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- [Man] T-minus 10, nine, eight, seven,
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six, five, four, three.
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00:00:04,850 --> 00:00:07,103
- There's a border that all of us share.
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And it keeps getting closer and closer.
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It's right above our heads.
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But it's not a border
between two countries,
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it's actually a boundary to a place
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that used to be accessible
to just a few of us,
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but now more and more of
us can cross this boundary.
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- [Reporter] What's been dubbed
the billionaire space race.
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- And as that happens,
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we humans risk messing it up.
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We risk sealing this border completely
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so no person or object can escape earth.
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I want to show you how this might happen
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and what we can do to avoid it.
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- [Woman] Long-term simulations
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show an exponential growth
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in the number of objects in space.
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- This is low earth orbit.
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It's a zone about a thousand
kilometers above earth.
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This is a place where earth's gravity
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can kind of pull you down,
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but just enough to put you
into a perpetual free fall
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that we call an orbit.
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Satellites we send into space
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can orbit earth as far out
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as tens of thousands of kilometers,
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but it is in this low earth orbit
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where a majority of
earth's satellites reside.
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The satellites here give
us images like these
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from telescopes like this.
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They also allow us to
anticipate hurricanes,
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and observe trends like these.
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These satellites gave
us the satellite phone.
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- Who has the satellite phone?
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- They connect people to the internet,
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and they help us map the world,
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which is something I am very grateful for.
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The satellites in low earth
orbit are incredibly important.
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Okay so how many satellites are up there?
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Like 50 or maybe 100?
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Let's see, how many, I'm Googling
on my phone, let's check.
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6,000?
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6,000?
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Whoa, okay.
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So there's 6,000 satellites
floating around the earth.
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Turns out that half of those are dead.
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They used to be satellites,
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now they're just hunks of metal
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the size of a small school bus
spinning around our planet.
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Of the 3,000 or so working satellites,
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some are military, some are government,
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but more than half of them are commercial.
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Sorry, did that land?
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Let me just say it again.
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Half of the satellites are commercial,
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they're from private companies.
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Let me explain why that's a big deal.
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For most of the time that
we've been traveling to space,
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space has been a government thing.
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It was Russia that put
up the first satellite
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into low earth orbit in the '50s.
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It was the Cold War so the U.S.
was like we can do that too,
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and we're gonna do it better,
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so they created NASA, and focused
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on getting as many
satellites as they could
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up into space.
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- We need science,
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this is for the American people,
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the most critical problem of all.
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- A bunch of these launches
just sort of blew up
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because they were really terribly made,
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but eventually they got
satellites into space.
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They had something to prove.
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Space was a political thing at the time.
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- President Eisenhower
reassures the nation
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that Russia's success
with the first satellite
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does not indicate a serious lag
in American rocket research.
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- And the U.S. poured tons of
money into making this happen,
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and they did.
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- Our satellite is definitely on orbit.
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- So at this point space
was a government thing,
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but boy has that changed.
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(upbeat music)
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In recent years there
has been an explosion
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of satellites being put into space
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that are not from the
government or military,
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but from private businesses,
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to the point where today in 2021
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there are over 100 private companies
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that are building vehicles to
take more stuff into space.
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This is a space economy, it's a big deal.
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And because of that, more and more stuff
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is going into space.
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This year, 2021, we've already launched
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1100 objects into space.
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That's the same total as
we did in all of 2020,
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and nearly 10% of what we've
ever sent up into space.
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The numbers are going up
faster and faster and faster
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every single year.
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But there's a problem,
potentially a huge problem
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with all of this stuff
going up into space,
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and that problem is that space,
at least low earth orbit,
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this area right around
our earth is limited.
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Let me explain what I mean here.
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You have all of these objects
floating around our earth.
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More and more every year.
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So what happens if two of these satellites
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by chance collide?
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So what?
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Satellites collide and maybe
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some rich company loses
some money, who cares?
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No, no no no no no, no no no no.
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Reminder that these objects
are flying around earth
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at 28,000 kilometers an hour,
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that's eight kilometers a second.
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That's one second, eight kilometers.
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They go around earth 12 times per day.
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And at that speed, things
get a little bit crazy.
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A few years ago, a fleck of debris,
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like a little piece of dust
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that was one millimeter in diameter,
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like the tip of a sharp
pencil, a tiny fleck,
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was floating through low
earth orbit at this speed,
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and it hit a satellite's solar panels.
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And this tiny fleck of dust
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left a giant gash in the panels.
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It was one millimeter in diameter.
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In 2009, a collision between
a defunct Russian space craft
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and an operational commercial satellite
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created this exact kind of shrapnel cloud,
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completely disintegrated.
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More than 2,300 hunks of space junk
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that are now floating around our planet
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at 28,000 kilometers an hour.
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This shrapnel at one point put
the Hubble Telescope at risk,
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and it sort of freaked people out.
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In an instant, two objects
turned into thousands of objects,
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all with new paths
floating around our earth.
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So the fear here is that
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what if this became a chain reaction?
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One collision makes more debris
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which leads to another collision
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which means even more
debris, and more collisions,
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and suddenly low earth orbit
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becomes a minefield of space junk
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hurling around our
planet at deathly speeds
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and launches a domino effect
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that would wipe out our
space infrastructure
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leaving us trapped on the surface of earth
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for generations beneath a violent cloud
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of speeding shrapnel.
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Unable to send anything up to
space for a very long time.
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This is the nightmare scenario.
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It's a scenario that's
portrayed in the movie Gravity
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which is a very good movie.
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193
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All right, let's get
back to space borders.
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Eventually of course, over the years,
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this debris would slowly
fall into the atmosphere,
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it would lose altitude,
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and it would burn up in our atmosphere.
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But that would be generations
of a world without satellites.
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A world that is sealed from space.
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Okay okay listen listen,
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this is not gonna happen anytime soon,
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by all counts we are safe
from the chain reaction,
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the probabilities are very low.
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It isn't likely right now.
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There's a lot of space up there.
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- [Man] Space, the final frontier.
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- But we are sending up
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thousands of satellites per year now.
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This may not be an issue now,
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it certainly will be soon.
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So what do you do with this?
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We're in the midst of this new space race,
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just like the one between the Soviets
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and the U.S. in the '50s
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but this time it's not governments,
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it's like this guy,
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and a bunch of guys just like him.
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And they're the ones
who are racing to space,
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and they don't really care about
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the potential scenario
of a chain reaction.
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Do you know why?
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Because they have investors to please,
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and a world to show that they can
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privatize space the fastest.
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(laughing)
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So let's talk about the U.S.
government really quick.
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Of the 3,000 working satellites,
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about 2,000 of them are American.
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They come from American companies
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or the American government.
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So you would expect the American
space government agency,
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NASA, to be the responsible steward
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of low earth orbit,
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and make sure that these
private space companies
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are at least following some traffic rules
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when they send them up into space
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so that they don't collide.
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Alas, no one, including NASA,
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wants to be the one to slow
down the new space race.
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Instead they are focusing on quote,
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accelerating a thriving commercial economy
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in low earth orbit.
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The U.S. government is sort of doing
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what it did in the '50s,
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we've got a get an edge
on this new space thing
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and let's focus on just getting
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as much stuff up as we can.
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So NASA is helping to fund
these private space companies
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who are sending up so many satellites
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and objects into space.
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Like SpaceX, Elon Musk's company
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is sending up 60 satellites a month.
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60 satellites just being
thrust into space every month,
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and he's asked for a lot more.
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He wants to get 42,000 up there.
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That's what he's asking for,
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that's what he's asking for approval for,
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42,000, just 42,000.
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So far he's gotten approval for 12,000.
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Amazon is now getting into the space game.
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They've been approved
to send up over 3,000.
262
00:10:53,390 --> 00:10:54,960
We're not slowing down.
263
00:10:54,960 --> 00:10:56,990
So clearly the race is on,
264
00:10:56,990 --> 00:10:59,830
and no one's thinking
too hard about traffic.
265
00:10:59,830 --> 00:11:01,800
- You're blaming me for the traffic?
266
00:11:01,800 --> 00:11:02,633
- Should I?
267
00:11:02,633 --> 00:11:06,000
- So how do we avoid
filling up low earth orbit?
268
00:11:06,000 --> 00:11:07,370
And avoid the collisions
269
00:11:07,370 --> 00:11:09,060
that could potentially cause
270
00:11:09,060 --> 00:11:10,800
a devastating chain reaction.
271
00:11:10,800 --> 00:11:12,810
These companies are taking some protocol,
272
00:11:12,810 --> 00:11:14,900
like SpaceX will send up these satellites
273
00:11:14,900 --> 00:11:15,960
in like a caravan,
274
00:11:15,960 --> 00:11:17,970
like a line of satellites
275
00:11:17,970 --> 00:11:19,550
which looks really trippy by the way.
276
00:11:19,550 --> 00:11:23,160
I was out stargazing for
my galaxy video last year
277
00:11:23,160 --> 00:11:27,000
and I looked up and I saw
this like perfect line
278
00:11:27,000 --> 00:11:29,950
of blinking dots in the sky
279
00:11:29,950 --> 00:11:32,103
and I was like what is happening?
280
00:11:33,670 --> 00:11:35,310
I was sure that I was seeing a UFO,
281
00:11:35,310 --> 00:11:37,073
like this is it.
282
00:11:37,073 --> 00:11:41,630
Like I've had my encounter
with extra terrestrials.
283
00:11:41,630 --> 00:11:42,970
It was like an existential moment for me,
284
00:11:42,970 --> 00:11:44,760
I was like what is happening?
285
00:11:44,760 --> 00:11:46,390
20 minutes later I looked it up
286
00:11:46,390 --> 00:11:50,803
and learned about the
caravans that SpaceX does.
287
00:11:52,370 --> 00:11:54,530
They do this so that all of the satellites
288
00:11:54,530 --> 00:11:55,830
are in the same path
289
00:11:55,830 --> 00:11:58,630
so that they have way less
likelihood of colliding
290
00:11:58,630 --> 00:11:59,950
because they're not just on random paths
291
00:11:59,950 --> 00:12:00,950
they're like all together.
292
00:12:00,950 --> 00:12:02,060
So yeah these private companies
293
00:12:02,060 --> 00:12:03,530
are taking some precautions,
294
00:12:03,530 --> 00:12:04,480
but as we all know,
295
00:12:04,480 --> 00:12:06,610
you can't rely on private companies
296
00:12:06,610 --> 00:12:09,170
to regulate themselves
for the good of everyone.
297
00:12:09,170 --> 00:12:11,110
Like, are we really gonna be like
298
00:12:12,432 --> 00:12:13,370
you guys regulate yourself
299
00:12:13,370 --> 00:12:16,369
and we'll all be safe and
everyone will be good, no.
300
00:12:16,369 --> 00:12:18,150
That's not how it works.
301
00:12:18,150 --> 00:12:21,190
What we need is mutually agreed upon laws
302
00:12:21,190 --> 00:12:24,630
on how stuff can be launched
into low earth orbit
303
00:12:24,630 --> 00:12:28,490
so that we actually have some
traffic management in space.
304
00:12:28,490 --> 00:12:32,300
There are no rules of the road in space,
305
00:12:32,300 --> 00:12:35,490
no formal agreements on
how traffic should behave
306
00:12:35,490 --> 00:12:36,870
in low earth orbit.
307
00:12:36,870 --> 00:12:39,783
In other words, this is the wild west.
308
00:12:41,000 --> 00:12:43,240
Wait, isn't there like space law?
309
00:12:43,240 --> 00:12:44,530
Like treaties?
310
00:12:44,530 --> 00:12:47,610
Like the outer space
treaty, the moon treaty,
311
00:12:47,610 --> 00:12:49,140
the International Space Station,
312
00:12:49,140 --> 00:12:51,840
yeah but none of these
things talk about traffic.
313
00:12:51,840 --> 00:12:53,580
All these countries have
signed these treaties
314
00:12:53,580 --> 00:12:55,890
that just say space is for everybody,
315
00:12:55,890 --> 00:12:58,750
no one can conquer space, no Star Wars.
316
00:12:58,750 --> 00:13:00,240
- That isn't very reassuring.
317
00:13:00,240 --> 00:13:02,310
- Closest any treaty gets to addressing
318
00:13:02,310 --> 00:13:03,760
the space traffic thing,
319
00:13:03,760 --> 00:13:06,570
says that quote, states shall be liable
320
00:13:06,570 --> 00:13:09,950
for damage caused by their space objects.
321
00:13:09,950 --> 00:13:12,370
In other words, if you send an object up,
322
00:13:12,370 --> 00:13:15,480
and your country damages an
object from another country,
323
00:13:15,480 --> 00:13:18,580
your country has to take
responsibility in some form.
324
00:13:18,580 --> 00:13:20,880
But wait, does that actually happen?
325
00:13:20,880 --> 00:13:23,100
Remember that defunct Russian space craft
326
00:13:23,100 --> 00:13:26,200
that collided with the
commercial satellite in 2009?
327
00:13:26,200 --> 00:13:28,050
Who took responsibility?
328
00:13:28,050 --> 00:13:29,840
And wait, was it the Russian satellite
329
00:13:29,840 --> 00:13:31,580
that hit the commercial one,
330
00:13:31,580 --> 00:13:34,630
or was it the commercial one
that hit the Russian one?
331
00:13:34,630 --> 00:13:36,640
Like how do you dole out responsibility
332
00:13:36,640 --> 00:13:39,427
and blame when you're talking about
333
00:13:39,427 --> 00:13:41,280
two satellites just floating through space
334
00:13:41,280 --> 00:13:42,870
who happen to run into each other.
335
00:13:42,870 --> 00:13:44,730
So in the end, the responsibility
336
00:13:44,730 --> 00:13:48,780
landed squarely on the
shoulders of, nobody.
337
00:13:48,780 --> 00:13:50,420
- How did we get into this mess?
338
00:13:50,420 --> 00:13:51,980
- Decision makers couldn't even agree
339
00:13:51,980 --> 00:13:53,360
on who was responsible
340
00:13:53,360 --> 00:13:55,770
for launching the commercial
satellite in the first place
341
00:13:55,770 --> 00:13:59,330
because multiple countries were
involved with launching it,
342
00:13:59,330 --> 00:14:01,270
and they hadn't registered it with the UN
343
00:14:01,270 --> 00:14:04,860
like they promised they would
back in some treaty in 1972.
344
00:14:04,860 --> 00:14:07,010
I mean it's a total mess.
345
00:14:07,010 --> 00:14:12,010
There is no order or regulation
or clarity in space law,
346
00:14:12,250 --> 00:14:15,440
which right now is fine,
but soon it won't be.
347
00:14:15,440 --> 00:14:17,980
So here we are with no traffic rules,
348
00:14:17,980 --> 00:14:20,370
no history of holding anyone accountable
349
00:14:20,370 --> 00:14:22,440
for unintentional space collisions,
350
00:14:22,440 --> 00:14:23,720
and we're about to send up
351
00:14:23,720 --> 00:14:26,060
tens of thousands more satellites.
352
00:14:26,060 --> 00:14:29,300
What we need is productive cooperation,
353
00:14:29,300 --> 00:14:30,660
like humans have been able to do
354
00:14:30,660 --> 00:14:34,070
in so many aspects of our
global international system.
355
00:14:34,070 --> 00:14:36,580
The International Space
Station is a great example.
356
00:14:36,580 --> 00:14:37,800
It has functioned
357
00:14:37,800 --> 00:14:41,330
as a multi-national
collaborative project in space.
358
00:14:41,330 --> 00:14:43,520
Unfortunately what I've learned
359
00:14:43,520 --> 00:14:46,600
is that when there's
competition among countries,
360
00:14:46,600 --> 00:14:49,200
a lot of these cooperative efforts
361
00:14:49,200 --> 00:14:50,990
sort of go out the window.
362
00:14:50,990 --> 00:14:54,100
There is growing tension
between two super powers,
363
00:14:54,100 --> 00:14:55,870
China and the U.S.
364
00:14:55,870 --> 00:14:57,370
And China is in the middle of constructing
365
00:14:57,370 --> 00:15:00,350
their own space station
for low earth orbit.
366
00:15:00,350 --> 00:15:03,670
India is preparing to
send their own as well.
367
00:15:03,670 --> 00:15:06,180
This is competition, not cooperation.
368
00:15:06,180 --> 00:15:08,210
Our existing space law,
369
00:15:08,210 --> 00:15:11,360
which was all sort of drafted
in the '60s and the '70s
370
00:15:11,360 --> 00:15:13,960
never anticipated private companies
371
00:15:13,960 --> 00:15:16,910
sending up thousands of satellites.
372
00:15:16,910 --> 00:15:20,640
And it didn't anticipate
China and India and the U.S.
373
00:15:20,640 --> 00:15:23,900
Competing for space power.
374
00:15:23,900 --> 00:15:25,950
Our desire to explore space
375
00:15:25,950 --> 00:15:28,880
is not just about showing how powerful
376
00:15:28,880 --> 00:15:30,780
and innovative we are.
377
00:15:30,780 --> 00:15:35,290
So much technology has come
from our space exploration.
378
00:15:35,290 --> 00:15:38,900
From solar cells to cochlear implants,
379
00:15:38,900 --> 00:15:40,970
to firefighting technology.
380
00:15:40,970 --> 00:15:42,720
The development of the micro chip
381
00:15:42,720 --> 00:15:45,360
which was majorly accelerated by NASA,
382
00:15:45,360 --> 00:15:47,960
and now microchips drive our entire world.
383
00:15:47,960 --> 00:15:50,290
The pursuit of reaching out into space
384
00:15:50,290 --> 00:15:54,010
has consistently driven
meaningful innovation.
385
00:15:54,010 --> 00:15:55,580
So this is important,
386
00:15:55,580 --> 00:15:58,490
we should absolutely protect the future
387
00:15:58,490 --> 00:16:02,090
of this really wonderful
thing that humans have done.
388
00:16:02,090 --> 00:16:03,840
We've escaped our atmosphere,
389
00:16:03,840 --> 00:16:05,680
we've escaped gravity,
390
00:16:05,680 --> 00:16:07,740
and we've learned so much in the process.
391
00:16:07,740 --> 00:16:11,370
So, there are a lot of objects in space,
392
00:16:11,370 --> 00:16:12,573
they're floating around,
393
00:16:13,580 --> 00:16:16,580
and there is a body of treaties and law
394
00:16:16,580 --> 00:16:18,590
that is way outdated.
395
00:16:18,590 --> 00:16:21,930
My hope is that as we send
these thousands and thousands
396
00:16:21,930 --> 00:16:24,580
of satellites into space,
397
00:16:24,580 --> 00:16:27,060
we consider the
implications of what happens
398
00:16:27,060 --> 00:16:30,110
if we get too hasty,
send too much stuff up
399
00:16:30,110 --> 00:16:32,050
and things start to run into each other.
400
00:16:32,050 --> 00:16:34,010
It's not worth the risk in my mind.
401
00:16:34,010 --> 00:16:35,210
If we don't look ahead,
402
00:16:35,210 --> 00:16:37,590
we could turn space from a border
403
00:16:37,590 --> 00:16:39,750
that we can all cross together,
404
00:16:39,750 --> 00:16:41,640
and learn together as human beings,
405
00:16:41,640 --> 00:16:44,120
into a border that is impenetrable,
406
00:16:44,120 --> 00:16:46,758
that's dangerous, that keeps us trapped
407
00:16:46,758 --> 00:16:49,630
here on this warming planet,
408
00:16:49,630 --> 00:16:54,630
unable to continue to explore
the world of outer space.
409
00:16:54,769 --> 00:16:57,186
(soft music)
29678
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