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Good afternoon folks.
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This is ICT with a market
review for October 20th, 2016.
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Okay.
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Today we have pretty
busy economic calendar.
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We had retail sales for GBP
and during the London session.
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And then during the New York session, we
had Euro minimum bid rate, and then we
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had the big one, the ECB press conference.
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Uh, couple that with the
Philly fed manufacturing index
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and the unemployment claims.
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So we had a pretty intense economic
counter with lots of high-impact
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news spread across the entire day.
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Uh, the highlight was for a Euro
dollar, obviously, and then later on
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nine o'clock in the morning, GBP at a
member, uh, speaking as well, uh, 10
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o'clock in the morning, we had dollar
medium impact existing home sales.
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I'm gonna take you for a moment
briefly over in a flashback,
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but from yesterday's review.
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And this is at the three
minute and 15 second mark.
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So listen carefully.
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What I'm talking about
in regards to the Euro.
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I wasn't near the market.
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Couldn't see.
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It didn't have anything I could
have done to capitalize on it.
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But nonetheless, um, I wanna to see
a tree up a little bit higher than
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about that 1, 10 41, 10 35 to 1 10 40.
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That would have been a reason for
me to want to get short bear and
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then reach for the cell stops here.
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If I was going to do anything that demo,
just for example purposes for this week.
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Okay.
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So while the setup didn't form
yesterday, uh, on the heels of the ECB
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press conference, uh, high-impact news
at eight 30 this morning during the
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New York session, uh, we're going to
take a look at that, uh, Euro dollar
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setup, uh, before we get to it, let's
briefly go over to the dollar index
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and I'll break it all down for you.
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Uh, we were looking for a run to 98 55.
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Dollar index.
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And so far today, uh, we had
a high of 98 40, so we're just
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15 pips short of the objective.
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We were looking for $4 and that's
on the basis of these highs up here
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00:02:07,889 --> 00:02:10,169
with, by stops, resting just above it.
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So we're just, uh, just a
little bit short of that.
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The, uh, the stops that we identified
at 97 70 once they were cleared
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out, we went into consolidation and
during the ECB press conference and
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unemployment, uh, numbers, we saw that
sweep down one more time, uh, expansion
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on the daily range, and it quickly
rejected that and made a run on the
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00:02:34,380 --> 00:02:38,980
buy stops above these highs over here,
uh, noticed that we, uh, one only.
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Uh, 10, 20 pips or so above that.
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So it will be interesting to
see if we maintain a willingness
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to want to continue up to that.
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98, 55, 98, 60 level the Euro.
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Okay.
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I gave you a specific level, a
yesterday's review, the 1 10 40
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level, specifically 1 10 35 to 1,
10 40 for a selling opportunity.
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00:03:07,200 --> 00:03:10,140
And while I didn't really break
it down, cause I was kind of
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rushing through yesterday's review.
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Um, I'm glad I gave you the,
uh, the expectation of what
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those levels should be offering.
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Um, but what you don't see here
on the daily chart, we can.
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Draw out a little bit more detail
relative to the four-hour chart.
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And I didn't want to
deal with that timeframe.
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Let's let's go over here and do this.
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Okay.
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Which you can see is
on the four-hour chart.
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We have a.
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Bullish candle, right for the
down move in this price swing.
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So this is an up candle who sells
during up candles or up movement.
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It's smart money.
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The opening on that candle, this the last
up candle wars are bear shorter block.
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00:04:04,480 --> 00:04:06,690
In other words, opening
comes in at 1 10 40.
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00:04:06,690 --> 00:04:09,600
So that's the reason why I said
1 10 40 was a significant level.
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00:04:09,870 --> 00:04:16,589
Also notice that also has this level
coming just above and old high in here.
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00:04:16,589 --> 00:04:19,870
So we have a level of buy stops
here, coupled with an order.
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In the bear sense right above it.
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So again, the opening price is at 1 10 40.
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Can I put this right here?
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Okay.
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At 1 10 40.
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Now today, the actual intraday
high comes in and exactly 1 10 40.
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00:04:35,729 --> 00:04:39,370
So it's just one more
thing for your notes.
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00:04:41,190 --> 00:04:46,710
. Reflection on these big, high impact
news that releases the ECB press release.
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Uh, anytime there is
these high impact news.
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Yes.
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They can go beyond where
you think they may go.
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Okay.
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But many times they still fall in,
in line with what we've anticipated
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in terms of institutional order flow.
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Uh, it went right to 1 10 40.
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Here's the intraday price action.
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This is the eight 30 relief.
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Okay.
90
00:05:07,349 --> 00:05:09,270
Price goes right up to the 1 10 40 level.
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00:05:09,330 --> 00:05:11,070
Again, let's look at that high.
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It comes in at 1 10 40.
93
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He hits it perfectly.
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00:05:14,640 --> 00:05:17,099
It doesn't go one PIP above it
doesn't fall short of it because
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00:05:17,099 --> 00:05:18,840
right to it and it falls down.
96
00:05:19,260 --> 00:05:19,620
Okay.
97
00:05:20,370 --> 00:05:23,219
I said yesterday that I wasn't, I
would have been interested in taking
98
00:05:23,250 --> 00:05:29,940
a short around 1, 10 35 to 1, 10 40,
then expect the stops to be swept out.
99
00:05:29,940 --> 00:05:30,930
So let's go back out to a daily.
100
00:05:35,385 --> 00:05:39,344
And you can see that's where the
cell stops were below the lows.
101
00:05:39,765 --> 00:05:42,164
And after hitting that level
here, then it went down and
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00:05:42,164 --> 00:05:43,365
cleared him out rather handsomely.
103
00:05:43,365 --> 00:05:43,995
So we went nice.
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20 pips below it, cleared out
there's, uh, there's cell stops.
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00:05:47,505 --> 00:05:48,435
Now the next level.
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Uh, to be mindful of is
obviously the low here.
107
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Okay.
108
00:05:53,099 --> 00:05:56,070
And that low comes in the
form of one to nine 14.
109
00:05:56,070 --> 00:05:58,979
So we're looking for one to nine
tens to one to nine big figure.
110
00:05:58,979 --> 00:06:02,580
And if we get some
expansion, 1 0 8 AB okay.
111
00:06:03,060 --> 00:06:08,280
So that's, uh, this is what I would have
liked to have seen, um, set up yesterday.
112
00:06:08,539 --> 00:06:13,469
I would've been a lot more inclined to
do it then without having all of the, uh,
113
00:06:14,865 --> 00:06:20,115
The difficulties with maximum coverage
on a high-impact news like we did today,
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pound dollar or cable as we call it.
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00:06:26,895 --> 00:06:30,885
Um, we're still like these bus
stops up here and until we get
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00:06:30,885 --> 00:06:33,825
through this void, if we, if we
close in this void and go below this
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00:06:33,825 --> 00:06:35,745
low here, I'm going to change my.
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A view on cable and we'll probably
be looking to make a run down into
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00:06:40,920 --> 00:06:44,190
this bullish, shorter block and maybe
potentially take out the lows here.
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00:06:44,190 --> 00:06:52,950
So the range is between, uh, the low of 1
21 39 and the high coming in at 1 23 29.
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00:06:53,280 --> 00:06:54,510
So that's our current dealing range.
122
00:06:54,510 --> 00:06:59,280
So if we lose the low here, we're
going to look for a retest retest
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00:06:59,280 --> 00:07:02,940
rabbit into this bullish or
block or down calibrate for that.
124
00:07:04,455 --> 00:07:06,195
And because I have such yeah.
125
00:07:07,380 --> 00:07:12,330
I just don't know for certain, with a
great deal of conviction, how to trade
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the British pound U S dollar in here.
127
00:07:14,130 --> 00:07:15,600
And I have no shame in telling you that.
128
00:07:15,630 --> 00:07:21,270
And if I don't have that, um, then there's
no trade cause you just don't simply guess
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00:07:21,300 --> 00:07:24,930
there's no guessing involved, but we did
get down into the void in here, had my
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00:07:24,930 --> 00:07:28,260
slow reaction after tweeting that chart
this morning, but nothing on the upside
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00:07:28,260 --> 00:07:30,060
that would've got me terribly excited.
132
00:07:33,015 --> 00:07:36,795
So again, um, plump interest
I have right now simply to buy
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00:07:36,795 --> 00:07:38,205
stopped above these equal highs.
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00:07:38,685 --> 00:07:40,155
And we've been noting
them as well over here.
135
00:07:40,155 --> 00:07:40,905
So there's a lot of layers.
136
00:07:41,775 --> 00:07:45,435
And in engineering for
a 1 23 30 as resistance.
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00:07:45,465 --> 00:07:46,545
And I just don't trust that.
138
00:07:46,935 --> 00:07:47,235
Okay.
139
00:07:47,655 --> 00:07:51,525
Um, obviously I can look at this
later on and it could be down below
140
00:07:51,525 --> 00:07:54,675
one twenties later on, you know,
we turn it on and I can say, well,
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00:07:54,915 --> 00:07:56,325
they still kept that level in tack.
142
00:07:56,355 --> 00:07:59,145
And sometimes, you know, that's
going to happen, but the way I see
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00:07:59,145 --> 00:08:03,495
it, um, if it goes down lower, it
would be real nice to see them gun.
144
00:08:03,495 --> 00:08:03,675
These.
145
00:08:04,500 --> 00:08:04,830
Okay.
146
00:08:05,430 --> 00:08:08,219
Um, which is also real quick.
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00:08:08,219 --> 00:08:10,260
Let's go back to the Euro dollar.
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00:08:10,800 --> 00:08:14,520
Um, you can see those buy stops over here.
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00:08:16,275 --> 00:08:20,685
Resting around that, uh,
1 10 25 to 1 10 30 level.
150
00:08:21,075 --> 00:08:23,895
Um, that's why I was saying 1 10 35,
but also if it was just going to be
151
00:08:23,895 --> 00:08:27,885
an expansion of other stops, um, I
would like to see 1 10 40 relative to
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00:08:27,885 --> 00:08:30,915
the four hour chart pair of shorter
block as I interrogated earlier.
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00:08:31,395 --> 00:08:32,325
But price went up there.
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00:08:32,325 --> 00:08:34,664
I swept it by stops right
above these equal highs.
155
00:08:35,645 --> 00:08:39,785
Rent below the one at 9 53 level
from the cell stops right below here.
156
00:08:39,815 --> 00:08:41,675
And you can see it's done
that rather handsomely.
157
00:08:42,605 --> 00:08:47,315
Um, I think that could
be what we see for cable.
158
00:08:47,375 --> 00:08:50,295
If we're going to go lower, I would
really be excited about going 1
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00:08:50,295 --> 00:08:56,885
23 30 to 1 23, even, uh, 45 to
50, and then see some rejection.
160
00:08:56,885 --> 00:09:01,865
And then I would be more inclined
to take a short there dollar CAD.
161
00:09:02,465 --> 00:09:04,715
Uh, we saw obviously
yesterday almost came down.
162
00:09:05,505 --> 00:09:06,645
Cleared up the low in here.
163
00:09:07,155 --> 00:09:11,385
Um, we saw rejection and
price still screaming higher.
164
00:09:11,775 --> 00:09:16,275
Um, that same level that's been noted
at 1 30, 1 35 level, which is over here.
165
00:09:17,115 --> 00:09:21,765
Um, that's also, um, if you'd look at
that level, all we're doing is we're using
166
00:09:21,765 --> 00:09:25,095
the opening price on the week and also.
167
00:09:26,490 --> 00:09:27,390
Kayla right here.
168
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Cause that's a breaker.
169
00:09:28,800 --> 00:09:32,490
So just draw that out in time and route it
to your near five levels or zero levels.
170
00:09:32,490 --> 00:09:34,170
And you would come up
with that level as well.
171
00:09:34,680 --> 00:09:38,610
I saw that question on Twitter, uh,
yesterday in regards to why would
172
00:09:38,610 --> 00:09:40,170
this Sunday candle be significant?
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00:09:40,170 --> 00:09:40,720
It's not the fact.
174
00:09:40,750 --> 00:09:41,550
It's a Sunday candle.
175
00:09:41,550 --> 00:09:42,110
Let's do opening.
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00:09:43,334 --> 00:09:45,944
And we also we've mentioned
the breaker down in here.
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00:09:45,944 --> 00:09:49,064
So we always gotta use institutional
pricing, which is the zero levels and the
178
00:09:49,064 --> 00:09:54,801
five levels inside of the candles that
we specifically focus on, uh, that 1, 1
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00:09:54,801 --> 00:09:59,984
30, 1 35 level in there that's important
because it's relative to the daily chart.
180
00:10:00,074 --> 00:10:03,615
And because we transposed those
daily timeframe levels onto our lower
181
00:10:03,615 --> 00:10:09,045
timeframe, let 1 30, 1 35 levels here,
price comes down once it going above it
182
00:10:09,045 --> 00:10:10,935
and find some support here in rallies.
183
00:10:12,045 --> 00:10:12,315
Okay.
184
00:10:12,315 --> 00:10:17,385
So we have the basis of a institutional
level on daily chart, 1 30, 1 35.
185
00:10:17,745 --> 00:10:20,415
The fact that we did run
away from that level.
186
00:10:20,475 --> 00:10:23,565
So you go right down to that level
when you find the down candle.
187
00:10:23,925 --> 00:10:24,285
Okay.
188
00:10:24,525 --> 00:10:27,435
Because we have immediate
back-to-back down candles.
189
00:10:27,495 --> 00:10:29,115
We had to blend those together.
190
00:10:29,685 --> 00:10:34,065
Some target there's two candles
together to give us one down candle
191
00:10:34,065 --> 00:10:35,955
or a 30 minute odor block bullish.
192
00:10:36,465 --> 00:10:37,485
Draw that out in time.
193
00:10:37,815 --> 00:10:38,715
You can see price hits day.
194
00:10:39,675 --> 00:10:41,564
Responds and expands on the upside.
195
00:10:41,594 --> 00:10:43,574
Now it's pressed up three times in here.
196
00:10:44,415 --> 00:10:48,915
It'll be interesting to see
if we get through a 1 32 31.
197
00:10:49,334 --> 00:10:51,974
So 1 30, 2 30 to 1 30, 2 35.
198
00:10:52,605 --> 00:10:54,765
Uh, again, it's the body
of this last op candle.
199
00:10:55,094 --> 00:10:56,834
Uh, we could see the
middle of that candle.
200
00:10:56,834 --> 00:10:58,395
1 30, 2 55.
201
00:10:59,055 --> 00:11:04,260
That should, um, Be in
indicative of bullishness.
202
00:11:04,260 --> 00:11:07,860
If we get through 1 30, 2 35,
1 30, 2 60, uh, we're going to
203
00:11:07,860 --> 00:11:11,010
probably resume our uptrend on CAD.
204
00:11:11,580 --> 00:11:15,240
And if that's the case,
let's maximize that chart.
205
00:11:15,240 --> 00:11:17,250
Cause we're hearing closes up for today.
206
00:11:17,820 --> 00:11:21,630
Uh, we would be looking for a move
much more significant than, uh, this
207
00:11:21,630 --> 00:11:24,120
little, uh, breach of these old levels.
208
00:11:24,120 --> 00:11:24,390
Here.
209
00:11:24,810 --> 00:11:28,470
We might see a continuation on the
upside, maybe reaching into the a 1 35.
210
00:11:29,775 --> 00:11:34,125
To even one 30 fives the clear
out some, some buys stops about
211
00:11:34,125 --> 00:11:35,324
hearing closing some of that range.
212
00:11:36,285 --> 00:11:38,084
So that's what we're
looking at for right now.
213
00:11:38,385 --> 00:11:41,865
And I'm going to wish you a good
afternoon and I will get back with
214
00:11:41,865 --> 00:11:46,425
you again tomorrow morning for
live commentary and a live session.
215
00:11:46,454 --> 00:11:48,795
I'll send you the link
on the forum tonight.
216
00:11:48,795 --> 00:11:50,175
I'll tweet it, let you know it's online.
217
00:11:50,444 --> 00:11:54,615
So that way you can register and we will
be meeting tomorrow morning at 7:00 AM.
218
00:11:55,064 --> 00:11:55,365
Okay.
219
00:11:55,454 --> 00:11:56,865
Until then I wish you good luck and good.
18110
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