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British military analyst and retired
British Air Vice Marshal Sean Bell gave
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his assessment of the upcoming counterattack
by the Ukrainian armed forces. In his opinion,
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the Ukrainian offensive will be staggered and
the preparations for it are almost complete.
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He also voiced what we have been discussing for
months, namely strikes on the enemy's logistics:
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"Ukraine's first step will be a strike on Russia's
logistics, with a high probability the main focus
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of AFU strikes will be concentrated on the land
corridor between Crimea and mainland Ukraine.
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It is important to deprive enemy troops of
a significant portion of logistical support,
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so Russian supply routes and nodes like
fuel depots will be destroyed first."
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A few days ago, an oil depot in Sevastopol
in temporarily occupied Crimea was hit by a
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drone strike and burned badly. Ukraine's Main
Intelligence Directorate said the explosions
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and fire destroyed 10 tanks that could
have contained up to 40,000 tons of fuel
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for the Russian Black Sea Fleet. The Russian
side claims that only four tanks with spent
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oil were destroyed and in general, they did
not know what to do with it for a long time.
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The Russian media insist that it was
a Chinese commercial drone Mugin-5
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that made it down.Assuming that
it was indeed a Chinese Mugin-5,
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such drones should be used by swarms, for
the purpose of spam enemy air defense.
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It seems that the Ukrainians launched a dozen
drones simultaneously to attack the oil depot:
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some of them the Russian air defense managed to
shoot down, but several reached their targets.
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There used to be a significant stockpile
of Russian equipment in Crimea, but it has
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recently been redeployed, and the bases
are now empty. The Russians are seriously
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fortifying the Zaporizhia nuclear complex, as if
preparing to fight for it. "East of Zaporizhzhya,
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the Russians have 1,120 kilometers of
trenches: some of them can be seen from space,
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you can see these 'dragon teeth' that have not
been used since World War II...," Bell notes.
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The analyst suggests that the most likely
direction for the beginning of the AFU
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offensive is the Donetsk region. Fierce fighting
has already taken place there in the past,
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and it will be difficult to regain this area
in the short term. The defense of Crimea is
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also sufficiently fortified, which makes its
return to Ukraine a difficult task for the AFU.
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He also believes that the main thrust
of Ukrainian forces may be directed
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at the land corridor between Russia and Crimea.
Russia currently controls about 87% of Bakhmut,
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but there is evidence that Russian forces are
very nervous about a possible Ukrainian offensive.
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Moreover, Russia has already lost more
than 50% of the territory it captured.
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"There has been no noticeable news
from the battlefields in recent days.
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But this is definitely the calm before
the storm," the analyst concluded.
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You may remember that my opinion regarding
the start of the counteroffensive is quite
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the opposite, and I consider the
Donetsk direction the most difficult,
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in consequence of the shorter logistical arm
of the enemy's supply. No matter who turns
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out to be right, the Ukrainians may surprise us
with completely unexpected tactics, so we wait.
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