All language subtitles for July 06, 2017 New York Session EN

Okay, good morning folks.

Welcome back.

Bye.

So we're looking at the
economic calendar this morning.

Uh, we have some pretty eventful things
going on and about, uh, 12 minutes

or so today, 30 news embargo we'll
be lifting and then we'll have CAD

trade balance and building permits.

Then we have dollar unemployment
claims and trade balance.

I later on this morning, 10 o'clock.

We have ism and FMC speaker,
pal, and 11 o'clock.

We have Crudo inventories.

So it's a landmine field out there.

It's lots of stuff.

And then we have non-farm
payroll tomorrow.

So very, very tricky week, which is the
reason why I outlined the levels I want.

If I don't get those
levels, I don't trade.

So.

As well see here, hang on one second.

Let's go over to our charts.

There you go.

All right.

So we'll be looking at
Katonah in a couple minutes.

Let's go real quickly to the dollar.

All right.

So the dollar index has had.

Yesterday's New York session only shows
the Forex calendar for the recording.

Is anyone else having problems looking
at yesterday's New York session.

Yeah, it's just you, Thomas.

I'm not sure what's up with
that might be your video player.

All right.

So let me get this out of my way.

So I was looking for a
little bit higher price.

I wanted to close on this candle.

Uh, the actually respected the wicks
in here so far and we've rejected.

Toward reaching for a little
bit of a no man's land in here.

I mean, yes, we have a reactionary point,
but this low, but given the news this

morning, non-farm payroll coming up.

I don't trust it.

I'd rather have this level here and be
confident about what I'm looking for.

So while yes, we're seeing some turn in
here it's still early in the day, a Euro.

I've been drawing your attention
to this liquidity Boyd in here.

I still think that's going
to be a draw on price.

So that leads one to believe either
cable is going to slip hard or

you're always going to rally hard.

So we have to look for either one
of those scenarios and price action.

So Euro bouncing off the
fifth 50% level of our range.

And here we outlined a nice little
reaction so far come up, close the book.

Essentially in here, we'll
get this out of the way.

Good.

Previous thing is always in my way.

It's a little menu box that allows me
to control GoToWebinar's features and

it just it's always in the wrong spot.

All right.

So we see it's still
low on this candle here.

Uh, one 14 big figure and
we just nailed it in here.

So we could be seeing some reaction.

If it stays in this area, we could see
some movement lower off of the news,

not calling a high and just
looking for reactions this morning.

Real quick.

We'll look at the pounds.

Lb.

I want to say something about this
that I didn't mention yesterday,

but we have this high back here with
some sell stocks below the lows.

This run down.

Yes.

It closed the void we looked for, but
we've taken out stops here and here.

So yeah, we have a breaker
we outlined here, but this is

also a breaker and minutely.

Ingrained about talking
about the two scenarios here.

I completely ignored
what's going on over here.

So while I still mentioned what it
was, that was going to be problematic

for the, uh, cable, the rally.

I said, he'd have to get back above 29 70.

The reason why I was saying 29 70, I
didn't say the background behind it.

It was the fact that we have this breaker
here and we're inside of that range.

So it has to get back about 29, 7.

Convincingly, you can't just do this,
like intraday it's spiked through it.

And now we're back in the middle of the
range between the breaker low and high.

So we're in the middle of it.

So that's why this demanding
price gets to 28 62.

We could look for a potential
buy there, but really the sweet

spot, in my opinion, is of aching.

Find a discount to this level down
here that isn't, it's like that strong.

That's like really,
really strong for a buy.

It may not get down there.

So we have to really worry
about the 28 65, 28 60 level.

But the reason why I was saying
that it was going to struggle or not

struggling, it needs to get through 29
70, or it will struggle to go up just

because of the breaker that's here.

Okay.

It was the last up candle.

They sold into the dry for
the self festival over here.

And then ultimately this lower low
here has its own individual breaker,

but we've already mapped out this.

I'm not gonna talk about it.

This w I 1 29 70, I got a question
and an email, you know, what's

the significance with that level?

It's the, it's a breaker and it was,
I was my failure not to go into great

detail about it because either I got
distracted or whatever, but the long

short is that's why 29 70 is a factor.

It has to, it has to get through
that to escape the effects of this

institutional overflow reference
point as a bearish breaker.

I'm sorry.

A Bush wrecker has to ask to go away.

Because we've taken the cell stops
out from this high moved lower.

So anything goes above.

Then yes, they are mitigating all the
orders that they have used to sell short.

Now it spends a great deal
of time down below here.

So naturally we wouldn't expect it to
be done in one day, which is a reason

why I'm sitting on my hands waiting.

I'm okay with it.

If it trades about 29, 78, I'd rather
see it, do it convincingly because I

still have rain to get for 30, 65, 30,
80, maybe even 31 big figure or plus.

So let's go over to.

Our dollar cat.

We're going to watch
this one this morning.

I got a question from Tina.

Do I do I only trade bond trades
outside the opening range, eight

to 9:00 AM and never inside.

I've been known to trade bonds
right at the opening price.

And then other instances where I
actually use the opening, right.

I'm not, I'm not limited to that.

There's going to be times where you
just buy the opener, sell the opening,

and don't even worry about it, but
you'll get all that stuff and your PDs.

So let's take a quick
look at what we have.

For dollar cat.

It looks as if we may get

some continuation

on the lower end.

We have cell stops below
here, male on that.

And again, I am not advocating taking any
trades this week because of where we're

at on a calendar where we're at with.

The fact that we have so many news
events and going into non-farm payroll.

So we have a shortened week
because of the U S holiday.

It's just better to sit
on your hands down there.

Somebody going like, Aw,
man, I want to hear that.

Well, man, it is what it is.

Then we have two points
of reference in here.

We have this down close candle.

I had the most dynamic price
action to move away from it.

So this could be a breaker, which
we're seeing already initial impact

from the rally, right up to the high.

See the high on this candle.

29 45 and where we're at
so far for this is 29 43.

So we're inside the range of this breaker.

We'll short block that took
price higher to run stops.

And we have this larger one in here.

So we do have sell-side
liquidity resting just below.

That's a Webby looking to the listener.

Okay.

So we have a fair value gap
that we could see a spike up in.

And disregard that breaker here we
are getting ready to have the news

and that low comes in at 29 56.

So we'll look at 29 55.

See if we get a reaction
there to go lower.

Okay.

So

we're looking for a potential move up.

If we run into that.

Um, bullish or blocked, they
could act as a breaker as well.

I made nice price movement
away from that level.

So it's kind of layered.

So 29, 55, 20 50, if it spikes up to
that level here, that could be an area

where we could see selling and then
make a run for the sell stops here.

Or we could drop down, run the
cell stops and go all the up for

the buy stocks that are arresting
just about all these highs in here.

Remember we have a big old,
uh, uh, Liquidity in here.

Huge open void.

Again, they don't have to come all the
way up to close that in on a daily.

They tend to come up here just
half of it and it'd be enough.

So the scenarios would
be, we treat up to 29 55.

I think that would be a cell
for the cell stops 4 29.

Semi what?

45 pips or 40 pips or so what's spread.

And then we are in the order
block, bolt or block here.

Yeah.

I'd rather see that I'd rather see
a trade up here and go down to the

cell stops and then it could make
a run higher than one to notice how

everything else is balanced out.

Really not.

I have a small, we're a little fairway
gap in here, but it's got a brick

wall in my opinion, with this one.

So if it trades up there and
goes lower, I don't think

they'll come back for this one.

After it repels 29, 55, it
goes below the low here.

So it's been, uh, it's been a sell
off since midnight last night.

So they're gonna want to reach up
into, get some kind of a premium.

And it's the logical that went this
old, low here could see at 29 55

quick look over here at urinal so far,
given up a little bit of the ground,

a dollar.

It's going to have to S it's going
to struggle while it's inside this

candle's range here on the daily.

It needs to escape it.

If it goes below it great.

That gives us the focus on 29.

I'm sorry, 28 65, 28,
60 as a potential buy.

If we lose the ground there, we really
are hoping to get it down through this.

'cause I won't be buying that.

I'm going to put you guys
on mute just for a second.

My youngest ones come
in and ask me something.

So I don't know what he's
going to answer that.

Make sure it's the muted.

I'll still be here looking at.

I was innocent or not.

They have a place.

Downtown, that's called a
sweet frog, the frozen yogurt.

Who's asking if he can
go there this afternoon.

So I guess that's where I'll be
going, not to eat that stuff.

Um, like real ice cream.

So the question I got was
how do you frame a premium.

We have swing high in here.

Okay.

We have an equilibrium right there.

And anything above equilibrium is what.

Premium.

It doesn't have to mind,
not with Fibonacci.

It's better than it does because
there's one more conference, but

anything above equilibrium is a premium.

Anything below it is a discount.

The key is, is anything below
equilibrium is a discount that

you have to find a discount array.

When institutional overflow
is suggesting higher prices.

When prices above equilibrium,
it's at a premium.

Just because it's a premium doesn't
mean it's at a point at which you

trade, you have to find a premium
array to couple it with when

institutional order flow is bearish.

It's just a simple little process, but
you have to frame it in terms of, are

we in premium or discount by itself?

It means nothing.

You have to have the discount or
premium array in alignment as well.

So you're blending two things, an
actual reference points traditionally,

which some say don't exist.

Then you have the also, uh, basic
terms of overbought oversold.

That's what it does.

If you look inside of a predetermined
range of price, you don't need indicators

that determine if you're overbought
a result because of equilibrium.

If it's expanded higher above the
equilibrium or halfway point, it's

overbought, how you can remain
overbought and keep going overbought

for a while, until it gets to some
reference point where institutions

and large orders will be slamming
the market to do something at that.

Well, it's overbought, not because
of the indicator, but because of

valuation and where institutions
have already stepped in before.

So does that help you with, uh, forgot?

Who was asking?

It went by pretty quick.

Sebastian, does that answer your question?

You're welcome.

Um, the August PDF files, will they be
printer friendly for, I guess, friendlier

than the monthly PDs, I'm going to
have like graffiti, neon black and all

kinds of like abstract art behind it.

And you'll have to use those like little
red filters delayed over top of it.

That way you can see what it says.

Oh, man, I'm going to be thinking about
that one, the rest of the session.

I'm going to be goofing off now.

Uh, I don't, honestly, I don't know
how I'm going to, uh, present it.

Cause obviously my, my notes are in
just white background, simple word

document format, but I don't want to
do that because it's so easy for folks.

Simply just put that out there
and make books out of it.

And that was the whole point of why the
slides are so heavily done with black.

And the whole thing is for black,
because if you're going to print

them out, you know, obviously it's
going to be very costly for you to

do it if you're trying to sell it.

Not that, that would be a
determined because I'm sure you

could probably put a price tag on.

Someone would still pay for it.

There was meant that as a
deterrent, so far the dollar cat

hasn't really moved that much.

And cable stolen a slop.

Come on mute.

Watching price with you.

So far, we're still stuck
in a little tiny range.

You would expect with such large
impactful news expected during the

eight 30 release, a lot more volatility.

And we're not seeing that,

not a good technical week at all.

Put Michael to your one up.

Why is it not good to, they
didn't give me a level.

I want to trade off of.

Um, yeah, I got a lot of,
people's asked several times

throughout this whole mentorship.

If I get paid for the whole thing upfront
and I don't do that market, it has to

be delivered on a month by month basis.

That way you can tell me you
did get what you paid for.

And you want to continue.

If I just do it as a long purchase,
it creates a billing nightmare.

And it's, it's, it's hard
for me to combat abuse

now, as a reason why I didn't
do that, it would've been so

much easier for me to do it.

Great.

Yeah, we'd done.

But a lot of folks
couldn't afford it either.

So yeah, I believe you're
right Mike, um, 10 o'clock.

And a Crudo inventory later on,
maybe the impact on a dollar cat.

I like to run on the sell stops.

Just have this in your notes today.

I think we'll run 1 29 tens
and maybe 1 29 big figure.

Um,

Yeah, yours, not moving much at all yet.

Let me just frame out dollar
CAD and we'll be done with it.

Um, we have cell stops below 29, 10 29.

Big figure could spike down
to, um, let's see here holds.

Oh, I hear you.

Bailey.

Uh, yeah.

All right.

We have ADR on, and that
puts us at 1 29, 10 as well.

So we'll see a draw down to
a 29 Tammy 29 big figure.

Use this, grab it down here.

I'm not holding her off.

She is such a baby, but she
wants to be held all the time.

She wants to be cuddling all the
time, which is great, but nobody's

seen this enough times, but, uh,
I'm going hear 29 big figure so

we could see 29 big figure 29, 10.

So do we get up into say 29 50, which
is basically the halfway point in here.

Submit point of that 29 50 could be
a cell to get to 29, 10, 20, my big.

Okay.

So there's this scenario, like it
could go up to 29, 55 also on wild

news around griddle inventories.

It could come all the way up here
and fill in this gap as well.

This tiny little thing here, it starts
or ends with the resistance at 29 63.

So 29 63.

It could be the highest end.

Um, your stock would have to be
above the rejection block here on

a close, which will be 29, 80, so
30 pips to make, um, what is that?

40.

So it's not, it's a little bit better,
one than one that I think that is

the same, that may unfold today.

So we'll see.

It doesn't have to go up there.

It could just this roll right on lower.

I'm only thinking that's likely
to happen because we've started

right from the midnight candle.

Right.

So we're also in a bullet or a block,
so they may want to push it up there

and get into a premium again, 29
mid figure, uh, like that, uh, 29

55 is even better, but it could just
go right up here in the middle of

the, um, the gap, not even close it.

So you could do 1 29, 50 as a
sell and take profits at, uh, 29,

uh, 29.

12 we'll be good.

29.

10 is good.

Uh, 29 0 5, I think is the richest.

You should go because with 29 big figure
that would give us about the five hips

spread and they may not want to allow
the spread to give you a solid exit.

If you get too, uh, too
demanding on your limits.

So that's going to be it for the smart,
I'm going to let this one unfold.

I think we'll see the drive down here.

Again, the conditions are not right.

Uh, we have a really sloppy market
condition, so, but I do want to give you

something that you can work with today.

So now I'm going to get
an email for some of you.

You've only shown us one
sort of in last 19 days.

So that's what we're
looking for for today.

Okay.

I will give you folks a recap,
normal time, all that business.

And I seen your question
regarding the cot.

Rob saw included at the day in the recap.

Awesome.

All right, good.

Take care.

Be careful.

Don't do anything stupid, but if it
gets up here and do a demo and then do

a demo, but it's up at a stop-loss here
and get some kind of a, a limit off of.

And we'll see what you get now.

I'll come back with you guys later on
this afternoon and see what transpires.