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Welcome back folks.
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This is February, 2017.
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Lesson one, swing trading.
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This teaching's going to be
specifically dealing with the ideal
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swing trading conditions for anyone.
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Okay, what is swing trading?
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It's gonna be the discipline of trading
predictable price movements in the market.
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With a high degree of
consistency, we'll be buying.
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One is in bold conditions
in the marketplace.
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Selling short embarrass conditions in the
marketplace and swing trading is a form
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of intermediate term trading with trade
durations of two weeks or longer than.
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Okay.
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What is the goal?
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Swing trading really capitalizing
on the effects of larger entities.
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Moving into a market and causing a
significant displacement in price.
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And since trade durations can be two weeks
or longer potential rewards, Arkansas.
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And trade objectives of 200
to 500 pips and magnitude or
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possible rewards for such setups.
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Every market isn't ideal for
setups for swing trading.
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Now you want to avoid for
swing trading specifically.
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You want to be avoiding favorite markets
in general for swing trading purposes.
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Larger moves every year, rotate in
and out of different marketplaces.
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There is no standard swing trading
market or pair every three months.
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There's a new opportunity
formed for swing trading.
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What once was a big mover will
not always be the next big mover.
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This time you have to investigate
look deeper behind what
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has most recently happened?
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Now market profiles matter, markets move
from one profile to the next, in all
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timeframes in monthly and weekly charts.
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Look for the current market profile for
your markets of study, avoid lackluster
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or lethargic markets to have little
to no movement over the last three.
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Now market profiles are consolidations
where it's range bound, then
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there's trending market profiles and
there's reversal market profiles.
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Now inside of the middle
one here, trending.
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This is going to be seen as
expansion and retracement.
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I'm going to talk more
about that in the next.
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Trending markets equal large flows.
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If the aim and swing trading is
to position ourselves in moves
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that are likely to move at large
distance, we should be looking
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for markets that are trending.
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If a market is confined to an
obvious trading range, this does
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not indicate it has high odds for
directional setup, building your watch
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list of markets that are trending.
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We're having market profiles that are
trending on the monthly end or weekly
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puts high probability behind your setups.
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When we're looking at monthly charts and
weekly charts, you're gonna be looking
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for price action to indicate that it's
not confined in a small little range.
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In other words, it's moved away
from a consolidation area already.
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Once it's left a consolidation area,
chances are we're going to be in a
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training environment and it will most
likely move to a larger level or PD.
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On a higher timeframe, monthly and our
weekly, having an understanding that large
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flows or big participation by smart money.
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That is what pushes these marketplaces
only hard timeframes in one direction
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or the other that is equated in terms of
large flows, trending markets on higher
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timeframe charts are indicative of major
players buying or selling that particular.
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You want to be looking at markets
that are trending because that is
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the telltale sign, that there are
participants in the marketplace on an
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institutional basis that are pushing
price in that higher timeframe.
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Chart trending markets again,
that's the profile that you're
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looking to participate in since
the monthly and weekly charts are.
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So long-term, and we're actually
taking trades on a four hour basis.
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We're going to look for the setups
on monthly and weekly and daily, but
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we'll execute on four hour charts.
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So if we're looking for moose on a four
hour basis for entry, monthly and or
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weekly chart, we have the great deal
probability behind us that the market's
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going to move in a trending fashion for.
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Now, when we're looking at currencies,
we can go through the marketplace
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on a monthly and weekly basis and
quickly ascertain whether or not
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what markets are trending higher,
which markets are trending lower,
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and which markets are trending in
a consolidation or holding pattern.
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Marcus they're in large trading ranges.
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You want to avoid.
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Because it's there for a reason.
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If the market's confined to a
small consolidation or range bound
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environment, it's showing an indication
of a lack of institutional interest.
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So if the market can't move out of that
consolidation higher than there's an
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evidence of what a lack of buying, if
it can break out that consolidation to
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the lower end, it's a lack of selling.
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So it's going to stay
in a state of neutral.
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It can't go higher.
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It can't go lower.
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So therefore it's going
to stay in a range.
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That's not what you're looking
for for swing trades for
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the highest probable setups.
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When you have markets that are trending
higher or lower on a monthly and weekly
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charts, or they have already left a area
of consolidation that is indicative of big
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players having muscled the marketplace out
of that holding pattern or that trading
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range or consolidation market profile by
having that on our monthly and or weekly.
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When we moved down to a daily and or four
hour chart, it will help you find set ups
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to have a great deal of energy behind it.
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So you're getting
involved in a marketplace.
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It's about to take off and move a
great deal of distance on these hard
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timeframe, monthly and or weekly charts.
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Be willing to err on the direct.
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Avoid the temptation to pick market
tops and bottoms and price action.
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It's far more likely to see the existing
long-term trending market profile to
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influence price action over a long-term
reversal folks from a long-term trend and
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the market tide will carry your trade to
the winter circle more often than not.
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When we look at charts on these hard
time, clean monthly and weekly basis.
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We're focusing on what's the largest,
most strongest directional play there
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is because if they're seeing it clearly
on a monthly chart, then it's probably
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going to move another month, at least.
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Okay.
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And since we're looking for at least
two weeks duration on our trade, the
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probabilities are in our favor that
we're probably going to get another
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continuation of that same previous.
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Direction higher or lower.
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And again, it's on markets that
have already shown a willingness
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to move outside of a consolidation.
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By having our focus on these long-term
trends, it removes the necessity
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of figuring out what side of the
marketplace you want to be on.
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If the marketplace for monthly and weekly
suggest that you should be a buyer,
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then obviously we should be focusing
on being a swing trader on long side.
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Now, what that does for you
is sometimes it's going to.
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Create arguments internally.
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You're going to see the marketplace
and assume for whatever reason that
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there's some evidence that you should
not be a buyer and you're going to
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resist taking the buy opportunity.
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You want to avoid doing that?
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Because if you see the movement on the
monthly and weekly charts in the kidney,
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that once they go higher and you get a
bicycle on a daily and or a four hour
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chart, you want to take that signal.
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If it happens to fail that's okay.
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Because you've already adopted the
mindset that you're willing to be wrong,
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but you're on, you're going to be.
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With a great deal of evidence behind
you, that you may still be in the right
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direction if you take another buy.
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But what happens if you take a bicycle
when the monthly and weekly are suggesting
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it's going higher, say you take a
bicycle on a daily or four hours set up
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and it stops you out and it's a loss.
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Then you take the next.
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And it's a buying
opportunity and it fails.
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What it's telling us is it's probably
near a longer term or intermediate
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term shift in the marketplace.
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And that present bullishness may be
waning or that trend may be tired.
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So it will give you insight immediately.
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It'll give you feedback, but it also
is a reminder that you should not be
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fearing taking losses because you're
going to have them anyway, but it makes
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much more sense to be trading on the
hard timeframe, monthly and weekly basis.
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In that directional bias.
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So if we have our trades focused there
many times, you're going to see if you
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study the moves that take place with
a great deal of magnitude are going to
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be in the same direction that monthly,
weekly charts indicating anyway.
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So it makes better sense for us as
traders to be willing, to be wrong.
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Buying in long-term
trends that are higher or.
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Being short and long-term bearish
moves on monthly and weekly and being
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stopped out on our short positions.
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It's far more likely that you're going
to be profitable and have the move work
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out in your favor than it is against you.
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And I know it's a difficult thing for some
of you to do, but you have to stick to
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a mindset and it starts with the higher
timeframe, monthly and weekly chart.
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Because if we can do this, we will
remove all the ambiguity about what
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it is that you should be looking.
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And this is how it starts.
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You start with a monthly and weekly
basis and you work down top down now just
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simply because the market's most likely
to move higher or lower than the chart.
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Doesn't indicate that there's a up,
there's other things you have to look for.
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Look at the Euro dollar monthly chart.
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And I want you to take a look
at this chart and you can see
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there's several different.
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Market profiles here, but we're going to
focus on the last section of price action
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from around the end of February of 2015.
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And we'll just use the March 1st,
2015, since this is a delineation
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in time from the bottom of the
chart and till present time now.
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And let's just highlight that
now this little section in here,
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if I was to ask you, what would
you call that market profile?
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In this condition right here, this would
clearly be a consolidation market profile.
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The market's showing an
unwillingness to go higher and
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an unwillingness to go lower.
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It's stuck in a range.
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So if it's indicating this on the
monthly chart, is this a high probability
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market to trade for buys and sells?
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Not that it would be indicated
on a monthly chart now.
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So let's take a look at
what's going on in the world.
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Okay.
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Here's the weekly chart.
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And again, here's that same consolidation.
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Now one would click to be saying,
oh, well, you know, I can see
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there several hundred pips is still
probable market direction in there.
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And that will be true.
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The problem is, is this not having a great
ease of moving outside of that range?
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It's staying in a tight
consolidated range.
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You can trade this type of pattern
back and forth inside the range.
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You can do that.
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Absolutely.
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But when we're swing trading, the best
scenarios are the focus on markets that
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do not have this telltale hallmark.
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You want to be looking for a
trending environment, a market
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that has able to move on a monthly
and weekly basis, because that is
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indicative of huge, large flows.
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Moving into that particular asset.
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Let's take a look at.
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Kiwi versus the dollar.
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Okay.
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Look at this market action in here.
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Anything significantly different about
that versus what we saw in the Europe.
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Obviously we have a market
that's trying to go higher.
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It has higher lows.
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It has higher highs.
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It's moving back up.
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It's closed in a liquidity
void up to the 74 90.
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00:12:54,290 --> 00:12:58,310
So it's showing a willingness
to go higher on a monthly basis.
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So is this a consolidation or is
this a trending or a reversal?
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It's a trending environment
for the monthly chart.
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It keeps making higher
highs and higher lows.
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And let's take a look at that same.
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Payer on a weekly basis.
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Here's that same section of price action.
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00:13:20,280 --> 00:13:25,710
And you can see it's at successive higher,
high and higher, low in this environment.
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The market is indicating on a higher
timeframe, monthly and weekly basis.
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There are buyers willing to
buy this particular payer.
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Let's take a look at another pair.
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It's just a dollar
versus the Japanese yen.
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This is the monthly chart.
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00:13:40,935 --> 00:13:44,475
Okay, you can see there's a small
little section of price action price was
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staying inside of a consolidation and
then it left the consolidation abruptly.
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Here's that same consolidation
here only weekly timeframe.
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00:13:54,895 --> 00:13:58,825
And you can see it moves
several hundred pips higher.
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00:13:59,605 --> 00:14:04,465
Now, again, it's shown a willingness
to leave the consolidation that is very
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strong for looking for swing trades.
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In this case, you'd be looking
for swing trades on the line.
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00:14:14,890 --> 00:14:17,209
Let's go back to the Kiwi dollar weekly.
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And we're going to focus in on
this little area right here.
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Okay.
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00:14:21,750 --> 00:14:25,020
So we've already outlined the
fact that the Eurodollar was
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00:14:25,020 --> 00:14:26,670
in a long-term consolidation.
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That's not indicative of a swing trading
market, but we do have one here with
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the New Zealand versus the dollar index.
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00:14:32,880 --> 00:14:35,520
Now the weekly was indicating
that the price for New Zealand
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00:14:35,520 --> 00:14:37,560
versus dollar was bullish.
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00:14:37,829 --> 00:14:40,380
It kept making higher
highs and higher lows.
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00:14:41,890 --> 00:14:44,740
So it's having a willingness to
go higher on a monthly chart.
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00:14:44,830 --> 00:14:46,600
So it just kept pressing higher,
higher, and higher higher.
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So this is a good payer that
we can go into further study.
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So we're going to go into this
chart and break it down in
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the form of vertical lines.
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Delineating each line
represents a new month.
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00:14:58,990 --> 00:15:00,610
Now, if you look at the bottom
of the chart, you'll see
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these little orange segments.
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That's the next month.
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And then he goes another little
white square and it's an orange
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square white square orange square.
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00:15:09,120 --> 00:15:13,050
What this is showing is, or basically
all I'm delineating is, uh, the first
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00:15:13,530 --> 00:15:15,270
white square represents the first month.
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00:15:15,449 --> 00:15:17,130
Then the orange square
represents the second month.
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00:15:17,459 --> 00:15:20,640
The next white square
represents the third month.
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00:15:20,910 --> 00:15:24,300
So I'm showing you a pattern if you
will, at what prices has done over
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the course of three month intervals.
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00:15:27,449 --> 00:15:29,760
So what we're looking for
is a buying opportunity.
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Okay.
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00:15:31,415 --> 00:15:36,125
And you can see how price offered that
just about every three to four months.
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So every orange area we saw some
measure of retracement, and then there
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00:15:41,735 --> 00:15:44,585
was a buying opportunity the very next
month or inside of the next month.
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00:15:44,615 --> 00:15:49,925
So every alternating three months or so,
there was a new buying opportunity and
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00:15:49,925 --> 00:15:51,365
price kept pressing higher and higher.
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00:15:54,765 --> 00:15:55,724
And here's a daily chart.
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We're going to zoom in a little
bit here and take a closer look.
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And I'm also going to give you a
little bit of homework assignment.
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We're going to talk sleep.
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We're actually going to go into this,
uh, teaching on Tuesdays live session
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of the coming week for the mentorship.
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So I'm actually going to give you this
homework and we're going to actually
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00:16:13,454 --> 00:16:19,635
review it as a live session on Tuesday
morning, but we have that same.
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00:16:20,565 --> 00:16:24,015
Area of price segmented
in monthly intervals.
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00:16:24,315 --> 00:16:28,835
So every vertical line delineates,
a new month and you see around.
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00:16:29,839 --> 00:16:32,130
And there's a consolidation
or retracement.
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00:16:32,400 --> 00:16:34,140
It comes back and gives you
another buying opportunity.
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00:16:34,650 --> 00:16:34,829
Okay.
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I'm just going to pull it the first one.
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That's obvious.
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00:16:36,869 --> 00:16:37,500
You can see here.
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Price comes back and retraces
gives a buying opportunity.
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I want you to study each one
of these and want to review
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00:16:44,339 --> 00:16:45,900
this in today's live session.
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00:16:45,900 --> 00:16:47,189
Coming up this coming week.
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00:16:48,420 --> 00:16:51,119
There's a buying opportunity in
here where price rallied away.
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00:16:53,979 --> 00:16:55,030
Price rallied here
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00:16:58,280 --> 00:16:58,819
and rallied here.
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00:17:01,810 --> 00:17:06,619
Right at this point and then give
them a buying opportunity there.
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00:17:08,000 --> 00:17:13,339
I gave him a buying opportunity at
that low and at that low as well.
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00:17:13,460 --> 00:17:19,369
Now, what I want to ask you is looking at
this in terms of how much price has moved.
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00:17:20,129 --> 00:17:21,149
These are swing trades.
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00:17:21,569 --> 00:17:25,589
That means the duration you're holding
is for about two weeks or longer.
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00:17:26,460 --> 00:17:30,290
By having this view point on price,
how long you're holding the trade
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00:17:30,300 --> 00:17:31,680
and direction you're focusing on.
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00:17:32,159 --> 00:17:35,490
It gives you an idea where you're
looking for the trades and then what
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00:17:35,490 --> 00:17:38,010
you're looking for a buying opportunity.
288
00:17:38,580 --> 00:17:42,180
The price has to come back
to a level of what discount.
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00:17:43,020 --> 00:17:43,350
Okay.
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00:17:43,770 --> 00:17:51,245
So if we get a level of discount and
the price goes back to a PDF, If we look
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00:17:51,245 --> 00:17:58,294
at price in terms of the range, if we
look at where cell stops are, all those
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00:17:58,294 --> 00:18:01,145
things, I want you to use those ideas.
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00:18:01,354 --> 00:18:01,594
Okay.
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00:18:01,594 --> 00:18:05,435
And his PDRs at each one of
these reference points here.
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00:18:06,064 --> 00:18:06,294
Okay.
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00:18:06,304 --> 00:18:08,614
I'm going to actually going to go through
every single one of these on Tuesdays
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00:18:08,614 --> 00:18:10,564
live session coming up for this week.
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00:18:11,294 --> 00:18:16,304
But for now, I want you to think
in terms of how many opportunities
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00:18:16,364 --> 00:18:18,405
were presented in this pair.
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00:18:19,455 --> 00:18:24,524
I want a swing traders perspective
and how many opportunities that
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00:18:25,004 --> 00:18:28,875
were made available in terms
of several hundred PIP moves.
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00:18:30,135 --> 00:18:31,935
So we didn't see little tiny little moves.
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00:18:31,935 --> 00:18:35,324
We saw several hundred pips
of movement from these loads.
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00:18:36,960 --> 00:18:43,620
Some of them actually are a little
bit longer term and the formation.
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00:18:43,649 --> 00:18:47,580
So they would have been wonderful
ideal scenarios to get in sync with a
306
00:18:47,610 --> 00:18:49,920
long-term or position traders and mindset.
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00:18:50,030 --> 00:18:50,790
We just closed.
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00:18:51,090 --> 00:18:54,389
January is content for
long-term position trading.
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00:18:55,139 --> 00:18:59,040
There are opportunities in here where
long-term position trading can be.
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00:19:00,375 --> 00:19:04,725
I want you to think about that as well,
try to classify why certain loads would
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00:19:04,725 --> 00:19:06,345
have been good for those ideas as well.
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00:19:08,024 --> 00:19:10,575
When we look at swing
trading, we're looking at high
313
00:19:10,575 --> 00:19:12,794
probability directional trades.
314
00:19:13,245 --> 00:19:14,205
That's what we're looking for.
315
00:19:14,504 --> 00:19:16,095
We're not looking for range-bound trading.
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00:19:16,395 --> 00:19:18,405
We're not looking for turtle soup.
317
00:19:19,605 --> 00:19:21,075
To stay inside of a consolidation.
318
00:19:21,105 --> 00:19:26,235
We're looking for strong, directional
plays, swing trading model that I employ
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00:19:26,295 --> 00:19:29,175
is highly linked to directional mindset.
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00:19:30,225 --> 00:19:33,255
So if I'm looking at a monthly and
weekly chart and it's indicating
321
00:19:33,255 --> 00:19:36,585
that it wants to go higher on those
terms, those two timeframes, I'm going
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00:19:36,585 --> 00:19:40,155
to be looking to be a buyer and I'm
going to be using all my tools to
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00:19:40,155 --> 00:19:42,015
get in sync with that buyers mentor.
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00:19:44,445 --> 00:19:46,695
If I'm bearish on monthly and
weekly charts, I'm going to be
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00:19:46,695 --> 00:19:49,425
looking for all my tools online, I
think gave me some sell scenario.
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00:19:50,415 --> 00:19:52,475
Now, the next lesson we go into, we're
actually going to get a little bit
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00:19:52,475 --> 00:19:55,784
more framework about what it is that
we look for to build these ideas.
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00:19:55,784 --> 00:19:58,485
Not just look at monthly and
weekly charts, but bring a little
329
00:19:58,485 --> 00:20:01,605
bit more definition to what it
is that we do for swing trading.
29202
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