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Okay folks.
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Welcome to lesson eight, a one shot,
one kill trading model for the short
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00:00:15,660 --> 00:00:18,780
term trading module four ICT mentorship.
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This is the last of March's content.
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Okay.
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One shot, one kill set up.
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What does it require to do these
efficiently and successfully?
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00:00:35,310 --> 00:00:39,150
Well, first you have to know
all the macro conditions and all
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00:00:39,150 --> 00:00:40,769
of the January content lessons.
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You have to be proficient with
understanding the, if the data ranges
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00:00:46,950 --> 00:00:51,450
looking back at the last 20, 40, and
60 trading days, looking for PDA Ray
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00:00:51,660 --> 00:00:55,379
matrix concepts applied to both timing.
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00:00:59,145 --> 00:01:02,475
You need an understanding of
position trading, logical concepts.
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00:01:05,815 --> 00:01:08,395
You need to understand the
swing trading module concepts,
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00:01:12,275 --> 00:01:15,545
the short-term trading
tutorials on the ICT website,
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00:01:19,265 --> 00:01:22,445
the power three concept applied
to weekly candles or ranges.
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00:01:23,675 --> 00:01:24,965
And I'll talk about that in a few more.
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The intraday concepts from
ICT day trading modules,
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Dave, we concept looking for the
higher load of form on Monday through
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Wednesday with the 77 odds of it
happening using fibs for targeting
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and understanding the correct price.
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00:01:52,845 --> 00:01:58,155
Time of day or ICT kills zones for
entries on one shot, one kill setups,
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00:02:01,205 --> 00:02:03,305
and you begin to see seasonal
tendencies that may impact
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00:02:03,305 --> 00:02:04,925
or frame directional setups.
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00:02:07,315 --> 00:02:11,545
And lastly, you need to understand the
cot or commitment of traders analysis
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00:02:12,025 --> 00:02:13,495
and commercial hedging programs.
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00:02:14,335 --> 00:02:14,725
Now.
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I said when we started this
mentorship that this was intended
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to fill in the gaps that I purposely
left in all my free tutorials.
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00:02:25,410 --> 00:02:31,110
Now, if you've gone through the mentorship
so far, and you've not really studied
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all of my free tutorials that are on
my website now, where are you going to
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00:02:35,970 --> 00:02:39,150
feel that sting of having never done it?
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It was intended.
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00:02:41,010 --> 00:02:44,490
And I've told you before the
prerequisite is to know those free.
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Everything that I'm going to
show you in this module is really
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just a quick fill in the gaps.
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00:02:52,484 --> 00:02:53,715
And then you'll understand how it is.
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I do one shot, one kill the gaps that
remain for this month are filled in with
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00:02:59,505 --> 00:03:02,834
the intraday concepts for day trading.
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00:03:03,734 --> 00:03:07,125
And it just basically
helps you get more precise.
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00:03:07,665 --> 00:03:08,505
Do you need it?
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00:03:08,805 --> 00:03:09,674
Not necessarily.
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Will you want it most likely?
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00:03:13,980 --> 00:03:18,780
So if you go on this far and you really
want to know all the intricate details
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00:03:18,780 --> 00:03:25,890
about how I finally narrowed down very
tight, small risk, high yield setups,
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like you've seen a line and mapped
out this week with the year of dollar.
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Yeah.
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00:03:31,200 --> 00:03:36,540
And you need the intraday concepts to
get that precise, but you don't need
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00:03:36,540 --> 00:03:43,125
it to do one shot, one kill because you
know, He has other things that, uh, help
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00:03:43,125 --> 00:03:46,125
you get close to, but not that precise.
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00:03:47,024 --> 00:03:50,475
That's already been shown in the content
for this month and the previous months
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00:03:52,065 --> 00:03:56,834
now, as it relates to the cot analysis
and commercial heading programs, uh,
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obviously everyone's aware of the
commitment traders report, where they
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plot the net traders position of each
commercial and small speculator and large.
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00:04:08,115 --> 00:04:10,965
And Larry Williams was the
first one to do real good work
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00:04:10,995 --> 00:04:12,525
on that back in the seventies.
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What is book?
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How I made a million dollars
trading commodities last year,
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00:04:18,225 --> 00:04:22,035
but in my own study, I believe
I've taken it to another level.
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No one else does what
I do with the CT data.
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And I'm going to show you again, is
module and it's teaching and how it is
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that I, uh, incorporate that information.
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Now, when we get to commodities, Later
on this year, when I'm teaching the
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commodities, I'll actually show you how
to go in and construct the commercial
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hedges program and how to look for high
probability setups using the information.
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But I'm going to give you one
set up in here for the year.
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Now that was just like a no-brainer.
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So you'll see why this week was this
pretty much no problem at all, knowing
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that was going to come down like it did.
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All right.
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00:05:07,775 --> 00:05:09,635
So the one shot, one
killed trade procedure.
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Okay.
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This is kind of like a
back of a matchbook idea.
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Uh, just real quick short.
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And what I mean by that is you
should already know a majority
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of what I'm going to refer to.
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Procedurally.
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So this is the reason why you
need to have a mentorship.
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This is the reason why you had to
have a modular approach to learning,
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because there's such a vast amount of
information that you need to be aware of.
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You just simply can't make a video and
here it is, here's how you trade for
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those that have gone through all of
my free tutorials and this far in the
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00:05:41,730 --> 00:05:46,320
mentorship, you can now think about
how much information you now have.
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You probably flounder for a little while.
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Wondering, do I have too much information?
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Do I have analysis paralysis?
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And it's simply because you
haven't had a procedural way
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of using all the information.
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So we've gone through a lot of content
between the free tutorials since 2010,
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all the way to now, now through 2016,
2017, circa you are now learning all of
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the procedural things that fills in the.
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And by the time you end this mentorship
you'll know everything there.
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Isn't about ICT concepts
and how to apply it.
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But the first thing we do when we
look at our market and we're going
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to use your dollar as our example,
we're going to determine the current
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or potential next quarterly shift.
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Remember that we talked
about that in January.
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We're going to identify the
higher timeframe PD arrays
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in the IPTA data ranges.
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Again, that's content from January.
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We're going to refer to the
interest rate differentials and
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market profile of the rates.
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In other words, our interest rates
or treasuries or the ballooned,
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are those markets trending or are
they stuck in a consolidation?
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If they're trending, then you're going to
get movement permitted in the Euro dollar.
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If they're consolidated and
tight, it's going to be very
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hard for the market to move over.
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We're going to be scouting seasonals
throughout the calendar year that offer
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high odds of a move going higher or
lower based on the seasonal tendency.
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Respectively,
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we're going to use swinging analysis
on price action on higher timeframes,
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down to the 60 minute chart.
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So in other words, what we're doing is
we're classifying all the price swings.
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We're looking at all the fractals.
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We went over how larger trends have
smaller swings that break into smaller
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swings that break in the smaller swings.
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First, an impulse swing than an
expansion swing after the retracement.
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So by looking at the market in your
dollar and breaking that down, we can come
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to the conclusion of what price swings
we use for projections measurements.
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And retracements,
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we're going to anticipate specific
weekly profiles that may have.
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Based on our analysis.
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If we're looking for lower prices,
as we're going to justifying this
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teaching, we're going to looking
for specific market templates, if
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you will, that allow bearish ideas.
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So the first thing you would look
for is the Monday high, the week,
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Tuesday high, the week, Wednesday
reversal those types of scenarios.
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Then by identifying those
respective templates for the week.
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We're gonna be looking at the market
maker, manipulation templates to have
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the respective profile characteristics.
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Then you determine where the premium
and discount ranges are in price action,
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and going to wait for volatility
to signal a high odds of a
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large range being created.
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In other words, when range expansion says.
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Small ranges.
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We got large ranges.
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If the market's in big ranges, we
know there's going to be a high
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probability for the market to go quiet.
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We want to be getting him in the market.
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It's quiet so that we can expand and
get larger ranges and big volatility
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wherever you refer to cot, which
has commitment of traders, then the
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commercials versus the large traders and
open interest to confirm smart money.
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Yeah.
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We looked to frame and low resistance
liquidity run with opposing PDRs
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or for bearish, we're looking to
sell short at a premium PDA, and
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then we're going to be looking at
a discount PDA to pair it up with
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we're going to use fibs
converging with opposing PDA res
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and blending it with time of.
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In other words, what I'm looking for
is a Fibonacci level that overlaps
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with a logical discount PD array,
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and we're gonna be confirming our
trade setups with intermarket analysis.
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All right.
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So we're looking at our one shot, one
kill set up on a Eurodollar dollar.
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Provided to you this week, the time
of this recording the last week of
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March, 2017, um, I outlined through
Twitter and tweets the basis of
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expecting a high the form in a Euro
dollar around the 1 0 9 0 8 level.
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That was the level I called and the
actual high was 1 0 9 0 9 4 XLT DS.
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Uh, I projected a low the week at 1 0 6 50
that could have rolled over into Monday.
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But throughout the week I
gave a 1 0 695 low object.
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And then ultimately, uh, at the
very last minute of the day on
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Fridays close, um, they pushed
the Euro dollar down to 1 0 6 55.
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Now our objective was 1 0 6 50.
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If that's what we're looking
for, we add five pips to that.
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That would have been.
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Your objective used in your own platform?
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Uh, some chump traders
in my own live feeds.
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Uh, I got down to one or 6 49, 7.
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Um, I'll leave it up to you to
determine what, you know, what your,
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uh, data provider allowed for the
low of the week for your dollar.
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But, uh, for the Forex LTD, it
didn't make it down to a one to six
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50, but I'm suspecting is probably
going to open up lower on Sunday.
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That's coming this weekend and then
obviously, uh, that would fulfill
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the whole projected a swing, but
we're going to go into great detail
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about all of this amount apart
from what's already been shared.
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And this chart here, I'm not going
to rehash what was already talked
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about in this week's teachings in
the videos and commentary, because
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that is in my opinion, a golden.
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And you need to go through those notes
as well, but what framed this whole
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move and how I knew that the high
could most likely be formed on Monday.
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00:12:33,570 --> 00:12:35,820
And we would look for a low one or six 50.
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We're going to go into
details about that now.
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Okay.
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So the first thing we're
looking for is we're expecting
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either a up move or a download.
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So how do we start doing that
while we go to our seasonal 10?
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Okay.
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Um, if you're a sports fan, you'd like
to go and watch a specific store, a
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sports team, um, like the baseball season
or football season, you can actually
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track when those teams play on what
days and the calendar days and all that.
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00:13:03,000 --> 00:13:07,439
And you know, when they're going to
play, they have, they have a schedule.
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00:13:07,439 --> 00:13:10,439
They have to keep, well, the
markets almost have like a
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00:13:10,439 --> 00:13:11,939
built-in generic schedule.
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00:13:12,795 --> 00:13:17,655
And is followed or tracked by
way of using a seasonal tendency.
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00:13:18,015 --> 00:13:21,435
Now I shared these seasonal tendencies
with you so far in the mentorship.
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00:13:22,035 --> 00:13:27,584
And what we do is we look for times where
the market has a real clear indication
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00:13:27,795 --> 00:13:33,255
in both the longterm and short term,
basically the blue and the red lines.
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They have to agree with a
directional bias and when they
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move in the same direction, right.
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If they move in concert with one
another, we have a really strong
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00:13:43,319 --> 00:13:47,579
tendency to see that market
generally moving that same direction.
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What we're going to focus on
here is the month of March.
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As you can see it initially starts off
with a rally up into the middle of March,
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00:13:57,810 --> 00:14:01,770
and then it declines to the last week of
March going into the first week of April.
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00:14:02,550 --> 00:14:05,849
So our tendency is to see the
Euro dollar going through.
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00:14:06,990 --> 00:14:10,229
So we have a strong seasonal tendency
for bears prices for your dollar.
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00:14:13,280 --> 00:14:16,949
Now we're going to go over to the
commitment of traders hedging program.
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00:14:17,250 --> 00:14:19,290
Now you're not going to
find this on the internet.
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00:14:19,319 --> 00:14:20,430
There's nothing talked about.
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00:14:20,430 --> 00:14:21,540
It's not in books.
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00:14:21,900 --> 00:14:23,459
I swear to the Lord almighty.
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00:14:23,609 --> 00:14:26,130
There's nothing out there like
what I'm showing you here.
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00:14:26,520 --> 00:14:26,849
Okay.
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00:14:26,880 --> 00:14:30,270
What I do is I use the information
from the commander trader's
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00:14:30,270 --> 00:14:34,170
report and I make a new.
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00:14:35,355 --> 00:14:38,175
Way of, uh, creating a zero sum line.
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00:14:38,505 --> 00:14:41,985
So what I do is I look
at the last year, okay.
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00:14:41,985 --> 00:14:46,845
And I get the highest high and lowest
low of their commercial activity.
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00:14:46,905 --> 00:14:49,335
In other words, I'm only tracking
commercials and I'll show you how to
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00:14:49,335 --> 00:14:51,225
create all this and make it for yourself.
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00:14:51,255 --> 00:14:55,305
It's a full Preet bowl in our
group have emailed me asking
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00:14:55,305 --> 00:14:56,865
for this specific indicator.
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00:14:57,285 --> 00:14:58,575
There is no indicator.
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00:14:58,815 --> 00:14:59,175
Okay.
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00:14:59,205 --> 00:15:02,415
What I actually do is I
actually create this with.
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00:15:03,360 --> 00:15:03,630
Okay.
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00:15:03,630 --> 00:15:07,140
I grabbed the information and
then I actually by hand create it.
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00:15:07,380 --> 00:15:08,520
And I know what you're thinking.
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We'll attract 39 markets.
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00:15:10,350 --> 00:15:10,800
Michael.
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There's no way to keep up with that.
231
00:15:12,540 --> 00:15:13,290
Well, that's your fault.
232
00:15:13,329 --> 00:15:14,850
You shouldn't be tracking 39 markets.
233
00:15:15,150 --> 00:15:19,920
But when I focus on the two pairs that I
like, which is Euro and cable, it takes
234
00:15:19,920 --> 00:15:21,329
literally seconds for me to do this.
235
00:15:21,329 --> 00:15:25,170
And it's not a big deal, but if you're
going to be that hard up about it,
236
00:15:25,380 --> 00:15:27,410
I'm sure some of you that are in our.
237
00:15:28,860 --> 00:15:33,870
Um, Kate Wolf programming, something,
I'm certain of it, but, uh, once
238
00:15:33,870 --> 00:15:36,630
you learn how to do that, when we
do go into our commodity teaching,
239
00:15:36,960 --> 00:15:38,100
uh, I'll leave it up to you.
240
00:15:38,100 --> 00:15:42,690
Uh, you smart whippersnappers that throw
something together, maybe for empty for
241
00:15:42,990 --> 00:15:46,980
platform that can, uh, you know, provide
us, uh, grow quick, easy way of doing it.
242
00:15:47,160 --> 00:15:49,590
And then you can go back to
trading, you know, umpteen number
243
00:15:49,590 --> 00:15:51,000
of pairs with the information.
244
00:15:51,690 --> 00:15:56,520
But what I do is I look at
the hedging program that is.
245
00:15:57,875 --> 00:16:00,575
Illustrated by looking at
the last calendar year.
246
00:16:00,875 --> 00:16:04,745
So I roll back data for 12 months
and I look at the highest highs
247
00:16:04,755 --> 00:16:08,855
and lowest low in their net
positions of the commercials only.
248
00:16:08,855 --> 00:16:10,835
I'm not looking at the large
traders or the small speck.
249
00:16:10,865 --> 00:16:11,375
I don't really care.
250
00:16:11,405 --> 00:16:14,885
The small specs are doing, but
when we track commitment of
251
00:16:14,885 --> 00:16:16,775
traders, report data for CO2.
252
00:16:18,839 --> 00:16:21,750
Every week, this, uh, CFTC
commodity futures trading commission
253
00:16:21,780 --> 00:16:26,640
requires traders that trade at
a reportable level to report
254
00:16:26,670 --> 00:16:27,720
whether they're buying or selling.
255
00:16:28,350 --> 00:16:32,100
And the net positions that are held
because the commercial traders are
256
00:16:32,100 --> 00:16:36,180
like banks and large institutions and
manufacturers of goods or commodities.
257
00:16:37,199 --> 00:16:42,689
There are groups that produce that are
commercial level, and there are groups
258
00:16:42,720 --> 00:16:49,055
that are consuming or, um, Resellers.
259
00:16:49,265 --> 00:16:49,564
Okay.
260
00:16:49,564 --> 00:16:54,814
So there are users and creators of
the commodity on a commercial level.
261
00:16:55,145 --> 00:16:57,484
And based on that, there's
always going to be buying and
262
00:16:57,484 --> 00:16:58,714
selling on a commercial basis.
263
00:16:59,344 --> 00:17:02,135
The net positions, okay.
264
00:17:02,135 --> 00:17:06,034
Are the collective whole of all
their total buys and all their
265
00:17:06,034 --> 00:17:10,865
total sales and what are they more
net long or net short as a basis.
266
00:17:11,704 --> 00:17:15,004
And what I do is I take that information
that comes by way of the CFTC.
267
00:17:16,260 --> 00:17:22,620
And I plot this graph here by simply
using a website and the information, and
268
00:17:22,680 --> 00:17:24,810
just basically throwing in some lipstick.
269
00:17:24,870 --> 00:17:30,330
And it helps me visually see what the
commercials are doing in terms of hedging.
270
00:17:31,830 --> 00:17:36,720
As you can see at the time of this week,
the commercials, which is tracked by
271
00:17:36,720 --> 00:17:39,540
this line as it's below the zero line.
272
00:17:39,990 --> 00:17:40,290
Okay.
273
00:17:40,290 --> 00:17:41,760
It's going to be marked red.
274
00:17:41,820 --> 00:17:44,100
That's going to be bearish
when it's above is.
275
00:17:45,660 --> 00:17:47,310
Their net long, that would be bullish.
276
00:17:47,580 --> 00:17:47,970
Okay.
277
00:17:48,180 --> 00:17:55,110
And back below the zero line, which
would be represented between 150 K.
278
00:17:55,379 --> 00:17:55,800
Okay.
279
00:17:56,040 --> 00:18:01,110
That, that line I have drawn in there
that blue line that represents the new
280
00:18:01,230 --> 00:18:05,010
zero line that would otherwise be viewed
like a regular commitment shares report.
281
00:18:06,180 --> 00:18:08,070
You don't need to see that as a.
282
00:18:11,105 --> 00:18:16,024
I'm going to teach later on, but I've
shown this in, uh, real quick, uh, short
283
00:18:16,024 --> 00:18:18,125
sessions, uh, throughout my time teaching.
284
00:18:18,605 --> 00:18:21,514
Uh, but I'm going to give you the
details of it, how to use it in great
285
00:18:21,514 --> 00:18:23,615
detail about how I break it down.
286
00:18:23,855 --> 00:18:26,645
There's actual seasonal tendencies
to their hedging programs
287
00:18:26,645 --> 00:18:27,635
that you actually look at too.
288
00:18:27,995 --> 00:18:31,685
And they're seasonal tendencies that go
along with open interest declines as well.
289
00:18:31,685 --> 00:18:34,554
And it's really the information
you need to know that to do.
290
00:18:35,475 --> 00:18:39,675
Um, mega trades, mega trader, like huge
big moves that take place every year.
291
00:18:39,675 --> 00:18:41,625
There's like two or three
of them are really explode.
292
00:18:41,685 --> 00:18:43,845
You want to be focusing on markets
that give you those types of
293
00:18:44,295 --> 00:18:46,575
conditions, but I'm digressing.
294
00:18:46,575 --> 00:18:49,185
So let me get back to that
discussion with the Euro dollar.
295
00:18:50,055 --> 00:18:55,275
At the time of this week, the Euro dollar
was making a higher high than that of
296
00:18:55,275 --> 00:18:57,555
in January, but look at the commercial.
297
00:18:58,334 --> 00:19:00,195
They were hedging against those rallies.
298
00:19:00,254 --> 00:19:04,185
And they really went net short
selling aggressively in the
299
00:19:04,185 --> 00:19:09,225
rally above the January high
and the December high of 2016.
300
00:19:10,455 --> 00:19:15,524
So as we made a higher high in the
Euro, the commercials were actually
301
00:19:15,524 --> 00:19:17,415
selling aggressively in that rally.
302
00:19:18,014 --> 00:19:19,185
So what are we seeing here?
303
00:19:19,605 --> 00:19:25,215
Seasonal tendency that's highly probable
for lower Euro prices at the same time.
304
00:19:25,215 --> 00:19:25,605
Commercial.
305
00:19:26,520 --> 00:19:31,740
Are looking to sell short or they
want to see prices going lower.
306
00:19:31,830 --> 00:19:32,190
Why?
307
00:19:32,250 --> 00:19:33,990
Because they're hedging
against that rally.
308
00:19:34,710 --> 00:19:35,940
They're selling into that rally.
309
00:19:36,389 --> 00:19:37,649
Why would they want to do that?
310
00:19:37,860 --> 00:19:39,000
I don't know their banks.
311
00:19:39,000 --> 00:19:42,540
They do it all the time, but logically
over a period of time looking at
312
00:19:42,540 --> 00:19:45,659
it, you'll see that they kind of
put the brakes on a market rally
313
00:19:46,020 --> 00:19:47,550
by selling aggressively into it.
314
00:19:48,720 --> 00:19:51,300
And that caps the market as
you've seen here this week.
315
00:19:51,450 --> 00:19:54,240
So we had a blending of two
things, commercial shorts.
316
00:19:56,034 --> 00:19:59,875
Now, if you look at a revenue, commitment,
traders report, you're not going to see
317
00:19:59,875 --> 00:20:01,195
that you're going to see them net long.
318
00:20:01,915 --> 00:20:03,925
That's what screws everybody up.
319
00:20:04,284 --> 00:20:08,185
Even Larry Williams, because they're
looking at information because they're
320
00:20:08,185 --> 00:20:10,945
looking at price through cot data.
321
00:20:11,745 --> 00:20:13,784
From an archaic caveman approach.
322
00:20:14,205 --> 00:20:16,995
Now I'm not saying it can't be
used efficiently and effectively
323
00:20:17,415 --> 00:20:18,435
in certain conditions.
324
00:20:18,465 --> 00:20:20,865
Like it's traditionally taught
through Larry Williams and
325
00:20:20,865 --> 00:20:22,004
everybody else is used now.
326
00:20:22,335 --> 00:20:24,945
But if it was just that easy,
everybody would making money.
327
00:20:24,945 --> 00:20:25,245
Right.
328
00:20:25,725 --> 00:20:29,264
So why is it the commercials aren't
on the first of everyone's list
329
00:20:29,504 --> 00:20:33,314
because nobody knows how to use it,
but you're learning how to do it
330
00:20:33,314 --> 00:20:34,665
now because you're in the clinic.
331
00:20:34,845 --> 00:20:38,294
You're in the mentorship that
teaches you everything about smart.
332
00:20:39,540 --> 00:20:43,350
So, what we do is that
we use this graph okay.
333
00:20:43,350 --> 00:20:44,490
That you're going to learn about.
334
00:20:44,730 --> 00:20:49,140
And the commodity section of this
teachings, that's later on in a month.
335
00:20:49,170 --> 00:20:54,300
Uh, I think it's in June, but I'll
teach you how to use the hedging
336
00:20:54,300 --> 00:20:57,210
program and actually look for
seasonal and tenancies for when they
337
00:20:57,210 --> 00:20:58,740
would really be buying or selling.
338
00:20:59,760 --> 00:21:00,750
Certain times a year.
339
00:21:01,080 --> 00:21:03,480
And also they're seasonal tendencies
that have an interest, but open
340
00:21:03,480 --> 00:21:06,840
interest is not that important here
because we have two things blended
341
00:21:06,840 --> 00:21:10,440
together and you really only need two
things to the couple for smart money.
342
00:21:10,980 --> 00:21:12,570
You have the seasonal tendency.
343
00:21:12,990 --> 00:21:16,650
So in other words, there's a seasonal
influence that usually sees your dollar.
344
00:21:16,680 --> 00:21:17,880
And I don't know what it is.
345
00:21:17,940 --> 00:21:22,800
I don't need to know seasonally
historically, your dollar drops down
346
00:21:22,890 --> 00:21:25,530
in the second half of March going into.
347
00:21:26,534 --> 00:21:26,895
Okay.
348
00:21:27,044 --> 00:21:30,014
So we're looking for that seasonal
tendency to take place, not by
349
00:21:30,014 --> 00:21:33,014
itself, but we're looking for
technicals to support that idea.
350
00:21:33,225 --> 00:21:37,245
While we can see here, the commercials
were heavily net selling into that rally.
351
00:21:37,245 --> 00:21:41,595
We seen last week leading into
Monday's rally initially for this
352
00:21:41,595 --> 00:21:46,425
week on the Euro dollar, and then
it topped and tanked going lower.
353
00:21:49,264 --> 00:21:51,635
You can see right here that new hire.
354
00:21:53,125 --> 00:21:56,695
It's been met with heavy net
selling by the commercial traders.
355
00:21:58,665 --> 00:22:00,675
This is smart money shorting.
356
00:22:03,625 --> 00:22:06,504
So now how do we go in
and justify these ideas?
357
00:22:06,535 --> 00:22:10,764
Just because we have a chart that looks
like it indicates that commercials
358
00:22:10,764 --> 00:22:13,405
are selling and we look at a seasonal
tenant just because it seems tendencies
359
00:22:13,915 --> 00:22:15,264
are suggesting higher or lower price.
360
00:22:15,264 --> 00:22:17,545
It does not mean that
it's going to happen.
361
00:22:17,815 --> 00:22:19,885
There has to be something
lining up technically.
362
00:22:20,775 --> 00:22:23,805
To get in sync with the
markets and seasonal tendency.
363
00:22:24,405 --> 00:22:26,265
So it's not a seasonal
tendency to be all end.
364
00:22:26,265 --> 00:22:27,795
All it has to happen.
365
00:22:27,825 --> 00:22:33,645
No seasonal tendency illustrates a
probable condition or a probable outcome
366
00:22:33,645 --> 00:22:38,055
for the market direction, but without
technicals aligning with that in a market
367
00:22:38,055 --> 00:22:42,135
environment that supports that idea, that
seasonal tendency will get you in trouble.
368
00:22:43,575 --> 00:22:45,105
So we're looking at the dollar index.
369
00:22:46,320 --> 00:22:50,490
I'm going to frame out the market
conditions from a macro standpoint,
370
00:22:50,490 --> 00:22:53,669
and we're gonna look at the next
quarterly shift and we're gonna look
371
00:22:53,669 --> 00:22:55,889
at how the markets should be moving.
372
00:22:56,280 --> 00:22:58,620
And we're seeing here on a
weekly chart for the dollar
373
00:22:58,620 --> 00:23:01,590
index that we have an old high.
374
00:23:02,220 --> 00:23:08,010
And now this is where price is trading
down to it for this, uh, this week,
375
00:23:08,010 --> 00:23:12,870
we faded down into an old, weekly
high, which makes this a discount PDs.
376
00:23:16,159 --> 00:23:19,429
And we moved down into a daily
timeframe and we can actually see
377
00:23:19,429 --> 00:23:28,560
another level that is a old mitigation
block and it comes in at 98 99.
378
00:23:29,895 --> 00:23:32,985
Now, if you look at that level, you
would obviously suspect that it's
379
00:23:32,985 --> 00:23:35,054
going to go to what we round up.
380
00:23:35,084 --> 00:23:36,554
So it'd be 98, 95.
381
00:23:36,975 --> 00:23:41,264
You can go to 98 90 if you want to,
because it's the only way to pips,
382
00:23:41,264 --> 00:23:44,804
but generally the rules are round
up to the nearest five or zero.
383
00:23:49,115 --> 00:23:52,475
And then breaking it down into
a hourly chart dollar index.
384
00:23:52,475 --> 00:23:58,535
We can see that this is again,
illustrating the potential weekly
385
00:23:58,535 --> 00:24:03,665
range, and we're looking for price
to reach up from this discount level
386
00:24:03,665 --> 00:24:09,065
we saw on the weekly chart, we're
looking for premium PDF PD arrays.
387
00:24:09,215 --> 00:24:13,145
So we go through our market
looking at where liquidity pools.
388
00:24:13,950 --> 00:24:19,350
Bearish shorter blocks, fair value gaps,
mitigation blocks, breakers, old highs
389
00:24:19,740 --> 00:24:22,440
and old lows will act as resistance.
390
00:24:23,700 --> 00:24:27,990
As you can see here, we have a few
noted each one of these withdrawals
391
00:24:27,990 --> 00:24:32,490
on price, and you can see they are
all traded to, with no problem with
392
00:24:32,490 --> 00:24:33,720
the exception of the fair value gap.
393
00:24:33,960 --> 00:24:39,450
I suspect next week, maybe even on Sunday,
we'll probably see a gap up on Sundays
394
00:24:39,450 --> 00:24:42,330
trading that remains to be seen, but
it certainly looks like it wants to do.
395
00:24:43,245 --> 00:24:47,355
And if it doesn't get up, we'll look
forward to expand through something in
396
00:24:47,355 --> 00:24:49,065
the Monday and did a fair value gap.
397
00:24:52,745 --> 00:24:53,045
Okay.
398
00:24:53,075 --> 00:24:56,705
And getting a better
look at the dollar index.
399
00:24:56,705 --> 00:24:57,635
This is now a chart.
400
00:24:57,935 --> 00:25:02,645
What I have here is I have the
equilibrium price point identified.
401
00:25:03,215 --> 00:25:06,875
So anything above the equilibrium
price point is going to be a premium.
402
00:25:06,875 --> 00:25:08,645
Anything below it is
going to be a discount.
403
00:25:09,005 --> 00:25:10,055
So now what we're doing is this.
404
00:25:10,055 --> 00:25:11,855
We added the PD array.
405
00:25:13,230 --> 00:25:16,110
In the form of our premium
and discount ranges.
406
00:25:16,470 --> 00:25:20,670
So now we can see graphically
thinking like an algorithmic trader.
407
00:25:21,150 --> 00:25:22,980
So we're getting in
sync with the algorithm.
408
00:25:23,010 --> 00:25:26,670
If data is going to pull and draw a
price up to these levels, logically
409
00:25:27,000 --> 00:25:34,350
to allow the bank traders to put on
trades or manage their in-house book.
410
00:25:34,530 --> 00:25:38,340
So looking at what's going on in this
chart, we can see clearly that the
411
00:25:38,340 --> 00:25:40,620
market has been drawn back up to equally.
412
00:25:41,520 --> 00:25:43,439
So you're always going to look
for discount that at least
413
00:25:43,439 --> 00:25:44,760
try to pull to equilibrium.
414
00:25:45,240 --> 00:25:49,169
Then it has to determine if it wants
to go into premium or it could go
415
00:25:49,169 --> 00:25:50,730
back down deeper into a discount.
416
00:25:51,780 --> 00:25:55,110
You never know that for sure, but
you need to blend time and price
417
00:25:55,110 --> 00:25:57,720
with the Ellipta data ranges.
418
00:25:57,750 --> 00:26:02,280
Looking back over the last 20,
40, and 60 days, also adding
419
00:26:02,370 --> 00:26:05,280
the PDA matrix as we have here.
420
00:26:05,669 --> 00:26:10,080
And we have all of the PD res
noted that will be needed for this.
421
00:26:16,010 --> 00:26:19,100
Now we're going to look at the Euro
pound because we had to have intermarket
422
00:26:19,100 --> 00:26:20,780
analysis, support it as well.
423
00:26:20,960 --> 00:26:24,470
So we've seen the dollar
index poised to go higher.
424
00:26:24,830 --> 00:26:28,580
It's trading off a weekly discount PD
array, and we have all of the premium
425
00:26:29,420 --> 00:26:34,610
PD rays above us noted in the previous
chart that would be drawing price higher.
426
00:26:35,090 --> 00:26:40,680
So if we're looking for weak Euro dollar
prices, We need to see if the Euro
427
00:26:40,680 --> 00:26:42,600
pound would support that idea as well.
428
00:26:43,139 --> 00:26:47,580
And you can see, obviously the
European has tanked, um, and went
429
00:26:47,580 --> 00:26:53,820
down to a very clear logical bullish
order block on a four hour basis.
430
00:26:53,820 --> 00:26:57,420
A series of down candles sets the
tone for that bullish shorter block.
431
00:26:57,700 --> 00:27:00,330
That is a discount PDA Ray.
432
00:27:00,870 --> 00:27:05,190
It traded right down to it at
Friday's close, but all throughout
433
00:27:06,149 --> 00:27:07,590
the week, we saw the year of.
434
00:27:09,155 --> 00:27:12,635
Be aggressively sold off so that
it's going to be weak for Europe
435
00:27:12,675 --> 00:27:15,665
dollar and strong for pound dollar.
436
00:27:19,305 --> 00:27:19,515
Okay.
437
00:27:19,515 --> 00:27:24,015
So we're looking at the Euro
dollar now, and we can see here
438
00:27:24,015 --> 00:27:26,115
the Monday we opened up with a gap.
439
00:27:27,195 --> 00:27:29,955
Well, actually a Sunday, we opened
up with a gap and traded higher
440
00:27:29,955 --> 00:27:33,165
throughout Monday and we traded up into.
441
00:27:34,110 --> 00:27:36,840
Weekly bearish or block
for the Euro dollar.
442
00:27:36,840 --> 00:27:41,370
And I'll leave you to look at your weekly
bear shorter block on your own platform.
443
00:27:42,180 --> 00:27:44,460
But this is the only level that
was missing from this week's
444
00:27:44,460 --> 00:27:48,000
discussion, because I want to be
able to have some meat for this
445
00:27:48,000 --> 00:27:52,220
teaching, but a weekly Barrett shorter
block was traded into a Monday.
446
00:27:53,640 --> 00:27:56,820
And the question is, is how
far into the weekly order block
447
00:27:56,910 --> 00:28:00,330
would you expect it to trade into
Michael while we're going to that?
448
00:28:00,420 --> 00:28:05,610
And in the last slide for this
teaching, but we're going to assume
449
00:28:06,030 --> 00:28:10,770
that you have studied the weekly
templates that expect specific.
450
00:28:12,200 --> 00:28:16,400
Trading, uh, characteristics, uh, you
know, what days make a specific hire
451
00:28:16,400 --> 00:28:20,480
load of the week and how the markets
trade, you know, relative to those
452
00:28:20,630 --> 00:28:25,250
respective templates and in what
manipulation do we expect by the market
453
00:28:25,250 --> 00:28:27,320
makers with that specific template?
454
00:28:28,040 --> 00:28:32,930
Well, since I elected to use the bears
idea that your dollar is going to go lower
455
00:28:32,930 --> 00:28:34,670
because the dollar index was bullish.
456
00:28:35,090 --> 00:28:35,300
Okay.
457
00:28:35,300 --> 00:28:39,260
Or should have been bullish trading
off of its weekly discount PDM.
458
00:28:43,010 --> 00:28:46,370
Couple that with we have seasonal
tendency for your dollar decline.
459
00:28:47,000 --> 00:28:51,800
We had commercials supporting lower
prices with heavy selling into the rally.
460
00:28:53,120 --> 00:29:01,340
We have the condition for lower
expectation in pricing on your dollar.
461
00:29:02,090 --> 00:29:05,900
That means we're going to be
expecting either Monday, Tuesday,
462
00:29:06,050 --> 00:29:07,880
or Wednesday to be the highest.
463
00:29:09,045 --> 00:29:11,145
So you always obviously start
with the first of the week,
464
00:29:11,145 --> 00:29:12,525
which is going to be the Monday.
465
00:29:12,735 --> 00:29:13,005
Okay.
466
00:29:13,005 --> 00:29:16,785
So price opens up on Sunday
gaps up and it starts trading
467
00:29:16,785 --> 00:29:18,345
immediately right up on Monday.
468
00:29:18,975 --> 00:29:24,705
So right away, we have to assume that
Monday's going to be the high the week.
469
00:29:25,545 --> 00:29:28,965
So what we do is as we go through
the procedures of potential.
470
00:29:30,284 --> 00:29:32,055
Picking the high of the week.
471
00:29:32,475 --> 00:29:37,274
Now we don't try to go in here and in time
that weekly high, we don't try to do that.
472
00:29:37,284 --> 00:29:40,875
Now you can overtime do that
yourself, but initially you don't.
473
00:29:40,875 --> 00:29:43,305
You want to teach yourself
to trust these concepts.
474
00:29:43,754 --> 00:29:44,024
Okay?
475
00:29:44,024 --> 00:29:46,215
Because it can go up on
Tuesday and make a higher high.
476
00:29:46,635 --> 00:29:49,795
That's why you have to give
it a little bit of leeway.
477
00:29:49,795 --> 00:29:54,945
Now you can sell us a very small portion
on Monday, and then if Tuesday fails
478
00:29:54,945 --> 00:29:58,305
to make a higher high, at least you
have a small piece on the higher level.
479
00:29:59,085 --> 00:30:03,705
But if it does go higher on Tuesday
or Wednesday, at least you're not
480
00:30:03,705 --> 00:30:06,885
going to be out in a full position
underwater as it makes a higher high
481
00:30:07,185 --> 00:30:08,595
on those later days in the week.
482
00:30:11,765 --> 00:30:17,705
What we do is on the Monday, we
look for price to trade up and
483
00:30:17,705 --> 00:30:19,685
it have a retracement intraday.
484
00:30:20,675 --> 00:30:26,495
So you can see the London session had
a retracement and then an expanded.
485
00:30:27,510 --> 00:30:28,500
All through New York.
486
00:30:29,130 --> 00:30:33,600
What I did was I measured the swing
using the fib from the high formed in
487
00:30:33,600 --> 00:30:39,530
London, down to the retracement low
prior to the New York session rally.
488
00:30:39,980 --> 00:30:43,430
And what I did was I measured
that swing intraday, and it
489
00:30:43,430 --> 00:30:47,390
gave me the 1 0 9 0 9 level.
490
00:30:48,530 --> 00:30:52,550
So what I did was I used one pit below
that and call it one oh nine oh eight,
491
00:30:53,150 --> 00:30:54,530
because generally I'm usually one PIP.
492
00:30:55,695 --> 00:31:00,885
And this case, um, I was one PIP off
still one PIP short, as I thought
493
00:31:00,885 --> 00:31:02,685
I was making a compensation for it.
494
00:31:02,685 --> 00:31:06,315
But, uh, it actually went right
to the level of 1 0 9 0 9, at
495
00:31:06,315 --> 00:31:07,995
least on forks LTDs platform.
496
00:31:09,675 --> 00:31:14,775
So by doing that, what we ended up doing
is we can see a way of projecting the
497
00:31:14,775 --> 00:31:19,845
weekly high, using the intraday stuff
that we'll actually teach in April.
498
00:31:20,355 --> 00:31:22,335
Uh, and you'll be able to
combine a lot of other things
499
00:31:22,335 --> 00:31:24,405
with time of day and specific.
500
00:31:25,425 --> 00:31:30,315
Uh, measurements that I used to more
or less nailed down the power three
501
00:31:30,465 --> 00:31:33,225
or dare I say it weekly Judas swing.
502
00:31:33,765 --> 00:31:36,885
So the initial rally here we
saw on Monday was a false rally.
503
00:31:37,335 --> 00:31:38,745
All that was, was heavy selling.
504
00:31:38,775 --> 00:31:43,515
They engineered price higher built
in a premium so they can sell it to
505
00:31:43,515 --> 00:31:47,685
the smart or lower intelligent crowd.
506
00:31:48,315 --> 00:31:51,555
Obviously the lower intelligent
crowd, smart money sells it
507
00:31:51,795 --> 00:31:53,115
to lesser informed money.
508
00:31:53,115 --> 00:31:53,775
And that's what we saw on.
509
00:31:56,804 --> 00:32:01,304
So it takes us to the Euro dollar in
a four hour chart, and you can see
510
00:32:01,334 --> 00:32:04,094
the PD array and a discount zone.
511
00:32:04,455 --> 00:32:07,034
You can see that liquidity
void that we identified here
512
00:32:07,365 --> 00:32:09,044
and that one to six 50 level.
513
00:32:10,064 --> 00:32:14,294
So using the one at six 50 level as
our baseline drawing up from that
514
00:32:14,294 --> 00:32:18,554
point and our projected high, the
week one to 9 0 8, which is what
515
00:32:18,554 --> 00:32:20,925
I called, um, that's our range.
516
00:32:20,925 --> 00:32:21,885
And then we can divide that in half.
517
00:32:22,605 --> 00:32:26,205
Get an equilibrium price point
and having that, we can now have a
518
00:32:26,205 --> 00:32:28,695
premium and discount PDA rate matrix.
519
00:32:28,965 --> 00:32:34,695
Then you start breaking down your markets,
PD array for premium and discount.
520
00:32:35,355 --> 00:32:40,455
We know that we have a liquidity void
in the lower end of the discount range.
521
00:32:40,845 --> 00:32:42,105
So that's what we're aiming for as well.
522
00:32:42,105 --> 00:32:43,335
What we're, you're aiming for?
523
00:32:44,085 --> 00:32:50,655
Uh, we came out of a premium market at one
and 9 0 8 and as the market traded lower.
524
00:32:51,405 --> 00:33:00,825
Each one of the respective PDA res
gaps, uh, liquidity pools, um, old
525
00:33:00,825 --> 00:33:04,395
highs, the selling to, uh, bear
shorter blocks, all those things.
526
00:33:04,395 --> 00:33:07,785
As the markets slid lower, they
were all contributing factors.
527
00:33:07,815 --> 00:33:11,145
As we mentioned throughout the
analysis this week through tweets
528
00:33:11,145 --> 00:33:17,025
and in video production and on the
daily chart, indexes, blending, all
529
00:33:17,025 --> 00:33:20,475
of these things together, all of these
things that I talked conceptually.
530
00:33:21,390 --> 00:33:25,410
The way you get to the results that you
saw this week is you have to use them.
531
00:33:25,440 --> 00:33:26,670
You have to practice with them.
532
00:33:27,120 --> 00:33:30,360
There's not going to be a clear cut.
533
00:33:30,540 --> 00:33:31,290
This is how you do it.
534
00:33:31,350 --> 00:33:32,400
Every single time.
535
00:33:32,550 --> 00:33:35,640
There's going to be potential decisions
that you're going to have to make.
536
00:33:36,090 --> 00:33:38,130
You might think that it's going
to be the high that we call
537
00:33:38,130 --> 00:33:40,200
Monday and you sell short.
538
00:33:40,680 --> 00:33:44,490
And then Tuesday in London or New York,
it runs up there and blows that high out.
539
00:33:45,070 --> 00:33:48,900
Are you going to stick with the
idea and expect lower prices?
540
00:33:49,830 --> 00:33:53,400
Or are you going to be whipsawed
and thinking, okay, I was wrong.
541
00:33:53,400 --> 00:33:54,120
Then he goes along.
542
00:33:54,840 --> 00:33:57,210
That's going to be a demon
for you to wrestle with.
543
00:33:57,660 --> 00:34:01,200
So you have to come to a conclusion
on what you want to do for the week
544
00:34:01,290 --> 00:34:05,070
and come hell or high water, stick to
that until it no longer makes sense.
545
00:34:05,130 --> 00:34:07,110
And that happens mid week.
546
00:34:07,470 --> 00:34:12,060
And you learned in a previous lesson that
there's many times eight weekly reversal.
547
00:34:12,420 --> 00:34:15,150
So you'll always have a
potential to mess it up.
548
00:34:15,990 --> 00:34:17,310
This is what makes it difficult.
549
00:34:18,045 --> 00:34:19,214
But it's so easy to do.
550
00:34:20,415 --> 00:34:25,304
How's that for an oxymoron, the point
is, is in this teaching, we have a way
551
00:34:25,304 --> 00:34:30,554
of looking at price, blending concepts
together, using experience, obviously.
552
00:34:30,884 --> 00:34:31,214
Okay.
553
00:34:31,214 --> 00:34:34,694
But over time, seeing it study
it in hindsight, you didn't look
554
00:34:34,694 --> 00:34:39,435
at 10, 15, 20 years worth of
data and get to these outcomes.
555
00:34:39,614 --> 00:34:40,034
Okay.
556
00:34:40,065 --> 00:34:44,444
Through study and build
yourself a, a library mentally.
557
00:34:46,110 --> 00:34:48,540
Past experiences using the information.
558
00:34:48,570 --> 00:34:51,600
You don't need to have every little
thing down to an hourly chart.
559
00:34:51,630 --> 00:34:52,260
You don't need that.
560
00:34:52,560 --> 00:34:56,220
You can see the outcome
based on a daily chart.
561
00:34:56,250 --> 00:34:56,820
You can see it.
562
00:34:57,840 --> 00:35:04,350
So I'm going to counsel you to
use this as an example of how we
563
00:35:04,350 --> 00:35:09,510
can take the information blended
together and then come up with.
564
00:35:11,145 --> 00:35:16,635
Nearest thing to perfection, you're going
to ever see in market analysis, being
565
00:35:16,635 --> 00:35:20,895
one PIP off from the high, the weak and
only five pips off the low of the week.
566
00:35:21,495 --> 00:35:27,735
But in most platforms, 1 0 6 50 was
hit with real-time data, not demo.
567
00:35:28,485 --> 00:35:33,045
And the high that week was, you know, it
was called and lower the week was called.
568
00:35:33,045 --> 00:35:36,005
So I'll leave it up to
you to determine whether.
569
00:35:37,005 --> 00:35:44,055
This is something that leads you to
more proficiency as a trader, or does it
570
00:35:44,055 --> 00:35:45,885
create new barriers for your learning?
571
00:35:46,305 --> 00:35:49,755
I think that if you go through the
concepts and especially when you
572
00:35:49,755 --> 00:35:52,485
finish the mentorship, you want to
go back through all the lessons.
573
00:35:52,485 --> 00:35:55,905
Again, listen to all that boring
stuff I talked about in January,
574
00:35:56,275 --> 00:35:59,235
go back through all the lessons and
September, October, November, and
575
00:35:59,235 --> 00:36:00,885
December, and use all that information.
576
00:36:00,885 --> 00:36:04,515
I help pull all the free tutorials
together back then some of the.
577
00:36:05,625 --> 00:36:06,645
We're complaining about that.
578
00:36:06,654 --> 00:36:12,075
Now you're seeing the fruits of having
done that, and maybe you haven't
579
00:36:12,075 --> 00:36:16,065
watched the free tutorials more than
one time at the end of this mentorship.
580
00:36:16,095 --> 00:36:17,355
You want to do that all over again?
581
00:36:17,745 --> 00:36:17,984
Okay.
582
00:36:17,984 --> 00:36:21,705
So that way it kind of completes your
whole learning and by then you have
583
00:36:21,765 --> 00:36:25,395
everything you ever need to know, you'll
know procedurally what you need to do.
584
00:36:25,694 --> 00:36:26,555
And yes, it requires.
585
00:36:27,660 --> 00:36:30,000
It's going to require you to
think it's going to require you
586
00:36:30,000 --> 00:36:33,990
to come to the decision and it's
not going to be black and white.
587
00:36:34,260 --> 00:36:36,930
It's not going to be
this or that initially.
588
00:36:37,380 --> 00:36:41,130
But when we get to August, there's
a specific procedure that you
589
00:36:41,130 --> 00:36:42,780
go through from the top down.
590
00:36:43,290 --> 00:36:43,620
Okay.
591
00:36:43,620 --> 00:36:47,250
And it leads you to specific
decision points that tells you.
592
00:36:47,250 --> 00:36:47,610
Okay.
593
00:36:47,910 --> 00:36:51,660
Right now, I think this is what I
should be doing, regardless of what
594
00:36:52,440 --> 00:36:53,760
discipline a trader you're going to be.
595
00:36:53,940 --> 00:36:56,640
It starts from the higher
timeframe position, traders, mind.
596
00:36:57,660 --> 00:37:03,000
As you would do with one shot, one
kill, and you reduce it down and you
597
00:37:03,000 --> 00:37:06,870
reduce it down to swing trading and you
reduced it down to short-term trading
598
00:37:06,870 --> 00:37:08,790
and you reduce it down to day trading.
599
00:37:09,000 --> 00:37:12,090
So you can get that real low
risk, real tight precision.
600
00:37:12,690 --> 00:37:15,450
And if you really want to get insane
about it, you can use the scalping
601
00:37:15,450 --> 00:37:21,030
ideas and get insane with 10 PIP
stops, but it's not necessary.
602
00:37:21,030 --> 00:37:21,810
You don't need that.
603
00:37:22,170 --> 00:37:24,210
But the point is it's
there it's made available.
604
00:37:25,660 --> 00:37:28,300
So at least it's been insightful
to you and it helps fill in the
605
00:37:28,300 --> 00:37:31,450
gaps with the short term trading
that I taught my free tutorials.
606
00:37:31,720 --> 00:37:35,530
And it gives you all the
elements to how I trade ICT.
607
00:37:35,530 --> 00:37:36,460
One shot, one kill.
53514
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