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MAN Oh my god,
oh my god.
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00:00:03,536 --> 00:00:06,806
The world's
weather is going wild.
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00:00:06,873 --> 00:00:10,844
MAN Oh man.
Oh my god.
4
00:00:11,177 --> 00:00:13,079
From
record floods in India
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00:00:13,146 --> 00:00:15,048
to devastating
drought in America.
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00:00:16,049 --> 00:00:19,152
It was just
a large boiling cloud of… dust.
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00:00:19,652 --> 00:00:21,488
From
deep freezes in Europe
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00:00:21,554 --> 00:00:23,256
to scorching heat in Australia.
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00:00:24,257 --> 00:00:26,059
MAN Yeah. He's
not looking too well really.
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00:00:26,126 --> 00:00:28,762
The largest
Atlantic hurricane on record…
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00:00:29,696 --> 00:00:32,098
and the widest
tornado ever known.
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00:00:33,033 --> 00:00:34,567
GEORGE It
got so big, so wide.
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00:00:34,634 --> 00:00:37,037
Even if you tried to flee, you
wouldn't have been able to.
14
00:00:40,206 --> 00:00:42,208
Scientists
are getting worried.
15
00:00:43,576 --> 00:00:46,079
It's the first time ever
we ran out of letters in the alphabet
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00:00:46,146 --> 00:00:48,114
to name our storms.
Unprecedented.
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00:00:50,817 --> 00:00:51,718
BRIAN People
were freezing.
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It was very unusual.
19
00:00:55,055 --> 00:00:56,723
But extreme weather
has happened in the past.
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00:00:58,158 --> 00:01:00,593
It was a dreadful
terrible climate disaster.
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With camera phones,
the internet and 24 hour news,
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are we simply seeing more
wild weather more often?
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Or is the weather getting worse?
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And if it is, what
could be the cause?
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00:01:24,584 --> 00:01:25,618
In the
last ten years,
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America has experienced
its two most active
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tornado seasons on record.
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MAN Yep, there
goes the roof off the house.
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Is tornado alley becoming
an even more dangerous place to live?
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MAN Oh my gosh,
look at that!
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Destruction. Holy crap.
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May 2013, two monster
twisters terrorize Oklahoma.
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The nightmare
begins on May 20th.
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A small tornado touches
down in a field.
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MAN This
is freaking beautiful.
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It grows rapidly
and moves towards Moore.
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A city of over 50,000.
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Storm chaser George Kourounis
watches the tornado develop
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on his radar screen.
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And it looks horribly familiar.
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00:02:33,620 --> 00:02:35,288
GEORGE We couldn't
believe what was going on,
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we saw this hook echo on
the radar, debris ball,
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we knew that something very
bad was happening in Moore.
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And we're thinking
oh, no not again.
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How can this town possibly
get hit one more time?
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Oh my god.
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00:02:51,371 --> 00:02:54,908
In just 15 years,
Moore's been hit four times.
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00:02:56,176 --> 00:02:58,611
MAN Yeah, here comes the
debris, we'll get out of here. Hold on.
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00:02:59,646 --> 00:03:02,582
I can't get my window up. Phil I
can't get my window up!
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00:03:04,851 --> 00:03:06,386
For those
on the front line,
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00:03:06,453 --> 00:03:08,822
it feels like tornadoes
are getting worse.
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WOMAN There's so
much debris in the air.
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Fifteen minutes
after it touches down,
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this monster tornado is already
one and a half kilometers wide
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with wind speeds up to
320 kilometers per hour.
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It reaches the edge of town
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and plows through
several neighborhoods.
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MAN Alright…
tearing up the buildings.
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It's coming but right at us.
Oh my gosh that's violent.
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00:03:42,222 --> 00:03:43,790
Then, it makes a turn
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00:03:44,424 --> 00:03:47,093
and heads straight for
Briarwood Elementary School.
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Jamie Maples is a teacher there.
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You could
just hear it coming,
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like a jet plane was
right over your head.
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It was just super, super loud.
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The
tornado intensifies,
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until it's one of the most
powerful twisters in America's history.
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The teachers and
children take shelter.
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WOMAN Calm
down. We're in a brick building, it's ok.
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JAMIE Finally
the electricity went out
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and they realized that
this was serious, um,
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so they started to get scared.
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There was a lot of
crying and screaming.
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The next thing you
knew the roof was gone.
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And then that's when
everything started to fall.
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The walls started to fall
and the teachers got trapped
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under some beams that fell.
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WOMAN
Keep your heads down.
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And
then it finished,
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and then when it was
over it started raining.
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00:05:01,634 --> 00:05:02,869
WOMAN Wow.
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Oh my god. Oh my god.
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00:05:09,476 --> 00:05:12,379
Oh my god, oh my god.
84
00:05:20,186 --> 00:05:21,454
Oh my god.
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00:05:21,988 --> 00:05:24,424
Amazingly,
everyone survives.
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00:05:27,794 --> 00:05:29,596
There were parents
coming trying to find kids
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and kids screaming
and kids crying.
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They all just needed to be
hugged and told, you know,
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we made it.
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It was a miracle that we were
able to give all the kids back
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to their parents that day.
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00:05:57,791 --> 00:05:59,759
But the
tornado's not finished yet.
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It strikes another elementary
school one and a half kilometers away,
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killing seven children.
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In 40 minutes of carnage,
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the tornado takes
a total of 24 lives.
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And destroys a town.
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MAN It's on the ground, on
the ground! there look it's on the ground,
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There, there it is, there it is,
there it is.
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Dangerous tornado. Holy crap.
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But the 2013
tornado season
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has more horrors in store.
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Just over a week later, an even
larger twister hits nearby
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El Reno, Oklahoma.
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00:06:45,972 --> 00:06:47,207
MAN Oh,
it's a tornado.
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00:06:47,273 --> 00:06:49,042
It's a tornado, power flashes.
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00:06:50,977 --> 00:06:53,680
Again, storm chaser
George Kourounis is close by.
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GEORGE
The tornado was so big
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it filled the entire windshield.
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It wasn't pretty in any way.
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It was a dark mean smear,
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00:07:04,724 --> 00:07:06,826
a smudge across the horizon
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that just looked like
it meant business.
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That was a powerful tornado.
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The wind speed reaches
a terrifying 475 kilometers per hour.
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Among the fastest ever recorded.
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MAN
Strong tornado.
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And even more
surprising is its size.
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The tornado is rapidly
getting bigger.
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00:07:35,755 --> 00:07:38,258
MAN Uh,
to our east, 200 yards to our east.
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The twister
quickly grows from one and a half
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to over four kilometers across.
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Large enough to stretch from one
end of New York's Central Park
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00:07:50,103 --> 00:07:51,371
to the other.
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00:07:52,772 --> 00:07:57,243
MAN Holy shit.
Go man, go. Hit the gas.
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It plows
across interstate 40.
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Eight people are
killed in their cars,
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including three
experienced storm chasers.
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00:08:09,956 --> 00:08:12,025
GEORGE It was the
first time that any storm chaser
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has ever been killed by the
storm they've been chasing.
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00:08:15,528 --> 00:08:18,965
It got so big, it
got so wide so fast.
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Even if you tried to flee, you
wouldn't have been able to.
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This is the widest
tornado on record anywhere
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00:08:27,207 --> 00:08:28,508
in the world.
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00:08:32,445 --> 00:08:36,082
And other remarkable tornadoes
are appearing around the globe.
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In Portugal, a raging vortex
tears apart a stadium.
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And in Bangladesh, a violent
twister takes 23 lives as it
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rips through hundreds of houses.
139
00:09:02,909 --> 00:09:04,944
Is this just a coincidence?
140
00:09:05,645 --> 00:09:08,348
Or are tornadoes taking
a turn for the worse?
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00:09:09,616 --> 00:09:11,084
MAN Look
how big that thing is!
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00:09:11,685 --> 00:09:14,688
To find out,
meteorologists like Josh Whurman
143
00:09:14,754 --> 00:09:17,624
investigate how powerful
they were in the past.
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00:09:21,928 --> 00:09:23,630
The tornado which
killed the most people
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was way back in 1925,
called the tri-state tornado.
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00:09:28,168 --> 00:09:30,904
America's deadliest
tornado leaves the longest trail
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00:09:30,970 --> 00:09:34,941
of destruction ever known -
carving a path through three states.
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And kills nearly 700.
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The deadliest tornado in history
strikes Bangladesh in 1989.
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Killing around 1300.
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But death tolls aren't
an accurate measure of a tornado's power.
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Comparing violent
tornadoes from different decades
153
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is very, very difficult.
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00:10:06,706 --> 00:10:09,242
The average number of
deaths has been going down.
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00:10:09,309 --> 00:10:11,945
We think that's because people
are more aware of tornadoes,
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because we have better
warnings and better education.
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So it's very hard to compare
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tornadoes from past
decades to new ones.
159
00:10:22,622 --> 00:10:24,524
Death
tolls are falling.
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But the number of reported
tornadoes is rising.
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Records indicate there have been
more than three times as many
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tornadoes over the last decade
than in the fifties.
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But even this is not as
clear cut as it seems.
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00:10:45,512 --> 00:10:48,448
In the past, fewer people
were looking for tornadoes.
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When
I started 15 years ago,
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there were very few storm
chasers, not very many at all,
167
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and everybody knew
everybody else.
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00:10:56,756 --> 00:10:59,125
Oh there it is,
it's right there,
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quick that large
tornado right there.
170
00:11:00,593 --> 00:11:02,629
But now, anyone
with a cheap camera
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can be a storm chaser.
172
00:11:05,465 --> 00:11:07,133
…I got amazing video.
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GEORGE Now, there
are more people out there.
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And there are times when you're
in the middle of nowhere,
175
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on some rural country road
and there's traffic jams
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with storm chasers.
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This is a bad situation here.
178
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We've got large tornado coming
behind us and everybody's stuck
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on this road right now.
180
00:11:28,288 --> 00:11:30,724
And the more we
look, the more we find.
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MAN There it is.
Oh we're in perfect position. Hahaha…
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Most tornadoes
simply touch down in a field.
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In the past, this tornado
might have passed by unseen.
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These days, it becomes
another statistic.
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GEORGE So of
course there's going to be more
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of these tornadoes reported.
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00:11:59,719 --> 00:12:02,222
Are there actually
more of them happening?
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00:12:02,288 --> 00:12:04,190
We're not so sure yet.
189
00:12:05,859 --> 00:12:08,728
Bu what experts do
know is that the atmospheric
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00:12:08,795 --> 00:12:11,431
conditions that cause
tornadoes are changing.
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00:12:15,335 --> 00:12:18,672
They know, because of millions
of precise measurements
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00:12:18,738 --> 00:12:22,575
painstakingly collected
over the last hundred years.
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00:12:27,914 --> 00:12:31,451
Twice a day, every day,
weather balloons all over the world
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00:12:31,518 --> 00:12:33,386
take the atmosphere's
temperature.
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00:12:37,090 --> 00:12:39,959
They're part of a vast network
monitoring the weather.
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Peter Stott is head
of climate monitoring
197
00:12:45,265 --> 00:12:47,067
at the Met Office in England.
198
00:12:48,468 --> 00:12:49,469
We have
measurements of temperatures
199
00:12:49,536 --> 00:12:52,439
from many, many thousands of
weather stations over the land.
200
00:12:52,505 --> 00:12:55,675
And we also have measurements
uh, of sea surface temperatures.
201
00:12:55,742 --> 00:12:58,912
And we're also increasingly
using satellite data as well.
202
00:12:59,446 --> 00:13:01,848
And what the
data reveals is shocking.
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00:13:03,383 --> 00:13:05,752
Over the last century,
the world has heated up
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00:13:05,819 --> 00:13:08,755
by just under one degree
Celsius on average.
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00:13:10,123 --> 00:13:12,158
This is global warming.
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00:13:15,929 --> 00:13:17,230
PETER So we
have very clear evidence
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that the world has warmed.
208
00:13:18,431 --> 00:13:22,268
And with that has come many
other changes in weather as well.
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00:13:23,670 --> 00:13:26,239
The extra heat is
transforming the atmosphere.
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In the skies above us,
the weather is changing.
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00:13:31,711 --> 00:13:33,246
But is it getting worse?
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00:13:34,447 --> 00:13:38,084
Climatologist Scott Denning is
one of thousands of scientists
213
00:13:38,151 --> 00:13:41,221
trying to figure out exactly
how higher temperatures
214
00:13:41,287 --> 00:13:42,722
affect the weather.
215
00:13:44,457 --> 00:13:46,893
The climate system
is driven by heat coming in
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00:13:46,960 --> 00:13:49,529
from the sun, and by heat
streaming back out into space.
217
00:13:49,596 --> 00:13:51,798
And the more heat you
put into the system,
218
00:13:51,865 --> 00:13:55,168
the, the faster it runs,
the harder it runs.
219
00:13:55,235 --> 00:13:56,836
It changes all kinds of things.
220
00:13:56,903 --> 00:13:58,371
It changes temperature,
it changes rainfall,
221
00:13:58,438 --> 00:13:59,873
it changes clouds.
222
00:13:59,939 --> 00:14:02,308
The system is a
system, it's linked.
223
00:14:03,109 --> 00:14:04,911
But when it
comes to tornadoes,
224
00:14:04,978 --> 00:14:06,813
it's… complicated.
225
00:14:07,547 --> 00:14:08,882
MAN Check it out.
226
00:14:08,948 --> 00:14:10,250
JOSH In order
to get a strong tornado
227
00:14:10,316 --> 00:14:13,153
from a supercell thunderstorm
we need two ingredients.
228
00:14:13,219 --> 00:14:17,791
One is energy, warm moist air
to get the thunderstorm going
229
00:14:17,857 --> 00:14:19,125
in the first place.
230
00:14:19,192 --> 00:14:22,696
But that's not enough,
we also need rotation,
231
00:14:22,762 --> 00:14:24,898
which is differences in wind
speeds at different levels
232
00:14:24,964 --> 00:14:28,568
in the atmosphere, to make
that thunderstorm spin.
233
00:14:28,635 --> 00:14:31,604
We need both of those in order
to have a rotating supercell
234
00:14:31,671 --> 00:14:33,873
thunderstorm that can
make a violent tornado.
235
00:14:35,008 --> 00:14:37,444
As the world warms,
these two factors change
236
00:14:37,510 --> 00:14:39,512
in different ways.
237
00:14:39,579 --> 00:14:42,816
More heat could mean
bigger thunderstorms.
238
00:14:43,883 --> 00:14:48,521
But at the same time,
high altitude winds could be changing,
239
00:14:49,222 --> 00:14:52,025
which may cause less
rotation in the atmosphere.
240
00:14:53,226 --> 00:14:56,663
We don't know whether
we're getting more tornadoes,
241
00:14:56,730 --> 00:14:59,032
stronger tornadoes
or whether there are
242
00:14:59,099 --> 00:15:02,035
any changes in where the
tornadoes are occurring.
243
00:15:02,102 --> 00:15:04,137
With global warming, we might
have more thunderstorms
244
00:15:04,204 --> 00:15:06,206
in tornado alley,
but they might rotate
245
00:15:06,272 --> 00:15:08,074
and make tornadoes
less frequently.
246
00:15:08,141 --> 00:15:11,144
We're just gonna have to wait
until we get several years
247
00:15:11,211 --> 00:15:14,514
of data to even out the spikes
that we see year to year.
248
00:15:15,915 --> 00:15:18,818
Tornadoes may
get smaller and rarer.
249
00:15:20,787 --> 00:15:24,324
Or climate change could create
the conditions
250
00:15:24,391 --> 00:15:26,760
for a new breed
of super twister,
251
00:15:27,594 --> 00:15:29,863
making the monster
that struck Moore
252
00:15:29,929 --> 00:15:32,232
a sign of things to come.
253
00:15:35,168 --> 00:15:37,504
While the jury
is still out on tornadoes,
254
00:15:38,872 --> 00:15:41,374
if thunderstorms
intensify as predicted,
255
00:15:41,441 --> 00:15:44,310
other extreme weather phenomena
could get worse:
256
00:15:46,446 --> 00:15:47,881
Including hail.
257
00:15:50,350 --> 00:15:51,851
MAN Oh man.
258
00:15:54,354 --> 00:15:55,989
And it's
not just car windshields
259
00:15:56,056 --> 00:15:57,624
that can take a battering.
260
00:15:57,691 --> 00:16:00,260
Hail can ravage
vast areas of crops.
261
00:16:02,062 --> 00:16:04,998
Every year, it inflicts over a
billion dollars' worth of damage
262
00:16:05,065 --> 00:16:06,733
in America alone.
263
00:16:07,567 --> 00:16:10,804
MAN …very large
hail… Holly…
264
00:16:11,538 --> 00:16:13,039
It can even be deadly.
265
00:16:13,673 --> 00:16:15,909
MAN Oh my god,
oh my god dude.
266
00:16:15,975 --> 00:16:17,844
My truck is getting
hammered.
267
00:16:19,512 --> 00:16:20,947
This is ridiculous.
268
00:16:21,014 --> 00:16:23,917
In 2010, the world's
largest recorded hailstone
269
00:16:23,983 --> 00:16:26,386
falls in South Dakota, America.
270
00:16:26,453 --> 00:16:30,256
With a circumference
of over 46 centimeters,
271
00:16:30,323 --> 00:16:32,992
it's as big as a
large grapefruit.
272
00:16:34,928 --> 00:16:38,264
The last decade has seen a
torrent of fatal hailstorms.
273
00:16:41,835 --> 00:16:44,270
Southern China, March 2013.
274
00:16:50,610 --> 00:16:53,713
Severe thunderstorms
spawn giant lumps of ice.
275
00:16:56,416 --> 00:16:58,952
Catching residents unaware.
276
00:17:01,721 --> 00:17:03,823
They destroy homes and vehicles.
277
00:17:05,091 --> 00:17:07,360
And kill more than
twenty people.
278
00:17:11,498 --> 00:17:15,635
The next month, a freak hailstorm
kills three people in Afghanistan.
279
00:17:19,973 --> 00:17:23,176
Could these killer hailstones
be a new phenomenon?
280
00:17:27,313 --> 00:17:29,716
Deep in the Himalayas is a clue.
281
00:17:33,653 --> 00:17:37,791
Around the shores of a crater
lake hides a nightmarish scene.
282
00:17:40,126 --> 00:17:45,331
Hundreds of skeletons. Men,
women and children.
283
00:17:47,200 --> 00:17:50,203
Who, or what, killed
them, is a mystery.
284
00:17:52,272 --> 00:17:55,775
A National Geographic expedition
sets out to investigate.
285
00:17:56,943 --> 00:17:58,244
As soon as we
got up close we could see
286
00:17:58,311 --> 00:18:01,648
that the whole landscape there
was littered with bones and skulls
287
00:18:01,715 --> 00:18:03,049
and pieces of flesh.
288
00:18:03,116 --> 00:18:06,486
You could hardly take two steps
without stepping on a piece of flesh
289
00:18:06,553 --> 00:18:08,188
or a bone or a
skull or something.
290
00:18:10,223 --> 00:18:12,392
For most of the
last 50 years or so,
291
00:18:12,459 --> 00:18:14,728
I think most scientists have
assumed that they died
292
00:18:14,794 --> 00:18:17,297
in some kind of a landslide
or avalanche.
293
00:18:19,032 --> 00:18:22,402
Bone samples reveal
these people lived, and died,
294
00:18:22,469 --> 00:18:24,437
over a thousand years ago.
295
00:18:25,772 --> 00:18:28,041
The group was traversing
the mountains,
296
00:18:28,108 --> 00:18:29,542
when the unexplained
disaster struck.
297
00:18:30,777 --> 00:18:33,880
It's very clear that
they didn't die of any disease.
298
00:18:33,947 --> 00:18:35,615
they were not murdered,
299
00:18:35,682 --> 00:18:38,318
they didn't kill themselves
or die in a landslide.
300
00:18:40,186 --> 00:18:42,022
Then, on
closer inspection,
301
00:18:42,088 --> 00:18:45,492
many of the skulls reveal an
even more horrifying demise.
302
00:18:47,093 --> 00:18:50,663
Death from powerful blows to
the head by a blunt object.
303
00:18:52,565 --> 00:18:55,301
What the bones reveal is
the fractures
304
00:18:55,368 --> 00:18:57,871
of the skull that could have
killed them.
305
00:18:57,937 --> 00:19:01,274
That incident must have
occurred at the time of death.
306
00:19:02,809 --> 00:19:04,377
It's a
complete mystery.
307
00:19:07,947 --> 00:19:10,283
Until investigators hear
a local folk song…
308
00:19:11,685 --> 00:19:13,953
a legend about ice
falling from the sky.
309
00:19:18,124 --> 00:19:21,561
The song helps the experts
reach a shocking conclusion:
310
00:19:22,429 --> 00:19:23,897
With nowhere to hide,
311
00:19:23,963 --> 00:19:28,168
the travelers were brutally
struck down by giant hail.
312
00:19:30,103 --> 00:19:33,073
Hailstones big enough to kill
seem to have been around
313
00:19:33,139 --> 00:19:34,341
for centuries…
314
00:19:34,908 --> 00:19:36,910
But could they get even bigger?
315
00:19:39,846 --> 00:19:42,349
To find out, meteorologist
Kelly Mahoney
316
00:19:42,415 --> 00:19:44,484
has come to an indoor
sky diving center.
317
00:19:48,154 --> 00:19:50,924
Its vertical wind tunnel can
simulate the conditions
318
00:19:50,990 --> 00:19:54,160
at the heart of a storm,
where hail is made.
319
00:19:57,263 --> 00:19:59,532
We're standing here
inside an indoor sky diving wind tunnel,
320
00:19:59,599 --> 00:20:03,136
trying to feel what it would
be like inside a thunderstorm.
321
00:20:04,738 --> 00:20:06,306
Just
like this chamber,
322
00:20:06,373 --> 00:20:09,943
thunderstorms contain powerful
vertical winds that blow upwards
323
00:20:10,010 --> 00:20:11,444
called updrafts.
324
00:20:14,748 --> 00:20:18,718
A 100 kilometer per hour updraft
can support tennis balls.
325
00:20:20,787 --> 00:20:23,023
So hailstones
form when a piece of ice
326
00:20:23,089 --> 00:20:24,624
starts to collect water.
327
00:20:24,958 --> 00:20:27,260
It gets tossed around
enough like these balls are.
328
00:20:27,327 --> 00:20:30,063
Starts to collect supercooled
water and it grows and it grows
329
00:20:30,130 --> 00:20:32,032
until it becomes damaging.
330
00:20:32,098 --> 00:20:34,534
Like these tennis balls
would certainly be
331
00:20:34,601 --> 00:20:36,236
if they were to fall
to the ground.
332
00:20:37,337 --> 00:20:39,572
As soon as
hailstones grow any heavier,
333
00:20:39,639 --> 00:20:41,007
they fall from the sky.
334
00:20:42,509 --> 00:20:45,478
So in a storm like this, you
won't find any hail heavier
335
00:20:45,545 --> 00:20:47,047
than a tennis ball.
336
00:20:49,315 --> 00:20:50,884
Once you start
to grow bigger and bigger
337
00:20:50,950 --> 00:20:53,353
hailstones you need stronger
and stronger updrafts.
338
00:20:53,653 --> 00:20:56,289
This grapefruit sized hailstone
doesn't stand a chance
339
00:20:56,356 --> 00:20:57,957
in just 60 miles per hour.
340
00:20:59,859 --> 00:21:01,895
For grapefruits,
you need wind speeds
341
00:21:01,961 --> 00:21:04,230
of almost 200 kilometers
per hour.
342
00:21:06,232 --> 00:21:09,302
Storms with updrafts this
powerful are very rare,
343
00:21:10,103 --> 00:21:11,304
but that could change.
344
00:21:13,073 --> 00:21:14,974
So as the global
temperature and moisture increases,
345
00:21:15,041 --> 00:21:17,143
we like to think
we'll have a lot more energy
346
00:21:17,210 --> 00:21:18,545
to fuel thunderstorms.
347
00:21:18,611 --> 00:21:21,548
So if all other things are
equal, and you pump up updrafts,
348
00:21:21,614 --> 00:21:24,184
like what's holding up
these grapefruits behind us,
349
00:21:24,250 --> 00:21:26,252
you can grow more damaging
hailstones potentially
350
00:21:26,319 --> 00:21:28,355
and face a lot more damage.
351
00:21:34,361 --> 00:21:35,695
But storms have
an even deadlier weapon
352
00:21:35,762 --> 00:21:37,364
in their arsenal.
353
00:21:40,033 --> 00:21:41,201
Lightning.
354
00:21:46,106 --> 00:21:47,440
JOSH If
the climate changes,
355
00:21:47,507 --> 00:21:51,311
we would expect that there would
be changes in how much lightning we get.
356
00:21:51,378 --> 00:21:53,113
If we get more
deep thunderstorms,
357
00:21:53,179 --> 00:21:55,915
then we expect more
lightning strikes.
358
00:21:58,018 --> 00:22:02,455
Yet paradoxically in some places
the number of lightning deaths is falling.
359
00:22:05,458 --> 00:22:08,695
In Japan, Europe, North
America and Australia,
360
00:22:08,762 --> 00:22:13,099
lightning killed ten times more
people in the 1800s, than today.
361
00:22:15,568 --> 00:22:17,437
It might seem that lightning
is striking less often,
362
00:22:19,172 --> 00:22:21,908
but there may be another
reason for this decline.
363
00:22:26,112 --> 00:22:28,314
People are living
more urban lifestyles
364
00:22:28,381 --> 00:22:30,617
and people are getting warnings
of thunderstorms,
365
00:22:30,684 --> 00:22:33,353
or people have access
to shelter more easily.
366
00:22:33,420 --> 00:22:35,755
So the chance that I'm gonna be
out here when a big lightning
367
00:22:35,822 --> 00:22:37,924
strike happens, is pretty low.
368
00:22:39,759 --> 00:22:41,928
As a result, there
are fewer deaths from lightning
369
00:22:41,995 --> 00:22:43,797
today in the developed world.
370
00:22:45,598 --> 00:22:48,301
But that doesn't mean lightning
is striking less often.
371
00:22:49,969 --> 00:22:52,138
In other more remote
parts of the world,
372
00:22:52,205 --> 00:22:53,907
lightning is still
a major killer.
373
00:22:55,542 --> 00:22:58,878
Taking 24,000 lives across
the world every year.
374
00:22:59,879 --> 00:23:02,882
The most dangerous place
to be is in Central Africa.
375
00:23:04,384 --> 00:23:06,152
With thunderstorms
all year round,
376
00:23:06,219 --> 00:23:08,488
this is the lightning
capital of the world.
377
00:23:12,025 --> 00:23:15,495
In 2011, a colossal
storm forms over Uganda.
378
00:23:17,897 --> 00:23:19,065
People run to take shelter.
379
00:23:21,001 --> 00:23:23,603
But for one school
class, that isn't enough.
380
00:23:24,471 --> 00:23:27,741
A single powerful bolt
strikes their classroom
381
00:23:30,010 --> 00:23:32,312
and kills 19 children.
382
00:23:33,613 --> 00:23:36,916
It's a terrible demonstration
of lightning's power.
383
00:23:38,818 --> 00:23:41,888
And if rising global
temperatures trigger more lightning,
384
00:23:41,955 --> 00:23:45,191
there could be even more
tragedies like this.
385
00:23:46,993 --> 00:23:50,096
The best way to find out
if lightning is increasing,
386
00:23:50,163 --> 00:23:51,965
is to count the bolts.
387
00:23:53,600 --> 00:23:55,969
MAN Oh! Fuck yea!
388
00:23:56,036 --> 00:23:59,506
Every second there
are around 100 lightning strikes
389
00:23:59,572 --> 00:24:01,474
somewhere in the world.
390
00:24:06,112 --> 00:24:09,916
Some are powerful enough to
light a hundred million light bulbs.
391
00:24:14,154 --> 00:24:16,456
So they can be easily
detected by satellites.
392
00:24:18,024 --> 00:24:20,460
JOSH It's hard to
get measurements everywhere
393
00:24:20,527 --> 00:24:22,796
over the tropical jungles,
unless we just fly over them
394
00:24:22,862 --> 00:24:24,864
from way up in space.
395
00:24:25,198 --> 00:24:28,401
And we can see the lightning, we
can see the light it gives off,
396
00:24:28,468 --> 00:24:31,504
we can see radio signals it
gives off and basically count up
397
00:24:31,571 --> 00:24:33,807
the thousands of lightning
strikes that happen
398
00:24:33,873 --> 00:24:35,342
across the globe every day.
399
00:24:36,076 --> 00:24:38,278
Satellites record
the number of lightning strikes
400
00:24:38,345 --> 00:24:40,780
during cold years
and warm years.
401
00:24:42,415 --> 00:24:45,652
And they found that hot
years have more lightning.
402
00:24:48,054 --> 00:24:50,457
Even small changes
in temperature can cause more
403
00:24:50,523 --> 00:24:53,727
and deeper thunderstorms which
make very much more lightning.
404
00:25:00,433 --> 00:25:03,636
So if the planet
continues to warm up as expected
405
00:25:03,703 --> 00:25:06,406
scientists think that by
the end of the century,
406
00:25:06,473 --> 00:25:10,744
we could see hundreds of
millions more lightning strikes per year.
407
00:25:13,046 --> 00:25:16,416
And with many of these in
tropical lightning hotspots,
408
00:25:16,483 --> 00:25:18,084
they're likely to
be more deadly.
409
00:25:19,285 --> 00:25:20,954
We have concern
that in more remote areas
410
00:25:21,021 --> 00:25:23,656
of the world, particularly
farming areas of the world,
411
00:25:23,723 --> 00:25:26,926
where that shelter isn't available
or that warnings aren't available,
412
00:25:26,993 --> 00:25:29,162
that increased lightning
could result in
413
00:25:29,229 --> 00:25:31,131
more direct lightning deaths.
414
00:25:35,969 --> 00:25:37,971
With global
temperatures rising,
415
00:25:38,038 --> 00:25:41,307
experts predict
thunderstorms will intensify,
416
00:25:42,008 --> 00:25:43,677
unleashing more hail
and lightning
417
00:25:43,743 --> 00:25:45,712
in many parts of the world.
418
00:25:46,946 --> 00:25:48,415
Such as America's North East.
419
00:25:50,550 --> 00:25:54,921
By the late 21st century, it
could face more intense storms
420
00:25:54,988 --> 00:25:56,856
than ever witnessed before.
421
00:26:00,694 --> 00:26:04,864
With extreme hail,
lightning and winds,
422
00:26:04,931 --> 00:26:09,869
life for over 50 million people
could be changed forever.
423
00:26:17,444 --> 00:26:21,081
A small shift in temperature can
have a massive effect on storms
424
00:26:21,147 --> 00:26:23,016
and the extreme
weather they produce.
425
00:26:26,619 --> 00:26:29,956
But this extra heat has
a more direct impact on our lives.
426
00:26:32,759 --> 00:26:35,528
Over the last decade,
high temperature records
427
00:26:35,595 --> 00:26:39,032
have been shattered around
the world, from Las Vegas…
428
00:26:39,432 --> 00:26:42,302
MAN I've got here an egg
and a saucepan which has been heating
429
00:26:42,369 --> 00:26:44,204
up the whole day in the sun.
430
00:26:45,271 --> 00:26:46,506
We'll see what happens.
431
00:26:47,040 --> 00:26:49,576
Literally just ten
minutes later, and it's,
432
00:26:49,642 --> 00:26:51,511
it's actually perfectly cooked.
433
00:26:52,312 --> 00:26:53,980
To Siberia.
434
00:26:56,883 --> 00:27:00,120
Inspiring some creative
solutions to keeping cool.
435
00:27:04,357 --> 00:27:08,995
In 2013, Australia endures a
heat wave of epic proportions,
436
00:27:09,496 --> 00:27:11,097
lasting over two weeks.
437
00:27:11,164 --> 00:27:13,633
So even though we
call it ice cream for dogs,
438
00:27:13,700 --> 00:27:14,801
it's actually yogurt.
439
00:27:14,868 --> 00:27:16,603
Yummy.
440
00:27:18,271 --> 00:27:20,607
The Bureau of
Meteorology has to redraw
441
00:27:20,674 --> 00:27:22,175
their weather charts
to illustrate
442
00:27:22,242 --> 00:27:24,010
the unprecedented temperatures.
443
00:27:26,413 --> 00:27:29,115
Nick Klingaman is an expert
on Australia's climate.
444
00:27:30,884 --> 00:27:32,852
NICK They had to
add a new color onto the maps
445
00:27:32,919 --> 00:27:36,089
that they produce for the maximum
temperatures in Australia every day.
446
00:27:36,156 --> 00:27:38,358
I think the highest
it went was 52 Celsius
447
00:27:38,425 --> 00:27:40,627
and uh, it was projected
to be above that.
448
00:27:40,694 --> 00:27:43,496
So it was extraordinary levels
of heat that we saw in Australia
449
00:27:43,563 --> 00:27:44,764
this, this summer.
450
00:27:45,098 --> 00:27:48,601
2012 is America's
hottest year ever known.
451
00:27:52,305 --> 00:27:55,642
2010 brings Russia's
hottest summer on record.
452
00:28:01,014 --> 00:28:05,685
And in 2003, a mega heat wave
smashes records across Europe.
453
00:28:07,053 --> 00:28:09,189
Killing tens of thousands.
454
00:28:16,029 --> 00:28:18,531
There has been record
breaking weather in the past.
455
00:28:20,834 --> 00:28:24,070
In 1976 much of Europe swelters
through its hottest summer
456
00:28:24,137 --> 00:28:26,072
since records had begun.
457
00:28:28,808 --> 00:28:32,946
And back in 1933, America's
warmest June ever known.
458
00:28:36,649 --> 00:28:39,319
But in the past, there were just
as many new records set
459
00:28:39,386 --> 00:28:42,222
for the coldest days, as there
were for the hottest ones.
460
00:28:44,657 --> 00:28:46,793
So over time,
temperatures balanced out.
461
00:28:49,129 --> 00:28:51,965
Now there are far more
hot records set than cold.
462
00:28:54,234 --> 00:28:57,303
Climate expert
Radley Horton studies heat waves.
463
00:28:58,972 --> 00:29:01,841
RADLEY If we look
at the period from 2000 to 2009,
464
00:29:01,908 --> 00:29:05,145
in the US there were twice
as many extreme heat events
465
00:29:05,211 --> 00:29:07,113
as there were
extreme cold events.
466
00:29:08,248 --> 00:29:11,518
So we're seeing more records
getting broken on the heat side
467
00:29:11,584 --> 00:29:12,819
than on the cold side.
468
00:29:16,189 --> 00:29:18,324
The evidence
is indisputable.
469
00:29:20,527 --> 00:29:24,964
The world is getting hotter.
The question, is why?
470
00:29:27,233 --> 00:29:30,737
Professor Scott Denning
is trying to find the answer,
471
00:29:30,804 --> 00:29:35,742
by using data from a network of
super-tall towers that collect
472
00:29:35,809 --> 00:29:37,744
gases from high
in the atmosphere.
473
00:29:40,780 --> 00:29:43,249
SCOTT This tower
is about uh, 300 meters high,
474
00:29:43,316 --> 00:29:45,318
almost a thousand feet.
475
00:29:47,253 --> 00:29:49,622
And there are these plastic
tubes that you can see here
476
00:29:49,689 --> 00:29:53,360
that uh, run all the way up the
tower, they're collecting air,
477
00:29:53,426 --> 00:29:55,295
simply, uh, through inlets.
478
00:29:56,062 --> 00:29:58,898
The air is diverted to
an instrument at the bottom of the tower,
479
00:29:58,965 --> 00:30:02,102
which precisely measures
carbon dioxide levels.
480
00:30:04,371 --> 00:30:06,539
SCOTT These
measurements show that just recently
481
00:30:06,606 --> 00:30:11,244
the carbon dioxide has
reached 400 parts per million,
482
00:30:11,311 --> 00:30:14,514
400 molecules of carbon dioxide
per million molecules of air
483
00:30:14,581 --> 00:30:17,017
a higher level than the
carbon dioxide has been
484
00:30:17,083 --> 00:30:18,818
for millions of years.
485
00:30:19,886 --> 00:30:22,655
Most of this extra
carbon dioxide comes from
486
00:30:22,722 --> 00:30:26,426
the burning of coal, oil
and gas to power our homes,
487
00:30:26,493 --> 00:30:28,428
vehicles and cities.
488
00:30:30,463 --> 00:30:32,732
And now it's heating the planet.
489
00:30:34,534 --> 00:30:37,137
SCOTT Carbon
dioxide is a greenhouse gas,
490
00:30:37,203 --> 00:30:40,340
which means that it absorbs
heat radiation from the earth.
491
00:30:40,407 --> 00:30:44,244
As the heat radiation is
trapped by these molecules,
492
00:30:44,310 --> 00:30:46,212
it can then get re-emitted.
493
00:30:46,279 --> 00:30:48,682
And the part that gets
re-emitted downward
494
00:30:48,748 --> 00:30:50,917
will actually warm the surface.
495
00:30:51,284 --> 00:30:55,288
So, carbon dioxide emits
heat, heat warms things up,
496
00:30:55,355 --> 00:30:57,624
so if we add a lot of carbon
dioxide molecules
497
00:30:57,691 --> 00:31:00,193
to the atmosphere, it'll warm
the surface of the earth.
498
00:31:01,394 --> 00:31:04,397
Greenhouse gases like
carbon dioxide act like a giant
499
00:31:04,464 --> 00:31:07,567
invisible blanket,
holding in the warmth.
500
00:31:08,935 --> 00:31:12,172
Because of this, over the last
century the world has got
501
00:31:12,238 --> 00:31:14,507
just under one degree
Celsius warmer.
502
00:31:16,676 --> 00:31:20,347
That is why we're seeing more
extreme heat waves, more often.
503
00:31:22,315 --> 00:31:24,484
As well as
causing deadly temperatures,
504
00:31:24,551 --> 00:31:27,520
heat waves may also cause
catastrophic effects
505
00:31:27,587 --> 00:31:28,655
in the countryside.
506
00:31:29,789 --> 00:31:32,959
WOMAN Oh my god,
I gotta get out of here.
507
00:31:34,361 --> 00:31:37,897
MAN All the way down
the hill, dude, look at this. We gotta go!
508
00:31:39,065 --> 00:31:40,633
Experts are
investigating whether
509
00:31:40,700 --> 00:31:43,837
extreme heat is linked to
more wildfires.
510
00:31:46,339 --> 00:31:47,640
MAN I've never
seen anything like this.
511
00:31:47,707 --> 00:31:51,678
I can't stop shaking. Look at
that. All those homes.
512
00:31:52,245 --> 00:31:53,279
Over the
last few years,
513
00:31:53,346 --> 00:31:55,782
they've collected valuable
evidence from some of America's
514
00:31:55,849 --> 00:31:58,284
most destructive fires ever.
515
00:32:02,255 --> 00:32:03,790
June 2013.
516
00:32:03,857 --> 00:32:06,693
A fire breaks out in
Black Forest, Colorado.
517
00:32:09,829 --> 00:32:12,632
Daphne Knight and Ryan Butler
are on their way to work
518
00:32:12,699 --> 00:32:14,501
when they see smoke.
519
00:32:14,934 --> 00:32:16,436
On the day it
started, everything was fine,
520
00:32:16,503 --> 00:32:18,438
everything was green,
you just barely saw
521
00:32:18,505 --> 00:32:20,740
a little plume of smoke
off to the side there.
522
00:32:21,107 --> 00:32:22,108
DAPHNE Really we didn't
think it was going to be that big,
523
00:32:22,175 --> 00:32:25,945
we were just going up
this road and filming the smoke.
524
00:32:28,882 --> 00:32:33,553
RYAN Holy shit, that looks
like a damn explosion cloud, ya know?
525
00:32:34,888 --> 00:32:37,824
Fanned by high winds,
the fire spreads rapidly through
526
00:32:37,891 --> 00:32:39,793
the hot, dry undergrowth.
527
00:32:42,595 --> 00:32:44,364
Before fire-fighters
can control the blaze,
528
00:32:44,431 --> 00:32:46,332
it reaches a homestead.
529
00:32:50,270 --> 00:32:52,505
DAPHNE I'm pretty
sure it was the houses burning that,
530
00:32:52,572 --> 00:32:55,775
it just created this big
black plume of smoke.
531
00:33:00,046 --> 00:33:00,914
And it went
from day to night
532
00:33:00,980 --> 00:33:03,883
for a good couple of
hundred yards maybe.
533
00:33:05,452 --> 00:33:07,053
Oh, we're in it.
534
00:33:09,356 --> 00:33:11,224
The fire
burns out of control…
535
00:33:14,828 --> 00:33:16,629
…tearing through
whole neighborhoods.
536
00:33:29,342 --> 00:33:31,845
Within two days, it's already
the most destructive
537
00:33:31,911 --> 00:33:33,880
in Colorado's history.
538
00:33:35,315 --> 00:33:38,151
Nearly 40,000 people
are evacuated…
539
00:33:38,218 --> 00:33:40,520
as well as hundreds of animals.
540
00:33:43,857 --> 00:33:45,392
As they try to escape,
541
00:33:45,458 --> 00:33:48,094
two residents burn to death
in their garage.
542
00:33:51,064 --> 00:33:52,399
DAPHNE That's
where those people lived.
543
00:33:52,465 --> 00:33:53,566
RYAN Aw, jeeze.
544
00:33:53,633 --> 00:33:55,001
DAPHNE
The ones that died.
545
00:33:55,068 --> 00:33:56,670
RYAN That's the
house?
546
00:33:56,736 --> 00:33:58,104
That's where the
people lived that died?
547
00:33:58,171 --> 00:34:01,708
They had come home to get their
belongings 'cause they had heard
548
00:34:01,775 --> 00:34:05,011
about the fire, and that was it,
they didn't have time to get out
549
00:34:05,078 --> 00:34:06,446
It was in their own driveway.
550
00:34:06,513 --> 00:34:08,648
In the garage they were
packing up their stuff.
551
00:34:10,817 --> 00:34:12,619
Yeah, they didn't make it.
552
00:34:16,056 --> 00:34:19,859
There's another one of these
cars that just is completely burnt out.
553
00:34:23,697 --> 00:34:25,231
After a
week and a half,
554
00:34:25,298 --> 00:34:27,067
the fire is finally contained.
555
00:34:28,868 --> 00:34:31,504
Over 500 houses
have been destroyed.
556
00:34:35,742 --> 00:34:38,311
RYAN I think I'm
still in a state of shock.
557
00:34:38,378 --> 00:34:41,181
A lot of my friends'
homes, all they are is uh,
558
00:34:41,247 --> 00:34:42,716
just chimneys now.
559
00:34:44,150 --> 00:34:47,053
Colorado's three
most destructive wildfires
560
00:34:47,120 --> 00:34:49,422
have all burned in
the last two years.
561
00:34:51,391 --> 00:34:54,561
Both years also had
record-breaking heat waves.
562
00:34:59,833 --> 00:35:02,435
Climate scientist Jeff Lukas
is investigating
563
00:35:02,502 --> 00:35:04,070
the link between the two.
564
00:35:05,739 --> 00:35:08,675
He's searching for
answers inside trees.
565
00:35:10,076 --> 00:35:13,446
They contain a record of every
forest fire over their lifetime.
566
00:35:14,881 --> 00:35:18,385
This cross-section
here is from a Ponderosa Pine.
567
00:35:18,451 --> 00:35:21,855
And during its lifetime, uh,
fire was a frequent visitor
568
00:35:21,921 --> 00:35:25,992
to that forest, and the tree
experienced and recorded
569
00:35:26,059 --> 00:35:30,430
through scarring eight
separate wildfires, uh,
570
00:35:30,497 --> 00:35:34,367
each of which we can precisely
date uh, to the exact year.
571
00:35:35,602 --> 00:35:38,138
Tree rings also
tell him whether each year
572
00:35:38,204 --> 00:35:40,540
was hot and dry or cold and wet.
573
00:35:43,610 --> 00:35:46,646
He finds that the hottest,
driest years all coincide
574
00:35:46,713 --> 00:35:48,448
with the most wildfires.
575
00:35:52,018 --> 00:35:55,955
Throughout history, heat and
wildfires go hand in hand.
576
00:35:58,792 --> 00:36:01,895
Even though each
of these eight years was warmer
577
00:36:01,961 --> 00:36:07,434
than the average, uh, none of
these eight years is as warm as
578
00:36:07,500 --> 00:36:09,703
the last few decades
we've experienced.
579
00:36:09,769 --> 00:36:12,439
Particularly the last decade,
which has been the warmest
580
00:36:12,505 --> 00:36:16,409
in the uh, instrumental record
of over a hundred years
581
00:36:16,476 --> 00:36:17,777
in Colorado.
582
00:36:18,978 --> 00:36:21,881
Making the region's
forests more vulnerable than ever.
583
00:36:23,583 --> 00:36:25,985
JEFF Every degree
of warming will tend to dry out
584
00:36:26,052 --> 00:36:30,256
the soils; will dry out
vegetation; will dry dead fuels
585
00:36:30,323 --> 00:36:33,727
and make fires more likely,
make their spread more severe
586
00:36:33,793 --> 00:36:35,962
and make their
impacts more severe.
587
00:36:39,332 --> 00:36:42,235
Higher temperatures
are already taking their toll,
588
00:36:42,302 --> 00:36:43,703
around the world.
589
00:36:45,105 --> 00:36:49,442
In Australia the record-breaking
hot summer of 2012 to 2013,
590
00:36:49,509 --> 00:36:52,045
sets off devastating wildfires.
591
00:36:53,680 --> 00:36:56,149
This thirsty koala is
caught up in the blaze.
592
00:36:57,417 --> 00:36:59,252
MAN He's not
looking too well, really.
593
00:37:00,587 --> 00:37:03,423
Russia's hottest
summer on record also triggers
594
00:37:03,490 --> 00:37:05,792
hundreds of wildfires
across the country.
595
00:37:08,261 --> 00:37:10,497
Thousands flee from
burning villages.
596
00:37:27,447 --> 00:37:29,616
These men escape the inferno.
597
00:37:31,584 --> 00:37:34,220
54 others were not so lucky.
598
00:37:35,155 --> 00:37:38,725
Hotter, drier conditions
are causing more wildfires.
599
00:37:41,594 --> 00:37:43,196
As the climate changes,
600
00:37:43,263 --> 00:37:47,133
experts predict more forest
fires in the years and decades ahead.
601
00:37:49,002 --> 00:37:50,704
JEFF Unfortunately
I think we can expect that
602
00:37:50,770 --> 00:37:53,273
the fires we've been
experiencing in the last three years
603
00:37:53,340 --> 00:37:56,643
to be a harbinger
of the future.
604
00:37:58,345 --> 00:38:01,781
Research suggests
that by 2050, in some areas,
605
00:38:01,848 --> 00:38:05,051
wildfires could be five times
more destructive than today.
606
00:38:09,389 --> 00:38:12,359
As temperatures rise and
the land heats up and dries,
607
00:38:12,425 --> 00:38:13,860
more forests will burn.
608
00:38:15,662 --> 00:38:18,665
But as the sea warms up,
something truly terrifying
609
00:38:18,732 --> 00:38:20,100
could be unleashed.
610
00:38:22,769 --> 00:38:27,640
The biggest, most destructive
storms on the planet, hurricanes.
611
00:38:32,412 --> 00:38:34,447
At their worst,
they can generate winds
612
00:38:34,514 --> 00:38:38,018
of over 300 kilometers per hour
across a vast region
613
00:38:38,084 --> 00:38:39,953
hundreds of kilometers wide.
614
00:38:45,925 --> 00:38:48,728
GEORGE Every
single raindrop feels like someone
615
00:38:48,795 --> 00:38:49,796
hitting you with a needle.
616
00:38:49,863 --> 00:38:52,365
Every piece of gravel
feels like a bullet,
617
00:38:52,432 --> 00:38:55,268
pieces of metal will fly
around like helicopter blades.
618
00:38:55,335 --> 00:38:57,003
You just can't be out in it,
it's like being in a blender
619
00:38:57,070 --> 00:38:59,305
for hours and hours and hours.
620
00:39:01,341 --> 00:39:04,678
Hurricanes, also
called typhoons and cyclones,
621
00:39:04,744 --> 00:39:08,348
form and grow over oceans,
feeding off warm water.
622
00:39:10,417 --> 00:39:13,653
Which is why many scientists
fear warmer seas could already
623
00:39:13,720 --> 00:39:17,123
be making these monster
storms even more destructive.
624
00:39:18,558 --> 00:39:19,926
JOSH There's
pretty good reason to believe
625
00:39:19,993 --> 00:39:24,030
that stronger hurricanes will be
more frequent with global warming.
626
00:39:24,097 --> 00:39:27,100
That's mainly because the
source of energy for hurricanes
627
00:39:27,167 --> 00:39:29,903
primarily is very
warm ocean conditions.
628
00:39:29,969 --> 00:39:33,740
But we still need to learn
some important things about
629
00:39:33,807 --> 00:39:37,444
how hurricanes intensify,
how they extract their energy
630
00:39:37,510 --> 00:39:38,778
from the ocean.
631
00:39:39,179 --> 00:39:42,182
And we can only do that
by getting right up close
632
00:39:42,248 --> 00:39:44,884
to the surface and watching
what happens in the winds
633
00:39:44,951 --> 00:39:46,086
in the eye wall.
634
00:39:47,320 --> 00:39:50,323
October 2012,
a swirling mass of air
635
00:39:50,390 --> 00:39:53,893
is gathering high above the warm
waters off the Nicaraguan coast.
636
00:39:56,796 --> 00:39:58,331
A killer is born.
637
00:39:59,499 --> 00:40:01,801
This is Tropical Storm Sandy.
638
00:40:04,104 --> 00:40:07,941
In its eight day life,
Sandy will kill people in eight countries,
639
00:40:08,008 --> 00:40:11,945
and cause over 60
billion dollars' worth of damage.
640
00:40:15,915 --> 00:40:16,916
MAN Wow.
641
00:40:16,983 --> 00:40:20,754
At two days old, Sandy
becomes a full-blown hurricane
642
00:40:21,888 --> 00:40:23,990
raging across the Caribbean
643
00:40:33,433 --> 00:40:35,602
Raging across the Caribbean
644
00:40:35,669 --> 00:40:40,540
with nine meter high waves and
nearly 200 kilometers per hour winds
645
00:40:40,607 --> 00:40:43,176
killing at least 70 people.
646
00:40:46,046 --> 00:40:50,483
Sandy moves north, passing
over an unusually warm stretch of water,
647
00:40:50,550 --> 00:40:53,119
swelling into a superstorm.
648
00:40:56,756 --> 00:41:01,561
A monster hurricane, over
1,500 kilometers across.
649
00:41:02,729 --> 00:41:07,000
It then takes a sharp left turn,
directly toward
650
00:41:07,067 --> 00:41:09,336
America's most densely
populated coastline.
651
00:41:13,039 --> 00:41:15,175
OBAMA All of us
across the country are concerned about
652
00:41:15,241 --> 00:41:17,577
the potential impact
of Hurricane Sandy.
653
00:41:17,644 --> 00:41:21,448
Uh, this is a serious
and big storm.
654
00:41:22,549 --> 00:41:25,819
Sixty million people
brace for the superstorm about
655
00:41:25,885 --> 00:41:27,654
to make landfall in New Jersey.
656
00:41:29,956 --> 00:41:33,526
Climatologist Heidi Cullen
can hardly believe its size.
657
00:41:34,694 --> 00:41:36,363
HEIDI This
was an enormous storm.
658
00:41:36,429 --> 00:41:41,101
We're talking 900 miles wide,
roughly 1500 kilometers wide,
659
00:41:41,167 --> 00:41:42,702
which means that when
it made landfall,
660
00:41:42,769 --> 00:41:46,373
it stretched across an
enormous swathe of the country.
661
00:41:51,077 --> 00:41:52,846
October 29th.
662
00:41:52,912 --> 00:41:57,617
The largest Atlantic hurricane
in history makes landfall in America.
663
00:41:58,118 --> 00:41:59,519
MAN Wow!
664
00:42:11,131 --> 00:42:14,200
Storm chaser
George Kourounis is on Rockaway boardwalk
665
00:42:14,267 --> 00:42:17,037
in New York to witness the
extraordinary event.
666
00:42:18,471 --> 00:42:21,675
As the storm
was intensifying it became
667
00:42:21,741 --> 00:42:24,511
very clear to us that this
was no ordinary hurricane,
668
00:42:24,577 --> 00:42:26,746
this was gonna be
really, really bad.
669
00:42:30,784 --> 00:42:33,920
There was a mountain of waves
that was just being held there
670
00:42:33,987 --> 00:42:35,555
by the wind.
671
00:42:35,622 --> 00:42:37,490
And then eventually
it changed direction,
672
00:42:37,557 --> 00:42:42,896
and all that water came flying
in, taking all the sand with it,
673
00:42:42,962 --> 00:42:44,597
totally destroying
this neighborhood.
674
00:42:46,566 --> 00:42:48,968
New York has
weathered hurricanes before,
675
00:42:49,035 --> 00:42:52,372
but never this big… or with
such a high storm surge.
676
00:42:54,107 --> 00:42:56,242
The sea level rises up
four meters,
677
00:42:56,776 --> 00:42:58,878
nearly a meter higher
than ever before.
678
00:43:00,914 --> 00:43:03,350
GEORGE The surf
was as violent as I've ever seen
679
00:43:03,416 --> 00:43:05,852
in seventeen hurricanes
that I've been in.
680
00:43:06,419 --> 00:43:09,522
All the pieces of the boardwalk
got completely ripped up by
681
00:43:09,589 --> 00:43:13,059
the waves, dragged inland, I
don't know where they ended up,
682
00:43:13,126 --> 00:43:16,896
but not a single one
survived, nothing, none.
683
00:43:16,963 --> 00:43:18,431
Just the concrete.
684
00:43:22,902 --> 00:43:24,838
The Big
Apple is not prepared.
685
00:43:28,108 --> 00:43:31,845
John Mattiuzzi captures the
chaos in Manhattan on video.
686
00:43:32,212 --> 00:43:33,713
JOHN I started
walking down to the water,
687
00:43:35,415 --> 00:43:36,483
the flood was
starting to come up.
688
00:43:38,218 --> 00:43:39,352
It got pretty
dangerous over here,
689
00:43:39,419 --> 00:43:42,155
because there were these metal sheets
that must have weighed like 30 pounds.
690
00:43:42,222 --> 00:43:45,225
They were just woop woop woop!
Flipping through the air.
691
00:43:49,429 --> 00:43:52,232
Car alarms, they're singing.
692
00:43:55,335 --> 00:43:57,137
Water levels
rise relentlessly,
693
00:43:57,203 --> 00:43:58,538
pouring into buildings.
694
00:44:01,608 --> 00:44:06,913
MAN Oh my god, oh
my god. The door break open.
695
00:44:06,980 --> 00:44:09,382
The door just break open.
696
00:44:11,851 --> 00:44:13,153
Oh my god.
697
00:44:14,921 --> 00:44:16,156
The subway floods.
698
00:44:21,594 --> 00:44:24,330
And seawater gushes into
electrical substations,
699
00:44:24,397 --> 00:44:27,767
which short circuit and explode.
700
00:44:30,103 --> 00:44:31,838
Then all of a
sudden, my camera just lit up.
701
00:44:34,674 --> 00:44:37,043
Then we get another huge flash.
A blue blast.
702
00:44:40,146 --> 00:44:42,248
WOMAN I
think it just exploded.
703
00:44:43,850 --> 00:44:45,385
As the power fails,
704
00:44:45,452 --> 00:44:47,921
explosions continue
to light up the sky.
705
00:44:48,722 --> 00:44:49,889
JOHN And
throughout the night,
706
00:44:49,956 --> 00:44:52,559
you'd see these blue
explosions in the distance,
707
00:44:52,625 --> 00:44:54,694
which became extremely spooky.
708
00:44:55,428 --> 00:44:58,164
It looked like something out
of, you know, Independence Day.
709
00:45:02,369 --> 00:45:04,270
By the next day,
the hurricane reaches
710
00:45:04,337 --> 00:45:06,873
over 1100 kilometers inland.
711
00:45:08,141 --> 00:45:10,343
It was so big, it
was causing 20 foot waves.
712
00:45:10,410 --> 00:45:13,046
People were surfing on Lake
Michigan outside of Chicago
713
00:45:13,113 --> 00:45:14,748
from a storm that was
pounding the east coast.
714
00:45:22,756 --> 00:45:25,759
Finally, Hurricane
Sandy runs out of steam.
715
00:45:28,628 --> 00:45:31,064
It leaves behind a vast
trail of destruction,
716
00:45:33,066 --> 00:45:34,834
and takes over
two hundred lives.
717
00:45:39,205 --> 00:45:41,608
In New Jersey and Long Island,
entire neighborhoods
718
00:45:41,675 --> 00:45:43,076
have been washed away.
719
00:45:45,412 --> 00:45:47,714
Meteorologists use
a scale called the integrated
720
00:45:47,781 --> 00:45:51,217
kinetic energy scale to measure
the overall energy of a storm,
721
00:45:51,284 --> 00:45:54,721
And Sandy had the second
most ever on that scale.
722
00:45:55,288 --> 00:45:58,058
It had the energy equivalent
of two atomic bombs,
723
00:45:58,124 --> 00:45:59,826
that's how powerful it was.
724
00:46:00,894 --> 00:46:03,730
Sandy was dubbed
Frankenstorm by the media.
725
00:46:06,466 --> 00:46:08,601
A powerful beast of a hurricane.
726
00:46:09,869 --> 00:46:11,304
Was it a freak of nature?
727
00:46:12,072 --> 00:46:15,542
Or, like Frankenstein, could
mankind have brought
728
00:46:15,608 --> 00:46:19,412
this monster to life by
changing the climate?
729
00:46:22,048 --> 00:46:24,684
One hurricane is not
enough to say for sure.
730
00:46:26,019 --> 00:46:29,222
But experts are also studying
other remarkable hurricanes
731
00:46:29,289 --> 00:46:30,724
from the last decade.
732
00:46:31,758 --> 00:46:34,728
2005 produced more
Atlantic tropical storms
733
00:46:34,794 --> 00:46:36,296
than any other year on record.
734
00:46:37,797 --> 00:46:40,800
Including America's costliest
weather disaster ever,
735
00:46:40,867 --> 00:46:42,969
Hurricane Katrina.
736
00:46:43,436 --> 00:46:46,039
MAN Holy cow.
That was the roof!
737
00:46:50,677 --> 00:46:53,980
In 2005, it's the
first time ever we ran out
738
00:46:54,047 --> 00:46:56,583
of letters in the alphabet
to name our storms.
739
00:46:57,083 --> 00:46:58,918
We actually had to go
to the Greek alphabet,
740
00:46:58,985 --> 00:47:00,320
that's how many we had!
741
00:47:00,387 --> 00:47:03,757
And we had seven category
three or stronger storms, unprecedented.
742
00:47:04,057 --> 00:47:06,426
2010, second
busiest season ever.
743
00:47:08,061 --> 00:47:09,963
And it's not just
Atlantic hurricanes
744
00:47:10,030 --> 00:47:11,598
that are behaving strangely.
745
00:47:13,600 --> 00:47:17,170
In the Pacific, the strongest
super typhoon ever known to hit
746
00:47:17,237 --> 00:47:19,172
the southern Philippines forms.
747
00:47:26,813 --> 00:47:29,716
And in the Bay of Bengal,
three destructive cyclones
748
00:47:29,783 --> 00:47:32,285
make landfall in just two years.
749
00:47:34,154 --> 00:47:36,556
These recent events suggest
hurricanes are changing
750
00:47:36,623 --> 00:47:39,159
in frequency, strength
and location.
751
00:47:40,126 --> 00:47:42,062
But it seems they are
killing less people.
752
00:47:44,898 --> 00:47:47,901
In 1900,
a hurricane destroys Galveston,
753
00:47:47,967 --> 00:47:50,637
at the time the
biggest city in Texas,
754
00:47:53,239 --> 00:47:55,008
and kills 6000 people.
755
00:47:58,244 --> 00:48:00,880
More than any hurricane
in American history.
756
00:48:06,186 --> 00:48:10,390
In 1970, Cyclone Bhola kills
over half a million people
757
00:48:10,457 --> 00:48:11,591
in what is now Bangladesh.
758
00:48:14,027 --> 00:48:16,029
The deadliest
cyclone ever known.
759
00:48:19,032 --> 00:48:21,201
These hurricanes weren't
necessarily more powerful
760
00:48:21,267 --> 00:48:24,237
than today's, the people
were less prepared.
761
00:48:26,239 --> 00:48:29,009
JOSH When
hurricanes hit 30, 40, 50 years ago,
762
00:48:29,075 --> 00:48:31,544
they pretty much
happened by surprise.
763
00:48:32,178 --> 00:48:35,749
People had almost no time
to prepare to get to safety.
764
00:48:35,815 --> 00:48:40,286
Forecasting didn't exist.
Satellites didn't exist.
765
00:48:40,353 --> 00:48:43,123
Communication was primitive.
766
00:48:45,959 --> 00:48:47,727
MAN (over loud speaker:: The Mayor
of the city of New York has ordered
767
00:48:47,794 --> 00:48:50,864
a mandatory evacuation of
the island of Broad Channel.
768
00:48:51,598 --> 00:48:54,367
Hurricanes kill fewer
people today because we have
769
00:48:54,434 --> 00:48:57,937
better technology, not because
they're getting weaker.
770
00:48:59,939 --> 00:49:02,409
JOSH Now, pretty
much anywhere in the world,
771
00:49:02,475 --> 00:49:05,612
if a tropical storm is
coming towards the coast,
772
00:49:05,679 --> 00:49:09,883
those people know a storm is
coming and while still you can
773
00:49:09,949 --> 00:49:13,420
have a huge tragedy, it is
not the monumental tragedies
774
00:49:13,486 --> 00:49:14,954
that happened decades ago.
775
00:49:17,090 --> 00:49:19,125
To find out if
hurricanes really are changing
776
00:49:19,192 --> 00:49:21,428
in strength… or frequency,
777
00:49:21,494 --> 00:49:23,963
the most reliable data
comes from satellites
778
00:49:24,030 --> 00:49:25,065
and weather radars.
779
00:49:27,600 --> 00:49:30,737
They record every hurricane
around the world
780
00:49:30,804 --> 00:49:32,539
and can measure
their wind speed.
781
00:49:34,741 --> 00:49:37,544
And they seem to be picking
up a disturbing trend:
782
00:49:38,945 --> 00:49:41,815
There are more of the
most extreme hurricanes.
783
00:49:43,650 --> 00:49:45,719
The strongest
tropical cyclones are becoming
784
00:49:45,785 --> 00:49:49,823
more frequent uh, globally it
seems based on the limited data
785
00:49:49,889 --> 00:49:51,057
that we have.
786
00:49:51,124 --> 00:49:53,226
It's tricky though because
we've only had satellites
787
00:49:53,293 --> 00:49:54,861
for about three decades.
788
00:49:54,928 --> 00:49:57,864
In some parts of the world we
have observed an upward trend in
789
00:49:57,931 --> 00:49:59,599
the number of extreme cyclones.
790
00:50:00,233 --> 00:50:02,402
To be certain that
the most powerful hurricanes
791
00:50:02,469 --> 00:50:04,671
are striking more often, we need
792
00:50:04,738 --> 00:50:07,107
reliable records over
a longer period.
793
00:50:09,275 --> 00:50:11,611
But the recent trend does match
what some scientists expect
794
00:50:11,678 --> 00:50:14,080
to happen as the mercury rises.
795
00:50:16,983 --> 00:50:20,620
Warmer oceans provide
more fuel for hurricanes.
796
00:50:22,422 --> 00:50:25,025
SCOTT So every
half a degree Celsius
797
00:50:25,091 --> 00:50:27,293
or one degree Fahrenheit
warming of the ocean,
798
00:50:27,360 --> 00:50:28,695
you're going to increase
799
00:50:28,762 --> 00:50:31,031
the wind speeds in these storms
ten to 20 miles per hour,
800
00:50:31,097 --> 00:50:33,800
or 16 to 32 kilometers per hour.
801
00:50:34,134 --> 00:50:37,570
And so Sandy clearly was
energized by the warm oceans
802
00:50:37,637 --> 00:50:41,841
and researchers believe that at
least one degree Fahrenheit,
803
00:50:41,908 --> 00:50:44,611
or half a degree Celsius of the
warming of that water was due
804
00:50:44,678 --> 00:50:47,681
to man-made global warming. So
clearly, that had an impact.
805
00:50:50,450 --> 00:50:51,785
But there
are other factors
806
00:50:51,851 --> 00:50:53,253
that could actually
weaken hurricanes.
807
00:50:54,721 --> 00:50:56,523
RADLEY We can't
say for sure that hurricanes are
808
00:50:56,589 --> 00:50:57,857
gonna get stronger because
there are other things
809
00:50:57,924 --> 00:50:59,726
that affect hurricanes as well.
810
00:50:59,793 --> 00:51:02,195
Wind shear, differences in wind
height throughout the atmosphere
811
00:51:02,262 --> 00:51:05,065
for example, but the balance
of evidence suggests that
812
00:51:05,131 --> 00:51:08,335
the strongest storms are gonna
get stronger as those ocean
813
00:51:08,401 --> 00:51:09,803
temperatures rise.
814
00:51:12,906 --> 00:51:15,241
Another effect of
global warming could make
815
00:51:15,308 --> 00:51:17,177
hurricanes even deadlier.
816
00:51:20,580 --> 00:51:23,950
Melting ice and warming oceans
are raising sea levels
817
00:51:24,017 --> 00:51:27,053
and that will mean more
devastating storm surges.
818
00:51:32,892 --> 00:51:33,793
Scott Mandia explains.
819
00:51:35,995 --> 00:51:37,864
Well, a storm surge
is a like a basketball dunk
820
00:51:37,931 --> 00:51:40,700
in that it doesn't happen
very often, but when it does,
821
00:51:40,767 --> 00:51:42,402
it's an extraordinary event.
822
00:51:44,704 --> 00:51:47,741
As powerful winds
push seawater toward the coast,
823
00:51:47,807 --> 00:51:49,309
the water piles up.
824
00:51:52,312 --> 00:51:53,713
So you can imagine
as that storm gets higher,
825
00:51:53,780 --> 00:51:56,116
it's kind of like somebody
jumping up and slam dunking.
826
00:51:56,182 --> 00:51:59,886
That water gets up over the
defense …and does its damage.
827
00:52:01,121 --> 00:52:03,356
Only the most powerful
storms can push the water
828
00:52:03,423 --> 00:52:05,025
high enough to cause floods.
829
00:52:06,926 --> 00:52:09,329
Just like only the tallest
players can reach high enough
830
00:52:09,396 --> 00:52:10,563
to slam dunk.
831
00:52:13,667 --> 00:52:16,970
So now imagine if
we raise the basketball floor a foot.
832
00:52:17,037 --> 00:52:18,972
Now the average
basketball player can make
833
00:52:19,039 --> 00:52:21,741
a dunk where before only
the tallest ones could.
834
00:52:22,409 --> 00:52:23,843
That's what's going on
in the oceans right now.
835
00:52:23,910 --> 00:52:26,746
Humans are warming the planet,
we're making the water expand,
836
00:52:26,813 --> 00:52:28,081
we're melting a lot of ice.
837
00:52:28,148 --> 00:52:29,816
The ocean's physically
one foot higher.
838
00:52:31,017 --> 00:52:33,019
This higher sea level
means that less extreme storms
839
00:52:33,086 --> 00:52:34,988
can now cause flooding.
840
00:52:37,290 --> 00:52:39,292
So now average
storms are causing surges
841
00:52:39,359 --> 00:52:41,361
that inundate our
coastal defenses.
842
00:52:41,428 --> 00:52:43,863
So we have worse damage
from the extreme storms,
843
00:52:43,930 --> 00:52:46,466
and damage we never had before
from what you call the average
844
00:52:46,533 --> 00:52:49,602
storm, like an average player
normally can't dunk, now he can.
845
00:52:51,638 --> 00:52:52,706
Nice one.
846
00:52:56,509 --> 00:52:59,379
Storm surges are most
damaging to places that aren't
847
00:52:59,446 --> 00:53:00,647
prepared for them.
848
00:53:02,082 --> 00:53:05,085
And as the climate changes,
cyclones may start appearing
849
00:53:05,151 --> 00:53:08,154
in parts of the world
they've never been seen before.
850
00:53:09,923 --> 00:53:12,459
Hurricanes, particularly
the strongest hurricanes,
851
00:53:12,525 --> 00:53:16,196
are confined to very
specific parts of the world.
852
00:53:16,262 --> 00:53:19,199
And that's because there
are certain conditions
853
00:53:19,265 --> 00:53:22,035
which enable them to form
and become quite violent.
854
00:53:23,203 --> 00:53:27,574
In a globally warmed environment
those areas might change.
855
00:53:28,074 --> 00:53:29,509
We might get new hurricanes
856
00:53:29,576 --> 00:53:30,877
where they've never
happened before.
857
00:53:30,944 --> 00:53:33,580
And we might have some areas
that have hurricanes now,
858
00:53:33,646 --> 00:53:36,016
which don't have them with
global climate change.
859
00:53:38,018 --> 00:53:40,320
In fact, this
may have already happened.
860
00:53:42,389 --> 00:53:45,525
Hurricanes had never been known
to form in the South Atlantic.
861
00:53:46,860 --> 00:53:50,463
Never, until 2004 when
a hurricane appears out
862
00:53:50,530 --> 00:53:53,566
of the blue and slams
into South America.
863
00:53:58,104 --> 00:53:59,973
JOSH Several years
ago, a hurricane formed
864
00:54:00,040 --> 00:54:05,345
in the South Atlantic, much
to our surprise, and hit Brazil.
865
00:54:06,079 --> 00:54:10,283
MAN
866
00:54:18,358 --> 00:54:21,594
Fortunately no densely
populated cities are hit,
867
00:54:23,830 --> 00:54:25,765
so the death toll is just four.
868
00:54:27,934 --> 00:54:30,670
Next time, Brazil
might not be so lucky.
869
00:54:32,405 --> 00:54:34,974
JOSH One of
the biggest risks with climate change
870
00:54:35,041 --> 00:54:38,912
is that it can bring violent
weather to places
871
00:54:38,978 --> 00:54:42,816
which aren't experienced,
who aren't hardened,
872
00:54:42,882 --> 00:54:46,519
who aren't practiced to defend
themselves against that type
873
00:54:46,586 --> 00:54:47,854
of violent weather.
874
00:54:47,921 --> 00:54:50,924
In Brazil the hurricane
that hit was fairly close
875
00:54:50,990 --> 00:54:54,761
to Rio de Janeiro which probably
doesn't know what to do
876
00:54:54,828 --> 00:54:56,463
if a hurricane comes.
877
00:54:56,529 --> 00:54:58,965
Those areas could be
particularly at risk.
878
00:55:05,305 --> 00:55:09,342
In the future,
Rio could be right in the firing line.
879
00:55:10,610 --> 00:55:13,646
Trees uprooted, black-outs
across the city,
880
00:55:13,713 --> 00:55:15,382
and homes destroyed.
881
00:55:18,218 --> 00:55:20,186
With a population of six million
882
00:55:20,253 --> 00:55:22,789
and over a million in poorly
constructed favelas,
883
00:55:22,856 --> 00:55:25,592
a direct hit would
be a catastrophe.
884
00:55:31,831 --> 00:55:34,000
Hurricanes may
dominate the headlines,
885
00:55:37,637 --> 00:55:39,906
but the weather that has
the biggest impact on lives
886
00:55:39,973 --> 00:55:41,775
is far more ordinary:
887
00:55:44,110 --> 00:55:45,345
Rain.
888
00:55:46,980 --> 00:55:50,183
Too much rain can have
extraordinary consequences…
889
00:55:56,956 --> 00:55:59,359
bringing flash
floods and mudslides.
890
00:56:03,396 --> 00:56:05,665
Destruction on a grand scale.
891
00:56:08,201 --> 00:56:10,837
More rain would affect
people all over the planet.
892
00:56:12,972 --> 00:56:16,376
So scientists are searching for
changes in rainfall patterns.
893
00:56:18,411 --> 00:56:21,014
They're monitoring the world's
biggest drenching:
894
00:56:21,881 --> 00:56:23,817
The yearly monsoon in India.
895
00:56:29,789 --> 00:56:32,392
Trillions of gallons of
water fall from the sky…
896
00:56:35,228 --> 00:56:39,032
Transforming the landscape
from brown and dry…
897
00:56:41,134 --> 00:56:42,769
To green and fertile.
898
00:56:46,940 --> 00:56:49,776
Professor Sir Brian Hoskins
is one of the world's leading
899
00:56:49,843 --> 00:56:51,878
experts on the Indian monsoon.
900
00:56:54,047 --> 00:56:57,183
BRIAN The monsoon
in India is just an amazing thing.
901
00:56:57,250 --> 00:57:01,755
It happens every year
with great regularity.
902
00:57:02,222 --> 00:57:05,725
And it produces all water that
can give them their agriculture
903
00:57:05,792 --> 00:57:07,060
and their whole life.
904
00:57:09,796 --> 00:57:13,566
This densely populated
country has over a billion people.
905
00:57:15,935 --> 00:57:19,372
And they all rely on the monsoon
to provide food and water.
906
00:57:21,474 --> 00:57:23,610
But India has a
love-hate relationship
907
00:57:23,677 --> 00:57:25,078
with its rainy season.
908
00:57:27,347 --> 00:57:31,785
As well as sustaining
life, it can also take it.
909
00:57:34,287 --> 00:57:35,955
June 2013.
910
00:57:38,058 --> 00:57:40,393
Hundreds of thousands of people
make their annual pilgrimage up
911
00:57:40,460 --> 00:57:42,595
these narrow Himalayan valleys.
912
00:57:45,565 --> 00:57:49,402
They plan to return before the
monsoon arrives here in July.
913
00:57:55,909 --> 00:57:57,844
But this year is different.
914
00:58:00,080 --> 00:58:02,315
The monsoon was running
several weeks ahead of schedule
915
00:58:02,382 --> 00:58:04,084
and people likely
were not prepared
916
00:58:04,150 --> 00:58:07,187
to have such intense rainfall so
early in the monsoon season.
917
00:58:08,254 --> 00:58:10,490
The rainfall is three
times heavier than normal
918
00:58:10,557 --> 00:58:11,758
for this region.
919
00:58:13,159 --> 00:58:15,195
The rain rushes down
the steep slopes,
920
00:58:15,261 --> 00:58:17,530
causing the river
to rapidly overflow.
921
00:58:20,767 --> 00:58:24,070
And stranding thousands of
pilgrims in mountain villages.
922
00:58:27,140 --> 00:58:30,143
Local villager Kundilal
witnesses the chaos.
923
00:58:33,146 --> 00:58:35,782
- The river started
turning ferocious at around- 00.
924
00:58:38,885 --> 00:58:40,687
I saw everything.
925
00:58:41,287 --> 00:58:43,156
I was looking down
and I saw everything
926
00:58:43,223 --> 00:58:44,891
being washed away by the river.
927
00:58:52,232 --> 00:58:54,734
All buildings were drowned
by the might of the river.
928
00:58:58,672 --> 00:59:01,074
The river swells
to a dangerous level.
929
00:59:03,109 --> 00:59:06,246
Submerging or sweeping
away hundreds of houses.
930
00:59:13,787 --> 00:59:16,189
KUNDILAL Now where
the river flows is where all the houses
931
00:59:16,256 --> 00:59:17,357
used to be.
932
00:59:19,225 --> 00:59:21,728
Further downstream,
Suraj Singh is working
933
00:59:21,795 --> 00:59:23,763
in a restaurant
when the flood hits.
934
00:59:25,999 --> 00:59:27,667
SURAJ There was
a massive amount of water
935
00:59:27,734 --> 00:59:29,302
so we had to quickly escape.
936
00:59:31,705 --> 00:59:33,740
We ran up a mountain
and stood on a rock.
937
00:59:35,442 --> 00:59:38,111
When we looked down, it
was a horrific sight.
938
00:59:50,623 --> 00:59:53,993
Out of seven of us who
worked in that restaurant,
939
00:59:54,060 --> 00:59:56,296
four of us had drowned
there and then.
940
00:59:59,766 --> 01:00:01,468
The river sweeps
hundreds of people
941
01:00:01,534 --> 01:00:04,037
to their death, many
of them pilgrims.
942
01:00:05,071 --> 01:00:06,840
SURAJ Maybe 2% or
3% of them managed
943
01:00:06,906 --> 01:00:10,410
to save themselves, but there
wasn't much hope of survival.
944
01:00:17,650 --> 01:00:19,486
By the time
the flood subsides,
945
01:00:19,552 --> 01:00:22,188
over 5,000 lives are lost.
946
01:00:27,127 --> 01:00:28,895
SURAJ I had
no hope of coming out alive.
947
01:00:29,396 --> 01:00:31,531
I kept thinking I'd never
see my children again.
948
01:00:34,234 --> 01:00:38,738
Even now I'm home, I sometimes
break down into tears on my own.
949
01:00:42,475 --> 01:00:45,412
We never thought such
a disaster could happen here.
950
01:00:45,478 --> 01:00:50,383
I am 61 years old and never
have I seen such fury of nature.
951
01:00:53,319 --> 01:00:55,622
The 2013 monsoon
floods are the deadliest
952
01:00:55,689 --> 01:00:57,424
in India's history.
953
01:01:01,561 --> 01:01:04,464
Over the last decade,
destructive flash floods
954
01:01:04,531 --> 01:01:06,099
have struck around the world
955
01:01:07,967 --> 01:01:09,269
from Canada
956
01:01:09,969 --> 01:01:14,007
MAN Oh my god.
Oh that's destroyed the back of his car.
957
01:01:15,041 --> 01:01:16,209
To Mauritius.
958
01:01:16,276 --> 01:01:17,677
MAN
Hey, be careful!
959
01:01:18,445 --> 01:01:19,713
To Australia.
960
01:01:20,246 --> 01:01:23,083
Here the most destructive floods
in the country's history cause
961
01:01:23,149 --> 01:01:25,852
over 20 billion dollars'
worth of damage.
962
01:01:27,420 --> 01:01:32,292
MAN Oh my
goodness. There's another one. Oh no.
963
01:01:33,026 --> 01:01:36,896
The rest of them are gone.
Oh that is horrible.
964
01:01:41,101 --> 01:01:43,503
A canoeist manages
to see the funny side…
965
01:01:45,438 --> 01:01:48,341
When a drive through
becomes a paddle through.
966
01:01:48,408 --> 01:01:49,976
MAN Would
you like fries with that?
967
01:01:51,044 --> 01:01:52,645
Yeah all right I'll
have a hamburger.
968
01:01:55,015 --> 01:01:57,684
In Russia, water
sports enthusiasts make the best
969
01:01:57,751 --> 01:02:00,387
of the heaviest rain there
in living memory.
970
01:02:10,196 --> 01:02:12,198
It seems nowhere is immune.
971
01:02:13,233 --> 01:02:17,470
Even in Saudi Arabia,
almost twice the average annual rainfall
972
01:02:17,537 --> 01:02:19,239
drops in just a few hours…
973
01:02:22,208 --> 01:02:23,910
taking many by surprise.
974
01:02:26,446 --> 01:02:29,616
And in Brazil, flash floods
strike so quickly that people
975
01:02:29,683 --> 01:02:32,519
don't even have time to escape
their houses before they're
976
01:02:32,585 --> 01:02:34,554
surrounded by raging water.
977
01:02:47,300 --> 01:02:49,436
A daring leap saves
this woman's life.
978
01:02:51,604 --> 01:02:53,406
But she loses her
dog to the deluge.
979
01:02:56,810 --> 01:03:00,113
700 people die in Brazil's
worst ever natural disaster.
980
01:03:02,982 --> 01:03:05,285
In some parts of the world,
it seems clear that floods
981
01:03:05,352 --> 01:03:07,620
are killing more
than ever before.
982
01:03:11,691 --> 01:03:15,095
There's a better way to discover
if the heating up of the Earth
983
01:03:15,161 --> 01:03:17,397
is contributing to more
destructive floods.
984
01:03:19,132 --> 01:03:21,868
By measuring how much
water vapor is in the air.
985
01:03:23,536 --> 01:03:25,238
PETER
There's 3% or 4% more moisture
986
01:03:25,305 --> 01:03:28,174
in the atmosphere globally
than there was in the 1970s.
987
01:03:28,241 --> 01:03:30,810
And this is an entirely expected
consequence of a warming
988
01:03:30,877 --> 01:03:34,681
atmosphere that evaporates
more water off the oceans
989
01:03:34,748 --> 01:03:37,417
and leads to more
atmospheric moisture.
990
01:03:40,053 --> 01:03:43,156
And with more
water in the air, when storms develop,
991
01:03:43,223 --> 01:03:44,891
there's extra rain to fall.
992
01:03:48,128 --> 01:03:50,397
PETER With
that has come changing rainfall patterns.
993
01:03:50,463 --> 01:03:54,367
So if you look globally, there's
a clear tendency for a greater
994
01:03:54,434 --> 01:03:56,569
intensity of heavy
rainfall events.
995
01:04:05,545 --> 01:04:08,081
In the future, more
moisture in the air could mean
996
01:04:08,148 --> 01:04:10,884
even heavier rain and
more intense flooding.
997
01:04:12,285 --> 01:04:14,487
Particularly in tropical
regions like India.
998
01:04:18,792 --> 01:04:22,962
Here, the monsoon could drop up
to 15% more water than today.
999
01:04:26,099 --> 01:04:28,501
Raging floods could
overwhelm the country.
1000
01:04:36,509 --> 01:04:38,044
So we're
getting more rain.
1001
01:04:39,679 --> 01:04:42,982
But weather experts are
struggling to solve a cruel enigma.
1002
01:04:45,719 --> 01:04:49,222
As much of the world gets
wetter, other parts get drier.
1003
01:04:49,889 --> 01:04:51,057
Why?
1004
01:04:52,359 --> 01:04:53,460
In
the sub tropics,
1005
01:04:53,526 --> 01:04:54,961
think the desert
parts of the world,
1006
01:04:55,028 --> 01:04:56,329
there's actually less rainfall.
1007
01:04:56,396 --> 01:04:59,466
The parts of the world that are
already very dry
1008
01:04:59,532 --> 01:05:00,700
tend to get drier.
1009
01:05:02,335 --> 01:05:05,238
And possibly the only
thing worse than too much rain,
1010
01:05:05,305 --> 01:05:06,573
is not enough.
1011
01:05:07,474 --> 01:05:08,641
Drought.
1012
01:05:09,275 --> 01:05:12,445
A shortage of water
creates a big problem.
1013
01:05:13,913 --> 01:05:17,751
SCOTT As the vegetation
becomes stressed in a drought,
1014
01:05:17,817 --> 01:05:20,420
the roots die off.
1015
01:05:21,254 --> 01:05:25,125
The soil is then loose um,
and the wind can come along
1016
01:05:25,191 --> 01:05:27,761
and lift little
grains of soil up.
1017
01:05:30,163 --> 01:05:33,867
And you get these rolling
billows of dust that blow
1018
01:05:33,933 --> 01:05:35,301
across the landscape.
1019
01:05:35,635 --> 01:05:37,804
When these build
up, they can grow into one
1020
01:05:37,871 --> 01:05:42,976
of nature's most spectacular
phenomena: A dust storm.
1021
01:05:45,879 --> 01:05:47,380
Phoenix, Arizona.
1022
01:05:47,447 --> 01:05:49,282
July 5th, 2011.
1023
01:05:51,851 --> 01:05:54,688
After nearly 14 consecutive
dry years
1024
01:05:56,189 --> 01:05:57,357
a strong wind picks up
1025
01:05:57,424 --> 01:06:00,160
vast amounts of
loose parched soil.
1026
01:06:02,595 --> 01:06:06,399
MAN Holy Cow! Massive
dust storm coming towards us!
1027
01:06:07,701 --> 01:06:09,803
Arizona has
dust storms every year,
1028
01:06:10,570 --> 01:06:12,238
but this one is different.
1029
01:06:13,873 --> 01:06:18,511
People stop and stare at the
160 kilometer wide wave of dirt.
1030
01:06:20,080 --> 01:06:22,248
MAN Seriously
Wendy, get out of the pool.
1031
01:06:23,116 --> 01:06:24,451
The biggest
in a generation.
1032
01:06:24,517 --> 01:06:26,252
MOTHER
What the hell is that?
1033
01:06:26,319 --> 01:06:30,690
CHILD Mom I'm
scared! Daddy! Oh my god!
1034
01:06:30,757 --> 01:06:32,325
MOTHER
It's alright guys.
1035
01:06:36,196 --> 01:06:39,399
John Melton is new
to Arizona and its weather.
1036
01:06:40,700 --> 01:06:41,668
As I walking
around to the truck,
1037
01:06:41,735 --> 01:06:44,037
I opened the door
and happened to look up
1038
01:06:45,872 --> 01:06:49,943
and see a gigantic dust cloud
come through the neighborhoods there.
1039
01:06:52,212 --> 01:06:54,114
I could taste the
grit in the air.
1040
01:06:54,180 --> 01:06:57,584
It was just a large
boiling cloud of dust.
1041
01:06:59,753 --> 01:07:03,490
The tidal wave of grit
grows over a kilometer and a half high
1042
01:07:03,556 --> 01:07:05,091
and swallows Phoenix whole.
1043
01:07:13,700 --> 01:07:16,002
As the dust wall
passes overhead,
1044
01:07:16,069 --> 01:07:18,505
the entire city
plunges into darkness.
1045
01:07:20,306 --> 01:07:22,442
MAN It's gone
from day to night!
1046
01:07:23,576 --> 01:07:25,679
The blanket of
dust blocks out the sun.
1047
01:07:26,813 --> 01:07:28,782
As I turned
onto the main road here,
1048
01:07:28,848 --> 01:07:30,383
I was just engulfed
in the storm.
1049
01:07:32,886 --> 01:07:34,754
This is a very regular
route that I drive,
1050
01:07:36,423 --> 01:07:39,259
uh, it just felt so
alien and unfamiliar.
1051
01:07:41,528 --> 01:07:43,063
Almost unrecognizable.
1052
01:07:45,365 --> 01:07:49,903
It's just a crazy
pitch-black dust storm.
1053
01:07:50,770 --> 01:07:52,472
Can't see more than ten feet.
1054
01:07:53,807 --> 01:07:57,043
It's like some kind of
apocalypse movie, I swear.
1055
01:07:59,913 --> 01:08:02,315
The spectacle
is all over in 40 minutes.
1056
01:08:04,351 --> 01:08:06,519
But the biggest dust storm
in decades
1057
01:08:06,586 --> 01:08:09,689
has left Phoenix
filthy and stunned.
1058
01:08:12,459 --> 01:08:14,894
The usually silent,
invisible drought
1059
01:08:14,961 --> 01:08:16,529
has made its presence felt.
1060
01:08:19,566 --> 01:08:23,303
But a lack of water can have
even more terrible consequences.
1061
01:08:28,408 --> 01:08:31,778
America knows the perils of
drought from bitter experience.
1062
01:08:34,314 --> 01:08:36,116
SCOTT There
was a prolonged drought
1063
01:08:36,182 --> 01:08:38,685
in the central part
of the United States
1064
01:08:38,752 --> 01:08:41,888
which is historically referred
to as the dust bowl.
1065
01:08:47,861 --> 01:08:51,064
In the 1930s,
over 70% of the topsoil
1066
01:08:51,131 --> 01:08:54,634
was blown away across a vast
swathe of the United States.
1067
01:08:57,070 --> 01:08:58,304
Destroying crops,
1068
01:08:59,839 --> 01:09:01,574
causing livestock to starve
1069
01:09:03,143 --> 01:09:06,212
and triggering one of the biggest
migrations in America's history.
1070
01:09:08,815 --> 01:09:12,585
Millions left their homes and
farms in search of work and food.
1071
01:09:15,155 --> 01:09:18,525
SCOTT There are these
classic photo montages of that period
1072
01:09:18,591 --> 01:09:21,327
with farms just
being buried in dust.
1073
01:09:22,896 --> 01:09:25,832
It was a dreadful,
terrible climate disaster.
1074
01:09:27,033 --> 01:09:29,269
Yet the recent drought
in America's southwest
1075
01:09:29,336 --> 01:09:30,870
has been even worse.
1076
01:09:31,471 --> 01:09:33,273
Particularly
parts of Texas, and,
1077
01:09:33,340 --> 01:09:35,575
and Kansas and Oklahoma uh,
1078
01:09:35,642 --> 01:09:37,344
have actually been more impacted
1079
01:09:37,410 --> 01:09:40,113
in the, in the 21st century
than they were in the 1930s.
1080
01:09:41,448 --> 01:09:44,317
Some estimates put
the cost of the North American drought
1081
01:09:44,384 --> 01:09:46,286
at over 100 billion dollars.
1082
01:09:47,987 --> 01:09:49,155
MAN I just looked
at my thermometer and got
1083
01:09:49,222 --> 01:09:50,757
105 in the shade.
1084
01:09:51,825 --> 01:09:53,993
Look at the bottom of that,
it's all turning yellow.
1085
01:09:55,128 --> 01:09:58,264
Leaves are dying on it. So I
don't know.
1086
01:09:59,065 --> 01:10:00,567
Stalks are kind of puny.
1087
01:10:02,502 --> 01:10:04,504
This, along with
other unusually extreme droughts
1088
01:10:04,571 --> 01:10:08,475
around the world, has been
described as a mega drought.
1089
01:10:10,977 --> 01:10:13,413
In South America, mega
droughts are affecting
1090
01:10:13,480 --> 01:10:15,382
the world's biggest rainforest.
1091
01:10:16,916 --> 01:10:19,119
SCOTT There was
a 2005 drought in the Amazon
1092
01:10:19,185 --> 01:10:20,887
that broke all the records.
1093
01:10:20,954 --> 01:10:23,056
Hundred year event.
Happened again in 2010!
1094
01:10:23,757 --> 01:10:28,395
In 2010 there was a drought that was
even bigger than the 2005 drought.
1095
01:10:29,229 --> 01:10:30,430
Ah, you do the maths.
1096
01:10:30,497 --> 01:10:32,399
How many 100 year droughts
can you have in ten years?
1097
01:10:35,268 --> 01:10:37,704
The unusual severity
of these droughts could be
1098
01:10:37,771 --> 01:10:39,372
down to another factor.
1099
01:10:41,541 --> 01:10:44,778
As well as less rainfall,
more heat from global warming
1100
01:10:44,844 --> 01:10:46,813
could be drying
everything out even more.
1101
01:10:48,581 --> 01:10:50,950
As the air gets
warmer, it evaporates more water
1102
01:10:51,017 --> 01:10:53,353
It evaporates from the plants,
it evaporates from the soil,
1103
01:10:53,420 --> 01:10:55,689
it evaporates from
irrigation ditches.
1104
01:10:55,755 --> 01:10:58,958
You can see the
plants drying out.
1105
01:11:00,193 --> 01:11:02,529
The consequences
can be catastrophic.
1106
01:11:03,697 --> 01:11:05,398
As drought
increases of course,
1107
01:11:05,465 --> 01:11:08,001
there's less forage
for livestock,
1108
01:11:08,068 --> 01:11:11,237
less water for cities
and for people.
1109
01:11:11,304 --> 01:11:14,341
Uh, in our part of the world,
we're reasonably adapted,
1110
01:11:14,407 --> 01:11:17,077
we have reservoirs and
we have water sources.
1111
01:11:17,143 --> 01:11:19,879
But in uh, the developing
world it can be absolutely
1112
01:11:19,946 --> 01:11:21,715
catastrophic for the
people that live there.
1113
01:11:23,717 --> 01:11:27,687
There are huge swathes of Africa
already incredibly vulnerable
1114
01:11:27,754 --> 01:11:33,460
to drought, areas where millions of
people subsist on a pastoral economy,
1115
01:11:33,526 --> 01:11:36,730
grazing cattle on
very sparse grass.
1116
01:11:40,333 --> 01:11:41,601
2011.
1117
01:11:41,668 --> 01:11:44,938
The worst drought in 60
years devastates East Africa.
1118
01:11:47,540 --> 01:11:50,076
Crops fail across a vast region,
1119
01:11:50,143 --> 01:11:52,112
leading thousands
to flee their homes.
1120
01:11:54,647 --> 01:11:57,884
Drought leads to famine.
1121
01:12:03,590 --> 01:12:05,925
The very severe
drought and the severe weather
1122
01:12:05,992 --> 01:12:08,395
meant that many, many
people starved and many,
1123
01:12:08,461 --> 01:12:11,297
many people were displaced in
search of food as a result
1124
01:12:11,364 --> 01:12:12,732
of that extreme weather.
1125
01:12:16,102 --> 01:12:18,471
One estimate
puts the death toll at
1126
01:12:18,538 --> 01:12:20,006
over a quarter of a million.
1127
01:12:21,441 --> 01:12:23,910
Making the drought one of
the deadliest weather events
1128
01:12:23,977 --> 01:12:25,578
of this decade so far.
1129
01:12:29,149 --> 01:12:32,152
The drought and famine prompts
climate expert Peter Stott
1130
01:12:32,218 --> 01:12:35,355
to investigate if climate change
contributed to the disaster.
1131
01:12:38,425 --> 01:12:43,196
He uses a supercomputer that completes
100 trillion calculations a second,
1132
01:12:43,263 --> 01:12:44,698
to simulate the drought
1133
01:12:47,467 --> 01:12:50,203
and to analyze the factors that
could have been involved.
1134
01:12:55,542 --> 01:12:57,277
The results are bleak.
1135
01:12:59,012 --> 01:13:01,481
What we found with that study
was human induced climate change
1136
01:13:01,548 --> 01:13:04,551
had increased the risk
and therefore had increased
1137
01:13:04,617 --> 01:13:07,554
the vulnerability significantly
of those people uh,
1138
01:13:07,620 --> 01:13:09,122
greater than what
it would have been
1139
01:13:09,189 --> 01:13:10,590
if we had not altered
the climate.
1140
01:13:12,992 --> 01:13:16,363
Climate change
has already made droughts even drier,
1141
01:13:16,429 --> 01:13:17,731
with deadly effect.
1142
01:13:23,703 --> 01:13:27,507
In the future, they'll
get drier still and dustier.
1143
01:13:30,276 --> 01:13:32,245
SCOTT Models
project that actually southern Europe,
1144
01:13:32,312 --> 01:13:34,347
the Mediterranean
region, North Africa,
1145
01:13:34,414 --> 01:13:36,249
they're probably going to
suffer the most from drought.
1146
01:13:36,316 --> 01:13:37,650
Just devastating droughts.
1147
01:13:38,852 --> 01:13:41,054
By mid-century,
southern Europe could face
1148
01:13:41,121 --> 01:13:42,922
more extreme droughts.
1149
01:13:45,291 --> 01:13:47,394
Parts of Italy, along
with Greece and Spain,
1150
01:13:47,460 --> 01:13:49,329
could turn to semi-desert.
1151
01:13:58,538 --> 01:14:01,374
Experts are close to solving
the riddle of how some parts
1152
01:14:01,441 --> 01:14:04,511
of the world can get drier,
while others get wetter.
1153
01:14:06,646 --> 01:14:09,382
But there's an even bigger
mystery in climate science.
1154
01:14:10,316 --> 01:14:14,454
As the world heats up, some
places seem to be cooling down.
1155
01:14:15,755 --> 01:14:17,323
Spring 2013.
1156
01:14:17,390 --> 01:14:20,193
Britain is in the
midst of a big freeze.
1157
01:14:21,394 --> 01:14:23,997
Temperatures are up to
10 degrees below average.
1158
01:14:27,600 --> 01:14:30,270
Usually any snow
has thawed by now…
1159
01:14:30,337 --> 01:14:34,374
Instead, deep snowdrifts
bury much of the country
1160
01:14:37,577 --> 01:14:38,712
MAN Give
it a try then boys.
1161
01:14:39,212 --> 01:14:42,716
BOY Ok daddy,
here we go!
1162
01:14:44,050 --> 01:14:45,885
BRIAN The
month of March in particular
1163
01:14:45,952 --> 01:14:49,489
was extremely cold, and it was I
believe a record in England
1164
01:14:49,556 --> 01:14:52,292
and Wales and we have a
long period for that record.
1165
01:14:52,559 --> 01:14:54,427
And Easter was just terrible.
1166
01:14:54,494 --> 01:14:57,864
So people were freezing.
It was very unusual.
1167
01:14:59,099 --> 01:15:02,369
The holiday weekend
is the coldest for 50 years.
1168
01:15:05,171 --> 01:15:08,375
But not everyone has time to
enjoy the un-seasonal wintry scenes.
1169
01:15:11,511 --> 01:15:14,547
Farmers, like Gareth Wynn
Jones, are hard at work.
1170
01:15:16,383 --> 01:15:20,253
At his farm in Wales, the snow
has come at the worst possible time.
1171
01:15:21,187 --> 01:15:24,891
It's lambing season and
thousands of pregnant sheep
1172
01:15:24,958 --> 01:15:28,294
have been trapped under
a meter of snow for four days.
1173
01:15:32,298 --> 01:15:34,367
This snow
has come very late.
1174
01:15:34,434 --> 01:15:39,839
My father's 77, he's never
seen anything to touch it.
1175
01:15:40,974 --> 01:15:43,443
This time last year, we were
in shorts and T-shirts
1176
01:15:43,510 --> 01:15:47,080
and this year, we're digging
sheep from massive snowdrifts.
1177
01:15:49,382 --> 01:15:52,052
Many of his sheep
succumb to the freezing temperatures.
1178
01:15:52,986 --> 01:15:55,455
It's just frozen
solid you see.
1179
01:15:58,058 --> 01:16:00,427
But then,
his dog picks up a scent.
1180
01:16:06,466 --> 01:16:08,168
Have they found
this one in time?
1181
01:16:16,843 --> 01:16:19,079
She's cold and stiff, but alive.
1182
01:16:20,547 --> 01:16:23,083
Unbelievably.
4-4 days…
1183
01:16:23,149 --> 01:16:28,688
She'll bloody survive now. Job
well done boys. Job well done.
1184
01:16:30,256 --> 01:16:33,193
You've got to think. She's been
cocooned in there for four days.
1185
01:16:33,259 --> 01:16:35,428
You think about it.
1186
01:16:35,495 --> 01:16:38,665
It's being buried alive, isn't
it, it's a tomb, isn't it.
1187
01:16:38,732 --> 01:16:40,667
That's what, that's what
people don't understand.
1188
01:16:41,901 --> 01:16:43,636
The sheep
is still pregnant,
1189
01:16:43,703 --> 01:16:46,439
and shortly gives birth
to a healthy lamb.
1190
01:16:50,043 --> 01:16:52,912
But thousands of other sheep and
lambs across the Welsh valleys
1191
01:16:52,979 --> 01:16:54,514
are not so lucky.
1192
01:16:56,082 --> 01:16:57,050
GARETH
It is a crisis,
1193
01:16:57,117 --> 01:17:00,353
and we just have to cope
with the situation, because,
1194
01:17:00,420 --> 01:17:03,656
one thing I tell you,
these mountains
1195
01:17:03,723 --> 01:17:05,859
will have a lot less
sheep on them,
1196
01:17:05,925 --> 01:17:08,928
and maybe
a lot less farmers as well.
1197
01:17:10,263 --> 01:17:12,032
Over
the last few years,
1198
01:17:12,098 --> 01:17:15,001
Britain has endured some
surprisingly cold winters.
1199
01:17:33,186 --> 01:17:35,021
BRIAN The
expectation a few years ago was,
1200
01:17:35,088 --> 01:17:38,758
"oh everything's going to warm up
so we'd forgotten those cold winters."
1201
01:17:38,825 --> 01:17:40,994
And then it was a bit of a shock
1202
01:17:41,061 --> 01:17:43,563
when we actually got
a really cold winter.
1203
01:17:45,932 --> 01:17:51,137
We got a really cold winter in
2009-10 and then a very cold
1204
01:17:51,204 --> 01:17:55,842
December 2010, sort of record
levels, really intense.
1205
01:17:59,913 --> 01:18:02,082
As temperatures
plummet in the UK,
1206
01:18:02,148 --> 01:18:05,251
much of Europe shivers through
some of its coldest winters.
1207
01:18:05,719 --> 01:18:07,721
MAN First time
in history of Split.
1208
01:18:07,787 --> 01:18:09,689
Snow like you cannot believe.
1209
01:18:14,160 --> 01:18:16,463
In Ukraine this
house, like many others,
1210
01:18:16,529 --> 01:18:18,231
is buried in a snow drift.
1211
01:18:26,239 --> 01:18:27,941
They finally dig their way out.
1212
01:18:29,309 --> 01:18:33,213
An ice storm turns Switzerland
into a glistening fairy tale kingdom.
1213
01:18:36,149 --> 01:18:39,452
Snow even reaches as far
south as the Sahara desert.
1214
01:18:43,056 --> 01:18:44,724
And Israel.
1215
01:18:47,293 --> 01:18:49,195
MAN Shit…he's
done.
1216
01:18:49,562 --> 01:18:52,032
Across the Atlantic,
it's a similar story.
1217
01:18:54,067 --> 01:18:56,069
Frozen roads cause chaos.
1218
01:19:07,547 --> 01:19:11,017
MAN This is so
bad. What the hell?
1219
01:19:24,531 --> 01:19:28,068
The winter of
2013 seems to go on forever.
1220
01:19:29,235 --> 01:19:33,006
WOMAN Oh no, it's
pushing forward. This is crazy.
1221
01:19:33,740 --> 01:19:36,576
In May, strong winds
push a weird creeping tide of
1222
01:19:36,643 --> 01:19:40,714
ice crystals off a frozen lake
toward houses in Minnesota.
1223
01:19:41,247 --> 01:19:42,949
WOMAN Oh my god,
Nicky, look!
1224
01:19:44,651 --> 01:19:47,320
This freak cold
weather leads many to question
1225
01:19:47,387 --> 01:19:49,589
whether the world is
really warming up.
1226
01:19:51,324 --> 01:19:54,094
If the world's getting warmer,
why are these winters getting
1227
01:19:54,160 --> 01:19:55,662
colder and longer?
1228
01:19:59,399 --> 01:20:02,135
The answer may lie
in an unlikely place.
1229
01:20:03,069 --> 01:20:04,704
The rapidly warming Arctic.
1230
01:20:06,406 --> 01:20:09,142
Paradoxically, as
the Arctic heats up,
1231
01:20:09,209 --> 01:20:11,244
it could be cooling
other places down.
1232
01:20:13,580 --> 01:20:16,649
As it warms, it appears to
be disrupting the jet stream,
1233
01:20:16,716 --> 01:20:19,786
a band of fast-flowing air
high in the atmosphere,
1234
01:20:19,853 --> 01:20:22,122
which blows weather
systems around the planet.
1235
01:20:25,058 --> 01:20:28,495
That could be keeping cold air
masses in place for weeks on end.
1236
01:20:33,166 --> 01:20:35,168
Climatologist Heidi
Cullen explains.
1237
01:20:36,236 --> 01:20:38,672
HEIDI The weather
is a lot like traffic in Manhattan.
1238
01:20:38,738 --> 01:20:41,574
When traffic is moving,
everybody is happy.
1239
01:20:41,641 --> 01:20:43,610
Same thing with weather systems.
1240
01:20:43,677 --> 01:20:46,913
It's basically the equivalent of
the jet stream zooming along
1241
01:20:46,980 --> 01:20:50,050
and the weather systems moving
along right with it.
1242
01:20:51,551 --> 01:20:53,620
The jet stream is actually
steering our weather systems
1243
01:20:53,687 --> 01:20:54,954
around the world.
1244
01:20:56,823 --> 01:20:58,858
Like cars
passing an intersection,
1245
01:20:58,925 --> 01:21:01,261
you never have one kind
of weather in one place
1246
01:21:01,327 --> 01:21:02,629
for too long.
1247
01:21:04,964 --> 01:21:09,035
Cold weather quickly moves on,
giving way to warmer weather,
1248
01:21:09,102 --> 01:21:10,503
and then colder weather again.
1249
01:21:12,005 --> 01:21:14,841
HEIDI But if
that Jetstream slows down
1250
01:21:14,908 --> 01:21:17,243
the weather systems
slow down with it.
1251
01:21:20,380 --> 01:21:23,083
We're basically seeing the
equivalent of a traffic jam
1252
01:21:23,149 --> 01:21:24,484
in the atmosphere.
1253
01:21:26,653 --> 01:21:28,621
This is known
as a blocking system.
1254
01:21:30,357 --> 01:21:32,692
And it causes one type
of weather to get stuck
1255
01:21:32,759 --> 01:21:34,828
in one place for a long time.
1256
01:21:36,730 --> 01:21:38,865
That's exactly
what we saw in Europe
1257
01:21:38,932 --> 01:21:40,567
and the US this past winter -
1258
01:21:40,633 --> 01:21:43,203
we had you know blocking
pressure systems
1259
01:21:43,269 --> 01:21:45,872
and you just had cold weather
essentially locked in place
1260
01:21:45,939 --> 01:21:46,940
for months on end.
1261
01:21:48,575 --> 01:21:51,378
When the weather is moving
people can deal with it,
1262
01:21:51,444 --> 01:21:53,713
but just like with
traffic in Manhattan,
1263
01:21:53,780 --> 01:21:56,416
you know when you're in
gridlock, it's miserable.
1264
01:21:57,584 --> 01:21:59,452
Blocking systems,
like traffic lights,
1265
01:21:59,519 --> 01:22:01,321
stop anything from moving on.
1266
01:22:03,990 --> 01:22:07,127
Instead of a brief icy blast
followed by a warmer spell,
1267
01:22:07,193 --> 01:22:09,629
the freezing air
is fixed in place.
1268
01:22:12,899 --> 01:22:15,935
In the future as the Arctic
warms up even faster,
1269
01:22:16,002 --> 01:22:18,571
the jet stream could
get even slower,
1270
01:22:18,638 --> 01:22:21,207
locking in the colder weather.
1271
01:22:24,144 --> 01:22:27,947
Snowstorms could reach places
we'd never expect to turn white.
1272
01:22:33,520 --> 01:22:35,789
Ironically
in a warmer world
1273
01:22:35,855 --> 01:22:37,857
we could actually
see colder winters
1274
01:22:37,924 --> 01:22:39,726
and, and it really
comes down to the fact
1275
01:22:39,793 --> 01:22:43,563
that our climate system
is incredibly complex.
1276
01:22:44,497 --> 01:22:47,534
But these freak cold
winters won't last forever.
1277
01:22:48,902 --> 01:22:50,503
In the long term,
you can think of it as
1278
01:22:50,570 --> 01:22:52,772
the heat wins out over the cold.
1279
01:22:52,839 --> 01:22:55,075
So we're gonna see more,
more heat extremes
1280
01:22:55,141 --> 01:22:56,710
and fewer cold extremes.
1281
01:22:58,645 --> 01:23:01,414
As sea ice in
the Arctic continues to melt,
1282
01:23:01,481 --> 01:23:05,118
the traffic jam in the sky may
have far-reaching repercussions.
1283
01:23:08,321 --> 01:23:10,957
As well as big freezes,
the same blocking systems
1284
01:23:11,024 --> 01:23:13,460
could make all kinds
of weather even worse.
1285
01:23:15,662 --> 01:23:17,897
When hot weather gets
stuck in one place,
1286
01:23:17,964 --> 01:23:21,368
it triggers even hotter heat
waves, and more wildfires.
1287
01:23:23,903 --> 01:23:28,241
When dry weather gets stuck,
droughts get drier and dustier still.
1288
01:23:29,743 --> 01:23:34,280
And when heavy rain gets
stuck, it can cause catastrophic floods.
1289
01:23:40,920 --> 01:23:44,391
Climate change is already making
some kinds of extreme weather worse.
1290
01:23:45,258 --> 01:23:48,294
More blocking systems would
be a brutal double whammy.
1291
01:23:51,798 --> 01:23:54,200
And the knock on effects
of a warmer Arctic
1292
01:23:54,267 --> 01:23:56,870
may even be changing the course
of dangerous hurricanes,
1293
01:23:56,936 --> 01:23:59,239
like Hurricane Sandy.
1294
01:24:00,940 --> 01:24:03,376
Storms that move up
America's east coast,
1295
01:24:03,443 --> 01:24:05,945
normally drift out
harmlessly into the Atlantic,
1296
01:24:06,546 --> 01:24:08,048
but not this time.
1297
01:24:09,115 --> 01:24:10,583
So Sandy took
this very unusual course
1298
01:24:10,650 --> 01:24:12,719
back towards land.
1299
01:24:18,258 --> 01:24:21,728
There's emerging research exploring
whether loss of sea ice in the Arctic
1300
01:24:21,795 --> 01:24:25,865
may make storms taking that path
more frequent in the future.
1301
01:24:28,802 --> 01:24:31,271
Many scientists
already expect climate change
1302
01:24:31,338 --> 01:24:34,908
to cause more powerful
hurricanes and higher storm surges.
1303
01:24:37,777 --> 01:24:41,047
So a damaging shift in
hurricane paths, if confirmed,
1304
01:24:41,114 --> 01:24:43,516
would be a devastating
triple whammy.
1305
01:24:50,490 --> 01:24:55,795
Colder winters, hotter summers,
droughts, floods,
1306
01:24:55,862 --> 01:25:01,034
thunderstorms, wildfires and
hurricanes spiraling out of control.
1307
01:25:03,737 --> 01:25:07,640
The weather is already changing.
And this is only the beginning.
1308
01:25:09,576 --> 01:25:11,478
Just how bad will
the weather get?
1309
01:25:12,379 --> 01:25:14,814
The answer depends on
the amount of carbon dioxide
1310
01:25:14,881 --> 01:25:17,917
and other greenhouse gases,
we release into the air.
1311
01:25:19,619 --> 01:25:21,654
The carbon dioxide
has risen in my lifetime
1312
01:25:21,721 --> 01:25:25,759
from about 330 parts per million
to about 400 parts per million.
1313
01:25:25,825 --> 01:25:30,830
In my children's lifetime,
it's likely to hit 800 parts per million.
1314
01:25:32,132 --> 01:25:33,466
We ain't seen nothin' yet.
1315
01:25:34,834 --> 01:25:37,337
If levels continue
to increase at this rate,
1316
01:25:37,404 --> 01:25:40,040
by the end of the century,
temperatures could rise by
1317
01:25:40,106 --> 01:25:42,542
as much as seven
degrees on average
1318
01:25:42,609 --> 01:25:46,746
and trigger extreme weather
like we've never seen before.
1319
01:25:52,185 --> 01:25:54,888
What we now consider
a severe heat wave
1320
01:25:54,954 --> 01:25:56,222
could be a normal summer.
1321
01:25:57,123 --> 01:26:00,560
Sparking more wildfires on
every populated continent.
1322
01:26:04,097 --> 01:26:07,634
Powerful hurricanes could
stray far from their current territory.
1323
01:26:08,868 --> 01:26:11,204
And their higher storm surges
could inundate the homes
1324
01:26:11,271 --> 01:26:14,040
of 150 million more people.
1325
01:26:16,910 --> 01:26:19,779
SCOTT If we keep
burning fossil fuels, coal, oil,
1326
01:26:19,846 --> 01:26:21,881
natural gas like
there's no tomorrow,
1327
01:26:21,948 --> 01:26:25,652
we're on our way to a situation
where these freak weather events
1328
01:26:25,719 --> 01:26:28,054
we talk about now are going
to be the weather normals
1329
01:26:28,121 --> 01:26:29,356
by the end of the century.
1330
01:26:30,824 --> 01:26:33,760
For storm chasers,
pursuing freak weather is now
1331
01:26:33,827 --> 01:26:35,695
an exhilarating way of life.
1332
01:26:39,399 --> 01:26:42,135
Whoa, man alive!
1333
01:26:42,202 --> 01:26:44,037
They witness
nature at its most extreme.
1334
01:26:45,205 --> 01:26:47,707
MAN Wow!
Are we gonna be ok?
1335
01:26:47,774 --> 01:26:49,075
MAN
Yeah, yeah, fine.
1336
01:26:51,144 --> 01:26:53,646
But even for them,
as the weather changes,
1337
01:26:53,713 --> 01:26:55,715
the future looks frightening.
1338
01:26:58,451 --> 01:26:59,586
GEORGE I
can see what's coming.
1339
01:26:59,652 --> 01:27:02,722
I know our weather is getting
worse. I've seen it.
1340
01:27:02,789 --> 01:27:05,725
I'm anticipating it to
get even worse still.
1341
01:27:09,562 --> 01:27:12,632
And as a storm chaser, someone
who actively pursues these
1342
01:27:12,699 --> 01:27:18,438
things passionately, I want to
be there for the worst of the worst.
1343
01:27:21,341 --> 01:27:24,144
But at the same time, I don't
want to see the death
1344
01:27:24,210 --> 01:27:25,879
and destruction that
goes along with it!
1345
01:27:28,581 --> 01:27:31,084
But many experts
believe it's not yet too late
1346
01:27:31,151 --> 01:27:33,520
to prevent this
climate catastrophe.
1347
01:27:35,155 --> 01:27:37,791
If we switch soon to sources
of power that don't release
1348
01:27:37,857 --> 01:27:42,128
greenhouse gases, we may only
heat the world by two degrees.
1349
01:27:42,996 --> 01:27:44,564
SCOTT So it's
really on us. We have choices.
1350
01:27:44,631 --> 01:27:47,934
We decide the weather of
the future. We decide today.
1351
01:27:49,402 --> 01:27:52,339
Scientists are
confident the weather will get worse.
1352
01:27:53,640 --> 01:27:56,242
How much worse is up to us.
111482
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