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Will the Russian occupants blow up
the Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant
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when they flee from the left bank to the Crimea?
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Such a question was asked by different
people in different publications.
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I will give you some figures to understand
the expediency of such an action,
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as well as bring understanding to any other
nuclear scaremongering on the part of Russia.
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But before explaining about the Nuclear Power
Plant, it is necessary to understand what forces
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and means the occupants have deployed in the south
of Ukraine. On the left bank of the Kherson region
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and in the occupied part of Zaporizhzhia
region they have concentrated up to 150
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thousand personnel. At the same time, this number
of forces is still insufficient to hold territory.
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The worst situation the enemy has with holding
territory in the defense is in the Kherson region.
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There they have a shortage of forces along
the front line, as well as a lack of means
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according to the staffing. But most importantly,
the situation in the temporarily occupied Crimea
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is even worse. No more than 25 combat-ready
Battalion tactical groups are stationed there.
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Therefore, in case of activation of some actions
in the south, the main part of this 150,000-strong
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mass will rush to the Crimea in panic,
thus saturating it with resources.
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In particular, why I am so sure that the
occupants will flee from the South and
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will not be able to hold the defense, because
they have trenches there and a lot of people.
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In the current state, the occupants' Battalion
tactical groups on the left bank of the Kherson
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region and in the Zaporizhzhya region are able to
hold an average of 1 km of front each in defense.
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Thus the occupants need 256
Battalion tactical groups or 155
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thousand personnel to hold
Kherson bridgehead in defense.
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In turn in Zaporizhzhya region they must
concentrate 200 Battalion tactical groups
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or 120 thousand people to hold in the defense.
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Therefore we conclude that
the adversary requires 275,000
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manpower to hold the south in defense, with
the actual number of 150,000, which is almost
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twofold less. Not to mention the incomplete
equipment of these Battalion tactical groups.
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The enemy has a critical resource shortage.
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At the same time, part of the available resource
in the south "serves" the Donetsk region and the
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potential of this group should be
considered even lower than voiced.
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In fact, all of the above raises the question...
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Trenches have been dug, defensive lines
erected, but who will hold this defense?
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Especially when the first line of defense
is broken through, and the rest will follow?
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And they will all run to the Crimea, where the
next phase will begin, but about that later.
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So, let's imagine they blow up the Nuclear
Power Plant, what then? Then the Russian
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side loses 150,000 conditionally combat-ready
units in an extremely short period of time.
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They will simply not be able to hold the
south, let alone hold Crimea. At the same time,
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a nuclear terrorist act will be committed, which
is unprecedented in history, which, in turn,
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will activate the international military
machine to subdue the nuclear terrorist.
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Such a terrorist attack could well activate NATO's
Article 5 of collective security. In its turn,
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Russia will not have the resources to
repulse NATO's counter-terrorist operation.
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Therefore, the fleeing occupiers will not carry
out any subversion of Nuclear Power Plant.
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The Russian command still wants to
postpone the moment of total defeat,
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hopefully twitching in convulsions for
six months to a year defending Crimea.
5363
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