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Would you like to inspect the original subtitles? These are the user uploaded subtitles that are being translated: 1 00:00:01,267 --> 00:00:03,470 MAN Oh my god, oh my god. 2 00:00:03,536 --> 00:00:06,806 The world's weather is going wild. 3 00:00:06,873 --> 00:00:10,844 MAN Oh man. Oh my god. 4 00:00:11,177 --> 00:00:13,079 From record floods in India 5 00:00:13,146 --> 00:00:15,048 to devastating drought in America. 6 00:00:16,049 --> 00:00:19,152 It was just a large boiling cloud of… dust. 7 00:00:19,652 --> 00:00:21,488 From deep freezes in Europe 8 00:00:21,554 --> 00:00:23,256 to scorching heat in Australia. 9 00:00:24,257 --> 00:00:26,059 MAN Yeah. He's not looking too well really. 10 00:00:26,126 --> 00:00:28,762 The largest Atlantic hurricane on record… 11 00:00:29,696 --> 00:00:32,098 and the widest tornado ever known. 12 00:00:33,033 --> 00:00:34,567 GEORGE It got so big, so wide. 13 00:00:34,634 --> 00:00:37,037 Even if you tried to flee, you wouldn't have been able to. 14 00:00:40,206 --> 00:00:42,208 Scientists are getting worried. 15 00:00:43,576 --> 00:00:46,079 It's the first time ever we ran out of letters in the alphabet 16 00:00:46,146 --> 00:00:48,114 to name our storms. Unprecedented. 17 00:00:50,817 --> 00:00:51,718 BRIAN People were freezing. 18 00:00:51,785 --> 00:00:54,087 It was very unusual. 19 00:00:55,055 --> 00:00:56,723 But extreme weather has happened in the past. 20 00:00:58,158 --> 00:01:00,593 It was a dreadful terrible climate disaster. 21 00:01:02,962 --> 00:01:07,133 With camera phones, the internet and 24 hour news, 22 00:01:07,200 --> 00:01:10,670 are we simply seeing more wild weather more often? 23 00:01:12,238 --> 00:01:13,940 Or is the weather getting worse? 24 00:01:14,908 --> 00:01:17,077 And if it is, what could be the cause? 25 00:01:24,584 --> 00:01:25,618 In the last ten years, 26 00:01:25,685 --> 00:01:28,221 America has experienced its two most active 27 00:01:28,288 --> 00:01:30,290 tornado seasons on record. 28 00:01:31,524 --> 00:01:33,293 MAN Yep, there goes the roof off the house. 29 00:01:36,262 --> 00:01:39,199 Is tornado alley becoming an even more dangerous place to live? 30 00:01:41,634 --> 00:01:44,437 MAN Oh my gosh, look at that! 31 00:01:45,772 --> 00:01:49,242 Destruction. Holy crap. 32 00:01:51,544 --> 00:01:56,483 May 2013, two monster twisters terrorize Oklahoma. 33 00:02:01,921 --> 00:02:04,224 The nightmare begins on May 20th. 34 00:02:05,658 --> 00:02:08,028 A small tornado touches down in a field. 35 00:02:12,298 --> 00:02:14,100 MAN This is freaking beautiful. 36 00:02:15,368 --> 00:02:18,304 It grows rapidly and moves towards Moore. 37 00:02:20,407 --> 00:02:22,475 A city of over 50,000. 38 00:02:25,578 --> 00:02:28,581 Storm chaser George Kourounis watches the tornado develop 39 00:02:28,648 --> 00:02:30,016 on his radar screen. 40 00:02:31,418 --> 00:02:33,353 And it looks horribly familiar. 41 00:02:33,620 --> 00:02:35,288 GEORGE We couldn't believe what was going on, 42 00:02:35,355 --> 00:02:38,725 we saw this hook echo on the radar, debris ball, 43 00:02:38,792 --> 00:02:42,128 we knew that something very bad was happening in Moore. 44 00:02:42,729 --> 00:02:44,931 And we're thinking oh, no not again. 45 00:02:45,298 --> 00:02:48,335 How can this town possibly get hit one more time? 46 00:02:49,302 --> 00:02:50,537 Oh my god. 47 00:02:51,371 --> 00:02:54,908 In just 15 years, Moore's been hit four times. 48 00:02:56,176 --> 00:02:58,611 MAN Yeah, here comes the debris, we'll get out of here. Hold on. 49 00:02:59,646 --> 00:03:02,582 I can't get my window up. Phil I can't get my window up! 50 00:03:04,851 --> 00:03:06,386 For those on the front line, 51 00:03:06,453 --> 00:03:08,822 it feels like tornadoes are getting worse. 52 00:03:10,957 --> 00:03:12,992 WOMAN There's so much debris in the air. 53 00:03:13,059 --> 00:03:14,928 Fifteen minutes after it touches down, 54 00:03:14,994 --> 00:03:18,498 this monster tornado is already one and a half kilometers wide 55 00:03:18,565 --> 00:03:21,768 with wind speeds up to 320 kilometers per hour. 56 00:03:25,672 --> 00:03:27,273 It reaches the edge of town 57 00:03:27,340 --> 00:03:29,209 and plows through several neighborhoods. 58 00:03:30,777 --> 00:03:34,047 MAN Alright… tearing up the buildings. 59 00:03:37,817 --> 00:03:42,155 It's coming but right at us. Oh my gosh that's violent. 60 00:03:42,222 --> 00:03:43,790 Then, it makes a turn 61 00:03:44,424 --> 00:03:47,093 and heads straight for Briarwood Elementary School. 62 00:03:48,395 --> 00:03:50,130 Jamie Maples is a teacher there. 63 00:03:52,232 --> 00:03:53,800 You could just hear it coming, 64 00:03:53,867 --> 00:03:57,303 like a jet plane was right over your head. 65 00:03:57,737 --> 00:03:59,639 It was just super, super loud. 66 00:04:05,912 --> 00:04:07,681 The tornado intensifies, 67 00:04:07,747 --> 00:04:11,217 until it's one of the most powerful twisters in America's history. 68 00:04:16,289 --> 00:04:18,425 The teachers and children take shelter. 69 00:04:19,693 --> 00:04:24,130 WOMAN Calm down. We're in a brick building, it's ok. 70 00:04:27,233 --> 00:04:28,635 JAMIE Finally the electricity went out 71 00:04:28,702 --> 00:04:31,705 and they realized that this was serious, um, 72 00:04:31,771 --> 00:04:33,440 so they started to get scared. 73 00:04:33,506 --> 00:04:35,108 There was a lot of crying and screaming. 74 00:04:44,551 --> 00:04:46,286 The next thing you knew the roof was gone. 75 00:04:46,586 --> 00:04:48,988 And then that's when everything started to fall. 76 00:04:49,322 --> 00:04:51,491 The walls started to fall and the teachers got trapped 77 00:04:51,558 --> 00:04:53,059 under some beams that fell. 78 00:04:53,827 --> 00:04:55,428 WOMAN Keep your heads down. 79 00:04:56,730 --> 00:04:57,831 And then it finished, 80 00:04:57,897 --> 00:04:59,699 and then when it was over it started raining. 81 00:05:01,634 --> 00:05:02,869 WOMAN Wow. 82 00:05:05,638 --> 00:05:08,475 Oh my god. Oh my god. 83 00:05:09,476 --> 00:05:12,379 Oh my god, oh my god. 84 00:05:20,186 --> 00:05:21,454 Oh my god. 85 00:05:21,988 --> 00:05:24,424 Amazingly, everyone survives. 86 00:05:27,794 --> 00:05:29,596 There were parents coming trying to find kids 87 00:05:29,662 --> 00:05:31,364 and kids screaming and kids crying. 88 00:05:36,970 --> 00:05:40,073 They all just needed to be hugged and told, you know, 89 00:05:40,140 --> 00:05:41,408 we made it. 90 00:05:46,946 --> 00:05:50,283 It was a miracle that we were able to give all the kids back 91 00:05:50,350 --> 00:05:51,818 to their parents that day. 92 00:05:57,791 --> 00:05:59,759 But the tornado's not finished yet. 93 00:06:01,795 --> 00:06:05,031 It strikes another elementary school one and a half kilometers away, 94 00:06:06,232 --> 00:06:07,701 killing seven children. 95 00:06:10,904 --> 00:06:12,339 In 40 minutes of carnage, 96 00:06:12,405 --> 00:06:15,241 the tornado takes a total of 24 lives. 97 00:06:18,745 --> 00:06:20,313 And destroys a town. 98 00:06:23,883 --> 00:06:26,086 MAN It's on the ground, on the ground! there look it's on the ground, 99 00:06:26,152 --> 00:06:27,721 There, there it is, there it is, there it is. 100 00:06:27,787 --> 00:06:31,358 Dangerous tornado. Holy crap. 101 00:06:32,459 --> 00:06:34,227 But the 2013 tornado season 102 00:06:34,294 --> 00:06:35,995 has more horrors in store. 103 00:06:39,199 --> 00:06:42,068 Just over a week later, an even larger twister hits nearby 104 00:06:42,135 --> 00:06:43,636 El Reno, Oklahoma. 105 00:06:45,972 --> 00:06:47,207 MAN Oh, it's a tornado. 106 00:06:47,273 --> 00:06:49,042 It's a tornado, power flashes. 107 00:06:50,977 --> 00:06:53,680 Again, storm chaser George Kourounis is close by. 108 00:06:54,647 --> 00:06:56,116 GEORGE The tornado was so big 109 00:06:56,182 --> 00:06:58,284 it filled the entire windshield. 110 00:06:58,351 --> 00:07:00,420 It wasn't pretty in any way. 111 00:07:00,487 --> 00:07:04,657 It was a dark mean smear, 112 00:07:04,724 --> 00:07:06,826 a smudge across the horizon 113 00:07:06,893 --> 00:07:09,696 that just looked like it meant business. 114 00:07:10,663 --> 00:07:12,065 That was a powerful tornado. 115 00:07:15,935 --> 00:07:20,206 The wind speed reaches a terrifying 475 kilometers per hour. 116 00:07:20,573 --> 00:07:22,575 Among the fastest ever recorded. 117 00:07:23,910 --> 00:07:25,245 MAN Strong tornado. 118 00:07:29,649 --> 00:07:32,018 And even more surprising is its size. 119 00:07:33,286 --> 00:07:35,288 The tornado is rapidly getting bigger. 120 00:07:35,755 --> 00:07:38,258 MAN Uh, to our east, 200 yards to our east. 121 00:07:39,926 --> 00:07:42,529 The twister quickly grows from one and a half 122 00:07:42,595 --> 00:07:44,564 to over four kilometers across. 123 00:07:47,300 --> 00:07:50,036 Large enough to stretch from one end of New York's Central Park 124 00:07:50,103 --> 00:07:51,371 to the other. 125 00:07:52,772 --> 00:07:57,243 MAN Holy shit. Go man, go. Hit the gas. 126 00:07:58,345 --> 00:08:00,480 It plows across interstate 40. 127 00:08:01,481 --> 00:08:03,416 Eight people are killed in their cars, 128 00:08:03,483 --> 00:08:06,219 including three experienced storm chasers. 129 00:08:09,956 --> 00:08:12,025 GEORGE It was the first time that any storm chaser 130 00:08:12,092 --> 00:08:15,028 has ever been killed by the storm they've been chasing. 131 00:08:15,528 --> 00:08:18,965 It got so big, it got so wide so fast. 132 00:08:19,666 --> 00:08:22,869 Even if you tried to flee, you wouldn't have been able to. 133 00:08:24,704 --> 00:08:27,140 This is the widest tornado on record anywhere 134 00:08:27,207 --> 00:08:28,508 in the world. 135 00:08:32,445 --> 00:08:36,082 And other remarkable tornadoes are appearing around the globe. 136 00:08:40,954 --> 00:08:44,424 In Portugal, a raging vortex tears apart a stadium. 137 00:08:53,466 --> 00:08:57,404 And in Bangladesh, a violent twister takes 23 lives as it 138 00:08:57,470 --> 00:08:59,472 rips through hundreds of houses. 139 00:09:02,909 --> 00:09:04,944 Is this just a coincidence? 140 00:09:05,645 --> 00:09:08,348 Or are tornadoes taking a turn for the worse? 141 00:09:09,616 --> 00:09:11,084 MAN Look how big that thing is! 142 00:09:11,685 --> 00:09:14,688 To find out, meteorologists like Josh Whurman 143 00:09:14,754 --> 00:09:17,624 investigate how powerful they were in the past. 144 00:09:21,928 --> 00:09:23,630 The tornado which killed the most people 145 00:09:23,697 --> 00:09:26,666 was way back in 1925, called the tri-state tornado. 146 00:09:28,168 --> 00:09:30,904 America's deadliest tornado leaves the longest trail 147 00:09:30,970 --> 00:09:34,941 of destruction ever known - carving a path through three states. 148 00:09:36,776 --> 00:09:38,878 And kills nearly 700. 149 00:09:42,716 --> 00:09:47,454 The deadliest tornado in history strikes Bangladesh in 1989. 150 00:09:49,089 --> 00:09:51,524 Killing around 1300. 151 00:09:56,363 --> 00:09:59,866 But death tolls aren't an accurate measure of a tornado's power. 152 00:10:01,901 --> 00:10:05,171 Comparing violent tornadoes from different decades 153 00:10:05,238 --> 00:10:06,639 is very, very difficult. 154 00:10:06,706 --> 00:10:09,242 The average number of deaths has been going down. 155 00:10:09,309 --> 00:10:11,945 We think that's because people are more aware of tornadoes, 156 00:10:12,012 --> 00:10:14,547 because we have better warnings and better education. 157 00:10:16,983 --> 00:10:18,618 So it's very hard to compare 158 00:10:18,685 --> 00:10:21,087 tornadoes from past decades to new ones. 159 00:10:22,622 --> 00:10:24,524 Death tolls are falling. 160 00:10:24,591 --> 00:10:27,527 But the number of reported tornadoes is rising. 161 00:10:31,965 --> 00:10:34,768 Records indicate there have been more than three times as many 162 00:10:34,834 --> 00:10:38,204 tornadoes over the last decade than in the fifties. 163 00:10:40,140 --> 00:10:42,876 But even this is not as clear cut as it seems. 164 00:10:45,512 --> 00:10:48,448 In the past, fewer people were looking for tornadoes. 165 00:10:49,716 --> 00:10:52,052 When I started 15 years ago, 166 00:10:52,118 --> 00:10:55,021 there were very few storm chasers, not very many at all, 167 00:10:55,088 --> 00:10:56,690 and everybody knew everybody else. 168 00:10:56,756 --> 00:10:59,125 Oh there it is, it's right there, 169 00:10:59,192 --> 00:11:00,527 quick that large tornado right there. 170 00:11:00,593 --> 00:11:02,629 But now, anyone with a cheap camera 171 00:11:02,696 --> 00:11:04,297 can be a storm chaser. 172 00:11:05,465 --> 00:11:07,133 …I got amazing video. 173 00:11:08,201 --> 00:11:09,869 GEORGE Now, there are more people out there. 174 00:11:09,936 --> 00:11:13,940 And there are times when you're in the middle of nowhere, 175 00:11:14,007 --> 00:11:17,577 on some rural country road and there's traffic jams 176 00:11:17,644 --> 00:11:18,945 with storm chasers. 177 00:11:21,181 --> 00:11:22,582 This is a bad situation here. 178 00:11:23,083 --> 00:11:25,518 We've got large tornado coming behind us and everybody's stuck 179 00:11:25,585 --> 00:11:26,920 on this road right now. 180 00:11:28,288 --> 00:11:30,724 And the more we look, the more we find. 181 00:11:31,825 --> 00:11:37,263 MAN There it is. Oh we're in perfect position. Hahaha… 182 00:11:38,898 --> 00:11:41,501 Most tornadoes simply touch down in a field. 183 00:11:46,639 --> 00:11:49,809 In the past, this tornado might have passed by unseen. 184 00:11:51,478 --> 00:11:54,581 These days, it becomes another statistic. 185 00:11:56,082 --> 00:11:58,218 GEORGE So of course there's going to be more 186 00:11:58,284 --> 00:11:59,652 of these tornadoes reported. 187 00:11:59,719 --> 00:12:02,222 Are there actually more of them happening? 188 00:12:02,288 --> 00:12:04,190 We're not so sure yet. 189 00:12:05,859 --> 00:12:08,728 Bu what experts do know is that the atmospheric 190 00:12:08,795 --> 00:12:11,431 conditions that cause tornadoes are changing. 191 00:12:15,335 --> 00:12:18,672 They know, because of millions of precise measurements 192 00:12:18,738 --> 00:12:22,575 painstakingly collected over the last hundred years. 193 00:12:27,914 --> 00:12:31,451 Twice a day, every day, weather balloons all over the world 194 00:12:31,518 --> 00:12:33,386 take the atmosphere's temperature. 195 00:12:37,090 --> 00:12:39,959 They're part of a vast network monitoring the weather. 196 00:12:42,896 --> 00:12:45,198 Peter Stott is head of climate monitoring 197 00:12:45,265 --> 00:12:47,067 at the Met Office in England. 198 00:12:48,468 --> 00:12:49,469 We have measurements of temperatures 199 00:12:49,536 --> 00:12:52,439 from many, many thousands of weather stations over the land. 200 00:12:52,505 --> 00:12:55,675 And we also have measurements uh, of sea surface temperatures. 201 00:12:55,742 --> 00:12:58,912 And we're also increasingly using satellite data as well. 202 00:12:59,446 --> 00:13:01,848 And what the data reveals is shocking. 203 00:13:03,383 --> 00:13:05,752 Over the last century, the world has heated up 204 00:13:05,819 --> 00:13:08,755 by just under one degree Celsius on average. 205 00:13:10,123 --> 00:13:12,158 This is global warming. 206 00:13:15,929 --> 00:13:17,230 PETER So we have very clear evidence 207 00:13:17,297 --> 00:13:18,365 that the world has warmed. 208 00:13:18,431 --> 00:13:22,268 And with that has come many other changes in weather as well. 209 00:13:23,670 --> 00:13:26,239 The extra heat is transforming the atmosphere. 210 00:13:27,941 --> 00:13:30,377 In the skies above us, the weather is changing. 211 00:13:31,711 --> 00:13:33,246 But is it getting worse? 212 00:13:34,447 --> 00:13:38,084 Climatologist Scott Denning is one of thousands of scientists 213 00:13:38,151 --> 00:13:41,221 trying to figure out exactly how higher temperatures 214 00:13:41,287 --> 00:13:42,722 affect the weather. 215 00:13:44,457 --> 00:13:46,893 The climate system is driven by heat coming in 216 00:13:46,960 --> 00:13:49,529 from the sun, and by heat streaming back out into space. 217 00:13:49,596 --> 00:13:51,798 And the more heat you put into the system, 218 00:13:51,865 --> 00:13:55,168 the, the faster it runs, the harder it runs. 219 00:13:55,235 --> 00:13:56,836 It changes all kinds of things. 220 00:13:56,903 --> 00:13:58,371 It changes temperature, it changes rainfall, 221 00:13:58,438 --> 00:13:59,873 it changes clouds. 222 00:13:59,939 --> 00:14:02,308 The system is a system, it's linked. 223 00:14:03,109 --> 00:14:04,911 But when it comes to tornadoes, 224 00:14:04,978 --> 00:14:06,813 it's… complicated. 225 00:14:07,547 --> 00:14:08,882 MAN Check it out. 226 00:14:08,948 --> 00:14:10,250 JOSH In order to get a strong tornado 227 00:14:10,316 --> 00:14:13,153 from a supercell thunderstorm we need two ingredients. 228 00:14:13,219 --> 00:14:17,791 One is energy, warm moist air to get the thunderstorm going 229 00:14:17,857 --> 00:14:19,125 in the first place. 230 00:14:19,192 --> 00:14:22,696 But that's not enough, we also need rotation, 231 00:14:22,762 --> 00:14:24,898 which is differences in wind speeds at different levels 232 00:14:24,964 --> 00:14:28,568 in the atmosphere, to make that thunderstorm spin. 233 00:14:28,635 --> 00:14:31,604 We need both of those in order to have a rotating supercell 234 00:14:31,671 --> 00:14:33,873 thunderstorm that can make a violent tornado. 235 00:14:35,008 --> 00:14:37,444 As the world warms, these two factors change 236 00:14:37,510 --> 00:14:39,512 in different ways. 237 00:14:39,579 --> 00:14:42,816 More heat could mean bigger thunderstorms. 238 00:14:43,883 --> 00:14:48,521 But at the same time, high altitude winds could be changing, 239 00:14:49,222 --> 00:14:52,025 which may cause less rotation in the atmosphere. 240 00:14:53,226 --> 00:14:56,663 We don't know whether we're getting more tornadoes, 241 00:14:56,730 --> 00:14:59,032 stronger tornadoes or whether there are 242 00:14:59,099 --> 00:15:02,035 any changes in where the tornadoes are occurring. 243 00:15:02,102 --> 00:15:04,137 With global warming, we might have more thunderstorms 244 00:15:04,204 --> 00:15:06,206 in tornado alley, but they might rotate 245 00:15:06,272 --> 00:15:08,074 and make tornadoes less frequently. 246 00:15:08,141 --> 00:15:11,144 We're just gonna have to wait until we get several years 247 00:15:11,211 --> 00:15:14,514 of data to even out the spikes that we see year to year. 248 00:15:15,915 --> 00:15:18,818 Tornadoes may get smaller and rarer. 249 00:15:20,787 --> 00:15:24,324 Or climate change could create the conditions 250 00:15:24,391 --> 00:15:26,760 for a new breed of super twister, 251 00:15:27,594 --> 00:15:29,863 making the monster that struck Moore 252 00:15:29,929 --> 00:15:32,232 a sign of things to come. 253 00:15:35,168 --> 00:15:37,504 While the jury is still out on tornadoes, 254 00:15:38,872 --> 00:15:41,374 if thunderstorms intensify as predicted, 255 00:15:41,441 --> 00:15:44,310 other extreme weather phenomena could get worse: 256 00:15:46,446 --> 00:15:47,881 Including hail. 257 00:15:50,350 --> 00:15:51,851 MAN Oh man. 258 00:15:54,354 --> 00:15:55,989 And it's not just car windshields 259 00:15:56,056 --> 00:15:57,624 that can take a battering. 260 00:15:57,691 --> 00:16:00,260 Hail can ravage vast areas of crops. 261 00:16:02,062 --> 00:16:04,998 Every year, it inflicts over a billion dollars' worth of damage 262 00:16:05,065 --> 00:16:06,733 in America alone. 263 00:16:07,567 --> 00:16:10,804 MAN …very large hail… Holly… 264 00:16:11,538 --> 00:16:13,039 It can even be deadly. 265 00:16:13,673 --> 00:16:15,909 MAN Oh my god, oh my god dude. 266 00:16:15,975 --> 00:16:17,844 My truck is getting hammered. 267 00:16:19,512 --> 00:16:20,947 This is ridiculous. 268 00:16:21,014 --> 00:16:23,917 In 2010, the world's largest recorded hailstone 269 00:16:23,983 --> 00:16:26,386 falls in South Dakota, America. 270 00:16:26,453 --> 00:16:30,256 With a circumference of over 46 centimeters, 271 00:16:30,323 --> 00:16:32,992 it's as big as a large grapefruit. 272 00:16:34,928 --> 00:16:38,264 The last decade has seen a torrent of fatal hailstorms. 273 00:16:41,835 --> 00:16:44,270 Southern China, March 2013. 274 00:16:50,610 --> 00:16:53,713 Severe thunderstorms spawn giant lumps of ice. 275 00:16:56,416 --> 00:16:58,952 Catching residents unaware. 276 00:17:01,721 --> 00:17:03,823 They destroy homes and vehicles. 277 00:17:05,091 --> 00:17:07,360 And kill more than twenty people. 278 00:17:11,498 --> 00:17:15,635 The next month, a freak hailstorm kills three people in Afghanistan. 279 00:17:19,973 --> 00:17:23,176 Could these killer hailstones be a new phenomenon? 280 00:17:27,313 --> 00:17:29,716 Deep in the Himalayas is a clue. 281 00:17:33,653 --> 00:17:37,791 Around the shores of a crater lake hides a nightmarish scene. 282 00:17:40,126 --> 00:17:45,331 Hundreds of skeletons. Men, women and children. 283 00:17:47,200 --> 00:17:50,203 Who, or what, killed them, is a mystery. 284 00:17:52,272 --> 00:17:55,775 A National Geographic expedition sets out to investigate. 285 00:17:56,943 --> 00:17:58,244 As soon as we got up close we could see 286 00:17:58,311 --> 00:18:01,648 that the whole landscape there was littered with bones and skulls 287 00:18:01,715 --> 00:18:03,049 and pieces of flesh. 288 00:18:03,116 --> 00:18:06,486 You could hardly take two steps without stepping on a piece of flesh 289 00:18:06,553 --> 00:18:08,188 or a bone or a skull or something. 290 00:18:10,223 --> 00:18:12,392 For most of the last 50 years or so, 291 00:18:12,459 --> 00:18:14,728 I think most scientists have assumed that they died 292 00:18:14,794 --> 00:18:17,297 in some kind of a landslide or avalanche. 293 00:18:19,032 --> 00:18:22,402 Bone samples reveal these people lived, and died, 294 00:18:22,469 --> 00:18:24,437 over a thousand years ago. 295 00:18:25,772 --> 00:18:28,041 The group was traversing the mountains, 296 00:18:28,108 --> 00:18:29,542 when the unexplained disaster struck. 297 00:18:30,777 --> 00:18:33,880 It's very clear that they didn't die of any disease. 298 00:18:33,947 --> 00:18:35,615 they were not murdered, 299 00:18:35,682 --> 00:18:38,318 they didn't kill themselves or die in a landslide. 300 00:18:40,186 --> 00:18:42,022 Then, on closer inspection, 301 00:18:42,088 --> 00:18:45,492 many of the skulls reveal an even more horrifying demise. 302 00:18:47,093 --> 00:18:50,663 Death from powerful blows to the head by a blunt object. 303 00:18:52,565 --> 00:18:55,301 What the bones reveal is the fractures 304 00:18:55,368 --> 00:18:57,871 of the skull that could have killed them. 305 00:18:57,937 --> 00:19:01,274 That incident must have occurred at the time of death. 306 00:19:02,809 --> 00:19:04,377 It's a complete mystery. 307 00:19:07,947 --> 00:19:10,283 Until investigators hear a local folk song… 308 00:19:11,685 --> 00:19:13,953 a legend about ice falling from the sky. 309 00:19:18,124 --> 00:19:21,561 The song helps the experts reach a shocking conclusion: 310 00:19:22,429 --> 00:19:23,897 With nowhere to hide, 311 00:19:23,963 --> 00:19:28,168 the travelers were brutally struck down by giant hail. 312 00:19:30,103 --> 00:19:33,073 Hailstones big enough to kill seem to have been around 313 00:19:33,139 --> 00:19:34,341 for centuries… 314 00:19:34,908 --> 00:19:36,910 But could they get even bigger? 315 00:19:39,846 --> 00:19:42,349 To find out, meteorologist Kelly Mahoney 316 00:19:42,415 --> 00:19:44,484 has come to an indoor sky diving center. 317 00:19:48,154 --> 00:19:50,924 Its vertical wind tunnel can simulate the conditions 318 00:19:50,990 --> 00:19:54,160 at the heart of a storm, where hail is made. 319 00:19:57,263 --> 00:19:59,532 We're standing here inside an indoor sky diving wind tunnel, 320 00:19:59,599 --> 00:20:03,136 trying to feel what it would be like inside a thunderstorm. 321 00:20:04,738 --> 00:20:06,306 Just like this chamber, 322 00:20:06,373 --> 00:20:09,943 thunderstorms contain powerful vertical winds that blow upwards 323 00:20:10,010 --> 00:20:11,444 called updrafts. 324 00:20:14,748 --> 00:20:18,718 A 100 kilometer per hour updraft can support tennis balls. 325 00:20:20,787 --> 00:20:23,023 So hailstones form when a piece of ice 326 00:20:23,089 --> 00:20:24,624 starts to collect water. 327 00:20:24,958 --> 00:20:27,260 It gets tossed around enough like these balls are. 328 00:20:27,327 --> 00:20:30,063 Starts to collect supercooled water and it grows and it grows 329 00:20:30,130 --> 00:20:32,032 until it becomes damaging. 330 00:20:32,098 --> 00:20:34,534 Like these tennis balls would certainly be 331 00:20:34,601 --> 00:20:36,236 if they were to fall to the ground. 332 00:20:37,337 --> 00:20:39,572 As soon as hailstones grow any heavier, 333 00:20:39,639 --> 00:20:41,007 they fall from the sky. 334 00:20:42,509 --> 00:20:45,478 So in a storm like this, you won't find any hail heavier 335 00:20:45,545 --> 00:20:47,047 than a tennis ball. 336 00:20:49,315 --> 00:20:50,884 Once you start to grow bigger and bigger 337 00:20:50,950 --> 00:20:53,353 hailstones you need stronger and stronger updrafts. 338 00:20:53,653 --> 00:20:56,289 This grapefruit sized hailstone doesn't stand a chance 339 00:20:56,356 --> 00:20:57,957 in just 60 miles per hour. 340 00:20:59,859 --> 00:21:01,895 For grapefruits, you need wind speeds 341 00:21:01,961 --> 00:21:04,230 of almost 200 kilometers per hour. 342 00:21:06,232 --> 00:21:09,302 Storms with updrafts this powerful are very rare, 343 00:21:10,103 --> 00:21:11,304 but that could change. 344 00:21:13,073 --> 00:21:14,974 So as the global temperature and moisture increases, 345 00:21:15,041 --> 00:21:17,143 we like to think we'll have a lot more energy 346 00:21:17,210 --> 00:21:18,545 to fuel thunderstorms. 347 00:21:18,611 --> 00:21:21,548 So if all other things are equal, and you pump up updrafts, 348 00:21:21,614 --> 00:21:24,184 like what's holding up these grapefruits behind us, 349 00:21:24,250 --> 00:21:26,252 you can grow more damaging hailstones potentially 350 00:21:26,319 --> 00:21:28,355 and face a lot more damage. 351 00:21:34,361 --> 00:21:35,695 But storms have an even deadlier weapon 352 00:21:35,762 --> 00:21:37,364 in their arsenal. 353 00:21:40,033 --> 00:21:41,201 Lightning. 354 00:21:46,106 --> 00:21:47,440 JOSH If the climate changes, 355 00:21:47,507 --> 00:21:51,311 we would expect that there would be changes in how much lightning we get. 356 00:21:51,378 --> 00:21:53,113 If we get more deep thunderstorms, 357 00:21:53,179 --> 00:21:55,915 then we expect more lightning strikes. 358 00:21:58,018 --> 00:22:02,455 Yet paradoxically in some places the number of lightning deaths is falling. 359 00:22:05,458 --> 00:22:08,695 In Japan, Europe, North America and Australia, 360 00:22:08,762 --> 00:22:13,099 lightning killed ten times more people in the 1800s, than today. 361 00:22:15,568 --> 00:22:17,437 It might seem that lightning is striking less often, 362 00:22:19,172 --> 00:22:21,908 but there may be another reason for this decline. 363 00:22:26,112 --> 00:22:28,314 People are living more urban lifestyles 364 00:22:28,381 --> 00:22:30,617 and people are getting warnings of thunderstorms, 365 00:22:30,684 --> 00:22:33,353 or people have access to shelter more easily. 366 00:22:33,420 --> 00:22:35,755 So the chance that I'm gonna be out here when a big lightning 367 00:22:35,822 --> 00:22:37,924 strike happens, is pretty low. 368 00:22:39,759 --> 00:22:41,928 As a result, there are fewer deaths from lightning 369 00:22:41,995 --> 00:22:43,797 today in the developed world. 370 00:22:45,598 --> 00:22:48,301 But that doesn't mean lightning is striking less often. 371 00:22:49,969 --> 00:22:52,138 In other more remote parts of the world, 372 00:22:52,205 --> 00:22:53,907 lightning is still a major killer. 373 00:22:55,542 --> 00:22:58,878 Taking 24,000 lives across the world every year. 374 00:22:59,879 --> 00:23:02,882 The most dangerous place to be is in Central Africa. 375 00:23:04,384 --> 00:23:06,152 With thunderstorms all year round, 376 00:23:06,219 --> 00:23:08,488 this is the lightning capital of the world. 377 00:23:12,025 --> 00:23:15,495 In 2011, a colossal storm forms over Uganda. 378 00:23:17,897 --> 00:23:19,065 People run to take shelter. 379 00:23:21,001 --> 00:23:23,603 But for one school class, that isn't enough. 380 00:23:24,471 --> 00:23:27,741 A single powerful bolt strikes their classroom 381 00:23:30,010 --> 00:23:32,312 and kills 19 children. 382 00:23:33,613 --> 00:23:36,916 It's a terrible demonstration of lightning's power. 383 00:23:38,818 --> 00:23:41,888 And if rising global temperatures trigger more lightning, 384 00:23:41,955 --> 00:23:45,191 there could be even more tragedies like this. 385 00:23:46,993 --> 00:23:50,096 The best way to find out if lightning is increasing, 386 00:23:50,163 --> 00:23:51,965 is to count the bolts. 387 00:23:53,600 --> 00:23:55,969 MAN Oh! Fuck yea! 388 00:23:56,036 --> 00:23:59,506 Every second there are around 100 lightning strikes 389 00:23:59,572 --> 00:24:01,474 somewhere in the world. 390 00:24:06,112 --> 00:24:09,916 Some are powerful enough to light a hundred million light bulbs. 391 00:24:14,154 --> 00:24:16,456 So they can be easily detected by satellites. 392 00:24:18,024 --> 00:24:20,460 JOSH It's hard to get measurements everywhere 393 00:24:20,527 --> 00:24:22,796 over the tropical jungles, unless we just fly over them 394 00:24:22,862 --> 00:24:24,864 from way up in space. 395 00:24:25,198 --> 00:24:28,401 And we can see the lightning, we can see the light it gives off, 396 00:24:28,468 --> 00:24:31,504 we can see radio signals it gives off and basically count up 397 00:24:31,571 --> 00:24:33,807 the thousands of lightning strikes that happen 398 00:24:33,873 --> 00:24:35,342 across the globe every day. 399 00:24:36,076 --> 00:24:38,278 Satellites record the number of lightning strikes 400 00:24:38,345 --> 00:24:40,780 during cold years and warm years. 401 00:24:42,415 --> 00:24:45,652 And they found that hot years have more lightning. 402 00:24:48,054 --> 00:24:50,457 Even small changes in temperature can cause more 403 00:24:50,523 --> 00:24:53,727 and deeper thunderstorms which make very much more lightning. 404 00:25:00,433 --> 00:25:03,636 So if the planet continues to warm up as expected 405 00:25:03,703 --> 00:25:06,406 scientists think that by the end of the century, 406 00:25:06,473 --> 00:25:10,744 we could see hundreds of millions more lightning strikes per year. 407 00:25:13,046 --> 00:25:16,416 And with many of these in tropical lightning hotspots, 408 00:25:16,483 --> 00:25:18,084 they're likely to be more deadly. 409 00:25:19,285 --> 00:25:20,954 We have concern that in more remote areas 410 00:25:21,021 --> 00:25:23,656 of the world, particularly farming areas of the world, 411 00:25:23,723 --> 00:25:26,926 where that shelter isn't available or that warnings aren't available, 412 00:25:26,993 --> 00:25:29,162 that increased lightning could result in 413 00:25:29,229 --> 00:25:31,131 more direct lightning deaths. 414 00:25:35,969 --> 00:25:37,971 With global temperatures rising, 415 00:25:38,038 --> 00:25:41,307 experts predict thunderstorms will intensify, 416 00:25:42,008 --> 00:25:43,677 unleashing more hail and lightning 417 00:25:43,743 --> 00:25:45,712 in many parts of the world. 418 00:25:46,946 --> 00:25:48,415 Such as America's North East. 419 00:25:50,550 --> 00:25:54,921 By the late 21st century, it could face more intense storms 420 00:25:54,988 --> 00:25:56,856 than ever witnessed before. 421 00:26:00,694 --> 00:26:04,864 With extreme hail, lightning and winds, 422 00:26:04,931 --> 00:26:09,869 life for over 50 million people could be changed forever. 423 00:26:17,444 --> 00:26:21,081 A small shift in temperature can have a massive effect on storms 424 00:26:21,147 --> 00:26:23,016 and the extreme weather they produce. 425 00:26:26,619 --> 00:26:29,956 But this extra heat has a more direct impact on our lives. 426 00:26:32,759 --> 00:26:35,528 Over the last decade, high temperature records 427 00:26:35,595 --> 00:26:39,032 have been shattered around the world, from Las Vegas… 428 00:26:39,432 --> 00:26:42,302 MAN I've got here an egg and a saucepan which has been heating 429 00:26:42,369 --> 00:26:44,204 up the whole day in the sun. 430 00:26:45,271 --> 00:26:46,506 We'll see what happens. 431 00:26:47,040 --> 00:26:49,576 Literally just ten minutes later, and it's, 432 00:26:49,642 --> 00:26:51,511 it's actually perfectly cooked. 433 00:26:52,312 --> 00:26:53,980 To Siberia. 434 00:26:56,883 --> 00:27:00,120 Inspiring some creative solutions to keeping cool. 435 00:27:04,357 --> 00:27:08,995 In 2013, Australia endures a heat wave of epic proportions, 436 00:27:09,496 --> 00:27:11,097 lasting over two weeks. 437 00:27:11,164 --> 00:27:13,633 So even though we call it ice cream for dogs, 438 00:27:13,700 --> 00:27:14,801 it's actually yogurt. 439 00:27:14,868 --> 00:27:16,603 Yummy. 440 00:27:18,271 --> 00:27:20,607 The Bureau of Meteorology has to redraw 441 00:27:20,674 --> 00:27:22,175 their weather charts to illustrate 442 00:27:22,242 --> 00:27:24,010 the unprecedented temperatures. 443 00:27:26,413 --> 00:27:29,115 Nick Klingaman is an expert on Australia's climate. 444 00:27:30,884 --> 00:27:32,852 NICK They had to add a new color onto the maps 445 00:27:32,919 --> 00:27:36,089 that they produce for the maximum temperatures in Australia every day. 446 00:27:36,156 --> 00:27:38,358 I think the highest it went was 52 Celsius 447 00:27:38,425 --> 00:27:40,627 and uh, it was projected to be above that. 448 00:27:40,694 --> 00:27:43,496 So it was extraordinary levels of heat that we saw in Australia 449 00:27:43,563 --> 00:27:44,764 this, this summer. 450 00:27:45,098 --> 00:27:48,601 2012 is America's hottest year ever known. 451 00:27:52,305 --> 00:27:55,642 2010 brings Russia's hottest summer on record. 452 00:28:01,014 --> 00:28:05,685 And in 2003, a mega heat wave smashes records across Europe. 453 00:28:07,053 --> 00:28:09,189 Killing tens of thousands. 454 00:28:16,029 --> 00:28:18,531 There has been record breaking weather in the past. 455 00:28:20,834 --> 00:28:24,070 In 1976 much of Europe swelters through its hottest summer 456 00:28:24,137 --> 00:28:26,072 since records had begun. 457 00:28:28,808 --> 00:28:32,946 And back in 1933, America's warmest June ever known. 458 00:28:36,649 --> 00:28:39,319 But in the past, there were just as many new records set 459 00:28:39,386 --> 00:28:42,222 for the coldest days, as there were for the hottest ones. 460 00:28:44,657 --> 00:28:46,793 So over time, temperatures balanced out. 461 00:28:49,129 --> 00:28:51,965 Now there are far more hot records set than cold. 462 00:28:54,234 --> 00:28:57,303 Climate expert Radley Horton studies heat waves. 463 00:28:58,972 --> 00:29:01,841 RADLEY If we look at the period from 2000 to 2009, 464 00:29:01,908 --> 00:29:05,145 in the US there were twice as many extreme heat events 465 00:29:05,211 --> 00:29:07,113 as there were extreme cold events. 466 00:29:08,248 --> 00:29:11,518 So we're seeing more records getting broken on the heat side 467 00:29:11,584 --> 00:29:12,819 than on the cold side. 468 00:29:16,189 --> 00:29:18,324 The evidence is indisputable. 469 00:29:20,527 --> 00:29:24,964 The world is getting hotter. The question, is why? 470 00:29:27,233 --> 00:29:30,737 Professor Scott Denning is trying to find the answer, 471 00:29:30,804 --> 00:29:35,742 by using data from a network of super-tall towers that collect 472 00:29:35,809 --> 00:29:37,744 gases from high in the atmosphere. 473 00:29:40,780 --> 00:29:43,249 SCOTT This tower is about uh, 300 meters high, 474 00:29:43,316 --> 00:29:45,318 almost a thousand feet. 475 00:29:47,253 --> 00:29:49,622 And there are these plastic tubes that you can see here 476 00:29:49,689 --> 00:29:53,360 that uh, run all the way up the tower, they're collecting air, 477 00:29:53,426 --> 00:29:55,295 simply, uh, through inlets. 478 00:29:56,062 --> 00:29:58,898 The air is diverted to an instrument at the bottom of the tower, 479 00:29:58,965 --> 00:30:02,102 which precisely measures carbon dioxide levels. 480 00:30:04,371 --> 00:30:06,539 SCOTT These measurements show that just recently 481 00:30:06,606 --> 00:30:11,244 the carbon dioxide has reached 400 parts per million, 482 00:30:11,311 --> 00:30:14,514 400 molecules of carbon dioxide per million molecules of air 483 00:30:14,581 --> 00:30:17,017 a higher level than the carbon dioxide has been 484 00:30:17,083 --> 00:30:18,818 for millions of years. 485 00:30:19,886 --> 00:30:22,655 Most of this extra carbon dioxide comes from 486 00:30:22,722 --> 00:30:26,426 the burning of coal, oil and gas to power our homes, 487 00:30:26,493 --> 00:30:28,428 vehicles and cities. 488 00:30:30,463 --> 00:30:32,732 And now it's heating the planet. 489 00:30:34,534 --> 00:30:37,137 SCOTT Carbon dioxide is a greenhouse gas, 490 00:30:37,203 --> 00:30:40,340 which means that it absorbs heat radiation from the earth. 491 00:30:40,407 --> 00:30:44,244 As the heat radiation is trapped by these molecules, 492 00:30:44,310 --> 00:30:46,212 it can then get re-emitted. 493 00:30:46,279 --> 00:30:48,682 And the part that gets re-emitted downward 494 00:30:48,748 --> 00:30:50,917 will actually warm the surface. 495 00:30:51,284 --> 00:30:55,288 So, carbon dioxide emits heat, heat warms things up, 496 00:30:55,355 --> 00:30:57,624 so if we add a lot of carbon dioxide molecules 497 00:30:57,691 --> 00:31:00,193 to the atmosphere, it'll warm the surface of the earth. 498 00:31:01,394 --> 00:31:04,397 Greenhouse gases like carbon dioxide act like a giant 499 00:31:04,464 --> 00:31:07,567 invisible blanket, holding in the warmth. 500 00:31:08,935 --> 00:31:12,172 Because of this, over the last century the world has got 501 00:31:12,238 --> 00:31:14,507 just under one degree Celsius warmer. 502 00:31:16,676 --> 00:31:20,347 That is why we're seeing more extreme heat waves, more often. 503 00:31:22,315 --> 00:31:24,484 As well as causing deadly temperatures, 504 00:31:24,551 --> 00:31:27,520 heat waves may also cause catastrophic effects 505 00:31:27,587 --> 00:31:28,655 in the countryside. 506 00:31:29,789 --> 00:31:32,959 WOMAN Oh my god, I gotta get out of here. 507 00:31:34,361 --> 00:31:37,897 MAN All the way down the hill, dude, look at this. We gotta go! 508 00:31:39,065 --> 00:31:40,633 Experts are investigating whether 509 00:31:40,700 --> 00:31:43,837 extreme heat is linked to more wildfires. 510 00:31:46,339 --> 00:31:47,640 MAN I've never seen anything like this. 511 00:31:47,707 --> 00:31:51,678 I can't stop shaking. Look at that. All those homes. 512 00:31:52,245 --> 00:31:53,279 Over the last few years, 513 00:31:53,346 --> 00:31:55,782 they've collected valuable evidence from some of America's 514 00:31:55,849 --> 00:31:58,284 most destructive fires ever. 515 00:32:02,255 --> 00:32:03,790 June 2013. 516 00:32:03,857 --> 00:32:06,693 A fire breaks out in Black Forest, Colorado. 517 00:32:09,829 --> 00:32:12,632 Daphne Knight and Ryan Butler are on their way to work 518 00:32:12,699 --> 00:32:14,501 when they see smoke. 519 00:32:14,934 --> 00:32:16,436 On the day it started, everything was fine, 520 00:32:16,503 --> 00:32:18,438 everything was green, you just barely saw 521 00:32:18,505 --> 00:32:20,740 a little plume of smoke off to the side there. 522 00:32:21,107 --> 00:32:22,108 DAPHNE Really we didn't think it was going to be that big, 523 00:32:22,175 --> 00:32:25,945 we were just going up this road and filming the smoke. 524 00:32:28,882 --> 00:32:33,553 RYAN Holy shit, that looks like a damn explosion cloud, ya know? 525 00:32:34,888 --> 00:32:37,824 Fanned by high winds, the fire spreads rapidly through 526 00:32:37,891 --> 00:32:39,793 the hot, dry undergrowth. 527 00:32:42,595 --> 00:32:44,364 Before fire-fighters can control the blaze, 528 00:32:44,431 --> 00:32:46,332 it reaches a homestead. 529 00:32:50,270 --> 00:32:52,505 DAPHNE I'm pretty sure it was the houses burning that, 530 00:32:52,572 --> 00:32:55,775 it just created this big black plume of smoke. 531 00:33:00,046 --> 00:33:00,914 And it went from day to night 532 00:33:00,980 --> 00:33:03,883 for a good couple of hundred yards maybe. 533 00:33:05,452 --> 00:33:07,053 Oh, we're in it. 534 00:33:09,356 --> 00:33:11,224 The fire burns out of control… 535 00:33:14,828 --> 00:33:16,629 …tearing through whole neighborhoods. 536 00:33:29,342 --> 00:33:31,845 Within two days, it's already the most destructive 537 00:33:31,911 --> 00:33:33,880 in Colorado's history. 538 00:33:35,315 --> 00:33:38,151 Nearly 40,000 people are evacuated… 539 00:33:38,218 --> 00:33:40,520 as well as hundreds of animals. 540 00:33:43,857 --> 00:33:45,392 As they try to escape, 541 00:33:45,458 --> 00:33:48,094 two residents burn to death in their garage. 542 00:33:51,064 --> 00:33:52,399 DAPHNE That's where those people lived. 543 00:33:52,465 --> 00:33:53,566 RYAN Aw, jeeze. 544 00:33:53,633 --> 00:33:55,001 DAPHNE The ones that died. 545 00:33:55,068 --> 00:33:56,670 RYAN That's the house? 546 00:33:56,736 --> 00:33:58,104 That's where the people lived that died? 547 00:33:58,171 --> 00:34:01,708 They had come home to get their belongings 'cause they had heard 548 00:34:01,775 --> 00:34:05,011 about the fire, and that was it, they didn't have time to get out 549 00:34:05,078 --> 00:34:06,446 It was in their own driveway. 550 00:34:06,513 --> 00:34:08,648 In the garage they were packing up their stuff. 551 00:34:10,817 --> 00:34:12,619 Yeah, they didn't make it. 552 00:34:16,056 --> 00:34:19,859 There's another one of these cars that just is completely burnt out. 553 00:34:23,697 --> 00:34:25,231 After a week and a half, 554 00:34:25,298 --> 00:34:27,067 the fire is finally contained. 555 00:34:28,868 --> 00:34:31,504 Over 500 houses have been destroyed. 556 00:34:35,742 --> 00:34:38,311 RYAN I think I'm still in a state of shock. 557 00:34:38,378 --> 00:34:41,181 A lot of my friends' homes, all they are is uh, 558 00:34:41,247 --> 00:34:42,716 just chimneys now. 559 00:34:44,150 --> 00:34:47,053 Colorado's three most destructive wildfires 560 00:34:47,120 --> 00:34:49,422 have all burned in the last two years. 561 00:34:51,391 --> 00:34:54,561 Both years also had record-breaking heat waves. 562 00:34:59,833 --> 00:35:02,435 Climate scientist Jeff Lukas is investigating 563 00:35:02,502 --> 00:35:04,070 the link between the two. 564 00:35:05,739 --> 00:35:08,675 He's searching for answers inside trees. 565 00:35:10,076 --> 00:35:13,446 They contain a record of every forest fire over their lifetime. 566 00:35:14,881 --> 00:35:18,385 This cross-section here is from a Ponderosa Pine. 567 00:35:18,451 --> 00:35:21,855 And during its lifetime, uh, fire was a frequent visitor 568 00:35:21,921 --> 00:35:25,992 to that forest, and the tree experienced and recorded 569 00:35:26,059 --> 00:35:30,430 through scarring eight separate wildfires, uh, 570 00:35:30,497 --> 00:35:34,367 each of which we can precisely date uh, to the exact year. 571 00:35:35,602 --> 00:35:38,138 Tree rings also tell him whether each year 572 00:35:38,204 --> 00:35:40,540 was hot and dry or cold and wet. 573 00:35:43,610 --> 00:35:46,646 He finds that the hottest, driest years all coincide 574 00:35:46,713 --> 00:35:48,448 with the most wildfires. 575 00:35:52,018 --> 00:35:55,955 Throughout history, heat and wildfires go hand in hand. 576 00:35:58,792 --> 00:36:01,895 Even though each of these eight years was warmer 577 00:36:01,961 --> 00:36:07,434 than the average, uh, none of these eight years is as warm as 578 00:36:07,500 --> 00:36:09,703 the last few decades we've experienced. 579 00:36:09,769 --> 00:36:12,439 Particularly the last decade, which has been the warmest 580 00:36:12,505 --> 00:36:16,409 in the uh, instrumental record of over a hundred years 581 00:36:16,476 --> 00:36:17,777 in Colorado. 582 00:36:18,978 --> 00:36:21,881 Making the region's forests more vulnerable than ever. 583 00:36:23,583 --> 00:36:25,985 JEFF Every degree of warming will tend to dry out 584 00:36:26,052 --> 00:36:30,256 the soils; will dry out vegetation; will dry dead fuels 585 00:36:30,323 --> 00:36:33,727 and make fires more likely, make their spread more severe 586 00:36:33,793 --> 00:36:35,962 and make their impacts more severe. 587 00:36:39,332 --> 00:36:42,235 Higher temperatures are already taking their toll, 588 00:36:42,302 --> 00:36:43,703 around the world. 589 00:36:45,105 --> 00:36:49,442 In Australia the record-breaking hot summer of 2012 to 2013, 590 00:36:49,509 --> 00:36:52,045 sets off devastating wildfires. 591 00:36:53,680 --> 00:36:56,149 This thirsty koala is caught up in the blaze. 592 00:36:57,417 --> 00:36:59,252 MAN He's not looking too well, really. 593 00:37:00,587 --> 00:37:03,423 Russia's hottest summer on record also triggers 594 00:37:03,490 --> 00:37:05,792 hundreds of wildfires across the country. 595 00:37:08,261 --> 00:37:10,497 Thousands flee from burning villages. 596 00:37:27,447 --> 00:37:29,616 These men escape the inferno. 597 00:37:31,584 --> 00:37:34,220 54 others were not so lucky. 598 00:37:35,155 --> 00:37:38,725 Hotter, drier conditions are causing more wildfires. 599 00:37:41,594 --> 00:37:43,196 As the climate changes, 600 00:37:43,263 --> 00:37:47,133 experts predict more forest fires in the years and decades ahead. 601 00:37:49,002 --> 00:37:50,704 JEFF Unfortunately I think we can expect that 602 00:37:50,770 --> 00:37:53,273 the fires we've been experiencing in the last three years 603 00:37:53,340 --> 00:37:56,643 to be a harbinger of the future. 604 00:37:58,345 --> 00:38:01,781 Research suggests that by 2050, in some areas, 605 00:38:01,848 --> 00:38:05,051 wildfires could be five times more destructive than today. 606 00:38:09,389 --> 00:38:12,359 As temperatures rise and the land heats up and dries, 607 00:38:12,425 --> 00:38:13,860 more forests will burn. 608 00:38:15,662 --> 00:38:18,665 But as the sea warms up, something truly terrifying 609 00:38:18,732 --> 00:38:20,100 could be unleashed. 610 00:38:22,769 --> 00:38:27,640 The biggest, most destructive storms on the planet, hurricanes. 611 00:38:32,412 --> 00:38:34,447 At their worst, they can generate winds 612 00:38:34,514 --> 00:38:38,018 of over 300 kilometers per hour across a vast region 613 00:38:38,084 --> 00:38:39,953 hundreds of kilometers wide. 614 00:38:45,925 --> 00:38:48,728 GEORGE Every single raindrop feels like someone 615 00:38:48,795 --> 00:38:49,796 hitting you with a needle. 616 00:38:49,863 --> 00:38:52,365 Every piece of gravel feels like a bullet, 617 00:38:52,432 --> 00:38:55,268 pieces of metal will fly around like helicopter blades. 618 00:38:55,335 --> 00:38:57,003 You just can't be out in it, it's like being in a blender 619 00:38:57,070 --> 00:38:59,305 for hours and hours and hours. 620 00:39:01,341 --> 00:39:04,678 Hurricanes, also called typhoons and cyclones, 621 00:39:04,744 --> 00:39:08,348 form and grow over oceans, feeding off warm water. 622 00:39:10,417 --> 00:39:13,653 Which is why many scientists fear warmer seas could already 623 00:39:13,720 --> 00:39:17,123 be making these monster storms even more destructive. 624 00:39:18,558 --> 00:39:19,926 JOSH There's pretty good reason to believe 625 00:39:19,993 --> 00:39:24,030 that stronger hurricanes will be more frequent with global warming. 626 00:39:24,097 --> 00:39:27,100 That's mainly because the source of energy for hurricanes 627 00:39:27,167 --> 00:39:29,903 primarily is very warm ocean conditions. 628 00:39:29,969 --> 00:39:33,740 But we still need to learn some important things about 629 00:39:33,807 --> 00:39:37,444 how hurricanes intensify, how they extract their energy 630 00:39:37,510 --> 00:39:38,778 from the ocean. 631 00:39:39,179 --> 00:39:42,182 And we can only do that by getting right up close 632 00:39:42,248 --> 00:39:44,884 to the surface and watching what happens in the winds 633 00:39:44,951 --> 00:39:46,086 in the eye wall. 634 00:39:47,320 --> 00:39:50,323 October 2012, a swirling mass of air 635 00:39:50,390 --> 00:39:53,893 is gathering high above the warm waters off the Nicaraguan coast. 636 00:39:56,796 --> 00:39:58,331 A killer is born. 637 00:39:59,499 --> 00:40:01,801 This is Tropical Storm Sandy. 638 00:40:04,104 --> 00:40:07,941 In its eight day life, Sandy will kill people in eight countries, 639 00:40:08,008 --> 00:40:11,945 and cause over 60 billion dollars' worth of damage. 640 00:40:15,915 --> 00:40:16,916 MAN Wow. 641 00:40:16,983 --> 00:40:20,754 At two days old, Sandy becomes a full-blown hurricane 642 00:40:21,888 --> 00:40:23,990 raging across the Caribbean 643 00:40:33,433 --> 00:40:35,602 Raging across the Caribbean 644 00:40:35,669 --> 00:40:40,540 with nine meter high waves and nearly 200 kilometers per hour winds 645 00:40:40,607 --> 00:40:43,176 killing at least 70 people. 646 00:40:46,046 --> 00:40:50,483 Sandy moves north, passing over an unusually warm stretch of water, 647 00:40:50,550 --> 00:40:53,119 swelling into a superstorm. 648 00:40:56,756 --> 00:41:01,561 A monster hurricane, over 1,500 kilometers across. 649 00:41:02,729 --> 00:41:07,000 It then takes a sharp left turn, directly toward 650 00:41:07,067 --> 00:41:09,336 America's most densely populated coastline. 651 00:41:13,039 --> 00:41:15,175 OBAMA All of us across the country are concerned about 652 00:41:15,241 --> 00:41:17,577 the potential impact of Hurricane Sandy. 653 00:41:17,644 --> 00:41:21,448 Uh, this is a serious and big storm. 654 00:41:22,549 --> 00:41:25,819 Sixty million people brace for the superstorm about 655 00:41:25,885 --> 00:41:27,654 to make landfall in New Jersey. 656 00:41:29,956 --> 00:41:33,526 Climatologist Heidi Cullen can hardly believe its size. 657 00:41:34,694 --> 00:41:36,363 HEIDI This was an enormous storm. 658 00:41:36,429 --> 00:41:41,101 We're talking 900 miles wide, roughly 1500 kilometers wide, 659 00:41:41,167 --> 00:41:42,702 which means that when it made landfall, 660 00:41:42,769 --> 00:41:46,373 it stretched across an enormous swathe of the country. 661 00:41:51,077 --> 00:41:52,846 October 29th. 662 00:41:52,912 --> 00:41:57,617 The largest Atlantic hurricane in history makes landfall in America. 663 00:41:58,118 --> 00:41:59,519 MAN Wow! 664 00:42:11,131 --> 00:42:14,200 Storm chaser George Kourounis is on Rockaway boardwalk 665 00:42:14,267 --> 00:42:17,037 in New York to witness the extraordinary event. 666 00:42:18,471 --> 00:42:21,675 As the storm was intensifying it became 667 00:42:21,741 --> 00:42:24,511 very clear to us that this was no ordinary hurricane, 668 00:42:24,577 --> 00:42:26,746 this was gonna be really, really bad. 669 00:42:30,784 --> 00:42:33,920 There was a mountain of waves that was just being held there 670 00:42:33,987 --> 00:42:35,555 by the wind. 671 00:42:35,622 --> 00:42:37,490 And then eventually it changed direction, 672 00:42:37,557 --> 00:42:42,896 and all that water came flying in, taking all the sand with it, 673 00:42:42,962 --> 00:42:44,597 totally destroying this neighborhood. 674 00:42:46,566 --> 00:42:48,968 New York has weathered hurricanes before, 675 00:42:49,035 --> 00:42:52,372 but never this big… or with such a high storm surge. 676 00:42:54,107 --> 00:42:56,242 The sea level rises up four meters, 677 00:42:56,776 --> 00:42:58,878 nearly a meter higher than ever before. 678 00:43:00,914 --> 00:43:03,350 GEORGE The surf was as violent as I've ever seen 679 00:43:03,416 --> 00:43:05,852 in seventeen hurricanes that I've been in. 680 00:43:06,419 --> 00:43:09,522 All the pieces of the boardwalk got completely ripped up by 681 00:43:09,589 --> 00:43:13,059 the waves, dragged inland, I don't know where they ended up, 682 00:43:13,126 --> 00:43:16,896 but not a single one survived, nothing, none. 683 00:43:16,963 --> 00:43:18,431 Just the concrete. 684 00:43:22,902 --> 00:43:24,838 The Big Apple is not prepared. 685 00:43:28,108 --> 00:43:31,845 John Mattiuzzi captures the chaos in Manhattan on video. 686 00:43:32,212 --> 00:43:33,713 JOHN I started walking down to the water, 687 00:43:35,415 --> 00:43:36,483 the flood was starting to come up. 688 00:43:38,218 --> 00:43:39,352 It got pretty dangerous over here, 689 00:43:39,419 --> 00:43:42,155 because there were these metal sheets that must have weighed like 30 pounds. 690 00:43:42,222 --> 00:43:45,225 They were just woop woop woop! Flipping through the air. 691 00:43:49,429 --> 00:43:52,232 Car alarms, they're singing. 692 00:43:55,335 --> 00:43:57,137 Water levels rise relentlessly, 693 00:43:57,203 --> 00:43:58,538 pouring into buildings. 694 00:44:01,608 --> 00:44:06,913 MAN Oh my god, oh my god. The door break open. 695 00:44:06,980 --> 00:44:09,382 The door just break open. 696 00:44:11,851 --> 00:44:13,153 Oh my god. 697 00:44:14,921 --> 00:44:16,156 The subway floods. 698 00:44:21,594 --> 00:44:24,330 And seawater gushes into electrical substations, 699 00:44:24,397 --> 00:44:27,767 which short circuit and explode. 700 00:44:30,103 --> 00:44:31,838 Then all of a sudden, my camera just lit up. 701 00:44:34,674 --> 00:44:37,043 Then we get another huge flash. A blue blast. 702 00:44:40,146 --> 00:44:42,248 WOMAN I think it just exploded. 703 00:44:43,850 --> 00:44:45,385 As the power fails, 704 00:44:45,452 --> 00:44:47,921 explosions continue to light up the sky. 705 00:44:48,722 --> 00:44:49,889 JOHN And throughout the night, 706 00:44:49,956 --> 00:44:52,559 you'd see these blue explosions in the distance, 707 00:44:52,625 --> 00:44:54,694 which became extremely spooky. 708 00:44:55,428 --> 00:44:58,164 It looked like something out of, you know, Independence Day. 709 00:45:02,369 --> 00:45:04,270 By the next day, the hurricane reaches 710 00:45:04,337 --> 00:45:06,873 over 1100 kilometers inland. 711 00:45:08,141 --> 00:45:10,343 It was so big, it was causing 20 foot waves. 712 00:45:10,410 --> 00:45:13,046 People were surfing on Lake Michigan outside of Chicago 713 00:45:13,113 --> 00:45:14,748 from a storm that was pounding the east coast. 714 00:45:22,756 --> 00:45:25,759 Finally, Hurricane Sandy runs out of steam. 715 00:45:28,628 --> 00:45:31,064 It leaves behind a vast trail of destruction, 716 00:45:33,066 --> 00:45:34,834 and takes over two hundred lives. 717 00:45:39,205 --> 00:45:41,608 In New Jersey and Long Island, entire neighborhoods 718 00:45:41,675 --> 00:45:43,076 have been washed away. 719 00:45:45,412 --> 00:45:47,714 Meteorologists use a scale called the integrated 720 00:45:47,781 --> 00:45:51,217 kinetic energy scale to measure the overall energy of a storm, 721 00:45:51,284 --> 00:45:54,721 And Sandy had the second most ever on that scale. 722 00:45:55,288 --> 00:45:58,058 It had the energy equivalent of two atomic bombs, 723 00:45:58,124 --> 00:45:59,826 that's how powerful it was. 724 00:46:00,894 --> 00:46:03,730 Sandy was dubbed Frankenstorm by the media. 725 00:46:06,466 --> 00:46:08,601 A powerful beast of a hurricane. 726 00:46:09,869 --> 00:46:11,304 Was it a freak of nature? 727 00:46:12,072 --> 00:46:15,542 Or, like Frankenstein, could mankind have brought 728 00:46:15,608 --> 00:46:19,412 this monster to life by changing the climate? 729 00:46:22,048 --> 00:46:24,684 One hurricane is not enough to say for sure. 730 00:46:26,019 --> 00:46:29,222 But experts are also studying other remarkable hurricanes 731 00:46:29,289 --> 00:46:30,724 from the last decade. 732 00:46:31,758 --> 00:46:34,728 2005 produced more Atlantic tropical storms 733 00:46:34,794 --> 00:46:36,296 than any other year on record. 734 00:46:37,797 --> 00:46:40,800 Including America's costliest weather disaster ever, 735 00:46:40,867 --> 00:46:42,969 Hurricane Katrina. 736 00:46:43,436 --> 00:46:46,039 MAN Holy cow. That was the roof! 737 00:46:50,677 --> 00:46:53,980 In 2005, it's the first time ever we ran out 738 00:46:54,047 --> 00:46:56,583 of letters in the alphabet to name our storms. 739 00:46:57,083 --> 00:46:58,918 We actually had to go to the Greek alphabet, 740 00:46:58,985 --> 00:47:00,320 that's how many we had! 741 00:47:00,387 --> 00:47:03,757 And we had seven category three or stronger storms, unprecedented. 742 00:47:04,057 --> 00:47:06,426 2010, second busiest season ever. 743 00:47:08,061 --> 00:47:09,963 And it's not just Atlantic hurricanes 744 00:47:10,030 --> 00:47:11,598 that are behaving strangely. 745 00:47:13,600 --> 00:47:17,170 In the Pacific, the strongest super typhoon ever known to hit 746 00:47:17,237 --> 00:47:19,172 the southern Philippines forms. 747 00:47:26,813 --> 00:47:29,716 And in the Bay of Bengal, three destructive cyclones 748 00:47:29,783 --> 00:47:32,285 make landfall in just two years. 749 00:47:34,154 --> 00:47:36,556 These recent events suggest hurricanes are changing 750 00:47:36,623 --> 00:47:39,159 in frequency, strength and location. 751 00:47:40,126 --> 00:47:42,062 But it seems they are killing less people. 752 00:47:44,898 --> 00:47:47,901 In 1900, a hurricane destroys Galveston, 753 00:47:47,967 --> 00:47:50,637 at the time the biggest city in Texas, 754 00:47:53,239 --> 00:47:55,008 and kills 6000 people. 755 00:47:58,244 --> 00:48:00,880 More than any hurricane in American history. 756 00:48:06,186 --> 00:48:10,390 In 1970, Cyclone Bhola kills over half a million people 757 00:48:10,457 --> 00:48:11,591 in what is now Bangladesh. 758 00:48:14,027 --> 00:48:16,029 The deadliest cyclone ever known. 759 00:48:19,032 --> 00:48:21,201 These hurricanes weren't necessarily more powerful 760 00:48:21,267 --> 00:48:24,237 than today's, the people were less prepared. 761 00:48:26,239 --> 00:48:29,009 JOSH When hurricanes hit 30, 40, 50 years ago, 762 00:48:29,075 --> 00:48:31,544 they pretty much happened by surprise. 763 00:48:32,178 --> 00:48:35,749 People had almost no time to prepare to get to safety. 764 00:48:35,815 --> 00:48:40,286 Forecasting didn't exist. Satellites didn't exist. 765 00:48:40,353 --> 00:48:43,123 Communication was primitive. 766 00:48:45,959 --> 00:48:47,727 MAN (over loud speaker:: The Mayor of the city of New York has ordered 767 00:48:47,794 --> 00:48:50,864 a mandatory evacuation of the island of Broad Channel. 768 00:48:51,598 --> 00:48:54,367 Hurricanes kill fewer people today because we have 769 00:48:54,434 --> 00:48:57,937 better technology, not because they're getting weaker. 770 00:48:59,939 --> 00:49:02,409 JOSH Now, pretty much anywhere in the world, 771 00:49:02,475 --> 00:49:05,612 if a tropical storm is coming towards the coast, 772 00:49:05,679 --> 00:49:09,883 those people know a storm is coming and while still you can 773 00:49:09,949 --> 00:49:13,420 have a huge tragedy, it is not the monumental tragedies 774 00:49:13,486 --> 00:49:14,954 that happened decades ago. 775 00:49:17,090 --> 00:49:19,125 To find out if hurricanes really are changing 776 00:49:19,192 --> 00:49:21,428 in strength… or frequency, 777 00:49:21,494 --> 00:49:23,963 the most reliable data comes from satellites 778 00:49:24,030 --> 00:49:25,065 and weather radars. 779 00:49:27,600 --> 00:49:30,737 They record every hurricane around the world 780 00:49:30,804 --> 00:49:32,539 and can measure their wind speed. 781 00:49:34,741 --> 00:49:37,544 And they seem to be picking up a disturbing trend: 782 00:49:38,945 --> 00:49:41,815 There are more of the most extreme hurricanes. 783 00:49:43,650 --> 00:49:45,719 The strongest tropical cyclones are becoming 784 00:49:45,785 --> 00:49:49,823 more frequent uh, globally it seems based on the limited data 785 00:49:49,889 --> 00:49:51,057 that we have. 786 00:49:51,124 --> 00:49:53,226 It's tricky though because we've only had satellites 787 00:49:53,293 --> 00:49:54,861 for about three decades. 788 00:49:54,928 --> 00:49:57,864 In some parts of the world we have observed an upward trend in 789 00:49:57,931 --> 00:49:59,599 the number of extreme cyclones. 790 00:50:00,233 --> 00:50:02,402 To be certain that the most powerful hurricanes 791 00:50:02,469 --> 00:50:04,671 are striking more often, we need 792 00:50:04,738 --> 00:50:07,107 reliable records over a longer period. 793 00:50:09,275 --> 00:50:11,611 But the recent trend does match what some scientists expect 794 00:50:11,678 --> 00:50:14,080 to happen as the mercury rises. 795 00:50:16,983 --> 00:50:20,620 Warmer oceans provide more fuel for hurricanes. 796 00:50:22,422 --> 00:50:25,025 SCOTT So every half a degree Celsius 797 00:50:25,091 --> 00:50:27,293 or one degree Fahrenheit warming of the ocean, 798 00:50:27,360 --> 00:50:28,695 you're going to increase 799 00:50:28,762 --> 00:50:31,031 the wind speeds in these storms ten to 20 miles per hour, 800 00:50:31,097 --> 00:50:33,800 or 16 to 32 kilometers per hour. 801 00:50:34,134 --> 00:50:37,570 And so Sandy clearly was energized by the warm oceans 802 00:50:37,637 --> 00:50:41,841 and researchers believe that at least one degree Fahrenheit, 803 00:50:41,908 --> 00:50:44,611 or half a degree Celsius of the warming of that water was due 804 00:50:44,678 --> 00:50:47,681 to man-made global warming. So clearly, that had an impact. 805 00:50:50,450 --> 00:50:51,785 But there are other factors 806 00:50:51,851 --> 00:50:53,253 that could actually weaken hurricanes. 807 00:50:54,721 --> 00:50:56,523 RADLEY We can't say for sure that hurricanes are 808 00:50:56,589 --> 00:50:57,857 gonna get stronger because there are other things 809 00:50:57,924 --> 00:50:59,726 that affect hurricanes as well. 810 00:50:59,793 --> 00:51:02,195 Wind shear, differences in wind height throughout the atmosphere 811 00:51:02,262 --> 00:51:05,065 for example, but the balance of evidence suggests that 812 00:51:05,131 --> 00:51:08,335 the strongest storms are gonna get stronger as those ocean 813 00:51:08,401 --> 00:51:09,803 temperatures rise. 814 00:51:12,906 --> 00:51:15,241 Another effect of global warming could make 815 00:51:15,308 --> 00:51:17,177 hurricanes even deadlier. 816 00:51:20,580 --> 00:51:23,950 Melting ice and warming oceans are raising sea levels 817 00:51:24,017 --> 00:51:27,053 and that will mean more devastating storm surges. 818 00:51:32,892 --> 00:51:33,793 Scott Mandia explains. 819 00:51:35,995 --> 00:51:37,864 Well, a storm surge is a like a basketball dunk 820 00:51:37,931 --> 00:51:40,700 in that it doesn't happen very often, but when it does, 821 00:51:40,767 --> 00:51:42,402 it's an extraordinary event. 822 00:51:44,704 --> 00:51:47,741 As powerful winds push seawater toward the coast, 823 00:51:47,807 --> 00:51:49,309 the water piles up. 824 00:51:52,312 --> 00:51:53,713 So you can imagine as that storm gets higher, 825 00:51:53,780 --> 00:51:56,116 it's kind of like somebody jumping up and slam dunking. 826 00:51:56,182 --> 00:51:59,886 That water gets up over the defense …and does its damage. 827 00:52:01,121 --> 00:52:03,356 Only the most powerful storms can push the water 828 00:52:03,423 --> 00:52:05,025 high enough to cause floods. 829 00:52:06,926 --> 00:52:09,329 Just like only the tallest players can reach high enough 830 00:52:09,396 --> 00:52:10,563 to slam dunk. 831 00:52:13,667 --> 00:52:16,970 So now imagine if we raise the basketball floor a foot. 832 00:52:17,037 --> 00:52:18,972 Now the average basketball player can make 833 00:52:19,039 --> 00:52:21,741 a dunk where before only the tallest ones could. 834 00:52:22,409 --> 00:52:23,843 That's what's going on in the oceans right now. 835 00:52:23,910 --> 00:52:26,746 Humans are warming the planet, we're making the water expand, 836 00:52:26,813 --> 00:52:28,081 we're melting a lot of ice. 837 00:52:28,148 --> 00:52:29,816 The ocean's physically one foot higher. 838 00:52:31,017 --> 00:52:33,019 This higher sea level means that less extreme storms 839 00:52:33,086 --> 00:52:34,988 can now cause flooding. 840 00:52:37,290 --> 00:52:39,292 So now average storms are causing surges 841 00:52:39,359 --> 00:52:41,361 that inundate our coastal defenses. 842 00:52:41,428 --> 00:52:43,863 So we have worse damage from the extreme storms, 843 00:52:43,930 --> 00:52:46,466 and damage we never had before from what you call the average 844 00:52:46,533 --> 00:52:49,602 storm, like an average player normally can't dunk, now he can. 845 00:52:51,638 --> 00:52:52,706 Nice one. 846 00:52:56,509 --> 00:52:59,379 Storm surges are most damaging to places that aren't 847 00:52:59,446 --> 00:53:00,647 prepared for them. 848 00:53:02,082 --> 00:53:05,085 And as the climate changes, cyclones may start appearing 849 00:53:05,151 --> 00:53:08,154 in parts of the world they've never been seen before. 850 00:53:09,923 --> 00:53:12,459 Hurricanes, particularly the strongest hurricanes, 851 00:53:12,525 --> 00:53:16,196 are confined to very specific parts of the world. 852 00:53:16,262 --> 00:53:19,199 And that's because there are certain conditions 853 00:53:19,265 --> 00:53:22,035 which enable them to form and become quite violent. 854 00:53:23,203 --> 00:53:27,574 In a globally warmed environment those areas might change. 855 00:53:28,074 --> 00:53:29,509 We might get new hurricanes 856 00:53:29,576 --> 00:53:30,877 where they've never happened before. 857 00:53:30,944 --> 00:53:33,580 And we might have some areas that have hurricanes now, 858 00:53:33,646 --> 00:53:36,016 which don't have them with global climate change. 859 00:53:38,018 --> 00:53:40,320 In fact, this may have already happened. 860 00:53:42,389 --> 00:53:45,525 Hurricanes had never been known to form in the South Atlantic. 861 00:53:46,860 --> 00:53:50,463 Never, until 2004 when a hurricane appears out 862 00:53:50,530 --> 00:53:53,566 of the blue and slams into South America. 863 00:53:58,104 --> 00:53:59,973 JOSH Several years ago, a hurricane formed 864 00:54:00,040 --> 00:54:05,345 in the South Atlantic, much to our surprise, and hit Brazil. 865 00:54:06,079 --> 00:54:10,283 MAN 866 00:54:18,358 --> 00:54:21,594 Fortunately no densely populated cities are hit, 867 00:54:23,830 --> 00:54:25,765 so the death toll is just four. 868 00:54:27,934 --> 00:54:30,670 Next time, Brazil might not be so lucky. 869 00:54:32,405 --> 00:54:34,974 JOSH One of the biggest risks with climate change 870 00:54:35,041 --> 00:54:38,912 is that it can bring violent weather to places 871 00:54:38,978 --> 00:54:42,816 which aren't experienced, who aren't hardened, 872 00:54:42,882 --> 00:54:46,519 who aren't practiced to defend themselves against that type 873 00:54:46,586 --> 00:54:47,854 of violent weather. 874 00:54:47,921 --> 00:54:50,924 In Brazil the hurricane that hit was fairly close 875 00:54:50,990 --> 00:54:54,761 to Rio de Janeiro which probably doesn't know what to do 876 00:54:54,828 --> 00:54:56,463 if a hurricane comes. 877 00:54:56,529 --> 00:54:58,965 Those areas could be particularly at risk. 878 00:55:05,305 --> 00:55:09,342 In the future, Rio could be right in the firing line. 879 00:55:10,610 --> 00:55:13,646 Trees uprooted, black-outs across the city, 880 00:55:13,713 --> 00:55:15,382 and homes destroyed. 881 00:55:18,218 --> 00:55:20,186 With a population of six million 882 00:55:20,253 --> 00:55:22,789 and over a million in poorly constructed favelas, 883 00:55:22,856 --> 00:55:25,592 a direct hit would be a catastrophe. 884 00:55:31,831 --> 00:55:34,000 Hurricanes may dominate the headlines, 885 00:55:37,637 --> 00:55:39,906 but the weather that has the biggest impact on lives 886 00:55:39,973 --> 00:55:41,775 is far more ordinary: 887 00:55:44,110 --> 00:55:45,345 Rain. 888 00:55:46,980 --> 00:55:50,183 Too much rain can have extraordinary consequences… 889 00:55:56,956 --> 00:55:59,359 bringing flash floods and mudslides. 890 00:56:03,396 --> 00:56:05,665 Destruction on a grand scale. 891 00:56:08,201 --> 00:56:10,837 More rain would affect people all over the planet. 892 00:56:12,972 --> 00:56:16,376 So scientists are searching for changes in rainfall patterns. 893 00:56:18,411 --> 00:56:21,014 They're monitoring the world's biggest drenching: 894 00:56:21,881 --> 00:56:23,817 The yearly monsoon in India. 895 00:56:29,789 --> 00:56:32,392 Trillions of gallons of water fall from the sky… 896 00:56:35,228 --> 00:56:39,032 Transforming the landscape from brown and dry… 897 00:56:41,134 --> 00:56:42,769 To green and fertile. 898 00:56:46,940 --> 00:56:49,776 Professor Sir Brian Hoskins is one of the world's leading 899 00:56:49,843 --> 00:56:51,878 experts on the Indian monsoon. 900 00:56:54,047 --> 00:56:57,183 BRIAN The monsoon in India is just an amazing thing. 901 00:56:57,250 --> 00:57:01,755 It happens every year with great regularity. 902 00:57:02,222 --> 00:57:05,725 And it produces all water that can give them their agriculture 903 00:57:05,792 --> 00:57:07,060 and their whole life. 904 00:57:09,796 --> 00:57:13,566 This densely populated country has over a billion people. 905 00:57:15,935 --> 00:57:19,372 And they all rely on the monsoon to provide food and water. 906 00:57:21,474 --> 00:57:23,610 But India has a love-hate relationship 907 00:57:23,677 --> 00:57:25,078 with its rainy season. 908 00:57:27,347 --> 00:57:31,785 As well as sustaining life, it can also take it. 909 00:57:34,287 --> 00:57:35,955 June 2013. 910 00:57:38,058 --> 00:57:40,393 Hundreds of thousands of people make their annual pilgrimage up 911 00:57:40,460 --> 00:57:42,595 these narrow Himalayan valleys. 912 00:57:45,565 --> 00:57:49,402 They plan to return before the monsoon arrives here in July. 913 00:57:55,909 --> 00:57:57,844 But this year is different. 914 00:58:00,080 --> 00:58:02,315 The monsoon was running several weeks ahead of schedule 915 00:58:02,382 --> 00:58:04,084 and people likely were not prepared 916 00:58:04,150 --> 00:58:07,187 to have such intense rainfall so early in the monsoon season. 917 00:58:08,254 --> 00:58:10,490 The rainfall is three times heavier than normal 918 00:58:10,557 --> 00:58:11,758 for this region. 919 00:58:13,159 --> 00:58:15,195 The rain rushes down the steep slopes, 920 00:58:15,261 --> 00:58:17,530 causing the river to rapidly overflow. 921 00:58:20,767 --> 00:58:24,070 And stranding thousands of pilgrims in mountain villages. 922 00:58:27,140 --> 00:58:30,143 Local villager Kundilal witnesses the chaos. 923 00:58:33,146 --> 00:58:35,782 - The river started turning ferocious at around- 00. 924 00:58:38,885 --> 00:58:40,687 I saw everything. 925 00:58:41,287 --> 00:58:43,156 I was looking down and I saw everything 926 00:58:43,223 --> 00:58:44,891 being washed away by the river. 927 00:58:52,232 --> 00:58:54,734 All buildings were drowned by the might of the river. 928 00:58:58,672 --> 00:59:01,074 The river swells to a dangerous level. 929 00:59:03,109 --> 00:59:06,246 Submerging or sweeping away hundreds of houses. 930 00:59:13,787 --> 00:59:16,189 KUNDILAL Now where the river flows is where all the houses 931 00:59:16,256 --> 00:59:17,357 used to be. 932 00:59:19,225 --> 00:59:21,728 Further downstream, Suraj Singh is working 933 00:59:21,795 --> 00:59:23,763 in a restaurant when the flood hits. 934 00:59:25,999 --> 00:59:27,667 SURAJ There was a massive amount of water 935 00:59:27,734 --> 00:59:29,302 so we had to quickly escape. 936 00:59:31,705 --> 00:59:33,740 We ran up a mountain and stood on a rock. 937 00:59:35,442 --> 00:59:38,111 When we looked down, it was a horrific sight. 938 00:59:50,623 --> 00:59:53,993 Out of seven of us who worked in that restaurant, 939 00:59:54,060 --> 00:59:56,296 four of us had drowned there and then. 940 00:59:59,766 --> 01:00:01,468 The river sweeps hundreds of people 941 01:00:01,534 --> 01:00:04,037 to their death, many of them pilgrims. 942 01:00:05,071 --> 01:00:06,840 SURAJ Maybe 2% or 3% of them managed 943 01:00:06,906 --> 01:00:10,410 to save themselves, but there wasn't much hope of survival. 944 01:00:17,650 --> 01:00:19,486 By the time the flood subsides, 945 01:00:19,552 --> 01:00:22,188 over 5,000 lives are lost. 946 01:00:27,127 --> 01:00:28,895 SURAJ I had no hope of coming out alive. 947 01:00:29,396 --> 01:00:31,531 I kept thinking I'd never see my children again. 948 01:00:34,234 --> 01:00:38,738 Even now I'm home, I sometimes break down into tears on my own. 949 01:00:42,475 --> 01:00:45,412 We never thought such a disaster could happen here. 950 01:00:45,478 --> 01:00:50,383 I am 61 years old and never have I seen such fury of nature. 951 01:00:53,319 --> 01:00:55,622 The 2013 monsoon floods are the deadliest 952 01:00:55,689 --> 01:00:57,424 in India's history. 953 01:01:01,561 --> 01:01:04,464 Over the last decade, destructive flash floods 954 01:01:04,531 --> 01:01:06,099 have struck around the world 955 01:01:07,967 --> 01:01:09,269 from Canada 956 01:01:09,969 --> 01:01:14,007 MAN Oh my god. Oh that's destroyed the back of his car. 957 01:01:15,041 --> 01:01:16,209 To Mauritius. 958 01:01:16,276 --> 01:01:17,677 MAN Hey, be careful! 959 01:01:18,445 --> 01:01:19,713 To Australia. 960 01:01:20,246 --> 01:01:23,083 Here the most destructive floods in the country's history cause 961 01:01:23,149 --> 01:01:25,852 over 20 billion dollars' worth of damage. 962 01:01:27,420 --> 01:01:32,292 MAN Oh my goodness. There's another one. Oh no. 963 01:01:33,026 --> 01:01:36,896 The rest of them are gone. Oh that is horrible. 964 01:01:41,101 --> 01:01:43,503 A canoeist manages to see the funny side… 965 01:01:45,438 --> 01:01:48,341 When a drive through becomes a paddle through. 966 01:01:48,408 --> 01:01:49,976 MAN Would you like fries with that? 967 01:01:51,044 --> 01:01:52,645 Yeah all right I'll have a hamburger. 968 01:01:55,015 --> 01:01:57,684 In Russia, water sports enthusiasts make the best 969 01:01:57,751 --> 01:02:00,387 of the heaviest rain there in living memory. 970 01:02:10,196 --> 01:02:12,198 It seems nowhere is immune. 971 01:02:13,233 --> 01:02:17,470 Even in Saudi Arabia, almost twice the average annual rainfall 972 01:02:17,537 --> 01:02:19,239 drops in just a few hours… 973 01:02:22,208 --> 01:02:23,910 taking many by surprise. 974 01:02:26,446 --> 01:02:29,616 And in Brazil, flash floods strike so quickly that people 975 01:02:29,683 --> 01:02:32,519 don't even have time to escape their houses before they're 976 01:02:32,585 --> 01:02:34,554 surrounded by raging water. 977 01:02:47,300 --> 01:02:49,436 A daring leap saves this woman's life. 978 01:02:51,604 --> 01:02:53,406 But she loses her dog to the deluge. 979 01:02:56,810 --> 01:03:00,113 700 people die in Brazil's worst ever natural disaster. 980 01:03:02,982 --> 01:03:05,285 In some parts of the world, it seems clear that floods 981 01:03:05,352 --> 01:03:07,620 are killing more than ever before. 982 01:03:11,691 --> 01:03:15,095 There's a better way to discover if the heating up of the Earth 983 01:03:15,161 --> 01:03:17,397 is contributing to more destructive floods. 984 01:03:19,132 --> 01:03:21,868 By measuring how much water vapor is in the air. 985 01:03:23,536 --> 01:03:25,238 PETER There's 3% or 4% more moisture 986 01:03:25,305 --> 01:03:28,174 in the atmosphere globally than there was in the 1970s. 987 01:03:28,241 --> 01:03:30,810 And this is an entirely expected consequence of a warming 988 01:03:30,877 --> 01:03:34,681 atmosphere that evaporates more water off the oceans 989 01:03:34,748 --> 01:03:37,417 and leads to more atmospheric moisture. 990 01:03:40,053 --> 01:03:43,156 And with more water in the air, when storms develop, 991 01:03:43,223 --> 01:03:44,891 there's extra rain to fall. 992 01:03:48,128 --> 01:03:50,397 PETER With that has come changing rainfall patterns. 993 01:03:50,463 --> 01:03:54,367 So if you look globally, there's a clear tendency for a greater 994 01:03:54,434 --> 01:03:56,569 intensity of heavy rainfall events. 995 01:04:05,545 --> 01:04:08,081 In the future, more moisture in the air could mean 996 01:04:08,148 --> 01:04:10,884 even heavier rain and more intense flooding. 997 01:04:12,285 --> 01:04:14,487 Particularly in tropical regions like India. 998 01:04:18,792 --> 01:04:22,962 Here, the monsoon could drop up to 15% more water than today. 999 01:04:26,099 --> 01:04:28,501 Raging floods could overwhelm the country. 1000 01:04:36,509 --> 01:04:38,044 So we're getting more rain. 1001 01:04:39,679 --> 01:04:42,982 But weather experts are struggling to solve a cruel enigma. 1002 01:04:45,719 --> 01:04:49,222 As much of the world gets wetter, other parts get drier. 1003 01:04:49,889 --> 01:04:51,057 Why? 1004 01:04:52,359 --> 01:04:53,460 In the sub tropics, 1005 01:04:53,526 --> 01:04:54,961 think the desert parts of the world, 1006 01:04:55,028 --> 01:04:56,329 there's actually less rainfall. 1007 01:04:56,396 --> 01:04:59,466 The parts of the world that are already very dry 1008 01:04:59,532 --> 01:05:00,700 tend to get drier. 1009 01:05:02,335 --> 01:05:05,238 And possibly the only thing worse than too much rain, 1010 01:05:05,305 --> 01:05:06,573 is not enough. 1011 01:05:07,474 --> 01:05:08,641 Drought. 1012 01:05:09,275 --> 01:05:12,445 A shortage of water creates a big problem. 1013 01:05:13,913 --> 01:05:17,751 SCOTT As the vegetation becomes stressed in a drought, 1014 01:05:17,817 --> 01:05:20,420 the roots die off. 1015 01:05:21,254 --> 01:05:25,125 The soil is then loose um, and the wind can come along 1016 01:05:25,191 --> 01:05:27,761 and lift little grains of soil up. 1017 01:05:30,163 --> 01:05:33,867 And you get these rolling billows of dust that blow 1018 01:05:33,933 --> 01:05:35,301 across the landscape. 1019 01:05:35,635 --> 01:05:37,804 When these build up, they can grow into one 1020 01:05:37,871 --> 01:05:42,976 of nature's most spectacular phenomena: A dust storm. 1021 01:05:45,879 --> 01:05:47,380 Phoenix, Arizona. 1022 01:05:47,447 --> 01:05:49,282 July 5th, 2011. 1023 01:05:51,851 --> 01:05:54,688 After nearly 14 consecutive dry years 1024 01:05:56,189 --> 01:05:57,357 a strong wind picks up 1025 01:05:57,424 --> 01:06:00,160 vast amounts of loose parched soil. 1026 01:06:02,595 --> 01:06:06,399 MAN Holy Cow! Massive dust storm coming towards us! 1027 01:06:07,701 --> 01:06:09,803 Arizona has dust storms every year, 1028 01:06:10,570 --> 01:06:12,238 but this one is different. 1029 01:06:13,873 --> 01:06:18,511 People stop and stare at the 160 kilometer wide wave of dirt. 1030 01:06:20,080 --> 01:06:22,248 MAN Seriously Wendy, get out of the pool. 1031 01:06:23,116 --> 01:06:24,451 The biggest in a generation. 1032 01:06:24,517 --> 01:06:26,252 MOTHER What the hell is that? 1033 01:06:26,319 --> 01:06:30,690 CHILD Mom I'm scared! Daddy! Oh my god! 1034 01:06:30,757 --> 01:06:32,325 MOTHER It's alright guys. 1035 01:06:36,196 --> 01:06:39,399 John Melton is new to Arizona and its weather. 1036 01:06:40,700 --> 01:06:41,668 As I walking around to the truck, 1037 01:06:41,735 --> 01:06:44,037 I opened the door and happened to look up 1038 01:06:45,872 --> 01:06:49,943 and see a gigantic dust cloud come through the neighborhoods there. 1039 01:06:52,212 --> 01:06:54,114 I could taste the grit in the air. 1040 01:06:54,180 --> 01:06:57,584 It was just a large boiling cloud of dust. 1041 01:06:59,753 --> 01:07:03,490 The tidal wave of grit grows over a kilometer and a half high 1042 01:07:03,556 --> 01:07:05,091 and swallows Phoenix whole. 1043 01:07:13,700 --> 01:07:16,002 As the dust wall passes overhead, 1044 01:07:16,069 --> 01:07:18,505 the entire city plunges into darkness. 1045 01:07:20,306 --> 01:07:22,442 MAN It's gone from day to night! 1046 01:07:23,576 --> 01:07:25,679 The blanket of dust blocks out the sun. 1047 01:07:26,813 --> 01:07:28,782 As I turned onto the main road here, 1048 01:07:28,848 --> 01:07:30,383 I was just engulfed in the storm. 1049 01:07:32,886 --> 01:07:34,754 This is a very regular route that I drive, 1050 01:07:36,423 --> 01:07:39,259 uh, it just felt so alien and unfamiliar. 1051 01:07:41,528 --> 01:07:43,063 Almost unrecognizable. 1052 01:07:45,365 --> 01:07:49,903 It's just a crazy pitch-black dust storm. 1053 01:07:50,770 --> 01:07:52,472 Can't see more than ten feet. 1054 01:07:53,807 --> 01:07:57,043 It's like some kind of apocalypse movie, I swear. 1055 01:07:59,913 --> 01:08:02,315 The spectacle is all over in 40 minutes. 1056 01:08:04,351 --> 01:08:06,519 But the biggest dust storm in decades 1057 01:08:06,586 --> 01:08:09,689 has left Phoenix filthy and stunned. 1058 01:08:12,459 --> 01:08:14,894 The usually silent, invisible drought 1059 01:08:14,961 --> 01:08:16,529 has made its presence felt. 1060 01:08:19,566 --> 01:08:23,303 But a lack of water can have even more terrible consequences. 1061 01:08:28,408 --> 01:08:31,778 America knows the perils of drought from bitter experience. 1062 01:08:34,314 --> 01:08:36,116 SCOTT There was a prolonged drought 1063 01:08:36,182 --> 01:08:38,685 in the central part of the United States 1064 01:08:38,752 --> 01:08:41,888 which is historically referred to as the dust bowl. 1065 01:08:47,861 --> 01:08:51,064 In the 1930s, over 70% of the topsoil 1066 01:08:51,131 --> 01:08:54,634 was blown away across a vast swathe of the United States. 1067 01:08:57,070 --> 01:08:58,304 Destroying crops, 1068 01:08:59,839 --> 01:09:01,574 causing livestock to starve 1069 01:09:03,143 --> 01:09:06,212 and triggering one of the biggest migrations in America's history. 1070 01:09:08,815 --> 01:09:12,585 Millions left their homes and farms in search of work and food. 1071 01:09:15,155 --> 01:09:18,525 SCOTT There are these classic photo montages of that period 1072 01:09:18,591 --> 01:09:21,327 with farms just being buried in dust. 1073 01:09:22,896 --> 01:09:25,832 It was a dreadful, terrible climate disaster. 1074 01:09:27,033 --> 01:09:29,269 Yet the recent drought in America's southwest 1075 01:09:29,336 --> 01:09:30,870 has been even worse. 1076 01:09:31,471 --> 01:09:33,273 Particularly parts of Texas, and, 1077 01:09:33,340 --> 01:09:35,575 and Kansas and Oklahoma uh, 1078 01:09:35,642 --> 01:09:37,344 have actually been more impacted 1079 01:09:37,410 --> 01:09:40,113 in the, in the 21st century than they were in the 1930s. 1080 01:09:41,448 --> 01:09:44,317 Some estimates put the cost of the North American drought 1081 01:09:44,384 --> 01:09:46,286 at over 100 billion dollars. 1082 01:09:47,987 --> 01:09:49,155 MAN I just looked at my thermometer and got 1083 01:09:49,222 --> 01:09:50,757 105 in the shade. 1084 01:09:51,825 --> 01:09:53,993 Look at the bottom of that, it's all turning yellow. 1085 01:09:55,128 --> 01:09:58,264 Leaves are dying on it. So I don't know. 1086 01:09:59,065 --> 01:10:00,567 Stalks are kind of puny. 1087 01:10:02,502 --> 01:10:04,504 This, along with other unusually extreme droughts 1088 01:10:04,571 --> 01:10:08,475 around the world, has been described as a mega drought. 1089 01:10:10,977 --> 01:10:13,413 In South America, mega droughts are affecting 1090 01:10:13,480 --> 01:10:15,382 the world's biggest rainforest. 1091 01:10:16,916 --> 01:10:19,119 SCOTT There was a 2005 drought in the Amazon 1092 01:10:19,185 --> 01:10:20,887 that broke all the records. 1093 01:10:20,954 --> 01:10:23,056 Hundred year event. Happened again in 2010! 1094 01:10:23,757 --> 01:10:28,395 In 2010 there was a drought that was even bigger than the 2005 drought. 1095 01:10:29,229 --> 01:10:30,430 Ah, you do the maths. 1096 01:10:30,497 --> 01:10:32,399 How many 100 year droughts can you have in ten years? 1097 01:10:35,268 --> 01:10:37,704 The unusual severity of these droughts could be 1098 01:10:37,771 --> 01:10:39,372 down to another factor. 1099 01:10:41,541 --> 01:10:44,778 As well as less rainfall, more heat from global warming 1100 01:10:44,844 --> 01:10:46,813 could be drying everything out even more. 1101 01:10:48,581 --> 01:10:50,950 As the air gets warmer, it evaporates more water 1102 01:10:51,017 --> 01:10:53,353 It evaporates from the plants, it evaporates from the soil, 1103 01:10:53,420 --> 01:10:55,689 it evaporates from irrigation ditches. 1104 01:10:55,755 --> 01:10:58,958 You can see the plants drying out. 1105 01:11:00,193 --> 01:11:02,529 The consequences can be catastrophic. 1106 01:11:03,697 --> 01:11:05,398 As drought increases of course, 1107 01:11:05,465 --> 01:11:08,001 there's less forage for livestock, 1108 01:11:08,068 --> 01:11:11,237 less water for cities and for people. 1109 01:11:11,304 --> 01:11:14,341 Uh, in our part of the world, we're reasonably adapted, 1110 01:11:14,407 --> 01:11:17,077 we have reservoirs and we have water sources. 1111 01:11:17,143 --> 01:11:19,879 But in uh, the developing world it can be absolutely 1112 01:11:19,946 --> 01:11:21,715 catastrophic for the people that live there. 1113 01:11:23,717 --> 01:11:27,687 There are huge swathes of Africa already incredibly vulnerable 1114 01:11:27,754 --> 01:11:33,460 to drought, areas where millions of people subsist on a pastoral economy, 1115 01:11:33,526 --> 01:11:36,730 grazing cattle on very sparse grass. 1116 01:11:40,333 --> 01:11:41,601 2011. 1117 01:11:41,668 --> 01:11:44,938 The worst drought in 60 years devastates East Africa. 1118 01:11:47,540 --> 01:11:50,076 Crops fail across a vast region, 1119 01:11:50,143 --> 01:11:52,112 leading thousands to flee their homes. 1120 01:11:54,647 --> 01:11:57,884 Drought leads to famine. 1121 01:12:03,590 --> 01:12:05,925 The very severe drought and the severe weather 1122 01:12:05,992 --> 01:12:08,395 meant that many, many people starved and many, 1123 01:12:08,461 --> 01:12:11,297 many people were displaced in search of food as a result 1124 01:12:11,364 --> 01:12:12,732 of that extreme weather. 1125 01:12:16,102 --> 01:12:18,471 One estimate puts the death toll at 1126 01:12:18,538 --> 01:12:20,006 over a quarter of a million. 1127 01:12:21,441 --> 01:12:23,910 Making the drought one of the deadliest weather events 1128 01:12:23,977 --> 01:12:25,578 of this decade so far. 1129 01:12:29,149 --> 01:12:32,152 The drought and famine prompts climate expert Peter Stott 1130 01:12:32,218 --> 01:12:35,355 to investigate if climate change contributed to the disaster. 1131 01:12:38,425 --> 01:12:43,196 He uses a supercomputer that completes 100 trillion calculations a second, 1132 01:12:43,263 --> 01:12:44,698 to simulate the drought 1133 01:12:47,467 --> 01:12:50,203 and to analyze the factors that could have been involved. 1134 01:12:55,542 --> 01:12:57,277 The results are bleak. 1135 01:12:59,012 --> 01:13:01,481 What we found with that study was human induced climate change 1136 01:13:01,548 --> 01:13:04,551 had increased the risk and therefore had increased 1137 01:13:04,617 --> 01:13:07,554 the vulnerability significantly of those people uh, 1138 01:13:07,620 --> 01:13:09,122 greater than what it would have been 1139 01:13:09,189 --> 01:13:10,590 if we had not altered the climate. 1140 01:13:12,992 --> 01:13:16,363 Climate change has already made droughts even drier, 1141 01:13:16,429 --> 01:13:17,731 with deadly effect. 1142 01:13:23,703 --> 01:13:27,507 In the future, they'll get drier still and dustier. 1143 01:13:30,276 --> 01:13:32,245 SCOTT Models project that actually southern Europe, 1144 01:13:32,312 --> 01:13:34,347 the Mediterranean region, North Africa, 1145 01:13:34,414 --> 01:13:36,249 they're probably going to suffer the most from drought. 1146 01:13:36,316 --> 01:13:37,650 Just devastating droughts. 1147 01:13:38,852 --> 01:13:41,054 By mid-century, southern Europe could face 1148 01:13:41,121 --> 01:13:42,922 more extreme droughts. 1149 01:13:45,291 --> 01:13:47,394 Parts of Italy, along with Greece and Spain, 1150 01:13:47,460 --> 01:13:49,329 could turn to semi-desert. 1151 01:13:58,538 --> 01:14:01,374 Experts are close to solving the riddle of how some parts 1152 01:14:01,441 --> 01:14:04,511 of the world can get drier, while others get wetter. 1153 01:14:06,646 --> 01:14:09,382 But there's an even bigger mystery in climate science. 1154 01:14:10,316 --> 01:14:14,454 As the world heats up, some places seem to be cooling down. 1155 01:14:15,755 --> 01:14:17,323 Spring 2013. 1156 01:14:17,390 --> 01:14:20,193 Britain is in the midst of a big freeze. 1157 01:14:21,394 --> 01:14:23,997 Temperatures are up to 10 degrees below average. 1158 01:14:27,600 --> 01:14:30,270 Usually any snow has thawed by now… 1159 01:14:30,337 --> 01:14:34,374 Instead, deep snowdrifts bury much of the country 1160 01:14:37,577 --> 01:14:38,712 MAN Give it a try then boys. 1161 01:14:39,212 --> 01:14:42,716 BOY Ok daddy, here we go! 1162 01:14:44,050 --> 01:14:45,885 BRIAN The month of March in particular 1163 01:14:45,952 --> 01:14:49,489 was extremely cold, and it was I believe a record in England 1164 01:14:49,556 --> 01:14:52,292 and Wales and we have a long period for that record. 1165 01:14:52,559 --> 01:14:54,427 And Easter was just terrible. 1166 01:14:54,494 --> 01:14:57,864 So people were freezing. It was very unusual. 1167 01:14:59,099 --> 01:15:02,369 The holiday weekend is the coldest for 50 years. 1168 01:15:05,171 --> 01:15:08,375 But not everyone has time to enjoy the un-seasonal wintry scenes. 1169 01:15:11,511 --> 01:15:14,547 Farmers, like Gareth Wynn Jones, are hard at work. 1170 01:15:16,383 --> 01:15:20,253 At his farm in Wales, the snow has come at the worst possible time. 1171 01:15:21,187 --> 01:15:24,891 It's lambing season and thousands of pregnant sheep 1172 01:15:24,958 --> 01:15:28,294 have been trapped under a meter of snow for four days. 1173 01:15:32,298 --> 01:15:34,367 This snow has come very late. 1174 01:15:34,434 --> 01:15:39,839 My father's 77, he's never seen anything to touch it. 1175 01:15:40,974 --> 01:15:43,443 This time last year, we were in shorts and T-shirts 1176 01:15:43,510 --> 01:15:47,080 and this year, we're digging sheep from massive snowdrifts. 1177 01:15:49,382 --> 01:15:52,052 Many of his sheep succumb to the freezing temperatures. 1178 01:15:52,986 --> 01:15:55,455 It's just frozen solid you see. 1179 01:15:58,058 --> 01:16:00,427 But then, his dog picks up a scent. 1180 01:16:06,466 --> 01:16:08,168 Have they found this one in time? 1181 01:16:16,843 --> 01:16:19,079 She's cold and stiff, but alive. 1182 01:16:20,547 --> 01:16:23,083 Unbelievably. 4-4 days… 1183 01:16:23,149 --> 01:16:28,688 She'll bloody survive now. Job well done boys. Job well done. 1184 01:16:30,256 --> 01:16:33,193 You've got to think. She's been cocooned in there for four days. 1185 01:16:33,259 --> 01:16:35,428 You think about it. 1186 01:16:35,495 --> 01:16:38,665 It's being buried alive, isn't it, it's a tomb, isn't it. 1187 01:16:38,732 --> 01:16:40,667 That's what, that's what people don't understand. 1188 01:16:41,901 --> 01:16:43,636 The sheep is still pregnant, 1189 01:16:43,703 --> 01:16:46,439 and shortly gives birth to a healthy lamb. 1190 01:16:50,043 --> 01:16:52,912 But thousands of other sheep and lambs across the Welsh valleys 1191 01:16:52,979 --> 01:16:54,514 are not so lucky. 1192 01:16:56,082 --> 01:16:57,050 GARETH It is a crisis, 1193 01:16:57,117 --> 01:17:00,353 and we just have to cope with the situation, because, 1194 01:17:00,420 --> 01:17:03,656 one thing I tell you, these mountains 1195 01:17:03,723 --> 01:17:05,859 will have a lot less sheep on them, 1196 01:17:05,925 --> 01:17:08,928 and maybe a lot less farmers as well. 1197 01:17:10,263 --> 01:17:12,032 Over the last few years, 1198 01:17:12,098 --> 01:17:15,001 Britain has endured some surprisingly cold winters. 1199 01:17:33,186 --> 01:17:35,021 BRIAN The expectation a few years ago was, 1200 01:17:35,088 --> 01:17:38,758 "oh everything's going to warm up so we'd forgotten those cold winters." 1201 01:17:38,825 --> 01:17:40,994 And then it was a bit of a shock 1202 01:17:41,061 --> 01:17:43,563 when we actually got a really cold winter. 1203 01:17:45,932 --> 01:17:51,137 We got a really cold winter in 2009-10 and then a very cold 1204 01:17:51,204 --> 01:17:55,842 December 2010, sort of record levels, really intense. 1205 01:17:59,913 --> 01:18:02,082 As temperatures plummet in the UK, 1206 01:18:02,148 --> 01:18:05,251 much of Europe shivers through some of its coldest winters. 1207 01:18:05,719 --> 01:18:07,721 MAN First time in history of Split. 1208 01:18:07,787 --> 01:18:09,689 Snow like you cannot believe. 1209 01:18:14,160 --> 01:18:16,463 In Ukraine this house, like many others, 1210 01:18:16,529 --> 01:18:18,231 is buried in a snow drift. 1211 01:18:26,239 --> 01:18:27,941 They finally dig their way out. 1212 01:18:29,309 --> 01:18:33,213 An ice storm turns Switzerland into a glistening fairy tale kingdom. 1213 01:18:36,149 --> 01:18:39,452 Snow even reaches as far south as the Sahara desert. 1214 01:18:43,056 --> 01:18:44,724 And Israel. 1215 01:18:47,293 --> 01:18:49,195 MAN Shit…he's done. 1216 01:18:49,562 --> 01:18:52,032 Across the Atlantic, it's a similar story. 1217 01:18:54,067 --> 01:18:56,069 Frozen roads cause chaos. 1218 01:19:07,547 --> 01:19:11,017 MAN This is so bad. What the hell? 1219 01:19:24,531 --> 01:19:28,068 The winter of 2013 seems to go on forever. 1220 01:19:29,235 --> 01:19:33,006 WOMAN Oh no, it's pushing forward. This is crazy. 1221 01:19:33,740 --> 01:19:36,576 In May, strong winds push a weird creeping tide of 1222 01:19:36,643 --> 01:19:40,714 ice crystals off a frozen lake toward houses in Minnesota. 1223 01:19:41,247 --> 01:19:42,949 WOMAN Oh my god, Nicky, look! 1224 01:19:44,651 --> 01:19:47,320 This freak cold weather leads many to question 1225 01:19:47,387 --> 01:19:49,589 whether the world is really warming up. 1226 01:19:51,324 --> 01:19:54,094 If the world's getting warmer, why are these winters getting 1227 01:19:54,160 --> 01:19:55,662 colder and longer? 1228 01:19:59,399 --> 01:20:02,135 The answer may lie in an unlikely place. 1229 01:20:03,069 --> 01:20:04,704 The rapidly warming Arctic. 1230 01:20:06,406 --> 01:20:09,142 Paradoxically, as the Arctic heats up, 1231 01:20:09,209 --> 01:20:11,244 it could be cooling other places down. 1232 01:20:13,580 --> 01:20:16,649 As it warms, it appears to be disrupting the jet stream, 1233 01:20:16,716 --> 01:20:19,786 a band of fast-flowing air high in the atmosphere, 1234 01:20:19,853 --> 01:20:22,122 which blows weather systems around the planet. 1235 01:20:25,058 --> 01:20:28,495 That could be keeping cold air masses in place for weeks on end. 1236 01:20:33,166 --> 01:20:35,168 Climatologist Heidi Cullen explains. 1237 01:20:36,236 --> 01:20:38,672 HEIDI The weather is a lot like traffic in Manhattan. 1238 01:20:38,738 --> 01:20:41,574 When traffic is moving, everybody is happy. 1239 01:20:41,641 --> 01:20:43,610 Same thing with weather systems. 1240 01:20:43,677 --> 01:20:46,913 It's basically the equivalent of the jet stream zooming along 1241 01:20:46,980 --> 01:20:50,050 and the weather systems moving along right with it. 1242 01:20:51,551 --> 01:20:53,620 The jet stream is actually steering our weather systems 1243 01:20:53,687 --> 01:20:54,954 around the world. 1244 01:20:56,823 --> 01:20:58,858 Like cars passing an intersection, 1245 01:20:58,925 --> 01:21:01,261 you never have one kind of weather in one place 1246 01:21:01,327 --> 01:21:02,629 for too long. 1247 01:21:04,964 --> 01:21:09,035 Cold weather quickly moves on, giving way to warmer weather, 1248 01:21:09,102 --> 01:21:10,503 and then colder weather again. 1249 01:21:12,005 --> 01:21:14,841 HEIDI But if that Jetstream slows down 1250 01:21:14,908 --> 01:21:17,243 the weather systems slow down with it. 1251 01:21:20,380 --> 01:21:23,083 We're basically seeing the equivalent of a traffic jam 1252 01:21:23,149 --> 01:21:24,484 in the atmosphere. 1253 01:21:26,653 --> 01:21:28,621 This is known as a blocking system. 1254 01:21:30,357 --> 01:21:32,692 And it causes one type of weather to get stuck 1255 01:21:32,759 --> 01:21:34,828 in one place for a long time. 1256 01:21:36,730 --> 01:21:38,865 That's exactly what we saw in Europe 1257 01:21:38,932 --> 01:21:40,567 and the US this past winter - 1258 01:21:40,633 --> 01:21:43,203 we had you know blocking pressure systems 1259 01:21:43,269 --> 01:21:45,872 and you just had cold weather essentially locked in place 1260 01:21:45,939 --> 01:21:46,940 for months on end. 1261 01:21:48,575 --> 01:21:51,378 When the weather is moving people can deal with it, 1262 01:21:51,444 --> 01:21:53,713 but just like with traffic in Manhattan, 1263 01:21:53,780 --> 01:21:56,416 you know when you're in gridlock, it's miserable. 1264 01:21:57,584 --> 01:21:59,452 Blocking systems, like traffic lights, 1265 01:21:59,519 --> 01:22:01,321 stop anything from moving on. 1266 01:22:03,990 --> 01:22:07,127 Instead of a brief icy blast followed by a warmer spell, 1267 01:22:07,193 --> 01:22:09,629 the freezing air is fixed in place. 1268 01:22:12,899 --> 01:22:15,935 In the future as the Arctic warms up even faster, 1269 01:22:16,002 --> 01:22:18,571 the jet stream could get even slower, 1270 01:22:18,638 --> 01:22:21,207 locking in the colder weather. 1271 01:22:24,144 --> 01:22:27,947 Snowstorms could reach places we'd never expect to turn white. 1272 01:22:33,520 --> 01:22:35,789 Ironically in a warmer world 1273 01:22:35,855 --> 01:22:37,857 we could actually see colder winters 1274 01:22:37,924 --> 01:22:39,726 and, and it really comes down to the fact 1275 01:22:39,793 --> 01:22:43,563 that our climate system is incredibly complex. 1276 01:22:44,497 --> 01:22:47,534 But these freak cold winters won't last forever. 1277 01:22:48,902 --> 01:22:50,503 In the long term, you can think of it as 1278 01:22:50,570 --> 01:22:52,772 the heat wins out over the cold. 1279 01:22:52,839 --> 01:22:55,075 So we're gonna see more, more heat extremes 1280 01:22:55,141 --> 01:22:56,710 and fewer cold extremes. 1281 01:22:58,645 --> 01:23:01,414 As sea ice in the Arctic continues to melt, 1282 01:23:01,481 --> 01:23:05,118 the traffic jam in the sky may have far-reaching repercussions. 1283 01:23:08,321 --> 01:23:10,957 As well as big freezes, the same blocking systems 1284 01:23:11,024 --> 01:23:13,460 could make all kinds of weather even worse. 1285 01:23:15,662 --> 01:23:17,897 When hot weather gets stuck in one place, 1286 01:23:17,964 --> 01:23:21,368 it triggers even hotter heat waves, and more wildfires. 1287 01:23:23,903 --> 01:23:28,241 When dry weather gets stuck, droughts get drier and dustier still. 1288 01:23:29,743 --> 01:23:34,280 And when heavy rain gets stuck, it can cause catastrophic floods. 1289 01:23:40,920 --> 01:23:44,391 Climate change is already making some kinds of extreme weather worse. 1290 01:23:45,258 --> 01:23:48,294 More blocking systems would be a brutal double whammy. 1291 01:23:51,798 --> 01:23:54,200 And the knock on effects of a warmer Arctic 1292 01:23:54,267 --> 01:23:56,870 may even be changing the course of dangerous hurricanes, 1293 01:23:56,936 --> 01:23:59,239 like Hurricane Sandy. 1294 01:24:00,940 --> 01:24:03,376 Storms that move up America's east coast, 1295 01:24:03,443 --> 01:24:05,945 normally drift out harmlessly into the Atlantic, 1296 01:24:06,546 --> 01:24:08,048 but not this time. 1297 01:24:09,115 --> 01:24:10,583 So Sandy took this very unusual course 1298 01:24:10,650 --> 01:24:12,719 back towards land. 1299 01:24:18,258 --> 01:24:21,728 There's emerging research exploring whether loss of sea ice in the Arctic 1300 01:24:21,795 --> 01:24:25,865 may make storms taking that path more frequent in the future. 1301 01:24:28,802 --> 01:24:31,271 Many scientists already expect climate change 1302 01:24:31,338 --> 01:24:34,908 to cause more powerful hurricanes and higher storm surges. 1303 01:24:37,777 --> 01:24:41,047 So a damaging shift in hurricane paths, if confirmed, 1304 01:24:41,114 --> 01:24:43,516 would be a devastating triple whammy. 1305 01:24:50,490 --> 01:24:55,795 Colder winters, hotter summers, droughts, floods, 1306 01:24:55,862 --> 01:25:01,034 thunderstorms, wildfires and hurricanes spiraling out of control. 1307 01:25:03,737 --> 01:25:07,640 The weather is already changing. And this is only the beginning. 1308 01:25:09,576 --> 01:25:11,478 Just how bad will the weather get? 1309 01:25:12,379 --> 01:25:14,814 The answer depends on the amount of carbon dioxide 1310 01:25:14,881 --> 01:25:17,917 and other greenhouse gases, we release into the air. 1311 01:25:19,619 --> 01:25:21,654 The carbon dioxide has risen in my lifetime 1312 01:25:21,721 --> 01:25:25,759 from about 330 parts per million to about 400 parts per million. 1313 01:25:25,825 --> 01:25:30,830 In my children's lifetime, it's likely to hit 800 parts per million. 1314 01:25:32,132 --> 01:25:33,466 We ain't seen nothin' yet. 1315 01:25:34,834 --> 01:25:37,337 If levels continue to increase at this rate, 1316 01:25:37,404 --> 01:25:40,040 by the end of the century, temperatures could rise by 1317 01:25:40,106 --> 01:25:42,542 as much as seven degrees on average 1318 01:25:42,609 --> 01:25:46,746 and trigger extreme weather like we've never seen before. 1319 01:25:52,185 --> 01:25:54,888 What we now consider a severe heat wave 1320 01:25:54,954 --> 01:25:56,222 could be a normal summer. 1321 01:25:57,123 --> 01:26:00,560 Sparking more wildfires on every populated continent. 1322 01:26:04,097 --> 01:26:07,634 Powerful hurricanes could stray far from their current territory. 1323 01:26:08,868 --> 01:26:11,204 And their higher storm surges could inundate the homes 1324 01:26:11,271 --> 01:26:14,040 of 150 million more people. 1325 01:26:16,910 --> 01:26:19,779 SCOTT If we keep burning fossil fuels, coal, oil, 1326 01:26:19,846 --> 01:26:21,881 natural gas like there's no tomorrow, 1327 01:26:21,948 --> 01:26:25,652 we're on our way to a situation where these freak weather events 1328 01:26:25,719 --> 01:26:28,054 we talk about now are going to be the weather normals 1329 01:26:28,121 --> 01:26:29,356 by the end of the century. 1330 01:26:30,824 --> 01:26:33,760 For storm chasers, pursuing freak weather is now 1331 01:26:33,827 --> 01:26:35,695 an exhilarating way of life. 1332 01:26:39,399 --> 01:26:42,135 Whoa, man alive! 1333 01:26:42,202 --> 01:26:44,037 They witness nature at its most extreme. 1334 01:26:45,205 --> 01:26:47,707 MAN Wow! Are we gonna be ok? 1335 01:26:47,774 --> 01:26:49,075 MAN Yeah, yeah, fine. 1336 01:26:51,144 --> 01:26:53,646 But even for them, as the weather changes, 1337 01:26:53,713 --> 01:26:55,715 the future looks frightening. 1338 01:26:58,451 --> 01:26:59,586 GEORGE I can see what's coming. 1339 01:26:59,652 --> 01:27:02,722 I know our weather is getting worse. I've seen it. 1340 01:27:02,789 --> 01:27:05,725 I'm anticipating it to get even worse still. 1341 01:27:09,562 --> 01:27:12,632 And as a storm chaser, someone who actively pursues these 1342 01:27:12,699 --> 01:27:18,438 things passionately, I want to be there for the worst of the worst. 1343 01:27:21,341 --> 01:27:24,144 But at the same time, I don't want to see the death 1344 01:27:24,210 --> 01:27:25,879 and destruction that goes along with it! 1345 01:27:28,581 --> 01:27:31,084 But many experts believe it's not yet too late 1346 01:27:31,151 --> 01:27:33,520 to prevent this climate catastrophe. 1347 01:27:35,155 --> 01:27:37,791 If we switch soon to sources of power that don't release 1348 01:27:37,857 --> 01:27:42,128 greenhouse gases, we may only heat the world by two degrees. 1349 01:27:42,996 --> 01:27:44,564 SCOTT So it's really on us. We have choices. 1350 01:27:44,631 --> 01:27:47,934 We decide the weather of the future. We decide today. 1351 01:27:49,402 --> 01:27:52,339 Scientists are confident the weather will get worse. 1352 01:27:53,640 --> 01:27:56,242 How much worse is up to us. 111482

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