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Welcome back folks.
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This is teaching number eight of a series
of eight for the month of November, 2016.
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ICT mentorship.
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We're really talking about false tops
and bottom patterns as it relates
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to classical head and shoulders.
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Now, Haddon shoulders pattern is
typically seen with a price high that
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trades a small little retracement,
and then it creates a higher high,
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and then it retraces back lower.
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And then it creates another level.
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Price peak or short-term high.
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And then connecting those three
successive peaks in price.
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We classically referred to that as the
neckline and classical support resistance
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ideas are seen here, where is that?
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Neckline is broken many times.
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You'll see it retrace or pull back up to
that neck line and then sell off again.
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Um, in the form of selecting
targets, you can measure the range
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from the neck line up to the.
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Or the highest peak and subtract
that range from the neckline,
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once price breaks below it.
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And they'll give you a
reasonable price objective.
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Now, the problem with this pattern.
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Okay.
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It's because it's taught in all of
our retail books and such every trader
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out there when he first get into their
charts, they're always looking for
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these types of patterns, but generally
price will form these genuinely at
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intermediate or long-term highs only.
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And due to the low understanding of
most retail traders, they tend to seek
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these classic topping patterns on lower
timeframes and many times at a significant
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low in price, but they marry the pattern.
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The opposite is referred to as an
inverted head and shoulders pattern.
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And this is a false batter,
false bottom pattern.
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We're going to be teaching in here.
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So we're not really
teaching these classical.
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Uh, they can be found on the internet.
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I'm not gonna teach that, but what
I'm actually gonna tell you is
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how you can capitalize on these
patterns when they appear in charts.
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And our hard time-frame premise indicates
the opposite direction is unfolding, but
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an inverted head and shoulders pattern
is typically seen with a, uh, short
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term low that's met with a lower, low
than it makes a higher short-term low.
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And you connect the.
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Hi, is that form around those
three successive lower lows.
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And we refer to that as the neckline
eventually should price trade above that
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neck line classically you would expect
a pullback in price or retracement back
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down to the neck line and then advance
me up to a target and the range from
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the neck line down to the lowest low of
those three lows added to the neck line.
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Once the price breaks through
it, that would give you a
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reasonable upside objective.
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Now again much in the same way,
generally price will form needs.
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Genuinely at intermediate
or long-term lows.
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And again much, like we said, with the
regular classical head and George's
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pattern due to the low understanding of
most retail traders, they go into the
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lower timeframes and they start looking
for this classic bottom pattern on lower
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timeframe charts, and many times at a
significant high end price, but much like
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you probably done when you first started
as a trader, you get these textbooks and
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you get these ideas and you go in, you.
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The understanding of what you learned
out of the books into the charts.
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So therefore you learned about a
head and shoulders pattern should
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therefore there must be a head
and shoulders pattern right now.
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So let's go in there and trade it.
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00:04:13,935 --> 00:04:17,144
And unfortunately it doesn't
always equate to profitability.
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Uh, when I first started as a futures
trader, this was one of the patterns that
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were really promoted hard, uh, because
it's the idea that you want to catch
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a high and you want to catch a bottom.
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Picking tops and bottoms.
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It's one of the worst games to
play accesses a nutrient cause
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number one, even seasoned pros.
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Don't do it.
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Okay.
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We don't, we don't pick tops and bottoms.
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Uh, we can trade with rather impressing
you the accuracy and, and catching
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significant intermediate term willows
and short-term lows and highs.
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But as it relates to long-term tops
and bottoms, I try to avoid that.
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And I actually promote the idea of doing
the same thing in your own trading.
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Tried not to do that, but one of
the coolest things I've learned
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by going through institutional
order flow studies and watching
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how interbank pricing is done.
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00:05:04,965 --> 00:05:07,335
It allows me to go in and
actually see these patterns
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when they form in price charts.
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00:05:09,255 --> 00:05:13,005
Um, if I have a, uh, indication that
the price is actually going to go
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higher and I see a head and shoulders
pattern, which would be a false.
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In my opinion, but in the charts, the
retail will see that as a top point,
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conversely, looking at it, inverted head
and shoulders, which would be classically
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viewed as a bullish pattern and price.
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Um, if I see that happening when the
market is actually bearish, um, I would
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be looking to go short and where we
see the neck line, let's go back to the
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standard head and shoulders pattern.
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When you look at the neck line, um, what
I see there is an opportunity to be long.
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Once the neck line is broken
on the downside, especially
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if we are in a institutionally
primed bullish environment.
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That means if we're in a long-term
or even term low, and it forms a.
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Successive three peaks and price moving
higher, which would be classically
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viewed as a head and shoulders pattern.
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Um, chartist, pure charters
would see that as a, uh, barest
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indication, especially new newbie
traders or less informed traders.
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I like seeing when price does that,
because to me, it's a retailer.
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And marketing is actually, uh, designing
classical chart patterns in price where
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you can actually get tripped up thinking
just because you saw he had George's
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formation and the neck lines broken.
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Um, when that neck line is broken, um,
I don't see that pullback as right.
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Resuming lower or a new selling scenario.
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I see that as a turtle soup long,
that took out two previous lows
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where the clean lows were there.
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I look at that as a buying opportunity.
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So I'll buy the sell stops below those
equal lows or where the neckline is.
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And then I'll look for the head or
the highest peak to be violated.
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And I'll try to pair up my long exits
with the biceps above the highest.
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00:07:05,099 --> 00:07:08,789
In this pattern, and that would
be my first objective, the
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inverted head and shoulders.
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I would do the opposite.
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If I'm looking for price action
to be bearish, as a higher
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timeframe would indicate.
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And I see a low with a lower, low, and
a higher low, which would be deemed
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as a inverted head and shoulders.
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I don't see that as a bullish
breakout above the neckline.
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I'm actually looking at
that as a run-on by stops.
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And I'm going to look to go short there.
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And not expect to see price go higher, but
in fact, below out those equal highs and
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then make a run for the sell starts below.
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What would be deemed as the head
on this panel would be the lowest,
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low, and most recent price action.
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Um, you can actually take your first
profit at the right shoulder on both
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these patterns, uh, respectively,
but, uh, let's take a look at a couple
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of chart examples, and you can see
what this parent looks like in price.
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Okay.
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Thanks.
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We're looking at a daily chart
and the British pound USD or.
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Um, what you take a look at this
down candle rate before the up
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move with consolidated for awhile,
uh, price came down and hit that
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same order block right here.
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Okay.
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Closed in the fair value gap between the
high to midway point of the candle and
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look at this candle right next to it.
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Price came down and respected that range.
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Okay, right in here.
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Didn't go any farther than that.
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And then on this day
here, it's August 10th.
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We traded through to down candle
making this a bull shorter
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block, right in here, seven, this
candle's high down to its opening.
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It becomes sensitive to be about.
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Right there in the high
comes in at 1 55, 46.
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So on this day, here we trade down into
it on the 12th of August, 2015, shade
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right down into the body of that down
candor, which is a bullshitter block.
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Now that's bullish on a dealing.
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So let's take a look at a
hourly chart that same time.
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August 12th here, we have to market
aching, a high, a higher high, and a lower
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high, and we have two equal lows in here.
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So we have what we have a
head and shoulders pattern.
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Retail traders are going to
see that as a selling scenario.
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So they're going to look for a break
of this neck line and then take the
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range from the high down to that neck
line and subtract that and that'll give
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them their objective for going short.
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Okay.
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So we have that range.
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And we can duplicate that and give
ourselves our downside objective
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for the retail minded crowd.
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So retail is going to think this breakdown
here is going to lead them down to 1
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55 or thereabouts in this range here.
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So retail is going to expect a range
expansion down to a low of 1 54 95.
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00:10:32,580 --> 00:10:36,030
We did not expect that because on
the daily chart, we're expecting the
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00:10:36,030 --> 00:10:37,650
bullshitter bot to send prices higher.
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So while we see a, in a regular
head and shoulders pattern, which
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would be classical bearishness in
a part of price action study, as
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it relates to institutional order
flow, we're looking at the run below
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these loads in here as a run-on.
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So we're looking at the market to
go below here to pair up orders, to
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go long for those individuals that
want to have a sell stop down here.
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That's already long they're trailing
stop loss is going to be in a form
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of cell stop because the market
moved most recently has been high.
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We see this move below these equal lows
as an opportunity to buy those cell stops.
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Those willing cell stops or flood the
market when the market trades below here.
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So now we have a lot of liquidity.
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Remember that market efficiency paradigm.
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We see liquidity here in the form of
gone long, and we're going to be looking
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for objective up here to take profits.
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So we could be a buyer at
1 55 50 and look for 56 20.
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I move above this high 56, 20
as our objective or 70 pips, the
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market runs 1, 2, 3, 4 more times
below that low gathering up the
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cell stops and then expansion two
pairs up the buy stops above 56, 20.
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And ultimately you could see a
nice little, little pullback here.
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00:12:02,505 --> 00:12:02,835
Okay.
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00:12:03,105 --> 00:12:08,985
So that's an objective of using the
head and shoulders pattern again.
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What retail would expect and using
higher timeframe, institutional
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00:12:13,484 --> 00:12:17,444
order flow on a daily chart, reading
it as the banks would, let's go
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back out to that daily chart.
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You can see what it did as a
result, and here's that expansion.
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00:12:21,614 --> 00:12:24,244
And it's not much of a move, but
that you don't need much of a move.
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We understand what you're looking for.
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Okay.
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00:12:26,025 --> 00:12:27,135
We have another example here.
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This is the daily or the British
pound USDS the down candle
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right before this big move.
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00:12:34,260 --> 00:12:35,219
Equal highs in here.
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00:12:35,510 --> 00:12:37,500
There would have been by
stops above these highs.
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00:12:38,250 --> 00:12:41,880
This rally up takes out those
by stops and it comes all up and
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00:12:41,880 --> 00:12:43,890
closes in its range all up here.
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00:12:43,890 --> 00:12:50,099
So this is liquidity voyage closed
in less up candle closes it in, but
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00:12:50,099 --> 00:12:53,939
more importantly, these stats were
targeted with this down candle.
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00:12:54,420 --> 00:12:59,579
That means that this down Canada was able
to order block, which is used to break the
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00:12:59,579 --> 00:13:01,020
buy stops that were in the marketplace.
200
00:13:01,995 --> 00:13:04,935
So when price trades below it here,
when price comes back up to it
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00:13:04,935 --> 00:13:06,675
here, we're inside of a breaker.
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00:13:06,795 --> 00:13:11,625
That's a bearish environment,
1 50, 3 45 to 1 50, 3 50.
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00:13:12,495 --> 00:13:13,035
In that area.
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00:13:13,065 --> 00:13:19,545
We're looking for a reason to expect
some kind of, uh, uh bearishness but
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00:13:20,145 --> 00:13:22,725
there's going to be on a lower timeframe.
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00:13:23,565 --> 00:13:25,215
Retail we'll see patterns like this.
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00:13:25,215 --> 00:13:25,755
We have a low.
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00:13:27,345 --> 00:13:29,865
A lower, low, higher, low.
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00:13:30,435 --> 00:13:32,175
This is an inverted head
and shoulders pattern.
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00:13:33,165 --> 00:13:36,555
If you draw your neck line on the chart.
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00:13:40,065 --> 00:13:40,425
Okay.
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00:13:41,085 --> 00:13:46,455
That's the high up here and we're going
to draw what would be considered the
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00:13:47,115 --> 00:13:48,615
inverted head and shoulders, neck line
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00:13:52,275 --> 00:13:55,185
connecting these two levels here.
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00:13:55,980 --> 00:13:58,770
And the difference would be from
the low up to this neck line.
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00:13:59,160 --> 00:14:00,209
And once we break above it,
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00:14:06,670 --> 00:14:08,020
price trades above it here,
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00:14:12,069 --> 00:14:17,290
necklines broken stackable or
heres would be, would be tired.
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00:14:18,585 --> 00:14:22,905
So selling up here on a break above
the neck line, not looking at that
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00:14:22,905 --> 00:14:27,105
as bullishness and return for a
higher prices, but looking for it
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00:14:27,105 --> 00:14:28,365
to sell off, getting above there.
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00:14:28,365 --> 00:14:33,015
So we would look for that run to
sell into the buy stops above this
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00:14:33,015 --> 00:14:34,755
high here and above this high here.
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00:14:35,235 --> 00:14:37,275
That's why I would expect to
see some bears in this year.
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00:14:37,275 --> 00:14:39,555
And then we would wait for
a run below these lows here.
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00:14:40,065 --> 00:14:41,265
It does give a lot more than that.
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00:14:42,135 --> 00:14:43,574
Nonetheless, it's not a bad little trade.
228
00:14:44,084 --> 00:14:51,045
Uh, 10, 20, 30, 40, 50, 60, 70, 80 pips,
or more running them low over here.
229
00:14:52,334 --> 00:14:53,444
Let's go back out to the daily.
230
00:14:56,604 --> 00:14:56,875
Okay.
231
00:14:56,875 --> 00:14:58,915
And we're going to look
up at this high up here.
232
00:15:00,474 --> 00:15:01,734
Price trades up into it here.
233
00:15:03,234 --> 00:15:05,104
We're going to use the
low or the last option.
234
00:15:06,640 --> 00:15:08,260
Right here and the body of the candle.
235
00:15:08,260 --> 00:15:10,210
You could see the trades
up into that as well.
236
00:15:10,900 --> 00:15:19,120
And we're gonna look up
at the 18th on October.
237
00:15:19,840 --> 00:15:20,050
Okay.
238
00:15:20,050 --> 00:15:27,370
So we have here's the, uh, 15th
creating a head and shoulders inverted.
239
00:15:27,370 --> 00:15:29,050
So that would be viewed as bullishness.
240
00:15:31,030 --> 00:15:31,900
So if we get above.
241
00:15:37,295 --> 00:15:41,645
That high, we can be a seller because
we would expect those buys stops
242
00:15:41,645 --> 00:15:45,755
to be viewed as breakout artists
on, in inverted head and shoulders.
243
00:15:45,785 --> 00:15:49,175
They're going to see that as a
bullish pattern, we're going to
244
00:15:49,175 --> 00:15:50,315
look at it as a Bayer's pattern.
245
00:15:50,315 --> 00:15:51,845
We're going to be
completely opposite of that.
246
00:15:52,475 --> 00:15:53,435
Now you can do two things.
247
00:15:53,435 --> 00:15:55,535
You can use this here, or you can
use the bodies of the candles.
248
00:15:55,535 --> 00:15:57,845
Like I teach, uh, where
the most volume is.
249
00:15:58,205 --> 00:15:59,735
So this is the highest body of the candle.
250
00:15:59,735 --> 00:16:01,415
So a 55 0 2 would be.
251
00:16:02,430 --> 00:16:06,630
If we get above it,
price trades to it here.
252
00:16:06,689 --> 00:16:09,240
So you can be a seller above 55 0 2.
253
00:16:10,110 --> 00:16:14,939
So 55 0 2 is your area of being a bearish.
254
00:16:15,480 --> 00:16:19,290
We do not look at that as a breakout
and then wait for a pullback for new
255
00:16:19,290 --> 00:16:21,630
higher prices looking to see it so off.
256
00:16:21,719 --> 00:16:28,949
And there's your entry on the buy
staffs at 55 0 2 and the neck line.
257
00:16:29,730 --> 00:16:30,780
I'm sorry, the head down here.
258
00:16:31,845 --> 00:16:37,475
Your objective would be to
cover below that low right here.
259
00:16:38,495 --> 00:16:40,625
And that happens right there.
260
00:16:43,055 --> 00:16:47,405
And then again, all through here
gives you an opportunity to cover and
261
00:16:47,405 --> 00:16:52,475
ultimately, uh, runs one more time
above that 55 0 2 level for by stops.
262
00:16:52,655 --> 00:16:56,585
And then again, below what would
be the head playing opportunity
263
00:16:56,585 --> 00:16:58,235
to get, make a handsome profit.
264
00:16:59,550 --> 00:17:05,040
So again, it's you look for the
pattern because retail will look
265
00:17:05,040 --> 00:17:08,639
for the pattern, but you're going
to fade that pattern based on what
266
00:17:08,639 --> 00:17:10,649
you see on a higher timeframe.
267
00:17:10,649 --> 00:17:13,950
So we look for institutional
order for, to justify why this
268
00:17:13,950 --> 00:17:15,119
should be bearish up in here.
269
00:17:15,149 --> 00:17:18,149
We should be looking for a
reason to be selling, not buying.
270
00:17:18,419 --> 00:17:21,419
And if we see inverted head and shoulders
patterns on the lower timeframes,
271
00:17:21,780 --> 00:17:22,859
retail is going to be all over that.
272
00:17:22,859 --> 00:17:24,619
Looking for bullish upside move.
273
00:17:25,740 --> 00:17:27,540
And that's not what you see here at all.
274
00:17:28,500 --> 00:17:31,350
So hopefully you found this
one insightful as well.
275
00:17:31,439 --> 00:17:34,649
Uh, we're going to be attacking a lot
of the retail minded classical chart
276
00:17:34,649 --> 00:17:36,479
patterns throughout this ICT mentorship.
277
00:17:37,080 --> 00:17:41,129
So this is just the beginning
of two that will fall victim to
278
00:17:41,580 --> 00:17:44,340
institutional order flow until next
time we should good luck into you.
24340
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