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So in order to get more winning trades
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overall we're going to want to utilize
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context building and using overlapping
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confluences to help build higher
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probability trades. Now this is the part
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that will trip up a lot of retail traders
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is that we actually don't use any form of
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candlestick or price action based
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confirmations which is totally different
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to what most retail traders expect. Thanks
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to YouTube and social media trading most
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expect that we would use some sort of
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confirmation like this but our
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confirmation for trades is different. It's
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based purely on volume analysis and
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building stories around price and volume.
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So the most important skill you need to
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find higher probability trades is
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developing your skills in building stories
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around price using volume analysis. Now a
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few things to note any single level alone
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for example today's developing value area
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high yesterday's value area high
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yesterday's point of control over all
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these levels can and often will produce a
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reaction on their own. However what we're
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wanting to do is find multiple confluences
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and stack these different independent
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reference points that all align in the
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same zone because those multiple
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overlapping references and confluences
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mean there's more market interest, more
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logical reason behind our trade setup and
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therefore a higher probability of a
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favorable reaction. So our confirmation is
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simply looking for these trades that have
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multiple confluences aligned and then
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capitalizing on those price points. So
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there are many different confluences we
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can use to build context and find these
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higher probability trades. But the main
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examples of what you want to be looking
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for for adding confluences and finding
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that confirmation are things like
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overlapping volume profile levels. That
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could be your VAH, POC, VAL of any of the
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profiles. Overnight, previous day,
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developing or weekly. If any of these
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levels overlap that is a confluence. The
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next one is value levels which are
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reinforced by high volume nodes. So when
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the market is actively trading and
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developing volume around a particular
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value level and we get our breakaway from
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that value level, that level then becomes
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reinforced by the high volume node
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confirming acceptance at that level which
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we'll get into in more depth shortly. And
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the last one is reading the developing
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auction in relation to previous profiles
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to get an idea of market sentiment. So the
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more confluences you have together, the
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better. And we have a bit of a grading
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system here as to how we approach
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different trades and how we rank our trade
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setups. So our trade setups are ranked
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based on how many confluences we have in
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our favor. An A-rated trade would be any
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trade setup that has three or more
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confluences in which case we could go in
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with 100% of our predetermined position
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size and risk. A B-rated trade is anything
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that has two confluences in which case
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we'd go in with half of our typical
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position size. And then a C-rated trade
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would be a single confluence. These are
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not the best trades. You're going to be
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avoiding C-rated trades in general. But
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worst case, if you are taking C-rated
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trades, a C-rated trade would be something
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like trading the value area high of the
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previous day with no other confluence,
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just shorting the value high for no
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reason. That would be a C-rated trade, a
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single confluence, in which case you'd
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want to use 25% of your position size or
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less. And these would be quick trades,
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quick scalps, in and out only. As we
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mentioned, value levels alone are most
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likely going to give you some sort of
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reaction. But without extra confluences,
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it is little more than a slightly weighted
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coin flip. Therefore, you want to be
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taking less of these trades, or if you do
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take these trades, size way down. The idea
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is to take as many A-rated trades as
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possible, which requires building your
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patience. Now, you will find an A-rated
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trade quite frequently throughout the day.
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And you'll find that as you trade volume
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profile, you'll see that you don't really
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have no trade days. There's almost always
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some sort of setup during your trade
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session all throughout the day. So we're
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not sitting around waiting for the perfect
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trade setup all the time. You'll find
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these A and B-rated trades happening quite
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frequently throughout the day. But the
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main thing is to develop patience and wait
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for at least two confluences, preferably
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three more to align before you take a
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trade. So let's cover these confluences
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one by one now, so you can see what to
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look for to add to those basic trade
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setups that we discussed initially. See
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how you can add extra confluence to those
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setups to be able to feel confident in
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taking trades that are more likely to have
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a positive outcome. So we'll start firstly
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with overlapping confluences. So go ahead
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and complete this lesson and move on to
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the next one.
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