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These are the user uploaded subtitles that are being translated: 1 00:00:00,330 --> 00:00:00,990 Good afternoon folks. 2 00:00:00,990 --> 00:00:05,190 This is ICT with a market review for October 20th, 2016. 3 00:00:05,820 --> 00:00:06,000 Okay. 4 00:00:06,000 --> 00:00:08,280 Today we have pretty busy economic calendar. 5 00:00:09,480 --> 00:00:13,950 We had retail sales for GBP and during the London session. 6 00:00:14,370 --> 00:00:20,640 And then during the New York session, we had Euro minimum bid rate, and then we 7 00:00:20,640 --> 00:00:22,950 had the big one, the ECB press conference. 8 00:00:23,759 --> 00:00:27,390 Uh, couple that with the Philly fed manufacturing index 9 00:00:27,390 --> 00:00:28,439 and the unemployment claims. 10 00:00:28,740 --> 00:00:32,970 So we had a pretty intense economic counter with lots of high-impact 11 00:00:32,970 --> 00:00:35,640 news spread across the entire day. 12 00:00:36,120 --> 00:00:41,160 Uh, the highlight was for a Euro dollar, obviously, and then later on 13 00:00:41,160 --> 00:00:48,060 nine o'clock in the morning, GBP at a member, uh, speaking as well, uh, 10 14 00:00:48,060 --> 00:00:51,450 o'clock in the morning, we had dollar medium impact existing home sales. 15 00:00:52,919 --> 00:00:56,849 I'm gonna take you for a moment briefly over in a flashback, 16 00:00:57,059 --> 00:00:58,830 but from yesterday's review. 17 00:00:58,919 --> 00:01:01,920 And this is at the three minute and 15 second mark. 18 00:01:02,519 --> 00:01:03,870 So listen carefully. 19 00:01:03,870 --> 00:01:05,670 What I'm talking about in regards to the Euro. 20 00:01:07,700 --> 00:01:08,570 I wasn't near the market. 21 00:01:08,570 --> 00:01:08,960 Couldn't see. 22 00:01:08,960 --> 00:01:13,070 It didn't have anything I could have done to capitalize on it. 23 00:01:13,070 --> 00:01:17,920 But nonetheless, um, I wanna to see a tree up a little bit higher than 24 00:01:17,920 --> 00:01:21,410 about that 1, 10 41, 10 35 to 1 10 40. 25 00:01:21,410 --> 00:01:24,980 That would have been a reason for me to want to get short bear and 26 00:01:24,980 --> 00:01:26,330 then reach for the cell stops here. 27 00:01:26,330 --> 00:01:29,990 If I was going to do anything that demo, just for example purposes for this week. 28 00:01:30,705 --> 00:01:31,035 Okay. 29 00:01:31,035 --> 00:01:36,735 So while the setup didn't form yesterday, uh, on the heels of the ECB 30 00:01:36,735 --> 00:01:40,245 press conference, uh, high-impact news at eight 30 this morning during the 31 00:01:40,245 --> 00:01:43,875 New York session, uh, we're going to take a look at that, uh, Euro dollar 32 00:01:43,875 --> 00:01:48,105 setup, uh, before we get to it, let's briefly go over to the dollar index 33 00:01:48,105 --> 00:01:49,425 and I'll break it all down for you. 34 00:01:50,235 --> 00:01:53,475 Uh, we were looking for a run to 98 55. 35 00:01:54,509 --> 00:01:55,470 Dollar index. 36 00:01:55,500 --> 00:01:59,639 And so far today, uh, we had a high of 98 40, so we're just 37 00:01:59,639 --> 00:02:02,339 15 pips short of the objective. 38 00:02:02,339 --> 00:02:07,889 We were looking for $4 and that's on the basis of these highs up here 39 00:02:07,889 --> 00:02:10,169 with, by stops, resting just above it. 40 00:02:11,490 --> 00:02:13,650 So we're just, uh, just a little bit short of that. 41 00:02:15,090 --> 00:02:19,410 The, uh, the stops that we identified at 97 70 once they were cleared 42 00:02:19,410 --> 00:02:23,519 out, we went into consolidation and during the ECB press conference and 43 00:02:23,519 --> 00:02:29,400 unemployment, uh, numbers, we saw that sweep down one more time, uh, expansion 44 00:02:29,430 --> 00:02:34,380 on the daily range, and it quickly rejected that and made a run on the 45 00:02:34,380 --> 00:02:38,980 buy stops above these highs over here, uh, noticed that we, uh, one only. 46 00:02:40,035 --> 00:02:44,085 Uh, 10, 20 pips or so above that. 47 00:02:44,295 --> 00:02:47,295 So it will be interesting to see if we maintain a willingness 48 00:02:47,295 --> 00:02:48,315 to want to continue up to that. 49 00:02:48,315 --> 00:02:54,705 98, 55, 98, 60 level the Euro. 50 00:02:56,430 --> 00:02:56,790 Okay. 51 00:02:56,790 --> 00:03:01,500 I gave you a specific level, a yesterday's review, the 1 10 40 52 00:03:01,500 --> 00:03:06,570 level, specifically 1 10 35 to 1, 10 40 for a selling opportunity. 53 00:03:07,200 --> 00:03:10,140 And while I didn't really break it down, cause I was kind of 54 00:03:10,680 --> 00:03:12,150 rushing through yesterday's review. 55 00:03:12,260 --> 00:03:15,750 Um, I'm glad I gave you the, uh, the expectation of what 56 00:03:15,750 --> 00:03:16,950 those levels should be offering. 57 00:03:17,550 --> 00:03:21,590 Um, but what you don't see here on the daily chart, we can. 58 00:03:22,530 --> 00:03:27,720 Draw out a little bit more detail relative to the four-hour chart. 59 00:03:32,250 --> 00:03:34,230 And I didn't want to deal with that timeframe. 60 00:03:34,450 --> 00:03:36,779 Let's let's go over here and do this. 61 00:03:43,790 --> 00:03:44,029 Okay. 62 00:03:44,040 --> 00:03:46,769 Which you can see is on the four-hour chart. 63 00:03:49,829 --> 00:03:50,489 We have a. 64 00:03:52,500 --> 00:03:55,050 Bullish candle, right for the down move in this price swing. 65 00:03:55,500 --> 00:04:00,090 So this is an up candle who sells during up candles or up movement. 66 00:04:00,090 --> 00:04:00,930 It's smart money. 67 00:04:01,290 --> 00:04:04,470 The opening on that candle, this the last up candle wars are bear shorter block. 68 00:04:04,480 --> 00:04:06,690 In other words, opening comes in at 1 10 40. 69 00:04:06,690 --> 00:04:09,600 So that's the reason why I said 1 10 40 was a significant level. 70 00:04:09,870 --> 00:04:16,589 Also notice that also has this level coming just above and old high in here. 71 00:04:16,589 --> 00:04:19,870 So we have a level of buy stops here, coupled with an order. 72 00:04:21,000 --> 00:04:22,799 In the bear sense right above it. 73 00:04:22,799 --> 00:04:26,039 So again, the opening price is at 1 10 40. 74 00:04:27,270 --> 00:04:28,260 Can I put this right here? 75 00:04:28,650 --> 00:04:29,099 Okay. 76 00:04:29,190 --> 00:04:29,969 At 1 10 40. 77 00:04:29,969 --> 00:04:35,099 Now today, the actual intraday high comes in and exactly 1 10 40. 78 00:04:35,729 --> 00:04:39,370 So it's just one more thing for your notes. 79 00:04:41,190 --> 00:04:46,710 . Reflection on these big, high impact news that releases the ECB press release. 80 00:04:47,130 --> 00:04:50,040 Uh, anytime there is these high impact news. 81 00:04:50,880 --> 00:04:51,360 Yes. 82 00:04:51,360 --> 00:04:54,300 They can go beyond where you think they may go. 83 00:04:54,420 --> 00:04:54,780 Okay. 84 00:04:54,780 --> 00:04:59,220 But many times they still fall in, in line with what we've anticipated 85 00:04:59,220 --> 00:05:00,540 in terms of institutional order flow. 86 00:05:00,840 --> 00:05:02,730 Uh, it went right to 1 10 40. 87 00:05:02,730 --> 00:05:04,020 Here's the intraday price action. 88 00:05:04,700 --> 00:05:06,120 This is the eight 30 relief. 89 00:05:07,080 --> 00:05:07,349 Okay. 90 00:05:07,349 --> 00:05:09,270 Price goes right up to the 1 10 40 level. 91 00:05:09,330 --> 00:05:11,070 Again, let's look at that high. 92 00:05:11,969 --> 00:05:13,230 It comes in at 1 10 40. 93 00:05:13,230 --> 00:05:14,250 He hits it perfectly. 94 00:05:14,640 --> 00:05:17,099 It doesn't go one PIP above it doesn't fall short of it because 95 00:05:17,099 --> 00:05:18,840 right to it and it falls down. 96 00:05:19,260 --> 00:05:19,620 Okay. 97 00:05:20,370 --> 00:05:23,219 I said yesterday that I wasn't, I would have been interested in taking 98 00:05:23,250 --> 00:05:29,940 a short around 1, 10 35 to 1, 10 40, then expect the stops to be swept out. 99 00:05:29,940 --> 00:05:30,930 So let's go back out to a daily. 100 00:05:35,385 --> 00:05:39,344 And you can see that's where the cell stops were below the lows. 101 00:05:39,765 --> 00:05:42,164 And after hitting that level here, then it went down and 102 00:05:42,164 --> 00:05:43,365 cleared him out rather handsomely. 103 00:05:43,365 --> 00:05:43,995 So we went nice. 104 00:05:43,995 --> 00:05:47,505 20 pips below it, cleared out there's, uh, there's cell stops. 105 00:05:47,505 --> 00:05:48,435 Now the next level. 106 00:05:49,260 --> 00:05:52,409 Uh, to be mindful of is obviously the low here. 107 00:05:52,770 --> 00:05:53,099 Okay. 108 00:05:53,099 --> 00:05:56,070 And that low comes in the form of one to nine 14. 109 00:05:56,070 --> 00:05:58,979 So we're looking for one to nine tens to one to nine big figure. 110 00:05:58,979 --> 00:06:02,580 And if we get some expansion, 1 0 8 AB okay. 111 00:06:03,060 --> 00:06:08,280 So that's, uh, this is what I would have liked to have seen, um, set up yesterday. 112 00:06:08,539 --> 00:06:13,469 I would've been a lot more inclined to do it then without having all of the, uh, 113 00:06:14,865 --> 00:06:20,115 The difficulties with maximum coverage on a high-impact news like we did today, 114 00:06:22,635 --> 00:06:26,415 pound dollar or cable as we call it. 115 00:06:26,895 --> 00:06:30,885 Um, we're still like these bus stops up here and until we get 116 00:06:30,885 --> 00:06:33,825 through this void, if we, if we close in this void and go below this 117 00:06:33,825 --> 00:06:35,745 low here, I'm going to change my. 118 00:06:37,230 --> 00:06:40,920 A view on cable and we'll probably be looking to make a run down into 119 00:06:40,920 --> 00:06:44,190 this bullish, shorter block and maybe potentially take out the lows here. 120 00:06:44,190 --> 00:06:52,950 So the range is between, uh, the low of 1 21 39 and the high coming in at 1 23 29. 121 00:06:53,280 --> 00:06:54,510 So that's our current dealing range. 122 00:06:54,510 --> 00:06:59,280 So if we lose the low here, we're going to look for a retest retest 123 00:06:59,280 --> 00:07:02,940 rabbit into this bullish or block or down calibrate for that. 124 00:07:04,455 --> 00:07:06,195 And because I have such yeah. 125 00:07:07,380 --> 00:07:12,330 I just don't know for certain, with a great deal of conviction, how to trade 126 00:07:12,390 --> 00:07:13,800 the British pound U S dollar in here. 127 00:07:14,130 --> 00:07:15,600 And I have no shame in telling you that. 128 00:07:15,630 --> 00:07:21,270 And if I don't have that, um, then there's no trade cause you just don't simply guess 129 00:07:21,300 --> 00:07:24,930 there's no guessing involved, but we did get down into the void in here, had my 130 00:07:24,930 --> 00:07:28,260 slow reaction after tweeting that chart this morning, but nothing on the upside 131 00:07:28,260 --> 00:07:30,060 that would've got me terribly excited. 132 00:07:33,015 --> 00:07:36,795 So again, um, plump interest I have right now simply to buy 133 00:07:36,795 --> 00:07:38,205 stopped above these equal highs. 134 00:07:38,685 --> 00:07:40,155 And we've been noting them as well over here. 135 00:07:40,155 --> 00:07:40,905 So there's a lot of layers. 136 00:07:41,775 --> 00:07:45,435 And in engineering for a 1 23 30 as resistance. 137 00:07:45,465 --> 00:07:46,545 And I just don't trust that. 138 00:07:46,935 --> 00:07:47,235 Okay. 139 00:07:47,655 --> 00:07:51,525 Um, obviously I can look at this later on and it could be down below 140 00:07:51,525 --> 00:07:54,675 one twenties later on, you know, we turn it on and I can say, well, 141 00:07:54,915 --> 00:07:56,325 they still kept that level in tack. 142 00:07:56,355 --> 00:07:59,145 And sometimes, you know, that's going to happen, but the way I see 143 00:07:59,145 --> 00:08:03,495 it, um, if it goes down lower, it would be real nice to see them gun. 144 00:08:03,495 --> 00:08:03,675 These. 145 00:08:04,500 --> 00:08:04,830 Okay. 146 00:08:05,430 --> 00:08:08,219 Um, which is also real quick. 147 00:08:08,219 --> 00:08:10,260 Let's go back to the Euro dollar. 148 00:08:10,800 --> 00:08:14,520 Um, you can see those buy stops over here. 149 00:08:16,275 --> 00:08:20,685 Resting around that, uh, 1 10 25 to 1 10 30 level. 150 00:08:21,075 --> 00:08:23,895 Um, that's why I was saying 1 10 35, but also if it was just going to be 151 00:08:23,895 --> 00:08:27,885 an expansion of other stops, um, I would like to see 1 10 40 relative to 152 00:08:27,885 --> 00:08:30,915 the four hour chart pair of shorter block as I interrogated earlier. 153 00:08:31,395 --> 00:08:32,325 But price went up there. 154 00:08:32,325 --> 00:08:34,664 I swept it by stops right above these equal highs. 155 00:08:35,645 --> 00:08:39,785 Rent below the one at 9 53 level from the cell stops right below here. 156 00:08:39,815 --> 00:08:41,675 And you can see it's done that rather handsomely. 157 00:08:42,605 --> 00:08:47,315 Um, I think that could be what we see for cable. 158 00:08:47,375 --> 00:08:50,295 If we're going to go lower, I would really be excited about going 1 159 00:08:50,295 --> 00:08:56,885 23 30 to 1 23, even, uh, 45 to 50, and then see some rejection. 160 00:08:56,885 --> 00:09:01,865 And then I would be more inclined to take a short there dollar CAD. 161 00:09:02,465 --> 00:09:04,715 Uh, we saw obviously yesterday almost came down. 162 00:09:05,505 --> 00:09:06,645 Cleared up the low in here. 163 00:09:07,155 --> 00:09:11,385 Um, we saw rejection and price still screaming higher. 164 00:09:11,775 --> 00:09:16,275 Um, that same level that's been noted at 1 30, 1 35 level, which is over here. 165 00:09:17,115 --> 00:09:21,765 Um, that's also, um, if you'd look at that level, all we're doing is we're using 166 00:09:21,765 --> 00:09:25,095 the opening price on the week and also. 167 00:09:26,490 --> 00:09:27,390 Kayla right here. 168 00:09:27,840 --> 00:09:28,680 Cause that's a breaker. 169 00:09:28,800 --> 00:09:32,490 So just draw that out in time and route it to your near five levels or zero levels. 170 00:09:32,490 --> 00:09:34,170 And you would come up with that level as well. 171 00:09:34,680 --> 00:09:38,610 I saw that question on Twitter, uh, yesterday in regards to why would 172 00:09:38,610 --> 00:09:40,170 this Sunday candle be significant? 173 00:09:40,170 --> 00:09:40,720 It's not the fact. 174 00:09:40,750 --> 00:09:41,550 It's a Sunday candle. 175 00:09:41,550 --> 00:09:42,110 Let's do opening. 176 00:09:43,334 --> 00:09:45,944 And we also we've mentioned the breaker down in here. 177 00:09:45,944 --> 00:09:49,064 So we always gotta use institutional pricing, which is the zero levels and the 178 00:09:49,064 --> 00:09:54,801 five levels inside of the candles that we specifically focus on, uh, that 1, 1 179 00:09:54,801 --> 00:09:59,984 30, 1 35 level in there that's important because it's relative to the daily chart. 180 00:10:00,074 --> 00:10:03,615 And because we transposed those daily timeframe levels onto our lower 181 00:10:03,615 --> 00:10:09,045 timeframe, let 1 30, 1 35 levels here, price comes down once it going above it 182 00:10:09,045 --> 00:10:10,935 and find some support here in rallies. 183 00:10:12,045 --> 00:10:12,315 Okay. 184 00:10:12,315 --> 00:10:17,385 So we have the basis of a institutional level on daily chart, 1 30, 1 35. 185 00:10:17,745 --> 00:10:20,415 The fact that we did run away from that level. 186 00:10:20,475 --> 00:10:23,565 So you go right down to that level when you find the down candle. 187 00:10:23,925 --> 00:10:24,285 Okay. 188 00:10:24,525 --> 00:10:27,435 Because we have immediate back-to-back down candles. 189 00:10:27,495 --> 00:10:29,115 We had to blend those together. 190 00:10:29,685 --> 00:10:34,065 Some target there's two candles together to give us one down candle 191 00:10:34,065 --> 00:10:35,955 or a 30 minute odor block bullish. 192 00:10:36,465 --> 00:10:37,485 Draw that out in time. 193 00:10:37,815 --> 00:10:38,715 You can see price hits day. 194 00:10:39,675 --> 00:10:41,564 Responds and expands on the upside. 195 00:10:41,594 --> 00:10:43,574 Now it's pressed up three times in here. 196 00:10:44,415 --> 00:10:48,915 It'll be interesting to see if we get through a 1 32 31. 197 00:10:49,334 --> 00:10:51,974 So 1 30, 2 30 to 1 30, 2 35. 198 00:10:52,605 --> 00:10:54,765 Uh, again, it's the body of this last op candle. 199 00:10:55,094 --> 00:10:56,834 Uh, we could see the middle of that candle. 200 00:10:56,834 --> 00:10:58,395 1 30, 2 55. 201 00:10:59,055 --> 00:11:04,260 That should, um, Be in indicative of bullishness. 202 00:11:04,260 --> 00:11:07,860 If we get through 1 30, 2 35, 1 30, 2 60, uh, we're going to 203 00:11:07,860 --> 00:11:11,010 probably resume our uptrend on CAD. 204 00:11:11,580 --> 00:11:15,240 And if that's the case, let's maximize that chart. 205 00:11:15,240 --> 00:11:17,250 Cause we're hearing closes up for today. 206 00:11:17,820 --> 00:11:21,630 Uh, we would be looking for a move much more significant than, uh, this 207 00:11:21,630 --> 00:11:24,120 little, uh, breach of these old levels. 208 00:11:24,120 --> 00:11:24,390 Here. 209 00:11:24,810 --> 00:11:28,470 We might see a continuation on the upside, maybe reaching into the a 1 35. 210 00:11:29,775 --> 00:11:34,125 To even one 30 fives the clear out some, some buys stops about 211 00:11:34,125 --> 00:11:35,324 hearing closing some of that range. 212 00:11:36,285 --> 00:11:38,084 So that's what we're looking at for right now. 213 00:11:38,385 --> 00:11:41,865 And I'm going to wish you a good afternoon and I will get back with 214 00:11:41,865 --> 00:11:46,425 you again tomorrow morning for live commentary and a live session. 215 00:11:46,454 --> 00:11:48,795 I'll send you the link on the forum tonight. 216 00:11:48,795 --> 00:11:50,175 I'll tweet it, let you know it's online. 217 00:11:50,444 --> 00:11:54,615 So that way you can register and we will be meeting tomorrow morning at 7:00 AM. 218 00:11:55,064 --> 00:11:55,365 Okay. 219 00:11:55,454 --> 00:11:56,865 Until then I wish you good luck and good. 18110

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