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Although Ukraine has made progress in forcing
Russian ships out of much of the Black Sea,
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strategic strikes against Russia and advancing
around Bakhmut, many critics have focused only
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on the southern offensive. At the same time, aid
from the Allies was not at the pace expected, and
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the time gained allowed the enemy to establish a
hypertrophied defense in the occupied territories.
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The forcing of the left bank of
the Dnipro became an important
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moment in the offensive of 2023. This
operation showed that the Ukrainian
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command is still able to find ways to
hit the Russians and push them back.
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The timing was good. After the large-scale
offensive in the Zaporizhzhya direction
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has yielded small territorial
gains over the past four months,
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the Ukrainian side wants to end 2023
with a significant operational success.
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An AFU offensive across the Dnipro
River could also create important
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strategic opportunities. Every success
achieved on the left bank will challenge
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Russian narratives that predict
no progress for Ukraine in 2024.
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The success of the Dnipro operation will also
lead to the liberation of a large part of the
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Ukrainian territory. This, in turn, could allow
the Ukrainians to put Crimea at even greater
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risk and force a radical restructuring
of the Russian defense scheme. Part of
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the message of this Ukrainian offensive
across the Dnipro River is as follows:
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"Crimea, don't be bored! We're coming for you".
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The Ukrainian defense forces also
have tactical options. They have
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landed far away from the main defensive
"Surovikin frontiers" - this location on
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the left bank may offer the best chance of
tactical success until the end of the year.
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River crossings are conducted only when
absolutely necessary. Such operations
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require significant resources - engineers,
bridges, artillery. Such operations are
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usually conducted only in the main direction
or what will soon become the main direction.
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For the AFU in this operation many calls remain.
First of all, Ukrainian forces on the left bank,
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still have only limited artillery
support and limited mobility under
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protection from the right bank. This
limits the speed of their advance.
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The second challenge is that all equipment
and ammunition must be transported by boat and
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raft across the river. Although a pontoon may
eventually be brought in, until that time the
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Ukrainians will have limited ammunition and other
supplies available to their troops on this side.
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This operation could be the final one
in 2023. Ukrainian commander-in-chief
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Valerii Zaluzhnyi noted in an
interview with The Economist,
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"Most likely, there will be no
deep and beautiful breakthrough."
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Successfully overcoming this frontier is one of
the key moments of this war . Given the difficulty
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of crossing the river under round-the-clock
control of enemy drones and constant airstrikes,
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the subsequent expansion of the buffer
zone is a great tactical achievement.
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Despite this, many risks remain for Ukrainians
in the Kherson region. The situation on the left
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bank remains dangerous from a tactical point of
view. The enemy is now well aware of the danger
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it poses. Significant heavy battles are imminent
for the full realization of this operation.
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