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Not so long ago I explained that the bulk
of Russian forces and resources in the South
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are concentrated in such a parallelogram. Its
purpose is to provide escape routes to Crimea.
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But then Chonhar happened... Or rather
a missile or drone strike on one of
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the two main arteries leading to the peninsula.
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As you remember, the main idea of the
"parallelogram" was to ensure the most
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comfortable escape of Russian forces from the
mainland South of Ukraine, in the event of a
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breakthrough of the defense lines by the Ukrainian
army. Such a structure ensured the withdrawal of
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the Russian troops to the Crimea through two
main logistic nodes - Armiansk and Chonhar.
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But, now, "something has happened" at Chonhar,
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and this "something" is probably only a
prelude to a much more serious action.
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In fact, in the near future a group of Russian
troops may be left without one of the escape
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routes, and withdrawing the entire group of
troops through Armiansk is logistical hell.
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Look carefully at the structure
of the parallelogram again.
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You see the same thing I do, right? A chain
is only as strong as its weakest link.
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And this means that a colossal grouping of Russian
troops may be closed down in southern Ukraine,
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an event unparalleled in modern warfare history.
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It is now time for the Russian command to organize
the flight of its entire horde from the South.
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Because any delay could be fatal for them.
I can advise you from me - just run away...
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As for the strike. The Russian media showed the
wreckage of the Storm Shadow missile, which,
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according to them, struck the Chonhar
bridge. There was also another strike
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on the backup bridge over Lake Syvash,
which is next to the Chonhar bridge.
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Judging by the hole in the canvas,
it was something impressive,
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probably a proven HIMARS, but
it doesn't matter what at all.
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Three or four more arrivals like that
and the equipment won't be able to pass.
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A familiar story, don't you think?
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The Kherson scenario comes into play. Gradual
and methodical knocking out of logistics and
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communications, creating such a tension that
they would remove themselves, if possible.
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And there are massive reports in the Russian media
that the Ukrainians have broken through here,
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advanced there. It is impossible to say
yet which of them is true and which is
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imaginary. But fear has many eyes, and
fear is a bad adviser in tactical matters.
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And to the north of Armiansk a new line of
defense is urgently erected. One would think, why?
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If the counterattack has
already "completely failed"?
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That means that they do not rule out a
breakthrough by the AFU into the peninsula.
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But I would like to pay attention
to another point in this context,
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and for this purpose I will
mention the Israeli Air Force.
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When the Israel Defense Forces destroy terrorist
targets in multi-storey buildings, they initially
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launch a blank bolt onto the roof of the
building. This is how they warn of a strike.
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This "knocking" gives the occupants an
opportunity to evacuate within 10-15 minutes.
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Then a missile or bomb is struck. Actually,
what happened in Chonhar should be perceived as
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a "knocking". After all, today the logistics are
destroyed near you, and what will happen tomorrow?
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Thus, while the connection of the peninsula
with the mainland South of Ukraine is cutting
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off, which creates a threat to the
southern grouping of Russian troops,
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the residents of temporarily occupied Crimea have
figuratively the very 10-15 minutes to evacuate.
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For after that, only swimming.
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