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Putin's a very, very clever
and calculating man.
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It was very, very difficult
to find leverage,
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and to find ways
of constraining him.
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You know, he threatened me
at one point and said, you know,
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"Boris, I don't want to hurt you,
but with a missile,
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"it would only take a minute."
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Vladimir Putin has rocked the
foundations of European security.
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This is the story
of Putin's path to war -
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how and why he wrong-footed the West
through a decade of clashes...
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..told by the leaders who've
locked horns with him.
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I was clear, there could be
no business as usual with Russia.
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In this episode,
Putin ramps up his aggression.
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From an audacious poisoning...
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We leave no stone unturned.
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We should look at every
opportunity to respond.
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..to the moment he launched an
invasion that threatened
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to engulf Europe.
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We worked to the very end
to try to convince them
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to change their plans,
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until the tanks were rolling,
and the planes were flying.
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The issue for Putin was his project
to rebuild the Soviet empire.
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I don't know Putin.
He's said nice things about me -
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if we got along well,
that would be good.
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Frankly, Putin has built up their
military again and again, and again.
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Our nuclear's old and tired,
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and his nuclear is tippy-top,
from what I hear.
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Welcome home, Mr President!
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Donald Trump was sworn in
as president amidst
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a storm of allegations of Russian
interference in his election.
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After the election,
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I called the White House
for congratulate Trump.
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And definitely, I tried to be
prepared for this, er,
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phone conversation,
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because I doubt that Ukraine was
among his first priorities.
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My message to the Trump was
exactly like this -
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from the very first
phone conversation,
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"Don't trust Putin."
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Since Russia's invasion
of Crimea three years earlier,
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Ukraine had been lobbying America to
send its Javelin anti-tank missiles.
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President Obama had refused,
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wary of escalating tensions
with Russia.
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Now, Poroshenko had a chance
to pitch it to Trump.
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You could see that Poroshenko
was literally sweating,
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and very nervous.
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You know, the look on his face -
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I won't forget that, as he moved
forward into the office,
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full of trepidation, because
so much was riding on this.
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At that time, we have
the Russian occupation.
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At that time,
the Crimea was occupied.
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At that time, Donbas was occupied.
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Would you like to say something?
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That's a great honour,
and a great pleasure to be together
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with you, dear Mr President.
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One of the most reliable,
supportive, and, er, partner,
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strategic partner for Ukraine.
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The President was very
welcoming to Poroshenko.
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And Poroshenko, you know, of course,
was a successful businessman.
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You know, Trump was
a successful businessman.
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I think that they,
kind of, hit it off.
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And it's a great honour to have you,
Mr President, thank you.
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I said, "Mr President,
lethal weapons.
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"We need lethal weapons.
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"Javelin is an anti-tank,
very effective weapon."
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President Poroshenko was able to
show the effect that Russian
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aggression was continuing
to have on the Ukrainian people,
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the Ukrainian Armed Forces.
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I think President Trump recognised
that Ukraine was under
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serious duress, and it would require
some deterrent capabilities.
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I'm proud - on my back,
there was wings,
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that I go out from the Oval
Cabinet with the direct promises
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of President Trump for the Javelin.
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That was a great day.
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But it wasn't that simple.
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Trump still hadn't signed off
on the deal when he flew to
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a G20 summit two weeks later.
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Here, he would have
his first face-to-face meeting
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with Vladimir Putin.
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We were getting, you know,
suggestions, erm,
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from the Russians and from
President Putin
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that they would obviously be pretty
hostile er, if there were
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any transfers of weaponry,
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particularly the Javelin
anti-tank weapons, to Ukraine.
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There was sensitivity on the part
of the president that anything
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we'd do to help Ukraine
would anger Russia.
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And, of course, he was very
interested in being friends,
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for lack of a better term,
with President Putin.
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We look forward to a lot of
very positive things
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happening for Russia,
for the United States,
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and for everybody concerned.
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Trump really laboured under
the delusion that a good personal
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relationship with Putin would
moderate Putin's behaviour.
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Thank you. Here we go.
Thank you. Thank you.
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Thank you very much. Thank you.
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Later in a phone call,
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President Putin told
President Trump,
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"If you supply the Ukrainians with
weapons, they will ask for more".
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The Russians clearly didn't
understand why it was that
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Ukraine might have any importance
to the United States
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in a foreign policy and
security sense.
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Very dismissive.
"What's Ukraine to you?
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"Why are you so concerned
about Ukraine?"
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Two days after Trump's
meeting with Putin,
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his new envoy to Ukraine was sent to
assess the situation on the ground.
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There had been sporadic fighting
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since the Russian invasion
three years earlier.
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We flew very low and very fast
across eastern Ukraine.
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We went to an apartment building.
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Everything had been shot out.
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You could look over the line
of contact and see the
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Russian forces on the other side.
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The Ukrainians showed
where the Russian tanks are,
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and said, "We can't have
the tanks this close.
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"If they move towards us, we need
to be able to take them out."
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They said that, "We need these
lethal defensive arms
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"as quickly as possible".
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Back in Washington, Volker joined
Trump's National Security Team
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in trying to convince the President.
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I said, "Russia is using all
kinds of offensive arms
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"inside Ukrainian territory
to kill Ukrainians".
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"So, from both a moral
and a defensive,
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"and a diplomatic perspective,
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"you need to actually provide
these lethal defensive weapons."
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I said, "Not a Russian tank would
be hurt by a Javelin missile
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"if it didn't attack Ukraine.
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"There wasn't a Russian infantryman
that would be injured or killed
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"by American-provided ammunition
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"if they didn't attack
the sovereign country of Ukraine."
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I tried to make the case
that it's actually weakness
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that provokes Russia.
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And I believe that Russia invaded
Ukraine in 2014 because Putin said,
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"I can get away with it.
The Americans won't do anything."
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So, I think the provision of
defensive capabilities to Ukraine
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was important to establish or
re-establish deterrence of Russia.
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President Trump agreed.
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At the end of that year,
Trump finally signed the order
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to send lethal weapons to Ukraine.
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Our reaction to this decision that
has been taken by President Trump,
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that Americans has crossed the line.
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He was talked into sending
these Javelins.
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And, of course, it was only
the beginning of arming Ukraine.
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The beginning of
a very dangerous path.
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The fact that the US was supplying
the regime with lethal weapons, er,
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I think he saw as a threat to him.
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Putin believed Ukraine
was illegitimate.
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It had ripped out of the
Soviet Union, out of Russia,
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and he made it clear that he
considered the break-up of
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the Soviet Union the greatest
geopolitical catastrophe
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of the 20th century.
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Since 1991, 13 former Communist
countries had joined
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the defensive alliance of NATO,
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and Ukraine was lobbying
to do the same.
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00:10:02,120 --> 00:10:04,680
After Putin's invasion of Crimea,
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NATO had stepped up its presence
along its eastern flank
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and deployed a new
missile defence system.
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..Vladimir Vladimirovich Putin.
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Facing re-election,
Putin seized on the idea of a threat
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from the West as a rallying cry.
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I remember that video,
and I really just thought of it as,
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"This is Russian domestic politics.
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"He's trying to make people feel
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"that the US and the West is a
threat and that he's tough,
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"and Russia's strong,
and he can make sure that
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"he protects the Russian people."
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Is this a sign that this is
definitely something that
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would be done, or actually just
trying to sabre-rattle?
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Trying to say, you know,
"I'm a strong man here.
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"I could do this if I wanted to."
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Only a few days later,
the British Prime Minister would be
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forced to deal with a threat from
Russia on her own turf.
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I remember my private secretary
saying to me that this couple
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had been taken ill on
this park bench in Salisbury.
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So, when I was first told, it wasn't
absolutely clear what it was.
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Of course, quite quickly,
it became quite clear that this was
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the use of a chemical weapon.
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A nerve agent.
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The government has confirmed
that the two people suspected of
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being poisoned in Salisbury are a
former Russian spy and his daughter.
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Sergei and Yulia Skripal remain
critically ill in hospital.
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The Foreign Secretary says the
government will respond robustly
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if any Russian state
responsibility is proven.
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As soon as we identified
the victims, we knew that it was
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likely to have some kind of
Russian angle to it.
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The chemical weapon
that had been used,
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the fact that it was a Novichok -
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and Novichoks had been developed
actually in the period
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of the Soviet Union.
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So, fairly swiftly,
our key prime suspect,
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if you like, was the Russian state.
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This was a trap, er, a set-up.
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Because it has no logical
explanation at all.
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First, we do not need
to kill these people.
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Second, if there is a need,
there is a much...
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..much simple things to do that,
er, and unnoticed, of course,
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they will simply get out of
the map and disappear.
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00:13:09,840 --> 00:13:13,240
The government has
concluded that it is highly likely
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00:13:13,240 --> 00:13:15,680
that Russia was responsible
for the act against
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Sergei and Yulia Skripal.
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"Highly likely" is a new invention
of the British diplomacy to
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describe why they punish people.
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Because these people are
"highly likely" guilty.
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Like, you know, in Alice
in Wonderland,
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and the King said, er,
"Let's ask the jury,"
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and the Queen shouted, "No jury.
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"Sentence first,
verdict afterwards."
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That's the logic of "highly likely".
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00:14:01,720 --> 00:14:04,840
Their initial approach
was the classic -
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admit nothing, deny everything,
make counteraccusations.
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And so, we wanted the Russians
to understand we were not prepared
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to allow this grotesque attack
to go unpunished.
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00:14:17,560 --> 00:14:20,400
Theresa May called in
her top advisers.
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The Prime Minister's view
on this was,
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"We leave no stone unturned.
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00:14:25,680 --> 00:14:29,560
"We should look at every
opportunity to respond to what was
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00:14:29,560 --> 00:14:31,680
"an outrageous provocation."
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You have nothing off the table.
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You have to be prepared to
look at all options.
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00:14:36,360 --> 00:14:40,520
We discussed a key cornerstone,
if you like, of the NATO alliance
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where if a member of the alliance
is attacked, under Article 5,
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they can essentially ask
for response from all NATO allies.
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00:14:47,520 --> 00:14:50,320
Somebody said "Look,
Theresa, hang on a minute.
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00:14:50,320 --> 00:14:52,680
"This would be a little
bit disproportionate.
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00:14:52,680 --> 00:14:57,040
"The only time Article 5 has
actually been used was in response
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"to the 9/11 attacks.
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"And that's probably going to feel,
to some of our allies, like a bit
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"of a disproportionate response."
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We came to the decision
that we would expel
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Russian intelligence officers,
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00:15:12,480 --> 00:15:15,960
and that was an important signal
to Russia that we know exactly
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what you've done, and actually,
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we are going to act
against your network.
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To show the West meant business,
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the Prime Minister wanted her allies
to kick out Russian spies, as well.
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00:15:28,720 --> 00:15:32,320
Top of the list was
the American President.
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00:15:32,320 --> 00:15:36,000
I said, we had a very clear
expectation from the United States,
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we had our special relationship,
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and if the United States wanted to
ensure that Russia got a clear
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message about chemical weapons,
they should stand alongside us.
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Who are you going to believe?
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Are you going to believe
the United Kingdom?
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00:15:48,440 --> 00:15:50,200
Long-standing allies? Or Russia?
241
00:15:50,200 --> 00:15:52,520
His tone was, "Well, go and
ask the Europeans,
242
00:15:52,520 --> 00:15:53,880
"get them to do something.
243
00:15:53,880 --> 00:15:57,520
"If they do something, which I very
much doubt, maybe I'll do something.
244
00:15:57,520 --> 00:16:00,080
"But I'm certainly not inclined
to go out on a limb,
245
00:16:00,080 --> 00:16:02,280
"if they're not going to do it."
246
00:16:02,280 --> 00:16:09,680
What I remember is how hard
the UK had to work to build that
247
00:16:09,680 --> 00:16:14,320
international outrage that I
think the crime deserved.
248
00:16:14,320 --> 00:16:20,080
You know, you could see the magnetic
pull of Putin and Russian influence,
249
00:16:20,080 --> 00:16:21,600
even in the EU.
250
00:16:21,600 --> 00:16:24,960
We were negotiating over the weekend
to try and ensure that we had
251
00:16:24,960 --> 00:16:26,720
every country doing something.
252
00:16:26,720 --> 00:16:30,000
I'd be talking to my French
counterpart and he'd say,
253
00:16:30,000 --> 00:16:32,400
"No, we'll call the Italians.
You call the Germans."
254
00:16:32,400 --> 00:16:34,560
My Austrian counterpart
actually said to me,
255
00:16:34,560 --> 00:16:37,560
"Well, you know, this is all very
well, Fiona,
256
00:16:37,560 --> 00:16:40,640
"but, you know,
"the Russians are very nice to us.
257
00:16:40,640 --> 00:16:43,040
"Nothing like that
has happened here."
258
00:16:43,040 --> 00:16:44,440
And I was thinking in my mind,
259
00:16:44,440 --> 00:16:46,960
"My goodness, what happened
during the Cold War"?
260
00:16:46,960 --> 00:16:50,000
Vienna and Austria was
the centre of espionage,
261
00:16:50,000 --> 00:16:52,720
and just exactly these
kinds of events.
262
00:16:52,720 --> 00:16:54,480
I mean, films were made about this!
263
00:16:54,480 --> 00:16:56,600
"Wasn't there The Third Man?"
I thought to myself.
264
00:16:56,600 --> 00:16:58,640
We only got 16 EU countries
to do it, right,
265
00:16:58,640 --> 00:17:00,840
and quite a few who didn't.
266
00:17:00,840 --> 00:17:04,040
France and Germany did four each,
I think.
267
00:17:04,040 --> 00:17:07,440
Other countries did,
you know, a few.
268
00:17:07,440 --> 00:17:10,120
Ukraine - 13.
269
00:17:10,120 --> 00:17:11,600
Fantastic.
270
00:17:11,600 --> 00:17:13,760
Interesting, America -
271
00:17:13,760 --> 00:17:18,640
which was then under
Donald Trump's presidency -
272
00:17:18,640 --> 00:17:19,920
did 60.
273
00:17:19,920 --> 00:17:23,200
It's the greatest collective
expulsion of Russian diplomats
274
00:17:23,200 --> 00:17:25,600
and intelligence officials
in history.
275
00:17:25,600 --> 00:17:29,320
So far, more than 130 diplomats
or spies will have
276
00:17:29,320 --> 00:17:31,760
to leave 24 countries.
277
00:17:31,760 --> 00:17:36,040
It's rare that words in diplomacy
are backed up by so much action.
278
00:17:39,360 --> 00:17:42,960
Russia responded immediately,
evicting diplomats from Britain
279
00:17:42,960 --> 00:17:45,560
and every nation that had
backed Theresa May.
280
00:18:02,800 --> 00:18:05,440
The row over Salisbury helped fuel
281
00:18:05,440 --> 00:18:07,840
the nationalist fervour
Putin was stoking.
282
00:18:12,880 --> 00:18:15,840
In the middle of the crisis,
he cruised to victory
283
00:18:15,840 --> 00:18:19,440
in the Presidential elections,
confirming his status as
284
00:18:19,440 --> 00:18:22,720
the longest-serving
Russian leader since Stalin.
285
00:19:25,160 --> 00:19:28,000
Discussing priorities
for his new term,
286
00:19:28,000 --> 00:19:31,400
Putin pointed to an issue
that had been simmering for years.
287
00:19:47,920 --> 00:19:51,000
The two leaders agreed that
their respective national
288
00:19:51,000 --> 00:19:54,560
security councils would have
more direct contact,
289
00:19:54,560 --> 00:19:59,360
and so, I thought this was a good
way to talk about arms control,
290
00:19:59,360 --> 00:20:01,080
including the INF Treaty.
291
00:20:03,240 --> 00:20:06,960
President Ronald Reagan and
General Secretary Mikhail Gorbachev
292
00:20:06,960 --> 00:20:10,120
signed themselves and their
countries into the history books
293
00:20:10,120 --> 00:20:12,960
today and set their seal on a
treaty that would eliminate
294
00:20:12,960 --> 00:20:17,360
the world's stockpile of land-based
medium-range nuclear weapons.
295
00:20:17,360 --> 00:20:22,240
The INF Treaty, which controlled
Intermediate Nuclear Forces,
296
00:20:22,240 --> 00:20:26,360
marked the end of years of Cold War
tensions over the stationing
297
00:20:26,360 --> 00:20:29,080
of missiles in Europe and the USSR.
298
00:20:33,320 --> 00:20:36,640
But evidence was mounting
that Russia had been developing
299
00:20:36,640 --> 00:20:40,360
new missiles and deploying them
close to the border with Europe.
300
00:20:44,000 --> 00:20:47,880
We considered the Russians to have
been in very serious violation
301
00:20:47,880 --> 00:20:50,320
of it for well over a decade,
302
00:20:50,320 --> 00:20:55,760
and it didn't make any sense at all
to have the US bound by a treaty
303
00:20:55,760 --> 00:20:58,000
that the Russians were not bound by.
304
00:20:58,000 --> 00:20:59,760
That's obviously unacceptable.
305
00:21:01,440 --> 00:21:04,880
The Russians refused
to admit any violation.
306
00:21:04,880 --> 00:21:08,560
Trump's team flew to Moscow to
take it up with Putin.
307
00:21:09,760 --> 00:21:11,240
Here we were on the plane,
308
00:21:11,240 --> 00:21:13,640
and President Trump,
what does he do?
309
00:21:13,640 --> 00:21:15,760
He immediately tells the press,
310
00:21:15,760 --> 00:21:17,960
"Oh, we're going to pull out
of the INF Treaty".
311
00:21:17,960 --> 00:21:21,440
Russia has not adhered to
the agreement, so we are going to
312
00:21:21,440 --> 00:21:24,280
terminate the agreement, and we are
going to develop the weapons.
313
00:21:24,280 --> 00:21:26,560
We're not going to be
the only one to adhere to it.
314
00:21:26,560 --> 00:21:28,000
I think you understand that.
315
00:21:28,000 --> 00:21:29,880
OK? Thank you, thank you, everybody.
316
00:21:31,160 --> 00:21:33,400
It was unexpected, to say the least,
317
00:21:33,400 --> 00:21:36,640
but it was very much
in the Trump mode.
318
00:21:36,640 --> 00:21:37,960
Mr President.
319
00:21:41,000 --> 00:21:43,560
This treaty is dated of '87.
320
00:21:43,560 --> 00:21:45,560
Er, I was much younger
at that time,
321
00:21:45,560 --> 00:21:48,760
but I was part of our team
in negotiating this treaty
322
00:21:48,760 --> 00:21:50,640
in Geneva, with the Americans.
323
00:21:50,640 --> 00:21:55,560
And I think it is one of the best
treaties that we have achieved,
324
00:21:55,560 --> 00:21:57,440
because it is very simple.
325
00:21:57,440 --> 00:22:01,760
Simple in terms of verification,
and of trust to each other.
326
00:22:16,480 --> 00:22:19,720
Putin said, "I thought on
the great seal of the United States,
327
00:22:19,720 --> 00:22:24,000
"the eagle had olive branches
in one of its claws."
328
00:22:29,240 --> 00:22:32,400
Well, thank you Mr President,
it's a pleasure to see you again.
329
00:22:32,400 --> 00:22:34,800
But I didn't bring any more olives.
330
00:22:34,800 --> 00:22:36,640
That's what I thought.
331
00:22:38,720 --> 00:22:42,440
It was clear that the Russians
wanted to keep us in the INF Treaty
332
00:22:42,440 --> 00:22:45,800
while they were basically
developing weapons,
333
00:22:45,800 --> 00:22:49,320
erm, because of their
own broader security concerns.
334
00:22:49,320 --> 00:22:54,480
President Putin said
to Ambassador Bolton, "OK.
335
00:22:54,480 --> 00:22:57,480
"Right, so we won't have
the INF Treaty.
336
00:22:57,480 --> 00:23:00,400
"What's going to happen post-INF?
337
00:23:00,400 --> 00:23:06,000
"How are we going to manage
the intermediate nuclear forces?"
338
00:23:07,120 --> 00:23:11,280
These missiles, they will reach
St Petersburg in 3-4 minutes,
339
00:23:11,280 --> 00:23:14,080
and Moscow, in 7-8 minutes,
or something more, perhaps,
340
00:23:14,080 --> 00:23:16,640
I'm not sure about
the details of it.
341
00:23:16,640 --> 00:23:23,720
So, the risk of danger, of war
will be much, much higher
342
00:23:23,720 --> 00:23:25,200
than without these missiles.
343
00:23:25,200 --> 00:23:28,640
What Putin was mostly concerned
about was what the United States
344
00:23:28,640 --> 00:23:34,040
would do in Europe,
once we had the capability.
345
00:23:34,040 --> 00:23:37,680
As he might have been, except he
was the one who had posed a threat
346
00:23:37,680 --> 00:23:42,200
to begin with by already stationing
noncompliant missiles.
347
00:24:08,680 --> 00:24:12,600
Most of the countries at greatest
risk of Putin's missiles
348
00:24:12,600 --> 00:24:14,080
were members of NATO.
349
00:24:16,000 --> 00:24:18,400
Everyone's attention was riveted.
350
00:24:18,400 --> 00:24:21,640
The Germans, the Dutch,
the Norwegians,
351
00:24:21,640 --> 00:24:23,400
they stepped forward and said,
352
00:24:23,400 --> 00:24:25,720
"Well, hey, is this really
the moment?
353
00:24:25,720 --> 00:24:29,440
"Isn't there more work that
we can do at the diplomatic table?"
354
00:24:31,160 --> 00:24:33,920
The Russians were invited
to a special meeting.
355
00:24:36,920 --> 00:24:39,520
The atmosphere in
the room was very tense.
356
00:24:39,520 --> 00:24:45,800
The INF Treaty was considered to be
a cornerstone of European security.
357
00:24:45,800 --> 00:24:51,240
We explained our concerns,
and that we expected from Russia
358
00:24:51,240 --> 00:24:56,440
to destroy all these systems which
violated the INF Treaty.
359
00:24:56,440 --> 00:25:00,640
Russia was represented by Deputy
Foreign Minister Sergei Ryabkov.
360
00:25:00,640 --> 00:25:03,400
He was very clear and said,
"The problem is NATO,
361
00:25:03,400 --> 00:25:05,680
"the problem is the US,
but the problem is not Russia."
362
00:25:05,680 --> 00:25:09,640
I said, "Our efforts are sincere
to try to save the INF Treaty,
363
00:25:09,640 --> 00:25:13,000
"and we would very much like
to look for ways to work with you
364
00:25:13,000 --> 00:25:14,720
"in order to resolve this issue."
365
00:25:14,720 --> 00:25:17,240
And he just shook his head
and he said,
366
00:25:17,240 --> 00:25:20,000
"The relationship is going
in the wrong direction,
367
00:25:20,000 --> 00:25:23,080
"and there's no way we can do
problem-solving with NATO."
368
00:25:23,080 --> 00:25:27,680
Strict instructions, I'm sure,
to punch NATO in the nose.
369
00:25:29,920 --> 00:25:33,920
The Americans confirmed
their withdrawal from the Treaty,
370
00:25:33,920 --> 00:25:37,520
undeterred by Putin's threats
of a new Cold War.
371
00:25:54,640 --> 00:25:57,480
Putin already had
the largest stockpile of
372
00:25:57,480 --> 00:25:59,440
nuclear warheads in the world.
373
00:26:03,480 --> 00:26:06,960
And his forces were now deployed
from the Arctic Circle
374
00:26:06,960 --> 00:26:09,200
to the Middle East.
375
00:26:09,200 --> 00:26:11,800
But it was the threat to his
immediate neighbours
376
00:26:11,800 --> 00:26:13,800
that was causing the most concern.
377
00:26:25,760 --> 00:26:29,280
Tri, dva, odin!
378
00:26:33,400 --> 00:26:38,280
That year, a former comedy actor
was elected in Ukraine.
379
00:26:38,280 --> 00:26:43,000
Volodymyr Zelensky had to decide how
to deal with the ongoing conflict
380
00:26:43,000 --> 00:26:44,560
in the east of his country.
381
00:27:26,440 --> 00:27:28,840
To end the fighting in Donbas,
382
00:27:28,840 --> 00:27:32,440
Zelensky wanted to renegotiate
a deal his predecessor had agreed
383
00:27:32,440 --> 00:27:34,240
with Putin four years earlier.
384
00:27:36,240 --> 00:27:40,000
The Minsk Agreement had been signed
as Russian-backed forces threatened
385
00:27:40,000 --> 00:27:42,280
to overwhelm Ukraine's army.
386
00:27:42,280 --> 00:27:45,360
But the ceasefire it promised
had never held.
387
00:27:56,120 --> 00:28:00,040
Six months after taking office,
Zelensky got his chance to
388
00:28:00,040 --> 00:28:04,080
confront Putin at a summit hosted
by the French President.
389
00:28:09,200 --> 00:28:11,840
It was a very tense meeting.
390
00:28:11,840 --> 00:28:14,040
It was the first meeting
of the presidents.
391
00:28:15,320 --> 00:28:18,400
President Macron,
he was trying to, sort of,
392
00:28:18,400 --> 00:28:20,960
make acquaintance for everybody.
393
00:28:20,960 --> 00:28:24,160
Erm, he promised that it will be
a good dinner, French-style,
394
00:28:24,160 --> 00:28:27,640
with a good wine afterwards,
probably been pushing us not
395
00:28:27,640 --> 00:28:29,440
to have a very long conversation.
396
00:28:52,840 --> 00:28:56,520
Minsk Agreements, they are
absolutely clear that Donbas
397
00:28:56,520 --> 00:28:59,240
will remain part of Ukraine,
398
00:28:59,240 --> 00:29:01,840
but with special status
and possibilities.
399
00:29:01,840 --> 00:29:06,120
Having its own militia, having
special relationship with Russia,
400
00:29:06,120 --> 00:29:09,840
er, speaking Russian language
without any interference.
401
00:29:25,240 --> 00:29:29,240
Under the Minsk deal, elections
were due to be held in Donbas -
402
00:29:29,240 --> 00:29:32,880
despite the Russian-backed
separatists remaining in control.
403
00:30:02,720 --> 00:30:06,760
We were trying to get the Russian
tanks out of our territory,
404
00:30:06,760 --> 00:30:09,320
which Putin himself
personally said, "No".
405
00:30:09,320 --> 00:30:11,480
He slammed the table,
406
00:30:11,480 --> 00:30:15,360
and he used a couple of words
which I markedly remembered.
407
00:30:15,360 --> 00:30:17,600
And he was quite upset with,
you know,
408
00:30:17,600 --> 00:30:19,680
the way the discussion was going.
409
00:30:19,680 --> 00:30:22,360
The problem is, he was promised
by his own people that
410
00:30:22,360 --> 00:30:25,040
President Zelensky would be
eager to accommodate.
411
00:30:25,040 --> 00:30:26,560
And it was not happening.
412
00:31:32,640 --> 00:31:34,960
I was thinking,
"Jesus, I've seen it before.
413
00:31:34,960 --> 00:31:36,600
"It's going to nowhere."
414
00:31:36,600 --> 00:31:38,920
I remember I was telling
President Zelensky,
415
00:31:38,920 --> 00:31:40,280
"You can't bargain with him.
416
00:31:40,280 --> 00:31:42,400
"Putin does not need
anything from us.
417
00:31:42,400 --> 00:31:45,720
"There is no river,
no building or city, or -
418
00:31:45,720 --> 00:31:47,400
"he wants us not to exist."
419
00:31:51,760 --> 00:31:54,000
For all Zelensky's efforts,
420
00:31:54,000 --> 00:31:55,920
there were no further meetings
421
00:31:55,920 --> 00:31:59,200
between the two presidents in
the year that followed.
422
00:31:59,200 --> 00:32:02,880
Instead, Putin celebrated
the seventh anniversary of
423
00:32:02,880 --> 00:32:04,400
his capture of Crimea.
424
00:32:50,880 --> 00:32:54,960
That spring, after NATO had
conducted its largest military drill
425
00:32:54,960 --> 00:32:56,640
in Europe for decades,
426
00:32:56,640 --> 00:33:00,800
Putin announced a huge training
exercise on Ukraine's border.
427
00:33:42,280 --> 00:33:46,440
For years, Ukraine had been
trying to join NATO.
428
00:33:46,440 --> 00:33:49,880
But progress had been stymied by
countries including France
429
00:33:49,880 --> 00:33:53,160
and Germany, who were worried
the move could antagonise Russia.
430
00:33:55,720 --> 00:34:00,080
Zelensky stepped up his efforts to
win over NATO'S Secretary General,
431
00:34:00,080 --> 00:34:01,720
Jens Stoltenberg.
432
00:34:22,120 --> 00:34:24,040
I had to tell him the reality,
433
00:34:24,040 --> 00:34:27,480
and that is that to make
decisions on membership,
434
00:34:27,480 --> 00:34:30,200
to invite a country
to become a member of NATO,
435
00:34:30,200 --> 00:34:33,960
we need consensus, we need
all allies to agree.
436
00:34:33,960 --> 00:34:37,600
And there was no consensus in NATO.
437
00:34:55,800 --> 00:35:00,440
I suggested that we should focus
providing political
438
00:35:00,440 --> 00:35:02,240
and practical support.
439
00:35:02,240 --> 00:35:06,120
The best way to increase the
security of Ukraine was to actually
440
00:35:06,120 --> 00:35:08,720
support them and enable them
to defend themselves.
441
00:35:13,720 --> 00:35:17,200
Putin soon announced the official
end to the military exercise.
442
00:35:19,120 --> 00:35:22,120
But tens of thousands
of troops and heavy armaments
443
00:35:22,120 --> 00:35:23,560
remained on the border.
444
00:35:26,320 --> 00:35:30,440
For me, it was the beginning of
something that was very worrying.
445
00:35:30,440 --> 00:35:33,800
I felt very strongly -
we need to help Ukraine,
446
00:35:33,800 --> 00:35:35,800
we need to help them
defend themselves,
447
00:35:35,800 --> 00:35:37,080
we need to give them hope.
448
00:35:37,080 --> 00:35:40,520
So, I wrote to the Prime Minister
at a very high classification.
449
00:35:40,520 --> 00:35:46,840
Ben Wallace came to me and -
with a letter, secret letter.
450
00:35:46,840 --> 00:35:51,400
And it was basically making
the case for us stepping up
451
00:35:51,400 --> 00:35:54,040
our military support for Ukraine.
452
00:35:54,040 --> 00:35:59,400
And what I said to Ben was,
"Look, let's do this.
453
00:35:59,400 --> 00:36:01,840
"Let's keep in step with
the Americans as far as we can."
454
00:36:01,840 --> 00:36:05,280
Now, the Americans were already,
I think, providing Javelins
455
00:36:05,280 --> 00:36:08,960
and other kit, so we went
for the NLAWs, the famous
456
00:36:08,960 --> 00:36:12,960
Belfast-made anti-tank weapon.
457
00:36:15,600 --> 00:36:19,040
In America, a new President
had taken office.
458
00:36:20,560 --> 00:36:24,640
Joe Biden had spent years dealing
with Putin as Vice President,
459
00:36:24,640 --> 00:36:27,280
and there were high hopes
for their first summit.
460
00:36:32,520 --> 00:36:36,080
There had been this sense of
build-up in the media here
461
00:36:36,080 --> 00:36:38,320
in the United States, in Europe,
462
00:36:38,320 --> 00:36:41,360
that it was, sort of, a return
to the Cold War days, in terms of
463
00:36:41,360 --> 00:36:43,320
the superpower showdown.
464
00:36:49,120 --> 00:36:53,720
They talked very forthrightly about
areas where we disagreed.
465
00:36:53,720 --> 00:36:59,400
And Putin made very clear
his belief that Ukraine should be
466
00:36:59,400 --> 00:37:00,760
subjugated under Russia,
467
00:37:00,760 --> 00:37:04,120
and that's something we
fundamentally disagreed with.
468
00:37:04,120 --> 00:37:07,920
But there's a sense that
we needed to put guard rails around
469
00:37:07,920 --> 00:37:09,760
our relationship with Russia,
470
00:37:09,760 --> 00:37:12,200
so we did not end up into
an unintended conflict.
471
00:37:15,680 --> 00:37:20,240
I think that the last thing
he wants now is a Cold War.
472
00:37:20,240 --> 00:37:23,280
As I said to him,
"This is not a 'kumbaya' moment,
473
00:37:23,280 --> 00:37:26,120
"as you used to say back
in the '60s, in the United States,
474
00:37:26,120 --> 00:37:28,160
"like, 'Let's hug and
love each other.'
475
00:37:28,160 --> 00:37:30,680
"But it's clearly not in
anybody's interest -
476
00:37:30,680 --> 00:37:32,960
"your country's or mine -
477
00:37:32,960 --> 00:37:36,760
"for us to be in a situation where
we're in a new Cold War."
478
00:37:36,760 --> 00:37:39,240
And I truly believe he thinks that.
479
00:37:44,680 --> 00:37:46,760
Biden's hopes were short-lived.
480
00:37:48,040 --> 00:37:51,880
Within months, as the West
was reeling from America's chaotic
481
00:37:51,880 --> 00:37:53,640
withdrawal from Afghanistan,
482
00:37:53,640 --> 00:37:57,480
Putin's generals put on a display
of Russia's military might.
483
00:38:00,600 --> 00:38:05,160
US intelligence was also picking up
even more worrying reports.
484
00:38:07,600 --> 00:38:12,080
I had watched Putin increasingly
stewing in a combustible combination
485
00:38:12,080 --> 00:38:14,120
of grievance and ambition.
486
00:38:14,120 --> 00:38:17,680
We had begun to put together
a pretty clear and pretty
487
00:38:17,680 --> 00:38:22,240
troubling picture
of Russian military planning.
488
00:38:22,240 --> 00:38:26,240
I had come to believe that
President Putin was quite serious
489
00:38:26,240 --> 00:38:29,200
about launching a major new
invasion of Ukraine.
490
00:38:32,120 --> 00:38:36,240
Biden dispatched Burns to Moscow
to confront Putin directly.
491
00:38:37,560 --> 00:38:40,800
The Covid pandemic
was sweeping through Russia.
492
00:38:42,560 --> 00:38:46,240
Moscow, in particular, was in the
midst of one of the worst waves of
493
00:38:46,240 --> 00:38:48,840
Covid that Russia had experienced.
494
00:38:50,600 --> 00:38:53,600
President Putin had isolated
himself in Sochi.
495
00:38:53,600 --> 00:38:57,520
And so, my conversation with him
was actually over a secure phone
496
00:38:57,520 --> 00:39:00,160
from an office in the Kremlin.
497
00:39:00,160 --> 00:39:04,520
I was very direct in laying out
the message that President Biden
498
00:39:04,520 --> 00:39:06,160
had asked me to convey -
499
00:39:06,160 --> 00:39:09,800
that we know what he's up to,
and to tell him that he's going
500
00:39:09,800 --> 00:39:13,000
to pay a heavy price if
he launches such an invasion.
501
00:39:13,000 --> 00:39:17,400
Erm, President Putin listened
to all this with no effort to deny
502
00:39:17,400 --> 00:39:19,720
that this planning was under way.
503
00:39:19,720 --> 00:39:24,560
He had a list of grievances
about Ukraine and about the West,
504
00:39:24,560 --> 00:39:27,040
and the ways in which he felt
the Western leaders,
505
00:39:27,040 --> 00:39:28,560
including the United States,
506
00:39:28,560 --> 00:39:32,480
hadn't paid attention to
Russia's concerns over the years.
507
00:39:32,480 --> 00:39:35,240
I was troubled before
I arrived in Moscow.
508
00:39:35,240 --> 00:39:37,880
And I was even more
troubled after I left.
509
00:39:43,000 --> 00:39:46,440
NATO ministers gathered
to decide what to do about
510
00:39:46,440 --> 00:39:47,800
the new intelligence.
511
00:39:49,880 --> 00:39:52,760
Zelensky sent
his new Foreign Minister.
512
00:40:16,240 --> 00:40:19,080
The stronger we are,
the less tempting it will be
513
00:40:19,080 --> 00:40:20,480
for Russia to move forward.
514
00:40:27,640 --> 00:40:30,560
We'd been informed that the
worst-case scenario
515
00:40:30,560 --> 00:40:32,640
is very likely to happen.
516
00:40:32,640 --> 00:40:38,520
That Russia has an intention
to attack Ukraine, and will use
517
00:40:38,520 --> 00:40:41,360
everything in its power
to occupy the whole country.
518
00:40:41,360 --> 00:40:46,520
And I can probably say that many
people were truly shocked.
519
00:40:46,520 --> 00:40:50,600
All allies agree that it was
a significant military build-up,
520
00:40:50,600 --> 00:40:55,240
but there were differences on how
to interpret those facts.
521
00:40:55,240 --> 00:40:59,320
And to what extent was this just
a demonstration of power,
522
00:40:59,320 --> 00:41:01,160
an attempt to coerce Ukraine?
523
00:41:02,200 --> 00:41:06,400
There were a number of
colleagues who were not convinced.
524
00:41:06,400 --> 00:41:09,680
And they would ask, you know,
myself and other Baltic colleagues,
525
00:41:09,680 --> 00:41:12,960
like, you know, "Do you really
believe that this is possible?"
526
00:41:12,960 --> 00:41:16,880
That a full-scale invasion
of a country of 40 million people,
527
00:41:16,880 --> 00:41:18,920
it's truly incomprehensible.
528
00:41:18,920 --> 00:41:22,040
I said to the Allies, that,
"OK, maybe you have a bit different
529
00:41:22,040 --> 00:41:26,160
"assessments of the likelihood
of a full-scale invasion.
530
00:41:26,160 --> 00:41:29,480
"But in one way, it doesn't matter,
because regardless of whether
531
00:41:29,480 --> 00:41:31,680
"the likelihood is 80% or 20%,
532
00:41:31,680 --> 00:41:33,640
"we need to be prepared
for the worst."
533
00:41:43,200 --> 00:41:45,120
As the summit wrapped up,
534
00:41:45,120 --> 00:41:49,040
Putin addressed a new intake
of ambassadors to Moscow.
535
00:41:49,040 --> 00:41:52,000
His words were aimed firmly at NATO.
536
00:42:17,160 --> 00:42:20,000
I talked to him after his
big pronouncement.
537
00:42:20,000 --> 00:42:23,680
And so, you know, I begin with
a long preamble about how
538
00:42:23,680 --> 00:42:26,600
our two countries have fought
together against fascism,
539
00:42:26,600 --> 00:42:30,000
how they were integral to
the defeat of Nazism.
540
00:42:30,000 --> 00:42:33,800
And, you know, he liked all that,
he bought all that.
541
00:42:33,800 --> 00:42:35,440
But then, he kept saying,
542
00:42:35,440 --> 00:42:38,800
"You must rule out any
NATO membership for Ukraine".
543
00:42:38,800 --> 00:42:41,920
I said "Well, we can't rule out
NATO membership.
544
00:42:41,920 --> 00:42:43,320
"It's a free country."
545
00:42:43,320 --> 00:42:47,000
It was pretty alarming, you know,
he wasn't moving at all.
546
00:42:47,000 --> 00:42:50,400
And during 20 years since
the first enlargement of NATO,
547
00:42:50,400 --> 00:42:53,320
we have heard that there will be
no further enlargements.
548
00:42:53,320 --> 00:42:56,560
And we have got seven waves
of enlargement.
549
00:42:56,560 --> 00:43:01,400
And it was on the verge of
Ukraine applying to NATO.
550
00:43:04,760 --> 00:43:08,880
For Putin, if Ukraine strengthened
its ties with the West,
551
00:43:08,880 --> 00:43:12,120
an ancient bond would be destroyed.
552
00:43:12,120 --> 00:43:16,800
He'd recently used a 5,000-word
polemic to glorify the historic ties
553
00:43:16,800 --> 00:43:18,800
between the two countries -
554
00:43:18,800 --> 00:43:22,200
from the Orthodox Church
to the ancient Russian language.
555
00:43:23,800 --> 00:43:28,240
This is a president who is now
really evoking an ethnic nationalism
556
00:43:28,240 --> 00:43:31,000
we haven't seen in Europe,
really, since the war,
557
00:43:31,000 --> 00:43:33,080
potentially, in the Balkans.
558
00:43:33,080 --> 00:43:36,280
But also, a man who was thinking
like a politician about legacy.
559
00:43:36,280 --> 00:43:38,600
This is not about NATO and
all the red herrings
560
00:43:38,600 --> 00:43:40,160
that he was throwing out.
561
00:43:40,160 --> 00:43:47,400
The issue for Putin was his project
to rebuild the Soviet empire.
562
00:43:47,400 --> 00:43:52,880
His project to reintegrate
what he regarded as the
563
00:43:52,880 --> 00:43:55,800
spiritual heartland
of Mother Russia.
564
00:44:03,880 --> 00:44:07,920
As the West frantically looked
for a diplomatic way out,
565
00:44:07,920 --> 00:44:09,840
NATO'S Secretary General
566
00:44:09,840 --> 00:44:12,440
convinced the Russians
to attend a crisis meeting.
567
00:44:15,320 --> 00:44:20,400
It was absolutely clear that
the purpose of the Russian military
568
00:44:20,400 --> 00:44:23,040
build-up was to invade Ukraine.
569
00:44:23,040 --> 00:44:27,240
But of course, plans can be changed,
it's never too late to step back.
570
00:44:29,240 --> 00:44:32,960
There had not been a NATO-Russia
council
571
00:44:32,960 --> 00:44:38,640
since 2019, the main reason
being...
572
00:44:38,640 --> 00:44:44,160
..Russia's claim that we should
not be discussing Ukraine -
573
00:44:44,160 --> 00:44:47,560
while, of course, Ukraine
was an obvious subject for
574
00:44:47,560 --> 00:44:50,160
any dialogue with Russia.
575
00:44:50,160 --> 00:44:52,720
We met in this room,
Russia was sitting down there.
576
00:44:54,520 --> 00:44:57,240
The Russian delegation shared
with us some maps.
577
00:44:57,240 --> 00:45:03,760
And those maps were not depicting
NATO territory in the correct way.
578
00:45:03,760 --> 00:45:07,440
Turkey, Greece, Denmark, Norway,
579
00:45:07,440 --> 00:45:12,120
and other countries were not part of
NATO, according to the Russian maps.
580
00:45:12,120 --> 00:45:15,880
That prompted comments
by some allies that,
581
00:45:15,880 --> 00:45:19,560
"Hey, part of my territory
is just not on the map."
582
00:45:19,560 --> 00:45:21,000
So, that's the...
583
00:45:25,560 --> 00:45:28,800
Deputy Foreign Minister
Grushko represented Russia,
584
00:45:28,800 --> 00:45:31,400
he presented a set of proposals.
585
00:45:31,400 --> 00:45:35,080
One was to ensure
no further NATO enlargement.
586
00:45:35,080 --> 00:45:40,160
The other proposal from Russia was
that NATO should accept to remove
587
00:45:40,160 --> 00:45:42,920
all its troops
and infrastructure from
588
00:45:42,920 --> 00:45:45,200
the eastern part of the alliance.
589
00:45:45,200 --> 00:45:48,840
And I said, "We can discuss arms
control, but we cannot discuss
590
00:45:48,840 --> 00:45:55,080
"a proposal of Russia that will
ban any NATO enlargement."
591
00:45:55,080 --> 00:45:58,400
This is not NATO
aggressively moving east -
592
00:45:58,400 --> 00:46:02,320
this is east and central Europe
wanting, by their own choice,
593
00:46:02,320 --> 00:46:05,320
to be part of NATO.
594
00:46:05,320 --> 00:46:07,080
And it's not an aggressive action,
595
00:46:07,080 --> 00:46:10,000
it's a defensive alliance
defending new members.
596
00:46:29,800 --> 00:46:33,720
I felt the meeting had not gone
as well as we hoped for.
597
00:46:33,720 --> 00:46:37,840
There were no real indications from
the Russian side that they really
598
00:46:37,840 --> 00:46:41,560
wanted to sit down and engage
in a real effort to find
599
00:46:41,560 --> 00:46:42,920
a diplomatic resolution.
600
00:46:53,680 --> 00:46:55,440
With options running out,
601
00:46:55,440 --> 00:46:58,000
Western leaders held a
video conference.
602
00:47:00,320 --> 00:47:04,160
We had one thing that
we could threaten Putin with,
603
00:47:04,160 --> 00:47:07,080
in addition to military
support for Ukraine,
604
00:47:07,080 --> 00:47:08,640
was a package of sanctions.
605
00:47:08,640 --> 00:47:11,000
They had to be absolutely
knockout sanctions.
606
00:47:11,000 --> 00:47:15,800
The problem with that was
hydrocarbons, oil and gas.
607
00:47:15,800 --> 00:47:18,600
And, you know, there was
a difference of opinions
608
00:47:18,600 --> 00:47:20,840
around the table.
609
00:47:20,840 --> 00:47:24,160
An argument that was deployed
particularly by our German friends
610
00:47:24,160 --> 00:47:25,920
was that when it came to sanctions,
611
00:47:25,920 --> 00:47:28,400
you needed creative ambiguity.
612
00:47:28,400 --> 00:47:31,600
I didn't understand that myself,
I've got to be totally honest,
613
00:47:31,600 --> 00:47:36,080
I thought, "Just tell them you'll
cut off Russian oil and gas.
614
00:47:36,080 --> 00:47:38,760
"We're going to sanction every
single one of your oligarchs.
615
00:47:38,760 --> 00:47:40,720
"We're going to impound
your yachts."
616
00:47:40,720 --> 00:47:44,760
And I thought I'd carried
everybody with me,
617
00:47:44,760 --> 00:47:51,000
and Mario Draghi said,
"Look, I'm sorry.
618
00:47:51,000 --> 00:47:55,040
"As Italy, I just have to say
that we cannot do this.
619
00:47:55,040 --> 00:47:58,760
"We cannot dispense with
Russian oil and gas."
620
00:48:06,760 --> 00:48:10,000
In January, Putin attended
the annual memorial
621
00:48:10,000 --> 00:48:11,880
to mark the siege of Leningrad.
622
00:48:13,320 --> 00:48:17,240
Publicly, he continued to maintain
that Russia had no plans
623
00:48:17,240 --> 00:48:18,640
to invade Ukraine.
624
00:48:24,840 --> 00:48:28,040
But a steady stream of Russian
battalions was heading
625
00:48:28,040 --> 00:48:29,440
to the border.
626
00:48:31,160 --> 00:48:35,720
We were seeing increasingly
detailed confirmation about
627
00:48:35,720 --> 00:48:40,640
Russian planning for invasion,
and also about the precision of
628
00:48:40,640 --> 00:48:43,800
their planning for the
political day after, as well.
629
00:48:43,800 --> 00:48:47,040
I arrived in Kyiv and met
with President Zelensky
630
00:48:47,040 --> 00:48:50,280
in his offices, in downtown Kyiv.
631
00:48:51,800 --> 00:48:54,120
President Biden had asked me
to share with him
632
00:48:54,120 --> 00:48:56,520
our most updated intelligence.
633
00:48:56,520 --> 00:48:59,520
Their plan was for
a lightning strike, erm,
634
00:48:59,520 --> 00:49:02,920
from Belarus south into Kyiv itself.
635
00:49:02,920 --> 00:49:06,840
It'd decapitate
the Ukrainian leadership
636
00:49:06,840 --> 00:49:08,880
and install a puppet regime.
637
00:50:10,000 --> 00:50:14,240
I fly into Kyiv, and it's very weird
638
00:50:14,240 --> 00:50:17,280
because the city
is still buzzing.
639
00:50:17,280 --> 00:50:21,360
Volodymyr Zelensky and I had
a long dinner and, you know,
640
00:50:21,360 --> 00:50:24,160
we tried to get to the bottom
of what their strategy was.
641
00:50:24,160 --> 00:50:26,400
And we couldn't get
much out of them.
642
00:50:26,400 --> 00:50:29,600
We should develop our economic
partnership... Yeah.
643
00:50:29,600 --> 00:50:31,480
Talking to our ambassador,
644
00:50:31,480 --> 00:50:36,960
she and I both thought that Zelensky
thought that Putin was bluffing.
645
00:50:36,960 --> 00:50:40,160
But I think we misunderstood
what Zelensky was doing.
646
00:50:40,160 --> 00:50:43,480
If he stood up in a press
conference with me and said,
647
00:50:43,480 --> 00:50:47,000
"Russia is about to invade our
country, Boris Johnson said so,"
648
00:50:47,000 --> 00:50:48,640
it's a disaster.
649
00:50:48,640 --> 00:50:53,200
What happens? Economic meltdown.
650
00:50:53,200 --> 00:50:57,960
Plus, everybody who is remotely
vulnerable to a Russian attack
651
00:50:57,960 --> 00:50:59,840
is going to scarper.
652
00:51:21,040 --> 00:51:24,840
I get back from Kyiv,
and the following day...
653
00:51:24,840 --> 00:51:27,120
..I've got Putin on the blower
again.
654
00:51:27,120 --> 00:51:32,680
And this is a very long call,
and a most extraordinary call.
655
00:51:32,680 --> 00:51:35,040
He was being very, very familiar.
656
00:51:35,040 --> 00:51:38,240
I said to him,
"Look, if you do this,
657
00:51:38,240 --> 00:51:40,960
"it will be an utter catastrophe.
658
00:51:40,960 --> 00:51:45,160
"It will mean a massive package
of Western sanctions.
659
00:51:45,160 --> 00:51:53,000
"It will mean we continue to
intensify our support for Ukraine.
660
00:51:53,000 --> 00:51:57,960
"And it will mean more NATO,
not less NATO, on your borders."
661
00:51:57,960 --> 00:52:00,480
And he said, "You say..."
662
00:52:00,480 --> 00:52:05,360
He said, "Boris, you say that
Ukraine is not going
663
00:52:05,360 --> 00:52:07,800
"to join NATO any time soon,"
664
00:52:07,800 --> 00:52:09,560
he said in English, "any time soon.
665
00:52:09,560 --> 00:52:10,960
"What is any time soon?"
666
00:52:10,960 --> 00:52:15,200
And I said, "Well,
it's not going to join NATO for
667
00:52:15,200 --> 00:52:16,840
"the foreseeable future.
668
00:52:16,840 --> 00:52:19,520
"You know that perfectly well."
669
00:52:19,520 --> 00:52:22,400
It fundamentally wasn't about...
670
00:52:22,400 --> 00:52:25,880
He, sort of, threatened me
at one point and said, you know,
671
00:52:25,880 --> 00:52:28,480
"Boris, I don't want to hurt you,
but with a missile,
672
00:52:28,480 --> 00:52:32,360
"it would only take a minute,"
or something like that, you know?
673
00:52:32,360 --> 00:52:34,240
You know, jolly.
674
00:52:34,240 --> 00:52:42,280
But I think from the very
relaxed tone that he was taking,
675
00:52:42,280 --> 00:52:47,160
the, sort of, air of detachment
that he seemed to have,
676
00:52:47,160 --> 00:52:52,120
he was just playing along with
my attempts to get him to negotiate.
677
00:52:56,720 --> 00:53:00,280
Three days later, Putin was
guest of honour at the opening
678
00:53:00,280 --> 00:53:02,000
ceremony of the Winter Olympics.
679
00:53:03,320 --> 00:53:09,120
There, the Chinese leader joined
him in opposing NATO expansion,
680
00:53:09,120 --> 00:53:13,000
as the two men said there were
"no limits" to the bond
681
00:53:13,000 --> 00:53:14,360
between their countries.
682
00:53:16,560 --> 00:53:21,480
It sent a very strong message
that China now is actually, er,
683
00:53:21,480 --> 00:53:26,400
an even closer partner,
supporter of Russia,
684
00:53:26,400 --> 00:53:32,200
this statement just underlined
the importance of standing up for
685
00:53:32,200 --> 00:53:36,240
the principle of every nation has
the right to choose its own path.
686
00:53:37,920 --> 00:53:41,080
The following week,
Britain's Defence Minister
687
00:53:41,080 --> 00:53:45,280
set off on a last-ditch
mission to avoid war.
688
00:53:45,280 --> 00:53:50,720
We landed at Moscow, we all had
to be tested for Covid.
689
00:53:50,720 --> 00:53:53,960
Remarkably, our interpreter
failed her test,
690
00:53:53,960 --> 00:53:56,240
even though she seemed
to have passed on the plane.
691
00:53:56,240 --> 00:53:57,280
But you know!
692
00:54:04,720 --> 00:54:08,480
We were greeted by Minister Shoigu,
the Minister of Defence,
693
00:54:08,480 --> 00:54:11,880
and the Chief of the General Staff,
Gerazimov, a very powerful figure
694
00:54:11,880 --> 00:54:14,720
in the Russian military,
very close to President Putin.
695
00:54:15,800 --> 00:54:19,680
I took deliberately
my Chief of Defence Staff,
696
00:54:19,680 --> 00:54:23,040
but I also took my commander
of the field army with me.
697
00:54:23,040 --> 00:54:26,120
It was important to signal
to the Russians that, you know,
698
00:54:26,120 --> 00:54:29,280
if you do these things, the people
who will be dealing with that
699
00:54:29,280 --> 00:54:31,840
response are sitting in this room.
700
00:54:31,840 --> 00:54:33,680
Thank you, Minister Shoigu,
701
00:54:33,680 --> 00:54:38,240
and thank you for agreeing
to meet at this time.
702
00:54:38,240 --> 00:54:46,440
A time none of us wish to be in
an atmosphere of insecurity,
703
00:54:46,440 --> 00:54:50,640
anxiousness, and indeed,
instability.
704
00:54:50,640 --> 00:54:52,440
It benefits neither of us.
705
00:54:52,440 --> 00:54:55,000
So, the assumptions that
they had made were -
706
00:54:55,000 --> 00:54:57,600
the Ukrainians won't fight,
707
00:54:57,600 --> 00:55:01,520
the Russian armed forces are
close to invincible,
708
00:55:01,520 --> 00:55:05,800
that the international community
will fracture, and in fact,
709
00:55:05,800 --> 00:55:07,720
that the Ukrainians
will welcome them.
710
00:55:07,720 --> 00:55:11,080
And I remember saying to Minister
Shoigu that they will fight,
711
00:55:11,080 --> 00:55:15,360
and he said, "My mother is
Ukrainian, they won't!"
712
00:55:15,360 --> 00:55:17,920
He also said he had
no intention of invading.
713
00:55:17,920 --> 00:55:22,760
That would be "vranyo" in
the Russian language.
714
00:55:22,760 --> 00:55:24,480
Vranyo, I think, is a, sort of,
715
00:55:24,480 --> 00:55:26,960
demonstration of bullying
or strength, which is,
716
00:55:26,960 --> 00:55:30,040
"I'm going to lie to you.
You know I'm lying.
717
00:55:30,040 --> 00:55:33,080
"I know you know I'm lying,
and I'm still going to lie to you."
718
00:55:34,360 --> 00:55:35,400
He knew.
719
00:55:35,400 --> 00:55:37,600
He knew I knew, and I knew he knew.
720
00:55:37,600 --> 00:55:39,880
But I think it was about saying,
721
00:55:39,880 --> 00:55:41,280
"I'm powerful".
722
00:55:42,760 --> 00:55:47,640
It was the fairly chilling,
but direct lie of what they were
723
00:55:47,640 --> 00:55:52,480
not going to do, er,
that I think to me confirmed
724
00:55:52,480 --> 00:55:53,720
they were going to do it.
725
00:55:55,040 --> 00:55:59,280
I remember as we were walking out,
General Gerasimov said,
726
00:55:59,280 --> 00:56:02,520
"Never again will we be humiliated.
727
00:56:02,520 --> 00:56:06,400
"We used to be the fourth army in
the world, we're now number two.
728
00:56:06,400 --> 00:56:09,000
"It's now America and us."
729
00:56:09,000 --> 00:56:16,200
And there, in that minute,
was that sense of potentially why.
730
00:58:03,360 --> 00:58:05,880
I take the call in
the office in Number Ten.
731
00:58:05,880 --> 00:58:08,120
And Zelensky's very, very calm.
732
00:58:08,120 --> 00:58:11,360
But he tells me, you know,
they're attacking everywhere.
733
00:58:11,360 --> 00:58:12,920
"The tanks are coming in everywhere,
734
00:58:12,920 --> 00:58:16,040
"we're doing our best, but it's,
you know, they're huge numbers" -
735
00:58:16,040 --> 00:58:18,160
and it just sounds appalling.
736
00:58:18,160 --> 00:58:22,200
But I say that, you know...
737
00:58:22,200 --> 00:58:24,520
.."For God's sake, find a way
of looking after yourself.
738
00:58:24,520 --> 00:58:27,560
"And, you know, if there's anything
we can do to help you find
739
00:58:27,560 --> 00:58:31,160
"somewhere to be safe,
then we want to do it." And...
740
00:58:31,160 --> 00:58:33,000
..he doesn't take me up
on that offer.
741
00:58:33,000 --> 00:58:35,480
And, you know, he heroically
stayed where he was.
61039
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