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The war in Ukraine will rewrite
all military textbooks...
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Earlier I emphasized that the war in Ukraine
is unique and there has never been such a war
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in modern history. Unique operations,
unique decisions and unique situations.
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There are many examples of this. Some of them...
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For example, when an aggressor country
with a fleet loses a naval battle to
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a country without a fleet. I can only
remember the Arab-Israeli war of 1948,
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when the Jews sank two Egyptian
warships without having their own fleet.
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Or the aggressor country, which has the most
dangerous and numerous airborne component,
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out of more than 30 airborne operations,
was able to carry out successfully only one.
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But today I would like to talk
about defense and how Ukraine
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has destroyed hardened stereotypes about defense.
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As you know, such a stereotype includes the
statement that to break through the defense
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you need a quantitative advantage of 3 times or
even more than the forces holding the defense.
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In a sense, in 2022, the Ukrainian
defense forces chose exactly this tactic.
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They were able to stop the advance of the Russian
troops by conducting exclusively defensive
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activities in the first weeks of the invasion and
with the numerical and technical-technological
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superiority of the enemy, they not only stopped
it, but also bled it out and threw it off.
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In turn, the current operation in Zaporizhzhya
region completely destroys this stereotype!
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The southern direction, namely
Zaporizhzhya region is held
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by the Russian group of troops
"East", what is its potential?
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-up to 105,000 personnel;
- up to 470 tanks, which
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is only 33% of the required standard equipment;
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-up to 1410 armored fighting vehicles
or 32% of the standard equipment;
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-up to 720 artillery pieces
or 48% of barrel artillery;
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-230 MLRS or 15%.
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I did not just point out the shortfall in
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the standard equipment, but
I'll talk about that later.
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All this mass, I note, without taking
into account the group of troops "Dnepr",
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holding the Left Bank of the
Kherson region, opposes in defense,
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on carefully prepared lines of defense,
the Ukrainian forces three times smaller
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both in terms of personnel and a number of
other ... And yet they are still defeated.
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The first line of defense, the most difficult and
the most extreme, the Ukrainian defense forces
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have already broken through. The Russian
forces have hastily activated reserves,
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started pulling in additional units,
and are unpacking strategic reserves.
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And yet, the AFU is advancing
daily, pushing back the enemy.
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Now, as for the standard equipment.
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These indicators, even with a seemingly
catastrophic shortage, which is comparable
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to the loss of combat capability, are
relatively sufficient for defense.
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But it is the word "relatively" that is important.
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The Russian command understood that
the Zaporizhzhya region could become
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the main theater of military operations, and
therefore feverishly prepared defense lines,
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but fully staff the group of
troops could not. And why? Because
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the Russian military-industrial
complex has no such capability.
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For example, now, in the active phase of
combat operations, they can hardly make
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50% of compensation for artillery losses.
They can compensate up to 20%-30% of air
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defense losses per month, not to mention the full
staffing of units, especially newly formed ones.
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This proves once again that the Russian
army has lost its offensive potential and
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can perform defense functions rather mediocrely.
Therefore, when I keep hearing or reading from
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someone about a large-scale Russian offensive
being prepared, I can only throw up my hands....
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Otherwise, the Ukrainian army has shattered
yet another stereotype about Russia's military
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capabilities. Having more than triple
superiority in defense in almost all
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indicators and impassable defense lines,
the Russian army is not able to hold back
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the offensive of the Ukrainian defense forces
and will not be able to do so in the future.
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And this operation will go
down in the textbooks.....
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