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These are the user uploaded subtitles that are being translated: 1 00:00:08,192 --> 00:00:28,805 Surviving progress. 2 00:03:28,372 --> 00:03:31,872 In defining progress, 3 00:03:33,720 --> 00:03:35,420 I think it is very important to make a distinction 4 00:03:35,472 --> 00:03:38,272 between good progress and bad progress. 5 00:03:38,784 --> 00:03:42,084 I mean, things progress in a sense that they change. 6 00:03:43,464 --> 00:03:47,424 Both in nature and in human society there appears to be a clear trend towards increasing complexity. 7 00:03:51,240 --> 00:04:01,040 As change proceeds, we tend to delude ourselves that these changes always result in improvements. 8 00:04:01,776 --> 00:04:03,276 ....from the human point of view. 9 00:04:06,480 --> 00:04:07,980 SURVIVING PROGRESS 10 00:04:12,360 --> 00:04:17,360 We are now reaching a point in which technological progress and the increase in our economies and our numbers 11 00:04:17,544 --> 00:04:20,944 threaten the very existence of humanity. 12 00:04:35,728 --> 00:04:38,428 WHAT IS PROGRESS? 13 00:04:42,399 --> 00:04:43,239 What is progress..... 14 00:04:48,199 --> 00:04:51,899 I think..... mhm. That's too hard question.... 15 00:05:16,656 --> 00:05:20,656 When I think of the word 'progress'... 16 00:05:32,849 --> 00:05:38,949 Progress will not come easy, it won't come quick, but today we have an opportunity to move forward. 17 00:05:59,198 --> 00:06:03,698 It seems we are stuck in this trap for the last 200 years, since the industrial revolution 18 00:06:04,800 --> 00:06:07,300 where we think progress is more of the same, like: 19 00:06:07,488 --> 00:06:11,088 We should make our machines better and get more machines 20 00:06:11,127 --> 00:06:15,027 but we've been doing it for 200 years, so doing more of that is not progress. 21 00:06:15,672 --> 00:06:17,772 We're like stuck in this like a record...... 22 00:06:51,504 --> 00:06:54,504 Things are start out to seem like improvement or progress. 23 00:06:55,992 --> 00:06:58,992 These things our seductive, there seems like there is no downside to these 24 00:07:00,912 --> 00:07:05,112 but when they reach a certain scale they turn out to be dead ends, more traps. 25 00:07:06,552 --> 00:07:08,052 PROGRESS TRAPS 26 00:07:08,736 --> 00:07:15,236 I came up with a term 'progress trap' to define human behaviors that 27 00:07:15,456 --> 00:07:19,656 sort of seem to be good things, seem to provide benefits in a short term 28 00:07:19,800 --> 00:07:24,700 but which ultimately lead to disaster, because they are unsustainable. 29 00:07:25,944 --> 00:07:29,644 One example would be going right back to the old stone age 30 00:07:28,848 --> 00:07:30,928 the time of when our ancestors were hunting mammoths. 31 00:07:31,984 --> 00:07:36,084 They reached a point, where their weaponry and hunting techniques got so good 32 00:07:36,432 --> 00:07:39,392 that they destroyed hunting as a way of life through the most of the world. 33 00:07:43,512 --> 00:07:46,112 The people who discovered how to kill two mammoths instead of one 34 00:07:46,488 --> 00:07:49,169 had made real progress, but the people who discovered that they can 35 00:07:49,824 --> 00:07:53,024 eat very well by driving a whole herd over a cliff and kill 200 at once 36 00:07:53,664 --> 00:07:55,964 had fallen into a progress trap 37 00:07:56,160 --> 00:07:57,660 they'd made too much progress. 38 00:08:10,176 --> 00:08:12,616 Our physical bodies and physical brains as far as we can tell 39 00:08:13,944 --> 00:08:16,844 have changed very little in past 50 000 years. 40 00:08:19,896 --> 00:08:22,896 We've only been living in civilization for the last 5000 years 41 00:08:23,928 --> 00:08:28,028 ...at the most which is less then 0.2% of our evolutionary history. 42 00:08:32,217 --> 00:08:35,017 So the other 99.8 we were hunters and gatherers 43 00:08:35,040 --> 00:08:38,140 and that is the kind of way of life that made us. 44 00:08:46,175 --> 00:08:49,275 We are essentially the same people as those stone age hunters. 45 00:08:50,473 --> 00:08:55,873 What makes our way of life different from theirs is that culture has taken off at exponential rate 46 00:08:56,856 --> 00:09:01,156 and has really become detached from pace of natural evolution. 47 00:09:05,712 --> 00:09:11,012 So we are running 21st century software, our knowledge, 48 00:09:11,664 --> 00:09:15,164 on hardware that hasn't been upgraded for 50 000 years 49 00:09:16,752 --> 00:09:18,852 and this lies at the core of many of our problems. 50 00:09:22,500 --> 00:09:28,943 All of this is because our human nature is back in hunting-gathering era of the old stone age 51 00:09:28,944 --> 00:09:36,844 whereas our knowledge and technology, in other words, our ability to do both good and harm to ourselves and to the world in general 52 00:09:38,128 --> 00:09:39,828 has grown out of whole proportion. 53 00:09:42,176 --> 00:09:46,376 One thing to remember, of course, about human mind is that it's not 54 00:09:46,444 --> 00:09:50,344 that fundamentally different from, say, a brain of a chimpanzee. 55 00:09:52,944 --> 00:09:55,644 Most of the human brain, the basic structure of the brain 56 00:09:56,256 --> 00:09:57,756 is much older than human species 57 00:09:58,928 --> 00:10:00,428 some of it goes back to bacteria 58 00:10:01,320 --> 00:10:05,020 some of it goes back to worm, some of it originated in first mammals 59 00:10:05,184 --> 00:10:08,384 some of it within the first primates, some of it in first human beings. 60 00:10:08,784 --> 00:10:11,584 Very little however changed in the last 50 000 years. 61 00:10:11,976 --> 00:10:16,176 And so most of what we do, we do with hardware components 62 00:10:16,536 --> 00:10:19,736 that are much older than any of the problems that we face. 63 00:10:27,244 --> 00:10:29,244 When I first began to study chimps 64 00:10:29,496 --> 00:10:34,296 I thought that the task was to just map out more and more similarities 65 00:10:34,512 --> 00:10:38,412 to find the areas of cognition that hadn't been studied yet 66 00:10:38,808 --> 00:10:42,708 and simply show that chimps were just like us. 67 00:10:43,128 --> 00:10:45,628 WHY 68 00:11:06,024 --> 00:11:09,724 You can imagine teaching a small child to stand up a block up right 69 00:11:09,816 --> 00:11:11,657 and you can teach a chimp to do the same thing 70 00:11:11,664 --> 00:11:17,164 'oh I set up a block here, set up a block here, I can see everything, it�s very, very clear' 71 00:11:17,232 --> 00:11:19,632 'and I get a piece of fruit for doing it' 72 00:11:22,032 --> 00:11:25,332 But what happens when you introduce a small subtlety into the situation 73 00:11:25,872 --> 00:11:31,172 when you trick them and make the block off center just that the block keeps falling over. 74 00:11:32,280 --> 00:11:37,980 Well, the chimp will come in, set up the good block 75 00:11:40,008 --> 00:11:43,008 set up the block that we've tricked them with 76 00:11:43,656 --> 00:11:45,156 but then it falls over. 77 00:11:48,648 --> 00:11:50,748 Well the chimp can see that it's not the way it's supposed to be 78 00:11:51,024 --> 00:11:52,524 so they try again, and they try again 79 00:11:52,736 --> 00:11:55,296 and they move it to one place, and they move it to another place 80 00:11:56,592 --> 00:11:58,272 and they keep trying to get it to stand up 81 00:11:58,560 --> 00:12:00,361 because they know what is supposed to happen. 82 00:12:01,080 --> 00:12:04,980 But they have no understanding or no inclination to ask why. 83 00:12:05,088 --> 00:12:11,188 What unobservable part of the situation is causing that block to keep falling over. 84 00:12:12,656 --> 00:12:15,856 The young child will enter set up the good block 85 00:12:16,272 --> 00:12:19,072 try to set up the block that we've tricked them with 86 00:12:19,368 --> 00:12:22,168 but when it falls over, well first they'll try again 87 00:12:22,416 --> 00:12:28,116 then maybe try again, but very quickly they'll turn it over, feel the bottom of it, shake it, 88 00:12:28,304 --> 00:12:35,504 try to concern what unobservable property of that block is causing it to fall over. 89 00:12:35,928 --> 00:12:41,028 That's the fundamental, core difference, I believe, between humans and chimps 90 00:12:41,592 --> 00:12:50,492 that humans ask why, we're constantly probing for unobservable phenomenon to explain the observable. 91 00:12:50,592 --> 00:12:53,492 It's what's driven us to discover gravity, 92 00:12:54,408 --> 00:12:57,608 it's what's driven us to probe into the mysteries of quasars, 93 00:12:58,920 --> 00:13:02,820 and it's the same thing that drives us to probe into mysteries of each other 94 00:13:03,624 --> 00:13:05,124 in our every day life�s. 95 00:13:05,640 --> 00:13:07,140 'Why does she keep doing that?' 96 00:13:07,704 --> 00:13:13,804 'Why does he keep behaving like that, he must think this, he believe this, I don't understand...' 97 00:13:14,640 --> 00:13:16,140 'Why, why, why, why...' 98 00:13:25,392 --> 00:13:28,492 So the upside of the human capacity that asks why, 99 00:13:28,632 --> 00:13:31,232 to continuously probe behind appearances 100 00:13:31,704 --> 00:13:34,304 and to try to find out how the world really works 101 00:13:34,608 --> 00:13:40,808 is we develop fabulous new medicines, fabulous new therapeutic techniques to take care of people, 102 00:13:41,352 --> 00:13:45,852 we invent the whole cascade of modern technology. 103 00:14:10,248 --> 00:14:11,748 But the downside is that 104 00:14:12,216 --> 00:14:15,616 we invent the whole cascade of modern technology. 105 00:14:25,032 --> 00:14:30,032 Arguably we are the most intellectual creature that ever walked on planet earth. 106 00:14:34,176 --> 00:14:37,576 So how come then that so intellectual being 107 00:14:38,232 --> 00:14:41,732 is destroying its only home, because we only have the one home. 108 00:14:42,552 --> 00:14:47,052 Maybe one day people will be on Mars, but at the moment we've got planet earth. 109 00:14:47,280 --> 00:14:52,880 We are destroying, we are polluting, we are damaging the future of our own species 110 00:14:52,972 --> 00:14:56,872 which is very counterproductive from the evolutionary perspective. 111 00:15:14,568 --> 00:15:17,068 This capacity that seems so wonderful to us, 112 00:15:17,072 --> 00:15:18,572 ability to ask 'why' 113 00:15:18,940 --> 00:15:22,040 the very ability that defines modern science 114 00:15:22,080 --> 00:15:25,280 as a double-edge sword. 115 00:15:33,972 --> 00:15:35,772 If humans go extinct on this planet 116 00:15:36,672 --> 00:15:39,172 I think what's gonna be our epitaph on our gravestone is: 117 00:15:39,696 --> 00:15:44,396 'Why?' 118 00:15:58,200 --> 00:16:00,000 We have the ability to think into the future 119 00:16:00,360 --> 00:16:02,760 but most of our mechanisms, most of our brain mechanisms 120 00:16:03,288 --> 00:16:06,688 evolved before we had any ability to think forward to the future 121 00:16:06,656 --> 00:16:10,356 and when it made some sense for decisions to be short-term. 122 00:16:10,680 --> 00:16:15,980 A lot of our brain mechanisms, what I call ancestral mechanisms or reflexive mechanisms 123 00:16:16,440 --> 00:16:19,940 are tuned to making snap decisions, right away, like fight or flight 124 00:16:20,040 --> 00:16:22,540 you see a lion, either you're gonna fight or you gonna run 125 00:16:22,800 --> 00:16:25,200 no time to think about long-term consequences 126 00:16:25,992 --> 00:16:30,292 and that's good when we're stressed about something immediate that we can deal with, for example 127 00:16:30,576 --> 00:16:33,076 but those very systems that work by reflex 128 00:16:33,552 --> 00:16:38,452 are not so good at cooperating with these more modern systems, deliberative systems 129 00:16:38,500 --> 00:16:40,900 that allow us to make long-term decisions, and say 130 00:16:40,944 --> 00:16:45,244 is this good for me, is it good for my society, for my planet. 131 00:16:55,392 --> 00:16:56,892 NOT ENOUGH PLANETS 132 00:16:57,736 --> 00:16:59,636 Between the fall of the Roman empire 133 00:17:00,744 --> 00:17:03,744 and Columbus sailing it took 13 centuries 134 00:17:03,912 --> 00:17:07,012 to add 200 million people to the world�s population 135 00:17:07,416 --> 00:17:09,516 now it takes only 3 years. 136 00:17:12,216 --> 00:17:17,316 A simple thing like pasteurization, the warming of milk so that the bacteria are killed 137 00:17:17,256 --> 00:17:18,756 and the control of smallpox. 138 00:17:19,900 --> 00:17:24,600 Things like that have led to a great boom in human numbers. 139 00:17:30,552 --> 00:17:33,452 Overpopulation, which no one really wants talk about 140 00:17:33,600 --> 00:17:40,400 because it cuts that things like religious believes and the freedom of individual and autonomy of family and so on 141 00:17:40,944 --> 00:17:43,744 is something that we will have to deal with. 142 00:17:45,672 --> 00:17:52,372 We probably have to work towards a much smaller worldwide population then 6 or 7 billion. 143 00:17:52,449 --> 00:17:57,149 We probably need to go down to a half of that or possibly even third of that 144 00:17:57,408 --> 00:18:02,208 if everybody is going to live comfortably and decently. 145 00:18:04,776 --> 00:18:06,276 The other side of this problem 146 00:18:06,600 --> 00:18:08,120 and perhaps the more dangerous side is 147 00:18:09,168 --> 00:18:13,968 the footprint of the individuals at the top of the social pyramids 148 00:18:14,256 --> 00:18:15,756 who are consuming the most. 149 00:18:16,084 --> 00:18:20,084 Somebody in the U.S. or Europe is consuming about 50 times more resources 150 00:18:20,616 --> 00:18:22,256 then a person in a place like Bangladesh. 151 00:18:55,204 --> 00:18:57,804 If China is going to reach the level of consumption 152 00:18:58,128 --> 00:19:06,228 of the U.S. or Europe it's very unlikely that the world could support the addition of billion consumers at that level 153 00:19:27,384 --> 00:19:31,784 I'd say in China, maybe 200, 300 million people are affluent 154 00:19:31,800 --> 00:19:34,900 they could afford a lot, all that we can in the west 155 00:19:35,352 --> 00:19:43,252 in India ca. 200 million, so you add up this affluent segments of population 156 00:19:43,344 --> 00:19:44,844 in these developing countries 157 00:19:45,960 --> 00:19:49,360 but still what you come up with is no more then one and half, maybe two billion people. 158 00:19:52,176 --> 00:19:56,176 So there is still five billion people waiting to tap into these bonanzas 159 00:19:56,304 --> 00:20:02,004 of plentiful food, cars, decent housing, right education for their children. 160 00:20:02,808 --> 00:20:04,728 So the potential demand for resources is immense. 161 00:25:24,260 --> 00:25:25,960 For thousands of years, you know, 162 00:25:25,961 --> 00:25:31,100 China has the longest continuous civilization in the world. 163 00:25:34,800 --> 00:25:38,000 And it is only in the recent period of time 164 00:25:38,232 --> 00:25:41,232 when the European countries started to industrialize 165 00:25:42,000 --> 00:25:46,200 that China started to lag behind and therefore, you know, 166 00:25:46,824 --> 00:25:54,424 between the First Opium War in around 1840 all the way to 1978 167 00:25:54,792 --> 00:26:01,392 China went through a roller coaster of great humiliation, wars, aggression of foreign nations 168 00:26:01,584 --> 00:26:09,984 Japanese aggression against China, Civil War, collapse of Qing Dynasty, great cultural revolution, chaos in China 169 00:26:10,236 --> 00:26:14,036 that's when Deng Xiaoping reemerged in 1978 170 00:26:14,236 --> 00:26:17,536 he basically pointed out the only correct path. 171 00:26:24,792 --> 00:26:27,492 We need to go out to the path of growth 172 00:26:27,672 --> 00:26:31,372 and China needs to modernize and insutrialize. 173 00:26:55,692 --> 00:26:58,192 NATURAL CAPITAL 174 00:26:58,896 --> 00:27:01,096 Some people have written about, ehm, 175 00:27:01,536 --> 00:27:04,536 natural capital, the capital that nature provides 176 00:27:04,944 --> 00:27:06,464 which is the clean air and clean water 177 00:27:07,320 --> 00:27:13,420 the uncut forest, the rich farmland and the minerals, the oil, the metals, 178 00:27:13,544 --> 00:27:16,544 all these things are the capital the nature has provided 179 00:27:16,736 --> 00:27:22,236 and until about 1980 human civilization was able to live on 180 00:27:22,248 --> 00:27:24,148 what we might term interest of that capital 181 00:27:24,552 --> 00:27:27,852 or surplus that nature was able to produce 182 00:27:28,008 --> 00:27:31,908 the fruit that farmland can grow without actually degrading the farmland 183 00:27:32,736 --> 00:27:38,536 or the number of fish you can put out of sea without causing the fish stocks to crash 184 00:27:38,928 --> 00:27:43,728 but since 1980 we've been using more than the interest 185 00:27:43,872 --> 00:27:50,572 so we are in effect somebody who thinks he's rich cause he is spending the money that has been left in his inheritance 186 00:27:50,808 --> 00:27:53,908 not spending the interest but eating into the capital. 187 00:27:54,552 --> 00:27:57,152 The last time I visited the New York Stock Exchange 188 00:27:57,384 --> 00:28:01,884 was in 1980 and the mood sure was different than. 189 00:28:02,272 --> 00:28:07,672 Government with its high taxes, excessive spending and over regulation 190 00:28:07,872 --> 00:28:10,972 had thrown a wrench in the works of our free markets. 191 00:28:16,008 --> 00:28:21,408 With tax reform and budget control our economy will be free to expand to its full potential 192 00:28:21,720 --> 00:28:25,320 driving the bears back into permanent hibernation. 193 00:28:25,464 --> 00:28:28,864 That's our economic programme for next four years, we're going to turn the ball loose. 194 00:28:53,928 --> 00:28:56,428 The world is this big. 195 00:28:57,096 --> 00:28:59,996 It's not this big and it can't be this big. 196 00:29:00,456 --> 00:29:03,756 It's just this big, it's a finite sub. 197 00:29:07,652 --> 00:29:11,052 Instead of thinking that nature is this huge bank that we can just.... 198 00:29:11,448 --> 00:29:15,248 this endless credit card that we can just keep drawing on. 199 00:29:15,576 --> 00:29:20,176 We have to think about the finite nature of the planet 200 00:29:20,472 --> 00:29:28,272 and how you keep it alive, so that we too may remain alive. 201 00:29:29,256 --> 00:29:38,856 And less we conserve the planet there isn't going to be any "the economy". 202 00:29:45,772 --> 00:29:48,972 The ice-age-hunter is still us, it's in us. 203 00:29:49,512 --> 00:29:52,212 Those ancient hunters who thought that there would always be 204 00:29:52,440 --> 00:29:54,840 another herd of mammoth other the next hill 205 00:29:55,512 --> 00:30:01,512 shared the optimism of a stock trader, that there's always gonna be another big killing on the stock market 206 00:30:01,896 --> 00:30:03,396 in a next week or two. 207 00:30:39,764 --> 00:30:43,164 If you are watching the earth over the last 5 or 6 thousands of years 208 00:30:43,368 --> 00:30:45,743 and you're speeding up your film 209 00:30:45,744 --> 00:30:50,244 what you see is civilization breaking out like forest fires 210 00:30:50,524 --> 00:30:54,824 in one pristine environment after another 211 00:30:55,608 --> 00:31:03,008 and after a civilization has arisen as it burnt out natural resources in that area 212 00:31:03,288 --> 00:31:07,188 than it dies down and another fire breaks out somewhere else. 213 00:31:14,788 --> 00:31:17,788 And now of course we have one huge civilization around the world 214 00:31:18,168 --> 00:31:23,168 which we have to confront the possibility that the entire experiment of civilization 215 00:31:23,688 --> 00:31:25,488 is in itself a progress trap. 216 00:32:00,940 --> 00:32:02,660 "When will the economy turn around?" "yeah." 217 00:32:03,144 --> 00:32:10,144 "I'm not an economist, but I do believe we are growing and I can remember this press conference" 218 00:32:11,448 --> 00:32:15,348 "saying about recession as if you were economists." 219 00:32:17,568 --> 00:32:20,648 "I'm an optimist, I believe there is a lot of positive things for the economy." 220 00:32:22,464 --> 00:32:25,364 Faith in progress has become a kind of religious faith 221 00:32:26,640 --> 00:32:29,240 a sort of fundamentalism rather, like market fundamentalism 222 00:32:29,448 --> 00:32:31,748 that have just recently crashed and burned. 223 00:32:32,664 --> 00:32:35,064 The idea that you can let market leap 224 00:32:35,664 --> 00:32:38,164 is a delusion just like the idea that you could 225 00:32:38,616 --> 00:32:42,516 let technology leap and it will solve the problems created by itself 226 00:32:43,176 --> 00:32:44,676 in a slightly earlier phase. 227 00:32:44,908 --> 00:32:49,808 That has become a belief very similar to religious delusions 228 00:32:50,232 --> 00:32:52,832 that caused some societies to crash and burn in the past. 229 00:32:53,376 --> 00:32:54,876 A SHORT HISTORY OF DEBT 230 00:32:56,332 --> 00:32:59,832 Written records go back about four thousand years 231 00:33:00,120 --> 00:33:06,920 and from 2000 BC to the time of Jesus it was normal for all of the countries in the world 232 00:33:07,080 --> 00:33:11,780 to periodically cancel the debts when they became too large to pay 233 00:33:13,516 --> 00:33:17,216 so you have Sumer, Babylonian, Egypt, other regions 234 00:33:17,616 --> 00:33:19,916 all proclaiming these debt cancellation and 235 00:33:21,216 --> 00:33:26,616 the effect was to make a clean slate so that society would begin all over again. 236 00:33:29,092 --> 00:33:33,292 This was easy to do in a society when most debts were owed to the state 237 00:33:33,552 --> 00:33:38,652 it became much harder to do when enterprise and credit pasted out of the hand of state 238 00:33:39,072 --> 00:33:42,272 into the private hands, into the hand of an oligarchy 239 00:33:44,932 --> 00:33:48,732 and the last thing that they wanted was to have a king 240 00:33:48,840 --> 00:33:52,540 that would actually cancel the debts and restore equality 241 00:33:56,140 --> 00:34:00,140 Rome was the first country of the world not to cancel the debts. 242 00:34:00,840 --> 00:34:07,240 It went to war in Sparta, in Greece to overthrow the governments and kings 243 00:34:07,280 --> 00:34:09,380 that wanted to cancel the debts. 244 00:34:13,517 --> 00:34:19,317 The wars of the first century BC ended up stripping these countries of everything they had. 245 00:34:22,200 --> 00:34:23,700 it's stripped the public buildings, 246 00:34:23,701 --> 00:34:27,856 it's stripped the economies off their reproductive capacity 247 00:34:27,888 --> 00:34:29,888 it's stripped them of their works 248 00:34:30,240 --> 00:34:32,940 it made a desert out of the land 249 00:34:33,528 --> 00:34:35,028 and it said: "a debt is a debt". 250 00:34:38,164 --> 00:34:40,005 The collapse seems to have been closely linked 251 00:34:41,400 --> 00:34:44,800 to ecological devastation which led to also social and economic and military problems. 252 00:34:48,004 --> 00:34:49,964 In the early stages of the Roman Republic you had 253 00:34:51,768 --> 00:34:53,329 a fairly egalitarian land owning system 254 00:34:55,272 --> 00:34:56,792 the peasants had access to public land 255 00:34:58,704 --> 00:35:01,544 but as the Roman state became more powerful and the lords the generals 256 00:35:07,416 --> 00:35:09,816 began to appropriate public land for their own private states 257 00:35:12,360 --> 00:35:13,880 more and more peasants became landless 258 00:35:14,616 --> 00:35:16,936 at the same time corrosion was serious problem, so bad that 259 00:35:18,028 --> 00:35:22,108 some of the Roman ports stilled up with top soil that have been washed down from fields into the river. 260 00:35:24,432 --> 00:35:30,332 Archeologists have been able to establish how badly degraded much of Italy was by the fall of Roman empire 261 00:35:30,236 --> 00:35:33,636 and how it took a thousand years of much reduced population 262 00:35:33,792 --> 00:35:37,392 during the middle ages for fertility in Italy to rebuild. 263 00:35:39,988 --> 00:35:48,488 What was absolutely new in a Roman Empire was irreversible concentration of wealth at the top of economic pyramid 264 00:35:48,860 --> 00:35:50,620 and that what's progress has met ever since. 265 00:35:50,788 --> 00:35:54,588 Progress has ment: "you will never get back what we take from you". 266 00:35:55,012 --> 00:35:59,312 That's what brought on the dark age and that's what threatens to bring dark age again 267 00:35:59,380 --> 00:36:05,880 if society doesn't realise that if it lets the wealth to concentrate in the hands of financial class 268 00:36:06,100 --> 00:36:10,491 this class is not going to be any more intelligent in long term 269 00:36:10,492 --> 00:36:16,492 in disposing of the wealth then predecessors were in Rome, and other countries. 270 00:36:30,340 --> 00:36:33,840 Well, the term oligarchy, sounds a little esoteric 271 00:36:34,296 --> 00:36:37,296 it just means a small groups of people that got a lot of political power 272 00:36:37,440 --> 00:36:39,340 based on their economic power. 273 00:36:41,692 --> 00:36:46,392 We like to think that the U.S. is much more democratic, much more spread out, in terms of who has the power 274 00:36:46,608 --> 00:36:50,908 and oligarchy is something usually associated with relatively poor countries 275 00:36:51,076 --> 00:36:56,076 but that view has to be updated, because we've got an essential part of that problem 276 00:36:55,968 --> 00:36:57,769 of that structure in the United States today. 277 00:37:00,048 --> 00:37:03,488 People who have all this economical power were in financial sector, it was Wall Street. 278 00:37:06,028 --> 00:37:11,328 Wall Street became really powerful, they use that power to buy influence in Washington 279 00:37:11,856 --> 00:37:16,256 get more deregulation, so to get more of the play field shaped in a way they wanted 280 00:37:16,516 --> 00:37:20,016 which is no government intervention, no restrictions on what they wanna do. 281 00:37:20,472 --> 00:37:22,272 That'd enable them to make a lot more money 282 00:37:22,440 --> 00:37:26,540 which bought them more political power and this went on for considerable period of time 283 00:37:26,908 --> 00:37:29,108 until of course there was an enormous crash. 284 00:37:31,828 --> 00:37:40,228 But basically you come to us today on your bicycles after buying girl-scout cookies and helping out Mother Teresa 285 00:37:40,304 --> 00:37:47,804 telling us: "we are sorry", "we didn't mean it", "we won't do it again", "trust us". 286 00:37:47,924 --> 00:37:53,624 Well, I have some people at my constituancy that actually robbed some of your banks 287 00:37:53,472 --> 00:38:00,372 and they say the same thing! They're sorry, they didn't mean it, they won't do it again, just let'em out. 288 00:38:02,064 --> 00:38:09,264 Do you understand that this is a little difficult for most of my constituants to take that you learned your lesson. 289 00:38:10,348 --> 00:38:12,148 The bankers can't stop themselves. 290 00:38:12,516 --> 00:38:18,516 It's in their DNA, in DNA of their organizations to take massive risks, to pay themselves ridiculous salaries 291 00:38:18,768 --> 00:38:23,668 and to collapse. And the more that reasonable, responsible people at the center and the left and the right 292 00:38:24,024 --> 00:38:33,724 see this, the closer we'll get to constrain the power of these, out of control, factual oligarchs. 293 00:38:34,231 --> 00:38:38,331 It's not a mystery, it's not a surprise, we know we have crisis every 5 or 10 years. 294 00:38:38,784 --> 00:38:41,684 My daughter called me from school one day and said: 295 00:38:41,936 --> 00:38:44,436 "Dad what's a finansial crisis", I tried to be funny, I said: 296 00:38:44,928 --> 00:38:47,228 "It's something that happens every 5 or 7 years", than she said: 297 00:38:47,416 --> 00:38:50,256 "Why everybody is so suprised?", so we aren't, we shouldn't be suprised 298 00:38:58,464 --> 00:39:01,664 I read scroll on the wall somewhere, that 299 00:39:01,876 --> 00:39:06,376 everytime history repeats itself the price goes up. 300 00:39:13,420 --> 00:39:17,399 If you look at the increasing complexity of civilization 301 00:39:17,400 --> 00:39:21,100 what you can see is that towards the end of classic Maya period 302 00:39:21,101 --> 00:39:27,743 it is the enormous amount of effort put to build palaces and temples 303 00:39:27,744 --> 00:39:33,444 that were controlled entirely by nobility and from which, what I imagine, the peasantry was excluded 304 00:39:33,864 --> 00:39:39,364 just as ordinary folks are excluded from gated communities in many countries today 305 00:39:39,672 --> 00:39:43,172 and one imagines also that therefor the people at the bottom 306 00:39:43,704 --> 00:39:47,104 were becoming more and more disenchanted with the rulers 307 00:39:47,476 --> 00:39:50,076 as they felt that the social contract, that had once existed, 308 00:39:50,212 --> 00:39:55,912 that the rulers were the mediators between the gods and themselves 309 00:39:56,068 --> 00:39:59,468 and would help them get good weather, good crops and all that 310 00:40:00,000 --> 00:40:03,500 as they saw that begining to break down and their rulers in effect loosing touch 311 00:40:04,008 --> 00:40:06,506 with the people who they claim to represent 312 00:40:06,507 --> 00:40:10,204 it's the pattern I think we can see a lot in the modern world now. 313 00:40:13,152 --> 00:40:17,183 Every society in history for the last 4 thousand years 314 00:40:17,184 --> 00:40:21,584 has found that debts grow more rapidly that people can pay 315 00:40:22,924 --> 00:40:28,724 the problem is a small oligarchy of 10% of the population on the top 316 00:40:29,064 --> 00:40:31,764 to whom all of these debts are owed to. 317 00:40:31,920 --> 00:40:36,720 You want to annule the debts to the top 10%, thats what they're not going to do. 318 00:40:37,012 --> 00:40:38,512 The oligarchy is running things. 319 00:40:38,784 --> 00:40:44,584 They would rather annule the bottom 90% right to live then to annule the money thats due to them 320 00:40:44,904 --> 00:40:49,504 they would rather strip the planet and shrink the population and be paid 321 00:40:49,968 --> 00:40:51,468 rather then give up their claims. 322 00:40:51,536 --> 00:40:54,536 That's the political fight of the XXI century. 323 00:40:56,328 --> 00:40:58,628 DEBT PUSHERS 324 00:40:59,184 --> 00:41:04,684 Our job on Wall St. was to balance the payments of economies for Chase Manhattan Bank in the 1960's. 325 00:41:07,752 --> 00:41:13,152 My first job there was to calculate how much debt could third world countries pay 326 00:41:13,684 --> 00:41:17,075 and the answer was, well, how much do they earn, 327 00:41:17,076 --> 00:41:20,076 and whatever they earn, that's what they could afford to pay in interest 328 00:41:20,524 --> 00:41:24,724 our objective was to take the entire earnings of a third world country 329 00:41:25,156 --> 00:41:29,356 and say, ideally, that would be all paid as interest to us. 330 00:41:32,428 --> 00:41:35,628 Look, don't give me a hard look story, I hear them every day 331 00:41:36,028 --> 00:41:40,028 and quite frankly they bore me. 332 00:41:40,564 --> 00:41:49,764 The facts are simple: İn 1973 this bank gave you a loan and you still haven't paid it back. 333 00:41:51,028 --> 00:41:55,828 Admittedly you paid back the inital sum, but not the interest 334 00:41:55,852 --> 00:42:00,652 which to date amounts to nine times the amount origianaly borrowed. 335 00:42:01,564 --> 00:42:03,064 Nine times 336 00:42:04,204 --> 00:42:07,304 so you better get your act together, times are tough, 337 00:42:07,536 --> 00:42:11,036 and we all having to clamp down 338 00:42:13,512 --> 00:42:20,712 and don't look at me like that, this is a bank, not a charity. 339 00:42:23,116 --> 00:42:30,216 The number 1 costs for foreign lending through some of the multilateral associations. 340 00:42:30,304 --> 00:42:35,004 IMF or World Bank is the death tomb on the continent. 341 00:42:38,596 --> 00:42:43,796 We can look at the support of the dictators that took place thirty years ago 342 00:42:44,712 --> 00:42:49,812 from 1960 till 1997, of a brutal dictator. 343 00:43:02,932 --> 00:43:04,432 He was given humengous loans. 344 00:43:06,772 --> 00:43:10,372 Everyone knew he wasn't using that for the population 345 00:43:10,968 --> 00:43:15,868 he was propped up as one of the biggest leader in the whole african continent. 346 00:43:16,764 --> 00:43:19,764 While your country is young, only 10 years of age 347 00:43:19,900 --> 00:43:23,500 that it is had a period of progress in that period, 348 00:43:24,744 --> 00:43:31,444 which has been an example for nations throughout the world. 349 00:43:32,956 --> 00:43:38,256 You have moved forward economicaly, you have estabilished unity in your country 350 00:43:40,272 --> 00:43:46,672 and you have a vitality, which impresses every visitor when he comes to Congo. 351 00:43:46,776 --> 00:43:52,576 What is interesitng is all the money and plunder from all iternational debt 352 00:43:53,064 --> 00:43:57,464 is found in western banks, so as he was removed from power 353 00:43:57,820 --> 00:44:00,520 the money never returned to the Congies. 354 00:44:07,444 --> 00:44:12,344 The population didn't have access to medical services 355 00:44:12,460 --> 00:44:18,660 didn't have access to adequate education, living wage and 356 00:44:19,032 --> 00:44:22,732 calculating up to date, now Congo has 14 bln dollar debt 357 00:44:23,164 --> 00:44:30,064 structure and the weight where the people do not benefit and human cost is so high. 358 00:44:30,532 --> 00:44:34,432 In Congo we have 6 million deaths since 1996. 359 00:44:44,804 --> 00:44:50,104 Rich countries lend, so called, "developping countries" a big wack of "money". 360 00:44:50,356 --> 00:44:54,556 Debt is incurred on behalf of people who have nothing to do with it and don't know anything about it. 361 00:44:55,104 --> 00:45:02,204 Then they are expected to pay the price by scraping off their livelihood turning it into money. 362 00:45:02,520 --> 00:45:04,020 Giving it to somebody else... 363 00:45:04,021 --> 00:45:08,663 Howcome the money given to common benefit of the people 364 00:45:08,664 --> 00:45:12,664 use some of the funds to make sure that there are strongest against secesion in the country 365 00:45:12,888 --> 00:45:17,188 protecting against human rights violation, so many other issues that we face 366 00:45:17,448 --> 00:45:20,948 but these funds are not used for that because whatever is given 367 00:45:21,096 --> 00:45:24,696 they tell you specifically what project you have to use it for 368 00:45:24,912 --> 00:45:27,472 and mainly is usually mining projects to get access to resources. 369 00:45:41,232 --> 00:45:42,932 DIGGING HOLES 370 00:46:24,460 --> 00:46:32,260 You can relate to the destruction of the rainforest in Brasil directly to the Wall St. and London financial sector 371 00:46:32,688 --> 00:46:37,188 the story begins in 1982 whe countries couldn't pay their debts any more 372 00:46:37,708 --> 00:46:42,508 and the result is that Latin American coutries generally stopped paying because they said 373 00:46:42,836 --> 00:46:47,236 we're already paying all of the balance of payments surplus we have to the banks 374 00:46:49,564 --> 00:46:52,864 we don't have any money to import, to sustain living standards 375 00:46:52,968 --> 00:46:56,568 we don't have money to import, to build new factories to pay the debt 376 00:46:56,956 --> 00:46:59,856 so the IMF at that point said: 377 00:46:59,880 --> 00:47:04,480 Don't go bankrupt! You have an option, you can begin to sell off the public domain 378 00:47:04,848 --> 00:47:07,548 you have plenty of assets to sell to pay us 379 00:47:07,776 --> 00:47:14,876 you can sell off your water rights, your forests, your subsoil mineral resources, you can sell us your oil rights 380 00:47:17,544 --> 00:47:22,844 and so Brazil, Argentina and other countries began to sell off their resources to private investors 381 00:47:23,070 --> 00:47:28,370 and private investors bought these resources on credit. 382 00:47:50,112 --> 00:47:52,393 MARINA SILVA. - FORMER MINISTER OF THE ENVIRONMENT, BRAZIL 383 00:49:06,000 --> 00:49:08,320 RAQUEL TITSON-QUEIROZ. - ENVIRONMENTAL POLICE OFFICER IBAMA 384 00:50:47,184 --> 00:50:48,684 ENITO BEATA - SAWMILL OWNER 385 00:53:32,308 --> 00:53:35,608 They're cutting down the rainforest, they're emptying out the economy 386 00:53:35,712 --> 00:53:40,912 they're turning it to a hole in the ground to repay the bankers, that's the financial buisness plan 387 00:53:41,188 --> 00:53:44,788 that's how it ends up because the bankers goal is take their money 388 00:53:45,072 --> 00:53:48,472 and begin digging holes in another country and empyting out that country 389 00:53:48,696 --> 00:53:51,096 that's the global financial system. 390 00:55:09,796 --> 00:55:15,496 The economists say: İf you clearcut the forest, take the money, and put it in the bank 391 00:55:15,676 --> 00:55:17,176 you can make 6 or 7%. 392 00:55:17,736 --> 00:55:22,136 If you clearcut the forest, put it into Malysia or smth you can make 30 or 40%. 393 00:55:22,320 --> 00:55:26,320 So who cares whever you keep the forest, cut it down, put the money somewhere else 394 00:55:26,488 --> 00:55:29,888 when those forests are gone, put it in fish, the fish are gone, put it in computers. 395 00:55:30,480 --> 00:55:34,680 Money doesn't stand for anything and money now grows faster then the real world. 396 00:55:35,140 --> 00:55:37,740 Conventional economics is a form of brain damage. 397 00:55:38,304 --> 00:55:39,804 DAVID SUZUKI - GENETICIST/ACTIVIST 398 00:55:41,764 --> 00:55:46,464 Economics is so fundamentally disconnected from the real world 399 00:55:46,540 --> 00:55:48,040 it is destructive. 400 00:55:48,504 --> 00:55:51,204 If you take an introductory course in economics 401 00:55:52,008 --> 00:55:55,008 the professor in the first lecture will show a slide of the economy 402 00:55:55,348 --> 00:56:01,346 and it looks very impressive, you know, raw material, extraction processes, manufacture, wholesale, retails, 403 00:56:01,347 --> 00:56:02,844 with arrows going back and forward 404 00:56:03,028 --> 00:56:05,868 and they try to impress you because they think that they know damn well. 405 00:56:07,036 --> 00:56:12,636 Economics is not a science but they're trying to fool us into thinking that it is a real science. It's not. 406 00:56:12,796 --> 00:56:17,496 Economics is a set of values that they then try to use mathematical equations and all that stuff 407 00:56:18,124 --> 00:56:19,624 and pretend that it's a science. 408 00:56:19,540 --> 00:56:24,540 But if you ask the economist in that equation where do you put the ozone layer 409 00:56:24,936 --> 00:56:28,536 where do you put the deep underground aquafiers of fossil water 410 00:56:28,800 --> 00:56:31,900 where do you put topsoil or biodiversity, their answer is: 411 00:56:31,968 --> 00:56:34,468 Oh, those are externalities. 412 00:56:34,636 --> 00:56:36,237 Well, then you might as well be on Mars. 413 00:56:36,316 --> 00:56:39,416 That economy is not based in anything like a real world. 414 00:56:39,844 --> 00:56:44,144 It's life that filters water in hydrologic cycle 415 00:56:44,476 --> 00:56:49,276 it's microrganisms in the soil that create the soil that we can grow our food in 416 00:56:49,500 --> 00:56:51,700 nature performs all kinds of services 417 00:56:51,840 --> 00:56:54,640 insects fertilize all of the flowering plants 418 00:56:54,768 --> 00:56:58,168 these services are vital to the health of the planet 419 00:56:58,560 --> 00:57:02,160 economist call these externalities. That's nuts! 420 00:57:30,920 --> 00:57:36,720 Unlimited ecoomic progress in the world of finite natural resources doesn't make sense. 421 00:57:37,060 --> 00:57:41,560 It's a pattern that is bound to colapse and we keep seeing it collapsing 422 00:57:42,024 --> 00:57:46,224 but then build it up because there are these strong vested interests 423 00:57:46,344 --> 00:57:47,844 we must have buisness as usual 424 00:57:48,648 --> 00:57:54,348 and you know, you got, the arms manufacturers, the petroleum industry, pharmaceutical industry 425 00:57:54,580 --> 00:57:59,580 and all of this feeding into helping to create corrupt governemnents 426 00:58:00,092 --> 00:58:04,692 who are putting the future of their own people at risk. 427 00:58:07,564 --> 00:58:12,079 You can imagine lilies growing in a pond. 428 00:58:12,080 --> 00:58:15,680 Lilies grow very rapidly, they double every day 429 00:58:16,080 --> 00:58:20,580 they're going to cover the whole surface and there won't be any way for the fish getting oxygen 430 00:58:20,692 --> 00:58:23,292 and all the life is going to die in the pond 431 00:58:23,572 --> 00:58:25,072 that's how rapidly things can grow. 432 00:58:26,016 --> 00:58:31,516 One day you are half full of lilies and the next day you're dead. 433 00:58:32,356 --> 00:58:37,456 You could say that today we're at the point in which the lily pond is half full 434 00:58:37,752 --> 00:58:44,352 the life is being snuffed out of national economies and the debt goes on doubling 435 00:58:44,592 --> 00:58:48,792 how long can it do it. It has one day to go. 436 00:59:01,996 --> 00:59:06,596 All the civilizations of the past and, I think our own, only seem to be doing well 437 00:59:06,556 --> 00:59:11,556 when they're expaning, when the population is growing, when the industrial output is growing 438 00:59:12,144 --> 00:59:15,044 and when the cities are spreading out. 439 00:59:20,116 --> 00:59:23,816 Eventualy you reach the point at which the population has overrun everything. 440 00:59:24,244 --> 00:59:27,444 The cities have expanded over the farmland 441 00:59:29,404 --> 00:59:34,404 the people at the bottom begin to starve and the people at the top loose their legitimacy 442 00:59:37,132 --> 00:59:38,812 and so you get hunger, you get revolution. 443 01:00:09,268 --> 01:00:12,368 Now, one scary thing about the moment we're in is that 444 01:00:12,369 --> 01:00:16,168 for the first time there is kind of only one system 445 01:00:18,144 --> 01:00:26,844 so if the whole thing goes down, you won't have what you've had in previous eras of epic collapse 446 01:00:26,884 --> 01:00:31,084 which is that even if one civilization goes down and it may take a while to recover 447 01:00:31,160 --> 01:00:36,760 there are other robust civilizations that can be guardians of progress. 448 01:00:37,224 --> 01:00:39,664 ROBERT WRIGHT. - AUTHOR OF NONZERO: THE LOGIC OF HUMAN DESTINY 449 01:00:41,980 --> 01:00:44,880 In that sense some of the things that have been reassuring in the past 450 01:00:45,508 --> 01:00:49,208 about progress don't necesserily apply to the current situation 451 01:00:49,992 --> 01:00:54,392 'cause once you get to the global level you've only got one experiment working. 452 01:00:58,208 --> 01:01:01,808 That's just the inevitable combination of its growth ever since the stone age 453 01:01:02,516 --> 01:01:04,716 and there were waystations like the Roman empire 454 01:01:05,424 --> 01:01:08,724 and now here we are and more and more people, we're in the same boat 455 01:01:09,240 --> 01:01:14,440 and they face problems and either they will solve them together or suffer together 456 01:01:14,441 --> 01:01:16,636 possibly on a catastrophic scale. 457 01:01:16,856 --> 01:01:18,356 ESCAPING THE TRAP 458 01:01:24,128 --> 01:01:29,328 We are entering an increasingly dangerous period of our history 459 01:01:34,180 --> 01:01:42,380 our genetic code still caries the selfish and agressive intincts that were survival advantage in the past 460 01:01:43,204 --> 01:01:44,704 but I'm an optimist. 461 01:01:45,600 --> 01:01:47,161 STEPHEN HAWKING - THEORETICAL PHYSICIST 462 01:01:55,920 --> 01:02:03,420 If we are the only inteligent beings in the galaxy we should make sure we survive and continue. 463 01:02:14,308 --> 01:02:20,608 If we can avoid diseaster for the next two centuries our species should be safe. 464 01:02:26,288 --> 01:02:30,888 We have made remarkable progress in the last hundred years. 465 01:02:41,255 --> 01:02:47,655 Our only chance of going through survival is not to remain on planet earth 466 01:02:47,848 --> 01:02:49,848 but to spread out into space 467 01:02:58,908 --> 01:03:03,708 I was at the conference a few years back with George Lukas 468 01:03:04,416 --> 01:03:06,516 and he came up and said 469 01:03:06,852 --> 01:03:10,052 there is only two hopes for humanity. 470 01:03:11,096 --> 01:03:15,396 Either we find another planet to colonize after we've destroyed this one 471 01:03:16,032 --> 01:03:24,732 or perhaps your technology, meaning what we are doing with genetic code, might allow us to transform ourselves 472 01:03:25,804 --> 01:03:28,704 or other aspects of the planet where we can continue to live here. 473 01:03:29,592 --> 01:03:31,092 J. CRAIG VENTER. - BIOLOGIST / CEO SYNTHETIC GENOMICS 474 01:03:31,008 --> 01:03:35,808 We're here to celebrate the complition of the first survey of the entire human genome 475 01:03:35,816 --> 01:03:42,816 without a doubt this is the most important, most wondrous map ever produced by human kind. 476 01:03:43,308 --> 01:03:48,908 We are announcing today that the first time our species can read the chemical letters of its genetic code. 477 01:03:52,708 --> 01:03:57,708 For the last several years my team has been sailing around the world 478 01:03:57,840 --> 01:04:02,540 looking for all the species in the ocean, the microspecies, on filters 479 01:04:02,712 --> 01:04:06,412 and we isolate all the DNA, all at once from all of them 480 01:04:07,228 --> 01:04:09,428 I have a novel way of looking at these genes 481 01:04:09,760 --> 01:04:12,860 I've use them as the design components of the future. 482 01:04:14,298 --> 01:04:19,308 It's mind-bugging concept, even though we're doing it everyday, 483 01:04:20,168 --> 01:04:24,868 that we can simply start with four bottles of chemicals, write the genetic code 484 01:04:25,020 --> 01:04:29,120 and change the genetic code of species, basically developing new species 485 01:04:29,528 --> 01:04:36,128 and we can try and find ways to make fuels that other people haven't even imagined 486 01:04:36,316 --> 01:04:39,016 we can do this with novel source of food 487 01:04:39,228 --> 01:04:44,228 we're limited only by our imagination and whatever biological reality is 488 01:04:47,523 --> 01:04:53,723 when we consider trying to replace oil, we use bilions of gallons of oil a year 489 01:04:53,960 --> 01:05:00,360 it's a, I can't even, i think I have pretty good imagination, envision what a billion gallons of oil is 490 01:05:01,320 --> 01:05:09,320 making a billion gallons of oil from invisible microbs is a certain leap of faith 491 01:05:09,968 --> 01:05:11,608 in fact that's how we proceed in science. 492 01:05:20,452 --> 01:05:25,552 Instead of writing software for computers, we can now write software for life. 493 01:05:36,992 --> 01:05:44,527 By changing and taking over evolution, changing the timecourse of evolution 494 01:05:44,528 --> 01:05:48,828 and going into deliberate design of species for our own survival 495 01:05:50,672 --> 01:05:57,072 at least gives us some points of optimism that we have a chance to control our destiny. 496 01:05:59,304 --> 01:06:03,004 We're here today to announce the first synthetic cell. 497 01:06:03,096 --> 01:06:08,996 This is the first self-replicating species that we've had on the planet whose parent is a computer. 498 01:06:13,008 --> 01:06:14,508 GODS R US? 499 01:06:15,864 --> 01:06:20,164 One of the challanges that faces the human species is 500 01:06:20,400 --> 01:06:23,000 we're more and more in a position of acting like gods 501 01:06:24,960 --> 01:06:29,260 it has been true for a while because we have the ability to change the climate for example 502 01:06:29,908 --> 01:06:33,108 this is gonna be even more true with genetic technologies 503 01:06:33,604 --> 01:06:36,804 we're gonna be able to manipulate other species ad eventualy ourselves. 504 01:06:37,880 --> 01:06:41,780 We're gonna be in a position of controling our own faith in a way that 505 01:06:42,120 --> 01:06:47,920 no creature has ever, you know, in billion years on the planet had an opportunity to do. 506 01:06:50,332 --> 01:06:54,832 I once wrote a poem in which a mad bishop said 507 01:06:55,032 --> 01:07:00,832 "a man became god, became greater than god, and the godhood of man" 508 01:07:01,728 --> 01:07:10,828 I do not see anyone living in this materialistic society as being anything like god 509 01:07:11,088 --> 01:07:12,588 I don't know what god is, 510 01:07:13,036 --> 01:07:21,036 but in my wildest dreams I would never conceive of god or a god as being like 511 01:07:21,432 --> 01:07:25,732 a modern human being in a materialistic society. 512 01:07:26,208 --> 01:07:28,208 We're anything but godlike, I think 513 01:07:28,708 --> 01:07:34,608 the challenges are so overwhelming to all of us 514 01:07:35,716 --> 01:07:42,016 that we're all trying to use whatever new tools we can to try and change the future. 515 01:07:42,528 --> 01:07:45,028 Synthetic biology is a progress trap par exellence. 516 01:07:45,528 --> 01:07:47,568 JIM THOMAS. - ACTIVIST/AUTHOR OF THE NEW BIOMASSTERS 517 01:07:48,152 --> 01:07:52,752 Biologist have pointed out that whese engineering aproach is all very well 518 01:07:53,256 --> 01:07:58,156 and that engineers can try to treat life as it was some kind of computer engineering substrate 519 01:07:58,732 --> 01:08:01,632 but ultimately the microbes are gonna end up loughing at them 520 01:08:01,636 --> 01:08:06,036 the life doesn't work like that. 521 01:08:19,592 --> 01:08:23,192 I think the problems that we're seeing now whever we are talking about hunger, 522 01:08:23,400 --> 01:08:28,000 massive inequity, when we're talking about climate change or the loss of biodiversity 523 01:08:28,296 --> 01:08:32,796 have been driven over the last 200 years by a system of overproduction of stuff 524 01:08:33,120 --> 01:08:34,620 and overconsuption of stuff 525 01:08:35,592 --> 01:08:40,692 and that's being inflated and inflated and inflated to a point where there really is not in any way reasonable 526 01:08:41,136 --> 01:08:47,036 the companies and those of the governements who supported that approach 527 01:08:47,376 --> 01:08:52,076 are now saying that they will provide new technologies to continue that consumption of stuff 528 01:08:52,224 --> 01:08:56,124 that level of production. It's just not realistic. 529 01:08:55,592 --> 01:08:59,092 ExxonMobil and Synthetic Genomics have built a new facility 530 01:08:59,544 --> 01:09:02,144 to identify the most productive species of algea. 531 01:09:02,352 --> 01:09:06,052 How'd you imaigne amazing little criters make crit oil which we could turn into biofuels. 532 01:09:06,388 --> 01:09:10,688 They also absorb CO2. We are hoping to suplemet fuels that we use in our vehicles 533 01:09:11,096 --> 01:09:14,475 to some day help meet the words energy demands. 534 01:09:14,476 --> 01:09:19,576 What is harder mapping the entire genome set that makes up a human being 535 01:09:20,088 --> 01:09:22,588 or making algea produce energy? 536 01:09:22,084 --> 01:09:28,084 Making algea produce energy is not hard but doing it on a scale required to have a major economic 537 01:09:28,876 --> 01:09:31,576 and environmental impact is going to be a huge challenge 538 01:09:32,592 --> 01:09:37,892 but have got partner in ExxonMobil to try and get it to a scale that it needs to be 539 01:09:38,112 --> 01:09:39,612 of billions gallons a year. 540 01:09:39,840 --> 01:09:43,540 A lot of engineering is reqired for facilities the size of San Francisco 541 01:09:43,992 --> 01:09:45,912 I think that they are serious and we're serious. 542 01:09:46,656 --> 01:09:52,256 What we're seeing alongside the development of synthetic biology is a massive corporate grab on plant life. 543 01:09:52,704 --> 01:09:57,104 Literaly speaking that means a grab on land and a grab on seas as well. 544 01:09:57,936 --> 01:10:02,136 Where people have been moved out of land to make way for the growing of plant life 545 01:10:02,504 --> 01:10:06,704 that can be transformed into plastics, chemicals, fuels and so forth 546 01:10:06,868 --> 01:10:12,568 and what drives synthetic biology is not an attempt to save the planet or help humanity 547 01:10:13,128 --> 01:10:17,328 but an attempt to increase the bottom line for certain very large corporations. 548 01:10:17,760 --> 01:10:21,460 If we're gonna feed the upcoming nine billion people 549 01:10:22,344 --> 01:10:31,444 we can't afford to use our prime crop land for trying to produce billions of gallons of fuel that we use. 550 01:10:31,928 --> 01:10:35,228 What we're doing is writing the genetic code, changing this species 551 01:10:35,744 --> 01:10:43,244 allows us to use desert land mhm.. we just need sunlight and CO2 552 01:10:44,040 --> 01:10:47,540 for using this new engineered algea for example. 553 01:10:48,360 --> 01:10:52,760 Synthetic biology in a way, you know, it's frightening but I'm very sympathetic to this on many ways 554 01:10:53,260 --> 01:10:56,060 that it will be nice to get a more water efficient plants 555 01:10:56,236 --> 01:10:57,736 but still it would still need water 556 01:10:58,560 --> 01:11:02,360 Greg Venter cannot create a plant which needs no water and no nitrogen 557 01:11:02,424 --> 01:11:04,705 or it totaly fixes on nitrogen by sucking it from the air 558 01:11:05,428 --> 01:11:06,928 which is....., it cannot go that far. 559 01:11:07,656 --> 01:11:09,376 This does not fundamentally change the game. 560 01:11:09,744 --> 01:11:12,944 What fundamentally changes the game and what people don't want to hear 561 01:11:13,104 --> 01:11:18,604 and I'm telling this all the time and people say: "don't talk to us like that because it's just a no-starter" 562 01:11:18,840 --> 01:11:21,740 but for me this is the only starter: We have to use less. 563 01:11:22,896 --> 01:11:24,396 LIMITS 564 01:11:25,512 --> 01:11:28,712 The poor people need more. There is no noubt, there is no discussion there. 565 01:11:29,140 --> 01:11:34,940 If you are average villiger somewhere in Rajastan or Panjab or Nigeria u need more. Period. 566 01:11:35,376 --> 01:11:38,676 There's a basic human decency that commends you to say: These people need more 567 01:11:39,048 --> 01:11:41,769 more clean water, more basic food, more education for their children 568 01:11:41,984 --> 01:11:43,624 the discussion goes like before it begins 569 01:11:44,928 --> 01:11:50,928 but as far as us is concerned we certainly could and should use much, much, much less. 570 01:11:51,076 --> 01:11:54,476 People have been conditioned that things have to always go better 571 01:11:54,744 --> 01:11:59,344 and immediately if you say: "limit something", people think this is not getting better 572 01:11:59,616 --> 01:12:01,116 but it would be. 573 01:12:00,672 --> 01:12:04,572 It is even a no-starter when you say: You should eat less, you should eat less meat, right? 574 01:12:04,896 --> 01:12:08,796 Even that is a no-starter. You should use less electricity, right? 575 01:12:08,952 --> 01:12:12,252 You should build smaller cars. I saw the vice-president of GM talking about new GM 576 01:12:14,448 --> 01:12:20,648 and one of the journalists asks him: "but your cars are still so heavy", and he says: "yes, we are working on it" 577 01:12:20,712 --> 01:12:24,612 what is there to work on it?!? There are so many things that we could do. 578 01:12:25,128 --> 01:12:28,928 Not to surrender our stand of living, not to live in gutter, right? 579 01:12:29,304 --> 01:12:33,104 But we don't need one-and-a-half ton car to go from red light to red light. 580 01:12:34,056 --> 01:12:37,256 People are not willing to go back on these things. Most of them simply aren't 581 01:12:37,588 --> 01:12:39,988 because they've totally hijacked by this material culture. 582 01:12:40,392 --> 01:12:45,392 Let's not underestimate the persuasion, the power of this material culture. 583 01:12:45,744 --> 01:12:47,244 It's immense, it's just immense. 584 01:12:47,832 --> 01:12:50,532 When I've seen so many people being genuinly unhappy 585 01:12:50,496 --> 01:12:56,096 that they cannot afford a 50 000 sq foot, sorry, 50 000 dollar bathroom remodelling 586 01:12:56,880 --> 01:12:59,580 I mean, there is something wrong with that values set, right? 587 01:12:59,908 --> 01:13:04,508 'Cause bathroom is a place where you just spend, like, 10 minutes to take shower, brush your teeth 588 01:13:04,968 --> 01:13:09,968 so it doesn't have to be very... but, you know, how much money people are.... because I can't... yhm... 589 01:13:10,200 --> 01:13:14,800 because we are thinking about redoing our bathroom, right, so.. in my mind... it's very interesting 590 01:13:14,880 --> 01:13:20,780 for me it's a char because it has to be done, but for many people it's a life-affirming thing, you know. 591 01:13:20,784 --> 01:13:25,484 People are renting storage spaces, right? that they will never access, right? 592 01:13:25,644 --> 01:13:29,444 to store the junk which they cannot store in their 5000 sq. foot homes 593 01:13:29,880 --> 01:13:35,580 so do we need that? It's amazing! eh.... it's, it's, it's..... 594 01:13:35,792 --> 01:13:41,792 This is very difficult to put the geany in the bottle, so everything is defined in this material thinking 595 01:13:42,288 --> 01:13:48,388 I could make a lot more coherent but it's difficult because if you make it more coherent you make it prescriptive 596 01:13:48,312 --> 01:13:51,412 and prescriptions never work, really. Because I don't have the solution 597 01:13:51,432 --> 01:13:57,132 I can't say "we should follow this and then it will click and we will live happily everafter" 598 01:13:57,984 --> 01:14:02,384 so I'm making it deliberatly uncoherent. I could be very doctrinate, I could be, but you see, 599 01:14:02,640 --> 01:14:08,040 I lived for 26 years in communist society I'm inoculated against any doctriner grand solution, 600 01:14:08,424 --> 01:14:12,724 you know, "this is the path, this is the must, this is the paradigm which we have to follow" 601 01:14:12,912 --> 01:14:16,912 I'm just totally set agains it, so I'm making deliberatly, kind of, you know, 602 01:14:17,088 --> 01:14:22,688 messy, uncoordinated, because that's how life is. We don't know what path will emerge. 603 01:14:22,848 --> 01:14:29,448 As long as we are living on this sea of afluents and opportunities and material riches. 604 01:14:29,832 --> 01:14:35,932 It's just very difficult to make this individual, voluntary resolutes that are saying "enough", "back" 605 01:15:43,588 --> 01:15:46,388 I was walking around pointing my finger at everybody, you know, 606 01:15:46,800 --> 01:15:51,100 you people, you know, blaming the culture for its consumption 607 01:15:51,464 --> 01:15:58,064 finaly one day I came home and air-conditioners were on even though there was no one at home 608 01:15:58,968 --> 01:16:02,848 and I was like: Wait, I've been going around blaming everybody else but the fact of the matter is 609 01:16:02,880 --> 01:16:07,780 that my lifestyle requires a huge amount of resources too, so how can I blame other people 610 01:16:08,472 --> 01:16:14,572 and I realized that before I go around and try to change other people maybe I should look at myself and change myself 611 01:16:15,144 --> 01:16:16,644 keep my side of the street clean. 612 01:16:17,976 --> 01:16:23,676 So I came up with this idea that I would live as environmentaly as possible for a year and see how that affected us. 613 01:16:24,048 --> 01:16:26,608 COLIN BEAVAN. - ENGINEER / AUTHOR & DIRECTOR OF NO IMPACT PROJECT 614 01:16:26,740 --> 01:16:28,620 So we did this No Impact experiment, we did it. 615 01:16:29,016 --> 01:16:30,516 We live in New York, in the middle of the New York City 616 01:16:30,864 --> 01:16:37,264 which made it unussual because most people can think of environmental living as some kind of back to tha land thing 617 01:16:37,560 --> 01:16:42,660 but of course, back to the land, is not the right idea when it comes to saving our habitat 618 01:16:43,136 --> 01:16:47,536 if all of us in New York were to go back to the land we would very much destroy the land. 619 01:16:57,100 --> 01:17:00,900 We're not biologicaly consumptive this is not got to do with human nature. 620 01:17:00,988 --> 01:17:05,388 Human nature is to do what everybody else does, that's human nature 621 01:17:05,452 --> 01:17:10,052 that we want... and it's wonderful, it's like: I want to be with you, I want to be the same as you, 622 01:17:10,104 --> 01:17:13,304 I want to love you and I want you to love me, thats not bad. 623 01:17:13,392 --> 01:17:19,192 So that's... that's also part of the problem. I want to be the same as you and you consume 624 01:17:19,584 --> 01:17:21,464 so I'm not going to be the first not to consume. 625 01:17:21,484 --> 01:17:25,384 But it also tells us that if we can move from non-consumption to consumption, 626 01:17:25,800 --> 01:17:28,001 we can also go from consumtion back to non-consumption. 627 01:17:36,792 --> 01:17:40,292 We need to begin by saying: We're at the end of the failed experiment 628 01:17:40,536 --> 01:17:42,136 and it is time to say good bye to it. 629 01:17:42,336 --> 01:17:46,536 An economic experiment, it's a technological experiment that's been going on for couple of hundred years 630 01:17:46,632 --> 01:17:50,632 and it's not worked, it's brought us to this point of crisis. 631 01:17:50,812 --> 01:17:58,612 Then we can start sainly and inteligently say how can we live within the real limits that our planet gives us 632 01:17:58,756 --> 01:18:02,356 and create a safe operating space for humanity. 633 01:18:03,552 --> 01:18:08,752 Admitedly we've used are brains in ways that are detrimental to the environment and the society 634 01:18:09,024 --> 01:18:15,124 but brains are begining to get together around the planet to find solutions to some 635 01:18:15,936 --> 01:18:17,436 of the harm that we've inflicted. 636 01:18:17,976 --> 01:18:22,776 You know, we humans are a problem solving species. We always do pretty well with our back's to the wall. 637 01:18:23,448 --> 01:18:24,948 THA PLANETARY BRAIN 638 01:18:25,992 --> 01:18:30,592 It's easy now to see kind of a giant social brain or planetary brain 639 01:18:30,768 --> 01:18:36,568 'cause it's in a physical form of the internet, it looks so much like a nervous system, you almost can't miss the analogy. 640 01:18:38,928 --> 01:18:46,428 You might say that there always have been a lot of little social brains around the planet getting bigger, starting to form little interconnections among themselves. 641 01:18:46,944 --> 01:18:52,144 Now more than ever you could tell that there is a unified social brain. 642 01:19:14,452 --> 01:19:20,752 Even if the overall arc of history is toward an expended moral horizon, more and more people acknowledging the humanity 643 01:19:21,096 --> 01:19:25,996 more and more different kinds of people, there is always the risk of backsliding and it can be catastrophic. 644 01:19:26,208 --> 01:19:33,808 From a point of view of strict self-interest it is imperative that we make further moral progress 645 01:19:34,248 --> 01:19:39,648 that we get more and more people to acknowledge the humanity of one another 646 01:19:39,696 --> 01:19:41,497 or it will be bad for pretty much all of them. 647 01:19:41,640 --> 01:19:48,040 If we don't develop which you might call a moral perspective of god 648 01:19:49,152 --> 01:19:57,052 than we'll screw up the engineering part of playing god because the actual engineering solutions depend on 649 01:19:58,012 --> 01:20:03,712 seeing things from the point of view of other people, insuring that their lives don't get too bad 650 01:20:04,176 --> 01:20:06,576 because if they do it will come back to harm us 651 01:20:07,968 --> 01:20:12,668 so, you know, half of being god is just have been handed to us and the question is 652 01:20:13,224 --> 01:20:18,124 whether we'll master the other half of being god, the moral half. 653 01:20:23,956 --> 01:20:27,456 The bad news is the enlightment is sometimes hard to come by 654 01:20:28,200 --> 01:20:31,300 because of human nature in some cases, because you know, 655 01:20:31,780 --> 01:20:35,780 we've got these kinds of animal minds, desgined for very different environment 656 01:20:36,244 --> 01:20:44,344 facing novel problems, so enlightment part is going to require some real education and reflection 657 01:20:44,808 --> 01:20:47,508 and self-discipline and may not come natural 658 01:20:59,812 --> 01:21:02,112 I think what we’re up against here is human nature, 659 01:21:02,113 --> 01:21:10,864 we have to reform ourselves, remake ourselves in a way that cuts against the grain of our, our inner animal nature, 660 01:21:11,116 --> 01:21:19,916 and transcend that Ice Age hunter, that all of us are, if you, if you strip off the thin layer of civilization. 661 01:21:42,916 --> 01:21:48,516 We always have been the initiators of this experiment, we’ve unleashed it but we’ve never really controlled it. 662 01:21:48,292 --> 01:21:53,792 But now it’s more likely that we’re going to come to grief because of environmental problems. 663 01:21:54,000 --> 01:22:02,300 If we do, then that is really nature saying the experiment of civilization is a failed evolutionary experiment, 664 01:22:02,760 --> 01:22:09,160 that making apes smarter is a, is a dead end. So, it’s up to us to prove nature wrong, in a sense, 665 01:22:09,216 --> 01:22:20,216 to show that we can take control of our own destinies and behave in a wise way that will ensure the continuation of the experiment of civilization 666 01:23:07,682 --> 01:23:09,182 subtitles by 'strg'69930

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