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Counteroffensive by the AFU may begin in several
directions at once or in one direction, only the
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Ukrainian General Staff knows for sure. But it
is necessary to clarify a little the situation
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on the left bank of the Kherson region and the
possibilities in this particular direction...
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And at once I want to note that
the situation there has a direct
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connection with events in the Zaporizhzhya
region and will not develop by itself.
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To date, the group of Russian troops "Dnieper" has
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a numerical composition comparable
to 100 Battalion tactical groups.
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Their potential is 170 tanks, 570 armored fighting
vehicles, 300 artillery pieces and 18 MLRS.
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These units have one of the largest understaffing
in a number of positions in the combat zone.
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But at the same time, this group does not
demonstrate any preparations to retreat.
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Moreover, some units have received
equipment to be re-staffed.
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I remind you that when the occupiers were
preparing to flee from the right bank,
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there were clear signs of this. Despite sending
partially mobilized units to this location,
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which I regularly reported on and which were
nothing more than a cover for retreating regulars.
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Even when almost everyone was talking about some
kind of trap the enemy was preparing, I emphasized
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that they couldn't set any trap, given the
processes that were going on on the right bank.
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But, now I can't say the same about the left
bank - they're not getting ready to run.
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At least not yet.
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The fact is that on the left bank the Russian
forces are simultaneously in relative safety,
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but at the same time as on a volcano. This
paradox is due to the fact that the occupants
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are protected from a counterattack by the
AFU by a natural barrier - the Dnieper River,
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through which it is fraught and
unprofitable to counterattack.
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But with such a natural line
of defense and protection,
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the enemy is on the left bank as in the
palm of their hand for Ukrainian artillery.
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And it is for this reason that some of their
units were withdrawn beyond more than 20
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kilometers from the Dnieper. But that’s
not all, because the logistics are loose.
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Let us imagine some activation of the
AFU in Zaporizhzhia region. And if this
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intensification leads to de-occupation,
for example, Novooleksiivka and the exit
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of the Ukrainian Armed Forces to the
administrative border of the temporarily
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occupied territory of Crimea, the left bank
group will be in an interesting situation.
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In fact, for the Russian troops on the left bank,
the risks of finding themselves in an operational
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encirclement, which will gradually narrow down
to a tactical encirclement, immediately increase.
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This would mean a minimum of
25-30 groups in the encirclement.
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Russian command cannot afford such
losses in the form of prisoners.
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Therefore, the withdrawal of the enemy forces from
the left bank is quite possible, but only when
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there is a serious threat of cutting and fire
control of the M17 and T2202 routes. And this
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is possible only when the issue of liberation of
Zaporizhzhia region will be solved and not before.
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I noted recently that invader tank units continue
to artisanally increase the protection of their
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Main battle tanks, by placing reactive armor
wherever possible, even if it makes no sense.
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But, a new video gives a general idea of
the deliriousness of such enhancements.
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In particular the Russian T-80BV
was clad with the reactive armor
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"Kontakt-1" and at the same time it was
dismantled the infrared spotlight "Luna",
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which was responsible for the
illumination of targets at night.
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In other words, the originally mediocre
capabilities of the tank to at least somehow
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manifest itself at night were replaced
by a build-up of dynamic protection,
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which absolutely does not protect
against modern means of destruction.
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Is this a professional and high-quality
approach? No, it's not. It's panic and fear.
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If you want to keep up with Ukraine's
progress towards victory in the ongoing war,
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then subscribe to my channel
and turn on all notifications.
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Thanks for your support, and
let's stay informed together !
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