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Southern bridgehead...
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Despite the speculations now appearingÂ
in open sources that Russian occupants Â
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are preparing for a goodwillÂ
gesture in Zaporizhzhia region, Â
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I cannot share these emotions withÂ
the authors of their re-broadcasts.
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I recall that when the Russians wereÂ
preparing to flee from the right Â
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bank of the Kherson region, I regularlyÂ
pointed to clear signs of this process, Â
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while most talked about some kind of trap andÂ
cunning plan of the occupants for the AFU.
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And in this case, instead of happily confirmingÂ
that the occupiers are preparing escape routes, Â
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I am forced to state that there are no such signs.
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Even what is happening now on the left bank ofÂ
the Kherson region is not an act of goodwill, Â
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but a withdrawal of units in order toÂ
minimize the losses of Russian troops Â
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in the 20-kilometer operating zone of theÂ
artillery of the Ukrainian armed forces.
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But, back to Zaporizhzhia region.
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At present, the total number of Russian troops inÂ
this location has exceeded 20 Battalion tactical Â
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groups, some of which have even been rotated andÂ
renewed their combat readiness. In the immediate Â
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location the preparation of defense lines andÂ
the construction of defense lines are underway.
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One gets the impression that the entire remainingÂ
artillery potential of the Russian troops in the Â
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Southern bridgehead is being concentrated alongÂ
the line of contact in the Zaporizhzhya region. Â
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The concentration is in the directionÂ
of Vasylivka and Tokmak settlements, Â
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while the Russian troops in generalÂ
have a big problem with artillery.
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It lies in the proportional absence of a numberÂ
of barrels for the required coverage front, Â
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as well as in the acute shortage of ammunition, Â
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which does not allow even this limitedÂ
number of units to be used effectively.
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The Russian command is well aware thatÂ
Zaporizhzhia is the key to the liberation Â
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of the South, and to simply wave goodbye,Â
no, they will not do so in this case.
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If only in the near future they willÂ
lose the ability to provide all this Â
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occupation biomass with forces andÂ
means to maintain defense operations. Â
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And the reason for that may beÂ
an unexpected loss of logistics Â
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through the temporarily occupied territoryÂ
of Crimea to the mainland South of Ukraine.
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Such a scenario is quite realistic, butÂ
so far it has not been implemented for Â
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a number of important reasons, but it canÂ
be solved if desired and in the long term. Â
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But at present it is not realized andÂ
it is too early to speak about anything.
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That is why, however much anyone wouldÂ
like it, but within the next month, Â
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probably a month and a half, we will not see anyÂ
serious hints of various gestures of good will in Â
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the Zaporizhzhya direction. On the other hand, theÂ
left bank operating area remains very ambiguous.
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The fact is that while Zaporizhzhya locationÂ
will ripen, it is the left bank of Kherson Â
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region that can attract our attention withÂ
all kinds of operational activity. Moreover, Â
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the Russian troops have less and lessÂ
control over the situation on the territory.
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