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The enemy is planning an attack on Vuhledar,
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and is pulling tanks and infantry
fighting vehicles to this location.
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The city has a certain importance for the
enemy. It will be the starting point for
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expanding influence in the area and it is
all about logistics. But as long as Vuhledar
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is controlled by Ukrainian defense forces
and the railroad is under AFU fire control,
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there is no way Russian forces can establish
a rail connection from east to south.
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After damage to one of the railway
branches of the Crimean Bridge,
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its railway segment started operating in reverse
mode. As a result, the flow of cargo decreased,
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leading to a reduced capacity to support
the southern enemy group. Partially this
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issue is solved by road communication from
Russia through Mariupol to Berdyansk and
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Melitopol. They are attempting to address
this issue in part by using the maritime
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route through the Sea of Azov to reach
Berdyansk. But this is not the volume
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that the railroad would allow. Therefore,
this is a very important moment for them.
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Capture of Vuhledar for the enemy has
tactical significance, but there is
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a small nuance. All previous attempts
to capture the city failed miserably,
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the enemy always lacked the resource.
Vuhledar is a location around which
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fields are dotted with a huge number of
Russian occupiers and now they either
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need to accumulate large resources or bodies
in the fields will become many times more.
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If the enemy has problems with
logistics in the southern direction,
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what are the prospects for expansion of the
AFU bridgehead on the left bank of Dnipro.
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Now the Russian command on the left bank
is busy strengthening the Dniepr group
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of troops. Now it already starts to exceed 68
thousand personnel and continues to increase.
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As a result, they intend to extend
the area of control to cover more
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territory on the left bank. Consequently,
attempts to block the expansion of the
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Ukrainian bridgehead will continue, but as
of today, having quantitative superiority,
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they cannot completely prevent the expansion
of the bridgehead, despite the fact that the
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Ukrainian defense forces on the left bank
are not doing well logistically either.
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And this only emphasizes the point that the
Ukrainian side is using a certain kind of
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tactics that the Russians cannot counteract.
Due to the dominance on the heights on the
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right bank, the AFU is more successful in
counter-battery warfare on the left bank,
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and it is more difficult for
the Russian side to counter it.
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And, among other things, the Russians'
limited ability to use electronic warfare
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systems has given the AFU the opportunity to
conduct essentially conditional fire control
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of Route 22-06 with the help of drones.
And this significantly complicates the
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enemy's mobile and safe movement along this
highway. It is the last one of those that
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allow mobile movement and control of the
left bank from Oleshky to Nova Kakhovka.
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If they lose physical control over this
highway, then I can say that at least the
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first boundary of the left bank of the Kherson
region will be lost to the Russians. That is,
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without highway 22-06 they will not be
able to fully control the events that
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are taking place there. And they will need
to retreat to more advantageous positions.
4976
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