All language subtitles for [English] The REAL Reason Putin is Invading Ukraine [DownSub.com]

- [Reporter] The Russian
invasion of Ukraine.

- Momentum is building for a
war between Ukraine and Russia.

- [Reporter] Tensions
between Russia and the West

are growing rapidly.

- [Reporter] President
Biden considering deploying

thousands of troops to Eastern Europe.

- There are now 100,000 troops

on the Eastern border of Ukraine.

Russia is setting up field
hospitals on this border.

Like this is what preparation
for war looks like.

A legitimate war.

- Ukrainian troops are
watching and waiting,

saying they are preparing for a fight.

- The U.S. has ordered the
families of embassy staff

to leave Ukraine.

Britain has sent all of their
non-essential staff home.

And now the U.S. is sending
tons of weapons and munitions

to Ukraine's army.

And we're even considering deploying

our own troops to the region.

I mean, this thing is heating up.

Meanwhile, Russia and the
West have been in Geneva

and Brussels trying to talk it out,

and sort of getting nowhere.

- The message is very clear.

Should Russia take
further aggressive actions

against Ukraine the costs will be severe

and the consequences serious.

- It's a scary, grim momentum
that is unpredictable.

And the chances of miscalculation

and escalation are growing.

I want to explain what's going on here,

but I want to show you
that this isn't just

typical geopolitical behavior.

Stuff that can just be
explained on the map.

Instead, to understand why
100,000 troops are camped out

on Ukraine's Eastern
border, ready for war,

you have to understand Russia

and how it's been cut down over the ages

from the Slavic empire that
dominated this whole region

to then the Soviet Union,

which was defeated in the nineties.

And what you really
have to understand here

is how that history is transposed

onto the brain of one man.

This guy, Vladimir Putin.

This is a story about regional domination

and struggles between big powers,

but really it's the story about

what Vladimir Putin really wants.

- [Reporter] Russian troops moving swiftly

to take control of
military bases in Crimea.

- [Reporter] Russia has amassed
more than 100,000 troops

and a lot of military hardware

at the border with Ukraine.

(dramatic music)

- Before we go any further,

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Let's dive back in.

Okay. Let's get up to speed
on what's happening here.

And I'm just going to quickly
give you the highlight version

of like the news that's happening,

because I want to get into the juicy part,

which is like why, the
roots of all of this.

So let's go.

A few months ago, Russia started sending

more and more troops to this border.

It's this massive border
between Ukraine and Russia.

They said they were doing
a military exercise,

but the rest of the world was like,

"Yeah, we totally believe
you Russia. Pshaw."

This was right before this big meeting

where North American
and European countries

were coming together to talk about a lot

of different things, like
these countries often do

in these diplomatic summits.

But soon, because of
Russia's aggressive behavior

coming in and setting up 100,000 troops

on the border with Ukraine,

the entire summit turned
into a whole, "W-T-F Russia,

what are you doing on the
border of Ukraine," meeting.

Before the meeting Putin
comes out and says,

"Listen, I have some
demands for the West."

And everyone's like, "Okay,
Russia, what are your demands?

You know, we have like,
COVID-19 right now.

And like, that's like surging.

So like, we don't need your like,

bluster about what your demands are."

And Putin's like, "No,
here's my list of demands."

Putin's demands for the summit were this:

number one, that NATO, which
is this big military alliance

between U.S., Canada, and
Europe stop expanding,

meaning they don't let
any new members in, okay.

So, Russia is like, "No more
new members to your, like,

cool military club that I don't like.

You can't have any more members."

Number two, that NATO
withdraw all of their troops

from anywhere in Eastern Europe.

Basically Putin is saying,

"I can veto any military cooperation

or troops going between countries

that have to do with Eastern Europe,

the place that used to
be the Soviet Union."

Okay, and number three, Putin
demands that America vow

not to protect its
allies in Eastern Europe

with nuclear weapons.

"L-O-L," said all of the other countries,

"You're literally nuts, Vladimir Putin.

Like these are the most
ridiculous demands, ever."

But there he is, Putin,
with these demands.

These very, very aggressive demands.

And he sort of is implying
that if his demands aren't met,

he's going to invade Ukraine.

I mean, it doesn't work like this.

This is not how
international relations work.

You don't just show up and say like,

"I'm not gonna allow other
countries to join your alliance

because it makes me feel uncomfortable."

But what I love about this list of demands

from Vladimir Putin for this summit

is that it gives us a clue

on what Vladimir Putin really wants.

What he's after here.

You read them closely and
you can grasp his intentions.

But to grasp those intentions

you have to understand what NATO is.

and what Russia and Ukraine used to be.

(dramatic music)

Okay, so a while back I made this video

about why Russia is so damn big,

where I explain how modern day
Russia started here in Kiev,

which is actually modern day Ukraine.

In other words, modern
day Russia, as we know it,

has its original roots in Ukraine.

These places grew up together

and they eventually became a part

of the same mega empire
called the Soviet Union.

They were deeply intertwined,

not just in their history
and their culture,

but also in their economy
and their politics.

So it's after World War II,

it's like the '50s, '60s,
'70s, and NATO was formed,

the North Atlantic Treaty Organization.

This was a military alliance
between all of these countries,

that was meant to sort
of deter the Soviet Union

from expanding and taking over the world.

But as we all know, the Soviet Union,

which was Russia and all
of these other countries,

collapsed in 1991.

And all of these Soviet republics,

including Ukraine, became independent,

meaning they were not now a part

of one big block of countries anymore.

But just because the
border's all split up,

it doesn't mean that these
cultural ties actually broke.

Like for example, the
Soviet leader at the time

of the collapse of the Soviet
Union, this guy, Gorbachev,

he was the son of a Ukrainian
mother and a Russian father.

Like he grew up with
his mother singing him

Ukrainian folk songs.

In his mind, Ukraine and
Russia were like one thing.

So there was a major
reluctance to accept Ukraine

as a separate thing from Russia.

In so many ways, they are one.

There was another Russian at the time

who did not accept this new division.

This young intelligence
officer, Vladimir Putin,

who was starting to rise up in the ranks

of post-Soviet Russia.

There's this amazing quote from 2005

where Putin is giving this
state-of-the-union-like address,

where Putin declares the
collapse of the Soviet Union,

quote, "The greatest
catastrophe of the 20th century.

And as for the Russian people,
it became a genuine tragedy.

Tens of millions of fellow
citizens and countrymen

found themselves beyond the
fringes of Russian territory."

Do you see how he frames this?

The Soviet Union were all
one people in his mind.

And after it collapsed,
all of these people

who are a part of the
motherland were now outside

of the fringes or the
boundaries of Russian territory.

First off, fact check.

Greatest catastrophe of the 20th century?

Like, do you remember what else happened

in the 20th century, Vladimir?

(ominous music)

Putin's worry about the
collapse of this one people

starts to get way worse
when the West, his enemy,

starts showing up to his neighborhood

to all these ex-Soviet countries
that are now independent.

The West starts selling their ideology

of democracy and capitalism
and inviting them

to join their military
alliance called NATO.

And guess what?

These countries are totally buying it.

All these ex-Soviet countries
are now joining NATO.

And some of them, the EU.

And Putin is hating this.

He's like not only did
the Soviet Union divide

and all of these people are now outside

of the Russia motherland,

but now they're being
persuaded by the West

to join their military alliance.

This is terrible news.

Over the years, this continues to happen,

while Putin himself starts to chip away

at Russian institutions,
making them weaker and weaker.

He's silencing his rivals

and he's consolidating power in himself.

(triumphant music)

And in the past few years,

he's effectively silenced
anyone who can challenge him;

any institution, any court,

or any political rival
have all been silenced.

It's been decades since
the Soviet Union fell,

but as Putin gains more power,

he still sees the region through the lens

of the old Cold War,
Soviet, Slavic empire view.

He sees this region as one big block

that has been torn
apart by outside forces.

"The greatest catastrophe
of the 20th century."

And the worst situation of all of these,

according to Putin, is Ukraine,

which was like the gem
of the Soviet Union.

There was tons of cultural heritage.

Again, Russia sort of started in Ukraine,

not to mention it was a very populous

and industrious, resource-rich place.

And over the years Ukraine
has been drifting west.

It hasn't joined NATO
yet, but more and more,

it's been electing pro-Western presidents.

It's been flirting with
membership in NATO.

It's becoming less and less attached

to the Russian heritage
that Putin so adores.

And more than half of Ukrainians say

that they'd be down to join the EU.

64% of them say that it
would be cool joining NATO.

But Putin can't handle
this. He is in total denial.

Like an ex-boyfriend who
handle his ex-girlfriend

starting to date someone else,

Putin can't let Ukraine go.

He won't let go.

So for the past decade,

he's been trying to keep the West out

and bring Ukraine back into
the motherland of Russia.

This usually takes the
form of Putin sending

secret soldiers from Russia into Ukraine

to help the people in Ukraine
who want to like separate

from Ukraine and join Russia.

It also takes the form of, oh yeah,

stealing entire parts
of Ukraine for Russia.

- Russian troops moving
swiftly to take control

of military bases in Crimea.

- Like in 2014, Putin just did this.

- To what America is officially calling

a Russian invasion of Ukraine.

- He went down and just
snatched this bit of Ukraine

and folded it into Russia.

So you're starting to
see what's going on here.

Putin's life's work is
to salvage what he calls

the greatest catastrophe
of the 20th century,

the division and the separation

of the Soviet republics from Russia.

So let's get to present day. It's 2022.

Putin is at it again.

And honestly, if you
really want to understand

the mind of Vladimir Putin
and his whole view on this,

you have to read this.

"On the History of Unity of
Russians and Ukrainians,"

by Vladimir Putin.

A blog post that kind of sounds

like a ninth grade history essay.

In this essay, Vladimir Putin argues

that Russia and Ukraine are one people.

He calls them essentially
the same historical

and spiritual space.

Kind of beautiful writing, honestly.

Anyway, he argues that the division

between the two countries is due to quote,

"a deliberate effort by those forces

that have always sought
to undermine our unity."

And that the formula they
use, these outside forces,

is a classic one: divide and rule.

And then he launches
into this super in-depth,

like 10-page argument, as to
every single historical beat

of Ukraine and Russia's history

to make this argument that like,

this is one people and the
division is totally because

of outside powers, i.e. the West.

Okay, but listen, there's this moment

at the end of the post,

that actually kind of hit me in a big way.

He says this, "Just have a
look at Austria and Germany,

or the U.S. and Canada, how
they live next to each other.

Close in ethnic composition, culture,

and in fact, sharing one language,

they remain sovereign states
with their own interests,

with their own foreign policy.

But this does not prevent them

from the closest integration
or allied relations.

They have very conditional,
transparent borders.

And when crossing them
citizens feel at home.

They create families,
study, work, do business.

Incidentally, so do millions
of those born in Ukraine

who now live in Russia.

We see them as our own close people."

I mean, listen, like,

I'm not in support of what Putin is doing,

but like that, it's like a
pretty solid like analogy.

If China suddenly showed
up and started like

coaxing Canada into being
a part of its alliance,

I would be a little bit
like, "What's going on here?"

That's what Putin feels.

And so I kind of get what he means there.

There's a deep heritage and
connection between these people.

And he's seen that falter and dissolve

and he doesn't like it.

He clearly genuinely feels a brotherhood

and this deep heritage connection

with the people of Ukraine.

Okay, okay, okay, okay. Putin, I get it.

Your essay is compelling there at the end.

You're clearly very smart and well-read.

But this does not justify
what you've been up to. Okay?

It doesn't justify sending
100,000 troops to the border

or sending cyber soldiers to sabotage

the Ukrainian government,
or annexing territory,

fueling a conflict that has killed

tens of thousands of
people in Eastern Ukraine.

No. Okay.

No matter how much affection
you feel for Ukrainian heritage

and its connection to
Russia, this is not okay.

Again, it's like the boyfriend

who genuinely loves his girlfriend.

They had a great relationship,

but they broke up and she's
free to see whomever she wants.

But Putin is not ready to let go.

- [Man In Blue Shirt] What
the hell's wrong with you?

I love you, Jessica.

What the hell is wrong with you?

Dude, don't fucking touch me.

I love you.
- Worldstar!

- What is wrong with you?
- Just stop!

- Putin has constructed
his own reality here.

One in which Ukraine is
actually being controlled

by shadowy Western forces

who are holding the
people of Ukraine hostage.

And if that he invades,
it will be a swift victory

because Ukrainians will
accept him with open arms.

The great liberator.

(triumphant music)

Like, this guy's a total romantic.

He's a history buff and a romantic.

And he has a hill to die on here.

And it is liberating the people

who have been taken from
the Russian motherland.

Kind of like the abusive
boyfriend, who's like,

"She actually really loves me,

but it's her annoying friends

who were planting all
these ideas in her head.

That's why she broke up with me."

And it's like, "No, dude, she's over you."

- [Man In Blue Shirt] What
the hell is wrong with you?

I love you, Jessica.

- I mean, maybe this
video should be called

Putin is just like your
abusive ex-boyfriend.

- [Man In Blue Shirt] What
the hell is wrong with you?

I love you, Jessica!

- Worldstar!
- What's wrong with you?

- Okay. So where does this leave us?

It's 2022, Putin is showing
up to these meetings in Europe

to tell them where he stands.

He says, "NATO, you cannot
expand anymore. No new members.

And you need to withdraw all your troops

from Eastern Europe, my neighborhood."

He knows these demands
will never be accepted

because they're ludicrous.

But what he's doing is
showing a false effort to say,

"Well, we tried to
negotiate with the West,

but they didn't want to."

Hence giving a little
bit more justification

to a Russian invasion.

So will Russia invade?
Is there war coming?

Maybe; it's impossible to know

because it's all inside
of the head of this guy.

But, if I were to make the best argument

that war is not coming tomorrow,

I would look at a few things.

Number one, war in Ukraine
would be incredibly costly

for Vladimir Putin.

Russia has a far superior
army to Ukraine's,

but still, Ukraine has a very good army

that is supported by the West

and would give Putin a
pretty bad bloody nose

in any invasion.

Controlling territory in
Ukraine would be very hard.

Ukraine is a giant country.

They would fight back
and it would be very hard

to actually conquer and
take over territory.

Another major point here is
that if Russia invades Ukraine,

this gives NATO new purpose.

If you remember, NATO was
created because of the Cold War,

because the Soviet Union
was big and nuclear powered.

Once the Soviet Union fell,

NATO sort of has been
looking for a new purpose

over the past couple of decades.

If Russia invades Ukraine,

NATO suddenly has a brand
new purpose to unite

and to invest in becoming
more powerful than ever.

Putin knows that.

And it would be very bad news
for him if that happened.

But most importantly,
perhaps the easiest clue

for me to believe that
war isn't coming tomorrow

is the Russian propaganda machine

is not preparing the Russian
people for an invasion.

In 2014, when Russia was about to invade

and take over Crimea,
this part of Ukraine,

there was a barrage of state propaganda

that prepared the Russian people

that this was a justified attack.

So when it happened, it wasn't a surprise

and it felt very normal.

That isn't happening right now in Russia.

At least for now. It may
start happening tomorrow.

But for now, I think Putin
is showing up to the border,

flexing his muscles and showing
the West that he is earnest.

I'm not sure that he's
going to invade tomorrow,

but he very well could.

I mean, read the guy's blog post

and you'll realize that he
is a romantic about this.

He is incredibly idealistic
about the glory days

of the Slavic empires, and
he wants to get it back.

So there is dangerous
momentum towards war.

And the way war works is even
a small little, like, fight,

can turn into the other guy

doing something bigger and crazier.

And then the other person has to respond

with something a little bit bigger.

That's called escalation.

And there's not really a ceiling

to how much that momentum
can spin out of control.

That is why it's so scary
when two nuclear countries

go to war with each other,

because there's kind of no ceiling.

So yeah, it's dangerous. This is scary.

I'm not sure what happens next here,

but the best we can do
is keep an eye on this.

At least for now, we better understand

what Putin really wants
out of all of this.

Thanks for watching.

(dramatic music)

I appreciate everyone for being here.

I'm excited for another year

of a lot of bigger, more
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