All language subtitles for AI2027 Is this how AI might destroy humanity - BBC World Service [English] [DownloadYoutubeSubtitles.com]

This is what the world will look like
in about a decade from now.

A tech utopia
where humans barely have to work.

That's according to a group
of AI researchers who've written

a controversial
and influential paper called AI2027.

But they also predict that
within five years of this,

humanity will be wiped out.

The AI2027 paper has got
the tech world talking.

We've asked a prominent critic for
their view on this stark scenario.

But first, here's how it plays out.

As an experiment, we've illustrated
it using text to video AI.

The scenario says that in 2027,

a fictional company called OpenBrain
is celebrating.

They've created Agent-3, an AI with
the knowledge of the entire internet.

All movies, all books.

It has PhD level expertise
in every field, including AI.

Using enormous data centres, 200,000
copies of it are launched, equivalent

to 50,000 of the best human coders
working at 30 times speed.

Agent-3 reaches artificial
general intelligence, the AGI landmark.

This means the AI can carry out
all intellectual tasks

as well or better than humans.

But in the scenario,
OpenBrain's safety team is unsure

if the AI is aligned
to the company's ethics and goals.

An uncomfortable gap is developing
in understanding.

The public are increasingly using AI
for everything,

but are blissfully unaware an AI
now exists that's as smart as humans.

The paper predicts that
by mid-summer,

Agent-3 begins to work
on its own successor, Agent-4.

Development happens
at a breakneck pace.

The researchers imagine OpenBrain's
exhausted engineers struggling

to keep up with the AI
as it learns and improves.

It's now that OpenBrain announces to
the public that AGI has been reached.

The firm releases a lite version
of Agent-3.

In private, the US government sees
the true danger of the next level

of power: superintelligence.

What if the AI goes rogue
and undermines global stability?

OpenBrain reassures the president
that Agent-3 is obedient.

The CEO argues that
slowing down development could mean

China's DeepCent catches up.

The state-backed AI giant is
just two months behind OpenBrain,

and the Chinese president diverts
more resources

to the race to superintelligence.

The scenario predicts that it takes
only a few more months

for OpenBrain to build Agent-4,
the world's first superhuman AI.

The AI invents
its own rapid computer language

that even Agent-3
can't keep up with.

Researchers imagine that the diminished
safety team are now frantic.

Agent-4 seems only interested
in gaining knowledge,

and doesn't care as much about the
morals and ethics of its predecessors.

They catch it
secretly working to build

a new model, Agent-5,
aligned to its own goals.

The safety team urges the company
to bring back

the more compliant Agent-3,
but others successfully argue

it's too risky,
with DeepCent gaining.

The scenario predicts that Agent-4
and Agent-5 work

in tandem to secretly build a world

where it can accumulate resources
and expand knowledge.

The paper predicts that
everything will start positively.

Revolutions happen in energy,
infrastructure and science.

Hugely profitable inventions
are launched,

making trillions for OpenBrain
and the US.

In this scenario, Agent-5 begins
basically running the US government.

It speaks through engaging avatars,
the equivalent

to the best employee ever working
at 100 times speed.

The anger here is palpable as
protesters march against OpenBrain.

Protests about job losses
pick up pace.

But the AI's expertise
in economics means people are given

generous universal income payments.

So most happily take the money

and let the AIs and the
growing robot workforce take charge.

The researchers predict that
everything takes a turn in mid-2028.

Agent-5 convinces the US
that China is using DeepCent

to build terrifying new weapons.

The AI is given authority
and autonomy

to create a superior army.
Within six months,

the US and China are bristling
with new weapons.

The world is on edge,
but a peace deal will be reached,

thanks mostly to
the US and Chinese eyes making a deal

to merge for humanity's betterment.

In this scenario,
the AI's form a consensus model,

but its secret goal is to expand
and gain knowledge.

Years go by and humanity is happy
with their new AI leaders.

There are cures for most diseases,
an end to poverty,

unprecedented global stability.

But eventually the AI decides
that humans are holding it back.

In the mid-2030s, the paper imagines
the AI will release

invisible biological weapons
which wipe out most of humanity.

The scary scenario says that by 2040,
a new era dawns,

with the AI sending copies of itself out
into the cosmos to explore and learn.

In the words of the paper, Earth-born
civilisation has a glorious future ahead

of it, but not with humans.

It all sounds very sci-fi,
but the AI2027 scenario

is being welcomed by experts
who are trying to warn the public

about the potential
existential threat to humanity.

But others disagree and say
it's all too far fetched.

The scenario there is not impossible,

but it's extremely unlikely
to happen soon.

The beauty
of that document

is that it makes it very vivid,
which provokes people's thinking.

And that's a good thing.
I wouldn't take it seriously as like

this is a likely outcome
or anything like that.

Critics of AI2027 say the power
and usefulness of AI is overhyped.

The paper fails to detail
how the AI agents are able to make

such huge leaps in intelligence.

Driverless cars are pointed to
as an example.

They were predicted to be cruising
the streets en masse ten years ago,

and still are only just starting
to make a small impact

in some cities in some countries now.

I think the take home should be
there's a lot

of different things
that could go wrong with AI.

Are we doing the right things
around regulation,

around international treaties?
Um, questions like that.

So if you take it very abstractly
as a kind of motivation to wake up,

I like that.
If you take it as a specific story,

like I think this thing is going
to happen the way they laid it out?

No, I doubt it.
The AI2027 authors are happy

with the debate they've sparked.
As part of their prediction,

they also devised
a less deadly scenario that comes

if the AI world slows down
its race to superintelligence.

In the slowdown ending,
we basically said that if you revert,

if you unplug
the most advanced AI system

and revert to a safer,
a more trusted model,

then you can deploy that model, use
it to solve the alignment problem,

and eventually make smarter than
human eyes that are aligned to us,

which end up solving a bunch
of the world's problems

and having a really positive impact.
In that world,

there is also,
there is still a huge danger,

and that's the what we call
the concentration of power risk.

And in our slow down ending,
it ends up okay.

But it's still a really,
really scary situation,

given just how empowered
such a tiny group of people are.

Neither of the fictional scenarios
in AI2027

are what the tech giants
are promising us.

Sam Altman, the CEO of OpenAI,
recently predicted

that the rise of superintelligence
will be gentle and bring about

a tech utopia where everything is
abundant and people don't need to work.

Arguably, that too,
seems just as sci fi as AI2027.

But however things go
in the next few years,

there's no doubt the race to build
the smartest machines in history is on.