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These are the user uploaded subtitles that are being translated: 1 00:00:06,266 --> 00:00:07,543 This show is fictitious. 2 00:00:07,567 --> 00:00:09,542 There is not actually an asteroid 3 00:00:09,567 --> 00:00:11,300 headed to New York City today, 4 00:00:11,367 --> 00:00:15,467 but this is based on simulations of such an event. 5 00:00:15,567 --> 00:00:18,600 We run simulations of fictional asteroid strike 6 00:00:18,667 --> 00:00:21,600 to prepare for the worst-case scenario. 7 00:00:22,766 --> 00:00:26,265 November 4, 2029. 8 00:00:26,367 --> 00:00:29,100 We face a countdown to catastrophe. 9 00:00:30,567 --> 00:00:33,265 A giant asteroid hurtles towards Earth. 10 00:00:35,567 --> 00:00:36,667 It's heading straight for 11 00:00:36,767 --> 00:00:39,500 the eastern seaboard of the United States. 12 00:00:43,600 --> 00:00:47,942 The space rock could wipe out an entire city 13 00:00:47,966 --> 00:00:50,265 and cause widespread devastation. 14 00:00:53,500 --> 00:00:57,066 Can Earth survive? 15 00:01:12,165 --> 00:01:16,299 New York City, November 4, 2029. 16 00:01:19,165 --> 00:01:23,799 The deserted metropolis waited for the asteroid to strike. 17 00:01:25,066 --> 00:01:27,599 A giant space rock entered the atmosphere, 18 00:01:27,667 --> 00:01:29,975 heading straight for the eastern seaboard of the USA. 19 00:01:30,000 --> 00:01:32,079 Heading straight for the eastern seaboard of the USA. 20 00:01:32,667 --> 00:01:34,466 As it comes through the atmosphere, 21 00:01:34,567 --> 00:01:37,643 we would see something as bright as the sun getting 22 00:01:37,667 --> 00:01:39,866 brighter and brighter and brighter. 23 00:01:41,165 --> 00:01:44,343 At speeds of maybe 20 kilometers per second or so. 24 00:01:44,366 --> 00:01:46,799 That's something like 18 times faster than 25 00:01:46,866 --> 00:01:50,466 the speed of a bullet coming out of a rifle. 26 00:01:50,567 --> 00:01:53,099 This asteroid was headed towards 27 00:01:53,165 --> 00:01:56,241 the most populous city in America, 28 00:01:56,265 --> 00:01:58,766 and when it impacts, it would deliver 29 00:01:58,866 --> 00:01:59,975 more energy than 1,000 Hiroshima nuclear bombs. 30 00:02:00,000 --> 00:02:03,900 More energy than 1,000 Hiroshima nuclear bombs. 31 00:02:14,567 --> 00:02:17,141 It would level some of the most expensive real estate 32 00:02:17,165 --> 00:02:19,000 in the world in seconds. 33 00:02:27,667 --> 00:02:29,975 There would be a crater where Central Park used to be. 34 00:02:30,000 --> 00:02:32,120 There would be a crater where Central Park used to be. 35 00:02:33,667 --> 00:02:36,800 I actually don't even like thinking about this, 36 00:02:37,866 --> 00:02:41,265 of how horrible it would be. 37 00:02:41,366 --> 00:02:44,000 This is beyond the worst disaster 38 00:02:44,099 --> 00:02:45,699 the world has... Would have ever faced. 39 00:02:45,766 --> 00:02:47,866 There's nothing in our history that would have 40 00:02:47,966 --> 00:02:52,466 done this much damage so quickly and so devastatingly. 41 00:03:01,667 --> 00:03:03,443 The story of the asteroid 42 00:03:03,467 --> 00:03:05,742 and the Earth's fight back 43 00:03:05,766 --> 00:03:08,500 started seven years ago, here in Arizona. 44 00:03:14,467 --> 00:03:16,699 September 2022, 45 00:03:19,000 --> 00:03:21,900 the Catalina Sky Survey. 46 00:03:22,000 --> 00:03:24,699 Guardian of heavens Greg Leonard drives 47 00:03:24,766 --> 00:03:28,099 to Mount Lemmon Observatory near Tucson. 48 00:03:28,165 --> 00:03:29,975 He's on the hunt for asteroids and comets. 49 00:03:30,000 --> 00:03:31,639 He's on the hunt for asteroids and comets. 50 00:03:32,766 --> 00:03:36,699 We are the watchers of the skies for the planet. 51 00:03:36,766 --> 00:03:41,000 We literally represent the first line of defense 52 00:03:41,066 --> 00:03:44,165 against potentially incoming asteroids, 53 00:03:44,265 --> 00:03:48,099 and I want to emphasize the words planetary defense. 54 00:03:48,165 --> 00:03:51,000 This is not in the benefit for one nation. 55 00:03:51,066 --> 00:03:53,866 This is for the entire planet. 56 00:03:53,966 --> 00:03:56,366 Greg takes a series of images 57 00:03:56,466 --> 00:03:59,866 over a 20-minute period. 58 00:03:59,966 --> 00:03:59,977 Stars don't move in the photos, 59 00:04:00,001 --> 00:04:02,567 Stars don't move in the photos, 60 00:04:03,567 --> 00:04:06,066 but asteroids and comets do. 61 00:04:08,165 --> 00:04:10,500 A-ha. 62 00:04:10,567 --> 00:04:12,643 We can see four points of light 63 00:04:12,667 --> 00:04:16,343 tracking across the background of the stationary stars. 64 00:04:16,367 --> 00:04:21,643 This one is moving very quickly across the sky. 65 00:04:21,667 --> 00:04:22,699 So this tells me 66 00:04:22,766 --> 00:04:26,766 this is a real near-Earth asteroid candidate. 67 00:04:29,667 --> 00:04:29,976 It's one of over 27,000 near-Earth asteroids, 68 00:04:30,000 --> 00:04:33,141 It's one of over 27,000 near-Earth asteroids, 69 00:04:33,165 --> 00:04:37,000 or NEAs for short, discovered by the early 2020s. 70 00:04:40,766 --> 00:04:44,100 The huge gravity of Jupiter can rip space rocks 71 00:04:44,165 --> 00:04:47,066 from their home in the asteroid belt. 72 00:04:48,766 --> 00:04:51,766 Some race outwards, away from the sun. 73 00:04:53,600 --> 00:04:58,367 NEAs head inwards, occasionally towards Earth. 74 00:05:00,100 --> 00:05:03,800 We didn't know it back in September of 2022, 75 00:05:03,867 --> 00:05:06,343 but these were our first images 76 00:05:06,367 --> 00:05:08,867 of a deadly incoming asteroid. 77 00:05:10,466 --> 00:05:14,141 It's relatively close to Earth's neighborhood. 78 00:05:14,165 --> 00:05:16,699 We don't know exactly how far it is yet, 79 00:05:16,766 --> 00:05:20,242 but it's close enough where its motion across the sky 80 00:05:20,266 --> 00:05:21,500 appears rapid. 81 00:05:24,367 --> 00:05:26,942 The discovery of an NEA set a series 82 00:05:26,966 --> 00:05:29,667 of planet protection protocols in motion. 83 00:05:32,165 --> 00:05:35,141 Step one, enlist a global team of experts 84 00:05:35,165 --> 00:05:37,300 to investigate the asteroid's orbit. 85 00:05:41,667 --> 00:05:43,343 We have some of the brightest minds, 86 00:05:43,367 --> 00:05:44,567 some of the best telescopes, 87 00:05:44,667 --> 00:05:46,165 some of the biggest supercomputers 88 00:05:46,266 --> 00:05:48,000 working to protect Earth, 89 00:05:48,066 --> 00:05:50,141 collaborating across language barriers, 90 00:05:50,165 --> 00:05:53,165 across international borders to protect humanity. 91 00:05:54,966 --> 00:05:57,442 This international planetary defense team 92 00:05:57,466 --> 00:05:59,975 was tasked with discovering if the distant object 93 00:06:00,000 --> 00:06:01,742 was tasked with discovering if the distant object 94 00:06:01,766 --> 00:06:04,367 would become a serious threat to Earth. 95 00:06:07,399 --> 00:06:08,643 Their first job... 96 00:06:08,666 --> 00:06:13,000 Determine if the NEA's orbit would intersect with our own. 97 00:06:14,666 --> 00:06:16,843 Orbits are a little like roads, right? 98 00:06:16,867 --> 00:06:18,867 You've got a path that something follows, 99 00:06:18,966 --> 00:06:21,165 and they can intersect, you can have a crossroads. 100 00:06:21,266 --> 00:06:23,543 Now, typically, if only one object is there, 101 00:06:23,567 --> 00:06:24,843 that's not a big deal, 102 00:06:24,867 --> 00:06:26,742 but if you have two objects approaching that intersection 103 00:06:26,766 --> 00:06:28,766 at the same time, they could collide, 104 00:06:28,867 --> 00:06:29,975 and that's the danger from asteroids. 105 00:06:30,000 --> 00:06:31,439 And that's the danger from asteroids. 106 00:06:34,100 --> 00:06:35,266 The team of scientists 107 00:06:35,367 --> 00:06:37,500 track the asteroid for four months. 108 00:06:39,567 --> 00:06:43,300 Over time, you can build up observations. 109 00:06:43,367 --> 00:06:48,000 You can gradually narrow down the possible number of orbits, 110 00:06:48,066 --> 00:06:53,242 then determine whether there's any chance of a future impact, 111 00:06:53,266 --> 00:06:55,667 but if the asteroid is orbiting the sun, 112 00:06:55,766 --> 00:06:58,742 the Earth is orbiting the sun, and there's this dance going on. 113 00:06:58,766 --> 00:06:59,975 Sometimes the asteroid is near the Earth, 114 00:07:00,000 --> 00:07:01,343 Sometimes the asteroid is near the Earth, 115 00:07:01,367 --> 00:07:03,343 and we can observe it, it's bright. 116 00:07:03,367 --> 00:07:05,266 Other times the asteroid is 117 00:07:05,367 --> 00:07:06,442 on the other side of the sun. 118 00:07:06,466 --> 00:07:07,666 We can't observe it at all. 119 00:07:09,800 --> 00:07:10,899 We were lucky. 120 00:07:11,000 --> 00:07:14,766 The asteroid was visible throughout the fall of 2022. 121 00:07:16,600 --> 00:07:20,300 However, our observations of the space rock's orbit 122 00:07:20,367 --> 00:07:23,100 showed a very real possibility 123 00:07:23,165 --> 00:07:26,399 that it would slam into Earth in just seven years. 124 00:07:32,266 --> 00:07:34,466 Astronomers gave the incoming asteroid 125 00:07:34,567 --> 00:07:37,800 a suitably appropriate name, Apep. 126 00:07:40,000 --> 00:07:43,399 Apep was the Egyptian god of chaos, 127 00:07:43,466 --> 00:07:46,141 so that's a fairly good name for an asteroid 128 00:07:46,165 --> 00:07:47,442 that could hit the Earth 129 00:07:47,466 --> 00:07:49,766 because that's exactly what would happen. 130 00:07:49,867 --> 00:07:52,367 You'd have chaos, destruction, and death. 131 00:08:01,300 --> 00:08:06,242 A catalog of devastation to be unleashed on Earth. 132 00:08:06,266 --> 00:08:09,199 But just how bad would the impact be? 133 00:08:27,000 --> 00:08:29,500 January 2023. 134 00:08:29,567 --> 00:08:32,866 Asteroid Apep was on a collision course with Earth. 135 00:08:34,767 --> 00:08:37,500 Step two in our planetary defense... 136 00:08:37,567 --> 00:08:41,500 Know your enemy and build up a picture of the asteroid. 137 00:08:42,899 --> 00:08:43,101 Apep was 1,800 feet wide, 138 00:08:43,125 --> 00:08:45,100 Apep was 1,800 feet wide, 139 00:08:45,165 --> 00:08:47,500 five times the length of a football field. 140 00:08:48,567 --> 00:08:52,767 Its huge size bumps it up into a new category of asteroids. 141 00:08:54,165 --> 00:08:56,042 Apep was what we refer to as 142 00:08:56,066 --> 00:08:58,899 a PHA, a potentially hazardous asteroid. 143 00:09:01,600 --> 00:09:02,767 We're talking about something 144 00:09:02,866 --> 00:09:04,600 that is a third of a mile across. 145 00:09:04,667 --> 00:09:06,066 This is enormous. 146 00:09:08,799 --> 00:09:13,100 An 1,800-foot-wide asteroid is about 112 million metric tons. 147 00:09:13,125 --> 00:09:13,744 An 1,800-foot-wide asteroid is about 112 million metric tons. 148 00:09:13,768 --> 00:09:17,866 That's over 300 times the weight of the Empire State Building. 149 00:09:21,166 --> 00:09:23,366 Computer simulations of the impact 150 00:09:23,466 --> 00:09:27,767 of an asteroid that massive hitting a city 151 00:09:27,866 --> 00:09:31,567 revealed extraordinary levels of destruction. 152 00:09:32,767 --> 00:09:36,100 An 1,800-foot-diameter asteroid, 153 00:09:36,165 --> 00:09:37,866 that would create a crater 154 00:09:37,966 --> 00:09:42,466 that's 3 or 4 miles across, 1,600 feet deep. 155 00:09:42,567 --> 00:09:43,101 It would have a radiation blast wave that 156 00:09:43,125 --> 00:09:47,100 It would have a radiation blast wave that 157 00:09:47,165 --> 00:09:51,142 would set things on fire for about 20 miles, 158 00:09:51,165 --> 00:09:54,399 but no sooner would things be lit on fire, 159 00:09:54,466 --> 00:09:57,866 there would be a 500-mile-an-hour wind 160 00:09:57,966 --> 00:09:59,442 radiating out, 161 00:09:59,466 --> 00:10:01,899 leveling buildings, knocking down trees, 162 00:10:02,000 --> 00:10:03,942 destroying highways. 163 00:10:03,966 --> 00:10:08,000 100 miles away, you'd still feel a magnitude seven earthquake. 164 00:10:09,399 --> 00:10:12,000 It's not easy to say what is going to kill you first. 165 00:10:12,066 --> 00:10:13,100 It's probably going to be simply the flash of energy. 166 00:10:13,125 --> 00:10:15,299 It's probably going to be simply the flash of energy. 167 00:10:15,366 --> 00:10:18,799 There's so much heat from this thing that you can be vaporized. 168 00:10:18,866 --> 00:10:20,667 If you somehow survived that, 169 00:10:20,767 --> 00:10:22,700 then there's going to be the blast wave that will 170 00:10:22,767 --> 00:10:24,466 pulverize anything in its path. 171 00:10:26,000 --> 00:10:28,000 To build an accurate simulation, 172 00:10:28,066 --> 00:10:32,100 the scientists used more than size and mass. 173 00:10:32,165 --> 00:10:34,899 They also studied its composition 174 00:10:35,000 --> 00:10:36,500 and the speed of its orbit. 175 00:10:38,265 --> 00:10:40,842 You need to know what an asteroid is made of, 176 00:10:40,866 --> 00:10:42,842 the speed of that asteroid, 177 00:10:42,866 --> 00:10:43,101 how large it is in order to understand, 178 00:10:43,125 --> 00:10:45,600 how large it is in order to understand, 179 00:10:45,667 --> 00:10:47,767 will it make it through Earth's atmosphere, 180 00:10:47,866 --> 00:10:50,466 and what might the impact effects be? 181 00:10:52,767 --> 00:10:57,643 Asteroids vary in composition and structure. 182 00:10:57,667 --> 00:11:01,543 Some are loose collections of small rocks, 183 00:11:01,567 --> 00:11:06,600 others rocky and compact. 184 00:11:06,667 --> 00:11:09,842 The most dangerous are metallic. 185 00:11:09,866 --> 00:11:12,500 A metal asteroid can be five times as dense 186 00:11:12,567 --> 00:11:13,101 as some of the lower density asteroids, 187 00:11:13,125 --> 00:11:14,667 as some of the lower density asteroids, 188 00:11:14,767 --> 00:11:17,543 and so for the same speeds on the same orbits 189 00:11:17,567 --> 00:11:20,066 they pack way more punch when it comes to an impact. 190 00:11:24,700 --> 00:11:25,743 If you want to see exactly 191 00:11:25,767 --> 00:11:28,265 what a metallic asteroid can do, 192 00:11:28,366 --> 00:11:31,200 go no farther than Barringer Crater in Arizona. 193 00:11:31,265 --> 00:11:34,042 Now that crater is about a mile across, 194 00:11:34,066 --> 00:11:38,643 and the meteor that made it was only about 150 feet across. 195 00:11:38,667 --> 00:11:42,399 Arizona, 50,000 years ago. 196 00:11:42,466 --> 00:11:43,101 The last major asteroid strike on present day North America, 197 00:11:43,125 --> 00:11:46,667 The last major asteroid strike on present day North America, 198 00:11:48,567 --> 00:11:50,842 a tiny metallic space rock 199 00:11:50,866 --> 00:11:54,899 hits the ground at 25,000 miles an hour, 200 00:11:55,000 --> 00:12:00,366 releasing energy equivalent to 2.5 million tons of TNT. 201 00:12:02,500 --> 00:12:06,866 Scale that up to the size of 1,800-foot Apep, 202 00:12:06,966 --> 00:12:10,466 and it would create a blast wave the size of Delaware. 203 00:12:11,466 --> 00:12:13,100 If Apep were a metal asteroid, it would tear through 204 00:12:13,125 --> 00:12:14,342 If Apep were a metal asteroid, it would tear through 205 00:12:14,366 --> 00:12:16,643 the atmosphere like a cosmic bullet. 206 00:12:16,667 --> 00:12:19,200 In a modern city, without warning, 207 00:12:19,265 --> 00:12:21,000 it could kill a lot of people. 208 00:12:23,000 --> 00:12:25,265 But although they're very dangerous, 209 00:12:25,366 --> 00:12:30,466 they're also very rare. 210 00:12:30,567 --> 00:12:34,543 More common are rubble piles, 211 00:12:34,567 --> 00:12:39,066 loose collections of small rocks held together by gravity. 212 00:12:46,667 --> 00:12:49,000 Rubble pile is kind of the perfect name for them, 213 00:12:49,100 --> 00:12:51,200 but you can think of them as like a literally 214 00:12:51,265 --> 00:12:54,767 a pile of stuff out of a dump truck in your driveway, 215 00:12:54,866 --> 00:12:57,265 but if you take that and you put that in space, 216 00:12:57,366 --> 00:12:59,342 they don't have much gravity but they have enough to stay 217 00:12:59,366 --> 00:13:00,643 bound to each other, 218 00:13:00,667 --> 00:13:03,100 and that's your rubble pile asteroid. 219 00:13:03,166 --> 00:13:07,567 They are just barely holding on to themselves. 220 00:13:07,667 --> 00:13:11,166 If you were to come and just apply sufficient gravity, 221 00:13:11,265 --> 00:13:13,100 you could rip it apart. 222 00:13:13,125 --> 00:13:14,567 You could rip it apart. 223 00:13:18,366 --> 00:13:21,166 Pressure and heat from entering our atmosphere 224 00:13:21,265 --> 00:13:24,966 can also tear a rubble pile asteroid to pieces, 225 00:13:28,866 --> 00:13:31,866 but that can be just as dangerous to a city below. 226 00:13:34,700 --> 00:13:36,142 The breakup of an asteroid in 227 00:13:36,165 --> 00:13:38,667 the upper atmosphere is... Is pretty devastating. 228 00:13:38,767 --> 00:13:41,399 It's like a nuclear weapon going off in the atmosphere, 229 00:13:41,466 --> 00:13:43,100 flattening buildings and breaking windows. 230 00:13:43,125 --> 00:13:44,000 Flattening buildings and breaking windows. 231 00:13:44,100 --> 00:13:45,567 There are going to be mass casualties 232 00:13:45,667 --> 00:13:46,799 from an event like that 233 00:13:46,866 --> 00:13:49,265 due to just the injuries from flying glass and debris. 234 00:13:54,567 --> 00:13:59,265 To discover what type of asteroid Apep belonged to, 235 00:13:59,366 --> 00:14:01,265 the planetary protection team 236 00:14:01,366 --> 00:14:04,366 train their telescopes onto the space rock. 237 00:14:07,567 --> 00:14:10,342 Analysis revealed that Apep was a rocky, 238 00:14:10,366 --> 00:14:13,100 carbonaceous chondrite asteroid, or C-type for short. 239 00:14:13,125 --> 00:14:15,205 Carbonaceous chondrite asteroid, or C-type for short. 240 00:14:17,066 --> 00:14:19,142 C-type asteroids like Apep 241 00:14:19,166 --> 00:14:21,700 are less dense than metal asteroids, 242 00:14:21,767 --> 00:14:24,767 but more solid than rubble piles. 243 00:14:24,866 --> 00:14:27,100 If a big enough C-type asteroid 244 00:14:27,166 --> 00:14:29,241 penetrates the Earth's atmosphere, 245 00:14:29,265 --> 00:14:32,299 it has the chance to make it all the way down to the surface. 246 00:14:32,366 --> 00:14:35,165 It doesn't necessarily burn up in the atmosphere. 247 00:14:43,000 --> 00:14:43,101 Apep's size, mass, and composition told us 248 00:14:43,125 --> 00:14:46,442 Apep's size, mass, and composition told us 249 00:14:46,466 --> 00:14:50,100 it would punch through our atmosphere and hit the surface. 250 00:14:54,100 --> 00:14:57,567 The final piece of information needed to accurately predict 251 00:14:57,667 --> 00:15:00,265 the true amount of damage from the impact 252 00:15:00,366 --> 00:15:04,466 was Apep's kinetic energy, the amount of energy 253 00:15:04,567 --> 00:15:06,866 the asteroid would punch into the ground. 254 00:15:09,166 --> 00:15:13,000 The kinetic energy of an object depends on the mass, 255 00:15:13,066 --> 00:15:13,101 and it depends even more strongly on the speed. 256 00:15:13,125 --> 00:15:16,543 And it depends even more strongly on the speed. 257 00:15:16,567 --> 00:15:19,567 More mass creates more kinetic energy, 258 00:15:19,667 --> 00:15:23,866 but more velocity will increase the kinetic energy by 259 00:15:23,966 --> 00:15:25,466 a squared factor. 260 00:15:25,567 --> 00:15:28,799 For example, if something has twice the velocity, 261 00:15:28,866 --> 00:15:32,165 it will have four times the same energy. 262 00:15:32,265 --> 00:15:36,200 Scientists calculated how much energy Apep, 263 00:15:36,265 --> 00:15:39,643 weighing in at 123 million tons 264 00:15:39,667 --> 00:15:42,200 and traveling at 40,000 miles an hour, 265 00:15:42,265 --> 00:15:43,101 would transfer into the Earth. 266 00:15:43,125 --> 00:15:45,543 Would transfer into the Earth. 267 00:15:45,567 --> 00:15:47,600 So what kind of energies were involved here? 268 00:15:47,667 --> 00:15:50,799 Uh, you know, 1,800-foot diameter asteroid. 269 00:15:50,866 --> 00:15:53,000 It's 112 million tons, 270 00:15:53,066 --> 00:15:55,866 and it's traveling at 40,000 miles per hour. 271 00:15:55,966 --> 00:15:57,142 That's something on the order of 272 00:15:57,165 --> 00:15:59,643 10 to the 19th joules of energy, 273 00:15:59,667 --> 00:16:02,265 a one followed by 19 zeros. 274 00:16:10,265 --> 00:16:13,100 1.8 times 10 to the 19 joules is equivalent to 5,000 megatons. 275 00:16:13,125 --> 00:16:16,299 1.8 times 10 to the 19 joules is equivalent to 5,000 megatons. 276 00:16:16,366 --> 00:16:18,000 Take a one megaton nuke, 277 00:16:18,066 --> 00:16:23,342 a substantial nuclear weapon, and then blow up 5,000 of them. 278 00:16:23,366 --> 00:16:27,200 That is roughly the same amount as all the nuclear 279 00:16:27,265 --> 00:16:28,366 weapons on Earth, 280 00:16:28,466 --> 00:16:29,866 detonating all at once. 281 00:16:35,165 --> 00:16:38,000 A strike this large would affect the whole planet. 282 00:16:40,700 --> 00:16:43,000 This would have global impacts. 283 00:16:43,100 --> 00:16:43,100 We would have to deal with the fallout, 284 00:16:43,124 --> 00:16:44,543 We would have to deal with the fallout, 285 00:16:44,567 --> 00:16:47,299 the literal fallout from this event for... 286 00:16:47,366 --> 00:16:49,165 For potentially 1,000 years. 287 00:16:53,200 --> 00:16:55,567 Spring, 2023. 288 00:16:55,667 --> 00:16:58,142 We had two choices... 289 00:16:58,165 --> 00:17:02,200 Do nothing and face a planet-changing catastrophe, 290 00:17:02,265 --> 00:17:04,700 or fight back. 291 00:17:04,767 --> 00:17:07,165 We chose to take on Apep. 292 00:17:08,666 --> 00:17:11,542 It was the first time in human history 293 00:17:11,567 --> 00:17:13,101 that we might actually be able to prevent a natural disaster 294 00:17:13,125 --> 00:17:15,142 that we might actually be able to prevent a natural disaster 295 00:17:15,165 --> 00:17:16,666 from happening. 296 00:17:16,767 --> 00:17:20,142 We could plan and launch a response mission, 297 00:17:20,165 --> 00:17:21,685 so we don't have to get out of the way. 298 00:17:21,767 --> 00:17:23,900 Make it get out of the way instead. 299 00:17:26,866 --> 00:17:29,700 The mission's objective was simple... 300 00:17:29,767 --> 00:17:33,467 Stop the asteroid, and save the world. 301 00:17:35,767 --> 00:17:38,542 We can't superglue an earthquake fault shut. 302 00:17:38,567 --> 00:17:41,467 We can't cork volcanoes, 303 00:17:41,567 --> 00:17:43,101 but planning for an asteroid impact 304 00:17:43,125 --> 00:17:44,343 but planning for an asteroid impact 305 00:17:44,366 --> 00:17:46,099 is something we really could do. 306 00:17:55,366 --> 00:17:57,599 June 2023. 307 00:17:59,599 --> 00:18:04,666 A large asteroid was headed towards Earth. 308 00:18:04,767 --> 00:18:09,099 It was predicted to strike on November 4, 2029. 309 00:18:16,467 --> 00:18:17,567 To protect our planet, 310 00:18:17,599 --> 00:18:18,477 A team of scientists plan to deflect the asteroid. 311 00:18:18,500 --> 00:18:25,366 A team of scientists plan to deflect the asteroid. 312 00:18:25,467 --> 00:18:27,666 An 1,800-foot wide asteroid 313 00:18:27,767 --> 00:18:29,467 was headed towards the Earth. 314 00:18:29,567 --> 00:18:34,567 We needed it to go in literally any other direction. 315 00:18:34,666 --> 00:18:37,666 So how could we push Apep off course? 316 00:18:39,165 --> 00:18:44,866 Scientists found a clue in the asteroid belt. 317 00:18:47,900 --> 00:18:48,477 Sometimes the lumps of space debris collide 318 00:18:48,500 --> 00:18:51,400 Sometimes the lumps of space debris collide 319 00:18:51,467 --> 00:18:54,542 and change their trajectory. 320 00:18:54,567 --> 00:18:59,700 Maybe we could replicate this and deflect Apep. 321 00:18:59,767 --> 00:19:02,200 We could try to deflect the asteroid and change its orbit 322 00:19:02,266 --> 00:19:04,599 so that it actually misses the Earth. 323 00:19:04,666 --> 00:19:06,400 If you do it early enough, 324 00:19:06,467 --> 00:19:10,400 it may not be much, less than half a millimeter per second, 325 00:19:10,467 --> 00:19:12,942 but that is enough. 326 00:19:12,967 --> 00:19:17,799 These asteroids travel for millions of miles, and so over 327 00:19:17,866 --> 00:19:18,477 the course of days, weeks, 328 00:19:18,500 --> 00:19:19,643 the course of days, weeks, 329 00:19:19,666 --> 00:19:24,000 months, and years, it will have a radically different orbit. 330 00:19:25,066 --> 00:19:26,567 Sounds simple. 331 00:19:26,666 --> 00:19:30,000 Send up a rocket with a robotic space probe, 332 00:19:30,066 --> 00:19:34,567 travel millions of miles, and knock Apep away from Earth. 333 00:19:35,866 --> 00:19:36,866 Piece of cake. 334 00:19:38,866 --> 00:19:39,933 In the movies, 335 00:19:40,000 --> 00:19:42,165 when there's a threatening asteroid that's found, 336 00:19:42,266 --> 00:19:45,942 there's always a rocket on the pad ready to go after that, 337 00:19:45,967 --> 00:19:48,476 and it's not the case in real life. 338 00:19:48,500 --> 00:19:48,767 And it's not the case in real life. 339 00:19:48,866 --> 00:19:51,142 It takes years to design the mission, 340 00:19:51,165 --> 00:19:53,400 to build the satellite, to launch it, 341 00:19:53,467 --> 00:19:54,843 and then it has to get there, 342 00:19:54,866 --> 00:19:57,866 and that might be millions of miles away from Earth. 343 00:19:59,000 --> 00:20:01,366 Fortunately, Earth had a head start. 344 00:20:02,700 --> 00:20:05,000 We detected Apep early, 345 00:20:07,366 --> 00:20:12,041 and we'd already built an asteroid deflector called 346 00:20:12,066 --> 00:20:15,241 the Double Asteroid Redirection Test, 347 00:20:15,266 --> 00:20:17,500 or DART for short. 348 00:20:19,500 --> 00:20:24,099 In 2021 we sent DART 6.8 million miles 349 00:20:24,165 --> 00:20:27,700 to rendezvous with an asteroid called Didymos. 350 00:20:28,866 --> 00:20:31,500 Didymos posed no threat to Earth, 351 00:20:31,567 --> 00:20:33,967 but allowed us to test the technology. 352 00:20:35,467 --> 00:20:36,866 The asteroid called Didymos 353 00:20:36,967 --> 00:20:40,200 has a small moon asteroid going around it. 354 00:20:40,266 --> 00:20:41,343 The point of the DART mission 355 00:20:41,366 --> 00:20:44,200 was to send an impactor into this little moon 356 00:20:44,266 --> 00:20:47,099 and see how much we nudge it off the orbit that it's in. 357 00:20:48,666 --> 00:20:50,942 Lessons learned from DART 358 00:20:50,967 --> 00:20:53,200 would inspire a new mission. 359 00:20:56,066 --> 00:20:58,742 November 2025. 360 00:20:58,767 --> 00:21:01,442 We launched the DAAFE mission... 361 00:21:01,467 --> 00:21:06,041 Deflect Apep away from Earth. 362 00:21:06,066 --> 00:21:09,366 This wasn't a test run to a safe asteroid. 363 00:21:09,467 --> 00:21:12,942 This was the real deal, a mission to save our planet. 364 00:21:12,967 --> 00:21:17,099 It was an enormous technical challenge, 365 00:21:17,165 --> 00:21:18,476 and we had no idea if it would work. 366 00:21:18,500 --> 00:21:20,000 And we had no idea if it would work. 367 00:21:21,200 --> 00:21:25,000 When you think about a spacecraft going from Earth 368 00:21:25,066 --> 00:21:28,099 millions of miles away to hit an asteroid 369 00:21:28,165 --> 00:21:29,742 at an exact point in time, 370 00:21:29,767 --> 00:21:30,942 at an exact point in space. 371 00:21:30,967 --> 00:21:33,343 It's really the ultimate bullseye. 372 00:21:33,366 --> 00:21:37,099 It's like trying to hit one bullet with another bullet 373 00:21:37,165 --> 00:21:39,366 launched from the other side of a continent. 374 00:21:41,666 --> 00:21:43,666 November 2028. 375 00:21:44,767 --> 00:21:48,476 After three years in space, DAAFE arrived at Apep. 376 00:21:48,500 --> 00:21:50,460 After three years in space, DAAFE arrived at Apep. 377 00:21:52,467 --> 00:21:54,343 This was our last chance. 378 00:21:54,366 --> 00:21:56,000 This was our only chance. 379 00:21:59,266 --> 00:22:00,242 The kinetic impactor 380 00:22:00,267 --> 00:22:04,165 smashed into Apep at 14,000 miles an hour. 381 00:22:10,799 --> 00:22:14,200 On Earth, telescopes and radar tracked the collision. 382 00:22:15,799 --> 00:22:16,942 Did it work? 383 00:22:16,967 --> 00:22:18,476 Did we push the asteroid off course? 384 00:22:18,500 --> 00:22:20,467 Did we push the asteroid off course? 385 00:22:20,567 --> 00:22:22,467 At first glance, the mission worked. 386 00:22:22,567 --> 00:22:25,767 We deflected Apep away from us. 387 00:22:28,000 --> 00:22:29,666 It looked like the mission worked. 388 00:22:32,799 --> 00:22:34,643 As an astronomer, and, you know, 389 00:22:34,666 --> 00:22:36,866 a human who has to live on this planet, 390 00:22:36,967 --> 00:22:38,299 I was very happy, right? 391 00:22:38,366 --> 00:22:41,000 We've just literally saved the world. 392 00:22:41,066 --> 00:22:43,666 But the happiness was short-lived. 393 00:22:44,767 --> 00:22:46,000 There was a problem. 394 00:22:46,099 --> 00:22:48,476 The collision had pushed Apep away from Earth, 395 00:22:48,500 --> 00:22:50,299 The collision had pushed Apep away from Earth, 396 00:22:53,266 --> 00:22:57,666 but it also sheared off a 300-foot chunk of rock. 397 00:22:59,366 --> 00:23:03,400 This smaller asteroid, called Apep 2.0, 398 00:23:03,467 --> 00:23:05,165 could still be a significant threat. 399 00:23:08,266 --> 00:23:13,099 A 300-foot chunk of rock is still very, very large. 400 00:23:13,165 --> 00:23:14,666 300 feet wide. 401 00:23:14,767 --> 00:23:17,000 That's almost a football field. 402 00:23:18,099 --> 00:23:18,477 So the important things we needed to know... 403 00:23:18,500 --> 00:23:19,942 So the important things we needed to know... 404 00:23:19,967 --> 00:23:21,567 Was it going to hit us? 405 00:23:22,599 --> 00:23:24,799 And if so, where is it going to hit us? 406 00:23:26,900 --> 00:23:31,041 March 2029, we got our answer. 407 00:23:31,066 --> 00:23:33,266 Its point of impact... 408 00:23:33,366 --> 00:23:36,000 The east coast of the United States, 409 00:23:37,599 --> 00:23:40,767 with New York City in the firing line. 410 00:23:43,500 --> 00:23:46,066 A smaller chunk headed for New York City. 411 00:23:47,200 --> 00:23:48,476 This was the worst-case scenario. 412 00:23:48,500 --> 00:23:50,066 This was the worst-case scenario. 413 00:23:59,000 --> 00:24:00,142 I want to emphasize, 414 00:24:00,165 --> 00:24:02,442 there's no asteroid headed toward New York tonight. 415 00:24:02,467 --> 00:24:05,366 This is just a discussion about 416 00:24:05,467 --> 00:24:07,366 what this process would be like. 417 00:24:15,567 --> 00:24:16,843 In 2028, 418 00:24:16,866 --> 00:24:19,900 we tried to deflect Apep away from Earth. 419 00:24:22,165 --> 00:24:23,974 The mission wasn't a complete success. 420 00:24:23,999 --> 00:24:26,767 The mission wasn't a complete success. 421 00:24:26,866 --> 00:24:28,742 Yes, we managed to actually divert 422 00:24:28,767 --> 00:24:31,500 the large asteroid away from hitting the Earth, 423 00:24:31,567 --> 00:24:34,366 but in doing so, we broke off a clump big enough 424 00:24:34,467 --> 00:24:37,299 to be very dangerous heading toward the eastern seaboard. 425 00:24:39,666 --> 00:24:44,299 June 2029, five months to impact. 426 00:24:46,366 --> 00:24:48,866 The future looked bleak for New York, 427 00:24:48,967 --> 00:24:50,767 but it wasn't the time to give up. 428 00:24:52,000 --> 00:24:53,643 They reassessed an idea 429 00:24:53,666 --> 00:24:53,976 first suggested to destroy the original 1,800-foot Apep, 430 00:24:54,000 --> 00:25:00,041 first suggested to destroy the original 1,800-foot Apep, 431 00:25:00,066 --> 00:25:01,467 a nuclear strike. 432 00:25:03,799 --> 00:25:05,241 It worked in Armageddon. 433 00:25:05,266 --> 00:25:07,266 Maybe it would work in real life. 434 00:25:08,599 --> 00:25:12,266 However, studies revealed that nuking an asteroid 435 00:25:12,366 --> 00:25:16,442 wasn't as simple as it looks in a Hollywood movie. 436 00:25:16,467 --> 00:25:17,467 Hey, let's blow it up. 437 00:25:17,567 --> 00:25:18,643 Let's nuke it, right? 438 00:25:18,666 --> 00:25:20,643 Well, instead of one big problem, 439 00:25:20,666 --> 00:25:22,500 now you have slightly smaller problems, 440 00:25:22,567 --> 00:25:23,974 and they're radioactive, by the way. 441 00:25:23,999 --> 00:25:24,900 And they're radioactive, by the way. 442 00:25:25,000 --> 00:25:26,165 So you don't want to do that. 443 00:25:28,000 --> 00:25:30,500 Computer simulations revealed 444 00:25:30,567 --> 00:25:32,142 that even the world's largest 445 00:25:32,165 --> 00:25:36,343 nuclear weapon had only 1 percent of the energy needed 446 00:25:36,366 --> 00:25:40,266 to destroy the original 1,800-foot Apep. 447 00:25:42,165 --> 00:25:46,099 We needed the world's most powerful nuclear weapon 448 00:25:46,165 --> 00:25:50,700 and 99 of its best friends, launch them all simultaneously, 449 00:25:50,767 --> 00:25:53,974 and have them simultaneously hit the asteroid. 450 00:25:53,999 --> 00:25:54,200 And have them simultaneously hit the asteroid. 451 00:25:54,266 --> 00:25:57,599 It was simply beyond our technological capabilities. 452 00:26:00,299 --> 00:26:02,442 Fortunately, thanks to the DAAFE mission, 453 00:26:02,467 --> 00:26:06,567 we only had to take out the 300-foot Apep 2.0. 454 00:26:12,099 --> 00:26:15,165 Could we blow the smaller asteroid out of the sky? 455 00:26:19,099 --> 00:26:22,666 Maybe, but launching a nuclear Hail Mary 456 00:26:22,767 --> 00:26:23,974 would be very controversial. 457 00:26:23,999 --> 00:26:25,118 Would be very controversial. 458 00:26:26,500 --> 00:26:31,142 Nuclear devices are the most powerful, 459 00:26:31,165 --> 00:26:32,843 really, one of the most emotional 460 00:26:32,866 --> 00:26:35,900 things that humans have ever invented. 461 00:26:39,767 --> 00:26:43,299 They are the most powerful tool in our toolbox. 462 00:26:43,366 --> 00:26:46,366 We've got a hammer, and it's a very big hammer, 463 00:26:46,467 --> 00:26:49,767 but there are a lot of concerns with them, 464 00:26:49,866 --> 00:26:53,266 so they cannot be tested in space, 465 00:26:53,366 --> 00:26:53,976 according to international law. 466 00:26:54,000 --> 00:26:55,240 According to international law. 467 00:26:56,567 --> 00:26:59,767 Without being able to test nukes in space, 468 00:26:59,866 --> 00:27:01,666 they were considered too big a risk, 469 00:27:06,099 --> 00:27:10,165 but New York had one final potential savior, 470 00:27:11,400 --> 00:27:13,165 the Earth itself. 471 00:27:16,900 --> 00:27:20,000 2013, Chelyabinsk, Russia. 472 00:27:21,599 --> 00:27:23,974 An asteroid blew up in the atmosphere. 473 00:27:23,999 --> 00:27:25,479 An asteroid blew up in the atmosphere. 474 00:27:26,599 --> 00:27:28,742 It didn't make it all the way to the surface, 475 00:27:28,767 --> 00:27:31,467 and the people in Chelyabinsk are very lucky because of that. 476 00:27:33,099 --> 00:27:36,099 The 60-foot-wide Chelyabinsk asteroid 477 00:27:36,165 --> 00:27:38,165 was rocky like Apep, 478 00:27:39,000 --> 00:27:41,000 and it moved at a similar velocity, 479 00:27:41,099 --> 00:27:43,000 around 40,000 miles an hour, 480 00:27:44,866 --> 00:27:50,599 but it met its match when it entered Earth's atmosphere. 481 00:27:50,666 --> 00:27:52,666 Earth's atmosphere doesn't look like much. 482 00:27:52,767 --> 00:27:53,974 You think, oh, it's just air, it doesn't matter, 483 00:27:53,999 --> 00:27:54,666 You think, oh, it's just air, it doesn't matter, 484 00:27:54,767 --> 00:27:57,343 but all of those molecules actually exert pressure 485 00:27:57,366 --> 00:27:58,866 on the front edge of the asteroid, 486 00:27:58,967 --> 00:28:02,241 slowing it down and heating it up. 487 00:28:02,266 --> 00:28:03,366 Rock heated up 488 00:28:03,467 --> 00:28:07,767 and began to crumble and explode as it came through. 489 00:28:07,866 --> 00:28:10,542 The midair explosion, called an airburst, 490 00:28:10,567 --> 00:28:15,165 released more energy than 440,000 tons of TNT. 491 00:28:21,500 --> 00:28:23,767 The shockwave traveled 100 miles, 492 00:28:24,799 --> 00:28:27,299 damaging 7,000 buildings 493 00:28:27,366 --> 00:28:29,266 and injuring 1,500 people. 494 00:28:30,700 --> 00:28:33,200 But a ground strike hitting a city 495 00:28:33,266 --> 00:28:34,467 would have been a lot worse. 496 00:28:42,299 --> 00:28:46,500 Apep 2.0 was five times larger than the Chelyabinsk Rock. 497 00:28:48,700 --> 00:28:50,366 Would it break up during its 498 00:28:50,467 --> 00:28:53,866 10-second trip down through the atmosphere, 499 00:28:53,967 --> 00:28:53,976 or would it pierce right through? 500 00:28:54,000 --> 00:28:58,366 Or would it pierce right through? 501 00:28:58,467 --> 00:29:01,500 The planetary defense team ran simulations. 502 00:29:03,666 --> 00:29:07,000 As that comes through Earth's atmosphere, 503 00:29:07,099 --> 00:29:10,000 some of that hot air can get into the cracks. 504 00:29:11,066 --> 00:29:14,467 Friction and pressure would heat Apep 2.0's 505 00:29:14,567 --> 00:29:17,866 surface to thousands of degrees Fahrenheit. 506 00:29:19,099 --> 00:29:22,000 At those temperatures, even rock burns. 507 00:29:23,299 --> 00:29:23,976 We would see this flaming monster 508 00:29:24,000 --> 00:29:26,467 We would see this flaming monster 509 00:29:26,567 --> 00:29:30,742 of death coming racing through our atmosphere. 510 00:29:30,767 --> 00:29:34,165 There are gonna be pieces of debris vaporizing 511 00:29:34,266 --> 00:29:35,542 and coming off of it. 512 00:29:35,567 --> 00:29:37,666 So you get these flashes of light that happen 513 00:29:37,767 --> 00:29:39,343 one after another... pop, pop, pop, pop, pop, pop, pop, 514 00:29:39,366 --> 00:29:40,900 as these things are blowing up. 515 00:29:46,666 --> 00:29:48,041 The computer simulations 516 00:29:48,066 --> 00:29:50,000 showed that the extra bulk of 517 00:29:50,099 --> 00:29:53,767 Apep 2.0 would stop it from blowing up. 518 00:29:57,099 --> 00:29:59,799 Some of the asteroid would blast away, 519 00:29:59,866 --> 00:30:01,900 but most of the space rock 520 00:30:02,000 --> 00:30:05,599 would reach the Earth's surface. 521 00:30:05,666 --> 00:30:07,799 So that close to the actual impact, 522 00:30:07,866 --> 00:30:10,200 we pretty much just had to hunker down and take it. 523 00:30:13,567 --> 00:30:16,400 The prospects for New York City were grim. 524 00:30:18,099 --> 00:30:20,299 It was facing annihilation. 525 00:30:32,666 --> 00:30:35,165 October 2029. 526 00:30:35,266 --> 00:30:39,366 Three weeks to impact. 527 00:30:39,467 --> 00:30:42,799 For the citizens of the New York metropolitan area, 528 00:30:42,866 --> 00:30:47,866 there was only one goal... Get out of the firing line. 529 00:30:52,567 --> 00:30:53,567 Now we had to have 530 00:30:53,599 --> 00:30:56,000 the plans in place to evacuate these cities. 531 00:30:56,023 --> 00:30:57,076 The plans in place to evacuate these cities. 532 00:30:57,099 --> 00:31:01,500 It was a major emergency for New York and its citizens. 533 00:31:01,567 --> 00:31:04,200 Time to move out of the way. 534 00:31:05,567 --> 00:31:08,467 To work out who should evacuate and to where, 535 00:31:08,567 --> 00:31:10,599 Scientists ran detailed projections 536 00:31:10,666 --> 00:31:14,400 of the potential blast area. 537 00:31:14,467 --> 00:31:17,467 There's an ellipse there that we call the hazard ellipse that 538 00:31:17,567 --> 00:31:21,599 says somewhere in this area is where the asteroid will hit. 539 00:31:21,666 --> 00:31:23,467 That means there's a little wiggle room 540 00:31:23,567 --> 00:31:26,000 and a range of areas that are in danger. 541 00:31:26,023 --> 00:31:27,584 And a range of areas that are in danger. 542 00:31:28,066 --> 00:31:31,165 Based on the hazard ellipse projections, 543 00:31:31,266 --> 00:31:34,099 the government issued evacuation orders 544 00:31:34,165 --> 00:31:36,767 for the tri-state area, 545 00:31:36,866 --> 00:31:39,542 and as far south as Philadelphia. 546 00:31:39,567 --> 00:31:43,643 It was the biggest evacuation in US history. 547 00:31:43,666 --> 00:31:46,567 Millions were displaced. 548 00:31:46,666 --> 00:31:49,066 It was physically horrific. 549 00:31:51,299 --> 00:31:54,241 I live in the New York metropolitan area. 550 00:31:54,266 --> 00:31:56,000 It was horrible for me and my family and my friends, 551 00:31:56,023 --> 00:31:57,241 It was horrible for me and my family and my friends, 552 00:31:57,266 --> 00:32:01,799 but we can't just sit here and cross our fingers and hope that 553 00:32:01,866 --> 00:32:03,299 we don't get struck. 554 00:32:04,866 --> 00:32:07,366 The freeways out of the city were jammed. 555 00:32:11,767 --> 00:32:14,000 Trains were packed. 556 00:32:14,099 --> 00:32:16,866 Over 23 million people evacuated, 557 00:32:17,967 --> 00:32:20,567 leaving behind a deserted city. 558 00:32:23,165 --> 00:32:25,742 Computer models show that the epicenter 559 00:32:25,767 --> 00:32:26,000 of the strike would be Manhattan. 560 00:32:26,025 --> 00:32:27,799 Of the strike would be Manhattan. 561 00:32:31,000 --> 00:32:35,200 The blast would reduce the city to rubble and ash. 562 00:32:36,266 --> 00:32:39,299 There would be a one-mile-wide crater resulting from it, 563 00:32:39,366 --> 00:32:41,366 so deep that it would actually take 564 00:32:41,467 --> 00:32:44,767 the entire subway system and turn it upside down and lay it 565 00:32:44,866 --> 00:32:47,700 onto the rim of the crater. 566 00:32:47,767 --> 00:32:50,142 You would have a magnitude 5 earthquake 567 00:32:50,165 --> 00:32:52,266 at even six miles away from that, 568 00:32:52,366 --> 00:32:54,442 and there would be a big air blast, 569 00:32:54,467 --> 00:32:56,000 400-mile-an-hour winds. 570 00:32:56,023 --> 00:32:57,023 400-mile-an-hour winds. 571 00:32:57,799 --> 00:33:00,400 Something as light as a pencil could be a lethal weapon 572 00:33:00,467 --> 00:33:02,266 when picked up by a shock wave like that. 573 00:33:03,799 --> 00:33:07,767 As the crater is blasting out and excavating itself, 574 00:33:07,866 --> 00:33:13,467 there would be little blobs of molten rock that get thrown out 575 00:33:13,567 --> 00:33:16,299 in this wave, going faster than the speed of sound, 576 00:33:18,266 --> 00:33:19,700 Like drops a fiery rain, 577 00:33:19,767 --> 00:33:22,666 if you will, landing back miles away from the crater. 578 00:33:27,767 --> 00:33:29,799 The city would be on fire. 579 00:33:32,266 --> 00:33:35,567 So, um, there's just no upside to this. 580 00:33:35,666 --> 00:33:36,567 There's nothing good. 581 00:33:36,599 --> 00:33:38,900 It's just all from bad to horrific. 582 00:33:40,900 --> 00:33:43,542 But New York is by the ocean. 583 00:33:43,567 --> 00:33:48,266 What would happen if Apep 2.0 hit the sea? 584 00:33:52,567 --> 00:33:56,000 Detailed simulations have revealed two very 585 00:33:56,066 --> 00:33:57,142 different outcomes 586 00:33:57,165 --> 00:34:00,866 for an asteroid hitting the ocean at high speeds. 587 00:34:04,400 --> 00:34:07,467 If a giant asteroid strikes the deep ocean, 588 00:34:07,567 --> 00:34:09,599 less than 1 percent of its energy 589 00:34:09,666 --> 00:34:11,443 gets converted into waves. 590 00:34:11,467 --> 00:34:13,766 Those waves quickly disperse. 591 00:34:13,867 --> 00:34:16,543 They quickly lose energy as they travel. 592 00:34:16,567 --> 00:34:20,443 By the time they reach the coast, it might just be 593 00:34:20,467 --> 00:34:21,467 a little ripple, 594 00:34:21,567 --> 00:34:23,500 you might not even be able to surf on it. 595 00:34:29,666 --> 00:34:32,467 If the asteroid hit shallow coastal waters, 596 00:34:34,867 --> 00:34:37,699 it could cause significant damage along the shoreline. 597 00:34:39,467 --> 00:34:43,300 If an asteroid, the size of Apep hits the continental shelf 598 00:34:43,367 --> 00:34:45,342 where the water is relatively shallow, 599 00:34:45,367 --> 00:34:48,467 then it could potentially cause a tsunami. 600 00:34:52,699 --> 00:34:54,867 But that would just be the start of the problems. 601 00:34:58,199 --> 00:34:59,842 With a shallow water impactor, 602 00:34:59,867 --> 00:35:03,199 huge amounts of steam are generated basically by 603 00:35:03,266 --> 00:35:06,643 the energy of that impactor vaporizing all the water. 604 00:35:06,666 --> 00:35:08,943 Well, all the water is then put up into the atmosphere, 605 00:35:08,967 --> 00:35:12,266 and water is a really good greenhouse gas. 606 00:35:12,367 --> 00:35:14,141 So you have warming from the launch of water 607 00:35:14,166 --> 00:35:15,199 up into the atmosphere. 608 00:35:15,266 --> 00:35:17,867 You have cooling from all of the ash and dust. 609 00:35:24,266 --> 00:35:25,266 A short bout of warming 610 00:35:25,367 --> 00:35:26,001 would be followed by a brutal winter. 611 00:35:26,025 --> 00:35:27,666 Would be followed by a brutal winter. 612 00:35:29,166 --> 00:35:31,800 Crops would fail. 613 00:35:31,867 --> 00:35:37,800 This impact has so many horrible follow-on consequences. 614 00:35:37,867 --> 00:35:40,766 That tells us how difficult it would be to... 615 00:35:40,867 --> 00:35:43,666 To rebuild from an event like this. 616 00:35:47,599 --> 00:35:48,643 The eastern seaboard 617 00:35:48,666 --> 00:35:52,041 would suffer a serious economic downturn. 618 00:35:52,065 --> 00:35:54,166 It would take decades to recover. 619 00:35:59,199 --> 00:36:01,099 November 3rd, 2029. 620 00:36:02,500 --> 00:36:04,567 One day until impact. 621 00:36:06,400 --> 00:36:09,666 The space rock was just 400,000 miles away, 622 00:36:10,666 --> 00:36:16,000 and traveling 13 times faster than an F-15 fighter jet. 623 00:36:16,099 --> 00:36:20,367 It was first a dim star, and then a brighter star, 624 00:36:20,467 --> 00:36:23,166 and then in the hours before, you can actually see it 625 00:36:23,266 --> 00:36:24,367 approaching the Earth. 626 00:36:25,867 --> 00:36:26,001 New York looked outmatched. 627 00:36:26,025 --> 00:36:28,699 New York looked outmatched. 628 00:36:28,766 --> 00:36:31,699 It looked like Apep would win, 629 00:36:31,766 --> 00:36:34,599 but this was not the end of the game. 630 00:36:34,666 --> 00:36:37,467 Earth had one final card to play. 631 00:36:49,467 --> 00:36:51,567 November 4th, 2029. 632 00:36:53,500 --> 00:36:57,300 The 300-foot Apep 2.0 reached Earth. 633 00:36:59,800 --> 00:37:01,342 The space rock pierced our 634 00:37:01,367 --> 00:37:05,166 atmosphere and hurtled towards the surface. 635 00:37:18,099 --> 00:37:22,000 Then the asteroid passed over Manhattan, 636 00:37:24,367 --> 00:37:27,041 over Brooklyn, 637 00:37:27,065 --> 00:37:28,766 and over Coney Island. 638 00:37:31,099 --> 00:37:35,400 It hit deep ocean, 350 miles off the coast. 639 00:37:42,199 --> 00:37:45,742 Apep 2.0 missed New York. 640 00:37:45,766 --> 00:37:46,766 But how? 641 00:37:50,300 --> 00:37:52,199 Our 7-year battle with the asteroid 642 00:37:52,266 --> 00:37:55,141 resolved in a matter of seconds 643 00:37:55,166 --> 00:37:58,199 thanks to orbital dynamics. 644 00:37:59,300 --> 00:38:01,567 The orbit of the asteroid and the orbit of the Earth 645 00:38:01,666 --> 00:38:05,400 and the way the Earth spins in this great cosmic ballet 646 00:38:05,467 --> 00:38:06,699 means that 647 00:38:06,766 --> 00:38:10,242 a few seconds earlier or later makes the difference between 648 00:38:10,266 --> 00:38:11,675 hitting the ocean and hitting land. 649 00:38:11,699 --> 00:38:13,059 Hitting the ocean and hitting land. 650 00:38:13,800 --> 00:38:16,266 Earth rotates at 1,000 miles an hour 651 00:38:17,699 --> 00:38:22,543 and orbits the sun at close to 65,000 miles an hour. 652 00:38:22,567 --> 00:38:26,699 Apep orbited at 40,000 miles an hour, 653 00:38:26,766 --> 00:38:31,467 but Apep 2.0 traveled fractionally slower. 654 00:38:33,266 --> 00:38:36,166 The impact of the DAAFE mission that sheared off 655 00:38:36,266 --> 00:38:41,367 the 300-foot chunk of rock had also slowed it down. 656 00:38:41,467 --> 00:38:41,675 Slowing down Apep 657 00:38:41,699 --> 00:38:42,867 Slowing down Apep 658 00:38:42,967 --> 00:38:45,166 changed when it's going to intersect the Earth. 659 00:38:45,266 --> 00:38:47,099 So New York spun out of the crosshairs. 660 00:38:51,699 --> 00:38:56,041 Apep 2.0, hit the ocean and exploded, 661 00:38:56,065 --> 00:38:57,666 breaking up instantly. 662 00:39:00,099 --> 00:39:03,443 The strike threw up a wall of water into the air, 663 00:39:03,467 --> 00:39:05,666 followed by huge clouds of steam. 664 00:39:07,500 --> 00:39:11,000 The impact created small surface waves that quickly 665 00:39:11,065 --> 00:39:11,675 died away. 666 00:39:11,699 --> 00:39:12,699 Died away. 667 00:39:13,599 --> 00:39:17,699 It's like doing a gigantic interplanetary belly flop. 668 00:39:17,766 --> 00:39:20,742 It evaporates, it obliterates, and it generates 669 00:39:20,766 --> 00:39:23,500 an enormous amount of steam, and it sets up shock waves. 670 00:39:23,567 --> 00:39:25,266 All that energy is still released, 671 00:39:25,367 --> 00:39:28,467 but the ocean is capable of absorbing it. 672 00:39:31,766 --> 00:39:35,599 New York dodged the bullet and escaped unscathed 673 00:39:37,266 --> 00:39:40,400 thanks to the dedication, ingenuity, 674 00:39:40,467 --> 00:39:41,675 and enterprise of a global team of scientists. 675 00:39:41,699 --> 00:39:48,199 And enterprise of a global team of scientists. 676 00:39:50,500 --> 00:39:54,666 Apep was an imaginary asteroid, 677 00:39:54,766 --> 00:39:58,699 but there are many potentially hazardous space rocks out there. 678 00:40:01,467 --> 00:40:04,266 Thankfully, this was a fictional scenario. 679 00:40:04,367 --> 00:40:07,867 It's a thought exercise, but it's informed by our real, 680 00:40:07,967 --> 00:40:11,000 actual knowledge we've gained over the years of dealing with, 681 00:40:11,065 --> 00:40:11,675 you know, potential close approaches and the hazard from 682 00:40:11,699 --> 00:40:13,900 you know, potential close approaches and the hazard from 683 00:40:14,000 --> 00:40:18,242 real asteroids that we actually know about. 684 00:40:18,266 --> 00:40:21,867 Asteroid research is a good insurance policy 685 00:40:21,967 --> 00:40:23,543 for our species. 686 00:40:23,567 --> 00:40:27,041 Hopefully we will never need to carry these things out 687 00:40:27,065 --> 00:40:28,543 for real. 688 00:40:28,567 --> 00:40:30,867 Large asteroid strikes are rare, 689 00:40:32,300 --> 00:40:34,065 but we cannot be complacent. 690 00:40:39,266 --> 00:40:41,675 The most important thing to do in planetary defense 691 00:40:41,699 --> 00:40:42,742 The most important thing to do in planetary defense 692 00:40:42,766 --> 00:40:44,400 is to find them early. 693 00:40:44,467 --> 00:40:46,742 If we find them early, we have a chance to predict 694 00:40:46,766 --> 00:40:49,599 the possible impacts and we have a chance to mitigate them. 695 00:40:54,766 --> 00:40:56,599 Our technology is improving, 696 00:40:58,065 --> 00:41:01,400 so we can detect incoming space rocks earlier, 697 00:41:03,666 --> 00:41:06,199 but we need to be vigilant, 698 00:41:06,266 --> 00:41:10,766 because the threat from asteroids is not going away. 699 00:41:12,065 --> 00:41:13,543 Apart from climate change, 700 00:41:13,567 --> 00:41:17,141 asteroid strikes are, in my opinion, the most dangerous 701 00:41:17,166 --> 00:41:18,567 thing to life on Earth. 702 00:41:19,867 --> 00:41:21,766 A lot of the times the question I get is, 703 00:41:21,867 --> 00:41:23,766 "What are the chances of this happening?" 704 00:41:23,867 --> 00:41:26,567 And they don't like the answer because I say 100 percent. 705 00:41:28,699 --> 00:41:29,867 It takes time. 706 00:41:29,900 --> 00:41:33,000 It may not be for a week, a month, a year, a century. 707 00:41:33,065 --> 00:41:35,467 But studying these asteroids informs us on 708 00:41:35,567 --> 00:41:37,400 what we can do to prevent an impact. 709 00:41:39,000 --> 00:41:41,242 There are a lot of natural disasters that we can do 710 00:41:41,266 --> 00:41:41,675 nothing about... Earthquakes, hurricanes, 711 00:41:41,699 --> 00:41:43,400 nothing about... Earthquakes, hurricanes, 712 00:41:43,467 --> 00:41:44,344 that sort of thing. 713 00:41:44,367 --> 00:41:46,567 Here is something way more devastating 714 00:41:46,666 --> 00:41:50,400 than any of those, and we can prevent them. 715 00:41:50,467 --> 00:41:52,599 So we have to keep our eyes on 716 00:41:52,666 --> 00:41:54,766 the prize and our eyes on the skies. 56505

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