerated computing. 2993 02:27:32,240 --> 02:27:35,920 He didn't know what it would be. [music] 2994 02:27:34,240 --> 02:27:38,560 But he knew that as data grew 2995 02:27:35,920 --> 02:27:41,520 exponentially, the serial processing of 2996 02:27:38,560 --> 02:27:44,000 the CPU would eventually [music] fail. 2997 02:27:41,520 --> 02:27:45,840 The silence of the Cuda winter was about 2998 02:27:44,000 --> 02:27:48,800 to be broken. 2999 02:27:45,840 --> 02:27:52,000 In a lab at the University of Toronto, a 3000 02:27:48,800 --> 02:27:54,479 PhD student named Alex Kepski was about 3001 02:27:52,000 --> 02:27:57,520 to feed a neural network called Alexet 3002 02:27:54,479 --> 02:27:59,920 into those Nvidia GPUs. 3003 02:27:57,520 --> 02:28:03,040 The big bang of artificial intelligence 3004 02:27:59,920 --> 02:28:05,439 was seconds away, and Jensen Huang was 3005 02:28:03,040 --> 02:28:09,880 the only person on Earth who had already 3006 02:28:05,439 --> 02:28:09,880 built the engine to power it. 3007 02:28:15,359 --> 02:28:19,280 The year was 2012. 3008 02:28:17,680 --> 02:28:22,240 While the world saw just another 3009 02:28:19,280 --> 02:28:24,399 academic competition, Jensen Huang saw 3010 02:28:22,240 --> 02:28:26,000 the spark that would ignite a global 3011 02:28:24,399 --> 02:28:29,280 revolution. 3012 02:28:26,000 --> 02:28:32,640 A neural network called AlexNet, powered 3013 02:28:29,280 --> 02:28:35,920 by NVIDIA GPUs, crushed the competition 3014 02:28:32,640 --> 02:28:38,479 in image recognition. It was the big 3015 02:28:35,920 --> 02:28:41,280 bang of deep learning. 3016 02:28:38,479 --> 02:28:44,399 Jensen didn't just celebrate, he pivoted 3017 02:28:41,280 --> 02:28:47,520 the entire company. He realized that the 3018 02:28:44,399 --> 02:28:49,600 $10 billion gamble on CUDA had finally 3019 02:28:47,520 --> 02:28:51,760 found its soul, artificial [music] 3020 02:28:49,600 --> 02:28:54,000 intelligence. 3021 02:28:51,760 --> 02:28:56,240 This pivot transformed Nvidia from a 3022 02:28:54,000 --> 02:28:58,399 graphics card company into the 3023 02:28:56,240 --> 02:29:01,439 foundational engine of the world's most 3024 02:28:58,399 --> 02:29:03,200 powerful data centers. 3025 02:29:01,439 --> 02:29:06,093 Jensen's vision was no longer about 3026 02:29:03,200 --> 02:29:07,920 drawing pixels. It was about generative 3027 02:29:06,093 --> 02:29:10,720 [music] AI. 3028 02:29:07,920 --> 02:29:12,240 By the time Chat GPT launched in late 3029 02:29:10,720 --> 02:29:13,920 2022, 3030 02:29:12,240 --> 02:29:16,399 Nvidia [music] didn't just have a head 3031 02:29:13,920 --> 02:29:19,720 start. They were the only ones at the 3032 02:29:16,399 --> 02:29:19,720 starting line. 3033 02:29:19,760 --> 02:29:23,840 Jensen acted with a speed that [music] 3034 02:29:21,439 --> 02:29:26,479 terrified his competitors. He didn't 3035 02:29:23,840 --> 02:29:29,280 just wait for orders. He re-engineered 3036 02:29:26,479 --> 02:29:32,240 Nvidia's entire road map. 3037 02:29:29,280 --> 02:29:34,960 In 2016, he personally delivered the 3038 02:29:32,240 --> 02:29:37,760 first Nvidia [music] DGX1, 3039 02:29:34,960 --> 02:29:40,560 the world's first AI supercomputer in a 3040 02:29:37,760 --> 02:29:43,840 box to a then small nonprofit called 3041 02:29:40,560 --> 02:29:48,200 Open AAI. He was very clear [music] 3042 02:29:43,840 --> 02:29:48,200 this will change the world. 3043 02:29:48,880 --> 02:29:52,240 Technically, this period was about 3044 02:29:50,640 --> 02:29:54,640 specialization. 3045 02:29:52,240 --> 02:29:57,184 Nvidia began adding tensor cores to its 3046 02:29:54,640 --> 02:29:57,200 chips. These weren't for graphics. 3047 02:29:57,184 --> 02:29:58,880 >> [music] 3048 02:29:57,200 --> 02:30:01,040 >> They were designed specifically for the 3049 02:29:58,880 --> 02:30:02,800 deep learning math that powers neural 3050 02:30:01,040 --> 02:30:04,399 networks. 3051 02:30:02,800 --> 02:30:07,040 Nvidia was no longer just making [music] 3052 02:30:04,399 --> 02:30:09,439 a faster graphics card. It was building 3053 02:30:07,040 --> 02:30:10,880 a specialized brain. 3054 02:30:09,439 --> 02:30:13,439 By 2017, [music] 3055 02:30:10,880 --> 02:30:15,760 the momentum was unstoppable. 3056 02:30:13,439 --> 02:30:17,920 Every major tech giant was building AI 3057 02:30:15,760 --> 02:30:19,600 labs and they all had one thing in 3058 02:30:17,920 --> 02:30:21,840 common. They were built on [music] 3059 02:30:19,600 --> 02:30:24,080 Nvidia's stack. 3060 02:30:21,840 --> 02:30:26,640 This was the era when the software mode 3061 02:30:24,080 --> 02:30:27,840 became a fortress. Thousands of 3062 02:30:26,640 --> 02:30:31,359 researchers [music] were now writing 3063 02:30:27,840 --> 02:30:33,200 their doctoral thesis on CUDA. 3064 02:30:31,359 --> 02:30:35,174 If a competitor wanted to challenge 3065 02:30:33,200 --> 02:30:37,600 Nvidia, they wouldn't just need a 3066 02:30:35,174 --> 02:30:40,240 [music] better chip. They would have to 3067 02:30:37,600 --> 02:30:43,680 convince the world's brightest minds to 3068 02:30:40,240 --> 02:30:46,399 forget everything they had learned. 3069 02:30:43,680 --> 02:30:49,120 But as the AI revolution took hold, an 3070 02:30:46,399 --> 02:30:51,920 unexpected shadow emerged. [music] A new 3071 02:30:49,120 --> 02:30:54,720 craze called Bitcoin and Ethereum began 3072 02:30:51,920 --> 02:30:57,840 to consume Nvidia's supply. 3073 02:30:54,720 --> 02:31:01,040 To the world, Nvidia looked invincible, 3074 02:30:57,840 --> 02:31:03,200 but internally Jensen [music] was wary. 3075 02:31:01,040 --> 02:31:04,720 Jensen knew that every bubble eventually 3076 02:31:03,200 --> 02:31:07,120 bursts. 3077 02:31:04,720 --> 02:31:09,439 This period of explosive accidental 3078 02:31:07,120 --> 02:31:12,560 growth from crypto miners was creating a 3079 02:31:09,439 --> 02:31:14,800 shadow over the company's true mission, 3080 02:31:12,560 --> 02:31:17,680 setting the stage for a highstakes legal 3081 02:31:14,800 --> 02:31:19,120 battle over corporate transparency and a 3082 02:31:17,680 --> 02:31:23,560 financial storm that would test [music] 3083 02:31:19,120 --> 02:31:23,560 the very foundations of his leadership. 3084 02:31:27,280 --> 02:31:32,319 In 2018, Nvidia was [music] riding a 3085 02:31:30,240 --> 02:31:35,520 wave that looked like a miracle, but 3086 02:31:32,319 --> 02:31:37,520 felt like a mirage. The explosion of 3087 02:31:35,520 --> 02:31:41,120 cryptocurrency mining had created an 3088 02:31:37,520 --> 02:31:43,760 insatiable hunger for GeForce cards. 3089 02:31:41,120 --> 02:31:46,080 To the outside world, Nvidia's revenue 3090 02:31:43,760 --> 02:31:48,479 was reaching historic [music] heights. 3091 02:31:46,080 --> 02:31:50,960 However, beneath the surface, a 3092 02:31:48,479 --> 02:31:52,880 dangerous ambiguity was growing. [music] 3093 02:31:50,960 --> 02:31:55,085 Jensen Huang insisted that the growth 3094 02:31:52,880 --> 02:31:56,800 was driven by a gaming renaissance, 3095 02:31:55,085 --> 02:32:00,960 [music] but the reality was more 3096 02:31:56,800 --> 02:32:02,560 volatile. The mirage evaporated in late 3097 02:32:00,960 --> 02:32:05,359 2018. 3098 02:32:02,560 --> 02:32:08,880 The crypto winter arrived and the demand 3099 02:32:05,359 --> 02:32:10,800 for mining chips vanished overnight. 3100 02:32:08,880 --> 02:32:12,770 Nvidia was left with a massive surplus 3101 02:32:10,800 --> 02:32:15,359 of inventory and the market's reaction 3102 02:32:12,770 --> 02:32:20,000 [music] was brutal. The company's stock 3103 02:32:15,359 --> 02:32:22,560 price plummeted by 28% in a single day. 3104 02:32:20,000 --> 02:32:24,000 The invincible architect of AI was 3105 02:32:22,560 --> 02:32:26,560 suddenly facing a crisis of [music] 3106 02:32:24,000 --> 02:32:28,319 credibility. 3107 02:32:26,560 --> 02:32:30,000 This financial collapse ignited a 3108 02:32:28,319 --> 02:32:31,920 highstakes legal battle that would 3109 02:32:30,000 --> 02:32:33,920 eventually reach the steps of the US 3110 02:32:31,920 --> 02:32:36,240 Supreme Court. 3111 02:32:33,920 --> 02:32:38,720 A group of institutional investors filed 3112 02:32:36,240 --> 02:32:40,479 a class action lawsuit alleging that 3113 02:32:38,720 --> 02:32:43,280 Jensen Hang had deliberately [music] 3114 02:32:40,479 --> 02:32:46,880 misled the market. The core of the case 3115 02:32:43,280 --> 02:32:50,800 rested on a single devastating word, 3116 02:32:46,880 --> 02:32:53,280 ci. The intent [music] to deceive. 3117 02:32:50,800 --> 02:32:54,800 The accusation was sharp. Investors 3118 02:32:53,280 --> 02:32:57,040 claimed [music] that internal Nvidia 3119 02:32:54,800 --> 02:32:59,760 reports clearly showed over a billion 3120 02:32:57,040 --> 02:33:01,280 dollars in revenue attributed to gamers 3121 02:32:59,760 --> 02:33:02,800 was actually coming from crypto [music] 3122 02:33:01,280 --> 02:33:05,040 miners. 3123 02:33:02,800 --> 02:33:07,280 Jensen fought back, defending his 3124 02:33:05,040 --> 02:33:09,359 intellectual honesty and arguing that 3125 02:33:07,280 --> 02:33:10,319 the expert opinions used against him 3126 02:33:09,359 --> 02:33:12,399 were nothing [music] more than 3127 02:33:10,319 --> 02:33:14,800 speculation. 3128 02:33:12,399 --> 02:33:17,120 This battle known as petition number 3129 02:33:14,800 --> 02:33:19,200 23-970 3130 02:33:17,120 --> 02:33:21,920 became a landmark moment for Silicon 3131 02:33:19,200 --> 02:33:23,920 Valley, questioning how much a CEO must 3132 02:33:21,920 --> 02:33:25,520 disclose when their technology 3133 02:33:23,920 --> 02:33:28,960 accidentally [music] conquers a market 3134 02:33:25,520 --> 02:33:31,359 they didn't intend to lead. 3135 02:33:28,960 --> 02:33:33,200 While lawyers argued in Washington, 3136 02:33:31,359 --> 02:33:35,956 Jensen was already looking past the 3137 02:33:33,200 --> 02:33:37,680 wreckage. He didn't let the legal storm 3138 02:33:35,956 --> 02:33:40,479 [music] or the inventory crisis slowed 3139 02:33:37,680 --> 02:33:42,506 down his ultimate plan. He doubled down 3140 02:33:40,479 --> 02:33:43,040 on the data center, acquiring Melanox 3141 02:33:42,506 --> 02:33:45,680 [music] 3142 02:33:43,040 --> 02:33:47,840 for $7 billion to control the highways 3143 02:33:45,680 --> 02:33:49,120 between his chips. 3144 02:33:47,840 --> 02:33:51,280 He was preparing [music] for a world 3145 02:33:49,120 --> 02:33:53,920 where AI wouldn't just be a research 3146 02:33:51,280 --> 02:33:56,080 project, but the operating system of the 3147 02:33:53,920 --> 02:33:58,800 entire planet. 3148 02:33:56,080 --> 02:34:01,280 The storm of 2018 had been a warning. 3149 02:33:58,800 --> 02:34:05,000 The era of generative AI was about to 3150 02:34:01,280 --> 02:34:05,000 provide [music] the answer. 3151 02:34:08,880 --> 02:34:13,680 By 2022, 3152 02:34:10,800 --> 02:34:15,920 the world had changed. The launch of 3153 02:34:13,680 --> 02:34:18,800 Chat GPT signaled the arrival of the 3154 02:34:15,920 --> 02:34:22,080 generative AI era, and Nvidia was the 3155 02:34:18,800 --> 02:34:24,160 only company prepared to power it. 3156 02:34:22,080 --> 02:34:27,120 But as Jensen Huang stood on the brink 3157 02:34:24,160 --> 02:34:30,319 of total market dominance, a new wall 3158 02:34:27,120 --> 02:34:32,800 was built, not by a competitor, but by 3159 02:34:30,319 --> 02:34:34,720 the [music] US government. Washington 3160 02:34:32,800 --> 02:34:38,000 imposed strict export controls on 3161 02:34:34,720 --> 02:34:40,960 high-end AI chips. For Nvidia, the 3162 02:34:38,000 --> 02:34:42,880 stakes [music] were astronomical. 3163 02:34:40,960 --> 02:34:44,880 According to the geographical revenue 3164 02:34:42,880 --> 02:34:48,319 data, [music] China accounted for 3165 02:34:44,880 --> 02:34:50,960 approximately 20% to 25% of the 3166 02:34:48,319 --> 02:34:52,800 company's total business. 3167 02:34:50,960 --> 02:34:55,200 Overnight, [music] Jensen had to 3168 02:34:52,800 --> 02:34:57,439 navigate a geopolitical minefield, 3169 02:34:55,200 --> 02:34:58,720 redesigning chips specifically to comply 3170 02:34:57,439 --> 02:35:00,640 with regulations [music] 3171 02:34:58,720 --> 02:35:03,920 while trying to keep his most important 3172 02:35:00,640 --> 02:35:06,160 market from slipping away. 3173 02:35:03,920 --> 02:35:08,160 Jensen's answer to the geopolitical and 3174 02:35:06,160 --> 02:35:12,080 technical pressure was the Blackwall 3175 02:35:08,160 --> 02:35:15,200 architecture. If the H100 was a spark, 3176 02:35:12,080 --> 02:35:18,137 Blackwell was a sun. Packing an 3177 02:35:15,200 --> 02:35:20,240 incredible 208 billion transistors, 3178 02:35:18,137 --> 02:35:21,920 [music] it delivered up to 30 times the 3179 02:35:20,240 --> 02:35:24,319 performance of its predecessor for 3180 02:35:21,920 --> 02:35:26,240 certain AI tasks. 3181 02:35:24,319 --> 02:35:29,040 But Blackwell represented a deeper 3182 02:35:26,240 --> 02:35:32,000 strategic shift. Nvidia was no longer 3183 02:35:29,040 --> 02:35:34,880 just [music] a chipmaker. 3184 02:35:32,000 --> 02:35:36,479 Jensen was now building entire AI 3185 02:35:34,880 --> 02:35:38,442 factories. 3186 02:35:36,479 --> 02:35:40,560 By integrating Melanox networking 3187 02:35:38,442 --> 02:35:42,640 [music] technology, he controlled the 3188 02:35:40,560 --> 02:35:44,240 highways that allowed thousands of chips 3189 02:35:42,640 --> 02:35:47,600 to talk to each other as [music] if they 3190 02:35:44,240 --> 02:35:49,920 were a single giant brain. 3191 02:35:47,600 --> 02:35:51,760 This system on a cluster approach meant 3192 02:35:49,920 --> 02:35:54,240 that even if a competitor produced a 3193 02:35:51,760 --> 02:35:55,920 faster individual chip, they couldn't 3194 02:35:54,240 --> 02:35:58,960 compete with the sheer efficiency of the 3195 02:35:55,920 --> 02:36:00,479 Nvidia ecosystem. 3196 02:35:58,960 --> 02:36:04,479 The financial results [music] were 3197 02:36:00,479 --> 02:36:07,263 staggering. By early 2024, Nvidia's data 3198 02:36:04,479 --> 02:36:10,640 center revenue had surged to over 47 3199 02:36:07,263 --> 02:36:13,760 [music] billion, a 217% 3200 02:36:10,640 --> 02:36:16,319 increase in a single year. The company 3201 02:36:13,760 --> 02:36:18,880 was [music] operating with 78.4% 3202 02:36:16,319 --> 02:36:21,359 gross margins, profit levels usually 3203 02:36:18,880 --> 02:36:23,840 reserved for software giants, not 3204 02:36:21,359 --> 02:36:27,600 hardware manufacturers. 3205 02:36:23,840 --> 02:36:30,880 On June 18th, 2024, Nvidia became the 3206 02:36:27,600 --> 02:36:33,760 most valuable company on the planet. 3207 02:36:30,880 --> 02:36:36,960 Yet, even as he stood at the summit, 3208 02:36:33,760 --> 02:36:38,160 Jensen refused to relax. He looked the 3209 02:36:36,960 --> 02:36:40,800 60-year history of [music] 3210 02:36:38,160 --> 02:36:44,240 semiconductors, the rise and fall of 3211 02:36:40,800 --> 02:36:46,399 Intel, the cycles of Samsung and TI, and 3212 02:36:44,240 --> 02:36:48,960 he knew that being on top was the most 3213 02:36:46,399 --> 02:36:52,160 dangerous place to be. His next 3214 02:36:48,960 --> 02:36:54,640 challenge wouldn't just be about chips. 3215 02:36:52,160 --> 02:36:57,640 It would be about giving AI a physical 3216 02:36:54,640 --> 02:36:57,640 body. 3217 02:37:01,439 --> 02:37:06,640 In 2024, Jensen Huang had already 3218 02:37:04,399 --> 02:37:08,960 conquered the digital world, but his 3219 02:37:06,640 --> 02:37:11,680 eyes were fixed on a new frontier, the 3220 02:37:08,960 --> 02:37:14,479 physical one. He declared that the next 3221 02:37:11,680 --> 02:37:16,319 wave of AI would be physical AI. 3222 02:37:14,479 --> 02:37:18,800 Intelligence that doesn't just process 3223 02:37:16,319 --> 02:37:21,200 text [music] or images, but understands 3224 02:37:18,800 --> 02:37:23,520 the laws of physics. 3225 02:37:21,200 --> 02:37:26,080 Everything that moves from autonomous 3226 02:37:23,520 --> 02:37:28,080 cars [music] to humanoid robots would 3227 02:37:26,080 --> 02:37:29,680 eventually be powered by an Nvidia 3228 02:37:28,080 --> 02:37:32,080 brain. 3229 02:37:29,680 --> 02:37:35,760 This identifies it as the third pillar 3230 02:37:32,080 --> 02:37:38,309 of Nvidia's future. To win this race, 3231 02:37:35,760 --> 02:37:40,880 Jensen isn't just building chips. 3232 02:37:38,309 --> 02:37:43,040 [music] He is building the omniverse. 3233 02:37:40,880 --> 02:37:45,120 This is a digital world where robots are 3234 02:37:43,040 --> 02:37:46,319 trained millions of times in a virtual 3235 02:37:45,120 --> 02:37:48,319 simulation [music] 3236 02:37:46,319 --> 02:37:50,160 before they ever step into a real 3237 02:37:48,319 --> 02:37:52,880 factory. 3238 02:37:50,160 --> 02:37:54,960 By the time a robot starts its job, it 3239 02:37:52,880 --> 02:37:56,479 has already lived a thousand lifetimes 3240 02:37:54,960 --> 02:37:59,120 of experience. [music] 3241 02:37:56,479 --> 02:38:01,920 Jensen's strategy is a total vertical 3242 02:37:59,120 --> 02:38:05,120 integration. He is transforming Nvidia 3243 02:38:01,920 --> 02:38:07,280 into a provider of AI factories. 3244 02:38:05,120 --> 02:38:09,760 He believes that in the future, every 3245 02:38:07,280 --> 02:38:12,000 company will have two factories, one 3246 02:38:09,760 --> 02:38:13,679 that produces physical goods and a 3247 02:38:12,000 --> 02:38:15,040 digital one that produces intelligence. 3248 02:38:13,679 --> 02:38:17,200 [music] 3249 02:38:15,040 --> 02:38:19,280 With the Melanox networking, high-speed 3250 02:38:17,200 --> 02:38:21,760 highways, and the CUDA software 3251 02:38:19,280 --> 02:38:23,504 fortress, Jensen has ensured that the 3252 02:38:21,760 --> 02:38:25,840 entire infrastructure of this new 3253 02:38:23,504 --> 02:38:29,200 [music] industrial revolution runs on 3254 02:38:25,840 --> 02:38:31,520 Nvidia. When asked about his legacy, 3255 02:38:29,200 --> 02:38:34,560 Jensen doesn't talk about stock prices 3256 02:38:31,520 --> 02:38:36,960 or trillions of dollars. He talks about 3257 02:38:34,560 --> 02:38:38,560 material sciences [music] and scientific 3258 02:38:36,960 --> 02:38:40,640 discovery. 3259 02:38:38,560 --> 02:38:42,880 He believes AI will give humans 3260 02:38:40,640 --> 02:38:45,439 superpowers, helping us solve [music] 3261 02:38:42,880 --> 02:38:47,680 climate change, cure diseases, and 3262 02:38:45,439 --> 02:38:50,240 handle the dangerous and mundane tasks 3263 02:38:47,680 --> 02:38:54,280 so we can focus on what truly makes us 3264 02:38:50,240 --> 02:38:54,280 human, curiosity. 3265 02:38:56,880 --> 02:39:01,200 By 2025, 3266 02:38:58,800 --> 02:39:02,960 the world had entered a state of compute 3267 02:39:01,200 --> 02:39:06,160 geopolitics. 3268 02:39:02,960 --> 02:39:08,720 Nvidia was no longer just a company. It 3269 02:39:06,160 --> 02:39:11,840 had become a strategic resource similar 3270 02:39:08,720 --> 02:39:15,439 to oil or grain. The launch of the 3271 02:39:11,840 --> 02:39:18,240 Blackwell B200 hadn't just met demand. 3272 02:39:15,439 --> 02:39:21,840 It had ignited a global scramble. 3273 02:39:18,240 --> 02:39:24,420 Nations like Japan, France, and the UAE 3274 02:39:21,840 --> 02:39:26,000 began building sovereign AI clouds. 3275 02:39:24,420 --> 02:39:27,680 [music] Realizing that depending on a 3276 02:39:26,000 --> 02:39:30,000 few Silicon Valley giants for 3277 02:39:27,680 --> 02:39:31,600 intelligence was a national security 3278 02:39:30,000 --> 02:39:34,960 risk. 3279 02:39:31,600 --> 02:39:38,720 But as 2025 progressed, a new whisper 3280 02:39:34,960 --> 02:39:41,680 began to haunt the industry. The wall. 3281 02:39:38,720 --> 02:39:44,479 For years, AI progress relied on scaling 3282 02:39:41,680 --> 02:39:46,800 laws. The idea that more data and more 3283 02:39:44,479 --> 02:39:50,720 GPUs would inevitably lead to more 3284 02:39:46,800 --> 02:39:53,439 intelligence. However, in 2026, the 3285 02:39:50,720 --> 02:39:56,000 returns are starting to diminish. Data 3286 02:39:53,439 --> 02:39:58,000 centers are becoming so massive, they 3287 02:39:56,000 --> 02:40:00,399 require their own dedicated nuclear 3288 02:39:58,000 --> 02:40:02,410 power plants. and the lowhanging fruit 3289 02:40:00,399 --> 02:40:03,920 of internet data has been exhausted. 3290 02:40:02,410 --> 02:40:06,160 [music] 3291 02:40:03,920 --> 02:40:08,800 Jensen's response to the wall is 3292 02:40:06,160 --> 02:40:10,880 typically defiant. He pivoted the 3293 02:40:08,800 --> 02:40:14,800 industry towards synthetic data and 3294 02:40:10,880 --> 02:40:16,820 reasoning models. In 2026, Nvidia's 3295 02:40:14,800 --> 02:40:21,040 focus has shifted from simply training 3296 02:40:16,820 --> 02:40:23,120 [music] AI to inference at scale. The 3297 02:40:21,040 --> 02:40:25,920 goal is no longer just to build a model 3298 02:40:23,120 --> 02:40:27,359 that knows everything, but to build a 3299 02:40:25,920 --> 02:40:29,920 system that thinks [music] through a 3300 02:40:27,359 --> 02:40:32,399 problem for days, if necessary, using 3301 02:40:29,920 --> 02:40:34,720 massive clusters of GPUs to reach a 3302 02:40:32,399 --> 02:40:38,000 breakthrough. 3303 02:40:34,720 --> 02:40:41,200 The competition in 2026 has never been 3304 02:40:38,000 --> 02:40:43,680 fiercer. Nvidia's biggest customers, 3305 02:40:41,200 --> 02:40:45,840 Amazon, Google, and Microsoft, have 3306 02:40:43,680 --> 02:40:47,760 become its most dangerous rivals, 3307 02:40:45,840 --> 02:40:52,240 pouring billions into their own custom 3308 02:40:47,760 --> 02:40:55,120 AI chips to escape the NVIDIA tax. Yet, 3309 02:40:52,240 --> 02:40:57,520 the software mode remains unreached. 3310 02:40:55,120 --> 02:40:59,840 While others build chips, Jensen is 3311 02:40:57,520 --> 02:41:02,160 building the entire ecosystem, the 3312 02:40:59,840 --> 02:41:03,840 networking, the libraries, and [music] 3313 02:41:02,160 --> 02:41:06,720 the pre-trained models that make a 3314 02:41:03,840 --> 02:41:10,000 competitor's hardware feel like a relic 3315 02:41:06,720 --> 02:41:10,531 before it even leaves the factory. 3316 02:41:10,000 --> 02:41:10,640 In this 3317 02:41:10,531 --> 02:41:13,040 >> [music] 3318 02:41:10,640 --> 02:41:15,920 >> era, Jensen Hang has become one of the 3319 02:41:13,040 --> 02:41:17,840 world's most influential diplomat. He 3320 02:41:15,920 --> 02:41:20,240 navigates a world where the power grid 3321 02:41:17,840 --> 02:41:22,000 is the new bottleneck and where a single 3322 02:41:20,240 --> 02:41:24,960 shipment of chips can determine the 3323 02:41:22,000 --> 02:41:27,760 economic future of a country. 3324 02:41:24,960 --> 02:41:30,960 The trillion dollar question of 2026 is 3325 02:41:27,760 --> 02:41:33,040 no longer if AI will change the world, 3326 02:41:30,960 --> 02:41:36,280 but who will own the infrastructure of 3327 02:41:33,040 --> 02:41:36,280 that change. 3328 02:41:39,680 --> 02:41:44,160 The story of Nvidia is often told as a 3329 02:41:42,080 --> 02:41:47,040 series of lucky breaks or inevitable 3330 02:41:44,160 --> 02:41:49,439 triumphs. But as we look at the empire 3331 02:41:47,040 --> 02:41:52,160 Jensen [music] Huang has built, the 3332 02:41:49,439 --> 02:41:54,479 reality is far more deliberate and far 3333 02:41:52,160 --> 02:41:56,160 more precarious. 3334 02:41:54,479 --> 02:41:58,000 In 2026, [music] 3335 02:41:56,160 --> 02:41:59,920 the company stands at the center of the 3336 02:41:58,000 --> 02:42:01,439 greatest industrial shift in human 3337 02:41:59,920 --> 02:42:04,319 history. 3338 02:42:01,439 --> 02:42:06,960 Yet for Jensen, the valuation of three, 3339 02:42:04,319 --> 02:42:09,600 four, or 5 trillion is a lagging 3340 02:42:06,960 --> 02:42:11,520 indicator. The true metric is [music] 3341 02:42:09,600 --> 02:42:13,439 the oxygen. 3342 02:42:11,520 --> 02:42:15,359 Throughout his journey, from the dish 3343 02:42:13,439 --> 02:42:17,997 pits of Denny's to the halls of the 3344 02:42:15,359 --> 02:42:19,680 Supreme Court, Jensen has maintained a 3345 02:42:17,997 --> 02:42:21,359 [music] philosophy of intellectual 3346 02:42:19,680 --> 02:42:23,920 honesty. 3347 02:42:21,359 --> 02:42:26,720 He admits when the technology is wrong. 3348 02:42:23,920 --> 02:42:28,720 He pivots when the market shifts. And he 3349 02:42:26,720 --> 02:42:31,200 invests billions when the world calls 3350 02:42:28,720 --> 02:42:32,960 him a fall. He [music] has turned a 3351 02:42:31,200 --> 02:42:35,600 semiconductor company into a 3352 02:42:32,960 --> 02:42:38,720 geopolitical superpower, a software 3353 02:42:35,600 --> 02:42:41,920 fortress, and the primary architect of a 3354 02:42:38,720 --> 02:42:44,560 new form of life. [music] Critics ask if 3355 02:42:41,920 --> 02:42:46,399 Nvidia is a bubble waiting to burst, or 3356 02:42:44,560 --> 02:42:49,200 if the scaling laws of AI will 3357 02:42:46,399 --> 02:42:50,720 eventually hit a dead end. But Jensen 3358 02:42:49,200 --> 02:42:53,840 doesn't operate on [music] the timeline 3359 02:42:50,720 --> 02:42:56,880 of a stock market cycle. He operates on 3360 02:42:53,840 --> 02:42:59,600 the timeline of human evolution. 3361 02:42:56,880 --> 02:43:01,120 He isn't just selling chips. He is 3362 02:42:59,600 --> 02:43:03,760 selling the marginal cost of 3363 02:43:01,120 --> 02:43:06,479 intelligence, making the most valuable 3364 02:43:03,760 --> 02:43:08,433 resource in the universe so abundant 3365 02:43:06,479 --> 02:43:09,120 that it changes the very definition 3366 02:43:08,433 --> 02:43:11,920 [music] 3367 02:43:09,120 --> 02:43:14,080 of what is possible. 3368 02:43:11,920 --> 02:43:16,000 Jensen often says that he wakes up every 3369 02:43:14,080 --> 02:43:17,520 morning with the same feeling he had in 3370 02:43:16,000 --> 02:43:19,120 1993. 3371 02:43:17,520 --> 02:43:21,280 the feeling that [music] the company is 3372 02:43:19,120 --> 02:43:23,680 going out of business. 3373 02:43:21,280 --> 02:43:25,439 It is this productive paranoia that 3374 02:43:23,680 --> 02:43:28,800 prevents the cyclical trap [music] that 3375 02:43:25,439 --> 02:43:31,439 claim the giants of the past. He doesn't 3376 02:43:28,800 --> 02:43:32,960 want to be the king of a legacy. He 3377 02:43:31,439 --> 02:43:35,840 wants to be the architect of [music] a 3378 02:43:32,960 --> 02:43:38,720 future that hasn't even been imagined 3379 02:43:35,840 --> 02:43:42,160 yet. 3380 02:43:38,720 --> 02:43:44,720 Run, don't walk. Either you are running 3381 02:43:42,160 --> 02:43:47,359 for food or you are running from being 3382 02:43:44,720 --> 02:43:53,560 food. In the era of the digital [music] 3383 02:43:47,359 --> 02:43:53,560 brain, the race has only just begun. 3384 02:45:19,840 --> 02:45:24,720 At the edge of the world, in a country 3385 02:45:22,080 --> 02:45:27,200 with more sheep than people, one of the 3386 02:45:24,720 --> 02:45:30,399 most powerful men in Silicon Valley 3387 02:45:27,200 --> 02:45:34,479 built an escape hatch. Not a vacation 3388 02:45:30,399 --> 02:45:37,279 home, not a tax shelter, a contingency 3389 02:45:34,479 --> 02:45:40,880 plan. 3390 02:45:37,279 --> 02:45:43,120 In 2011, a billionaire quietly secured 3391 02:45:40,880 --> 02:45:44,560 citizenship in New Zealand after 3392 02:45:43,120 --> 02:45:47,520 spending just [music] days in the 3393 02:45:44,560 --> 02:45:50,240 country. A legal backdoor, a 3394 02:45:47,520 --> 02:45:52,160 geopolitical lifeboat 3395 02:45:50,240 --> 02:45:55,120 deep in the rugged terrain of New 3396 02:45:52,160 --> 02:45:59,120 Zealand's South Island, Peter Teal owns 3397 02:45:55,120 --> 02:46:02,720 a vast private estate, remote, secluded, 3398 02:45:59,120 --> 02:46:04,630 and far from the centers of power. 3399 02:46:02,720 --> 02:46:07,520 While most billionaires buy yachts 3400 02:46:04,630 --> 02:46:10,479 [music] or private islands feel secured 3401 02:46:07,520 --> 02:46:12,319 something more strategic, New Zealand 3402 02:46:10,479 --> 02:46:14,479 citizenship 3403 02:46:12,319 --> 02:46:17,920 and a vast estate in one of the [music] 3404 02:46:14,479 --> 02:46:20,240 most remote democracies on earth. The 3405 02:46:17,920 --> 02:46:22,319 purchase price for this geopolitical 3406 02:46:20,240 --> 02:46:25,760 insurance policy. 3407 02:46:22,319 --> 02:46:28,479 In 2011, Theel obtained New Zealand 3408 02:46:25,760 --> 02:46:30,800 citizenship after spending just 12 days 3409 02:46:28,479 --> 02:46:33,840 in the country over the previous 2 3410 02:46:30,800 --> 02:46:37,479 years. a process that normally requires 3411 02:46:33,840 --> 02:46:37,479 years of residency. 3412 02:46:37,600 --> 02:46:42,800 The investment that secured this 3413 02:46:39,439 --> 02:46:44,960 exceptional pathway, approximately $7 3414 02:46:42,800 --> 02:46:47,840 million in local assets [music] and 3415 02:46:44,960 --> 02:46:51,040 business investments. 3416 02:46:47,840 --> 02:46:54,880 The centerpiece, a 477 3417 02:46:51,040 --> 02:46:59,120 acre estate near Lake Wanaka, purchased 3418 02:46:54,880 --> 02:47:01,760 for 13.5 million New Zealand, about $10 3419 02:46:59,120 --> 02:47:04,160 million. 3420 02:47:01,760 --> 02:47:07,680 When New Zealand media exposed the deal 3421 02:47:04,160 --> 02:47:08,800 in 2017, it sparked [music] a national 3422 02:47:07,680 --> 02:47:10,479 scandal. 3423 02:47:08,800 --> 02:47:12,080 >> Hi Benedict, nice to talk to you again. 3424 02:47:10,479 --> 02:47:14,000 So when we last spoke, you told us that 3425 02:47:12,080 --> 02:47:16,640 Peter Teal was granted citizenship after 3426 02:47:14,000 --> 02:47:19,760 having only visited New Zealand four 3427 02:47:16,640 --> 02:47:22,000 times for an unknown number of days 3428 02:47:19,760 --> 02:47:24,000 because the documents had that 3429 02:47:22,000 --> 02:47:26,319 information redacted. Right. 3430 02:47:24,000 --> 02:47:29,040 >> Politicians called it citizenship for 3431 02:47:26,319 --> 02:47:31,040 sale. Opposition leaders demanded 3432 02:47:29,040 --> 02:47:33,279 investigations, 3433 02:47:31,040 --> 02:47:36,479 but Theel had already achieved his 3434 02:47:33,279 --> 02:47:38,240 objective, a legal escape hatch in the 3435 02:47:36,479 --> 02:47:39,920 world's most politically stable 3436 02:47:38,240 --> 02:47:42,800 democracy, [music] 3437 02:47:39,920 --> 02:47:46,560 a geopolitical insurance policy that 3438 02:47:42,800 --> 02:47:48,560 money can buy. 3439 02:47:46,560 --> 02:47:50,800 Why would a man who helped [music] build 3440 02:47:48,560 --> 02:47:53,840 the digital future prepare for the 3441 02:47:50,800 --> 02:47:56,880 collapse of the physical one? What does 3442 02:47:53,840 --> 02:48:00,720 he [music] see that others don't? Yes, 3443 02:47:56,880 --> 02:48:03,120 it's the uh 1 Thessalonians 5:3, the uh 3444 02:48:00,720 --> 02:48:06,640 the the slogan of the Antichrist is 3445 02:48:03,120 --> 02:48:08,640 peace and safety. And so, which is 3446 02:48:06,640 --> 02:48:10,479 nothing wrong with peace and safety, but 3447 02:48:08,640 --> 02:48:12,356 uh you have to sort of imagine that it 3448 02:48:10,479 --> 02:48:13,920 resonates very differently in a world 3449 02:48:12,356 --> 02:48:15,359 [music] where the stakes are so 3450 02:48:13,920 --> 02:48:16,720 absolute, where the stakes are so 3451 02:48:15,359 --> 02:48:21,120 extreme, where the you know the 3452 02:48:16,720 --> 02:48:23,359 alternative to peace and safety is, you 3453 02:48:21,120 --> 02:48:25,120 know, Armageddon and the destruction of 3454 02:48:23,359 --> 02:48:27,120 all things. 3455 02:48:25,120 --> 02:48:30,319 He is one of the most polarizing [music] 3456 02:48:27,120 --> 02:48:32,720 figures in Silicon Valley. To some, a 3457 02:48:30,319 --> 02:48:36,240 visionary genius who saw the future 3458 02:48:32,720 --> 02:48:38,240 early. To others, the shadow financier 3459 02:48:36,240 --> 02:48:40,080 of movements and candidates who 3460 02:48:38,240 --> 02:48:41,680 challenged [music] liberal democratic 3461 02:48:40,080 --> 02:48:45,600 norms. 3462 02:48:41,680 --> 02:48:48,080 This is not fear. This is strategy. 3463 02:48:45,600 --> 02:48:51,840 For decades, Peter Theel has made the 3464 02:48:48,080 --> 02:48:54,800 same bet over and over again. Bet 3465 02:48:51,840 --> 02:48:55,600 against consensus. bet against the 3466 02:48:54,800 --> 02:48:59,439 crowd, [music] 3467 02:48:55,600 --> 02:49:02,000 bet against the system itself. 3468 02:48:59,439 --> 02:49:04,560 To understand why he built a fortress at 3469 02:49:02,000 --> 02:49:07,920 the end of the earth, we have to go back 3470 02:49:04,560 --> 02:49:09,997 to a childhood of constant displacement. 3471 02:49:07,920 --> 02:49:12,399 To a chessboard where consensus meant 3472 02:49:09,997 --> 02:49:15,120 [music] nothing, to a company that tried 3473 02:49:12,399 --> 02:49:19,000 to replace money and another that 3474 02:49:15,120 --> 02:49:19,000 learned to see [music] everything. 3475 02:49:19,200 --> 02:49:23,840 But the estate is more than a [music] 3476 02:49:21,200 --> 02:49:27,840 luxury retreat. It is a fortress 3477 02:49:23,840 --> 02:49:30,560 designed for civilizational uncertainty. 3478 02:49:27,840 --> 02:49:33,120 Off-grid power systems, advanced 3479 02:49:30,560 --> 02:49:34,800 security infrastructure, multiple 3480 02:49:33,120 --> 02:49:38,080 evacuation routes [music] through the 3481 02:49:34,800 --> 02:49:40,319 mountains. Not built for comfort, built 3482 02:49:38,080 --> 02:49:42,960 for continuity. 3483 02:49:40,319 --> 02:49:44,960 While the world debates progress, Peter 3484 02:49:42,960 --> 02:49:46,640 Theel is preparing for a different 3485 02:49:44,960 --> 02:49:49,359 possibility. 3486 02:49:46,640 --> 02:49:52,840 Not how to build the future, how to 3487 02:49:49,359 --> 02:49:52,840 survive it. 3488 02:49:54,160 --> 02:50:00,000 The architect of dissident 3489 02:49:57,760 --> 02:50:03,520 total estimated value of [music] Theo's 3490 02:50:00,000 --> 02:50:05,279 contingency infrastructure 20 to $30 3491 02:50:03,520 --> 02:50:08,640 million. 3492 02:50:05,279 --> 02:50:10,880 Not for lifestyle, not for prestige, but 3493 02:50:08,640 --> 02:50:13,200 for the day the system he helped build 3494 02:50:10,880 --> 02:50:14,843 no longer holds. 3495 02:50:13,200 --> 02:50:17,760 He didn't build this because he panics 3496 02:50:14,843 --> 02:50:19,840 [music] easily. He built it because he 3497 02:50:17,760 --> 02:50:22,800 has always believed that the crowd is 3498 02:50:19,840 --> 02:50:26,000 wrong and the future belongs to those 3499 02:50:22,800 --> 02:50:29,120 willing to stand apart from it. Every 3500 02:50:26,000 --> 02:50:31,359 fortress begins as an idea and Peter 3501 02:50:29,120 --> 02:50:36,120 Theel has been building intellectual 3502 02:50:31,359 --> 02:50:36,120 fortresses since he was a child. 3503 02:50:40,160 --> 02:50:45,439 Before he was a billionaire, before he 3504 02:50:42,640 --> 02:50:46,960 funded political outsiders, before he 3505 02:50:45,439 --> 02:50:50,000 built machines that could see 3506 02:50:46,960 --> 02:50:51,920 everything, he was a boy who never 3507 02:50:50,000 --> 02:50:54,720 stayed in one place long enough to 3508 02:50:51,920 --> 02:50:56,640 believe the world made sense. 3509 02:50:54,720 --> 02:51:00,080 So, he searched for a world where the 3510 02:50:56,640 --> 02:51:01,920 rules didn't change. He found it on a 3511 02:51:00,080 --> 02:51:04,319 chessboard. 3512 02:51:01,920 --> 02:51:06,319 To understand Peter Theel, you must 3513 02:51:04,319 --> 02:51:08,960 understand what it means to be a 3514 02:51:06,319 --> 02:51:11,760 permanent outsider. 3515 02:51:08,960 --> 02:51:14,160 Born in Frankfurt, West Germany, Peter 3516 02:51:11,760 --> 02:51:16,413 Theel spent part of his early childhood 3517 02:51:14,160 --> 02:51:17,359 in southwest Africa, now Namibia, 3518 02:51:16,413 --> 02:51:19,439 [music] 3519 02:51:17,359 --> 02:51:21,653 before growing up mainly in the United 3520 02:51:19,439 --> 02:51:23,439 States between Ohio and California. 3521 02:51:21,653 --> 02:51:25,760 [music] 3522 02:51:23,439 --> 02:51:29,040 Before he was a teenager, he had already 3523 02:51:25,760 --> 02:51:31,359 experienced life on multiple continents, 3524 02:51:29,040 --> 02:51:33,359 never staying long enough to feel fully 3525 02:51:31,359 --> 02:51:36,160 at home. 3526 02:51:33,359 --> 02:51:39,920 He didn't have a hometown. He didn't 3527 02:51:36,160 --> 02:51:42,319 have a tribe. He only had his own mind. 3528 02:51:39,920 --> 02:51:45,680 And in that isolation, he found a 3529 02:51:42,319 --> 02:51:48,680 language that didn't require a passport. 3530 02:51:45,680 --> 02:51:48,680 Chess. 3531 02:51:49,200 --> 02:51:52,640 For a child who changed continents 3532 02:51:51,129 --> 02:51:54,640 [music] before he could even make 3533 02:51:52,640 --> 02:51:58,640 friends, the outside world was 3534 02:51:54,640 --> 02:52:01,040 unpredictable noise. But the board, the 3535 02:51:58,640 --> 02:52:02,720 board was the only place where the rules 3536 02:52:01,040 --> 02:52:05,040 didn't change [music] depending on the 3537 02:52:02,720 --> 02:52:07,920 country. 3538 02:52:05,040 --> 02:52:10,319 His 3539 02:52:07,920 --> 02:52:12,800 father, an engineer trained in a culture 3540 02:52:10,319 --> 02:52:15,120 of precision and systems thinking, 3541 02:52:12,800 --> 02:52:18,640 passed on a belief that reality could be 3542 02:52:15,120 --> 02:52:21,120 understood and optimized. 3543 02:52:18,640 --> 02:52:24,160 While other children sought to fit in, 3544 02:52:21,120 --> 02:52:26,960 Peter sought the edge. He learned that 3545 02:52:24,160 --> 02:52:28,640 the consensus of the crowd is usually a 3546 02:52:26,960 --> 02:52:31,200 distraction. 3547 02:52:28,640 --> 02:52:33,840 If everyone is running toward the ball, 3548 02:52:31,200 --> 02:52:35,520 you run toward where the ball is going 3549 02:52:33,840 --> 02:52:37,680 to be. 3550 02:52:35,520 --> 02:52:39,520 Chess is the ultimate antidote to 3551 02:52:37,680 --> 02:52:41,439 consensus. 3552 02:52:39,520 --> 02:52:44,160 In a crowd, you can hide behind a 3553 02:52:41,439 --> 02:52:46,960 popular opinion. In chess, you are 3554 02:52:44,160 --> 02:52:49,040 either [music] right or you are dead. 3555 02:52:46,960 --> 02:52:52,160 There is no middle ground. There is no 3556 02:52:49,040 --> 02:52:54,160 social construction of the board. 3557 02:52:52,160 --> 02:52:56,240 He became a serious tournament chess 3558 02:52:54,160 --> 02:52:59,279 player [music] drawn to a world where 3559 02:52:56,240 --> 02:53:03,359 rules were fixed, outcomes were earned, 3560 02:52:59,279 --> 02:53:07,680 and consensus [music] meant nothing. 3561 02:53:03,359 --> 02:53:10,000 Mid1 1980s Stanford University. 3562 02:53:07,680 --> 02:53:12,319 To the world this was the peak of 3563 02:53:10,000 --> 02:53:16,640 American meritocracy. 3564 02:53:12,319 --> 02:53:18,640 To Theel it was a factory of conformity. 3565 02:53:16,640 --> 02:53:21,040 While his classmates were debating how 3566 02:53:18,640 --> 02:53:23,279 to change the world through activism, 3567 02:53:21,040 --> 02:53:25,920 Theel was wondering why they all sounded 3568 02:53:23,279 --> 02:53:28,000 exactly the same. He saw the 3569 02:53:25,920 --> 02:53:30,160 multiculturalism movement not as 3570 02:53:28,000 --> 02:53:32,319 progress but as a new form of 3571 02:53:30,160 --> 02:53:34,960 fundamentalism. 3572 02:53:32,319 --> 02:53:38,000 Stanford in the late 1980s was ground 3573 02:53:34,960 --> 02:53:40,800 zero for America's culture wars, battles 3574 02:53:38,000 --> 02:53:43,840 over multiculturalism, speech, and the 3575 02:53:40,800 --> 02:53:46,160 purpose of higher education. 3576 02:53:43,840 --> 02:53:49,520 Field believed the university was 3577 02:53:46,160 --> 02:53:51,279 drifting toward ideological conformity, 3578 02:53:49,520 --> 02:53:54,720 that certain views were becoming 3579 02:53:51,279 --> 02:53:57,359 socially, if not formally, offlimits. 3580 02:53:54,720 --> 02:54:00,720 Here his investment methodology was 3581 02:53:57,359 --> 02:54:04,640 born. Identify what the crowd considers 3582 02:54:00,720 --> 02:54:08,080 sacred and question it. 3583 02:54:04,640 --> 02:54:11,040 If everyone says identity diversity is 3584 02:54:08,080 --> 02:54:14,000 the most important thing, you argue that 3585 02:54:11,040 --> 02:54:16,080 intellectual diversity is the only thing 3586 02:54:14,000 --> 02:54:18,319 that matters. 3587 02:54:16,080 --> 02:54:21,520 He wasn't looking for friends. He was 3588 02:54:18,319 --> 02:54:24,399 looking to recruit others who like him 3589 02:54:21,520 --> 02:54:27,680 did not fear being hated. 3590 02:54:24,399 --> 02:54:30,000 He founded the Stanford Review. The 3591 02:54:27,680 --> 02:54:33,279 paper quickly became one of the most 3592 02:54:30,000 --> 02:54:35,535 controversial publications on campus, 3593 02:54:33,279 --> 02:54:36,080 attacking what field saw as intellectual 3594 02:54:35,535 --> 02:54:39,920 [music] 3595 02:54:36,080 --> 02:54:42,080 monoculture and political group think. 3596 02:54:39,920 --> 02:54:44,479 He saw that the smartest people in the 3597 02:54:42,080 --> 02:54:47,680 country were all competing for the same 3598 02:54:44,479 --> 02:54:49,439 narrow prizes, thinking the same narrow 3599 02:54:47,680 --> 02:54:52,800 thoughts. 3600 02:54:49,439 --> 02:54:54,880 He did what every top student does. He 3601 02:54:52,800 --> 02:54:57,359 followed the track. 3602 02:54:54,880 --> 02:55:00,319 After Stanford Law, he secured a 3603 02:54:57,359 --> 02:55:02,720 prestigious federal appalate clerkship, 3604 02:55:00,319 --> 02:55:05,120 the kind of credential that opens every 3605 02:55:02,720 --> 02:55:07,359 elite door in America. 3606 02:55:05,120 --> 02:55:09,600 After his clerkship, he joined Sullivan 3607 02:55:07,359 --> 02:55:12,800 and Cromwell in [music] New York, one of 3608 02:55:09,600 --> 02:55:15,520 the most elite law firms in the world. 3609 02:55:12,800 --> 02:55:17,920 On paper, he had reached the summit. 3610 02:55:15,520 --> 02:55:20,479 Wall Street was his great negative 3611 02:55:17,920 --> 02:55:22,696 epiphany. 3612 02:55:20,479 --> 02:55:24,640 But from his perspective, the brightest 3613 02:55:22,696 --> 02:55:26,960 [music] graduates in America were locked 3614 02:55:24,640 --> 02:55:29,920 in brutal competition for careers they 3615 02:55:26,960 --> 02:55:32,319 didn't even seem to want. 3616 02:55:29,920 --> 02:55:35,040 It looked like Renee Gerard's theory 3617 02:55:32,319 --> 02:55:37,439 made flesh, a system where everyone 3618 02:55:35,040 --> 02:55:40,479 desired the same prize simply because 3619 02:55:37,439 --> 02:55:43,279 everyone else did. Wall Street looked at 3620 02:55:40,479 --> 02:55:46,319 Theo like a laboratory of mimemetic 3621 02:55:43,279 --> 02:55:48,880 rivalry. He realized that if he won that 3622 02:55:46,319 --> 02:55:52,160 race, his prize would be becoming the 3623 02:55:48,880 --> 02:55:55,439 man in the office next door. A copy of a 3624 02:55:52,160 --> 02:55:58,240 copy. The day he lost the opportunity to 3625 02:55:55,439 --> 02:56:01,760 clerk for the US Supreme Court wasn't a 3626 02:55:58,240 --> 02:56:05,040 defeat. It was his liberation. 3627 02:56:01,760 --> 02:56:07,680 He lasted less than a year. But Theo's 3628 02:56:05,040 --> 02:56:10,479 first venture after leaving law was a 3629 02:56:07,680 --> 02:56:12,399 humbling lesson in failure. A lesson 3630 02:56:10,479 --> 02:56:15,359 that would shape everything that came 3631 02:56:12,399 --> 02:56:18,160 after. 3632 02:56:15,359 --> 02:56:21,359 In 1996, he launched Theel [music] 3633 02:56:18,160 --> 02:56:24,319 Capital Management, 3634 02:56:21,359 --> 02:56:27,520 a hedge fund focused on currency trading 3635 02:56:24,319 --> 02:56:30,319 and macroeconomic derivatives. 3636 02:56:27,520 --> 02:56:32,319 The strategy was to make big directional 3637 02:56:30,319 --> 02:56:34,800 bets on [music] interest rates, 3638 02:56:32,319 --> 02:56:38,000 inflation expectations, and foreign 3639 02:56:34,800 --> 02:56:41,840 exchange movements. Initial capital 3640 02:56:38,000 --> 02:56:43,920 raised $1 million mostly from Stanford 3641 02:56:41,840 --> 02:56:48,680 connections who believed in the chess 3642 02:56:43,920 --> 02:56:48,680 prodigy turned lawyer turned financia. 3643 02:56:49,520 --> 02:56:54,880 The result was spectacular failure. 3644 02:56:52,640 --> 02:56:58,160 Within the first year, the fund had lost 3645 02:56:54,880 --> 02:57:00,947 significant capital. Industry estimates 3646 02:56:58,160 --> 02:57:03,760 suggest losses between 30 and 40% 3647 02:57:00,947 --> 02:57:06,800 [music] of the initial investment pool. 3648 02:57:03,760 --> 02:57:10,000 Investors fled. Some demanded their 3649 02:57:06,800 --> 02:57:12,399 remaining money back immediately. 3650 02:57:10,000 --> 02:57:14,240 The reputation among finance 3651 02:57:12,399 --> 02:57:15,840 professionals, the people he [music] had 3652 02:57:14,240 --> 02:57:19,520 walked away from at Sullivan and 3653 02:57:15,840 --> 02:57:22,800 Cromwell, took a serious hit. 3654 02:57:19,520 --> 02:57:26,080 He was no longer the Stanford genius. He 3655 02:57:22,800 --> 02:57:28,560 was just another failed trader. 3656 02:57:26,080 --> 02:57:31,040 But this failure taught him the most 3657 02:57:28,560 --> 02:57:34,080 important lesson of his career. 3658 02:57:31,040 --> 02:57:36,479 Competition is for losers. 3659 02:57:34,080 --> 02:57:38,938 Do not compete in crowded markets where 3660 02:57:36,479 --> 02:57:40,880 everyone is making the same trades with 3661 02:57:38,938 --> 02:57:42,880 [music] the same information and the 3662 02:57:40,880 --> 02:57:45,279 same tools. 3663 02:57:42,880 --> 02:57:48,107 Wall Street was full of extremely smart 3664 02:57:45,279 --> 02:57:50,160 people doing the same macro trades, 3665 02:57:48,107 --> 02:57:52,640 [music] reading the same economic 3666 02:57:50,160 --> 02:57:55,760 reports, betting on the same currency 3667 02:57:52,640 --> 02:57:58,240 movements. It was a zero someum game 3668 02:57:55,760 --> 02:58:01,040 played by thousands of nearly identical 3669 02:57:58,240 --> 02:58:03,279 players. 3670 02:58:01,040 --> 02:58:06,319 He needed to find a space where the 3671 02:58:03,279 --> 02:58:08,720 rules were still being written, where 3672 02:58:06,319 --> 02:58:11,760 being first mattered more than being 3673 02:58:08,720 --> 02:58:13,920 best, where a [music] monopoly position 3674 02:58:11,760 --> 02:58:16,240 was still available. 3675 02:58:13,920 --> 02:58:18,640 He needed technology. 3676 02:58:16,240 --> 02:58:22,399 And from the ashes of the capital 3677 02:58:18,640 --> 02:58:24,960 management, a new philosophy was born. 3678 02:58:22,399 --> 02:58:28,240 If you want to create lasting value, you 3679 02:58:24,960 --> 02:58:31,040 have to build a monopoly. This became 3680 02:58:28,240 --> 02:58:34,760 his investing mantra and it would make 3681 02:58:31,040 --> 02:58:34,760 him billions. 3682 02:58:36,319 --> 02:58:40,720 The [music] walked away from the firm 3683 02:58:37,920 --> 02:58:43,920 and went back to California not to start 3684 02:58:40,720 --> 02:58:47,120 a tech empire but to try trading then to 3685 02:58:43,920 --> 02:58:49,439 launch a hedge fund. It failed. The 3686 02:58:47,120 --> 02:58:52,000 system he had rejected did not welcome 3687 02:58:49,439 --> 02:58:54,000 him back as a prodigy. It treated him 3688 02:58:52,000 --> 02:58:56,000 like a nobody. 3689 02:58:54,000 --> 02:58:59,920 That failure would become the last 3690 02:58:56,000 --> 02:59:02,319 lesson before his real beginning. But he 3691 02:58:59,920 --> 02:59:04,960 learned something. If you play the 3692 02:59:02,319 --> 02:59:06,960 system game as everyone else, you've 3693 02:59:04,960 --> 02:59:08,720 already lost. 3694 02:59:06,960 --> 02:59:11,600 The chess master was [music] done with 3695 02:59:08,720 --> 02:59:14,600 the board. He was ready to build his 3696 02:59:11,600 --> 02:59:14,600 own. 3697 02:59:19,600 --> 02:59:23,520 So this is an ATM. What we're going to 3698 02:59:21,520 --> 02:59:25,359 do is transform the traditional banking 3699 02:59:23,520 --> 02:59:28,880 industry. 3700 02:59:25,359 --> 02:59:30,479 >> I do not fit the picture of a banker. 3701 02:59:28,880 --> 02:59:32,560 >> X.com. This is Julie. 3702 02:59:30,479 --> 02:59:35,120 >> Raising $50 million is a matter of 3703 02:59:32,560 --> 02:59:37,359 making a series of phone calls and the 3704 02:59:35,120 --> 02:59:39,279 money is there. 3705 02:59:37,359 --> 02:59:41,359 >> I've sunk the great majority of of my 3706 02:59:39,279 --> 02:59:43,520 net worth into [music] X.com, which is 3707 02:59:41,359 --> 02:59:46,000 the new banking and mutual funds company 3708 02:59:43,520 --> 02:59:48,479 on the internet that I've started. 3709 02:59:46,000 --> 02:59:51,279 December 1998, 3710 02:59:48,479 --> 02:59:54,640 Peter Theel co-founds a company called 3711 02:59:51,279 --> 02:59:56,960 Conffinity with Max Levchin, a brilliant 3712 02:59:54,640 --> 02:59:59,359 Ukrainian born programmer, and Luke 3713 02:59:56,960 --> 03:00:01,359 Nosk, a fellow Stanford review 3714 02:59:59,359 --> 03:00:04,479 illuminous. 3715 03:00:01,359 --> 03:00:06,479 Initial funding, $300,000 scraped 3716 03:00:04,479 --> 03:00:08,640 together from friends, family, and 3717 03:00:06,479 --> 03:00:10,720 fellow libertarian true believers from 3718 03:00:08,640 --> 03:00:13,120 the Stamford days. 3719 03:00:10,720 --> 03:00:17,040 The original product idea, digital 3720 03:00:13,120 --> 03:00:19,439 wallets on Palm Pilot handheld devices. 3721 03:00:17,040 --> 03:00:20,960 The vision was that people would beam 3722 03:00:19,439 --> 03:00:24,640 money to each [music] other using 3723 03:00:20,960 --> 03:00:27,359 infrared ports on the Palm Pilots 3724 03:00:24,640 --> 03:00:28,880 in coffee shops, at restaurants, 3725 03:00:27,359 --> 03:00:33,240 persontoerson, 3726 03:00:28,880 --> 03:00:33,240 bypassing banks entirely. 3727 03:00:33,520 --> 03:00:41,600 Total users [music] after 6 months of 3728 03:00:35,680 --> 03:00:43,840 operation, 12 people. literally 12. 3729 03:00:41,600 --> 03:00:46,640 Most of them were employees and their 3730 03:00:43,840 --> 03:00:50,160 friends testing the system. It was a 3731 03:00:46,640 --> 03:00:53,120 complete and utter flop. The technology 3732 03:00:50,160 --> 03:00:58,080 worked, but nobody cared. Nobody wanted 3733 03:00:53,120 --> 03:01:01,439 it. March 2000, Conffinity pivots hard 3734 03:00:58,080 --> 03:01:03,840 and launches a new feature, email-based 3735 03:01:01,439 --> 03:01:06,880 money transfers. 3736 03:01:03,840 --> 03:01:08,880 You send money to any email address. The 3737 03:01:06,880 --> 03:01:10,880 recipient gets a notification, [music] 3738 03:01:08,880 --> 03:01:14,399 creates an account, and the money is 3739 03:01:10,880 --> 03:01:18,240 there. Simple, instant, revolutionary. 3740 03:01:14,399 --> 03:01:21,120 The name of this new service, PayPal. 3741 03:01:18,240 --> 03:01:23,760 Within weeks, user growth exploded at a 3742 03:01:21,120 --> 03:01:25,359 rate nobody had ever seen in financial 3743 03:01:23,760 --> 03:01:27,439 services. 3744 03:01:25,359 --> 03:01:32,560 Month one, 10,000 [music] 3745 03:01:27,439 --> 03:01:37,360 users. Month three, 100,000 users. Month 3746 03:01:32,560 --> 03:01:40,399 6, 1 million users. Month 12, 5 million 3747 03:01:37,360 --> 03:01:42,800 [music] users. 3748 03:01:40,399 --> 03:01:45,040 This was the fastest user adoption rate 3749 03:01:42,800 --> 03:01:48,000 in the entire history of financial 3750 03:01:45,040 --> 03:01:50,479 services. Faster than credit cards, 3751 03:01:48,000 --> 03:01:52,479 faster than checking accounts, faster 3752 03:01:50,479 --> 03:01:55,040 than anything. 3753 03:01:52,479 --> 03:01:58,080 But here is what most people do not know 3754 03:01:55,040 --> 03:02:01,439 about PayPal's growth. Here is the 3755 03:01:58,080 --> 03:02:04,560 secret that the mythology leaves out. 3756 03:02:01,439 --> 03:02:08,960 PayPal's explosive user acquisition was 3757 03:02:04,560 --> 03:02:13,840 not organic. It was not word of mouth. 3758 03:02:08,960 --> 03:02:16,160 It was not viral in the natural sense. 3759 03:02:13,840 --> 03:02:20,080 They literally bought their users with 3760 03:02:16,160 --> 03:02:22,880 cash. The strategy was elegantly simple 3761 03:02:20,080 --> 03:02:26,000 and brutally expensive. 3762 03:02:22,880 --> 03:02:29,120 Sign up for a PayPal account, get $10 3763 03:02:26,000 --> 03:02:32,720 deposited instantly. Refer a friend who 3764 03:02:29,120 --> 03:02:35,656 signs up gets another $10. Your friend 3765 03:02:32,720 --> 03:02:36,560 also gets $10. Cost per acquisition 3766 03:02:35,656 --> 03:02:40,240 [music] 3767 03:02:36,560 --> 03:02:43,840 20 to $40 per user depending on how many 3768 03:02:40,240 --> 03:02:47,120 referrals each user [music] generated. 3769 03:02:43,840 --> 03:02:50,000 Monthly cash burn rate of peak growth 10 3770 03:02:47,120 --> 03:02:53,600 to 12 million [music] 3771 03:02:50,000 --> 03:02:56,080 just vanishing into user acquisition. By 3772 03:02:53,600 --> 03:02:59,760 late 2000, PayPal was [music] spending 3773 03:02:56,080 --> 03:03:02,880 60 to 70 million annually just to buy 3774 03:02:59,760 --> 03:03:04,960 users with cash incentives. 3775 03:03:02,880 --> 03:03:07,600 They were hemorrhaging money at a 3776 03:03:04,960 --> 03:03:10,160 terrifying rate. Investors were 3777 03:03:07,600 --> 03:03:12,880 panicking. Board members were demanding 3778 03:03:10,160 --> 03:03:15,359 answers. 3779 03:03:12,880 --> 03:03:18,960 How long can you sustain spending $10 3780 03:03:15,359 --> 03:03:22,000 million a month buying users? 3781 03:03:18,960 --> 03:03:25,040 But Theo had done the mathematics. He 3782 03:03:22,000 --> 03:03:28,000 had run the numbers obsessively. 3783 03:03:25,040 --> 03:03:31,332 Each acquired user was worth $100 to 3784 03:03:28,000 --> 03:03:34,479 $200 in lifetime transaction fee revenue 3785 03:03:31,332 --> 03:03:37,520 [music] through the PayPal network. They 3786 03:03:34,479 --> 03:03:41,760 were buying $100 bills for $20 [music] 3787 03:03:37,520 --> 03:03:43,920 bills. It was either genius or insanity 3788 03:03:41,760 --> 03:03:47,600 depending on whether the math actually 3789 03:03:43,920 --> 03:03:50,319 worked. The believed it would work. He 3790 03:03:47,600 --> 03:03:53,520 bet everything on it. But there was a 3791 03:03:50,319 --> 03:03:55,520 problem. a major problem. Another 3792 03:03:53,520 --> 03:03:59,840 company was doing [music] the exact same 3793 03:03:55,520 --> 03:04:03,040 thing. X.com, a finance company founded 3794 03:03:59,840 --> 03:04:05,520 by Elon Musk with money from his Zip 2 3795 03:04:03,040 --> 03:04:10,240 exit and a vision for online banking 3796 03:04:05,520 --> 03:04:13,840 that was nearly identical to PayPal's. 3797 03:04:10,240 --> 03:04:16,527 Two companies, same idea, same market, 3798 03:04:13,840 --> 03:04:19,840 both burning massive amounts of cash at 3799 03:04:16,527 --> 03:04:22,000 [music] completely unsustainable rates. 3800 03:04:19,840 --> 03:04:26,080 Total funding raised between both 3801 03:04:22,000 --> 03:04:29,359 companies over $100 million. 3802 03:04:26,080 --> 03:04:30,800 Combined monthly cash burn rate over $20 3803 03:04:29,359 --> 03:04:33,200 million [music] 3804 03:04:30,800 --> 03:04:38,240 time until both companies simultaneously 3805 03:04:33,200 --> 03:04:41,040 ran out of money less than 6 months. 3806 03:04:38,240 --> 03:04:44,000 The merger was inevitable. 3807 03:04:41,040 --> 03:04:47,200 X.com [music] and Confinity merged into 3808 03:04:44,000 --> 03:04:49,277 a single entity. The combined company 3809 03:04:47,200 --> 03:04:51,600 kept the PayPal name because users 3810 03:04:49,277 --> 03:04:54,560 [music] had already adopted it. The 3811 03:04:51,600 --> 03:04:56,560 brand had momentum. Elon Musk became 3812 03:04:54,560 --> 03:05:01,720 chief executive [music] officer of the 3813 03:04:56,560 --> 03:05:01,720 merged company for 5 months. 3814 03:05:03,040 --> 03:05:09,359 October 2000, while Elon Musk was on his 3815 03:05:06,720 --> 03:05:12,080 honeymoon, the board of directors led by 3816 03:05:09,359 --> 03:05:15,279 Peter Theel and other Confinity founders 3817 03:05:12,080 --> 03:05:17,840 held an emergency meeting and voted Musk 3818 03:05:15,279 --> 03:05:20,560 out as CEO. 3819 03:05:17,840 --> 03:05:21,279 The official reason cited strategic 3820 03:05:20,560 --> 03:05:24,640 disagreements [music] 3821 03:05:21,279 --> 03:05:27,920 over technology platform. Musk wanted to 3822 03:05:24,640 --> 03:05:31,600 use Microsoft software. The Confinity 3823 03:05:27,920 --> 03:05:34,960 engineers believed in Unixbased systems. 3824 03:05:31,600 --> 03:05:40,720 The actual reason Theel wanted control, 3825 03:05:34,960 --> 03:05:42,960 full control. This was his company now. 3826 03:05:40,720 --> 03:05:45,619 Peter Theel became chief executive 3827 03:05:42,960 --> 03:05:48,000 officer of PayPal. Elon Musk remained 3828 03:05:45,619 --> 03:05:52,479 [music] a major shareholder, but his 3829 03:05:48,000 --> 03:05:55,359 operational control was finished. 3830 03:05:52,479 --> 03:05:57,840 The two men, both future billionaires, 3831 03:05:55,359 --> 03:06:02,000 both future power brokers, had their 3832 03:05:57,840 --> 03:06:04,800 first battle. feel one. At its core, 3833 03:06:02,000 --> 03:06:07,520 PayPal ran on a simple idea that turned 3834 03:06:04,800 --> 03:06:10,000 into a powerful engine. 3835 03:06:07,520 --> 03:06:14,080 Every time money moved, PayPal took a 3836 03:06:10,000 --> 03:06:16,560 small cut, 2.9% plus 30 cents per 3837 03:06:14,080 --> 03:06:18,319 transaction. If that money crossed 3838 03:06:16,560 --> 03:06:21,680 borders, [music] the fee climbed to 3839 03:06:18,319 --> 03:06:23,520 between 2 1/2 and 4%. 3840 03:06:21,680 --> 03:06:25,359 Then there was the float, [music] the 3841 03:06:23,520 --> 03:06:27,680 cash sitting in PayPal's accounts 3842 03:06:25,359 --> 03:06:31,040 between payments, quietly earning 3843 03:06:27,680 --> 03:06:33,920 interest for the company. Tiny slices 3844 03:06:31,040 --> 03:06:37,040 repeated millions of times. 3845 03:06:33,920 --> 03:06:40,800 By 2001, the numbers told the story of a 3846 03:06:37,040 --> 03:06:43,760 system coming to life. Every single day, 3847 03:06:40,800 --> 03:06:46,720 5 to8 million flowed through PayPal's 3848 03:06:43,760 --> 03:06:51,680 network. Each month, that translated 3849 03:06:46,720 --> 03:06:54,640 into 10 to$15 million in revenue. 3850 03:06:51,680 --> 03:06:57,200 But growth at this speed came at a cost. 3851 03:06:54,640 --> 03:07:00,080 Running the system, fighting fraud, 3852 03:06:57,200 --> 03:07:05,200 scaling infrastructure, acquiring users, 3853 03:07:00,080 --> 03:07:07,520 was burning 20 to30 million every month. 3854 03:07:05,200 --> 03:07:09,920 The machine worked, it just wasn't 3855 03:07:07,520 --> 03:07:11,920 profitable yet. 3856 03:07:09,920 --> 03:07:14,479 Late 2000, 3857 03:07:11,920 --> 03:07:18,160 PayPal's data scientists discovered 3858 03:07:14,479 --> 03:07:20,560 something crucial. 70% of all PayPal 3859 03:07:18,160 --> 03:07:22,240 transactions were happening on eBay 3860 03:07:20,560 --> 03:07:24,479 auctions. 3861 03:07:22,240 --> 03:07:27,120 People buying and selling random items 3862 03:07:24,479 --> 03:07:30,479 on the internet's largest marketplace 3863 03:07:27,120 --> 03:07:32,800 were using PayPal to move money. The 3864 03:07:30,479 --> 03:07:36,160 strategic insight became immediately 3865 03:07:32,800 --> 03:07:40,319 clear. Make PayPal the only payment 3866 03:07:36,160 --> 03:07:44,319 method that eBay users trust completely. 3867 03:07:40,319 --> 03:07:46,960 Own that market, become indispensable. 3868 03:07:44,319 --> 03:07:49,279 The execution buyer protection 3869 03:07:46,960 --> 03:07:52,080 guarantees that eBay's own payment 3870 03:07:49,279 --> 03:07:54,800 system did not offer 3871 03:07:52,080 --> 03:07:58,600 instant payment transfers with no 7-day 3872 03:07:54,800 --> 03:07:58,600 check clearing period. 3873 03:07:59,040 --> 03:08:04,160 Fraud detection algorithms that were 3874 03:08:01,200 --> 03:08:07,120 better than credit card companies. Email 3875 03:08:04,160 --> 03:08:11,520 notifications for every transaction. 3876 03:08:07,120 --> 03:08:14,880 Simple, clean user interface. 3877 03:08:11,520 --> 03:08:18,640 By mid 2001, the strategy was working 3878 03:08:14,880 --> 03:08:21,359 beyond all projections. 50% of all eBay 3879 03:08:18,640 --> 03:08:24,640 auctions accepted PayPal as a payment 3880 03:08:21,359 --> 03:08:27,520 method. PayPal was processing [music] 3881 03:08:24,640 --> 03:08:30,479 $50 million daily in eBay related 3882 03:08:27,520 --> 03:08:35,680 transactions alone. And then eBay 3883 03:08:30,479 --> 03:08:37,760 noticed and eBay was not happy. 3884 03:08:35,680 --> 03:08:40,080 eBay launched their own competing 3885 03:08:37,760 --> 03:08:42,880 service called Billpoint and attempted 3886 03:08:40,080 --> 03:08:45,040 to kill PayPal through the marketplace. 3887 03:08:42,880 --> 03:08:48,080 They promoted Billoint in search 3888 03:08:45,040 --> 03:08:50,800 rankings. They penalized sellers who 3889 03:08:48,080 --> 03:08:53,920 only accepted PayPal. They made it 3890 03:08:50,800 --> 03:08:55,680 harder to display the PayPal logo. It 3891 03:08:53,920 --> 03:08:58,720 was war. 3892 03:08:55,680 --> 03:09:01,359 PayPal's response was total war. 3893 03:08:58,720 --> 03:09:03,920 Temporarily lower transaction fees to 3894 03:09:01,359 --> 03:09:06,080 undercut Billoint. 3895 03:09:03,920 --> 03:09:09,279 Guarantee faster money transfers than 3896 03:09:06,080 --> 03:09:12,960 eBay could offer. Invest heavily in 3897 03:09:09,279 --> 03:09:16,000 superior $30 million deployed in 2001 3898 03:09:12,960 --> 03:09:18,560 fraud protection. Massive marketing 3899 03:09:16,000 --> 03:09:22,319 spending alone. 3900 03:09:18,560 --> 03:09:26,640 By early 2002, the war was over. PayPal 3901 03:09:22,319 --> 03:09:30,640 controlled 65% of eBay's payment market. 3902 03:09:26,640 --> 03:09:32,960 Bill point [music] at barely 10%. 3903 03:09:30,640 --> 03:09:35,600 eBay executives looked at the numbers 3904 03:09:32,960 --> 03:09:40,640 and reached a conclusion, if you cannot 3905 03:09:35,600 --> 03:09:44,800 beat them, buy them. July 2002, 3906 03:09:40,640 --> 03:09:46,880 eBay acquires PayPal for $1.5 billion in 3907 03:09:44,800 --> 03:09:50,560 eBay stock. 3908 03:09:46,880 --> 03:09:53,439 Peter Theal owned approximately $3.7% of 3909 03:09:50,560 --> 03:09:56,640 PayPal at the time of the acquisition. 3910 03:09:53,439 --> 03:10:00,160 His equity stake was worth $55 million 3911 03:09:56,640 --> 03:10:02,640 in eBay stock. After taxes, he walked 3912 03:10:00,160 --> 03:10:06,560 away with approximately $40 million in 3913 03:10:02,640 --> 03:10:10,160 liquid wealth. At age 34, he had won his 3914 03:10:06,560 --> 03:10:12,160 first billion dollar game. 3915 03:10:10,160 --> 03:10:15,520 But the money was not the most valuable 3916 03:10:12,160 --> 03:10:19,520 thing he extracted from PayPal. The real 3917 03:10:15,520 --> 03:10:21,520 value was the network, the PayPal mafia, 3918 03:10:19,520 --> 03:10:24,319 the name they [music] gave themselves. 3919 03:10:21,520 --> 03:10:27,279 And it was not ironic. It was 3920 03:10:24,319 --> 03:10:29,600 descriptive. The core team that Theel 3921 03:10:27,279 --> 03:10:31,359 assembled at PayPal would go on to 3922 03:10:29,600 --> 03:10:35,200 create some of the most valuable 3923 03:10:31,359 --> 03:10:40,000 companies in human history. Elon Musk 3924 03:10:35,200 --> 03:10:44,880 Tesla market cap [music] $650 billion. 3925 03:10:40,000 --> 03:10:47,920 SpaceX estimated value $150 billion. 3926 03:10:44,880 --> 03:10:50,880 Reed Hoffman LinkedIn sold to Microsoft 3927 03:10:47,920 --> 03:10:54,960 for $26 billion. 3928 03:10:50,880 --> 03:10:58,399 Steve Chen, Chad Hurley, Jawed Kareem. 3929 03:10:54,960 --> 03:11:04,600 YouTube sold to Google for $1.65 3930 03:10:58,399 --> 03:11:04,600 billion, now worth over 100 billion. 3931 03:11:04,880 --> 03:11:11,600 Jeremy Stoppleman and Russell Simmons, 3932 03:11:07,520 --> 03:11:14,640 Yelp, peaked at $3 billion market cap. 3933 03:11:11,600 --> 03:11:17,760 David Saxs, Yammer, sold to Microsoft 3934 03:11:14,640 --> 03:11:20,720 for $1.2 billion. 3935 03:11:17,760 --> 03:11:24,960 later founded Craft Ventures. Max 3936 03:11:20,720 --> 03:11:30,080 Levchin, a firm $12 billion company, 3937 03:11:24,960 --> 03:11:32,880 also co-founded Yelp. Keith Rabo, COO of 3938 03:11:30,080 --> 03:11:37,560 Square, partner at Founders Fund, 3939 03:11:32,880 --> 03:11:37,560 investor in dozens of unicorns. 3940 03:11:37,680 --> 03:11:44,399 Roloff Bofer, partner at Seoia Capital, 3941 03:11:41,600 --> 03:11:48,960 led investments in Instagram, YouTube, 3942 03:11:44,399 --> 03:11:52,000 Tumblr, MongoDB, Eventbrite. 3943 03:11:48,960 --> 03:11:53,920 Total value created by the PayPal mafia 3944 03:11:52,000 --> 03:11:57,439 across all their companies, 3945 03:11:53,920 --> 03:11:59,840 conservatively estimated at over $200 3946 03:11:57,439 --> 03:12:02,160 billion in combined market 3947 03:11:59,840 --> 03:12:04,319 capitalization. 3948 03:12:02,160 --> 03:12:06,160 Field's ownership stakes across this 3949 03:12:04,319 --> 03:12:09,359 extended network through direct 3950 03:12:06,160 --> 03:12:12,560 investments and fund positions estimated 3951 03:12:09,359 --> 03:12:14,560 at 2 to4 billion. 3952 03:12:12,560 --> 03:12:15,760 This was not just a company that got 3953 03:12:14,560 --> 03:12:18,000 acquired. [music] 3954 03:12:15,760 --> 03:12:20,560 This was the creation of the most 3955 03:12:18,000 --> 03:12:23,960 powerful business cartel in Silicon 3956 03:12:20,560 --> 03:12:23,960 Valley history. 3957 03:12:24,160 --> 03:12:29,680 But what made PayPal different was not 3958 03:12:26,720 --> 03:12:32,080 the technology. Not really. The 3959 03:12:29,680 --> 03:12:33,680 technology was impressive but not 3960 03:12:32,080 --> 03:12:35,760 miraculous. 3961 03:12:33,680 --> 03:12:38,560 What made PayPal different was the 3962 03:12:35,760 --> 03:12:40,399 culture, the religion of extreme 3963 03:12:38,560 --> 03:12:43,439 meritocracy. 3964 03:12:40,399 --> 03:12:45,359 Theo's hiring criteria were brutally 3965 03:12:43,439 --> 03:12:49,200 specific. 3966 03:12:45,359 --> 03:12:52,560 One raw intelligence, high test scores, 3967 03:12:49,200 --> 03:12:54,479 ability to solve complex puzzles, proof 3968 03:12:52,560 --> 03:12:58,000 you could think better than everyone 3969 03:12:54,479 --> 03:13:01,040 else. [music] Two, intensity. 3970 03:12:58,000 --> 03:13:02,960 Are you willing to work 100hour weeks? 3971 03:13:01,040 --> 03:13:05,760 Are you willing to sacrifice everything 3972 03:13:02,960 --> 03:13:08,960 else in your life for the mission? 3973 03:13:05,760 --> 03:13:10,880 Three, [music] missionary zeal. Do you 3974 03:13:08,960 --> 03:13:14,960 actually believe we are changing the 3975 03:13:10,880 --> 03:13:18,240 world or are you here for a paycheck? 3976 03:13:14,960 --> 03:13:20,479 Four, loyalty to the tribe. Will you 3977 03:13:18,240 --> 03:13:23,760 protect the other members? Will you put 3978 03:13:20,479 --> 03:13:27,120 the group above yourself? 3979 03:13:23,760 --> 03:13:31,120 Average employee age at PayPal 25 years 3980 03:13:27,120 --> 03:13:32,640 old. Average work week [music] 80 to 100 3981 03:13:31,120 --> 03:13:34,960 hours. 3982 03:13:32,640 --> 03:13:37,520 Office culture libertarian, 3983 03:13:34,960 --> 03:13:39,359 anti-regulation, contrarian, 3984 03:13:37,520 --> 03:13:41,439 anti-establishment. 3985 03:13:39,359 --> 03:13:43,920 They called themselves the mafia 3986 03:13:41,439 --> 03:13:47,479 specifically because loyalty mattered 3987 03:13:43,920 --> 03:13:47,479 more than credentials, 3988 03:13:48,720 --> 03:13:54,239 more than degrees, more than previous 3989 03:13:50,960 --> 03:13:57,120 experience. Theel's operating principle 3990 03:13:54,239 --> 03:13:59,439 stated explicitly and repeatedly, 3991 03:13:57,120 --> 03:14:01,120 talented people do not want to work with 3992 03:13:59,439 --> 03:14:04,960 people who are less talented [music] 3993 03:14:01,120 --> 03:14:07,279 than they are. So every new hire must be 3994 03:14:04,960 --> 03:14:09,680 more talented than the average current 3995 03:14:07,279 --> 03:14:13,359 employee. Otherwise, we [music] are 3996 03:14:09,680 --> 03:14:16,080 diluting the talent pool. This created a 3997 03:14:13,359 --> 03:14:19,439 self-reinforcing escalation, [music] 3998 03:14:16,080 --> 03:14:22,160 an arms race of hiring. Every new person 3999 03:14:19,439 --> 03:14:25,680 raised the bar. The standards became 4000 03:14:22,160 --> 03:14:28,880 higher and higher. Only the absolute 4001 03:14:25,680 --> 03:14:32,160 best could get in. And once you were in, 4002 03:14:28,880 --> 03:14:34,560 you were family. But here is what most 4003 03:14:32,160 --> 03:14:36,640 people [music] forget about PayPal. Here 4004 03:14:34,560 --> 03:14:39,279 is the original vision that got erased 4005 03:14:36,640 --> 03:14:42,560 from the mythology. PayPal [music] was 4006 03:14:39,279 --> 03:14:44,640 supposed to destroy the Federal Reserve. 4007 03:14:42,560 --> 03:14:47,760 It was supposed to undermine state 4008 03:14:44,640 --> 03:14:50,479 control of currency. That was the actual 4009 03:14:47,760 --> 03:14:52,800 mission. That was why Peter Theal, the 4010 03:14:50,479 --> 03:14:55,200 libertarian ideologue, cared so [music] 4011 03:14:52,800 --> 03:14:57,760 much. 4012 03:14:55,200 --> 03:15:00,640 The original vision laid out in Theo's 4013 03:14:57,760 --> 03:15:04,080 founding documents create a new digital 4014 03:15:00,640 --> 03:15:05,920 currency outside government control. 4015 03:15:04,080 --> 03:15:08,239 Enable [music] true peer-to-peer 4016 03:15:05,920 --> 03:15:09,840 transactions globally without state 4017 03:15:08,239 --> 03:15:11,439 intermediaries. 4018 03:15:09,840 --> 03:15:15,040 Undermine the state monopoly [music] 4019 03:15:11,439 --> 03:15:17,600 on money creation and management. 4020 03:15:15,040 --> 03:15:19,920 build the financial infrastructure for a 4021 03:15:17,600 --> 03:15:22,319 stateless society. 4022 03:15:19,920 --> 03:15:24,640 What actually happened? To become 4023 03:15:22,319 --> 03:15:27,279 mainstream, to [music] actually scale, 4024 03:15:24,640 --> 03:15:29,359 PayPal had to compromise every single 4025 03:15:27,279 --> 03:15:31,520 founding principle. [music] They had to 4026 03:15:29,359 --> 03:15:35,040 integrate with the traditional banking 4027 03:15:31,520 --> 03:15:36,880 system. The enemy, they had to comply 4028 03:15:35,040 --> 03:15:39,760 with know your [music] customer and 4029 03:15:36,880 --> 03:15:41,920 anti-moneyaundering regulations, 4030 03:15:39,760 --> 03:15:43,760 government control. 4031 03:15:41,920 --> 03:15:46,000 They had to partner with credit card 4032 03:15:43,760 --> 03:15:48,399 companies, the old system [music] they 4033 03:15:46,000 --> 03:15:50,960 wanted to destroy. They had to get 4034 03:15:48,399 --> 03:15:53,520 licensed in every single state. 4035 03:15:50,960 --> 03:15:55,680 Regulatory [music] capture. They had to 4036 03:15:53,520 --> 03:15:59,359 report suspicious transactions to 4037 03:15:55,680 --> 03:16:03,040 federal authorities. Surveillance. By 4038 03:15:59,359 --> 03:16:05,920 2002, PayPal was regulated exactly like 4039 03:16:03,040 --> 03:16:08,080 a bank. Partnered with banks, [music] 4040 03:16:05,920 --> 03:16:10,479 dependent on banks for all core 4041 03:16:08,080 --> 03:16:12,720 functionalities. The libertarian 4042 03:16:10,479 --> 03:16:14,800 revolution had become just another 4043 03:16:12,720 --> 03:16:17,120 fintech company [music] playing by the 4044 03:16:14,800 --> 03:16:19,439 government's rules. 4045 03:16:17,120 --> 03:16:21,520 The learned the most important lesson of 4046 03:16:19,439 --> 03:16:24,399 his career from PayPal's failure to 4047 03:16:21,520 --> 03:16:26,880 achieve its revolutionary mission. You 4048 03:16:24,399 --> 03:16:29,760 cannot disrupt the system from inside 4049 03:16:26,880 --> 03:16:32,080 the system. If you want to change the 4050 03:16:29,760 --> 03:16:34,160 rules, you cannot ask permission from 4051 03:16:32,080 --> 03:16:36,399 the people who wrote them. [music] 4052 03:16:34,160 --> 03:16:41,880 This lesson would shape everything he 4053 03:16:36,399 --> 03:16:41,880 did next. Palanteer, Facebook, 4054 03:16:41,920 --> 03:16:48,000 his political investments, everything. 4055 03:16:45,855 --> 03:16:51,120 [music] The PayPal acquisition was not 4056 03:16:48,000 --> 03:16:53,920 an ending. It was a beginning, the start 4057 03:16:51,120 --> 03:16:55,681 of something much larger. The pattern 4058 03:16:53,920 --> 03:16:56,560 that emerged over the next 20 years. 4059 03:16:55,681 --> 03:16:59,120 [music] 4060 03:16:56,560 --> 03:17:01,680 PayPal veterans leave and start new 4061 03:16:59,120 --> 03:17:04,880 companies in different sectors. 4062 03:17:01,680 --> 03:17:07,760 Theel invests early as angel investor or 4063 03:17:04,880 --> 03:17:09,359 through founders fund. PayPal mafia 4064 03:17:07,760 --> 03:17:12,239 members join each other's [music] boards 4065 03:17:09,359 --> 03:17:14,000 of directors. Cross investment between 4066 03:17:12,239 --> 03:17:17,279 all their venture funds creates 4067 03:17:14,000 --> 03:17:20,319 alignment. Preferential access to deal 4068 03:17:17,279 --> 03:17:21,680 flow because of network relationships. 4069 03:17:20,319 --> 03:17:25,040 Shared [music] intelligence about 4070 03:17:21,680 --> 03:17:26,960 markets, technology, and opportunities. 4071 03:17:25,040 --> 03:17:30,479 Real examples of how the network 4072 03:17:26,960 --> 03:17:34,080 compounds. Reed Hoffman introduces Theel 4073 03:17:30,479 --> 03:17:38,080 to Mark Zuckerberg in 2004. 4074 03:17:34,080 --> 03:17:41,760 Theel invests $500,000 in Facebook, 4075 03:17:38,080 --> 03:17:44,960 eventually makes over $1 billion. 4076 03:17:41,760 --> 03:17:47,120 Roloff Botha joins Sequoia Capital and 4077 03:17:44,960 --> 03:17:49,600 invests in multiple Theelbacked 4078 03:17:47,120 --> 03:17:51,200 companies, creating reciprocal deal 4079 03:17:49,600 --> 03:17:53,120 flows. 4080 03:17:51,200 --> 03:17:55,040 David Saxs hosts high [music] dollar 4081 03:17:53,120 --> 03:17:58,000 fundraisers for Theo's political 4082 03:17:55,040 --> 03:18:01,000 candidates, mixing business and politics 4083 03:17:58,000 --> 03:18:01,000 seamlessly. 4084 03:18:01,120 --> 03:18:04,560 Max Levchim provides seed capital for 4085 03:18:03,760 --> 03:18:07,279 Palanteer [music] 4086 03:18:04,560 --> 03:18:09,279 and serves as advisor lending 4087 03:18:07,279 --> 03:18:11,520 credibility. 4088 03:18:09,279 --> 03:18:14,937 This network effect multiplier is 4089 03:18:11,520 --> 03:18:15,520 precisely how Theel turned $55 million 4090 03:18:14,937 --> 03:18:19,040 [music] 4091 03:18:15,520 --> 03:18:21,040 from PayPal into over $5 billion in net 4092 03:18:19,040 --> 03:18:24,399 worth today. 4093 03:18:21,040 --> 03:18:26,960 The PayPal mafia is not a cute nickname. 4094 03:18:24,399 --> 03:18:28,691 It is not a metaphor. It is the most 4095 03:18:26,960 --> 03:18:31,760 successful organized business cartel 4096 03:18:28,691 --> 03:18:33,920 [music] in Silicon Valley history. 4097 03:18:31,760 --> 03:18:36,239 A self-reinforcing [music] network of 4098 03:18:33,920 --> 03:18:38,479 wealth, power, and influence that has 4099 03:18:36,239 --> 03:18:40,319 shaped the entire technology industry 4100 03:18:38,479 --> 03:18:43,279 for two decades. [music] 4101 03:18:40,319 --> 03:18:47,399 And Peter Theal sits at the center of it 4102 03:18:43,279 --> 03:18:47,399 all. The Godfather. 4103 03:18:52,720 --> 03:18:57,439 After PayPal, Peter Theel was a man with 4104 03:18:55,680 --> 03:19:00,800 a billion [music] dollars and a 4105 03:18:57,439 --> 03:19:02,880 dangerous secret. While other investors 4106 03:19:00,800 --> 03:19:05,040 were looking at spreadsheets and profit 4107 03:19:02,880 --> 03:19:07,120 margins, Theel was looking [music] at 4108 03:19:05,040 --> 03:19:09,920 the human soul through the eyes of his 4109 03:19:07,120 --> 03:19:13,200 mentor, Renee Gerard. 4110 03:19:09,920 --> 03:19:16,640 Gerard taught him a terrifying truth. 4111 03:19:13,200 --> 03:19:19,760 Human beings don't know what they want. 4112 03:19:16,640 --> 03:19:22,479 We are mimemetic creatures. We don't 4113 03:19:19,760 --> 03:19:25,040 desire things for themselves. We desire 4114 03:19:22,479 --> 03:19:27,200 them because other people desire them. 4115 03:19:25,040 --> 03:19:30,479 We are copy machines disguised [music] 4116 03:19:27,200 --> 03:19:33,120 as individuals. 4117 03:19:30,479 --> 03:19:35,840 August 2004. 4118 03:19:33,120 --> 03:19:39,120 Facebook has been online for exactly 6 4119 03:19:35,840 --> 03:19:41,600 months. It started as a Harvard dorm 4120 03:19:39,120 --> 03:19:44,560 project and has now expanded to several 4121 03:19:41,600 --> 03:19:47,840 college campuses. 4122 03:19:44,560 --> 03:19:51,680 The metrics that Zuckerberg shows Theel 4123 03:19:47,840 --> 03:19:55,040 total registered users 200,000 4124 03:19:51,680 --> 03:19:58,640 almost entirely college students 4125 03:19:55,040 --> 03:20:00,239 daily active user rate 70 to [music] 80% 4126 03:19:58,640 --> 03:20:05,040 engagement 4127 03:20:00,239 --> 03:20:07,920 unprecedented in web services revenue $0 4128 03:20:05,040 --> 03:20:12,000 no business model yet valuation 4129 03:20:07,920 --> 03:20:13,840 Zuckerberg is asking for $5 million 4130 03:20:12,000 --> 03:20:16,399 every single professional venture 4131 03:20:13,840 --> 03:20:19,200 capitalist in Silicon Valley has passed 4132 03:20:16,399 --> 03:20:22,319 on Facebook. Every major firm has looked 4133 03:20:19,200 --> 03:20:25,680 into it and said no. The reasons they 4134 03:20:22,319 --> 03:20:29,359 gave it is just a college directory. 4135 03:20:25,680 --> 03:20:31,680 Limited market. Fster has already 5 4136 03:20:29,359 --> 03:20:34,640 million users and is the leader in 4137 03:20:31,680 --> 03:20:37,760 social networking. MySpace is dominant 4138 03:20:34,640 --> 03:20:40,160 with 8 million users and growing fast. 4139 03:20:37,760 --> 03:20:43,600 There is no obvious business model or 4140 03:20:40,160 --> 03:20:46,243 revenue stream. Mark Zuckerberg is too 4141 03:20:43,600 --> 03:20:49,359 young, too inexperienced, too risky 4142 03:20:46,243 --> 03:20:51,680 [music] as a founder. 4143 03:20:49,359 --> 03:20:54,239 Peter Theel saw something completely 4144 03:20:51,680 --> 03:20:56,399 different, something that had nothing to 4145 03:20:54,239 --> 03:20:58,800 do with technology. 4146 03:20:56,399 --> 03:21:01,840 Theel had spent years studying Renee 4147 03:20:58,800 --> 03:21:03,840 Gerard's mimemetic theory, the 4148 03:21:01,840 --> 03:21:07,200 philosophical framework that would shape 4149 03:21:03,840 --> 03:21:08,160 his entire investment approach. The core 4150 03:21:07,200 --> 03:21:11,520 idea, [music] 4151 03:21:08,160 --> 03:21:14,960 humans do not have original desires. 4152 03:21:11,520 --> 03:21:17,279 We desire what other people desire. We 4153 03:21:14,960 --> 03:21:21,920 learn what to want by watching other 4154 03:21:17,279 --> 03:21:26,319 people want. Desire is imitative. Desire 4155 03:21:21,920 --> 03:21:28,479 is social. Desire is mimemetic. 4156 03:21:26,319 --> 03:21:30,560 When Theel looked at Facebook, he did 4157 03:21:28,479 --> 03:21:33,279 not see a technology platform for 4158 03:21:30,560 --> 03:21:35,680 connecting friends. He saw something far 4159 03:21:33,279 --> 03:21:38,880 more powerful. He saw the perfect 4160 03:21:35,680 --> 03:21:41,920 mimemetic desire machine. The insight 4161 03:21:38,880 --> 03:21:43,439 that made Theel invest. Social networks 4162 03:21:41,920 --> 03:21:46,000 do not create [music] value by 4163 03:21:43,439 --> 03:21:49,279 connecting people. That is not where the 4164 03:21:46,000 --> 03:21:51,439 money is. The money is in comparison. 4165 03:21:49,279 --> 03:21:54,560 The money is in making people compare 4166 03:21:51,439 --> 03:21:56,319 themselves to each other constantly. 4167 03:21:54,560 --> 03:21:59,840 You see [music] your friend's vacation 4168 03:21:56,319 --> 03:22:01,359 photos, you want a better vacation. You 4169 03:21:59,840 --> 03:22:04,560 see someone's job promotion 4170 03:22:01,359 --> 03:22:07,120 announcement, you want higher status. 4171 03:22:04,560 --> 03:22:10,319 You see someone's relationship photos, 4172 03:22:07,120 --> 03:22:12,160 you want [music] romance. 4173 03:22:10,319 --> 03:22:15,439 You see someone getting likes and 4174 03:22:12,160 --> 03:22:18,319 comments, you want validation. 4175 03:22:15,439 --> 03:22:21,680 You see someone's perfect life, you feel 4176 03:22:18,319 --> 03:22:23,185 your own life is inadequate. 4177 03:22:21,680 --> 03:22:24,479 Facebook was not selling connections. 4178 03:22:23,185 --> 03:22:28,319 [music] 4179 03:22:24,479 --> 03:22:30,640 Facebook was selling envy. And envy, the 4180 03:22:28,319 --> 03:22:32,880 understood from Gerard is the most 4181 03:22:30,640 --> 03:22:34,160 powerful [music] economic force in human 4182 03:22:32,880 --> 03:22:37,359 history. 4183 03:22:34,160 --> 03:22:40,160 The desire for what others have. They 4184 03:22:37,359 --> 03:22:43,439 need to keep up. The fear of being left 4185 03:22:40,160 --> 03:22:46,880 behind. Infinite envy creates infinite 4186 03:22:43,439 --> 03:22:49,200 demand. Infinite demand creates infinite 4187 03:22:46,880 --> 03:22:51,680 value. 4188 03:22:49,200 --> 03:22:55,600 September 2004. 4189 03:22:51,680 --> 03:22:57,520 Peter Theal wires $500,000 to Facebook 4190 03:22:55,600 --> 03:23:01,760 incororated. 4191 03:22:57,520 --> 03:23:04,640 The deal terms 10.2% equity ownership in 4192 03:23:01,760 --> 03:23:06,399 the company. A board seat giving him 4193 03:23:04,640 --> 03:23:08,080 governance rights and inside 4194 03:23:06,399 --> 03:23:10,960 information. 4195 03:23:08,080 --> 03:23:14,319 Right of first refusal on all future 4196 03:23:10,960 --> 03:23:17,120 funding rounds. Post money valuation of 4197 03:23:14,319 --> 03:23:19,200 exactly $5 million. 4198 03:23:17,120 --> 03:23:22,479 Mark Zuckerberg's reaction after the 4199 03:23:19,200 --> 03:23:25,439 deal closed. This guy actually gets it. 4200 03:23:22,479 --> 03:23:28,479 He understands what we are building. 4201 03:23:25,439 --> 03:23:30,399 Silicon Valley's reaction. Peter Theal 4202 03:23:28,479 --> 03:23:33,520 just threw away half a million dollars 4203 03:23:30,399 --> 03:23:36,080 on a college kid's website. This will be 4204 03:23:33,520 --> 03:23:38,399 his biggest failure. 4205 03:23:36,080 --> 03:23:40,640 What happened next rewrote the history 4206 03:23:38,399 --> 03:23:46,000 of venture capital. 4207 03:23:40,640 --> 03:23:48,239 2004 end of year. 200,000 users grew to 4208 03:23:46,000 --> 03:23:52,319 1 million users. 4209 03:23:48,239 --> 03:23:55,840 Five times growth in 4 months. 2005 4210 03:23:52,319 --> 03:24:01,359 1 million users becomes 5.5 million 4211 03:23:55,840 --> 03:24:06,239 users. 2006 5.5 million users becomes 12 4212 03:24:01,359 --> 03:24:11,040 million users. 2007 12 million users 4213 03:24:06,239 --> 03:24:13,920 exploded to 50 million users. 2008 50 4214 03:24:11,040 --> 03:24:15,760 million users doubles to 100 million 4215 03:24:13,920 --> 03:24:17,359 users. 4216 03:24:15,760 --> 03:24:20,880 2009 4217 03:24:17,359 --> 03:24:24,239 100 million users becomes 350 million 4218 03:24:20,880 --> 03:24:27,439 users. growth rate. The user base was 4219 03:24:24,239 --> 03:24:29,760 doubling every 6 to9 months for five 4220 03:24:27,439 --> 03:24:32,319 consecutive years. 4221 03:24:29,760 --> 03:24:35,040 This growth curve had never been seen 4222 03:24:32,319 --> 03:24:38,560 before in business history. Not even 4223 03:24:35,040 --> 03:24:41,120 close. As Facebook grew, its valuation 4224 03:24:38,560 --> 03:24:43,359 grew and Peter Theel's stake grew with 4225 03:24:41,120 --> 03:24:45,520 it. 4226 03:24:43,359 --> 03:24:49,279 May 2005, 4227 03:24:45,520 --> 03:24:52,160 Axel Partners invests $12.7 million at 4228 03:24:49,279 --> 03:24:55,920 $100 million valuation. 4229 03:24:52,160 --> 03:24:59,439 Field's 10.2% stake is now worth $10.2 4230 03:24:55,920 --> 03:25:02,080 million. He has achieved 20 times return 4231 03:24:59,439 --> 03:25:05,600 in 9 months. 4232 03:25:02,080 --> 03:25:09,920 April 2006, Greylock Partners and 4233 03:25:05,600 --> 03:25:12,640 Meritech Capital invest $27.5 million at 4234 03:25:09,920 --> 03:25:16,080 $500 million valuation. 4235 03:25:12,640 --> 03:25:18,399 Theel stake is now worth $51 million, 4236 03:25:16,080 --> 03:25:20,160 100 times return on his original 4237 03:25:18,399 --> 03:25:22,560 investment. 4238 03:25:20,160 --> 03:25:27,120 October 2007, 4239 03:25:22,560 --> 03:25:30,800 Microsoft invests $240 million, valuing 4240 03:25:27,120 --> 03:25:35,200 Facebook at $15 billion. 4241 03:25:30,800 --> 03:25:39,760 The stake is now worth $1.5 billion, a 4242 03:25:35,200 --> 03:25:42,720 300,000 times return in 3 years. 4243 03:25:39,760 --> 03:25:45,120 2009 through 2011. 4244 03:25:42,720 --> 03:25:48,239 Multiple private sales and secondary 4245 03:25:45,120 --> 03:25:50,080 transactions value Facebook at $50 4246 03:25:48,239 --> 03:25:53,040 billion. 4247 03:25:50,080 --> 03:25:56,479 The stake, if he had held everything, 4248 03:25:53,040 --> 03:25:59,840 would be worth $5 billion. 4249 03:25:56,479 --> 03:26:02,239 May 18th, 2012, 4250 03:25:59,840 --> 03:26:07,120 Facebook goes public at a market 4251 03:26:02,239 --> 03:26:09,920 capitalization of $14 billion. 4252 03:26:07,120 --> 03:26:12,960 But the does not hold everything. He is 4253 03:26:09,920 --> 03:26:16,319 strategic. He is tactical. He takes 4254 03:26:12,960 --> 03:26:20,239 profits. At the initial public offering, 4255 03:26:16,319 --> 03:26:22,000 Theel sells $640 million worth of shares 4256 03:26:20,239 --> 03:26:24,319 immediately. 4257 03:26:22,000 --> 03:26:26,479 Over the following 6 months, he sells 4258 03:26:24,319 --> 03:26:28,800 the remainder of his stake in carefully 4259 03:26:26,479 --> 03:26:31,040 timed transactions. 4260 03:26:28,800 --> 03:26:35,760 Total cash realized from the Facebook 4261 03:26:31,040 --> 03:26:39,040 investment approximately $1 billion. 4262 03:26:35,760 --> 03:26:41,040 Initial investment in August 2004, 4263 03:26:39,040 --> 03:26:45,200 $500,000. 4264 03:26:41,040 --> 03:26:46,880 Total cash realized by end of 2012, $1 4265 03:26:45,200 --> 03:26:51,680 billion. 4266 03:26:46,880 --> 03:26:53,600 Total return, 2,000 times in 8 years. 4267 03:26:51,680 --> 03:26:56,479 This is the single greatest venture 4268 03:26:53,600 --> 03:26:59,200 capital return in recorded history. 4269 03:26:56,479 --> 03:27:02,399 Nothing else [music] comes close. But 4270 03:26:59,200 --> 03:27:04,800 here is the twist. The haunting decision 4271 03:27:02,399 --> 03:27:07,760 that Theel [music] himself admits keeps 4272 03:27:04,800 --> 03:27:09,279 him awake at night. Selling was a 4273 03:27:07,760 --> 03:27:12,000 mistake. 4274 03:27:09,279 --> 03:27:15,318 If Peter Theal had held his original 4275 03:27:12,000 --> 03:27:17,600 10.2% stake and had never sold a single 4276 03:27:15,318 --> 03:27:21,520 [music] share, that stake at Facebook's 4277 03:27:17,600 --> 03:27:25,439 peak market capitalization in 2021 would 4278 03:27:21,520 --> 03:27:28,640 have been worth 102 billion. 4279 03:27:25,439 --> 03:27:31,680 $12 billion. 4280 03:27:28,640 --> 03:27:33,840 He left $100 billion on the table by 4281 03:27:31,680 --> 03:27:35,439 selling early. 4282 03:27:33,840 --> 03:27:38,000 The himself admitted [music] this 4283 03:27:35,439 --> 03:27:40,800 publicly saying, "The mistake was not 4284 03:27:38,000 --> 03:27:42,880 investing in Facebook. The mistake was 4285 03:27:40,800 --> 03:27:45,600 selling Facebook. [music] 4286 03:27:42,880 --> 03:27:48,160 I should have held longer. I should have 4287 03:27:45,600 --> 03:27:52,800 believed more. It is the single most 4288 03:27:48,160 --> 03:27:54,880 expensive decision of his life." Years 4289 03:27:52,800 --> 03:27:57,120 later in [music] a Stanford lecture, 4290 03:27:54,880 --> 03:28:01,359 Theel explained his actual investment 4291 03:27:57,120 --> 03:28:02,960 thesis, the real reason he invested. I 4292 03:28:01,359 --> 03:28:04,880 did not [music] invest in Facebook 4293 03:28:02,960 --> 03:28:07,600 because I thought social networks were 4294 03:28:04,880 --> 03:28:09,279 going to be big. I invested because I 4295 03:28:07,600 --> 03:28:12,080 understood that humans will [music] 4296 03:28:09,279 --> 03:28:15,760 always want to be more like their peers. 4297 03:28:12,080 --> 03:28:18,239 That desire is infinite. It never stops. 4298 03:28:15,760 --> 03:28:20,180 It only intensifies. 4299 03:28:18,239 --> 03:28:20,800 An infinite desire creates infinite 4300 03:28:20,180 --> 03:28:24,399 [music] 4301 03:28:20,800 --> 03:28:25,920 value. The mimemetic theory made him a 4302 03:28:24,399 --> 03:28:28,160 billionaire. 4303 03:28:25,920 --> 03:28:30,239 The mimemetic theory also made him 4304 03:28:28,160 --> 03:28:31,760 terrified [music] of what he had helped 4305 03:28:30,239 --> 03:28:35,120 create. 4306 03:28:31,760 --> 03:28:37,200 A machine that weaponizes human envy. A 4307 03:28:35,120 --> 03:28:39,520 system that profits from [music] making 4308 03:28:37,200 --> 03:28:42,160 people feel inadequate. 4309 03:28:39,520 --> 03:28:44,720 An algorithm that amplifies the worst 4310 03:28:42,160 --> 03:28:46,960 aspects of human nature. 4311 03:28:44,720 --> 03:28:49,840 Peter Theal helped build the most 4312 03:28:46,960 --> 03:28:53,359 powerful behavior modification system in 4313 03:28:49,840 --> 03:28:57,239 human history. And then he cashed out 4314 03:28:53,359 --> 03:28:57,239 for a billion dollars. 4315 03:29:03,600 --> 03:29:08,479 2003 [music] 4316 03:29:05,120 --> 03:29:11,120 Peter Theel has a problem. It is the 4317 03:29:08,479 --> 03:29:14,560 CIA's problem, but they think [music] 4318 03:29:11,120 --> 03:29:17,359 the can solve it. His PayPal anti-fraud 4319 03:29:14,560 --> 03:29:19,680 algorithms have become so sophisticated 4320 03:29:17,359 --> 03:29:22,080 at detecting patterns in financial 4321 03:29:19,680 --> 03:29:23,699 transactions at finding terrorists 4322 03:29:22,080 --> 03:29:24,239 trying to move money through banking 4323 03:29:23,699 --> 03:29:28,000 [music] 4324 03:29:24,239 --> 03:29:31,920 systems that the CIA venture capital arm 4325 03:29:28,000 --> 03:29:34,800 in QEL requested a meeting. The pitch 4326 03:29:31,920 --> 03:29:37,520 from the CIA, can you build what you 4327 03:29:34,800 --> 03:29:40,479 built for PayPal but for national 4328 03:29:37,520 --> 03:29:43,200 security? Can you find terrorists the 4329 03:29:40,479 --> 03:29:45,120 way you found fraudsters? 4330 03:29:43,200 --> 03:29:47,520 May 2003. 4331 03:29:45,120 --> 03:29:49,920 Peter Theel co-founds Palunteer 4332 03:29:47,520 --> 03:29:51,520 Technologies with an unusual group of 4333 03:29:49,920 --> 03:29:54,479 co-founders. 4334 03:29:51,520 --> 03:29:57,920 The founding team, Alex Karp, chief 4335 03:29:54,479 --> 03:30:00,960 executive officer. Stanford law degree 4336 03:29:57,920 --> 03:30:03,680 philosophy PhD from Frankfurt University 4337 03:30:00,960 --> 03:30:07,120 in Germany. Former human rights lawyer 4338 03:30:03,680 --> 03:30:09,680 who once worked on refugee cases. 4339 03:30:07,120 --> 03:30:11,680 an extremely odd choice to run a company 4340 03:30:09,680 --> 03:30:13,840 that will become the most powerful 4341 03:30:11,680 --> 03:30:15,359 surveillance technology provider on 4342 03:30:13,840 --> 03:30:18,000 Earth. 4343 03:30:15,359 --> 03:30:21,040 Nathan Gettings, chief technology 4344 03:30:18,000 --> 03:30:24,000 officer. PayPal's lead security 4345 03:30:21,040 --> 03:30:26,960 engineer. Brilliant programmer. Joe 4346 03:30:24,000 --> 03:30:29,920 Lndale, a Stanford undergraduate 4347 03:30:26,960 --> 03:30:33,520 student, barely 20 years old, one of the 4348 03:30:29,920 --> 03:30:36,640 first Theel fellows. Steven Cohen, 4349 03:30:33,520 --> 03:30:38,479 PayPal's chief security architect. the 4350 03:30:36,640 --> 03:30:41,439 person who actually built the fraud 4351 03:30:38,479 --> 03:30:43,200 detection algorithms. Initial funding, 4352 03:30:41,439 --> 03:30:45,359 $2 million, 4353 03:30:43,200 --> 03:30:48,960 entirely from Peter Theel's personal 4354 03:30:45,359 --> 03:30:51,120 capital. No outside investors yet. This 4355 03:30:48,960 --> 03:30:53,760 is his project. 4356 03:30:51,120 --> 03:30:56,399 The mission statement, build software 4357 03:30:53,760 --> 03:30:58,880 that can find patterns in massive data 4358 03:30:56,399 --> 03:31:00,880 sets from disperate, incompatible 4359 03:30:58,880 --> 03:31:03,920 sources. 4360 03:31:00,880 --> 03:31:06,239 The kind of data that if intelligency 4361 03:31:03,920 --> 03:31:09,200 agencies had been able to analyze it 4362 03:31:06,239 --> 03:31:12,160 properly could have prevented September 4363 03:31:09,200 --> 03:31:15,120 11th, 2001. 4364 03:31:12,160 --> 03:31:17,359 The company name Palunteer 4365 03:31:15,120 --> 03:31:19,920 named after the seeing stones in Lord of 4366 03:31:17,359 --> 03:31:21,760 the Rings, the magical orbs that allow 4367 03:31:19,920 --> 03:31:24,720 their possessors to see anything 4368 03:31:21,760 --> 03:31:27,840 happening anywhere in Middle Earth. Even 4369 03:31:24,720 --> 03:31:30,239 the name revealed the ambition total 4370 03:31:27,840 --> 03:31:35,080 information awareness. 4371 03:31:30,239 --> 03:31:35,080 the ability to see everything. 4372 03:31:35,279 --> 03:31:40,399 2005, 4373 03:31:36,800 --> 03:31:42,800 the CIA's venture capital arm in CQEL 4374 03:31:40,399 --> 03:31:45,920 invest [music] $2 million in Palanteer's 4375 03:31:42,800 --> 03:31:48,880 series A funding round. This was not 4376 03:31:45,920 --> 03:31:51,680 just money. This was validation from the 4377 03:31:48,880 --> 03:31:54,080 intelligence community, a stamp of 4378 03:31:51,680 --> 03:31:56,560 approval from the most secretive, most 4379 03:31:54,080 --> 03:31:58,239 paranoid organization in the US 4380 03:31:56,560 --> 03:32:02,000 government. 4381 03:31:58,239 --> 03:32:04,160 Initial contract value undisclosed. 4382 03:32:02,000 --> 03:32:07,439 Government intelligence contracts are 4383 03:32:04,160 --> 03:32:10,160 classified by law, but industry analysts 4384 03:32:07,439 --> 03:32:13,920 estimate the first CIA contracts were 4385 03:32:10,160 --> 03:32:17,040 worth 5 to 10 million annually. The 4386 03:32:13,920 --> 03:32:20,239 product was called Palunteer Gotham. The 4387 03:32:17,040 --> 03:32:23,439 name itself was significant. Gotham, the 4388 03:32:20,239 --> 03:32:26,399 dark city that needs Batman. The city 4389 03:32:23,439 --> 03:32:28,960 that needs surveillance to fight crime. 4390 03:32:26,399 --> 03:32:30,960 Core technical capabilities. 4391 03:32:28,960 --> 03:32:33,680 Integrate data from dozens of 4392 03:32:30,960 --> 03:32:35,680 incompatible government databases that 4393 03:32:33,680 --> 03:32:38,399 were never designed to communicate with 4394 03:32:35,680 --> 03:32:41,040 each other. From hidden connections 4395 03:32:38,399 --> 03:32:44,960 between people, places, financial 4396 03:32:41,040 --> 03:32:47,600 transactions, communications metadata, 4397 03:32:44,960 --> 03:32:49,920 visualize networks of relationships in 4398 03:32:47,600 --> 03:32:51,840 ways human analysts could understand 4399 03:32:49,920 --> 03:32:54,160 intuitively. 4400 03:32:51,840 --> 03:32:56,399 Predict future behavior and likely 4401 03:32:54,160 --> 03:32:59,359 attack patterns based on historical 4402 03:32:56,399 --> 03:33:02,239 data. Specific use cases for 4403 03:32:59,359 --> 03:33:05,200 intelligence agencies. Track terrorist 4404 03:33:02,239 --> 03:33:07,200 cells across multiple countries. Map 4405 03:33:05,200 --> 03:33:09,359 drug trafficking routes from production 4406 03:33:07,200 --> 03:33:11,520 to distribution. 4407 03:33:09,359 --> 03:33:14,560 Identify money laundering networks 4408 03:33:11,520 --> 03:33:16,399 moving funds for organized crime. 4409 03:33:14,560 --> 03:33:19,200 Predict [music] insurgent attacks in 4410 03:33:16,399 --> 03:33:22,880 Iraq and Afghanistan based on pattern 4411 03:33:19,200 --> 03:33:26,640 recognition. It worked. The software 4412 03:33:22,880 --> 03:33:29,760 actually worked. By 2006, Palanteer 4413 03:33:26,640 --> 03:33:32,000 software was being actively used in Iraq 4414 03:33:29,760 --> 03:33:36,319 for [music] counterinsurgency operations 4415 03:33:32,000 --> 03:33:38,560 and in IED attack prediction. 4416 03:33:36,319 --> 03:33:41,520 Afghanistan for predicting Taliban 4417 03:33:38,560 --> 03:33:45,120 leadership networks. Langley, Virginia 4418 03:33:41,520 --> 03:33:47,840 at CIA headquarters for threat analysis. 4419 03:33:45,120 --> 03:33:52,040 FBI field officers nationwide for 4420 03:33:47,840 --> 03:33:52,040 domestic terrorism investigation. 4421 03:33:52,080 --> 03:33:58,239 Early revenue growth told the story of 4422 03:33:54,239 --> 03:34:01,040 Palunteers expanding reach. 2005 4423 03:33:58,239 --> 03:34:07,359 $3 billion in revenue. Government 4424 03:34:01,040 --> 03:34:12,800 contracts only. 2006 $10 million. 2007 4425 03:34:07,359 --> 03:34:17,439 $25 million. 2008 $50 million. First 4426 03:34:12,800 --> 03:34:23,920 commercial clients added 2010 $150 4427 03:34:17,439 --> 03:34:25,680 million. 2012 $400 million. By 2012, 4428 03:34:23,920 --> 03:34:27,840 Palanteer had achieved something 4429 03:34:25,680 --> 03:34:31,520 extremely rare for a high- growth 4430 03:34:27,840 --> 03:34:33,760 technology company. Profitability. 4431 03:34:31,520 --> 03:34:36,720 They were actually making money, not 4432 03:34:33,760 --> 03:34:39,840 just burning venture capital. Customer 4433 03:34:36,720 --> 03:34:43,840 revenue breakdown in 2012. 4434 03:34:39,840 --> 03:34:46,399 Government contracts, 60% of revenue, 4435 03:34:43,840 --> 03:34:50,880 $240 million. 4436 03:34:46,399 --> 03:34:53,600 Commercial clients, 40% of revenue, $160 4437 03:34:50,880 --> 03:34:57,600 million. 4438 03:34:53,600 --> 03:34:59,920 May the 1st, 2011. Palanteer Software 4439 03:34:57,600 --> 03:35:03,200 plays a role in the operation that kills 4440 03:34:59,920 --> 03:35:05,439 Osama bin Laden. A role that remains 4441 03:35:03,200 --> 03:35:08,640 partially classified, but has been 4442 03:35:05,439 --> 03:35:11,359 confirmed by multiple [music] sources. 4443 03:35:08,640 --> 03:35:13,680 How Palanteer contributed. Palanteer 4444 03:35:11,359 --> 03:35:16,080 Gotham integrated dozens of different 4445 03:35:13,680 --> 03:35:18,560 intelligence sources. 4446 03:35:16,080 --> 03:35:21,680 CIA human intelligence on career 4447 03:35:18,560 --> 03:35:23,840 networks. NSA signal intelligence 4448 03:35:21,680 --> 03:35:27,120 including [music] phone metadata and 4449 03:35:23,840 --> 03:35:30,319 email communications patterns. 4450 03:35:27,120 --> 03:35:33,120 National Geospatial Intelligence Agency 4451 03:35:30,319 --> 03:35:34,640 satellite imagery of potential compound 4452 03:35:33,120 --> 03:35:37,120 locations. 4453 03:35:34,640 --> 03:35:39,120 historical pattern analysis of previous 4454 03:35:37,120 --> 03:35:41,920 highv value target operations in 4455 03:35:39,120 --> 03:35:44,000 Pakistan. 4456 03:35:41,920 --> 03:35:46,319 The system identified patterns and 4457 03:35:44,000 --> 03:35:48,800 connections that human analysts working 4458 03:35:46,319 --> 03:35:52,080 with separate databases that did not 4459 03:35:48,800 --> 03:35:54,239 communicate had missed. It narrowed the 4460 03:35:52,080 --> 03:35:58,720 search area and helped confirm the 4461 03:35:54,239 --> 03:36:00,800 identity of the Abotabad compound. 4462 03:35:58,720 --> 03:36:03,760 When asked about Palanteer's role in the 4463 03:36:00,800 --> 03:36:07,040 bin Laden operation, Theo gave carefully 4464 03:36:03,760 --> 03:36:09,840 worded response. I cannot comment on 4465 03:36:07,040 --> 03:36:12,800 specific operations or specific clients 4466 03:36:09,840 --> 03:36:16,479 due to classification requirements, but 4467 03:36:12,800 --> 03:36:18,720 I will say this. Tools that help protect 4468 03:36:16,479 --> 03:36:21,840 American lives and help intelligence 4469 03:36:18,720 --> 03:36:25,279 professionals do their jobs better. That 4470 03:36:21,840 --> 03:36:27,520 is our mission. 4471 03:36:25,279 --> 03:36:29,920 This single operation, this single 4472 03:36:27,520 --> 03:36:32,479 success legitimized Palanteer's [music] 4473 03:36:29,920 --> 03:36:34,880 entire value proposition to the national 4474 03:36:32,479 --> 03:36:37,760 security establishment. 4475 03:36:34,880 --> 03:36:40,239 After bin Laden, the contracts poured 4476 03:36:37,760 --> 03:36:42,960 in. 4477 03:36:40,239 --> 03:36:45,920 After the bin Laden success, Palanteer's 4478 03:36:42,960 --> 03:36:50,479 government business exploded. Revenue 4479 03:36:45,920 --> 03:36:55,840 growth from 2012 to 2015. 4480 03:36:50,479 --> 03:36:59,279 2012, $400 million in revenue. 2013, 4481 03:36:55,840 --> 03:37:04,720 $600 million. 2014, 4482 03:36:59,279 --> 03:37:07,760 $900 million. 2015, $1.5 billion in 4483 03:37:04,720 --> 03:37:10,760 revenue. Major new contracts announced 4484 03:37:07,760 --> 03:37:10,760 publicly. 4485 03:37:12,160 --> 03:37:19,600 US Department of Defense, $222 million 4486 03:37:16,720 --> 03:37:21,359 for a 3-year data integration platform 4487 03:37:19,600 --> 03:37:25,359 contract. 4488 03:37:21,359 --> 03:37:27,750 US Army, $800 million for comprehensive 4489 03:37:25,359 --> 03:37:30,640 data platform modernization across 4490 03:37:27,750 --> 03:37:34,800 [music] all Army systems, 4491 03:37:30,640 --> 03:37:37,439 US Special Operations Command, $444 4492 03:37:34,800 --> 03:37:39,200 million for targeting and intelligence 4493 03:37:37,439 --> 03:37:42,720 fusion, 4494 03:37:39,200 --> 03:37:45,040 Department of Homeland Security, $240 4495 03:37:42,720 --> 03:37:48,160 million for border security and 4496 03:37:45,040 --> 03:37:50,560 immigration enforcement systems. 4497 03:37:48,160 --> 03:37:53,200 Palanteer had become the single most 4498 03:37:50,560 --> 03:37:55,040 important software company in the entire 4499 03:37:53,200 --> 03:37:56,640 US defense and intelligence 4500 03:37:55,040 --> 03:37:58,960 establishment, 4501 03:37:56,640 --> 03:38:02,080 more important than traditional defense 4502 03:37:58,960 --> 03:38:04,160 contractors, more embedded in classified 4503 03:38:02,080 --> 03:38:06,720 operations. 4504 03:38:04,160 --> 03:38:08,360 Simultaneously, Palanteer launched a 4505 03:38:06,720 --> 03:38:10,720 commercial product called Palunteer 4506 03:38:08,360 --> 03:38:13,439 [music] Foundry for private sector 4507 03:38:10,720 --> 03:38:16,399 clients. The sales pitch to corporate 4508 03:38:13,439 --> 03:38:20,399 America. Your company has exactly the 4509 03:38:16,399 --> 03:38:23,279 same problem as the CIA. Too much data, 4510 03:38:20,399 --> 03:38:26,000 too many incompatible systems, not 4511 03:38:23,279 --> 03:38:28,640 enough insight. We can help you find the 4512 03:38:26,000 --> 03:38:30,800 patterns you are missing. Major 4513 03:38:28,640 --> 03:38:34,319 commercial clients and estimated 4514 03:38:30,800 --> 03:38:39,200 contract values. 4515 03:38:34,319 --> 03:38:40,960 JP Morgan Chase over $100 million fraud 4516 03:38:39,200 --> 03:38:44,319 detection and financial crime 4517 03:38:40,960 --> 03:38:47,200 prevention. Morgan Stanley over $50 4518 03:38:44,319 --> 03:38:52,000 million risk management and regulatory 4519 03:38:47,200 --> 03:38:54,160 compliance. Airbus over $75 million 4520 03:38:52,000 --> 03:38:56,880 supply chain optimization and 4521 03:38:54,160 --> 03:39:01,040 manufacturing analytics. 4522 03:38:56,880 --> 03:39:03,680 Merc Pharmaceuticals over $60 million 4523 03:39:01,040 --> 03:39:06,560 drug discovery analytics and clinical 4524 03:39:03,680 --> 03:39:11,120 trial data integration. 4525 03:39:06,560 --> 03:39:14,960 BP over $80 million oil field production 4526 03:39:11,120 --> 03:39:18,239 optimization and predictive maintenance. 4527 03:39:14,960 --> 03:39:20,080 Commercial revenue growth from 2015 to 4528 03:39:18,239 --> 03:39:23,359 2020. [music] 4529 03:39:20,080 --> 03:39:26,880 In 2015, they got $600 million 4530 03:39:23,359 --> 03:39:29,840 commercial [music] revenue. By 2016, the 4531 03:39:26,880 --> 03:39:33,680 number was around $800 billion. 4532 03:39:29,840 --> 03:39:35,920 In 2017, they reached $1.1 billion in 4533 03:39:33,680 --> 03:39:40,800 commercial revenue, and it became their 4534 03:39:35,920 --> 03:39:43,840 peak year. 2018 made them hit the $750 4535 03:39:40,800 --> 03:39:47,319 million mark, a temporary decline due to 4536 03:39:43,840 --> 03:39:47,319 customer churn. 4537 03:39:47,359 --> 03:39:53,120 In 2019, revenue was around $745 4538 03:39:51,520 --> 03:39:57,040 million, 4539 03:39:53,120 --> 03:40:01,040 and by 2020, they reached $1.1 billion. 4540 03:39:57,040 --> 03:40:04,160 Again, this recovery was driven by COVID 4541 03:40:01,040 --> 03:40:06,319 analytics contracts. Palanteer had 4542 03:40:04,160 --> 03:40:09,680 created a business model with two 4543 03:40:06,319 --> 03:40:11,520 enormous locked in customer bases, the 4544 03:40:09,680 --> 03:40:15,720 US government and the largest 4545 03:40:11,520 --> 03:40:15,720 corporations in the world. 4546 03:40:17,279 --> 03:40:22,399 But Palanteer's work, especially for 4547 03:40:19,600 --> 03:40:25,840 government agencies, attracted intense 4548 03:40:22,399 --> 03:40:28,800 controversy and moral criticism. 4549 03:40:25,840 --> 03:40:32,880 In 2019, they secured a contract with 4550 03:40:28,800 --> 03:40:35,439 ICE for $49 million. The purpose of the 4551 03:40:32,880 --> 03:40:37,840 contract was enforcement and removal 4552 03:40:35,439 --> 03:40:40,720 operations systems, 4553 03:40:37,840 --> 03:40:43,200 meaning a software used to identify, 4554 03:40:40,720 --> 03:40:46,000 track, and process undocumented 4555 03:40:43,200 --> 03:40:48,160 immigrants for deportation. 4556 03:40:46,000 --> 03:40:50,803 This project came with a controversy 4557 03:40:48,160 --> 03:40:52,800 attached. The software was used during 4558 03:40:50,803 --> 03:40:55,520 [music] the family separation policy at 4559 03:40:52,800 --> 03:40:59,120 the southern border. Children separated 4560 03:40:55,520 --> 03:41:01,279 from their parents, families torn apart. 4561 03:40:59,120 --> 03:41:04,000 Palanteer Software helped make it 4562 03:41:01,279 --> 03:41:06,080 operationally possible. Hundreds of 4563 03:41:04,000 --> 03:41:08,239 Palunteer employees signed an [music] 4564 03:41:06,080 --> 03:41:12,160 internal letter demanding the company 4565 03:41:08,239 --> 03:41:14,399 cancel the ICE contract. 4566 03:41:12,160 --> 03:41:17,439 They argued the company was enabling 4567 03:41:14,399 --> 03:41:21,200 human rights abuses. The Karp's 4568 03:41:17,439 --> 03:41:23,200 response, absolute refusal. The contract 4569 03:41:21,200 --> 03:41:25,840 would continue. 4570 03:41:23,200 --> 03:41:28,080 Alex Cart gave a public statement saying 4571 03:41:25,840 --> 03:41:31,680 that they had chosen sides and that the 4572 03:41:28,080 --> 03:41:34,080 company supported American institutions. 4573 03:41:31,680 --> 03:41:37,439 But this was not the only controversy 4574 03:41:34,080 --> 03:41:40,000 Palunteer has faced. Palanteer worked 4575 03:41:37,439 --> 03:41:42,960 alongside [music] the NYPD with a 4576 03:41:40,000 --> 03:41:47,920 contract estimated between 50 and $100 4577 03:41:42,960 --> 03:41:50,239 billion. The mission predictive policy. 4578 03:41:47,920 --> 03:41:52,880 They were asked to use historical crime 4579 03:41:50,239 --> 03:41:55,760 data to predict where future crimes will 4580 03:41:52,880 --> 03:41:58,479 occur and who is likely to commit them. 4581 03:41:55,760 --> 03:42:01,359 The controversy civil rights groups 4582 03:41:58,479 --> 03:42:04,160 argued that system perpetuated racial 4583 03:42:01,359 --> 03:42:07,120 bias. Minority neighborhoods were 4584 03:42:04,160 --> 03:42:09,359 flagged as high risk. Innocent people 4585 03:42:07,120 --> 03:42:12,640 were put under surveillance based on 4586 03:42:09,359 --> 03:42:16,239 algorithmic predictions. 4587 03:42:12,640 --> 03:42:18,720 Joe Londale, Palunteer co-founder, had 4588 03:42:16,239 --> 03:42:20,319 made a personal investment in Cambridge 4589 03:42:18,720 --> 03:42:22,720 Analytica. 4590 03:42:20,319 --> 03:42:25,120 Multiple Palanteer employees on their 4591 03:42:22,720 --> 03:42:29,640 own time helped Cambridge Analytica 4592 03:42:25,120 --> 03:42:29,640 build data integration models. 4593 03:42:29,760 --> 03:42:34,800 Both companies use similar approaches to 4594 03:42:32,479 --> 03:42:36,399 data harvesting and psychological 4595 03:42:34,800 --> 03:42:38,239 profiling. 4596 03:42:36,399 --> 03:42:41,040 When the connection was exposed by 4597 03:42:38,239 --> 03:42:44,080 journalists, Palanteer claimed there was 4598 03:42:41,040 --> 03:42:47,439 no institutional relationship, just 4599 03:42:44,080 --> 03:42:49,120 coincidental personal connections. 4600 03:42:47,439 --> 03:42:52,080 But the damage [music] to Palanteer's 4601 03:42:49,120 --> 03:42:53,840 reputation was done. The had built the 4602 03:42:52,080 --> 03:42:56,160 panopticon. 4603 03:42:53,840 --> 03:42:58,640 The allseeing eye of corporate and 4604 03:42:56,160 --> 03:43:02,080 government surveillance. 4605 03:42:58,640 --> 03:43:05,279 September the 30th, 2020. 4606 03:43:02,080 --> 03:43:07,200 After 17 years as a private company, one 4607 03:43:05,279 --> 03:43:09,920 of the longest periods of private 4608 03:43:07,200 --> 03:43:12,880 operation for any major tech company, 4609 03:43:09,920 --> 03:43:15,920 Palanteer finally goes public through a 4610 03:43:12,880 --> 03:43:18,800 direct listing. 4611 03:43:15,920 --> 03:43:21,680 They went public at $10 per share and 4612 03:43:18,800 --> 03:43:25,279 their market capitalization at market 4613 03:43:21,680 --> 03:43:28,640 open was $16 billion. 4614 03:43:25,279 --> 03:43:30,560 By the first day, shares were down 5%. 4615 03:43:28,640 --> 03:43:32,080 The stock was initially a 4616 03:43:30,560 --> 03:43:34,160 disappointment. 4617 03:43:32,080 --> 03:43:36,160 Investors were skeptical of the business 4618 03:43:34,160 --> 03:43:38,800 model, worried about customer 4619 03:43:36,160 --> 03:43:40,880 concentration, concerned about the 4620 03:43:38,800 --> 03:43:44,000 controversy. 4621 03:43:40,880 --> 03:43:47,040 But then COVID 19 created massive new 4622 03:43:44,000 --> 03:43:50,960 demand for Palanteer's capabilities. 4623 03:43:47,040 --> 03:43:53,359 2020 to 2021, Palanteer wins enormous 4624 03:43:50,960 --> 03:43:56,560 pandemic related government contracts 4625 03:43:53,359 --> 03:43:58,640 with governments across the world. The 4626 03:43:56,560 --> 03:44:01,920 pandemic proved that governments needed 4627 03:43:58,640 --> 03:44:04,960 Palanteer and the market responded. 4628 03:44:01,920 --> 03:44:10,880 By late 2021, Palanteer stock had 4629 03:44:04,960 --> 03:44:13,359 exploded. $29 per share at 190% gain 4630 03:44:10,880 --> 03:44:15,040 from the direct listing price. Market 4631 03:44:13,359 --> 03:44:18,600 capitalization 4632 03:44:15,040 --> 03:44:18,600 $60 billion. 4633 03:44:19,760 --> 03:44:26,720 Peter Theal stake approximately 7% 4634 03:44:23,359 --> 03:44:30,640 ownership worth 4.2 2 billion at the 4635 03:44:26,720 --> 03:44:33,760 peak. 2022, the tech crash hits 4636 03:44:30,640 --> 03:44:37,760 Palanteer brutally hard. Stock prices 4637 03:44:33,760 --> 03:44:40,960 crash to $6 per share, down 8% from the 4638 03:44:37,760 --> 03:44:43,120 peak. Market cap collapses to $13 4639 03:44:40,960 --> 03:44:45,199 billion. 4640 03:44:43,120 --> 03:44:51,040 The paper wealth from Palanteer 4641 03:44:45,199 --> 03:44:54,399 evaporates. Billions gone. 2023 to 2024, 4642 03:44:51,040 --> 03:44:56,800 the AI boom creates new opportunity. 4643 03:44:54,399 --> 03:44:59,760 Palanteer markets itself as the AI 4644 03:44:56,800 --> 03:45:02,720 platform for governments and enterprises 4645 03:44:59,760 --> 03:45:07,439 and they get major new contract wins. 4646 03:45:02,720 --> 03:45:09,199 The US Army invested $463 million for AI 4647 03:45:07,439 --> 03:45:12,479 powered battlefield analytics [music] 4648 03:45:09,199 --> 03:45:14,960 and decision support systems. 4649 03:45:12,479 --> 03:45:19,680 Palanteer stock recovered 4650 03:45:14,960 --> 03:45:22,319 25 to 30 per share by 2024. 4651 03:45:19,680 --> 03:45:25,279 As of 2024, Peter Theel's current 4652 03:45:22,319 --> 03:45:27,760 Palanteer holdings are approximately 7% 4653 03:45:25,279 --> 03:45:31,840 of all shares with a current value 4654 03:45:27,760 --> 03:45:36,439 ranging from 3.8 to $4.5 billion 4655 03:45:31,840 --> 03:45:36,439 depending on daily stock price. 4656 03:45:38,080 --> 03:45:44,640 This makes Palunteer Field's single 4657 03:45:41,199 --> 03:45:47,920 largest source of personal wealth. In 4658 03:45:44,640 --> 03:45:50,000 2024, Palanteer's financial performance 4659 03:45:47,920 --> 03:45:52,800 was divided between government and 4660 03:45:50,000 --> 03:45:57,600 commercial revenue. The company's net 4661 03:45:52,800 --> 03:45:59,439 income was $2.5 billion annually. And as 4662 03:45:57,600 --> 03:46:01,359 big as the number is, this might 4663 03:45:59,439 --> 03:46:03,840 represent a future problem for the 4664 03:46:01,359 --> 03:46:06,000 company. If government budget cuts 4665 03:46:03,840 --> 03:46:07,520 happen, Palanteer is extremely 4666 03:46:06,000 --> 03:46:09,760 vulnerable. 4667 03:46:07,520 --> 03:46:13,359 Their entire business model depends on 4668 03:46:09,760 --> 03:46:16,560 continued government spending. Here is 4669 03:46:13,359 --> 03:46:18,160 Peter Theel's fundamental contradiction. 4670 03:46:16,560 --> 03:46:20,319 The paradox at the [music] heart of 4671 03:46:18,160 --> 03:46:22,800 everything he has built. He claims to be 4672 03:46:20,319 --> 03:46:26,000 a libertarian who values individual 4673 03:46:22,800 --> 03:46:27,680 freedom above all else. A man who 4674 03:46:26,000 --> 03:46:30,080 believes government power should be 4675 03:46:27,680 --> 03:46:33,279 minimal. A man who wrote that freedom 4676 03:46:30,080 --> 03:46:35,840 and democracy are incompatible. 4677 03:46:33,279 --> 03:46:38,560 Yet, he built the most powerful private 4678 03:46:35,840 --> 03:46:41,279 surveillance technology company in human 4679 03:46:38,560 --> 03:46:43,040 history. A company that gives [music] 4680 03:46:41,279 --> 03:46:46,479 governments and corporations 4681 03:46:43,040 --> 03:46:48,437 unprecedented ability to monitor, track, 4682 03:46:46,479 --> 03:46:49,760 predict, and control human behavior. 4683 03:46:48,437 --> 03:46:52,239 [music] 4684 03:46:49,760 --> 03:46:55,120 Palunteers technical capabilities 4685 03:46:52,239 --> 03:46:57,520 include realtime tracking of individuals 4686 03:46:55,120 --> 03:47:00,520 across multiple data sources and 4687 03:46:57,520 --> 03:47:00,520 databases. 4688 03:47:01,120 --> 03:47:05,760 Predictive behavioral modeling that 4689 03:47:03,760 --> 03:47:09,040 forecasts what people will do before 4690 03:47:05,760 --> 03:47:10,800 they do it. Network analysis that maps 4691 03:47:09,040 --> 03:47:14,239 every [music] person you have ever 4692 03:47:10,800 --> 03:47:15,760 contacted through any medium. Complete 4693 03:47:14,239 --> 03:47:18,880 integration of financial [music] 4694 03:47:15,760 --> 03:47:21,199 records, communication metadata, 4695 03:47:18,880 --> 03:47:24,399 location history, and social 4696 03:47:21,199 --> 03:47:26,319 relationship data into a single unified 4697 03:47:24,399 --> 03:47:28,880 profile. [music] 4698 03:47:26,319 --> 03:47:31,012 Field's defense of this contradiction 4699 03:47:28,880 --> 03:47:33,359 was explaining that the alternative to 4700 03:47:31,012 --> 03:47:35,439 [music] Palanteer is not no 4701 03:47:33,359 --> 03:47:38,000 surveillance. 4702 03:47:35,439 --> 03:47:40,239 The alternative is worse surveillance 4703 03:47:38,000 --> 03:47:43,279 performed by incompetent government 4704 03:47:40,239 --> 03:47:47,319 bureaucrats using decades old technology 4705 03:47:43,279 --> 03:47:47,319 that does not work properly. 4706 03:47:48,880 --> 03:47:55,359 The critics's response was obvious. They 4707 03:47:51,840 --> 03:47:59,520 told Theo he had built the panopticon, 4708 03:47:55,359 --> 03:48:01,600 the architecture of total surveillance. 4709 03:47:59,520 --> 03:48:03,920 A system allowing governments around the 4710 03:48:01,600 --> 03:48:06,800 world to use their citizens information 4711 03:48:03,920 --> 03:48:09,359 to control them, not a system to protect 4712 03:48:06,800 --> 03:48:11,680 them, said the critics. 4713 03:48:09,359 --> 03:48:14,479 Palanteer now operates in dozens of 4714 03:48:11,680 --> 03:48:17,359 countries worldwide. The United States, 4715 03:48:14,479 --> 03:48:20,239 the United Kingdom, Germany, France, 4716 03:48:17,359 --> 03:48:22,399 Australia, and [music] even Japan. 4717 03:48:20,239 --> 03:48:25,439 The company has some controversial 4718 03:48:22,399 --> 03:48:28,399 international clients, some confirmed, 4719 03:48:25,439 --> 03:48:32,000 some alleged, but the total estimated 4720 03:48:28,399 --> 03:48:36,399 value of all global contracts lifetime, 4721 03:48:32,000 --> 03:48:39,199 over $10 billion in contract value. 4722 03:48:36,399 --> 03:48:42,319 Palanteer is Peter Theel's most 4723 03:48:39,199 --> 03:48:45,439 important company. Not because of its 4724 03:48:42,319 --> 03:48:47,840 valuation, though that is substantial. 4725 03:48:45,439 --> 03:48:51,520 Not because of its revenue, though that 4726 03:48:47,840 --> 03:48:53,840 is significant. Palanteer is important 4727 03:48:51,520 --> 03:48:56,800 because it reveals the truth about 4728 03:48:53,840 --> 03:48:59,439 Theo's worldview. It is the bridge 4729 03:48:56,800 --> 03:49:03,120 between his libertarian philosophy and 4730 03:48:59,439 --> 03:49:04,678 his authoritarian reality. He claims to 4731 03:49:03,120 --> 03:49:06,160 want freedom from government control. 4732 03:49:04,678 --> 03:49:08,800 [music] 4733 03:49:06,160 --> 03:49:11,040 But Palanteer gives governments 4734 03:49:08,800 --> 03:49:13,600 unprecedented control over their 4735 03:49:11,040 --> 03:49:16,640 citizens. The resolution of this 4736 03:49:13,600 --> 03:49:20,000 apparent contradiction. Peter the 4737 03:49:16,640 --> 03:49:24,080 believes in freedom for the elite and 4738 03:49:20,000 --> 03:49:26,399 surveillance for everyone else. 4739 03:49:24,080 --> 03:49:29,600 In his vision of the world, there are 4740 03:49:26,399 --> 03:49:31,760 rulers and there are the ruled. There 4741 03:49:29,600 --> 03:49:34,479 are the people who make the decisions 4742 03:49:31,760 --> 03:49:37,040 and the [music] people who are managed. 4743 03:49:34,479 --> 03:49:40,399 Palanteer is the enforcement mechanism 4744 03:49:37,040 --> 03:49:43,680 for that hierarchy. The technology that 4745 03:49:40,399 --> 03:49:45,920 ensures the rulers can see everything. 4746 03:49:43,680 --> 03:49:48,960 the system that makes resistance 4747 03:49:45,920 --> 03:49:52,080 impossible because privacy no longer 4748 03:49:48,960 --> 03:49:55,359 exists. And Peter Theal sits at the 4749 03:49:52,080 --> 03:49:58,479 center of that eye, watching the world, 4750 03:49:55,359 --> 03:50:02,199 seeing everything. The architect of the 4751 03:49:58,479 --> 03:50:02,199 surveillance state. 4752 03:50:04,640 --> 03:50:10,479 In 2016, Peter Theal made an investment 4753 03:50:08,399 --> 03:50:13,508 that every other major technology 4754 03:50:10,479 --> 03:50:13,508 investor avoided. [music] 4755 03:50:13,680 --> 03:50:18,319 While his peers in Silicon Valley were 4756 03:50:16,160 --> 03:50:22,080 contributing millions to the opposing 4757 03:50:18,319 --> 03:50:24,800 campaign, Theel wrote a check for $1.25 4758 03:50:22,080 --> 03:50:26,319 million to Donald Trump's presidential 4759 03:50:24,800 --> 03:50:29,279 campaign. 4760 03:50:26,319 --> 03:50:32,720 This was not ideology. This was 4761 03:50:29,279 --> 03:50:35,040 portfolio diversification. 4762 03:50:32,720 --> 03:50:37,840 Feel [music] has always invested in 4763 03:50:35,040 --> 03:50:42,080 contrarian positions. When everyone 4764 03:50:37,840 --> 03:50:45,199 zigs, he zags. When consensus forms in 4765 03:50:42,080 --> 03:50:48,640 one direction, he looks for asymmetric 4766 03:50:45,199 --> 03:50:51,040 opportunities in the other. The 2006 4767 03:50:48,640 --> 03:50:53,120 donation gave him something money 4768 03:50:51,040 --> 03:50:56,640 usually cannot buy in Silicon [music] 4769 03:50:53,120 --> 03:51:00,319 Valley. Direct access to executive 4770 03:50:56,640 --> 03:51:02,880 power. The return on that $1.25 $25 4771 03:51:00,319 --> 03:51:05,439 million investment, 4772 03:51:02,880 --> 03:51:08,880 a seat on the presidential transition 4773 03:51:05,439 --> 03:51:12,080 team, input on federal technology 4774 03:51:08,880 --> 03:51:14,640 policy, direct communication channels to 4775 03:51:12,080 --> 03:51:18,399 the White [music] House, credibility as 4776 03:51:14,640 --> 03:51:21,040 a Washington power broker, 4777 03:51:18,399 --> 03:51:22,800 and most measurably, Palanteer's 4778 03:51:21,040 --> 03:51:26,239 government contracts increased 4779 03:51:22,800 --> 03:51:28,560 substantially during this period. 4780 03:51:26,239 --> 03:51:31,840 But the's most significant political 4781 03:51:28,560 --> 03:51:33,359 investments came in the 2022 midterm 4782 03:51:31,840 --> 03:51:37,120 elections. 4783 03:51:33,359 --> 03:51:40,640 Two candidates, both former employees, 4784 03:51:37,120 --> 03:51:42,560 both running for United States Senate. 4785 03:51:40,640 --> 03:51:45,439 The financial commitment was 4786 03:51:42,560 --> 03:51:47,840 unprecedented in scale. 4787 03:51:45,439 --> 03:51:50,000 Vance had worked at Theel's venture 4788 03:51:47,840 --> 03:51:53,040 capital firm before writing his [music] 4789 03:51:50,000 --> 03:51:55,120 best-selling memoir. Fields total 4790 03:51:53,040 --> 03:52:00,080 financial commitment 4791 03:51:55,120 --> 03:52:02,640 direct campaign contribution $15 million 4792 03:52:00,080 --> 03:52:07,760 super PAC [music] expenditures $5 4793 03:52:02,640 --> 03:52:10,479 million combined investment $20 million. 4794 03:52:07,760 --> 03:52:12,800 This set a [music] record as the largest 4795 03:52:10,479 --> 03:52:15,359 single donor contribution to an 4796 03:52:12,800 --> 03:52:19,439 individual Senate campaign in American 4797 03:52:15,359 --> 03:52:21,520 history. The outcome Vance won by six 4798 03:52:19,439 --> 03:52:24,560 percentage points. 4799 03:52:21,520 --> 03:52:26,960 Masters had worked directly for Theel as 4800 03:52:24,560 --> 03:52:28,479 chief operating officer at Theel 4801 03:52:26,960 --> 03:52:30,479 Capital. 4802 03:52:28,479 --> 03:52:32,800 Theel's financial commitment to his 4803 03:52:30,479 --> 03:52:36,640 campaign was a combined investment of 4804 03:52:32,800 --> 03:52:39,760 $20 million. But unlike Vance, Masters 4805 03:52:36,640 --> 03:52:43,359 lost by 5 percentage points. 4806 03:52:39,760 --> 03:52:47,279 The total 2022 midterm investment was 4807 03:52:43,359 --> 03:52:49,120 over $40 million in two Senate races. 4808 03:52:47,279 --> 03:52:51,359 two different candidates that would have 4809 03:52:49,120 --> 03:52:53,199 allowed him to be in direct touch with 4810 03:52:51,359 --> 03:52:56,239 power at different chambers [music] and 4811 03:52:53,199 --> 03:52:58,319 stages. For context, the average 4812 03:52:56,239 --> 03:53:01,840 competitive Senate race costs 4813 03:52:58,319 --> 03:53:04,411 approximately $10 million total. Peter 4814 03:53:01,840 --> 03:53:07,880 Theal invested four times that amount on 4815 03:53:04,411 --> 03:53:07,880 [music] two races. 4816 03:53:08,479 --> 03:53:15,199 It's July 2024. JD Vance is selected as 4817 03:53:13,040 --> 03:53:18,080 the Republican vice presidential 4818 03:53:15,199 --> 03:53:20,720 candidate. From a pure investment 4819 03:53:18,080 --> 03:53:23,120 analysis perspective, this transforms 4820 03:53:20,720 --> 03:53:25,840 the return profile and Theo's $20 4821 03:53:23,120 --> 03:53:28,239 million commitment. He has considered 4822 03:53:25,840 --> 03:53:32,399 the potential financial implications if 4823 03:53:28,239 --> 03:53:34,960 this ticket wins and he gets access to 4824 03:53:32,399 --> 03:53:38,319 executive branch decisionmaking for 8 4825 03:53:34,960 --> 03:53:41,760 years. influence over federal contract 4826 03:53:38,319 --> 03:53:44,720 allocation across multiple agencies. 4827 03:53:41,760 --> 03:53:48,960 Input on technology regulation affecting 4828 03:53:44,720 --> 03:53:51,279 the portfolio [music] companies. 4829 03:53:48,960 --> 03:53:53,359 If we consider what's the estimated 4830 03:53:51,279 --> 03:53:56,720 return on investment for Palanteer's 4831 03:53:53,359 --> 03:53:58,960 government business, what we see is 4832 03:53:56,720 --> 03:54:01,760 current annual government revenue of 4833 03:53:58,960 --> 03:54:04,479 $1.5 billion. 4834 03:54:01,760 --> 03:54:07,760 potential additional contract value over 4835 03:54:04,479 --> 03:54:09,966 eight years conservatively 5 to10 4836 03:54:07,760 --> 03:54:09,966 billion [music] 4837 03:54:10,800 --> 03:54:17,439 and other defense companies in the 4838 03:54:13,920 --> 03:54:19,120 network potential 3 to5 billion in 4839 03:54:17,439 --> 03:54:20,640 contracts 4840 03:54:19,120 --> 03:54:23,120 regulatory [music] treatment of 4841 03:54:20,640 --> 03:54:28,120 cryptocurrency holdings value 4842 03:54:23,120 --> 03:54:28,120 potentially in tens of billions. 4843 03:54:29,840 --> 03:54:35,920 The theoretical return of those 20 4844 03:54:32,399 --> 03:54:39,279 million invested is potentially 15 to 20 4845 03:54:35,920 --> 03:54:43,279 billion captured across the portfolio. 4846 03:54:39,279 --> 03:54:46,960 That represents a potential of 750 to 4847 03:54:43,279 --> 03:54:49,279 1,000 times return. By comparison, 4848 03:54:46,960 --> 03:54:51,600 Theel's Facebook investment returned 4849 03:54:49,279 --> 03:54:54,080 2,000 times. 4850 03:54:51,600 --> 03:54:59,439 To sum it up, the complete political 4851 03:54:54,080 --> 03:55:01,760 spending of the from 2016 to 2022 is 70 4852 03:54:59,439 --> 03:55:04,319 to $80 million. 4853 03:55:01,760 --> 03:55:07,199 For context, Amazon spends 20 [music] 4854 03:55:04,319 --> 03:55:10,239 million annually on lobbying. Meta 4855 03:55:07,199 --> 03:55:13,040 spends 20 million annual on lobbying. 4856 03:55:10,239 --> 03:55:16,720 Google spends 12 million annually on 4857 03:55:13,040 --> 03:55:18,720 lobbying. Field's approach is different. 4858 03:55:16,720 --> 03:55:20,652 Rather than ongoing lobbying 4859 03:55:18,720 --> 03:55:21,279 expenditures, he makes concentrated 4860 03:55:20,652 --> 03:55:24,080 [music] 4861 03:55:21,279 --> 03:55:27,279 investments in individual candidates who 4862 03:55:24,080 --> 03:55:30,279 potentially provide access for years or 4863 03:55:27,279 --> 03:55:30,279 decades. 4864 03:55:30,319 --> 03:55:35,359 It is the venture capital model applied 4865 03:55:32,800 --> 03:55:38,319 to politics. Make early stage 4866 03:55:35,359 --> 03:55:40,800 investments in promising candidates. 4867 03:55:38,319 --> 03:55:44,080 Provide sufficient capital to help them 4868 03:55:40,800 --> 03:55:46,640 win. Capture value through long-term 4869 03:55:44,080 --> 03:55:49,279 relationships and access. 4870 03:55:46,640 --> 03:55:52,080 The candidates Theel has supported now 4871 03:55:49,279 --> 03:55:54,560 serve on key committees. 4872 03:55:52,080 --> 03:55:56,160 Technology regulation, defense 4873 03:55:54,560 --> 03:55:59,040 appropriations, 4874 03:55:56,160 --> 03:56:01,840 intelligence oversight, banking and 4875 03:55:59,040 --> 03:56:04,080 financial services. 4876 03:56:01,840 --> 03:56:06,560 Precisely the committees that oversee 4877 03:56:04,080 --> 03:56:08,960 industries where the has billions 4878 03:56:06,560 --> 03:56:11,760 invested and where he can use some 4879 03:56:08,960 --> 03:56:14,399 privileged information. [music] 4880 03:56:11,760 --> 03:56:17,600 Is political investment a good use of 4881 03:56:14,399 --> 03:56:19,120 capital? The mathematics suggest [music] 4882 03:56:17,600 --> 03:56:22,319 yes 4883 03:56:19,120 --> 03:56:25,840 70 to 80 million represents less than 1% 4884 03:56:22,319 --> 03:56:28,080 of the's net worth. The potential return 4885 03:56:25,840 --> 03:56:30,960 if facets translate to favorable 4886 03:56:28,080 --> 03:56:34,479 treatment for portfolio companies could 4887 03:56:30,960 --> 03:56:36,880 be worth billions. Even with a 50% 4888 03:56:34,479 --> 03:56:39,760 success rate, the expected value is 4889 03:56:36,880 --> 03:56:42,880 positive by orders of magnitude. 4890 03:56:39,760 --> 03:56:46,880 Investment 70 to 80 million over 8 4891 03:56:42,880 --> 03:56:50,160 years. Potential value captured 15 to 30 4892 03:56:46,880 --> 03:56:56,640 billion across portfolio. Expected 4893 03:56:50,160 --> 03:56:59,199 return 200 to 400 times invested capital 4894 03:56:56,640 --> 03:57:02,399 that rivals the best venture capital 4895 03:56:59,199 --> 03:57:05,680 returns in history. Peter Theel is not 4896 03:57:02,399 --> 03:57:08,680 playing politics. He is optimizing his 4897 03:57:05,680 --> 03:57:08,680 portfolio. 4898 03:57:10,000 --> 03:57:16,000 Chapter 7. The final exit. 4899 03:57:13,840 --> 03:57:18,720 Peter Theal has spent his life betting 4900 03:57:16,000 --> 03:57:21,279 on the future, building it, funding it, 4901 03:57:18,720 --> 03:57:25,199 accelerating it. But there is one 4902 03:57:21,279 --> 03:57:30,000 frontier he refuses to accept as fixed. 4903 03:57:25,199 --> 03:57:32,560 Death. To him, mortality is not destiny. 4904 03:57:30,000 --> 03:57:34,880 It is an engineering problem waiting for 4905 03:57:32,560 --> 03:57:37,040 a breakthrough. Unlike every other 4906 03:57:34,880 --> 03:57:40,239 system he has challenged, he believes 4907 03:57:37,040 --> 03:57:42,880 this one too can be redesigned. 4908 03:57:40,239 --> 03:57:45,520 While others plan for retirement, Theel 4909 03:57:42,880 --> 03:57:48,239 funds longevity [music] labs. While 4910 03:57:45,520 --> 03:57:51,304 governments plan for decades, he thinks 4911 03:57:48,239 --> 03:57:53,199 in centuries. If time is the ultimate 4912 03:57:51,304 --> 03:57:56,720 [music] constraint on power, then 4913 03:57:53,199 --> 03:57:58,960 extending life is the ultimate leverage. 4914 03:57:56,720 --> 03:58:02,880 At the edge of the world, he built a 4915 03:57:58,960 --> 03:58:07,439 refuge. Far from political centers, far 4916 03:58:02,880 --> 03:58:09,920 from social unrest, close only to time. 4917 03:58:07,439 --> 03:58:11,920 In Silicon Valley, there is a dark joke 4918 03:58:09,920 --> 03:58:14,080 shared quietly [music] among founders 4919 03:58:11,920 --> 03:58:16,239 and investors. 4920 03:58:14,080 --> 03:58:18,720 How many billionaires does it take to 4921 03:58:16,239 --> 03:58:21,760 buy a country? 4922 03:58:18,720 --> 03:58:25,160 Just one, if he is smart enough to get 4923 03:58:21,760 --> 03:58:25,160 there first. 4924 03:58:25,520 --> 03:58:30,160 He invested in digital currencies that 4925 03:58:27,840 --> 03:58:32,000 governments cannot print. In 4926 03:58:30,160 --> 03:58:34,560 surveillance systems that see [music] 4927 03:58:32,000 --> 03:58:37,600 what others cannot. In political 4928 03:58:34,560 --> 03:58:40,239 candidates who might shape the rules. In 4929 03:58:37,600 --> 03:58:43,920 technologies that might outlive biology 4930 03:58:40,239 --> 03:58:47,560 itself. Not to save the world, to 4931 03:58:43,920 --> 03:58:47,560 outlast it. 4932 03:58:49,520 --> 03:58:55,040 What began as a contingency plan for a 4933 03:58:52,160 --> 03:58:57,840 few has become an unspoken strategy 4934 03:58:55,040 --> 03:59:00,239 among the ultra wealthy. 4935 03:58:57,840 --> 03:59:02,800 When the New Zealand citizenship story 4936 03:59:00,239 --> 03:59:06,399 became public, one of Theo's closest 4937 03:59:02,800 --> 03:59:09,199 peers, Samman, put it bluntly. 4938 03:59:06,399 --> 03:59:12,160 If things go really wrong, I'm flying to 4939 03:59:09,199 --> 03:59:15,359 Peter's place. 4940 03:59:12,160 --> 03:59:18,560 Some men try to make history. Peter 4941 03:59:15,359 --> 03:59:21,359 Theel is trying to escape it. 4942 03:59:18,560 --> 03:59:26,680 And if the future breaks, he intends to 4943 03:59:21,359 --> 03:59:26,680 be standing somewhere it cannot reach. 4944 04:00:52,399 --> 04:00:57,439 Most people see this and think culture. 4945 04:00:55,439 --> 04:00:59,840 They see a charming eco-friendly 4946 04:00:57,439 --> 04:01:02,640 tradition. 4947 04:00:59,840 --> 04:01:05,120 But look closer. This isn't just people 4948 04:01:02,640 --> 04:01:07,600 liking to pedal. What you were watching 4949 04:01:05,120 --> 04:01:09,439 is a highfrequency, low friction 4950 04:01:07,600 --> 04:01:11,279 economic machine. 4951 04:01:09,439 --> 04:01:13,120 >> Ultimately, private car ownership is 4952 04:01:11,279 --> 04:01:14,880 going to become [music] obsolete. Cities 4953 04:01:13,120 --> 04:01:16,560 are building for pedestrians. They're 4954 04:01:14,880 --> 04:01:20,000 building for cycling. They're building 4955 04:01:16,560 --> 04:01:22,640 for livability, not for cars. 4956 04:01:20,000 --> 04:01:26,600 >> The bike economy, the multi-billion 4957 04:01:22,640 --> 04:01:26,600 dollar system of Amsterdam. 4958 04:01:27,760 --> 04:01:34,560 In Amsterdam, the bicycle isn't a toy. 4959 04:01:31,199 --> 04:01:37,439 It is a critical urban infrastructure. 4960 04:01:34,560 --> 04:01:41,880 If this system failed today, the city's 4961 04:01:37,439 --> 04:01:41,880 economy would collapse tomorrow. 4962 04:01:42,000 --> 04:01:47,120 For decades, the world has viewed 4963 04:01:43,920 --> 04:01:50,399 Amsterdam through a romantic lens. But 4964 04:01:47,120 --> 04:01:52,960 cities don't run on vibes. They run on 4965 04:01:50,399 --> 04:01:54,880 systems. And when a system moves 4966 04:01:52,960 --> 04:01:57,840 hundreds of thousands of people every 4967 04:01:54,880 --> 04:02:01,040 single day, it stops being a choice and 4968 04:01:57,840 --> 04:02:03,840 starts demanding three things. space, 4969 04:02:01,040 --> 04:02:06,080 rules, and capital. 4970 04:02:03,840 --> 04:02:08,319 Research shows that the cycling system 4971 04:02:06,080 --> 04:02:10,399 contributes benefits equivalent to 4972 04:02:08,319 --> 04:02:11,920 roughly 3% of the Netherlands [music] 4973 04:02:10,399 --> 04:02:14,880 GDP. 4974 04:02:11,920 --> 04:02:17,680 This isn't just green energy. It's hard 4975 04:02:14,880 --> 04:02:20,239 cash saved in public health, reduced 4976 04:02:17,680 --> 04:02:21,279 absenteeism at work, and most 4977 04:02:20,239 --> 04:02:24,160 importantly, [music] 4978 04:02:21,279 --> 04:02:27,062 unlocked productivity. Every person on a 4979 04:02:24,160 --> 04:02:28,800 bike is a person who isn't taking up 12 4980 04:02:27,062 --> 04:02:32,080 [music] square meters of public space 4981 04:02:28,800 --> 04:02:34,640 with a car. That freed up space allows 4982 04:02:32,080 --> 04:02:37,920 for high value real estate, commerce, 4983 04:02:34,640 --> 04:02:42,520 and tourism. In economics, we call this 4984 04:02:37,920 --> 04:02:42,520 optimization of land use. 4985 04:02:44,000 --> 04:02:49,920 But success created a [music] crisis. By 4986 04:02:47,120 --> 04:02:52,607 the 2010s, Amsterdam had a clutter 4987 04:02:49,920 --> 04:02:55,760 problem. Thousands of bikes were choking 4988 04:02:52,607 --> 04:02:57,680 [music] the streets. The solution, one 4989 04:02:55,760 --> 04:02:59,279 of the most expensive and daring 4990 04:02:57,680 --> 04:03:03,279 engineering projects [music] in the 4991 04:02:59,279 --> 04:03:06,880 city. They built a cathedral for 7,000 4992 04:03:03,279 --> 04:03:08,479 bicycles under the water. 4993 04:03:06,880 --> 04:03:10,800 It cost millions. [music] 4994 04:03:08,479 --> 04:03:13,279 From a traditional linear perspective, 4995 04:03:10,800 --> 04:03:16,160 spending that much on free parking seems 4996 04:03:13,279 --> 04:03:18,560 insane. But from a circular economy 4997 04:03:16,160 --> 04:03:21,279 perspective, a model where Amsterdam is 4998 04:03:18,560 --> 04:03:23,840 a global leader with 30.6% [music] 4999 04:03:21,279 --> 04:03:26,560 circularity rate, it was a mandatory 5000 04:03:23,840 --> 04:03:28,160 investment. As we see in the latest 5001 04:03:26,560 --> 04:03:30,800 urban governance reports, [music] 5002 04:03:28,160 --> 04:03:33,439 planning isn't an option here. It's the 5003 04:03:30,800 --> 04:03:35,279 only way to exist. 5004 04:03:33,439 --> 04:03:38,080 In this documentary, [music] we are 5005 04:03:35,279 --> 04:03:41,199 going beyond the postcard. We will 5006 04:03:38,080 --> 04:03:43,520 travel back to 1965 to see why [music] 5007 04:03:41,199 --> 04:03:46,318 the first sharing economy experiment 5008 04:03:43,520 --> 04:03:48,720 failed. We will use scientific GPS 5009 04:03:46,318 --> 04:03:52,239 [music] data to track the shadow economy 5010 04:03:48,720 --> 04:03:53,920 of the 80,000 bikes stolen every year. 5011 04:03:52,239 --> 04:03:56,399 And we will explore [music] how 5012 04:03:53,920 --> 04:04:00,239 Amsterdam is using the bicycle to become 5013 04:03:56,399 --> 04:04:03,680 the world's first 100% circular city by 5014 04:04:00,239 --> 04:04:05,760 2050. This is the story of how a humble 5015 04:04:03,680 --> 04:04:08,560 machine with two wheels became the 5016 04:04:05,760 --> 04:04:11,560 backbone of a multi-billion dollar urban 5017 04:04:08,560 --> 04:04:11,560 miracle. 5018 04:04:14,319 --> 04:04:20,399 To understand why Amsterdam spends €85 5019 04:04:17,199 --> 04:04:22,880 million on underwater parking today, we 5020 04:04:20,399 --> 04:04:26,160 have to go back to a time when the city 5021 04:04:22,880 --> 04:04:29,160 almost lost its soul to the car, the 5022 04:04:26,160 --> 04:04:29,160 1960s. 5023 04:04:33,359 --> 04:04:39,600 As post-war prosperity grew, Amsterdam 5024 04:04:36,319 --> 04:04:41,760 was being choked by motor vehicles. 5025 04:04:39,600 --> 04:04:43,840 In response, a counterculture group 5026 04:04:41,760 --> 04:04:46,399 called the Provos launched what would 5027 04:04:43,840 --> 04:04:49,920 become the first bike sharing program in 5028 04:04:46,399 --> 04:04:52,239 history, the Vita Fieten Plan, or the 5029 04:04:49,920 --> 04:04:54,880 White Bike Plan. 5030 04:04:52,239 --> 04:04:57,600 Their proposal was radical and purely 5031 04:04:54,880 --> 04:04:59,920 idealistic. Paint 20,000 [music] 5032 04:04:57,600 --> 04:05:02,399 bicycles white, leave them unlocked 5033 04:04:59,920 --> 04:05:05,600 across the city and let anyone use them 5034 04:05:02,399 --> 04:05:08,640 for free. No keys, no coins, [music] 5035 04:05:05,600 --> 04:05:11,520 no owners. They viewed mobility as a 5036 04:05:08,640 --> 04:05:14,720 public good, as essential and free as 5037 04:05:11,520 --> 04:05:16,080 the air we breathe. On paper, it was a 5038 04:05:14,720 --> 04:05:19,600 circular economy, [music] 5039 04:05:16,080 --> 04:05:21,920 avant letra. In practice, it was a 5040 04:05:19,600 --> 04:05:24,720 disaster. [music] Within days, the 5041 04:05:21,920 --> 04:05:26,880 system collapsed. Why? Because the 5042 04:05:24,720 --> 04:05:29,760 provos ignored a fundamental principle 5043 04:05:26,880 --> 04:05:32,760 of economics, the tragedy [music] of the 5044 04:05:29,760 --> 04:05:32,760 commons. 5045 04:06:08,080 --> 04:06:12,319 Without ownership or registration, 5046 04:06:10,239 --> 04:06:15,359 public property quickly [music] became 5047 04:06:12,319 --> 04:06:17,600 nobody's property. In an unregulated 5048 04:06:15,359 --> 04:06:19,439 system with zero entry cost, the 5049 04:06:17,600 --> 04:06:21,680 incentive to maintain the asset 5050 04:06:19,439 --> 04:06:24,239 disappears. Without locks or 5051 04:06:21,680 --> 04:06:26,399 registration, public property quickly 5052 04:06:24,239 --> 04:06:28,640 became nobody's property. [music] 5053 04:06:26,399 --> 04:06:31,439 The police confiscated the bikes because 5054 04:06:28,640 --> 04:06:34,160 they invited theft and the citizens 5055 04:06:31,439 --> 04:06:35,965 driven by individual rationalism either 5056 04:06:34,160 --> 04:06:38,800 took them home or threw them into 5057 04:06:35,965 --> 04:06:41,600 [music] the canals. 5058 04:06:38,800 --> 04:06:43,279 The lesson was harsh. You cannot have a 5059 04:06:41,600 --> 04:06:46,000 massive urban transit system [music] 5060 04:06:43,279 --> 04:06:49,640 based solely on romanticism. 5061 04:06:46,000 --> 04:06:49,640 You need governance. 5062 04:06:51,279 --> 04:06:57,359 However, the white bikes planted a seed. 5063 04:06:54,319 --> 04:06:59,120 It shifted the economic debate. The city 5064 04:06:57,359 --> 04:07:01,359 realized that if they didn't want to 5065 04:06:59,120 --> 04:07:04,000 spend billions on highways like Los 5066 04:07:01,359 --> 04:07:06,080 Angeles or London, they had to invest in 5067 04:07:04,000 --> 04:07:08,640 a [music] different kind of capital. 5068 04:07:06,080 --> 04:07:12,080 Transition requires not just technology 5069 04:07:08,640 --> 04:07:14,160 but a change in urban metabolism. 5070 04:07:12,080 --> 04:07:16,479 The failure of the white bikes taught 5071 04:07:14,160 --> 04:07:18,560 Amsterdam that the bicycle had to be 5072 04:07:16,479 --> 04:07:21,279 integrated into the formal economy of 5073 04:07:18,560 --> 04:07:23,920 the city, not as a rebel symbol, [music] 5074 04:07:21,279 --> 04:07:25,439 but as a regulated, taxed and planned 5075 04:07:23,920 --> 04:07:27,439 asset. 5076 04:07:25,439 --> 04:07:29,199 Today, the free spirit of the white 5077 04:07:27,439 --> 04:07:33,040 bikes only survives in one [music] 5078 04:07:29,199 --> 04:07:35,199 place, the Hoga Valu National Park. But 5079 04:07:33,040 --> 04:07:37,600 in the city, the white bike has been 5080 04:07:35,199 --> 04:07:40,640 replaced by a sophisticated capital 5081 04:07:37,600 --> 04:07:42,775 incentive model. We no longer trust in 5082 04:07:40,640 --> 04:07:45,359 the goodness of the user. We trust 5083 04:07:42,775 --> 04:07:47,680 [music] in incentives. We move the 5084 04:07:45,359 --> 04:07:50,560 tragedy of the commons to a system of 5085 04:07:47,680 --> 04:07:53,040 managed common pool resources. In 5086 04:07:50,560 --> 04:07:56,800 economics, success can be as disruptive 5087 04:07:53,040 --> 04:07:59,760 as failure. By the late 2010s, Amsterdam 5088 04:07:56,800 --> 04:08:02,239 was a victim of its own efficiency. With 5089 04:07:59,760 --> 04:08:04,479 nearly 1 million bicycles in the city, 5090 04:08:02,239 --> 04:08:07,600 the urban surface had reached a breaking 5091 04:08:04,479 --> 04:08:11,760 point. Every bridge, railing, and 5092 04:08:07,600 --> 04:08:14,319 sidewalk was occupied by idle metal. 5093 04:08:11,760 --> 04:08:15,439 This wasn't just an aesthetic grievance. 5094 04:08:14,319 --> 04:08:18,560 It was an economic [music] 5095 04:08:15,439 --> 04:08:20,640 bottleneck. Thousands of parked bikes 5096 04:08:18,560 --> 04:08:23,387 were clogging the city's arteries, 5097 04:08:20,640 --> 04:08:26,000 slowing down 200,000 daily commuters at 5098 04:08:23,387 --> 04:08:27,920 [music] Central Station. In one of the 5099 04:08:26,000 --> 04:08:30,319 world's most expensive real estate 5100 04:08:27,920 --> 04:08:32,880 markets, free surface parking [music] is 5101 04:08:30,319 --> 04:08:35,439 a luxury that a functional city cannot 5102 04:08:32,880 --> 04:08:38,560 afford. The opportunity cost of that 5103 04:08:35,439 --> 04:08:40,800 space [music] was becoming too high. To 5104 04:08:38,560 --> 04:08:41,840 solve this, Amsterdam launched the 5105 04:08:40,800 --> 04:08:45,040 entre, [music] 5106 04:08:41,840 --> 04:08:47,840 a massive urban reconfiguration project. 5107 04:08:45,040 --> 04:08:50,239 The crown jewel, the open haven 5108 04:08:47,840 --> 04:08:53,120 underwater parking. 5109 04:08:50,239 --> 04:08:56,399 Consider that figure. Spending €60 5110 04:08:53,120 --> 04:08:57,920 million just to store 7,000 bicycles 5111 04:08:56,399 --> 04:09:00,319 underwater. 5112 04:08:57,920 --> 04:09:03,439 To a traditional accountant, this looks 5113 04:09:00,319 --> 04:09:06,160 like a massive sunk cost. But to an 5114 04:09:03,439 --> 04:09:09,840 urban economist, it's a master stroke of 5115 04:09:06,160 --> 04:09:12,239 asset management. By moving 7,000 bikes 5116 04:09:09,840 --> 04:09:15,040 beneath the water, the city performed 5117 04:09:12,239 --> 04:09:16,960 open heart surgery on its central hub. 5118 04:09:15,040 --> 04:09:20,319 They reclaimed the surface, restoring 5119 04:09:16,960 --> 04:09:22,640 the landscape to its 1900's aesthetic. 5120 04:09:20,319 --> 04:09:25,920 This isn't just about beauty. It's about 5121 04:09:22,640 --> 04:09:28,160 maximizing pedestrian flow. A station 5122 04:09:25,920 --> 04:09:30,720 that breathes and flows is a station 5123 04:09:28,160 --> 04:09:33,840 that generates higher economic value for 5124 04:09:30,720 --> 04:09:36,880 the surrounding businesses. However, an 5125 04:09:33,840 --> 04:09:38,720 85 million euro asset must be managed 5126 04:09:36,880 --> 04:09:41,600 like a high performance logistics 5127 04:09:38,720 --> 04:09:44,399 center. You cannot allow zombie bikes to 5128 04:09:41,600 --> 04:09:46,399 occupy these slots indefinitely. 5129 04:09:44,399 --> 04:09:50,000 This is where the incentive structure 5130 04:09:46,399 --> 04:09:53,359 comes into play. The primary goal isn't 5131 04:09:50,000 --> 04:09:55,920 profit, it's turnover. By offering the 5132 04:09:53,359 --> 04:09:58,560 first 24 hours for free, the city 5133 04:09:55,920 --> 04:10:01,439 subsidizes the daily [music] workforce. 5134 04:09:58,560 --> 04:10:03,840 But by charging a daily fee thereafter, 5135 04:10:01,439 --> 04:10:06,720 they penalize long-term storage and 5136 04:10:03,840 --> 04:10:07,439 abandonment. Using advanced optical 5137 04:10:06,720 --> 04:10:10,239 sensors, [music] 5138 04:10:07,439 --> 04:10:12,800 the city monitors idle inventory in real 5139 04:10:10,239 --> 04:10:15,439 time, ensuring that these [music] 7,000 5140 04:10:12,800 --> 04:10:19,640 slots remain a liquid asset for those 5141 04:10:15,439 --> 04:10:19,640 who keep the economy moving. 5142 04:10:19,680 --> 04:10:24,920 Finally, we must consider the cost of 5143 04:10:21,920 --> 04:10:24,920 friction. 5144 04:10:29,199 --> 04:10:32,199 Transport. 5145 04:11:00,319 --> 04:11:05,120 In transport economics, every second 5146 04:11:02,560 --> 04:11:07,439 lost in a transfer is a loss in human 5147 04:11:05,120 --> 04:11:09,520 capital and productivity. 5148 04:11:07,439 --> 04:11:11,439 This underwater facility connects 5149 04:11:09,520 --> 04:11:14,560 directly to the metro and [music] train 5150 04:11:11,439 --> 04:11:16,880 platforms. A commuter can transition 5151 04:11:14,560 --> 04:11:19,120 from their bicycle to their train seat 5152 04:11:16,880 --> 04:11:21,359 in [music] less than 2 minutes, shielded 5153 04:11:19,120 --> 04:11:22,080 from the elements. This level of 5154 04:11:21,359 --> 04:11:24,160 intermodel [music] 5155 04:11:22,080 --> 04:11:26,640 synergy is exactly what makes 5156 04:11:24,160 --> 04:11:30,800 Amsterdam's circular economy currently 5157 04:11:26,640 --> 04:11:33,199 at a record 30.6 6% circularity rate, a 5158 04:11:30,800 --> 04:11:36,600 functional reality rather than just a 5159 04:11:33,199 --> 04:11:36,600 policy goal. 5160 04:11:59,439 --> 04:12:04,000 But this transition to a highly 5161 04:12:01,199 --> 04:12:06,000 regulated system created its own set of 5162 04:12:04,000 --> 04:12:08,399 problems. [music] Because when you turn 5163 04:12:06,000 --> 04:12:11,279 a bicycle into a valuable economic 5164 04:12:08,399 --> 04:12:14,560 asset, you create something else. A 5165 04:12:11,279 --> 04:12:17,040 black market. [music] In Amsterdam, data 5166 04:12:14,560 --> 04:12:20,080 doesn't tell the whole story. While 5167 04:12:17,040 --> 04:12:23,600 police record 11,000 thefts a year, the 5168 04:12:20,080 --> 04:12:26,000 reality is closer to 80,000. 5169 04:12:23,600 --> 04:12:28,080 Most citizens don't report it. [music] 5170 04:12:26,000 --> 04:12:30,960 Cost of time is higher than the bike's 5171 04:12:28,080 --> 04:12:33,120 value. This creates a massive shadow 5172 04:12:30,960 --> 04:12:36,080 market operating entirely outside the 5173 04:12:33,120 --> 04:12:39,840 official GDP. Forget the myth of 5174 04:12:36,080 --> 04:12:43,600 international bike smuggling rings. 5175 04:12:39,840 --> 04:12:45,760 A 2023 study tracking 100 bikes proved 5176 04:12:43,600 --> 04:12:48,880 that stolen assets rarely leave the 5177 04:12:45,760 --> 04:12:51,520 city. Instead, they feed a shadow 5178 04:12:48,880 --> 04:12:53,359 circular economy. Your stolen bike is 5179 04:12:51,520 --> 04:12:55,439 sold to [music] a street dealer and then 5180 04:12:53,359 --> 04:12:57,180 bought by your neighbor. It's a 5181 04:12:55,439 --> 04:12:57,279 localized, untaxed, and 5182 04:12:57,180 --> 04:13:00,960 >> [music] 5183 04:12:57,279 --> 04:13:03,120 >> illegal closed loop. 5184 04:13:00,960 --> 04:13:05,680 High theft risk creates a market 5185 04:13:03,120 --> 04:13:07,659 distortion. If you expect your bike to 5186 04:13:05,680 --> 04:13:11,040 be stolen within months, you don't 5187 04:13:07,659 --> 04:13:13,760 [music] buy quality, you buy junk. This 5188 04:13:11,040 --> 04:13:16,319 beta bike equilibrium keeps the city's 5189 04:13:13,760 --> 04:13:18,140 transport fleet low quality and forces 5190 04:13:16,319 --> 04:13:20,880 owners to spend more on locks than 5191 04:13:18,140 --> 04:13:23,600 [music] the bikes themselves. 5192 04:13:20,880 --> 04:13:26,000 These aren't victimless crimes. They are 5193 04:13:23,600 --> 04:13:27,279 negative externalities that drain city 5194 04:13:26,000 --> 04:13:31,120 resources. [music] 5195 04:13:27,279 --> 04:13:32,880 Amsterdam's answer, the Fiat depot. 5196 04:13:31,120 --> 04:13:35,279 Since the city [music] couldn't stop the 5197 04:13:32,880 --> 04:13:37,600 theft, it decided to manage the orphaned 5198 04:13:35,279 --> 04:13:40,239 assets. Because in a circular [music] 5199 04:13:37,600 --> 04:13:42,319 city, even a stolen bike is a resource 5200 04:13:40,239 --> 04:13:45,640 that must be managed to maintain the 5201 04:13:42,319 --> 04:13:45,640 urban metabolism. 5202 04:13:46,000 --> 04:13:50,319 In a city with more bicycles than 5203 04:13:48,159 --> 04:13:52,000 people, orphaned assets are an 5204 04:13:50,319 --> 04:13:53,920 inevitability. 5205 04:13:52,000 --> 04:13:56,960 Every year, thousands of bikes are 5206 04:13:53,920 --> 04:13:59,600 simply left behind. In economic terms, 5207 04:13:56,960 --> 04:14:02,319 this is dead capital. They occupy 5208 04:13:59,600 --> 04:14:04,239 valuable public space, provide zero 5209 04:14:02,319 --> 04:14:05,840 utility, and degrade the urban 5210 04:14:04,239 --> 04:14:07,680 landscape. 5211 04:14:05,840 --> 04:14:10,159 According to official Amsterdam 5212 04:14:07,680 --> 04:14:12,640 regulations, the city must intervene 5213 04:14:10,159 --> 04:14:14,800 when private property interferes with 5214 04:14:12,640 --> 04:14:17,359 public efficiency. 5215 04:14:14,800 --> 04:14:20,319 Whether is an improperly parked bike 5216 04:14:17,359 --> 04:14:22,399 blocking an emergency exit or a wreck 5217 04:14:20,319 --> 04:14:24,640 that is no longer functional, the 5218 04:14:22,399 --> 04:14:28,479 municipality acts as the ultimate 5219 04:14:24,640 --> 04:14:31,279 enforcer of spatial order. 5220 04:14:28,479 --> 04:14:34,880 All seized bicycles are transported to a 5221 04:14:31,279 --> 04:14:37,120 central facility, the Fiat's depot. This 5222 04:14:34,880 --> 04:14:40,239 is a logistical powerhouse that manages 5223 04:14:37,120 --> 04:14:43,120 the city's lost capital. This isn't just 5224 04:14:40,239 --> 04:14:46,720 a pound. It's a sorting facility for the 5225 04:14:43,120 --> 04:14:48,800 city's metal metabolism, the retrieval. 5226 04:14:46,720 --> 04:14:52,880 Owners have around 6 weeks to claim 5227 04:14:48,800 --> 04:14:54,800 their bike for a fee, approximately €25. 5228 04:14:52,880 --> 04:14:57,199 This fee doesn't cover the full 5229 04:14:54,800 --> 04:15:00,479 operational cost, but it serves as a 5230 04:14:57,199 --> 04:15:02,880 user pays tax to discourage abandonment. 5231 04:15:00,479 --> 04:15:05,279 If your bicycle was removed from a city 5232 04:15:02,880 --> 04:15:07,359 parking facility, you will also pay 5233 04:15:05,279 --> 04:15:11,840 €33.75 5234 04:15:07,359 --> 04:15:15,120 parking cost. The sorting only about 25% 5235 04:15:11,840 --> 04:15:17,920 of bikes are ever reclaimed. The rest 5236 04:15:15,120 --> 04:15:19,439 they are classified as waste or asset. 5237 04:15:17,920 --> 04:15:23,439 Here [music] is where the circular 5238 04:15:19,439 --> 04:15:26,720 economy strategy 2020 to 2025 becomes 5239 04:15:23,439 --> 04:15:29,840 tangible. Amsterdam aims to reduce the 5240 04:15:26,720 --> 04:15:33,600 use of new raw materials by 50% [music] 5241 04:15:29,840 --> 04:15:35,840 by 2030. The Fiat's depot doesn't just 5242 04:15:33,600 --> 04:15:37,359 scrap everything. 5243 04:15:35,840 --> 04:15:39,600 Refurbishment. 5244 04:15:37,359 --> 04:15:42,399 Bikes in decent condition are sold to 5245 04:15:39,600 --> 04:15:44,880 social enterprises or secondhand shops. 5246 04:15:42,399 --> 04:15:46,960 They are recirculated into the economy 5247 04:15:44,880 --> 04:15:49,279 at a low price point, providing 5248 04:15:46,960 --> 04:15:51,040 affordable mobility for lowincome 5249 04:15:49,279 --> 04:15:52,640 residents. 5250 04:15:51,040 --> 04:15:55,040 Education. 5251 04:15:52,640 --> 04:15:57,680 Many are used in vocational training 5252 04:15:55,040 --> 04:16:00,399 programs, turning junk, into a teaching 5253 04:15:57,680 --> 04:16:03,359 tool for future mechanics. Raw 5254 04:16:00,399 --> 04:16:06,239 materials, the unsalvageable ones, are 5255 04:16:03,359 --> 04:16:09,439 sold as highquality scrap metal, feeding 5256 04:16:06,239 --> 04:16:11,359 back into the industrial cycle. 5257 04:16:09,439 --> 04:16:14,800 What we see here is a complete life 5258 04:16:11,359 --> 04:16:16,080 cycle management of a transport mode. 5259 04:16:14,800 --> 04:16:18,640 The biggest challenge [music] for 5260 04:16:16,080 --> 04:16:21,279 circular cities is the lack of effective 5261 04:16:18,640 --> 04:16:23,520 governance mechanisms. Amsterdam 5262 04:16:21,279 --> 04:16:26,000 succeeds because it treats the bicycle 5263 04:16:23,520 --> 04:16:28,399 as a public utility. From the 5264 04:16:26,000 --> 04:16:30,960 multi-million euro investment under the 5265 04:16:28,399 --> 04:16:32,800 water to the scrap metal in the harbor, 5266 04:16:30,960 --> 04:16:37,479 the city manages the entire 5267 04:16:32,800 --> 04:16:37,479 cradletograve cycle of the bicycle. 5268 04:16:39,359 --> 04:16:43,920 Amsterdam is no longer just building 5269 04:16:41,520 --> 04:16:47,520 bike lanes. It is building a new 5270 04:16:43,920 --> 04:16:50,800 economic DNA. The city has set a target 5271 04:16:47,520 --> 04:16:56,199 that many economists call impossible to 5272 04:16:50,800 --> 04:16:56,199 be 100% circular by 2050. 5273 04:16:57,040 --> 04:17:02,640 This means that by midentury, every gram 5274 04:16:59,840 --> 04:17:05,199 of steel in a bicycle and every stone in 5275 04:17:02,640 --> 04:17:06,479 a bridge must stay within the economic 5276 04:17:05,199 --> 04:17:09,279 loop. 5277 04:17:06,479 --> 04:17:12,479 The take, make, waste model will be 5278 04:17:09,279 --> 04:17:15,279 extinct. For Amsterdam, the bicycle is 5279 04:17:12,479 --> 04:17:18,319 the alpha product. The test case for how 5280 04:17:15,279 --> 04:17:21,600 a city can move, consume, and recycle 5281 04:17:18,319 --> 04:17:24,800 without depleting the planet's capital. 5282 04:17:21,600 --> 04:17:27,040 To reach 100% circularity, the concept 5283 04:17:24,800 --> 04:17:30,319 of private ownership is being challenged 5284 04:17:27,040 --> 04:17:32,960 by a more efficient model, product as a 5285 04:17:30,319 --> 04:17:35,040 service. You don't buy the bike, you 5286 04:17:32,960 --> 04:17:36,880 rent the mobility. 5287 04:17:35,040 --> 04:17:38,560 So we talk a lot about ownership as a 5288 04:17:36,880 --> 04:17:41,520 service, but it's this idea of, you 5289 04:17:38,560 --> 04:17:43,920 know, something as a service. So in our 5290 04:17:41,520 --> 04:17:45,920 case, bike as a service. It's all of the 5291 04:17:43,920 --> 04:17:47,600 benefits of ownership, but none of the 5292 04:17:45,920 --> 04:17:49,600 drawbacks. So none of having to deal 5293 04:17:47,600 --> 04:17:51,199 with the maintenance or or any of the 5294 04:17:49,600 --> 04:17:52,159 things that come with actually owning 5295 04:17:51,199 --> 04:17:54,479 something. 5296 04:17:52,159 --> 04:17:57,439 >> Economically, this aligns the incentives 5297 04:17:54,479 --> 04:18:00,239 of the producer and the consumer. If the 5298 04:17:57,439 --> 04:18:02,960 bike breaks, it's the company's problem, 5299 04:18:00,239 --> 04:18:04,720 not yours. by centralizing all of that 5300 04:18:02,960 --> 04:18:06,239 maintenance obviously we cut cost 5301 04:18:04,720 --> 04:18:08,960 significantly we cut [music] waste 5302 04:18:06,239 --> 04:18:11,760 significantly um but for the individual 5303 04:18:08,960 --> 04:18:13,520 user um they have nothing to worry about 5304 04:18:11,760 --> 04:18:15,120 you know as a subscriber you get all of 5305 04:18:13,520 --> 04:18:17,120 your maintenance so we come and do 5306 04:18:15,120 --> 04:18:19,040 preventative maintenance so first of all 5307 04:18:17,120 --> 04:18:21,199 that obviously reduced the cost um 5308 04:18:19,040 --> 04:18:23,199 overall not so much to the end user but 5309 04:18:21,199 --> 04:18:25,279 the cost of the business um that 5310 04:18:23,199 --> 04:18:28,159 prevents breakdowns and things like that 5311 04:18:25,279 --> 04:18:30,960 but in the end if you think about um the 5312 04:18:28,159 --> 04:18:32,319 cost of time the cost of effort um maybe 5313 04:18:30,960 --> 04:18:34,319 you you don't even know how to maintain 5314 04:18:32,319 --> 04:18:36,000 your own bike. Um, having a service that 5315 04:18:34,319 --> 04:18:37,520 does all of that for you is just a a 5316 04:18:36,000 --> 04:18:40,159 matter of convenience. 5317 04:18:37,520 --> 04:18:43,199 >> This forces manufacturers to design for 5318 04:18:40,159 --> 04:18:46,159 durability and modularity, the core 5319 04:18:43,199 --> 04:18:48,399 pillars of this circular economy. When 5320 04:18:46,159 --> 04:18:50,479 the city manages the flow and private 5321 04:18:48,399 --> 04:18:53,439 companies manage the maintenance, the 5322 04:18:50,479 --> 04:18:56,399 shadow economy of theft we saw in act 5323 04:18:53,439 --> 04:18:57,920 three begins to shrink. So, if you 5324 04:18:56,399 --> 04:18:59,439 subscribe to a bike from Clover and your 5325 04:18:57,920 --> 04:19:00,960 bike gets stolen, first of all, we 5326 04:18:59,439 --> 04:19:03,120 actually probably will notice that it 5327 04:19:00,960 --> 04:19:05,600 got stolen, maybe even before you did, 5328 04:19:03,120 --> 04:19:07,760 because we have GPS on all the bikes. 5329 04:19:05,600 --> 04:19:09,760 Um, but if it does get stolen, you use 5330 04:19:07,760 --> 04:19:11,199 our WhatsApp chat. You basically send us 5331 04:19:09,760 --> 04:19:13,760 a message and we come and bring you a 5332 04:19:11,199 --> 04:19:16,239 new bike immediately. Why steal a bike 5333 04:19:13,760 --> 04:19:18,560 that is tracked, branded, and has no 5334 04:19:16,239 --> 04:19:20,960 resale value in a subscription-based 5335 04:19:18,560 --> 04:19:22,720 market? 5336 04:19:20,960 --> 04:19:24,720 So, what is the final return on 5337 04:19:22,720 --> 04:19:28,399 investment? [music] Let's look at the 5338 04:19:24,720 --> 04:19:30,960 triple bottom line. Public health. By 5339 04:19:28,399 --> 04:19:32,560 avoiding 11,000 deaths annually through 5340 04:19:30,960 --> 04:19:35,760 active transport, [music] the Dutch 5341 04:19:32,560 --> 04:19:37,439 economy saves 19 billion in healthcare 5342 04:19:35,760 --> 04:19:40,880 costs. 5343 04:19:37,439 --> 04:19:43,520 Urban density. By utilizing underwater 5344 04:19:40,880 --> 04:19:45,760 parking and vertical depots, Amsterdam 5345 04:19:43,520 --> 04:19:48,080 maintains a population density that 5346 04:19:45,760 --> 04:19:51,840 would be impossible with cars, keeping 5347 04:19:48,080 --> 04:19:54,560 real estate productivity at peak levels. 5348 04:19:51,840 --> 04:19:57,120 Resource independence. By reclaiming 5349 04:19:54,560 --> 04:19:59,120 metal from the Fiats depot, the city 5350 04:19:57,120 --> 04:20:01,680 insulates itself from [music] global 5351 04:19:59,120 --> 04:20:04,880 commodity price shocks. This is a 5352 04:20:01,680 --> 04:20:07,199 sustainable urban metabolism. The city 5353 04:20:04,880 --> 04:20:09,520 isn't just a place where people live. 5354 04:20:07,199 --> 04:20:12,880 It's a living organism that processes 5355 04:20:09,520 --> 04:20:15,120 resources with maximum efficiency. 5356 04:20:12,880 --> 04:20:17,520 Amsterdam's success has sent a clear 5357 04:20:15,120 --> 04:20:19,760 message to the rest of the continent. 5358 04:20:17,520 --> 04:20:22,560 Spatial efficiency is the only way 5359 04:20:19,760 --> 04:20:25,040 forward for the modern metropolis. 5360 04:20:22,560 --> 04:20:27,040 Across Europe, the bicycle has moved 5361 04:20:25,040 --> 04:20:29,199 from being a leisure tool to a 5362 04:20:27,040 --> 04:20:31,359 cornerstone of urban recovery and 5363 04:20:29,199 --> 04:20:34,080 economic resilience. 5364 04:20:31,359 --> 04:20:37,120 In Paris, a city once defined by its 5365 04:20:34,080 --> 04:20:39,680 congestion, the plan is investing 5366 04:20:37,120 --> 04:20:43,120 hundreds of millions to become 100% 5367 04:20:39,680 --> 04:20:45,439 cyclable. In Barcelona, the super blocks 5368 04:20:43,120 --> 04:20:49,840 are reclaiming entire intersections from 5369 04:20:45,439 --> 04:20:51,439 cars to create human centric lungs. 5370 04:20:49,840 --> 04:20:55,040 These aren't just environmental 5371 04:20:51,439 --> 04:20:57,439 projects. They are market corrections. 5372 04:20:55,040 --> 04:21:00,000 The cities are betting that a quieter, 5373 04:20:57,439 --> 04:21:02,399 cleaner, and more agile urban center 5374 04:21:00,000 --> 04:21:05,279 will attract more talent, more tourism, 5375 04:21:02,399 --> 04:21:07,840 and higher property values. 5376 04:21:05,279 --> 04:21:10,399 From the cycle superighways of London to 5377 04:21:07,840 --> 04:21:13,439 the industrial hubs of Germany, the 5378 04:21:10,399 --> 04:21:16,720 economic logic is consistent. Replacing 5379 04:21:13,439 --> 04:21:19,120 a 1 and 1/2 ton vehicle with a 15 kg 5380 04:21:16,720 --> 04:21:21,120 machine reduces the cost of maintenance 5381 04:21:19,120 --> 04:21:24,000 for the city and increases the 5382 04:21:21,120 --> 04:21:26,159 productivity of the citizen. 5383 04:21:24,000 --> 04:21:28,399 But while northern capitals have the 5384 04:21:26,159 --> 04:21:31,199 advantage of decades of infrastructure, 5385 04:21:28,399 --> 04:21:33,199 the real test is happening in the south. 5386 04:21:31,199 --> 04:21:35,439 In the Mediterranean, where the street 5387 04:21:33,199 --> 04:21:37,760 is a social space and the sun is a 5388 04:21:35,439 --> 04:21:40,399 constant resource, a new leader is 5389 04:21:37,760 --> 04:21:42,880 emerging. A city that has used the 5390 04:21:40,399 --> 04:21:46,680 Amsterdam blueprint to transform itself 5391 04:21:42,880 --> 04:21:46,680 at record speed. 5392 04:21:51,666 --> 04:21:55,640 [music] 5393 04:21:52,640 --> 04:21:55,640 Fore 5394 04:22:13,520 --> 04:22:16,520 speech. 5395 04:22:19,176 --> 04:22:21,195 >> [music] 5396 04:22:49,840 --> 04:22:55,880 >> If Amsterdam is the blueprint, [music] 5397 04:22:51,680 --> 04:22:55,880 Valencia is the laboratory. 5398 04:22:57,840 --> 04:23:00,840 is 5399 04:23:08,880 --> 04:23:12,199 not the fact. 5400 04:23:39,600 --> 04:23:43,760 In less than a decade, this 5401 04:23:41,279 --> 04:23:45,760 Mediterranean city has transitioned from 5402 04:23:43,760 --> 04:23:50,359 a car ccentric capital to a [music] 5403 04:23:45,760 --> 04:23:50,359 global reference in urban metabolism. 5404 04:24:12,000 --> 04:24:17,600 Valencia's transformation wasn't a 5405 04:24:14,319 --> 04:24:19,760 matter of vibes or romanticism. It was a 5406 04:24:17,600 --> 04:24:21,279 calculated investment in spatial 5407 04:24:19,760 --> 04:24:23,600 efficiency. 5408 04:24:21,279 --> 04:24:25,120 I think attracting top global talent 5409 04:24:23,600 --> 04:24:26,960 means that you need to have a vibrant, 5410 04:24:25,120 --> 04:24:29,040 livable city. And I think most young 5411 04:24:26,960 --> 04:24:31,120 people um particularly who are coming 5412 04:24:29,040 --> 04:24:33,279 into the workforce now are looking for 5413 04:24:31,120 --> 04:24:35,760 ways to get around a city that doesn't 5414 04:24:33,279 --> 04:24:38,319 rely on public transit. They don't want 5415 04:24:35,760 --> 04:24:40,003 to own a car um because car ownership is 5416 04:24:38,319 --> 04:24:41,840 a total burden. Having to find parking, 5417 04:24:40,003 --> 04:24:44,080 [music] insurance, cost of the car, all 5418 04:24:41,840 --> 04:24:46,319 of that. So having this accessible 5419 04:24:44,080 --> 04:24:47,279 infrastructure, cycling infrastructure 5420 04:24:46,319 --> 04:24:49,120 specifically, [music] 5421 04:24:47,279 --> 04:24:50,960 and in a city like Valencia that, you 5422 04:24:49,120 --> 04:24:52,960 know, already has a lot of reasons to 5423 04:24:50,960 --> 04:24:55,760 attract top talent just makes it that 5424 04:24:52,960 --> 04:24:57,279 much better. Um, cycling is a preferred 5425 04:24:55,760 --> 04:24:58,960 way to get around in Valencia, we're 5426 04:24:57,279 --> 04:25:01,279 number seven in the world for cycling to 5427 04:24:58,960 --> 04:25:03,439 work, for example. So adding a layer of 5428 04:25:01,279 --> 04:25:05,439 an easy subscription ebike service to 5429 04:25:03,439 --> 04:25:08,399 that just [music] again attracts even 5430 04:25:05,439 --> 04:25:11,520 more um top talent to the city. 5431 04:25:08,399 --> 04:25:13,600 By implementing the Anilo Crista, the 5432 04:25:11,520 --> 04:25:16,399 city has reclaimed high value public 5433 04:25:13,600 --> 04:25:18,720 space to boost local commerce and reduce 5434 04:25:16,399 --> 04:25:20,880 the toxic liability of the car. 5435 04:25:18,720 --> 04:25:22,640 >> It's important to remember that um often 5436 04:25:20,880 --> 04:25:24,319 times with cars, although they can fit 5437 04:25:22,640 --> 04:25:26,319 multiple people, most of the time it's 5438 04:25:24,319 --> 04:25:28,000 one person per one car. So when we're 5439 04:25:26,319 --> 04:25:30,000 asking about, you know, 10 bikes versus 5440 04:25:28,000 --> 04:25:32,239 one car, we're essentially saying 10 5441 04:25:30,000 --> 04:25:34,000 people versus one person. So we have a 5442 04:25:32,239 --> 04:25:35,439 10x multiplier on essentially everything 5443 04:25:34,000 --> 04:25:36,720 that's happening on that street. Whether 5444 04:25:35,439 --> 04:25:37,920 that be visits to the businesses, 5445 04:25:36,720 --> 04:25:39,600 whether that be transactions and 5446 04:25:37,920 --> 04:25:41,199 purchases, everything gets that 10x 5447 04:25:39,600 --> 04:25:42,080 multiplier and increases revenue for the 5448 04:25:41,199 --> 04:25:44,479 whole street. 5449 04:25:42,080 --> 04:25:46,880 >> In economics, this is the optimization 5450 04:25:44,479 --> 04:25:49,040 of land use. The same principle that 5451 04:25:46,880 --> 04:25:49,920 drove Amsterdam to build under its 5452 04:25:49,040 --> 04:25:51,760 canals. 5453 04:25:49,920 --> 04:25:54,560 >> If I'm cycling and I pass by, for 5454 04:25:51,760 --> 04:25:56,080 example, a bakery, go I smell that 5455 04:25:54,560 --> 04:25:57,293 bakery, I go, "Oh, you know what? Maybe 5456 04:25:56,080 --> 04:25:59,120 I'm going to stop in try something 5457 04:25:57,293 --> 04:26:00,399 [music] one of those products." Um, you 5458 04:25:59,120 --> 04:26:01,760 know, essentially become a patron of 5459 04:26:00,399 --> 04:26:03,199 that business. Whereas if I'm passing by 5460 04:26:01,760 --> 04:26:04,880 in a car, there's no chance of that 5461 04:26:03,199 --> 04:26:07,520 happening. And the other benefit [music] 5462 04:26:04,880 --> 04:26:09,359 is um car parking also has this sort of 5463 04:26:07,520 --> 04:26:11,040 psychological effect on the streets and 5464 04:26:09,359 --> 04:26:12,720 the people that live there. Car parking 5465 04:26:11,040 --> 04:26:14,800 makes the space feel a lot more closed 5466 04:26:12,720 --> 04:26:15,840 in and a lot more cramped than bike 5467 04:26:14,800 --> 04:26:17,439 parking, [music] which keeps the space 5468 04:26:15,840 --> 04:26:19,359 very nice and open. 5469 04:26:17,439 --> 04:26:22,239 >> Emerging businesses are shifting the 5470 04:26:19,359 --> 04:26:23,760 market from ownership to usership. 5471 04:26:22,239 --> 04:26:25,680 >> You know, our customers, [music] 5472 04:26:23,760 --> 04:26:27,760 they depend on their bikes as a reliable 5473 04:26:25,680 --> 04:26:29,840 way to get around. And so we use an 5474 04:26:27,760 --> 04:26:32,319 ownership as a service model. So [music] 5475 04:26:29,840 --> 04:26:34,560 instead of owning the asset yourself um 5476 04:26:32,319 --> 04:26:36,319 you subscribe to it from us and we think 5477 04:26:34,560 --> 04:26:38,399 that's what customers need in terms of 5478 04:26:36,319 --> 04:26:40,399 reliable day-to-day transportation. If 5479 04:26:38,399 --> 04:26:42,560 you look at something like Lime or Valen 5480 04:26:40,399 --> 04:26:45,120 BC they will have that idle asset 5481 04:26:42,560 --> 04:26:48,000 problem. Um and certainly ownership 5482 04:26:45,120 --> 04:26:49,760 obviously the same thing but with us you 5483 04:26:48,000 --> 04:26:52,159 know handling maintenance, battery 5484 04:26:49,760 --> 04:26:53,920 swapping, theft protection, insurance, 5485 04:26:52,159 --> 04:26:55,760 all of that. Um [music] and yet still 5486 04:26:53,920 --> 04:26:57,680 having access to the bike anytime you 5487 04:26:55,760 --> 04:27:00,399 want. It's your bike. Subscription 5488 04:26:57,680 --> 04:27:02,399 models like Swap Fiats, which already 5489 04:27:00,399 --> 04:27:05,199 dominate the Dutch market, are landing 5490 04:27:02,399 --> 04:27:07,359 in Valencia. These companies treat the 5491 04:27:05,199 --> 04:27:09,359 bike as a service, covering all 5492 04:27:07,359 --> 04:27:09,840 maintenance and repairs for a monthly 5493 04:27:09,359 --> 04:27:11,760 fee. 5494 04:27:09,840 --> 04:27:13,840 >> You ownership isn't necessarily a bad 5495 04:27:11,760 --> 04:27:15,600 investment, but I think um most 5496 04:27:13,840 --> 04:27:16,960 consumers are moving away from owning 5497 04:27:15,600 --> 04:27:18,800 things. You know, people are leasing 5498 04:27:16,960 --> 04:27:21,439 their cars, people are, you know, more 5499 04:27:18,800 --> 04:27:23,439 and more renting their homes. Um so for 5500 04:27:21,439 --> 04:27:25,760 us, a subscription model made sense that 5501 04:27:23,439 --> 04:27:27,760 and affordability. This eliminates the 5502 04:27:25,760 --> 04:27:30,720 fear of theft and long-term 5503 04:27:27,760 --> 04:27:32,960 depreciation, turning the bicycle into a 5504 04:27:30,720 --> 04:27:36,239 predictable, low- friction utility for 5505 04:27:32,960 --> 04:27:39,199 the modern worker. The impact extends to 5506 04:27:36,239 --> 04:27:41,120 logistics. In Valencia's historic 5507 04:27:39,199 --> 04:27:43,520 center, where large trucks are 5508 04:27:41,120 --> 04:27:45,520 increasingly restricted, last mile 5509 04:27:43,520 --> 04:27:46,960 delivery by cargo [music] bike is 5510 04:27:45,520 --> 04:27:49,359 becoming the gold standard for 5511 04:27:46,960 --> 04:27:52,479 efficiency. We are witnessing the birth 5512 04:27:49,359 --> 04:27:55,120 of microhubs, small urban distribution 5513 04:27:52,479 --> 04:27:57,199 centers that allow for zero emission 5514 04:27:55,120 --> 04:27:59,920 high-speed delivery in highdensity 5515 04:27:57,199 --> 04:28:02,399 zones. From the massive underwater 5516 04:27:59,920 --> 04:28:05,040 investments in Amsterdam to the emerging 5517 04:28:02,399 --> 04:28:07,920 subscription models in Valencia, the 5518 04:28:05,040 --> 04:28:10,560 message is clear. The bicycle is no 5519 04:28:07,920 --> 04:28:14,159 longer just a hobby. It is a financial 5520 04:28:10,560 --> 04:28:15,279 instrument and a spatial optimizer. 5521 04:28:14,159 --> 04:28:17,680 You know, when we were speaking to 5522 04:28:15,279 --> 04:28:20,000 consumers about how we could get them to 5523 04:28:17,680 --> 04:28:21,920 switch from a car to an ebike, it was 5524 04:28:20,000 --> 04:28:24,080 all about convenience. So, it was about 5525 04:28:21,920 --> 04:28:26,080 this idea that, you know, with a car, 5526 04:28:24,080 --> 04:28:27,840 you can go point A to point B whenever 5527 04:28:26,080 --> 04:28:29,600 you want. You're not relying on public 5528 04:28:27,840 --> 04:28:31,600 transit or any of those things. [music] 5529 04:28:29,600 --> 04:28:33,439 But if you need gas, you go to a gas 5530 04:28:31,600 --> 04:28:35,279 station, it takes 5 minutes, and you're 5531 04:28:33,439 --> 04:28:37,600 back on your way. People perceived 5532 04:28:35,279 --> 04:28:39,199 ebikes as inconvenient because, oh, what 5533 04:28:37,600 --> 04:28:40,720 if I forget to charge the battery? Then 5534 04:28:39,199 --> 04:28:43,199 it's just kind of a very heavy paper 5535 04:28:40,720 --> 04:28:44,960 weight. Um, but if we eliminate that 5536 04:28:43,199 --> 04:28:46,399 need for charging and people can just 5537 04:28:44,960 --> 04:28:49,040 come and collect a charge battery 5538 04:28:46,399 --> 04:28:52,000 anytime, um, it helps break that barrier 5539 04:28:49,040 --> 04:28:53,920 to entry for getting out of a car. By 5540 04:28:52,000 --> 04:28:56,159 integrating these new business models 5541 04:28:53,920 --> 04:28:58,720 with public planning, Valencia is 5542 04:28:56,159 --> 04:29:01,760 securing its place in the 21st century 5543 04:28:58,720 --> 04:29:04,319 economy. Proving that a dense functional 5544 04:29:01,760 --> 04:29:06,319 city isn't just a choice, it's a 5545 04:29:04,319 --> 04:29:08,159 competitive necessity. 5546 04:29:06,319 --> 04:29:10,239 >> Ultimately, private car ownership is 5547 04:29:08,159 --> 04:29:11,760 going to become obsolete. Cities are 5548 04:29:10,239 --> 04:29:13,439 building for pedestrians. They're 5549 04:29:11,760 --> 04:29:16,000 building for cycling. They're building 5550 04:29:13,439 --> 04:29:18,000 for livability, not for cars. 5551 04:29:16,000 --> 04:29:20,080 >> Throughout this documentary, we have 5552 04:29:18,000 --> 04:29:23,199 seen the gears of a massive economic 5553 04:29:20,080 --> 04:29:26,080 machine. But there is a final myth we 5554 04:29:23,199 --> 04:29:28,479 must dismantle. The idea that cities 5555 04:29:26,080 --> 04:29:30,960 like Amsterdam or Valencia look like 5556 04:29:28,479 --> 04:29:33,520 this because their citizens are simply 5557 04:29:30,960 --> 04:29:37,279 different. History tells a different 5558 04:29:33,520 --> 04:29:39,199 story. In the 1970s, Amsterdam was on 5559 04:29:37,279 --> 04:29:41,840 the verge of becoming another car 5560 04:29:39,199 --> 04:29:44,399 ccentric congested metropolis. 5561 04:29:41,840 --> 04:29:46,800 The transition we see today wasn't a 5562 04:29:44,399 --> 04:29:49,520 natural evolution of culture. [music] It 5563 04:29:46,800 --> 04:29:52,080 was a hostile takeover of urban space by 5564 04:29:49,520 --> 04:29:54,239 a policy and planning. When a city 5565 04:29:52,080 --> 04:29:56,640 reaches a certain density, [music] 5566 04:29:54,239 --> 04:29:58,960 freedom of choice in transport becomes a 5567 04:29:56,640 --> 04:30:02,479 mathematical impossibility. 5568 04:29:58,960 --> 04:30:04,960 If everyone chooses a car, no one moves. 5569 04:30:02,479 --> 04:30:07,920 In this highstakes environment, planning 5570 04:30:04,960 --> 04:30:10,640 is not an option. It is the only way to 5571 04:30:07,920 --> 04:30:14,239 survive. What is the ultimate harvest of 5572 04:30:10,640 --> 04:30:16,560 this planning? It is the [music] 3% GDP 5573 04:30:14,239 --> 04:30:19,439 boost we mentioned at the start. But 5574 04:30:16,560 --> 04:30:22,640 it's also found in the margins, 5575 04:30:19,439 --> 04:30:24,479 the fiscal savings by avoiding the need 5576 04:30:22,640 --> 04:30:26,960 for multi-billion [music] euro highway 5577 04:30:24,479 --> 04:30:29,920 expansions and massive health care costs 5578 04:30:26,960 --> 04:30:32,960 related to sedentary lifestyles. 5579 04:30:29,920 --> 04:30:35,199 The resilience factor by creating a 5580 04:30:32,960 --> 04:30:38,080 circular metropolis that can process its 5581 04:30:35,199 --> 04:30:40,080 own waste at the Kruu depot and turn it 5582 04:30:38,080 --> 04:30:43,199 back into capital. 5583 04:30:40,080 --> 04:30:45,359 The talent magnet in the global war for 5584 04:30:43,199 --> 04:30:47,760 talent. Highly skilled workers choose 5585 04:30:45,359 --> 04:30:50,319 cities based on livability. [music] 5586 04:30:47,760 --> 04:30:52,080 Amsterdam's bicycle infrastructure is 5587 04:30:50,319 --> 04:30:54,720 its most effective recruitment [music] 5588 04:30:52,080 --> 04:30:57,279 tool. We started this journey looking at 5589 04:30:54,720 --> 04:30:59,680 a simple machine, two wheels and a 5590 04:30:57,279 --> 04:31:02,080 frame. [music] But as we've seen, the 5591 04:30:59,680 --> 04:31:04,640 bicycle in Amsterdam is much more than a 5592 04:31:02,080 --> 04:31:08,000 transport mode. It is a financial 5593 04:31:04,640 --> 04:31:10,720 instrument. It is a spatial optimizer. 5594 04:31:08,000 --> 04:31:13,760 It is the invisible engine that allows a 5595 04:31:10,720 --> 04:31:16,640 medieval city to function as a 21st 5596 04:31:13,760 --> 04:31:19,600 century economic powerhouse. 5597 04:31:16,640 --> 04:31:22,080 The €85 million spent on underwater 5598 04:31:19,600 --> 04:31:25,120 tunnels, the complex logistics of the 5599 04:31:22,080 --> 04:31:28,319 Kruquest Depo, or the new Mediterranean 5600 04:31:25,120 --> 04:31:31,600 bike lanes are not costs. They are 5601 04:31:28,319 --> 04:31:34,080 investments in resilience. 5602 04:31:31,600 --> 04:31:36,319 In a world of rising energy prices and 5603 04:31:34,080 --> 04:31:39,359 shrinking urban space, the Amsterdam 5604 04:31:36,319 --> 04:31:41,520 model offers a glimpse into the future. 5605 04:31:39,359 --> 04:31:44,239 It proves that the most sophisticated 5606 04:31:41,520 --> 04:31:46,960 technology isn't always a new gadget. 5607 04:31:44,239 --> 04:31:50,319 Sometimes it's the perfect integration 5608 04:31:46,960 --> 04:31:53,319 of an old idea into a new circular 5609 04:31:50,319 --> 04:31:53,319 world. 5610 04:32:53,760 --> 04:32:56,760 Imagine 5611 04:33:09,199 --> 04:33:12,959 for a moment, what if your Bitcoin 5612 04:33:11,199 --> 04:33:15,039 holdings could purchase more than just 5613 04:33:12,959 --> 04:33:17,600 everyday items like coffee or the latest 5614 04:33:15,039 --> 04:33:19,439 gadgets? What if that digital currency 5615 04:33:17,600 --> 04:33:21,920 sitting in your wallet could actually 5616 04:33:19,439 --> 04:33:26,600 buy you a house or perhaps even an 5617 04:33:21,920 --> 04:33:26,600 entire commercial building? real estate. 5618 04:33:27,283 --> 04:33:29,303 [music] 5619 04:33:36,240 --> 04:33:39,840 Welcome to the fascinating and rapidly 5620 04:33:38,320 --> 04:33:42,160 evolving world of crypto real [music] 5621 04:33:39,840 --> 04:33:46,760 estate where digital assets are being 5622 04:33:42,160 --> 04:33:46,760 transformed into tangible property. 5623 04:33:50,561 --> 04:33:53,760 Today, we're taking a deep dive into the 5624 04:33:52,561 --> 04:33:55,840 revolutionary intersection of 5625 04:33:53,760 --> 04:33:58,080 cryptocurrency and property ownership, 5626 04:33:55,840 --> 04:34:00,240 examining in detail how [music] Bitcoin 5627 04:33:58,080 --> 04:34:02,561 is successfully transforming what were 5628 04:34:00,240 --> 04:34:04,719 once purely digital coins into tangible 5629 04:34:02,561 --> 04:34:06,240 physical real estate investments. 5630 04:34:04,719 --> 04:34:08,240 Whether you're an experienced crypto 5631 04:34:06,240 --> 04:34:10,160 investor looking to diversify your 5632 04:34:08,240 --> 04:34:11,840 portfolio or simply someone who's 5633 04:34:10,160 --> 04:34:14,000 curious about emerging trends in 5634 04:34:11,840 --> 04:34:15,920 property markets, this is an in-depth 5635 04:34:14,000 --> 04:34:17,520 look at how the landscape and future of 5636 04:34:15,920 --> 04:34:19,680 real estate transactions is 5637 04:34:17,520 --> 04:34:22,240 fundamentally evolving and changing 5638 04:34:19,680 --> 04:34:23,760 before our eyes. 5639 04:34:22,240 --> 04:34:25,680 The financial world is in [music] 5640 04:34:23,760 --> 04:34:28,000 constant transformation, but in this 5641 04:34:25,680 --> 04:34:29,600 decade, digitalization has accelerated 5642 04:34:28,000 --> 04:34:31,680 that change faster than anyone [music] 5643 04:34:29,600 --> 04:34:34,480 imagined. 5644 04:34:31,680 --> 04:34:36,719 Today, money, investments, and assets 5645 04:34:34,480 --> 04:34:39,439 flow through codes silent, transparent, 5646 04:34:36,719 --> 04:34:42,160 and borderless. Cryptocurrencies led by 5647 04:34:39,439 --> 04:34:44,160 Bitcoin mark the beginning of a new era. 5648 04:34:42,160 --> 04:34:45,920 They shook the foundations of the global 5649 04:34:44,160 --> 04:34:48,719 financial system, sparking [music] both 5650 04:34:45,920 --> 04:34:51,439 excitement and skepticism. Yet, behind 5651 04:34:48,719 --> 04:34:55,639 that phenomenon emerged something even 5652 04:34:51,439 --> 04:34:55,639 deeper. Tokenization. 5653 04:34:57,760 --> 04:35:00,760 Contraos 5654 04:35:16,639 --> 04:35:20,199 real world assets. 5655 04:35:40,240 --> 04:35:42,400 Moment. 5656 04:35:48,766 --> 04:35:50,785 >> [music] 5657 04:35:52,561 --> 04:35:56,561 >> tokenization brings. So it's the most 5658 04:35:54,000 --> 04:35:58,160 suitable, most modern ledger technology 5659 04:35:56,561 --> 04:35:58,799 uh ideal for modernizing capital 5660 04:35:58,160 --> 04:36:01,865 markets. 5661 04:35:58,799 --> 04:36:03,680 >> The idea is simple, the impact enormous. 5662 04:36:01,865 --> 04:36:05,920 [music] Each token represents a fraction 5663 04:36:03,680 --> 04:36:07,920 of an asset, a share, a bond, a 5664 04:36:05,920 --> 04:36:10,000 property, or even a work of art. All 5665 04:36:07,920 --> 04:36:13,055 recorded on a blockchain, a global 5666 04:36:10,000 --> 04:36:13,055 tamper proof ledger. [music] 5667 04:36:17,586 --> 04:36:19,605 [music] 5668 04:36:30,959 --> 04:36:34,359 Smart contracts. 5669 04:36:48,639 --> 04:36:52,160 We believe the next step going forward 5670 04:36:50,480 --> 04:36:55,439 will be the [music] tokenization of 5671 04:36:52,160 --> 04:36:57,920 financial assets. And that means every 5672 04:36:55,439 --> 04:37:00,719 stock, every bond will have its own 5673 04:36:57,920 --> 04:37:01,279 basically QIP. It'll be on one general 5674 04:37:00,719 --> 04:37:03,760 ledger. [music] 5675 04:37:01,279 --> 04:37:06,240 >> In other words, a token isn't just an 5676 04:37:03,760 --> 04:37:08,639 asset. It's a digital entry in a new 5677 04:37:06,240 --> 04:37:10,959 kind of ledger that is rewriting how 5678 04:37:08,639 --> 04:37:13,119 capital markets keep their books. 5679 04:37:10,959 --> 04:37:14,639 Investment in tokenized real estates 5680 04:37:13,119 --> 04:37:16,959 represents one of the most recent 5681 04:37:14,639 --> 04:37:19,199 advancements in the property industry. 5682 04:37:16,959 --> 04:37:21,680 Tokenization [music] enables houses and 5683 04:37:19,199 --> 04:37:25,719 apartments to be divided and sold and 5684 04:37:21,680 --> 04:37:25,719 numerous smaller units. 5685 04:37:34,879 --> 04:37:37,039 Fraction. 5686 04:37:46,879 --> 04:37:48,959 Fraction. 5687 04:38:12,000 --> 04:38:16,400 Small programs act like a bridge between 5688 04:38:13,920 --> 04:38:18,160 a property and online trading platform. 5689 04:38:16,400 --> 04:38:19,680 Hence tokens create a digital 5690 04:38:18,160 --> 04:38:21,039 representation of a property 5691 04:38:19,680 --> 04:38:24,039 facilitating its digital [music] 5692 04:38:21,039 --> 04:38:24,039 transfer. 5693 04:38:25,520 --> 04:38:28,799 The process [music] of purchasing a 5694 04:38:26,959 --> 04:38:30,879 property is still associated with 5695 04:38:28,799 --> 04:38:34,240 significant bureaucracy, lengthy 5696 04:38:30,879 --> 04:38:37,520 procedures and subsequent high costs. 5697 04:38:34,240 --> 04:38:40,000 So what exactly is crypto real estate? 5698 04:38:37,520 --> 04:38:42,240 At its core, the term refers to any real 5699 04:38:40,000 --> 04:38:45,039 estate transaction where cryptocurrency 5700 04:38:42,240 --> 04:38:47,520 plays a major role, either as a direct 5701 04:38:45,039 --> 04:38:51,879 form of payment, a converted asset, or 5702 04:38:47,520 --> 04:38:51,879 collateral for purchasing property. 5703 04:38:59,359 --> 04:39:02,359 Bitcoins 5704 04:39:19,279 --> 04:39:23,480 Crypto reference loans. 5705 04:39:43,120 --> 04:39:48,080 But the concept goes even deeper than 5706 04:39:45,840 --> 04:39:50,000 that. Crypto real estate includes buying 5707 04:39:48,080 --> 04:39:52,080 a home directly with Bitcoin or other 5708 04:39:50,000 --> 04:39:55,200 cryptocurrencies, using stable coins 5709 04:39:52,080 --> 04:39:58,160 like USDT or USDC for a more stable 5710 04:39:55,200 --> 04:40:00,080 purchase, converting crypto into fiat at 5711 04:39:58,160 --> 04:40:01,520 closing, taking out loans backed by 5712 04:40:00,080 --> 04:40:03,280 cryptocurrency to purchase real 5713 04:40:01,520 --> 04:40:05,200 property, tokenized real estate where 5714 04:40:03,280 --> 04:40:06,878 ownership is fractionalized into digital 5715 04:40:05,200 --> 04:40:08,480 token, blockchain based property 5716 04:40:06,878 --> 04:40:11,480 records, and smart contract driven 5717 04:40:08,480 --> 04:40:11,480 transactions. 5718 04:40:23,680 --> 04:40:27,080 Stable coins. 5719 04:40:40,320 --> 04:40:43,718 Stable coins. 5720 04:40:52,400 --> 04:40:57,638 EMT. E A R 5721 04:40:58,000 --> 04:41:01,000 E 5722 04:41:04,000 --> 04:41:10,200 10 5723 04:41:06,080 --> 04:41:10,200 U US USDT 5724 04:41:14,000 --> 04:41:17,000 USDC 5725 04:41:29,440 --> 04:41:32,440 US 5726 04:41:36,798 --> 04:41:40,280 stable coinry. 5727 04:42:01,040 --> 04:42:04,040 for 5728 04:42:23,040 --> 04:42:26,440 stable coins. 5729 04:42:32,480 --> 04:42:36,878 It's an evolution in how value moves 5730 04:42:34,718 --> 04:42:39,040 around the world. And for the first 5731 04:42:36,878 --> 04:42:43,200 time, digital wealth is becoming a 5732 04:42:39,040 --> 04:42:43,200 direct pathway to physical ownership. 5733 04:42:45,040 --> 04:42:48,798 To understand how we arrived at this 5734 04:42:47,040 --> 04:42:51,440 moment, we need to step back and look at 5735 04:42:48,798 --> 04:42:53,520 the timeline. Bitcoin launched in 2009 5736 04:42:51,440 --> 04:42:55,360 as a peer-to-peer digital alternative to 5737 04:42:53,520 --> 04:42:57,200 money. In its early years, the idea of 5738 04:42:55,360 --> 04:42:59,520 using Bitcoin to buy real estate was 5739 04:42:57,200 --> 04:43:01,840 laughable. But Bitcoin grew, first 5740 04:42:59,520 --> 04:43:04,320 crossing $1, then a 100, then a 5741 04:43:01,840 --> 04:43:06,958 thousand, then tens of thousands. A new 5742 04:43:04,320 --> 04:43:08,958 wave of wealth was created. Suddenly, 5743 04:43:06,958 --> 04:43:11,040 early adopters who once bought pizza 5744 04:43:08,958 --> 04:43:14,080 with Bitcoin now had enough digital 5745 04:43:11,040 --> 04:43:16,480 value to buy entire homes, and sellers 5746 04:43:14,080 --> 04:43:18,480 began paying attention. The first public 5747 04:43:16,480 --> 04:43:21,600 record of a property purchased fully in 5748 04:43:18,480 --> 04:43:23,840 Bitcoin dates back to 2017. From there, 5749 04:43:21,600 --> 04:43:26,320 the trend spread to luxury markets. 5750 04:43:23,840 --> 04:43:28,718 Miami, Los Angeles, New York, Dubai, and 5751 04:43:26,320 --> 04:43:30,560 London. Developers began marketing 5752 04:43:28,718 --> 04:43:33,280 properties specifically to crypto 5753 04:43:30,560 --> 04:43:36,160 buyers. Brokers started specializing in 5754 04:43:33,280 --> 04:43:37,680 crypto transactions. Escrow companies 5755 04:43:36,160 --> 04:43:39,520 adapted. 5756 04:43:37,680 --> 04:43:42,878 Even governments began studying 5757 04:43:39,520 --> 04:43:45,360 blockchainbased property registries. 5758 04:43:42,878 --> 04:43:47,840 Buying real estate with Bitcoin isn't 5759 04:43:45,360 --> 04:43:49,760 science fiction. Some sellers now accept 5760 04:43:47,840 --> 04:43:51,760 crypto directly, while others work 5761 04:43:49,760 --> 04:43:54,958 through brokers who convert Bitcoin into 5762 04:43:51,760 --> 04:43:57,040 local currency. The process is faster, 5763 04:43:54,958 --> 04:43:59,360 borderless, and sometimes even tax 5764 04:43:57,040 --> 04:44:01,840 efficient if you know the rules. Things 5765 04:43:59,360 --> 04:44:04,560 that sounded impossible in 2010 became 5766 04:44:01,840 --> 04:44:07,120 normal by 2020. And now [music] in the 5767 04:44:04,560 --> 04:44:09,200 2020s, cryptocurrency is becoming a 5768 04:44:07,120 --> 04:44:11,600 serious player in global real estate. 5769 04:44:09,200 --> 04:44:12,638 The crypto boom has created a new class 5770 04:44:11,600 --> 04:44:14,480 of investors. [music] 5771 04:44:12,638 --> 04:44:16,958 High- netw worth individuals want to 5772 04:44:14,480 --> 04:44:19,440 diversify, and real estate is a safe, 5773 04:44:16,958 --> 04:44:22,292 tangible asset. From luxury homes in 5774 04:44:19,440 --> 04:44:24,240 Miami to condos in Dubai, Bitcoin buyers 5775 04:44:22,292 --> 04:44:26,400 [music] are making their mark. Let's 5776 04:44:24,240 --> 04:44:28,160 look at a few real world examples to 5777 04:44:26,400 --> 04:44:31,840 understand how crypto real estate works 5778 04:44:28,160 --> 04:44:34,320 in practice. Case study one. In 2021, a 5779 04:44:31,840 --> 04:44:36,878 luxury penthouse at Arte by Antonio 5780 04:44:34,320 --> 04:44:40,320 Satario in Surfside, Florida made 5781 04:44:36,878 --> 04:44:43,360 history. The property sold for $22.5 5782 04:44:40,320 --> 04:44:45,360 million paid entirely in cryptocurrency. 5783 04:44:43,360 --> 04:44:47,520 The largest publicly known real estate 5784 04:44:45,360 --> 04:44:49,280 transaction completed using digital 5785 04:44:47,520 --> 04:44:50,718 assets [music] at the time. A 5786 04:44:49,280 --> 04:44:53,040 developer's decision to accept 5787 04:44:50,718 --> 04:44:55,120 cryptocurrency had paid off. The sale 5788 04:44:53,040 --> 04:44:56,798 came just weeks after the developer 5789 04:44:55,120 --> 04:44:58,560 announced it would begin accepting 5790 04:44:56,798 --> 04:44:59,680 cryptocurrency payments through a 5791 04:44:58,560 --> 04:45:01,520 partnership with blockchain [music] 5792 04:44:59,680 --> 04:45:03,360 platform Solid Block. According to 5793 04:45:01,520 --> 04:45:05,680 Forbes, the deal demonstrated that 5794 04:45:03,360 --> 04:45:08,480 crypto was no longer just a speculative 5795 04:45:05,680 --> 04:45:10,958 asset. It had become a viable method for 5796 04:45:08,480 --> 04:45:13,760 purchasing high-end real estate. Case 5797 04:45:10,958 --> 04:45:15,360 study 2. in Dubai. One of the earliest 5798 04:45:13,760 --> 04:45:17,840 large-scale experiments [music] with 5799 04:45:15,360 --> 04:45:20,480 crypto real estate unfolded at Aston 5800 04:45:17,840 --> 04:45:22,878 Plaza and residences located in Dubai 5801 04:45:20,480 --> 04:45:24,518 Science Park. Marketed as one of the 5802 04:45:22,878 --> 04:45:26,718 first major developments in the region 5803 04:45:24,518 --> 04:45:28,878 [music] to accept Bitcoin, the project 5804 04:45:26,718 --> 04:45:30,480 offered apartments priced directly in 5805 04:45:28,878 --> 04:45:32,480 cryptocurrency. 5806 04:45:30,480 --> 04:45:35,200 Buyers were able to commit funds using 5807 04:45:32,480 --> 04:45:37,040 Bitcoin, capturing global attention. But 5808 04:45:35,200 --> 04:45:40,000 the story also revealed the risks of 5809 04:45:37,040 --> 04:45:41,280 innovation. Originally advertised as a 5810 04:45:40,000 --> 04:45:43,840 $325 [music] 5811 04:45:41,280 --> 04:45:45,280 million development, the project later 5812 04:45:43,840 --> 04:45:47,840 stalled and its completion [music] 5813 04:45:45,280 --> 04:45:50,160 became uncertain. While crypto payments 5814 04:45:47,840 --> 04:45:52,638 were accepted, it remains unclear 5815 04:45:50,160 --> 04:45:54,718 whether all buyers ultimately received 5816 04:45:52,638 --> 04:45:56,480 finished properties. The case 5817 04:45:54,718 --> 04:45:58,578 highlighted both the promise and the 5818 04:45:56,480 --> 04:46:01,520 pitfalls of early crypto adoption 5819 04:45:58,578 --> 04:46:03,840 [music] real estate. Case study three. 5820 04:46:01,520 --> 04:46:05,680 In 2025, Spain recorded one of [music] 5821 04:46:03,840 --> 04:46:08,400 its first officially reported property 5822 04:46:05,680 --> 04:46:10,368 sales completed with Bitcoin. A property 5823 04:46:08,400 --> 04:46:12,560 in Madrid valued at approximately 5824 04:46:10,368 --> 04:46:14,160 [music] 1.5 million of euros was 5825 04:46:12,560 --> 04:46:16,560 purchased by an international buyer 5826 04:46:14,160 --> 04:46:18,878 using Bitcoin. The transaction followed 5827 04:46:16,560 --> 04:46:21,440 standard real estate procedures, 5828 04:46:18,878 --> 04:46:23,680 including escrow, legal compliance, and 5829 04:46:21,440 --> 04:46:25,680 the conversion of crypto into euros for 5830 04:46:23,680 --> 04:46:27,760 the seller. It marked a significant 5831 04:46:25,680 --> 04:46:29,520 milestone showing that cryptocurrency 5832 04:46:27,760 --> 04:46:31,920 could integrate into traditional real 5833 04:46:29,520 --> 04:46:34,958 estate systems even in highly regulated 5834 04:46:31,920 --> 04:46:37,360 European markets. Case study 4. In the 5835 04:46:34,958 --> 04:46:39,920 United States, crypto adoption hasn't 5836 04:46:37,360 --> 04:46:42,560 been limited to coastal tech hubs. An 5837 04:46:39,920 --> 04:46:44,718 agent with Safaby International Realy in 5838 04:46:42,560 --> 04:46:47,680 Delaware reported selling a luxury 5839 04:46:44,718 --> 04:46:49,840 property [music] for $175 million paid 5840 04:46:47,680 --> 04:46:51,840 in Bitcoin. Believed to be one of the 5841 04:46:49,840 --> 04:46:54,160 state's first major real estate 5842 04:46:51,840 --> 04:46:56,400 transactions involving cryptocurrency, 5843 04:46:54,160 --> 04:46:58,638 the sale was widely publicized as a 5844 04:46:56,400 --> 04:47:00,160 local milestone, signaling that crypto 5845 04:46:58,638 --> 04:47:02,000 real estate was beginning to reach 5846 04:47:00,160 --> 04:47:06,120 beyond niche [music] markets and into 5847 04:47:02,000 --> 04:47:06,120 everyday property transactions. 5848 04:47:06,718 --> 04:47:10,200 Genius Act. 5849 04:47:11,284 --> 04:47:13,302 [music] 5850 04:47:17,178 --> 04:47:21,080 [music] 5851 04:47:18,080 --> 04:47:21,080 Apostable 5852 04:47:23,280 --> 04:47:26,280 coins. 5853 04:47:52,718 --> 04:47:55,718 prote. 5854 04:48:16,080 --> 04:48:19,638 Conservator. for us. 5855 04:48:28,958 --> 04:48:31,958 really. 5856 04:48:57,760 --> 04:49:02,320 Taken together, these cases tell a 5857 04:48:59,680 --> 04:49:04,480 larger story, one of experimentation, 5858 04:49:02,320 --> 04:49:06,798 success, setbacks, and growing 5859 04:49:04,480 --> 04:49:09,120 legitimacy. Crypto real estate is no 5860 04:49:06,798 --> 04:49:11,280 longer hypothetical. It's happening 5861 04:49:09,120 --> 04:49:15,040 transaction by transaction across the 5862 04:49:11,280 --> 04:49:16,878 globe. But it's not all smooth sailing. 5863 04:49:15,040 --> 04:49:19,280 Crypto's value can be volatile. 5864 04:49:16,878 --> 04:49:21,760 Regulations vary by country, and tax 5865 04:49:19,280 --> 04:49:24,080 implications can be tricky. First, 5866 04:49:21,760 --> 04:49:26,240 volatility. Bitcoin and other 5867 04:49:24,080 --> 04:49:28,080 cryptocurrencies can move dramatically, 5868 04:49:26,240 --> 04:49:29,920 sometimes losing or gaining a third of 5869 04:49:28,080 --> 04:49:32,240 their value in weeks. For buyers who 5870 04:49:29,920 --> 04:49:35,680 convert at closing, rapid swings can 5871 04:49:32,240 --> 04:49:38,798 erase gains or spike costs in hours. 5872 04:49:35,680 --> 04:49:40,958 Second, transaction mechanics and title. 5873 04:49:38,798 --> 04:49:42,958 Even when a seller accepts crypto, most 5874 04:49:40,958 --> 04:49:44,400 governments and land registries require 5875 04:49:42,958 --> 04:49:46,798 deeds to be issued in the local 5876 04:49:44,400 --> 04:49:48,958 currency. That usually means an 5877 04:49:46,798 --> 04:49:50,878 intermediary converts crypto to fiat 5878 04:49:48,958 --> 04:49:53,120 before the legal title is registered, 5879 04:49:50,878 --> 04:49:54,798 adding counterparty risk and an extra 5880 04:49:53,120 --> 04:49:57,680 step that can delay and complicate 5881 04:49:54,798 --> 04:49:59,440 settlements. Third, taxes. In many 5882 04:49:57,680 --> 04:50:01,520 jurisdictions, authorities treat crypto 5883 04:49:59,440 --> 04:50:03,440 as property, not currency, which makes 5884 04:50:01,520 --> 04:50:05,760 nearly every transfer a taxable event. 5885 04:50:03,440 --> 04:50:07,840 That includes sales, exchanges, and 5886 04:50:05,760 --> 04:50:10,000 sometimes even payments for goods or 5887 04:50:07,840 --> 04:50:12,240 services. Buyers and sellers must track 5888 04:50:10,000 --> 04:50:14,400 cost basis gains and report the 5889 04:50:12,240 --> 04:50:16,958 transactions accurately or face audits 5890 04:50:14,400 --> 04:50:18,878 and penalties. Fourth, lending and 5891 04:50:16,958 --> 04:50:20,480 counterparty risk. Cryptobacked lending 5892 04:50:18,878 --> 04:50:22,320 exploded in the previous market cycle, 5893 04:50:20,480 --> 04:50:24,560 but it ended with high-profile collapses 5894 04:50:22,320 --> 04:50:26,400 and bankruptcies. When platforms fail, 5895 04:50:24,560 --> 04:50:28,320 borrowers and depositors can lose access 5896 04:50:26,400 --> 04:50:30,000 to funds. Collateral can be liquidated 5897 04:50:28,320 --> 04:50:31,840 at a loss and promise liquidity 5898 04:50:30,000 --> 04:50:33,680 disappears, a danger for anyone relying 5899 04:50:31,840 --> 04:50:35,840 on thirdparty services to bridge crypto 5900 04:50:33,680 --> 04:50:37,200 and property purchases. 5901 04:50:35,840 --> 04:50:39,680 Fifth, compliance and 5902 04:50:37,200 --> 04:50:41,360 anti-moneylaundering rules. Regulators 5903 04:50:39,680 --> 04:50:43,280 and global bodies have tightened rules 5904 04:50:41,360 --> 04:50:45,440 around virtual assets to prevent elicit 5905 04:50:43,280 --> 04:50:47,840 flows. Real estate transactions are high 5906 04:50:45,440 --> 04:50:49,520 on that list, meaning additional KYC, 5907 04:50:47,840 --> 04:50:51,680 source of fund checks, and reporting 5908 04:50:49,520 --> 04:50:53,520 requirements. Failure to meet these 5909 04:50:51,680 --> 04:50:55,760 standards can stall a sale, trigger 5910 04:50:53,520 --> 04:50:58,958 investigations, or expose participants 5911 04:50:55,760 --> 04:51:01,200 to legal liability. Sixth, operational 5912 04:50:58,958 --> 04:51:03,040 and technical risk. Crypto transactions 5913 04:51:01,200 --> 04:51:04,560 are irreversible. A single wrong 5914 04:51:03,040 --> 04:51:06,240 character in a wallet address or a 5915 04:51:04,560 --> 04:51:08,000 fishing attack on an email with wiring 5916 04:51:06,240 --> 04:51:09,360 instructions can send millions to the 5917 04:51:08,000 --> 04:51:11,200 wrong place and there's no bank to 5918 04:51:09,360 --> 04:51:13,120 reverse the transfer. Seventh, 5919 04:51:11,200 --> 04:51:15,200 technology risk. Smart contracts 5920 04:51:13,120 --> 04:51:17,040 tokenization and new platforms bring 5921 04:51:15,200 --> 04:51:18,878 innovation, but also software bugs and 5922 04:51:17,040 --> 04:51:21,040 design flaws. A poorly written smart 5923 04:51:18,878 --> 04:51:23,280 contract or an unodudited tokenization 5924 04:51:21,040 --> 04:51:26,080 platform can freeze assets, misallocate 5925 04:51:23,280 --> 04:51:28,798 ownership shares, or enable exploits. 5926 04:51:26,080 --> 04:51:30,400 Finally, market and reputational risk. 5927 04:51:28,798 --> 04:51:32,080 Developers and brokers who accept crypto 5928 04:51:30,400 --> 04:51:33,920 can attract new buyers, but they also 5929 04:51:32,080 --> 04:51:35,680 take on greater scrutiny, regulatory 5930 04:51:33,920 --> 04:51:37,520 compliance burdens, and the risk that 5931 04:51:35,680 --> 04:51:39,680 projects promoted with crypto funding 5932 04:51:37,520 --> 04:51:42,718 may underdel, stall, or become entangled 5933 04:51:39,680 --> 04:51:45,040 in legal disputes. In short, crypto can 5934 04:51:42,718 --> 04:51:47,680 speed and globalize property deals. But 5935 04:51:45,040 --> 04:51:50,320 it also layers on volatility, regulatory 5936 04:51:47,680 --> 04:51:52,400 complexity, and new failure modes. For 5937 04:51:50,320 --> 04:51:54,718 buyers, sellers, and advisers, the 5938 04:51:52,400 --> 04:51:56,560 lesson is clear. proceed with rigorous 5939 04:51:54,718 --> 04:51:59,040 legal counsel, hardened custody 5940 04:51:56,560 --> 04:52:01,120 practices, and transparent compliance. 5941 04:51:59,040 --> 04:52:04,120 The opportunity is real, but so are the 5942 04:52:01,120 --> 04:52:04,120 pitfalls. 5943 04:52:22,718 --> 04:52:27,840 Still, the opportunities are huge. A new 5944 04:52:25,760 --> 04:52:30,240 generation of buyers is turning digital 5945 04:52:27,840 --> 04:52:32,718 value into physical assets. For many, 5946 04:52:30,240 --> 04:52:35,440 Bitcoin isn't just a [music] currency. 5947 04:52:32,718 --> 04:52:36,718 It's a gateway to ownership. 5948 04:52:35,440 --> 04:52:38,788 One of the biggest shifts is 5949 04:52:36,718 --> 04:52:40,798 tokenization. Instead of buying an 5950 04:52:38,788 --> 04:52:42,638 [music] entire building, investors can 5951 04:52:40,798 --> 04:52:45,120 now purchase fractional ownership 5952 04:52:42,638 --> 04:52:46,878 through blockchainbased tokens. This 5953 04:52:45,120 --> 04:52:48,878 lowers the barrier to entry, allowing 5954 04:52:46,878 --> 04:52:50,480 smaller investors to access real estate 5955 04:52:48,878 --> 04:52:51,760 markets that were once reserved for 5956 04:52:50,480 --> 04:52:54,760 institutions and [music] the ultra 5957 04:52:51,760 --> 04:52:54,760 wealthy. 5958 04:53:00,798 --> 04:53:03,798 forch. 5959 04:53:10,226 --> 04:53:12,246 [music] 5960 04:53:29,876 --> 04:53:31,896 >> [music] 5961 04:53:37,738 --> 04:53:42,080 [music] 5962 04:53:39,200 --> 04:53:44,080 >> Tokenization also brings liquidity to an 5963 04:53:42,080 --> 04:53:46,480 industry that has traditionally been 5964 04:53:44,080 --> 04:53:48,240 slow and illquid. Real estate 5965 04:53:46,480 --> 04:53:50,320 transactions [music] can take months. 5966 04:53:48,240 --> 04:53:53,200 Tokenized shares can potentially be 5967 04:53:50,320 --> 04:53:55,520 transferred in minutes. Crypto is also 5968 04:53:53,200 --> 04:53:57,760 reshaping crossber real estate. 5969 04:53:55,520 --> 04:53:59,200 International buyers often face currency 5970 04:53:57,760 --> 04:54:01,920 controls, wire delays, [music] and 5971 04:53:59,200 --> 04:54:03,840 banking restrictions. Cryptocurrency 5972 04:54:01,920 --> 04:54:05,360 allows capital to move globally with 5973 04:54:03,840 --> 04:54:07,200 fewer friction points, [music] opening 5974 04:54:05,360 --> 04:54:09,360 markets to buyers who were previously 5975 04:54:07,200 --> 04:54:11,280 locked out. As a result, cities that 5976 04:54:09,360 --> 04:54:13,280 embrace crypto-friendly regulations are 5977 04:54:11,280 --> 04:54:15,040 attracting global capital faster. 5978 04:54:13,280 --> 04:54:16,400 Developers are responding by marketing 5979 04:54:15,040 --> 04:54:18,638 properties directly to crypto [music] 5980 04:54:16,400 --> 04:54:20,798 holders, not as a novelty, but as a 5981 04:54:18,638 --> 04:54:22,320 strategy. Governments are also exploring 5982 04:54:20,798 --> 04:54:24,638 blockchain for land registries [music] 5983 04:54:22,320 --> 04:54:26,560 and property records. Immutable ledgers 5984 04:54:24,638 --> 04:54:28,240 can reduce disputes, prevent title 5985 04:54:26,560 --> 04:54:30,480 fraud, [music] and provide permanent 5986 04:54:28,240 --> 04:54:32,080 verifiable ownership history, especially 5987 04:54:30,480 --> 04:54:34,400 in regions where property rights are 5988 04:54:32,080 --> 04:54:36,480 difficult to enforce. This isn't a 5989 04:54:34,400 --> 04:54:39,200 complete replacement of traditional real 5990 04:54:36,480 --> 04:54:40,878 estate. It's a transformation. Crypto 5991 04:54:39,200 --> 04:54:43,120 doesn't eliminate the fundamentals. 5992 04:54:40,878 --> 04:54:44,638 Location, demand, and due diligence 5993 04:54:43,120 --> 04:54:46,638 still matter, but [music] it changes how 5994 04:54:44,638 --> 04:54:48,798 value moves, how quickly deals happen, 5995 04:54:46,638 --> 04:54:50,798 and who gets access. So, what does all 5996 04:54:48,798 --> 04:54:52,560 of this mean for you as an investor or 5997 04:54:50,798 --> 04:54:54,000 future home buyer? It means new 5998 04:54:52,560 --> 04:54:55,920 opportunities are emerging. 5999 04:54:54,000 --> 04:54:58,240 Opportunities to leverage your crypto 6000 04:54:55,920 --> 04:55:00,160 holdings. Opportunities to participate 6001 04:54:58,240 --> 04:55:02,240 in [music] international markets more 6002 04:55:00,160 --> 04:55:04,200 easily. Opportunities to acquire 6003 04:55:02,240 --> 04:55:06,218 property faster and more efficiently. 6004 04:55:04,200 --> 04:55:06,218 [music] 6005 04:55:12,878 --> 04:55:15,878 Professor, 6006 04:55:21,882 --> 04:55:23,902 [music] 6007 04:55:27,120 --> 04:55:30,120 Bureaucratic 6008 04:55:31,708 --> 04:55:33,728 [music] 6009 04:55:44,154 --> 04:55:46,174 [music] 6010 04:55:55,290 --> 04:56:00,040 >> [music] 6011 04:55:56,878 --> 04:56:00,040 >> Real estate 6012 04:56:05,920 --> 04:56:08,444 Foreign [music] 6013 04:56:16,904 --> 04:56:18,924 [music] 6014 04:56:37,866 --> 04:56:39,884 >> [music] 6015 04:56:46,320 --> 04:56:51,520 >> But like any emerging space, education 6016 04:56:49,280 --> 04:56:53,680 is key. Working with crypto friendly 6017 04:56:51,520 --> 04:56:56,160 agents, attorneys, and [music] escrow 6018 04:56:53,680 --> 04:56:58,240 companies is essential. 6019 04:56:56,160 --> 04:57:00,000 Understanding your local regulations is 6020 04:56:58,240 --> 04:57:01,680 crucial, and ensuring the security of 6021 04:57:00,000 --> 04:57:03,410 your crypto wallet is absolutely 6022 04:57:01,680 --> 04:57:04,000 non-negotiable. 6023 04:57:03,410 --> 04:57:07,000 [music] 6024 04:57:04,000 --> 04:57:07,000 Activos. 6025 04:57:15,200 --> 04:57:17,218 >> [music] 6026 04:57:42,958 --> 04:57:45,120 >> compliment. 6027 04:57:47,294 --> 04:57:49,314 >> [music] 6028 04:57:52,160 --> 04:57:55,160 >> Composition. 6029 04:58:01,050 --> 04:58:03,070 >> [music] 6030 04:58:13,496 --> 04:58:15,516 [music] 6031 04:58:17,680 --> 04:58:20,680 >> Funament 6032 04:58:29,872 --> 04:58:34,680 [music] 6033 04:58:31,680 --> 04:58:34,680 Maximos 6034 04:58:41,280 --> 04:58:44,280 Maximastoch. 6035 04:58:47,556 --> 04:58:49,576 [music] 6036 04:58:54,106 --> 04:58:56,124 [music] 6037 04:59:07,208 --> 04:59:10,480 [music] 6038 04:59:08,560 --> 04:59:12,560 The cryptocurrency market has entered 6039 04:59:10,480 --> 04:59:14,958 the opening days of 2026 with [music] 6040 04:59:12,560 --> 04:59:17,920 renewed momentum. After a volatile end 6041 04:59:14,958 --> 04:59:19,440 to 2025, prices across major digital 6042 04:59:17,920 --> 04:59:21,120 assets have moved sharply higher, 6043 04:59:19,440 --> 04:59:23,582 drawing attention from both retail 6044 04:59:21,120 --> 04:59:25,280 traders and institutional investors. In 6045 04:59:23,582 --> 04:59:27,120 [music] early January, the total 6046 04:59:25,280 --> 04:59:29,680 cryptocurrency market capitalization 6047 04:59:27,120 --> 04:59:31,760 climbed to around $3.2 trillion, 6048 04:59:29,680 --> 04:59:32,752 according to aggregated data from major 6049 04:59:31,760 --> 04:59:32,878 market trackers. 6050 04:59:32,752 --> 04:59:34,560 >> [music] 6051 04:59:32,878 --> 04:59:37,120 >> This represents a meaningful rebound 6052 04:59:34,560 --> 04:59:38,638 from late 2025 levels with the market 6053 04:59:37,120 --> 04:59:40,798 adding hundreds of billions of dollars 6054 04:59:38,638 --> 04:59:42,798 in value over a relatively short period. 6055 04:59:40,798 --> 04:59:44,560 While exact figures vary, the direction 6056 04:59:42,798 --> 04:59:46,080 is clear. Capital has returned to the 6057 04:59:44,560 --> 04:59:47,920 crypto market at the start of the year. 6058 04:59:46,080 --> 04:59:50,480 At the center of this move is Bitcoin, 6059 04:59:47,920 --> 04:59:52,798 which rallied toward the $93,000 level 6060 04:59:50,480 --> 04:59:54,320 in the first week of January. As the 6061 04:59:52,798 --> 04:59:56,638 largest and most influential [music] 6062 04:59:54,320 --> 04:59:58,560 digital asset, Bitcoin continues to act 6063 04:59:56,638 --> 04:59:59,600 as the market's primary anchor, and its 6064 04:59:58,560 --> 05:00:02,080 strength has [music] helped lift 6065 04:59:59,600 --> 05:00:03,920 sentiment across the broader ecosystem. 6066 05:00:02,080 --> 05:00:06,000 Historically, strong Bitcoin [music] 6067 05:00:03,920 --> 05:00:08,240 performance has often preceded periods 6068 05:00:06,000 --> 05:00:10,718 of increased activity in alternative 6069 05:00:08,240 --> 05:00:12,160 cryptocurrencies, and [music] early 2026 6070 05:00:10,718 --> 05:00:14,240 appears to be following a similar 6071 05:00:12,160 --> 05:00:16,240 pattern. Another key factor has been 6072 05:00:14,240 --> 05:00:18,000 renewed institutional participation, 6073 05:00:16,240 --> 05:00:20,160 particularly through spot Bitcoin and 6074 05:00:18,000 --> 05:00:22,160 Ethereum exchange [music] traded funds. 6075 05:00:20,160 --> 05:00:24,240 Reports from early January indicate 6076 05:00:22,160 --> 05:00:26,000 notable ETF inflows, suggesting that 6077 05:00:24,240 --> 05:00:28,000 traditional investors are once again 6078 05:00:26,000 --> 05:00:29,600 increasing exposure to digital assets. 6079 05:00:28,000 --> 05:00:31,046 The current momentum appears to be 6080 05:00:29,600 --> 05:00:33,200 driven by a combination of factors, 6081 05:00:31,046 --> 05:00:35,840 [music] including Bitcoin's price 6082 05:00:33,200 --> 05:00:37,840 recovery, increased ETF inflows, [music] 6083 05:00:35,840 --> 05:00:39,440 improved global risk sentiment, 6084 05:00:37,840 --> 05:00:41,840 expectations of more supportive 6085 05:00:39,440 --> 05:00:43,520 regulatory and macroeconomic conditions. 6086 05:00:41,840 --> 05:00:45,680 As 2026 begins, [music] the 6087 05:00:43,520 --> 05:00:47,840 cryptocurrency market finds itself at a 6088 05:00:45,680 --> 05:00:49,680 familiar crossroads. Renewed optimism 6089 05:00:47,840 --> 05:00:51,600 balanced against persistent uncertainty. 6090 05:00:49,680 --> 05:00:53,440 Whether this earlier strength marks the 6091 05:00:51,600 --> 05:00:55,120 beginning of a sustained trend or simply 6092 05:00:53,440 --> 05:00:57,120 another chapter in crypto's cyclical 6093 05:00:55,120 --> 05:00:59,760 nature is a question that only time will 6094 05:00:57,120 --> 05:01:02,480 answer. For now, the [music] message 6095 05:00:59,760 --> 05:01:04,480 from the market is clear. Crypto is once 6096 05:01:02,480 --> 05:01:06,080 again commanding attention. If you 6097 05:01:04,480 --> 05:01:07,728 approach crypto real estate with 6098 05:01:06,080 --> 05:01:10,480 knowledge and preparation, the rewards 6099 05:01:07,728 --> 05:01:13,200 [music] can be extraordinary. Bitcoin 6100 05:01:10,480 --> 05:01:14,958 the bricks isn't just a catchy phrase. 6101 05:01:13,200 --> 05:01:17,440 It's the future of real estate 6102 05:01:14,958 --> 05:01:19,360 investment. If you want to stay ahead of 6103 05:01:17,440 --> 05:01:21,600 the curve, now's the [music] time to 6104 05:01:19,360 --> 05:01:24,600 learn how crypto can open doors. 6105 05:01:21,600 --> 05:01:24,600 Literally. 6106 05:01:35,200 --> 05:01:38,200 Explorer 6107 05:01:48,338 --> 05:01:50,358 [music] 6108 05:01:54,878 --> 05:01:57,878 control. 6109 05:01:58,818 --> 05:02:00,838 [music] 6110 05:02:04,712 --> 05:02:06,732 >> [music] 6111 05:02:21,520 --> 05:02:25,360 >> From digital coins to physical assets, 6112 05:02:23,680 --> 05:02:27,200 from online wallets to real world 6113 05:02:25,360 --> 05:02:29,520 property [music] lines, cryptocurrency 6114 05:02:27,200 --> 05:02:31,360 is reshaping how we buy, sell, and think 6115 05:02:29,520 --> 05:02:33,280 about real estate. [music] We are 6116 05:02:31,360 --> 05:02:35,600 witnessing the merging of two worlds, 6117 05:02:33,280 --> 05:02:37,280 the oldest asset on earth and one of the 6118 05:02:35,600 --> 05:02:40,160 newest technological inventions [music] 6119 05:02:37,280 --> 05:02:42,878 of our time. And as the future unfolds, 6120 05:02:40,160 --> 05:02:46,840 only one question remain. Will Bitcoin 6121 05:02:42,878 --> 05:02:46,840 buy your next home? 6122 05:04:10,160 --> 05:04:15,600 September 2008. 6123 05:04:13,040 --> 05:04:18,240 The global financial system is on the 6124 05:04:15,600 --> 05:04:21,200 verge of a total blackout. Layman 6125 05:04:18,240 --> 05:04:24,230 Brothers has vanished. Meil Lynch is 6126 05:04:21,200 --> 05:04:26,958 gone. AIG is hemorrhaging billions 6127 05:04:24,230 --> 05:04:29,280 [music] every hour. 6128 05:04:26,958 --> 05:04:31,200 In Washington, the halls of the Treasury 6129 05:04:29,280 --> 05:04:34,480 are filled with the smartest minds in 6130 05:04:31,200 --> 05:04:37,360 the country. But they have a problem. 6131 05:04:34,480 --> 05:04:40,320 They are staring at a black box of toxic 6132 05:04:37,360 --> 05:04:43,360 debt worth trillions and no tools to 6133 05:04:40,320 --> 05:04:46,400 open it. There is only one person who 6134 05:04:43,360 --> 05:04:48,878 has the map. One person who spent the 6135 05:04:46,400 --> 05:04:51,120 last 20 years building a digital 6136 05:04:48,878 --> 05:04:53,840 unblinking eye that can see through the 6137 05:04:51,120 --> 05:04:55,680 wreckage. The government didn't call the 6138 05:04:53,840 --> 05:04:57,920 big banks to save the world. [music] 6139 05:04:55,680 --> 05:05:00,400 They needed someone to handle the toxic 6140 05:04:57,920 --> 05:05:03,040 waste. And there was only one man that 6141 05:05:00,400 --> 05:05:07,480 could lead through that darkness. 6142 05:05:03,040 --> 05:05:07,480 They called Larry Frink. 6143 05:05:08,878 --> 05:05:14,600 Larry Frink, the man behind Black Rock. 6144 05:05:14,666 --> 05:05:17,440 [music] 6145 05:05:15,280 --> 05:05:21,760 Today, he manages more money than the 6146 05:05:17,440 --> 05:05:24,000 GDP of almost every nation on Earth. $14 6147 05:05:21,760 --> 05:05:26,000 trillion. [music] 6148 05:05:24,000 --> 05:05:27,920 But before he was the shadow sovereign 6149 05:05:26,000 --> 05:05:30,000 of Wall Street, he [music] was a man who 6150 05:05:27,920 --> 05:05:34,080 lost everything. 6151 05:05:30,000 --> 05:05:36,000 Who is Larry Frink? Lawrence D.Fin, also 6152 05:05:34,080 --> 05:05:38,638 known as Larry Frink, is [music] one of 6153 05:05:36,000 --> 05:05:41,280 the co-founders of Black Rockck. He is 6154 05:05:38,638 --> 05:05:43,520 also the chairman and CEO of [music] the 6155 05:05:41,280 --> 05:05:46,106 company, the largest money management 6156 05:05:43,520 --> 05:05:47,840 firm in the world. It's the first 6157 05:05:46,106 --> 05:05:50,320 [music] time in history a company 6158 05:05:47,840 --> 05:05:52,160 manages to reach such a milestone and 6159 05:05:50,320 --> 05:05:54,878 gives a [music] clear picture of how 6160 05:05:52,160 --> 05:05:57,520 Black Rockck operates. Not just a 6161 05:05:54,878 --> 05:05:59,862 traditional investment bank, but as a 6162 05:05:57,520 --> 05:06:02,000 central pillar of the global financial 6163 05:05:59,862 --> 05:06:04,480 [music] infrastructure, where its sheer 6164 05:06:02,000 --> 05:06:06,718 scale allows it to influence economies 6165 05:06:04,480 --> 05:06:10,342 and industries at a level previously 6166 05:06:06,718 --> 05:06:11,040 reserved only for nation states. 6167 05:06:10,342 --> 05:06:13,920 >> [music] 6168 05:06:11,040 --> 05:06:16,878 >> Founded in 1988 as an investment firm 6169 05:06:13,920 --> 05:06:20,160 that prioritized risk management with 6170 05:06:16,878 --> 05:06:22,638 11.5 to [music] 14 trillion under 6171 05:06:20,160 --> 05:06:24,240 management, Black Rockck's influence is 6172 05:06:22,638 --> 05:06:26,480 staggering. 6173 05:06:24,240 --> 05:06:28,638 Black Rockck is a top three shareholder 6174 05:06:26,480 --> 05:06:32,718 in [music] nearly every company in the 6175 05:06:28,638 --> 05:06:35,920 S&P 500. From Apple to Exxon, from 6176 05:06:32,718 --> 05:06:38,638 Microsoft to Nestle. They don't just 6177 05:06:35,920 --> 05:06:40,320 invest in the market, they are the 6178 05:06:38,638 --> 05:06:42,718 market. 6179 05:06:40,320 --> 05:06:45,440 But its reach [music] is personal. It 6180 05:06:42,718 --> 05:06:48,560 holds the retirement dreams of over 35 6181 05:06:45,440 --> 05:06:51,200 million Americans. This is the story of 6182 05:06:48,560 --> 05:06:53,440 how a kid from a California shoe store 6183 05:06:51,200 --> 05:06:58,160 became the custodian of the world's 6184 05:06:53,440 --> 05:07:00,240 wealth. But who is Larry Frink? Lawrence 6185 05:06:58,160 --> 05:07:03,840 Douglas Frink [music] entered the world 6186 05:07:00,240 --> 05:07:05,280 on November the 2nd, 1952. 6187 05:07:03,840 --> 05:07:07,520 Born in Los Angeles, [music] 6188 05:07:05,280 --> 05:07:09,600 California, he was raised in a Jewish 6189 05:07:07,520 --> 05:07:11,440 family in the heart of San Fernando 6190 05:07:09,600 --> 05:07:15,040 Valley, [music] the quintessential 6191 05:07:11,440 --> 05:07:16,638 American suburb of Vanois. 6192 05:07:15,040 --> 05:07:19,840 His home was a [music] balance of 6193 05:07:16,638 --> 05:07:22,000 academic discipline and retail grit. His 6194 05:07:19,840 --> 05:07:23,840 mother, Leela, was an English professor 6195 05:07:22,000 --> 05:07:25,680 who valued the power [music] of language 6196 05:07:23,840 --> 05:07:27,600 and education. 6197 05:07:25,680 --> 05:07:29,920 And long before he pulled the strings of 6198 05:07:27,600 --> 05:07:32,080 the global economy, Larry Frink was 6199 05:07:29,920 --> 05:07:34,878 learning the value of money on a much 6200 05:07:32,080 --> 05:07:36,160 smaller scale. his father's shoe store 6201 05:07:34,878 --> 05:07:38,320 in Vanoise, [music] 6202 05:07:36,160 --> 05:07:41,280 where he spent evenings helping and 6203 05:07:38,320 --> 05:07:43,520 learning the business. As one of three 6204 05:07:41,280 --> 05:07:45,120 children, Larry grew up in a household 6205 05:07:43,520 --> 05:07:48,240 where hard [music] work wasn't just 6206 05:07:45,120 --> 05:07:50,080 encouraged, it was the baseline. 6207 05:07:48,240 --> 05:07:52,320 While he often joked [music] he wasn't 6208 05:07:50,080 --> 05:07:54,480 the smartest in the room, it was this 6209 05:07:52,320 --> 05:07:57,108 specific combination of his mother's 6210 05:07:54,480 --> 05:07:59,040 intellectual curiosity and his father's 6211 05:07:57,108 --> 05:08:01,440 [music] main street business sense that 6212 05:07:59,040 --> 05:08:04,560 would eventually form the DNA of a 6213 05:08:01,440 --> 05:08:06,278 global financial giant. While the future 6214 05:08:04,560 --> 05:08:08,000 titans of Wall Street were rubbing 6215 05:08:06,278 --> 05:08:11,840 [music] elbows in the marble halls of 6216 05:08:08,000 --> 05:08:13,040 Harvard or Yale, Think was a brewin. In 6217 05:08:11,840 --> 05:08:15,600 1970, [music] 6218 05:08:13,040 --> 05:08:18,080 Larry arrived at UCLA. 6219 05:08:15,600 --> 05:08:20,958 For a young man from Vanoise, this 6220 05:08:18,080 --> 05:08:24,320 wasn't just a local university. It was a 6221 05:08:20,958 --> 05:08:26,480 world of ideas. But it was in his final 6222 05:08:24,320 --> 05:08:28,718 years that the trajectory of his life 6223 05:08:26,480 --> 05:08:30,080 shifted. He immersed himself in 6224 05:08:28,718 --> 05:08:31,920 political science, [music] 6225 05:08:30,080 --> 05:08:34,878 learning how power moves through 6226 05:08:31,920 --> 05:08:36,718 nations. But he soon realized that in 6227 05:08:34,878 --> 05:08:39,680 the modern [music] world, power follows 6228 05:08:36,718 --> 05:08:40,798 the money. This led him to the Anderson 6229 05:08:39,680 --> 05:08:43,760 School of Management [music] 6230 05:08:40,798 --> 05:08:45,600 specializing in real estate. It was here 6231 05:08:43,760 --> 05:08:49,120 that he began to see the world through 6232 05:08:45,600 --> 05:08:51,120 the lens of assets and [music] yields. 6233 05:08:49,120 --> 05:08:53,200 This public education gave him a 6234 05:08:51,120 --> 05:08:55,360 different edge. While his [music] peers 6235 05:08:53,200 --> 05:08:57,600 at private East Coast schools were being 6236 05:08:55,360 --> 05:09:00,400 groomed for traditional corporate roles, 6237 05:08:57,600 --> 05:09:01,920 Larry was developing the outsider's eye, 6238 05:09:00,400 --> 05:09:03,920 a perspective that [music] allowed him 6239 05:09:01,920 --> 05:09:08,718 to see opportunities in the messy, 6240 05:09:03,920 --> 05:09:08,718 unpolished corners of the bond market. 6241 05:09:09,360 --> 05:09:15,200 He graduated [music] in 1976, not with a 6242 05:09:12,718 --> 05:09:16,798 silver spoon, but with a California bred 6243 05:09:15,200 --> 05:09:18,718 ambition to take on the [music] giants 6244 05:09:16,798 --> 05:09:21,360 of Manhattan. 6245 05:09:18,718 --> 05:09:23,568 He was a brewin headed for Wall Street, 6246 05:09:21,360 --> 05:09:27,080 and the financial world had no idea 6247 05:09:23,568 --> 05:09:27,080 [music] what was coming. 6248 05:09:29,200 --> 05:09:33,680 The year is 1976. 6249 05:09:31,840 --> 05:09:35,840 New York City is a grit cover 6250 05:09:33,680 --> 05:09:38,560 battlefield and Larry Frink has just 6251 05:09:35,840 --> 05:09:40,878 been handed the keys to the kingdom. 6252 05:09:38,560 --> 05:09:43,120 Goldman Sachs, the most prestigious name 6253 05:09:40,878 --> 05:09:46,400 in finance back then, has practically 6254 05:09:43,120 --> 05:09:49,440 hired him. He had passed the technical 6255 05:09:46,400 --> 05:09:51,280 tests. He had charmed the partners. All 6256 05:09:49,440 --> 05:09:53,840 that remained was a rubber stamp 6257 05:09:51,280 --> 05:09:57,200 interview with human resources. 6258 05:09:53,840 --> 05:09:59,840 But Larry, Larry wasn't just confident, 6259 05:09:57,200 --> 05:10:01,680 he was impatient. When the recruiter 6260 05:09:59,840 --> 05:10:04,160 asked for his thoughts on the firm, 6261 05:10:01,680 --> 05:10:06,798 Larry didn't give a thank you. He gave a 6262 05:10:04,160 --> 05:10:09,360 consultation. He pointed out the flaws 6263 05:10:06,798 --> 05:10:12,480 in their system. At Goldman, they wanted 6264 05:10:09,360 --> 05:10:15,718 a soldier. Larry was already acting like 6265 05:10:12,480 --> 05:10:15,718 a general. 6266 05:10:17,200 --> 05:10:22,560 In that room, the rigid Goldman way 6267 05:10:19,600 --> 05:10:24,718 clashed with the unfiltered Frink way. 6268 05:10:22,560 --> 05:10:28,000 Before he could even hail a camp back to 6269 05:10:24,718 --> 05:10:30,320 his hotel, the offer was dead. The most 6270 05:10:28,000 --> 05:10:32,638 coveted job in Wall Street history had 6271 05:10:30,320 --> 05:10:34,560 vanished. All because Larry Frink 6272 05:10:32,638 --> 05:10:37,920 couldn't stop himself from trying to fix 6273 05:10:34,560 --> 05:10:40,878 a system he hadn't even joined yet. It 6274 05:10:37,920 --> 05:10:43,360 was a crushing blow. But in the shadow 6275 05:10:40,878 --> 05:10:45,600 of that rejection, a door opened at a 6276 05:10:43,360 --> 05:10:48,080 scrappy second tier firm called First 6277 05:10:45,600 --> 05:10:51,440 Boston. It was a place with less 6278 05:10:48,080 --> 05:10:53,760 prestige but more white space. At 6279 05:10:51,440 --> 05:10:56,798 Goldman, he would have been a cog in a 6280 05:10:53,760 --> 05:10:59,680 perfect machine. At First Boston, he was 6281 05:10:56,798 --> 05:11:01,760 the architect. He was given a desk, a 6282 05:10:59,680 --> 05:11:04,000 telephone, and the freedom to build 6283 05:11:01,760 --> 05:11:06,878 something entirely new. The 6284 05:11:04,000 --> 05:11:09,600 mortgagebacked security. He didn't know 6285 05:11:06,878 --> 05:11:12,240 it yet, but that recruiters know was the 6286 05:11:09,600 --> 05:11:17,240 foundation upon which the $14 trillion 6287 05:11:12,240 --> 05:11:17,240 empire of Black Rockck would be built. 6288 05:11:20,814 --> 05:11:25,600 >> [music] 6289 05:11:22,320 --> 05:11:28,638 >> It's 1976 when Larry Frink arrives at 6290 05:11:25,600 --> 05:11:30,638 First Boston. At the time, the firm was 6291 05:11:28,638 --> 05:11:33,260 the scrappy underdog of investment 6292 05:11:30,638 --> 05:11:35,520 banking. It wasn't as stiff as Morgan 6293 05:11:33,260 --> 05:11:38,240 [music] Stanley or as elitist as 6294 05:11:35,520 --> 05:11:41,680 Goldman. It was the perfect laboratory 6295 05:11:38,240 --> 05:11:44,080 for a man who didn't fit the mold. Larry 6296 05:11:41,680 --> 05:11:46,240 was assigned to the bond department. 6297 05:11:44,080 --> 05:11:48,480 Back then, bonds were considered the 6298 05:11:46,240 --> 05:11:51,360 boring corner of finance. 6299 05:11:48,480 --> 05:11:54,480 It was where you went to retire. Stocks 6300 05:11:51,360 --> 05:11:56,798 were sexy. Bonds were for grandmothers. 6301 05:11:54,480 --> 05:11:58,878 But Larry [music] saw something everyone 6302 05:11:56,798 --> 05:12:01,120 else missed. 6303 05:11:58,878 --> 05:12:03,840 He looked at the American dream, the 6304 05:12:01,120 --> 05:12:06,878 suburban house, the white picket fence, 6305 05:12:03,840 --> 05:12:08,240 the 30-year mortgage, and he saw a math 6306 05:12:06,878 --> 05:12:10,240 problem. 6307 05:12:08,240 --> 05:12:12,560 He realized that if you took thousands 6308 05:12:10,240 --> 05:12:14,080 of individual home mortgages, bundled 6309 05:12:12,560 --> 05:12:16,560 [music] them together like a deck of 6310 05:12:14,080 --> 05:12:20,638 cards, and sold slices of that deck to 6311 05:12:16,560 --> 05:12:23,440 investors, you created a money machine. 6312 05:12:20,638 --> 05:12:24,958 This was the birth of the securitization 6313 05:12:23,440 --> 05:12:27,360 market. 6314 05:12:24,958 --> 05:12:29,760 What Larry Frink helped create was more 6315 05:12:27,360 --> 05:12:33,638 than a [music] financial product. It was 6316 05:12:29,760 --> 05:12:33,638 a structural shift. 6317 05:12:34,000 --> 05:12:38,958 Securitization didn't just bundle 6318 05:12:36,080 --> 05:12:42,160 mortgages. It separated risk from 6319 05:12:38,958 --> 05:12:44,160 reality. For the first time, financial 6320 05:12:42,160 --> 05:12:45,520 value could travel faster than the 6321 05:12:44,160 --> 05:12:48,400 underlying economy that [music] 6322 05:12:45,520 --> 05:12:50,480 supported it. A house in California 6323 05:12:48,400 --> 05:12:52,878 became a line in a spreadsheet in New 6324 05:12:50,480 --> 05:12:55,680 York, which became a yield sold to an 6325 05:12:52,878 --> 05:12:58,400 investor [music] in Tokyo. Risk no 6326 05:12:55,680 --> 05:13:01,200 longer lived where decisions were made. 6327 05:12:58,400 --> 05:13:02,996 It was abstracted, sliced, repackaged, 6328 05:13:01,200 --> 05:13:03,920 and distributed across the system. 6329 05:13:02,996 --> 05:13:06,000 [music] 6330 05:13:03,920 --> 05:13:08,320 This was the moment when finance stopped 6331 05:13:06,000 --> 05:13:11,600 reflecting the real economy and began 6332 05:13:08,320 --> 05:13:13,760 building a parallel one. A system that 6333 05:13:11,600 --> 05:13:16,240 could grow without limits as long as 6334 05:13:13,760 --> 05:13:19,600 everyone believed the models were right. 6335 05:13:16,240 --> 05:13:21,760 And for a while they were. 6336 05:13:19,600 --> 05:13:23,840 By the early 80s, [music] Larry was the 6337 05:13:21,760 --> 05:13:26,638 golden boy. He wasn't just hitting 6338 05:13:23,840 --> 05:13:28,958 targets, he was shattering them. In one 6339 05:13:26,638 --> 05:13:31,162 year, his department was responsible for 6340 05:13:28,958 --> 05:13:34,320 nearly onethird of First Boston's total 6341 05:13:31,162 --> 05:13:36,480 [music] profits. At age 31, he became 6342 05:13:34,320 --> 05:13:39,520 the youngest managing director the firm 6343 05:13:36,480 --> 05:13:41,640 had ever seen. He was earning millions. 6344 05:13:39,520 --> 05:13:44,240 He was the successor for Prodigy, 6345 05:13:41,640 --> 05:13:46,000 [music] the man who could do no wrong. 6346 05:13:44,240 --> 05:13:48,160 He had moved to his family to a 6347 05:13:46,000 --> 05:13:50,798 sprawling estate. He [music] was flying 6348 05:13:48,160 --> 05:13:54,760 private. He had conquered the grit cover 6349 05:13:50,798 --> 05:13:54,760 battlefield of Manhattan. 6350 05:13:55,280 --> 05:13:59,760 But in the world of high finance, the 6351 05:13:57,520 --> 05:14:02,760 higher you fly, the thinner the air 6352 05:13:59,760 --> 05:14:02,760 becomes. 6353 05:14:04,240 --> 05:14:08,560 Larry was making hundreds of millions 6354 05:14:06,240 --> 05:14:11,118 for the bank, but there was a ghost in 6355 05:14:08,560 --> 05:14:13,760 the machine, a variable he hadn't 6356 05:14:11,118 --> 05:14:15,280 [music] accounted for. The year was 6357 05:14:13,760 --> 05:14:17,600 1986. 6358 05:14:15,280 --> 05:14:20,400 Larry had made a massive bet on interest 6359 05:14:17,600 --> 05:14:23,920 rates. He believed they would stay 6360 05:14:20,400 --> 05:14:25,920 stable. He was so sure of his math, so 6361 05:14:23,920 --> 05:14:27,920 confident in his track record that he 6362 05:14:25,920 --> 05:14:30,240 didn't realize the ground was shifting 6363 05:14:27,920 --> 05:14:32,240 beneath his feet. 6364 05:14:30,240 --> 05:14:34,480 In just 3 months, the Golden Boy 6365 05:14:32,240 --> 05:14:38,240 department went from profit to a 6366 05:14:34,480 --> 05:14:41,440 catastrophic $100 million loss. In the 6367 05:14:38,240 --> 05:14:44,240 80s, 100 million wasn't just a loss. It 6368 05:14:41,440 --> 05:14:46,320 was a national scandal. Overnight, the 6369 05:14:44,240 --> 05:14:49,108 man who was supposed to run the bank was 6370 05:14:46,320 --> 05:14:50,878 a pariah. The phones stopped ringing. 6371 05:14:49,108 --> 05:14:53,440 [music] The friends on the trading floor 6372 05:14:50,878 --> 05:14:55,760 looked away when he walked by. He had 6373 05:14:53,440 --> 05:14:57,440 been the smartest man in the room until 6374 05:14:55,760 --> 05:14:59,360 he wasn't. [music] 6375 05:14:57,440 --> 05:15:02,560 He would later describe this moment as 6376 05:14:59,360 --> 05:15:04,480 the most painful experience of my life. 6377 05:15:02,560 --> 05:15:05,520 But as he sat in the ruins of his 6378 05:15:04,480 --> 05:15:07,600 reputation, [music] 6379 05:15:05,520 --> 05:15:09,920 Larry Frink wasn't just mourning his 6380 05:15:07,600 --> 05:15:11,440 career. He was obsessed with one 6381 05:15:09,920 --> 05:15:14,400 question. 6382 05:15:11,440 --> 05:15:16,958 How did I not see the risk? 6383 05:15:14,400 --> 05:15:19,280 That obsession, the fear of the unknown 6384 05:15:16,958 --> 05:15:22,920 variable, would become the cornerstone 6385 05:15:19,280 --> 05:15:22,920 of Black Rockck. 6386 05:15:26,080 --> 05:15:32,240 By 1983, Larry wasn't just selling 6387 05:15:28,878 --> 05:15:36,680 bonds, he was a pioneer of the CMO, 6388 05:15:32,240 --> 05:15:36,680 collateralized mortgage obligation. 6389 05:15:36,958 --> 05:15:41,840 Think of it like a waterfall. Larry took 6390 05:15:39,680 --> 05:15:44,798 thousands of mortgages and sliced them 6391 05:15:41,840 --> 05:15:47,920 into tranches. Some investors took the 6392 05:15:44,798 --> 05:15:51,040 top slice, low risk, low reward. Others 6393 05:15:47,920 --> 05:15:52,878 took the bottom, high risk, high yield. 6394 05:15:51,040 --> 05:15:56,718 It was a masterpiece of financial 6395 05:15:52,878 --> 05:15:59,520 engineering. It made the illquid liquid. 6396 05:15:56,718 --> 05:16:01,760 It made first Boston the center of the 6397 05:15:59,520 --> 05:16:04,000 universe. 6398 05:16:01,760 --> 05:16:05,600 But there was a flaw, a tiny 6399 05:16:04,000 --> 05:16:08,560 mathematical [music] ghost in his 6400 05:16:05,600 --> 05:16:10,638 models. Larry's team had predicted that 6401 05:16:08,560 --> 05:16:13,200 interest rates would rise and they 6402 05:16:10,638 --> 05:16:15,568 hedged their bets accordingly. But in 6403 05:16:13,200 --> 05:16:17,360 the second quarter of 1986, rates 6404 05:16:15,568 --> 05:16:20,638 [music] did something the models said 6405 05:16:17,360 --> 05:16:22,400 was impossible. They plummeted 6406 05:16:20,638 --> 05:16:24,718 because they didn't have a system to 6407 05:16:22,400 --> 05:16:26,320 track their real-time exposure. Larry 6408 05:16:24,718 --> 05:16:29,360 was flying blind. [music] 6409 05:16:26,320 --> 05:16:31,840 He was the pilot of a Boeing 747 trying 6410 05:16:29,360 --> 05:16:34,560 to land in a storm using nothing but a 6411 05:16:31,840 --> 05:16:36,718 compass and a prayer. By the time he 6412 05:16:34,560 --> 05:16:38,000 realized the engines were on fire, the 6413 05:16:36,718 --> 05:16:41,360 plane had already hit the [music] 6414 05:16:38,000 --> 05:16:44,680 mountain. $100 million. 6415 05:16:41,360 --> 05:16:44,680 All gone. 6416 05:16:46,878 --> 05:16:52,240 He wasn't just fired, he was erased. 6417 05:16:50,080 --> 05:16:55,200 After the dust settled, Larry found 6418 05:16:52,240 --> 05:16:58,240 himself in a peculiar kind of exile. He 6419 05:16:55,200 --> 05:17:00,764 wasn't just unemployed, he was haunted. 6420 05:16:58,240 --> 05:17:02,958 He realized that the $100 million loss 6421 05:17:00,764 --> 05:17:05,680 [music] wasn't a failure of talent, it 6422 05:17:02,958 --> 05:17:06,878 was a failure of vision. What happened 6423 05:17:05,680 --> 05:17:09,600 in 1986 [music] 6424 05:17:06,878 --> 05:17:12,638 wasn't a personal miscalculation. 6425 05:17:09,600 --> 05:17:14,520 It was a systemic blindness. 6426 05:17:12,638 --> 05:17:17,120 At the time, every major financial 6427 05:17:14,520 --> 05:17:20,638 [music] institution operated the same 6428 05:17:17,120 --> 05:17:23,600 way. Positions were fragmented. Exposure 6429 05:17:20,638 --> 05:17:26,718 was estimated, not measured. Risk was 6430 05:17:23,600 --> 05:17:28,560 inferred after the fact. Banks knew what 6431 05:17:26,718 --> 05:17:31,360 they bought [music] yesterday, but not 6432 05:17:28,560 --> 05:17:34,320 what it was worth right now. The system 6433 05:17:31,360 --> 05:17:36,718 rewarded speed, volume, and confidence, 6434 05:17:34,320 --> 05:17:38,320 not understanding. And as long as 6435 05:17:36,718 --> 05:17:40,878 markets [music] moved slowly, the 6436 05:17:38,320 --> 05:17:42,878 illusion held. But once volatility 6437 05:17:40,878 --> 05:17:45,760 entered the [music] market, no one truly 6438 05:17:42,878 --> 05:17:48,480 knew where the danger was or how large 6439 05:17:45,760 --> 05:17:50,878 it had become. Larry didn't [music] just 6440 05:17:48,480 --> 05:17:52,878 lose money. He realized the entire 6441 05:17:50,878 --> 05:17:55,128 financial system was flying without 6442 05:17:52,878 --> 05:17:55,280 instruments. Wall Street was 6443 05:17:55,128 --> 05:17:57,280 >> [music] 6444 05:17:55,280 --> 05:18:01,040 >> essentially a collection of blind 6445 05:17:57,280 --> 05:18:03,920 giants. Every major firm, Goldman, 6446 05:18:01,040 --> 05:18:06,638 Layman, Meil Lynch, was standing just 6447 05:18:03,920 --> 05:18:10,240 one inch away from total collapse at any 6448 05:18:06,638 --> 05:18:13,440 given second. Why? Because they didn't 6449 05:18:10,240 --> 05:18:16,958 actually know what they owned. This was 6450 05:18:13,440 --> 05:18:19,040 information blindness. 6451 05:18:16,958 --> 05:18:21,280 In the 1980s, [music] you knew what you 6452 05:18:19,040 --> 05:18:24,320 bought yesterday, but you had no idea 6453 05:18:21,280 --> 05:18:27,120 what it was worth right now. A sudden 6454 05:18:24,320 --> 05:18:29,840 shift in interest rates or a political 6455 05:18:27,120 --> 05:18:31,280 coup across the ocean could vaporize a 6456 05:18:29,840 --> 05:18:34,560 billion [music] dollars before the 6457 05:18:31,280 --> 05:18:37,920 morning coffee was poured. 6458 05:18:34,560 --> 05:18:40,560 Larry understood a terrifying truth. The 6459 05:18:37,920 --> 05:18:43,840 entire global financial system was built 6460 05:18:40,560 --> 05:18:45,680 on a foundation of guesswork. 6461 05:18:43,840 --> 05:18:49,120 It hit him with the force of an 6462 05:18:45,680 --> 05:18:50,958 epiphany. If he could build a brain, a 6463 05:18:49,120 --> 05:18:53,440 machine that could see the risk that 6464 05:18:50,958 --> 05:18:56,160 humans were too slow to calculate, he 6465 05:18:53,440 --> 05:18:57,920 wouldn't just be a banker. He would be 6466 05:18:56,160 --> 05:19:00,878 the only man in the world with a 6467 05:18:57,920 --> 05:19:02,958 flashlight in a dark room. This 6468 05:19:00,878 --> 05:19:05,760 realization changed his entire 6469 05:19:02,958 --> 05:19:07,440 philosophy of investing. He stopped 6470 05:19:05,760 --> 05:19:10,160 looking for the big score and [music] 6471 05:19:07,440 --> 05:19:12,480 started looking for the safe passage. He 6472 05:19:10,160 --> 05:19:16,400 didn't want to beat the market anymore. 6473 05:19:12,480 --> 05:19:17,680 He wanted to measure it. 6474 05:19:16,400 --> 05:19:19,920 He would later [music] tell his 6475 05:19:17,680 --> 05:19:21,840 partners, "We are never going to be 6476 05:19:19,920 --> 05:19:23,440 blind again." 6477 05:19:21,840 --> 05:19:26,718 That vow [music] born from the 6478 05:19:23,440 --> 05:19:29,680 humiliation of 1986 became the blueprint 6479 05:19:26,718 --> 05:19:31,920 for a new kind of firm. A firm that 6480 05:19:29,680 --> 05:19:34,638 didn't rely on the ego of a [music] star 6481 05:19:31,920 --> 05:19:37,878 trader, but on the cold, unblinking eye 6482 05:19:34,638 --> 05:19:37,878 of technology. 6483 05:19:42,718 --> 05:19:48,638 Larry Frink was a man with a vision, but 6484 05:19:45,440 --> 05:19:50,560 he was also a man with a tainted resume. 6485 05:19:48,638 --> 05:19:53,200 To the rest of Wall Street, he was the 6486 05:19:50,560 --> 05:19:55,280 guy who lost a h 100red million. But to 6487 05:19:53,200 --> 05:19:57,920 a small circle of insiders at First 6488 05:19:55,280 --> 05:20:01,360 Boston, he was the only one who truly 6489 05:19:57,920 --> 05:20:04,160 understood why it happened. He began 6490 05:20:01,360 --> 05:20:06,718 making calls. He wasn't offering high 6491 05:20:04,160 --> 05:20:09,520 salaries or flashy offices. He was 6492 05:20:06,718 --> 05:20:11,680 offering a chance to build a holy grail, 6493 05:20:09,520 --> 05:20:13,920 a financial firm where technology 6494 05:20:11,680 --> 05:20:17,040 governed the ego, not the other way 6495 05:20:13,920 --> 05:20:19,200 round. And he eventually found the right 6496 05:20:17,040 --> 05:20:21,250 people to help him build that holy 6497 05:20:19,200 --> 05:20:21,250 grail. [music] 6498 05:20:22,798 --> 05:20:29,040 Rob Capito, the enforcer, a powerhouse 6499 05:20:26,878 --> 05:20:31,680 trader who knew the plumbing of the bond 6500 05:20:29,040 --> 05:20:33,680 market better than anyone else. He 6501 05:20:31,680 --> 05:20:37,280 provided the muscle Larry needed to 6502 05:20:33,680 --> 05:20:40,400 execute the vision. Ben Golib, the 6503 05:20:37,280 --> 05:20:43,040 Oracle, a PhD with a mind like a 6504 05:20:40,400 --> 05:20:45,840 supercomput. While other bankers were 6505 05:20:43,040 --> 05:20:48,320 focused on lunch reservations, Golib was 6506 05:20:45,840 --> 05:20:51,120 thinking about value at risk and Monte 6507 05:20:48,320 --> 05:20:54,638 Carlo simulations. 6508 05:20:51,120 --> 05:20:57,040 Susan Wagner, the mastermind, 6509 05:20:54,638 --> 05:20:58,718 brilliant, calculating, and capable of 6510 05:20:57,040 --> 05:21:00,958 seeing structural flaws in a 6511 05:20:58,718 --> 05:21:03,280 multi-billion dollar merger before a 6512 05:21:00,958 --> 05:21:05,840 single paper was signed. Along with 6513 05:21:03,280 --> 05:21:08,160 Barbara Novik, Ralph Schlostein, Hugh 6514 05:21:05,840 --> 05:21:10,958 Freighter, and Keith Anderson, they 6515 05:21:08,160 --> 05:21:12,798 became the original eight. [music] Frink 6516 05:21:10,958 --> 05:21:15,840 wasn't looking for bankers who would run 6517 05:21:12,798 --> 05:21:19,440 after the money. He wanted architects, 6518 05:21:15,840 --> 05:21:21,440 people who were tired of being blind. 6519 05:21:19,440 --> 05:21:23,920 When he found them, they met in living 6520 05:21:21,440 --> 05:21:26,000 rooms and coffee [music] shops. They had 6521 05:21:23,920 --> 05:21:28,958 the blueprints for a system they called 6522 05:21:26,000 --> 05:21:31,760 Aladdin, an acronym for asset, 6523 05:21:28,958 --> 05:21:34,718 liability, debt, and derivative 6524 05:21:31,760 --> 05:21:37,280 investment network. It was designed to 6525 05:21:34,718 --> 05:21:40,638 be the unblinking eye Larry had dreamed 6526 05:21:37,280 --> 05:21:43,760 of in his exile. But a brain without a 6527 05:21:40,638 --> 05:21:46,000 body is just a dream. To build Aladdin, 6528 05:21:43,760 --> 05:21:48,718 they needed hardware. They needed 6529 05:21:46,000 --> 05:21:50,718 offices. And most importantly, they 6530 05:21:48,718 --> 05:21:54,080 needed the one thing Larry's reputation 6531 05:21:50,718 --> 05:21:56,160 had cost him. Capital. Aladdin was not 6532 05:21:54,080 --> 05:21:58,958 designed to beat the market. It was 6533 05:21:56,160 --> 05:22:01,200 designed to understand it. But its real 6534 05:21:58,958 --> 05:22:05,520 power emerged when others started using 6535 05:22:01,200 --> 05:22:08,560 it. Banks, insurance companies, pension 6536 05:22:05,520 --> 05:22:10,718 funds, sovereign institutions. As 6537 05:22:08,560 --> 05:22:14,240 Aladdin spread, something subtle 6538 05:22:10,718 --> 05:22:17,200 happened. Risk stopped being subjective. 6539 05:22:14,240 --> 05:22:19,760 It became standardized. When Aladdin 6540 05:22:17,200 --> 05:22:23,798 flagged an asset as dangerous, entire 6541 05:22:19,760 --> 05:22:23,798 markets adjusted accordingly, 6542 05:22:23,920 --> 05:22:29,280 not because Larry Frink said so, but 6543 05:22:26,400 --> 05:22:31,200 because the system trusted the model. At 6544 05:22:29,280 --> 05:22:33,600 that point, Black Rockck was no longer 6545 05:22:31,200 --> 05:22:35,472 just managing money. It was helping 6546 05:22:33,600 --> 05:22:36,638 define how risk itself was understood. 6547 05:22:35,472 --> 05:22:39,040 [music] 6548 05:22:36,638 --> 05:22:42,760 And whoever defines risk defines the 6549 05:22:39,040 --> 05:22:42,760 boundaries of decisionmaking. 6550 05:22:51,360 --> 05:22:56,798 Enter Steven Schwartzman. In 1988, 6551 05:22:54,718 --> 05:22:59,920 Schwartzman was the rising king of 6552 05:22:56,798 --> 05:23:03,600 private equity. His firm Blackstone was 6553 05:22:59,920 --> 05:23:06,240 aggressive, [music] wealthy, and hungry. 6554 05:23:03,600 --> 05:23:08,876 The meeting was tense. Schwartzman knew 6555 05:23:06,240 --> 05:23:12,000 Larry's history. He knew about the 1986 6556 05:23:08,876 --> 05:23:14,638 [music] disaster. But Larry didn't hide 6557 05:23:12,000 --> 05:23:17,760 from it. He used it as his primary 6558 05:23:14,638 --> 05:23:20,000 selling point. Because Larry had seen 6559 05:23:17,760 --> 05:23:22,320 the end of the world already, he knew 6560 05:23:20,000 --> 05:23:24,400 exactly how the lights went out. And 6561 05:23:22,320 --> 05:23:27,280 because of that, he was the only one who 6562 05:23:24,400 --> 05:23:30,000 knew how to keep them on. 6563 05:23:27,280 --> 05:23:32,000 Larry's pitch was revolutionary. He 6564 05:23:30,000 --> 05:23:35,200 didn't want to start a hedge fund. He 6565 05:23:32,000 --> 05:23:36,958 wanted to create a fiduciary company, a 6566 05:23:35,200 --> 05:23:39,200 firm that managed other people's money 6567 05:23:36,958 --> 05:23:41,840 with the same technological rigor 6568 05:23:39,200 --> 05:23:44,480 usually reserved for NASA. 6569 05:23:41,840 --> 05:23:46,958 He asked for a $5 million credit line 6570 05:23:44,480 --> 05:23:49,440 and a partnership. In exchange, 6571 05:23:46,958 --> 05:23:52,160 Schwartzman would own 50% of the new 6572 05:23:49,440 --> 05:23:54,074 venture. He knew he was buying cheap 6573 05:23:52,160 --> 05:23:55,840 because he was buying on a distressed 6574 05:23:54,074 --> 05:23:57,840 [music] asset, Frink's damaged 6575 05:23:55,840 --> 05:23:59,760 reputation. 6576 05:23:57,840 --> 05:24:01,840 But he did so betting on the idea that 6577 05:23:59,760 --> 05:24:06,400 the experience had turned Larry Frink 6578 05:24:01,840 --> 05:24:09,680 into some sort of financial genius. 6579 05:24:06,400 --> 05:24:12,320 The deal was done. On a Friday in March 6580 05:24:09,680 --> 05:24:14,160 1988, the team moved into a single 6581 05:24:12,320 --> 05:24:15,760 cramped room within Blackstone's [music] 6582 05:24:14,160 --> 05:24:18,400 offices. 6583 05:24:15,760 --> 05:24:20,480 They were five computers, a few folding 6584 05:24:18,400 --> 05:24:23,200 chairs, and a mountain of cables on the 6585 05:24:20,480 --> 05:24:25,520 floor. They were under the Blackstone 6586 05:24:23,200 --> 05:24:28,000 umbrella. But Larry knew that this was 6587 05:24:25,520 --> 05:24:31,440 just a temporary shelter. He didn't just 6588 05:24:28,000 --> 05:24:33,200 want a department, he wanted an empire. 6589 05:24:31,440 --> 05:24:35,520 He had the money, he [music] had the 6590 05:24:33,200 --> 05:24:37,600 team. And in the corner of that small 6591 05:24:35,520 --> 05:24:41,200 room, the first lines of code for 6592 05:24:37,600 --> 05:24:44,080 Aladdin were being written. 6593 05:24:41,200 --> 05:24:46,080 The information blindness was over. The 6594 05:24:44,080 --> 05:24:49,750 era of Black Rock, though it didn't have 6595 05:24:46,080 --> 05:24:51,770 that name yet, had begun. 6596 05:24:49,750 --> 05:24:51,770 [music] 6597 05:24:54,718 --> 05:24:59,840 The first office of Blackstone Financial 6598 05:24:56,958 --> 05:25:02,798 Management wasn't a glass tower. It was 6599 05:24:59,840 --> 05:25:05,040 a glorified closet. Because of the heat 6600 05:25:02,798 --> 05:25:06,798 generated by the early Sun Micro 6601 05:25:05,040 --> 05:25:08,560 Systemystems workstations, the 6602 05:25:06,798 --> 05:25:13,120 temperature in the room rarely dropped 6603 05:25:08,560 --> 05:25:14,878 below 80° [music] 27° C. 6604 05:25:13,120 --> 05:25:17,360 While the rest of the Blackstone group 6605 05:25:14,878 --> 05:25:19,840 was out at expensive lunches closing 6606 05:25:17,360 --> 05:25:22,000 leveraged buyouts, Larry's original 6607 05:25:19,840 --> 05:25:24,160 eight were building a digital [music] 6608 05:25:22,000 --> 05:25:26,430 fortress. 6609 05:25:24,160 --> 05:25:27,760 They were the weirdos in the basement. 6610 05:25:26,430 --> 05:25:30,958 [music] It was here that the name 6611 05:25:27,760 --> 05:25:33,200 Aladdin became a living thing. Every 6612 05:25:30,958 --> 05:25:36,400 day, Ben Golab and his team fed [music] 6613 05:25:33,200 --> 05:25:38,400 it data. Interest rates, housing prices, 6614 05:25:36,400 --> 05:25:40,320 historical crashes. They [music] were 6615 05:25:38,400 --> 05:25:45,400 teaching the machine to be afraid of 6616 05:25:40,320 --> 05:25:45,400 everything Larry hadn't seen in 1986. 6617 05:25:49,040 --> 05:25:53,940 By 1992, the department inside 6618 05:25:51,760 --> 05:25:56,560 Blackstone was no longer a startup. 6619 05:25:53,940 --> 05:26:00,320 [music] It was a powerhouse. Larry's 6620 05:25:56,560 --> 05:26:01,920 team was managing $17 billion. 6621 05:26:00,320 --> 05:26:04,320 They weren't just a side project 6622 05:26:01,920 --> 05:26:06,718 anymore. They were a significant engine 6623 05:26:04,320 --> 05:26:09,680 of Blackstone's [music] growth. But with 6624 05:26:06,718 --> 05:26:11,920 success came a toxic byproduct, 6625 05:26:09,680 --> 05:26:14,560 identity confusion. 6626 05:26:11,920 --> 05:26:16,000 Clients were getting confused. They 6627 05:26:14,560 --> 05:26:18,718 would call [music] Blackstone looking 6628 05:26:16,000 --> 05:26:21,120 for Larry's bond expertise or call Larry 6629 05:26:18,718 --> 05:26:22,638 looking for Schwarzman's buyouts. But 6630 05:26:21,120 --> 05:26:25,520 the friction went deeper [music] than a 6631 05:26:22,638 --> 05:26:28,160 name. It was a war of philosophies. 6632 05:26:25,520 --> 05:26:30,718 Schwartzman was a dealmaker. He wanted 6633 05:26:28,160 --> 05:26:33,520 to own companies. Think was a [music] 6634 05:26:30,718 --> 05:26:35,520 fiduciary. He wanted to manage risk for 6635 05:26:33,520 --> 05:26:37,680 others. 6636 05:26:35,520 --> 05:26:39,680 The tension was similar to having two 6637 05:26:37,680 --> 05:26:42,400 predators [music] in a cage too small to 6638 05:26:39,680 --> 05:26:44,878 fit both. The breaking point came over 6639 05:26:42,400 --> 05:26:47,120 equity. Larry wanted [music] to use 6640 05:26:44,878 --> 05:26:49,616 stock to attract and keep the original 6641 05:26:47,120 --> 05:26:51,920 eight and new talent. Schwarzman, 6642 05:26:49,616 --> 05:26:54,560 [music] holding 50% of the firm, didn't 6643 05:26:51,920 --> 05:26:56,080 want to dilute his state. The 6644 05:26:54,560 --> 05:26:58,798 partnership that saved [music] Larry's 6645 05:26:56,080 --> 05:27:03,760 career was now suffocating his vision. 6646 05:26:58,798 --> 05:27:05,120 In 1994, they reached a deal. 6647 05:27:03,760 --> 05:27:08,878 Schwarzman agreed [music] to sell 6648 05:27:05,120 --> 05:27:10,576 Blackstone steak for $240 million. At 6649 05:27:08,878 --> 05:27:12,718 the time, it seemed like a win for 6650 05:27:10,576 --> 05:27:15,840 [music] Schwarzman, a massive return on 6651 05:27:12,718 --> 05:27:17,440 his $5 million investment. It wasn't 6652 05:27:15,840 --> 05:27:19,920 just about money. [music] It was about 6653 05:27:17,440 --> 05:27:21,520 the spotlight. Schwarzman was the king 6654 05:27:19,920 --> 05:27:24,080 of Wall Street, [music] but his 6655 05:27:21,520 --> 05:27:26,638 subtenant, Larry Frink, was the one the 6656 05:27:24,080 --> 05:27:28,718 New York Times wanted to interview. But 6657 05:27:26,638 --> 05:27:31,840 for Larry, it [music] was the price of 6658 05:27:28,718 --> 05:27:34,240 freedom. Schwarzman would later call 6659 05:27:31,840 --> 05:27:36,400 selling Black Rock the worst mistake of 6660 05:27:34,240 --> 05:27:38,160 my career. For Larry, [music] the 6661 05:27:36,400 --> 05:27:40,878 divorce was the moment the training 6662 05:27:38,160 --> 05:27:42,878 wheels came off. He was no longer under 6663 05:27:40,878 --> 05:27:46,000 anyone's umbrella. He was the [music] 6664 05:27:42,878 --> 05:27:47,840 CEO of an independent firm. Now he just 6665 05:27:46,000 --> 05:27:51,798 had to prove he could survive the coming 6666 05:27:47,840 --> 05:27:51,798 storm of the late [music] '9s. 6667 05:27:59,600 --> 05:28:05,440 It is 2008. The financial world was 6668 05:28:02,878 --> 05:28:07,680 experiencing a heart attack. The 6669 05:28:05,440 --> 05:28:09,920 financial smoothies that mortgage back 6670 05:28:07,680 --> 05:28:11,760 securities Larry had helped create 30 6671 05:28:09,920 --> 05:28:14,798 years earlier had [music] turned into a 6672 05:28:11,760 --> 05:28:17,120 global poison. Banks didn't know what 6673 05:28:14,798 --> 05:28:19,360 they owned. And more importantly, they 6674 05:28:17,120 --> 05:28:22,080 didn't know what their neighbors owned. 6675 05:28:19,360 --> 05:28:24,080 Trust had evaporated. 6676 05:28:22,080 --> 05:28:25,440 When the US government realized the 6677 05:28:24,080 --> 05:28:27,920 economy was [music] on the brink of a 6678 05:28:25,440 --> 05:28:31,760 total blackout, they didn't call Goldman 6679 05:28:27,920 --> 05:28:34,160 Sachs. They didn't call JP Morgan. While 6680 05:28:31,760 --> 05:28:35,760 the CEOs of Layman and Merrill were 6681 05:28:34,160 --> 05:28:38,000 begging for government [music] checks, 6682 05:28:35,760 --> 05:28:40,558 Larry Frink was the one the government 6683 05:28:38,000 --> 05:28:42,798 called to write the checks. 6684 05:28:40,558 --> 05:28:45,280 He was the only titan left standing with 6685 05:28:42,798 --> 05:28:47,360 a clean balance sheet. 6686 05:28:45,280 --> 05:28:49,520 The United States government didn't just 6687 05:28:47,360 --> 05:28:51,360 seek advice, it delegated 6688 05:28:49,520 --> 05:28:52,798 responsibility. 6689 05:28:51,360 --> 05:28:55,200 Black Rockck was [music] tasked with 6690 05:28:52,798 --> 05:28:57,680 valuing assets no one understood, 6691 05:28:55,200 --> 05:28:59,840 managing risks no one could measure and 6692 05:28:57,680 --> 05:29:02,878 stabilizing markets that were collapsing 6693 05:28:59,840 --> 05:29:05,280 in real time. 6694 05:29:02,878 --> 05:29:07,168 This wasn't a bailout. It was an 6695 05:29:05,280 --> 05:29:08,320 outsourcing of core sovereign functions. 6696 05:29:07,168 --> 05:29:10,080 [music] 6697 05:29:08,320 --> 05:29:12,080 For the first time, a private firm 6698 05:29:10,080 --> 05:29:15,120 played a central role in maintaining 6699 05:29:12,080 --> 05:29:16,400 global financial stability. Not through 6700 05:29:15,120 --> 05:29:19,440 political authority, [music] 6701 05:29:16,400 --> 05:29:22,000 but through technical capability. 6702 05:29:19,440 --> 05:29:23,200 From that moment on, power was no longer 6703 05:29:22,000 --> 05:29:25,840 just [music] about laws and 6704 05:29:23,200 --> 05:29:29,120 institutions. It was about who had the 6705 05:29:25,840 --> 05:29:31,040 tools to see the system clearly. 6706 05:29:29,120 --> 05:29:33,600 Black Rockck was hired to manage the 6707 05:29:31,040 --> 05:29:35,600 toxic waste of the crisis. 6708 05:29:33,600 --> 05:29:39,200 They became the official cleaner for the 6709 05:29:35,600 --> 05:29:42,680 US government, managing $130 billion of 6710 05:29:39,200 --> 05:29:42,680 troubled assets. 6711 05:29:42,798 --> 05:29:47,520 Suddenly, Larry Frink was the most 6712 05:29:45,200 --> 05:29:49,200 powerful man in the room, acting as an 6713 05:29:47,520 --> 05:29:50,718 adviser to the president and the 6714 05:29:49,200 --> 05:29:53,120 treasury. 6715 05:29:50,718 --> 05:29:55,920 But while he was saving the system, he 6716 05:29:53,120 --> 05:29:58,160 saw a once-ina-lifetime opportunity to 6717 05:29:55,920 --> 05:30:00,718 dominate it. In the middle of the 6718 05:29:58,160 --> 05:30:03,520 carnage, Barclay's bank in the UK was 6719 05:30:00,718 --> 05:30:05,760 desperate for cash. They needed to sell 6720 05:30:03,520 --> 05:30:07,840 their crown jewel, a division called 6721 05:30:05,760 --> 05:30:10,240 Barclay's Global Investors, which 6722 05:30:07,840 --> 05:30:12,000 included a revolutionary product called 6723 05:30:10,240 --> 05:30:13,840 Eyesshares. 6724 05:30:12,000 --> 05:30:16,638 Eyesshares represented passive 6725 05:30:13,840 --> 05:30:19,680 investing. ETFs that track the whole 6726 05:30:16,638 --> 05:30:21,600 market rather than trying to beat it. It 6727 05:30:19,680 --> 05:30:24,320 was the ultimate expression of Larry's 6728 05:30:21,600 --> 05:30:26,958 philosophy. Stop betting on stars and 6729 05:30:24,320 --> 05:30:31,280 start owning the system. It was a 6730 05:30:26,958 --> 05:30:33,680 massive $13.5 billion gamble. 6731 05:30:31,280 --> 05:30:36,400 If the markets continue to fall, deal 6732 05:30:33,680 --> 05:30:38,638 could sink Black Rockck. But Larry knew 6733 05:30:36,400 --> 05:30:40,718 something the others didn't. He had 6734 05:30:38,638 --> 05:30:42,958 looked into the eye of Aladdin, and 6735 05:30:40,718 --> 05:30:45,760 Aladdin told him that the bottom was 6736 05:30:42,958 --> 05:30:48,718 near. With the acquisition of Eyesshares 6737 05:30:45,760 --> 05:30:51,360 in 2009, Black Rockck doubled its size 6738 05:30:48,718 --> 05:30:54,080 overnight. They weren't just a bond shop 6739 05:30:51,360 --> 05:30:57,040 anymore. They were now the largest money 6740 05:30:54,080 --> 05:30:59,760 manager on the planet. They had gone 6741 05:30:57,040 --> 05:31:01,840 into the crisis as a respected firm. 6742 05:30:59,760 --> 05:31:05,638 They came out of it as the shadow 6743 05:31:01,840 --> 05:31:05,638 government of finance. 6744 05:31:10,320 --> 05:31:14,160 By 2012, [music] 6745 05:31:11,520 --> 05:31:16,080 Larry Frink had built the machine. He 6746 05:31:14,160 --> 05:31:17,280 had the assets, the data, and the 6747 05:31:16,080 --> 05:31:19,200 influence. [music] 6748 05:31:17,280 --> 05:31:22,100 But he realized that being king of Wall 6749 05:31:19,200 --> 05:31:23,680 Street wasn't enough. He wanted to 6750 05:31:22,100 --> 05:31:27,040 [music] change the way the world did 6751 05:31:23,680 --> 05:31:28,480 business. Every January, a ritual began 6752 05:31:27,040 --> 05:31:31,600 that would send tremors through 6753 05:31:28,480 --> 05:31:34,000 boardrooms from Detroit to Frankfurt. 6754 05:31:31,600 --> 05:31:36,480 Larry started writing letters. They 6755 05:31:34,000 --> 05:31:40,360 weren't just annual reports. They were 6756 05:31:36,480 --> 05:31:40,360 the Black Rockck Manifestos. 6757 05:31:41,040 --> 05:31:46,958 In 2018, he dropped a bomb. He told the 6758 05:31:44,798 --> 05:31:49,120 world's CEOs that if they wanted Black 6759 05:31:46,958 --> 05:31:52,240 Rockck's money, they had to prove they 6760 05:31:49,120 --> 05:31:54,958 served a social purpose. He wasn't just 6761 05:31:52,240 --> 05:31:57,520 asking for profits. He was asking for a 6762 05:31:54,958 --> 05:32:00,638 soul. He was mainstreaming [music] 6763 05:31:57,520 --> 05:32:03,520 ESG, environmental, social, and 6764 05:32:00,638 --> 05:32:07,120 governance. And he was doing it with a 6765 05:32:03,520 --> 05:32:08,878 $10 trillion hammer. But Larry's new 6766 05:32:07,120 --> 05:32:12,400 gospel [music] didn't sit well with 6767 05:32:08,878 --> 05:32:14,080 everyone. By 2021, the golden boy was 6768 05:32:12,400 --> 05:32:17,120 finding himself in the middle of a 6769 05:32:14,080 --> 05:32:20,320 two-front war. 6770 05:32:17,120 --> 05:32:22,000 The ESG debate was never cultural. It 6771 05:32:20,320 --> 05:32:24,638 was economic. 6772 05:32:22,000 --> 05:32:27,120 At its core, ESG [music] was about risk 6773 05:32:24,638 --> 05:32:29,120 management, anticipating regulation, 6774 05:32:27,120 --> 05:32:30,958 climate disruption, and social 6775 05:32:29,120 --> 05:32:32,638 instability. 6776 05:32:30,958 --> 05:32:34,718 For Black Rockck, ignoring [music] those 6777 05:32:32,638 --> 05:32:36,770 factors wasn't neutral. It was 6778 05:32:34,718 --> 05:32:39,040 dangerous. But when capital begins 6779 05:32:36,770 --> 05:32:41,440 [music] to price the future, it also 6780 05:32:39,040 --> 05:32:44,080 begins to shape it. That's why the 6781 05:32:41,440 --> 05:32:46,958 backlash was so intense. 6782 05:32:44,080 --> 05:32:48,558 To the left, Larry was a hypocrite. They 6783 05:32:46,958 --> 05:32:50,798 called him [music] a greenwasher because 6784 05:32:48,558 --> 05:32:53,280 Black Rockck still held billions in oil 6785 05:32:50,798 --> 05:32:55,440 and gas stocks. To the right, he [music] 6786 05:32:53,280 --> 05:32:57,600 was a globalist villain who was using 6787 05:32:55,440 --> 05:32:59,920 other people's money to push a radical 6788 05:32:57,600 --> 05:33:02,000 environmental [music] agenda. The 6789 05:32:59,920 --> 05:33:05,558 backlash turned into a full-scale 6790 05:33:02,000 --> 05:33:05,558 political assault. 6791 05:33:05,600 --> 05:33:10,320 State treasurers in Florida, Texas, and 6792 05:33:08,080 --> 05:33:12,958 Mississippi began pulling billions out 6793 05:33:10,320 --> 05:33:14,878 of Black Rockck. They accused Larry of 6794 05:33:12,958 --> 05:33:17,760 boycotting energy and [music] violating 6795 05:33:14,878 --> 05:33:19,600 his duty to investors. 6796 05:33:17,760 --> 05:33:22,320 For the first time, the man who had 6797 05:33:19,600 --> 05:33:23,920 mastered risk found himself in a risk he 6798 05:33:22,320 --> 05:33:27,638 couldn't calculate, [music] 6799 05:33:23,920 --> 05:33:27,638 the culture war. 6800 05:33:29,120 --> 05:33:34,080 He told a crowd in Aspen that he was 6801 05:33:31,360 --> 05:33:36,240 ashamed to be a part of the debate. He 6802 05:33:34,080 --> 05:33:39,280 even stopped using the term ESG 6803 05:33:36,240 --> 05:33:41,120 altogether, calling it weaponized. 6804 05:33:39,280 --> 05:33:43,920 He had tried to become the conscience of 6805 05:33:41,120 --> 05:33:46,320 capitalism. Instead, it became its most 6806 05:33:43,920 --> 05:33:48,160 controversial target. But even [music] 6807 05:33:46,320 --> 05:33:50,798 as the politicians shouted and the 6808 05:33:48,160 --> 05:33:53,680 protesters marched, the assets kept 6809 05:33:50,798 --> 05:33:55,440 growing. [music] 6810 05:33:53,680 --> 05:33:57,520 Because in the end, whether you loved 6811 05:33:55,440 --> 05:34:01,974 him or hated him, you couldn't escape 6812 05:33:57,520 --> 05:34:01,974 the machine he built. [music] 6813 05:34:09,360 --> 05:34:14,000 January 2026, 6814 05:34:11,680 --> 05:34:15,680 the number flashes on a terminal in 6815 05:34:14,000 --> 05:34:19,680 Black Rockck's Hudson Yards 6816 05:34:15,680 --> 05:34:22,798 headquarters. $14 trillion. 6817 05:34:19,680 --> 05:34:24,400 It is a number so vast it defies human 6818 05:34:22,798 --> 05:34:26,160 comprehension. 6819 05:34:24,400 --> 05:34:28,878 If Larry thinks assets [music] under 6820 05:34:26,160 --> 05:34:30,878 management were a country's GDP, it 6821 05:34:28,878 --> 05:34:33,200 would be the third largest economy on 6822 05:34:30,878 --> 05:34:35,440 Earth, surpassed only by the United 6823 05:34:33,200 --> 05:34:37,680 States [music] and China. 6824 05:34:35,440 --> 05:34:40,558 But as Larry looks out from his office, 6825 05:34:37,680 --> 05:34:42,400 he isn't looking at stock tickers. He is 6826 05:34:40,558 --> 05:34:45,400 looking at the very bones of 6827 05:34:42,400 --> 05:34:45,400 civilization. 6828 05:34:46,958 --> 05:34:53,200 In 2024, Larry made his final [music] 6829 05:34:50,000 --> 05:34:54,978 most aggressive pivot. He realized that 6830 05:34:53,200 --> 05:34:57,280 the next decade won't be one with 6831 05:34:54,978 --> 05:35:00,216 [music] bits on a screen, but with atoms 6832 05:34:57,280 --> 05:35:02,320 in the ground. With the 12.5 billion 6833 05:35:00,216 --> 05:35:04,798 [music] acquisition of global 6834 05:35:02,320 --> 05:35:06,558 infrastructure partners, Larry signaled 6835 05:35:04,798 --> 05:35:10,080 the end of the [music] old Wall Street 6836 05:35:06,558 --> 05:35:11,440 era. Larry saw the AI revolution coming. 6837 05:35:10,080 --> 05:35:14,160 But he didn't buy the chip [music] 6838 05:35:11,440 --> 05:35:17,718 makers. He bought the power plants that 6839 05:35:14,160 --> 05:35:17,718 feed the chips. 6840 05:35:20,558 --> 05:35:27,638 But every empire faces the same 6841 05:35:22,638 --> 05:35:27,638 inevitable [music] question. Succession. 6842 05:35:29,040 --> 05:35:33,280 For years, Wall Street has whispered 6843 05:35:31,120 --> 05:35:36,558 about who could possibly replace the man 6844 05:35:33,280 --> 05:35:38,480 who is Black Rockck. Names like Rob 6845 05:35:36,558 --> 05:35:41,120 Capito, Mark Weirman, [music] and 6846 05:35:38,480 --> 05:35:44,102 Jennifer Johnson swirl in the press. But 6847 05:35:41,120 --> 05:35:45,840 the truth is more complex. Larry hasn't 6848 05:35:44,102 --> 05:35:48,688 [music] just built a company. He's built 6849 05:35:45,840 --> 05:35:51,520 an organism. A system where Aladdin, now 6850 05:35:48,688 --> 05:35:53,760 [music] a very sophisticated AI entity, 6851 05:35:51,520 --> 05:35:56,000 handles the risk while a legion of 6852 05:35:53,760 --> 05:35:58,798 20,000 employees, [music] executes the 6853 05:35:56,000 --> 05:36:01,280 vision. Aladdin is no longer just a 6854 05:35:58,798 --> 05:36:02,480 calculator. It is a predictive engine 6855 05:36:01,280 --> 05:36:05,200 that runs millions of [music] 6856 05:36:02,480 --> 05:36:07,120 simulations every second, anticipating 6857 05:36:05,200 --> 05:36:10,878 everything from a war in the Middle East 6858 05:36:07,120 --> 05:36:13,360 to a crop [music] failure in Brazil. 6859 05:36:10,878 --> 05:36:16,480 Some call him the king of the world, 6860 05:36:13,360 --> 05:36:18,718 others call him the shadow architect. 6861 05:36:16,480 --> 05:36:20,480 But if you ask Larry, he'll tell you 6862 05:36:18,718 --> 05:36:22,878 he's [music] still that kid from the Van 6863 05:36:20,480 --> 05:36:27,160 Noise shoe store, just trying to make 6864 05:36:22,878 --> 05:36:27,160 sure that the maths add up. 6865 05:36:27,520 --> 05:36:31,360 He took the greatest humiliation of his 6866 05:36:29,520 --> 05:36:33,840 life and turned it [music] into a shield 6867 05:36:31,360 --> 05:36:35,840 for the global economy. 6868 05:36:33,840 --> 05:36:38,558 He taught the world that profit without 6869 05:36:35,840 --> 05:36:40,798 a plan is just a gamble and that in the 6870 05:36:38,558 --> 05:36:43,680 dark, the man with the flashlight is 6871 05:36:40,798 --> 05:36:45,680 king. 6872 05:36:43,680 --> 05:36:48,292 There is one financial question the 6873 05:36:45,680 --> 05:36:50,320 system cannot answer. What happens 6874 05:36:48,292 --> 05:36:53,040 [music] when everyone measures risk the 6875 05:36:50,320 --> 05:36:55,498 same way? When models converge. When 6876 05:36:53,040 --> 05:36:57,760 assumptions align. When diversity of 6877 05:36:55,498 --> 05:37:00,080 [music] judgment disappears. 6878 05:36:57,760 --> 05:37:02,320 A system optimized for stability can 6879 05:37:00,080 --> 05:37:04,558 become fragile. Not because [music] it 6880 05:37:02,320 --> 05:37:06,558 is wrong but because it leaves no room 6881 05:37:04,558 --> 05:37:08,798 for the unexpected. 6882 05:37:06,558 --> 05:37:11,200 When the supervisor becomes invisible 6883 05:37:08,798 --> 05:37:14,320 and the rules are embedded in code, 6884 05:37:11,200 --> 05:37:17,600 accountability becomes harder to locate, 6885 05:37:14,320 --> 05:37:19,520 the system works until it doesn't. And 6886 05:37:17,600 --> 05:37:22,080 that's why Blackprop isn't just a 6887 05:37:19,520 --> 05:37:24,718 shareholder in your company. They are 6888 05:37:22,080 --> 05:37:27,520 the landlord of your power plant, the 6889 05:37:24,718 --> 05:37:29,920 owner of your airport, the architect of 6890 05:37:27,520 --> 05:37:31,840 your retirement. It is a level of 6891 05:37:29,920 --> 05:37:33,280 centralized influence the world has 6892 05:37:31,840 --> 05:37:36,718 never seen [music] in a private 6893 05:37:33,280 --> 05:37:39,440 individual. Lawrence D.Fin didn't just 6894 05:37:36,718 --> 05:37:41,680 build a bank. He built the unblinking 6895 05:37:39,440 --> 05:37:43,920 eye of [music] capitalism. 6896 05:37:41,680 --> 05:37:46,160 And as the world moves into the era of 6897 05:37:43,920 --> 05:37:47,840 AI, climate shift, and global 6898 05:37:46,160 --> 05:37:51,120 restructuring, one [music] thing is 6899 05:37:47,840 --> 05:37:56,920 certain. Black Rockck will be there, 6900 05:37:51,120 --> 05:37:56,920 watching, calculating, and growing. 6901 05:39:17,040 --> 05:39:22,000 It's just a small plastic brick. 6902 05:39:20,480 --> 05:39:27,200 Lightweight, 6903 05:39:22,000 --> 05:39:31,520 simple, unchanged since 1958. 6904 05:39:27,200 --> 05:39:33,520 And yet, it has built entire universes. 6905 05:39:31,520 --> 05:39:36,080 Lego constructions truly take us back to 6906 05:39:33,520 --> 05:39:37,840 childhood. 6907 05:39:36,080 --> 05:39:40,320 But they stay with us throughout our 6908 05:39:37,840 --> 05:39:42,718 entire lives. From bedrooms to 6909 05:39:40,320 --> 05:39:46,958 boardrooms, from playgrounds to 6910 05:39:42,718 --> 05:39:49,440 Hollywood, Lego has shaped generations. 6911 05:39:46,958 --> 05:39:51,058 >> When I design something from scratch, I 6912 05:39:49,440 --> 05:39:53,680 start with an idea that occurs to me at 6913 05:39:51,058 --> 05:39:55,440 [music] any time of day. 6914 05:39:53,680 --> 05:39:58,480 >> I try to build it with Lego and see what 6915 05:39:55,440 --> 05:40:02,080 I come up with. In a global toy market 6916 05:39:58,480 --> 05:40:04,794 worth more [music] than $120 billion, 6917 05:40:02,080 --> 05:40:07,360 LEGO stands alone. A single company 6918 05:40:04,794 --> 05:40:10,558 [music] controlling nearly one in every 6919 05:40:07,360 --> 05:40:12,798 $10 spent on toys worldwide. 6920 05:40:10,558 --> 05:40:14,400 >> Lego holds a leading position worldwide, 6921 05:40:12,798 --> 05:40:16,000 recognized above all for its 6922 05:40:14,400 --> 05:40:18,160 playability. 6923 05:40:16,000 --> 05:40:22,240 >> What if the most beloved toy in the 6924 05:40:18,160 --> 05:40:24,638 world almost didn't exist? 6925 05:40:22,240 --> 05:40:27,360 Discover the incredible journey of a 6926 05:40:24,638 --> 05:40:29,360 small, struggling carpentry shop. The 6927 05:40:27,360 --> 05:40:31,200 dared to dream bigger than anyone 6928 05:40:29,360 --> 05:40:33,760 thought possible. 6929 05:40:31,200 --> 05:40:36,798 >> This is the untold story of the [music] 6930 05:40:33,760 --> 05:40:39,840 visionary who built Lego. 6931 05:40:36,798 --> 05:40:43,120 Transforming simple wooden bricks into a 6932 05:40:39,840 --> 05:40:46,000 multi-billion dollar empire and forever 6933 05:40:43,120 --> 05:40:47,600 changing how we play. 6934 05:40:46,000 --> 05:40:49,840 But none of this [music] began with 6935 05:40:47,600 --> 05:40:51,520 billiondoll charts or cinematic 6936 05:40:49,840 --> 05:40:55,360 universes. 6937 05:40:51,520 --> 05:40:57,920 It began with a carpenter with a vision. 6938 05:40:55,360 --> 05:41:01,200 In a tiny Danish [music] village, one 6939 05:40:57,920 --> 05:41:04,840 man had a dream. Building toys out of 6940 05:41:01,200 --> 05:41:04,840 scraps of wood. 6941 05:41:11,040 --> 05:41:17,840 Ole Christensen was born in 1891 in 6942 05:41:14,878 --> 05:41:21,760 western Denmark, a place defined by 6943 05:41:17,840 --> 05:41:24,480 silence, soil, and hard work. 6944 05:41:21,760 --> 05:41:26,638 He grew up poor, like most children in 6945 05:41:24,480 --> 05:41:28,000 the Jutland countryside. 6946 05:41:26,638 --> 05:41:30,718 But he learned the value of 6947 05:41:28,000 --> 05:41:34,160 craftsmanship early. When you made 6948 05:41:30,718 --> 05:41:36,878 something, it had to last. 6949 05:41:34,160 --> 05:41:39,120 He apprenticed as a carpenter. It was 6950 05:41:36,878 --> 05:41:42,718 not a really glamorous work, but 6951 05:41:39,120 --> 05:41:46,000 meticulous, honest, a craft that matched 6952 05:41:42,718 --> 05:41:48,000 Ola's character and manners. 6953 05:41:46,000 --> 05:41:51,360 Ola traveled through Denmark, [music] 6954 05:41:48,000 --> 05:41:55,360 Germany, and Norway. Everywhere he went, 6955 05:41:51,360 --> 05:41:57,440 he left a reputation. Precise, patient, 6956 05:41:55,360 --> 05:41:59,120 relentless. 6957 05:41:57,440 --> 05:42:01,440 In 1916, [music] 6958 05:41:59,120 --> 05:42:03,440 Ole returned home and bought a workshop 6959 05:42:01,440 --> 05:42:08,480 in a place that barely existed on the 6960 05:42:03,440 --> 05:42:10,480 map. Bund. No shops, no train station, 6961 05:42:08,480 --> 05:42:12,000 just a handful of families trying to 6962 05:42:10,480 --> 05:42:13,760 survive the Danish winds. 6963 05:42:12,000 --> 05:42:16,878 >> Don't worry, I'm fine. I'm fine. 6964 05:42:13,760 --> 05:42:19,040 >> But 8 years later, disaster struck. 6965 05:42:16,878 --> 05:42:22,080 >> Oh. Oh. Oh, no. 6966 05:42:19,040 --> 05:42:22,798 >> In 1924, a fire tore through his 6967 05:42:22,080 --> 05:42:25,680 workshop. 6968 05:42:22,798 --> 05:42:27,280 >> Oh god, no. Please, no. Oh my god. 6969 05:42:25,680 --> 05:42:31,520 >> Everything burned. 6970 05:42:27,280 --> 05:42:34,878 tools, wood, orders, and a lifetime of 6971 05:42:31,520 --> 05:42:39,040 savings, all gone. 6972 05:42:34,878 --> 05:42:41,360 But Olair didn't quit. He rebuilt and 6973 05:42:39,040 --> 05:42:43,680 rebuilt [music] bigger than before. Not 6974 05:42:41,360 --> 05:42:45,920 because it was safe, but because he 6975 05:42:43,680 --> 05:42:48,160 refused to let Billand disappear into 6976 05:42:45,920 --> 05:42:50,558 the wind. 6977 05:42:48,160 --> 05:42:53,040 Then came the Great Depression. [music] 6978 05:42:50,558 --> 05:42:55,680 Houses weren't being built. Doors 6979 05:42:53,040 --> 05:42:57,600 weren't being ordered. bills weren't 6980 05:42:55,680 --> 05:43:00,240 being paid. 6981 05:42:57,600 --> 05:43:03,200 Ole had workers depending on him, 6982 05:43:00,240 --> 05:43:06,160 families depending on him. So, he did 6983 05:43:03,200 --> 05:43:10,000 something unexpected. He began crafting 6984 05:43:06,160 --> 05:43:13,600 small wooden toys. They were simple, 6985 05:43:10,000 --> 05:43:16,638 durable, and beautiful. 6986 05:43:13,600 --> 05:43:20,320 Locals mocked him. A grown man making 6987 05:43:16,638 --> 05:43:23,600 toys for children. You'll never survive. 6988 05:43:20,320 --> 05:43:25,600 But Ola believed that play and fun was a 6989 05:43:23,600 --> 05:43:28,798 serious business. 6990 05:43:25,600 --> 05:43:32,400 In 1934, he held a contest to name the 6991 05:43:28,798 --> 05:43:33,920 new toy company. He chose a short word, 6992 05:43:32,400 --> 05:43:36,320 Lego. 6993 05:43:33,920 --> 05:43:39,840 It was not only a simple idea, but a 6994 05:43:36,320 --> 05:43:42,558 philosophy and a promise. 6995 05:43:39,840 --> 05:43:45,200 He hung a sign in the workshop. Only the 6996 05:43:42,558 --> 05:43:50,360 best is good enough. It wasn't 6997 05:43:45,200 --> 05:43:50,360 marketing. It was his identity. 6998 05:43:50,772 --> 05:43:53,680 >> [panting] 6999 05:43:52,240 --> 05:43:58,320 >> Oh god, not again. 7000 05:43:53,680 --> 05:44:01,120 >> In 1942, Ola faced another fire. This 7001 05:43:58,320 --> 05:44:04,160 time it was bigger, more devastating. 7002 05:44:01,120 --> 05:44:07,600 Every blueprint, every toy, every dream 7003 05:44:04,160 --> 05:44:10,480 he had turned into smoke. 7004 05:44:07,600 --> 05:44:14,000 But he had built himself the hardship. 7005 05:44:10,480 --> 05:44:15,680 And once more, he rebuilt the factory 7006 05:44:14,000 --> 05:44:20,080 stronger than the two previous [music] 7007 05:44:15,680 --> 05:44:22,958 ones. In 1947, at the worst economic 7008 05:44:20,080 --> 05:44:26,160 moment, Ola made the riskiest choice of 7009 05:44:22,958 --> 05:44:28,320 his life. He spent more than twice the 7010 05:44:26,160 --> 05:44:31,120 company's annual profits on a strange 7011 05:44:28,320 --> 05:44:34,080 new machine, one that worked not with 7012 05:44:31,120 --> 05:44:36,798 wood, but with plastic. 7013 05:44:34,080 --> 05:44:39,200 Retailers hated plastic. Parents 7014 05:44:36,798 --> 05:44:42,958 distrusted it. But Ola saw something 7015 05:44:39,200 --> 05:44:45,360 they didn't. Precision, repeatability, 7016 05:44:42,958 --> 05:44:47,680 and possibilities. Endless 7017 05:44:45,360 --> 05:44:50,958 possibilities. 7018 05:44:47,680 --> 05:44:53,120 Only two years later, in 1949, 7019 05:44:50,958 --> 05:44:56,400 LEGO released the first plastic bricks 7020 05:44:53,120 --> 05:44:59,200 of its history. They didn't click. They 7021 05:44:56,400 --> 05:45:02,200 weren't perfect, but they were the 7022 05:44:59,200 --> 05:45:02,200 beginning. 7023 05:45:06,480 --> 05:45:10,878 >> The idea was good, but and his team 7024 05:45:09,120 --> 05:45:13,200 faced setbacks while designing the 7025 05:45:10,878 --> 05:45:14,878 bricks that had cemented Lego's identity 7026 05:45:13,200 --> 05:45:18,718 through the years. 7027 05:45:14,878 --> 05:45:20,718 The plastic bricks didn't grip. This was 7028 05:45:18,718 --> 05:45:23,680 a major problem for a building set 7029 05:45:20,718 --> 05:45:26,638 because buildings collapsed. Towers fell 7030 05:45:23,680 --> 05:45:30,718 in front of their eyes. Apparently, Lego 7031 05:45:26,638 --> 05:45:32,320 wasn't created to build. And then in 7032 05:45:30,718 --> 05:45:34,558 1958, 7033 05:45:32,320 --> 05:45:36,878 everything changed. 7034 05:45:34,558 --> 05:45:38,878 >> Unlike 20 years ago, LEGO today allows 7035 05:45:36,878 --> 05:45:41,200 us to build many more things because 7036 05:45:38,878 --> 05:45:44,520 they have released more realistic colors 7037 05:45:41,200 --> 05:45:44,520 and shapes. 7038 05:45:44,958 --> 05:45:49,680 In the past, the pieces were mostly 7039 05:45:47,040 --> 05:45:51,760 square. Today, there is a much wider 7040 05:45:49,680 --> 05:45:53,920 variety of shapes, including more 7041 05:45:51,760 --> 05:45:56,718 rounded elements, which allow us to 7042 05:45:53,920 --> 05:45:58,400 create more ergonomic forms, ones that 7043 05:45:56,718 --> 05:46:00,718 more closely resemble the kinds of 7044 05:45:58,400 --> 05:46:02,878 buildings and structures we see in 7045 05:46:00,718 --> 05:46:05,920 everyday life. 7046 05:46:02,878 --> 05:46:09,120 >> Engineers at LEGO perfected a simple but 7047 05:46:05,920 --> 05:46:11,200 ingenious solution. hollow tubes inside 7048 05:46:09,120 --> 05:46:13,440 the brick. 7049 05:46:11,200 --> 05:46:16,000 Paired with the studs on top, the 7050 05:46:13,440 --> 05:46:18,878 geometry created what LEGO calls clutch 7051 05:46:16,000 --> 05:46:22,160 power. Not too [music] tight, not too 7052 05:46:18,878 --> 05:46:24,000 loose, just perfect. 7053 05:46:22,160 --> 05:46:26,638 This was not just an adjustment or 7054 05:46:24,000 --> 05:46:29,520 improvement. It was the birth of what we 7055 05:46:26,638 --> 05:46:32,240 know [music] today as a Lego brick. The 7056 05:46:29,520 --> 05:46:34,400 brick that today can still be used with 7057 05:46:32,240 --> 05:46:35,680 the modern ones. 7058 05:46:34,400 --> 05:46:37,760 the brick that [music] was the 7059 05:46:35,680 --> 05:46:40,000 foundation of a company that still makes 7060 05:46:37,760 --> 05:46:43,440 history today. 7061 05:46:40,000 --> 05:46:44,638 That same year, Bego filed the patent. 7062 05:46:43,440 --> 05:46:46,958 They had something worth [music] 7063 05:46:44,638 --> 05:46:50,878 protecting, and OA knew that sooner or 7064 05:46:46,958 --> 05:46:54,558 later, it would be replicated. 7065 05:46:50,878 --> 05:46:57,450 It was January the 28th, 1958 when the 7066 05:46:54,558 --> 05:46:59,360 patent was filed. Later that year, 7067 05:46:57,450 --> 05:47:00,958 [music] Ole Kirk Christensen passed 7068 05:46:59,360 --> 05:47:04,160 away. 7069 05:47:00,958 --> 05:47:07,958 And sadly, he never lived to see how far 7070 05:47:04,160 --> 05:47:07,958 his brick would travel. 7071 05:47:15,520 --> 05:47:21,040 After his father died, Godfred Kerr 7072 05:47:18,080 --> 05:47:23,280 Christensen stepped in. He wasn't 7073 05:47:21,040 --> 05:47:26,240 inheriting the company. He was 7074 05:47:23,280 --> 05:47:28,480 inheriting a philosophy, one he had been 7075 05:47:26,240 --> 05:47:30,638 raised [music] with. His father wasn't 7076 05:47:28,480 --> 05:47:32,798 around anymore, but the original spirit 7077 05:47:30,638 --> 05:47:33,440 of Lego lived on in the second 7078 05:47:32,798 --> 05:47:35,440 Christensen [music] 7079 05:47:33,440 --> 05:47:37,840 generation. 7080 05:47:35,440 --> 05:47:40,000 But he also had something to add. 7081 05:47:37,840 --> 05:47:43,360 Godfred believed Lego should be more 7082 05:47:40,000 --> 05:47:44,878 than toys. It should be a system. A 7083 05:47:43,360 --> 05:47:47,600 system where [music] every piece 7084 05:47:44,878 --> 05:47:49,520 connected with every other piece across 7085 05:47:47,600 --> 05:47:50,878 every set. 7086 05:47:49,520 --> 05:47:53,920 This created a language [music] of 7087 05:47:50,878 --> 05:47:56,638 creativity and possibilities. And a 7088 05:47:53,920 --> 05:47:58,558 single idea changed everything. 7089 05:47:56,638 --> 05:48:01,120 Suddenly, LEGO [music] wasn't a 7090 05:47:58,558 --> 05:48:03,040 collection of toys, but an entire 7091 05:48:01,120 --> 05:48:05,600 universe. 7092 05:48:03,040 --> 05:48:07,520 The company began to grow far beyond its 7093 05:48:05,600 --> 05:48:11,280 original frontiers. [music] 7094 05:48:07,520 --> 05:48:16,080 During the 1960s and '7s, Lego expanded 7095 05:48:11,280 --> 05:48:18,240 across Europe, Germany, Sweden, the UK. 7096 05:48:16,080 --> 05:48:21,680 Band, once [music] a small village, 7097 05:48:18,240 --> 05:48:24,320 became a global hub of play. Lego then 7098 05:48:21,680 --> 05:48:26,638 built its own airport, factories, and 7099 05:48:24,320 --> 05:48:29,120 distribution centers. In the world of 7100 05:48:26,638 --> 05:48:32,558 construction toys, we know that Lego 7101 05:48:29,120 --> 05:48:37,120 isn't the only brand around. 7102 05:48:32,558 --> 05:48:39,760 What Lego provides is a quality product. 7103 05:48:37,120 --> 05:48:42,558 Maybe one part is wrong for every 10,000 7104 05:48:39,760 --> 05:48:45,360 or 100,000 items. And if you are missing 7105 05:48:42,558 --> 05:48:47,520 an item from a box, or if it is faulty, 7106 05:48:45,360 --> 05:48:48,958 the company's after sales service will 7107 05:48:47,520 --> 05:48:52,360 not question the fact that you are 7108 05:48:48,958 --> 05:48:52,360 missing a part. 7109 05:48:53,200 --> 05:48:59,440 And then the magic happened. 7110 05:48:56,798 --> 05:49:03,680 Lego introduced something no toy company 7111 05:48:59,440 --> 05:49:07,520 had done at scale. Fully themed worlds. 7112 05:49:03,680 --> 05:49:08,878 Space town castles. 7113 05:49:07,520 --> 05:49:11,280 Children weren't just building 7114 05:49:08,878 --> 05:49:13,200 structures anymore. They were building 7115 05:49:11,280 --> 05:49:16,718 stories. 7116 05:49:13,200 --> 05:49:18,638 In 1978, LEGO released its most iconic 7117 05:49:16,718 --> 05:49:20,240 invention since the brick, the 7118 05:49:18,638 --> 05:49:23,200 minifigure. 7119 05:49:20,240 --> 05:49:25,680 It had a simple face, hands shaped like 7120 05:49:23,200 --> 05:49:29,360 a sea and feet made to stand on [music] 7121 05:49:25,680 --> 05:49:31,280 studs. A tiny character that let kids 7122 05:49:29,360 --> 05:49:32,798 project themselves into entire 7123 05:49:31,280 --> 05:49:35,440 universes. 7124 05:49:32,798 --> 05:49:39,680 Stories now had heroes and Lego [music] 7125 05:49:35,440 --> 05:49:41,840 had a heartbeat. In the late 1970s, Lego 7126 05:49:39,680 --> 05:49:44,480 was already run by the third Christensen 7127 05:49:41,840 --> 05:49:47,280 generation. Ole's grandson [music] 7128 05:49:44,480 --> 05:49:50,638 killed began shaping the company into 7129 05:49:47,280 --> 05:49:52,240 the global powerhouse we know today. 7130 05:49:50,638 --> 05:49:54,958 He did so by creating [music] more 7131 05:49:52,240 --> 05:49:58,240 sophisticated lines, bringing in new 7132 05:49:54,958 --> 05:50:00,638 universes, technic brought mechanics, 7133 05:49:58,240 --> 05:50:03,600 pirates brought adventure, and trains 7134 05:50:00,638 --> 05:50:06,000 brought motion. By the late 20th 7135 05:50:03,600 --> 05:50:08,958 century, the global toy market was 7136 05:50:06,000 --> 05:50:11,120 becoming massive. Tens of billions of 7137 05:50:08,958 --> 05:50:13,040 dollars a year worth. 7138 05:50:11,120 --> 05:50:15,840 The United States [music] spent more on 7139 05:50:13,040 --> 05:50:17,680 toys than any country on Earth. And 7140 05:50:15,840 --> 05:50:21,200 China produced [music] most of them, 7141 05:50:17,680 --> 05:50:24,160 nearly 3/4 of the world's total. 7142 05:50:21,200 --> 05:50:27,058 In this booming landscape, Lego wasn't 7143 05:50:24,160 --> 05:50:29,078 just another toy. It was the toy. 7144 05:50:27,058 --> 05:50:29,078 [music] 7145 05:50:34,638 --> 05:50:39,360 By the late 1990s, [music] 7146 05:50:36,638 --> 05:50:42,080 Lego was flying high. It had become one 7147 05:50:39,360 --> 05:50:43,360 of the most admired companies in Europe. 7148 05:50:42,080 --> 05:50:45,520 A creative powerhouse [music] 7149 05:50:43,360 --> 05:50:48,240 built on the philosophy of imagination 7150 05:50:45,520 --> 05:50:49,840 and creation. We're not focused only on 7151 05:50:48,240 --> 05:50:52,000 childhood, but on [music] something that 7152 05:50:49,840 --> 05:50:54,080 has quite literally built us, pun 7153 05:50:52,000 --> 05:50:56,798 intended, shaping our personalities 7154 05:50:54,080 --> 05:50:58,878 through Lego from an early age. Those 7155 05:50:56,798 --> 05:51:01,768 memories became a foundation we've kept 7156 05:50:58,878 --> 05:51:02,558 building on over time. 7157 05:51:01,768 --> 05:51:04,480 [music] 7158 05:51:02,558 --> 05:51:06,400 That's why exhibitions like this bring 7159 05:51:04,480 --> 05:51:09,360 us straight back to childhood. The 7160 05:51:06,400 --> 05:51:11,440 audience here is very diverse, but once 7161 05:51:09,360 --> 05:51:13,680 people walk in, they all become the boy 7162 05:51:11,440 --> 05:51:16,638 or girl they once were. 7163 05:51:13,680 --> 05:51:18,958 >> But it's not all gold that glitters. 7164 05:51:16,638 --> 05:51:21,920 Under the surface, something dangerous 7165 05:51:18,958 --> 05:51:24,160 was creeping in. The toy market was 7166 05:51:21,920 --> 05:51:25,520 changing fast. Children were spending 7167 05:51:24,160 --> 05:51:28,480 more and more [music] time with video 7168 05:51:25,520 --> 05:51:30,798 games and early computer entertainment. 7169 05:51:28,480 --> 05:51:32,480 Sony's PlayStation, Nintendo, and 7170 05:51:30,798 --> 05:51:35,280 Hasbro's electronic [music] toys were 7171 05:51:32,480 --> 05:51:38,000 capturing attention. And LEGO, 7172 05:51:35,280 --> 05:51:40,718 determined not to fall behind, expanded 7173 05:51:38,000 --> 05:51:43,200 too far too fast. 7174 05:51:40,718 --> 05:51:45,360 Throughout the 1990s, [music] LEGO began 7175 05:51:43,200 --> 05:51:48,160 introducing thousands of completely new 7176 05:51:45,360 --> 05:51:51,120 pieces, specialized parts that not only 7177 05:51:48,160 --> 05:51:54,958 worked in one set. A single year could 7178 05:51:51,120 --> 05:51:57,120 bring more than 350 new designs. Each of 7179 05:51:54,958 --> 05:51:59,520 them costing tens of thousands of 7180 05:51:57,120 --> 05:52:01,760 dollars in steel machining and precision 7181 05:51:59,520 --> 05:52:03,600 engineering. 7182 05:52:01,760 --> 05:52:05,920 In 2002, 7183 05:52:03,600 --> 05:52:08,878 LEGO had more than 12,000 active 7184 05:52:05,920 --> 05:52:11,360 elements. The system of play, once 7185 05:52:08,878 --> 05:52:14,638 simple and universal, was becoming 7186 05:52:11,360 --> 05:52:17,680 chaotic and difficult to follow. LEGO 7187 05:52:14,638 --> 05:52:19,760 also tried becoming a lifestyle brand. 7188 05:52:17,680 --> 05:52:22,958 New ventures appeared everywhere. 7189 05:52:19,760 --> 05:52:25,120 Clothing lines, theme parks, homegoods, 7190 05:52:22,958 --> 05:52:26,878 cartoon series, even watches and 7191 05:52:25,120 --> 05:52:28,798 sneakers. 7192 05:52:26,878 --> 05:52:31,360 But these projects drained resources 7193 05:52:28,798 --> 05:52:35,440 without reinforcing the core product. 7194 05:52:31,360 --> 05:52:39,280 the brick. And between 1999 and [music] 7195 05:52:35,440 --> 05:52:41,440 2003, LEGO sales collapsed. 7196 05:52:39,280 --> 05:52:43,950 During these years, the company went 7197 05:52:41,440 --> 05:52:46,798 from doubledigit growth to struggling. 7198 05:52:43,950 --> 05:52:49,120 [music] And by 2003, the company was 7199 05:52:46,798 --> 05:52:52,240 losing the equivalent of $1 million a 7200 05:52:49,120 --> 05:52:55,360 day. In a global toy [music] market, 7201 05:52:52,240 --> 05:52:58,320 still worth more than $70 billion US at 7202 05:52:55,360 --> 05:53:00,320 the time, Lego, once the king of the toy 7203 05:52:58,320 --> 05:53:02,240 box, [music] was only a few steps away 7204 05:53:00,320 --> 05:53:05,360 from bankruptcy. 7205 05:53:02,240 --> 05:53:09,600 Times were dark, but a spark of genius 7206 05:53:05,360 --> 05:53:12,000 appeared. In 1999, LEGO signed its first 7207 05:53:09,600 --> 05:53:13,840 ever licensing deal with no other than 7208 05:53:12,000 --> 05:53:16,878 Lucasfilm. 7209 05:53:13,840 --> 05:53:20,160 The timing was perfect. Star Wars 7210 05:53:16,878 --> 05:53:22,878 Episode 1 was about to hit theaters. 7211 05:53:20,160 --> 05:53:25,920 Hype was global and the first Lego Star 7212 05:53:22,878 --> 05:53:29,120 Wars sets were instant hits, not just 7213 05:53:25,920 --> 05:53:31,200 with children, with adults. Collectors 7214 05:53:29,120 --> 05:53:33,280 lined up to buy the X-wing, the 7215 05:53:31,200 --> 05:53:36,638 Snowspeeder, or the first Millennium 7216 05:53:33,280 --> 05:53:39,440 Falcon. For the first time in LEGO's 7217 05:53:36,638 --> 05:53:42,240 history, adults, including those in 7218 05:53:39,440 --> 05:53:43,120 their 30s and 40s, were buying sets for 7219 05:53:42,240 --> 05:53:45,040 themselves. 7220 05:53:43,120 --> 05:53:47,840 >> The adult fan of Lego community is 7221 05:53:45,040 --> 05:53:49,920 getting bigger. This is because Lego is 7222 05:53:47,840 --> 05:53:52,400 not the same as it was 20 or 30 years 7223 05:53:49,920 --> 05:53:54,718 ago. 7224 05:53:52,400 --> 05:53:56,558 Before, Lego was only seen as a toy to 7225 05:53:54,718 --> 05:53:59,558 play with when it was cold and you were 7226 05:53:56,558 --> 05:53:59,558 indoors. 7227 05:53:59,920 --> 05:54:04,798 Today, Lego is much more than a toy. 7228 05:54:02,400 --> 05:54:07,120 It's used to create logos to design 7229 05:54:04,798 --> 05:54:10,080 dynamic group activities. And it also 7230 05:54:07,120 --> 05:54:12,320 represents a shift in how we see it. 7231 05:54:10,080 --> 05:54:14,718 years ago, if you said you played with 7232 05:54:12,320 --> 05:54:17,120 Lego or built Lego, you almost had to 7233 05:54:14,718 --> 05:54:18,958 explain yourself that you were at home 7234 05:54:17,120 --> 05:54:21,760 playing with little figures making up 7235 05:54:18,958 --> 05:54:23,600 battles. What we do today is different. 7236 05:54:21,760 --> 05:54:27,360 We come together as a community of 7237 05:54:23,600 --> 05:54:29,200 adults and LEGO has recognized that. 7238 05:54:27,360 --> 05:54:31,520 That's why more and more products are 7239 05:54:29,200 --> 05:54:34,160 now designed specifically for adults, 7240 05:54:31,520 --> 05:54:37,160 more complex to build, and also more 7241 05:54:34,160 --> 05:54:37,160 expensive. 7242 05:54:38,320 --> 05:54:42,638 This kid demographic [music] would later 7243 05:54:40,638 --> 05:54:45,780 become one of LEGO's most profitable 7244 05:54:42,638 --> 05:54:47,840 segments. More licenses followed. 7245 05:54:45,780 --> 05:54:50,718 [music] Harry Potter, Spider-Man, 7246 05:54:47,840 --> 05:54:53,760 Batman, Indiana Jones, and later the 7247 05:54:50,718 --> 05:54:55,360 newest Marvel Cinematic Universe. 7248 05:54:53,760 --> 05:54:58,160 Even though LEGO learned that 7249 05:54:55,360 --> 05:55:00,558 storytelling sells, in 2004, [music] 7250 05:54:58,160 --> 05:55:02,080 losses were mounting and survival was 7251 05:55:00,558 --> 05:55:04,080 uncertain. 7252 05:55:02,080 --> 05:55:06,080 And then [music] the company made a 7253 05:55:04,080 --> 05:55:08,480 radical decision. 7254 05:55:06,080 --> 05:55:10,878 For the first time in its history, the 7255 05:55:08,480 --> 05:55:14,558 company appointed a CEO from outside the 7256 05:55:10,878 --> 05:55:16,958 Christensen family, Jurgen Victor, 7257 05:55:14,558 --> 05:55:20,798 a 35-year-old former McKenzie 7258 05:55:16,958 --> 05:55:22,320 consultant. He was calm, precise, 7259 05:55:20,798 --> 05:55:26,000 analytical, 7260 05:55:22,320 --> 05:55:29,760 and brutally honest. His diagnosis was 7261 05:55:26,000 --> 05:55:31,600 simple. Lego had forgotten what made it 7262 05:55:29,760 --> 05:55:33,840 Lego. 7263 05:55:31,600 --> 05:55:37,200 Kutto cut the number of unique elements 7264 05:55:33,840 --> 05:55:39,840 by nearly 50%. He sold off the theme 7265 05:55:37,200 --> 05:55:42,638 parks. He shut down unprofitable 7266 05:55:39,840 --> 05:55:44,638 production facilities. He centralized 7267 05:55:42,638 --> 05:55:46,958 supply [music] chains, standardized 7268 05:55:44,638 --> 05:55:50,160 materials, and brought back discipline 7269 05:55:46,958 --> 05:55:52,240 to the system. But more important, he 7270 05:55:50,160 --> 05:55:55,240 put the brick back at the center of the 7271 05:55:52,240 --> 05:55:55,240 company. 7272 05:55:56,878 --> 05:56:01,760 This turnaround didn't happen in 7273 05:55:58,718 --> 05:56:05,040 isolation. The global toy industry was 7274 05:56:01,760 --> 05:56:07,680 undergoing a seismic change. China was 7275 05:56:05,040 --> 05:56:10,160 producing nearly 75% of the world's 7276 05:56:07,680 --> 05:56:13,280 toys, being the largest manufacturing 7277 05:56:10,160 --> 05:56:15,440 consolidation in toy history. 7278 05:56:13,280 --> 05:56:18,000 Meanwhile, the United States had become 7279 05:56:15,440 --> 05:56:20,240 the single largest consumer, responsible 7280 05:56:18,000 --> 05:56:23,240 for nearly onethird of the global toy 7281 05:56:20,240 --> 05:56:23,240 spending. 7282 05:56:23,440 --> 05:56:30,000 By 2005, the [music] toy market was 7283 05:56:26,400 --> 05:56:32,958 worth close to $80 billion US. But it 7284 05:56:30,000 --> 05:56:35,840 was brutally competitive as well. 7285 05:56:32,958 --> 05:56:38,320 Seasonality was extreme. Nearly half of 7286 05:56:35,840 --> 05:56:41,920 the annual toy sales occurred in just 3 7287 05:56:38,320 --> 05:56:45,040 months from October to December. 7288 05:56:41,920 --> 05:56:46,718 Companies lived or died by Christmas. 7289 05:56:45,040 --> 05:56:49,440 Mattel was [music] battling declining 7290 05:56:46,718 --> 05:56:51,120 Barbie sales. Hasbro was betting its 7291 05:56:49,440 --> 05:56:52,958 future on Transformers and board [music] 7292 05:56:51,120 --> 05:56:54,798 game reinventions. 7293 05:56:52,958 --> 05:56:57,760 Electronics were eating market share 7294 05:56:54,798 --> 05:57:00,240 across every age group. In this 7295 05:56:57,760 --> 05:57:04,160 scenario, LEGO rebuilt [music] 7296 05:57:00,240 --> 05:57:07,262 and refocused and then began rising 7297 05:57:04,160 --> 05:57:09,282 above all of them. 7298 05:57:07,262 --> 05:57:09,282 [snorts] 7299 05:57:11,280 --> 05:57:18,080 Between 2008 and 2015, LEGO entered a 7300 05:57:15,520 --> 05:57:20,558 new era, [music] a renaissance driven by 7301 05:57:18,080 --> 05:57:24,000 design, storytelling, digital 7302 05:57:20,558 --> 05:57:25,840 engagement, and [music] adult passion. 7303 05:57:24,000 --> 05:57:28,798 The company launched the ultimate 7304 05:57:25,840 --> 05:57:30,718 collector series, producing the largest, 7305 05:57:28,798 --> 05:57:32,240 most detailed [music] models in toy 7306 05:57:30,718 --> 05:57:34,480 history. 7307 05:57:32,240 --> 05:57:36,080 LEGO architecture brought landmarks to 7308 05:57:34,480 --> 05:57:38,320 coffee tables. [music] 7309 05:57:36,080 --> 05:57:40,958 Modular buildings turned living rooms 7310 05:57:38,320 --> 05:57:43,360 into miniature cities, and adults were 7311 05:57:40,958 --> 05:57:46,240 no longer hiding their Lego hobby, but 7312 05:57:43,360 --> 05:57:48,240 embracing it. My story with Lego began 7313 05:57:46,240 --> 05:57:50,240 in the early '9s when I was a small 7314 05:57:48,240 --> 05:57:52,320 child. 7315 05:57:50,240 --> 05:57:54,240 I started playing, but then I stopped 7316 05:57:52,320 --> 05:57:55,920 for a while. 7317 05:57:54,240 --> 05:57:58,240 This is what most of us want to do when 7318 05:57:55,920 --> 05:58:02,600 we are teenagers to do other hobbies and 7319 05:57:58,240 --> 05:58:02,600 spend less time playing with Lego. 7320 05:58:03,200 --> 05:58:08,480 After that, when I was in my early 20s, 7321 05:58:05,120 --> 05:58:10,638 I started collecting Lego. I met people 7322 05:58:08,480 --> 05:58:13,200 from the Valencian community and founded 7323 05:58:10,638 --> 05:58:15,120 Valrech. 7324 05:58:13,200 --> 05:58:17,600 That eventually led me to a television 7325 05:58:15,120 --> 05:58:19,840 show where I took part and won. From 7326 05:58:17,600 --> 05:58:23,320 there, companies began approaching me to 7327 05:58:19,840 --> 05:58:23,320 develop projects. 7328 05:58:24,638 --> 05:58:28,320 At first, this hadn't even occurred to 7329 05:58:26,558 --> 05:58:30,718 me, 7330 05:58:28,320 --> 05:58:32,958 but I started to see a growing demand. 7331 05:58:30,718 --> 05:58:35,200 Whether it was building a corporate kit, 7332 05:58:32,958 --> 05:58:38,480 like a transport company's truck, or 7333 05:58:35,200 --> 05:58:40,160 even a company's logistics headquarters, 7334 05:58:38,480 --> 05:58:42,240 this market opened up a professional 7335 05:58:40,160 --> 05:58:44,160 path for me. 7336 05:58:42,240 --> 05:58:47,680 It supports me financially, but more 7337 05:58:44,160 --> 05:58:49,600 importantly, it's deeply rewarding. 7338 05:58:47,680 --> 05:58:51,280 Many of these projects challenge me to 7339 05:58:49,600 --> 05:58:52,718 build things I would never choose on my 7340 05:58:51,280 --> 05:58:55,440 own. 7341 05:58:52,718 --> 05:58:57,360 But once a challenge is set, build this. 7342 05:58:55,440 --> 05:59:00,160 My mind immediately starts collecting 7343 05:58:57,360 --> 05:59:02,160 ideas, figuring out how to shape them 7344 05:59:00,160 --> 05:59:06,040 and bring the project to life in the 7345 05:59:02,160 --> 05:59:06,040 best possible way. 7346 05:59:10,402 --> 05:59:12,422 [music] 7347 05:59:12,798 --> 05:59:17,680 events, engineering cups, a [music] 7348 05:59:15,200 --> 05:59:21,440 global movement emerged. 7349 05:59:17,680 --> 05:59:23,280 By 2014, adults accounted for nearly 1/3 7350 05:59:21,440 --> 05:59:25,760 of [music] LEGO sales. 7351 05:59:23,280 --> 05:59:28,080 >> To anyone who thinks Lego is only for 7352 05:59:25,760 --> 05:59:29,600 children, I'd say come and see the 7353 05:59:28,080 --> 05:59:31,440 exhibition. 7354 05:59:29,600 --> 05:59:34,240 See what we're capable of creating with 7355 05:59:31,440 --> 05:59:38,240 Lego pieces and how imagination develops 7356 05:59:34,240 --> 05:59:40,400 in both children and adults. 7357 05:59:38,240 --> 05:59:43,280 Children work within certain limits and 7358 05:59:40,400 --> 05:59:45,920 see things differently, but adults with 7359 05:59:43,280 --> 05:59:48,558 a wider range of colors, shapes, and 7360 05:59:45,920 --> 05:59:51,760 ways to use the pieces can explore just 7361 05:59:48,558 --> 05:59:53,632 how much is possible. 7362 05:59:51,760 --> 05:59:56,080 >> It was a radical shift in the economics 7363 05:59:53,632 --> 05:59:58,480 [music] of play. And then came the 7364 05:59:56,080 --> 06:00:01,520 cultural explosion. 7365 05:59:58,480 --> 06:00:04,638 In 2014, The Lego Movie shattered 7366 06:00:01,520 --> 06:00:07,920 expectations, earning nearly $500 7367 06:00:04,638 --> 06:00:10,878 million US at the box office. 7368 06:00:07,920 --> 06:00:15,200 What started as a toy was now pop 7369 06:00:10,878 --> 06:00:17,212 culture. By the mid 2010s, LEGO was the 7370 06:00:15,200 --> 06:00:19,520 world's most valuable toy company, 7371 06:00:17,212 --> 06:00:22,240 [music] even surpassing Mattel, Hasbro, 7372 06:00:19,520 --> 06:00:24,240 and every other competitor. 7373 06:00:22,240 --> 06:00:27,680 The brick that [music] started it all 7374 06:00:24,240 --> 06:00:31,024 was no longer just a product. It was a 7375 06:00:27,680 --> 06:00:31,024 global icon. [music] 7376 06:00:33,120 --> 06:00:37,200 The LEGO Group stands today as [music] 7377 06:00:35,200 --> 06:00:39,200 one of the most efficient, profitable, 7378 06:00:37,200 --> 06:00:42,000 and culturally influential toy companies 7379 06:00:39,200 --> 06:00:44,240 on Earth. Its factories run with near 7380 06:00:42,000 --> 06:00:46,400 perfect precision. 7381 06:00:44,240 --> 06:00:49,600 Its design teams develop thousands of 7382 06:00:46,400 --> 06:00:51,600 prototypes each year. Its supply chain 7383 06:00:49,600 --> 06:00:54,400 delivers billions of bricks that must 7384 06:00:51,600 --> 06:00:56,240 all fit together flawlessly across 7385 06:00:54,400 --> 06:00:58,958 decades. 7386 06:00:56,240 --> 06:01:02,958 In a global toy market worth roughly 7387 06:00:58,958 --> 06:01:07,280 $120 billion a year, Lego commands 7388 06:01:02,958 --> 06:01:10,160 nearly 9% of all worldwide toy sales. No 7389 06:01:07,280 --> 06:01:13,040 other toy brand, not Barbie, not Marvel 7390 06:01:10,160 --> 06:01:15,200 figures, not Nintendo merchandise, 7391 06:01:13,040 --> 06:01:17,474 maintains such consistency across 7392 06:01:15,200 --> 06:01:18,878 continents, genders, and generations. 7393 06:01:17,474 --> 06:01:20,878 [music] 7394 06:01:18,878 --> 06:01:24,000 And unlike most toy companies that 7395 06:01:20,878 --> 06:01:25,440 outsource manufacturing, LEGO controls a 7396 06:01:24,000 --> 06:01:28,558 significant portion of its own 7397 06:01:25,440 --> 06:01:31,120 production with major hubs in Denmark, 7398 06:01:28,558 --> 06:01:33,120 Hungary, Mexico, China, and the Czech 7399 06:01:31,120 --> 06:01:35,920 Republic. 7400 06:01:33,120 --> 06:01:38,160 This vertical integration reduces risk, 7401 06:01:35,920 --> 06:01:40,320 stabilizes [music] quality, and protects 7402 06:01:38,160 --> 06:01:43,680 one of the most important values in the 7403 06:01:40,320 --> 06:01:45,920 company's DNA, precision. 7404 06:01:43,680 --> 06:01:48,240 Every Lego brick must be manufactured 7405 06:01:45,920 --> 06:01:51,360 with tolerances thinner than a strand of 7406 06:01:48,240 --> 06:01:54,878 hair. If the clutch is too tight, the 7407 06:01:51,360 --> 06:01:58,000 model breaks. If it's too loose, towers 7408 06:01:54,878 --> 06:02:00,718 collapse. Across billions of pieces, 7409 06:01:58,000 --> 06:02:04,878 perfection is not an ambition. [music] 7410 06:02:00,718 --> 06:02:06,958 It is an engineering reality for LEGO. 7411 06:02:04,878 --> 06:02:09,120 This level of detail gives the company 7412 06:02:06,958 --> 06:02:11,840 one of the highest brand trust ratings 7413 06:02:09,120 --> 06:02:13,040 in the world. Parents know the bricks 7414 06:02:11,840 --> 06:02:15,520 will last. 7415 06:02:13,040 --> 06:02:17,760 Adults know the sets will impress. 7416 06:02:15,520 --> 06:02:19,440 Collectors know the investment will hold 7417 06:02:17,760 --> 06:02:21,680 value. 7418 06:02:19,440 --> 06:02:24,480 The modern toy market is a machine of 7419 06:02:21,680 --> 06:02:26,160 impulse, tradition, celebration, and 7420 06:02:24,480 --> 06:02:28,080 nostalgia. 7421 06:02:26,160 --> 06:02:31,600 In 2025, 7422 06:02:28,080 --> 06:02:34,638 global spending on toys approaches $120 7423 06:02:31,600 --> 06:02:37,360 billion, nearly double what it was two 7424 06:02:34,638 --> 06:02:39,920 decades earlier. The United States 7425 06:02:37,360 --> 06:02:41,680 remains the world's largest consumer, 7426 06:02:39,920 --> 06:02:44,558 accounting for roughly onethird of 7427 06:02:41,680 --> 06:02:47,200 global sales. A typical American 7428 06:02:44,558 --> 06:02:49,920 household with children may spend $300 7429 06:02:47,200 --> 06:02:52,878 to $400 per [music] child per year on 7430 06:02:49,920 --> 06:02:55,200 toys. This is more than five times the 7431 06:02:52,878 --> 06:02:57,600 global average. 7432 06:02:55,200 --> 06:02:59,280 Europe forms the second largest block 7433 06:02:57,600 --> 06:03:02,798 with strong purchasing [music] power in 7434 06:02:59,280 --> 06:03:05,200 Germany, the United Kingdom, and France. 7435 06:03:02,798 --> 06:03:07,680 Asia-Pacific [music] is rapidly growing, 7436 06:03:05,200 --> 06:03:10,558 especially in China, South Korea, and 7437 06:03:07,680 --> 06:03:13,200 Japan, driven by rising middle classes 7438 06:03:10,558 --> 06:03:15,378 and urban lifestyles. 7439 06:03:13,200 --> 06:03:18,958 But the most important shift of the last 7440 06:03:15,378 --> 06:03:20,616 [music] decade is not geographic, it is 7441 06:03:18,958 --> 06:03:22,634 demographic. 7442 06:03:20,616 --> 06:03:22,634 [laughter] 7443 06:03:26,080 --> 06:03:30,638 adults. Once considered [music] 7444 06:03:28,080 --> 06:03:33,600 irrelevant to the toy industry and now 7445 06:03:30,638 --> 06:03:36,320 one of the most powerful forces, this 7446 06:03:33,600 --> 06:03:39,360 growing segment, commonly called the kid 7447 06:03:36,320 --> 06:03:43,360 market, now represents between 25 and 7448 06:03:39,360 --> 06:03:45,920 30% of all toy purchases worldwide. 7449 06:03:43,360 --> 06:03:49,040 Adults buy toys for nostalgia, for 7450 06:03:45,920 --> 06:03:52,000 stress [music] relief, for display, for 7451 06:03:49,040 --> 06:03:54,480 identity. Lego is the undisputed 7452 06:03:52,000 --> 06:03:59,638 champion of this movement. Unlike other 7453 06:03:54,480 --> 06:03:59,638 hobbies, Lego gives me a sense of calm. 7454 06:04:00,718 --> 06:04:05,360 It lets me take ideas from my mind, 7455 06:04:03,120 --> 06:04:08,718 bring them to life, think them through, 7456 06:04:05,360 --> 06:04:11,520 and simply enjoy the process. Right now, 7457 06:04:08,718 --> 06:04:14,080 I'm trying to instill that in my son to 7458 06:04:11,520 --> 06:04:16,000 enjoy himself to learn to see colors and 7459 06:04:14,080 --> 06:04:19,440 shapes and to understand that with 7460 06:04:16,000 --> 06:04:22,718 imagination, anything is possible. 7461 06:04:19,440 --> 06:04:25,280 Its premium sets, Technic Hypercars, 7462 06:04:22,718 --> 06:04:28,000 Star Wars Ultimate Collector Series, 7463 06:04:25,280 --> 06:04:30,320 iconic landmarks, regularly exceed 7464 06:04:28,000 --> 06:04:32,638 prices of $30,500, 7465 06:04:30,320 --> 06:04:35,360 even $800. 7466 06:04:32,638 --> 06:04:37,200 They sell out within hours. They hold 7467 06:04:35,360 --> 06:04:40,000 aftermarket values like fine 7468 06:04:37,200 --> 06:04:42,320 collectibles. This adult segment has 7469 06:04:40,000 --> 06:04:45,360 reshaped the entire financial landscape 7470 06:04:42,320 --> 06:04:48,480 of the company. It provides stability 7471 06:04:45,360 --> 06:04:51,680 when children's trends shift. It creates 7472 06:04:48,480 --> 06:04:53,840 recurring revenue from loyal fans and it 7473 06:04:51,680 --> 06:04:56,718 strengthens LEGO's position as a 7474 06:04:53,840 --> 06:04:58,000 crossgenerational brand, something few 7475 06:04:56,718 --> 06:04:59,760 toy companies have [music] ever 7476 06:04:58,000 --> 06:05:02,000 achieved. 7477 06:04:59,760 --> 06:05:04,958 Seasonality still dictates much of the 7478 06:05:02,000 --> 06:05:07,280 global toy market. Every year, nearly 7479 06:05:04,958 --> 06:05:10,638 half of all toy sales occur between 7480 06:05:07,280 --> 06:05:13,520 October and December. Companies live or 7481 06:05:10,638 --> 06:05:16,798 die by holiday forecasting, inventory 7482 06:05:13,520 --> 06:05:19,520 strategy, and shipment timing. But LEGO 7483 06:05:16,798 --> 06:05:22,400 has become the exception. Adult 7484 06:05:19,520 --> 06:05:24,718 collectors buy year round. Digital 7485 06:05:22,400 --> 06:05:27,840 experiences drive sales outside the 7486 06:05:24,718 --> 06:05:31,120 holiday season. Licensed launches create 7487 06:05:27,840 --> 06:05:33,840 anticipation even in slow quarters. 7488 06:05:31,120 --> 06:05:35,840 LEGO has effectively freed itself or at 7489 06:05:33,840 --> 06:05:37,920 least partially from the seasonal 7490 06:05:35,840 --> 06:05:41,360 dependency that has defined the toy 7491 06:05:37,920 --> 06:05:45,200 industry for over a century. The brick 7492 06:05:41,360 --> 06:05:47,680 is physical, tangible, mechanical. But 7493 06:05:45,200 --> 06:05:51,440 Lego's success in the 21st century 7494 06:05:47,680 --> 06:05:55,120 extends into digital worlds. Star Wars, 7495 06:05:51,440 --> 06:05:57,120 Batman, Marvel. These games defined an 7496 06:05:55,120 --> 06:06:00,160 entire generation of familyfriendly 7497 06:05:57,120 --> 06:06:02,878 titles. They sold tens of millions of 7498 06:06:00,160 --> 06:06:05,840 copies. They introduced humor, 7499 06:06:02,878 --> 06:06:08,798 storytelling, and simplicity to a medium 7500 06:06:05,840 --> 06:06:10,958 often dominated by complexity. 7501 06:06:08,798 --> 06:06:13,540 For many children born after the year 7502 06:06:10,958 --> 06:06:16,798 2000, Lego was not discovered in a 7503 06:06:13,540 --> 06:06:20,000 [music] toy box, but on a screen. The 7504 06:06:16,798 --> 06:06:22,878 cinematic leap came in 2014 when the 7505 06:06:20,000 --> 06:06:25,920 Lego movie premiered to global acclaim. 7506 06:06:22,878 --> 06:06:28,878 It turned nearly half a billion dollars. 7507 06:06:25,920 --> 06:06:32,240 Most importantly, it reframed Lego as a 7508 06:06:28,878 --> 06:06:34,558 cultural idea, not a product. The film 7509 06:06:32,240 --> 06:06:37,840 taught a global audience that creativity 7510 06:06:34,558 --> 06:06:39,920 matters, that imperfection is beautiful, 7511 06:06:37,840 --> 06:06:43,680 that building and rebuilding are not 7512 06:06:39,920 --> 06:06:46,798 failures, they are the process of play. 7513 06:06:43,680 --> 06:06:49,040 Lego Batman expanded the concept. Lego 7514 06:06:46,798 --> 06:06:52,320 Ninjago created an entirely new 7515 06:06:49,040 --> 06:06:54,400 generation of fans and Lego Masters on 7516 06:06:52,320 --> 06:06:56,558 television turned building into a 7517 06:06:54,400 --> 06:06:59,360 competitive art form. 7518 06:06:56,558 --> 06:07:02,638 The brand had moved beyond toys, beyond 7519 06:06:59,360 --> 06:07:05,200 stories, beyond bricks. It had become 7520 06:07:02,638 --> 06:07:08,200 part of the cultural grammar of the 21st 7521 06:07:05,200 --> 06:07:08,200 century. 7522 06:07:11,920 --> 06:07:16,240 Long before STEM became a global 7523 06:07:14,000 --> 06:07:19,440 movement, Lego was already teaching 7524 06:07:16,240 --> 06:07:22,958 children how to think like engineers. In 7525 06:07:19,440 --> 06:07:25,360 the 1990s, Lego Mindstorms introduced 7526 06:07:22,958 --> 06:07:28,798 programmable robotics to students around 7527 06:07:25,360 --> 06:07:31,600 the [music] world. Later sets, we do 7528 06:07:28,798 --> 06:07:33,840 Spike Prime Boost brought coding, 7529 06:07:31,600 --> 06:07:37,120 sensors, and motors into classrooms and 7530 06:07:33,840 --> 06:07:39,360 homes. Today, [music] LEGO Education 7531 06:07:37,120 --> 06:07:41,600 works with governments, schools, and 7532 06:07:39,360 --> 06:07:43,920 universities to bring hands-on learning 7533 06:07:41,600 --> 06:07:46,558 to millions of students. [music] 7534 06:07:43,920 --> 06:07:49,280 The philosophy is simple. Children learn 7535 06:07:46,558 --> 06:07:52,240 best through play. This approach shapes 7536 06:07:49,280 --> 06:07:53,520 future engineers, designers, and problem 7537 06:07:52,240 --> 06:07:55,440 solvers. [music] 7538 06:07:53,520 --> 06:07:58,558 It helps children experiment in ways 7539 06:07:55,440 --> 06:08:01,280 that textbooks cannot. And it continues 7540 06:07:58,558 --> 06:08:03,600 Olirk's belief that play is [music] not 7541 06:08:01,280 --> 06:08:06,320 a distraction from learning, but the 7542 06:08:03,600 --> 06:08:08,164 foundation of it. 7543 06:08:06,320 --> 06:08:09,120 In a world increasingly focused on 7544 06:08:08,164 --> 06:08:11,120 [music] sustainability, 7545 06:08:09,120 --> 06:08:13,120 >> from my experience, what makes Lego 7546 06:08:11,120 --> 06:08:15,920 different from other construction toys 7547 06:08:13,120 --> 06:08:18,240 is its growing commitment to inclusion. 7548 06:08:15,920 --> 06:08:19,600 In recent years, LEGO has actively 7549 06:08:18,240 --> 06:08:21,840 embraced people with different 7550 06:08:19,600 --> 06:08:23,760 abilities. For example, by including 7551 06:08:21,840 --> 06:08:26,480 figures in wheelchairs and releasing 7552 06:08:23,760 --> 06:08:28,320 sets in Braille. These are things most 7553 06:08:26,480 --> 06:08:30,400 other brands simply don't offer, but 7554 06:08:28,320 --> 06:08:32,638 LEGO does. 7555 06:08:30,400 --> 06:08:34,558 In addition, LEGO is strongly committed 7556 06:08:32,638 --> 06:08:36,160 to the environment. 7557 06:08:34,558 --> 06:08:38,400 They're producing more and more pieces 7558 06:08:36,160 --> 06:08:40,320 using recycled plastic and replacing 7559 06:08:38,400 --> 06:08:43,120 plastic packaging with paper to reduce 7560 06:08:40,320 --> 06:08:45,760 waste, something other brands simply 7561 06:08:43,120 --> 06:08:48,798 don't do. 7562 06:08:45,760 --> 06:08:51,280 Lego faces a unique challenge. Its 7563 06:08:48,798 --> 06:08:53,760 bricks are made to last forever. A 7564 06:08:51,280 --> 06:08:57,440 blessing for creativity, but a concern 7565 06:08:53,760 --> 06:08:59,200 in an era of plastic waste. In response, 7566 06:08:57,440 --> 06:09:01,440 LEGO has [music] invested hundreds of 7567 06:08:59,200 --> 06:09:03,600 millions of dollars into developing more 7568 06:09:01,440 --> 06:09:05,280 sustainable materials. 7569 06:09:03,600 --> 06:09:08,240 Plant-based polyethylene [music] 7570 06:09:05,280 --> 06:09:10,798 is already used for leaves and trees. 7571 06:09:08,240 --> 06:09:12,480 Recycled PT [music] prototypes continue 7572 06:09:10,798 --> 06:09:15,040 to advance. 7573 06:09:12,480 --> 06:09:18,480 Recycled PET prototypes continue to 7574 06:09:15,040 --> 06:09:21,520 advance. New polymer engineering aims to 7575 06:09:18,480 --> 06:09:24,718 create bricks as durable [music] as ABS 7576 06:09:21,520 --> 06:09:27,920 without the environmental cost. 7577 06:09:24,718 --> 06:09:29,680 This transition is not simple. A Lego 7578 06:09:27,920 --> 06:09:32,240 brick must interlock with [music] 7579 06:09:29,680 --> 06:09:33,920 perfect precision. A fraction of a 7580 06:09:32,240 --> 06:09:36,718 millimeter can make the difference 7581 06:09:33,920 --> 06:09:39,440 between wonder and frustration. [music] 7582 06:09:36,718 --> 06:09:41,840 But the mission is clear. A toy that 7583 06:09:39,440 --> 06:09:44,958 lasts forever should also protect the 7584 06:09:41,840 --> 06:09:48,000 world it is played in. Play is not a 7585 06:09:44,958 --> 06:09:50,240 luxury. Play is exploration. [music] 7586 06:09:48,000 --> 06:09:52,558 Play is curiosity. 7587 06:09:50,240 --> 06:09:54,400 Play is the earliest form of human 7588 06:09:52,558 --> 06:09:56,480 creativity. [music] 7589 06:09:54,400 --> 06:09:59,040 From wooden ducks in a small Danish 7590 06:09:56,480 --> 06:10:01,120 workshop to interlocking bricks that 7591 06:09:59,040 --> 06:10:04,480 span generations 7592 06:10:01,120 --> 06:10:07,360 to movies, video games, robotics, and 7593 06:10:04,480 --> 06:10:08,718 global fan communities. LEGO has 7594 06:10:07,360 --> 06:10:12,558 remained [music] loyal to a simple 7595 06:10:08,718 --> 06:10:16,718 truth. When we build, we grow. When we 7596 06:10:12,558 --> 06:10:20,520 imagine, we expand. When we play, we 7597 06:10:16,718 --> 06:10:20,520 become more human. 7598 06:10:24,400 --> 06:10:30,160 More than a century ago, a carpenter 7599 06:10:27,200 --> 06:10:32,958 rebuilt his workshop after a fire. He 7600 06:10:30,160 --> 06:10:35,760 rebuilt it again after another. 7601 06:10:32,958 --> 06:10:38,240 Not because it was easy, but because he 7602 06:10:35,760 --> 06:10:41,680 believed in the power of making things 7603 06:10:38,240 --> 06:10:43,680 and in the power of play. Today, 7604 06:10:41,680 --> 06:10:47,280 billions of creations have risen from 7605 06:10:43,680 --> 06:10:49,120 that belief. Cities, castles, 7606 06:10:47,280 --> 06:10:51,120 spaceships, 7607 06:10:49,120 --> 06:10:54,320 dreams that exist nowhere else but in 7608 06:10:51,120 --> 06:10:57,360 the minds of the people who build them. 7609 06:10:54,320 --> 06:10:59,600 Lego is not perfect. It has faced 7610 06:10:57,360 --> 06:11:03,440 crises, challenges, [screaming] and 7611 06:10:59,600 --> 06:11:05,440 impossible decisions. But it endures 7612 06:11:03,440 --> 06:11:08,798 through war, through technological 7613 06:11:05,440 --> 06:11:12,480 revolutions, through economic storms. 7614 06:11:08,798 --> 06:11:14,400 Because imagination always endures. 7615 06:11:12,480 --> 06:11:16,806 And as long as there are hands reaching 7616 06:11:14,400 --> 06:11:19,680 for bricks, as long as there are minds 7617 06:11:16,806 --> 06:11:23,280 [music] ready to create, the legacy of 7618 06:11:19,680 --> 06:11:28,920 Ole Kirk Christensen will continue. 7619 06:11:23,280 --> 06:11:28,920 Every dream starts with a single piece. 7620 06:12:55,040 --> 06:13:02,718 Jensen Hang the Software Moat. 7621 06:12:59,280 --> 06:13:06,080 June 18th, 2024. 7622 06:13:02,718 --> 06:13:08,480 For a brief historic moment, the world 7623 06:13:06,080 --> 06:13:11,200 had a new king. 7624 06:13:08,480 --> 06:13:14,080 Jensen Huang, the [music] co-founder and 7625 06:13:11,200 --> 06:13:18,320 CEO of Nvidia, stood at the peak of a 7626 06:13:14,080 --> 06:13:20,638 $3.4 trillion mountain. 7627 06:13:18,320 --> 06:13:23,680 Analysts whispered that he wasn't just 7628 06:13:20,638 --> 06:13:27,280 leading a company. He was leading the 7629 06:13:23,680 --> 06:13:30,240 first entity destined for a $4 trillion 7630 06:13:27,280 --> 06:13:32,160 valuation. 7631 06:13:30,240 --> 06:13:35,680 But to understand the man in the leather 7632 06:13:32,160 --> 06:13:39,440 jacket, you cannot look at the triumph. 7633 06:13:35,680 --> 06:13:43,760 You must look at the fear. Behind the 7634 06:13:39,440 --> 06:13:47,200 250% revenue jumps and the soldout age 7635 06:13:43,760 --> 06:13:49,680 100 backlogs lies a leader obsessed with 7636 06:13:47,200 --> 06:13:51,440 the cyclical trap. 7637 06:13:49,680 --> 06:13:52,958 In the 60-year history of 7638 06:13:51,440 --> 06:13:55,760 semiconductors, 7639 06:13:52,958 --> 06:13:59,840 giants like Texas Instruments, Intel, 7640 06:13:55,760 --> 06:14:02,878 and Samsung have all held the crown only 7641 06:13:59,840 --> 06:14:05,920 to see it slip away. 7642 06:14:02,878 --> 06:14:10,438 Jensen's mission is simple. Break the 7643 06:14:05,920 --> 06:14:10,438 cycle before it breaks him. [music] 7644 06:14:10,718 --> 06:14:16,160 Flashback to September 1996. 7645 06:14:13,840 --> 06:14:18,798 The golden [music] era of the internet 7646 06:14:16,160 --> 06:14:22,798 is dawning for everyone else but for 7647 06:14:18,798 --> 06:14:25,920 Nvidia. It is a [music] death nail. 7648 06:14:22,798 --> 06:14:28,798 Their first chip, the NV1, is a 7649 06:14:25,920 --> 06:14:31,280 technical ghost rejected by Microsoft's 7650 06:14:28,798 --> 06:14:33,840 DirectX. [music] 7651 06:14:31,280 --> 06:14:36,638 Jensen stands before a dwindling team 7652 06:14:33,840 --> 06:14:39,280 and delivers the most famous mantra in 7653 06:14:36,638 --> 06:14:43,200 Silicon Valley history. 7654 06:14:39,280 --> 06:14:46,798 We have exactly 30 days of oxygen left. 7655 06:14:43,200 --> 06:14:49,120 We are 30 days from bankruptcy. 7656 06:14:46,798 --> 06:14:51,600 How does a man go from cleaning toilets 7657 06:14:49,120 --> 06:14:53,520 in a Kentucky reform school to 7658 06:14:51,600 --> 06:14:56,718 controlling the foundational layer of 7659 06:14:53,520 --> 06:14:59,520 the global AI economy? 7660 06:14:56,718 --> 06:15:02,798 From a red leather booth at a Denny's to 7661 06:14:59,520 --> 06:15:05,120 a legal showdown in the US Supreme Court 7662 06:15:02,798 --> 06:15:06,878 over the very intellectual honesty of 7663 06:15:05,120 --> 06:15:09,520 his empire. 7664 06:15:06,878 --> 06:15:11,120 This is not just a story of silicon and 7665 06:15:09,520 --> 06:15:13,200 software. 7666 06:15:11,120 --> 06:15:15,440 This is the chronicle of the man who 7667 06:15:13,200 --> 06:15:17,040 decided to manufacture intelligence 7668 06:15:15,440 --> 06:15:19,440 itself. 7669 06:15:17,040 --> 06:15:24,080 This is Jensen Hang, [music] 7670 06:15:19,440 --> 06:15:29,320 the architect of the digital brain. 7671 06:15:24,080 --> 06:15:29,320 Chapter one. Forged in the chaos, 7672 06:15:29,520 --> 06:15:35,520 Nvidia was not born from abundance. Its 7673 06:15:32,958 --> 06:15:37,600 DNA was forged in the raw fires of 7674 06:15:35,520 --> 06:15:40,480 survival. 7675 06:15:37,600 --> 06:15:42,878 Jen's son Huang arrived in the United 7676 06:15:40,480 --> 06:15:45,360 States [music] as a young migrant, but 7677 06:15:42,878 --> 06:15:47,680 his destination wasn't an elite prep 7678 06:15:45,360 --> 06:15:50,638 school. Due to a clerical 7679 06:15:47,680 --> 06:15:53,360 misunderstanding by his parents, he was 7680 06:15:50,638 --> 06:15:56,878 sent to Onida Baptist Institute in rural 7681 06:15:53,360 --> 06:15:59,200 Kentucky, a place that at the time 7682 06:15:56,878 --> 06:16:01,280 functioned more as a reform school for 7683 06:15:59,200 --> 06:16:02,798 troubled youths than a traditional 7684 06:16:01,280 --> 06:16:05,920 academy. 7685 06:16:02,798 --> 06:16:08,000 At 9 years old, the future CEO of one of 7686 06:16:05,920 --> 06:16:10,558 the world's most valuable companies 7687 06:16:08,000 --> 06:16:13,920 wasn't coding. He was cleaning the 7688 06:16:10,558 --> 06:16:16,000 toilets of 150 teenagers every single 7689 06:16:13,920 --> 06:16:18,558 afternoon. 7690 06:16:16,000 --> 06:16:20,160 In his personal transcripts, Jensen 7691 06:16:18,558 --> 06:16:23,680 reflects on this with a chilling 7692 06:16:20,160 --> 06:16:26,080 stoicism. I didn't complain. I just 7693 06:16:23,680 --> 06:16:28,000 learned to work hard. 7694 06:16:26,080 --> 06:16:30,718 Bad boy learned the first law of 7695 06:16:28,000 --> 06:16:34,240 accelerated computing decades before it 7696 06:16:30,718 --> 06:16:36,450 existed. For a system to be efficient, 7697 06:16:34,240 --> 06:16:40,080 it must be able to process chaos under 7698 06:16:36,450 --> 06:16:43,120 [music] extreme pressure. 7699 06:16:40,080 --> 06:16:45,520 By 15, Jensen was the most efficient 7700 06:16:43,120 --> 06:16:48,638 dishwasher and waiter at a Denny's in 7701 06:16:45,520 --> 06:16:51,040 Portland. I was incredibly shy, he 7702 06:16:48,638 --> 06:16:54,080 admits. But the chaos of the kitchen 7703 06:16:51,040 --> 06:16:56,558 forced me out of my shell. 7704 06:16:54,080 --> 06:17:00,240 It is no coincidence that Nvidia was 7705 06:16:56,558 --> 06:17:02,878 founded in 1993 inside a booth at that 7706 06:17:00,240 --> 06:17:05,200 very same restaurant chain. 7707 06:17:02,878 --> 06:17:07,890 While the world saw the dawn of the PC 7708 06:17:05,200 --> 06:17:10,240 as an office tool for spreadsheets, 7709 06:17:07,890 --> 06:17:15,520 [music] Jensen, Chris Mahovsky, and 7710 06:17:10,240 --> 06:17:19,760 Curtis Pim saw a fatal weakness. 7711 06:17:15,520 --> 06:17:22,878 In 1993, Intel's generalpurpose CPU was 7712 06:17:19,760 --> 06:17:25,920 hitting a physical wall. If the future 7713 06:17:22,878 --> 06:17:27,920 of computing was visual and immersive, 7714 06:17:25,920 --> 06:17:29,920 the traditional serial architecture 7715 06:17:27,920 --> 06:17:31,680 would become the bottleneck of human 7716 06:17:29,920 --> 06:17:35,120 progress. 7717 06:17:31,680 --> 06:17:38,240 With only $40,000 in startup capital, 7718 06:17:35,120 --> 06:17:40,718 they founded Nvidia to chase a ghost, 7719 06:17:38,240 --> 06:17:42,638 accelerated computing, 7720 06:17:40,718 --> 06:17:45,680 they bet on a market the rest of the 7721 06:17:42,638 --> 06:17:47,520 industry dismissed as a niche for toys, 7722 06:17:45,680 --> 06:17:50,000 video games. 7723 06:17:47,520 --> 06:17:52,878 Before Jensen, video games were the 7724 06:17:50,000 --> 06:17:54,878 ultimate technological flywheel. 7725 06:17:52,878 --> 06:17:57,760 He knew that if you could master the 7726 06:17:54,878 --> 06:17:59,920 massive realtime rendering of pixels, 7727 06:17:57,760 --> 06:18:02,080 you could eventually simulate reality 7728 06:17:59,920 --> 06:18:04,558 itself. 7729 06:18:02,080 --> 06:18:06,798 But before they could reach that glory, 7730 06:18:04,558 --> 06:18:11,480 they had to survive their first massive 7731 06:18:06,798 --> 06:18:11,480 technical abyss, the NV1. 7732 06:18:18,718 --> 06:18:25,360 By 1995, Nvidia's first massive bet, 7733 06:18:22,560 --> 06:18:28,160 [music] the NV1 chip, was ready to 7734 06:18:25,360 --> 06:18:31,600 conquer the market. But Jensen Hang had 7735 06:18:28,160 --> 06:18:33,200 made a catastrophic technical gamble. 7736 06:18:31,600 --> 06:18:36,480 At a time when the industry was 7737 06:18:33,200 --> 06:18:38,878 undecided, he bet on quadratic texture 7738 06:18:36,480 --> 06:18:42,160 mapping, a method that used curved 7739 06:18:38,878 --> 06:18:44,638 surfaces to create 3D images. 7740 06:18:42,160 --> 06:18:48,080 It was mathematically intelligent, but 7741 06:18:44,638 --> 06:18:50,080 it was a lonely path. The industry 7742 06:18:48,080 --> 06:18:51,440 hammer dropped when Microsoft released 7743 06:18:50,080 --> 06:18:54,798 its first DirectX [music] 7744 06:18:51,440 --> 06:18:57,600 API. Microsoft chose triangles, not 7745 06:18:54,798 --> 06:18:59,200 quads, as the universal language for PC 7746 06:18:57,600 --> 06:19:01,040 gaming. 7747 06:18:59,200 --> 06:19:04,558 This decision rendered Nvidia's 7748 06:19:01,040 --> 06:19:07,760 technology instantly obsolete. 7749 06:19:04,558 --> 06:19:11,520 The NV1 wasn't just a failure, it was a 7750 06:19:07,760 --> 06:19:14,320 dead end. The company was bleeding cash. 7751 06:19:11,520 --> 06:19:19,638 And as Jensen famously put it, they were 7752 06:19:14,320 --> 06:19:19,638 staring at exactly 30 days of oxygen. 7753 06:19:20,160 --> 06:19:25,360 Nvidia's only lifeline was a strategic 7754 06:19:22,798 --> 06:19:27,200 contract with the Japanese giant Sega to 7755 06:19:25,360 --> 06:19:30,080 build the graphics engine for the Sega 7756 06:19:27,200 --> 06:19:32,958 Saturn. But Jensen was trapped in a 7757 06:19:30,080 --> 06:19:35,120 moral and business dilemma. 7758 06:19:32,958 --> 06:19:37,760 He knew that if they continued building 7759 06:19:35,120 --> 06:19:39,680 the chip for Sega using Nvidia's flawed 7760 06:19:37,760 --> 06:19:41,600 quad technology, 7761 06:19:39,680 --> 06:19:44,320 Sega would lose the console war to 7762 06:19:41,600 --> 06:19:47,600 Sony's PlayStation and Nvidia would 7763 06:19:44,320 --> 06:19:50,320 eventually perish anyway. In an act of 7764 06:19:47,600 --> 06:19:53,280 intellectual honesty, or as many at the 7765 06:19:50,320 --> 06:19:56,718 time called corporate suicide, Jensen 7766 06:19:53,280 --> 06:20:00,480 flew to Japan. He sat across from Shy 7767 06:19:56,718 --> 06:20:03,840 Chiro Inimiri, the CEO of Sega, and told 7768 06:20:00,480 --> 06:20:06,480 him the brutal truth. Our technology is 7769 06:20:03,840 --> 06:20:08,958 on the wrong path. If we finish this 7770 06:20:06,480 --> 06:20:11,040 project, you will produce an inferior 7771 06:20:08,958 --> 06:20:13,920 product. 7772 06:20:11,040 --> 06:20:16,320 Jensen asked for the impossible. He 7773 06:20:13,920 --> 06:20:18,798 asked Sega to terminate the contract, 7774 06:20:16,320 --> 06:20:21,760 but to pay the remaining $5 million 7775 06:20:18,798 --> 06:20:24,240 anyway. If you don't pay us, Jensen 7776 06:20:21,760 --> 06:20:26,160 pleaded. Nvidia will cease to exist 7777 06:20:24,240 --> 06:20:28,558 tomorrow. 7778 06:20:26,160 --> 06:20:32,080 To the astonishment of the tech world, 7779 06:20:28,558 --> 06:20:34,718 Idlimiri son agreed. He didn't pay for a 7780 06:20:32,080 --> 06:20:37,040 working chip. He paid for Jensen's 7781 06:20:34,718 --> 06:20:40,000 integrity. 7782 06:20:37,040 --> 06:20:42,480 That $5 million was the most expensive 7783 06:20:40,000 --> 06:20:45,360 oxygen in history. 7784 06:20:42,480 --> 06:20:47,680 To make it last, Jensen had to fire half 7785 06:20:45,360 --> 06:20:49,600 of his workforce. These weren't just 7786 06:20:47,680 --> 06:20:52,400 employees. They were friends who had 7787 06:20:49,600 --> 06:20:54,400 shared the Denny's dream. This trauma 7788 06:20:52,400 --> 06:20:57,680 institutionalized a permanent state of 7789 06:20:54,400 --> 06:21:00,480 emergency at Nvidia. 7790 06:20:57,680 --> 06:21:04,160 With the remaining team, Jensen funneled 7791 06:21:00,480 --> 06:21:06,558 every scent [music] into the Reva 128. 7792 06:21:04,160 --> 06:21:09,360 They abandoned quads and embraced 7793 06:21:06,558 --> 06:21:13,840 Microsoft's triangles with a vengeance. 7794 06:21:09,360 --> 06:21:16,878 When it launched in 1997, the Revo 128 7795 06:21:13,840 --> 06:21:18,558 was 400% faster than anything else on 7796 06:21:16,878 --> 06:21:21,760 the market. 7797 06:21:18,558 --> 06:21:23,360 It was a dive catch of epic proportions. 7798 06:21:21,760 --> 06:21:27,680 Nvidia was no longer just a [music] 7799 06:21:23,360 --> 06:21:30,558 survivor. It had become a hunter. 7800 06:21:27,680 --> 06:21:33,920 But as Jensen looked at the horizon, he 7801 06:21:30,558 --> 06:21:38,200 saw 70 rivals waiting to kill him. The 7802 06:21:33,920 --> 06:21:38,200 war was only beginning. 7803 06:21:43,280 --> 06:21:49,200 The success of the Reval 128 was a dive 7804 06:21:46,638 --> 06:21:53,280 catch, but it placed Nvidia in the 7805 06:21:49,200 --> 06:21:55,520 middle of a slaughter house. By 1997, 7806 06:21:53,280 --> 06:21:58,958 there were over 70 companies fighting 7807 06:21:55,520 --> 06:22:00,958 for the soul of the 3D graphics market. 7808 06:21:58,958 --> 06:22:04,160 It was a commodity war where price 7809 06:22:00,958 --> 06:22:06,400 cutting was the only weapon for most. 7810 06:22:04,160 --> 06:22:08,638 Jensen Hang realized that if Nvidia 7811 06:22:06,400 --> 06:22:12,240 played by the industry's rules, they 7812 06:22:08,638 --> 06:22:15,600 would eventually be ground into dust. 7813 06:22:12,240 --> 06:22:17,520 He decided to break the laws of time. 7814 06:22:15,600 --> 06:22:20,878 The industry standard for developing a 7815 06:22:17,520 --> 06:22:24,080 new chip was 18 to 24 months. Following 7816 06:22:20,878 --> 06:22:26,400 the steady beat of Moore's law, Jensen 7817 06:22:24,080 --> 06:22:29,440 gathered his engineers and imposed a 7818 06:22:26,400 --> 06:22:32,080 suicidal mandate. Nvidia would release a 7819 06:22:29,440 --> 06:22:35,840 brand new groundbreaking architecture 7820 06:22:32,080 --> 06:22:37,840 every 6 months. 7821 06:22:35,840 --> 06:22:39,360 It was a strategy of relentless 7822 06:22:37,840 --> 06:22:42,798 execution. 7823 06:22:39,360 --> 06:22:46,000 By the time a competitor like 3dfx or S3 7824 06:22:42,798 --> 06:22:49,040 could react to one Nvidia chip, Jensen 7825 06:22:46,000 --> 06:22:51,200 had already launched two more. This 7826 06:22:49,040 --> 06:22:53,440 forced the competition into a permanent 7827 06:22:51,200 --> 06:22:56,400 state of obsolescence. 7828 06:22:53,440 --> 06:22:58,798 To achieve this, Nvidia had to reinvent 7829 06:22:56,400 --> 06:23:01,360 its internal engineering, running 7830 06:22:58,798 --> 06:23:03,440 multiple design teams in parallel, a 7831 06:23:01,360 --> 06:23:05,360 massive financial risk that pushed the 7832 06:23:03,440 --> 06:23:09,920 company to the edge of its operational 7833 06:23:05,360 --> 06:23:16,000 capacity. In 1999, the war reached its 7834 06:23:09,920 --> 06:23:17,920 climax. Nvidia released the GeForce 256. 7835 06:23:16,000 --> 06:23:20,638 Jensen didn't [music] just market it as 7836 06:23:17,920 --> 06:23:23,520 a faster card. He coined a term that 7837 06:23:20,638 --> 06:23:27,440 would redefine computing history, the 7838 06:23:23,520 --> 06:23:29,440 GPU, graphics processing unit. This 7839 06:23:27,440 --> 06:23:32,558 wasn't just branding. [music] 7840 06:23:29,440 --> 06:23:34,480 Technically, the GeForce 256 7841 06:23:32,558 --> 06:23:36,480 moved the transform and lighting 7842 06:23:34,480 --> 06:23:39,840 calculations, the most heavy 7843 06:23:36,480 --> 06:23:42,718 mathematical lifting of 3D off the CPU 7844 06:23:39,840 --> 06:23:45,200 and onto the chip itself. It was the 7845 06:23:42,718 --> 06:23:47,680 birth of a new era. 7846 06:23:45,200 --> 06:23:49,680 This performance leap was so massive 7847 06:23:47,680 --> 06:23:51,680 that Nvidia secured the prestigious 7848 06:23:49,680 --> 06:23:55,520 contract for the original Microsoft 7849 06:23:51,680 --> 06:23:58,000 Xbox, receiving a crucial $200 million 7850 06:23:55,520 --> 06:24:01,120 advance. 7851 06:23:58,000 --> 06:24:03,600 The 6-month cycle worked. By the early 7852 06:24:01,120 --> 06:24:06,400 2000s, [music] the 70 competitors had 7853 06:24:03,600 --> 06:24:08,080 been reduced to just two, Nvidia and 7854 06:24:06,400 --> 06:24:10,958 ATI. 7855 06:24:08,080 --> 06:24:13,280 In a final act of dominance, Nvidia 7856 06:24:10,958 --> 06:24:17,840 acquired the assets of its former idol 7857 06:24:13,280 --> 06:24:21,040 and arch rival 3dfx in 2000. 7858 06:24:17,840 --> 06:24:24,558 Jensen had cleared the board. He was the 7859 06:24:21,040 --> 06:24:27,200 undisputed king of gaming. But at the 7860 06:24:24,558 --> 06:24:28,958 very moment of his greatest triumph, he 7861 06:24:27,200 --> 06:24:31,680 began to look at the higherformance 7862 06:24:28,958 --> 06:24:34,080 computing market. He realized that the 7863 06:24:31,680 --> 06:24:37,040 GPU's massive parallel math could do 7864 06:24:34,080 --> 06:24:40,080 more than just draw pixels. It could 7865 06:24:37,040 --> 06:24:43,600 solve the world's most complex problems. 7866 06:24:40,080 --> 06:24:47,878 The seeds of CUDA and the $10 billion 7867 06:24:43,600 --> 06:24:47,878 gamble were being planted. 7868 06:24:53,200 --> 06:25:00,000 By 2006, Nvidia was the undisputed king 7869 06:24:56,878 --> 06:25:02,116 of the gaming world. But Jensen Huang 7870 06:25:00,000 --> 06:25:04,000 was restless. He realized that the 7871 06:25:02,116 --> 06:25:05,920 [music] same parallel processing power 7872 06:25:04,000 --> 06:25:08,010 that rendered pixels for World of 7873 06:25:05,920 --> 06:25:09,280 Warcraft could be used to solve the 7874 06:25:08,010 --> 06:25:11,760 [music] world's most complex 7875 06:25:09,280 --> 06:25:14,400 mathematical problems. 7876 06:25:11,760 --> 06:25:17,440 He launched [music] CUDA, compute 7877 06:25:14,400 --> 06:25:19,040 unified device architecture. It was a 7878 06:25:17,440 --> 06:25:21,600 declaration [music] of war against the 7879 06:25:19,040 --> 06:25:24,480 CPUcentric world. 7880 06:25:21,600 --> 06:25:27,040 The goal was simple yet insane. 7881 06:25:24,480 --> 06:25:30,160 Transform [music] every NVIDIA GPU into 7882 06:25:27,040 --> 06:25:31,680 a generalpurpose supercomput. 7883 06:25:30,160 --> 06:25:35,200 But this decision [music] came with a 7884 06:25:31,680 --> 06:25:38,240 staggering cost. Jensen mandated that 7885 06:25:35,200 --> 06:25:40,558 every single GPU Nvidia manufactured 7886 06:25:38,240 --> 06:25:42,718 from the high-end workstation cards to 7887 06:25:40,558 --> 06:25:44,798 the cheapest laptop [music] chips must 7888 06:25:42,718 --> 06:25:48,240 include the extra transistors and 7889 06:25:44,798 --> 06:25:51,840 hardware logic to support CUDA. 7890 06:25:48,240 --> 06:25:54,000 Wall Street was [music] horrified. 7891 06:25:51,840 --> 06:25:57,120 For nearly a decade, Nvidia [music] 7892 06:25:54,000 --> 06:26:00,400 spent billions, estimated at over 10 7893 06:25:57,120 --> 06:26:02,376 billion dollars in cumulative R&D on a 7894 06:26:00,400 --> 06:26:05,360 software platform that almost no one was 7895 06:26:02,376 --> 06:26:07,440 [music] using. Profit margins, which 7896 06:26:05,360 --> 06:26:10,958 once sat comfortably high, were 7897 06:26:07,440 --> 06:26:13,280 sacrificed at the altar of this vision. 7898 06:26:10,958 --> 06:26:16,480 Analysts mocked the [music] strategy, 7899 06:26:13,280 --> 06:26:19,600 calling it the bridge to nowhere. During 7900 06:26:16,480 --> 06:26:21,440 the 2008 financial crisis, Nvidia's 7901 06:26:19,600 --> 06:26:23,760 market cap plummeted [music] and the 7902 06:26:21,440 --> 06:26:26,000 company was once again staring into the 7903 06:26:23,760 --> 06:26:27,680 abyss. 7904 06:26:26,000 --> 06:26:30,000 But Jensen wasn't just building 7905 06:26:27,680 --> 06:26:33,360 hardware. He was building [music] a 7906 06:26:30,000 --> 06:26:35,760 software moat. He sent Nvidia engineers 7907 06:26:33,360 --> 06:26:37,120 to universities around the world, 7908 06:26:35,760 --> 06:26:40,400 helping [music] professors teach 7909 06:26:37,120 --> 06:26:42,958 parallel programming using CUDA. 7910 06:26:40,400 --> 06:26:45,200 He was seeding the ground. While 7911 06:26:42,958 --> 06:26:48,400 competitors like [music] Intel and AMD 7912 06:26:45,200 --> 06:26:51,120 focused on making faster chips, Jensen 7913 06:26:48,400 --> 06:26:53,520 was building [music] an entire language. 7914 06:26:51,120 --> 06:26:56,000 By the time a developer learned CUDA, 7915 06:26:53,520 --> 06:26:58,080 they were locked in. Switching to a 7916 06:26:56,000 --> 06:27:00,478 competitor wouldn't just mean buying a 7917 06:26:58,080 --> 06:27:03,920 new chip. It would mean rewriting 7918 06:27:00,478 --> 06:27:07,040 millions of lines of code. 7919 06:27:03,920 --> 06:27:09,680 Year after year, Jensen defended CUDA in 7920 06:27:07,040 --> 06:27:11,760 boardrooms and earning calls. He 7921 06:27:09,680 --> 06:27:13,760 practiced what he calls long-term 7922 06:27:11,760 --> 06:27:16,798 commitment to [music] a vision, even 7923 06:27:13,760 --> 06:27:18,558 when the data didn't yet support it. He 7924 06:27:16,798 --> 06:27:20,798 was waiting for a killer app for 7925 06:27:18,558 --> 06:27:23,200 accelerated computing. 7926 06:27:20,798 --> 06:27:24,478 He didn't know what it would be. But he 7927 06:27:23,200 --> 06:27:27,120 knew that as data grew [music] 7928 06:27:24,478 --> 06:27:30,160 exponentially, the serial processing of 7929 06:27:27,120 --> 06:27:32,558 the CPU would eventually fail. 7930 06:27:30,160 --> 06:27:34,400 The silence of the Cuda winter was about 7931 06:27:32,558 --> 06:27:36,042 to be broken. 7932 06:27:34,400 --> 06:27:37,120 In a lab at the University of Toronto, 7933 06:27:36,042 --> 06:27:40,320 [music] 7934 06:27:37,120 --> 06:27:42,320 a PhD student named Alex Kreski was 7935 06:27:40,320 --> 06:27:46,080 about to feed a neural network called 7936 06:27:42,320 --> 06:27:48,478 Alexet into those Nvidia GPUs. 7937 06:27:46,080 --> 06:27:51,600 The big bang of artificial intelligence 7938 06:27:48,478 --> 06:27:54,000 was seconds away, and Jensen Huang was 7939 06:27:51,600 --> 06:27:58,440 the only person on Earth who had already 7940 06:27:54,000 --> 06:27:58,440 built the engine to [music] power it. 7941 06:28:03,920 --> 06:28:09,680 The year was 2012. While the world saw 7942 06:28:07,280 --> 06:28:11,920 just another academic competition, 7943 06:28:09,680 --> 06:28:14,558 Jensen Hang saw the spark that would 7944 06:28:11,920 --> 06:28:17,840 ignite a global revolution. 7945 06:28:14,558 --> 06:28:21,200 A neural network called AlexNet, powered 7946 06:28:17,840 --> 06:28:24,478 by NVIDIA GPUs, crushed the competition 7947 06:28:21,200 --> 06:28:27,040 in image recognition. It was the big 7948 06:28:24,478 --> 06:28:29,280 bang of deep learning. 7949 06:28:27,040 --> 06:28:32,558 Jinsen didn't just [music] celebrate, he 7950 06:28:29,280 --> 06:28:35,680 pivoted the entire company. He realized 7951 06:28:32,558 --> 06:28:37,520 that the $10 billion gamble on CUDA had 7952 06:28:35,680 --> 06:28:40,320 finally found [music] its soul, 7953 06:28:37,520 --> 06:28:42,240 artificial intelligence. 7954 06:28:40,320 --> 06:28:44,878 This pivot transformed [music] Nvidia 7955 06:28:42,240 --> 06:28:46,958 from a graphics card company into the 7956 06:28:44,878 --> 06:28:50,000 foundational engine of the world's most 7957 06:28:46,958 --> 06:28:51,840 powerful data centers. 7958 06:28:50,000 --> 06:28:53,280 Jensen's vision was no longer about 7959 06:28:51,840 --> 06:28:56,478 drawing pixels. [music] 7960 06:28:53,280 --> 06:28:58,878 It was about generative AI. 7961 06:28:56,478 --> 06:29:00,798 By the time Chat [music] GPT launched in 7962 06:28:58,878 --> 06:29:02,504 late 2022, 7963 06:29:00,798 --> 06:29:03,520 Nvidia didn't just have a head start. 7964 06:29:02,504 --> 06:29:05,280 [music] 7965 06:29:03,520 --> 06:29:08,280 They were the only ones at the starting 7966 06:29:05,280 --> 06:29:08,280 line. 7967 06:29:08,320 --> 06:29:12,400 Jensen [music] acted with a speed that 7968 06:29:10,000 --> 06:29:15,040 terrified his competitors. He didn't 7969 06:29:12,400 --> 06:29:17,840 just wait for orders. He re-engineered 7970 06:29:15,040 --> 06:29:20,798 Nvidia's entire road map. 7971 06:29:17,840 --> 06:29:23,520 In 2016, he personally delivered the 7972 06:29:20,798 --> 06:29:26,320 first [music] Nvidia DGX1, 7973 06:29:23,520 --> 06:29:29,120 the world's first AI supercomput in a 7974 06:29:26,320 --> 06:29:32,400 box to a then small nonprofit called 7975 06:29:29,120 --> 06:29:36,760 Open AAI. He was very [music] clear, 7976 06:29:32,400 --> 06:29:36,760 this will change the world. 7977 06:29:37,440 --> 06:29:40,798 Technically, this period was about 7978 06:29:39,280 --> 06:29:43,200 specialization. [music] 7979 06:29:40,798 --> 06:29:45,078 Nvidia began adding tensor cores to its 7980 06:29:43,200 --> 06:29:45,760 chips. These weren't for graphics. 7981 06:29:45,078 --> 06:29:47,440 [music] 7982 06:29:45,760 --> 06:29:49,600 They were designed specifically for the 7983 06:29:47,440 --> 06:29:51,360 deep learning math that powers neural 7984 06:29:49,600 --> 06:29:53,280 networks. [music] 7985 06:29:51,360 --> 06:29:55,840 Nvidia was no longer just making a 7986 06:29:53,280 --> 06:29:58,000 faster graphics card. It was building a 7987 06:29:55,840 --> 06:30:00,400 specialized brain. 7988 06:29:58,000 --> 06:30:02,000 By 2017, the momentum [music] was 7989 06:30:00,400 --> 06:30:04,320 unstoppable. 7990 06:30:02,000 --> 06:30:06,478 Every major tech giant was building AI 7991 06:30:04,320 --> 06:30:07,280 labs and they all had one thing in 7992 06:30:06,478 --> 06:30:10,478 common. [music] 7993 06:30:07,280 --> 06:30:12,638 They were built on Nvidia's stack. 7994 06:30:10,478 --> 06:30:15,280 This was the era when the software mode 7995 06:30:12,638 --> 06:30:16,718 became a fortress. Thousands of 7996 06:30:15,280 --> 06:30:20,000 researchers were now writing their 7997 06:30:16,718 --> 06:30:21,920 doctoral thesis on [music] CUDA. 7998 06:30:20,000 --> 06:30:23,760 If a competitor wanted to challenge 7999 06:30:21,920 --> 06:30:26,240 Nvidia, they wouldn't just need [music] 8000 06:30:23,760 --> 06:30:28,878 a better chip. They would have to 8001 06:30:26,240 --> 06:30:30,320 convince the world's brightest minds to 8002 06:30:28,878 --> 06:30:32,320 forget everything [music] they had 8003 06:30:30,320 --> 06:30:35,040 learned. 8004 06:30:32,320 --> 06:30:38,240 But as the AI revolution took hold, an 8005 06:30:35,040 --> 06:30:40,718 unexpected shadow emerged. A new craze 8006 06:30:38,240 --> 06:30:43,360 called Bitcoin and Ethereum began to 8007 06:30:40,718 --> 06:30:45,994 consume [music] Nvidia's supply. 8008 06:30:43,360 --> 06:30:49,600 To the world, Nvidia looked invincible, 8009 06:30:45,994 --> 06:30:51,760 [music] but internally Jensen was wary. 8010 06:30:49,600 --> 06:30:53,280 Jensen knew that every bubble eventually 8011 06:30:51,760 --> 06:30:55,680 bursts. 8012 06:30:53,280 --> 06:30:58,000 This period of explosive accidental 8013 06:30:55,680 --> 06:31:01,120 growth from crypto miners was creating a 8014 06:30:58,000 --> 06:31:02,320 shadow over the company's true mission, 8015 06:31:01,120 --> 06:31:04,718 setting the stage [music] for a 8016 06:31:02,320 --> 06:31:07,200 highstakes legal battle over corporate 8017 06:31:04,718 --> 06:31:09,120 transparency and a financial storm that 8018 06:31:07,200 --> 06:31:12,120 would test the very foundations of his 8019 06:31:09,120 --> 06:31:12,120 leadership. 8020 06:31:15,840 --> 06:31:20,878 In 2018, Nvidia was [music] riding a 8021 06:31:18,798 --> 06:31:24,080 wave that looked like a miracle, but 8022 06:31:20,878 --> 06:31:26,080 felt like a mirage. The explosion of 8023 06:31:24,080 --> 06:31:29,680 cryptocurrency mining had created an 8024 06:31:26,080 --> 06:31:32,320 insatiable hunger for GeForce cards. 8025 06:31:29,680 --> 06:31:35,122 To the outside world, Nvidia's revenue 8026 06:31:32,320 --> 06:31:37,520 was reaching historic heights. However, 8027 06:31:35,122 --> 06:31:40,400 [music] beneath the surface, a dangerous 8028 06:31:37,520 --> 06:31:42,400 ambiguity was growing. Jensen Huang 8029 06:31:40,400 --> 06:31:45,120 insisted that the growth was driven by a 8030 06:31:42,400 --> 06:31:48,220 gaming renaissance, but the reality was 8031 06:31:45,120 --> 06:31:48,798 more volatile. The mirage evaporated 8032 06:31:48,220 --> 06:31:51,120 [music] 8033 06:31:48,798 --> 06:31:53,460 in late 2018. 8034 06:31:51,120 --> 06:31:55,520 The crypto winter arrived and the 8035 06:31:53,460 --> 06:31:57,440 [music] demand for mining chips vanished 8036 06:31:55,520 --> 06:31:59,356 overnight. 8037 06:31:57,440 --> 06:32:01,200 Nvidia was left with a massive surplus 8038 06:31:59,356 --> 06:32:03,920 [music] of inventory and the market's 8039 06:32:01,200 --> 06:32:06,478 reaction was brutal. The company's stock 8040 06:32:03,920 --> 06:32:08,558 price [music] plummeted by 28% in a 8041 06:32:06,478 --> 06:32:11,120 single day. 8042 06:32:08,558 --> 06:32:15,120 The invincible architect of AI was 8043 06:32:11,120 --> 06:32:16,878 suddenly facing a crisis of credibility. 8044 06:32:15,120 --> 06:32:18,638 This financial collapse ignited a 8045 06:32:16,878 --> 06:32:20,478 highstakes legal battle that would 8046 06:32:18,638 --> 06:32:22,478 eventually reach the steps of the US 8047 06:32:20,478 --> 06:32:24,798 Supreme Court. 8048 06:32:22,478 --> 06:32:27,280 A group of institutional investors filed 8049 06:32:24,798 --> 06:32:29,040 a class action lawsuit alleging that 8050 06:32:27,280 --> 06:32:31,840 Jensen [music] Hang had deliberately 8051 06:32:29,040 --> 06:32:34,070 misled the market. The core of the case 8052 06:32:31,840 --> 06:32:35,440 rested on a single devastating word, 8053 06:32:34,070 --> 06:32:36,958 [music] 8054 06:32:35,440 --> 06:32:39,360 ci 8055 06:32:36,958 --> 06:32:41,360 intent to deceive. 8056 06:32:39,360 --> 06:32:43,360 The accusation [music] was sharp. 8057 06:32:41,360 --> 06:32:45,600 Investors claimed that internal Nvidia 8058 06:32:43,360 --> 06:32:47,360 reports clearly showed over a billion 8059 06:32:45,600 --> 06:32:49,840 dollars in revenue attributed to [music] 8060 06:32:47,360 --> 06:32:51,360 gamers was actually coming from crypto 8061 06:32:49,840 --> 06:32:53,600 miners. 8062 06:32:51,360 --> 06:32:55,840 Jensen fought back, defending his 8063 06:32:53,600 --> 06:32:57,920 intellectual honesty and arguing that 8064 06:32:55,840 --> 06:32:58,878 the expert opinions used against him 8065 06:32:57,920 --> 06:33:00,958 were nothing [music] more than 8066 06:32:58,878 --> 06:33:03,360 speculation. 8067 06:33:00,958 --> 06:33:05,512 This battle known as petition number 8068 06:33:03,360 --> 06:33:07,280 23-970 8069 06:33:05,512 --> 06:33:09,840 [music] became a landmark moment for 8070 06:33:07,280 --> 06:33:12,478 Silicon Valley, questioning how much a 8071 06:33:09,840 --> 06:33:14,400 CEO must disclose when their technology 8072 06:33:12,478 --> 06:33:17,520 accidentally conquers a market they 8073 06:33:14,400 --> 06:33:19,920 didn't intend to lead. 8074 06:33:17,520 --> 06:33:21,760 While lawyers argued in Washington, 8075 06:33:19,920 --> 06:33:24,558 Jensen was already looking past the 8076 06:33:21,760 --> 06:33:26,240 wreckage. He didn't let the legal storm 8077 06:33:24,558 --> 06:33:29,200 or the inventory crisis [music] slowed 8078 06:33:26,240 --> 06:33:31,680 down his ultimate plan. He doubled down 8079 06:33:29,200 --> 06:33:34,320 on the data center, acquiring Melanox 8080 06:33:31,680 --> 06:33:36,478 for $7 billion to control the highways 8081 06:33:34,320 --> 06:33:38,478 between his chips. [music] 8082 06:33:36,478 --> 06:33:41,040 He was preparing for a world where AI 8083 06:33:38,478 --> 06:33:42,558 wouldn't just be a research project, but 8084 06:33:41,040 --> 06:33:44,718 the operating system of [music] the 8085 06:33:42,558 --> 06:33:47,432 entire planet. 8086 06:33:44,718 --> 06:33:49,440 The storm of 2018 had been a warning. 8087 06:33:47,432 --> 06:33:53,638 [music] The era of generative AI was 8088 06:33:49,440 --> 06:33:53,638 about to provide the answer. 8089 06:33:57,440 --> 06:34:02,240 By 2022, 8090 06:33:59,360 --> 06:34:04,478 the world had changed. The launch of 8091 06:34:02,240 --> 06:34:06,958 Chad GPT signaled the arrival of the 8092 06:34:04,478 --> 06:34:09,040 generative AI [music] era, and Nvidia 8093 06:34:06,958 --> 06:34:10,638 was the only company prepared to power 8094 06:34:09,040 --> 06:34:12,558 it. 8095 06:34:10,638 --> 06:34:15,360 But as Jensen Huang [music] stood on the 8096 06:34:12,558 --> 06:34:18,718 brink of total market dominance, a new 8097 06:34:15,360 --> 06:34:21,492 wall was built, not by a competitor, but 8098 06:34:18,718 --> 06:34:23,280 by the US government. Washington imposed 8099 06:34:21,492 --> 06:34:26,558 [music] strict export controls on 8100 06:34:23,280 --> 06:34:29,600 high-end AI chips. For Nvidia, the 8101 06:34:26,558 --> 06:34:31,440 stakes were astronomical. 8102 06:34:29,600 --> 06:34:33,938 According to the geographical revenue 8103 06:34:31,440 --> 06:34:37,360 data, China accounted for approximately 8104 06:34:33,938 --> 06:34:39,520 [music] 20% to 25% of the company's 8105 06:34:37,360 --> 06:34:41,360 total business. 8106 06:34:39,520 --> 06:34:43,760 Overnight, [music] Jensen had to 8107 06:34:41,360 --> 06:34:46,000 navigate a geopolitical minefield, 8108 06:34:43,760 --> 06:34:48,080 redesigning chips specifically to comply 8109 06:34:46,000 --> 06:34:50,240 with regulations while trying to keep 8110 06:34:48,080 --> 06:34:52,478 his most important market from slipping 8111 06:34:50,240 --> 06:34:54,718 away. 8112 06:34:52,478 --> 06:34:56,718 Jensen's answer to the geopolitical and 8113 06:34:54,718 --> 06:35:00,638 technical pressure was the Blackwall 8114 06:34:56,718 --> 06:35:03,760 architecture. If the H100 was a spark, 8115 06:35:00,638 --> 06:35:07,200 Blackwell was a sun. Packing an 8116 06:35:03,760 --> 06:35:09,120 incredible 208 billion transistors, it 8117 06:35:07,200 --> 06:35:12,958 delivered up to 30 times the performance 8118 06:35:09,120 --> 06:35:14,798 of its predecessor for certain AI tasks. 8119 06:35:12,958 --> 06:35:17,600 But Blackwell represented a deeper 8120 06:35:14,798 --> 06:35:20,558 strategic shift. Nvidia was no longer 8121 06:35:17,600 --> 06:35:23,440 just a chipmaker. 8122 06:35:20,558 --> 06:35:25,040 Jensen was now building entire AI 8123 06:35:23,440 --> 06:35:27,200 factories. [music] 8124 06:35:25,040 --> 06:35:29,600 By integrating Melanox's networking 8125 06:35:27,200 --> 06:35:31,600 technology, he controlled the highways 8126 06:35:29,600 --> 06:35:33,600 that allowed thousands of chips to talk 8127 06:35:31,600 --> 06:35:36,160 to each other as if they were a single 8128 06:35:33,600 --> 06:35:38,478 giant brain. 8129 06:35:36,160 --> 06:35:40,400 This system on a cluster approach meant 8130 06:35:38,478 --> 06:35:42,798 that even if a competitor produced a 8131 06:35:40,400 --> 06:35:44,478 faster individual chip, they couldn't 8132 06:35:42,798 --> 06:35:47,520 compete with the sheer efficiency of the 8133 06:35:44,478 --> 06:35:50,160 Nvidia ecosystem. 8134 06:35:47,520 --> 06:35:53,360 The financial results were staggering. 8135 06:35:50,160 --> 06:35:57,680 By early 2024, Nvidia's data center 8136 06:35:53,360 --> 06:35:59,200 revenue had surged to over 47 billion, a 8137 06:35:57,680 --> 06:36:02,000 217% 8138 06:35:59,200 --> 06:36:04,878 increase in [music] a single year. The 8139 06:36:02,000 --> 06:36:07,120 company was operating with 78.4% 8140 06:36:04,878 --> 06:36:09,600 gross [music] margins, profit levels 8141 06:36:07,120 --> 06:36:12,400 usually reserved for software giants, 8142 06:36:09,600 --> 06:36:16,160 not hardware manufacturers. 8143 06:36:12,400 --> 06:36:19,440 On June 18th, 2024, Nvidia became the 8144 06:36:16,160 --> 06:36:22,320 most valuable company on the planet. 8145 06:36:19,440 --> 06:36:25,520 Yet, even as he stood at the summit, 8146 06:36:22,320 --> 06:36:28,320 Jensen refused to relax. He looked the 8147 06:36:25,520 --> 06:36:31,040 60-year history of semiconductors, the 8148 06:36:28,320 --> 06:36:33,680 rise and fall of Intel, the cycles of 8149 06:36:31,040 --> 06:36:35,840 Samsung and TI, and he knew that being 8150 06:36:33,680 --> 06:36:39,280 on top was the most dangerous place to 8151 06:36:35,840 --> 06:36:42,558 be. His next challenge wouldn't just be 8152 06:36:39,280 --> 06:36:46,280 about chips. It would be about giving AI 8153 06:36:42,558 --> 06:36:46,280 a physical body. 8154 06:36:50,000 --> 06:36:55,200 In 2024, Jensen Huang had already 8155 06:36:52,958 --> 06:36:57,520 conquered the digital world, but his 8156 06:36:55,200 --> 06:37:00,240 eyes were fixed on a new frontier, the 8157 06:36:57,520 --> 06:37:03,120 physical one. He declared that the next 8158 06:37:00,240 --> 06:37:04,878 wave of AI would be physical AI. 8159 06:37:03,120 --> 06:37:07,920 Intelligence that doesn't just process 8160 06:37:04,878 --> 06:37:09,840 text or images, but understands the laws 8161 06:37:07,920 --> 06:37:12,080 of physics. 8162 06:37:09,840 --> 06:37:15,120 Everything that moves from autonomous 8163 06:37:12,080 --> 06:37:18,240 cars to humanoid robots would eventually 8164 06:37:15,120 --> 06:37:20,638 be powered by an Nvidia brain. 8165 06:37:18,240 --> 06:37:23,584 This identifies it as the third pillar 8166 06:37:20,638 --> 06:37:24,320 of Nvidia's future. To win this race, 8167 06:37:23,584 --> 06:37:27,360 [music] 8168 06:37:24,320 --> 06:37:29,440 Jensen isn't just building chips. He is 8169 06:37:27,360 --> 06:37:31,600 building the omniverse. 8170 06:37:29,440 --> 06:37:33,410 This is a digital world where robots are 8171 06:37:31,600 --> 06:37:36,080 trained millions of times in a virtual 8172 06:37:33,410 --> 06:37:38,718 [music] simulation before they ever step 8173 06:37:36,080 --> 06:37:41,520 into a real factory. 8174 06:37:38,718 --> 06:37:42,958 By the time a robot starts its job, it 8175 06:37:41,520 --> 06:37:45,680 has already [music] lived a thousand 8176 06:37:42,958 --> 06:37:47,680 lifetimes of experience. Jensen's 8177 06:37:45,680 --> 06:37:50,478 strategy is a total vertical 8178 06:37:47,680 --> 06:37:53,680 integration. He is transforming Nvidia 8179 06:37:50,478 --> 06:37:55,840 into a provider of AI factories. [music] 8180 06:37:53,680 --> 06:37:58,320 He believes that in the future, every 8181 06:37:55,840 --> 06:38:00,558 company will have two factories, one 8182 06:37:58,320 --> 06:38:03,680 that produces physical goods and a 8183 06:38:00,558 --> 06:38:05,760 digital one that produces intelligence. 8184 06:38:03,680 --> 06:38:07,840 With the Melanox networking, high-speed 8185 06:38:05,760 --> 06:38:10,320 highways, [music] and the CUDA software 8186 06:38:07,840 --> 06:38:12,160 fortress, Jensen has ensured that the 8187 06:38:10,320 --> 06:38:14,400 entire infrastructure of this new 8188 06:38:12,160 --> 06:38:17,760 industrial revolution [music] runs on 8189 06:38:14,400 --> 06:38:20,080 Nvidia. When asked about his legacy, 8190 06:38:17,760 --> 06:38:23,200 Jensen doesn't talk about stock prices 8191 06:38:20,080 --> 06:38:25,520 or trillions of dollars. He talks about 8192 06:38:23,200 --> 06:38:27,120 material sciences [music] and scientific 8193 06:38:25,520 --> 06:38:29,200 discovery. 8194 06:38:27,120 --> 06:38:31,440 He believes AI will give humans 8195 06:38:29,200 --> 06:38:34,000 superpowers, helping us [music] solve 8196 06:38:31,440 --> 06:38:36,240 climate change, cure diseases, and 8197 06:38:34,000 --> 06:38:38,320 handle the dangerous and mundane tasks 8198 06:38:36,240 --> 06:38:42,840 so we can focus on what truly [music] 8199 06:38:38,320 --> 06:38:42,840 makes us human, curiosity. 8200 06:38:45,440 --> 06:38:49,760 By 2025, 8201 06:38:47,360 --> 06:38:51,520 the world had entered a state of compute 8202 06:38:49,760 --> 06:38:54,718 geopolitics. 8203 06:38:51,520 --> 06:38:57,280 Nvidia was no longer just a company. It 8204 06:38:54,718 --> 06:39:00,400 had become a strategic resource similar 8205 06:38:57,280 --> 06:39:04,000 to oil or grain. The launch of the 8206 06:39:00,400 --> 06:39:06,878 Blackwell B200 hadn't just met demand. 8207 06:39:04,000 --> 06:39:10,400 It had ignited a global scramble. 8208 06:39:06,878 --> 06:39:13,200 Nations like Japan, France, and the UAE 8209 06:39:10,400 --> 06:39:14,798 began building sovereign AI clouds. 8210 06:39:13,200 --> 06:39:17,200 Realizing that depending on a few 8211 06:39:14,798 --> 06:39:20,240 Silicon Valley giants for intelligence 8212 06:39:17,200 --> 06:39:23,520 was a national security risk. 8213 06:39:20,240 --> 06:39:27,280 But as 2025 progressed, a new whisper 8214 06:39:23,520 --> 06:39:30,240 began to haunt the industry. The wall. 8215 06:39:27,280 --> 06:39:33,040 For years, AI progress relied on scaling 8216 06:39:30,240 --> 06:39:35,360 laws. The idea that more data and more 8217 06:39:33,040 --> 06:39:39,280 GPUs would inevitably lead to more 8218 06:39:35,360 --> 06:39:42,000 intelligence. However, in 2026, the 8219 06:39:39,280 --> 06:39:44,638 returns are starting to diminish. Data 8220 06:39:42,000 --> 06:39:46,638 centers are becoming so massive, they 8221 06:39:44,638 --> 06:39:49,040 require their own dedicated nuclear 8222 06:39:46,638 --> 06:39:50,558 power plants. and the lowhanging fruit 8223 06:39:49,040 --> 06:39:52,558 of internet data has [music] been 8224 06:39:50,558 --> 06:39:54,798 exhausted. 8225 06:39:52,558 --> 06:39:57,440 Jensen's response to the wall is 8226 06:39:54,798 --> 06:39:59,600 typically defiant. He pivoted the 8227 06:39:57,440 --> 06:40:03,440 industry towards synthetic data and 8228 06:39:59,600 --> 06:40:06,000 reasoning models. In 2026, Nvidia's 8229 06:40:03,440 --> 06:40:10,240 focus has shifted from simply training 8230 06:40:06,000 --> 06:40:12,558 AI to inference at scale. The goal is no 8231 06:40:10,240 --> 06:40:14,958 longer just to build a model that knows 8232 06:40:12,558 --> 06:40:16,478 everything, but to build a system that 8233 06:40:14,958 --> 06:40:18,958 thinks [music] through a problem for 8234 06:40:16,478 --> 06:40:21,040 days, if necessary, using massive 8235 06:40:18,958 --> 06:40:23,360 clusters of GPUs to reach a 8236 06:40:21,040 --> 06:40:26,558 breakthrough. 8237 06:40:23,360 --> 06:40:27,640 The competition in 2026 has never been 8238 06:40:26,558 --> 06:40:27,760 fiercer. 8239 06:40:27,640 --> 06:40:30,558 >> [music] 8240 06:40:27,760 --> 06:40:32,718 >> Nvidia's biggest customers, Amazon, 8241 06:40:30,558 --> 06:40:35,280 Google, and Microsoft, have become its 8242 06:40:32,718 --> 06:40:38,000 most dangerous rivals, pouring billions 8243 06:40:35,280 --> 06:40:41,920 into their own custom AI chips to escape 8244 06:40:38,000 --> 06:40:44,558 the NVIDIA tax. Yet, the software mode 8245 06:40:41,920 --> 06:40:47,040 remains unreached. While others build 8246 06:40:44,558 --> 06:40:49,600 chips, Jensen is building the entire 8247 06:40:47,040 --> 06:40:51,520 ecosystem, the networking, the 8248 06:40:49,600 --> 06:40:53,760 libraries, and [music] the pre-trained 8249 06:40:51,520 --> 06:40:56,558 models that make a competitor's hardware 8250 06:40:53,760 --> 06:40:58,558 feel like a relic before it even leaves 8251 06:40:56,558 --> 06:41:01,360 the factory. 8252 06:40:58,558 --> 06:41:02,958 In this era, Jensen Hang has become one 8253 06:41:01,360 --> 06:41:05,840 of the world's most influential 8254 06:41:02,958 --> 06:41:08,080 diplomat. He navigates a world where the 8255 06:41:05,840 --> 06:41:10,000 power grid is the new bottleneck and 8256 06:41:08,080 --> 06:41:11,840 where a single shipment of chips can 8257 06:41:10,000 --> 06:41:13,600 determine the economic future of a 8258 06:41:11,840 --> 06:41:16,400 country. 8259 06:41:13,600 --> 06:41:19,600 The trillion dollar question of 2026 is 8260 06:41:16,400 --> 06:41:21,680 no longer if AI will change the world, 8261 06:41:19,600 --> 06:41:24,920 but who will own the infrastructure of 8262 06:41:21,680 --> 06:41:24,920 that change. 8263 06:41:28,320 --> 06:41:32,798 The story of Nvidia is often told as a 8264 06:41:30,718 --> 06:41:35,200 series of lucky breaks or inevitable 8265 06:41:32,798 --> 06:41:38,080 triumphs. [music] But as we look at the 8266 06:41:35,200 --> 06:41:40,798 empire Jensen Hang has built, the 8267 06:41:38,080 --> 06:41:43,040 reality is far more deliberate and far 8268 06:41:40,798 --> 06:41:46,000 more precarious. [music] 8269 06:41:43,040 --> 06:41:47,552 In 2026, the company stands at the 8270 06:41:46,000 --> 06:41:50,000 center of the greatest industrial shift 8271 06:41:47,552 --> 06:41:52,878 [music] in human history. 8272 06:41:50,000 --> 06:41:55,520 Yet for Jensen, the valuation of three, 8273 06:41:52,878 --> 06:41:58,400 four, or 5 trillion is a lagging 8274 06:41:55,520 --> 06:42:00,080 indicator. The true metric is the 8275 06:41:58,400 --> 06:42:02,080 oxygen. 8276 06:42:00,080 --> 06:42:03,920 Throughout his journey, from the dish 8277 06:42:02,080 --> 06:42:06,638 pits of Denny's to the halls of the 8278 06:42:03,920 --> 06:42:08,240 Supreme Court, Jensen has maintained a 8279 06:42:06,638 --> 06:42:09,920 philosophy of intellectual [music] 8280 06:42:08,240 --> 06:42:12,558 honesty. 8281 06:42:09,920 --> 06:42:14,000 He admits when the technology is wrong. 8282 06:42:12,558 --> 06:42:16,718 He pivots when the market [music] 8283 06:42:14,000 --> 06:42:19,360 shifts. And he invests billions when the 8284 06:42:16,718 --> 06:42:21,520 world calls him a fall. He [music] has 8285 06:42:19,360 --> 06:42:24,160 turned a semiconductor company into a 8286 06:42:21,520 --> 06:42:27,280 geopolitical superpower, a software 8287 06:42:24,160 --> 06:42:29,600 fortress, and the primary architect of a 8288 06:42:27,280 --> 06:42:31,280 new form of life. 8289 06:42:29,600 --> 06:42:33,440 Critics ask if Nvidia [music] is a 8290 06:42:31,280 --> 06:42:35,680 bubble waiting to burst, or if the 8291 06:42:33,440 --> 06:42:38,160 scaling laws of AI will eventually hit a 8292 06:42:35,680 --> 06:42:39,840 dead end. But Jensen doesn't [music] 8293 06:42:38,160 --> 06:42:42,638 operate on the timeline of a stock 8294 06:42:39,840 --> 06:42:45,440 market cycle. He operates on the 8295 06:42:42,638 --> 06:42:48,000 timeline of human evolution. 8296 06:42:45,440 --> 06:42:49,680 He isn't just selling [music] chips. He 8297 06:42:48,000 --> 06:42:52,400 is selling the marginal cost of 8298 06:42:49,680 --> 06:42:54,364 intelligence, making the most valuable 8299 06:42:52,400 --> 06:42:55,040 resource in the universe so abundant 8300 06:42:54,364 --> 06:42:58,000 [music] 8301 06:42:55,040 --> 06:43:00,478 that it changes the very definition of 8302 06:42:58,000 --> 06:43:02,638 what is possible. 8303 06:43:00,478 --> 06:43:04,558 Jensen often says that he wakes up every 8304 06:43:02,638 --> 06:43:06,160 morning with the same feeling he had in 8305 06:43:04,558 --> 06:43:07,760 1993. 8306 06:43:06,160 --> 06:43:09,840 the feeling that the company is [music] 8307 06:43:07,760 --> 06:43:12,240 going out of business. 8308 06:43:09,840 --> 06:43:14,000 It is this productive paranoia that 8309 06:43:12,240 --> 06:43:16,878 prevents the cyclical [music] trap that 8310 06:43:14,000 --> 06:43:18,478 claim the giants of the past. 8311 06:43:16,878 --> 06:43:19,680 He doesn't want to be the king of a 8312 06:43:18,478 --> 06:43:22,240 legacy. [music] 8313 06:43:19,680 --> 06:43:27,280 He wants to be the architect of a future 8314 06:43:22,240 --> 06:43:30,478 that hasn't even been imagined yet. 8315 06:43:27,280 --> 06:43:32,878 Run, don't walk. Either you are [music] 8316 06:43:30,478 --> 06:43:35,920 running for food or you are running from 8317 06:43:32,878 --> 06:43:39,120 being food. In the era of the digital 8318 06:43:35,920 --> 06:43:42,120 brain, the race has only just [music] 8319 06:43:39,120 --> 06:43:42,120 begun. 8320 06:45:08,478 --> 06:45:13,360 At the edge of the world, in a country 8321 06:45:10,718 --> 06:45:15,760 with more sheep than people, one of the 8322 06:45:13,360 --> 06:45:19,040 most powerful men in Silicon Valley 8323 06:45:15,760 --> 06:45:22,240 built an escape hatch. Not a vacation 8324 06:45:19,040 --> 06:45:25,920 home, not a tax [music] shelter, a 8325 06:45:22,240 --> 06:45:29,520 contingency plan. 8326 06:45:25,920 --> 06:45:31,760 In 2011, a billionaire quietly secured 8327 06:45:29,520 --> 06:45:33,200 citizenship in New Zealand after 8328 06:45:31,760 --> 06:45:36,160 spending just [music] days in the 8329 06:45:33,200 --> 06:45:38,878 country. A legal backdoor, a 8330 06:45:36,160 --> 06:45:40,638 geopolitical lifeboat 8331 06:45:38,878 --> 06:45:43,360 deep in the [music] rugged terrain of 8332 06:45:40,638 --> 06:45:46,240 New Zealand's South Island, Peter Teal 8333 06:45:43,360 --> 06:45:48,718 owns a vast private estate, [music] 8334 06:45:46,240 --> 06:45:51,360 remote, secluded, and far from the 8335 06:45:48,718 --> 06:45:53,040 centers of power. 8336 06:45:51,360 --> 06:45:56,160 While most billionaires [music] buy 8337 06:45:53,040 --> 06:45:59,120 yachts or private islands feel secured 8338 06:45:56,160 --> 06:46:00,958 something more strategic, New Zealand 8339 06:45:59,120 --> 06:46:03,360 citizenship [music] 8340 06:46:00,958 --> 06:46:06,558 and a vast estate in one of the most 8341 06:46:03,360 --> 06:46:07,920 remote democracies on Earth. The 8342 06:46:06,558 --> 06:46:10,958 purchase price for [music] this 8343 06:46:07,920 --> 06:46:14,400 geopolitical insurance policy. 8344 06:46:10,958 --> 06:46:17,120 In 2011, Theel obtained New Zealand 8345 06:46:14,400 --> 06:46:19,380 citizenship after spending just 12 days 8346 06:46:17,120 --> 06:46:20,478 in the country over the previous 2 8347 06:46:19,380 --> 06:46:22,878 [music] years. 8348 06:46:20,478 --> 06:46:26,200 a process that normally requires years 8349 06:46:22,878 --> 06:46:26,200 of residency. 8350 06:46:26,320 --> 06:46:31,440 The investment that secured this 8351 06:46:28,160 --> 06:46:34,080 exceptional pathway, approximately $7 8352 06:46:31,440 --> 06:46:36,558 million in local assets and business 8353 06:46:34,080 --> 06:46:39,760 investments. 8354 06:46:36,558 --> 06:46:43,520 The centerpiece, a 477 8355 06:46:39,760 --> 06:46:47,200 acre estate near Lake Wanaka, purchased 8356 06:46:43,520 --> 06:46:50,400 for 13.5 million New Zealand, [music] 8357 06:46:47,200 --> 06:46:52,798 about $10 million. 8358 06:46:50,400 --> 06:46:56,320 When New Zealand media exposed the deal 8359 06:46:52,798 --> 06:46:57,440 in 2017, [music] it sparked a national 8360 06:46:56,320 --> 06:46:59,120 scandal. 8361 06:46:57,440 --> 06:47:00,718 >> Hi, Benedict. Nice to talk to you again. 8362 06:46:59,120 --> 06:47:02,638 So, when we last spoke, you told us that 8363 06:47:00,718 --> 06:47:05,280 Peter Teal was granted citizenship after 8364 06:47:02,638 --> 06:47:08,400 having only visited New Zealand four 8365 06:47:05,280 --> 06:47:10,638 times for an unknown number of days 8366 06:47:08,400 --> 06:47:12,638 because the documents had that 8367 06:47:10,638 --> 06:47:14,958 information redacted. Right. 8368 06:47:12,638 --> 06:47:17,040 >> Politicians called it citizenship for 8369 06:47:14,958 --> 06:47:19,680 sale. Opposition leaders [music] 8370 06:47:17,040 --> 06:47:21,920 demanded investigations, 8371 06:47:19,680 --> 06:47:25,120 but Theel had already achieved his 8372 06:47:21,920 --> 06:47:26,878 objective, a legal escape hatch in the 8373 06:47:25,120 --> 06:47:28,558 world's most politically stable 8374 06:47:26,878 --> 06:47:31,440 democracy, 8375 06:47:28,558 --> 06:47:35,200 a geopolitical insurance policy that 8376 06:47:31,440 --> 06:47:37,200 money can buy. 8377 06:47:35,200 --> 06:47:39,440 Why would a man who helped [music] build 8378 06:47:37,200 --> 06:47:42,478 the digital future prepare for the 8379 06:47:39,440 --> 06:47:46,160 collapse of the physical one? What does 8380 06:47:42,478 --> 06:47:49,440 he see that others don't? Yes, it's the 8381 06:47:46,160 --> 06:47:51,840 uh 1 Thessalonians 5:3, [music] the uh 8382 06:47:49,440 --> 06:47:55,360 the the slogan of the Antichrist is 8383 06:47:51,840 --> 06:47:57,360 peace and safety. And so, which is 8384 06:47:55,360 --> 06:47:59,200 nothing wrong with peace and safety, but 8385 06:47:57,360 --> 06:48:01,280 uh you have to sort of imagine that it 8386 06:47:59,200 --> 06:48:03,360 resonates very differently in a world 8387 06:48:01,280 --> 06:48:04,638 where the stakes are so absolute, where 8388 06:48:03,360 --> 06:48:07,680 the stakes are so extreme, [music] where 8389 06:48:04,638 --> 06:48:11,280 the you know the alternative to peace 8390 06:48:07,680 --> 06:48:13,760 and safety is, you know, Armageddon and 8391 06:48:11,280 --> 06:48:16,160 the destruction of all things. 8392 06:48:13,760 --> 06:48:19,600 He is one of the most polarizing figures 8393 06:48:16,160 --> 06:48:22,558 in Silicon Valley. To some, a visionary 8394 06:48:19,600 --> 06:48:25,280 genius who saw the future early. To 8395 06:48:22,558 --> 06:48:26,878 others, the shadow financier of 8396 06:48:25,280 --> 06:48:30,320 movements and [music] candidates who 8397 06:48:26,878 --> 06:48:34,240 challenge liberal democratic norms. 8398 06:48:30,320 --> 06:48:36,718 This is not fear. This is strategy. 8399 06:48:34,240 --> 06:48:40,400 For decades, Peter Theel has made the 8400 06:48:36,718 --> 06:48:43,440 same bet over and over again. Bet 8401 06:48:40,400 --> 06:48:44,240 against consensus. better against the 8402 06:48:43,440 --> 06:48:48,080 crowd, [music] 8403 06:48:44,240 --> 06:48:50,638 bet against the system itself. 8404 06:48:48,080 --> 06:48:53,200 To understand why he built a fortress at 8405 06:48:50,638 --> 06:48:55,272 the end of the earth, we have to go back 8406 06:48:53,200 --> 06:48:56,558 to a childhood of constant displacement. 8407 06:48:55,272 --> 06:48:58,878 [music] 8408 06:48:56,558 --> 06:49:01,040 To a chessboard where consensus meant 8409 06:48:58,878 --> 06:49:03,760 nothing, to a company that [music] tried 8410 06:49:01,040 --> 06:49:07,638 to replace money and another that 8411 06:49:03,760 --> 06:49:07,638 learned to see everything. 8412 06:49:07,840 --> 06:49:12,478 But the estate is [music] more than a 8413 06:49:09,840 --> 06:49:16,478 luxury retreat. It is a fortress 8414 06:49:12,478 --> 06:49:19,120 designed for civilizational uncertainty. 8415 06:49:16,478 --> 06:49:21,760 Off-grid power systems, advanced 8416 06:49:19,120 --> 06:49:23,440 security infrastructure, multiple 8417 06:49:21,760 --> 06:49:26,718 evacuation routes through the [music] 8418 06:49:23,440 --> 06:49:28,958 mountains. Not built for comfort, built 8419 06:49:26,718 --> 06:49:31,600 for continuity. 8420 06:49:28,958 --> 06:49:33,600 While the world debates progress, Peter 8421 06:49:31,600 --> 06:49:35,280 Theel is preparing for a different 8422 06:49:33,600 --> 06:49:38,000 possibility. 8423 06:49:35,280 --> 06:49:41,478 Not how to build the future, how to 8424 06:49:38,000 --> 06:49:41,478 survive it. 8425 06:49:42,798 --> 06:49:48,638 The architect of dissident 8426 06:49:46,400 --> 06:49:52,160 total estimated value of Theo's 8427 06:49:48,638 --> 06:49:53,920 contingency infrastructure 20 to $30 8428 06:49:52,160 --> 06:49:57,280 million. 8429 06:49:53,920 --> 06:49:59,462 Not for lifestyle, not for prestige, but 8430 06:49:57,280 --> 06:50:01,840 for the day the system he helped build 8431 06:49:59,462 --> 06:50:03,920 [music] no longer holds. 8432 06:50:01,840 --> 06:50:06,718 He didn't build this because he panics 8433 06:50:03,920 --> 06:50:08,632 easily. He built it because he has 8434 06:50:06,718 --> 06:50:09,360 always believed that the crowd is wrong 8435 06:50:08,632 --> 06:50:11,920 [music] 8436 06:50:09,360 --> 06:50:15,280 and the future belongs to those willing 8437 06:50:11,920 --> 06:50:18,638 to stand apart from it. Every fortress 8438 06:50:15,280 --> 06:50:20,958 begins as an idea and Peter Theel has 8439 06:50:18,638 --> 06:50:24,840 been building intellectual fortresses 8440 06:50:20,958 --> 06:50:24,840 since he was a child. 8441 06:50:28,798 --> 06:50:34,080 Before he was a billionaire, before he 8442 06:50:31,280 --> 06:50:35,600 funded political outsiders, before he 8443 06:50:34,080 --> 06:50:38,000 built machines that could see 8444 06:50:35,600 --> 06:50:40,000 everything, he was a boy [music] 8445 06:50:38,000 --> 06:50:43,280 who never stayed in one place long 8446 06:50:40,000 --> 06:50:45,280 enough to believe the world made sense. 8447 06:50:43,280 --> 06:50:48,718 So, he searched for a world where the 8448 06:50:45,280 --> 06:50:50,558 rules didn't change. He found it on a 8449 06:50:48,718 --> 06:50:52,958 chessboard. 8450 06:50:50,558 --> 06:50:54,958 To understand Peter Theel, you must 8451 06:50:52,958 --> 06:50:57,600 understand what it means to be a 8452 06:50:54,958 --> 06:51:00,400 permanent outsider. 8453 06:50:57,600 --> 06:51:02,798 Born in Frankfurt, West Germany, Peter 8454 06:51:00,400 --> 06:51:06,400 Theel spent part of his early childhood 8455 06:51:02,798 --> 06:51:08,718 in southwest Africa, now Namibia, before 8456 06:51:06,400 --> 06:51:12,080 growing up mainly in the United States 8457 06:51:08,718 --> 06:51:14,400 between [music] Ohio and California. 8458 06:51:12,080 --> 06:51:17,680 Before he was a teenager, he had already 8459 06:51:14,400 --> 06:51:20,000 experienced life on multiple continents, 8460 06:51:17,680 --> 06:51:22,000 never staying long enough to feel fully 8461 06:51:20,000 --> 06:51:24,718 at home. 8462 06:51:22,000 --> 06:51:28,558 He didn't have a hometown. He didn't 8463 06:51:24,718 --> 06:51:30,958 have a tribe. He only had his own mind. 8464 06:51:28,558 --> 06:51:34,320 And in that isolation, he found a 8465 06:51:30,958 --> 06:51:37,320 language that didn't require a passport. 8466 06:51:34,320 --> 06:51:37,320 Chess. 8467 06:51:37,840 --> 06:51:41,280 For a child who changed continents 8468 06:51:39,680 --> 06:51:43,280 [music] before he could even make 8469 06:51:41,280 --> 06:51:47,280 friends, the outside world was 8470 06:51:43,280 --> 06:51:49,600 unpredictable noise. But the board, the 8471 06:51:47,280 --> 06:51:53,680 board was the only place where the rules 8472 06:51:49,600 --> 06:51:56,558 didn't change depending on the country. 8473 06:51:53,680 --> 06:51:58,958 His 8474 06:51:56,558 --> 06:52:01,360 father, an engineer trained in a culture 8475 06:51:58,958 --> 06:52:03,760 of precision and systems thinking, 8476 06:52:01,360 --> 06:52:07,200 passed on a belief that reality could be 8477 06:52:03,760 --> 06:52:09,760 understood and optimized. 8478 06:52:07,200 --> 06:52:12,798 While other children sought to fit in, 8479 06:52:09,760 --> 06:52:15,600 Peter sought the edge. He learned that 8480 06:52:12,798 --> 06:52:17,280 the consensus of the crowd is usually a 8481 06:52:15,600 --> 06:52:19,840 distraction. 8482 06:52:17,280 --> 06:52:22,478 If everyone is running toward the ball, 8483 06:52:19,840 --> 06:52:24,160 you run toward where the ball is going 8484 06:52:22,478 --> 06:52:26,320 to be. 8485 06:52:24,160 --> 06:52:28,160 Chess is the ultimate antidote to 8486 06:52:26,320 --> 06:52:30,080 consensus. 8487 06:52:28,160 --> 06:52:32,798 In a crowd, you can hide behind a 8488 06:52:30,080 --> 06:52:35,920 popular opinion. In chess, you are 8489 06:52:32,798 --> 06:52:38,160 either right or you are dead. There is 8490 06:52:35,920 --> 06:52:40,798 no middle ground. There is no social 8491 06:52:38,160 --> 06:52:42,798 construction of the board. 8492 06:52:40,798 --> 06:52:45,440 He became a serious tournament chess 8493 06:52:42,798 --> 06:52:48,240 player drawn to a world where rules were 8494 06:52:45,440 --> 06:52:52,000 fixed, outcomes were earned, and 8495 06:52:48,240 --> 06:52:56,320 consensus meant [music] nothing. 8496 06:52:52,000 --> 06:52:58,638 Mid1 1980s Stanford University. 8497 06:52:56,320 --> 06:53:00,958 To the world this was the peak of 8498 06:52:58,638 --> 06:53:05,200 American meritocracy. 8499 06:53:00,958 --> 06:53:07,280 To Theel it was a factory of conformity. 8500 06:53:05,200 --> 06:53:08,558 While his classmates were debating how 8501 06:53:07,280 --> 06:53:11,200 to change [music] the world through 8502 06:53:08,558 --> 06:53:14,558 activism, Theel was wondering why they 8503 06:53:11,200 --> 06:53:16,638 all sounded exactly the same. He saw the 8504 06:53:14,558 --> 06:53:18,798 multiculturalism movement not as 8505 06:53:16,638 --> 06:53:20,958 progress but as a new form of 8506 06:53:18,798 --> 06:53:23,040 fundamentalism. 8507 06:53:20,958 --> 06:53:25,280 Stanford in the late 1980s [music] 8508 06:53:23,040 --> 06:53:28,320 was ground zero for America's culture 8509 06:53:25,280 --> 06:53:30,558 wars, battles over multiculturalism, 8510 06:53:28,320 --> 06:53:32,478 speech, and the purpose of higher 8511 06:53:30,558 --> 06:53:34,798 education. 8512 06:53:32,478 --> 06:53:38,160 Field believed the university was 8513 06:53:34,798 --> 06:53:39,920 drifting toward ideological conformity, 8514 06:53:38,160 --> 06:53:43,360 that certain views were becoming 8515 06:53:39,920 --> 06:53:46,000 socially, if not formally, offlimits. 8516 06:53:43,360 --> 06:53:49,360 Here his investment methodology was 8517 06:53:46,000 --> 06:53:53,280 born. Identify what the crowd considers 8518 06:53:49,360 --> 06:53:56,718 sacred and question it. 8519 06:53:53,280 --> 06:53:59,680 If everyone says identity diversity is 8520 06:53:56,718 --> 06:54:02,638 the most important thing, you argue that 8521 06:53:59,680 --> 06:54:04,718 intellectual diversity is the only thing 8522 06:54:02,638 --> 06:54:06,958 that matters. 8523 06:54:04,718 --> 06:54:10,160 He wasn't looking for friends. He was 8524 06:54:06,958 --> 06:54:13,040 looking to recruit others who like him 8525 06:54:10,160 --> 06:54:16,160 did not fear being hated. 8526 06:54:13,040 --> 06:54:18,718 He founded the Stanford Review. 8527 06:54:16,160 --> 06:54:20,810 The paper quickly became one of the most 8528 06:54:18,718 --> 06:54:21,920 controversial publications on campus, 8529 06:54:20,810 --> 06:54:24,798 [music] 8530 06:54:21,920 --> 06:54:28,638 attacking what field saw as intellectual 8531 06:54:24,798 --> 06:54:30,798 monoculture and political group think. 8532 06:54:28,638 --> 06:54:33,200 He saw that the smartest people in the 8533 06:54:30,798 --> 06:54:36,400 country were all competing for the same 8534 06:54:33,200 --> 06:54:38,160 narrow prizes, thinking the same narrow 8535 06:54:36,400 --> 06:54:41,520 thoughts. 8536 06:54:38,160 --> 06:54:45,040 He did what every top student does. He 8537 06:54:41,520 --> 06:54:47,200 followed the track. After Stanford Law, 8538 06:54:45,040 --> 06:54:49,600 he secured a prestigious federal 8539 06:54:47,200 --> 06:54:51,920 appalate clerkship, the kind of 8540 06:54:49,600 --> 06:54:53,760 credential that opens every elite door 8541 06:54:51,920 --> 06:54:56,000 in America. 8542 06:54:53,760 --> 06:54:58,240 After his clerkship, he joined Sullivan 8543 06:54:56,000 --> 06:55:01,440 and Cromwell in [music] New York, one of 8544 06:54:58,240 --> 06:55:04,160 the most elite law firms in the world. 8545 06:55:01,440 --> 06:55:06,558 On paper, he had reached the summit. 8546 06:55:04,160 --> 06:55:09,120 Wall Street was his great negative 8547 06:55:06,558 --> 06:55:11,360 epiphany. 8548 06:55:09,120 --> 06:55:13,520 But from his perspective, the brightest 8549 06:55:11,360 --> 06:55:15,600 graduates in America were locked in 8550 06:55:13,520 --> 06:55:18,558 brutal competition for careers they 8551 06:55:15,600 --> 06:55:20,958 didn't even seem to want. 8552 06:55:18,558 --> 06:55:23,600 It looked like Renee Gerard's theory 8553 06:55:20,958 --> 06:55:26,000 made flesh, a system where everyone 8554 06:55:23,600 --> 06:55:29,120 desired the same prize simply because 8555 06:55:26,000 --> 06:55:31,920 everyone else did. Wall Street looked at 8556 06:55:29,120 --> 06:55:34,958 Theo like a laboratory of mimemetic 8557 06:55:31,920 --> 06:55:37,520 rivalry. He realized that if he won that 8558 06:55:34,958 --> 06:55:40,798 race, his prize would be becoming the 8559 06:55:37,520 --> 06:55:44,080 man in the office next door. A copy of a 8560 06:55:40,798 --> 06:55:46,240 copy. The day he lost the opportunity to 8561 06:55:44,080 --> 06:55:50,400 clerk for the US Supreme [music] Court 8562 06:55:46,240 --> 06:55:53,680 wasn't a defeat. It was his liberation. 8563 06:55:50,400 --> 06:55:56,320 He lasted less than a year. But Theo's 8564 06:55:53,680 --> 06:55:59,120 first venture after leaving law was a 8565 06:55:56,320 --> 06:56:01,040 humbling lesson in failure. A lesson 8566 06:55:59,120 --> 06:56:04,000 that would shape everything that came 8567 06:56:01,040 --> 06:56:07,280 after. 8568 06:56:04,000 --> 06:56:10,000 In 1996, he launched Theel Capital 8569 06:56:07,280 --> 06:56:12,958 Management, 8570 06:56:10,000 --> 06:56:16,160 a hedge fund focused on currency trading 8571 06:56:12,958 --> 06:56:18,958 and macroeconomic derivatives. 8572 06:56:16,160 --> 06:56:20,958 The strategy was to make big directional 8573 06:56:18,958 --> 06:56:23,440 bets on [music] interest rates, 8574 06:56:20,958 --> 06:56:26,638 inflation expectations, and foreign 8575 06:56:23,440 --> 06:56:30,478 exchange movements. Initial capital 8576 06:56:26,638 --> 06:56:32,558 raised $1 million mostly from Stanford 8577 06:56:30,478 --> 06:56:37,320 connections who believed in the chess 8578 06:56:32,558 --> 06:56:37,320 prodigy turned lawyer turned financia. 8579 06:56:38,160 --> 06:56:43,520 The result was spectacular failure. 8580 06:56:41,280 --> 06:56:46,222 Within the first year, the fund had lost 8581 06:56:43,520 --> 06:56:46,798 significant capital. Industry estimates 8582 06:56:46,222 --> 06:56:50,320 [music] 8583 06:56:46,798 --> 06:56:54,240 suggest losses between 30 and 40% of the 8584 06:56:50,320 --> 06:56:56,638 initial investment pool. Investors fled. 8585 06:56:54,240 --> 06:56:58,638 Some demanded their remaining money back 8586 06:56:56,638 --> 06:57:01,040 immediately. [music] 8587 06:56:58,638 --> 06:57:02,878 The reputation among finance 8588 06:57:01,040 --> 06:57:04,478 professionals, the people he [music] had 8589 06:57:02,878 --> 06:57:08,160 walked away from at Sullivan and 8590 06:57:04,478 --> 06:57:11,440 Cromwell, took a serious hit. 8591 06:57:08,160 --> 06:57:14,718 He was no longer the Stanford genius. He 8592 06:57:11,440 --> 06:57:17,200 was just another failed trader. 8593 06:57:14,718 --> 06:57:19,680 But this failure taught him the most 8594 06:57:17,200 --> 06:57:22,718 important lesson of his career. 8595 06:57:19,680 --> 06:57:25,120 Competition is for losers. 8596 06:57:22,718 --> 06:57:27,840 Do not compete in crowded markets where 8597 06:57:25,120 --> 06:57:29,520 everyone is making the same trades with 8598 06:57:27,840 --> 06:57:31,520 the same information [music] and the 8599 06:57:29,520 --> 06:57:33,920 same tools. 8600 06:57:31,520 --> 06:57:37,120 Wall Street was full of extremely smart 8601 06:57:33,920 --> 06:57:38,718 people doing the same macro trades, 8602 06:57:37,120 --> 06:57:41,280 reading the same economic [music] 8603 06:57:38,718 --> 06:57:44,400 reports, betting on the same currency 8604 06:57:41,280 --> 06:57:46,878 movements. It was a zero someum game 8605 06:57:44,400 --> 06:57:49,680 played by thousands of nearly identical 8606 06:57:46,878 --> 06:57:51,840 players. 8607 06:57:49,680 --> 06:57:54,958 He needed to find a space where the 8608 06:57:51,840 --> 06:57:57,360 rules were still being written. Where 8609 06:57:54,958 --> 06:58:00,638 being first mattered more than being 8610 06:57:57,360 --> 06:58:02,558 best, where a monopoly position was 8611 06:58:00,638 --> 06:58:04,878 still available. 8612 06:58:02,558 --> 06:58:07,280 He needed technology. [music] 8613 06:58:04,878 --> 06:58:11,040 And from the ashes of the capital 8614 06:58:07,280 --> 06:58:13,600 management, a new philosophy was born. 8615 06:58:11,040 --> 06:58:16,878 If you want to create lasting value, you 8616 06:58:13,600 --> 06:58:19,680 have to build a monopoly. This became 8617 06:58:16,878 --> 06:58:23,400 his investing mantra and it would make 8618 06:58:19,680 --> 06:58:23,400 him billions. 8619 06:58:24,958 --> 06:58:29,920 Theel walked away from the firm and went 8620 06:58:27,040 --> 06:58:32,798 back to California not to start a tech 8621 06:58:29,920 --> 06:58:36,400 empire but to try trading then to launch 8622 06:58:32,798 --> 06:58:38,638 a hedge fund. It failed. The system he 8623 06:58:36,400 --> 06:58:42,638 had rejected did not welcome him back as 8624 06:58:38,638 --> 06:58:44,638 a prodigy. It treated him like a nobody. 8625 06:58:42,638 --> 06:58:46,744 That failure would become the last 8626 06:58:44,638 --> 06:58:48,160 lesson before his real beginning. 8627 06:58:46,744 --> 06:58:50,718 [music] 8628 06:58:48,160 --> 06:58:53,600 But he learned something. If you play 8629 06:58:50,718 --> 06:58:55,600 the system game as everyone else, you've 8630 06:58:53,600 --> 06:58:57,600 already lost. 8631 06:58:55,600 --> 06:59:03,240 The chess master was done with the 8632 06:58:57,600 --> 06:59:03,240 board. He was ready to build his own. 8633 06:59:08,240 --> 06:59:12,160 So this is an ATM. What we're going to 8634 06:59:10,160 --> 06:59:14,000 do is transform the traditional banking 8635 06:59:12,160 --> 06:59:17,440 industry. 8636 06:59:14,000 --> 06:59:19,120 >> I do not fit the picture of a banker. 8637 06:59:17,440 --> 06:59:21,200 >> X.com. This is Julie. 8638 06:59:19,120 --> 06:59:23,200 >> Raising $50 million is a matter of 8639 06:59:21,200 --> 06:59:26,000 making a series of phone [music] calls 8640 06:59:23,200 --> 06:59:27,920 and the money is there. 8641 06:59:26,000 --> 06:59:30,478 >> I've sunk the great majority of of my 8642 06:59:27,920 --> 06:59:32,558 net worth into X.com, which is the new 8643 06:59:30,478 --> 06:59:34,638 banking and mutual funds company on the 8644 06:59:32,558 --> 06:59:37,120 internet [music] that I've started. 8645 06:59:34,638 --> 06:59:39,920 December 1998, 8646 06:59:37,120 --> 06:59:43,200 Peter Theel co-founds a company called 8647 06:59:39,920 --> 06:59:46,400 Conffinity with Max Levchin, a brilliant 8648 06:59:43,200 --> 06:59:49,920 Ukrainianborn programmer, and Luke Nosk, 8649 06:59:46,400 --> 06:59:53,120 a fellow Stanford review illuminous. 8650 06:59:49,920 --> 06:59:55,120 Initial funding, $300,000 scraped 8651 06:59:53,120 --> 06:59:57,280 together from friends, family, and 8652 06:59:55,120 --> 06:59:59,360 fellow libertarian true believers from 8653 06:59:57,280 --> 07:00:01,760 the Stamford days. 8654 06:59:59,360 --> 07:00:05,680 The original product idea, digital 8655 07:00:01,760 --> 07:00:08,080 wallets on Palm Pilot handheld devices. 8656 07:00:05,680 --> 07:00:10,638 The vision was that people would beam 8657 07:00:08,080 --> 07:00:13,280 money to each other using infrared ports 8658 07:00:10,638 --> 07:00:16,000 on the Palm Pilots 8659 07:00:13,280 --> 07:00:17,520 in coffee shops, at restaurants, 8660 07:00:16,000 --> 07:00:21,878 persontoerson, 8661 07:00:17,520 --> 07:00:21,878 bypassing banks [music] entirely. 8662 07:00:22,160 --> 07:00:30,240 Total users after 6 months of operation, 8663 07:00:25,760 --> 07:00:32,478 12 people. literally 12. 8664 07:00:30,240 --> 07:00:35,200 Most of them were employees and their 8665 07:00:32,478 --> 07:00:38,798 friends testing the system. It was a 8666 07:00:35,200 --> 07:00:41,760 complete and utter flop. The technology 8667 07:00:38,798 --> 07:00:46,718 worked, but nobody cared. Nobody wanted 8668 07:00:41,760 --> 07:00:50,080 it. March 2000, Confinity pivots hard 8669 07:00:46,718 --> 07:00:52,400 and launches a new feature, email-based 8670 07:00:50,080 --> 07:00:55,520 money transfers. 8671 07:00:52,400 --> 07:00:57,920 You send money to any email address. The 8672 07:00:55,520 --> 07:01:00,400 recipient gets a notification, creates 8673 07:00:57,920 --> 07:01:03,440 an account, and the money is there. 8674 07:01:00,400 --> 07:01:06,878 Simple, instant, revolutionary. The name 8675 07:01:03,440 --> 07:01:08,880 of this new service, PayPal. 8676 07:01:06,878 --> 07:01:11,440 Within weeks, user growth exploded 8677 07:01:08,880 --> 07:01:14,000 [music] at a rate nobody had ever seen 8678 07:01:11,440 --> 07:01:18,558 in financial services. 8679 07:01:14,000 --> 07:01:24,080 Month one, 10,000 users. Month three, 8680 07:01:18,558 --> 07:01:29,040 100,000 users. Month 6, 1 million users. 8681 07:01:24,080 --> 07:01:31,440 Month 12, 5 million users. 8682 07:01:29,040 --> 07:01:33,680 This was the fastest user adoption rate 8683 07:01:31,440 --> 07:01:36,638 in the entire history of financial 8684 07:01:33,680 --> 07:01:39,120 services. Faster than credit cards, 8685 07:01:36,638 --> 07:01:41,120 faster than checking accounts, faster 8686 07:01:39,120 --> 07:01:43,680 than anything. 8687 07:01:41,120 --> 07:01:46,718 But here is what most people do not know 8688 07:01:43,680 --> 07:01:50,080 about PayPal's growth. Here is the 8689 07:01:46,718 --> 07:01:53,200 secret that the mythology leaves out. 8690 07:01:50,080 --> 07:01:57,600 PayPal's explosive user acquisition was 8691 07:01:53,200 --> 07:02:02,478 not organic. It was not word of mouth. 8692 07:01:57,600 --> 07:02:04,798 It was not viral in the natural sense. 8693 07:02:02,478 --> 07:02:08,718 They literally bought their users with 8694 07:02:04,798 --> 07:02:11,520 cash. The strategy was elegantly simple 8695 07:02:08,718 --> 07:02:14,638 and brutally expensive. 8696 07:02:11,520 --> 07:02:17,760 Sign up for a PayPal account, get $10 8697 07:02:14,638 --> 07:02:21,360 deposited instantly. Refer a friend who 8698 07:02:17,760 --> 07:02:25,520 signs up gets another $10. Your friend 8699 07:02:21,360 --> 07:02:27,760 also gets $10. Cost per acquisition 20 8700 07:02:25,520 --> 07:02:30,080 to $40 per user [music] 8701 07:02:27,760 --> 07:02:32,478 depending on how many referrals each 8702 07:02:30,080 --> 07:02:35,760 user generated. 8703 07:02:32,478 --> 07:02:38,638 Monthly cash burn rate at peak growth 10 8704 07:02:35,760 --> 07:02:41,920 to 12 million [music] 8705 07:02:38,638 --> 07:02:44,080 just vanishing into a user acquisition. 8706 07:02:41,920 --> 07:02:47,840 By late 2000, PayPal [music] was 8707 07:02:44,080 --> 07:02:51,520 spending 60 to 70 million annually just 8708 07:02:47,840 --> 07:02:53,600 to buy users with cash incentives. 8709 07:02:51,520 --> 07:02:56,240 They were hemorrhaging money at a 8710 07:02:53,600 --> 07:02:58,798 terrifying rate. Investors were 8711 07:02:56,240 --> 07:03:01,520 panicking. Board members were demanding 8712 07:02:58,798 --> 07:03:04,000 answers. 8713 07:03:01,520 --> 07:03:07,600 How long can you sustain spending $10 8714 07:03:04,000 --> 07:03:10,638 million a month buying users? 8715 07:03:07,600 --> 07:03:13,680 But Theel had done the mathematics. He 8716 07:03:10,638 --> 07:03:16,638 had run the numbers obsessively. 8717 07:03:13,680 --> 07:03:19,882 Each acquired user was worth $100 to 8718 07:03:16,638 --> 07:03:23,120 $200 in lifetime transaction fee revenue 8719 07:03:19,882 --> 07:03:26,160 [music] through the PayPal network. They 8720 07:03:23,120 --> 07:03:30,400 were buying $100 bills for $20 [music] 8721 07:03:26,160 --> 07:03:32,558 bills. It was either genius or insanity 8722 07:03:30,400 --> 07:03:35,120 depending on whether the math actually 8723 07:03:32,558 --> 07:03:38,638 worked. The believed [music] it would 8724 07:03:35,120 --> 07:03:42,080 work. He bet everything on it. But there 8725 07:03:38,638 --> 07:03:44,160 was a problem. a major problem. Another 8726 07:03:42,080 --> 07:03:48,478 company was doing the exact [music] same 8727 07:03:44,160 --> 07:03:51,680 thing. X.com, a finance company founded 8728 07:03:48,478 --> 07:03:54,160 by Elon Musk with money from his Zip 2 8729 07:03:51,680 --> 07:03:58,878 exit and a vision for online banking 8730 07:03:54,160 --> 07:04:02,478 that was nearly identical to PayPal's. 8731 07:03:58,878 --> 07:04:05,440 Two companies, same idea, same market, 8732 07:04:02,478 --> 07:04:08,958 both burning massive amounts of cash at 8733 07:04:05,440 --> 07:04:11,600 completely unsustainable rates. Total 8734 07:04:08,958 --> 07:04:14,638 funding raised between both companies 8735 07:04:11,600 --> 07:04:18,000 over $100 million. 8736 07:04:14,638 --> 07:04:20,958 Combined monthly cash burn rate over $20 8737 07:04:18,000 --> 07:04:23,360 million time until both companies 8738 07:04:20,958 --> 07:04:26,878 simultaneously [music] ran out of money 8739 07:04:23,360 --> 07:04:29,680 less than 6 months. 8740 07:04:26,878 --> 07:04:33,280 The merger was inevitable. 8741 07:04:29,680 --> 07:04:36,320 X.com and Confinity merged into a single 8742 07:04:33,280 --> 07:04:38,638 entity. The combined company kept the 8743 07:04:36,320 --> 07:04:42,400 PayPal name because users had already 8744 07:04:38,638 --> 07:04:44,240 adopted it. The brand had momentum. Elon 8745 07:04:42,400 --> 07:04:47,360 Musk became chief executive [music] 8746 07:04:44,240 --> 07:04:50,360 officer of the merged company for 5 8747 07:04:47,360 --> 07:04:50,360 months. 8748 07:04:51,680 --> 07:04:58,000 October 2000. While Elon Musk was on his 8749 07:04:55,360 --> 07:05:00,718 honeymoon, the board of directors led by 8750 07:04:58,000 --> 07:05:03,920 Peter Theel and other Confinity founders 8751 07:05:00,718 --> 07:05:06,478 held an emergency meeting and voted Musk 8752 07:05:03,920 --> 07:05:09,200 out as CEO. 8753 07:05:06,478 --> 07:05:11,040 The official reasons cited strategic 8754 07:05:09,200 --> 07:05:14,320 disagreements over technology [music] 8755 07:05:11,040 --> 07:05:17,120 platform. Musk wanted to use Microsoft 8756 07:05:14,320 --> 07:05:20,478 software. The Confinity engineers 8757 07:05:17,120 --> 07:05:24,000 believed in Unix based systems. The 8758 07:05:20,478 --> 07:05:29,360 actual reason Theel wanted control, full 8759 07:05:24,000 --> 07:05:31,520 control. This was his company now. 8760 07:05:29,360 --> 07:05:34,878 Peter Theel became chief executive 8761 07:05:31,520 --> 07:05:37,360 officer of PayPal. Elon Musk remained a 8762 07:05:34,878 --> 07:05:41,120 major shareholder, but his operational 8763 07:05:37,360 --> 07:05:44,000 control [music] was finished. 8764 07:05:41,120 --> 07:05:46,160 The two men, both future billionaires, 8765 07:05:44,000 --> 07:05:50,240 both future power brokers, had [music] 8766 07:05:46,160 --> 07:05:53,120 their first battle. feel one. At its 8767 07:05:50,240 --> 07:05:56,080 core, PayPal ran on a simple idea that 8768 07:05:53,120 --> 07:05:58,638 turned into a powerful engine. 8769 07:05:56,080 --> 07:06:02,718 Every time money moved, PayPal took a 8770 07:05:58,638 --> 07:06:04,944 small cut, 2.9% plus 30 cents per 8771 07:06:02,718 --> 07:06:06,958 transaction. If that money crossed 8772 07:06:04,944 --> 07:06:10,320 [music] borders, the fee climbed to 8773 07:06:06,958 --> 07:06:12,478 between 2 1/2 and 4%. 8774 07:06:10,320 --> 07:06:14,400 Then there was the float, the cash 8775 07:06:12,478 --> 07:06:15,440 sitting in PayPal's accounts between 8776 07:06:14,400 --> 07:06:17,200 payments, [music] 8777 07:06:15,440 --> 07:06:20,798 quietly earning interest for the 8778 07:06:17,200 --> 07:06:22,558 company. Tiny slices repeated millions 8779 07:06:20,798 --> 07:06:25,680 of times. 8780 07:06:22,558 --> 07:06:29,440 By 2001, the numbers told the story of a 8781 07:06:25,680 --> 07:06:32,320 system coming to life. Every single day, 8782 07:06:29,440 --> 07:06:35,360 5 to8 million flowed through PayPal's 8783 07:06:32,320 --> 07:06:40,320 network. Each month, that translated 8784 07:06:35,360 --> 07:06:43,280 into 10 to$15 million in revenue. 8785 07:06:40,320 --> 07:06:45,840 But growth at this speed came at a cost. 8786 07:06:43,280 --> 07:06:48,718 Running the system, fighting fraud, 8787 07:06:45,840 --> 07:06:53,840 scaling infrastructure, acquiring users 8788 07:06:48,718 --> 07:06:56,160 was burning 20 to30 million every month. 8789 07:06:53,840 --> 07:06:58,558 The machine worked, it just wasn't 8790 07:06:56,160 --> 07:07:00,558 profitable yet. 8791 07:06:58,558 --> 07:07:03,120 Late 2000, 8792 07:07:00,558 --> 07:07:06,798 PayPal's data scientists discovered 8793 07:07:03,120 --> 07:07:09,200 something crucial. 70% of all PayPal 8794 07:07:06,798 --> 07:07:10,878 transactions were happening on eBay 8795 07:07:09,200 --> 07:07:13,120 auctions. 8796 07:07:10,878 --> 07:07:15,680 People buying and selling random items 8797 07:07:13,120 --> 07:07:19,120 on the internet's largest marketplace 8798 07:07:15,680 --> 07:07:21,440 were using PayPal to move money. The 8799 07:07:19,120 --> 07:07:24,798 strategic insight became immediately 8800 07:07:21,440 --> 07:07:28,958 clear. Make PayPal the only payment 8801 07:07:24,798 --> 07:07:31,404 method that eBay users trust completely. 8802 07:07:28,958 --> 07:07:32,958 Own that market, become indispensable. 8803 07:07:31,404 --> 07:07:35,600 [music] 8804 07:07:32,958 --> 07:07:37,920 The execution buyer protection 8805 07:07:35,600 --> 07:07:40,718 guarantees that eBay's own payment 8806 07:07:37,920 --> 07:07:43,360 system did not offer 8807 07:07:40,718 --> 07:07:47,240 instant payment transfers with no 7-day 8808 07:07:43,360 --> 07:07:47,240 check clearing period. 8809 07:07:47,680 --> 07:07:52,798 Fraud detection algorithms that were 8810 07:07:49,840 --> 07:07:55,680 better than credit card companies. Email 8811 07:07:52,798 --> 07:08:00,160 notifications for every transaction. 8812 07:07:55,680 --> 07:08:03,520 Simple, clean user interface. 8813 07:08:00,160 --> 07:08:07,280 By mid 2001, the strategy was working 8814 07:08:03,520 --> 07:08:10,000 beyond all projections. 50% of all eBay 8815 07:08:07,280 --> 07:08:13,680 auctions accepted PayPal as a payment 8816 07:08:10,000 --> 07:08:16,160 method. PayPal was processing $50 8817 07:08:13,680 --> 07:08:19,120 million daily in eBay related 8818 07:08:16,160 --> 07:08:24,320 transactions alone. And then eBay 8819 07:08:19,120 --> 07:08:26,400 noticed and eBay was not happy. 8820 07:08:24,320 --> 07:08:28,718 eBay launched their own competing 8821 07:08:26,400 --> 07:08:31,520 service called Billpoint and attempted 8822 07:08:28,718 --> 07:08:33,680 to kill PayPal through the marketplace. 8823 07:08:31,520 --> 07:08:36,718 They promoted Billoint in search 8824 07:08:33,680 --> 07:08:39,440 rankings. They penalized sellers who 8825 07:08:36,718 --> 07:08:42,558 only accepted PayPal. They made it 8826 07:08:39,440 --> 07:08:44,320 harder to display the PayPal logo. It 8827 07:08:42,558 --> 07:08:47,360 was war. 8828 07:08:44,320 --> 07:08:50,000 PayPal's response was total war. 8829 07:08:47,360 --> 07:08:52,558 Temporarily lower transaction fees to 8830 07:08:50,000 --> 07:08:54,718 undercut Bill. 8831 07:08:52,558 --> 07:08:57,920 Guarantee faster money transfers than 8832 07:08:54,718 --> 07:09:01,600 eBay could offer. Invest heavily in 8833 07:08:57,920 --> 07:09:04,638 superior $30 million deployed in 2001 8834 07:09:01,600 --> 07:09:07,200 fraud protection. Massive marketing 8835 07:09:04,638 --> 07:09:10,958 spending alone. 8836 07:09:07,200 --> 07:09:15,280 By early 2002, the war was over. PayPal 8837 07:09:10,958 --> 07:09:19,280 controlled 65% of eBay's payment market. 8838 07:09:15,280 --> 07:09:21,600 Bill point at barely 10%. 8839 07:09:19,280 --> 07:09:24,240 eBay executives looked at the numbers 8840 07:09:21,600 --> 07:09:29,280 and reached a conclusion, if you cannot 8841 07:09:24,240 --> 07:09:33,440 beat them, buy them. July 2002, 8842 07:09:29,280 --> 07:09:35,520 eBay acquires PayPal for $1.5 billion in 8843 07:09:33,440 --> 07:09:39,200 eBay stock. 8844 07:09:35,520 --> 07:09:42,080 Peter Theal owned approximately $3.7% of 8845 07:09:39,200 --> 07:09:45,280 PayPal at the time of the acquisition. 8846 07:09:42,080 --> 07:09:48,798 His equity stake was worth $55 million 8847 07:09:45,280 --> 07:09:51,280 in eBay stock. After taxes, he walked 8848 07:09:48,798 --> 07:09:55,200 away with approximately $40 million in 8849 07:09:51,280 --> 07:09:58,798 liquid wealth. At age 34, he had won his 8850 07:09:55,200 --> 07:10:00,798 first billion dollar game. 8851 07:09:58,798 --> 07:10:04,160 But the money was not the most valuable 8852 07:10:00,798 --> 07:10:08,160 thing he extracted from PayPal. The real 8853 07:10:04,160 --> 07:10:10,478 value was the network, the PayPal mafia, 8854 07:10:08,160 --> 07:10:14,558 the name they gave themselves. And it 8855 07:10:10,478 --> 07:10:17,360 was not ironic. It was descriptive. The 8856 07:10:14,558 --> 07:10:19,440 core team that Theel assembled at PayPal 8857 07:10:17,360 --> 07:10:22,638 would go on to create some of the most 8858 07:10:19,440 --> 07:10:28,638 valuable companies in human history. 8859 07:10:22,638 --> 07:10:30,958 Elon Musk Tesla market cap $650 billion. 8860 07:10:28,638 --> 07:10:35,680 SpaceX estimated value [music] 8861 07:10:30,958 --> 07:10:39,520 $150 billion. Reed Hoffman LinkedIn sold 8862 07:10:35,680 --> 07:10:43,600 to Microsoft for $26 billion. 8863 07:10:39,520 --> 07:10:48,400 Steve Chen, Chad Hurley, Jawed Kareem, 8864 07:10:43,600 --> 07:10:53,240 YouTube sold to Google for 1.65 billion, 8865 07:10:48,400 --> 07:10:53,240 now worth over 100 billion. 8866 07:10:53,520 --> 07:11:00,240 Jeremy Stoppleman and Russell Simmons, 8867 07:10:56,160 --> 07:11:03,280 Yelp, peaked at $3 billion market cap. 8868 07:11:00,240 --> 07:11:06,400 David Saxs, Yammer, sold to Microsoft 8869 07:11:03,280 --> 07:11:09,360 for $1.2 billion. 8870 07:11:06,400 --> 07:11:14,000 later founded Craft Ventures. Max 8871 07:11:09,360 --> 07:11:14,718 Levchin, a firm 12 billion company. Also 8872 07:11:14,000 --> 07:11:20,000 co-founded [music] 8873 07:11:14,718 --> 07:11:23,200 Yelp. Keith Rabo, COO of Square, partner 8874 07:11:20,000 --> 07:11:26,200 at Founders Fund, investor in dozens of 8875 07:11:23,200 --> 07:11:26,200 unicorns. 8876 07:11:26,320 --> 07:11:33,040 Roloff Bofer, partner at Seoia Capital, 8877 07:11:30,240 --> 07:11:37,600 led investments in Instagram, YouTube, 8878 07:11:33,040 --> 07:11:40,638 Tumblr, MongoDB, Eventbrite. 8879 07:11:37,600 --> 07:11:42,558 Total value created by the PayPal mafia 8880 07:11:40,638 --> 07:11:46,080 across all their companies, 8881 07:11:42,558 --> 07:11:48,478 conservatively estimated at over $200 8882 07:11:46,080 --> 07:11:50,798 billion in combined market 8883 07:11:48,478 --> 07:11:52,958 capitalization. 8884 07:11:50,798 --> 07:11:54,798 Field's ownership stakes across this 8885 07:11:52,958 --> 07:11:58,000 extended network through direct 8886 07:11:54,798 --> 07:12:01,200 investments and fund positions estimated 8887 07:11:58,000 --> 07:12:03,200 at 2 to4 billion. 8888 07:12:01,200 --> 07:12:06,320 This was not just a company that got 8889 07:12:03,200 --> 07:12:09,200 acquired. This was the creation of the 8890 07:12:06,320 --> 07:12:12,600 most powerful business cartel in Silicon 8891 07:12:09,200 --> 07:12:12,600 Valley history. 8892 07:12:12,798 --> 07:12:18,320 But what made PayPal different was not 8893 07:12:15,360 --> 07:12:20,718 the technology. Not really. The 8894 07:12:18,320 --> 07:12:22,320 technology was impressive but not 8895 07:12:20,718 --> 07:12:24,400 miraculous. 8896 07:12:22,320 --> 07:12:27,200 What made PayPal different was the 8897 07:12:24,400 --> 07:12:29,040 culture, the religion of extreme 8898 07:12:27,200 --> 07:12:32,080 meritocracy. 8899 07:12:29,040 --> 07:12:34,000 The hiring criteria were brutally 8900 07:12:32,080 --> 07:12:37,840 specific. 8901 07:12:34,000 --> 07:12:39,520 One raw intelligence, high test scores, 8902 07:12:37,840 --> 07:12:42,400 ability to solve [music] complex 8903 07:12:39,520 --> 07:12:46,638 puzzles, proof you could think better 8904 07:12:42,400 --> 07:12:49,680 than everyone else. Two, intensity. 8905 07:12:46,638 --> 07:12:51,600 Are you willing to work 100hour weeks? 8906 07:12:49,680 --> 07:12:54,400 Are you willing to sacrifice everything 8907 07:12:51,600 --> 07:12:58,080 else in your life for the mission? 8908 07:12:54,400 --> 07:13:00,878 Three, missionary zeal. Do you actually 8909 07:12:58,080 --> 07:13:03,600 believe we are changing the world or are 8910 07:13:00,878 --> 07:13:06,878 you here for a paycheck? 8911 07:13:03,600 --> 07:13:09,040 Four, loyalty to the tribe. Will you 8912 07:13:06,878 --> 07:13:12,400 protect the other members? Will you put 8913 07:13:09,040 --> 07:13:14,878 the group above yourself? 8914 07:13:12,400 --> 07:13:19,200 Average employee age at PayPal [music] 8915 07:13:14,878 --> 07:13:21,280 25 years old. Average work week 80 to 8916 07:13:19,200 --> 07:13:23,600 100 hours. 8917 07:13:21,280 --> 07:13:26,160 Office culture libertarian, 8918 07:13:23,600 --> 07:13:28,000 anti-regulation, contrarian, 8919 07:13:26,160 --> 07:13:30,080 anti-establishment. 8920 07:13:28,000 --> 07:13:32,558 They called themselves the mafia 8921 07:13:30,080 --> 07:13:36,120 specifically because loyalty mattered 8922 07:13:32,558 --> 07:13:36,120 more than credentials, 8923 07:13:37,360 --> 07:13:42,878 more than degrees, more than previous 8924 07:13:39,520 --> 07:13:45,760 experience. Theel's operating principle 8925 07:13:42,878 --> 07:13:48,080 stated explicitly and repeatedly, 8926 07:13:45,760 --> 07:13:50,320 talented people do not want to work with 8927 07:13:48,080 --> 07:13:53,840 people who are less talented than they 8928 07:13:50,320 --> 07:13:55,520 are. So every new hire must be more 8929 07:13:53,840 --> 07:13:58,320 talented than [music] the average 8930 07:13:55,520 --> 07:14:02,000 current employee. Otherwise, we are 8931 07:13:58,320 --> 07:14:04,718 diluting the talent pool. This created a 8932 07:14:02,000 --> 07:14:08,080 self-reinforcing escalation, [music] 8933 07:14:04,718 --> 07:14:10,798 an arms race of hiring. Every new person 8934 07:14:08,080 --> 07:14:14,320 raised the bar. The standards became 8935 07:14:10,798 --> 07:14:17,520 higher and higher. Only the absolute 8936 07:14:14,320 --> 07:14:20,798 best could get in. And once you were in, 8937 07:14:17,520 --> 07:14:22,958 you were family. But here is what most 8938 07:14:20,798 --> 07:14:24,878 people forget about PayPal. [music] 8939 07:14:22,958 --> 07:14:27,920 Here is the original vision that got 8940 07:14:24,878 --> 07:14:29,840 erased from the mythology. PayPal was 8941 07:14:27,920 --> 07:14:32,878 supposed [music] to destroy the Federal 8942 07:14:29,840 --> 07:14:35,520 Reserve. It was supposed to undermine 8943 07:14:32,878 --> 07:14:38,000 state [music] control of currency. That 8944 07:14:35,520 --> 07:14:40,718 was the actual mission. That was why 8945 07:14:38,000 --> 07:14:43,840 Peter Theel, the libertarian ideologue, 8946 07:14:40,718 --> 07:14:46,400 cared so much. 8947 07:14:43,840 --> 07:14:49,280 The original vision laid out in Theo's 8948 07:14:46,400 --> 07:14:51,200 founding documents create a new digital 8949 07:14:49,280 --> 07:14:52,718 currency outside government [music] 8950 07:14:51,200 --> 07:14:55,440 control. 8951 07:14:52,718 --> 07:14:56,878 Enable true peer-to-peer transactions 8952 07:14:55,440 --> 07:14:58,478 globally without [music] state 8953 07:14:56,878 --> 07:15:00,798 intermediaries. 8954 07:14:58,478 --> 07:15:03,680 Undermine the state monopoly on money 8955 07:15:00,798 --> 07:15:06,240 creation and management. 8956 07:15:03,680 --> 07:15:08,478 build the financial infrastructure for a 8957 07:15:06,240 --> 07:15:10,958 stateless society. 8958 07:15:08,478 --> 07:15:11,760 What actually happened? To become 8959 07:15:10,958 --> 07:15:14,400 mainstream, [music] 8960 07:15:11,760 --> 07:15:16,400 to actually scale, PayPal had to 8961 07:15:14,400 --> 07:15:18,558 compromise every single founding 8962 07:15:16,400 --> 07:15:21,680 principle. They had to integrate [music] 8963 07:15:18,558 --> 07:15:24,638 with the traditional banking system, the 8964 07:15:21,680 --> 07:15:26,878 enemy. They had to comply with know your 8965 07:15:24,638 --> 07:15:28,400 customer and anti-moneyaundering 8966 07:15:26,878 --> 07:15:30,558 regulations, 8967 07:15:28,400 --> 07:15:32,400 government control. 8968 07:15:30,558 --> 07:15:35,120 They had to partner with credit card 8969 07:15:32,400 --> 07:15:36,320 companies. The old system they wanted to 8970 07:15:35,120 --> 07:15:38,638 destroy. [music] 8971 07:15:36,320 --> 07:15:42,160 They had to get licensed in every single 8972 07:15:38,638 --> 07:15:43,360 state. Regulatory capture. They had to 8973 07:15:42,160 --> 07:15:46,240 report suspicious [music] 8974 07:15:43,360 --> 07:15:49,520 transactions to federal authorities. 8975 07:15:46,240 --> 07:15:53,120 Surveillance. By 2002, PayPal [music] 8976 07:15:49,520 --> 07:15:55,680 was regulated exactly like a bank. 8977 07:15:53,120 --> 07:15:58,320 Partnered with banks, dependent on banks 8978 07:15:55,680 --> 07:16:00,958 for all core functionalities. The 8979 07:15:58,320 --> 07:16:03,440 libertarian revolution had become just 8980 07:16:00,958 --> 07:16:05,760 another fintech company playing by the 8981 07:16:03,440 --> 07:16:08,080 government's rules. 8982 07:16:05,760 --> 07:16:10,160 The learned the most important lesson of 8983 07:16:08,080 --> 07:16:11,680 his career from PayPal's failure to 8984 07:16:10,160 --> 07:16:14,558 achieve its [music] revolutionary 8985 07:16:11,680 --> 07:16:17,920 mission. You cannot disrupt the system 8986 07:16:14,558 --> 07:16:20,000 from inside the system. If you want to 8987 07:16:17,920 --> 07:16:21,760 change [music] the rules, you cannot ask 8988 07:16:20,000 --> 07:16:24,718 permission from the people who wrote 8989 07:16:21,760 --> 07:16:29,166 them. This lesson would shape everything 8990 07:16:24,718 --> 07:16:30,558 he did next. Palanteer, Facebook, 8991 07:16:29,166 --> 07:16:34,406 [music] 8992 07:16:30,558 --> 07:16:36,638 his political investments, everything. 8993 07:16:34,406 --> 07:16:39,760 [music] The PayPal acquisition was not 8994 07:16:36,638 --> 07:16:42,558 an ending. It was a beginning, the start 8995 07:16:39,760 --> 07:16:44,240 of something much larger. The pattern 8996 07:16:42,558 --> 07:16:47,440 that emerged [music] over the next 20 8997 07:16:44,240 --> 07:16:50,320 years. PayPal veterans leave and start 8998 07:16:47,440 --> 07:16:52,746 new companies in different sectors. 8999 07:16:50,320 --> 07:16:55,920 Theel invests early as angel investor 9000 07:16:52,746 --> 07:16:58,000 [music] or through founders fund. PayPal 9001 07:16:55,920 --> 07:17:00,878 mafia members join each other's boards 9002 07:16:58,000 --> 07:17:02,638 of directors. Cross investment between 9003 07:17:00,878 --> 07:17:05,840 all their venture funds [music] creates 9004 07:17:02,638 --> 07:17:08,958 alignment. Preferential access to deal 9005 07:17:05,840 --> 07:17:10,320 flow because of network relationships. 9006 07:17:08,958 --> 07:17:13,680 Shared intelligence [music] about 9007 07:17:10,320 --> 07:17:15,600 markets, technology, and opportunities. 9008 07:17:13,680 --> 07:17:17,760 Real examples of how the network 9009 07:17:15,600 --> 07:17:20,958 compounds. Reed [music] Hoffman 9010 07:17:17,760 --> 07:17:22,718 introduces Theel to Mark Zuckerberg in 9011 07:17:20,958 --> 07:17:24,878 2004. 9012 07:17:22,718 --> 07:17:26,718 Theel invests $500,000 [music] 9013 07:17:24,878 --> 07:17:30,400 in Facebook, 9014 07:17:26,718 --> 07:17:32,638 eventually makes over $1 billion. 9015 07:17:30,400 --> 07:17:35,040 Roloff Bother [music] joins Sequoia 9016 07:17:32,638 --> 07:17:37,200 Capital and invests in multiple 9017 07:17:35,040 --> 07:17:39,840 Theelbacked companies, creating 9018 07:17:37,200 --> 07:17:41,872 reciprocal deal flows. 9019 07:17:39,840 --> 07:17:42,400 David Saxs hosts high dollar fundraisers 9020 07:17:41,872 --> 07:17:45,360 [music] 9021 07:17:42,400 --> 07:17:49,638 for Theo's political candidates, mixing 9022 07:17:45,360 --> 07:17:49,638 business and politics seamlessly. 9023 07:17:49,760 --> 07:17:55,360 Max Levchim provides seed capital for 9024 07:17:52,352 --> 07:17:57,920 [music] Palanteer and serves as advisor 9025 07:17:55,360 --> 07:18:00,160 lending credibility. 9026 07:17:57,920 --> 07:18:04,160 This network effect multiplier is 9027 07:18:00,160 --> 07:18:07,200 precisely how Theel turned $55 million 9028 07:18:04,160 --> 07:18:09,680 from PayPal [music] into over $5 billion 9029 07:18:07,200 --> 07:18:13,040 in net worth today. 9030 07:18:09,680 --> 07:18:15,520 The PayPal mafia is not a cute nickname. 9031 07:18:13,040 --> 07:18:17,280 It is not a metaphor. It is the most 9032 07:18:15,520 --> 07:18:20,400 successful organized business [music] 9033 07:18:17,280 --> 07:18:22,558 cartel in Silicon Valley history. 9034 07:18:20,400 --> 07:18:24,878 A self-reinforcing [music] network of 9035 07:18:22,558 --> 07:18:27,120 wealth, power, and influence that has 9036 07:18:24,878 --> 07:18:30,718 shaped the entire technology industry 9037 07:18:27,120 --> 07:18:36,040 for two decades. And Peter Theal sits at 9038 07:18:30,718 --> 07:18:36,040 the center of it all. The Godfather. 9039 07:18:41,360 --> 07:18:46,062 After PayPal, Peter Theel was a man with 9040 07:18:44,320 --> 07:18:49,440 a billion dollars and a dangerous 9041 07:18:46,062 --> 07:18:51,520 [music] secret. While other investors 9042 07:18:49,440 --> 07:18:54,240 were looking at spreadsheets and profit 9043 07:18:51,520 --> 07:18:55,760 margins, Theel was looking at the human 9044 07:18:54,240 --> 07:18:58,558 soul [music] through the eyes of his 9045 07:18:55,760 --> 07:19:01,840 mentor, Renee Gerard. 9046 07:18:58,558 --> 07:19:05,280 Gerard taught him a terrifying truth. 9047 07:19:01,840 --> 07:19:08,400 Human beings don't know what they want. 9048 07:19:05,280 --> 07:19:11,120 We are mimemetic creatures. We don't 9049 07:19:08,400 --> 07:19:13,680 desire things for themselves. We desire 9050 07:19:11,120 --> 07:19:16,160 them because other people desire them. 9051 07:19:13,680 --> 07:19:19,120 We are copy machines disguised as 9052 07:19:16,160 --> 07:19:21,760 individuals. 9053 07:19:19,120 --> 07:19:24,478 August 2004. 9054 07:19:21,760 --> 07:19:27,760 Facebook has been online for exactly 6 9055 07:19:24,478 --> 07:19:30,240 months. It started as a Harvard dorm 9056 07:19:27,760 --> 07:19:33,200 project and has now expanded to several 9057 07:19:30,240 --> 07:19:36,478 college campuses. 9058 07:19:33,200 --> 07:19:40,320 The metrics that Zuckerberg shows Theel 9059 07:19:36,478 --> 07:19:43,680 total registered users 200,000 9060 07:19:40,320 --> 07:19:47,280 almost entirely college students 9061 07:19:43,680 --> 07:19:48,878 daily active user rate 70 to 80% 9062 07:19:47,280 --> 07:19:51,680 engagement 9063 07:19:48,878 --> 07:19:55,840 unprecedented in web [music] services 9064 07:19:51,680 --> 07:19:58,878 revenue $0 no business model yet 9065 07:19:55,840 --> 07:20:00,638 valuation Zuckerberg is asking for $5 9066 07:19:58,878 --> 07:20:02,478 million 9067 07:20:00,638 --> 07:20:05,040 every single professional venture 9068 07:20:02,478 --> 07:20:07,840 capitalist in Silicon Valley has passed 9069 07:20:05,040 --> 07:20:10,958 on Facebook. Every major firm has looked 9070 07:20:07,840 --> 07:20:13,040 into it and said no. The reasons they 9071 07:20:10,958 --> 07:20:17,120 gave it is just a [music] college 9072 07:20:13,040 --> 07:20:18,958 directory. Limited market. Fster has 9073 07:20:17,120 --> 07:20:22,000 already 5 million users [music] 9074 07:20:18,958 --> 07:20:24,558 and is the leader in social networking. 9075 07:20:22,000 --> 07:20:27,520 MySpace is dominant with 8 million users 9076 07:20:24,558 --> 07:20:29,554 and growing fast. There is no obvious 9077 07:20:27,520 --> 07:20:30,558 business model or revenue stream. 9078 07:20:29,554 --> 07:20:33,120 [music] 9079 07:20:30,558 --> 07:20:38,000 Mark Zuckerberg is too young, too 9080 07:20:33,120 --> 07:20:40,320 inexperienced, too risky as a founder. 9081 07:20:38,000 --> 07:20:42,878 Peter Theel saw something completely 9082 07:20:40,320 --> 07:20:45,040 different, something that had nothing to 9083 07:20:42,878 --> 07:20:47,440 do with technology. 9084 07:20:45,040 --> 07:20:50,478 The had spent years studying Renee 9085 07:20:47,440 --> 07:20:52,000 Gerard's mimemetic theory, the 9086 07:20:50,478 --> 07:20:54,000 philosophical framework that [music] 9087 07:20:52,000 --> 07:20:58,000 would shape his entire investment 9088 07:20:54,000 --> 07:21:00,160 approach, the core idea, humans do not 9089 07:20:58,000 --> 07:21:02,080 have original desires. 9090 07:21:00,160 --> 07:21:05,120 We desire what other people [music] 9091 07:21:02,080 --> 07:21:08,558 desire. We learn what to want by 9092 07:21:05,120 --> 07:21:13,120 watching other people want. Desire is 9093 07:21:08,558 --> 07:21:14,958 imitative. Desire is social. Desire is 9094 07:21:13,120 --> 07:21:17,120 mimemetic. 9095 07:21:14,958 --> 07:21:19,120 When Theel looked at Facebook, he did 9096 07:21:17,120 --> 07:21:21,920 not see a technology platform for 9097 07:21:19,120 --> 07:21:24,320 connecting friends. He saw something far 9098 07:21:21,920 --> 07:21:27,520 more powerful. He saw the perfect 9099 07:21:24,320 --> 07:21:30,558 mimemetic desire machine. the insight 9100 07:21:27,520 --> 07:21:32,436 that made Theel invest. Social networks 9101 07:21:30,558 --> 07:21:34,638 do not create value by connecting 9102 07:21:32,436 --> 07:21:37,920 [music] people. That is not where the 9103 07:21:34,638 --> 07:21:40,080 money is. The money is in comparison. 9104 07:21:37,920 --> 07:21:43,200 The money is in making people compare 9105 07:21:40,080 --> 07:21:45,920 themselves to each other constantly. 9106 07:21:43,200 --> 07:21:48,718 You see your friend's vacation photos, 9107 07:21:45,920 --> 07:21:51,040 you want a better vacation. You see 9108 07:21:48,718 --> 07:21:53,680 someone's job promotion announcement, 9109 07:21:51,040 --> 07:21:56,020 you want higher status. You see 9110 07:21:53,680 --> 07:21:58,958 someone's relationship photos, you want 9111 07:21:56,020 --> 07:22:00,798 [music] romance. 9112 07:21:58,958 --> 07:22:04,080 You see someone getting likes and 9113 07:22:00,798 --> 07:22:06,958 comments, you want validation. 9114 07:22:04,080 --> 07:22:10,320 You see someone's perfect life, you feel 9115 07:22:06,958 --> 07:22:13,120 your own life is inadequate. 9116 07:22:10,320 --> 07:22:16,958 Facebook was not selling connections. 9117 07:22:13,120 --> 07:22:19,280 Facebook was selling envy. And envy the 9118 07:22:16,958 --> 07:22:21,520 understood from Gerard is the most 9119 07:22:19,280 --> 07:22:22,798 powerful [music] economic force in human 9120 07:22:21,520 --> 07:22:26,000 history. 9121 07:22:22,798 --> 07:22:28,798 The desire for what others have. They 9122 07:22:26,000 --> 07:22:32,080 need to keep up. The fear of being left 9123 07:22:28,798 --> 07:22:35,520 behind. Infinite envy creates infinite 9124 07:22:32,080 --> 07:22:37,840 demand. Infinite demand creates infinite 9125 07:22:35,520 --> 07:22:40,320 value. 9126 07:22:37,840 --> 07:22:44,240 September 2004. 9127 07:22:40,320 --> 07:22:46,160 Peter Theal wires $500,000 to Facebook 9128 07:22:44,240 --> 07:22:50,400 incororated. 9129 07:22:46,160 --> 07:22:53,280 The deal terms 10.2% equity ownership in 9130 07:22:50,400 --> 07:22:55,040 the company. A board seat giving him 9131 07:22:53,280 --> 07:22:56,718 governance rights and inside 9132 07:22:55,040 --> 07:22:59,600 information. 9133 07:22:56,718 --> 07:23:02,958 Right of first refusal on all future 9134 07:22:59,600 --> 07:23:05,760 funding rounds. Post money valuation of 9135 07:23:02,958 --> 07:23:07,840 exactly $5 million. 9136 07:23:05,760 --> 07:23:11,120 Mark Zuckerberg's reaction after the 9137 07:23:07,840 --> 07:23:14,080 deal closed. This guy actually gets it. 9138 07:23:11,120 --> 07:23:17,120 He understands what we are building. 9139 07:23:14,080 --> 07:23:19,040 Silicon Valley's reaction. Peter Theal 9140 07:23:17,120 --> 07:23:22,160 just threw away half a million dollars 9141 07:23:19,040 --> 07:23:24,718 on a college kid's website. This will be 9142 07:23:22,160 --> 07:23:27,040 his biggest failure. 9143 07:23:24,718 --> 07:23:29,280 What happened next rewrote the history 9144 07:23:27,040 --> 07:23:34,638 of venture capital. 9145 07:23:29,280 --> 07:23:36,878 2004 end of year. 200,000 users grew to 9146 07:23:34,638 --> 07:23:40,958 1 million users. 9147 07:23:36,878 --> 07:23:44,478 Five times growth in 4 months. 2005 9148 07:23:40,958 --> 07:23:50,000 1 million users becomes 5.5 million 9149 07:23:44,478 --> 07:23:54,878 users. 2006 5.5 million users becomes 12 9150 07:23:50,000 --> 07:23:59,680 million users. 2007 12 million users 9151 07:23:54,878 --> 07:24:02,558 exploded to 50 million users. 2008 50 9152 07:23:59,680 --> 07:24:04,400 million users doubles to 100 million 9153 07:24:02,558 --> 07:24:05,920 users. 9154 07:24:04,400 --> 07:24:09,520 2009 9155 07:24:05,920 --> 07:24:12,878 100 million users becomes 350 million 9156 07:24:09,520 --> 07:24:16,000 users. growth rate. The user base was 9157 07:24:12,878 --> 07:24:18,400 doubling every 6 to9 months for five 9158 07:24:16,000 --> 07:24:20,958 consecutive years. 9159 07:24:18,400 --> 07:24:23,680 This growth curve had never been seen 9160 07:24:20,958 --> 07:24:27,200 before in business history. Not even 9161 07:24:23,680 --> 07:24:29,680 close. As Facebook grew, its valuation 9162 07:24:27,200 --> 07:24:32,000 grew and Peter Theel's stake grew with 9163 07:24:29,680 --> 07:24:34,160 it. 9164 07:24:32,000 --> 07:24:37,920 May 2005, 9165 07:24:34,160 --> 07:24:40,798 Axel Partners invests $12.7 million at 9166 07:24:37,920 --> 07:24:44,558 $100 million valuation. 9167 07:24:40,798 --> 07:24:48,080 Field's 10.2% stake is now worth $10.2 9168 07:24:44,558 --> 07:24:50,718 million. He has achieved 20 times return 9169 07:24:48,080 --> 07:24:54,240 in 9 months. 9170 07:24:50,718 --> 07:24:57,280 April 2006, Greylock Partners and 9171 07:24:54,240 --> 07:25:01,280 Meritech Capital [music] invest $27.5 9172 07:24:57,280 --> 07:25:04,718 million at $500 million valuation. 9173 07:25:01,280 --> 07:25:07,040 Theel stake is now worth $51 million, 9174 07:25:04,718 --> 07:25:08,718 100 times return on his original 9175 07:25:07,040 --> 07:25:11,200 investment. 9176 07:25:08,718 --> 07:25:15,760 October 2007, 9177 07:25:11,200 --> 07:25:19,440 Microsoft invests $240 million, valuing 9178 07:25:15,760 --> 07:25:23,840 Facebook at $15 billion. 9179 07:25:19,440 --> 07:25:28,400 Theel stake is now worth $1.5 billion, a 9180 07:25:23,840 --> 07:25:31,360 300,000 times return in 3 years. 9181 07:25:28,400 --> 07:25:33,760 2009 through 2011, 9182 07:25:31,360 --> 07:25:36,878 multiple private sales and secondary 9183 07:25:33,760 --> 07:25:38,718 transactions value Facebook at $50 9184 07:25:36,878 --> 07:25:41,680 billion. 9185 07:25:38,718 --> 07:25:45,120 The stake, if he had held everything, 9186 07:25:41,680 --> 07:25:48,478 would be worth $5 billion. 9187 07:25:45,120 --> 07:25:50,878 May 18th, 2012. 9188 07:25:48,478 --> 07:25:55,760 Facebook goes public at a market 9189 07:25:50,878 --> 07:25:58,400 capitalization of $14 billion. 9190 07:25:55,760 --> 07:26:01,600 But Theel does not hold everything. He 9191 07:25:58,400 --> 07:26:04,878 is strategic. He is tactical. He takes 9192 07:26:01,600 --> 07:26:08,878 profits. At the initial public offering, 9193 07:26:04,878 --> 07:26:10,638 Theel sells $640 million worth of shares 9194 07:26:08,878 --> 07:26:12,878 immediately. 9195 07:26:10,638 --> 07:26:15,040 Over the following 6 months, he sells 9196 07:26:12,878 --> 07:26:17,440 the remainder of his stake in carefully 9197 07:26:15,040 --> 07:26:19,680 timed transactions. 9198 07:26:17,440 --> 07:26:24,400 Total cash realized from the Facebook 9199 07:26:19,680 --> 07:26:27,680 investment approximately $1 billion. 9200 07:26:24,400 --> 07:26:29,680 Initial investment in August 2004, 9201 07:26:27,680 --> 07:26:33,760 $500,000. 9202 07:26:29,680 --> 07:26:35,520 Total cash realized by end of 2012, $1 9203 07:26:33,760 --> 07:26:40,320 billion. 9204 07:26:35,520 --> 07:26:42,160 Total return 2,000 times in 8 years. 9205 07:26:40,320 --> 07:26:44,000 This is the single greatest venture 9206 07:26:42,160 --> 07:26:47,840 capital return in recorded [music] 9207 07:26:44,000 --> 07:26:51,040 history. Nothing else comes close. But 9208 07:26:47,840 --> 07:26:53,440 here is the twist. The haunting decision 9209 07:26:51,040 --> 07:26:56,398 that [music] Theel himself admits keeps 9210 07:26:53,440 --> 07:26:57,920 him awake at night. Selling was a 9211 07:26:56,398 --> 07:27:00,638 mistake. 9212 07:26:57,920 --> 07:27:01,840 If Peter Theal had held his original 9213 07:27:00,638 --> 07:27:04,718 10.2% [music] 9214 07:27:01,840 --> 07:27:07,120 stake and had never sold a single share, 9215 07:27:04,718 --> 07:27:08,320 that stake at Facebook's peak market 9216 07:27:07,120 --> 07:27:12,240 capitalization [music] 9217 07:27:08,320 --> 07:27:14,160 in 2021 would have been worth $12 9218 07:27:12,240 --> 07:27:17,280 billion. 9219 07:27:14,160 --> 07:27:20,320 $12 [music] billion. 9220 07:27:17,280 --> 07:27:22,478 He left $100 billion on the table by 9221 07:27:20,320 --> 07:27:24,718 selling early. 9222 07:27:22,478 --> 07:27:26,638 The himself admitted this publicly, 9223 07:27:24,718 --> 07:27:29,440 saying, "The [music] mistake was not 9224 07:27:26,638 --> 07:27:31,520 investing in Facebook. The mistake was 9225 07:27:29,440 --> 07:27:34,240 selling Facebook. 9226 07:27:31,520 --> 07:27:36,398 I should have held longer. I should have 9227 07:27:34,240 --> 07:27:39,680 believed [music] more. It is the single 9228 07:27:36,398 --> 07:27:41,440 most expensive decision of his life." 9229 07:27:39,680 --> 07:27:43,920 Years 9230 07:27:41,440 --> 07:27:46,958 later in a Stanford lecture, Theel 9231 07:27:43,920 --> 07:27:50,478 explained his actual investment thesis, 9232 07:27:46,958 --> 07:27:52,080 the real reason he invested. I did not 9233 07:27:50,478 --> 07:27:54,000 invest in Facebook because [music] I 9234 07:27:52,080 --> 07:27:56,638 thought social networks were going to be 9235 07:27:54,000 --> 07:27:59,120 big. I invested because I understood 9236 07:27:56,638 --> 07:28:01,920 that humans will always want to be more 9237 07:27:59,120 --> 07:28:04,718 like their peers. That desire is 9238 07:28:01,920 --> 07:28:06,878 infinite. [music] It never stops. It 9239 07:28:04,718 --> 07:28:08,798 only intensifies. 9240 07:28:06,878 --> 07:28:12,080 An infinite [music] desire creates 9241 07:28:08,798 --> 07:28:14,558 infinite value. The mimemetic theory 9242 07:28:12,080 --> 07:28:16,798 made him a billionaire. 9243 07:28:14,558 --> 07:28:20,398 The mimemetic theory also made him 9244 07:28:16,798 --> 07:28:23,760 terrified of what he had helped create. 9245 07:28:20,398 --> 07:28:26,240 A machine that weaponizes human envy. A 9246 07:28:23,760 --> 07:28:28,160 system that profits from making people 9247 07:28:26,240 --> 07:28:30,798 feel inadequate. 9248 07:28:28,160 --> 07:28:33,360 An algorithm that amplifies the worst 9249 07:28:30,798 --> 07:28:35,600 aspects of human nature. 9250 07:28:33,360 --> 07:28:38,478 Peter Theal helped build the most 9251 07:28:35,600 --> 07:28:42,000 powerful behavior modification system in 9252 07:28:38,478 --> 07:28:45,878 human history. And then he cashed out 9253 07:28:42,000 --> 07:28:45,878 for a billion dollars. 9254 07:28:52,240 --> 07:28:59,680 2003 Peter Theel [music] has a problem. 9255 07:28:56,398 --> 07:29:02,398 It is the CIA's problem, but they think 9256 07:28:59,680 --> 07:29:04,390 the [music] can solve it. His PayPal 9257 07:29:02,398 --> 07:29:06,878 anti-fraud algorithms have become 9258 07:29:04,390 --> 07:29:09,680 [music] so sophisticated at detecting 9259 07:29:06,878 --> 07:29:11,840 patterns in financial transactions at 9260 07:29:09,680 --> 07:29:14,638 finding terrorists trying to move money 9261 07:29:11,840 --> 07:29:18,320 through [music] banking systems that the 9262 07:29:14,638 --> 07:29:20,080 CIA venture capital arm in QEL requested 9263 07:29:18,320 --> 07:29:22,958 a meeting. 9264 07:29:20,080 --> 07:29:25,440 The pitch from the CIA, can you build 9265 07:29:22,958 --> 07:29:28,080 what you built for [music] PayPal but 9266 07:29:25,440 --> 07:29:31,840 for national security? Can you find 9267 07:29:28,080 --> 07:29:33,760 terrorists the way you found fraudsters? 9268 07:29:31,840 --> 07:29:36,160 May 2003, 9269 07:29:33,760 --> 07:29:38,558 Peter Theel co-founds Palunteer 9270 07:29:36,160 --> 07:29:40,160 Technologies with an unusual group of 9271 07:29:38,558 --> 07:29:43,120 co-founders. 9272 07:29:40,160 --> 07:29:46,558 The founding team, Alex Karp, chief 9273 07:29:43,120 --> 07:29:48,958 executive officer, Stanford Law Degree, 9274 07:29:46,558 --> 07:29:51,600 philosophy, PhD from Frankfurt 9275 07:29:48,958 --> 07:29:54,240 University in Germany, former human 9276 07:29:51,600 --> 07:29:55,760 rights lawyer who once worked on refugee 9277 07:29:54,240 --> 07:29:58,320 cases. 9278 07:29:55,760 --> 07:30:00,320 an extremely odd choice to run a company 9279 07:29:58,320 --> 07:30:02,478 that will become the most powerful 9280 07:30:00,320 --> 07:30:04,000 surveillance technology provider on 9281 07:30:02,478 --> 07:30:06,558 Earth. 9282 07:30:04,000 --> 07:30:09,680 Nathan Gettings, chief technology 9283 07:30:06,558 --> 07:30:12,638 officer. PayPal's lead security 9284 07:30:09,680 --> 07:30:15,600 engineer. Brilliant programmer. Joe 9285 07:30:12,638 --> 07:30:18,080 Lonsdale, a Stamford undergraduate 9286 07:30:15,600 --> 07:30:21,280 student, barely [music] 20 years old, 9287 07:30:18,080 --> 07:30:23,840 one of the first Theel fellows. Steven 9288 07:30:21,280 --> 07:30:26,558 Cohen, PayPal's chief security 9289 07:30:23,840 --> 07:30:28,958 architect. The person who actually built 9290 07:30:26,558 --> 07:30:31,840 the fraud detection [music] algorithms. 9291 07:30:28,958 --> 07:30:34,000 Initial funding $2 million 9292 07:30:31,840 --> 07:30:37,600 entirely from Peter Theel's personal 9293 07:30:34,000 --> 07:30:39,760 capital. No outside investors yet. This 9294 07:30:37,600 --> 07:30:42,398 is his project. 9295 07:30:39,760 --> 07:30:44,958 The mission statement. Build software 9296 07:30:42,398 --> 07:30:47,520 that can find patterns in massive data 9297 07:30:44,958 --> 07:30:49,520 sets from disperate incompatible 9298 07:30:47,520 --> 07:30:52,558 sources. 9299 07:30:49,520 --> 07:30:54,878 The kind of data that if intelligency 9300 07:30:52,558 --> 07:30:57,840 agencies had been able to analyze it 9301 07:30:54,878 --> 07:31:00,798 properly could have prevented September 9302 07:30:57,840 --> 07:31:04,398 11th, 2001. 9303 07:31:00,798 --> 07:31:06,798 The company name Palunteer named after 9304 07:31:04,398 --> 07:31:08,798 the seeing stones in Lord of the Rings, 9305 07:31:06,798 --> 07:31:10,958 the magical orbs that allow their 9306 07:31:08,798 --> 07:31:13,920 possessors to see anything happening 9307 07:31:10,958 --> 07:31:17,360 anywhere in Middle Earth. Even the name 9308 07:31:13,920 --> 07:31:18,878 revealed the ambition total information 9309 07:31:17,360 --> 07:31:23,718 awareness. 9310 07:31:18,878 --> 07:31:23,718 the ability to see everything. 9311 07:31:23,920 --> 07:31:28,492 2005, 9312 07:31:25,440 --> 07:31:29,040 the CIA's venture capital arm in CQEL 9313 07:31:28,492 --> 07:31:31,920 [music] 9314 07:31:29,040 --> 07:31:34,798 invest $2 million in Palanteer's series 9315 07:31:31,920 --> 07:31:37,520 A funding round. This was not just 9316 07:31:34,798 --> 07:31:38,320 money. This was validation from the 9317 07:31:37,520 --> 07:31:41,200 intelligence [music] 9318 07:31:38,320 --> 07:31:43,440 community, a stamp of approval from the 9319 07:31:41,200 --> 07:31:45,200 most secretive, most paranoid 9320 07:31:43,440 --> 07:31:46,798 organization in the US [music] 9321 07:31:45,200 --> 07:31:50,638 government. 9322 07:31:46,798 --> 07:31:51,840 Initial contract value undisclosed. 9323 07:31:50,638 --> 07:31:54,958 Government intelligence [music] 9324 07:31:51,840 --> 07:31:57,840 contracts are classified by law, but 9325 07:31:54,958 --> 07:32:00,718 industry analysts estimate the first CIA 9326 07:31:57,840 --> 07:32:02,240 contracts were worth 5 to 10 million 9327 07:32:00,718 --> 07:32:05,440 annually. 9328 07:32:02,240 --> 07:32:08,638 The product was called Palunteer Gotham. 9329 07:32:05,440 --> 07:32:11,760 The name itself was significant. Gotham, 9330 07:32:08,638 --> 07:32:14,000 the dark city that needs Batman. The 9331 07:32:11,760 --> 07:32:17,600 city that needs surveillance to fight 9332 07:32:14,000 --> 07:32:19,600 crime. core technical capabilities. 9333 07:32:17,600 --> 07:32:22,320 Integrate data from dozens of 9334 07:32:19,600 --> 07:32:24,320 incompatible government databases that 9335 07:32:22,320 --> 07:32:27,040 were never designed to communicate with 9336 07:32:24,320 --> 07:32:29,680 each other. From hidden connections 9337 07:32:27,040 --> 07:32:33,600 between people, places, financial 9338 07:32:29,680 --> 07:32:36,240 transactions, communications metadata, 9339 07:32:33,600 --> 07:32:38,478 visualize networks of relationships in 9340 07:32:36,240 --> 07:32:40,478 ways human analysts could understand 9341 07:32:38,478 --> 07:32:42,798 intuitively. 9342 07:32:40,478 --> 07:32:45,040 Predict future behavior and likely 9343 07:32:42,798 --> 07:32:48,000 attack patterns based on historical 9344 07:32:45,040 --> 07:32:50,878 data. Specific use cases for 9345 07:32:48,000 --> 07:32:53,840 intelligence agencies. Track terrorist 9346 07:32:50,878 --> 07:32:55,840 cells across multiple countries. Map 9347 07:32:53,840 --> 07:32:58,000 drug trafficking routes from production 9348 07:32:55,840 --> 07:33:00,160 to distribution. 9349 07:32:58,000 --> 07:33:03,120 Identify money laundering networks 9350 07:33:00,160 --> 07:33:05,600 moving funds for organized crime. 9351 07:33:03,120 --> 07:33:07,840 Predict insurgent attacks in Iraq and 9352 07:33:05,600 --> 07:33:11,520 Afghanistan based on pattern 9353 07:33:07,840 --> 07:33:15,280 recognition. It worked. The software 9354 07:33:11,520 --> 07:33:18,398 actually worked. By 2006, Palanteer 9355 07:33:15,280 --> 07:33:19,760 software was being actively used in Iraq 9356 07:33:18,398 --> 07:33:24,958 for counterinsurgency [music] 9357 07:33:19,760 --> 07:33:27,200 operations and in IED attack prediction. 9358 07:33:24,958 --> 07:33:30,160 Afghanistan for predicting Taliban 9359 07:33:27,200 --> 07:33:33,760 leadership networks. Langley, Virginia 9360 07:33:30,160 --> 07:33:36,478 at CIA headquarters for threat analysis. 9361 07:33:33,760 --> 07:33:40,680 FBI field officers nationwide for 9362 07:33:36,478 --> 07:33:40,680 domestic terrorism investigation. 9363 07:33:40,718 --> 07:33:46,878 Early revenue growth told the story of 9364 07:33:42,878 --> 07:33:49,680 Palunteers expanding reach. 2005 9365 07:33:46,878 --> 07:33:52,558 $3 million in revenue. Government 9366 07:33:49,680 --> 07:33:56,000 contracts [music] only. 2006 $10 9367 07:33:52,558 --> 07:33:58,000 million. 2007 9368 07:33:56,000 --> 07:34:02,000 $25 million. [music] 9369 07:33:58,000 --> 07:34:07,520 2008 $50 million. First commercial 9370 07:34:02,000 --> 07:34:13,200 clients added 2010 $150 million [music] 9371 07:34:07,520 --> 07:34:15,360 2012 $400 million. By 2012, Palanteer 9372 07:34:13,200 --> 07:34:18,160 had achieved something extremely rare 9373 07:34:15,360 --> 07:34:20,160 for a high- growth technology company. 9374 07:34:18,160 --> 07:34:22,240 Profitability. 9375 07:34:20,160 --> 07:34:24,878 They were actually making money, [music] 9376 07:34:22,240 --> 07:34:28,478 not just burning venture capital. 9377 07:34:24,878 --> 07:34:32,478 Customer revenue breakdown in 2012. 9378 07:34:28,478 --> 07:34:35,040 Government contracts, 60% of revenue, 9379 07:34:32,478 --> 07:34:39,520 $240 million. 9380 07:34:35,040 --> 07:34:42,240 Commercial clients, 40% of revenue, $160 9381 07:34:39,520 --> 07:34:44,718 million. 9382 07:34:42,240 --> 07:34:47,360 May the 1st, 2011. [music] 9383 07:34:44,718 --> 07:34:50,798 Palanteer Software plays a role in the 9384 07:34:47,360 --> 07:34:53,360 operation that kills Osama bin Laden. A 9385 07:34:50,798 --> 07:34:55,680 role that remains partially classified, 9386 07:34:53,360 --> 07:34:57,200 but has been confirmed by multiple 9387 07:34:55,680 --> 07:35:00,000 sources. 9388 07:34:57,200 --> 07:35:02,320 How Palanteer contributed. Palanteer 9389 07:35:00,000 --> 07:35:04,718 Gotham integrated dozens of different 9390 07:35:02,320 --> 07:35:07,120 intelligence sources. 9391 07:35:04,718 --> 07:35:10,320 CIA human intelligence on career 9392 07:35:07,120 --> 07:35:12,878 networks. NSA signal intelligence 9393 07:35:10,320 --> 07:35:15,760 including phone metadata and email 9394 07:35:12,878 --> 07:35:18,878 communications patterns. 9395 07:35:15,760 --> 07:35:21,760 National Geospatial Intelligence Agency 9396 07:35:18,878 --> 07:35:23,280 satellite imagery of potential compound 9397 07:35:21,760 --> 07:35:25,760 locations. 9398 07:35:23,280 --> 07:35:27,760 historical pattern analysis of previous 9399 07:35:25,760 --> 07:35:30,558 highv value target operations in 9400 07:35:27,760 --> 07:35:32,638 Pakistan. 9401 07:35:30,558 --> 07:35:34,958 The system identified patterns and 9402 07:35:32,638 --> 07:35:37,440 connections that human analysts working 9403 07:35:34,958 --> 07:35:40,638 with separate databases that did not 9404 07:35:37,440 --> 07:35:42,878 communicate had missed. It narrowed the 9405 07:35:40,638 --> 07:35:47,360 search area and helped confirm the 9406 07:35:42,878 --> 07:35:49,440 identity of the Abotabad compound. 9407 07:35:47,360 --> 07:35:52,398 When asked about Palanteer's role in the 9408 07:35:49,440 --> 07:35:55,680 bin Laden operation, Theo gave carefully 9409 07:35:52,398 --> 07:35:58,398 worded response. I cannot comment on 9410 07:35:55,680 --> 07:36:01,440 specific operations or specific clients 9411 07:35:58,398 --> 07:36:05,120 due to classification requirements, but 9412 07:36:01,440 --> 07:36:07,360 I will say this. Tools that help protect 9413 07:36:05,120 --> 07:36:10,478 American lives and help intelligence 9414 07:36:07,360 --> 07:36:13,920 professionals do their jobs better. That 9415 07:36:10,478 --> 07:36:16,160 is our mission. 9416 07:36:13,920 --> 07:36:19,120 This single operation, this single 9417 07:36:16,160 --> 07:36:21,120 success legitimized Palanteer's entire 9418 07:36:19,120 --> 07:36:23,520 value proposition to the national 9419 07:36:21,120 --> 07:36:26,398 security establishment. 9420 07:36:23,520 --> 07:36:28,878 After bin Laden, the contracts poured 9421 07:36:26,398 --> 07:36:31,600 in. 9422 07:36:28,878 --> 07:36:34,558 After the bin Laden success, Palanteer's 9423 07:36:31,600 --> 07:36:39,120 government business exploded. Revenue 9424 07:36:34,558 --> 07:36:44,478 growth from 2012 to 2015. 9425 07:36:39,120 --> 07:36:46,398 2012, $400 million in revenue. 2013, 9426 07:36:44,478 --> 07:36:47,920 $600 million. [music] 9427 07:36:46,398 --> 07:36:53,280 2014, 9428 07:36:47,920 --> 07:36:55,760 $900 million. 2015, $1.5 billion in 9429 07:36:53,280 --> 07:36:59,398 revenue. Major new contracts [music] 9430 07:36:55,760 --> 07:36:59,398 announced publicly. 9431 07:37:00,798 --> 07:37:08,240 US Department of Defense, $222 million 9432 07:37:05,360 --> 07:37:10,000 for a 3-year data integration platform 9433 07:37:08,240 --> 07:37:14,000 contract. 9434 07:37:10,000 --> 07:37:17,120 US Army, $800 million for comprehensive 9435 07:37:14,000 --> 07:37:19,280 data platform modernization across all 9436 07:37:17,120 --> 07:37:23,440 army systems, 9437 07:37:19,280 --> 07:37:26,080 US Special Operations Command, $444 9438 07:37:23,440 --> 07:37:27,840 million for targeting and intelligence 9439 07:37:26,080 --> 07:37:31,360 fusion, 9440 07:37:27,840 --> 07:37:33,680 Department of Homeland Security, $240 9441 07:37:31,360 --> 07:37:36,798 million for border security and 9442 07:37:33,680 --> 07:37:39,200 immigration enforcement systems. 9443 07:37:36,798 --> 07:37:41,760 Palanteer had become the single most 9444 07:37:39,200 --> 07:37:43,680 important software company in the entire 9445 07:37:41,760 --> 07:37:45,280 US defense and intelligence 9446 07:37:43,680 --> 07:37:47,520 establishment, 9447 07:37:45,280 --> 07:37:50,718 more important than traditional defense 9448 07:37:47,520 --> 07:37:52,718 contractors, more embedded in classified 9449 07:37:50,718 --> 07:37:55,360 operations. 9450 07:37:52,718 --> 07:37:57,360 Simultaneously, Palunteer launched a 9451 07:37:55,360 --> 07:37:58,160 commercial product called Palunteer 9452 07:37:57,360 --> 07:38:00,958 Foundry [music] 9453 07:37:58,160 --> 07:38:04,080 for private sector clients. The sales 9454 07:38:00,958 --> 07:38:07,520 pitch to corporate America. Your company 9455 07:38:04,080 --> 07:38:10,558 has exactly the same problem as the CIA. 9456 07:38:07,520 --> 07:38:13,680 Too much data, too many incompatible 9457 07:38:10,558 --> 07:38:15,600 systems, not enough [music] insight. We 9458 07:38:13,680 --> 07:38:18,718 can help you find the patterns you are 9459 07:38:15,600 --> 07:38:22,958 missing. Major commercial clients and 9460 07:38:18,718 --> 07:38:27,360 estimated contract values. 9461 07:38:22,958 --> 07:38:29,600 JP Morgan Chase, over $100 million, 9462 07:38:27,360 --> 07:38:32,958 fraud detection and financial crime 9463 07:38:29,600 --> 07:38:35,840 prevention. Morgan Stanley over $50 9464 07:38:32,958 --> 07:38:40,638 million risk management and regulatory 9465 07:38:35,840 --> 07:38:42,798 compliance. Airbus over $75 million 9466 07:38:40,638 --> 07:38:45,520 supply chain optimization and 9467 07:38:42,798 --> 07:38:49,680 manufacturing analytics. 9468 07:38:45,520 --> 07:38:52,320 Merc Pharmaceuticals over $60 million 9469 07:38:49,680 --> 07:38:55,200 drug discovery analytics and clinical 9470 07:38:52,320 --> 07:38:59,760 trial data integration. 9471 07:38:55,200 --> 07:39:03,600 BP over $80 million oil field production 9472 07:38:59,760 --> 07:39:06,878 optimization and predictive maintenance. 9473 07:39:03,600 --> 07:39:08,718 Commercial revenue growth from 2015 to 9474 07:39:06,878 --> 07:39:12,000 2020. 9475 07:39:08,718 --> 07:39:15,680 In 2015, they got $600 million 9476 07:39:12,000 --> 07:39:20,160 commercial revenue. By 2016, the number 9477 07:39:15,680 --> 07:39:22,798 was around $800 billion. In 2017, they 9478 07:39:20,160 --> 07:39:26,240 reached $1.1 billion in commercial 9479 07:39:22,798 --> 07:39:30,160 revenue, and it became their peak year. 9480 07:39:26,240 --> 07:39:32,398 2018 made them hit the $750 million 9481 07:39:30,160 --> 07:39:35,958 mark, a temporary decline due to 9482 07:39:32,398 --> 07:39:35,958 customer churn. 9483 07:39:36,000 --> 07:39:41,760 In 2019, revenue was around $745 9484 07:39:40,160 --> 07:39:45,680 million, 9485 07:39:41,760 --> 07:39:49,680 and by 2020, they reached $1.1 billion. 9486 07:39:45,680 --> 07:39:52,798 Again, this recovery was driven by COVID 9487 07:39:49,680 --> 07:39:54,958 analytics contracts. Palanteer had 9488 07:39:52,798 --> 07:39:58,320 created a business model with two 9489 07:39:54,958 --> 07:40:00,160 enormous locked in customer bases, the 9490 07:39:58,320 --> 07:40:04,360 US government and the largest 9491 07:40:00,160 --> 07:40:04,360 corporations [music] in the world. 9492 07:40:05,920 --> 07:40:11,040 But Palanteer's work, especially for 9493 07:40:08,240 --> 07:40:14,398 government agencies, attracted intense 9494 07:40:11,040 --> 07:40:17,440 controversy and moral criticism. 9495 07:40:14,398 --> 07:40:21,520 In 2019, they secured a contract with 9496 07:40:17,440 --> 07:40:24,080 ICE for $49 million. The purpose of the 9497 07:40:21,520 --> 07:40:26,478 contract was enforcement and removal 9498 07:40:24,080 --> 07:40:29,360 operations [music] systems, 9499 07:40:26,478 --> 07:40:31,840 meaning a software used to identify, 9500 07:40:29,360 --> 07:40:34,558 track, and process undocumented 9501 07:40:31,840 --> 07:40:36,798 immigrants [music] for deportation. 9502 07:40:34,558 --> 07:40:39,520 This project came with a controversy 9503 07:40:36,798 --> 07:40:41,440 attached. The software was used during 9504 07:40:39,520 --> 07:40:44,160 the family separation [music] policy at 9505 07:40:41,440 --> 07:40:47,760 the southern border. Children separated 9506 07:40:44,160 --> 07:40:49,920 from their parents. Families torn apart. 9507 07:40:47,760 --> 07:40:52,478 Palanteer software helped make it 9508 07:40:49,920 --> 07:40:54,718 operationally [music] possible. Hundreds 9509 07:40:52,478 --> 07:40:56,398 of Palunteer employees signed an 9510 07:40:54,718 --> 07:41:00,718 internal letter demanding the [music] 9511 07:40:56,398 --> 07:41:03,040 company cancel the ICE contract. 9512 07:41:00,718 --> 07:41:05,600 They argued the company was enabling 9513 07:41:03,040 --> 07:41:09,280 human rights [music] abuses. The and 9514 07:41:05,600 --> 07:41:11,840 Karp's response, absolute refusal. The 9515 07:41:09,280 --> 07:41:14,398 contract would continue. 9516 07:41:11,840 --> 07:41:16,240 Alex Kart gave a public statement saying 9517 07:41:14,398 --> 07:41:18,398 that they had chosen [music] sides and 9518 07:41:16,240 --> 07:41:20,240 that the company supported American 9519 07:41:18,398 --> 07:41:22,718 institutions. 9520 07:41:20,240 --> 07:41:25,040 But this was not the only controversy 9521 07:41:22,718 --> 07:41:28,398 Palanteer [music] has faced. 9522 07:41:25,040 --> 07:41:31,600 Palanteer worked alongside the NYPD with 9523 07:41:28,398 --> 07:41:36,558 a contract estimated between 50 and $100 9524 07:41:31,600 --> 07:41:38,878 billion. The mission predictive policy. 9525 07:41:36,558 --> 07:41:41,440 They were asked to use historical crime 9526 07:41:38,878 --> 07:41:43,542 data to predict where future crimes will 9527 07:41:41,440 --> 07:41:46,240 occur and who is likely to commit 9528 07:41:43,542 --> 07:41:48,478 [music] them. The controversy civil 9529 07:41:46,240 --> 07:41:51,840 rights groups argued that system 9530 07:41:48,478 --> 07:41:54,958 perpetuated racial bias. Minority 9531 07:41:51,840 --> 07:41:56,558 neighborhoods were flagged as high risk. 9532 07:41:54,958 --> 07:41:58,878 Innocent people were [music] put under 9533 07:41:56,558 --> 07:42:01,280 surveillance based on algorithmic 9534 07:41:58,878 --> 07:42:04,878 predictions. 9535 07:42:01,280 --> 07:42:07,360 Joe Lndale, Palanteer co-founder, had 9536 07:42:04,878 --> 07:42:08,958 made a personal investment in Cambridge 9537 07:42:07,360 --> 07:42:11,360 Analytica. 9538 07:42:08,958 --> 07:42:13,760 Multiple Palanteer employees on their 9539 07:42:11,360 --> 07:42:18,280 own time helped Cambridge Analytica 9540 07:42:13,760 --> 07:42:18,280 build data integration models. 9541 07:42:18,398 --> 07:42:23,440 Both companies use similar approaches to 9542 07:42:21,120 --> 07:42:24,958 data harvesting and psychological 9543 07:42:23,440 --> 07:42:26,798 profiling. 9544 07:42:24,958 --> 07:42:29,680 When the connection was exposed by 9545 07:42:26,798 --> 07:42:32,718 journalists, Palanteer claimed there was 9546 07:42:29,680 --> 07:42:36,000 no institutional relationship, just 9547 07:42:32,718 --> 07:42:38,320 coincidental personal connections. 9548 07:42:36,000 --> 07:42:42,398 But the damage to Palanteer's reputation 9549 07:42:38,320 --> 07:42:44,798 was done. The had built the panoptagon, 9550 07:42:42,398 --> 07:42:47,280 the allseeing eye of corporate and 9551 07:42:44,798 --> 07:42:50,718 government surveillance. 9552 07:42:47,280 --> 07:42:53,920 September the 30th, 2020. 9553 07:42:50,718 --> 07:42:55,840 After 17 years as a private company, one 9554 07:42:53,920 --> 07:42:58,558 of the longest periods of private 9555 07:42:55,840 --> 07:43:01,520 operation for any major tech company, 9556 07:42:58,558 --> 07:43:04,558 Palanteer finally goes public through a 9557 07:43:01,520 --> 07:43:07,440 direct listing. 9558 07:43:04,558 --> 07:43:10,320 They went public at $10 per share and 9559 07:43:07,440 --> 07:43:14,000 their market capitalization at market 9560 07:43:10,320 --> 07:43:17,280 open was $16 billion. 9561 07:43:14,000 --> 07:43:19,120 By the first day, shares were down 5%. 9562 07:43:17,280 --> 07:43:20,718 The stock was initially a 9563 07:43:19,120 --> 07:43:22,798 disappointment. 9564 07:43:20,718 --> 07:43:24,798 Investors were skeptical of the business 9565 07:43:22,798 --> 07:43:27,440 model, worried about customer 9566 07:43:24,798 --> 07:43:29,520 concentration, concerned about the 9567 07:43:27,440 --> 07:43:32,638 controversy. 9568 07:43:29,520 --> 07:43:35,680 But then COVID 19 created massive new 9569 07:43:32,638 --> 07:43:39,600 demand for Palanteer's capabilities. 9570 07:43:35,680 --> 07:43:42,000 2020 to 2021, Palanteer wins enormous 9571 07:43:39,600 --> 07:43:45,120 pandemic related government contracts 9572 07:43:42,000 --> 07:43:47,280 with governments across the world. The 9573 07:43:45,120 --> 07:43:50,558 pandemic proved that governments needed 9574 07:43:47,280 --> 07:43:53,600 Palanteer and the market responded. 9575 07:43:50,558 --> 07:43:59,520 By late 2021, Palanteer stock had 9576 07:43:53,600 --> 07:44:02,000 exploded, $29 per share at 190% gain 9577 07:43:59,520 --> 07:44:03,680 from the direct listing price. Market 9578 07:44:02,000 --> 07:44:07,240 capitalization 9579 07:44:03,680 --> 07:44:07,240 $60 billion. 9580 07:44:08,398 --> 07:44:15,360 Peter Theal stake approximately 7% 9581 07:44:12,000 --> 07:44:18,160 ownership worth $4.2 billion at the 9582 07:44:15,360 --> 07:44:20,558 peak. 2022 9583 07:44:18,160 --> 07:44:24,000 the tech crash hits Palanteer brutally 9584 07:44:20,558 --> 07:44:28,080 hard. Stock prices crash to $6 per 9585 07:44:24,000 --> 07:44:31,760 share, down 8% from the peak. Market cap 9586 07:44:28,080 --> 07:44:33,840 collapses to $13 billion. 9587 07:44:31,760 --> 07:44:39,680 The paper wealth from Palanteer 9588 07:44:33,840 --> 07:44:42,362 evaporates. Billions gone. 2023 to 2024, 9589 07:44:39,680 --> 07:44:43,040 the AI boom creates new opportunity. 9590 07:44:42,362 --> 07:44:45,440 [music] 9591 07:44:43,040 --> 07:44:46,878 Palanteer markets itself as the AI 9592 07:44:45,440 --> 07:44:48,478 platform for governments and 9593 07:44:46,878 --> 07:44:51,360 enterprises. 9594 07:44:48,478 --> 07:44:56,000 And they get major new contract wins. 9595 07:44:51,360 --> 07:44:57,840 The US Army invested $463 million for AI 9596 07:44:56,000 --> 07:45:01,120 powered [music] battlefield analytics 9597 07:44:57,840 --> 07:45:03,600 and decision support systems. 9598 07:45:01,120 --> 07:45:08,320 Palanteer stock recovered 9599 07:45:03,600 --> 07:45:10,958 25 to 30 per share by 2024. 9600 07:45:08,320 --> 07:45:13,920 As of 2024, Peter Theel's current 9601 07:45:10,958 --> 07:45:16,398 Palanteer holdings are approximately 7% 9602 07:45:13,920 --> 07:45:20,478 of all shares with a current value 9603 07:45:16,398 --> 07:45:25,080 ranging from 3.8 to $4.5 billion 9604 07:45:20,478 --> 07:45:25,080 depending on daily stock price. 9605 07:45:26,638 --> 07:45:33,280 This makes Palunteer Field's single 9606 07:45:29,840 --> 07:45:35,840 largest source of personal wealth. In 9607 07:45:33,280 --> 07:45:37,840 2024, Palanteer's financial [music] 9608 07:45:35,840 --> 07:45:40,718 performance was divided between 9609 07:45:37,840 --> 07:45:44,398 government and commercial revenue. The 9610 07:45:40,718 --> 07:45:47,600 company's net income was $2.5 billion 9611 07:45:44,398 --> 07:45:49,520 annually. And as big as the number is, 9612 07:45:47,600 --> 07:45:52,080 this might represent a future problem 9613 07:45:49,520 --> 07:45:54,638 for the company. If government budget 9614 07:45:52,080 --> 07:45:56,160 cuts happen, Palanteer is extremely 9615 07:45:54,638 --> 07:45:58,398 vulnerable. 9616 07:45:56,160 --> 07:46:01,520 Their entire business model depends on 9617 07:45:58,398 --> 07:46:03,680 continued government spending. 9618 07:46:01,520 --> 07:46:05,200 Here is Peter Theel's fundamental 9619 07:46:03,680 --> 07:46:07,200 contradiction. 9620 07:46:05,200 --> 07:46:09,120 The paradox at the heart of everything 9621 07:46:07,200 --> 07:46:11,360 he has built. He claims to be a 9622 07:46:09,120 --> 07:46:14,638 libertarian who values individual 9623 07:46:11,360 --> 07:46:16,320 freedom above all else. A man who 9624 07:46:14,638 --> 07:46:18,718 believes government power should be 9625 07:46:16,320 --> 07:46:21,920 minimal. A man who wrote that freedom 9626 07:46:18,718 --> 07:46:24,478 and democracy are incompatible. 9627 07:46:21,920 --> 07:46:27,120 Yet he built the most powerful private 9628 07:46:24,478 --> 07:46:29,920 surveillance technology company in human 9629 07:46:27,120 --> 07:46:31,680 history. A company that gives [music] 9630 07:46:29,920 --> 07:46:35,120 governments and corporations 9631 07:46:31,680 --> 07:46:38,398 unprecedented ability to monitor, track, 9632 07:46:35,120 --> 07:46:40,798 predict, and control human behavior. 9633 07:46:38,398 --> 07:46:43,760 Palanteer's technical capabilities 9634 07:46:40,798 --> 07:46:46,160 include realtime tracking of individuals 9635 07:46:43,760 --> 07:46:49,160 across multiple data sources and 9636 07:46:46,160 --> 07:46:49,160 databases. 9637 07:46:49,760 --> 07:46:54,398 Predictive behavioral modeling that 9638 07:46:52,398 --> 07:46:57,680 forecasts what people will do before 9639 07:46:54,398 --> 07:47:00,080 they do it. Network analysis that maps 9640 07:46:57,680 --> 07:47:03,520 every person you have ever contacted 9641 07:47:00,080 --> 07:47:05,440 through any medium. Complete integration 9642 07:47:03,520 --> 07:47:08,160 of financial records. [music] 9643 07:47:05,440 --> 07:47:11,120 communication metadata, location 9644 07:47:08,160 --> 07:47:14,958 history, and social relationship data 9645 07:47:11,120 --> 07:47:17,520 into a single unified profile. 9646 07:47:14,958 --> 07:47:19,840 Field's defense of this contradiction 9647 07:47:17,520 --> 07:47:24,080 was explaining that the alternative to 9648 07:47:19,840 --> 07:47:26,638 Palanteer is not no surveillance. 9649 07:47:24,080 --> 07:47:28,878 The alternative is worse surveillance 9650 07:47:26,638 --> 07:47:31,840 performed by incompetent government 9651 07:47:28,878 --> 07:47:35,958 bureaucrats using decades old technology 9652 07:47:31,840 --> 07:47:35,958 that does not work properly. 9653 07:47:37,440 --> 07:47:44,000 The critics's response was obvious. They 9654 07:47:40,398 --> 07:47:48,160 told Theo he had built the panopticon, 9655 07:47:44,000 --> 07:47:50,240 the architecture of total surveillance. 9656 07:47:48,160 --> 07:47:52,478 A system allowing governments around the 9657 07:47:50,240 --> 07:47:55,440 world to use their citizens information 9658 07:47:52,478 --> 07:47:57,920 to control them, not a system to protect 9659 07:47:55,440 --> 07:48:00,080 them, said the critics. 9660 07:47:57,920 --> 07:48:02,638 Palanteer now operates in [music] dozens 9661 07:48:00,080 --> 07:48:05,200 of countries worldwide. the United 9662 07:48:02,638 --> 07:48:08,878 States, the United Kingdom, Germany, 9663 07:48:05,200 --> 07:48:11,040 France, Australia, and even Japan. 9664 07:48:08,878 --> 07:48:14,080 The company has some controversial 9665 07:48:11,040 --> 07:48:17,040 international clients, some confirmed, 9666 07:48:14,080 --> 07:48:20,558 some alleged, but the total estimated 9667 07:48:17,040 --> 07:48:25,040 value of all global contracts lifetime, 9668 07:48:20,558 --> 07:48:27,840 over $10 billion in contract value. 9669 07:48:25,040 --> 07:48:30,958 Palanteer is Peter Theel's most 9670 07:48:27,840 --> 07:48:34,080 important company. Not because of its 9671 07:48:30,958 --> 07:48:36,478 valuation, though that is substantial. 9672 07:48:34,080 --> 07:48:40,160 Not because of its revenue, though that 9673 07:48:36,478 --> 07:48:42,478 is significant. Palanteer is important 9674 07:48:40,160 --> 07:48:45,440 because it reveals the truth about 9675 07:48:42,478 --> 07:48:48,080 Theo's worldview. It is the bridge 9676 07:48:45,440 --> 07:48:51,760 between his libertarian philosophy and 9677 07:48:48,080 --> 07:48:54,718 his authoritarian reality. He claims to 9678 07:48:51,760 --> 07:48:57,440 want freedom from government control. 9679 07:48:54,718 --> 07:48:59,600 But Palanteer gives governments 9680 07:48:57,440 --> 07:49:02,240 unprecedented control over their 9681 07:48:59,600 --> 07:49:05,280 citizens. The resolution of this 9682 07:49:02,240 --> 07:49:08,638 apparent contradiction, Peter Theel 9683 07:49:05,280 --> 07:49:12,718 believes in freedom for the elite and 9684 07:49:08,638 --> 07:49:14,958 surveillance for everyone else. 9685 07:49:12,718 --> 07:49:18,240 In his vision of the world, there are 9686 07:49:14,958 --> 07:49:20,398 rulers and there are the ruled. There 9687 07:49:18,240 --> 07:49:23,120 are the people who make the decisions 9688 07:49:20,398 --> 07:49:25,680 and the people who are managed. 9689 07:49:23,120 --> 07:49:29,040 Palanteer is the enforcement mechanism 9690 07:49:25,680 --> 07:49:32,320 for that hierarchy. The technology that 9691 07:49:29,040 --> 07:49:34,558 ensures the rulers can see everything. 9692 07:49:32,320 --> 07:49:37,600 The system that makes resistance 9693 07:49:34,558 --> 07:49:40,718 impossible because privacy no longer 9694 07:49:37,600 --> 07:49:44,000 exists. And Peter Theal sits at the 9695 07:49:40,718 --> 07:49:47,120 center of that eye, watching the world, 9696 07:49:44,000 --> 07:49:50,840 seeing everything. The architect of the 9697 07:49:47,120 --> 07:49:50,840 surveillance state. 9698 07:49:53,280 --> 07:49:59,040 In 2016, Peter Theal made an investment 9699 07:49:57,040 --> 07:50:02,058 that every other major technology 9700 07:49:59,040 --> 07:50:02,058 investor avoided. [music] 9701 07:50:02,398 --> 07:50:06,590 While his peers in Silicon Valley were 9702 07:50:04,718 --> 07:50:09,280 contributing millions to the opposing 9703 07:50:06,590 --> 07:50:12,160 [music] campaign, Theel wrote a check 9704 07:50:09,280 --> 07:50:14,958 for $1.25 million to [music] Donald 9705 07:50:12,160 --> 07:50:17,070 Trump's presidential campaign. 9706 07:50:14,958 --> 07:50:17,120 This was not ideology. 9707 07:50:17,070 --> 07:50:21,360 >> [music] 9708 07:50:17,120 --> 07:50:24,478 >> This was portfolio diversification. 9709 07:50:21,360 --> 07:50:29,120 Phil has always invested in contrarian 9710 07:50:24,478 --> 07:50:31,840 positions. When everyone zigs, he zags. 9711 07:50:29,120 --> 07:50:33,840 When consensus forms in one direction, 9712 07:50:31,840 --> 07:50:37,280 he looks for [music] asymmetric 9713 07:50:33,840 --> 07:50:39,200 opportunities in the other. The 2006 9714 07:50:37,280 --> 07:50:41,760 donation [music] gave him something 9715 07:50:39,200 --> 07:50:44,558 money usually cannot buy in Silicon 9716 07:50:41,760 --> 07:50:47,920 Valley. Direct access [music] to 9717 07:50:44,558 --> 07:50:51,440 executive power. the return on that 9718 07:50:47,920 --> 07:50:54,080 $1.25 million investment, 9719 07:50:51,440 --> 07:50:57,520 a seat on the presidential transition 9720 07:50:54,080 --> 07:51:00,718 team, input on federal technology 9721 07:50:57,520 --> 07:51:03,520 policy, direct communication channels to 9722 07:51:00,718 --> 07:51:06,904 the White House, credibility as a 9723 07:51:03,520 --> 07:51:06,904 Washington power broker, [music] 9724 07:51:07,040 --> 07:51:11,440 and most measurably, Palanteer's 9725 07:51:09,680 --> 07:51:14,878 government contracts increased [music] 9726 07:51:11,440 --> 07:51:17,200 substantially during this period. 9727 07:51:14,878 --> 07:51:19,920 But feels most significant political 9728 07:51:17,200 --> 07:51:22,000 investments [music] came in the 2022 9729 07:51:19,920 --> 07:51:25,760 midterm elections. 9730 07:51:22,000 --> 07:51:29,280 Two candidates, both former employees, 9731 07:51:25,760 --> 07:51:31,200 both running for United States Senate. 9732 07:51:29,280 --> 07:51:34,080 The financial commitment was 9733 07:51:31,200 --> 07:51:36,478 unprecedented in scale. 9734 07:51:34,080 --> 07:51:38,638 Vance had worked at Theel's venture 9735 07:51:36,478 --> 07:51:41,680 capital firm before writing his 9736 07:51:38,638 --> 07:51:43,760 best-selling memoir. Field's total 9737 07:51:41,680 --> 07:51:48,718 financial commitment 9738 07:51:43,760 --> 07:51:52,638 direct campaign contribution $15 million 9739 07:51:48,718 --> 07:51:56,398 super PAC expenditures $5 million 9740 07:51:52,638 --> 07:51:59,120 combined investment $20 million. 9741 07:51:56,398 --> 07:52:01,440 This set a [music] record as the largest 9742 07:51:59,120 --> 07:52:03,440 single donor contribution to an 9743 07:52:01,440 --> 07:52:07,360 individual Senate campaign in [music] 9744 07:52:03,440 --> 07:52:11,200 American history. The outcome, Vance won 9745 07:52:07,360 --> 07:52:13,520 by six percentage points. Masters had 9746 07:52:11,200 --> 07:52:15,600 worked directly for Theel as chief 9747 07:52:13,520 --> 07:52:17,120 operating [music] officer at Theel 9748 07:52:15,600 --> 07:52:19,120 Capital. 9749 07:52:17,120 --> 07:52:21,440 Theel's financial commitment to his 9750 07:52:19,120 --> 07:52:25,280 campaign was a combined investment of 9751 07:52:21,440 --> 07:52:28,398 $20 million, but unlike Vance, Masters 9752 07:52:25,280 --> 07:52:31,680 lost by 5 percentage points. 9753 07:52:28,398 --> 07:52:34,558 Theel's total 2022 midterm investment 9754 07:52:31,680 --> 07:52:37,440 was over $40 million in two Senate 9755 07:52:34,558 --> 07:52:39,440 races. Two different candidates that 9756 07:52:37,440 --> 07:52:41,520 would have allowed him to be in direct 9757 07:52:39,440 --> 07:52:44,878 touch with power at different chambers 9758 07:52:41,520 --> 07:52:46,878 and stages. For context, the average 9759 07:52:44,878 --> 07:52:50,478 competitive Senate race costs 9760 07:52:46,878 --> 07:52:52,398 approximately $10 million total. Peter 9761 07:52:50,478 --> 07:52:56,440 Theal invested four times that [music] 9762 07:52:52,398 --> 07:52:56,440 amount on two races. 9763 07:52:57,120 --> 07:53:03,840 It's July 2024. JD Vance is selected as 9764 07:53:01,680 --> 07:53:06,718 the Republican vice presidential 9765 07:53:03,840 --> 07:53:09,360 candidate. From a pure investment 9766 07:53:06,718 --> 07:53:12,320 analysis perspective, this transforms 9767 07:53:09,360 --> 07:53:14,798 the return profile on Theo's $20 million 9768 07:53:12,320 --> 07:53:17,120 commitment. He has considered the 9769 07:53:14,798 --> 07:53:21,040 potential financial implications if this 9770 07:53:17,120 --> 07:53:23,600 ticket wins and he gets access to 9771 07:53:21,040 --> 07:53:26,958 executive branch decisionmaking for 8 9772 07:53:23,600 --> 07:53:30,398 years. influence over federal contract 9773 07:53:26,958 --> 07:53:33,360 allocation across multiple agencies. 9774 07:53:30,398 --> 07:53:37,600 Input on technology regulation affecting 9775 07:53:33,360 --> 07:53:39,920 the portfolio companies. 9776 07:53:37,600 --> 07:53:42,000 If we consider what's the estimated 9777 07:53:39,920 --> 07:53:43,440 return on investment for Palanteer's 9778 07:53:42,000 --> 07:53:46,718 government business, [music] 9779 07:53:43,440 --> 07:53:50,398 what we see is current annual government 9780 07:53:46,718 --> 07:53:53,120 revenue of $1.5 billion. 9781 07:53:50,398 --> 07:53:56,398 potential additional contract value over 9782 07:53:53,120 --> 07:53:59,398 eight years conservatively 5 to10 9783 07:53:56,398 --> 07:53:59,398 billion 9784 07:53:59,440 --> 07:54:06,080 and other defense companies in the 9785 07:54:02,478 --> 07:54:07,760 network potential 3 to5 billion in 9786 07:54:06,080 --> 07:54:10,240 contracts 9787 07:54:07,760 --> 07:54:12,878 regulatory treatment of cryptocurrency 9788 07:54:10,240 --> 07:54:16,760 holdings value [music] potentially in 9789 07:54:12,878 --> 07:54:16,760 tens of billions. 9790 07:54:18,478 --> 07:54:24,558 The theoretical return of those 20 9791 07:54:21,040 --> 07:54:27,920 million invested is potentially 15 to 20 9792 07:54:24,558 --> 07:54:31,920 billion captured across the portfolio. 9793 07:54:27,920 --> 07:54:35,600 That represents a potential of 750 to 9794 07:54:31,920 --> 07:54:37,280 1,000 times return. By comparison, 9795 07:54:35,600 --> 07:54:40,240 Theel's Facebook investment [music] 9796 07:54:37,280 --> 07:54:42,718 returned 2,000 times. 9797 07:54:40,240 --> 07:54:48,080 To sum it up, the complete political 9798 07:54:42,718 --> 07:54:50,398 spending of the from 2016 to 2022 is 70 9799 07:54:48,080 --> 07:54:53,360 to $80 million. 9800 07:54:50,398 --> 07:54:56,638 For context, Amazon spends 20 million 9801 07:54:53,360 --> 07:54:58,878 annually on lobbying. Meta spends 20 9802 07:54:56,638 --> 07:55:01,680 million annual on lobbying. [music] 9803 07:54:58,878 --> 07:55:05,280 Google spends 12 million annually on 9804 07:55:01,680 --> 07:55:07,280 lobbying. Field's approach is different. 9805 07:55:05,280 --> 07:55:09,920 Rather than ongoing lobbying 9806 07:55:07,280 --> 07:55:12,718 expenditures, he makes concentrated 9807 07:55:09,920 --> 07:55:15,920 investments in individual candidates who 9808 07:55:12,718 --> 07:55:18,920 potentially provide access for years or 9809 07:55:15,920 --> 07:55:18,920 decades. 9810 07:55:18,958 --> 07:55:24,000 It is the venture capital model applied 9811 07:55:21,440 --> 07:55:26,958 to politics. Make early stage 9812 07:55:24,000 --> 07:55:29,440 investments in promising candidates. 9813 07:55:26,958 --> 07:55:32,718 Provide sufficient capital to help them 9814 07:55:29,440 --> 07:55:35,280 win. Capture value through long-term 9815 07:55:32,718 --> 07:55:37,920 relationships and access. 9816 07:55:35,280 --> 07:55:40,718 The candidates Theel has supported now 9817 07:55:37,920 --> 07:55:43,200 serve on key committees. 9818 07:55:40,718 --> 07:55:44,798 Technology regulation, defense 9819 07:55:43,200 --> 07:55:47,680 appropriations, 9820 07:55:44,798 --> 07:55:50,478 intelligence oversight, banking and 9821 07:55:47,680 --> 07:55:52,718 financial services. 9822 07:55:50,478 --> 07:55:55,200 Precisely the committees that oversee 9823 07:55:52,718 --> 07:55:57,280 industries where the has billions 9824 07:55:55,200 --> 07:56:00,398 invested and where he can [music] use 9825 07:55:57,280 --> 07:56:03,040 some privileged information. 9826 07:56:00,398 --> 07:56:08,160 Is political investment a good use of 9827 07:56:03,040 --> 07:56:11,280 capital? The mathematics suggest yes 70 9828 07:56:08,160 --> 07:56:14,718 to 80 million represents less than 1% of 9829 07:56:11,280 --> 07:56:16,718 the's net worth. The potential return if 9830 07:56:14,718 --> 07:56:19,520 facets translate to favorable [music] 9831 07:56:16,718 --> 07:56:23,120 treatment for portfolio companies could 9832 07:56:19,520 --> 07:56:25,520 be worth billions. Even with a 50% 9833 07:56:23,120 --> 07:56:28,398 success rate, the expected value is 9834 07:56:25,520 --> 07:56:31,520 positive by orders of magnitude. 9835 07:56:28,398 --> 07:56:35,520 Investment 70 to 80 million over 8 9836 07:56:31,520 --> 07:56:38,798 years. Potential value captured 15 to 30 9837 07:56:35,520 --> 07:56:45,280 billion across portfolio. Expected 9838 07:56:38,798 --> 07:56:47,840 return 200 to 400 times invested capital 9839 07:56:45,280 --> 07:56:51,040 that rivals the best venture capital 9840 07:56:47,840 --> 07:56:54,320 returns in history. Peter Theel is not 9841 07:56:51,040 --> 07:56:57,320 playing politics. He is optimizing his 9842 07:56:54,320 --> 07:56:57,320 portfolio. 9843 07:56:58,638 --> 07:57:04,558 Chapter 7. The final exit. 9844 07:57:02,478 --> 07:57:07,360 Peter Theal has spent his life betting 9845 07:57:04,558 --> 07:57:09,920 on the future, building it, funding it, 9846 07:57:07,360 --> 07:57:13,840 accelerating it. But there is one 9847 07:57:09,920 --> 07:57:18,638 frontier he refuses to accept as fixed. 9848 07:57:13,840 --> 07:57:21,200 Death. To him, mortality is not destiny. 9849 07:57:18,638 --> 07:57:23,520 It is an engineering problem waiting for 9850 07:57:21,200 --> 07:57:25,680 a breakthrough. Unlike every other 9851 07:57:23,520 --> 07:57:28,878 system he has challenged, he believes 9852 07:57:25,680 --> 07:57:31,520 this one too can be redesigned. 9853 07:57:28,878 --> 07:57:34,638 While others plan for retirement, Theel 9854 07:57:31,520 --> 07:57:37,200 funds longevity labs. While governments 9855 07:57:34,638 --> 07:57:38,718 plan for decades, he thinks in 9856 07:57:37,200 --> 07:57:40,240 centuries. 9857 07:57:38,718 --> 07:57:42,878 If time is the ultimate [music] 9858 07:57:40,240 --> 07:57:46,080 constraint on power, then extending life 9859 07:57:42,878 --> 07:57:49,520 is the ultimate leverage. At the edge of 9860 07:57:46,080 --> 07:57:52,240 the world, he built a refuge. Far from 9861 07:57:49,520 --> 07:57:56,798 political centers, far from social 9862 07:57:52,240 --> 07:57:59,120 unrest, close only to time. In Silicon 9863 07:57:56,798 --> 07:58:02,718 Valley, there is a dark joke shared 9864 07:57:59,120 --> 07:58:04,878 quietly among founders and investors. 9865 07:58:02,718 --> 07:58:07,360 How many billionaires does it take to 9866 07:58:04,878 --> 07:58:10,398 buy a country? 9867 07:58:07,360 --> 07:58:13,798 Just one, if he is smart enough to get 9868 07:58:10,398 --> 07:58:13,798 there first. 9869 07:58:14,160 --> 07:58:18,798 He invested in digital currencies that 9870 07:58:16,478 --> 07:58:20,878 governments cannot print. In 9871 07:58:18,798 --> 07:58:23,760 surveillance systems that see what 9872 07:58:20,878 --> 07:58:26,240 others cannot. In political candidates 9873 07:58:23,760 --> 07:58:28,878 who might shape the rules. In 9874 07:58:26,240 --> 07:58:32,558 technologies that might outlive biology 9875 07:58:28,878 --> 07:58:36,200 itself. Not to save the world, to 9876 07:58:32,558 --> 07:58:36,200 outlast it. 9877 07:58:38,160 --> 07:58:43,680 What began as a contingency plan for a 9878 07:58:40,798 --> 07:58:46,478 few has become an unspoken strategy 9879 07:58:43,680 --> 07:58:48,878 among the ultra wealthy. 9880 07:58:46,478 --> 07:58:51,440 When the New Zealand citizenship story 9881 07:58:48,878 --> 07:58:55,040 became public, one of Theo's closest 9882 07:58:51,440 --> 07:58:57,800 peers, Samman, put it bluntly. 9883 07:58:55,040 --> 07:59:00,798 If things go really wrong, I'm flying to 9884 07:58:57,800 --> 07:59:04,000 [music] Peter's place. 9885 07:59:00,798 --> 07:59:07,200 Some men try to make history. Peter 9886 07:59:04,000 --> 07:59:10,000 Theel is trying to escape it. 9887 07:59:07,200 --> 07:59:12,320 And if the future breaks, he intends to 9888 07:59:10,000 --> 07:59:15,320 be standing [music] somewhere it cannot 9889 07:59:12,320 --> 07:59:15,320 reach. 9890 08:00:41,040 --> 08:00:46,080 Most people see this and think culture. 9891 08:00:44,000 --> 08:00:48,478 They see a charming eco-friendly 9892 08:00:46,080 --> 08:00:51,280 tradition. 9893 08:00:48,478 --> 08:00:53,680 But look closer. This isn't just people 9894 08:00:51,280 --> 08:00:56,240 liking to pedal. What you were watching 9895 08:00:53,680 --> 08:00:58,080 is a highfrequency, low friction 9896 08:00:56,240 --> 08:00:59,920 economic machine. 9897 08:00:58,080 --> 08:01:01,920 >> Ultimately, private car ownership is 9898 08:00:59,920 --> 08:01:03,520 going to become obsolete. Cities are 9899 08:01:01,920 --> 08:01:05,200 building for pedestrians. They're 9900 08:01:03,520 --> 08:01:08,638 building for cycling. They're building 9901 08:01:05,200 --> 08:01:11,280 for livability, not for cars. 9902 08:01:08,638 --> 08:01:15,240 >> The bike economy, the multi-billion 9903 08:01:11,280 --> 08:01:15,240 dollar system of Amsterdam. 9904 08:01:16,398 --> 08:01:23,200 In Amsterdam, the bicycle isn't a toy. 9905 08:01:19,840 --> 08:01:26,080 It is a critical urban infrastructure. 9906 08:01:23,200 --> 08:01:30,520 If this system failed today, the city's 9907 08:01:26,080 --> 08:01:30,520 economy would collapse tomorrow. 9908 08:01:30,638 --> 08:01:35,760 For decades, the world has viewed 9909 08:01:32,558 --> 08:01:38,958 Amsterdam through a romantic lens. But 9910 08:01:35,760 --> 08:01:41,600 cities don't run on vibes. They run on 9911 08:01:38,958 --> 08:01:43,520 systems. And when a system moves 9912 08:01:41,600 --> 08:01:46,478 hundreds of thousands of people every 9913 08:01:43,520 --> 08:01:49,680 single day, it stops being a choice and 9914 08:01:46,478 --> 08:01:52,478 starts demanding three things. space, 9915 08:01:49,680 --> 08:01:54,718 rules, and capital. 9916 08:01:52,478 --> 08:01:56,878 Research shows that the cycling system 9917 08:01:54,718 --> 08:01:59,040 contributes benefits equivalent to 9918 08:01:56,878 --> 08:02:00,558 roughly 3% [music] of the Netherlands 9919 08:01:59,040 --> 08:02:03,440 GDP. 9920 08:02:00,558 --> 08:02:06,320 This isn't just green energy. It's hard 9921 08:02:03,440 --> 08:02:08,878 cash saved in public health, reduced 9922 08:02:06,320 --> 08:02:10,558 absenteeism at work, and most 9923 08:02:08,878 --> 08:02:13,360 importantly, [music] unlocked 9924 08:02:10,558 --> 08:02:16,080 productivity. Every person on a bike is 9925 08:02:13,360 --> 08:02:19,040 a person who isn't taking up 12 square 9926 08:02:16,080 --> 08:02:21,280 meters of public space with a car. That 9927 08:02:19,040 --> 08:02:23,600 freed up space [music] allows for high 9928 08:02:21,280 --> 08:02:26,558 value real estate, commerce, and 9929 08:02:23,600 --> 08:02:31,160 tourism. In economics, we call this 9930 08:02:26,558 --> 08:02:31,160 optimization of land use. 9931 08:02:32,638 --> 08:02:39,440 But success created a crisis. By the 9932 08:02:36,000 --> 08:02:41,520 2010s, Amsterdam had a clutter problem. 9933 08:02:39,440 --> 08:02:44,958 Thousands of bikes were choking the 9934 08:02:41,520 --> 08:02:47,040 streets. The solution, one of the most 9935 08:02:44,958 --> 08:02:50,160 expensive [music] and daring engineering 9936 08:02:47,040 --> 08:02:53,920 projects in the city. They built a 9937 08:02:50,160 --> 08:02:55,520 cathedral for 7,000 bicycles under the 9938 08:02:53,920 --> 08:02:58,160 water. 9939 08:02:55,520 --> 08:03:00,240 It cost millions. From a traditional 9940 08:02:58,160 --> 08:03:01,440 linear perspective, spending that much 9941 08:03:00,240 --> 08:03:04,160 on free parking [music] 9942 08:03:01,440 --> 08:03:06,398 seems insane. But from a circular 9943 08:03:04,160 --> 08:03:08,160 economy perspective, a model where 9944 08:03:06,398 --> 08:03:11,920 Amsterdam is a [music] global leader 9945 08:03:08,160 --> 08:03:14,638 with 30.6% circularity rate, it was a 9946 08:03:11,920 --> 08:03:16,798 mandatory investment. As we see in the 9947 08:03:14,638 --> 08:03:19,440 latest urban governance reports, [music] 9948 08:03:16,798 --> 08:03:22,000 planning isn't an option here. It's the 9949 08:03:19,440 --> 08:03:23,920 only way to exist. 9950 08:03:22,000 --> 08:03:26,718 In this documentary, we are [music] 9951 08:03:23,920 --> 08:03:30,398 going beyond the postcard. We will 9952 08:03:26,718 --> 08:03:33,600 travel back to 1965 to see why the first 9953 08:03:30,398 --> 08:03:36,080 sharing economy experiment failed. We 9954 08:03:33,600 --> 08:03:37,360 will use scientific GPS data to track 9955 08:03:36,080 --> 08:03:40,878 the shadow economy [music] 9956 08:03:37,360 --> 08:03:43,440 of the 80,000 bikes stolen every year. 9957 08:03:40,878 --> 08:03:45,350 And we will explore how Amsterdam is 9958 08:03:43,440 --> 08:03:48,878 using the bicycle to become the world's 9959 08:03:45,350 --> 08:03:52,320 [music] first 100% circular city by 9960 08:03:48,878 --> 08:03:54,398 2050. This is the story of how a humble 9961 08:03:52,320 --> 08:03:57,200 machine with two wheels became the 9962 08:03:54,398 --> 08:04:00,200 backbone of a multi-billion dollar urban 9963 08:03:57,200 --> 08:04:00,200 miracle. 9964 08:04:02,878 --> 08:04:08,958 To understand why Amsterdam spends €85 9965 08:04:05,840 --> 08:04:11,440 million on underwater parking today, we 9966 08:04:08,958 --> 08:04:14,718 have to go back to a time when the city 9967 08:04:11,440 --> 08:04:17,718 almost lost its soul to the car, the 9968 08:04:14,718 --> 08:04:17,718 1960s. 9969 08:04:21,920 --> 08:04:26,478 As postwar prosperity grew, Amsterdam 9970 08:04:24,958 --> 08:04:28,240 was being choked by [music] motor 9971 08:04:26,478 --> 08:04:30,398 vehicles. 9972 08:04:28,240 --> 08:04:32,478 In response, a counterculture group 9973 08:04:30,398 --> 08:04:35,040 called the Provos launched what would 9974 08:04:32,478 --> 08:04:38,798 become the first bike sharing program in 9975 08:04:35,040 --> 08:04:40,878 history, the Vita Fien Plan or the white 9976 08:04:38,798 --> 08:04:42,990 bike plan. 9977 08:04:40,878 --> 08:04:43,520 Their proposal was radical and purely 9978 08:04:42,990 --> 08:04:47,600 [music] 9979 08:04:43,520 --> 08:04:49,840 idealistic. Paint 20,000 bicycles white, 9980 08:04:47,600 --> 08:04:52,160 leave them unlocked across the city, and 9981 08:04:49,840 --> 08:04:55,680 let anyone use them for free. [music] 9982 08:04:52,160 --> 08:04:58,638 No keys, no coins, no owners. They 9983 08:04:55,680 --> 08:05:00,878 viewed mobility as a public good, as 9984 08:04:58,638 --> 08:05:03,360 essential and free as the air we 9985 08:05:00,878 --> 08:05:06,958 breathe. On paper, [music] it was a 9986 08:05:03,360 --> 08:05:09,440 circular economy. Avon Plletra. In 9987 08:05:06,958 --> 08:05:12,878 practice, it [music] was a disaster. 9988 08:05:09,440 --> 08:05:14,478 Within days, the system collapsed. Why? 9989 08:05:12,878 --> 08:05:16,394 Because the province ignored a 9990 08:05:14,478 --> 08:05:17,040 fundamental principle of economics, 9991 08:05:16,394 --> 08:05:21,320 [music] 9992 08:05:17,040 --> 08:05:21,320 the tragedy of the commons. 9993 08:05:39,200 --> 08:05:42,200 for 9994 08:05:56,798 --> 08:06:01,600 without ownership or registration. 9995 08:05:58,958 --> 08:06:04,210 Public property quickly became nobody's 9996 08:06:01,600 --> 08:06:06,240 property. In an unregulated system 9997 08:06:04,210 --> 08:06:08,080 [music] with zero entry cost, the 9998 08:06:06,240 --> 08:06:10,320 incentive to maintain the asset 9999 08:06:08,080 --> 08:06:12,878 disappears. Without locks or 10000 08:06:10,320 --> 08:06:15,760 registration, public property quickly 10001 08:06:12,878 --> 08:06:17,310 became nobody's property. The police 10002 08:06:15,760 --> 08:06:20,080 confiscated the bikes because they 10003 08:06:17,310 --> 08:06:22,718 [music] invited theft and the citizens 10004 08:06:20,080 --> 08:06:24,320 driven by individual rationalism either 10005 08:06:22,718 --> 08:06:27,440 took them home [music] or threw them 10006 08:06:24,320 --> 08:06:30,160 into the canals. 10007 08:06:27,440 --> 08:06:31,920 The lesson was harsh. You cannot have a 10008 08:06:30,160 --> 08:06:34,558 massive urban transit system [music] 10009 08:06:31,920 --> 08:06:38,280 based solely on romanticism. 10010 08:06:34,558 --> 08:06:38,280 You need governance. 10011 08:06:39,920 --> 08:06:46,000 However, the white bikes planted a seed. 10012 08:06:42,958 --> 08:06:47,760 It shifted the economic debate. The city 10013 08:06:46,000 --> 08:06:50,000 realized that if they didn't want to 10014 08:06:47,760 --> 08:06:52,558 spend billions on highways like Los 10015 08:06:50,000 --> 08:06:55,360 Angeles or London, they had to invest in 10016 08:06:52,558 --> 08:06:57,680 a different kind of capital. Transition 10017 08:06:55,360 --> 08:07:00,718 requires not just technology but a 10018 08:06:57,680 --> 08:07:02,506 change in urban metabolism. 10019 08:07:00,718 --> 08:07:04,718 The failure of the white bikes taught 10020 08:07:02,506 --> 08:07:07,040 [music] Amsterdam that the bicycle had 10021 08:07:04,718 --> 08:07:10,160 to be integrated into the formal economy 10022 08:07:07,040 --> 08:07:14,080 of the city, not as a rebel symbol, but 10023 08:07:10,160 --> 08:07:16,080 as a regulated, taxed and planned asset. 10024 08:07:14,080 --> 08:07:18,798 Today, the free spirit of the white 10025 08:07:16,080 --> 08:07:21,680 bikes only survives in one place, the 10026 08:07:18,798 --> 08:07:23,840 Hoga Valuve National Park. But [music] 10027 08:07:21,680 --> 08:07:26,240 in the city, the white bike has been 10028 08:07:23,840 --> 08:07:29,280 replaced by a sophisticated capital 10029 08:07:26,240 --> 08:07:31,200 incentive model. We no longer trust in 10030 08:07:29,280 --> 08:07:34,478 the [music] goodness of the user. We 10031 08:07:31,200 --> 08:07:36,798 trust in incentives. We move the tragedy 10032 08:07:34,478 --> 08:07:40,000 of the commons to a system of managed 10033 08:07:36,798 --> 08:07:43,120 common pool resources. In economics, 10034 08:07:40,000 --> 08:07:45,840 success can be as disruptive as failure. 10035 08:07:43,120 --> 08:07:48,398 By the late 2010s, Amsterdam was a 10036 08:07:45,840 --> 08:07:50,798 victim of its own efficiency. With 10037 08:07:48,398 --> 08:07:53,120 nearly 1 million bicycles in the city, 10038 08:07:50,798 --> 08:07:56,240 the urban surface had reached a breaking 10039 08:07:53,120 --> 08:08:00,320 point. Every bridge, railing, and 10040 08:07:56,240 --> 08:08:02,878 sidewalk was occupied by idle metal. 10041 08:08:00,320 --> 08:08:06,000 This wasn't just an aesthetic grievance. 10042 08:08:02,878 --> 08:08:08,398 It was an economic bottleneck. Thousands 10043 08:08:06,000 --> 08:08:09,200 of parked bikes were clogging the city's 10044 08:08:08,398 --> 08:08:12,080 arteries, [music] 10045 08:08:09,200 --> 08:08:14,958 slowing down 200,000 daily commuters at 10046 08:08:12,080 --> 08:08:17,680 Central Station. In one of the world's 10047 08:08:14,958 --> 08:08:20,000 most expensive real estate markets, free 10048 08:08:17,680 --> 08:08:22,398 surface parking is a luxury that a 10049 08:08:20,000 --> 08:08:24,798 functional city cannot [music] afford. 10050 08:08:22,398 --> 08:08:27,840 The opportunity cost of that space was 10051 08:08:24,798 --> 08:08:31,280 becoming too high. To solve this, 10052 08:08:27,840 --> 08:08:34,240 Amsterdam launched the entre, a massive 10053 08:08:31,280 --> 08:08:37,200 urban reconfiguration project. The crown 10054 08:08:34,240 --> 08:08:38,878 jewel, the open haven underwater 10055 08:08:37,200 --> 08:08:41,360 parking. 10056 08:08:38,878 --> 08:08:45,040 Consider that figure. spending [music] 10057 08:08:41,360 --> 08:08:46,558 €60 million just to store 7,000 bicycles 10058 08:08:45,040 --> 08:08:48,958 underwater. 10059 08:08:46,558 --> 08:08:52,080 To a traditional accountant, this looks 10060 08:08:48,958 --> 08:08:54,798 like a massive sunk cost. But to an 10061 08:08:52,080 --> 08:08:58,478 urban economist, it's a master stroke of 10062 08:08:54,798 --> 08:09:00,798 asset management. By moving 7,000 bikes 10063 08:08:58,478 --> 08:09:03,680 beneath the water, the city performed 10064 08:09:00,798 --> 08:09:05,600 open heart surgery on its central hub. 10065 08:09:03,680 --> 08:09:08,878 They reclaimed the surface, restoring 10066 08:09:05,600 --> 08:09:11,280 the landscape to its 1900's aesthetic. 10067 08:09:08,878 --> 08:09:14,478 This isn't just about beauty. It's about 10068 08:09:11,280 --> 08:09:16,798 maximizing pedestrian flow. A station 10069 08:09:14,478 --> 08:09:19,360 that breathes and flows is a station 10070 08:09:16,798 --> 08:09:22,478 that generates higher economic value for 10071 08:09:19,360 --> 08:09:25,440 the surrounding businesses. However, an 10072 08:09:22,478 --> 08:09:27,360 85 million euro asset must be managed 10073 08:09:25,440 --> 08:09:30,240 like a high performance logistics 10074 08:09:27,360 --> 08:09:33,040 center. You cannot allow zombie bikes to 10075 08:09:30,240 --> 08:09:35,040 occupy these slots indefinitely. 10076 08:09:33,040 --> 08:09:37,040 This is where the incentive structure 10077 08:09:35,040 --> 08:09:39,840 comes into play. 10078 08:09:37,040 --> 08:09:43,040 The primary goal isn't profit, it's 10079 08:09:39,840 --> 08:09:45,604 turnover. By offering the first 24 hours 10080 08:09:43,040 --> 08:09:48,478 for free, the city subsidizes the daily 10081 08:09:45,604 --> 08:09:51,040 [music] workforce. But by charging a 10082 08:09:48,478 --> 08:09:54,240 daily fee thereafter, they penalize 10083 08:09:51,040 --> 08:09:56,638 long-term storage and abandonment. Using 10084 08:09:54,240 --> 08:09:59,600 advanced optical sensors, the city 10085 08:09:56,638 --> 08:10:02,080 monitors idle inventory in real time, 10086 08:09:59,600 --> 08:10:04,478 ensuring that these [music] 7,000 slots 10087 08:10:02,080 --> 08:10:07,840 remain a liquid asset for those who keep 10088 08:10:04,478 --> 08:10:07,840 the economy moving. 10089 08:10:08,240 --> 08:10:13,478 Finally, we must consider the cost of 10090 08:10:10,478 --> 08:10:13,478 friction. 10091 08:10:21,440 --> 08:10:24,440 Fore 10092 08:10:49,040 --> 08:10:53,760 in transport economics, every Second 10093 08:10:51,280 --> 08:10:56,080 loss in a transfer is a loss in human 10094 08:10:53,760 --> 08:10:58,160 capital and productivity. 10095 08:10:56,080 --> 08:11:00,080 This underwater facility connects 10096 08:10:58,160 --> 08:11:03,200 directly to the [music] metro and train 10097 08:11:00,080 --> 08:11:05,520 platforms. A commuter can transition 10098 08:11:03,200 --> 08:11:07,760 from their bicycle to their train seat 10099 08:11:05,520 --> 08:11:10,000 in less than 2 [music] minutes, shielded 10100 08:11:07,760 --> 08:11:11,440 from the elements. This level of 10101 08:11:10,000 --> 08:11:13,520 intermodel synergy [music] 10102 08:11:11,440 --> 08:11:15,680 is exactly what makes Amsterdam's 10103 08:11:13,520 --> 08:11:19,360 circular economy, currently at [music] a 10104 08:11:15,680 --> 08:11:21,760 record 30.6% 6% circularity rate, a 10105 08:11:19,360 --> 08:11:25,240 functional reality rather than just a 10106 08:11:21,760 --> 08:11:25,240 policy goal. 10107 08:11:48,000 --> 08:11:52,558 But this transition to a highly 10108 08:11:49,760 --> 08:11:54,798 regulated system created its own set of 10109 08:11:52,558 --> 08:11:57,760 problems. Because when you turn a 10110 08:11:54,798 --> 08:12:00,240 bicycle into a valuable economic asset, 10111 08:11:57,760 --> 08:12:03,200 you create something else. A black 10112 08:12:00,240 --> 08:12:05,600 market. In Amsterdam, [music] data 10113 08:12:03,200 --> 08:12:08,718 doesn't tell the whole story. While 10114 08:12:05,600 --> 08:12:12,240 police record 11,000 thefts a year, the 10115 08:12:08,718 --> 08:12:15,120 reality is closer to 80,000. 10116 08:12:12,240 --> 08:12:17,760 Most citizens don't report it. Cost of 10117 08:12:15,120 --> 08:12:20,000 time is higher than the bike's value. 10118 08:12:17,760 --> 08:12:22,240 This creates a massive shadow market 10119 08:12:20,000 --> 08:12:25,360 operating entirely outside the official 10120 08:12:22,240 --> 08:12:28,478 GDP. Forget the myth of international 10121 08:12:25,360 --> 08:12:32,160 bike smuggling rings. 10122 08:12:28,478 --> 08:12:34,320 A 2023 study tracking 100 bikes proved 10123 08:12:32,160 --> 08:12:37,440 that stolen assets rarely leave the 10124 08:12:34,320 --> 08:12:39,834 city. Instead, they feed a shadow 10125 08:12:37,440 --> 08:12:41,760 circular economy. Your stolen bike 10126 08:12:39,834 --> 08:12:44,000 [music] is sold to a street dealer and 10127 08:12:41,760 --> 08:12:46,398 then bought by your neighbor. It's a 10128 08:12:44,000 --> 08:12:49,600 localized, untaxed, and [music] illegal 10129 08:12:46,398 --> 08:12:51,760 closed loop. 10130 08:12:49,600 --> 08:12:54,320 High theft risk creates a market 10131 08:12:51,760 --> 08:12:56,718 distortion. If you expect your bike to 10132 08:12:54,320 --> 08:12:57,680 be stolen within months, you don't buy 10133 08:12:56,718 --> 08:13:01,440 quality, [music] 10134 08:12:57,680 --> 08:13:03,600 you buy junk. This beta bike equilibrium 10135 08:13:01,440 --> 08:13:06,000 keeps the city's transport fleet low 10136 08:13:03,600 --> 08:13:09,520 quality and forces owners to spend more 10137 08:13:06,000 --> 08:13:12,240 on locks than the bikes themselves. 10138 08:13:09,520 --> 08:13:14,550 These aren't victimless crimes. They are 10139 08:13:12,240 --> 08:13:17,680 negative externalities that drain city 10140 08:13:14,550 --> 08:13:20,958 [music] resources. Amsterdam's answer, 10141 08:13:17,680 --> 08:13:23,064 the Fiat depot. Since the city couldn't 10142 08:13:20,958 --> 08:13:25,760 stop the theft, it decided to manage 10143 08:13:23,064 --> 08:13:28,304 [music] the orphaned assets because in a 10144 08:13:25,760 --> 08:13:30,240 circular city, even a stolen bike is a 10145 08:13:28,304 --> 08:13:34,200 [music] resource that must be managed to 10146 08:13:30,240 --> 08:13:34,200 maintain the urban metabolism. 10147 08:13:34,638 --> 08:13:38,958 In a city with more bicycles than 10148 08:13:36,798 --> 08:13:40,638 people, orphaned assets are an 10149 08:13:38,958 --> 08:13:42,558 inevitability. 10150 08:13:40,638 --> 08:13:45,600 Every year, thousands of bikes are 10151 08:13:42,558 --> 08:13:48,160 simply left behind. In economic terms, 10152 08:13:45,600 --> 08:13:50,878 this is dead capital. They occupy 10153 08:13:48,160 --> 08:13:52,798 valuable public space, provide zero 10154 08:13:50,878 --> 08:13:54,398 utility, and degrade the urban 10155 08:13:52,798 --> 08:13:56,320 landscape. 10156 08:13:54,398 --> 08:13:58,798 According to official Amsterdam 10157 08:13:56,320 --> 08:14:01,280 regulations, the city must intervene 10158 08:13:58,798 --> 08:14:03,440 when private property interferes with 10159 08:14:01,280 --> 08:14:06,000 public efficiency. 10160 08:14:03,440 --> 08:14:08,878 Whether is an improperly parked bike 10161 08:14:06,000 --> 08:14:10,880 blocking an emergency exit or a wreck 10162 08:14:08,878 --> 08:14:12,878 that is no longer functional, the 10163 08:14:10,880 --> 08:14:17,120 [music] municipality acts as the 10164 08:14:12,878 --> 08:14:19,840 ultimate enforcer of spatial order. 10165 08:14:17,120 --> 08:14:23,440 All seized bicycles are transported to a 10166 08:14:19,840 --> 08:14:25,680 central facility, the Fiat depot. This 10167 08:14:23,440 --> 08:14:28,798 is a logistical powerhouse that manages 10168 08:14:25,680 --> 08:14:31,280 the city's lost capital. This isn't just 10169 08:14:28,798 --> 08:14:33,920 a pound. [music] It's a sorting facility 10170 08:14:31,280 --> 08:14:37,120 for the city's metal metabolism, the 10171 08:14:33,920 --> 08:14:38,958 retrieval. Owners have around 6 weeks to 10172 08:14:37,120 --> 08:14:41,520 claim their bike for a fee, 10173 08:14:38,958 --> 08:14:43,440 approximately €25. 10174 08:14:41,520 --> 08:14:45,840 This fee doesn't cover the full 10175 08:14:43,440 --> 08:14:49,120 operational cost, but it serves as a 10176 08:14:45,840 --> 08:14:51,520 user pays tax to discourage abandonment. 10177 08:14:49,120 --> 08:14:53,920 If your bicycle was removed from a city 10178 08:14:51,520 --> 08:14:56,000 parking facility, you will also pay 10179 08:14:53,920 --> 08:15:00,398 €33.75 10180 08:14:56,000 --> 08:15:03,680 parking cost. The sorting only about 25% 10181 08:15:00,398 --> 08:15:06,558 of bikes are ever reclaimed. The rest 10182 08:15:03,680 --> 08:15:08,080 they are classified as waste or asset. 10183 08:15:06,558 --> 08:15:12,000 Here is where [music] the circular 10184 08:15:08,080 --> 08:15:15,360 economy strategy 2020 to 2025 becomes 10185 08:15:12,000 --> 08:15:20,398 tangible. Amsterdam aims to reduce the 10186 08:15:15,360 --> 08:15:22,718 use of new raw materials by 50% by 2030. 10187 08:15:20,398 --> 08:15:24,478 The Fiat's depot doesn't just scrap 10188 08:15:22,718 --> 08:15:26,000 everything. 10189 08:15:24,478 --> 08:15:28,240 Refurbishment. 10190 08:15:26,000 --> 08:15:31,040 Bikes in decent condition are sold to 10191 08:15:28,240 --> 08:15:33,520 social enterprises or secondhand shops. 10192 08:15:31,040 --> 08:15:35,520 They are recirculated into the economy 10193 08:15:33,520 --> 08:15:37,920 at a low price point, providing 10194 08:15:35,520 --> 08:15:39,680 affordable mobility for lowincome 10195 08:15:37,920 --> 08:15:41,280 residents. 10196 08:15:39,680 --> 08:15:43,680 Education. 10197 08:15:41,280 --> 08:15:46,320 Many are used in vocational training 10198 08:15:43,680 --> 08:15:48,958 programs, turning junk, into a teaching 10199 08:15:46,320 --> 08:15:52,000 tool for future mechanics. Raw 10200 08:15:48,958 --> 08:15:54,398 materials, the unsalvageable ones, are 10201 08:15:52,000 --> 08:15:58,080 sold as highquality scrap metal, [music] 10202 08:15:54,398 --> 08:16:00,000 feeding back into the industrial cycle. 10203 08:15:58,080 --> 08:16:03,440 What we see here is a complete life 10204 08:16:00,000 --> 08:16:05,280 cycle management of a transport mode. 10205 08:16:03,440 --> 08:16:07,200 The biggest challenge for circular 10206 08:16:05,280 --> 08:16:09,920 cities is the lack of effective 10207 08:16:07,200 --> 08:16:12,080 governance mechanisms. Amsterdam 10208 08:16:09,920 --> 08:16:14,638 succeeds because it treats the bicycle 10209 08:16:12,080 --> 08:16:16,958 as a public utility. From the 10210 08:16:14,638 --> 08:16:19,600 multi-million euro investment under the 10211 08:16:16,958 --> 08:16:21,440 water to the scrap metal in the harbor, 10212 08:16:19,600 --> 08:16:26,120 the city manages the entire 10213 08:16:21,440 --> 08:16:26,120 cradletograve cycle of the bicycle. 10214 08:16:28,000 --> 08:16:32,558 Amsterdam is no longer just building 10215 08:16:30,160 --> 08:16:36,160 bike lanes. It is building a new 10216 08:16:32,558 --> 08:16:39,440 economic DNA. The city has set a target 10217 08:16:36,160 --> 08:16:44,760 that many economists call impossible to 10218 08:16:39,440 --> 08:16:44,760 be 100% circular by 2050. 10219 08:16:45,680 --> 08:16:51,280 This means that by midentury, every gram 10220 08:16:48,478 --> 08:16:53,760 of steel in a bicycle and every stone in 10221 08:16:51,280 --> 08:16:55,120 a bridge must stay within the economic 10222 08:16:53,760 --> 08:16:57,920 loop. 10223 08:16:55,120 --> 08:17:01,120 The take, make, waste model will be 10224 08:16:57,920 --> 08:17:03,920 extinct. For Amsterdam, the bicycle is 10225 08:17:01,120 --> 08:17:06,958 the alpha product. The test case for how 10226 08:17:03,920 --> 08:17:10,240 a city can move, consume, and recycle 10227 08:17:06,958 --> 08:17:13,440 without depleting the planet's capital. 10228 08:17:10,240 --> 08:17:15,680 To reach 100% circularity, the concept 10229 08:17:13,440 --> 08:17:18,958 of private ownership is being challenged 10230 08:17:15,680 --> 08:17:21,600 by a more efficient model, product as a 10231 08:17:18,958 --> 08:17:23,680 service. You don't buy the bike, you 10232 08:17:21,600 --> 08:17:25,520 rent the mobility. 10233 08:17:23,680 --> 08:17:27,120 So we talk a lot about ownership as a 10234 08:17:25,520 --> 08:17:30,160 service, but it's this idea of, you 10235 08:17:27,120 --> 08:17:32,558 know, something as a service. So in our 10236 08:17:30,160 --> 08:17:34,558 case, bike as a service. It's all of the 10237 08:17:32,558 --> 08:17:36,160 benefits of ownership, but none of the 10238 08:17:34,558 --> 08:17:38,160 drawbacks. So none of having to deal 10239 08:17:36,160 --> 08:17:39,840 with the maintenance or or any of the 10240 08:17:38,160 --> 08:17:40,798 things that come with actually owning 10241 08:17:39,840 --> 08:17:43,120 something. 10242 08:17:40,798 --> 08:17:46,000 >> Economically, this aligns the incentives 10243 08:17:43,120 --> 08:17:48,798 of the producer and the consumer. If the 10244 08:17:46,000 --> 08:17:51,600 bike breaks, it's the company's problem, 10245 08:17:48,798 --> 08:17:53,360 not yours. by centralizing all of that 10246 08:17:51,600 --> 08:17:54,878 maintenance. Obviously, we cut cost 10247 08:17:53,360 --> 08:17:56,958 significantly. We cut [music] waste 10248 08:17:54,878 --> 08:17:59,600 significantly. Um, but for the 10249 08:17:56,958 --> 08:18:01,040 individual user, um, they have nothing 10250 08:17:59,600 --> 08:18:02,320 to worry about. You know, as a 10251 08:18:01,040 --> 08:18:03,760 subscriber, you get all of your 10252 08:18:02,320 --> 08:18:05,520 maintenance. So, we come and do 10253 08:18:03,760 --> 08:18:07,680 preventative maintenance. So, first of 10254 08:18:05,520 --> 08:18:09,680 all, that obviously reduced the cost um, 10255 08:18:07,680 --> 08:18:11,840 overall, not so much to the end user, 10256 08:18:09,680 --> 08:18:13,280 but the cost of the business. Um, that 10257 08:18:11,840 --> 08:18:16,000 prevents breakdowns and things like 10258 08:18:13,280 --> 08:18:19,280 that. But in the end, if you think about 10259 08:18:16,000 --> 08:18:20,638 um the cost of time, the cost of effort, 10260 08:18:19,280 --> 08:18:22,398 um maybe you don't even know how to 10261 08:18:20,638 --> 08:18:24,080 maintain your own bike. Um having a 10262 08:18:22,398 --> 08:18:26,160 service that does all of that for you is 10263 08:18:24,080 --> 08:18:28,798 just a a matter of convenience. 10264 08:18:26,160 --> 08:18:31,760 >> This forces manufacturers to design for 10265 08:18:28,798 --> 08:18:34,798 durability and modularity, the core 10266 08:18:31,760 --> 08:18:37,040 pillars of this circular economy. When 10267 08:18:34,798 --> 08:18:39,120 the city manages the flow and private 10268 08:18:37,040 --> 08:18:42,080 companies manage the maintenance, the 10269 08:18:39,120 --> 08:18:45,040 shadow economy of theft we saw in act 10270 08:18:42,080 --> 08:18:46,558 three begins to shrink. So if you 10271 08:18:45,040 --> 08:18:48,080 subscribe to a bike from Clover and your 10272 08:18:46,558 --> 08:18:49,600 bike gets stolen, first of all, we 10273 08:18:48,080 --> 08:18:51,680 actually probably will notice that it 10274 08:18:49,600 --> 08:18:53,844 got stolen maybe even before you did 10275 08:18:51,680 --> 08:18:55,760 because we have GPS on all the bikes. 10276 08:18:53,844 --> 08:18:58,080 [music] Um, but if it does get stolen, 10277 08:18:55,760 --> 08:18:59,520 you use our WhatsApp chat. You basically 10278 08:18:58,080 --> 08:19:02,080 send us a message and we come and bring 10279 08:18:59,520 --> 08:19:04,558 you a new bike immediately. Why steal a 10280 08:19:02,080 --> 08:19:07,120 bike that is tracked, branded, and has 10281 08:19:04,558 --> 08:19:09,520 no resale value in a subscription-based 10282 08:19:07,120 --> 08:19:11,280 market? 10283 08:19:09,520 --> 08:19:13,840 So, what is the final return on 10284 08:19:11,280 --> 08:19:17,600 investment? Let's look at the triple 10285 08:19:13,840 --> 08:19:20,000 bottom line. Public health. By avoiding 10286 08:19:17,600 --> 08:19:20,638 11,000 deaths annually through active 10287 08:19:20,000 --> 08:19:23,840 transport, [music] 10288 08:19:20,638 --> 08:19:26,080 the Dutch economy saves 19 billion in 10289 08:19:23,840 --> 08:19:29,520 health care costs. 10290 08:19:26,080 --> 08:19:32,080 Urban density. By utilizing underwater 10291 08:19:29,520 --> 08:19:34,398 parking and vertical depots, Amsterdam 10292 08:19:32,080 --> 08:19:36,320 maintains a population density that 10293 08:19:34,398 --> 08:19:38,798 would be impossible with cars, [music] 10294 08:19:36,320 --> 08:19:40,478 keeping real estate productivity at peak 10295 08:19:38,798 --> 08:19:43,200 levels. 10296 08:19:40,478 --> 08:19:45,680 Resource independence by reclaiming 10297 08:19:43,200 --> 08:19:47,760 metal from the Fiats depot. The city 10298 08:19:45,680 --> 08:19:50,240 insulates itself from [music] global 10299 08:19:47,760 --> 08:19:53,520 commodity price shocks. This is a 10300 08:19:50,240 --> 08:19:55,840 sustainable urban metabolism. The city 10301 08:19:53,520 --> 08:19:58,080 isn't just a place where people live. 10302 08:19:55,840 --> 08:20:01,520 It's a living organism that processes 10303 08:19:58,080 --> 08:20:03,760 resources with maximum efficiency. 10304 08:20:01,520 --> 08:20:06,080 Amsterdam's success has sent a clear 10305 08:20:03,760 --> 08:20:08,398 message to the rest of the continent. 10306 08:20:06,080 --> 08:20:11,200 Spatial efficiency is the only way 10307 08:20:08,398 --> 08:20:13,680 forward for the modern metropolis. 10308 08:20:11,200 --> 08:20:15,680 Across Europe, the bicycle has moved 10309 08:20:13,680 --> 08:20:17,840 from being a leisure tool to a 10310 08:20:15,680 --> 08:20:20,000 cornerstone of urban recovery and 10311 08:20:17,840 --> 08:20:22,398 economic resilience. 10312 08:20:20,000 --> 08:20:25,680 In Paris, a city once defined by [music] 10313 08:20:22,398 --> 08:20:28,320 its congestion, the plan is investing 10314 08:20:25,680 --> 08:20:31,760 hundreds of millions to become 100% 10315 08:20:28,320 --> 08:20:34,080 cyclable. In Barcelona, the super blocks 10316 08:20:31,760 --> 08:20:38,478 are reclaiming entire intersections from 10317 08:20:34,080 --> 08:20:40,080 cars to create human ccentric lungs. 10318 08:20:38,478 --> 08:20:42,000 These aren't just environmental 10319 08:20:40,080 --> 08:20:43,680 projects, [music] they are market 10320 08:20:42,000 --> 08:20:46,080 corrections. 10321 08:20:43,680 --> 08:20:48,558 The cities are betting that a quieter, 10322 08:20:46,080 --> 08:20:50,958 cleaner, and more agile urban center 10323 08:20:48,558 --> 08:20:53,920 will attract more talent, more tourism, 10324 08:20:50,958 --> 08:20:56,478 and higher property values. 10325 08:20:53,920 --> 08:20:58,958 From the cycle superighways of London to 10326 08:20:56,478 --> 08:21:02,000 the industrial hubs of Germany, the 10327 08:20:58,958 --> 08:21:05,360 economic logic is consistent. Replacing 10328 08:21:02,000 --> 08:21:07,760 a 1 and 1/2 ton vehicle with a 15 kg 10329 08:21:05,360 --> 08:21:09,760 machine reduces the cost of maintenance 10330 08:21:07,760 --> 08:21:12,558 for the city and increases the 10331 08:21:09,760 --> 08:21:14,718 productivity of the citizen. 10332 08:21:12,558 --> 08:21:17,040 But while northern capitals have the 10333 08:21:14,718 --> 08:21:19,760 advantage of decades of infrastructure, 10334 08:21:17,040 --> 08:21:21,840 the real test is happening in the south. 10335 08:21:19,760 --> 08:21:24,080 In the Mediterranean, where the street 10336 08:21:21,840 --> 08:21:26,320 is a social space and the sun is a 10337 08:21:24,080 --> 08:21:29,040 constant resource, a new leader is 10338 08:21:26,320 --> 08:21:31,520 emerging. A city that has used the 10339 08:21:29,040 --> 08:21:35,320 Amsterdam blueprint to transform itself 10340 08:21:31,520 --> 08:21:35,320 at record speed. 10341 08:21:36,942 --> 08:21:38,960 [music] 10342 08:21:47,360 --> 08:21:50,360 forgo. 10343 08:22:37,202 --> 08:22:41,040 >> [music] 10344 08:22:38,478 --> 08:22:44,520 >> If Amsterdam is the blueprint, Valencia 10345 08:22:41,040 --> 08:22:44,520 is the laboratory. 10346 08:22:45,600 --> 08:22:48,600 Okay. 10347 08:22:57,520 --> 08:23:00,840 Not the fact 10348 08:23:28,160 --> 08:23:32,398 In less than a decade, this 10349 08:23:29,920 --> 08:23:34,842 Mediterranean city has transitioned from 10350 08:23:32,398 --> 08:23:39,000 a car ccentric capital to a global 10351 08:23:34,842 --> 08:23:39,000 [music] reference in urban metabolism. 10352 08:23:39,428 --> 08:23:41,448 [music] 10353 08:24:00,638 --> 08:24:06,240 Valencia's transformation wasn't a 10354 08:24:02,958 --> 08:24:08,398 matter of vibes or romanticism. It was a 10355 08:24:06,240 --> 08:24:09,920 calculated investment in spatial 10356 08:24:08,398 --> 08:24:12,160 efficiency. 10357 08:24:09,920 --> 08:24:13,760 >> I think attracting top global talent 10358 08:24:12,160 --> 08:24:15,454 means that you need to have a vibrant, 10359 08:24:13,760 --> 08:24:17,520 livable city. And I think most young 10360 08:24:15,454 --> 08:24:19,360 [music] people um particularly who are 10361 08:24:17,520 --> 08:24:21,360 coming into the workforce now are 10362 08:24:19,360 --> 08:24:23,840 looking for ways to get around a city 10363 08:24:21,360 --> 08:24:25,680 that doesn't rely on public transit. 10364 08:24:23,840 --> 08:24:27,840 They [music] don't want to own a car um 10365 08:24:25,680 --> 08:24:29,600 because car ownership is a total burden. 10366 08:24:27,840 --> 08:24:31,174 Having to find parking, insurance, cost 10367 08:24:29,600 --> 08:24:31,200 of the car, all of that. 10368 08:24:31,174 --> 08:24:32,718 >> [music] 10369 08:24:31,200 --> 08:24:34,958 >> So having this accessible 10370 08:24:32,718 --> 08:24:36,798 infrastructure, cycling infrastructure 10371 08:24:34,958 --> 08:24:38,718 specifically, and in a city like 10372 08:24:36,798 --> 08:24:40,718 Valencia that, you know, already has a 10373 08:24:38,718 --> 08:24:43,120 lot of reasons to attract top talent, 10374 08:24:40,718 --> 08:24:44,958 just makes it that much better. Um, 10375 08:24:43,120 --> 08:24:46,638 cycling is a preferred way to get around 10376 08:24:44,958 --> 08:24:48,718 in Valencia, we're number seven in the 10377 08:24:46,638 --> 08:24:50,638 world for cycling to work, for example. 10378 08:24:48,718 --> 08:24:52,790 So adding a layer of an easy 10379 08:24:50,638 --> 08:24:54,878 subscription ebike service to that just 10380 08:24:52,790 --> 08:24:57,040 [music] again attracts even more um top 10381 08:24:54,878 --> 08:25:00,080 talent to the city. 10382 08:24:57,040 --> 08:25:02,240 By implementing the Anilo cichlista, the 10383 08:25:00,080 --> 08:25:05,040 city has reclaimed high value public 10384 08:25:02,240 --> 08:25:07,360 space to boost local commerce and reduce 10385 08:25:05,040 --> 08:25:09,520 the toxic liability [music] of the car. 10386 08:25:07,360 --> 08:25:11,200 >> It's important to remember that um often 10387 08:25:09,520 --> 08:25:12,958 times with cars, although they can fit 10388 08:25:11,200 --> 08:25:14,958 multiple people, most of the time it's 10389 08:25:12,958 --> 08:25:16,638 one person per one car. So when we're 10390 08:25:14,958 --> 08:25:18,638 asking about, you know, 10 bikes versus 10391 08:25:16,638 --> 08:25:20,798 one car, we're essentially saying 10 10392 08:25:18,638 --> 08:25:22,558 people versus one person. So we have a 10393 08:25:20,798 --> 08:25:24,080 10x multiplier on essentially everything 10394 08:25:22,558 --> 08:25:25,360 that's happening on that street. Whether 10395 08:25:24,080 --> 08:25:26,478 that be visits to the businesses, 10396 08:25:25,360 --> 08:25:28,240 whether that be transactions and 10397 08:25:26,478 --> 08:25:29,760 purchases, everything gets that 10x 10398 08:25:28,240 --> 08:25:30,638 multiplier and increases revenue for the 10399 08:25:29,760 --> 08:25:33,120 whole street. 10400 08:25:30,638 --> 08:25:35,440 >> In economics, this is the optimization 10401 08:25:33,120 --> 08:25:37,680 of land use. The same principle that 10402 08:25:35,440 --> 08:25:38,558 drove Amsterdam to build under its 10403 08:25:37,680 --> 08:25:40,398 canals. 10404 08:25:38,558 --> 08:25:43,200 >> If I'm cycling and I pass by, for 10405 08:25:40,398 --> 08:25:44,718 example, a bakery, I go I smell that 10406 08:25:43,200 --> 08:25:46,160 bakery, I go, "Oh, you know what? Maybe 10407 08:25:44,718 --> 08:25:48,080 I'm going to stop in, try something one 10408 08:25:46,160 --> 08:25:49,200 of those products." Um, you know, 10409 08:25:48,080 --> 08:25:50,638 essentially become a patron of that 10410 08:25:49,200 --> 08:25:51,840 business. Whereas if I'm passing by in a 10411 08:25:50,638 --> 08:25:54,398 car, there's no chance of that 10412 08:25:51,840 --> 08:25:56,080 happening. And the other benefit is um 10413 08:25:54,398 --> 08:25:57,920 car parking also has this sort of 10414 08:25:56,080 --> 08:25:59,680 psychological effect on the streets and 10415 08:25:57,920 --> 08:26:01,360 the people that live there. Car parking 10416 08:25:59,680 --> 08:26:03,440 makes the space feel a lot more closed 10417 08:26:01,360 --> 08:26:04,798 in and a lot more cramped than bike 10418 08:26:03,440 --> 08:26:06,080 parking, which keeps the space very nice 10419 08:26:04,798 --> 08:26:08,000 and open. 10420 08:26:06,080 --> 08:26:10,878 >> Emerging businesses are shifting the 10421 08:26:08,000 --> 08:26:13,040 market from ownership to usership. 10422 08:26:10,878 --> 08:26:14,718 >> You know, our customers, they depend on 10423 08:26:13,040 --> 08:26:17,120 their bikes as a reliable way to get 10424 08:26:14,718 --> 08:26:18,478 around. And so we use an ownership as a 10425 08:26:17,120 --> 08:26:20,878 service model. So [music] 10426 08:26:18,478 --> 08:26:23,040 instead of owning the asset yourself, um 10427 08:26:20,878 --> 08:26:24,638 you subscribe to it from us. And we 10428 08:26:23,040 --> 08:26:25,920 think that's what customers need in 10429 08:26:24,638 --> 08:26:27,440 terms of reliable day-to-day 10430 08:26:25,920 --> 08:26:29,920 transportation. If you [music] look at 10431 08:26:27,440 --> 08:26:32,558 something like Lime or Valon BC, they 10432 08:26:29,920 --> 08:26:34,958 will have that idle asset problem. Um 10433 08:26:32,558 --> 08:26:36,718 and certainly ownership obviously the 10434 08:26:34,958 --> 08:26:39,120 same thing. But with us, you know, 10435 08:26:36,718 --> 08:26:41,040 handling maintenance, battery swapping, 10436 08:26:39,120 --> 08:26:43,280 theft protection, insurance, all of 10437 08:26:41,040 --> 08:26:45,200 that. Um and yet still having access to 10438 08:26:43,280 --> 08:26:47,120 the bike anytime you want. It's your 10439 08:26:45,200 --> 08:26:49,600 bike. [music] Subscription models like 10440 08:26:47,120 --> 08:26:52,478 swap Fiats, which already dominate the 10441 08:26:49,600 --> 08:26:54,478 Dutch market, are landing in Valencia. 10442 08:26:52,478 --> 08:26:56,718 These companies treat the bike as a 10443 08:26:54,478 --> 08:26:58,718 service, covering all maintenance and 10444 08:26:56,718 --> 08:27:00,398 repairs for a monthly fee. 10445 08:26:58,718 --> 08:27:02,478 >> Ownership isn't necessarily a bad 10446 08:27:00,398 --> 08:27:04,240 investment, but I think um most 10447 08:27:02,478 --> 08:27:05,600 consumers are moving away from owning 10448 08:27:04,240 --> 08:27:07,360 things. You know, people are leasing 10449 08:27:05,600 --> 08:27:10,080 their cars, people are, you know, more 10450 08:27:07,360 --> 08:27:11,840 and more renting their homes. Um so for 10451 08:27:10,080 --> 08:27:14,160 us, a subscription model made sense. 10452 08:27:11,840 --> 08:27:16,318 That and affordability. This eliminates 10453 08:27:14,160 --> 08:27:19,360 the fear of theft and long-term 10454 08:27:16,318 --> 08:27:21,600 depreciation, turning the bicycle into a 10455 08:27:19,360 --> 08:27:24,798 predictable low- friction utility for 10456 08:27:21,600 --> 08:27:27,840 the modern worker. The impact extends to 10457 08:27:24,798 --> 08:27:29,760 logistics. In Valencia's historic 10458 08:27:27,840 --> 08:27:32,160 center, where large trucks are 10459 08:27:29,760 --> 08:27:34,638 increasingly restricted, last mile 10460 08:27:32,160 --> 08:27:37,120 delivery by cargo bike is becoming the 10461 08:27:34,638 --> 08:27:39,520 gold standard for efficiency. We are 10462 08:27:37,120 --> 08:27:42,000 witnessing the birth of micro hubs, 10463 08:27:39,520 --> 08:27:44,318 small urban distribution centers that 10464 08:27:42,000 --> 08:27:47,600 allow for zero emission high-speed 10465 08:27:44,318 --> 08:27:49,280 delivery in high density zones. From the 10466 08:27:47,600 --> 08:27:51,680 massive underwater investments in 10467 08:27:49,280 --> 08:27:54,240 Amsterdam to the emerging subscription 10468 08:27:51,680 --> 08:27:57,280 models in Valencia, the message is 10469 08:27:54,240 --> 08:28:00,160 clear. The bicycle is no longer just a 10470 08:27:57,280 --> 08:28:02,718 hobby. It is a financial instrument and 10471 08:28:00,160 --> 08:28:03,920 a spatial optimizer. 10472 08:28:02,718 --> 08:28:06,318 You know, when we were speaking to 10473 08:28:03,920 --> 08:28:08,638 consumers about how we could get them to 10474 08:28:06,318 --> 08:28:10,478 switch from a car to an ebike, it was 10475 08:28:08,638 --> 08:28:12,718 all about convenience. So, it was about 10476 08:28:10,478 --> 08:28:14,718 this idea that, you know, with a car, 10477 08:28:12,718 --> 08:28:16,478 you can go point A to point B whenever 10478 08:28:14,718 --> 08:28:18,558 you want. You're not relying on public 10479 08:28:16,478 --> 08:28:20,638 transit or any of those things. But if 10480 08:28:18,558 --> 08:28:22,318 you need gas, you go to a gas station, 10481 08:28:20,638 --> 08:28:24,356 it takes 5 minutes, and you're back on 10482 08:28:22,318 --> 08:28:26,080 your way. People perceived ebikes 10483 08:28:24,356 --> 08:28:27,680 [music] as inconvenient because, oh, 10484 08:28:26,080 --> 08:28:29,040 what if I forget to charge the battery? 10485 08:28:27,680 --> 08:28:31,520 Then it's just kind of a very heavy 10486 08:28:29,040 --> 08:28:33,440 paper weight. Um, but if we eliminate 10487 08:28:31,520 --> 08:28:35,040 that need for charging and people can 10488 08:28:33,440 --> 08:28:37,600 just come and collect a charge battery 10489 08:28:35,040 --> 08:28:40,638 anytime, um, it helps break that barrier 10490 08:28:37,600 --> 08:28:42,558 to entry for getting out of a car. By 10491 08:28:40,638 --> 08:28:43,920 integrating these new business models 10492 08:28:42,558 --> 08:28:46,318 with public planning, [music] 10493 08:28:43,920 --> 08:28:49,280 Valencia is securing its place in the 10494 08:28:46,318 --> 08:28:51,680 21st century economy. Proving that a 10495 08:28:49,280 --> 08:28:54,958 dense functional city isn't just a 10496 08:28:51,680 --> 08:28:56,798 choice, it's a competitive necessity. 10497 08:28:54,958 --> 08:28:58,798 >> Ultimately, private car ownership is 10498 08:28:56,798 --> 08:29:00,398 going to become obsolete. Cities are 10499 08:28:58,798 --> 08:29:02,080 building for pedestrians. They're 10500 08:29:00,398 --> 08:29:04,638 building for cycling. They're building 10501 08:29:02,080 --> 08:29:06,558 for livability, not for cars. 10502 08:29:04,638 --> 08:29:08,718 >> Throughout this documentary, we have 10503 08:29:06,558 --> 08:29:11,840 seen the gears of a massive economic 10504 08:29:08,718 --> 08:29:14,718 machine. But there is a final myth we 10505 08:29:11,840 --> 08:29:17,120 must dismantle. The idea that cities 10506 08:29:14,718 --> 08:29:19,600 like Amsterdam or Valencia look like 10507 08:29:17,120 --> 08:29:22,080 this because their citizens are simply 10508 08:29:19,600 --> 08:29:25,840 different. History tells a different 10509 08:29:22,080 --> 08:29:27,760 story. In the 1970s, Amsterdam was on 10510 08:29:25,840 --> 08:29:30,478 the verge of becoming another car 10511 08:29:27,760 --> 08:29:33,040 ccentric congested metropolis. 10512 08:29:30,478 --> 08:29:35,760 The transition we see today wasn't a 10513 08:29:33,040 --> 08:29:38,318 natural evolution of culture. It was a 10514 08:29:35,760 --> 08:29:41,200 hostile takeover of urban space by a 10515 08:29:38,318 --> 08:29:43,440 policy and planning. When a city reaches 10516 08:29:41,200 --> 08:29:45,280 a certain density, [music] freedom of 10517 08:29:43,440 --> 08:29:47,520 choice in transport becomes a 10518 08:29:45,280 --> 08:29:51,120 mathematical impossibility. [music] 10519 08:29:47,520 --> 08:29:53,040 If everyone chooses a car, no one moves. 10520 08:29:51,120 --> 08:29:55,760 In this high stakes environment, 10521 08:29:53,040 --> 08:29:58,240 planning is not an option. It is the 10522 08:29:55,760 --> 08:30:01,280 only way to survive. What is the 10523 08:29:58,240 --> 08:30:04,160 ultimate harvest of this planning? It is 10524 08:30:01,280 --> 08:30:06,240 the 3% GDP boost we mentioned at the 10525 08:30:04,160 --> 08:30:08,080 start. But it's also found [music] in 10526 08:30:06,240 --> 08:30:11,200 the margins, 10527 08:30:08,080 --> 08:30:13,120 the fiscal savings by avoiding the need 10528 08:30:11,200 --> 08:30:14,958 for multi-billion euro highway 10529 08:30:13,120 --> 08:30:16,878 expansions [music] and massive health 10530 08:30:14,958 --> 08:30:18,558 care costs related to sedentary 10531 08:30:16,878 --> 08:30:21,600 lifestyles. 10532 08:30:18,558 --> 08:30:23,840 The resilience factor by creating a 10533 08:30:21,600 --> 08:30:26,638 circular metropolis that can process its 10534 08:30:23,840 --> 08:30:28,638 own waste at the Kruu depot and turn it 10535 08:30:26,638 --> 08:30:30,478 back into capital. 10536 08:30:28,638 --> 08:30:32,798 The talent magnet [music] 10537 08:30:30,478 --> 08:30:34,958 in the global war for talent. Highly 10538 08:30:32,798 --> 08:30:37,760 skilled workers choose cities based on 10539 08:30:34,958 --> 08:30:39,942 livability. Amsterdam's bicycle 10540 08:30:37,760 --> 08:30:42,160 infrastructure is its most effective 10541 08:30:39,942 --> 08:30:44,000 [music] recruitment tool. We started 10542 08:30:42,160 --> 08:30:47,200 this journey looking at a simple 10543 08:30:44,000 --> 08:30:49,840 machine, two wheels and a frame. But as 10544 08:30:47,200 --> 08:30:52,718 we've seen, the bicycle in Amsterdam is 10545 08:30:49,840 --> 08:30:54,878 much more than a transport mode. It is a 10546 08:30:52,718 --> 08:30:58,000 financial instrument. It [music] is a 10547 08:30:54,878 --> 08:31:00,798 spatial optimizer. It is the invisible 10548 08:30:58,000 --> 08:31:03,520 engine that allows a medieval city to 10549 08:31:00,798 --> 08:31:05,280 function as a 21st century economic 10550 08:31:03,520 --> 08:31:08,240 powerhouse. 10551 08:31:05,280 --> 08:31:10,718 The €85 million spent on underwater 10552 08:31:08,240 --> 08:31:13,760 tunnels, the complex logistics of the 10553 08:31:10,718 --> 08:31:16,958 Kruquest Depo, or the new Mediterranean 10554 08:31:13,760 --> 08:31:20,160 bike lanes are not costs. They are 10555 08:31:16,958 --> 08:31:22,718 investments in [music] resilience. 10556 08:31:20,160 --> 08:31:24,958 In a world of rising energy prices and 10557 08:31:22,718 --> 08:31:26,958 shrinking urban space, the Amsterdam 10558 08:31:24,958 --> 08:31:29,200 model offers a glimpse into [music] the 10559 08:31:26,958 --> 08:31:32,080 future. It proves that the most 10560 08:31:29,200 --> 08:31:34,798 sophisticated technology isn't always a 10561 08:31:32,080 --> 08:31:38,318 new gadget. Sometimes it's the perfect 10562 08:31:34,798 --> 08:31:41,958 integration of an old idea into a new 10563 08:31:38,318 --> 08:31:41,958 circular world. 10564 08:32:38,958 --> 08:32:41,958 Imagine 10565 08:32:57,840 --> 08:33:01,600 for a moment, what if your Bitcoin 10566 08:32:59,840 --> 08:33:03,600 holdings could purchase more than just 10567 08:33:01,600 --> 08:33:06,160 everyday items like coffee or the latest 10568 08:33:03,600 --> 08:33:08,080 gadgets? What if that digital currency 10569 08:33:06,160 --> 08:33:10,478 sitting in your wallet could actually 10570 08:33:08,080 --> 08:33:14,280 buy you a house or perhaps even an 10571 08:33:10,478 --> 08:33:14,280 entire [music] commercial building? 10572 08:33:24,878 --> 08:33:28,934 Welcome to the fascinating and rapidly 10573 08:33:26,958 --> 08:33:30,718 evolving world of crypto real estate, 10574 08:33:28,934 --> 08:33:35,318 [music] where digital assets are being 10575 08:33:30,718 --> 08:33:35,318 transformed into tangible property. 10576 08:33:39,200 --> 08:33:42,398 Today, we're taking a deep dive into the 10577 08:33:41,200 --> 08:33:44,398 revolutionary intersection of 10578 08:33:42,398 --> 08:33:46,718 cryptocurrency and property ownership, 10579 08:33:44,398 --> 08:33:48,878 examining in detail how Bitcoin [music] 10580 08:33:46,718 --> 08:33:51,120 is successfully transforming what were 10581 08:33:48,878 --> 08:33:53,280 once purely digital coins into tangible 10582 08:33:51,120 --> 08:33:54,498 physical real estate investments. 10583 08:33:53,280 --> 08:33:56,638 Whether you're an experienced crypto 10584 08:33:54,498 --> 08:33:58,798 [music] investor looking to diversify 10585 08:33:56,638 --> 08:34:00,398 your portfolio or simply someone who's 10586 08:33:58,798 --> 08:34:02,638 curious about emerging trends in 10587 08:34:00,398 --> 08:34:04,558 property markets, this is an in-depth 10588 08:34:02,638 --> 08:34:06,160 look at how the landscape and future of 10589 08:34:04,558 --> 08:34:08,318 real estate transactions is 10590 08:34:06,160 --> 08:34:10,878 fundamentally evolving and changing 10591 08:34:08,318 --> 08:34:12,878 before our eyes. 10592 08:34:10,878 --> 08:34:14,786 The financial world is in constant 10593 08:34:12,878 --> 08:34:16,558 transformation, but in this decade, 10594 08:34:14,786 --> 08:34:20,240 [music] digitalization has accelerated 10595 08:34:16,558 --> 08:34:23,120 that change faster than anyone imagined. 10596 08:34:20,240 --> 08:34:24,718 Today, money, investments, and assets 10597 08:34:23,120 --> 08:34:26,160 flow [music] through codes silent, 10598 08:34:24,718 --> 08:34:29,440 transparent, and borderless. 10599 08:34:26,160 --> 08:34:31,600 Cryptocurrencies led by Bitcoin mark the 10600 08:34:29,440 --> 08:34:33,124 beginning of a new era. They shook the 10601 08:34:31,600 --> 08:34:35,120 foundations of the global financial 10602 08:34:33,124 --> 08:34:37,680 [music] system, sparking both excitement 10603 08:34:35,120 --> 08:34:38,638 and skepticism. Yet, behind that 10604 08:34:37,680 --> 08:34:41,280 phenomenon [music] 10605 08:34:38,638 --> 08:34:44,280 emerged something even deeper. 10606 08:34:41,280 --> 08:34:44,280 Tokenization. 10607 08:34:46,398 --> 08:34:49,398 Contraos. 10608 08:35:05,200 --> 08:35:08,760 Real world assets. 10609 08:35:11,120 --> 08:35:14,120 Forech. 10610 08:35:41,120 --> 08:35:45,120 tokenization brings. So it's the most 10611 08:35:42,638 --> 08:35:46,798 suitable, most modern ledger technology 10612 08:35:45,120 --> 08:35:47,440 uh ideal for modernizing capital 10613 08:35:46,798 --> 08:35:50,638 markets. 10614 08:35:47,440 --> 08:35:52,638 >> The idea is simple, the impact enormous. 10615 08:35:50,638 --> 08:35:55,280 Each token represents a fraction of an 10616 08:35:52,638 --> 08:35:57,280 asset, a share, a bond, a property, or 10617 08:35:55,280 --> 08:35:59,360 even a work of art, all recorded on a 10618 08:35:57,280 --> 08:36:02,360 blockchain, a global tamper proof 10619 08:35:59,360 --> 08:36:02,360 ledger. 10620 08:36:03,516 --> 08:36:08,280 [music] 10621 08:36:05,280 --> 08:36:08,280 Okay. 10622 08:36:19,520 --> 08:36:22,920 Smart contracts. 10623 08:36:33,920 --> 08:36:36,920 bureau. 10624 08:36:37,200 --> 08:36:41,200 >> We believe the next step going forward 10625 08:36:39,040 --> 08:36:45,120 will be the tokenization of financial 10626 08:36:41,200 --> 08:36:48,080 assets and that means every stock, every 10627 08:36:45,120 --> 08:36:49,920 bond will have its own basically QIP. 10628 08:36:48,080 --> 08:36:52,398 It'll be on one general ledger. [music] 10629 08:36:49,920 --> 08:36:54,878 In other words, a token isn't just an 10630 08:36:52,398 --> 08:36:57,200 asset. It's a digital entry in a new 10631 08:36:54,878 --> 08:36:59,600 kind of ledger that is rewriting how 10632 08:36:57,200 --> 08:37:01,156 capital markets keep their books. 10633 08:36:59,600 --> 08:37:01,760 Investment in tokenized real estates 10634 08:37:01,156 --> 08:37:03,280 [music] 10635 08:37:01,760 --> 08:37:05,520 represents one of the most recent 10636 08:37:03,280 --> 08:37:07,760 advancements in the property industry. 10637 08:37:05,520 --> 08:37:10,240 Tokenization [music] enables houses and 10638 08:37:07,760 --> 08:37:14,280 apartments to be divided and sold and 10639 08:37:10,240 --> 08:37:14,280 numerous smaller units. 10640 08:37:20,798 --> 08:37:23,798 Foreom 10641 08:37:52,902 --> 08:37:54,922 >> [music] 10642 08:38:00,718 --> 08:38:05,040 >> small programs act like a bridge between 10643 08:38:02,478 --> 08:38:06,798 a property and online trading platform. 10644 08:38:05,040 --> 08:38:08,318 Hence, tokens create a digital 10645 08:38:06,798 --> 08:38:09,600 representation of a property 10646 08:38:08,318 --> 08:38:12,600 facilitating its [music] digital 10647 08:38:09,600 --> 08:38:12,600 transfer. 10648 08:38:14,080 --> 08:38:18,000 The process of purchasing a property is 10649 08:38:16,240 --> 08:38:20,398 still associated with significant 10650 08:38:18,000 --> 08:38:21,040 bureaucracy, lengthy procedures, and 10651 08:38:20,398 --> 08:38:22,878 subsequent [music] 10652 08:38:21,040 --> 08:38:26,160 high costs. 10653 08:38:22,878 --> 08:38:28,558 So what exactly is crypto real estate? 10654 08:38:26,160 --> 08:38:30,878 At its core, the term refers to any real 10655 08:38:28,558 --> 08:38:33,680 estate transaction where cryptocurrency 10656 08:38:30,878 --> 08:38:36,160 plays a major role either as a direct 10657 08:38:33,680 --> 08:38:40,440 form of payment, a converted asset, or 10658 08:38:36,160 --> 08:38:40,440 collateral for purchasing property. 10659 08:38:43,440 --> 08:38:46,600 real estate, 10660 08:38:48,000 --> 08:38:51,000 Bitcoins. 10661 08:39:07,840 --> 08:39:12,040 Crypto reference loans. 10662 08:39:31,680 --> 08:39:36,638 But the concept goes even deeper than 10663 08:39:34,398 --> 08:39:38,638 that. Crypto real estate includes buying 10664 08:39:36,638 --> 08:39:40,718 a home directly with Bitcoin or other 10665 08:39:38,638 --> 08:39:43,840 cryptocurrencies, using stable coins 10666 08:39:40,718 --> 08:39:46,798 like USDT or USDC for a more stable 10667 08:39:43,840 --> 08:39:48,638 purchase, converting crypto into fiat at 10668 08:39:46,798 --> 08:39:50,160 closing, taking out loans backed by 10669 08:39:48,638 --> 08:39:51,840 cryptocurrency to purchase real 10670 08:39:50,160 --> 08:39:53,840 property, tokenized real estate where 10671 08:39:51,840 --> 08:39:55,440 ownership is fractionalized into digital 10672 08:39:53,840 --> 08:39:57,120 token, blockchain based property 10673 08:39:55,440 --> 08:40:00,120 records, and smart contract driven 10674 08:39:57,120 --> 08:40:00,120 transactions. 10675 08:40:12,240 --> 08:40:15,638 Stable coins. 10676 08:40:28,878 --> 08:40:32,360 Stable coins. 10677 08:40:41,040 --> 08:40:46,520 EMT. E A R T 10678 08:40:54,718 --> 08:40:58,840 U USDT 10679 08:41:02,638 --> 08:41:05,638 USDC 10680 08:41:18,080 --> 08:41:21,080 US 10681 08:41:25,360 --> 08:41:28,840 stable coinry. 10682 08:41:40,798 --> 08:41:43,798 for 10683 08:42:09,600 --> 08:42:12,240 example. 10684 08:42:21,120 --> 08:42:25,440 It's an evolution in how value moves 10685 08:42:23,360 --> 08:42:27,600 around the world. And for the first 10686 08:42:25,440 --> 08:42:32,040 time, digital wealth is becoming a 10687 08:42:27,600 --> 08:42:32,040 direct pathway to physical ownership. 10688 08:42:33,680 --> 08:42:37,440 To understand how we arrived at this 10689 08:42:35,680 --> 08:42:40,000 moment, we need to step back and look at 10690 08:42:37,440 --> 08:42:42,080 the timeline. Bitcoin launched in 2009 10691 08:42:40,000 --> 08:42:44,000 as a peer-to-peer digital alternative to 10692 08:42:42,080 --> 08:42:45,840 money. In its early years, the idea of 10693 08:42:44,000 --> 08:42:48,160 using Bitcoin to buy real estate was 10694 08:42:45,840 --> 08:42:50,398 laughable. But Bitcoin grew, first 10695 08:42:48,160 --> 08:42:52,958 crossing $1, then a 100, then a 10696 08:42:50,398 --> 08:42:55,520 thousand, then tens of thousands. A new 10697 08:42:52,958 --> 08:42:57,520 wave of wealth was created. Suddenly, 10698 08:42:55,520 --> 08:42:59,680 early adopters who once bought pizza 10699 08:42:57,520 --> 08:43:02,718 with Bitcoin now had enough digital 10700 08:42:59,680 --> 08:43:05,040 value to buy entire homes, and sellers 10701 08:43:02,718 --> 08:43:07,040 began paying attention. The first public 10702 08:43:05,040 --> 08:43:09,920 record of a property purchased fully in 10703 08:43:07,040 --> 08:43:11,760 Bitcoin. and dates back to 2017. From 10704 08:43:09,920 --> 08:43:14,398 there, the trend spread to luxury 10705 08:43:11,760 --> 08:43:16,798 markets. Miami, Los Angeles, New York, 10706 08:43:14,398 --> 08:43:18,798 Dubai, and London. Developers began 10707 08:43:16,798 --> 08:43:20,958 marketing properties specifically to 10708 08:43:18,798 --> 08:43:23,760 crypto buyers. Brokers started 10709 08:43:20,958 --> 08:43:26,318 specializing in crypto transactions. 10710 08:43:23,760 --> 08:43:28,160 Escrow companies adapted. 10711 08:43:26,318 --> 08:43:31,440 Even governments began studying 10712 08:43:28,160 --> 08:43:34,000 blockchainbased property registries. 10713 08:43:31,440 --> 08:43:36,478 Buying real estate with Bitcoin isn't 10714 08:43:34,000 --> 08:43:38,398 science fiction. Some sellers now accept 10715 08:43:36,478 --> 08:43:40,318 crypto directly, while others work 10716 08:43:38,398 --> 08:43:43,520 through brokers who convert Bitcoin into 10717 08:43:40,318 --> 08:43:45,680 local currency. The process is faster, 10718 08:43:43,520 --> 08:43:48,000 borderless, and sometimes even tax 10719 08:43:45,680 --> 08:43:50,398 efficient if you know the rules. Things 10720 08:43:48,000 --> 08:43:53,840 that sounded impossible in 2010 became 10721 08:43:50,398 --> 08:43:56,080 normal by 2020. And now in the 2020s, 10722 08:43:53,840 --> 08:43:57,840 cryptocurrency is becoming a serious 10723 08:43:56,080 --> 08:44:00,160 player in global [music] real estate. 10724 08:43:57,840 --> 08:44:02,000 The crypto boom has created a new class 10725 08:44:00,160 --> 08:44:04,000 of investors. High- netw worth 10726 08:44:02,000 --> 08:44:06,080 individuals [music] want to diversify 10727 08:44:04,000 --> 08:44:08,798 and real estate is a safe tangible 10728 08:44:06,080 --> 08:44:11,360 asset. From luxury homes in Miami to 10729 08:44:08,798 --> 08:44:13,680 condos in Dubai, Bitcoin buyers are 10730 08:44:11,360 --> 08:44:15,426 making their mark. Let's look at a few 10731 08:44:13,680 --> 08:44:17,040 real world examples to understand how 10732 08:44:15,426 --> 08:44:20,478 [music] crypto real estate works in 10733 08:44:17,040 --> 08:44:22,958 practice. Case study one. In 2021, a 10734 08:44:20,478 --> 08:44:25,440 luxury penthouse at Arte by Antonio 10735 08:44:22,958 --> 08:44:28,878 Satario in Surfside, Florida made 10736 08:44:25,440 --> 08:44:30,798 history. The property sold for $22.5 10737 08:44:28,878 --> 08:44:33,120 million, paid entirely in 10738 08:44:30,798 --> 08:44:35,280 cryptocurrency. The largest publicly 10739 08:44:33,120 --> 08:44:37,840 known real estate transaction completed 10740 08:44:35,280 --> 08:44:39,360 using digital assets at the time. A 10741 08:44:37,840 --> 08:44:41,680 developer's decision to accept 10742 08:44:39,360 --> 08:44:43,680 cryptocurrency had paid off. The sale 10743 08:44:41,680 --> 08:44:45,360 came just weeks after the developer 10744 08:44:43,680 --> 08:44:47,200 announced it would begin accepting 10745 08:44:45,360 --> 08:44:48,318 cryptocurrency payments through a 10746 08:44:47,200 --> 08:44:50,160 partnership [music] with blockchain 10747 08:44:48,318 --> 08:44:52,000 platform Solid Block. According to 10748 08:44:50,160 --> 08:44:54,240 Forbes, the deal demonstrated that 10749 08:44:52,000 --> 08:44:57,040 crypto was no longer just a speculative 10750 08:44:54,240 --> 08:44:59,600 asset. It had become a viable method for 10751 08:44:57,040 --> 08:45:02,398 purchasing high-end real estate. Case 10752 08:44:59,600 --> 08:45:04,638 study 2. In Dubai, one of the earliest 10753 08:45:02,398 --> 08:45:07,120 large-scale experiments with crypto real 10754 08:45:04,638 --> 08:45:09,520 estate unfolded at Aston Plaza and 10755 08:45:07,120 --> 08:45:12,160 residences located in Dubai Science 10756 08:45:09,520 --> 08:45:13,840 Park. Marketed as one of the first major 10757 08:45:12,160 --> 08:45:15,760 developments in the region to accept 10758 08:45:13,840 --> 08:45:17,440 Bitcoin. The project offered [music] 10759 08:45:15,760 --> 08:45:19,040 apartments priced directly in 10760 08:45:17,440 --> 08:45:21,040 cryptocurrency. 10761 08:45:19,040 --> 08:45:23,840 Buyers were able to commit funds using 10762 08:45:21,040 --> 08:45:25,680 Bitcoin, capturing global attention. But 10763 08:45:23,840 --> 08:45:28,638 the story also revealed the risks of 10764 08:45:25,680 --> 08:45:32,080 innovation. Originally advertised as a 10765 08:45:28,638 --> 08:45:34,240 $325 million development. The project 10766 08:45:32,080 --> 08:45:36,638 later stalled and its completion became 10767 08:45:34,240 --> 08:45:39,520 uncertain. While crypto payments were 10768 08:45:36,638 --> 08:45:41,680 accepted, it remains unclear whether all 10769 08:45:39,520 --> 08:45:44,080 buyers ultimately received finished 10770 08:45:41,680 --> 08:45:46,558 properties. The case highlighted both 10771 08:45:44,080 --> 08:45:48,718 the promise and the pitfalls of early 10772 08:45:46,558 --> 08:45:51,760 crypto adoption [music] real estate. 10773 08:45:48,718 --> 08:45:52,958 Case study three. In 2025, Spain 10774 08:45:51,760 --> 08:45:54,718 recorded one [music] of its first 10775 08:45:52,958 --> 08:45:57,200 officially reported property sales 10776 08:45:54,718 --> 08:45:59,920 completed with Bitcoin. A property in 10777 08:45:57,200 --> 08:46:01,920 Madrid valued at approximately 1.5 10778 08:45:59,920 --> 08:46:04,080 million of euros was purchased by an 10779 08:46:01,920 --> 08:46:06,000 international buyer using Bitcoin. The 10780 08:46:04,080 --> 08:46:08,638 transaction followed standard real 10781 08:46:06,000 --> 08:46:11,040 estate procedures, including escrow, 10782 08:46:08,638 --> 08:46:13,360 legal compliance, and the conversion of 10783 08:46:11,040 --> 08:46:15,360 crypto into euros for the seller. It 10784 08:46:13,360 --> 08:46:16,558 marked a significant milestone showing 10785 08:46:15,360 --> 08:46:18,478 that cryptocurrency [music] could 10786 08:46:16,558 --> 08:46:20,558 integrate into traditional real estate 10787 08:46:18,478 --> 08:46:23,120 systems even in highly regulated 10788 08:46:20,558 --> 08:46:25,520 European markets. Case [music] study 4. 10789 08:46:23,120 --> 08:46:27,680 In the United States, crypto adoption 10790 08:46:25,520 --> 08:46:29,920 hasn't been limited to coastal tech 10791 08:46:27,680 --> 08:46:32,318 hubs. [music] An agent with Safabis 10792 08:46:29,920 --> 08:46:35,120 International Realy in Delaware reported 10793 08:46:32,318 --> 08:46:38,000 selling a luxury property for $175 10794 08:46:35,120 --> 08:46:40,080 million paid in Bitcoin. Believed to be 10795 08:46:38,000 --> 08:46:41,760 one of the state's first major real 10796 08:46:40,080 --> 08:46:42,798 estate transactions involving 10797 08:46:41,760 --> 08:46:44,958 cryptocurrency, [music] 10798 08:46:42,798 --> 08:46:47,200 the sale was widely publicized as a 10799 08:46:44,958 --> 08:46:48,798 local milestone, signaling that crypto 10800 08:46:47,200 --> 08:46:50,638 real estate was beginning to reach 10801 08:46:48,798 --> 08:46:54,680 beyond niche markets and [music] into 10802 08:46:50,638 --> 08:46:54,680 everyday property transactions. 10803 08:46:55,440 --> 08:46:58,578 Genius Act. [music] 10804 08:47:14,240 --> 08:47:17,240 daughter. 10805 08:47:28,654 --> 08:47:30,674 [music] 10806 08:47:53,360 --> 08:47:56,360 Maximum. 10807 08:48:46,318 --> 08:48:50,878 Taken together, these cases tell a 10808 08:48:48,318 --> 08:48:53,120 larger story. one of experimentation, 10809 08:48:50,878 --> 08:48:55,440 success, setbacks, and growing 10810 08:48:53,120 --> 08:48:57,680 legitimacy. Crypto real estate is no 10811 08:48:55,440 --> 08:48:59,920 longer hypothetical. It's happening 10812 08:48:57,680 --> 08:49:03,680 transaction by transaction across the 10813 08:48:59,920 --> 08:49:05,520 globe. But it's not all smooth sailing. 10814 08:49:03,680 --> 08:49:07,920 Crypto's value can be volatile. 10815 08:49:05,520 --> 08:49:10,398 Regulations vary by country, and tax 10816 08:49:07,920 --> 08:49:12,718 implications can be tricky. First, 10817 08:49:10,398 --> 08:49:14,878 volatility. Bitcoin and other 10818 08:49:12,718 --> 08:49:16,718 cryptocurrencies can move dramatically, 10819 08:49:14,878 --> 08:49:18,558 sometimes losing or gaining a third of 10820 08:49:16,718 --> 08:49:20,878 their value in weeks. for buyers who 10821 08:49:18,558 --> 08:49:24,318 convert at closing. Rapid swings can 10822 08:49:20,878 --> 08:49:27,440 erase gains or spike costs and hours. 10823 08:49:24,318 --> 08:49:29,520 Second, transaction mechanics and title. 10824 08:49:27,440 --> 08:49:31,600 Even when a seller accepts crypto, most 10825 08:49:29,520 --> 08:49:33,040 governments and land registries require 10826 08:49:31,600 --> 08:49:35,360 deeds to be issued in the local 10827 08:49:33,040 --> 08:49:37,600 currency. That usually means an 10828 08:49:35,360 --> 08:49:39,520 intermediary converts crypto to fiat 10829 08:49:37,600 --> 08:49:41,680 before the legal title is registered, 10830 08:49:39,520 --> 08:49:43,440 adding counterparty risk and an extra 10831 08:49:41,680 --> 08:49:46,318 step that can delay and complicate 10832 08:49:43,440 --> 08:49:48,000 settlements. Third, taxes. In many 10833 08:49:46,318 --> 08:49:50,160 jurisdictions, authorities treat crypto 10834 08:49:48,000 --> 08:49:52,080 as property, not currency, which makes 10835 08:49:50,160 --> 08:49:54,398 nearly every transfer a taxable event. 10836 08:49:52,080 --> 08:49:56,478 That includes sales, exchanges, and 10837 08:49:54,398 --> 08:49:58,718 sometimes even payments for goods or 10838 08:49:56,478 --> 08:50:00,958 services. Buyers and sellers must track 10839 08:49:58,718 --> 08:50:03,120 cost basis, gains, and report the 10840 08:50:00,958 --> 08:50:05,680 transactions accurately or face audits 10841 08:50:03,120 --> 08:50:07,600 and penalties. Fourth, lending and 10842 08:50:05,680 --> 08:50:09,200 counterparty risk. Cryptoback lending 10843 08:50:07,600 --> 08:50:11,040 exploded in the previous market cycle, 10844 08:50:09,200 --> 08:50:13,280 but it ended with high-profile collapses 10845 08:50:11,040 --> 08:50:15,120 and bankruptcies. When platforms fail, 10846 08:50:13,280 --> 08:50:17,040 borrowers and depositors can lose access 10847 08:50:15,120 --> 08:50:18,718 to funds. Collateral can be liquidated 10848 08:50:17,040 --> 08:50:20,478 at a loss and promise liquidity 10849 08:50:18,718 --> 08:50:22,398 disappears, a danger for anyone relying 10850 08:50:20,478 --> 08:50:24,558 on thirdparty services to bridge crypto 10851 08:50:22,398 --> 08:50:25,920 and property purchases. 10852 08:50:24,558 --> 08:50:28,398 Fifth, compliance and 10853 08:50:25,920 --> 08:50:30,080 anti-moneyaundering rules. Regulators 10854 08:50:28,398 --> 08:50:31,920 and global bodies have tightened rules 10855 08:50:30,080 --> 08:50:34,160 around virtual assets to prevent illicit 10856 08:50:31,920 --> 08:50:36,558 flows. Real estate transactions are high 10857 08:50:34,160 --> 08:50:38,240 on that list, meaning additional KYC, 10858 08:50:36,558 --> 08:50:40,318 source of fund checks, and reporting 10859 08:50:38,240 --> 08:50:42,160 requirements. Failure to meet these 10860 08:50:40,318 --> 08:50:44,478 standards can stall a sale, trigger 10861 08:50:42,160 --> 08:50:47,600 investigations, or expose participants 10862 08:50:44,478 --> 08:50:49,280 to legal liability. Sixth, operational 10863 08:50:47,600 --> 08:50:51,360 and technical risk. Crypto [music] 10864 08:50:49,280 --> 08:50:53,280 transactions are irreversible. A single 10865 08:50:51,360 --> 08:50:54,958 wrong character in a wallet address or a 10866 08:50:53,280 --> 08:50:56,638 fishing attack on an email with wiring 10867 08:50:54,958 --> 08:50:58,080 instructions can send millions to the 10868 08:50:56,638 --> 08:51:00,478 wrong place, and there's no bank to 10869 08:50:58,080 --> 08:51:02,878 reverse the transfer. Seven, technology 10870 08:51:00,478 --> 08:51:04,878 risk, smart contracts, tokenization, and 10871 08:51:02,878 --> 08:51:06,958 new platforms bring innovation, but also 10872 08:51:04,878 --> 08:51:08,958 software bugs and design flaws. A poorly 10873 08:51:06,958 --> 08:51:11,280 written smart contract or an unodudited 10874 08:51:08,958 --> 08:51:13,520 tokenization platform can freeze assets, 10875 08:51:11,280 --> 08:51:16,240 misallocate ownership shares or enable 10876 08:51:13,520 --> 08:51:18,000 exploits. Finally, market [music] and 10877 08:51:16,240 --> 08:51:19,520 reputational risk. Developers and 10878 08:51:18,000 --> 08:51:21,120 brokers who accept crypto can attract 10879 08:51:19,520 --> 08:51:23,040 new buyers, but they also take on 10880 08:51:21,120 --> 08:51:24,458 greater scrutiny, regulatory compliance 10881 08:51:23,040 --> 08:51:26,318 burdens, and the risk that projects 10882 08:51:24,458 --> 08:51:28,558 [music] promoted with crypto funding may 10883 08:51:26,318 --> 08:51:31,360 underdel, stall, or become entangled in 10884 08:51:28,558 --> 08:51:33,680 legal disputes. In short, crypto can 10885 08:51:31,360 --> 08:51:36,240 speed and globalize property deals, but 10886 08:51:33,680 --> 08:51:38,878 it also layers on volatility, regulatory 10887 08:51:36,240 --> 08:51:40,958 complexity, and new failure modes. For 10888 08:51:38,878 --> 08:51:43,280 buyers, sellers, and advisers, the 10889 08:51:40,958 --> 08:51:45,120 lesson is clear. Proceed with rigorous 10890 08:51:43,280 --> 08:51:47,680 legal counsel, hardened custody 10891 08:51:45,120 --> 08:51:49,760 practices, and transparent compliance. 10892 08:51:47,680 --> 08:51:52,760 The opportunity is real, but so are the 10893 08:51:49,760 --> 08:51:52,760 pitfalls. 10894 08:52:11,360 --> 08:52:16,478 Still, the opportunities are huge. A new 10895 08:52:14,318 --> 08:52:18,318 generation of buyers is turning digital 10896 08:52:16,478 --> 08:52:21,360 value into physical assets. [music] For 10897 08:52:18,318 --> 08:52:24,000 many, Bitcoin isn't just a currency. 10898 08:52:21,360 --> 08:52:25,280 It's a gateway to ownership. 10899 08:52:24,000 --> 08:52:27,520 One of the biggest shifts is 10900 08:52:25,280 --> 08:52:29,440 tokenization. Instead of buying an 10901 08:52:27,520 --> 08:52:31,200 entire building, investors can [music] 10902 08:52:29,440 --> 08:52:33,680 now purchase fractional ownership 10903 08:52:31,200 --> 08:52:35,440 through blockchainbased tokens. This 10904 08:52:33,680 --> 08:52:37,520 lowers the barrier to entry, allowing 10905 08:52:35,440 --> 08:52:38,878 smaller investors to access real estate 10906 08:52:37,520 --> 08:52:43,318 markets [music] that were once reserved 10907 08:52:38,878 --> 08:52:43,318 for institutions and the ultra wealthy. 10908 08:52:45,024 --> 08:52:47,042 [music] 10909 08:52:49,440 --> 08:52:52,440 forction. 10910 08:52:54,848 --> 08:52:56,868 [music] 10911 08:53:03,364 --> 08:53:05,382 [music] 10912 08:53:27,920 --> 08:53:32,798 Tokenization also brings liquidity to an 10913 08:53:30,798 --> 08:53:35,200 industry that has traditionally been 10914 08:53:32,798 --> 08:53:37,600 slow and illquid. Real estate 10915 08:53:35,200 --> 08:53:39,040 transactions can take months. Tokenized 10916 08:53:37,600 --> 08:53:41,920 shares can potentially [music] be 10917 08:53:39,040 --> 08:53:44,160 transferred in minutes. Crypto is also 10918 08:53:41,920 --> 08:53:45,940 reshaping crossber real estate. 10919 08:53:44,160 --> 08:53:47,840 International buyers often face currency 10920 08:53:45,940 --> 08:53:50,558 [music] controls, wire delays, and 10921 08:53:47,840 --> 08:53:52,478 banking restrictions. Cryptocurrency 10922 08:53:50,558 --> 08:53:54,000 allows capital to move globally with 10923 08:53:52,478 --> 08:53:55,840 fewer friction [music] points, opening 10924 08:53:54,000 --> 08:53:57,920 markets to buyers who were previously 10925 08:53:55,840 --> 08:53:59,920 locked out. As a result, cities that 10926 08:53:57,920 --> 08:54:01,840 embrace crypto-friendly regulations are 10927 08:53:59,920 --> 08:54:03,600 attracting global capital faster. 10928 08:54:01,840 --> 08:54:05,520 Developers are responding by marketing 10929 08:54:03,600 --> 08:54:08,080 properties directly to crypto holders, 10930 08:54:05,520 --> 08:54:09,440 not as a novelty, but as a strategy. 10931 08:54:08,080 --> 08:54:10,878 Governments are also exploring 10932 08:54:09,440 --> 08:54:13,200 blockchain for land registries [music] 10933 08:54:10,878 --> 08:54:15,120 and property records. Immutable ledgers 10934 08:54:13,200 --> 08:54:17,600 can reduce disputes, prevent title 10935 08:54:15,120 --> 08:54:19,680 fraud, and provide permanent verifiable 10936 08:54:17,600 --> 08:54:21,120 ownership history, especially in regions 10937 08:54:19,680 --> 08:54:23,520 where property rights are difficult to 10938 08:54:21,120 --> 08:54:25,840 enforce. This isn't a complete 10939 08:54:23,520 --> 08:54:28,160 replacement of traditional real estate. 10940 08:54:25,840 --> 08:54:30,160 It's a transformation. Crypto doesn't 10941 08:54:28,160 --> 08:54:32,318 eliminate the fundamentals. Location, 10942 08:54:30,160 --> 08:54:34,080 demand, and due diligence still matter, 10943 08:54:32,318 --> 08:54:35,840 but [music] it changes how value moves, 10944 08:54:34,080 --> 08:54:37,920 how quickly deals happen, and who gets 10945 08:54:35,840 --> 08:54:39,920 access. So, what does all of this mean 10946 08:54:37,920 --> 08:54:41,920 for you as an investor or future home 10947 08:54:39,920 --> 08:54:43,520 buyer? It means new opportunities are 10948 08:54:41,920 --> 08:54:45,280 emerging. Opportunities [music] to 10949 08:54:43,520 --> 08:54:47,200 leverage your crypto holdings. 10950 08:54:45,280 --> 08:54:49,440 Opportunities to participate in 10951 08:54:47,200 --> 08:54:50,878 international markets more easily. 10952 08:54:49,440 --> 08:54:55,398 Opportunities [music] to acquire 10953 08:54:50,878 --> 08:54:55,398 property faster and more efficiently. 10954 08:54:58,644 --> 08:55:00,664 [music] 10955 08:55:01,520 --> 08:55:04,520 for 10956 08:55:12,398 --> 08:55:14,418 [music] 10957 08:55:31,040 --> 08:55:34,040 Fore 10958 08:55:41,876 --> 08:55:43,894 [music] 10959 08:55:45,600 --> 08:55:48,760 real estate 10960 08:55:49,080 --> 08:55:51,100 [music] 10961 08:55:54,558 --> 08:55:56,994 system. [music] 10962 08:55:59,440 --> 08:56:03,544 Fore 10963 08:56:01,526 --> 08:56:03,544 [music] 10964 08:56:25,680 --> 08:56:29,090 real estate. [snorts] 10965 08:56:34,878 --> 08:56:39,280 But like any emerging [music] space, 10966 08:56:37,280 --> 08:56:41,480 education is key. Working with 10967 08:56:39,280 --> 08:56:43,120 crypto-friendly agents, attorneys, 10968 08:56:41,480 --> 08:56:44,798 [music] and escrow companies is 10969 08:56:43,120 --> 08:56:46,878 essential. 10970 08:56:44,798 --> 08:56:48,558 Understanding your local regulations is 10971 08:56:46,878 --> 08:56:50,318 crucial, and ensuring the security of 10972 08:56:48,558 --> 08:56:53,318 your crypto wallet is absolutely 10973 08:56:50,318 --> 08:56:53,318 non-negotiable. 10974 08:56:55,890 --> 08:57:00,280 >> [music] 10975 08:56:57,280 --> 08:57:00,280 >> for 10976 08:57:03,096 --> 08:57:08,360 [music] 10977 08:57:04,958 --> 08:57:08,360 sophistic. Finan. 10978 08:57:13,840 --> 08:57:16,840 for 10979 08:57:35,846 --> 08:57:37,866 [music] 10980 08:57:40,798 --> 08:57:45,360 companion 10981 08:57:43,280 --> 08:57:45,360 moment. 10982 08:57:53,360 --> 08:57:55,550 Finances. [music] 10983 08:58:02,702 --> 08:58:04,720 [music] 10984 08:58:14,958 --> 08:58:17,958 Absolute 10985 08:58:20,318 --> 08:58:23,318 maximos. 10986 08:58:28,246 --> 08:58:30,266 [music] 10987 08:58:35,452 --> 08:58:37,470 [music] 10988 08:58:42,656 --> 08:58:44,676 >> [music] 10989 08:58:50,518 --> 08:58:52,538 [music] 10990 08:58:57,200 --> 08:59:01,200 >> The cryptocurrency market has entered 10991 08:58:59,120 --> 08:59:03,600 the opening days of 2026 with [music] 10992 08:59:01,200 --> 08:59:06,478 renewed momentum. After a volatile end 10993 08:59:03,600 --> 08:59:08,080 to 2025, prices across major digital 10994 08:59:06,478 --> 08:59:09,760 assets have moved sharply higher, 10995 08:59:08,080 --> 08:59:11,120 drawing attention from both retail 10996 08:59:09,760 --> 08:59:13,920 traders and [music] institutional 10997 08:59:11,120 --> 08:59:15,760 investors. In early January, the total 10998 08:59:13,920 --> 08:59:18,318 cryptocurrency market capitalization 10999 08:59:15,760 --> 08:59:20,398 climbed to around $3.2 trillion, 11000 08:59:18,318 --> 08:59:22,398 according to aggregated data from major 11001 08:59:20,398 --> 08:59:24,638 market trackers. This represents a 11002 08:59:22,398 --> 08:59:26,398 meaningful rebound from late 2025 11003 08:59:24,638 --> 08:59:28,240 levels, with the market adding hundreds 11004 08:59:26,398 --> 08:59:30,080 of billions of dollars in value over a 11005 08:59:28,240 --> 08:59:32,000 relatively short period. While exact 11006 08:59:30,080 --> 08:59:33,440 figures vary, the direction is clear. 11007 08:59:32,000 --> 08:59:35,040 Capital has returned to the crypto 11008 08:59:33,440 --> 08:59:36,798 market at the start of the year. At the 11009 08:59:35,040 --> 08:59:39,360 center of this move is Bitcoin, which 11010 08:59:36,798 --> 08:59:41,760 rallied toward the $93,000 level in the 11011 08:59:39,360 --> 08:59:43,360 first week of January. As the largest 11012 08:59:41,760 --> 08:59:45,600 and most influential [music] digital 11013 08:59:43,360 --> 08:59:47,200 asset, Bitcoin continues to act as the 11014 08:59:45,600 --> 08:59:48,638 market's primary anchor, and its 11015 08:59:47,200 --> 08:59:50,718 strength has helped lift sentiment 11016 08:59:48,638 --> 08:59:52,478 across the broader ecosystem. 11017 08:59:50,718 --> 08:59:54,638 Historically, [music] strong Bitcoin 11018 08:59:52,478 --> 08:59:56,878 performance has often preceded periods 11019 08:59:54,638 --> 08:59:59,360 of increased activity in alternative 11020 08:59:56,878 --> 09:00:00,798 cryptocurrencies, and early 2026 [music] 11021 08:59:59,360 --> 09:00:02,878 appears to be following a similar 11022 09:00:00,798 --> 09:00:04,878 pattern. Another key factor has been 11023 09:00:02,878 --> 09:00:06,080 renewed institutional participation, 11024 09:00:04,878 --> 09:00:07,920 particularly through spot [music] 11025 09:00:06,080 --> 09:00:10,318 Bitcoin and Ethereum exchange traded 11026 09:00:07,920 --> 09:00:12,558 funds. Reports from early January 11027 09:00:10,318 --> 09:00:14,318 indicate notable ETF inflows, suggesting 11028 09:00:12,558 --> 09:00:16,160 that traditional investors are once 11029 09:00:14,318 --> 09:00:18,240 again increasing exposure to digital 11030 09:00:16,160 --> 09:00:19,598 assets. The current momentum appears to 11031 09:00:18,240 --> 09:00:21,920 be driven by a combination of factors, 11032 09:00:19,598 --> 09:00:24,558 [music] including Bitcoin's price 11033 09:00:21,920 --> 09:00:26,558 recovery, increased ETF inflows, 11034 09:00:24,558 --> 09:00:28,080 improved global risk sentiment, 11035 09:00:26,558 --> 09:00:30,558 expectations of more supportive 11036 09:00:28,080 --> 09:00:32,958 regulatory and macroeconomic conditions. 11037 09:00:30,558 --> 09:00:34,798 As 2026 begins, the cryptocurrency 11038 09:00:32,958 --> 09:00:36,958 market finds itself at a familiar 11039 09:00:34,798 --> 09:00:38,718 crossroads. Renewed optimism balanced 11040 09:00:36,958 --> 09:00:40,478 against persistent uncertainty. Whether 11041 09:00:38,718 --> 09:00:42,160 this early strength marks the beginning 11042 09:00:40,478 --> 09:00:43,840 of a sustained trend or simply [music] 11043 09:00:42,160 --> 09:00:45,840 another chapter in crypto's cyclical 11044 09:00:43,840 --> 09:00:48,478 nature is a question that only time will 11045 09:00:45,840 --> 09:00:51,200 answer. For now, [music] the message 11046 09:00:48,478 --> 09:00:53,200 from the market is clear. Crypto is once 11047 09:00:51,200 --> 09:00:54,718 again commanding attention. If you 11048 09:00:53,200 --> 09:00:56,318 approach crypto real estate with 11049 09:00:54,718 --> 09:00:59,120 knowledge and preparation, the [music] 11050 09:00:56,318 --> 09:01:01,840 rewards can be extraordinary. Bitcoin 11051 09:00:59,120 --> 09:01:03,680 the bricks isn't just a catchy phrase. 11052 09:01:01,840 --> 09:01:06,000 It's the future of real estate 11053 09:01:03,680 --> 09:01:07,920 investment. If you want to stay ahead of 11054 09:01:06,000 --> 09:01:10,240 the curve, now's the [music] time to 11055 09:01:07,920 --> 09:01:13,240 learn how crypto can open doors. 11056 09:01:10,240 --> 09:01:13,240 Literally. 11057 09:01:18,548 --> 09:01:20,568 [music] 11058 09:01:22,798 --> 09:01:25,798 important 11059 09:01:29,030 --> 09:01:31,048 [music] 11060 09:01:36,888 --> 09:01:38,908 [music] 11061 09:01:49,040 --> 09:01:52,664 technology. 11062 09:01:50,644 --> 09:01:52,664 >> [music] 11063 09:02:07,020 --> 09:02:09,040 [music] 11064 09:02:10,160 --> 09:02:14,000 >> From digital coins to physical assets, 11065 09:02:12,318 --> 09:02:16,080 from online wallets to real world 11066 09:02:14,000 --> 09:02:18,160 property lines, cryptocurrency is 11067 09:02:16,080 --> 09:02:19,680 reshaping how we buy, sell, and think 11068 09:02:18,160 --> 09:02:21,440 about real estate. 11069 09:02:19,680 --> 09:02:23,840 We are witnessing the merging of two 11070 09:02:21,440 --> 09:02:25,440 worlds. The oldest asset on earth and 11071 09:02:23,840 --> 09:02:27,600 one of the newest [music] technological 11072 09:02:25,440 --> 09:02:29,944 inventions of our time. And as the 11073 09:02:27,600 --> 09:02:32,240 future unfolds, only one question 11074 09:02:29,944 --> 09:02:35,184 [music] remain. Will Bitcoin buy your 11075 09:02:32,240 --> 09:02:37,204 next home? 11076 09:02:35,184 --> 09:02:37,204 [music] 11077 09:02:42,388 --> 09:02:44,408 [music] 11078 09:03:58,798 --> 09:04:04,160 September 2008. 11079 09:04:01,680 --> 09:04:06,318 The global financial system is on the 11080 09:04:04,160 --> 09:04:09,520 verge of a total blackout. [music] 11081 09:04:06,318 --> 09:04:12,638 Layman Brothers has vanished. Meil Lynch 11082 09:04:09,520 --> 09:04:15,520 is gone. AIG is hemorrhaging [music] 11083 09:04:12,638 --> 09:04:17,840 billions every hour. 11084 09:04:15,520 --> 09:04:19,760 In Washington, the halls of the Treasury 11085 09:04:17,840 --> 09:04:23,120 are filled with the smartest minds in 11086 09:04:19,760 --> 09:04:26,000 the country. But they have a problem. 11087 09:04:23,120 --> 09:04:28,958 They are staring at a black box of toxic 11088 09:04:26,000 --> 09:04:32,000 debt worth trillions and no tools to 11089 09:04:28,958 --> 09:04:35,040 open it. There is only one person who 11090 09:04:32,000 --> 09:04:37,520 has the map. one person who spent the 11091 09:04:35,040 --> 09:04:39,760 last 20 years building a digital 11092 09:04:37,520 --> 09:04:42,478 unblinking eye that can see through the 11093 09:04:39,760 --> 09:04:44,958 wreckage. The government didn't call the 11094 09:04:42,478 --> 09:04:47,496 big banks to save the world. They needed 11095 09:04:44,958 --> 09:04:49,040 someone to handle the toxic waste. 11096 09:04:47,496 --> 09:04:51,680 [music] And there was only one man that 11097 09:04:49,040 --> 09:04:56,120 could lead through that darkness. 11098 09:04:51,680 --> 09:04:56,120 They called Larry Frink. 11099 09:04:57,520 --> 09:05:03,160 Larry Frink, the man behind Black Rock. 11100 09:05:03,920 --> 09:05:10,398 Today, he manages more money than the 11101 09:05:06,000 --> 09:05:12,638 GDP of almost every nation on Earth, $14 11102 09:05:10,398 --> 09:05:14,638 trillion. 11103 09:05:12,638 --> 09:05:16,558 But before he was the shadow sovereign 11104 09:05:14,638 --> 09:05:18,638 of Wall [music] Street, he was a man who 11105 09:05:16,558 --> 09:05:21,556 lost everything. 11106 09:05:18,638 --> 09:05:22,398 Who is Larry Frink? Lawrence D.Fin, 11107 09:05:21,556 --> 09:05:24,798 [music] 11108 09:05:22,398 --> 09:05:26,796 also known as Larry Frink, is one of the 11109 09:05:24,798 --> 09:05:26,878 co-founders of Black Rockck. 11110 09:05:26,796 --> 09:05:29,920 >> [music] 11111 09:05:26,878 --> 09:05:32,160 >> He is also the chairman and CEO of the 11112 09:05:29,920 --> 09:05:34,958 company, the largest money management 11113 09:05:32,160 --> 09:05:37,120 firm in the world. It's the first time 11114 09:05:34,958 --> 09:05:39,760 in history a [music] company manages to 11115 09:05:37,120 --> 09:05:42,638 reach such a milestone and gives a clear 11116 09:05:39,760 --> 09:05:44,160 picture of how Black Rockck operates. 11117 09:05:42,638 --> 09:05:46,958 not just [music] a traditional 11118 09:05:44,160 --> 09:05:48,478 investment bank but as a central pillar 11119 09:05:46,958 --> 09:05:51,200 of the global financial [music] 11120 09:05:48,478 --> 09:05:53,440 infrastructure where its sheer scale 11121 09:05:51,200 --> 09:05:55,280 allows it to influence economies and 11122 09:05:53,440 --> 09:05:59,680 industries [music] at a level previously 11123 09:05:55,280 --> 09:06:02,240 reserved only for nation states. 11124 09:05:59,680 --> 09:06:04,878 Founded in [music] 1988 as an investment 11125 09:06:02,240 --> 09:06:07,680 firm that prioritized risk management 11126 09:06:04,878 --> 09:06:09,918 with 11.5 to$14 [music] 11127 09:06:07,680 --> 09:06:12,878 trillion under management, Black 11128 09:06:09,918 --> 09:06:14,398 Rockck's influence is staggering. 11129 09:06:12,878 --> 09:06:17,040 BlackRock is a top [music] three 11130 09:06:14,398 --> 09:06:21,160 shareholder in nearly every company in 11131 09:06:17,040 --> 09:06:24,238 the S&P 500 from Apple to Exxon, from 11132 09:06:21,160 --> 09:06:27,278 [music] Microsoft to Nestle. They don't 11133 09:06:24,238 --> 09:06:29,122 just invest in the market, they are the 11134 09:06:27,278 --> 09:06:31,918 market. [music] 11135 09:06:29,122 --> 09:06:34,160 But its reach is personal. It holds the 11136 09:06:31,918 --> 09:06:37,200 retirement dreams of [music] over 35 11137 09:06:34,160 --> 09:06:39,918 million Americans. This is the story of 11138 09:06:37,200 --> 09:06:42,160 how a kid from a California shoe store 11139 09:06:39,918 --> 09:06:46,800 became the custodian of the world's 11140 09:06:42,160 --> 09:06:47,918 wealth. But who is Larry Frink? Lawrence 11141 09:06:46,800 --> 09:06:50,398 Douglas Frink [music] 11142 09:06:47,918 --> 09:06:51,950 entered the world on November the 2nd, 11143 09:06:50,398 --> 09:06:54,718 1952. 11144 09:06:51,950 --> 09:06:56,878 [music] Born in Los Angeles, California, 11145 09:06:54,718 --> 09:06:59,122 he was raised in a Jewish family in the 11146 09:06:56,878 --> 09:07:01,122 heart of San Fernando Valley, the 11147 09:06:59,122 --> 09:07:03,520 quintessential [music] American suburb 11148 09:07:01,122 --> 09:07:05,704 of Vano. 11149 09:07:03,520 --> 09:07:08,480 His home was a balance of academic 11150 09:07:05,704 --> 09:07:10,290 [music] discipline and retail grit. His 11151 09:07:08,480 --> 09:07:12,398 mother, Leela, was an English professor 11152 09:07:10,290 --> 09:07:14,238 [music] who valued the power of language 11153 09:07:12,398 --> 09:07:15,680 and education. 11154 09:07:14,238 --> 09:07:18,000 And long before he pulled the [music] 11155 09:07:15,680 --> 09:07:20,160 strings of the global economy, Larry 11156 09:07:18,000 --> 09:07:23,278 Frink was learning the value of money on 11157 09:07:20,160 --> 09:07:26,320 a much smaller scale. His father's shoe 11158 09:07:23,278 --> 09:07:27,598 store in Vano, where he spent evenings 11159 09:07:26,320 --> 09:07:30,640 helping and learning the [music] 11160 09:07:27,598 --> 09:07:32,878 business. As one of three children, 11161 09:07:30,640 --> 09:07:35,040 Larry grew up in a household where hard 11162 09:07:32,878 --> 09:07:36,878 work wasn't [music] just encouraged, it 11163 09:07:35,040 --> 09:07:38,718 was the baseline. 11164 09:07:36,878 --> 09:07:40,960 While he often joked [music] he wasn't 11165 09:07:38,718 --> 09:07:43,122 the smartest in the room, it was this 11166 09:07:40,960 --> 09:07:45,278 specific combination of his mother's 11167 09:07:43,122 --> 09:07:47,680 intellectual curiosity [music] and his 11168 09:07:45,278 --> 09:07:50,078 father's mainstream business sense that 11169 09:07:47,680 --> 09:07:53,200 would eventually form the DNA of a 11170 09:07:50,078 --> 09:07:54,878 global financial giant. While the future 11171 09:07:53,200 --> 09:07:56,558 titans of Wall Street were rubbing 11172 09:07:54,878 --> 09:08:00,558 elbows in the marble halls [music] of 11173 09:07:56,558 --> 09:08:04,480 Harvard or Yale, Think was a brewin. In 11174 09:08:00,558 --> 09:08:07,122 1970, [music] Larry arrived at UCLA. For 11175 09:08:04,480 --> 09:08:09,918 a young man from Vanoise, this wasn't 11176 09:08:07,122 --> 09:08:11,680 just a local university. It was a world 11177 09:08:09,918 --> 09:08:13,360 of ideas. 11178 09:08:11,680 --> 09:08:16,078 But it was in his [music] final years 11179 09:08:13,360 --> 09:08:17,918 that the trajectory of his life shifted. 11180 09:08:16,078 --> 09:08:20,238 He immersed himself in political 11181 09:08:17,918 --> 09:08:21,918 science, learning how power moves 11182 09:08:20,238 --> 09:08:23,680 through nations. 11183 09:08:21,918 --> 09:08:26,640 But he soon realized that in the [music] 11184 09:08:23,680 --> 09:08:28,238 modern world, power follows the money. 11185 09:08:26,640 --> 09:08:30,320 This led him to the Anderson [music] 11186 09:08:28,238 --> 09:08:32,820 School of Management, specializing in 11187 09:08:30,320 --> 09:08:34,398 real estate. It was here that he began 11188 09:08:32,820 --> 09:08:37,758 [music] to see the world through the 11189 09:08:34,398 --> 09:08:39,680 lens of assets and yields. 11190 09:08:37,758 --> 09:08:41,988 This public education gave him a 11191 09:08:39,680 --> 09:08:43,758 different edge. While his peers at 11192 09:08:41,988 --> 09:08:45,598 [music] private East Coast schools were 11193 09:08:43,758 --> 09:08:47,758 being groomed for traditional corporate 11194 09:08:45,598 --> 09:08:50,320 roles, Larry [music] was developing the 11195 09:08:47,758 --> 09:08:52,558 outsers's eye, perspective that allowed 11196 09:08:50,320 --> 09:08:57,398 him to see opportunities in the messy, 11197 09:08:52,558 --> 09:08:57,398 unpolished corners of the bond market. 11198 09:08:58,000 --> 09:09:03,758 He graduated in 1976, [music] not with a 11199 09:09:01,278 --> 09:09:05,680 silver spoon, but with a California bred 11200 09:09:03,758 --> 09:09:07,278 ambition to take on the giants of 11201 09:09:05,680 --> 09:09:10,000 Manhattan. 11202 09:09:07,278 --> 09:09:11,758 He was a brewin headed for Wall Street 11203 09:09:10,000 --> 09:09:15,640 and [music] the financial world had no 11204 09:09:11,758 --> 09:09:15,640 idea what was coming. 11205 09:09:17,840 --> 09:09:22,320 The year is 1976. 11206 09:09:20,398 --> 09:09:24,480 New York City is a grit cover 11207 09:09:22,320 --> 09:09:27,200 battlefield and Larry Frink has just 11208 09:09:24,480 --> 09:09:29,520 been handed the keys to the kingdom. 11209 09:09:27,200 --> 09:09:31,758 Goldman Sachs, the most prestigious name 11210 09:09:29,520 --> 09:09:35,040 in finance back then, has practically 11211 09:09:31,758 --> 09:09:38,078 hired him. He had passed the technical 11212 09:09:35,040 --> 09:09:39,840 tests. He had charmed the partners. All 11213 09:09:38,078 --> 09:09:42,398 that remained was a rubber stamp 11214 09:09:39,840 --> 09:09:45,840 interview with human resources. 11215 09:09:42,398 --> 09:09:48,480 But Larry, Larry wasn't just confident. 11216 09:09:45,840 --> 09:09:50,320 He was impatient. When the recruiter 11217 09:09:48,480 --> 09:09:52,800 asked for his thoughts on the firm, 11218 09:09:50,320 --> 09:09:55,438 Larry didn't give a thank you. He gave a 11219 09:09:52,800 --> 09:09:57,918 consultation. He pointed out the flaws 11220 09:09:55,438 --> 09:10:01,040 in their system. At Goldman, they wanted 11221 09:09:57,918 --> 09:10:04,278 a soldier. Larry was already acting like 11222 09:10:01,040 --> 09:10:04,278 a general. 11223 09:10:05,840 --> 09:10:11,200 In that room, the rigid Golden Way 11224 09:10:08,160 --> 09:10:13,278 clashed with the unfiltered Frink way. 11225 09:10:11,200 --> 09:10:16,718 Before he could even hail a camp back to 11226 09:10:13,278 --> 09:10:19,040 his hotel, the offer was dead. The most 11227 09:10:16,718 --> 09:10:21,360 coveted job in Wall Street history had 11228 09:10:19,040 --> 09:10:23,200 vanished. All because Larry Frink 11229 09:10:21,360 --> 09:10:26,558 couldn't stop himself from trying to fix 11230 09:10:23,200 --> 09:10:29,598 a system he hadn't even joined yet. It 11231 09:10:26,558 --> 09:10:32,078 was a crushing blow. But in the shadow 11232 09:10:29,598 --> 09:10:34,320 of that rejection, a door opened at a 11233 09:10:32,078 --> 09:10:36,800 scrappy second tier firm called First 11234 09:10:34,320 --> 09:10:40,160 Boston. It was a place with less 11235 09:10:36,800 --> 09:10:42,480 prestige but more white space. At 11236 09:10:40,160 --> 09:10:45,520 Goldman, he would have been a cog in a 11237 09:10:42,480 --> 09:10:48,398 perfect machine. At First Boston, he was 11238 09:10:45,520 --> 09:10:50,398 the architect. He was given a desk, a 11239 09:10:48,398 --> 09:10:52,718 telephone, and the freedom to build 11240 09:10:50,398 --> 09:10:55,598 something entirely new, the 11241 09:10:52,718 --> 09:10:58,320 mortgagebacked security. He didn't know 11242 09:10:55,598 --> 09:11:00,960 it yet, but that recruiters know was the 11243 09:10:58,320 --> 09:11:05,960 foundation upon which the $14 trillion 11244 09:11:00,960 --> 09:11:05,960 empire of Black Rock would be built. 11245 09:11:10,020 --> 09:11:14,238 [music] 11246 09:11:10,960 --> 09:11:17,278 It's 1976 when Larry Frink arrives at 11247 09:11:14,238 --> 09:11:19,278 First Boston. At the time, the firm was 11248 09:11:17,278 --> 09:11:21,598 the scrappy underdog of investment 11249 09:11:19,278 --> 09:11:25,278 banking. It [music] wasn't as stiff as 11250 09:11:21,598 --> 09:11:27,520 Morgan Stanley or as elitist as Goldman. 11251 09:11:25,278 --> 09:11:30,480 It was the perfect laboratory for a man 11252 09:11:27,520 --> 09:11:33,040 who didn't fit the mold. Larry was 11253 09:11:30,480 --> 09:11:35,360 assigned to the bond department. Back 11254 09:11:33,040 --> 09:11:38,078 then, bonds were considered the boring 11255 09:11:35,360 --> 09:11:41,680 corner of finance. It was where you went 11256 09:11:38,078 --> 09:11:44,398 to retire. Stocks were sexy. Bonds were 11257 09:11:41,680 --> 09:11:47,520 for grandmothers. But Larry saw 11258 09:11:44,398 --> 09:11:49,758 something everyone else missed. [music] 11259 09:11:47,520 --> 09:11:52,480 He looked at the American dream. the 11260 09:11:49,758 --> 09:11:55,438 suburban house, the white picket fence, 11261 09:11:52,480 --> 09:11:58,398 the 30-year mortgage, and he saw a math 11262 09:11:55,438 --> 09:12:00,878 problem. He realized that if you took 11263 09:11:58,398 --> 09:12:02,320 thousands of individual home mortgages, 11264 09:12:00,878 --> 09:12:04,718 bundled [music] them together like a 11265 09:12:02,320 --> 09:12:07,360 deck of cards, and sold slices of that 11266 09:12:04,718 --> 09:12:09,200 deck to investors, [music] you created a 11267 09:12:07,360 --> 09:12:12,078 money machine. 11268 09:12:09,200 --> 09:12:13,598 This was the birth of the securitization 11269 09:12:12,078 --> 09:12:16,000 market. 11270 09:12:13,598 --> 09:12:18,640 What Larry Frink helped create was more 11271 09:12:16,000 --> 09:12:22,200 than a financial product. It was a 11272 09:12:18,640 --> 09:12:22,200 structural shift. 11273 09:12:22,558 --> 09:12:27,520 Securitization didn't just bundle 11274 09:12:24,718 --> 09:12:29,040 mortgages. It separated risk from 11275 09:12:27,520 --> 09:12:31,278 reality. 11276 09:12:29,040 --> 09:12:32,718 For the first time, financial value 11277 09:12:31,278 --> 09:12:35,758 could travel [music] faster than the 11278 09:12:32,718 --> 09:12:37,598 underlying economy that supported it. A 11279 09:12:35,758 --> 09:12:39,840 house in California became [music] a 11280 09:12:37,598 --> 09:12:42,238 line in a spreadsheet in New York, which 11281 09:12:39,840 --> 09:12:45,200 became a yield sold to an investor in 11282 09:12:42,238 --> 09:12:48,320 Tokyo. Risk no longer lived where 11283 09:12:45,200 --> 09:12:50,718 decisions were made. It was abstracted, 11284 09:12:48,320 --> 09:12:53,438 sliced, repackaged, and distributed 11285 09:12:50,718 --> 09:12:55,598 across the system. This was the moment 11286 09:12:53,438 --> 09:12:58,238 when finance stopped reflecting the real 11287 09:12:55,598 --> 09:13:01,040 economy and began building a parallel 11288 09:12:58,238 --> 09:13:03,360 one. A system that could grow without 11289 09:13:01,040 --> 09:13:05,438 limits as long as everyone believed the 11290 09:13:03,360 --> 09:13:08,238 models were [music] right. And for a 11291 09:13:05,438 --> 09:13:10,398 while, they were. 11292 09:13:08,238 --> 09:13:12,480 By the early 80s, [music] Larry was the 11293 09:13:10,398 --> 09:13:15,278 golden boy. He wasn't just hitting 11294 09:13:12,480 --> 09:13:17,520 targets, he was shattering them. In one 11295 09:13:15,278 --> 09:13:20,078 year, his department was responsible for 11296 09:13:17,520 --> 09:13:23,200 nearly onethird of First Boston's total 11297 09:13:20,078 --> 09:13:25,360 profits. At age 31, he became the 11298 09:13:23,200 --> 09:13:28,398 youngest managing director the firm had 11299 09:13:25,360 --> 09:13:30,878 ever seen. He was earning millions. He 11300 09:13:28,398 --> 09:13:33,680 was the successor, the Prodigy, the man 11301 09:13:30,878 --> 09:13:36,086 who could do no wrong. He had moved to 11302 09:13:33,680 --> 09:13:38,238 his family to a sprawling estate. He 11303 09:13:36,086 --> 09:13:40,398 [music] was flying private. He had 11304 09:13:38,238 --> 09:13:43,398 conquered the grit cover battlefield of 11305 09:13:40,398 --> 09:13:43,398 Manhattan. 11306 09:13:43,918 --> 09:13:48,320 But in the world of high finance, the 11307 09:13:46,078 --> 09:13:51,320 higher you fly, the thinner the air 11308 09:13:48,320 --> 09:13:51,320 becomes. 11309 09:13:52,878 --> 09:13:57,122 Larry was making hundreds of millions 11310 09:13:54,800 --> 09:14:00,000 for the bank. But there was a ghost in 11311 09:13:57,122 --> 09:14:03,918 the machine, a variable he hadn't 11312 09:14:00,000 --> 09:14:06,238 accounted for. The year was 1986. 11313 09:14:03,918 --> 09:14:08,960 Larry had made a massive bet on interest 11314 09:14:06,238 --> 09:14:12,558 rates. He believed they would stay 11315 09:14:08,960 --> 09:14:14,558 stable. He was so sure of his math, so 11316 09:14:12,558 --> 09:14:16,558 confident in his track record that he 11317 09:14:14,558 --> 09:14:18,800 didn't realize the ground was shifting 11318 09:14:16,558 --> 09:14:20,800 beneath his feet. 11319 09:14:18,800 --> 09:14:23,040 In just 3 months, the Golden Boy 11320 09:14:20,800 --> 09:14:24,000 department went from profit to a 11321 09:14:23,040 --> 09:14:28,000 catastrophic [music] 11322 09:14:24,000 --> 09:14:30,320 $100 million loss. In the 80s, 100 11323 09:14:28,000 --> 09:14:32,878 million wasn't just a loss, it was a 11324 09:14:30,320 --> 09:14:34,960 national [music] scandal. Overnight, the 11325 09:14:32,878 --> 09:14:37,918 man who was supposed to run the bank was 11326 09:14:34,960 --> 09:14:39,840 a pariah. The phones stopped ringing. 11327 09:14:37,918 --> 09:14:42,480 The friends on the trading floor looked 11328 09:14:39,840 --> 09:14:44,640 away when he walked by. He had been the 11329 09:14:42,480 --> 09:14:47,438 smartest man in the room until he 11330 09:14:44,640 --> 09:14:49,680 wasn't. He would later describe this 11331 09:14:47,438 --> 09:14:52,878 moment as the most painful experience of 11332 09:14:49,680 --> 09:14:55,520 my life. But as he sat in the ruins of 11333 09:14:52,878 --> 09:14:57,918 his reputation, Larry Frink wasn't just 11334 09:14:55,520 --> 09:15:00,960 mourning his career. He was obsessed 11335 09:14:57,918 --> 09:15:03,040 with [music] one question. How did I not 11336 09:15:00,960 --> 09:15:05,520 see the risk? 11337 09:15:03,040 --> 09:15:08,238 That obsession, the fear of the unknown 11338 09:15:05,520 --> 09:15:11,558 variable would become the cornerstone of 11339 09:15:08,238 --> 09:15:11,558 Black Rockck. 11340 09:15:14,640 --> 09:15:20,878 By 1983, Larry wasn't just selling 11341 09:15:17,438 --> 09:15:22,320 bonds, he was a pioneer of the CMO, 11342 09:15:20,878 --> 09:15:25,320 collateralized [music] mortgage 11343 09:15:22,320 --> 09:15:25,320 obligation. 11344 09:15:25,520 --> 09:15:30,480 Think of it like a waterfall. Larry took 11345 09:15:28,320 --> 09:15:33,438 thousands of mortgages and sliced them 11346 09:15:30,480 --> 09:15:36,160 into tranches. Some investors took the 11347 09:15:33,438 --> 09:15:38,718 top slice, [music] low risk, low reward. 11348 09:15:36,160 --> 09:15:41,520 Others took the bottom, high risk, high 11349 09:15:38,718 --> 09:15:45,360 yield. It was a masterpiece of financial 11350 09:15:41,520 --> 09:15:48,078 engineering. It made the illquid liquid. 11351 09:15:45,360 --> 09:15:50,398 It made First Boston the center of the 11352 09:15:48,078 --> 09:15:52,558 universe. 11353 09:15:50,398 --> 09:15:55,520 But there was a flaw, a tiny 11354 09:15:52,558 --> 09:15:57,520 mathematical ghost in his models. 11355 09:15:55,520 --> 09:15:59,840 Larry's team had predicted that interest 11356 09:15:57,520 --> 09:16:02,320 rates would rise and they hedged their 11357 09:15:59,840 --> 09:16:05,360 bets accordingly. But in the second 11358 09:16:02,320 --> 09:16:07,680 quarter of 1986, rates did something the 11359 09:16:05,360 --> 09:16:09,278 models said was impossible. They 11360 09:16:07,680 --> 09:16:11,040 plummeted 11361 09:16:09,278 --> 09:16:13,598 because they didn't have a system to 11362 09:16:11,040 --> 09:16:16,160 track their realtime exposure. Larry was 11363 09:16:13,598 --> 09:16:19,200 flying blind. He was the pilot of a 11364 09:16:16,160 --> 09:16:21,360 Boeing 747 trying to land in a storm 11365 09:16:19,200 --> 09:16:23,840 using nothing but a compass and a 11366 09:16:21,360 --> 09:16:25,734 prayer. By the time he realized the 11367 09:16:23,840 --> 09:16:28,480 engines were on fire, the plane had 11368 09:16:25,734 --> 09:16:30,000 [music] already hit the mountain. $100 11369 09:16:28,480 --> 09:16:33,320 million. 11370 09:16:30,000 --> 09:16:33,320 all gone. 11371 09:16:35,520 --> 09:16:40,800 He wasn't just fired, he was erased. 11372 09:16:38,718 --> 09:16:43,840 After the dust settled, Larry found 11373 09:16:40,800 --> 09:16:45,360 himself in a peculiar kind of exile. He 11374 09:16:43,840 --> 09:16:48,000 wasn't just unemployed, [music] 11375 09:16:45,360 --> 09:16:50,640 he was haunted. He realized that the 11376 09:16:48,000 --> 09:16:54,000 $100 million loss wasn't a failure of 11377 09:16:50,640 --> 09:16:56,160 talent, it was a failure of vision. What 11378 09:16:54,000 --> 09:16:58,160 happened in [music] 1986 wasn't a 11379 09:16:56,160 --> 09:17:01,200 personal miscalculation. 11380 09:16:58,160 --> 09:17:03,598 It was a systemic blindness. 11381 09:17:01,200 --> 09:17:04,640 At the time, every major financial 11382 09:17:03,598 --> 09:17:07,278 institution [music] 11383 09:17:04,640 --> 09:17:10,558 operated the same way. Positions were 11384 09:17:07,278 --> 09:17:13,438 fragmented. Exposure was estimated, not 11385 09:17:10,558 --> 09:17:15,758 measured. Risk was inferred after the 11386 09:17:13,438 --> 09:17:18,078 fact. Banks knew what they bought 11387 09:17:15,758 --> 09:17:21,200 yesterday, but not what it was worth 11388 09:17:18,078 --> 09:17:23,278 right now. The system rewarded speed, 11389 09:17:21,200 --> 09:17:25,360 volume, and confidence, not 11390 09:17:23,278 --> 09:17:28,320 understanding. And as long as [music] 11391 09:17:25,360 --> 09:17:30,640 markets moved slowly, the illusion held. 11392 09:17:28,320 --> 09:17:32,160 But once volatility entered the market, 11393 09:17:30,640 --> 09:17:36,160 no one truly knew where [music] the 11394 09:17:32,160 --> 09:17:38,160 danger was or how large it had become. 11395 09:17:36,160 --> 09:17:40,718 Larry didn't just lose money. [music] He 11396 09:17:38,160 --> 09:17:43,520 realized the entire financial system was 11397 09:17:40,718 --> 09:17:45,840 flying without instruments. Wall Street 11398 09:17:43,520 --> 09:17:47,122 was essentially a collection of blind 11399 09:17:45,840 --> 09:17:50,480 giants. [music] 11400 09:17:47,122 --> 09:17:53,040 Every major firm, Goldman, Layman, 11401 09:17:50,480 --> 09:17:55,680 Merrill Lynch, was standing just 1 in 11402 09:17:53,040 --> 09:17:58,878 away from total collapse at any given 11403 09:17:55,680 --> 09:18:02,160 second. Why? Because they didn't 11404 09:17:58,878 --> 09:18:05,680 actually know what they owned. This was 11405 09:18:02,160 --> 09:18:08,078 information blindness. 11406 09:18:05,680 --> 09:18:10,398 In the 1980s, you knew what you bought 11407 09:18:08,078 --> 09:18:13,598 yesterday, but you had no idea what it 11408 09:18:10,398 --> 09:18:15,840 was worth right now. A sudden shift in 11409 09:18:13,598 --> 09:18:18,558 interest rates or a political [music] 11410 09:18:15,840 --> 09:18:20,320 coup across the ocean could vaporize a 11411 09:18:18,558 --> 09:18:23,036 billion dollars before the morning 11412 09:18:20,320 --> 09:18:23,036 coffee was poured. [music] 11413 09:18:23,278 --> 09:18:29,200 Larry understood a terrifying truth. The 11414 09:18:26,558 --> 09:18:32,480 entire global financial system was built 11415 09:18:29,200 --> 09:18:34,398 on a foundation of guesswork. 11416 09:18:32,480 --> 09:18:37,840 It hit him with the force of an 11417 09:18:34,398 --> 09:18:39,680 epiphany. If he could build a brain, a 11418 09:18:37,840 --> 09:18:42,078 machine that could see the risk that 11419 09:18:39,680 --> 09:18:44,878 humans were too slow to calculate, he 11420 09:18:42,078 --> 09:18:46,640 wouldn't just be a banker. He would be 11421 09:18:44,878 --> 09:18:49,598 the only man in the world with a 11422 09:18:46,640 --> 09:18:51,680 flashlight in a dark room. This 11423 09:18:49,598 --> 09:18:54,398 realization changed his entire 11424 09:18:51,680 --> 09:18:56,000 philosophy of investing. He stopped 11425 09:18:54,398 --> 09:18:58,800 looking for the big score and [music] 11426 09:18:56,000 --> 09:19:01,122 started looking for the safe passage. He 11427 09:18:58,800 --> 09:19:05,040 didn't want to beat the market anymore. 11428 09:19:01,122 --> 09:19:07,438 He wanted to measure [music] it. 11429 09:19:05,040 --> 09:19:10,718 He would later tell his partners, "We 11430 09:19:07,438 --> 09:19:14,320 are never going to be blind again." That 11431 09:19:10,718 --> 09:19:16,080 vow, born from the humiliation of 1986, 11432 09:19:14,320 --> 09:19:19,200 became the blueprint for [music] a new 11433 09:19:16,080 --> 09:19:21,840 kind of firm. A firm that didn't rely on 11434 09:19:19,200 --> 09:19:26,520 the ego of a star trader, but on the 11435 09:19:21,840 --> 09:19:26,520 cold, unblinking eye of technology. 11436 09:19:31,276 --> 09:19:37,276 Larry Frink was a man with a vision, but 11437 09:19:34,080 --> 09:19:39,200 he was also a man with a tainted resume. 11438 09:19:37,276 --> 09:19:41,916 To the rest of Wall Street, he was the 11439 09:19:39,200 --> 09:19:44,000 guy who lost a h 100red million. But to 11440 09:19:41,916 --> 09:19:46,640 a small circle of insiders at First 11441 09:19:44,000 --> 09:19:50,000 Boston, he was the only one who truly 11442 09:19:46,640 --> 09:19:52,800 understood why it happened. He began 11443 09:19:50,000 --> 09:19:55,436 making calls. He wasn't offering high 11444 09:19:52,800 --> 09:19:58,240 salaries or flashy offices. He was 11445 09:19:55,436 --> 09:20:00,400 offering a chance to build a holy grail, 11446 09:19:58,240 --> 09:20:02,640 a financial firm where technology 11447 09:20:00,400 --> 09:20:05,680 governed the ego, not the other way 11448 09:20:02,640 --> 09:20:07,916 round. And he eventually found the right 11449 09:20:05,680 --> 09:20:10,916 people to help him build that holy 11450 09:20:07,916 --> 09:20:10,916 grail. 11451 09:20:11,520 --> 09:20:17,756 Rob Capito, the enforcer, a powerhouse 11452 09:20:15,596 --> 09:20:20,320 trader who knew the plumbing of the bomb 11453 09:20:17,756 --> 09:20:22,400 market better than anyone else. He 11454 09:20:20,320 --> 09:20:26,000 provided the muscle Larry needed to 11455 09:20:22,400 --> 09:20:29,120 execute the vision. Ben Golib, the 11456 09:20:26,000 --> 09:20:31,756 Oracle, a PhD with a mind like a 11457 09:20:29,120 --> 09:20:34,560 supercomput. While other bankers were 11458 09:20:31,756 --> 09:20:37,040 focused on lunch reservations, Golib was 11459 09:20:34,560 --> 09:20:39,756 thinking about value at risk and Monte 11460 09:20:37,040 --> 09:20:43,276 Carlo simulations. 11461 09:20:39,756 --> 09:20:45,680 Susan Wagner, the mastermind, 11462 09:20:43,276 --> 09:20:47,276 brilliant, calculating, and capable of 11463 09:20:45,680 --> 09:20:49,520 seeing structural flaws in a 11464 09:20:47,276 --> 09:20:51,840 multi-billion dollar merger before a 11465 09:20:49,520 --> 09:20:54,480 single paper was signed. Along with 11466 09:20:51,840 --> 09:20:56,720 Barbara Novik, Ralph Schlstein, Q 11467 09:20:54,480 --> 09:20:59,916 Freighter, and Keith Anderson, they 11468 09:20:56,720 --> 09:21:01,680 became the original eight. Frink wasn't 11469 09:20:59,916 --> 09:21:05,040 looking for bankers who would run after 11470 09:21:01,680 --> 09:21:08,080 the money. He wanted architects, people 11471 09:21:05,040 --> 09:21:10,080 who were tired of being blind. 11472 09:21:08,080 --> 09:21:12,720 When he found them, they met in living 11473 09:21:10,080 --> 09:21:14,560 rooms and coffee shops. They had the 11474 09:21:12,720 --> 09:21:17,596 blueprints for a system they called 11475 09:21:14,560 --> 09:21:20,320 Aladdin, an acronym for asset, 11476 09:21:17,596 --> 09:21:23,360 liability, debt, and derivative [music] 11477 09:21:20,320 --> 09:21:25,840 investment network. It was designed to 11478 09:21:23,360 --> 09:21:28,000 be the unblinking eye Larry had dreamed 11479 09:21:25,840 --> 09:21:30,080 of in his exile. 11480 09:21:28,000 --> 09:21:33,040 But a brain without a body is just a 11481 09:21:30,080 --> 09:21:36,400 dream. To build Aladdin, they needed 11482 09:21:33,040 --> 09:21:38,160 hardware. They needed offices. And most 11483 09:21:36,400 --> 09:21:40,720 importantly, they needed the one thing 11484 09:21:38,160 --> 09:21:43,276 Larry's reputation had cost him. 11485 09:21:40,720 --> 09:21:45,520 Capital. Aladdin was not designed to 11486 09:21:43,276 --> 09:21:47,916 beat the market. It was designed to 11487 09:21:45,520 --> 09:21:50,800 understand it. But its real power 11488 09:21:47,916 --> 09:21:54,080 emerged when others started using it. 11489 09:21:50,800 --> 09:21:57,200 Banks, insurance companies, pension 11490 09:21:54,080 --> 09:21:59,360 funds, sovereign institutions. As 11491 09:21:57,200 --> 09:22:01,680 Aladdin spread, something subtle 11492 09:21:59,360 --> 09:22:05,276 happened. Risk stopped [music] being 11493 09:22:01,680 --> 09:22:08,000 subjective. It became standardized. When 11494 09:22:05,276 --> 09:22:11,580 Aladdin flagged an asset as dangerous, 11495 09:22:08,000 --> 09:22:12,640 entire markets adjusted accordingly. 11496 09:22:11,580 --> 09:22:15,040 [music] 11497 09:22:12,640 --> 09:22:17,916 Not because Larry Frink said so, but 11498 09:22:15,040 --> 09:22:19,840 because the system trusted the model. At 11499 09:22:17,916 --> 09:22:22,320 that point, Black Rockck was no longer 11500 09:22:19,840 --> 09:22:24,080 just managing money. It was helping 11501 09:22:22,320 --> 09:22:27,120 define how risk itself was [music] 11502 09:22:24,080 --> 09:22:28,480 understood. And whoever defines risk 11503 09:22:27,120 --> 09:22:31,480 defines the boundaries of 11504 09:22:28,480 --> 09:22:31,480 decisionmaking. 11505 09:22:40,000 --> 09:22:45,360 Enter Steven Schwartzman. In 1988, 11506 09:22:43,276 --> 09:22:48,560 Schwartzman was the rising king of 11507 09:22:45,360 --> 09:22:52,240 private equity. His firm Blackstone was 11508 09:22:48,560 --> 09:22:54,880 aggressive, wealthy, and hungry. 11509 09:22:52,240 --> 09:22:57,428 The meeting was tense. Schwartzman knew 11510 09:22:54,880 --> 09:22:58,000 Larry's history. He knew about the 1986 11511 09:22:57,428 --> 09:23:01,436 [music] 11512 09:22:58,000 --> 09:23:05,120 disaster. But Larry didn't hide from it. 11513 09:23:01,436 --> 09:23:07,120 He used it as his primary selling point. 11514 09:23:05,120 --> 09:23:09,520 Because Larry had seen the end of the 11515 09:23:07,120 --> 09:23:12,080 world already, he knew exactly how the 11516 09:23:09,520 --> 09:23:13,840 lights went out. And because of that, he 11517 09:23:12,080 --> 09:23:16,000 was the only one who knew how to keep 11518 09:23:13,840 --> 09:23:18,720 them on. 11519 09:23:16,000 --> 09:23:20,720 Larry's pitch was revolutionary. He 11520 09:23:18,720 --> 09:23:23,916 didn't want to start a hedge fund. He 11521 09:23:20,720 --> 09:23:25,680 wanted to create a fiduciary company, a 11522 09:23:23,916 --> 09:23:27,916 firm that managed other people's money 11523 09:23:25,680 --> 09:23:31,200 with the same technological rigor 11524 09:23:27,916 --> 09:23:33,596 usually reserved for NASA. He asked for 11525 09:23:31,200 --> 09:23:36,320 a $5 million credit line and a 11526 09:23:33,596 --> 09:23:39,360 partnership. In exchange, Schwartzman 11527 09:23:36,320 --> 09:23:41,520 would own 50% of the new venture. He 11528 09:23:39,360 --> 09:23:44,000 knew he was buying cheap because he was 11529 09:23:41,520 --> 09:23:46,400 buying on a distressed asset, Frink's 11530 09:23:44,000 --> 09:23:48,320 damaged reputation. 11531 09:23:46,400 --> 09:23:50,000 But he did so betting on the idea that 11532 09:23:48,320 --> 09:23:52,080 the experience had [music] turned Larry 11533 09:23:50,000 --> 09:23:55,040 Frink into some sort of financial 11534 09:23:52,080 --> 09:23:58,320 genius. 11535 09:23:55,040 --> 09:24:00,640 The deal was done. On a Friday in March 11536 09:23:58,320 --> 09:24:02,800 1988, the team moved into [music] a 11537 09:24:00,640 --> 09:24:04,400 single cramped room within Blackstone's 11538 09:24:02,800 --> 09:24:07,040 offices. 11539 09:24:04,400 --> 09:24:09,120 They were five computers, a few folding 11540 09:24:07,040 --> 09:24:11,756 chairs, and a mountain of cables on the 11541 09:24:09,120 --> 09:24:14,080 floor. They were under the Blackstone 11542 09:24:11,756 --> 09:24:16,640 umbrella, but Larry knew that this was 11543 09:24:14,080 --> 09:24:18,960 just a temporary shelter. He didn't just 11544 09:24:16,640 --> 09:24:21,840 want [music] a department, he wanted an 11545 09:24:18,960 --> 09:24:22,560 empire. He had the money. He had the 11546 09:24:21,840 --> 09:24:24,640 team. [music] 11547 09:24:22,560 --> 09:24:26,960 And in the corner of that small room, 11548 09:24:24,640 --> 09:24:29,756 the first lines of code for Aladdin were 11549 09:24:26,960 --> 09:24:32,720 being written. 11550 09:24:29,756 --> 09:24:34,720 The information blindness was over. The 11551 09:24:32,720 --> 09:24:39,160 era of Black Rock, though it didn't have 11552 09:24:34,720 --> 09:24:39,160 that name yet, had begun. 11553 09:24:41,576 --> 09:24:45,596 [music] 11554 09:24:43,276 --> 09:24:48,160 The first office of Blackstone Financial 11555 09:24:45,596 --> 09:24:50,960 Management wasn't a glass tower. [music] 11556 09:24:48,160 --> 09:24:53,276 It was a glorified closet. Because of 11557 09:24:50,960 --> 09:24:55,200 the heat generated by the early Sun 11558 09:24:53,276 --> 09:24:56,880 Micro Systemystems workstations, [music] 11559 09:24:55,200 --> 09:25:01,680 the temperature in the room rarely 11560 09:24:56,880 --> 09:25:03,520 dropped below 80° 27° [music] C. 11561 09:25:01,680 --> 09:25:05,520 While the rest of the Blackstone group 11562 09:25:03,520 --> 09:25:07,916 was out at expensive lunches [music] 11563 09:25:05,520 --> 09:25:10,560 closing leveraged buyouts, Larry's 11564 09:25:07,916 --> 09:25:12,800 original eight were building a digital 11565 09:25:10,560 --> 09:25:14,240 fortress. 11566 09:25:12,800 --> 09:25:16,400 They [music] were the weirdos in the 11567 09:25:14,240 --> 09:25:19,520 basement. It was here that the name 11568 09:25:16,400 --> 09:25:21,840 Aladdin became a living thing. Every 11569 09:25:19,520 --> 09:25:25,040 day, Ben Golab and [music] his team fed 11570 09:25:21,840 --> 09:25:27,040 it data. Interest rates, housing prices, 11571 09:25:25,040 --> 09:25:28,880 historical crashes. They [music] were 11572 09:25:27,040 --> 09:25:34,040 teaching the machine to be afraid of 11573 09:25:28,880 --> 09:25:34,040 everything Larry hadn't seen in 1986. 11574 09:25:35,940 --> 09:25:40,400 [music] 11575 09:25:37,680 --> 09:25:42,880 By 1992, the department inside 11576 09:25:40,400 --> 09:25:44,456 Blackstone was no longer a startup. It 11577 09:25:42,880 --> 09:25:44,640 was a powerhouse. 11578 09:25:44,456 --> 09:25:48,960 >> [music] 11579 09:25:44,640 --> 09:25:50,560 >> Larry's team was managing $17 billion. 11580 09:25:48,960 --> 09:25:52,960 They weren't just a side project 11581 09:25:50,560 --> 09:25:55,588 anymore. They were a significant engine 11582 09:25:52,960 --> 09:25:58,320 of Blackstone's growth. But with success 11583 09:25:55,588 --> 09:26:00,560 [music] came a toxic byproduct, 11584 09:25:58,320 --> 09:26:03,120 identity confusion. 11585 09:26:00,560 --> 09:26:04,800 Clients were getting confused. They 11586 09:26:03,120 --> 09:26:07,276 would call Blackstone looking for 11587 09:26:04,800 --> 09:26:08,480 Larry's bond expertise or called Larry 11588 09:26:07,276 --> 09:26:10,880 looking for Schwarzman's [music] 11589 09:26:08,480 --> 09:26:13,040 buyouts. But the friction went deeper 11590 09:26:10,880 --> 09:26:15,200 than a name. It was a war of 11591 09:26:13,040 --> 09:26:18,640 philosophies. Schwartzman [music] was a 11592 09:26:15,200 --> 09:26:21,276 dealmaker. He wanted to own companies. 11593 09:26:18,640 --> 09:26:24,240 Think was a fiduciary. He wanted to 11594 09:26:21,276 --> 09:26:26,320 manage risk for others. [music] 11595 09:26:24,240 --> 09:26:28,720 The tension was similar to having two 11596 09:26:26,320 --> 09:26:30,720 predators in a cage too small to fit 11597 09:26:28,720 --> 09:26:33,916 both. The breaking point [music] came 11598 09:26:30,720 --> 09:26:36,200 over equity. Larry wanted to use stock 11599 09:26:33,916 --> 09:26:38,400 to attract and keep the original eight 11600 09:26:36,200 --> 09:26:41,040 [music] and new talent. Schwarzman, 11601 09:26:38,400 --> 09:26:43,276 holding 50% of the firm, didn't want to 11602 09:26:41,040 --> 09:26:45,040 dilute his [music] state. The 11603 09:26:43,276 --> 09:26:47,992 partnership that saved Larry's career 11604 09:26:45,040 --> 09:26:48,800 was now suffocating his vision. In 1994, 11605 09:26:47,992 --> 09:26:52,400 [music] 11606 09:26:48,800 --> 09:26:55,040 they reached the deal. 11607 09:26:52,400 --> 09:26:58,640 Schwarzman agreed to sell Blackstone for 11608 09:26:55,040 --> 09:27:00,480 $240 million. At the time, it seemed 11609 09:26:58,640 --> 09:27:02,720 like a win [music] for Schwarzman, a 11610 09:27:00,480 --> 09:27:05,020 massive return on his $5 million 11611 09:27:02,720 --> 09:27:07,276 investment. It wasn't just about money. 11612 09:27:05,020 --> 09:27:09,756 [music] It was about the spotlight. 11613 09:27:07,276 --> 09:27:12,240 Schwarzman was the king of Wall Street, 11614 09:27:09,756 --> 09:27:14,000 but his subtenant, Larry Frink, was the 11615 09:27:12,240 --> 09:27:16,720 one the New York [music] Times wanted to 11616 09:27:14,000 --> 09:27:20,080 interview. But for Larry, it was the 11617 09:27:16,720 --> 09:27:21,916 price of freedom. Schwarzman would later 11618 09:27:20,080 --> 09:27:24,800 call selling [music] Black Rock the 11619 09:27:21,916 --> 09:27:26,720 worst mistake of my career. For Larry, 11620 09:27:24,800 --> 09:27:29,436 the divorce was the moment the training 11621 09:27:26,720 --> 09:27:32,320 wheels came off. He was no longer under 11622 09:27:29,436 --> 09:27:34,000 anyone's umbrella. He was the CEO of an 11623 09:27:32,320 --> 09:27:35,596 independent firm. [music] 11624 09:27:34,000 --> 09:27:37,520 Now he just had to prove he could 11625 09:27:35,596 --> 09:27:40,520 survive the coming storm of the late 11626 09:27:37,520 --> 09:27:40,520 '9s. 11627 09:27:48,240 --> 09:27:54,080 It is 2008. The financial world was 11628 09:27:51,520 --> 09:27:56,320 experiencing a heart attack. The 11629 09:27:54,080 --> 09:27:58,640 financial smoothies that mortgage back 11630 09:27:56,320 --> 09:28:00,960 securities Larry had helped create 30 11631 09:27:58,640 --> 09:28:02,320 years earlier had turned into a global 11632 09:28:00,960 --> 09:28:04,560 poison. 11633 09:28:02,320 --> 09:28:06,560 Banks didn't know what they owned, and 11634 09:28:04,560 --> 09:28:08,880 more importantly, they didn't know what 11635 09:28:06,560 --> 09:28:10,720 their neighbors owned. Trust had 11636 09:28:08,880 --> 09:28:12,720 evaporated. [music] 11637 09:28:10,720 --> 09:28:14,480 When the US government realized the 11638 09:28:12,720 --> 09:28:16,560 economy was on the brink of a total 11639 09:28:14,480 --> 09:28:20,480 blackout, they didn't call Goldman 11640 09:28:16,560 --> 09:28:22,880 Sachs. They didn't call JP Morgan. While 11641 09:28:20,480 --> 09:28:24,800 the CEOs of Layman and Merrill were 11642 09:28:22,880 --> 09:28:26,640 begging for government checks, Larry 11643 09:28:24,800 --> 09:28:29,200 Frink [music] was the one the government 11644 09:28:26,640 --> 09:28:31,436 called to write the checks. 11645 09:28:29,200 --> 09:28:33,916 He was the only titan left standing with 11646 09:28:31,436 --> 09:28:36,000 a clean balance sheet. 11647 09:28:33,916 --> 09:28:38,080 The United States government didn't just 11648 09:28:36,000 --> 09:28:40,000 seek advice. It delegated 11649 09:28:38,080 --> 09:28:41,916 responsibility. 11650 09:28:40,000 --> 09:28:43,840 Black Rockck was tasked with valuing 11651 09:28:41,916 --> 09:28:46,240 assets [music] no one understood, 11652 09:28:43,840 --> 09:28:48,480 managing risks no one could measure, and 11653 09:28:46,240 --> 09:28:51,520 stabilizing markets that were collapsing 11654 09:28:48,480 --> 09:28:53,840 in real time. 11655 09:28:51,520 --> 09:28:57,040 This wasn't a bailout. It was an 11656 09:28:53,840 --> 09:28:58,400 outsourcing of core sovereign functions. 11657 09:28:57,040 --> 09:29:00,160 For the first time, [music] a private 11658 09:28:58,400 --> 09:29:03,200 firm played a central role in 11659 09:29:00,160 --> 09:29:05,360 maintaining global financial stability. 11660 09:29:03,200 --> 09:29:08,080 Not through political authority, but 11661 09:29:05,360 --> 09:29:10,720 through technical capability. 11662 09:29:08,080 --> 09:29:13,596 From that moment on, power was no longer 11663 09:29:10,720 --> 09:29:15,596 just about laws and institutions. It was 11664 09:29:13,596 --> 09:29:17,840 about who had the tools to see the 11665 09:29:15,596 --> 09:29:19,680 system clearly. 11666 09:29:17,840 --> 09:29:22,800 Black Rockck was hired to manage the 11667 09:29:19,680 --> 09:29:24,480 toxic waste of the crisis. They became 11668 09:29:22,800 --> 09:29:27,840 the official cleaner for the US 11669 09:29:24,480 --> 09:29:31,320 government, managing $130 billion of 11670 09:29:27,840 --> 09:29:31,320 troubled assets. 11671 09:29:31,436 --> 09:29:36,160 Suddenly, Larry Frink was the most 11672 09:29:33,840 --> 09:29:37,840 powerful man in the room, acting as an 11673 09:29:36,160 --> 09:29:39,360 adviser to the president and the 11674 09:29:37,840 --> 09:29:41,756 Treasury. 11675 09:29:39,360 --> 09:29:44,560 But while he was saving the system, he 11676 09:29:41,756 --> 09:29:46,800 saw a once-ina-lifetime opportunity to 11677 09:29:44,560 --> 09:29:49,276 dominate it. In the middle of the 11678 09:29:46,800 --> 09:29:52,080 carnage, Barclay's bank in the UK was 11679 09:29:49,276 --> 09:29:54,400 desperate for cash. They needed to sell 11680 09:29:52,080 --> 09:29:56,400 their crown jewel, a division called 11681 09:29:54,400 --> 09:29:58,880 Barclay's Global Investors, which 11682 09:29:56,400 --> 09:30:00,560 included a revolutionary product called 11683 09:29:58,880 --> 09:30:02,480 Eyesshares. 11684 09:30:00,560 --> 09:30:05,276 Eyessshares represented passive 11685 09:30:02,480 --> 09:30:08,320 investing, ETFs that track the whole 11686 09:30:05,276 --> 09:30:10,240 market rather than trying to beat it. It 11687 09:30:08,320 --> 09:30:12,960 was the ultimate expression of Larry's 11688 09:30:10,240 --> 09:30:15,596 philosophy. Stop betting on stars and 11689 09:30:12,960 --> 09:30:19,916 start owning the system. It was a 11690 09:30:15,596 --> 09:30:21,916 massive $13.5 billion gamble. 11691 09:30:19,916 --> 09:30:24,720 If the markets continue to fall, the 11692 09:30:21,916 --> 09:30:27,276 deal could sink Black Rockck. But Larry 11693 09:30:24,720 --> 09:30:29,276 knew something the others didn't. He had 11694 09:30:27,276 --> 09:30:31,520 looked into the eye of Aladdin, and 11695 09:30:29,276 --> 09:30:34,400 Aladdin told him that the bottom was 11696 09:30:31,520 --> 09:30:37,276 near. With the acquisition of Eyesshares 11697 09:30:34,400 --> 09:30:40,000 in 2009, Blackrop doubled its size 11698 09:30:37,276 --> 09:30:42,720 overnight. They weren't just a bond shop 11699 09:30:40,000 --> 09:30:45,680 anymore. They were now the largest money 11700 09:30:42,720 --> 09:30:48,320 manager on the planet. They had gone 11701 09:30:45,680 --> 09:30:50,480 into the crisis as a respected firm. 11702 09:30:48,320 --> 09:30:54,276 They came out of it as the shadow 11703 09:30:50,480 --> 09:30:54,276 government of finance. 11704 09:30:58,960 --> 09:31:04,240 By 2012, Larry Frink had built the 11705 09:31:01,520 --> 09:31:06,720 machine. He had the assets, the data, 11706 09:31:04,240 --> 09:31:08,880 and the influence. But he realized that 11707 09:31:06,720 --> 09:31:11,840 [music] being king of Wall Street wasn't 11708 09:31:08,880 --> 09:31:14,580 enough. He wanted to change the way the 11709 09:31:11,840 --> 09:31:16,320 world did business. Every January, 11710 09:31:14,580 --> 09:31:18,560 [music] a ritual began that would send 11711 09:31:16,320 --> 09:31:21,436 tremors through boardrooms from Detroit 11712 09:31:18,560 --> 09:31:23,092 to Frankfurt. Larry started writing 11713 09:31:21,436 --> 09:31:25,596 letters. They weren't just annual 11714 09:31:23,092 --> 09:31:29,000 [music] reports. They were the Black 11715 09:31:25,596 --> 09:31:29,000 Rockck Manifestos. 11716 09:31:29,596 --> 09:31:35,596 In 2018, he dropped a bomb. He told the 11717 09:31:33,360 --> 09:31:37,756 world's CEOs that if they wanted Black 11718 09:31:35,596 --> 09:31:40,800 Rockck's money, they had to prove they 11719 09:31:37,756 --> 09:31:43,596 served a social purpose. He wasn't just 11720 09:31:40,800 --> 09:31:47,596 asking for profits. He was asking for a 11721 09:31:43,596 --> 09:31:50,560 soul. He was mainstreaming ESG, 11722 09:31:47,596 --> 09:31:52,720 environmental, social, and governance. 11723 09:31:50,560 --> 09:31:55,844 And he was doing [music] it with a $10 11724 09:31:52,720 --> 09:31:56,400 trillion hammer. But Larry's new gospel 11725 09:31:55,844 --> 09:32:00,000 [music] 11726 09:31:56,400 --> 09:32:01,740 didn't sit well with everyone. By 2021, 11727 09:32:00,000 --> 09:32:03,360 the Golden Boy was finding himself 11728 09:32:01,740 --> 09:32:05,756 [music] in the middle of a two-front 11729 09:32:03,360 --> 09:32:08,960 war. 11730 09:32:05,756 --> 09:32:12,800 The ESG debate was never cultural. It 11731 09:32:08,960 --> 09:32:14,800 was economic. At its core, ESG was about 11732 09:32:12,800 --> 09:32:17,360 risk management, anticipating [music] 11733 09:32:14,800 --> 09:32:19,596 regulation, climate disruption, and 11734 09:32:17,360 --> 09:32:21,276 social instability. 11735 09:32:19,596 --> 09:32:23,360 For Black Rockck, ignoring [music] those 11736 09:32:21,276 --> 09:32:25,916 factors wasn't neutral. It was 11737 09:32:23,360 --> 09:32:28,240 dangerous. But when capital begins to 11738 09:32:25,916 --> 09:32:31,040 price the future, it also begins to 11739 09:32:28,240 --> 09:32:32,640 shape it. That's why the backlash was so 11740 09:32:31,040 --> 09:32:35,596 intense. 11741 09:32:32,640 --> 09:32:37,436 To the left, Larry was a hypocrite. They 11742 09:32:35,596 --> 09:32:39,200 called him a greenwasher because Black 11743 09:32:37,436 --> 09:32:42,000 Rockck [music] still held billions in 11744 09:32:39,200 --> 09:32:44,320 oil and gas stocks. To the right, he was 11745 09:32:42,000 --> 09:32:46,240 a globalist villain who was using other 11746 09:32:44,320 --> 09:32:49,120 people's money to [music] push a radical 11747 09:32:46,240 --> 09:32:51,120 environmental agenda. The backlash 11748 09:32:49,120 --> 09:32:54,120 turned into a full-scale political 11749 09:32:51,120 --> 09:32:54,120 assault. 11750 09:32:54,240 --> 09:32:58,960 State treasurers in Florida, Texas, and 11751 09:32:56,720 --> 09:33:01,596 Mississippi began pulling billions out 11752 09:32:58,960 --> 09:33:04,320 of Black Rockck. They accused Larry of 11753 09:33:01,596 --> 09:33:06,480 boycotting energy and violating his duty 11754 09:33:04,320 --> 09:33:08,320 to investors. 11755 09:33:06,480 --> 09:33:11,040 For the first time, the man who had 11756 09:33:08,320 --> 09:33:16,360 mastered risk found himself in a risk he 11757 09:33:11,040 --> 09:33:16,360 couldn't calculate, the culture war. 11758 09:33:17,840 --> 09:33:21,652 He told a crowd in Aspen that he was 11759 09:33:20,080 --> 09:33:22,480 ashamed to be a part of the debate. 11760 09:33:21,652 --> 09:33:24,960 [music] 11761 09:33:22,480 --> 09:33:28,000 He even stopped using the term ESG 11762 09:33:24,960 --> 09:33:29,680 altogether, calling it weaponized. He 11763 09:33:28,000 --> 09:33:32,400 had tried to become the conscience of 11764 09:33:29,680 --> 09:33:35,276 capitalism. Instead, it became its most 11765 09:33:32,400 --> 09:33:37,276 controversial target. But even as the 11766 09:33:35,276 --> 09:33:41,300 politicians shouted and the protesters 11767 09:33:37,276 --> 09:33:42,240 marched, the assets kept growing. 11768 09:33:41,300 --> 09:33:44,000 [music] 11769 09:33:42,240 --> 09:33:45,888 Because in the end, whether you loved 11770 09:33:44,000 --> 09:33:50,040 him or hated him, you couldn't escape 11771 09:33:45,888 --> 09:33:50,040 [music] the machine he built. 11772 09:33:58,000 --> 09:34:02,640 January 2026, [music] 11773 09:34:00,320 --> 09:34:04,240 the number flashes on a terminal in 11774 09:34:02,640 --> 09:34:05,756 Black Rockck's Hudson Yards 11775 09:34:04,240 --> 09:34:08,320 headquarters. 11776 09:34:05,756 --> 09:34:11,436 $14 trillion. 11777 09:34:08,320 --> 09:34:13,040 It is a number so vast it defies human 11778 09:34:11,436 --> 09:34:14,800 comprehension. 11779 09:34:13,040 --> 09:34:17,520 If Larry Frink's assets under [music] 11780 09:34:14,800 --> 09:34:19,436 management were a country's GDP, it 11781 09:34:17,520 --> 09:34:21,436 would be the third largest economy on 11782 09:34:19,436 --> 09:34:24,080 Earth, surpassed only by the [music] 11783 09:34:21,436 --> 09:34:26,320 United States and China. 11784 09:34:24,080 --> 09:34:29,200 But as Larry looks out from his office, 11785 09:34:26,320 --> 09:34:31,040 he isn't looking at stock tickers. He is 11786 09:34:29,200 --> 09:34:34,040 looking at the very bones of 11787 09:34:31,040 --> 09:34:34,040 civilization. 11788 09:34:35,596 --> 09:34:42,000 In 2024, Larry made his final most 11789 09:34:39,040 --> 09:34:44,180 aggressive pivot. He realized that the 11790 09:34:42,000 --> 09:34:46,320 next decade won't be one with bits on 11791 09:34:44,180 --> 09:34:49,360 [music] a screen, but with atoms in the 11792 09:34:46,320 --> 09:34:51,680 ground. With the 12.5 billion 11793 09:34:49,360 --> 09:34:54,160 acquisition of global infrastructure 11794 09:34:51,680 --> 09:34:57,360 partners, Larry signaled the end of the 11795 09:34:54,160 --> 09:34:59,756 old Wall Street era. Larry saw the AI 11796 09:34:57,360 --> 09:35:02,400 revolution coming. But he didn't buy the 11797 09:34:59,756 --> 09:35:06,276 chip makers. He bought the power plants 11798 09:35:02,400 --> 09:35:06,276 that feed the chips. 11799 09:35:09,200 --> 09:35:16,200 But every empire faces [music] the same 11800 09:35:11,276 --> 09:35:16,200 inevitable question. Succession. 11801 09:35:17,596 --> 09:35:21,916 For years, Wall Street has whispered 11802 09:35:19,680 --> 09:35:24,800 about who could possibly replace the man 11803 09:35:21,916 --> 09:35:27,520 who is Black [music] Rockck. Names like 11804 09:35:24,800 --> 09:35:29,520 Rob Capito, Mark Webbman, and Jennifer 11805 09:35:27,520 --> 09:35:32,480 Johnson swirl in the press. [music] 11806 09:35:29,520 --> 09:35:34,000 But the truth is more complex. Larry 11807 09:35:32,480 --> 09:35:36,480 hasn't just built a [music] company. 11808 09:35:34,000 --> 09:35:39,200 He's built an organism. A system where 11809 09:35:36,480 --> 09:35:42,000 Aladdin, now a very sophisticated AI 11810 09:35:39,200 --> 09:35:44,320 entity, handles the risk while a legion 11811 09:35:42,000 --> 09:35:47,360 of 20,000 employees, [music] executes 11812 09:35:44,320 --> 09:35:49,840 the vision. Aladdin is no longer just a 11813 09:35:47,360 --> 09:35:51,040 calculator. It is a predictive engine 11814 09:35:49,840 --> 09:35:53,756 that runs millions of [music] 11815 09:35:51,040 --> 09:35:55,596 simulations every second, anticipating 11816 09:35:53,756 --> 09:35:59,436 everything from a war in the Middle East 11817 09:35:55,596 --> 09:36:01,840 to a crop [music] failure in Brazil. 11818 09:35:59,436 --> 09:36:05,120 Some call him the king of the world. 11819 09:36:01,840 --> 09:36:06,960 Others call him the shadow architect. 11820 09:36:05,120 --> 09:36:09,436 But if you ask Larry, he'll [music] tell 11821 09:36:06,960 --> 09:36:11,520 you he's still that kid from the Vanoise 11822 09:36:09,436 --> 09:36:15,800 shoe store, just trying to make [music] 11823 09:36:11,520 --> 09:36:15,800 sure that the maths add up. 11824 09:36:16,080 --> 09:36:20,400 He took the greatest humiliation of his 11825 09:36:18,080 --> 09:36:22,480 life and turned it into a shield for the 11826 09:36:20,400 --> 09:36:24,480 global economy. 11827 09:36:22,480 --> 09:36:27,200 He taught the world that profit without 11828 09:36:24,480 --> 09:36:32,240 a plan is just a gamble and that in the 11829 09:36:27,200 --> 09:36:33,916 dark, the man with a flashlight is king. 11830 09:36:32,240 --> 09:36:36,880 There is one financial [music] question 11831 09:36:33,916 --> 09:36:39,120 the system cannot answer. What happens 11832 09:36:36,880 --> 09:36:41,680 when everyone measures risk the same 11833 09:36:39,120 --> 09:36:43,360 way? When models converge. When 11834 09:36:41,680 --> 09:36:46,400 assumptions [music] align. When 11835 09:36:43,360 --> 09:36:48,480 diversity of judgment disappears. 11836 09:36:46,400 --> 09:36:51,120 A system optimized for stability [music] 11837 09:36:48,480 --> 09:36:53,436 can become fragile. Not because it is 11838 09:36:51,120 --> 09:36:55,200 wrong but because it leaves no room for 11839 09:36:53,436 --> 09:36:57,360 the unexpected. [music] 11840 09:36:55,200 --> 09:36:59,840 When the supervisor becomes invisible 11841 09:36:57,360 --> 09:37:02,960 and the rules are embedded in code, 11842 09:36:59,840 --> 09:37:06,240 accountability becomes harder to locate, 11843 09:37:02,960 --> 09:37:08,160 the system works until it doesn't. And 11844 09:37:06,240 --> 09:37:10,720 that's why Blackprock isn't just a 11845 09:37:08,160 --> 09:37:13,360 shareholder in your company. They are 11846 09:37:10,720 --> 09:37:15,360 the landlord of your power plant, the 11847 09:37:13,360 --> 09:37:18,080 owner of your airport, [music] the 11848 09:37:15,360 --> 09:37:19,680 architect of your retirement. It is a 11849 09:37:18,080 --> 09:37:21,916 level of centralized influence [music] 11850 09:37:19,680 --> 09:37:24,800 the world has never seen in a private 11851 09:37:21,916 --> 09:37:27,276 individual. Lawrence D.Fin [music] 11852 09:37:24,800 --> 09:37:30,320 didn't just build a bank. He built the 11853 09:37:27,276 --> 09:37:32,560 unblinking eye of capitalism. 11854 09:37:30,320 --> 09:37:34,720 And as the world moves into the era of 11855 09:37:32,560 --> 09:37:37,596 AI, climate shift, and global 11856 09:37:34,720 --> 09:37:40,960 restructuring, one thing is certain. 11857 09:37:37,596 --> 09:37:45,560 Black Rockck will be there, watching, 11858 09:37:40,960 --> 09:37:45,560 calculating, and growing. 11859 09:39:05,520 --> 09:39:10,480 It's just a small plastic brick. 11860 09:39:08,960 --> 09:39:15,680 Lightweight, 11861 09:39:10,480 --> 09:39:20,080 simple, unchanged since 1958. [music] 11862 09:39:15,680 --> 09:39:22,080 And yet, it has built entire universes. 11863 09:39:20,080 --> 09:39:24,580 Lego constructions truly take us back to 11864 09:39:22,080 --> 09:39:24,580 childhood. [music] 11865 09:39:24,640 --> 09:39:28,880 But they stay with us throughout our 11866 09:39:26,400 --> 09:39:31,276 entire lives. From bedrooms to 11867 09:39:28,880 --> 09:39:35,520 boardrooms, from playgrounds to 11868 09:39:31,276 --> 09:39:38,000 Hollywood, Lego has shaped generations. 11869 09:39:35,520 --> 09:39:39,840 >> When I design something from scratch, I 11870 09:39:38,000 --> 09:39:42,240 start with an idea that occurs to me at 11871 09:39:39,840 --> 09:39:44,000 any time of day. 11872 09:39:42,240 --> 09:39:47,040 >> I try to build it with Lego and see what 11873 09:39:44,000 --> 09:39:51,120 I come up with. In a global toy market 11874 09:39:47,040 --> 09:39:53,756 worth more than $120 billion, Lego 11875 09:39:51,120 --> 09:39:56,800 stands alone. A single company 11876 09:39:53,756 --> 09:39:59,120 controlling nearly one in every $10 11877 09:39:56,800 --> 09:40:01,360 spent on toys worldwide. 11878 09:39:59,120 --> 09:40:02,960 >> Lego holds a leading position worldwide, 11879 09:40:01,360 --> 09:40:04,560 recognized above all for its 11880 09:40:02,960 --> 09:40:06,720 playability. 11881 09:40:04,560 --> 09:40:10,880 >> What if the most beloved toy in the 11882 09:40:06,720 --> 09:40:13,200 world almost didn't exist? 11883 09:40:10,880 --> 09:40:15,916 Discover the incredible journey of a 11884 09:40:13,200 --> 09:40:17,916 small, struggling carpentry shop. The 11885 09:40:15,916 --> 09:40:19,756 dared to dream bigger than anyone 11886 09:40:17,916 --> 09:40:22,320 thought possible. 11887 09:40:19,756 --> 09:40:25,360 >> This is the untold story of the [music] 11888 09:40:22,320 --> 09:40:28,060 visionary who built Lego. 11889 09:40:25,360 --> 09:40:30,720 Transforming simple wooden bricks into 11890 09:40:28,060 --> 09:40:34,560 [music] a multi-billion dollar empire 11891 09:40:30,720 --> 09:40:36,800 and forever changing how we play. 11892 09:40:34,560 --> 09:40:40,080 But none of this began with billiondoll 11893 09:40:36,800 --> 09:40:43,916 charts or cinematic universes. 11894 09:40:40,080 --> 09:40:47,200 It began with a carpenter with a vision. 11895 09:40:43,916 --> 09:40:49,756 In a tiny Danish village, one man had a 11896 09:40:47,200 --> 09:40:53,400 dream. Building [music] toys out of 11897 09:40:49,756 --> 09:40:53,400 scraps of wood. 11898 09:40:59,596 --> 09:41:06,400 Ole Christensen was born in 1891 [music] 11899 09:41:03,120 --> 09:41:07,436 in western Denmark, a place defined by 11900 09:41:06,400 --> 09:41:10,320 silence, [music] 11901 09:41:07,436 --> 09:41:13,040 soil, and hard work. 11902 09:41:10,320 --> 09:41:15,200 He grew up poor, like most children in 11903 09:41:13,040 --> 09:41:16,560 the Jutland countryside. 11904 09:41:15,200 --> 09:41:19,276 But he learned the value of 11905 09:41:16,560 --> 09:41:22,800 craftsmanship early. When you made 11906 09:41:19,276 --> 09:41:25,520 something, it had to last. 11907 09:41:22,800 --> 09:41:27,756 He apprenticed as a carpenter. It was 11908 09:41:25,520 --> 09:41:31,360 not a really glamorous [music] work, but 11909 09:41:27,756 --> 09:41:34,640 meticulous, honest, a craft that matched 11910 09:41:31,360 --> 09:41:37,040 Ola's character and manners. 11911 09:41:34,640 --> 09:41:40,480 Ola traveled through Denmark, Germany, 11912 09:41:37,040 --> 09:41:44,000 and Norway. Everywhere he went, he left 11913 09:41:40,480 --> 09:41:46,000 a reputation. Precise, patient, 11914 09:41:44,000 --> 09:41:49,596 relentless. 11915 09:41:46,000 --> 09:41:51,680 In 1916, Ole returned home and bought a 11916 09:41:49,596 --> 09:41:56,000 workshop in a place that barely existed 11917 09:41:51,680 --> 09:41:58,480 on the map. Bund. No shops, no train 11918 09:41:56,000 --> 09:42:00,560 station, just a handful of families 11919 09:41:58,480 --> 09:42:02,320 trying to survive the Danish winds. 11920 09:42:00,560 --> 09:42:05,436 >> Don't worry, I'm fine. I'm fine. 11921 09:42:02,320 --> 09:42:07,596 >> But 8 years later, disaster struck. 11922 09:42:05,436 --> 09:42:10,640 >> Oh. Oh. Oh, no. 11923 09:42:07,596 --> 09:42:11,360 >> In 1924, a fire tore through his 11924 09:42:10,640 --> 09:42:14,240 workshop. 11925 09:42:11,360 --> 09:42:15,840 >> Oh god, no. Please, no. Oh my god. 11926 09:42:14,240 --> 09:42:20,080 >> Everything burned. 11927 09:42:15,840 --> 09:42:23,436 tools, wood, orders, and a lifetime of 11928 09:42:20,080 --> 09:42:27,596 savings, all gone. 11929 09:42:23,436 --> 09:42:30,240 But Oair didn't quit. He rebuilt and 11930 09:42:27,596 --> 09:42:32,800 rebuilt bigger than before. Not because 11931 09:42:30,240 --> 09:42:36,720 it was safe, but because he refused to 11932 09:42:32,800 --> 09:42:39,596 let Billand disappear into the wind. 11933 09:42:36,720 --> 09:42:42,160 Then came the Great Depression. Houses 11934 09:42:39,596 --> 09:42:46,000 weren't being built. Doors weren't being 11935 09:42:42,160 --> 09:42:48,720 ordered. bills weren't being paid. 11936 09:42:46,000 --> 09:42:51,756 Olair had workers depending on him, 11937 09:42:48,720 --> 09:42:54,640 families depending on him. So, he did 11938 09:42:51,756 --> 09:42:58,480 something unexpected. He began crafting 11939 09:42:54,640 --> 09:43:02,080 small wooden toys. They were simple, 11940 09:42:58,480 --> 09:43:05,120 durable, and beautiful. 11941 09:43:02,080 --> 09:43:08,880 Locals mocked him. A grown man making 11942 09:43:05,120 --> 09:43:12,160 toys for children. You'll never survive. 11943 09:43:08,880 --> 09:43:14,160 But Ola believed that play and fun was a 11944 09:43:12,160 --> 09:43:17,360 serious business. 11945 09:43:14,160 --> 09:43:20,960 In 1934, he held a contest to name the 11946 09:43:17,360 --> 09:43:22,480 new toy company. He chose a short word, 11947 09:43:20,960 --> 09:43:24,880 Lego. 11948 09:43:22,480 --> 09:43:28,400 It was not only a simple idea, but a 11949 09:43:24,880 --> 09:43:31,120 philosophy and a promise. 11950 09:43:28,400 --> 09:43:33,756 He hung a sign in the workshop. Only the 11951 09:43:31,120 --> 09:43:38,916 best is good enough. It wasn't 11952 09:43:33,756 --> 09:43:38,916 marketing. It was his identity. 11953 09:43:39,324 --> 09:43:42,240 >> [panting] 11954 09:43:40,800 --> 09:43:46,880 >> Oh god, not again. 11955 09:43:42,240 --> 09:43:49,680 >> In 1942, Ola faced another fire. This 11956 09:43:46,880 --> 09:43:52,720 time it was bigger, more devastating. 11957 09:43:49,680 --> 09:43:56,160 Every blueprint, every toy, every dream 11958 09:43:52,720 --> 09:43:59,040 he had turned into smoke. 11959 09:43:56,160 --> 09:44:02,560 But he had built himself the hardship. 11960 09:43:59,040 --> 09:44:05,756 And once more, he rebuilt the factory 11961 09:44:02,560 --> 09:44:09,756 stronger than the two previous ones. 11962 09:44:05,756 --> 09:44:11,756 In 1947, at the worst economic moment, 11963 09:44:09,756 --> 09:44:14,800 Ola made the riskiest choice of his 11964 09:44:11,756 --> 09:44:16,960 life. He spent more than twice the 11965 09:44:14,800 --> 09:44:19,756 company's annual profits on a strange 11966 09:44:16,960 --> 09:44:22,720 new machine, one that worked not with 11967 09:44:19,756 --> 09:44:25,436 wood, but with plastic. 11968 09:44:22,720 --> 09:44:27,840 Retailers hated plastic. Parents 11969 09:44:25,436 --> 09:44:31,596 distrusted it. But Ola saw something 11970 09:44:27,840 --> 09:44:34,080 they didn't. Precision, repeatability, 11971 09:44:31,596 --> 09:44:36,320 and possibilities. Endless 11972 09:44:34,080 --> 09:44:39,596 possibilities. 11973 09:44:36,320 --> 09:44:41,756 Only two years later, in 1949, 11974 09:44:39,596 --> 09:44:45,040 LEGO released the first plastic bricks 11975 09:44:41,756 --> 09:44:47,840 of its history. They didn't click. They 11976 09:44:45,040 --> 09:44:50,840 weren't perfect, but they were the 11977 09:44:47,840 --> 09:44:50,840 beginning. 11978 09:44:55,120 --> 09:44:59,520 >> The idea was good, but O and his team 11979 09:44:57,756 --> 09:45:01,840 faced setbacks while designing the 11980 09:44:59,520 --> 09:45:05,040 bricks that had cemented Lego's identity 11981 09:45:01,840 --> 09:45:08,240 through the years. The plastic bricks 11982 09:45:05,040 --> 09:45:10,240 didn't grip. This was a major problem 11983 09:45:08,240 --> 09:45:13,040 for a building set because buildings 11984 09:45:10,240 --> 09:45:16,400 collapsed. Towers fell in front of their 11985 09:45:13,040 --> 09:45:20,880 eyes. Apparently, Lego wasn't created to 11986 09:45:16,400 --> 09:45:23,120 build. And then in 1958, 11987 09:45:20,880 --> 09:45:25,436 everything changed. 11988 09:45:23,120 --> 09:45:27,436 >> Unlike 20 years ago, LEGO today allows 11989 09:45:25,436 --> 09:45:29,756 us to build many more things because 11990 09:45:27,436 --> 09:45:33,160 they have released more realistic colors 11991 09:45:29,756 --> 09:45:33,160 and shapes. 11992 09:45:33,436 --> 09:45:38,160 In the past, the pieces were mostly 11993 09:45:35,520 --> 09:45:40,240 square. Today, there is a much wider 11994 09:45:38,160 --> 09:45:42,400 variety of shapes, including more 11995 09:45:40,240 --> 09:45:45,200 rounded elements, which allow us to 11996 09:45:42,400 --> 09:45:46,960 create more ergonomic forms, ones that 11997 09:45:45,200 --> 09:45:49,200 more closely resemble the kinds of 11998 09:45:46,960 --> 09:45:51,360 buildings and structures we see in 11999 09:45:49,200 --> 09:45:54,400 everyday life. 12000 09:45:51,360 --> 09:45:57,680 >> Engineers at LEGO perfected a simple but 12001 09:45:54,400 --> 09:45:59,756 ingenious solution. hollow tubes inside 12002 09:45:57,680 --> 09:46:02,000 the brick. 12003 09:45:59,756 --> 09:46:04,560 Paired with the studs on top, the 12004 09:46:02,000 --> 09:46:08,400 geometry created what LEGO calls clutch 12005 09:46:04,560 --> 09:46:10,720 power. Not too tight, not too loose, 12006 09:46:08,400 --> 09:46:12,560 just perfect. 12007 09:46:10,720 --> 09:46:15,200 This was not just an adjustment or 12008 09:46:12,560 --> 09:46:18,400 improvement. It was the birth of what we 12009 09:46:15,200 --> 09:46:20,560 know today as a Lego brick. The brick 12010 09:46:18,400 --> 09:46:22,880 that today [music] can still be used 12011 09:46:20,560 --> 09:46:24,160 with the modern ones. 12012 09:46:22,880 --> 09:46:26,320 the brick that [music] was the 12013 09:46:24,160 --> 09:46:28,480 foundation of a company that still makes 12014 09:46:26,320 --> 09:46:32,000 history today. 12015 09:46:28,480 --> 09:46:33,120 That same year, Lego filed the patent. 12016 09:46:32,000 --> 09:46:35,520 They had something worth [music] 12017 09:46:33,120 --> 09:46:39,436 protecting, and Ole knew that sooner or 12018 09:46:35,520 --> 09:46:42,640 later, it would be replicated. 12019 09:46:39,436 --> 09:46:45,436 It was January the 28th, 1958 [music] 12020 09:46:42,640 --> 09:46:48,620 when the patent was filed. Later that 12021 09:46:45,436 --> 09:46:49,520 year, Ole Christensen passed away. 12022 09:46:48,620 --> 09:46:52,720 [music] 12023 09:46:49,520 --> 09:46:56,520 And sadly, he never lived to see how far 12024 09:46:52,720 --> 09:46:56,520 his brick would travel. 12025 09:47:04,080 --> 09:47:09,596 After his father died, Godfred Kirk 12026 09:47:06,640 --> 09:47:11,840 Christensen stepped in. He wasn't 12027 09:47:09,596 --> 09:47:14,800 inheriting the company. He was 12028 09:47:11,840 --> 09:47:17,040 inheriting a philosophy, one he had been 12029 09:47:14,800 --> 09:47:19,200 raised [music] with. His father wasn't 12030 09:47:17,040 --> 09:47:21,360 around anymore, but the original spirit 12031 09:47:19,200 --> 09:47:22,000 of Lego lived on in the second 12032 09:47:21,360 --> 09:47:24,000 Christensen [music] 12033 09:47:22,000 --> 09:47:26,400 generation. 12034 09:47:24,000 --> 09:47:28,560 But he also had something to add. 12035 09:47:26,400 --> 09:47:31,916 Godfred believed Lego should be more 12036 09:47:28,560 --> 09:47:33,436 than toys. It should be a system. A 12037 09:47:31,916 --> 09:47:36,160 system where [music] every piece 12038 09:47:33,436 --> 09:47:38,080 connected with every other piece across 12039 09:47:36,160 --> 09:47:40,160 every set. 12040 09:47:38,080 --> 09:47:42,720 This created a language of creativity 12041 09:47:40,160 --> 09:47:46,400 and [music] possibilities. And a single 12042 09:47:42,720 --> 09:47:49,040 idea changed everything. Suddenly, LEGO 12043 09:47:46,400 --> 09:47:51,520 wasn't a collection of toys, but an 12044 09:47:49,040 --> 09:47:54,080 entire universe. 12045 09:47:51,520 --> 09:47:56,000 The company began to grow far beyond its 12046 09:47:54,080 --> 09:47:58,720 original frontiers. 12047 09:47:56,000 --> 09:48:02,000 During the 1960s and '7s, [music] 12048 09:47:58,720 --> 09:48:05,916 Lego expanded across Europe, Germany, 12049 09:48:02,000 --> 09:48:09,436 Sweden, the UK. Villand, once a small 12050 09:48:05,916 --> 09:48:11,680 village, became a global hub of play. 12051 09:48:09,436 --> 09:48:13,436 Lego then built its own airport, 12052 09:48:11,680 --> 09:48:15,680 factories, and distribution [music] 12053 09:48:13,436 --> 09:48:18,320 centers. In the world of construction 12054 09:48:15,680 --> 09:48:21,040 toys, we know that Lego isn't the only 12055 09:48:18,320 --> 09:48:25,596 brand around. 12056 09:48:21,040 --> 09:48:28,240 What Lego provides is a quality product. 12057 09:48:25,596 --> 09:48:31,040 Maybe one part is wrong for every 10,000 12058 09:48:28,240 --> 09:48:33,840 or 100,000 items. And if you are missing 12059 09:48:31,040 --> 09:48:36,000 an item from a box, or if it is faulty, 12060 09:48:33,840 --> 09:48:37,436 the company's after sales service will 12061 09:48:36,000 --> 09:48:40,916 not question the fact that you are 12062 09:48:37,436 --> 09:48:40,916 missing a part. 12063 09:48:41,756 --> 09:48:48,000 And then the magic happened. 12064 09:48:45,360 --> 09:48:50,880 Lego introduced something no toy company 12065 09:48:48,000 --> 09:48:56,080 had done at scale. Fully themed [music] 12066 09:48:50,880 --> 09:48:57,436 worlds. Space town castles. 12067 09:48:56,080 --> 09:48:59,840 Children weren't just building 12068 09:48:57,436 --> 09:49:01,756 structures anymore. They were building 12069 09:48:59,840 --> 09:49:05,276 stories. 12070 09:49:01,756 --> 09:49:07,200 In 1978, LEGO released its most iconic 12071 09:49:05,276 --> 09:49:08,800 invention since the brick, the 12072 09:49:07,200 --> 09:49:11,840 minifigure. 12073 09:49:08,800 --> 09:49:14,240 It had a simple face, hands shaped like 12074 09:49:11,840 --> 09:49:17,916 a sea, and feet made to stand on [music] 12075 09:49:14,240 --> 09:49:19,840 studs. A tiny character that let kids 12076 09:49:17,916 --> 09:49:21,360 project themselves [music] into entire 12077 09:49:19,840 --> 09:49:24,000 universes. 12078 09:49:21,360 --> 09:49:28,240 Stories now had heroes, and [music] Lego 12079 09:49:24,000 --> 09:49:30,400 had a heartbeat. In the late 1970s, Lego 12080 09:49:28,240 --> 09:49:31,756 was already run by the third Christensen 12081 09:49:30,400 --> 09:49:34,992 generation. [music] 12082 09:49:31,756 --> 09:49:36,640 Ole's grandson killed began shaping the 12083 09:49:34,992 --> 09:49:39,200 [music] company into the global 12084 09:49:36,640 --> 09:49:40,800 powerhouse we know today. 12085 09:49:39,200 --> 09:49:43,520 He did so by creating [music] more 12086 09:49:40,800 --> 09:49:46,800 sophisticated lines, bringing in new 12087 09:49:43,520 --> 09:49:49,200 universes, technic brought mechanics, 12088 09:49:46,800 --> 09:49:52,160 pirates brought adventure, and trains 12089 09:49:49,200 --> 09:49:54,560 brought motion. By the late 20th 12090 09:49:52,160 --> 09:49:56,240 century, the global toy market was 12091 09:49:54,560 --> 09:49:58,320 becoming massive. [music] 12092 09:49:56,240 --> 09:49:59,680 Tens of billions of dollars a year 12093 09:49:58,320 --> 09:50:01,596 worth. 12094 09:49:59,680 --> 09:50:04,400 The United States [music] spent more on 12095 09:50:01,596 --> 09:50:07,360 toys than any country on Earth. And 12096 09:50:04,400 --> 09:50:09,756 China produced most of them, nearly 3/4 12097 09:50:07,360 --> 09:50:12,720 of the world's total. 12098 09:50:09,756 --> 09:50:15,616 In this booming landscape, Lego wasn't 12099 09:50:12,720 --> 09:50:17,636 just another toy. It was the toy. 12100 09:50:15,616 --> 09:50:17,636 [music] 12101 09:50:23,200 --> 09:50:29,040 By the late 1990s, Lego was flying high. 12102 09:50:27,040 --> 09:50:31,276 It had become one of the most admired 12103 09:50:29,040 --> 09:50:32,720 companies in Europe. A creative 12104 09:50:31,276 --> 09:50:35,360 powerhouse built on the [music] 12105 09:50:32,720 --> 09:50:37,680 philosophy of imagination and creation. 12106 09:50:35,360 --> 09:50:39,360 We're not focused only on childhood, but 12107 09:50:37,680 --> 09:50:41,916 on something that has quite literally 12108 09:50:39,360 --> 09:50:44,080 built us, pun intended, shaping our 12109 09:50:41,916 --> 09:50:46,800 personalities through Lego from an early 12110 09:50:44,080 --> 09:50:50,972 age. Those memories became a foundation 12111 09:50:46,800 --> 09:50:52,800 we've kept building on over time. 12112 09:50:50,972 --> 09:50:54,960 [music] That's why exhibitions like this 12113 09:50:52,800 --> 09:50:57,916 bring us straight back to childhood. The 12114 09:50:54,960 --> 09:51:00,000 audience here is very diverse, but once 12115 09:50:57,916 --> 09:51:02,240 people walk in, they all become the boy 12116 09:51:00,000 --> 09:51:05,200 or girl they once were. 12117 09:51:02,240 --> 09:51:07,520 >> But it's not all gold that glitters. 12118 09:51:05,200 --> 09:51:10,480 Under the surface, something dangerous 12119 09:51:07,520 --> 09:51:12,720 was creeping in. The toy market was 12120 09:51:10,480 --> 09:51:14,080 changing fast. Children were spending 12121 09:51:12,720 --> 09:51:17,040 more and more [music] time with video 12122 09:51:14,080 --> 09:51:19,360 games and early computer entertainment. 12123 09:51:17,040 --> 09:51:21,100 Sony's PlayStation, Nintendo, and 12124 09:51:19,360 --> 09:51:24,320 Hasbro's electronic toys were capturing 12125 09:51:21,100 --> 09:51:27,596 [music] attention. And LEGO, determined 12126 09:51:24,320 --> 09:51:29,200 not to fall behind, expanded too far too 12127 09:51:27,596 --> 09:51:31,680 fast. 12128 09:51:29,200 --> 09:51:33,840 Throughout the 1990s, Lego began 12129 09:51:31,680 --> 09:51:36,640 introducing thousands of completely new 12130 09:51:33,840 --> 09:51:39,596 pieces, specialized parts that not only 12131 09:51:36,640 --> 09:51:43,436 worked in one set. A single year could 12132 09:51:39,596 --> 09:51:45,360 bring more than 350 new designs. Each of 12133 09:51:43,436 --> 09:51:47,436 them costing [music] tens of thousands 12134 09:51:45,360 --> 09:51:50,320 of dollars in steel machining and 12135 09:51:47,436 --> 09:51:52,240 precision engineering. 12136 09:51:50,320 --> 09:51:54,480 In 2002, 12137 09:51:52,240 --> 09:51:57,436 Lego had more than 12,000 [music] active 12138 09:51:54,480 --> 09:51:59,916 elements. The system of play, once 12139 09:51:57,436 --> 09:52:03,200 simple and universal, was becoming 12140 09:51:59,916 --> 09:52:06,240 chaotic and difficult to follow. LEGO 12141 09:52:03,200 --> 09:52:08,320 also tried becoming a lifestyle brand. 12142 09:52:06,240 --> 09:52:11,520 New ventures appeared everywhere. 12143 09:52:08,320 --> 09:52:13,680 Clothing lines, theme parks, homegoods, 12144 09:52:11,520 --> 09:52:15,436 cartoon series, even watches and 12145 09:52:13,680 --> 09:52:17,360 sneakers. 12146 09:52:15,436 --> 09:52:19,916 But these projects drained resources 12147 09:52:17,360 --> 09:52:24,000 without reinforcing the core product. 12148 09:52:19,916 --> 09:52:27,840 the brick. And between 1999 [music] and 12149 09:52:24,000 --> 09:52:29,880 2003, LEGO sales collapsed. 12150 09:52:27,840 --> 09:52:31,680 During these years, the company went 12151 09:52:29,880 --> 09:52:35,360 [music] from doubledigit growth to 12152 09:52:31,680 --> 09:52:37,680 struggling. And by 2003, the company was 12153 09:52:35,360 --> 09:52:41,596 losing the equivalent of $1 million a 12154 09:52:37,680 --> 09:52:44,080 day. In a global toy market still worth 12155 09:52:41,596 --> 09:52:46,880 more than $70 billion US [music] at the 12156 09:52:44,080 --> 09:52:48,880 time, Lego, once the king of the toy 12157 09:52:46,880 --> 09:52:50,800 box, was only a few steps away [music] 12158 09:52:48,880 --> 09:52:53,916 from bankruptcy. 12159 09:52:50,800 --> 09:52:58,160 Times were dark, but a spark of genius 12160 09:52:53,916 --> 09:53:00,560 appeared. In 1999, LEGO signed its first 12161 09:52:58,160 --> 09:53:02,400 ever licensing deal with no other than 12162 09:53:00,560 --> 09:53:05,436 Lucasfilm. 12163 09:53:02,400 --> 09:53:08,720 The timing was perfect. Star Wars 12164 09:53:05,436 --> 09:53:11,436 Episode 1 was about to hit theaters. 12165 09:53:08,720 --> 09:53:14,480 Hype was global and the first Lego Star 12166 09:53:11,436 --> 09:53:17,680 Wars sets were instant hits, not just 12167 09:53:14,480 --> 09:53:19,756 with children, with adults. Collectors 12168 09:53:17,680 --> 09:53:21,840 lined up to buy the X-wing, the 12169 09:53:19,756 --> 09:53:25,200 Snowspeeder, or the first Millennium 12170 09:53:21,840 --> 09:53:28,000 Falcon. For the first time in LEGO's 12171 09:53:25,200 --> 09:53:30,800 history, adults, including those in 12172 09:53:28,000 --> 09:53:31,680 their 30s and 40s, were buying sets for 12173 09:53:30,800 --> 09:53:33,680 themselves. 12174 09:53:31,680 --> 09:53:36,320 >> The adult fan of Lego community is 12175 09:53:33,680 --> 09:53:38,400 getting bigger. This is because Lego is 12176 09:53:36,320 --> 09:53:40,960 not the same as it was 20 or 30 years 12177 09:53:38,400 --> 09:53:43,200 ago. 12178 09:53:40,960 --> 09:53:45,040 Before, Lego was only seen as a toy to 12179 09:53:43,200 --> 09:53:48,040 play with when it was cold and you were 12180 09:53:45,040 --> 09:53:48,040 indoors. 12181 09:53:48,400 --> 09:53:53,276 Today, Lego is much more than a toy. 12182 09:53:50,880 --> 09:53:55,596 It's used to create logos to design 12183 09:53:53,276 --> 09:53:58,640 dynamic group activities. And it also 12184 09:53:55,596 --> 09:54:00,880 represents a shift in how we see it. 12185 09:53:58,640 --> 09:54:03,276 years ago, if you said you played with 12186 09:54:00,880 --> 09:54:05,680 Lego or built Lego, you almost had to 12187 09:54:03,276 --> 09:54:07,520 explain yourself that you were at home 12188 09:54:05,680 --> 09:54:10,320 playing with little figures making up 12189 09:54:07,520 --> 09:54:12,160 battles. What we do today is different. 12190 09:54:10,320 --> 09:54:15,916 We come together as a community of 12191 09:54:12,160 --> 09:54:17,756 adults and Lego has recognized that. 12192 09:54:15,916 --> 09:54:20,080 That's why more and more products are 12193 09:54:17,756 --> 09:54:22,720 now designed specifically for adults, 12194 09:54:20,080 --> 09:54:25,720 more complex to build, and also more 12195 09:54:22,720 --> 09:54:25,720 expensive. 12196 09:54:26,880 --> 09:54:30,640 This kid demographic [music] 12197 09:54:28,640 --> 09:54:33,520 would later become one of LEGO's most 12198 09:54:30,640 --> 09:54:34,400 profitable segments. More licenses 12199 09:54:33,520 --> 09:54:37,276 followed. [music] 12200 09:54:34,400 --> 09:54:39,276 Harry Potter, Spider-Man, Batman, 12201 09:54:37,276 --> 09:54:42,320 Indiana Jones, and later [music] the 12202 09:54:39,276 --> 09:54:43,916 newest Marvel Cinematic Universe. 12203 09:54:42,320 --> 09:54:45,596 Even though LEGO learned that 12204 09:54:43,916 --> 09:54:48,320 storytelling sells, [music] 12205 09:54:45,596 --> 09:54:50,640 in 2004, losses were mounting and 12206 09:54:48,320 --> 09:54:53,120 survival was uncertain. 12207 09:54:50,640 --> 09:54:54,640 And then the company made a radical 12208 09:54:53,120 --> 09:54:57,040 decision. 12209 09:54:54,640 --> 09:54:59,436 For the first time in its history, the 12210 09:54:57,040 --> 09:55:03,120 company appointed a CEO from outside the 12211 09:54:59,436 --> 09:55:05,520 Christensen family, Jurgen Victor, 12212 09:55:03,120 --> 09:55:06,960 a 35-year-old former McKenzie 12213 09:55:05,520 --> 09:55:10,880 consultant. [music] 12214 09:55:06,960 --> 09:55:14,284 He was calm, precise, analytical, 12215 09:55:10,880 --> 09:55:17,596 and brutally honest. His diagnosis 12216 09:55:14,284 --> 09:55:20,160 [music] was simple. Lego had forgotten 12217 09:55:17,596 --> 09:55:22,480 what made it Lego. 12218 09:55:20,160 --> 09:55:25,520 Kutto cut the number of unique elements 12219 09:55:22,480 --> 09:55:28,400 by nearly 50%. He sold off the [music] 12220 09:55:25,520 --> 09:55:31,200 theme parks. He shut down unprofitable 12221 09:55:28,400 --> 09:55:33,280 production facilities. He centralized 12222 09:55:31,200 --> 09:55:34,240 supply chains, standardized materials, 12223 09:55:33,280 --> 09:55:35,916 [music] 12224 09:55:34,240 --> 09:55:39,040 and brought back discipline to the 12225 09:55:35,916 --> 09:55:43,800 system. But more important, he put the 12226 09:55:39,040 --> 09:55:43,800 brick back at the center of the company. 12227 09:55:45,436 --> 09:55:50,320 This turnaround didn't happen in 12228 09:55:47,276 --> 09:55:53,680 isolation. The global toy industry was 12229 09:55:50,320 --> 09:55:56,240 undergoing a seismic change. China was 12230 09:55:53,680 --> 09:55:58,720 producing nearly 75% of the world's 12231 09:55:56,240 --> 09:56:01,840 toys, being the largest manufacturing 12232 09:55:58,720 --> 09:56:04,000 consolidation in toy history. 12233 09:56:01,840 --> 09:56:06,560 Meanwhile, the United States had become 12234 09:56:04,000 --> 09:56:08,652 the single largest consumer, responsible 12235 09:56:06,560 --> 09:56:11,800 for nearly onethird of the global toy 12236 09:56:08,652 --> 09:56:11,800 [music] spending. 12237 09:56:12,000 --> 09:56:19,132 By 2005, the toy market was worth close 12238 09:56:15,596 --> 09:56:22,240 to $80 billion US. But it was brutally 12239 09:56:19,132 --> 09:56:24,960 [music] competitive as well. Seasonality 12240 09:56:22,240 --> 09:56:27,916 was extreme. Nearly half of the annual 12241 09:56:24,960 --> 09:56:30,480 toy sales occurred in just 3 months from 12242 09:56:27,916 --> 09:56:33,596 October [music] to December. 12243 09:56:30,480 --> 09:56:35,680 Companies lived or died by Christmas. 12244 09:56:33,596 --> 09:56:38,480 Mattel was battling declining Barbie 12245 09:56:35,680 --> 09:56:39,840 sales. Hasbro was betting its future on 12246 09:56:38,480 --> 09:56:41,436 Transformers and board game 12247 09:56:39,840 --> 09:56:42,960 reinventions. 12248 09:56:41,436 --> 09:56:46,240 Electronics [music] were eating market 12249 09:56:42,960 --> 09:56:50,640 share across every age group. In this 12250 09:56:46,240 --> 09:56:56,596 scenario, LEGO rebuilt and refocused and 12251 09:56:50,640 --> 09:56:56,596 then began rising above all of them. 12252 09:56:59,840 --> 09:57:07,520 Between 2008 and 2015, LEGO entered a 12253 09:57:04,080 --> 09:57:08,640 new era, a renaissance driven by design, 12254 09:57:07,520 --> 09:57:12,560 storytelling, [music] 12255 09:57:08,640 --> 09:57:14,400 digital engagement, and adult passion. 12256 09:57:12,560 --> 09:57:16,720 The company launched the ultimate 12257 09:57:14,400 --> 09:57:19,276 collector series, producing [music] the 12258 09:57:16,720 --> 09:57:20,800 largest, most detailed models in toy 12259 09:57:19,276 --> 09:57:23,040 history. 12260 09:57:20,800 --> 09:57:24,632 LEGO architecture brought landmarks to 12261 09:57:23,040 --> 09:57:24,640 coffee tables. 12262 09:57:24,632 --> 09:57:26,880 >> [music] 12263 09:57:24,640 --> 09:57:29,520 >> Modular buildings turned living rooms 12264 09:57:26,880 --> 09:57:31,916 into miniature cities, and adults were 12265 09:57:29,520 --> 09:57:34,800 no longer hiding their Lego hobby, but 12266 09:57:31,916 --> 09:57:36,800 embracing it. My story with Lego began 12267 09:57:34,800 --> 09:57:38,800 in the early '9s when I was a small 12268 09:57:36,800 --> 09:57:40,880 child. 12269 09:57:38,800 --> 09:57:42,800 I started playing, but then I stopped 12270 09:57:40,880 --> 09:57:44,480 for a while. 12271 09:57:42,800 --> 09:57:46,800 This is what most of us want to do when 12272 09:57:44,480 --> 09:57:51,160 we are teenagers to do other hobbies and 12273 09:57:46,800 --> 09:57:51,160 spend less time playing with Lego. 12274 09:57:51,756 --> 09:57:57,040 After that, when I was in my early 20s, 12275 09:57:53,680 --> 09:57:59,200 I started collecting Lego. I met people 12276 09:57:57,040 --> 09:58:01,756 from the Valencian community and founded 12277 09:57:59,200 --> 09:58:03,680 Valrech. 12278 09:58:01,756 --> 09:58:06,240 That eventually led me to a television 12279 09:58:03,680 --> 09:58:08,400 show where I took part and won. From 12280 09:58:06,240 --> 09:58:11,880 there, companies began approaching me to 12281 09:58:08,400 --> 09:58:11,880 develop projects. 12282 09:58:13,276 --> 09:58:16,880 At first, this hadn't even occurred to 12283 09:58:15,120 --> 09:58:19,276 me, 12284 09:58:16,880 --> 09:58:21,520 but I started to see a growing demand, 12285 09:58:19,276 --> 09:58:23,756 whether it was building a corporate kit, 12286 09:58:21,520 --> 09:58:27,040 like a transport company's truck, or 12287 09:58:23,756 --> 09:58:28,800 even a company's logistics headquarters. 12288 09:58:27,040 --> 09:58:30,800 This market opened up a professional 12289 09:58:28,800 --> 09:58:32,720 path for me. 12290 09:58:30,800 --> 09:58:36,028 It supports me financially, but more 12291 09:58:32,720 --> 09:58:37,840 importantly, it's deeply rewarding. 12292 09:58:36,028 --> 09:58:39,436 [music] Many of these projects challenge 12293 09:58:37,840 --> 09:58:42,960 me to build things I would never choose 12294 09:58:39,436 --> 09:58:45,436 on my own. But once a challenge is set, 12295 09:58:42,960 --> 09:58:48,080 build this. My mind immediately starts 12296 09:58:45,436 --> 09:58:50,240 collecting ideas, figuring out how to 12297 09:58:48,080 --> 09:58:54,596 shape them and bring the project to life 12298 09:58:50,240 --> 09:58:54,596 in the best possible way. 12299 09:58:55,916 --> 09:59:01,276 The adult fans of Lego [music] 12300 09:58:57,680 --> 09:59:04,320 skyrocketed. Forums, conventions, fan 12301 09:59:01,276 --> 09:59:07,756 events, engineering clubs. A global 12302 09:59:04,320 --> 09:59:10,160 movement emerged. By 2014, [music] 12303 09:59:07,756 --> 09:59:11,840 adults accounted for nearly onethird of 12304 09:59:10,160 --> 09:59:14,320 Lego sales. 12305 09:59:11,840 --> 09:59:16,560 >> To anyone who thinks Lego is only for 12306 09:59:14,320 --> 09:59:18,080 children, I'd say come and see the 12307 09:59:16,560 --> 09:59:19,916 exhibition. 12308 09:59:18,080 --> 09:59:22,720 See what we're capable of creating with 12309 09:59:19,916 --> 09:59:26,720 Lego pieces and how imagination develops 12310 09:59:22,720 --> 09:59:28,880 in both children and adults. 12311 09:59:26,720 --> 09:59:31,756 Children work within certain limits and 12312 09:59:28,880 --> 09:59:34,480 see things differently. But adults with 12313 09:59:31,756 --> 09:59:37,120 a wider range of colors, shapes, and 12314 09:59:34,480 --> 09:59:40,320 ways to use the pieces can explore just 12315 09:59:37,120 --> 09:59:42,320 how much is possible. 12316 09:59:40,320 --> 09:59:44,640 It was a radical shift in the economics 12317 09:59:42,320 --> 09:59:47,040 of play. And [music] then came the 12318 09:59:44,640 --> 09:59:50,080 cultural explosion. 12319 09:59:47,040 --> 09:59:53,596 In 2014, the Lego movie shattered 12320 09:59:50,080 --> 09:59:56,480 expectations, earning nearly 500 million 12321 09:59:53,596 --> 09:59:59,436 US at the [music] box office. 12322 09:59:56,480 --> 10:00:03,360 What started as a toy was now pop 12323 09:59:59,436 --> 10:00:05,120 culture. By the mid [music] 2010s, LEGO 12324 10:00:03,360 --> 10:00:07,520 was the world's most valuable toy 12325 10:00:05,120 --> 10:00:10,720 company, even surpassing Mattel, [music] 12326 10:00:07,520 --> 10:00:12,720 Hasbro, and every other competitor. 12327 10:00:10,720 --> 10:00:16,160 The brick that started [music] it all 12328 10:00:12,720 --> 10:00:19,720 was no longer just a product. It was a 12329 10:00:16,160 --> 10:00:19,720 global icon. 12330 10:00:21,596 --> 10:00:25,916 The LEGO Group stands today as one of 12331 10:00:23,916 --> 10:00:27,360 the most efficient, profitable, and 12332 10:00:25,916 --> 10:00:30,000 culturally [music] influential toy 12333 10:00:27,360 --> 10:00:30,960 companies on Earth. Its factories run 12334 10:00:30,000 --> 10:00:32,800 with [clears throat] near perfect 12335 10:00:30,960 --> 10:00:34,960 precision. 12336 10:00:32,800 --> 10:00:38,160 Its design teams develop thousands of 12337 10:00:34,960 --> 10:00:40,160 prototypes each year. Its supply chain 12338 10:00:38,160 --> 10:00:42,960 delivers billions of bricks that must 12339 10:00:40,160 --> 10:00:44,800 all fit together flawlessly across 12340 10:00:42,960 --> 10:00:48,560 decades. 12341 10:00:44,800 --> 10:00:52,640 In a global toy market worth roughly 120 12342 10:00:48,560 --> 10:00:56,400 billion a year, Lego commands nearly 9% 12343 10:00:52,640 --> 10:00:59,596 of all worldwide toy sales. No other toy 12344 10:00:56,400 --> 10:01:02,480 brand, not Barbie, not Marvel figures, 12345 10:00:59,596 --> 10:01:05,360 not Nintendo merchandise, maintains such 12346 10:01:02,480 --> 10:01:07,436 consistency across continents, genders, 12347 10:01:05,360 --> 10:01:09,436 and generations. [music] 12348 10:01:07,436 --> 10:01:12,640 And unlike most toy companies that 12349 10:01:09,436 --> 10:01:14,000 outsource manufacturing, LEGO controls a 12350 10:01:12,640 --> 10:01:16,504 significant portion of its own 12351 10:01:14,000 --> 10:01:17,120 production with major hubs in Denmark, 12352 10:01:16,504 --> 10:01:19,680 [music] 12353 10:01:17,120 --> 10:01:21,680 Hungary, Mexico, China, and the Czech 12354 10:01:19,680 --> 10:01:24,480 Republic. 12355 10:01:21,680 --> 10:01:27,040 This vertical integration reduces risk, 12356 10:01:24,480 --> 10:01:28,880 stabilizes quality, and protects one of 12357 10:01:27,040 --> 10:01:32,240 the most important values in the 12358 10:01:28,880 --> 10:01:34,480 company's DNA, precision. 12359 10:01:32,240 --> 10:01:36,800 Every LEGO brick must be manufactured 12360 10:01:34,480 --> 10:01:39,916 with tolerances thinner than a strand of 12361 10:01:36,800 --> 10:01:43,436 hair. If the clutch is too tight, the 12362 10:01:39,916 --> 10:01:46,560 model breaks. If it's too loose, towers 12363 10:01:43,436 --> 10:01:50,080 collapse. Across billions of pieces, 12364 10:01:46,560 --> 10:01:53,436 perfection is not an ambition. It is an 12365 10:01:50,080 --> 10:01:55,520 engineering reality for LEGO. 12366 10:01:53,436 --> 10:01:57,680 This level of detail gives the company 12367 10:01:55,520 --> 10:02:00,400 one of the highest brand trust ratings 12368 10:01:57,680 --> 10:02:02,880 in the world. Parents know the bricks 12369 10:02:00,400 --> 10:02:05,756 will last. Adults know the sets will 12370 10:02:02,880 --> 10:02:08,000 impress. Collectors know the investment 12371 10:02:05,756 --> 10:02:10,240 will hold value. 12372 10:02:08,000 --> 10:02:13,040 The modern toy market is a machine of 12373 10:02:10,240 --> 10:02:14,640 impulse, tradition, celebration, and 12374 10:02:13,040 --> 10:02:16,560 nostalgia. 12375 10:02:14,640 --> 10:02:20,080 In 2025, 12376 10:02:16,560 --> 10:02:23,120 global spending on toys approaches $120 12377 10:02:20,080 --> 10:02:25,916 billion, nearly double what it was two 12378 10:02:23,120 --> 10:02:28,400 decades earlier. The United States 12379 10:02:25,916 --> 10:02:29,916 remains the world's largest consumer, 12380 10:02:28,400 --> 10:02:33,040 accounting for roughly onethird [music] 12381 10:02:29,916 --> 10:02:35,680 of global sales. A typical American 12382 10:02:33,040 --> 10:02:38,400 household with children may spend $300 12383 10:02:35,680 --> 10:02:41,360 to $400 per child per [music] year on 12384 10:02:38,400 --> 10:02:43,756 toys. This is more than five times the 12385 10:02:41,360 --> 10:02:45,520 global average. 12386 10:02:43,756 --> 10:02:47,840 Europe forms [music] the second largest 12387 10:02:45,520 --> 10:02:51,360 block with strong purchasing power in 12388 10:02:47,840 --> 10:02:53,756 Germany, the United Kingdom and France. 12389 10:02:51,360 --> 10:02:55,360 Asia-Pacific is rapidly growing, 12390 10:02:53,756 --> 10:02:58,240 especially in China, [music] South 12391 10:02:55,360 --> 10:03:01,756 Korea, and Japan. Driven by rising 12392 10:02:58,240 --> 10:03:04,160 middle classes and urban lifestyles. 12393 10:03:01,756 --> 10:03:07,520 But the most important shift of the last 12394 10:03:04,160 --> 10:03:09,168 decade is not geographic. It is 12395 10:03:07,520 --> 10:03:11,188 demographic. 12396 10:03:09,168 --> 10:03:11,188 [laughter] 12397 10:03:14,560 --> 10:03:19,520 Adults, once considered irrelevant to 12398 10:03:17,360 --> 10:03:22,560 the toy industry, are [music] now one of 12399 10:03:19,520 --> 10:03:25,544 the most powerful forces. This growing 12400 10:03:22,560 --> 10:03:28,000 segment, commonly called the kid market, 12401 10:03:25,544 --> 10:03:31,916 [music] now represents between 25 and 12402 10:03:28,000 --> 10:03:34,480 30% of all toy purchases worldwide. 12403 10:03:31,916 --> 10:03:37,596 Adults buy toys for nostalgia, for 12404 10:03:34,480 --> 10:03:40,480 stress relief, for display, for 12405 10:03:37,596 --> 10:03:42,320 identity. Lego is the undisputed 12406 10:03:40,480 --> 10:03:44,720 champion of this movement. 12407 10:03:42,320 --> 10:03:48,120 >> Unlike other hobbies, Lego gives me a 12408 10:03:44,720 --> 10:03:48,120 sense of calm. 12409 10:03:49,200 --> 10:03:53,840 It lets me take ideas from my mind, 12410 10:03:51,596 --> 10:03:57,200 bring them to life, think them through, 12411 10:03:53,840 --> 10:04:00,000 and simply enjoy the process. Right now, 12412 10:03:57,200 --> 10:04:02,320 I'm trying to instill that in my son to 12413 10:04:00,000 --> 10:04:04,480 enjoy himself, to learn to see colors 12414 10:04:02,320 --> 10:04:08,000 and shapes, and to understand that with 12415 10:04:04,480 --> 10:04:11,276 imagination, anything is possible. 12416 10:04:08,000 --> 10:04:13,840 Its premium sets, Technic Hypercars, 12417 10:04:11,276 --> 10:04:16,560 Star Wars Ultimate Collector Series, 12418 10:04:13,840 --> 10:04:21,200 iconic landmarks, regularly exceed 12419 10:04:16,560 --> 10:04:23,916 prices of $30, 500, even $800. 12420 10:04:21,200 --> 10:04:25,756 They sell out within hours. They hold 12421 10:04:23,916 --> 10:04:28,640 aftermarket values like fine 12422 10:04:25,756 --> 10:04:30,880 collectibles. This adult segment has 12423 10:04:28,640 --> 10:04:33,916 reshaped the entire financial landscape 12424 10:04:30,880 --> 10:04:36,480 of the company. It provides stability 12425 10:04:33,916 --> 10:04:38,640 when [music] children's trends shift. It 12426 10:04:36,480 --> 10:04:41,916 creates recurring revenue from loyal 12427 10:04:38,640 --> 10:04:44,960 fans and it strengthens LEGO's position 12428 10:04:41,916 --> 10:04:46,560 as a crossgenerational brand, something 12429 10:04:44,960 --> 10:04:48,320 few toy companies have [music] ever 12430 10:04:46,560 --> 10:04:50,560 achieved. 12431 10:04:48,320 --> 10:04:53,520 Seasonality still dictates much of the 12432 10:04:50,560 --> 10:04:55,840 global toy market. Every year, nearly 12433 10:04:53,520 --> 10:04:59,200 half of all toy sales occur between 12434 10:04:55,840 --> 10:05:02,080 October and December. Companies live or 12435 10:04:59,200 --> 10:05:05,276 die by holiday forecasting, inventory 12436 10:05:02,080 --> 10:05:08,000 strategy, and shipment timing. But LEGO 12437 10:05:05,276 --> 10:05:10,880 has become the exception. Adult 12438 10:05:08,000 --> 10:05:13,200 collectors buy year round. Digital 12439 10:05:10,880 --> 10:05:16,240 experiences drive sales outside the 12440 10:05:13,200 --> 10:05:18,080 holiday season. Licensed launches create 12441 10:05:16,240 --> 10:05:19,596 [music] anticipation even in slow 12442 10:05:18,080 --> 10:05:22,320 quarters. 12443 10:05:19,596 --> 10:05:24,320 LEGO has effectively freed itself or at 12444 10:05:22,320 --> 10:05:26,400 least partially from the seasonal 12445 10:05:24,320 --> 10:05:29,840 dependency that has defined the toy 12446 10:05:26,400 --> 10:05:33,756 industry for over a century. The brick 12447 10:05:29,840 --> 10:05:36,240 is physical, tangible, mechanical. But 12448 10:05:33,756 --> 10:05:40,000 Lego's success in the 21st century 12449 10:05:36,240 --> 10:05:43,680 extends into digital worlds. Star Wars, 12450 10:05:40,000 --> 10:05:45,680 Batman, Marvel. These games defined an 12451 10:05:43,680 --> 10:05:48,720 entire generation of familyfriendly 12452 10:05:45,680 --> 10:05:51,436 titles. They sold tens of millions of 12453 10:05:48,720 --> 10:05:54,400 copies. They introduced humor, 12454 10:05:51,436 --> 10:05:57,276 storytelling, and simplicity to a medium 12455 10:05:54,400 --> 10:05:59,436 often dominated by complexity. 12456 10:05:57,276 --> 10:06:02,400 For many children born after the year 12457 10:05:59,436 --> 10:06:06,320 2000, Lego was not discovered in a toy 12458 10:06:02,400 --> 10:06:09,120 box, but on a screen. The cinematic leap 12459 10:06:06,320 --> 10:06:12,000 came in 2014 when the Lego movie 12460 10:06:09,120 --> 10:06:14,720 premiered to global acclaim. It earned 12461 10:06:12,000 --> 10:06:17,360 nearly half a billion dollars. Most 12462 10:06:14,720 --> 10:06:20,320 importantly, it reframed Lego as a 12463 10:06:17,360 --> 10:06:22,480 cultural idea, not a product. 12464 10:06:20,320 --> 10:06:25,360 The film taught a global audience that 12465 10:06:22,480 --> 10:06:28,000 creativity matters, that imperfection is 12466 10:06:25,360 --> 10:06:30,560 beautiful, that building and rebuilding 12467 10:06:28,000 --> 10:06:33,916 are not failures, they are the process 12468 10:06:30,560 --> 10:06:36,720 of play. Lego Batman expanded the 12469 10:06:33,916 --> 10:06:39,916 concept. Lego Ninjago created an 12470 10:06:36,720 --> 10:06:42,480 entirely new generation of fans and Lego 12471 10:06:39,916 --> 10:06:45,120 Masters on television turned building 12472 10:06:42,480 --> 10:06:47,916 into a competitive art form. 12473 10:06:45,120 --> 10:06:51,200 The brand had moved beyond toys, beyond 12474 10:06:47,916 --> 10:06:53,756 stories, beyond bricks. It had become 12475 10:06:51,200 --> 10:06:56,756 part of a cultural grammar of the 21st 12476 10:06:53,756 --> 10:06:56,756 century. 12477 10:07:00,480 --> 10:07:04,800 Long before STEM became a global 12478 10:07:02,560 --> 10:07:08,080 movement, Lego was already teaching 12479 10:07:04,800 --> 10:07:11,520 children how to think like engineers. In 12480 10:07:08,080 --> 10:07:13,916 the 1990s, Lego Mindstorms introduced 12481 10:07:11,520 --> 10:07:17,360 programmable robotics to students around 12482 10:07:13,916 --> 10:07:20,160 the world. Later sets, we [music] do 12483 10:07:17,360 --> 10:07:22,400 Spike Prime Boost brought coding, 12484 10:07:20,160 --> 10:07:25,680 sensors, and motors into classrooms and 12485 10:07:22,400 --> 10:07:27,916 homes. Today, [music] LEGO Education 12486 10:07:25,680 --> 10:07:30,160 works with governments, schools, and 12487 10:07:27,916 --> 10:07:32,480 universities to bring hands-on learning 12488 10:07:30,160 --> 10:07:35,120 to millions of students. [music] 12489 10:07:32,480 --> 10:07:37,436 The philosophy is simple. Children learn 12490 10:07:35,120 --> 10:07:40,480 best through play. This approach [music] 12491 10:07:37,436 --> 10:07:42,960 shapes future engineers, designers, and 12492 10:07:40,480 --> 10:07:44,320 problem solvers. It helps children 12493 10:07:42,960 --> 10:07:47,120 [music] experiment in ways that 12494 10:07:44,320 --> 10:07:50,000 textbooks cannot. And it continues 12495 10:07:47,120 --> 10:07:52,160 Olirk's belief that play is not a 12496 10:07:50,000 --> 10:07:54,880 distraction from learning, but the 12497 10:07:52,160 --> 10:07:56,880 foundation of it. 12498 10:07:54,880 --> 10:07:57,680 In a world increasingly focused on 12499 10:07:56,880 --> 10:07:59,680 sustainability, 12500 10:07:57,680 --> 10:08:01,680 >> from my experience, what makes Lego 12501 10:07:59,680 --> 10:08:03,264 different from other construction toys 12502 10:08:01,680 --> 10:08:04,480 is its growing commitment to inclusion. 12503 10:08:03,264 --> 10:08:06,800 [music] 12504 10:08:04,480 --> 10:08:08,160 In recent years, LEGO has actively 12505 10:08:06,800 --> 10:08:10,400 embraced people with different 12506 10:08:08,160 --> 10:08:12,320 abilities. For example, by including 12507 10:08:10,400 --> 10:08:15,040 figures in wheelchairs and releasing 12508 10:08:12,320 --> 10:08:16,880 sets in Braille. These are things most 12509 10:08:15,040 --> 10:08:18,960 other brands simply don't offer, but 12510 10:08:16,880 --> 10:08:20,948 LEGO does. 12511 10:08:18,960 --> 10:08:23,120 In addition, LEGO is strongly committed 12512 10:08:20,948 --> 10:08:24,720 [music] to the environment. 12513 10:08:23,120 --> 10:08:26,960 They're producing more and more pieces 12514 10:08:24,720 --> 10:08:28,880 using recycled plastic and replacing 12515 10:08:26,960 --> 10:08:31,680 plastic packaging with paper to reduce 12516 10:08:28,880 --> 10:08:34,320 waste, something other brands simply 12517 10:08:31,680 --> 10:08:37,360 don't do. 12518 10:08:34,320 --> 10:08:39,840 Lego faces a unique challenge. Its 12519 10:08:37,360 --> 10:08:42,320 bricks are made to last forever. A 12520 10:08:39,840 --> 10:08:46,080 blessing for creativity, but a concern 12521 10:08:42,320 --> 10:08:48,080 in an era of plastic waste. In response, 12522 10:08:46,080 --> 10:08:50,000 LEGO has invested hundreds of millions 12523 10:08:48,080 --> 10:08:52,160 of dollars into developing more 12524 10:08:50,000 --> 10:08:53,840 sustainable materials. 12525 10:08:52,160 --> 10:08:56,800 Plant-based polyethylene [music] 12526 10:08:53,840 --> 10:08:59,596 is already used for leaves and trees. 12527 10:08:56,800 --> 10:09:01,040 Recycled PT prototypes continue to 12528 10:08:59,596 --> 10:09:03,596 advance. 12529 10:09:01,040 --> 10:09:06,480 Recycled PET prototypes continue to 12530 10:09:03,596 --> 10:09:10,080 advance. New polymer engineering [music] 12531 10:09:06,480 --> 10:09:13,276 aims to create bricks as durable as ABS 12532 10:09:10,080 --> 10:09:16,160 without the environmental cost. 12533 10:09:13,276 --> 10:09:18,640 This transition [music] is not simple. A 12534 10:09:16,160 --> 10:09:21,436 Lego brick must interlock with perfect 12535 10:09:18,640 --> 10:09:23,436 precision. A fraction of a millimeter 12536 10:09:21,436 --> 10:09:25,276 can make the difference between wonder 12537 10:09:23,436 --> 10:09:27,916 and frustration. 12538 10:09:25,276 --> 10:09:30,320 But the mission is clear. A toy that 12539 10:09:27,916 --> 10:09:33,120 lasts forever should also protect the 12540 10:09:30,320 --> 10:09:35,620 world [music] it is played in. Play is 12541 10:09:33,120 --> 10:09:36,480 not a luxury. Play is exploration. 12542 10:09:35,620 --> 10:09:38,720 [music] 12543 10:09:36,480 --> 10:09:41,040 Play is curiosity. 12544 10:09:38,720 --> 10:09:42,880 Play is the earliest form of human 12545 10:09:41,040 --> 10:09:44,960 creativity. 12546 10:09:42,880 --> 10:09:47,276 From wooden ducks in a small Danish 12547 10:09:44,960 --> 10:09:49,596 workshop [music] to interlocking bricks 12548 10:09:47,276 --> 10:09:52,960 that span generations 12549 10:09:49,596 --> 10:09:55,840 to movies, video games, robotics, and 12550 10:09:52,960 --> 10:09:58,480 global fan communities. LEGO has 12551 10:09:55,840 --> 10:10:02,320 remained loyal to a simple truth. When 12552 10:09:58,480 --> 10:10:06,000 we build, we grow. When we imagine, we 12553 10:10:02,320 --> 10:10:09,000 expand. When we play, we become more 12554 10:10:06,000 --> 10:10:09,000 human. 12555 10:10:12,880 --> 10:10:18,196 More than a century ago, a carpenter 12556 10:10:15,680 --> 10:10:20,000 rebuilt his workshop after a fire. 12557 10:10:18,196 --> 10:10:21,520 [music] He rebuilt it again after 12558 10:10:20,000 --> 10:10:24,400 another. 12559 10:10:21,520 --> 10:10:26,800 Not because it was easy, but because he 12560 10:10:24,400 --> 10:10:30,240 believed in the power of making things 12561 10:10:26,800 --> 10:10:31,952 and in the power of play. Today, 12562 10:10:30,240 --> 10:10:35,840 billions of creations have risen from 12563 10:10:31,952 --> 10:10:37,680 [music] that belief. Cities, castles, 12564 10:10:35,840 --> 10:10:39,680 spaceships, 12565 10:10:37,680 --> 10:10:42,880 dreams that exist nowhere else but in 12566 10:10:39,680 --> 10:10:45,840 the minds of the people who build them. 12567 10:10:42,880 --> 10:10:48,080 Lego is not perfect. It has faced 12568 10:10:45,840 --> 10:10:51,916 crises, challenges, [screaming] and 12569 10:10:48,080 --> 10:10:53,916 impossible decisions. But it endures 12570 10:10:51,916 --> 10:10:57,276 through war, through technological 12571 10:10:53,916 --> 10:11:00,960 revolutions, through economic storms. 12572 10:10:57,276 --> 10:11:02,880 Because imagination always endures. 12573 10:11:00,960 --> 10:11:04,240 And as long as there are hands reaching 12574 10:11:02,880 --> 10:11:06,160 for bricks, [music] 12575 10:11:04,240 --> 10:11:08,800 as long as there are minds ready to 12576 10:11:06,160 --> 10:11:11,840 create, the legacy of Ole Kerr 12577 10:11:08,800 --> 10:11:13,200 Christensen will continue. 12578 10:11:11,840 --> 10:11:17,480 Every dream [music] 12579 10:11:13,200 --> 10:11:17,480 starts with a single piece. 12580 10:12:43,680 --> 10:12:51,360 Jensen Huang, the software moat. 12581 10:12:47,916 --> 10:12:54,720 June 18th, 2024. 12582 10:12:51,360 --> 10:12:57,200 For a brief historic moment, the world 12583 10:12:54,720 --> 10:13:00,480 had a new king. 12584 10:12:57,200 --> 10:13:03,680 Jensen Huang, the co-founder and CEO of 12585 10:13:00,480 --> 10:13:06,880 Nvidia, stood at the peak of a $3.4 12586 10:13:03,680 --> 10:13:09,276 trillion mountain. 12587 10:13:06,880 --> 10:13:12,320 Analysts whispered that he wasn't just 12588 10:13:09,276 --> 10:13:15,840 leading a company. He was leading the 12589 10:13:12,320 --> 10:13:18,800 first entity destined for a $4 trillion 12590 10:13:15,840 --> 10:13:20,800 valuation. 12591 10:13:18,800 --> 10:13:24,220 But to understand the man in the leather 12592 10:13:20,800 --> 10:13:27,200 jacket, you cannot look at the triumph. 12593 10:13:24,220 --> 10:13:31,120 [music] You must look at the fear. 12594 10:13:27,200 --> 10:13:35,200 Behind the 250% revenue jumps and the 12595 10:13:31,120 --> 10:13:38,400 soldout age 100 backlogs lies a leader 12596 10:13:35,200 --> 10:13:40,080 obsessed with the cyclical trap. 12597 10:13:38,400 --> 10:13:41,596 In the 60-year history of 12598 10:13:40,080 --> 10:13:44,400 semiconductors, 12599 10:13:41,596 --> 10:13:48,560 giants like Texas Instruments, Intel, 12600 10:13:44,400 --> 10:13:51,520 and Samsung have all held the crown only 12601 10:13:48,560 --> 10:13:54,560 to see it slip away. 12602 10:13:51,520 --> 10:13:59,360 Jensen's mission is simple. Break the 12603 10:13:54,560 --> 10:14:02,480 cycle before it breaks him. 12604 10:13:59,360 --> 10:14:05,120 Flashback to September 1996. 12605 10:14:02,480 --> 10:14:07,520 The golden era of the internet is 12606 10:14:05,120 --> 10:14:11,436 dawning for everyone else but for 12607 10:14:07,520 --> 10:14:14,560 Nvidia. It is a death nail. 12608 10:14:11,436 --> 10:14:17,520 Their first chip, the NV1, is a 12609 10:14:14,560 --> 10:14:19,916 technical ghost rejected by Microsoft's 12610 10:14:17,520 --> 10:14:22,480 DirectX. 12611 10:14:19,916 --> 10:14:25,276 Jensen stands before a dwindling team 12612 10:14:22,480 --> 10:14:28,000 and delivers the most famous mantra in 12613 10:14:25,276 --> 10:14:31,916 Silicon Valley history. 12614 10:14:28,000 --> 10:14:35,436 We have exactly 30 days of oxygen left. 12615 10:14:31,916 --> 10:14:37,840 We are 30 days from bankruptcy. 12616 10:14:35,436 --> 10:14:40,240 How does a man go from cleaning toilets 12617 10:14:37,840 --> 10:14:42,240 in a Kentucky reform school to 12618 10:14:40,240 --> 10:14:45,276 controlling the foundational layer of 12619 10:14:42,240 --> 10:14:48,160 the global AI economy? 12620 10:14:45,276 --> 10:14:51,360 From a red leather booth at a Denny's to 12621 10:14:48,160 --> 10:14:53,680 a legal showdown in the US Supreme Court 12622 10:14:51,360 --> 10:14:55,436 over the very intellectual honesty of 12623 10:14:53,680 --> 10:14:58,080 his empire. 12624 10:14:55,436 --> 10:14:59,680 This is not just a story of silicon and 12625 10:14:58,080 --> 10:15:01,756 software. 12626 10:14:59,680 --> 10:15:04,000 This is the chronicle of the man who 12627 10:15:01,756 --> 10:15:05,596 decided to manufacture intelligence 12628 10:15:04,000 --> 10:15:09,200 itself. 12629 10:15:05,596 --> 10:15:12,640 This is Jensen Hang, the architect of 12630 10:15:09,200 --> 10:15:17,960 the digital brain. 12631 10:15:12,640 --> 10:15:17,960 Chapter one. Forged in the chaos, 12632 10:15:18,160 --> 10:15:24,160 Nvidia was not born from abundance. Its 12633 10:15:21,680 --> 10:15:26,240 DNA was forged in the raw fires of 12634 10:15:24,160 --> 10:15:28,720 survival. 12635 10:15:26,240 --> 10:15:31,520 Jen's son Huang arrived [music] in the 12636 10:15:28,720 --> 10:15:34,080 United States as a young migrant, but 12637 10:15:31,520 --> 10:15:36,400 his destination wasn't an elite prep 12638 10:15:34,080 --> 10:15:38,880 school. Due to a clerical 12639 10:15:36,400 --> 10:15:41,276 misunderstanding by his [music] parents, 12640 10:15:38,880 --> 10:15:44,800 he was sent to Onida Baptist Institute 12641 10:15:41,276 --> 10:15:47,200 in rural Kentucky, a place that at the 12642 10:15:44,800 --> 10:15:49,436 time [music] functioned more as a reform 12643 10:15:47,200 --> 10:15:51,436 school for troubled youths than a 12644 10:15:49,436 --> 10:15:54,560 traditional academy. 12645 10:15:51,436 --> 10:15:56,640 At 9 years old, the future CEO of one of 12646 10:15:54,560 --> 10:15:59,200 the world's most valuable companies 12647 10:15:56,640 --> 10:16:02,160 wasn't coding. He was cleaning the 12648 10:15:59,200 --> 10:16:04,640 toilets of 150 teenagers every [music] 12649 10:16:02,160 --> 10:16:07,200 single afternoon. 12650 10:16:04,640 --> 10:16:08,800 In his personal transcripts, Jensen 12651 10:16:07,200 --> 10:16:12,320 reflects on this with a chilling 12652 10:16:08,800 --> 10:16:14,720 stoicism. I didn't complain. I just 12653 10:16:12,320 --> 10:16:16,640 learned to work hard. 12654 10:16:14,720 --> 10:16:19,360 Bad boy learned the first law of 12655 10:16:16,640 --> 10:16:20,720 accelerated computing decades before it 12656 10:16:19,360 --> 10:16:23,596 existed. [music] 12657 10:16:20,720 --> 10:16:26,160 For a system to be efficient, it must be 12658 10:16:23,596 --> 10:16:28,720 able to process chaos under extreme 12659 10:16:26,160 --> 10:16:31,756 pressure. 12660 10:16:28,720 --> 10:16:34,160 By 15, Jensen was the most efficient 12661 10:16:31,756 --> 10:16:37,276 dishwasher and waiter at a Denny's in 12662 10:16:34,160 --> 10:16:39,756 Portland. I was incredibly shy, he 12663 10:16:37,276 --> 10:16:42,720 admits. But the chaos of the kitchen 12664 10:16:39,756 --> 10:16:45,200 forced me out of my shell. 12665 10:16:42,720 --> 10:16:48,400 It is no coincidence that Nvidia was 12666 10:16:45,200 --> 10:16:51,436 founded in 1993 [music] inside a booth 12667 10:16:48,400 --> 10:16:53,756 at that very same restaurant chain. 12668 10:16:51,436 --> 10:16:56,480 While the world saw the dawn of the PC 12669 10:16:53,756 --> 10:17:00,080 as an office tool for spreadsheets, 12670 10:16:56,480 --> 10:17:04,080 Jensen, Chris Mahovski, and Curtis Pim 12671 10:17:00,080 --> 10:17:08,320 saw a fatal weakness. 12672 10:17:04,080 --> 10:17:11,504 In 1993, Intel's generalpurpose CPU was 12673 10:17:08,320 --> 10:17:13,360 hitting a physical wall. If the future 12674 10:17:11,504 --> 10:17:15,756 [music] of computing was visual and 12675 10:17:13,360 --> 10:17:17,840 immersive, the traditional serial 12676 10:17:15,756 --> 10:17:20,320 architecture would become the bottleneck 12677 10:17:17,840 --> 10:17:23,756 of human progress. 12678 10:17:20,320 --> 10:17:26,880 With only $40,000 in startup capital, 12679 10:17:23,756 --> 10:17:29,360 they founded Nvidia to chase a ghost, 12680 10:17:26,880 --> 10:17:31,276 accelerated computing. 12681 10:17:29,360 --> 10:17:34,320 They bet on a market the rest of the 12682 10:17:31,276 --> 10:17:36,160 industry dismissed as a niche for toys, 12683 10:17:34,320 --> 10:17:38,640 video games. [music] 12684 10:17:36,160 --> 10:17:41,520 Before Jensen, video games were the 12685 10:17:38,640 --> 10:17:43,596 ultimate technological flywheel. 12686 10:17:41,520 --> 10:17:46,400 He knew that if you could master the 12687 10:17:43,596 --> 10:17:48,560 massive realtime rendering of pixels, 12688 10:17:46,400 --> 10:17:50,720 you could eventually simulate reality 12689 10:17:48,560 --> 10:17:53,200 itself. 12690 10:17:50,720 --> 10:17:55,436 But before they could reach that glory, 12691 10:17:53,200 --> 10:18:00,120 they had to survive their first massive 12692 10:17:55,436 --> 10:18:00,120 technical abyss, the NV1. 12693 10:18:07,436 --> 10:18:12,400 By 1995, 12694 10:18:09,276 --> 10:18:15,596 Nvidia's first massive bet, the NV1 12695 10:18:12,400 --> 10:18:18,000 chip, was ready to conquer the market. 12696 10:18:15,596 --> 10:18:20,240 But Jensen Hang had made a catastrophic 12697 10:18:18,000 --> 10:18:21,840 technical gamble. 12698 10:18:20,240 --> 10:18:25,120 At a time when the industry was 12699 10:18:21,840 --> 10:18:27,120 undecided, he bet on quadratic texture 12700 10:18:25,120 --> 10:18:30,800 mapping, a [music] method that used 12701 10:18:27,120 --> 10:18:33,276 curved surfaces to create 3D images. 12702 10:18:30,800 --> 10:18:36,720 It was mathematically intelligent, but 12703 10:18:33,276 --> 10:18:38,720 it was a lonely path. The industry 12704 10:18:36,720 --> 10:18:42,160 hammer dropped when Microsoft released 12705 10:18:38,720 --> 10:18:45,120 its first DirectX API. Microsoft chose 12706 10:18:42,160 --> 10:18:47,840 triangles, not quads, as the universal 12707 10:18:45,120 --> 10:18:49,596 language for PC gaming. 12708 10:18:47,840 --> 10:18:53,120 This decision rendered Nvidia's 12709 10:18:49,596 --> 10:18:56,320 technology instantly obsolete. 12710 10:18:53,120 --> 10:19:00,080 The NV1 wasn't just a failure, it was a 12711 10:18:56,320 --> 10:19:02,856 dead end. The company was bleeding cash. 12712 10:19:00,080 --> 10:19:05,276 And as Jensen famously put it, they were 12713 10:19:02,856 --> 10:19:08,276 [music] staring at exactly 30 days of 12714 10:19:05,276 --> 10:19:08,276 oxygen. 12715 10:19:08,800 --> 10:19:13,120 Nvidia's only lifeline was a strategic 12716 10:19:11,436 --> 10:19:15,276 contract with the Japanese [music] giant 12717 10:19:13,120 --> 10:19:18,400 Seagga to build the graphics engine for 12718 10:19:15,276 --> 10:19:21,680 the Sega Saturn. But Jensen was trapped 12719 10:19:18,400 --> 10:19:23,840 in a moral and business dilemma. 12720 10:19:21,680 --> 10:19:26,400 He knew that if they continued building 12721 10:19:23,840 --> 10:19:29,436 the chip for Sega using Nvidia's flawed 12722 10:19:26,400 --> 10:19:32,240 quad technology, Sega would lose the 12723 10:19:29,436 --> 10:19:35,436 console war to Sony's PlayStation and 12724 10:19:32,240 --> 10:19:38,400 Nvidia would eventually perish anyway. 12725 10:19:35,436 --> 10:19:40,160 In an act of intellectual honesty, or as 12726 10:19:38,400 --> 10:19:41,436 many at the time called corporate 12727 10:19:40,160 --> 10:19:43,916 suicide, [music] 12728 10:19:41,436 --> 10:19:47,200 Jensen flew to Japan. [clears throat] He 12729 10:19:43,916 --> 10:19:50,080 sat across from Shy Chiro Inimiri, the 12730 10:19:47,200 --> 10:19:53,200 CEO of Sega, and told him the brutal 12731 10:19:50,080 --> 10:19:56,160 truth. Our technology is on the wrong 12732 10:19:53,200 --> 10:19:57,596 path. If we finish this project, you 12733 10:19:56,160 --> 10:19:59,680 will produce [music] an inferior 12734 10:19:57,596 --> 10:20:02,560 product. 12735 10:19:59,680 --> 10:20:04,960 Jensen asked for the impossible. He 12736 10:20:02,560 --> 10:20:07,436 asked Sega to terminate the contract, 12737 10:20:04,960 --> 10:20:10,480 but to pay the remaining $5 million 12738 10:20:07,436 --> 10:20:12,640 anyway. If you don't pay us, Jensen 12739 10:20:10,480 --> 10:20:14,880 pleaded. [music] Nvidia will cease to 12740 10:20:12,640 --> 10:20:18,560 exist tomorrow. 12741 10:20:14,880 --> 10:20:21,120 To the astonishment of the tech world 12742 10:20:18,560 --> 10:20:25,756 agreed. He didn't pay for a working 12743 10:20:21,120 --> 10:20:28,640 chip. He paid for Jensen's integrity. 12744 10:20:25,756 --> 10:20:31,120 That $5 million was the most expensive 12745 10:20:28,640 --> 10:20:33,916 oxygen in history. 12746 10:20:31,120 --> 10:20:36,320 To make it last, Jensen had to fire half 12747 10:20:33,916 --> 10:20:38,160 of his workforce. These weren't just 12748 10:20:36,320 --> 10:20:40,960 employees. They were friends who had 12749 10:20:38,160 --> 10:20:43,040 shared the Denny's dream. This trauma 12750 10:20:40,960 --> 10:20:46,240 institutionalized a permanent state of 12751 10:20:43,040 --> 10:20:49,040 emergency at Nvidia. 12752 10:20:46,240 --> 10:20:52,800 With the remaining team, Jensen funneled 12753 10:20:49,040 --> 10:20:55,120 every scent into the Reval 128. 12754 10:20:52,800 --> 10:20:58,000 They abandoned quads and embraced 12755 10:20:55,120 --> 10:21:02,560 Microsoft's triangles with a vengeance. 12756 10:20:58,000 --> 10:21:05,520 When it launched in 1997, the Reva 128 12757 10:21:02,560 --> 10:21:07,276 was 400% faster than anything else on 12758 10:21:05,520 --> 10:21:10,400 the market. 12759 10:21:07,276 --> 10:21:13,360 It was a dive catch of epic proportions. 12760 10:21:10,400 --> 10:21:16,400 Nvidia was no longer just a survivor. It 12761 10:21:13,360 --> 10:21:19,096 had become a hunter. 12762 10:21:16,400 --> 10:21:21,360 But as Jensen looked at the horizon, he 12763 10:21:19,096 --> 10:21:26,916 [music] saw 70 rivals waiting to kill 12764 10:21:21,360 --> 10:21:26,916 him. The war was only beginning. 12765 10:21:31,916 --> 10:21:37,756 The success of the Reval 128 was a dive 12766 10:21:35,200 --> 10:21:40,240 catch, but it placed Nvidia in the 12767 10:21:37,756 --> 10:21:43,756 middle of a slaughterhouse. 12768 10:21:40,240 --> 10:21:46,000 By 1997, there were over 70 companies 12769 10:21:43,756 --> 10:21:47,520 fighting for the soul of the 3D graphics 12770 10:21:46,000 --> 10:21:49,520 market. 12771 10:21:47,520 --> 10:21:52,800 It was a commodity war where price 12772 10:21:49,520 --> 10:21:55,040 cutting was the only weapon for most. 12773 10:21:52,800 --> 10:21:57,040 Jensen Huang realized that if Nvidia 12774 10:21:55,040 --> 10:21:58,800 played by the industry's rules, [music] 12775 10:21:57,040 --> 10:22:00,880 they would eventually be ground into 12776 10:21:58,800 --> 10:22:04,240 dust. 12777 10:22:00,880 --> 10:22:06,160 He decided to break the laws of time. 12778 10:22:04,240 --> 10:22:09,520 The industry standard for developing a 12779 10:22:06,160 --> 10:22:12,720 new chip was 18 to 24 months. Following 12780 10:22:09,520 --> 10:22:15,040 the steady beat of Moore's law, Jensen 12781 10:22:12,720 --> 10:22:18,080 gathered his engineers and imposed a 12782 10:22:15,040 --> 10:22:20,800 suicidal mandate. Nvidia would release a 12783 10:22:18,080 --> 10:22:24,480 brand new groundbreaking architecture 12784 10:22:20,800 --> 10:22:26,480 every 6 months. 12785 10:22:24,480 --> 10:22:28,000 It was a strategy of relentless 12786 10:22:26,480 --> 10:22:31,436 execution. 12787 10:22:28,000 --> 10:22:34,080 By the time a competitor like 3dfx or S3 12788 10:22:31,436 --> 10:22:37,360 could react to one Nvidia [music] chip, 12789 10:22:34,080 --> 10:22:39,360 Jensen had already launched two more. 12790 10:22:37,360 --> 10:22:42,080 This forced the competition into a 12791 10:22:39,360 --> 10:22:44,960 permanent state of obsolescence. 12792 10:22:42,080 --> 10:22:47,360 To achieve this, Nvidia had to reinvent 12793 10:22:44,960 --> 10:22:49,916 its internal engineering, running 12794 10:22:47,360 --> 10:22:52,000 multiple design teams in parallel, a 12795 10:22:49,916 --> 10:22:53,916 massive financial risk that pushed the 12796 10:22:52,000 --> 10:22:58,480 company to the edge of its operational 12797 10:22:53,916 --> 10:23:04,560 capacity. In 1999, the war reached its 12798 10:22:58,480 --> 10:23:07,200 climax. Nvidia released the GeForce 256. 12799 10:23:04,560 --> 10:23:09,436 Jensen didn't just market it as a faster 12800 10:23:07,200 --> 10:23:13,520 card. He coined a term that would 12801 10:23:09,436 --> 10:23:16,480 redefine computing history, the GPU, 12802 10:23:13,520 --> 10:23:19,520 graphics processing unit. This wasn't 12803 10:23:16,480 --> 10:23:21,200 just branding. Technically, the GeForce 12804 10:23:19,520 --> 10:23:23,120 256 12805 10:23:21,200 --> 10:23:25,120 moved the transformer and lighting 12806 10:23:23,120 --> 10:23:28,480 calculations, the most heavy 12807 10:23:25,120 --> 10:23:31,360 mathematical lifting of 3D off the CPU 12808 10:23:28,480 --> 10:23:33,840 and onto the chip itself. It was the 12809 10:23:31,360 --> 10:23:36,320 birth of a new era. 12810 10:23:33,840 --> 10:23:38,320 This performance leap was so massive 12811 10:23:36,320 --> 10:23:40,320 that Nvidia secured the prestigious 12812 10:23:38,320 --> 10:23:44,160 contract for the original Microsoft 12813 10:23:40,320 --> 10:23:46,720 Xbox, receiving a crucial $200 million 12814 10:23:44,160 --> 10:23:49,840 advance. 12815 10:23:46,720 --> 10:23:52,400 The 6-month cycle worked. By the early 12816 10:23:49,840 --> 10:23:56,720 2000s, the 70 competitors had been 12817 10:23:52,400 --> 10:23:59,596 reduced to just two, Nvidia and ATI. 12818 10:23:56,720 --> 10:24:01,916 In a final act of dominance, Nvidia 12819 10:23:59,596 --> 10:24:06,480 acquired the assets of its former idol 12820 10:24:01,916 --> 10:24:09,756 and arch rival 3dfx in 2000. 12821 10:24:06,480 --> 10:24:13,200 Jensen had cleared the board. He was the 12822 10:24:09,756 --> 10:24:15,840 undisputed king of gaming. But at the 12823 10:24:13,200 --> 10:24:17,596 very moment of his greatest triumph, he 12824 10:24:15,840 --> 10:24:20,320 began to look at the high performance 12825 10:24:17,596 --> 10:24:22,720 computing market. He realized that the 12826 10:24:20,320 --> 10:24:25,680 GPU's massive parallel math could do 12827 10:24:22,720 --> 10:24:28,720 more than just draw pixels. It could 12828 10:24:25,680 --> 10:24:32,240 solve the world's most complex problems. 12829 10:24:28,720 --> 10:24:36,520 The seeds of CUDA and the $10 billion 12830 10:24:32,240 --> 10:24:36,520 gamble were being planted. 12831 10:24:41,840 --> 10:24:48,240 By 2006, Nvidia was the undisputed king 12832 10:24:45,424 --> 10:24:50,400 [music] of the gaming world. But Jensen 12833 10:24:48,240 --> 10:24:52,560 Hang was restless. He [music] realized 12834 10:24:50,400 --> 10:24:54,480 that the same parallel processing power 12835 10:24:52,560 --> 10:24:56,720 that rendered pixels for World of 12836 10:24:54,480 --> 10:24:58,640 Warcraft could be used to solve the 12837 10:24:56,720 --> 10:25:00,320 world's most complex mathematical 12838 10:24:58,640 --> 10:25:03,108 problems. 12839 10:25:00,320 --> 10:25:06,000 He launched CUDA, compute unified 12840 10:25:03,108 --> 10:25:07,596 [music] device architecture. It was a 12841 10:25:06,000 --> 10:25:10,160 declaration of war against the 12842 10:25:07,596 --> 10:25:13,040 CPUcentric [music] world. 12843 10:25:10,160 --> 10:25:15,840 The goal was simple yet insane. 12844 10:25:13,040 --> 10:25:18,800 Transform every NVIDIA GPU into a 12845 10:25:15,840 --> 10:25:20,320 general purpose supercomput. 12846 10:25:18,800 --> 10:25:23,916 But this decision [music] came with a 12847 10:25:20,320 --> 10:25:26,880 staggering cost. Jensen mandated that 12848 10:25:23,916 --> 10:25:28,656 every single GPU Nvidia manufactured 12849 10:25:26,880 --> 10:25:31,120 from the high-end workstation cards 12850 10:25:28,656 --> 10:25:33,436 [music] to the cheapest laptop chips 12851 10:25:31,120 --> 10:25:36,880 must include the extra transistors and 12852 10:25:33,436 --> 10:25:40,480 hardware logic to support CUDA. [music] 12853 10:25:36,880 --> 10:25:42,640 Wall Street was horrified. 12854 10:25:40,480 --> 10:25:45,756 For nearly a decade, Nvidia [music] 12855 10:25:42,640 --> 10:25:49,040 spent billions, estimated at over 10 12856 10:25:45,756 --> 10:25:51,200 billion dollars in cumulative R&D on a 12857 10:25:49,040 --> 10:25:54,000 software platform that almost no one was 12858 10:25:51,200 --> 10:25:56,160 using. Profit margins, [music] which 12859 10:25:54,000 --> 10:25:59,596 once sat comfortably high, were 12860 10:25:56,160 --> 10:26:01,916 sacrificed at the altar of this vision. 12861 10:25:59,596 --> 10:26:05,120 Analysts mocked the strategy, [music] 12862 10:26:01,916 --> 10:26:07,596 calling it the bridge to nowhere. During 12863 10:26:05,120 --> 10:26:10,080 the 2008 [music] financial crisis, 12864 10:26:07,596 --> 10:26:12,400 Nvidia's market cap plummeted and the 12865 10:26:10,080 --> 10:26:14,564 company was once again staring into the 12866 10:26:12,400 --> 10:26:14,564 abyss. [music] 12867 10:26:14,640 --> 10:26:19,200 But Jensen wasn't just building 12868 10:26:16,320 --> 10:26:22,320 hardware. He was building a software 12869 10:26:19,200 --> 10:26:24,400 moat. He sent Nvidia engineers to 12870 10:26:22,320 --> 10:26:26,320 universities around the world, [music] 12871 10:26:24,400 --> 10:26:29,040 helping professors teach parallel 12872 10:26:26,320 --> 10:26:31,276 programming using CUDA. 12873 10:26:29,040 --> 10:26:33,840 He was seeding the ground. [music] 12874 10:26:31,276 --> 10:26:37,040 While competitors like Intel and AMD 12875 10:26:33,840 --> 10:26:39,756 focused on making faster chips, Jensen 12876 10:26:37,040 --> 10:26:42,160 was building [music] an entire language. 12877 10:26:39,756 --> 10:26:44,640 By the time a developer learned CUDA, 12878 10:26:42,160 --> 10:26:46,720 they were locked in. Switching to a 12879 10:26:44,640 --> 10:26:49,120 competitor wouldn't just mean buying a 12880 10:26:46,720 --> 10:26:52,560 new chip. It would mean rewriting 12881 10:26:49,120 --> 10:26:55,680 millions of lines of code. 12882 10:26:52,560 --> 10:26:58,320 Year after year, Jensen defended CUDA in 12883 10:26:55,680 --> 10:27:00,480 boardrooms and earning calls. He 12884 10:26:58,320 --> 10:27:02,800 practiced what he calls long-term 12885 10:27:00,480 --> 10:27:05,596 commitment to a vision, even when the 12886 10:27:02,800 --> 10:27:07,916 data didn't yet support it. He was 12887 10:27:05,596 --> 10:27:09,436 waiting for a killer app for accelerated 12888 10:27:07,916 --> 10:27:11,436 computing. 12889 10:27:09,436 --> 10:27:13,200 He didn't know what it would be. [music] 12890 10:27:11,436 --> 10:27:15,756 But he knew that as data grew 12891 10:27:13,200 --> 10:27:18,800 exponentially, the serial processing of 12892 10:27:15,756 --> 10:27:21,200 the CPU would eventually fail. 12893 10:27:18,800 --> 10:27:23,040 The silence of the Cuda winter was about 12894 10:27:21,200 --> 10:27:25,248 to be broken. 12895 10:27:23,040 --> 10:27:25,840 In a lab at the University of Toronto, 12896 10:27:25,248 --> 10:27:28,960 [music] 12897 10:27:25,840 --> 10:27:30,960 a PhD student named Alex Kresvki was 12898 10:27:28,960 --> 10:27:34,720 about to feed a neural network called 12899 10:27:30,960 --> 10:27:37,120 Alexet into those Nvidia GPUs. 12900 10:27:34,720 --> 10:27:40,240 The big bang of artificial intelligence 12901 10:27:37,120 --> 10:27:42,640 was seconds away, and Jensen Huang was 12902 10:27:40,240 --> 10:27:47,080 the only person on Earth who had already 12903 10:27:42,640 --> 10:27:47,080 built the engine to power it. 12904 10:27:52,560 --> 10:27:58,320 The year was 2012. While the world saw 12905 10:27:55,916 --> 10:28:00,560 just another academic competition, 12906 10:27:58,320 --> 10:28:03,200 Jensen Hang saw the spark that would 12907 10:28:00,560 --> 10:28:06,480 ignite a global revolution. 12908 10:28:03,200 --> 10:28:09,840 A neural network called AlexNet, powered 12909 10:28:06,480 --> 10:28:13,120 by NVIDIA GPUs, crushed the competition 12910 10:28:09,840 --> 10:28:15,680 in image recognition. It was the big 12911 10:28:13,120 --> 10:28:18,480 bang of deep learning. 12912 10:28:15,680 --> 10:28:21,680 Jensen didn't just celebrate, he pivoted 12913 10:28:18,480 --> 10:28:24,720 the entire company. He realized that the 12914 10:28:21,680 --> 10:28:26,820 $10 billion gamble on CUDA had finally 12915 10:28:24,720 --> 10:28:28,840 found its soul, artificial intelligence. 12916 10:28:26,820 --> 10:28:28,840 [music] 12917 10:28:28,960 --> 10:28:33,520 This pivot transformed Nvidia from a 12918 10:28:31,276 --> 10:28:35,596 graphics card company into the 12919 10:28:33,520 --> 10:28:38,608 foundational engine of the world's most 12920 10:28:35,596 --> 10:28:40,160 powerful data centers. 12921 10:28:38,608 --> 10:28:43,120 [music] Jensen's vision was no longer 12922 10:28:40,160 --> 10:28:45,120 about drawing pixels. It was about 12923 10:28:43,120 --> 10:28:47,596 generative AI. 12924 10:28:45,120 --> 10:28:49,436 By the time Chat GPT launched [music] in 12925 10:28:47,596 --> 10:28:52,160 late 2022, 12926 10:28:49,436 --> 10:28:54,000 Nvidia didn't just have a head start. 12927 10:28:52,160 --> 10:28:56,960 They were the only ones at the starting 12928 10:28:54,000 --> 10:28:58,640 line. 12929 10:28:56,960 --> 10:29:01,120 Jensen acted [music] with a speed that 12930 10:28:58,640 --> 10:29:03,680 terrified his competitors. He didn't 12931 10:29:01,120 --> 10:29:06,560 just wait for orders. He re-engineered 12932 10:29:03,680 --> 10:29:09,436 Nvidia's entire road map. 12933 10:29:06,560 --> 10:29:12,016 In 2016, he personally delivered the 12934 10:29:09,436 --> 10:29:14,560 first Nvidia DGX1, 12935 10:29:12,016 --> 10:29:17,360 [music] the world's first AI supercomput 12936 10:29:14,560 --> 10:29:19,276 in a box to a then small nonprofit 12937 10:29:17,360 --> 10:29:21,840 called OpenAI. 12938 10:29:19,276 --> 10:29:25,400 He was very clear, [music] this will 12939 10:29:21,840 --> 10:29:25,400 change the world. 12940 10:29:26,080 --> 10:29:29,436 Technically, this period was about 12941 10:29:27,916 --> 10:29:31,916 specialization. [music] 12942 10:29:29,436 --> 10:29:34,640 Nvidia began adding tensor cores to its 12943 10:29:31,916 --> 10:29:36,320 chips. These weren't for graphics. They 12944 10:29:34,640 --> 10:29:38,320 were designed specifically for the deep 12945 10:29:36,320 --> 10:29:40,000 learning math [music] that powers neural 12946 10:29:38,320 --> 10:29:41,916 networks. 12947 10:29:40,000 --> 10:29:44,480 Nvidia was no longer just making a 12948 10:29:41,916 --> 10:29:46,640 faster graphics card. It was building a 12949 10:29:44,480 --> 10:29:50,640 specialized [music] brain. 12950 10:29:46,640 --> 10:29:52,160 By 2017, the momentum was unstoppable. 12951 10:29:50,640 --> 10:29:54,800 Every major [music] tech giant was 12952 10:29:52,160 --> 10:29:56,800 building AI labs and they all had one 12953 10:29:54,800 --> 10:29:59,120 thing in common. They were built on 12954 10:29:56,800 --> 10:30:01,276 Nvidia's stack. 12955 10:29:59,120 --> 10:30:04,000 This was the era when the software mode 12956 10:30:01,276 --> 10:30:05,200 became a fortress. Thousands of 12957 10:30:04,000 --> 10:30:08,720 researchers were now writing [music] 12958 10:30:05,200 --> 10:30:10,560 their doctoral thesis on CUDA. 12959 10:30:08,720 --> 10:30:12,480 If a competitor wanted to challenge 12960 10:30:10,560 --> 10:30:14,880 Nvidia, they [music] wouldn't just need 12961 10:30:12,480 --> 10:30:17,520 a better chip. They would have to 12962 10:30:14,880 --> 10:30:18,960 convince the world's brightest minds to 12963 10:30:17,520 --> 10:30:20,960 forget everything [music] they had 12964 10:30:18,960 --> 10:30:23,412 learned. 12965 10:30:20,960 --> 10:30:26,320 But as the AI revolution took hold, 12966 10:30:23,412 --> 10:30:28,880 [music] an unexpected shadow emerged. A 12967 10:30:26,320 --> 10:30:30,480 new craze called Bitcoin and Ethereum 12968 10:30:28,880 --> 10:30:33,916 began to [music] consume Nvidia's 12969 10:30:30,480 --> 10:30:36,960 supply. To the world, Nvidia looked 12970 10:30:33,916 --> 10:30:38,240 invincible. But internally, Jensen was 12971 10:30:36,960 --> 10:30:40,400 wary. [music] 12972 10:30:38,240 --> 10:30:41,916 Jensen knew that every bubble eventually 12973 10:30:40,400 --> 10:30:44,240 bursts. 12974 10:30:41,916 --> 10:30:46,336 This period of explosive accidental 12975 10:30:44,240 --> 10:30:48,240 growth from crypto miners was creating 12976 10:30:46,336 --> 10:30:49,756 [music] a shadow over the company's true 12977 10:30:48,240 --> 10:30:51,916 mission, 12978 10:30:49,756 --> 10:30:54,800 setting the stage for a highstakes legal 12979 10:30:51,916 --> 10:30:56,720 battle over corporate transparency and a 12980 10:30:54,800 --> 10:31:00,144 financial storm that would test the very 12981 10:30:56,720 --> 10:31:00,144 foundations of his leadership. [music] 12982 10:31:04,400 --> 10:31:10,000 In 2018, Nvidia was riding a wave that 12983 10:31:07,840 --> 10:31:11,756 looked like a miracle but felt [music] 12984 10:31:10,000 --> 10:31:13,916 like a mirage. 12985 10:31:11,756 --> 10:31:15,808 The explosion of cryptocurrency mining 12986 10:31:13,916 --> 10:31:18,320 had created an insatiable hunger for 12987 10:31:15,808 --> 10:31:20,880 [music] GeForce cards. 12988 10:31:18,320 --> 10:31:23,200 To the outside world, Nvidia's revenue 12989 10:31:20,880 --> 10:31:25,596 was reaching historic heights. [music] 12990 10:31:23,200 --> 10:31:28,560 However, beneath the surface, a 12991 10:31:25,596 --> 10:31:30,240 dangerous ambiguity was growing. Jensen 12992 10:31:28,560 --> 10:31:32,840 Huang insisted that the growth was 12993 10:31:30,240 --> 10:31:35,596 driven by a gaming renaissance, but the 12994 10:31:32,840 --> 10:31:39,756 [music] reality was more volatile. The 12995 10:31:35,596 --> 10:31:42,160 mirage evaporated in [music] late 2018. 12996 10:31:39,756 --> 10:31:44,160 The crypto winter arrived and [music] 12997 10:31:42,160 --> 10:31:46,080 the demand for mining chips vanished 12998 10:31:44,160 --> 10:31:48,000 overnight. 12999 10:31:46,080 --> 10:31:49,916 Nvidia was left with a massive surplus 13000 10:31:48,000 --> 10:31:52,560 of inventory and [music] the market's 13001 10:31:49,916 --> 10:31:57,200 reaction was brutal. The company's stock 13002 10:31:52,560 --> 10:31:59,840 price plummeted by 28% in a single day. 13003 10:31:57,200 --> 10:32:03,756 The invincible architect of AI was 13004 10:31:59,840 --> 10:32:05,520 suddenly facing a crisis of credibility. 13005 10:32:03,756 --> 10:32:07,276 This financial collapse ignited a 13006 10:32:05,520 --> 10:32:09,120 highstakes legal battle that would 13007 10:32:07,276 --> 10:32:11,200 eventually reach the steps of the US 13008 10:32:09,120 --> 10:32:13,436 Supreme Court. 13009 10:32:11,200 --> 10:32:15,756 A group of institutional investors filed 13010 10:32:13,436 --> 10:32:17,680 a class action lawsuit [music] alleging 13011 10:32:15,756 --> 10:32:20,480 that Jensen Huang had deliberately 13012 10:32:17,680 --> 10:32:22,620 misled the market. The core of the case 13013 10:32:20,480 --> 10:32:24,080 rested on a single devastating word. 13014 10:32:22,620 --> 10:32:28,000 [music] 13015 10:32:24,080 --> 10:32:30,000 Cienta, the intent to deceive. 13016 10:32:28,000 --> 10:32:32,000 The accusation was sharp. [music] 13017 10:32:30,000 --> 10:32:34,240 Investors claimed that internal Nvidia 13018 10:32:32,000 --> 10:32:36,000 reports clearly showed over a billion 13019 10:32:34,240 --> 10:32:38,480 dollars in revenue attributed [music] to 13020 10:32:36,000 --> 10:32:40,000 gamers was actually coming from crypto 13021 10:32:38,480 --> 10:32:42,240 miners. 13022 10:32:40,000 --> 10:32:44,560 Jensen fought back, defending his 13023 10:32:42,240 --> 10:32:46,560 intellectual honesty and arguing that 13024 10:32:44,560 --> 10:32:47,520 the expert opinions used against him 13025 10:32:46,560 --> 10:32:49,680 were nothing [music] more than 13026 10:32:47,520 --> 10:32:52,000 speculation. 13027 10:32:49,680 --> 10:32:54,320 This battle known as petition number 13028 10:32:52,000 --> 10:32:56,400 23-970 [music] 13029 10:32:54,320 --> 10:32:59,120 became a landmark moment for Silicon 13030 10:32:56,400 --> 10:32:59,916 Valley, questioning how much a CEO must 13031 10:32:59,120 --> 10:33:01,840 disclose [music] 13032 10:32:59,916 --> 10:33:03,916 when their technology accidentally 13033 10:33:01,840 --> 10:33:06,160 conquers a market they didn't intend to 13034 10:33:03,916 --> 10:33:08,560 lead. 13035 10:33:06,160 --> 10:33:10,400 While lawyers argued in Washington, 13036 10:33:08,560 --> 10:33:13,200 Jensen was already looking past the 13037 10:33:10,400 --> 10:33:15,596 wreckage. He didn't let the legal storm 13038 10:33:13,200 --> 10:33:18,160 or the inventory crisis slowed down his 13039 10:33:15,596 --> 10:33:20,320 ultimate plan. He doubled down on the 13040 10:33:18,160 --> 10:33:22,960 data center, [music] acquiring Melanox 13041 10:33:20,320 --> 10:33:26,080 for $7 billion to control the highways 13042 10:33:22,960 --> 10:33:27,756 between his chips. He was preparing for 13043 10:33:26,080 --> 10:33:30,400 a world where AI [music] wouldn't just 13044 10:33:27,756 --> 10:33:33,360 be a research project, but the operating 13045 10:33:30,400 --> 10:33:36,080 system of the entire [music] planet. 13046 10:33:33,360 --> 10:33:38,560 The storm of 2018 had been a warning. 13047 10:33:36,080 --> 10:33:42,276 The era of generative AI was about to 13048 10:33:38,560 --> 10:33:42,276 provide the [music] answer. 13049 10:33:46,000 --> 10:33:50,880 By 2022, 13050 10:33:47,916 --> 10:33:53,040 the world had changed. The launch of 13051 10:33:50,880 --> 10:33:55,916 Chat GPT signaled the arrival of the 13052 10:33:53,040 --> 10:33:59,200 generative AI era, and Nvidia was the 13053 10:33:55,916 --> 10:34:01,360 only company prepared to power it. 13054 10:33:59,200 --> 10:34:04,240 But as Jensen Huang stood on the brink 13055 10:34:01,360 --> 10:34:07,436 of total market dominance, a new wall 13056 10:34:04,240 --> 10:34:10,400 was built, not by a competitor, but by 13057 10:34:07,436 --> 10:34:11,840 the US government. Washington imposed 13058 10:34:10,400 --> 10:34:15,200 strict export controls [music] on 13059 10:34:11,840 --> 10:34:18,240 high-end AI chips. For Nvidia, the 13060 10:34:15,200 --> 10:34:20,160 stakes were astronomical. 13061 10:34:18,240 --> 10:34:22,080 According to the geographical revenue 13062 10:34:20,160 --> 10:34:25,520 data, [music] China accounted for 13063 10:34:22,080 --> 10:34:28,160 approximately 20% to 25% of the 13064 10:34:25,520 --> 10:34:30,560 company's total business. 13065 10:34:28,160 --> 10:34:32,968 Overnight, Jensen had to navigate a 13066 10:34:30,560 --> 10:34:34,640 geopolitical minefield, redesigning 13067 10:34:32,968 --> 10:34:36,720 [music] chips specifically to comply 13068 10:34:34,640 --> 10:34:38,864 with regulations while trying to keep 13069 10:34:36,720 --> 10:34:41,120 his most important market from slipping 13070 10:34:38,864 --> 10:34:43,360 [music] away. 13071 10:34:41,120 --> 10:34:45,360 Jensen's answer to the geopolitical and 13072 10:34:43,360 --> 10:34:46,880 technical pressure was the Blackwall 13073 10:34:45,360 --> 10:34:49,344 architecture. 13074 10:34:46,880 --> 10:34:50,000 If the H100 was a spark, Blackwell 13075 10:34:49,344 --> 10:34:54,080 [music] 13076 10:34:50,000 --> 10:34:55,896 was a sun. Packing an incredible 208 13077 10:34:54,080 --> 10:34:57,756 billion transistors, it delivered 13078 10:34:55,896 --> 10:35:01,596 [music] up to 30 times the performance 13079 10:34:57,756 --> 10:35:03,520 of its predecessor for certain AI tasks. 13080 10:35:01,596 --> 10:35:06,240 But Blackwell represented a deeper 13081 10:35:03,520 --> 10:35:09,048 strategic shift. Nvidia was no longer 13082 10:35:06,240 --> 10:35:09,048 just a chipmaker. [music] 13083 10:35:09,200 --> 10:35:13,680 Jensen was now building entire AI 13084 10:35:12,080 --> 10:35:15,840 factories. 13085 10:35:13,680 --> 10:35:18,240 By integrating Melanox's networking 13086 10:35:15,840 --> 10:35:20,128 technology, he controlled the highways 13087 10:35:18,240 --> 10:35:21,916 that allowed thousands of chips to talk 13088 10:35:20,128 --> 10:35:24,880 [music] to each other as if they were a 13089 10:35:21,916 --> 10:35:27,120 single giant brain. 13090 10:35:24,880 --> 10:35:29,040 This system on a cluster approach meant 13091 10:35:27,120 --> 10:35:31,520 that even if a competitor produced a 13092 10:35:29,040 --> 10:35:33,120 faster individual chip, they couldn't 13093 10:35:31,520 --> 10:35:36,160 compete with the sheer efficiency of the 13094 10:35:33,120 --> 10:35:38,800 Nvidia ecosystem. 13095 10:35:36,160 --> 10:35:42,000 The financial results were staggering. 13096 10:35:38,800 --> 10:35:46,000 By early 2024, Nvidia's data center 13097 10:35:42,000 --> 10:35:50,640 revenue had surged to over $47 billion, 13098 10:35:46,000 --> 10:35:53,520 a 217% increase in a single year. The 13099 10:35:50,640 --> 10:35:54,960 company was operating with 78.4% 13100 10:35:53,520 --> 10:35:56,800 gross margins. [music] 13101 10:35:54,960 --> 10:35:59,040 Profit levels usually reserved for 13102 10:35:56,800 --> 10:36:01,120 software giants, not hardware 13103 10:35:59,040 --> 10:36:04,800 manufacturers. 13104 10:36:01,120 --> 10:36:08,080 On June 18th, 2024, Nvidia became the 13105 10:36:04,800 --> 10:36:10,960 most valuable company on the planet. 13106 10:36:08,080 --> 10:36:14,160 Yet, even as he stood at the summit, 13107 10:36:10,960 --> 10:36:16,960 Jensen refused to relax. He looked the 13108 10:36:14,160 --> 10:36:19,680 60-year history of semiconductors, the 13109 10:36:16,960 --> 10:36:22,400 rise and fall of Intel, the cycles of 13110 10:36:19,680 --> 10:36:24,560 Samsung and TI, and he knew that being 13111 10:36:22,400 --> 10:36:27,916 on top was the most dangerous place to 13112 10:36:24,560 --> 10:36:31,200 be. His next challenge wouldn't just be 13113 10:36:27,916 --> 10:36:34,916 about chips. It would be about giving AI 13114 10:36:31,200 --> 10:36:34,916 a physical body. 13115 10:36:38,720 --> 10:36:43,840 In 2024, Jensen Huang had already 13116 10:36:41,596 --> 10:36:45,040 conquered the digital world, but his 13117 10:36:43,840 --> 10:36:48,320 eyes were fixed on [music] a new 13118 10:36:45,040 --> 10:36:50,240 frontier, the physical one. He declared 13119 10:36:48,320 --> 10:36:52,800 that the next wave of AI would be 13120 10:36:50,240 --> 10:36:55,120 physical AI. Intelligence that doesn't 13121 10:36:52,800 --> 10:36:58,480 just process text or images, [music] 13122 10:36:55,120 --> 10:37:00,720 but understands the laws of physics. 13123 10:36:58,480 --> 10:37:03,756 Everything that moves from autonomous 13124 10:37:00,720 --> 10:37:06,880 cars to humanoid robots would eventually 13125 10:37:03,756 --> 10:37:09,276 be powered by an Nvidia brain. 13126 10:37:06,880 --> 10:37:13,040 This identifies it as the third pillar 13127 10:37:09,276 --> 10:37:16,000 of Nvidia's future. To win this race, 13128 10:37:13,040 --> 10:37:18,080 Jensen isn't just building chips. He is 13129 10:37:16,000 --> 10:37:20,240 building the omniverse. 13130 10:37:18,080 --> 10:37:22,000 This is a digital world where robots are 13131 10:37:20,240 --> 10:37:24,800 trained millions [music] of times in a 13132 10:37:22,000 --> 10:37:27,360 virtual simulation before they ever step 13133 10:37:24,800 --> 10:37:30,160 into a real factory. 13134 10:37:27,360 --> 10:37:32,240 By the time a robot starts its job, it 13135 10:37:30,160 --> 10:37:35,360 has already lived a thousand lifetimes 13136 10:37:32,240 --> 10:37:37,916 of experience. Jensen's strategy is a 13137 10:37:35,360 --> 10:37:40,080 total vertical integration. He [music] 13138 10:37:37,916 --> 10:37:42,320 is transforming Nvidia into a provider 13139 10:37:40,080 --> 10:37:44,480 of AI factories. 13140 10:37:42,320 --> 10:37:46,852 He believes that in the future, every 13141 10:37:44,480 --> 10:37:49,040 company will have two factories, one 13142 10:37:46,852 --> 10:37:50,640 [music] that produces physical goods and 13143 10:37:49,040 --> 10:37:52,320 a digital one that produces 13144 10:37:50,640 --> 10:37:54,400 intelligence. 13145 10:37:52,320 --> 10:37:56,480 With the Melanox networking, high-speed 13146 10:37:54,400 --> 10:37:58,960 highways, and [music] the CUDA software 13147 10:37:56,480 --> 10:38:00,560 fortress, Jensen has ensured that the 13148 10:37:58,960 --> 10:38:03,040 entire infrastructure [music] of this 13149 10:38:00,560 --> 10:38:06,480 new industrial revolution runs on 13150 10:38:03,040 --> 10:38:08,320 Nvidia. When asked about his legacy, 13151 10:38:06,480 --> 10:38:11,360 Jensen [music] doesn't talk about stock 13152 10:38:08,320 --> 10:38:13,708 prices or trillions of dollars. He talks 13153 10:38:11,360 --> 10:38:15,756 about material sciences and scientific 13154 10:38:13,708 --> 10:38:17,840 [music] discovery. 13155 10:38:15,756 --> 10:38:20,560 He believes AI will give humans 13156 10:38:17,840 --> 10:38:23,276 superpowers, helping us solve climate 13157 10:38:20,560 --> 10:38:25,520 change, cure diseases, and handle the 13158 10:38:23,276 --> 10:38:28,480 dangerous and mundane tasks so we can 13159 10:38:25,520 --> 10:38:31,480 focus on what truly makes us human, 13160 10:38:28,480 --> 10:38:31,480 curiosity. 13161 10:38:34,080 --> 10:38:38,400 By 2025, 13162 10:38:36,080 --> 10:38:40,160 the world had entered a state of compute 13163 10:38:38,400 --> 10:38:43,360 geopolitics. 13164 10:38:40,160 --> 10:38:45,916 Nvidia was no longer just a company. It 13165 10:38:43,360 --> 10:38:49,120 had become a strategic resource similar 13166 10:38:45,916 --> 10:38:51,756 to oil or grain. The launch of the 13167 10:38:49,120 --> 10:38:54,080 Blackwell B200 hadn't [music] just met 13168 10:38:51,756 --> 10:38:57,680 demand. It had ignited a global 13169 10:38:54,080 --> 10:39:00,720 scramble. Nations like Japan, France, 13170 10:38:57,680 --> 10:39:03,276 and the UAE began building sovereign AI 13171 10:39:00,720 --> 10:39:04,880 clouds. Realizing that depending on a 13172 10:39:03,276 --> 10:39:06,720 few Silicon Valley giants for 13173 10:39:04,880 --> 10:39:08,800 intelligence [music] was a national 13174 10:39:06,720 --> 10:39:12,160 security risk. 13175 10:39:08,800 --> 10:39:15,916 But as 2025 progressed, a new whisper 13176 10:39:12,160 --> 10:39:18,880 began to haunt the industry. The wall. 13177 10:39:15,916 --> 10:39:21,756 For years, AI progress relied on scaling 13178 10:39:18,880 --> 10:39:24,000 laws. The idea that more data and more 13179 10:39:21,756 --> 10:39:27,916 GPUs would inevitably lead to more 13180 10:39:24,000 --> 10:39:30,640 intelligence. However, in 2026, the 13181 10:39:27,916 --> 10:39:33,276 returns are starting to diminish. Data 13182 10:39:30,640 --> 10:39:35,276 centers are becoming so massive, they 13183 10:39:33,276 --> 10:39:37,756 require their own dedicated nuclear 13184 10:39:35,276 --> 10:39:41,200 power plants. and the lowhanging fruit 13185 10:39:37,756 --> 10:39:43,436 of internet data has been exhausted. 13186 10:39:41,200 --> 10:39:46,160 Jensen's response to the wall is 13187 10:39:43,436 --> 10:39:48,240 typically defiant. He pivoted the 13188 10:39:46,160 --> 10:39:52,160 industry towards synthetic data and 13189 10:39:48,240 --> 10:39:54,640 reasoning models. In 2026, Nvidia's 13190 10:39:52,160 --> 10:39:58,880 focus has shifted from simply training 13191 10:39:54,640 --> 10:40:01,200 AI to inference at scale. The goal is no 13192 10:39:58,880 --> 10:40:03,120 longer just to build a model that knows 13193 10:40:01,200 --> 10:40:05,120 everything, [music] but to build a 13194 10:40:03,120 --> 10:40:07,120 system that thinks through a problem for 13195 10:40:05,120 --> 10:40:09,680 days, if necessary, using [music] 13196 10:40:07,120 --> 10:40:12,000 massive clusters of GPUs to reach a 13197 10:40:09,680 --> 10:40:15,200 breakthrough. 13198 10:40:12,000 --> 10:40:18,400 The competition in 2026 has never been 13199 10:40:15,200 --> 10:40:20,880 fiercer. Nvidia's biggest customers, 13200 10:40:18,400 --> 10:40:23,040 Amazon, Google, and Microsoft, have 13201 10:40:20,880 --> 10:40:24,960 become its most dangerous rivals, 13202 10:40:23,040 --> 10:40:28,880 pouring billions into their own custom 13203 10:40:24,960 --> 10:40:30,960 AI chips to escape the NVIDIA attacks. 13204 10:40:28,880 --> 10:40:34,080 Yet, the software mode remains 13205 10:40:30,960 --> 10:40:36,800 unreached. While others build chips, 13206 10:40:34,080 --> 10:40:39,520 Jensen is building the entire ecosystem, 13207 10:40:36,800 --> 10:40:41,120 the networking, the libraries, and the 13208 10:40:39,520 --> 10:40:43,916 pre-trained models that make a 13209 10:40:41,120 --> 10:40:47,276 competitor's hardware feel like a relic 13210 10:40:43,916 --> 10:40:50,000 before it even leaves the factory. 13211 10:40:47,276 --> 10:40:51,596 In this era, Jensen Huang has become one 13212 10:40:50,000 --> 10:40:54,160 of the world's most influential 13213 10:40:51,596 --> 10:40:55,596 diplomat. [music] He navigates a world 13214 10:40:54,160 --> 10:40:57,916 where the power grid is the new 13215 10:40:55,596 --> 10:40:59,840 bottleneck and where a single shipment 13216 10:40:57,916 --> 10:41:02,240 of chips can determine the economic 13217 10:40:59,840 --> 10:41:05,120 future of a country. 13218 10:41:02,240 --> 10:41:08,240 The trillion dollar question of 2026 is 13219 10:41:05,120 --> 10:41:10,320 no longer if AI will change the world, 13220 10:41:08,240 --> 10:41:13,640 but who will own the infrastructure of 13221 10:41:10,320 --> 10:41:13,640 that change. 13222 10:41:16,960 --> 10:41:21,436 The story of Nvidia is often told as a 13223 10:41:19,360 --> 10:41:24,400 series of lucky breaks or inevitable 13224 10:41:21,436 --> 10:41:26,720 triumphs. But as we look at the empire 13225 10:41:24,400 --> 10:41:29,520 Jensen Hang [music] has built, the 13226 10:41:26,720 --> 10:41:31,680 reality is far more deliberate and far 13227 10:41:29,520 --> 10:41:33,360 more precarious. 13228 10:41:31,680 --> 10:41:35,200 In 2026, [music] 13229 10:41:33,360 --> 10:41:37,200 the company stands at the center of the 13230 10:41:35,200 --> 10:41:40,720 greatest industrial shift in human 13231 10:41:37,200 --> 10:41:43,756 history. Yet for Jensen, the valuation 13232 10:41:40,720 --> 10:41:46,800 of three, four, or 5 trillion is a 13233 10:41:43,756 --> 10:41:48,720 lagging indicator. The true metric is 13234 10:41:46,800 --> 10:41:50,720 the oxygen. 13235 10:41:48,720 --> 10:41:52,560 Throughout his journey, from the dish 13236 10:41:50,720 --> 10:41:55,276 pits of Denny's to the halls of the 13237 10:41:52,560 --> 10:41:56,880 Supreme Court, Jensen has maintained a 13238 10:41:55,276 --> 10:41:58,640 philosophy of intellectual [music] 13239 10:41:56,880 --> 10:42:01,200 honesty. 13240 10:41:58,640 --> 10:42:03,916 He admits when the technology is wrong. 13241 10:42:01,200 --> 10:42:05,680 He pivots when the market shifts. And he 13242 10:42:03,916 --> 10:42:08,400 invests billions when the world [music] 13243 10:42:05,680 --> 10:42:10,160 calls him a fall. He has turned a 13244 10:42:08,400 --> 10:42:12,800 semiconductor company into a 13245 10:42:10,160 --> 10:42:15,916 geopolitical superpower, a software 13246 10:42:12,800 --> 10:42:18,240 fortress, and the primary architect of a 13247 10:42:15,916 --> 10:42:19,916 new form of life. 13248 10:42:18,240 --> 10:42:22,080 Critics ask if Nvidia [music] is a 13249 10:42:19,916 --> 10:42:24,400 bubble waiting to burst, or if the 13250 10:42:22,080 --> 10:42:26,880 scaling laws of AI will eventually hit a 13251 10:42:24,400 --> 10:42:28,480 dead end. But Jensen doesn't [music] 13252 10:42:26,880 --> 10:42:31,276 operate on the timeline of a stock 13253 10:42:28,480 --> 10:42:34,080 market cycle. He operates on the 13254 10:42:31,276 --> 10:42:36,640 timeline of human evolution. 13255 10:42:34,080 --> 10:42:38,320 He isn't just [music] selling chips. He 13256 10:42:36,640 --> 10:42:41,040 is selling the marginal cost of 13257 10:42:38,320 --> 10:42:42,720 intelligence, making the most valuable 13258 10:42:41,040 --> 10:42:45,520 resource in [music] the universe so 13259 10:42:42,720 --> 10:42:49,120 abundant that it changes the very 13260 10:42:45,520 --> 10:42:50,800 definition of what is possible. 13261 10:42:49,120 --> 10:42:52,480 Jensen often says that he wakes [music] 13262 10:42:50,800 --> 10:42:54,800 up every morning with the same feeling 13263 10:42:52,480 --> 10:42:56,400 he had in 1993. 13264 10:42:54,800 --> 10:42:59,200 the feeling that the company [music] is 13265 10:42:56,400 --> 10:43:00,960 going out of business. It is this 13266 10:42:59,200 --> 10:43:03,040 productive paranoia [music] that 13267 10:43:00,960 --> 10:43:05,520 prevents the cyclical trap that claim 13268 10:43:03,040 --> 10:43:07,200 the giants of the past. 13269 10:43:05,520 --> 10:43:09,916 He doesn't want to be the king of a 13270 10:43:07,200 --> 10:43:12,560 legacy. He wants to be the architect of 13271 10:43:09,916 --> 10:43:16,000 a future that hasn't even been [music] 13272 10:43:12,560 --> 10:43:19,436 imagined yet. 13273 10:43:16,000 --> 10:43:21,916 Run, don't walk. Either you are running 13274 10:43:19,436 --> 10:43:25,596 for food or you are running from being 13275 10:43:21,916 --> 10:43:30,756 food. In the era of the digital brain, 13276 10:43:25,596 --> 10:43:30,756 the race has only just [music] begun. 13277 10:44:57,040 --> 10:45:01,916 At the edge of the world, in a country 13278 10:44:59,276 --> 10:45:04,320 with more sheep than people, one of the 13279 10:45:01,916 --> 10:45:07,596 most powerful men in Silicon Valley 13280 10:45:04,320 --> 10:45:11,680 built an escape hatch. Not a vacation 13281 10:45:07,596 --> 10:45:14,480 home, not a tax shelter, a contingency 13282 10:45:11,680 --> 10:45:18,080 plan. 13283 10:45:14,480 --> 10:45:20,320 In 2011, a billionaire quietly secured 13284 10:45:18,080 --> 10:45:23,200 citizenship in New Zealand after 13285 10:45:20,320 --> 10:45:25,756 spending just days in the country. A 13286 10:45:23,200 --> 10:45:27,436 legal backdoor, a geopolitical [music] 13287 10:45:25,756 --> 10:45:29,360 lifeboat 13288 10:45:27,436 --> 10:45:32,320 deep in the rugged terrain of New 13289 10:45:29,360 --> 10:45:36,320 Zealand's South Island, Peter Teal owns 13290 10:45:32,320 --> 10:45:37,916 a vast private estate, remote, secluded, 13291 10:45:36,320 --> 10:45:39,916 and [music] far from the centers of 13292 10:45:37,916 --> 10:45:41,732 power. 13293 10:45:39,916 --> 10:45:44,720 While most billionaires buy yachts 13294 10:45:41,732 --> 10:45:47,680 [music] or private islands feel secured 13295 10:45:44,720 --> 10:45:49,520 something more strategic, New Zealand 13296 10:45:47,680 --> 10:45:51,916 citizenship [music] 13297 10:45:49,520 --> 10:45:55,120 and a vast estate in one of the most 13298 10:45:51,916 --> 10:45:56,480 remote democracies on Earth. The 13299 10:45:55,120 --> 10:45:59,520 purchase price for [music] this 13300 10:45:56,480 --> 10:46:02,960 geopolitical insurance policy. 13301 10:45:59,520 --> 10:46:05,680 In 2011, Theel obtained New Zealand 13302 10:46:02,960 --> 10:46:07,928 citizenship after spending just 12 days 13303 10:46:05,680 --> 10:46:09,040 in the country over the previous 2 13304 10:46:07,928 --> 10:46:11,436 [music] years. 13305 10:46:09,040 --> 10:46:14,756 a process that normally requires years 13306 10:46:11,436 --> 10:46:14,756 of residency. 13307 10:46:14,880 --> 10:46:20,080 The investment that secured this [music] 13308 10:46:16,720 --> 10:46:22,240 exceptional pathway, approximately $7 13309 10:46:20,080 --> 10:46:25,120 million in [music] local assets and 13310 10:46:22,240 --> 10:46:28,320 business investments. 13311 10:46:25,120 --> 10:46:32,080 The centerpiece, a 477 13312 10:46:28,320 --> 10:46:36,400 acre estate near Lake Wanaka, purchased 13313 10:46:32,080 --> 10:46:38,880 for 13.5 million New Zealand, about $10 13314 10:46:36,400 --> 10:46:41,276 million. 13315 10:46:38,880 --> 10:46:43,360 When New Zealand media exposed the deal 13316 10:46:41,276 --> 10:46:45,916 in 2017, [music] 13317 10:46:43,360 --> 10:46:47,596 it sparked a national scandal. 13318 10:46:45,916 --> 10:46:49,200 >> Hi, Benedict. Nice to talk to you again. 13319 10:46:47,596 --> 10:46:51,120 So, when we last spoke, you told us that 13320 10:46:49,200 --> 10:46:53,200 Peter Teal was granted citizenship after 13321 10:46:51,120 --> 10:46:56,880 having only visited New Zealand [music] 13322 10:46:53,200 --> 10:46:59,120 four times for an unknown number of days 13323 10:46:56,880 --> 10:47:01,120 because the documents had that 13324 10:46:59,120 --> 10:47:03,436 information redacted. Right. 13325 10:47:01,120 --> 10:47:06,240 >> Politicians called it citizenship for 13326 10:47:03,436 --> 10:47:08,240 sale. Opposition leaders demanded 13327 10:47:06,240 --> 10:47:10,480 investigations, 13328 10:47:08,240 --> 10:47:13,680 but Theel had already achieved his 13329 10:47:10,480 --> 10:47:15,436 objective, a legal escape hatch in the 13330 10:47:13,680 --> 10:47:17,120 world's most politically stable 13331 10:47:15,436 --> 10:47:20,000 democracy, 13332 10:47:17,120 --> 10:47:23,756 a geopolitical insurance policy that 13333 10:47:20,000 --> 10:47:25,876 money [music] can buy. 13334 10:47:23,756 --> 10:47:28,000 Why would a man who helped build the 13335 10:47:25,876 --> 10:47:31,040 [music] digital future prepare for the 13336 10:47:28,000 --> 10:47:34,160 collapse of the physical one? What does 13337 10:47:31,040 --> 10:47:38,000 he see [music] that others don't? Yes, 13338 10:47:34,160 --> 10:47:40,400 it's the uh 1 Thessalonians 5:3, the uh 13339 10:47:38,000 --> 10:47:43,916 the the slogan of the Antichrist is 13340 10:47:40,400 --> 10:47:45,916 peace and safety. And so, which is 13341 10:47:43,916 --> 10:47:47,756 nothing wrong with peace and safety, but 13342 10:47:45,916 --> 10:47:49,840 uh you have to sort of imagine that it 13343 10:47:47,756 --> 10:47:51,916 resonates very differently in a world 13344 10:47:49,840 --> 10:47:53,200 where the stakes are so absolute, where 13345 10:47:51,916 --> 10:47:56,240 the stakes are so extreme, [music] where 13346 10:47:53,200 --> 10:47:58,160 the you know the alternative to peace 13347 10:47:56,240 --> 10:48:00,480 and safety is, [music] 13348 10:47:58,160 --> 10:48:02,320 you know, Armageddon and the destruction 13349 10:48:00,480 --> 10:48:04,720 of all things. 13350 10:48:02,320 --> 10:48:08,160 He is one of the most polarizing figures 13351 10:48:04,720 --> 10:48:11,120 in Silicon Valley. To some, a visionary 13352 10:48:08,160 --> 10:48:13,840 genius who saw the future early. To 13353 10:48:11,120 --> 10:48:15,436 others, the shadow financier of 13354 10:48:13,840 --> 10:48:18,880 movements and candidates [music] who 13355 10:48:15,436 --> 10:48:22,800 challenge liberal democratic norms. 13356 10:48:18,880 --> 10:48:25,276 This is not fear. This is strategy. 13357 10:48:22,800 --> 10:48:28,960 For decades, Peter Theel has made the 13358 10:48:25,276 --> 10:48:32,000 same bet over and over again. Bet 13359 10:48:28,960 --> 10:48:36,640 against consensus. better against the 13360 10:48:32,000 --> 10:48:39,200 crowd, bet against the system itself. 13361 10:48:36,640 --> 10:48:41,756 To understand why he built a fortress at 13362 10:48:39,200 --> 10:48:43,824 the end of the earth, we have to go back 13363 10:48:41,756 --> 10:48:45,120 to a childhood of constant displacement. 13364 10:48:43,824 --> 10:48:47,436 [music] 13365 10:48:45,120 --> 10:48:49,596 To a chessboard where consensus meant 13366 10:48:47,436 --> 10:48:52,320 nothing, to a company that [music] tried 13367 10:48:49,596 --> 10:48:56,200 to replace money and another that 13368 10:48:52,320 --> 10:48:56,200 learned to see everything. 13369 10:48:56,400 --> 10:49:00,960 But the estate is [music] more than a 13370 10:48:58,400 --> 10:49:04,960 luxury retreat. It is a fortress 13371 10:49:00,960 --> 10:49:07,596 designed for civilizational uncertainty. 13372 10:49:04,960 --> 10:49:10,240 Off-grid power systems, advanced 13373 10:49:07,596 --> 10:49:13,120 security infrastructure, multiple 13374 10:49:10,240 --> 10:49:15,520 evacuation routes through the mountains. 13375 10:49:13,120 --> 10:49:17,436 Not built for comfort, built for 13376 10:49:15,520 --> 10:49:19,192 continuity. 13377 10:49:17,436 --> 10:49:21,680 While the world debates progress, 13378 10:49:19,192 --> 10:49:23,756 [music] Peter Theel is preparing for a 13379 10:49:21,680 --> 10:49:26,480 different possibility. 13380 10:49:23,756 --> 10:49:29,960 Not how to build the future, how to 13381 10:49:26,480 --> 10:49:29,960 survive it. 13382 10:49:31,360 --> 10:49:38,000 The architect of dissident 13383 10:49:34,960 --> 10:49:42,480 total estimated value of the contingency 13384 10:49:38,000 --> 10:49:45,840 infrastructure 20 to $30 million. 13385 10:49:42,480 --> 10:49:48,080 Not for lifestyle, not for prestige, but 13386 10:49:45,840 --> 10:49:50,400 for the day the system he helped build 13387 10:49:48,080 --> 10:49:52,480 no longer holds. 13388 10:49:50,400 --> 10:49:55,276 He didn't build this because he panics 13389 10:49:52,480 --> 10:49:57,916 easily. He built it because he has 13390 10:49:55,276 --> 10:50:00,456 always believed that the crowd is wrong 13391 10:49:57,916 --> 10:50:03,276 and the future belongs to those willing 13392 10:50:00,456 --> 10:50:06,400 [music] to stand apart from it. Every 13393 10:50:03,276 --> 10:50:08,640 fortress begins as an idea and Peter 13394 10:50:06,400 --> 10:50:13,400 Theel has been building intellectual 13395 10:50:08,640 --> 10:50:13,400 fortresses since he was a child. 13396 10:50:17,360 --> 10:50:22,640 Before he was a billionaire, before he 13397 10:50:19,840 --> 10:50:24,160 funded political outsiders, before he 13398 10:50:22,640 --> 10:50:27,200 built machines that could see 13399 10:50:24,160 --> 10:50:29,120 everything, he was a boy who never 13400 10:50:27,200 --> 10:50:31,840 stayed in one place long enough to 13401 10:50:29,120 --> 10:50:33,840 believe the world made sense. 13402 10:50:31,840 --> 10:50:37,276 So, he searched for a world where the 13403 10:50:33,840 --> 10:50:39,120 rules didn't change. He found it on a 13404 10:50:37,276 --> 10:50:41,520 chess board. 13405 10:50:39,120 --> 10:50:43,520 To understand Peter Theel, you must 13406 10:50:41,520 --> 10:50:46,160 understand what it means to be a 13407 10:50:43,520 --> 10:50:48,960 permanent [music] outsider. 13408 10:50:46,160 --> 10:50:51,360 Born in Frankfurt, West Germany, Peter 13409 10:50:48,960 --> 10:50:54,960 Theel spent part of his early childhood 13410 10:50:51,360 --> 10:50:57,276 in southwest Africa, now Namibia, before 13411 10:50:54,960 --> 10:51:00,640 growing up mainly in the United States 13412 10:50:57,276 --> 10:51:02,960 between Ohio and California. 13413 10:51:00,640 --> 10:51:06,240 Before he was a teenager, he had already 13414 10:51:02,960 --> 10:51:08,560 experienced life on multiple continents, 13415 10:51:06,240 --> 10:51:10,560 never staying long enough to feel fully 13416 10:51:08,560 --> 10:51:13,276 at home. 13417 10:51:10,560 --> 10:51:15,916 He didn't have a hometown. He didn't 13418 10:51:13,276 --> 10:51:19,120 have a tribe. [music] He only had his 13419 10:51:15,916 --> 10:51:21,360 own mind. And in that isolation, he 13420 10:51:19,120 --> 10:51:22,880 found a language that didn't require a 13421 10:51:21,360 --> 10:51:25,880 passport. 13422 10:51:22,880 --> 10:51:25,880 Chess. 13423 10:51:26,400 --> 10:51:29,840 For a child who changed continents 13424 10:51:28,560 --> 10:51:31,840 before he [music] could even make 13425 10:51:29,840 --> 10:51:35,840 friends, the outside world was 13426 10:51:31,840 --> 10:51:38,160 unpredictable noise. But the board, the 13427 10:51:35,840 --> 10:51:42,240 board was the only place where the rules 13428 10:51:38,160 --> 10:51:45,040 didn't change depending on the country. 13429 10:51:42,240 --> 10:51:47,436 His 13430 10:51:45,040 --> 10:51:49,840 father, an engineer trained in a culture 13431 10:51:47,436 --> 10:51:52,240 of precision and systems thinking, 13432 10:51:49,840 --> 10:51:55,680 passed on a belief that reality could be 13433 10:51:52,240 --> 10:51:58,240 understood and optimized. 13434 10:51:55,680 --> 10:52:01,276 While other children sought to fit in, 13435 10:51:58,240 --> 10:52:04,080 Peter sought the edge. He learned that 13436 10:52:01,276 --> 10:52:05,756 the consensus of the crowd is usually a 13437 10:52:04,080 --> 10:52:08,320 distraction. 13438 10:52:05,756 --> 10:52:10,960 If everyone is running toward the ball, 13439 10:52:08,320 --> 10:52:12,720 you run toward where the ball is going 13440 10:52:10,960 --> 10:52:14,880 to be. 13441 10:52:12,720 --> 10:52:16,640 Chess is the ultimate antidote to 13442 10:52:14,880 --> 10:52:18,640 consensus. 13443 10:52:16,640 --> 10:52:21,360 In a crowd, you can hide behind a 13444 10:52:18,640 --> 10:52:22,480 popular opinion. In chess, you are 13445 10:52:21,360 --> 10:52:25,040 either right [music] 13446 10:52:22,480 --> 10:52:27,276 or you are dead. There is no middle 13447 10:52:25,040 --> 10:52:29,360 ground. There is no social construction 13448 10:52:27,276 --> 10:52:31,360 of the board. 13449 10:52:29,360 --> 10:52:34,000 He became a serious tournament chess 13450 10:52:31,360 --> 10:52:36,800 player drawn to a world where rules were 13451 10:52:34,000 --> 10:52:40,560 fixed, outcomes were earned, and 13452 10:52:36,800 --> 10:52:44,880 consensus meant [music] nothing. 13453 10:52:40,560 --> 10:52:47,200 Mid1 1980s Stanford University. 13454 10:52:44,880 --> 10:52:49,520 To the world this was the peak of 13455 10:52:47,200 --> 10:52:53,756 American meritocracy. 13456 10:52:49,520 --> 10:52:55,840 To Theel it was a factory of conformity. 13457 10:52:53,756 --> 10:52:58,240 While his classmates were debating how 13458 10:52:55,840 --> 10:53:00,480 to change the world through activism, 13459 10:52:58,240 --> 10:53:03,120 Theel was wondering why they all sounded 13460 10:53:00,480 --> 10:53:05,200 exactly the same. He saw the 13461 10:53:03,120 --> 10:53:07,360 multiculturalism movement not as 13462 10:53:05,200 --> 10:53:09,520 progress but as a new form of 13463 10:53:07,360 --> 10:53:12,160 fundamentalism. 13464 10:53:09,520 --> 10:53:15,200 Stanford in the late 1980s was ground 13465 10:53:12,160 --> 10:53:18,000 zero for America's culture wars, battles 13466 10:53:15,200 --> 10:53:21,040 over multiculturalism, speech, and the 13467 10:53:18,000 --> 10:53:23,360 purpose of higher education. 13468 10:53:21,040 --> 10:53:26,720 Field believed the university was 13469 10:53:23,360 --> 10:53:28,480 drifting toward ideological conformity, 13470 10:53:26,720 --> 10:53:31,916 that certain views were becoming 13471 10:53:28,480 --> 10:53:34,560 socially, if not formally, offlimits. 13472 10:53:31,916 --> 10:53:37,916 Here, his investment methodology was 13473 10:53:34,560 --> 10:53:41,840 born. Identify what the crowd considers 13474 10:53:37,916 --> 10:53:45,276 sacred and question it. 13475 10:53:41,840 --> 10:53:48,240 If everyone says identity diversity is 13476 10:53:45,276 --> 10:53:51,200 the most important thing, you argue that 13477 10:53:48,240 --> 10:53:53,276 intellectual diversity is the only thing 13478 10:53:51,200 --> 10:53:55,520 that matters. 13479 10:53:53,276 --> 10:53:58,720 He wasn't looking for friends. He was 13480 10:53:55,520 --> 10:54:01,596 looking to recruit others who like him 13481 10:53:58,720 --> 10:54:04,720 did not fear being hated. 13482 10:54:01,596 --> 10:54:07,276 He founded the Stanford Review. 13483 10:54:04,720 --> 10:54:09,360 The paper quickly became one of the most 13484 10:54:07,276 --> 10:54:10,560 controversial publications on campus, 13485 10:54:09,360 --> 10:54:13,360 [music] 13486 10:54:10,560 --> 10:54:17,200 attacking what field saw as intellectual 13487 10:54:13,360 --> 10:54:19,360 monoculture and political group think. 13488 10:54:17,200 --> 10:54:21,756 He saw that the smartest people in the 13489 10:54:19,360 --> 10:54:24,960 country were all competing for the same 13490 10:54:21,756 --> 10:54:26,720 narrow prizes, thinking the same narrow 13491 10:54:24,960 --> 10:54:28,880 thoughts. 13492 10:54:26,720 --> 10:54:32,480 He did what every top student [music] 13493 10:54:28,880 --> 10:54:35,276 does. He followed the track. After 13494 10:54:32,480 --> 10:54:38,160 Stanford Law, he secured a prestigious 13495 10:54:35,276 --> 10:54:40,148 federal appalate clerkship, the kind of 13496 10:54:38,160 --> 10:54:42,320 credential that opens every elite 13497 10:54:40,148 --> 10:54:44,560 [music] door in America. 13498 10:54:42,320 --> 10:54:47,040 After his clerkship, he joined Sullivan 13499 10:54:44,560 --> 10:54:48,880 and Cromwell in New York, one of the 13500 10:54:47,040 --> 10:54:51,680 most elite law [music] firms in the 13501 10:54:48,880 --> 10:54:54,480 world. On paper, he had reached the 13502 10:54:51,680 --> 10:54:57,680 summit. Wall Street was his great 13503 10:54:54,480 --> 10:54:59,916 negative epiphany. 13504 10:54:57,680 --> 10:55:02,080 But from his perspective, the brightest 13505 10:54:59,916 --> 10:55:04,160 graduates in America were locked in 13506 10:55:02,080 --> 10:55:07,116 brutal competition for careers they 13507 10:55:04,160 --> 10:55:09,520 didn't even seem to want. 13508 10:55:07,116 --> 10:55:12,160 It looked like Renee Gerard's theory 13509 10:55:09,520 --> 10:55:14,560 made flesh, a system where everyone 13510 10:55:12,160 --> 10:55:17,680 desired the same prize simply because 13511 10:55:14,560 --> 10:55:20,480 everyone else did. Wall Street looked to 13512 10:55:17,680 --> 10:55:23,520 Theo like a laboratory of mimemetic 13513 10:55:20,480 --> 10:55:26,080 rivalry. He realized that if he won that 13514 10:55:23,520 --> 10:55:29,360 race, his prize would be becoming the 13515 10:55:26,080 --> 10:55:32,640 man in the office next door. A copy of a 13516 10:55:29,360 --> 10:55:35,436 copy. The day he lost the opportunity to 13517 10:55:32,640 --> 10:55:38,960 clerk for the US Supreme Court wasn't a 13518 10:55:35,436 --> 10:55:42,240 defeat. It was his liberation. 13519 10:55:38,960 --> 10:55:44,880 He lasted less than a year. But Theo's 13520 10:55:42,240 --> 10:55:47,680 first venture after leaving law was a 13521 10:55:44,880 --> 10:55:49,596 humbling lesson in failure. A lesson 13522 10:55:47,680 --> 10:55:52,480 that would shape everything that came 13523 10:55:49,596 --> 10:55:55,756 after. 13524 10:55:52,480 --> 10:55:58,148 In 1996, he launched Theel Capital 13525 10:55:55,756 --> 10:55:58,148 Management, [music] 13526 10:55:58,480 --> 10:56:04,640 a hedge fund focused on currency trading 13527 10:56:01,436 --> 10:56:07,436 and macroeconomic derivatives. 13528 10:56:04,640 --> 10:56:09,436 The strategy was to make big directional 13529 10:56:07,436 --> 10:56:11,916 bets on [music] interest rates, 13530 10:56:09,436 --> 10:56:15,116 inflation expectations, and foreign 13531 10:56:11,916 --> 10:56:18,960 exchange movements. Initial capital 13532 10:56:15,116 --> 10:56:21,040 raised $1 million mostly from Stanford 13533 10:56:18,960 --> 10:56:25,800 connections who believed in the chess 13534 10:56:21,040 --> 10:56:25,800 prodigy turned lawyer turned financia. 13535 10:56:26,640 --> 10:56:32,000 The result was spectacular failure. 13536 10:56:29,756 --> 10:56:34,772 Within the first year, the fund had lost 13537 10:56:32,000 --> 10:56:37,596 significant capital. Industry estimates 13538 10:56:34,772 --> 10:56:40,880 [music] suggest losses between 30 and 13539 10:56:37,596 --> 10:56:44,000 40% of the initial investment pool. 13540 10:56:40,880 --> 10:56:47,200 Investors fled. Some demanded their 13541 10:56:44,000 --> 10:56:49,596 remaining money back immediately. 13542 10:56:47,200 --> 10:56:51,436 The reputation among finance 13543 10:56:49,596 --> 10:56:53,040 professionals, the people he [music] had 13544 10:56:51,436 --> 10:56:56,720 walked away from at Sullivan and 13545 10:56:53,040 --> 10:57:00,000 Cromwell, took a serious hit. 13546 10:56:56,720 --> 10:57:03,276 He was no longer the Stanford genius. He 13547 10:57:00,000 --> 10:57:05,756 was just another failed trader. 13548 10:57:03,276 --> 10:57:08,240 But this failure taught him the most 13549 10:57:05,756 --> 10:57:11,276 important lesson of his career. 13550 10:57:08,240 --> 10:57:13,680 Competition is for losers. 13551 10:57:11,276 --> 10:57:16,400 Do not compete in crowded markets where 13552 10:57:13,680 --> 10:57:18,080 everyone is making the same trades with 13553 10:57:16,400 --> 10:57:20,080 the same information [music] and the 13554 10:57:18,080 --> 10:57:22,480 same tools. 13555 10:57:20,080 --> 10:57:25,680 Wall Street was full of extremely smart 13556 10:57:22,480 --> 10:57:28,080 people doing the same macro trades, 13557 10:57:25,680 --> 10:57:31,200 reading the same economic reports, 13558 10:57:28,080 --> 10:57:33,596 betting on the same currency movements. 13559 10:57:31,200 --> 10:57:35,436 It was a zero someum game played by 13560 10:57:33,596 --> 10:57:38,160 thousands of nearly identical [music] 13561 10:57:35,436 --> 10:57:40,320 players. 13562 10:57:38,160 --> 10:57:43,116 He needed to find a space where the 13563 10:57:40,320 --> 10:57:45,436 rules [music] were still being written, 13564 10:57:43,116 --> 10:57:48,800 where being first mattered more than 13565 10:57:45,436 --> 10:57:51,040 being best, where a monopoly position 13566 10:57:48,800 --> 10:57:53,360 was still available. 13567 10:57:51,040 --> 10:57:55,756 He needed technology. 13568 10:57:53,360 --> 10:57:59,520 And from the ashes of the capital 13569 10:57:55,756 --> 10:58:02,080 management, a new philosophy was born. 13570 10:57:59,520 --> 10:58:04,400 If you want to create lasting value, you 13571 10:58:02,080 --> 10:58:07,840 have to build a monopoly. 13572 10:58:04,400 --> 10:58:11,960 This became his investing mantra and it 13573 10:58:07,840 --> 10:58:11,960 would make him billions. 13574 10:58:13,520 --> 10:58:18,480 Theel walked away from the firm and went 13575 10:58:15,596 --> 10:58:21,360 back to California not to start a tech 13576 10:58:18,480 --> 10:58:24,960 empire but to try trading then to launch 13577 10:58:21,360 --> 10:58:27,200 a hedge fund. It failed. The system he 13578 10:58:24,960 --> 10:58:31,116 had rejected did not welcome him back as 13579 10:58:27,200 --> 10:58:33,116 a prodigy. It treated him like a nobody. 13580 10:58:31,116 --> 10:58:37,040 That failure would become the last 13581 10:58:33,116 --> 10:58:39,436 lesson before his real beginning. But he 13582 10:58:37,040 --> 10:58:42,080 learned something. If you play the 13583 10:58:39,436 --> 10:58:44,080 system game as everyone else, you've 13584 10:58:42,080 --> 10:58:46,080 already lost. 13585 10:58:44,080 --> 10:58:51,720 The chess master was done with the 13586 10:58:46,080 --> 10:58:51,720 board. He was ready to build his own. 13587 10:58:56,720 --> 10:59:00,720 So this is an ATM. What we're going to 13588 10:58:58,720 --> 10:59:02,560 do is transform the traditional banking 13589 10:59:00,720 --> 10:59:04,112 industry. 13590 10:59:02,560 --> 10:59:06,000 >> I do not fit the picture of a banker. 13591 10:59:04,112 --> 10:59:07,680 [music] 13592 10:59:06,000 --> 10:59:09,756 >> X.com. This is Julie. 13593 10:59:07,680 --> 10:59:12,320 >> Raising $50 million is a matter of 13594 10:59:09,756 --> 10:59:14,560 making a series of phone calls and the 13595 10:59:12,320 --> 10:59:15,916 money is there. 13596 10:59:14,560 --> 10:59:18,800 >> I've sunk the [music] great majority of 13597 10:59:15,916 --> 10:59:20,400 of my net worth into X.com, which is the 13598 10:59:18,800 --> 10:59:21,840 new banking and mutual [music] funds 13599 10:59:20,400 --> 10:59:25,680 company on the internet that I've 13600 10:59:21,840 --> 10:59:28,480 started. December 1998, 13601 10:59:25,680 --> 10:59:31,756 Peter Theel co-founds a company called 13602 10:59:28,480 --> 10:59:34,960 Conffinity with Max Levchin, a brilliant 13603 10:59:31,756 --> 10:59:38,480 Ukrainianborn programmer, and Luke Nosk, 13604 10:59:34,960 --> 10:59:41,680 a fellow Stanford review illuminous. 13605 10:59:38,480 --> 10:59:43,680 Initial funding, $300,000 scraped 13606 10:59:41,680 --> 10:59:45,840 together from friends, family, and 13607 10:59:43,680 --> 10:59:47,916 fellow libertarian true believers from 13608 10:59:45,840 --> 10:59:50,320 the Stamford [music] days. 13609 10:59:47,916 --> 10:59:54,240 The original product idea, digital 13610 10:59:50,320 --> 10:59:56,640 wallets on Palm Pilot handheld devices. 13611 10:59:54,240 --> 10:59:58,160 The vision was that people would beam 13612 10:59:56,640 --> 11:00:01,840 money to each other using [music] 13613 10:59:58,160 --> 11:00:04,560 infrared ports on the Palm Pilots 13614 11:00:01,840 --> 11:00:06,080 in coffee shops, at restaurants, 13615 11:00:04,560 --> 11:00:10,436 persontoerson, 13616 11:00:06,080 --> 11:00:10,436 bypassing banks entirely. 13617 11:00:10,720 --> 11:00:18,720 Total users after 6 months of operation, 13618 11:00:14,320 --> 11:00:20,960 12 people. literally 12. 13619 11:00:18,720 --> 11:00:23,680 Most of them were employees and their 13620 11:00:20,960 --> 11:00:27,276 friends testing the system. It was a 13621 11:00:23,680 --> 11:00:30,240 complete and utter flop. The technology 13622 11:00:27,276 --> 11:00:35,200 worked, but nobody cared. Nobody wanted 13623 11:00:30,240 --> 11:00:38,560 it. March 2000, Confinity pivots hard 13624 11:00:35,200 --> 11:00:40,880 and launches a new feature, email-based 13625 11:00:38,560 --> 11:00:44,080 money transfers. 13626 11:00:40,880 --> 11:00:46,080 You send money to any email address. The 13627 11:00:44,080 --> 11:00:48,080 recipient gets a [music] notification, 13628 11:00:46,080 --> 11:00:51,596 creates an account, and the money is 13629 11:00:48,080 --> 11:00:55,436 there. Simple, instant, revolutionary. 13630 11:00:51,596 --> 11:00:58,320 The name of this new service, PayPal. 13631 11:00:55,436 --> 11:01:00,880 Within weeks, user growth exploded at a 13632 11:00:58,320 --> 11:01:02,560 rate nobody had ever seen in financial 13633 11:01:00,880 --> 11:01:07,116 services. 13634 11:01:02,560 --> 11:01:12,640 Month one, 10,000 users. Month three, 13635 11:01:07,116 --> 11:01:17,136 100,000 users. Month 6, 1 million users. 13636 11:01:12,640 --> 11:01:17,136 Month 12, 5 million users. [music] 13637 11:01:17,596 --> 11:01:22,240 This was the fastest user adoption rate 13638 11:01:20,000 --> 11:01:25,200 in the entire history of financial 13639 11:01:22,240 --> 11:01:27,680 services. Faster than credit cards, 13640 11:01:25,200 --> 11:01:29,680 faster than checking accounts, faster 13641 11:01:27,680 --> 11:01:32,240 than anything. 13642 11:01:29,680 --> 11:01:35,276 But here is what most people do not know 13643 11:01:32,240 --> 11:01:38,640 about PayPal's growth. Here is the 13644 11:01:35,276 --> 11:01:41,756 secret that the mythology leaves out. 13645 11:01:38,640 --> 11:01:46,160 PayPal's explosive user acquisition was 13646 11:01:41,756 --> 11:01:48,524 not organic. It was not word of mouth. 13647 11:01:46,160 --> 11:01:50,544 It was not viral in the natural sense. 13648 11:01:48,524 --> 11:01:50,544 [music] 13649 11:01:51,040 --> 11:01:57,276 They literally bought their users with 13650 11:01:53,360 --> 11:02:00,080 cash. The strategy was elegantly simple 13651 11:01:57,276 --> 11:02:03,200 and brutally expensive. 13652 11:02:00,080 --> 11:02:06,320 Sign up for a PayPal account, get $10 13653 11:02:03,200 --> 11:02:09,916 deposited instantly. Refer a friend who 13654 11:02:06,320 --> 11:02:14,080 signs up gets another $10. Your friend 13655 11:02:09,916 --> 11:02:17,344 also gets $10. Cost per acquisition 20 13656 11:02:14,080 --> 11:02:21,040 to $40 per user depending on how many 13657 11:02:17,344 --> 11:02:24,320 [music] referrals each user generated. 13658 11:02:21,040 --> 11:02:27,200 Monthly cash burn rate at peak growth 10 13659 11:02:24,320 --> 11:02:30,480 to 12 million 13660 11:02:27,200 --> 11:02:32,640 just vanishing into user acquisition. 13661 11:02:30,480 --> 11:02:36,400 By late 2000, PayPal [music] was 13662 11:02:32,640 --> 11:02:38,300 spending 60 to 70 million annually just 13663 11:02:36,400 --> 11:02:40,080 to buy users with cash incentives. 13664 11:02:38,300 --> 11:02:42,160 [music] 13665 11:02:40,080 --> 11:02:44,800 They were hemorrhaging money at a 13666 11:02:42,160 --> 11:02:45,680 terrifying rate. Investors were 13667 11:02:44,800 --> 11:02:50,080 panicking. [music] 13668 11:02:45,680 --> 11:02:52,560 Board members were demanding answers. 13669 11:02:50,080 --> 11:02:56,160 How long can you sustain spending $10 13670 11:02:52,560 --> 11:02:59,200 million a month buying users? [music] 13671 11:02:56,160 --> 11:03:02,240 But Theel had done the mathematics. He 13672 11:02:59,200 --> 11:03:05,200 had run the numbers obsessively. 13673 11:03:02,240 --> 11:03:08,240 Each acquired user was worth $100 to 13674 11:03:05,200 --> 11:03:11,680 $200 in [music] lifetime transaction fee 13675 11:03:08,240 --> 11:03:14,984 revenue through the PayPal network. They 13676 11:03:11,680 --> 11:03:15,916 were buying $100 bills for $20 bills. 13677 11:03:14,984 --> 11:03:18,960 [music] 13678 11:03:15,916 --> 11:03:21,116 It was either genius or insanity 13679 11:03:18,960 --> 11:03:24,800 depending on whether the math actually 13680 11:03:21,116 --> 11:03:27,200 worked. The believed it would work. He 13681 11:03:24,800 --> 11:03:30,640 bet everything on it. [music] But there 13682 11:03:27,200 --> 11:03:34,080 was a problem. a major problem. Another 13683 11:03:30,640 --> 11:03:37,680 company was doing the exact same thing. 13684 11:03:34,080 --> 11:03:41,116 X.com, a finance company founded by Elon 13685 11:03:37,680 --> 11:03:43,116 Musk with money from his Zip 2 exit and 13686 11:03:41,116 --> 11:03:47,436 a vision for online banking that was 13687 11:03:43,116 --> 11:03:51,040 nearly identical [music] to PayPal's. 13688 11:03:47,436 --> 11:03:53,628 Two companies, same idea, same market, 13689 11:03:51,040 --> 11:03:57,040 both burning massive amounts of cash at 13690 11:03:53,628 --> 11:03:59,200 [music] completely unsustainable rates. 13691 11:03:57,040 --> 11:04:03,200 Total funding raised between both 13692 11:03:59,200 --> 11:04:06,560 companies over $100 million. 13693 11:04:03,200 --> 11:04:08,000 Combined monthly cash burn rate over $20 13694 11:04:06,560 --> 11:04:10,400 million [music] 13695 11:04:08,000 --> 11:04:15,436 time until both companies simultaneously 13696 11:04:10,400 --> 11:04:18,240 ran out of money less than 6 months. 13697 11:04:15,436 --> 11:04:21,840 The merger was inevitable. 13698 11:04:18,240 --> 11:04:24,880 X.com and Confinity merged into a single 13699 11:04:21,840 --> 11:04:27,200 entity. The combined company kept the 13700 11:04:24,880 --> 11:04:30,960 PayPal name because users had already 13701 11:04:27,200 --> 11:04:33,520 adopted it. The brand had momentum. Elon 13702 11:04:30,960 --> 11:04:38,916 Musk became chief executive officer of 13703 11:04:33,520 --> 11:04:38,916 the merged company for 5 months. 13704 11:04:40,240 --> 11:04:46,480 October 2000. While Elon Musk was on his 13705 11:04:43,840 --> 11:04:49,200 honeymoon, the board of directors led by 13706 11:04:46,480 --> 11:04:52,400 Peter Theel and other Confinity founders 13707 11:04:49,200 --> 11:04:54,960 held an emergency meeting and voted Musk 13708 11:04:52,400 --> 11:04:57,680 out as CEO. 13709 11:04:54,960 --> 11:05:00,800 The official reason cited strategic 13710 11:04:57,680 --> 11:05:04,080 disagreements over technology platform. 13711 11:05:00,800 --> 11:05:07,040 Musk wanted to use Microsoft software. 13712 11:05:04,080 --> 11:05:10,640 The Confinity engineers believed in Unix 13713 11:05:07,040 --> 11:05:14,240 based systems. The actual reason Theel 13714 11:05:10,640 --> 11:05:17,840 wanted control, full control. This was 13715 11:05:14,240 --> 11:05:20,000 his company now. 13716 11:05:17,840 --> 11:05:22,720 Peter Theel became chief executive 13717 11:05:20,000 --> 11:05:25,116 officer of PayPal. Elon Musk [music] 13718 11:05:22,720 --> 11:05:29,596 remained a major shareholder, but his 13719 11:05:25,116 --> 11:05:32,480 operational control was finished. 13720 11:05:29,596 --> 11:05:34,880 The two men, both future billionaires, 13721 11:05:32,480 --> 11:05:39,084 both future power brokers, had their 13722 11:05:34,880 --> 11:05:41,680 first battle. feel one. At its core, 13723 11:05:39,084 --> 11:05:44,640 [music] PayPal ran on a simple idea that 13724 11:05:41,680 --> 11:05:47,200 turned into a powerful engine. 13725 11:05:44,640 --> 11:05:51,276 Every time money moved, PayPal took a 13726 11:05:47,200 --> 11:05:53,756 small cut, 2.9% plus 30 cents per 13727 11:05:51,276 --> 11:05:56,400 transaction. If that money crossed 13728 11:05:53,756 --> 11:05:58,880 borders, the fee climbed to between 2 13729 11:05:56,400 --> 11:06:01,040 1/2 and 4%. 13730 11:05:58,880 --> 11:06:02,960 Then there was the float. The cash 13731 11:06:01,040 --> 11:06:04,000 sitting in PayPal's accounts between 13732 11:06:02,960 --> 11:06:05,756 payments, [music] 13733 11:06:04,000 --> 11:06:09,360 quietly earning interest for the 13734 11:06:05,756 --> 11:06:11,116 company. Tiny slices repeated millions 13735 11:06:09,360 --> 11:06:14,240 of times. 13736 11:06:11,116 --> 11:06:18,000 By 2001, the numbers told the story of a 13737 11:06:14,240 --> 11:06:20,880 system coming to life. Every single day, 13738 11:06:18,000 --> 11:06:23,916 5 to8 million flowed through PayPal's 13739 11:06:20,880 --> 11:06:28,880 network. Each month, that translated 13740 11:06:23,916 --> 11:06:31,840 into 10 to$15 million in revenue. 13741 11:06:28,880 --> 11:06:34,400 But growth at this speed came at a cost. 13742 11:06:31,840 --> 11:06:37,276 Running the system, fighting fraud, 13743 11:06:34,400 --> 11:06:42,400 scaling infrastructure, acquiring users 13744 11:06:37,276 --> 11:06:44,720 was burning 20 to30 million every month. 13745 11:06:42,400 --> 11:06:47,116 The machine worked, it just wasn't 13746 11:06:44,720 --> 11:06:49,116 profitable yet. 13747 11:06:47,116 --> 11:06:51,680 Late 2000, 13748 11:06:49,116 --> 11:06:55,360 PayPal's data scientists discovered 13749 11:06:51,680 --> 11:06:57,756 something crucial. 70% of all PayPal 13750 11:06:55,360 --> 11:06:59,436 transactions were happening on eBay 13751 11:06:57,756 --> 11:07:01,680 auctions. 13752 11:06:59,436 --> 11:07:04,240 People buying and selling random items 13753 11:07:01,680 --> 11:07:07,680 on the internet's largest marketplace 13754 11:07:04,240 --> 11:07:10,000 were using PayPal to move money. The 13755 11:07:07,680 --> 11:07:13,360 strategic insight became immediately 13756 11:07:10,000 --> 11:07:17,520 clear. Make PayPal the only payment 13757 11:07:13,360 --> 11:07:19,596 method that eBay users trust completely. 13758 11:07:17,520 --> 11:07:21,520 Own that market, become [music] 13759 11:07:19,596 --> 11:07:24,160 indispensable. 13760 11:07:21,520 --> 11:07:26,480 The execution buyer protection 13761 11:07:24,160 --> 11:07:29,276 guarantees that eBay's own payment 13762 11:07:26,480 --> 11:07:31,916 system did not offer 13763 11:07:29,276 --> 11:07:35,800 instant payment transfers with no 7-day 13764 11:07:31,916 --> 11:07:35,800 check clearing period. 13765 11:07:36,240 --> 11:07:41,360 Fraud detection algorithms that were 13766 11:07:38,400 --> 11:07:44,240 better than credit card companies. Email 13767 11:07:41,360 --> 11:07:48,720 notifications for every transaction. 13768 11:07:44,240 --> 11:07:52,080 Simple, clean user interface. 13769 11:07:48,720 --> 11:07:55,840 By mid 2001, the strategy was working 13770 11:07:52,080 --> 11:07:58,560 beyond all projections. 50% of all eBay 13771 11:07:55,840 --> 11:08:02,240 auctions accepted PayPal as a payment 13772 11:07:58,560 --> 11:08:04,720 method. PayPal was processing $50 13773 11:08:02,240 --> 11:08:07,680 million daily in eBay related 13774 11:08:04,720 --> 11:08:12,880 transactions alone. And then eBay 13775 11:08:07,680 --> 11:08:14,960 noticed and eBay was not happy. 13776 11:08:12,880 --> 11:08:17,276 eBay launched their own competing 13777 11:08:14,960 --> 11:08:20,080 service called Billpoint and attempted 13778 11:08:17,276 --> 11:08:22,240 to kill PayPal through the marketplace. 13779 11:08:20,080 --> 11:08:25,276 They promoted Billoint in search 13780 11:08:22,240 --> 11:08:28,000 rankings. They penalized sellers who 13781 11:08:25,276 --> 11:08:31,116 only accepted PayPal. They made it 13782 11:08:28,000 --> 11:08:32,880 harder to display the PayPal logo. It 13783 11:08:31,116 --> 11:08:35,916 was war. 13784 11:08:32,880 --> 11:08:38,560 PayPal's response was total war. 13785 11:08:35,916 --> 11:08:41,116 Temporarily lower transaction fees to 13786 11:08:38,560 --> 11:08:43,276 undercut Bill. 13787 11:08:41,116 --> 11:08:46,480 Guarantee faster money transfers than 13788 11:08:43,276 --> 11:08:50,160 eBay could offer. Invest heavily in 13789 11:08:46,480 --> 11:08:53,200 superior $30 million deployed in 2001 13790 11:08:50,160 --> 11:08:55,756 fraud protection. Massive marketing 13791 11:08:53,200 --> 11:08:59,520 spending alone. 13792 11:08:55,756 --> 11:09:03,840 By early 2002, the war was over. PayPal 13793 11:08:59,520 --> 11:09:07,840 controlled 65% of eBay's payment market. 13794 11:09:03,840 --> 11:09:10,160 Bill point at barely 10%. 13795 11:09:07,840 --> 11:09:12,480 eBay executives looked at the numbers 13796 11:09:10,160 --> 11:09:17,840 and reached the conclusion, if you 13797 11:09:12,480 --> 11:09:22,000 cannot beat them, buy them. July 2002, 13798 11:09:17,840 --> 11:09:24,080 eBay acquires PayPal for $1.5 billion in 13799 11:09:22,000 --> 11:09:27,756 eBay stock. 13800 11:09:24,080 --> 11:09:30,240 Peter Theal owned approximately $3.7% of 13801 11:09:27,756 --> 11:09:33,840 PayPal at the time of the acquisition. 13802 11:09:30,240 --> 11:09:37,360 His equity stake was worth $55 million 13803 11:09:33,840 --> 11:09:39,840 in eBay stock. After taxes, he walked 13804 11:09:37,360 --> 11:09:43,756 away with approximately $40 million in 13805 11:09:39,840 --> 11:09:47,360 liquid wealth. At age 34, he had won his 13806 11:09:43,756 --> 11:09:49,360 first billion dollar game. 13807 11:09:47,360 --> 11:09:52,720 But the money was not the most valuable 13808 11:09:49,360 --> 11:09:56,720 thing he extracted from PayPal. The real 13809 11:09:52,720 --> 11:09:59,116 value was the network, the PayPal mafia, 13810 11:09:56,720 --> 11:10:03,040 the name they gave themselves. And it 13811 11:09:59,116 --> 11:10:05,916 was not ironic, it was descriptive. The 13812 11:10:03,040 --> 11:10:08,000 core team that Theel assembled at PayPal 13813 11:10:05,916 --> 11:10:11,200 would go on to create some of the most 13814 11:10:08,000 --> 11:10:15,200 valuable companies in human history. 13815 11:10:11,200 --> 11:10:17,200 Elon Musk, Tesla Market Cap, $650 13816 11:10:15,200 --> 11:10:22,048 billion. 13817 11:10:17,200 --> 11:10:24,480 SpaceX, estimated value, $150 billion. 13818 11:10:22,048 --> 11:10:28,000 [music] Reed Hoffman, LinkedIn, sold to 13819 11:10:24,480 --> 11:10:32,080 Microsoft for $26 billion. 13820 11:10:28,000 --> 11:10:36,880 Steve Chen, Chad Hurley, Jawed Kareem. 13821 11:10:32,080 --> 11:10:41,044 YouTube sold to Google for 1.65 billion, 13822 11:10:36,880 --> 11:10:42,000 now worth over 100 billion. 13823 11:10:41,044 --> 11:10:44,640 [music] 13824 11:10:42,000 --> 11:10:48,720 Jeremy Stoppleman and Russell Simmons, 13825 11:10:44,640 --> 11:10:51,276 Yelp, peaked at $3 billion market cap. 13826 11:10:48,720 --> 11:10:54,960 David Saxs, Yammer, sold [music] to 13827 11:10:51,276 --> 11:10:57,916 Microsoft for $1.2 billion. 13828 11:10:54,960 --> 11:11:02,160 later founded Craft Ventures. Max 13829 11:10:57,916 --> 11:11:07,276 Levchin, a firm $12 billion company. 13830 11:11:02,160 --> 11:11:10,080 Also co-founded Yelp. Keith Rabo, COO of 13831 11:11:07,276 --> 11:11:14,756 Square, partner at Founders Fund, 13832 11:11:10,080 --> 11:11:14,756 investor in dozens of unicorns. 13833 11:11:14,800 --> 11:11:21,520 Roloff Bofer, partner at Seoia Capital, 13834 11:11:18,720 --> 11:11:26,080 led investments in Instagram, YouTube, 13835 11:11:21,520 --> 11:11:29,116 Tumblr, MongoDB, Eventbrite. 13836 11:11:26,080 --> 11:11:31,040 Total value created by the PayPal mafia 13837 11:11:29,116 --> 11:11:34,560 across all their companies, 13838 11:11:31,040 --> 11:11:36,960 conservatively estimated at over $200 13839 11:11:34,560 --> 11:11:39,360 billion in combined market 13840 11:11:36,960 --> 11:11:41,520 capitalization. 13841 11:11:39,360 --> 11:11:43,360 Field's ownership stakes across this 13842 11:11:41,520 --> 11:11:46,560 extended network through direct 13843 11:11:43,360 --> 11:11:49,756 investments and fund positions estimated 13844 11:11:46,560 --> 11:11:51,756 at 2 to4 billion. 13845 11:11:49,756 --> 11:11:54,880 This was not just a company that got 13846 11:11:51,756 --> 11:11:57,756 acquired. This was the creation of the 13847 11:11:54,880 --> 11:12:01,160 most powerful business cartel in Silicon 13848 11:11:57,756 --> 11:12:01,160 Valley history. 13849 11:12:01,360 --> 11:12:06,880 But what made PayPal different was not 13850 11:12:03,916 --> 11:12:09,276 the technology. Not really. The 13851 11:12:06,880 --> 11:12:10,880 technology was impressive but not 13852 11:12:09,276 --> 11:12:12,960 miraculous. 13853 11:12:10,880 --> 11:12:15,756 What made PayPal different was the 13854 11:12:12,960 --> 11:12:17,596 culture, the religion of extreme 13855 11:12:15,756 --> 11:12:20,640 meritocracy. 13856 11:12:17,596 --> 11:12:22,560 Theo's hiring criteria were brutally 13857 11:12:20,640 --> 11:12:26,400 specific. 13858 11:12:22,560 --> 11:12:29,756 One, raw intelligence, high test scores, 13859 11:12:26,400 --> 11:12:31,680 ability to solve complex puzzles, proof 13860 11:12:29,756 --> 11:12:35,200 you could think better than everyone 13861 11:12:31,680 --> 11:12:38,240 else. Two, intensity. 13862 11:12:35,200 --> 11:12:39,680 Are you willing to work 100hour weeks? 13863 11:12:38,240 --> 11:12:41,436 Are [music] you willing to sacrifice 13864 11:12:39,680 --> 11:12:42,960 everything else in your life for the 13865 11:12:41,436 --> 11:12:46,640 mission? 13866 11:12:42,960 --> 11:12:49,436 Three, missionary zeal. Do you actually 13867 11:12:46,640 --> 11:12:52,160 believe we are changing the world or are 13868 11:12:49,436 --> 11:12:55,436 you here for a paycheck? 13869 11:12:52,160 --> 11:12:57,596 Four, loyalty to the tribe. Will you 13870 11:12:55,436 --> 11:13:00,960 protect the other members? Will you put 13871 11:12:57,596 --> 11:13:04,320 the group above yourself? 13872 11:13:00,960 --> 11:13:09,840 Average employee age at PayPal 25 years 13873 11:13:04,320 --> 11:13:12,160 old. Average work week 80 to 100 hours. 13874 11:13:09,840 --> 11:13:14,720 Office culture libertarian, 13875 11:13:12,160 --> 11:13:16,560 anti-regulation, contrarian, 13876 11:13:14,720 --> 11:13:18,640 anti-establishment. 13877 11:13:16,560 --> 11:13:21,116 They called themselves the mafia 13878 11:13:18,640 --> 11:13:24,680 specifically because loyalty mattered 13879 11:13:21,116 --> 11:13:24,680 more than credentials, 13880 11:13:25,916 --> 11:13:31,436 more than degrees, more than previous 13881 11:13:28,080 --> 11:13:34,320 experience. Theel's operating principle 13882 11:13:31,436 --> 11:13:36,640 stated explicitly and repeatedly, 13883 11:13:34,320 --> 11:13:38,320 talented people do not want to work with 13884 11:13:36,640 --> 11:13:42,160 people who [music] are less talented 13885 11:13:38,320 --> 11:13:44,480 than they are. So every new hire must be 13886 11:13:42,160 --> 11:13:47,720 more talented than the average current 13887 11:13:44,480 --> 11:13:50,560 employee. Otherwise, we are diluting the 13888 11:13:47,720 --> 11:13:53,916 [music] talent pool. This created a 13889 11:13:50,560 --> 11:13:56,892 self-reinforcing escalation, an arms 13890 11:13:53,916 --> 11:13:59,360 race of hiring. Every new person raised 13891 11:13:56,892 --> 11:14:02,880 [music] the bar. The standards became 13892 11:13:59,360 --> 11:14:06,080 higher and higher. Only the absolute 13893 11:14:02,880 --> 11:14:09,360 best could get in. And once you were in, 13894 11:14:06,080 --> 11:14:11,520 you were family. But here is what most 13895 11:14:09,360 --> 11:14:13,436 people forget about PayPal. [music] 13896 11:14:11,520 --> 11:14:16,480 Here is the original vision that got 13897 11:14:13,436 --> 11:14:18,400 erased from the mythology. PayPal was 13898 11:14:16,480 --> 11:14:21,436 supposed [music] to destroy the Federal 13899 11:14:18,400 --> 11:14:24,560 Reserve. It was supposed to undermine 13900 11:14:21,436 --> 11:14:26,960 state control of currency. That was the 13901 11:14:24,560 --> 11:14:28,400 actual mission. That was why Peter 13902 11:14:26,960 --> 11:14:32,400 Theel, the libertarian [music] 13903 11:14:28,400 --> 11:14:34,960 ideologue, cared so much. 13904 11:14:32,400 --> 11:14:37,840 The original vision laid out in Theo's 13905 11:14:34,960 --> 11:14:41,276 founding documents create a new digital 13906 11:14:37,840 --> 11:14:44,000 currency outside government control. 13907 11:14:41,276 --> 11:14:45,436 Enable true peer-to-peer transactions 13908 11:14:44,000 --> 11:14:47,040 globally [music] without state 13909 11:14:45,436 --> 11:14:48,960 intermediaries. 13910 11:14:47,040 --> 11:14:52,240 Undermine the state monopoly [music] on 13911 11:14:48,960 --> 11:14:54,800 money creation and management. 13912 11:14:52,240 --> 11:14:57,040 build the financial infrastructure for a 13913 11:14:54,800 --> 11:14:59,520 stateless society. 13914 11:14:57,040 --> 11:15:00,320 What actually happened? To become 13915 11:14:59,520 --> 11:15:02,960 mainstream, [music] 13916 11:15:00,320 --> 11:15:04,960 to actually scale, PayPal had to 13917 11:15:02,960 --> 11:15:07,276 compromise every single founding 13918 11:15:04,960 --> 11:15:10,240 principle. They had to integrate with 13919 11:15:07,276 --> 11:15:13,200 the traditional banking system, the 13920 11:15:10,240 --> 11:15:15,436 enemy. They had to comply with know your 13921 11:15:13,200 --> 11:15:16,960 customer and anti-moneyaundering 13922 11:15:15,436 --> 11:15:19,116 regulations, 13923 11:15:16,960 --> 11:15:20,960 government control. 13924 11:15:19,116 --> 11:15:23,680 They had to partner with credit card 13925 11:15:20,960 --> 11:15:26,480 companies. The old system they wanted to 13926 11:15:23,680 --> 11:15:30,000 destroy. They had to get licensed in 13927 11:15:26,480 --> 11:15:31,916 every single state. Regulatory capture. 13928 11:15:30,000 --> 11:15:34,800 They had to report suspicious 13929 11:15:31,916 --> 11:15:38,320 transactions to federal authorities. 13930 11:15:34,800 --> 11:15:41,680 Surveillance. By 2002, PayPal was 13931 11:15:38,320 --> 11:15:44,240 regulated exactly like a [music] bank. 13932 11:15:41,680 --> 11:15:46,880 Partnered with banks, dependent on banks 13933 11:15:44,240 --> 11:15:49,520 for all core functionalities. The 13934 11:15:46,880 --> 11:15:52,000 libertarian revolution had become just 13935 11:15:49,520 --> 11:15:54,320 another fintech company playing by the 13936 11:15:52,000 --> 11:15:56,640 government's rules. [music] 13937 11:15:54,320 --> 11:15:58,720 The learned the most important lesson of 13938 11:15:56,640 --> 11:16:00,240 his career from PayPal's failure to 13939 11:15:58,720 --> 11:16:03,116 achieve [music] its revolutionary 13940 11:16:00,240 --> 11:16:06,480 mission. You cannot disrupt the system 13941 11:16:03,116 --> 11:16:08,560 from inside the system. If you want to 13942 11:16:06,480 --> 11:16:10,320 change the rules, you cannot ask 13943 11:16:08,560 --> 11:16:13,276 permission from the people who wrote 13944 11:16:10,320 --> 11:16:19,000 them. This lesson would shape everything 13945 11:16:13,276 --> 11:16:19,000 he did next. Palanteer, Facebook, 13946 11:16:19,116 --> 11:16:25,200 his political investments, everything. 13947 11:16:23,200 --> 11:16:28,320 The PayPal acquisition [music] was not 13948 11:16:25,200 --> 11:16:31,116 an ending. It was a beginning, the start 13949 11:16:28,320 --> 11:16:32,800 of something much larger. The pattern 13950 11:16:31,116 --> 11:16:36,000 that emerged over the next 20 [music] 13951 11:16:32,800 --> 11:16:38,880 years. PayPal veterans leave and start 13952 11:16:36,000 --> 11:16:41,296 new companies in different sectors. 13953 11:16:38,880 --> 11:16:44,480 Theel invests early as angel investor 13954 11:16:41,296 --> 11:16:46,536 [music] or through founders fund. PayPal 13955 11:16:44,480 --> 11:16:48,960 mafia members join each other's boards 13956 11:16:46,536 --> 11:16:51,120 [music] of directors. Cross investment 13957 11:16:48,960 --> 11:16:53,756 between all their venture funds creates 13958 11:16:51,120 --> 11:16:55,916 [music] alignment. Preferential access 13959 11:16:53,756 --> 11:16:57,520 to deal flow because of network 13960 11:16:55,916 --> 11:16:58,880 relationships. 13961 11:16:57,520 --> 11:17:02,240 Shared intelligence [music] about 13962 11:16:58,880 --> 11:17:04,160 markets, technology, and opportunities. 13963 11:17:02,240 --> 11:17:07,680 Real examples of how the network 13964 11:17:04,160 --> 11:17:11,276 compounds. Reed Hoffman introduces Theel 13965 11:17:07,680 --> 11:17:15,276 to Mark Zuckerberg in 2004. 13966 11:17:11,276 --> 11:17:18,960 Theel invests $500,000 in Facebook, 13967 11:17:15,276 --> 11:17:21,200 eventually makes over $1 billion. 13968 11:17:18,960 --> 11:17:23,596 Roloff Botha [music] joins Sequoia 13969 11:17:21,200 --> 11:17:25,756 Capital and invests in multiple 13970 11:17:23,596 --> 11:17:28,400 Theelbacked companies, creating 13971 11:17:25,756 --> 11:17:30,960 reciprocal deal flows. [music] 13972 11:17:28,400 --> 11:17:33,436 David Saxs hosts high dollar fundraisers 13973 11:17:30,960 --> 11:17:38,200 for Theo's [music] political candidates, 13974 11:17:33,436 --> 11:17:38,200 mixing business and politics seamlessly. 13975 11:17:38,320 --> 11:17:44,480 Max Levchim provides seed capital for 13976 11:17:40,960 --> 11:17:46,480 Palanteer and serves as advisor lending 13977 11:17:44,480 --> 11:17:48,720 credibility. 13978 11:17:46,480 --> 11:17:49,360 This network effect multiplier is 13979 11:17:48,720 --> 11:17:53,756 precisely [music] 13980 11:17:49,360 --> 11:17:56,620 how Theel turned $55 million from PayPal 13981 11:17:53,756 --> 11:17:58,240 into over $5 billion in net worth today. 13982 11:17:56,620 --> 11:18:01,596 [music] 13983 11:17:58,240 --> 11:18:04,080 The PayPal mafia is not a cute nickname. 13984 11:18:01,596 --> 11:18:05,840 It is not a metaphor. It is the most 13985 11:18:04,080 --> 11:18:08,960 successful [music] organized business 13986 11:18:05,840 --> 11:18:11,116 cartel in Silicon Valley history. 13987 11:18:08,960 --> 11:18:13,436 A self-reinforcing [music] network of 13988 11:18:11,116 --> 11:18:15,680 wealth, power, and influence that has 13989 11:18:13,436 --> 11:18:19,276 shaped the entire technology industry 13990 11:18:15,680 --> 11:18:24,596 for two decades. And Peter Theal sits at 13991 11:18:19,276 --> 11:18:24,596 the center of it all. The Godfather. 13992 11:18:29,916 --> 11:18:35,116 After PayPal, Peter Theel was a man with 13993 11:18:32,880 --> 11:18:38,320 a billion dollars and a dangerous 13994 11:18:35,116 --> 11:18:39,680 secret. While other investors were 13995 11:18:38,320 --> 11:18:42,480 looking at spreadsheets [music] and 13996 11:18:39,680 --> 11:18:44,320 profit margins, Theel was looking at the 13997 11:18:42,480 --> 11:18:47,116 human soul through the eyes of his 13998 11:18:44,320 --> 11:18:50,400 mentor, Renee Gerard. 13999 11:18:47,116 --> 11:18:53,840 Gerard taught him a terrifying truth. 14000 11:18:50,400 --> 11:18:56,960 Human beings don't know what they want. 14001 11:18:53,840 --> 11:18:59,680 We are mimemetic creatures. We don't 14002 11:18:56,960 --> 11:19:01,520 desire things for themselves. We desire 14003 11:18:59,680 --> 11:19:04,720 them because other people [music] desire 14004 11:19:01,520 --> 11:19:07,680 them. We are copy machines disguised as 14005 11:19:04,720 --> 11:19:10,320 individuals. 14006 11:19:07,680 --> 11:19:13,040 August 2004. 14007 11:19:10,320 --> 11:19:16,320 Facebook has been online for exactly 6 14008 11:19:13,040 --> 11:19:18,800 months. It started as a Harvard dorm 14009 11:19:16,320 --> 11:19:21,756 project and has now expanded to several 14010 11:19:18,800 --> 11:19:25,040 college campuses. 14011 11:19:21,756 --> 11:19:27,200 The metrics that Zuckerberg shows Theel 14012 11:19:25,040 --> 11:19:28,880 total registered users [music] 14013 11:19:27,200 --> 11:19:32,240 200,000 14014 11:19:28,880 --> 11:19:35,840 almost entirely college students 14015 11:19:32,240 --> 11:19:37,436 daily active user [music] rate 70 to 80% 14016 11:19:35,840 --> 11:19:41,424 engagement 14017 11:19:37,436 --> 11:19:42,240 unprecedented in web services revenue $0 14018 11:19:41,424 --> 11:19:45,116 [music] 14019 11:19:42,240 --> 11:19:49,200 no business model yet valuation 14020 11:19:45,116 --> 11:19:51,040 Zuckerberg is asking for $5 million 14021 11:19:49,200 --> 11:19:53,596 every single professional venture 14022 11:19:51,040 --> 11:19:56,400 capitalist in Silicon Valley has passed 14023 11:19:53,596 --> 11:19:59,520 on Facebook. Every major firm has looked 14024 11:19:56,400 --> 11:20:02,880 into it and said no. The reasons they 14025 11:19:59,520 --> 11:20:06,560 gave it is just a college directory. 14026 11:20:02,880 --> 11:20:07,520 Limited market. Fster has already 5 14027 11:20:06,560 --> 11:20:10,560 million users [music] 14028 11:20:07,520 --> 11:20:13,116 and is the leader in social networking. 14029 11:20:10,560 --> 11:20:15,596 MySpace is dominant with 8 million users 14030 11:20:13,116 --> 11:20:17,840 and growing [music] fast. There is no 14031 11:20:15,596 --> 11:20:19,116 obvious business model or revenue 14032 11:20:17,840 --> 11:20:21,680 stream. [music] 14033 11:20:19,116 --> 11:20:26,560 Mark Zuckerberg is too young, too 14034 11:20:21,680 --> 11:20:28,880 inexperienced, too risky as a founder. 14035 11:20:26,560 --> 11:20:31,436 Peter Theel saw something completely 14036 11:20:28,880 --> 11:20:33,596 different, something that had nothing to 14037 11:20:31,436 --> 11:20:36,000 do with technology. 14038 11:20:33,596 --> 11:20:39,040 Theel had spent years studying Renee 14039 11:20:36,000 --> 11:20:40,560 Gerard's mimemetic theory, the 14040 11:20:39,040 --> 11:20:42,640 philosophical framework that [music] 14041 11:20:40,560 --> 11:20:46,560 would shape his entire investment 14042 11:20:42,640 --> 11:20:49,680 approach, the core idea, humans do not 14043 11:20:46,560 --> 11:20:52,960 have original desires. We desire what 14044 11:20:49,680 --> 11:20:54,800 other people desire. We learn what to 14045 11:20:52,960 --> 11:20:59,360 want by watching other people [music] 14046 11:20:54,800 --> 11:21:03,436 want. Desire is imitative. Desire is 14047 11:20:59,360 --> 11:21:05,596 social. Desire is mimemetic. 14048 11:21:03,436 --> 11:21:07,596 When Theel looked at Facebook, he did 14049 11:21:05,596 --> 11:21:10,400 not see a technology platform for 14050 11:21:07,596 --> 11:21:12,800 connecting friends. He saw something far 14051 11:21:10,400 --> 11:21:16,000 more powerful. He saw the perfect 14052 11:21:12,800 --> 11:21:18,480 mimemetic desire machine. the insight 14053 11:21:16,000 --> 11:21:20,560 that made [music] Theel invest. Social 14054 11:21:18,480 --> 11:21:23,116 networks do not create value by 14055 11:21:20,560 --> 11:21:26,400 connecting people. That is not where the 14056 11:21:23,116 --> 11:21:28,560 money is. The money is in comparison. 14057 11:21:26,400 --> 11:21:31,680 The money is in making people compare 14058 11:21:28,560 --> 11:21:34,400 themselves to each other constantly. 14059 11:21:31,680 --> 11:21:37,200 You see your friend's vacation photos, 14060 11:21:34,400 --> 11:21:39,520 you want a better vacation. You see 14061 11:21:37,200 --> 11:21:42,240 someone's job promotion announcement, 14062 11:21:39,520 --> 11:21:44,880 you want higher status. You see 14063 11:21:42,240 --> 11:21:47,520 someone's relationship photos, you want 14064 11:21:44,880 --> 11:21:49,360 romance. 14065 11:21:47,520 --> 11:21:52,640 You see someone getting likes and 14066 11:21:49,360 --> 11:21:55,520 comments, you want validation. 14067 11:21:52,640 --> 11:21:58,880 You see someone's perfect life, you feel 14068 11:21:55,520 --> 11:22:01,680 your own life is inadequate. 14069 11:21:58,880 --> 11:22:05,200 Facebook was not selling connections. 14070 11:22:01,680 --> 11:22:07,596 Facebook was selling envy. And envy, 14071 11:22:05,200 --> 11:22:10,080 Theel understood from Gerard, is the 14072 11:22:07,596 --> 11:22:11,360 most powerful economic force in human 14073 11:22:10,080 --> 11:22:14,560 history. 14074 11:22:11,360 --> 11:22:17,360 The desire for what others have. They 14075 11:22:14,560 --> 11:22:20,640 need to keep up. The fear of being left 14076 11:22:17,360 --> 11:22:24,080 behind. Infinite envy creates infinite 14077 11:22:20,640 --> 11:22:26,400 demand. Infinite demand creates infinite 14078 11:22:24,080 --> 11:22:28,880 value. 14079 11:22:26,400 --> 11:22:32,800 September 2004. 14080 11:22:28,880 --> 11:22:34,720 Peter Theal wires $500,000 to Facebook 14081 11:22:32,800 --> 11:22:38,960 incororated. 14082 11:22:34,720 --> 11:22:41,840 The deal terms 10.2% equity ownership in 14083 11:22:38,960 --> 11:22:43,596 the company. A board seat giving him 14084 11:22:41,840 --> 11:22:45,276 governance rights and inside 14085 11:22:43,596 --> 11:22:48,160 information. 14086 11:22:45,276 --> 11:22:51,520 Right of first refusal on all future 14087 11:22:48,160 --> 11:22:54,320 funding rounds. Post money valuation of 14088 11:22:51,520 --> 11:22:56,400 exactly $5 million. 14089 11:22:54,320 --> 11:22:59,680 Mark Zuckerberg's reaction after the 14090 11:22:56,400 --> 11:23:02,640 deal closed. This guy actually gets it. 14091 11:22:59,680 --> 11:23:05,680 He understands what we are building. 14092 11:23:02,640 --> 11:23:07,596 Silicon Valley's reaction. Peter Theal 14093 11:23:05,680 --> 11:23:10,720 just threw away half a million dollars 14094 11:23:07,596 --> 11:23:13,276 on a college kid's website. This will be 14095 11:23:10,720 --> 11:23:15,596 his biggest failure. 14096 11:23:13,276 --> 11:23:20,800 What happened next rewrote the history 14097 11:23:15,596 --> 11:23:25,436 of venture capital. 2004 end of year. 14098 11:23:20,800 --> 11:23:29,520 200,000 users grew to 1 million users. 14099 11:23:25,436 --> 11:23:33,040 Five times growth in 4 months. 2005 14100 11:23:29,520 --> 11:23:38,560 1 million users becomes 5.5 million 14101 11:23:33,040 --> 11:23:43,436 users. 2006 5.5 million users becomes 12 14102 11:23:38,560 --> 11:23:48,240 million users. 2007 12 million users 14103 11:23:43,436 --> 11:23:51,116 exploded to 50 million users. 2008 50 14104 11:23:48,240 --> 11:23:52,960 million users doubles to 100 million 14105 11:23:51,116 --> 11:23:54,480 users. 14106 11:23:52,960 --> 11:23:58,080 2009 14107 11:23:54,480 --> 11:24:01,360 100 million users becomes 350 million 14108 11:23:58,080 --> 11:24:04,480 users. growth rate. The user base was 14109 11:24:01,360 --> 11:24:06,880 doubling every 6 to9 months for five 14110 11:24:04,480 --> 11:24:09,436 consecutive years. 14111 11:24:06,880 --> 11:24:12,160 This growth curve had never been seen 14112 11:24:09,436 --> 11:24:15,680 before in business history. Not even 14113 11:24:12,160 --> 11:24:18,160 close. As Facebook grew, its valuation 14114 11:24:15,680 --> 11:24:20,512 grew and Peter Theel's stake grew with 14115 11:24:18,160 --> 11:24:20,512 it. [music] 14116 11:24:20,560 --> 11:24:26,480 May 2005, 14117 11:24:22,720 --> 11:24:29,360 Axel Partners invests $12.7 million at 14118 11:24:26,480 --> 11:24:33,116 $100 million valuation. 14119 11:24:29,360 --> 11:24:36,640 Field's 10.2% stake is now worth $10.2 14120 11:24:33,116 --> 11:24:39,276 million. He has achieved 20 times return 14121 11:24:36,640 --> 11:24:42,800 in 9 months. 14122 11:24:39,276 --> 11:24:47,116 April 2006, Greylock Partners and 14123 11:24:42,800 --> 11:24:49,840 Meritech Capital invest $27.5 million at 14124 11:24:47,116 --> 11:24:53,276 $500 million valuation. 14125 11:24:49,840 --> 11:24:55,596 Theel stake is now worth $51 million, 14126 11:24:53,276 --> 11:24:57,276 100 times return on his original 14127 11:24:55,596 --> 11:24:59,756 investment. 14128 11:24:57,276 --> 11:25:04,320 October 2007, 14129 11:24:59,756 --> 11:25:08,000 Microsoft invests $240 million, valuing 14130 11:25:04,320 --> 11:25:12,400 Facebook at $15 billion. 14131 11:25:08,000 --> 11:25:16,960 Theel stake is now worth $1.5 billion, a 14132 11:25:12,400 --> 11:25:19,916 300,000 times return in 3 years. 14133 11:25:16,960 --> 11:25:22,320 2009 through 2011, 14134 11:25:19,916 --> 11:25:25,436 multiple private sales and secondary 14135 11:25:22,320 --> 11:25:27,276 transactions value Facebook at $50 14136 11:25:25,436 --> 11:25:30,240 billion. 14137 11:25:27,276 --> 11:25:33,680 The stake, if he had held everything, 14138 11:25:30,240 --> 11:25:37,040 would be [music] worth $5 billion. 14139 11:25:33,680 --> 11:25:39,436 May 18th, 2012. 14140 11:25:37,040 --> 11:25:44,320 Facebook goes public at a market 14141 11:25:39,436 --> 11:25:46,960 capitalization of $14 billion. 14142 11:25:44,320 --> 11:25:50,160 But Theel does not hold everything. He 14143 11:25:46,960 --> 11:25:52,640 is strategic. He is tactical. He takes 14144 11:25:50,160 --> 11:25:56,720 profits. At [music] the initial public 14145 11:25:52,640 --> 11:25:59,200 offering, Theel sells $640 million worth 14146 11:25:56,720 --> 11:26:01,436 of shares immediately. 14147 11:25:59,200 --> 11:26:03,596 Over the following 6 months, he sells 14148 11:26:01,436 --> 11:26:06,000 the remainder of his stake in carefully 14149 11:26:03,596 --> 11:26:08,240 timed transactions. 14150 11:26:06,000 --> 11:26:12,960 Total cash realized from the Facebook 14151 11:26:08,240 --> 11:26:16,240 investment approximately $1 billion. 14152 11:26:12,960 --> 11:26:18,240 Initial investment in August 2004, 14153 11:26:16,240 --> 11:26:20,720 $500,000. 14154 11:26:18,240 --> 11:26:24,080 Total [music] cash realized by end of 14155 11:26:20,720 --> 11:26:28,880 2012, $1 billion. 14156 11:26:24,080 --> 11:26:30,720 Total return 2,000 times in 8 years. 14157 11:26:28,880 --> 11:26:33,680 This is the single greatest venture 14158 11:26:30,720 --> 11:26:36,080 capital return in recorded history. 14159 11:26:33,680 --> 11:26:38,880 Nothing else comes close. 14160 11:26:36,080 --> 11:26:40,880 But here is the twist. The haunting 14161 11:26:38,880 --> 11:26:44,320 decision that Theel himself [music] 14162 11:26:40,880 --> 11:26:46,400 admits keeps him awake at night. Selling 14163 11:26:44,320 --> 11:26:49,116 was a mistake. 14164 11:26:46,400 --> 11:26:52,160 If Peter Theal had held his original 14165 11:26:49,116 --> 11:26:54,720 10.2% [music] stake and had never sold a 14166 11:26:52,160 --> 11:26:58,640 single share, that stake at Facebook's 14167 11:26:54,720 --> 11:27:02,560 peak market capitalization in 2021 would 14168 11:26:58,640 --> 11:27:05,756 have been worth 102 billion. 14169 11:27:02,560 --> 11:27:08,800 $12 [music] billion. 14170 11:27:05,756 --> 11:27:10,960 He left $100 billion on the table by 14171 11:27:08,800 --> 11:27:12,724 selling early. 14172 11:27:10,960 --> 11:27:15,116 The himself admitted this publicly, 14173 11:27:12,724 --> 11:27:17,916 [music] saying, "The mistake was not 14174 11:27:15,116 --> 11:27:20,000 investing in Facebook. The mistake was 14175 11:27:17,916 --> 11:27:22,720 selling Facebook. 14176 11:27:20,000 --> 11:27:25,276 I should have held longer. I should have 14177 11:27:22,720 --> 11:27:30,000 believed more. It is the single most 14178 11:27:25,276 --> 11:27:32,080 expensive decision of his life." Years 14179 11:27:30,000 --> 11:27:34,320 later in a Stanford [music] lecture, 14180 11:27:32,080 --> 11:27:38,560 Theel explained his actual investment 14181 11:27:34,320 --> 11:27:40,640 thesis, the real reason he invested. I 14182 11:27:38,560 --> 11:27:42,080 did not invest in Facebook because I 14183 11:27:40,640 --> 11:27:44,800 thought [music] social networks were 14184 11:27:42,080 --> 11:27:47,040 going to be big. I invested because I 14185 11:27:44,800 --> 11:27:49,276 understood that humans will always want 14186 11:27:47,040 --> 11:27:52,960 to be more like their [music] peers. 14187 11:27:49,276 --> 11:27:55,436 That desire is infinite. It never stops. 14188 11:27:52,960 --> 11:27:58,000 It only intensifies. 14189 11:27:55,436 --> 11:28:00,960 An infinite desire creates infinite 14190 11:27:58,000 --> 11:28:03,116 value. The mimemetic [music] theory made 14191 11:28:00,960 --> 11:28:05,040 him a billionaire. 14192 11:28:03,116 --> 11:28:07,436 The mimemetic theory also [music] made 14193 11:28:05,040 --> 11:28:08,960 him terrified of what he had helped 14194 11:28:07,436 --> 11:28:12,320 create. 14195 11:28:08,960 --> 11:28:14,800 A machine that weaponizes human envy. A 14196 11:28:12,320 --> 11:28:16,720 system that profits from making people 14197 11:28:14,800 --> 11:28:19,360 feel [music] inadequate. 14198 11:28:16,720 --> 11:28:21,916 An algorithm that amplifies the worst 14199 11:28:19,360 --> 11:28:24,160 aspects [music] of human nature. 14200 11:28:21,916 --> 11:28:26,080 Peter Theal helped build the most 14201 11:28:24,160 --> 11:28:29,756 powerful behavior modification [music] 14202 11:28:26,080 --> 11:28:34,436 system in human history. And then he 14203 11:28:29,756 --> 11:28:34,436 cashed out for a billion dollars. 14204 11:28:40,800 --> 11:28:48,640 2003 Peter Theel has a problem. It is 14205 11:28:45,436 --> 11:28:51,680 the CIA's problem, but they think the 14206 11:28:48,640 --> 11:28:54,480 can solve it. His PayPal anti-fraud 14207 11:28:51,680 --> 11:28:56,800 algorithms have become so sophisticated 14208 11:28:54,480 --> 11:28:59,116 at detecting patterns in financial 14209 11:28:56,800 --> 11:29:01,360 transactions at finding terrorists 14210 11:28:59,116 --> 11:29:05,116 trying to move money through banking 14211 11:29:01,360 --> 11:29:08,480 systems that the CIA venture capital arm 14212 11:29:05,116 --> 11:29:11,436 in QEL requested a meeting. [music] 14213 11:29:08,480 --> 11:29:14,160 The pitch from the CIA, can you build 14214 11:29:11,436 --> 11:29:16,640 what you built for PayPal but for 14215 11:29:14,160 --> 11:29:20,400 national security? Can you find 14216 11:29:16,640 --> 11:29:22,320 terrorists the way you found fraudsters? 14217 11:29:20,400 --> 11:29:24,720 May 2003, 14218 11:29:22,320 --> 11:29:27,116 Peter Theel co-founds Palunteer 14219 11:29:24,720 --> 11:29:28,720 Technologies with an unusual group of 14220 11:29:27,116 --> 11:29:31,680 co-founders. 14221 11:29:28,720 --> 11:29:35,116 The founding team, Alex Karp, chief 14222 11:29:31,680 --> 11:29:37,520 executive officer, Stanford Law Degree, 14223 11:29:35,116 --> 11:29:40,160 philosophy, PhD from Frankfurt 14224 11:29:37,520 --> 11:29:42,800 University in Germany, former human 14225 11:29:40,160 --> 11:29:44,320 rights lawyer who once worked on refugee 14226 11:29:42,800 --> 11:29:46,880 cases. 14227 11:29:44,320 --> 11:29:48,880 an extremely odd choice to run a company 14228 11:29:46,880 --> 11:29:51,040 that will become the most powerful 14229 11:29:48,880 --> 11:29:52,560 surveillance technology provider on 14230 11:29:51,040 --> 11:29:55,116 Earth. 14231 11:29:52,560 --> 11:29:58,240 Nathan Gettings, chief technology 14232 11:29:55,116 --> 11:30:01,200 officer. PayPal's lead security 14233 11:29:58,240 --> 11:30:04,160 engineer. Brilliant programmer. Joe 14234 11:30:01,200 --> 11:30:07,116 Lndale, a Stamford undergraduate 14235 11:30:04,160 --> 11:30:10,720 student, barely 20 years old, one of the 14236 11:30:07,116 --> 11:30:13,840 first Theel fellows. Steven Cohen, 14237 11:30:10,720 --> 11:30:15,472 PayPal's chief security architect. The 14238 11:30:13,840 --> 11:30:18,000 person who actually built the fraud 14239 11:30:15,472 --> 11:30:20,400 [music] detection algorithms. Initial 14240 11:30:18,000 --> 11:30:22,560 funding $2 million 14241 11:30:20,400 --> 11:30:26,160 entirely from Peter Theel's personal 14242 11:30:22,560 --> 11:30:28,320 capital. No outside investors yet. This 14243 11:30:26,160 --> 11:30:30,960 is his project. 14244 11:30:28,320 --> 11:30:32,640 The mission statement. Build software 14245 11:30:30,960 --> 11:30:35,116 that can find patterns in [music] 14246 11:30:32,640 --> 11:30:38,000 massive data sets from disperate 14247 11:30:35,116 --> 11:30:41,040 incompatible sources. 14248 11:30:38,000 --> 11:30:43,360 The kind of data that if intelligency 14249 11:30:41,040 --> 11:30:46,320 agencies had been able to analyze it 14250 11:30:43,360 --> 11:30:49,276 properly could have prevented September 14251 11:30:46,320 --> 11:30:52,880 11th, 2001. 14252 11:30:49,276 --> 11:30:55,276 The company name Palunteer named after 14253 11:30:52,880 --> 11:30:57,276 the seeing stones in Lord of the Rings, 14254 11:30:55,276 --> 11:30:59,436 the magical orbs that allow their 14255 11:30:57,276 --> 11:31:02,400 possessors to see anything happening 14256 11:30:59,436 --> 11:31:05,840 anywhere in Middle Earth. Even the name 14257 11:31:02,400 --> 11:31:07,436 revealed the ambition total information 14258 11:31:05,840 --> 11:31:12,276 awareness. 14259 11:31:07,436 --> 11:31:12,276 the ability to see everything. 14260 11:31:12,480 --> 11:31:17,596 2005, 14261 11:31:14,000 --> 11:31:20,480 the CIA's venture capital arm in CQEL 14262 11:31:17,596 --> 11:31:23,360 invest $2 million in Palanteer's series 14263 11:31:20,480 --> 11:31:26,080 A funding round. This was not just 14264 11:31:23,360 --> 11:31:28,640 money. This was validation from the 14265 11:31:26,080 --> 11:31:30,960 intelligence [music] community. A stamp 14266 11:31:28,640 --> 11:31:33,416 of approval from the most secretive, 14267 11:31:30,960 --> 11:31:35,360 most paranoid organization in the US 14268 11:31:33,416 --> 11:31:39,200 [music] government. 14269 11:31:35,360 --> 11:31:41,276 Initial contract value undisclosed. 14270 11:31:39,200 --> 11:31:44,640 Government intelligence contracts are 14271 11:31:41,276 --> 11:31:47,360 classified by law, but industry analysts 14272 11:31:44,640 --> 11:31:50,800 estimate the first CIA contracts were 14273 11:31:47,360 --> 11:31:52,880 worth 5 to 10 million annually. 14274 11:31:50,800 --> 11:31:56,400 The product was called Palunteer [music] 14275 11:31:52,880 --> 11:32:00,160 Gotham. The name itself was significant. 14276 11:31:56,400 --> 11:32:02,160 Gotham, the dark city that needs Batman. 14277 11:32:00,160 --> 11:32:04,640 The city that needs surveillance to 14278 11:32:02,160 --> 11:32:06,160 fight crime. core technical 14279 11:32:04,640 --> 11:32:08,160 capabilities. 14280 11:32:06,160 --> 11:32:10,880 Integrate data [music] from dozens of 14281 11:32:08,160 --> 11:32:12,720 incompatible government databases that 14282 11:32:10,880 --> 11:32:14,880 were never designed to communicate with 14283 11:32:12,720 --> 11:32:17,680 [music] each other. From hidden 14284 11:32:14,880 --> 11:32:20,480 connections between people, places, 14285 11:32:17,680 --> 11:32:22,160 financial transactions, communications 14286 11:32:20,480 --> 11:32:24,800 metadata, 14287 11:32:22,160 --> 11:32:27,040 visualize networks of relationships in 14288 11:32:24,800 --> 11:32:29,040 ways human analysts could understand 14289 11:32:27,040 --> 11:32:31,360 intuitively. 14290 11:32:29,040 --> 11:32:33,596 Predict future behavior and likely 14291 11:32:31,360 --> 11:32:36,560 attack patterns based on historical 14292 11:32:33,596 --> 11:32:39,436 data. Specific use cases for 14293 11:32:36,560 --> 11:32:42,400 intelligence agencies. Track terrorist 14294 11:32:39,436 --> 11:32:44,400 cells across multiple countries. Map 14295 11:32:42,400 --> 11:32:46,560 drug trafficking routes from production 14296 11:32:44,400 --> 11:32:48,720 to distribution. 14297 11:32:46,560 --> 11:32:51,680 Identify money laundering networks 14298 11:32:48,720 --> 11:32:54,160 moving funds for organized crime. 14299 11:32:51,680 --> 11:32:56,400 Predict insurgent attacks in Iraq and 14300 11:32:54,160 --> 11:33:00,080 Afghanistan based on pattern 14301 11:32:56,400 --> 11:33:03,840 recognition. It worked. The software 14302 11:33:00,080 --> 11:33:06,960 actually worked. By 2006, Palanteer 14303 11:33:03,840 --> 11:33:08,320 software was being actively used in Iraq 14304 11:33:06,960 --> 11:33:13,520 for counterinsurgency [music] 14305 11:33:08,320 --> 11:33:15,756 operations and in IED attack prediction. 14306 11:33:13,520 --> 11:33:18,720 Afghanistan for predicting Taliban 14307 11:33:15,756 --> 11:33:22,320 leadership networks. Langley, Virginia 14308 11:33:18,720 --> 11:33:25,040 at CIA headquarters for threat analysis. 14309 11:33:22,320 --> 11:33:29,240 FBI field officers nationwide for 14310 11:33:25,040 --> 11:33:29,240 domestic terrorism investigation. 14311 11:33:29,276 --> 11:33:35,436 Early revenue growth told the story of 14312 11:33:31,436 --> 11:33:38,240 Palunteers expanding reach. 2005 14313 11:33:35,436 --> 11:33:41,116 $3 million in revenue. Government 14314 11:33:38,240 --> 11:33:44,560 contracts [music] only. 2006 $10 14315 11:33:41,116 --> 11:33:50,000 million. 2007 14316 11:33:44,560 --> 11:33:54,640 $25 million. 2008 $50 million. First 14317 11:33:50,000 --> 11:34:01,116 commercial clients added 2010 $150 14318 11:33:54,640 --> 11:34:02,880 million 2012 $400 million. By 2012, 14319 11:34:01,116 --> 11:34:05,040 Palanteer had achieved something 14320 11:34:02,880 --> 11:34:08,720 extremely rare for a high- growth 14321 11:34:05,040 --> 11:34:10,960 technology company. Profitability. 14322 11:34:08,720 --> 11:34:13,916 They were actually making money, not 14323 11:34:10,960 --> 11:34:17,040 just burning venture capital. Customer 14324 11:34:13,916 --> 11:34:21,040 revenue breakdown in 2012. 14325 11:34:17,040 --> 11:34:23,596 Government contracts, 60% of revenue, 14326 11:34:21,040 --> 11:34:28,080 $240 million. 14327 11:34:23,596 --> 11:34:30,800 Commercial clients, 40% of revenue, $160 14328 11:34:28,080 --> 11:34:34,800 million. 14329 11:34:30,800 --> 11:34:37,116 May the 1st, 2011. Palanteer Software 14330 11:34:34,800 --> 11:34:40,400 plays a role in the operation that kills 14331 11:34:37,116 --> 11:34:42,640 Osama bin Laden. A role that remains 14332 11:34:40,400 --> 11:34:45,756 partially classified, but has been 14333 11:34:42,640 --> 11:34:48,560 confirmed by multiple sources. 14334 11:34:45,756 --> 11:34:50,880 How Palanteer contributed. Palanteer 14335 11:34:48,560 --> 11:34:53,276 Gotham integrated dozens of different 14336 11:34:50,880 --> 11:34:55,680 intelligence sources. 14337 11:34:53,276 --> 11:34:58,880 CIA human intelligence on career 14338 11:34:55,680 --> 11:35:01,436 networks. NSA signal intelligence 14339 11:34:58,880 --> 11:35:04,320 including phone metadata and email 14340 11:35:01,436 --> 11:35:07,436 communications patterns. 14341 11:35:04,320 --> 11:35:10,320 National Geospatial Intelligence Agency 14342 11:35:07,436 --> 11:35:11,840 satellite imagery of potential compound 14343 11:35:10,320 --> 11:35:14,320 locations. 14344 11:35:11,840 --> 11:35:16,320 historical pattern analysis of previous 14345 11:35:14,320 --> 11:35:19,116 highv value target operations in 14346 11:35:16,320 --> 11:35:21,200 Pakistan. 14347 11:35:19,116 --> 11:35:23,520 The system identified patterns and 14348 11:35:21,200 --> 11:35:26,000 connections that human analysts working 14349 11:35:23,520 --> 11:35:29,200 with separate databases that did not 14350 11:35:26,000 --> 11:35:31,436 communicate had missed. It narrowed the 14351 11:35:29,200 --> 11:35:35,916 search area and helped confirm the 14352 11:35:31,436 --> 11:35:38,000 identity of the Abotabad compound. 14353 11:35:35,916 --> 11:35:40,400 When asked about Palanteer's role in the 14354 11:35:38,000 --> 11:35:43,520 bin Laden operation, Theel gave 14355 11:35:40,400 --> 11:35:45,840 carefully worded response. I cannot 14356 11:35:43,520 --> 11:35:48,400 comment on specific operations or 14357 11:35:45,840 --> 11:35:52,560 specific clients due to classification 14358 11:35:48,400 --> 11:35:54,960 requirements, but I will say this. Tools 14359 11:35:52,560 --> 11:35:57,116 that help protect American lives and 14360 11:35:54,960 --> 11:36:02,480 help intelligence professionals do their 14361 11:35:57,116 --> 11:36:04,720 jobs better. That is our mission. 14362 11:36:02,480 --> 11:36:07,212 This single operation, this single 14363 11:36:04,720 --> 11:36:09,276 success legitimized Palanteer's entire 14364 11:36:07,212 --> 11:36:12,080 [music] value proposition to the 14365 11:36:09,276 --> 11:36:14,960 national security establishment. 14366 11:36:12,080 --> 11:36:17,436 After bin Laden, the contracts poured 14367 11:36:14,960 --> 11:36:20,160 in. 14368 11:36:17,436 --> 11:36:23,116 After the bin Laden success, Palanteer's 14369 11:36:20,160 --> 11:36:27,680 government business exploded. Revenue 14370 11:36:23,116 --> 11:36:33,040 growth from 2012 to 2015. 14371 11:36:27,680 --> 11:36:34,960 2012, $400 million in revenue. 2013, 14372 11:36:33,040 --> 11:36:36,480 $600 million. [music] 14373 11:36:34,960 --> 11:36:41,840 2014, 14374 11:36:36,480 --> 11:36:44,548 $900 million. 2015, $1.5 billion in 14375 11:36:41,840 --> 11:36:47,960 revenue. Major new contracts announced 14376 11:36:44,548 --> 11:36:47,960 [music] publicly. 14377 11:36:49,360 --> 11:36:56,800 US Department of Defense, $222 million 14378 11:36:53,916 --> 11:36:58,560 for a 3-year data integration platform 14379 11:36:56,800 --> 11:37:02,560 contract. 14380 11:36:58,560 --> 11:37:05,596 US Army, $800 million for comprehensive 14381 11:37:02,560 --> 11:37:07,840 data platform modernization across all 14382 11:37:05,596 --> 11:37:12,000 Army systems, 14383 11:37:07,840 --> 11:37:14,640 US Special Operations Command, $444 14384 11:37:12,000 --> 11:37:16,400 million for targeting and intelligence 14385 11:37:14,640 --> 11:37:19,916 fusion, 14386 11:37:16,400 --> 11:37:22,240 Department of Homeland Security, $240 14387 11:37:19,916 --> 11:37:25,360 million for border security and 14388 11:37:22,240 --> 11:37:27,756 immigration enforcement [music] systems. 14389 11:37:25,360 --> 11:37:30,320 Palanteer had become the single most 14390 11:37:27,756 --> 11:37:32,240 important software company in the entire 14391 11:37:30,320 --> 11:37:33,840 US defense and intelligence 14392 11:37:32,240 --> 11:37:36,080 establishment, [music] 14393 11:37:33,840 --> 11:37:39,276 more important than traditional defense 14394 11:37:36,080 --> 11:37:41,276 contractors, more embedded in classified 14395 11:37:39,276 --> 11:37:43,916 operations. 14396 11:37:41,276 --> 11:37:45,916 Simultaneously, Palunteer launched a 14397 11:37:43,916 --> 11:37:46,720 commercial product called Palunteer 14398 11:37:45,916 --> 11:37:49,520 Foundry [music] 14399 11:37:46,720 --> 11:37:52,640 for private sector clients. The sales 14400 11:37:49,520 --> 11:37:56,080 pitch to corporate America. Your company 14401 11:37:52,640 --> 11:37:59,116 has exactly the same problem as the CIA. 14402 11:37:56,080 --> 11:38:02,560 Too much data, too many incompatible 14403 11:37:59,116 --> 11:38:05,436 systems, not enough insight. We can help 14404 11:38:02,560 --> 11:38:08,000 you find the patterns you are missing. 14405 11:38:05,436 --> 11:38:11,520 Major commercial clients and estimated 14406 11:38:08,000 --> 11:38:15,916 contract values. 14407 11:38:11,520 --> 11:38:18,160 JP Morgan Chase, over $100 million, 14408 11:38:15,916 --> 11:38:21,520 fraud detection and financial crime 14409 11:38:18,160 --> 11:38:24,400 prevention. Morgan Stanley over $50 14410 11:38:21,520 --> 11:38:29,200 million risk management and regulatory 14411 11:38:24,400 --> 11:38:31,360 compliance. Airbus over $75 million 14412 11:38:29,200 --> 11:38:34,080 supply chain optimization and 14413 11:38:31,360 --> 11:38:38,240 manufacturing analytics. 14414 11:38:34,080 --> 11:38:40,880 Merc Pharmaceuticals over $60 million 14415 11:38:38,240 --> 11:38:43,756 drug discovery analytics and clinical 14416 11:38:40,880 --> 11:38:48,320 trial data integration. 14417 11:38:43,756 --> 11:38:52,160 BP over $80 million oil field production 14418 11:38:48,320 --> 11:38:55,436 optimization and predictive maintenance. 14419 11:38:52,160 --> 11:38:57,276 Commercial revenue growth from 2015 to 14420 11:38:55,436 --> 11:39:00,560 2020. [music] 14421 11:38:57,276 --> 11:39:04,240 In 2015, they got $600 million 14422 11:39:00,560 --> 11:39:08,720 commercial revenue. By 2016, the number 14423 11:39:04,240 --> 11:39:11,360 was around $800 billion. In 2017, they 14424 11:39:08,720 --> 11:39:14,800 reached $1.1 billion in commercial 14425 11:39:11,360 --> 11:39:18,720 revenue, and it became their peak year. 14426 11:39:14,800 --> 11:39:21,040 2018 made them hit the $750 million 14427 11:39:18,720 --> 11:39:24,520 mark, a temporary decline due to 14428 11:39:21,040 --> 11:39:24,520 customer churn. 14429 11:39:24,560 --> 11:39:30,320 In 2019, revenue was around $745 14430 11:39:28,720 --> 11:39:33,436 million, 14431 11:39:30,320 --> 11:39:37,360 and by 2020, they [music] reached $1.1 14432 11:39:33,436 --> 11:39:41,040 billion. Again, this recovery was driven 14433 11:39:37,360 --> 11:39:43,520 by COVID analytics contracts. Palanteer 14434 11:39:41,040 --> 11:39:46,880 had created a business model with two 14435 11:39:43,520 --> 11:39:48,720 enormous locked in customer bases, the 14436 11:39:46,880 --> 11:39:52,916 US government and the largest 14437 11:39:48,720 --> 11:39:52,916 corporations [music] in the world. 14438 11:39:54,480 --> 11:39:59,596 But Palanteer's work, especially for 14439 11:39:56,800 --> 11:40:03,040 government agencies, attracted intense 14440 11:39:59,596 --> 11:40:06,000 controversy and moral criticism. 14441 11:40:03,040 --> 11:40:10,080 In 2019, they secured a contract with 14442 11:40:06,000 --> 11:40:12,184 ICE for $49 million. The purpose of the 14443 11:40:10,080 --> 11:40:15,040 contract was enforcement and removal 14444 11:40:12,184 --> 11:40:17,916 [music] operations systems, 14445 11:40:15,040 --> 11:40:20,400 meaning a software used to identify, 14446 11:40:17,916 --> 11:40:23,200 track, and process undocumented 14447 11:40:20,400 --> 11:40:25,360 immigrants for deportation. 14448 11:40:23,200 --> 11:40:28,080 This project came with a controversy 14449 11:40:25,360 --> 11:40:30,000 attached. The software was used during 14450 11:40:28,080 --> 11:40:32,720 the family separation [music] policy at 14451 11:40:30,000 --> 11:40:36,320 the southern border. Children separated 14452 11:40:32,720 --> 11:40:38,480 from their parents, families torn apart. 14453 11:40:36,320 --> 11:40:41,200 Palanteer Software helped make it 14454 11:40:38,480 --> 11:40:43,756 operationally possible. Hundreds of 14455 11:40:41,200 --> 11:40:46,160 Palunteer employees signed an internal 14456 11:40:43,756 --> 11:40:49,360 letter demanding the company cancel the 14457 11:40:46,160 --> 11:40:51,596 ICE [music] contract. 14458 11:40:49,360 --> 11:40:54,640 They argued the company was enabling 14459 11:40:51,596 --> 11:40:58,400 human rights [music] abuses. The Karp's 14460 11:40:54,640 --> 11:41:00,400 response, absolute refusal. The contract 14461 11:40:58,400 --> 11:41:02,960 would continue. 14462 11:41:00,400 --> 11:41:05,276 Alex K gave a public statement saying 14463 11:41:02,960 --> 11:41:08,800 that they had chosen sides and that the 14464 11:41:05,276 --> 11:41:11,276 company supported American institutions. 14465 11:41:08,800 --> 11:41:14,640 But this was not the only controversy 14466 11:41:11,276 --> 11:41:17,596 Palanteer has faced. Palanteer worked 14467 11:41:14,640 --> 11:41:18,880 alongside the NYPD with a contract 14468 11:41:17,596 --> 11:41:22,800 estimated between [music] 14469 11:41:18,880 --> 11:41:25,116 50 and $100 billion. The mission 14470 11:41:22,800 --> 11:41:27,436 predictive policy. 14471 11:41:25,116 --> 11:41:30,000 They were asked to use historical crime 14472 11:41:27,436 --> 11:41:32,960 data to predict where future crimes will 14473 11:41:30,000 --> 11:41:35,680 occur and who is likely to commit them. 14474 11:41:32,960 --> 11:41:38,480 The controversy civil rights groups 14475 11:41:35,680 --> 11:41:41,360 argued that system perpetuated racial 14476 11:41:38,480 --> 11:41:44,320 bias. Minority neighborhoods were 14477 11:41:41,360 --> 11:41:45,916 flagged as high risk. Innocent people 14478 11:41:44,320 --> 11:41:49,840 were [music] put under surveillance 14479 11:41:45,916 --> 11:41:53,436 based on algorithmic predictions. 14480 11:41:49,840 --> 11:41:55,916 Joe Londale, Palunteer co-founder, had 14481 11:41:53,436 --> 11:41:57,520 made a personal investment in Cambridge 14482 11:41:55,916 --> 11:41:59,840 Analytica. 14483 11:41:57,520 --> 11:42:02,320 Multiple Palanteer employees on their 14484 11:41:59,840 --> 11:42:06,840 own time helped Cambridge Analytica 14485 11:42:02,320 --> 11:42:06,840 build data integration models. 14486 11:42:06,960 --> 11:42:12,000 Both companies use similar approaches to 14487 11:42:09,680 --> 11:42:13,596 data harvesting and psychological 14488 11:42:12,000 --> 11:42:15,360 profiling. 14489 11:42:13,596 --> 11:42:18,240 When the connection was exposed by 14490 11:42:15,360 --> 11:42:21,276 journalists, Palanteer claimed there was 14491 11:42:18,240 --> 11:42:24,640 no institutional relationship, just 14492 11:42:21,276 --> 11:42:26,880 coincidental personal connections. 14493 11:42:24,640 --> 11:42:30,960 But the damage to Palanteer's reputation 14494 11:42:26,880 --> 11:42:33,360 was done. The had built the panoptagon, 14495 11:42:30,960 --> 11:42:35,840 the allseeing eye of corporate and 14496 11:42:33,360 --> 11:42:39,276 government surveillance. 14497 11:42:35,840 --> 11:42:42,480 September the 30th, 2020. 14498 11:42:39,276 --> 11:42:44,400 After 17 years as a private company, one 14499 11:42:42,480 --> 11:42:47,116 of the longest periods of private 14500 11:42:44,400 --> 11:42:50,080 operation for any major tech company, 14501 11:42:47,116 --> 11:42:53,116 Palanteer finally goes public through a 14502 11:42:50,080 --> 11:42:56,000 direct listing. 14503 11:42:53,116 --> 11:42:58,880 They went public at $10 per share and 14504 11:42:56,000 --> 11:43:02,480 their market capitalization at market 14505 11:42:58,880 --> 11:43:05,840 open was $16 billion. 14506 11:43:02,480 --> 11:43:07,680 By the first day, shares were down 5%. 14507 11:43:05,840 --> 11:43:09,200 The stock was initially a 14508 11:43:07,680 --> 11:43:11,360 disappointment. 14509 11:43:09,200 --> 11:43:13,360 Investors were skeptical of the business 14510 11:43:11,360 --> 11:43:16,000 model, worried about customer 14511 11:43:13,360 --> 11:43:18,080 concentration, concerned about the 14512 11:43:16,000 --> 11:43:21,200 controversy. 14513 11:43:18,080 --> 11:43:24,240 But then COVID 19 created massive new 14514 11:43:21,200 --> 11:43:28,160 demand for Palanteer's capabilities. 14515 11:43:24,240 --> 11:43:30,560 2020 to 2021, Palanteer wins enormous 14516 11:43:28,160 --> 11:43:33,756 pandemic related government contracts 14517 11:43:30,560 --> 11:43:35,840 with governments across the world. The 14518 11:43:33,756 --> 11:43:39,116 pandemic proved that governments needed 14519 11:43:35,840 --> 11:43:42,160 Palanteer and the market responded. 14520 11:43:39,116 --> 11:43:48,080 By late 2021, Palanteer stock had 14521 11:43:42,160 --> 11:43:50,480 exploded. $29 per share at 190% gain 14522 11:43:48,080 --> 11:43:52,240 from the direct listing price. Market 14523 11:43:50,480 --> 11:43:55,800 capitalization 14524 11:43:52,240 --> 11:43:55,800 $60 billion. 14525 11:43:56,960 --> 11:44:03,916 Peter Theal stake approximately 7% 14526 11:44:00,560 --> 11:44:07,840 ownership worth 4.2 2 billion at the 14527 11:44:03,916 --> 11:44:10,960 peak. 2022, the tech crash hits 14528 11:44:07,840 --> 11:44:14,960 Palanteer brutally hard. Stock prices 14529 11:44:10,960 --> 11:44:18,160 crash to $6 per share, down 8% from the 14530 11:44:14,960 --> 11:44:20,320 peak. Market cap collapses to $13 14531 11:44:18,160 --> 11:44:22,400 billion. 14532 11:44:20,320 --> 11:44:28,240 The paper wealth from Palanteer 14533 11:44:22,400 --> 11:44:31,596 evaporates. Billions gone. 2023 to 2024, 14534 11:44:28,240 --> 11:44:34,000 the AI boom creates new opportunity. 14535 11:44:31,596 --> 11:44:36,960 Palanteer markets itself as the AI 14536 11:44:34,000 --> 11:44:39,916 platform for governments and enterprises 14537 11:44:36,960 --> 11:44:44,640 and they get major new contract wins. 14538 11:44:39,916 --> 11:44:46,632 The US Army invested $463 million for AI 14539 11:44:44,640 --> 11:44:49,680 powered battlefield analytics and 14540 11:44:46,632 --> 11:44:52,160 [music] decision support systems. 14541 11:44:49,680 --> 11:44:56,880 Palanteer stock recovered 14542 11:44:52,160 --> 11:44:59,520 25 to 30 per share by 2024. 14543 11:44:56,880 --> 11:45:02,480 As of 2024, Peter Theel's current 14544 11:44:59,520 --> 11:45:04,960 Palanteer holdings are approximately 7% 14545 11:45:02,480 --> 11:45:09,040 of all shares with a current value 14546 11:45:04,960 --> 11:45:13,640 ranging from 3.8 to $4.5 billion 14547 11:45:09,040 --> 11:45:13,640 depending on daily stock price. 14548 11:45:15,200 --> 11:45:21,840 This makes Palunteer Field's single 14549 11:45:18,400 --> 11:45:25,116 largest source of personal wealth. In 14550 11:45:21,840 --> 11:45:27,200 2024, Palanteer's financial performance 14551 11:45:25,116 --> 11:45:30,000 was divided between government and 14552 11:45:27,200 --> 11:45:34,800 commercial revenue. The company's net 14553 11:45:30,000 --> 11:45:36,640 income was $2.5 billion annually. And as 14554 11:45:34,800 --> 11:45:38,560 big as the number is, this might 14555 11:45:36,640 --> 11:45:41,040 represent a future problem for the 14556 11:45:38,560 --> 11:45:43,200 company. If government budget cuts 14557 11:45:41,040 --> 11:45:44,720 happen, Palanteer is extremely 14558 11:45:43,200 --> 11:45:46,960 vulnerable. 14559 11:45:44,720 --> 11:45:50,560 Their entire business model depends on 14560 11:45:46,960 --> 11:45:53,756 continued government spending. Here is 14561 11:45:50,560 --> 11:45:55,756 Peter Theal's fundamental contradiction. 14562 11:45:53,756 --> 11:45:57,680 The paradox at the heart of everything 14563 11:45:55,756 --> 11:45:59,916 he has built. He claims to be a 14564 11:45:57,680 --> 11:46:03,200 libertarian who values individual 14565 11:45:59,916 --> 11:46:04,880 freedom above all else. A man who 14566 11:46:03,200 --> 11:46:07,276 believes government power should be 14567 11:46:04,880 --> 11:46:10,480 minimal. A man who wrote that freedom 14568 11:46:07,276 --> 11:46:13,040 and democracy are incompatible. 14569 11:46:10,480 --> 11:46:15,060 Yet, he built the most powerful private 14570 11:46:13,040 --> 11:46:18,080 surveillance technology company in 14571 11:46:15,060 --> 11:46:20,240 [music] human history. A company that 14572 11:46:18,080 --> 11:46:23,680 gives governments and corporations 14573 11:46:20,240 --> 11:46:26,960 unprecedented ability to monitor, track, 14574 11:46:23,680 --> 11:46:29,360 predict, and control human behavior. 14575 11:46:26,960 --> 11:46:31,520 Palunteers technical capabilities 14576 11:46:29,360 --> 11:46:34,320 include [music] realtime tracking of 14577 11:46:31,520 --> 11:46:37,720 individuals across multiple data sources 14578 11:46:34,320 --> 11:46:37,720 and databases. 14579 11:46:38,320 --> 11:46:42,960 Predictive behavioral modeling that 14580 11:46:40,960 --> 11:46:46,240 forecasts what people will do before 14581 11:46:42,960 --> 11:46:48,640 they do it. Network analysis that maps 14582 11:46:46,240 --> 11:46:50,800 every person you have ever contacted 14583 11:46:48,640 --> 11:46:52,960 through any medium. [music] 14584 11:46:50,800 --> 11:46:56,080 Complete integration of financial 14585 11:46:52,960 --> 11:46:58,400 records, communication metadata, 14586 11:46:56,080 --> 11:47:01,596 location history, and social 14587 11:46:58,400 --> 11:47:03,520 relationship data into a single unified 14588 11:47:01,596 --> 11:47:06,080 profile. 14589 11:47:03,520 --> 11:47:08,400 Field's defense of this contradiction 14590 11:47:06,080 --> 11:47:12,640 was explaining that the alternative to 14591 11:47:08,400 --> 11:47:15,200 Palanteer is not no surveillance. 14592 11:47:12,640 --> 11:47:17,436 The alternative is worse surveillance 14593 11:47:15,200 --> 11:47:20,480 performed by incompetent government 14594 11:47:17,436 --> 11:47:24,520 bureaucrats using decades old technology 14595 11:47:20,480 --> 11:47:24,520 that does not work properly. 14596 11:47:26,080 --> 11:47:31,040 The critics's response [music] was 14597 11:47:27,680 --> 11:47:32,560 obvious. They told Theo he had built the 14598 11:47:31,040 --> 11:47:36,720 panopticon, 14599 11:47:32,560 --> 11:47:38,800 the architecture of total surveillance. 14600 11:47:36,720 --> 11:47:41,040 A system allowing governments around the 14601 11:47:38,800 --> 11:47:44,000 world to use their citizens information 14602 11:47:41,040 --> 11:47:46,480 to control them, not a system to protect 14603 11:47:44,000 --> 11:47:48,800 them, said the critics. 14604 11:47:46,480 --> 11:47:51,680 Palanteer now operates in dozens of 14605 11:47:48,800 --> 11:47:54,560 countries worldwide. The United States, 14606 11:47:51,680 --> 11:47:57,436 the United Kingdom, Germany, France, 14607 11:47:54,560 --> 11:47:59,596 Australia, and even Japan. 14608 11:47:57,436 --> 11:48:02,640 The company has some controversial 14609 11:47:59,596 --> 11:48:05,596 international clients, some confirmed, 14610 11:48:02,640 --> 11:48:09,116 some alleged, but the total estimated 14611 11:48:05,596 --> 11:48:13,596 value of all global contracts lifetime, 14612 11:48:09,116 --> 11:48:16,400 over $10 billion in contract value. 14613 11:48:13,596 --> 11:48:19,520 Palanteer is Peter Theel's most 14614 11:48:16,400 --> 11:48:22,640 important company. Not because of its 14615 11:48:19,520 --> 11:48:25,040 valuation, though that is substantial. 14616 11:48:22,640 --> 11:48:28,720 Not because of its revenue, though that 14617 11:48:25,040 --> 11:48:31,040 is significant. Palanteer is important 14618 11:48:28,720 --> 11:48:34,000 because it reveals the truth about 14619 11:48:31,040 --> 11:48:36,640 Theo's worldview. It is the bridge 14620 11:48:34,000 --> 11:48:40,320 between his libertarian philosophy and 14621 11:48:36,640 --> 11:48:43,276 his authoritarian reality. He claims to 14622 11:48:40,320 --> 11:48:46,000 want freedom from government control. 14623 11:48:43,276 --> 11:48:47,040 But Palanteer gives governments 14624 11:48:46,000 --> 11:48:49,756 unprecedented [music] 14625 11:48:47,040 --> 11:48:51,520 control over their citizens. The 14626 11:48:49,756 --> 11:48:54,640 resolution of this apparent 14627 11:48:51,520 --> 11:48:58,160 contradiction. Peter the believes in 14628 11:48:54,640 --> 11:49:01,276 freedom for the elite and surveillance 14629 11:48:58,160 --> 11:49:03,520 for everyone else. 14630 11:49:01,276 --> 11:49:06,800 In his vision of the world, there are 14631 11:49:03,520 --> 11:49:08,960 rulers and there are the ruled. There 14632 11:49:06,800 --> 11:49:11,680 are the people who make the decisions 14633 11:49:08,960 --> 11:49:14,240 and the people who are managed. 14634 11:49:11,680 --> 11:49:17,596 Palanteer is the enforcement mechanism 14635 11:49:14,240 --> 11:49:20,880 for that hierarchy. The technology that 14636 11:49:17,596 --> 11:49:23,116 ensures the rulers can see everything. 14637 11:49:20,880 --> 11:49:26,160 the system that makes resistance 14638 11:49:23,116 --> 11:49:29,276 impossible because privacy no longer 14639 11:49:26,160 --> 11:49:32,560 exists. And Peter Theal sits at the 14640 11:49:29,276 --> 11:49:35,680 center of that eye, watching the world, 14641 11:49:32,560 --> 11:49:39,400 seeing everything. The architect of the 14642 11:49:35,680 --> 11:49:39,400 surveillance state. 14643 11:49:41,840 --> 11:49:47,680 In 2016, Peter Theel made an investment 14644 11:49:45,596 --> 11:49:50,880 that every other major technology 14645 11:49:47,680 --> 11:49:53,360 investor avoided. 14646 11:49:50,880 --> 11:49:55,520 While his peers in Silicon Valley were 14647 11:49:53,360 --> 11:49:59,276 contributing millions to the opposing 14648 11:49:55,520 --> 11:50:01,276 campaign, Theel wrote a check for $1.25 14649 11:49:59,276 --> 11:50:03,520 million to Donald Trump's [music] 14650 11:50:01,276 --> 11:50:06,480 presidential campaign. 14651 11:50:03,520 --> 11:50:09,916 This was not ideology. This was 14652 11:50:06,480 --> 11:50:13,040 portfolio diversification. 14653 11:50:09,916 --> 11:50:16,000 Feel has always invested in contrarian 14654 11:50:13,040 --> 11:50:19,520 positions. [music] When everyone zigs, 14655 11:50:16,000 --> 11:50:22,400 he zags. When consensus forms in one 14656 11:50:19,520 --> 11:50:25,840 direction, he looks for asymmetric 14657 11:50:22,400 --> 11:50:27,756 opportunities in the other. The 2006 14658 11:50:25,840 --> 11:50:30,320 donation [music] gave him something 14659 11:50:27,756 --> 11:50:33,136 money usually cannot buy in Silicon 14660 11:50:30,320 --> 11:50:33,840 Valley. Direct access to executive 14661 11:50:33,136 --> 11:50:37,520 [music] 14662 11:50:33,840 --> 11:50:40,000 power. The return on that $1.25 $25 14663 11:50:37,520 --> 11:50:42,640 million investment, 14664 11:50:40,000 --> 11:50:46,080 a seat on the presidential transition 14665 11:50:42,640 --> 11:50:49,276 team, input on federal technology 14666 11:50:46,080 --> 11:50:52,080 policy, direct communication channels to 14667 11:50:49,276 --> 11:50:55,596 the White House, credibility as a 14668 11:50:52,080 --> 11:50:58,240 Washington power broker, 14669 11:50:55,596 --> 11:51:00,000 and most measurably, [music] Palanteer's 14670 11:50:58,240 --> 11:51:03,436 government contracts increased 14671 11:51:00,000 --> 11:51:05,756 substantially during this period. 14672 11:51:03,436 --> 11:51:09,040 But feels most significant political 14673 11:51:05,756 --> 11:51:10,560 investments came in the 2022 midterm 14674 11:51:09,040 --> 11:51:14,320 elections. 14675 11:51:10,560 --> 11:51:17,840 Two candidates, both former employees, 14676 11:51:14,320 --> 11:51:19,756 both running for United States Senate. 14677 11:51:17,840 --> 11:51:22,640 The financial commitment was 14678 11:51:19,756 --> 11:51:25,040 unprecedented in scale. 14679 11:51:22,640 --> 11:51:27,200 Vance had worked at Theel's venture 14680 11:51:25,040 --> 11:51:30,240 capital firm before writing his 14681 11:51:27,200 --> 11:51:32,320 best-selling memoir. Field's total 14682 11:51:30,240 --> 11:51:35,436 financial commitment. 14683 11:51:32,320 --> 11:51:37,200 Direct campaign contribution $15 14684 11:51:35,436 --> 11:51:39,520 million. 14685 11:51:37,200 --> 11:51:43,200 Super PAC expenditures [music] 14686 11:51:39,520 --> 11:51:44,960 $5 million. Combined investment $20 14687 11:51:43,200 --> 11:51:48,160 million. 14688 11:51:44,960 --> 11:51:50,560 This set a record as the largest single 14689 11:51:48,160 --> 11:51:54,080 donor contribution to an individual 14690 11:51:50,560 --> 11:51:57,200 Senate campaign in American history. The 14691 11:51:54,080 --> 11:52:00,880 outcome, Vance won by six percentage 14692 11:51:57,200 --> 11:52:03,680 points. Masters had worked directly for 14693 11:52:00,880 --> 11:52:05,680 Theel as chief operating officer at 14694 11:52:03,680 --> 11:52:07,456 Theel Capital. 14695 11:52:05,680 --> 11:52:09,116 Theel's financial commitment to his 14696 11:52:07,456 --> 11:52:12,160 [music] campaign was a combined 14697 11:52:09,116 --> 11:52:15,436 investment of $20 million, but unlike 14698 11:52:12,160 --> 11:52:16,960 Vance, Masters lost by 5 percentage 14699 11:52:15,436 --> 11:52:20,240 points. 14700 11:52:16,960 --> 11:52:23,116 Theel's total 2022 midterm investment 14701 11:52:20,240 --> 11:52:25,792 was over $40 million in two Senate 14702 11:52:23,116 --> 11:52:27,596 races. Two different candidates that 14703 11:52:25,792 --> 11:52:29,680 [music] would have allowed him to be in 14704 11:52:27,596 --> 11:52:33,040 direct touch with power at different 14705 11:52:29,680 --> 11:52:35,116 chambers and stages. For context, the 14706 11:52:33,040 --> 11:52:38,560 average competitive Senate [music] race 14707 11:52:35,116 --> 11:52:40,856 costs approximately $10 million total. 14708 11:52:38,560 --> 11:52:45,000 Peter Theal invested four times that 14709 11:52:40,856 --> 11:52:45,000 [music] amount on two races. 14710 11:52:45,680 --> 11:52:52,400 It's July 2024. JD Vance is selected as 14711 11:52:50,240 --> 11:52:55,276 the Republican vice presidential 14712 11:52:52,400 --> 11:52:57,916 candidate. From a pure investment 14713 11:52:55,276 --> 11:53:00,880 analysis perspective, this transforms 14714 11:52:57,916 --> 11:53:03,360 the return profile on Theo's $20 million 14715 11:53:00,880 --> 11:53:05,680 commitment. He has considered the 14716 11:53:03,360 --> 11:53:09,596 potential financial implications if this 14717 11:53:05,680 --> 11:53:12,160 ticket wins and he gets access to 14718 11:53:09,596 --> 11:53:15,520 executive branch decisionmaking for 8 14719 11:53:12,160 --> 11:53:18,960 years. influence over federal contract 14720 11:53:15,520 --> 11:53:21,916 allocation across multiple agencies. 14721 11:53:18,960 --> 11:53:26,160 Input on technology regulation affecting 14722 11:53:21,916 --> 11:53:28,016 the portfolio [music] companies. 14723 11:53:26,160 --> 11:53:29,840 If we consider what's the estimated 14724 11:53:28,016 --> 11:53:32,480 [music] return on investment for 14725 11:53:29,840 --> 11:53:35,756 Palanteer's government business, what we 14726 11:53:32,480 --> 11:53:38,960 see is current annual government revenue 14727 11:53:35,756 --> 11:53:41,680 of $1.5 billion. 14728 11:53:38,960 --> 11:53:44,960 potential additional contract value over 14729 11:53:41,680 --> 11:53:47,960 eight years conservatively 5 to10 14730 11:53:44,960 --> 11:53:47,960 billion 14731 11:53:48,000 --> 11:53:54,640 and other defense companies in the 14732 11:53:51,040 --> 11:53:56,320 network potential 3 to5 billion in 14733 11:53:54,640 --> 11:53:58,800 contracts 14734 11:53:56,320 --> 11:54:01,436 regulatory treatment of cryptocurrency 14735 11:53:58,800 --> 11:54:05,320 holdings value potentially in [music] 14736 11:54:01,436 --> 11:54:05,320 tens of billions. 14737 11:54:07,040 --> 11:54:13,116 The theoretical return of those 20 14738 11:54:09,596 --> 11:54:16,480 million invested is potentially 15 to 20 14739 11:54:13,116 --> 11:54:18,880 billion captured across the portfolio. 14740 11:54:16,480 --> 11:54:23,200 That represents [music] a potential of 14741 11:54:18,880 --> 11:54:25,200 750 to 1,000 times return. By 14742 11:54:23,200 --> 11:54:28,800 comparison, Theel's Facebook [music] 14743 11:54:25,200 --> 11:54:31,276 investment returned 2,000 times. 14744 11:54:28,800 --> 11:54:36,640 To sum it up, the complete political 14745 11:54:31,276 --> 11:54:38,960 spending of the from 2016 to 2022 is 70 14746 11:54:36,640 --> 11:54:41,520 to $80 million. 14747 11:54:38,960 --> 11:54:44,400 For context, Amazon spends 20 [music] 14748 11:54:41,520 --> 11:54:47,436 million annually on lobbying. Meta 14749 11:54:44,400 --> 11:54:49,276 spends 20 million annual on lobbying. 14750 11:54:47,436 --> 11:54:52,560 Google spends 12 [music] million 14751 11:54:49,276 --> 11:54:55,276 annually on lobbying. Field's approach 14752 11:54:52,560 --> 11:54:57,680 is different. Rather than ongoing 14753 11:54:55,276 --> 11:55:00,160 lobbying expenditures, he makes 14754 11:54:57,680 --> 11:55:00,160 concentrated1095558

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