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Would you like to inspect the original subtitles? These are the user uploaded subtitles that are being translated: 1 00:05:52,883 --> 00:05:55,683 affects a certain type of currency. Anyways guys take 2 00:05:48,083 --> 00:05:52,883 we are in in the economy and then you can assume how that 3 00:05:45,083 --> 00:05:48,083 and then actually understand what point in the cycle we are 4 00:05:28,683 --> 00:05:32,323 right now what's happening and then of course look at all your 5 00:05:22,523 --> 00:05:25,883 then of course that's when inflation starts to kick in you 6 00:05:17,763 --> 00:05:22,523 economic stimulation lots of economic economic activity and 7 00:05:40,003 --> 00:05:45,083 characteristics obviously I've listed here take note of them 8 00:05:32,323 --> 00:05:35,363 other factors but anyways guys that's it for the economic 9 00:05:13,403 --> 00:05:17,763 mean sorry when there's low interest rates there's a lot of 10 00:05:35,363 --> 00:05:40,003 cycle definitely search this up any graphs you can see the 11 00:05:06,883 --> 00:05:13,403 there's not much economic activity happening and no I 12 00:04:41,483 --> 00:04:44,843 at. Now when there's too much expansion as I've said here as 13 00:04:52,203 --> 00:04:54,843 eventually need to slow down the economic expansion 14 00:05:03,283 --> 00:05:06,883 spectrum when they be when interest rates become low 15 00:04:58,643 --> 00:05:03,283 and then of course the downfall of the economy on the opposite 16 00:04:38,923 --> 00:04:41,483 increasing. So that's something that central banks have to look 17 00:04:35,683 --> 00:04:38,923 employment, everything like that. Inflation is also 18 00:04:03,003 --> 00:04:06,243 overheating is what economists call it. Interest rates are 19 00:03:27,703 --> 00:03:30,503 this is a very dangerous stage that we're going to be looking 20 00:04:16,843 --> 00:04:20,683 to ask you where are these areas? Where are interest rates 21 00:04:09,723 --> 00:04:12,803 the economy grows more and more and accumulates more and more 22 00:04:12,803 --> 00:04:16,843 debt also money supply increases as well. Now if I was 23 00:03:30,503 --> 00:03:34,983 at when the yield curve inverts or you know remains flat that's 24 00:03:53,563 --> 00:03:57,123 economic stimulation. This affects production, GDP, 25 00:04:06,243 --> 00:04:09,723 increased to slow down the economic expansion. Each time 26 00:03:59,963 --> 00:04:03,003 Now when there's too much expansion or so-called 27 00:04:20,683 --> 00:04:24,323 being increased? Where they being decreased? Need to 28 00:03:47,003 --> 00:03:50,003 they become low, more participants are likely to take 29 00:03:50,003 --> 00:03:53,563 loans due to the low interest rates. Therefore increasing 30 00:03:38,623 --> 00:03:43,883 the next few lessons. But how does this consistently happen? 31 00:03:20,363 --> 00:03:24,403 whatever it may be. Hence why businesses are not as active. 32 00:03:34,983 --> 00:03:38,623 when you know we we're going to get into that in more detail in 33 00:03:57,123 --> 00:03:59,963 employment and every other factor that we've looked at. 34 00:03:43,883 --> 00:03:47,003 Now think about it logically in terms of interest rates. When 35 00:03:09,723 --> 00:03:13,443 great either. Interest rates are very high so not much 36 00:02:53,723 --> 00:02:57,683 then of course the yield yield curve remains flat as well. And 37 00:02:57,683 --> 00:03:01,643 then the final stage that we look at is the early recession. 38 00:02:32,583 --> 00:02:37,343 the economy starts to you know to boom again as it once was in 39 00:02:29,703 --> 00:02:32,583 previous stage where we had the earlier recovery this is where 40 00:04:54,843 --> 00:04:58,643 otherwise you'll get factors happening like hyperinflation 41 00:02:37,343 --> 00:02:40,263 the late recovery industrial production is quite low 42 00:02:40,263 --> 00:02:45,103 interest rates start rising as well so you know the central 43 00:04:48,723 --> 00:04:52,203 banks will have to increase interest rates because they 44 00:04:44,843 --> 00:04:48,723 well or also known as overheat that's when bank the central 45 00:02:14,543 --> 00:02:18,543 Sometimes even negative. And then yield curve is very steep 46 00:02:45,103 --> 00:02:48,903 banks they have to they have to take action against all that 47 00:05:25,883 --> 00:05:28,683 just got to understand this cycle where we are in the world 48 00:01:43,883 --> 00:01:48,483 consumer expectations and interest rates but of course 49 00:01:55,783 --> 00:01:59,423 earlier recovery. So that's the point where the economy starts 50 00:01:51,643 --> 00:01:55,783 of them points as well. Then after the recession we get the 51 00:02:23,223 --> 00:02:26,503 late recovery where consumer expectations drop industrial 52 00:02:11,623 --> 00:02:14,543 world you would see between zero and 0. 2 5percent. 53 00:02:03,183 --> 00:02:06,903 rise. Industrial production also increases. Interest rates 54 00:02:18,543 --> 00:02:23,223 at this point as well. Then after that you get the late 55 00:02:06,903 --> 00:02:11,623 are at complete lows so near 0 percent. Usually around the 56 00:01:48,483 --> 00:01:51,643 refer back to this lessons once you have a proper understanding 57 00:04:31,283 --> 00:04:35,683 getting back to how it was you know GDP's increasing, more 58 00:04:27,963 --> 00:04:31,283 at this. This is the expansion stage right? When the economy's 59 00:04:24,323 --> 00:04:27,963 understand that in terms of the economic cycle. So let's look 60 00:03:16,523 --> 00:03:20,363 many people are taking loans. Um you know business loans or 61 00:03:13,443 --> 00:03:16,523 economic activity. Not many people are borrowing money. Not 62 00:03:24,403 --> 00:03:27,703 And then the yield curve flattens or can even invert and 63 00:03:01,643 --> 00:03:05,043 So consumer expectations are at the lowest. Industrial 64 00:03:05,043 --> 00:03:09,723 production is very bad so you can expect GDP to not be too 65 00:02:48,903 --> 00:02:53,723 inflation that is happening in this earlier recovery stage and 66 00:01:27,603 --> 00:01:31,323 usually see in a recession is GDP retracts after two 67 00:01:16,023 --> 00:01:20,023 you know as long as 10 years but typically lasts around five 68 00:01:04,463 --> 00:01:10,823 increasing, everything like that, GDP so an economic cycle 69 00:01:20,023 --> 00:01:24,523 years So the first stage that we're going to be looking at is 70 00:01:02,223 --> 00:01:04,463 economies are always growing, money supplies always 71 00:00:56,323 --> 00:01:02,223 cycle you get a you know growth in the economy hence why 72 00:01:10,823 --> 00:01:16,023 usually lasts around five years more recently they've lasted 73 00:00:51,603 --> 00:00:56,323 positive wave so after every market cycle and every economic 74 00:02:26,503 --> 00:02:29,703 production is neutral or flat so in comparison to the 75 00:01:39,883 --> 00:01:43,883 going to be getting on to yield curves and of course all the 76 00:01:59,423 --> 00:02:03,183 improving with a rising GDP. Then consumer expectations 77 00:00:39,163 --> 00:00:43,403 see you know too much recovery and the economy starts to slow 78 00:00:24,583 --> 00:00:27,703 just as a brief look at the economic cycle this is what you 79 00:00:43,403 --> 00:00:48,243 down again that's early recession so as you can see the 80 00:00:32,203 --> 00:00:35,923 recovery is the bottom in area then of course you get that 81 00:01:24,523 --> 00:01:27,603 a recession. So the characteristics that you'd 82 00:01:35,323 --> 00:01:39,883 expectations drop and yield curves remain normal. So we're 83 00:01:31,323 --> 00:01:35,323 consecutive quarter readings. Interest rates fall. Consumer 84 00:00:48,243 --> 00:00:51,603 economy moves in waves and usually it's a progressive and 85 00:00:15,223 --> 00:00:19,383 comes to fundamentals it's the basic understanding of where we 86 00:00:12,783 --> 00:00:15,223 lessons that you need to understand especially when it 87 00:00:05,743 --> 00:00:08,823 we're going to be looking at the economic cycle and to be 88 00:00:02,083 --> 00:00:05,743 Yes hello everyone welcome to the next video so in this one 89 00:05:55,683 --> 00:05:59,003 care and I'll see you in the next video. 90 00:00:35,923 --> 00:00:39,163 growth the late recovery and then as soon as you start to 91 00:00:27,703 --> 00:00:32,203 usually have first stage would be recession then earlier 92 00:00:19,383 --> 00:00:24,583 are in the economic cycle and what that usually entails so 93 00:00:08,823 --> 00:00:12,783 fair this is honestly one of the most important and core 8668

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