All language subtitles for 4. Reversal principle

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These are the user uploaded subtitles that are being translated: 1 00:00:00,240 --> 00:00:03,860 Let's move on to the third trading principle, the reversal principle. 2 00:00:04,280 --> 00:00:08,100 We will apply this principle in markets that are initially unbalanced in one 3 00:00:08,100 --> 00:00:12,100 direction, but eventually refuse to move further in that direction and generate 4 00:00:12,100 --> 00:00:14,060 a sharp reversal in the opposite direction. 5 00:00:14,360 --> 00:00:18,860 That is, in environments where most participants at the aggregate level 6 00:00:18,860 --> 00:00:20,800 in their valuation of the asset price. 7 00:00:21,500 --> 00:00:25,640 What the reversal principle tells us is that if the price attempts to enter a 8 00:00:25,640 --> 00:00:30,120 value area and succeeds, it will most likely visit the opposite end of that 9 00:00:30,120 --> 00:00:31,120 value area. 10 00:00:31,140 --> 00:00:35,580 The market has refused to trade at those price levels, so it returns to the 11 00:00:35,580 --> 00:00:36,580 previous value area. 12 00:00:36,860 --> 00:00:41,500 Again, this principle is an adaptation of a well -known market profile trade, 13 00:00:41,780 --> 00:00:47,020 the 80 % rule, which suggests that when price breaks out of a value area, there 14 00:00:47,020 --> 00:00:51,040 is an 80 % probability that it will go all the way through the area to the 15 00:00:51,040 --> 00:00:52,040 opposite end. 16 00:00:52,540 --> 00:00:56,660 Trading with the reverse principle is to wait for the test inside the value 17 00:00:56,660 --> 00:01:00,550 area, to look for the impulsive move to the opposite end of the value area. 18 00:01:00,750 --> 00:01:05,310 In other words, if the price is above a value area and manages to break the 19 00:01:05,310 --> 00:01:10,090 value area high and enter this value area, the main scenario would be to wait 20 00:01:10,090 --> 00:01:15,210 for an inside test of this value area high to look for a move first towards 21 00:01:15,210 --> 00:01:19,050 VPOC and eventually towards the value area low of the profile. 22 00:01:19,710 --> 00:01:24,430 As with the range principle, there is a problem that the VPOC could act as a 23 00:01:24,430 --> 00:01:26,830 support -resistance level that blocks the price. 24 00:01:27,370 --> 00:01:31,370 Therefore, we should always take this level into account when managing the 25 00:01:31,370 --> 00:01:32,370 position. 26 00:01:32,530 --> 00:01:35,230 We start with the first example of session profiles. 27 00:01:35,870 --> 00:01:40,870 As we can see, the market opens below the previous session's value area, so it 28 00:01:40,870 --> 00:01:42,330 initially shows a bearish imbalance. 29 00:01:42,830 --> 00:01:47,930 In this price position, as the context is bearish, we should prefer to look for 30 00:01:47,930 --> 00:01:48,930 short opportunities. 31 00:01:49,230 --> 00:01:53,370 but the market does not react at the limit of the value area and what it does 32 00:01:53,370 --> 00:01:54,370 to recover it easily. 33 00:01:54,950 --> 00:01:59,010 After regaining the value area, we were able to apply this reversal principle, 34 00:01:59,210 --> 00:02:03,190 which tells us that although the market was initially unbalanced to one side, 35 00:02:03,570 --> 00:02:08,030 this imbalance has failed and a sufficiently significant rotation has 36 00:02:08,030 --> 00:02:10,810 generated to bring the price back into the value area. 37 00:02:11,510 --> 00:02:16,030 Therefore, the trading scenario to consider is to look for a test of the 38 00:02:16,030 --> 00:02:20,750 area low and wait for the price to develop a bullish rotation that gives us 39 00:02:20,750 --> 00:02:23,070 signal to enter the market, as in this example. 40 00:02:23,730 --> 00:02:29,030 In addition, we will apply the 80 % rule, which tells us that there is an 80 41 00:02:29,030 --> 00:02:33,770 probability that the opposite end of the value area, in this case the value area 42 00:02:33,770 --> 00:02:38,070 high of the previous session's profile, will also be reached, as it is. 43 00:02:38,850 --> 00:02:41,170 Here is another example of a bearish reversal. 44 00:02:41,590 --> 00:02:45,550 The price opens above the value area high of the previous session's profile. 45 00:02:46,080 --> 00:02:47,900 approaches it, and easily breaks it. 46 00:02:48,300 --> 00:02:52,540 On reentry, we trigger the reversal scenario and the price develops a test 47 00:02:52,540 --> 00:02:57,360 within the value area high, giving rise to a new bearish impulse that easily 48 00:02:57,360 --> 00:02:59,580 reaches the opposite end of the value area. 49 00:03:00,280 --> 00:03:03,040 This reversal principle is quite simple to understand. 50 00:03:03,280 --> 00:03:07,700 If the market manages to reenter a value area, there is a high probability that 51 00:03:07,700 --> 00:03:09,840 it will visit the opposite end of this profile. 52 00:03:10,800 --> 00:03:12,280 Here are two more examples. 53 00:03:12,940 --> 00:03:17,480 a bullish reversal to the left and a bearish reversal to the right. The 54 00:03:17,480 --> 00:03:22,660 are always the same, a re -entry into the value area, a test of the inside and 55 00:03:22,660 --> 00:03:24,680 an impulsive move to the opposite extreme. 56 00:03:25,540 --> 00:03:29,600 We will now look at the application of the reversal principle to multi -session 57 00:03:29,600 --> 00:03:33,340 ranges. These are the basic analysis structures of the Wyckoff traders. 58 00:03:33,840 --> 00:03:37,840 The principle is the same, the only difference being that instead of working 59 00:03:37,840 --> 00:03:41,660 with session profiles, we are working with profiles of complete structures, 60 00:03:41,820 --> 00:03:43,740 accumulation, and distribution ranges. 61 00:03:44,260 --> 00:03:48,580 For these examples, we will use structures that have already been 62 00:03:48,580 --> 00:03:51,340 the same principles could be applied within the same structure. 63 00:03:51,920 --> 00:03:57,360 In this example, we observe two lateralizations, an accumulation on the 64 00:03:57,360 --> 00:03:58,580 a distribution on the right. 65 00:03:59,500 --> 00:04:03,980 After confirming the distribution, the price leaves this area and heads towards 66 00:04:03,980 --> 00:04:06,380 the lower area, towards the previous accumulation. 67 00:04:07,560 --> 00:04:11,580 At this point, our context should be to look for the application of the 68 00:04:11,580 --> 00:04:15,760 continuation principle, by which we encourage the market to develop a 69 00:04:15,760 --> 00:04:20,540 test on the value area high of the profile to expect bullish continuations 70 00:04:20,540 --> 00:04:21,459 it happens. 71 00:04:21,459 --> 00:04:25,500 The market reacts in this zone and offers us the opportunity to enter. 72 00:04:26,140 --> 00:04:29,860 Profit taking should be established at the high volume node of the upper 73 00:04:29,860 --> 00:04:30,860 structure. 74 00:04:31,140 --> 00:04:35,960 As we can see, the price also reaches this area before generating a new 75 00:04:35,960 --> 00:04:36,960 rotation. 76 00:04:37,090 --> 00:04:40,570 Looking at this point where we have taken profits from trading the lower 77 00:04:40,570 --> 00:04:44,950 structure, we are also in a position to apply the continuation principle to the 78 00:04:44,950 --> 00:04:45,950 upper structure. 79 00:04:46,130 --> 00:04:51,390 This is a test of the value area low and the VPOC area of the volume profile of 80 00:04:51,390 --> 00:04:54,570 this upper structure, so a short entry could be considered. 81 00:04:55,390 --> 00:05:00,070 The entry is good and the market falls sharply, easily reaching the volume 82 00:05:00,070 --> 00:05:01,570 profile of the lower structure. 83 00:05:02,220 --> 00:05:06,360 After another extreme bullish reaction, it finally manages to re -enter the 84 00:05:06,360 --> 00:05:11,200 value area, at which point the reversal principle is triggered. From there, the 85 00:05:11,200 --> 00:05:15,540 price develops an inside test on the value area high of the profile and the 86 00:05:15,540 --> 00:05:18,600 market plummets through the entire value area and beyond. 87 00:05:19,200 --> 00:05:23,420 This is a very complete example where we have seen the application of several 88 00:05:23,420 --> 00:05:26,060 trading principles and also in different structures. 89 00:05:26,800 --> 00:05:29,400 Here is another example of the same causistry. 90 00:05:29,980 --> 00:05:34,260 The upper structure generates a bearish move that pushes the price back into the 91 00:05:34,260 --> 00:05:35,680 value area of the lower structure. 92 00:05:36,260 --> 00:05:40,600 This is a test within the value area high, and then the market travels 93 00:05:40,600 --> 00:05:44,740 the entire value area until it reaches the value area low of the profile. 94 00:05:45,660 --> 00:05:50,540 Above the same area, it generates a new rejection and develops a strong upward 95 00:05:50,540 --> 00:05:54,340 movement that begins the price back into the value area of the upper structure. 96 00:05:54,720 --> 00:05:59,320 It develops a test within the value area low and continues with the bullish 97 00:05:59,320 --> 00:06:02,640 imbalance until it reaches the value area high of this profile. 98 00:06:03,500 --> 00:06:07,760 An interesting detail of this example is the advantage of using stop orders over 99 00:06:07,760 --> 00:06:08,820 other types of orders. 100 00:06:09,240 --> 00:06:13,300 When the price reaches the value area high of the lower profile, we should 101 00:06:13,300 --> 00:06:17,300 prefer to use the continuation principle, at least in the first 102 00:06:17,760 --> 00:06:22,160 And as we can see, the market left two good bullish candlesticks at this point, 103 00:06:22,260 --> 00:06:24,740 which could have been used as an entry signal. 104 00:06:25,520 --> 00:06:29,560 If we had tried to enter the market with stop orders placed just above these 105 00:06:29,560 --> 00:06:33,520 candlesticks, the entries would never have occurred because the market turned 106 00:06:33,520 --> 00:06:37,300 sharply lower after developing these signals leaving two more bearish 107 00:06:37,300 --> 00:06:42,200 candlesticks. This is why this type of entry is useful, because we need to 108 00:06:42,200 --> 00:06:45,980 confirm that there is still continuity in the imbalance that is being generated 109 00:06:45,980 --> 00:06:46,980 in the shorter term. 110 00:06:47,820 --> 00:06:52,580 After these two unsuccessful attempts, the market finally enters the value area 111 00:06:52,580 --> 00:06:57,220 again and generates an inside test that gives rise to the bearish movement. 112 00:06:58,040 --> 00:07:02,040 In this other situation, however, the market would have triggered the entry, 113 00:07:02,200 --> 00:07:03,200 resulting in a loss. 114 00:07:03,640 --> 00:07:07,800 The price is in the continuation trading zone and forms this strong bearish 115 00:07:07,800 --> 00:07:10,820 candlestick, which could have been used to enter the market short. 116 00:07:11,240 --> 00:07:15,220 We place the sell stop order, and in this case the market has a continuation 117 00:07:15,220 --> 00:07:16,920 that would activate this order. 118 00:07:17,460 --> 00:07:22,340 We identify three possible stop loss zones at the three low volume nodes 119 00:07:22,990 --> 00:07:27,750 Each of them has its advantages and disadvantages in terms of the risk taken 120 00:07:27,750 --> 00:07:28,890 the confidence it provides. 121 00:07:29,350 --> 00:07:33,550 The further away, the better, of course, but it may be too far away. 122 00:07:34,050 --> 00:07:39,550 As we can see, only the last stop loss point would not have been reached, but 123 00:07:39,550 --> 00:07:41,370 is certainly in a very distant location. 124 00:07:42,170 --> 00:07:44,690 We're taking a loss. That's absolutely fine. 125 00:07:45,110 --> 00:07:47,330 It's normal, and it's part of the business. 126 00:07:47,930 --> 00:07:51,850 Losses will occur throughout your trading career, and we have to accept 12111

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