Would you like to inspect the original subtitles? These are the user uploaded subtitles that are being translated: 1 1 00:00:00,912 --> 00:00:03,450 Once you have ten risks or less 2 2 00:00:03,450 --> 00:00:06,112 you can do more detailed analysis. 3 3 00:00:06,112 --> 00:00:09,018 The quantification step puts specific numbers 4 4 00:00:09,018 --> 00:00:12,517 on the probability, time, and cost of each risk, 5 5 00:00:12,517 --> 00:00:15,424 enabling you to calculate a probable time 6 6 00:00:15,424 --> 00:00:19,935 and probable cost to put aside in the risk budget. 7 7 00:00:19,935 --> 00:00:22,686 First we estimate probability, 8 8 00:00:22,686 --> 00:00:26,043 the likelihood of the risk happening. 9 9 00:00:26,043 --> 00:00:28,723 It's always a good idea to use historical information, 10 10 00:00:28,723 --> 00:00:30,505 if it's available. 11 11 00:00:30,505 --> 00:00:32,838 But even then we often just use it as a guide 12 12 00:00:32,838 --> 00:00:36,202 and input it into a Delphi estimation. 13 13 00:00:36,202 --> 00:00:38,508 Recall in the estimating section we described 14 14 00:00:38,508 --> 00:00:40,153 the Delphi method. 15 15 00:00:40,153 --> 00:00:43,133 Gathering a team and using several rounds to get 16 16 00:00:43,133 --> 00:00:46,765 the best possible guess about the future. 17 17 00:00:46,765 --> 00:00:48,602 For the Delphi estimation, 18 18 00:00:48,602 --> 00:00:51,209 choose probability in steps of 10 percent, 19 19 00:00:51,209 --> 00:00:53,974 so no 25 percents or 35 percents, 20 20 00:00:53,974 --> 00:00:55,899 to 80 percent max. 21 21 00:00:55,899 --> 00:00:59,218 Assume 90 percent probable risks will happen, 22 22 00:00:59,218 --> 00:01:01,986 and put the full time and cost in the project. 23 23 00:01:01,986 --> 00:01:04,839 If they don't happen, you got lucky. 24 24 00:01:04,839 --> 00:01:08,534 Then estimate the time impact on the project 25 25 00:01:08,534 --> 00:01:11,039 if the risk actually does happen. 26 26 00:01:11,039 --> 00:01:14,186 Again, if good historical information is available, 27 27 00:01:14,186 --> 00:01:16,385 it's always the best place to start. 28 28 00:01:16,385 --> 00:01:17,549 But even if it is, 29 29 00:01:17,549 --> 00:01:19,813 often inputting it into a Delphi estimation 30 30 00:01:19,813 --> 00:01:21,996 is the best technique. 31 31 00:01:21,996 --> 00:01:25,452 Then estimate the cost impact on the project 32 32 00:01:25,452 --> 00:01:28,251 if the risk actually does happen. 33 33 00:01:28,251 --> 00:01:30,805 We can use historical information 34 34 00:01:30,805 --> 00:01:33,532 or the Delphi method if it seems appropriate, 35 35 00:01:33,532 --> 00:01:37,301 but often cost is a calculation based on the time 36 36 00:01:37,301 --> 00:01:38,975 and other impacts, 37 37 00:01:38,975 --> 00:01:42,980 for example the costs for all personnel, material and services 38 38 00:01:42,980 --> 00:01:45,535 needed to address the risk. 39 39 00:01:45,535 --> 00:01:47,433 Then, for each risk, 40 40 00:01:47,433 --> 00:01:50,225 we put aside probability times time 41 41 00:01:50,225 --> 00:01:54,119 and probability times cost in the risk budget. 42 42 00:01:54,119 --> 00:01:58,798 This probabilistic calculation provides most accurate 43 43 00:01:58,798 --> 00:02:01,449 assessment of the likely amount we will need 44 44 00:02:01,449 --> 00:02:05,520 since some risks will happen and some won't. 45 45 00:02:05,520 --> 00:02:10,300 However, you need at least five risks for this to work. 46 46 00:02:10,300 --> 00:02:11,759 So if you don't have five risks, 47 47 00:02:11,759 --> 00:02:13,987 you need to go review the project again 48 48 00:02:13,987 --> 00:02:15,870 and find some more. 49 49 00:02:15,870 --> 00:02:18,035 This is where risk checklists can be very useful 50 50 00:02:18,035 --> 00:02:19,952 to help jog the memory. 4231