All language subtitles for 29-03-2023erfdss

Ukrainian analysts predict a Ukrainian
army counteroffensive in the near future

and the return of much of the territory
currently controlled by the Russian army.

This opinion is also shared by some
American sources. At the same time,

the Ukrainian general staff keeps its plans
secret, just as in the two previous cases when

it carried out similar actions in Kherson
and Kharkov. Who would have doubted it...

Earlier in the previous months, the Russian side
had been gathering forces for an offensive and

attempting to seize territory, mainly in the
Donetsk region. They managed to take complete

control of the town of Soledar, while fierce
fighting is still going on in neighboring Bakhmut.

But in fact, the Russian "conquests" in
recent months are considered paltry in

relation to the resources expended, both
manpower and loss of military equipment.

The failure in the key town of Ugledar is
extremely telling, as it is a railway junction.

By controlling this city, the Russians
could supply their army units located

in Zaporizhzhya Oblast and in the southern
part of Donetsk, Melitopol, and other places.

However, the enemy not only failed to
succeed, but also suffered significant losses.

Much more significant losses were sustained
in Bakhmut, this small town, which, however,

has a special geography - it is
divided by a river and has hills.

From about the beginning of the
siege of Bakhmut last summer,

its capture was rather symbolic, as a show of
strength, since the Russians probably intended

to take the rest of the Donetsk region, moving
from the town of Izyum in the Kharkov region.

However, this entire region was liberated
by the Ukrainian side and today, in addition

to propaganda and strategic planning, Bakhmut
has taken on another meaning for the Russians.

They have lost too much in that city, and
they will have to justify those losses by

continuing to attack the city. Therefore, they are
constantly moving weapons and new soldiers there,

either from the regular army or from the so-called
"Wagner Group." Understanding Russia’s decision to

take the city "at any cost", the Ukrainians
decided to hold it for as long as possible,

rather than moving their units elsewhere to
protect them, as the Americans suggested.

Therefore, today, the Russians are moving to
Bakhmut those forces, which should be located

to the south to retain control over the area
in case of Ukrainians advance to the Azov Sea.

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There are three possible directions
from which the Ukrainians could launch

their future counteroffensive, which are the
Kherson, Zaporizhzhia and Lugansk directions.

But no one can know what plans the general
staff has and what order they will give.

With the great importance of Bakhmut, no
counteroffensive will be attempted from this side.

The main purpose of this counteroffensive
will be to cut off Russian military forces

further south and as far as Crimea
from supply channels. At present,

supplies are provided mainly through the Kerch
Bridge, which the Russians built, but if fighting

intensifies in these areas, the supply needs will
be much greater and cannot be met in this way.

Ukraine has indeed "accumulated" enough
forces, domestically, that it can

immediately use them for a counterattack.
A very important factor is weather, which,

on the one hand, will determine the timing
of the counterattack and, on the other hand,

may be different in the three directions
where the counterattack may manifest itself.

I hesitate to make any predictions as
to when this counterattack may begin,

but some analysts put it in the middle or end of
spring. However, whatever successes the Ukrainians

may have as a result of this counterattack
will not be enough to end the war in 2023.

Despite this, it is important to
keep in mind the possibility of

unexpected events or exceptions,
often referred to as "black swans.