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The situation for Russian troops in Kherson
is critical.
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The local population is violently sabotaging
any actions of the Russians, giving away headquarters
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positions, blowing up key collaborators and
military personnel.
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Management of the group moved to the left
bank long ago, because it is impossible to
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safely manage the occupation troops in the
city itself.
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Ammunition, food and fuel, the enemy has a
critical situation with this.
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The winter for Russians in the occupied areas
on the right bank will be unbearable.
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Communications between the banks have collapsed.
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In fact the Russians are not able to move
large numbers of troops quickly.
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Only gradually.
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And if the Kherson-Krivoy Rog front is again
broken through by AFU troops, large Russian
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forces in the Nikolaev direction will find
themselves surrounded, cut off from escape
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routes.
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Thus, Russia has only three options.
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The first is to go on the offensive and push
back Ukrainian troops to Krivoy Rog and Mykolaiv.
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This option is still completely unrealistic
for Russian military forces.
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To have such an ambition, one must have total
control of the sky, and this is not the case.
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The second option is to send more troops for
defense with the risk of losing these troops
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in case of unsuccessful combat operations
and a breakthrough by the AFU to the bridges.
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And, in my opinion, the Russians have not
yet given up hope for the second option.
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Although they are already morally preparing
future mobilized Russians for a "goodwill
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gesture," explaining why the Russian army
is being defeated again.
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What is happening now looks more like an attempt
by the Russian occupiers to hold occupied
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Kherson at all costs.
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To hold out until the time when, as the Russians
believe, they will gain at least some advantage
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in numbers.
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Even if right now it means the risk of losing
a large amount of equipment, in case the AFU
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forces break through the front.
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I am not talking about the Russian soldiers
who will find themselves surrounded on the
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right bank, their fate is already clear.
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Besides, if the Russians receive an order
to retreat from the occupied districts of
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Kherson, under cover of evacuation, the AFU
will have to enter the city itself with combat,
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because the Russians will cover the retreat
exactly in the trenches around the regional
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center.
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On the whole it does not look like a voluntary
retreat by the enemy now, but right now one
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can only be sure of the Ukrainians' desire
to liberate their country.
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The Russians have built strong defensive lines
around Kherson, for Kherson is the main objective
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before the liberation of Crimea.
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For the final victory, it is necessary to
come close to the bridges so that the situation
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becomes obvious to the Russians and there
is no chance of holding Kherson - only retreat.
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When that moment comes, the Russians will
run again.
4401
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