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So a fade from the value area high or
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value area low is a mean reversion type of
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play that we look for. So according to the
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stats, 70% of the time the markets are in
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a range bound condition, meaning this is
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the most likely type of setup you will
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come across on a day to day basis. So if
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we're looking at the value high and value
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low, the value area high is the upper
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boundary of the value area, with the value
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area low being the lower boundary of the
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value area. And a fade is simply trading
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against the direction of a breakout
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attempt at these levels, expecting price
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to return back into value or revert back
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to the mean. So if we look on the chart on
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the right here, this is an example of a
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simple value area high fade. You can see
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that both times here on the example on the
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right that price attempted to trade
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outside of the value area high. It was
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rejected and came back into the value area
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the second time traveling back closer
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towards the point of control. That is a
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simple example of a fade off the value
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area high. And then here we have a nice
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example of price coming down. Here's your
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930 New York open. You can see that price
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actually came off the value area high here
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as well on that first attempt. Came down.
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But then here off the value area low,
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dipped below value area low, being quickly
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bought up back towards the point of
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control and then back into the highs. That
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is our example of a value area low fade.
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Now why does this work? This works for a
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few reasons. Number one, auction market
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theory. The value area highs and the value
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area lows are the edges of where the
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majority of trading has occurred, aka fair
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value. So when price pokes outside these
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areas, what the market is doing is testing
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higher or lower to see if it can attract
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new business, aka buyers on the upside and
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sellers on the downside. And if that test
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fails, so no new buyers above value high
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or no new sellers below value low, then
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the market naturally will return to value
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or to the opposite end of the spectrum.
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The second reason it works is because of
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lack of volume or lack of participants. So
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outside the value area high or value low,
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you'll often enter low volume areas where
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participation is extremely thin. And thin
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volume means fewer traders defending that
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area. Therefore, price moves back into the
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high volume zone where most trade
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occurred. Because again, just like in an
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auction, if the price reaches a point
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where neither side is willing to
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participate much, then prices will
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naturally return back to where
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participation was most popular. The third
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reason is mean reversion tendencies. In
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balanced markets, price tends to oscillate
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around point of control rather than
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sustain directional movement. Again, 70%
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of the time, the markets are in a range
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-bound type of condition. So 70% of the
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time, the market will prefer to stay
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within a value area rather than seeking
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new value above or below value area highs
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and lows. So a value area high and value
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area low fade capitalizes on this natural
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rotation, rotating back to the mean of the
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auction or back into fair value, aka point
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of control. And lastly, order flow
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psychology. Breakouts naturally require
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fuel or new buyers above value highs, new
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sellers below value lows in order for
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price to continue in that direction. If
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that fuel doesn't appear quickly, the
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traders who initiated the breakout will
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start to exit their positions seeing that
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there is no one else there willing to
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support the trade idea long or short for a
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breakout. So they will exit their
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positions naturally creating pressure back
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towards value. So that's an order flow
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concept where if you think about price and
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the way price moves, in order for price to
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move up, you need more buyers. So if you
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reach premium levels at value area highs
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and there are no buyers to continue to
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push price higher, naturally it's going to
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fall back into value and vice versa. So
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this is the first type of trade setup that
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we start to look for. And this is the most
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common one that you'll take even when you
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build up with multiple profiles, looking
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for added confluences. Trading the value
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highs and value lows will be the most
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common trade setup that you will come
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across in your time as a volume profile
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trader. So understanding why this works
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and why this happens is important to know
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so that you know you're not just trading
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off some random theory, off some
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subjective interpretation of price, but
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you're trading based on order flow and the
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natural laws of how an auction works. So
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we'll get into how to add more context
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around this trade setup in the next
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module. But for now, understand what's
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happening when price approaches value
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highs and value lows and understand what
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to anticipate based on where price is,
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either value low or value high. And the
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first thing to do is to anticipate a fade
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from these levels. So let's move into the
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next trade variation, which is a value
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area high, value area low breakaway, which
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is the opposite of a fade. If you leave
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the brand,讚, the latest on the dates is
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interesting If you have any case it's just
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can't stand on the Anybody can't match the
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Thank you.
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