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Hello and welcome to Global Eye
from the BBC World Service,
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bringing you the very best
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of our global investigative
journalism and reportage.
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I'm Shawn Yuan, a reporter with
the BBC's Global China unit,
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and today I'm in the
Pacific Island nation of Palau.
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You may have never heard of it,
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or be able to point to it
on a map,
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but its critical location means
it's now the staging ground
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of a geopolitical flash point
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between China, Taiwan
and the US.
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Also on this week's
programme...
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Police! Police!
Stay where you are!
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..BBC Eye tells
the incredible story
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of the so-called
"Goddess of Wealth",
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the Chinese woman
behind the scam
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that led to Europe's biggest
Bitcoin seizure...
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00:01:01,880 --> 00:01:04,880
..and we'll hear how the Arctic
has become a new front
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in a strategic battle
between global superpowers,
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with tensions rising
as the region warms faster.
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The landscape here
is breathtaking.
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This cluster of more than
300 islands
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is home to fewer than
20,000 people,
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but every year, tourists from
across the world flock here
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for its world-class
diving sites -
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but its location puts you right
in the crosshairs.
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Palau has geographical
proximity to China,
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but at the same time
formally recognised Taiwan
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as a sovereign state.
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Experts have warned that China
is ready to retake Taiwan,
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which it sees as its own -
and, at the same time,
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Palau enjoys extensive aid
from the US
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in exchange for Washington's
unfettered
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and exclusive military access -
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and all of this means
that this nation
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has now become a front line
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for a battle for influence
among hostile superpowers.
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Palau sits on the so-called
Second Island Chain,
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a strategic line of islands
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stretching from Japan
to Indonesia.
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Control of Palau was critical
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in the US's fight against Japan
in World War II...
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..and today is part of
a line of defence
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that the US sees as essential
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to deter Chinese influence
in the Western Pacific -
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a fact that the
US Secretary of Defense
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emphasised on a trip to the
region earlier this year.
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Our goal is to achieve peace
through strength,
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by putting America first,
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but that means working with
partners and allies
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throughout the region,
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and in re-establishing
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deterrence-building
capabilities right here.
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A series of military outposts
on this chain
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could be rapidly mobilised
if a war breaks out with China.
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This is Malakal Harbor,
Palau's main port,
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where diving boats
and cargo ships dock.
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It is also a site which
Washington plans to upgrade
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to enable access for larger
military vessels,
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and is part of an escalation
of US military presence here.
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00:03:02,280 --> 00:03:04,880
On the northern and southern
tips of the archipelago,
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including where I'm standing
right now in Angaur State,
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you can see clear evidence
of a soon-to-be-completed
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American long-range
radar system.
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This could become crucial
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for monitoring China's military
activities
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in the western Pacific.
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Now China has taken notice.
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Washington claims that Beijing
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is trying to stealthily
keep a close eye
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on US military infrastructure
by leasing land here.
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While in Palau, we reviewed
official documents
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and found that
Chinese businessmen
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had leased swathes of land
close to a US airstrip
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and the planned
over-the-horizon
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long-range radar.
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China's Foreign Ministry
did not respond
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to requests for comment on
matters related to land leases.
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The land has not
been developed yet,
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but it is causing concern
in Washington.
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The US's strong military
presence isn't the only reason
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why China is
interested in Palau.
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Behind me is a building
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that makes this country even
more important for Beijing.
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This is the Taiwanese embassy.
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China does not have any formal
diplomatic presence here,
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because Palau recognised Taiwan
as a sovereign state.
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Isolating Taiwan is key
to Chinese foreign policy,
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and that's why Beijing has been
exerting its influence here
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in every way it can.
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Its trump card - tourism.
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Over the years,
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Beijing has banned state-run
tour packages from China,
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which was the biggest source
of visitors to Palau,
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in order to punish
the country's relations
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with Taiwan,
according to Palauan officials.
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It also reportedly offered
Palau millions of tourists
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in 2020 to pressure Palau
to sever ties with Taiwan.
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I caught up with
the President of Palau,
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Surangel Whipps Jr,
while I was here,
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and asked him about these
geopolitical tensions.
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We've had a relationship
with Taiwan,
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we continue to have a
relationship with Taiwan,
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and I think that should
be clear to China,
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and they shouldn't tell us
that we have to choose.
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If China wants to have
a relationship with Palau,
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by all means, you can -
but you cannot tell us
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that we cannot have
a relationship with Taiwan.
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Behind this geopolitical
power struggle
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are local Palauans
who have expressed frustrations
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of becoming pawns
in this tug-of-war.
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People have told me
that they're worried
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the US military expansion
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might be inviting unwanted wars
to the country,
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and others are worried
about mass tourism
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impacts on their environment.
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In the face of intensifying
global competition,
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Palau's future seems
to be once again
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in the hands of
the world's major powers.
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Now to the extraordinary story
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of a woman jailed for over
ten years for money laundering
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in one of the world's
largest ever seizures
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of cryptocurrency,
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which is now worth billions
of pounds.
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Qian Zhimin wanted
to use her vast wealth
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to become queen
of her own land -
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but following a seven-year
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international money laundering
investigation,
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her past finally
caught up with her.
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The Global China unit has more.
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Police! Police!
Stay where you are!
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Caught in bed -
the Chinese woman at the centre
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of the UK's biggest ever
cryptocurrency seizure.
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After several years on the run,
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police finally arrest
Qian Zhimin.
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The Chinese cryptoqueen pled
guilty to money laundering,
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and that's kicked off a
struggle
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over who gets to keep
the seized Bitcoin.
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So, how did she end up
in the UK,
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and are her investors ever
going to see their money again?
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CALL AND RESPONSE
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The story starts here in 2014,
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in Tianjin,
a city in northern China.
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Qian Zhimin set up an
investment firm
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called Lantian Gerui.
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The company promised
investors huge profits
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if they invested in their range
of technology projects.
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This early promotional video
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claims the company
used investors' money
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to mine or generate
new cryptocurrency.
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These were the bitcoin mines.
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An investor we're calling Mr Yu
says the company drip-fed him
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apparent earnings, just over
£10, every working day.
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That made everyone feel good.
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It even gave us the confidence
to borrow more to invest.
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Including these loans,
Mr Yu and his wife ended up
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investing around £100,000.
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I suppose we were just too weak
to resist.
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They pumped up our dreams,
until we lost all self-control,
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all critical judgment.
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Investors got paid extra for
each new person they signed up,
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helping the scheme to reach
every one of China's provinces,
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pulling in 128,000 people.
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The company's marketing
targeted the middle-aged
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and elderly, partly by
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trumpeting its love of China
as a nation.
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Our love of country was our
Achilles heel.
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That's what they exploited.
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They said they wanted to make
China number one in the world,
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to lift the Chinese people to
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their rightful place
in the world.
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Investors like Mr Yu saw Qian
as the genius behind
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the company's incredible
success.
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Here, a group of investors hold
up a flag
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declaring their love for her.
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One investor we spoke to said
that, in person, she was
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incredibly sharp and
persuasive.
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The company held events in
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glitzy banquet halls
and hotel ballrooms.
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But Qian was famously
secretive.
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She wore masks at large events,
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and used frontpeople
to make sure
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her name wasn't on any of the
company's paperwork.
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In mid-2017, the Chinese police
launched an investigation
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into Lantian Gerui,
and the pay-outs stopped.
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Investors were left
high and dry.
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Several hundred
million pounds' worth
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of investments disappeared,
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and Qia was
nowhere to be seen.
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So, where did she go?
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We now know this is
where she ended up -
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one of London's most exclusive
neighbourhoods, Hampstead.
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She had arrived
on her fake passport
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under the alias Yadi Zhang.
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One of the first things
she did,
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posing as an antiques and
diamond dealer who'd made her
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fortune in East Asia,
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was to rent this property for
about £17,000 a month.
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In her guise as an
international businesswoman,
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she recruited a former takeaway
worker, Wen Jian,
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as her personal assistant.
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Messages Qian Zhimin
sent to Wen
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whilst they were looking for
a cleaner
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showed Qian was
obsessed with security.
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00:10:04,560 --> 00:10:06,920
The new assistant
Wen's search history
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reveals a dawning awareness
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that her boss is not who she
says she is.
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Before fleeing China,
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00:10:21,280 --> 00:10:23,880
Qian bought bitcoin using
investors' money,
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which she took for herself
when she fled.
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Using bitcoin to fund a lavish
lifestyle proved difficult,
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as she found out when she tried
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00:10:34,160 --> 00:10:37,680
to buy this home
worth £11.5 million.
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00:10:37,680 --> 00:10:40,000
So, we're here now in the
North London neighbourhood
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00:10:40,000 --> 00:10:41,600
of Totteridge Common.
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00:10:41,600 --> 00:10:45,120
This is the house - it's very
grand, but also very discreet.
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00:10:45,120 --> 00:10:48,040
It's ringed with thick hedges
and trees.
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00:10:48,040 --> 00:10:50,840
Now, when she tried to pay for
the property with bitcoin,
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her lawyers asked what the
source of the bitcoin was,
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00:10:53,760 --> 00:10:56,120
to which she was unable to give
a convincing answer,
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00:10:56,120 --> 00:10:58,320
and that raised their
suspicions.
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UK legislation aimed at
tackling money laundering
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00:11:03,680 --> 00:11:05,120
led Qian's solicitors to
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00:11:05,120 --> 00:11:07,360
identify a potential
compliance issue
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00:11:07,360 --> 00:11:09,120
with her bitcoin wealth.
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00:11:09,120 --> 00:11:10,400
One said that her boss had
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00:11:10,400 --> 00:11:12,280
started mining the
cryptocurrency
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00:11:12,280 --> 00:11:14,600
and amassing coins
just for fun.
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00:11:14,600 --> 00:11:17,520
But a check of the blockchain,
the public ledger,
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proved that the story didn't
add up.
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00:11:21,400 --> 00:11:23,640
Solicitors alerted the police,
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00:11:23,640 --> 00:11:26,640
and in late 2018 they raided
the Hampstead mansion.
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00:11:28,120 --> 00:11:31,040
Mr Qian was in
a bedroom at the back,
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00:11:31,040 --> 00:11:33,880
and in a different room
to Miss Wen.
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Very large house, fairly messy,
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00:11:36,880 --> 00:11:40,760
and there was cash almost
everywhere.
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00:11:40,760 --> 00:11:44,360
Thousands of pounds -
bundles of £20,000 here,
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00:11:44,360 --> 00:11:47,800
£12,000 there,
envelopes with money in.
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00:11:47,800 --> 00:11:51,320
There was even a coat
hanging up in a cupboard
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00:11:51,320 --> 00:11:54,240
that had £3,000 in the pocket.
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00:11:54,240 --> 00:11:56,720
Hello, madam. I appreciate
you're in bed.
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00:11:56,720 --> 00:11:58,560
I've just got a record down
your name,
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if that is all right.
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00:11:59,640 --> 00:12:02,760
So, what's your first name,
please?
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00:12:02,760 --> 00:12:04,400
Yadi Zhang.
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00:12:05,400 --> 00:12:08,240
I know this is wrong,
but my impression of her
246
00:12:08,240 --> 00:12:11,240
was that she wasn't especially
bright.
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00:12:11,240 --> 00:12:14,680
Years later,
knowing a lot more about her,
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00:12:14,680 --> 00:12:17,600
that was an act, and she's very
good at acting.
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00:12:17,600 --> 00:12:20,480
See, she needs lots of
assistance. Yeah.
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00:12:20,480 --> 00:12:24,400
DC Ryan's team also found a
document in which Qian set out
251
00:12:24,400 --> 00:12:25,960
her dreams and ambitions,
252
00:12:25,960 --> 00:12:28,160
all carefully itemised and
costed,
253
00:12:28,160 --> 00:12:31,600
some of them running into
the millions of pounds.
254
00:12:31,600 --> 00:12:34,200
These ranged from things like
buying jewellery
255
00:12:34,200 --> 00:12:36,360
and entering into UK
high society...
256
00:12:36,360 --> 00:12:38,320
Oh, here, for "Kingdom Design."
257
00:12:38,320 --> 00:12:41,440
Well, I suppose that must be
the kingdom of Liberland.
258
00:12:41,440 --> 00:12:43,880
..to becoming Queen of
Liberland,
259
00:12:43,880 --> 00:12:47,200
an unrecognised micronation on
the Croatian-Serbian border.
260
00:12:49,960 --> 00:12:52,560
Ultimately,
the pair weren't arrested.
261
00:12:52,560 --> 00:12:56,160
But Qian, seemingly spooked,
disappeared again.
262
00:12:56,160 --> 00:13:00,360
She still needed to convert her
bitcoin stash back into money.
263
00:13:00,360 --> 00:13:02,680
And from afar, Qian continued
264
00:13:02,680 --> 00:13:05,640
to supervise her assistant
Wen Jian.
265
00:13:05,640 --> 00:13:09,560
In desperation, Wen turned to a
now defunct online forum
266
00:13:09,560 --> 00:13:12,200
and found a stranger,
calling himself Ricky,
267
00:13:12,200 --> 00:13:15,080
who was willing to exchange
crypto for cash.
268
00:13:18,160 --> 00:13:20,640
On one occasion, she met him
outside a pub
269
00:13:20,640 --> 00:13:23,080
to pick up 20 grand for
two bitcoin.
270
00:13:40,320 --> 00:13:42,840
During a later search in 2021,
271
00:13:42,840 --> 00:13:46,920
DC Ryan's team found this
ominous note written by Wen.
272
00:13:46,920 --> 00:13:50,560
Sadly for her, officers had
already uncovered another note
273
00:13:50,560 --> 00:13:53,880
containing passcodes for
Qian's bitcoin accounts.
274
00:13:55,200 --> 00:13:58,080
In reality, it was very basic.
275
00:13:58,080 --> 00:14:03,640
The impression that I get
is that Ms Wen and Ms Qian
276
00:14:03,640 --> 00:14:09,480
didn't mix in criminal
circles in the UK,
277
00:14:09,480 --> 00:14:12,600
so they didn't really know
the best way of laundering,
278
00:14:12,600 --> 00:14:15,720
and they were trying to do
the best that they could,
279
00:14:15,720 --> 00:14:18,320
which wasn't particularly good.
280
00:14:19,720 --> 00:14:22,920
It's also in 2021 that the
Metropolitan Police
281
00:14:22,920 --> 00:14:25,840
discover the
true scale of Qian's wealth.
282
00:14:27,680 --> 00:14:30,600
They finally unlock all the
cryptocurrency wallets found on
283
00:14:30,600 --> 00:14:34,600
laptops and hard drives they
had seized three years earlier.
284
00:14:34,600 --> 00:14:38,240
In total, they seized
61,000 bitcoin -
285
00:14:38,240 --> 00:14:41,120
at the time, worth
nearly £2 billion.
286
00:14:44,160 --> 00:14:45,480
Police officers.
287
00:14:45,480 --> 00:14:47,400
SHOUTING
288
00:14:47,400 --> 00:14:49,040
Wait, wherever you are!
289
00:14:49,040 --> 00:14:53,160
Qian was finally
arrested in 2024, in York,
290
00:14:53,160 --> 00:14:54,960
after she was spotted on
CCTV
291
00:14:54,960 --> 00:14:56,720
walking into a rented home.
292
00:14:59,440 --> 00:15:00,520
Police!
293
00:15:02,000 --> 00:15:03,920
I was surprised that
she was in the UK.
294
00:15:03,920 --> 00:15:05,360
I thought she would have left.
295
00:15:05,360 --> 00:15:09,000
Her passport indicates
that she did leave,
296
00:15:09,000 --> 00:15:12,280
but we don't know how
she got back into the UK.
297
00:15:12,280 --> 00:15:14,160
She was very meek.
298
00:15:14,160 --> 00:15:15,680
I went to get
her from the cell,
299
00:15:15,680 --> 00:15:17,640
to bring her
into the interview room,
300
00:15:17,640 --> 00:15:20,640
and she was walking
very hunched over,
301
00:15:20,640 --> 00:15:23,760
walking very slowly,
very small steps.
302
00:15:23,760 --> 00:15:26,120
Now, bear in mind, I'd seen her
on CCTV
303
00:15:26,120 --> 00:15:27,840
a couple of weeks earlier,
304
00:15:27,840 --> 00:15:30,000
so I knew she could walk
normally,
305
00:15:30,000 --> 00:15:32,920
so this was all part of the act
that she's trying to portray,
306
00:15:32,920 --> 00:15:35,560
that she's infirm,
307
00:15:35,560 --> 00:15:38,920
trying to encourage people
to feel sorry for her.
308
00:15:42,160 --> 00:15:45,680
After her arrest,
Qian denied everything.
309
00:15:45,680 --> 00:15:48,400
Qian argued she left China
because of a crackdown
310
00:15:48,400 --> 00:15:51,800
against crypto
entrepreneurs in 2017.
311
00:15:51,800 --> 00:15:55,200
But finally, at trial,
she dramatically pleaded guilty
312
00:15:55,200 --> 00:15:57,600
to charges of money laundering.
313
00:15:57,600 --> 00:16:00,040
So, what now for the
cryptoqueen's investors?
314
00:16:00,040 --> 00:16:03,040
And what will happen to
the 61,000 bitcoins
315
00:16:03,040 --> 00:16:04,880
seized by
the Metropolitan Police?
316
00:16:10,240 --> 00:16:12,000
The Crown Prosecution Service
317
00:16:12,000 --> 00:16:14,760
launched a civil proceeds of
crime case in September
318
00:16:14,760 --> 00:16:16,840
last year,
which will try and identify
319
00:16:16,840 --> 00:16:19,240
the rightful owners
of the seized money.
320
00:16:20,560 --> 00:16:22,080
The difficulty with this case
321
00:16:22,080 --> 00:16:24,040
is that it's very hard for the
victims
322
00:16:24,040 --> 00:16:26,840
to prove their claim
to the money.
323
00:16:26,840 --> 00:16:28,880
Lawyers representing
victims have told us
324
00:16:28,880 --> 00:16:31,920
that only a tiny fraction
of the total number of victims
325
00:16:31,920 --> 00:16:33,600
have actually stepped forward.
326
00:16:33,600 --> 00:16:36,320
And so, last month, the CPS
revealed that it was thinking
327
00:16:36,320 --> 00:16:37,680
about setting up an
328
00:16:37,680 --> 00:16:40,680
unprecedented compensation
mechanism.
329
00:16:40,680 --> 00:16:42,800
But it's unclear if
victims would get back
330
00:16:42,800 --> 00:16:44,800
the initial value of
what they put in,
331
00:16:44,800 --> 00:16:48,400
or if they could also claim
the massive rise in the value
332
00:16:48,400 --> 00:16:51,000
of that investment,
given the price of Bitcoin
333
00:16:51,000 --> 00:16:54,120
has grown around
20 times since 2017.
334
00:16:56,200 --> 00:16:59,160
But the UK Treasury could
also stand to benefit.
335
00:16:59,160 --> 00:17:02,200
Thanks to the incredible rise
in the value of bitcoin,
336
00:17:02,200 --> 00:17:07,720
that haul of 61,000 bitcoin is
now worth more than £5 billion.
337
00:17:07,720 --> 00:17:10,600
That's three times what the
Government would have saved
338
00:17:10,600 --> 00:17:12,760
through its proposed
winter fuel allowance reforms.
339
00:17:21,440 --> 00:17:25,160
Back in China, Mr Yu says
his failed investments
340
00:17:25,160 --> 00:17:27,800
led to his marriage
breaking up.
341
00:17:27,800 --> 00:17:30,200
I owed a lot of money.
342
00:17:30,200 --> 00:17:33,400
I was afraid it would
ruin my son's future,
343
00:17:33,400 --> 00:17:35,800
so I gave up custody of him
344
00:17:35,800 --> 00:17:38,800
and took on
all the debt myself.
345
00:17:38,800 --> 00:17:41,800
Sometimes I had no
money to buy food.
346
00:17:41,800 --> 00:17:45,080
I remember I bought a
box of instant noodles
347
00:17:45,080 --> 00:17:47,720
and lived on that for 15 days.
348
00:17:49,320 --> 00:17:51,120
CALL AND RESPONSE
349
00:17:52,800 --> 00:17:55,640
In 2022, some of Qian's
investors called on
350
00:17:55,640 --> 00:17:58,120
the Chinese government
to make good their losses.
351
00:17:59,520 --> 00:18:03,040
They're now calling on
the UK Government.
352
00:18:03,040 --> 00:18:05,000
We all read Sherlock Holmes,
353
00:18:05,000 --> 00:18:08,960
and that's still the image
of the ultimate detective.
354
00:18:08,960 --> 00:18:11,080
To find all this bitcoin,
355
00:18:11,080 --> 00:18:12,920
we are very grateful.
356
00:18:12,920 --> 00:18:15,400
We hope we get our money back.
357
00:18:15,400 --> 00:18:19,920
That's our great hope. To save
the victims who are struggling
358
00:18:19,920 --> 00:18:22,720
and suffering
would be a noble act.
359
00:18:25,040 --> 00:18:26,360
So, is it possible that there's
360
00:18:26,360 --> 00:18:28,560
any of this bitcoin that's
still kind of out there and
361
00:18:28,560 --> 00:18:31,480
that hasn't been identified and
seized yet? Yes.
362
00:18:32,600 --> 00:18:36,840
We've got a wallet
with 20,008 bitcoins
363
00:18:36,840 --> 00:18:43,080
that in Ms Qian's
notebook says "lost",
364
00:18:43,080 --> 00:18:50,280
and those 20,008 bitcoins
haven't moved since 2017.
365
00:18:50,280 --> 00:18:52,400
And what would that
be worth nowadays?
366
00:18:53,840 --> 00:18:57,800
Well, we'll go for a
billion-and-a-half.
367
00:18:57,800 --> 00:18:59,560
Something like that.
368
00:18:59,560 --> 00:19:02,400
Billion-and-a-half lost,
just in the wind? Yeah.
369
00:19:05,520 --> 00:19:08,040
Here's another piece of content
the World Service has produced
370
00:19:08,040 --> 00:19:09,520
in the last few days.
371
00:19:09,520 --> 00:19:11,520
On this programme
a few weeks ago,
372
00:19:11,520 --> 00:19:13,520
we showed a
BBC Eye Investigation
373
00:19:13,520 --> 00:19:16,400
about last year's mass
protest in Bangladesh,
374
00:19:16,400 --> 00:19:18,080
where hundreds of
people were killed.
375
00:19:18,080 --> 00:19:20,240
EXPLOSIONS
376
00:19:20,240 --> 00:19:21,760
Leaked audio suggested that
377
00:19:21,760 --> 00:19:23,720
former Prime Minister
Sheikh Hasina
378
00:19:23,720 --> 00:19:25,520
authorised the crackdown.
379
00:19:25,520 --> 00:19:27,840
Now, Hasina has been found
guilty of
380
00:19:27,840 --> 00:19:29,520
crimes against humanity
381
00:19:29,520 --> 00:19:31,920
and sentenced to death
in absentia.
382
00:19:33,520 --> 00:19:35,680
To hear more about
this monumental case
383
00:19:35,680 --> 00:19:38,760
and what this might mean
for the future of Bangladesh,
384
00:19:38,760 --> 00:19:41,000
you can find the
full story, among others,
385
00:19:41,000 --> 00:19:43,800
on the Global News Podcast
on BBC Sounds,
386
00:19:43,800 --> 00:19:45,840
or wherever you get your
podcasts.
387
00:19:47,600 --> 00:19:50,280
It's not just the Pacific
region that's a battleground
388
00:19:50,280 --> 00:19:52,080
for superpower rivalry.
389
00:19:52,080 --> 00:19:53,720
Global powers have turned
390
00:19:53,720 --> 00:19:55,800
their focus north to the
Arctic.
391
00:19:55,800 --> 00:19:57,320
Russia and NATO have increased
392
00:19:57,320 --> 00:19:59,320
their military presence
in the region,
393
00:19:59,320 --> 00:20:01,880
China is expanding its
influence,
394
00:20:01,880 --> 00:20:04,000
and countries are vying
for the resources
395
00:20:04,000 --> 00:20:06,400
the melting ice might reveal.
396
00:20:06,400 --> 00:20:09,680
The World Service's global
journalism team explains now
397
00:20:09,680 --> 00:20:13,000
why the Arctic has become one
of the world's most
398
00:20:13,000 --> 00:20:14,880
hotly contested regions.
399
00:20:14,880 --> 00:20:16,600
Here's Natasha Peach's report.
400
00:20:23,920 --> 00:20:27,600
What happens in the Arctic
does not stay in the Arctic.
401
00:20:30,080 --> 00:20:32,880
There are things happening
in the Arctic now
402
00:20:32,880 --> 00:20:35,600
that would have been
unthinkable 20 years ago.
403
00:20:38,360 --> 00:20:40,920
This is the
region warming faster
404
00:20:40,920 --> 00:20:43,160
than anywhere else on Earth.
405
00:20:43,160 --> 00:20:44,920
And as the climate changes,
406
00:20:44,920 --> 00:20:47,440
so does its strategic
importance.
407
00:20:48,960 --> 00:20:51,840
We need Greenland
for national security,
408
00:20:51,840 --> 00:20:53,800
and even international
security.
409
00:20:55,080 --> 00:20:58,800
Major powers
are turning their eyes north,
410
00:20:58,800 --> 00:21:01,880
looking for resources,
new routes through the ice,
411
00:21:01,880 --> 00:21:05,360
and a way to strengthen their
position on the global stage.
412
00:21:05,360 --> 00:21:08,760
A lot of countries have come
out with Arctic strategies.
413
00:21:08,760 --> 00:21:09,880
It's part of how the
414
00:21:09,880 --> 00:21:12,440
international order is being
challenged.
415
00:21:13,960 --> 00:21:15,480
To understand this, we need to
416
00:21:15,480 --> 00:21:17,360
look at the world in a
different way.
417
00:21:19,160 --> 00:21:20,960
Far from just a frozen ocean,
418
00:21:20,960 --> 00:21:22,720
eight countries have territory
419
00:21:22,720 --> 00:21:24,040
in the Arctic Circle -
420
00:21:24,040 --> 00:21:26,240
the United States, Canada,
421
00:21:26,240 --> 00:21:27,320
Greenland - which is a
422
00:21:27,320 --> 00:21:29,120
semi-autonomous part of
Denmark -
423
00:21:29,120 --> 00:21:31,880
Iceland, Norway, Sweden,
424
00:21:31,880 --> 00:21:34,000
Finland and Russia.
425
00:21:35,240 --> 00:21:36,320
During the Cold War
426
00:21:36,320 --> 00:21:38,200
between the US and
Soviet Union,
427
00:21:38,200 --> 00:21:39,480
going over the pole was a
428
00:21:39,480 --> 00:21:41,520
potential route
for missile strikes.
429
00:21:44,000 --> 00:21:47,280
Both countries expanded
their military operations,
430
00:21:47,280 --> 00:21:50,200
with the US establishing a base
in the north of Greenland.
431
00:21:51,760 --> 00:21:52,640
But in 1987,
432
00:21:52,640 --> 00:21:55,160
with the Cold War
coming to an end,
433
00:21:55,160 --> 00:21:56,920
Soviet leader Mikhail Gorbachev
434
00:21:56,920 --> 00:21:58,480
proposed the scaling down
435
00:21:58,480 --> 00:22:00,680
of military activity
in the Arctic.
436
00:22:00,680 --> 00:22:02,800
What Gorbachev was trying
to articulate
437
00:22:02,800 --> 00:22:08,000
was a vision where the
Arctic parties would focus
438
00:22:08,000 --> 00:22:11,120
on areas where they could find
common cause.
439
00:22:13,000 --> 00:22:16,160
In the years that followed,
the eight Arctic nations formed
440
00:22:16,160 --> 00:22:18,920
the Arctic Council and agreed
to work together
441
00:22:18,920 --> 00:22:21,600
on research and
environmental protection.
442
00:22:22,640 --> 00:22:26,560
Arctic and non-Arctic states
opened research bases,
443
00:22:26,560 --> 00:22:28,280
with countries like China,
444
00:22:28,280 --> 00:22:30,640
India and South Korea
investigating
445
00:22:30,640 --> 00:22:32,880
how the region impacts
weather patterns
446
00:22:32,880 --> 00:22:35,360
thousands of kilometres away
in Asia.
447
00:22:35,360 --> 00:22:37,240
The Arctic has had this
reputation
448
00:22:37,240 --> 00:22:39,280
of being sort of an exceptional
449
00:22:39,280 --> 00:22:41,560
place of peace and cooperation.
450
00:22:41,560 --> 00:22:43,080
That narrative continued
451
00:22:43,080 --> 00:22:45,280
until Russia's invasion
of Ukraine.
452
00:22:50,160 --> 00:22:55,320
In 2022, Russia reopened
the Cold War's fault lines.
453
00:22:55,320 --> 00:22:58,680
Within months, Finland and
Sweden applied to join Nato,
454
00:22:58,680 --> 00:23:01,240
the Western military alliance.
455
00:23:01,240 --> 00:23:04,320
The Arctic map became
Russia on one side
456
00:23:04,320 --> 00:23:06,720
and Nato members on the other.
457
00:23:06,720 --> 00:23:10,800
The border between Norway,
Finland and Russia
458
00:23:10,800 --> 00:23:14,480
is effectively a front line
for Russia and Nato.
459
00:23:15,680 --> 00:23:18,800
The Arctic saw direct conflict
when a Russian air base
460
00:23:18,800 --> 00:23:21,920
in the Arctic Circle was
attacked by Ukrainian drones.
461
00:23:24,720 --> 00:23:27,240
The region is critical
to Russia's military.
462
00:23:27,240 --> 00:23:30,360
Most of its nuclear capability
is based there.
463
00:23:31,560 --> 00:23:36,200
Russia has reopened dozens
of Soviet-era bases
464
00:23:36,200 --> 00:23:37,760
and used Arctic waters
465
00:23:37,760 --> 00:23:40,280
to test hypersonic
cruise missiles.
466
00:23:42,080 --> 00:23:44,080
Russian and American
fighter jets have come
467
00:23:44,080 --> 00:23:47,280
into close proximity
in the skies near Alaska.
468
00:23:48,880 --> 00:23:51,960
And the West is also expanding
its Arctic presence.
469
00:23:51,960 --> 00:23:54,520
2024 saw Nato's biggest drills
470
00:23:54,520 --> 00:23:57,200
in the region
since the Cold War.
471
00:23:57,200 --> 00:23:59,400
The US Army has reactivated
472
00:23:59,400 --> 00:24:02,480
a specialised
Arctic force in Alaska,
473
00:24:02,480 --> 00:24:06,160
and President Trump
has proposed something bolder.
474
00:24:06,160 --> 00:24:08,640
We need Greenland for
national security,
475
00:24:08,640 --> 00:24:10,640
and international security,
476
00:24:10,640 --> 00:24:13,840
so I think we'll go as far
as we have to go.
477
00:24:13,840 --> 00:24:17,480
The US still has a military
base in Greenland,
478
00:24:17,480 --> 00:24:20,840
and the response to Mr Trump's
suggestion was clear.
479
00:24:20,840 --> 00:24:22,920
Polls suggest most Greenlanders
480
00:24:22,920 --> 00:24:24,800
don't want to be
part of the US.
481
00:24:24,800 --> 00:24:26,960
The majority want to be
independent.
482
00:24:28,880 --> 00:24:32,400
For Donald Trump, a strong
presence in the Arctic is key
483
00:24:32,400 --> 00:24:35,560
to countering the partnership
between Russia and China,
484
00:24:35,560 --> 00:24:36,840
which the two countries
485
00:24:36,840 --> 00:24:39,240
describe as "a friendship
without limits".
486
00:24:40,600 --> 00:24:42,520
You don't even need binoculars.
487
00:24:42,520 --> 00:24:45,120
You look outside,
you have China,
488
00:24:45,120 --> 00:24:47,080
ships all over the place,
489
00:24:47,080 --> 00:24:49,720
you have Russian ships all over
the place.
490
00:24:49,720 --> 00:24:51,920
We're not letting that happen.
491
00:24:51,920 --> 00:24:54,800
Russian and Chinese coastguard
ships have carried out
492
00:24:54,800 --> 00:24:58,360
joint patrols
in the Arctic Ocean,
493
00:24:58,360 --> 00:24:59,960
and bombers from both countries
494
00:24:59,960 --> 00:25:03,040
have flown together near
Alaska.
495
00:25:03,040 --> 00:25:07,960
The worry is that some
of those drills, exercises,
496
00:25:07,960 --> 00:25:13,280
patrols might generate
a risky escalation,
497
00:25:13,280 --> 00:25:15,400
a miscalculation.
498
00:25:15,400 --> 00:25:16,960
China says its actions are
499
00:25:16,960 --> 00:25:19,480
about deepening cooperation
with Russia
500
00:25:19,480 --> 00:25:21,600
and aren't aimed
at third parties.
501
00:25:21,600 --> 00:25:25,160
However, this relationship
has tensions of its own.
502
00:25:25,160 --> 00:25:29,160
There's been a danger,
that Russia's fully aware of,
503
00:25:29,160 --> 00:25:33,360
is that the more and more it
collaborates with China,
504
00:25:33,360 --> 00:25:37,160
the more it's giving
China legitimacy
505
00:25:37,160 --> 00:25:43,240
to act as a very powerful
near-Arctic state.
506
00:25:43,240 --> 00:25:45,960
China describes itself
as a near-Arctic state,
507
00:25:45,960 --> 00:25:49,960
despite being 1,400km
from the Arctic Circle.
508
00:25:51,440 --> 00:25:54,480
In 2018, it launched a range
of investment projects
509
00:25:54,480 --> 00:25:58,240
it called the Polar Silk Road,
but it's hit roadblocks
510
00:25:58,240 --> 00:26:01,240
in communities wary of being
over-reliant on China.
511
00:26:01,240 --> 00:26:03,560
They want to be a polar
superpower.
512
00:26:03,560 --> 00:26:05,200
We want a relationship to
China,
513
00:26:05,200 --> 00:26:08,360
but we do not want
to be dependent on China.
514
00:26:09,480 --> 00:26:12,680
There's no question that it was
trying to sort of have
515
00:26:12,680 --> 00:26:15,280
a significant impact in the
Arctic,
516
00:26:15,280 --> 00:26:17,560
but it hasn't come to fruition.
517
00:26:17,560 --> 00:26:19,960
Most of China's economic
success in the Arctic
518
00:26:19,960 --> 00:26:22,760
has come from partnering
with Russia on projects like
519
00:26:22,760 --> 00:26:26,520
this natural gas
extraction field,
520
00:26:26,520 --> 00:26:28,960
and shipping this gas has been
made easier
521
00:26:28,960 --> 00:26:31,240
by the Arctic ocean's melting
sea ice.
522
00:26:32,720 --> 00:26:37,600
This was how much there was
in summer 1979,
523
00:26:37,600 --> 00:26:39,120
and this is in 2024 -
524
00:26:39,120 --> 00:26:42,800
a reduction of 2.6 million
square kilometres,
525
00:26:42,800 --> 00:26:45,120
which is roughly
the size of Argentina.
526
00:26:45,120 --> 00:26:46,440
Many see this as an opportunity
527
00:26:46,440 --> 00:26:47,960
to exploit the Arctic for
shipping
528
00:26:47,960 --> 00:26:49,840
during the summer months.
529
00:26:50,960 --> 00:26:53,840
The Arctic Ocean is frozen for
most of the year.
530
00:26:53,840 --> 00:26:56,760
Even in summer, it's an
unpredictable environment.
531
00:26:58,400 --> 00:27:00,360
You're going to have a
situation
532
00:27:00,360 --> 00:27:03,360
where there are very small
windows of time
533
00:27:03,360 --> 00:27:06,800
where there could be the
potential to transit,
534
00:27:06,800 --> 00:27:08,040
and that doesn't offer
535
00:27:08,040 --> 00:27:10,440
the certainty the shipping
industry needs.
536
00:27:12,480 --> 00:27:14,560
While questions remain
about shipping,
537
00:27:14,560 --> 00:27:17,240
there's something else
the melting ice may reveal.
538
00:27:18,480 --> 00:27:21,840
There's been this narrative of
the last frontier of sort of
539
00:27:21,840 --> 00:27:23,680
rich access to resources that
540
00:27:23,680 --> 00:27:26,000
haven't been accessible
in the past.
541
00:27:26,000 --> 00:27:29,200
It's estimated that 30%
of the world's undiscovered gas
542
00:27:29,200 --> 00:27:33,080
and 13% of undiscovered oil
is there.
543
00:27:33,080 --> 00:27:36,280
Minerals, too,
particularly in Greenland.
544
00:27:37,760 --> 00:27:41,280
If the US were to gain access
to Greenland's resources,
545
00:27:41,280 --> 00:27:43,160
it could significantly reduce
546
00:27:43,160 --> 00:27:45,520
our dependence on
foreign suppliers,
547
00:27:45,520 --> 00:27:49,400
particularly China,
which currently operates
548
00:27:49,400 --> 00:27:52,960
a virtual monopoly
on the rare earth market.
549
00:27:52,960 --> 00:27:56,600
But getting these resources is
far from simple.
550
00:27:56,600 --> 00:27:59,680
You're dealing with
environments that are remote,
551
00:27:59,680 --> 00:28:03,760
expensive to operate in,
lacking infrastructure,
552
00:28:03,760 --> 00:28:08,480
and where there is very
little skilled labour close by.
553
00:28:11,240 --> 00:28:14,280
Despite this, global interest
in the region
554
00:28:14,280 --> 00:28:17,640
and what further ice melt
might reveal remains,
555
00:28:17,640 --> 00:28:20,080
and that could introduce
further competition
556
00:28:20,080 --> 00:28:22,040
to this already contested
region.
557
00:28:23,640 --> 00:28:25,120
Thanks for joining me in Palau.
558
00:28:25,120 --> 00:28:26,880
We want your feedback
on Global Eye.
559
00:28:26,880 --> 00:28:28,040
Let us know what you think
560
00:28:28,040 --> 00:28:31,200
on social media, using
561
00:28:31,200 --> 00:28:33,480
We'll be back next week.
Goodbye.
44807
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