All language subtitles for 04-09-2023dxere

Recent events on the Southern Front demonstrate
a constant increase in the pace of the AFU's

advance.

The key point is not even the liberated territory,
the access to the "dragon's teeth", and in

some places even beyond them, but the chaos
with which the enemy forces began to transfer

units not from the operational reserve or
from neighboring groups, but from the eastern

theater of military operations - in the area
of Svatove and Kupyansk, where the enemy is

on the offensive.

Pulling out significant reserves from there
looks "very interesting", given the logistics

and time costs for this, the risks of defeat
during the accumulation and deployment in

a completely different direction.

Russia is failing in its offensive in the
east, where the enemy's main plan was to pull

back significant AFU reserves and prevent
them from being used in the south.

The Russian command planned to realize at
least one of the three goals: exit to Kupyansk,

exit to Borova and cutting the AFU grouping,
exit to Lyman and as a consequence still semi-enveloping

the Seversk AFU grouping.

To realize the goals the enemy carried out
three massive offensives, achieving in the

first days relatively uncritical results,
the enemy's advance was not only localized,

but also began the reverse displacement.

At Svatove, for example, the enemy's 4th Panzer
Division suffered its heaviest defeat in history.

The Russians planned a major offensive using
tanks as a maneuvering force to break through

the Ukrainian Armed Forces' defense.

But the FPV drones effectively interfered
with this plan and all the tanks were destroyed.

Yes, there are indeed brigades that the Ukrainians
put in additionally that could be called "reserve"

brigades, but they were not on the scale the
enemy had hoped for because the desired escalation

was not achieved.

The key to all of this was "timing".

The enemy forces had to realize at least one
of the listed objectives before the AFU came

out to the main defense lines in the South.

The AFU came out, and the occupiers did not
realize their goals.

Ukrainian troops are now already between the
first and second lines of defense of the Russian

armed forces, the destruction of those Russian
units that are retreating to the second line

in the breakthrough zone is underway.

The calculation by the Russian command was
that the Ukrainian Armed Forces would not

be able to break through even the first line
of defense.

Therefore, approximately 60% of the time and
resources were allocated to fortify this line,

while the second and third lines received
about 20% each.

In this regard, we can expect that the forcing
of the second line will be faster than the

first.

The occupiers are now bringing reinforcements
to the breakthrough area, but sooner or later

these reserves will be exhausted.

Therefore, the transfer of Russian paratroopers
from the east is caused not only by the "brewing

southern crisis" of the enemy, but also by
the strategic failure of the Russian command.

Currently, the occupiers are losing primarily
in terms of time.

To simplify, the Ukrainians are moving in
the South faster than the enemy could give

them a problem in the East, even though it
costs titanic efforts for the Ukrainian defense

forces.

Why titanic?

Because they lack the artillery support that
the Ukrainian Armed Forces have in the South,

and this is forced but logical - in the East,
the Ukrainian Armed Forces are holding back

the offensive with limited resources so that
they have something to advance with in the

South.

And the steadiness with which they will hold
in the east will directly affect the offensive

in the south.