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Volcanoes are sleeping giants,
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woe betide us, should they awake.
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Millions of people live in their shadows,
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and very close to a looming catastrophe.
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00:00:13,401 --> 00:00:16,863
But, even giants, far
away and long forgotten,
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can suddenly come alive.
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Looking at history,
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we come to understand that active volcanoes
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also need to be reckoned
with in the future.
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00:00:29,446 --> 00:00:32,654
Volcanologists, climate
researchers, geologists,
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they all want to learn
from previous catastrophes
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in order to save lives in the future.
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In a way, they're like
Beauty and the Beast.
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Can we protect ourselves from this danger?
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We can't always predict these events.
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People will die.
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Istanbul is Europe's largest metropolis.
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More than 14 million people live here.
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But, few of them know that
the eruption of a volcano
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has shaped this city's destiny.
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History shows what's in store
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for many cities around the world.
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Because, no matter how far
away the volcanoes are,
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no one's truly safe.
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In the year 541 AD, Istanbul is
still called Constantinople.
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A foreign plague decimates the population
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of the Byzantine capital.
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Millions of people die.
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Emperor Justinian, and the entire country,
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are desperate.
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An invisible foe has taken over the empire.
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Your Majesty, the air we breathe is so bad,
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the pestilence has spread to the city.
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What do you plan to do?
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Those who are righteous
have nothing to fear.
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Then, ask the heavens what we've done.
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The city is full of corpses.
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What is the true reason?
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The answer to this riddle
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might be found one and a
half millennia later,
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and more than 3,000
kilometers further north.
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A small international team of researchers
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has put up their tents
in eastern Greenland.
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They are here to research
the climate of the past.
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Johannes Freitag, of the
Alfred Wegener Institute,
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hopes to retrieve information from the ice
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on how the climate has changed
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over the last millennia.
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Good to see you.
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Good to see you.
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He is in search of sudden climate changes.
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Greenland is an inhospitable place.
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Even in summer, the temperatures cool down
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to minus 18 degrees Celsius.
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But here, far from civilization,
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is the perfect place for ice core drilling.
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Because the ice here is very thin,
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100,000 years of climate
history are deep frozen
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in only half a kilometer depth.
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The exact location of the
drilling site is key.
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If there are any anomalies
in the upper layers,
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it needs to be relocated.
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It goes down until this layer.
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Here you can see the melted layer.
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It's refrozen melt water from last summer.
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And so, below here, there's massive ice.
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The fine layers are like growth rings.
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It's important not to destroy
them during the retrieval.
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An annual layer measures
about half a centimeter.
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So, the researchers are
slowly stepping back in time.
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But, the work has to be broken
off every now and then.
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The drill can't heat up,
or it would melt the ice.
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The layers have been reached,
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from around the time of the plague.
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Does the ice give any
indications about the trigger
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of the disease?
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30.
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50.
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The electrical conductivity
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of the drilling core
confirms the suspicion.
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In the sixth century AD,
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the ice suddenly points to a shift.
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There was a sudden increase
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in the atmosphere's sulfur content.
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Very clear.
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That's rare.
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This mus be a volcanic peak.
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It is quite high,
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and present in 10 centimeters of the ice.
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That equals about two years.
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00:06:21,303 --> 00:06:24,637
We don't know the time
period for sure right now,
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00:06:24,638 --> 00:06:26,569
because we don't have
the exact determination
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of the age of the ice.
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Volcanoes are fed by the hot inner core
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of the Earth.
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Driven by this heat,
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magma rises out of the Earth's
mantle in slow currents,
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and accumulates under its thin crust.
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The molten rock also transports a whole mix
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of poisonous gases to the top.
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Could the mysterious epidemic
stand in close relation
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00:07:09,104 --> 00:07:11,521
to the eruption of a volcano?
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00:07:13,013 --> 00:07:15,615
Before the city was struck
by the unknown disease,
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the sky darkened.
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00:07:27,276 --> 00:07:28,297
There are precise accounts,
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dating back to the year 536 AD.
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For months, the sun has been weak,
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in summer as in winter.
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Everyone fears it might never come back.
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The wine is sour, the harvest is lean.
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There is so much snow
that the birds are dying.
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It is as though Hell had crept
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00:08:00,793 --> 00:08:03,376
out of the depths of the Earth.
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00:08:07,552 --> 00:08:10,477
Historian, Mischa Meier, of
the University of Tübingen,
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has analyzed the accounts
to understand what exactly
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happened back then.
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During the sixth century AD,
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the population is already
very wary of anything it sees
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as abnormal.
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This is due to a fatalistic
view of the world
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that was quite popular back then.
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It was sort of, waiting for
the world to end attitude
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that fostered any thoughts
of the coming doom.
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Any sign would do.
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00:08:40,133 --> 00:08:44,300
And, this unusual weather
obviously fit in quite nicely.
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Scholars had predicted the end of the world
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to occur at the beginning
of the sixth century.
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And, every change in the
environment was seen
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00:09:00,360 --> 00:09:03,610
as a sign of the coming last judgement.
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00:09:08,210 --> 00:09:10,793
And, indeed, change was coming,
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but much different than
people back then expected.
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They are testimonies of an
almost forgotten catastrophe.
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Its cause, a seemingly insolvable mystery.
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The Earth itself keeps destroying life
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on its own surface,
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because volcanoes spew out, not only ashes,
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into the Earth's atmosphere,
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00:09:52,752 --> 00:09:55,002
but sulfuric gases as well.
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During massive eruptions,
they catapult sulfur
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as high as one kilometer into the air.
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00:10:03,617 --> 00:10:06,950
Once there, the sulfur mixes with water.
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This creates a layer of clouds,
made up of sulfuric acid,
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that barely lets in any sunlight.
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00:10:22,310 --> 00:10:26,477
A more recent example shows
the effects this can have.
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In 1815, in Indonesia, the
Tambora volcano awakes.
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Its actual eruption only
lasts for three hours.
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In this short time, ashes and ash flows
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kill about 10,000 inhabitants.
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But, its cloud claims many
more deaths around the world.
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00:10:56,504 --> 00:10:59,392
By this time, the world had
already grown so close
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that the word about the
catastrophe has spread to Europe.
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Shortly afterwards, the
sulfur reaches our continent.
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00:11:08,899 --> 00:11:12,074
The clouds color the sky a deep red.
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There are breathtaking sunsets,
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that have been captured by William Turner,
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and are preserved until today.
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But this beauty, is the
harbinger of a catastrophe.
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What follows, are cold
spells, bad harvests,
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00:11:27,845 --> 00:11:31,202
and the biggest famine of the 19th century.
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00:11:31,203 --> 00:11:33,530
The number of victims of
Tambora's sulfur clouds
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can only be estimated.
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On a global scale, the volcano
probably cost 10 times
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the amount of lives than
the eruption in Indonesia.
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In Germany, many people are
forced to flee their home.
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The ice cores from Greenland are analyzed
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in the Alfred Wegener
Institute in Bremerhaven.
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Will the suspicion of a volcanic eruption
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in the sixth century, the century
of the mysterious disease,
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be confirmed?
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There are hundreds of samples
stored in cold chambers.
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It is one of the largest ice
core storages in the world.
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Until now, the volcano
that poisoned the climate
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in the sixth century hasn't yet been found.
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We want to reconstruct the climate
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00:12:26,659 --> 00:12:29,482
on the entire planet to
piece together the puzzle.
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That is why we have ice cores
from all over the world.
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The analysis of the core from Greenland
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confirms it.
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The traces of sulfur actually do stem
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from the sixth century.
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At the same time the cold
spell reached Constantinople,
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a previously unknown volcano
covers the northern hemisphere
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with a cloud of sulfur.
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But, the scientists have a suspicion.
185
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Could it be that, within a few years,
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there wasn't just one, but
in fact two eruptions?
187
00:13:14,373 --> 00:13:17,190
And indeed, the laboratory analyses show
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that a few centimeters further
there is another indication
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of sulfur.
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A second volcano had poisoned the climate
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just a few years after the first.
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And, the epidemic follows this eruption.
193
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The eruption left traces on
the North and the South Pole.
194
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The volcano that spit them out,
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must therefore be found in the
middle, close to the Equator.
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In El Salvador, hidden away
from the world until now,
197
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lies the Ilopango.
198
00:14:07,568 --> 00:14:09,450
The traces of its last eruption
199
00:14:09,451 --> 00:14:13,618
have long since been overgrown
by the tropical rain forest.
200
00:14:18,201 --> 00:14:21,154
Robert Dull, of the
University of Austin Texas,
201
00:14:21,155 --> 00:14:25,208
has specialized in the
study of past ecosystems.
202
00:14:25,209 --> 00:14:28,007
He is convinced that the
Ilopango is responsible
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00:14:28,008 --> 00:14:30,995
for the climate chaos in the sixth century.
204
00:14:30,996 --> 00:14:35,687
And, he is looking for
evidence to prove his theory.
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The volcano is, basically, the lake.
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What you see here, is an
outline of the entire area
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that was erupted, all at once,
when this volcano erupted
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15 hundred years ago.
209
00:14:46,504 --> 00:14:48,608
So, instead of just having a single vent,
210
00:14:48,609 --> 00:14:50,765
where lava would come up
through a single vent,
211
00:14:50,766 --> 00:14:52,432
we have many vents,
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00:14:52,433 --> 00:14:56,600
and all of that material was
expelled explosively at once.
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00:14:58,160 --> 00:15:00,384
The eruption must have been immense.
214
00:15:00,385 --> 00:15:02,669
It buried the entire area under
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00:15:02,670 --> 00:15:05,565
a several meter high layer of ashes.
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00:15:05,566 --> 00:15:09,931
Volcanic ash doesn't have a lot
in common with regular ash.
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00:15:09,932 --> 00:15:12,697
It is finely scattered rock.
218
00:15:12,698 --> 00:15:14,820
The force of the explosion ripped apart
219
00:15:14,821 --> 00:15:18,495
huge amounts of lava, and
turned it into dust.
220
00:15:27,468 --> 00:15:30,120
We find an ash that's
light in color like this,
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00:15:30,121 --> 00:15:32,040
it's very exciting for someone like me,
222
00:15:32,041 --> 00:15:33,674
because what it tells us
223
00:15:33,675 --> 00:15:35,930
is that it's both high in silica
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and that it was erupted explosively
in a geologic instant.
225
00:15:41,311 --> 00:15:43,522
Might have been a day,
might have been two days,
226
00:15:43,523 --> 00:15:46,448
but a huge amount of material
was erupted all at once,
227
00:15:46,449 --> 00:15:49,249
which tells us of the
strength, and magnitude,
228
00:15:49,250 --> 00:15:50,917
and shear immensity.
229
00:15:56,551 --> 00:15:58,370
Robert Dull tries to reconstruct
230
00:15:58,371 --> 00:16:01,530
exactly what happened during the eruption.
231
00:16:01,531 --> 00:16:04,602
He interprets the geological traces
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00:16:04,603 --> 00:16:07,436
that are invisible to most people.
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00:16:15,412 --> 00:16:17,563
As long as the giant is asleep,
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00:16:17,564 --> 00:16:21,253
nothing tells of the danger lying beneath.
235
00:16:21,254 --> 00:16:25,087
Even back then, the volcano
was a crater lake.
236
00:16:28,793 --> 00:16:31,239
Its magma chamber lies underneath.
237
00:16:31,240 --> 00:16:33,286
The pressure in it slowly increases
238
00:16:33,287 --> 00:16:36,295
until it reaches a critical point.
239
00:16:36,296 --> 00:16:38,491
The gases that are freed in the molten rock
240
00:16:38,492 --> 00:16:39,825
start to ascend.
241
00:16:42,155 --> 00:16:44,764
Steam, created by the heat
of the magma chamber,
242
00:16:44,765 --> 00:16:47,848
settles over the landscape, like fog.
243
00:16:49,376 --> 00:16:52,834
Until suddenly, the roof
of the chamber flies up
244
00:16:52,835 --> 00:16:56,085
like the cork of a bottle of champagne.
245
00:17:17,615 --> 00:17:20,395
As the eruption column
falls back into itself,
246
00:17:20,396 --> 00:17:23,547
pyroclastic streams flow over the earth.
247
00:17:23,548 --> 00:17:27,492
The ash clouds, as hot
as 700 degrees Celsius,
248
00:17:27,493 --> 00:17:30,160
destroy everything in their way.
249
00:17:33,629 --> 00:17:36,808
Not only do they flow over
the edge in huge sheets,
250
00:17:36,809 --> 00:17:40,235
but they flow through the
valleys and up mountainsides,
251
00:17:40,236 --> 00:17:42,470
and there's some estimates that they flowed
252
00:17:42,471 --> 00:17:45,493
as high as 15 hundred
meters in some places,
253
00:17:45,494 --> 00:17:49,570
up hillsides, according to
geologists working in this area.
254
00:17:49,571 --> 00:17:52,098
So, you can't outrun these events.
255
00:17:52,099 --> 00:17:55,782
You cannot outrun a pyroclastic flow.
256
00:17:55,783 --> 00:17:58,533
You can't hide from a pyroclastic flow.
257
00:17:58,534 --> 00:18:01,034
You die in a pyroclastic flow.
258
00:18:06,477 --> 00:18:08,554
It's unlikely that anyone in a radius
259
00:18:08,555 --> 00:18:12,638
of 1,000 square kilometers
survived this inferno.
260
00:18:16,365 --> 00:18:20,532
Today, only the ashes show
just how big the eruption was.
261
00:18:40,585 --> 00:18:44,172
The size of the eruption,
by measuring the thickness,
262
00:18:44,173 --> 00:18:46,476
not only right by the crater itself,
263
00:18:46,477 --> 00:18:48,722
but as we get further and further away,
264
00:18:48,723 --> 00:18:50,448
the more measurements we have
265
00:18:50,449 --> 00:18:53,949
the more accurately we
can estimate the size
266
00:18:53,950 --> 00:18:56,452
of the eruption itself.
267
00:18:56,453 --> 00:18:59,412
In order to discover the
world's biggest volcanoes,
268
00:18:59,413 --> 00:19:03,117
one can't solely rely
on the search on land.
269
00:19:03,118 --> 00:19:05,172
The ship, Bedeor,
270
00:19:05,173 --> 00:19:09,463
carries a team from the Kiel
Research Institute GEOMAR,
271
00:19:09,464 --> 00:19:13,631
that will examine the ocean
floor around Cape Verde.
272
00:19:16,584 --> 00:19:17,708
There is a steel pipe
273
00:19:17,709 --> 00:19:20,196
on the underside of the two ton weight,
274
00:19:20,197 --> 00:19:23,503
which is supposed to be
jammed into the sea bed.
275
00:19:23,504 --> 00:19:26,280
That way, it is possible
to extract a drilling core
276
00:19:26,281 --> 00:19:28,376
of about nine meters,
277
00:19:28,377 --> 00:19:30,853
but only if it doesn't
hit a spot on the ground
278
00:19:30,854 --> 00:19:32,271
that is too hard.
279
00:19:34,352 --> 00:19:36,465
The gravity core has to sink down
280
00:19:36,466 --> 00:19:38,431
to about three and half kilometers,
281
00:19:38,432 --> 00:19:41,144
until it reaches the seabed.
282
00:19:41,145 --> 00:19:42,984
At a speed of one meter per second,
283
00:19:42,985 --> 00:19:45,318
this can take up to an hour.
284
00:19:46,556 --> 00:19:49,366
Time and again, sediment
coring continues to unveil
285
00:19:49,367 --> 00:19:52,796
previously unknown volcanic eruptions.
286
00:19:52,797 --> 00:19:55,634
Important information,
in order to understand
287
00:19:55,635 --> 00:19:59,802
the impact of volcanoes on
the history of the Earth.
288
00:20:03,245 --> 00:20:06,690
The actual success of
the team was uncertain,
289
00:20:06,691 --> 00:20:08,123
but at eight in the morning,
290
00:20:08,124 --> 00:20:10,670
hope turns to certainty.
291
00:20:10,671 --> 00:20:12,921
The drilling has succeeded.
292
00:20:14,867 --> 00:20:16,624
The drill sleeve contains everything
293
00:20:16,625 --> 00:20:20,395
that has swept over the
ocean floor for centuries,
294
00:20:20,396 --> 00:20:21,896
even volcanic ash.
295
00:20:23,625 --> 00:20:25,631
Volcanologist, Steffen
Kutterolf, collects samples
296
00:20:25,632 --> 00:20:28,502
of this ash from all over the world.
297
00:20:28,503 --> 00:20:30,240
He is eager to discover the frequency
298
00:20:30,241 --> 00:20:32,737
of big volcanic eruptions.
299
00:20:32,738 --> 00:20:35,133
Once we find 10 layers of ash in a core,
300
00:20:35,134 --> 00:20:37,973
we examine in what
direction the ashes flew.
301
00:20:37,974 --> 00:20:40,263
Only with the information
of dissemination at hand,
302
00:20:40,264 --> 00:20:42,638
is one able to make other predictions,
303
00:20:42,639 --> 00:20:45,512
like the volume that came
out of this eruption.
304
00:20:47,685 --> 00:20:50,335
The sediment cores have a big advantage.
305
00:20:50,336 --> 00:20:52,486
Other than sulfur, ash can be traced back
306
00:20:52,487 --> 00:20:55,020
to a particular volcano.
307
00:20:55,021 --> 00:20:57,126
It is like a fingerprint.
308
00:20:57,127 --> 00:21:00,794
Every volcano, and every
eruption is unique.
309
00:21:05,368 --> 00:21:07,036
In the GEOMAR Institute in Kiel,
310
00:21:07,037 --> 00:21:10,056
there are samples from
all around the world.
311
00:21:10,057 --> 00:21:11,957
The ashes of the ocean
floor can, therefore,
312
00:21:11,958 --> 00:21:16,672
be traced back exactly to
a particular eruption.
313
00:21:16,673 --> 00:21:19,804
Steffen Kutterolf has brought
in several sediment samples
314
00:21:19,805 --> 00:21:21,648
of the Pacific Ocean floor,
315
00:21:21,649 --> 00:21:24,276
close to Central America's coast.
316
00:21:24,277 --> 00:21:26,272
The type of crystals in the ashes alone,
317
00:21:26,273 --> 00:21:29,023
can reveal their possible origin.
318
00:21:34,482 --> 00:21:36,962
The volcanologist has a suspicion.
319
00:21:36,963 --> 00:21:39,551
The mineral is typical for
the last big eruption
320
00:21:39,552 --> 00:21:41,552
of the Ilopango Volcano.
321
00:21:46,991 --> 00:21:49,779
The exact composition reveals
that the ashes are indeed
322
00:21:49,780 --> 00:21:51,197
from El Salvador.
323
00:21:52,305 --> 00:21:54,488
Even though he has found
them hundreds of kilometers
324
00:21:54,489 --> 00:21:57,822
further away on the Pacific Ocean floor.
325
00:22:15,849 --> 00:22:16,682
By doing so,
326
00:22:16,683 --> 00:22:18,527
we could place the marine
ash layers that we found
327
00:22:18,528 --> 00:22:20,873
and had previously been undiscovered
328
00:22:20,874 --> 00:22:24,243
in correlation with the
eruption of the Ilopango.
329
00:22:24,244 --> 00:22:25,867
Now, we have a result of an expansion
330
00:22:25,868 --> 00:22:28,563
of 1.2 million square kilometers,
331
00:22:28,564 --> 00:22:32,397
which is about four times
the size of Germany.
332
00:22:36,159 --> 00:22:38,244
This proves that the
eruption of the Ilopango
333
00:22:38,245 --> 00:22:41,265
catapulted more ash and
gas into the atmosphere
334
00:22:41,266 --> 00:22:45,433
than any other volcano has,
in the last 2,000 years.
335
00:22:54,614 --> 00:22:58,217
Today, buildings cover
the ash in many places.
336
00:22:58,218 --> 00:23:00,745
As a matter of fact, the
capital of San Salvador
337
00:23:00,746 --> 00:23:02,889
was built on it,
338
00:23:02,890 --> 00:23:07,159
16 kilometers away from
the, still, active volcano.
339
00:23:07,160 --> 00:23:11,962
No one is prepared for a possible
eruption of the volcano,
340
00:23:11,963 --> 00:23:14,184
especially not on the scale
of the amount of ash
341
00:23:14,185 --> 00:23:17,128
a previous eruption suggests.
342
00:23:17,129 --> 00:23:20,277
The country has other,
more pressing, problems.
343
00:23:20,278 --> 00:23:22,206
There are, however, 6 million people
344
00:23:22,207 --> 00:23:26,374
living in a radius of 100
kilometers around the volcano.
345
00:23:28,310 --> 00:23:30,485
Anywhere between North
America, Central America,
346
00:23:30,486 --> 00:23:31,521
and South America,
347
00:23:31,522 --> 00:23:34,878
no country is more densely
populated than El Salvador.
348
00:23:34,879 --> 00:23:35,945
What does that mean?
349
00:23:35,946 --> 00:23:38,996
There's land scarcity,
there's not enough room
350
00:23:38,997 --> 00:23:41,722
for all these people to live.
351
00:23:41,723 --> 00:23:44,847
So, to think of moving an
entire city, like San Salvador,
352
00:23:44,848 --> 00:23:48,060
even to ask people to move
off the flanks of a volcano
353
00:23:48,061 --> 00:23:51,010
that we know is active,
is very very difficult,
354
00:23:51,011 --> 00:23:53,428
because that's all they have.
355
00:23:55,638 --> 00:23:57,689
Therefore, it is even more important
356
00:23:57,690 --> 00:24:01,607
to examine the early
eruptions of the Ilopango.
357
00:24:05,712 --> 00:24:07,607
Robert Dull wants to get an impression
358
00:24:07,608 --> 00:24:10,290
of the area around the crater lake.
359
00:24:10,291 --> 00:24:12,154
He hopes to find regional indications
360
00:24:12,155 --> 00:24:14,750
of the last big eruption of the volcano,
361
00:24:14,751 --> 00:24:17,301
because the dispersion of the ashes
362
00:24:17,302 --> 00:24:21,692
reveal which areas might be
in danger in the future.
363
00:24:29,448 --> 00:24:31,446
Generations have settled in this area
364
00:24:31,447 --> 00:24:34,595
without even knowing about
the volcano's existence.
365
00:24:34,596 --> 00:24:37,525
The giant has been dormant
for several centuries,
366
00:24:37,526 --> 00:24:40,693
and no one remembers the big eruption.
367
00:24:49,304 --> 00:24:51,237
Was it really a trace of sulfur from here
368
00:24:51,238 --> 00:24:53,905
that was found in the ice cores?
369
00:25:00,542 --> 00:25:02,819
If you look across this valley now,
370
00:25:02,820 --> 00:25:07,017
you can see it's a broad,
relatively flat valley
371
00:25:07,018 --> 00:25:10,998
that's quite rich with all
the volcanic materials
372
00:25:10,999 --> 00:25:13,803
it's fallen over thousands
of years of development
373
00:25:13,804 --> 00:25:16,156
in rich agricultural soils.
374
00:25:16,157 --> 00:25:19,681
So, you can see why people
were attracted to this region
375
00:25:19,682 --> 00:25:21,265
in the first place.
376
00:25:26,372 --> 00:25:28,018
Agriculture has erased the traces
377
00:25:28,019 --> 00:25:30,581
of the eruption even further.
378
00:25:30,582 --> 00:25:34,069
This makes it almost impossible
to determine the exact time
379
00:25:34,070 --> 00:25:35,403
of the eruption.
380
00:25:43,808 --> 00:25:46,128
Volcanic ash is made up
of inorganic material,
381
00:25:46,129 --> 00:25:48,879
like stone or fragments of glass.
382
00:25:50,493 --> 00:25:53,162
Their age is indeterminable.
383
00:25:53,163 --> 00:25:56,217
Robert Dull has to rely on
the remains of living beings
384
00:25:56,218 --> 00:25:58,718
that died during the eruption.
385
00:26:01,866 --> 00:26:03,913
Wood is a great help here.
386
00:26:03,914 --> 00:26:05,794
It was carbonized in the scorching ash,
387
00:26:05,795 --> 00:26:07,847
but didn't burn up completely,
388
00:26:07,848 --> 00:26:10,253
due to the lack of oxygen.
389
00:26:10,254 --> 00:26:12,738
That is how it is possible to
narrow down the exact time
390
00:26:12,739 --> 00:26:14,072
of the eruption.
391
00:26:15,516 --> 00:26:16,497
It's a time capsule.
392
00:26:16,498 --> 00:26:18,569
It's a precise moment in time
393
00:26:18,570 --> 00:26:21,181
that's captured in this ash.
394
00:26:21,182 --> 00:26:23,621
So, when we dig these pieces of wood out,
395
00:26:23,622 --> 00:26:25,713
the smallest pieces that we find,
396
00:26:25,714 --> 00:26:27,634
the big tree trunks that we find,
397
00:26:27,635 --> 00:26:29,408
any piece of wood that we're able to pull
398
00:26:29,409 --> 00:26:30,836
out of this ash,
399
00:26:30,837 --> 00:26:34,101
can then directly be
associated with the time
400
00:26:34,102 --> 00:26:35,519
of the eruption.
401
00:26:40,164 --> 00:26:41,964
These are rare moments of joy
402
00:26:41,965 --> 00:26:44,239
for Robert Dull and his colleagues.
403
00:26:44,240 --> 00:26:47,261
Because the carbonized wood
has chemical substances
404
00:26:47,262 --> 00:26:50,736
that steadily decompose over the years,
405
00:26:50,737 --> 00:26:52,690
the tree's time of death can be determined
406
00:26:52,691 --> 00:26:56,774
by measuring the decomposition
in the laboratory.
407
00:27:02,382 --> 00:27:06,376
These samples have helped
us narrow the dating range
408
00:27:06,377 --> 00:27:10,507
from 120 years down to more like 20 years.
409
00:27:10,508 --> 00:27:12,331
And, we've really been able to pinpoint,
410
00:27:12,332 --> 00:27:16,405
and say, yes, Ilopango was not
a fifth century eruption,
411
00:27:16,406 --> 00:27:18,964
it happened in the early sixth century AD.
412
00:27:18,965 --> 00:27:21,202
Following the eruption,
413
00:27:21,203 --> 00:27:24,141
there was a cold spell of 15 years
414
00:27:24,142 --> 00:27:27,073
that reached all the way to Constantinople.
415
00:27:27,074 --> 00:27:30,424
Once there, the unknown
disease spreads further.
416
00:27:30,425 --> 00:27:33,463
In desperation, people turn to religion.
417
00:27:33,464 --> 00:27:36,648
Emperor Justinian even
mandates forced baptisms
418
00:27:36,649 --> 00:27:40,321
to appease the alleged wrath of God.
419
00:27:40,322 --> 00:27:42,007
But, to no avail.
420
00:27:42,008 --> 00:27:45,508
More and more residents fall sick and die.
421
00:27:51,177 --> 00:27:52,475
The disease spreads from Asia,
422
00:27:52,476 --> 00:27:56,643
all the way through the east
Roman Empire and Europe.
423
00:28:04,636 --> 00:28:06,586
It's trace goes all the way to Munich,
424
00:28:06,587 --> 00:28:08,504
and the suburb Ascheim.
425
00:28:09,458 --> 00:28:11,653
So many people died within a short period,
426
00:28:11,654 --> 00:28:16,070
that several bodies had to
be put into the same grave.
427
00:28:16,071 --> 00:28:20,295
But here, time has erased
almost all traces.
428
00:28:20,296 --> 00:28:22,751
The only surviving evidence
could possibly be found
429
00:28:22,752 --> 00:28:24,585
in the people's teeth.
430
00:28:40,754 --> 00:28:42,003
Holger Scholz, of the
431
00:28:42,004 --> 00:28:44,633
Institute for Microbiology
of the German Armed Forces,
432
00:28:44,634 --> 00:28:48,470
hopes to solve the riddle
by using forensic methods.
433
00:28:48,471 --> 00:28:51,990
Special suits protect the
samples against contamination,
434
00:28:51,991 --> 00:28:54,453
because one skin flake,
alone, is all it takes
435
00:28:54,454 --> 00:28:58,621
to soil the last DNA samples
before their analysis.
436
00:29:03,248 --> 00:29:06,526
The scientists manage to
isolate the genetic substance.
437
00:29:06,527 --> 00:29:07,976
It belongs to a bacteria
438
00:29:07,977 --> 00:29:10,743
that caused the deadliest
infectious disease
439
00:29:10,744 --> 00:29:13,366
in the history of human kind,
440
00:29:13,367 --> 00:29:16,699
Yersinia pestis, or the plague.
441
00:29:19,737 --> 00:29:21,248
The cooling off that happened back then,
442
00:29:21,249 --> 00:29:24,021
left a further weakening of the population.
443
00:29:24,022 --> 00:29:26,780
There were extreme famines,
444
00:29:26,781 --> 00:29:30,437
and that meant that people
didn't have enough to eat.
445
00:29:30,438 --> 00:29:32,509
Even rodents, that are an important factor
446
00:29:32,510 --> 00:29:34,212
for the transmission of the plague,
447
00:29:34,213 --> 00:29:35,950
retreated to the cities
448
00:29:35,951 --> 00:29:37,843
where there was still some food left,
449
00:29:37,844 --> 00:29:41,069
and that is obviously how
humans came into more contact
450
00:29:41,070 --> 00:29:42,653
with the pathogens.
451
00:29:48,068 --> 00:29:50,131
The plague's bacterium actually feeds
452
00:29:50,132 --> 00:29:52,384
off the blood of rodents.
453
00:29:52,385 --> 00:29:55,771
The connection to humans
is created by fleas.
454
00:29:55,772 --> 00:29:57,577
Once the flea changes its host,
455
00:29:57,578 --> 00:30:00,238
it transmits the pathogen,
456
00:30:00,239 --> 00:30:02,176
and the risk of an infection increases
457
00:30:02,177 --> 00:30:05,760
with every animal a human has contact with.
458
00:30:12,270 --> 00:30:13,630
There was terrible hygiene.
459
00:30:13,631 --> 00:30:15,489
The immune system was severely weakened.
460
00:30:15,490 --> 00:30:18,712
And all that, furthered the
expansion of the pathogen,
461
00:30:18,713 --> 00:30:22,880
which in turn cost the lives
of millions of people.
462
00:30:25,121 --> 00:30:27,458
Far away, the Ilopango in El Salvador
463
00:30:27,459 --> 00:30:29,848
changes the climate.
464
00:30:29,849 --> 00:30:31,464
Famine ensues.
465
00:30:31,465 --> 00:30:35,154
The population becomes more
vulnerable to the plague.
466
00:30:35,155 --> 00:30:37,933
The disease can strike anyone.
467
00:30:37,934 --> 00:30:42,017
It blurs the lines between
the rich and the poor.
468
00:30:47,593 --> 00:30:49,711
Panic and chaos ensues.
469
00:30:49,712 --> 00:30:51,551
There is no more food.
470
00:30:51,552 --> 00:30:55,292
The emperor cannot uphold law and order.
471
00:31:00,265 --> 00:31:01,947
The fact that the emperor, himself,
472
00:31:01,948 --> 00:31:03,663
was struck with the plague,
473
00:31:03,664 --> 00:31:07,327
obviously increased the
insecurity immensely.
474
00:31:07,328 --> 00:31:10,121
And, if one is seeing this
as one of God's plans,
475
00:31:10,122 --> 00:31:13,159
it was clear that the
emperor is being punished,
476
00:31:13,160 --> 00:31:17,327
and therefore was losing the
grounds of his legitimate rule.
477
00:31:21,485 --> 00:31:22,629
Even the emperor,
478
00:31:22,630 --> 00:31:26,051
who was godlike in the
eyes of the population,
479
00:31:26,052 --> 00:31:28,052
is struck by the plague.
480
00:31:36,328 --> 00:31:38,270
In view of the span of a human life,
481
00:31:38,271 --> 00:31:40,901
volcanic eruptions that
trigger climate chaos
482
00:31:40,902 --> 00:31:42,835
are comparatively rare.
483
00:31:42,836 --> 00:31:46,554
So rare in fact, that the
risk is often forgotten.
484
00:31:46,555 --> 00:31:47,784
But they have, nevertheless,
485
00:31:47,785 --> 00:31:50,359
been present throughout history.
486
00:31:50,360 --> 00:31:53,027
In 2014, danger came very close.
487
00:31:54,205 --> 00:31:55,588
The Bárdarbunga volcano in Iceland
488
00:31:55,589 --> 00:31:59,473
had been belching out
lava for several months.
489
00:31:59,474 --> 00:32:02,254
And, it still pumps about 35,000 tons
490
00:32:02,255 --> 00:32:05,437
of sulfur dioxide into the air.
491
00:32:05,438 --> 00:32:07,968
No one knows, yet, how the
eruption will develop,
492
00:32:07,969 --> 00:32:11,823
and when it is going to come to a halt.
493
00:32:11,824 --> 00:32:15,636
The volcano is located under
Europe's largest glacier.
494
00:32:15,637 --> 00:32:17,997
Once the lava comes too close to the ice,
495
00:32:17,998 --> 00:32:21,861
there's a possibility of
a hydrogen explosion.
496
00:32:21,862 --> 00:32:24,120
If this were to happen,
the gases would rise up,
497
00:32:24,121 --> 00:32:25,121
even higher.
498
00:32:26,674 --> 00:32:29,404
And, Iceland is close to western Europe.
499
00:32:29,405 --> 00:32:33,333
The sulfur could make it
all the way to Germany,
500
00:32:33,334 --> 00:32:35,917
even without such an explosion.
501
00:32:36,829 --> 00:32:41,650
One look into history reveals
the possible consequences.
502
00:32:41,651 --> 00:32:44,671
The winter of 1784 was
one of the hardest ever
503
00:32:44,672 --> 00:32:47,193
to hit central Europe.
504
00:32:47,194 --> 00:32:48,598
In the following spring,
505
00:32:48,599 --> 00:32:52,182
melt water and ice flooded down the rivers.
506
00:32:53,760 --> 00:32:55,109
The flood breaks bridges,
507
00:32:55,110 --> 00:32:58,698
causing many stretches
of land to disappear.
508
00:32:58,699 --> 00:33:02,226
There are severe floods in
Würzburg and other cities.
509
00:33:02,227 --> 00:33:05,165
Cologne reports a water
level of almost 14 meters,
510
00:33:05,166 --> 00:33:08,520
the highest water level ever measured.
511
00:33:15,979 --> 00:33:17,508
Even at the start of the eruption,
512
00:33:17,509 --> 00:33:20,759
volcanic gases drift to western Europe.
513
00:33:23,370 --> 00:33:26,426
John Grattan, a geographer
at the University of Wales,
514
00:33:26,427 --> 00:33:30,510
has assembled accounts of
contemporary witnesses.
515
00:33:31,530 --> 00:33:34,485
On the 23rd of June, 1783,
people across western Europe
516
00:33:34,486 --> 00:33:36,906
woke up to a changed world.
517
00:33:36,907 --> 00:33:38,367
Forests being stripped of their leaves,
518
00:33:38,368 --> 00:33:43,043
and there's an intense smell
of sulfur in the air.
519
00:33:43,044 --> 00:33:44,139
The cause of the disaster
520
00:33:44,140 --> 00:33:46,887
was the Icelandic volcano, Laki,
521
00:33:46,888 --> 00:33:48,426
a giant gap in the earth,
522
00:33:48,427 --> 00:33:51,854
that produces more than
6,000 cubic meters of lava
523
00:33:51,855 --> 00:33:52,855
per second.
524
00:33:53,746 --> 00:33:54,579
Within eight months,
525
00:33:54,580 --> 00:33:57,871
it releases approximately 120 million tons
526
00:33:57,872 --> 00:34:01,662
of sulfur dioxide, which
travels to western Europe
527
00:34:01,663 --> 00:34:04,163
and changes the local climate.
528
00:34:06,527 --> 00:34:07,901
There are very clear descriptions
529
00:34:07,902 --> 00:34:09,193
of people struggling to breathe,
530
00:34:09,194 --> 00:34:10,869
of an uncomfortable pressure
531
00:34:10,870 --> 00:34:13,078
palpitated through their hearts,
532
00:34:13,079 --> 00:34:15,897
of mysterious agues and fevers,
533
00:34:15,898 --> 00:34:20,065
of outbreaks of terrible
diarrhea of the bloody flocks.
534
00:34:22,292 --> 00:34:23,931
There are theories that imply
535
00:34:23,932 --> 00:34:26,524
that the Laki eruption is co-responsible
536
00:34:26,525 --> 00:34:28,692
for the French Revolution.
537
00:34:31,201 --> 00:34:34,339
Ever since then, Laki has been dormant.
538
00:34:34,340 --> 00:34:38,507
But, what would happen if
the giant awakens again?
539
00:34:39,498 --> 00:34:41,617
Today, the atmosphere
is a lot more polluted
540
00:34:41,618 --> 00:34:44,139
than during the eruption of Laki.
541
00:34:44,140 --> 00:34:46,010
Calculations show, that today,
542
00:34:46,011 --> 00:34:48,613
430,000 people die prematurely,
543
00:34:48,614 --> 00:34:52,256
due to the effects of dust particles.
544
00:34:52,257 --> 00:34:55,401
Industrial plants and traffic
pollute the environment,
545
00:34:55,402 --> 00:34:57,924
not only through emissions
of carbon dioxide,
546
00:34:57,925 --> 00:35:02,008
but also through very small
particles in the air.
547
00:35:02,874 --> 00:35:06,930
Volcanic gases would burn the
atmosphere even further.
548
00:35:06,931 --> 00:35:08,366
Scientists have calculated
549
00:35:08,367 --> 00:35:09,819
that if this were to happen,
550
00:35:09,820 --> 00:35:13,487
there would be 140,000
more deaths per year.
551
00:35:15,927 --> 00:35:17,470
The purpose of the
552
00:35:17,471 --> 00:35:19,998
Federal Office of Citizen
Protection and Disaster Assistance
553
00:35:19,999 --> 00:35:21,044
in Bonn,
554
00:35:21,045 --> 00:35:24,712
is to organize quick aid
in times of crisis.
555
00:35:30,887 --> 00:35:34,016
Christoph Unger is in
charge of the institution.
556
00:35:34,017 --> 00:35:36,368
He and his co-workers develop strategies
557
00:35:36,369 --> 00:35:40,036
to prepare for multiple
instances of crisis.
558
00:35:41,676 --> 00:35:43,560
Are we prepared for a volcanic eruption
559
00:35:43,561 --> 00:35:45,144
happening far away?
560
00:35:54,037 --> 00:35:55,346
At the moment we are not preparing
561
00:35:55,347 --> 00:35:57,640
for gases or dust particles in the air
562
00:35:57,641 --> 00:35:59,724
that might reach Germany.
563
00:36:01,871 --> 00:36:04,495
But the consequences of a volcanic winter
564
00:36:04,496 --> 00:36:08,047
are comparable to today's weather extremes.
565
00:36:08,048 --> 00:36:11,031
The onset of a cold spell could
have far reaching effects,
566
00:36:11,032 --> 00:36:14,630
as the example of the Münsterland shows.
567
00:36:14,631 --> 00:36:16,486
In 2005 there is a snow storm,
568
00:36:16,487 --> 00:36:19,079
leaving up to half a meter of snow.
569
00:36:19,080 --> 00:36:21,569
Power poles fall over under the weight.
570
00:36:21,570 --> 00:36:23,626
And, there are entire stretches of land
571
00:36:23,627 --> 00:36:26,297
that are plunged into darkness.
572
00:36:26,298 --> 00:36:29,332
250,000 people are without electricity.
573
00:36:29,333 --> 00:36:31,580
Some, even for several days.
574
00:36:31,581 --> 00:36:34,171
And that, was relatively harmless.
575
00:36:34,172 --> 00:36:38,172
A blackout of a larger
area would be disastrous.
576
00:36:40,611 --> 00:36:42,709
No radio, no TV, no computers.
577
00:36:42,710 --> 00:36:44,588
There's hardly any cash left,
578
00:36:44,589 --> 00:36:46,613
so you can't buy anything.
579
00:36:46,614 --> 00:36:49,926
Gas stations need electricity
to pump gasoline.
580
00:36:49,927 --> 00:36:52,778
Security systems wouldn't work.
581
00:36:52,779 --> 00:36:56,696
It would have a huge
impact on our social life.
582
00:36:59,556 --> 00:37:00,558
In the last years,
583
00:37:00,559 --> 00:37:03,447
Germany has repeatedly had
to fight with cold weather
584
00:37:03,448 --> 00:37:05,115
and high water levels,
585
00:37:05,116 --> 00:37:08,980
but not to the extent as
after the Laki eruption
586
00:37:08,981 --> 00:37:11,138
in the 17th century.
587
00:37:11,139 --> 00:37:12,780
In such a catastrophic case,
588
00:37:12,781 --> 00:37:16,717
the danger of infectious
diseases would increase.
589
00:37:16,718 --> 00:37:20,885
What would happen if 30% of
the population fell sick?
590
00:37:21,988 --> 00:37:24,143
We have a problem with supply.
591
00:37:24,144 --> 00:37:27,035
Because, the supply chains would break.
592
00:37:27,036 --> 00:37:29,932
There'd be very different
kinds of problems in security
593
00:37:29,933 --> 00:37:32,795
in vulnerable institutions,
594
00:37:32,796 --> 00:37:34,907
where there wouldn't be
enough personnel at hand,
595
00:37:34,908 --> 00:37:36,197
and there's even the question of
596
00:37:36,198 --> 00:37:38,964
who would be vaccinated, when.
597
00:37:38,965 --> 00:37:43,119
Who will receive the very
short supplies of vaccines?
598
00:37:43,120 --> 00:37:46,017
This would lead to an
immense impact on all areas
599
00:37:46,018 --> 00:37:47,935
in society, as a whole.
600
00:37:53,045 --> 00:37:54,237
The residents of Constantinople
601
00:37:54,238 --> 00:37:56,341
don't fare any different.
602
00:37:56,342 --> 00:37:58,463
And not knowing the cause of the disease,
603
00:37:58,464 --> 00:38:01,353
makes them even more afraid.
604
00:38:01,354 --> 00:38:02,366
More and more,
605
00:38:02,367 --> 00:38:05,192
the city is overwhelmed with the plague.
606
00:38:05,193 --> 00:38:07,391
It isn't just the people that fall sick,
607
00:38:07,392 --> 00:38:11,150
but the system itself that
is beginning to fail.
608
00:38:11,151 --> 00:38:12,323
Panic ensues.
609
00:38:12,324 --> 00:38:14,157
Civilization unravels.
610
00:38:22,395 --> 00:38:24,019
There simply wasn't enough population
611
00:38:24,020 --> 00:38:25,815
and military capacity
612
00:38:25,816 --> 00:38:29,860
to protect these regions and these cities,
613
00:38:29,861 --> 00:38:34,606
because the plague had
decimated too many of them.
614
00:38:34,607 --> 00:38:35,980
And it isn't just the effects
615
00:38:35,981 --> 00:38:37,898
on the people's health.
616
00:38:39,490 --> 00:38:42,905
The plague kills soldiers and taxpayers.
617
00:38:42,906 --> 00:38:47,072
Trust in the power of the state
has been gravely damaged.
618
00:38:47,073 --> 00:38:50,510
Even after 100 years, the empire
cannot defeat the onslaught
619
00:38:50,511 --> 00:38:51,594
of the Arabs.
620
00:39:05,795 --> 00:39:07,756
And that is how the
eruption of the Ilopango
621
00:39:07,757 --> 00:39:11,924
might have also heralded the
end of antiquity itself.
622
00:39:19,978 --> 00:39:21,874
Since the time of Emperor Justinian,
623
00:39:21,875 --> 00:39:26,376
the world population has grown
to over 7 billion people.
624
00:39:26,377 --> 00:39:29,640
And, more than half of them live in cities,
625
00:39:29,641 --> 00:39:34,424
and depend on transport,
trade, and telecommunication.
626
00:39:34,425 --> 00:39:37,332
Can you protect all these people
against a volcanic eruption
627
00:39:37,333 --> 00:39:39,083
with a global effect?
628
00:39:43,456 --> 00:39:47,582
There are about 15 hundred
active volcanoes worldwide,
629
00:39:47,583 --> 00:39:50,254
but only 100 of them are
under local surveillance
630
00:39:50,255 --> 00:39:51,672
by observatories,
631
00:39:53,008 --> 00:39:54,819
and the last eruption
of the other volcanoes
632
00:39:54,820 --> 00:39:56,237
isn't even known.
633
00:39:57,158 --> 00:39:59,621
But, even if the volcanoes
are well monitored,
634
00:39:59,622 --> 00:40:02,705
an eruption is still hard to predict.
635
00:40:08,900 --> 00:40:13,067
Even experienced scientists
can make horrendous mistakes.
636
00:40:20,498 --> 00:40:23,795
In 1993, an international
team of researchers
637
00:40:23,796 --> 00:40:26,726
perform measurements on the
peak of the Colombian volcano,
638
00:40:26,727 --> 00:40:27,727
Galeras.
639
00:40:28,506 --> 00:40:30,096
They are in good spirits.
640
00:40:30,097 --> 00:40:31,926
Nobody seems to be bothered by the mist
641
00:40:31,927 --> 00:40:34,844
that covers the view on the crater.
642
00:40:44,564 --> 00:40:47,209
Suddenly, the volcanologists
are taken aback
643
00:40:47,210 --> 00:40:49,769
by a hydrogen explosion.
644
00:40:49,770 --> 00:40:53,024
Rocks and small particles
fly up in the air.
645
00:40:53,025 --> 00:40:57,192
One part of the group is still
on the inside of the crater.
646
00:41:05,587 --> 00:41:08,989
There is no hope for these nine people.
647
00:41:08,990 --> 00:41:11,083
Others are severely injured.
648
00:41:11,084 --> 00:41:14,584
A joyous trip has turned into a nightmare.
649
00:41:29,412 --> 00:41:32,666
Only two months later, the
volcano erupts again.
650
00:41:32,667 --> 00:41:35,897
This time, it also hits the
scientists' research station
651
00:41:35,898 --> 00:41:40,065
that was seen as secure, at the
time of the first eruption.
652
00:41:54,010 --> 00:41:56,559
So, even in modern times,
653
00:41:56,560 --> 00:41:59,587
even in the developed
world and rich countries,
654
00:41:59,588 --> 00:42:02,476
the level of preparedness is not adequate
655
00:42:02,477 --> 00:42:06,330
to handle such a large, sudden event.
656
00:42:06,331 --> 00:42:08,597
And, no matter how many instruments we have
657
00:42:08,598 --> 00:42:13,206
measuring small earthquakes and
measuring Earth's elevation
658
00:42:13,207 --> 00:42:16,818
as it rises, in anticipation
of an earthquake,
659
00:42:16,819 --> 00:42:19,902
we can't always predict these events.
660
00:42:21,708 --> 00:42:23,198
So, even if scientists know
661
00:42:23,199 --> 00:42:25,654
that a volcanic eruption
is about to happen,
662
00:42:25,655 --> 00:42:28,360
do they know the course of the eruption?
663
00:42:28,361 --> 00:42:32,127
In 1980, Mt. St. Helens
announced another eruption
664
00:42:32,128 --> 00:42:34,786
through several small earthquakes.
665
00:42:34,787 --> 00:42:37,474
It is located on the west coast of the USA,
666
00:42:37,475 --> 00:42:41,642
close to the major cities
of Portland and Seattle.
667
00:42:42,597 --> 00:42:45,033
Richard Waitt, of the US Geological Survey,
668
00:42:45,034 --> 00:42:46,951
witnessed the eruption.
669
00:42:51,613 --> 00:42:53,889
As so many others, he was
convinced that he knew
670
00:42:53,890 --> 00:42:55,973
what was going to happen.
671
00:43:01,398 --> 00:43:04,067
By late March, this word, bulge,
672
00:43:04,068 --> 00:43:06,251
was on everybody's lips.
673
00:43:06,252 --> 00:43:10,866
So, it got big enough that,
and the volcano steep enough
674
00:43:10,867 --> 00:43:12,070
that many people suspected,
675
00:43:12,071 --> 00:43:15,220
at some point it's gonna start landsliding.
676
00:43:15,221 --> 00:43:17,999
What was expected, though, is that there be
677
00:43:18,000 --> 00:43:19,414
a series of small landslides
678
00:43:19,415 --> 00:43:20,486
and that would be a warning
679
00:43:20,487 --> 00:43:22,570
and people could get out.
680
00:43:23,467 --> 00:43:25,552
The eruption was announced in the media,
681
00:43:25,553 --> 00:43:29,303
and drew more and more
onlookers to the area.
682
00:43:31,196 --> 00:43:35,363
But then, Mt. St. Helens erupts
in a totally unexpected way.
683
00:43:37,433 --> 00:43:41,419
An earthquake let's the entire
north slope slide down.
684
00:43:41,420 --> 00:43:44,633
The mountain explodes, due
the the loss of pressure.
685
00:43:44,634 --> 00:43:48,301
Mud and small stones
rush down the hillside.
686
00:43:53,013 --> 00:43:54,305
No, that was not anticipated.
687
00:43:54,306 --> 00:43:56,225
It went over one ridge, down into a valley,
688
00:43:56,226 --> 00:43:57,238
over the next ridge,
689
00:43:57,239 --> 00:43:59,431
and just kept going out and out,
690
00:43:59,432 --> 00:44:01,621
20 kilometers, 30 kilometers maybe.
691
00:44:01,622 --> 00:44:02,948
I don't even know how far it went.
692
00:44:02,949 --> 00:44:04,485
But, way out.
693
00:44:04,486 --> 00:44:08,088
And, nobody anticipated anything like that.
694
00:44:08,089 --> 00:44:10,166
Ash, clouds, and mudslides overrun
695
00:44:10,167 --> 00:44:11,807
the fleeing people.
696
00:44:11,808 --> 00:44:13,058
57 people died.
697
00:44:14,513 --> 00:44:17,263
Among them, are scientists
that miscalculated the impact
698
00:44:17,264 --> 00:44:18,597
of the eruption.
699
00:44:20,376 --> 00:44:23,304
The surrounding area is covered in dust.
700
00:44:23,305 --> 00:44:26,516
540 million tons of
volcanic ash are dispersed
701
00:44:26,517 --> 00:44:29,934
over an area larger than the Netherlands.
702
00:44:35,096 --> 00:44:38,482
Only weeks later, the
immensity becomes clear.
703
00:44:38,483 --> 00:44:41,112
There is a huge hole in the volcanic cone.
704
00:44:41,113 --> 00:44:43,492
The desertificated area,
in front of the opening,
705
00:44:43,493 --> 00:44:47,253
is over 600 square kilometers large.
706
00:44:47,254 --> 00:44:48,385
As a comparison,
707
00:44:48,386 --> 00:44:51,368
the eruption of the Ilopango, in 540 AD,
708
00:44:51,369 --> 00:44:53,702
was about 10 times as large.
709
00:44:54,578 --> 00:44:57,296
So, we do know that modern
science can help us
710
00:44:57,297 --> 00:45:01,849
predict, somewhat, when
these events will occur.
711
00:45:01,850 --> 00:45:05,603
But, we've never been tested
on the level of Ilopango.
712
00:45:05,604 --> 00:45:09,417
We've never had a massive
eruption, of this size,
713
00:45:09,418 --> 00:45:12,798
near a densely populated urban center.
714
00:45:12,799 --> 00:45:13,871
Never.
715
00:45:13,872 --> 00:45:17,905
So, what happens when this
happens near Seattle?
716
00:45:17,906 --> 00:45:20,495
What happens when this happens in Naples?
717
00:45:20,496 --> 00:45:24,663
Will our technology be good
enough to get everybody out?
718
00:45:28,402 --> 00:45:30,475
There are more than 67 large cities,
719
00:45:30,476 --> 00:45:35,006
worldwide, located close
to an active volcano.
720
00:45:35,007 --> 00:45:38,173
That means there are
about 116 million people
721
00:45:38,174 --> 00:45:41,591
living dangerously close to these giants.
722
00:45:42,791 --> 00:45:44,857
There are already 37 million of them,
723
00:45:44,858 --> 00:45:47,111
living in the area of Tokyo,
724
00:45:47,112 --> 00:45:49,734
in the shadow of Mt. Fuji.
725
00:45:49,735 --> 00:45:53,300
Its last big eruption happened
more than 300 years ago.
726
00:45:53,301 --> 00:45:57,468
Geologically speaking, this
is the blink of an eye.
727
00:45:58,768 --> 00:46:01,286
If it were to erupt, its
ashes would destroy
728
00:46:01,287 --> 00:46:04,454
the entire infrastructure of the city.
729
00:46:11,789 --> 00:46:14,463
The situation in Seattle isn't much better.
730
00:46:14,464 --> 00:46:17,879
Scientists see Mt. Rainier as
one of the sleeping giants
731
00:46:17,880 --> 00:46:20,297
that could erupt at any time.
732
00:46:23,578 --> 00:46:25,909
Even in Europe, it's dangerous.
733
00:46:25,910 --> 00:46:29,909
Mt. Vesuvius, alone, could
destroy Naples entirely.
734
00:46:29,910 --> 00:46:31,837
But there's an even larger magma chamber
735
00:46:31,838 --> 00:46:33,588
in the Bay of Naples.
736
00:46:40,399 --> 00:46:43,374
The Soufriere Hills Volcano,
located close to Plymouth,
737
00:46:43,375 --> 00:46:46,193
the capital of the Caribbean
island of Montserrat,
738
00:46:46,194 --> 00:46:49,247
can provide a glimpse
into the possible effects
739
00:46:49,248 --> 00:46:52,665
of an eruption happening close to a city.
740
00:46:53,623 --> 00:46:55,440
Before the city was buried under its ashes,
741
00:46:55,441 --> 00:46:59,609
several times, there were
4,000 people living here.
742
00:46:59,610 --> 00:47:01,693
Hardly anyone has stayed.
743
00:47:07,132 --> 00:47:09,799
Today, Plymouth is a ghost town.
744
00:47:14,320 --> 00:47:16,694
Volcanic eruptions are a global threat.
745
00:47:16,695 --> 00:47:20,630
But, their awakening also
offers new possibilities,
746
00:47:20,631 --> 00:47:23,272
because with every one of these eruptions,
747
00:47:23,273 --> 00:47:26,831
scientists learn more about them.
748
00:47:26,832 --> 00:47:29,656
One such example is Mt. St. Helens.
749
00:47:29,657 --> 00:47:31,393
Even if every giant is unique,
750
00:47:31,394 --> 00:47:33,564
a few of the results taken from here
751
00:47:33,565 --> 00:47:37,415
can be applied to other volcanoes as well.
752
00:47:37,416 --> 00:47:40,420
This is a birthplace of modern volcanology
753
00:47:40,421 --> 00:47:41,510
in many ways,
754
00:47:41,511 --> 00:47:44,610
especially some of the
extraordinary events.
755
00:47:44,611 --> 00:47:48,336
This landslide, there's
probably four or 500 volcanoes
756
00:47:48,337 --> 00:47:49,613
around the world now,
757
00:47:49,614 --> 00:47:51,269
that have had a landslide, we know of,
758
00:47:51,270 --> 00:47:52,103
because of this.
759
00:47:52,104 --> 00:47:56,270
I mean, this is what opened the
door to understanding that.
760
00:47:59,167 --> 00:48:00,311
Only a few years ago,
761
00:48:00,312 --> 00:48:03,898
a young geologist developed
a ground breaking method.
762
00:48:03,899 --> 00:48:06,100
It enables us to predict
a volcanic eruption
763
00:48:06,101 --> 00:48:07,351
more precisely.
764
00:48:09,633 --> 00:48:12,242
Today, experts from the
US Geological Survey
765
00:48:12,243 --> 00:48:15,993
fly to the top of the
mountain several times.
766
00:48:17,067 --> 00:48:20,143
Down here, it's about 30
degrees in the shade.
767
00:48:20,144 --> 00:48:22,307
But, on top, the scientists have to deal
768
00:48:22,308 --> 00:48:24,641
with very cold temperatures.
769
00:48:28,990 --> 00:48:31,990
Angela Diefenbach monitors
the volcano from the air.
770
00:48:31,991 --> 00:48:33,743
The most important point for her,
771
00:48:33,744 --> 00:48:36,135
is that the method is simple, flexible,
772
00:48:36,136 --> 00:48:39,008
and affordable enough for
developing countries,
773
00:48:39,009 --> 00:48:40,953
where a lot of volcanoes are not monitored
774
00:48:40,954 --> 00:48:42,979
on a regular basis.
775
00:48:42,980 --> 00:48:44,409
You can use a point and shoot camera,
776
00:48:44,410 --> 00:48:45,570
or a smart phone camera.
777
00:48:45,571 --> 00:48:47,299
You just want to make
sure you have good lens
778
00:48:47,300 --> 00:48:48,443
characteristics.
779
00:48:48,444 --> 00:48:49,382
So, you don't want,
780
00:48:49,383 --> 00:48:51,027
like a GoPro camera wouldn't be that good
781
00:48:51,028 --> 00:48:52,212
for this type of work,
782
00:48:52,213 --> 00:48:54,352
because you have a lot
of radial distortion,
783
00:48:54,353 --> 00:48:57,375
and that translates into your model.
784
00:49:10,903 --> 00:49:12,717
Currently, there is a plug of cold lava
785
00:49:12,718 --> 00:49:14,943
that keeps the volcano shut.
786
00:49:14,944 --> 00:49:18,030
This so-called lava dome is dangerous,
787
00:49:18,031 --> 00:49:20,371
because it stores pressure underneath it.
788
00:49:20,372 --> 00:49:23,419
Any change in the surface could be a sign
789
00:49:23,420 --> 00:49:25,337
of a possible eruption.
790
00:49:45,927 --> 00:49:47,932
Angela Diefenbach shoots her photos
791
00:49:47,933 --> 00:49:50,433
from a precisely chosen angle.
792
00:50:01,557 --> 00:50:04,557
The brilliance of the idea is
that the photos form a basis
793
00:50:04,558 --> 00:50:08,381
on which her computer generates
an exact 3-D replica
794
00:50:08,382 --> 00:50:09,632
of the volcano.
795
00:50:10,878 --> 00:50:13,224
If she, then, compares the
data to earlier flights,
796
00:50:13,225 --> 00:50:17,225
the smallest changes become
visible immediately.
797
00:50:20,741 --> 00:50:23,995
This method can even be
applied during an eruption,
798
00:50:23,996 --> 00:50:26,333
because it is often in the last moment
799
00:50:26,334 --> 00:50:30,501
that one can predict how the
giant is truly going to act.
800
00:50:35,442 --> 00:50:37,859
This particular lava dome
doesn't pose much of a threat,
801
00:50:37,860 --> 00:50:42,259
because it erupted very slowly
and it was relatively cool
802
00:50:42,260 --> 00:50:43,265
when it erupted.
803
00:50:43,266 --> 00:50:45,484
But, other lava domes, other volcanoes,
804
00:50:45,485 --> 00:50:47,399
tend to collapse,
805
00:50:47,400 --> 00:50:51,389
either from big explosions
or by gravitational forces.
806
00:50:51,390 --> 00:50:53,816
And, when they collapse, they
produce pyroclastic flows,
807
00:50:53,817 --> 00:50:56,734
which are very dangerous to people.
808
00:51:00,502 --> 00:51:04,003
Mt. St. Helens is a very
well monitored volcano,
809
00:51:04,004 --> 00:51:06,531
but there are many sleeping
giants all over the world
810
00:51:06,532 --> 00:51:09,032
that can hardly be researched.
811
00:51:10,094 --> 00:51:12,156
There is a huge, seething lava lake
812
00:51:12,157 --> 00:51:15,670
in the Democratic Republic
of Congo, for example.
813
00:51:15,671 --> 00:51:18,373
The Nyriagongo lies in
the middle of an area
814
00:51:18,374 --> 00:51:21,041
that is torn apart by civil war.
815
00:51:22,927 --> 00:51:26,435
And, even if the giants lie in
sparsely populated regions,
816
00:51:26,436 --> 00:51:29,918
like the Tavurvur in Papua New Guinea,
817
00:51:29,919 --> 00:51:34,086
their load of sulfur can reach
any corner of the world.
818
00:51:43,817 --> 00:51:47,787
This is why Angela Diefenbach's
method is so beneficial.
819
00:51:47,788 --> 00:51:50,205
It helps to assess the risks.
820
00:51:56,832 --> 00:52:00,059
But scientists can nevertheless,
only warn in time.
821
00:52:01,319 --> 00:52:04,986
They cannot stop an
eruption from happening.
822
00:52:09,939 --> 00:52:11,700
In the midst of big cities,
823
00:52:11,701 --> 00:52:14,619
life seems to be as safe as ever,
824
00:52:14,620 --> 00:52:18,787
but history shows that some
things aren't as they seem.
64905
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