Original subtitles

Recent events on the Southern Front demonstrate a constant increase in the pace of the AFU's

advance.

The key point is not even the liberated territory, the access to the "dragon's teeth", and in

some places even beyond them, but the chaos with which the enemy forces began to transfer

units not from the operational reserve or from neighboring groups, but from the eastern

theater of military operations - in the area of Svatove and Kupyansk, where the enemy is

on the offensive.

Pulling out significant reserves from there looks "very interesting", given the logistics

and time costs for this, the risks of defeat during the accumulation and deployment in

a completely different direction.

Russia is failing in its offensive in the east, where the enemy's main plan was to pull

back significant AFU reserves and prevent them from being used in the south.

The Russian command planned to realize at least one of the three goals: exit to Kupyansk,

exit to Borova and cutting the AFU grouping, exit to Lyman and as a consequence still semi-enveloping

the Seversk AFU grouping.

To realize the goals the enemy carried out three massive offensives, achieving in the

first days relatively uncritical results, the enemy's advance was not only localized,

but also began the reverse displacement.

At Svatove, for example, the enemy's 4th Panzer Division suffered its heaviest defeat in history.

The Russians planned a major offensive using tanks as a maneuvering force to break through

the Ukrainian Armed Forces' defense.

But the FPV drones effectively interfered with this plan and all the tanks were destroyed.

Yes, there are indeed brigades that the Ukrainians put in additionally that could be called "reserve"

brigades, but they were not on the scale the enemy had hoped for because the desired escalation

was not achieved.

The key to all of this was "timing".

The enemy forces had to realize at least one of the listed objectives before the AFU came

out to the main defense lines in the South.

The AFU came out, and the occupiers did not realize their goals.

Ukrainian troops are now already between the first and second lines of defense of the Russian

armed forces, the destruction of those Russian units that are retreating to the second line

in the breakthrough zone is underway.

The calculation by the Russian command was that the Ukrainian Armed Forces would not

be able to break through even the first line of defense.

Therefore, approximately 60% of the time and resources were allocated to fortify this line,

while the second and third lines received about 20% each.

In this regard, we can expect that the forcing of the second line will be faster than the

first.

The occupiers are now bringing reinforcements to the breakthrough area, but sooner or later

these reserves will be exhausted.

Therefore, the transfer of Russian paratroopers from the east is caused not only by the "brewing

southern crisis" of the enemy, but also by the strategic failure of the Russian command.

Currently, the occupiers are losing primarily in terms of time.

To simplify, the Ukrainians are moving in the South faster than the enemy could give

them a problem in the East, even though it costs titanic efforts for the Ukrainian defense

forces.

Why titanic?

Because they lack the artillery support that the Ukrainian Armed Forces have in the South,

and this is forced but logical - in the East, the Ukrainian Armed Forces are holding back

the offensive with limited resources so that they have something to advance with in the

South.

And the steadiness with which they will hold in the east will directly affect the offensive

in the south.