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Freeman: LUCK MAY BE THE MOST
MYSTERIOUS AND CAPRICIOUS FORCE
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00:00:05,700 --> 00:00:08,200
IN THE UNIVERSE.
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00:00:08,200 --> 00:00:10,800
BUT WHAT EXACTLY IS LUCK?
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00:00:10,800 --> 00:00:11,933
[ SLOT MACHINE DINGING ]
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00:00:11,933 --> 00:00:14,567
WHY DO SOME OF US
WIN THE LOTTERY TWICE,
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00:00:14,567 --> 00:00:18,200
WHILE OTHERS HAVE BAD LUCK
FOR NO APPARENT REASON?
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00:00:18,200 --> 00:00:21,367
WHAT'S BEHIND
STRANGE COINCIDENCES
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00:00:21,367 --> 00:00:24,167
AND INCREDIBLE TWISTS OF FATE?
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00:00:24,167 --> 00:00:27,633
DOES RANDOM CHANCE
DECIDE OUR DESTINY?
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00:00:27,633 --> 00:00:32,667
OR IS EVERY ROLL OF THE DICE
PREDETERMINED BY PHYSICS?
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00:00:32,667 --> 00:00:35,467
SCIENTISTS ARE TRYING
TO BEAT THE ODDS --
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00:00:35,467 --> 00:00:40,967
TO PROVE WHETHER OR NOT
LUCK IS REAL.
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00:00:44,467 --> 00:00:49,000
SPACE, TIME, LIFE ITSELF.
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00:00:51,333 --> 00:00:56,067
THE SECRETS OF THE COSMOS
LIE THROUGH THE WORMHOLE.
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00:00:56,067 --> 00:00:59,067
-- Captions by VITAC --
www.vitac.com
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00:00:59,067 --> 00:01:02,167
CAPTIONS PAID FOR BY
DISCOVERY COMMUNICATIONS
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00:01:09,100 --> 00:01:12,933
HOW DID YOU GET
TO WHERE YOU ARE TODAY?
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00:01:12,933 --> 00:01:15,933
MAYBE YOU STRUGGLED
AND WORKED HARD.
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OR MAYBE YOU INHERITED A FORTUNE
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AND NEVER WORKED A DAY
IN YOUR LIFE.
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SOME THINGS
ARE BEYOND OUR CONTROL.
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00:01:24,867 --> 00:01:28,233
DOES THE UNIVERSE
HAVE A PLAN FOR US?
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00:01:28,233 --> 00:01:32,400
OR IS OUR FATE
THE PRODUCT OF RANDOM CHANCE?
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00:01:32,400 --> 00:01:35,133
DO WE MAKE OUR OWN LUCK?
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OR DOES LUCK MAKE US?
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WHEN I WAS GROWING UP,
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KIDS WOULD CARRY
A LUCKY RABBIT'S FOOT.
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FOR SOME REASON, WE BELIEVED
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THESE SEVERED PAWS GRANTED
THEIR BEARERS GOOD FORTUNE.
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[ CROW CAWS ]
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DID THEY WORK?
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WELL, MAYBE.
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00:02:01,867 --> 00:02:06,133
I LOST THAT RABBIT'S FOOT
LONG AGO
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00:02:06,133 --> 00:02:09,600
AND MY BELIEF IN LUCKY CHARMS.
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00:02:09,600 --> 00:02:14,633
BUT PERHAPS MY YOUNGER SELF
WAS ONTO SOMETHING.
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00:02:17,667 --> 00:02:19,933
GO TO A CASINO, AND YOU'LL SEE
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00:02:19,933 --> 00:02:22,267
ANY NUMBER
OF SUPERSTITIOUS RITUALS
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PERFORMED BY PLAYERS
HOPING FOR GOOD LUCK.
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00:02:25,633 --> 00:02:28,833
EVERYONE HAS A STRATEGY.
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FIRST, I DO A DER VOGHORMIA,
WHICH IS AN ARMENIAN PRAYER,
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AND THEN I PLAY
MY SON'S BIRTH NUMBERS.
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THE CHIPS ALL HAVE TO
FACE UP THE SAME WAY.
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Freeman:
RITUALS OF GOOD LUCK DEVELOP
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BECAUSE WE BELIEVE
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THAT SOMETHING WE DO
CAN INFLUENCE CHANCE.
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SALLY LINKENAUGER,
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A LECTURER IN PSYCHOLOGY
AT LANCASTER UNIVERSITY,
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SUSPECTS BELIEVING YOU'RE LUCKY
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00:03:01,767 --> 00:03:05,367
ACTUALLY CHANGES THE WAY
YOU PLAY.
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SHE'S CONDUCTING
A SERIES OF EXPERIMENTS
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00:03:09,067 --> 00:03:12,067
TO TEST HER HYPOTHESIS.
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00:03:12,067 --> 00:03:14,433
SO, WHAT WE DID
IS WE RECRUITED PEOPLE
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WHO PLAYED GOLF
ON A REGULAR BASIS,
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AND WE TOLD HALF OF THEM
THEY WERE USING A PUTTER
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THAT HAD BELONGED
TO A FAMOUS GOLFER.
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00:03:21,767 --> 00:03:25,067
SO, THIS IS ACTUALLY
BEN CURTIS' PUTTER.
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00:03:25,067 --> 00:03:28,867
HE'S A PROFESSIONAL GOLFER WHO
WON THE BRITISH OPEN IN 2003.
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SO, I'M GONNA HAVE YOU
TAKE 10 PUTTS
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00:03:30,133 --> 00:03:32,500
AND WE'LL SEE HOW YOU DO.
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00:03:36,400 --> 00:03:39,933
Freeman: THE OTHER GOLFERS
HEAR A DIFFERENT STORY.
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00:03:39,933 --> 00:03:41,833
ALL RIGHT, SO,
THIS IS A REALLY NICE PUTTER.
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00:03:41,833 --> 00:03:44,067
I'D LIKE YOU TO USE IT
TO TAKE ABOUT 10 PUTTS,
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00:03:44,067 --> 00:03:46,400
AND WE'LL SEE HOW YOU DO.
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00:03:47,500 --> 00:03:50,500
AS YOU'D EXPECT
WITH ANY RANDOM GROUP,
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00:03:50,500 --> 00:03:53,067
SOME DO BETTER THAN OTHERS.
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00:03:53,067 --> 00:03:56,567
BUT AFTER DOZENS OF TRIALS,
A PATTERN EMERGES.
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00:03:56,567 --> 00:04:00,667
Linkenauger:
SO, ONCE THEY STARTED PUTTING,
THE INDIVIDUALS THAT THOUGHT
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00:04:00,667 --> 00:04:02,600
THEY WERE USING
BEN CURTIS' PUTTER
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00:04:02,600 --> 00:04:05,967
MADE ABOUT A PUTT AND A HALF
MORE OUT OF 10 PUTTS
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00:04:05,967 --> 00:04:08,967
THAN THE GROUP THAT THOUGHT THEY
WERE JUST USING A NICE PUTTER.
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00:04:10,967 --> 00:04:14,400
Freeman:
THE GOLF CLUB ISN'T LUCKY.
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WHAT'S REAL
IS THE PLAYER'S BELIEF
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00:04:17,233 --> 00:04:19,600
IN WHETHER OR NOT
THE CLUB IS LUCKY.
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00:04:19,600 --> 00:04:22,900
SALLY SUSPECTS
THIS KIND OF SUPERSTITION
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00:04:22,900 --> 00:04:26,667
HELPS PEOPLE COPE WITH CHAOTIC
OR STRESSFUL SITUATIONS.
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00:04:26,667 --> 00:04:30,167
Linkenauger:
THERE'S KIND OF A SWEET SPOT IN
TERMS OF THE AMOUNT OF PRESSURE
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00:04:30,167 --> 00:04:32,700
THAT YOU NEED IN ORDER TO
PERFORM A TASK MOST EFFICIENTLY.
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00:04:32,700 --> 00:04:34,533
IF YOU HAVE A SMALL AMOUNT
OF PRESSURE,
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00:04:34,533 --> 00:04:37,067
IT JUST MEANS YOU REALLY DON'T
CARE, SO YOU DON'T PERFORM WELL.
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00:04:37,067 --> 00:04:39,233
TOO MUCH PRESSURE,
YOU FREEZE UP.
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00:04:39,233 --> 00:04:40,733
SO YOU WANT TO HAVE THE PERFECT,
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00:04:40,733 --> 00:04:42,800
KIND OF A SWEET-SPOT AMOUNT
OF PRESSURE,
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00:04:42,800 --> 00:04:44,600
AND WHEN YOU'RE PERFORMING
A TASK
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00:04:44,600 --> 00:04:46,067
AND PEOPLE ARE WATCHING YOU,
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00:04:46,067 --> 00:04:49,133
PEOPLE PUT A LOT OF PRESSURE
ON THEMSELVES TO PLAY WELL.
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00:04:49,133 --> 00:04:51,700
Freeman: BUT THAT PRESSURE
IS LESS DEBILITATING
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00:04:51,700 --> 00:04:55,200
WHEN A PLAYER IS HOLDING
A LUCKY PUTTER.
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00:04:55,200 --> 00:04:57,167
WE THINK
THAT WHEN THEY'RE PUTTING,
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00:04:57,167 --> 00:05:00,167
THEY'RE OFFLOADING SOME
OF THIS PRESSURE THAT THEY FEEL.
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00:05:00,167 --> 00:05:02,600
THIS PUTTER IS GONNA DO
SOME OF THE WORK FOR THEM.
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00:05:02,600 --> 00:05:04,367
IT'S NOT ALL ON THEM.
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00:05:04,367 --> 00:05:05,700
AND THAT RELEASE IN PRESSURE
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00:05:05,700 --> 00:05:08,967
KIND OF ALLOWS THEM
TO PERFORM A BIT BETTER.
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00:05:08,967 --> 00:05:11,533
Freeman:
SALLY SUSPECTS A BELIEF IN LUCK
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00:05:11,533 --> 00:05:14,333
DOES MORE
THAN JUST BOOST CONFIDENCE --
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IT CHANGES PERCEPTION.
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00:05:18,967 --> 00:05:22,633
IN HER LAB,
SALLY ASKS THE GOLFERS
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00:05:22,633 --> 00:05:25,800
TO DRAW THE SIZE OF THE HOLE.
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00:05:25,800 --> 00:05:28,200
SO, THIS IS THE ACTUAL SIZE
OF THE GOLF HOLE.
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00:05:28,200 --> 00:05:29,467
ALL THE GOLFERS THINK
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00:05:29,467 --> 00:05:32,167
THAT THE HOLE LOOKS SMALLER
THAN IT ACTUALLY IS.
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00:05:32,167 --> 00:05:35,167
HOWEVER, INDIVIDUALS WHO WERE
USING BEN CURTIS' PUTTER
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00:05:35,167 --> 00:05:37,833
THOUGHT THE GOLF HOLE
LOOKED LARGER.
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00:05:37,833 --> 00:05:41,867
Freeman: ON AVERAGE, THE GOLFERS
WITH AN ORDINARY CLUB
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00:05:41,867 --> 00:05:44,667
SEE THE HOLE
AS BEING 11% SMALLER
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00:05:44,667 --> 00:05:46,067
AND HARDER TO HIT
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00:05:46,067 --> 00:05:49,500
THAN THE GOLFERS WITH
THE SO-CALLED "LUCKY" PUTTER.
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00:05:54,867 --> 00:05:58,300
IS LUCK ALL IN THE MIND?
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00:05:58,300 --> 00:06:01,800
Linkenauger: CONFIDENCE IS A BIG
PART OF SUCCEEDING, I THINK,
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00:06:01,800 --> 00:06:03,500
IN ANYTHING THAT YOU DO,
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00:06:03,500 --> 00:06:05,533
AND IT IS POSSIBLE
THAT USING THIS CLUB
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00:06:05,533 --> 00:06:07,733
MADE PEOPLE MORE CONFIDENT
IN THEIR PLAYING.
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00:06:07,733 --> 00:06:10,067
I WOULDN'T NECESSARILY
CALL THAT LUCK.
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00:06:10,067 --> 00:06:11,400
I WOULD CALL IT
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00:06:11,400 --> 00:06:13,500
HANDLING OUR EMOTIONS
AND HANDLING OUR ANXIETY
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00:06:13,500 --> 00:06:14,800
AND THE PRESSURE THAT WE FEEL
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00:06:14,800 --> 00:06:17,300
WHEN WE ARE PERFORMING
THESE ACTIONS
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00:06:17,300 --> 00:06:20,167
IN A WAY
THAT'S MANAGEABLE FOR US.
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00:06:27,167 --> 00:06:30,500
Freeman: BUT ONE MAN THINKS
BELIEVING YOU ARE LUCKY
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00:06:30,500 --> 00:06:33,233
WILL ONLY GET YOU SO FAR.
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00:06:34,800 --> 00:06:38,633
A PROFESSOR OF LAW
AT NORTHWESTERN UNIVERSITY
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00:06:38,633 --> 00:06:41,100
AND A MASTER STATISTICIAN,
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00:06:41,100 --> 00:06:46,200
JAY KOEHLER SEES EVERYTHING
AS VARIATIONS ON THE MEAN.
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00:06:46,200 --> 00:06:49,900
THE "MEAN" IS ANOTHER WORD
FOR THE "AVERAGE."
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00:06:49,900 --> 00:06:55,167
A STAR ATHLETE HAS GOOD DAYS
AND BAD, BUT IT EVENS OUT.
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00:06:55,167 --> 00:06:56,967
FOR EXAMPLE, A BASKETBALL PLAYER
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00:06:56,967 --> 00:06:59,700
MIGHT BE A 33%
3-POINT SHOOTER.
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00:06:59,700 --> 00:07:03,433
IF HE'S VERY GOOD, HE MIGHT BE
A 45% 3-POINT SHOOTER,
129
00:07:03,433 --> 00:07:08,333
BUT ANY GIVEN DAY, THE PLAYER
MIGHT BE SHOOTING MORE LIKE 50%
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00:07:08,333 --> 00:07:10,100
OR MIGHT BE MORE LIKE 35%.
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00:07:10,100 --> 00:07:12,367
NOTHING UNUSUAL IS GOING ON.
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00:07:12,367 --> 00:07:14,767
THE PLAYER IS JUST
BOUNCING AROUND HIS MEAN.
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00:07:16,567 --> 00:07:18,233
Freeman:
BUT WHAT'S HAPPENING
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00:07:18,233 --> 00:07:20,833
WHEN A PLAYER APPEARS
TO HAVE A HOT HAND --
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00:07:20,833 --> 00:07:24,300
A SPECTACULARLY GOOD RUN
OF PLAY?
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00:07:24,300 --> 00:07:28,133
IS SOMETHING SUPERNATURAL
GOING ON?
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00:07:28,133 --> 00:07:30,533
Koehler:
THE HOT HAND IS A PHENOMENON
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00:07:30,533 --> 00:07:32,833
WHICH TEMPORARILY ELEVATES
HIS LEVEL OF PLAY
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00:07:32,833 --> 00:07:35,200
FOLLOWING A STRING OF SUCCESSES.
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00:07:35,200 --> 00:07:37,600
YOU MIGHT HAVE A PLAYER
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00:07:37,600 --> 00:07:41,100
WHO MAKES SEVEN 3-POINT SHOTS
IN A ROW.
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00:07:41,100 --> 00:07:44,567
AND SO AN OBSERVER,
AND MAYBE THE PLAYER HIMSELF,
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00:07:44,567 --> 00:07:46,667
MIGHT SAY HE'S "HOT."
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00:07:46,667 --> 00:07:50,700
BUT THE QUESTION IS, IS ANYTHING
EXTRAORDINARY REALLY GOING ON?
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00:07:50,700 --> 00:07:55,533
IS HE NOW A 70% OR 80%
OR EVEN 90% 3-POINT SHOOTER?
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00:07:55,533 --> 00:07:57,433
AND THE ANSWER IS NO.
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00:07:57,433 --> 00:07:59,500
Freeman: JAY RAN THE NUMBERS
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00:07:59,500 --> 00:08:02,200
ON THE NBA's BEST
3-POINT SHOOTERS,
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00:08:02,200 --> 00:08:06,167
LOOKING FOR PROOF
OF THE HOT HAND.
150
00:08:06,167 --> 00:08:08,067
WHAT WE FOUND WAS THAT
151
00:08:08,067 --> 00:08:11,733
THE NUMBER OF STREAKS
THAT WE OBSERVE --
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00:08:11,733 --> 00:08:14,067
THREE, FOUR, FIVE,
SIX, SEVEN SHOTS IN A ROW --
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00:08:14,067 --> 00:08:18,267
WAS PRETTY MUCH WHAT YOU'D
EXPECT BY CHANCE ALONE, OVERALL.
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00:08:18,267 --> 00:08:22,533
AND WE DIDN'T SEE ANY EVIDENCE
OF HOTNESS OR COLDNESS.
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00:08:26,200 --> 00:08:27,833
Freeman:
CHAMPIONSHIP ATHLETES,
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00:08:27,833 --> 00:08:30,533
LIKE THESE TWO
NORTHWESTERN STARS,
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00:08:30,533 --> 00:08:33,833
PLAY AT A MUCH HIGHER LEVEL
THAN ORDINARY PEOPLE,
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00:08:33,833 --> 00:08:35,767
AND THEY CONSISTENTLY PERFORM
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00:08:35,767 --> 00:08:38,533
NEAR THE PEAK
OF THEIR ABILITIES.
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00:08:38,533 --> 00:08:40,900
LUCK ISN'T MUCH OF A FACTOR.
161
00:08:40,900 --> 00:08:43,233
ON AVERAGE, A 50% SHOOTER
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00:08:43,233 --> 00:08:46,200
WILL MAKE
ABOUT HALF OF HIS SHOTS.
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00:08:46,200 --> 00:08:51,633
TO JAY, THIS IS PROOF
THAT HOT STREAKS ARE ILLUSIONS.
164
00:08:53,100 --> 00:08:56,567
OTHER STATISTICIANS HAVE RUN
SIMILAR STUDIES ON OTHER GAMES
165
00:08:56,567 --> 00:09:00,067
AND FOUND THE SAME RESULT.
166
00:09:00,067 --> 00:09:05,733
IF A PLAYER SHOOTS ABOUT 50%
OF HIS FREE THROWS OVERALL,
167
00:09:05,733 --> 00:09:07,667
THEN FOR HIM,
SINKING A FREE THROW
168
00:09:07,667 --> 00:09:10,300
IS LIKE FLIPPING A COIN.
169
00:09:11,700 --> 00:09:14,067
Koehler: TO ILLUSTRATE SOME
OF THE POINTS WE'D LIKE TO MAKE,
170
00:09:14,067 --> 00:09:16,633
WE'RE GONNA PERFORM A LITTLE
COIN-TOSSING EXPERIMENT.
171
00:09:16,633 --> 00:09:19,100
REGGIE IS FLIPPING THE COIN
100 TIMES,
172
00:09:19,100 --> 00:09:21,100
AND AUSTIN'S RECORDING
THE OUTCOMES.
173
00:09:21,100 --> 00:09:24,967
Freeman: THE FLIPPING
SEEMS PRETTY RANDOM,
174
00:09:24,967 --> 00:09:28,633
BUT THEN REGGIE FLIPS
SEVEN "HEADS" IN A ROW.
175
00:09:28,633 --> 00:09:31,833
WHAT ARE THE ODDS OF THAT?
176
00:09:31,833 --> 00:09:33,900
Koehler: SEVEN "HEADS" IN A ROW
SOUNDS INCREDIBLE,
177
00:09:33,900 --> 00:09:35,933
BUT REMEMBER,
THE SEVEN "HEADS" IN A ROW
178
00:09:35,933 --> 00:09:40,600
OCCURRED IN A LARGER CONTEXT --
THE CONTEXT OF 100 COIN FLIPS.
179
00:09:40,600 --> 00:09:44,900
Freeman: THE MORE YOU FLIP, THE
BETTER THE ODDS OF A HOT STREAK.
180
00:09:44,900 --> 00:09:47,067
Koehler: IF WE ONLY FLIP
THE COIN 10 TIMES,
181
00:09:47,067 --> 00:09:49,100
THE CHANCE OF GETTING
SEVEN "HEADS" IN A ROW
182
00:09:49,100 --> 00:09:51,133
WOULD BE SOMEWHERE AROUND 2%.
183
00:09:51,133 --> 00:09:53,267
BUT WE FLIPPED THE COIN
100 TIMES,
184
00:09:53,267 --> 00:09:54,900
AND THE CHANCE OF GETTING
SEVEN "HEADS" IN A ROW
185
00:09:54,900 --> 00:10:00,567
OUT OF 100 FLIPS IS SOMEWHERE
BETWEEN 31% AND 32%.
186
00:10:02,000 --> 00:10:05,167
Freeman: IT SOUNDS
COMPLETELY COUNTERINTUITIVE,
187
00:10:05,167 --> 00:10:08,067
BUT LUCKY STREAKS ARE NOT LUCKY.
188
00:10:08,067 --> 00:10:10,767
THEY ARE STATISTICALLY LIKELY.
189
00:10:10,767 --> 00:10:14,233
WE NOTICE PATTERNS
THAT SEEM UNUSUAL --
190
00:10:14,233 --> 00:10:18,767
FOR INSTANCE, A STAR PLAYER
MAKING FOUR SHOTS IN A ROW.
191
00:10:18,767 --> 00:10:20,267
BUT WE FAIL TO NOTICE
192
00:10:20,267 --> 00:10:23,400
HE MISSES THE 5th SHOT,
MAKES THE 6th,
193
00:10:23,400 --> 00:10:27,733
MISSES THE 7th,
MAKES THE 8th AND 9th.
194
00:10:27,733 --> 00:10:30,300
THESE LIKELY STREAKS CAN BE SEEN
195
00:10:30,300 --> 00:10:33,333
IN EVERY
PERFORMANCE-BASED FIELD,
196
00:10:33,333 --> 00:10:36,067
FROM SPORTS TO SALES
TO STOCK TRADING.
197
00:10:36,067 --> 00:10:41,567
IF LAST YEAR WAS GREAT,
NEXT YEAR MAY STINK.
198
00:10:41,567 --> 00:10:44,000
WHAT APPEARS
TO BE A LUCKY STREAK
199
00:10:44,000 --> 00:10:48,267
IS ONLY A FAILURE
TO TAKE A BIG ENOUGH SAMPLE.
200
00:10:48,267 --> 00:10:51,833
AND THIS, JAY SAYS, IS WHY
201
00:10:51,833 --> 00:10:55,567
YOU SHOULDN'T FEEL TOO PLEASED
WITH YOUR SUCCESSES
202
00:10:55,567 --> 00:10:59,233
OR TERRIBLE ABOUT YOUR FAILURES.
203
00:11:00,500 --> 00:11:03,500
Koehler: SO, EVEN WHEN SOMETHING
IS LIKELY TO OCCUR,
204
00:11:03,500 --> 00:11:07,533
CHANCE MAY INTERVENE AND
MAY CAUSE THE OPPOSITE TO OCCUR.
205
00:11:09,067 --> 00:11:14,900
Freeman: WHAT'S IMPORTANT,
JAY THINKS, IS TO KEEP TRYING.
206
00:11:14,900 --> 00:11:18,267
Koehler: ONE FACTOR
THAT IS UNDER OUR CONTROL
207
00:11:18,267 --> 00:11:19,867
IS HOW MANY ATTEMPTS WE MAKE --
208
00:11:19,867 --> 00:11:22,067
HOW MANY TIMES
WE TRY TO DO SOMETHING --
209
00:11:22,067 --> 00:11:23,867
HOW MANY TIMES WE TAKE A SHOT,
210
00:11:23,867 --> 00:11:26,167
HOW MANY TIMES
WE ASK THE GIRL OUT.
211
00:11:26,167 --> 00:11:29,967
WE HAVE TO BE WILLING TO RISK
FAILURE IN ORDER TO SUCCEED.
212
00:11:29,967 --> 00:11:33,400
Freeman: BUT SOMETIMES,
NO MATTER WHAT WE DO,
213
00:11:33,400 --> 00:11:36,233
THE UNIVERSE SEEMS TO HAVE
OTHER PLANS.
214
00:11:36,233 --> 00:11:39,633
HOW DO WE EXPLAIN
THE UNEXPLAINABLE --
215
00:11:39,633 --> 00:11:44,067
THE ASTONISHING COINCIDENCES
AND INCREDIBLE BITS OF LUCK?
216
00:11:44,067 --> 00:11:47,800
IS SOME HIDDEN FORCE
GUIDING OUR LIVES?
217
00:11:51,400 --> 00:11:54,267
GREEK MYTHOLOGY TELLS
OF THE THREE FATES --
218
00:11:54,267 --> 00:11:57,300
ONE GODDESS SPINS
THE THREAD OF LIFE,
219
00:11:57,300 --> 00:11:59,067
ANOTHER MEASURES IT,
220
00:11:59,067 --> 00:12:02,467
AND THE THIRD CUTS IT SHORT.
221
00:12:02,467 --> 00:12:04,367
MAYBE THAT'S AS GOOD A WAY
AS ANY
222
00:12:04,367 --> 00:12:08,467
TO EXPLAIN THE TWISTS OF FATE
AND RANDOM COINCIDENCE
223
00:12:08,467 --> 00:12:11,167
THAT RULE OUR LIVES.
224
00:12:11,167 --> 00:12:13,200
WE HAVE TO SEEK MEANING
225
00:12:13,200 --> 00:12:18,867
OR ELSE LIVE BY THE DOCTRINE
"HEY, STUFF HAPPENS."
226
00:12:21,367 --> 00:12:23,967
ON A SUMMER DAY IN 2001,
227
00:12:23,967 --> 00:12:26,700
10-YEAR-OLD LAURA BUXTON
228
00:12:26,700 --> 00:12:29,267
WROTE HER NAME AND ADDRESS
ON A BALLOON
229
00:12:29,267 --> 00:12:32,167
AND LET IT GO
IN HER FRONT GARDEN.
230
00:12:32,167 --> 00:12:37,367
THE BALLOON BLEW 140 MILES
ACROSS ENGLAND BEFORE IT LANDED.
231
00:12:37,367 --> 00:12:40,967
A FARMER FOUND IT
AND WAS SURPRISED TO READ ON IT
232
00:12:40,967 --> 00:12:44,067
THE NAME
OF HIS NEXT-DOOR NEIGHBOR --
233
00:12:44,067 --> 00:12:48,067
ANOTHER GIRL NAMED LAURA BUXTON.
234
00:12:48,067 --> 00:12:52,200
A LUCKY COINCIDENCE?
OR WAS IT MEANT TO BE?
235
00:12:54,467 --> 00:12:57,167
PROFESSOR TOM GRIFFITHS
IS THE DIRECTOR
236
00:12:57,167 --> 00:13:02,300
OF THE COMPUTATIONAL COGNITIVE
SCIENCE LAB AT U.C. BERKELEY.
237
00:13:02,300 --> 00:13:05,200
TO TOM, THE LAURA BUXTON STORY
238
00:13:05,200 --> 00:13:07,800
ILLUSTRATES THE NATURAL
STRENGTHS AND WEAKNESSES
239
00:13:07,800 --> 00:13:10,267
OF HUMAN REASON.
240
00:13:10,267 --> 00:13:12,667
IF YOU ASK SOMEBODY, "HOW LIKELY
IS IT THAT SOMETHING HAPPENS?"
241
00:13:12,667 --> 00:13:14,767
THAT'S SOMETHING THAT THEY'RE
NOT VERY GOOD AT ANSWERING.
242
00:13:14,767 --> 00:13:17,633
PEOPLE ARE BETTER
AT SOLVING PROBLEMS
243
00:13:17,633 --> 00:13:20,600
WHERE YOU'VE GOT SOME DATA
AND YOU HAVE TO MAKE A LEAP
THAT GOES BEYOND THOSE DATA,
244
00:13:20,600 --> 00:13:21,867
AND YOU HAVE TO FIGURE IT OUT
245
00:13:21,867 --> 00:13:23,933
BASED ON THE INFORMATION
THAT YOU'VE GOT.
246
00:13:23,933 --> 00:13:26,467
Freeman: HUMANS ARE GOOD
247
00:13:26,467 --> 00:13:28,800
AT HEARING A FEW DETAILS
ABOUT AN EVENT
248
00:13:28,800 --> 00:13:31,067
AND BUILDING A STORY
AROUND THEM.
249
00:13:31,067 --> 00:13:35,267
WE ARE LESS ADEPT
AT GUESSING PROBABILITIES --
250
00:13:35,267 --> 00:13:39,333
THE ODDS OF HOW LIKELY IT IS
AN EVENT WILL OCCUR.
251
00:13:39,333 --> 00:13:41,633
FOR EXAMPLE, WHAT ARE THE ODDS
252
00:13:41,633 --> 00:13:45,300
OF TWO PEOPLE HAVING
THE SAME BIRTHDAY?
253
00:13:45,300 --> 00:13:49,567
THERE ARE
365 POSSIBLE BIRTHDAYS.
254
00:13:49,567 --> 00:13:53,867
HALF OF 365 IS ABOUT 183.
255
00:13:53,867 --> 00:13:57,333
SO YOU MIGHT THINK
YOU NEED 183 PEOPLE IN A ROOM
256
00:13:57,333 --> 00:13:59,467
BEFORE YOU HAVE A 50/50 CHANCE
257
00:13:59,467 --> 00:14:03,067
THAT TWO WILL HAVE
THE SAME BIRTHDAY.
258
00:14:03,067 --> 00:14:07,100
IN FACT, YOU NEED JUST 23.
259
00:14:07,100 --> 00:14:09,300
IT'S A MATTER OF PAIRS.
260
00:14:09,300 --> 00:14:13,467
WITH 5 PEOPLE,
YOU GET 10 POSSIBLE PAIRS.
261
00:14:13,467 --> 00:14:17,133
WITH 10, YOU GET 45 PAIRS.
262
00:14:17,133 --> 00:14:21,700
WITH 15, YOU GET 105 PARIS.
263
00:14:21,700 --> 00:14:24,767
BY THE TIME YOU GET
23 PEOPLE IN A ROOM,
264
00:14:24,767 --> 00:14:30,067
THERE ARE 253 DIFFERENT WAYS
OF PAIRING TWO PEOPLE TOGETHER,
265
00:14:30,067 --> 00:14:32,467
GIVING YOU BETTER THAN EVEN ODDS
266
00:14:32,467 --> 00:14:36,167
TWO OF THEM WILL SHARE
THE SAME BIRTHDAY.
267
00:14:36,167 --> 00:14:37,967
STILL CONFUSED?
268
00:14:37,967 --> 00:14:40,067
YOU'RE NOT ALONE.
269
00:14:40,067 --> 00:14:42,600
THERE'S SOME PSYCHOLOGICAL
RESEARCH ON THE BIRTHDAY PROBLEM
270
00:14:42,600 --> 00:14:44,700
THAT SUGGESTS THAT
FOR THESE KINDS OF PROBLEMS,
271
00:14:44,700 --> 00:14:47,567
PEOPLE DON'T RECOGNIZE
THE COMBINATORIAL STRUCTURE --
272
00:14:47,567 --> 00:14:49,333
THIS IDEA THAT THE NUMBER
OF PAIRS INCREASES
273
00:14:49,333 --> 00:14:50,667
IN A WAY THAT'S NONLINEAR.
274
00:14:50,667 --> 00:14:52,600
SO PEOPLE SEEM
TO INTUITIVELY EXPECT
275
00:14:52,600 --> 00:14:54,767
THAT THAT RELATIONSHIP
INCREASES LINEARLY,
276
00:14:54,767 --> 00:14:56,633
THAT THE NUMBER OF PAIRS
277
00:14:56,633 --> 00:14:58,567
GOES AS SOMETHING
LIKE THE NUMBER OF PEOPLE.
278
00:14:58,567 --> 00:15:00,500
AND SO, AS A CONSEQUENCE,
WE'RE SURPRISED,
279
00:15:00,500 --> 00:15:01,833
BECAUSE THERE ARE
MANY MORE OPPORTUNITIES
280
00:15:01,833 --> 00:15:04,100
FOR SOMETHING TO HAPPEN
THAN WE REALIZE.
281
00:15:04,100 --> 00:15:08,833
Freeman: HUMANS SEE MEANINGFUL
CONNECTIONS EVERYWHERE,
282
00:15:08,833 --> 00:15:11,467
BUT WE ARE THE ONES
WHO GIVE THEM MEANING.
283
00:15:11,467 --> 00:15:16,400
GIVEN THE FACT THAT THERE ARE
7 BILLION PEOPLE ON EARTH,
284
00:15:16,400 --> 00:15:18,633
IT IS INEVITABLE MANY PEOPLE
285
00:15:18,633 --> 00:15:23,433
WILL EXPERIENCE WEIRD AND
UNCANNY COINCIDENCES EVERY DAY.
286
00:15:23,433 --> 00:15:26,433
WITH A LARGE ENOUGH SAMPLE SIZE,
287
00:15:26,433 --> 00:15:30,100
JUST ABOUT ANY POSSIBLE
COINCIDENCE WILL HAPPEN.
288
00:15:30,100 --> 00:15:31,933
Griffiths:
ONE DEFINITION OF A COINCIDENCE
289
00:15:31,933 --> 00:15:34,600
IS A THING THAT HAPPENS WITH
A ONE-IN-A-MILLION PROBABILITY.
290
00:15:34,600 --> 00:15:37,067
SO, IF YOU SAY AN EVENT
CAN HAPPEN EVERY SECOND,
291
00:15:37,067 --> 00:15:39,167
WE'RE AWAKE
FOR ABOUT EIGHT HOURS A DAY,
292
00:15:39,167 --> 00:15:40,400
IT SUGGESTS THAT YOU PROBABLY
293
00:15:40,400 --> 00:15:43,500
GET ABOUT ONE COINCIDENCE
EVERY MONTH.
294
00:15:43,500 --> 00:15:44,900
Freeman:
BY THAT DEFINITION,
295
00:15:44,900 --> 00:15:47,267
THE FACT
THAT LAURA BUXTON'S BALLOON
296
00:15:47,267 --> 00:15:51,367
FOUND ITS WAY ACROSS BRITAIN
TO A SECOND LAURA BUXTON
297
00:15:51,367 --> 00:15:53,833
IS A COINCIDENCE.
298
00:15:55,133 --> 00:15:57,633
BUT IT'S NOT MAGIC.
299
00:16:01,933 --> 00:16:05,833
OUR BRAINS LOOK FOR PATTERNS
AND COINCIDENCES
300
00:16:05,833 --> 00:16:09,600
TO FORM THEORIES
ABOUT HOW THE WORLD WORKS.
301
00:16:09,600 --> 00:16:12,767
SOMETIMES,
WE DRAW THE WRONG CONCLUSIONS.
302
00:16:12,767 --> 00:16:17,200
BUT OTHER TIMES,
SEEING PATTERNS IN COINCIDENCES
303
00:16:17,200 --> 00:16:20,067
OPENS UP WHOLE NEW WAYS
OF THINKING.
304
00:16:20,067 --> 00:16:22,467
THAT SENSITIVITY TO PATTERNS
305
00:16:22,467 --> 00:16:24,467
NOT ONLY SOMETIMES
LEADS US ASTRAY
306
00:16:24,467 --> 00:16:27,133
WHEN WE'RE TRYING TO THINK
ABOUT THE CONSEQUENCES
307
00:16:27,133 --> 00:16:28,567
OF, WHAT COULD EXPLAIN
308
00:16:28,567 --> 00:16:30,900
HOW A CHILD COULD RELEASE
A BALLOON IN ONE PLACE
309
00:16:30,900 --> 00:16:33,600
AND A CHILD WITH THE SAME NAME
COULD CATCH IT IN ANOTHER?
310
00:16:33,600 --> 00:16:36,567
BUT THE KINDS OF COINCIDENCES
THAT WE GET EXCITED ABOUT
311
00:16:36,567 --> 00:16:38,967
ARE OFTEN THINGS
THAT ARE NOT JUST UNLIKELY,
312
00:16:38,967 --> 00:16:40,567
BUT ALSO SUGGEST
THAT THERE MAY BE
313
00:16:40,567 --> 00:16:42,700
SOME OTHER KIND OF FORCE
OF SYNCHRONICITY AT WORK
314
00:16:42,700 --> 00:16:45,400
THAT'S PRODUCING THOSE EVENTS
IN THE WORLD.
315
00:16:45,400 --> 00:16:46,900
Freeman: THE WORLD IS FILLED
316
00:16:46,900 --> 00:16:50,100
WITH THE UNKNOWN
AND THE UNCERTAIN.
317
00:16:50,100 --> 00:16:53,400
OUR BRAINS ARE BUILT
TO TRY TO MAKE SENSE OF IT.
318
00:16:53,400 --> 00:16:57,867
SOME THINGS MAKE SENSE.
SOME DON'T.
319
00:16:57,867 --> 00:17:00,933
BUT OF ALL THE MYSTERIES
WE FACE,
320
00:17:00,933 --> 00:17:03,433
ONE LOOMS ABOVE THEM ALL --
321
00:17:03,433 --> 00:17:06,567
WHEN WILL OUR LUCK RUN OUT?
322
00:17:06,567 --> 00:17:08,867
THIS MAN SAYS WE CAN HARNESS
323
00:17:08,867 --> 00:17:12,133
OUR GROWING UNDERSTANDING
OF LUCK AND PROBABILITY
324
00:17:12,133 --> 00:17:16,200
AND USE IT TO BEAT BACK
THE SPECTER OF DEATH.
325
00:17:19,133 --> 00:17:22,067
IF WE CHOOSE TO BELIVE IN LUCK,
326
00:17:22,067 --> 00:17:25,900
THEN WE MUST ALSO ACCEPT
ITS DARK SIDE.
327
00:17:25,900 --> 00:17:29,933
ANY ONE OF US COULD BE
SECONDS AWAY FROM DEATH.
328
00:17:29,933 --> 00:17:34,100
MOST WANT TO POSTPONE
THAT MOMENT AS LONG AS POSSIBLE.
329
00:17:34,100 --> 00:17:37,967
WE MAY TRY TO EAT BETTER,
EXERCISE, AND AVOID RISK,
330
00:17:37,967 --> 00:17:41,067
BUT DOES IT MAKE A DIFFERENCE?
331
00:17:41,067 --> 00:17:45,800
OR ARE WE ALL AT THE MERCY
OF BAD LUCK?
332
00:17:49,800 --> 00:17:53,067
DAVID SPIEGELHALTER IS
A PROFESSOR OF MATHEMATICS
333
00:17:53,067 --> 00:17:55,800
AT THE UNIVERSITY OF CAMBRIDGE.
334
00:17:55,800 --> 00:17:58,067
HE IS A GURU OF STATISTICS
335
00:17:58,067 --> 00:18:02,167
OR, YOU MIGHT SAY,
A PRINCE OF PROBABILITY.
336
00:18:02,167 --> 00:18:04,967
PROBABILITY'S
A REALLY TRICKY SUBJECT.
337
00:18:04,967 --> 00:18:06,667
PEOPLE FIND IT UNINTUITIVE
AND DIFFICULT,
338
00:18:06,667 --> 00:18:09,700
AND THAT'S BECAUSE, I THINK,
IT IS UNINTUITIVE AND DIFFICULT.
339
00:18:09,700 --> 00:18:12,767
BUT IT'S REALLY WORTH STRUGGLING
TO TRY TO WORK OUT
340
00:18:12,767 --> 00:18:14,433
THE APPROXIMATE ROUGH ANSWER
341
00:18:14,433 --> 00:18:17,067
TO THINGS THAT MIGHT HAPPEN
IN THE FUTURE.
342
00:18:17,067 --> 00:18:22,233
Freeman: DAVID FEELS MODERN
SOCIETY OVERREACTS TO BAD LUCK.
343
00:18:22,233 --> 00:18:26,900
UNUSUAL EVENTS WILL GET
A GREAT DEAL OF MEDIA COVERAGE,
344
00:18:26,900 --> 00:18:30,833
WHICH CAN MAKE PEOPLE BELIEVE
RIDING A BICYCLE WILL KILL YOU.
345
00:18:30,833 --> 00:18:32,867
Spiegelhalter:
I THINK THE PROBLEM IS
346
00:18:32,867 --> 00:18:35,233
THAT WHEN WE READ THE NEWSPAPERS
OR TURN ON THE TELEVISION,
347
00:18:35,233 --> 00:18:37,500
WE HEAR ABOUT THESE TERRIBLE
THINGS TO HAPPEN TO PEOPLE.
348
00:18:37,500 --> 00:18:39,367
BUT OF COURSE,
WE DON'T HEAR ABOUT
349
00:18:39,367 --> 00:18:40,733
THE TIMES IT DIDN'T HAPPEN,
350
00:18:40,733 --> 00:18:42,200
ALL THE PEOPLE
IT DIDN'T HAPPEN TO,
351
00:18:42,200 --> 00:18:44,300
'CAUSE THAT WOULD MAKE
A VERY BORING STORY, YOU KNOW --
352
00:18:44,300 --> 00:18:47,400
"A MILLION KIDS WENT TO SCHOOL
TODAY AND NOBODY GOT HURT" --
353
00:18:47,400 --> 00:18:50,933
SO YOU CAN'T PUT THAT ON
THE FRONT PAGE OF THE NEWSPAPER.
354
00:18:50,933 --> 00:18:53,833
Freeman:
UNUSUAL DEATHS MAKE THE NEWS
355
00:18:53,833 --> 00:18:56,933
BECAUSE OUR FATES SEEM
SO UNPREDICTABLE.
356
00:18:56,933 --> 00:19:01,100
HOWEVER, BY LOOKING
AT AVERAGE LIFE SPANS,
357
00:19:01,100 --> 00:19:03,267
DAVID CAN MAKE
A PRETTY GOOD GUESS
358
00:19:03,267 --> 00:19:05,567
ABOUT WHEN YOU'RE GOING TO DIE.
359
00:19:05,567 --> 00:19:07,700
Spiegelhalter: WHEN I WAS BORN
IN THE EARLY 50's,
360
00:19:07,700 --> 00:19:12,367
I THINK I COULD HAVE EXPECTED
TO LIVE MAYBE INTO MY 70s.
361
00:19:12,367 --> 00:19:16,167
BUT NOW, BECAUSE
OF THE INCREASES IN SAFETY,
362
00:19:16,167 --> 00:19:17,867
IMPROVEMENTS IN HEALTHCARE,
363
00:19:17,867 --> 00:19:20,233
YOU KNOW, I CAN EXPECT TO LIVE,
ON AVERAGE, TILL I'M ABOUT 82.
364
00:19:20,233 --> 00:19:23,067
AS YOU GET OLDER,
YOUR LIFE EXPECTANCY INCREASES
365
00:19:23,067 --> 00:19:24,733
BY ABOUT THREE MONTHS
EVERY YEAR.
366
00:19:24,733 --> 00:19:26,667
IT'S QUITE INCREDIBLE
THAT EVERY YEAR,
367
00:19:26,667 --> 00:19:29,567
LIFE EXPECTANCY GOES UP,
ON AVERAGE, BY THREE MONTHS,
368
00:19:29,567 --> 00:19:32,700
AND IT'S BEEN HAPPENING
LIKE THAT FOR DECADES.
369
00:19:35,633 --> 00:19:39,200
OF COURSE, HOW I LIVE MY LIFE
WILL AFFECT
370
00:19:39,200 --> 00:19:42,600
WHETHER I'M GOING TO GO BEYOND
THE 82 OR NOT MAKE THE 82.
371
00:19:42,600 --> 00:19:43,967
IF I SMOKE,
372
00:19:43,967 --> 00:19:46,967
THERE'S A VERY GOOD CHANCE
I WON'T MAKE IT THAT LONG.
373
00:19:46,967 --> 00:19:51,467
Freeman: TWO CIGARETTES WILL
COST YOU HALF AN HOUR OF LIFE.
374
00:19:51,467 --> 00:19:55,667
THE AVERAGE SMOKER
GOES THROUGH 20 A DAY,
375
00:19:55,667 --> 00:20:04,900
SO THEY LOSE FIVE HOURS EVERY
DAY, OR 1,825 HOURS A YEAR.
376
00:20:04,900 --> 00:20:09,767
OF COURSE, YOU CAN DO THINGS
TO EXTEND YOUR LIFE.
377
00:20:09,767 --> 00:20:12,633
EACH REGULAR RUN OF HALF AN HOUR
378
00:20:12,633 --> 00:20:16,000
WILL HELP YOU GAIN
HALF AN HOUR OF LIFE,
379
00:20:16,000 --> 00:20:20,367
BUT YOU WILL HAVE SPENT
THOSE HALF HOURS RUNNING.
380
00:20:20,367 --> 00:20:23,900
LIFESTYLE WILL AFFECT
HOW LONG WE LIVE,
381
00:20:23,900 --> 00:20:27,000
BUT IT'S WORTH BEARING IN MIND
382
00:20:27,000 --> 00:20:30,700
THAT A LOT OF STATISTICS
ARE TAKEN OUT OF CONTEXT.
383
00:20:30,700 --> 00:20:33,967
EATING A BACON SANDWICH
EVERY DAY OF YOUR LIFE
384
00:20:33,967 --> 00:20:37,667
IS SUPPOSED TO INCREASE YOUR
RISK OF BOWEL CANCER BY 20%.
385
00:20:37,667 --> 00:20:39,100
BUT AROUND 5 IN 100 PEOPLE
386
00:20:39,100 --> 00:20:41,767
WILL GET BOWEL CANCER, ANYWAY,
IN THEIR LIFETIME.
387
00:20:41,767 --> 00:20:44,000
SO THAT MEANS THAT
IF ALL THOSE 100
388
00:20:44,000 --> 00:20:48,100
ATE A BACON SANDWICH EVERY DAY,
THAT FIVE WOULD GO UP TO SIX.
389
00:20:48,100 --> 00:20:50,300
SO, THAT'S ONLY 1 IN 100 EXTRA.
390
00:20:50,300 --> 00:20:52,500
THAT DOESN'T SEEM QUITE SO BAD.
391
00:20:52,500 --> 00:20:55,100
SO, I THINK I'M GONNA HAVE
AN OCCASIONAL BACON SANDWICH.
392
00:20:55,100 --> 00:20:59,733
Freeman: LIVING RIGHT IMPROVES
YOUR ODDS OF SURVIVAL,
393
00:20:59,733 --> 00:21:05,133
BUT THERE IS NO GUARANTEE
YOU WON'T DIE TOMORROW.
394
00:21:08,367 --> 00:21:13,233
WITH EVERY PASSING YEAR,
DAVID'S RISK OF DYING GROWS.
395
00:21:13,233 --> 00:21:15,267
SO HOW SHOULD HE LIVE HIS LIFE,
396
00:21:15,267 --> 00:21:19,367
KNOWING RANDOM CHANCE
COULD END IT AT ANY MOMENT?
397
00:21:19,367 --> 00:21:21,400
SHOULD HE LIVE FOR TODAY,
398
00:21:21,400 --> 00:21:26,467
OR SEAL HIMSELF OFF
FROM EVERY POSSIBLE DANGER?
399
00:21:26,467 --> 00:21:29,067
DAVID GRAPPLES WITH THIS PROBLEM
400
00:21:29,067 --> 00:21:32,133
USING A MEASUREMENT
CALLED THE MICROMORT --
401
00:21:32,133 --> 00:21:35,367
LITERALLY MEANING
"A SMALL UNIT OF DEATH."
402
00:21:35,367 --> 00:21:37,300
ONE MICROMORT EQUALS
403
00:21:37,300 --> 00:21:40,100
A ONE-IN-A-MILLION CHANCE
OF DYING.
404
00:21:40,100 --> 00:21:41,833
YOU KNOW, OVER MY LIFETIME,
405
00:21:41,833 --> 00:21:45,267
IS I'VE GOT ABOUT A MICROMORT
RISK OF AN ASTEROID KILLING ME.
406
00:21:45,267 --> 00:21:50,067
BUT IT'S ABOUT MY DAILY QUANTITY
OF RISK, JUST FROM ALL CAUSES --
407
00:21:50,067 --> 00:21:52,600
YOU KNOW,
FROM FALLING OFF A LADDER
408
00:21:52,600 --> 00:21:55,600
OR GETTING RUN OVER
OR SOMETHING LIKE THAT.
409
00:21:55,600 --> 00:21:57,067
Freeman: DAVID CALCULATES
410
00:21:57,067 --> 00:21:59,667
THE CHANCE OF DYING
IF YOU RIDE A HORSE
411
00:21:59,667 --> 00:22:02,100
IS HALF A MICROMORT.
412
00:22:02,100 --> 00:22:05,867
HANG GLIDING IS
EIGHT MICROMORTS.
413
00:22:05,867 --> 00:22:09,433
CLIMBING A MOUNTAIN ABOVE
23,000 FEET
414
00:22:09,433 --> 00:22:13,500
IS 43,000 MICROMORTS.
415
00:22:13,500 --> 00:22:17,167
SO, AT WHAT POINT IS IT WORTH
THE RISK?
416
00:22:18,767 --> 00:22:21,400
IT MAY DEPEND ON
HOW OLD YOU ARE.
417
00:22:21,400 --> 00:22:25,500
THE AVERAGE 18-YEAR-OLD HAS
A 500-MICROMORT CHANCE
418
00:22:25,500 --> 00:22:28,633
OF DYING IN THE NEXT 12 MONTHS,
419
00:22:28,633 --> 00:22:32,967
BUT DAVID'S ODDS OF DYING
ARE 14 TIMES HIGHER,
420
00:22:32,967 --> 00:22:36,967
THEREFORE HE MIGHT AS WELL
TAKE MORE RISKS.
421
00:22:36,967 --> 00:22:39,833
WHETHER YOU TAKE WILD CHANCES
422
00:22:39,833 --> 00:22:42,800
OR CAREFULLY CALCULATE
YOUR EVERY MOVE,
423
00:22:42,800 --> 00:22:46,133
YOU ARE ALWAYS AT THE MERCY
OF BAD LUCK.
424
00:22:48,700 --> 00:22:53,067
JUST DRIVING PUTS YOU AT
A 40-MICROMORT RISK EVERY YEAR.
425
00:22:53,067 --> 00:22:57,067
WE CAN'T PREDICT WHAT'S
GONNA HAPPEN, AND SO IN A SENSE,
426
00:22:57,067 --> 00:22:59,800
WE'RE OPEN TO CHANCE,
THINGS THAT WE JUST DON'T KNOW.
427
00:22:59,800 --> 00:23:01,967
WE CAN'T ESCAPE IT,
BUT WE CAN TRY TO LIVE WITH IT.
428
00:23:01,967 --> 00:23:03,533
IN FACT,
I THINK WE QUITE ENJOY IT.
429
00:23:03,533 --> 00:23:04,700
WE DON'T WANT TO KNOW
430
00:23:04,700 --> 00:23:06,233
EXACTLY WHAT'S GONNA HAPPEN
IN THE FUTURE.
431
00:23:06,233 --> 00:23:08,167
THAT WOULD BE PRETTY MISERABLE.
432
00:23:11,233 --> 00:23:13,067
LUCK.
433
00:23:13,067 --> 00:23:17,167
IT PLAYS A CRUCIAL ROLE
IN THE COURSE OF OUR LIVES.
434
00:23:17,167 --> 00:23:20,533
BUT IT CAN RUN DEEPER
THAN WE THINK.
435
00:23:20,533 --> 00:23:23,800
WE MAY LITERALLY
BE MADE FROM IT.
436
00:23:23,800 --> 00:23:29,267
PERHAPS LUCK IS BUILT
INTO OUR DNA.
437
00:23:32,867 --> 00:23:34,933
EVERY LIVING THING
438
00:23:34,933 --> 00:23:38,433
IS MADE OF CELLS
THAT FOLLOW GENETIC PROGRAMS.
439
00:23:38,433 --> 00:23:40,267
THOSE PROGRAMS TELL CELLS
440
00:23:40,267 --> 00:23:44,667
HOW TO MAKE THINGS
LIKE TREES, ARMS, LEGS.
441
00:23:44,667 --> 00:23:47,233
THIS IS THE MIRACLE OF LIFE.
442
00:23:47,233 --> 00:23:49,333
FROM TINY BITS OF DNA
443
00:23:49,333 --> 00:23:54,767
EMERGES THE ELEGANCE, ORDER,
AND BEAUTY OF THE NATURAL WORLD.
444
00:23:54,767 --> 00:24:00,500
BUT INSIDE OF ALL LIVING THINGS,
THERE IS AN ELEMENT OF CHAOS,
445
00:24:00,500 --> 00:24:04,800
A TWIST OF LUCK THAT MAKES
LIFE ITSELF POSSIBLE.
446
00:24:10,867 --> 00:24:14,133
MICHAEL ELOWITZ IS
A PROFESSOR OF BIOLOGY,
447
00:24:14,133 --> 00:24:16,733
BIO-ENGINEERING,
AND APPLIED PHYSICS
448
00:24:16,733 --> 00:24:19,967
AT THE CALIFORNIA INSTITUTE
OF TECHNOLOGY.
449
00:24:19,967 --> 00:24:21,867
Elowitz:
SO, OUR BODIES ARE COMPOSED
450
00:24:21,867 --> 00:24:23,833
OF TRILLIONS OF INDIVIDUAL,
LIVING CELLS.
451
00:24:23,833 --> 00:24:26,767
NORMALLY, WE THINK OF THOSE
CELLS AS LITTLE MACHINES
452
00:24:26,767 --> 00:24:28,600
THAT SENSE WHAT'S AROUND THEM
453
00:24:28,600 --> 00:24:30,833
AND RESPOND AT THE RIGHT WAY
AT THE RIGHT TIME.
454
00:24:30,833 --> 00:24:32,867
BUT WHAT IF CELLS DON'T OPERATE
LIKE THAT?
455
00:24:32,867 --> 00:24:34,667
WHAT IF THEY'RE NOT
LIKE MECHANICAL DEVICES
456
00:24:34,667 --> 00:24:37,133
THAT ALWAYS OPERATE
IN A PREDICTABLE WAY.
457
00:24:37,133 --> 00:24:38,800
WHAT IF WHAT CELLS
ARE REALLY DOING
458
00:24:38,800 --> 00:24:41,067
IS EFFECTIVELY ROLLING THE DICE
TO FIGURE OUT
459
00:24:41,067 --> 00:24:43,767
HOW THEY'RE GONNA RESPOND
TO ANY PARTICULAR SITUATION?
460
00:24:45,700 --> 00:24:48,067
Freeman: CELLS CONTAIN GENES,
461
00:24:48,067 --> 00:24:52,200
AND GENES REGULATE
THE PRODUCTION OF PROTEINS.
462
00:24:52,200 --> 00:24:55,100
PROTEINS ARE
WHAT MAKE CELLS FUNCTION
463
00:24:55,100 --> 00:24:57,233
AND BEHAVE IN DIFFERENT WAYS.
464
00:24:57,233 --> 00:25:00,333
ONLY RECENTLY HAS ANYONE
BEEN ABLE TO SEE
465
00:25:00,333 --> 00:25:02,800
HOW THIS PROCESS WORKS.
466
00:25:02,800 --> 00:25:07,233
FOR THAT,
WE CAN THANK A JELLYFISH.
467
00:25:07,233 --> 00:25:10,567
JELLYFISH CONTAIN
FLUORESCENT PROTEIN GENES --
468
00:25:10,567 --> 00:25:12,700
GENES THAT LIGHT UP.
469
00:25:12,700 --> 00:25:15,233
MICHAEL AND HIS TEAM
HAVE BEEN TAKING
470
00:25:15,233 --> 00:25:17,933
THESE FLUORESCENT GENES OUT
OF JELLYFISH
471
00:25:17,933 --> 00:25:21,067
AND PUTTING THEM INTO
OTHER CELLS IN THE LAB.
472
00:25:21,067 --> 00:25:24,633
NOW HE CAN WATCH THE GENES
TURN ON AND OFF.
473
00:25:24,633 --> 00:25:27,500
WHAT THIS MICROSCOPE DOES IS
IT GOES FROM PLACE TO PLACE
474
00:25:27,500 --> 00:25:29,267
AND IT TAKES PICTURES
OF THESE CELLS,
475
00:25:29,267 --> 00:25:31,567
AND IT TAKES A PICTURE OF THE
BLUE PROTEIN, THE RED PROTEIN,
476
00:25:31,567 --> 00:25:33,067
AND THE GREEN PROTEIN
AT EACH PLACE.
477
00:25:33,067 --> 00:25:36,633
AND WHAT WE DO IS WE KEEP TAKING
THESE IMAGES OVER AND OVER AGAIN
478
00:25:36,633 --> 00:25:40,100
AS EACH CELL GROWS AND DIVIDES,
FORMING LITTLE MICRO-COLONIES.
479
00:25:40,100 --> 00:25:42,067
WE TAKE ALL THESE IMAGES,
AT THE END,
480
00:25:42,067 --> 00:25:44,733
AND WE STITCH THEM TOGETHER
INTO TIME-LAPSE MOVIES.
481
00:25:44,733 --> 00:25:45,867
AND IN THOSE MOVIES,
482
00:25:45,867 --> 00:25:47,533
WE CAN FOLLOW
WHEN EACH OF THESE GENES
483
00:25:47,533 --> 00:25:49,367
IS BEING TURNED ON AND OFF
AND ON AND OFF,
484
00:25:49,367 --> 00:25:52,133
AGAIN AND AGAIN AND AGAIN.
485
00:25:52,133 --> 00:25:56,600
Freeman: THE CELLS
MICHAEL CREATES ARE CLONES.
486
00:25:56,600 --> 00:25:58,567
THEY SHOULD ALL BEHAVE
487
00:25:58,567 --> 00:26:02,700
IN EXACTLY THE SAME WAY
AT THE SAME TIME.
488
00:26:02,700 --> 00:26:08,067
SO, THESE CELLS SHOULD
ALL CHANGE COLOR IN UNISON.
489
00:26:08,067 --> 00:26:09,933
BUT THEY DON'T.
490
00:26:09,933 --> 00:26:11,633
MICHAEL AND HIS TEAM
491
00:26:11,633 --> 00:26:15,067
ARE CONDUCTING HUNDREDS OF
EXPERIMENTS TO FIND OUT WHY.
492
00:26:15,067 --> 00:26:17,433
THEY ARE STUDYING
THE INNER WORKINGS
493
00:26:17,433 --> 00:26:20,333
OF MANY DIFFERENT TYPES
OF CELLS.
494
00:26:20,333 --> 00:26:24,100
Elowitz:
WE BUILT A STRAIN OF E. COLI
THAT HAD TWO COLORS IN IT.
495
00:26:24,100 --> 00:26:25,967
BOTH OF THESE COLORED PROTEINS
496
00:26:25,967 --> 00:26:28,100
ARE EXPRESSED
IN VERY SIMILAR GENES --
497
00:26:28,100 --> 00:26:30,133
THE CELL CAN'T REALLY TELL
THE DIFFERENCE.
498
00:26:30,133 --> 00:26:31,333
IF IT'S GONNA TURN ONE ON,
499
00:26:31,333 --> 00:26:33,400
IT OUGHT TO TURN
THE OTHER ONE ON, AS WELL.
500
00:26:33,400 --> 00:26:35,233
HERE'S A PICTURE
WHERE YOU CAN SEE
501
00:26:35,233 --> 00:26:37,933
HOW MUCH OF ONE OF THOSE
TWO PROTEINS WAS EXPRESSED,
502
00:26:37,933 --> 00:26:39,533
AND HERE'S A PICTURE SHOWING YOU
503
00:26:39,533 --> 00:26:41,833
HOW MUCH OF THE OTHER PROTEIN
WAS EXPRESSED.
504
00:26:41,833 --> 00:26:43,533
WHAT WAS REALLY STRIKING IS THAT
505
00:26:43,533 --> 00:26:46,233
IF YOU FLIP BACK AND FORTH
BETWEEN THESE PICTURES,
506
00:26:46,233 --> 00:26:48,433
YOU CAN SEE THAT SOME CELLS
ARE MAKING
507
00:26:48,433 --> 00:26:50,800
A LOT MORE OF ONE PROTEIN
THAN THE OTHER.
508
00:26:50,800 --> 00:26:54,367
Freeman: WHEN THE RED AND GREEN
CHANNELS ARE COMBINED,
509
00:26:54,367 --> 00:26:57,500
YOU GET THIS -- RANDOMNESS.
510
00:26:57,500 --> 00:26:59,500
EVEN THOUGH
THE GREEN AND RED GENES
511
00:26:59,500 --> 00:27:02,067
ARE CONTROLLED
THE EXACT SAME WAY,
512
00:27:02,067 --> 00:27:07,733
THEY EXPRESS THEMSELVES
AT DIFFERENT TIMES RANDOMLY.
513
00:27:09,367 --> 00:27:12,500
MICHAEL DISCOVERED
THE INNER WORKINGS OF CELLS
514
00:27:12,500 --> 00:27:15,767
ARE NOT ORDERLY, PRECISE,
AND MACHINE-LIKE.
515
00:27:15,767 --> 00:27:19,533
IN FACT, IT'S A MATTER OF LUCK.
516
00:27:19,533 --> 00:27:22,200
Elowitz:
THESE PROTEINS DON'T TRICKLE OUT
AT A CONSTANT RATE
517
00:27:22,200 --> 00:27:23,600
WHEN THE CELL TURNS ON A GENE.
518
00:27:23,600 --> 00:27:25,067
THEY COME OUT IN BIG BURSTS.
519
00:27:25,067 --> 00:27:26,333
[ IMITATES EXPLOSIONS ]
520
00:27:26,333 --> 00:27:28,433
YOU GET TONS OF PROTEINS
BEING PRODUCED AT ONCE,
521
00:27:28,433 --> 00:27:31,067
AND THEN NOTHING [WHOOSHES]
SILENCE FOR A LONG TIME.
522
00:27:31,067 --> 00:27:32,367
THESE BURSTS ARE RANDOM.
523
00:27:32,367 --> 00:27:34,433
THEY COME OUT
AT UNPREDICTABLE TIMES.
524
00:27:34,433 --> 00:27:36,233
EVEN THE CELL ITSELF
CAN'T CONTROL
525
00:27:36,233 --> 00:27:39,433
EXACTLY WHEN
PROTEINS ARE BEING PRODUCED.
526
00:27:39,433 --> 00:27:43,833
Freeman:
THIS MESSINESS IS SEEN IN CELLS
FROM ALL SORTS OF CREATURES.
527
00:27:43,833 --> 00:27:48,333
IT SEEMS TO BE A FUNDAMENTAL
PART OF HOW DNA FUNCTIONS.
528
00:27:48,333 --> 00:27:49,667
THE COLOR OF YOUR EYES
529
00:27:49,667 --> 00:27:52,267
OR WHETHER YOU GET
A CERTAIN DEADLY DISEASE
530
00:27:52,267 --> 00:27:58,333
MAY COME DOWN TO HEREDITY
PLUS RANDOMNESS.
531
00:27:58,333 --> 00:27:59,867
[ KEYBOARD CLACKING ]
532
00:27:59,867 --> 00:28:03,333
MICHAEL BELIEVES
THIS CELLULAR UNPREDICTABILITY
533
00:28:03,333 --> 00:28:06,667
EXISTS FOR THE MOST BASIC
OF REASONS --
534
00:28:06,667 --> 00:28:08,633
SURVIVAL.
535
00:28:08,633 --> 00:28:10,967
Elowitz: FOR CELLS, THESE ARE
LIFE-OR-DEATH PROBLEMS.
536
00:28:10,967 --> 00:28:13,500
IF THEY CHOOSE TO EXPRESS
THE WRONG SET OF GENES,
537
00:28:13,500 --> 00:28:14,567
THEY'RE GONNA DIE.
538
00:28:14,567 --> 00:28:16,067
WHAT'S IMPORTANT FOR THEM
539
00:28:16,067 --> 00:28:18,233
IS TO SURVIVE
AT LEAST AS A POPULATION.
540
00:28:18,233 --> 00:28:19,633
AS A POPULATION,
THEY CAN GUARANTEE
541
00:28:19,633 --> 00:28:21,433
THAT THEY'RE GONNA SURVIVE
BY HAVING SOME CELLS
542
00:28:21,433 --> 00:28:23,500
DO ONE THING
AND SOME CELLS DO SOMETHING ELSE
543
00:28:23,500 --> 00:28:25,967
AND HOPING THAT AT LEAST PART
OF THE POPULATION
544
00:28:25,967 --> 00:28:28,100
DOES THE RIGHT THING
AT THE RIGHT TIME.
545
00:28:28,100 --> 00:28:31,100
SO ANY STRATEGY WHICH
ALL THE CELLS DO THE SAME THING
546
00:28:31,100 --> 00:28:32,733
IS VERY, VERY RISKY.
547
00:28:32,733 --> 00:28:34,467
IT'S A LITTLE BIT LIKE GOING
TO THE HORSE RACES
548
00:28:34,467 --> 00:28:36,600
AND SAYING YOU'RE GONNA PUT
ALL YOUR MONEY ON ONE HORSE.
549
00:28:36,600 --> 00:28:38,333
IT MAY PAY OFF VERY WELL,
550
00:28:38,333 --> 00:28:40,767
BUT IT ALSO COULD HAVE A VERY
BIG DOWNSIDE AND WIPE YOU OUT.
551
00:28:40,767 --> 00:28:43,100
SO IT CAN BE MUCH MORE
ADVANTAGEOUS TO SPREAD THE RISK
552
00:28:43,100 --> 00:28:44,600
ACROSS
MANY DIFFERENT STRATEGIES.
553
00:28:44,600 --> 00:28:45,833
[ HORSE WHINNIES ]
554
00:28:45,833 --> 00:28:49,500
Freeman: IT SEEMS...
LIFE IS NOT JUST FOLLOWING
555
00:28:49,500 --> 00:28:53,233
THE LOGICAL INSTRUCTIONS
OF ITS GENETIC SOFTWARE.
556
00:28:53,233 --> 00:28:57,233
RANDOMNESS IS BUILT
INTO NATURE'S PROGRAM.
557
00:28:57,233 --> 00:28:58,733
LUCK AND CHANCE
ARE NOT JUST REAL.
558
00:28:58,733 --> 00:29:01,833
LIFE AS WE KNOW IT REALLY
WOULDN'T FUNCTION WITHOUT THEM.
559
00:29:01,833 --> 00:29:05,233
Freeman:
LUCK IS PART OF OUR BIOLOGY.
560
00:29:05,233 --> 00:29:08,867
BUT RANDOM CHANCE MAY RUN
EVEN DEEPER THAN THAT.
561
00:29:08,867 --> 00:29:12,467
GENETIC MOLECULES ARE MADE UP
OF ATOMS,
562
00:29:12,467 --> 00:29:14,600
AND SUB-ATOMIC PARTICLES
563
00:29:14,600 --> 00:29:18,567
UNDERGO COUNTLESS INTERACTIONS
EVER NANOSECOND.
564
00:29:18,567 --> 00:29:20,700
THE TRUE FACE OF LUCK
565
00:29:20,700 --> 00:29:24,133
MAY BE HIDDEN DEEP DOWN
IN THE MYSTERIOUS QUANTUM WORLD.
566
00:29:27,667 --> 00:29:33,767
THE SUBATOMIC WORLD IS
A WORLD OF...UNCERTAINTY.
567
00:29:33,767 --> 00:29:36,167
QUANTUM OBJECTS, LIKE ELECTRONS,
568
00:29:36,167 --> 00:29:39,133
CAN BE IN MANY PLACES
AT ONCE...
569
00:29:39,133 --> 00:29:41,967
UNTIL WE MEASURE THEM.
570
00:29:41,967 --> 00:29:43,600
OUR ENTIRE UNIVERSE
571
00:29:43,600 --> 00:29:46,500
IS CONSTRUCTED
FROM QUANTUM PARTICLES.
572
00:29:46,500 --> 00:29:49,500
SO DOES REALITY DEPEND ON
573
00:29:49,500 --> 00:29:53,767
SOMETHING AS FICKLE
AS WHEN WE HAPPEN TO LOOK AT IT?
574
00:29:56,433 --> 00:30:01,400
WHAT IS YOU KNEW HOW EVERY FLIP
OF A COIN WAS GOING TO TURN OUT?
575
00:30:01,400 --> 00:30:04,233
IT WOULD REMOVE
THE ELEMENT OF LUCK.
576
00:30:04,233 --> 00:30:07,467
YOU WOULD ALWAYS BE CERTAIN
OF EVERY OUTCOME.
577
00:30:07,467 --> 00:30:10,933
BUT ACCORDING
TO ANDREAS ALBRECHT,
578
00:30:10,933 --> 00:30:13,867
THE CHAIRMAN OF THE PHYSICS
DEPARTMENT AT UC DAVIS,
579
00:30:13,867 --> 00:30:17,033
NATURE WILL NOT PERMIT THAT.
580
00:30:17,033 --> 00:30:20,933
ANDREAS IS ONE OF THE FOUNDERS
OF INFLATION THEORY,
581
00:30:20,933 --> 00:30:24,700
WHICH EXPLAINS
THE ORIGIN OF THE UNIVERSE.
582
00:30:24,700 --> 00:30:26,800
BUT THOUGH HE THINKS BIG,
583
00:30:26,800 --> 00:30:29,633
HE BELIEVES ALL PROBLEMS
CAN BE REDUCED
584
00:30:29,633 --> 00:30:33,300
TO THE TINY SIZE
OF A QUANTUM PARTICLE.
585
00:30:33,300 --> 00:30:35,800
Albrecht: FROM A PHYSICIST'S
POINT OF VIEW,
586
00:30:35,800 --> 00:30:36,900
LUCK IS VERY REAL.
587
00:30:36,900 --> 00:30:38,600
IT'S REAL BECAUSE
588
00:30:38,600 --> 00:30:41,800
UNDERLYING EVERYTHING AROUND US
IS QUANTUM MECHANICS.
589
00:30:41,800 --> 00:30:45,100
RANDOMNESS IS PART
OF HOW EVERY ATOM,
590
00:30:45,100 --> 00:30:46,933
HOW EVERY MOLECULE, OPERATES.
591
00:30:46,933 --> 00:30:49,800
YOU KNOW, I THINK, "OH, IF I
JUST KNOW THE POSITION EXACTLY,
592
00:30:49,800 --> 00:30:52,067
"IF I JUST KNOW ENOUGH,
593
00:30:52,067 --> 00:30:55,433
THEN NOTHING IS RANDOM AND
EVERYTHING CAN BE DETERMINED."
594
00:30:55,433 --> 00:30:58,467
BUT QUANTUM THEORY SAYS "NO."
595
00:30:58,467 --> 00:31:02,333
Freeman:
FOR EXAMPLE, THAT COIN FLIP.
596
00:31:02,333 --> 00:31:04,333
IMAGINE YOU KNEW THE POSITION
597
00:31:04,333 --> 00:31:06,933
OF EVERY MOLECULE IN THE AIR
AND IN YOUR BODY --
598
00:31:06,933 --> 00:31:12,400
EVERY PHYSICAL DETAIL THAT MIGHT
EFFECT THE OUTCOME OF THE TOSS.
599
00:31:12,400 --> 00:31:15,067
Albrecht:
A COIN FLIP -- THERE'S A LOT OF
DIFFERENT THINGS COORDINATING.
600
00:31:15,067 --> 00:31:17,767
YOUR MOTION OF YOUR HAND,
THE MOTION OF YOUR THUMB,
601
00:31:17,767 --> 00:31:20,300
YOUR REFLEXES, AND YOUR NEURONS.
602
00:31:20,300 --> 00:31:22,167
YOU ZOOM INTO THOSE NEURONS,
603
00:31:22,167 --> 00:31:25,100
AND YOU FIND YOUR REFLEXES
IN THE NEURONS
604
00:31:25,100 --> 00:31:28,133
DEPEND ON POLYPEPTIDES
THAT ARE BUMPING AROUND
605
00:31:28,133 --> 00:31:30,300
WITHIN THE WATER IN YOUR NEURON.
606
00:31:30,300 --> 00:31:32,900
NOW, THEY'RE BUMPING AROUND
WITH ALL THIS WATER.
607
00:31:32,900 --> 00:31:34,300
SOME BUMP IN, SOME BUMP OUT.
608
00:31:34,300 --> 00:31:37,767
AND THE ORIGIN OF THAT
RANDOMNESS IS QUANTUM PHYSICS.
609
00:31:41,433 --> 00:31:43,767
Freeman: IN A
BACK-OF-THE-ENVELOPE CALCULATION
610
00:31:43,767 --> 00:31:46,633
THAT ESTIMATES COIN SIZE, SPEED,
611
00:31:46,633 --> 00:31:49,267
AND NEUROTRANSMITTER
UNCERTAINTY,
612
00:31:49,267 --> 00:31:53,133
ANDREAS CAN SHOW THIS
QUANTUM SEQUENCE OF THE EVENTS
613
00:31:53,133 --> 00:31:57,433
CAN GIVE THE SAME PROBABILITY
OF THROWING A HEAD OR TAIL
614
00:31:57,433 --> 00:32:01,067
AS THE CONVENTIONAL
CALCULATION -- ONE-HALF.
615
00:32:01,067 --> 00:32:04,567
YOU CAN NEVER BE CERTAIN
WHICH WAY IT WILL FALL.
616
00:32:04,567 --> 00:32:08,433
Albrecht:
DOWN THERE WITH THE MOLECULES
IS QUANTUM UNCERTAINTY
617
00:32:08,433 --> 00:32:11,100
THAT YOU'LL NEVER GET RID OF,
NO MATTER HOW MUCH YOU KNOW.
618
00:32:11,100 --> 00:32:13,167
AND THAT'S LEADING TO THE FLIP
OF THE COIN,
619
00:32:13,167 --> 00:32:14,767
AND THAT'S LEADING TO YOUR LUCK.
620
00:32:14,767 --> 00:32:17,800
Freeman:
QUANTUM UNCERTAINTY
621
00:32:17,800 --> 00:32:20,167
IS BUILT INTO EVERYTHING,
622
00:32:20,167 --> 00:32:23,833
INCLUDING YOU, ME,
AND ALL THE FISH IN THE SEA.
623
00:32:23,833 --> 00:32:27,333
BUT FOR PHYSICISTS,
THIS IS A BIG PROBLEM --
624
00:32:27,333 --> 00:32:29,533
A UNIVERSE-SIZED PROBLEM.
625
00:32:29,533 --> 00:32:32,333
QUANTUM UNCERTAINTY
JUST DOESN'T AGREE
626
00:32:32,333 --> 00:32:36,367
WITH OUR UNDERSTANDING
OF THE LARGE-SCALE UNIVERSE.
627
00:32:36,367 --> 00:32:40,067
INFLATION THEORY, THE THEORY
ANDREAS HELPED INVENT,
628
00:32:40,067 --> 00:32:43,567
RUNS FACE-FIRST
INTO A QUANTUM WALL.
629
00:32:43,567 --> 00:32:49,133
COSMIC INFLATION THEORY IS
THE IDEA THAT, AT EARLY TIMES,
630
00:32:49,133 --> 00:32:53,600
THE UNIVERSE UNDERWENT
EXTRAORDINARILY RAPID EXPANSION.
631
00:32:53,600 --> 00:32:57,200
ON THE OTHER HAND,
BY MAKING THE MOST...
632
00:32:57,200 --> 00:32:59,700
SIMPLE ASSUMPTIONS
ABOUT HOW INFLATION WORKS,
633
00:32:59,700 --> 00:33:04,667
YOU WIND UP PREDICTING NOT
JUST ONE UNIVERSE THAT WE SEE,
634
00:33:04,667 --> 00:33:06,833
BUT INFINITELY MANY OTHERS.
635
00:33:06,833 --> 00:33:11,767
Freeman: INFLATION TELLS US
OUR UNIVERSE IS ONE OF MANY,
636
00:33:11,767 --> 00:33:14,700
SPREAD ACROSS A VAST COSMIC SEA.
637
00:33:14,700 --> 00:33:18,867
THESE SELF-CONTAINED UNIVERSES
SIT SIDE-BY-SIDE,
638
00:33:18,867 --> 00:33:22,133
UNSEEN TO EACH OTHER.
639
00:33:22,133 --> 00:33:26,067
FOR THIS GOLDFISH,
THE FISHBOWL IS ITS UNIVERSE.
640
00:33:26,067 --> 00:33:28,433
IT'S EVERYTHING IT KNOWS.
641
00:33:28,433 --> 00:33:30,267
WE THINK WE KNOW
THE ENTIRE UNIVERSE.
642
00:33:30,267 --> 00:33:32,833
WE SEE DISTANT STARS
AND GALAXIES.
643
00:33:32,833 --> 00:33:34,967
BUT MODERN THEORIES
OF THE COSMOS SUGGEST THAT
644
00:33:34,967 --> 00:33:39,300
EVERYTHING WE SEE COULD JUST BE
OUR GOLDFISH BOWL
645
00:33:39,300 --> 00:33:42,067
AND THERE'S MANY
OTHER POCKET UNIVERSES,
646
00:33:42,067 --> 00:33:45,233
MAYBE INFINITELY MORE,
OUT THERE IN THE COSMOS.
647
00:33:45,233 --> 00:33:48,867
Freeman: BUT BECAUSE THERE ARE
A FINITE NUMBER OF WAYS
648
00:33:48,867 --> 00:33:52,333
PARTICLES CAN BE ARRANGED
IN SPACE AND TIME,
649
00:33:52,333 --> 00:33:54,900
THERE MAY BE
OTHER POCKET UNIVERSES
650
00:33:54,900 --> 00:33:57,833
FAR, FAR AWAY
THAT LOOK LIKE OURS
651
00:33:57,833 --> 00:34:00,733
BUT ARE SLIGHTLY DIFFERENT.
652
00:34:00,733 --> 00:34:04,067
THE PROBLEM, ANDREAS SAYS,
653
00:34:04,067 --> 00:34:08,167
IS THAT,
IF THERE ARE INFINITE UNIVERSES,
654
00:34:08,167 --> 00:34:11,233
THE LAWS OF PROBABILITY
DON'T ADD UP.
655
00:34:11,233 --> 00:34:13,800
QUANTUM MEASUREMENTS ESTIMATE
656
00:34:13,800 --> 00:34:16,967
THE PROBABILITIES OF PARTICLES
HAVING CERTAIN PROPERTIES.
657
00:34:16,967 --> 00:34:21,667
IF THERE ARE INFINITE UNIVERSES,
EVERY POSSIBLE OUTCOME
658
00:34:21,667 --> 00:34:27,067
OF A MEASUREMENT IS DEFINITELY
GOING TO HAPPEN SOMEWHERE.
659
00:34:27,067 --> 00:34:30,300
THIS LEADS
TO A MATHEMATICAL MELTDOWN.
660
00:34:30,300 --> 00:34:33,133
Albrecht: ONCE YOU HAVE A THEORY
WITH POCKET UNIVERSES,
661
00:34:33,133 --> 00:34:36,700
YOU NO LONGER ARE ABLE TO USE
QUANTUM PROBABILITIES
662
00:34:36,700 --> 00:34:39,133
THE WAY WE DO
IN OUR NORMAL THEORIES.
663
00:34:39,133 --> 00:34:41,967
Freeman: SO, WHICH THEORY --
664
00:34:41,967 --> 00:34:45,067
POCKET UNIVERSES
OR QUANTUM MECHANICS --
665
00:34:45,067 --> 00:34:46,833
IS MORE LIKELY TO BE CORRECT?
666
00:34:47,967 --> 00:34:52,200
ANDREAS SAYS QUANTUM THEORY
IS PROBABLY THE DEEPER TRUTH.
667
00:34:52,200 --> 00:34:57,067
WE CAN'T SEE OTHER UNIVERSES,
BUT WE CAN SEE LUCK.
668
00:34:57,067 --> 00:34:59,433
Albrecht:
SO, THE QUANTUM PROBABILITIES
669
00:34:59,433 --> 00:35:01,567
AND THE MICROSCOPIC NATURE
670
00:35:01,567 --> 00:35:05,133
IS THE SOURCE OF ALL OUR LUCK
AND ALL OUR UNCERTAINTY
671
00:35:05,133 --> 00:35:06,700
AND ALL OUR RANDOMNESS
IN THE WORLD.
672
00:35:06,700 --> 00:35:09,800
WE REALLY DO NEED TO PREPARE
OURSELVES FOR ANYTHING.
673
00:35:09,800 --> 00:35:13,233
Freeman: BUT THERE IS
ANOTHER POSSIBILITY,
674
00:35:13,233 --> 00:35:17,700
A POSSIBILITY THAT WILL CHANGE
THE WAY YOU LOOK AT THE WORLD.
675
00:35:17,700 --> 00:35:19,400
ACCORDING TO THIS MAN,
676
00:35:19,400 --> 00:35:22,100
THERE ARE COUNTLESS
OTHER VERSIONS OF YOU
677
00:35:22,100 --> 00:35:24,367
WITH MANY DIFFERENT FATES.
678
00:35:29,100 --> 00:35:32,133
HAVE YOU EVER WONDERED HOW
YOUR LIFE WOULD HAVE TURNED OUT
679
00:35:32,133 --> 00:35:35,900
IF THINGS HAD HAPPENED
JUST A LITTLE DIFFERENTLY?
680
00:35:35,900 --> 00:35:38,567
ONE OF TWO SMALL TWISTS OF FATE
681
00:35:38,567 --> 00:35:43,300
COULD HAVE RESULTED IN YOUR
FOLLOWING A VERY DIFFERENT PATH.
682
00:35:43,300 --> 00:35:45,300
WHAT IF YOU ACTUALLY FOLLOWED
683
00:35:45,300 --> 00:35:49,600
ALL OF THOSE PATHS
IN PARALLEL WORLDS?
684
00:35:49,600 --> 00:35:53,467
THERE MAY BE MANY OTHER VERSIONS
OF YOU OUT THERE
685
00:35:53,467 --> 00:35:57,067
LIVING VERY DIFFERENT LIVES.
686
00:36:02,100 --> 00:36:06,300
MAX TEGMARK IS
A COSMOLOGY PROFESSOR AT M.I.T.
687
00:36:06,300 --> 00:36:07,967
HE STRONGLY BELIEVES
688
00:36:07,967 --> 00:36:11,667
LUCK DOES NOT DETERMINE
THE COURSE OF OUR LIVES.
689
00:36:11,667 --> 00:36:15,467
THE PROOF, HE SAYS,
LIES IN THE STRANGE ABILITY
690
00:36:15,467 --> 00:36:20,967
OF QUANTUM OBJECTS TO EXIST
IN MANY PLACES AT ONCE.
691
00:36:20,967 --> 00:36:22,967
Tegmark: WE KNOW
THAT ELEMENTARY PARTICLES
692
00:36:22,967 --> 00:36:24,667
CAN BE IN TWO PLACES AT ONCE.
693
00:36:24,667 --> 00:36:26,833
BUT I'M MADE OUT
OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES,
694
00:36:26,833 --> 00:36:29,467
SO I SHOULD ALSO BE ABLE TO BE
IN TWO PLACES AT ONCE.
695
00:36:29,467 --> 00:36:33,900
Freeman: QUANTUM OBJECTS OCCUPY
A RANGE OF POSSIBILITIES.
696
00:36:33,900 --> 00:36:37,167
THEY LOOK LIKE WAVES
UNTIL WE MEASURE THEM.
697
00:36:37,167 --> 00:36:40,067
THEN THEY TURN INTO PARTICLES.
698
00:36:40,067 --> 00:36:44,333
THIS MEANS THEY ARE
IN MANY PLACES SIMULTANEOUSLY
699
00:36:44,333 --> 00:36:48,367
UNTIL THEY SUDDENLY BECOME
FIXED POINTS IN SPACE.
700
00:36:48,367 --> 00:36:50,933
THIS STRANGE BEHAVIOR IS CALLED
701
00:36:50,933 --> 00:36:54,300
"THE COLLAPSE
OF THE WAVE FUNCTION."
702
00:36:54,300 --> 00:36:58,867
MAX BELIEVES THE WAVE FUNCTION
NEVER REALLY COLLAPSES.
703
00:36:58,867 --> 00:37:02,700
AN ELECTRON MAY APPEAR TO BE
OVER HERE IN OUR MEASUREMENT,
704
00:37:02,700 --> 00:37:06,567
BUT EVERY OTHER OUTCOME
ALSO OCCURS
705
00:37:06,567 --> 00:37:09,067
IN A SERIES
OF PARALLEL UNIVERSES
706
00:37:09,067 --> 00:37:12,633
THAT BRANCH OFF FROM OURS.
707
00:37:12,633 --> 00:37:16,600
THERE ARE MANY PROCESSES, LIKE
WHEN YOU MAKE A SNAP DECISION,
708
00:37:16,600 --> 00:37:18,067
WHICH MIGHT DEPEND ON
709
00:37:18,067 --> 00:37:21,333
JUST WHAT ONE LITTLE PARTICLE
ULTIMATELY DID IN YOUR BRAIN.
710
00:37:21,333 --> 00:37:25,767
SO IF THAT LITTLE PARTICLE
WAS IN TWO PLACES AT ONCE,
711
00:37:25,767 --> 00:37:30,867
MY LIFE SORT OF BRANCHES OUT
INTO MULTIPLE STORY LINES.
712
00:37:30,867 --> 00:37:35,200
Freeman: IF THE QUANTUM WAVE
NEVER COLLAPSES,
713
00:37:35,200 --> 00:37:38,133
IT MEANS YOU HAVE
COUNTLESS CLONES.
714
00:37:38,133 --> 00:37:42,733
THEY EXIST ON TOP OF EACH OTHER
IN PARALLEL UNIVERSES.
715
00:37:42,733 --> 00:37:45,967
THESE ARE NOT
THE SIDE-BY-SIDE UNIVERSES
716
00:37:45,967 --> 00:37:48,300
ANDREAS ALBRECHT IMAGINES.
717
00:37:48,300 --> 00:37:51,567
THEY ARE ALL THE POSSIBLE
ALTERNATE VERSIONS
718
00:37:51,567 --> 00:37:54,367
OF OUR OWN UNIVERSE.
719
00:37:54,367 --> 00:37:58,633
SO, FOR EXAMPLE, IF YOU TAKE
ANY HUNDRED MAXES
720
00:37:58,633 --> 00:38:02,267
AND ANY HUNDRED
PARALLEL UNIVERSES,
721
00:38:02,267 --> 00:38:07,267
THE LAWS OF PROBABILITY TELL US
THAT SOME WILL LIVE 100 YEARS,
722
00:38:07,267 --> 00:38:10,133
AND SOME ARE ALREADY DEAD.
723
00:38:10,133 --> 00:38:12,633
MAX'S FATE ALL DEPENDS
724
00:38:12,633 --> 00:38:16,067
ON WHICH QUANTUM REALITY
HE HAPPENS TO LIVE IN.
725
00:38:16,067 --> 00:38:18,300
BUT HERE'S THE CATCH.
726
00:38:18,300 --> 00:38:20,433
HE WILL NEVER KNOW
727
00:38:20,433 --> 00:38:24,200
WHAT'S HAPPENING
TO ALL THOSE OTHER MAXES.
728
00:38:26,933 --> 00:38:30,567
Tegmark: SUPPOSE YOU SEDATE ME
AND MAKE A PERFECT CLONE OF ME
729
00:38:30,567 --> 00:38:32,567
AND LEAVE ONE COPY
HERE ON THIS BED
730
00:38:32,567 --> 00:38:36,400
AND ANOTHER COPY
IN AN IDENTICAL ROOM UPSTAIRS.
731
00:38:36,400 --> 00:38:38,767
YOU TELL ME ALL ABOUT THIS
IN ADVANCE, AND YOU ASK ME
732
00:38:38,767 --> 00:38:40,700
"WHERE, MAX,
ARE YOU GONNA WAKE UP?"
733
00:38:40,700 --> 00:38:44,067
WELL, IF YOU WERE ME,
WHAT WOULD YOU SAY?
734
00:38:44,067 --> 00:38:46,767
THERE ARE GONNA BE
TWO MAX TEGMARKS WAKING UP.
735
00:38:46,767 --> 00:38:48,633
THEY'RE BOTH GONNA LOOK
THE SAME.
736
00:38:48,633 --> 00:38:50,233
THEY'RE BOTH GONNA FEEL
THE SAME.
737
00:38:50,233 --> 00:38:53,233
THEY'RE BOTH GONNA HAVE THE SAME
MEMORIES UP UNTIL THE SEDATION.
738
00:38:53,233 --> 00:38:55,267
EACH OF THE ME'S IS GONNA FEEL,
739
00:38:55,267 --> 00:38:58,567
"HUH, I HAVE WOKEN UP
IN ONLY ONE ROOM"...
740
00:38:58,567 --> 00:39:00,133
[ LOCK CLICKS ]
741
00:39:00,133 --> 00:39:02,567
...WHOSE NUMBER IS GONNA SEEM
LIKE A RANDOM NUMBER TO ME
742
00:39:02,567 --> 00:39:03,833
WHEN I GO OUT AND LOOK AT IT.
743
00:39:03,833 --> 00:39:06,867
AND THERE'S NO WAY FOR ME
TO PREDICT
744
00:39:06,867 --> 00:39:10,433
WHAT THAT ROOM NUMBER IS
GONNA SAY AHEAD OF TIME.
745
00:39:10,433 --> 00:39:14,767
SO I CAN NEVER SEE
THOSE OTHER MAX CLONES.
746
00:39:14,767 --> 00:39:18,400
ALL I NOTICE IS
THIS APPARENT RANDOMNESS.
747
00:39:18,400 --> 00:39:21,800
Freeman: MAX BELIEVES OUR
IGNORANCE OF THE OTHER REALITIES
748
00:39:21,800 --> 00:39:25,733
CREATES THE ILLUSION
WE CALL "LUCK."
749
00:39:25,733 --> 00:39:28,600
LUCK AND RANDOMNESS AREN'T REAL.
750
00:39:28,600 --> 00:39:30,467
SOME THINGS FEEL RANDOM,
751
00:39:30,467 --> 00:39:32,700
BUT THAT'S JUST HOW IT
SUBJECTIVELY FEELS
752
00:39:32,700 --> 00:39:34,633
WHENEVER YOU GET CLONED.
753
00:39:34,633 --> 00:39:38,133
AND YOU GET CLONED ALL THE TIME.
754
00:39:38,133 --> 00:39:40,333
THERE ARE ACTUALLY
TWO COPIES OF ME,
755
00:39:40,333 --> 00:39:42,867
EACH EXPERIENCING
ONE OF THE TWO OUTCOMES.
756
00:39:42,867 --> 00:39:45,800
SO IF YOU WIN
AT THE ROULETTE WHEEL,
757
00:39:45,800 --> 00:39:48,433
THERE'S A CLONE OF YOU WHO LOST.
758
00:39:48,433 --> 00:39:52,233
THERE IS NO LUCK, JUST CLONING.
759
00:39:53,833 --> 00:39:56,800
Freeman:
THIS IDEA MAY SOUND FARFETCHED
760
00:39:56,800 --> 00:39:58,700
AND IMPOSSIBLE TO CONFIRM,
761
00:39:58,700 --> 00:40:02,233
BUT MAX THINKS HIS ODDS
ARE NOT ZERO.
762
00:40:02,233 --> 00:40:05,067
HE HAS
A ONE-IN-A-QUINTILLION CHANCE
763
00:40:05,067 --> 00:40:07,633
OF PROVING THE THEORY TRUE.
764
00:40:07,633 --> 00:40:10,433
ALL HE HAS TO DO IS NEVER DIE.
765
00:40:10,433 --> 00:40:11,767
YEAH!
766
00:40:11,767 --> 00:40:15,900
Freeman: LET'S SAY MAX ENDURES
A SERIES OF CATASTROPHES,
767
00:40:15,900 --> 00:40:19,033
EVENTS THAT HAVE
A 50% CHANCE OF KILLING HIM,
768
00:40:19,033 --> 00:40:20,633
ONE AFTER THE OTHER.
769
00:40:20,633 --> 00:40:24,000
IN ONE PARALLEL UNIVERSE,
HE DIES.
770
00:40:24,000 --> 00:40:26,300
IN OTHER, HE LIVES.
771
00:40:26,300 --> 00:40:28,300
Tegmark: IF THE WAVE FUNCTION
NEVER COLLAPSES,
772
00:40:28,300 --> 00:40:30,733
THEN THERE WILL BE TWO VERSIONS
OF ME --
773
00:40:30,733 --> 00:40:34,000
ONE WHERE I'M ALIVE AND
ANOTHER ONE WHERE I'M FLATTENED.
774
00:40:34,000 --> 00:40:37,467
BUT THERE WILL ONLY BE ON MAX
HAVING A CONSCIOUS EXPERIENCE.
775
00:40:37,467 --> 00:40:40,567
Freeman:
AS THE CATASTROPHES CONTINUE,
776
00:40:40,567 --> 00:40:43,867
THE ODDS OF A VERSION OF MAX
SURVIVING
777
00:40:43,867 --> 00:40:51,167
DROP FROM 25% TO 12.5%
TO 6.25% AND SO ON.
778
00:40:51,167 --> 00:40:55,833
IN MORE AND MORE PARALLEL
WORLDS, MAX IS DEAD.
779
00:40:55,833 --> 00:40:58,533
BUT IN ONE, HE SURVIVES.
780
00:40:58,533 --> 00:40:59,633
WHOA.
781
00:40:59,633 --> 00:41:01,800
IT'S GONNA FEEL SUBJECTIVELY
TO ME
782
00:41:01,800 --> 00:41:04,600
LIKE I JUST KEEP SURVIVING
AND SURVIVING AND SURVIVING,
783
00:41:04,600 --> 00:41:07,500
WHICH WOULD FEEL
REALLY, REALLY WEIRD.
784
00:41:07,500 --> 00:41:09,433
Freeman:
IF A VERSION OF MAX
785
00:41:09,433 --> 00:41:12,567
SOMEHOW SURVIVES
60 DEADLY EVENTS,
786
00:41:12,567 --> 00:41:16,067
THERE IS ONLY
A ONE-IN-QUINTILLION CHANCE
787
00:41:16,067 --> 00:41:17,533
THE THEORY IS WRONG.
788
00:41:17,533 --> 00:41:22,400
UNFORTUNATELY, ONLY ONE VERSION
OF MAX WILL KNOW THE TRUTH.
789
00:41:22,400 --> 00:41:28,333
THE OTHER QUINTILLION MINUS ONE
WILL BE DEAD.
790
00:41:30,100 --> 00:41:35,800
SO THE REALITY OR UNREALITY
OF MULTIPLE MAX TEGMARKS
791
00:41:35,800 --> 00:41:38,367
MAY REMAIN IN DOUBT.
792
00:41:38,367 --> 00:41:41,400
Tegmark: THIS IDEA THAT REALITY
IS BIGGER THAN WE THOUGHT
793
00:41:41,400 --> 00:41:44,167
AND THAT WHENEVER YOU LOSE
AT THE ROULETTE WHEEL,
794
00:41:44,167 --> 00:41:46,067
THERE WAS ANOTHER VERSION OF YOU
THAT WON
795
00:41:46,067 --> 00:41:48,733
IS A VERY WEIRD-SOUNDING IDEA.
796
00:41:48,733 --> 00:41:51,933
BUT, HEY, WHO ARE WE HUMANS TO
TELL THE UNIVERSE HOW TO BEHAVE?
797
00:41:51,933 --> 00:41:54,167
YOU KNOW,
MY JOB AS A PHYSICIST
798
00:41:54,167 --> 00:41:57,333
ISN'T TO TRY TO IMPOSE
MY PREJUDICES ON REALITY,
799
00:41:57,333 --> 00:41:59,733
BUT TO LOOK CAREFULLY
AT REALITY
800
00:41:59,733 --> 00:42:01,967
AND TRY TO FIGURE OUT
HOW IT ACTUALLY BEHAVES.
801
00:42:01,967 --> 00:42:05,733
AND IT SEEMS TO BE
WHAT YOU MIGHT CALL WEIRD.
802
00:42:10,200 --> 00:42:15,567
WHETHER THERE JUST ONE UNIVERSE
OR COUNTLESS PARALLEL ONES,
803
00:42:15,567 --> 00:42:18,800
THERE'S NO WAY OF KNOWING
WHICH PATH YOU WILL TAKE
804
00:42:18,800 --> 00:42:21,267
THROUGH ALL
YOUR POSSIBLE DESTINIES.
805
00:42:21,267 --> 00:42:24,567
YOUR CONSCIOUSNESS, YOUR DNA,
806
00:42:24,567 --> 00:42:27,600
AND THE VERY ATOMS
YOU ARE BUILT FROM
807
00:42:27,600 --> 00:42:32,367
ARE ALL ON A WILD
AND UNPREDICTABLE RIDE.
808
00:42:32,367 --> 00:42:36,733
AND EVERY DECISION...
IS A GAMBLE.
65002
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