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This show is fictitious.
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There is not actually
an asteroid
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headed to New York City today,
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but this is based on
simulations of such an event.
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00:00:15,567 --> 00:00:18,600
We run simulations of
fictional asteroid strike
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00:00:18,667 --> 00:00:21,600
to prepare for
the worst-case scenario.
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00:00:22,766 --> 00:00:26,265
November 4, 2029.
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00:00:26,367 --> 00:00:29,100
We face a countdown
to catastrophe.
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A giant asteroid hurtles
towards Earth.
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It's heading straight for
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the eastern seaboard of
the United States.
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00:00:43,600 --> 00:00:47,942
The space rock could wipe out
an entire city
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00:00:47,966 --> 00:00:50,265
and cause
widespread devastation.
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00:00:53,500 --> 00:00:57,066
Can Earth survive?
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00:01:12,165 --> 00:01:16,299
New York City, November 4, 2029.
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The deserted metropolis waited
for the asteroid to strike.
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A giant space rock entered
the atmosphere,
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heading straight for the eastern
seaboard of the USA.
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Heading straight for the eastern
seaboard of the USA.
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00:01:32,667 --> 00:01:34,466
As it comes through
the atmosphere,
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00:01:34,567 --> 00:01:37,643
we would see something as
bright as the sun getting
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brighter and brighter
and brighter.
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00:01:41,165 --> 00:01:44,343
At speeds of maybe
20 kilometers per second or so.
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00:01:44,366 --> 00:01:46,799
That's something like
18 times faster than
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the speed of a bullet
coming out of a rifle.
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This asteroid was headed towards
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00:01:53,165 --> 00:01:56,241
the most populous city
in America,
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00:01:56,265 --> 00:01:58,766
and when it impacts,
it would deliver
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00:01:58,866 --> 00:01:59,975
more energy than
1,000 Hiroshima nuclear bombs.
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00:02:00,000 --> 00:02:03,900
More energy than
1,000 Hiroshima nuclear bombs.
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00:02:14,567 --> 00:02:17,141
It would level some of the most
expensive real estate
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00:02:17,165 --> 00:02:19,000
in the world in seconds.
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00:02:27,667 --> 00:02:29,975
There would be a crater where
Central Park used to be.
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00:02:30,000 --> 00:02:32,120
There would be a crater where
Central Park used to be.
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00:02:33,667 --> 00:02:36,800
I actually don't even like
thinking about this,
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00:02:37,866 --> 00:02:41,265
of how horrible it would be.
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00:02:41,366 --> 00:02:44,000
This is beyond the
worst disaster
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the world has...
Would have ever faced.
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00:02:45,766 --> 00:02:47,866
There's nothing in our history
that would have
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00:02:47,966 --> 00:02:52,466
done this much damage so
quickly and so devastatingly.
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00:03:01,667 --> 00:03:03,443
The story of the asteroid
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00:03:03,467 --> 00:03:05,742
and the Earth's fight back
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00:03:05,766 --> 00:03:08,500
started seven years ago,
here in Arizona.
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00:03:14,467 --> 00:03:16,699
September 2022,
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the Catalina Sky Survey.
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00:03:22,000 --> 00:03:24,699
Guardian of heavens
Greg Leonard drives
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00:03:24,766 --> 00:03:28,099
to Mount Lemmon Observatory
near Tucson.
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00:03:28,165 --> 00:03:29,975
He's on the hunt
for asteroids and comets.
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00:03:30,000 --> 00:03:31,639
He's on the hunt
for asteroids and comets.
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00:03:32,766 --> 00:03:36,699
We are the watchers of
the skies for the planet.
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00:03:36,766 --> 00:03:41,000
We literally represent
the first line of defense
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00:03:41,066 --> 00:03:44,165
against potentially
incoming asteroids,
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00:03:44,265 --> 00:03:48,099
and I want to emphasize
the words planetary defense.
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This is not in the benefit
for one nation.
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This is for the entire planet.
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00:03:53,966 --> 00:03:56,366
Greg takes a series of images
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00:03:56,466 --> 00:03:59,866
over a 20-minute period.
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00:03:59,966 --> 00:03:59,977
Stars don't move in the photos,
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00:04:00,001 --> 00:04:02,567
Stars don't move in the photos,
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00:04:03,567 --> 00:04:06,066
but asteroids and comets do.
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00:04:08,165 --> 00:04:10,500
A-ha.
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00:04:10,567 --> 00:04:12,643
We can see four points of light
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00:04:12,667 --> 00:04:16,343
tracking across the background
of the stationary stars.
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00:04:16,367 --> 00:04:21,643
This one is moving very
quickly across the sky.
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00:04:21,667 --> 00:04:22,699
So this tells me
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00:04:22,766 --> 00:04:26,766
this is a real
near-Earth asteroid candidate.
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00:04:29,667 --> 00:04:29,976
It's one of over 27,000
near-Earth asteroids,
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00:04:30,000 --> 00:04:33,141
It's one of over 27,000
near-Earth asteroids,
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00:04:33,165 --> 00:04:37,000
or NEAs for short,
discovered by the early 2020s.
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00:04:40,766 --> 00:04:44,100
The huge gravity of Jupiter
can rip space rocks
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00:04:44,165 --> 00:04:47,066
from their home
in the asteroid belt.
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00:04:48,766 --> 00:04:51,766
Some race outwards,
away from the sun.
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00:04:53,600 --> 00:04:58,367
NEAs head inwards,
occasionally towards Earth.
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00:05:00,100 --> 00:05:03,800
We didn't know it
back in September of 2022,
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00:05:03,867 --> 00:05:06,343
but these were our first images
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00:05:06,367 --> 00:05:08,867
of a deadly incoming asteroid.
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00:05:10,466 --> 00:05:14,141
It's relatively close
to Earth's neighborhood.
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00:05:14,165 --> 00:05:16,699
We don't know exactly
how far it is yet,
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00:05:16,766 --> 00:05:20,242
but it's close enough where
its motion across the sky
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00:05:20,266 --> 00:05:21,500
appears rapid.
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00:05:24,367 --> 00:05:26,942
The discovery
of an NEA set a series
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00:05:26,966 --> 00:05:29,667
of planet protection protocols
in motion.
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00:05:32,165 --> 00:05:35,141
Step one, enlist
a global team of experts
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00:05:35,165 --> 00:05:37,300
to investigate
the asteroid's orbit.
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00:05:41,667 --> 00:05:43,343
We have
some of the brightest minds,
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00:05:43,367 --> 00:05:44,567
some of the best telescopes,
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00:05:44,667 --> 00:05:46,165
some of
the biggest supercomputers
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00:05:46,266 --> 00:05:48,000
working to protect Earth,
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00:05:48,066 --> 00:05:50,141
collaborating
across language barriers,
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00:05:50,165 --> 00:05:53,165
across international
borders to protect humanity.
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00:05:54,966 --> 00:05:57,442
This international
planetary defense team
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00:05:57,466 --> 00:05:59,975
was tasked with discovering
if the distant object
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00:06:00,000 --> 00:06:01,742
was tasked with discovering
if the distant object
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00:06:01,766 --> 00:06:04,367
would become
a serious threat to Earth.
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00:06:07,399 --> 00:06:08,643
Their first job...
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00:06:08,666 --> 00:06:13,000
Determine if the NEA's orbit
would intersect with our own.
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00:06:14,666 --> 00:06:16,843
Orbits are
a little like roads, right?
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00:06:16,867 --> 00:06:18,867
You've got a path
that something follows,
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00:06:18,966 --> 00:06:21,165
and they can intersect,
you can have a crossroads.
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00:06:21,266 --> 00:06:23,543
Now, typically, if only one
object is there,
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00:06:23,567 --> 00:06:24,843
that's not a big deal,
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00:06:24,867 --> 00:06:26,742
but if you have two objects
approaching that intersection
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00:06:26,766 --> 00:06:28,766
at the same time,
they could collide,
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00:06:28,867 --> 00:06:29,975
and that's the danger
from asteroids.
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00:06:30,000 --> 00:06:31,439
And that's the danger
from asteroids.
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00:06:34,100 --> 00:06:35,266
The team of scientists
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00:06:35,367 --> 00:06:37,500
track the asteroid
for four months.
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00:06:39,567 --> 00:06:43,300
Over time,
you can build up observations.
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00:06:43,367 --> 00:06:48,000
You can gradually narrow down
the possible number of orbits,
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00:06:48,066 --> 00:06:53,242
then determine whether there's
any chance of a future impact,
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00:06:53,266 --> 00:06:55,667
but if the asteroid
is orbiting the sun,
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the Earth is orbiting the sun,
and there's this dance going on.
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Sometimes the asteroid
is near the Earth,
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Sometimes the asteroid
is near the Earth,
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and we can observe it,
it's bright.
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Other times the asteroid is
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00:07:05,367 --> 00:07:06,442
on the other side of the sun.
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We can't observe it at all.
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00:07:09,800 --> 00:07:10,899
We were lucky.
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00:07:11,000 --> 00:07:14,766
The asteroid was visible
throughout the fall of 2022.
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00:07:16,600 --> 00:07:20,300
However, our observations of
the space rock's orbit
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showed a very real possibility
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00:07:23,165 --> 00:07:26,399
that it would slam into Earth
in just seven years.
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Astronomers gave
the incoming asteroid
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a suitably appropriate name,
Apep.
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Apep was
the Egyptian god of chaos,
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so that's a fairly good name
for an asteroid
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that could hit the Earth
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00:07:47,466 --> 00:07:49,766
because that's exactly what
would happen.
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00:07:49,867 --> 00:07:52,367
You'd have chaos,
destruction, and death.
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00:08:01,300 --> 00:08:06,242
A catalog of devastation
to be
unleashed on Earth.
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00:08:06,266 --> 00:08:09,199
But just how bad would
the impact be?
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00:08:27,000 --> 00:08:29,500
January 2023.
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00:08:29,567 --> 00:08:32,866
Asteroid Apep was on
a collision course with Earth.
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00:08:34,767 --> 00:08:37,500
Step two in our
planetary defense...
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00:08:37,567 --> 00:08:41,500
Know your enemy and build up
a picture of the asteroid.
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00:08:42,899 --> 00:08:43,101
Apep was 1,800 feet wide,
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00:08:43,125 --> 00:08:45,100
Apep was 1,800 feet wide,
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00:08:45,165 --> 00:08:47,500
five times the length of
a football field.
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00:08:48,567 --> 00:08:52,767
Its huge size bumps it up into
a new category of asteroids.
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00:08:54,165 --> 00:08:56,042
Apep was what we refer to as
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a PHA, a potentially
hazardous asteroid.
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00:09:01,600 --> 00:09:02,767
We're talking about something
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00:09:02,866 --> 00:09:04,600
that is a third of a mile
across.
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This is enormous.
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00:09:08,799 --> 00:09:13,100
An 1,800-foot-wide asteroid is
about 112 million metric tons.
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00:09:13,125 --> 00:09:13,744
An 1,800-foot-wide asteroid is
about 112 million metric tons.
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00:09:13,768 --> 00:09:17,866
That's over 300 times the weight
of the Empire State Building.
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00:09:21,166 --> 00:09:23,366
Computer simulations
of the impact
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00:09:23,466 --> 00:09:27,767
of an asteroid that massive
hitting a city
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00:09:27,866 --> 00:09:31,567
revealed extraordinary levels
of destruction.
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An 1,800-foot-diameter asteroid,
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that would create a crater
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that's 3 or 4 miles across,
1,600 feet deep.
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00:09:42,567 --> 00:09:43,101
It would have a radiation
blast wave that
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It would have a radiation
blast wave that
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00:09:47,165 --> 00:09:51,142
would set things on fire
for about 20 miles,
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00:09:51,165 --> 00:09:54,399
but no sooner would things be
lit on fire,
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there would be
a 500-mile-an-hour wind
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radiating out,
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leveling buildings,
knocking down trees,
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00:10:02,000 --> 00:10:03,942
destroying highways.
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00:10:03,966 --> 00:10:08,000
100 miles away, you'd still feel
a magnitude seven earthquake.
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00:10:09,399 --> 00:10:12,000
It's not easy to say what is
going to kill you first.
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00:10:12,066 --> 00:10:13,100
It's probably going to be
simply the flash of energy.
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00:10:13,125 --> 00:10:15,299
It's probably going to be
simply the flash of energy.
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00:10:15,366 --> 00:10:18,799
There's so much heat from this
thing that you can be vaporized.
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If you somehow survived that,
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00:10:20,767 --> 00:10:22,700
then there's going to be
the blast wave that will
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pulverize anything in its path.
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00:10:26,000 --> 00:10:28,000
To build an accurate simulation,
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00:10:28,066 --> 00:10:32,100
the scientists used
more than size and mass.
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00:10:32,165 --> 00:10:34,899
They also studied
its composition
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00:10:35,000 --> 00:10:36,500
and the speed of its orbit.
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00:10:38,265 --> 00:10:40,842
You need to know what
an asteroid is made of,
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the speed of that asteroid,
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how large it is in order
to understand,
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00:10:43,125 --> 00:10:45,600
how large it is in order
to understand,
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00:10:45,667 --> 00:10:47,767
will it make it through
Earth's atmosphere,
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00:10:47,866 --> 00:10:50,466
and what might the impact
effects be?
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00:10:52,767 --> 00:10:57,643
Asteroids vary in
composition and structure.
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Some are loose collections
of small rocks,
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others rocky and compact.
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00:11:06,667 --> 00:11:09,842
The most dangerous are metallic.
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00:11:09,866 --> 00:11:12,500
A metal asteroid can be five
times as dense
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00:11:12,567 --> 00:11:13,101
as some of
the lower density asteroids,
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00:11:13,125 --> 00:11:14,667
as some of
the lower density asteroids,
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00:11:14,767 --> 00:11:17,543
and so for the same speeds
on the same orbits
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00:11:17,567 --> 00:11:20,066
they pack way more punch
when it comes to an impact.
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00:11:24,700 --> 00:11:25,743
If you want to see exactly
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00:11:25,767 --> 00:11:28,265
what a metallic asteroid can do,
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00:11:28,366 --> 00:11:31,200
go no farther than
Barringer Crater in Arizona.
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00:11:31,265 --> 00:11:34,042
Now that crater is about
a mile across,
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00:11:34,066 --> 00:11:38,643
and the meteor that made it was
only about 150 feet across.
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00:11:38,667 --> 00:11:42,399
Arizona, 50,000 years ago.
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00:11:42,466 --> 00:11:43,101
The last major asteroid strike
on present day North America,
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00:11:43,125 --> 00:11:46,667
The last major asteroid strike
on present day North America,
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00:11:48,567 --> 00:11:50,842
a tiny metallic space rock
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00:11:50,866 --> 00:11:54,899
hits the ground
at 25,000 miles an hour,
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00:11:55,000 --> 00:12:00,366
releasing energy equivalent to
2.5 million tons of TNT.
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00:12:02,500 --> 00:12:06,866
Scale that up to the size of
1,800-foot Apep,
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00:12:06,966 --> 00:12:10,466
and it would create a blast
wave the size of Delaware.
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00:12:11,466 --> 00:12:13,100
If Apep were a metal
asteroid, it would tear through
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00:12:13,125 --> 00:12:14,342
If Apep were a metal
asteroid, it would tear through
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00:12:14,366 --> 00:12:16,643
the atmosphere
like a cosmic bullet.
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00:12:16,667 --> 00:12:19,200
In a modern city,
without warning,
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00:12:19,265 --> 00:12:21,000
it could kill a lot of people.
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00:12:23,000 --> 00:12:25,265
But although
they're very dangerous,
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00:12:25,366 --> 00:12:30,466
they're also very rare.
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00:12:30,567 --> 00:12:34,543
More common are rubble piles,
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00:12:34,567 --> 00:12:39,066
loose collections of small
rocks held together by gravity.
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00:12:46,667 --> 00:12:49,000
Rubble pile is kind of
the perfect name for them,
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00:12:49,100 --> 00:12:51,200
but you can think of them as
like a literally
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00:12:51,265 --> 00:12:54,767
a pile of stuff out of a dump
truck in your driveway,
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00:12:54,866 --> 00:12:57,265
but if you take that and you
put that in space,
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00:12:57,366 --> 00:12:59,342
they don't have much gravity
but they have enough to stay
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00:12:59,366 --> 00:13:00,643
bound to each other,
218
00:13:00,667 --> 00:13:03,100
and that's your rubble
pile asteroid.
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00:13:03,166 --> 00:13:07,567
They are just barely holding
on to themselves.
220
00:13:07,667 --> 00:13:11,166
If you were to come and just
apply sufficient gravity,
221
00:13:11,265 --> 00:13:13,100
you could rip it apart.
222
00:13:13,125 --> 00:13:14,567
You could rip it apart.
223
00:13:18,366 --> 00:13:21,166
Pressure and heat from
entering our atmosphere
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00:13:21,265 --> 00:13:24,966
can also tear a rubble
pile asteroid to pieces,
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00:13:28,866 --> 00:13:31,866
but that can be just
as dangerous to a city below.
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00:13:34,700 --> 00:13:36,142
The breakup of an asteroid in
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00:13:36,165 --> 00:13:38,667
the upper atmosphere is...
Is pretty devastating.
228
00:13:38,767 --> 00:13:41,399
It's like a nuclear weapon
going off in the atmosphere,
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00:13:41,466 --> 00:13:43,100
flattening buildings
and breaking windows.
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00:13:43,125 --> 00:13:44,000
Flattening buildings
and breaking windows.
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00:13:44,100 --> 00:13:45,567
There are going
to be mass casualties
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00:13:45,667 --> 00:13:46,799
from an event like that
233
00:13:46,866 --> 00:13:49,265
due to just the injuries
from flying glass and debris.
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00:13:54,567 --> 00:13:59,265
To discover what type of
asteroid Apep belonged to,
235
00:13:59,366 --> 00:14:01,265
the planetary protection team
236
00:14:01,366 --> 00:14:04,366
train their telescopes
onto the space rock.
237
00:14:07,567 --> 00:14:10,342
Analysis revealed that Apep
was a rocky,
238
00:14:10,366 --> 00:14:13,100
carbonaceous chondrite asteroid,
or C-type for short.
239
00:14:13,125 --> 00:14:15,205
Carbonaceous chondrite asteroid,
or C-type for short.
240
00:14:17,066 --> 00:14:19,142
C-type asteroids like Apep
241
00:14:19,166 --> 00:14:21,700
are less dense
than metal asteroids,
242
00:14:21,767 --> 00:14:24,767
but more solid than
rubble piles.
243
00:14:24,866 --> 00:14:27,100
If a big enough C-type asteroid
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00:14:27,166 --> 00:14:29,241
penetrates the Earth's
atmosphere,
245
00:14:29,265 --> 00:14:32,299
it has the chance to make it
all the way down to the surface.
246
00:14:32,366 --> 00:14:35,165
It doesn't necessarily burn up
in the atmosphere.
247
00:14:43,000 --> 00:14:43,101
Apep's size, mass, and
composition told us
248
00:14:43,125 --> 00:14:46,442
Apep's size, mass, and
composition told us
249
00:14:46,466 --> 00:14:50,100
it would punch through our
atmosphere and hit the surface.
250
00:14:54,100 --> 00:14:57,567
The final piece of information
needed to accurately predict
251
00:14:57,667 --> 00:15:00,265
the true amount of damage
from the impact
252
00:15:00,366 --> 00:15:04,466
was Apep's kinetic energy,
the amount of energy
253
00:15:04,567 --> 00:15:06,866
the asteroid would punch
into the ground.
254
00:15:09,166 --> 00:15:13,000
The kinetic energy of an object
depends on the mass,
255
00:15:13,066 --> 00:15:13,101
and it depends even
more strongly on the speed.
256
00:15:13,125 --> 00:15:16,543
And it depends even
more strongly on the speed.
257
00:15:16,567 --> 00:15:19,567
More mass creates more
kinetic energy,
258
00:15:19,667 --> 00:15:23,866
but more velocity will
increase the kinetic energy by
259
00:15:23,966 --> 00:15:25,466
a squared factor.
260
00:15:25,567 --> 00:15:28,799
For example, if something has
twice the velocity,
261
00:15:28,866 --> 00:15:32,165
it will have four times
the same energy.
262
00:15:32,265 --> 00:15:36,200
Scientists calculated how
much energy Apep,
263
00:15:36,265 --> 00:15:39,643
weighing in at 123 million tons
264
00:15:39,667 --> 00:15:42,200
and traveling at 40,000
miles an hour,
265
00:15:42,265 --> 00:15:43,101
would transfer into the Earth.
266
00:15:43,125 --> 00:15:45,543
Would transfer into the Earth.
267
00:15:45,567 --> 00:15:47,600
So what kind of energies
were involved here?
268
00:15:47,667 --> 00:15:50,799
Uh, you know,
1,800-foot diameter asteroid.
269
00:15:50,866 --> 00:15:53,000
It's 112 million tons,
270
00:15:53,066 --> 00:15:55,866
and it's traveling
at 40,000 miles per hour.
271
00:15:55,966 --> 00:15:57,142
That's something on the order of
272
00:15:57,165 --> 00:15:59,643
10 to the 19th joules of energy,
273
00:15:59,667 --> 00:16:02,265
a one followed by 19 zeros.
274
00:16:10,265 --> 00:16:13,100
1.8 times 10 to the 19 joules
is equivalent to 5,000 megatons.
275
00:16:13,125 --> 00:16:16,299
1.8 times 10 to the 19 joules
is equivalent to 5,000 megatons.
276
00:16:16,366 --> 00:16:18,000
Take a one megaton nuke,
277
00:16:18,066 --> 00:16:23,342
a substantial nuclear weapon,
and then blow up 5,000 of them.
278
00:16:23,366 --> 00:16:27,200
That is roughly the same
amount as all the nuclear
279
00:16:27,265 --> 00:16:28,366
weapons on Earth,
280
00:16:28,466 --> 00:16:29,866
detonating all at once.
281
00:16:35,165 --> 00:16:38,000
A strike this large would
affect the whole planet.
282
00:16:40,700 --> 00:16:43,000
This would have global impacts.
283
00:16:43,100 --> 00:16:43,100
We would have to deal with
the fallout,
284
00:16:43,124 --> 00:16:44,543
We would have to deal with
the fallout,
285
00:16:44,567 --> 00:16:47,299
the literal fallout
from this event for...
286
00:16:47,366 --> 00:16:49,165
For potentially 1,000 years.
287
00:16:53,200 --> 00:16:55,567
Spring, 2023.
288
00:16:55,667 --> 00:16:58,142
We had two choices...
289
00:16:58,165 --> 00:17:02,200
Do nothing and face
a planet-changing catastrophe,
290
00:17:02,265 --> 00:17:04,700
or fight back.
291
00:17:04,767 --> 00:17:07,165
We chose to take on Apep.
292
00:17:08,666 --> 00:17:11,542
It was the first time
in human history
293
00:17:11,567 --> 00:17:13,101
that we might actually be able
to prevent a natural disaster
294
00:17:13,125 --> 00:17:15,142
that we might actually be able
to prevent a natural disaster
295
00:17:15,165 --> 00:17:16,666
from happening.
296
00:17:16,767 --> 00:17:20,142
We could plan and launch
a response mission,
297
00:17:20,165 --> 00:17:21,685
so we don't have
to get out of the way.
298
00:17:21,767 --> 00:17:23,900
Make it get
out of the way instead.
299
00:17:26,866 --> 00:17:29,700
The mission's objective
was simple...
300
00:17:29,767 --> 00:17:33,467
Stop the asteroid,
and save the world.
301
00:17:35,767 --> 00:17:38,542
We can't superglue
an earthquake fault shut.
302
00:17:38,567 --> 00:17:41,467
We can't cork volcanoes,
303
00:17:41,567 --> 00:17:43,101
but planning
for an asteroid impact
304
00:17:43,125 --> 00:17:44,343
but planning
for an asteroid impact
305
00:17:44,366 --> 00:17:46,099
is something we really could do.
306
00:17:55,366 --> 00:17:57,599
June 2023.
307
00:17:59,599 --> 00:18:04,666
A large asteroid
was headed towards Earth.
308
00:18:04,767 --> 00:18:09,099
It was predicted to strike on
November 4, 2029.
309
00:18:16,467 --> 00:18:17,567
To protect our planet,
310
00:18:17,599 --> 00:18:18,477
A team of scientists plan to
deflect the asteroid.
311
00:18:18,500 --> 00:18:25,366
A team of scientists plan to
deflect the asteroid.
312
00:18:25,467 --> 00:18:27,666
An 1,800-foot wide asteroid
313
00:18:27,767 --> 00:18:29,467
was headed towards the Earth.
314
00:18:29,567 --> 00:18:34,567
We needed it to go in
literally any other direction.
315
00:18:34,666 --> 00:18:37,666
So how could we
push Apep off course?
316
00:18:39,165 --> 00:18:44,866
Scientists found a clue in
the asteroid belt.
317
00:18:47,900 --> 00:18:48,477
Sometimes the lumps
of space debris collide
318
00:18:48,500 --> 00:18:51,400
Sometimes the lumps
of space debris collide
319
00:18:51,467 --> 00:18:54,542
and change their trajectory.
320
00:18:54,567 --> 00:18:59,700
Maybe we could replicate this
and deflect Apep.
321
00:18:59,767 --> 00:19:02,200
We could try to deflect the
asteroid and change its orbit
322
00:19:02,266 --> 00:19:04,599
so that it actually
misses the Earth.
323
00:19:04,666 --> 00:19:06,400
If you do it early enough,
324
00:19:06,467 --> 00:19:10,400
it may not be much, less than
half a millimeter per second,
325
00:19:10,467 --> 00:19:12,942
but that is enough.
326
00:19:12,967 --> 00:19:17,799
These asteroids travel for
millions of miles, and so over
327
00:19:17,866 --> 00:19:18,477
the course of days, weeks,
328
00:19:18,500 --> 00:19:19,643
the course of days, weeks,
329
00:19:19,666 --> 00:19:24,000
months, and years, it will have
a radically different orbit.
330
00:19:25,066 --> 00:19:26,567
Sounds simple.
331
00:19:26,666 --> 00:19:30,000
Send up a rocket with
a robotic space probe,
332
00:19:30,066 --> 00:19:34,567
travel millions of miles,
and knock Apep away from Earth.
333
00:19:35,866 --> 00:19:36,866
Piece of cake.
334
00:19:38,866 --> 00:19:39,933
In the movies,
335
00:19:40,000 --> 00:19:42,165
when there's a threatening
asteroid that's found,
336
00:19:42,266 --> 00:19:45,942
there's always a rocket on
the pad ready to go after that,
337
00:19:45,967 --> 00:19:48,476
and it's not the case
in real life.
338
00:19:48,500 --> 00:19:48,767
And it's not the case
in real life.
339
00:19:48,866 --> 00:19:51,142
It takes years
to design the mission,
340
00:19:51,165 --> 00:19:53,400
to build the satellite,
to launch it,
341
00:19:53,467 --> 00:19:54,843
and then it has to get there,
342
00:19:54,866 --> 00:19:57,866
and that might be millions
of miles away from Earth.
343
00:19:59,000 --> 00:20:01,366
Fortunately,
Earth had a head start.
344
00:20:02,700 --> 00:20:05,000
We detected Apep early,
345
00:20:07,366 --> 00:20:12,041
and we'd already built
an asteroid deflector called
346
00:20:12,066 --> 00:20:15,241
the Double Asteroid
Redirection Test,
347
00:20:15,266 --> 00:20:17,500
or DART for short.
348
00:20:19,500 --> 00:20:24,099
In 2021 we sent DART
6.8 million miles
349
00:20:24,165 --> 00:20:27,700
to rendezvous with
an asteroid called Didymos.
350
00:20:28,866 --> 00:20:31,500
Didymos posed
no threat to Earth,
351
00:20:31,567 --> 00:20:33,967
but allowed us
to test the technology.
352
00:20:35,467 --> 00:20:36,866
The asteroid called Didymos
353
00:20:36,967 --> 00:20:40,200
has a small moon asteroid
going around it.
354
00:20:40,266 --> 00:20:41,343
The point of the DART mission
355
00:20:41,366 --> 00:20:44,200
was to send an impactor
into this little moon
356
00:20:44,266 --> 00:20:47,099
and see how much we nudge
it off the orbit that it's in.
357
00:20:48,666 --> 00:20:50,942
Lessons learned from DART
358
00:20:50,967 --> 00:20:53,200
would inspire a new mission.
359
00:20:56,066 --> 00:20:58,742
November 2025.
360
00:20:58,767 --> 00:21:01,442
We launched the DAAFE mission...
361
00:21:01,467 --> 00:21:06,041
Deflect Apep away from Earth.
362
00:21:06,066 --> 00:21:09,366
This wasn't a test run to
a safe asteroid.
363
00:21:09,467 --> 00:21:12,942
This was the real deal,
a mission to save our planet.
364
00:21:12,967 --> 00:21:17,099
It was an enormous
technical challenge,
365
00:21:17,165 --> 00:21:18,476
and we had no idea
if it would work.
366
00:21:18,500 --> 00:21:20,000
And we had no idea
if it would work.
367
00:21:21,200 --> 00:21:25,000
When you think about
a spacecraft going from Earth
368
00:21:25,066 --> 00:21:28,099
millions of miles away
to hit an asteroid
369
00:21:28,165 --> 00:21:29,742
at an exact point in time,
370
00:21:29,767 --> 00:21:30,942
at an exact point in space.
371
00:21:30,967 --> 00:21:33,343
It's really
the ultimate bullseye.
372
00:21:33,366 --> 00:21:37,099
It's like trying to hit one
bullet with another bullet
373
00:21:37,165 --> 00:21:39,366
launched from the other
side of a continent.
374
00:21:41,666 --> 00:21:43,666
November 2028.
375
00:21:44,767 --> 00:21:48,476
After three years in space,
DAAFE arrived at Apep.
376
00:21:48,500 --> 00:21:50,460
After three years in space,
DAAFE arrived at Apep.
377
00:21:52,467 --> 00:21:54,343
This was our last chance.
378
00:21:54,366 --> 00:21:56,000
This was our only chance.
379
00:21:59,266 --> 00:22:00,242
The kinetic impactor
380
00:22:00,267 --> 00:22:04,165
smashed into Apep
at 14,000 miles an hour.
381
00:22:10,799 --> 00:22:14,200
On Earth, telescopes and radar
tracked the collision.
382
00:22:15,799 --> 00:22:16,942
Did it work?
383
00:22:16,967 --> 00:22:18,476
Did we push the asteroid
off course?
384
00:22:18,500 --> 00:22:20,467
Did we push the asteroid
off course?
385
00:22:20,567 --> 00:22:22,467
At first glance, the
mission worked.
386
00:22:22,567 --> 00:22:25,767
We deflected Apep away from us.
387
00:22:28,000 --> 00:22:29,666
It looked like the
mission worked.
388
00:22:32,799 --> 00:22:34,643
As an astronomer, and, you know,
389
00:22:34,666 --> 00:22:36,866
a human who has to live
on this planet,
390
00:22:36,967 --> 00:22:38,299
I was very happy, right?
391
00:22:38,366 --> 00:22:41,000
We've just literally
saved the world.
392
00:22:41,066 --> 00:22:43,666
But the happiness
was short-lived.
393
00:22:44,767 --> 00:22:46,000
There was a problem.
394
00:22:46,099 --> 00:22:48,476
The collision had pushed Apep
away from Earth,
395
00:22:48,500 --> 00:22:50,299
The collision had pushed Apep
away from Earth,
396
00:22:53,266 --> 00:22:57,666
but it also sheared off
a 300-foot chunk of rock.
397
00:22:59,366 --> 00:23:03,400
This smaller asteroid,
called Apep 2.0,
398
00:23:03,467 --> 00:23:05,165
could still be
a significant threat.
399
00:23:08,266 --> 00:23:13,099
A 300-foot chunk of rock
is still very, very large.
400
00:23:13,165 --> 00:23:14,666
300 feet wide.
401
00:23:14,767 --> 00:23:17,000
That's almost a football field.
402
00:23:18,099 --> 00:23:18,477
So the important things
we needed to know...
403
00:23:18,500 --> 00:23:19,942
So the important things
we needed to know...
404
00:23:19,967 --> 00:23:21,567
Was it going to hit us?
405
00:23:22,599 --> 00:23:24,799
And if so, where is it going
to hit us?
406
00:23:26,900 --> 00:23:31,041
March 2029, we got our answer.
407
00:23:31,066 --> 00:23:33,266
Its point of impact...
408
00:23:33,366 --> 00:23:36,000
The east coast
of the United States,
409
00:23:37,599 --> 00:23:40,767
with New York City
in the firing line.
410
00:23:43,500 --> 00:23:46,066
A smaller chunk headed
for New York City.
411
00:23:47,200 --> 00:23:48,476
This was
the worst-case scenario.
412
00:23:48,500 --> 00:23:50,066
This was
the worst-case scenario.
413
00:23:59,000 --> 00:24:00,142
I want to emphasize,
414
00:24:00,165 --> 00:24:02,442
there's no asteroid
headed toward New York tonight.
415
00:24:02,467 --> 00:24:05,366
This is just a discussion about
416
00:24:05,467 --> 00:24:07,366
what this process would be like.
417
00:24:15,567 --> 00:24:16,843
In 2028,
418
00:24:16,866 --> 00:24:19,900
we tried to deflect
Apep away from Earth.
419
00:24:22,165 --> 00:24:23,974
The mission wasn't
a complete success.
420
00:24:23,999 --> 00:24:26,767
The mission wasn't
a complete success.
421
00:24:26,866 --> 00:24:28,742
Yes, we managed to
actually divert
422
00:24:28,767 --> 00:24:31,500
the large asteroid away from
hitting the Earth,
423
00:24:31,567 --> 00:24:34,366
but in doing so, we broke off
a clump big enough
424
00:24:34,467 --> 00:24:37,299
to be very dangerous heading
toward the eastern seaboard.
425
00:24:39,666 --> 00:24:44,299
June 2029,
five months to impact.
426
00:24:46,366 --> 00:24:48,866
The future looked bleak for
New York,
427
00:24:48,967 --> 00:24:50,767
but it wasn't the time
to give up.
428
00:24:52,000 --> 00:24:53,643
They reassessed an idea
429
00:24:53,666 --> 00:24:53,976
first suggested to destroy
the original 1,800-foot Apep,
430
00:24:54,000 --> 00:25:00,041
first suggested to destroy
the original 1,800-foot Apep,
431
00:25:00,066 --> 00:25:01,467
a nuclear strike.
432
00:25:03,799 --> 00:25:05,241
It worked in Armageddon.
433
00:25:05,266 --> 00:25:07,266
Maybe it would work in
real life.
434
00:25:08,599 --> 00:25:12,266
However, studies revealed
that nuking an asteroid
435
00:25:12,366 --> 00:25:16,442
wasn't as simple as it looks
in a Hollywood movie.
436
00:25:16,467 --> 00:25:17,467
Hey, let's blow it up.
437
00:25:17,567 --> 00:25:18,643
Let's nuke it, right?
438
00:25:18,666 --> 00:25:20,643
Well, instead of one
big problem,
439
00:25:20,666 --> 00:25:22,500
now you have
slightly smaller problems,
440
00:25:22,567 --> 00:25:23,974
and they're radioactive,
by the way.
441
00:25:23,999 --> 00:25:24,900
And they're radioactive,
by the way.
442
00:25:25,000 --> 00:25:26,165
So you don't want to do that.
443
00:25:28,000 --> 00:25:30,500
Computer simulations revealed
444
00:25:30,567 --> 00:25:32,142
that even the world's largest
445
00:25:32,165 --> 00:25:36,343
nuclear weapon had only
1 percent of the energy needed
446
00:25:36,366 --> 00:25:40,266
to destroy the original
1,800-foot Apep.
447
00:25:42,165 --> 00:25:46,099
We needed the world's most
powerful nuclear weapon
448
00:25:46,165 --> 00:25:50,700
and 99 of its best friends,
launch them all simultaneously,
449
00:25:50,767 --> 00:25:53,974
and have them simultaneously
hit the asteroid.
450
00:25:53,999 --> 00:25:54,200
And have them simultaneously
hit the asteroid.
451
00:25:54,266 --> 00:25:57,599
It was simply beyond our
technological capabilities.
452
00:26:00,299 --> 00:26:02,442
Fortunately,
thanks to the DAAFE mission,
453
00:26:02,467 --> 00:26:06,567
we only had to take out
the 300-foot Apep 2.0.
454
00:26:12,099 --> 00:26:15,165
Could we blow the smaller
asteroid out of the sky?
455
00:26:19,099 --> 00:26:22,666
Maybe, but launching
a nuclear Hail Mary
456
00:26:22,767 --> 00:26:23,974
would be very controversial.
457
00:26:23,999 --> 00:26:25,118
Would be very controversial.
458
00:26:26,500 --> 00:26:31,142
Nuclear devices
are the most powerful,
459
00:26:31,165 --> 00:26:32,843
really, one of the
most emotional
460
00:26:32,866 --> 00:26:35,900
things that humans have
ever invented.
461
00:26:39,767 --> 00:26:43,299
They are the most
powerful tool in our toolbox.
462
00:26:43,366 --> 00:26:46,366
We've got a hammer,
and it's a very big hammer,
463
00:26:46,467 --> 00:26:49,767
but there are a lot of
concerns with them,
464
00:26:49,866 --> 00:26:53,266
so they cannot be
tested in space,
465
00:26:53,366 --> 00:26:53,976
according to international law.
466
00:26:54,000 --> 00:26:55,240
According to international law.
467
00:26:56,567 --> 00:26:59,767
Without being able
to test nukes in space,
468
00:26:59,866 --> 00:27:01,666
they were considered
too big a risk,
469
00:27:06,099 --> 00:27:10,165
but New York had one final
potential savior,
470
00:27:11,400 --> 00:27:13,165
the Earth itself.
471
00:27:16,900 --> 00:27:20,000
2013, Chelyabinsk, Russia.
472
00:27:21,599 --> 00:27:23,974
An asteroid blew up
in the atmosphere.
473
00:27:23,999 --> 00:27:25,479
An asteroid blew up
in the atmosphere.
474
00:27:26,599 --> 00:27:28,742
It didn't make it all the way
to the surface,
475
00:27:28,767 --> 00:27:31,467
and the people in Chelyabinsk
are very lucky because of that.
476
00:27:33,099 --> 00:27:36,099
The 60-foot-wide
Chelyabinsk asteroid
477
00:27:36,165 --> 00:27:38,165
was rocky like Apep,
478
00:27:39,000 --> 00:27:41,000
and it moved
at a similar velocity,
479
00:27:41,099 --> 00:27:43,000
around 40,000 miles an hour,
480
00:27:44,866 --> 00:27:50,599
but it met its match when it
entered Earth's atmosphere.
481
00:27:50,666 --> 00:27:52,666
Earth's atmosphere
doesn't look like much.
482
00:27:52,767 --> 00:27:53,974
You think, oh, it's just air,
it doesn't matter,
483
00:27:53,999 --> 00:27:54,666
You think, oh, it's just air,
it doesn't matter,
484
00:27:54,767 --> 00:27:57,343
but all of those molecules
actually exert pressure
485
00:27:57,366 --> 00:27:58,866
on the front edge
of the asteroid,
486
00:27:58,967 --> 00:28:02,241
slowing it down
and heating it up.
487
00:28:02,266 --> 00:28:03,366
Rock heated up
488
00:28:03,467 --> 00:28:07,767
and began to crumble and explode
as it came through.
489
00:28:07,866 --> 00:28:10,542
The midair explosion,
called an airburst,
490
00:28:10,567 --> 00:28:15,165
released more energy
than 440,000 tons of TNT.
491
00:28:21,500 --> 00:28:23,767
The shockwave traveled
100 miles,
492
00:28:24,799 --> 00:28:27,299
damaging 7,000 buildings
493
00:28:27,366 --> 00:28:29,266
and injuring 1,500 people.
494
00:28:30,700 --> 00:28:33,200
But a ground strike
hitting a city
495
00:28:33,266 --> 00:28:34,467
would have been a lot worse.
496
00:28:42,299 --> 00:28:46,500
Apep 2.0 was five times larger
than the Chelyabinsk Rock.
497
00:28:48,700 --> 00:28:50,366
Would it break up during its
498
00:28:50,467 --> 00:28:53,866
10-second trip down
through the atmosphere,
499
00:28:53,967 --> 00:28:53,976
or would it pierce
right through?
500
00:28:54,000 --> 00:28:58,366
Or would it pierce
right through?
501
00:28:58,467 --> 00:29:01,500
The planetary defense team
ran simulations.
502
00:29:03,666 --> 00:29:07,000
As that comes through
Earth's atmosphere,
503
00:29:07,099 --> 00:29:10,000
some of that hot air can get
into the cracks.
504
00:29:11,066 --> 00:29:14,467
Friction and pressure
would heat Apep 2.0's
505
00:29:14,567 --> 00:29:17,866
surface to thousands of
degrees Fahrenheit.
506
00:29:19,099 --> 00:29:22,000
At those temperatures,
even rock burns.
507
00:29:23,299 --> 00:29:23,976
We would see this
flaming monster
508
00:29:24,000 --> 00:29:26,467
We would see this
flaming monster
509
00:29:26,567 --> 00:29:30,742
of death coming racing
through our atmosphere.
510
00:29:30,767 --> 00:29:34,165
There are gonna be pieces of
debris vaporizing
511
00:29:34,266 --> 00:29:35,542
and coming off of it.
512
00:29:35,567 --> 00:29:37,666
So you get these flashes of
light that happen
513
00:29:37,767 --> 00:29:39,343
one after another... pop, pop,
pop, pop, pop, pop, pop,
514
00:29:39,366 --> 00:29:40,900
as these things are blowing up.
515
00:29:46,666 --> 00:29:48,041
The computer simulations
516
00:29:48,066 --> 00:29:50,000
showed that the extra bulk of
517
00:29:50,099 --> 00:29:53,767
Apep 2.0 would stop it from
blowing up.
518
00:29:57,099 --> 00:29:59,799
Some of the asteroid would
blast away,
519
00:29:59,866 --> 00:30:01,900
but most of the space rock
520
00:30:02,000 --> 00:30:05,599
would reach the Earth's surface.
521
00:30:05,666 --> 00:30:07,799
So that close to the
actual impact,
522
00:30:07,866 --> 00:30:10,200
we pretty much just had to
hunker down and take it.
523
00:30:13,567 --> 00:30:16,400
The prospects for
New York City were grim.
524
00:30:18,099 --> 00:30:20,299
It was facing annihilation.
525
00:30:32,666 --> 00:30:35,165
October 2029.
526
00:30:35,266 --> 00:30:39,366
Three weeks to impact.
527
00:30:39,467 --> 00:30:42,799
For the citizens of the New York
metropolitan area,
528
00:30:42,866 --> 00:30:47,866
there was only one goal...
Get out of the firing line.
529
00:30:52,567 --> 00:30:53,567
Now we had to have
530
00:30:53,599 --> 00:30:56,000
the plans in place
to evacuate these cities.
531
00:30:56,023 --> 00:30:57,076
The plans in place
to evacuate these cities.
532
00:30:57,099 --> 00:31:01,500
It was a major emergency for
New York and its citizens.
533
00:31:01,567 --> 00:31:04,200
Time to move out of the way.
534
00:31:05,567 --> 00:31:08,467
To work out who
should evacuate and to where,
535
00:31:08,567 --> 00:31:10,599
Scientists ran detailed
projections
536
00:31:10,666 --> 00:31:14,400
of the potential blast area.
537
00:31:14,467 --> 00:31:17,467
There's an ellipse there that
we call the hazard ellipse that
538
00:31:17,567 --> 00:31:21,599
says somewhere in this area is
where the asteroid will hit.
539
00:31:21,666 --> 00:31:23,467
That means there's
a little wiggle room
540
00:31:23,567 --> 00:31:26,000
and a range of areas
that are in danger.
541
00:31:26,023 --> 00:31:27,584
And a range of areas
that are in danger.
542
00:31:28,066 --> 00:31:31,165
Based on the hazard
ellipse projections,
543
00:31:31,266 --> 00:31:34,099
the government issued
evacuation orders
544
00:31:34,165 --> 00:31:36,767
for the tri-state area,
545
00:31:36,866 --> 00:31:39,542
and as far south
as Philadelphia.
546
00:31:39,567 --> 00:31:43,643
It was the biggest evacuation
in US history.
547
00:31:43,666 --> 00:31:46,567
Millions were displaced.
548
00:31:46,666 --> 00:31:49,066
It was physically horrific.
549
00:31:51,299 --> 00:31:54,241
I live in the New York
metropolitan area.
550
00:31:54,266 --> 00:31:56,000
It was horrible for me and my
family and my friends,
551
00:31:56,023 --> 00:31:57,241
It was horrible for me and my
family and my friends,
552
00:31:57,266 --> 00:32:01,799
but we can't just sit here and
cross our fingers and hope that
553
00:32:01,866 --> 00:32:03,299
we don't get struck.
554
00:32:04,866 --> 00:32:07,366
The freeways out of the
city were jammed.
555
00:32:11,767 --> 00:32:14,000
Trains were packed.
556
00:32:14,099 --> 00:32:16,866
Over 23 million
people evacuated,
557
00:32:17,967 --> 00:32:20,567
leaving behind a deserted city.
558
00:32:23,165 --> 00:32:25,742
Computer models
show that the epicenter
559
00:32:25,767 --> 00:32:26,000
of the strike
would be Manhattan.
560
00:32:26,025 --> 00:32:27,799
Of the strike
would be Manhattan.
561
00:32:31,000 --> 00:32:35,200
The blast would reduce
the city to rubble and ash.
562
00:32:36,266 --> 00:32:39,299
There would be a one-mile-wide
crater resulting from it,
563
00:32:39,366 --> 00:32:41,366
so deep that
it would actually take
564
00:32:41,467 --> 00:32:44,767
the entire subway system and
turn it upside down and lay it
565
00:32:44,866 --> 00:32:47,700
onto the rim of the crater.
566
00:32:47,767 --> 00:32:50,142
You would have
a magnitude 5 earthquake
567
00:32:50,165 --> 00:32:52,266
at even six miles away
from that,
568
00:32:52,366 --> 00:32:54,442
and there would be
a big air blast,
569
00:32:54,467 --> 00:32:56,000
400-mile-an-hour winds.
570
00:32:56,023 --> 00:32:57,023
400-mile-an-hour winds.
571
00:32:57,799 --> 00:33:00,400
Something as light as a pencil
could be a lethal weapon
572
00:33:00,467 --> 00:33:02,266
when picked up by a shock wave
like that.
573
00:33:03,799 --> 00:33:07,767
As the crater is blasting out
and excavating itself,
574
00:33:07,866 --> 00:33:13,467
there would be little blobs of
molten rock that get thrown out
575
00:33:13,567 --> 00:33:16,299
in this wave, going faster than
the speed of sound,
576
00:33:18,266 --> 00:33:19,700
Like drops a fiery rain,
577
00:33:19,767 --> 00:33:22,666
if you will, landing back miles
away from the crater.
578
00:33:27,767 --> 00:33:29,799
The city would be on fire.
579
00:33:32,266 --> 00:33:35,567
So, um, there's just
no upside to this.
580
00:33:35,666 --> 00:33:36,567
There's nothing good.
581
00:33:36,599 --> 00:33:38,900
It's just all
from bad to horrific.
582
00:33:40,900 --> 00:33:43,542
But New York is by the ocean.
583
00:33:43,567 --> 00:33:48,266
What would happen if Apep 2.0
hit the sea?
584
00:33:52,567 --> 00:33:56,000
Detailed simulations have
revealed two very
585
00:33:56,066 --> 00:33:57,142
different outcomes
586
00:33:57,165 --> 00:34:00,866
for an asteroid hitting
the ocean at high speeds.
587
00:34:04,400 --> 00:34:07,467
If a giant asteroid
strikes the deep ocean,
588
00:34:07,567 --> 00:34:09,599
less than 1 percent
of its energy
589
00:34:09,666 --> 00:34:11,443
gets converted into waves.
590
00:34:11,467 --> 00:34:13,766
Those waves quickly disperse.
591
00:34:13,867 --> 00:34:16,543
They quickly lose energy as
they travel.
592
00:34:16,567 --> 00:34:20,443
By the time they reach
the coast, it might just be
593
00:34:20,467 --> 00:34:21,467
a little ripple,
594
00:34:21,567 --> 00:34:23,500
you might not even be able to
surf on it.
595
00:34:29,666 --> 00:34:32,467
If the asteroid hit
shallow coastal waters,
596
00:34:34,867 --> 00:34:37,699
it could cause significant
damage along the shoreline.
597
00:34:39,467 --> 00:34:43,300
If an asteroid, the size of
Apep hits the continental shelf
598
00:34:43,367 --> 00:34:45,342
where the water is
relatively shallow,
599
00:34:45,367 --> 00:34:48,467
then it could potentially
cause a tsunami.
600
00:34:52,699 --> 00:34:54,867
But that would just be
the start of the problems.
601
00:34:58,199 --> 00:34:59,842
With a shallow water impactor,
602
00:34:59,867 --> 00:35:03,199
huge amounts of steam are
generated basically by
603
00:35:03,266 --> 00:35:06,643
the energy of that impactor
vaporizing all the water.
604
00:35:06,666 --> 00:35:08,943
Well, all the water is then put
up into the atmosphere,
605
00:35:08,967 --> 00:35:12,266
and water is a really good
greenhouse gas.
606
00:35:12,367 --> 00:35:14,141
So you have warming from
the launch of water
607
00:35:14,166 --> 00:35:15,199
up into the atmosphere.
608
00:35:15,266 --> 00:35:17,867
You have cooling
from all of the ash and dust.
609
00:35:24,266 --> 00:35:25,266
A short bout of warming
610
00:35:25,367 --> 00:35:26,001
would be followed
by a brutal winter.
611
00:35:26,025 --> 00:35:27,666
Would be followed
by a brutal winter.
612
00:35:29,166 --> 00:35:31,800
Crops would fail.
613
00:35:31,867 --> 00:35:37,800
This impact has so many
horrible follow-on consequences.
614
00:35:37,867 --> 00:35:40,766
That tells us how difficult
it would be to...
615
00:35:40,867 --> 00:35:43,666
To rebuild from an event
like this.
616
00:35:47,599 --> 00:35:48,643
The eastern seaboard
617
00:35:48,666 --> 00:35:52,041
would suffer a serious economic
downturn.
618
00:35:52,065 --> 00:35:54,166
It would take decades
to recover.
619
00:35:59,199 --> 00:36:01,099
November 3rd, 2029.
620
00:36:02,500 --> 00:36:04,567
One day until impact.
621
00:36:06,400 --> 00:36:09,666
The space rock was just
400,000 miles away,
622
00:36:10,666 --> 00:36:16,000
and traveling 13 times faster
than an F-15 fighter jet.
623
00:36:16,099 --> 00:36:20,367
It was first a dim star,
and then a brighter star,
624
00:36:20,467 --> 00:36:23,166
and then in the hours before,
you can actually see it
625
00:36:23,266 --> 00:36:24,367
approaching the Earth.
626
00:36:25,867 --> 00:36:26,001
New York looked outmatched.
627
00:36:26,025 --> 00:36:28,699
New York looked outmatched.
628
00:36:28,766 --> 00:36:31,699
It looked like Apep would win,
629
00:36:31,766 --> 00:36:34,599
but this was not the end of
the game.
630
00:36:34,666 --> 00:36:37,467
Earth had one final card
to play.
631
00:36:49,467 --> 00:36:51,567
November 4th, 2029.
632
00:36:53,500 --> 00:36:57,300
The 300-foot Apep 2.0
reached Earth.
633
00:36:59,800 --> 00:37:01,342
The space rock pierced our
634
00:37:01,367 --> 00:37:05,166
atmosphere and hurtled
towards the surface.
635
00:37:18,099 --> 00:37:22,000
Then the asteroid passed
over Manhattan,
636
00:37:24,367 --> 00:37:27,041
over Brooklyn,
637
00:37:27,065 --> 00:37:28,766
and over Coney Island.
638
00:37:31,099 --> 00:37:35,400
It hit deep ocean,
350 miles off the coast.
639
00:37:42,199 --> 00:37:45,742
Apep 2.0 missed New York.
640
00:37:45,766 --> 00:37:46,766
But how?
641
00:37:50,300 --> 00:37:52,199
Our 7-year battle with
the asteroid
642
00:37:52,266 --> 00:37:55,141
resolved in a matter of seconds
643
00:37:55,166 --> 00:37:58,199
thanks to orbital dynamics.
644
00:37:59,300 --> 00:38:01,567
The orbit of the asteroid
and the orbit of the Earth
645
00:38:01,666 --> 00:38:05,400
and the way the Earth spins in
this great cosmic ballet
646
00:38:05,467 --> 00:38:06,699
means that
647
00:38:06,766 --> 00:38:10,242
a few seconds earlier or later
makes the difference between
648
00:38:10,266 --> 00:38:11,675
hitting the ocean
and hitting land.
649
00:38:11,699 --> 00:38:13,059
Hitting the ocean
and hitting land.
650
00:38:13,800 --> 00:38:16,266
Earth rotates at
1,000 miles an hour
651
00:38:17,699 --> 00:38:22,543
and orbits the sun at close
to 65,000 miles an hour.
652
00:38:22,567 --> 00:38:26,699
Apep orbited
at 40,000 miles an hour,
653
00:38:26,766 --> 00:38:31,467
but Apep 2.0 traveled
fractionally slower.
654
00:38:33,266 --> 00:38:36,166
The impact of the DAAFE mission
that sheared off
655
00:38:36,266 --> 00:38:41,367
the 300-foot chunk of rock
had also slowed it down.
656
00:38:41,467 --> 00:38:41,675
Slowing down Apep
657
00:38:41,699 --> 00:38:42,867
Slowing down Apep
658
00:38:42,967 --> 00:38:45,166
changed when it's going to
intersect the Earth.
659
00:38:45,266 --> 00:38:47,099
So New York spun out of
the crosshairs.
660
00:38:51,699 --> 00:38:56,041
Apep 2.0, hit
the ocean and exploded,
661
00:38:56,065 --> 00:38:57,666
breaking up instantly.
662
00:39:00,099 --> 00:39:03,443
The strike threw up a wall of
water into the air,
663
00:39:03,467 --> 00:39:05,666
followed by huge clouds
of steam.
664
00:39:07,500 --> 00:39:11,000
The impact created small
surface waves that quickly
665
00:39:11,065 --> 00:39:11,675
died away.
666
00:39:11,699 --> 00:39:12,699
Died away.
667
00:39:13,599 --> 00:39:17,699
It's like doing a gigantic
interplanetary belly flop.
668
00:39:17,766 --> 00:39:20,742
It evaporates, it obliterates,
and it generates
669
00:39:20,766 --> 00:39:23,500
an enormous amount of steam,
and it sets up shock waves.
670
00:39:23,567 --> 00:39:25,266
All that energy is still
released,
671
00:39:25,367 --> 00:39:28,467
but the ocean is capable of
absorbing it.
672
00:39:31,766 --> 00:39:35,599
New York dodged the
bullet and escaped unscathed
673
00:39:37,266 --> 00:39:40,400
thanks to the
dedication, ingenuity,
674
00:39:40,467 --> 00:39:41,675
and enterprise of a global
team of scientists.
675
00:39:41,699 --> 00:39:48,199
And enterprise of a global
team of scientists.
676
00:39:50,500 --> 00:39:54,666
Apep was an imaginary asteroid,
677
00:39:54,766 --> 00:39:58,699
but there are many potentially
hazardous space rocks out there.
678
00:40:01,467 --> 00:40:04,266
Thankfully,
this was a fictional scenario.
679
00:40:04,367 --> 00:40:07,867
It's a thought exercise, but
it's informed by our real,
680
00:40:07,967 --> 00:40:11,000
actual knowledge we've gained
over the years of dealing with,
681
00:40:11,065 --> 00:40:11,675
you know, potential close
approaches and the hazard from
682
00:40:11,699 --> 00:40:13,900
you know, potential close
approaches and the hazard from
683
00:40:14,000 --> 00:40:18,242
real asteroids that we actually
know about.
684
00:40:18,266 --> 00:40:21,867
Asteroid research is a good
insurance policy
685
00:40:21,967 --> 00:40:23,543
for our species.
686
00:40:23,567 --> 00:40:27,041
Hopefully we will never need
to carry these things out
687
00:40:27,065 --> 00:40:28,543
for real.
688
00:40:28,567 --> 00:40:30,867
Large asteroid strikes are rare,
689
00:40:32,300 --> 00:40:34,065
but we cannot be complacent.
690
00:40:39,266 --> 00:40:41,675
The most important thing to
do in planetary defense
691
00:40:41,699 --> 00:40:42,742
The most important thing to
do in planetary defense
692
00:40:42,766 --> 00:40:44,400
is to find them early.
693
00:40:44,467 --> 00:40:46,742
If we find them early, we have
a chance to predict
694
00:40:46,766 --> 00:40:49,599
the possible impacts and we
have a chance to mitigate them.
695
00:40:54,766 --> 00:40:56,599
Our technology is improving,
696
00:40:58,065 --> 00:41:01,400
so we can detect incoming
space rocks earlier,
697
00:41:03,666 --> 00:41:06,199
but we need to be vigilant,
698
00:41:06,266 --> 00:41:10,766
because the threat from
asteroids is not going away.
699
00:41:12,065 --> 00:41:13,543
Apart from climate change,
700
00:41:13,567 --> 00:41:17,141
asteroid strikes are, in my
opinion, the most dangerous
701
00:41:17,166 --> 00:41:18,567
thing to life on Earth.
702
00:41:19,867 --> 00:41:21,766
A lot of the times
the question I get is,
703
00:41:21,867 --> 00:41:23,766
"What are the chances of this
happening?"
704
00:41:23,867 --> 00:41:26,567
And they don't like the answer
because I say 100 percent.
705
00:41:28,699 --> 00:41:29,867
It takes time.
706
00:41:29,900 --> 00:41:33,000
It may not be for a week,
a month, a year, a century.
707
00:41:33,065 --> 00:41:35,467
But studying these asteroids
informs us on
708
00:41:35,567 --> 00:41:37,400
what we can do
to prevent an impact.
709
00:41:39,000 --> 00:41:41,242
There are a lot of natural
disasters that we can do
710
00:41:41,266 --> 00:41:41,675
nothing about...
Earthquakes, hurricanes,
711
00:41:41,699 --> 00:41:43,400
nothing about...
Earthquakes, hurricanes,
712
00:41:43,467 --> 00:41:44,344
that sort of thing.
713
00:41:44,367 --> 00:41:46,567
Here is
something way more devastating
714
00:41:46,666 --> 00:41:50,400
than any of those,
and we can prevent them.
715
00:41:50,467 --> 00:41:52,599
So we have to keep our eyes on
716
00:41:52,666 --> 00:41:54,766
the prize and our eyes on
the skies.
56505
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