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of the white of trading course
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um thank you for all of your emails and
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for all of the comments that i've
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received about the first two classes you
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could see some of the comments from
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students
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on the left
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side of the slide
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i'm really excited that i hear a lot of
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excitement from you guys
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and that
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obviously always energizes me you know
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to
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go on and to think that this is going to
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be a great cycle and i see how you guys
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are communicating with me it took me
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um a few hours to go through the
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homeworks so i've actually
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was able uh you know today and usually
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monday is my preparation day for the
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course um since the morning
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you know to go through all of the emails
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and there were quite a few so thank you
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for sending those thank you for all of
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the kind words by the way that you sent
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me uh you know about the course and
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you know the knowledge that we present
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in this course so i really appreciate
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that um
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i am also was
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uh somewhat impressed because the first
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homework where people send me their
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labeling
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it kind of gives me an understanding of
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what the cycle is going to be you know
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and how people are going to be in this
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course and so on and so forth so i was
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really impressed with
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the level of understanding of the
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material that's number one secondly how
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you guys are picking up the new
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knowledge and applying this having said
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this there are obviously tons of
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adjustments that we will do that we will
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need to do so
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you know this is not a finished product
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yet by any means so there is a lot of
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work um in front of us but still such a
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great start
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and today specifically with the homework
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i want you to point your attention to
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the
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identification of
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phase boundaries um almost in each of
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the homeworks we had something to adjust
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around the boundaries of of the phases
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and obviously you know
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there's something that i need to give
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you so we will
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we will definitely go through some of
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the theoretical material where i will
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show you how to identify phase c
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how to identify the boundaries you know
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between different phases and so on so
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forth and then you know we'll go through
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all the stuff today as well next session
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is january 28th we are uh gonna continue
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uh with the price structure so uh these
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homeworks are fundamental tools for us
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to
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start learning about
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phase analysis so that's gonna be our
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focus
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and we will continue uh with that on
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january 28th
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all right as usual
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all of our classes are for educational
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purposes only stop your video read the
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disclaimer
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and then today i actually let me do one
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thing guys before i'm realizing that
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actually
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slightly unprepared do you guys see my
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screen right now
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um
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okay yeah you should not be seeing my
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screen right now
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i think okay
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okay great
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oh hold on a second
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okay awesome
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okay great
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and now you sh we should be back
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all right yes so we are on the question
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from lee
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okay awesome uh thank you guys it's just
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like one
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minor
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technical detail that i had to take care
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of so
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this is a question from the student in
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this class
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why am i posting this
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slide here and why are we discussing
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this question i usually email to your
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guy i email you guys the instructions
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about the questions as such
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if you sent me a question that requires
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a lot of explanation most likely i will
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not be able to answer it over the email
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but i really really would like to answer
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this email in the classroom environment
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and there is a specific reason of why i
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want to do this if i am spending time
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answering your email question and let's
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say i spent maybe like 20 minutes on
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that you know let's just suppose that
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this is a big question
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then
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what i'm not doing is i'm not explaining
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the same concepts to other people in the
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classroom so
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what is the best to do is to have the
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question
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that is the in line with the content
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that we are covering right now so lee is
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sending the question that is very close
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you know uh it's a little bit on the
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borderline here because we're going to
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discuss you know some supply and demand
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but i think it's a really good preview
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for our second month when we will be
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diving in into the supply and demand
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concepts plus lee is taking
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the uh
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the chart
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from our class this is the chart of
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yahoo
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so questions like this sometimes i will
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subjectively put into the content of the
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class we also will have one session the
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last session will all be devoted to q a
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and i know that you have
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so many questions about the homework
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right now we will go through those uh as
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well and usually homework questions
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those that definitely need to be
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addressed
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uh during the next class you know it was
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the homework review
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so uh we've talked about yahoo
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and we were talking about yahoo in the
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context of a change of character this
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was the first place where in the trend
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we saw how the change of character has
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happened a much larger reaction to the
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downside there is not a lot of supply
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that's coming in it's kind of flat i
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would even say
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but the
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uh result to the downside
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has increased even though supply has not
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increased so what can we conclude well
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we're still thinking that this could
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lead to a change of character and
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therefore a trading range and then we
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need to understand what kind of bias
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we're going to have in that trading
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range as i mentioned to you in the
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previous class and this is
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the way how i establish my communication
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you know and kind of like my
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integrity with you guys
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even here at these two spots i'm
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thinking that the bias is still to the
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upside
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you know um
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i'm not sure if somebody else anybody
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could persuade me otherwise at this
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point of time i just don't see any
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increase in the volume signature maybe
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slightly more here but the result is
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even less than the first change of
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character uh less supply on the next
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reaction only really one day of selling
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and then just you know inactivity by
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sellers and more deterioration on of the
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volume and the supply so we still would
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be thinking that the bias is up here
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and our position is going to be here i
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mentioned that probably we would be
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closing somewhere here on this bar and
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this is how we come back into this
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trading range
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so and then the question
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the question is about two spots or two
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bars or rather you know two places
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number one and number two
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so we already see how the price has
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deteriorated below two levels of the
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support that were so important
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one of them was in the middle of the
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range
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and was still please note the bias was
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still to the upside so now at the
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failure of this
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we have couple of failures actually
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so the first one comes as an up thrust
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and there is the first failure the price
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comes back into the range
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so at this spot we're always thinking a
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sign of strength rally
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or an up thrust situation
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and we'll talk about this more
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uh
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as the price comes back into the trading
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range that becomes a failure and
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therefore we start talking about the up
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thrust
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and up thrust
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could be a function could be a part of
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the reaccumulation that's true
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but also an up thrust you know could be
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a part of the distribution so the next
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thing that we do after the failure is we
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want to see where the price will go
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what kind of price deterioration we will
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have
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and what kind of character behind this
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deterioration we're going to see
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so we're seeing that the price is
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committing below
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local support
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and by itself it's a weakness
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at least a short-term weakness for
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and then we see the increase in the
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effort behind the increase in the supply
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so that suggests to us that there is
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some kind of short-term bearish bias
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that we should be aware of at this point
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the rally which is going to be an lpsy
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rally here in the middle of the range
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is very weak
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it doesn't even come to one half
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of the move to the downside that we've
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seen
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since the up thrust so again more
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weakness
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and then a continuation of that weakness
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and you know a slight commitment even
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below the previous support line so we
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are in a sign of weakness type of
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environment supply is increasing and as
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we go into those two spots number one
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and number two we are creating the new
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trading range that already has some bias
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that we perceive perceive at this point
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as the downside bias
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why is that
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well we've seen a change of character
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this is the largest
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reaction to the downside
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than what we've seen before
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and now we are trying to confirm that
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change of character how we're confirming
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that well we need to have
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a rally lps wire rally last point of
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supply rally that will fail at some
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point at which point would it fail well
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we want for the distribution this rally
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to be so weak that it cannot overcome
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one half of the trading range or the
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height of the trading range and we kind
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of see it here right so the price
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uh goes up with enthusiasm to the upside
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and comes to this value zone right here
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and
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what do we have here acceptance of this
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level or rejection of this level supply
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coming in at the highs of this
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resistance or supply is coming in and
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being observed or supply is not coming
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in well we definitely see that there are
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some spots
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for instance like right here
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where
287
00:11:13,519 --> 00:11:15,680
uh first of all after the short-term
288
00:11:15,680 --> 00:11:19,200
break of a trend we see that supply is
289
00:11:19,200 --> 00:11:20,880
actually increasing
290
00:11:20,880 --> 00:11:24,640
and this um i wonder if um lee you have
291
00:11:24,640 --> 00:11:25,760
seen
292
00:11:25,760 --> 00:11:27,120
this uh
293
00:11:27,120 --> 00:11:30,160
you know spread and this increase in the
294
00:11:30,160 --> 00:11:33,040
spread as well because it's all related
295
00:11:33,040 --> 00:11:35,120
to the other two that you've you've
296
00:11:35,120 --> 00:11:36,959
mentioned here actually
297
00:11:36,959 --> 00:11:39,839
another uh another one right here
298
00:11:39,839 --> 00:11:41,600
so let's kind of observe what is
299
00:11:41,600 --> 00:11:44,880
happening at this spots
300
00:11:44,880 --> 00:11:46,720
the first one
301
00:11:46,720 --> 00:11:49,040
the second one
302
00:11:49,040 --> 00:11:50,480
third one
303
00:11:50,480 --> 00:11:52,959
and then the fourth one
304
00:11:52,959 --> 00:11:55,600
actually we could even do this we could
305
00:11:55,600 --> 00:11:58,959
even look at this and this
306
00:11:58,959 --> 00:12:02,000
so um one of the things
307
00:12:02,000 --> 00:12:07,120
that we notice right away is um
308
00:12:07,120 --> 00:12:10,959
we want to notice the areas where supply
309
00:12:10,959 --> 00:12:12,480
has come
310
00:12:12,480 --> 00:12:14,480
and supply
311
00:12:14,480 --> 00:12:17,519
has increased and it's started producing
312
00:12:17,519 --> 00:12:19,839
either
313
00:12:20,079 --> 00:12:23,200
a stop in action
314
00:12:23,200 --> 00:12:26,880
some kind of reversal action
315
00:12:26,880 --> 00:12:29,279
and then uh
316
00:12:29,279 --> 00:12:31,760
synchronicity
317
00:12:31,760 --> 00:12:32,959
with
318
00:12:32,959 --> 00:12:36,560
the increasing result to the downside
319
00:12:36,560 --> 00:12:38,800
and that's kind of like a sequence of
320
00:12:38,800 --> 00:12:40,720
how supply is going to come in
321
00:12:40,720 --> 00:12:43,839
supply is not necessarily right away
322
00:12:43,839 --> 00:12:47,440
it's going to reverse the whole bus
323
00:12:47,440 --> 00:12:50,560
it's just impossible because
324
00:12:50,560 --> 00:12:52,800
you know it was the uptrend that we have
325
00:12:52,800 --> 00:12:54,160
had
326
00:12:54,160 --> 00:12:56,560
there is a specific sentiment that
327
00:12:56,560 --> 00:12:59,680
exists uh in market participants minds
328
00:12:59,680 --> 00:13:01,920
at this point of time as to what should
329
00:13:01,920 --> 00:13:02,959
happen
330
00:13:02,959 --> 00:13:05,680
we should be in the uptrend we see this
331
00:13:05,680 --> 00:13:06,639
from
332
00:13:06,639 --> 00:13:08,320
you know the sentiment we could derive
333
00:13:08,320 --> 00:13:10,240
from how the price moves and from the
334
00:13:10,240 --> 00:13:13,839
volume signature everybody is on board
335
00:13:13,839 --> 00:13:16,720
uh nobody is getting out of this
336
00:13:16,720 --> 00:13:17,839
position
337
00:13:17,839 --> 00:13:20,320
uh the first time when we could see a
338
00:13:20,320 --> 00:13:22,000
more meaningful
339
00:13:22,000 --> 00:13:23,680
getting out of this position is going to
340
00:13:23,680 --> 00:13:26,160
be in this area right here and this is
341
00:13:26,160 --> 00:13:27,279
why
342
00:13:27,279 --> 00:13:29,440
until then we're still thinking that we
343
00:13:29,440 --> 00:13:31,279
might be in the rear accumulation
344
00:13:31,279 --> 00:13:33,040
because the texture
345
00:13:33,040 --> 00:13:35,360
for both the price and the volume is
346
00:13:35,360 --> 00:13:37,440
such that it dictates that you know the
347
00:13:37,440 --> 00:13:39,120
price most likely is going to continue
348
00:13:39,120 --> 00:13:40,480
to the upside
349
00:13:40,480 --> 00:13:43,519
now as it continues to the upside this
350
00:13:43,519 --> 00:13:45,680
is the where for the first time we're
351
00:13:45,680 --> 00:13:48,959
experiencing some increase of the supply
352
00:13:48,959 --> 00:13:51,680
and for the first time it's not only
353
00:13:51,680 --> 00:13:53,279
stopping
354
00:13:53,279 --> 00:13:55,680
the price from moving further up but it
355
00:13:55,680 --> 00:13:58,000
actually synchronized with the result to
356
00:13:58,000 --> 00:14:00,000
the downside
357
00:14:00,000 --> 00:14:03,760
so this is the first area of significant
358
00:14:03,760 --> 00:14:06,000
institutional selling
359
00:14:06,000 --> 00:14:07,360
that we see
360
00:14:07,360 --> 00:14:09,760
now as we go through the sign of
361
00:14:09,760 --> 00:14:13,120
weakness then we see how supply also
362
00:14:13,120 --> 00:14:14,399
comes
363
00:14:14,399 --> 00:14:16,399
at the lower level
364
00:14:16,399 --> 00:14:18,320
so we are kind of
365
00:14:18,320 --> 00:14:22,720
now in a different value zone
366
00:14:22,720 --> 00:14:25,120
and this value zone because we are
367
00:14:25,120 --> 00:14:26,959
looking at the distribution is going to
368
00:14:26,959 --> 00:14:29,760
be described as the value zone for weak
369
00:14:29,760 --> 00:14:32,240
hands this is just the definition of the
370
00:14:32,240 --> 00:14:34,160
like of trading course that i created
371
00:14:34,160 --> 00:14:36,160
you know for you guys and for myself
372
00:14:36,160 --> 00:14:38,079
this is how we would define the values
373
00:14:38,079 --> 00:14:40,560
of so what is happening here and coming
374
00:14:40,560 --> 00:14:42,639
back to this question by ali
375
00:14:42,639 --> 00:14:45,600
i would like to understand
376
00:14:45,600 --> 00:14:47,680
what was actually happening at points
377
00:14:47,680 --> 00:14:50,240
number one and two
378
00:14:50,240 --> 00:14:52,079
to understand what's happening at these
379
00:14:52,079 --> 00:14:53,920
two points we need to understand what
380
00:14:53,920 --> 00:14:55,440
happened prior
381
00:14:55,440 --> 00:14:58,560
and we kind of go into this so
382
00:14:58,560 --> 00:15:01,680
the value zone for weak hands
383
00:15:01,680 --> 00:15:04,079
what does it mean
384
00:15:04,079 --> 00:15:07,360
it means that at this spot right here
385
00:15:07,360 --> 00:15:11,639
and at this spot right here
386
00:15:12,000 --> 00:15:13,760
weak hands
387
00:15:13,760 --> 00:15:15,600
are buyers
388
00:15:15,600 --> 00:15:18,639
and if they are buyers what do they see
389
00:15:18,639 --> 00:15:20,880
the weak hands are seeing some kind of
390
00:15:20,880 --> 00:15:22,560
value
391
00:15:22,560 --> 00:15:24,880
so that's a very interesting thought how
392
00:15:24,880 --> 00:15:26,959
could they see value at this point of
393
00:15:26,959 --> 00:15:29,199
time
394
00:15:29,199 --> 00:15:31,759
the trend up has been broken
395
00:15:31,759 --> 00:15:34,320
the stock went into the consolidation
396
00:15:34,320 --> 00:15:37,920
the stock as at the support level
397
00:15:37,920 --> 00:15:40,480
wouldn't they feel more fear to come in
398
00:15:40,480 --> 00:15:42,639
and to establish this position
399
00:15:42,639 --> 00:15:46,399
it's a very interesting um
400
00:15:46,399 --> 00:15:49,279
observation about the weak hands because
401
00:15:49,279 --> 00:15:51,120
the weak hands are going to be getting
402
00:15:51,120 --> 00:15:53,120
in and to the trend
403
00:15:53,120 --> 00:15:56,639
either very very late
404
00:15:57,839 --> 00:15:59,839
and they will be profitable
405
00:15:59,839 --> 00:16:00,800
so
406
00:16:00,800 --> 00:16:03,120
we can't get in
407
00:16:03,120 --> 00:16:04,560
in
408
00:16:04,560 --> 00:16:06,320
and they will be profitable at this
409
00:16:06,320 --> 00:16:09,120
point of time and then this is going to
410
00:16:09,120 --> 00:16:12,000
be the first group of weak hands the
411
00:16:12,000 --> 00:16:14,000
second group of weak hands is going to
412
00:16:14,000 --> 00:16:16,160
be somebody who
413
00:16:16,160 --> 00:16:18,720
someone who maybe sold this stock and
414
00:16:18,720 --> 00:16:21,360
did not participate that's number one
415
00:16:21,360 --> 00:16:24,000
secondly maybe so the stock did not uh
416
00:16:24,000 --> 00:16:26,880
uh participated but then got out
417
00:16:26,880 --> 00:16:29,199
and then as the price goes into the
418
00:16:29,199 --> 00:16:33,040
consolidation and especially goes back
419
00:16:33,040 --> 00:16:36,240
and produces some kind of
420
00:16:36,240 --> 00:16:38,399
you know move to the downside within the
421
00:16:38,399 --> 00:16:40,720
confines of the structure so this is the
422
00:16:40,720 --> 00:16:42,399
structure that we would be looking at
423
00:16:42,399 --> 00:16:43,759
the time
424
00:16:43,759 --> 00:16:45,759
the weak hands are going to see some
425
00:16:45,759 --> 00:16:48,639
value and they're going to say this was
426
00:16:48,639 --> 00:16:50,880
a leadership stock
427
00:16:50,880 --> 00:16:54,240
and i didn't really participate i didn't
428
00:16:54,240 --> 00:16:56,480
you know participate in this whole trend
429
00:16:56,480 --> 00:16:59,519
but now that we are at the support this
430
00:16:59,519 --> 00:17:00,800
is where i'm going to come in and i'm
431
00:17:00,800 --> 00:17:02,639
going to buy
432
00:17:02,639 --> 00:17:04,720
and that's how they see that value at
433
00:17:04,720 --> 00:17:06,240
this spot
434
00:17:06,240 --> 00:17:08,240
they're coming in and they're buying and
435
00:17:08,240 --> 00:17:10,559
because they don't have a lot of
436
00:17:10,559 --> 00:17:12,480
strength behind it
437
00:17:12,480 --> 00:17:15,199
the rally that is being produced is not
438
00:17:15,199 --> 00:17:17,439
that great
439
00:17:17,439 --> 00:17:19,439
and what else is happening
440
00:17:19,439 --> 00:17:21,839
even more importantly is that
441
00:17:21,839 --> 00:17:23,679
into the strength
442
00:17:23,679 --> 00:17:26,240
of weak hands at this point when they
443
00:17:26,240 --> 00:17:28,240
see that value
444
00:17:28,240 --> 00:17:30,840
institutions are going to sell into that
445
00:17:30,840 --> 00:17:32,400
strength
446
00:17:32,400 --> 00:17:35,520
so and we are seeing this later on in
447
00:17:35,520 --> 00:17:39,039
the selling where supply is increasing
448
00:17:39,039 --> 00:17:42,880
on increased volume signature and on
449
00:17:42,880 --> 00:17:44,720
increased down spread look at this
450
00:17:44,720 --> 00:17:46,400
spread right here
451
00:17:46,400 --> 00:17:48,880
this is the largest spread on all in
452
00:17:48,880 --> 00:17:50,480
this whole rally
453
00:17:50,480 --> 00:17:52,480
it just tells us that the rally is done
454
00:17:52,480 --> 00:17:54,799
and once the rally is done you instantly
455
00:17:54,799 --> 00:17:57,039
know that this is the high of the rally
456
00:17:57,039 --> 00:17:58,880
and then you start making your
457
00:17:58,880 --> 00:18:00,960
assessment and deductions as to what
458
00:18:00,960 --> 00:18:02,000
kind of
459
00:18:02,000 --> 00:18:04,480
effect was it in the relationship to the
460
00:18:04,480 --> 00:18:06,080
whole formation to the height of this
461
00:18:06,080 --> 00:18:08,240
formation and you see that it's only one
462
00:18:08,240 --> 00:18:11,280
half of the range that this rally has
463
00:18:11,280 --> 00:18:13,600
traveled and then it met so much supply
464
00:18:13,600 --> 00:18:15,760
so much selling
465
00:18:15,760 --> 00:18:18,320
okay well then we go back into the same
466
00:18:18,320 --> 00:18:20,160
area again we can't
467
00:18:20,160 --> 00:18:22,960
thinking that this is the new
468
00:18:22,960 --> 00:18:25,200
attempt to go up that is going to result
469
00:18:25,200 --> 00:18:27,280
in the overcoming of the long-term
470
00:18:27,280 --> 00:18:28,480
resistance
471
00:18:28,480 --> 00:18:31,200
and what do we see as we come to the
472
00:18:31,200 --> 00:18:33,600
same resistance point we're seeing how
473
00:18:33,600 --> 00:18:36,320
supply is still increasing locally
474
00:18:36,320 --> 00:18:38,240
and not only that
475
00:18:38,240 --> 00:18:40,400
the downward result is increasing as
476
00:18:40,400 --> 00:18:43,360
well so that becomes a reversal again
477
00:18:43,360 --> 00:18:45,440
and you start questioning we've done
478
00:18:45,440 --> 00:18:47,679
this two times already
479
00:18:47,679 --> 00:18:50,400
and every time that we've come to this
480
00:18:50,400 --> 00:18:52,720
level what happens
481
00:18:52,720 --> 00:18:54,880
some institutions are selling at the
482
00:18:54,880 --> 00:18:57,840
resistance point so what is their bias
483
00:18:57,840 --> 00:18:59,760
their biases to the downside if they are
484
00:18:59,760 --> 00:19:00,799
selling
485
00:19:00,799 --> 00:19:02,559
right we see that from the increased
486
00:19:02,559 --> 00:19:05,280
volume signature only
487
00:19:05,280 --> 00:19:08,000
you know usually big institutions will
488
00:19:08,000 --> 00:19:10,640
produce this type of signature
489
00:19:10,640 --> 00:19:14,160
so therefore we are thinking about
490
00:19:14,160 --> 00:19:18,799
confirmation of this bias and as we go
491
00:19:18,799 --> 00:19:21,679
down on the next reaction
492
00:19:21,679 --> 00:19:24,960
we are seeing a sign of weakness
493
00:19:24,960 --> 00:19:27,919
the price commits below yes it comes
494
00:19:27,919 --> 00:19:32,559
back so there is a sprint type of action
495
00:19:32,559 --> 00:19:34,640
but we know that there was selling here
496
00:19:34,640 --> 00:19:36,080
selling here
497
00:19:36,080 --> 00:19:38,640
inability to overcome one half of the
498
00:19:38,640 --> 00:19:40,320
height of the range and then a sign of
499
00:19:40,320 --> 00:19:43,440
weakness so this could be just temporary
500
00:19:43,440 --> 00:19:45,200
and we could be
501
00:19:45,200 --> 00:19:48,880
just somewhere still in phase b at this
502
00:19:48,880 --> 00:19:49,919
point
503
00:19:49,919 --> 00:19:51,679
of this whole range
504
00:19:51,679 --> 00:19:54,240
so what do we see next we see the next
505
00:19:54,240 --> 00:19:56,559
attempt and this is where we are coming
506
00:19:56,559 --> 00:20:00,720
in into one and two those two points
507
00:20:00,720 --> 00:20:02,799
and let's see what happens this is the
508
00:20:02,799 --> 00:20:05,120
highest volume signature
509
00:20:05,120 --> 00:20:07,120
on this bar and this is probably just
510
00:20:07,120 --> 00:20:09,280
some kind of event
511
00:20:09,280 --> 00:20:11,440
and there is a lot of
512
00:20:11,440 --> 00:20:12,720
optimism
513
00:20:12,720 --> 00:20:14,320
on this bar
514
00:20:14,320 --> 00:20:16,080
again we could see this from the volume
515
00:20:16,080 --> 00:20:17,679
signature and we could see this from the
516
00:20:17,679 --> 00:20:21,120
price signature this is most likely
517
00:20:21,120 --> 00:20:23,280
and this is a weekly chart this is most
518
00:20:23,280 --> 00:20:24,559
likely
519
00:20:24,559 --> 00:20:27,280
uh some kind of you know earnings and so
520
00:20:27,280 --> 00:20:28,400
on so forth
521
00:20:28,400 --> 00:20:30,960
and the biggest question that actually
522
00:20:30,960 --> 00:20:33,200
is asking here uh somewhere in the
523
00:20:33,200 --> 00:20:35,039
description
524
00:20:35,039 --> 00:20:37,919
you know he's saying that so much
525
00:20:37,919 --> 00:20:40,320
movement to the upside so much effort
526
00:20:40,320 --> 00:20:42,000
yet
527
00:20:42,000 --> 00:20:44,000
what do we do
528
00:20:44,000 --> 00:20:46,400
what is the final result
529
00:20:46,400 --> 00:20:48,480
and to understand the final result we
530
00:20:48,480 --> 00:20:51,440
need to understand the original intent
531
00:20:51,440 --> 00:20:53,120
or intention
532
00:20:53,120 --> 00:20:55,200
behind this move
533
00:20:55,200 --> 00:20:58,480
if there is so much enthusiasm behind it
534
00:20:58,480 --> 00:21:00,640
the intention was to overcome the
535
00:21:00,640 --> 00:21:03,679
previous points of resistance that were
536
00:21:03,679 --> 00:21:07,919
we were not able to overcome
537
00:21:08,960 --> 00:21:10,559
and then what do we do
538
00:21:10,559 --> 00:21:13,039
with all of this enthusiasm that is even
539
00:21:13,039 --> 00:21:16,080
more than what we've seen before we
540
00:21:16,080 --> 00:21:18,880
can't even go to the same level
541
00:21:18,880 --> 00:21:22,480
so what looks uh what what looks
542
00:21:22,480 --> 00:21:23,360
that
543
00:21:23,360 --> 00:21:25,679
what this something you know this move
544
00:21:25,679 --> 00:21:27,919
to the upside with so much strength and
545
00:21:27,919 --> 00:21:29,600
optimism
546
00:21:29,600 --> 00:21:30,720
looking
547
00:21:30,720 --> 00:21:33,840
so bullish at this point is actually
548
00:21:33,840 --> 00:21:36,000
showing us an ability
549
00:21:36,000 --> 00:21:38,320
to repeat the same bullish activity that
550
00:21:38,320 --> 00:21:39,840
we've seen before on the previous
551
00:21:39,840 --> 00:21:40,960
rallies
552
00:21:40,960 --> 00:21:43,520
is this bullish or bearish
553
00:21:43,520 --> 00:21:46,640
why didn't it reach resistance
554
00:21:46,640 --> 00:21:48,640
maybe this is the correct question to
555
00:21:48,640 --> 00:21:51,039
ask why didn't it reach resistance what
556
00:21:51,039 --> 00:21:52,720
do you guys think
557
00:21:52,720 --> 00:21:55,039
well my thought here is that it didn't
558
00:21:55,039 --> 00:21:59,200
reach resistance because someone was
559
00:21:59,200 --> 00:22:01,840
selling into the strength
560
00:22:01,840 --> 00:22:04,080
and if you think about the tactics of
561
00:22:04,080 --> 00:22:06,559
the seal here at this spot
562
00:22:06,559 --> 00:22:08,720
right at the point of the resistance
563
00:22:08,720 --> 00:22:11,679
they are selling into the strength of
564
00:22:11,679 --> 00:22:14,640
weak hands twice already
565
00:22:14,640 --> 00:22:17,120
and now they are selling for the third
566
00:22:17,120 --> 00:22:20,000
time at the lower level
567
00:22:20,000 --> 00:22:22,640
so this means automatically that the
568
00:22:22,640 --> 00:22:25,200
bias is still being confirmed as the
569
00:22:25,200 --> 00:22:27,200
downward bias
570
00:22:27,200 --> 00:22:30,320
and that now the value zone is slightly
571
00:22:30,320 --> 00:22:32,960
lower than what we've seen before so
572
00:22:32,960 --> 00:22:35,840
when point number two comes which seems
573
00:22:35,840 --> 00:22:38,320
like a very logical dimension volume
574
00:22:38,320 --> 00:22:40,559
signature so we might be thinking that
575
00:22:40,559 --> 00:22:42,799
okay supplies dimension here which is
576
00:22:42,799 --> 00:22:44,720
correct as well
577
00:22:44,720 --> 00:22:45,520
but
578
00:22:45,520 --> 00:22:48,640
uh what's what's not happening is that
579
00:22:48,640 --> 00:22:50,559
we're not going anywhere with all of
580
00:22:50,559 --> 00:22:53,520
this increase of what seems to kind of
581
00:22:53,520 --> 00:22:57,360
like an amateur eye a bullish scenario
582
00:22:57,360 --> 00:22:59,679
there is still an attempt to go up and
583
00:22:59,679 --> 00:23:02,320
yet we can't reach even the previous
584
00:23:02,320 --> 00:23:03,200
level
585
00:23:03,200 --> 00:23:06,159
so again we are just confirming the bias
586
00:23:06,159 --> 00:23:08,240
to the downside at this point of time
587
00:23:08,240 --> 00:23:10,480
and we are interpreting the increase of
588
00:23:10,480 --> 00:23:12,559
the volume signature
589
00:23:12,559 --> 00:23:14,000
as still
590
00:23:14,000 --> 00:23:17,039
and not necessarily
591
00:23:17,039 --> 00:23:21,679
a still increase of this supply over
592
00:23:21,679 --> 00:23:24,720
average supply
593
00:23:26,240 --> 00:23:28,159
and then we see that supply is
594
00:23:28,159 --> 00:23:30,960
diminishing
595
00:23:30,960 --> 00:23:33,039
over point number one
596
00:23:33,039 --> 00:23:36,880
and that tells us a different story
597
00:23:36,880 --> 00:23:40,960
it takes less of the supply to produce
598
00:23:40,960 --> 00:23:43,840
more bearish results
599
00:23:43,840 --> 00:23:45,919
and by a more bearish result i mean
600
00:23:45,919 --> 00:23:47,919
inability of the price to actually
601
00:23:47,919 --> 00:23:48,799
create
602
00:23:48,799 --> 00:23:50,799
you know even the same to touch the same
603
00:23:50,799 --> 00:23:53,360
resistance or create a higher high
604
00:23:53,360 --> 00:23:56,320
so it's a more bearish result
605
00:23:56,320 --> 00:23:59,760
on less supply what does it tell us
606
00:23:59,760 --> 00:24:01,440
it tells us that
607
00:24:01,440 --> 00:24:04,559
we don't need so much supply anymore
608
00:24:04,559 --> 00:24:07,039
to push the price down and at this point
609
00:24:07,039 --> 00:24:10,320
of time demand is so exhausted
610
00:24:10,320 --> 00:24:13,120
that all of the next rallies are not
611
00:24:13,120 --> 00:24:14,559
going to be that
612
00:24:14,559 --> 00:24:15,760
you know big
613
00:24:15,760 --> 00:24:17,679
and we see it with the next rally was
614
00:24:17,679 --> 00:24:20,400
the next rally and we're seeing how
615
00:24:20,400 --> 00:24:23,360
supply is diminishing even more and yet
616
00:24:23,360 --> 00:24:25,360
result to the downside is increasing
617
00:24:25,360 --> 00:24:26,480
even more
618
00:24:26,480 --> 00:24:29,200
so this tells us that there is a poor
619
00:24:29,200 --> 00:24:31,200
demand
620
00:24:31,200 --> 00:24:34,799
and diminishing supply signature
621
00:24:34,799 --> 00:24:37,679
on the background where
622
00:24:37,679 --> 00:24:40,480
the price
623
00:24:40,480 --> 00:24:43,919
is moving to the downside
624
00:24:43,919 --> 00:24:45,200
and that
625
00:24:45,200 --> 00:24:46,720
is
626
00:24:46,720 --> 00:24:47,760
ease
627
00:24:47,760 --> 00:24:49,840
of movement
628
00:24:49,840 --> 00:24:53,120
on dimension supply signature we are
629
00:24:53,120 --> 00:24:56,080
able to move the price down
630
00:24:56,080 --> 00:24:57,760
ease of movement
631
00:24:57,760 --> 00:25:00,960
and that gives us a timing
632
00:25:00,960 --> 00:25:04,320
to initiate the position
633
00:25:04,480 --> 00:25:07,039
why well because again
634
00:25:07,039 --> 00:25:09,760
demand is so poor we know that demand is
635
00:25:09,760 --> 00:25:11,919
not a factor anymore
636
00:25:11,919 --> 00:25:13,919
and even though supply goes down the
637
00:25:13,919 --> 00:25:16,240
price still goes down so we're just
638
00:25:16,240 --> 00:25:18,320
going to capitulate at some point and
639
00:25:18,320 --> 00:25:20,080
we're usually going to capitulate around
640
00:25:20,080 --> 00:25:22,320
the point of support so here's that
641
00:25:22,320 --> 00:25:24,640
final institutional capitulation it
642
00:25:24,640 --> 00:25:26,799
doesn't have a lot of supply signature
643
00:25:26,799 --> 00:25:28,880
behind it so that just tells us that
644
00:25:28,880 --> 00:25:30,960
most likely we're going to stop soon
645
00:25:30,960 --> 00:25:32,960
we're not going to continue
646
00:25:32,960 --> 00:25:35,520
for a long time to the downside
647
00:25:35,520 --> 00:25:39,120
all right well lee hopefully this is
648
00:25:39,120 --> 00:25:40,880
a good explanation for you and for
649
00:25:40,880 --> 00:25:44,000
everyone um so really good question this
650
00:25:44,000 --> 00:25:46,000
is not necessarily
651
00:25:46,000 --> 00:25:48,400
the question that i was expecting at
652
00:25:48,400 --> 00:25:51,919
this point but i'm really encouraged by
653
00:25:51,919 --> 00:25:54,400
the you you know
654
00:25:54,400 --> 00:25:56,960
the questions that are common and you
655
00:25:56,960 --> 00:25:59,279
know i'm really happy that we're we're
656
00:25:59,279 --> 00:26:01,360
starting with this by the way guys
657
00:26:01,360 --> 00:26:03,679
today's class is gonna go until six we
658
00:26:03,679 --> 00:26:05,440
have a lot of material so i'm kind of
659
00:26:05,440 --> 00:26:07,360
already we for the next probably five
660
00:26:07,360 --> 00:26:09,679
sessions we're gonna go up to six
661
00:26:09,679 --> 00:26:10,559
o'clock
662
00:26:10,559 --> 00:26:12,320
unless i have some kind of appointments
663
00:26:12,320 --> 00:26:14,159
arrangements after this
664
00:26:14,159 --> 00:26:16,080
lots of material so we're going to cover
665
00:26:16,080 --> 00:26:17,840
a lot today
666
00:26:17,840 --> 00:26:19,840
uh questions
667
00:26:19,840 --> 00:26:21,679
what about effort in the result if we
668
00:26:21,679 --> 00:26:24,880
see accumulation at uh at the right side
669
00:26:24,880 --> 00:26:27,600
from 2002 uh
670
00:26:27,600 --> 00:26:29,919
may to september of 2003 only one year
671
00:26:29,919 --> 00:26:33,200
are accumulating 2003 to 2005 an uptrend
672
00:26:33,200 --> 00:26:35,200
not a powerful effort
673
00:26:35,200 --> 00:26:37,679
on in an accumulation
674
00:26:37,679 --> 00:26:38,799
okay
675
00:26:38,799 --> 00:26:41,279
um
676
00:26:41,279 --> 00:26:43,039
okay so
677
00:26:43,039 --> 00:26:45,520
let me just again to understand this
678
00:26:45,520 --> 00:26:47,919
question
679
00:26:49,679 --> 00:26:53,640
so what's the question eric
680
00:26:59,919 --> 00:27:01,279
okay so
681
00:27:01,279 --> 00:27:02,320
this
682
00:27:02,320 --> 00:27:04,240
2005
683
00:27:04,240 --> 00:27:07,440
and this yeah i'm not sure if i
684
00:27:07,440 --> 00:27:09,279
understand the question eric let's just
685
00:27:09,279 --> 00:27:10,720
kind of rephrase it let's just think
686
00:27:10,720 --> 00:27:13,360
about this
687
00:27:13,679 --> 00:27:15,290
okay meanwhile um
688
00:27:15,290 --> 00:27:18,240
[Music]
689
00:27:18,240 --> 00:27:20,640
small time accumulating you mean this
690
00:27:20,640 --> 00:27:22,960
area right here
691
00:27:22,960 --> 00:27:25,679
as a cause
692
00:27:25,840 --> 00:27:26,880
or this
693
00:27:26,880 --> 00:27:28,799
as a course
694
00:27:28,799 --> 00:27:29,760
okay
695
00:27:29,760 --> 00:27:32,240
so um
696
00:27:32,240 --> 00:27:33,679
well
697
00:27:33,679 --> 00:27:35,520
we could definitely apply something like
698
00:27:35,520 --> 00:27:37,919
you know p and f try to see what kind of
699
00:27:37,919 --> 00:27:40,080
you know objective we're gonna see here
700
00:27:40,080 --> 00:27:42,159
we could see if this could match this
701
00:27:42,159 --> 00:27:43,760
objective as well
702
00:27:43,760 --> 00:27:46,640
um at this point of time you know uh
703
00:27:46,640 --> 00:27:48,480
we're not talking about the pnf i'm
704
00:27:48,480 --> 00:27:51,120
going to give you some references but
705
00:27:51,120 --> 00:27:52,399
you know for
706
00:27:52,399 --> 00:27:54,320
for those of you who are not familiar
707
00:27:54,320 --> 00:27:57,039
you know with
708
00:27:57,039 --> 00:28:00,159
pnf please go to our website there are
709
00:28:00,159 --> 00:28:02,640
a couple of things that you could do on
710
00:28:02,640 --> 00:28:04,720
the youtube channel
711
00:28:04,720 --> 00:28:07,279
the youtube channel has two videos right
712
00:28:07,279 --> 00:28:10,080
now by bruce on pnf
713
00:28:10,080 --> 00:28:13,600
those are basic videos
714
00:28:14,399 --> 00:28:15,200
so
715
00:28:15,200 --> 00:28:17,919
go there and then after that go to our
716
00:28:17,919 --> 00:28:21,200
website like of analytics.com and they
717
00:28:21,200 --> 00:28:23,039
are on demand
718
00:28:23,039 --> 00:28:25,120
products you could
719
00:28:25,120 --> 00:28:29,640
find part one and part two
720
00:28:30,559 --> 00:28:32,880
uh of uh
721
00:28:32,880 --> 00:28:34,880
the two courses that we conducted
722
00:28:34,880 --> 00:28:36,880
together with bruce on the pnf so i
723
00:28:36,880 --> 00:28:39,360
would recommend just that path
724
00:28:39,360 --> 00:28:42,000
okay great
725
00:28:42,000 --> 00:28:46,000
let's move on and let's just um
726
00:28:46,000 --> 00:28:49,840
uh go through the material for today so
727
00:28:49,840 --> 00:28:52,399
today what are we going to discuss today
728
00:28:52,399 --> 00:28:54,000
this is going to be the major work for
729
00:28:54,000 --> 00:28:58,000
us today to go through the um home depot
730
00:28:58,000 --> 00:28:59,679
homework review
731
00:28:59,679 --> 00:29:03,039
there will be a lot of
732
00:29:03,039 --> 00:29:05,200
questions that i will answer
733
00:29:05,200 --> 00:29:07,120
this is the first well not the first
734
00:29:07,120 --> 00:29:09,200
time but this is the time where
735
00:29:09,200 --> 00:29:12,640
i'm expecting a lot of volunteers
736
00:29:12,640 --> 00:29:14,320
that we are going to put on the chart
737
00:29:14,320 --> 00:29:15,760
and we're just going to go through your
738
00:29:15,760 --> 00:29:17,760
logic and then we're going to start
739
00:29:17,760 --> 00:29:20,799
adjusting that logic as to how are we
740
00:29:20,799 --> 00:29:23,279
viewing the chart how we identifying
741
00:29:23,279 --> 00:29:25,440
specific events how we're thinking about
742
00:29:25,440 --> 00:29:27,760
labeling and then how do we think about
743
00:29:27,760 --> 00:29:29,600
the tactics and where would we be
744
00:29:29,600 --> 00:29:30,799
thinking about
745
00:29:30,799 --> 00:29:32,480
opening the position and so and so forth
746
00:29:32,480 --> 00:29:35,600
so this might take even two sessions
747
00:29:35,600 --> 00:29:38,000
uh but we will do this as we go through
748
00:29:38,000 --> 00:29:41,520
the review i'm gonna after each of the
749
00:29:41,520 --> 00:29:43,919
slide each of the exercise you know
750
00:29:43,919 --> 00:29:44,880
we're gonna
751
00:29:44,880 --> 00:29:46,880
have some kind of theoretical material
752
00:29:46,880 --> 00:29:48,960
and the main thing that i want you guys
753
00:29:48,960 --> 00:29:51,039
to think about and this is what i see in
754
00:29:51,039 --> 00:29:53,279
your homeworks is the face boundaries
755
00:29:53,279 --> 00:29:54,480
that's number one
756
00:29:54,480 --> 00:29:57,360
secondly phase c identification and then
757
00:29:57,360 --> 00:29:59,039
everything else you know will definitely
758
00:29:59,039 --> 00:30:00,640
cover everything else
759
00:30:00,640 --> 00:30:02,559
if we have time
760
00:30:02,559 --> 00:30:04,720
we will talk about the distribution if
761
00:30:04,720 --> 00:30:06,880
we don't have time i'm gonna give you
762
00:30:06,880 --> 00:30:08,399
that
763
00:30:08,399 --> 00:30:10,399
homework on the distribution
764
00:30:10,399 --> 00:30:12,000
i'm going to give you the slides on the
765
00:30:12,000 --> 00:30:14,080
distribution your homework will be to
766
00:30:14,080 --> 00:30:16,720
read those slides through to understand
767
00:30:16,720 --> 00:30:18,399
all of the work of events in the
768
00:30:18,399 --> 00:30:20,880
distribution to unders and to know the
769
00:30:20,880 --> 00:30:22,559
characteristics
770
00:30:22,559 --> 00:30:24,080
of those events
771
00:30:24,080 --> 00:30:26,000
uh and then apply them to the homework
772
00:30:26,000 --> 00:30:28,000
and then we're gonna do the review
773
00:30:28,000 --> 00:30:29,919
uh the same review as we've done with
774
00:30:29,919 --> 00:30:32,000
the whole with home depot
775
00:30:32,000 --> 00:30:33,760
uh most likely maybe not in session
776
00:30:33,760 --> 00:30:35,440
number four but maybe session number
777
00:30:35,440 --> 00:30:36,399
five
778
00:30:36,399 --> 00:30:37,840
um
779
00:30:37,840 --> 00:30:38,960
so
780
00:30:38,960 --> 00:30:41,679
that's going to be the plan for today
781
00:30:41,679 --> 00:30:43,360
all right with that
782
00:30:43,360 --> 00:30:46,320
let's start our homework and i need a
783
00:30:46,320 --> 00:30:49,600
volunteer so say yes and i'm gonna mute
784
00:30:49,600 --> 00:30:51,840
you
785
00:30:52,080 --> 00:30:56,399
and let's see how that's gonna go okay
786
00:30:56,640 --> 00:30:58,799
let's go to
787
00:30:58,799 --> 00:31:00,080
um
788
00:31:00,080 --> 00:31:02,480
rami
789
00:31:02,720 --> 00:31:05,679
am i pronouncing your name correctly
790
00:31:05,679 --> 00:31:08,960
rama is fine rama okay rama almost like
791
00:31:08,960 --> 00:31:12,880
roma like my name is roma actually
792
00:31:12,880 --> 00:31:15,360
right my short name so drama that's
793
00:31:15,360 --> 00:31:17,200
that's very close okay great
794
00:31:17,200 --> 00:31:19,679
all right so let's look we have three
795
00:31:19,679 --> 00:31:21,519
trading ranges by the way guys if you
796
00:31:21,519 --> 00:31:23,200
haven't noticed some of you have not
797
00:31:23,200 --> 00:31:25,279
noticed there is another one that i kind
798
00:31:25,279 --> 00:31:27,840
of you know wanted you to identify
799
00:31:27,840 --> 00:31:30,799
um and by the way uh rama before we
800
00:31:30,799 --> 00:31:33,039
start doing this let me guys show you
801
00:31:33,039 --> 00:31:34,480
really quickly
802
00:31:34,480 --> 00:31:36,080
something that
803
00:31:36,080 --> 00:31:38,799
[Music]
804
00:31:38,799 --> 00:31:41,519
could be helpful to everyone
805
00:31:41,519 --> 00:31:42,559
so
806
00:31:42,559 --> 00:31:44,880
i thought that
807
00:31:44,880 --> 00:31:48,799
this idea of having homework slides as a
808
00:31:48,799 --> 00:31:50,640
separate file
809
00:31:50,640 --> 00:31:53,440
that was a suggestion by one of you i
810
00:31:53,440 --> 00:31:55,919
really appreciate this because i think
811
00:31:55,919 --> 00:31:58,480
it saved a lot of time for a lot of you
812
00:31:58,480 --> 00:32:00,399
guys and i know how difficult it is to
813
00:32:00,399 --> 00:32:02,640
do the first homework especially if you
814
00:32:02,640 --> 00:32:04,960
haven't worked with you know power
815
00:32:04,960 --> 00:32:07,279
charging approach i'm sorry power
816
00:32:07,279 --> 00:32:09,440
charging with um
817
00:32:09,440 --> 00:32:12,399
power points with uh
818
00:32:12,399 --> 00:32:15,760
pdfs and so on so forth but i was really
819
00:32:15,760 --> 00:32:17,679
pleased to see that everybody is just
820
00:32:17,679 --> 00:32:20,559
kind of like getting a handle on that so
821
00:32:20,559 --> 00:32:23,919
i want to show you a little bit of what
822
00:32:23,919 --> 00:32:26,480
i do with power charging and it will be
823
00:32:26,480 --> 00:32:29,039
really quick so when you receive a slide
824
00:32:29,039 --> 00:32:31,679
from me like this in in powerpoint why
825
00:32:31,679 --> 00:32:34,000
am i saying power charging in powerpoint
826
00:32:34,000 --> 00:32:36,640
um you have multiple options
827
00:32:36,640 --> 00:32:38,880
here for instance um under the first so
828
00:32:38,880 --> 00:32:40,000
you're going to be a
829
00:32:40,000 --> 00:32:42,240
home tab and then look at all of this
830
00:32:42,240 --> 00:32:45,200
small icons right here so for instance i
831
00:32:45,200 --> 00:32:47,519
could click this icon right here and i
832
00:32:47,519 --> 00:32:49,039
could create any
833
00:32:49,039 --> 00:32:51,840
type of text that i want i could move
834
00:32:51,840 --> 00:32:54,720
this text and put it you know
835
00:32:54,720 --> 00:32:56,720
anywhere i want so for instance
836
00:32:56,720 --> 00:32:58,240
something like this i'm
837
00:32:58,240 --> 00:33:00,000
looking at the up thrust and i'm saying
838
00:33:00,000 --> 00:33:01,519
this is enough thrust
839
00:33:01,519 --> 00:33:03,919
you can copy that you could create the
840
00:33:03,919 --> 00:33:06,480
new one you could change the color of it
841
00:33:06,480 --> 00:33:08,799
whatever you guys want to do then you
842
00:33:08,799 --> 00:33:11,440
have you know any type of lines that you
843
00:33:11,440 --> 00:33:13,600
want to create
844
00:33:13,600 --> 00:33:15,360
you can copy them
845
00:33:15,360 --> 00:33:18,240
paste them here is your trend
846
00:33:18,240 --> 00:33:22,240
um what else phases so i like to do this
847
00:33:22,240 --> 00:33:24,720
for phases
848
00:33:24,720 --> 00:33:27,440
just to identify
849
00:33:27,440 --> 00:33:29,120
where phase is
850
00:33:29,120 --> 00:33:30,480
and then
851
00:33:30,480 --> 00:33:32,159
you know change the maybe like the
852
00:33:32,159 --> 00:33:34,080
weight and maybe even
853
00:33:34,080 --> 00:33:36,159
change the way how it looks
854
00:33:36,159 --> 00:33:39,200
and just say okay uh here is maybe like
855
00:33:39,200 --> 00:33:41,440
phase a somewhere here
856
00:33:41,440 --> 00:33:45,039
right and then just write it down here
857
00:33:45,039 --> 00:33:47,360
uh and i could change the
858
00:33:47,360 --> 00:33:49,039
the size of it
859
00:33:49,039 --> 00:33:51,440
and so on and so forth
860
00:33:51,440 --> 00:33:54,159
so there are quite a few useful things
861
00:33:54,159 --> 00:33:56,320
that you could do here with the
862
00:33:56,320 --> 00:34:00,880
powerpoint and it's actually quite easy
863
00:34:00,880 --> 00:34:02,960
once you get a handle on all of those
864
00:34:02,960 --> 00:34:04,159
things
865
00:34:04,159 --> 00:34:06,080
so let's just practice let's just kind
866
00:34:06,080 --> 00:34:09,440
of like go with this um you know with uh
867
00:34:09,440 --> 00:34:10,800
next homework
868
00:34:10,800 --> 00:34:12,879
um and hopefully it will be easier for
869
00:34:12,879 --> 00:34:14,320
you guys to
870
00:34:14,320 --> 00:34:15,839
uh to use it
871
00:34:15,839 --> 00:34:18,320
all right having said this
872
00:34:18,320 --> 00:34:21,199
rama let's come back to you
873
00:34:21,199 --> 00:34:24,079
and let's look at trading range number
874
00:34:24,079 --> 00:34:25,280
one
875
00:34:25,280 --> 00:34:30,239
um it's this one right here so um
876
00:34:30,239 --> 00:34:33,119
one of the earliest question in labeling
877
00:34:33,119 --> 00:34:35,599
that i ask students is
878
00:34:35,599 --> 00:34:37,839
i want them to understand that when you
879
00:34:37,839 --> 00:34:39,040
look at the
880
00:34:39,040 --> 00:34:42,399
uh historical chart
881
00:34:42,399 --> 00:34:43,760
uh
882
00:34:43,760 --> 00:34:47,359
historical chart now you um know already
883
00:34:47,359 --> 00:34:50,879
what the bias of the trading range is
884
00:34:50,879 --> 00:34:54,320
and at this point in the course this is
885
00:34:54,320 --> 00:34:57,680
exactly what i want you to do i want you
886
00:34:57,680 --> 00:35:00,000
i want your minds not to think about the
887
00:35:00,000 --> 00:35:01,520
bias first
888
00:35:01,520 --> 00:35:03,520
i want you to understand that we have
889
00:35:03,520 --> 00:35:06,000
been in the accumulation
890
00:35:06,000 --> 00:35:08,880
and that you need to label accumulation
891
00:35:08,880 --> 00:35:11,760
correctly this is the first task
892
00:35:11,760 --> 00:35:14,480
as we progress to
893
00:35:14,480 --> 00:35:16,640
month number two
894
00:35:16,640 --> 00:35:19,280
that's when i'm gonna start closing off
895
00:35:19,280 --> 00:35:22,160
the chart and then moving to the right
896
00:35:22,160 --> 00:35:25,520
and unfolding the chart um and you know
897
00:35:25,520 --> 00:35:29,200
as like swings or bars occurs and then
898
00:35:29,200 --> 00:35:30,880
you will have to
899
00:35:30,880 --> 00:35:33,440
analyze the bias and the timing and so
900
00:35:33,440 --> 00:35:35,359
on so forth but for now
901
00:35:35,359 --> 00:35:37,200
this is what we do we know that this is
902
00:35:37,200 --> 00:35:38,800
an accumulation
903
00:35:38,800 --> 00:35:41,200
so in accumulation
904
00:35:41,200 --> 00:35:43,280
the biggest question that i have on on
905
00:35:43,280 --> 00:35:44,720
labeling
906
00:35:44,720 --> 00:35:47,920
what catches your eye aroma that is so
907
00:35:47,920 --> 00:35:50,400
distinctive distinctively
908
00:35:50,400 --> 00:35:52,320
different than anything else that you
909
00:35:52,320 --> 00:35:56,079
could identify right away
910
00:35:56,079 --> 00:35:57,440
um
911
00:35:57,440 --> 00:35:59,920
the arrest of the
912
00:35:59,920 --> 00:36:02,480
the descent of the price downwards the
913
00:36:02,480 --> 00:36:04,640
the rest of the downward movement of the
914
00:36:04,640 --> 00:36:06,000
price
915
00:36:06,000 --> 00:36:08,400
okay so what about it
916
00:36:08,400 --> 00:36:11,599
and uh the price uh
917
00:36:11,599 --> 00:36:14,320
failing to go below that particular
918
00:36:14,320 --> 00:36:16,800
level and then
919
00:36:16,800 --> 00:36:18,160
and rising
920
00:36:18,160 --> 00:36:20,560
from that level onwards defining the
921
00:36:20,560 --> 00:36:22,800
level of support okay well let's take
922
00:36:22,800 --> 00:36:24,240
that thought and let's just kind of
923
00:36:24,240 --> 00:36:28,240
develop this so we were in the downtrend
924
00:36:28,240 --> 00:36:30,240
and then we stopped
925
00:36:30,240 --> 00:36:32,880
that downtrend at this spot right here
926
00:36:32,880 --> 00:36:35,320
and then after that we went into the
927
00:36:35,320 --> 00:36:37,520
non-consolidating environment we've
928
00:36:37,520 --> 00:36:40,240
talked about this in the last session so
929
00:36:40,240 --> 00:36:42,960
what is this stop in action how would we
930
00:36:42,960 --> 00:36:43,920
call it
931
00:36:43,920 --> 00:36:46,400
how would we call this event
932
00:36:46,400 --> 00:36:51,200
selling climax okay selling climax uh sc
933
00:36:51,200 --> 00:36:54,000
um other characteristics of the selling
934
00:36:54,000 --> 00:36:57,040
climax that we could identify here to
935
00:36:57,040 --> 00:36:58,880
confirm that indeed this was a selling
936
00:36:58,880 --> 00:37:01,119
climax
937
00:37:01,119 --> 00:37:02,320
uh
938
00:37:02,320 --> 00:37:03,599
the
939
00:37:03,599 --> 00:37:05,920
range of the price bars in other words
940
00:37:05,920 --> 00:37:07,440
the spread
941
00:37:07,440 --> 00:37:08,960
is wide
942
00:37:08,960 --> 00:37:12,640
and there are multiple such bars
943
00:37:12,640 --> 00:37:13,440
and
944
00:37:13,440 --> 00:37:16,480
which essentially indicates to me that
945
00:37:16,480 --> 00:37:20,839
the the momentum to the downside
946
00:37:20,839 --> 00:37:23,920
and um
947
00:37:23,920 --> 00:37:27,119
does it look panicky does it look like
948
00:37:27,119 --> 00:37:29,040
somebody wants to get rid of those dogs
949
00:37:29,040 --> 00:37:30,320
right away
950
00:37:30,320 --> 00:37:32,079
absolutely yeah
951
00:37:32,079 --> 00:37:35,200
so there is some kind of climactic run
952
00:37:35,200 --> 00:37:37,359
right that we are observing
953
00:37:37,359 --> 00:37:40,640
okay great yeah we know that you know
954
00:37:40,640 --> 00:37:42,880
from in hindsight that the price has
955
00:37:42,880 --> 00:37:44,880
stopped here this is the first spot so
956
00:37:44,880 --> 00:37:46,400
usually it's going to be associated with
957
00:37:46,400 --> 00:37:48,240
that climactic action with the selling
958
00:37:48,240 --> 00:37:50,560
climax okay if this is a selling climax
959
00:37:50,560 --> 00:37:53,520
then the next rally is going to be what
960
00:37:53,520 --> 00:37:56,160
automatic rally
961
00:37:56,160 --> 00:37:57,760
and then the next
962
00:37:57,760 --> 00:38:00,320
low is going to be what would be a
963
00:38:00,320 --> 00:38:01,920
secondary test
964
00:38:01,920 --> 00:38:04,640
and that would conclude which phase
965
00:38:04,640 --> 00:38:05,920
phase a
966
00:38:05,920 --> 00:38:07,359
and the
967
00:38:07,359 --> 00:38:10,560
intention behind phase a is what
968
00:38:10,560 --> 00:38:14,079
uh the intention is to
969
00:38:14,079 --> 00:38:16,720
stop the downward movement and then the
970
00:38:16,720 --> 00:38:18,240
beginning of a
971
00:38:18,240 --> 00:38:21,040
potential trading range excellent how
972
00:38:21,040 --> 00:38:23,200
else would we be
973
00:38:23,200 --> 00:38:25,520
uh interpreting or call in this
974
00:38:25,520 --> 00:38:28,480
automatic rally and the subsequent
975
00:38:28,480 --> 00:38:30,640
secondary test that
976
00:38:30,640 --> 00:38:34,800
is a successful secondary test
977
00:38:35,200 --> 00:38:36,480
um
978
00:38:36,480 --> 00:38:37,680
the
979
00:38:37,680 --> 00:38:39,280
secondary test
980
00:38:39,280 --> 00:38:41,280
and the automatic rally
981
00:38:41,280 --> 00:38:43,920
would have
982
00:38:44,079 --> 00:38:46,880
volume signatures that would suggest
983
00:38:46,880 --> 00:38:49,520
that it's more likely
984
00:38:49,520 --> 00:38:52,000
to be an evolving trading range
985
00:38:52,000 --> 00:38:53,520
but also
986
00:38:53,520 --> 00:38:54,720
yes
987
00:38:54,720 --> 00:38:56,960
absolutely and here again we're going
988
00:38:56,960 --> 00:38:58,000
from
989
00:38:58,000 --> 00:38:59,440
a down
990
00:38:59,440 --> 00:39:02,720
trend environment into a trading range
991
00:39:02,720 --> 00:39:04,880
environment something should happen
992
00:39:04,880 --> 00:39:06,079
right here
993
00:39:06,079 --> 00:39:08,560
some kind of change how are we calling
994
00:39:08,560 --> 00:39:09,599
that
995
00:39:09,599 --> 00:39:12,079
uh that that would be
996
00:39:12,079 --> 00:39:15,119
the price failing to continue to go
997
00:39:15,119 --> 00:39:17,119
upwards in other words the automatic
998
00:39:17,119 --> 00:39:20,800
rally being limited by a price level
999
00:39:20,800 --> 00:39:23,599
which defines the resistance okay so
1000
00:39:23,599 --> 00:39:25,520
that's great that's also another great
1001
00:39:25,520 --> 00:39:28,079
point so automatic rally will define an
1002
00:39:28,079 --> 00:39:30,720
area of the resistance i'm sorry the
1003
00:39:30,720 --> 00:39:33,040
level of the resistance and then selling
1004
00:39:33,040 --> 00:39:35,599
climax will define the
1005
00:39:35,599 --> 00:39:38,160
level of the support and we would be
1006
00:39:38,160 --> 00:39:39,760
thinking that the price should
1007
00:39:39,760 --> 00:39:42,960
consolidate around the mean in this area
1008
00:39:42,960 --> 00:39:45,280
um and be contained
1009
00:39:45,280 --> 00:39:46,800
majority of the price should be
1010
00:39:46,800 --> 00:39:48,880
contained within this two
1011
00:39:48,880 --> 00:39:52,720
you know two two levels and it is um so
1012
00:39:52,720 --> 00:39:54,000
that's great
1013
00:39:54,000 --> 00:39:56,880
the question that i'm also asking
1014
00:39:56,880 --> 00:40:00,400
is that switch between the downtrend to
1015
00:40:00,400 --> 00:40:03,280
a consolidating environment when we look
1016
00:40:03,280 --> 00:40:06,160
at the rally uh even the automatic rally
1017
00:40:06,160 --> 00:40:07,839
itself and we could see
1018
00:40:07,839 --> 00:40:11,280
even going into the up thrust right here
1019
00:40:11,280 --> 00:40:13,440
in a potential phase b
1020
00:40:13,440 --> 00:40:16,079
um this is is this the largest rally
1021
00:40:16,079 --> 00:40:19,119
that we've seen so far
1022
00:40:19,200 --> 00:40:21,520
um
1023
00:40:22,480 --> 00:40:25,680
um no on the way down this is the the
1024
00:40:25,680 --> 00:40:27,839
third such rally and
1025
00:40:27,839 --> 00:40:30,800
uh that we have seen so far i'm not sure
1026
00:40:30,800 --> 00:40:32,960
about that so if this is the high of
1027
00:40:32,960 --> 00:40:36,079
this multiple downside right so we have
1028
00:40:36,079 --> 00:40:38,160
rally number one we have rally number
1029
00:40:38,160 --> 00:40:39,599
two
1030
00:40:39,599 --> 00:40:41,520
there are quite a few here so all of
1031
00:40:41,520 --> 00:40:43,680
this too and then look at this rally
1032
00:40:43,680 --> 00:40:45,839
right here yeah is this the largest
1033
00:40:45,839 --> 00:40:47,440
rally out of all of the rallies that
1034
00:40:47,440 --> 00:40:49,680
i've uh identified here
1035
00:40:49,680 --> 00:40:52,800
right yes i would agree yeah yes so the
1036
00:40:52,800 --> 00:40:55,040
rally has increased
1037
00:40:55,040 --> 00:40:57,359
right the distance
1038
00:40:57,359 --> 00:40:59,680
of the rally has increased and that
1039
00:40:59,680 --> 00:41:02,160
produced some kind of change
1040
00:41:02,160 --> 00:41:05,359
it's a change of character yeah yes yes
1041
00:41:05,359 --> 00:41:07,440
so this is where i'm kind of like trying
1042
00:41:07,440 --> 00:41:09,760
to go with you here so a change of
1043
00:41:09,760 --> 00:41:12,720
character now we need to confirm it how
1044
00:41:12,720 --> 00:41:14,640
do we confirm it well
1045
00:41:14,640 --> 00:41:15,359
we
1046
00:41:15,359 --> 00:41:19,960
look at the climactic run
1047
00:41:20,000 --> 00:41:22,079
we are comparing it to the next rally
1048
00:41:22,079 --> 00:41:23,680
that comes after the
1049
00:41:23,680 --> 00:41:25,920
uh change of character rally
1050
00:41:25,920 --> 00:41:27,920
the next decline that takes place the
1051
00:41:27,920 --> 00:41:29,599
next decline and then
1052
00:41:29,599 --> 00:41:33,200
we see that again the distance
1053
00:41:33,200 --> 00:41:35,040
is diminishing
1054
00:41:35,040 --> 00:41:36,800
we're seeing how the spread might be
1055
00:41:36,800 --> 00:41:39,280
dimension as well we're having a high
1056
00:41:39,280 --> 00:41:42,000
low right here in this area so that
1057
00:41:42,000 --> 00:41:44,160
confirms that change of character and
1058
00:41:44,160 --> 00:41:45,680
the change of character is going to be
1059
00:41:45,680 --> 00:41:47,920
all about well something different
1060
00:41:47,920 --> 00:41:50,400
happens here in comparison to this or
1061
00:41:50,400 --> 00:41:52,319
this
1062
00:41:52,319 --> 00:41:54,560
every time we either have a very weak
1063
00:41:54,560 --> 00:41:58,240
rally and then a break to the downside
1064
00:41:58,240 --> 00:42:00,480
weak rally and then a break to the
1065
00:42:00,480 --> 00:42:03,359
downside here we have
1066
00:42:03,359 --> 00:42:05,839
a much better rally
1067
00:42:05,839 --> 00:42:08,319
so something is different
1068
00:42:08,319 --> 00:42:09,599
and then
1069
00:42:09,599 --> 00:42:11,599
we don't have the next break to the
1070
00:42:11,599 --> 00:42:12,800
downside
1071
00:42:12,800 --> 00:42:14,880
or even in some instances we might have
1072
00:42:14,880 --> 00:42:16,720
a small break and then the price will
1073
00:42:16,720 --> 00:42:20,319
come back into the trading range yeah
1074
00:42:20,319 --> 00:42:22,240
so this is the change of character this
1075
00:42:22,240 --> 00:42:24,480
is where everything changes for the
1076
00:42:24,480 --> 00:42:27,520
downtrend and we might expect a trading
1077
00:42:27,520 --> 00:42:28,720
range and it's always going to be
1078
00:42:28,720 --> 00:42:32,560
associated on the way in
1079
00:42:33,760 --> 00:42:34,640
yes
1080
00:42:34,640 --> 00:42:35,599
excellent
1081
00:42:35,599 --> 00:42:38,319
okay so now that we know
1082
00:42:38,319 --> 00:42:41,280
where phase a is and by the way
1083
00:42:41,280 --> 00:42:43,119
another you know for those of you who
1084
00:42:43,119 --> 00:42:45,040
are more advanced you might have a
1085
00:42:45,040 --> 00:42:46,800
question here and i'm actually very
1086
00:42:46,800 --> 00:42:48,800
surprised that nobody's asking it right
1087
00:42:48,800 --> 00:42:49,760
now
1088
00:42:49,760 --> 00:42:51,920
um automatic rally
1089
00:42:51,920 --> 00:42:54,720
and automatic rally could it be that we
1090
00:42:54,720 --> 00:42:56,800
could have you know this type of
1091
00:42:56,800 --> 00:42:58,720
labeling
1092
00:42:58,720 --> 00:43:01,920
and i'd say that i i would be totally
1093
00:43:01,920 --> 00:43:04,240
okay with this right so
1094
00:43:04,240 --> 00:43:07,839
uh because we have more of this rally
1095
00:43:07,839 --> 00:43:10,480
in this secondary test
1096
00:43:10,480 --> 00:43:11,440
that
1097
00:43:11,440 --> 00:43:13,599
is more of the function of the selling
1098
00:43:13,599 --> 00:43:15,280
climax itself
1099
00:43:15,280 --> 00:43:17,440
and then just a continuation of this
1100
00:43:17,440 --> 00:43:21,280
rally to the upside um you know i could
1101
00:43:21,280 --> 00:43:23,599
label this as an up thrust action right
1102
00:43:23,599 --> 00:43:26,000
here in phase b but you could also label
1103
00:43:26,000 --> 00:43:28,480
this as a much larger
1104
00:43:28,480 --> 00:43:31,040
automatic rally and then your secondary
1105
00:43:31,040 --> 00:43:32,800
test is going to be somewhere here in
1106
00:43:32,800 --> 00:43:35,680
this area and this could be a phase a
1107
00:43:35,680 --> 00:43:36,480
now
1108
00:43:36,480 --> 00:43:40,079
the biggest question here is well what
1109
00:43:40,079 --> 00:43:41,839
does it mean i mean like it looks like
1110
00:43:41,839 --> 00:43:43,520
so discretionary
1111
00:43:43,520 --> 00:43:45,599
but the biggest question here is not
1112
00:43:45,599 --> 00:43:47,520
actually about the labeling
1113
00:43:47,520 --> 00:43:49,680
my biggest question to you all of you
1114
00:43:49,680 --> 00:43:51,839
guys at this point is
1115
00:43:51,839 --> 00:43:55,280
does it really matter to your trading
1116
00:43:55,280 --> 00:43:59,119
how you label phase a
1117
00:43:59,359 --> 00:44:03,119
um no why
1118
00:44:04,160 --> 00:44:07,200
because it we are just looking at the
1119
00:44:07,200 --> 00:44:09,760
pattern as it is evolving the patterns
1120
00:44:09,760 --> 00:44:11,359
the nature and the pattern of the
1121
00:44:11,359 --> 00:44:13,440
rallies and the declines
1122
00:44:13,440 --> 00:44:16,640
where will you be a trigonometry
1123
00:44:16,640 --> 00:44:20,160
uh i would be trading at the uh the
1124
00:44:20,160 --> 00:44:21,520
phase c
1125
00:44:21,520 --> 00:44:23,440
or d
1126
00:44:23,440 --> 00:44:26,560
as the uh trading range as the price
1127
00:44:26,560 --> 00:44:28,640
gets out of the trading range and the
1128
00:44:28,640 --> 00:44:30,480
new trend emerges that's where i would
1129
00:44:30,480 --> 00:44:32,640
be trading so somewhere here in this
1130
00:44:32,640 --> 00:44:34,640
area maybe even better maybe like
1131
00:44:34,640 --> 00:44:37,119
somewhere here in this whole area why
1132
00:44:37,119 --> 00:44:38,880
because it's always going to be to the
1133
00:44:38,880 --> 00:44:40,560
right of the trading range where we're
1134
00:44:40,560 --> 00:44:43,119
going to originate our trades
1135
00:44:43,119 --> 00:44:45,920
right so does it really matter how we
1136
00:44:45,920 --> 00:44:47,680
label phase a
1137
00:44:47,680 --> 00:44:48,800
i see
1138
00:44:48,800 --> 00:44:51,119
i see a lot of this kind of like this
1139
00:44:51,119 --> 00:44:52,480
mental
1140
00:44:52,480 --> 00:44:53,599
you know
1141
00:44:53,599 --> 00:44:55,119
resistance
1142
00:44:55,119 --> 00:44:57,839
i have to label everything correctly
1143
00:44:57,839 --> 00:45:00,079
you have to trade everything correctly
1144
00:45:00,079 --> 00:45:01,839
you don't have to label everything
1145
00:45:01,839 --> 00:45:03,599
correctly i'm going to go even further
1146
00:45:03,599 --> 00:45:05,440
with this statement
1147
00:45:05,440 --> 00:45:07,839
you have to trade correctly you don't
1148
00:45:07,839 --> 00:45:10,079
have to analyze everything correctly and
1149
00:45:10,079 --> 00:45:12,160
that is counter-intuitive
1150
00:45:12,160 --> 00:45:14,880
because we always think that
1151
00:45:14,880 --> 00:45:15,760
by
1152
00:45:15,760 --> 00:45:18,560
making a good analysis that will lead to
1153
00:45:18,560 --> 00:45:21,359
a good trade not necessarily sometimes
1154
00:45:21,359 --> 00:45:22,319
my
1155
00:45:22,319 --> 00:45:24,800
you know bad analysis leads me to much
1156
00:45:24,800 --> 00:45:26,560
better trade
1157
00:45:26,560 --> 00:45:29,440
than the trade that i've analyzed you
1158
00:45:29,440 --> 00:45:30,880
know
1159
00:45:30,880 --> 00:45:34,079
a lot why is this happening well because
1160
00:45:34,079 --> 00:45:36,319
you know markets are unpredictable and
1161
00:45:36,319 --> 00:45:37,760
the only thing that you could really
1162
00:45:37,760 --> 00:45:40,000
control is just your actions
1163
00:45:40,000 --> 00:45:42,240
so if i see some kind of mistake
1164
00:45:42,240 --> 00:45:44,960
analytical mistake that i've made and
1165
00:45:44,960 --> 00:45:47,200
the market shows to me right away that
1166
00:45:47,200 --> 00:45:49,680
you are wrong in your analysis i could
1167
00:45:49,680 --> 00:45:52,400
mentally make a switch and say i was
1168
00:45:52,400 --> 00:45:55,280
wrong if i was wrong what is the correct
1169
00:45:55,280 --> 00:45:57,920
interpretation well it's different could
1170
00:45:57,920 --> 00:46:01,119
i take a trade on that yes i'm still in
1171
00:46:01,119 --> 00:46:03,599
that zone where i could take a trade on
1172
00:46:03,599 --> 00:46:07,040
that so therefore you know you could um
1173
00:46:07,040 --> 00:46:09,440
you could use it like this you know like
1174
00:46:09,440 --> 00:46:10,800
this mental
1175
00:46:10,800 --> 00:46:14,560
mental path okay so let's assume that
1176
00:46:14,560 --> 00:46:16,560
we're going to go with the original
1177
00:46:16,560 --> 00:46:18,400
phase a
1178
00:46:18,400 --> 00:46:19,280
cell in
1179
00:46:19,280 --> 00:46:22,640
climax automatic rally secondary test
1180
00:46:22,640 --> 00:46:24,800
then i already mentioned up thrust
1181
00:46:24,800 --> 00:46:27,520
action in phase b
1182
00:46:27,520 --> 00:46:30,000
uh so rama let me ask you this
1183
00:46:30,000 --> 00:46:30,960
question
1184
00:46:30,960 --> 00:46:33,119
what is the next point in this trading
1185
00:46:33,119 --> 00:46:35,200
range that attracts your attention that
1186
00:46:35,200 --> 00:46:37,599
you could identify right away and you
1187
00:46:37,599 --> 00:46:39,839
can say i know what this is
1188
00:46:39,839 --> 00:46:42,480
the most obvious thing
1189
00:46:42,480 --> 00:46:43,760
uh
1190
00:46:43,760 --> 00:46:47,040
the most obvious thing is the uh
1191
00:46:47,040 --> 00:46:50,319
a deeper secondary test that occurs
1192
00:46:50,319 --> 00:46:50,820
um
1193
00:46:50,820 --> 00:46:52,240
[Music]
1194
00:46:52,240 --> 00:46:53,359
in in
1195
00:46:53,359 --> 00:46:54,640
november
1196
00:46:54,640 --> 00:46:56,640
which is essentially very close to the
1197
00:46:56,640 --> 00:46:58,880
support level and the
1198
00:46:58,880 --> 00:47:00,960
behavior of the price when it reaches
1199
00:47:00,960 --> 00:47:02,160
that level
1200
00:47:02,160 --> 00:47:05,599
okay so what is it how would we label it
1201
00:47:05,599 --> 00:47:09,040
um i i would label that as yes yes sd
1202
00:47:09,040 --> 00:47:11,520
yeah okay great and there are by the way
1203
00:47:11,520 --> 00:47:14,880
multiple secondary tests
1204
00:47:14,880 --> 00:47:15,839
this is
1205
00:47:15,839 --> 00:47:18,000
this is also guys another thing that i
1206
00:47:18,000 --> 00:47:20,000
want you to start thinking about and
1207
00:47:20,000 --> 00:47:21,920
today i'm gonna give you so much
1208
00:47:21,920 --> 00:47:23,359
material
1209
00:47:23,359 --> 00:47:25,440
for those of you who
1210
00:47:25,440 --> 00:47:28,000
emailed me and you guys said i watched
1211
00:47:28,000 --> 00:47:29,680
the video and it was
1212
00:47:29,680 --> 00:47:30,559
uh
1213
00:47:30,559 --> 00:47:33,040
like an eye opening watching it for the
1214
00:47:33,040 --> 00:47:34,960
second or third time and some of you
1215
00:47:34,960 --> 00:47:36,800
watched multiple times
1216
00:47:36,800 --> 00:47:38,880
and i do believe it because
1217
00:47:38,880 --> 00:47:40,720
going through this
1218
00:47:40,720 --> 00:47:42,800
even through this chart i already gave
1219
00:47:42,800 --> 00:47:45,440
you probably like a dozens of concepts
1220
00:47:45,440 --> 00:47:47,599
that you could make a note of so for
1221
00:47:47,599 --> 00:47:49,839
those of you who have time
1222
00:47:49,839 --> 00:47:52,400
watch the recording again make the notes
1223
00:47:52,400 --> 00:47:54,480
send those notes to me you're gonna
1224
00:47:54,480 --> 00:47:56,480
receive so much value out of that
1225
00:47:56,480 --> 00:47:59,200
exercise okay so what am i
1226
00:47:59,200 --> 00:48:00,880
talking about here
1227
00:48:00,880 --> 00:48:04,240
we have to understand the texture
1228
00:48:04,240 --> 00:48:07,359
of the large formation how it forms
1229
00:48:07,359 --> 00:48:09,839
we could see that the cell in climax is
1230
00:48:09,839 --> 00:48:11,839
always going to be associated with the
1231
00:48:11,839 --> 00:48:14,240
secondary test the retest of that and
1232
00:48:14,240 --> 00:48:17,119
then in phase b brahma has mentioned you
1233
00:48:17,119 --> 00:48:20,800
know this secondary test that goes to
1234
00:48:20,800 --> 00:48:21,680
the
1235
00:48:21,680 --> 00:48:23,119
support level
1236
00:48:23,119 --> 00:48:26,240
but there are quite a lot of those tests
1237
00:48:26,240 --> 00:48:28,880
around this area there are one two three
1238
00:48:28,880 --> 00:48:31,119
four five five tests maybe even six
1239
00:48:31,119 --> 00:48:32,160
tests
1240
00:48:32,160 --> 00:48:34,160
and you kind of could see from the
1241
00:48:34,160 --> 00:48:38,160
texture of the price that it's all
1242
00:48:38,160 --> 00:48:39,440
together
1243
00:48:39,440 --> 00:48:41,839
it's not just separate tests
1244
00:48:41,839 --> 00:48:43,760
it's the testing
1245
00:48:43,760 --> 00:48:45,040
um
1246
00:48:45,040 --> 00:48:48,400
that takes some time and produces a
1247
00:48:48,400 --> 00:48:50,000
trading range
1248
00:48:50,000 --> 00:48:52,720
so when we look into this we usually
1249
00:48:52,720 --> 00:48:54,880
would be thinking that it should belong
1250
00:48:54,880 --> 00:48:57,680
to one phase and some instances we would
1251
00:48:57,680 --> 00:48:59,839
break this but in this case it seems
1252
00:48:59,839 --> 00:49:02,720
like it should be one one test and then
1253
00:49:02,720 --> 00:49:05,520
one phase so what phase would it be all
1254
00:49:05,520 --> 00:49:08,480
this secondary tests here phase b phase
1255
00:49:08,480 --> 00:49:11,280
b yes we still need to experience phase
1256
00:49:11,280 --> 00:49:13,040
b and we know that phase b is going to
1257
00:49:13,040 --> 00:49:16,079
be the largest amount of three phases a
1258
00:49:16,079 --> 00:49:17,440
b and c
1259
00:49:17,440 --> 00:49:20,559
okay so if this is phase b then what is
1260
00:49:20,559 --> 00:49:23,359
the next most obvious thing that you see
1261
00:49:23,359 --> 00:49:24,720
in this trading range that you could
1262
00:49:24,720 --> 00:49:28,800
identify and tell us i know what this is
1263
00:49:28,800 --> 00:49:30,559
uh
1264
00:49:30,559 --> 00:49:32,000
would be the
1265
00:49:32,000 --> 00:49:32,880
uh
1266
00:49:32,880 --> 00:49:35,040
there are two points i can identify one
1267
00:49:35,040 --> 00:49:36,480
is the uh
1268
00:49:36,480 --> 00:49:37,359
the
1269
00:49:37,359 --> 00:49:39,760
up thrust that happens soon after the
1270
00:49:39,760 --> 00:49:41,599
testing of the support level and the
1271
00:49:41,599 --> 00:49:43,359
other one is the
1272
00:49:43,359 --> 00:49:44,559
uh
1273
00:49:44,559 --> 00:49:45,920
the
1274
00:49:45,920 --> 00:49:46,960
low
1275
00:49:46,960 --> 00:49:47,839
of
1276
00:49:47,839 --> 00:49:49,839
the phase c
1277
00:49:49,839 --> 00:49:51,599
okay those are the two things that stand
1278
00:49:51,599 --> 00:49:54,160
out okay so let's deal with phase c
1279
00:49:54,160 --> 00:49:58,160
first so why is this space c
1280
00:49:58,160 --> 00:49:59,119
um
1281
00:49:59,119 --> 00:50:00,079
the
1282
00:50:00,079 --> 00:50:02,960
the price action and and the the price
1283
00:50:02,960 --> 00:50:07,280
again uh unlike the other test in phase
1284
00:50:07,280 --> 00:50:08,400
b
1285
00:50:08,400 --> 00:50:09,440
the
1286
00:50:09,440 --> 00:50:12,960
price gets much closer and the the
1287
00:50:12,960 --> 00:50:15,280
spreader the bar narrows
1288
00:50:15,280 --> 00:50:17,040
and
1289
00:50:17,040 --> 00:50:20,800
and the rally that follows that
1290
00:50:20,800 --> 00:50:22,400
for the first time
1291
00:50:22,400 --> 00:50:25,760
traverses through uh the trading range
1292
00:50:25,760 --> 00:50:28,720
uh commits itself above the resistance
1293
00:50:28,720 --> 00:50:29,839
level
1294
00:50:29,839 --> 00:50:32,079
and then stays above that resistance
1295
00:50:32,079 --> 00:50:35,119
level well some someone has been doing a
1296
00:50:35,119 --> 00:50:36,720
lot of homeworks and watching a lot of
1297
00:50:36,720 --> 00:50:38,640
videos so rama
1298
00:50:38,640 --> 00:50:41,920
good job um so rama has given us a lot
1299
00:50:41,920 --> 00:50:43,040
of
1300
00:50:43,040 --> 00:50:45,359
thoughts on how we could identify phase
1301
00:50:45,359 --> 00:50:46,240
c
1302
00:50:46,240 --> 00:50:48,240
i'm gonna show you the slide and you
1303
00:50:48,240 --> 00:50:50,240
know in couple of other slides that we
1304
00:50:50,240 --> 00:50:51,839
have to cover first
1305
00:50:51,839 --> 00:50:54,960
um on how could we identify phase c this
1306
00:50:54,960 --> 00:50:56,640
is going to be one of the
1307
00:50:56,640 --> 00:50:59,280
major um kind of shortcuts that i'm
1308
00:50:59,280 --> 00:51:01,599
going to give you guys so phase c is
1309
00:51:01,599 --> 00:51:02,720
going to be
1310
00:51:02,720 --> 00:51:04,559
associated with
1311
00:51:04,559 --> 00:51:05,599
the
1312
00:51:05,599 --> 00:51:07,599
number three
1313
00:51:07,599 --> 00:51:08,480
or
1314
00:51:08,480 --> 00:51:10,319
last
1315
00:51:10,319 --> 00:51:12,559
test
1316
00:51:12,559 --> 00:51:16,319
at the level of the support
1317
00:51:16,319 --> 00:51:18,240
so where is the first test
1318
00:51:18,240 --> 00:51:21,119
well naturally after the climactic
1319
00:51:21,119 --> 00:51:24,079
action in phase a that's number one and
1320
00:51:24,079 --> 00:51:25,760
that's at the support level even though
1321
00:51:25,760 --> 00:51:28,400
it comes so high but it's still testing
1322
00:51:28,400 --> 00:51:30,640
the local stopping action by selling
1323
00:51:30,640 --> 00:51:31,839
climax
1324
00:51:31,839 --> 00:51:35,440
test number two naturally will happen in
1325
00:51:35,440 --> 00:51:36,720
phase b
1326
00:51:36,720 --> 00:51:38,800
and this test number two is just too
1327
00:51:38,800 --> 00:51:40,079
complex
1328
00:51:40,079 --> 00:51:43,359
because there is a selling climax
1329
00:51:43,359 --> 00:51:44,960
there is a whole formation with the
1330
00:51:44,960 --> 00:51:47,520
selling climax automatic rally secondary
1331
00:51:47,520 --> 00:51:51,119
test phase a phase b phase b
1332
00:51:51,119 --> 00:51:52,160
um
1333
00:51:52,160 --> 00:51:55,680
even this phase b up thrust phase c
1334
00:51:55,680 --> 00:51:58,000
so it has its own trading range so it's
1335
00:51:58,000 --> 00:51:59,839
just a complex trading range and a
1336
00:51:59,839 --> 00:52:02,559
complex uh process of testing that we
1337
00:52:02,559 --> 00:52:04,960
are observing here but this is a test
1338
00:52:04,960 --> 00:52:06,319
number two
1339
00:52:06,319 --> 00:52:08,559
and then phase c
1340
00:52:08,559 --> 00:52:12,319
always will be a test number three
1341
00:52:12,319 --> 00:52:14,880
at the level of the support that's very
1342
00:52:14,880 --> 00:52:17,520
important because test number four
1343
00:52:17,520 --> 00:52:19,599
is going to be at the level of the
1344
00:52:19,599 --> 00:52:21,599
resistance that uh
1345
00:52:21,599 --> 00:52:22,880
that
1346
00:52:22,880 --> 00:52:25,839
was created by phases a and b we will
1347
00:52:25,839 --> 00:52:27,920
come back to this later on
1348
00:52:27,920 --> 00:52:31,760
we also know that phase c is going to be
1349
00:52:31,760 --> 00:52:32,480
the
1350
00:52:32,480 --> 00:52:35,200
lowest
1351
00:52:35,680 --> 00:52:37,200
low
1352
00:52:37,200 --> 00:52:40,160
in the uptrend
1353
00:52:40,720 --> 00:52:43,359
and because we look at the
1354
00:52:43,359 --> 00:52:45,280
at the chart where we know what has
1355
00:52:45,280 --> 00:52:46,559
happened before
1356
00:52:46,559 --> 00:52:49,440
where did uptrend has started
1357
00:52:49,440 --> 00:52:51,599
one might argue that well we had to
1358
00:52:51,599 --> 00:52:53,280
start maybe like somewhere here in
1359
00:52:53,280 --> 00:52:54,960
december of
1360
00:52:54,960 --> 00:52:56,400
85
1361
00:52:56,400 --> 00:52:58,240
and then we have a higher high and the
1362
00:52:58,240 --> 00:52:59,520
higher low
1363
00:52:59,520 --> 00:53:02,000
one might argue well maybe even up low
1364
00:53:02,000 --> 00:53:03,920
prior to that november
1365
00:53:03,920 --> 00:53:05,760
but for us what's important is to
1366
00:53:05,760 --> 00:53:08,400
understand is that there is still a
1367
00:53:08,400 --> 00:53:10,800
trading range that unfolds it's a
1368
00:53:10,800 --> 00:53:13,280
non-trending environment
1369
00:53:13,280 --> 00:53:16,240
so therefore there is no really a trend
1370
00:53:16,240 --> 00:53:19,040
until it hits the law of phase c and
1371
00:53:19,040 --> 00:53:20,559
only then
1372
00:53:20,559 --> 00:53:23,119
we would be seeing some kind of uptrend
1373
00:53:23,119 --> 00:53:25,440
now we'll have some other different
1374
00:53:25,440 --> 00:53:27,680
definitions on this subject where we
1375
00:53:27,680 --> 00:53:30,079
might have even the low in phase a and
1376
00:53:30,079 --> 00:53:32,079
that would you know establish the whole
1377
00:53:32,079 --> 00:53:34,000
trend but we still would be going
1378
00:53:34,000 --> 00:53:36,000
through some kind of consolidating
1379
00:53:36,000 --> 00:53:38,319
accumulative actions you know prior to
1380
00:53:38,319 --> 00:53:40,800
that so the lowest low when you look at
1381
00:53:40,800 --> 00:53:43,200
the historical chart
1382
00:53:43,200 --> 00:53:45,200
could define phase c
1383
00:53:45,200 --> 00:53:47,040
for you really easily
1384
00:53:47,040 --> 00:53:49,200
that's where the trend starts we also
1385
00:53:49,200 --> 00:53:50,720
will talk about
1386
00:53:50,720 --> 00:53:52,960
a second point of fear
1387
00:53:52,960 --> 00:53:55,839
in phase c so that second point of fear
1388
00:53:55,839 --> 00:53:57,520
either is going to be associated with
1389
00:53:57,520 --> 00:53:59,200
the increase in the volume signature
1390
00:53:59,200 --> 00:54:00,800
where we can't
1391
00:54:00,800 --> 00:54:05,040
um are going to capitulate
1392
00:54:05,200 --> 00:54:07,200
and that's going to produce that lower
1393
00:54:07,200 --> 00:54:08,480
low
1394
00:54:08,480 --> 00:54:09,520
or
1395
00:54:09,520 --> 00:54:11,520
we could have you know like in this
1396
00:54:11,520 --> 00:54:14,079
instance a very big distance to the
1397
00:54:14,079 --> 00:54:16,160
downside right so reaction might
1398
00:54:16,160 --> 00:54:17,760
increase
1399
00:54:17,760 --> 00:54:18,640
um
1400
00:54:18,640 --> 00:54:22,079
and that could produce you know uh
1401
00:54:22,079 --> 00:54:25,440
you know increased selling behaviors by
1402
00:54:25,440 --> 00:54:27,359
weak hands and they will be trying to
1403
00:54:27,359 --> 00:54:29,040
get out and there might be some
1404
00:54:29,040 --> 00:54:31,839
acceleration around the support here
1405
00:54:31,839 --> 00:54:34,400
um what else we also
1406
00:54:34,400 --> 00:54:38,480
said that there are some characteristics
1407
00:54:38,480 --> 00:54:41,680
for face c that we need to understand
1408
00:54:41,680 --> 00:54:43,200
we definitely
1409
00:54:43,200 --> 00:54:46,079
know that the reaction should have some
1410
00:54:46,079 --> 00:54:49,440
kind of bullish signs
1411
00:54:49,760 --> 00:54:52,400
and rama has mentioned those the
1412
00:54:52,400 --> 00:54:55,520
downward spread is diminishing
1413
00:54:55,520 --> 00:54:57,359
relative to what we've seen let's say in
1414
00:54:57,359 --> 00:55:00,160
phase b or on the climactic run in phase
1415
00:55:00,160 --> 00:55:00,880
a
1416
00:55:00,880 --> 00:55:03,200
we could also see that maybe
1417
00:55:03,200 --> 00:55:05,119
with this dimension
1418
00:55:05,119 --> 00:55:07,599
downspread action the volume is also
1419
00:55:07,599 --> 00:55:09,599
diminished that could be a possibility
1420
00:55:09,599 --> 00:55:12,960
as well and kind of a laborious move to
1421
00:55:12,960 --> 00:55:16,000
the downside instead of very quick
1422
00:55:16,000 --> 00:55:18,240
uh you know sign of strength type of
1423
00:55:18,240 --> 00:55:20,160
move to the downside so that's the big
1424
00:55:20,160 --> 00:55:21,200
difference
1425
00:55:21,200 --> 00:55:25,280
okay so let's come back to our labeling
1426
00:55:25,280 --> 00:55:27,040
phase a
1427
00:55:27,040 --> 00:55:29,839
phase c
1428
00:55:30,000 --> 00:55:33,520
so everything in between is phase b
1429
00:55:33,520 --> 00:55:36,720
and we see two instances where the price
1430
00:55:36,720 --> 00:55:38,079
overcomes
1431
00:55:38,079 --> 00:55:39,920
uh the previous high in a very
1432
00:55:39,920 --> 00:55:42,400
insignificant way uh in the first time
1433
00:55:42,400 --> 00:55:44,319
first time it tries to commit to the
1434
00:55:44,319 --> 00:55:46,880
upside actually the first time was here
1435
00:55:46,880 --> 00:55:50,079
uh in phase b so up thrust action in
1436
00:55:50,079 --> 00:55:52,079
phase b then the second time it's just
1437
00:55:52,079 --> 00:55:54,799
an attempt to commit and then the return
1438
00:55:54,799 --> 00:55:56,400
and then the third time there is a
1439
00:55:56,400 --> 00:55:59,200
commitment and then a return back
1440
00:55:59,200 --> 00:56:01,280
so all of those instances are going to
1441
00:56:01,280 --> 00:56:02,559
be up for us
1442
00:56:02,559 --> 00:56:05,599
there is only
1443
00:56:06,400 --> 00:56:08,480
only one extra definition here that i
1444
00:56:08,480 --> 00:56:10,079
want you to know
1445
00:56:10,079 --> 00:56:13,280
this rally right here that looks like a
1446
00:56:13,280 --> 00:56:15,280
rally in phase d
1447
00:56:15,280 --> 00:56:17,359
and some of you who are more advanced
1448
00:56:17,359 --> 00:56:19,359
are probably just thinking okay well why
1449
00:56:19,359 --> 00:56:21,760
is he not talking about this why
1450
00:56:21,760 --> 00:56:24,480
why is this not a sign of strength rally
1451
00:56:24,480 --> 00:56:27,280
why is it not identified as phase
1452
00:56:27,280 --> 00:56:28,160
d
1453
00:56:28,160 --> 00:56:30,240
well look at the next reaction that
1454
00:56:30,240 --> 00:56:31,839
comes after that
1455
00:56:31,839 --> 00:56:34,880
it actually negates almost all of the
1456
00:56:34,880 --> 00:56:37,359
gains that we've seen on this rally and
1457
00:56:37,359 --> 00:56:40,240
we've just identified phase c low
1458
00:56:40,240 --> 00:56:43,200
as the law of this reaction so therefore
1459
00:56:43,200 --> 00:56:45,760
whatever we are observing all of this
1460
00:56:45,760 --> 00:56:48,480
moves to the upside are most likely a
1461
00:56:48,480 --> 00:56:50,240
part of phase b
1462
00:56:50,240 --> 00:56:52,559
now in phase b we could have up thrust
1463
00:56:52,559 --> 00:56:54,000
and some of them are going to be quite
1464
00:56:54,000 --> 00:56:55,440
significant
1465
00:56:55,440 --> 00:56:57,760
the ones that are showing us some
1466
00:56:57,760 --> 00:56:59,599
bullish activity
1467
00:56:59,599 --> 00:57:01,440
and that are going to look
1468
00:57:01,440 --> 00:57:02,640
like
1469
00:57:02,640 --> 00:57:05,599
a phase d sign of strength
1470
00:57:05,599 --> 00:57:09,599
could be labeled as upthrust action
1471
00:57:09,599 --> 00:57:11,280
as
1472
00:57:11,280 --> 00:57:13,520
a minor
1473
00:57:13,520 --> 00:57:15,280
sign of strength
1474
00:57:15,280 --> 00:57:17,520
whereas the major sign of strength is
1475
00:57:17,520 --> 00:57:19,520
still going to come in phase d right so
1476
00:57:19,520 --> 00:57:21,920
we could have a major sign of strength
1477
00:57:21,920 --> 00:57:24,400
as like this rally
1478
00:57:24,400 --> 00:57:27,359
and then a backing up action into the uh
1479
00:57:27,359 --> 00:57:29,520
into the lows of the support that acted
1480
00:57:29,520 --> 00:57:31,280
before is the resistance so this could
1481
00:57:31,280 --> 00:57:34,400
act as a backing up action so this big
1482
00:57:34,400 --> 00:57:37,040
rally is going to be a major sign of
1483
00:57:37,040 --> 00:57:38,960
strength
1484
00:57:38,960 --> 00:57:41,760
and then this smaller rally in phase b
1485
00:57:41,760 --> 00:57:44,319
is going to be an upthrust action as a
1486
00:57:44,319 --> 00:57:46,799
minus sign of strength and that's that
1487
00:57:46,799 --> 00:57:50,480
distinction that i want you guys to give
1488
00:57:50,480 --> 00:57:53,680
all right uh let me quickly just
1489
00:57:53,680 --> 00:57:58,319
see what other questions we have um
1490
00:57:58,319 --> 00:58:01,119
isn't phase a important for closing of a
1491
00:58:01,119 --> 00:58:03,839
position from philip um yeah absolutely
1492
00:58:03,839 --> 00:58:06,799
here at this point we're gonna be
1493
00:58:06,799 --> 00:58:08,799
facing a lot of trading decisions i
1494
00:58:08,799 --> 00:58:10,559
would keep in the position if we are
1495
00:58:10,559 --> 00:58:11,680
correct
1496
00:58:11,680 --> 00:58:14,079
um on our bias and if we are in this
1497
00:58:14,079 --> 00:58:15,200
trade
1498
00:58:15,200 --> 00:58:17,280
also some other decisions not for those
1499
00:58:17,280 --> 00:58:19,119
of you who are in this position at this
1500
00:58:19,119 --> 00:58:21,520
point of time let's say somebody is
1501
00:58:21,520 --> 00:58:23,920
looking at the stock and identifying
1502
00:58:23,920 --> 00:58:26,000
maybe you know
1503
00:58:26,000 --> 00:58:27,680
some kind of
1504
00:58:27,680 --> 00:58:30,559
interest in the stock so in phase a what
1505
00:58:30,559 --> 00:58:32,400
kind of trade trading decision we're
1506
00:58:32,400 --> 00:58:34,799
going to have at this point most likely
1507
00:58:34,799 --> 00:58:35,599
not
1508
00:58:35,599 --> 00:58:38,000
but that's a decision on its own
1509
00:58:38,000 --> 00:58:42,160
not to participate is a decision
1510
00:58:42,160 --> 00:58:45,359
not to be involved not to get um
1511
00:58:45,359 --> 00:58:47,680
you know your risk exposure at this
1512
00:58:47,680 --> 00:58:50,480
point of time is a trading decision
1513
00:58:50,480 --> 00:58:53,119
doing nothing sitting on your hands is a
1514
00:58:53,119 --> 00:58:54,880
trading decision
1515
00:58:54,880 --> 00:58:57,040
um so yeah so those type of decisions
1516
00:58:57,040 --> 00:59:00,400
are going to be important in phase a
1517
00:59:00,400 --> 00:59:02,799
is there a sign of strength rally after
1518
00:59:02,799 --> 00:59:04,799
december secondary test so we've just
1519
00:59:04,799 --> 00:59:08,079
covered this yes it's a sign of strength
1520
00:59:08,079 --> 00:59:10,319
rally but that's a minus sign of
1521
00:59:10,319 --> 00:59:12,319
strength rally
1522
00:59:12,319 --> 00:59:13,040
in
1523
00:59:13,040 --> 00:59:16,319
phase b and not in phase d
1524
00:59:16,319 --> 00:59:18,799
uh where would you place the trade in
1525
00:59:18,799 --> 00:59:21,440
phase c okay good question that comes
1526
00:59:21,440 --> 00:59:22,640
from justin
1527
00:59:22,640 --> 00:59:24,880
um so we're looking at how the price
1528
00:59:24,880 --> 00:59:26,720
moves to the downside and we're looking
1529
00:59:26,720 --> 00:59:30,240
for any points of the reversal right so
1530
00:59:30,240 --> 00:59:32,400
move to the downside
1531
00:59:32,400 --> 00:59:34,000
no reversal
1532
00:59:34,000 --> 00:59:37,599
move to the downside no reversal move to
1533
00:59:37,599 --> 00:59:39,200
the downside
1534
00:59:39,200 --> 00:59:40,799
no reversal
1535
00:59:40,799 --> 00:59:42,960
move to the downside
1536
00:59:42,960 --> 00:59:44,839
oops
1537
00:59:44,839 --> 00:59:46,400
reversal
1538
00:59:46,400 --> 00:59:48,720
which would equal our point of entry and
1539
00:59:48,720 --> 00:59:50,559
that would be our first point of entry
1540
00:59:50,559 --> 00:59:52,559
our second point of entry
1541
00:59:52,559 --> 00:59:56,160
could be this bar right here
1542
00:59:56,319 --> 00:59:57,920
our uh
1543
00:59:57,920 --> 01:00:00,400
next point of entry will be somewhere in
1544
01:00:00,400 --> 01:00:01,680
this area
1545
01:00:01,680 --> 01:00:03,760
where we are experiencing a backing up
1546
01:00:03,760 --> 01:00:05,280
action
1547
01:00:05,280 --> 01:00:06,559
and our
1548
01:00:06,559 --> 01:00:08,240
fourth point of entry is probably going
1549
01:00:08,240 --> 01:00:12,319
to be somewhere here on the breakout
1550
01:00:12,880 --> 01:00:14,880
this was not the most efficient in this
1551
01:00:14,880 --> 01:00:17,200
case entry but still with your stop
1552
01:00:17,200 --> 01:00:19,200
losses it shouldn't get you out so all
1553
01:00:19,200 --> 01:00:21,359
four points of entry you should just go
1554
01:00:21,359 --> 01:00:23,200
through
1555
01:00:23,200 --> 01:00:25,920
okay uh what else
1556
01:00:25,920 --> 01:00:28,160
is it reasonable to take a trade to
1557
01:00:28,160 --> 01:00:31,520
upside in early january
1558
01:00:31,520 --> 01:00:33,680
considering reaction looks like a
1559
01:00:33,680 --> 01:00:35,920
backing up action yes
1560
01:00:35,920 --> 01:00:38,480
um and if you're thinking that this is a
1561
01:00:38,480 --> 01:00:41,599
backing up action let's say
1562
01:00:41,599 --> 01:00:44,319
oh i see right here okay got it
1563
01:00:44,319 --> 01:00:46,240
okay yeah this is a good question but
1564
01:00:46,240 --> 01:00:48,720
again we're coming back into the point
1565
01:00:48,720 --> 01:00:51,359
of um you know how do we actually manage
1566
01:00:51,359 --> 01:00:53,520
the position meaning how do we actually
1567
01:00:53,520 --> 01:00:55,680
come in into the position right so we
1568
01:00:55,680 --> 01:00:57,359
need to see some kind of reversal of
1569
01:00:57,359 --> 01:00:59,680
this initial move to the downside there
1570
01:00:59,680 --> 01:01:02,559
is no reversal so there is no
1571
01:01:02,559 --> 01:01:04,960
entry and that would save us from
1572
01:01:04,960 --> 01:01:07,520
entering prematurely uh and from
1573
01:01:07,520 --> 01:01:09,200
exposing ourselves you know to the
1574
01:01:09,200 --> 01:01:12,559
remainder of this reaction
1575
01:01:12,640 --> 01:01:14,799
why is not a backing up action between
1576
01:01:14,799 --> 01:01:17,839
february and march
1577
01:01:17,839 --> 01:01:19,760
this one right here yeah it's a backing
1578
01:01:19,760 --> 01:01:20,960
up action
1579
01:01:20,960 --> 01:01:22,960
again it's just minor
1580
01:01:22,960 --> 01:01:25,359
right and then this is a backing up
1581
01:01:25,359 --> 01:01:28,559
action this whole formation
1582
01:01:28,559 --> 01:01:31,280
and it's a major
1583
01:01:31,280 --> 01:01:32,559
right so
1584
01:01:32,559 --> 01:01:35,200
quite a lot of distinctions already guys
1585
01:01:35,200 --> 01:01:37,280
that i've given you so
1586
01:01:37,280 --> 01:01:38,480
you have to
1587
01:01:38,480 --> 01:01:40,000
take notes and you have to remember
1588
01:01:40,000 --> 01:01:42,559
those all right drummer really quickly
1589
01:01:42,559 --> 01:01:45,680
let's talk about the distribution
1590
01:01:45,680 --> 01:01:46,400
so
1591
01:01:46,400 --> 01:01:48,799
um what is the most obvious thing that
1592
01:01:48,799 --> 01:01:52,599
you see in this distribution
1593
01:01:52,640 --> 01:01:55,039
in that small area of distribution the
1594
01:01:55,039 --> 01:01:59,359
most obvious thing is the um
1595
01:01:59,440 --> 01:02:02,559
price action that almost resembles uh
1596
01:02:02,559 --> 01:02:05,440
buying climax the very first bar what
1597
01:02:05,440 --> 01:02:07,359
are the characteristics of this buying
1598
01:02:07,359 --> 01:02:09,760
climax that we see
1599
01:02:09,760 --> 01:02:11,200
um
1600
01:02:11,200 --> 01:02:14,400
widespread rapid rise of the price to a
1601
01:02:14,400 --> 01:02:15,680
new high
1602
01:02:15,680 --> 01:02:17,839
and when compared to the previous high
1603
01:02:17,839 --> 01:02:19,520
quality
1604
01:02:19,520 --> 01:02:20,799
right
1605
01:02:20,799 --> 01:02:22,160
and then
1606
01:02:22,160 --> 01:02:25,359
it's immediately followed by an
1607
01:02:25,359 --> 01:02:27,359
automatic reaction
1608
01:02:27,359 --> 01:02:28,640
and
1609
01:02:28,640 --> 01:02:31,039
and
1610
01:02:31,680 --> 01:02:32,960
and then
1611
01:02:32,960 --> 01:02:36,000
that was that is followed by a secondary
1612
01:02:36,000 --> 01:02:38,960
test which tests the highs of previously
1613
01:02:38,960 --> 01:02:41,039
established heights please note there
1614
01:02:41,039 --> 01:02:43,440
are quite a few secondary tests here the
1615
01:02:43,440 --> 01:02:45,760
first one is going to be an attempt to
1616
01:02:45,760 --> 01:02:47,599
retest the buying climax that would
1617
01:02:47,599 --> 01:02:50,240
conclude phase a okay let's finish with
1618
01:02:50,240 --> 01:02:52,480
the buying climax what else
1619
01:02:52,480 --> 01:02:53,359
gap
1620
01:02:53,359 --> 01:02:54,799
yep
1621
01:02:54,799 --> 01:02:57,359
is going to be a part of that you know
1622
01:02:57,359 --> 01:03:00,880
climactic stop in action actually as you
1623
01:03:00,880 --> 01:03:02,559
look through this
1624
01:03:02,559 --> 01:03:04,720
intermediate stop in actions this is a
1625
01:03:04,720 --> 01:03:07,200
buying climax it's just intermediate and
1626
01:03:07,200 --> 01:03:09,520
look how gap is happening here look at
1627
01:03:09,520 --> 01:03:12,400
the move uh look at the gaps here
1628
01:03:12,400 --> 01:03:15,119
are also buying climax also buying
1629
01:03:15,119 --> 01:03:18,319
climax on a very very small scale
1630
01:03:18,319 --> 01:03:20,799
but we kind of see that this analog
1631
01:03:20,799 --> 01:03:23,520
repeats over and over and over again so
1632
01:03:23,520 --> 01:03:26,079
yes a lot of climatic action and what do
1633
01:03:26,079 --> 01:03:29,440
you think the volume signature here is
1634
01:03:29,440 --> 01:03:32,640
um you're more likely to be a
1635
01:03:32,640 --> 01:03:35,200
moderately high volume
1636
01:03:35,200 --> 01:03:36,160
okay
1637
01:03:36,160 --> 01:03:37,920
something like this i wonder why
1638
01:03:37,920 --> 01:03:42,079
moderately i'm just really curious
1639
01:03:42,839 --> 01:03:46,319
um that's because the the
1640
01:03:46,319 --> 01:03:49,119
the extent to which the price has moved
1641
01:03:49,119 --> 01:03:52,319
when compared to uh the previous high on
1642
01:03:52,319 --> 01:03:55,760
the left side around just before june
1643
01:03:55,760 --> 01:03:58,240
uh
1644
01:03:58,240 --> 01:04:00,799
leads me to suspect that the
1645
01:04:00,799 --> 01:04:03,200
volume might have been only moderately
1646
01:04:03,200 --> 01:04:06,079
if it was uh climactic volume you would
1647
01:04:06,079 --> 01:04:07,920
have i would have seen a price go a
1648
01:04:07,920 --> 01:04:09,599
little bit higher
1649
01:04:09,599 --> 01:04:11,839
interesting okay guys for those of you
1650
01:04:11,839 --> 01:04:14,000
who can quickly find me the volume
1651
01:04:14,000 --> 01:04:17,280
signature and maybe send me the picture
1652
01:04:17,280 --> 01:04:18,880
through the chat or something like this
1653
01:04:18,880 --> 01:04:20,799
i'm now really curious
1654
01:04:20,799 --> 01:04:21,760
um
1655
01:04:21,760 --> 01:04:23,839
my first thought would be that because
1656
01:04:23,839 --> 01:04:26,559
the next area is the reaccumulation
1657
01:04:26,559 --> 01:04:28,160
you know the volume signature is going
1658
01:04:28,160 --> 01:04:31,280
to increase but probably more locally
1659
01:04:31,280 --> 01:04:32,720
that's number one
1660
01:04:32,720 --> 01:04:33,599
um
1661
01:04:33,599 --> 01:04:36,640
and we probably would be thinking that
1662
01:04:36,640 --> 01:04:39,039
that would give us you know just an idea
1663
01:04:39,039 --> 01:04:40,640
that we're going to go into the trading
1664
01:04:40,640 --> 01:04:42,480
range with the bias that is going to be
1665
01:04:42,480 --> 01:04:44,240
to the upside
1666
01:04:44,240 --> 01:04:46,079
so therefore not a lot of supply
1667
01:04:46,079 --> 01:04:48,799
signature should be there on the second
1668
01:04:48,799 --> 01:04:49,680
thought
1669
01:04:49,680 --> 01:04:51,920
you know looking at all of these buying
1670
01:04:51,920 --> 01:04:54,960
uh climaxes you know to the upside
1671
01:04:54,960 --> 01:04:58,720
we're seeing that there is a a big gap
1672
01:04:58,720 --> 01:05:00,799
to the upside so there is some kind of
1673
01:05:00,799 --> 01:05:03,359
event here that stops this whole
1674
01:05:03,359 --> 01:05:05,920
movement so this event should have you
1675
01:05:05,920 --> 01:05:08,319
know an increase in the volume signature
1676
01:05:08,319 --> 01:05:10,960
for sure plus the whole day it just goes
1677
01:05:10,960 --> 01:05:12,240
goes up
1678
01:05:12,240 --> 01:05:14,400
so that should you know have some kind
1679
01:05:14,400 --> 01:05:16,319
of demand behind it
1680
01:05:16,319 --> 01:05:18,799
uh especially at the higher levels
1681
01:05:18,799 --> 01:05:20,640
over the resistance so
1682
01:05:20,640 --> 01:05:22,960
i wonder what the volume signature is
1683
01:05:22,960 --> 01:05:25,039
okay we'll come back to this so bind
1684
01:05:25,039 --> 01:05:28,079
climax automatic rally secondary test
1685
01:05:28,079 --> 01:05:30,720
our phase a is defined what is the next
1686
01:05:30,720 --> 01:05:33,359
phase that could be easily identified
1687
01:05:33,359 --> 01:05:35,119
right away
1688
01:05:35,119 --> 01:05:36,799
uh phase c
1689
01:05:36,799 --> 01:05:40,640
again the uh the the price were where
1690
01:05:40,640 --> 01:05:42,319
the price comes and
1691
01:05:42,319 --> 01:05:44,960
test the support level
1692
01:05:44,960 --> 01:05:47,039
and uh followed by a
1693
01:05:47,039 --> 01:05:49,920
second we are discussing a distribution
1694
01:05:49,920 --> 01:05:51,839
right so with the distribution we're
1695
01:05:51,839 --> 01:05:55,359
going to have this type of the schematic
1696
01:05:55,359 --> 01:05:57,280
where phase c
1697
01:05:57,280 --> 01:05:59,920
is going to be not at the low but at the
1698
01:05:59,920 --> 01:06:01,039
high
1699
01:06:01,039 --> 01:06:03,359
yeah so where is it
1700
01:06:03,359 --> 01:06:04,799
it's uh
1701
01:06:04,799 --> 01:06:06,160
right at the
1702
01:06:06,160 --> 01:06:09,200
july level yeah which yeah the price
1703
01:06:09,200 --> 01:06:12,640
commits temporarily above the point of
1704
01:06:12,640 --> 01:06:15,280
the uh level of the resistance so how
1705
01:06:15,280 --> 01:06:16,400
would we
1706
01:06:16,400 --> 01:06:18,640
label this then
1707
01:06:18,640 --> 01:06:20,799
obviously phase c
1708
01:06:20,799 --> 01:06:23,119
yeah
1709
01:06:23,119 --> 01:06:26,720
and how would what is this wipe of event
1710
01:06:26,720 --> 01:06:28,799
the price commits the parallel above and
1711
01:06:28,799 --> 01:06:33,200
then comes back into the trading range
1712
01:06:33,200 --> 01:06:35,440
because this is distribution of the uh
1713
01:06:35,440 --> 01:06:37,440
right after us after distribution
1714
01:06:37,440 --> 01:06:40,079
everything between phase c and a is
1715
01:06:40,079 --> 01:06:42,480
going to be phase b and phase b we're
1716
01:06:42,480 --> 01:06:44,319
going to say okay there is a little bit
1717
01:06:44,319 --> 01:06:46,640
small up thrust here in phase b
1718
01:06:46,640 --> 01:06:49,760
uh there is uh
1719
01:06:50,160 --> 01:06:53,680
multiple secondary tests and then as the
1720
01:06:53,680 --> 01:06:56,319
price goes down and we see that the
1721
01:06:56,319 --> 01:06:59,280
price has some tail right here it's very
1722
01:06:59,280 --> 01:07:01,359
hard to see
1723
01:07:01,359 --> 01:07:03,119
how would we identify this action
1724
01:07:03,119 --> 01:07:06,480
obviously in phase d now
1725
01:07:06,559 --> 01:07:08,000
so this first
1726
01:07:08,000 --> 01:07:09,680
at least attempt to commit to the
1727
01:07:09,680 --> 01:07:14,030
downside you know how would we label it
1728
01:07:14,030 --> 01:07:15,440
[Music]
1729
01:07:15,440 --> 01:07:16,880
that
1730
01:07:16,880 --> 01:07:19,599
that would be labeled as a last point of
1731
01:07:19,599 --> 01:07:20,799
supply
1732
01:07:20,799 --> 01:07:23,280
okay so the rally will be the last end
1733
01:07:23,280 --> 01:07:26,000
of supply but the move to the downside
1734
01:07:26,000 --> 01:07:27,920
from the high of the up thrust to the
1735
01:07:27,920 --> 01:07:30,319
low of this reaction you know this this
1736
01:07:30,319 --> 01:07:34,319
whole move right here that would be what
1737
01:07:34,720 --> 01:07:37,039
um
1738
01:07:37,920 --> 01:07:39,119
think about
1739
01:07:39,119 --> 01:07:42,319
phase c low and accumulation and move to
1740
01:07:42,319 --> 01:07:45,200
the upside the opposite to that to the
1741
01:07:45,200 --> 01:07:48,400
downside downside yeah
1742
01:07:48,400 --> 01:07:50,079
sign of weakness
1743
01:07:50,079 --> 01:07:52,319
yeah sign of weakness yeah sign of
1744
01:07:52,319 --> 01:07:54,160
weakness so it's a little bit condensed
1745
01:07:54,160 --> 01:07:55,039
here
1746
01:07:55,039 --> 01:07:57,440
but here it is
1747
01:07:57,440 --> 01:08:00,720
sign of weakness lpsy and then off we go
1748
01:08:00,720 --> 01:08:03,520
to the downside okay great so uh
1749
01:08:03,520 --> 01:08:08,559
distribution has a very small cause
1750
01:08:08,559 --> 01:08:10,319
so therefore
1751
01:08:10,319 --> 01:08:13,280
the downtrend
1752
01:08:13,280 --> 01:08:15,680
should be also small
1753
01:08:15,680 --> 01:08:18,640
and we kind of see that okay well then
1754
01:08:18,640 --> 01:08:20,880
uh then next we look at the
1755
01:08:20,880 --> 01:08:23,120
reaccumulation range again
1756
01:08:23,120 --> 01:08:25,359
okay so what is the most obvious thing
1757
01:08:25,359 --> 01:08:28,799
that catches your eye aroma
1758
01:08:29,520 --> 01:08:32,080
the most obvious thing is the
1759
01:08:32,080 --> 01:08:34,719
the price
1760
01:08:34,799 --> 01:08:38,080
leveling off after the sign of weakness
1761
01:08:38,080 --> 01:08:39,759
and the last point of supply it
1762
01:08:39,759 --> 01:08:42,319
establishes a a
1763
01:08:42,319 --> 01:08:45,040
price from which there's a rally that
1764
01:08:45,040 --> 01:08:47,600
takes place okay so we're
1765
01:08:47,600 --> 01:08:49,839
seeing the low that has been created and
1766
01:08:49,839 --> 01:08:54,158
then um then we're seeing a move to the
1767
01:08:54,158 --> 01:08:56,238
upside now this rally
1768
01:08:56,238 --> 01:08:57,439
is this
1769
01:08:57,439 --> 01:09:00,880
uh is is this rally much better than the
1770
01:09:00,880 --> 01:09:03,279
rallies that we've seen uh in the down
1771
01:09:03,279 --> 01:09:05,600
move during the time i've said yes
1772
01:09:05,600 --> 01:09:07,839
absolutely so what does it mean to us is
1773
01:09:07,839 --> 01:09:09,759
this a change of character
1774
01:09:09,759 --> 01:09:11,839
yeah change of character change of
1775
01:09:11,839 --> 01:09:13,920
character at this point of time a change
1776
01:09:13,920 --> 01:09:16,640
of character would suggest that from a
1777
01:09:16,640 --> 01:09:18,719
downtrend we're going to go into
1778
01:09:18,719 --> 01:09:20,158
non-trending environment and we're going
1779
01:09:20,158 --> 01:09:22,799
to look at the trading range trading the
1780
01:09:22,799 --> 01:09:24,640
trading range here again the questions
1781
01:09:24,640 --> 01:09:26,158
that we're going to address with the
1782
01:09:26,158 --> 01:09:28,319
trading range bias
1783
01:09:28,319 --> 01:09:29,679
timing
1784
01:09:29,679 --> 01:09:31,040
character
1785
01:09:31,040 --> 01:09:33,679
right okay so and also
1786
01:09:33,679 --> 01:09:36,080
change of character is going to be
1787
01:09:36,080 --> 01:09:37,120
uh
1788
01:09:37,120 --> 01:09:40,000
be associated always on the way into the
1789
01:09:40,000 --> 01:09:41,920
trading range with phase a
1790
01:09:41,920 --> 01:09:44,399
okay so if this is phase a then what
1791
01:09:44,399 --> 01:09:46,479
kind of you know phase a like of events
1792
01:09:46,479 --> 01:09:48,238
do we have the stopping action is going
1793
01:09:48,238 --> 01:09:49,600
to be labeled as
1794
01:09:49,600 --> 01:09:51,520
kyle
1795
01:09:51,520 --> 01:09:54,000
um yeah
1796
01:09:54,000 --> 01:09:54,719
it
1797
01:09:54,719 --> 01:09:57,199
it will be labeled as
1798
01:09:57,199 --> 01:09:59,040
a local
1799
01:09:59,040 --> 01:10:01,920
selling climax yes and i like that you
1800
01:10:01,920 --> 01:10:04,560
know local definition okay great so
1801
01:10:04,560 --> 01:10:08,159
selling climax the first rally
1802
01:10:08,159 --> 01:10:10,960
uh that would be automatic reaction
1803
01:10:10,960 --> 01:10:13,520
reaction and then the next test that's
1804
01:10:13,520 --> 01:10:16,239
going to test the selling climax is
1805
01:10:16,239 --> 01:10:17,199
going to be
1806
01:10:17,199 --> 01:10:19,040
a secondary test
1807
01:10:19,040 --> 01:10:22,480
and that would define phase a for us
1808
01:10:22,480 --> 01:10:25,760
okay so then what is the next most
1809
01:10:25,760 --> 01:10:27,199
obvious
1810
01:10:27,199 --> 01:10:30,640
wike of advance uh if event that you see
1811
01:10:30,640 --> 01:10:32,719
here
1812
01:10:32,719 --> 01:10:33,840
um
1813
01:10:33,840 --> 01:10:36,880
a rally that
1814
01:10:38,080 --> 01:10:41,040
goes above the level of the resistance
1815
01:10:41,040 --> 01:10:42,320
and
1816
01:10:42,320 --> 01:10:44,480
doesn't commit itself to
1817
01:10:44,480 --> 01:10:47,040
the price level above and
1818
01:10:47,040 --> 01:10:49,679
declines into the trading range so kind
1819
01:10:49,679 --> 01:10:51,760
of like this type of action right like
1820
01:10:51,760 --> 01:10:53,679
we have this optimized and then we come
1821
01:10:53,679 --> 01:10:55,520
back into the trading range and it
1822
01:10:55,520 --> 01:10:58,239
happens at the same spot right so right
1823
01:10:58,239 --> 01:11:00,960
after phase a so acts a little bit as an
1824
01:11:00,960 --> 01:11:03,360
analog you know to what what is what
1825
01:11:03,360 --> 01:11:05,679
we're seeing here so we're saying
1826
01:11:05,679 --> 01:11:07,040
upfront
1827
01:11:07,040 --> 01:11:09,840
at this point of time looking at this
1828
01:11:09,840 --> 01:11:11,360
route
1829
01:11:11,360 --> 01:11:12,800
you're looking at the character of this
1830
01:11:12,800 --> 01:11:14,000
rally
1831
01:11:14,000 --> 01:11:17,280
could we say that maybe this rally acts
1832
01:11:17,280 --> 01:11:19,440
even as a kind of like a minus sign of
1833
01:11:19,440 --> 01:11:20,960
strength here
1834
01:11:20,960 --> 01:11:23,040
yes i would say so yeah look at the
1835
01:11:23,040 --> 01:11:25,280
character the price moves so quickly to
1836
01:11:25,280 --> 01:11:26,480
the upside
1837
01:11:26,480 --> 01:11:29,760
it commits on actually multiple closes
1838
01:11:29,760 --> 01:11:32,159
to the upside actually maybe just uh one
1839
01:11:32,159 --> 01:11:33,280
or two
1840
01:11:33,280 --> 01:11:35,679
spend some time there and this is what's
1841
01:11:35,679 --> 01:11:37,520
interesting sometimes up trust look at
1842
01:11:37,520 --> 01:11:39,760
this up to us goes up
1843
01:11:39,760 --> 01:11:41,840
commits really quickly and then by the
1844
01:11:41,840 --> 01:11:43,679
end of the session it already shows some
1845
01:11:43,679 --> 01:11:45,600
supply and then the next day comes back
1846
01:11:45,600 --> 01:11:47,840
into the trading range this one is
1847
01:11:47,840 --> 01:11:49,040
different
1848
01:11:49,040 --> 01:11:52,159
this one has three days
1849
01:11:52,159 --> 01:11:55,199
that goes above the resistance and then
1850
01:11:55,199 --> 01:11:56,960
look at the time that dispense maybe
1851
01:11:56,960 --> 01:11:58,480
like two weeks
1852
01:11:58,480 --> 01:12:00,320
above that uh
1853
01:12:00,320 --> 01:12:02,800
that point of the uh point of resistance
1854
01:12:02,800 --> 01:12:04,800
so what does it tell us it tells us that
1855
01:12:04,800 --> 01:12:07,440
there is some kind of strength behind
1856
01:12:07,440 --> 01:12:09,840
um the price action
1857
01:12:09,840 --> 01:12:12,159
strength in the background yeah and that
1858
01:12:12,159 --> 01:12:14,800
strength guys you know it's not
1859
01:12:14,800 --> 01:12:18,239
indicative of the timing
1860
01:12:18,239 --> 01:12:21,199
by no means think about that oh my gosh
1861
01:12:21,199 --> 01:12:23,360
the strength in early let's say phase a
1862
01:12:23,360 --> 01:12:25,199
or early phase b
1863
01:12:25,199 --> 01:12:27,520
um you know we should go go in into this
1864
01:12:27,520 --> 01:12:30,719
position now this trend just suggests to
1865
01:12:30,719 --> 01:12:33,600
you that this is a reaccumulation but it
1866
01:12:33,600 --> 01:12:36,080
doesn't suggest to you the timing the
1867
01:12:36,080 --> 01:12:37,920
phase analysis is going to suggest to
1868
01:12:37,920 --> 01:12:40,159
you the timing as to when we should go
1869
01:12:40,159 --> 01:12:42,159
going into this position but this
1870
01:12:42,159 --> 01:12:45,280
strength suggests that the bias
1871
01:12:45,280 --> 01:12:47,600
could be to the upside so now you're
1872
01:12:47,600 --> 01:12:49,520
just looking for the confirmation of
1873
01:12:49,520 --> 01:12:51,520
this information is it really that the
1874
01:12:51,520 --> 01:12:53,600
bias is to the upside
1875
01:12:53,600 --> 01:12:55,600
because we're just still too early we're
1876
01:12:55,600 --> 01:13:00,320
in early phase b at this point of time
1877
01:13:00,320 --> 01:13:01,679
okay great
1878
01:13:01,679 --> 01:13:04,400
um so what's next if this is by the way
1879
01:13:04,400 --> 01:13:06,880
if this is uh biased to the op site we
1880
01:13:06,880 --> 01:13:08,560
would say that this is enough thrust
1881
01:13:08,560 --> 01:13:10,960
action rather than an op thrust okay
1882
01:13:10,960 --> 01:13:12,159
well then
1883
01:13:12,159 --> 01:13:13,840
what's what's the next thing that
1884
01:13:13,840 --> 01:13:15,520
catches your eye
1885
01:13:15,520 --> 01:13:18,000
right the next thing that catches my eye
1886
01:13:18,000 --> 01:13:20,640
is the disconfirmation that is
1887
01:13:20,640 --> 01:13:23,120
you know up until this time the strength
1888
01:13:23,120 --> 01:13:25,120
of the rally and the commitment of the
1889
01:13:25,120 --> 01:13:27,360
price to the resistance level above the
1890
01:13:27,360 --> 01:13:31,120
resistance for a few days
1891
01:13:31,280 --> 01:13:33,600
tilts my bias to the upside
1892
01:13:33,600 --> 01:13:34,320
but
1893
01:13:34,320 --> 01:13:37,600
the on that bias i always look for to
1894
01:13:37,600 --> 01:13:38,400
see
1895
01:13:38,400 --> 01:13:40,800
if that is going to be confirmed by the
1896
01:13:40,800 --> 01:13:42,239
subsequent
1897
01:13:42,239 --> 01:13:44,719
price action in this case
1898
01:13:44,719 --> 01:13:46,800
the subsequent price action is
1899
01:13:46,800 --> 01:13:48,719
indicative of weakness
1900
01:13:48,719 --> 01:13:52,159
so it comes down it price declines
1901
01:13:52,159 --> 01:13:54,239
okay so we're talking about this
1902
01:13:54,239 --> 01:13:55,280
right
1903
01:13:55,280 --> 01:13:58,320
and then and then it comes and produces
1904
01:13:58,320 --> 01:14:01,280
another secondary test okay well let's
1905
01:14:01,280 --> 01:14:03,920
let's kind of grab this idea here from
1906
01:14:03,920 --> 01:14:05,920
rama um so
1907
01:14:05,920 --> 01:14:08,320
he's saying that uh you know to come
1908
01:14:08,320 --> 01:14:10,320
back into the trading range we which we
1909
01:14:10,320 --> 01:14:12,960
would expect by the way in phase b
1910
01:14:12,960 --> 01:14:16,640
we've tested uh this is a secondary test
1911
01:14:16,640 --> 01:14:18,560
it's still in phase a and this is the
1912
01:14:18,560 --> 01:14:21,600
first test in phase b this is the test
1913
01:14:21,600 --> 01:14:23,760
at the level of the resistance and we
1914
01:14:23,760 --> 01:14:25,199
should have
1915
01:14:25,199 --> 01:14:26,400
a test
1916
01:14:26,400 --> 01:14:28,480
in phase b
1917
01:14:28,480 --> 01:14:30,560
at the level of the support
1918
01:14:30,560 --> 01:14:31,760
as well
1919
01:14:31,760 --> 01:14:35,040
phase b is going to test both resistance
1920
01:14:35,040 --> 01:14:38,400
and the support and we've seen
1921
01:14:38,400 --> 01:14:41,040
we've seen how um roma has described
1922
01:14:41,040 --> 01:14:44,320
that there is some supply
1923
01:14:44,320 --> 01:14:46,560
in or increase of the supply that we see
1924
01:14:46,560 --> 01:14:49,120
in the spread in the download spread
1925
01:14:49,120 --> 01:14:52,080
that suggests what that suggests that if
1926
01:14:52,080 --> 01:14:54,080
supply is increasing we need some kind
1927
01:14:54,080 --> 01:14:56,480
of retest of that supply
1928
01:14:56,480 --> 01:14:57,360
and
1929
01:14:57,360 --> 01:15:00,320
usually the more supply we have
1930
01:15:00,320 --> 01:15:02,719
the more testing we need to be
1931
01:15:02,719 --> 01:15:03,840
to be doing
1932
01:15:03,840 --> 01:15:06,320
and the more testing we need to be doing
1933
01:15:06,320 --> 01:15:08,000
that would suggest that we might go on
1934
01:15:08,000 --> 01:15:09,840
some kind of trading range so we just
1935
01:15:09,840 --> 01:15:11,280
and we're already in the trading range
1936
01:15:11,280 --> 01:15:13,040
here we're just kind of like
1937
01:15:13,040 --> 01:15:14,960
thinking that it's going to prolong the
1938
01:15:14,960 --> 01:15:19,360
trading range okay well um if we had
1939
01:15:19,360 --> 01:15:20,320
one
1940
01:15:20,320 --> 01:15:21,360
test
1941
01:15:21,360 --> 01:15:24,400
uh which was an up supposedly you know
1942
01:15:24,400 --> 01:15:28,159
up thrust action test
1943
01:15:28,239 --> 01:15:29,920
at the resistance
1944
01:15:29,920 --> 01:15:31,840
then the next test is going to be at the
1945
01:15:31,840 --> 01:15:34,159
support
1946
01:15:34,159 --> 01:15:36,239
so how would we label this test in phase
1947
01:15:36,239 --> 01:15:38,159
b
1948
01:15:38,159 --> 01:15:39,920
i would ask
1949
01:15:39,920 --> 01:15:42,480
still label that as a secondary test
1950
01:15:42,480 --> 01:15:43,360
yeah
1951
01:15:43,360 --> 01:15:46,320
secondary test we are not overcoming
1952
01:15:46,320 --> 01:15:48,800
the low that was created in phase a so
1953
01:15:48,800 --> 01:15:52,719
this is a higher low so therefore um you
1954
01:15:52,719 --> 01:15:55,040
know the higher low
1955
01:15:55,040 --> 01:15:56,480
in phase b
1956
01:15:56,480 --> 01:15:59,520
would be labeled as a secondary test
1957
01:15:59,520 --> 01:16:02,080
at the level of the support
1958
01:16:02,080 --> 01:16:05,040
and then a lower low in phase b
1959
01:16:05,040 --> 01:16:08,239
would be labeled as a secondary test as
1960
01:16:08,239 --> 01:16:13,040
a sign of as a minus sign of weakness
1961
01:16:13,920 --> 01:16:15,679
okay so
1962
01:16:15,679 --> 01:16:18,000
this is a secondary test but which one
1963
01:16:18,000 --> 01:16:20,080
there are quite a few here i'm looking
1964
01:16:20,080 --> 01:16:21,760
at this i'm looking at this i'm looking
1965
01:16:21,760 --> 01:16:23,440
at this i'm looking at this i'm looking
1966
01:16:23,440 --> 01:16:24,960
at this
1967
01:16:24,960 --> 01:16:27,280
uh i would say the second one you know
1968
01:16:27,280 --> 01:16:30,800
the one you know marked
1969
01:16:30,880 --> 01:16:32,960
where the price
1970
01:16:32,960 --> 01:16:34,960
it reaches the lowest point
1971
01:16:34,960 --> 01:16:37,520
among that cluster of uh
1972
01:16:37,520 --> 01:16:38,640
tests
1973
01:16:38,640 --> 01:16:41,920
got it so rama is saying that this this
1974
01:16:41,920 --> 01:16:44,800
point right here is our secondary test
1975
01:16:44,800 --> 01:16:47,679
i would probably um
1976
01:16:47,679 --> 01:16:49,600
you know have an argument here with
1977
01:16:49,600 --> 01:16:51,520
urama because
1978
01:16:51,520 --> 01:16:54,080
look into this area again how did we
1979
01:16:54,080 --> 01:16:55,199
approach it
1980
01:16:55,199 --> 01:16:57,760
we approached the whole formation
1981
01:16:57,760 --> 01:16:58,640
as
1982
01:16:58,640 --> 01:17:01,199
three tests in different phases
1983
01:17:01,199 --> 01:17:03,440
and that's what i want you guys to start
1984
01:17:03,440 --> 01:17:05,760
practicing i want your eyes and your
1985
01:17:05,760 --> 01:17:08,239
mind to see this
1986
01:17:08,239 --> 01:17:12,480
there are formations that are together
1987
01:17:12,480 --> 01:17:15,199
and i'm gonna highlight this
1988
01:17:15,199 --> 01:17:17,360
here is a formation where there is an
1989
01:17:17,360 --> 01:17:20,400
action and then there is a test
1990
01:17:20,400 --> 01:17:22,640
there is a another formation where there
1991
01:17:22,640 --> 01:17:25,280
is an action and there is multiple tests
1992
01:17:25,280 --> 01:17:26,800
of this action
1993
01:17:26,800 --> 01:17:28,880
and then there is a third formation that
1994
01:17:28,880 --> 01:17:31,760
is an action and multiple tests after
1995
01:17:31,760 --> 01:17:32,800
that
1996
01:17:32,800 --> 01:17:34,880
so i want you to start thinking in these
1997
01:17:34,880 --> 01:17:36,320
terms because
1998
01:17:36,320 --> 01:17:38,400
we will be
1999
01:17:38,400 --> 01:17:40,080
defining the texture of the whole
2000
01:17:40,080 --> 01:17:43,600
trading range as you know the uh
2001
01:17:43,600 --> 01:17:45,280
construction
2002
01:17:45,280 --> 01:17:46,239
uh
2003
01:17:46,239 --> 01:17:49,360
of you know smaller pieces that come
2004
01:17:49,360 --> 01:17:50,480
together
2005
01:17:50,480 --> 01:17:51,280
and
2006
01:17:51,280 --> 01:17:53,679
locally when we say locally then we mean
2007
01:17:53,679 --> 01:17:56,000
that this test is local to the selling
2008
01:17:56,000 --> 01:17:59,360
climax or this multiple tests are local
2009
01:17:59,360 --> 01:18:01,679
to the climactic action that romer has
2010
01:18:01,679 --> 01:18:03,199
identified here
2011
01:18:03,199 --> 01:18:06,640
or maybe this tests are local to
2012
01:18:06,640 --> 01:18:08,880
you know the initial selling clinics
2013
01:18:08,880 --> 01:18:12,239
that we have here
2014
01:18:12,239 --> 01:18:14,080
rama do you see that
2015
01:18:14,080 --> 01:18:15,199
yeah
2016
01:18:15,199 --> 01:18:17,600
okay so maybe something you know to kind
2017
01:18:17,600 --> 01:18:19,600
of like work with the next homework just
2018
01:18:19,600 --> 01:18:22,239
you know identifying those areas
2019
01:18:22,239 --> 01:18:24,640
yeah different textures
2020
01:18:24,640 --> 01:18:27,199
um but different tests but you know they
2021
01:18:27,199 --> 01:18:29,440
all create the same structure okay so if
2022
01:18:29,440 --> 01:18:31,600
we're talking about different you know
2023
01:18:31,600 --> 01:18:33,040
textures and
2024
01:18:33,040 --> 01:18:34,800
structures within the logic structure
2025
01:18:34,800 --> 01:18:37,840
then as we've identified tests here and
2026
01:18:37,840 --> 01:18:40,239
identified the phases there then i could
2027
01:18:40,239 --> 01:18:43,360
say that if this is test number one
2028
01:18:43,360 --> 01:18:44,560
test number one is going to be
2029
01:18:44,560 --> 01:18:46,719
associated with phase a
2030
01:18:46,719 --> 01:18:50,159
this whole thing is test number two
2031
01:18:50,159 --> 01:18:53,040
associated with phase b then this is
2032
01:18:53,040 --> 01:18:56,560
going to be as be associated with
2033
01:18:56,560 --> 01:18:57,440
c
2034
01:18:57,440 --> 01:18:58,400
c
2035
01:18:58,400 --> 01:19:00,320
okay and that's how
2036
01:19:00,320 --> 01:19:01,440
sim
2037
01:19:01,440 --> 01:19:04,480
you know how simple it is for us to
2038
01:19:04,480 --> 01:19:06,000
think about this
2039
01:19:06,000 --> 01:19:06,800
uh
2040
01:19:06,800 --> 01:19:08,880
you know um even though it's such
2041
01:19:08,880 --> 01:19:11,120
complex structures that we see you know
2042
01:19:11,120 --> 01:19:13,520
in test number two and number three but
2043
01:19:13,520 --> 01:19:14,880
they all
2044
01:19:14,880 --> 01:19:18,480
uh actions around the same area right
2045
01:19:18,480 --> 01:19:19,679
they are all
2046
01:19:19,679 --> 01:19:23,199
uh the tests of the action that we see
2047
01:19:23,199 --> 01:19:24,320
prior
2048
01:19:24,320 --> 01:19:27,920
uh you know to test an area okay so if
2049
01:19:27,920 --> 01:19:30,719
this is the case then let's relabel this
2050
01:19:30,719 --> 01:19:32,159
phase a
2051
01:19:32,159 --> 01:19:35,120
then phase b probably goes to what to
2052
01:19:35,120 --> 01:19:37,440
this point right here right yes yeah
2053
01:19:37,440 --> 01:19:38,480
yeah
2054
01:19:38,480 --> 01:19:39,520
and then
2055
01:19:39,520 --> 01:19:41,760
phase c is gonna
2056
01:19:41,760 --> 01:19:44,320
either be concluded here or it's gonna
2057
01:19:44,320 --> 01:19:46,159
be concluded here
2058
01:19:46,159 --> 01:19:48,880
so we have two scenarios here
2059
01:19:48,880 --> 01:19:51,840
okay so how would we
2060
01:19:51,840 --> 01:19:53,280
let's say
2061
01:19:53,280 --> 01:19:55,440
is there any other labeling that we need
2062
01:19:55,440 --> 01:19:59,040
to do here where is our phase d
2063
01:19:59,199 --> 01:20:00,719
um
2064
01:20:00,719 --> 01:20:02,840
i would consider the
2065
01:20:02,840 --> 01:20:06,880
second uh c you have put there as d more
2066
01:20:06,880 --> 01:20:09,920
d rather than c okay and
2067
01:20:09,920 --> 01:20:12,320
and i would uh consider the first c to
2068
01:20:12,320 --> 01:20:15,760
be the real phase c because of the uh
2069
01:20:15,760 --> 01:20:16,480
the
2070
01:20:16,480 --> 01:20:18,719
signs of strength i see it's making
2071
01:20:18,719 --> 01:20:20,400
higher lows
2072
01:20:20,400 --> 01:20:22,639
and um
2073
01:20:22,639 --> 01:20:25,120
and that to me is the beginning of the
2074
01:20:25,120 --> 01:20:28,800
new uptrend and uh okay
2075
01:20:28,800 --> 01:20:30,840
okay yeah i like that
2076
01:20:30,840 --> 01:20:34,320
um at the same time i would say that
2077
01:20:34,320 --> 01:20:36,159
there are probably two ways of how we
2078
01:20:36,159 --> 01:20:37,679
could label this
2079
01:20:37,679 --> 01:20:40,639
uh so let's say phase d labeling
2080
01:20:40,639 --> 01:20:42,880
at this point
2081
01:20:42,880 --> 01:20:45,840
okay so two ways uh the first one is
2082
01:20:45,840 --> 01:20:48,480
exactly what rama is describing
2083
01:20:48,480 --> 01:20:52,000
we are in phase c here
2084
01:20:52,000 --> 01:20:54,480
in the smaller formation then look at
2085
01:20:54,480 --> 01:20:55,280
how
2086
01:20:55,280 --> 01:20:58,800
a rally is committing to the upside
2087
01:20:58,800 --> 01:21:01,760
over the uh what seems to be an apex
2088
01:21:01,760 --> 01:21:04,320
formation and we know that in the apex
2089
01:21:04,320 --> 01:21:06,800
formation the sign of strength is
2090
01:21:06,800 --> 01:21:09,199
actually not going to be very good you
2091
01:21:09,199 --> 01:21:10,719
know it's not going to be extremely
2092
01:21:10,719 --> 01:21:13,520
distinct but what it's going to show out
2093
01:21:13,520 --> 01:21:16,560
of the place of uncertainty
2094
01:21:16,560 --> 01:21:20,320
right where both buyers and sellers are
2095
01:21:20,320 --> 01:21:21,920
inactive
2096
01:21:21,920 --> 01:21:24,239
they just waiting for new information to
2097
01:21:24,239 --> 01:21:25,199
arrive
2098
01:21:25,199 --> 01:21:28,800
uh you know either to act on on the
2099
01:21:28,800 --> 01:21:30,960
buyers or maybe to add to the buy so
2100
01:21:30,960 --> 01:21:33,520
maybe to close the bias that they have
2101
01:21:33,520 --> 01:21:36,639
so at this point of time a small sign of
2102
01:21:36,639 --> 01:21:39,760
strength suggests that there is a little
2103
01:21:39,760 --> 01:21:42,639
bit more buyers and they you know supply
2104
01:21:42,639 --> 01:21:45,360
is exhausted at this point so we could
2105
01:21:45,360 --> 01:21:48,480
move the price much much easier
2106
01:21:48,480 --> 01:21:50,239
so a sign of strength in the apex
2107
01:21:50,239 --> 01:21:51,840
formation is always going to be that
2108
01:21:51,840 --> 01:21:53,199
small thing
2109
01:21:53,199 --> 01:21:55,520
and then the backing up action
2110
01:21:55,520 --> 01:21:58,880
comes exactly on the second reactionary
2111
01:21:58,880 --> 01:22:01,920
leg to the resist down slope and the
2112
01:22:01,920 --> 01:22:04,639
resistance so that acts as a backing up
2113
01:22:04,639 --> 01:22:07,679
action and therefore this is phase d so
2114
01:22:07,679 --> 01:22:11,440
this is what we have apex
2115
01:22:11,440 --> 01:22:13,040
and then a sign of strength that is
2116
01:22:13,040 --> 01:22:14,000
going to be
2117
01:22:14,000 --> 01:22:16,639
just a little bit small
2118
01:22:16,639 --> 01:22:18,560
and then the second label in here which
2119
01:22:18,560 --> 01:22:21,840
is also acceptable
2120
01:22:22,080 --> 01:22:25,520
is going to be more about
2121
01:22:25,520 --> 01:22:28,480
a much larger phase d right so
2122
01:22:28,480 --> 01:22:31,280
we could say that this
2123
01:22:31,280 --> 01:22:34,320
move to the upside that overcomes the up
2124
01:22:34,320 --> 01:22:36,960
thrust action and the buying climax of
2125
01:22:36,960 --> 01:22:39,679
the distribution formation
2126
01:22:39,679 --> 01:22:41,600
is a major sign of strength and by
2127
01:22:41,600 --> 01:22:43,360
definition the price goes through the
2128
01:22:43,360 --> 01:22:45,520
trading range commits to the upside and
2129
01:22:45,520 --> 01:22:47,440
look at the commitment so many closes
2130
01:22:47,440 --> 01:22:49,199
above so this is a really good
2131
01:22:49,199 --> 01:22:50,960
commitment to the upside
2132
01:22:50,960 --> 01:22:53,120
spends some time in there and then
2133
01:22:53,120 --> 01:22:55,199
reacts exactly to the area of the
2134
01:22:55,199 --> 01:22:57,679
support that acted before as the
2135
01:22:57,679 --> 01:23:00,560
resistance so therefore we could see a
2136
01:23:00,560 --> 01:23:01,920
major
2137
01:23:01,920 --> 01:23:04,800
sign of strength with the major backing
2138
01:23:04,800 --> 01:23:07,840
of action
2139
01:23:08,080 --> 01:23:10,719
and then we would identify this as a
2140
01:23:10,719 --> 01:23:14,080
minor sign of strength
2141
01:23:14,080 --> 01:23:17,280
so that labeling is also acceptable
2142
01:23:17,280 --> 01:23:20,480
please note that for triggering purposes
2143
01:23:20,480 --> 01:23:21,679
again
2144
01:23:21,679 --> 01:23:24,480
it doesn't really matter
2145
01:23:24,480 --> 01:23:25,440
why
2146
01:23:25,440 --> 01:23:28,560
well because if you're identifying this
2147
01:23:28,560 --> 01:23:30,560
as your potential phase d
2148
01:23:30,560 --> 01:23:32,840
then your position in
2149
01:23:32,840 --> 01:23:35,199
reaccumulation is going to be
2150
01:23:35,199 --> 01:23:36,719
most likely the first position is going
2151
01:23:36,719 --> 01:23:38,800
to be opened in phase c
2152
01:23:38,800 --> 01:23:41,040
your second position is going to be uh
2153
01:23:41,040 --> 01:23:42,960
and third your
2154
01:23:42,960 --> 01:23:44,960
second third and fourth position are all
2155
01:23:44,960 --> 01:23:48,480
going to be here so from one to four
2156
01:23:48,480 --> 01:23:50,400
all of this is going to be very active
2157
01:23:50,400 --> 01:23:51,840
zone for you to
2158
01:23:51,840 --> 01:23:52,960
act on
2159
01:23:52,960 --> 01:23:56,400
and then after the major uh sign of
2160
01:23:56,400 --> 01:23:58,159
strength and the major backing of action
2161
01:23:58,159 --> 01:24:00,320
that's number five
2162
01:24:00,320 --> 01:24:02,560
that you would be thinking of opening so
2163
01:24:02,560 --> 01:24:04,400
from that perspective doesn't really
2164
01:24:04,400 --> 01:24:06,960
matter you will still be operating in
2165
01:24:06,960 --> 01:24:08,239
this space
2166
01:24:08,239 --> 01:24:10,239
you know you still will be a barrier
2167
01:24:10,239 --> 01:24:11,280
here
2168
01:24:11,280 --> 01:24:14,080
all right rama really good really good
2169
01:24:14,080 --> 01:24:16,960
start i definitely feel
2170
01:24:16,960 --> 01:24:19,120
a lot of kind of like
2171
01:24:19,120 --> 01:24:21,920
knowledge that is already there
2172
01:24:21,920 --> 01:24:23,520
so a lot of
2173
01:24:23,520 --> 01:24:26,239
i also hear a lot of correct semantics
2174
01:24:26,239 --> 01:24:27,199
that are
2175
01:24:27,199 --> 01:24:29,280
associated with this course
2176
01:24:29,280 --> 01:24:30,560
you know so
2177
01:24:30,560 --> 01:24:32,159
uh you know so a lot of things so just
2178
01:24:32,159 --> 01:24:35,040
continue and for you specifically i
2179
01:24:35,040 --> 01:24:37,760
would say nuances details are going to
2180
01:24:37,760 --> 01:24:40,080
be extremely important right
2181
01:24:40,080 --> 01:24:41,520
okay so just
2182
01:24:41,520 --> 01:24:43,520
you know absorb all of this knowledge
2183
01:24:43,520 --> 01:24:46,400
and just make notes and you know
2184
01:24:46,400 --> 01:24:48,639
concentrate on those details
2185
01:24:48,639 --> 01:24:49,520
yeah
2186
01:24:49,520 --> 01:24:51,360
all right great thank you
2187
01:24:51,360 --> 01:24:52,880
thank you
2188
01:24:52,880 --> 01:24:57,360
i'm sorry around my music too okay
2189
01:24:57,440 --> 01:24:59,600
all right let's quickly look at that
2190
01:24:59,600 --> 01:25:01,760
question that we had and thank you lee
2191
01:25:01,760 --> 01:25:03,920
for sending this chart that was really
2192
01:25:03,920 --> 01:25:05,520
quick and cool and sometimes i'm going
2193
01:25:05,520 --> 01:25:07,520
to request you guys i don't want to be
2194
01:25:07,520 --> 01:25:10,320
distracted but you know you guys could
2195
01:25:10,320 --> 01:25:13,360
uh definitely quickly find what i'm
2196
01:25:13,360 --> 01:25:15,920
looking for and email me so we were
2197
01:25:15,920 --> 01:25:18,800
looking at this spread and we said that
2198
01:25:18,800 --> 01:25:20,239
most likely
2199
01:25:20,239 --> 01:25:22,159
the volume signature is going to
2200
01:25:22,159 --> 01:25:23,679
increase here
2201
01:25:23,679 --> 01:25:26,560
why well look at the gap that's number
2202
01:25:26,560 --> 01:25:28,719
one so that usually is some kind of
2203
01:25:28,719 --> 01:25:31,280
event probably all well definitely
2204
01:25:31,280 --> 01:25:32,960
overnight event
2205
01:25:32,960 --> 01:25:36,080
um where institutions have not produced
2206
01:25:36,080 --> 01:25:39,280
so much excitement before like any other
2207
01:25:39,280 --> 01:25:41,440
gaps that we see on the way up they are
2208
01:25:41,440 --> 01:25:42,880
much smaller
2209
01:25:42,880 --> 01:25:43,840
right
2210
01:25:43,840 --> 01:25:45,360
and
2211
01:25:45,360 --> 01:25:46,960
this is not a gap
2212
01:25:46,960 --> 01:25:48,560
and then
2213
01:25:48,560 --> 01:25:51,600
this is a huge gap
2214
01:25:52,080 --> 01:25:54,080
and the huge gap is always going to be
2215
01:25:54,080 --> 01:25:55,840
associated with more interest from
2216
01:25:55,840 --> 01:25:57,520
institutions and we see a continuation
2217
01:25:57,520 --> 01:25:59,920
to the upside and actually i forgot to
2218
01:25:59,920 --> 01:26:02,239
mention that you know this change of
2219
01:26:02,239 --> 01:26:03,600
character bar
2220
01:26:03,600 --> 01:26:05,840
most likely is going to have also a very
2221
01:26:05,840 --> 01:26:08,239
high volume signature just because of
2222
01:26:08,239 --> 01:26:10,560
the function of the supply that came on
2223
01:26:10,560 --> 01:26:12,880
the buying climax itself
2224
01:26:12,880 --> 01:26:15,760
so that was a really good call and then
2225
01:26:15,760 --> 01:26:16,880
also
2226
01:26:16,880 --> 01:26:18,800
this is going to be one of this
2227
01:26:18,800 --> 01:26:20,639
exercises that i'm going to give you
2228
01:26:20,639 --> 01:26:22,400
guys in the practical
2229
01:26:22,400 --> 01:26:24,400
when you're going to graduate to more
2230
01:26:24,400 --> 01:26:26,239
advanced level
2231
01:26:26,239 --> 01:26:28,880
one of the things that we practice in
2232
01:26:28,880 --> 01:26:32,320
the practicum course is
2233
01:26:32,320 --> 01:26:34,840
reading the volume signature of the
2234
01:26:34,840 --> 01:26:38,960
price and reading price signature of the
2235
01:26:38,960 --> 01:26:40,880
volume
2236
01:26:40,880 --> 01:26:44,320
what it does it kind of opens up the new
2237
01:26:44,320 --> 01:26:46,639
dimension of understanding
2238
01:26:46,639 --> 01:26:49,360
as to what do we expect the volume on
2239
01:26:49,360 --> 01:26:50,960
the price to be
2240
01:26:50,960 --> 01:26:53,280
on the specific bar whether it's the
2241
01:26:53,280 --> 01:26:55,360
price or the volume bar
2242
01:26:55,360 --> 01:26:57,760
and that's exactly what i did here just
2243
01:26:57,760 --> 01:27:00,800
kind of like deducing as to what kind of
2244
01:27:00,800 --> 01:27:03,520
volume signature could be at this
2245
01:27:03,520 --> 01:27:06,480
contextual place with this particular
2246
01:27:06,480 --> 01:27:08,159
bar
2247
01:27:08,159 --> 01:27:10,159
all right great
2248
01:27:10,159 --> 01:27:12,320
uh let's
2249
01:27:12,320 --> 01:27:13,120
let's
2250
01:27:13,120 --> 01:27:17,480
look at some questions really quick
2251
01:27:24,320 --> 01:27:26,480
uh which is the different uh what is the
2252
01:27:26,480 --> 01:27:28,800
difference between labeling secondary
2253
01:27:28,800 --> 01:27:31,199
tests after the selling climax so label
2254
01:27:31,199 --> 01:27:34,320
in a shakeout recumulation versus
2255
01:27:34,320 --> 01:27:37,920
shakeout schematic okay yeah um so this
2256
01:27:37,920 --> 01:27:41,280
was the question here um selling climax
2257
01:27:41,280 --> 01:27:44,239
automatic rally could we possibly label
2258
01:27:44,239 --> 01:27:48,000
this as a shakeout um yeah we can um
2259
01:27:48,000 --> 01:27:50,400
usually the shakeout
2260
01:27:50,400 --> 01:27:52,320
in the reaccumulation is something where
2261
01:27:52,320 --> 01:27:54,320
we have the buying climax
2262
01:27:54,320 --> 01:27:57,600
and then we have some kind of shakeout
2263
01:27:57,600 --> 01:27:59,440
right away
2264
01:27:59,440 --> 01:28:02,000
we don't have it here we have a buying
2265
01:28:02,000 --> 01:28:05,040
climax and then we have an area of the
2266
01:28:05,040 --> 01:28:06,560
distribution
2267
01:28:06,560 --> 01:28:08,239
and that usually suggests that
2268
01:28:08,239 --> 01:28:10,080
distribution usually suggests what
2269
01:28:10,080 --> 01:28:11,360
there's going to be some kind of
2270
01:28:11,360 --> 01:28:13,360
downtrend that's going to come and
2271
01:28:13,360 --> 01:28:15,520
downtrend is going to be
2272
01:28:15,520 --> 01:28:17,760
concluded with the stop in action which
2273
01:28:17,760 --> 01:28:19,360
is going to be labeled by us as a
2274
01:28:19,360 --> 01:28:22,239
selling climax so my preference in this
2275
01:28:22,239 --> 01:28:24,320
particular case would be just to label
2276
01:28:24,320 --> 01:28:27,199
this as a cell in climax and extend the
2277
01:28:27,199 --> 01:28:28,800
boundaries you know from the selling
2278
01:28:28,800 --> 01:28:31,360
climax and uh from the automatic
2279
01:28:31,360 --> 01:28:34,159
reaction or automatic rally or rather
2280
01:28:34,159 --> 01:28:36,800
and then in the air in the uh
2281
01:28:36,800 --> 01:28:39,440
reaccumulation structures where we have
2282
01:28:39,440 --> 01:28:41,199
a very quick move to the downside
2283
01:28:41,199 --> 01:28:43,040
without a lot of the distributional
2284
01:28:43,040 --> 01:28:45,120
activity you know you could say like
2285
01:28:45,120 --> 01:28:47,199
okay this could be interpreted as a
2286
01:28:47,199 --> 01:28:50,400
shakeout action i will keep this in mind
2287
01:28:50,400 --> 01:28:52,639
and i will point this maybe on other
2288
01:28:52,639 --> 01:28:54,159
slides
2289
01:28:54,159 --> 01:28:57,840
okay next one
2290
01:29:02,320 --> 01:29:06,239
uh if we were in september
2291
01:29:07,040 --> 01:29:09,679
and i'm assuming what september where
2292
01:29:09,679 --> 01:29:11,520
this september or
2293
01:29:11,520 --> 01:29:15,679
and this question comes from philip
2294
01:29:15,679 --> 01:29:18,239
or this september okay so probably this
2295
01:29:18,239 --> 01:29:19,440
one right here
2296
01:29:19,440 --> 01:29:21,360
so um
2297
01:29:21,360 --> 01:29:23,199
if we were in september wouldn't we
2298
01:29:23,199 --> 01:29:26,560
interpret the rally
2299
01:29:29,440 --> 01:29:32,880
as a phase d with backing up action
2300
01:29:32,880 --> 01:29:35,600
right before september this one right
2301
01:29:35,600 --> 01:29:38,600
here
2302
01:29:39,040 --> 01:29:41,280
okay and the backing up action to what
2303
01:29:41,280 --> 01:29:44,719
to which range to this one
2304
01:29:49,440 --> 01:29:53,840
so backing up action should be
2305
01:29:54,159 --> 01:29:57,679
coming back to deformation right
2306
01:29:57,679 --> 01:29:59,600
to their original information so we have
2307
01:29:59,600 --> 01:30:01,679
for instance
2308
01:30:01,679 --> 01:30:03,120
we could say that
2309
01:30:03,120 --> 01:30:07,040
here we have a minor backing up action
2310
01:30:07,040 --> 01:30:09,040
and it's a part of this formation then
2311
01:30:09,040 --> 01:30:13,040
we have a larger backing up action
2312
01:30:13,040 --> 01:30:14,000
major
2313
01:30:14,000 --> 01:30:16,960
backing up action and it's a part still
2314
01:30:16,960 --> 01:30:18,840
of this whole formation
2315
01:30:18,840 --> 01:30:20,400
uh
2316
01:30:20,400 --> 01:30:22,719
you know if if we would have some kind
2317
01:30:22,719 --> 01:30:24,800
of you know
2318
01:30:24,800 --> 01:30:26,639
formation that would be something like
2319
01:30:26,639 --> 01:30:27,920
this where
2320
01:30:27,920 --> 01:30:29,840
you know we've seen that maybe this
2321
01:30:29,840 --> 01:30:31,679
whole move is a sign of strength and
2322
01:30:31,679 --> 01:30:34,159
then this is a backing up action that
2323
01:30:34,159 --> 01:30:36,560
has its own trading range then probably
2324
01:30:36,560 --> 01:30:39,199
yes uh we could do this i think it's
2325
01:30:39,199 --> 01:30:42,320
less obvious in this case uh philip so i
2326
01:30:42,320 --> 01:30:44,800
probably would be just thinking that uh
2327
01:30:44,800 --> 01:30:47,120
you know it's just a trading range on
2328
01:30:47,120 --> 01:30:50,000
its own it's a reaccumulation
2329
01:30:50,000 --> 01:30:52,639
we had an accumulation range you move up
2330
01:30:52,639 --> 01:30:53,840
and now we are just in the
2331
01:30:53,840 --> 01:30:55,600
reaccumulation
2332
01:30:55,600 --> 01:30:59,120
okay but good clarifying question there
2333
01:30:59,120 --> 01:31:01,280
is it common that one can identify
2334
01:31:01,280 --> 01:31:03,920
phases of the larger range with smaller
2335
01:31:03,920 --> 01:31:07,600
local ranges within that larger range uh
2336
01:31:07,600 --> 01:31:09,120
yeah um
2337
01:31:09,120 --> 01:31:11,280
we could definitely do this one of the
2338
01:31:11,280 --> 01:31:13,920
things you know again to do is that you
2339
01:31:13,920 --> 01:31:16,400
know texture analysis right so
2340
01:31:16,400 --> 01:31:18,480
if you could instantly see that there
2341
01:31:18,480 --> 01:31:21,199
are smaller ranges here that could be
2342
01:31:21,199 --> 01:31:23,440
labeled by the way i mean look at this
2343
01:31:23,440 --> 01:31:26,080
cell in climax automatic rally secondary
2344
01:31:26,080 --> 01:31:27,199
test
2345
01:31:27,199 --> 01:31:28,320
phase a
2346
01:31:28,320 --> 01:31:29,679
b b
2347
01:31:29,679 --> 01:31:30,560
c
2348
01:31:30,560 --> 01:31:32,800
sign of strength backing up action or
2349
01:31:32,800 --> 01:31:34,239
lps
2350
01:31:34,239 --> 01:31:36,960
um major sign of strength major backing
2351
01:31:36,960 --> 01:31:38,159
up action
2352
01:31:38,159 --> 01:31:40,159
cell and climax automatic rally
2353
01:31:40,159 --> 01:31:42,840
secondary test phase a b
2354
01:31:42,840 --> 01:31:45,520
b uh c
2355
01:31:45,520 --> 01:31:47,120
sign of strength
2356
01:31:47,120 --> 01:31:49,840
uh shakeout type of reaction in d
2357
01:31:49,840 --> 01:31:51,440
lps
2358
01:31:51,440 --> 01:31:54,239
here we go this one cell in climax
2359
01:31:54,239 --> 01:31:58,560
automatic rally secondary test phase a b
2360
01:31:58,560 --> 01:32:00,239
c
2361
01:32:00,239 --> 01:32:01,120
uh
2362
01:32:01,120 --> 01:32:03,920
lps and so on so forth so you could see
2363
01:32:03,920 --> 01:32:06,320
how you could label
2364
01:32:06,320 --> 01:32:08,880
uh even smaller structures and again you
2365
01:32:08,880 --> 01:32:10,480
know we could label this structure right
2366
01:32:10,480 --> 01:32:12,480
here we could label this structure right
2367
01:32:12,480 --> 01:32:14,239
here this structure right here this
2368
01:32:14,239 --> 01:32:16,320
structure right here
2369
01:32:16,320 --> 01:32:18,239
everywhere there are trillion ranges if
2370
01:32:18,239 --> 01:32:20,960
you just get this concept
2371
01:32:20,960 --> 01:32:23,760
that you look at the markets through the
2372
01:32:23,760 --> 01:32:25,840
prism of different structures whether
2373
01:32:25,840 --> 01:32:26,560
it's
2374
01:32:26,560 --> 01:32:29,280
a trend or non-trend whether it's at the
2375
01:32:29,280 --> 01:32:31,840
higher larger time frame like you know a
2376
01:32:31,840 --> 01:32:33,360
large formation
2377
01:32:33,360 --> 01:32:36,080
or a smaller formation like this three
2378
01:32:36,080 --> 01:32:37,760
that i've shown you by the way here is
2379
01:32:37,760 --> 01:32:39,600
another range here is another range
2380
01:32:39,600 --> 01:32:42,320
right so all of those are just
2381
01:32:42,320 --> 01:32:44,639
ranges between the swings
2382
01:32:44,639 --> 01:32:46,560
of the trading range if you can
2383
01:32:46,560 --> 01:32:48,480
understand this concept and it kind of
2384
01:32:48,480 --> 01:32:50,400
becomes natural to you
2385
01:32:50,400 --> 01:32:52,080
you will start looking at the market in
2386
01:32:52,080 --> 01:32:54,719
a different way and usually
2387
01:32:54,719 --> 01:32:56,639
um during the first months you know i
2388
01:32:56,639 --> 01:32:58,480
receive a lot of emails from students
2389
01:32:58,480 --> 01:33:01,040
that just say like oh my gosh
2390
01:33:01,040 --> 01:33:02,880
i look at the markets i look at this
2391
01:33:02,880 --> 01:33:05,360
chart and all i see is just all of those
2392
01:33:05,360 --> 01:33:07,440
formations and it
2393
01:33:07,440 --> 01:33:10,080
so much easier for me now to interpret
2394
01:33:10,080 --> 01:33:12,480
the market action you know through those
2395
01:33:12,480 --> 01:33:14,320
formations so hopefully we'll get to
2396
01:33:14,320 --> 01:33:16,880
this point
2397
01:33:17,120 --> 01:33:20,239
all right um
2398
01:33:20,239 --> 01:33:23,840
okay what else
2399
01:33:25,360 --> 01:33:27,679
okay so a comment from
2400
01:33:27,679 --> 01:33:28,560
dog
2401
01:33:28,560 --> 01:33:30,050
actually um
2402
01:33:30,050 --> 01:33:33,109
[Music]
2403
01:33:33,600 --> 01:33:36,560
preliminary supply in may
2404
01:33:36,560 --> 01:33:38,800
and then
2405
01:33:38,800 --> 01:33:42,159
buying climax in july so
2406
01:33:42,159 --> 01:33:44,400
two to two
2407
01:33:44,400 --> 01:33:46,639
what are we looking at this
2408
01:33:46,639 --> 01:33:49,520
preliminary uh supply
2409
01:33:49,520 --> 01:33:50,320
doug
2410
01:33:50,320 --> 01:33:52,080
is this is this the one is this
2411
01:33:52,080 --> 01:33:54,159
deformation that we look at and buying
2412
01:33:54,159 --> 01:33:56,000
climax in july
2413
01:33:56,000 --> 01:33:58,480
like this
2414
01:34:00,960 --> 01:34:05,560
what's that your interpretation dog
2415
01:34:06,719 --> 01:34:08,719
to the right for
2416
01:34:08,719 --> 01:34:12,719
this is the preliminary supply this
2417
01:34:15,600 --> 01:34:16,480
okay
2418
01:34:16,480 --> 01:34:19,679
great okay so um so darker suggestion
2419
01:34:19,679 --> 01:34:21,520
what about this type of labeling right
2420
01:34:21,520 --> 01:34:24,239
so buy and climax then obviously we
2421
01:34:24,239 --> 01:34:26,400
could go with either cell and climax or
2422
01:34:26,400 --> 01:34:28,960
we could go this whole thing with the
2423
01:34:28,960 --> 01:34:31,360
automatic reaction and then secondary
2424
01:34:31,360 --> 01:34:34,159
test this could be phase a
2425
01:34:34,159 --> 01:34:36,239
and then let's say phase b
2426
01:34:36,239 --> 01:34:37,920
and then phase c
2427
01:34:37,920 --> 01:34:40,159
uh
2428
01:34:40,320 --> 01:34:42,800
on the level of trading
2429
01:34:42,800 --> 01:34:46,960
because we will be trading here
2430
01:34:46,960 --> 01:34:48,800
that doesn't really matter
2431
01:34:48,800 --> 01:34:51,040
and if you label it like that that's
2432
01:34:51,040 --> 01:34:53,520
fine where i have the problem with this
2433
01:34:53,520 --> 01:34:57,440
labeling is these two points right here
2434
01:34:57,440 --> 01:35:00,400
so i'm going to redo this a little bit
2435
01:35:00,400 --> 01:35:02,639
and then you'll see what i mean
2436
01:35:02,639 --> 01:35:03,600
so
2437
01:35:03,600 --> 01:35:05,440
let's say that we're still in the
2438
01:35:05,440 --> 01:35:07,760
automatic reaction secondary test phase
2439
01:35:07,760 --> 01:35:09,119
a
2440
01:35:09,119 --> 01:35:11,360
and then it goes into phase b
2441
01:35:11,360 --> 01:35:13,840
and phase c this is doesn't really
2442
01:35:13,840 --> 01:35:17,760
matter to us but what comes before
2443
01:35:17,760 --> 01:35:20,960
when we put let's say a buy in climax
2444
01:35:20,960 --> 01:35:22,400
right here
2445
01:35:22,400 --> 01:35:23,920
as this point
2446
01:35:23,920 --> 01:35:27,199
we're basically neglecting the fact that
2447
01:35:27,199 --> 01:35:29,199
the buying climax characteristics
2448
01:35:29,199 --> 01:35:31,199
happened before that and we went through
2449
01:35:31,199 --> 01:35:34,080
those a gap acceleration to the upside
2450
01:35:34,080 --> 01:35:36,639
climactic run acceleration of momentum
2451
01:35:36,639 --> 01:35:38,719
extreme volume signature which just
2452
01:35:38,719 --> 01:35:41,119
basically screams at you
2453
01:35:41,119 --> 01:35:42,400
and tells you that
2454
01:35:42,400 --> 01:35:44,960
if it stops on this climactic action a
2455
01:35:44,960 --> 01:35:47,440
climactic volume then most likely this
2456
01:35:47,440 --> 01:35:51,440
is a climax so it's the character
2457
01:35:51,440 --> 01:35:53,520
that does not allow us to say that this
2458
01:35:53,520 --> 01:35:55,520
is a violent climax
2459
01:35:55,520 --> 01:35:57,040
so therefore
2460
01:35:57,040 --> 01:35:59,679
the second point here is that it has its
2461
01:35:59,679 --> 01:36:01,119
own formation
2462
01:36:01,119 --> 01:36:03,520
so what is the bias of this formation
2463
01:36:03,520 --> 01:36:05,119
the bias of this formation is the
2464
01:36:05,119 --> 01:36:07,280
distribution so therefore we would be
2465
01:36:07,280 --> 01:36:10,719
labeling this as an up thrust in phase c
2466
01:36:10,719 --> 01:36:12,560
so therefore the preliminary supply is
2467
01:36:12,560 --> 01:36:15,119
going to come somewhere here
2468
01:36:15,119 --> 01:36:17,119
so that's the only thing that i would
2469
01:36:17,119 --> 01:36:19,520
redo but everything else again for
2470
01:36:19,520 --> 01:36:21,920
trading purposes you could say that this
2471
01:36:21,920 --> 01:36:22,840
whole
2472
01:36:22,840 --> 01:36:25,520
thing is the pine climax so sometimes i
2473
01:36:25,520 --> 01:36:27,840
would say bind climax trading range what
2474
01:36:27,840 --> 01:36:29,520
does it mean this means some kind of
2475
01:36:29,520 --> 01:36:32,000
distribution local formation that would
2476
01:36:32,000 --> 01:36:33,360
take us down
2477
01:36:33,360 --> 01:36:34,560
uh but
2478
01:36:34,560 --> 01:36:37,199
you know i would never i would probably
2479
01:36:37,199 --> 01:36:39,440
not identify this necessarily as a
2480
01:36:39,440 --> 01:36:41,520
buying client so this whole thing you
2481
01:36:41,520 --> 01:36:44,080
could say a buying climax trading range
2482
01:36:44,080 --> 01:36:45,360
all right
2483
01:36:45,360 --> 01:36:47,199
great thank you doug
2484
01:36:47,199 --> 01:36:51,000
and what else
2485
01:36:52,719 --> 01:36:55,360
i thought that phase in phase d i should
2486
01:36:55,360 --> 01:36:57,840
search for biggest rally of the whole
2487
01:36:57,840 --> 01:36:59,600
range starting from the support level so
2488
01:36:59,600 --> 01:37:01,920
the part of uh the first phase c should
2489
01:37:01,920 --> 01:37:04,239
be in phase d so from philip so we're
2490
01:37:04,239 --> 01:37:08,239
talking about this spot okay so yes
2491
01:37:08,239 --> 01:37:12,480
when we look at the horizontal range
2492
01:37:12,480 --> 01:37:14,400
we're looking at the sign of strength
2493
01:37:14,400 --> 01:37:16,560
and the backing up action
2494
01:37:16,560 --> 01:37:20,480
as our you know change of character
2495
01:37:20,480 --> 01:37:22,320
uh confirmation
2496
01:37:22,320 --> 01:37:24,800
and usually the sign of strength rally
2497
01:37:24,800 --> 01:37:27,520
will be the largest rally
2498
01:37:27,520 --> 01:37:30,400
in this whole trading range
2499
01:37:30,400 --> 01:37:32,880
and that's in the horizontal formation
2500
01:37:32,880 --> 01:37:35,520
like this right in the
2501
01:37:35,520 --> 01:37:38,639
apex formation
2502
01:37:40,880 --> 01:37:44,960
where there is a lot of inactivity
2503
01:37:45,679 --> 01:37:49,040
by market participants as small as sign
2504
01:37:49,040 --> 01:37:50,480
of strength
2505
01:37:50,480 --> 01:37:52,880
uh you know could be that timing
2506
01:37:52,880 --> 01:37:54,639
mechanism that defines a change of
2507
01:37:54,639 --> 01:37:57,840
character so we would be looking at the
2508
01:37:57,840 --> 01:37:58,719
um
2509
01:37:58,719 --> 01:38:01,199
at all of the rallies that occur after
2510
01:38:01,199 --> 01:38:03,920
the last point where supply has
2511
01:38:03,920 --> 01:38:06,719
increased or supply has produced
2512
01:38:06,719 --> 01:38:08,960
some kind of downward result that was
2513
01:38:08,960 --> 01:38:11,119
exceeding the result to the downside
2514
01:38:11,119 --> 01:38:12,159
before
2515
01:38:12,159 --> 01:38:15,360
and we see that the rally there
2516
01:38:15,360 --> 01:38:18,560
this rally is basically the best rally
2517
01:38:18,560 --> 01:38:21,440
that we see in in this formation
2518
01:38:21,440 --> 01:38:24,080
so it's a little bit of a nuance
2519
01:38:24,080 --> 01:38:26,400
we'll talk about this later on
2520
01:38:26,400 --> 01:38:28,159
but i'm so happy that you guys are
2521
01:38:28,159 --> 01:38:30,000
seeing this that you're asking the
2522
01:38:30,000 --> 01:38:31,440
correct questions
2523
01:38:31,440 --> 01:38:33,440
because if you're asking the correct
2524
01:38:33,440 --> 01:38:35,600
question this means that you know the
2525
01:38:35,600 --> 01:38:38,159
logic that we explained before was also
2526
01:38:38,159 --> 01:38:40,080
you know good and we just did not cover
2527
01:38:40,080 --> 01:38:42,400
this so that's great all right so really
2528
01:38:42,400 --> 01:38:45,840
good exercise all right
2529
01:38:45,840 --> 01:38:49,920
okay so um with each of these slides for
2530
01:38:49,920 --> 01:38:52,000
the homework i'm gonna give you guys my
2531
01:38:52,000 --> 01:38:54,080
interpretation and you could go through
2532
01:38:54,080 --> 01:38:55,360
this
2533
01:38:55,360 --> 01:38:57,600
as a homework and just um you know
2534
01:38:57,600 --> 01:39:00,239
observe all of the labeling that i've
2535
01:39:00,239 --> 01:39:01,840
done here
2536
01:39:01,840 --> 01:39:04,239
in these boxes gray boxes i'm
2537
01:39:04,239 --> 01:39:05,840
identifying
2538
01:39:05,840 --> 01:39:08,480
changes of character
2539
01:39:08,480 --> 01:39:13,159
and so on so forth so um
2540
01:39:13,920 --> 01:39:16,320
hopefully that's helpful now let's talk
2541
01:39:16,320 --> 01:39:18,880
about phase boundaries so this is that
2542
01:39:18,880 --> 01:39:20,320
theoretical slide that we're going to
2543
01:39:20,320 --> 01:39:21,600
have and we're talking about
2544
01:39:21,600 --> 01:39:24,400
accumulation here
2545
01:39:24,400 --> 01:39:26,560
so how do we define phase boundaries
2546
01:39:26,560 --> 01:39:28,000
it's extremely important for us to
2547
01:39:28,000 --> 01:39:29,199
understand
2548
01:39:29,199 --> 01:39:31,920
where we put the boundary and sometimes
2549
01:39:31,920 --> 01:39:34,159
it becomes so subjective that
2550
01:39:34,159 --> 01:39:35,840
um as i was
2551
01:39:35,840 --> 01:39:37,360
receiving so many questions from
2552
01:39:37,360 --> 01:39:40,080
students i realized that um i need to
2553
01:39:40,080 --> 01:39:42,159
kind of like you know stop all of this
2554
01:39:42,159 --> 01:39:44,719
discretion discretionary talk as to
2555
01:39:44,719 --> 01:39:46,560
where we are putting the batteries and
2556
01:39:46,560 --> 01:39:48,960
that just to define exactly
2557
01:39:48,960 --> 01:39:50,800
where we would put that
2558
01:39:50,800 --> 01:39:52,960
border between phases
2559
01:39:52,960 --> 01:39:55,679
so let's go through this and we're going
2560
01:39:55,679 --> 01:39:57,280
to start with something slightly
2561
01:39:57,280 --> 01:39:59,600
different the first thing and this is
2562
01:39:59,600 --> 01:40:02,320
one of the most important thing
2563
01:40:02,320 --> 01:40:04,639
right now at this point of the course
2564
01:40:04,639 --> 01:40:06,400
that i want you to remember
2565
01:40:06,400 --> 01:40:09,679
i wanted to remember by heart the
2566
01:40:09,679 --> 01:40:12,239
sequence of wike of events
2567
01:40:12,239 --> 01:40:14,000
uh throughout all of the phases in
2568
01:40:14,000 --> 01:40:16,639
accumulation and the distribution
2569
01:40:16,639 --> 01:40:18,800
and uh therefore i just want you to
2570
01:40:18,800 --> 01:40:20,880
remember that phase a is going to start
2571
01:40:20,880 --> 01:40:23,679
with the preliminary supply of support
2572
01:40:23,679 --> 01:40:25,440
go into the stop in action by the
2573
01:40:25,440 --> 01:40:26,880
selling climax
2574
01:40:26,880 --> 01:40:28,800
change of character as an automatic
2575
01:40:28,800 --> 01:40:30,719
rally and confirmation of that change of
2576
01:40:30,719 --> 01:40:32,719
character as a secondary test that
2577
01:40:32,719 --> 01:40:34,560
secondary test is going to be a local
2578
01:40:34,560 --> 01:40:36,960
test and test number one to the salen
2579
01:40:36,960 --> 01:40:39,440
climax
2580
01:40:40,000 --> 01:40:41,360
phase b
2581
01:40:41,360 --> 01:40:44,080
is going to have in the accumulation
2582
01:40:44,080 --> 01:40:46,880
either a secondary test
2583
01:40:46,880 --> 01:40:49,679
at the support level
2584
01:40:49,679 --> 01:40:53,520
or an upthrust action
2585
01:40:54,000 --> 01:40:57,520
at the resistance level so these two are
2586
01:40:57,520 --> 01:41:00,000
mechanisms of testing
2587
01:41:00,000 --> 01:41:02,080
testing what testing both supply and
2588
01:41:02,080 --> 01:41:04,320
demand at the support and the resistance
2589
01:41:04,320 --> 01:41:05,440
level
2590
01:41:05,440 --> 01:41:09,119
in in the instances when the price is
2591
01:41:09,119 --> 01:41:11,119
going to overcome the resistance we're
2592
01:41:11,119 --> 01:41:12,639
going to say that
2593
01:41:12,639 --> 01:41:14,400
we're looking at the up thrust action
2594
01:41:14,400 --> 01:41:16,320
sometimes i label it as
2595
01:41:16,320 --> 01:41:19,679
up thrust action like this uta
2596
01:41:19,679 --> 01:41:20,560
um
2597
01:41:20,560 --> 01:41:23,360
and then if we are going to have a lower
2598
01:41:23,360 --> 01:41:25,199
low then we're going to label it as a
2599
01:41:25,199 --> 01:41:26,960
secondary test
2600
01:41:26,960 --> 01:41:29,280
as a sign of weakness as a minus sign of
2601
01:41:29,280 --> 01:41:31,360
weakness actually yeah some small
2602
01:41:31,360 --> 01:41:33,600
corrections here are needed
2603
01:41:33,600 --> 01:41:34,800
phase c
2604
01:41:34,800 --> 01:41:36,800
is going to have either a high low and
2605
01:41:36,800 --> 01:41:38,800
we're going to label it as a last point
2606
01:41:38,800 --> 01:41:41,760
of support or it's going to have a low
2607
01:41:41,760 --> 01:41:43,600
low and then we will be talking about
2608
01:41:43,600 --> 01:41:46,639
either a spring or a shakeout
2609
01:41:46,639 --> 01:41:50,880
phase c also could have as a test not
2610
01:41:50,880 --> 01:41:53,760
necessarily a secondary test but a local
2611
01:41:53,760 --> 01:41:55,520
test to a sprint
2612
01:41:55,520 --> 01:41:58,000
or a shakeout
2613
01:41:58,000 --> 01:41:59,360
phase d
2614
01:41:59,360 --> 01:42:00,800
is going to have
2615
01:42:00,800 --> 01:42:02,960
last point of
2616
01:42:02,960 --> 01:42:05,600
support sign of strength bar
2617
01:42:05,600 --> 01:42:07,600
sign of strength rally and the backing
2618
01:42:07,600 --> 01:42:10,000
up action usually phase d will be
2619
01:42:10,000 --> 01:42:11,040
discussed
2620
01:42:11,040 --> 01:42:13,040
mostly around sign of strength rally and
2621
01:42:13,040 --> 01:42:15,360
the backing up action a sign of strength
2622
01:42:15,360 --> 01:42:16,400
bar
2623
01:42:16,400 --> 01:42:18,639
has been added you know to them to the
2624
01:42:18,639 --> 01:42:20,960
methodology by me just you know for the
2625
01:42:20,960 --> 01:42:22,639
class purposes
2626
01:42:22,639 --> 01:42:24,639
this is the spot where in the middle of
2627
01:42:24,639 --> 01:42:28,400
the range we're identifying emergence of
2628
01:42:28,400 --> 01:42:31,600
institutional urgency to buy to be in
2629
01:42:31,600 --> 01:42:34,000
this position and this is one of the
2630
01:42:34,000 --> 01:42:36,800
points of entry for us in accumulation
2631
01:42:36,800 --> 01:42:39,679
on the way up we'll talk about this more
2632
01:42:39,679 --> 01:42:41,520
last point of supports are going to be
2633
01:42:41,520 --> 01:42:44,080
all of the reactionary laws
2634
01:42:44,080 --> 01:42:45,920
on the sign of strength rally that
2635
01:42:45,920 --> 01:42:48,080
present some kind of buying opportunity
2636
01:42:48,080 --> 01:42:49,600
those are going to be short-term
2637
01:42:49,600 --> 01:42:50,639
weakness
2638
01:42:50,639 --> 01:42:53,119
situations where we're going to say that
2639
01:42:53,119 --> 01:42:53,840
the
2640
01:42:53,840 --> 01:42:56,639
long-term bias is to the upside but the
2641
01:42:56,639 --> 01:42:58,719
short-term bias has some kind of
2642
01:42:58,719 --> 01:43:01,920
weakness bearish
2643
01:43:03,199 --> 01:43:06,000
bearish bias behind it and those are
2644
01:43:06,000 --> 01:43:07,440
going to be the spots that are going to
2645
01:43:07,440 --> 01:43:10,000
be associated with establishing or
2646
01:43:10,000 --> 01:43:13,199
adding to the position
2647
01:43:13,360 --> 01:43:15,360
then we've talked about two changes of
2648
01:43:15,360 --> 01:43:17,920
character in the ray accumulation
2649
01:43:17,920 --> 01:43:19,520
and um
2650
01:43:19,520 --> 01:43:22,400
you know originally again
2651
01:43:22,400 --> 01:43:24,639
i've talked about this
2652
01:43:24,639 --> 01:43:27,119
originally when i was studying like of
2653
01:43:27,119 --> 01:43:29,840
method and you know hank was introducing
2654
01:43:29,840 --> 01:43:32,400
me to this concept hank had a concept of
2655
01:43:32,400 --> 01:43:35,520
the change of behavior he never actually
2656
01:43:35,520 --> 01:43:37,360
specifically talked about the change of
2657
01:43:37,360 --> 01:43:40,080
character so change of behavior was
2658
01:43:40,080 --> 01:43:41,600
basically
2659
01:43:41,600 --> 01:43:44,239
identified in
2660
01:43:44,239 --> 01:43:45,119
late
2661
01:43:45,119 --> 01:43:46,560
phase b
2662
01:43:46,560 --> 01:43:47,679
and
2663
01:43:47,679 --> 01:43:49,520
in phase c
2664
01:43:49,520 --> 01:43:51,440
and in phase d
2665
01:43:51,440 --> 01:43:55,760
and what hank was talking about is
2666
01:43:56,000 --> 01:43:58,639
a changing behavior as
2667
01:43:58,639 --> 01:43:59,679
uh
2668
01:43:59,679 --> 01:44:03,520
behavior on the rally could become more
2669
01:44:03,520 --> 01:44:04,880
bullish
2670
01:44:04,880 --> 01:44:06,560
um
2671
01:44:06,560 --> 01:44:08,719
and then behavior on the reactions at
2672
01:44:08,719 --> 01:44:10,800
some point could become more bullish as
2673
01:44:10,800 --> 01:44:12,239
well so for instance when we look at
2674
01:44:12,239 --> 01:44:14,080
this chart
2675
01:44:14,080 --> 01:44:17,360
and we look let's say maybe at
2676
01:44:17,360 --> 01:44:19,840
this reaction right here for the first
2677
01:44:19,840 --> 01:44:22,560
time reaction creates a higher low
2678
01:44:22,560 --> 01:44:25,199
so that's a change of behavior it's not
2679
01:44:25,199 --> 01:44:27,840
necessarily a change of structure
2680
01:44:27,840 --> 01:44:29,760
because the change of character is a
2681
01:44:29,760 --> 01:44:31,760
change of structure but the change of
2682
01:44:31,760 --> 01:44:34,800
behavior is not necessarily as a change
2683
01:44:34,800 --> 01:44:37,040
of structure per se you know where we
2684
01:44:37,040 --> 01:44:38,880
are um
2685
01:44:38,880 --> 01:44:41,440
where we are uh confirming the best
2686
01:44:41,440 --> 01:44:43,440
rally the sequence between the best
2687
01:44:43,440 --> 01:44:46,000
rally and the best reaction right so
2688
01:44:46,000 --> 01:44:48,880
here's that sequence the best rally and
2689
01:44:48,880 --> 01:44:49,679
then
2690
01:44:49,679 --> 01:44:51,360
the best reaction
2691
01:44:51,360 --> 01:44:52,960
so here it is
2692
01:44:52,960 --> 01:44:55,199
throughout this whole range
2693
01:44:55,199 --> 01:44:56,320
so that
2694
01:44:56,320 --> 01:44:58,159
is a change of character but change of
2695
01:44:58,159 --> 01:45:00,800
behavior could be just a better rally
2696
01:45:00,800 --> 01:45:03,520
and then the reaction is still bearish
2697
01:45:03,520 --> 01:45:04,320
or
2698
01:45:04,320 --> 01:45:06,480
um usual rally and then a better
2699
01:45:06,480 --> 01:45:07,840
reaction
2700
01:45:07,840 --> 01:45:10,480
so that would be a change of behavior
2701
01:45:10,480 --> 01:45:12,080
there are two changes of character that
2702
01:45:12,080 --> 01:45:13,920
i mentioned our first change of
2703
01:45:13,920 --> 01:45:16,000
character is going to be associated um
2704
01:45:16,000 --> 01:45:17,360
with phase in
2705
01:45:17,360 --> 01:45:19,760
with phase a so it's the change of
2706
01:45:19,760 --> 01:45:20,800
character
2707
01:45:20,800 --> 01:45:21,600
in
2708
01:45:21,600 --> 01:45:24,159
into the trading range and uh it's going
2709
01:45:24,159 --> 01:45:26,560
to be defined as the rally between a
2710
01:45:26,560 --> 01:45:29,360
selling climax and automatic rally
2711
01:45:29,360 --> 01:45:31,360
and it's going to be confirmed by this
2712
01:45:31,360 --> 01:45:33,440
secondary test
2713
01:45:33,440 --> 01:45:36,080
and then the second change of character
2714
01:45:36,080 --> 01:45:37,679
is going to be
2715
01:45:37,679 --> 01:45:40,560
on the way out of the trading range
2716
01:45:40,560 --> 01:45:42,400
in phase d and that's going to be a
2717
01:45:42,400 --> 01:45:44,800
rally between phase c low and sign of
2718
01:45:44,800 --> 01:45:47,520
strength rally high so here's the high
2719
01:45:47,520 --> 01:45:49,840
here's the low here's that change of
2720
01:45:49,840 --> 01:45:52,000
character and it's being confirmed by
2721
01:45:52,000 --> 01:45:55,760
the backing up action after that
2722
01:45:57,040 --> 01:45:59,119
phase boundaries so this is very
2723
01:45:59,119 --> 01:46:00,159
important
2724
01:46:00,159 --> 01:46:03,360
this is something that i was looking at
2725
01:46:03,360 --> 01:46:06,239
in all of your homeworks today
2726
01:46:06,239 --> 01:46:07,760
so let's go through this how do we
2727
01:46:07,760 --> 01:46:09,760
define the boundaries so let's talk
2728
01:46:09,760 --> 01:46:11,679
about the boundary between
2729
01:46:11,679 --> 01:46:14,400
phase a and phase b
2730
01:46:14,400 --> 01:46:16,560
well what do we see what do we have to
2731
01:46:16,560 --> 01:46:19,520
see there so we want to
2732
01:46:19,520 --> 01:46:21,840
identify a secondary test as the
2733
01:46:21,840 --> 01:46:23,280
conclusion
2734
01:46:23,280 --> 01:46:25,119
of phase a
2735
01:46:25,119 --> 01:46:27,920
and then it's around this area this is
2736
01:46:27,920 --> 01:46:29,600
where we would be looking for the
2737
01:46:29,600 --> 01:46:31,440
reversal
2738
01:46:31,440 --> 01:46:34,000
once we identify this reversal this is
2739
01:46:34,000 --> 01:46:36,159
where we're going to put the boundary
2740
01:46:36,159 --> 01:46:39,520
of between phase a and phase b so why
2741
01:46:39,520 --> 01:46:41,520
why would we do it like this well
2742
01:46:41,520 --> 01:46:43,600
obviously we want to include all of the
2743
01:46:43,600 --> 01:46:45,760
points of phase a
2744
01:46:45,760 --> 01:46:48,239
which is preliminary supply
2745
01:46:48,239 --> 01:46:51,920
selling climax automatic rally
2746
01:46:51,920 --> 01:46:55,239
secondary test and then we want to
2747
01:46:55,239 --> 01:46:58,080
identify the ending
2748
01:46:58,080 --> 01:47:01,520
of secondary test and secondary test is
2749
01:47:01,520 --> 01:47:02,960
just a reaction
2750
01:47:02,960 --> 01:47:06,159
so we want to find the reversal
2751
01:47:06,159 --> 01:47:09,800
of a downswing
2752
01:47:10,639 --> 01:47:13,440
that acts as a secondary test and once
2753
01:47:13,440 --> 01:47:15,280
we find this
2754
01:47:15,280 --> 01:47:16,159
bar
2755
01:47:16,159 --> 01:47:17,520
that's where
2756
01:47:17,520 --> 01:47:20,000
we're going to put the boundary
2757
01:47:20,000 --> 01:47:23,000
between
2758
01:47:23,600 --> 01:47:26,800
phases a and b
2759
01:47:27,040 --> 01:47:29,840
we're gonna do the same
2760
01:47:29,840 --> 01:47:31,199
with
2761
01:47:31,199 --> 01:47:33,679
the boundary between phase
2762
01:47:33,679 --> 01:47:35,600
c and phase d
2763
01:47:35,600 --> 01:47:37,440
and in this case it's a little bit
2764
01:47:37,440 --> 01:47:41,199
easier because we do have another test
2765
01:47:41,199 --> 01:47:43,360
and that test is also
2766
01:47:43,360 --> 01:47:45,920
just a downswing
2767
01:47:45,920 --> 01:47:47,840
so for this downswing we're going to
2768
01:47:47,840 --> 01:47:49,760
look for the reversal
2769
01:47:49,760 --> 01:47:52,480
and the reversal bar is going to be our
2770
01:47:52,480 --> 01:47:54,800
boundary between phases
2771
01:47:54,800 --> 01:47:55,920
c
2772
01:47:55,920 --> 01:47:59,840
and d so it's somewhere here
2773
01:48:00,320 --> 01:48:02,320
and then
2774
01:48:02,320 --> 01:48:06,320
the boundary between phases b and c is a
2775
01:48:06,320 --> 01:48:08,800
and by the way let's just do phase d as
2776
01:48:08,800 --> 01:48:10,800
well right away so kind of the same
2777
01:48:10,800 --> 01:48:13,199
concept right so backing up action is
2778
01:48:13,199 --> 01:48:14,159
going to be
2779
01:48:14,159 --> 01:48:16,880
a reaction so in the reaction we want to
2780
01:48:16,880 --> 01:48:19,199
see to look for the reversal
2781
01:48:19,199 --> 01:48:20,000
so
2782
01:48:20,000 --> 01:48:22,080
here it's a little bit more complex like
2783
01:48:22,080 --> 01:48:24,560
it was here as well so we see the stop
2784
01:48:24,560 --> 01:48:27,520
in action and then we see a minor test
2785
01:48:27,520 --> 01:48:29,760
so it's out of this minor test that the
2786
01:48:29,760 --> 01:48:32,080
boundary would occur we see here a
2787
01:48:32,080 --> 01:48:34,960
reaction and the test to this reaction
2788
01:48:34,960 --> 01:48:37,760
so it's out of the you know that test on
2789
01:48:37,760 --> 01:48:40,000
the reversal of that test this is where
2790
01:48:40,000 --> 01:48:42,080
the boundary is going to be created
2791
01:48:42,080 --> 01:48:43,280
now face
2792
01:48:43,280 --> 01:48:45,679
the boundary between phase b and phase c
2793
01:48:45,679 --> 01:48:48,000
is a little bit more complicated
2794
01:48:48,000 --> 01:48:50,639
because basically we need to understand
2795
01:48:50,639 --> 01:48:53,360
the intention behind phase c which is
2796
01:48:53,360 --> 01:48:55,360
what which is testing
2797
01:48:55,360 --> 01:48:58,000
this is the final test at the support
2798
01:48:58,000 --> 01:49:01,360
level so therefore from this definition
2799
01:49:01,360 --> 01:49:04,560
as this is the test
2800
01:49:04,560 --> 01:49:08,080
we need to find the place in phase c
2801
01:49:08,080 --> 01:49:11,760
where the there is first attempt to test
2802
01:49:11,760 --> 01:49:14,960
uh the support level and we usually look
2803
01:49:14,960 --> 01:49:17,199
into phase b lows
2804
01:49:17,199 --> 01:49:19,040
and we are saying okay where is the
2805
01:49:19,040 --> 01:49:20,719
first time
2806
01:49:20,719 --> 01:49:23,679
when the lows of phase b were
2807
01:49:23,679 --> 01:49:24,639
tested
2808
01:49:24,639 --> 01:49:26,800
so somewhere here in this area
2809
01:49:26,800 --> 01:49:28,480
so and we want to put the boundary
2810
01:49:28,480 --> 01:49:30,080
exactly on this
2811
01:49:30,080 --> 01:49:32,480
level where the test has happened for
2812
01:49:32,480 --> 01:49:33,599
phase b
2813
01:49:33,599 --> 01:49:36,560
so this is how we define the boundaries
2814
01:49:36,560 --> 01:49:38,719
for all of the phases i really guys
2815
01:49:38,719 --> 01:49:41,760
would like you to stop here you know
2816
01:49:41,760 --> 01:49:43,520
stop the recording
2817
01:49:43,520 --> 01:49:46,159
make some notes think about this maybe
2818
01:49:46,159 --> 01:49:49,199
take a chart just to go through that
2819
01:49:49,199 --> 01:49:51,520
and just to think about how you put in
2820
01:49:51,520 --> 01:49:53,920
those boundaries
2821
01:49:53,920 --> 01:49:54,840
all right
2822
01:49:54,840 --> 01:49:56,800
great
2823
01:49:56,800 --> 01:49:59,360
let's go to the next slide so we are at
2824
01:49:59,360 --> 01:50:01,920
ten to five so we have still maybe an
2825
01:50:01,920 --> 01:50:04,719
hour and a half hour and ten minutes
2826
01:50:04,719 --> 01:50:07,360
all right so um say yes if you would
2827
01:50:07,360 --> 01:50:10,800
like to volunteer who's next all right
2828
01:50:10,800 --> 01:50:13,760
just gonna go with the first one phillip
2829
01:50:13,760 --> 01:50:17,119
you have to unmute yourself
2830
01:50:18,239 --> 01:50:20,719
philip
2831
01:50:23,360 --> 01:50:25,840
how you doing
2832
01:50:26,159 --> 01:50:28,719
do you hear me yes just speak up a
2833
01:50:28,719 --> 01:50:30,239
little bit
2834
01:50:30,239 --> 01:50:32,560
okay sorry yeah closer to the microphone
2835
01:50:32,560 --> 01:50:34,960
okay great all right am i pronouncing
2836
01:50:34,960 --> 01:50:36,800
your name correctly philip
2837
01:50:36,800 --> 01:50:38,800
yeah thank you okay
2838
01:50:38,800 --> 01:50:40,480
um so let's look at the first trading
2839
01:50:40,480 --> 01:50:41,920
range
2840
01:50:41,920 --> 01:50:44,880
what is catching your eye
2841
01:50:44,880 --> 01:50:47,920
uh well probably this setting climax
2842
01:50:47,920 --> 01:50:50,000
which is where the large swings
2843
01:50:50,000 --> 01:50:53,440
just label this for you point number one
2844
01:50:53,440 --> 01:50:56,159
point number two
2845
01:50:56,159 --> 01:50:57,199
uh
2846
01:50:57,199 --> 01:50:59,840
three and four okay which one is the
2847
01:50:59,840 --> 01:51:01,679
selling climax
2848
01:51:01,679 --> 01:51:04,080
uh number two the first would be the
2849
01:51:04,080 --> 01:51:05,840
prelim
2850
01:51:05,840 --> 01:51:07,360
support i think
2851
01:51:07,360 --> 01:51:09,280
okay so let's start with this
2852
01:51:09,280 --> 01:51:11,520
preliminary support selling climax so
2853
01:51:11,520 --> 01:51:13,119
let's go through the logic of this
2854
01:51:13,119 --> 01:51:14,159
labeling
2855
01:51:14,159 --> 01:51:15,520
so we know that
2856
01:51:15,520 --> 01:51:18,719
um selling climax has to be the stop in
2857
01:51:18,719 --> 01:51:21,679
action right and then
2858
01:51:21,679 --> 01:51:22,960
after the
2859
01:51:22,960 --> 01:51:27,040
stop in action what should happen next
2860
01:51:27,920 --> 01:51:29,920
uh automatic rally
2861
01:51:29,920 --> 01:51:32,320
next is going to be automatic rally an
2862
01:51:32,320 --> 01:51:33,520
automatic rally is going to be
2863
01:51:33,520 --> 01:51:35,440
associated with
2864
01:51:35,440 --> 01:51:36,639
what else
2865
01:51:36,639 --> 01:51:38,480
with what kind of
2866
01:51:38,480 --> 01:51:41,360
change of behavior change of
2867
01:51:41,360 --> 01:51:42,719
character
2868
01:51:42,719 --> 01:51:43,920
given
2869
01:51:43,920 --> 01:51:44,880
out
2870
01:51:44,880 --> 01:51:48,480
right so we change our character
2871
01:51:48,480 --> 01:51:50,320
so a change of character
2872
01:51:50,320 --> 01:51:51,679
is going to look
2873
01:51:51,679 --> 01:51:54,480
uh like what
2874
01:51:54,480 --> 01:51:56,239
why is that uh the change of character
2875
01:51:56,239 --> 01:51:58,880
what would we see on this rally that is
2876
01:51:58,880 --> 01:52:00,639
going to be so different than what we've
2877
01:52:00,639 --> 01:52:03,920
seen before well maybe a
2878
01:52:03,920 --> 01:52:05,599
bigger price
2879
01:52:05,599 --> 01:52:09,440
swing than before in the rally before
2880
01:52:09,440 --> 01:52:12,000
and maybe a little bit bigger volume
2881
01:52:12,000 --> 01:52:12,880
okay
2882
01:52:12,880 --> 01:52:14,800
great and specifically maybe in this
2883
01:52:14,800 --> 01:52:16,560
case because this is an accumulation
2884
01:52:16,560 --> 01:52:18,960
after the downtrend demand signature is
2885
01:52:18,960 --> 01:52:21,520
going to go up right so the distance of
2886
01:52:21,520 --> 01:52:23,840
the rally could increase the volume
2887
01:52:23,840 --> 01:52:26,000
would go up the demand is going to
2888
01:52:26,000 --> 01:52:27,040
increase
2889
01:52:27,040 --> 01:52:30,800
the up spread is going to increase right
2890
01:52:30,800 --> 01:52:31,760
so
2891
01:52:31,760 --> 01:52:34,800
where for the first time
2892
01:52:34,800 --> 01:52:36,880
do we see
2893
01:52:36,880 --> 01:52:40,159
this type of price action
2894
01:52:40,159 --> 01:52:44,280
and volume action as well
2895
01:52:44,960 --> 01:52:46,159
uh
2896
01:52:46,159 --> 01:52:48,080
well maybe
2897
01:52:48,080 --> 01:52:49,920
between one and two
2898
01:52:49,920 --> 01:52:52,400
yeah this first rally right from this
2899
01:52:52,400 --> 01:52:53,760
low
2900
01:52:53,760 --> 01:52:55,280
to this high
2901
01:52:55,280 --> 01:52:57,520
yeah that looks that like that rally
2902
01:52:57,520 --> 01:52:59,199
that you've just described as a change
2903
01:52:59,199 --> 01:53:01,040
of character why is that
2904
01:53:01,040 --> 01:53:03,199
well the distance for the rally has
2905
01:53:03,199 --> 01:53:05,119
increased right looking at the previous
2906
01:53:05,119 --> 01:53:07,040
attempts to rally where is it well
2907
01:53:07,040 --> 01:53:09,760
here's one there is another one and this
2908
01:53:09,760 --> 01:53:12,480
is the high uh you know of that of that
2909
01:53:12,480 --> 01:53:15,679
downswing so this is the largest
2910
01:53:15,679 --> 01:53:17,679
reaction to the upside
2911
01:53:17,679 --> 01:53:19,520
look at the spread it's increasing as
2912
01:53:19,520 --> 01:53:21,280
well what can we say about the volume
2913
01:53:21,280 --> 01:53:24,239
signature by the way philip
2914
01:53:24,239 --> 01:53:26,239
just looking at the spread itself what
2915
01:53:26,239 --> 01:53:29,920
do you think the volume is doing here
2916
01:53:30,800 --> 01:53:33,199
oh well increasing hopefully
2917
01:53:33,199 --> 01:53:34,719
okay and why do you think it's
2918
01:53:34,719 --> 01:53:37,280
increasing
2919
01:53:37,440 --> 01:53:39,119
uh
2920
01:53:39,119 --> 01:53:42,320
well because um there it's it looked
2921
01:53:42,320 --> 01:53:44,400
like there was a fight between where
2922
01:53:44,400 --> 01:53:48,800
where the ending price will be and
2923
01:53:48,800 --> 01:53:50,800
before like the difference between the
2924
01:53:50,800 --> 01:53:53,280
range of the tick and the
2925
01:53:53,280 --> 01:53:56,000
of the weeks and the ending prices i
2926
01:53:56,000 --> 01:53:59,360
think yes absolutely we see and what is
2927
01:53:59,360 --> 01:54:02,159
this fight how would we call this fight
2928
01:54:02,159 --> 01:54:05,199
it's the fight of volatility
2929
01:54:05,199 --> 01:54:08,400
right so there is a climactic run to the
2930
01:54:08,400 --> 01:54:10,719
downside that increases the supply
2931
01:54:10,719 --> 01:54:13,440
tremendously i mean we're seeing how
2932
01:54:13,440 --> 01:54:15,599
uh it's a general capitulation here it's
2933
01:54:15,599 --> 01:54:17,360
not institutional it's not public
2934
01:54:17,360 --> 01:54:19,520
capitulation everyone is capitulating
2935
01:54:19,520 --> 01:54:20,480
here
2936
01:54:20,480 --> 01:54:22,239
there is a gap to the downside big
2937
01:54:22,239 --> 01:54:24,800
spread to the downside the first initial
2938
01:54:24,800 --> 01:54:27,440
momentum is to the downside
2939
01:54:27,440 --> 01:54:30,080
so this day on the intraday level is
2940
01:54:30,080 --> 01:54:34,239
going to look like this previous close
2941
01:54:34,400 --> 01:54:37,119
maybe open
2942
01:54:37,119 --> 01:54:40,239
i'm sorry open is going to be at the low
2943
01:54:40,239 --> 01:54:43,040
here so this is open
2944
01:54:43,040 --> 01:54:45,119
and then momentum is going to carry us
2945
01:54:45,119 --> 01:54:46,639
down first
2946
01:54:46,639 --> 01:54:48,560
that's going to be my first initial
2947
01:54:48,560 --> 01:54:50,159
assumption then we're going to have the
2948
01:54:50,159 --> 01:54:51,119
rally
2949
01:54:51,119 --> 01:54:53,440
and then it's going to carry us to the
2950
01:54:53,440 --> 01:54:55,920
close of the previous day
2951
01:54:55,920 --> 01:54:58,159
so that's how the action would look like
2952
01:54:58,159 --> 01:55:01,199
so supply has increased then demand has
2953
01:55:01,199 --> 01:55:02,960
increased
2954
01:55:02,960 --> 01:55:05,440
and then supply has increased again so
2955
01:55:05,440 --> 01:55:07,440
there is a lot of volatility during this
2956
01:55:07,440 --> 01:55:09,360
intraday action
2957
01:55:09,360 --> 01:55:11,520
which brings basically the volume
2958
01:55:11,520 --> 01:55:14,239
signature increase and then most likely
2959
01:55:14,239 --> 01:55:16,560
some kind of spike on that date
2960
01:55:16,560 --> 01:55:18,960
so therefore a fight between the buyers
2961
01:55:18,960 --> 01:55:22,480
that sellers creates volatility uh which
2962
01:55:22,480 --> 01:55:25,199
volatility and volume is just you know
2963
01:55:25,199 --> 01:55:27,599
so connected together and increasing the
2964
01:55:27,599 --> 01:55:29,599
volume is just you know suggests that
2965
01:55:29,599 --> 01:55:32,000
there is an increase in a potential
2966
01:55:32,000 --> 01:55:34,000
increase in volatility
2967
01:55:34,000 --> 01:55:37,040
okay uh great so if
2968
01:55:37,040 --> 01:55:41,520
now if this is a change of character
2969
01:55:41,520 --> 01:55:43,280
then where is our selling climax and
2970
01:55:43,280 --> 01:55:45,599
automatic rally
2971
01:55:45,599 --> 01:55:48,000
okay well uh so the
2972
01:55:48,000 --> 01:55:50,239
selling climax should be the lowest
2973
01:55:50,239 --> 01:55:52,639
point of this okay yep
2974
01:55:52,639 --> 01:55:54,800
automatic rally and then the next move
2975
01:55:54,800 --> 01:55:57,760
to the downside is going to be what
2976
01:55:57,760 --> 01:55:58,639
uh
2977
01:55:58,639 --> 01:56:00,560
secondary test secondary test could the
2978
01:56:00,560 --> 01:56:02,639
secondary test be
2979
01:56:02,639 --> 01:56:05,440
a low low
2980
01:56:06,880 --> 01:56:09,520
yes it could be yes it could be it could
2981
01:56:09,520 --> 01:56:11,040
be a high low it could be at the same
2982
01:56:11,040 --> 01:56:13,040
level it could be a low low
2983
01:56:13,040 --> 01:56:16,320
the key is if this is a low low does the
2984
01:56:16,320 --> 01:56:18,159
price come back into the trading range
2985
01:56:18,159 --> 01:56:20,800
or not because if it doesn't
2986
01:56:20,800 --> 01:56:22,800
then you know it's not
2987
01:56:22,800 --> 01:56:24,080
a stop in action it's just a
2988
01:56:24,080 --> 01:56:26,400
continuation of the downtrend we could
2989
01:56:26,400 --> 01:56:27,360
have a
2990
01:56:27,360 --> 01:56:29,920
for the secondary test yeah okay great
2991
01:56:29,920 --> 01:56:30,960
so this
2992
01:56:30,960 --> 01:56:33,360
concludes phase a what's the intention
2993
01:56:33,360 --> 01:56:36,159
behind phase a
2994
01:56:36,560 --> 01:56:38,960
uh the change of character yes the
2995
01:56:38,960 --> 01:56:40,719
change of character and
2996
01:56:40,719 --> 01:56:43,360
to stop the downtrend from going further
2997
01:56:43,360 --> 01:56:46,000
down right so stop in the trend and then
2998
01:56:46,000 --> 01:56:47,599
change the character with which the
2999
01:56:47,599 --> 01:56:48,560
price
3000
01:56:48,560 --> 01:56:52,320
unfolds okay phase a and then um
3001
01:56:52,320 --> 01:56:55,520
what catches your eye next
3002
01:56:55,520 --> 01:56:57,520
um well the two
3003
01:56:57,520 --> 01:56:59,040
uh
3004
01:56:59,040 --> 01:57:02,159
two weeks who which are in at the bottom
3005
01:57:02,159 --> 01:57:04,320
of the range
3006
01:57:04,320 --> 01:57:06,719
yeah yeah the two ends are free
3007
01:57:06,719 --> 01:57:08,239
okay so
3008
01:57:08,239 --> 01:57:09,599
kind of like
3009
01:57:09,599 --> 01:57:12,159
quite a few tests here right so smaller
3010
01:57:12,159 --> 01:57:13,119
test
3011
01:57:13,119 --> 01:57:15,520
uh big test bigger tests so if we would
3012
01:57:15,520 --> 01:57:17,760
be talking about tests the magnitude of
3013
01:57:17,760 --> 01:57:19,760
test probably we would say
3014
01:57:19,760 --> 01:57:21,920
secondary test number one that was a
3015
01:57:21,920 --> 01:57:23,280
local test
3016
01:57:23,280 --> 01:57:25,920
you know to
3017
01:57:25,920 --> 01:57:29,520
sec uh to selling climax
3018
01:57:29,599 --> 01:57:30,719
test
3019
01:57:30,719 --> 01:57:32,960
to selling climax
3020
01:57:32,960 --> 01:57:35,679
and then these two tests look like the
3021
01:57:35,679 --> 01:57:38,159
same magnitude but their dimension and
3022
01:57:38,159 --> 01:57:41,520
size which basically tells us
3023
01:57:41,520 --> 01:57:44,800
that 2 and 3
3024
01:57:45,599 --> 01:57:49,520
in the downward distance
3025
01:57:49,520 --> 01:57:53,599
that is dimension is a bullish sign
3026
01:57:53,599 --> 01:57:56,080
and then look how high they are relative
3027
01:57:56,080 --> 01:57:58,239
to the selling climax
3028
01:57:58,239 --> 01:58:01,119
and relative to anything in phase a so
3029
01:58:01,119 --> 01:58:02,239
that's an
3030
01:58:02,239 --> 01:58:05,119
almost like extra bullish sign
3031
01:58:05,119 --> 01:58:08,239
that we have so that's all about bias
3032
01:58:08,239 --> 01:58:09,920
okay so that's great
3033
01:58:09,920 --> 01:58:12,400
um but then how would we
3034
01:58:12,400 --> 01:58:13,760
label those
3035
01:58:13,760 --> 01:58:16,880
uh you know two tests
3036
01:58:16,880 --> 01:58:19,440
yeah well i i would have trouble
3037
01:58:19,440 --> 01:58:21,840
distinguishing which will be the the
3038
01:58:21,840 --> 01:58:25,280
tests in c but i think it should be the
3039
01:58:25,280 --> 01:58:26,880
uh-huh go ahead
3040
01:58:26,880 --> 01:58:29,599
uh it should be the last one
3041
01:58:29,599 --> 01:58:31,679
uh-huh and
3042
01:58:31,679 --> 01:58:33,599
logic i mean this is the correct answer
3043
01:58:33,599 --> 01:58:35,760
but that's the logic behind it
3044
01:58:35,760 --> 01:58:38,320
well if in any trading range there
3045
01:58:38,320 --> 01:58:39,520
should be like
3046
01:58:39,520 --> 01:58:44,400
three major tests so and we have no test
3047
01:58:44,400 --> 01:58:46,400
after the three so the last one has to
3048
01:58:46,400 --> 01:58:49,840
be the test in c yeah yeah and this is
3049
01:58:49,840 --> 01:58:53,840
again you know third test
3050
01:58:54,960 --> 01:58:57,040
is gonna be our phase c
3051
01:58:57,040 --> 01:58:59,199
second test it's gonna be phase b so if
3052
01:58:59,199 --> 01:59:02,880
this is the test this is from where the
3053
01:59:02,880 --> 01:59:04,800
trend should start
3054
01:59:04,800 --> 01:59:06,400
and even though there is
3055
01:59:06,400 --> 01:59:08,239
a definition of the higher highs higher
3056
01:59:08,239 --> 01:59:09,920
lows this is the conventional t
3057
01:59:09,920 --> 01:59:12,000
definition of the uptrend
3058
01:59:12,000 --> 01:59:13,840
you know you could argue with me that
3059
01:59:13,840 --> 01:59:15,920
we're already in an uptrend here yes we
3060
01:59:15,920 --> 01:59:18,400
are but we're still in the consolidate
3061
01:59:18,400 --> 01:59:20,800
information it's just upsloping
3062
01:59:20,800 --> 01:59:23,280
then if this is a consolidation and it's
3063
01:59:23,280 --> 01:59:24,960
just of slope information then we need
3064
01:59:24,960 --> 01:59:26,960
to identify phase c
3065
01:59:26,960 --> 01:59:29,520
so philip is talking about the test so
3066
01:59:29,520 --> 01:59:32,400
this is great looks like phase c
3067
01:59:32,400 --> 01:59:34,560
um how else could we check that this and
3068
01:59:34,560 --> 01:59:36,639
confirm that this is phase c well what
3069
01:59:36,639 --> 01:59:38,320
happens next
3070
01:59:38,320 --> 01:59:40,960
where is the actual uptrend that doesn't
3071
01:59:40,960 --> 01:59:42,960
have the same type of the reactions that
3072
01:59:42,960 --> 01:59:45,040
in the trading range it's in this area
3073
01:59:45,040 --> 01:59:47,599
right here so here is our kind of like
3074
01:59:47,599 --> 01:59:50,800
pure uptrend that we were looking for
3075
01:59:50,800 --> 01:59:53,119
so if this is an uptrend then the low
3076
01:59:53,119 --> 01:59:55,199
that precedes that uptrend it should be
3077
01:59:55,199 --> 01:59:58,960
phase c and it does yeah so that's great
3078
01:59:58,960 --> 02:00:00,960
another confirmation that we could have
3079
02:00:00,960 --> 02:00:01,679
is
3080
02:00:01,679 --> 02:00:04,400
uh after phase c i feel like what should
3081
02:00:04,400 --> 02:00:06,960
happen which phase
3082
02:00:06,960 --> 02:00:09,440
phase d phase d and phase d is going to
3083
02:00:09,440 --> 02:00:11,599
be associated with the major sign of
3084
02:00:11,599 --> 02:00:12,639
strength
3085
02:00:12,639 --> 02:00:14,960
and with the major backing up action
3086
02:00:14,960 --> 02:00:17,599
right so we could say that in this case
3087
02:00:17,599 --> 02:00:19,520
and i forgot who was asking me about
3088
02:00:19,520 --> 02:00:22,400
that uh backing up action that could it
3089
02:00:22,400 --> 02:00:25,199
be you know much larger well in this
3090
02:00:25,199 --> 02:00:27,679
case if we would extend the resistance
3091
02:00:27,679 --> 02:00:29,840
level you know we could see how this
3092
02:00:29,840 --> 02:00:32,000
formation is resting
3093
02:00:32,000 --> 02:00:34,800
um on the resistance level that has been
3094
02:00:34,800 --> 02:00:36,639
projected you know as an up sloping
3095
02:00:36,639 --> 02:00:38,639
resistance so yes this is a major
3096
02:00:38,639 --> 02:00:40,159
backing up action that has its own
3097
02:00:40,159 --> 02:00:41,520
trading range
3098
02:00:41,520 --> 02:00:44,560
now let's quickly talk about alternative
3099
02:00:44,560 --> 02:00:45,679
labeling
3100
02:00:45,679 --> 02:00:48,719
here you could label this as phase a and
3101
02:00:48,719 --> 02:00:50,880
then i've seen that some of you said
3102
02:00:50,880 --> 02:00:53,440
okay this is a test in phase b
3103
02:00:53,440 --> 02:00:56,800
and then this is it uh phase c phase b
3104
02:00:56,800 --> 02:00:59,040
is still the largest amount three so
3105
02:00:59,040 --> 02:01:02,239
that that actually is good then you have
3106
02:01:02,239 --> 02:01:04,080
a sign of strength in d
3107
02:01:04,080 --> 02:01:06,400
and a backing up action
3108
02:01:06,400 --> 02:01:10,080
now i actually oh i'm totally okay with
3109
02:01:10,080 --> 02:01:13,119
this label why because if you would be
3110
02:01:13,119 --> 02:01:15,679
thinking that this is an accumulation
3111
02:01:15,679 --> 02:01:17,280
and your goal is going to be to
3112
02:01:17,280 --> 02:01:19,440
establish a high probability trade which
3113
02:01:19,440 --> 02:01:21,520
is going to be a not in phase c but in
3114
02:01:21,520 --> 02:01:22,800
phase d
3115
02:01:22,800 --> 02:01:25,040
then you kind of open in the position at
3116
02:01:25,040 --> 02:01:27,440
the same time as the trader who would
3117
02:01:27,440 --> 02:01:29,199
label it as phase c
3118
02:01:29,199 --> 02:01:31,119
and it would try you know to
3119
02:01:31,119 --> 02:01:32,960
on the elements of strands just to get
3120
02:01:32,960 --> 02:01:33,679
in
3121
02:01:33,679 --> 02:01:36,560
in phase d on the way up so for trading
3122
02:01:36,560 --> 02:01:38,800
purposes it doesn't really matter
3123
02:01:38,800 --> 02:01:40,719
um but i want you guys to kind of
3124
02:01:40,719 --> 02:01:43,280
understand and see that we have to have
3125
02:01:43,280 --> 02:01:44,880
first test
3126
02:01:44,880 --> 02:01:48,080
second test third test that the trend is
3127
02:01:48,080 --> 02:01:50,320
going to start at the low so phase c and
3128
02:01:50,320 --> 02:01:52,080
so on so forth so there are quite a few
3129
02:01:52,080 --> 02:01:53,920
things here that i would be thinking
3130
02:01:53,920 --> 02:01:57,040
that this labeling is probably better
3131
02:01:57,040 --> 02:01:59,119
all right philly
3132
02:01:59,119 --> 02:02:01,280
what about the second trading range what
3133
02:02:01,280 --> 02:02:03,360
is the most obvious
3134
02:02:03,360 --> 02:02:05,760
thing on this console in this
3135
02:02:05,760 --> 02:02:08,480
consolidation
3136
02:02:08,800 --> 02:02:10,320
um
3137
02:02:10,320 --> 02:02:12,480
so the first two points
3138
02:02:12,480 --> 02:02:15,199
which defines the trading range probably
3139
02:02:15,199 --> 02:02:17,199
okay so i see it like as these two
3140
02:02:17,199 --> 02:02:19,760
points what is the first point
3141
02:02:19,760 --> 02:02:21,760
how would we label it
3142
02:02:21,760 --> 02:02:24,159
i'm buying climax okay why is this a
3143
02:02:24,159 --> 02:02:26,880
buying climax
3144
02:02:27,679 --> 02:02:30,239
well because it's the end of the uptrend
3145
02:02:30,239 --> 02:02:31,599
a
3146
02:02:31,599 --> 02:02:34,960
but i i like do not see
3147
02:02:34,960 --> 02:02:37,520
the yeah and it there is a gap between
3148
02:02:37,520 --> 02:02:40,960
the the last bullish uh take so maybe
3149
02:02:40,960 --> 02:02:43,520
that's that's one of indicators so gap
3150
02:02:43,520 --> 02:02:45,520
what else what about this spread
3151
02:02:45,520 --> 02:02:47,840
increase right
3152
02:02:47,840 --> 02:02:50,000
look at how the price marks prior to
3153
02:02:50,000 --> 02:02:52,480
that and look at this bar right here
3154
02:02:52,480 --> 02:02:54,639
something is different the way how it
3155
02:02:54,639 --> 02:02:56,239
moves now
3156
02:02:56,239 --> 02:02:58,880
so faster i'm much faster so my
3157
02:02:58,880 --> 02:03:01,920
management increase velocity increase
3158
02:03:01,920 --> 02:03:03,920
spread increase
3159
02:03:03,920 --> 02:03:07,520
gap to the upside and then it stops it's
3160
02:03:07,520 --> 02:03:09,599
a stopping action so all of these
3161
02:03:09,599 --> 02:03:11,760
elements are elements of the climactic
3162
02:03:11,760 --> 02:03:14,400
action in this case the bind climax okay
3163
02:03:14,400 --> 02:03:16,960
well what's interesting is the next
3164
02:03:16,960 --> 02:03:18,800
reaction right so
3165
02:03:18,800 --> 02:03:22,080
we see that there is really not a lot of
3166
02:03:22,080 --> 02:03:24,239
reaction that's number one secondly
3167
02:03:24,239 --> 02:03:26,800
there is really after the climactic run
3168
02:03:26,800 --> 02:03:29,840
there is no trading range
3169
02:03:30,000 --> 02:03:31,760
that would define
3170
02:03:31,760 --> 02:03:33,040
um
3171
02:03:33,040 --> 02:03:35,679
you know some kind of uh
3172
02:03:35,679 --> 02:03:38,000
causality for the price to move down and
3173
02:03:38,000 --> 02:03:39,599
that's why the move down is just so
3174
02:03:39,599 --> 02:03:40,560
small
3175
02:03:40,560 --> 02:03:42,239
this by the way is just a preliminary
3176
02:03:42,239 --> 02:03:43,280
supply
3177
02:03:43,280 --> 02:03:45,360
you know this range right here
3178
02:03:45,360 --> 02:03:48,000
and um it's in these cases where we
3179
02:03:48,000 --> 02:03:49,840
could say that because there is not a
3180
02:03:49,840 --> 02:03:51,840
lot of distributional activity here at
3181
02:03:51,840 --> 02:03:53,840
the bayan climax itself
3182
02:03:53,840 --> 02:03:56,480
we could label this move to the downside
3183
02:03:56,480 --> 02:03:58,639
as a shakeout first
3184
02:03:58,639 --> 02:04:00,880
or we could label it you know so this
3185
02:04:00,880 --> 02:04:03,679
will be more alternative labeling
3186
02:04:03,679 --> 02:04:05,920
and then a more conventional we built
3187
02:04:05,920 --> 02:04:09,599
just a regular automatic reaction
3188
02:04:09,599 --> 02:04:12,639
so whatever you guys did that's fine
3189
02:04:12,639 --> 02:04:15,119
the only thing here is if you're
3190
02:04:15,119 --> 02:04:17,360
labeling this as a shakeout selling
3191
02:04:17,360 --> 02:04:19,840
climax then the next rally is going to
3192
02:04:19,840 --> 02:04:23,119
be labeled hell fill it
3193
02:04:23,119 --> 02:04:26,159
uh automatic rela react function rally
3194
02:04:26,159 --> 02:04:28,159
okay and then secondary test and that
3195
02:04:28,159 --> 02:04:28,960
would
3196
02:04:28,960 --> 02:04:30,800
be your phase a
3197
02:04:30,800 --> 02:04:32,960
okay uh in the
3198
02:04:32,960 --> 02:04:35,040
alternative flip uh in the more
3199
02:04:35,040 --> 02:04:37,119
conventional labeling right so you'll
3200
02:04:37,119 --> 02:04:38,880
have
3201
02:04:38,880 --> 02:04:42,400
bind climax automatic um
3202
02:04:42,400 --> 02:04:44,560
a reaction and then the secondary test
3203
02:04:44,560 --> 02:04:46,719
and that would conclude your phase a and
3204
02:04:46,719 --> 02:04:48,880
that would be the only difference i want
3205
02:04:48,880 --> 02:04:50,960
you guys to see this we've studied this
3206
02:04:50,960 --> 02:04:52,719
in the previous class i gave you the
3207
02:04:52,719 --> 02:04:54,960
slides on the rear accumulation some of
3208
02:04:54,960 --> 02:04:56,480
the rear accumulations are going to have
3209
02:04:56,480 --> 02:04:57,679
the structure where they're going to
3210
02:04:57,679 --> 02:04:59,599
have a distribution range and we've seen
3211
02:04:59,599 --> 02:05:01,599
this in the previous slide then the
3212
02:05:01,599 --> 02:05:03,840
price goes down so you're going to have
3213
02:05:03,840 --> 02:05:06,880
a selling climax and then your labeling
3214
02:05:06,880 --> 02:05:10,000
is going to be the same
3215
02:05:10,480 --> 02:05:12,880
and then in another formation where you
3216
02:05:12,880 --> 02:05:15,040
have a buying climax and then you have
3217
02:05:15,040 --> 02:05:16,960
just a sharp reaction
3218
02:05:16,960 --> 02:05:19,599
that defines the boundary of the range
3219
02:05:19,599 --> 02:05:21,520
then you could in some instances say
3220
02:05:21,520 --> 02:05:23,760
that this is a shakeout and then you
3221
02:05:23,760 --> 02:05:25,840
kind of start it over
3222
02:05:25,840 --> 02:05:28,000
as just a regular uh
3223
02:05:28,000 --> 02:05:29,920
accumulation so this will be an
3224
02:05:29,920 --> 02:05:32,960
alternative labeling
3225
02:05:32,960 --> 02:05:35,040
and
3226
02:05:35,040 --> 02:05:37,199
buying climax automatic reaction
3227
02:05:37,199 --> 02:05:38,800
secondary test
3228
02:05:38,800 --> 02:05:42,560
this would be conventional
3229
02:05:43,119 --> 02:05:45,599
please take notes of this
3230
02:05:45,599 --> 02:05:48,079
because this question repeats itself all
3231
02:05:48,079 --> 02:05:50,159
right well phillip how would you like to
3232
02:05:50,159 --> 02:05:53,679
label it okay bind climax
3233
02:05:53,679 --> 02:05:55,599
then let's just go with the conventional
3234
02:05:55,599 --> 02:05:56,800
automatic
3235
02:05:56,800 --> 02:06:00,639
reaction secondary test phase a
3236
02:06:00,639 --> 02:06:03,440
okay so then what is the next thing that
3237
02:06:03,440 --> 02:06:05,840
catches your eye
3238
02:06:05,840 --> 02:06:06,719
um
3239
02:06:06,719 --> 02:06:08,880
yeah and now i'm not sure because if the
3240
02:06:08,880 --> 02:06:11,520
secondary test is is the test to the
3241
02:06:11,520 --> 02:06:14,400
upside i'm not sure what's the what's
3242
02:06:14,400 --> 02:06:15,199
the
3243
02:06:15,199 --> 02:06:18,159
uh you know decline to the uh
3244
02:06:18,159 --> 02:06:21,119
resistance but the support is your eye
3245
02:06:21,119 --> 02:06:23,280
instead of thinking what comes next and
3246
02:06:23,280 --> 02:06:25,920
the problem associated with the label in
3247
02:06:25,920 --> 02:06:26,960
there
3248
02:06:26,960 --> 02:06:29,040
what is the what is catching your eye
3249
02:06:29,040 --> 02:06:31,520
and by that i mean
3250
02:06:31,520 --> 02:06:34,159
are there any extremes or extreme
3251
02:06:34,159 --> 02:06:36,480
behaviors that you see in this trading
3252
02:06:36,480 --> 02:06:38,560
range that catches your eye
3253
02:06:38,560 --> 02:06:40,800
yeah the nice rally from the top to the
3254
02:06:40,800 --> 02:06:42,960
bottom of the support
3255
02:06:42,960 --> 02:06:44,960
okay let's come back to this later on
3256
02:06:44,960 --> 02:06:47,440
what else
3257
02:06:47,440 --> 02:06:48,320
uh
3258
02:06:48,320 --> 02:06:50,560
yeah and then this rally
3259
02:06:50,560 --> 02:06:53,599
i i thought the the you know the decline
3260
02:06:53,599 --> 02:06:55,679
from the secondary tests
3261
02:06:55,679 --> 02:06:57,679
secondary tests do the bottom of the
3262
02:06:57,679 --> 02:06:59,520
range
3263
02:06:59,520 --> 02:07:02,000
yeah this one
3264
02:07:02,000 --> 02:07:04,239
okay what about it
3265
02:07:04,239 --> 02:07:05,280
uh
3266
02:07:05,280 --> 02:07:07,520
there's that's the first thing and yeah
3267
02:07:07,520 --> 02:07:09,119
then the last
3268
02:07:09,119 --> 02:07:10,079
last
3269
02:07:10,079 --> 02:07:12,480
time that happened again
3270
02:07:12,480 --> 02:07:13,599
okay
3271
02:07:13,599 --> 02:07:16,000
um well when i asked you guys this
3272
02:07:16,000 --> 02:07:18,159
question what catches your eye obviously
3273
02:07:18,159 --> 02:07:21,520
i i'm i'm trying for you to identify
3274
02:07:21,520 --> 02:07:24,560
either extreme behavior or just extremes
3275
02:07:24,560 --> 02:07:26,400
right so what are the extremes
3276
02:07:26,400 --> 02:07:27,760
the extreme
3277
02:07:27,760 --> 02:07:30,480
kinds of support of strength the
3278
02:07:30,480 --> 02:07:32,800
extremes are going to be all this
3279
02:07:32,800 --> 02:07:35,280
right so these are the extremes
3280
02:07:35,280 --> 02:07:37,920
so um
3281
02:07:37,920 --> 02:07:39,840
like for instance this extreme right
3282
02:07:39,840 --> 02:07:42,719
here this rally off the low
3283
02:07:42,719 --> 02:07:46,239
what do you think this rally is
3284
02:07:49,119 --> 02:07:51,440
uh
3285
02:07:51,840 --> 02:07:52,840
i'm not
3286
02:07:52,840 --> 02:07:55,280
sure okay that's fine
3287
02:07:55,280 --> 02:07:57,520
so we we see
3288
02:07:57,520 --> 02:08:00,000
what happens after this rally we have
3289
02:08:00,000 --> 02:08:01,760
some kind of
3290
02:08:01,760 --> 02:08:03,280
backing up action and then a
3291
02:08:03,280 --> 02:08:04,880
continuation
3292
02:08:04,880 --> 02:08:07,840
um to the upside right so we are in the
3293
02:08:07,840 --> 02:08:10,480
uptrend environment right here so we are
3294
02:08:10,480 --> 02:08:12,400
leaving the trading range and then we
3295
02:08:12,400 --> 02:08:14,480
are going into the uptrend there is
3296
02:08:14,480 --> 02:08:16,560
another formation here but
3297
02:08:16,560 --> 02:08:18,320
what phase would we be doing this and
3298
02:08:18,320 --> 02:08:20,239
what kind of bike of events would you
3299
02:08:20,239 --> 02:08:22,560
know conclude the trading range in this
3300
02:08:22,560 --> 02:08:24,000
manner
3301
02:08:24,000 --> 02:08:27,040
it's probably spring
3302
02:08:27,040 --> 02:08:28,400
where
3303
02:08:28,400 --> 02:08:29,840
uh from the
3304
02:08:29,840 --> 02:08:33,360
uh yeah the beginning of the uptrend
3305
02:08:33,360 --> 02:08:35,920
uh give me a timestamp which is
3306
02:08:35,920 --> 02:08:37,280
september
3307
02:08:37,280 --> 02:08:39,199
okay so this one right here
3308
02:08:39,199 --> 02:08:40,079
yeah
3309
02:08:40,079 --> 02:08:42,400
okay yeah so at the low we probably have
3310
02:08:42,400 --> 02:08:46,159
a screen why is this a sprint by the way
3311
02:08:46,639 --> 02:08:49,040
because it's um
3312
02:08:49,040 --> 02:08:52,079
from the support level and it goes
3313
02:08:52,079 --> 02:08:54,079
right at the
3314
02:08:54,079 --> 02:08:56,800
like through the whole trading range and
3315
02:08:56,800 --> 02:08:59,679
with increasing speed okay but then
3316
02:08:59,679 --> 02:09:03,119
also a sprint is gonna be a lower low
3317
02:09:03,119 --> 02:09:06,079
right a sprint is going to be a
3318
02:09:06,079 --> 02:09:09,040
temporary
3319
02:09:09,280 --> 02:09:12,480
either attempt
3320
02:09:13,280 --> 02:09:14,159
or
3321
02:09:14,159 --> 02:09:16,800
commitment
3322
02:09:17,599 --> 02:09:20,560
below the support
3323
02:09:20,560 --> 02:09:22,560
that's how we would look at the spring
3324
02:09:22,560 --> 02:09:24,960
and that's the definition of sprint so
3325
02:09:24,960 --> 02:09:27,599
look at this guys how this bar is trying
3326
02:09:27,599 --> 02:09:29,119
to commit to the downside on the
3327
02:09:29,119 --> 02:09:31,760
intraday basis it does not commit only
3328
02:09:31,760 --> 02:09:34,400
has a tail here on the daily and then
3329
02:09:34,400 --> 02:09:36,960
returns quickly back into the trading
3330
02:09:36,960 --> 02:09:38,480
range
3331
02:09:38,480 --> 02:09:41,360
so it's an up thrust only reversed in
3332
02:09:41,360 --> 02:09:42,560
reverse
3333
02:09:42,560 --> 02:09:44,560
and then it has some kind of local test
3334
02:09:44,560 --> 02:09:47,760
here okay great so which phase is uh
3335
02:09:47,760 --> 02:09:48,800
gonna
3336
02:09:48,800 --> 02:09:52,159
have a sprint in it
3337
02:09:52,719 --> 02:09:53,679
uh
3338
02:09:53,679 --> 02:09:56,400
the beginning it's interface c
3339
02:09:56,400 --> 02:10:00,320
c absolutely okay so if this is phase c
3340
02:10:00,320 --> 02:10:02,880
then everything in between phase a and
3341
02:10:02,880 --> 02:10:04,960
phase c is phase b
3342
02:10:04,960 --> 02:10:07,679
we want to check that phase b is the
3343
02:10:07,679 --> 02:10:11,119
largest among the three
3344
02:10:11,119 --> 02:10:13,280
this is where the cause is being created
3345
02:10:13,280 --> 02:10:15,440
with this is where supply and demand are
3346
02:10:15,440 --> 02:10:16,800
interacting
3347
02:10:16,800 --> 02:10:20,639
with the very very volatile you know
3348
02:10:20,639 --> 02:10:22,480
events and behaviors
3349
02:10:22,480 --> 02:10:25,599
right so okay let's come back to phase b
3350
02:10:25,599 --> 02:10:28,719
really quickly the test at the support
3351
02:10:28,719 --> 02:10:32,719
level how would we label that in phase b
3352
02:10:34,560 --> 02:10:36,800
um
3353
02:10:37,599 --> 02:10:39,920
secondary test secondary test yeah and
3354
02:10:39,920 --> 02:10:41,119
then
3355
02:10:41,119 --> 02:10:42,800
the high that overcomes previous
3356
02:10:42,800 --> 02:10:44,719
resistance point in phase b
3357
02:10:44,719 --> 02:10:47,199
it's going to sign of strength
3358
02:10:47,199 --> 02:10:48,880
and up thrust
3359
02:10:48,880 --> 02:10:50,560
action
3360
02:10:50,560 --> 02:10:51,840
as
3361
02:10:51,840 --> 02:10:55,119
a minus sign of strength
3362
02:10:55,119 --> 02:10:57,520
and the reason why we're saying a minus
3363
02:10:57,520 --> 02:10:59,760
sign of strength is because the price
3364
02:10:59,760 --> 02:11:02,480
commits significantly to the upside it
3365
02:11:02,480 --> 02:11:06,239
doesn't just commits a little bit
3366
02:11:06,239 --> 02:11:08,400
it just commits quite significantly look
3367
02:11:08,400 --> 02:11:11,119
at three closes above and then the price
3368
02:11:11,119 --> 02:11:13,679
spends so much time above here before it
3369
02:11:13,679 --> 02:11:16,400
actually commits you know below
3370
02:11:16,400 --> 02:11:18,400
um so that's why a minus sign of
3371
02:11:18,400 --> 02:11:22,320
strength not every rally in phase b are
3372
02:11:22,320 --> 02:11:24,400
going to have characteristics of a minus
3373
02:11:24,400 --> 02:11:26,239
sign of strength this is going to be
3374
02:11:26,239 --> 02:11:27,040
more
3375
02:11:27,040 --> 02:11:29,440
of the um except
3376
02:11:29,440 --> 02:11:30,800
you know exception
3377
02:11:30,800 --> 02:11:32,880
rather than a norm
3378
02:11:32,880 --> 02:11:36,079
okay great so then can i'm gonna can i
3379
02:11:36,079 --> 02:11:38,560
just quickly ask you if if i have a
3380
02:11:38,560 --> 02:11:41,280
buying climax which is tested by the
3381
02:11:41,280 --> 02:11:44,159
secondary test the first one so the
3382
02:11:44,159 --> 02:11:47,679
secondary test is to the upside can i
3383
02:11:47,679 --> 02:11:50,079
also mark a secondary test something
3384
02:11:50,079 --> 02:11:53,280
that tests the support level like in the
3385
02:11:53,280 --> 02:11:55,679
different direction yeah and that was
3386
02:11:55,679 --> 02:11:59,520
kind of like my biggest um
3387
02:11:59,520 --> 02:12:02,239
uh issue is the labeling that i i've
3388
02:12:02,239 --> 02:12:03,119
seen
3389
02:12:03,119 --> 02:12:06,239
from the in the reaccumulation
3390
02:12:06,239 --> 02:12:08,560
where basically this sequence does not
3391
02:12:08,560 --> 02:12:10,639
make a lot of sense to me
3392
02:12:10,639 --> 02:12:12,639
now i would rather
3393
02:12:12,639 --> 02:12:15,440
uh sequence this in a different way i
3394
02:12:15,440 --> 02:12:17,920
would rather say buying climax
3395
02:12:17,920 --> 02:12:19,199
and then
3396
02:12:19,199 --> 02:12:21,520
shakeout type of action and then just
3397
02:12:21,520 --> 02:12:24,079
say automatic rally and then secondary
3398
02:12:24,079 --> 02:12:25,040
test
3399
02:12:25,040 --> 02:12:27,119
but sometimes it doesn't work like this
3400
02:12:27,119 --> 02:12:29,520
you know just there is not really enough
3401
02:12:29,520 --> 02:12:31,280
room for phase b
3402
02:12:31,280 --> 02:12:32,880
and then we could see that from the
3403
02:12:32,880 --> 02:12:35,760
behaviors what is this rally it is a
3404
02:12:35,760 --> 02:12:38,560
test it is a test of the climactic
3405
02:12:38,560 --> 02:12:40,159
action right there so
3406
02:12:40,159 --> 02:12:42,800
um i started in the conventional way i
3407
02:12:42,800 --> 02:12:45,040
started thinking that okay so test at
3408
02:12:45,040 --> 02:12:46,480
the resistance
3409
02:12:46,480 --> 02:12:48,880
test at the support and phase b is going
3410
02:12:48,880 --> 02:12:51,440
to be like that we also could label even
3411
02:12:51,440 --> 02:12:53,760
this up thrust right here as a secondary
3412
02:12:53,760 --> 02:12:56,639
test actually this whole up thrust
3413
02:12:56,639 --> 02:12:58,320
action in
3414
02:12:58,320 --> 02:12:59,520
phase b
3415
02:12:59,520 --> 02:13:02,079
uh has been added you know in this
3416
02:13:02,079 --> 02:13:05,440
course uh we've never used it before um
3417
02:13:05,440 --> 02:13:07,440
you know upthrust always
3418
02:13:07,440 --> 02:13:10,159
has been associated with three things
3419
02:13:10,159 --> 02:13:12,480
uh usually it has been associated with
3420
02:13:12,480 --> 02:13:14,000
the distribution
3421
02:13:14,000 --> 02:13:15,760
you know and hank kind of like you know
3422
02:13:15,760 --> 02:13:18,159
was always on me about this you know
3423
02:13:18,159 --> 02:13:19,599
like adding something new to the
3424
02:13:19,599 --> 02:13:21,760
methodology but it made sense to me to
3425
02:13:21,760 --> 02:13:22,719
do that
3426
02:13:22,719 --> 02:13:26,000
so authres was associated first with the
3427
02:13:26,000 --> 02:13:27,679
up thrust and phase b of the
3428
02:13:27,679 --> 02:13:29,119
distribution
3429
02:13:29,119 --> 02:13:31,920
and then up thrust after distribution in
3430
02:13:31,920 --> 02:13:33,280
phase c
3431
02:13:33,280 --> 02:13:36,159
it also was associated with the
3432
02:13:36,159 --> 02:13:38,480
upward
3433
02:13:38,480 --> 02:13:40,719
thrust
3434
02:13:40,719 --> 02:13:42,320
in the uptrend
3435
02:13:42,320 --> 02:13:43,599
and we would
3436
02:13:43,599 --> 02:13:46,079
use this as a momentum tool
3437
02:13:46,079 --> 02:13:47,920
uh where the momentum increases or
3438
02:13:47,920 --> 02:13:50,239
decreases on the rally
3439
02:13:50,239 --> 02:13:51,360
um
3440
02:13:51,360 --> 02:13:53,840
so when i realized that
3441
02:13:53,840 --> 02:13:56,320
this sub thrust right here has the same
3442
02:13:56,320 --> 02:13:59,719
type of
3443
02:13:59,760 --> 02:14:01,920
action as just the regular authorized
3444
02:14:01,920 --> 02:14:04,480
and distribution it made sense to label
3445
02:14:04,480 --> 02:14:06,800
this as an upthrust action
3446
02:14:06,800 --> 02:14:09,040
rather than an abstract itself i'm going
3447
02:14:09,040 --> 02:14:10,639
to have a slide on you
3448
02:14:10,639 --> 02:14:14,159
for you on this um i think david wise
3449
02:14:14,159 --> 02:14:18,719
gary fullert gary dayton i'm much better
3450
02:14:18,719 --> 02:14:19,679
with
3451
02:14:19,679 --> 02:14:21,520
identification of those up-thrust
3452
02:14:21,520 --> 02:14:23,599
actions everywhere
3453
02:14:23,599 --> 02:14:25,520
and sometimes when i listen to them or i
3454
02:14:25,520 --> 02:14:28,159
conduct sessions with them together
3455
02:14:28,159 --> 02:14:30,079
you know it just kind of amazes me how
3456
02:14:30,079 --> 02:14:33,040
they see this so there is a lot of value
3457
02:14:33,040 --> 02:14:34,960
in that type of work and that type of
3458
02:14:34,960 --> 02:14:36,560
knowledge and i would highly recommend
3459
02:14:36,560 --> 02:14:38,320
for those of you who are not familiar
3460
02:14:38,320 --> 02:14:39,840
with the names that i've pronounced you
3461
02:14:39,840 --> 02:14:42,639
know go check them out you know um i'm
3462
02:14:42,639 --> 02:14:45,920
actually extremely open to
3463
02:14:45,920 --> 02:14:48,239
uh cooperation with all of the wyck of
3464
02:14:48,239 --> 02:14:50,400
teachers you know for those of you guys
3465
02:14:50,400 --> 02:14:52,800
who are not new you guys know that i've
3466
02:14:52,800 --> 02:14:54,800
conducted so many classes with all three
3467
02:14:54,800 --> 02:14:57,599
of them you know and obviously i like to
3468
02:14:57,599 --> 02:14:59,520
teach with other with other teachers
3469
02:14:59,520 --> 02:15:00,880
with other people
3470
02:15:00,880 --> 02:15:03,360
all right so let's conclude this uh
3471
02:15:03,360 --> 02:15:06,000
really quick so after phase c the rally
3472
02:15:06,000 --> 02:15:09,360
up is going to be what
3473
02:15:09,360 --> 02:15:11,920
this um spring
3474
02:15:11,920 --> 02:15:14,800
uh with a spring spring is always going
3475
02:15:14,800 --> 02:15:17,679
to be a lower load to support it's not
3476
02:15:17,679 --> 02:15:19,679
going to be a rally and by the way i've
3477
02:15:19,679 --> 02:15:21,679
seen guys that some of you would put
3478
02:15:21,679 --> 02:15:24,800
like face c somewhere here or like a
3479
02:15:24,800 --> 02:15:28,880
part of the rally no face c
3480
02:15:28,880 --> 02:15:30,800
uh intention what is the intention
3481
02:15:30,800 --> 02:15:31,760
phillip
3482
02:15:31,760 --> 02:15:34,400
for phase c
3483
02:15:35,280 --> 02:15:36,239
uh
3484
02:15:36,239 --> 02:15:39,599
it establishes the new trend and change
3485
02:15:39,599 --> 02:15:40,880
the character
3486
02:15:40,880 --> 02:15:44,079
it's the final test
3487
02:15:44,079 --> 02:15:48,079
final test of supply
3488
02:15:48,880 --> 02:15:51,040
at the support level
3489
02:15:51,040 --> 02:15:53,760
that's what face c is all about
3490
02:15:53,760 --> 02:15:56,960
so it cannot be a rally
3491
02:15:56,960 --> 02:15:59,280
phase three is basically a test
3492
02:15:59,280 --> 02:16:01,599
phase c is not the rally so for those of
3493
02:16:01,599 --> 02:16:03,119
you who are kind of
3494
02:16:03,119 --> 02:16:05,440
mistakenly thinking that phase c could
3495
02:16:05,440 --> 02:16:07,280
be a part of the rally
3496
02:16:07,280 --> 02:16:08,960
uh no
3497
02:16:08,960 --> 02:16:11,119
phase c is the test and the test only
3498
02:16:11,119 --> 02:16:12,880
comes in the accumulation
3499
02:16:12,880 --> 02:16:17,520
as a reaction and not as a rally okay so
3500
02:16:17,520 --> 02:16:19,840
we concluded the screen what is the
3501
02:16:19,840 --> 02:16:21,520
rally that comes after the sprint in
3502
02:16:21,520 --> 02:16:23,920
phase d
3503
02:16:26,079 --> 02:16:28,880
maybe another up thrust action
3504
02:16:28,880 --> 02:16:31,199
i'm not i'm sure sorry
3505
02:16:31,199 --> 02:16:33,439
quick help here write it down guys what
3506
02:16:33,439 --> 02:16:34,879
is this rally
3507
02:16:34,879 --> 02:16:37,599
after phase c and phase d a sign of
3508
02:16:37,599 --> 02:16:39,280
strength that's correct
3509
02:16:39,280 --> 02:16:40,879
a major sign of strength okay and then
3510
02:16:40,879 --> 02:16:44,159
the reaction after that
3511
02:16:44,638 --> 02:16:45,760
is gonna be
3512
02:16:45,760 --> 02:16:48,799
a backing up action correct as well
3513
02:16:48,799 --> 02:16:50,478
so um
3514
02:16:50,478 --> 02:16:53,280
that would conclude phase d
3515
02:16:53,280 --> 02:16:55,519
but we have a much
3516
02:16:55,519 --> 02:16:58,879
bigger formation here so look at how
3517
02:16:58,879 --> 02:16:59,760
one
3518
02:16:59,760 --> 02:17:02,318
formation is on the top of another
3519
02:17:02,318 --> 02:17:04,240
so we are seeing here
3520
02:17:04,240 --> 02:17:07,359
a cell in climax as a stopping action
3521
02:17:07,359 --> 02:17:10,160
in their original range then we see
3522
02:17:10,160 --> 02:17:13,200
abind climax as a stopping action for
3523
02:17:13,200 --> 02:17:16,439
the re-accumulation
3524
02:17:19,840 --> 02:17:21,920
and then we are seeing another formation
3525
02:17:21,920 --> 02:17:24,160
which is reaccumulation as well and it
3526
02:17:24,160 --> 02:17:28,840
starts also with divine climax
3527
02:17:29,359 --> 02:17:32,000
but on the higher
3528
02:17:32,000 --> 02:17:34,879
magnitude level that was a major sign of
3529
02:17:34,879 --> 02:17:37,120
strength that we've just discussed
3530
02:17:37,120 --> 02:17:40,240
so this whole formation here is just
3531
02:17:40,240 --> 02:17:43,200
basically a major
3532
02:17:43,200 --> 02:17:45,760
backing up action
3533
02:17:45,760 --> 02:17:48,160
that starts with the
3534
02:17:48,160 --> 02:17:50,799
buying climax with the stop in action
3535
02:17:50,799 --> 02:17:52,398
and then what would be the first
3536
02:17:52,398 --> 02:17:56,318
reaction how would we label this phillip
3537
02:17:57,120 --> 02:18:01,200
automatic reaction okay the next rally
3538
02:18:01,200 --> 02:18:03,760
secondary test secondary test concludes
3539
02:18:03,760 --> 02:18:05,760
our phase a
3540
02:18:05,760 --> 02:18:06,718
okay
3541
02:18:06,718 --> 02:18:07,679
uh
3542
02:18:07,679 --> 02:18:11,040
look at the character with which this
3543
02:18:11,040 --> 02:18:14,080
rally and this reaction moves
3544
02:18:14,080 --> 02:18:16,000
how would we label those is this the
3545
02:18:16,000 --> 02:18:17,280
best rally
3546
02:18:17,280 --> 02:18:20,718
so far in this smaller trading range
3547
02:18:20,718 --> 02:18:22,160
yeah it is
3548
02:18:22,160 --> 02:18:24,318
so when would we experience the best
3549
02:18:24,318 --> 02:18:26,799
rally in the trading range that commits
3550
02:18:26,799 --> 02:18:29,760
above the resistance sustains that
3551
02:18:29,760 --> 02:18:32,080
progress stays above and then
3552
02:18:32,080 --> 02:18:35,040
comes exactly to the support level which
3553
02:18:35,040 --> 02:18:36,398
acted before
3554
02:18:36,398 --> 02:18:39,718
as a resistance
3555
02:18:40,240 --> 02:18:42,240
uh i'm i'm sorry i'm not sure what you
3556
02:18:42,240 --> 02:18:45,040
are asking oh okay so look at how the
3557
02:18:45,040 --> 02:18:48,879
spread here on israeli right increasing
3558
02:18:48,879 --> 02:18:50,799
yeah so it's much better than what we've
3559
02:18:50,799 --> 02:18:52,799
seen before here
3560
02:18:52,799 --> 02:18:53,840
and here
3561
02:18:53,840 --> 02:18:57,200
right so this is the best rally
3562
02:18:57,200 --> 02:18:58,638
in australian range
3563
02:18:58,638 --> 02:19:00,638
we know that the best rally in the
3564
02:19:00,638 --> 02:19:02,478
trading range probably is going to be
3565
02:19:02,478 --> 02:19:04,240
associated with the change of character
3566
02:19:04,240 --> 02:19:06,718
especially on the way out and the change
3567
02:19:06,718 --> 02:19:09,280
of character on the way out is going to
3568
02:19:09,280 --> 02:19:10,398
happen
3569
02:19:10,398 --> 02:19:13,200
in which phase d and phase d and phase d
3570
02:19:13,200 --> 02:19:14,638
is going to be associated with which
3571
02:19:14,638 --> 02:19:17,359
wackoff points
3572
02:19:17,359 --> 02:19:20,799
a sign of strength backing up action yes
3573
02:19:20,799 --> 02:19:23,679
those are the main players last point
3574
02:19:23,679 --> 02:19:26,558
last point of support and also sign of
3575
02:19:26,558 --> 02:19:27,840
strength bar
3576
02:19:27,840 --> 02:19:29,519
okay well we are not concerned about
3577
02:19:29,519 --> 02:19:30,879
this too
3578
02:19:30,879 --> 02:19:32,959
but we definitely want to identify
3579
02:19:32,959 --> 02:19:34,959
silent strength rally and the backing of
3580
02:19:34,959 --> 02:19:37,519
action so does it look like a sign of
3581
02:19:37,519 --> 02:19:39,679
strength rally
3582
02:19:39,679 --> 02:19:40,799
yes
3583
02:19:40,799 --> 02:19:43,439
absolutely yeah the character with which
3584
02:19:43,439 --> 02:19:46,398
the sign of strength rally occurs is
3585
02:19:46,398 --> 02:19:47,439
going to be
3586
02:19:47,439 --> 02:19:49,840
such where the spread to the upside is
3587
02:19:49,840 --> 02:19:51,359
increasing the volume signature is
3588
02:19:51,359 --> 02:19:53,840
increasing and by the definition of the
3589
02:19:53,840 --> 02:19:56,960
sign of strength we need a commitment
3590
02:19:56,960 --> 02:19:59,520
uh staying above and then backing up
3591
02:19:59,520 --> 02:20:02,240
exactly to the level of the support so
3592
02:20:02,240 --> 02:20:04,479
that's exactly what's happening
3593
02:20:04,479 --> 02:20:07,040
right there
3594
02:20:07,359 --> 02:20:10,479
so um this looks like a sign of strength
3595
02:20:10,479 --> 02:20:12,640
and a backing up action if this is a
3596
02:20:12,640 --> 02:20:14,160
sign of strength in backing up action
3597
02:20:14,160 --> 02:20:17,280
then the previous low is what
3598
02:20:17,280 --> 02:20:18,319
is the
3599
02:20:18,319 --> 02:20:20,160
test in c
3600
02:20:20,160 --> 02:20:21,439
excellent
3601
02:20:21,439 --> 02:20:22,240
c
3602
02:20:22,240 --> 02:20:27,280
then everything in between a and c is b
3603
02:20:27,280 --> 02:20:29,439
and then sign of strength rally and the
3604
02:20:29,439 --> 02:20:33,439
backing up action is our phase d
3605
02:20:34,000 --> 02:20:35,520
okay
3606
02:20:35,520 --> 02:20:38,000
and here it is here is our labeling for
3607
02:20:38,000 --> 02:20:39,920
all three trading ranges with the
3608
02:20:39,920 --> 02:20:41,760
changes of character
3609
02:20:41,760 --> 02:20:44,640
uh with
3610
02:20:44,640 --> 02:20:46,399
with all of this you know points that
3611
02:20:46,399 --> 02:20:47,680
we've discussed
3612
02:20:47,680 --> 02:20:49,840
um phillip okay so
3613
02:20:49,840 --> 02:20:50,880
uh
3614
02:20:50,880 --> 02:20:52,720
the main task right now for you
3615
02:20:52,720 --> 02:20:54,880
individually personally
3616
02:20:54,880 --> 02:20:58,080
is to remember the sequence of all of
3617
02:20:58,080 --> 02:20:59,920
the wyckof events that happen in the
3618
02:20:59,920 --> 02:21:01,280
trading page
3619
02:21:01,280 --> 02:21:03,600
so i want this is kind of like a very
3620
02:21:03,600 --> 02:21:06,640
individualized task for you right now so
3621
02:21:06,640 --> 02:21:08,800
i'll start with that and then go to the
3622
02:21:08,800 --> 02:21:11,439
homework next homework all right okay
3623
02:21:11,439 --> 02:21:14,800
thank you sounds great
3624
02:21:15,120 --> 02:21:18,240
all right good progress um so let me see
3625
02:21:18,240 --> 02:21:20,479
what kind of questions we have on this
3626
02:21:20,479 --> 02:21:22,960
slide
3627
02:21:25,280 --> 02:21:27,520
is there any difference between momentum
3628
02:21:27,520 --> 02:21:30,880
and velocity from limb um yeah there is
3629
02:21:30,880 --> 02:21:32,880
definitely a big difference between
3630
02:21:32,880 --> 02:21:35,600
momentum and velocity uh this is not
3631
02:21:35,600 --> 02:21:39,359
something that i want to go in right now
3632
02:21:39,359 --> 02:21:41,040
um
3633
02:21:41,040 --> 02:21:44,319
this is more of the advanced studies and
3634
02:21:44,319 --> 02:21:46,160
i would probably prefer to talk about
3635
02:21:46,160 --> 02:21:48,000
this in practicum
3636
02:21:48,000 --> 02:21:51,520
um but you know at the minion limb you
3637
02:21:51,520 --> 02:21:53,680
could just even
3638
02:21:53,680 --> 02:21:55,600
google definitions on the momentum and
3639
02:21:55,600 --> 02:21:57,600
velocity and doesn't matter that you
3640
02:21:57,600 --> 02:21:59,040
know you're going to get them from like
3641
02:21:59,040 --> 02:22:00,240
physics
3642
02:22:00,240 --> 02:22:02,800
but there is a difference there
3643
02:22:02,800 --> 02:22:05,600
um but we'll talk about this
3644
02:22:05,600 --> 02:22:08,399
in a slightly different context uh later
3645
02:22:08,399 --> 02:22:12,240
on uh it's just a big discussion there
3646
02:22:12,240 --> 02:22:14,640
okay
3647
02:22:14,640 --> 02:22:16,640
how can you tell the difference
3648
02:22:16,640 --> 02:22:18,880
of the first recumulation and the second
3649
02:22:18,880 --> 02:22:21,200
and what would be that different joel
3650
02:22:21,200 --> 02:22:22,479
you know what do you mean by the
3651
02:22:22,479 --> 02:22:24,000
difference
3652
02:22:24,000 --> 02:22:25,600
when you might be looking for a backing
3653
02:22:25,600 --> 02:22:27,280
up action okay
3654
02:22:27,280 --> 02:22:29,200
um
3655
02:22:29,200 --> 02:22:30,240
so
3656
02:22:30,240 --> 02:22:32,319
the i think that the biggest problem
3657
02:22:32,319 --> 02:22:33,359
here
3658
02:22:33,359 --> 02:22:36,800
with the backing up action is actually
3659
02:22:36,800 --> 02:22:38,560
a somewhat of a
3660
02:22:38,560 --> 02:22:40,240
not very distinct
3661
02:22:40,240 --> 02:22:42,160
sign of strength
3662
02:22:42,160 --> 02:22:44,399
because when we look at this area right
3663
02:22:44,399 --> 02:22:46,800
here and especially taking this tail we
3664
02:22:46,800 --> 02:22:48,319
might say that there is not really a
3665
02:22:48,319 --> 02:22:50,720
commitment to the upside here but
3666
02:22:50,720 --> 02:22:52,960
remember this already acts as a minus
3667
02:22:52,960 --> 02:22:55,439
sign of strength so if the price is
3668
02:22:55,439 --> 02:22:57,520
going to come to the same level
3669
02:22:57,520 --> 02:22:59,359
that's at the mean already a minus sign
3670
02:22:59,359 --> 02:23:00,399
of strength
3671
02:23:00,399 --> 02:23:03,359
but we have a much better commitment if
3672
02:23:03,359 --> 02:23:06,080
the highest commitment was here
3673
02:23:06,080 --> 02:23:07,680
then the highest commitment for the
3674
02:23:07,680 --> 02:23:10,560
second rally is higher you know it's it
3675
02:23:10,560 --> 02:23:12,560
just definitely shows
3676
02:23:12,560 --> 02:23:14,399
that there is a much
3677
02:23:14,399 --> 02:23:16,399
not much better commitment but a better
3678
02:23:16,399 --> 02:23:18,479
commitment to the upside
3679
02:23:18,479 --> 02:23:20,399
now the next problem
3680
02:23:20,399 --> 02:23:22,160
that we have here is the backing up
3681
02:23:22,160 --> 02:23:23,520
action itself
3682
02:23:23,520 --> 02:23:26,479
the backing up action actually looks
3683
02:23:26,479 --> 02:23:29,840
very normal there is no increased
3684
02:23:29,840 --> 02:23:32,479
spread to the downside that we see here
3685
02:23:32,479 --> 02:23:35,359
which is great that tells us that supply
3686
02:23:35,359 --> 02:23:36,960
is going lower
3687
02:23:36,960 --> 02:23:39,760
um it actually comes to the level of the
3688
02:23:39,760 --> 02:23:42,240
buying climax and then stops there and
3689
02:23:42,240 --> 02:23:44,319
acts as a spring comes back into the
3690
02:23:44,319 --> 02:23:47,280
trading range so everything looks normal
3691
02:23:47,280 --> 02:23:49,200
and i would be actually initiating my
3692
02:23:49,200 --> 02:23:52,160
position right on this bar right here
3693
02:23:52,160 --> 02:23:54,319
this would be my last point
3694
02:23:54,319 --> 02:23:55,359
my
3695
02:23:55,359 --> 02:23:57,120
next to last point of
3696
02:23:57,120 --> 02:23:59,600
entry here just based on this the first
3697
02:23:59,600 --> 02:24:02,640
one is going to be sprint itself
3698
02:24:02,640 --> 02:24:04,880
to reversal off the spring
3699
02:24:04,880 --> 02:24:08,000
uh sign of strength bar
3700
02:24:08,000 --> 02:24:09,920
and then you have to stop because of the
3701
02:24:09,920 --> 02:24:11,040
resistance
3702
02:24:11,040 --> 02:24:13,120
level and then the next one is going to
3703
02:24:13,120 --> 02:24:16,160
be so this is one two three
3704
02:24:16,160 --> 02:24:18,160
point number four right of the backing
3705
02:24:18,160 --> 02:24:20,399
up action so i would be already fully
3706
02:24:20,399 --> 02:24:23,040
committed into this position
3707
02:24:23,040 --> 02:24:25,439
based on you know how the price has
3708
02:24:25,439 --> 02:24:27,439
developed at this point of time and it
3709
02:24:27,439 --> 02:24:29,439
still would be profitable right so we're
3710
02:24:29,439 --> 02:24:31,840
profitable right away we are profitable
3711
02:24:31,840 --> 02:24:34,880
throughout this whole um formation now
3712
02:24:34,880 --> 02:24:36,960
what happens here is
3713
02:24:36,960 --> 02:24:38,160
um
3714
02:24:38,160 --> 02:24:40,720
here we are losing the momentum and that
3715
02:24:40,720 --> 02:24:42,479
suggests some kind of reaction the
3716
02:24:42,479 --> 02:24:44,800
reaction is actually somewhat healthy it
3717
02:24:44,800 --> 02:24:46,399
doesn't
3718
02:24:46,399 --> 02:24:48,880
prolong for a long time it doesn't have
3719
02:24:48,880 --> 02:24:50,800
a big distance to the downside the
3720
02:24:50,800 --> 02:24:53,600
spread does not increase significantly
3721
02:24:53,600 --> 02:24:56,160
but it's still somewhat different than
3722
02:24:56,160 --> 02:24:57,200
let's say
3723
02:24:57,200 --> 02:24:59,120
you know this action right here it has
3724
02:24:59,120 --> 02:25:01,520
some gaps to the downside actually two
3725
02:25:01,520 --> 02:25:03,760
of them um it has some kind of
3726
02:25:03,760 --> 02:25:06,720
volatility associated with this so that
3727
02:25:06,720 --> 02:25:09,040
requires another test so at this point
3728
02:25:09,040 --> 02:25:10,880
of time you know that there's going to
3729
02:25:10,880 --> 02:25:13,359
be a test of this area and you might
3730
02:25:13,359 --> 02:25:15,120
even just say if there's going to be a
3731
02:25:15,120 --> 02:25:16,720
test then
3732
02:25:16,720 --> 02:25:18,960
if i decide to enter somewhere here it's
3733
02:25:18,960 --> 02:25:20,720
going to be inefficient why it's going
3734
02:25:20,720 --> 02:25:23,359
to be an efficient well
3735
02:25:23,359 --> 02:25:24,479
just because
3736
02:25:24,479 --> 02:25:27,280
if the test requires time
3737
02:25:27,280 --> 02:25:29,280
then
3738
02:25:29,280 --> 02:25:31,760
it's going to take some time
3739
02:25:31,760 --> 02:25:34,240
so therefore we are waiting for the test
3740
02:25:34,240 --> 02:25:36,560
of the test and it comes on the next
3741
02:25:36,560 --> 02:25:38,640
reaction we see how different this
3742
02:25:38,640 --> 02:25:40,800
reaction from the previous one that's
3743
02:25:40,800 --> 02:25:42,240
going to be our
3744
02:25:42,240 --> 02:25:44,720
point of entry number five
3745
02:25:44,720 --> 02:25:46,800
and then from here
3746
02:25:46,800 --> 02:25:49,200
i mean i've talked to phillip and we
3747
02:25:49,200 --> 02:25:51,040
identified that the character of this
3748
02:25:51,040 --> 02:25:53,680
rally is different than anything before
3749
02:25:53,680 --> 02:25:55,760
in this range so therefore a sign of
3750
02:25:55,760 --> 02:25:57,920
strength and then the backing up action
3751
02:25:57,920 --> 02:26:00,560
is kind of shallow so again you could
3752
02:26:00,560 --> 02:26:02,880
add to the position here you could also
3753
02:26:02,880 --> 02:26:05,760
add on this bar so that's number five
3754
02:26:05,760 --> 02:26:09,120
that's number six number four
3755
02:26:09,120 --> 02:26:10,319
three
3756
02:26:10,319 --> 02:26:12,000
two one
3757
02:26:12,000 --> 02:26:14,479
and then after that you're gonna be
3758
02:26:14,479 --> 02:26:17,439
thinking that either this or this
3759
02:26:17,439 --> 02:26:19,040
is gonna be your
3760
02:26:19,040 --> 02:26:22,000
uh seven and eight so there are quite a
3761
02:26:22,000 --> 02:26:24,080
few points of entry and by the way for
3762
02:26:24,080 --> 02:26:26,000
those of you who are campaign investors
3763
02:26:26,000 --> 02:26:28,479
and we by the way we have quite a lot so
3764
02:26:28,479 --> 02:26:30,479
in this class so i will be pointing
3765
02:26:30,479 --> 02:26:33,520
those things out a lot you know um you
3766
02:26:33,520 --> 02:26:36,479
know campaign points of entry uh look at
3767
02:26:36,479 --> 02:26:38,960
this in the original accumulation you
3768
02:26:38,960 --> 02:26:40,880
want to enter on the
3769
02:26:40,880 --> 02:26:43,439
um because this is a higher low you know
3770
02:26:43,439 --> 02:26:45,920
this is your
3771
02:26:45,920 --> 02:26:48,720
these are your points of entry here
3772
02:26:48,720 --> 02:26:51,520
and then this one so this is going to be
3773
02:26:51,520 --> 02:26:53,120
uh
3774
02:26:53,120 --> 02:26:56,319
minus 4 minus 3
3775
02:26:56,319 --> 02:26:58,880
minus 2 minus 1.
3776
02:26:58,880 --> 02:27:00,880
so those are the points of entry that
3777
02:27:00,880 --> 02:27:02,319
you're going to have in each of the
3778
02:27:02,319 --> 02:27:06,160
trading ranges and please note
3779
02:27:06,160 --> 02:27:08,000
for the long-term investor
3780
02:27:08,000 --> 02:27:10,240
we are companion
3781
02:27:10,240 --> 02:27:13,280
from one trading range to another
3782
02:27:13,280 --> 02:27:15,439
our goal is to
3783
02:27:15,439 --> 02:27:16,800
um
3784
02:27:16,800 --> 02:27:18,880
establish the position at the correct
3785
02:27:18,880 --> 02:27:21,359
timing with the correct bias so here is
3786
02:27:21,359 --> 02:27:23,439
our regional positions that we are
3787
02:27:23,439 --> 02:27:25,760
opening and then open them at the higher
3788
02:27:25,760 --> 02:27:27,760
prices price level
3789
02:27:27,760 --> 02:27:32,000
at the point where phase c is happening
3790
02:27:32,000 --> 02:27:34,880
and nothing else
3791
02:27:35,600 --> 02:27:36,880
and then
3792
02:27:36,880 --> 02:27:38,560
in the next formation we're doing the
3793
02:27:38,560 --> 02:27:41,359
same phase c and then all of the other
3794
02:27:41,359 --> 02:27:43,680
entries in phase d
3795
02:27:43,680 --> 02:27:46,960
so every time you scale in and you
3796
02:27:46,960 --> 02:27:49,120
increase your position size
3797
02:27:49,120 --> 02:27:51,280
you are doing this at the higher level
3798
02:27:51,280 --> 02:27:53,600
and you're doing this in such way that
3799
02:27:53,600 --> 02:27:56,479
defines the timing of when the price
3800
02:27:56,479 --> 02:27:58,640
leaves the trillion range
3801
02:27:58,640 --> 02:28:00,479
i mean obviously maybe with an exception
3802
02:28:00,479 --> 02:28:01,600
of this
3803
02:28:01,600 --> 02:28:04,319
point of entry
3804
02:28:04,319 --> 02:28:06,560
the goal for the long-term investor and
3805
02:28:06,560 --> 02:28:08,640
the way how i view my long-term
3806
02:28:08,640 --> 02:28:10,160
campaigns
3807
02:28:10,160 --> 02:28:12,800
is to be in the correct stock that is
3808
02:28:12,800 --> 02:28:13,920
going to
3809
02:28:13,920 --> 02:28:16,080
uh have a very
3810
02:28:16,080 --> 02:28:18,960
prolonged cyclical move to the upside
3811
02:28:18,960 --> 02:28:21,680
where i could hold on to this position
3812
02:28:21,680 --> 02:28:24,160
beyond one gear that's number one that's
3813
02:28:24,160 --> 02:28:26,800
number one goal the my second goal is to
3814
02:28:26,800 --> 02:28:29,280
stay in this position until it's done
3815
02:28:29,280 --> 02:28:30,720
until this
3816
02:28:30,720 --> 02:28:33,359
cyclical run is done so we have to have
3817
02:28:33,359 --> 02:28:35,680
a significant change of character to
3818
02:28:35,680 --> 02:28:38,080
define the ending of the campaign there
3819
02:28:38,080 --> 02:28:39,600
are certain characteristics to the
3820
02:28:39,600 --> 02:28:41,359
ending of the campaign that you know we
3821
02:28:41,359 --> 02:28:43,040
would be
3822
02:28:43,040 --> 02:28:45,280
we would be thinking about
3823
02:28:45,280 --> 02:28:46,240
um
3824
02:28:46,240 --> 02:28:48,880
and also
3825
02:28:48,880 --> 02:28:51,600
when i'm in the correct position
3826
02:28:51,600 --> 02:28:53,280
for the law as a long-term campaign
3827
02:28:53,280 --> 02:28:54,720
position
3828
02:28:54,720 --> 02:28:56,960
i want to be aggressive
3829
02:28:56,960 --> 02:28:59,439
with my next points of entries because
3830
02:28:59,439 --> 02:29:01,200
the trend is defined
3831
02:29:01,200 --> 02:29:03,200
and now i just know that it's all up to
3832
02:29:03,200 --> 02:29:05,760
me to define the correct timing
3833
02:29:05,760 --> 02:29:07,760
uh on the next step in stone
3834
02:29:07,760 --> 02:29:09,680
pre-accumulation range
3835
02:29:09,680 --> 02:29:12,720
and to define the correct entry
3836
02:29:12,720 --> 02:29:15,520
and to scale in more to create a
3837
02:29:15,520 --> 02:29:18,240
substantial position so when it comes to
3838
02:29:18,240 --> 02:29:20,319
the conclusion on the climactic run
3839
02:29:20,319 --> 02:29:21,760
which is going to be the terminal
3840
02:29:21,760 --> 02:29:23,359
climactic run
3841
02:29:23,359 --> 02:29:26,240
i have a lot of money there built in as
3842
02:29:26,240 --> 02:29:28,479
an unrealized game and i'm going to take
3843
02:29:28,479 --> 02:29:31,040
the profits at that point of time or
3844
02:29:31,040 --> 02:29:32,479
scale out
3845
02:29:32,479 --> 02:29:33,600
so
3846
02:29:33,600 --> 02:29:35,200
when you're right
3847
02:29:35,200 --> 02:29:36,880
be a peak
3848
02:29:36,880 --> 02:29:38,800
don't be scared
3849
02:29:38,800 --> 02:29:41,520
and i'm you know i'm saying be a pig
3850
02:29:41,520 --> 02:29:43,680
obviously i'm referring to
3851
02:29:43,680 --> 02:29:46,560
uh george soros and specifically his
3852
02:29:46,560 --> 02:29:50,720
trade in 1991 92 when he shorted british
3853
02:29:50,720 --> 02:29:51,920
pound
3854
02:29:51,920 --> 02:29:54,240
so i was reading about this trade and
3855
02:29:54,240 --> 02:29:56,080
you can get his book and he talks about
3856
02:29:56,080 --> 02:29:58,000
this trade
3857
02:29:58,000 --> 02:30:00,160
he exposed
3858
02:30:00,160 --> 02:30:03,120
uh his fund to four percent of risk on
3859
02:30:03,120 --> 02:30:05,040
this trade
3860
02:30:05,040 --> 02:30:06,720
so and you know working with
3861
02:30:06,720 --> 02:30:09,920
institutions all clients you know i must
3862
02:30:09,920 --> 02:30:12,000
say that four percent
3863
02:30:12,000 --> 02:30:14,560
you know for them could be a substantial
3864
02:30:14,560 --> 02:30:15,439
risk
3865
02:30:15,439 --> 02:30:17,120
but george soros
3866
02:30:17,120 --> 02:30:19,840
is not a very necessarily kind of like
3867
02:30:19,840 --> 02:30:22,640
your typical institutional type
3868
02:30:22,640 --> 02:30:24,399
here's what i call
3869
02:30:24,399 --> 02:30:26,319
a and this is very close to me because i
3870
02:30:26,319 --> 02:30:27,920
trade the same way
3871
02:30:27,920 --> 02:30:30,240
more of the concentrated
3872
02:30:30,240 --> 02:30:33,280
portfolio investor whenever he sees
3873
02:30:33,280 --> 02:30:35,680
opportunity and it works in his favor he
3874
02:30:35,680 --> 02:30:38,160
could add to the position and go beyond
3875
02:30:38,160 --> 02:30:41,280
your regular uh risk parameters and
3876
02:30:41,280 --> 02:30:43,680
that's what i'm suggesting here
3877
02:30:43,680 --> 02:30:46,479
uh you know if you're at the advanced
3878
02:30:46,479 --> 02:30:48,720
level and you feel comfortable
3879
02:30:48,720 --> 02:30:50,800
with all of these concepts and with
3880
02:30:50,800 --> 02:30:52,720
trading in general you could be
3881
02:30:52,720 --> 02:30:55,439
aggressive with at specific spots with
3882
02:30:55,439 --> 02:30:57,120
the specific stocks
3883
02:30:57,120 --> 02:30:58,960
with the specific patterns
3884
02:30:58,960 --> 02:31:01,200
this is a pattern right here that could
3885
02:31:01,200 --> 02:31:03,680
have that type of aggression for us
3886
02:31:03,680 --> 02:31:05,120
that we could call
3887
02:31:05,120 --> 02:31:07,280
all right great we'll talk more about
3888
02:31:07,280 --> 02:31:09,200
this later
3889
02:31:09,200 --> 02:31:11,200
as you guys could see there are quite a
3890
02:31:11,200 --> 02:31:12,640
few
3891
02:31:12,640 --> 02:31:17,439
you know uh things that are still ahead
3892
02:31:22,000 --> 02:31:25,600
okay are several reaccumulation close to
3893
02:31:25,600 --> 02:31:28,960
each other sign of very strong bullish
3894
02:31:28,960 --> 02:31:30,720
move yet to come all of these
3895
02:31:30,720 --> 02:31:32,720
re-accumulations i'm always tax uh
3896
02:31:32,720 --> 02:31:35,920
stacked on top of each other with bias
3897
02:31:35,920 --> 02:31:39,040
um towards upside from um
3898
02:31:39,040 --> 02:31:41,680
knowledge a nilish okay so i might be
3899
02:31:41,680 --> 02:31:44,000
misinterpreting the name again
3900
02:31:44,000 --> 02:31:46,960
um mispronouncing
3901
02:31:46,960 --> 02:31:49,840
there is a logic in what is being said
3902
02:31:49,840 --> 02:31:50,720
here
3903
02:31:50,720 --> 02:31:51,520
but
3904
02:31:51,520 --> 02:31:54,000
it's slightly different as to how i
3905
02:31:54,000 --> 02:31:57,160
would explain this our first
3906
02:31:57,160 --> 02:31:59,439
accumulation range
3907
02:31:59,439 --> 02:32:02,240
is not necessarily a part of deformation
3908
02:32:02,240 --> 02:32:05,359
that comes later on but it has a very
3909
02:32:05,359 --> 02:32:07,280
logical
3910
02:32:07,280 --> 02:32:09,760
you know continuation kind of
3911
02:32:09,760 --> 02:32:12,880
of why we have so many trading ranges
3912
02:32:12,880 --> 02:32:15,040
after the original accumulation so think
3913
02:32:15,040 --> 02:32:17,280
about the original accumulation
3914
02:32:17,280 --> 02:32:19,359
what is happening here
3915
02:32:19,359 --> 02:32:22,160
why is this accumulation why is this
3916
02:32:22,160 --> 02:32:24,399
range has this type of structure
3917
02:32:24,399 --> 02:32:26,319
where we are seeing higher highs and
3918
02:32:26,319 --> 02:32:27,840
higher lows
3919
02:32:27,840 --> 02:32:30,319
what do you guys think
3920
02:32:30,319 --> 02:32:32,319
what does this represent
3921
02:32:32,319 --> 02:32:34,080
and what kind of behavior by
3922
02:32:34,080 --> 02:32:35,760
institutions
3923
02:32:35,760 --> 02:32:37,359
could be
3924
02:32:37,359 --> 02:32:40,479
observed through this type of structure
3925
02:32:40,479 --> 02:32:42,240
okay now that's just saying
3926
02:32:42,240 --> 02:32:44,160
urgency to buy
3927
02:32:44,160 --> 02:32:46,960
lots of value co establishing a position
3928
02:32:46,960 --> 02:32:50,720
from joe yes all three are correct and i
3929
02:32:50,720 --> 02:32:53,280
would concentrate on the first two
3930
02:32:53,280 --> 02:32:56,399
because it's an extreme
3931
02:32:56,399 --> 02:32:58,960
oversold condition
3932
02:32:58,960 --> 02:33:01,760
that creates extreme
3933
02:33:01,760 --> 02:33:04,640
value proposition for institutions and
3934
02:33:04,640 --> 02:33:07,520
this extreme value proposition both long
3935
02:33:07,520 --> 02:33:09,920
term and short term
3936
02:33:09,920 --> 02:33:11,920
that's created that's what creates that
3937
02:33:11,920 --> 02:33:14,560
urgent buy
3938
02:33:14,560 --> 02:33:16,720
which we've seen a lot by the way lately
3939
02:33:16,720 --> 02:33:18,479
with the way how the market has been
3940
02:33:18,479 --> 02:33:21,359
behaving and in some of the cases you
3941
02:33:21,359 --> 02:33:23,840
know you see a lot of oversold you know
3942
02:33:23,840 --> 02:33:25,200
conditions
3943
02:33:25,200 --> 02:33:27,760
and from that oversold condition i mean
3944
02:33:27,760 --> 02:33:31,520
like you you take a stock like apple
3945
02:33:31,520 --> 02:33:34,399
uh or um you know other leadership type
3946
02:33:34,399 --> 02:33:36,960
of stocks and then they decline so much
3947
02:33:36,960 --> 02:33:39,840
in such a short period of time but they
3948
02:33:39,840 --> 02:33:41,280
still within the
3949
02:33:41,280 --> 02:33:44,000
secular structure of their campaign
3950
02:33:44,000 --> 02:33:45,600
so how do you think institutions are
3951
02:33:45,600 --> 02:33:47,680
going to look at this think about their
3952
02:33:47,680 --> 02:33:51,200
fundamental macro perspective if a macro
3953
02:33:51,200 --> 02:33:54,560
money manager thinks that um the markets
3954
02:33:54,560 --> 02:33:55,840
are still
3955
02:33:55,840 --> 02:33:57,280
they are short
3956
02:33:57,280 --> 02:34:00,800
vulnerable and weak but they present
3957
02:34:00,800 --> 02:34:03,200
opportunity within the secular
3958
02:34:03,200 --> 02:34:06,080
uptrend structure then he he or she is
3959
02:34:06,080 --> 02:34:08,319
going to come in and just buy whatever
3960
02:34:08,319 --> 02:34:10,319
this election is available to them based
3961
02:34:10,319 --> 02:34:13,760
on the parameters of their system
3962
02:34:13,760 --> 02:34:15,760
and that's going to be their call the
3963
02:34:15,760 --> 02:34:18,160
fundamental money managers are going to
3964
02:34:18,160 --> 02:34:19,680
do the same they're going to see some
3965
02:34:19,680 --> 02:34:22,160
value in the stock like apple
3966
02:34:22,160 --> 02:34:22,960
um
3967
02:34:22,960 --> 02:34:25,520
you know and they could say that i'm
3968
02:34:25,520 --> 02:34:27,520
just based on the fundamentals i see the
3969
02:34:27,520 --> 02:34:30,479
value so i'm going to come in and buy so
3970
02:34:30,479 --> 02:34:32,800
this extreme oversold extreme value
3971
02:34:32,800 --> 02:34:36,319
proposition here creates urgency to buy
3972
02:34:36,319 --> 02:34:38,640
you know at the lows and throughout all
3973
02:34:38,640 --> 02:34:41,680
of the rallies and that's why you know
3974
02:34:41,680 --> 02:34:44,240
this urgent uh buying creates this type
3975
02:34:44,240 --> 02:34:46,000
of structure
3976
02:34:46,000 --> 02:34:48,160
so then think about what happens next
3977
02:34:48,160 --> 02:34:50,160
let's say that the co
3978
02:34:50,160 --> 02:34:51,120
bought
3979
02:34:51,120 --> 02:34:53,280
the position that they needed
3980
02:34:53,280 --> 02:34:55,120
at this point of time
3981
02:34:55,120 --> 02:34:58,399
because supply drastically went down
3982
02:34:58,399 --> 02:35:00,800
the price goes up at this point
3983
02:35:00,800 --> 02:35:03,200
and i would even argue that this moved
3984
02:35:03,200 --> 02:35:05,200
to the upside and you could go and find
3985
02:35:05,200 --> 02:35:07,120
this chart but this is my assumption
3986
02:35:07,120 --> 02:35:09,840
here just looking at how the price moves
3987
02:35:09,840 --> 02:35:12,319
and looking at that co has established
3988
02:35:12,319 --> 02:35:13,520
this position
3989
02:35:13,520 --> 02:35:16,720
co is inactive
3990
02:35:17,200 --> 02:35:18,560
on this rally
3991
02:35:18,560 --> 02:35:20,720
and i doubt that you know uh
3992
02:35:20,720 --> 02:35:22,880
institutional trend follower following
3993
02:35:22,880 --> 02:35:25,520
hands you know also are extremely active
3994
02:35:25,520 --> 02:35:26,960
they might be active more at the
3995
02:35:26,960 --> 02:35:28,640
beginning of the rally but then
3996
02:35:28,640 --> 02:35:32,080
everything else is kind of diminishes uh
3997
02:35:32,080 --> 02:35:34,720
as we see momentum going down the spread
3998
02:35:34,720 --> 02:35:36,000
decreasing
3999
02:35:36,000 --> 02:35:38,800
more laborious move to the upside so
4000
02:35:38,800 --> 02:35:41,280
we're probably seeing that demand is
4001
02:35:41,280 --> 02:35:43,600
going down and then the volume signature
4002
02:35:43,600 --> 02:35:45,840
in general is going to be lower than in
4003
02:35:45,840 --> 02:35:47,760
this area right here
4004
02:35:47,760 --> 02:35:50,560
so as they are in the position and they
4005
02:35:50,560 --> 02:35:52,800
have some profit what do they do well
4006
02:35:52,800 --> 02:35:54,720
they might come in on some points of the
4007
02:35:54,720 --> 02:35:57,040
volatility and you know add to the
4008
02:35:57,040 --> 02:35:59,439
position but it's not necessarily going
4009
02:35:59,439 --> 02:36:02,160
to be a very extreme
4010
02:36:02,160 --> 02:36:03,680
you know big position that they're going
4011
02:36:03,680 --> 02:36:06,160
to establish i would see even more that
4012
02:36:06,160 --> 02:36:08,000
maybe on the rally like this we're going
4013
02:36:08,000 --> 02:36:10,399
to see a lot of increase of the demand
4014
02:36:10,399 --> 02:36:12,240
signature and that's going to be some
4015
02:36:12,240 --> 02:36:14,000
kind of value
4016
02:36:14,000 --> 02:36:14,880
or
4017
02:36:14,880 --> 02:36:18,479
trend following type of institution
4018
02:36:18,479 --> 02:36:20,160
that's going to create this type of the
4019
02:36:20,160 --> 02:36:22,080
position and they're just going to say
4020
02:36:22,080 --> 02:36:23,680
wow
4021
02:36:23,680 --> 02:36:27,359
this has confirmed the trend
4022
02:36:28,720 --> 02:36:31,680
so i'm and then there is some short-term
4023
02:36:31,680 --> 02:36:32,640
value
4024
02:36:32,640 --> 02:36:34,560
that i see here so i'm going to come in
4025
02:36:34,560 --> 02:36:36,800
and buy but the way how they're buying
4026
02:36:36,800 --> 02:36:38,800
they're not buying just one day
4027
02:36:38,800 --> 02:36:40,720
they could be buying multiple days
4028
02:36:40,720 --> 02:36:42,800
multiple weeks so that's what creates
4029
02:36:42,800 --> 02:36:44,000
this rally
4030
02:36:44,000 --> 02:36:46,240
so this is just a buying wave in the
4031
02:36:46,240 --> 02:36:48,240
middle of the trading range by some of
4032
02:36:48,240 --> 02:36:50,319
the institutions because again
4033
02:36:50,319 --> 02:36:52,880
short-term value and long-term value
4034
02:36:52,880 --> 02:36:55,280
still and long-term buys
4035
02:36:55,280 --> 02:36:56,560
and then
4036
02:36:56,560 --> 02:36:57,920
imagine that
4037
02:36:57,920 --> 02:37:00,560
co got in right here
4038
02:37:00,560 --> 02:37:03,280
and then value a proposition for some of
4039
02:37:03,280 --> 02:37:05,439
the institutions at these two spots
4040
02:37:05,439 --> 02:37:07,359
maybe somewhere here
4041
02:37:07,359 --> 02:37:09,840
then the rest of this move is just gonna
4042
02:37:09,840 --> 02:37:12,319
have this signature where
4043
02:37:12,319 --> 02:37:13,280
we're gonna
4044
02:37:13,280 --> 02:37:15,359
still see some
4045
02:37:15,359 --> 02:37:16,560
um
4046
02:37:16,560 --> 02:37:18,560
consistent signature
4047
02:37:18,560 --> 02:37:21,439
of the decline right so something like
4048
02:37:21,439 --> 02:37:23,439
this and then
4049
02:37:23,439 --> 02:37:26,160
decline decline
4050
02:37:26,160 --> 02:37:28,720
decline so you're going to have some
4051
02:37:28,720 --> 02:37:30,399
pockets of
4052
02:37:30,399 --> 02:37:32,880
volume increase throughout this whole
4053
02:37:32,880 --> 02:37:34,960
slide here but
4054
02:37:34,960 --> 02:37:36,319
generally
4055
02:37:36,319 --> 02:37:38,080
your highest volume signature is going
4056
02:37:38,080 --> 02:37:40,319
to be here
4057
02:37:40,319 --> 02:37:42,240
this is the area where
4058
02:37:42,240 --> 02:37:44,560
um out of the oversold condition there
4059
02:37:44,560 --> 02:37:46,560
was so much bind by institutions and
4060
02:37:46,560 --> 02:37:48,800
then it's just going to go down
4061
02:37:48,800 --> 02:37:51,200
and it's going to go down like this
4062
02:37:51,200 --> 02:37:53,359
and then just different pockets where
4063
02:37:53,359 --> 02:37:55,200
locally volume signature is going to
4064
02:37:55,200 --> 02:37:58,240
increase so co bot here
4065
02:37:58,240 --> 02:38:01,840
and then co is inactive
4066
02:38:02,240 --> 02:38:05,520
and that's unfortunately not exactly how
4067
02:38:05,520 --> 02:38:07,920
we were taught we were taught that co is
4068
02:38:07,920 --> 02:38:10,240
operating in each of the trading ranges
4069
02:38:10,240 --> 02:38:12,399
and this is not true
4070
02:38:12,399 --> 02:38:14,399
once they establish the position you
4071
02:38:14,399 --> 02:38:16,319
know and they just go to other stocks
4072
02:38:16,319 --> 02:38:18,319
and it's there with positions there they
4073
02:38:18,319 --> 02:38:20,399
might add on the way up but not
4074
02:38:20,399 --> 02:38:22,479
necessarily it's going to be more a
4075
02:38:22,479 --> 02:38:24,880
function of other institutions seeing
4076
02:38:24,880 --> 02:38:26,800
you know establishment of the trend some
4077
02:38:26,800 --> 02:38:28,399
short-term value
4078
02:38:28,399 --> 02:38:30,560
and then definitely you know just going
4079
02:38:30,560 --> 02:38:32,640
through this whole thing
4080
02:38:32,640 --> 02:38:33,840
all right
4081
02:38:33,840 --> 02:38:38,359
sounds good um what else
4082
02:38:43,439 --> 02:38:45,200
why are you calling the event last point
4083
02:38:45,200 --> 02:38:47,840
of support in phase c instead of this
4084
02:38:47,840 --> 02:38:51,040
spring right here um so this is a high
4085
02:38:51,040 --> 02:38:53,920
low so definitely going to be a
4086
02:38:53,920 --> 02:38:55,600
last point of support
4087
02:38:55,600 --> 02:38:58,399
you could call this an attempt to spring
4088
02:38:58,399 --> 02:39:01,200
but look at this bar right here so uh
4089
02:39:01,200 --> 02:39:03,280
comes down comes below the support so
4090
02:39:03,280 --> 02:39:05,680
it's still a high low so that's why
4091
02:39:05,680 --> 02:39:08,319
we could also be calling a sprint
4092
02:39:08,319 --> 02:39:10,800
something that would go below
4093
02:39:10,800 --> 02:39:12,880
more of the local support so maybe
4094
02:39:12,880 --> 02:39:14,640
something like this then we could say
4095
02:39:14,640 --> 02:39:16,720
that this is a spring relative to this
4096
02:39:16,720 --> 02:39:19,520
law and still a higher low or less point
4097
02:39:19,520 --> 02:39:23,280
of support relative to this law
4098
02:39:23,280 --> 02:39:26,800
okay good question
4099
02:39:27,359 --> 02:39:29,520
all right so let's see where we are so
4100
02:39:29,520 --> 02:39:32,319
we have like what 20 minutes or so
4101
02:39:32,319 --> 02:39:33,600
all right so let's talk about
4102
02:39:33,600 --> 02:39:36,800
identification of phase c
4103
02:39:36,800 --> 02:39:40,000
um how do we identify facey we kind of
4104
02:39:40,000 --> 02:39:41,680
went through this
4105
02:39:41,680 --> 02:39:44,399
and and this is just the shortcuts that
4106
02:39:44,399 --> 02:39:46,640
again i've created for
4107
02:39:46,640 --> 02:39:48,880
for myself and for my students
4108
02:39:48,880 --> 02:39:50,880
this is not necessarily in the
4109
02:39:50,880 --> 02:39:53,040
methodology and that's why you know
4110
02:39:53,040 --> 02:39:55,600
students started calling these romanisms
4111
02:39:55,600 --> 02:39:58,080
so i'm okay with this and kind of like
4112
02:39:58,080 --> 02:40:00,080
when i say that this is the romanism so
4113
02:40:00,080 --> 02:40:02,399
you instantly should be thinking
4114
02:40:02,399 --> 02:40:04,960
um you know not in the method something
4115
02:40:04,960 --> 02:40:07,520
that you know kind of like
4116
02:40:07,520 --> 02:40:10,640
more proprietary to this course and but
4117
02:40:10,640 --> 02:40:12,160
still it's going to be based on the
4118
02:40:12,160 --> 02:40:15,840
ideas of like of ideas so i've talked
4119
02:40:15,840 --> 02:40:17,520
about three tests
4120
02:40:17,520 --> 02:40:19,920
at the support level right so the first
4121
02:40:19,920 --> 02:40:22,399
test is going to be a local test of the
4122
02:40:22,399 --> 02:40:26,080
climactic action second test in phase b
4123
02:40:26,080 --> 02:40:28,240
of the loss of the selling climax and
4124
02:40:28,240 --> 02:40:30,319
the secondary test so in phase b we're
4125
02:40:30,319 --> 02:40:33,760
basically testing the previous tests
4126
02:40:33,760 --> 02:40:36,399
in phase c at the support level this is
4127
02:40:36,399 --> 02:40:38,800
the last test the final
4128
02:40:38,800 --> 02:40:40,960
test of the supply
4129
02:40:40,960 --> 02:40:43,520
at that support level and then our test
4130
02:40:43,520 --> 02:40:46,000
number four is going to be a backing up
4131
02:40:46,000 --> 02:40:47,680
action
4132
02:40:47,680 --> 02:40:50,240
and it kind of is logical to me
4133
02:40:50,240 --> 02:40:51,120
that
4134
02:40:51,120 --> 02:40:53,439
the initial tests are going to be at the
4135
02:40:53,439 --> 02:40:55,840
support level and then the last test is
4136
02:40:55,840 --> 02:40:58,720
going to be at the next value zone
4137
02:40:58,720 --> 02:40:59,520
so
4138
02:40:59,520 --> 02:41:03,200
they've observed the supply at the lows
4139
02:41:03,200 --> 02:41:06,479
that pushes the price up into the
4140
02:41:06,479 --> 02:41:09,279
new highs in this case not necessarily
4141
02:41:09,279 --> 02:41:11,600
new highs but new highs relative to the
4142
02:41:11,600 --> 02:41:14,640
highs in phases a and b so kind of like
4143
02:41:14,640 --> 02:41:17,920
in the same zone as it comes back to
4144
02:41:17,920 --> 02:41:20,720
this area we are going to experience
4145
02:41:20,720 --> 02:41:23,359
some kind of mean reversion trade by
4146
02:41:23,359 --> 02:41:25,600
professionals
4147
02:41:25,600 --> 02:41:27,279
that's going to bring us to the
4148
02:41:27,279 --> 02:41:29,600
increased supply signature
4149
02:41:29,600 --> 02:41:32,160
change of character of the backing up
4150
02:41:32,160 --> 02:41:33,120
action
4151
02:41:33,120 --> 02:41:34,560
and therefore we're going to have some
4152
02:41:34,560 --> 02:41:37,040
kind of tests there
4153
02:41:37,040 --> 02:41:38,800
so a test
4154
02:41:38,800 --> 02:41:40,319
is the test
4155
02:41:40,319 --> 02:41:43,040
number four at this level that we would
4156
02:41:43,040 --> 02:41:44,720
say that it's going to be a backup
4157
02:41:44,720 --> 02:41:46,399
action in phase d
4158
02:41:46,399 --> 02:41:48,800
and it's being confirmed it confirms the
4159
02:41:48,800 --> 02:41:51,279
change of character the conclusion of
4160
02:41:51,279 --> 02:41:53,439
the formation of the change of character
4161
02:41:53,439 --> 02:41:55,520
and then once the resumption of this
4162
02:41:55,520 --> 02:41:57,040
test happens
4163
02:41:57,040 --> 02:41:59,359
then we're going to continue with the
4164
02:41:59,359 --> 02:42:00,479
uptrend
4165
02:42:00,479 --> 02:42:03,520
another identification of phase c
4166
02:42:03,520 --> 02:42:05,840
that is very valuable to us is the
4167
02:42:05,840 --> 02:42:07,600
second point of fear
4168
02:42:07,600 --> 02:42:08,800
so
4169
02:42:08,800 --> 02:42:10,640
points of fear are all going to be
4170
02:42:10,640 --> 02:42:12,479
discussed within the context of the
4171
02:42:12,479 --> 02:42:14,880
sentiment now our first
4172
02:42:14,880 --> 02:42:17,840
sentiment uh bearish sentiment that we
4173
02:42:17,840 --> 02:42:19,680
could find is going to end therefore the
4174
02:42:19,680 --> 02:42:21,200
first point of fear is going to be in
4175
02:42:21,200 --> 02:42:23,600
phase a it's going to be associated with
4176
02:42:23,600 --> 02:42:26,640
the cell and climax why is this point of
4177
02:42:26,640 --> 02:42:28,800
fear develops this way well i think i've
4178
02:42:28,800 --> 02:42:31,359
mentioned this many times
4179
02:42:31,359 --> 02:42:33,680
you know we are experiencing a
4180
02:42:33,680 --> 02:42:36,680
capitulation
4181
02:42:37,680 --> 02:42:38,840
by weak
4182
02:42:38,840 --> 02:42:42,720
hands and in this instance
4183
02:42:42,720 --> 02:42:46,479
it's more of a terminal capitulation
4184
02:42:46,479 --> 02:42:48,160
and therefore
4185
02:42:48,160 --> 02:42:51,040
i sometimes call it a general
4186
02:42:51,040 --> 02:42:53,200
capitulation that would have both
4187
02:42:53,200 --> 02:42:56,080
institutions and public behind this
4188
02:42:56,080 --> 02:42:57,439
capitulation
4189
02:42:57,439 --> 02:42:59,439
and what is the capitulation it's just
4190
02:42:59,439 --> 02:43:02,240
basically panic
4191
02:43:02,240 --> 02:43:04,560
people at this point of time
4192
02:43:04,560 --> 02:43:07,040
are experiencing a lot of emotional pain
4193
02:43:07,040 --> 02:43:09,120
because of the losses
4194
02:43:09,120 --> 02:43:11,439
and they can't withstand this pain
4195
02:43:11,439 --> 02:43:13,279
anymore and they're giving up on their
4196
02:43:13,279 --> 02:43:15,840
positions and they're saying get me out
4197
02:43:15,840 --> 02:43:17,520
at any point of
4198
02:43:17,520 --> 02:43:22,080
price time but just get me out i cannot
4199
02:43:22,080 --> 02:43:24,960
bear this anymore so therefore this type
4200
02:43:24,960 --> 02:43:26,960
of activity is going to be associated
4201
02:43:26,960 --> 02:43:29,439
with a lot of selling
4202
02:43:29,439 --> 02:43:31,680
and a lot of selling is going to produce
4203
02:43:31,680 --> 02:43:34,080
technical characteristics as
4204
02:43:34,080 --> 02:43:36,560
increasing the momentum increasing the
4205
02:43:36,560 --> 02:43:38,080
velocity
4206
02:43:38,080 --> 02:43:40,399
increasing the down spread
4207
02:43:40,399 --> 02:43:43,840
increasing the distance to the downside
4208
02:43:43,840 --> 02:43:46,479
that we see increasing the volume
4209
02:43:46,479 --> 02:43:48,960
signature and specifically increasing
4210
02:43:48,960 --> 02:43:53,200
the supply signature by weekends
4211
02:43:53,359 --> 02:43:54,960
and increase
4212
02:43:54,960 --> 02:43:57,120
of the demand signature
4213
02:43:57,120 --> 02:44:00,080
by strong hands
4214
02:44:00,399 --> 02:44:03,680
so first point of fear
4215
02:44:03,680 --> 02:44:06,000
the second point of fear is not
4216
02:44:06,000 --> 02:44:09,040
necessarily going to be in phase b
4217
02:44:09,040 --> 02:44:09,920
it
4218
02:44:09,920 --> 02:44:11,920
could be in phase c
4219
02:44:11,920 --> 02:44:14,000
why is that well think about the
4220
02:44:14,000 --> 02:44:16,240
sentiment of weak hands they just sold
4221
02:44:16,240 --> 02:44:18,720
here and then the price went up what do
4222
02:44:18,720 --> 02:44:21,439
you think they feel at this point
4223
02:44:21,439 --> 02:44:24,080
this is definitely a regret that they
4224
02:44:24,080 --> 02:44:24,880
have
4225
02:44:24,880 --> 02:44:28,160
so what are they gonna do
4226
02:44:29,200 --> 02:44:31,279
they're gonna buy
4227
02:44:31,279 --> 02:44:33,040
if they're regretful
4228
02:44:33,040 --> 02:44:34,720
that they didn't buy and they didn't
4229
02:44:34,720 --> 02:44:37,120
hold on to this and the price went up
4230
02:44:37,120 --> 02:44:38,160
like this
4231
02:44:38,160 --> 02:44:40,080
they're gonna buy here and they're gonna
4232
02:44:40,080 --> 02:44:42,000
buy here and they're gonna buy somewhere
4233
02:44:42,000 --> 02:44:43,520
here
4234
02:44:43,520 --> 02:44:46,000
now as the price goes down in phase b
4235
02:44:46,000 --> 02:44:48,080
into another test
4236
02:44:48,080 --> 02:44:51,760
what do you think they're gonna do now
4237
02:44:52,880 --> 02:44:55,359
they probably gonna say well i gave up
4238
02:44:55,359 --> 02:44:57,920
my position on the selling climax and
4239
02:44:57,920 --> 02:45:00,479
that was a mistake
4240
02:45:00,479 --> 02:45:04,240
so this time i'm gonna hold on
4241
02:45:04,240 --> 02:45:05,840
to this position
4242
02:45:05,840 --> 02:45:07,920
have you guys done this
4243
02:45:07,920 --> 02:45:11,279
well i definitely have done this before
4244
02:45:11,279 --> 02:45:12,319
so
4245
02:45:12,319 --> 02:45:14,319
i'm just happy i'm i'm not doing this
4246
02:45:14,319 --> 02:45:16,800
anymore but that was the sentiment you
4247
02:45:16,800 --> 02:45:18,240
know that's how
4248
02:45:18,240 --> 02:45:21,120
you know we trade when we are amateurs
4249
02:45:21,120 --> 02:45:23,040
we trade on
4250
02:45:23,040 --> 02:45:26,960
our behaviors on our emotions
4251
02:45:26,960 --> 02:45:29,680
we cannot control those yet
4252
02:45:29,680 --> 02:45:31,680
so they are holding on to this position
4253
02:45:31,680 --> 02:45:34,479
and when the price goes down they're
4254
02:45:34,479 --> 02:45:37,279
still saying it will go up
4255
02:45:37,279 --> 02:45:40,160
and as it goes up what do they feel
4256
02:45:40,160 --> 02:45:42,800
they feel happiness right so they feel
4257
02:45:42,800 --> 02:45:45,359
happy because the price goes by and
4258
02:45:45,359 --> 02:45:47,439
they're saying that was a good uh
4259
02:45:47,439 --> 02:45:50,160
decision to buy here hold on to the
4260
02:45:50,160 --> 02:45:52,880
stock and now the price is back almost
4261
02:45:52,880 --> 02:45:56,000
into the same area
4262
02:45:56,000 --> 02:45:58,080
they feel happy so they're holding on to
4263
02:45:58,080 --> 02:45:59,520
the position and they might be even
4264
02:45:59,520 --> 02:46:01,279
adding to the position
4265
02:46:01,279 --> 02:46:03,920
uh maybe somewhere at this spot right
4266
02:46:03,920 --> 02:46:06,080
here
4267
02:46:06,080 --> 02:46:07,920
so imagine what happens next when the
4268
02:46:07,920 --> 02:46:11,439
price gets down and has some kind of
4269
02:46:11,439 --> 02:46:15,279
you know or goes down just a little bit
4270
02:46:15,279 --> 02:46:16,399
what do you think they're gonna
4271
02:46:16,399 --> 02:46:19,279
experience that
4272
02:46:19,279 --> 02:46:20,880
i mean they've been
4273
02:46:20,880 --> 02:46:22,000
through this
4274
02:46:22,000 --> 02:46:25,279
ups and downs emotional ups and downs
4275
02:46:25,279 --> 02:46:28,399
up to the uh phase c point
4276
02:46:28,399 --> 02:46:31,439
and they are so exhausted
4277
02:46:31,439 --> 02:46:34,880
they are extremely exhausted emotionally
4278
02:46:34,880 --> 02:46:36,399
and they're just saying at this point
4279
02:46:36,399 --> 02:46:38,640
when the price goes down into phase c
4280
02:46:38,640 --> 02:46:39,439
low
4281
02:46:39,439 --> 02:46:43,200
they're saying like get me out
4282
02:46:44,080 --> 02:46:48,560
and this time they make a promise
4283
02:46:48,960 --> 02:46:50,880
what is that promise by the way guys
4284
02:46:50,880 --> 02:46:52,640
could you think of one
4285
02:46:52,640 --> 02:46:56,160
well that's promise is to never
4286
02:46:56,160 --> 02:46:59,359
trade this stock again
4287
02:47:02,880 --> 02:47:04,720
or at least for the time being
4288
02:47:04,720 --> 02:47:06,640
it's an emotional withdrawal from
4289
02:47:06,640 --> 02:47:07,840
emotional
4290
02:47:07,840 --> 02:47:11,200
pain that is based on just inexperience
4291
02:47:11,200 --> 02:47:13,359
no knowledge no skill
4292
02:47:13,359 --> 02:47:16,479
um and unfortunately you know that's how
4293
02:47:16,479 --> 02:47:19,359
we can say you know
4294
02:47:19,359 --> 02:47:20,720
you know that's their pattern that's
4295
02:47:20,720 --> 02:47:22,160
their cycle
4296
02:47:22,160 --> 02:47:24,240
they will go to the next talk and they
4297
02:47:24,240 --> 02:47:26,160
will experience the same things over and
4298
02:47:26,160 --> 02:47:28,160
over it could be a different contextual
4299
02:47:28,160 --> 02:47:30,000
interpretation of the sentiment of how
4300
02:47:30,000 --> 02:47:32,560
it happens but basically
4301
02:47:32,560 --> 02:47:35,120
on the very primal level of how we
4302
02:47:35,120 --> 02:47:37,520
experience emotions it's going to be the
4303
02:47:37,520 --> 02:47:39,840
same so that's why
4304
02:47:39,840 --> 02:47:43,600
this is going to be the second time
4305
02:47:43,600 --> 02:47:44,960
where they're going to
4306
02:47:44,960 --> 02:47:49,160
weak hands are going to capitulate
4307
02:47:49,600 --> 02:47:51,600
now this is going to be a less of
4308
02:47:51,600 --> 02:47:54,560
capitulation
4309
02:47:55,200 --> 02:47:56,640
just because
4310
02:47:56,640 --> 02:48:00,319
and it's going to be more public
4311
02:48:00,840 --> 02:48:03,520
capitulation then institutional why
4312
02:48:03,520 --> 02:48:06,240
because institutional
4313
02:48:06,240 --> 02:48:08,880
weak hands they are much better learners
4314
02:48:08,880 --> 02:48:10,080
they are much
4315
02:48:10,080 --> 02:48:12,640
more adaptive because if they don't
4316
02:48:12,640 --> 02:48:14,080
adopt quicker they're going to lose
4317
02:48:14,080 --> 02:48:15,359
their job they're going to lose their
4318
02:48:15,359 --> 02:48:16,880
salaries
4319
02:48:16,880 --> 02:48:19,200
money management is based on the
4320
02:48:19,200 --> 02:48:21,359
performance matrix
4321
02:48:21,359 --> 02:48:23,680
so if you don't perform you don't get
4322
02:48:23,680 --> 02:48:25,359
the money you don't get the salary you
4323
02:48:25,359 --> 02:48:26,800
don't have a job
4324
02:48:26,800 --> 02:48:29,120
so it's much stricter there than with
4325
02:48:29,120 --> 02:48:32,479
the public so therefore the institutions
4326
02:48:32,479 --> 02:48:34,319
hopefully learn much faster at least of
4327
02:48:34,319 --> 02:48:36,240
what i see you know working with them
4328
02:48:36,240 --> 02:48:38,240
and working with the with the public
4329
02:48:38,240 --> 02:48:40,560
retail uh traders so therefore the
4330
02:48:40,560 --> 02:48:42,319
second point of fear is going to be more
4331
02:48:42,319 --> 02:48:44,240
associated with public than with
4332
02:48:44,240 --> 02:48:46,560
institutions and if that's the case
4333
02:48:46,560 --> 02:48:49,120
usually the volume signature on this is
4334
02:48:49,120 --> 02:48:52,960
going to increase locally
4335
02:48:54,160 --> 02:48:57,120
off phase b
4336
02:48:57,120 --> 02:49:01,279
but it's going to decrease
4337
02:49:05,120 --> 02:49:07,680
relative
4338
02:49:08,640 --> 02:49:12,000
to phase a law relative to selling
4339
02:49:12,000 --> 02:49:15,279
climax where we have both institutions
4340
02:49:15,279 --> 02:49:19,520
and public capitulating at the same time
4341
02:49:19,600 --> 02:49:21,920
that's a very small nuance but it's a
4342
02:49:21,920 --> 02:49:23,840
very very big point
4343
02:49:23,840 --> 02:49:26,160
because if you could see this logic
4344
02:49:26,160 --> 02:49:28,160
through the chart
4345
02:49:28,160 --> 02:49:30,479
and you could understand that with the
4346
02:49:30,479 --> 02:49:32,560
public capitulation here going into
4347
02:49:32,560 --> 02:49:33,760
phase c
4348
02:49:33,760 --> 02:49:35,680
and we're seeing that on the technical
4349
02:49:35,680 --> 02:49:37,279
picture the price goes down but then
4350
02:49:37,279 --> 02:49:39,279
quickly comes back
4351
02:49:39,279 --> 02:49:40,960
you might be thinking this is the last
4352
02:49:40,960 --> 02:49:43,600
time when public capitulates
4353
02:49:43,600 --> 02:49:45,680
and where institutions the last time at
4354
02:49:45,680 --> 02:49:47,920
the support level are actually buying a
4355
02:49:47,920 --> 02:49:50,000
meaningful position
4356
02:49:50,000 --> 02:49:51,520
and they add them to the position that
4357
02:49:51,520 --> 02:49:53,840
they already have
4358
02:49:53,840 --> 02:49:55,439
therefore
4359
02:49:55,439 --> 02:49:58,399
this last
4360
02:49:58,560 --> 02:50:00,560
public supply
4361
02:50:00,560 --> 02:50:01,840
is observed
4362
02:50:01,840 --> 02:50:04,080
at this level and therefore what's going
4363
02:50:04,080 --> 02:50:06,560
to happen after that there is only one
4364
02:50:06,560 --> 02:50:10,000
thing the price will go up as supply
4365
02:50:10,000 --> 02:50:13,760
has been observed at the support level
4366
02:50:13,760 --> 02:50:15,680
those last pieces
4367
02:50:15,680 --> 02:50:20,080
on lost public capitulation into phase c
4368
02:50:20,080 --> 02:50:21,600
that absorption
4369
02:50:21,600 --> 02:50:23,760
leads to the rise
4370
02:50:23,760 --> 02:50:25,840
to the sign of strength
4371
02:50:25,840 --> 02:50:27,600
and then this is where i mean reversion
4372
02:50:27,600 --> 02:50:30,240
traits happen
4373
02:50:30,240 --> 02:50:31,359
so
4374
02:50:31,359 --> 02:50:33,359
it's kind of funny you know at some
4375
02:50:33,359 --> 02:50:35,279
point when you understand you know the
4376
02:50:35,279 --> 02:50:37,439
mechanics of it as to
4377
02:50:37,439 --> 02:50:40,160
what happens next with weekends they
4378
02:50:40,160 --> 02:50:43,120
said never never never will i get into
4379
02:50:43,120 --> 02:50:45,760
this position again into the stock and
4380
02:50:45,760 --> 02:50:47,520
they are missing this whole rally right
4381
02:50:47,520 --> 02:50:50,080
here and once it overcomes and it
4382
02:50:50,080 --> 02:50:53,359
becomes a cnbc item
4383
02:50:53,359 --> 02:50:55,200
and everybody's screaming it's in the
4384
02:50:55,200 --> 02:50:56,880
uptrend
4385
02:50:56,880 --> 02:50:59,200
they're saying i gotta go in
4386
02:50:59,200 --> 02:51:00,720
so they're establishing the position
4387
02:51:00,720 --> 02:51:02,880
right here again and they're saying i
4388
02:51:02,880 --> 02:51:04,560
said that i'm not going to go in into
4389
02:51:04,560 --> 02:51:07,439
this position but this is the time now
4390
02:51:07,439 --> 02:51:09,840
and then the first time the price goes
4391
02:51:09,840 --> 02:51:12,399
down into the backing up action
4392
02:51:12,399 --> 02:51:15,600
they are so already conditioned
4393
02:51:15,600 --> 02:51:16,640
uh
4394
02:51:16,640 --> 02:51:18,960
on all of these reactions and all of
4395
02:51:18,960 --> 02:51:20,080
this
4396
02:51:20,080 --> 02:51:22,000
you know attempts to go up and failure
4397
02:51:22,000 --> 02:51:24,160
attempts to go up on failure
4398
02:51:24,160 --> 02:51:26,960
attempt to go up and then the beginning
4399
02:51:26,960 --> 02:51:29,040
of the failure in their rise what do you
4400
02:51:29,040 --> 02:51:30,560
think they're going to do here
4401
02:51:30,560 --> 02:51:32,880
they're going to sell their positions
4402
02:51:32,880 --> 02:51:34,800
again with the loss
4403
02:51:34,800 --> 02:51:36,720
and they're going to say well now for
4404
02:51:36,720 --> 02:51:37,840
sure
4405
02:51:37,840 --> 02:51:39,359
i'm not going to go in into this
4406
02:51:39,359 --> 02:51:41,439
position i should write just you know a
4407
02:51:41,439 --> 02:51:43,680
book for kids about this you know just
4408
02:51:43,680 --> 02:51:46,000
explain to them and such simplistic
4409
02:51:46,000 --> 02:51:48,240
terms you know how their psychology
4410
02:51:48,240 --> 02:51:50,000
uh you know unfolds
4411
02:51:50,000 --> 02:51:52,640
so they're like uh i'm selling with the
4412
02:51:52,640 --> 02:51:53,600
laws
4413
02:51:53,600 --> 02:51:55,279
and now i'm not gonna go in into this
4414
02:51:55,279 --> 02:51:56,479
position
4415
02:51:56,479 --> 02:51:59,359
and they're missing the whole trip
4416
02:51:59,359 --> 02:52:01,279
so now imagine if this is a distribution
4417
02:52:01,279 --> 02:52:03,439
somewhere here really quickly and then
4418
02:52:03,439 --> 02:52:06,160
we'll stop maybe here
4419
02:52:06,160 --> 02:52:08,240
if this is a distribution
4420
02:52:08,240 --> 02:52:09,040
they
4421
02:52:09,040 --> 02:52:10,960
you know on the way up they're like what
4422
02:52:10,960 --> 02:52:15,479
did i do why did i close this position
4423
02:52:17,200 --> 02:52:19,439
and then as they go into the next
4424
02:52:19,439 --> 02:52:22,240
consolidation which is the distribution
4425
02:52:22,240 --> 02:52:25,359
and they see in a change of character
4426
02:52:25,359 --> 02:52:26,960
so they're seeing what they see in
4427
02:52:26,960 --> 02:52:29,120
reaction
4428
02:52:29,120 --> 02:52:31,279
which creates value
4429
02:52:31,279 --> 02:52:33,600
for them short-term value and i'm
4430
02:52:33,600 --> 02:52:36,000
talking about weak hands
4431
02:52:36,000 --> 02:52:37,760
that this case not just public but
4432
02:52:37,760 --> 02:52:39,760
institutions as well
4433
02:52:39,760 --> 02:52:41,920
so and they are saying like i gotta go
4434
02:52:41,920 --> 02:52:43,520
in and buy
4435
02:52:43,520 --> 02:52:46,000
so they are buying here on the secondary
4436
02:52:46,000 --> 02:52:48,640
test they feel great on the next
4437
02:52:48,640 --> 02:52:50,720
reaction to the downside they are saying
4438
02:52:50,720 --> 02:52:53,439
i made this stupid mistake here at the
4439
02:52:53,439 --> 02:52:55,600
original accumulation to get out of the
4440
02:52:55,600 --> 02:52:58,080
position and every time it was going up
4441
02:52:58,080 --> 02:53:00,479
after i get out so i'm gonna hold on to
4442
02:53:00,479 --> 02:53:01,439
this
4443
02:53:01,439 --> 02:53:02,720
okay well
4444
02:53:02,720 --> 02:53:04,399
holding on
4445
02:53:04,399 --> 02:53:06,640
and what happens in the distribution
4446
02:53:06,640 --> 02:53:08,560
obviously not what happened with apple
4447
02:53:08,560 --> 02:53:10,720
at this time but i'm just giving you an
4448
02:53:10,720 --> 02:53:12,240
example here
4449
02:53:12,240 --> 02:53:13,920
all right so they accumulate they
4450
02:53:13,920 --> 02:53:16,319
accumulate the price goes up into the up
4451
02:53:16,319 --> 02:53:17,359
thrust
4452
02:53:17,359 --> 02:53:19,359
this becomes a second point of
4453
02:53:19,359 --> 02:53:21,920
excitement for them
4454
02:53:21,920 --> 02:53:23,920
the first one was on the buying climax
4455
02:53:23,920 --> 02:53:25,680
this is where they will be you know
4456
02:53:25,680 --> 02:53:28,240
buyers as well
4457
02:53:28,240 --> 02:53:30,080
and they are saying like this time i'm
4458
02:53:30,080 --> 02:53:32,160
just going to hold on to this as the
4459
02:53:32,160 --> 02:53:34,800
price goes down into this excitement
4460
02:53:34,800 --> 02:53:37,439
with them adding to the position
4461
02:53:37,439 --> 02:53:39,680
institutions are going to sell
4462
02:53:39,680 --> 02:53:41,520
sell
4463
02:53:41,520 --> 02:53:44,080
sell on the change of character sell in
4464
02:53:44,080 --> 02:53:45,359
phase b
4465
02:53:45,359 --> 02:53:48,000
sell on the way down and then capitulate
4466
02:53:48,000 --> 02:53:49,840
on the way down and throughout this
4467
02:53:49,840 --> 02:53:52,640
whole formation weak hands are going to
4468
02:53:52,640 --> 02:53:55,200
hold on and they're going to capitulate
4469
02:53:55,200 --> 02:53:58,800
relative to the emotional
4470
02:53:58,800 --> 02:54:00,720
pain that they have that they can
4471
02:54:00,720 --> 02:54:01,920
withstand
4472
02:54:01,920 --> 02:54:03,840
and to the knowledge and skill that they
4473
02:54:03,840 --> 02:54:04,800
have
4474
02:54:04,800 --> 02:54:06,640
so some of them are going to capitulate
4475
02:54:06,640 --> 02:54:08,720
somewhere here and usually this area is
4476
02:54:08,720 --> 02:54:10,479
going to be associated with the largest
4477
02:54:10,479 --> 02:54:12,640
volume signature and some of them are
4478
02:54:12,640 --> 02:54:14,880
going to capitulate maybe somewhere here
4479
02:54:14,880 --> 02:54:17,920
so depending on you know the system for
4480
02:54:17,920 --> 02:54:19,520
institutions and depending on the
4481
02:54:19,520 --> 02:54:21,120
emotional pain
4482
02:54:21,120 --> 02:54:23,600
for the public
4483
02:54:23,600 --> 02:54:25,600
doug is saying been there
4484
02:54:25,600 --> 02:54:26,800
done that
4485
02:54:26,800 --> 02:54:28,640
great description
4486
02:54:28,640 --> 02:54:31,600
yes we all have done that
4487
02:54:31,600 --> 02:54:34,319
we all have experienced that pain this
4488
02:54:34,319 --> 02:54:36,560
is the reason why you are in this class
4489
02:54:36,560 --> 02:54:38,399
or you know going through your emails
4490
02:54:38,399 --> 02:54:40,960
reading those you know in reading
4491
02:54:40,960 --> 02:54:43,040
who you are as traders right now and who
4492
02:54:43,040 --> 02:54:44,560
you've been as traders and your
4493
02:54:44,560 --> 02:54:45,920
inspirations
4494
02:54:45,920 --> 02:54:48,319
you know the majority of students in
4495
02:54:48,319 --> 02:54:50,479
this class
4496
02:54:50,479 --> 02:54:53,680
are here for the right reason
4497
02:54:53,680 --> 02:54:56,960
you guys are trying to figure out
4498
02:54:56,960 --> 02:54:59,680
how to make money in the market
4499
02:54:59,680 --> 02:55:02,240
by having the knowledge developing the
4500
02:55:02,240 --> 02:55:04,880
skill developing the system and being
4501
02:55:04,880 --> 02:55:08,560
able to control your own behaviors in a
4502
02:55:08,560 --> 02:55:10,960
different way than how you've done
4503
02:55:10,960 --> 02:55:13,600
before or what you're doing right now
4504
02:55:13,600 --> 02:55:16,080
and i'm just showing you how you could
4505
02:55:16,080 --> 02:55:19,279
interpret the chart in such way
4506
02:55:19,279 --> 02:55:21,279
that would be systematic
4507
02:55:21,279 --> 02:55:22,720
logical
4508
02:55:22,720 --> 02:55:25,600
and that would elevate your emotional
4509
02:55:25,600 --> 02:55:27,760
pain because you will know
4510
02:55:27,760 --> 02:55:29,920
at which point you need to act you will
4511
02:55:29,920 --> 02:55:31,680
know at which points you need to get in
4512
02:55:31,680 --> 02:55:35,279
to get out to add to scale out
4513
02:55:35,279 --> 02:55:37,520
it's just going to take some time
4514
02:55:37,520 --> 02:55:39,279
but it's going to be
4515
02:55:39,279 --> 02:55:40,479
valuable
4516
02:55:40,479 --> 02:55:42,240
and that's kind of like the message to
4517
02:55:42,240 --> 02:55:44,399
all of your emails that i've seen today
4518
02:55:44,399 --> 02:55:46,000
from you guys
4519
02:55:46,000 --> 02:55:48,240
all right i think this is a good point
4520
02:55:48,240 --> 02:55:50,560
for us to stop
4521
02:55:50,560 --> 02:55:53,040
right so it's almost six
4522
02:55:53,040 --> 02:55:55,120
and uh
4523
02:55:55,120 --> 02:55:56,840
let's go through the
4524
02:55:56,840 --> 02:55:59,359
homework i'm still gonna give you the
4525
02:55:59,359 --> 02:56:03,359
homework so let me just do this
4526
02:56:03,359 --> 02:56:06,720
okay you should not be able to see
4527
02:56:06,720 --> 02:56:09,279
anything
4528
02:56:10,840 --> 02:56:12,560
and uh
4529
02:56:12,560 --> 02:56:13,600
okay
4530
02:56:13,600 --> 02:56:15,200
now you should be able to see the
4531
02:56:15,200 --> 02:56:18,000
homework slide
4532
02:56:18,080 --> 02:56:21,279
okay so what do we do next uh well first
4533
02:56:21,279 --> 02:56:24,880
of all i would like you to continue with
4534
02:56:24,880 --> 02:56:25,760
um
4535
02:56:25,760 --> 02:56:28,080
you know if you have a lot of time and
4536
02:56:28,080 --> 02:56:29,120
there are
4537
02:56:29,120 --> 02:56:32,399
some of you who told me i'm here to gain
4538
02:56:32,399 --> 02:56:34,800
as much knowledge from you as possible
4539
02:56:34,800 --> 02:56:36,800
i'm gonna do anything
4540
02:56:36,800 --> 02:56:38,800
you know to gain that skill
4541
02:56:38,800 --> 02:56:42,240
um i'm passionate about this i have time
4542
02:56:42,240 --> 02:56:44,880
for this so for those of you who are
4543
02:56:44,880 --> 02:56:48,800
like that so your task is
4544
02:56:48,800 --> 02:56:50,960
so i'm going to put this as an optional
4545
02:56:50,960 --> 02:56:53,960
task
4546
02:56:57,920 --> 02:57:02,960
your task is to watch this session again
4547
02:57:04,479 --> 02:57:08,720
your second task make notes
4548
02:57:08,720 --> 02:57:11,439
send those to me
4549
02:57:13,680 --> 02:57:16,640
your third task
4550
02:57:17,760 --> 02:57:19,279
is going to be
4551
02:57:19,279 --> 02:57:20,560
go through
4552
02:57:20,560 --> 02:57:21,840
um
4553
02:57:21,840 --> 02:57:24,640
homework again
4554
02:57:24,960 --> 02:57:27,200
the one that we've covered
4555
02:57:27,200 --> 02:57:30,960
and kind of go through your chart
4556
02:57:31,279 --> 02:57:34,640
and then my labeling
4557
02:57:34,640 --> 02:57:38,000
and compare and ask yourself one
4558
02:57:38,000 --> 02:57:39,439
question
4559
02:57:39,439 --> 02:57:41,120
why
4560
02:57:41,120 --> 02:57:44,720
why did he label it like this
4561
02:57:44,720 --> 02:57:47,200
so this type of questioning will bring
4562
02:57:47,200 --> 02:57:48,960
more questions
4563
02:57:48,960 --> 02:57:52,800
and that we could answer later on
4564
02:57:52,800 --> 02:57:56,080
but what it does is it makes you think
4565
02:57:56,080 --> 02:57:58,240
one of the things that i'm also noticing
4566
02:57:58,240 --> 02:58:00,560
and i'm not saying this about this group
4567
02:58:00,560 --> 02:58:02,800
in particular or anybody in particular
4568
02:58:02,800 --> 02:58:03,680
but
4569
02:58:03,680 --> 02:58:07,040
we as people tend to lack thinking
4570
02:58:07,040 --> 02:58:09,200
you know we kind of sometimes
4571
02:58:09,200 --> 02:58:11,200
think that we know everything
4572
02:58:11,200 --> 02:58:12,880
that's not the case i mean like i've
4573
02:58:12,880 --> 02:58:14,479
been teaching this material for quite
4574
02:58:14,479 --> 02:58:17,040
some time you know and even some people
4575
02:58:17,040 --> 02:58:19,359
that say yeah i've taken class and from
4576
02:58:19,359 --> 02:58:21,520
this and this i've read these books i've
4577
02:58:21,520 --> 02:58:22,880
read these articles i know the
4578
02:58:22,880 --> 02:58:26,000
methodology they come to this class and
4579
02:58:26,000 --> 02:58:27,279
they feel
4580
02:58:27,279 --> 02:58:28,800
how much
4581
02:58:28,800 --> 02:58:30,560
they don't know
4582
02:58:30,560 --> 02:58:33,920
and that's just because the market is
4583
02:58:33,920 --> 02:58:35,200
much more
4584
02:58:35,200 --> 02:58:37,600
than anything that we've started you
4585
02:58:37,600 --> 02:58:40,240
know in our lifetime you know it's just
4586
02:58:40,240 --> 02:58:42,319
such a complex pattern it's such a
4587
02:58:42,319 --> 02:58:45,359
complex you know algorithm and system
4588
02:58:45,359 --> 02:58:48,479
that we're playing with so um
4589
02:58:48,479 --> 02:58:51,040
you you have to always
4590
02:58:51,040 --> 02:58:51,920
be
4591
02:58:51,920 --> 02:58:54,720
you know educating yourself and the past
4592
02:58:54,720 --> 02:58:56,720
education i think you know going through
4593
02:58:56,720 --> 02:58:58,880
this course is always
4594
02:58:58,880 --> 02:59:01,040
asking the question of why
4595
02:59:01,040 --> 02:59:03,600
why is this happening
4596
02:59:03,600 --> 02:59:05,120
so that's an extremely important
4597
02:59:05,120 --> 02:59:07,120
question so this is for those of you who
4598
02:59:07,120 --> 02:59:09,279
have time
4599
02:59:09,279 --> 02:59:14,560
and who want you know uh more of the
4600
02:59:14,560 --> 02:59:16,160
more assignments
4601
02:59:16,160 --> 02:59:20,080
right but then for everyone else a very
4602
02:59:20,080 --> 02:59:21,760
regular assignment is just going to be
4603
02:59:21,760 --> 02:59:23,920
this the same assignment that we've done
4604
02:59:23,920 --> 02:59:26,800
with home depot but on the distribution
4605
02:59:26,800 --> 02:59:28,800
so i'm going to give you the slides with
4606
02:59:28,800 --> 02:59:30,479
the distributional patterns you know
4607
02:59:30,479 --> 02:59:32,560
that this is a distribution and then you
4608
02:59:32,560 --> 02:59:34,240
just have to label those
4609
02:59:34,240 --> 02:59:35,920
now i'm also going to give you some
4610
02:59:35,920 --> 02:59:38,319
slides on the distribution and like of
4611
02:59:38,319 --> 02:59:40,160
phases and the events and the changes of
4612
02:59:40,160 --> 02:59:42,399
character in the distribution pattern
4613
02:59:42,399 --> 02:59:44,640
itself so you will have to kind of like
4614
02:59:44,640 --> 02:59:46,880
go through those slides read those read
4615
02:59:46,880 --> 02:59:49,520
characteristics and so on so forth
4616
02:59:49,520 --> 02:59:51,600
but that's the only homework that i want
4617
02:59:51,600 --> 02:59:54,319
you to do watching the recording again
4618
02:59:54,319 --> 02:59:57,040
is optional i totally understand when
4619
02:59:57,040 --> 02:59:59,200
somebody emails me and says
4620
02:59:59,200 --> 03:00:01,520
well i've got a nine to five job it's
4621
03:00:01,520 --> 03:00:04,319
very demanding and then i have a family
4622
03:00:04,319 --> 03:00:05,520
guys
4623
03:00:05,520 --> 03:00:08,800
i totally hear you and
4624
03:00:08,800 --> 03:00:10,240
to those of you who are in this
4625
03:00:10,240 --> 03:00:13,520
situation go at your own pace
4626
03:00:13,520 --> 03:00:16,080
you know you don't have to put so much
4627
03:00:16,080 --> 03:00:18,240
pressure on yourself right away
4628
03:00:18,240 --> 03:00:20,560
but just listen to the recordings that
4629
03:00:20,560 --> 03:00:22,560
could be one thing to do then if you
4630
03:00:22,560 --> 03:00:26,080
have time do the homework send it to me
4631
03:00:26,080 --> 03:00:28,399
then if you have more time
4632
03:00:28,399 --> 03:00:30,160
well then rewatch the recording but if
4633
03:00:30,160 --> 03:00:31,680
you can't rewatch the recording don't
4634
03:00:31,680 --> 03:00:33,040
worry
4635
03:00:33,040 --> 03:00:35,680
just go through the course this one time
4636
03:00:35,680 --> 03:00:37,359
you will have the recordings after the
4637
03:00:37,359 --> 03:00:38,479
the course
4638
03:00:38,479 --> 03:00:40,160
go through the course again
4639
03:00:40,160 --> 03:00:41,439
by yourself
4640
03:00:41,439 --> 03:00:43,439
or you can sign up for the course again
4641
03:00:43,439 --> 03:00:45,200
at the alumni rate
4642
03:00:45,200 --> 03:00:46,720
and then go through the live sessions
4643
03:00:46,720 --> 03:00:49,200
again with me a lot of people actually a
4644
03:00:49,200 --> 03:00:52,399
lot of alumni in this class right now
4645
03:00:52,399 --> 03:00:55,040
just because again so much material
4646
03:00:55,040 --> 03:00:57,760
three hours today and i gave you so much
4647
03:00:57,760 --> 03:00:59,840
i probably have given you over 100
4648
03:00:59,840 --> 03:01:02,640
concept concepts you know those small
4649
03:01:02,640 --> 03:01:04,479
details that you have to go through so
4650
03:01:04,479 --> 03:01:06,640
it just takes time so it's all
4651
03:01:06,640 --> 03:01:07,920
understandable so let's look at the
4652
03:01:07,920 --> 03:01:10,560
slides for this homework
4653
03:01:10,560 --> 03:01:11,920
here's one
4654
03:01:11,920 --> 03:01:14,640
callaway golf
4655
03:01:14,640 --> 03:01:16,960
netflix
4656
03:01:16,960 --> 03:01:19,359
apple
4657
03:01:19,359 --> 03:01:21,520
nasdaq
4658
03:01:21,520 --> 03:01:24,080
uh alexian pharmaceutical
4659
03:01:24,080 --> 03:01:25,279
and yahoo
4660
03:01:25,279 --> 03:01:27,520
so yahoo is going to be your
4661
03:01:27,520 --> 03:01:31,040
uh probably alexian pharmaceutical and
4662
03:01:31,040 --> 03:01:33,359
yahoo are gonna be the two hardest
4663
03:01:33,359 --> 03:01:36,000
charts everything else should be
4664
03:01:36,000 --> 03:01:38,880
quite easy if you follow the schematics
4665
03:01:38,880 --> 03:01:40,560
and then i'm gonna give you
4666
03:01:40,560 --> 03:01:42,240
this material but we will go through
4667
03:01:42,240 --> 03:01:44,080
this material hopefully next time but
4668
03:01:44,080 --> 03:01:45,760
this is something that you should be
4669
03:01:45,760 --> 03:01:48,800
studying before you do the homework so
4670
03:01:48,800 --> 03:01:51,680
um the like of events the phases
4671
03:01:51,680 --> 03:01:53,520
characteristics of those events
4672
03:01:53,520 --> 03:01:55,760
something again that i want you to go
4673
03:01:55,760 --> 03:01:58,080
through to remember
4674
03:01:58,080 --> 03:02:00,560
and different you know
4675
03:02:00,560 --> 03:02:02,720
schematics on how distribution could
4676
03:02:02,720 --> 03:02:05,359
unfold again this is something that we
4677
03:02:05,359 --> 03:02:09,680
will be covering in the next class
4678
03:02:09,760 --> 03:02:12,800
all right guys well that's it for today
4679
03:02:12,800 --> 03:02:15,120
good session i would be expecting that
4680
03:02:15,120 --> 03:02:16,880
the next session is going to be as
4681
03:02:16,880 --> 03:02:19,040
intense as this one
4682
03:02:19,040 --> 03:02:21,439
so bill please be prepared that we're
4683
03:02:21,439 --> 03:02:23,439
going to go to the third hour
4684
03:02:23,439 --> 03:02:25,840
uh to the end of the third hour and
4685
03:02:25,840 --> 03:02:27,840
we're going to finish first the homework
4686
03:02:27,840 --> 03:02:30,080
on home depot it's still very crucial
4687
03:02:30,080 --> 03:02:33,040
for us to go through that and then
4688
03:02:33,040 --> 03:02:35,040
hopefully next class but if not then the
4689
03:02:35,040 --> 03:02:36,720
class after that we're going to go
4690
03:02:36,720 --> 03:02:39,920
through the homework on the distribution
4691
03:02:39,920 --> 03:02:42,160
and after that once we conclude our
4692
03:02:42,160 --> 03:02:43,760
structural analysis that's when we're
4693
03:02:43,760 --> 03:02:46,640
gonna switch to supply and demand
4694
03:02:46,640 --> 03:02:48,640
all right i'm gonna be expecting your
4695
03:02:48,640 --> 03:02:52,080
emails with your homeworks um good job
4696
03:02:52,080 --> 03:02:54,880
everybody you know with the homework i
4697
03:02:54,880 --> 03:02:57,359
really liked it good job today with all
4698
03:02:57,359 --> 03:02:59,120
of the volunteers and
4699
03:02:59,120 --> 03:03:01,680
uh you guys have been writing a lot so i
4700
03:03:01,680 --> 03:03:03,200
see a lot of comments
4701
03:03:03,200 --> 03:03:05,359
so this is great this is exactly the way
4702
03:03:05,359 --> 03:03:07,920
how i want to conduct this class this is
4703
03:03:07,920 --> 03:03:10,399
exactly the type of interactivity that i
4704
03:03:10,399 --> 03:03:13,359
want to have with you with that
4705
03:03:13,359 --> 03:03:15,520
happy trading for this week i'll see you
4706
03:03:15,520 --> 03:03:20,520
next monday thank you guys and bye
306252
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