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These are the user uploaded subtitles that are being translated: 1 00:00:03,660 --> 00:00:06,060 Welcome back folks again, we're dealing with commodity. 2 00:00:06,060 --> 00:00:07,520 So it's very important. 3 00:00:07,540 --> 00:00:10,380 You read the disclaimers here and understand and remember that I'm not a 4 00:00:10,380 --> 00:00:11,970 CTA and not a commodity trade advisor. 5 00:00:12,660 --> 00:00:18,060 Everything we discuss here is only referring to a paper trade capacity only. 6 00:00:29,780 --> 00:00:31,400 Okay, welcome back. 7 00:00:31,790 --> 00:00:37,190 ICT mentorship, June, 2017, commodity trading lesson number two, we're going 8 00:00:37,190 --> 00:00:40,879 to talking about relative strength analysis and we can see professional 9 00:00:40,879 --> 00:00:42,170 accumulation and distribution. 10 00:00:47,324 --> 00:00:47,714 Okay. 11 00:00:47,745 --> 00:00:53,925 When we deal with commodities, there's two main camps or groups of markets 12 00:00:53,955 --> 00:00:55,455 that make up the commodity market. 13 00:00:55,724 --> 00:00:58,485 And it's the agricultural and the financial market. 14 00:00:59,714 --> 00:01:02,565 The first in the agriculturals are the grains. 15 00:01:02,925 --> 00:01:06,134 And I'm going to, I'm going to tell you the ones that I like to follow, 16 00:01:06,825 --> 00:01:11,625 and there's other grains, obviously like oats and such, but I'm not 17 00:01:11,625 --> 00:01:12,884 going to concern myself with that. 18 00:01:13,365 --> 00:01:14,235 Um, for the grain mark. 19 00:01:15,135 --> 00:01:20,235 We have corn wheat and soybeans, and they trade on the struggle board trade 20 00:01:21,435 --> 00:01:23,775 and an exchange for the green markets. 21 00:01:24,315 --> 00:01:29,775 And there's other grains that can be traded like canola and 22 00:01:31,425 --> 00:01:32,565 boats and something like that. 23 00:01:32,565 --> 00:01:37,545 But, uh, they're very thin markets, but these are the three that I historically, 24 00:01:37,545 --> 00:01:40,965 as a commodity trader back in the early nineties, there's are the three 25 00:01:40,965 --> 00:01:42,375 I ex like started the follow-up. 26 00:01:45,255 --> 00:01:48,495 Out of the live stock sector of the agricultural markets. 27 00:01:48,645 --> 00:01:57,465 We have feeder cattle, lean hogs, and live cattle out of the foods area. 28 00:01:57,495 --> 00:02:02,355 We have cocoa orange juice, which is kind of thin, but I include 29 00:02:02,355 --> 00:02:08,505 it when it's really, um, a freeze like in Florida, if there's a. 30 00:02:09,914 --> 00:02:12,644 An issue with the crop down in Florida. 31 00:02:12,644 --> 00:02:16,875 There's a really, it's a really fun market to be trading in, but otherwise 32 00:02:16,935 --> 00:02:19,424 aren't used as kind of thin, but include it because it is one of my 33 00:02:19,424 --> 00:02:23,774 favorite students to watch for that very reason, uh, coffee and then sugar. 34 00:02:25,334 --> 00:02:27,644 And in the fibers, we have cotton. 35 00:02:28,245 --> 00:02:31,214 Now there is lumber market, but it's kind of thin as well. 36 00:02:33,225 --> 00:02:36,495 And other financial instruments, we have the debt instruments, 37 00:02:36,495 --> 00:02:38,084 which is the 30 year treasury. 38 00:02:39,105 --> 00:02:42,135 10-year treasury note and five-year treasury note, 39 00:02:45,495 --> 00:02:47,685 the currencies, the calm Dalles here. 40 00:02:47,685 --> 00:02:52,305 We see Aussie dollar Canadian dollar Japanese yen, British 41 00:02:52,305 --> 00:02:59,055 pound Swiss, Franc Euro dollar and New Zealand dollar the metals. 42 00:02:59,055 --> 00:03:01,965 We have gold, silver, and high-grade copper. 43 00:03:02,505 --> 00:03:06,135 Now there are two other metals, palladium and platinum that I did 44 00:03:06,165 --> 00:03:07,755 follow early on in the nineties. 45 00:03:09,090 --> 00:03:12,810 But I just fell out of, uh, interest in, in, in these are the 46 00:03:12,810 --> 00:03:14,430 three metals I like to follow. 47 00:03:15,720 --> 00:03:17,760 And the energies, obviously we have crude oil. 48 00:03:19,575 --> 00:03:23,565 So when we look at the commodity market as a whole, this would be your basket of 49 00:03:23,775 --> 00:03:26,715 commodities to follow now much like Forex. 50 00:03:26,715 --> 00:03:31,905 There's a nice sample size to choose from which one you want to be trading and which 51 00:03:31,905 --> 00:03:33,405 one you may want to be a specialist in. 52 00:03:34,005 --> 00:03:39,405 Um, I liked the treasury bond in the currency markets and dabbled in gold 53 00:03:39,405 --> 00:03:44,115 and silver and copper when there was a real strong tendency to, for it to move. 54 00:03:44,475 --> 00:03:46,425 And the agriculturals I liked soybeans. 55 00:03:47,459 --> 00:03:50,429 And feed your cattle and live cattle and on a seasonal 56 00:03:50,429 --> 00:03:51,660 tendency, I like to lean hogs. 57 00:03:52,410 --> 00:03:55,980 I traded cocoa, orange juice, coffee, sugar, and cotton. 58 00:04:01,489 --> 00:04:05,209 So when we look at the commodity market and we look for relative 59 00:04:05,209 --> 00:04:08,870 strength analysis, relative strength analysis is basically factoring. 60 00:04:09,600 --> 00:04:14,970 Your analysis around the most important market to be following right now when 61 00:04:14,970 --> 00:04:18,300 you're bullish and the most important market to be found when you're bearish. 62 00:04:18,870 --> 00:04:21,900 And there's really two simple ways to, um, come to the conclusion 63 00:04:21,900 --> 00:04:27,570 of what that is, as you know, the dollar index is like the king. 64 00:04:27,810 --> 00:04:28,080 Okay. 65 00:04:28,080 --> 00:04:29,280 So the greenback is the king. 66 00:04:29,310 --> 00:04:32,310 So what the dollar does sets the tone for everything. 67 00:04:33,090 --> 00:04:34,530 Especially when it comes to commodities. 68 00:04:34,860 --> 00:04:39,360 So if we look for the dollar index to be trading higher, that's going to 69 00:04:39,360 --> 00:04:41,340 put pressure on the commodity prices. 70 00:04:41,940 --> 00:04:45,360 If the dollar index is going to be trading lower, that's going to allow 71 00:04:45,390 --> 00:04:47,880 and insight higher commodity prices. 72 00:04:48,690 --> 00:04:53,940 So when we look at this, I want you to think in terms of that scenario. 73 00:04:56,000 --> 00:04:59,090 So when we look at institutionally sponsored rallies, what we're 74 00:04:59,090 --> 00:05:01,580 actually looking at is a market that has failed to go live. 75 00:05:02,594 --> 00:05:07,575 At a time when the dollar index would be expected to go lower. 76 00:05:08,414 --> 00:05:11,984 So in other words, if the dollar is making some important high, or maybe 77 00:05:11,984 --> 00:05:18,044 even a topping formation that may be a precursor to a bullish commodity 78 00:05:18,044 --> 00:05:22,515 market and the commodities that you'd be looking to be long in our commodity 79 00:05:22,515 --> 00:05:25,575 that fails to make a lower low, which is basically an SMT diversions. 80 00:05:26,114 --> 00:05:28,275 So what we see here is. 81 00:05:29,474 --> 00:05:33,674 Uh, I diagram on the right hand side is underlying price strength. 82 00:05:34,094 --> 00:05:37,965 Now this is what you want to classically see when you, when we buying commodities, 83 00:05:39,284 --> 00:05:42,344 where what you're seeing is, is when the market tends to trade higher 84 00:05:42,434 --> 00:05:46,724 energetically as a leader market, it establishes the underlying direction. 85 00:05:46,815 --> 00:05:48,674 That's opposite to the dollar index. 86 00:05:49,544 --> 00:05:52,815 Now these markets are extremely profitable and our aim is to focus 87 00:05:52,815 --> 00:05:56,895 on these particular commodities to trade because they're going 88 00:05:56,895 --> 00:05:58,065 to be the strongest upside move. 89 00:05:59,295 --> 00:06:02,865 Short-term highs are gonna be seen, broken and declines are 90 00:06:02,865 --> 00:06:03,945 going to be shallow in nature. 91 00:06:04,935 --> 00:06:09,975 Every time price makes an upswing or it makes a up closing candle they're 92 00:06:09,975 --> 00:06:13,275 typically much larger than those that close lower or any short-term 93 00:06:13,275 --> 00:06:14,625 swings that move lower in price. 94 00:06:15,465 --> 00:06:20,565 The key is you only focusing on the commodities that fail to make 95 00:06:20,565 --> 00:06:24,015 a lower low they're basically diverging with the dollar and day. 96 00:06:24,810 --> 00:06:29,580 So if we see that we know that there's a professional accumulation or in this 97 00:06:29,580 --> 00:06:35,580 case, institutional sponsorship for buying, if the institutions step in and 98 00:06:35,580 --> 00:06:38,520 because they're going to be buying a whole lot more because their institutional 99 00:06:38,580 --> 00:06:43,800 volume is much larger than a speculator would be like you and I, that will 100 00:06:43,800 --> 00:06:47,490 facilitate the market rallying higher ed. 101 00:06:48,375 --> 00:06:52,395 Showing unwillingness to go lower because it's a large degree of buying 102 00:06:52,395 --> 00:06:55,484 coming in while there's the supply and demand factors that coming into 103 00:06:55,484 --> 00:06:58,995 force with the commodity, they're not going to permit price to go lower. 104 00:06:59,175 --> 00:07:03,075 So it will fail to make a lower low when the dollar index makes that higher high. 105 00:07:03,344 --> 00:07:06,885 You have to understand what the dollar index should be doing as a whole 106 00:07:06,885 --> 00:07:11,115 though, because it may not be so clear. 107 00:07:12,715 --> 00:07:15,925 Just by looking at higher highs and lower lows and commodities, 108 00:07:16,344 --> 00:07:19,344 when one diverse, it doesn't necessarily mean that there's a trade. 109 00:07:19,855 --> 00:07:22,945 You have to have the analysis on your dollar index, because that's going 110 00:07:22,945 --> 00:07:24,835 to set the tone for a prolonged move. 111 00:07:25,675 --> 00:07:28,195 If the dollar spent a weekend, that's going to provide. 112 00:07:29,010 --> 00:07:33,900 At least the intermediate term basis for the commodity market as a whole to rally, 113 00:07:34,109 --> 00:07:36,090 but not every commodity is going to rally. 114 00:07:36,780 --> 00:07:39,960 This is what ferrets out these strong moves and which is why we say 115 00:07:39,960 --> 00:07:45,479 it's relative strength, analysis, relatives, relatively speaking, a 116 00:07:45,510 --> 00:07:49,440 commodity that fails to make a lower low, like this it's stronger because 117 00:07:49,440 --> 00:07:50,909 it has failed to make a lower low. 118 00:07:51,599 --> 00:07:52,560 So when the dollar drops. 119 00:07:53,445 --> 00:07:57,435 Or shows weakness, this particular commodity, whatever, whichever 120 00:07:57,435 --> 00:08:00,945 one, it would be that creates this condition of scenario. 121 00:08:01,395 --> 00:08:03,255 That's the one we would be looking for. 122 00:08:03,255 --> 00:08:04,275 Bullish ideas. 123 00:08:09,655 --> 00:08:14,125 Now as we just discussed in the beginning of this teaching, I broken down the 124 00:08:14,365 --> 00:08:17,785 agricultural sector and the financial sector of the commodity markets. 125 00:08:18,085 --> 00:08:21,355 So we have a basket of commodities that we can follow in two 126 00:08:21,355 --> 00:08:26,725 divisions, one, the agricultural markets, things that are grown or. 127 00:08:27,505 --> 00:08:27,955 Okay. 128 00:08:28,585 --> 00:08:32,934 And then we have the synthetics, the things that are manmade or 129 00:08:33,294 --> 00:08:36,985 created or manufactured or drawn from the earth that don't breathe. 130 00:08:37,255 --> 00:08:37,554 Okay. 131 00:08:37,554 --> 00:08:38,485 Like oil and energies. 132 00:08:38,875 --> 00:08:44,365 So by having these two divisions in the commodity markets, we have 133 00:08:44,485 --> 00:08:48,535 a nice basket of choice to make. 134 00:08:49,135 --> 00:08:52,435 If there's a bias to the market as a whole, for the commodity market 135 00:08:52,435 --> 00:08:54,925 to go higher, that means that the dollar index should be going 136 00:08:54,925 --> 00:08:56,245 lower or expected to go lower. 137 00:08:57,375 --> 00:08:59,055 Not every commodity's going to go higher. 138 00:08:59,745 --> 00:09:03,585 The ones that fail to make that lower, low that's the one we were really focusing on. 139 00:09:03,825 --> 00:09:04,185 Okay. 140 00:09:04,485 --> 00:09:08,925 So that's really the heart of this teaching, but as we saw, there's 141 00:09:08,985 --> 00:09:13,185 different groups of commodities, like the livestock, and then there's 142 00:09:13,185 --> 00:09:14,355 the grains there's currencies. 143 00:09:14,955 --> 00:09:16,065 When we see those. 144 00:09:17,650 --> 00:09:20,290 Little groups of types of markets. 145 00:09:20,320 --> 00:09:23,980 Like again, all the meats like feeder, cattle, live cattle and lean hogs. 146 00:09:24,370 --> 00:09:27,040 Those three make up the livestock group. 147 00:09:29,050 --> 00:09:32,680 One of those meats may fail to make a lower low when the 148 00:09:32,680 --> 00:09:33,790 dollar is starting to go lower. 149 00:09:34,870 --> 00:09:37,390 And when it does that, it's showing leadership. 150 00:09:38,250 --> 00:09:41,400 For instance, it could be the live cattle market and feed your cattle 151 00:09:41,400 --> 00:09:45,330 may not have that higher, low form. 152 00:09:45,390 --> 00:09:48,990 It may make a lower low, like it's being described here graphically 153 00:09:48,990 --> 00:09:53,910 on the discharge and maybe lean hogs makes a lower low as well, but 154 00:09:53,970 --> 00:09:56,430 live cattle makes that higher load. 155 00:09:56,430 --> 00:10:00,720 We just showed in the previous slide, institutional sponsorship 156 00:10:00,960 --> 00:10:06,750 behind that particular commodity would send live cattle much. 157 00:10:07,650 --> 00:10:12,570 And a lot more magnitude and speed because you can see that they're buying 158 00:10:12,570 --> 00:10:19,470 that one up the other bit, um, meats or other commodities and other groups 159 00:10:19,470 --> 00:10:23,190 that may not show those evidences of a higher, low when the dollar is weakening. 160 00:10:24,765 --> 00:10:29,235 That would be seen as this and you would be seeing a sympathetic rally. 161 00:10:29,535 --> 00:10:29,925 Okay. 162 00:10:30,285 --> 00:10:34,875 And what we're seeing is you typically a commodity that makes a lower, low, but 163 00:10:35,085 --> 00:10:37,065 starts to trade higher sympathetically. 164 00:10:37,275 --> 00:10:39,375 So we have sympathetic price strength. 165 00:10:40,125 --> 00:10:42,375 Now this is going to be a market that tends to trade higher and 166 00:10:42,375 --> 00:10:45,555 sympathy to the leader market that establishes the underlying direction. 167 00:10:46,515 --> 00:10:48,765 While these markets are potentially profitable. 168 00:10:48,945 --> 00:10:52,245 Again, our aim is to focus on the leadership markets for the strongest one. 169 00:10:53,430 --> 00:10:56,939 Now short-term highs are seen, broken and declines are shallow in nature. 170 00:10:57,329 --> 00:11:01,140 And the upswings and up closing candles must like we saw with the 171 00:11:01,260 --> 00:11:02,760 institutionally sponsored rally. 172 00:11:03,120 --> 00:11:06,540 They're typically going to be larger than those that close, lower or move lower. 173 00:11:07,589 --> 00:11:11,640 So if you're trading a commodity that has the characteristics that 174 00:11:11,640 --> 00:11:15,060 are being described here, you're not actually buying the relative 175 00:11:15,060 --> 00:11:17,910 strength leader on the buy-side. 176 00:11:18,599 --> 00:11:20,250 You're actually buying a sympathetic. 177 00:11:21,180 --> 00:11:25,500 Rally or a, the six sister of the group. 178 00:11:25,800 --> 00:11:26,130 Okay. 179 00:11:26,130 --> 00:11:30,630 And not that you can't make money doing that because you can see that many 180 00:11:30,630 --> 00:11:35,069 times there's moves will be moving in sympathy and moving in tandem, but 181 00:11:35,069 --> 00:11:40,800 at a lesser degree in terms of speed magnitude, and it will be more lethargic. 182 00:11:41,880 --> 00:11:45,060 It may get to object that you trade and reach for, but. 183 00:11:46,819 --> 00:11:48,410 Not as strong and as quick. 184 00:11:48,410 --> 00:11:51,470 And it's sufficiently that you would be seeing it with the leadership. 185 00:11:56,090 --> 00:11:57,740 Obviously the opposite is seen here. 186 00:11:58,310 --> 00:12:02,930 Uh, institutionally sponsored decline is a market that tends to trade lower 187 00:12:02,930 --> 00:12:06,890 energetically as a leader market and establishes the underlying direction 188 00:12:06,920 --> 00:12:08,630 opposite to the dollar index. 189 00:12:09,500 --> 00:12:12,980 These markets are extremely profitable and our aim is to focus on these markets 190 00:12:12,980 --> 00:12:14,450 as they will be the strongest downside. 191 00:12:15,825 --> 00:12:18,795 Short-term Lowe's are going to be seen broken and rallies are going to be shallow 192 00:12:18,795 --> 00:12:25,185 in nature, downswings in price and or the down closing candles are typically 193 00:12:25,185 --> 00:12:30,915 much larger than those that show with closing higher or upswing in price. 194 00:12:32,415 --> 00:12:35,695 The key on this again, much like we saw with the institutional sponsor 195 00:12:35,745 --> 00:12:39,795 rally is the focal point of the failure swing to make a higher. 196 00:12:40,740 --> 00:12:44,370 When the dollar index is bullish and it's about the rally, that's 197 00:12:44,370 --> 00:12:47,070 gonna put underlying pressure on commodities as a whole. 198 00:12:47,430 --> 00:12:51,780 Not all the commodities are going to drop the ones that fail to make a higher high. 199 00:12:52,110 --> 00:12:54,960 They're going to be leadership on the downside. 200 00:12:55,170 --> 00:12:57,840 So they're going to be showing underlying price weakness. 201 00:13:03,555 --> 00:13:03,885 Okay. 202 00:13:04,335 --> 00:13:07,965 Much, like we saw with the sympathetic rally, we have a sympathetic decline. 203 00:13:08,235 --> 00:13:10,665 This is a market that tends to trade lower in sympathy to the 204 00:13:10,665 --> 00:13:13,335 leader market that established the underlying downside direction. 205 00:13:14,655 --> 00:13:16,395 While these markets are potentially profitable. 206 00:13:16,395 --> 00:13:19,605 Again, our aim is to focus on the leadership market for the 207 00:13:19,605 --> 00:13:24,735 weakest declines, just like we saw with the sympathetic rally. 208 00:13:25,635 --> 00:13:27,375 We can see short-term lows are being. 209 00:13:28,709 --> 00:13:31,050 And rallies are shallow in nature. 210 00:13:31,290 --> 00:13:35,790 The downside swings and down close candles are typically much larger than 211 00:13:35,790 --> 00:13:38,910 those, the close higher or the moves higher, just everything reversed. 212 00:13:38,910 --> 00:13:41,400 When we saw for the slide for the sympathetic rally. 213 00:13:42,120 --> 00:13:45,780 Basically what we're seeing is price weakness in a sympathetic 214 00:13:45,780 --> 00:13:47,400 nature to the leadership. 215 00:13:47,730 --> 00:13:51,750 Again, I'll use this analogy, uh, say the soybean mark. 216 00:13:53,125 --> 00:13:55,824 Was the leadership issue on the downside. 217 00:13:55,854 --> 00:14:00,594 It failed to make a higher high while the grain complex should be moving 218 00:14:00,594 --> 00:14:05,994 lower as a whole say, wheat makes a higher high in corn makes a higher 219 00:14:05,994 --> 00:14:10,944 high, but soybean makes that lower high, well, soybeans is going to 220 00:14:10,944 --> 00:14:12,415 be the outperform on the downside. 221 00:14:14,035 --> 00:14:17,484 Doesn't mean that wheat and corn won't decline, but it 222 00:14:17,484 --> 00:14:18,775 will be doing so in a separate. 223 00:14:19,635 --> 00:14:23,115 Fashion, like we're describing here again, when we focusing on the 224 00:14:23,115 --> 00:14:29,025 weakest of the commodities, the self short, and the way you determine 225 00:14:29,025 --> 00:14:30,825 that is by looking at their highs. 226 00:14:39,025 --> 00:14:39,265 All right. 227 00:14:39,265 --> 00:14:42,805 So actually let's go through the commodities as a basket 228 00:14:43,165 --> 00:14:44,515 and we'll start ferreting out. 229 00:14:44,515 --> 00:14:49,345 What we see generally when the dollar index is giving us indications that 230 00:14:49,345 --> 00:14:50,515 it wants to move higher or lower. 231 00:14:52,079 --> 00:14:59,130 First area of business is the, the middle of 2000 sixteens summer. 232 00:14:59,280 --> 00:15:06,270 We saw the dollar rallying up into January, 2017, making a high, and 233 00:15:06,270 --> 00:15:09,300 then we saw post January, 2017. 234 00:15:09,300 --> 00:15:11,550 We've been seeing continued weakness on the dollar. 235 00:15:12,329 --> 00:15:17,099 So from the middle of the summer of 2016, to the beginning of this 236 00:15:17,099 --> 00:15:24,415 year in 2017, We would expect to see commodities going lower while 237 00:15:24,415 --> 00:15:25,675 the dollar has been moving higher. 238 00:15:26,215 --> 00:15:29,515 And then obviously commodities from January to the present time of this 239 00:15:29,515 --> 00:15:36,444 recording June, 2017, we should be expecting commodities, the rally, or 240 00:15:36,444 --> 00:15:40,645 look for leadership issues to fail, to make lower lows, and then look for 241 00:15:40,645 --> 00:15:45,385 opportunities to be a buyer as a paper trader in those particular commodity. 242 00:15:46,275 --> 00:15:48,855 And that way you'll learn how the commodity markets work. 243 00:15:49,725 --> 00:15:51,255 First I'm looking at here is corn. 244 00:15:51,465 --> 00:15:53,955 We're going to go through the agriculturals first and 245 00:15:54,525 --> 00:15:55,725 corn is our first grain. 246 00:15:56,295 --> 00:16:03,375 And you can see that from the middle of 2016, we saw the decline in corn, as we 247 00:16:03,375 --> 00:16:12,185 would expect with a higher dollar and down below the August and September Lowe's 248 00:16:12,185 --> 00:16:14,825 who can see corn kept making a lower. 249 00:16:16,960 --> 00:16:23,620 Which was underlying weakness while the dollar index was making higher highs, 250 00:16:25,090 --> 00:16:31,420 the corn market showed a willingness to go a higher off of a higher, low. 251 00:16:31,420 --> 00:16:36,100 So we had a failure swing going into the latter portions of 252 00:16:36,100 --> 00:16:42,910 December, 2016, but we had extreme weakness shown in the move down. 253 00:16:44,564 --> 00:16:49,755 But December into January, we saw that higher, low form and the market 254 00:16:49,755 --> 00:16:55,605 went relatively sideways, small little modest move from 360 up to three 255 00:16:55,605 --> 00:16:58,365 90, which has only a 30 cent move. 256 00:16:59,235 --> 00:17:04,004 In this case, it would be about $1,500 per contract. 257 00:17:04,185 --> 00:17:06,944 So that's actually a very weak market. 258 00:17:07,214 --> 00:17:11,175 The green market for this, uh, specific commodity. 259 00:17:11,895 --> 00:17:13,035 Corn was weak. 260 00:17:13,065 --> 00:17:16,155 We didn't see any kind of leadership buying in here at all. 261 00:17:18,974 --> 00:17:21,255 The wheat market, much like corn. 262 00:17:21,255 --> 00:17:26,925 We saw this slide down from the summer months, making lower lows 263 00:17:27,135 --> 00:17:31,155 and then making a lower low, even in December going into January. 264 00:17:31,425 --> 00:17:34,785 So we had continued weakness on wheat. 265 00:17:34,995 --> 00:17:37,515 Disc grain stayed in a consolidation as well. 266 00:17:38,804 --> 00:17:41,895 I failed to make any kind of real significant rally higher. 267 00:17:42,524 --> 00:17:45,554 And its underlying weakness was seen in price action 268 00:17:49,334 --> 00:17:50,175 soybeans. 269 00:17:51,284 --> 00:17:56,264 We saw the summer decline going into August, but then August and September and 270 00:17:56,264 --> 00:18:00,735 October, we started seeing the soybean market failed to make lower lows while 271 00:18:00,735 --> 00:18:03,074 we saw the dollar making higher highs. 272 00:18:03,314 --> 00:18:06,554 So there was already indications that their soybean market was under accumulate. 273 00:18:07,440 --> 00:18:08,850 Because it was failing to go lower. 274 00:18:10,710 --> 00:18:19,140 In the second week of November going into January, 2017, we saw soybean market trade 275 00:18:19,140 --> 00:18:23,700 down with a higher, low, and actually talked about this during the mentorship. 276 00:18:23,730 --> 00:18:28,290 If you go back and the gerrymander, January current of our time together, 277 00:18:28,740 --> 00:18:32,340 you'll actually see me talk about that and mention those equal highs 278 00:18:32,340 --> 00:18:36,450 that were around that 10 80 level in this chart and price it rally. 279 00:18:38,160 --> 00:18:41,760 And we saw relative strength in the being complex. 280 00:18:42,150 --> 00:18:48,810 So soybeans across the drains group was the leadership issue. 281 00:18:49,290 --> 00:18:50,610 So soybeans were strong. 282 00:18:50,880 --> 00:18:54,870 So if you were looking to be a buyer in January, when the dollar index 283 00:18:54,870 --> 00:19:00,450 was making significant reasons to look for a lower move in the dollar, 284 00:19:00,450 --> 00:19:05,100 that's going to allow commodities, the rally soybeans in this case, rallies. 285 00:19:07,155 --> 00:19:10,545 About $4,500 per contract in terms of the move, 286 00:19:13,605 --> 00:19:15,855 the next one, we're going into the livestock group. 287 00:19:15,855 --> 00:19:21,405 Now, just like we saw in the previous commodities, we saw the decline 288 00:19:21,405 --> 00:19:24,315 from the summer months going down into the fall end of the year. 289 00:19:25,665 --> 00:19:28,605 But then we started seeing some accumulation scene in the 290 00:19:28,605 --> 00:19:31,305 middle of October going into the first week of December. 291 00:19:32,025 --> 00:19:37,024 So while the dollar index was making higher highs, The feeder cattle 292 00:19:37,024 --> 00:19:38,495 market was failing to go lower. 293 00:19:38,524 --> 00:19:40,774 So it was already showing signs of accumulation. 294 00:19:41,074 --> 00:19:43,835 If it's not going lower, there's only a one reason for that. 295 00:19:44,345 --> 00:19:47,044 It means that they are on their accumulation and they're buying it. 296 00:19:47,405 --> 00:19:50,975 Who is institutions are large traders, big players. 297 00:19:51,395 --> 00:19:53,495 So they're buying up feeder cattle 298 00:19:57,615 --> 00:20:00,885 and notice that we're seeing short-term highs being broken. 299 00:20:02,550 --> 00:20:05,400 And more short-term highs being broken. 300 00:20:06,060 --> 00:20:11,340 And then at a later time in March, when a dollar creates another intermediate 301 00:20:11,340 --> 00:20:16,290 term high and starts to sell off, we had that February, March time period where 302 00:20:16,560 --> 00:20:19,980 the feeder cattle market trades right back down into a bullish, shorter block. 303 00:20:20,460 --> 00:20:23,160 So we have the accumulation patterns seen here, but early signs were 304 00:20:23,160 --> 00:20:26,610 already shown that they were accumulating the feeder cattle market. 305 00:20:30,315 --> 00:20:33,045 Feeder cattle actually developed a premium, which will start 306 00:20:33,045 --> 00:20:34,875 teaching later on in this week. 307 00:20:34,905 --> 00:20:41,055 But the price of feeder cattle actually went in this case. 308 00:20:41,055 --> 00:20:41,775 Parabolic. 309 00:20:42,600 --> 00:20:46,290 And it was very strong as a result of that because we saw price show 310 00:20:46,290 --> 00:20:48,690 signs wanting to not go lower. 311 00:20:49,230 --> 00:20:50,730 It was breaking short-term highs. 312 00:20:51,150 --> 00:20:52,410 It was under accumulation. 313 00:20:52,410 --> 00:20:55,950 And then at a later time, when dollar index was ready to sell off again in March 314 00:20:55,950 --> 00:21:01,889 of 2017, that provided another buying opportunity for feeder cattle notice. 315 00:21:01,889 --> 00:21:07,290 Also the last half of February going into March, the dollar index was making 316 00:21:07,290 --> 00:21:09,660 higher highs around that 1 0 2 level. 317 00:21:11,385 --> 00:21:16,304 That last portion of February going into March on feeder cattle, I was 318 00:21:16,304 --> 00:21:19,784 making a higher, low again, that same accumulation pattern it's being 319 00:21:19,784 --> 00:21:23,084 seen there, but it's also occurring in a previous bullish order block. 320 00:21:23,084 --> 00:21:28,514 So we're a blending PDRs discount with the context that we should 321 00:21:28,514 --> 00:21:29,955 be seeing higher commodity prices. 322 00:21:30,195 --> 00:21:33,344 This one fit the bill because it had everything in favor for it. 323 00:21:34,334 --> 00:21:37,304 What does it translate into this move here? 324 00:21:38,280 --> 00:21:40,830 From the buy all the way to the high. 325 00:21:41,850 --> 00:21:44,580 Is there a $19,000 per contract of a move? 326 00:21:45,690 --> 00:21:46,590 Not too shabby. 327 00:21:49,139 --> 00:21:49,320 All right. 328 00:21:49,320 --> 00:21:52,440 The next one in the livestock complex is lean hogs. 329 00:21:53,885 --> 00:21:57,365 We saw the decline from the summer months, going down into September and October, 330 00:21:57,875 --> 00:22:00,815 and then October, November, December, we started seeing accumulation patterns. 331 00:22:00,815 --> 00:22:06,125 Again, mark was failing to go lower while the dollar index was making higher highs. 332 00:22:06,185 --> 00:22:09,965 We've seen clear cannulation patterns in the lean hogs market. 333 00:22:13,715 --> 00:22:18,695 Later on in 2017, we had another opportunity for the dollar index to 334 00:22:18,695 --> 00:22:22,445 sell off, trade up into a premium array, filled into liquidity void. 335 00:22:24,855 --> 00:22:28,334 Price trades lower on the dollar index, which is going to allow 336 00:22:28,574 --> 00:22:30,584 foolishness for commodities. 337 00:22:30,584 --> 00:22:36,195 Again, we can see in the lean hogs market, the market trades back down into 338 00:22:36,195 --> 00:22:44,324 a bullish order block, and we have a subsequent parabolic rally from the 68 339 00:22:46,064 --> 00:22:50,054 to 81 and a half cents for lean hogs. 340 00:22:50,054 --> 00:22:50,595 And that means. 341 00:22:51,450 --> 00:22:53,550 About $5,600 per contract. 342 00:22:57,149 --> 00:23:04,050 Last one in the livestock group is live cattle price trades down from the 343 00:23:04,050 --> 00:23:06,629 summer months into October making a low. 344 00:23:06,690 --> 00:23:09,870 And then from October going into November and December, we see 345 00:23:09,870 --> 00:23:14,040 accumulation occurring again in here while the dollar is rallying, the 346 00:23:14,070 --> 00:23:15,639 live cattle market is failing to go. 347 00:23:16,470 --> 00:23:19,980 So they're under massive accumulation, same scenario. 348 00:23:19,980 --> 00:23:23,730 We said earlier with the March high in the dollar index, creating a sell 349 00:23:23,730 --> 00:23:29,820 off, there's a buying opportunity in the live cattle market trades down into 350 00:23:29,820 --> 00:23:32,970 a bullish shorter block rallies away. 351 00:23:33,240 --> 00:23:37,620 And again, much like we saw with the feeder cattle market live cattle 352 00:23:37,710 --> 00:23:39,300 futures were very, very strong. 353 00:23:40,410 --> 00:23:43,230 It translates to a move of $12,000 per country. 354 00:23:46,680 --> 00:23:48,150 All right now, we're going into the foods. 355 00:23:48,930 --> 00:23:50,820 And the first thing on our list is Coco. 356 00:23:52,410 --> 00:23:56,160 Coco is clearly under a lot of distribution. 357 00:23:56,610 --> 00:23:58,920 They had a bumper crop. 358 00:23:58,950 --> 00:24:05,400 There was no real, uh, um, shortage of cocoa and there was no impulse. 359 00:24:06,255 --> 00:24:10,095 For the supply and demand factor to be swung to a shortage. 360 00:24:10,335 --> 00:24:16,695 So there was lots of supply of cocoa, which provided this consistent decline 361 00:24:16,695 --> 00:24:18,885 on the price of the cocoa futures. 362 00:24:20,085 --> 00:24:24,375 So we have no real indication that this is under any accumulation whatsoever. 363 00:24:26,525 --> 00:24:31,205 And our analysis comes away with Coco is very weak. 364 00:24:31,235 --> 00:24:34,055 It's not under accumulation, so this would never meet the criteria. 365 00:24:35,400 --> 00:24:40,140 While the dollar is dropping coffee St. 366 00:24:40,140 --> 00:24:40,710 Scenario. 367 00:24:41,010 --> 00:24:45,960 Um, we saw weakness market making lower lows in December, 368 00:24:45,960 --> 00:24:47,010 going into January as well. 369 00:24:47,010 --> 00:24:50,730 We had a nice little pop up, which is a nice little retracement, but 370 00:24:50,760 --> 00:24:55,290 it overall kept in sync with the, uh, the weakness that was seen 371 00:24:57,480 --> 00:24:59,160 to coffee here was weak as well. 372 00:25:02,250 --> 00:25:03,750 And sugar is our next. 373 00:25:05,685 --> 00:25:09,584 Again, we see in November going into the middle of December, 374 00:25:10,004 --> 00:25:12,435 we see sugar making lower lows. 375 00:25:12,675 --> 00:25:17,864 Um, we have a small little divergence at the lows that saw a rally up, but 376 00:25:17,864 --> 00:25:23,324 when we got back up into February, March, that, uh, that found its 377 00:25:23,895 --> 00:25:26,235 weakness after coming up into a. 378 00:25:27,605 --> 00:25:28,475 Premium right. 379 00:25:29,135 --> 00:25:31,355 Or bullish or block around that 2050 level. 380 00:25:31,715 --> 00:25:33,514 And this could not find any more bullishness. 381 00:25:33,514 --> 00:25:36,514 So in this case, we can see kind of like a mixed signal. 382 00:25:37,205 --> 00:25:39,065 So you could have looked at it as weakness. 383 00:25:39,815 --> 00:25:44,554 And then the last little portion of December going into January that higher, 384 00:25:44,554 --> 00:25:49,804 low, while the dollar index actually made a higher high, that's a D it's a 385 00:25:49,804 --> 00:25:52,024 divergence that would be a failure swing. 386 00:25:52,625 --> 00:25:54,514 So that's why you see that move higher. 387 00:25:55,290 --> 00:26:00,000 In sugar, but then it ultimately falls over and can't find anymore continuation. 388 00:26:00,000 --> 00:26:05,580 So I want to provide you opportunities where in realistic terms, you're gonna 389 00:26:05,580 --> 00:26:10,140 be able to see these things, but then you're also gonna see things that start 390 00:26:10,140 --> 00:26:12,240 off like a good move and then fail. 391 00:26:12,750 --> 00:26:15,420 And that's what real, that's what real environments are going to be like for you. 392 00:26:19,320 --> 00:26:20,940 So in this case here, sugar was weak. 393 00:26:23,160 --> 00:26:23,310 Okay. 394 00:26:23,320 --> 00:26:24,180 We're in the fibers. 395 00:26:25,725 --> 00:26:28,395 And we only have cotton in our basket of commodities to be worrying 396 00:26:28,395 --> 00:26:34,785 about the slide from August down in September, after an initial rally, uh, 397 00:26:34,815 --> 00:26:39,855 trades back down into a bullshitter block at September dollars rally. 398 00:26:40,965 --> 00:26:42,285 Cotton's not going lower. 399 00:26:42,375 --> 00:26:46,545 And you start seeing success of higher highs, higher lows. 400 00:26:46,665 --> 00:26:50,775 Every short-term highs, finding its way broken with no problem at all. 401 00:26:51,135 --> 00:26:53,565 And bullet shorter blocks are supporting price. 402 00:26:53,565 --> 00:26:56,745 So we can see clearly that this commodities under accumulation. 403 00:26:58,065 --> 00:27:00,855 So in this case here, cotton was a very strong commodity at the 404 00:27:00,855 --> 00:27:02,175 time when the dollar is weak. 405 00:27:03,105 --> 00:27:07,965 As a result, the move to transpires is over $8,000 per country. 406 00:27:11,310 --> 00:27:11,490 Okay. 407 00:27:11,490 --> 00:27:12,750 Now we're in their financials. 408 00:27:12,750 --> 00:27:16,920 We're looking at the 30 year treasury bond and I'm actually going to talk a lot 409 00:27:16,920 --> 00:27:19,740 more about bonds in the bond trading week. 410 00:27:20,010 --> 00:27:23,340 So you're going to see something in this chart that if you're a student 411 00:27:23,340 --> 00:27:25,710 of mine, obviously you're going to know right away what it looks like 412 00:27:25,710 --> 00:27:30,930 and what we should be talking about, but we're going to keep in a general 413 00:27:30,930 --> 00:27:36,765 terms, just for the commodity portion of this, uh, So we see the market making 414 00:27:36,765 --> 00:27:42,645 lower lows here, underlying weakness, and the bond market has been weak. 415 00:27:42,645 --> 00:27:44,505 We've only really traded in and consolidation. 416 00:27:44,505 --> 00:27:49,245 Haven't really made any significant moves higher, which has been the catalyst. 417 00:27:49,245 --> 00:27:54,705 I believe that why the markets are so fickle right now, we've had so many 418 00:27:54,705 --> 00:27:59,235 issues with, uh, finding sustained moves in, uh, foreign exchange. 419 00:28:01,004 --> 00:28:04,034 And it's going to be translated by looking at the chart here. 420 00:28:04,034 --> 00:28:07,754 You can see clearly that the market for the bonds have been range-bound and 421 00:28:07,754 --> 00:28:09,344 they haven't really moved much at all. 422 00:28:12,314 --> 00:28:15,405 And then we have the ten-year note, same thing we see underlying weakness. 423 00:28:17,235 --> 00:28:18,524 10 years is weak as well. 424 00:28:18,524 --> 00:28:21,645 And we only saw a consolidation transpired since then. 425 00:28:23,925 --> 00:28:24,824 And five-year notes. 426 00:28:24,824 --> 00:28:27,645 We actually saw weakness and then further weakness in March. 427 00:28:28,695 --> 00:28:30,105 And we've consolidated since then. 428 00:28:30,105 --> 00:28:33,375 So nothing's really happened that, that instruments and again, interest rates 429 00:28:33,375 --> 00:28:34,875 are what makes the markets go around. 430 00:28:35,025 --> 00:28:39,555 So if we're a currency trader, that's going to put a damper. 431 00:28:39,735 --> 00:28:44,055 If you will, on how we see sustained moves in the currency markets, 432 00:28:48,185 --> 00:28:49,145 taking the currencies. 433 00:28:49,385 --> 00:28:49,565 Okay. 434 00:28:49,565 --> 00:28:51,125 The first on our list is the Australian. 435 00:28:54,585 --> 00:28:55,515 Looking closely. 436 00:28:55,845 --> 00:28:59,985 Look at the highs on the dollar index going into January, we made 437 00:28:59,985 --> 00:29:03,675 a higher high and in the dollar index, we made that failure swing to 438 00:29:03,675 --> 00:29:05,595 go lower on the Australian dollar. 439 00:29:05,805 --> 00:29:09,255 If you go back in the January month, you actually see me talk 440 00:29:09,255 --> 00:29:11,055 about that very particular thing. 441 00:29:11,595 --> 00:29:15,045 There was weakness seen in the dollar index. 442 00:29:15,870 --> 00:29:16,680 At those highs. 443 00:29:17,100 --> 00:29:21,570 And we saw cumulation come in on the Australian dollar at those lows, 444 00:29:24,270 --> 00:29:29,670 incidentally, Australian dollar was strong with a differential. 445 00:29:29,670 --> 00:29:33,300 So the interest rate differential was a bonus for this one. 446 00:29:33,300 --> 00:29:36,150 So that's why we saw this nice extrapolate and move to the upside. 447 00:29:38,980 --> 00:29:40,570 The next one on our list is Canadian dollar. 448 00:29:41,170 --> 00:29:42,820 And this one here had basically an equal. 449 00:29:43,980 --> 00:29:50,129 And it started off with basically a modest bullishness to it, but finally gave up 450 00:29:50,129 --> 00:29:55,470 the ghost in February and roll right back over and followed suit with the dollar 451 00:29:55,470 --> 00:30:00,570 index, which again is kind of weird because the dollar index and Canadian 452 00:30:00,570 --> 00:30:03,149 dollar moving together makes it difficult. 453 00:30:05,909 --> 00:30:06,120 All right. 454 00:30:06,120 --> 00:30:09,780 So we have the Japanese yen next again, look very closely at the 455 00:30:09,780 --> 00:30:10,860 dollar index we made that higher. 456 00:30:11,669 --> 00:30:15,570 Going into January, but we have the higher, low in a Japanese yen. 457 00:30:16,409 --> 00:30:22,169 That's the accumulation that's seen by way of institutional sponsored rally. 458 00:30:23,580 --> 00:30:27,030 So we can see the market was making short-term highs, breaking those 459 00:30:27,030 --> 00:30:30,990 short-term highs in order blocks that were bullish were being supporting in price. 460 00:30:31,889 --> 00:30:33,540 So yen in this case was very strong. 461 00:30:34,169 --> 00:30:37,800 So this was our leadership issue as well for the currency markets. 462 00:30:37,800 --> 00:30:40,080 So it's Australian dollar and yen. 463 00:30:44,460 --> 00:30:45,840 Can we have the British pound here. 464 00:30:45,930 --> 00:30:47,760 This one has been lethargic. 465 00:30:49,350 --> 00:30:53,460 Uh, we have a slightly lower, low going into January from October, no 466 00:30:53,460 --> 00:30:55,050 real cumulation in this pair at all. 467 00:30:55,320 --> 00:30:58,830 Until we got around that March time period, when March creates the high 468 00:30:58,860 --> 00:31:02,550 in the dollar index, then we saw the opportunity for the cable to 469 00:31:02,550 --> 00:31:04,710 start rallying from that 1 22 level. 470 00:31:05,310 --> 00:31:07,710 But overall, the Powell market has been with. 471 00:31:10,520 --> 00:31:10,640 Okay. 472 00:31:10,640 --> 00:31:14,600 The next one here is the Swiss Frank and look closely again, 473 00:31:14,600 --> 00:31:16,430 you'll see that failure swing. 474 00:31:17,330 --> 00:31:20,090 So we have institutional sponsors at rally higher, low. 475 00:31:20,090 --> 00:31:25,460 When the dollar index makes a higher high weakness in the dollar 476 00:31:25,460 --> 00:31:29,960 index should see the foreign currencies rally, their calm dolls. 477 00:31:30,020 --> 00:31:30,950 They should go higher. 478 00:31:31,340 --> 00:31:34,820 In this case here, we see the Swiss Franc do that very thing and go home. 479 00:31:35,845 --> 00:31:39,405 At the March time period, when we saw the dollar index create a high, we 480 00:31:39,405 --> 00:31:43,635 had another intermediate term low on the Swiss Franc and it rallies again. 481 00:31:44,265 --> 00:31:50,055 And then in may last month where we saw the dollar and index trade 482 00:31:50,055 --> 00:31:52,035 up and close its fair value gap. 483 00:31:53,205 --> 00:31:58,725 As a premium array, the Swiss Franc creates a turtle suit long and closes 484 00:31:58,725 --> 00:32:02,325 in its fair value gap seen in the month of March and then rallies. 485 00:32:04,535 --> 00:32:08,375 So we have a very strong, so it's shrunk as a result. 486 00:32:08,675 --> 00:32:14,615 So we have the Australian dollar, the Japanese yen and the Swiss 487 00:32:14,615 --> 00:32:16,925 Frank as our leadership issues. 488 00:32:18,205 --> 00:32:19,235 And we have the Euro dollar. 489 00:32:19,775 --> 00:32:23,465 We have a higher, low also on this currency. 490 00:32:24,845 --> 00:32:30,125 So this one here we look and see, we have short-term highs being broken and all pre. 491 00:32:31,320 --> 00:32:35,130 Uh, Ray's being broken on the upside and in supporting price at 492 00:32:35,130 --> 00:32:39,600 the discount, a race to every bull shorter block, we see price being 493 00:32:40,020 --> 00:32:41,790 more accumulation and more rallying. 494 00:32:42,270 --> 00:32:44,250 So Euro was very strong here as well. 495 00:32:46,020 --> 00:32:51,030 And last in our group of currencies for the calm dolls, we see one more instance 496 00:32:51,060 --> 00:32:53,550 of a currency that had a different. 497 00:32:54,270 --> 00:32:56,850 The interest rate differential was a plus for this one as well. 498 00:32:57,270 --> 00:33:01,590 So in other words, if you, um, if you buy the, uh, New Zealand 499 00:33:01,590 --> 00:33:05,580 dollar in Aldi, um, it paid you a interest rate for, for holding 500 00:33:05,580 --> 00:33:07,080 onto it for a carry trade purposes. 501 00:33:07,680 --> 00:33:10,740 And those two currencies were actually the leader of all the 502 00:33:10,740 --> 00:33:13,620 interest rate differentials at the time for this beginning of this. 503 00:33:15,120 --> 00:33:19,199 And with this higher, low, which is institutional sponsored rally at a time 504 00:33:19,199 --> 00:33:23,250 when the institutions were looking to sell short on the dollar index in January, 505 00:33:23,820 --> 00:33:28,199 made a higher high in dollar, did not see that lower, low we expect in the 506 00:33:28,199 --> 00:33:30,300 New Zealand with a differential as well. 507 00:33:30,600 --> 00:33:33,629 So here was Kiwi, uh, as an upside leader as well. 508 00:33:35,909 --> 00:33:36,060 Okay. 509 00:33:36,060 --> 00:33:36,959 Moving over to the metal. 510 00:33:37,754 --> 00:33:37,935 Okay. 511 00:33:37,935 --> 00:33:41,775 We have another similar situation here where the gold market was failing. 512 00:33:41,805 --> 00:33:45,885 And we talked about this in January to go, was failing to make a lower, low. 513 00:33:45,885 --> 00:33:49,485 So we have institutional sponsored rally when the dollar 514 00:33:49,485 --> 00:33:50,745 index was making higher highs. 515 00:33:51,885 --> 00:33:58,155 And as a subsequent, uh, to that occurrence, we see all the 516 00:33:58,155 --> 00:34:02,595 bullshitter blocks providing support the price and premium rates being 517 00:34:02,595 --> 00:34:04,785 broken as price moves higher. 518 00:34:06,885 --> 00:34:09,944 Gold in this instance was a strong commodity to be a buyer. 519 00:34:12,134 --> 00:34:15,715 Silver start at the same way. 520 00:34:15,715 --> 00:34:20,605 Go did hire low institutional sponsorship around. 521 00:34:21,570 --> 00:34:25,620 And price was reaching through premium arrays will sort of blocks were supporting 522 00:34:25,620 --> 00:34:30,870 price until we got up around that 1850 level, it fell out of bed and came 523 00:34:30,870 --> 00:34:35,250 all the way back down, but trading a bullish quarter block at that 16 level, 524 00:34:35,639 --> 00:34:39,989 which I talked about at the time of the decline that we got down to that 525 00:34:39,989 --> 00:34:41,790 level, an interesting buying options. 526 00:34:42,614 --> 00:34:45,855 And we, since then rallied 168 points. 527 00:34:46,125 --> 00:34:53,114 So almost a 7,000 plus dollars per contract, if you were looking 528 00:34:53,114 --> 00:34:55,935 to trade that 16 level, but it was modestly strong here. 529 00:34:56,444 --> 00:35:01,485 And as a side note, I actually was very, very bullish on silver, uh, much 530 00:35:01,485 --> 00:35:05,955 more than gold, uh, but for whatever reason, it failed at 1850 level. 531 00:35:05,955 --> 00:35:07,605 And the storyline changed from them. 532 00:35:11,655 --> 00:35:11,805 Okay. 533 00:35:11,805 --> 00:35:13,845 The last metal we're going to look at is high grade copper. 534 00:35:14,565 --> 00:35:18,105 And you can see the accumulation that was really on their way in September, in 535 00:35:18,105 --> 00:35:19,905 October, failing to make a lower, low. 536 00:35:20,325 --> 00:35:25,425 And finally, this exploded on the upside and copper here was 537 00:35:25,425 --> 00:35:27,345 a very strong metal as well. 538 00:35:30,555 --> 00:35:35,355 And finally, for the energy complex, uh, in our commodity basket, we have current. 539 00:35:36,225 --> 00:35:40,965 And crude oil was failing to make lower lows as the dollar index was rallying. 540 00:35:42,405 --> 00:35:48,495 And this particular energy was under accumulation around the $43 a barrel mark. 541 00:35:48,765 --> 00:35:54,345 And then finally rally up and you can see crude oil was a strong commodity as well. 542 00:35:59,175 --> 00:36:00,965 So what we've done is we've gone through all the. 543 00:36:02,310 --> 00:36:04,890 And we use relative strength analysis to fair it out. 544 00:36:05,250 --> 00:36:09,180 The leadership issues when the market should be seeing commodities trade higher, 545 00:36:09,450 --> 00:36:11,040 notice that all of them did not trade. 546 00:36:11,955 --> 00:36:15,645 But we were able to go in looking at price action, no indicators, 547 00:36:15,645 --> 00:36:16,815 node bells, and whistles. 548 00:36:17,055 --> 00:36:21,285 There's simply understanding what the pattern looks like when large 549 00:36:21,945 --> 00:36:23,535 institutions step in and buy. 550 00:36:23,835 --> 00:36:25,005 What does that pattern look like? 551 00:36:25,035 --> 00:36:26,235 It's that failure swing. 552 00:36:26,625 --> 00:36:30,915 It's the fact that short-term highs are being broken and premium. 553 00:36:30,915 --> 00:36:36,495 Rays are not respecting anything in terms of offering resists. 554 00:36:37,275 --> 00:36:41,295 It's been broken through and then all of the discounter rays are supporting price. 555 00:36:42,495 --> 00:36:45,285 Everything that we've shown here is reversed. 556 00:36:45,345 --> 00:36:50,685 When the dollar index is bullish and we would be looking for bears, ideas 557 00:36:50,685 --> 00:36:54,645 and commodities, and we go through the commodity markets and look, everything 558 00:36:54,645 --> 00:36:56,505 that we did here, just in opposite terms. 559 00:36:57,285 --> 00:37:00,315 But for agriculturals, what we've done is we fared it out. 560 00:37:00,585 --> 00:37:05,265 The leadership from the grains, it was the soybean market out of the livestock. 561 00:37:05,295 --> 00:37:09,855 All three of them did well, but feeder cattle was by far the absolute 562 00:37:09,855 --> 00:37:13,455 leader, feeder cattle actually developed a premium, which we'll 563 00:37:13,455 --> 00:37:14,955 teach later on in this week about. 564 00:37:15,405 --> 00:37:18,425 And why don't you use it as an example as well, but the Peter 565 00:37:18,425 --> 00:37:19,945 cattle market was the upside. 566 00:37:21,765 --> 00:37:26,505 On the foods notice there was an absence of really anything that lends well 567 00:37:26,505 --> 00:37:30,375 for a buying opportunity out of all the foods, they were all relatively 568 00:37:30,375 --> 00:37:34,215 weak, the fibers, where are we? 569 00:37:34,215 --> 00:37:34,485 Again? 570 00:37:34,485 --> 00:37:37,575 We have lumber is in that group, but we don't look at lumber cause it's kind of 571 00:37:37,575 --> 00:37:41,895 too thin in my opinion, uh, cotton wasn't outperformed on the outside as well. 572 00:37:42,345 --> 00:37:45,285 Cause it was underneath a professional accumulation. 573 00:37:46,605 --> 00:37:47,595 So we fared it out. 574 00:37:47,595 --> 00:37:49,755 1, 2, 3, 4, 5 markets. 575 00:37:49,755 --> 00:37:54,345 Out of all, the agricultural markets are trading patterns and price action 576 00:37:54,345 --> 00:37:58,695 analysis concept helps us find where the leadership issues are going to be 577 00:37:58,725 --> 00:38:02,505 as a buying opportunity financials. 578 00:38:03,255 --> 00:38:04,845 We didn't see anything in the debt instruments. 579 00:38:04,845 --> 00:38:07,395 I'm up in saying this all year long, which is the reason why the 580 00:38:07,455 --> 00:38:09,615 markets have been pretty much. 581 00:38:10,440 --> 00:38:11,550 Next to untradeable. 582 00:38:12,450 --> 00:38:17,910 Um, the currencies, we see that Australian dollar, the yen, the 583 00:38:17,910 --> 00:38:20,460 Frank, the Euro, and the Kiwi. 584 00:38:20,490 --> 00:38:23,940 We're all upside leadership in the metals. 585 00:38:24,030 --> 00:38:25,830 All three of them did very, very well here. 586 00:38:26,220 --> 00:38:28,380 Silver was the weakest sister of them all. 587 00:38:30,615 --> 00:38:32,595 But go was the outperformer in my opinion. 588 00:38:33,044 --> 00:38:36,254 Uh, we did have a lot of strength on copper, but you only have one 589 00:38:36,254 --> 00:38:37,575 real opportunity to get in that one. 590 00:38:37,875 --> 00:38:41,504 So that's why I'm saying gold was the top performer cause gold gave you 591 00:38:41,504 --> 00:38:42,705 a couple of differences to get in. 592 00:38:43,274 --> 00:38:48,555 And lastly, in our basket of commodities is crude oil and we saw that when also 593 00:38:48,555 --> 00:38:53,085 provide a nice opportunity to be a buyer, nothing really to compare it to 594 00:38:53,355 --> 00:38:55,845 it used to be, uh, uh, heating oil and. 595 00:38:57,150 --> 00:38:58,890 And let it gas and natural gas. 596 00:38:58,890 --> 00:39:03,060 I would look at, um, when I was actually looking at commodities as a major 597 00:39:03,060 --> 00:39:06,029 asset class, and it was only thing I was trading at the time, but if you're 598 00:39:06,029 --> 00:39:09,600 going to have a basket of commodities to watch, I think this is a very good one. 599 00:39:10,170 --> 00:39:15,180 Um, it's well balanced and it gives you a nice universe to work within, and it gives 600 00:39:15,180 --> 00:39:20,130 you an ability to work within multiple groups, to look for leadership issues. 601 00:39:20,130 --> 00:39:24,870 And as we indicated and shown here in this teaching, not all commodities. 602 00:39:25,725 --> 00:39:26,504 Are equal. 603 00:39:27,194 --> 00:39:29,625 They're not going to perform the same. 604 00:39:30,765 --> 00:39:33,315 You have to have tools and concepts to go through. 605 00:39:33,794 --> 00:39:38,984 And as, as a process, eliminate the ones that are not performing as you 606 00:39:38,984 --> 00:39:42,645 would expect in price action and focus on the ones that are giving you 607 00:39:42,645 --> 00:39:46,725 that fingerprint, hallmark signature, that there is huge accumulation. 608 00:39:46,725 --> 00:39:46,785 Yeah. 609 00:39:48,000 --> 00:39:49,859 And or distribution. 610 00:39:50,220 --> 00:39:54,660 So by using this concept, it will help fared out all the 611 00:39:55,259 --> 00:39:57,060 better moving opportunities. 612 00:39:57,390 --> 00:40:01,410 When the markets are predisposed to go in one direction or another until 613 00:40:01,410 --> 00:40:02,790 next lesson, I wish you good luck. 55101

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