All language subtitles for Description- HTF Market Profile Study

Welcome back folks, welcome
to a new week of trading.

Um, before we get into it, that's
what, you know, it's going to be a

short session today and we'll try to
keep the sessions brief because the

teachings are going to be pretty lengthy.

So let's keep that in mind.

I know some of you have an issue with
timeliness about digesting the content,

but, uh, lucky the majority of the.

And the teaching.

So there'll be a
long-winded sessions there.

I want to introduce a concept
you're going to be referring to in

lesson three, we're gonna be looking
at a relative strength analysis.

And some ideas when you use these
concepts and where to apply them.

So it's kind of like a complimentary
teaching, cause I'm just

going to briefly mention it in
passing, uh, in lesson three.

So that way I'm not bogging down
that lesson cause there's a lot

of content for less than three.

So if I give you supporting teachings
throughout this week, they will be.

In, uh, in concert with the same idea
or premise with less than three, because

otherwise I could create a whole month
of just less than three by itself, I

guess, in a way it really is, but it's
sub sub lessons or supporting lessons

to, uh, to drive home to the content.

Okay.

So we're going to be looking at K.

So we're gonna be looking at the
weekly charts first, and we're going

to just scroll through the Euro,
the pound, all the New Zealand cat.

Japanese yen, Swiss seat
and the dollar index.

Now I'm not showing any
charts with analysis on it.

All we're looking at is price action.

Okay.

And we're gonna be looking at some
specific viewpoints and things that

are salient to knowing what the
future price legs may be higher or

lower, or if there's going to be a
high probability for a swing at all.

Now, obviously if we were all in the room
together and I asked you all to raise your

head, And I'm asking this rhetorically.

So those that are here live,
you don't need to do this.

The, uh, the folks that look at
analysis and they start looking at

trend lines, or they look at the Elliott
wave or, or market structure, even,

um, some of the things that go along
with all of those ideas, or generally

count the same and you you're looking
for something to indicate that the

market's going to move higher or lower.

What I have learned is that.

Very few teachers or disciplines of
trading focus on the conditions of

the marketplace that would arrive
at a probable trade for swing.

If the markets are predisposed to go
higher or lower, that's one thing.

Okay.

But we have to look at a market
that's predisposed to move in general

because most markets are generally
trying to be maintained in a range.

Okay.

And.

If we start on a higher timeframe, weekly
chart, and it can be done on a month.

I'm just going to save some time.

But everything you do here on the weekly,
either supply it to the monthly as well.

And we'll have those rules in
less than three that you're

going to have this month.

But when we scroll through
the weekly charts, this is the

Euro versus the dollar weekly.

And what you want to be looking for
is the last three to six months trend.

Okay.

Or this basically what's the price
action in the last three seconds.

That's all that's necessary.

You're a swing trader.

That's the, that's your time horizon.

You don't look at 15 year charts.

You don't look at 20 year charts.

You don't look at one-year charts.

All you need to know is what's the
last three to six months time horizon.

What has the market done in
the last three to six months?

Okay.

As long as your charts
show that much data.

Okay.

You'll know where the next probable
price swing is going to be and

what it's going to be reaching.

And it's really just that simple, uh,
what happens is we start applying a

wave, a B, and C and retracement, this
and that, and the other thing, and we

start complicating it when it's a simple
task of looking at where, where have we

been in the last three to six months?

And where are the liquidity pools?

Where's the, uh, the PDAs in
reference to the weekly chart.

And here's the main thing.

This is what we're focusing on today.

What market profile are we in?

For the weekly chart and,
or the monthly chart.

And some of you sent
me questions, you know?

W how do you determine
what the market profile is?

Like?

What, what stages of analysis, or
what classifications do you use

to outline that, or frame it as a
consolidation, trending or reversal.

And we're going to kind
of cover that today.

So looking at the Eurodollar,
going to take a look at the last.

Three to six months.

Okay.

And we're in February now.

So

we're going to go back to here.

A little bit less far, and I'm
going to ask you it's free.

It should be obvious if one were to ask
everyone in the room, if I was standing

in front of y'all and a big group, I
say, okay, raise your hand right now.

If you think in the shaded
area, that is a trending market,

you'd all raise your hand.

If you believe that.

And for those that were holding
your hand up, I would ask you if

it was trending higher or lower.

And obviously we were, we would
reduce that down to a smaller group.

How would I ask you all by showing
up your hand, would this be

considered a reversal market profile?

And you'd all raise your hand
if that's what you agreed.

And finally, the last one, I would
ask everyone if this would be a

consolidation or a range-bound,
and obviously I would expect

everyone's hand to be up on this one.

And that would be, uh, the
allocation for the market profile.

I would say this isn't.

So with the weekly dollar.

Being in this range,
what makes it a range?

The fact that it has not significantly
moved away from any historical lows

in recent times is outside of their
scope of reference three to six months.

But I want you to look at this
low here, because even though it's

just outside that we have this low
here, which is comparable to that.

So it's not that much of a difference in
terms of the range it's maintained this

range longer than three to six months, we
went below it here, but has yet to show

any willingness to continue going with.

That's the reason why every time we trade
into an old high or an old low, you do

not know with a great deal of certainty.

If that break below an old,
low or break above and OHI is

going to be a valid breakout.

That's why we do not look at
consolidations with breakout ideas.

Okay.

When I first started trading, uh, the
concept was look for consolidations

and then wait for a breakout
and then trading that direct.

I tried that and many times lost
a lot of money and frustrated.

So what I learned when I saw that turtle
soup pattern in street smarts book.

Yeah.

I fell in love with it because
that made perfect sense to me.

There's more false breakouts
than there are valid breakouts.

So if we see consolidations on a weekly
and or monthly chart, we have to wait

for a valid displacement from that
range, for instance, If we had broken

this low and this low with a lot more
movement lower than what would be

seen here, because we don't see much
of a movement lower in this move.

We only went down just a little bit below
it and I'm gonna put a horizontal line so

you can see the difference between that.

And we're gonna take a huge step forward.

Once we outline this and
you'll know exactly what Marcus

you should be looking for.

So here's the old low in
the last three, six months.

So we have this low.

It went below this low and then
quickly returned back inside the range.

That's not good.

That's not a valid breakout.

That's maintaining a trading
range or consolidation.

So if we know that the market
is in a consolidation, the first

thing we want to do is try not
to be looking for swing trades.

Okay.

That would be a sell below this low.

That's not what we're looking for.

Okay.

It has to show a significant difference.

When we look at the yang,
you'll see what I mean by that.

But in contrast, just know that
this is a consolidation because

it's having a difficult time
making higher highs and lower lows.

When it takes out an old, low,
it returns inside of the range.

That's the consolidation.

If it takes out an old high
and trades back down into the

range, that's in consolidation.

It's this, that simple.

Now when it's trending, it continuously
makes higher highs and lower I'm

sorry, higher highs and higher
lows for an uptrend and lower.

And lower highs for downtrends.

You're going to be looking at, like
I said, in the first teaching re

referencing the professional accumulation
of distribution patterns, the banking

perspective, every down candle should
be supporting price or new buying should

come in or every up candle should be
seen with selling or lower prices.

It should be resistant for up
candles and support for down candles.

If you see that in price action.

You're actually seeing the
institutional order flow.

That's pushing price.

What we're focusing on is just, are
we in a market that is predisposed to

trend one direction over the other.

Now, if we were to ask by way of
a survey, If the dollar index is

bullish, every foreign currency
should go down and start trending.

In other words, if the, if the dollar
starts trending, bullishly higher,

every foreign currency should be in
strong bear markets then no, that's

not true because some markets,
they may stay in consolidation.

So my question is, before we start
looking in this discipline or trading

to look for swing trades, we have.

Identify which markets or asset classes
or in this case, when we're talking

about Forex, which pairs or currencies
have the likelihood or the probabilities

of moving in a trending environment.

Also, if we can take that same analogy and
just reverse it, let's say that the dollar

index is held in consolidation, which
I believe that's what we're seeing now.

Which pair or currency is allowed to move.

Now, when that, when that dollar is
being held in consolidation, that's the

other equation that you have to look at?

So it's not just simply
a to B equals C okay.

Or dollar bullishness in a trend equals
all the foreign currencies in a downward.

That doesn't equate to that.

And that's what causes this business
or this asset class, a great deal

of difficulty traders come in.

And they think that it's naturally
going to be well, if this is

death in the outcome should
be that for the other markets.

And it's not always the case.

That's why those that have a disagreement
with me in relationships too.

Um, correlation, they say correlation.

Correlation absolutely works, but you
have to know how to look for it and

find the evidences of it in price.

So yes, there's cracks and correlation
and that's how we find the SMT diversions.

That's how we know that there's
professional buyer distribution.

But before you go into all those things,
you have to determine where the stages

what's the stage of the marketplace.

Are we predisposed to move
or are we predisposed?

Sustain?

And think about it like this.

If our swing trading model is heavily
slanted to directional biased trading.

In other words, the direction it
has to be going higher or lower

clearly, why do we focus on that?

What makes it so significant that
that's what we're looking for, because

if the market's being pushed one
sided and we can see the evidence

of it on a higher timeframe, we know
we have large float or big banks.

Institutions or large
funds behind that move.

That means it's going to be a lot
of buying, not just a little bit

of buying or a lot of selling,
not just a little bit of selling.

So that big elephant in that children's
pool analogy I used in the market

maker discussions, that displacement
is evidence that we have big money,

it work, and that's what we need.

We need to see that in our trades.

So in contrast, when we look through
the weekly charts we look for not this.

We're looking for the pattern
of willingness to move around.

Is it, is it staying inside
of a defined range like this,

or is it making nice swings?

You're not looking for just trends.

Okay.

You're looking for the ability to
move outside of the ranges and create

new ranges because inside there's
new price swings, making lower lows

or higher highs in reference to
when an old range with differences.

If we were to broke down considerably
lower than this one, like this low

here, if we went much lower than.

Okay, then we would expect, if it came
back to this level, then we could see

some resistance and then maybe another
price like lower, but because it only just

went down below it just by a little bit
that, and then returned back to the range.

Now that's not good.

That's not good for swing trading.

So.

And disciplines less than swing trading.

This would be a good market for
short-term trading and day trading.

But for swinging, you
can't use the Euro dollar.

You have to go to another pair.

So let's move over to
the pound dollar weekly.

Okay.

And we have a pair here that has
in the last three to six months in

contrast, let's take a brief look
at the Euro, look at the Euro.

Okay.

And remember.

For those that have been following
along, even in August and during my free

sessions, I told everyone that the Euro
dollar is going to probably stay in a

defined trading range for a long time.

And it could go for months,
look where we're at.

Or February at six months,
it stayed in a trading range.

It hasn't gone anywhere.

It's just meandering around.

That's why I have been so aggressive
about the Euro dollar, because

the money's not in Euro dollar.

Okay.

So let's go over to that pound
dollar and look at the last three

to six months for this pair.

It's real simple.

It's not like a whole lot of the
indicators stuff you just take in your,

your chart and not getting too crazy.

Michael.

Good grief.

Okay.

So my question to you is, is
this pair on a weekly chart?

Is this an, a consolidate.

No, it's in a trending environment.

Now there are smaller consolidations
like this one and the one we're

in presently right now, and this
one here prior to moving, but

it's a lot of motion in this pair.

Lots of, lot more movement in
this pair than that, of what

we saw in the Euro dollar.

Okay.

If we're going to be looking for
swing trades, we're more apt to

finding a swing trade in the pound.

Versus the Euro, the Euro is
being held in consolidation.

And personally, I'll
just add this as a note.

I think the reason why the year was being
held in consolidations, because there's

a lot of issues with the European union.

There's been discussions about the Brexit,
whether they're going to permit it or not.

Um, you know, resistance is going to
be on, on the part of the European

union in regards to all those ideas.

So, uh, and there's other countries
that are considering the same thing.

They're not just limiting
it to just the UK.

If we're looking at a market, that's true.

Now here's the important thing.

Yes.

When a pair of shoes, strong
indications like this, it's, it's

moving, not staying in range.

It's actually moving one direction.

The first thought process is, okay, this
has a willingness to keep going lower.

We do not try to pick bottoms.

Okay.

So we're going to always look for
evidences to look, to sell short.

And a pair like this
because it's moving lower.

It's making very strong strides, lower
every time it moves aggressively.

And it's a big displacement.

Is it on the upside or on the downside?

Clearly, it's one of the downside it's
lower here aggressively after moving

in small consolidation, big move lower
after moving in a small consolidation,

small open solidation, big moves, lower.

So all the big ranges are the black cans.

The big price swings
are all on the downside.

So this market, or this payer
particularly is heavily distributed.

It's not being aggressively bought.

So we have on a weekly chart, we
have equal loads down here also.

Okay.

So when there there's a big,
large liquidity pool risk

thing right below there.

And we know we have this level up
here in terms of closing in this.

And we have a short-term
high that's yet to violate.

So we had no have biceps above
here, bearish or block begins on

this series of three candles up.

So we have the liquidity pool
resting above 28, 34, thereabouts.

And then we have the lows down here
with a sell side liquidity pool and.

It doesn't require you to, um,
take trades only on the sell side.

Now the best scenario would be to
look for shorts on, on swing trades.

Yes, but now think about
this, if you were trading.

Okay.

And you were trading short only
on this pair, you would never

see these little moves here or
in here or the most recent one.

Because you're focusing only primarily on
the downside and that's what you should

do initially, when you grow in your
understanding about what you're learning

in this mentorship, you will see counter
trend, swing trades, and that's going

to be part of the specific patterns.

There's going to be a section
in the bullish and embarrass

pattern for this teaching.

I'm going to apply.

I'm going to give you
two of them that I use.

That's countertrend in the condition
that I use when I want to treat.

The long-term trend like this year,
what would be, um, what was the rules

for buying in the market like this?

Okay, I'll give you those, but you want
to focus primarily looking at only shorts

because this is being heavily distributed.

Now, if we were looking at this
pair and we see, okay, this pair

shows a willingness to go lower
while the same time do Euro.

Isn't consolidation.

I want you to think about what
that means for Euro pound.

'cause we're gonna talk a lot about
what makes Europan mood this month.

If we have a pound dollar moving
lower on weekly, and it's having a

profile, that's not maintaining a
range it's in training environment.

While the Euro dollar is in
consolidation, it's going to have a

direct impact on how the Euro pounds.

And if the Euro pound is based on what we
see in Euro and cable or British pound,

by having this outline, we'll know where
the biggest price moves are in directional

bias for that payer Euro pound.

So that also will filter out
all of your other trades.

For instance, short-term
trades and day trades.

You'll be able to focus more heavily
on one side of that market or that.

All the dollar.

If we were looking at this pair

last three, six months, if I were to
ask you if this was a trending market

consolidation or reversal, hopefully
you would all say that this is any

consolidation is having a difficult.

Trading above this high, let
alone these equal highs for,

I think it really wants to go.

Then we have this low down here
it's been held in consolidation.

Okay.

So all the dollar on a weekly
chart also has no displacement

of any significant magnitude.

For instance, we have not shamed.

We've not seen any price rallies
that make any move outside of the.

And we've not seen any declines
to take us out of this range.

So this payer is in a state of neutrality.

It can't, it can't find its way yet.

It's being held in consolidation.

Now I taught in a market maker
concepts that the market maker

itself, their business is to
hold a currency in a predefined

range and allow other currencies.

Move and allow the displacement to take
place there that will affect, and it

can do this by having control over the,
the majors, which is all dollar base.

This is the reason why I
teach dollar based currencies.

Not only because I get tax treatment,
that's favorable for me in the U S

because I trade dollar base pairs,
but by understanding every dollar

base pair or the majors you'll know
what all these exotic pairs are

doing, even though I don't trade them.

And I try not to instill the idea that you
should passionately try to do it, because

if you can't make money in the majors,
then you don't know what you're doing.

It's more consistent.

It's easy to see the setups against
the dollar when you compound it.

And we will teach this stuff in the
mentorship, but when you compound these

ideas, okay, for instance, look, we
have here, we have the Aussie dollar.

Okay.

Or the Australian dollar
is being kept in a range.

So is.

But look at this, we have the pound
moving, not in a consolidation,

but it's any trending environment.

What do you think that would
mean for a pair that would couple

pound and Australian dollar?

What would that, do I want
you to think about that?

I don't expect you to know right now if
you're new or if you've never considered

it, but I want you to think about
these are all homework assignments for

you to go in and look at what price
has done relative to these ideas.

For the Aussie dollar.

This is another pair that is not
favorable for high probability swings.

It doesn't mean you can't
take short term trades.

It just means that it's not
highly favorable for swing

trades, New Zealand dollar.

Look at this pair here.

If we look at this pair over
the last three to six weeks.

Is this pair in a consolidation,
reversal or trending it's in a state of.

Trending, it's going higher.

It's making higher highs and higher lows.

We have an intermediate term
high formed here, but we have

since resumed going higher.

So my question is, would this
be a pair that you could be

favorably hunting swing trades?

Absolutely because it's not having
a difficult time moving above.

Okay.

And it's staying one side.

You can see that it's making it.

It's finding support all down.

Candles are finding support and
it's breaking through all the up

candles that makes short-term highs.

Every time that's occurring,
it's showing institutional order

or institutional order flow.

Rather it's giving you the, the bias
that this pair wants to trade higher.

It can't, it can't be argued that if you
look at something like this versus the

year, Or New Zealand versus the Australian
or even New Zealand with the pound.

Now think about what this does.

Imagine the relationship between the
British pound and the New Zealand dollar.

What elements would you
expect to see in price action?

If you combine this
profile with that profile?

What would you expect
to see in price action?

And how would that
relate to swing trading?

Would you expect moves?

That would be significant.

Would you expect small
ranges or a consolidation?

These are all homework assignments.

I want you to take a look at your,
your, your study using these ideas,

but I'm highlighting the importance
of looking at the weekly chart first.

And again, you're going
to do this with a monthly.

On the Canadian dollar
going to do the same thing,

Michael.

Okay.

Now the Canadian dollar versus the.

Is this any consolidation trending or
reversal it's in a consolidation as well.

It could be reversal.

It could be seen some measure
of risk reversal up in here.

We don't know yet, but right now overall
easiest one to reach for is consolidation.

If it's, if you have to think
about it, if you have to weigh out

whether or not it's trending or not.

Probably not.

It's either jumps off the chart
at you three to six months.

Is that moving in a predefined range
or is it trending if it's trending,

then you know that this market is
being accumulated or distributed.

Okay.

If it's moving higher, buyers
are really buying it up.

If it's moving lower, they're
really distributing or selling it.

So if we know.

That we have a
consolidation in this payer.

We have consolidation in Euro.

We have consolidation in Aussie, but we
have trending environments with the pound.

We have training environments
with the New Zealand.

Okay.

So we already know that New Zealand and
Pam, those payers coupled with other

payers should have nice swing trading.

But we're focusing
primarily on the dollar.

So what I'm saying here is swing
trading for dollar based currencies

are best suited in New Zealand
dollar and pound dollar right now,

as indicated by the weekly chart,
we're going to skip over a Yan.

We're going to go to dollar Swiss
first, and I shouldn't have to

draw this on here, but I'm going
to do it for completeness sake.

You can see that we have
the Swiss against the Dutch.

It has also maintained a distinct range.

It's consolidating on
the weekly chart now.

And there's some of, you're probably
looking at this thinking yourself.

Oh, okay.

Michael, this is a weekly
chart and you could be a swing

trader on a lower timeframe.

Well, that's not how I
define a swing trade.

I need.

For a Swain tray.

I need the weekly chart to support
the idea because then I have a

great deal, more magnitude expected.

I don't have, uh, I don't
have just a daily chart.

For instance, you're suggesting
it's going to go higher or lower.

I have a weekly and a monthly chart.

And if these timeframes indicate
that the market is really wanting

to go higher or to there should
be support level and therefore

it should be mature, a higher PD.

That would be above the marketplace, like
a bear shorter block or an old high that

should draw a price up there because I'm
trading off of a monthly and weekly chart.

But if I don't see the profile that
is supportive of a swing trading

idea in that pair, there may be a
trade to set up that it comes to

fruition and I just didn't see it.

And I'm okay with that.

But you're going to see if
you go through the charts like

this, you can't miss the big.

The, this can't hide from it.

It's impossible for it to hide from you
because you're limiting your scope to

only the markets that are really being
pushed around and not every currency

is going to move in concert in contrary
direction to what the dollar does.

It may stay in a consolidation
while the dollar goes higher,

when it should be going with.

Or vice versa.

If the dollar is going, uh, lower than the
foreign currency is all should go higher.

That's the general idea or theme, but
it doesn't always occur in the way you

avoid getting caught up buying duds.

Okay.

Or selling markets.

It won't go lower.

If you start here, you look in
the marketplace on the higher

timeframes and see are they in
consolidation because they're,

they're being held in consolidation.

There's a reason there's no
interest in buying and selling it.

Otherwise large funds would be pouring in.

So we have another consolidation
here on Swifty, and I'm going

to go to the Japanese yen.

Okay.

In the last three to six months.

Okay.

Has the yen versus the dollar, has this
pair been any consolidation, reversal,

or is it in a trending environment?

Clearly it's been in a
trending environment.

So now think about what this does.

We've highlighted the markets that have
the largest degree of displacement.

It's clearly discerned.

We're looking at a weekly chart here.

Okay.

Once you do this or the weekly
chart, you can just quickly,

easily toggle out to a monthly.

I just like seeing it on a weekly chart
first and you can just see the same

thing being displayed on a monthly.

So we have displacement in here.

Okay.

The idea is.

We have the market wanting
to go out of a consolidation.

Now, when we say, why am I
saying three to six months?

Because in the last three months
there's going to be consolidation.

Why, what are we looking at?

What are we looking there?

Why did I say three months?

What's that?

What's the significance
behind three to six months?

Well, six months away from today.

That's about how far back I want
to use for determining what the

probable direction is going forward.

When we use, if the data ranges, we
look back the last 60 trading days.

Okay.

That's basically incorporating
the last three months, even

though it's not 90 days.

Okay.

Looking back in the last 60 days, you'll
be able to see where the liquidity pools

are and what APTA data ranges would be.

Um, most likely targeted what liquidity
pools, what voices need to be filled, what

all highs need to be violated or retest.

World.

Lowe's all those ideas.

And with breakers above and below
the marketplace, all these ideas,

you're going to still use them on
the monthly and weekly timeframe.

But when we look back for
the last three months, okay.

What that will help you do is it'll
frame the, not as high as probability

that you would see if you look back to
the last six months, like this is the

range I like to see, but if we go back
just three months to say it's like, Okay.

That's still indicating a swing or
trending model, but if you go back

into the other pairs, like the, all
the, say, we cut that in half here.

It still shows us what consolidation.

So by looking at the last three
months, are we in consolidate?

We have it's left at three
months consolidation.

We may be on the move and we
have to watch it and see if it

breaks out above and all high.

We don't want to see a
tree back into the range.

We want to see it.

Keep on finding new buying net.

Good.

That will give us the swing trading setup.

We'll wait for a scenario to transpire on
a daily chart, and then we'll take action.

You'll look at the dollar yen.

Okay.

If we go back and say, this
is looking back to three.

We have this range in here.

Okay.

We dropped down into a daily timeframe.

There's a couple swing
trades in this, in this pair.

They're in there in this chart.

Okay.

You have one disorder block
it, trades down into it.

Closes in the range.

There's a swing trade right there.

Now I know what you're thinking, but
Michael, I want to buy down here.

Well, there's other patterns and
techniques that we use for that, but this

model for swing trading, we're looking
for things that are already in alignment.

We already have indications that
the market wants to go higher.

This pair is under a
trending profile on a weekly.

It's wanting to go higher.

We already identified that the monthly and
weekly has a bearish order block, which is

up in here, which is what it reached for.

Okay.

This buy in here is a swing tree because
it retraces back down and it has yet to

fulfill its hard timeframe, objective
or trade to its monthly and weekly PDA.

This is a swing trade.

The duration is two weeks or less.

This is a daily chart.

You can see that transpires here.

You're not going to get a million
swing traits, but you're going to

get ones that give you really high
probability setups and low risk.

And you're gonna get instant
feedback you're gonna know

right away, whether they're.

Y there should be sensitivity at
that level with directions should

be focusing on and in between all
this you'll do short-term trades.

And when short-term trades are in between
setups you'll do day trades, or you

won't do J trades if you're not a day
trader, but in between long-term position

trades, you'll do swing trades, short-term
trades and day trades, if you're okay.

And for those are action hounds, you'll
scalp, while all these things are gone.

All of this stuff will mesh, but you
have to take a step back and say,

okay, how many, how many times can you
buy in here on a swing trading model?

This is the classic scenario because
you have an unfulfilled objective and

there was nothing up here that would
indicate willingness to go lower.

The buy only.

The back of the end notes on your notes
for, uh, um, institutional order flow.

And you'll see that we should be
finding support at every down candle.

We see that whether they're buying yes.

And it quickly moves away.

Did it take out the candles?

It does here on this candle.

Okay.

Well, what can I do?

What can I do next?

Well, you have all these
three candles here.

This is now all one bull shorter
block down, down, down after this.

They've taken out this four blocks high.

Okay.

So it means you can be a buyer.

When the trades back down into this three
bar formation, it's this one series of

three down candles or shorter box because
smart money's buying in a down move.

You split that range in half.

That's your mean threshold at
the immune threshold and above

to the high that's where you're
looking to buy anywhere in there.

And here's your return back to it.

Now you're looking for institutional
levels in that frame and entry.

So you can be a buyer here where
you can buy, be a buyer here.

That's it.

There's no other swing trades.

This pair has no other swing trade setups.

Outside of those two, there
are short-term trades.

There are nature aids, but that's it.

There's no other way.

Now, you're looking at this and thinking,
but this is chasing price, Michael,

this is, this is buying near the highs.

No, this is buying in the
middle of an unfulfilled range.

You got to look at the monthly chart.

You got to understand that this
Marfan weekly chart had reasons as we

despair, disclosing the mentorship.

We're good to go up to those levels on the
monthly and weekly chart for a dollar yen.

So while this would be looked at.

Buying near the high, if you're just
looking at a daily chart and again,

it will be true, but the weekly chart

had this range back here, the close
in this last up candle bear, shorter

block, but avoid in here figured out
you got all those were unfiltered.

And price needs to go higher once it
closed in that range here to wick to

the open that's when you had some,
uh, retracement of any measure.

So when you see price in these
hard timeframe, consolidations,

that means they're some way.

A payer that is in a training environment.

And there's going to be times when
the dollars trending all the other

currencies are going to be trending
and maybe one or two will be in health

consolidation that in itself, that's
what we'll talk about in less than

three will present opportunities.

Remember the market makers will hold
payers and consolidation and let other

payers rally to manipulate the majors.

And by manipulating the majors, that's
how they control the crosses like

Euro pound, Euro, Japanese yen, pound.

Yeah.

Or these exotics like, uh,
well, I don't even know.

I don't treat them so much.

I couldn't think of the top of my head,
what they would be, but are the yen.

That's a pair.

I don't like to trade either, but I
know there's a lot of people out there

that like it, I just don't trade it.

But nonetheless, um, in summary, the
dollar index on the weekly chart,

if you look at what we see here on
the last three, six months for this

pair, if you take a look at the last
three to six months for this one,

Has the dollar index been in
a consolidation or a training

environment, training environment.

So if we see the market making
higher highs and higher lows,

we're in retracement here could be.

But we are looking at
a trending environment.

Nonetheless, it's not having a difficult
time moving outside of its it's, uh,

small consolidations in rain ranges.

So it's me and willingness to go higher.

Contrast that with Euro.

You think consolidation couple that with
the dollar index it's bullish on dollar.

So we should be what can't
really swing trade Euro.

But.

There's a preview.

This means that you can be a short-term
trader on Euro dollar, and you

could be looking to do what with it.

You could sell it because you have
up movement in dollar index while

the Euro dollar isn't consolidation.

So it's underlying strength
in the dollar, which would be

weakness on the part of the.

Dollar.

So, and that's why you see, even
though in this large consolidation,

every big, significant move has
always been on a black candle

statement down in very little.

And it takes a lot of time
for this pair to trade higher.

So in summary, I want you to think
like this, this is some homework

for you today, and it won't
take you beyond today to do it.

I want you to look at the.

The relationship to the payers that
we've outlined that are in trending

environments on the weekly chart.

Couple that with the payers or
currencies that are in consolidation

and go through the last three to six
months and share on the form, your

observations about what setups, if
at all occurred on a swing trading

basis, that means you can't drop them.

Below a daily chart don't do
anything less than a daily chart.

Cause we haven't started talking
about entry patterns, I think for four

hour yet, but make some observations
about what you see in relationship

to this pattern or viewpoint, because
this is what you want to look for.

Um, as, okay.

I'll just say it like this
as a fund trader, this is one

of the filtering processes.

They look for pairs to have a
willingness to want to move.

Okay.

I don't need moving averages.

Moving averages were a crutch for
those in the free, free tutorial stuff.

But all you're doing is you're looking
for the evidence that the market is in

consolidation or that it's trending.

If it's trending, it's obvious.

If it's not obvious, it's consulted.

If it's in consolidation, anticipate
reversal, but wait for the consistent, uh,

the confirmation that it's already moved
out and because of the long-term chart,

we don't care that we're waiting for it
to break out and give a confirmation.

If you go back to the, uh, yen
we got here, like to do again,

go down to a daily chart.

The newer trader or the less experienced
trader in our group that would be

looking at this saying, okay, well, if
I bought here, that's really not that

exciting because I want to buy here.

Okay.

Or I want to be buying down here.

That's other setups as other scenarios.

That's other conditions.

Okay.

Swing trading is highest
probable direction.

When the buying should be
occurring, you're buying.

The drawdown is very little
it's timeliness is impactful.

It means you get immediate feedback.

If it's a strong swing trade and you
have these conditions, you will not

sit around waiting for profitability.

It will move in your favor instantly
because more money is going to be piled

in behind that level than just you.

You're not, you're not
even on the radar screen.

So if we see these
conditions like this and you.

Okay.

If you bought anywhere in this area
here, we'll just say we, we used about

the middle point of that, that candle.

That would be a low, the post comes
in at 1 11 67, opening this 1, 12 66.

So we'll just say 12.

We went along at one 12 big figure.

Okay.

Once, while big figure what good
grief over here at the high you're

already at 200 plus pips, 286.

I told you that that's the scenario
you're looking for 200 to 500 pips.

That's what this, that's
what these setups give you.

You don't need a lot of them over
this, over the course of a year.

Every pair is going to give you something.

If you wait for it, it will be there, but
it's not going to be every single time.

There's a set up basis to the dollar.

There's going to be some give and take.

And that's why you want to have
to go through all the major.

Okay like this, and you're
gonna find that out.

If you hold onto this thing for two
weeks, this is, uh, this will be the

day the entering or this day here.

1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10,
11, 12, 13, 14, thereabouts.

It's two weeks.

Think about it, folks, this model
is not an everyday sin situation.

It's a high probability
swing trading model.

That means you're looking for the
highest probable direction to trade

where, you know, the institutional
sponsorship will be behind your idea.

And guess what if it takes this Orbach?

And you get stopped out.

You get immediate feedback.

That means you have to do what you
have to drop back to a weekly idea.

Go back to APDA on the weekly
chart because the daily broke down.

So where's the next level and the
weekly chart to look for support.

If that gives way, well, we'll
probably reversed and then we'll

wait for a rally up and then we'll
sell into a bear shorter block.

You'll see that.

There's no reason to fear taking a loss.

Everything will be systematic.

It's.

But don't think that you have
to have the lowest low and the

highest high in swing trading.

You're getting the meat in between.

That's all you're doing.

You're getting that lion's portion
of the flesh and that's all you need.

If you just did this a couple of
times a year, you'll be blown away.

Every expectation you're ahead
for trading because you're

being able to do more with less.

And that's what really trading is.

You want to be doing very little
risk, very little trading,

but having huge profitability
or probability in your first.

And this model is going
to help you do that.

So we're gonna be using a lot of
the things we talked about in the

higher timeframe, macro analysis,
to frame the ideas, using what

we just disclosed here also.

And it'll build very specific ideas
about, uh, swing trading and you'll know

exactly when you should be swing trading.

And if it's not there,
don't worry about it.

Don't push it on for.

Just wait.

Or when we start going into the short-term
trading, then you'll know what you

should be doing there because you will
have a lot more trade setups with the

short term trading, because you have one
every single week, every single week.

And every, I want to get
into the day trading stuff.

There is a trade, every
single trading day.

If you're a day trader, when you
use the model that we teach, and

it's always going to compliment the
things that we're teaching here, just

like this is going to compliment the
teaching we have for macro analysis.

Every discipline is supportment
to the one we just didn't get.

Swing trading is going to be subordinate
to what we learned in January.

And then short-term trade is going
to be subordinate to what we teach

here in swing trading, because
in-between swings, they're smaller

swings because price is fractal.

So in between this buying opportunity
in this high, we can only really

see two favorable entries.

This one, and this one, apart from that.

There's no swing trading entries
based on my rules, but there is

one to two more short term trading.

And in day trading, you got every up
candle in here as a potential by so

you'll know how immediately, no matter
what asset class, whether it's a metal

of a commodity, a bond, if it's a
currency, a stock, it does not matter.

You're immediately in, in less than 10
minutes using every timeframe from monthly

down to, uh, a four hour timeframe.

Or if you're going to be day trader
down to a 15 minute timeframe, you'll

know how to slice and dice that chart
and be able to frame out whatever

type of trader you want to be.

And you'll know where the next move is
going to be in relationship to that.

Is it poised to move as a
swing trade if it's not?

Okay, no problem.

Let me drop down to a short term trade.

If there's something there, I'll take it.

If it's not okay, where's
it at in reference to date?

And I say that because it's not to say
that like the Euro is in a consolidation,

so therefore don't trade Euro.

No, no, no, it's not.

I'm not saying that.

I'm just saying in terms of a swing
trade, you can't use that pair right

now because it doesn't have the
willingness to want to move yet.

It will.

And when it moves, it's going
to move a lot because it's

being held in consolidation.

And when this thing blows out, whether
higher or lower land, we're going to

have a lot of opportunities in this thing
because they been holding it for me.

Look at what he did here.

We're here.

It's been a consolidation and a move.

Huge move.

We're going to see another one of that.

Okay.

It's this winding up.

Just wait for it.

Don't force it.

Do not try to push yourself into a
trade just because it can't give you a

swing trade in the Euro dollar doesn't
mean you can't take short-term trades.

Look at w I mean, we've been talking
about the Euro dollar going higher.

You could be a day trader
in a year, a dollar.

Okay.

So there's just plenty of opportunities.

There's always ways to make money, but
I have to give you the mindset for each

individual discipline of trading for that
month and not show you other timeframes

because it will more, your life.

You don't want to be
focusing on all that stuff.

And you'll see, as we go through each
one, compliments the next and you'll have

a complete view of how the marketplace
works, what drives price and how the

find, the opportunities, just like that.

It won't take about this a few minutes
in any timeframe you'll know right

away what you should be doing, but
we start on a higher timeframe to

frame out where is the large flows?

Because if they're going to be a lot
of money pouring in behind a buying

opportunity, you'll see it in the.

If it's not going to be there and it's
gonna be in consolidation, no problem.

Go to the next pairs and you can
quickly see how the contrast between

the New Zealand dollar and the yen.

They were paramount across the board
over the last three, six months, because

they were unwilling to stay in a range.

They were pushed out, they were driven,
and if they drive one direction over

the other, while other markets are being
held in consolidation, that tells you

where the money is, they're buying up.

And they're buying up.

Oh, I'm sorry.

They're selling in.

And they're buying up Kiwi and
you can see it Dolly again, rally.

That means the Japanese Yen's declining
and you can go into a future starting.

You get to see that too.

But the point is, before we get into the
million dollar swing trade set up, you

have to have this understanding, knowing
that the market that is poised to have.

Movement behind it.

This is how the fun started.

This is their first filtering process.

Is there a displacement that pushes
the market one side over the other?

If there is it's evidence on the
hard timeframe and if it's not,

they won't go into that market.

They're going to go into the ones
that have a willingness to move

and look what happened in the end.

Look how many pips this thing has moved.

I mean, we had a high.

And this thing almost moved, uh,
like 2000 pips, almost 2000 pips.

That's a lot in relationship to
that of say a Aussie dollar, a

little wimpy, 600 pips in your.

Like 900 pips, something like that on the
downside, something like close to that.

And then you had the pound dollar.

We're had thousands of pips,

New Zealand,

that thousand pips.

So, which pair are you going
to trade as a swing trader?

Are you gonna be looking for payers that
are in consolidation or ones that are

making clear discernible patterns higher
in an uptrend and keep breaking old highs

and supporting price at old down candles?

That means you see
institutional order flow.

It means the funds are pouring money
in every time they do this, more buying

is going to take place reverse with.

Every time that there was an up candle in
the, uh, British pound up in here, right?

For the down mood, they returned
back to the here on this spike

out here, and it rallied lower.

Everything that we look for for PDAs
you use on these timeframes, but you

start with filtering out whether the
market is wanting to move in a trend or.

If it's in consolidation notice
I didn't pull any trend lines up.

I didn't pull up any
kind of moving averages.

I didn't put any kind of indicators.

All we're looking for is a
simple profile and it's simple.

I can put my nine year old right in front
of the chart and ask him which one's

going sideways and which one's moving
up or down and he'll be able to do it.

So think about it.

If you ever struggle, if you have a small
child, take them to your computer and

say, okay, inside this box, would you
say this is going up down or go inside?

And the answer they give you, that's it?

This is that simple.

And just look at the payer, study them.

Okay.

And look at the relationships between
other currencies that they're paired

with every available currency pair.

And look at what's happened
over the last three to six

months in relationship to that.

And again, I'm not trying to convince
you or talk you into doing a major.

Across as like a pound yen or all
the, and I'm not trying to do that,

but I just want you to see how, even
though I don't, as your mentor trade

those pairs, you made like to do that.

And there's many opportunities throughout
the year that you'll be able to trade

those and I'll give you a rules for it.

But for me, I just don't get the ch I
don't get the tax treatment trading them.

So it's not worth the extra
step because you got to do the

analysis twice when you trade this.

Which to me it's not that big of a
deal, but to me, I just like looking

at a dollar index and then looking at
the dollar crosses, and then it's done.

I need to know I have a trader.

I don't have one, but as far
as swing trading, this is it.

This is your first stepping stone.

This is what you do.

You look for this, and this will
frame out what pairs are really ideal

for you to trade as a swing trade.

If it doesn't fit this criteria,
it's not a swing trade.

It's just that simple.

You got to go to a lower timeframe.

Discipline.

That means short-term.

Or day it for scalp.

It plenty of scalps in Europe,
plenty of day trades in Europe.

And there's a couple short term
trades in there, not in swing trading.

So I'm going to close it here.

Wish you all a very pleasant afternoon.

And again, I'm going to be
looking for, uh, as may or S Q a.

If you could please create a.

In our forum for this lesson today.

Uh, just title it as a,
um, what would we title it?

Higher timeframe swinging.

Model confirmation.

We'll just do it like that
or something to that effect.

And then guys can, uh, post your
observations there and there's, some of

you are just going to wait and see what
everybody else does and then look and see

what they did and then come to agreement
or disagreement about it, but do the work.

Okay.

Really?

When we do these individual, uh,
The disciplines each month for you

to learn, I'm going to push you
into a form of investigating it.

I do not want you to take what I show
in a PowerPoint slide or a video.

Okay.

And take that as the gospel.

That's not how you're going to learn this.

You're going to appreciate it more
when you go in gradually, as I tell

you, look, look for this and you'll see
it, look for this and you'll see it.

And when you find it before I start
going into greater detail about it,

when my, when I do the teachings, it'll
be like, oh yeah, this makes perfect.

I see that.

I know exactly what it's talking about.

And then once you have that, you
graduate to a higher level understanding

and a greater appreciation for
what you're spending your money on.

Not just your time, that way you'll
know by the end of this month,

you'll know exactly what you're
looking for as a swing trader.

It will be absolutely certain what you're
doing and you'll know when not the trade.

That's the most important lesson.

Don't force a swing trade.

If the conditions aren't
there, think about it.

If we are a day trader, you know,
to, if I'm a bullish person, I

want to be buying at the OpenTable.

Well, why would I want to be selling it?

If I'm bullish, think about it.

It's the same thing.

Don't force a, an opinion or a
viewpoint or a discipline of trading

in a condition that doesn't favor it.

If the market's not predisposed to go in
a training environment higher or lower.

Try to swing trade.

This is what beats traders up.

Or they get into an idea and they take
a swing trade and they get in and they

see initial feedback that looks positive.

They have a little bit of profit and they
marry the idea and they're on Facebook.

They're on Forex factory.

You're on all the forums are on Twitter.

I'm going to kill this one and
all of a sudden the reverses them.

And then you don't hear about them.

They go quiet because they got beat
up and it turned on them because

it wasn't a favorable market.

Yeah.

This is such an easy
filter, but nobody does it.

They don't think this way, but I'm
telling you as a large fund trader,

this is the first thing they do.

They look for a training environment
filter, or if it's in consolidation,

if it's in consolidation, they can not
put money into this until it breaks

out and moves because that's their,
that's their, that's their business.

They have to be involved.

They have to be involved in a training.

Because that's what 95% of
all large fund models are.

They're trending.

So if they see this, they're
not going to see this as an

opportunity to pour money into it.

They're going to put their money in
where it's already moving, because it's

already showing a million to, to run
and they want to run with the bulls

or they want to run with the bears.

They do not want to swim in a
small little pond like this.

It ain't going to move
there's no, there's no stream.

There's no.

So you have to go where
the large funds to go.

And just as a simple little procedure
that no one looks in their charts

for, but this is exactly what goes on.

Then you'll be able to find where
all the big money is being pushed

in and where it's going to sleep.

So with that guys, I'm going to
wish you good luck, good trading.

And I will see you tomorrow.

We're going to have another session
at 9:30 AM and we're going to be doing

the homework for the New Zealand.

Presentation I did in
lesson one for this month.

So until then, folks, I will
talk with you all today.

In the afternoon recap, I'll
send the charts up and all that

business, but again, tomorrow
9:30 AM Eastern standard time.

New York time.

We'll have another session.

If you haven't done your
homework for the New Zealand

portion, please try to do that.

Um, if not, don't, uh, watch
this video till you do it.

Okay.

No, no, no.

It's, don't watch tomorrow's
video until you do that homework.

Good luck.

Good training.