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In the Vuhledar area the Russian
troops are in a bad way...
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As expected, they did not withdraw their
units of the 40th and 155th Independent
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Marine Brigades of the Pacific Fleet to restore
combat effectiveness due to the enormous losses,
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but sent them almost to the front
lines to replenish the personnel.
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As expected, without equipment...
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No, the equipment was given, but not
much, but to be exact - very, very little.
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As a result, the main component near Vuhledar
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in the next wave of lemmings will be
the predominance of infantry masses.
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That is, the storming of Vuhledar, expectedly,
more and more resembles the storming of Soledar.
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The only difference is that the Russian generals
do not have tens of thousands of convicts,
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but a limited number of recruits. And a
few more such Vuhledar and waves and the
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next "partial" mobilization
will have to be announced.
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But Putin is in no hurry to issue another decree
about another coven of conscripts by region.
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One way or another, Russia will be
forced to declare a mobilization.
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It doesn't matter what it will be called,
but there will be full compliance with the
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general and repressive ones. Otherwise
they will not be able to hold the front,
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not to mention even imitation of
epic battles for villages and barns.
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Regarding the left bank of Kherson region...
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Yes, indeed, the Russian troops have to
some extent reduced their presence there,
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but it is premature to jump to conclusions
and speak of some kind of gesture of goodwill.
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There are no signs of that.
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So, what is happening?
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After the Russian troops fled from the right bank
of Kherson region, approximately a month later,
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their command began to decrease the
density of their units on the left bank,
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as they are vulnerable to Ukrainian
artillery fire from the right bank.
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The occupiers' positions on the left
bank are under fire up to 20 km inland,
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creating increased risks for maintaining
a large group of troops in this sector,
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which would be an easy target for daily,
routine shelling by Ukrainian artillery.
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To reduce losses, the concentration of forces
and means on the left bank, particularly
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in the 20-kilometer zone along the Dnipro
riverbank, has been decreased. However, there
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is still a contingent in this zone, which can be
conditionally divided into two functional groups.
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The first group consists of defensive units
intended to deter the counteroffensive of
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the Armed Forces of Ukraine in the event
of the crossing of the Dnipro River and
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other incredible scenarios that will
not be used, but which the Russian
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military leadership is panicking about,
as well as to conduct sabotage activities.
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The second group is terrorist. The functions of
these units are to conduct terrorist activities
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and shell the right bank. These are mainly units
with "Grad" multiple rocket launchers that carry
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out chaotic, indiscriminate shelling
of Kherson and the entire right bank.
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Thus, the outflow of Russians from the left bank
is a minimization of losses, but not a sign of
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preparation for a new "gesture of goodwill."
Although the reduction of the presence of
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units may have a negative impact on the defense
capability of this grouping on this foothold...
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But still, events should not be rushed and desired
outcomes should not be taken as reality. Yes,
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a decrease is being observed. No,
no one is planning to run away yet.
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Moreover, if the occupants flee from the
left bank, they will expose the Zaporizhzhia
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grouping from the west, which will result in
the loss of the entire Zaporizhzhia region.
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They are not yet ready for this.
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