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Russian propaganda resources, "experts" and other
talking heads, are now convincing their faithful
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or casual consumers of information fast food that
the "offensive" of the Ukrainian defense forces
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is taking place in an area that is outside
the main defense line of the Russian army.
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And this is true. But there is a nuance.
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That zone where the Ukrainians are now conducting
combat reconnaissance is an operational zone.
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It is designed to slow down the advance
of the main enemy forces and, if possible,
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to stop them completely. It is
there where the main mine and
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landmine obstacles and ambush of
the Russian side are concentrated.
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So Russian propagandists tell the truth - this is
not the main line of defense. But the Ukrainians
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have not even started the offensive yet either,
and are conducting quite different activities.
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In turn, what happens to the enemy forces ?
And the occupation forces that were in reserve,
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mainly on the 2nd and 3rd lines, are
already being drawn down to the supply line!
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In particular, to stop the
Ukrainians from advancing
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down the Mokri Yaly river to Staromlynivka,
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the Russian command sent the 127th Motor Rifle
Division from the "comfortable" trenches.
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The 58th Combined Arms Army also did not feel
very comfortable in the Zaporizhzhia expanses,
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and urgently needed an additional resource
in the form of the 49th Combined Arms Army.
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From the Kherson region began to pull forces
into the triangle Tokmak-Vasylivka-Melitopol,
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to strengthen the third line.
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Why is this happening? Were the reserves
thrown to reinforce the 2nd line or all
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gone lying bone in the support line? What about
the left bank then? After the dam explosion,
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the large body of water is already receding...
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I have been saying for quite a long time that
the Russian troops in the whole combat zone
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have the most problematic grouping in Kherson
and Zaporizhzhia regions. In detail, from month
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to month, I pointed to their main vulnerabilities,
namely - the lack of full staff equipment units.
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And also the absence of the possibility
of filling all the lines of defense with
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a proportionally sufficient number of defenders.
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That is, not only are they critically short
of equipment, for the number of men they have,
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but also critically short of men to fill
the lines of defense completely with them.
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And now we are seeing in all its glory
the manifestation of all these facts.
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While the Ukrainian defense forces
have not yet started anything in
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earnest and are using units of limited
functionality, the Russian forces are
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already being forced to put their reserves
into action from the 2nd and 3rd lines!
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Of course, Russian propagandists will not tell
their consumers of informational fast food this.
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They will tell that as a result of
the "failed" offensive the Ukrainian
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army lost more than 50% of its personnel, all
Leopard 2 tanks were destroyed, Kyiv panics,
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Biden has dementia, Scholz and Macron
are already calling Putin in hysterics,
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and the Chinese and Bulgarians as usual
admired the actions of the Russian army...
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Well, let them tell it. But taking into
account the movements going on in the deep
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and not so deep in the rear of the temporarily
occupied territories of southern Ukraine,
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we can conclude that in fact the
Russian army is not doing very well.
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I would use the term "pre-stroke state," but some
people take me somewhat literally, not always
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understanding the allegories, so I will leave the
option "the Russian army is not doing very well.
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We are on the verge of great events
and while Ukraine's defense forces are
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operating at the level of reconnaissance
troops, the enemy is feverishly pulling
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in the remnants of Marines who have never
seen the sea and Arctic assault aircraft,
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which will not be fated to be
the dinner of polar bears...
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