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These are the user uploaded subtitles that are being translated: 1 00:00:01,170 --> 00:00:05,580 Recent events on the Southern Front demonstrate a constant increase in the pace of the AFU's 2 00:00:05,580 --> 00:00:07,069 advance. 3 00:00:07,069 --> 00:00:11,780 The key point is not even the liberated territory, the access to the "dragon's teeth", and in 4 00:00:11,780 --> 00:00:16,150 some places even beyond them, but the chaos with which the enemy forces began to transfer 5 00:00:16,150 --> 00:00:20,320 units not from the operational reserve or from neighboring groups, but from the eastern 6 00:00:20,320 --> 00:00:25,320 theater of military operations - in the area of Svatove and Kupyansk, where the enemy is 7 00:00:25,320 --> 00:00:27,340 on the offensive. 8 00:00:27,340 --> 00:00:31,230 Pulling out significant reserves from there looks "very interesting", given the logistics 9 00:00:31,230 --> 00:00:35,700 and time costs for this, the risks of defeat during the accumulation and deployment in 10 00:00:35,700 --> 00:00:38,420 a completely different direction. 11 00:00:38,420 --> 00:00:42,680 Russia is failing in its offensive in the east, where the enemy's main plan was to pull 12 00:00:42,680 --> 00:00:47,559 back significant AFU reserves and prevent them from being used in the south. 13 00:00:47,559 --> 00:00:52,710 The Russian command planned to realize at least one of the three goals: exit to Kupyansk, 14 00:00:52,710 --> 00:00:57,960 exit to Borova and cutting the AFU grouping, exit to Lyman and as a consequence still semi-enveloping 15 00:00:57,960 --> 00:00:59,950 the Seversk AFU grouping. 16 00:00:59,950 --> 00:01:04,080 To realize the goals the enemy carried out three massive offensives, achieving in the 17 00:01:04,080 --> 00:01:09,370 first days relatively uncritical results, the enemy's advance was not only localized, 18 00:01:09,370 --> 00:01:11,440 but also began the reverse displacement. 19 00:01:11,440 --> 00:01:18,870 At Svatove, for example, the enemy's 4th Panzer Division suffered its heaviest defeat in history. 20 00:01:18,870 --> 00:01:23,170 The Russians planned a major offensive using tanks as a maneuvering force to break through 21 00:01:23,170 --> 00:01:25,820 the Ukrainian Armed Forces' defense. 22 00:01:25,820 --> 00:01:31,329 But the FPV drones effectively interfered with this plan and all the tanks were destroyed. 23 00:01:31,329 --> 00:01:37,350 Yes, there are indeed brigades that the Ukrainians put in additionally that could be called "reserve" 24 00:01:37,350 --> 00:01:41,540 brigades, but they were not on the scale the enemy had hoped for because the desired escalation 25 00:01:41,540 --> 00:01:43,610 was not achieved. 26 00:01:43,610 --> 00:01:46,470 The key to all of this was "timing". 27 00:01:46,470 --> 00:01:50,890 The enemy forces had to realize at least one of the listed objectives before the AFU came 28 00:01:50,890 --> 00:01:53,960 out to the main defense lines in the South. 29 00:01:53,960 --> 00:01:59,170 The AFU came out, and the occupiers did not realize their goals. 30 00:01:59,170 --> 00:02:03,310 Ukrainian troops are now already between the first and second lines of defense of the Russian 31 00:02:03,310 --> 00:02:07,521 armed forces, the destruction of those Russian units that are retreating to the second line 32 00:02:07,521 --> 00:02:09,810 in the breakthrough zone is underway. 33 00:02:09,810 --> 00:02:13,730 The calculation by the Russian command was that the Ukrainian Armed Forces would not 34 00:02:13,730 --> 00:02:17,080 be able to break through even the first line of defense. 35 00:02:17,080 --> 00:02:23,060 Therefore, approximately 60% of the time and resources were allocated to fortify this line, 36 00:02:23,060 --> 00:02:27,220 while the second and third lines received about 20% each. 37 00:02:27,220 --> 00:02:31,680 In this regard, we can expect that the forcing of the second line will be faster than the 38 00:02:31,680 --> 00:02:33,040 first. 39 00:02:33,040 --> 00:02:37,750 The occupiers are now bringing reinforcements to the breakthrough area, but sooner or later 40 00:02:37,750 --> 00:02:39,800 these reserves will be exhausted. 41 00:02:39,800 --> 00:02:45,800 Therefore, the transfer of Russian paratroopers from the east is caused not only by the "brewing 42 00:02:45,800 --> 00:02:50,600 southern crisis" of the enemy, but also by the strategic failure of the Russian command. 43 00:02:50,600 --> 00:02:54,800 Currently, the occupiers are losing primarily in terms of time. 44 00:02:54,800 --> 00:02:59,610 To simplify, the Ukrainians are moving in the South faster than the enemy could give 45 00:02:59,610 --> 00:03:04,690 them a problem in the East, even though it costs titanic efforts for the Ukrainian defense 46 00:03:04,690 --> 00:03:05,690 forces. 47 00:03:05,690 --> 00:03:07,180 Why titanic? 48 00:03:07,180 --> 00:03:11,370 Because they lack the artillery support that the Ukrainian Armed Forces have in the South, 49 00:03:11,370 --> 00:03:16,080 and this is forced but logical - in the East, the Ukrainian Armed Forces are holding back 50 00:03:16,080 --> 00:03:20,129 the offensive with limited resources so that they have something to advance with in the 51 00:03:20,129 --> 00:03:21,580 South. 52 00:03:21,580 --> 00:03:25,790 And the steadiness with which they will hold in the east will directly affect the offensive 53 00:03:25,790 --> 00:03:26,250 in the south. 5667

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