Original subtitles

I'm Francis Durnley.

>> I'm Don Nichols.

>> And I'm Adelie Poin Ponte.

>> And this is our first video edition of

Ukraine, the latest. What better way to

show our continued commitment to

covering the war in Ukraine than by

starting a video podcast. And where

better to do it than here in the

country. We've come over the fourth

anniversary since the full-scale

invasion started. Not to mark the

anniversary. We'll leave that to those

outlets that don't look at this thing

every day. But we've come to take the

temperature of civilians and soldiers

alike. get an update on the operational

situation, see how the attacks on energy

infrastructure are impacting people and

their daily lives, and just take the

temperature of Ukraine at the start of

year five of this war. Thanks for

sticking with us. We've just arrived in

Ukraine this morning on the eve of the

fourth anniversary of the full scale

invasion. It's a beautiful day out here.

The temperature is a lot warmer than

it's been in the last few weeks. The sun

is shining and snow is thoring in the

streets, but that doesn't mean the

energy crisis is over. We'll be

reporting from different parts of the

country over the next few days. Stay

with us.

>> Thanks, Dom and Adley. It's Monday, the

23rd of February, 3 years and 365 days

since the full-scale invasion began. And

today, further to those dispatches from

Dom and Adley in Ukraine, I'm joined in

the studio by our Europe editor, James

Crisp, and our chief foreign affairs

commentator David Blair to look at the

overall strategic picture of the war

almost four years on. and David at the

time was actually in number 10 Downing

Street. So, some interesting reflections

I'm sure we'll hear from him. But first,

over to the military updates. Despite

the ongoing peace talks, as the

anniversary week begins, there are the

usual Russian bombardments on Ukraine.

There were explosions at around 4:00

a.m. local time on Sunday in Kev,

followed by successive blasts at regular

intervals before the air alert ended at

around 8:00 a.m. One man was killed and

eight people were pulled from under the

rubble after the ballistic missile

strike, which set a multi-story

residential building ablaze. At least 15

people were injured across Ukraine

overnight in Russian missile and drone

attacks on Adessa and Sunumi, which also

hit apartment blocks, houses, a

warehouse, energy substations, and a

school. In Hezison, a drone attacked a

civilian minibus, injuring three,

including its 71year-old driver. Russia

also targeted Ukraine's energy

infrastructure, causing power blackouts

as temperatures are still consistently

around -10° C.

But the major story over the weekend was

in Leviv in the west of the country

where a Ukrainian woman has been

arrested after a bombing killed a female

police officer and injured dozens more

people. A homemade explosive device

placed in a waste bin detonated in the

western city's historic Oldtown in the

early hours of Sunday after police

arrived to investigate a reported

break-in. As backup units arrived to

help, a second device exploded, causing

the majority of the casualties. The

police officer killed in the attack has

been named as Victoria Spilka. She

married a fellow police officer just

last autumn. She's just 23 years old.

The interior minister said there is

every reason to believe that this crime

was committed on the orders of Russia.

This is not the first time the enemy has

purposefully created deadly traps for

Ukrainian law enforcement officers and

used our recruited citizens to do so.

Perhaps unsurprisingly though, it's

Ukraine which has been keen to project

the sense that it's them who have the

initiative. As we enter this historic

week, more information has been revealed

about the extraordinary operation that

saw Keefe hit a factory that produces

some of Moscow's most sophisticated

ballistic missile systems more than

1,400 km behind Russian lines. The

Ukrainian general staff said in a

statement that Flamingo ground launch

cruise missiles were used to hit the

Votkinsk machine building plant, one of

Russia's most important facilities for

those ballistic missiles, including

short-range mobile Iscanda air missiles,

which we've talked about many, many

times on the podcast, as well as those

vaunted intercontinental ballistic

missiles capable of carrying nuclear

warheads all the way to the United

States. The last time Dom Adley and I

were all together in Ukraine was the

first case of an intercontinental

ballistic missile fired on Ukraine. And

what was quite noteworthy about that is

people were very aware that this was a

significant moment. But once it had

happened, everybody just adjusted and

there have been several instances of

this happening since another signal

really from Moscow that they're capable

of doing these things. But it doesn't

necessarily mark a huge shift in the

war. But nonetheless, lots of commentary

about this significant attack on a

Russian target by the Ukrainians. Now,

just as a reminder, the Flamingo is

Ukraine's domesticallymade

flagship missile with a range of up to

3,000 kilometers.

Other strikes on Russia included the

city of Belgod again where officials

said a large-scale missile strike caused

significant damage to infrastructure

there. The governor said the city is

facing disruptions to electricity, water

supply, and heating. Footage circulating

on public channels showed blasts across

the city, while witnesses said large

parts of Belgrad were left in darkness.

Dozens of Ukrainian drones also targeted

Moscow yesterday, triggering closures at

all four of the region's airports,

according to officials. Now, we've

talked before about just how expensive

that is for Moscow when you're forced to

shut down your airports, as well as it

being hugely politically embarrassing uh

domestically at home when this is a war

that was meant to be over in just 3

days, lest we forget. And they can't

even call it a war. It's a special

military operation still to this day.

There were also sizable attacks over the

weekend on multiple Russian military

command posts and logistic hubs in

Russian occupied territories. Several

targets were reportedly hit in occupied

Zaparisia or blast, including a drone

command post near the town of Zlatil, a

logistics warehouse near the village of

Bdanifka, and a repair base near the

village of Rosivka. In occupied parts of

Hzono blast, Ukrainian forces reportedly

hit a command and observation post and

troop concentration area near Lubka.

There were also two warehouses hit in

occupied Crimea. But let's go next to

the battlefield. President Zilinski has

claimed that Ukrainian forces have

liberated more than 300 square

kilometers of territory from Russian

occupation in that new southern counter

offensive their term which we've been

reporting on as Ukraine seeks to

capitalize on the Russian loss of

Starlink after SpaceX blocked it over

the last week and a half or so. I won't

go into too many details, Zalinski said,

but today I can congratulate our army

first and foremost, all the defense

forces, because 300 square kilometers

have been liberated as reported by our

friends at the Institute for the Study

of War, the US-based think tank. Open

source material suggests Ukrainian

forces have liberated multiple

settlements around the Deniprop

Zaparisia Oblast administrative border

in the last Fortnite or so. The ISW

cites a Russian mill blogger as

acknowledging Ukrainian forces advanced

east of Nova Pravka and geoloccated

footage indicates progress southeast of

Alexandrifka and likely liberating

settlements such as Orestil among

others. So that's where we are in the

military realm today. But let's turn now

to updates in the political world and

I'm going to bring in the Telegraph's

Europe editor James Crisp and our chief

foreign affairs commenter David Blair.

Thank you both very much for coming on

the podcast again today and in full

technical for the first time. Not sure

if that's a good thing or not.

>> Full and glorious technical

>> indeed. Well, we'll come to the latest

on the energy row that's ongoing between

Hungary, Slovakia, and Ukraine in a

moment. But first of all, because I was

talking about President Silinsky a

moment ago and an interview that he gave

over the weekend, he also said this as

part of his conversations approaching

this historic milestone, saying Putin

has already started World War II. He

said, "The question now is how much

territory he's able to seize and how to

stop him. Russia wants to impose on the

world, a different way of life, and

change the lives people have chosen for

themselves."

So James, first of all, fundamentally

after four years now of war, Europe's

bloodiest since the Second World War, is

that how this conflict is viewed from

Brussels?

>> I mean, I think even among those sort of

leaders and politicians who would sort

of shy away from using that language,

the decisions that are being made kind

of reflect how seriously it's being

taken. You know, there is recognition in

in Brussels. It's almost a sort of a a

commonplace uh that diplomats and envoys

will say look you know the Ukrainians

are dying so we don't have to you know

they are the buffer people don't it is

not a sort of a taboo idea to suggest

that you know Russia could push on into

the Baltic states if the Baltic states

weren't part of NATO of course so there

is no sort of question that you know

after a long sort of period of naivity

when you look at uh the Minsk Accords

and you look at what happened to Georgia

and all of the sort of Russian

aggression and misinformation in the

region even what happened in you know

Ssbury

uh that people see this as a genuine

threat and to the extent that

certain things which would never have

been thought of before in in the EU are

now talked about in very sort of

clearsighted terms um not least Ukraine

joining the EU.

>> Uh I mean the the the original sort of

uh relationship agreement that was drawn

up before the invasion was specifically

designed to keep Ukraine out of the EU.

It's like give them something but not

full membership. We're not going to go

that far. No one wants it. That's

changed now. you know, okay, yes, you

have outliers, you have your Hungares,

your Slovakia,

uh you have kind of a soft underbelly,

but you know, there is more broadly

speaking a belief that Ukraine will one

day become a member of the EU. And

that's huge

>> because if Ukraine becomes a member of

the EU, so does uh a lot of the Western

Balkan countries, Albania,

North Macedonia, Montenegro. I mean,

there's even talk now about Iceland

turning its membership of the European

Economic Area into full membership, not

because of Putin, but because Donald

Trump keeps on calling Iceland Greenland

and Greenland Iceland. So, you can sort

of understand why they're getting a

little bit worried. Um, so I think, you

know, if Ukraine joins and the only

reason Ukraine would join is a direct

uh uh consequence of of Russian

aggression against Europe, I mean, I

think we're talking about something as,

you know, a shift as big certainly as

the 2004 big bang enlargement and and

probably as big as the fall of the

Berlin Wall in in CA in terms of what it

means for

>> European politics. I mean there are

you know Ukraine has a large population

you know that could in the future shift

the dial on EU decision making you know

uh it could mean you know you start

talking about Ukraine and Poland maybe

working together on on EU files that's

sort of you know that is that's kind of

a gamecher and that's without even

thinking about the the step change in

attitudes towards defense you know

there's a real sort of push uh in EU

circles and you We've said this before

that the EU does take a long time to get

going, but when it gets going, once that

sort of tanker is turned around, you

know, it can build up speed and it can

build up momentum. Uh, you know, it had

a slow start in responding to the corona

virus uh crisis with the vaccines. But,

you know, eventually it was the biggest

exporter of vaccines in the world.

They're going to try and do something

similar on defense. So, and defense

manufacturing. I'm not saying any of

this is going to be easy or simple or

there won't be uh mess ups or things

that there will certainly be things

which frustrate us in in Britain as well

uh as is as is sort of traditional. But

I think if you think that we're now

entering the fifth year and if you cast

your mind back to all the talk about war

weariness,

uh you cast your mind back to Olaf

Schultz talking about or maybe sending

some helmets and some pillows to UK

>> 5,000 helmets. I remember it well.

>> You know, uh we're in a very different

space to to that. And I think you have

to actually say to be fair to the EU at

a time when the Americans have kind of

gone

I don't know. I'm Europe editor. Doesn't

matter. I can call them rogue. If I was

US editor, I wouldn't say they've gone

rogue. They've gone mad or whatever.

>> Uh,

you know, I think Europe has stood up uh

to a degree and I include Britain in

that and helped to certainly with aid

and is going to try and do more on

weapons. Um, and I think that that is a

real difference. And I think it's the

sort of thing that you couldn't see

doing unless you thought that there was

a serious almost existential threat.

People in Brussels always say the same

thing. You know, what Europe needs is a

crisis. The only time we ever do

anything is when there's a real crisis.

You know, migrant crisis, Euro zone

crisis, all of those things. The answers

to every crisis in uh in Brussels is, oh

well, we must have more Europe. More

Europe is the answer. Okay. Well, in

this case, we're talking about quite a

lot more Europe. We're talking, you

know, 27 member states to

maybe another 10, right? It's six

Western Balkan countries plus Iceland,

plus Ukraine. May, you know, uh, okay,

not quite 10, but a lot more, you know.

Uh,

>> and it's not just Russia, okay? you

know, there's the threat of China and

there's the fact that the US is is now

seen as as far more unreliable. Um, but

there is a real sort of I think

belief that uh Europe as a whole, not

just EU, but has to be able to take

responsibility for its own security. And

I don't think that was the case, but it

certainly hasn't been the case for most

of our lives.

>> So, there has been a change, but is it

enough? I think that's very much an open

question given just how horrific this

war continues to be. But David, you were

there in number 10 Downing Street when

this all began. I remember this time a

year ago you were sharing your memories

of that opening day and perhaps you can

just very briefly remind us of that. But

I'm also really interested to hear what

happened next. What was the sense of

momentum after the full-scale invasion

happened and it became obvious that

Ukraine was going to survive? because it

was not clear, was it, when it began?

>> No. And on day one, it's well known that

the British and the Americans knew that

the invasion was coming. Uh, so it

wasn't a shock. We had been expecting

this. Uh, but even so, when it happened,

there was a great sense of the enormity

of what had just fallen upon the people

of Ukraine and the stakes as well. And

while uh the invasion had been foreseen,

the general view among European leaders

and the experts who advised them was

that Russia would probably achieve a

pretty swift victory. They would at the

very least conquer Ukraine uh conquer

Kiev uh and overthrow Zalinski. Uh and

the general view was that Ukraine would

not last very long. So on the 25th of

February, I remember hearing the leader

of a certain European country saying in

the coming days or even hours, a free

Ukraine may no longer exist. And that

was a general view. Um I should say that

there was one person who thought

differently and that was Boris Johnson.

He believed from the very beginning that

Putin had made a colossal error by

attacking Ukraine and he thought the

Ukrainians were going to hold out. And

it's very interesting that over the week

that followed the invasion, it became

clear that the Russian plan was a mess.

It was being incredibly incompetently

executed. The assaults on Khiv and Kiev

quickly began to go wrong. And the it

was obvious that the Ukrainians were not

just fighting back, but fighting back

very effectively. And of course,

Silinski famously did not flee Kiev and

stayed in his capital. And it became

clear that the forecast, the general

expert forecast of what was likely to

happen was proving to be wrong, but

proving to be wrong in a way that was

from our point of view immensely

encouraging. Uh, and if you look at a

speech that Boris Johnson gave in Warsaw

on the 1st of March, so day six of the

full-scale invasion, and you'll see he

says there, the Ukrainians have

succeeded in snarling up the attack on

Khave in Kiev. and he says they're

putting up his phrase tenacious and

astonishing resistance and suddenly it

became clear to European leaders look

it's worth supplying them with weapons

because they're doing quite well and it

was that simple fact that Ukraine was

succeeding in defending itself that

opened the floodgates for Europe to

actually step up and start supplying

weapons. Was your sense in number 10 at

the time that if Britain Boris Johnson

with his theatricality

and view that you've just articulated on

this if he hadn't have done that that

Europe would have not been as proactive

as it ultimately became? How critical do

you think that was when the history

books are written? Do you think that

London had a key role to play? The most

important thing was Ukraine's success in

resisting the onslaught and Zalinsk's

bravery in staying in Kiev even when

people were urging him to get out. So

that was the most important thing. But

yes, I think the fact that Boris Johnson

had sent 2,000 anti-tank missiles

actually a month before the invasion.

Now, we weren't the first country to

supply weapons to Ukraine. Others had

done that earlier, but we were the first

country to do it openly just as the

invasion was being threatened. Uh, and

people were waiting to see whether that

would actually make any difference. And

I don't know if you remember, but it was

the Daily Telegraph which reported

>> uh from a certain frontline position

near Kh. Yes.

>> Our correspondent Roland Olipant saw

those British end-laws.

>> He'll be on the podcast tomorrow telling

us about it, I'm sure,

>> in the hands of Ukrainian soldiers. And

then the Ukrainian soldiers very proudly

showed him the wreckage of the Russian

tanks that they're just incinerated

using those missiles. So it was a very

extraordinary demonstration of how if

you sent these weapons, they really

could make a difference. Um so before

then people had thought that if we were

going to be arming Ukraine, perhaps what

we'll end up arming is a guerilla

insurgency in an occupied country. But

in the weeks following the invasion, it

became clear that no, no, no, what

you're arming is a country fighting for

its life and you are supplying a war of

national defense which could succeed

>> and that's a very different proposition

and it's much easier for countries to to

get behind arming a nation in that kind

of situation.

I think it's noteworthy just as another

political update from over the weekend

that the current British defense

secretary John Healey has said that he

hopes to be the defense secretary that

puts troops on the ground in Ukraine

after a ceasefire. Now, we've had this

discussion countless times on the

podcast about how helpful it is to be

talking about after a ceasefire because

it may disincentivize Putin to actually

um stop fighting. But do you think

that's an a significant intervention,

David? I think what it's wishful

thinking because what he's really saying

is I wish this war would end soon. Don't

we all because and and absolutely right

that he should say that because everyone

wants that and then once it's over of

course under the the emerging agreement

that may or may not succeed if it were

to happen then British troops would go

to Ukraine as part of the famous

coalition of the willing. I still don't

think it's being explained clearly

enough what those soldiers will be there

to do. I mean, I sometimes see them

described as it would be a peacekeeping

force. And of course, it wouldn't be

anything of the sort. They wouldn't be

impartial mediators between two sides.

They would be there to guarantee Ukraine

security and to fight alongside Ukraine

should there be, heaven forbid, a third

invasion after any peace settlement.

>> I mean, I think there's still a lot of

people um who who I speak to, sort of

European diplomats, who would say that

we don't actually think that Putin is

serious about wanting a peace deal

anyway. And I think that's the view held

in London as well that a lot of the time

when we're talking about these sort of

European boots on the ground, it's it's

it's kind of tapping Trump along, right?

You know, making yes, we are listening

to you boss. Yes, we are going through

the motions, but in the hope that

realization will dawn that, you know,

your interlocutor in these uh

negotiations is not someone you can

trust. Well, it's funny you should

mention that because that was going to

be the next story I was going to talk

about, which is you've uh you've beaten

me to it uh to it, James. So, Steve

Wickoff, the US special envoy, a man

we've spoken about on the podcast

countless times over the last few

months, he's given an interview with Fox

News where he said

>> that Putin has never been anything other

than straight with him. He says, "I say

that and I get attacked, but that is an

accurate statement. He's told me what

his red lines are." I mean,

>> well, I'm I feel very relaxed that a man

with such a razor sharp intellect is

handling such an important negotiation.

>> Indeed. And I think that this is just

indicative really of of of what the US

view is of the Russian position at the

moment that they believe genuinely that

there is a peace deal to be done and

that Putin has been incentivized to stop

this. But I think most of us here in

this room and those who've been

following the war closely would disagree

very strongly with that in the way that

you've just articulated.

>> I mean I think you know one of his the

problem is that Europe is is shut out of

these negotiations but we're on the

sidelines talking about something which

is happening on our continent and we

don't have any of the tools the

necessary tools to actually demand a

seat on the table. we can just say yes

please please please please please

listen to us and you know Trump doesn't

care about that and neither does Putin

but you know this is the unfortunate and

unforeseen sort of consequence of you

know years of a peace dividend

>> you know we don't have the hard power to

demand a seat on the table so perhaps

our allies end up being on the menu

>> now we mentioned earlier on this ongoing

row between Slovakia Hungary and Ukraine

over the uh Dusba pipeline. I'm not

going to go over all of this again

because we spoke about it quite in

detail last week, but what is

interesting is a development. The

Hungary are now saying that they would

be willing to block um the very

important 90 billion

>> euro package loan to Ukraine as a

consequence of this. That does feel like

quite an escalation, doesn't it?

>> It is an escalation. Um but it's an

escalation that uh Victor Orban has uh

pulled off u many many times in

Brussels. Um there is no sort of

if if we had a penny for every time

Hungary threatened to block something or

delay something uh to do with Ukraine,

we'd have we'd have a lot of pennies

basically. So he's um doing this

not for sort of grand geopolitical

reasons but very standard domestic

political reasons. Hungary has an

election on April the 12th. Victor Orban

is uh behind him of polls uh behind him

of polls to a guy who is a pro more pro-

European

uh but still pretty conservative

conservative guy. Um now again we've

been down this road before. Victor Orban

frequently has challenges at election

times and people uh in Brussels get very

excited thinking we're finally going to

get rid of the guy and then he ends up

winning. Uh it is possible that this

time might be different. But what

Orban's campaign, his election campaign

is based around blocking Ukraine from

joining the EU, which he would say is

stopping Hungary from being drawn into

the war. You know, this is why he

opposes sanctions from time to time

before he ultimately agrees them. He

accuses the opposition because of their,

you know, perceived europhilia to to

sort of be risking Hungarian security.

There are some shocking videos quite

easy to find on Twitter about where they

have a guy who looks like a Nazi SS guy

executing a Hungarian soldier as a

little girl cries. It's obvious it's

been generated by AI and it says, you

know, don't take any risks with the

future. Vote Fides.

>> So, look, doing this is his way of

saying to

not to people in Budapest. People in

Budapest don't vote for Orban. Uh it's

people in the countryside who vote for

him. It's saying to those people, you

know, watch out, there could be a war.

Vote for me. Uh I mean, and you know,

he's not an idiot, right? Uh he is the

EU's longest serving prime minister now.

And um I think that you need to see it.

They will find a way to give him

something so that he can go back to

Budapest and say, "Look what I've got

from Brussels. I've won." Yeah.

>> And uh you know I don't think we'll see

I mean all this stuff with Trump the

summit the peace talk summit if that was

to happen just before an election you've

got little hungry what is it 11 million

people something like that being the

venue for this huge sort of geopolitical

moment uh makes Victor Orban look like a

guy who can trop the world stage.

>> They're still very very keen for that to

take place. So I was in Budapest back in

January as listeners will recall and

that is something they kept pushing is

they really really want a summit doesn't

have to be the summit but a summit

before April 12th.

>> You've already got you've already got

Donald Trump who's endorsed him. Uh

you've got Marco Rubio who's endorsed

him. Victor Orban was the only I think

European leader to endorse Donald Trump

in the before the US presidential

elections.

>> So I I mean I think look you know he is

he is

clearly a darling of sort of MAGA

conservatives. Um, and uh I don't quite

understand how a nationalist squares

support or sort of even if it's indirect

support for another country invading

another one. But you know, since when

have politicians been consistent?

>> You'll have to listen to the documentary

that's coming down the track from from

us, James, because that's one of the

subjects that we do a deeper dive into.

Um, I certainly felt I I understood

didn't sympathize with but understood

the Hungarian position much more clearly

having been there and spent some time

interviewing some of uh some of Mr.

Orban's uh senior officials and I think

we'll have more on that probably within

the next uh two or three weeks.

>> Lots of strange arguments about language

rights.

>> Yes indeed. Well, yes, that's the some

of the the less uh scintillating

discourse that we had while we were

there. But nonetheless, it is important

for understanding their position. but

also the Hungarian diaspora in Ukraine

as well is very relevant to this. But

before we turn to our next topic, a

short dispatch in Ukraine.

>> So this is our first day in reporting.

We're in Odessa for the day and we've

seen firsthand what it means to live

through the energy crisis that's been

unfolding in Ukraine for the last few

weeks. Just behind me here is a tent

where people have been gathering for

some warm food, a cup of tea, a cup of

coffee, charging their devices and power

banks because the apartment buildings

were in a big apartment complex in

Odessa. Most of them do not have either

heating or electricity. And you can hear

around me the the churning of the

generators. Actually, when we came into

the complex, in front of every door,

there's a generator powering either the

local shop at the on the ground floor or

the lights um by the staircase, there's

a generator over there behind the tent

that's helping it keep warm. Um and

really what's been most striking to me

is how noisy the energy crisis it is

because you have generators churning

everywhere across the city. We've talked

to several people, a young family with a

2-year-old son, um elderly residents of

the apartment buildings, and they've all

been telling us how hard it's been to

live through the last few weeks. Most of

them can't cook at home. Um they need

to, you know, go to the shop every day.

Um the young family we spoke to uh live

on the 17th floor with a 2-year-old.

They've got to carry the pram and carry

the baby up and down several times a

day. It's been really, really hard. And

now the sun is setting. It's almost

nighttime and most people won't have

electricity or heating to go through the

night.

>> But bringing you back in, David, the

there's another story that we're

reporting in the newspaper today, which

is that Russian spies have turned

properties across Western Europe into a

network of Trojan horses designed to

unleash a coordinated sabotage campaign.

We'll link to this in the show notes.

This is coming from senior intelligence

officials. The feeling is that they're

exploiting legal frameworks and uh

purchasing very sensitive real estate

close to military and civilian sites at

at least a dozen European nations as

part of this escalating hybrid war. I

mean, when you were in number 10, David,

do you think there was a sense then of

just quite how serious the hybrid war

could become if the war in Ukraine were

allowed to persist? because we've now

seen drones entering European airspace,

Poland, Germany, other countries.

Article 5 itself potentially threatened.

I mean, was this ever on the radar as

being a possibility uh this this if the

war was allowed to continue?

>> Yes. And the question really was if

Europe was going to start arming Ukraine

on mass as we hope they would, how would

Russia respond? How would they

retaliate? And one of their options will

be to conduct these kinds of operations

on European soil, sabotage operations,

all the things which which have in fact

happened. And to preempt that, you might

remember that uh lots of European

countries went about expelling Russian

diplomats. Yeah. Clearing out Russian

embassies in just about every European

Union capital. We had already done that

in 2018 after the Ssbury poisonings when

we chucked out 23 Russian officials from

London. The rest of Europe followed

really on a on a really much bigger

scale in 2022. And if I recall rightly,

by the end of the year, some 600 Russian

diplomats, many of them intelligence

officers under diplomatic cover, had

been thrown out. And that was designed

to make it much harder for the Russians

to to carry out this kind of campaign.

But of course, you can't prevent it

completely. Uh, and the latest steps

that they're taking show how determined

they are

>> and arguably more dangerous as a tactic

because they're using people who are far

less capable, far less trained, but are

just disposable individuals recruited

from third countries.

>> Yes. And they're overwhelming now using

people who are not under official cover

of any kind. Um, so on the one hand,

that's that's more dangerous. But on the

other hand, from from our perspective,

the fact that they're using untrained,

untried people is probably less less

threatening than the alternative.

>> A grizzly milestone this week. We never

want to make any predictions, but with

your respective expertise, do you want

to make any predictions in the European

context about how much further Europe

would be willing to go this year, James?

And then they

>> I mean I think um I mean one thing I

would sort of say is that I I'm a little

bit concerned by how normalized talk of

land for peace has become recently. I

mean there was a point when that was the

reddest of red lines and you know now it

feels like that's almost taken for

granted that that's going to happen.

It's more of a feeling than anything

else. I think that's

you know that is a worrying sort of

development but if it does lead to a

kind of frozen conflict then I think we

see a lot of armoring armor you know a

lot of the European nations building up

their

uh weaponry while doing it in a

situation when you know public budgets

tight inflation is still rising partly

because of the war in Ukraine cost of

living crisis and all of that um there's

got to be a cultural shift shift. You

know, people have got to be ready or

sort of be more ready to think about the

concept of their children being sent to

die.

>> Is your sense that European capitals

think this war is going to end this

year?

>> No. No, I don't think they do. I I think

I think people think it will continue

like this for some time that Putin isn't

serious for peace and as serious about

peace and I mean and that's why you have

countries like France and Germany

talking about uh conscription.

uh why you have Fredick Mertz talking

about uh asking for shelter underneath

Trident or uh you know the forrap in in

France you know why there are

discussions about you know how much

further that umbrella can sort of be

while at the same time a big part of the

incorporation of Ukraine into the single

market which would and EU membership

which would require a lot of rules to be

sort of torn up and rewritten you know a

lot of that will be based on defense

cooperation. The idea that you know this

expertise that Ukraine has has has has

learned at such high cost on the

battlefield can sort of that they would

start to train European armies and that

the drones the expertise they have in

drones would start to flood into uh sort

of European arsenals and in return

there's money and then there's more

weapons and it's just it feels like it's

all being done very much sort of on the

hoof. uh and and I think as a continent

we still feel sort of underprepared and

under

underpowered

you know there's uh I think and I

include Ukraine within this you know

there's a sense of u middle small to

middling powers at risk of being

squashed by the superpowers

>> is that your instinct as well David

>> I um one thing I'd add is a huge

development in the last four years is

that Ukraine Ukraine has now become the

foremost military power in Europe. It's

an extraordinary thing. You know, our

premise four years ago was that Ukraine

was militarily very weak. Uh and that it

that was why there were these

pessimistic forecasts of of of a Russian

military success. But when you think

that Ukraine without really having much

of a navy neutralized the Russian Black

Sea fleet and drove it out of its home

port of Sevastapole, Ukraine without

having much of an air force denied

Russian air superiority over its country

from almost the first day of the war

right up until now. And Ukraine starting

with an army that was quite weak in 2022

has now contained Russia to 20% of the

country when of course they began in in

in 2022 controlling just under 10. So in

fact they've actually added only just

over 10 despite having lost the latest

estimate is a third of a million dead. I

mean these are extraordinary military

achievements. uh which means that uh

bringing Ukraine fully into the European

security structure is overwhelmingly in

Europe's interest too because you're

getting a very powerful ally which has

mastered warfare as as it is fought at

high intensity today more than anyone

else among on the continent.

>> Shame it can't join NATO.

>> Well, uh perhaps this this war will end

with Ukraine being functionally a member

of NATO. if not in name than in fact.

>> Yeah.

>> Well, thanks gents very much for your

time today. Let's turn to our final

thoughts now. An opportunity to leave

our viewers and listeners with um your

final musings of the day. Where would

you like to leave them?

>> I suppose um I've been thinking as we

approach the anniversary

uh quite a bit about Vladimir Zalinski.

And I think you know no one could fail

to be impressed by the sort of the

transformation this man went through

after the invasion. This sort of

apotheiois. He turned himself into you

know a national figurehead and you know

quite swiftly into an international

figurehead as well. I mean there were

comparisons made with Churchill and

other sort of great leaders. He was

touring around European capitals either

by video or in person addressing

parliaments making sure that those

speeches spoke to those those those sort

of national concerns as well. I mean in

Ireland he talked about the famine for

example and I mean I've never sort of

failed to think found his his speeches

sort of very sort of moving and

affecting. Um but you know it's been

four years right? Uh Churchill you know

he did it for five and was voted out

afterwards and you sort of how long can

he sort of maintain that level. We've

obviously we've had some of the

corruption scandals among people sort of

close to him. There have been setbacks.

There's the sort of the absolutely

astonishing dressing down in the Oval

Office which he's managed to bounce back

from. But if you I think it's hard to

imagine how much pressure he is under as

a man

and at the same time he has to maintain

this this this leadership

quality that he has while the president

of the US is saying you need to have an

election. Uh, and I mean it's this is

not some sort of particularly uh

high-grade uh uh insight or analysis,

but you know I do sort of

uh I I sort of have concern for him. But

you know, he's

I have faith in him as well. But I I it

must be an astonishing amount of

pressure and I think that there's been a

period where he hasn't got the credit he

deserved recently. So

>> yes, I mean I think that for all of the

critiques that are made of President

Zilinski, if you imagine him not in the

picture, what that would mean for

Ukraine on the world stage, it doesn't

bear thinking about in many respects,

not all respects, but in many respects

given the clout that he has achieved by,

as you were saying earlier on, the

decision to to stay in Kev this day,

more or less, give or take, a couple of

days four years ago. But David, where

would you like to leave everyone today?

Well, someone very clever whose name

I've forgotten said, "The only thing

worse than having allies is not having

allies." But the whole business of

managing your allies requires the

highest grade diplomacy. Particularly

when you've got dozens of them. It's

fantastic to have them, but keeping them

all on board and managing them,

particularly when one of them is so

vastly more powerful than any of the

others and is now so murial and conducts

foreign policy in a way that frankly no

country has ever really conducted it

before. Um, so what we see from Zilinski

is he's certainly a great performer and

he's certainly got raw physical courage

which is extraordinary. The question

really is, does he have the highgrade

diplomatic skills that he's going to

need to hold together the coalition

behind Ukraine?

>> I guess at some point as well, he's

going to also have to make a big

sacrifice potentially. You know, can he

carry that through? He's being defiant,

defiant, defiant. Will he be actually

at some point? It's going to have to be

>> Has he painted himself into a corner?

That's the problem.

>> That's Yeah,

>> that's the problem. I remember a couple

of days after the awful Oval Office

encounter with President Trump, I had

the the privilege of sitting with

President Zilinski and putting it to him

whether he would ever be willing to sign

a deal in any form that would concede

territory, whether legally or in effect,

to Russia that it didn't currently

control. And he said, and I've said this

on the podcast many times, but he said

unequivocally, there is no chance that I

would do that. That would not be a peace

deal. that would be a capitulation. Now,

if that really is the Ukrainian

position, that puts him out of sync with

probably, as you're saying, many

European capitals who would be willing

to do that to get this across the line

and well, certainly with Russia, I would

posit. So, as you say, I think that is a

key key question. But the Ukrainians are

defiant. The Ukrainians are certainly

defiant and do not believe that their

position is weakening. Many of them

believe it's it's strengthening, but

that will be a subject, no doubt, that

we'll continue to discuss further in

this historic week. Thanks for joining

us.

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