All language subtitles for Lesson 5_ high probability swing trade setups in bear market EN

Welcome back folks.

This is less than 5th of February.

2017 is ITT mentorship,
teaching swing trading.

And this discussion is going to
be on high probability swing,

trade setups in bear markets.

Okay.

Like we did with the bull
setups, the PDA Ray matrix.

Again, it's included here
just as a reference point.

I don't know what time you're going to
refer back to this video again, that way

it saves you some time going back and
forth, looking for it, really dealing with

the premium side of the PDA rate matrix.

Okay.

The bearish monthly,
weekly, daily sequential.

Okay.

On a monthly chart, premium
array has shown to induce

selling as evidenced by price.

Moving lower.

When a weekly chart, we see premium
Murrays showing the ability to induce

selling and it's evidenced by price.

Moving lower on a daily chart.

A premium array has shown to
induce selling as evidenced

by price moving lower.

So all three timeframes, monthly, weekly,
and daily, all showing a premium array,

driving price, lower or resisting.

In all timeframes, all candles
provide new resistance to price

and little to no strength is seen.

Okay.

When all three timeframes are bearish,

you're going to be looking to sell
all daily bearish premium arrays.

And they're going to be in
the form of an old high or.

Hey rejection block above the candles
bodies, a bearish order block, the fair

value gap, illiquidity void, bearish,
Spreaker, and any bears mitigation block.

And you're gonna sell every
four hour bearish premium array.

When the monthly is bearish, the weekly
is bearish and the daily is bullish.

That means there's a correction
it's underway on the daily chart.

You're going to sell daily
bearish premium arrays at or

nested in weekly premium erase.

You're going to sell for our bearish
premium arrays at daily and or

nested in weekly bearish premium.

You're going to avoid
selling daily premium arrays.

If the daily has just posted a lower,
low and rejected, this is going

to be seen as a bullish breaker,

the monthly being bearish,
the weekly being bullish and

the daily being bullshit.

You're going to sell all daily
bearish premium res at or nested

in the monthly premium or.

Going to sell for our bearish premium
arrays at weekly and or nested in

monthly bearish premium arrays.

And you wanna avoid selling
weekly premium arrays.

If weekly has just posted a lower, low and
rejected, this will be seen as a bullish.

Okay.

This example for high probability
cell sense, we're going to be

looking at the monthly, weekly,
daily sequential with the Eurodollar.

Can we have your dollar
here on the monthly chart?

And we have 18 months worth of data
highlighted in here and inside the

18 months worth of data, we're going
to be looking at all the premium.

PD race, and we're going to draw
out our up candles with the lows.

So every up candle

okay.

Has it's low?

No.

And we're also going to note all of
the opens on the up candles and we're

going to drop down into a weekly chart.

Okay.

So now we have our monthly levels
down on our weekly chart of the

year, a dollar, and I'm going to.

Refine it to showing the weekly levels.

Okay.

So we have our weekly levels here
with the low on all the up candles,

delineating a bearish order block.

Take notice also that we're using
the red trend lines to delineate

the weekly verus shorter blocks.

And we're also going to now
delineate the mean threshold.

Of all of the Bush candles prior to a
down move, which is a bearish order block

case.

And now we have all the mean
thresholds of perish order blocks.

Someone's here overlapping with
a monthly order blocks, open.

Mean threshold of Porsche or blocking
here, but combining both the bodies

and we have the open on this candle
here, delineated, and we're going to

use one more reference point for this.

Right there to my name to range from this
high to this low, the body's only not

the Wix and means threshold right there.

Okay.

So we're going to take our levels now
and move them down into a daily time.

Okay.

So now we have our daily chart indicating
our monthly and weekly PDRs in the

form of bearish quarter blocks and
the openings of those bullish candles.

You see the market did in fact
trade up into an opening of a

monthly bearish order block to.

Heavy lines are and the blue lines
that are thin, they're going to be the

monthly Bach on a monthly basis, the low.

So just keep in mind at the heavier
blue lines there, the openings on the

parish order blocks on a monthly basis.

So the price trades up close
in this little gap here.

Also gives a deep retracement.

So in terms of the range between
this high and this low, with this

high B in the premium or the discount
range, clearly it's in the premium

range and price also trades to

a weekly order block.

It's buried.

Price hits it perfectly and
trades lower price trades up into

a weekly order block as well.

Here sells off

price trades lower and comes all the
way back up to a weekly order block.

Pediatric.

Comes back and retraces and rallies.

One more time.

Now notice it's trading through or
deeper into a monthly bullish candle,

which is a bearish order block.

So it's trading up into, and it's also
overlaying inside of here with a weekly

bear, shorter blocks, mean threshold.

So all the dash lines that are
red, that's the mean threshold

of a weekly bearish order.

It's hard to see it in here, but it's
in there overlapping with the opening on

a monthly bare shoulder block as well.

Price trades up into it
sells off, comes back.

One more time, hits that
level again, trades off.

One more time comes back up trades into
a previous weekly order block level.

Just extended out in time.

Let me do that now.

So you can see it for clarity.

Okay, perfect.

Delivery of price, price trades down.

One more time hits this weekly order block
level as well, perfectly trades down.

No weekly order block level on here,
trades through it opens right up

that level, expands away from it
and aggressively moves towards this

old low trades through it comes
right back and hits this little.

Remember a PD array can be an old, low

up to a now a daily bears or
block, which is to last up

candle rate for the down move.

So we have a new level we can apply.

Okay.

So we have a daily bearish
order block right here.

Price hits it.

Trades away, comes back up.

Notice this rally up in here
to access resistance, trade.

It seeks every time price moves
lower, it's seeking a discount PD IRA.

In other words, anything that will be
published like a bull shorter block,

eight liquidity void or gap below price, a
rejection block below body to the candles

and old low, all those ideas that would be
viewed as a discount or a buying scenario.

That's what price will be looking
to seek to find as a downside

objective, and eventually.

Uh, price makes a low in,
starts to move higher.

We're not talking about trend
reversals in this discussion.

So we're going to just delineate
this marker here, just for

the sake of discussion.

We'll just say you took another
opportunity to go short here and it

stops you to, so that way there's no
argument about being cherry picking.

Do we have all of our levels from
the monthly, weekly, and daily?

Daily timeframe, monthly and weekly
levels transpose to the daily.

So our executable
timeframe is the four hour.

So what we do is we look for all these
levels to be moved to our four hour chart.

Okay.

So we have our four hour chart
here, the Euro dollar, and this

was the highest of all the peaks
before it started trading lower.

Uh, we have a big range between this high.

In this low, and we're going
to take a look at that in

terms of our, our low or high.

And we are in a premium
area here above equilibrium.

So we are in a selling
side of the marketplace.

Also note that it's also occurring Eddie
mitigation block, a down candle rate,

grownup move that were below we trade
back up to remove our Fibonacci expansion.

Okay.

So we can have.

Horizontal line added

at this candle's high and it takes
you right to that level here.

Notice there's no down candle here.

It's all just ranges.

It's this extreme range for the void,
but we have one little down candle

right here, right before that move.

So price trades through that
comes back to it as a mitigation.

There was one little pass in here.

What he did try to get some of
the longs off the date would have

had here that would be underwater
before it took off and went lower.

This was their opportunity to
unload those longs that were used

to drive price up to these levels.

And they mitigated those lungs here.

So you can see that, uh,
that level is indicated here.

Okay.

So we've changed this to a short
little line in here to indicate.

A four hour mitigation block
start looking at all the up

candles prior to the down moves.

I'm going to zoom in.

Okay.

So we have these last two up
candles in here that could be a

potential bare shoulder block.

We had this last up candle here that
hits that same level with left back here.

That becomes a potential
bears order block.

Okay.

And this one here becomes a
potential Berrett-Koehler block.

All these candles in here.

They're up moves going into this
decline bare shoulder blade.

Okay.

We have a pair shorter block there.

Bare shoulder block here.

You see that would have been at a loss.

If it was executed on.

Okay.

So we have a bearish we're block here.

All three of these candles
together is one consecutive

candle up break for the down move.

That's a potential bearish
order block trades up into it.

Also trades into this little one here,
but I'm not going to have that in

here just to keep the charts clean.

Tim, you have 1, 2, 3 candles trading
up for the down move central bearish

quarter block trades into it here.

This isn't over.

Right here, this candle right there.

That last one.

So when price trades away from it, this
right here could have been traded as a

bear shorter block, and it would have
been a losing trade, their price trades

all way back up into an area at which
here becomes a bear shorter block.

Right there gives you a little bit
of mood and eventually comes back.

That would have been a stop out.

And we have this area
here, all practical high

there,

price trades to it.

Here we are.

Shorter book starts to sell off.

We have another
opportunity presented here.

Okay.

Last up candle, right?

For them move.

Didn't quite get to it.

There.

We have a bearish order block right here.

It's it sells off a little bit.

Trade down into a monthly.

Tracy one more time out to it.

Trades back down to the monthly level.

Again, we're in a range
bound consolidation.

So you have to look outside of the
range for where the stops would be.

That's back here and below here.

So in price trades above
it, like I have an old high

we'll add that as a horizontal line here.

And we'll change it to a black line
just to keep things distinct price

trades above the old high memory.

That's a, that's a premium PD array,
an old high false break above it.

Sell off

price trades down.

We have a potential bears order blocking.

Could be shorted at okay.

And probably sells off.

We have a candle right
before the down move in here.

Great.

There that's a potential bare
shoulder block right there.

And then we have another up
candle rate for this down.

Move this, move away from this rail here.

That could be a potential
selling opportunities.

Okay here

we have one more in here.

These last two candles rate
before down move pair, shorter

block, sell it back in here.

We have a fair value
gap rate between here.

This is a potential selling
opportunity right there.

It's up in that area.

We can sell it and we have another,
they are shorter block right here.

And then Christ tracing all
kinds of low starts coming in.

Uh, we could look for a
selling opportunity at this

level here, right there.

And you could be selling short
here, and this would be a stop-out.

So you can see there's a lot of potential
entries that were profitable, but there

are a few that you could have taken it.

Would've stopped you out and
resulted in a losing trade or

focusing only on the sell side.

So when we get up into this area
here, we're up into a higher level

premium price hits an old area of.

Monthly and weekly PD res.

Okay.

We have a breaker in here, two
down candles, right before it

takes out old highs price trades.

Back up into that breaker here
spends a little bit of time on

a four hour before it expands.

It goes lower.

And then we have our one.

Candles up for down
mood, too tiny of a body.

And it's also encapsulated.

And inside this last up candle, now
we're just a little green candles.

Bodies is basically it's this
it's inside of this up candle.

So we don't look at that
as a bullish order block.

We used the big beef, your body
candle, and that would be seen here.

Okay.

Price trades up into
a bare shoulder block.

And also we're seeing the weekly
levels coming to fruition in here.

Price trades down to a monthly level.

Look at the consolidation around
that monthly level, and then

subsequent weekly level, multiple
little bear should order box in here.

I'll let you study that on your own.

And we have another bare
shoulder block in here.

There, here.

We have another pair of
shorter block here, but we can

also use this last one here.

That's the real reference
point right there.

The last big candle before the
up mood starts to come down.

Here's your reference point there?

And we have one more

here that could have been used as
a short that could have eventually

led to a losing trade right there.

And we have the market trading at an
old, low, as a PDA on a premium basis,

old, low here trades to it there.

And we get back up into the
weekly and above a monthly PD RA.

Less up Candler referred down,
mood hits it trades into a bear,

shorter block, their trades lower.

And again, these are a swing trade
that could be two weeks to one

month, but you have to take some
profits at a logical area as well.

So you have equal lows
here on a four hour basis.

So shorting from this level here, testing.

An idea here for a moment.

Let's say for instance,
you were shorting here

to get below these lows over here.

That's 245 pips just to get
below these lows over here.

And it moved a range of 289 pips.

That's basically what you're
looking at here, that white

shaded area, that's the setup.

And.

The move finishes on February 16th,
2012 and begins on February 13th.

So it's a three-day trade, not
quite a swing trade, but it did

pay out a pretty good pay out.

This didn't fit the time criteria.

And then we have the market trading
back up into a monthly order block.

And becomes a weekly
order walk level as well.

And later time, um, you see
the sensitivity there's levels

again, over here, weekly levels,
weekly levels in here as well.

Trades back up into a bare
shorter block in here,

sells off, spends a lot of
time at a monthly level and

a subsequent weekly level.

It's overlapping.

And it breaks away, trades down
into an old, low taking out that

low rate here with this run trades
back up into our weekly levels.

And here the trades right back
up into mitigation blocks here.

False break about
short-term high trades, low.

Consolidation and expands again, taking
out the sell side liquidity below the

marketplace or a discount PD, right.

Spend some time around a monthly level and
expands away and price seeks to go lower

last two up candles, right?

For the down move.

This candle becomes.

Maybe a valid break of a bearish
order block trades back into that

range here means threshold of both
the bodies of these candles together.

Price sells off and notice how
all up candles provide resistance.

That's what we're looking for.

We're looking for ideas that all green
candles are basically resistance levels.

Okay.

When prices trading back up into
them, we should see that operate as.

Even if they end up getting broken at
a later time, they still provide the

measure of resistance that we would
look for for institutional sponsorship.

For instance, these two candles over here,
price trades up into it here, right there.

That's an opportunity to sell
short and look at the move there.

Hang on.

Just take a look at that one.

So getting short there with a range,
uh, 536 pips, the low forms on June 1st,

2012 to move begins on May 21st, 2012.

So you can see there's a pretty
significant trade they're

trading again, using the.

Monthly weekly, daily
and dental four hour.

Let me see our levels here on a
daily timeframe to these black

lines are price trades away from
this last up candle rate for them.

Move trades back up into it here as
a bear shorter block trades, lower

and price seeks the move below this
low here to get the discount PDs.

Up candle, right?

For a down move should act as resistance.

It does in here.

And here's a potential equal high
price trades back up into that.

We could look for that to be a sell off.

It starts to sell off, but then it
comes down just into a four hour.

Well, shorter block close in the range.

It's all it gives it.

And then finally starts to trade higher.

And it's outside of our range for study.

I want you to take a look at all
of the levels in here that provide

potential setups and how much of a
range we saw from these price points.

No, this is a four hour basis.

Okay.

Look at all the sensitivity
on these levels.

Now, if we dropped back up to a daily
chart and you'll see the setups actually

become less frequent, but more, more
stunning in terms of responsiveness.

Okay.

So you can see all of
the opportunities in.

On these levels and these four hour, uh,
opportunities, these would, these would

get you in sync with the higher timeframe
daily and or weekly, but all of the

sensitivity around these levels, all each
individual unique setups and while not

every single one of them are profitable.

The vast majority of them are, and
they provide you an opportunity to do.

A short seller at logical levels.

And if you keep your focus on the monthly
and weekly levels, notice how you get

far less opportunities to be short, but
look at the responses out them here,

all these dark blue levels in here.

Okay.

And then you have the
weekly levels as well.

Very stiff resistance.

Very stiff resistance in here,
layered resistance here and weekly

and monthly layers of resistance.

And you have the daily level.

We just outlined over here.

That's what that is.

Okay.

And you can see there's a lot of
opportunity for pips, but when you

drop down to a four hour timeframe,
they gave you a more refined

entry point where it lessens your.

And it gives you closer to profitability.

So just like we showed on the bullish
side of buying with high probability

setups or swing trading, the same
thing is said on the sell side.

You're just looking for the monthly,
the weekly and the daily four hour, all

those levels that go in concert with
one another to overlap, to converge,

the more levels that converge around a
specific price level, the more likely

it's going to probably be sensitive.

But you want to focus primarily
on the monthly and weekly levels

because they're going to be the big,
biggest catalysts for big moves.

And I'm going to take everything off
the chart here with the exception of

the monthly and weekly levels again.

And I want you to take a look
at how much impact it has.

Okay.

You can see all of the weekly
levels and red and all the monthly

levels and blue, very significant
price swings, bearish shorter.

Many many times treating it that
level again, weekly levels can be

retreated to monthly levels can
be retrained to you several times

because they're hard timeframe.

Why do we permit higher timeframe
levels to be traded to multiple times?

Because larger orders in larger positions
are built on monthly, weekly level.

So it may require them multiple passes
into that level to capitalize that,

that particular price level for bears
scenarios or building in bears positions.

The consolidation in here has been
retreated to here as well, back

up until a weekly order block and
monthly order block layered in here.

And then the responsiveness off of
this level, mostly level over here.

And coupled with the weekly permitting,
some measure of trading through it.

In other words, we're not looking for
precision, always on a monthly and

weekly basis because there's going to
be a larger, uh, order block there.

So we could be trading it to the main
threshold or it could be using the low.

And that's why we had to consider
if we have a layered area of

levels on monthly and weekly.

Yes.

Expecting potential for maybe getting
stopped out, but not forgetting the

whole idea of the trade or what frames,
the idea that this market should go

lower and then take the next set up.

Because if you don't do that,
you end up missing the move and

then you end up looking back.

Say, I wish I would've
did it one more time.

And again, reaching for old lows.

You see also with weekly levels and
finally expanding to the town side.

So hopefully this has been insightful
to you guys in regards to how you take

the levels from the monthly, weekly,
and daily, and transport them to the

four hour chart to look for setups.

We're going to build on this model
in lesson six and seven, finally,

with the million dollar swing
trading model in lesson eight.