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During these weeks of the Avdiivka assault,
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the Russian army lost more tanks and armored
vehicles han in each of the previous 11 months.
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The city's defenders destroyed most of
the infantry and equipment of the four
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motorized rifle brigades of the Russian
Armed Forces storming north of Avdiivka.
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Since the beginning of the offensive,
the Russians have been able to advance
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up to one and a half kilometers forward,
and planted a flag at night on the spoil
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heap of the coke plant. That is, they
did not even occupy the spoil heap,
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but planted the flags of Russia and the
USSR for a very short time and fled.
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The enemy can't occupy the spoil heap,
because it is targeted by fire of the
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Ukrainian Defense Forces, it
was a gray zone and still is.
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But on the railroad in the direction of
Stepove the occupants had successes and
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were able to gain a foothold in several
areas. But the existing enemy control
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does not give him the opportunity to
deploy a new breakthrough directly to
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Stepove and to Berdichi, which is
another important node of defense.
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The Russian army was unable to take Avdiivka,
the reserves of the 1st Army Corps suffered
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significant losses and it was reported that
the Russian Ministry of Defense threw the
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Wagnerites into the battle. Probably on
such an occasion they were "amnestied",
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despite the "mutiny", because the enemy has
no other reserves to storm Avdiivka - the
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Russian army is constrained by fighting
along the entire front. Or they need to
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weaken their positions somewhere, for example
in the Lugansk direction, we will soon see.
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It is also quite likely that
the Russian General Staff is
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throwing Wagnerites into the battle in
order to shift the responsibility for
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the failure of the offensive from
the regular army to the convicts.
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If at first it could be regarded
as actions similar to the summer
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operation near Kupiansk aimed at
diverting the reserves of the AFU,
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then after numerous videos of burning armored
vehicles and the constant resumption of attacks
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by columns it became clear that this is an
attempt to encircle and capture the city.
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Putin has been muttering in his speeches for
three months now that the Ukrainian offensive
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in the south has failed. And if the Russian
army had managed to take Avdiivka by storm,
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he would have put a fat point - look,
the Ukrainians suffered for 4 months,
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and our army captured Avdiivka so quickly.
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So they accumulated forces and threw in an
attack against one of the most fortified
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areas. Earlier I said that the Russian side
does not have the capacity for a large-scale
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offensive along the entire front, only
for a local one. This is actually what
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we are seeing, as well as attempts
in several other parts of the front.
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I think the very belief in their own
military reports played a role here. I
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can well assume that Putin really
believes in the loss ratio of 8
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to 1 in favor of Russia and other fairy
tales about destroying dozens of HIMARS.
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And if you believe in such things, you inevitably
get the feeling that the Ukrainian army is
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already running out, and the Russian army is
vigorous and all-powerful. And then you can
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send columns into suicidal attacks. But an
easy walk will not, as the enemy expected.
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Now that the blitzkrieg has failed,
there is no way to stop this ruinous
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offensive. And how it will end, until it is clear.
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Pyrrhic victory is when you achieve victory in
a local battle, but at such a cost that leads to
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a general defeat. Only it may turn out that they
will not be able to take Avdiivka, and they will
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lose so much manpower and equipment that it will
have an effect on the scale of the entire war.
5598
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