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The situation for Russian troops in Kherson is critical.
The local population is violently sabotaging any actions of the Russians, giving away headquarters
positions, blowing up key collaborators and military personnel.
Management of the group moved to the left bank long ago, because it is impossible to
safely manage the occupation troops in the city itself.
Ammunition, food and fuel, the enemy has a critical situation with this.
The winter for Russians in the occupied areas on the right bank will be unbearable.
Communications between the banks have collapsed.
In fact the Russians are not able to move large numbers of troops quickly.
Only gradually.
And if the Kherson-Krivoy Rog front is again broken through by AFU troops, large Russian
forces in the Nikolaev direction will find themselves surrounded, cut off from escape
routes.
Thus, Russia has only three options.
The first is to go on the offensive and push back Ukrainian troops to Krivoy Rog and Mykolaiv.
This option is still completely unrealistic for Russian military forces.
To have such an ambition, one must have total control of the sky, and this is not the case.
The second option is to send more troops for defense with the risk of losing these troops
in case of unsuccessful combat operations and a breakthrough by the AFU to the bridges.
And, in my opinion, the Russians have not yet given up hope for the second option.
Although they are already morally preparing future mobilized Russians for a "goodwill
gesture," explaining why the Russian army is being defeated again.
What is happening now looks more like an attempt by the Russian occupiers to hold occupied
Kherson at all costs.
To hold out until the time when, as the Russians believe, they will gain at least some advantage
in numbers.
Even if right now it means the risk of losing a large amount of equipment, in case the AFU
forces break through the front.
I am not talking about the Russian soldiers who will find themselves surrounded on the
right bank, their fate is already clear.
Besides, if the Russians receive an order to retreat from the occupied districts of
Kherson, under cover of evacuation, the AFU will have to enter the city itself with combat,
because the Russians will cover the retreat exactly in the trenches around the regional
center.
On the whole it does not look like a voluntary retreat by the enemy now, but right now one
can only be sure of the Ukrainians' desire to liberate their country.
The Russians have built strong defensive lines around Kherson, for Kherson is the main objective
before the liberation of Crimea.
For the final victory, it is necessary to come close to the bridges so that the situation
becomes obvious to the Russians and there is no chance of holding Kherson - only retreat.
When that moment comes, the Russians will run again.
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