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amateur retail traders severely oscillate and struggle between two
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opposing emotions to explain this we're going to look at
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two traders the first trader is retail robbie and he represents the emotion of
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indecisiveness now when you're trading and you're looking at the market have
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you ever felt just a little bit of creeping out and it started to hesitate
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you know wondering should i enter the trade and get involved is it ready yet
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or am i too early maybe i should wait a little bit longer
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for just a bit more confirmation but i don't want to go without me
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or maybe you know have you ever struggled deciding how to manage a trade
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that you were in when you don't know whether to hold the trade or close it
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down and take what profit is currently on the table just in case it reverses
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against you but then what if it continues going in your direction well
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you don't want to miss out on all of that potential profit so you hesitate
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and you agonize over what the right decision is
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because i know how i used to feel that doubt and hesitation all the time
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you know where i was never quite sure what the best decision would be and to
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be honest it just used to make my trading so unnecessarily stressful it
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just was not enjoyable at all and it was starting to make me fall out of love
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with trading really because it's only when you have the benefit of hindsight
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that you then realize when you look back of course i knew i should have bought it
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or i knew i should have sold right there of course i should have held the trade
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it was obvious it was going to keep going why didn't i just leave it alone
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i'm an idiot you know as they say hindsight vision is
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20 20. it's always crystal clear after the fact
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now do you ever experience these emotions in the market you know if you
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have been trading before because the majority of losing traders or even those
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who are just struggling to find consistency they are constantly
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fluctuating between those two poles of indecisiveness about the future and then
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regret over the past and they're constantly hesitating and doubting and
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then being frustrated afterwards when they see the outcome of their decision
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and yet they're indecisive because they're constantly trying to predict the
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future but then they look back on the past with regret
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so think of this as a swinging pendulum from left to right with amateur traders
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constantly swinging back and forth between these emotions in the market so
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how do you stop this back and forth rhythm between hesitation and regret
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how do you transcend these two polls so you can make your decision making as
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objective as possible how do you get to the point you know up
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the top there where you have absolutely zero out or hesitation
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before making a trading decision so that you never feel regret in hindsight after
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you have made that decision regardless of the outcome of the trade
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because down here at the bottom of the diagram this is where the masses play
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the masses of losing traders and up at the top is where the professional
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traders are you know those top 10 the ones who are consistently making
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money year in year out so how do you get up there where you
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have certainty in the market and you never feel doubt hesitation or regret
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how do you separate yourself from the losing masses and become a consistently
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profitable trader do you want to be a hindsight trader for
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the rest of your life you know i've been there thinking
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i knew i should have sold there but you know what it's okay i'll make the right
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decision next time then you're stuck in that cycle and you
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never quite seem to get it right consistently and i'm like creeping doubt
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in your approach that you know you can feel deep down it then never quite goes
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away or do you want unwavering certainty when
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you approach the markets every day now i don't mean certainty and that you're
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gonna win every trade that's a complete fantasy of course
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i'm talking about having the certainty that you are making the correct decision
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every single time with zero doubt or hesitation so how can you be so certain
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that you are making the right decision ahead of time
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well there are two types of trading strategies the first type of strategy is
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called discretionary trading and this is decision based training where the trader
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decides which trades to take based on their own judgment and current market
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conditions so as you can see in the diagram you know from the starting point
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of analyzing a currency pair all the way through to actually executing an order
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you will go through a decision-making process now discretionary traders they
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will make all of these decisions based on their own human judgment
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now the major problem with this approach is that the more discretion you apply to
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your decision making process in the market then the higher the chance of you
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making emotional mistakes so how do you reduce the chance of you
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making those emotional mistakes how do you stop feeling doubt how do you stop
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feeling hesitation and how do you stop feeling regret in your trading so you
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can be in that top 10 percent so you can be a consistently profitable trader well
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if you can replace as many of the individual steps in your decision-making
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process with extremely clear rules-based and mechanical criteria then you will
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drastically reduce the chance of you making an emotional mistake
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now the second type of trading strategy is what's called a mechanical strategy
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which essentially is just rules-based trading so instead of the trader
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deciding which trades to take based on their own you know human judgment
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instead the trading system decides which trades to take regardless of what your
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human bias may think so if you think about you know
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programming your trading strategy into a computer algorithm then you need to give
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it a series of binary questions that only have a yes or no outcome so that
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essentially it follows an if then process
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so an event will occur in the market you will then consult your plan to see if it
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meets your criteria if it takes the first box then you move on to the next
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criteria if it doesn't meet that criteria then you simply do nothing and
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you move on otherwise if it does then you just
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simply work the whole way through until the setup has met all of your minimum
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criteria and then you can just simply execute the trade
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no doubt or hesitation now think of the market of a game like
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pac-man i'm sure you're all pretty familiar with how that works so each of
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these hollow circles they represent a trading decision that you must make to
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progress to the next step you have practically unlimited
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possibilities of getting from point a to point b in the markets there is no map
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it's down to you to choose your path what entry signal are you going to use
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to enter a trade will you wait for a supply and demand zone to form how will
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you define that that zone is valid what type of order will you use to enter the
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market where are you going to place your stop loss how will you manage your trade
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will you leave your stop-loss open or will you move it to break even will you
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trade your stock behind price or sell to take profit order or a combination of
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both if you do try your stop how many pips behind price will you trail it if
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you set a take profit order where will you place it on the next key structure
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level how do you define a key level how do you draw them consistently the same
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way every time how many pips in front of that key level will you set your order
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are you going to scale in where and how will you scale in to add your position
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okay so i think you get the picture you know there are many decisions to make
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when we're trading so it's down to the trader to set their own parameters ahead
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of time with a clearly defined rules-based strategy and this eliminates
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as many of the open-ended possibilities and it gives you that narrow course of
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action to take so you simply make the same decisions over and over and over
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and over again having a mechanical strategy of course
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won't guarantee success on every trade but what it will do is it's going to
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help you to manage your risk minimize your losses and nail down and secure
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your profits and handle unexpected events with decisive action
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which over time will drastically drastically improve your chance of
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success by clearly defining your training
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parameters ahead of time you are establishing a basis for knowing whether
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your strategy and your edge whether it's actually working or not and then you can
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accurately refine and optimize it over time
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so let's look at two different traders the first trader on top they have a
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clearly defined systemized trading plan with very strict rules there is a clear
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set of criteria that they take off to make every single training decision so
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that they make the same set of decisions over and over again now the second
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trader they utilize a much more discretionary approach so they know that
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they have you know a couple of rough styles that they utilize to trade the
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market and within each of those styles and they've got a lot of options open to
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them at each level so they've got many different entry
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confirmations you know just for the same setup it's very open to subjective
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interpretation sometimes they trade from the 50
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fibonacci level sometimes from the 0.618 sometimes they just use an ema if they
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kind of just randomly pick where to place a stop loss of you know where it
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looks pretty safe to place it you know they'll use horizontal support and
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resistance levels but they don't have a fixed systematic process for
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consistently placing them they do not have a consistent mechanical
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method for identifying areas of interest on the chart that they consistently you
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know repeat with accuracy sometimes they'll try to stop other
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times they'll just place a take profit order but they place it in a different
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area every time sometimes you know just manually close
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and exit a trade if it doesn't look right you know whatever that means
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now both of these traders they both experience four losses in a row
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now hitting four losses in a row is perfectly normal and expected even if
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you have a strike rate of 75 which is a really really good strike
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rate it's very likely that these losses are
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just simply part of the probability model playing out
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but if you take four losses in a row how do you actually determine if those
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losses are simply just a part of your probability model or if you had made
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mistakes or just executed bad trades that you should not have taken how do
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you actually determine that now consistently profitable traders we
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have a deep understanding of something called random distribution right and we
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know that the outcome of any individual trade is actually random
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but on a collective basis when you have a larger sample size of trades just the
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exact opposite is true if a large enough number of trades are taken patterns will
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emerge that produce a consistent predictable and statistically reliable
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outcome and that is your true trading edge it's just logical basic math there
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is no way around it do you remember the two layers of
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beliefs that professional traders hold that on the surface they do seem to
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contradict each other and the first layer is the micro level
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remember at this level you have to believe in the uncertainty and the
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unpredictability of the outcome on each individual trade and the second layer is
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that macro level and at this level you have to believe that the outcome over a
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large series of trades taken is relatively certain and predictable
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but here's the major key remember it's the ability to believe in
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the unpredictability of the game at the micro level and simultaneously believing
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in the predictability of the game at the macro level that makes the professional
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trader effective and successful at what they do
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they have learned and completely accepted the fact that they don't know
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what's going to happen next no one does but more importantly they don't need to
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know in order to make money consistently they don't care and that's why they
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don't feel hesitation or doubt in their trading
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so if we go back to our two traders the mechanical and the discretionary trader
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who both just took four losses in a row which trader do you think is going to be
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sweating more which one is starting to panic and doubt their strategy or even
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begin to doubt their own ability who do you think is now more likely to
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be hesitant and make an emotional mistake who is more likely to skip the
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next trade out of fear or take a low probability or even random trade to try
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and make their losses back as soon as possible
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is it going to be the trader who can analyze those four losing trades and
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clearly see if those trades met all of the defined criteria of their strategy
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who can then see that those losses were actually just in fact valid trades that
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are a part of their strategy and therefore those trades are a part of
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their probability model and those losing trades were simply a cost of doing
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business or will the panicking trader be the one
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who has no real idea if those losing trades are a part of their probability
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model or if they were simply just bad trades that should never have been taken
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and those losses could have been completely avoided
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i think it's pretty obvious that discretionary trader with that
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subjective approach is the one who is most likely to be feeling those negative
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emotions and is therefore most likely to make an error next
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now obviously without a reference point based on clearly defined and sound rules
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you have no way to measure the outcome of your trading decisions and therefore
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you have no real idea if things are going along as planned or if there is a
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real reason for concern you need to eliminate the variable that
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is you and the only way to do that is to make
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consistent decisions that can be measured
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now let's put some numbers on the situation so we can see exactly why this
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is such a major issue for losing traders so after those four trades both traders
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are down let's say minus four percent now when the systematic trader looks
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back and they review their trades and then they see that they followed their
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plan perfectly they ticked off every single criteria in their trade plan
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they're gonna have way more confidence to continue to execute with minimal
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emotional interference and they take the next trade which is a five percent
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winner and they see their edge playing out but the discretionary trader they've
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been doubting and hesitating after taking those losses and they can't face
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the pain of another potential loss so they skip their next setup and they miss
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out on the winner now that they see their trade play out
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they're frustrated they missed it but you know they have a bit more confidence
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so they execute the next trade and they catch a two percent win
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now you can see after those six trades the trader with a systemized approach is
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sitting on a net three percent profit while the discretionary trader is down
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minus two percent this is what i see happening again and
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again with you know so many traders who are just struggling to find real
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consistency and stop doing the break even thoughts
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because when the mechanical trader when they review their trades and they look
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back and they see that they follow their plan perfectly
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they're not going to hesitate or doubt their next setup and they're the ones
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who are going to catch their next stream of profitable trades and march onto new
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account equity highs but whilst the discretionary trader
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they're just going to keep digging themselves into a deep drawdown or maybe
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you just continue playing that break even game for years and years never
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really going anywhere wasting their time energy and money
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hesitation kills traders
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once you have a mechanical and a systemized strategy the level of emotion
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that you will feel in the market after just taking a few losses will be
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drastically minimized and you will then be able to execute with ruthless
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decisiveness and extreme clarity no one likes losing obviously right
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but imagine for a second a world in which you do enjoy it
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how is that possible well when you do have a systemized edge
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as long as the losing trades perfectly met your strategy criteria then you know
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that each loss is bringing you one step closer to your next profitable run of
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trades now i used to struggle so badly with
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this before i changed my strategy where i would take a few losing trades but
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then because i didn't have an extremely systemized approach i would start to
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doubt and hesitate my own ability so i would naturally skip trades because you
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know i shouldn't face taking another loss because i wanted to quit my job so
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badly just wanted to become a full-time trader and then every single loss that i
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took each loss felt like a direct threat to my plans to try and escape my nine to
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five but then because i skipped trade setups to avoid that potential pain i
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would then inevitably miss you know those winning trades and then after
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feeling the pain and the fomo of seeing those winning trades play out without me
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i would then revenge trade by you know rushing into poor setups which i'm sure
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you can guess of course would just end up losing me more money so that was
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stuck in this never-ending death loop which was you know feeding off itself
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because i was just so desperate to make it but all i had to do was simply change
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my approach to break out of it not having a proven defined edge is very
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likely the root cause of most losing traders problems
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because if you were playing poker would you bet on a hand if you couldn't see
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your cards of course not why on earth would you do
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that when you you can't see what edge you have you have absolutely no idea
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what probability you have of winning it's just pure gambling with zero edge
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but so many traders in the markets are essentially betting on hands when they
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don't even know what cards they are holding it's insane
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do not be a blind trader because you do not have to be
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having a very discretionary and subjective approach to trading it's
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tough in your psychology it's very easy to second guess any decisions that you
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have to make in the market but it's also extremely hard to accurately test and
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journal your strategy because how can you have any certainty if a trade is
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actually valid or not people can overcomplicate trading but we
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know that the path to success is very clear
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you must have a systemized strategy that you can consistently execute and easily
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test this way that you can prove your edge
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with data and then once you prove it with cold hard data that is the only way
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in which you will have a bulletproof mindset and once you've developed that
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bulletproof mindset you will then not make those emotional mistakes because
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it's only once you cut out those emotional mistakes and those slip ups
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that you will then start to enjoy those consistent results that you desire
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because then you have a sustainable strategy because you're executing the
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same crystal clear setups again and again managing the trade the same way
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every single time and that is when you actually have the
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solid foundation built upon which you are now ready to rapidly scale acquire
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investor capital or you know funding from a prop firm and you can very
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quickly scale to multiple six seven or eight figures the sky truly is the limit
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you know many traders moan that oh it's the lack of capital you know which is
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the reason why they're not having any success but let me ask you this
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if you were given a one million pound training account today
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are you ready to comfortably trade it you know be honest with yourself
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would you be able to confidently risk 10 000 pounds so that's one percent risk on
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a million pound account right would you be able to confidently risk 10 grand on
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the next trade with your current strategy with extreme confidence and
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clarity in your approach because if you're not then you'll never
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be able to scale until you have extreme confidence and clarity in your proven
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edge to be able to eliminate any hesitation
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and doubt when you're trading so that you can act with ruthless decisiveness
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you must have a consistent repeatable and scalable approach so you can snap
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out of the break even dance and start to rapidly compound your growth
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you see all training strategies fit somewhere along the scale
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from 100 discretionary where the trader literally has zero framework but just
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decides with their gut instinct all the way up to 100 mechanical where you can
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literally use an algorithm to execute the strategy for you i personally think
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that the sweet spot for training is around that 70 to 90 mark and this is
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where you will enjoy all of the benefits that we have just discussed from you
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know having that mechanical and sort of very systemized approach but it will
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also allow you to avoid some of the drawbacks of being 100 mechanical
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because you still need a little bit of room for human judgment and it's
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actually that small element of human judgment that is required that actually
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gives us an edge over algorithms and that's why algorithms they tend to you
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know they can work really well in the short term
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but they nearly always eventually blow up unless they are constantly tweaked
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and refined by human input the market is a dynamic environment which is always
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constantly changing so we need to adapt with it
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so how can we make our strategy mechanical well there are four main
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areas that you need to fix first being trade entry the second mean
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stop-loss placement the third being your trade management
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and the fourth being risk management so now we're going to get nice and
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practical and we're going to dive into each of these four areas to kind of look
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at how we can make them more mechanical and systemized so you can start getting
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results so trade entry you must enter the market
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the same way consistently every single time so essentially you know we always
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look to enter on supply and demand zones right okay sounds pretty simple but what
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type of order are you going to use are you going to set a limit order or are
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you going to wait for price to enter the zone and then hit an instant market
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order what time frame are you going to use for
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your entry execution are you always going to use the same
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time frame for entries no matter what say such as the m1 or are you also happy
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to use the 15 seconds you know as well or maybe you just want to use risk
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entries on the m15 zones for example whatever you want to do just make sure
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you define you know which time frames are valid for
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you and if it is more than one and in what circumstance it is valid to use
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another time frame just so you know you're not constantly jumping all over
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the place are you going to only use flip zones or
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are you only going to use structural zones or maybe you're going to use both
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so you're going to use zones that cause flips and brake structure
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does it need to be a sweep zone so does the zone need to take liquidity when it
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was created does the zone need to have inducement in
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front of it does your entry zone need to be in the
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premium if you are selling or does it need to be in the discount if you are
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buying and if so what time frame are you going to use to determine if you are on
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the premium or the discount for example
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you might be trading n15 pois right and 15 zones but you're using the m1 for
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execution within those m15 zones so you might use the m15 range to determine if
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price is in the premium or the discount now when you draw your zones are you
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always going to take the entire buy to sell or sell to buy range or will you
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refine to a pivot or a single candle or even a fractal refinement
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where on the zone are you going to enter will you enter on the distal in the
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front edge of the zone or will you always enter on the eq or will your
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entry depend on how big your subtotal size is instead
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you know you must be as specific as possible
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because there is no other way to be consistent with your approach so just
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make sure that you don't leave any details out
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so the second key area to look at is your stop-loss placement so you need to
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develop a fixed formula for consistent placement
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now there's multiple ways of doing this like anything in training
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but we always place our stop loss behind the supply demand zone that we enter on
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as an absolute minimum but what i would advise is that you
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define the exact number of you know pips that buffer that you want to give your
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stop-loss behind the zone you know just to account for you know spread and
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sometimes if there's slight spikes of the zone um just to make you kind of you
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know consistently do that way every single time so you know it could even
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just be half a pip a pip whatever it obviously will differ on kind of what
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time frame you're on and what pair you trade
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so you can also use a fixed stop loss for each individual pair you trade so
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let's say with you're a donor you know once you've obviously tested your
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strategy um you may find that over a large sample size of trades but actually
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three pips is the most optimal stop-loss size to always use but then maybe for a
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pair like pound yen which is which is typically quite a bit more volatile than
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you're a dollar uh in terms of its average fuel range
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just means in terms of how many pips it moves a day
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you may find that six pips is actually the most optimal surplus size
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so now you have a fixed mechanical consistent way of sizing your trade
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every single time leaving no room for uncertainty or hesitation
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and a final way is just to use a fixed stop loss behind a swing high or the
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swing low so instead of just protecting your stop
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behind you know the entry zone you may also want to cover the actual swing
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point just in case price pushes you know further towards the extremity of the
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zone you might increase your odds of actually
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staying in the position obviously this will probably likely
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sacrifice your wrist to reward a little bit um but it may boost your strike rate
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but just again you know make sure you define how many pips behind the swing
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that you will place it and of course this could differ from pair to pair and
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what time frame you're actually entering on now once you have a fixed method for
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stop plus placement it's obviously going to be far easier on your emotions at
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times where you might only literally just be stopped out by even a micro pip
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before price then reverses in your favor but then instead of looking back in
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hindsight and saying i should have just had a slightly wider stop and then you
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know sitting there counting all of your missed potential profit instead you will
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be assured in your approach because you followed your plan perfectly and
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consistently now of course even if you find you keep
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only just getting stopped out then you know exactly what part of your plan then
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needs refining and optimizing and it makes it really easy to you know adapt
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and improve your strategy because you have that consistent approach that then
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you can look back on and just tweak that little bit right
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and obviously you can't do that when you have a subjective and inconsistent
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approach to to placing your surplus remember we are trying not to be
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hindsight traders so the third area is trade management
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and you know if you could hypothetically only make one area of your trading
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strategy mechanical then this would be it
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now why do i say that well it's because of after working with
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many traders i've seen that a lot of them you know they have the ability to
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pick out and enter really really great trades but what separates out those who
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get you know those great returns are the ones who can consistently manage those
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trades well so once you have entered the trade
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obviously your emotions are going to be pretty high because you now have your
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capital at risk and wherever you know money is involved we tend to make quite
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irrational decisions right as humans so if we have that mechanical management
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strategy where you know we can simply just follow the plan like a robot then
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this can help to eliminate any room for those potential emotional mistakes and
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also you know there's no room to be annoyed if price continues on further
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after you've actually executed your trades and exited because you know that
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you're going to manage the same way every single time
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so it helps you to eliminate that feeling of greed and dissatisfaction in
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the short term because you will see the long term benefits from that consistent
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management approach so what are some of the ways in which we
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can do this well we can use a fixed take profit order based on a risk to reward
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ratio so for example you may trade a fixed rr
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of ten to one where you use no active management so
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you are either stopped out for a full loss or price hits your target or maybe
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you wanna you know move your stop loss to break even only once price has
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reached 5r running profit for example right so you can start to get a little
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bit creative here now the way that you would calculate
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your actual profit target um is you take your stop loss size and then you
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obviously multiply it by whatever your chosen rewards or risk ratio is so let's
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say your stop loss was five pips and then you're targeting 10r
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you would then set your take profit order 50 pips away right 10 times five
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now another way is selling your take profit order on a key level so you can
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target an unmitigated supply and demand zone or maybe a weak swing high or low
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or any obvious liquidity points in the market where we expect price to pull
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back or reverse but again you must have a mechanical way
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for drawing and identifying your key levels on your charts for this to work
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now the other way which is one you know as you guys know i don't really
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recommend personally but you can actively manage your trade by trailing
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your stop-loss behind the swing highs lows and just simply following the trend
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so this way in theory you should be exiting on the the trend change right
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but as always you must be extremely specific
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so how many pips in front of your key level will you set your take profit
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order how many pips behind the swing high or
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low will you trade your stop loss what time frame are your targets going to be
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based on are you targeting the four hour swing higher low or just the m15 for
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example or are you going to use both if you are going to use both then he's
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defined in what situations you are targeting the four hour and when you
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will just use the m15 or if you're using partials how much volume are you going
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to partial at each of those levels
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you know you don't just want to be doing this you know kind of based on your gut
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feeling when you're in the trade you need to have this all laid out and
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written down before you're even looking at the charts to trade each day
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now the final main area to look at is one that i think many traders don't
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really spend too much time considering and that is risk management because
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professional traders they understand random distribution right that no one
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knows the sequence of their winning and losing trades so they always keep their
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risk constant so make sure that you are always using a fixed position sizing you
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know risking the same percentage of your total account balance on each trade
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define how you will scale in will you only do it once the risk of your initial
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position has been removed how much will you risk per day
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you can define this by the max percentage of your total account balance
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and then the same for your total open risk so this is how many trades you will
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have running at one point with stop losses fully open
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so just make sure you define all of these ahead of time and you consistently
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use fixed risk so to summarize if you enter the same
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way every time you use a fixed formula for stop-loss sizing you manage your
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trades like an algorithm and you use fixed position sizing then fixing these
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elements of your training it will allow you to accurately measure and optimize
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your strategy performance only when you have a clearly defined
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strategy can you actually identify the bottleneck and then fix tweak and
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improve your strategy it's how you can adapt to the constantly changing market
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environment and actually stay ahead of your competition in this zero sum game
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if you want consistent results but the market is random then be consistent in
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what you can control and be a slave to your strategy
455
00:29:15,520 --> 00:29:19,440
you don't need to try you don't need to try and predict the
456
00:29:19,440 --> 00:29:23,760
markets you just have to try and be in the markets every time a high
457
00:29:23,760 --> 00:29:29,320
probability trade setup buy your plan is provided48090
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