All language subtitles for Lesson 7 - Intraweek Market Reversals _ Overlapping Models

Welcome to lesson seven, folks
of the short-term trading

module for ICT mentorship.

This teaching is dealing with intro
week reversals and overlapping model.

Okay.

Obviously in every one of our
teachings, we have to remind you that

we're working with time and price.

And one of the questions I want to lead
in this teaching with is obviously I've

shared with you specific weekly profiles.

And when I was teaching.

I taught that there were market reversal
profiles intraweek and inter day.

And we'll talk about intraday when
we get into day trading, but for

short term trading there's intro week
market reversal profiles that for the

uninitiated or the uninformed, uh, there
are many times caught off guard by the

likelihood of a potential reversal.

Or we want in my career, I had these
events as well, and it played me.

It was one of those things that
just kept coming up all the time.

I'd have a trade, it was profitable,
it would be working for me and then

something would happen mid-week
and it would completely reverse.

And I would hope and pray that it
would get back in sync with what I was

expecting to see as a long-term trade.

And.

It didn't happen.

It came back and rolled right up
against me and either stopped me

out or pressured me so much that
I had to get out of the trade.

If you've never experienced
this, you will eventually.

So it's important that we cover it now.

Uh, one of the hardest things for
me to teach when it comes to market

profiling is the marker versatile
profile because I have to teach.

Not just one element of trading or
discipline and trading, but I have

to teach a multiple approach, either
swing trading, short-term trading

day trading, or position trading
between trading and short-term

trading something to that effect.

So it can't be understood as
efficiently as it would be.

Is if.

Student or the trader with well-versed
in more than one trading discipline.

So when I was teaching on the forums years
ago and I was sharing my information on

YouTube and on my own website, uh, the
problem I was well aware of, but I wanted

to kind of like lay some foundations.

So the folks that were really involved in
learning and in studying, they could have.

Not get to the, what I'm going to share
here, but you come to the conclusion

that there are certain guidelines and
approaches to leads to a potential

inter weak market reversal profile.

And we're going to cover the components
that leads to that in this teaching here.

Okay.

In our example, again, we're going to be
using the British pound and this time.

By having RPDA raise again.

I want you to focus on
this low right here.

This actually happened the week of this
recording and it created what we're going

to be talking about in this teaching.

I've kind of waiting for this
week to close anyway, so I can

actually use this as an example.

But if you go through the notes in
this teaching, you'll be able to

go back over historical data and
see where they manifest themselves.

And the criteria I teach in this lesson,
you'll see that a just like script, it

follows it almost to the, to the letter.

So what we're looking at is the
low that was formed on cable

and the intro week reversal.

And what led up to that and what are
the characteristics that generally

are a part of this phenomenal.

First we have to identify the fact
that the market was in a premium

market, classified my, the large
tree and range that we talked

about and outlined in lesson four.

So we're in the premium
range of the PDA matrix.

And perhaps you saw that the market was
trading up into the weekly rejection block

or traded up into an old bear shorter
block on the daily charts of therefore

we could potentially see the market trade
lower as we were anticipating potentially

seeing this week, but it trades down into
a lower level PD array in the discount.

It doesn't do it over the
course of the entire week.

No, no, it does this in a matter of 24.

So as the market, in this case,
the cable British pound USD trades

over 200 points in a period of 24
hours, the market reaches for a level

with speed for a particular reason.

And when you look at the daily chart here,
we've outlined the PDRs and you can see

that there's a daily bullish or block main
threshold and price reaches right into.

On Wednesday of the
week of this recording.

When we see a fast market, we have
to immediately assume that they're

reaching for a level of institutional
order flow that is highly critical

for efficiency on the interbank level.

Now that may be in the form of commerce
globally, or it could be in the form

of a repricing at the central bank.

Either one of those could
happen rather quickly.

And while it took some time to gradually
drift down over the 24 hour time

period for that whole entire range
to form between Tuesday going into

Wednesday's low, the idea is you're
going to anticipate at the beginning

of the week, a certain outcome.

And it's prudent that you stick to that.

Okay.

Because over the course of a career,
you're going to get caught in a

reversal like this once in a while.

Um, it's not going to plague your
career, obviously after learning that

what's being taught in this lesson, but
you'll also have a checklist on things

that may lead to that type of scenario.

And if you go back over to the chart
index and look at some of the examples

we were talking about, as it relates to
the cable, There were telltale signs.

And I gave you a little marker
telling you that there was a potential

area of bounce likely in this pair.

What led me to that other things that
I'm going to teach you in this lesson?

Because I understand multiple
dimensions of trading, whether it

be position trading, short-term
trading, swing trading, day,

trading, scalping, all that business.

I am versed in understanding
and reading price.

Universally.

It's not one type of timeframe to me.

That makes sense.

It's all the timeframes on that.

A blend them together.

That part comes with experience.

And after a measurable growth in your
experience and working within different

disciplines of trading, this is the
reason why I tell you, regardless of

whatever you think you want to be at
the beginning of the mentorship, it's

going to graduate into other things.

But I'm forcing you across all of them.

If you're willing to submit to
all of them and stay with the

mentorship again, it's not a plug.

You decide whether you're staying here
or not, but by having a well-versed

approach and understanding across all
the disciplines, you inherently have a

advantage over those individuals that just
stick to just one format or discipline.

I'm a scalper.

I'm only going to worry about scalping.

Okay.

Well then you're not going to be that
good at scalping because you have a

limited myopic view on price action.

So having a well rounded approach to
price action w multiple timeframes,

different disciplines, you will by
default be a better trader at whatever

discipline you focus on as a career.

So we're going to look
at this little range.

That's not so much of a little range,
but we're gonna look at the move in this

particular decline down into the daily
bullish order block mean threshold.

And what was the catalyst
that led to that reversal?

First thing you want to notice is that
price is unwilling to leave the premium.

So we're in the upper portion
of the larger trading range

defined by and less than.

So while we saw initially in the
beginning of the week, the market

wants to decline and it was doing
it aggressively and speedily.

If you will, by seeing that we
could have, if we didn't understand

PDR Ray matrix discount carets,
we could have easily expected this

market to keep on trading lower.

Maybe even going down to the fair
value gap, or if you're a classic

support resistance person, maybe just
that old low made back in January.

Myopic.

I know, but nonetheless, this view leads
to what many times breaks accounts.

It ends careers.

It dashes the hopes of would be
traders because they aren't informed.

You're learning the mechanics
of how price is delivered.

We're going to look at this range here
and define it in a context that would

otherwise not be available to you.

So we're gonna look at the
first two days of the week.

Going into Wednesday's low.

And I want you to understand just
how much that price range is.

It's extraordinary.

It look at the length of that
candle for the most part.

It's many times larger than the general
average of all the candles here.

Now, obviously there's a few of them
here that are larger, but in general

terms, the candles slightly before.

To the right of it, that large
down candle on Tuesday, it's

pretty much a dominating candle.

So it was speed at which it moved in one
trading day to get down to a specific

institutional order flow reference point.

We're gonna take a closer look at
this, and we're gonna look at a four

hour chart and we're gonna refine it
and give it a little bit more detail.

The yellow areas that same range defined
across the entire week from one these

rally Tuesdays decline and the Wednesday.

And price returns to a discount
PD, re reversing intraweek.

Now we can see it clearly here.

It's hindsight.

It's perfect.

It's 2020.

We can see it, but we have to go
into it with the details because

that's, what's going to help you see
what it looks like going forward.

Why did we anticipate a bounce there?

Why did I give it to you and
your chart index this week?

The things I'm going to show you here.

I want you to take a look at the low.

And it, it forms on Wednesdays market
low and it's trading at a daily

bullish order block means threshold

after the bounce at the daily
bullish order block, main

threshold Ellipta draws price.

Into a four hour bearish
order block, premium PD array.

Notice the efficiency, how
trades right up into it.

It's exactly right to the logical
area where price should reach for,

if it's going to a premium market,
there's very little movement below the

level that's identified as the daily
bullish order block, main threshold.

And it trades right to before our
bare shoulder block, you can't get any

better than that in terms of prices.

Clearly seen, but the four
hour block traded here.

So now we're going to take it and refine
it down to an hourly chart and give

it a lot more flesh on the skeleton.

We're we're outlining as
a market reversal proof.

I want you to note the large
decline from the first of the week.

Now, obviously I'm beating this
in your head because this is the

classic telltale sign that you have
a potential market reversal profile.

Think about it every time that the
market quickly starts trading on Monday

or Tuesday, aggressively and speedily,
that's usually a telltale sign.

It's in a hurry to make.

Weekly range or it's going to go to
an institutional order flow reference

point that could potentially cause
it to reverse and go the other way.

So now we can see Monday starts as
a potential high, the week profile

rallies, initially rate from Sunday.

Declined a little bit.

And then we have another rally into
the London session on Tuesday, and it

aggressively trades, lower trading rate
into the change over from Tuesday into

Wednesday, creating the low of the week.

And then we have an
aggressive move off that low

this right here.

This price declined the speed at which
and the magnitude of which it moves.

Is that telltale sign.

That's the characteristic
that leads you to, okay.

We're really moving quickly and
we're covering a lot of ground

in the beginning of the week.

Whenever that happens, you immediately
start looking for higher timeframe PD

erase that may cause, or be a catalyst
for inter weak market reversal profile.

If you do not do this and you fall into
the, the, the thought process that okay.

Um, it's moving quickly.

It's moving fast.

Therefore I'm going to make a lot more
money in double time and it's probably

going to have an equal leg lower
later in the week in the same mood.

No, don't think like that.

Okay.

Don't think like that at all, speed
in price is indicative of then

getting to a valuation point when
prices in a hurry to get somewhere.

Think about when central banks report.

For instance, when they do
interest rate announcements.

Okay.

There's very little time from where right
before the announcement, then the news

comes out and then the rate changes that
is not attributed to buying and selling.

Okay.

That's a repricing based at the central
bank level, but it's a sudden thing.

And that's why there's such
a wide disparity between

where price is at one moment.

And then all of a sudden it's
somewhere else that repricing is a.

Response to a central bank intervention
or interest rate announcement when there

is no central bank involvement and prices
just aggressively and speedily moving.

Okay.

That's based on evaluation
through speculation.

So they're taking the market down through
IPTA in this case down to a daily premium.

To discount range.

In other words, it's moving
away from a premium, down into

a discount, PDA Ray, but we're
still in the larger premium range.

So if you were just looking at price
and you understood overbought, we

were sold, this would look like it's
probably going to keep going lower.

It's going to continue going lower.

But no, the only thing it's doing
is it's showing a willingness

to get back down to a discount.

Okay.

Think about how I showed you in
the previous lesson, how you can

grade modular, smaller ranges in
terms of premium and discount res.

That same thing is being used here,
but just in scope of keeping it in

the upper portion of the premium
range on that daily chart that

we broken down in less than five.

So while we're still overall in a
premium market, longer term, Short

term, it can continuously move
higher and keep making higher highs.

Think about it.

Like when you trade with bearish
divergence, just because of the momentum

indicators, diverging, variously, he
doesn't mean price is going to say,

okay, well, I'm going to turn around
and go the other way because of the

stochastics or Mac D it continuously
can, can keep moving higher up.

That same element takes place when
we're looking at just price action.

So while we are in a premium
market, the market is showing a

willingness to not here's the key,
not move out of a premium market.

No worries.

Why didn't this continuously go
lower Wednesday and the Thursday

going into the discount market
because it needs to go higher.

It wants to go higher.

So if it's not going to go lower and
it wants to go higher, where do we

focus with focus on premium PDRs?

Now Wednesday breaks a short-term.

And then we start seeing evidences
of institutional sponsorship

on every bullish order block.

Every order blocked at forums with
the down candle or a series of down

candles, we extend that out in time
and you can see them capitalizing each

one of them with new long positions.

And we're seeing a positive
confirmation because prices

quickly surging away from that.

Every instance, we see new evidences
of institutional sponsorship and up

into a fair value gap premium RA.

Now intro week reversals will many
times look to return to the previous

balance, the price range, or exceeded.

Now, what does that mean?

Think about the market
maker, sell and buy pro.

Okay.

There were a market maker
sell and buy models.

In this case here, this could end up
becoming a market maker by profile.

We had the consolidation noon as in
this example, as a price balanced

range and whereas the prices in a small
little range, and then it leaves it

on Tuesday, aggressively sells off.

We have the smart money reversal
in the Tuesdays, Wednesday.

Then we have a low risk by on Thursday,
and then we have a continuation

or re accumulation on Friday, but
price has traded up into that price

balance, rains all over again.

It's right back up at it again.

So when we see that this could be the
end of the move, it can be, this could,

all that's necessary is for them to trade
right back up to that price bounced range.

We always have to have the likelihood
on our mind that price may exceed it

and go past it, which is what the market
maker by profile really aims to do it.

Take out the liquidity above and Ohio.

In this case, we have a lower high
formed on Tuesday than Monday.

So it may not necessarily need
to go above it, but personally,

between you and I, I think it will.

So here we have a British
pound naked one hour chart.

Now, if we were just given this example
here in price action, maybe some of

us would be able to see that low down
here and see some evidence to support

why it should go up and then maybe not.

Whenever we have a storyline or a
potential outcome in the marketplace.

In our mind that we, we formed
an opinion, we have a plan that

we're going to try to execute on.

It's important that we were mindful
that the setup may not pan out.

For instance, at the beginning
of this week, you may have seen

this as a potential high that week
and you expected to see Friday's

close, be lower than Wednesday.

Guess what?

Just like I knew sometimes
you're going to get it wrong.

The evidences of the fact that
the market's moving quickly at the

beginning of the week, this is Monday
and Tuesday, Monday and Tuesday.

Okay.

Or one of the two, if we see
sudden quick movement and price and

magnitude, here's the keyword here.

It's got to cover a lot of distance
what's average, uh, uh, average

distance in the last few days.

If it exceeds.

A lot, wherever the average daily
range is for the last five days.

If it gets well above it, Chances
are you're probably going to

see a market reversal profile.

It doesn't mean it always will happen.

It just means that start considering it.

Okay.

I mentioned in the commentary through
this week that we were probably going to

see the weekly range form in one day, and
we did, we pretty much ended up seeing

that with the exception of the small
little tail noted here on Mondays high.

Uh, the whole range for cable
was really formed on Tuesday.

That's indicative it's characteristic
of a market reversal profile intro week.

So the main thing I want you to
understand in this lesson is that

at the beginning of the week, we
anticipate the higher load form period.

That's, that's a given that that's,
that's the nature of ICT concepts,

because as humans, we're generally
good starters and then week starts with

the new hopes and aspirations to make.

In exchange and commerce,
but opinions can change.

Directives can be changed.

And the central bank and the
banks themselves, they can make

policy changes or fundamentals may
change that we're not aware of.

And you actually heard that, right?

I don't know what they are that causes
price to change at the central bank level.

I don't need to know it.

I can see the evidences of it in price.

When we move forward and going through
price action study, it's important that

you understand that knowing the higher
timeframe PD, rays will aid in failures.

I mean, when you have a trade that
doesn't seem like it's working

out for you, even though you're
profitable, chances are, it's probably

better for you to get out of it.

And look for another entry point.

If it doesn't give you a strong entry
point, chances are it's probably

going to be a market reversal.

Wednesday or Thursday reversals
generally form every month.

So no matter what pair you're looking
at, there's generally some kind of

a reversal of sorts that can form.

So by going over examples and looking at.

You'll see many more examples.

And just this one here and
everything we're showing is reversed.

When there's an inter weak
market reversal profile that

goes higher and then sells off.

So it's a generic concept.

It's very simple things
that leads up to it.

The classic telltale signs are
the magnitude at which the price

moves on Monday and Tuesday.

Okay.

So it's only two days.

You have to focus on how much
is price moving on Monday.

And.

So if you're seeing a lot of movement in
your face, And it's really covering a lot

of distance and it's doing it quickly,
many instances, you're going to see it

like this week really built in on one
trading day when it does that consider

the higher timeframe PD erase because
it's probably going down to evaluation

or a higher level of valuation point.

And then it's going to have a lot of
sponsorship come in and that those

flows are going to turn the market.

It's going to turn it the other way.

And if you fight that it can beat you up.

Dare I say it.

Break your account.

Now.

Consider swing trading
model overlap possibilities.

And we've talked about the likelihood
of using short-term trading

concepts and one shot, one kill.

And now we're going to blend or overlap
trading models to helps you kind of

formulate a better understanding.

Here.

We have that same area price.

And what I've done was I've
outlined it in terms of a

premium and discount PDA matrix.

So we can see in the green
area, that's the discount area.

And I have it graded as well with
four grades or four quadrants.

And the premium area is posted
and it's divided as well.

Notice that on a daily.

We have a daily bullish order block.

It's trading down into that.

So if we look at this model
here, think about what I taught

you in the swing trading model.

This is a swing trade entry.

This is exactly what you
look for for a swing trade.

Now, if you're not a swing trader,
if you don't think like a swing

trader, then you're not going to
see this as a swing trade entry.

You're not going to see it as.

Um, set up that could many
times pay out much more than

what a one shot one kill would.

If you're only focusing on I'm
going to be a short-term trader,

I'm going to only be a day trader
I'm only going to be a scalper.

These types of setups will evade you.

And by evading you, it's also
going to become a pitfall for you.

You're not going to know when there's
going to be these potential reversals.

They'll get, you'll get cut off.

So now we're going to take that same
element, everything we saw on the

daily chart that just applied, we're
just re viewing it from a one hour

standpoint so we can see the intraday
price action on a day-by-day division.

You can see here reversals
ensure week they occur.

Here's the secret they
occur in overlapping models.

Every market reversal that happens
into your week will be a overlapping

of two types of trading disciplines.

They'll be at odds with one another.

Here's the rub, the higher timeframe,
discipline will always win.

That's why we have to focus on
monthly, weekly, and daily PD erase.

That's why I beat it in your head.

They are the most important ones.

Anything less than that?

Four hour that's that as low as
you want to go, anything less than.

It's all day trading stuff.

And if you're day trading, things
are not in alignment with the

higher timeframe daily, weekly, or
monthly, no less than a four hour.

You're really not trading
high probability setups.

So it's important that you understand
that the reversals are not always

going to surprise you now because you
have some characteristics to look for.

And now by having a opinion of not just
one shot, one kill short-term trading or.

Swing trading, but you have
position trading as well.

And by blending all those elements
together, it gives you a greater

understanding about price action.

And now because you have these
characteristics in each discipline

understood when you see a opposing
view, if a swing traders approach

saying it's a buy, when you're
looking at it, one shot, one kill.

So.

Um, chances are your weekly range
phenomenon that you're trying to

trade is going to have opposition
to the degree where it will cause a

reversal as it's being shown here.

So daily swing model overlap
example shown here will hopefully

ground you in your understanding
about how intro week mark reversals

occur takeaways from this lesson.

Again, are the speed at which
price moves or money into.

The magnitude at which it moves.

There's your number one
characteristic telltale sign.

You're probably going to see a market
reversal into your week and look for

overlapping opposing trading models.

If one is suggesting a buyer on
a higher timeframe, while on a

lower timeframe, it's looking
like it may continue going lower.

The arm wrestling match is always going
to be won by the higher timeframe.

So hopefully you've learned
something that brings you closer to.

A greater understanding of price
action and ensure week reversals and

blending and overlapping trading mine.