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These are the user uploaded subtitles that are being translated: 1 00:00:00,000 --> 00:00:03,840 In the methodical science of market analysis as developed by Richard 2 00:00:04,000 --> 00:00:08,860 the transition of a stock from a sideways trading range into a new 3 00:00:08,860 --> 00:00:10,020 moment of immense opportunity. 4 00:00:10,420 --> 00:00:15,520 This event, the breakout, is the point where a long and often tedious period of 5 00:00:15,520 --> 00:00:17,760 preparation culminates in decisive action. 6 00:00:18,920 --> 00:00:23,520 It is the first public signal that the composite man, the amalgam of large 7 00:00:23,520 --> 00:00:27,880 informed financial interests, has completed his campaign of quiet 8 00:00:28,780 --> 00:00:31,280 and is now ready to engineer a markup in price. 9 00:00:32,100 --> 00:00:36,300 For the average market participant, however, this moment is fraught with 10 00:00:37,220 --> 00:00:41,840 Many breakouts fail, trapping eager buyers at the top of the range just 11 00:00:41,840 --> 00:00:42,860 the price collapses. 12 00:00:43,820 --> 00:00:49,440 These false moves, or upthrusts, are a common tool of manipulation designed to 13 00:00:49,440 --> 00:00:50,440 mislead the crowd. 14 00:00:51,240 --> 00:00:55,580 The critical task for the serious student of the market, therefore, is to 15 00:00:55,580 --> 00:00:57,680 how to verify the power behind a breakout. 16 00:00:58,440 --> 00:01:02,280 It is the ability to distinguish between a genuine display of overwhelming 17 00:01:02,280 --> 00:01:05,500 demand and a deceptive manipulative maneuver. 18 00:01:06,440 --> 00:01:10,140 Wyckoff did not rely on hope or guesswork in this crucial endeavor. 19 00:01:10,840 --> 00:01:16,340 He formulated a series of precise tests based on the irrefutable evidence of 20 00:01:16,340 --> 00:01:21,340 price action and volume to confirm the validity of a breakout and to identify 21 00:01:21,340 --> 00:01:25,320 the exact point where the path of least resistance had definitively turned 22 00:01:25,320 --> 00:01:26,320 upward. 23 00:01:26,510 --> 00:01:28,450 This is the story of how he did it. 24 00:01:28,950 --> 00:01:32,870 Before we continue, please subscribe and leave a quick comment, even one word. 25 00:01:33,890 --> 00:01:38,750 This small action helps the algorithm show this video to more people and tells 26 00:01:38,750 --> 00:01:40,930 us these deep dives are worth making. 27 00:01:41,790 --> 00:01:46,070 To fully understand the verification of a breakout, one must first briefly 28 00:01:46,070 --> 00:01:48,430 revisit the market phase that precedes it. 29 00:01:51,150 --> 00:01:55,090 As established in our previous discussion, accumulation is the 30 00:01:55,090 --> 00:01:57,830 process of absorbing the floating supply of a stock. 31 00:01:58,690 --> 00:02:03,850 It occurs within a trading range, a sideways price channel bounded by 32 00:02:03,850 --> 00:02:04,850 and resistance. 33 00:02:05,770 --> 00:02:10,590 The lower boundary of this range is often established by a selling climax 34 00:02:10,590 --> 00:02:14,530 panicked public selling is met by the massive buying power of informed 35 00:02:14,530 --> 00:02:15,530 interests. 36 00:02:16,390 --> 00:02:20,250 The upper boundary is typically set by the subsequent automatic rally. 37 00:02:21,640 --> 00:02:26,160 Within these confines, the composite man works patiently, often for months, to 38 00:02:26,160 --> 00:02:27,160 build his line of stock. 39 00:02:27,520 --> 00:02:32,600 He buys on weakness, on reactions down to the support line, and he allows the 40 00:02:32,600 --> 00:02:36,940 stock to appear dull and lifeless to discourage public interest and to tire 41 00:02:36,940 --> 00:02:38,940 any weak holders who bought prematurely. 42 00:02:39,440 --> 00:02:43,680 The Wyckoff analyst watches this period of preparation for the key signs of 43 00:02:43,680 --> 00:02:44,680 successful accumulation. 44 00:02:45,480 --> 00:02:50,480 The gradual drying up of volume on declines, signaling the exhaustion of 45 00:02:51,290 --> 00:02:56,190 and the tendency for reactions to stop at progressively higher lows, signaling 46 00:02:56,190 --> 00:02:58,170 the increasing eagerness of the buyers. 47 00:02:58,590 --> 00:03:04,010 The campaign often culminates in a spring or shakeout, a final manipulative 48 00:03:04,010 --> 00:03:08,290 drive below the support line to catch stop -loss orders and shake out the last 49 00:03:08,290 --> 00:03:09,290 of the weak hands. 50 00:03:10,230 --> 00:03:14,910 When a stock has undergone this entire logical sequence of events, it is 51 00:03:14,910 --> 00:03:16,650 technically in a very strong position. 52 00:03:18,120 --> 00:03:22,320 The ownership has been transferred from weak, uninformed hands to strong, 53 00:03:22,360 --> 00:03:23,640 patient, informed hands. 54 00:03:24,660 --> 00:03:28,300 The available supply of stock at these low prices has become scarce. 55 00:03:28,980 --> 00:03:33,820 It is from this position of strength after a long cause has been built that 56 00:03:33,820 --> 00:03:37,840 stock is finally ready to produce the effect of a sustained uptrend. 57 00:03:38,220 --> 00:03:40,600 The breakout is the first stage of this effect. 58 00:03:41,040 --> 00:03:44,940 The primary event that signals the end of accumulation and the beginning of the 59 00:03:44,940 --> 00:03:51,190 markup phase is what Wyckoff colorfully termed the jump across the creek in this 60 00:03:51,190 --> 00:03:55,890 analogy the upper resistance line of the trading range is visualized as a creek 61 00:03:55,890 --> 00:04:01,610 which represents a significant barrier of supply for the entirety of the 62 00:04:01,610 --> 00:04:06,370 accumulation phase every attempt to rally has been turned back at the edge 63 00:04:06,370 --> 00:04:11,930 this creek a jump across the creek is therefore a decisive powerful price 64 00:04:11,930 --> 00:04:17,040 movement that carries the stock clear out of and above this longstanding area 65 00:04:17,040 --> 00:04:18,040 resistance. 66 00:04:18,360 --> 00:04:23,080 The first and most critical criterion for verifying this breakout is the 67 00:04:23,080 --> 00:04:24,680 character of the price action itself. 68 00:04:25,500 --> 00:04:28,860 A genuine breakout is not a timid or hesitant event. 69 00:04:29,160 --> 00:04:33,000 It should appear on the chart as a definitive and often sharp advance, 70 00:04:33,320 --> 00:04:36,620 characterized by a marked widening of the price spread. 71 00:04:37,600 --> 00:04:39,680 The stock should cover ground easily. 72 00:04:40,220 --> 00:04:43,440 pushing into new high territory with a sense of energy and purpose. 73 00:04:44,380 --> 00:04:48,660 This is the visual evidence that demand is now fully in control and is meeting 74 00:04:48,660 --> 00:04:49,940 little to no opposition. 75 00:04:50,820 --> 00:04:55,560 A stock that struggles to clear the resistance, inching above it on narrow 76 00:04:55,560 --> 00:04:59,680 bars and then stalling, is not displaying the characteristics of a 77 00:04:59,680 --> 00:05:00,680 breakout. 78 00:05:00,860 --> 00:05:05,740 The composite man, having spent months preparing for this move, will not allow 79 00:05:05,740 --> 00:05:06,740 it to be timid. 80 00:05:07,340 --> 00:05:11,860 His intention is to now attract a following and leave the sellers behind, 81 00:05:11,860 --> 00:05:13,780 the price action must reflect this intent. 82 00:05:14,580 --> 00:05:19,200 While the price action provides the visual cue, the second and most 83 00:05:19,200 --> 00:05:23,580 criterion for verifying the power of a breakout is the volume signature. 84 00:05:24,900 --> 00:05:30,700 According to Wyckoff's third fundamental law, the law of effort versus result, a 85 00:05:30,700 --> 00:05:34,220 significant result, such as a breakout into a new uptrend. 86 00:05:34,810 --> 00:05:38,390 must be accompanied by a significant effort, which is volume. 87 00:05:38,710 --> 00:05:43,730 A true jump across the creek must occur on a distinct and substantial expansion 88 00:05:43,730 --> 00:05:44,730 of trading volume. 89 00:05:45,950 --> 00:05:50,850 This high volume is the irrefutable proof that powerful demand has entered 90 00:05:50,850 --> 00:05:55,050 market. It represents several forces acting in concert. 91 00:05:55,410 --> 00:06:00,210 It is the composite man himself now aggressively bidding for stock to propel 92 00:06:00,210 --> 00:06:01,210 out of the range. 93 00:06:01,840 --> 00:06:05,880 It is the covering of short positions from bearish traders who are now trapped 94 00:06:05,880 --> 00:06:06,880 and forced to buy. 95 00:06:07,900 --> 00:06:12,160 And it is the first wave of buying from other professional traders who recognize 96 00:06:12,160 --> 00:06:14,580 the technical signal and are joining the move. 97 00:06:15,800 --> 00:06:20,100 This confluence of demand creates the high volume that is necessary to absorb 98 00:06:20,100 --> 00:06:24,260 all the residual supply that naturally exists at the old resistance level. 99 00:06:24,880 --> 00:06:27,840 Shares from traders who are happy to get out even. 100 00:06:28,650 --> 00:06:32,650 A breakout that occurs on low or diminishing volume is highly suspect. 101 00:06:33,510 --> 00:06:37,550 It shows a lack of effort and suggests that the demand is not powerful enough 102 00:06:37,550 --> 00:06:38,550 sustain the move. 103 00:06:39,070 --> 00:06:44,450 Such a breakout is often a precursor to a failure, a false move designed to trap 104 00:06:44,450 --> 00:06:45,450 the unwary. 105 00:06:46,410 --> 00:06:50,570 Therefore, the Wyckoff analyst insists on seeing this harmony between price and 106 00:06:50,570 --> 00:06:51,570 volume. 107 00:06:52,090 --> 00:06:56,710 The decisive price advance of the jump across the creek, confirmed by a 108 00:06:56,710 --> 00:07:01,150 expansion in volume, is the first part of the two -fold verification that the 109 00:07:01,150 --> 00:07:02,710 mock -up phase has truly begun. 110 00:07:02,910 --> 00:07:07,510 The second part of this verification process, and one that offers a superb 111 00:07:07,510 --> 00:07:11,890 -risk entry point, is the maneuver Wyckoff called the backup to the edge of 112 00:07:11,890 --> 00:07:12,890 creek. 113 00:07:13,410 --> 00:07:17,690 It is rare for a stock to launch into a sustained, uninterrupted advance 114 00:07:17,690 --> 00:07:19,730 immediately after its initial breakout. 115 00:07:20,970 --> 00:07:25,120 More often than not, After the jump across the creek, there will be a 116 00:07:25,120 --> 00:07:29,520 or a period of sideways consolidation that brings the price back toward the 117 00:07:29,520 --> 00:07:31,120 level of the old resistance line. 118 00:07:32,020 --> 00:07:34,660 This backing up action serves two purposes. 119 00:07:35,480 --> 00:07:37,780 First, it is a final test of the supply. 120 00:07:38,680 --> 00:07:43,280 If the breakout was genuine and the composite man is in control, there 121 00:07:43,280 --> 00:07:45,900 very little stock available for sale on this pullback. 122 00:07:46,380 --> 00:07:50,520 Second, it serves to shake out any short -term traders who bought in the initial 123 00:07:50,520 --> 00:07:51,620 excitement of the breakout. 124 00:07:52,120 --> 00:07:56,140 and are now taking quick profits, the defining characteristic of a successful 125 00:07:56,140 --> 00:07:59,380 back up to the edge of the creek is a dramatic shrinkage of volume. 126 00:08:00,320 --> 00:08:04,520 As the price recedes toward the breakout level, the volume should diminish to a 127 00:08:04,520 --> 00:08:06,760 fraction of what it was during the breakout itself. 128 00:08:07,900 --> 00:08:12,140 This low volume is the final conclusive proof that the sellers are gone. 129 00:08:13,160 --> 00:08:17,900 The former resistance of the trading range now becomes support, and the lack 130 00:08:17,900 --> 00:08:21,120 selling pressure on the test of this new support confirms its validity. 131 00:08:22,410 --> 00:08:27,390 This point, often referred to as the last point of support, is one of the 132 00:08:27,390 --> 00:08:30,230 and most effective places to initiate a long position. 133 00:08:30,910 --> 00:08:35,409 The trade can be entered with a very close stop loss order placed just below 134 00:08:35,409 --> 00:08:37,630 new support line, minimizing the risk. 135 00:08:38,230 --> 00:08:43,330 The combination of a high -volume breakout, the jump across the creek, 136 00:08:43,330 --> 00:08:47,570 by a low -volume pullback to test that breakout level, the back up to the edge 137 00:08:47,570 --> 00:08:52,270 of the creek, constitutes Wyckoff's complete two -stage verification of a 138 00:08:52,270 --> 00:08:53,510 genuine buying opportunity. 139 00:08:54,690 --> 00:08:59,310 The stock has proven its readiness to advance, and the analyst can now take a 140 00:08:59,310 --> 00:09:02,910 position with a high degree of confidence that he is acting in harmony 141 00:09:02,910 --> 00:09:04,290 intentions of smart money. 142 00:09:04,750 --> 00:09:09,230 To fully master the art of verifying a breakout, it is just as crucial to 143 00:09:09,230 --> 00:09:12,910 understand its opposite, the upthrust, or false breakout. 144 00:09:14,110 --> 00:09:18,730 An upthrust is a manipulative maneuver designed to do the exact opposite of a 145 00:09:18,730 --> 00:09:19,730 jump across the creek. 146 00:09:20,780 --> 00:09:24,900 Its purpose is to trap bullish traders and create a fresh supply of stock for 147 00:09:24,900 --> 00:09:25,900 distribution. 148 00:09:26,460 --> 00:09:30,860 An upthrust occurs when the price moves above the resistance of a trading range 149 00:09:30,860 --> 00:09:35,000 but fails to sustain the advance and quickly falls back into the range. 150 00:09:35,300 --> 00:09:41,000 This often happens after a long advance within a distribution trading range, but 151 00:09:41,000 --> 00:09:44,860 it can also occur as a deceptive move out of what appears to be an 152 00:09:44,860 --> 00:09:50,220 range. Wyckoff provided clear criteria to distinguish an upthrust from a 153 00:09:50,220 --> 00:09:51,220 breakout. 154 00:09:51,880 --> 00:09:54,820 The most telling sign is often found in the volume. 155 00:09:55,940 --> 00:09:58,200 An upthrust can occur in two ways. 156 00:09:58,660 --> 00:10:03,600 First, the price may push above the resistance line on conspicuously low 157 00:10:04,540 --> 00:10:07,080 This demonstrates a lack of genuine demand. 158 00:10:07,860 --> 00:10:10,020 The move has no power behind it. 159 00:10:10,260 --> 00:10:12,020 It is an effort without force. 160 00:10:12,730 --> 00:10:16,410 and it is doomed to fail as soon as any significant supply appears. 161 00:10:17,590 --> 00:10:22,150 Second, and more deceptively, an upthrust can occur on a sudden burst of 162 00:10:22,150 --> 00:10:27,050 high climactic volume, but the price makes very little upward progress and 163 00:10:27,050 --> 00:10:28,050 stalls. 164 00:10:28,170 --> 00:10:32,210 This is a classic example of the law of effort versus result showing a 165 00:10:32,210 --> 00:10:33,210 divergence. 166 00:10:33,390 --> 00:10:37,270 The great effort, which is the high volume, is failing to produce a 167 00:10:37,270 --> 00:10:40,610 corresponding result, which would be a sustained price advance. 168 00:10:41,610 --> 00:10:45,750 This indicates that the apparent breakout is being met with a massive 169 00:10:45,750 --> 00:10:50,330 selling or distribution from the composite man, who is using the public's 170 00:10:50,330 --> 00:10:53,930 excitement about the breakout to unload his shares at the highest possible 171 00:10:53,930 --> 00:10:59,250 price. Following either type of upthrust, the price will fail to hold 172 00:10:59,250 --> 00:11:03,430 and will quickly fall back below the resistance level and into the old 173 00:11:03,430 --> 00:11:04,430 range. 174 00:11:04,550 --> 00:11:08,830 This failure to hold the breakout is the definitive proof that it was a false 175 00:11:08,830 --> 00:11:09,830 move. 176 00:11:10,060 --> 00:11:14,780 For the Wyckoff analyst, identifying an upthrust is not only a signal to avoid 177 00:11:14,780 --> 00:11:19,220 taking a long position but is often a powerful signal to initiate a short 178 00:11:19,380 --> 00:11:23,520 as it indicates that supply is in control and a markdown may be imminent. 179 00:11:23,960 --> 00:11:28,480 Thus, by understanding the distinct characteristics of both the genuine jump 180 00:11:28,480 --> 00:11:32,480 across the creek and the manipulative upthrust, the trader can effectively 181 00:11:32,480 --> 00:11:36,300 verify the power, or lack thereof, behind any breakout. 182 00:11:36,940 --> 00:11:40,960 Having examined the foundational evidence that verifies the power behind 183 00:11:40,960 --> 00:11:44,120 breakout, the task of the Wyckoff analyst shifts. 184 00:11:44,860 --> 00:11:49,680 The initial phase of detection, akin to the work of a detective piecing together 185 00:11:49,680 --> 00:11:52,400 clues of a hidden campaign, is now complete. 186 00:11:53,580 --> 00:11:57,580 With the stock having successfully jumped the creek and confirmed its 187 00:11:57,860 --> 00:12:00,980 the trader's role evolves into that of a campaign manager. 188 00:12:02,120 --> 00:12:06,240 The new objective is to skillfully navigate the developing uptrend or mark 189 00:12:06,240 --> 00:12:10,840 phase, remaining in harmony with the intentions of the composite man for as 190 00:12:10,840 --> 00:12:13,880 as the path of least resistance remains definitively upward. 191 00:12:14,920 --> 00:12:18,760 This requires a different, though equally critical, set of analytical 192 00:12:19,060 --> 00:12:23,380 One must learn to distinguish between a healthy, normal reaction and the first 193 00:12:23,380 --> 00:12:25,320 subtle signs of weakness or distribution. 194 00:12:25,640 --> 00:12:28,080 One must understand how to manage risk. 195 00:12:28,360 --> 00:12:32,220 protect accumulating profits, and recognize the key points within the 196 00:12:32,220 --> 00:12:34,140 offer opportunities to increase a position. 197 00:12:34,600 --> 00:12:39,140 This is the art of following smart money, a discipline of patience, 198 00:12:39,460 --> 00:12:42,620 and adherence to the logical principles that govern a stock's advance. 199 00:12:43,080 --> 00:12:46,980 The first step in following the trend is to understand the anatomy of a healthy 200 00:12:46,980 --> 00:12:47,980 markup phase. 201 00:12:48,800 --> 00:12:53,000 According to the Wyckoff method, a true uptrend is defined by a persistent and 202 00:12:53,000 --> 00:12:56,980 recognizable pattern, a series of higher highs and higher lows. 203 00:12:58,090 --> 00:13:01,970 This stair -step progression is the visual evidence that demand is in 204 00:13:01,970 --> 00:13:07,430 control Each upward thrust or swing should push the price to a new high 205 00:13:07,430 --> 00:13:13,710 demonstrating the buyers power Each subsequent pullback or reaction should 206 00:13:13,710 --> 00:13:17,970 at a higher price level than the one that preceded it Demonstrating the 207 00:13:17,970 --> 00:13:23,030 eagerness and the absence of significant selling pressure This simple but 208 00:13:23,030 --> 00:13:25,370 powerful structure is the backbone of the trend 209 00:13:26,800 --> 00:13:31,260 As long as this pattern remains intact, the presumption is that the uptrend will 210 00:13:31,260 --> 00:13:32,260 continue. 211 00:13:32,880 --> 00:13:37,560 The Wyckoff analyst's job is to continuously monitor the health of this 212 00:13:37,560 --> 00:13:40,840 applying the law of effort versus result to each of these swings. 213 00:13:41,800 --> 00:13:45,920 The volume signature during the markup phase is of paramount importance. 214 00:13:46,780 --> 00:13:52,060 On the advances, as the price moves to new highs, volume should ideally expand. 215 00:13:53,260 --> 00:13:57,080 This shows that the effort represented by the volume is in harmony with the 216 00:13:57,080 --> 00:13:58,880 result, which is the price advance. 217 00:13:59,540 --> 00:14:03,760 It indicates that demand is robust and is easily overcoming the light profit 218 00:14:03,760 --> 00:14:06,520 -taking that naturally occurs as the stock moves higher. 219 00:14:07,660 --> 00:14:11,640 Conversely, the most critical characteristic of a healthy uptrend is 220 00:14:11,640 --> 00:14:12,880 of the volume on reactions. 221 00:14:13,680 --> 00:14:18,100 On each pullback or correction, the volume of trading must noticeably 222 00:14:19,690 --> 00:14:23,870 This is one of the most reliable signs that a trend remains in a strong 223 00:14:23,870 --> 00:14:24,870 technical position. 224 00:14:25,930 --> 00:14:30,170 The diminished volume proves that the selling is not aggressive or urgent. 225 00:14:30,650 --> 00:14:33,950 It is not distribution from large informed interests. 226 00:14:34,750 --> 00:14:39,130 Instead, it represents passive light profit -taking from short -term traders 227 00:14:39,130 --> 00:14:41,050 weak hands who are easily shaken out. 228 00:14:41,610 --> 00:14:45,330 The lack of significant selling pressure allows the composite man and other 229 00:14:45,330 --> 00:14:49,130 strongholders to easily absorb these small offerings without disturbing the 230 00:14:49,130 --> 00:14:53,310 price structure, often using these reactions to add to their own positions. 231 00:14:54,250 --> 00:14:58,870 If a reaction occurs on high or expanding volume, it is a significant 232 00:14:58,870 --> 00:14:59,870 sign. 233 00:14:59,930 --> 00:15:04,450 It suggests that supply is coming into the market in a volume that is 234 00:15:04,450 --> 00:15:06,430 to the demand seen on the rallies. 235 00:15:07,470 --> 00:15:10,290 This divergence between effort and result 236 00:15:11,020 --> 00:15:15,740 Heavy selling pressure that halts or reverses the advance indicates that the 237 00:15:15,740 --> 00:15:17,160 trend may be in danger. 238 00:15:18,140 --> 00:15:23,020 Therefore, the Wyckoff analyst pays meticulous attention to this interplay, 239 00:15:23,220 --> 00:15:28,220 expanding volume on the advances and contracting volume on the reactions. 240 00:15:29,420 --> 00:15:33,940 This continuous confirmation of demand's dominance provides the confidence 241 00:15:33,940 --> 00:15:37,480 needed to hold a position and ride the trend for a substantial move. 242 00:15:38,300 --> 00:15:42,730 Within a major uptrend, it is rare for a stock to advance in a single 243 00:15:42,730 --> 00:15:48,550 uninterrupted line the markup phase is typically punctuated by periods of 244 00:15:48,550 --> 00:15:54,030 consolidation or sideways movement wyckoff referred to these formations as 245 00:15:54,030 --> 00:16:00,010 reaccumulation zones or more colloquially as stepping stones these 246 00:16:00,010 --> 00:16:04,290 essentially smaller scale trading ranges that form within an established uptrend 247 00:16:05,520 --> 00:16:09,320 After a stock has made a significant advance, it will often pause and move 248 00:16:09,320 --> 00:16:10,820 sideways for a period of weeks. 249 00:16:11,380 --> 00:16:15,980 To the untrained eye, this pause may look like a top, causing fear and 250 00:16:15,980 --> 00:16:16,980 uncertainty. 251 00:16:17,120 --> 00:16:21,400 However, to the Wyckoff analyst, these stepping stones are highly bullish 252 00:16:21,400 --> 00:16:24,660 formations and represent a crucial part of the markup process. 253 00:16:25,300 --> 00:16:29,680 Their function is to allow the stock to rest and digest its previous gains. 254 00:16:31,100 --> 00:16:34,700 During these periods, the composite man is achieving several objectives. 255 00:16:35,530 --> 00:16:39,750 First, he is absorbing the stock being sold by early buyers who are content to 256 00:16:39,750 --> 00:16:40,750 take their profits. 257 00:16:41,090 --> 00:16:45,070 Second, he is shaking out nervous or impatient traders who become frustrated 258 00:16:45,070 --> 00:16:47,210 with the lack of immediate upward progress. 259 00:16:47,930 --> 00:16:51,910 By absorbing this profit -taking and cleaning out the weak hands, he 260 00:16:51,910 --> 00:16:55,650 consolidates his control over the stock and prepares it for the next leg of its 261 00:16:55,650 --> 00:16:56,650 advance. 262 00:16:56,830 --> 00:17:01,250 These reaccumulation zones are to be analyzed in exactly the same way as a 263 00:17:01,250 --> 00:17:04,369 primary accumulation base, only on a smaller scale. 264 00:17:05,200 --> 00:17:09,119 The Wyckoff student looks for the same signs of strength within this smaller 265 00:17:09,119 --> 00:17:10,119 trading range. 266 00:17:10,660 --> 00:17:14,900 He watches for volume to dry up on the reactions to the support of the stepping 267 00:17:14,900 --> 00:17:19,339 stone. He looks for a potential spring or shakeout within the formation. 268 00:17:20,240 --> 00:17:24,700 And he waits for a smaller -scale jump across the creek as the price breaks out 269 00:17:24,700 --> 00:17:27,819 of the top of the reaccumulation range on expanding volume. 270 00:17:28,319 --> 00:17:33,280 These formations are incredibly constructive because they not only 271 00:17:33,280 --> 00:17:37,720 the uptrend is still healthy, but they also offer excellent low -risk 272 00:17:37,720 --> 00:17:42,680 opportunities to add to an existing position, a practice known as 273 00:17:43,820 --> 00:17:49,440 Each successful stepping stone serves as a new, higher level of support and acts 274 00:17:49,440 --> 00:17:53,860 as a launch pad for the next phase of the advance, reinforcing the overall 275 00:17:53,860 --> 00:17:55,800 strength and integrity of the uptrend. 276 00:17:56,080 --> 00:18:01,060 To visualize and manage the uptrend, Wyckoff employed the practical tool of 277 00:18:01,060 --> 00:18:02,060 trend line. 278 00:18:02,220 --> 00:18:06,340 A basic uptrend line is drawn by connecting two or more successive 279 00:18:06,340 --> 00:18:07,340 lows. 280 00:18:07,680 --> 00:18:12,240 This line is not an infallible signal, but rather a tool to help the analyst 281 00:18:12,240 --> 00:18:14,660 visualize the stride or angle of the advance. 282 00:18:15,880 --> 00:18:20,320 As long as the price remains above this line, the trend is considered intact. 283 00:18:21,360 --> 00:18:26,520 A break of the trend line is not an automatic sell signal, but it is a 284 00:18:26,520 --> 00:18:28,880 warning that the character of the market is changing. 285 00:18:30,280 --> 00:18:34,140 It signifies that the advance has at least temporarily lost its momentum. 286 00:18:35,400 --> 00:18:39,120 The meaning of this change must then be determined by other evidence. 287 00:18:40,280 --> 00:18:44,320 A broken trend line could mean that the stock is simply entering a new 288 00:18:44,320 --> 00:18:49,220 reaccumulation phase or stepping stone, after which the advance may resume, 289 00:18:49,460 --> 00:18:52,200 perhaps at a different, more sustainable angle. 290 00:18:52,680 --> 00:18:56,540 Or it could be the first sign that supply is beginning to overcome demand. 291 00:18:57,150 --> 00:19:00,970 potentially signaling the beginning of a larger topping formation or 292 00:19:00,970 --> 00:19:01,970 distribution. 293 00:19:02,430 --> 00:19:06,350 Wyckoff cautioned against using trend lines in a purely mechanical way. 294 00:19:07,010 --> 00:19:11,270 Their value lies in providing hints and directing the analyst's attention to 295 00:19:11,270 --> 00:19:14,710 critical points where the market's behavior must be weighed with extra 296 00:19:15,410 --> 00:19:19,670 The practical management of a position during the markup phase requires a 297 00:19:19,670 --> 00:19:23,870 systematic method for protecting profits while still giving the stockroom to 298 00:19:23,870 --> 00:19:24,870 move. 299 00:19:25,550 --> 00:19:29,070 The most effective tool for this is the trailing stop -loss order. 300 00:19:30,710 --> 00:19:34,650 Wyckoff's logic for managing a trade was to let profits run but never to give 301 00:19:34,650 --> 00:19:36,390 back a substantial portion of them. 302 00:19:37,470 --> 00:19:40,710 The trailing stop is the mechanism that achieves this balance. 303 00:19:42,070 --> 00:19:43,510 The method is as follows. 304 00:19:43,910 --> 00:19:47,670 After the stock has made a new high and then completes a normal, healthy 305 00:19:47,670 --> 00:19:52,150 reaction on diminished volume, the stop -loss order should be moved up to a 306 00:19:52,150 --> 00:19:54,150 point just below the low of that reaction. 307 00:19:55,110 --> 00:19:57,830 This process is repeated as the trend progresses. 308 00:19:58,690 --> 00:20:02,890 Each time the stock moves to a new high and successfully completes a subsequent 309 00:20:02,890 --> 00:20:07,950 pullback, the stop is trailed up behind it, locking in a greater portion of the 310 00:20:07,950 --> 00:20:08,950 paper profit. 311 00:20:09,370 --> 00:20:11,770 This technique is brilliant in its simplicity. 312 00:20:12,170 --> 00:20:16,010 It prevents the trader from being shaken out by the normal, healthy reactions 313 00:20:16,010 --> 00:20:18,790 that are a necessary part of any sustained advance. 314 00:20:19,550 --> 00:20:23,750 At the same time, it ensures that the trade will be automatically closed if 315 00:20:23,750 --> 00:20:25,270 character of the trend changes. 316 00:20:26,150 --> 00:20:31,430 For the uptrend to be broken, the stock must by definition violate the previous 317 00:20:31,430 --> 00:20:32,430 reaction low. 318 00:20:33,030 --> 00:20:37,610 By placing the stop there, the trader is forcing the market to prove that the 319 00:20:37,610 --> 00:20:38,610 trend is over. 320 00:20:39,310 --> 00:20:43,650 This method removes the emotional element of deciding when to take a 321 00:20:44,300 --> 00:20:48,700 replacing it with a logical, systematic process that protects capital and 322 00:20:48,700 --> 00:20:51,220 maximizes gains during a sustained move. 323 00:20:52,080 --> 00:20:56,620 For those who wish to truly master the lessons discussed here, it is essential 324 00:20:56,620 --> 00:20:58,000 to study them from the source. 325 00:20:59,140 --> 00:21:04,000 Please take note of a unique new edition of Richard Wyckoff's masterpiece, How I 326 00:21:04,000 --> 00:21:07,620 Trade and Invest in Stocks and Bonds, by Max Davidson. 327 00:21:08,860 --> 00:21:12,000 It has been meticulously adapted for the modern trader. 328 00:21:12,570 --> 00:21:16,710 complete with explanations that make Wyckoff's timeless wisdom more 329 00:21:16,710 --> 00:21:17,710 than ever. 330 00:21:18,530 --> 00:21:23,330 For anyone who wants to truly absorb the lessons we are discussing, this adapted 331 00:21:23,330 --> 00:21:25,870 edition is an indispensable part of your library. 332 00:21:26,770 --> 00:21:30,150 The link to this book is located in the description of this video. 333 00:21:31,090 --> 00:21:35,370 In conclusion, verifying a breakout and successfully following the smart money 334 00:21:35,370 --> 00:21:37,550 through the markup phase is a dynamic process. 335 00:21:37,910 --> 00:21:40,810 It is not a one -time decision made at the point of entry. 336 00:21:41,310 --> 00:21:46,970 but an ongoing campaign of analysis and prudent management it begins with the 337 00:21:46,970 --> 00:21:51,450 strict verification of the breakout ensuring that the jump across the creek 338 00:21:51,450 --> 00:21:56,210 supported by the irrefutable evidence of wide price spreads and expanding volume 339 00:21:56,210 --> 00:22:01,850 it continues with the skill of navigating the subsequent uptrend 340 00:22:01,850 --> 00:22:06,730 interpreting reactions by their volume signatures identifying reaccumulation 341 00:22:06,730 --> 00:22:07,910 zones as opportunities 342 00:22:08,700 --> 00:22:11,580 and using a logical trailing stop to protect profits. 343 00:22:12,040 --> 00:22:16,080 The Wyckoff analyst remains with the trend as long as the evidence of healthy 344 00:22:16,080 --> 00:22:21,740 demand persists, strong volume on rallies and light volume on reactions, 345 00:22:21,740 --> 00:22:25,940 long as the stair -step pattern of higher highs and higher lows remains 346 00:22:26,980 --> 00:22:31,060 His job is to stay in harmony with the composite man until the first signs of 347 00:22:31,060 --> 00:22:35,280 large -scale distribution begin to appear, a topic for a future discussion. 348 00:22:36,400 --> 00:22:40,800 This entire process transforms trading from an emotional gamble into a 349 00:22:40,800 --> 00:22:42,380 disciplined scientific business. 32935

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