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so just to very very briefly summarize what we know so far from the previous
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few lessons in the technical analysis module
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a bullish trend or bullish order flow in the market
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it is shown by structure forming a series of higher highs and higher lows
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so therefore a bearish trend or bearish order flow in the market is shown by
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structure forming a series of lower lows and lower highs and whenever price
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breaks structure with an expect what we expect a pullback on that time frame
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so then we looked at the concept of strong and weak highs and lows which is
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also based on the idea of expectational order flow
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so a strong low is a low that caused a high
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so if a swing low actually does its job by taking out a swing high and causing
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that break of structure if that low causes the higher high then we assume
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that is a strong low and it will now be protected because you know it took a lot
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of money in order to break that high so now there is a vested interest in those
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institutions right that they do not want to see that low break because they do
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not want to be stopped out of those positions
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so it is these strong swing lows are what make up the high lows in a
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bullish trending market and it is those higher lows that we are trying to catch
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and up and position ourselves in long to capitalize on that next bullish leg and
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once we are in that higher low we are then going to try and target price to
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make the next higher high so we're targeting that weak high being broken to
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form a higher high so obviously the exact opposite to that
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is a strong high and these are highs that did their job by causing lows so if
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a swing high does its job by taking out a swing low then we can assume that is a
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strong high and that high will be protected
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and these strong swing highs are what make up the lower highs in a bearish
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trending market and it is those lower highs that we are
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trying to catch and position ourselves in short to capitalize on that next
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bearish leg and we're trying to target price to take out that weak low right to
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make the next lower low now price can pull all the way back up
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to that swing high that lower high in a bearish market
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but we run with the assumption that price will not trade higher and it will
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not close above that swing high because it is a strong high and in
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theory that high should be protected to keep the bearish trend intact
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however eventually a strong high or a strong low
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it will of course be broken because trends do not last forever
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so a change of character is when we see a failure of expectational order flow
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because bullish structure starts changing to forming bearish structure
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right and vice versa so if price is trending to the upside in
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a bullish market and then we see that they swing low so what a strong low then
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gets taken out so that we see a swing bus a swing breaker structure to the
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downside then this first break of structure is defined as a change of
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character and we now have a confirmed bearish trend change because price has
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formed a lower low after a series of high lows
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however price can also just break minor structure so an emboss or substructure
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so an s boss and this can also be viewed as an
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internal change of character so a minor or substructure break it can
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signal that a swing run has ended and that the swing pullback has now started
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so then it can also signal when that swing pullback has now finished and the
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next swing run may be about to begin so that we can anticipate that the
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higher low in a bullish market may now be forming or a lower high in a bearish
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market may now be forming so this can obviously help us with our trading
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decisions but because minor and substructure
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breaks are not as significant as swing structure
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this means that changes of character based only on m bosses or s bosses they
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can give us full signals it can give a full signal that a swing
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run has ended or that a swing pullback has finished so what we can do is use
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other concepts you know techniques and tools in our analysis toolbox
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to help us build more confidence and more evidence to increase our ability
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to stay out of trading those full signals and those traps in the market so
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in turn you know actually increasing our strike rate on catching the true turning
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points and the true continuations in the market
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now one of those tools that we just looked at in the last lesson was the
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concept of premium and discount pricing and we can see that waiting for price to
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pull back into discount prices in a bullish trend will lead to a higher
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probability of that change of character being a true signal that that swing
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higher low has actually formed and obviously if price was in a bearish
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trend it would be the opposite right so we'd be waiting for price to pull back
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into those premium prices that will lead to a higher probability of that change
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of character being a true signal that the lower high the swing lower high has
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actually formed and that the bearish trend is ready to continue
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now in this lesson we're going to add an even more powerful tool to our toolbox
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by harnessing the power of market structure by looking at multiple time
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frames together so multi-timeframe analysis is pretty
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much what it says on the tin right it's when you analyze multiple time frame
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charts together so using multiple time frames in
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conjunction with each other it's pretty much like seeing a completely new
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dimension of price action which can dramatically alter your perception of
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the data so when you master this you will
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significantly improve your trading returns because you will improve both
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your strike rate and the average risk to reward that you can actually achieve in
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the market so multiple time frames gives you the
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whole complete picture compared to just using one time frame which is what we
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have done so far so analyzing multiple time frames
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effectively what it's going to do is it's going to give you that time to
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enter a trend just as it's about to begin so you can get right in at the
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start but it will also provide the indication that you maybe need to exit
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your position just before that trend or that run is about to come to an end
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so developing the skill is going to really allow you to capture those huge
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high time frame moves you know potentially those weekly or even monthly
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runs but you are entering with the accuracy
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and the precision of timing your entry on the intraday time frames those lower
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time frames even all the way down to the second time frames and that's how you
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achieve those huge risk to award trades so on the weekly time frame one weekly
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candlestick will contain the price action of five daily candlesticks
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30 4-hour candlesticks and 120 one-hour candlesticks
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so obviously one daily candle will be made up of 24 hours worth of price
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action and so on so you can clearly see that you know as
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you start from those higher time frames then you work your way down and down
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going lower will give you more price action which is going to give you more
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information and therefore it's going to give you more confirmation
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so you can be extremely accurate with your entry points and your analysis but
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whilst making sure that you are still trading with the overall higher
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timeframe bias and you're still trading with the dominant trend of the higher
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time frames on our side so time really is power
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now the longer that a setup has to marinate you know the more powerful and
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delicious the move will be right it's a bit of a horrible analogy but that's
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essentially kind of how it makes sense in my head so essentially the more
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orders and liquidity that have been stacked over time to then fuel that
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large move so for this reason analysis on the
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higher time frames always takes precedence over analysis on the lower
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time frames so the monthly time frame is more
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significant than the weekly time frame the weekly is more significant than the
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daily the day is more significant than the four hour for more than the one hour
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right and so on all the way down to the minutes and the seconds time frames
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so this is why we always always always take a top down approach
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so we always start analysis on the higher time frames to develop our higher
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time frame bias and then we slowly work our way down to refine and refine and
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increasing our timing accuracy now the higher time frames are not
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necessarily a specific time frame it is just any time frame that is essentially
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higher than the one that you were looking at and the same goes for the
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lower time frames and it's going to be different for every trader depending on
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their own unique trading style now the reason that we use candlestick
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charts in our analysis is due to their unique ability to condense a vast amount
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of information into a small neat and manageable graphic display
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so by analyzing what is essentially just a colored shape on your screen
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you can interpret tons of stuff you can interpret direction acceleration
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deceleration strength weakness choppiness you know where there's supply
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where there's demand and where there is liquidity amongst many other things
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within the market all just from analyzing candlesticks on
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a chart but the paradox with candlesticks
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however is that their greater strength is also their greatest weakness because
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by condensing a large amount of price information into a manageable visual
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display those candles lose a lot of important
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data that occurs within the lower time frames
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and it's this data loss that can often cause misleading signals or fail to
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provide a signal when necessary so you can kind of think of candles as
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representing the tip of an iceberg so while they provide you know a really
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excellent sign of what is ahead there is a lot more that looks beneath the
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surface so for the most part you know the
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exposed tip of an iceberg is enough for the captain of a ship to you know
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recognize the near the the need to steer around it but every now and then an
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iceberg will remain fully submerged below the water and provide no
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indication of its existence above the surface
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so without appearing below the water the captain's likely to steer a ship and
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crash straight into it right so in trading using a lower time frame
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is the same as peering below the surface and the more time that you spend in
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front of your charts the more you will really realize that all of the time
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frames are very intimately connected to each other
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so when price is trending right we've seen
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this a million times out in this case a bullish trend price moves up it pulls
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back to form a higher low and then it breaks structure again to the upside to
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form a higher high and so on now each of these movements up and down
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are called runs so price impulse is up and then it corrects back and then
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impulses up again and then it retraces back right and that is the heartbeat of
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the market now collectively all of these runs
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together make up what we then call a trend
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now are you ready for what is the major
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major major key in unlocking the secrets to
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understanding and harnessing the extreme power of multi-time frame analysis
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you are fantastic well the secret source here is
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that a run on a higher time frame is a trend on a lower time frame
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so a run on a higher time frame is a trend on a lower time frame
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sounds pretty simple right well when you get your head around this and when you
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fully fully understand on the charts it is when the power of multi-timeframe
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analysis will really start to click and you will massively increase both your
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strike rate and your reward to risk ratio at the same time which is the holy
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grail in trading right increasing both of those simultaneously
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so price action ultimately forms the candles and the price action on the next
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highest time frame so we use the price action on the higher
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time frames to predict the next phase of the market
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so whether that phase is a pro-trend run or whether that phase is just a counter
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trend pullback it's those phases that are made up of
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price action back on the lower time frames
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so those higher time frame runs they are made up of lower time frame price action
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and then that then forms the higher time frame candles and market structure which
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we can then use in our analysis to help us forecast the next hard time frame run
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so that's essentially the cycle of multi-time frame analysis that is the
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fractal order flow so we analyze the higher time frames so
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that we can forecast those large runs and trends but we then drop down and
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then we analyze the lower time frames to not only to help us time our trade
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entries and our exits with a lot more accuracy
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but we also use them to confirm what may be happening on the higher time frames
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so this really is essentially the secret source of how we achieve the holy grail
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of a high reward to risk and a high strike rate strategy so what happens on
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the higher time frame first must happen on the lower time frame so let's take a
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few examples and we're quickly going to go on the charts so if you are sitting
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in a dark room with your brightness turned up my charts are unfortunately
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white so just you may want to turn down your brightness so you don't blind your
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eyes you have been warned okay so we have seen that a run on a
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higher time frame is a trend on a lower timeframe so what does that actually
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mean in reality well as we now know right what do we have when we have a
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bullish trend we have a series of higher highs we pull back to form what maybe
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potentially be a higher low which is then confirmed when we break that high
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we break that swing high we break structure to form a higher high we pull
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back to form a higher low we make a series of higher highs higher lows
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higher highs and then when that high low is broken and we form a lower low that
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is then when we get a confirmed trend change and then we pull back to form a
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higher high lower low higher high and lower low now each of those phases so
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the pro trend run the counter trend pullback the pro train run the counter
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trend run the ball called runs right each individual part is called a run and
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overall that will give us our higher time frame trend right so in this
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example the blue line is our high time frame structure
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so again higher time frame can be any single time frame it's just higher than
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the one then the other time frame you will be
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comparing it to right the lower time frame is the one in the orange line
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so like i was saying we have those pro chain runs and then there's pull backs
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which also runs um and they collectively make up a trend and then again we have
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the pro trend run is now bearish the pullback is a counter trend run and that
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makes a overall bearish trend right
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now on the lower time frames that bullish leg right where the higher time
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frame is forming higher highs it will also be forming higher highs and higher
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lows on the lower time frame but because price is fractal what you
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will see is price will make higher highs higher lows higher highs higher lows and
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higher highs now as the higher time frame wants to have a pullback right
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what may happen depending on what lower timeframe you're
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looking at is a lower time frame we'll switch trend in order to facilitate the
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higher time frame to pull back so then you see that we take that low out right
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we get that first change of character with a lower time frame then switch is
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bearish we get a confirmed double low lower high and lower low however that
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bearish trend on the lower time frame is reasonably short-lived why because the
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higher time frame is bullish and it was just a pullback right it was just a
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counter trend higher timeframe pullback whilst the lower time frames were
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bullish now when we expect a higher time frame
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high low to form what do we expect in the lower time
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frames to give us confirmation that this may be forming because remember a higher
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time frame or a low on any time frame right so a higher low is never confirmed
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until we get that break of structure so we never know where it's going to be but
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what can we use to potentially confirm we can look for a change of character
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but more specifically in this case we can look for that change of trend on the
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lower time frame the orange line here where we get that higher high we get the
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pull back and then we get the higher time for a break of structure right and
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we continue to form that series of higher highs and then again price starts
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to end the hard time frame run after the hard time frame break of structure what
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do we expect we expect a higher timeframe pullback now what can the
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lower timeframes do it can then change trend to show or confirm that the hard
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time frame pullback is now commencing it's a lower time frame now switch is
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bearish lower high lower low lower high lower low and then it switches bullish
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again giving us a signal that the pullback may be over the hard time frame
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pull back be over the lower time frame now
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switches trend to switch bullish again give us indication that the next higher
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timeframe pro trend run may be happening so now we can target that weak high
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right whilst the lower time frames remains bullish until we get all the way
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up here now what can sometimes happen right
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depending on what you know how how big of a gap between the higher time frame
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you're looking at and they are the lower time frame is that when your higher time
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frame starts to pull back
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the other lower timeframe that you're looking at it doesn't always have to
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switch bearish right because sometimes you could have quite a big swing move up
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on that lower time frame and then when the higher time frame
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starts to pull back here you will see a substructure lower high and lower low
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right this is a substructure break but at that time this is the swing low this
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is the higher low on the lower timeframe and that is the higher high now when the
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higher time frame pulls back to form a higher time frame higher low right
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this low here on the lower time frame is never breached so actually they both
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stay bullish this whole time but you just see that substructure break and
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then you see that minor break of structure and then the switch is bullish
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again right and we get the high right so just kind of want to drive that point
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home there wants to delete some of these drawings to clear up this all up is that
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we expect the lower time frame to change trend right in order to facilitate a
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high timeframe pullback but it's not a hard and fast rule right sometimes it's
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not always going to switch bearish in order to do that especially if the time
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frames are reasonably close so imagine how a hard time frame in this case is
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the four-hour chart and the orange line our lower time frame
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is the 15-minute chart that's not a massive gap between those two time
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frames so a lot of the times you will see that you'll get a four hour pullback
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like here and the m15 will never switch trend either okay so sometimes that will
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happen right and then we move up we form a
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higher high on the lower time on the higher time frames right
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and then this is again where potentially right we're going to obviously look at
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more confluence as we learn more concepts as we go later in the course
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but just to get you thinking let's see we see a big higher time frame level up
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here big supply zone and we are anticipating that potentially the higher
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time frames the four-hour chart may reverse and the trend may end and we may
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get a lower low so we want to be aggressive we don't have to do this we
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could wait for the four-hour to switch bearish first we could do but maybe we
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want to be a bit more aggressive and we want to anticipate that the four hour is
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going to reverse what we can do is drop down to a lower time frame so let's say
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the 15-minute chart and we can wait for the 15 minutes to switch bearish so when
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the orange orange line takes out that high low to form a lower
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low and we get that bearish trend change at a minimum that can signal that the
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four-hour pullback is starting right because we can still expect a four-hour
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higher low at this point right because we expect this to be a strong low
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because it took out the height so when we get that 15-minute change of
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character and the 15-minute switch is bearish at minimum we can expect the
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four-hour chart to pull back but we are also anticipating that
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potentially we may get that four-hour break of structure
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so the point here is that if you're anticipating a higher time frame
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reversal you can wait on the lower time frames to
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wait for the lower time frame to switch bearish first so when we take out that
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low on the lower timeframes we are now confirmed bearish from the lower
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timeframes right and we can position ourselves short with the anticipation
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that potentially this will break but of course it's not confirmed until we get
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that movement there now when prices then bearish let's say
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in the m15 and the price which is bullish again showing us that now the
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four hours likely to pull back to form that lower high right and now when is
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that pullback going to be over well the m15 is going to switch bearish again
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right now we can have confidence that the lower high may be in place right
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it's never a guarantee because the m15 could switch bearish and then it could
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switch bullish again and we could have a deeper pullback it may want to come up
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higher right and then it could switch bearish again right the m15 and now the
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lower high could be in place but we're just trying to stack probabilities in
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our favor and one of the concepts that we use right is changes of character
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looking at multi-timeframe analysis waiting for that to switch bearish and
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now that can give us an indication that potentially the four hour low high is in
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place and we are now ready to run this low so now you can really kind of see
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that that fractal relationship right with uh you know the time frames where
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what will happen on a higher time frame so this this switching bearish or this
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run you know putting back it's going to happen first on a lower timeframe so
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you're going to get that bearish trend change and then the four hour will
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potentially switch bearish okay so yeah i hope you make that makes sense
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this is quite a reasonably simple and clean diagram looking at two
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just two time frames together but let's take a look at a slightly more
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complex example
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okay so this diagram is a little bit more messy as there's a little bit more
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going on but let's just slowly go through it and see what we have here so
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this time instead of just looking at two time frames we have four time frames
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now we have them as the daily the four hour the m15 and the m1 but again this
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is not time frame specific this can apply to any set of time frames that you
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wish to view as just as long as they are in time order okay so what i mean by
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that is this could be your monthly right this could be your daily this could be
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your four hour and this could be your m15 right they just need to be from the
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higher time frame and we work our way down but in this case let's keep it
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simple right the gray line is our daily timeframe so as you can see here it's
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kind of faded at the back but we have a daily higher high
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the daily then pulls back and then we have the next daily pro
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trend run there now as the daily moves up right as we've just seen what would
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that be on the four-hour chart that would be a series of higher highs and
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higher lows on the four-hour chart right as the daily makes that run now what can
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give us an indication that the daily is about to switch bearish we get a lower
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low right the four-hour switch is bearish we then get a lower high and
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then we get a lower low now what can give us an indication that
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the daily high low is in place we can see the four hour switch bullish again
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right so it doesn't quite switch push straight away right but then it switches
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bullish there and now that can give us an indication that potentially the daily
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higher low is in place and now potentially we're going to get that
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break of daily structure and we're gonna get that daily high and the four hour
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continues bullish and then finally we get that daily break of structure and we
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continue on making higher highs and higher lows right so that's the
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relationship in this case between the four hour chart
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and the daily chart but what do we also have within those four hour runs right
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that's a run that's a four hour pullback which is a run that's a run that's a
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full pullback well then within each of those runs right a run on a higher time
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frame is what it's a trend on a lower time frame so that four hour pro trend
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run right that one move up on the four hour chart is made up of a series of
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high highs and high lows on the 15 minute chart right we have that trend
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within there now when that four hour pro trend run that high high comes to an end
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and it pulls back right that counter trend for our pullback what happens the
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m15 breaks a low it forms a lower low and it switches bearish right and we
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come back now when that four hour high low is likely to be in place what is
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going to happen the m15 will then switch bullish we're going to break the
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structure that change of character in the m15 and we'll move up so on and so
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forth and then we'll break that low pull back break the high again okay so you
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can see that the m15 trend makes up the four hour runs right and that four hour
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trend makes up the daily runs okay so on and so forth so then
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you can start to see how you're piecing those three times frames together to
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really give you an indication so like i was saying right when when we look at
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the gray line the daily line and we have price forming that higher high
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now what can be the first indication that the daily pullback is going to
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occur well the one that we looked at is to wait for the four-hour low to switch
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bearish which is like the four hours of the green dots the bullish trend right
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then it comes down and we get the red dot here because we get a four hour
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lower low so that then confirms that the the daily chart
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potentially is pulling back now and we have a lower high sorry a higher high
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here on the daily chart right but how could we potentially get even even
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earlier if we were a bit more aggressive is we could look at the m15 and we can
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go okay the m15 has broken stretches the downside which tells us that the four
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hour may be pulling back now potentially the four hour we can anticipate is going
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to switch bearish and because we think that before maybe switching bearish then
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we can anticipate that actually we're gonna get a daily pullback so that means
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that we'll see a sustained four-hour daily trend and we saw that first on the
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m15 right the m15 told us when it formed a lower low that the four hour was going
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to pull back and when the fora switched trend and broke that low to
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form a lower low that told us that the daily was pulling back right and the
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same thing here the first thing that happens is the m15 switch is bullish
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which gives us a sign that potentially we're gonna get that four hour counter
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trend pullback right because the four hour is bearish at this point but the
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m15 had to switch bullish to give us that first sign
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all right and then when the 4r came up here and broke that four hour lower high
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to form a higher high that then tells us that potentially the daily higher low is
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now finished the pullback is over and we are about to switch bullish and get that
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breaker structure right but it all happened on the m15
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first the m15 is your first potential indication that everything
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above is about to switch right so on and so forth so this kind of
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circle here where i've just kind of essentially viewed this as a magnified
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section of price action right so if we were to essentially just carve this bit
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of price action out and then zoom right into it what we can see is just part of
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that daily leg right that one daily leg is that gray line that one daily run is
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made up of what it's made up of of a four hour trend with a series of higher
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highs and higher lows those four hour runs that single run
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there that pro trend move is made up of a trend on an m15 time frame the orange
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line when the four hour wants to pull back the m15 will most likely switch
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bearish until it's finished its pullback then it will switch bullish right and
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then the four hour will continue and all of that is just part of one daily leg
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so the four hour is bullish during the daily leg the bullish daily leg dim m15
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is bullish during the four hour leg then bearish
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and then bullish again so it switches trend multiple times in just one daily
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run and then what do we also have
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within the m15 single run there like that pro trend 15 move
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the dotted line here is the m1 the one minute chart so that one 15 minute move
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is made up of a multiple series of higher highs and higher lows on the m1
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00:26:59,919 --> 00:27:02,960
when the m15 is about to pull back we get a break of structure on the m1 the
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m1 switch is bearish and it has a trend right so on and so forth right hopefully
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you really started to see how all of it is connected and it all does the exact
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00:27:12,159 --> 00:27:16,559
same thing except just the lower time frame you go the quicker it happens
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so this is why it all comes back to this very simple sentence that a run on a
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higher time frame right that that one straight move is a run that one straight
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counter trend move is also run but those runs are made up of trends on
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a lower time frame so that lower time frame trend essentially has to change
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for that pullback to occur right and then it changes again for that pullback
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to go um and then the more you zoom out the more you'll see
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so right if you were to kind of copy and paste this whole section of price
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section right you know multiple times up above
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right and we had the daily chart going on like this and then you have all of
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the moves within that right and then you have you know that's all the four-hour
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00:27:51,520 --> 00:27:54,480
chart very horribly drawn here and then within that you've got the you know the
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the m15 right making all of that all within there and
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then you'd have the m1 or within that right and you have this continuing then
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what would that be overall on the monthly chart you would see one line up
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one pullback and one line up right and that's just
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the fractal nature within the fractal nature within the fractal nature of
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everything that is going on there so let's take a look at kind of one last
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example a theoretical example in the charts just so we can kind of start to
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now piece together um a bit more how we can kind of you know base a trade idea
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um around this concept so this particular sort of line chart
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00:28:29,919 --> 00:28:32,720
diagram of price action you should be getting pretty familiar with now right
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00:28:32,720 --> 00:28:36,399
but kind of building upon this exact same example each lesson now with
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each new concept that we learn so let's slowly go through this with
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everything that we now know about the fractal expectation of order flow and
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that they run on a higher time frame right is a trend on a lower time frame
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so we always start on the higher time
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frames for our overall directional bias then we work our way down right for that
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timing and increased refinement so in this case the four-hour chart is bullish
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we have a series of higher highs higher lows and then we get that break of
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structure what do we expect after a break of
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00:29:05,679 --> 00:29:09,679
structure we expect a pullback on that time frame so because this is a
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four-hour time frame we expect a four-hour pullback right now
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once we start to see uh price pull back on the m15 time frame
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00:29:19,440 --> 00:29:23,760
so in this case the m15 is the blue line right if there was say you know a minor
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and 15 low here price would then break that low we would see that miner break a
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structure on the m15 to the downside that can then give us a signal that
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perhaps the four hour swing run is now over right because we have seen that m15
443
00:29:36,880 --> 00:29:40,240
change of character right when we get that substructure break here as well
444
00:29:40,240 --> 00:29:45,279
confirming now that the m15 is bearish right we have a bearish trend on the m15
445
00:29:45,279 --> 00:29:49,279
the blue line to show us that the four hour chart may want to pull back
446
00:29:49,279 --> 00:29:53,600
so now the m15 has changed character and the m15 is bearish the four-hour chart
447
00:29:53,600 --> 00:29:57,919
is now likely pulling back we can expect price to pull back below the equilibrium
448
00:29:57,919 --> 00:30:02,000
right below this red line which is the equilibrium of this swing move so down
449
00:30:02,000 --> 00:30:06,240
anywhere into the discount pricing that is where it's most likely or the highest
450
00:30:06,240 --> 00:30:10,559
probability doesn't have to right but most probability where price will pull
451
00:30:10,559 --> 00:30:15,200
back on the four-hour chart so looking at the m15 bearish trend
452
00:30:15,200 --> 00:30:18,799
right we can see it forming a series of lower lows and lower highs right and
453
00:30:18,799 --> 00:30:22,960
then we can mark out the premium discount of the m15 trend as well if we
454
00:30:22,960 --> 00:30:27,360
want to take these trades right so this would be pro and 15 trends because the
455
00:30:27,360 --> 00:30:31,520
m15 is bearish and we can take those kind of short term intraday trades in
456
00:30:31,520 --> 00:30:36,159
the direction of the m15 trend but we have to be aware that it is
457
00:30:36,159 --> 00:30:40,640
against the four-hour trend so although we are pro and 15 and we can be looking
458
00:30:40,640 --> 00:30:45,039
for shorts we have to be aware that this bearish trend is probably not likely to
459
00:30:45,039 --> 00:30:48,240
continue that long and as soon as we start to get down towards sort of the
460
00:30:48,240 --> 00:30:51,919
discount of the four hour bullish leg
461
00:30:51,919 --> 00:30:54,720
right it's becoming lower and lower probability to be
462
00:30:54,720 --> 00:30:58,480
looking for shorts because at any point in time that four hour higher low could
463
00:30:58,480 --> 00:31:03,440
kick in right and we could then start that next swing run to the upside
464
00:31:03,440 --> 00:31:07,360
so when price has now pulled back into the discount pricing right so as i was
465
00:31:07,360 --> 00:31:11,840
saying there's an increased probability that the four-hour higher low right may
466
00:31:11,840 --> 00:31:15,120
form now we don't know
467
00:31:15,120 --> 00:31:19,519
when or if the four-hour higher level form it's just our expectation okay the
468
00:31:19,519 --> 00:31:23,679
m15 could stay bearish the whole time right and it could break this low and
469
00:31:23,679 --> 00:31:26,240
then the the four-hour would then be bearish
470
00:31:26,240 --> 00:31:30,080
right but until that happens we run with the assumption that it's
471
00:31:30,080 --> 00:31:33,600
more likely and more probable that a higher low will fall
472
00:31:33,600 --> 00:31:37,760
now to give us you know increased confirmation that a
473
00:31:37,760 --> 00:31:41,519
high low may be forming and that we're not just going to continue and reverse
474
00:31:41,519 --> 00:31:46,480
the downside on the four-hour chart we can wait for a bullish m15 change of
475
00:31:46,480 --> 00:31:50,640
character to occur right we don't have to but right now i'm just talking kind
476
00:31:50,640 --> 00:31:55,840
of about a really high probability example okay we'll kind of get into more
477
00:31:55,840 --> 00:31:58,640
advanced ways in which we can get in much earlier but for now we're just
478
00:31:58,640 --> 00:32:02,960
looking at kind of this this this i guess high probability utopian example
479
00:32:02,960 --> 00:32:06,000
in the markets okay just so we understand the concept
480
00:32:06,000 --> 00:32:10,559
so the m15 is bearish we're now in the four hour discount of the bullish leg
481
00:32:10,559 --> 00:32:14,880
and we are waiting for the m15 to switch bullish again to confirm that the higher
482
00:32:14,880 --> 00:32:18,080
time frame intentions are true and that we're potentially going to get that four
483
00:32:18,080 --> 00:32:22,880
hour higher low to then target that next bullish swing run so now that we get
484
00:32:22,880 --> 00:32:26,080
that change of character that after a series
485
00:32:26,080 --> 00:32:30,159
of lower highs and lower lows on the on the on the m15 chart the m15 chart now
486
00:32:30,159 --> 00:32:33,600
switches bearish now we don't just want to buy straight away of course you can
487
00:32:33,600 --> 00:32:37,039
but we want a little bit you know more increased refinement for that so what do
488
00:32:37,039 --> 00:32:42,960
we expect after an m15 breaker structure we expect an m15 pullback now how far is
489
00:32:42,960 --> 00:32:45,919
that m15 pullback likely to occur well we never
490
00:32:45,919 --> 00:32:49,919
know for certain but we can use the premium and discount of this four-hour
491
00:32:49,919 --> 00:32:54,159
leg right to look to buy within the discount prices to increase our
492
00:32:54,159 --> 00:32:59,039
probability to increase increase our strike rate and increase our risk reward
493
00:32:59,039 --> 00:33:02,640
so when price is pulling back what can we do
494
00:33:02,640 --> 00:33:07,600
to give us an indication that the m15 high low may be in place and the m15 and
495
00:33:07,600 --> 00:33:12,159
the for our leg is about to you know get that next bullish leg we can drop down
496
00:33:12,159 --> 00:33:15,600
to another lower time frame and in this case the orange line is the m1 right so
497
00:33:15,600 --> 00:33:19,039
we're just dropping down again and again to give us more indication to get all of
498
00:33:19,039 --> 00:33:22,720
these uh time frames in sync to sh you know to
499
00:33:22,720 --> 00:33:25,600
give us that extra confirmation that everything is about to happen okay so in
500
00:33:25,600 --> 00:33:29,440
this case the m1 is bearish right for the m15 to pull back what's going to
501
00:33:29,440 --> 00:33:33,519
happen the m1 is going to switch bearish so we're in a bearish trend in the m1 so
502
00:33:33,519 --> 00:33:38,000
then we wait for price ideally to pull back into the discount of the m15 leg
503
00:33:38,000 --> 00:33:41,360
and then we wait for the m1 to switch bullish so when we get that change of
504
00:33:41,360 --> 00:33:44,559
character on the m1 when we get that minor break of structure that can now
505
00:33:44,559 --> 00:33:47,679
give us a good indication that potentially the m15 higher low is in
506
00:33:47,679 --> 00:33:51,919
place right confirming the four hour higher low now we can what do what after
507
00:33:51,919 --> 00:33:55,600
an m1 break of structure we expect and then one pullback and then we can wait
508
00:33:55,600 --> 00:33:58,880
for the m1 to pull back into the discount of the m1 leg right again
509
00:33:58,880 --> 00:34:02,799
giving us even more confirmation extra refinement that can now be our first m1
510
00:34:02,799 --> 00:34:06,240
higher low confirming the m15 high low confirming
511
00:34:06,240 --> 00:34:09,919
the four hour higher low confirming that the trend is going to stay intact and
512
00:34:09,919 --> 00:34:14,240
now all systems are go to now target the weak for our
513
00:34:14,240 --> 00:34:19,119
higher high right this would to to to target the weak high because it never
514
00:34:19,119 --> 00:34:22,320
took out the low so in theory this should be weak and now we had all the
515
00:34:22,320 --> 00:34:25,760
confirmation all the time frames are now in sync and this is a very very high
516
00:34:25,760 --> 00:34:30,159
probability area to then look for that swing position with m1 or even you know
517
00:34:30,159 --> 00:34:32,960
15 second potential even five second refinement
518
00:34:32,960 --> 00:34:36,960
right which we're gonna get into and you have now just used all of that to get
519
00:34:36,960 --> 00:34:41,280
insane refinement insane confirmation to capture the four hour leg and
520
00:34:41,280 --> 00:34:44,560
potentially further right we could be at the bottom of the start of a daily trend
521
00:34:44,560 --> 00:34:48,000
and you can that is essentially the secret source of how you achieve these
522
00:34:48,000 --> 00:34:52,800
high risks toward um yeah high strike rate trades where you wait for all time
523
00:34:52,800 --> 00:34:56,320
frames to be in sync and then you target those higher time
524
00:34:56,320 --> 00:35:01,280
frame um yeah expectations of where you see price will go so
525
00:35:01,280 --> 00:35:04,400
hopefully it's all starting to make sense hopefully it's yeah just starting
526
00:35:04,400 --> 00:35:07,520
to click now i'll just go through a few more things and then we'll hop on the
527
00:35:07,520 --> 00:35:10,480
charts after this to show you um you know how this actually looks in reality
528
00:35:10,480 --> 00:35:13,599
and price action uh yeah really just start to get a lot of practice so we can
529
00:35:13,599 --> 00:35:18,079
get very very familiar yeah and comfortable with it
530
00:35:18,079 --> 00:35:22,480
so as we have clearly seen price is fractal
531
00:35:22,480 --> 00:35:26,000
what happens on the higher time frames must first happen on the lower time
532
00:35:26,000 --> 00:35:28,640
frames now when we are mapping our structure on
533
00:35:28,640 --> 00:35:33,359
the charts i would highly recommend that you use a set number of time frames to
534
00:35:33,359 --> 00:35:37,040
do so now the reason why is because
535
00:35:37,040 --> 00:35:40,640
if you start flicking through an endless amount of different time frames you can
536
00:35:40,640 --> 00:35:45,040
end up just fitting the price action to the narrative that maybe you want to see
537
00:35:45,040 --> 00:35:48,000
and you'll most likely just end up getting thrown about by the markets in
538
00:35:48,000 --> 00:35:51,359
the long run so if you want the best possible chance
539
00:35:51,359 --> 00:35:56,720
of achieving consistent results and what is ultimately a random game then you
540
00:35:56,720 --> 00:36:01,040
need to be consistent in the variables that you have personal control over
541
00:36:01,040 --> 00:36:03,520
right so i'll give you a kind of general
542
00:36:03,520 --> 00:36:08,320
example that is kind of based more on my own current personal training style
543
00:36:08,320 --> 00:36:13,200
so i use the daily time frame to give me my overall high time frame perspective
544
00:36:13,200 --> 00:36:17,440
now i will also look at the monthly and the weekly time frames but i will only
545
00:36:17,440 --> 00:36:21,599
be looking at those you know once a week really because the price action on those
546
00:36:21,599 --> 00:36:25,119
time frames and you know the market structure on those time frames they're
547
00:36:25,119 --> 00:36:28,400
not really going to be changing that often right the monthly and weekly gonna
548
00:36:28,400 --> 00:36:32,160
take weeks and months to to sort of play out and shift
549
00:36:32,160 --> 00:36:36,079
so i'll then use the four hour time frame to give me my overall narrative so
550
00:36:36,079 --> 00:36:39,599
this is where i really start to build the story of price action and then i'll
551
00:36:39,599 --> 00:36:43,440
drop down to the m15 the 15 minute time frame to give me more
552
00:36:43,440 --> 00:36:47,599
of an immediate bias so essentially that's the direction that i want to be
553
00:36:47,599 --> 00:36:51,680
training in that's what i use the m15 for and i'll drop down to the one minute
554
00:36:51,680 --> 00:36:55,520
time frame and sometimes lower so sometimes i use the seconds time frames
555
00:36:55,520 --> 00:37:01,040
to just give me that extra timing that i need to execute my entries
556
00:37:01,040 --> 00:37:05,280
so essentially the way that i use the daily time frame is to show me when is
557
00:37:05,280 --> 00:37:08,800
the four hour trend likely to turn around
558
00:37:08,800 --> 00:37:14,320
so if the daily is on a bullish run right and it breaks a daily high to form
559
00:37:14,320 --> 00:37:17,599
a higher high what do we then expect
560
00:37:17,599 --> 00:37:22,560
we expect the daily to pull back right so the daily time frame is then telling
561
00:37:22,560 --> 00:37:27,920
me that the four-hour chart is likely and potentially to switch bearish soon
562
00:37:27,920 --> 00:37:32,880
uh bearish soon so that the daily chart can then start its pullback right
563
00:37:32,880 --> 00:37:36,640
but then because i'm only expecting just a daily pullback
564
00:37:36,640 --> 00:37:40,960
i can then know that the four hour bearish trend is probably not likely to
565
00:37:40,960 --> 00:37:45,040
last very long right because it's just a daily pullback
566
00:37:45,040 --> 00:37:48,480
so then when i analyze the daily and i think that it has now pulled back to an
567
00:37:48,480 --> 00:37:53,119
area of fair value where the daily higher low is likely to form
568
00:37:53,119 --> 00:37:56,960
i then use that information to tell me that the four hour bearish trend is now
569
00:37:56,960 --> 00:38:00,880
more likely to end and then the four hour is likely to switch bullish again
570
00:38:00,880 --> 00:38:04,880
to continue the daily bullish pro trend run
571
00:38:04,880 --> 00:38:07,599
so that's how i use the daily chart for market structure
572
00:38:07,599 --> 00:38:13,359
it's mainly just to help me see when the four hour trend is likely to turn around
573
00:38:13,359 --> 00:38:17,040
so then when i'm looking at the four hour chart i'm essentially asking myself
574
00:38:17,040 --> 00:38:21,119
you know whether the four hour is in a continuation phase or if it is in a
575
00:38:21,119 --> 00:38:24,480
counter trend pull back phase and then that will then determine how
576
00:38:24,480 --> 00:38:28,640
aggressive or conservative i will be with my entries and with my management
577
00:38:28,640 --> 00:38:32,480
depending on whether i will be trading against the four hour trend or if i'm
578
00:38:32,480 --> 00:38:35,520
trading with it i will then use the m15 to give me
579
00:38:35,520 --> 00:38:39,760
confirmation of when the four hour continuation phase may be ending and the
580
00:38:39,760 --> 00:38:44,640
counter trend pullback may be starting and vice versa so i also use that to
581
00:38:44,640 --> 00:38:47,920
show me when the counter train pullback is finished right when the four four
582
00:38:47,920 --> 00:38:52,320
hour pullback is finished the m15 then switches trend again to show me that the
583
00:38:52,320 --> 00:38:56,800
four hour continuation run may be about to commence
584
00:38:56,800 --> 00:38:59,359
and then finally the one minute time frame
585
00:38:59,359 --> 00:39:04,079
and sometimes lower is then used for that last extra bit of timing to confirm
586
00:39:04,079 --> 00:39:08,079
those turning points in the m15 right and this is where i will then look for
587
00:39:08,079 --> 00:39:15,839
my entry models to enter my positions okay so the four hour and the m15 for me
588
00:39:15,839 --> 00:39:18,880
personally just those two time frames alone are
589
00:39:18,880 --> 00:39:23,760
probably where i spend over 95 of the time looking at and analyzing when i'm
590
00:39:23,760 --> 00:39:26,640
on the charts and just yeah just looking at the market
591
00:39:26,640 --> 00:39:30,400
i will only drop down to the m1 time frame when i've seen everything i need
592
00:39:30,400 --> 00:39:34,800
to see and price is already in my higher time frame points of interest when it's
593
00:39:34,800 --> 00:39:39,440
in an area of higher timeframe value and that is only then when i will use the m1
594
00:39:39,440 --> 00:39:43,839
or lower for my execution because if you're just sitting on the m1 chart all
595
00:39:43,839 --> 00:39:47,760
day you're going to see tens or not hundreds of entries a day and you're
596
00:39:47,760 --> 00:39:50,480
literally going to get slapped about by the market and you're going to wonder
597
00:39:50,480 --> 00:39:54,240
why trades aren't working out or why they're turning around straight away and
598
00:39:54,240 --> 00:39:57,440
it's because the m1 is going to be constantly changing trend every few
599
00:39:57,440 --> 00:39:59,920
minutes so that's why we build the higher time
600
00:39:59,920 --> 00:40:03,760
frame narrative because it's the higher time frame moves right those higher time
601
00:40:03,760 --> 00:40:07,680
frame runs and those higher timeframe pullbacks it's those higher time frame
602
00:40:07,680 --> 00:40:11,839
phases that i am personally interested in trading because that's where the high
603
00:40:11,839 --> 00:40:15,599
reward to risk is so i'm just solely using the m1 for
604
00:40:15,599 --> 00:40:19,760
increased refinement to get a tight entry and to get a tight stop-loss
605
00:40:19,760 --> 00:40:23,680
but also to give me that extra extra piece of confirmation to make sure as
606
00:40:23,680 --> 00:40:29,200
many time frames as possible are in sync and confirming what i think i'm seeing
607
00:40:29,200 --> 00:40:34,319
so again for me personally the four hour and the m15 are my most
608
00:40:34,319 --> 00:40:37,359
important time frames when it comes to market structure
609
00:40:37,359 --> 00:40:41,200
so in very very simple terms the four hour gives me my overall higher time
610
00:40:41,200 --> 00:40:45,839
frame bias and then the m15 shows me sort of the intraday direction that i
611
00:40:45,839 --> 00:40:49,680
want to be trading in now we'll get into all of this in even
612
00:40:49,680 --> 00:40:53,680
more detail as we go through the rest of the lessons and specifically in the
613
00:40:53,680 --> 00:40:57,599
trade plan module where we will discuss the different time frames and you know
614
00:40:57,599 --> 00:41:01,280
the criteria that you may personally want to use for each of those time
615
00:41:01,280 --> 00:41:06,480
frames depending on your own style your own trading personality and whatever you
616
00:41:06,480 --> 00:41:10,000
know lifestyle constraints that you may have because of course you know some of
617
00:41:10,000 --> 00:41:13,760
us may have full-time jobs some of you may be part-time some of you may be
618
00:41:13,760 --> 00:41:17,520
trading full-time and that really will depend okay but again we'll get into
619
00:41:17,520 --> 00:41:23,280
this in a lot more depth later on but here's another very simple overview
620
00:41:23,280 --> 00:41:27,200
of how you could utilize a set number of time frames for market structure if
621
00:41:27,200 --> 00:41:30,560
perhaps you wanted a slightly more longer term perspective you know like i
622
00:41:30,560 --> 00:41:33,760
was saying potentially if you have a full-time job you know where you can't
623
00:41:33,760 --> 00:41:36,880
actively monitor the charts on those very low time frames
624
00:41:36,880 --> 00:41:39,760
so essentially you can use the monthly time frame for your hard time frame
625
00:41:39,760 --> 00:41:43,680
perspective the daily for your narrative so you know seeing if you're trading a
626
00:41:43,680 --> 00:41:47,680
daily pullback or if you're trading the daily pro trend run
627
00:41:47,680 --> 00:41:51,280
and then you will use the four hour to give you your immediate bias of the
628
00:41:51,280 --> 00:41:55,200
direction that you actually want to trade in before finally dropping down to
629
00:41:55,200 --> 00:42:00,240
the m15 to use that for your execution to time your entries with more
630
00:42:00,240 --> 00:42:04,640
confirmation and refinement so make sure you use multiple time
631
00:42:04,640 --> 00:42:08,640
frames to you know really know the higher time frame narrative and then
632
00:42:08,640 --> 00:42:13,119
actively monitor the lower time frame price action and allow the trade setup
633
00:42:13,119 --> 00:42:17,119
to present itself now in the next lesson we're about to
634
00:42:17,119 --> 00:42:21,040
hop on the charts and actually apply all of this theory to you know real world
635
00:42:21,040 --> 00:42:25,119
market examples but before we do that in a minute i just want to end this theory
636
00:42:25,119 --> 00:42:30,240
lesson on one last example to make this really important point hopefully
637
00:42:30,240 --> 00:42:35,040
starting to really sink in if it hasn't already
638
00:42:35,359 --> 00:42:39,359
so when we are in a four hour bearish trend
639
00:42:39,359 --> 00:42:44,160
the expectation so the expectation order flow is for the four hour to keep
640
00:42:44,160 --> 00:42:49,200
forming lower lows and lower highs and that is what we are anticipating
641
00:42:49,200 --> 00:42:54,160
until we are proven otherwise but as we now know in order for the four
642
00:42:54,160 --> 00:43:00,079
hour to create a new lower high we need to see a bullish trend form on
643
00:43:00,079 --> 00:43:04,880
the lower time frames so that the four hour can actually pull back right
644
00:43:04,880 --> 00:43:09,280
so we will first see that shift in order flow on the lower time frames to switch
645
00:43:09,280 --> 00:43:14,160
bullish which then signals to us that the four hour may be now pulling back
646
00:43:14,160 --> 00:43:20,560
to form that potential swing lower high now when price eventually pulls back and
647
00:43:20,560 --> 00:43:23,920
it returns to our previous four hour lower high
648
00:43:23,920 --> 00:43:26,960
because the overall four hour trend is bearish
649
00:43:26,960 --> 00:43:32,160
and there should be a strong lower high our expectation is for price to sell off
650
00:43:32,160 --> 00:43:36,319
from this area right however it does not have to
651
00:43:36,319 --> 00:43:41,440
remember anything can happen in the markets anything so as price develops
652
00:43:41,440 --> 00:43:45,680
around this area our mission is to observe its development and listen to
653
00:43:45,680 --> 00:43:49,280
what the market is telling us in a neutral state of mind
654
00:43:49,280 --> 00:43:52,800
so the lower time frame structural development within those higher time
655
00:43:52,800 --> 00:43:56,800
frame points of interest that can really help guide us to be in
656
00:43:56,800 --> 00:44:01,280
the flow of the market and execute accordingly and be in harmony with the
657
00:44:01,280 --> 00:44:05,359
market now i know sometimes it can be pretty
658
00:44:05,359 --> 00:44:08,319
confusing because on the one hand i'm saying that
659
00:44:08,319 --> 00:44:11,520
we are supposed to be completely neutral in the market
660
00:44:11,520 --> 00:44:14,400
but then on the other hand at the same time
661
00:44:14,400 --> 00:44:18,240
we do have a trend bias and we have the expectation of order
662
00:44:18,240 --> 00:44:20,400
flow so surely these two things are
663
00:44:20,400 --> 00:44:26,000
contradictory right how can you be neutral but also have a directional bias
664
00:44:26,000 --> 00:44:30,079
and have an expectation of the direction of order flow
665
00:44:30,079 --> 00:44:34,800
well this is essentially how you do it you understand what is the more probable
666
00:44:34,800 --> 00:44:39,680
situation but you are not attached to that outcome having to happen
667
00:44:39,680 --> 00:44:43,520
you don't care either way you just let the market show you the way
668
00:44:43,520 --> 00:44:48,480
and you adapt to what it shows you so all of the technical analysis tools
669
00:44:48,480 --> 00:44:52,640
and the concepts that we use they're just a mechanical framework to
670
00:44:52,640 --> 00:44:55,920
help guide us through the order flow of the market
671
00:44:55,920 --> 00:44:59,280
so as bruce lee says be like water my friends
672
00:44:59,280 --> 00:45:02,160
flow with whatever way the market wants to go
673
00:45:02,160 --> 00:45:06,240
let the lower time frames give you the confirmation to show you the higher time
674
00:45:06,240 --> 00:45:11,280
frames true intentions don't fight the market from within
675
00:45:11,280 --> 00:45:14,000
with your own bias and your own attachments
676
00:45:14,000 --> 00:45:21,079
master it from above that is how you evolve toward the light71188
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