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In the first half of December, the losses
of Russian occupation troops amounted to
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almost 15,000, which is comparable to the
pace and volume of losses in November,
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when an absolute record of 28,550
enemy personnel losses was set.
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At the same time, the losses in
equipment, tanks, Armoured fighting
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vehicles and artillery are decreasing. In
terms of tank losses, the peak was October,
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the height of the Avdeevka offensive, while
in November the losses decreased by 40%.
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The reduction in tank losses of the Russian
forces, compared to November, may be 10-20%.
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And this is not because they have become more
effective in using the mechanized component,
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no. But because since November it is
the infantry component that has become
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the main component of Russian troops in
assault operations. As for equipment,
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they are trying to put it on the battlefield
less now, stockpiling it for attempts at more
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powerful breakthroughs. In the
area of Avdeevka, for example.
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This all leads to the fact that the increase in
enemy losses in the near future will be invariably
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high and December may well become a record in
terms of the number of destroyed occupants.
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Meanwhile, Russian troops have decided to
force the Oskil River north of Kupiansk
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Not being able to reach the left bank of
the Oskil River and the apparent slowdown
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of the offensive in the area of Synkivka,
the Russian command will attempt to force
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the water barrier in an unexpected
place - in the direction of Kamianka.
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Currently, the enemy is in the
process of accumulating resources
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in the area of temporarily occupied Pisky,
Topoli and Lyman Druhyi in Kharkiv region,
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on the left bank of the Oskil
River. The direction of the strike,
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more than obviously, will be the villages
of Topoli and Kamianka, on the right bank.
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But what is most worrisome is the transfer
of TOS-1 Heavy Flamethrower System to the
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above-mentioned location, which will have to
ensure the success of the operation. Well,
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or to replenish the composition of the destroyed
equipment of this type, which is already all gold,
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especially with the problems of supplying
the troops with problematic TOS-2.
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Actually, the command of the Russian troops
will try to reach the right bank by forcing
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the Oskil north of Kupiansk. However,
given the failures of the Russian forces
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to force the water barriers during 2022 and
2023, I have my doubts about the success
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of this idea. Although the TOS-1 Heavy
Flamethrower System is still a concern,
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there is also a high risk of increased
firepower through aviation, using Guided bombs.
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I do not exclude that at the moment of forcing,
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Guided bombs will be predominantly
focused on this location.
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