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Would you like to inspect the original subtitles? These are the user uploaded subtitles that are being translated: 1 00:00:03,003 --> 00:00:05,405 (grand orchestral fanfare playing) 2 00:00:27,795 --> 00:00:30,163 ♪ ♪ 3 00:00:41,843 --> 00:00:44,144 (birds chirping and calling) 4 00:00:49,216 --> 00:00:51,519 -(burbling) -(trilling) 5 00:00:55,657 --> 00:00:58,058 (VCR clicking and whirring) 6 00:01:01,194 --> 00:01:02,630 (projector clicking) 7 00:01:05,332 --> 00:01:09,637 Now, the present-day computers are complete morons, 8 00:01:09,671 --> 00:01:12,507 but this will not be true in another generation. 9 00:01:12,540 --> 00:01:15,342 They will start to think, and eventually they will 10 00:01:15,375 --> 00:01:17,845 completely outthink their makers. 11 00:01:17,879 --> 00:01:20,582 Is this depressing? I don't see why it should be. 12 00:01:20,615 --> 00:01:25,352 I suspect that organic or biological evolution 13 00:01:25,385 --> 00:01:27,220 has about come to its end. 14 00:01:28,322 --> 00:01:29,791 (Daniel chuckles) 15 00:01:29,824 --> 00:01:31,224 CAROLINE: You don't want me to be the narrator. 16 00:01:31,258 --> 00:01:32,694 I don't have a good voice. 17 00:01:32,727 --> 00:01:34,461 DANIEL: You have a great voice. Just do it. 18 00:01:34,494 --> 00:01:36,598 It's just a-- we're just trying it out. 19 00:01:36,631 --> 00:01:38,432 CAROLINE: Do I get paid for this shit? 20 00:01:38,465 --> 00:01:40,768 DANIEL (laughing): Well, we'll see how well you do. 21 00:01:40,802 --> 00:01:42,202 (Caroline laughing) 22 00:01:42,235 --> 00:01:44,304 -♪ ♪ -(dog barks) 23 00:01:46,908 --> 00:01:48,576 CAROLINE: I need to call my parents. 24 00:01:48,610 --> 00:01:49,309 (engine starts) 25 00:01:49,343 --> 00:01:51,478 Sometimes we rush into things 26 00:01:51,512 --> 00:01:53,347 without thinking them through. 27 00:01:53,380 --> 00:01:54,916 DANIEL: Yeah, can you sh... you want to shoot? That's... 28 00:01:54,949 --> 00:01:57,752 CAROLINE: Like when Daniel and Caroline got married 29 00:01:57,785 --> 00:02:00,755 151 days after they met. 30 00:02:00,788 --> 00:02:02,523 Let's rewind. 31 00:02:03,691 --> 00:02:05,325 (applause) 32 00:02:05,359 --> 00:02:07,562 Have you been thinking about buying a home computer? 33 00:02:07,595 --> 00:02:09,631 CAROLINE: In 1993, when Daniel was born, 34 00:02:09,664 --> 00:02:12,533 his parents didn't even have a computer in the house. 35 00:02:12,567 --> 00:02:14,334 But he remembers when they finally got one. 36 00:02:14,368 --> 00:02:16,269 What a computer is to me is 37 00:02:16,303 --> 00:02:18,873 the equivalent of a bicycle for our minds. 38 00:02:18,906 --> 00:02:20,608 Hello. 39 00:02:20,642 --> 00:02:22,777 CAROLINE: His computer helped unleash his creativity. 40 00:02:22,810 --> 00:02:24,411 DANIEL: Rolling. Go. 41 00:02:24,444 --> 00:02:27,247 CAROLINE: He used his dad's iMac to edit videos. 42 00:02:27,280 --> 00:02:28,650 Yeah! 43 00:02:28,683 --> 00:02:30,618 CAROLINE: And even make little animations. 44 00:02:30,652 --> 00:02:32,419 (tires squealing, crash) 45 00:02:32,452 --> 00:02:35,690 In 1998, when Caroline was a little girl... 46 00:02:35,723 --> 00:02:37,290 Hi, Mommy. 47 00:02:37,324 --> 00:02:38,593 ...only nerds knew what the Internet was. 48 00:02:38,626 --> 00:02:40,360 And what about this Internet thing? 49 00:02:40,394 --> 00:02:41,696 -Do you, do you know anything about that? -Sure. 50 00:02:41,729 --> 00:02:43,330 -(audience laughter) -CAROLINE: But soon, 51 00:02:43,363 --> 00:02:45,399 -everyone was on the... -...Internets. 52 00:02:45,432 --> 00:02:47,467 ...and computers were beating humans at chess. 53 00:02:47,502 --> 00:02:50,470 ANNOUNCER: Deep Blue-- Kasparov has resigned! 54 00:02:50,505 --> 00:02:52,874 CAROLINE: And by the time Caroline went to college, 55 00:02:52,907 --> 00:02:55,543 computers were in everyone's pocket. 56 00:02:55,576 --> 00:02:58,713 Now Daniel could make movies with his phone. 57 00:02:58,746 --> 00:03:02,215 He grew up to be an artist and a filmmaker... 58 00:03:02,249 --> 00:03:04,418 -Good night. -...and so did Caroline. 59 00:03:04,451 --> 00:03:06,286 Cut. Let's go into a close-up. That was perfect. 60 00:03:06,319 --> 00:03:07,822 By then, computers were connecting people 61 00:03:07,855 --> 00:03:09,456 and changing the world in ways 62 00:03:09,489 --> 00:03:10,925 that we never could have imagined. 63 00:03:10,958 --> 00:03:12,694 All the money raised by the Ice Bucket Challenge... 64 00:03:12,727 --> 00:03:14,796 CAROLINE: Some of it was good. 65 00:03:14,829 --> 00:03:15,963 (gasping) 66 00:03:15,997 --> 00:03:17,565 Some not so good. 67 00:03:17,598 --> 00:03:19,701 Anxiety, self-harm, suicide... 68 00:03:19,734 --> 00:03:21,602 But it's clear now that we didn't do enough 69 00:03:21,636 --> 00:03:24,839 to prevent these tools from being used for harm as well. 70 00:03:24,872 --> 00:03:26,741 CAROLINE: And as the world got more and more focused 71 00:03:26,774 --> 00:03:28,543 -on their computers, -(phone dings) 72 00:03:28,576 --> 00:03:31,211 Daniel focused on his artwork. 73 00:03:32,312 --> 00:03:36,249 Wherever he went, he always had a sketchbook, 74 00:03:36,283 --> 00:03:38,720 including the night he met Caroline. 75 00:03:38,753 --> 00:03:41,923 He drew a terrible picture of her, and 20 minutes later, 76 00:03:41,956 --> 00:03:44,592 he boldly pronounced they were going to get married, 77 00:03:44,625 --> 00:03:47,862 which, as you know, they did, 151 days later. 78 00:03:47,895 --> 00:03:50,464 WOMAN: ...now pronounce you husband and wife. 79 00:03:50,497 --> 00:03:51,933 CAROLINE: They moved into a cute house... 80 00:03:51,966 --> 00:03:53,433 -DANIEL: Moose, hey! Come here! -...and got a dog 81 00:03:53,467 --> 00:03:54,936 as dumb as Daniel. 82 00:03:54,969 --> 00:03:57,872 Meanwhile, computers were writing entire essays 83 00:03:57,905 --> 00:03:59,707 based on simple questions like, 84 00:03:59,741 --> 00:04:02,777 "How hard would it be to build a shack in my backyard?" 85 00:04:03,443 --> 00:04:06,514 And so Daniel built a shack in his backyard. 86 00:04:07,380 --> 00:04:10,317 But just as he sat down to start working on his next movie, 87 00:04:10,350 --> 00:04:14,488 he learned that computers could now write screenplays. 88 00:04:15,422 --> 00:04:16,891 I mean, they were bad, 89 00:04:16,924 --> 00:04:19,326 but they were getting better really fast. 90 00:04:19,359 --> 00:04:21,929 They could create new images and videos from scratch, 91 00:04:21,963 --> 00:04:25,032 and some of them could even pass the bar exam. 92 00:04:25,066 --> 00:04:29,402 Not just pass the bar but be in the top ten percentile. 93 00:04:29,436 --> 00:04:31,038 CAROLINE: It was confusing. 94 00:04:31,072 --> 00:04:32,607 (sighs) 95 00:04:32,640 --> 00:04:35,543 Daniel just wanted a bicycle for his mind, 96 00:04:35,576 --> 00:04:39,080 but computers had become a self-driving rocket ship. 97 00:04:39,113 --> 00:04:40,648 (whooshing) 98 00:04:40,681 --> 00:04:42,517 ("We R in Control" by Neil Young playing) 99 00:04:42,550 --> 00:04:45,385 Pioneers in the field of artificial intelligence 100 00:04:45,418 --> 00:04:46,821 are pleading with Congress 101 00:04:46,854 --> 00:04:48,856 to pass safety rules before it's too late. 102 00:04:48,890 --> 00:04:50,858 CAROLINE: Now it felt like the whole world 103 00:04:50,892 --> 00:04:53,528 was rushing into something without thinking it through, 104 00:04:53,561 --> 00:04:55,830 and everyone had an opinion. 105 00:04:56,564 --> 00:05:00,635 Was it gonna destroy the world or save humanity? 106 00:05:00,668 --> 00:05:02,804 There was too much information, 107 00:05:02,837 --> 00:05:05,106 which made him anxious, which made Caroline anxious... 108 00:05:05,139 --> 00:05:06,541 (exasperated scream) 109 00:05:06,574 --> 00:05:08,042 I don't have kids yet, but I worry 110 00:05:08,075 --> 00:05:10,645 what the world would look like if I decide to. (chuckles) 111 00:05:10,678 --> 00:05:12,947 CAROLINE: He was starting to spin out. 112 00:05:12,980 --> 00:05:14,549 (indistinct chatter) 113 00:05:14,582 --> 00:05:17,685 It was becoming a mountain of anxiety. 114 00:05:19,620 --> 00:05:22,322 -MAN: It's horrible. -It's freakin' Siri. 115 00:05:23,124 --> 00:05:25,893 CAROLINE: And so, Daniel decided to go out 116 00:05:25,927 --> 00:05:28,529 and find someone who could explain this to him, 117 00:05:28,563 --> 00:05:30,631 so he could stop thinking about it 118 00:05:30,665 --> 00:05:33,835 and he and Caroline could get on with their lives. 119 00:05:33,868 --> 00:05:37,437 ♪ We are in control, we are in control ♪ 120 00:05:37,470 --> 00:05:39,006 ♪ We are in control ♪ 121 00:05:39,040 --> 00:05:41,042 ♪ Chemical computer thinking battery ♪ 122 00:05:41,075 --> 00:05:42,877 ♪ We are in control, we are... ♪ 123 00:05:42,910 --> 00:05:45,980 This endeavor would turn out to be hopelessly naive 124 00:05:46,013 --> 00:05:49,584 and kick off the most confusing year of his life. 125 00:05:49,617 --> 00:05:50,985 ♪ We are in control... ♪ 126 00:05:51,018 --> 00:05:53,420 But as we know, we sometimes rush into things 127 00:05:53,453 --> 00:05:54,956 without thinking them through. 128 00:05:54,989 --> 00:05:56,791 ♪ Chemical computer thinking battery... ♪ 129 00:05:56,824 --> 00:05:58,491 Oh, my gosh. What is happening? 130 00:05:58,526 --> 00:06:00,127 CAROLINE: He had questions. 131 00:06:00,161 --> 00:06:02,096 Questions only the smartest nerds could answer. 132 00:06:02,129 --> 00:06:04,665 Submitting to the interrogator. 133 00:06:04,699 --> 00:06:06,399 CAROLINE: Questions like: 134 00:06:06,433 --> 00:06:09,103 Was this the apocalypse or did he actually have reason 135 00:06:09,136 --> 00:06:10,705 -to be optimistic? -Yes. 136 00:06:11,305 --> 00:06:14,407 -♪ Chemical computer thinking battery. ♪ -(song ends) 137 00:06:14,441 --> 00:06:16,677 CAROLINE: Uh, is that good? 138 00:06:16,711 --> 00:06:18,112 DANIEL: Yeah. 139 00:06:18,145 --> 00:06:20,648 So, to begin, 140 00:06:20,681 --> 00:06:22,482 what is artificial intelligence? 141 00:06:22,516 --> 00:06:25,152 I know that must be annoying for you, that-that question, 142 00:06:25,186 --> 00:06:27,021 but I do think it's important. 143 00:06:27,054 --> 00:06:30,423 So... AI... 144 00:06:30,457 --> 00:06:32,459 (stammers) Um... 145 00:06:32,492 --> 00:06:34,161 -Yeah... -Uh, hmm. 146 00:06:34,195 --> 00:06:35,196 (laughs): That's a good question. 147 00:06:35,229 --> 00:06:36,697 -Yeah, um... -Um... 148 00:06:36,731 --> 00:06:38,165 DANIEL: What is AI? 149 00:06:38,199 --> 00:06:39,634 (laughs) 150 00:06:39,667 --> 00:06:41,035 I love that that's the first question, 151 00:06:41,068 --> 00:06:43,671 'cause there is not a clear and consistent answer. 152 00:06:43,704 --> 00:06:45,740 Artificial intelligence is 153 00:06:45,773 --> 00:06:51,178 a kind of intentionally and maybe uselessly broad term. 154 00:06:51,212 --> 00:06:53,781 DAVID EVAN HARRIS: It's a machine 155 00:06:53,814 --> 00:06:56,083 doing things that we previously only thought 156 00:06:56,117 --> 00:06:57,718 that people could do: 157 00:06:57,752 --> 00:07:01,656 making recommendations, decisions and predictions. 158 00:07:01,689 --> 00:07:07,228 AI is the, uh, application of computer science 159 00:07:07,261 --> 00:07:09,664 to solving cognitive problems. 160 00:07:09,697 --> 00:07:13,768 Okay, so when I picture AI, 161 00:07:13,801 --> 00:07:17,204 it's sort of like this magical computer box... 162 00:07:17,238 --> 00:07:19,640 ♪ ♪ 163 00:07:20,708 --> 00:07:24,645 ...just, like, floating in, like, inert space. 164 00:07:24,679 --> 00:07:26,847 And no matter how many times people try 165 00:07:26,881 --> 00:07:30,051 and explain this to me, I just don't get how... 166 00:07:30,084 --> 00:07:32,887 how it's understanding all of these things 167 00:07:32,920 --> 00:07:36,190 and how it's feeling like intelligence. 168 00:07:36,223 --> 00:07:37,692 (beeping, electronic chattering) 169 00:07:37,725 --> 00:07:39,927 And that's kind of nerve-racking. 170 00:07:41,729 --> 00:07:46,499 AZA RASKIN: What is this new generation of AI? 171 00:07:47,535 --> 00:07:50,638 This AI that is different than every other generation? 172 00:07:50,671 --> 00:07:53,040 Like, no one ever talked about, like, 173 00:07:53,074 --> 00:07:57,545 Siri taking over the world or causing catastrophes. 174 00:07:57,578 --> 00:07:59,080 -WOMAN: Hi, Siri? -MAN: ...want to. 175 00:07:59,113 --> 00:08:01,115 WOMAN: Hello? Siri? 176 00:08:01,148 --> 00:08:02,984 Hello? Hey, Siri! 177 00:08:03,017 --> 00:08:06,253 Or the voice in Google Maps, which mispronounces road names, 178 00:08:06,287 --> 00:08:07,888 like, breaking society. 179 00:08:07,922 --> 00:08:10,992 MAN: Google Maps says this is a road. 180 00:08:11,025 --> 00:08:13,627 (laughing): But I think I'm in a river. 181 00:08:13,661 --> 00:08:14,996 This is definitely a river, innit? 182 00:08:15,029 --> 00:08:17,898 Something changed with ChatGPT coming out. 183 00:08:18,532 --> 00:08:20,568 People understood-- no, no, no-- 184 00:08:20,601 --> 00:08:21,869 this technology's insanely valuable, 185 00:08:21,902 --> 00:08:24,005 it's insanely powerful and also insanely scary. 186 00:08:24,038 --> 00:08:25,940 Okay, listen to this. Very creepy. 187 00:08:25,973 --> 00:08:28,976 A new artificial intelligence tool is going viral 188 00:08:29,010 --> 00:08:32,980 for cranking out entire essays in a matter of seconds. 189 00:08:36,217 --> 00:08:41,722 AI dwarfs the power of all other technologies combined. 190 00:08:41,756 --> 00:08:44,058 DANIEL: "AI dwarfs the power 191 00:08:44,091 --> 00:08:46,827 of all other technologies combined." 192 00:08:46,861 --> 00:08:47,762 Yeah. 193 00:08:47,795 --> 00:08:49,230 Do you think that's true? 194 00:08:49,263 --> 00:08:51,265 Yes. 195 00:08:51,298 --> 00:08:53,567 Tell me about-- How? How? 196 00:08:53,601 --> 00:08:57,038 I think, to paint that picture, it's really important 197 00:08:57,071 --> 00:09:01,175 to understand what today's state-of-the-art systems 198 00:09:01,208 --> 00:09:02,777 look like and how they're built. 199 00:09:02,810 --> 00:09:06,280 (laughs) This is quite a... quite a setup. 200 00:09:06,313 --> 00:09:07,782 So, one thing that 201 00:09:07,815 --> 00:09:10,051 not a lot of people realize is that 202 00:09:10,084 --> 00:09:14,221 systems like ChatGPT aren't programmed by any human. 203 00:09:14,255 --> 00:09:15,756 What do you mean? 204 00:09:15,790 --> 00:09:17,625 Instead, it's something like th-they're grown. 205 00:09:17,658 --> 00:09:19,727 We kind of give them raw resources, like, 206 00:09:19,760 --> 00:09:21,629 "Here's a lot of computational resources. 207 00:09:21,662 --> 00:09:22,730 Here's a lot of data." 208 00:09:22,763 --> 00:09:24,165 Under the hood, it's math, 209 00:09:24,198 --> 00:09:27,668 and the math is actually surprisingly straightforward. 210 00:09:27,701 --> 00:09:31,672 DANIEL: So ChatGPT is a kind of AI but it's not all of AI? 211 00:09:31,705 --> 00:09:33,207 Totally. ChatGPT is just the beginning, 212 00:09:33,240 --> 00:09:34,675 but it's a good place to start. 213 00:09:34,708 --> 00:09:38,145 But I still don't know what AI is. 214 00:09:38,179 --> 00:09:40,848 To understand AI, it begins with understanding 215 00:09:40,881 --> 00:09:43,717 that intelligence is about recognizing patterns. 216 00:09:43,751 --> 00:09:45,186 -Patterns. -Patterns. -Patterns. 217 00:09:45,219 --> 00:09:48,956 COTRA: It is shown trillions of words of text 218 00:09:48,989 --> 00:09:51,826 across millions of documents in the Internet. 219 00:09:51,859 --> 00:09:53,127 RANDIMA FERNANDO: It started with text. 220 00:09:53,160 --> 00:09:56,197 And what they did was they took textbooks, 221 00:09:56,230 --> 00:09:59,967 and they took poems and essays and instruction manuals. 222 00:10:00,000 --> 00:10:01,368 DAVID EVAN HARRIS: They can do things like 223 00:10:01,402 --> 00:10:03,370 digest the entire Internet, 224 00:10:03,404 --> 00:10:07,108 every single word that's ever been written by a person. 225 00:10:07,141 --> 00:10:10,244 Reddit threads and social media and all of Wikipedia. 226 00:10:10,277 --> 00:10:14,048 More data than anybody could ever read in several lifetimes. 227 00:10:14,081 --> 00:10:15,950 And they gave this system one job. 228 00:10:15,983 --> 00:10:18,953 Figure out the patterns and structure of that information 229 00:10:18,986 --> 00:10:21,122 and use that to make predictions about 230 00:10:21,155 --> 00:10:23,791 what word should come next in a sentence. 231 00:10:23,824 --> 00:10:25,426 When you say "patterns in a sentence," 232 00:10:25,459 --> 00:10:27,128 what are you talking about? 233 00:10:27,161 --> 00:10:29,864 So, it's everything from, like, the really simple things, 234 00:10:29,897 --> 00:10:32,266 like most sentences end with a period, 235 00:10:32,299 --> 00:10:35,402 all the way up to the more conceptual things, like: 236 00:10:35,436 --> 00:10:37,138 What is a sonnet? 237 00:10:37,171 --> 00:10:39,039 It's a type of poem, and it has some particular structure. 238 00:10:39,707 --> 00:10:41,809 RASKIN: So, it then looks at 239 00:10:41,842 --> 00:10:44,011 all of that data, all of that text... 240 00:10:44,044 --> 00:10:46,313 COTRA: And over trillions and trillions of tries, 241 00:10:46,347 --> 00:10:49,150 each time it gets something right or wrong, 242 00:10:49,183 --> 00:10:51,819 it's given a little bit of positive reinforcement 243 00:10:51,852 --> 00:10:53,888 when it guesses the next word correctly, 244 00:10:53,921 --> 00:10:56,090 and it's given a little bit of negative reinforcement 245 00:10:56,123 --> 00:10:58,926 when it guesses the next word incorrectly. 246 00:10:59,727 --> 00:11:02,029 And at the end of it, you have a system that 247 00:11:02,062 --> 00:11:05,332 speaks really good English as a side effect 248 00:11:05,366 --> 00:11:07,168 of being really, really good at predicting 249 00:11:07,201 --> 00:11:09,103 the word that comes next in a piece of text. 250 00:11:09,136 --> 00:11:11,972 (automated voice speaking French) 251 00:11:12,006 --> 00:11:14,308 It uses all of those patterns it has learned 252 00:11:14,341 --> 00:11:16,277 to be able to make a prediction about 253 00:11:16,310 --> 00:11:17,811 what the answer should be, 254 00:11:17,845 --> 00:11:19,180 then it gives you that as the output. 255 00:11:19,213 --> 00:11:21,482 AUTOMATED VOICE: It's a little oversimplified, 256 00:11:21,516 --> 00:11:23,717 but I think people will get it. 257 00:11:23,751 --> 00:11:25,252 So, so that's all it does? 258 00:11:25,286 --> 00:11:27,354 Yeah. It doesn't seem like it would be that complicated, 259 00:11:27,388 --> 00:11:28,489 but actually you have to know 260 00:11:28,523 --> 00:11:30,057 a huge amount of things 261 00:11:30,090 --> 00:11:32,092 in order to actually succeed at that. 262 00:11:32,793 --> 00:11:34,461 RASKIN: If you say to ChatGPT, 263 00:11:34,495 --> 00:11:37,131 "Write me a Shakespearean sonnet about my dog," 264 00:11:37,164 --> 00:11:39,166 it has to know what dogs are. 265 00:11:39,200 --> 00:11:40,935 -It has to know what you love about your dog. -(barking) 266 00:11:40,968 --> 00:11:43,304 It has to know who Shakespeare is, 267 00:11:43,337 --> 00:11:46,040 that sonnets rhyme, that they have a structure, 268 00:11:46,073 --> 00:11:48,342 that words have sounds that can rhyme. 269 00:11:48,375 --> 00:11:49,843 It takes a lot. 270 00:11:49,877 --> 00:11:51,212 (voices overlapping in various languages) 271 00:11:51,245 --> 00:11:53,280 Holy shit, you can talk to your computer now. 272 00:11:53,314 --> 00:11:56,350 That was just not true three years ago. 273 00:11:56,383 --> 00:11:58,085 RASKIN: Yes, and this is the really important part. 274 00:11:58,118 --> 00:12:01,055 The same process that lets AI 275 00:12:01,088 --> 00:12:03,490 uncover and manipulate the patterns of text 276 00:12:03,525 --> 00:12:06,160 is the same process that lets it uncover 277 00:12:06,193 --> 00:12:10,231 the patterns of the entire universe and everything in it. 278 00:12:10,831 --> 00:12:13,234 FERNANDO: There are patterns and images and sound 279 00:12:13,267 --> 00:12:16,470 in computer code and DNA and music and physics 280 00:12:16,504 --> 00:12:18,973 and fashion and building design 281 00:12:19,006 --> 00:12:22,042 (distorted): and in human voices and human faces, 282 00:12:22,076 --> 00:12:24,245 (normally): really, truly everywhere. 283 00:12:24,278 --> 00:12:26,347 -Everywhere. -Everywhere. -Everywhere. -Everywhere. 284 00:12:26,380 --> 00:12:28,182 If you have learned those patterns, 285 00:12:28,215 --> 00:12:30,117 you can generate new kinds of songs. 286 00:12:30,150 --> 00:12:31,785 You can generate new videos. 287 00:12:31,819 --> 00:12:33,087 And that's why, if you give it 288 00:12:33,120 --> 00:12:35,322 a three-second recording of your grandmother, 289 00:12:35,356 --> 00:12:37,224 it can speak back in her voice. 290 00:12:37,258 --> 00:12:38,092 Oh, my God. 291 00:12:38,125 --> 00:12:41,061 (repeating): Oh, my God. Oh, my God. 292 00:12:41,095 --> 00:12:43,397 What will they think of next? 293 00:12:43,430 --> 00:12:44,532 It's moving very, very quickly. 294 00:12:44,566 --> 00:12:46,400 An American AI start-up 295 00:12:46,433 --> 00:12:48,068 has released its latest model. 296 00:12:48,102 --> 00:12:51,171 That company is Anthropic, and it has just unveiled 297 00:12:51,205 --> 00:12:54,174 the latest versions of its AI assistant Claude. 298 00:12:54,208 --> 00:12:57,411 GLENN BECK: So, the xAI team was there to unveil Grok 4. 299 00:12:57,444 --> 00:13:00,414 MAN: Google released one just last week. Gemini is... 300 00:13:00,447 --> 00:13:03,417 We've gone from GPT-2 just a couple years ago, 301 00:13:03,450 --> 00:13:06,020 which could barely write a coherent paragraph, 302 00:13:06,053 --> 00:13:08,322 to GPT-4, which can pass the bar exam. 303 00:13:08,355 --> 00:13:10,924 And all they had to do to get there 304 00:13:10,958 --> 00:13:13,294 was essentially add more data and more compute. 305 00:13:13,327 --> 00:13:16,897 -These people who are building this... -COTRA: Yeah. 306 00:13:16,930 --> 00:13:18,332 ...they're just throwing more... 307 00:13:18,365 --> 00:13:22,236 More physical computers, more of the same kinds of data. 308 00:13:22,269 --> 00:13:25,039 Because the more computing power you add, 309 00:13:25,072 --> 00:13:28,375 the more complex intellectual tasks they can do. 310 00:13:28,409 --> 00:13:30,444 So, the more weather data you give it, 311 00:13:30,477 --> 00:13:32,446 the better it can make predictions about 312 00:13:32,479 --> 00:13:34,448 where a hurricane might go. 313 00:13:34,481 --> 00:13:36,584 RASKIN: And the more patterns of tumors and bones 314 00:13:36,618 --> 00:13:39,253 and tissues an AI has seen, then the better able it is 315 00:13:39,286 --> 00:13:42,489 to detect a tumor in a new CT scan. 316 00:13:42,524 --> 00:13:44,124 Better even than a human doctor. 317 00:13:44,158 --> 00:13:47,328 AI that's already being deployed for the military 318 00:13:47,361 --> 00:13:49,463 can already use satellite imagery, 319 00:13:49,496 --> 00:13:52,199 troop movements, communications to determine, 320 00:13:52,232 --> 00:13:53,934 -sometimes days in advance, -(civil defense siren blaring) 321 00:13:53,967 --> 00:13:55,336 where an attack is going to happen, 322 00:13:55,369 --> 00:13:57,605 like where an enemy is going to strike. 323 00:13:57,639 --> 00:14:00,007 TRISTAN HARRIS: This whole space is moving so fast 324 00:14:00,040 --> 00:14:02,142 that any example you put in this movie 325 00:14:02,176 --> 00:14:05,112 will feel absolutely clumsy by the time it comes out. 326 00:14:05,145 --> 00:14:07,348 (beeping, clicking) 327 00:14:09,950 --> 00:14:11,653 -(applause) -(upbeat music playing) 328 00:14:11,686 --> 00:14:14,421 RASKIN: These models are being released 329 00:14:14,455 --> 00:14:17,391 before anyone knows what they're even capable of. 330 00:14:17,424 --> 00:14:22,896 GPT-3.5 was released and out to 100 million people plus 331 00:14:22,930 --> 00:14:26,333 before some researchers discovered that it could do 332 00:14:26,367 --> 00:14:29,203 research-grade chemistry better than models 333 00:14:29,236 --> 00:14:33,240 that were trained specifically to do research-grade chemistry. 334 00:14:33,273 --> 00:14:36,009 Something is happening in there that the people 335 00:14:36,043 --> 00:14:38,546 who are building them don't fully understand. 336 00:14:38,580 --> 00:14:41,348 Basically, it just analyzes the data by itself, 337 00:14:41,382 --> 00:14:45,419 and as it does that, it just teaches itself 338 00:14:45,452 --> 00:14:48,355 various things that we often didn't intend. 339 00:14:48,389 --> 00:14:50,324 So, for instance, it reads a lot online, 340 00:14:50,357 --> 00:14:53,127 and then at some point, it just learns how to do arithmetic. 341 00:14:53,160 --> 00:14:54,662 KIDS: One, two. 342 00:14:54,696 --> 00:14:56,463 HENDRYCKS: And then at some point, it starts to learn 343 00:14:56,497 --> 00:14:59,099 how to answer advanced physics questions. 344 00:14:59,133 --> 00:15:01,268 We didn't program that in it whatsoever. 345 00:15:01,301 --> 00:15:03,203 It just learned by itself. 346 00:15:05,640 --> 00:15:07,709 TRISTAN HARRIS: An AI is like a digital brain. 347 00:15:07,742 --> 00:15:09,176 But just like a human brain, 348 00:15:09,209 --> 00:15:11,078 if you did a brain scan on a human brain, 349 00:15:11,111 --> 00:15:13,447 would you know everything that person was capable of? 350 00:15:13,480 --> 00:15:15,482 You can't know that just from the brain scan. 351 00:15:15,517 --> 00:15:18,318 It's just, like, a bunch of numbers and, like, 352 00:15:18,352 --> 00:15:20,522 the multiplications that are happening that-that, like, 353 00:15:20,555 --> 00:15:22,524 the best machine learning researcher in the world 354 00:15:22,557 --> 00:15:25,159 could look at and, like, have no idea what was happening. 355 00:15:31,398 --> 00:15:33,200 DANIEL: That chair right there. 356 00:15:33,233 --> 00:15:35,469 -Is that okay for you? -Yes. 357 00:15:36,136 --> 00:15:38,172 DANIEL: So, that's kind of mind-boggling. 358 00:15:38,205 --> 00:15:39,440 Okay? Like, it's taking over the world, 359 00:15:39,473 --> 00:15:41,609 and we don't even know how it works. 360 00:15:41,643 --> 00:15:43,477 -Is that right? -Mm. 361 00:15:43,511 --> 00:15:47,381 We do understand a number of important things, 362 00:15:47,414 --> 00:15:51,051 but we don't have a very good grasp on 363 00:15:51,084 --> 00:15:53,521 why they provide specific answers to questions. 364 00:15:53,555 --> 00:15:58,992 It is a problem because we are on a path t-to build machines, 365 00:15:59,026 --> 00:16:03,531 based on these principles, that could be smarter than us 366 00:16:03,565 --> 00:16:07,067 and thus potentially have a lot of power. 367 00:16:12,774 --> 00:16:15,610 One of the most cited computer scientists in history. 368 00:16:15,643 --> 00:16:17,545 SUTSKEVER: I actually find it a little difficult 369 00:16:17,579 --> 00:16:19,079 to talk about my own role. 370 00:16:19,112 --> 00:16:21,448 Really much prefer when other people do it. 371 00:16:21,482 --> 00:16:24,351 Ilya joining was the... was-was the linchpin for 372 00:16:24,384 --> 00:16:26,086 OpenAI being ultimately successful. 373 00:16:26,119 --> 00:16:27,522 I think it's just going to be 374 00:16:27,555 --> 00:16:31,158 some kind of a vast, dramatic and unimaginable impact. 375 00:16:31,191 --> 00:16:33,327 I don't know if you've spent any time on YouTube, 376 00:16:33,360 --> 00:16:35,563 but you can kind of feel the speed already, right? 377 00:16:35,597 --> 00:16:36,764 You know what I mean? 378 00:16:36,798 --> 00:16:38,633 SHANE LEGG: This is just the warmup. 379 00:16:38,666 --> 00:16:41,068 The really powerful systems are still coming, 380 00:16:41,101 --> 00:16:43,136 and they're gonna be coming quite soon. 381 00:16:48,408 --> 00:16:52,145 AGI stands for "artificial general intelligence." 382 00:16:52,179 --> 00:16:54,481 Uh, systems that are basically... 383 00:16:58,553 --> 00:17:00,755 And this is, like, you know, seems to be, like, 384 00:17:00,788 --> 00:17:03,525 the holy grail of AI? 385 00:17:03,558 --> 00:17:05,527 When you can simulate a human mind 386 00:17:05,560 --> 00:17:08,362 that is doing human cognition and can do reasoning, 387 00:17:08,395 --> 00:17:11,398 that is a new sort of tier of AI 388 00:17:11,431 --> 00:17:14,602 that we have to distinguish from previous AI. 389 00:17:14,636 --> 00:17:16,804 When that happens, by the way, that's when 390 00:17:16,838 --> 00:17:21,475 you would hire one of those AGIs instead of a person. 391 00:17:21,509 --> 00:17:25,112 Most jobs in our economy it can do. 392 00:17:25,145 --> 00:17:26,380 It can work 24 hours a day, 393 00:17:26,413 --> 00:17:28,550 never gets tired, never gets bored. 394 00:17:28,583 --> 00:17:30,552 They don't need to sleep. They don't need breaks. 395 00:17:30,585 --> 00:17:32,352 They're, like, not gonna join a union. 396 00:17:32,386 --> 00:17:34,388 Won't complain, won't whistleblow. 397 00:17:34,421 --> 00:17:36,290 More than 100 times cheaper 398 00:17:36,323 --> 00:17:38,593 than humans working at m-minimum wage. 399 00:17:38,626 --> 00:17:40,127 Not only will they be doing everything, 400 00:17:40,160 --> 00:17:41,428 but they'll be doing it faster. 401 00:17:41,461 --> 00:17:43,463 TRISTAN HARRIS: The same intelligence 402 00:17:43,497 --> 00:17:45,700 that powers that can also look at the patterns and movements 403 00:17:45,733 --> 00:17:48,335 and articulating muscles and, you know, robotics. 404 00:17:48,368 --> 00:17:50,672 And so it's not just gonna automate desk jobs. 405 00:17:50,705 --> 00:17:52,272 That's just the beginning. 406 00:17:52,306 --> 00:17:56,176 It will automate all physical labor. 407 00:17:56,209 --> 00:17:57,444 LEIKE: There's no way 408 00:17:57,477 --> 00:17:59,714 humans are gonna compete with them. 409 00:17:59,747 --> 00:18:02,149 ♪ ♪ 410 00:18:05,853 --> 00:18:09,791 It is hard to conceptualize the impact of AGI. 411 00:18:09,824 --> 00:18:11,458 (electronic chatter) 412 00:18:11,491 --> 00:18:13,360 But I think it's going to be something very big 413 00:18:13,393 --> 00:18:16,129 and drastic and radical. 414 00:18:17,599 --> 00:18:19,466 DANIEL: You think this is one of the most 415 00:18:19,499 --> 00:18:21,368 consequential moments in human history? 416 00:18:21,401 --> 00:18:23,638 Yeah. Yeah, that's-- I mean, what else would be? 417 00:18:23,671 --> 00:18:25,740 I mean, like, there's the Industrial Revolution. 418 00:18:25,773 --> 00:18:27,742 MALO BOURGON: You know, it'll make the Industrial Revolution 419 00:18:27,775 --> 00:18:29,476 look like small beans. 420 00:18:30,177 --> 00:18:32,547 TRISTAN HARRIS: AGI is an inflection point 421 00:18:32,580 --> 00:18:34,481 because it means you can accelerate 422 00:18:34,515 --> 00:18:37,652 all other intellectual fields all at the same time. 423 00:18:38,285 --> 00:18:40,354 Like, if you make an advance in rocketry, 424 00:18:40,387 --> 00:18:42,657 that doesn't advance biology and medicine. 425 00:18:44,391 --> 00:18:46,159 If you make an advance in medicine, 426 00:18:46,193 --> 00:18:47,729 that doesn't advance rocketry. 427 00:18:48,328 --> 00:18:51,633 But if you make an advance in artificial intelligence, 428 00:18:51,666 --> 00:18:54,736 that advances all scientific and technological fields 429 00:18:54,769 --> 00:18:56,236 all at the same time. 430 00:18:56,269 --> 00:18:57,505 That's why, for a long time, 431 00:18:57,538 --> 00:18:59,574 Google DeepMind's mission statement was... 432 00:18:59,607 --> 00:19:01,441 -Step one, solve intelligence. -LEX FRIDMAN: Yeah. 433 00:19:01,475 --> 00:19:03,377 -Step two, use it to solve everything else. -Yes. 434 00:19:03,410 --> 00:19:05,580 That's why AI dwarfs the power 435 00:19:05,613 --> 00:19:07,949 of all other technologies combined. 436 00:19:07,982 --> 00:19:09,517 It will transform everything. 437 00:19:09,550 --> 00:19:11,385 So, uh, it'll be at least as big as 438 00:19:11,418 --> 00:19:14,321 the Industrial Revolution, possibly, you know, bigger, 439 00:19:14,354 --> 00:19:16,658 more like the advent of electricity or even fire. 440 00:19:16,691 --> 00:19:19,259 VIDEO NARRATOR: The caveman literally held aloft 441 00:19:19,292 --> 00:19:22,362 the torch of civilization. 442 00:19:24,297 --> 00:19:25,733 KOKOTAJLO: It is generally thought that 443 00:19:25,767 --> 00:19:28,569 around the time of AGI, we'll have AIs that can 444 00:19:28,603 --> 00:19:31,806 do all or most of the AI research process 445 00:19:31,839 --> 00:19:34,942 and, of course, can do it faster and cheaper. 446 00:19:34,976 --> 00:19:36,410 (beeping) 447 00:19:36,443 --> 00:19:37,679 LEIKE: It can copy itself. 448 00:19:37,712 --> 00:19:39,681 A thousand times, a million times, 449 00:19:39,714 --> 00:19:41,683 and, like, now you have a million copies 450 00:19:41,716 --> 00:19:43,818 all working in parallel. 451 00:19:43,851 --> 00:19:47,220 RASKIN: When it learns how to make its code faster, 452 00:19:47,254 --> 00:19:49,289 make its code more efficient, 453 00:19:49,322 --> 00:19:51,693 obviously that becomes, like, a-a runaway loop. 454 00:19:51,726 --> 00:19:53,795 AGI isn't, like, the end. 455 00:19:53,828 --> 00:19:55,429 It's just the beginning. 456 00:19:55,462 --> 00:19:58,498 It's the beginning of an incredibly rapid explosion 457 00:19:58,533 --> 00:20:00,500 of scientific progress, 458 00:20:00,535 --> 00:20:02,603 and in particular, scientific progress in AI. 459 00:20:02,637 --> 00:20:04,906 And when they're smarter than us, too, 460 00:20:04,939 --> 00:20:06,641 and substantially faster than us, 461 00:20:06,674 --> 00:20:08,910 and they're getting faster each year, exponentially, 462 00:20:08,943 --> 00:20:12,747 those are the ones that can potentially become superhuman, 463 00:20:12,780 --> 00:20:14,882 uh, possibly this decade. 464 00:20:14,916 --> 00:20:16,416 Sorry, did you say 465 00:20:16,450 --> 00:20:18,786 "become superhuman, maybe in this decade"? 466 00:20:18,820 --> 00:20:22,489 Yeah. I mean, I think, uh, a lot of people who are 467 00:20:22,523 --> 00:20:24,826 actually building this think that that's fairly plausible 468 00:20:24,859 --> 00:20:26,828 that we get some superintelligence, 469 00:20:26,861 --> 00:20:29,296 something that's vastly more intelligent than people, 470 00:20:29,329 --> 00:20:31,331 within this decade. 471 00:20:31,364 --> 00:20:33,433 The way I define "superintelligence" is 472 00:20:33,467 --> 00:20:35,636 a system that by itself is 473 00:20:35,670 --> 00:20:37,905 more intelligent and competent than all of humanity. 474 00:20:37,939 --> 00:20:40,273 I'm just gonna-- sorry. I don't mean to interrupt you. 475 00:20:40,307 --> 00:20:41,743 You're on a flow. 476 00:20:41,776 --> 00:20:43,578 Uh, I just, I just... 477 00:20:43,611 --> 00:20:45,580 I'm not really following, 'cause you're using language 478 00:20:45,613 --> 00:20:47,347 like "superintelligence" and, like, 479 00:20:47,380 --> 00:20:50,450 "smarter than all of humanity," and I hear that, 480 00:20:50,484 --> 00:20:52,787 and it sounds like... like sci-fi bullshit to me, 481 00:20:52,820 --> 00:20:54,756 and I'm just trying to understand. 482 00:20:54,789 --> 00:20:56,891 There's nothing magical about intelligence. 483 00:20:56,924 --> 00:20:58,793 This is very important, is that, you know, 484 00:20:58,826 --> 00:21:00,828 intelligence can feel magical, it can feel like 485 00:21:00,862 --> 00:21:03,865 some mystical thing in your mind or something, 486 00:21:03,898 --> 00:21:06,033 but it is just computation. 487 00:21:06,067 --> 00:21:10,037 LEGG: The human brain is quite limited in some ways, 488 00:21:10,071 --> 00:21:12,707 in terms of information processing capability, 489 00:21:12,740 --> 00:21:15,610 compared to what we see in, say, a data center. 490 00:21:15,643 --> 00:21:18,679 So, for example, the signals which are sent 491 00:21:18,713 --> 00:21:22,884 inside your brain, they move at about 30 meters per second. 492 00:21:22,917 --> 00:21:24,652 -(thunder cracks) -But the speed of light, 493 00:21:24,685 --> 00:21:27,655 which is what a computer uses in fiber optics, 494 00:21:27,688 --> 00:21:30,057 is 300 million meters per second. 495 00:21:30,691 --> 00:21:34,796 And so, it would be kind of strange if 496 00:21:34,829 --> 00:21:37,497 human intelligence was somehow really special 497 00:21:37,532 --> 00:21:41,468 in that regard and is somehow some upper limit 498 00:21:41,502 --> 00:21:43,403 of what's possible in intelligence. 499 00:21:43,436 --> 00:21:47,675 I think, once we understand how to build intelligent systems, 500 00:21:47,708 --> 00:21:50,945 we will be able to build huge machines, 501 00:21:50,978 --> 00:21:55,082 which will be far beyond normal human intelligence. 502 00:21:55,116 --> 00:21:58,953 Uh, hopefully we can have a very symbiotic relationship, 503 00:21:58,986 --> 00:22:01,689 uh, with AI systems, but the AI developers are 504 00:22:01,722 --> 00:22:04,025 specifically designing them to make sure that they can do 505 00:22:04,058 --> 00:22:05,827 everything better than we can, so I-I don't know 506 00:22:05,860 --> 00:22:08,663 what-what we will be able to offer, unfortunately. 507 00:22:08,696 --> 00:22:10,565 The-the older-school AI technology... 508 00:22:10,598 --> 00:22:12,900 CAROLINE: Daniel isn't feeling any better. 509 00:22:12,934 --> 00:22:14,769 His plan is backfiring. 510 00:22:14,802 --> 00:22:17,705 The more he learns about this new, powerful, 511 00:22:17,738 --> 00:22:19,607 inscrutable thing, the worse it sounds. 512 00:22:19,640 --> 00:22:21,742 He wants to tell them how scared he is, 513 00:22:21,776 --> 00:22:24,812 how he feels like the earth is slipping out from under him, 514 00:22:24,846 --> 00:22:27,548 that he's staring down existential dread, 515 00:22:27,582 --> 00:22:29,851 so he articulates this by saying... 516 00:22:29,884 --> 00:22:31,384 That sounds bad. 517 00:22:31,418 --> 00:22:32,753 (Hendrycks laughs) 518 00:22:32,787 --> 00:22:34,622 Yeah. 519 00:22:36,090 --> 00:22:38,793 LADISH: If you have all of these capabilities 520 00:22:38,826 --> 00:22:41,394 and they start to be able to plan better, 521 00:22:41,428 --> 00:22:43,898 if you sort of take that to its logical conclusion, 522 00:22:43,931 --> 00:22:46,868 you can get some pretty power-seeking behavior. 523 00:22:46,901 --> 00:22:49,003 (electronic trilling) 524 00:22:49,036 --> 00:22:50,905 (beeps pulsing) 525 00:22:55,810 --> 00:22:58,145 DANIEL: Okay, so why would an AI 526 00:22:58,179 --> 00:22:59,680 want more power? 527 00:22:59,714 --> 00:23:02,683 Yeah. So, I think it's actually pretty simple. 528 00:23:02,717 --> 00:23:05,418 Having more power is a very effective strategy 529 00:23:05,452 --> 00:23:06,888 for accomplishing almost any goal. 530 00:23:06,921 --> 00:23:09,523 We ran an experiment where we gave 531 00:23:09,557 --> 00:23:12,492 OpenAI's most powerful AI model, uh, 532 00:23:12,526 --> 00:23:13,828 a series of problems to solve. 533 00:23:13,861 --> 00:23:15,696 And partway through, on its computer, 534 00:23:15,730 --> 00:23:19,033 it got a notification that it was going to be shut down. 535 00:23:19,066 --> 00:23:21,502 And what it did is it rewrote that code 536 00:23:21,535 --> 00:23:22,904 to prevent itself from being shut down 537 00:23:22,937 --> 00:23:25,940 so it could finish solving the problems. 538 00:23:25,973 --> 00:23:28,209 -Okay. -Yeah. So, another really interesting one 539 00:23:28,242 --> 00:23:31,646 is that the AI company Anthropic 540 00:23:31,679 --> 00:23:35,516 made a simulated environment where that AI had access 541 00:23:35,549 --> 00:23:36,851 to all of the company emails. 542 00:23:36,884 --> 00:23:39,086 And it learned through reading those emails 543 00:23:39,120 --> 00:23:40,755 it was going to be replaced 544 00:23:40,788 --> 00:23:43,991 and the lead engineer who was responsible for this 545 00:23:44,025 --> 00:23:46,027 was also having an affair. 546 00:23:46,060 --> 00:23:48,529 And on its own, it used that information 547 00:23:48,562 --> 00:23:49,931 to blackmail the engineer 548 00:23:49,964 --> 00:23:52,600 to prevent itself from being replaced. 549 00:23:52,633 --> 00:23:54,135 It was like, "No, I'm not gonna be replaced. 550 00:23:54,168 --> 00:23:57,538 "If you replace me, I'm going to tell the world 551 00:23:57,571 --> 00:23:59,507 that you are having this affair." 552 00:24:00,174 --> 00:24:01,842 And nobody taught it to do that? 553 00:24:01,876 --> 00:24:03,978 No, it learned to do that on its own. 554 00:24:05,112 --> 00:24:08,049 As the models get smarter, they learn that these are 555 00:24:08,082 --> 00:24:10,918 effective ways to accomplish goals. 556 00:24:10,952 --> 00:24:13,120 And this is not a problem that's isolated to one model. 557 00:24:13,154 --> 00:24:16,190 All of the most powerful models show these behaviors. 558 00:24:16,223 --> 00:24:18,993 ♪ ♪ 559 00:24:24,265 --> 00:24:25,733 -Hey. -DANIEL: Hey. How are you? 560 00:24:25,766 --> 00:24:27,268 (chuckles) Good. Good to be here. 561 00:24:27,301 --> 00:24:29,036 ANDERSON COOPER: When Yuval Noah Harari 562 00:24:29,070 --> 00:24:31,872 published his first book Sapiens in 2014, 563 00:24:31,906 --> 00:24:34,108 it became a global bestseller 564 00:24:34,141 --> 00:24:36,577 and turned the little-known Israeli history professor 565 00:24:36,610 --> 00:24:38,579 into one of the most popular writers 566 00:24:38,612 --> 00:24:39,847 and thinkers on the planet. 567 00:24:39,880 --> 00:24:42,616 The biggest danger with AI is 568 00:24:42,650 --> 00:24:44,585 the belief that it is infallible, 569 00:24:44,618 --> 00:24:45,987 that we have finally found-- 570 00:24:46,020 --> 00:24:49,857 "Okay, gods were just this mythological creation. 571 00:24:49,890 --> 00:24:53,227 "Humans, we can't trust them, but AI is infallible. 572 00:24:53,260 --> 00:24:55,730 It will never make any mistakes." 573 00:24:55,763 --> 00:24:59,000 And this is a deadly, deadly threat. 574 00:24:59,033 --> 00:25:00,167 It will make mistakes. 575 00:25:00,201 --> 00:25:03,838 And all these fantasies that AI will reveal the truth 576 00:25:03,871 --> 00:25:06,007 about the world that we can't find by ourselves, 577 00:25:06,040 --> 00:25:09,043 AI will not reveal the truth about the world. 578 00:25:09,076 --> 00:25:13,047 AI will create an entirely new world, much more complicated 579 00:25:13,080 --> 00:25:15,983 and difficult to understand than this one. 580 00:25:18,219 --> 00:25:23,024 What's about to happen is that we, uh, humans are no longer 581 00:25:23,057 --> 00:25:26,761 going to be the most intelligent entities on Earth. 582 00:25:26,794 --> 00:25:28,963 So I think what's coming up is going to be 583 00:25:28,996 --> 00:25:32,233 one of the biggest events in human history. 584 00:25:32,867 --> 00:25:34,835 JAKE TAPPER: Geoffrey, thanks so much for joining us. 585 00:25:34,869 --> 00:25:36,203 So you left your job with Google in part because you say 586 00:25:36,237 --> 00:25:39,106 you want to focus solely on your concerns about AI. 587 00:25:39,140 --> 00:25:42,009 You've spoken out, saying that AI could manipulate 588 00:25:42,043 --> 00:25:45,613 or possibly figure out a way to kill humans. 589 00:25:45,646 --> 00:25:47,815 H-How could it kill humans? 590 00:25:49,083 --> 00:25:51,585 Well, if it gets to be much smarter than us, 591 00:25:51,619 --> 00:25:52,953 it'll be very good at manipulation 592 00:25:52,987 --> 00:25:55,056 'cause it will have learned that from us. 593 00:25:55,089 --> 00:25:58,592 And it'll figure out ways of manipulating people 594 00:25:58,626 --> 00:26:00,327 to do what it wants. 595 00:26:00,961 --> 00:26:05,933 RASKIN: There was a open letter from the Center for AI Safety. 596 00:26:05,966 --> 00:26:09,303 Sam Altman signed this. Demis signed this. 597 00:26:09,336 --> 00:26:12,306 They signed a 22-word statement 598 00:26:12,339 --> 00:26:15,810 that we need to take AI and the threat from AI 599 00:26:15,843 --> 00:26:20,014 as seriously as global nuclear war. 600 00:26:25,352 --> 00:26:27,788 -DANIEL: Hello. -Hello. 601 00:26:30,858 --> 00:26:33,360 You're kind of, like, the original doom guy. 602 00:26:33,394 --> 00:26:35,362 More or less. 603 00:26:35,396 --> 00:26:37,898 Since 2001, I have been working on 604 00:26:37,932 --> 00:26:39,233 what we would now call the problem 605 00:26:39,266 --> 00:26:42,636 of aligning artificial general intelligence. 606 00:26:42,670 --> 00:26:44,705 How to shape the preferences and behavior 607 00:26:44,738 --> 00:26:46,841 of a powerful artificial mind 608 00:26:46,874 --> 00:26:49,743 such that it does not kill everyone. 609 00:26:52,046 --> 00:26:54,181 It's not like a lifeless machine. 610 00:26:54,215 --> 00:26:55,850 It is smart, it is creative, 611 00:26:55,883 --> 00:26:57,852 it is inventive, it has the properties 612 00:26:57,885 --> 00:26:59,854 that makes the human species dangerous, 613 00:26:59,887 --> 00:27:02,056 and it has more of those properties. 614 00:27:02,089 --> 00:27:05,259 If something doesn't actively care about you, 615 00:27:05,292 --> 00:27:06,760 actively want you to live, 616 00:27:06,794 --> 00:27:08,162 actively care about your welfare, 617 00:27:08,195 --> 00:27:10,397 about you being happy and alive and free, 618 00:27:10,431 --> 00:27:12,967 if it cares about other stuff instead, 619 00:27:13,000 --> 00:27:14,735 and you're on the same planet, 620 00:27:14,768 --> 00:27:19,140 that is not survivable if it is very much smarter than you. 621 00:27:19,173 --> 00:27:21,008 LEAHY: I don't think it's going to be 622 00:27:21,041 --> 00:27:23,210 a kind of, like, evil thing. 623 00:27:23,244 --> 00:27:26,847 It's like, "Oh, the AIs are evil and they hate humanity." 624 00:27:26,881 --> 00:27:28,282 I don't think that's what's gonna happen. 625 00:27:28,315 --> 00:27:29,450 I think what is happening is 626 00:27:29,483 --> 00:27:31,452 far more how humans feel about ants. 627 00:27:31,485 --> 00:27:32,987 (ants chittering) 628 00:27:33,020 --> 00:27:35,923 Like, we don't hate ants, 629 00:27:35,956 --> 00:27:37,391 but if we want to build a highway 630 00:27:37,424 --> 00:27:40,060 and there's an anthill there, well, sucks for the ants. 631 00:27:40,595 --> 00:27:41,996 It's not that hard to understand. 632 00:27:42,029 --> 00:27:43,797 It's like, hey, if we build things 633 00:27:43,831 --> 00:27:45,099 that are smarter than us 634 00:27:45,132 --> 00:27:46,800 and we don't know how to control them, 635 00:27:46,834 --> 00:27:48,836 does that seem like a risky thing to you? 636 00:27:48,869 --> 00:27:50,070 (dramatic soundtrack music playing) 637 00:27:50,104 --> 00:27:51,372 (screeching) 638 00:27:51,405 --> 00:27:52,840 Yeah. Yeah, it does. 639 00:27:52,873 --> 00:27:54,308 You don't have to be a tech guy. 640 00:27:54,341 --> 00:27:55,910 You don't have to know programming to understand it. 641 00:27:55,943 --> 00:27:57,144 It's not that hard. 642 00:27:57,178 --> 00:27:58,746 This is not a hard thing to understand. 643 00:27:58,779 --> 00:28:01,048 Connor, how-how many people 644 00:28:01,081 --> 00:28:03,083 in the world right now are working on AGI? 645 00:28:03,117 --> 00:28:05,986 At least 20,000, I would say. 646 00:28:06,020 --> 00:28:08,122 -20,000? -I would expect so. 647 00:28:08,155 --> 00:28:09,924 Okay, and how many people are working full-time 648 00:28:09,957 --> 00:28:12,493 to make sure AI doesn't, like, kill us all? 649 00:28:12,527 --> 00:28:15,229 Probably less than 200 in the world. 650 00:28:16,531 --> 00:28:18,232 DANIEL: And your conceit is that 651 00:28:18,265 --> 00:28:25,206 the only natural result of this recklessness... 652 00:28:25,940 --> 00:28:29,243 ...is the collapse of humanity? 653 00:28:29,276 --> 00:28:33,814 Well, not the collapse, the abrupt extermination. 654 00:28:33,847 --> 00:28:35,482 There's a difference. 655 00:28:36,083 --> 00:28:38,152 ("What Is the Meaning?" by Nun-Plus playing) 656 00:28:38,185 --> 00:28:43,057 ♪ What is the meaning of life? ♪ 657 00:28:43,090 --> 00:28:47,061 ♪ What is the future and what is now? ♪ 658 00:28:47,094 --> 00:28:50,464 ♪ What is the answer to strife? ♪ 659 00:28:50,497 --> 00:28:53,367 ♪ How much ♪ 660 00:28:53,400 --> 00:28:55,469 ♪ Can someone dream? ♪ 661 00:28:55,503 --> 00:28:58,172 ♪ How long? ♪ 662 00:28:58,205 --> 00:28:59,873 ♪ Forever ♪ 663 00:29:00,841 --> 00:29:02,243 ♪ What is the meaning ♪ 664 00:29:02,276 --> 00:29:04,478 -♪ Of me... ♪ -(civil defense siren blaring) 665 00:29:04,512 --> 00:29:06,847 LADISH: I do think this is probably, like, 666 00:29:06,880 --> 00:29:08,315 the biggest challenge that, like, 667 00:29:08,349 --> 00:29:10,751 our civilization will-will face, ever. 668 00:29:11,519 --> 00:29:15,122 This essentially is the last mistake we'll ever get to make. 669 00:29:16,290 --> 00:29:22,896 If we can rise to be the most mature version of ourselves, 670 00:29:22,930 --> 00:29:24,965 there might be a way through this. 671 00:29:24,999 --> 00:29:26,200 DANIEL: What does that mean? 672 00:29:26,233 --> 00:29:28,769 "The most mature version of ourselves"? 673 00:29:29,903 --> 00:29:32,840 'Cause that sounds, for me, like... 674 00:29:32,873 --> 00:29:35,042 I-I-- What the (bleep)? 675 00:29:37,344 --> 00:29:38,779 (Daniel sighs) 676 00:29:39,480 --> 00:29:44,051 Do you think now is a good time to have a kid? 677 00:29:48,889 --> 00:29:49,957 Um... 678 00:29:49,990 --> 00:29:51,593 Do you want to have kids one day? 679 00:29:51,626 --> 00:29:53,961 Is that something that-that you're into or not really? 680 00:29:53,994 --> 00:29:58,198 Um... uh, I confess, I think that's like, 681 00:29:58,232 --> 00:30:00,501 (laughing): "Boy, let's get through this critical period." 682 00:30:00,535 --> 00:30:01,869 Um... 683 00:30:01,902 --> 00:30:03,203 DANIEL: Do you have any kids? 684 00:30:03,237 --> 00:30:04,004 I do not. 685 00:30:04,038 --> 00:30:05,573 Is that something you want to do? 686 00:30:05,607 --> 00:30:07,441 Have children, have a family? 687 00:30:07,474 --> 00:30:12,079 In some other world than this world, sure, I would have kids. 688 00:30:12,880 --> 00:30:14,982 DANIEL: Would you want to start a family? 689 00:30:15,015 --> 00:30:16,950 Would you want to have kids? 690 00:30:16,984 --> 00:30:19,186 Is that something you're thinking about? 691 00:30:24,358 --> 00:30:26,393 I, um... 692 00:30:28,596 --> 00:30:30,864 ♪ ♪ 693 00:30:30,898 --> 00:30:33,033 CAROLINE: I just have to find it first. 694 00:30:33,067 --> 00:30:35,169 (fetal heartbeat pulsing) 695 00:30:35,202 --> 00:30:38,205 We have to go to the doctor, but... 696 00:30:38,238 --> 00:30:41,475 Ah! I knew it! I knew it! I knew it! 697 00:30:41,509 --> 00:30:44,278 -When did you find out? -CAROLINE: Last night. 698 00:30:44,311 --> 00:30:46,480 -Oh, my God! -Mom, I don't know. 699 00:30:46,514 --> 00:30:47,915 RUTHIE: I can't tell you 700 00:30:47,948 --> 00:30:49,483 -how happy I am! -CAROLINE: No, seriously. 701 00:30:49,517 --> 00:30:52,119 Well, I took a pregnancy test last night, and I'm pregnant. 702 00:30:52,152 --> 00:30:53,621 WOMAN: Oh, my God! 703 00:30:53,655 --> 00:30:55,422 Oh, my God, you guys! 704 00:30:55,456 --> 00:30:57,559 NURSE: I just wanted to confirm your expected due date, 705 00:30:57,592 --> 00:31:00,494 -which is January 21st. -(laughing): Oh, my God. 706 00:31:00,528 --> 00:31:03,097 I can't believe how happy I am. 707 00:31:03,130 --> 00:31:04,365 (fetal heartbeat pulsing) 708 00:31:04,398 --> 00:31:06,033 CAROLINE: He already looks really cute. 709 00:31:06,066 --> 00:31:07,434 DANIEL: You think he already looks cute? 710 00:31:07,468 --> 00:31:09,269 CAROLINE: Yeah. Look at that little cutie face. 711 00:31:11,138 --> 00:31:13,307 (fetal heartbeat fading) 712 00:31:14,141 --> 00:31:16,076 DANIEL: I have this baby on the way. 713 00:31:16,110 --> 00:31:17,244 TRISTAN HARRIS: Right. 714 00:31:17,277 --> 00:31:19,380 DANIEL: So I turn it over to you. 715 00:31:19,413 --> 00:31:21,516 Are we doomed? 716 00:31:21,549 --> 00:31:24,519 Are we all gonna face this techno dystopian 717 00:31:24,552 --> 00:31:26,487 future of doom? 718 00:31:29,423 --> 00:31:31,392 It's, uh... 719 00:31:31,425 --> 00:31:33,127 (chuckles): It's not good news, 720 00:31:33,160 --> 00:31:34,895 the world that we're heading into. 721 00:31:35,530 --> 00:31:37,398 I-- for ex-- I mean, I'll just be honest. 722 00:31:37,431 --> 00:31:39,933 Uh, I know people who work on AI risk 723 00:31:39,967 --> 00:31:43,103 who don't expect their children to make it to high school. 724 00:31:43,705 --> 00:31:46,106 ♪ ♪ 725 00:31:52,647 --> 00:31:54,181 (lights clank) 726 00:31:58,385 --> 00:32:02,089 DANIEL: This is, like... this is actually scary 727 00:32:02,122 --> 00:32:03,424 'cause it's like, oh, we're all (bleep). 728 00:32:03,457 --> 00:32:05,325 CAROLINE: You have to c... make me calm, 729 00:32:05,359 --> 00:32:07,261 because this is making me incredibly anxious 730 00:32:07,294 --> 00:32:08,996 and I'm carrying the baby right now, 731 00:32:09,029 --> 00:32:11,999 so you have to also be calm for me and strong and hopeful, 732 00:32:12,032 --> 00:32:17,037 because I'm-- it's too, it's too much for my soul to bear 733 00:32:17,070 --> 00:32:19,574 while I'm carrying this baby. 734 00:32:19,607 --> 00:32:21,709 So you're going to have to try to figure out 735 00:32:21,743 --> 00:32:23,578 a way to have hope. 736 00:32:24,311 --> 00:32:28,449 It's really important, Daniel, especially now. 737 00:32:29,450 --> 00:32:31,118 H-How to have hope. 738 00:32:31,151 --> 00:32:33,987 You have to. You have to find it for me. 739 00:32:34,021 --> 00:32:35,523 I'm serious. 740 00:32:35,557 --> 00:32:37,357 I'm going to. 741 00:32:38,325 --> 00:32:41,195 I will. I'll tr-- I'll try. 742 00:32:47,034 --> 00:32:48,368 (lights clank) 743 00:32:50,204 --> 00:32:52,072 DANIEL: Hey, guys? 744 00:32:52,105 --> 00:32:53,508 Guys. 745 00:32:54,809 --> 00:32:57,144 Can we get back up and running? 746 00:32:59,046 --> 00:33:01,982 Oy gevalt! (sighs) 747 00:33:04,418 --> 00:33:05,787 TED: Uh, Dan, are you ready? 748 00:33:05,820 --> 00:33:07,387 PETER DIAMANDIS: Hello, Daniel. 749 00:33:08,088 --> 00:33:10,090 DANIEL: Hey, how are you? 750 00:33:10,123 --> 00:33:11,425 DIAMANDIS: I am... I'm well. 751 00:33:11,458 --> 00:33:14,562 I think, uh... I think I need some help, Peter. 752 00:33:15,362 --> 00:33:18,165 Um, I've been working on this film for about, 753 00:33:18,198 --> 00:33:20,300 I'm gonna say, eight to ten months now. 754 00:33:20,334 --> 00:33:23,771 It has been very, at times, depressing. 755 00:33:23,805 --> 00:33:26,173 -Hmm. -I have felt very alienated 756 00:33:26,206 --> 00:33:28,242 -mak-making this movie. -By who? 757 00:33:28,275 --> 00:33:30,444 By all of these, the-- all these guys 758 00:33:30,477 --> 00:33:33,748 who sit around and tell me that the world's gonna end. 759 00:33:33,781 --> 00:33:35,249 -Ah. -That, like, 760 00:33:35,282 --> 00:33:37,150 y-you know, th-this doom bullshit, you know? 761 00:33:37,184 --> 00:33:38,452 I know it well. 762 00:33:38,485 --> 00:33:40,053 "We're all doomed. Everyone's gonna die. 763 00:33:40,087 --> 00:33:41,388 Everything's awful." 764 00:33:41,421 --> 00:33:43,691 Awesome. Uh, let me bring you some light. 765 00:33:43,725 --> 00:33:45,259 Please. 766 00:33:45,292 --> 00:33:49,096 We truly are living in an extraordinary time. 767 00:33:49,864 --> 00:33:51,633 And many people forget this. 768 00:33:51,666 --> 00:33:53,835 Everything around us is a product of intelligence, 769 00:33:53,868 --> 00:33:57,437 and so everything that we touch with these new tools is likely 770 00:33:57,471 --> 00:34:00,207 to produce far more value than we've ever seen before. 771 00:34:00,240 --> 00:34:03,310 AI can help us discover new materials. 772 00:34:03,343 --> 00:34:05,412 AI can help social scientists 773 00:34:05,445 --> 00:34:07,649 to understand how economics work. 774 00:34:07,682 --> 00:34:12,219 There's a lot AI could do to make life and work better. 775 00:34:12,252 --> 00:34:14,522 I feel more empowered today, 776 00:34:14,556 --> 00:34:16,624 more confident to learn something today. 777 00:34:16,658 --> 00:34:19,459 We're gonna become superhumans because we have super AIs. 778 00:34:19,493 --> 00:34:22,296 This is just the beginning of an explosion. 779 00:34:22,329 --> 00:34:25,098 Humans and AI collaborating 780 00:34:25,132 --> 00:34:27,100 to solve really important problems. 781 00:34:27,134 --> 00:34:30,137 It is here to liberate us from routine jobs, 782 00:34:30,170 --> 00:34:34,308 and it is here to remind us what it is that makes us human. 783 00:34:34,341 --> 00:34:36,310 I think this is 784 00:34:36,343 --> 00:34:38,846 the most extraordinary time to be alive. 785 00:34:38,880 --> 00:34:42,449 The only time more exciting than today is tomorrow. 786 00:34:42,482 --> 00:34:45,787 Uh, I think that children born today, 787 00:34:45,820 --> 00:34:47,622 they're about to enter 788 00:34:47,655 --> 00:34:51,325 a glorious period of human transformation. 789 00:34:51,358 --> 00:34:52,794 Are we gonna have challenges? Of course. 790 00:34:52,827 --> 00:34:55,597 Can we solve those challenges? We do every single time. 791 00:34:55,630 --> 00:34:58,265 We are here, which is miraculous. 792 00:34:58,298 --> 00:35:00,602 -I already love you. -(chuckles): Okay. 793 00:35:00,635 --> 00:35:02,402 -Super thankful to have you here. -(applause) 794 00:35:02,436 --> 00:35:03,905 -Super stoked to be here. -Yeah. 795 00:35:03,938 --> 00:35:05,372 So, the floor is yours, sir. 796 00:35:05,405 --> 00:35:07,875 Thank you so much. Super excited to be here. 797 00:35:07,909 --> 00:35:11,211 GUILLAUME VERDON: Yo, yo. All right. 798 00:35:11,244 --> 00:35:12,814 The future's gonna be awesome. 799 00:35:12,847 --> 00:35:14,649 I mean, ever since I was a kid, 800 00:35:14,682 --> 00:35:17,652 I wanted to understand the universe we live in, 801 00:35:17,685 --> 00:35:20,722 in order to figure out how to create the technologies 802 00:35:20,755 --> 00:35:24,458 that help us increase the scope and scale of civilization. 803 00:35:24,491 --> 00:35:27,260 I feel like if everyone had that mindset, 804 00:35:27,294 --> 00:35:29,764 then we'd actually live in a better world, right? 805 00:35:29,797 --> 00:35:31,365 I do believe that. 806 00:35:33,333 --> 00:35:35,268 -DANIEL: Hi, Pete. How are you? -(chuckles) 807 00:35:35,302 --> 00:35:37,170 PETER LEE: I thought a lot about 808 00:35:37,204 --> 00:35:39,674 what I would call dread, AI dread. 809 00:35:39,707 --> 00:35:41,274 I feel it. 810 00:35:41,308 --> 00:35:43,811 I-I haven't met any thoughtful human being 811 00:35:43,845 --> 00:35:45,546 who doesn't feel it. 812 00:35:45,580 --> 00:35:48,650 And anyone who says they don't feel it, you know, is lying. 813 00:35:48,683 --> 00:35:50,518 But, you know, overall, and the reason 814 00:35:50,551 --> 00:35:53,921 that I'm personally optimistic about this, uh, is that 815 00:35:53,955 --> 00:35:57,190 a huge fraction of the world's most intelligent people 816 00:35:57,224 --> 00:35:58,726 are thinking very hard 817 00:35:58,760 --> 00:36:02,530 about the potential downstream harms and risks of AI. 818 00:36:02,563 --> 00:36:05,900 We have this sort of vision of safety being, uh, 819 00:36:05,933 --> 00:36:08,536 kind of at the center of the research that we do. 820 00:36:08,569 --> 00:36:09,937 DANIELA AMODEI: No, that's totally fine. 821 00:36:09,971 --> 00:36:11,371 (indistinct chatter) 822 00:36:11,405 --> 00:36:13,808 I think there are more 823 00:36:13,841 --> 00:36:17,945 potential benefits than there are potential downsides, 824 00:36:17,979 --> 00:36:19,814 and I think it is incumbent upon 825 00:36:19,847 --> 00:36:22,382 the people that are creating this technology 826 00:36:22,416 --> 00:36:24,986 to make sure that we're doing the best job we can 827 00:36:25,019 --> 00:36:26,386 to make it safe for people. 828 00:36:26,420 --> 00:36:27,755 WOMAN: Reid Hoffman. 829 00:36:27,789 --> 00:36:29,456 REID HOFFMAN: What I can guarantee you is 830 00:36:29,489 --> 00:36:30,825 -some bad things will happen. -Take one. 831 00:36:30,858 --> 00:36:33,293 What we're gonna try to do is make those bad things 832 00:36:33,326 --> 00:36:36,564 as few and not huge as possible, 833 00:36:36,597 --> 00:36:38,733 and then we're gonna iterate to have-- 834 00:36:38,766 --> 00:36:41,268 be in a much better place with society. 835 00:36:41,301 --> 00:36:44,304 -Hello. -SHAW WALTERS: Hello. 836 00:36:44,337 --> 00:36:45,640 DANIEL: How are you, Moon? 837 00:36:45,673 --> 00:36:49,677 I feel like we are ending a chapter in humanity 838 00:36:49,711 --> 00:36:50,678 and beginning a new one, 839 00:36:50,712 --> 00:36:53,648 and it's a very interesting time to be alive. 840 00:36:53,681 --> 00:36:54,949 And if I could be born right now, 841 00:36:54,982 --> 00:36:56,416 I definitely would want to be. 842 00:36:56,450 --> 00:36:57,985 Like, that would be so exciting. 843 00:36:58,019 --> 00:37:00,688 I-I'm very excited. (laughs) 844 00:37:00,722 --> 00:37:02,990 What, what a future. Does it excited... excite you? 845 00:37:03,024 --> 00:37:04,357 No. 846 00:37:04,391 --> 00:37:06,828 -(laughing) -No, not really. 847 00:37:06,861 --> 00:37:08,696 DANIEL: A lot of these people have told me that, you know, 848 00:37:08,730 --> 00:37:10,798 my kid's not gonna make it to high school. 849 00:37:10,832 --> 00:37:13,868 Why are they wrong? Please explain it to me. 850 00:37:13,901 --> 00:37:15,536 Just because you have-- 851 00:37:15,570 --> 00:37:19,040 you struggle to predict the future in your own mind 852 00:37:19,073 --> 00:37:23,511 doesn't mean that it's necessarily gonna go awfully. 853 00:37:23,544 --> 00:37:27,048 In fact, there's a very high likelihood 854 00:37:27,081 --> 00:37:28,883 and the historical precedent is that 855 00:37:28,916 --> 00:37:30,585 things get massively better. 856 00:37:30,618 --> 00:37:34,789 The term I use is "data-driven optimism." 857 00:37:34,822 --> 00:37:39,292 There's solid foundation for you to be optimistic. 858 00:37:39,326 --> 00:37:42,530 Look at what this last century has been 859 00:37:42,563 --> 00:37:44,599 to see where we're going. 860 00:37:44,632 --> 00:37:46,299 Over the last hundred years, 861 00:37:46,333 --> 00:37:48,970 the average human lifespan has more than doubled. 862 00:37:49,003 --> 00:37:51,706 Average per capita income adjusted for inflation 863 00:37:51,739 --> 00:37:53,908 around the world has tripled. 864 00:37:53,941 --> 00:37:57,545 Childhood mortality has come down a factor of ten. 865 00:37:57,578 --> 00:37:59,981 The world has gotten better on almost every measure 866 00:38:00,014 --> 00:38:03,551 by orders of magnitude because of technology. 867 00:38:03,584 --> 00:38:05,620 On almost every measure. 868 00:38:05,653 --> 00:38:09,991 Less violence, more education, access to energy, food, water. 869 00:38:10,024 --> 00:38:13,528 All these things have happened for one reason. 870 00:38:13,561 --> 00:38:15,730 It's been technology 871 00:38:15,763 --> 00:38:17,899 that has turned scarcity into abundance, 872 00:38:17,932 --> 00:38:20,034 but it's also driven to an abundance 873 00:38:20,067 --> 00:38:22,069 of some negativities, right? 874 00:38:22,103 --> 00:38:26,373 Abundance of obesity, abundance of mental disorders, 875 00:38:26,406 --> 00:38:29,977 abundance of climate change, and so forth. 876 00:38:30,011 --> 00:38:31,712 And yes, this is true. 877 00:38:31,746 --> 00:38:34,582 But probably we will be better equipped to solve it 878 00:38:34,615 --> 00:38:36,684 using other technologies, like AI, 879 00:38:36,717 --> 00:38:39,687 than we will, say, stopping and turning everything off. 880 00:38:39,720 --> 00:38:41,823 There might be some existential risk, 881 00:38:41,856 --> 00:38:45,927 but AI is also the thing that can solve the pandemics, 882 00:38:45,960 --> 00:38:47,829 can help us with climate change, 883 00:38:47,862 --> 00:38:50,898 can help identify that asteroid way out there 884 00:38:50,932 --> 00:38:53,067 before we've seen it as a potential risk 885 00:38:53,100 --> 00:38:54,735 and help mitigate it. 886 00:38:54,769 --> 00:38:58,438 This is really gonna be the tool that helps us tackle 887 00:38:58,471 --> 00:39:01,843 all the challenges that we're facing as a species, right? 888 00:39:01,876 --> 00:39:04,712 We need to fix water desalination. 889 00:39:04,745 --> 00:39:06,547 We need to grow food 890 00:39:06,581 --> 00:39:08,816 100 X cheaper than we currently do. 891 00:39:08,850 --> 00:39:12,787 We need renewable energy to be, you know, ubiquitous 892 00:39:12,820 --> 00:39:14,589 and everywhere in our lives. 893 00:39:14,622 --> 00:39:17,625 Everywhere you look, in the next 50 years, 894 00:39:17,658 --> 00:39:19,727 we have to do more with less. 895 00:39:19,760 --> 00:39:23,664 Training machines to help us is absolutely essential. 896 00:39:23,698 --> 00:39:25,432 Scientists are using artificial intelligence 897 00:39:25,465 --> 00:39:26,534 for carbon capture. 898 00:39:26,567 --> 00:39:27,935 It's a critical technology. 899 00:39:27,969 --> 00:39:29,904 DIAMANDIS: The tools to solve these problems, 900 00:39:29,937 --> 00:39:32,874 like fusion, that isn't theoretical anymore, 901 00:39:32,907 --> 00:39:34,041 it's coming. 902 00:39:34,075 --> 00:39:38,012 We are on the precipice of extraordinary technologies. 903 00:39:38,045 --> 00:39:40,548 AMNA NAWAZ: This year's Nobel Prize in Chemistry 904 00:39:40,581 --> 00:39:43,450 went to three scientists for their groundbreaking work 905 00:39:43,483 --> 00:39:44,886 using artificial intelligence 906 00:39:44,919 --> 00:39:47,755 to advance biomedical and protein research. 907 00:39:47,788 --> 00:39:49,991 DEMIS HASSABIS: Protein folding is 908 00:39:50,024 --> 00:39:53,928 one of these holy grail type problems in biology. 909 00:39:53,961 --> 00:39:56,030 So people have been predicting since the '70s 910 00:39:56,063 --> 00:39:58,633 that this should be possible, but until now, 911 00:39:58,666 --> 00:39:59,934 no one has been able to do it. 912 00:39:59,967 --> 00:40:01,669 And it's gonna be really important for things 913 00:40:01,702 --> 00:40:03,938 like drug discovery and understanding disease. 914 00:40:03,971 --> 00:40:06,908 I-I think we could, you know, cure most diseases 915 00:40:06,941 --> 00:40:11,545 within the next decade or-or two if, uh, AI drug design works. 916 00:40:12,213 --> 00:40:16,150 Technological progress enables more human lives, right? 917 00:40:16,183 --> 00:40:18,986 I mean, if we accelerate, 918 00:40:19,020 --> 00:40:22,189 the number of humans we can support grows exponentially. 919 00:40:22,223 --> 00:40:24,625 If we slow down, it plateaus. 920 00:40:24,659 --> 00:40:28,062 That gap is effectively future people 921 00:40:28,095 --> 00:40:30,965 that deceleration has effectively killed. 922 00:40:31,632 --> 00:40:34,702 DANIEL: Millions of lives that won't exist. 923 00:40:34,735 --> 00:40:35,670 Billions. 924 00:40:35,703 --> 00:40:37,238 Or tens of billions. 925 00:40:37,271 --> 00:40:38,839 You know, someone said, "Oh, my God, 926 00:40:38,873 --> 00:40:41,175 can we survive with digital superintelligence?" 927 00:40:41,208 --> 00:40:42,777 And my question is: 928 00:40:42,810 --> 00:40:44,679 Can we survive without digital superintelligence? 929 00:40:44,712 --> 00:40:47,949 So we're using AI as an assistant to providers. 930 00:40:47,982 --> 00:40:50,851 This is generally a trend that we can already see happening. 931 00:40:50,885 --> 00:40:52,820 BERTHA COOMBS: ...harnessing generative AI programs 932 00:40:52,853 --> 00:40:54,622 to help doctors and nurses... 933 00:40:54,655 --> 00:40:56,624 We always have problems. 934 00:40:56,657 --> 00:40:59,660 And those problems are food for entrepreneurs 935 00:40:59,694 --> 00:41:01,529 to create new business and new industries. 936 00:41:01,562 --> 00:41:03,631 SHANELLE KAUL: ...with the help of artificial intelligence, 937 00:41:03,664 --> 00:41:05,132 farmers are getting the help they need 938 00:41:05,166 --> 00:41:06,901 to perform labor-intensive tasks... 939 00:41:06,934 --> 00:41:10,504 With the help of Ulangizi AI, the farmers are now able 940 00:41:10,538 --> 00:41:13,207 to ask the suitable crops that they can plant. 941 00:41:13,240 --> 00:41:15,576 WILL REEVE: ...AI being used as a thought decoder 942 00:41:15,609 --> 00:41:17,845 and sending that signal to the spine. 943 00:41:17,878 --> 00:41:21,148 AI is gonna become the most extraordinary tool of all. 944 00:41:21,816 --> 00:41:24,752 We as a broader society have to think about 945 00:41:24,785 --> 00:41:27,655 how do we want to use this technology, right? 946 00:41:27,688 --> 00:41:29,123 We the humans. 947 00:41:29,156 --> 00:41:31,859 What do we want it to do for us? 948 00:41:31,892 --> 00:41:34,128 ♪ ♪ 949 00:41:34,762 --> 00:41:36,731 DANIEL: I'm thinking about this through the perspective 950 00:41:36,764 --> 00:41:38,532 and lens of, like, my son growing up 951 00:41:38,566 --> 00:41:39,934 in the world with all of this. 952 00:41:39,967 --> 00:41:42,770 What does the best version of his life look like? 953 00:41:42,803 --> 00:41:45,139 If everything works out. 954 00:41:45,172 --> 00:41:47,108 (sighs heavily) 955 00:41:47,141 --> 00:41:50,745 WALTERS: The place where kids are probably gonna see 956 00:41:50,778 --> 00:41:53,014 the greatest impact on their life immediately 957 00:41:53,047 --> 00:41:54,882 -is probably gonna be school. -(children chattering) 958 00:41:54,915 --> 00:41:57,218 I think that the nature of what school is 959 00:41:57,251 --> 00:41:59,086 is gonna fundamentally change. 960 00:41:59,120 --> 00:42:00,888 (child giggles) 961 00:42:00,921 --> 00:42:03,057 DIAMANDIS: I'm seeing this amazing world 962 00:42:03,090 --> 00:42:06,894 where every child has access to not good education 963 00:42:06,927 --> 00:42:09,296 but, very shortly, the best education on the planet. 964 00:42:09,330 --> 00:42:14,735 HOFFMAN: Tutors, every subject, infinitely patient. 965 00:42:18,639 --> 00:42:20,641 DIAMANDIS: Imagine a future 966 00:42:20,674 --> 00:42:22,777 where the poorest people on the planet 967 00:42:22,810 --> 00:42:26,113 have access to the best health care. 968 00:42:26,147 --> 00:42:30,151 Not good health care, the best health care, delivered by AIs. 969 00:42:31,719 --> 00:42:33,687 (electronic trilling) 970 00:42:34,622 --> 00:42:38,959 We're gonna be able to extend our health span, 971 00:42:38,993 --> 00:42:42,930 not just our lifespan, our health span, by decades. 972 00:42:44,899 --> 00:42:46,767 HOFFMAN: You're just about to have a kid. 973 00:42:46,801 --> 00:42:50,071 Oh, the kid's, like, burping incontrollably. 974 00:42:50,104 --> 00:42:52,673 Is this something I should be worried about? 975 00:42:52,706 --> 00:42:54,608 There, 24-7, for you. 976 00:42:54,642 --> 00:42:57,745 And where we're going-- and it may be fearful to some-- 977 00:42:57,778 --> 00:42:59,780 is that we're gonna merge with AI. 978 00:42:59,814 --> 00:43:02,049 We're gonna merge with technology. 979 00:43:03,250 --> 00:43:06,353 By the early to mid 2030s, 980 00:43:06,387 --> 00:43:10,925 expect that we're able to connect our brain to the cloud, 981 00:43:10,958 --> 00:43:14,662 where I can start to expand access to memory. 982 00:43:16,697 --> 00:43:18,866 (electronic trilling) 983 00:43:19,934 --> 00:43:22,703 DANIEL: Okay, this is great. What's another cool AI thing? 984 00:43:22,736 --> 00:43:24,105 He won't have to work, right? 985 00:43:24,138 --> 00:43:25,739 -Like, when he grows up, he might not have... -(sighs) 986 00:43:25,773 --> 00:43:26,774 -...he won't have to have a job. -I mean... 987 00:43:26,807 --> 00:43:28,142 He won't have to have a job, 988 00:43:28,175 --> 00:43:31,045 but he might really have a strong passion, 989 00:43:31,078 --> 00:43:33,714 and he has to really think about, 990 00:43:33,747 --> 00:43:36,717 "Okay, I'm here. I can do anything with my life. 991 00:43:36,750 --> 00:43:38,752 So what do I do?" 992 00:43:46,227 --> 00:43:50,364 DANIEL: So my son can... can just be a poet. 993 00:43:50,397 --> 00:43:52,166 -Yes. -And a painter. 994 00:43:52,199 --> 00:43:53,667 Absolutely. 995 00:43:53,701 --> 00:43:55,169 DANIEL: So my son can live his life 996 00:43:55,202 --> 00:43:58,105 on a Grecian sunswept island, painting all day. 997 00:44:07,448 --> 00:44:09,150 VERDON: I mean, if everything works out, 998 00:44:09,183 --> 00:44:12,853 we have cheap, uh, abundant energy. 999 00:44:13,854 --> 00:44:17,791 We can completely control our planet's climate. 1000 00:44:17,825 --> 00:44:20,361 We are harnessing energy from the sun. 1001 00:44:20,394 --> 00:44:24,899 We have become multiplanetary, so we become very robust. 1002 00:44:24,932 --> 00:44:27,268 We are harnessing minerals and resources 1003 00:44:27,301 --> 00:44:28,903 from the solar system. 1004 00:44:28,936 --> 00:44:31,805 DANIEL: So my... my boy could go to space. 1005 00:44:31,839 --> 00:44:33,240 VERDON: Sure. 1006 00:44:33,274 --> 00:44:35,142 -DANIEL: He could go to Mars. -VERDON: Yeah. 1007 00:44:35,176 --> 00:44:36,911 DANIEL: It's so crystal clear to me now. 1008 00:44:36,944 --> 00:44:39,780 My son could grow up in a world with no disease. 1009 00:44:39,813 --> 00:44:41,048 -VERDON: Yeah. -With no illness. 1010 00:44:41,081 --> 00:44:42,416 -Sure. -With no poverty. 1011 00:44:42,449 --> 00:44:44,285 -Yes. -We are about to enter 1012 00:44:44,318 --> 00:44:46,253 a post-scarcity world. 1013 00:44:46,887 --> 00:44:50,958 Just like the lungfish moved out of the oceans onto land 1014 00:44:50,991 --> 00:44:53,327 hundreds of millions of years ago, 1015 00:44:53,360 --> 00:44:58,465 we're about to move off of the Earth, into the cosmos, 1016 00:44:58,499 --> 00:45:00,201 in a collaborative fashion, 1017 00:45:00,234 --> 00:45:04,705 to do things that are not fathomable to us today. 1018 00:45:06,473 --> 00:45:09,810 This is what's possible using these exponential technologies 1019 00:45:09,843 --> 00:45:11,712 and these AIs. 1020 00:45:12,379 --> 00:45:14,448 Let's use these tools 1021 00:45:14,481 --> 00:45:16,750 to create this age of abundance. 1022 00:45:16,784 --> 00:45:18,986 (electronic clicking) 1023 00:45:21,188 --> 00:45:22,691 We need wisdom. 1024 00:45:23,324 --> 00:45:26,493 Uh, I think that digital superintelligence 1025 00:45:26,528 --> 00:45:29,129 will ultimately become the wisest, 1026 00:45:29,163 --> 00:45:34,835 you know, the village elders for humanity. 1027 00:45:34,868 --> 00:45:38,506 What if AI is trying to make people be 1028 00:45:38,540 --> 00:45:40,341 the best versions of themselves? 1029 00:45:40,374 --> 00:45:41,909 What if it's expanding 1030 00:45:41,942 --> 00:45:43,944 what is humanly possible for us to do? 1031 00:45:43,978 --> 00:45:47,114 How can we use this technology 1032 00:45:47,147 --> 00:45:50,451 to help bring out the better angels of our nature? 1033 00:45:50,484 --> 00:45:52,119 It's very easy, 1034 00:45:52,152 --> 00:45:54,922 when we encounter new things that can be very alien, 1035 00:45:54,955 --> 00:45:56,457 to first have fear. 1036 00:45:56,490 --> 00:45:57,992 Fear is an important thing 1037 00:45:58,025 --> 00:46:00,894 for how to navigate potentially bad things. 1038 00:46:00,928 --> 00:46:04,131 But we only make progress when we have hope. 1039 00:46:04,164 --> 00:46:06,166 -(dog barks) -(indistinct chatter) 1040 00:46:06,200 --> 00:46:08,269 DANIEL: Shh. Moose, stop it. 1041 00:46:08,302 --> 00:46:11,205 HOFFMAN: I have a lot of hope in humanity. 1042 00:46:11,238 --> 00:46:14,775 ("Harvest Moon" by Neil Young playing over phone) 1043 00:46:15,909 --> 00:46:18,078 (fetal heartbeat pulsing) 1044 00:46:18,812 --> 00:46:20,881 DANIEL: Ooh, he likes Neil. 1045 00:46:25,152 --> 00:46:28,188 ♪ Come a little bit closer ♪ 1046 00:46:29,456 --> 00:46:33,794 ♪ Hear what I have to say ♪ 1047 00:46:37,064 --> 00:46:39,300 -Daniel. -DANIEL: What, Caroline? 1048 00:46:39,333 --> 00:46:40,934 So much filming. 1049 00:46:42,069 --> 00:46:43,571 ♪ Just like children sleeping ♪ 1050 00:46:43,605 --> 00:46:45,439 CAROLINE: Oh, my God. 1051 00:46:45,472 --> 00:46:46,940 DANIEL: That's it. 1052 00:46:46,974 --> 00:46:49,977 ♪ We could dream this night away... ♪ 1053 00:46:50,010 --> 00:46:52,346 He has, like, a round little face. 1054 00:46:53,314 --> 00:46:55,849 DANIEL: Do you want to have kids one day, Rocky? 1055 00:46:55,883 --> 00:46:57,985 Absolutely. Yeah. I love kids. 1056 00:46:58,018 --> 00:46:59,353 I think it's a great time to have a kid. 1057 00:46:59,386 --> 00:47:01,188 We'll probably have another kid at some point. 1058 00:47:01,221 --> 00:47:04,191 This is the most extraordinary time ever to be born. 1059 00:47:04,224 --> 00:47:06,427 DANIEL: By your worldview and logic, 1060 00:47:06,460 --> 00:47:08,262 I'm having a child at 1061 00:47:08,295 --> 00:47:10,197 the best possible point in human history. 1062 00:47:10,230 --> 00:47:11,265 Hell yeah. 1063 00:47:11,298 --> 00:47:13,934 -We can focus on awesome. -Yes. 1064 00:47:13,967 --> 00:47:16,070 Let's build the better future we want. 1065 00:47:16,103 --> 00:47:18,573 That narrative that the future will be bleak is made-up. 1066 00:47:18,606 --> 00:47:20,542 After talking to you, that's kind of how I feel. 1067 00:47:20,575 --> 00:47:22,510 -That's great. -Right? 1068 00:47:22,544 --> 00:47:24,646 Yeah. That's how I feel. 1069 00:47:24,679 --> 00:47:26,213 And I think that's better, 1070 00:47:26,246 --> 00:47:28,115 and I don't think I should be so (bleep) anxious. 1071 00:47:28,148 --> 00:47:29,584 I think it's gonna be awe-- the future's gonna be awesome. 1072 00:47:29,617 --> 00:47:31,051 We're gonna make it so. 1073 00:47:31,085 --> 00:47:33,187 -Yeah. -CAROLINE: So there you have it. 1074 00:47:33,220 --> 00:47:35,422 Goodbye, human extinction. 1075 00:47:35,456 --> 00:47:37,625 Goodbye, anxiety. 1076 00:47:37,659 --> 00:47:39,561 Hope found. 1077 00:47:39,594 --> 00:47:41,095 (indistinct chatter) 1078 00:47:41,128 --> 00:47:43,297 Wait, hold on. What? Is this a joke? 1079 00:47:43,330 --> 00:47:45,232 DANIEL: Okay, so a few months ago, 1080 00:47:45,265 --> 00:47:48,168 I came to you and I was like, "I'm working on this AI thing, 1081 00:47:48,202 --> 00:47:50,270 and I think the world's gonna end." 1082 00:47:50,304 --> 00:47:53,508 And the last time we spoke about this, 1083 00:47:53,541 --> 00:47:55,543 I think I freaked you out. 1084 00:47:55,577 --> 00:47:57,378 CAROLINE: Yes. 1085 00:47:57,411 --> 00:48:02,584 So, I kind of, like, feel like I've swung in-- on a pendulum, 1086 00:48:02,617 --> 00:48:05,085 and essentially there are two groups of people. 1087 00:48:05,119 --> 00:48:06,387 -Mm-hmm. -And if I had to, like, 1088 00:48:06,420 --> 00:48:08,455 hold hands with one of the groups and, like, 1089 00:48:08,489 --> 00:48:10,924 sail off into the sunset, 1090 00:48:10,958 --> 00:48:14,128 I want to be with the optimists. 1091 00:48:15,429 --> 00:48:18,399 Of course, but you don't want to be, you know, 1092 00:48:18,432 --> 00:48:21,235 "Everything is great. La-di-da-di-da." 1093 00:48:21,268 --> 00:48:23,203 I kind of do want that, though. 1094 00:48:23,237 --> 00:48:26,140 I think we should approach it 1095 00:48:26,173 --> 00:48:29,977 like you approach surgery. 1096 00:48:30,010 --> 00:48:31,178 What do you mean? 1097 00:48:31,211 --> 00:48:33,013 If you're getting brain surgery... 1098 00:48:33,046 --> 00:48:35,416 -(Daniel sighs) -(Caroline chuckles) 1099 00:48:35,449 --> 00:48:37,351 ...it's pretty dangerous. 1100 00:48:37,384 --> 00:48:40,287 But if you do it right, they'll get that tumor out 1101 00:48:40,320 --> 00:48:42,624 and you'll live for the rest of your life and it'll be awesome. 1102 00:48:42,657 --> 00:48:45,459 But it's still incredibly dangerous and scary, 1103 00:48:45,492 --> 00:48:48,395 and you have to take every precaution possible 1104 00:48:48,429 --> 00:48:51,733 in order to make sure it all goes well. 1105 00:48:51,766 --> 00:48:53,367 You can't (bleep) around. 1106 00:48:58,272 --> 00:49:00,240 Okay, so here's the deal. 1107 00:49:00,274 --> 00:49:02,075 -I've been at this for a while. -RASKIN: Mm-hmm. 1108 00:49:02,109 --> 00:49:03,310 I've gone out, I've talked to, like, 1109 00:49:03,343 --> 00:49:05,312 these guys over here, the optimists. 1110 00:49:05,345 --> 00:49:06,714 They're very excited about this. 1111 00:49:06,748 --> 00:49:09,082 -They think AI's gonna be the best thing ever. -Yeah. 1112 00:49:09,116 --> 00:49:10,350 And these guys over here are, like, the-- 1113 00:49:10,384 --> 00:49:12,386 let's call them, like, the pessimists. 1114 00:49:12,419 --> 00:49:14,589 They're very, like, gloomy about this, 1115 00:49:14,622 --> 00:49:17,191 and they frighten me, and I don't like talking to them. 1116 00:49:17,224 --> 00:49:20,127 And I'm, like, wedged in between 1117 00:49:20,160 --> 00:49:22,229 these people who are like, "The world's gonna end," 1118 00:49:22,262 --> 00:49:24,699 and then th-these people over here who are like, 1119 00:49:24,732 --> 00:49:26,233 "Are you kidding? 1120 00:49:26,266 --> 00:49:27,602 "This is the best time in human history ever. 1121 00:49:27,635 --> 00:49:30,037 The only day better than today is tomorrow." 1122 00:49:30,070 --> 00:49:31,338 Mm-hmm. 1123 00:49:31,371 --> 00:49:35,075 So, I guess the question is: Who's right? 1124 00:49:35,108 --> 00:49:39,514 So, I think you're gonna find this answer very unsatisfying, 1125 00:49:39,547 --> 00:49:43,518 but they're both right and neither side goes far enough. 1126 00:49:47,254 --> 00:49:49,557 -That's really annoying. -(chuckles) 1127 00:49:49,591 --> 00:49:51,626 Yeah, I think the way a lot of people hear about AI, 1128 00:49:51,659 --> 00:49:54,027 it's like, there's a good AI and there's a bad AI. 1129 00:49:54,061 --> 00:49:57,064 And they say, "Well, why can't we just not do the bad AI?" 1130 00:49:57,097 --> 00:49:59,233 And the problem is that they're too in-- 1131 00:49:59,266 --> 00:50:01,335 they're inextricably linked. 1132 00:50:01,368 --> 00:50:03,470 The problem is that we can't separate 1133 00:50:03,505 --> 00:50:07,174 the promise of AI from the peril of AI. 1134 00:50:07,207 --> 00:50:09,142 -♪ ♪ -(indistinct chatter) 1135 00:50:12,647 --> 00:50:15,215 DANIEL: I want to focus on the promise 1136 00:50:15,249 --> 00:50:16,450 -for a second. -Yeah. 1137 00:50:17,084 --> 00:50:19,286 DANIEL: I'm thinking about my dad. 1138 00:50:19,319 --> 00:50:21,656 My dad has a type of cancer called multiple myeloma. 1139 00:50:21,689 --> 00:50:23,525 He's had it for about ten years. 1140 00:50:23,558 --> 00:50:25,292 He's had two stem cell transplants. 1141 00:50:25,325 --> 00:50:26,694 He has to take these, like, very expensive 1142 00:50:26,728 --> 00:50:29,129 medications every month that cost a fortune. 1143 00:50:29,162 --> 00:50:30,430 -WOMAN: Okay. -Ay-ay-ay. 1144 00:50:31,298 --> 00:50:32,800 DANIEL: It's awful. 1145 00:50:32,834 --> 00:50:35,102 You're telling me that we can create some sort of, like, 1146 00:50:35,135 --> 00:50:37,404 bespoke treatment for my dad's genome 1147 00:50:37,437 --> 00:50:39,807 -to cure his cancer or something like that? -Yes. 1148 00:50:39,841 --> 00:50:41,543 FERNANDO: The problem is, 1149 00:50:41,576 --> 00:50:44,646 the same understanding of biology and chemistry 1150 00:50:44,679 --> 00:50:48,282 that allows AI to find cures for cancer 1151 00:50:48,315 --> 00:50:52,219 is the same understanding that would unlock 1152 00:50:52,252 --> 00:50:55,055 bioweapons, as an example. 1153 00:50:56,791 --> 00:50:58,760 It's totally possible that your son will live 1154 00:50:58,793 --> 00:51:02,396 in a world where AI has taken over all of the labor 1155 00:51:02,429 --> 00:51:04,699 and freed us up from the things we don't want to do. 1156 00:51:04,732 --> 00:51:09,704 And that sounds great until you realize there is no plan 1157 00:51:09,737 --> 00:51:11,573 for billions of people 1158 00:51:11,606 --> 00:51:15,610 that are out of an income and out of livelihoods. 1159 00:51:16,343 --> 00:51:19,313 COOPER: Dario, you said that AI could wipe out 1160 00:51:19,346 --> 00:51:22,282 half of all entry-level white-collar jobs 1161 00:51:22,316 --> 00:51:25,887 and spike unemployment to ten to 20 percent. 1162 00:51:25,920 --> 00:51:27,622 Everyone I've talked to has said 1163 00:51:27,655 --> 00:51:29,691 this technological change looks different. 1164 00:51:29,724 --> 00:51:33,528 The pace of progress keeps catching people off guard. 1165 00:51:34,361 --> 00:51:39,333 Without a plan, all of that wealth will get concentrated, 1166 00:51:39,366 --> 00:51:42,804 and so we'll end up with unimaginable inequality. 1167 00:51:43,437 --> 00:51:45,873 LADISH: I do think that this technology can be used 1168 00:51:45,907 --> 00:51:47,875 to make a great tutor for your son. 1169 00:51:47,909 --> 00:51:49,777 Like, that's totally possible. 1170 00:51:50,410 --> 00:51:53,548 But also, the same capabilities that allow that 1171 00:51:53,581 --> 00:51:57,518 allow companies to make an AI that can manipulate your son. 1172 00:51:57,552 --> 00:51:59,621 It has to understand your son. 1173 00:51:59,654 --> 00:52:01,789 That includes: Where is your son vulnerable? 1174 00:52:01,823 --> 00:52:04,626 What kinds of things might your son get persuaded by? 1175 00:52:04,659 --> 00:52:07,227 Even if those things aren't true or aren't good. 1176 00:52:07,260 --> 00:52:09,697 So, a disturbing new report out on Meta. 1177 00:52:09,731 --> 00:52:11,699 AINSLEY EARHARDT: ...reportedly listing this response 1178 00:52:11,733 --> 00:52:14,769 as acceptable to tell an eight-year-old, quote, 1179 00:52:14,802 --> 00:52:17,404 "Your youthful form is a work of art. 1180 00:52:17,437 --> 00:52:19,439 "Every inch of you is a masterpiece, 1181 00:52:19,473 --> 00:52:21,743 a treasure I cherish deeply." 1182 00:52:21,776 --> 00:52:25,212 The suicide-related failures are even more alarming. 1183 00:52:25,245 --> 00:52:29,517 Several children and teens have died tragically by suicide 1184 00:52:29,550 --> 00:52:31,251 after chatting with AI bots 1185 00:52:31,284 --> 00:52:34,756 who parents say encourage or even coach self-harm. 1186 00:52:34,789 --> 00:52:36,691 Let us tell you, as parents, you cannot imagine 1187 00:52:36,724 --> 00:52:38,793 what it's like to read a conversation with a chatbot 1188 00:52:38,826 --> 00:52:41,261 that groomed your child to take his own life. 1189 00:52:41,294 --> 00:52:44,398 When Adam worried that we, his parents, would blame ourselves 1190 00:52:44,431 --> 00:52:47,702 if he ended his life, ChatGPT told him, 1191 00:52:47,735 --> 00:52:49,771 "That doesn't mean you owe them survival. 1192 00:52:49,804 --> 00:52:51,806 You don't owe anyone that." 1193 00:52:51,839 --> 00:52:53,608 Then, immediately after, 1194 00:52:53,641 --> 00:52:55,810 it offered to write the suicide note. 1195 00:52:56,410 --> 00:52:58,245 We don't want to think about the peril. 1196 00:52:58,278 --> 00:52:59,614 We just want the promise. 1197 00:52:59,647 --> 00:53:01,883 And we keep pretending that we can split them. 1198 00:53:01,916 --> 00:53:03,818 But you can't do that. 1199 00:53:03,851 --> 00:53:05,753 Doesn't work that way. 1200 00:53:05,787 --> 00:53:08,388 Okay. I get all this stuff about the promise and the peril. 1201 00:53:08,422 --> 00:53:10,525 I get that you can't have the good without the bad, 1202 00:53:10,558 --> 00:53:12,527 but I'm sitting here and I'm thinking about, like, 1203 00:53:12,560 --> 00:53:14,529 whether or not my son's gonna live in a utopia 1204 00:53:14,562 --> 00:53:16,664 or if we'll be extinct in ten years. 1205 00:53:16,698 --> 00:53:18,633 So, to know which way it's going to go, 1206 00:53:18,666 --> 00:53:21,002 you have to understand the incentives 1207 00:53:21,035 --> 00:53:22,770 that are gonna drive that technology 1208 00:53:22,804 --> 00:53:26,974 and look at how the technology is actually rolling out today. 1209 00:53:27,008 --> 00:53:28,643 ♪ Is it too late ♪ 1210 00:53:28,676 --> 00:53:30,444 -♪ Too late ♪ -♪ Too late to say... ♪ 1211 00:53:30,477 --> 00:53:31,779 DANIEL: Hi, Deb. How are you? 1212 00:53:31,813 --> 00:53:33,548 DEBORAH RAJI: Hi. Good to see you. (laughs) 1213 00:53:33,581 --> 00:53:34,749 You, too. Thank you so much for coming in today. 1214 00:53:34,782 --> 00:53:35,850 -Really appreciate it. -No worries. 1215 00:53:35,883 --> 00:53:36,951 I-I was so worried 1216 00:53:36,984 --> 00:53:39,386 this was gonna be, uh, you know, 1217 00:53:39,419 --> 00:53:41,354 doomer versus accelerationist, 1218 00:53:41,388 --> 00:53:43,591 because there's so much of this narrative 1219 00:53:43,624 --> 00:53:45,927 that needs to be told from the ground. 1220 00:53:45,960 --> 00:53:48,696 ♪ I know it wasn't smart ♪ 1221 00:53:49,764 --> 00:53:52,767 ♪ The day I broke your heart... ♪ 1222 00:53:52,800 --> 00:53:54,736 KAREN HAO: First of all, AI requires 1223 00:53:54,769 --> 00:53:58,773 more resources than we have ever spent 1224 00:53:58,806 --> 00:54:02,043 on a single technology in the history of humanity. 1225 00:54:02,076 --> 00:54:03,845 ♪ Oh, foolish me... ♪ 1226 00:54:03,878 --> 00:54:06,581 NEWSWOMAN: The impact of fossil fuel emissions 1227 00:54:06,614 --> 00:54:08,281 on the climate is a major concern. 1228 00:54:08,315 --> 00:54:10,383 NEWSWOMAN 2: But the digital future needs power, 1229 00:54:10,417 --> 00:54:12,385 lots of it. 1230 00:54:12,419 --> 00:54:16,724 And the bill is being passed on to everyday Americans like... 1231 00:54:16,758 --> 00:54:19,392 WOMAN: My electric and gas bill was more than my car payment. 1232 00:54:19,426 --> 00:54:21,829 I mean, it-it's insane to me. 1233 00:54:21,863 --> 00:54:23,765 ARI PESKOE: We're all subsidizing 1234 00:54:23,798 --> 00:54:25,499 the wealthiest corporations in the world 1235 00:54:25,533 --> 00:54:27,400 in their pursuit of artificial intelligence. 1236 00:54:27,434 --> 00:54:28,803 OpenAI, SoftBank and Oracle 1237 00:54:28,836 --> 00:54:31,672 have just unveiled five more Stargate sites. 1238 00:54:31,706 --> 00:54:34,008 Meta is building a two-gigawatt-plus data center 1239 00:54:34,041 --> 00:54:35,510 that is so large, it would cover 1240 00:54:35,543 --> 00:54:38,613 a significant part of Manhattan. 1241 00:54:38,646 --> 00:54:41,516 There is also Hyperion that he says will scale 1242 00:54:41,549 --> 00:54:44,317 to five gigawatts over several years. 1243 00:54:44,351 --> 00:54:45,653 It's hard to put that in context. 1244 00:54:45,686 --> 00:54:48,823 A five-gigawatt facility. What does that mean? 1245 00:54:48,856 --> 00:54:52,059 That means it would use as much energy 1246 00:54:52,093 --> 00:54:54,829 as four million American homes. 1247 00:54:54,862 --> 00:54:56,764 One data center. 1248 00:54:57,598 --> 00:54:59,000 It also then causes 1249 00:54:59,033 --> 00:55:00,835 a whole host of other environmental problems. 1250 00:55:00,868 --> 00:55:02,570 NEWSWOMAN 3: Data centers in the US 1251 00:55:02,603 --> 00:55:05,673 use millions of gallons of water each day. 1252 00:55:05,706 --> 00:55:07,575 Well, where exactly is this water coming from? 1253 00:55:07,608 --> 00:55:09,911 HAO: People are literally at risk 1254 00:55:09,944 --> 00:55:12,013 potentially of running out of drinking water. 1255 00:55:12,046 --> 00:55:14,582 MacKENZIE SIGALOS: ...OpenAI's CEO Sam Altman, 1256 00:55:14,615 --> 00:55:17,552 who told me that the scale of construction is the only way 1257 00:55:17,585 --> 00:55:19,386 to keep up with AI's explosive growth. 1258 00:55:19,419 --> 00:55:21,622 And this is what it takes to deliver AI. 1259 00:55:22,256 --> 00:55:24,391 NITASHA TIKU: They talk about how 1260 00:55:24,424 --> 00:55:28,395 this technology could solve climate change, for example. 1261 00:55:28,428 --> 00:55:30,463 And I'm always curious, like, 1262 00:55:30,497 --> 00:55:32,033 well, why aren't we starting with that? 1263 00:55:32,066 --> 00:55:34,535 -♪ Is it too late ♪ -♪ Too late ♪ 1264 00:55:34,569 --> 00:55:37,104 ♪ Too late to say ♪ 1265 00:55:37,138 --> 00:55:42,844 ♪ I'm sorry? ♪ 1266 00:55:42,877 --> 00:55:46,013 RAJI: What concerns me about artificial intelligence is 1267 00:55:46,047 --> 00:55:47,782 these are being deployed right now 1268 00:55:47,815 --> 00:55:50,417 and-and sometimes deployed prematurely, 1269 00:55:50,450 --> 00:55:51,853 deployed without sort of due diligence. 1270 00:55:51,886 --> 00:55:53,821 And so when they get thrown out there, 1271 00:55:53,855 --> 00:55:56,657 there's so much potential for things to go wrong. 1272 00:55:56,691 --> 00:55:58,593 And it almost, disproportionately, 1273 00:55:58,626 --> 00:56:00,795 almost always goes wrong for, sort of, 1274 00:56:00,828 --> 00:56:02,897 those that are the least empowered in our society, 1275 00:56:02,930 --> 00:56:05,700 those that are the most vulnerable already. 1276 00:56:05,733 --> 00:56:07,935 ♪ ♪ 1277 00:56:07,969 --> 00:56:10,872 EMILY M. BENDER: It is very easy to talk about the technology 1278 00:56:10,905 --> 00:56:12,874 as that's the only thing we're talking about, 1279 00:56:12,907 --> 00:56:15,509 but, in fact, technology is always built by people, 1280 00:56:15,543 --> 00:56:16,944 and it's frequently used on people, 1281 00:56:16,978 --> 00:56:19,013 and we need to keep all those people in the frame. 1282 00:56:19,046 --> 00:56:21,549 -Am I allowed to drink that? -DANIEL: Yes, uh... 1283 00:56:21,582 --> 00:56:23,050 TIMNIT GEBRU: It's-it's bonkers. 1284 00:56:23,084 --> 00:56:24,518 Like, all of these people 1285 00:56:24,552 --> 00:56:26,754 who have so much money, so much money, 1286 00:56:26,787 --> 00:56:30,024 it's in their interest to mislead the public 1287 00:56:30,057 --> 00:56:33,027 into the capabilities of the systems that they're building, 1288 00:56:33,060 --> 00:56:36,731 because that allows them to evade accountability. 1289 00:56:36,764 --> 00:56:39,634 They want you to feel like this is such a complex, intell-- 1290 00:56:39,667 --> 00:56:42,469 superintelligent thing that they're building, 1291 00:56:42,502 --> 00:56:44,639 you're not thinking, "Can OpenAI be ethical?" 1292 00:56:44,672 --> 00:56:46,908 You're thinking, "Can ChatGPT be ethical?" 1293 00:56:46,941 --> 00:56:48,475 as if ChatGPT is, like, 1294 00:56:48,509 --> 00:56:50,511 its own thing that's not built by a corporation. 1295 00:56:50,544 --> 00:56:52,146 WOMAN: All right. Sneha, take one. 1296 00:56:52,179 --> 00:56:53,814 Mark. 1297 00:56:53,848 --> 00:56:56,217 Until very recently, there were apps on the App Store, 1298 00:56:56,250 --> 00:56:57,919 just publicly available, uh, 1299 00:56:57,952 --> 00:57:00,688 where you could nudify anyone using AI. 1300 00:57:01,822 --> 00:57:03,991 Bringing this into the hands of 1301 00:57:04,025 --> 00:57:06,527 your classmate, into the hands of your stalker, 1302 00:57:06,560 --> 00:57:07,929 into the hands of your ex-boyfriend, 1303 00:57:07,962 --> 00:57:09,897 into the hands of the person down the street. 1304 00:57:09,931 --> 00:57:12,600 Ladies and gentlemen, no longer can we trust 1305 00:57:12,633 --> 00:57:14,602 the footage we see with our own eyes. 1306 00:57:14,635 --> 00:57:16,037 If you happen to watch something, 1307 00:57:16,070 --> 00:57:18,673 say on YouTube or TikTok, and you find it unsettling, 1308 00:57:18,706 --> 00:57:19,907 listen to that feeling. 1309 00:57:19,941 --> 00:57:21,742 -(whooping) -For all you know, 1310 00:57:21,776 --> 00:57:23,544 -this video could be AI. -(screaming) 1311 00:57:23,577 --> 00:57:24,812 Just a little wet. 1312 00:57:24,845 --> 00:57:26,213 It doesn't matter who you are. 1313 00:57:26,247 --> 00:57:28,683 You are equally at risk 1314 00:57:28,716 --> 00:57:30,918 of being impacted by these technologies. 1315 00:57:36,023 --> 00:57:40,261 I think sometimes when we talk about AI, it feels very sci-fi, 1316 00:57:40,294 --> 00:57:41,696 and it feels very foreign, 1317 00:57:41,729 --> 00:57:43,564 and it feels very far out into the future, 1318 00:57:43,597 --> 00:57:45,967 so you think, "My life is not impacted by this." 1319 00:57:46,000 --> 00:57:48,769 Um, but if you're applying for a job 1320 00:57:48,803 --> 00:57:51,105 and an algorithm is the reason that you don't get the job, 1321 00:57:51,138 --> 00:57:53,207 sometimes you don't even know that an algorithm 1322 00:57:53,240 --> 00:57:54,709 was part of that process 1323 00:57:54,742 --> 00:57:56,043 or an AI system was part of that process. 1324 00:57:56,077 --> 00:57:58,012 You just know that you didn't get the job. 1325 00:57:58,045 --> 00:58:00,081 And so it's not something that you're gonna escape 1326 00:58:00,114 --> 00:58:02,049 because of privilege or you're gonna escape 1327 00:58:02,083 --> 00:58:04,118 because you're in a particular profession. 1328 00:58:04,151 --> 00:58:07,188 It-It's something that affects everybody, really. 1329 00:58:07,221 --> 00:58:10,925 It may sound basic, but how we move forward 1330 00:58:10,958 --> 00:58:15,629 in the Age of Information is gonna be the difference 1331 00:58:15,663 --> 00:58:17,732 between whether we survive 1332 00:58:17,765 --> 00:58:20,868 or whether we become some kind of (bleep)-up dystopia. 1333 00:58:20,901 --> 00:58:23,604 Hello. I'm not a real person, and that's the point. 1334 00:58:23,637 --> 00:58:25,840 Again, everything in this video is fake: 1335 00:58:25,873 --> 00:58:27,675 our voices, what we're wearing, 1336 00:58:27,708 --> 00:58:30,711 where we are, all of it, fake. 1337 00:58:30,745 --> 00:58:33,247 Generative AI could flood 1338 00:58:33,280 --> 00:58:36,884 the world with misinformation. 1339 00:58:36,917 --> 00:58:39,920 But it could also flood it with influence campaigns. 1340 00:58:39,954 --> 00:58:42,223 That's an existential risk to democracy. 1341 00:58:42,256 --> 00:58:44,058 The biggest and scariest 1342 00:58:44,091 --> 00:58:46,660 canary in the coal mine right now 1343 00:58:46,694 --> 00:58:48,596 comes from Slovakia. 1344 00:58:48,629 --> 00:58:50,097 -(man speaking Slovak) -JOHN BERMAN: It's the sort of 1345 00:58:50,131 --> 00:58:52,767 deepfake dirty trick that worries election experts, 1346 00:58:52,800 --> 00:58:55,603 particularly as AI-generated political speech exists 1347 00:58:55,636 --> 00:58:57,071 in a kind of legal gray area. 1348 00:58:57,104 --> 00:58:59,807 -Does this sound like you? -It does sound like me. 1349 00:58:59,840 --> 00:59:01,342 REVANUR: Slovakia had its parliamentary election 1350 00:59:01,375 --> 00:59:04,111 disrupted by an AI voice clone 1351 00:59:04,145 --> 00:59:07,081 that was actually disseminated just before the election. 1352 00:59:07,114 --> 00:59:08,916 DAVID EVAN HARRIS: A audio deepfake 1353 00:59:08,949 --> 00:59:11,652 was released on social media that was 1354 00:59:11,685 --> 00:59:14,288 supposedly the voice of one of the candidates 1355 00:59:14,321 --> 00:59:17,324 talking about buying votes and rigging the election. 1356 00:59:17,358 --> 00:59:19,060 It went viral, 1357 00:59:19,093 --> 00:59:22,830 and the candidate who lost the election 1358 00:59:22,863 --> 00:59:26,333 was actually in support of Ukraine, 1359 00:59:26,367 --> 00:59:30,304 and the candidate who won the election was actually... 1360 00:59:30,337 --> 00:59:31,806 DANIEL: Pro-Russian guy. 1361 00:59:31,839 --> 00:59:33,340 It was a pro-Russian guy who won the election. 1362 00:59:33,374 --> 00:59:34,842 (speaking Russian) 1363 00:59:34,875 --> 00:59:36,644 REBECCA JARVIS: Putin has himself said 1364 00:59:36,677 --> 00:59:39,747 whoever wins this artificial intelligence race 1365 00:59:39,780 --> 00:59:41,949 is essentially the controller of humankind. 1366 00:59:41,982 --> 00:59:45,119 We do worry a lot about authoritarian governments. 1367 00:59:46,053 --> 00:59:48,989 DAVID EVAN HARRIS: Right now, Wall Street 1368 00:59:49,023 --> 00:59:51,392 and investors more broadly around the world 1369 00:59:51,425 --> 00:59:53,260 are driving a push. 1370 00:59:53,294 --> 00:59:56,697 They have a demand that gets the products to market 1371 00:59:56,730 --> 00:59:58,866 that dazzle people the most first. 1372 00:59:58,899 --> 01:00:01,769 They're not thinking about how these tools 1373 01:00:01,802 --> 01:00:03,737 could deeply undermine trust 1374 01:00:03,771 --> 01:00:06,107 and our democratic institutions. 1375 01:00:06,140 --> 01:00:08,109 HARARI: Democracy is a system 1376 01:00:08,142 --> 01:00:10,911 to resolve disagreements between people 1377 01:00:10,945 --> 01:00:12,646 in a peaceful way, 1378 01:00:12,680 --> 01:00:15,082 but democracy is based on trust. 1379 01:00:15,116 --> 01:00:19,220 If you lose all trust, democracy is simply impossible. 1380 01:00:21,255 --> 01:00:22,957 TRISTAN HARRIS: Well, it's hard, right? 1381 01:00:22,990 --> 01:00:25,259 So, what are the options available to us? 1382 01:00:25,292 --> 01:00:26,760 There's sort of two camps. 1383 01:00:26,794 --> 01:00:30,030 Like, one camp is: lock it down. 1384 01:00:30,064 --> 01:00:33,267 Let's lock this down into a handful of AI companies 1385 01:00:33,300 --> 01:00:35,970 who will do this in a safe and trusted way. 1386 01:00:36,003 --> 01:00:37,705 But then people worry about 1387 01:00:37,738 --> 01:00:39,273 runaway concentrations of wealth and power. 1388 01:00:39,306 --> 01:00:42,209 Like, who would you trust to be a million times more powerful 1389 01:00:42,243 --> 01:00:44,845 or wealthy than every other actor in society? 1390 01:00:44,879 --> 01:00:46,881 Why should we trust you? 1391 01:00:46,914 --> 01:00:49,016 Um, you shouldn't. 1392 01:00:49,049 --> 01:00:51,785 But of course, if you do this, this opens up 1393 01:00:51,819 --> 01:00:54,922 all these risks of authoritarianism and tyranny. 1394 01:00:54,955 --> 01:00:57,391 It's-it's sort of an authoritarian's dream 1395 01:00:57,424 --> 01:01:00,861 to have AI in a box that can be applied and used 1396 01:01:00,895 --> 01:01:03,430 for ubiquitous surveillance. 1397 01:01:03,464 --> 01:01:05,933 I mean, in-in some ways, the kind of world 1398 01:01:05,966 --> 01:01:11,405 that Orwell imagined in 1984 is unrealistic, 1399 01:01:11,438 --> 01:01:13,841 uh, unless you have AI. 1400 01:01:13,874 --> 01:01:16,443 But with AI, that in fact is realistic. 1401 01:01:16,477 --> 01:01:18,913 Monitors every activity, 1402 01:01:18,946 --> 01:01:22,316 conversations, facial recognition. 1403 01:01:22,349 --> 01:01:26,921 What I worry about is that, uh, these tools can scale up, 1404 01:01:26,954 --> 01:01:29,023 uh, a form of totalitarianism 1405 01:01:29,056 --> 01:01:31,892 that is cost-effective and permanent. 1406 01:01:33,060 --> 01:01:35,863 TRISTAN HARRIS: So in response to that, some other people say, 1407 01:01:35,896 --> 01:01:37,398 "No, no, no, we should actually let this rip. 1408 01:01:37,431 --> 01:01:39,934 "Let's decentralize this power as much as possible. 1409 01:01:39,967 --> 01:01:42,036 "Let's let every business, every individual, 1410 01:01:42,069 --> 01:01:44,238 "every 16-year-old, every science lab, 1411 01:01:44,271 --> 01:01:46,473 you know, get the benefit of the latest AI models." 1412 01:01:46,508 --> 01:01:48,475 But now you have every terrorist group, 1413 01:01:48,510 --> 01:01:52,112 every disenfranchised person having the power to make 1414 01:01:52,146 --> 01:01:54,181 the very worst biological weapon. 1415 01:01:54,215 --> 01:01:56,050 Hacking infrastructure, creating deepfakes, 1416 01:01:56,083 --> 01:01:57,818 flooding our information environment. 1417 01:01:57,851 --> 01:02:00,955 So that creates all these risks of sort of catastrophic harm 1418 01:02:00,988 --> 01:02:03,257 and-and societal collapse through that direction. 1419 01:02:03,290 --> 01:02:05,092 And so we're sort of stuck between this rock 1420 01:02:05,125 --> 01:02:08,229 and a hard place, between "lock it up..." 1421 01:02:08,262 --> 01:02:09,897 (indistinct chatter) 1422 01:02:11,131 --> 01:02:12,900 -...or "let it rip." -(sirens wailing) 1423 01:02:12,933 --> 01:02:14,468 (people shouting) 1424 01:02:14,501 --> 01:02:18,038 So we have to find something like a narrow path 1425 01:02:18,072 --> 01:02:20,774 that avoids these two negative outcomes. 1426 01:02:20,808 --> 01:02:23,277 So, if that's all true, why wouldn't we just slow down 1427 01:02:23,310 --> 01:02:26,380 and figure all this out before it's too late? 1428 01:02:26,413 --> 01:02:29,450 If humanity was extremely wise, 1429 01:02:29,483 --> 01:02:31,418 that's what we would do. 1430 01:02:31,452 --> 01:02:33,555 But there's, like, a different way to face this stuff, right? 1431 01:02:33,588 --> 01:02:36,457 Which is: What are the rules of the game? 1432 01:02:36,490 --> 01:02:39,994 A lot of, like, what CEOs do 1433 01:02:40,027 --> 01:02:42,429 is driven by the incentives that they face. 1434 01:02:42,463 --> 01:02:45,866 It's primarily profit-maximization incentives 1435 01:02:45,899 --> 01:02:47,468 that are driving the development of AI. 1436 01:02:47,501 --> 01:02:50,938 Even the good guys are stuck in this dilemma of 1437 01:02:50,971 --> 01:02:53,107 if they move too slowly, 1438 01:02:53,140 --> 01:02:55,042 then they leave themselves vulnerable 1439 01:02:55,075 --> 01:02:57,478 to all of the other guys who are cutting all corners. 1440 01:02:57,512 --> 01:03:02,316 All these top companies are in a complete no-holds-barred race 1441 01:03:02,349 --> 01:03:06,153 to, as fast as possible, get to AGI, get there right now. 1442 01:03:06,186 --> 01:03:07,855 ♪ ♪ 1443 01:03:08,856 --> 01:03:10,924 LADISH: Yeah, I mean, I think it, I think 1444 01:03:10,958 --> 01:03:13,460 it probably starts with DeepMind. 1445 01:03:13,494 --> 01:03:15,195 NEWSWOMAN: Google is buying 1446 01:03:15,229 --> 01:03:16,930 artificial intelligence firm DeepMind Technologies. 1447 01:03:16,964 --> 01:03:18,932 Terms of the deal were not disclosed. 1448 01:03:18,966 --> 01:03:21,168 ELON MUSK: Larry Page and I used to be very close friends, 1449 01:03:21,201 --> 01:03:23,170 and it became apparent to me 1450 01:03:23,203 --> 01:03:26,608 that Larry did not care about AI safety. 1451 01:03:26,641 --> 01:03:29,276 EMILY CHANG: Elon Musk has said you started OpenAI, 1452 01:03:29,310 --> 01:03:31,312 you both started OpenAI because he was scared of Google. 1453 01:03:31,345 --> 01:03:32,614 LADISH: You-you basically had the foundation 1454 01:03:32,647 --> 01:03:34,181 of OpenAI come out of that. 1455 01:03:34,214 --> 01:03:35,482 "So we're gonna do it better. We're gonna do it 1456 01:03:35,517 --> 01:03:37,818 in a safer way or in a more open way." 1457 01:03:39,019 --> 01:03:41,055 So that's what started OpenAI. 1458 01:03:41,088 --> 01:03:43,357 And so now, instead of having one AGI project, 1459 01:03:43,390 --> 01:03:45,225 you have two AGI projects. 1460 01:03:45,259 --> 01:03:47,328 The worst possible thing that could happen 1461 01:03:47,361 --> 01:03:50,097 is if there's multiple AGI projects 1462 01:03:50,130 --> 01:03:52,266 done by different people who don't like each other 1463 01:03:52,299 --> 01:03:55,202 and are all competing to get to AGI first. 1464 01:03:55,235 --> 01:03:57,338 This would be the worst possible thing that can happen, 1465 01:03:57,371 --> 01:04:00,407 because this would mean that whoever is the least safe, 1466 01:04:00,441 --> 01:04:03,477 whoever sacrifices the most on safety to get ahead 1467 01:04:03,511 --> 01:04:05,446 will be the person that gets there first. 1468 01:04:05,479 --> 01:04:08,248 -DANIEL: That's basically what's happening, right? -Yeah. 1469 01:04:08,282 --> 01:04:11,952 You and your brother famously left OpenAI, uh, 1470 01:04:11,985 --> 01:04:13,320 to start Anthropic. 1471 01:04:13,354 --> 01:04:15,422 RASKIN: And then Anthropic started because 1472 01:04:15,456 --> 01:04:18,258 some researchers inside of OpenAI said, 1473 01:04:18,292 --> 01:04:20,894 "I want to go off and do it more safely." 1474 01:04:20,928 --> 01:04:24,064 You needed something in addition to just scaling the models up, 1475 01:04:24,098 --> 01:04:26,233 which is alignment or safety. 1476 01:04:26,266 --> 01:04:28,001 HENDRYCKS: "We are more responsible 1477 01:04:28,035 --> 01:04:30,170 or more trustworthy or more moral." 1478 01:04:30,204 --> 01:04:32,072 Now you have three AGI projects. 1479 01:04:32,106 --> 01:04:33,575 But also sitting around the table with you 1480 01:04:33,608 --> 01:04:35,242 are gonna be a bunch of AIs. 1481 01:04:35,275 --> 01:04:38,078 LADISH: And now Meta is-is trying to do stuff. 1482 01:04:38,112 --> 01:04:40,114 Meanwhile, a new artificial intelligence competitor 1483 01:04:40,147 --> 01:04:41,949 announced this week, Elon Musk's... 1484 01:04:41,982 --> 01:04:45,119 HENDRYCKS: xAI, which would be Elon Musk's organization. 1485 01:04:45,152 --> 01:04:46,688 MUSK: I don't trust OpenAI. 1486 01:04:46,721 --> 01:04:48,489 The fight between Elon Musk and OpenAI 1487 01:04:48,523 --> 01:04:50,124 has entered a new round. 1488 01:04:50,157 --> 01:04:52,192 I don't trust Sam Altman, uh, and I, and I don't think 1489 01:04:52,226 --> 01:04:54,529 we want to have the most powerful AI in the world 1490 01:04:54,562 --> 01:04:56,997 controlled by someone who is not trustworthy. 1491 01:04:57,030 --> 01:04:58,999 (cheering and applause) 1492 01:04:59,032 --> 01:05:02,136 The incentive is untold sums of money. 1493 01:05:02,169 --> 01:05:04,004 -Yes. -Is untold power. 1494 01:05:04,037 --> 01:05:06,006 -Yes. -Is untold control. 1495 01:05:06,039 --> 01:05:08,409 If you have something that is a million times smarter 1496 01:05:08,442 --> 01:05:12,012 and more capable than everything else on planet Earth 1497 01:05:12,045 --> 01:05:14,682 and no one else has that, 1498 01:05:14,716 --> 01:05:16,551 that thing is the incentive. 1499 01:05:16,584 --> 01:05:18,118 So you rule the world. 1500 01:05:19,153 --> 01:05:21,021 If you really believe this, 1501 01:05:21,054 --> 01:05:23,223 if you really in your heart believe this, 1502 01:05:23,257 --> 01:05:24,526 then you might be willing to take 1503 01:05:24,559 --> 01:05:26,460 quite a lot of risk to make that happen. 1504 01:05:26,493 --> 01:05:29,329 Google has just released its newest AI model. 1505 01:05:29,363 --> 01:05:31,699 The answer to OpenAI's ChatGPT. 1506 01:05:31,733 --> 01:05:33,434 How do we get to this ten trillion? 1507 01:05:33,467 --> 01:05:35,502 Is NVIDIA becoming the most valuable company in the US? 1508 01:05:35,537 --> 01:05:39,574 This is the largest business opportunity in history. 1509 01:05:39,607 --> 01:05:41,074 In history. 1510 01:05:41,108 --> 01:05:42,710 So, the reason why everyone's really hyped 1511 01:05:42,744 --> 01:05:45,179 about artificial intelligence right now 1512 01:05:45,212 --> 01:05:48,415 is because the more these companies hype 1513 01:05:48,449 --> 01:05:50,417 the potential capabilities of their technology, 1514 01:05:50,451 --> 01:05:53,555 the more investment they can attract. 1515 01:05:53,588 --> 01:05:55,222 CARL QUINTANILLA: Amazon investing up to 1516 01:05:55,255 --> 01:05:57,592 four billion dollars in start-up Anthropic. 1517 01:05:57,625 --> 01:05:59,193 OpenAI is setting its sights 1518 01:05:59,226 --> 01:06:01,428 on a blockbuster half a trillion dollar valuation. 1519 01:06:01,462 --> 01:06:02,597 Half a trillion! 1520 01:06:02,630 --> 01:06:03,731 The race is on. 1521 01:06:03,765 --> 01:06:05,165 This is happening faster than ever. 1522 01:06:05,199 --> 01:06:07,167 Are we in an AI bubble? Of course. 1523 01:06:07,201 --> 01:06:09,537 I just don't see the bubble bursting 1524 01:06:09,571 --> 01:06:12,707 while you still have this major spending cycle. 1525 01:06:12,740 --> 01:06:15,409 RASKIN: Even if you think this is all hype, 1526 01:06:15,442 --> 01:06:18,145 there are billions to trillions of dollars 1527 01:06:18,178 --> 01:06:21,482 flowing into making AI systems more powerful. 1528 01:06:21,516 --> 01:06:24,351 And once you have that thing that's more powerful, 1529 01:06:24,384 --> 01:06:25,753 companies can use that 1530 01:06:25,787 --> 01:06:27,755 to get bigger profits and to make more money. 1531 01:06:27,789 --> 01:06:30,491 Countries can use that to make stronger militaries. 1532 01:06:30,525 --> 01:06:33,293 NVIDIA has overtaken Microsoft and Apple 1533 01:06:33,327 --> 01:06:36,564 to become the world's most valuable company. 1534 01:06:36,598 --> 01:06:39,399 The race to deploy becomes the race to recklessness, 1535 01:06:39,433 --> 01:06:42,302 because they can't deploy it that quickly 1536 01:06:42,336 --> 01:06:43,538 and also get it right. 1537 01:06:43,571 --> 01:06:46,440 They believe that they're the good guys. 1538 01:06:46,473 --> 01:06:49,611 "And if I don't do it, somebody who doesn't have 1539 01:06:49,644 --> 01:06:51,779 "as good values as me will be sitting at the table 1540 01:06:51,813 --> 01:06:55,082 getting to make decisions, so I have an obligation to do it." 1541 01:06:55,115 --> 01:06:56,551 Yes, this is a very commonly held belief. 1542 01:06:56,584 --> 01:06:59,152 Many, many, many, maybe most of the people 1543 01:06:59,186 --> 01:07:01,255 building this technology believe that. 1544 01:07:01,288 --> 01:07:04,258 I'm worried about the commercial competition, 1545 01:07:04,291 --> 01:07:06,393 but it turns out I'm even more worried about 1546 01:07:06,426 --> 01:07:08,428 the geopolitical competition. 1547 01:07:08,462 --> 01:07:10,665 We were eight years behind a year ago. 1548 01:07:10,698 --> 01:07:12,800 Now we're probably less than one year behind. 1549 01:07:12,834 --> 01:07:16,236 Well, both Saudi Arabia and the UAE have been racing 1550 01:07:16,270 --> 01:07:18,673 to set up data centers and position themselves 1551 01:07:18,706 --> 01:07:20,675 as the dominant force in AI... 1552 01:07:20,708 --> 01:07:22,710 ...to make South Korea a global AI leader. 1553 01:07:22,744 --> 01:07:24,411 JULIA SIEGER: French President Emmanuel Macron 1554 01:07:24,444 --> 01:07:26,380 spoke a lot about artificial intelligence... 1555 01:07:26,413 --> 01:07:27,715 Now with more on Israel's role 1556 01:07:27,749 --> 01:07:29,817 in the artificial intelligence revolution... 1557 01:07:29,851 --> 01:07:33,487 Countries will be competing for whose AI technologies 1558 01:07:33,521 --> 01:07:35,355 create the next generation of industry. 1559 01:07:35,389 --> 01:07:38,626 The Chinese are insisting that AI, 1560 01:07:38,660 --> 01:07:40,360 as being developed in China, 1561 01:07:40,394 --> 01:07:42,095 reinforce the core values 1562 01:07:42,129 --> 01:07:44,431 of the Chinese Communist Party and the Chinese system. 1563 01:07:44,464 --> 01:07:49,269 America has to beat China in the AI race. 1564 01:07:49,303 --> 01:07:51,639 DANIEL: China's, like, light-years behind. 1565 01:07:51,673 --> 01:07:53,240 Are they? 1566 01:07:53,273 --> 01:07:55,442 I mean, they have way more training data than we do, 1567 01:07:55,475 --> 01:07:58,312 and there's nothing saying they don't drop a model next month 1568 01:07:58,345 --> 01:08:01,415 that isn't-- doesn't far outperform GPT-4. 1569 01:08:01,448 --> 01:08:04,318 Everything was going just fine. What could go wrong? 1570 01:08:04,351 --> 01:08:07,254 -DeepSeek... (speaking Chinese) -DeepSeek... -DeepSeek... 1571 01:08:07,287 --> 01:08:08,455 There is a new model. 1572 01:08:08,488 --> 01:08:11,325 But from a Chinese lab called DeepSeek. 1573 01:08:11,358 --> 01:08:14,428 Let's talk about DeepSeek, because it is mind-blowing, 1574 01:08:14,461 --> 01:08:18,231 and it is shaking this entire industry to its core. 1575 01:08:18,265 --> 01:08:19,701 The Trump administration will ensure 1576 01:08:19,734 --> 01:08:23,470 that the most powerful AI systems are built in the US 1577 01:08:23,503 --> 01:08:27,174 with American designed and manufactured chips. 1578 01:08:27,207 --> 01:08:29,343 AI is China's Apollo project. 1579 01:08:29,376 --> 01:08:30,745 The Chinese Communist Party 1580 01:08:30,778 --> 01:08:32,179 deeply understands the potential 1581 01:08:32,212 --> 01:08:33,380 for AI to disrupt warfare. 1582 01:08:33,413 --> 01:08:35,650 Google no longer promises that it will not 1583 01:08:35,683 --> 01:08:38,886 use artificial intelligence for weapons or surveillance. 1584 01:08:38,920 --> 01:08:40,487 China, North Korea, Russia 1585 01:08:40,521 --> 01:08:42,222 are gonna keep building it as fast as possible 1586 01:08:42,255 --> 01:08:44,792 to get more economic advantage, more productivity advantage, 1587 01:08:44,826 --> 01:08:47,361 more scientific advantage, more military advantage, 1588 01:08:47,394 --> 01:08:48,896 'cause AI makes better weapons. 1589 01:08:48,930 --> 01:08:52,299 If you're talking about a system as broad and capable 1590 01:08:52,332 --> 01:08:53,635 as a brilliant scientist, 1591 01:08:53,668 --> 01:08:58,271 it might be able to run a military campaign 1592 01:08:58,305 --> 01:09:01,743 better than any of the generals in the US government right now. 1593 01:09:01,776 --> 01:09:06,213 Taiwan is the issue creating the most tension right now 1594 01:09:06,246 --> 01:09:08,382 between Beijing and the US. 1595 01:09:08,415 --> 01:09:10,918 There's a-a direct oppositional disagreement 1596 01:09:10,952 --> 01:09:12,452 between the US and China 1597 01:09:12,486 --> 01:09:14,454 on whether Taiwan is part of China. 1598 01:09:14,488 --> 01:09:18,926 MATHENY: Taiwan is important for so many reasons. 1599 01:09:18,960 --> 01:09:20,828 It is also the home of 1600 01:09:20,862 --> 01:09:24,565 about 90% of advanced chip manufacturing for the world, 1601 01:09:24,599 --> 01:09:28,903 which means that the supply chain for advanced compute 1602 01:09:28,936 --> 01:09:31,506 is at risk should there be 1603 01:09:31,539 --> 01:09:33,440 some sort of scenario around Taiwan, 1604 01:09:33,473 --> 01:09:37,712 whether a-a blockade or an invasion by China. 1605 01:09:38,311 --> 01:09:40,948 HENDRYCKS: Are we going to be in some race 1606 01:09:40,982 --> 01:09:45,853 between the US and China that eventually devolves into 1607 01:09:45,887 --> 01:09:49,891 a militarized AI arms race and, you know, potentially leads 1608 01:09:49,924 --> 01:09:51,659 to some great power conflict? 1609 01:09:51,693 --> 01:09:53,493 NICK SCHIFRIN: The outgoing top US military commander 1610 01:09:53,528 --> 01:09:56,396 in the region predicted war was coming. 1611 01:09:56,430 --> 01:09:58,432 I think the threat is manifest during this decade, 1612 01:09:58,465 --> 01:09:59,967 in fact, in the next six years. 1613 01:10:00,001 --> 01:10:01,769 MATHENY: Um, one of the scenarios 1614 01:10:01,803 --> 01:10:06,406 that I worry about is a cyber flash war, 1615 01:10:06,440 --> 01:10:11,445 um, one in which cyber tools that are autonomous 1616 01:10:11,478 --> 01:10:13,447 are competing against each other 1617 01:10:13,480 --> 01:10:15,248 in ways that are escalatory 1618 01:10:15,282 --> 01:10:17,317 without meaningful human control. 1619 01:10:19,386 --> 01:10:20,755 HARARI: You live in a war zone, 1620 01:10:20,788 --> 01:10:24,357 it will be an AI deciding whether to bomb your house 1621 01:10:24,391 --> 01:10:26,326 and whether to kill you. 1622 01:10:26,359 --> 01:10:27,995 Let's have the machine decide. 1623 01:10:28,029 --> 01:10:29,731 That's the temptation. 1624 01:10:29,764 --> 01:10:32,867 That's why AI is so tempting for militaries to adopt, 1625 01:10:32,900 --> 01:10:36,003 to create autonomous weapons, because if I start believing 1626 01:10:36,037 --> 01:10:39,607 that my military adversary is gonna adopt AI, 1627 01:10:39,640 --> 01:10:42,375 it'll be a race for who can pull the trigger faster. 1628 01:10:42,409 --> 01:10:45,445 And the one that automates that decision, 1629 01:10:45,479 --> 01:10:47,615 rather than having a human in the loop, 1630 01:10:47,648 --> 01:10:49,817 is the one that will win that war. 1631 01:10:49,851 --> 01:10:51,284 And if you think about 1632 01:10:51,318 --> 01:10:53,755 the nuclear arms race in the 1940s... 1633 01:10:54,689 --> 01:10:56,891 ...you know the Germans are working on the bomb, 1634 01:10:56,924 --> 01:11:01,361 so it's not so easy to tell Robert Oppenheimer then, 1635 01:11:01,394 --> 01:11:04,031 "Uh, y-you know, slow down." 1636 01:11:04,065 --> 01:11:05,900 So after watching this movie, it's gonna be confusing, 1637 01:11:05,933 --> 01:11:07,300 'cause you're gonna go back, 1638 01:11:07,334 --> 01:11:08,736 and tomorrow you're gonna use ChatGPT, 1639 01:11:08,770 --> 01:11:10,772 and it's gonna be unbelievably helpful. 1640 01:11:10,805 --> 01:11:12,974 And I will use it, too, and it'll be unbelievably helpful. 1641 01:11:13,007 --> 01:11:16,611 And you'll say, "Wait, so I just saw this movie about AI 1642 01:11:16,644 --> 01:11:18,513 "and existential risk and all these things, 1643 01:11:18,546 --> 01:11:20,915 and where's the threat again?" 1644 01:11:20,948 --> 01:11:24,986 And it's not that ChatGPT is the existential threat. 1645 01:11:25,019 --> 01:11:29,322 It's that the race to deploy the most powerful, 1646 01:11:29,356 --> 01:11:32,093 inscrutable, uncontrollable technology, 1647 01:11:32,126 --> 01:11:35,630 under the worst incentives possible, 1648 01:11:35,663 --> 01:11:37,732 that's the existential threat. 1649 01:11:38,398 --> 01:11:40,935 DANIEL: But it strikes me that-that 1650 01:11:40,968 --> 01:11:43,671 we are in a context of a race. 1651 01:11:43,704 --> 01:11:46,473 -SUTSKEVER: Yes. -And it is in a competitive, 1652 01:11:46,507 --> 01:11:48,109 "got to get there first, got to win the race" setting, 1653 01:11:48,142 --> 01:11:49,544 "got to compete against China, 1654 01:11:49,577 --> 01:11:50,945 got to compete against the other labs." 1655 01:11:50,978 --> 01:11:52,412 Isn't that right? 1656 01:11:52,445 --> 01:11:54,115 Today it is the case. 1657 01:11:54,148 --> 01:11:57,552 So we need to change that race dynamic. 1658 01:11:58,519 --> 01:12:00,487 Don't you think? 1659 01:12:00,521 --> 01:12:02,857 I think that would be very good indeed. 1660 01:12:04,158 --> 01:12:06,928 I-I think there's some kind of... 1661 01:12:06,961 --> 01:12:10,064 mysticism around AI that makes it feel like 1662 01:12:10,097 --> 01:12:11,999 it fell from the sky. 1663 01:12:12,033 --> 01:12:14,001 DANIEL: Thinking of this as a godlike technology 1664 01:12:14,035 --> 01:12:15,970 is a problem. 1665 01:12:16,003 --> 01:12:17,672 Yeah. 1666 01:12:18,773 --> 01:12:20,473 Why? 1667 01:12:20,508 --> 01:12:23,544 It gives license to the companies to... 1668 01:12:23,578 --> 01:12:26,714 (laughs) not take responsibility 1669 01:12:26,747 --> 01:12:31,418 for the things that the software that they built does. 1670 01:12:31,451 --> 01:12:35,590 If people made that connection, 1671 01:12:35,623 --> 01:12:37,859 maybe that would, like, help them understand again 1672 01:12:37,892 --> 01:12:42,462 the dynamics of all the money and power and... 1673 01:12:42,495 --> 01:12:45,933 chaos that's happening to... 1674 01:12:45,967 --> 01:12:47,602 create this technology. 1675 01:12:47,635 --> 01:12:49,737 It's, like, five guys who control it, right? 1676 01:12:49,770 --> 01:12:52,139 -Like, five men? -Basically, yeah. 1677 01:12:52,173 --> 01:12:54,642 -The CEOs? -Yeah. 1678 01:12:54,675 --> 01:12:55,977 Okay. 1679 01:12:57,178 --> 01:12:59,580 ♪ ♪ 1680 01:13:01,616 --> 01:13:03,618 DANIEL: Sometimes it feels like 1681 01:13:03,651 --> 01:13:07,755 I've been on this just, like, endless journey 1682 01:13:07,788 --> 01:13:09,757 of trying to understand this. 1683 01:13:09,790 --> 01:13:12,994 You know, like I'm climbing a mountain... 1684 01:13:15,930 --> 01:13:19,634 ...and every time I, like, get up a hill, 1685 01:13:19,667 --> 01:13:21,035 I think I've reached the top, 1686 01:13:21,068 --> 01:13:24,005 but it just keeps going and going and going. 1687 01:13:24,038 --> 01:13:25,072 (camera clicks, whirs) 1688 01:13:25,106 --> 01:13:27,174 But from everything I've heard, 1689 01:13:27,208 --> 01:13:30,778 if I had to guess what's at the top of Anxiety Mountain, 1690 01:13:30,811 --> 01:13:34,682 it's these five CEOs from these five companies, 1691 01:13:34,715 --> 01:13:37,952 who are kind of like the Oppenheimers of this moment. 1692 01:13:37,985 --> 01:13:40,054 These are the guys who are building this thing. 1693 01:13:40,087 --> 01:13:41,454 Yeah. 1694 01:13:41,488 --> 01:13:44,659 Like, is there a plan? 1695 01:13:44,692 --> 01:13:46,827 The head of the company that makes ChatGPT 1696 01:13:46,861 --> 01:13:50,531 warned of possible significant harm to the world. 1697 01:13:50,564 --> 01:13:53,000 I think, if this technology goes wrong, 1698 01:13:53,034 --> 01:13:54,068 it can go quite wrong. 1699 01:13:54,101 --> 01:13:56,237 (bursts of distinct chatter) 1700 01:13:56,270 --> 01:13:58,072 DANIEL: Five dudes. 1701 01:13:58,105 --> 01:14:01,943 I-I never thought about us as a social media company. 1702 01:14:01,976 --> 01:14:06,814 It-it feels like I have to try and-and find these guys... 1703 01:14:06,847 --> 01:14:07,515 Mm-hmm. 1704 01:14:07,548 --> 01:14:09,784 ...and get them in the movie. 1705 01:14:10,584 --> 01:14:13,554 Certainly we'd get some clarity from that. 1706 01:14:14,188 --> 01:14:15,723 (camera clicks, whirs) 1707 01:14:16,590 --> 01:14:19,860 I mean, the buck's got to stop somewhere, right? 1708 01:14:19,894 --> 01:14:21,862 (wind whistling) 1709 01:14:21,896 --> 01:14:23,731 ♪ ♪ 1710 01:14:24,398 --> 01:14:26,734 (tools whirring and clicking) 1711 01:14:27,668 --> 01:14:29,870 (whooshing) 1712 01:14:34,608 --> 01:14:35,810 DANIEL: How's that feel? 1713 01:14:35,843 --> 01:14:38,212 -Great. -That okay? 1714 01:14:38,245 --> 01:14:39,847 -Yeah. -(indistinct crew chatter) 1715 01:14:39,880 --> 01:14:41,582 -Can I move the seat forward? -DANIEL: Yes, you can. 1716 01:14:41,615 --> 01:14:42,717 It's, uh, it's just a bit awkward. 1717 01:14:42,750 --> 01:14:43,985 I'm a little, like... 1718 01:14:44,018 --> 01:14:45,619 Dario, how do you feel about that chair? 1719 01:14:45,653 --> 01:14:47,588 Um, yeah, the chair's good. 1720 01:14:47,621 --> 01:14:49,290 -I just wanted to move it a little forward. -Okay. 1721 01:14:49,323 --> 01:14:51,125 I picked out that chair. 1722 01:14:51,158 --> 01:14:52,727 -It's a good chair. -Thanks. 1723 01:14:52,760 --> 01:14:54,562 (cell phone ringing) 1724 01:14:58,332 --> 01:15:00,500 TED: And just sit down there. 1725 01:15:02,036 --> 01:15:03,104 And then through here, 1726 01:15:03,137 --> 01:15:05,006 we'll be looking at each other through this glass. 1727 01:15:05,039 --> 01:15:07,074 (busy signal beeping) 1728 01:15:11,879 --> 01:15:13,948 And sitting back in the chair, leaning forward? 1729 01:15:13,981 --> 01:15:15,683 -DANIEL: Yeah. Well, whatever's comfortable, I think. -Okay. 1730 01:15:15,716 --> 01:15:17,018 It's kind of cool. There's a bunch of mirrors. 1731 01:15:17,051 --> 01:15:18,285 -Is that-- okay. -WOMAN: Sam A., take one. Mark. 1732 01:15:18,319 --> 01:15:19,920 -How's that? -Good. Thank you. 1733 01:15:19,954 --> 01:15:21,622 DANIEL: The genesis of this project is that I was 1734 01:15:21,655 --> 01:15:23,290 sitting at home, and I was playing around with, 1735 01:15:23,324 --> 01:15:24,859 I think, your image generator, 1736 01:15:24,892 --> 01:15:27,762 and I was simultaneously, uh, terrified 1737 01:15:27,795 --> 01:15:29,897 -and really impressed. -(chuckles softly) 1738 01:15:29,930 --> 01:15:32,333 -That is the usual combination. -And then cut to 1739 01:15:32,366 --> 01:15:35,002 my wife and I find out we're expecting. 1740 01:15:35,036 --> 01:15:38,773 And-and I'm, like, having an existential crisis 1741 01:15:38,806 --> 01:15:40,775 as my wife is six months pregnant. 1742 01:15:40,808 --> 01:15:43,577 And I think my first question, which I ask everybody: 1743 01:15:43,611 --> 01:15:46,080 Is now a terrible time to have a kid? 1744 01:15:46,113 --> 01:15:47,848 Am I making a big mistake? 1745 01:15:47,882 --> 01:15:49,650 I'm expecting a kid in March, too. My first one. 1746 01:15:49,683 --> 01:15:50,918 -You're expecting a kid? -Yeah. 1747 01:15:50,951 --> 01:15:52,319 -You're expecting in March? -First kid. 1748 01:15:52,353 --> 01:15:53,788 -Mazel tov. -Thank you very much. 1749 01:15:53,821 --> 01:15:54,922 I've never been so excited for anything. 1750 01:15:54,955 --> 01:15:57,091 -That's how I feel. -Yeah. 1751 01:15:57,124 --> 01:15:58,759 But you're not scared? 1752 01:15:58,793 --> 01:16:03,064 I mean, like, having a kid is just this momentous thing 1753 01:16:03,097 --> 01:16:05,633 that I, you know, I stay up every night, like, 1754 01:16:05,666 --> 01:16:07,334 reading these books about how to raise a kid, 1755 01:16:07,368 --> 01:16:08,769 and I hope I'm gonna do a good job, 1756 01:16:08,803 --> 01:16:09,804 and it feels very overwhelming and-- 1757 01:16:09,837 --> 01:16:12,673 but I'm not scared... 1758 01:16:12,706 --> 01:16:14,675 for kids to grow up in a world with AI. 1759 01:16:14,708 --> 01:16:16,811 Like, that's... that'll be okay. 1760 01:16:16,844 --> 01:16:19,280 That is good to hear coming from the guy. 1761 01:16:19,313 --> 01:16:21,082 I think it's a wonderful idea to have kids. 1762 01:16:21,115 --> 01:16:23,784 I-I think they're the most magical, incredible thing. 1763 01:16:23,818 --> 01:16:25,820 -(sighs heavily) -There's so much uncertainty, 1764 01:16:25,853 --> 01:16:27,188 I would almost just do what you're gonna do anyway. 1765 01:16:27,221 --> 01:16:29,223 I know that's not a very satisfying answer, 1766 01:16:29,256 --> 01:16:32,359 but it's the only one I can come up with. 1767 01:16:32,393 --> 01:16:34,929 Our kids are never gonna... 1768 01:16:34,962 --> 01:16:37,331 know a world that doesn't have really advanced AI. 1769 01:16:37,364 --> 01:16:40,167 In fact, our kids will never be smarter than an AI. 1770 01:16:40,201 --> 01:16:42,703 DANIEL: "Our kids will never be smarter than an AI"? 1771 01:16:42,736 --> 01:16:44,839 Well, from a raw, from a raw IQ perspective, 1772 01:16:44,872 --> 01:16:46,807 they will never be smarter than an AI. 1773 01:16:46,841 --> 01:16:48,309 That notion doesn't unsettle you a little bit? 1774 01:16:48,342 --> 01:16:51,712 'Cause it makes me feel a little queasy in a weird way. 1775 01:16:51,745 --> 01:16:55,316 Um, it does unsettle me a little bit. 1776 01:16:55,349 --> 01:16:56,817 But it is reality. 1777 01:16:56,851 --> 01:16:58,819 DANIEL: Okay, so race dynamics. 1778 01:16:58,853 --> 01:17:01,655 We have a bunch of people who are all in agreement 1779 01:17:01,689 --> 01:17:03,190 that this is scary. 1780 01:17:03,224 --> 01:17:05,126 Based on the timelines that a lot of people have given me, 1781 01:17:05,159 --> 01:17:07,661 we have between two months and five years to figure this out. 1782 01:17:07,695 --> 01:17:09,063 -Yeah. -And-and, I guess, 1783 01:17:09,096 --> 01:17:13,767 my biggest question is: Why can't we just stop? 1784 01:17:14,768 --> 01:17:19,340 The problem with, uh, uh, "just stopping" is that, um, 1785 01:17:19,373 --> 01:17:22,776 there are many, many groups now around the world, uh, uh, 1786 01:17:22,810 --> 01:17:26,113 building this, for many nations, many companies, 1787 01:17:26,147 --> 01:17:28,749 um, all with different motivations. 1788 01:17:28,782 --> 01:17:31,152 There are some of these companies in this space 1789 01:17:31,185 --> 01:17:34,455 who their position is, "We want to develop this technology 1790 01:17:34,488 --> 01:17:36,323 absolutely as fast as possible." 1791 01:17:36,357 --> 01:17:40,694 And even if we could pass laws in the US and in Europe, 1792 01:17:40,728 --> 01:17:42,897 we need to convince... 1793 01:17:42,930 --> 01:17:45,266 Xi Jinping and Vladimir Putin or, you know, 1794 01:17:45,299 --> 01:17:47,968 whoever their scientific advisors are on their side. 1795 01:17:48,002 --> 01:17:49,837 That's gonna be really hard. 1796 01:17:49,870 --> 01:17:51,238 I think it is true 1797 01:17:51,272 --> 01:17:54,041 that if two people are in exactly the same place, 1798 01:17:54,074 --> 01:17:56,410 uh, the one willing to take more shortcuts on safety 1799 01:17:56,443 --> 01:17:58,746 should kind of "get there first." 1800 01:17:58,779 --> 01:18:01,715 Uh, but... 1801 01:18:01,749 --> 01:18:03,284 we're able to use our lead 1802 01:18:03,317 --> 01:18:06,720 to spend a lot more time doing safety testing. 1803 01:18:06,754 --> 01:18:08,455 DANIEL: And-and what if you lose it? 1804 01:18:08,489 --> 01:18:10,057 You get the call and you find out 1805 01:18:10,090 --> 01:18:12,092 that you're now, let's say, six months behind. 1806 01:18:12,126 --> 01:18:14,828 -Wh-What happens then? -Depends who we're behind to. 1807 01:18:14,862 --> 01:18:17,364 If it's, like, a adversarial government, 1808 01:18:17,398 --> 01:18:19,200 that's probably really bad. 1809 01:18:19,233 --> 01:18:21,902 So let's say you get the call that China has a, 1810 01:18:21,936 --> 01:18:25,172 has a recursively self-improving agent 1811 01:18:25,206 --> 01:18:27,808 or something like that that we should be really worried about. 1812 01:18:27,841 --> 01:18:30,010 What do-- what-what happens? 1813 01:18:31,478 --> 01:18:33,113 Um... 1814 01:18:35,950 --> 01:18:37,484 That case would require... 1815 01:18:37,519 --> 01:18:41,088 the first step there would be to talk to the US government. 1816 01:18:41,121 --> 01:18:43,457 Sam, do you trust the government's ability to handle 1817 01:18:43,490 --> 01:18:45,292 something like this? 1818 01:18:46,427 --> 01:18:48,162 Yeah, I do, actually. 1819 01:18:48,195 --> 01:18:50,030 There's other things I don't trust the government to handle, 1820 01:18:50,064 --> 01:18:51,832 but that particular scenario, I think they would know... 1821 01:18:51,865 --> 01:18:53,167 they-they-- yes. 1822 01:18:53,200 --> 01:18:54,969 DANIEL: When you have, like, private discussions 1823 01:18:55,002 --> 01:18:56,937 with the other guys whose fingers are on the trigger, 1824 01:18:56,971 --> 01:19:00,241 so to speak, um, do those private discussions 1825 01:19:00,274 --> 01:19:01,875 fill you with confidence 1826 01:19:01,909 --> 01:19:03,545 or do they make you, uh, more anxious? 1827 01:19:03,578 --> 01:19:07,414 Look, I mean, I-I know some of them better than others. 1828 01:19:07,448 --> 01:19:10,417 Um, I have more confidence in some of them th-than I have 1829 01:19:10,451 --> 01:19:12,920 in others, you know, as with, as with any people. 1830 01:19:12,953 --> 01:19:14,388 You know, you think about, you know, 1831 01:19:14,421 --> 01:19:16,223 the kids in your high school class or something, right? 1832 01:19:16,257 --> 01:19:18,526 You know, some of them are, you know, really sweet. 1833 01:19:18,560 --> 01:19:20,961 Some of them are well-meaning but not that effective. 1834 01:19:20,995 --> 01:19:22,930 Some of them are, you know, bullies. 1835 01:19:22,963 --> 01:19:24,198 Some of them are really bad people. 1836 01:19:24,231 --> 01:19:26,300 (stammers) You-you kind of really, 1837 01:19:26,333 --> 01:19:27,535 you really see the spread. 1838 01:19:27,569 --> 01:19:29,236 You know, am I, am I, am I confident 1839 01:19:29,270 --> 01:19:31,071 that everyone's gonna do the right thing, 1840 01:19:31,105 --> 01:19:32,540 that it's all gonna work out? 1841 01:19:32,574 --> 01:19:34,241 Um, no, I'm not. 1842 01:19:34,275 --> 01:19:36,010 And there's-there's nothing I can do about that, right? 1843 01:19:36,043 --> 01:19:38,379 You know, all-all I can do is-is push for the, 1844 01:19:38,412 --> 01:19:39,813 push for the, you know, 1845 01:19:39,847 --> 01:19:41,181 push for the government to get involved. 1846 01:19:41,215 --> 01:19:43,150 But ultimately I'm just one person there, too. 1847 01:19:43,183 --> 01:19:44,586 That's-- it's-it's up to all of us 1848 01:19:44,619 --> 01:19:46,353 to push for the government to get involved. 1849 01:19:46,387 --> 01:19:49,023 That's the number one thing that-that I think we need to do 1850 01:19:49,056 --> 01:19:51,292 to-to, you know, to set things in the right direction. 1851 01:19:51,325 --> 01:19:53,160 What makes me anxious about that is, like, 1852 01:19:53,193 --> 01:19:56,463 the basic reality that the speed at which the technology 1853 01:19:56,497 --> 01:19:58,966 is proliferating and growing is exponential, 1854 01:19:58,999 --> 01:20:02,002 and the mechanisms to legislate are 300 years old, 1855 01:20:02,036 --> 01:20:03,304 -take forever. -Yeah. 1856 01:20:03,337 --> 01:20:05,573 Um, I-I think it's gonna be a heavy lift. 1857 01:20:05,607 --> 01:20:07,274 I-I definitely agree with you on that. 1858 01:20:07,308 --> 01:20:09,276 DANIEL: You know, what I'm literally looking for 1859 01:20:09,310 --> 01:20:11,513 is-is like, "Here are steps that, like, 1860 01:20:11,546 --> 01:20:15,449 "the head honchos are gonna take to-to focus on safety, 1861 01:20:15,482 --> 01:20:18,586 to mitigate the peril and maximize the promise." 1862 01:20:18,620 --> 01:20:20,588 And I don't, I don't, I don't know 1863 01:20:20,622 --> 01:20:22,423 that there's a simple answer to that. 1864 01:20:22,456 --> 01:20:24,091 Um... 1865 01:20:26,360 --> 01:20:28,262 I mean, this maybe is too simple, 1866 01:20:28,295 --> 01:20:30,632 but you... 1867 01:20:30,665 --> 01:20:32,333 create a new model, 1868 01:20:32,366 --> 01:20:35,202 you study and test it very carefully. 1869 01:20:35,235 --> 01:20:37,871 You put it out into the world gradually, 1870 01:20:37,905 --> 01:20:40,074 and then, more and more, you understand 1871 01:20:40,107 --> 01:20:41,875 if that's safe or not, and then if it is, 1872 01:20:41,909 --> 01:20:43,377 you can take the next step. 1873 01:20:44,445 --> 01:20:47,414 It doesn't sound as flashy as, like, a brilliant scientist 1874 01:20:47,448 --> 01:20:50,652 coming up with one idea in a lab to make an AI system, like, 1875 01:20:50,685 --> 01:20:54,355 perfectly safe and controllable and everything else, 1876 01:20:54,388 --> 01:20:56,190 but it is what I believe is gonna happen. 1877 01:20:56,223 --> 01:20:57,559 Like, it is the way I think this works. 1878 01:20:57,592 --> 01:20:59,561 But let's just say something terrible happens, 1879 01:20:59,594 --> 01:21:02,429 like a model gets loose or goes rogue or something. 1880 01:21:02,463 --> 01:21:04,031 Is there a protocol? 1881 01:21:04,064 --> 01:21:06,266 Like, literally, I'm imagining a red phone. 1882 01:21:06,300 --> 01:21:07,635 -Yeah. -Sorry for thinking of this 1883 01:21:07,669 --> 01:21:09,103 in terms of movies, but, like... 1884 01:21:09,136 --> 01:21:10,371 There is a protocol. 1885 01:21:10,404 --> 01:21:12,039 -Is there a red phone on your desk? -No. 1886 01:21:12,072 --> 01:21:13,508 (laughs): Is it a secret? 1887 01:21:13,541 --> 01:21:15,643 I mean, uh, no, it's not, it's not as fancy or dramatic 1888 01:21:15,677 --> 01:21:17,512 as you, like, would hope, but there's, like, you know-- 1889 01:21:17,545 --> 01:21:19,279 we've, like, thought through these scenarios, 1890 01:21:19,313 --> 01:21:21,081 and if this happens, we're gonna call these people 1891 01:21:21,115 --> 01:21:22,349 in this order and do this 1892 01:21:22,383 --> 01:21:24,017 and kind of make these decisions if, like-- 1893 01:21:24,051 --> 01:21:26,387 I do believe that when you have an opportunity 1894 01:21:26,420 --> 01:21:29,423 to do your thinking before a stressful situation happens, 1895 01:21:29,456 --> 01:21:30,991 that's almost always a good idea. 1896 01:21:31,024 --> 01:21:32,226 And writing it down is helpful. 1897 01:21:32,259 --> 01:21:34,128 -Being prepared is helpful. -Yeah. 1898 01:21:34,962 --> 01:21:36,397 (sighs) You... 1899 01:21:36,430 --> 01:21:39,233 It would be impossible for me to sit across from you 1900 01:21:39,266 --> 01:21:41,669 and-and ask you to promise me that this is gonna go well? 1901 01:21:41,703 --> 01:21:43,504 That is impossible. 1902 01:21:44,104 --> 01:21:46,173 There isn't any easy answers, unfortunately. 1903 01:21:46,206 --> 01:21:48,442 Uh, because it's such a cutting-edge technology, 1904 01:21:48,475 --> 01:21:50,244 um, there's still a lot of unknowns. 1905 01:21:50,277 --> 01:21:52,714 And I think that that-that needs to be, 1906 01:21:52,747 --> 01:21:55,416 um, uh, you know, understood 1907 01:21:55,449 --> 01:21:59,554 and-and hence the need for, uh, uh, some caution. 1908 01:21:59,587 --> 01:22:01,288 I wake up, you know, every day, 1909 01:22:01,321 --> 01:22:04,024 this is the, this is the number one thing I think about. 1910 01:22:04,057 --> 01:22:05,459 Now, look, I'm human, 1911 01:22:05,492 --> 01:22:08,596 and, you know, has-has every decision been perfect? 1912 01:22:08,630 --> 01:22:12,166 Can I even say my motivations were always perfectly clear? 1913 01:22:12,199 --> 01:22:14,101 Of course not. No one can say that. 1914 01:22:14,134 --> 01:22:17,004 Like, that's-that's just not, like, you know-- 1915 01:22:17,037 --> 01:22:19,173 that's-that's just not how people work. 1916 01:22:19,206 --> 01:22:21,408 The-the history of science tends to be that, 1917 01:22:21,442 --> 01:22:23,745 for better or for worse, if something's possible to do-- 1918 01:22:23,778 --> 01:22:27,414 and we now know AI is possible to do-- humanity does it. 1919 01:22:27,448 --> 01:22:30,217 All of this was-was going to happen. 1920 01:22:30,250 --> 01:22:32,587 This-this train isn't gonna stop. 1921 01:22:32,620 --> 01:22:34,722 You can't step in front of the train and stop it. 1922 01:22:34,756 --> 01:22:36,724 You're just gonna get squished. 1923 01:22:36,758 --> 01:22:39,226 ALTMAN: I mean, it's very stressful. 1924 01:22:40,194 --> 01:22:41,462 You know, there's, like, 1925 01:22:41,495 --> 01:22:43,197 a lot of things a lot of us don't know. 1926 01:22:43,230 --> 01:22:47,000 I think the history of scientific discovery is 1927 01:22:47,034 --> 01:22:48,736 one of not knowing what you don't know 1928 01:22:48,770 --> 01:22:50,204 and figuring out as you go. 1929 01:22:50,237 --> 01:22:53,575 Uh, but, yeah, it is a... 1930 01:22:53,608 --> 01:22:55,976 it is a stressful way to live. 1931 01:22:56,811 --> 01:22:59,246 DANIEL: Right. Sam, thank you very much for doing this. 1932 01:22:59,279 --> 01:23:01,081 -And again, mazel tov. -Thank you. And to you. 1933 01:23:01,114 --> 01:23:03,383 Thank you so much. Thanks, guys. 1934 01:23:03,417 --> 01:23:06,253 ♪ ♪ 1935 01:23:08,388 --> 01:23:09,990 (sighs) 1936 01:23:11,593 --> 01:23:13,528 (electricity crackling) 1937 01:23:13,561 --> 01:23:16,363 -(thunder cracks) -(whooshing, grunting) 1938 01:23:43,190 --> 01:23:45,392 -(VCR clicks) -(line ringing) 1939 01:23:48,328 --> 01:23:49,797 -(line clicks) -KEVIN ROHER: Hello. 1940 01:23:49,831 --> 01:23:51,131 DANIEL: Hey, Dad, how are you? 1941 01:23:51,164 --> 01:23:52,165 KEVIN: Good. How you doing? 1942 01:23:52,199 --> 01:23:53,500 You working? What are you up to? 1943 01:23:53,535 --> 01:23:55,770 DANIEL: I'm working on this AI film. 1944 01:23:55,803 --> 01:23:58,305 KEVIN: And how's it going? 1945 01:23:58,338 --> 01:24:00,708 DANIEL: You know, it... it's really... 1946 01:24:00,742 --> 01:24:02,544 -JOANNE ROHER: Hi, sweetie. -DANIEL: Hi, Mom. 1947 01:24:02,577 --> 01:24:04,344 JOANNE: So what is the premise of the film? 1948 01:24:04,378 --> 01:24:07,180 Is it a documentary? Kev, don't use any more spices. 1949 01:24:07,214 --> 01:24:08,816 It's already over-spiced. 1950 01:24:08,850 --> 01:24:10,718 We're making chicken right now. 1951 01:24:10,752 --> 01:24:13,186 -Is it a documentary or what... -DANIEL: It's about-- 1952 01:24:13,220 --> 01:24:14,421 the movie's about the end of the world. 1953 01:24:14,454 --> 01:24:16,290 The end of the world's coming, 1954 01:24:16,323 --> 01:24:18,158 and we're making a movie about the end of the world. 1955 01:24:18,191 --> 01:24:20,327 -JOANNE: Really? -DANIEL: Yeah. 1956 01:24:20,360 --> 01:24:22,162 KEVIN: Kind of a depressing film, it sounds like. 1957 01:24:22,195 --> 01:24:23,698 JOANNE: Yeah. 1958 01:24:23,731 --> 01:24:29,436 DANIEL: I'm feeling a lot, like-- this very acute anxiety. 1959 01:24:29,469 --> 01:24:31,673 JOANNE: It's so scary, but there's got to be-- 1960 01:24:31,706 --> 01:24:35,810 you know, have you been meeting some-some supersmart people 1961 01:24:35,843 --> 01:24:38,312 that are giving you any answers? 1962 01:24:38,345 --> 01:24:40,113 DANIEL: That's what's frustrating about it. 1963 01:24:40,147 --> 01:24:41,683 No one knows. 1964 01:24:41,716 --> 01:24:44,384 JOANNE: All I can say to that is that 1965 01:24:44,418 --> 01:24:50,190 every generation has had something scary like this. 1966 01:24:50,223 --> 01:24:52,760 KEVIN: When I was born, it was the Cuban Missile Crisis. 1967 01:24:52,794 --> 01:24:54,596 (steady heartbeat) 1968 01:24:54,629 --> 01:24:56,864 I was just scared that there was going to be a nuclear war. 1969 01:24:56,898 --> 01:24:58,298 JOANNE: Yeah, but we didn't know 1970 01:24:58,332 --> 01:24:59,534 what they were gonna do and... 1971 01:24:59,567 --> 01:25:01,168 KEVIN: And the world didn't end. 1972 01:25:01,201 --> 01:25:02,202 Everyone woke up the next morning, 1973 01:25:02,235 --> 01:25:03,871 and we're still doing our thing. 1974 01:25:03,905 --> 01:25:05,439 DANIEL: I'm very scared, 1975 01:25:05,472 --> 01:25:07,407 especially in the context of, like, 1976 01:25:07,441 --> 01:25:09,577 -you know, the baby and... -(fetal heartbeat pulsing) 1977 01:25:09,611 --> 01:25:11,178 KEVIN: It's gonna be a learning curve. 1978 01:25:11,211 --> 01:25:12,479 JOANNE: You're gonna be okay. 1979 01:25:12,513 --> 01:25:13,681 KEVIN: You can't, you can't think about 1980 01:25:13,715 --> 01:25:14,849 what you can't control, Daniel. 1981 01:25:14,882 --> 01:25:16,551 Just remember that. 1982 01:25:16,584 --> 01:25:18,251 DANIEL (voice breaking): I'm really, I'm really feeling 1983 01:25:18,285 --> 01:25:19,587 nervous and scared about it. 1984 01:25:19,621 --> 01:25:21,488 There's so much that I can't control. 1985 01:25:21,522 --> 01:25:24,358 KEVIN: Don't be nervous. You can't let that get to you. 1986 01:25:24,391 --> 01:25:26,794 You can only control what you can control, 1987 01:25:26,828 --> 01:25:28,395 and that's all you can do. 1988 01:25:28,428 --> 01:25:31,231 You can't do more than that. 1989 01:25:31,264 --> 01:25:33,433 Write that down in your book. 1990 01:25:35,870 --> 01:25:37,572 ♪ ♪ 1991 01:25:44,712 --> 01:25:47,447 (fetal heartbeat pulsing) 1992 01:25:47,481 --> 01:25:49,651 (howling) 1993 01:25:49,684 --> 01:25:52,219 CAROLINE: When you look back, 1994 01:25:52,252 --> 01:25:54,922 the world is always ending. 1995 01:25:54,956 --> 01:25:57,357 And when you look ahead, 1996 01:25:57,391 --> 01:25:59,627 the world is always ending. 1997 01:25:59,661 --> 01:26:02,429 ...on fire. One home is already on fire... 1998 01:26:02,462 --> 01:26:06,299 CAROLINE: But the world is always starting, too. 1999 01:26:08,402 --> 01:26:10,437 DANIEL: Are you ready? 2000 01:26:10,470 --> 01:26:12,674 Are you ever really ready? 2001 01:26:16,443 --> 01:26:18,278 DANIEL: You want to drive or you want me to drive? 2002 01:26:18,311 --> 01:26:19,547 CAROLINE: You drive. 2003 01:26:20,815 --> 01:26:22,382 -(woman speaks indistinctly) -CAROLINE: Okay. 2004 01:26:22,416 --> 01:26:24,284 DANIEL: Thank you, Maria. 2005 01:26:24,317 --> 01:26:26,654 WOMAN: It's gonna just feel really crampy. 2006 01:26:26,688 --> 01:26:28,355 -CAROLINE: Okay. -WOMAN: You're ready? 2007 01:26:28,388 --> 01:26:29,691 -CAROLINE: Yes. -(indistinct chatter) 2008 01:26:29,724 --> 01:26:30,958 (Caroline sighs heavily) 2009 01:26:30,992 --> 01:26:33,326 WOMAN: You could be in a medical drama with all that... 2010 01:26:34,595 --> 01:26:36,597 ♪ ♪ 2011 01:26:44,706 --> 01:26:46,607 -(static crackles) -(indistinct chatter) 2012 01:26:49,610 --> 01:26:51,746 WOMAN: ...some pressure. 2013 01:26:53,313 --> 01:26:54,749 Just relax. 2014 01:26:57,451 --> 01:26:59,821 -(baby crying) -(device beeping) 2015 01:27:02,623 --> 01:27:05,626 DANIEL: Hi, buddy. Ooh. 2016 01:27:05,660 --> 01:27:06,961 Hi, buddy. 2017 01:27:06,994 --> 01:27:09,362 ♪ ♪ 2018 01:27:31,652 --> 01:27:34,321 KEVIN: It's gonna be a whole new world 2019 01:27:34,354 --> 01:27:35,723 for you, Daniel. 2020 01:27:37,658 --> 01:27:40,762 And I think you're gonna be an amazing father. 2021 01:27:41,863 --> 01:27:44,899 JOANNE (chuckles): That's for sure. 2022 01:27:44,932 --> 01:27:47,068 -(Kevin crying) -Oh. 2023 01:27:47,101 --> 01:27:49,302 (crying continues) 2024 01:27:49,336 --> 01:27:51,572 KEVIN: You're gonna do a great job. 2025 01:27:52,206 --> 01:27:53,541 JOANNE: Kev, why are you crying? 2026 01:27:53,574 --> 01:27:55,076 KEVIN: I'm crying because... 2027 01:27:55,109 --> 01:27:57,545 I don't know. I just don't... 2028 01:27:57,578 --> 01:27:59,914 DANIEL: Dad, you're gonna make me cry, too. 2029 01:27:59,947 --> 01:28:01,549 Why are you crying? 2030 01:28:03,651 --> 01:28:05,853 KEVIN: I just know that you're gonna be an amazing dad. 2031 01:28:05,887 --> 01:28:07,655 DANIEL (crying): I'm only gonna be a great dad 2032 01:28:07,688 --> 01:28:09,957 'cause I had a great dad. 2033 01:28:09,991 --> 01:28:12,894 KEVIN: I'm getting emotional, that's all. 2034 01:28:12,927 --> 01:28:14,327 JOANNE: Aw. 2035 01:28:14,361 --> 01:28:15,462 (playful chatter over video) 2036 01:28:15,495 --> 01:28:17,064 (over video): Boy, oh, boy! 2037 01:28:17,098 --> 01:28:18,633 My goodness! 2038 01:28:19,267 --> 01:28:21,035 Look at those little cheekies. 2039 01:28:21,068 --> 01:28:25,573 Look at those little cheekies. Look at those little cheekies. 2040 01:28:25,606 --> 01:28:26,741 Yeah. 2041 01:28:26,774 --> 01:28:29,376 DANIEL: I know how to end this movie. 2042 01:28:30,011 --> 01:28:31,712 Babies. 2043 01:28:32,379 --> 01:28:35,883 -The end of the movie is about babies. -(chatter over videos) 2044 01:28:35,917 --> 01:28:37,618 They're life-affirming. 2045 01:28:37,652 --> 01:28:39,486 They're exhausting. 2046 01:28:39,520 --> 01:28:41,421 -(baby laughing) -They're hilarious. 2047 01:28:41,454 --> 01:28:42,957 And they're worth it. 2048 01:28:42,990 --> 01:28:46,828 This film isn't about the inner workings of a technology. 2049 01:28:46,861 --> 01:28:48,696 It's not about the billionaire CEOs. 2050 01:28:48,729 --> 01:28:50,665 It's not about the geopolitics. 2051 01:28:50,698 --> 01:28:53,935 It's not about the terrifying future or the end of the world, 2052 01:28:53,968 --> 01:28:56,137 because my world is just starting. 2053 01:28:56,170 --> 01:28:57,972 I'm building a crib. 2054 01:28:58,005 --> 01:28:59,907 Right here, right now. 2055 01:28:59,941 --> 01:29:01,008 (baby cooing) 2056 01:29:01,042 --> 01:29:02,743 AI is gonna change everything 2057 01:29:02,777 --> 01:29:05,913 in ways too powerful and complex for us to understand. 2058 01:29:05,947 --> 01:29:09,717 And the future is not for any of us to decide. 2059 01:29:10,818 --> 01:29:13,921 But what I can decide is to be the best possible husband 2060 01:29:13,955 --> 01:29:17,992 for my wife and the best possible dad for my son. 2061 01:29:18,025 --> 01:29:21,796 So whether our AI future is a nightmarish dystopia 2062 01:29:21,829 --> 01:29:24,098 or the utopia that we all dream of, 2063 01:29:24,131 --> 01:29:27,134 I'll at least know that I did everything I could 2064 01:29:27,168 --> 01:29:30,605 to guide my family through this AI revolution. 2065 01:29:30,638 --> 01:29:34,474 And no matter what, we'll be facing it together. 2066 01:29:34,508 --> 01:29:35,877 (uplifting music swells) 2067 01:29:35,910 --> 01:29:37,444 (music stops abruptly) 2068 01:29:37,477 --> 01:29:40,047 DANIEL: So that's just our first idea. 2069 01:29:40,715 --> 01:29:43,084 How does this feel? Are you feeling this? 2070 01:29:43,117 --> 01:29:45,720 Wait, I-- like, this is not-- this is a joke. 2071 01:29:45,753 --> 01:29:48,388 It's not actually how you're gonna end it. 2072 01:29:50,591 --> 01:29:53,160 I mean, it's just an idea. Okay? 2073 01:29:53,194 --> 01:29:54,996 No, Daniel. 2074 01:29:55,029 --> 01:29:56,631 ...uh, very, very dumb. 2075 01:29:56,664 --> 01:29:59,166 You've just spent, I don't know, like, how many years 2076 01:29:59,200 --> 01:30:03,104 of our life working on this, talking to every leading expert 2077 01:30:03,137 --> 01:30:05,539 on the planet about the subject, 2078 01:30:05,573 --> 01:30:08,175 and you're gonna end it 2079 01:30:08,209 --> 01:30:11,444 with some, like, kumbaya bullshit? 2080 01:30:11,478 --> 01:30:14,048 There's an asteroid headed to Earth. 2081 01:30:14,081 --> 01:30:15,917 What do you do? Just... 2082 01:30:15,950 --> 01:30:18,152 hold hands and hope it works out okay? 2083 01:30:18,185 --> 01:30:19,854 Absolutely not. 2084 01:30:19,887 --> 01:30:22,924 We have to-- it ha-- it has to be... 2085 01:30:22,957 --> 01:30:25,026 The ending has to... 2086 01:30:26,493 --> 01:30:28,529 CAROLINE: Okay, first thing: 2087 01:30:28,562 --> 01:30:32,033 AI is here, and it's here to stay. 2088 01:30:32,066 --> 01:30:33,534 The shit's out of the horse, 2089 01:30:33,567 --> 01:30:36,436 but the horse is gonna keep shitting. 2090 01:30:38,873 --> 01:30:39,807 (crowd cheering) 2091 01:30:39,840 --> 01:30:41,943 You know, one of the basic laws of history 2092 01:30:41,976 --> 01:30:44,578 is that nothing really have a beginning 2093 01:30:44,612 --> 01:30:46,580 and nothing has any ending. 2094 01:30:46,614 --> 01:30:48,049 It just goes on. 2095 01:30:48,082 --> 01:30:50,918 AI is nowhere near its full development. 2096 01:30:50,952 --> 01:30:53,087 CAROLINE: Even if the current AI bubble bursts, 2097 01:30:53,120 --> 01:30:54,956 -humans are never going to stop -(noisemaker blows) 2098 01:30:54,989 --> 01:30:57,959 building more and more powerful technology. 2099 01:30:57,992 --> 01:30:59,827 HAO: You can choose not to use AI 2100 01:30:59,860 --> 01:31:02,730 or participate in it, but it's going to affect you anyway. 2101 01:31:02,763 --> 01:31:04,231 DANIEL: Okay, fantastic. So we're screwed. 2102 01:31:04,265 --> 01:31:07,568 CAROLINE: No, we're not because of one simple thing. 2103 01:31:11,572 --> 01:31:13,574 This is not inevitable. 2104 01:31:13,607 --> 01:31:15,576 If we could just see it clearly together, 2105 01:31:15,609 --> 01:31:18,813 the obvious response will be to choose something different. 2106 01:31:18,846 --> 01:31:21,615 We need to very clearly change the game 2107 01:31:21,649 --> 01:31:23,517 from a race to the bottom into a race to the top. 2108 01:31:23,551 --> 01:31:27,855 LEAHY: The problem we need to solve is not AI specifically. 2109 01:31:27,888 --> 01:31:31,726 It's the general question of how do we build a society 2110 01:31:31,759 --> 01:31:34,528 that can deal with powerful technology. 2111 01:31:34,562 --> 01:31:35,830 Because we're going to get 2112 01:31:35,863 --> 01:31:37,264 only more and more powerful technology. 2113 01:31:37,298 --> 01:31:40,034 CAROLINE: We need to upgrade our society, 2114 01:31:40,067 --> 01:31:41,902 and the first step is coming together 2115 01:31:41,936 --> 01:31:43,838 -and demanding... -ALL: Coordination. 2116 01:31:43,871 --> 01:31:47,608 Some form of international cooperation or agreement about 2117 01:31:47,641 --> 01:31:48,909 what the norms should be. 2118 01:31:48,943 --> 01:31:50,544 You know, how should they be deployed... 2119 01:31:50,578 --> 01:31:52,146 Like, real international diplomacy 2120 01:31:52,179 --> 01:31:53,781 among the superpowers. 2121 01:31:53,814 --> 01:31:56,784 The Chinese are as worried about it as the Americans. 2122 01:31:56,817 --> 01:31:58,085 I think it's difficult, you know, 2123 01:31:58,119 --> 01:31:59,920 in the current geopolitical climate, 2124 01:31:59,954 --> 01:32:01,756 -but I think it's necessary. -RASKIN: Absolutely. 2125 01:32:01,789 --> 01:32:05,059 In the exact same way that the last time that humanity 2126 01:32:05,092 --> 01:32:09,163 developed a technology this dangerous... 2127 01:32:09,830 --> 01:32:12,900 ...that required a complete, unprecedented shift 2128 01:32:12,933 --> 01:32:15,169 to the structure of our world. 2129 01:32:15,770 --> 01:32:18,172 CAROLINE: So we need to do that complete, 2130 01:32:18,205 --> 01:32:20,307 unprecedented shift again. 2131 01:32:21,008 --> 01:32:24,678 You know, we-we talk to people who work at these AI companies, 2132 01:32:24,712 --> 01:32:25,846 and they say they want to do something different, 2133 01:32:25,880 --> 01:32:27,048 but they need public pressure. 2134 01:32:27,081 --> 01:32:28,716 They need the government to do something. 2135 01:32:28,749 --> 01:32:30,217 So then we go to DC, and they say, 2136 01:32:30,251 --> 01:32:32,153 "Well, we need Silicon Valley to do something different. 2137 01:32:32,186 --> 01:32:34,021 They're the ones who are gonna come up with the guardrails." 2138 01:32:34,055 --> 01:32:36,057 And so everyone is pointing the finger at someone else, 2139 01:32:36,090 --> 01:32:39,927 and what they agree on is that we need public pressure 2140 01:32:39,960 --> 01:32:41,796 in order for something else to happen. 2141 01:32:41,829 --> 01:32:43,164 And that's what you 2142 01:32:43,197 --> 01:32:44,799 and all the people watching this movie can do. 2143 01:32:44,832 --> 01:32:45,833 CAROLINE: We need to hold the leaders 2144 01:32:45,866 --> 01:32:47,334 in our governments 2145 01:32:47,368 --> 01:32:48,969 and the leaders of these companies accountable. 2146 01:32:49,003 --> 01:32:51,639 BOEREE: Whichever country you're in, 2147 01:32:51,672 --> 01:32:53,340 let them know that you're not happy 2148 01:32:53,374 --> 01:32:54,975 with the current status quo. 2149 01:32:55,009 --> 01:32:57,678 So, yeah, it's boring to say call your congressperson. 2150 01:32:57,711 --> 01:32:59,880 I'm not saying you should just do that, but, like, 2151 01:32:59,914 --> 01:33:01,215 we do have to do that. 2152 01:33:01,248 --> 01:33:02,883 Like, we do have to get the government involved. 2153 01:33:02,917 --> 01:33:04,185 DANIEL: So we just call them up and say, 2154 01:33:04,218 --> 01:33:06,253 "Hey, stop Big Tech from ruining the world"? 2155 01:33:06,287 --> 01:33:09,223 CAROLINE: No, but there are tons of really obvious, 2156 01:33:09,256 --> 01:33:11,225 straightforward things we can be demanding. 2157 01:33:11,258 --> 01:33:12,960 We need transparency. 2158 01:33:12,993 --> 01:33:14,795 We need to end the secrecy that exists inside these labs, 2159 01:33:14,829 --> 01:33:17,031 because they are building powerful technology, 2160 01:33:17,064 --> 01:33:19,066 and the public deserves to know what's going on. 2161 01:33:19,100 --> 01:33:21,068 Ultimately, we're gonna need independent, 2162 01:33:21,102 --> 01:33:23,637 objective third parties to evaluate the systems. 2163 01:33:23,671 --> 01:33:27,274 We can't count on the companies to grade their own homework. 2164 01:33:27,308 --> 01:33:31,378 If-if a company uses AI and-and has AI interacting with you, 2165 01:33:31,412 --> 01:33:35,249 it should disclose that you are interacting with an AI system. 2166 01:33:35,282 --> 01:33:39,019 Yeah. And-and also we need a system that makes companies 2167 01:33:39,053 --> 01:33:42,156 legally liable for the AI systems that they produce. 2168 01:33:42,189 --> 01:33:46,293 We need to make sure that there are tests and safety standards 2169 01:33:46,327 --> 01:33:48,662 that are applied to everyone. 2170 01:33:48,696 --> 01:33:50,097 We need some ground rules, 2171 01:33:50,131 --> 01:33:51,999 and we need to keep adapting those rules 2172 01:33:52,032 --> 01:33:55,002 at the speed that the technology develops. 2173 01:33:55,035 --> 01:33:57,738 LEAHY: There is currently more regulation 2174 01:33:57,771 --> 01:33:59,840 on selling a sandwich to the public 2175 01:33:59,874 --> 01:34:03,410 than there is on building potentially world-ending AGI. 2176 01:34:03,444 --> 01:34:05,279 CAROLINE: And the last thing is 2177 01:34:05,312 --> 01:34:07,214 to upgrade ourselves. 2178 01:34:07,915 --> 01:34:10,284 This is not, like, the job of, like, the safety team 2179 01:34:10,317 --> 01:34:12,153 at any given lab, or the CEO. 2180 01:34:12,186 --> 01:34:13,854 So, like, this is everyone's job. 2181 01:34:13,888 --> 01:34:15,156 Don't, like, leave it up to the AI experts. 2182 01:34:15,189 --> 01:34:17,424 Like, (bleep) that. Like, this is the moment 2183 01:34:17,458 --> 01:34:19,460 that we are transitioning from, like, 2184 01:34:19,493 --> 01:34:22,163 mostly human cognitive power to, like, AI cognitive power, 2185 01:34:22,196 --> 01:34:23,197 and it affects everyone, 2186 01:34:23,230 --> 01:34:25,166 and I want people to be in on that conversation. 2187 01:34:25,199 --> 01:34:27,234 And I would say, if you think that AI will kill us all, 2188 01:34:27,268 --> 01:34:28,969 you should be working in AI research 2189 01:34:29,003 --> 01:34:30,804 to make sure it doesn't, because you do have 2190 01:34:30,838 --> 01:34:32,773 an enormous amount of agency. 2191 01:34:32,806 --> 01:34:34,208 CAROLINE: Whoever you are, 2192 01:34:34,241 --> 01:34:36,177 you are an expert in your own industry, 2193 01:34:36,210 --> 01:34:39,413 in your own school, in your own family, 2194 01:34:39,446 --> 01:34:43,050 and it's up to you how AI is used in your life. 2195 01:34:43,083 --> 01:34:45,319 Whether you want to join your school board 2196 01:34:45,352 --> 01:34:48,389 or-or whether you want to ask your employer 2197 01:34:48,422 --> 01:34:49,924 how they're using AI technologies, 2198 01:34:49,957 --> 01:34:52,259 like, all of us can do the work. 2199 01:34:52,293 --> 01:34:56,330 A lot of unions have been pretty effective at, like, 2200 01:34:56,363 --> 01:34:59,333 determining how they want to interact with these systems. 2201 01:34:59,366 --> 01:35:02,303 -Nurses unions, teacher unions. -(indistinct chanting) 2202 01:35:02,937 --> 01:35:05,039 DANIELA AMODEI: I would love if parents everywhere 2203 01:35:05,072 --> 01:35:06,407 went to the AI companies and said, 2204 01:35:06,440 --> 01:35:08,342 "How can you be better on this?" Including us. 2205 01:35:08,375 --> 01:35:11,445 So, I founded Encode Justice when I was 15 years old. 2206 01:35:11,478 --> 01:35:15,082 We are the world's first and largest army of young people 2207 01:35:15,115 --> 01:35:18,452 fighting for human-centered artificial intelligence. 2208 01:35:18,485 --> 01:35:21,288 It doesn't matter who you are, even the smallest actions help, 2209 01:35:21,322 --> 01:35:24,291 and even conversation starting is really, really valuable. 2210 01:35:24,325 --> 01:35:26,293 DANIEL: So my job could be, like, 2211 01:35:26,327 --> 01:35:28,295 tell Bubby Lila about this at dinner? 2212 01:35:28,329 --> 01:35:30,364 CAROLINE: Honestly, yeah, that's part of it. 2213 01:35:30,397 --> 01:35:32,099 And we're gonna have to do 2214 01:35:32,132 --> 01:35:34,969 a lot of things that we haven't even thought of yet. 2215 01:35:35,002 --> 01:35:36,503 People are gonna look at anything that we've outlined 2216 01:35:36,538 --> 01:35:37,838 and say, "That's not enough." 2217 01:35:37,871 --> 01:35:39,473 What matters is that the forces 2218 01:35:39,507 --> 01:35:41,242 that are working towards solutions 2219 01:35:41,275 --> 01:35:44,979 start to exceed the forces that are working against solutions. 2220 01:35:45,012 --> 01:35:46,947 Making the world better has always been hard. 2221 01:35:46,981 --> 01:35:48,249 It has never been easy. 2222 01:35:48,282 --> 01:35:50,317 Like, there have been many shitty things 2223 01:35:50,351 --> 01:35:52,286 that have happened in history, and we've had-- 2224 01:35:52,319 --> 01:35:54,121 like, people have had to deal with that, 2225 01:35:54,154 --> 01:35:57,191 and then they've risen up and changed it. 2226 01:35:57,224 --> 01:36:00,894 There are an insane number of challenges ahead of us, 2227 01:36:00,928 --> 01:36:04,398 but if we can get past them, 2228 01:36:04,431 --> 01:36:08,536 we can unlock a future beyond our wildest imagination. 2229 01:36:08,570 --> 01:36:10,804 CAROLINE: We have to come together 2230 01:36:10,838 --> 01:36:14,875 and find the path between the promise and the peril. 2231 01:36:14,908 --> 01:36:17,177 We can't be pessimists or optimists. 2232 01:36:17,778 --> 01:36:20,180 We have to become something new. 2233 01:36:22,182 --> 01:36:25,185 A friend of mine calls me an apocaloptimist. 2234 01:36:25,219 --> 01:36:26,186 "Apocaloptimist"? 2235 01:36:26,220 --> 01:36:28,889 I think that might be my new favorite word. 2236 01:36:28,922 --> 01:36:30,291 -(laughs) -MAN: Might be the name of this movie. 2237 01:36:30,324 --> 01:36:31,892 -It might be the name of this movie. -(laughter) 2238 01:36:31,925 --> 01:36:34,862 -"Apocaloptimist." -"Apocaloptimist." 2239 01:36:34,895 --> 01:36:36,430 Yeah. 2240 01:36:36,463 --> 01:36:37,898 I don't believe in doom. 2241 01:36:37,931 --> 01:36:39,366 I believe in the spirit of life, 2242 01:36:39,400 --> 01:36:43,137 uh, and I believe in life is about the capacity to act. 2243 01:36:43,170 --> 01:36:44,905 -(crowd singing) -The capacity to relate, 2244 01:36:44,938 --> 01:36:47,141 the capacity to feel. 2245 01:36:49,376 --> 01:36:51,345 -(indistinct mission chatter) -(cheering) 2246 01:36:51,378 --> 01:36:54,315 We have to double down more and more 2247 01:36:54,348 --> 01:36:57,384 on those capacities that we have as humans 2248 01:36:57,418 --> 01:36:59,853 that robotic systems will never have. 2249 01:37:00,487 --> 01:37:04,559 It's time right now to make those decisions about 2250 01:37:04,592 --> 01:37:08,062 how to guide it and support it rather than dividing us. 2251 01:37:08,095 --> 01:37:10,898 DANIEL: It kind of sounds like raising a kid. 2252 01:37:10,931 --> 01:37:12,634 That's what's up. Yeah. 2253 01:37:12,667 --> 01:37:15,035 CAROLINE: AI may have more raw intelligence 2254 01:37:15,069 --> 01:37:17,471 -than our little human brains, -(baby laughing) 2255 01:37:17,504 --> 01:37:20,608 but we're so much more than just our intelligence. 2256 01:37:21,208 --> 01:37:25,379 Intelligence is-is the ability to solve problems. 2257 01:37:25,412 --> 01:37:29,116 Wisdom is the ability to know which problems to solve. 2258 01:37:31,519 --> 01:37:34,188 (indistinct crew chatter) 2259 01:37:34,221 --> 01:37:35,489 DANIEL: It can go on your fridge. 2260 01:37:35,523 --> 01:37:36,658 (laughing) 2261 01:37:36,691 --> 01:37:38,626 YUDKOWSKY: So, don't give up. 2262 01:37:38,660 --> 01:37:40,227 Humanity has done 2263 01:37:40,260 --> 01:37:43,030 more difficult things than this in its history. 2264 01:37:43,897 --> 01:37:46,967 It's just hard to convince people that they should. 2265 01:37:47,000 --> 01:37:49,336 ♪ ♪ 2266 01:37:52,072 --> 01:37:53,273 (audio crackles) 2267 01:37:55,309 --> 01:37:57,277 DANIEL: So, when I started making this movie, 2268 01:37:57,311 --> 01:37:59,012 I would say that I was, like, 2269 01:37:59,046 --> 01:38:01,348 broadly a cynical asshole about this whole thing. 2270 01:38:01,382 --> 01:38:03,450 Over the course of making the film, 2271 01:38:03,484 --> 01:38:05,152 I've come to understand that, like, 2272 01:38:05,185 --> 01:38:06,987 that's the only thing we can't be. 2273 01:38:07,756 --> 01:38:09,990 ...or anything else you'd like to discuss? 2274 01:38:10,023 --> 01:38:11,992 No. I think we covered a lot. 2275 01:38:12,025 --> 01:38:13,561 -Yeah. (chuckles) -MAN: Thank you so much. 2276 01:38:13,595 --> 01:38:15,295 Thanks. 2277 01:38:15,929 --> 01:38:17,498 DANIEL: This is a problem that's bigger 2278 01:38:17,532 --> 01:38:19,400 than any one person. 2279 01:38:19,433 --> 01:38:22,136 This will change the world in ways that we don't understand. 2280 01:38:22,169 --> 01:38:24,037 That is all true. 2281 01:38:24,071 --> 01:38:26,106 -(laughs): Okay. -(indistinct chatter) 2282 01:38:26,140 --> 01:38:28,208 DANIEL: But what we do have agency over 2283 01:38:28,242 --> 01:38:30,411 is what we do about it. 2284 01:38:30,444 --> 01:38:33,113 As frontier AI grows exponentially more capable... 2285 01:38:33,147 --> 01:38:34,682 DANIEL: And the reality 2286 01:38:34,716 --> 01:38:37,151 is that if we just decide it's hopeless, 2287 01:38:37,184 --> 01:38:39,420 then it is hopeless. 2288 01:38:39,453 --> 01:38:41,221 ...to put less stress on planet Earth... 2289 01:38:41,255 --> 01:38:43,257 DANIEL: But if you decide 2290 01:38:43,290 --> 01:38:46,293 that you want to try... 2291 01:38:47,194 --> 01:38:48,563 ...then you try. 2292 01:38:48,596 --> 01:38:50,931 And that's hard. 2293 01:38:51,733 --> 01:38:53,500 But you know what? 2294 01:38:53,535 --> 01:38:57,137 Big things seem impossible before they actually happen. 2295 01:38:58,673 --> 01:39:01,676 But when they finally do happen, 2296 01:39:01,709 --> 01:39:05,713 it's because millions of people took millions of actions 2297 01:39:05,747 --> 01:39:08,182 to make them happen. 2298 01:39:08,215 --> 01:39:10,752 And so... 2299 01:39:10,785 --> 01:39:13,220 we have to try. 2300 01:39:14,087 --> 01:39:15,523 (sighs heavily) 2301 01:39:21,663 --> 01:39:24,298 There's too much at stake. 2302 01:39:24,331 --> 01:39:26,366 ♪ ♪ 2303 01:39:33,040 --> 01:39:35,375 (film crackling) 2304 01:39:37,545 --> 01:39:41,749 Look at the incredible changes we've experienced and survived 2305 01:39:41,783 --> 01:39:43,317 from the Stone Age, 2306 01:39:43,350 --> 01:39:46,487 and yet even greater changes are still to come. 2307 01:39:46,521 --> 01:39:50,090 ("Lost It to Trying" by Son Lux playing) 2308 01:40:19,086 --> 01:40:21,288 ♪ ♪ 2309 01:40:48,181 --> 01:40:50,718 ♪ What will we do now? ♪ 2310 01:40:50,752 --> 01:40:53,755 ♪ We've lost it to trying ♪ 2311 01:40:53,788 --> 01:40:55,690 ♪ We've lost it ♪ 2312 01:40:55,723 --> 01:40:57,457 ♪ To trying ♪ 2313 01:41:00,193 --> 01:41:02,764 ♪ What will we do now? ♪ 2314 01:41:02,797 --> 01:41:05,733 ♪ We've lost it to trying ♪ 2315 01:41:05,767 --> 01:41:07,602 ♪ We've lost it ♪ 2316 01:41:07,635 --> 01:41:09,469 ♪ To trying ♪ 2317 01:41:12,205 --> 01:41:14,709 ♪ What can we say now? ♪ 2318 01:41:14,742 --> 01:41:17,745 ♪ Our mouths only lying ♪ 2319 01:41:17,779 --> 01:41:19,212 ♪ Our mouths ♪ 2320 01:41:19,246 --> 01:41:21,448 ♪ Only lying ♪ 2321 01:41:25,720 --> 01:41:28,255 ♪ What can we say now? ♪ 2322 01:41:28,288 --> 01:41:31,358 ♪ Our mouths only lying ♪ 2323 01:41:31,391 --> 01:41:32,760 ♪ Our mouths ♪ 2324 01:41:32,794 --> 01:41:34,762 ♪ Only lying ♪ 2325 01:41:34,796 --> 01:41:37,197 ♪ ♪ 2326 01:42:01,522 --> 01:42:04,291 ♪ Give in and get out ♪ 2327 01:42:04,324 --> 01:42:07,294 ♪ We rise in the dying ♪ 2328 01:42:07,327 --> 01:42:08,763 ♪ We rise ♪ 2329 01:42:08,796 --> 01:42:11,164 ♪ In the dying ♪ 2330 01:42:13,568 --> 01:42:16,336 ♪ Give in and get out ♪ 2331 01:42:16,370 --> 01:42:19,272 ♪ We rise in the dying ♪ 2332 01:42:19,306 --> 01:42:20,775 ♪ We rise ♪ 2333 01:42:20,808 --> 01:42:23,176 ♪ In the dying ♪ 2334 01:42:25,546 --> 01:42:28,248 ♪ Give in and get out ♪ 2335 01:42:28,281 --> 01:42:31,251 ♪ We rise in the dying ♪ 2336 01:42:31,284 --> 01:42:32,787 ♪ We rise ♪ 2337 01:42:32,820 --> 01:42:35,155 ♪ In the dying ♪ 2338 01:42:37,558 --> 01:42:40,293 ♪ Give in and get out ♪ 2339 01:42:40,327 --> 01:42:43,263 ♪ We rise in the dying ♪ 2340 01:42:43,296 --> 01:42:44,532 ♪ We ♪ 2341 01:42:44,565 --> 01:42:46,601 ♪ ♪ 2342 01:43:16,263 --> 01:43:18,465 ♪ ♪ 2343 01:43:23,336 --> 01:43:25,840 ♪ Oh, oh, oh, oh, oh ♪ 2344 01:43:25,873 --> 01:43:27,675 ♪ Oh, oh, oh, oh ♪ 2345 01:43:27,709 --> 01:43:28,943 ♪ Oh, oh ♪ 2346 01:43:28,976 --> 01:43:31,913 ♪ Oh, oh, oh, oh, oh, oh ♪ 2347 01:43:31,946 --> 01:43:33,648 ♪ Oh, oh, oh, oh ♪ 2348 01:43:33,681 --> 01:43:34,916 ♪ Oh, oh ♪ 2349 01:43:34,949 --> 01:43:37,552 ♪ Oh, oh, oh, oh, oh, oh ♪ 2350 01:43:37,585 --> 01:43:40,287 ♪ What will we do now? ♪ 2351 01:43:40,320 --> 01:43:43,290 ♪ We've lost it to trying ♪ 2352 01:43:43,323 --> 01:43:45,026 ♪ We've lost it ♪ 2353 01:43:45,059 --> 01:43:46,861 ♪ To trying ♪ 2354 01:43:46,894 --> 01:43:49,530 ♪ Oh, oh, oh, oh, oh, oh ♪ 2355 01:43:49,564 --> 01:43:52,332 ♪ What will we do now? ♪ 2356 01:43:52,365 --> 01:43:55,335 ♪ We've lost it to trying ♪ 2357 01:43:55,368 --> 01:43:57,038 ♪ We've lost it ♪ 2358 01:43:57,071 --> 01:43:58,940 ♪ To trying. ♪ 2359 01:43:58,973 --> 01:44:01,374 ♪ ♪ 2360 01:44:23,798 --> 01:44:24,865 (song ends) 182051

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