All language subtitles for years.of.living.dangerously.s02e02.1080p.web.h264-cbfm_track4_[eng]

Miami...

Or as I like to call it, Shangri-La.

Where old people come to retire,

and young people
come to stay young.

It's one of America's
most vital cities.

Always wondered what it'd be like
to get a place down here.

Maybe a swanky pad like this one?

It's got all the amenities:

custom gourmet kitchen,

the soaking tub,

and of course,
unobstructed views of the water.

And this is the guy
who would sell it to me.

So, gorgeous property.

-A very nice home.
-This is it. This is the life.

Yeah. We are
on the Venetian Islands now.

Basically, it separates Miami Beach
from downtown Miami.

Unbelievable.
And this is like the most desired...

-neighborhood-ish, right?
-This is amazing. Exactly.

And, in fact,
are property values going up?

The values are going up like crazy.

I mean, it's amazing what you see
five years ago, today,

the increases in prices
are incredible.

Miami is beautiful.
You have the weather...

It's really like the place to be.

Do people talk about climate change
and the rising sea levels?

Is that a concern
of any of your clients?

For my clients and other friends
in the industry, it's not a concern.

Because it's paradise,
it's tropical, it's gorgeous.

And yet, it is,
according to the scientists,

one of the most vulnerable
to climate change.

Sea rises a couple of feet,
this whole thing gets...

But no one... It's just like,
"Yeah, nah, whatevs."

When I was a kid,
sea level rise wasn't even a thing.

Back then, oceans were scary
because of pirates,

sharks, and violent storms.

I was on the phone with my father
during Hurricane Katrina

when the line went dead.

I was amazed I ever saw him again.

It's my brother
standing on his house.

Everything he ever had was gone.

That's crazy.

We used to kick
the soccer ball right here.

This is my family's neighborhood.

The neighborhood I loved.

Everyone who stayed
went into their attics.

But the problem is
the water kept going,

and there was no way
for them to ever get out.

There were body bags
all along the road.

Ever since Katrina,

it seems to me that storms are
coming faster and more furiously.

To find out
whether this is all just in my head,

I'm here in the Bahamas,
with my wife Nikki,

about to rendezvous
with a team of top scientists

on that boat down there.

Their mission:

to understand what effect
human-caused climate change

will have on the storms
of the future.

Who wouldn't want to live in Miami?

It's beautiful!

But is sea level rise something
people here have to worry about?

To find out, I've arranged to meet
with a scientist named Keren Bolter.

She lives in south Florida, and says
she'll give me the low down.

Today, she's introducing me

to two top climate scientists
in Florida,

Ben Kirtman and Harold Wanless.

So what are we looking at here?

So, here we go.
This is what it looks like in 2030.

Everything in red
is going to be under water.

-Whoa.
-In 15 years,

during the extreme tide in October,

every high tide
is going to be this high.

That's just 15 years from now.
Now, let's look at 2060.

High tide in October,

areas that will be below sea level.

It's uninhabitable.

I can't believe what I'm looking at.

Whole parts of Miami, gone?

I had no idea it could be this bad.

And so soon.

And you know a hurricane in October

is not unheard of,
that happens here.

So, now you have
sea level rise and storm surge,

think about how much flooding
they'll suffer during a major event.

If a storm surge hit in 2060,

this is what's vulnerable
once the sea level's that high.

And you're looking
at less than 50 years in the future.

I was in a movie called Waterworld.

And it got really bad reviews.

But now we can see
that we were right.

Can you show me on the map

what the worst-case scenario is
for, say, 2100?

The high projections for 2100
are 6.6 feet.

When the tide is highest,

everything in red
will be under water.

-Whoa.
-Yeah. The entire county.

There's no safe place.

There's no more Miami.

The port facility is compromised,

the airport's compromised.

No fresh water resources.

Also, just because there's places
that are above water,

if there's no roads
going to the place,

it's essentially cut off
from civilization.

And that's what we're telling
communities to plan for.

We're not just looking
at South Florida.

This is a proxy for all
the coastal areas of the world,

the Mumbai's, the Shanghai's.

-Yeah.
-The Atlantic cities.

There's gonna be, like,
massive migrations of humanity

moving to different parts
of the world

just to survive, right?
We're talkin'...

It's going to happen
in the coming centuries,

because all of this carbon
that we put into the atmosphere,

it hasn't even started
to make its impact.

There's such a time lag.

The big urgency is that every year
we don't do anything,

we're warming the ocean more.

And it's that heat
that's accelerating melting of ice.

And that's the scary part.

We need to start thinking
about how we build and plan,

not for the next five years,
but for the next hundred years.

I really had no idea that all
the carbon dioxide we've emitted

will continue to do damage
for decades raising the seas,

all around the world.

What are the millions of people
who live on the coasts

supposed to do?

Just 40 miles from Miami,

Nikki and I are about to embark
on a week-long science expedition.

Hi!

As scary as hurricanes are to me,

I've got to admit I'm excited
to be on this ship, The Alucia,

a state-of-the-art research vessel.

-Jeff. Nice to meet you.
-Such a pleasure, man. Truly.

Do you want to see the ship?

Our host for the voyage
is Jeff Donnelly.

He's a top geologist
with the famed Woods Hole

Oceanographic Institution
in Massachusetts.

These are the submarines.
We'll be going down in these.

-There's Al in there.
-Hey, Al. This is Nikki.

Hey, guys.

We're going down in a submarine?

Okay.

I'm dying to know more
about this mission,

and to see
if there really is a connection

between a warming planet
and more violent storms.

-Here's the bridge.
-Okay.

-There's Captain Frank over there.
-Hi, Frank.

Thanks for driving us.

Many of the hurricanes
that are impacting the US

are sort of tracking here
through the Bahamas and past Cuba.

This is Cay Sal Bank here.
This is where we're headed.

And we're in this area,
specifically, because...?

It's a submerged bank
off the Florida coast.

It has some really deep holes in it,
called "blue holes."

These blue holes
accumulate sediment through time

that actually provides a record
of past hurricanes.

This marine sediment is getting
washed in, day in and out,

and just accumulating
in this beautiful pile.

That's just perfectly
collecting sediment over time?

So it's really well positioned
to be sort of our weather station,

monitoring the hurricanes
that have impacted North America,

going back hundreds of years,
and even millennia.

It's fascinating to learn
that these underwater caves,

called blue holes,

actually contain
the history of hurricanes.

To reveal that history,

Jeff explains that he drills
long tubes into the sea floor.

I'm gonna lift it up, you're gonna
put a cap on it. Fast as you can.

Pulling up layers of mud.

Let's get it up on the deck.

Revealing the core sample inside.

It's those strata that hold
ancient clues about our future.

Hurricanes are often related
to sea surface temperature.

So, one concern is that
with the planet warming so much,

we might see hurricanes
getting much more intense.

An increase in frequency,
or in intensity? Or both?

We're wrestling with that.

It's those, you know,
Cat 3, Cat 4, Cat 5 hurricanes

that our computer models suggest

will actually increase
with global warming.

So, the data
that you could be collecting here

could tell us that we are heading

into a new age
of superstorms, basically?

We have a climate experiment
that's run over millennia

telling us when you get
warm sea temperatures,

you should get many more,
very intense hurricanes.

-"Nature's Climate Experiment."
-That's right.

-So, the short answer is, "Yes."
-Yeah.

Wow. That's Cuba.

The blue hole we're gonna look at
is right there.

Has anyone ever done
this work before?

No, I mean,
this is really hard to do.

We're in the middle of the ocean,
going into a quite shallow area,

so you can't get a really large
oceanographic ship in here.

But yet, when you get there,
you have to core down 300 feet,

so you need some significant
piece of equipment to do that.

It's a really challenging
place to work.

If the weather doesn't cooperate,

if the equipment breaks,
somebody gets hurt,

it's possible
we could walk away with nothing.

I can't believe
I'm on this groundbreaking mission

to explore a blue hole.

We're going to look into the past

to discover the future of hurricanes
that could someday make landfall.

As I ponder Miami's future,

I can't help but notice
how normal everyone's acting.

Don't they realize the city's
on the verge of a major crisis?

Already streets are flooding
during some high tides,

salt water bubbling up from drains
and making things miserable.

But it seems
that sea level rise isn't a priority

for some of Florida's
top politicians,

like second-term governor,
Rick Scott.

Officials in Florida's Department
of Environmental Protection

were banned from using the words
"climate change"

in official reports
and communications.

Scott's office
denied there was a policy.

But state workers seemed to be
dancing around

the terms at a hearing.

Future versions
of our mitigation plan

will be required to have language
discussing that issue.

What issue is that?

The issue you mentioned earlier...

Thank you so much.

So, are there any politicians here
who are taking things seriously?

Turns out there's one
right here in Miami Beach.

-Mayor Philip Levine.
-Nice to see you too.

We're all fighting
against sea level rise.

We believe
that if we organize together,

hopefully our voice
will be much louder.

If there is a politician
who can help save Miami,

I gotta meet him.

Mayor Levine?
Good to meet you.

Welcome to Miami Beach.

So, Mayor,
what kind of things are you doing

to prepare for what's, you know,
what's coming and what's happening?

Basically, the sea level goes up,

the bay goes up.

And the water comes out
of our drains onto our streets.

So what we did right away

is we started putting in
massive pumps,

under the ground, to push the water
back out to where it came.

We also began raising the roads.

For example,
the area you're in right now,

you see how low we are.

We've actually raised
the street higher.

Two years ago.

-That's what this is?
-Exactly.

But what about this when it floods?
This is not higher.

There are drains around us
where the water will go into.

So, we're lower.
There's drains here.

That's a higher street.
This will not flood.

We believe
it's a good 40/50-year solution.

-You see this...
-We're not raising them for today.

-It's a 50-year solution?
-Absolutely.

But the forecast for Miami
seemed to be pretty grim.

They're talking about, you know,
the end of this century,

most of Miami being under water.

I don't necessarily agree
with those forecasts.

I believe in climate change,
and I believe it's human-made.

And I believe
that the seas are rising.

I'm not sure I believe

in the very aggressive forecasts
put out there.

Okay, but at this current pace
of sea level rise,

Miami will be submerged
unless something drastic is done.

Yes. I'm optimistic,
I believe we can get it done.

You know,
one of our biggest obstacles, Jack,

is that we have a state
with a governor and a cabinet

that don't believe
in sea level rise,

and they've turned a blind eye.

And they say, "We don't believe it,
we don't see a sense of urgency."

And we're trying
to convince the governor,

"Forget about politics, understand
that your streets are flooding.

You have coastal cities
that need help."

Mayor Levine may only be planning
a few decades out,

but at least he's trying.

What about that governor,
Rick Scott?

Hi, this is Jack Black
calling for Governor Scott.

My Hollywood cred
doesn't get me through.

Thank you, I appreciate it.

The best I can do
is leave my number.

Okay, mission not accomplished.

As we make our way

toward the mysterious blue hole
off the coast of Cuba,

I learn there really is reason
to fear more storms like Katrina.

Baby, listen to this.

"In a 2012 study, a major finding
was that Katrina-size surges

have been twice as frequent
in warm years

compared with cold years."

It's crazy.
That's what they're talking about.

"In a 2013 paper, Grinsted
and his colleagues estimate..."

Whoa! "...a doubling
of Katrina magnitude events

associated with the warming
over the 20th century."

-Just the 20th century. It's crazy.
-The 20th century.

"The study concludes we have
probably crossed the threshold

where Katrina magnitude
hurricane surges

are more likely caused
by global warming than not."

In the early daylight hour
of the next morning,

day three
on the magnificent ship, Alucia,

we're approaching our destination:
the blue hole.

I'm dying to see
this underwater cave

Jeff and his team
have been talking so much about.

Let's do this.

It's a shallow water alarm
sort of telling us it's too shallow.

Six under the keel.

Six meters underneath the keel.

-We're okay.
-For the moment.

Yeah, okay, I might come hard left
and see if we can run across it.

Roger.

All right,
this is the wall right here.

You can see the blue hole
coming in there now.

-Okay.
-Pretty cool.

Dr. Donnelly,
there's your blue hole, man.

Would it really be possible
to raise up the entire city of Miami

to save it from big storms
and sea level rise,

the way Mayor Levine
wants to on Miami Beach?

I decide to talk to another mayor,
Phil Stoddard, of South Miami,

to get his take.

Mr. Mayor, I just came
from a lunch with Mayor Levine.

And his solution seems to be,

we'll just lift the city up.
We're going to lift up the streets.

His plan will work for a while,

and it will work on Miami Beach,

because Miami Beach has a very high
income level per square mile.

If you go out
to West Miami-Dade County,

the land does not generate
enough income

to do the kind of projects
Levine talks about.

There's just not enough money.

But is it even
a realistic goal to say,

"Let's lift the whole city up
three feet"?

It seems insane to me.

-We don't have that much rock.
-Right.

So, if you elevate the roads,

your driveways go whoop like this,
so you've got to elevate those.

You've got to elevate sidewalks.

Might want to put dirt in between,
so people don't fall off.

And then, your house
is down in a hole,

so you've got to start elevating
the houses and schools.

A couple of trillion dollars later.

And the hospitals, and everything.

I don't think we can afford it.

What about further projections?

What do you see Miami looking like
in a hundred years?

-Waterworld.
-Waterworld?

-Yeah.
-It's funny you mention that.

I actually had a small role,
you wouldn't have recognized me.

I was covered in grease.

But I still think we were on
to something there, some real...

-Yeah, I loved that sailboat he had.
-Sorry to get off topic.

What about sea walls,
the solution of seawalls? Is it...?

The problem for Miami

is that we sit on top
of a bed of porous limestone.

And you know
what's going to kill us? The shrimp.

There's these prehistoric shrimp

that dug in the sediments
and made holes underneath us.

The whole city is built

on a foundation
of Swiss cheese, basically?

A rocky version of Swiss cheese.
Want to see a piece?

-Yeah.
-I've got some in the yard.

Yeah, I've got some of it.

So, Jack, this is the reason
we can't keep the water out.

This is Miami formation limestone.

The water goes right through it.

So this is the foundation
that Miami is built on.

If you build a wall up on top
of that to keep the water out,

the water goes through the holes,
comes from underneath you.

So, Mayor Levine says,
"Don't listen to the doomsayers.

Miami's here to stay."
What do you think?

This place is gonna be underwater.

We have enough heat
in the atmosphere right now,

enough heat in the oceans,
enough carbon dioxide.

Eventually Miami will be underwater,
it's just a matter of when?

You got it.
The sea level is gonna rise.

And Miami won't be here
when it rises.

We've arrived at the blue hole

just 50 nautical miles
off the coast of Cuba.

-Approaching the drop-off.
-Roger that.

Today, we go down inside it.

Here we go, start lifting off.
And we're off.

Even though Jeff has cored
many blue holes before...

This is amazing!

...he's never been to the bottom,
because they're too deep to dive.

So this will be a first
for both of us.

It's a rocky little bastard.

We'll go ahead, release.

-Okay, you can release.
-Here we go.

Okay, bridge lines are free.
You are clear to maneuver.

SOSO Nadir. Comm's okay, no leaks.

Roger that. Nadir, and so,
you are clear to dunk when ready.

SOSO Nadir. Venting now, over.

Roger, Nadir venting now.
Have a good dive.

-Okay, here we go, guys.
-Yeah!

I'd say that's perfection.

I love hearing
that that's perfection!

The way to the hole is ahead,
right off of our stern.

Depth 6-0 meters,

altitude 1-7 meters.

They're seeing the bottom
at about 75 meters, about 210 feet,

so they are basically
descending this wall.

We are literally sinking
into this giant blue hole.

This is so beautiful.

Nadir, Nadir,
control my depth at 7 meters.

-Vents are secure.
-Coming up on the wall.

Confirm, descending
to 2-0 meters on the wall.

What is a blue hole?
What is it that we're in right now?

A blue hole is basically a cave

that forms in a carbonate platform
or limestone.

The sea level has risen about
350 feet since the last ice age.

It drowns it. So you end up
with a hole in the ocean floor.

And that hole
is just collecting sediments.

You can see it around us
falling through the water column.

All that sand...
Covers everything and blankets it.

It's similar to a tree ring,
putting on a new layer every year.

It accumulates at the bottom.

When a hurricane strikes,

it whips up really big particles,

off the banktop,
throws that in the hole,

and that's our record of the passage
of that particular hurricane.

So, by taking the sediment core,

we can do a reconstruction
of those hurricane events.

It's a perfect time capsule.

That time capsule basically starts

when the sea floods this,
probably about 8,000 years ago.

So we should have 8000 years' worth
of sediment accumulating.

We won't be able
to collect that much.

We might get a few thousand years.

Roger that.
Coming down to the bottom...

Almost. I don't think anyone's seen
what we're seeing right now.

What's really exciting
is being able to lay eyes

on something
that no human has ever seen.

It's amazing.

Control, Control, this is Nadir.

Off-bottom depth is 7-5 meters.
Ascending, over.

Thank you, Captain.
Great maneuvering, man.

That was a great scout.

Now comes the hard part.

Jeff and his team will try to drive
these aluminum tubes

deep into the ocean floor.

The farther they go down,
the more data they'll collect.

But the more ambitious they are,
the more often things can go wrong.

The tubes can bend or even break.

Okay, starting to launch now, cap.

-Launch away.
-Copy, launching.

-Keep on going...
-Everybody's happy?

All right, start her up!

Nice and easy!

We're not in the bottom,
we're lyin' on the bottom.

All right, stop it!

I lost her at the bottom.

Coming up on the cable.

Work out those muscles.

The bottom of the core
at the surface.

She's got an angle there at the end.

Hopefully, at depth,
she's already going.

All right, stay.

As so often happens,
the core has broken.

Now it's empty, right?

And then it fell off
while we were securing it, yeah.

All the team can do is try again.

Let's get another one going.

But if anything more goes wrong,
a big-time mission like this one

could all be for nothing.

I can't stop thinking
of all the neighborhoods

away from the glamour
of Miami Beach,

on the mainland,

that are going to be impacted
by the rising oceans

coming up
through the porous limestone.

Of the nearly three million people
who live in the Miami area,

more than half
are lower-income or immigrant.

What are they going to do?

I arrange a meeting
with Nicole Hernandez Hammer,

a scientist who left academia
to work as a climate activist here.

So great to meet you.

What a gorgeous summer day,
in the middle of December.

Yup, and we still have
a little bit of flooding.

Oh, yeah!

Now, what's happening here?
Is this water...?

-This is high tide.
-This is just high tide?

Yeah, and this is actually
a foot less than last month.

Crazy, 'cause I thought
this was like left over from rain.

-No, this is today. And no rain.
-Wow.

It's really tough,
because I think, sometimes,

people see the flooding and think
maybe a water main broke,

or it's just bad infrastructure.

They're not making the connection
between the climate change

and what's happening here.

Just to be clear, we're far away
from the beach right now.

-We're on the mainland.
-Miles away from the beach,

and yet, water
comes all the way here

through the floor, basically?

Through the limestone, yeah.

And it carries with it
whatever is sitting on the surface

and slightly underground,
like septic tanks.

-Yikes.
-Or auto shops,

and whatever they've got
coming out, and it collects.

It's like biohazard stuff.
It can be toxic.

It's got bacterias,
and people don't know it.

They're walking around in the water,
their kids splashing in the water.

-It's a public health concern.
-Damn.

We're talking about people that
have lived here their whole lives,

and it's probably tough for them
to wrap their head around that.

I think
there's a certain degree of denial.

I think people feel, like,

you know, the elected officials

or state agencies
are going to figure it out.

"It can't be that Miami
is gonna be underwater."

Is the governor hearing your voice?
Is there movement in the...?

He heard it, but he's pretending
he didn't hear it.

Some colleagues
had a meeting with him.

And he listened. And then
they left, and then that was it.

-And nothing changed.
-Yeah.

So, you can see
the writing on the wall.

What do you tell people
in the community?

Essentially, it's telling people
that what we have is going away

and they could lose everything.

And I'd like to introduce you
to some people that I talk to.

How's it going?

-Jason. How are you doing?
-Nice to meet you.

So, Nicole was telling me
that sometimes the septic tanks

can mix with the groundwater,

and it can be like dangerous water.
Has that ever been a problem?

We're like two blocks down,

and it's really bad,
it gets flooded bad. And it stinks.

I don't know
if that's like gases or something,

and then,
it just smells really, like, bad.

You tell the kids,
"No splashing there."

-No.
-Do you guys get worried?

Because the level of the ocean
is just gonna keep on rising,

and it's only like one foot away
from water coming into your house.

Are people concerned about Miami
and, like, the future?

Yeah, it'll devalue
the home eventually.

People are going
to come by and see it,

and there's no interest
in buying a property like that.

Is this really our future?

One where, eventually,
millions of Americans

will have to move away
from the coast?

If that happens,
where are they all going to go?

Who's going to decide where they go,

and who is going to pay for it all?

Hello. Hi, yes,
it's Jack Black calling again.

Just wanted to talk
to Governor Scott.

I decide to call Governor Rick Scott
one more time,

the one who apparently won't listen
to his mayors. Or his scientists.

It's regarding climate change.

Okay, but what if...? What if I say,
I just want to talk about, like...

weather difference?

Does that make a difference?

Again I don't get through.

All right.

He knows where to find me,
if he wants to call me.

But I'm not gonna hold my breath.
Thank you.

This is insane to me.

Miami's going under,

but so many people are acting
like nothing is wrong.

I am in awe at the number of people
involved on this mission

and the passion
that they bring to the task.

They seem tireless too.

Go real slow and steady too
for the last half of it, okay?

Working from morning to night,
all in the name of climate science.

And even though they've
come up empty so far,

the team is determined
to get enough core samples

to make the trip to this blue hole
worth the cost.

All right, Chris, up easy!

-You happy now?
-I will be when we land this.

Okay, so how do we make that happen?

We're just about to.

If this lands on deck,
we will have collected

the longest core ever collected
from a blue hole on Earth.

They're laughing.
That must be something good.

Oh, shit! Don't stop!

It came up by a fingernail.

-We don't want to lose any.
-No.

All right, everybody ready?
One, two, three.

Jeff will analyze this core
back at Woods Hole

to see when hurricanes occurred
and how powerful they were.

He'll also study how warm
the sea surface temperature was.

That's where Pete Van Hengstum
comes in.

What's up, Pete?

Pete's a micropaleontologist,
and a key part of this team.

Have a look, it's all set up.

Wow. It's like
a whole little world in there.

Look at these on the bigger screen.

Essentially, what you're looking at
are millions of tiny shells

that are being deposited
in these blue holes.

This is from
the core drilling you did?

Absolutely.
These are the microfossils

that were at the very bottom
of that core.

I'm still
not completely understanding

the climate connection.

These organisms make their shells
out of mineral calcium carbonate.

And when you form those shells,

the chemistry of the shell
is linked to the temperature

of when that animal was living.

How do you check the temperature?

We can measure the ratio
of the heavy to light oxygen atoms

inside of these shells.

And the relationship of that ratio

is controlled
by the ocean's temperature.

We still need to radiocarbon date

leaves that are preserved
inside the cores

to know how old
the different sediment layers are.

Now I'm beginning
to see the full picture.

By analyzing the fossils,

as well as the mud
they pull up from the sea bottom,

these scientists can tell
not just when a hurricane occurred,

but how warm
the water was at the time.

So, imagine
if going back through time

for 1,000 or 2,000 years,
every single year,

we knew how many hurricanes
made landfall

and what the temperature was like.

"Were there more hurricanes?
Was the ocean warmer?"

We're going to be able to learn
so much about climate,

how the environment in those holes
changed through time.

-That's just really exciting.
-So cool.

No, I mean, it's amazing.

Well, we've got the mud.

And we've got the fossils.

Now it's just a matter

of what Jeff Donnelly
is going to find out

in his lab back in Massachusetts.

Everywhere I go,
I see construction cranes

and new buildings going up.

With sea levels rising,
surely the developers in Miami

are aware of the risk.

Or are they thinking maybe people

can just swim
to the kitchen for breakfast?

I asked an architect,
Reinaldo Borges,

and an insurance expert,
Alex Kaplan, to meet.

-Insurance mogul?
-Something like that.

-Architect extraordinaire?
-Yes, sir.

Great to meet you. I'm Jack Black,
actor supreme. Let's have a seat.

Currently, how many new buildings
are being built in Miami?

Right now, we have over 300 permits

for significant
high-rise/mid-rise construction.

There's no slowing down in sight.

We have over 20 billion dollars
of new buildings going up.

Unbelievable.

None have been thought through
in terms of permanent flooding.

So no one seems
to be panicked about,

"Hey, Miami is going to be
one of the most severely hit places

with regard to climate change."

No, building increases.

The city builders
are sort of saying,

"We're experiencing construction
here that is unprecedented,

with a lot of cash coming to Miami.

Everybody's happy,
and it's fantastic."

Okay, now I get it.

Real estate developers
aren't concerned about the future.

They're cashing in today
while the getting is good.

You know, in Florida alone,

you've got 544 billion dollars'
worth of property

that lives within six feet
of the high tide line.

It's right on the front line
for sea level rise.

Alex's company, Swiss Re,
is an international insurance giant.

They insure the insurance companies.
Alex understands risk.

The problem is, overwhelmingly,

people, individuals,
corporations and governments

underestimate
what they are exposed to.

The expectation is, "The government
will solve our problems,

so why should I deal with it today?"

But flood insurance in the US
doesn't cover these things.

Sea level rise over time,
that's on the owner.

Nobody else is paying for that.

At what point
do you think people go,

"Wait, it's not worth it anymore"?

These residential buildings

get transferred from the developer
into an association.

If later the insurance company says,
"We cannot insure your building,"

because of risk assessment,

suddenly they have a building
that doesn't have insurance.

It's really scary to think
South Florida will not be insurable.

So many people own homes.
They have 30-year mortgages on them.

You know, in thinking about how
a lot of these towers are financed,

it's entirely unsustainable.

I get that no one
wants this party to end.

But when the insurance companies
decide the risk is too high,

and the banks stop giving mortgages,

this whole house of cards
is going to collapse, right?

I can't help wondering
what will happen

to everyone who lives here

when all this property
isn't worth anything.

It's been months since I've seen
Jeff Donnelly and his team.

I'm a little anxious as I arrive
at their lab at Woods Hole,

here on Cape Cod.

I'm wondering,
am I about to learn the worst

about the future
of Atlantic hurricanes?

This is one of the cores
we took on the cruise.

We split it open for you,
so you can have a look at it.

Wow.

And so, as you march down this core,
you're marching back through time.

This entire core goes back
a little over 1,000 years.

That's incredible.

The base of this section
is probably about 500 years ago.

Europeans hadn't settled
North America

when these sediments
were deposited.

So, Columbus doesn't arrive
until the upper end of this section.

If we date a whole series of those,
we can build a chronology of events.

So, question:

you have consistency in the core,

and then you have
these inconsistent patterns.

These are events, right?

Right. So, these really coarse
intervals here

are deposited during a hurricane.

-That's a hurricane?
-That's right.

You go down a number of years,
and it's pretty quiet.

But then, all of a sudden,
you get boom, boom, boom.

One, two, three events
within, say, ten years.

-That's right.
-This is incredible.

So, we got one here, at the base
of this core... I can show you.

This is one of the bigger event beds
we have in this particular core.

Here you got a coarse debris,

and there's probably 10
or 15 centimeters of it.

Something that large is probably
a Category 4 or 5 hurricane.

-This is like a Katrina.
-It could even be more intense.

Hurricane after hurricane
after hurricane.

There was a lot of activity. Why?

Well, this particular interval

is one in which sea surface
temperatures were pretty warm

along the Eastern seaboard
of the US.

And those warm
sea surface temperatures

actually caused
much more hurricane activity.

This shows that what the climate
models are saying is really right.

Hurricanes are really sensitive
to sea surface temperature,

and when you warm up
that temperature even a little,

you start getting
more intense hurricanes.

-Is that where we're headed?
-Well, that's the worry.

There's this natural variability
in the oceans and the climate system

that sometimes it was warmer,
and sometimes, colder.

But we've been warming up
the sea surface temperatures

with greenhouse gas emissions.

The planet should be cooling
right now, and it isn't.

It's warming rapidly.

We shot past the warmest period
in, basically, the last 450 years.

So by virtue of us heating
the temperatures of the water,

we're already warmer than this was,

when we have this super-violent,
very, very active storms.

That's right. Right.

Then we look more closely
at one of these storms of the past

to see what could be coming our way.

This 1821 storm
we actually know quite a bit about.

We have a really fast moving
Category 3 hurricane

going up the Eastern seaboard,
over New Jersey and New York.

That had to have been destructive.

Those sort of 1821 kind of storms
that we're seeing in the cores,

really big,
they're really intense storms.

Sandy, for example,
we barely see any deposits.

So why was there
so much damage from Sandy,

even though it was
a minimal hurricane?

And it turns out,
you know, we're the problem.

This is the New Jersey shoreline
when the 1821 hurricane hit.

We didn't build anything on it.

There are fishing shacks,
and that's about it.

-Right.
-This is that same shoreline today.

We've basically built Atlantic City,
this urban area,

on top of this barrier island.

And there's all
this permanent infrastructure,

whether it be hotels...

-Port facilities, gas terminals.
-Homes, all of this.

All that sits vulnerable
to these storms.

Imagine you're watching
this big Category 4 hurricane

spinning off of North Carolina.

Eight, twelve hours, you'll have
to make some critical decisions

about how to get people
out of harm's way

across this really
heavily populated area.

-That's literally an impossibility.
-Right.

Katrina, we had days,
and we still did a horrible job.

Indeed.

So that's what's really scary
about these storms.

We put ourselves in harm's way.

In this harm's way.

And as these waters get warmer,
storms will become more frequent.

Yeah. It's only a matter of time.

The more I learn about Miami's fate,

the less I'm able
to wrap my head around it.

Are we going to have to someday
rename it "the lost city of Miami"?

It's only a matter of time
before another major storm hits.

But it's been a decade
and they've been lucky,

so maybe that's part
of the denial here?

It's all making me feel
a little crazy.

I'm imagining
that if I lived here in Miami,

what would I do?

What do you think you'd do?

What we know is coming
is sea level rise.

Three feet, six feet, twelve feet.

What is it that keeps me

from really believing

or wrapping my head
around these facts?

Here's your premise that's wrong.

You are thinking that our brains
are only rational. And they're not.

Our brains are wired, in part,
to deny unpleasant emotions.

There is a part of our brain
which is highly rational,

analyzes data, takes in information,

and then there's
the emotional part of the brain.

The emotional part of the brain
is extremely powerful.

And it feels
more comfortable just to...

just to shut down
the scientific part of my brain

and just enjoy the right now,
just do nothing.

You are not alone.

I have dubbed the condition,
pre-traumatic stress disorder.

I am hearing what the scientists
are saying in my mind,

playing it like a tape all the time.

-I do.
-Now,

was there a specific incident

that heightened
this sense of vulnerability

and connected it with climate?

I remember my parents fighting
when I was a little boy,

and I was so scared
of their anger towards each other,

I ran into a room with my nanny.

Okay, that has nothing to do
with climate change.

-Oh, but...
-That's just what came up.

I don't know why. That sense of...

-Well, try to think.
-...of fear and danger.

-And instability.
-Yes. Right.

It's just so unfathomable,
the idea of change.

So, there's the tensions
in that space.

While you're trying to find
a peaceful resolution,

you just kind of don't do anything.

Do you think
those are coconuts up there?

What do you think they are?

It's really hard for me
to live with the fact

that more storms like Katrina
are headed our way.

I wonder how Jeff and his team
deal with it.

You guys seem to be
the holders of this knowledge,

really specific
to sort of our survival,

that not a lot of people know.

-How does that make you feel?
-I get frustrated.

That means I'm not doing
a good enough job

getting what we know out there.

It's always a challenge,

and we're good at talking
to each other about it.

But translating it into a language
that everybody understands

is much more difficult.

From early in my career, I was like,
"As soon as New Orleans gets hit,

society'll get the message."

Katrina happens,
and I thought, "Here it is."

And nothing happened.

"If New Orleans didn't work,

the next time New York's hit,
we'll get it."

Yeah, East Coast gets pummeled.

Sandy hits, first thing we do
is rebuild the Jersey Shore.

We just don't get it.
We don't take that long view.

That's what keeps you up at night,

'cause you know you've got tens
of millions of people in harm's way

and don't know
where the next one will hit.

Isn't it frustrating,
the lack of political will

that we have
in the United States of America

to address this?

Absolutely. It's the most
frustrating part of my life.

-All of it, right?
-We're impartial observers, right?

Scientists always come into it
very skeptical.

We're the most skeptical people
on the planet.

We try to understand
how the Earth's system works

and we figure things out,

and you put that message out
and it becomes politicized, right?

People think, "You're trying to get
more federal money, get prestige."

The reality is, if I could prove
global warming wasn't real,

I'd be the most famous scientist
on the planet.

I would have more funding
than anybody.

There's lots of incentive for me
to disprove climate change.

I can't do it though.

We're actually measuring it,
we see it happening.

There's this war going on
that has nothing to do with reality.

And after living through hurricanes
and seeing Katrina,

and you guys living
on the Eastern seaboard

in the most densely populated area,

aren't you as worried as I am?

I guess I don't believe
in sitting around being afraid.

Rather... trying to make measures
towards, like, changing it.

No, I understand, for sure.

And I don't feel doom and gloom,
actually, at all.

I feel empowered
'cause I have that sense of wonder,

that sense of excitement.

We're innovative people.

Why can't we make good decisions
about where we put infrastructure?

Cheers, guys. Thank you
for all of your energy, your time,

the incredible amount of information
I've learned today.

And Jeff, thank you
for scaring the shit out of me.

My pleasure.

It's time for me to leave Miami,

but before I go,

scientist Keren Bolter thought
I should meet one other person,

someone who might hold
a key to the future:

17-year-old Delaney Reynolds.

Delaney, nice to meet you. I'm Jack.

Is it true? I've heard
you are an incredible new force

in the fight against climate change?

Definitely, yes.
I go around and I educate

as many people as possible,

but my main focus is kids,

'cause it's our generation
that is gonna inherit this problem.

Like, all the kids that I talk to,
they're like,

"Yes, this is a problem,
and we need to fix it."

And they get so engaged.
And they're like,

"I want to help. How can I help?
What can we do?"

-That's so encouraging.
-Really cool.

So, it seems like that's the trend
with the youth movement,

-people accepting what's happening.
-Kids get it.

Unlike so many adults
in leadership positions.

Our governor has denied
that climate change is real,

and our senator denies
climate change is related to humans,

that we have not caused this.

And these are educated people.

I like to say
that I live in a "State of Denial."

But not me, personally.
The entire state of Florida.

Wow.

It's a world problem, right?
It's not just a Miami problem.

Miami is number one
in terms of vulnerability,

so what we see here is going to get
the whole world to wake up.

For the survival of the species
of human beings.

-Right?
-Or will we become Waterworld?

Exactly, where it's just me
and Kevin Costner...

On a little boat.

He was kind of like an Aquaman,
he didn't need a boat.

Anyway, it's an amazing movie,
if you get a chance.

Thank you so much for this.
This is the highlight of my journey.

-Yes!
-Finally, I've found some hope!

But it's been amazing
talking to you.

Do you have any events coming up?

Yes, actually, part of a program
called Breakthrough Miami.

I'm going to give a talk
to about a hundred kids.

I'm Delaney, and I'm going
to talk to you about my passion,

which is global warming
and sea level rise.

The good news is
there are things we can do.

Instead of using fossil fuels,

we have technology,
like wind power and hydro power,

and electric cars, and solar power.

We just need to use it.

So, maybe Delaney and her generation
will help us get out of this mess.

If we work together, we can do this.

I hope so.
But they can't do it alone.

What do we want? Climate Justice!
When do we want it? Now!

They need people like Keren
and Nicole Hernandez Hammer.

And the rest of us.

We are unstoppable!
Another world is possible!

Subtitles: Viviana Varandela
plint.com